英國石油 (BP) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to bp's Third Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. I'm Craig Marshall, bp's Head of Investor Relations, and I'm here today with Murray Auchincloss, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位早上好，歡迎來到 bp 的 2022 年第三季度業績發布會。我是克雷格馬歇爾，bp 的投資者關係主管，今天我和我們的首席財務官默里奧金克洛斯一起來到這裡。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings.

在我們今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括那些涉及我們的估計、計劃和預期的陳述。由於我們在這張幻燈片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的備案文件中註意到的因素，實際結果和成果可能會有重大差異。

Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

有關更多詳細信息，請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

I will now hand over to Murray.

我現在將交給默里。

Thanks, Craig. Good morning, everyone. We are here today to report on another quarter of financial and strategic delivery. But first, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic incident at the Toledo refinery, where 2 of our employees sadly lost their lives following a fire. Our thoughts go to their families, to the team at Toledo and to the local community. Safety remains our #1 priority, and the refinery remains offline as we work to understand the root causes of this incident.

謝謝，克雷格。大家，早安。我們今天在這里報告另一季度的財務和戰略交付情況。但首先，我想花點時間承認托萊多煉油廠發生的悲慘事件，我們的 2 名員工在火災中不幸喪生。我們會想到他們的家人、托萊多的團隊和當地社區。安全仍然是我們的第一要務，在我們努力了解此事件的根本原因時，煉油廠仍處於離線狀態。

Turning to third quarter results. We remain focused on strengthening bp. During the third quarter, we delivered $8.2 billion of underlying earnings and operating cash flow of $8.3 billion, including a working capital build of $6.2 billion. We continue to execute against our disciplined financial frame, reducing net debt for the 10th consecutive quarter to reach $22 billion and announcing a further $2.5 billion share buyback.

轉向第三季度業績。我們仍然專注於加強 bp。第三季度，我們實現了 82 億美元的基礎收益和 83 億美元的運營現金流，其中包括 62 億美元的營運資本建設。我們繼續執行嚴格的財務框架，連續第 10 個季度減少淨債務，達到 220 億美元，並宣布進一步回購 25 億美元的股票。

And we have momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company. Since reporting second quarter results, we have accelerated our bioenergy strategy, agreeing to acquire Archaea Energy, a leading U.S. biogas company; advanced our growth strategy in EV charging and convenience through our collaboration with Hertz; and continue to high grade our hydrocarbons business.

我們有向綜合能源公司轉型的勢頭。自報告第二季度業績以來，我們加快了生物能源戰略，同意收購美國領先的沼氣公司 Archaea Energy；通過與赫茲的合作，推進我們在電動汽車充電和便利方面的增長戰略；並繼續提升我們的碳氫化合物業務。

I will provide more detail on our results and strategic progress in a moment. But first, let me turn to the macro environment, starting with gas prices, where we continue to see significant volatility.

我稍後會提供更多關於我們的結果和戰略進展的細節。但首先，讓我談談宏觀環境，從天然氣價格開始，我們繼續看到大幅波動。

During the quarter, reduced Russian pipeline imports led to sharp increases in both spot and future prices in Europe with the quarter average TTF price rising by 92%. Prices also rose in the U.S. as summer cooling demand offset the loss of Freeport LNG exports.

本季度，俄羅斯管道進口減少導致歐洲現貨和期貨價格大幅上漲，季度平均 TTF 價格上漲 92%。由於夏季降溫需求抵消了自由港液化天然氣出口的損失，美國的價格也有所上漲。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect gas prices to remain elevated and volatile, with the outlook heavily dependent on Russian pipeline flows and the severity of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

展望第四季度，我們預計天然氣價格將保持高位波動，前景在很大程度上取決於俄羅斯管道流量和北半球冬季的嚴酷程度。

Moving to oil prices. During the third quarter, Brent averaged $101 per barrel, down from $114 per barrel in the second quarter. This reflected increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and the continued COVID-related lockdowns in China. Despite this uncertainty, we expect oil prices to remain elevated in the fourth quarter given the backdrop of low inventory levels, OPEC+ supply cuts, limited supply growth and uncertainty around Russian exports.

