英國石油 (BP) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to bp's Third Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. I'm Craig Marshall, bp's Head of Investor Relations, and I'm here today with Murray Auchincloss, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家早安，歡迎觀看 bp 2022 年第三季業績發表會。我是 bp 投資者關係主管 Craig Marshall，今天我和我們的財務長 Murray Auchincloss 一起來到這裡。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings.

在今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括那些涉及我們的估計、計劃和期望的陳述。由於我們在這張投影片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中註意到的因素，實際結果和結果可能會存在重大差異。

Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

更多詳情請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

I will now hand over to Murray.

現在我將把任務交給穆雷。

Thanks, Craig. Good morning, everyone. We are here today to report on another quarter of financial and strategic delivery. But first, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic incident at the Toledo refinery, where 2 of our employees sadly lost their lives following a fire. Our thoughts go to their families, to the team at Toledo and to the local community. Safety remains our #1 priority, and the refinery remains offline as we work to understand the root causes of this incident.

謝謝，克雷格。大家早安。我們今天在這裡報告另一個季度的財務和策略交付。但首先，我想花點時間承認托萊多煉油廠發生的悲慘事件，我們的兩名員工在火災中不幸喪生。我們向他們的家人、托萊多團隊和當地社區表示慰問。安全仍然是我們的第一要務，在我們努力了解這件事的根本原因時，煉油廠仍處於離線狀態。

Turning to third quarter results. We remain focused on strengthening bp. During the third quarter, we delivered $8.2 billion of underlying earnings and operating cash flow of $8.3 billion, including a working capital build of $6.2 billion. We continue to execute against our disciplined financial frame, reducing net debt for the 10th consecutive quarter to reach $22 billion and announcing a further $2.5 billion share buyback.

轉向第三季業績。我們仍然專注於加強英國石油公司。第三季度，我們實現了 82 億美元的基本收益和 83 億美元的營運現金流，其中包括 62 億美元的營運資本建設。我們繼續按照嚴格的財務框架執行任務，連續第 10 季將淨債務減少至 220 億美元，並宣布進一步回購 25 億美元的股票。

And we have momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company. Since reporting second quarter results, we have accelerated our bioenergy strategy, agreeing to acquire Archaea Energy, a leading U.S. biogas company; advanced our growth strategy in EV charging and convenience through our collaboration with Hertz; and continue to high grade our hydrocarbons business.

我們向綜合能源公司轉型的勢頭強勁。自從公佈第二季業績以來，我們加快了生物能源策略，同意收購美國領先的沼氣公司Archaea Energy；透過與赫茲的合作，推進了我們在電動車充電和便利性方面的成長策略；並繼續提升我們的碳氫化合物業務。

I will provide more detail on our results and strategic progress in a moment. But first, let me turn to the macro environment, starting with gas prices, where we continue to see significant volatility.

我稍後將提供有關我們的成果和策略進展的更多詳細資訊。但首先，讓我談談宏觀環境，首先是天然氣價格，我們繼續看到大幅波動。

During the quarter, reduced Russian pipeline imports led to sharp increases in both spot and future prices in Europe with the quarter average TTF price rising by 92%. Prices also rose in the U.S. as summer cooling demand offset the loss of Freeport LNG exports.

本季度，俄羅斯管道進口減少導致歐洲現貨和期貨價格大幅上漲，季度平均 TTF 價格上漲 92%。由於夏季需求降溫抵銷了自由港液化天然氣出口的損失，美國的價格也上漲。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect gas prices to remain elevated and volatile, with the outlook heavily dependent on Russian pipeline flows and the severity of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

展望第四季度，我們預計天然氣價格將保持在高位且波動，前景很大程度上取決於俄羅斯管道流量和北半球冬季的嚴酷程度。

Moving to oil prices. During the third quarter, Brent averaged $101 per barrel, down from $114 per barrel in the second quarter. This reflected increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and the continued COVID-related lockdowns in China. Despite this uncertainty, we expect oil prices to remain elevated in the fourth quarter given the backdrop of low inventory levels, OPEC+ supply cuts, limited supply growth and uncertainty around Russian exports.

轉向石油價格。第三季布蘭特原油均價為每桶 101 美元，低於第二季的每桶 114 美元。這反映出經濟前景的不確定性增加以及中國與新冠病毒相關的持續封鎖。儘管存在這種不確定性，但鑑於庫存水準較低、OPEC+減產、供應成長有限以及俄羅斯出口的不確定性，我們預計第四季度油價將保持在高位。

Turning to refining. Global margins decreased to average around $35.50 per barrel during the third quarter and are expected to remain at elevated levels during the fourth quarter due to lower stocks and sanctioning of Russian crude and product.

轉向精煉。第三季全球利潤率平均下降至每桶 35.50 美元左右，由於庫存減少以及俄羅斯原油和產品受到製裁，預計第四季將保持在較高水準。

Moving to results. In the third quarter, we reported a loss of $2.2 billion. After post-tax adjusting items of $8.1 billion and an inventory holding loss of $2.2 billion, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $8.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion last quarter. Pretax adjusting items included fair value accounting effects of $10.1 billion primarily due to the continued increase in forward gas prices.

轉向結果。第三季度，我們報告虧損 22 億美元。在扣除 81 億美元的稅後調整項目和 22 億美元的庫存持有損失後，我們報告的基本重置成本利潤為 82 億美元，而上季為 85 億美元。稅前調整項目包括 101 億美元的公允價值會計影響，主要是由於遠期天然氣價格持續上漲。

As a reminder, under IFRS, reported earnings include the mark-to-market value of the hedges used to risk manage LNG contracts, but not of the contracts themselves. In the underlying result, the fair value accounting effect adjust for this mismatch by also recognizing changes in the value of the LNG contracts that are being risk managed.

需要提醒的是，根據《國際財務報告準則》，報告的收益包括用於風險管理液化天然氣合約的對沖的按市值計價的價值，但不包括合約本身的價值。在基本結果中，公允價值會計影響也透過確認正在風險管理的液化天然氣合約價值的變化來調整這種不匹配。

Turning to business group performance. Compared to the second quarter, in gas and low carbon energy, the result benefited from an exceptional gas marketing and trading performance, higher production and higher gas realizations.

轉向業務集團的業績。與第二季相比，在天然氣和低碳能源領域，這一結果得益於出色的天然氣行銷和交易表現、更高的產量和更高的天然氣變現。

In oil production and operations, the result reflects lower liquids realizations and the impact of converting bp's interest in Angola to an equity accounted entity. This was partially offset by higher gas realizations.

在石油生產和營運方面，這一結果反映了液體變現量的減少以及將 bp 在安哥拉的權益轉換為權益會計實體的影響。這被較高的天然氣實現量部分抵銷。

In customers and products, the product result reflects lower realized refining margins and oil trading returning to an average contribution compared to an exceptional result in the second quarter. The customers result benefited from an improved retail midstream and B2B and aviation performance, partially offset by higher input costs, notably in Castrol.

在客戶和產品方面，產品表現反映了與第二季度的出色業績相比，已實現的煉油利潤率下降，石油交易恢復到平均貢獻。客戶受惠於零售中游、B2B 和航空績效的改善，但部分被較高的投入成本（尤其是嘉實多）所抵銷。

Turning to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $8.3 billion in the third quarter. This included a working capital build of $6.2 billion after adjusting for inventory holding losses and fair value accounting effects, mainly driven by the impact of the increase in forward gas prices on bp's LNG portfolio.

轉向現金流。第三季營運現金流為 83 億美元。其中包括在調整庫存持有損失和公平價值會計影響後增加了 62 億美元的營運資本，主要是由於遠期天然氣價格上漲對 bp 液化天然氣投資組合的影響。

Looking forward, the outlook for working capital remains subject to a number of factors, including price. However, following the build in working capital as a result of rising gas prices since 2021, we now expect the working capital movement to include a release of around $7 billion weighted toward the second half of 2023 and into 2024 primarily as LNG cargoes are delivered.

展望未來，營運資金前景仍受到包括價格在內的多種因素的影響。然而，隨著自 2021 年以來天然氣價格上漲導致營運資金增加，我們現在預計營運資金變動將包括在 2023 年下半年和 2024 年釋放約 70 億美元，主要是由於液化天然氣貨物的交付。

Turning back to the third quarter. Capital expenditure was $3.2 billion, and disposal proceeds were $600 million. With $2.5 billion of proceeds received by the end of the third quarter, we now expect to realize slightly over $3 billion during 2022, above the prior $2 billion to $3 billion guidance range.

回到第三季。資本支出為 32 億美元，處分收益為 6 億美元。截至第三季末收到的收益為 25 億美元，我們現在預計 2022 年將實現略高於 30 億美元，高於先前 20 億至 30 億美元的指導範圍。

During the quarter, we repurchased $2.9 billion of shares, and the $3.5 billion program announced for second quarter 2022 results was completed on the 27th of October. And net debt fell for the 10th consecutive quarter to reach $22 billion.

本季度，我們回購了 29 億美元的股票，2022 年第二季業績公佈的 35 億美元計畫已於 10 月 27 日完成。淨債務連續第 10 季下降，達到 220 億美元。

Moving to our disciplined financial frame. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend. This is underpinned by an average cash balance point of around $40 per barrel through 2025. Our second priority is to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating, and we intend to allocate 40% of 2022 surplus cash flow to further strengthening the balance sheet.

轉向我們嚴格的財務框架。我們的首要任務仍然是彈性股利。到 2025 年，平均現金平衡點約為每桶 40 美元。

Third and fourth, we will continue to invest with discipline into the transition and resilient hydrocarbons. Our capital expenditure guidance for 2022, including inorganics, is now expected to be around $15.5 billion if the acquisition of Archaea Energy completes before year-end. And our medium-term guidance is unchanged at $14 billion to $16 billion per annum.

第三和第四，我們將繼續嚴格投資轉型型和彈性碳氫化合物。如果在年底前完成對 Archaea Energy 的收購，我們對 2022 年（包括無機材料）的資本支出指引預計約為 155 億美元。我們的中期指引保持每年 140 億至 160 億美元不變。

Fifth, we remain committed to returning 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow through share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. Against the authority granted at bp's 2022 AGM to repurchase up to 1.95 billion shares, bp has repurchased 677 million shares at the 31st of October. And with third quarter surplus cash flow of $3.5 billion, we intend to execute a buyback of $2.5 billion prior to reporting fourth quarter results.

第五，我們仍致力於透過股票回購返還 2022 年盈餘現金流的 60%，前提是維持強勁的投資等級信用評等。儘管 bp 2022 年年度股東大會授予回購最多 19.5 億股股票的權力，但 bp 已於 10 月 31 日回購了 6.77 億股股票。鑑於第三季盈餘現金流為 35 億美元，我們打算在報告第四季業績之前執行 25 億美元的回購。

This brings total announced share buybacks from 2022 surplus cash flow to $8.5 billion, equivalent to 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow year-to-date. In setting the buyback, the Board will continue to take into account factors, including the cumulative level of, and outlook for, surplus cash flow.

這使得 2022 年盈餘現金流宣布的股票回購總額達到 85 億美元，相當於 2022 年年初至今盈餘現金流的 60%。在設定回購時，董事會將繼續考慮因素，包括剩餘現金流的累積水準和前景。

Turning to bp's strategic progress, where we have real momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company. Within resilient hydrocarbons, we are accelerating the delivery of our strategy in bioenergy, 1 of our 5 transition growth engines.