轉向油價。第三季度，布倫特原油平均價格為每桶 101 美元，低於第二季度的每桶 114 美元。這反映出圍繞經濟前景的不確定性增加以及中國與 COVID 相關的持續封鎖。儘管存在這種不確定性，但我們預計第四季度油價將在低庫存、歐佩克+減產、供應增長有限以及俄羅斯出口不確定性的背景下保持高位。

Turning to refining. Global margins decreased to average around $35.50 per barrel during the third quarter and are expected to remain at elevated levels during the fourth quarter due to lower stocks and sanctioning of Russian crude and product.

轉向精煉。第三季度全球利潤率下降至平均每桶 35.50 美元左右，預計第四季度將保持在較高水平，原因是庫存減少以及俄羅斯原油和產品受到製裁。

Moving to results. In the third quarter, we reported a loss of $2.2 billion. After post-tax adjusting items of $8.1 billion and an inventory holding loss of $2.2 billion, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $8.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion last quarter. Pretax adjusting items included fair value accounting effects of $10.1 billion primarily due to the continued increase in forward gas prices.

轉向結果。第三季度，我們報告虧損 22 億美元。在 81 億美元的稅後調整項目和 22 億美元的庫存持有損失之後，我們報告的基礎重置成本利潤為 82 億美元，而上一季度為 85 億美元。稅前調整項目包括 101 億美元的公允價值會計影響，這主要是由於遠期天然氣價格的持續上漲。

As a reminder, under IFRS, reported earnings include the mark-to-market value of the hedges used to risk manage LNG contracts, but not of the contracts themselves. In the underlying result, the fair value accounting effect adjust for this mismatch by also recognizing changes in the value of the LNG contracts that are being risk managed.

提醒一下，根據國際財務報告準則，報告的收益包括用於風險管理液化天然氣合同的對沖按市值計價，但不包括合同本身。在基本結果中，公允價值會計影響通過同時確認正在接受風險管理的液化天然氣合同的價值變化來調整這種不匹配。

Turning to business group performance. Compared to the second quarter, in gas and low carbon energy, the result benefited from an exceptional gas marketing and trading performance, higher production and higher gas realizations.

轉向業務組績效。與第二季度相比，在天然氣和低碳能源方面，這一結果得益於出色的天然氣營銷和交易表現、更高的產量和更高的天然氣變現。

In oil production and operations, the result reflects lower liquids realizations and the impact of converting bp's interest in Angola to an equity accounted entity. This was partially offset by higher gas realizations.

在石油生產和運營方面，這一結果反映了較低的流動性實現以及將 bp 在安哥拉的權益轉換為權益會計實體的影響。這部分被更高的天然氣實現所抵消。

In customers and products, the product result reflects lower realized refining margins and oil trading returning to an average contribution compared to an exceptional result in the second quarter. The customers result benefited from an improved retail midstream and B2B and aviation performance, partially offset by higher input costs, notably in Castrol.

在客戶和產品方面，與第二季度的出色結果相比，產品結果反映出較低的已實現煉油利潤率和石油貿易恢復到平均水平。客戶受益於零售中游和 B2B 以及航空業業績的改善，部分被更高的投入成本所抵消，尤其是嘉實多。

Turning to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $8.3 billion in the third quarter. This included a working capital build of $6.2 billion after adjusting for inventory holding losses and fair value accounting effects, mainly driven by the impact of the increase in forward gas prices on bp's LNG portfolio.

轉向現金流。第三季度的經營現金流為 83 億美元。這包括在調整庫存持有損失和公允價值會計影響後增加 62 億美元的營運資金，這主要是受遠期天然氣價格上漲對 bp 液化天然氣投資組合的影響所推動。

Looking forward, the outlook for working capital remains subject to a number of factors, including price. However, following the build in working capital as a result of rising gas prices since 2021, we now expect the working capital movement to include a release of around $7 billion weighted toward the second half of 2023 and into 2024 primarily as LNG cargoes are delivered.

展望未來，營運資金的前景仍取決於許多因素，包括價格。然而，隨著自 2021 年以來天然氣價格上漲導致營運資金增加，我們現在預計營運資金流動將包括釋放約 70 億美元，重點是在 2023 年下半年和 2024 年，主要是因為液化天然氣貨物的交付。

Turning back to the third quarter. Capital expenditure was $3.2 billion, and disposal proceeds were $600 million. With $2.5 billion of proceeds received by the end of the third quarter, we now expect to realize slightly over $3 billion during 2022, above the prior $2 billion to $3 billion guidance range.

回到第三季。資本支出為 32 億美元，處置收益為 6 億美元。截至第三季度末已收到 25 億美元的收益，我們現在預計 2022 年將實現略高於 30 億美元的收益，高於之前 20 億至 30 億美元的指導範圍。

During the quarter, we repurchased $2.9 billion of shares, and the $3.5 billion program announced for second quarter 2022 results was completed on the 27th of October. And net debt fell for the 10th consecutive quarter to reach $22 billion.

本季度，我們回購了 29 億美元的股票，並於 10 月 27 日完成了為 2022 年第二季度業績宣布的 35 億美元計劃。淨債務連續第 10 個季度下降，達到 220 億美元。

Moving to our disciplined financial frame. Our first priority remains a resilient dividend. This is underpinned by an average cash balance point of around $40 per barrel through 2025. Our second priority is to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating, and we intend to allocate 40% of 2022 surplus cash flow to further strengthening the balance sheet.

轉向我們紀律嚴明的財務框架。我們的首要任務仍然是有彈性的紅利。到 2025 年，平均現金餘額約為每桶 40 美元。我們的第二要務是保持強大的投資級信用評級，我們打算分配 2022 年盈餘現金流的 40% 以進一步加強資產負債表。

Third and fourth, we will continue to invest with discipline into the transition and resilient hydrocarbons. Our capital expenditure guidance for 2022, including inorganics, is now expected to be around $15.5 billion if the acquisition of Archaea Energy completes before year-end. And our medium-term guidance is unchanged at $14 billion to $16 billion per annum.

第三和第四，我們將繼續有紀律地投資於過渡和有彈性的碳氫化合物。如果對 Archaea Energy 的收購在年底前完成，我們現在預計 2022 年的資本支出指導（包括無機物）將達到 155 億美元左右。我們的中期指導意見保持在每年 140 億至 160 億美元不變。

Fifth, we remain committed to returning 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow through share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. Against the authority granted at bp's 2022 AGM to repurchase up to 1.95 billion shares, bp has repurchased 677 million shares at the 31st of October. And with third quarter surplus cash flow of $3.5 billion, we intend to execute a buyback of $2.5 billion prior to reporting fourth quarter results.

第五，我們仍然致力於通過股票回購返還 2022 年 60% 的盈餘現金流，前提是要保持強大的投資級信用評級。根據 bp 在 2022 年年度股東大會上授予的回購至多 19.5 億股的授權，bp 已於 10 月 31 日回購了 6.77 億股。由於第三季度盈餘現金流為 35 億美元，我們打算在報告第四季度業績之前執行 25 億美元的回購。

This brings total announced share buybacks from 2022 surplus cash flow to $8.5 billion, equivalent to 60% of 2022 surplus cash flow year-to-date. In setting the buyback, the Board will continue to take into account factors, including the cumulative level of, and outlook for, surplus cash flow.

這使已宣布的 2022 年盈餘現金流的股票回購總額達到 85 億美元，相當於 2022 年迄今為止盈餘現金流的 60%。在設定回購時，董事會將繼續考慮因素，包括盈餘現金流的累積水平和前景。

Turning to bp's strategic progress, where we have real momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company. Within resilient hydrocarbons, we are accelerating the delivery of our strategy in bioenergy, 1 of our 5 transition growth engines.

談到 bp 的戰略進展，我們在向綜合能源公司轉型方面擁有真正的動力。在彈性碳氫化合物方面，我們正在加速實施我們的生物能源戰略，這是我們 5 個轉型增長引擎之一。

In October, we announced an agreement to acquire Archaea Energy, a leading U.S. biogas company. This transaction, accommodated within our disciplined financial frame, will deepen our participation in the rapidly growing biogas sector, add distinctive value as we integrate biogas supply from Archaea Energy with our experienced trading business and global customer relationships and reduce carbon intensity, supporting our Aim 3.

10 月，我們宣布了一項收購美國領先沼氣公司 Archaea Energy 的協議。這項交易符合我們嚴格的財務框架，將加深我們對快速增長的沼氣行業的參與，在我們將 Archaea Energy 的沼氣供應與我們經驗豐富的貿易業務和全球客戶關係相結合時增加獨特的價值，並降低碳強度，支持我們的目標 3 .

And also in resilient hydrocarbons, we have continued to high grade our portfolio. We have completed the formation of Azul Energy, our new Angolan joint venture with Eni; taken final investment decision on a Cypre gas project offshore Trinidad, a subsea tieback to existing infrastructure; and agreed to divest our Algerian assets to Eni.