談到bp的策略進展，我們在向綜合能源公司轉型方面擁有真正的動力。在彈性碳氫化合物領域，我們正在加速實施生物能源策略，生物能源是我們的 5 個轉型成長引擎之一。

In October, we announced an agreement to acquire Archaea Energy, a leading U.S. biogas company. This transaction, accommodated within our disciplined financial frame, will deepen our participation in the rapidly growing biogas sector, add distinctive value as we integrate biogas supply from Archaea Energy with our experienced trading business and global customer relationships and reduce carbon intensity, supporting our Aim 3.

10 月，我們宣布達成協議，收購美國領先的沼氣公司 Archaea Energy。這項交易符合我們嚴格的財務框架，將加深我們對快速成長的沼氣產業的參與，透過將Archaea Energy 的沼氣供應與我們經驗豐富的貿易業務和全球客戶關係相結合，增加獨特的價值，並降低碳強度，支持我們的目標 3 。

And also in resilient hydrocarbons, we have continued to high grade our portfolio. We have completed the formation of Azul Energy, our new Angolan joint venture with Eni; taken final investment decision on a Cypre gas project offshore Trinidad, a subsea tieback to existing infrastructure; and agreed to divest our Algerian assets to Eni.

在具有彈性的碳氫化合物領域，我們也持續提升我們的產品組合。我們已完成與埃尼集團在安哥拉的新合資企業 Azul Energy 的組成；對特立尼達海上 Cypre 天然氣項目做出最終投資決定，該項目是現有基礎設施的海底回接；並同意將我們的阿爾及利亞資產剝離給埃尼集團。

In convenience and mobility, we are progressing our strategy in the EV charging and convenience transitions growth engines. In North America, we are advancing our fleet strategy, announcing plans to collaborate with Hertz to install a network of EV charging solutions for Hertz and its customers powered by bp pulse. Hertz is investing to create the largest electric rental fleet in North America, and we look forward to working with them.

在便利性和移動性方面，我們正在推動電動車充電和便利性轉型成長引擎的策略。在北美，我們正在推進我們的車隊策略，宣布計劃與赫茲合作，為赫茲及其客戶安裝由 bppulse 提供支援的電動車充電解決方案網路。赫茲正在投資創建北美最大的電動租賃車隊，我們期待與他們合作。

We have expanded our partnership with leading retailer REWE in Germany to install fast, reliable, convenient charging at their sites.

我們擴大了與德國領先零售商 REWE 的合作關係，在他們的現場安裝快速、可靠、方便的充電設施。

And in China, we signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Avatr Technology to accelerate the development of an ultrafast charging network in China.

在中國，我們與Avatr Technology簽署了戰略合作協議，以加速中國超快充電網路的發展。

Finally, we have continued to advance our strategy to create integrated low-carbon energy hubs. In Australia, we have closed a deal to take a 40.5% stake in Asian Renewables Energy Hub. And our 2 bp-led projects in the U.K., H2Teesside and Net Zero Teesside Power, were shortlisted in Phase 2 of the U.K. government's cluster sequencing process for support of CCUS.

最後，我們持續推動創建綜合低碳能源中心的策略。在澳大利亞，我們已完成收購亞洲再生能源中心 40.5% 股權的交易。我們在英國主導的 2 個 bp 專案 H2Teesside 和 Net Zero Teesside Power 已入圍英國政府支援 CCUS 的集群排序流程第二階段。

To summarize, today's results show that bp is performing while transforming. We are strengthening the company, we are delivering on our disciplined financial frame, underpinning our commitment to shareholder distributions. We have real momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company, and we remain focused on delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

總而言之，今天的結果顯示英國石油公司正在轉型的同時取得進展。我們正在增強公司實力，我們正在實現嚴格的財務框架，以鞏固我們對股東分配的承諾。我們在向綜合能源公司轉型方面擁有真正的動力，我們仍然專注於為股東創造長期價值。

Thank you for your time. Now let's turn to your questions.

感謝您抽出時間。現在我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay. Thank you again, everybody, for listening. We're going to take questions now. (Operator Instructions) And I think we'll turn to the U.S. for the first question and to Paul Cheng at Scotiabank.

好的。再次感謝大家的聆聽。我們現在要回答問題。 （操作員說明）我想我們將向美國詢問第一個問題，並向豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 詢問。

Murray, can you tell us what is your estimate for the EU windfall profit tax and also the U.K. windfall profit tax for this year granted that the EU windfall profit tax probably don't have all the details?

Murray，您能否告訴我們您對今年歐盟暴利稅和英國暴利稅的估計是多少，因為歐盟暴利稅可能沒有所有細節？

And the second question is that the nature of the Mad Dog commission issue, can you elaborate on that?

第二個問題是瘋狗委員會問題的性質，你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Great, Paul. Thanks for the questions. Let's start off, maybe just stepping back on taxes for 1 minute before I answer your questions. We understand it's a very difficult time for our society right now, and we understand why people focus on our global profits. And we understand the challenges that governments face as they move through this very difficult time.

太棒了，保羅。感謝您的提問。讓我們開始吧，在我回答你的問題之前，也許先退一步討論稅收問題一分鐘。我們知道現在對我們的社會來說是一個非常困難的時期，我們也理解為什麼人們會關注我們的全球利潤。我們了解各國政府在度過這個非常困難的時期時所面臨的挑戰。

As a corporation, we're really focused on 2 things: first, investing into the energy system today; and starting the transition of the new energy system. And of course, we pay our taxes, as you asked about.

作為一家公司，我們真正關注兩件事：第一，投資當今的能源系統；啟動新能源體系轉型。當然，正如您所問的，我們繳稅。

So on to the specifics of the taxes, you'll see in the press that we announced, the U.K. windfall profits tax today, we announced for 2022 what we're seeing. To remind you, the tax rate in the U.K. is 65% in the North Sea. We will be paying $2.5 billion this year, including $800 million on the 20% uplift that was enacted a while back. So that's $2.5 billion. And that's -- the $800 million is only on 7 months of applications so far.

關於稅收的具體細節，您將在我們今天宣布的英國暴利利潤稅的新聞中看到，我們宣布了 2022 年的情況。提醒您一下，英國北海的稅率為 65%。今年我們將支付 25 億美元，其中包括不久前頒布的 20% 的 8 億美元上調。也就是 25 億美元。也就是說，到目前為止，8 億美元的申請只花了 7 個月的時間。

In the EU, I'm afraid I can't give you an estimate. It's just not certain enough yet. I do think I'll say that our profits in the North Sea are about 15% -- or sorry, our profits in the U.K. are about 15% of global profits. And our profits in the EU are only 5%. So that will give you a sense of magnitude. So I hope that helps on the tax questions.

在歐盟，恐怕我無法給你一個估計。只是還不夠確定。我確實認為我們在北海的利潤約為 15%——或者抱歉，我們在英國的利潤約為全球利潤的 15%。而我們在歐盟的利潤只有5%。所以這會給你一種規模感。所以我希望這對稅務問題有所幫助。

And then on Mad Dog Phase 2, just commissioning issues, we talked about issues with the [riser] last time around. We're still working our way through that, and we'll update you in February as to when we expect to see startup next year. Thanks, Paul.

然後在瘋狗第二階段，只是調試問題，我們上次討論了[立管]的問題。我們仍在努力解決這個問題，我們將在二月向您通報明年預計何時啟動的最新情況。謝謝，保羅。

Thanks, Paul. We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein.

謝謝，保羅。我們將回答伯恩斯坦的奧斯克林特提出的下一個問題。

Murray, the -- I saw the White House had a statement last couple of weeks ago in the Clean American Manufacturing that called out Lightsource bp and all the gigawatts they're doing and all the investment levels and local content. I'm just curious if you think that, that might help in any way as we weighed into a potential U.S. windfall tax discussion.

莫瑞，我看到白宮幾週前在清潔美國製造業中發表了一份聲明，其中指出了 Lightsource bp 及其正在開發的所有千兆瓦項目以及所有投資水平和本地內容。我只是好奇你是否認為這可能對我們在考慮潛在的美國暴利稅討論時有所幫助。

And ultimately, could you just let us know how Lightsource bp is performing in terms of installations, cost control and really getting to that double-digit return territory, please? That's the first one.

最後，您能否讓我們知道 Lightsource bp 在安裝、成本控制以及真正達到兩位數回報的表現如何？這是第一個。

Secondly, just on the working capital release. $7 billion seems to reverse over what looks to me like quite an extended period of time into 2024. Is that normal? Or are you selling further -- LNG further across the strip? And maybe a part linked -- I mean a lot of moving pieces, but if a potential gas price cap here in Europe, does that have any unintended consequences for this positioning, please?

其次，就營運資金釋放而言。在我看來，到 2024 年的相當長一段時間內，70 億美元似乎會出現逆轉。或者您正在進一步銷售 - 液化天然氣？也許有一部分是相關的——我的意思是有很多變動的部分，但如果歐洲潛在的汽油價格上限，這是否會對這種定位產生任何意想不到的後果？

Yes. Great. Thanks, Os. Starting on Lightsource bp, the entity is up and humming, 5.4 gigawatts developed. They've got a pipeline of 23 gigawatts. They've hired 600 people now. I think they're operating in greater than 14 countries now.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，奧斯。從 Lightsource bp 開始，該實體正在蓬勃發展，已開發出 5.4 吉瓦的電力。他們擁有 23 吉瓦的管道。他們現在已經僱用了 600 名員工。我認為他們現在在超過 14 個國家/地區開展業務。

If you take a look at company's house, you can see the financial reports for 2021. That's a bit of a lag, obviously, but you can see that's now published, where revenue is up 88% and EBITDA is up 228% year-on-year.

如果你看一下公司的房子，你可以看到 2021 年的財務報告。

So performance is pretty solid, Os, if I'm honest. Returns remain in line with our external guidance as well as inflation hits the solar side. We are seeing PPA uplift. I think the last time I looked, we're seeing 10% uplift on solar PPAs.

所以說實話，Os，性能非常穩定。報酬率仍符合我們的外部指引，通膨也影響了太陽能領域。我們看到 PPA 有所上升。我想上次我查看時，我們看到太陽能購電協議增加了 10%。

So we remain very happy with Lightsource bp. And just congratulations go to Nick Boyle and team for the fantastic work that they're doing.

因此，我們對 Lightsource bp 仍然非常滿意。恭喜 Nick Boyle 和團隊所做的出色工作。

On the working capital release, we're just trying to provide you guys with some guidance about how the working capital will unwind. Obviously, we've had a big build this quarter. It's principally related to the derivative positions that we have on the hedge exchange.

關於營運資金的釋放，我們只是想為大家提供一些如何釋放營運資金的指導。顯然，我們本季取得了巨大的進展。它主要與我們在對沖交易所擁有的衍生性商品部位有關。

And the way to think about it is we have a 14 million tonne per annum portfolio right now, and it's growing pretty significantly over the next few years. You'll remember our tagline of 25 by '25, I'm sure, Os, at my age, it's helpful to have those kind of taglines that I can remember easily. 30 by '30 was brilliant as well.

思考這個問題的方式是，我們目前每年擁有 1,400 萬噸的投資組合，並且在未來幾年內將大幅成長。你會記得我們的口號“25 by '25”，我確信，Os，在我這個年紀，擁有那些我可以輕鬆記住的口號很有幫助。 30 由 '30 也很精彩。

So we've got 14.4 MTPA now that we're trading. We've got -- when Freeport comes back online, that's another 4.4 MTPA. Coral has got 3.4 MTPA. Venture, 2 MTPA. Tortue, 2.4 MTPA. So we can touch and feel that wave of LNG that's now coming. And obviously, we risk manage these things as they get closer and closer.