在彈性碳氫化合物方面，我們繼續提高我們的投資組合。我們已經完成了與埃尼在安哥拉的新合資企業 Azul Energy 的組建；對特立尼達近海的 Cypre 天然氣項目做出最終投資決定，該項目是對現有基礎設施的海底回接；並同意將我們在阿爾及利亞的資產剝離給埃尼。

In convenience and mobility, we are progressing our strategy in the EV charging and convenience transitions growth engines. In North America, we are advancing our fleet strategy, announcing plans to collaborate with Hertz to install a network of EV charging solutions for Hertz and its customers powered by bp pulse. Hertz is investing to create the largest electric rental fleet in North America, and we look forward to working with them.

在便利性和機動性方面，我們正在推進電動汽車充電和便利性轉型增長引擎的戰略。在北美，我們正在推進我們的車隊戰略，宣布計劃與 Hertz 合作，為 Hertz 及其客戶安裝由 bp pulse 提供支持的 EV 充電解決方案網絡。赫茲正在投資打造北美最大的電動租賃車隊，我們期待與他們合作。

We have expanded our partnership with leading retailer REWE in Germany to install fast, reliable, convenient charging at their sites.

我們擴大了與德國領先零售商 REWE 的合作夥伴關係，以便在他們的站點安裝快速、可靠、方便的充電設備。

And in China, we signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Avatr Technology to accelerate the development of an ultrafast charging network in China.

在中國，我們與 Avatr Technology 簽署了戰略合作協議，以加速中國超快充電網絡的發展。

Finally, we have continued to advance our strategy to create integrated low-carbon energy hubs. In Australia, we have closed a deal to take a 40.5% stake in Asian Renewables Energy Hub. And our 2 bp-led projects in the U.K., H2Teesside and Net Zero Teesside Power, were shortlisted in Phase 2 of the U.K. government's cluster sequencing process for support of CCUS.

最後，我們繼續推進創建綜合低碳能源中心的戰略。在澳大利亞，我們已完成收購 Asian Renewables Energy Hub 40.5% 股權的交易。我們在英國由 bp 牽頭的 2 個項目 H2Teesside 和 Net Zero Teesside Power 入圍了英國政府支持 CCUS 的集群測序流程的第 2 階段。

To summarize, today's results show that bp is performing while transforming. We are strengthening the company, we are delivering on our disciplined financial frame, underpinning our commitment to shareholder distributions. We have real momentum in our transformation to an integrated energy company, and we remain focused on delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

總而言之，今天的結果表明，bp 在轉型中表現出色。我們正在加強公司實力，我們正在履行我們紀律嚴明的財務框架，鞏固我們對股東分配的承諾。我們在向綜合能源公司轉型方面擁有真正的動力，我們仍然專注於為股東創造長期價值。

Thank you for your time. Now let's turn to your questions.

感謝您的時間。現在讓我們轉向你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay. Thank you again, everybody, for listening. We're going to take questions now. (Operator Instructions) And I think we'll turn to the U.S. for the first question and to Paul Cheng at Scotiabank.

好的。再次感謝大家的聆聽。我們現在要回答問題。 （操作員說明）我認為我們將轉向美國解決第一個問題，然後轉向豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Murray, can you tell us what is your estimate for the EU windfall profit tax and also the U.K. windfall profit tax for this year granted that the EU windfall profit tax probably don't have all the details?

Murray，你能告訴我們你對今年歐盟暴利稅和英國暴利稅的估計是多少，因為歐盟暴利稅可能沒有所有細節？

And the second question is that the nature of the Mad Dog commission issue, can you elaborate on that?

第二個問題是 Mad Dog 佣金問題的性質，您能詳細說明一下嗎？

Great, Paul. Thanks for the questions. Let's start off, maybe just stepping back on taxes for 1 minute before I answer your questions. We understand it's a very difficult time for our society right now, and we understand why people focus on our global profits. And we understand the challenges that governments face as they move through this very difficult time.

太好了，保羅。感謝您的提問。讓我們開始吧，在我回答你的問題之前，也許只是退稅 1 分鐘。我們理解現在對我們的社會來說是一個非常困難的時期，我們理解為什麼人們關注我們的全球利潤。我們理解各國政府在度過這個非常困難的時期時所面臨的挑戰。

As a corporation, we're really focused on 2 things: first, investing into the energy system today; and starting the transition of the new energy system. And of course, we pay our taxes, as you asked about.