現在我們的交易量為 14.4 MTPA。當 Freeport 重新上線時，我們已經得到了另一個 4.4 MTPA。珊瑚的 MTPA 為 3.4。風險投資，2 MTPA。托圖，2.4 MTPA。所以我們可以觸摸並感受到即將到來的液化天然氣浪潮。顯然，隨著這些事情越來越接近，我們會對其進行風險管理。

And so with that very large build-out, we're pretty clear that the working capital flow is going to follow the ramp-up inside these LNG contracts. And we've carefully managed the position, both on the OTC and the derivatives, to ensure that we can lock in that profit from the last quarter. And that's why we're disclosing what we're disclosing.

因此，隨著如此大規模的擴建，我們非常清楚，營運資金流量將隨著這些液化天然氣合約的增加而增加。我們仔細管理了場外交易和衍生性商品的頭寸，以確保我們能夠鎖定上個季度的利潤。這就是為什麼我們要揭露我們所揭露的內容。

Now I'll just give one last caveat, craig would caution me. Working capital is incredibly volatile, and it moves all over the place given the scale of our business. But we were just trying to give you a sense of what might happen with the LNG book itself when we give that guidance. I hope that helps, Os.

現在我要提出最後一個警告，克雷格會警告我。營運資金的波動性非常大，而且考慮到我們的業務規模，它會到處流動。但我們只是想讓您了解當我們提供指導時，液化天然氣書籍本身可能會發生什麼。我希望這有幫助，奧斯。

Thanks, Os. We'll take the next question from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

謝謝，奧斯。我們將回答 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 提出的下一個問題。

I have one on the distribution framework. And when you put out your -- this framework, you probably didn't envisage the kind of environments we're seeing this year, and you've clearly benefited very consistently across oil and gas trading. But you do have some of the limitations on the buybacks. You can only buy 10% of your equity each year, and there's obviously the market -- these limits on a daily basis.

我有一個關於分發框架的。當你推出這個框架時，你可能沒有預見到我們今年看到的那種環境，而且你顯然在石油和天然氣交易中持續受益。但回購確實有一些限制。你每年只能買 10% 的股票，而且顯然市場每天都有這些限制。

So if I think about your underlying cash flow, excluding the working capital build, and I always think about how the business is performing, then it would suggest a buyback number, which is actually much larger than you're actually able to execute.

因此，如果我考慮您的基本現金流（不包括營運資金建設），並且我總是考慮業務表現如何，那麼它會建議回購數量，這實際上比您實際能夠執行的要大得多。

So the question is, as you're looking forward, how are you thinking about the distribution framework, particularly as the balance sheet will continue to improve quite rapidly? Some of your peers have talked about special dividends and so on. So just to get your thoughts on that.

所以問題是，當您展望未來時，您如何考慮分配框架，特別是在資產負債表將繼續快速改善的情況下？你們的一些同業談到了特別股息等等。所以只是想了解一下您對此的想法。

And then the second question is on the trading beat. It's quite hard to ascertain the various elements of what goes into your trading business. But is there any way you can break down sort of how much or contribution of domestic U.S. gas trading power and then LNG? Any incremental color on that would be very helpful.

第二個問題是關於交易節奏。確定您的交易業務的各個要素是相當困難的。但有沒有什麼方法可以細分美國國內天然氣貿易力量和液化天然氣的多少或貢獻？任何增量顏色都會非常有幫助。

Great. Thanks, Biraj. So on distribution framework, first, inside the stock exchange announcement, we saw that there were concerns about our capacity to do our 2022 program. So on the second page of the SCA, we did talk about how much of our program we've completed so far. So 677 million shares completed through October 31, with an annual capacity of 1.95 billion shares. So we don't have any concerns with the upcoming 3 quarters.

偉大的。謝謝，比拉傑。因此，在分配框架方面，首先，在證券交易所公告中，我們看到人們對我們執行 2022 年計畫的能力感到擔憂。因此，在 SCA 的第二頁上，我們確實討論了到目前為止我們已經完成了多少項目。截至10月31日，已完成發行6.77億股，年發行量為19.5億股。所以我們對接下來的三個季度沒有任何擔憂。

Then as we think about our frame moving forward, I suppose I'll retreat back to our 5 priorities. You know what they are, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The fifth priority is obviously what we do with surplus cash flow. And we've said 60% of surplus cash flow will be through share buybacks. When we determine that, we look not only at the accumulated surplus, but we also look forward at what we think the surplus will be in the future.

然後，當我們思考我們的框架向前發展時，我想我會回到我們的 5 個優先事項。你知道它們是什麼，1、2、3、4、5。我們說過 60% 的盈餘現金流將透過股票回購來實現。當我們確定這一點時，我們不僅關注累積的盈餘，而且還展望我們認為未來的盈餘會是多少。

I think as you look forward at our operations, Biraj, we're moving into a very strong time period. We should have Mad Dog Phase 2, Tangguh Train 3; Mauritania, Senegal coming online. At the same time that we have all these LNG build-outs that I've just talked about, where we've got offtake contracts, but we don't deploy the capital, so Freeport, Coral, Venture, Tortue, et cetera.

比拉吉，我認為當你展望我們的營運時，我們正在進入一個非常強勁的時期。我們應該有Mad Dog第二期，Tangguh Train 3；茅利塔尼亞、塞內加爾上線。同時，我們擁有我剛才談到的所有這些液化天然氣擴建項目，我們有承購合同，但我們不部署資本，所以 Freeport、Coral、Venture、Tortue 等。

That suggests there's some fairly strong earnings momentum, all else being equal, over the next few years. And far be it for me to suggest the share price would go up, but I would imagine the share price would go up as we start to see that type of earnings growth over the next 2 or 3 years.

這表明，在其他條件相同的情況下，未來幾年將出現相當強勁的獲利動能。我絕對不會建議股價會上漲，但我認為，當我們在未來兩三年內開始看到這種類型的獲利成長時，股價會上漲。

So I think for our part, we're fine with buyback as it is now. We don't see any risks with it. We're looking forward to continued strong performance as we move forward over the next few years. And I think we'll be fine on buybacks.

所以我認為就我們而言，我們對現在的回購沒有意見。我們認為它沒有任何風險。我們期待在未來幾年繼續取得強勁的業績。我認為我們的回購不會有問題。

Now last thing I'd point out is you -- we have guided at $60 that we'll do $4 billion a year. And what we said is that the rules of thumb work well up to the $100 space that we've encountered so far. So I think that gives you a pretty decent idea of how we think about buybacks when you use our rules of thumb and you look at our guidance around $4 billion a year at $60. Hope that helps, Biraj. Thank you.

現在我要指出的最後一件事是你——我們的目標是 60 美元，我們每年將實現 40 億美元。我們所說的是，經驗法則在我們迄今為止遇到的 100 美元空間內都適用。因此，我認為，當您使用我們的經驗法則並查看我們每年約 40 億美元（約 60 美元）的指導時，這會讓您對我們如何考慮回購有一個相當不錯的了解。希望有幫助，比拉吉。謝謝。

I think, Biraj, you had a second question on trading.

我想，Biraj，你還有關於交易的第二個問題。

Biraj, could you remind me on your trading question?

Biraj，您能提醒我您的交易問題嗎？

Yes. So just the sources of the trading beat, how much -- if we think about domestic gas trading, power trading and then LNG, any incremental color on the split or color would be helpful.

是的。因此，交易節拍的來源、多少——如果我們考慮國內天然氣交易、電力交易，然後是液化天然氣，任何關於分割或顏色的增量顏色都會有所幫助。

I think it's a pretty ratable business in North America that they just gradually grow over time. I think it probably makes up 50% of an average quarter would be a way to think about it. And then when you see exceptional swings, it's generally inside the LNG portfolio. Biraj, that's probably about all I can give you.

我認為這在北美是一項相當值得評價的業務，隨著時間的推移，它們會逐漸成長。我認為它可能佔平均季度的 50%，這是一種思考方式。然後，當您看到異常波動時，通常是在液化天然氣投資組合內。 Biraj，這可能就是我能給你的全部了。

And I think, Biraj, another way to think about it is we obviously had an average trading contribution in the second quarter. That was with Freeport offline for part of it, which is obviously well documented.

我認為，比拉吉，另一種思考方式是我們在第二季的交易貢獻顯然是平均的。其中一部分是自由港離線的，這顯然是有據可查的。

As you look to the third quarter, we've obviously given guidance around volumes as we look ahead. You can see realizations, and we've described gas trading as exceptional. So I think to get a sense of that, you could probably go back and look at the segment, take a view on volumes realizations and compare 2Q to 3Q to get a sense, just as a way into it, as you try and sort of correlate our superlatives, for choice of a better word.

當你展望第三季時，我們顯然已經就未來的銷售給出了指引。您可以看到實現，我們將天然氣交易描述為特殊的。因此，我認為要了解這一點，您可能可以回去查看該細分市場，了解銷量實現情況，並將第二季度與第三季度進行比較以了解情況，就像您嘗試並進行某種程度的了解一樣將我們的最高級關聯起來，以選擇更好的字。

Okay. Thanks, Biraj. We'll take the next question from Alastair Syme.

好的。謝謝，比拉傑。我們將回答阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆的下一個問題。

Murray, just for sake of clarity, when you talk about average and exceptional, I think you've got these words, you've used, I think, for gas and oil trading. Are these referenced versus their own history or against each other? So in other words, does an exceptional trading profit in gas had the same threshold? Is it exceptional trading profit in oil?

Murray，為了清楚起見，當您談論平均和特殊時，我認為您已經使用了這些詞，我認為您已經在天然氣和石油交易中使用過。這些參考文獻是與他們自己的歷史相對照還是相互對立？換句話說，天然氣的異常交易利潤是否具有相同的門檻？石油交易利潤是否異常豐厚？

And then my follow-up question was just on the gas business itself. I'm just interested if you're getting any sort of feedback from customers about the affordability of gas. And any general comments on that would be useful.

然後我的後續問題只是關於天然氣業務本身。我只是感興趣您是否從客戶那裡得到有關天然氣負擔能力的任何反饋。對此的任何一般性評論都會有用。

Yes. I think the easy answer on the superlatives is that they're equal, so we don't do something different for gas versus oil. So they're equal, Alastair, is the answer to that question.

是的。我認為最簡單的答案是它們是平等的，所以我們不會對天然氣和石油做不同的事情。所以他們是平等的，阿拉斯泰爾，這就是這個問題的答案。

As far as customers for natural gas, it just depends which basin you're in around the world. Of course, in the U.S., Henry Hub is running somewhere around $6 -- $5 or $6 right now. I don't think there are any concerns with affordability there.

對於天然氣客戶而言，這僅取決於您位於世界各地的哪個盆地。當然，在美國，Henry Hub 目前的價格約為 6 美元、5 美元或 6 美元。我認為那裡的負擔能力沒有任何問題。

I think inside Europe, what we've seen with the high prices is quite a bit of demand destruction. We've seen, I think, 20% off on industrial demand in Europe through the last season. And we're now seeing, as we enter October, similar levels of consumers turning off natural gas as well and conserving.

我認為在歐洲內部，我們所看到的高價對需求造成了相當大的破壞。我認為，上一季歐洲工業需求下降了 20%。現在，隨著進入十月，我們看到類似水平的消費者也關閉天然氣並節省能源。

So I think it just depends which basin you're in right now as to how do you relate to these things. And generally, the price mechanism is working to drive the behaviors that would balance out supply and demand.

所以我認為這取決於你現在處於哪個盆地以及你如何與這些事情聯繫起來。一般來說，價格機制正在努力推動平衡供需的行為。

Murray, can I ask on the gas contract, does that mean that customers are reluctant to turn out these sort of prices?

莫瑞，我可以問一下天然氣合約嗎，這是否意味著客戶不願意給出這樣的價格？

Again, it's a basin-by-basin question. If you look to the Far East, customers are starting to want to term out at these levels. They're seeing a desire to lock in long wave-like contracts. You'll have seen our KOGAS deal announced earlier in the year, so that's a specific example of that. So far, Europe, less so, not willing to term out, as you say.

這又是一個逐個盆地的問題。如果你看看遠東地區，客戶就會開始希望在這些層面上交貨。他們看到了鎖定長波合約的願望。您可能已經看到我們今年早些時候宣布的 KOGAS 交易，這就是一個具體的例子。到目前為止，歐洲的情況還不太好，正如你所說，不願意退出。

Thanks, Al. We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs.

謝謝，艾爾。我們將回答高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna) 提出的下一個問題。

Craig and Murray, congratulations on the strong results, especially in gas and low carbon. I have two questions here. The first one is on your fair value accounting and the operating working capital move.

克雷格和莫瑞，祝賀你們的強勁成果，特別是在天然氣和低碳領域。我在這裡有兩個問題。第一個是關於公允價值會計和營運營運資金的變動。

You've laid out very clearly the matching of derivatives versus physical, which suggests the release in the second half of '23 and '24. But in the last month, since the end of the quarter, the forward for TTF for the next 12 months has fallen about 30%.

您已經非常清楚地列出了衍生品與實物的匹配，這表明將在 23 年和 24 年下半年發布。但在上個月，自本季末以來，未來 12 個月的 TTF 遠期已下降約 30%。

So I was wondering if on top of that physical release of the inventories, if there could also be a nearer-term release of operating working capital simply driven by shorter-term price effect.

因此，我想知道除了庫存的實際釋放之外，是否還可能僅由短期價格效應驅動而在近期釋放營運營運資金。

And then my second question is on your comment around higher turnaround activity in refining, whether that would include Whiting in the fourth quarter.

然後我的第二個問題是關於您對煉油業務週轉活動增加的評論，這是否包括第四季度的鱈魚。

Yes. Craig, do you want to comment on the TAR first and then I'll tackle the FVA and working cap question?

是的。克雷格，你想先對 TAR 發表評論，然後我再解決 FVA 和工作上限問題嗎？

Yes. We have commented, as you've picked up, Michele, we don't typically talk specifically into refining portfolio region-by-region factors for competitive reasons, so I couldn't comment specifically on that. But other than to note, turnarounds are elevated into the fourth quarter.

是的。正如您所提到的，米歇爾，我們已經評論過，出於競爭原因，我們通常不會具體討論按地區完善投資組合因素，因此我無法對此發表具體評論。但值得注意的是，第四季轉虧為盈。

Great. Thanks, Craig. On -- fair value and working cap are 2 very different things, Michele, as you well know. On fair value accounting effects, that will move around with what we call the liquid window, a couple of years of contracted gas. And we mark to market the contracts at the end of each quarter.

偉大的。謝謝，克雷格。米歇爾，正如你所知，公允價值和工作上限是兩個截然不同的東西。就公允價值會計影響而言，這將隨著我們所說的流動窗口（幾年的合約天然氣）而變化。我們會在每個季度末根據市場情況對合約進行標記。

So if -- I think if you were to close today, obviously, there would be a fair value reversal probably in line with what we saw in 3Q, but that is very separate from working capital, which is all about how we manage the trading book and how we manage our working capital position with the derivatives we have.

因此，如果 - 我認為如果你今天收盤，顯然，公允價值反轉可能與我們在第三季度看到的情況一致，但這與營運資本非常不同，這與我們如何管理交易有關書以及我們如何利用我們擁有的衍生性商品管理我們的營運資金部位。

And that's why it's a different sort of guidance now, where we're saying that we've locked it in and we expect these profits -- we expect this working capital to unwind in '23 and '24.

這就是為什麼現在它是一種不同類型的指導，我們說我們已經鎖定了它，我們預計這些利潤 - 我們預計這些營運資金將在 23 年和 24 年釋放。

Now we also have a big oil position. As you know, we have power positions, et cetera, so that can create volatility in the fourth quarter in working capital. And all I'd say is it's very, very difficult to predict right now what will be happening with pricing in 4Q. There's just a lot moving around, Michele, so I'd hesitate to provide any guidance.

現在我們也有很大的石油部位。如您所知，我們擁有權力地位等等，因此這可能會在第四季度造成營運資本的波動。我想說的是，現在很難預測第四季的定價會發生什麼事。米歇爾，有很多變動，所以我不願意提供任何指導。

Thanks, Michele. We'll take the next question from Lydia at Barclays.

謝謝，米歇爾。我們將回答巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞提出的下一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. The first one, to come back to the cash returns, Murray. And when I'm thinking about how you allocate cash flow, is there an element where there's a lot of opportunities like Archaea out there that [you're going to go] actually we want to do those and that then translates through to sort of lesser cash flow and, therefore, lower buybacks?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個，回到現金回報，穆雷。當我在考慮如何分配現金流時，是否存在一個因素，那裡有很多像古菌這樣的機會，[你會去]實際上我們想做這些，然後轉化為某種現金流減少，因此回購減少？

Is that how we think about it because it seems like you've done the Archaea deal for $4 billion, which is a really interesting deal? But that then does that translate through to the lower buyback relative to last quarter?

我們就是這麼想的，因為看起來你們已經完成了 40 億美元的 Archaea 交易，這是一筆非常有趣的交易？但這是否會轉化為相對於上季的較低迴購？

And the second one, I thought, is a little bit difficult. But if I -- and thank you for the comments earlier around safety. And -- but can I just check, when you're looking at -- so there was a fire at Whiting and the Toledo tragedy, and is there anything -- where you're looking at -- when the operations were transferred over to kind of being run within -- alongside the upstream, is there anything you're looking and going, actually, maybe something is not working?

我認為第二個有點困難。但如果我——並且感謝您之前關於安全的評論。而且 - 但我可以檢查一下，當你看到的時候 - 懷廷發生了火災，托萊多悲劇，還有什麼嗎 - 你看到的地方 - 當業務轉移到有點像在上游——沿著上游，有什麼東西你正在尋找和去做，實際上，也許有些東西不起作用？

Great. Thanks, Lydia. I think on the second comment, safety absolutely remains our #1 priority, no doubt about that, as you know. It was a tragic accident in Toledo with 2 brothers being killed. Our thoughts go out to the families involved. We're cooperating with the investigations now, and we'll learn everything we possibly can on that moving forward.

偉大的。謝謝，莉迪亞。我認為關於第二條評論，安全絕對仍然是我們的第一要務，毫無疑問，正如您所知。這是托萊多發生的一起悲慘事故，兩名兄弟喪生。我們對受影響的家庭表示同情。我們現在正在配合調查，我們將盡我們所能了解未來的一切。

I think, remember, during reinvents, we put all high hazard operations under Gordon Birrell. So we centralized high hazard operations under Gordon Birrell, and we remain confident that, as we move forward, we'll learn these lessons and continue to build a stronger and safer bp. So I think that's what I'd say on that question.

我認為，請記住，在重塑過程中，我們將所有高危險操作都交給了戈登·比雷爾 (Gordon Birrell)。因此，我們將高危險作業集中在戈登·比雷爾(Gordon Birrell) 的領導下，我們仍然相信，隨著我們的前進，我們將吸取這些教訓，並繼續建立一個更強大、更安全的英國石油公司。所以我想這就是我對這個問題要說的。

On cash returns, no change to financial frame is my answer, Lydia, 5 priorities. And priorities #3 and 4 are on capital. And what we've said is that midterm guidance of $14 billion to $16 billion is unchanged. It includes both organic and inorganic capital. You can see that our run rate this year is about $12-ish billion on organic, so that gave us the capacity to do some inorganics.

關於現金回報，我的答案是不改變財務框架，莉迪亞，5個優先事項。優先事項#3 和4 是資本。我們已經說過，140 億至 160 億美元的中期指引保持不變。它包括有機資本和無機資本。你可以看到我們今年有機產品的運作費用約為 12 億美元左右，因此這使我們有能力生產一些無機產品。

As we move into 2023, obviously, we'll have a bit more organic capital. If Archaea completes, that will bump up the organic capital a bit. But we'll continue to have capacity inside that for both organic and inorganic.

進入 2023 年，顯然我們將擁有更多的有機資本。如果古生菌完成，有機資本將略有增加。但我們將繼續擁有有機和無機產能。

But there is no change to the financial frame. We still have the capacity to grow the dividend, 4% per year at $60 is priority 1. And priority 5, we still have the capacity to do $4 billion of buybacks a year at $60, and you can use our rules of thumb to figure out what it might look like at higher levels.

但財務框架沒有改變。我們仍然有能力增加股息，每年 4%，60 美元是優先級 1。在更高層次上可能會是什麼樣子。

So I think I gave the boring answer, Lydia, of no change to guidance.

所以我想我給了無聊的答案，莉迪亞，指導方針沒有改變。

Thanks, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn. Peter.

謝謝，莉迪亞。我們將回答 Redburn 的 Peter Low 提出的下一個問題。彼得.

So the first question was just, can you comment on inflation, where you're seeing it across your portfolio and what you're doing to mitigate it, where it is coming through?

所以第一個問題是，你能評論一下通貨膨脹嗎？

And then the second was obviously a very clarification. So I think you just said that the $14 billion to $16 billion CapEx guidance in 2023 to 2025 would include any future potential inorganic spend.

第二個顯然是一個非常澄清的問題。因此，我認為您剛才說過，2023 年至 2025 年 140 億至 160 億美元的資本支出指引將包括任何未來潛在的無機支出。

Yes. Peter, yes, that second one is super easy, yes. Our guidance, our 5 financial priorities are unchanged. And our midterm capital guidance of $14 billion to $16 billion includes organics and inorganics. So no change there.

是的。彼得，是的，第二個非常簡單，是的。我們的指導方針、我們的 5 個財務優先事項保持不變。我們的中期資本指引為 140 億至 160 億美元，包括有機和無機資本。所以那裡沒有變化。

Inflation, I can't give you much of an update. Since last quarter, nothing's really changed. From a capital perspective, the place that we've seen inflation in 2022 is Lower 48, where, net-net, we're seeing 10% inflation rates. Once we negotiate through the contracts, that's really the only place with inflation inside the CapEx space in the historic upstream.

通貨膨脹，我不能給你太多最新消息。自上個季度以來，一切都沒有真正改變。從資本角度來看，我們在 2022 年看到的通貨膨脹率是 Lower 48，其中，我們看到的通貨膨脹率為 10%。一旦我們透過合約進行談判，這實際上是歷史上游資本支出空間內唯一存在通貨膨脹的地方。

I think as you look across the downstream business, energy prices are quite challenging, obviously. It shows up in our top line and our bottom line. But we probably had somewhere between $1 billion and $1.5 billion of additional fuel costs and energy costs inside our downstream business over, give or take, the past year.