作為一家公司，我們真正專注於兩件事：第一，投資當今的能源系統；啟動新能源體系轉型。當然，我們會按照您的要求繳納稅款。

So on to the specifics of the taxes, you'll see in the press that we announced, the U.K. windfall profits tax today, we announced for 2022 what we're seeing. To remind you, the tax rate in the U.K. is 65% in the North Sea. We will be paying $2.5 billion this year, including $800 million on the 20% uplift that was enacted a while back. So that's $2.5 billion. And that's -- the $800 million is only on 7 months of applications so far.

那麼關於稅收的具體細節，你會在媒體上看到我們今天宣布的英國暴利稅，我們宣布了 2022 年的情況。提醒一下，英國的稅率在北海是65%。我們今年將支付 25 億美元，其中 8 億美元用於前段時間制定的 20% 的提高。所以這是 25 億美元。那就是——到目前為止，8 億美元僅用於 7 個月的申請。

In the EU, I'm afraid I can't give you an estimate. It's just not certain enough yet. I do think I'll say that our profits in the North Sea are about 15% -- or sorry, our profits in the U.K. are about 15% of global profits. And our profits in the EU are only 5%. So that will give you a sense of magnitude. So I hope that helps on the tax questions.

在歐盟，恐怕我無法給你一個估計。只是還不夠確定。我確實認為我會說我們在北海的利潤約為 15%——或者抱歉，我們在英國的利潤約為全球利潤的 15%。而我們在歐盟的利潤只有5%。所以這會給你一種巨大的感覺。所以我希望這對稅務問題有所幫助。

And then on Mad Dog Phase 2, just commissioning issues, we talked about issues with the [riser] last time around. We're still working our way through that, and we'll update you in February as to when we expect to see startup next year. Thanks, Paul.

然後在 Mad Dog 第 2 階段，只是調試問題，我們上次討論了 [立管] 的問題。我們仍在努力解決這個問題，我們將在 2 月份向您更新我們預計明年何時啟動。謝謝，保羅。

Thanks, Paul. We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein.

謝謝，保羅。我們將接受 Bernstein 的 Os Clint 的下一個問題。

Murray, the -- I saw the White House had a statement last couple of weeks ago in the Clean American Manufacturing that called out Lightsource bp and all the gigawatts they're doing and all the investment levels and local content. I'm just curious if you think that, that might help in any way as we weighed into a potential U.S. windfall tax discussion.

Murray，我看到白宮上週在清潔美國製造中發表了一份聲明，其中提到了 Lightsource bp 和他們正在做的所有千兆瓦以及所有投資水平和本地內容。我只是很好奇你是否認為，這可能會以任何方式幫助我們權衡潛在的美國暴利稅討論。

And ultimately, could you just let us know how Lightsource bp is performing in terms of installations, cost control and really getting to that double-digit return territory, please? That's the first one.

最後，您能否讓我們知道 Lightsource bp 在安裝、成本控制以及真正達到兩位數回報領域方面的表現，好嗎？這是第一個。

Secondly, just on the working capital release. $7 billion seems to reverse over what looks to me like quite an extended period of time into 2024. Is that normal? Or are you selling further -- LNG further across the strip? And maybe a part linked -- I mean a lot of moving pieces, but if a potential gas price cap here in Europe, does that have any unintended consequences for this positioning, please?

其次，就營運資金釋放而言。在我看來，到 2024 年的相當長一段時間內，70 億美元似乎出現了逆轉。這正常嗎？或者你在賣得更遠——整個地帶更遠的液化天然氣？也許有一部分是相關的——我的意思是很多移動的部分，但是如果歐洲有潛在的天然氣價格上限，這是否會對這種定位產生任何意想不到的後果，請問？

Yes. Great. Thanks, Os. Starting on Lightsource bp, the entity is up and humming, 5.4 gigawatts developed. They've got a pipeline of 23 gigawatts. They've hired 600 people now. I think they're operating in greater than 14 countries now.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，奧斯。從 Lightsource bp 開始，該實體正在運行並嗡嗡作響，開發了 5.4 吉瓦。他們有一條 23 吉瓦的管道。他們現在已經僱用了 600 人。我認為他們現在在超過 14 個國家開展業務。

If you take a look at company's house, you can see the financial reports for 2021. That's a bit of a lag, obviously, but you can see that's now published, where revenue is up 88% and EBITDA is up 228% year-on-year.