我認為，當你縱觀下游業務時，能源價格顯然相當具有挑戰性。它顯示在我們的頂線和底線。但在過去的一年裡，我們的下游業務可能有 10 億至 15 億美元的額外燃料成本和能源成本。

And we've started to see some pretty material numbers inside logistics and wages, probably a couple of hundred million dollars that are impacting cash cost as well.

我們已經開始看到物流和工資方面的一些相當重要的數字，可能有幾億美元，這也影響了現金成本。

Inside low carbon, no real change. Solar, we were seeing a 30% increase in solar cost -- solar panel costs, but that was being compensated for our returns with a 10% uplift in the PPA.

低碳裡面，沒有真正的改變。在太陽能方面，我們看到太陽能成本（太陽能板成本）增加了 30%，但這透過購電協議 (PPA) 增加 10% 來補償我們的回報。

In offshore wind, no change to the last update we gave you, where net-net we were seeing a 5% increase in the overall cost. But again, the PPAs would uplift to offset that.

在離岸風電方面，我們給您的最新更新沒有變化，我們發現整體成本增加了 5%。但購電協議將再次提高以抵消此影響。

As we look out to 2023, we're watching the indices carefully. And obviously, given recessionary pressures in the world, we're starting to see many of the metal indices drop a significant amount. So we'll have to see how that evolves and what supply chain strategy we have as we move into 2023. Thanks, Peter.

展望 2023 年，我們正在仔細關注指數。顯然，考慮到全球經濟衰退的壓力，我們開始看到許多金屬指數大幅下跌。因此，當我們進入 2023 年時，我們必須看看這種情況如何發展以及我們有什麼樣的供應鏈策略。

Thank you, Peter. We'll take the next question from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

謝謝你，彼得。我們將回答法國興業銀行艾琳希莫納 (Irene Himona) 提出的下一個問題。

Congratulations on the numbers. Murray, my first question, obviously, interest rates are rising. So one expects the NPV of your decommissioning and other liabilities to drop. Do you anticipate -- or do you hope that your credit rating may improve in the next, I don't know, year or so? And if it did, what would be the implications of, if any, for the financial frame? In other words, how does it change perhaps the order of the financial priorities?

恭喜你的數字。穆雷，我的第一個問題，顯然，利率正在上升。因此，人們預期退役和其他負債的淨現值會下降。您是否預計—或者您希望您的信用評級在下一年（我不知道）左右的時間內會有所改善？如果確實如此，會對金融框架產生什麼影響（如果有的話）？換句話說，它如何改變財務優先順序？

And then the second question, going back to the Archaea acquisition of renewable natural gas. Californian LCFS credit values have more or less halved over the past year. Obviously, R&D economics do depend on these credits. I'm just curious how you approach this. What would you assume happens to those credit values long term in your evaluation of that acquisition?

然後是第二個問題，回到Archaea收購再生天然氣的問題。去年，加州 LCFS 信用價值或多或少減少了一半。顯然，研發經濟學確實依賴這些信用。我只是好奇你是如何處理這個問題的。當您評估該收購時，您認為這些信用價值的長期變化會發生什麼？

Yes. Great. Thanks. So o Archaea, for those of you that don't know, Archaea is a biogas company in the United States. We announced the acquisition of it a month or 2 ago now. How time flies. It's a fantastic opportunity for us. It's a great team. They've got a fantastic hopper of 80 development along with the 50 facilities they are already operating, with the capacity to grow production from 6 MBD to 30 MBD.

是的。偉大的。謝謝。所以，Archaea，對於那些不知道的人來說，Archaea 是美國的一家沼氣公司。我們一兩個月前就宣布收購它了。時間過得真快。這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會。這是一支很棒的團隊。他們擁有 80 個開發的出色料斗以及已經運營的 50 個設施，能夠將產量從 6 MBD 增加到 30 MBD。

And as you point out, Irene, the assets are worth an awful lot because of the RNG credit system inside the United States, which has been durable through multiple governments all the way back to 2007.

正如你所指出的，艾琳，這些資產非常值錢，因為美國內部的 RNG 信用體係自 2007 年以來一直在多個政府的支持下得以持久。

I think when we look back at this, we just use average pricing as we think about how to price these things. Sometimes, prices will go up. Sometimes, prices will go down. Much like all energy complex systems, things are very, very volatile. And we'll just position ourselves to make sure that we can price effectively against history as we move through over time.

我認為當我們回顧這一點時，我們只是使用平均定價來思考如何為這些東西定價。有時，價格會上漲。有時，價格會下降。就像所有能源複雜系統一樣，事物非常非常不穩定。我們將定位自己，以確保隨著時間的推移，我們能夠根據歷史有效定價。

So we priced it based on history. It's -- if you look through COVID, you can almost go and you plot yourself some charts. You can see where it's been priced probably for the past 5, 7 years. So I think that gives you a good indication of where we priced it.

所以我們根據歷史定價。如果你瀏覽一下新冠病毒，你幾乎可以為自己繪製一些圖表。您可以看到過去 5、7 年的定價情況。所以我認為這可以很好地表明我們的定價。

We're very excited about it. We see huge opportunity inside this. And we remain very comfortable that we'll hit the double-digit returns that we talked to the market about. And I think we'll go well beyond that. I think there are going to be interesting opportunities in hydrogen, CCUS with it. Synfuels will start to come into play as well given the new IRA.

我們對此感到非常興奮。我們在這裡面看到了巨大的機會。我們仍然非常放心，我們將達到我們與市場談論的兩位數回報。我認為我們會遠遠超出這個範圍。我認為氫、CCUS 領域將會有有趣的機會。鑑於新的 IRA，合成燃料也將開始發揮作用。

And I think as that organization gets closer to bp, we'll look at municipal solid waste together. We're just going to have a fantastic option set to play here that will create a lot of value for our shareholders and help with the transition. So very, very comfortable with that transaction.

我認為，隨著該組織與英國石油公司的關係越來越密切，我們將一起研究城市固體廢物。我們將在這裡提供一個絕佳的選擇，這將為我們的股東創造大量價值並幫助過渡。對這筆交易非常非常滿意。

Interest rates do appear to be rising. We did have a write-back of some of our -- this is your first question. Interest rates are rising. We did have a decrease in our decommissioning liability because of that. And we'll see what happens with interest rates in 4Q and beyond to understand what's happening. That will strengthen, obviously, the balance sheet. It will be less liabilities.

利率似乎確實在上升。我們確實回覆了一些——這是你的第一個問題。利率正在上升。因此，我們的退役責任確實有所減少。我們將看看第四季度及以後的利率會發生什麼，以了解正在發生的事情。顯然，這將加強資產負債表。負債就會減少。

As far as what the ratings agencies will do, I think I'll just smile. We're looking forward to continuing to maintain strong investment-grade credit ratings. Our metrics are very, very solid. But I'm not sure I'm the right person to forecast what will happen with our rating. You'd have to ask S&P or Moody's or Fitch, I think, with a smile is what I'd say.

至於評級機構會做什麼，我想我只會微笑。我們期待繼續保持強勁的投資等級信用評級。我們的指標非常非常可靠。但我不確定我是否是預測我們的評級將會發生什麼的合適人選。我想，你得去問標準普爾、穆迪或惠譽，我會微笑著說。

As far as what we're going to do moving forward, the Board will debate, as they always do, at fourth quarter results what's the right thing to do. And we'll lay out the 2023 priorities as well, including what we do with surplus and what we do with debt, as you say.

至於我們接下來要做什麼，董事會將像往常一樣，在第四季度的業績報告中討論什麼是正確的做法。我們還將列出 2023 年的優先事項，包括我們如何處理盈餘和如何處理債務，正如您所說。

We have made tremendous progress on debt, 10 quarters in a row, down to $22 billion. We're very, very pleased with that. And we just need to continue following that financial frame. I hope that helps, Irene.

我們在債務方面取得了巨大進展，連續 10 個季度降至 220 億美元。我們對此非常非常滿意。我們只需要繼續遵循該財務框架。我希望這有幫助，艾琳。

Great. Thank you, Irene. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann, Exane.

偉大的。謝謝你，艾琳。我們將回答 Exane 盧卡斯·赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann) 提出的下一個問題。

Yes, Craig. Murray, a couple, if I might. Firstly, just going back to the share buyback and trying to understand the 677 million bought to date. The question provided simply that if I look at the shares you bought back since your AGM, the number is materially higher. So question one, what am I missing?

是的，克雷格。莫瑞，一對，如果可以的話。首先，回到股票回購並嘗試了解迄今為止購買的 6.77 億美元。這個問題很簡單，如果我看看你自年度股東大會以來回購的股票，這個數字會高很多。所以問題一，我錯過了什麼？

And the second question is on Azul and whether you could just walk us through the cash flow movements or line items that have been impacted by Azul this quarter. That's it, Murray.

第二個問題是關於 Azul 的，您是否可以向我們介紹本季受到 Azul 影響的現金流變動或專案。就是這樣，穆雷。

Great. Thanks, Lucas. Craig, do you want to answer the share buyback question, please, and I'll take Azul?

偉大的。謝謝，盧卡斯。克雷格，你想回答一下股票回購問題嗎？

Yes, yes. Thanks, Lucas. Yes, on the first one, just to repeat what Murray says and what we see in the SCA firstly, the authority at the 2022 AGM enables us to repurchase 1.95 billion shares. And as Murray said, at the 31st of October, we've repurchased 677 million shares.

是的，是的。謝謝，盧卡斯。是的，關於第一個問題，首先重複 Murray 所說的話以及我們在 SCA 中看到的內容，2022 年年度股東大會的授權使我們能夠回購 19.5 億股股票。正如莫瑞所說，截至 10 月 31 日，我們已經回購了 6.77 億股股票。

The authority actually runs AGM to AGM. And the AGM in 2021, the resolution was Resolution 11, gives the company the authority to repurchase shares after the following AGM. And basically, it states if the company has agreed before that date to purchase ordinary shares, whether these purchases will or may be executed after the authority terminates.

該機構實際上負責召開年度股東大會。而2021年的年度股東大會，決議為第11號決議，賦予公司在下次年度股東大會後回購股份的權力。基本上，它規定了公司是否在該日期之前同意購買普通股，這些購買是否會或可能在授權終止後執行。

So in short, the only share buyback that relates to this current program is the one that we announced in the second quarter. Anything prior to that was covered under the 2021 authority, which is probably the disconnect you're seeing, Lucas, in your calculation, hence, the numbers that we've quoted in the SCA.

簡而言之，與當前計劃相關的唯一股票回購是我們在第二季宣布的計劃。在此之前的所有內容均受 2021 年授權管轄，盧卡斯，這可能是您在計算中看到的脫節，因此，我們在 SCA 中引用了這些數字。

And on Azul, really pleased to complete that transaction. Obviously, Lucas, it's a fantastic growth business. It produces about 200 MBD now, growing to 250 MBD over the next 5 years.

在 Azul 上，我非常高興完成這筆交易。顯然，盧卡斯，這是一項出色的成長業務。目前產量約 200 MBD，未來 5 年內產量將增加至 250 MBD。

We look forward to getting after cost synergies. It operates at about $12 to $14 a barrel. We'll see what we can do there. So we're investing about $2 billion of CapEx a year inside the entity between Eni and ourselves.

我們期待獲得成本協同效應。其運行價格約為每桶 12 至 14 美元。我們會看看我們能在那裡做什麼。因此，我們每年在埃尼和我們之間的實體內部投資約 20 億美元的資本支出。

And we'll look for further opportunities to more -- do more there.

我們將尋找更多機會在那裡做更多事情。

We have a quarterly distribution to shareholders. We're not interested in trapping cash. So we'll be sweeping the entity, making sure that it has what it needs. And overall, very pleased.

我們每季向股東分配一次股利。我們對套取現金不感興趣。因此，我們將徹底清理該實體，確保它擁有所需的東西。總的來說，非常滿意。

From an accountings perspective, I suspect you know what has happened. Obviously, we show this as a different type of entity now, so it doesn't show up in EBITDA, et cetera. And we get a one-line net income post tax, and we get cash flow through the dividend as well. But I'm sure you knew that.

從會計的角度來看，我懷疑你知道發生了什麼事。顯然，我們現在將其顯示為不同類型的實體，因此它不會出現在 EBITDA 等中。我們得到了一筆稅後淨收入，我們也透過股利獲得了現金流。但我確信你知道這一點。

The only other thing to mention between Eni and ourselves is they had a larger working capital in the transaction, so they've had a higher distribution than we have in the third quarter relative to our distribution. You might see that in the proceeds, and that's simply because they had a larger amount of cash built up inside the entity than we had. I hope that helps, Lucas.

埃尼和我們之間唯一需要提及的是，他們在交易中擁有更大的營運資金，因此相對於我們的分配，他們在第三季度的分配比我們更高。您可能會在收益中看到這一點，這僅僅是因為他們在實體內部累積的現金比我們多。我希望這有幫助，盧卡斯。

Yes. Just -- if I can just spend one moment, Murray. So just to be clear, I think, I mean, Eni indicated a short $1 billion or so of capital in from Azul this quarter. The reason that will have been higher than -- or appears to have been higher than was the case of bp is in effect an element of that was the repayment of working capital. Is that simple interpretation with -- from a cash perspective?

是的。只是——如果我能花一點時間的話，穆雷。因此，需要澄清的是，我認為，埃尼表示本季從 Azul 獲得了約 10 億美元的短期資金。之所以會高於——或者似乎高於英國石油公司的情況，實際上其中一個因素是營運資金的償還。從現金角度來看，這是簡單的解釋嗎？

Correct, Lucas, yes.

正確，盧卡斯，是的。

Thanks, Lucas. We'll take the next question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan.

謝謝，盧卡斯。我們將回答摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出的下一個問題。

Craig and Murray, so a couple of questions have already been answered. But just coming back to sort of trying to understand or just if you could provide perhaps a clearer frame around how the cash return framework is linked to correlate the trading results.

克雷格和莫瑞，幾個問題已經得到解答。但只是回到嘗試理解或只是您是否可以提供一個更清晰的框架來圍繞現金回報框架如何與交易結果相關聯。

And as far as your definition of exceptional versus normal and sort of going a couple of standard deviations now away from what you've typically achieved, and I'm just trying to make that link back into cash return or a frame that you could provide help, it just would be quite useful going forward.

至於你對特殊與正常的定義，以及現在與你通常取得的成就有一些標準偏差，我只是試圖將這種聯繫重新納入現金回報或你可以提供的框架幫助，這對未來非常有用。

The second question refers to your oil volume outlook in 2023 and beyond. Is there any way -- I mean, hypothetically, you could add volumes in your portfolio if you chose to break rank on your CapEx. I just want to understand your ability to add volumes in the context of your short-cycle [offer] set against decline rates and supply chain bottlenecks.

第二個問題涉及 2023 年及以後的石油產量展望。有沒有辦法——我的意思是，假設，如果你選擇打破你的資本支出排名，你可以增加你的投資組合的交易量。我只是想了解你們在針對遞減率和供應鏈瓶頸的短週期[報價]背景下增加銷量的能力。

Great. Thanks, Christyan. We did have an exceptional quarter in the third quarter in gas trading. I think we provide you with enough transparency that you guys can figure out what it is without me stating the number. Remember, we had an average quarter in 2Q and an exceptional quarter in 1Q. So that's the level of earnings, and I'm pretty sure you guys can figure that out yourselves.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯蒂安。第三季我們的天然氣交易確實表現出色。我認為我們為你們提供了足夠的透明度，這樣你們就可以在我不說出數字的情況下弄清楚它是什麼。請記住，我們在第二季度經歷了平均季度，在第一季經歷了特殊季度。這就是收入水平，我相信你們可以自己弄清楚。

As far as the -- how does that impact the financial frame, the answer is it doesn't, really. It's just a contributor to cash flow, obviously, either an add or a subtract based on working capital move. And that just goes into the surplus accumulated today plus the outlook.

至於這對財務框架有何影響，答案是實際上不會。顯然，它只是現金流的貢獻者，根據營運資金的變動而增加或減少。這只是今天累積的盈餘加上前景。

And the Board takes a balanced position. We look through what's the accumulated surplus to date. And we understand what 60% would be, which is effectively what we pay -- what we've announced in buybacks this quarter.

董事會採取平衡立場。我們查看迄今為止的累積盈餘是多少。我們知道 60% 是多少，這實際上就是我們支付的費用——我們在本季的回購中宣布的費用。

And then we looked at the outlook. And earlier, on Paul Cheng's question, I went through how we're feeling about the outlook. We're pretty bullish right now on the outlook moving forward, which I think will impact shareholder returns as we move forward.

然後我們展望了前景。早些時候，關於鄭保羅的問題，我介紹了我們對前景的看法。我們現在對未來的前景非常樂觀，我認為這將在我們前進的過程中影響股東回報。

On 2023 CapEx, maybe a few things to say. Obviously, we'll have some projects finishing off in the historic upstream. We're spending about $8 billion of capital in 2022 in the upstream. Some projects come off. We've got the accounting effects of Iraq and Angola as well, which then gives us room to spend more on 2023 CapEx in the upstream.

關於 2023 年資本支出，也許有幾件事要說。顯然，我們將在歷史悠久的上游完成一些項目。到 2022 年，我們將在上游花費約 80 億美元的資本。有些項目成功了。我們也受到了伊拉克和安哥拉的會計影響，這為我們在 2023 年上游資本支出上增加支出提供了空間。

We're looking at bringing 2 rigs into the Gulf of Mexico, a fixed and a work-over rig. We're looking at bringing another 2 to 3 rigs into the Lower 48 between the Haynesville and the Permian. We're looking at bringing another couple of rigs into the North Sea.

我們正在考慮將 2 個鑽井平台引入墨西哥灣，一個是固定鑽井平台，一個是修井平台。我們正在考慮將另外 2 到 3 個鑽孔機引入海恩斯維爾和二疊紀之間的 Lower 48 地區。我們正在考慮將另外幾個鑽井平台引入北海。

So we are looking around at the highest quality opportunities across the business. And as we work through our 2023 budgeting process, we'll come back and talk to you about what we're doing with capital in 2023 in February.

因此，我們正在尋找整個企業中最高品質的機會。當我們完成 2023 年預算流程時，我們將在 2 月回來與您討論 2023 年我們的資本用途。

I suppose the key challenge these days is supply chain challenges, and can you get rigs, can you get crews, can you get a frac fleet, can you get sand. So it's really the supply chain that's choking activity right now. We won't ramp up if we don't have a secure supply chain at reasonable prices. So I hope that helps.

我想現在的關鍵挑戰是供應鏈挑戰，你能得到鑽井平台嗎？所以現在真正令人窒息的是供應鏈。如果我們沒有價格合理的安全供應鏈，我們就不會擴大產能。所以我希望這會有所幫助。

Yes, just to come back on the first one. I'd just it put another way. I mean, that 60%, is that anchored on a normal trading environment? In other words, if you have an exceptional trading environment that would then drive an exceptional dividend like a special.

是的，只是為了回到第一個。我只是想換個說法。我的意思是，這 60% 是基於正常的交易環境嗎？換句話說，如果你有一個特殊的交易環境，那麼就會帶來像特別股息一樣的特殊股息。

Just trying to understand what your through cycle sort of anchor in terms of your cash return from it versus what is now 2, 3 standard deviations away in trading, if that makes sense sort of like it -- you sustain.

只是試著了解你的整個週期的錨定點，即你從中獲得的現金回報與現在交易中的 2、3 個標準差相比，如果這有意義的話——你可以維持。

Yes, Christyan, I don't think we can be clear on our financial frame. 5 priorities, 60% of surplus is the fifth priority. Doesn't matter what an individual business does inside the portfolio. We've just tried to be absolutely crystal clear with the market that our aim for 2022, 60%.

是的，克里斯蒂安，我認為我們不能清楚我們的財務框架。 5個優先事項，剩餘60%為第五優先事項。單一企業在投資組合中做什麼並不重要。我們剛剛試圖向市場明確我們的目標是 2022 年 60%。

So yes, some businesses do better. Yes, some businesses do worse. But overall, it just moves, and it just gets added together into the overall outlook for the company. And 60% is our answer for 2022. Thanks for the questions, Christyan.

所以，是的，有些企業做得更好。是的，有些企業做得更糟。但總體而言，它只是移動，並且只是被添加到公司的整體前景中。 60% 是我們 2022 年的答案。

Thanks. We'll take the next question from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies.

謝謝。我們將回答傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 賈科莫·羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo) 提出的下一個問題。

First question is I noticed that you have Algeria in column of your divestments, portfolio high-grading there. I just wanted to check on where do you think these assets sit in terms of your EBITDA -- unit EBITDA asset distribution that you showed us back into the 4Q presentation.

第一個問題是，我注意到您的撤資、投資組合高評級一欄中有阿爾及利亞。我只是想了解一下您認為這些資產在您的 EBITDA 中的位置——您在第四季度演示中向我們展示的單位 EBITDA 資產分佈。

The other question I have is -- relates to, last year, we have seen -- back to the buyback, last year, we have seen sort of the Board taking a decision to smooth over sort of any short-term volatility in surplus cash. And again, you referred to this also at the time of the Archaea acquisition.

我的另一個問題是 - 與去年有關，我們已經看到 - 回到回購，去年，我們看到董事會做出了一項決定，以消除剩餘現金的任何短期波動。再說一遍，您在收購 Archaea 時也提到了這一點。

Just wondering what kind of decision led to not to smooth over the effect of the large working capital outflow in setting the buyback for this quarter. And what are the circumstances in which this will be considered as an exceptional and then, therefore, trying to average the effect over the following quarters?

只是想知道什麼樣的決定導致在設定本季回購時未能消除大量營運資金外流的影響。在什麼情況下，這將被視為例外，然後嘗試平均接下來幾季的影響？

Great. Thanks, Giacomo. On Algeria, yes, it's a late life asset for us. PSAs are expiring relatively soon. They're fixed price, and so they're in the lower bucket margin that we talked about back with you. That will be about a year ago now, I think. So I think that answers that question.

偉大的。謝謝，賈科莫。在阿爾及利亞，是的，這對我們來說是晚年的財富。 PSA 即將到期。它們是固定價格，因此它們的利潤率處於我們與您討論過的較低水平。我想那大約是一年前的事了。所以我認為這回答了這個問題。

On fin frame, how are we thinking about fin frame and buybacks, I think I just need to go back to the boilerplate language, guys. We take a look at the accumulated surplus to date. We look at the outlook for the surplus. We look at the macro environment. And that's what helps the Board determine -- the determination of the amount of buyback this quarter. Obviously, it's dead on 60%, I believe, for 2022, and that just basically follows the formula.