如果你看一下公司的房子，你會看到 2021 年的財務報告。顯然，這有點滯後，但你可以看到現在已經發布，收入同比增長 88%，EBITDA 同比增長 228% -年。

So performance is pretty solid, Os, if I'm honest. Returns remain in line with our external guidance as well as inflation hits the solar side. We are seeing PPA uplift. I think the last time I looked, we're seeing 10% uplift on solar PPAs.

所以性能非常可靠，Os，如果我說實話。回報率與我們的外部指引保持一致，並且通貨膨脹對太陽能方面造成了影響。我們看到 PPA 提升。我想我上次看的時候，我們看到太陽能 PPA 提高了 10%。

So we remain very happy with Lightsource bp. And just congratulations go to Nick Boyle and team for the fantastic work that they're doing.

所以我們對 Lightsource bp 仍然非常滿意。祝賀 Nick Boyle 和團隊所做的出色工作。

On the working capital release, we're just trying to provide you guys with some guidance about how the working capital will unwind. Obviously, we've had a big build this quarter. It's principally related to the derivative positions that we have on the hedge exchange.

在營運資金釋放方面，我們只是想為大家提供一些有關營運資金如何釋放的指導。顯然，本季度我們有一個很大的建設。這主要與我們在對沖交易所擁有的衍生品頭寸有關。

And the way to think about it is we have a 14 million tonne per annum portfolio right now, and it's growing pretty significantly over the next few years. You'll remember our tagline of 25 by '25, I'm sure, Os, at my age, it's helpful to have those kind of taglines that I can remember easily. 30 by '30 was brilliant as well.

考慮它的方式是，我們現在每年擁有 1400 萬噸的投資組合，並且在未來幾年內會顯著增長。你會記得我們的標語 25 by '25，我敢肯定，Os，在我這個年紀，擁有那些我很容易記住的標語會很有幫助。 30 by '30 也很出色。

So we've got 14.4 MTPA now that we're trading. We've got -- when Freeport comes back online, that's another 4.4 MTPA. Coral has got 3.4 MTPA. Venture, 2 MTPA. Tortue, 2.4 MTPA. So we can touch and feel that wave of LNG that's now coming. And obviously, we risk manage these things as they get closer and closer.

所以我們現在有 14.4 MTPA 進行交易。我們已經 - 當 Freeport 重新上線時，這是另一個 4.4 MTPA。珊瑚有 3.4 MTPA。風險投資，2 MTPA。曲折，2.4 MTPA。所以我們可以觸摸並感受到即將到來的液化天然氣浪潮。顯然，隨著它們越來越近，我們會冒險管理這些事情。

And so with that very large build-out, we're pretty clear that the working capital flow is going to follow the ramp-up inside these LNG contracts. And we've carefully managed the position, both on the OTC and the derivatives, to ensure that we can lock in that profit from the last quarter. And that's why we're disclosing what we're disclosing.

因此，隨著非常大的擴建，我們很清楚營運資金流動將跟隨這些液化天然氣合同的增加。我們仔細管理了場外交易和衍生品的頭寸，以確保我們能夠鎖定上個季度的利潤。這就是為什麼我們要披露我們正在披露的內容。

Now I'll just give one last caveat, craig would caution me. Working capital is incredibly volatile, and it moves all over the place given the scale of our business. But we were just trying to give you a sense of what might happen with the LNG book itself when we give that guidance. I hope that helps, Os.

現在我只給出最後一個警告，克雷格會警告我。營運資金的波動性令人難以置信，而且鑑於我們的業務規模，它會到處流動。但我們只是想讓您了解，當我們提供該指導時，液化天然氣書籍本身可能會發生什麼。我希望這有幫助，Os。

Thanks, Os. We'll take the next question from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

謝謝，奧斯。我們將接受來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 的下一個問題。

I have one on the distribution framework. And when you put out your -- this framework, you probably didn't envisage the kind of environments we're seeing this year, and you've clearly benefited very consistently across oil and gas trading. But you do have some of the limitations on the buybacks. You can only buy 10% of your equity each year, and there's obviously the market -- these limits on a daily basis.