關於翅片框架，我們如何考慮翅片框架和回購，我想我只需要回到樣板語言，夥計們。我們來看看迄今為止的累積盈餘。我們關注盈餘的前景。我們看宏觀環境。這就是幫助董事會確定本季回購金額的因素。顯然，我相信 2022 年的成長率將達到 60%，而這基本上遵循公式。

As we look out to the fourth quarter, obviously, we hope that the Archaea transaction completes in the fourth quarter. And if that's to occur, the Board will have to take a decision around how they deal with that. But that's a decision that will be made by the Board in February, and I'm not going to prejudge what that is.

當我們展望第四季時，顯然，我們希望古菌交易在第四季度完成。如果這種情況發生，董事會將必須就如何處理這一問題做出決定。但這是董事會將在二月做出的決定，我不會預先判斷這項決定。

But we do look backwards, we do look forwards. We've told you $4 billion a year at $60. And we've told you that the rules of thumb are a good guidance for how we think about this. So I'd just encourage you to go back to the $4 billion at $60 and the rules of thumb to help understand how we think about it. And I think we'll just leave that one there.

但我們確實向後看，我們確實向前看。我們告訴你每年 40 億美元，60 美元。我們已經告訴過您，經驗法則可以很好地引導我們如何思考這個問題。因此，我只是鼓勵您回到 40 億美元和 60 美元的經驗法則，以幫助理解我們如何看待它。我想我們就把那個留在那裡吧。

Craig?

克雷格？

Yes. And I think one other thing I'd add is we've also told you that as it relates to working capital, $7 billion is expected to release through the second half of 2023 and into 2024 when you consider the impact of that working capital on forward-looking cash outlook, which, as Murray has explained, is something the Board considers as well.

是的。我想我要補充的另一件事是，我們也告訴過您，由於它與營運資金有關，當您考慮營運資金對營運資金的影響時，預計將在2023 年下半年和2024 年釋放70 億美元。

So in terms of the working capital impacts as it relates to operating cash and how that feeds through to surplus cash, you've also got a sense now as you look ahead about how that working capital releases alongside the guidance, as Murray says, on the $4 billion at $60 and the rules of thumb above that.

因此，就營運資金的影響而言，因為它與營運現金以及營運資金如何轉化為盈餘現金有關，當您展望未來營運資金如何與指導一起釋放時，您現在也有了一定的了解，正如穆雷所說， 40 億美元等於 60 美元，以及高於此的經驗法則。

Okay. Great. We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

好的。偉大的。我們將回答來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 的下一個問題。

Yes. Look, frankly, a lot has already been covered, but I want to sort of ask sort of two more. So $2.5 billion of incremental buybacks in the fourth quarter, that is sort of 2.5% of the share count. So if that's sort of -- so the last 4 years, you have another 10%. And I was wondering, building on the discussion we had last quarter, whether it would be sort of fair to say that, well, every $2.5 billion of buybacks you do per quarter, every 2.5%, we should now start to anticipate that the buyback for the fourth quarter will add 2.5 percentage points to DPS growth sort of at the next announcement.

是的。坦白說，已經涵蓋了很多內容，但我想再問兩個問題。因此，第四季增量回購額為 25 億美元，相當於股票總數的 2.5%。所以如果是這樣的話——那麼過去 4 年，你還有另外 10%。我想知道，基於我們上個季度的討論，是否公平地說，每季度每進行 25 億美元的回購，即每 2.5%，我們現在應該開始預期回購第四季度的DPS 增長將在下一次發布時增加2.5 個百分點。

It seems a conclusion that lies -- that will be an extension of what we discussed in 2Q. But I sort of wanted to sort of put it to you to see if you'd say we're thinking along the right lines here, connecting today's buyback to basically tomorrow's dividend growth.

這似乎是一個結論——這將是我們在第二季度討論的內容的延伸。但我有點想把它告訴你，看看你是否會說我們在這裡思考的方向是正確的，將今天的回購基本上與明天的股息成長聯繫起來。

And the second question I wanted to ask you is whether you had any updated thoughts on the impact of the EU embargo on Russian oil. I mean, it's been incredibly difficult to navigate the issue, but you're arguably much closer to it than any of us. So I was wondering how you would expect this to impact, well, both the company and the market.

我想問你的第二個問題是，你對歐盟對俄羅斯石油禁運的影響是否有任何最新的想法。我的意思是，解決這個問題非常困難，但可以說你比我們任何人都更接近它。所以我想知道你預計這會對公司和市場產生什麼影響。

Yes. Great. Thanks, Martijn. The EU embargo on oil, I guess, maybe a few things to state. Oil, just some facts to state, oil stocks are relatively low relative to the 5-year history. Surplus capacity held by OPEC+ is relatively low as well compared to history. So I think those are 2 facts.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，馬丁。我想，歐盟對石油的禁運也許有一些需要說明的事情。石油，只是一些事實說明，石油庫存相對於五年歷史而言相對較低。與歷史相比，OPEC+持有的過剩產能也相對較低。所以我認為這是兩個事實。

How the EU sanctions will be implemented in December and February is something that we're still watching closely as well as the price gap. I think it's almost impossible to predict how these things will unfold.

12月和2月歐盟制裁將如何實施，以及價格差距，我們仍在密切關注。我認為預測這些事情將如何展開幾乎是不可能的。

You've just got a lot of moving parts on Chinese demand. You've got a lot of moving parts on how the EU sanctions will impact. You've got a lot of moving parts on demand destruction. And so I find it very, very difficult to figure out where oil price and products prices are moving over the coming quarters given all that level of uncertainty.

你有很多符合中國需求的活動部件。關於歐盟制裁將如何影響，有許多變化。您有很多按需銷毀的活動部件。因此，我發現鑑於如此多的不確定性，很難弄清楚未來幾季石油價格和產品價格的趨勢。

What I do know is that stocks are at low levels and surplus capacity is at low levels. So I think we conclude that, elevated and volatile, Martijn. I hope that helps. I'm not trying to dodge, but I think it's as difficult a time period to understand how things will unfold as I've seen.

我所知道的是，庫存處於低水平，過剩產能也處於低水平。所以我認為我們得出的結論是，馬丁。我希望這有幫助。我並不是想迴避，但我認為現在是一個很難理解事情將如何展開的時期，就像我所看到的那樣。

As far as buybacks leading to dividends, your question on that, as we look back at 2Q, we'd obviously retired an awful lot of stock. We'd retired an awful lot of debt and the interest load associated with it, and the operations themselves were doing quite well.

至於回購導致股息，你的問題是，當我們回顧第二季時，我們顯然已經退休了大量股票。我們已經償還了大量債務和與之相關的利息負擔，而且業務本身也表現得很好。

And all of those gave the Board the confidence to increase the dividend with the key focal point being our $40, 11 RMM and 3 Henry Hub balance point. We want to make sure that any dividend increase is resilient through the transition, and that's why we slavishly look to balance point as we think about these things. So I think it's driven as much by balance point as anything else.

所有這些都讓董事會有信心增加股息，關鍵焦點是我們的 40 美元、11 RMM 和 3 Henry Hub 平衡點。我們希望確保任何股息增加在過渡期間都具有彈性，這就是為什麼我們在考慮這些事情時盲目地尋求平衡。所以我認為它與其他因素一樣受平衡點驅動。

Looking forward then, how can you think about this? We will anchor on balance point, 40, 11 and 3. Of course, we will look at buybacks and what that's doing to the dividend load. We'll, of course, look at interest. And we'll, of course, look at operational performance.

展望未來，你會如何思考這個問題？我們將錨定在平衡點 40、11 和 3。當然，我們會考慮興趣。當然，我們會關注營運績效。

And hopefully, you hear the cheery note in my voice about we think that we've got a strong wave of performance coming now. But that's how we look at it moving forward. The only firm guidance I can give you is we have the capacity to increase the dividend by 4% per annum, assuming $60 oil. I hope that helps, Martijn.

希望你能從我的聲音中聽到愉快的聲音，我們認為我們現在即將迎來一波強勁的表現。但這就是我們對未來的看法。我能給你的唯一堅定的指導是，假設油價為 60 美元，我們有能力每年將股息增加 4%。我希望這會有所幫助，馬丁。

Thanks, Martijn. And we'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent, Bank of America.

謝謝，馬丁。我們將回答美國銀行 Chris Kuplent 提出的下一個問題。

Murray, just a quick one on Alaska. You've collected some more proceeds this quarter. How many have you now collected when you compare it to the headline price that you disclosed at the time of the disposal, just as a sort of a reminder?

穆雷，簡單介紹一下阿拉斯加。本季您又收到了一些收益。當你將其與你在處置時披露的標題價格（只是作為一種提醒）進行比較時，你現在收集了多少？

And then lastly, on gas trading, I'm -- you're being very kind in a way by telling us it is 3 billion you should get there yourself in terms of the gas trading contribution in Q3.

最後，關於天然氣交易，我——你在某種程度上非常友善地告訴我們，就第三季的天然氣交易貢獻而言，你應該自己實現 30 億美元。

Who do you fear? Why not make that more transparent? Is it the political environment? Or is it your gas traders at fear the competition across the street, thinking they might not work out that it's about 3 billion?

你害怕誰？為什麼不讓它變得更透明呢？是政治環境嗎？還是你們的天然氣交易商擔心街對面的競爭，認為他們可能無法計算出約 30 億美元？

Chris, I'm not going to comment on the number. I think transparency on trading is a tricky thing. I think, generally, we have observed others that do this. The entire conversation with the analyst community comes focused on trading, and I'm not sure that's very productive when you've got a broad-based business that's trying to transition. So it's about investor focus and focusing on the broad conversation, I think, is what covers my mind.

克里斯，我不會對這個數字發表評論。我認為交易的透明度是一件棘手的事情。我認為，一般來說，我們觀察到其他人這樣做。與分析師社群的整個對話都集中在交易上，當你有一個廣泛的業務正在嘗試轉型時，我不確定這是否非常有效。因此，我認為，這是關於投資者的關注和對廣泛對話的關注。

And then on Alaska, I think 3-ish is about the number so far relative to the original announcement, Chris, give or take.

然後在阿拉斯加，我認為到目前為止相對於最初宣布的數字大約是 3 左右，克里斯，給予或接受。

Okay. We'll take the next question from Amy Wong at Credit Suisse.

好的。我們將回答瑞士信貸銀行 Amy Wong 的下一個問題。

Got a couple of questions, both related to your customers and products line. It's a bit more strategic, actually. So thinking about looking at your metrics this quarter on convenience site and cash flow, you've all seem to kind of go backwards. So could you just update us on how you feel about your progress on your strategy, on your customers and mobility theme?

有幾個問題，都與您的客戶和產品線有關。實際上，這更具戰略意義。因此，考慮一下本季便利網站和現金流方面的指標，你們似乎都在倒退。那麼您能否向我們介紹一下您對策略、客戶和行動主題的進展有何看法？

And then the second question there is, when you launched your new reporting, you said you'd come back to the market on metrics on how do you measure your EV charging business. You've arguably made some good progress there on some acquisitions. So when should we expect to see some standalone metrics and reporting related to that line of business?

第二個問題是，當您發布新報告時，您表示您將回到市場，以了解如何衡量電動車充電業務的指標。可以說，你們在一些收購方面取得了一些良好的進展。那麼，我們什麼時候應該看到與該業務線相關的一些獨立指標和報告呢？

Great. Thanks, Amy. Yes, Castrol is in a tough sector right now. They have all the headwinds that we've talked about before, base oil prices, additive prices, Chinese lockdowns, et cetera, when they're the largest in China.

偉大的。謝謝，艾米。是的，嘉實多目前正處於一個艱難的行業。當它們是中國最大的國家時，它們面臨著我們之前討論過的所有不利因素，基礎油價格、添加劑價格、中國的封鎖等等。

They are making strategic progress. We have a new leader in to take that business forward, and she's coming up with her 90-day plan that she'll present to Bernard and I in December.

他們正在取得戰略進展。我們有一位新的領導者來推動這項業務的發展，她正在製定 90 天計劃，並將於 12 月向伯納德和我提出。

And we have great hope for it. And I think the thing that gives me great hope with it is we can benchmark against the externals. And if we look against the competition that published last week, Castrol is actually doing relatively well in a competitive sense.

我們對此抱持著很大的希望。我認為給我很大希望的是我們可以與外部進行比較。如果我們對照上週發布的競爭對手，嘉實多實際上在競爭意義上做得相對較好。

So we just need base oils to flat now. We need the additives program to be fixed globally, not just for us. And then hopefully, China will gradually unlock. And then we should see our great brand take effect there.

所以我們現在只需要基礎油就好了。我們需要在全球範圍內解決添加劑計劃，而不僅僅是我們自己。然後希望中國能夠逐漸解鎖。然後我們應該會看到我們偉大的品牌在那裡發揮作用。

So an awful lot of hope for the future for Castrol, and relative competitive performance is very strong. We benchmark that every quarter.

所以嘉實多的未來充滿希望，而且相對競爭表現也非常強勁。我們每季都會進行基準測試。

As far as EVs, we'll start to provide more as we move forward. Progress in EVs is fantastic. We're up to 6% utilization across the U.S. We're already up to 3% utilization in Netherlands and Germany, only having embarked there over the past 12 to 18 months. China is at 13% utilization.

就電動車而言，隨著我們的前進，我們將開始提供更多。電動車的進步是驚人的。我們在美國的利用率高達 6%。中國的利用率為 13%。

Richard, who runs the business on behalf of Emma, is installing 200 fast charge points a week. That's a heck of a number, isn't it, 200 globally a week. And we're seeing record after record in energy sales.

理查德代表艾瑪經營這家公司，每周安裝 200 個快速充電點。這是一個很大的數字，不是嗎，全球每週 200 個。我們看到能源銷售創下一個又一個的紀錄。

So fantastic progress. It's a fabulous business, and we'll provide more information for you. I don't know if it will be in February or it will be a separate session next year. That's something that Craig and I still need to debate, but we'll definitely be showing you more about convenience electrification, one of our big, big growth engines moving forward. We're very excited about it. Thank you.

如此驚人的進步。這是一項非常棒的業務，我們將為您提供更多資訊。我不知道是在二月還是明年單獨開會。這是克雷格和我仍然需要爭論的問題，但我們肯定會向您展示更多有關便利電氣化的信息，這是我們前進的巨大增長引擎之一。我們對此感到非常興奮。謝謝。

Thanks, Amy. We'll take the penultimate question from Jason Gabelman at Cowen.

謝謝，艾米。我們將回答 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman 提出的倒數第二個問題。

I just wanted to ask about the LNG growth that you mentioned within your portfolio. How does that change your kind of exposure to prices? And then just spot versus term on offtake, maybe you could discuss how that evolves over the next year with these new volumes coming online.

我只是想問一下您在投資組合中提到的液化天然氣增長情況。這如何改變你對價格的曝光程度？然後，就現貨與期限承購而言，也許您可以討論明年隨著這些新卷的上線，情況將如何發展。

And then my second question on the Toledo incident, can you discuss maybe expectation for how long the plant will be down, cost to repair and if there's any impact to the asset divestment as a result?

然後我關於托萊多事件的第二個問題，您能否討論一下工廠將關閉多長時間的預期、修復成本以及因此對資產撤資是否有任何影響？

Great. Thanks, Jason. On Toledo, I can't really guide you on anything right now. The site is shut down, as we talked about. The investigations continue. And we need to complete the investigations, learn the lessons and then we'll decide how we move forward. But I can't really give you any guidance until we're through that process. My apologies.

偉大的。謝謝，傑森。在托萊多，我現在無法為您提供任何指導。正如我們所說，該網站已關閉。調查仍在繼續。我們需要完成調查，吸取教訓，然後決定如何前進。但在我們完成這個過程之前，我無法真正給你任何指導。我很抱歉。

On LNG growth and how do we think about this and price exposure, if you think about our business, we have 14 million tonnes per annum of equity and merchant cargoes that we bought over time. Each and every quarter, the teams optimize the value of these things through either OTC or derivative positions and try to improve upon the earnings they see.

關於液化天然氣的成長以及我們如何看待這一點和價格風險，如果你考慮我們的業務，我們會隨著時間的推移每年購買 1400 萬噸的股權和商業貨物。每個季度，團隊都會透過場外交易或衍生性商品部位來優化這些東西的價值，並嘗試提高他們所看到的收益。

As new programs come in, so as new projects come in, that long list that I talked with you about, we're generally purchasing cargoes that were done in the 2015, '16, '17 time window, and you'll know the prices in those time windows. Some of the sales contracts will be hedged on that, some won't be.

隨著新計劃的到來，隨著新項目的到來，我與您討論的那長串清單，我們通常會購買在 2015 年、16 年、17 年時間窗口完成的貨物，您會知道這些時間窗口內的價格。有些銷售合約將以此進行對沖，有些則不會。

You want to make sure that you don't get ahead of yourself too much and do too much derivative hedging when there is doubt on what the producibility of the assets will be in the early phases. So it's a mix. And then as you get more certainty, you'll start to lock that stuff in as you get more certainty on production.

當您對早期階段資產的可生產性有疑問時，您需要確保不要太過超前並進行過多的衍生性商品對沖。所以這是一個混合體。然後，當你獲得更多確定性時，當你在生產方面獲得更多確定性時，你將開始鎖定這些東西。

So I think that's a little bit about how we think about it. And I think the part that's maybe a touch different than the rest of the competition is that we have more flexibility to optimize, I think, than some of the competition have. So we're always optimizing inside the quarter across the basins based on the clauses we have in our contracts.

所以我認為這與我們的想法有關。我認為與其他競爭對手不同的部分是，我認為我們比某些競爭對手擁有更大的優化靈活性。因此，我們始終根據合約中的條款在各流域的季度內進行最佳化。

So I think that's what makes bp maybe a little bit differential. Maybe I'm misleading myself on that, Jason. So I hope that's probably more than I've ever talked about. I think I'll stop there before my gas traders get upset. Thanks, Jason.

所以我認為這就是 bp 可能有點差異的原因。也許我在這一點上誤導了自己，傑森。所以我希望這可能比我談論過的更多。我想我會在我的天然氣交易員感到不安之前就到此為止。謝謝，傑森。

Okay. And the last question, from one Jason to another, Jason Kenney in Edinburgh, Santander.

好的。最後一個問題是由傑森問另一個問題，來自桑坦德愛丁堡的賈森肯尼。

When do you think the first significant CapEx into the Asia Renewable Energy Hub is possible? And I'm assuming first material EBITDA from that beyond 5 years from now, but maybe just some kind of time scale around your commitment across in Australia there.

您認為亞洲再生能源中心的首次重大資本支出何時可能實現？我假設第一個實質的 EBITDA 是從現在起 5 年後開始的，但也許只是圍繞著你在澳洲的承諾的某種時間範圍。

Then secondly, on Libya gas, some news flow this week that bp with Eni to begin getting gas from a field in the Med that's potentially larger than Zohr apparently. This is according to the National Oil Company, NOC. Any insight on scale or time frame for Libya gas commitment? Great. Anything you've got there.

其次，關於利比亞天然氣，本周有消息稱，英國石油公司與埃尼集團將開始從地中海地區的一個油田獲取天然氣，該油田顯然可能比佐爾還要大。這是根據國家石油公司 (NOC) 的說法。對利比亞天然氣承諾的規模或時間框架有何見解？偉大的。你那裡有什麼東西。

Yes. On Libya gas, it's an exploration program. We've recently completed a transaction with Eni to equalize in the offshore in Libya. And in the years ahead, we'll start exploring. That's probably what I'd say on Libya.

是的。關於利比亞天然氣，這是一個勘探計劃。我們最近與埃尼公司完成了一項交易，以平衡利比亞海上業務。在未來的幾年裡，我們將開始探索。關於利比亞，我可能會這麼說。

On AREH, there are 2 ways to think about AREH. First of all, it's a domestic play. So can we bring green hydrogen or green power to the nearby mining and other industries? That's probably something that happens middle '25, '26, '27 would be my guess when that starts happening. And then that will form the base project that then allows you to build a big export hub hopefully by the end of the decade. That would be brilliant if we could achieve that.

在 AREH 上，有兩種思考 AREH 的方式。首先，這是一部國產劇。那麼我們能否為附近的採礦業和其他產業帶來綠氫或綠色電力呢？我猜這可能是在 25 年、26 年、27 年中期發生的事情。然後，這將形成一個基礎項目，讓您有望在本世紀末建立一個大型出口中心。如果我們能實現這一點那就太好了。

The complexity on the domestic play is relatively low. The complexity on the international play is quite high. We'll have to lock in customers. We'll have to lock in stakeholder rights. We'd have to lock in some pretty serious capacity for electrolyzers and, of course, secure that financing, et cetera, for what would be a very, very big investment.

國內遊戲的複雜度相對較低。國際比賽的複雜性相當高。我們必須鎖定客戶。我們必須鎖定利害關係人的權利。我們必須鎖定一些相當大的電解槽產能，當然還要確保融資等等，這將是一項非常非常大的投資。

So we're delighted that we've completed it. We'll get going on the domestic side now. And then, hopefully, over time, we'll work with some of our international customers to start looking at growing that to export as well. I hope that helps, Jason, and thank you for your question.

所以我們很高興我們已經完成了它。我們現在開始國內方面。然後，希望隨著時間的推移，我們將與一些國際客戶合作，開始考慮擴大出口。我希望這對您有幫助，傑森，謝謝您的提問。

Okay. Thank you, Jason, and thanks to everybody for all the questions. That's the end of the Q&A., so maybe just let me hand over to Murray for a couple of closing questions. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，傑森，也謝謝大家提出的所有問題。問答到此結束，所以也許讓我把問題交給穆雷來回答幾個結束問題。謝謝。

Thanks, Craig, and thanks to everyone for listening. I think it's been another decent quarter for delivery for bp, and that's really what we remain focused on. We're delivering on our operational and strategic plan and financial frame. We're delivering against that financial frame. And we're delivering for shareholders through growing our distributions.

謝謝克雷格，也謝謝大家的聆聽。我認為對於英國石油公司來說，這是另一個不錯的季度交付，這確實是我們仍然關注的重點。我們正在實施我們的營運和策略計劃以及財務框架。我們正在按照這個財務框架進行交付。我們透過增加分配來為股東提供服務。

We look forward to updating you further on this in fourth quarter results, where we think we'll also provide an update on our strategy progress in February.

我們期待在第四季度的業績中進一步向您通報最新情況，我們認為我們也將在二月份提供有關我們策略進展的最新資訊。

So thanks again for listening and your questions today, and I look forward to chatting you in the future. Bye-bye.

再次感謝您今天的聆聽和提出的問題，我期待著將來與您聊天。再見。