我有一個關於分發框架。當你推出你的——這個框架時，你可能沒有想到我們今年看到的那種環境，而且你顯然在石油和天然氣交易中一直受益匪淺。但是你確實對回購有一些限制。你每年只能購買 10% 的股權，而且顯然有市場——每天都有這些限制。

So if I think about your underlying cash flow, excluding the working capital build, and I always think about how the business is performing, then it would suggest a buyback number, which is actually much larger than you're actually able to execute.

因此，如果我考慮你的基礎現金流，不包括營運資本建設，而且我總是考慮企業的表現，那麼它會建議一個回購數字，這實際上比你實際能夠執行的要大得多。

So the question is, as you're looking forward, how are you thinking about the distribution framework, particularly as the balance sheet will continue to improve quite rapidly? Some of your peers have talked about special dividends and so on. So just to get your thoughts on that.

所以問題是，正如您所期待的那樣，您如何看待分配框架，尤其是在資產負債表將繼續迅速改善的情況下？您的一些同行談到了特別股息等等。所以只是想了解一下你的想法。

And then the second question is on the trading beat. It's quite hard to ascertain the various elements of what goes into your trading business. But is there any way you can break down sort of how much or contribution of domestic U.S. gas trading power and then LNG? Any incremental color on that would be very helpful.

然後第二個問題是關於交易節拍。很難確定進入您的交易業務的各種要素。但是有沒有什麼辦法可以分解美國國內天然氣貿易能力和液化天然氣的貢獻程度？任何增量顏色都會非常有幫助。

Great. Thanks, Biraj. So on distribution framework, first, inside the stock exchange announcement, we saw that there were concerns about our capacity to do our 2022 program. So on the second page of the SCA, we did talk about how much of our program we've completed so far. So 677 million shares completed through October 31, with an annual capacity of 1.95 billion shares. So we don't have any concerns with the upcoming 3 quarters.

偉大的。謝謝，比拉吉。因此，在分配框架方面，首先，在證券交易所公告中，我們看到人們擔心我們執行 2022 計劃的能力。所以在 SCA 的第二頁上，我們確實討論了到目前為止我們已經完成了多少計劃。至10月31日完成6.77億股，年產能19.5億股。所以我們對即將到來的 3 個季度沒有任何擔憂。

Then as we think about our frame moving forward, I suppose I'll retreat back to our 5 priorities. You know what they are, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The fifth priority is obviously what we do with surplus cash flow. And we've said 60% of surplus cash flow will be through share buybacks. When we determine that, we look not only at the accumulated surplus, but we also look forward at what we think the surplus will be in the future.

然後，當我們考慮向前推進我們的框架時，我想我會回到我們的 5 個優先事項。你知道它們是什麼，1、2、3、4、5。第五個優先事項顯然是我們如何處理盈餘現金流。我們說過 60% 的盈餘現金流將來自股票回購。當我們確定這一點時，我們不僅要看累積的盈餘，還要看我們認為未來的盈餘是什麼。

I think as you look forward at our operations, Biraj, we're moving into a very strong time period. We should have Mad Dog Phase 2, Tangguh Train 3; Mauritania, Senegal coming online. At the same time that we have all these LNG build-outs that I've just talked about, where we've got offtake contracts, but we don't deploy the capital, so Freeport, Coral, Venture, Tortue, et cetera.

我認為當你期待我們的運營時，Biraj，我們正在進入一個非常強勁的時期。我們應該有 Mad Dog Phase 2，Tangguh Train 3；毛里塔尼亞、塞內加爾上線。與此同時，我們擁有我剛才談到的所有這些 LNG 建設，我們有承購合同，但我們沒有部署資本，所以 Freeport、Coral、Venture、Tortue 等。

That suggests there's some fairly strong earnings momentum, all else being equal, over the next few years. And far be it for me to suggest the share price would go up, but I would imagine the share price would go up as we start to see that type of earnings growth over the next 2 or 3 years.

這表明在未來幾年內，在其他條件相同的情況下，盈利勢頭相當強勁。我遠不會建議股價會上漲，但我認為隨著我們在未來 2 或 3 年內開始看到這種類型的收益增長，股價會上漲。

So I think for our part, we're fine with buyback as it is now. We don't see any risks with it. We're looking forward to continued strong performance as we move forward over the next few years. And I think we'll be fine on buybacks.

所以我認為就我們而言，我們現在可以接受回購。我們認為它沒有任何風險。我們期待著在未來幾年繼續保持強勁的表現。而且我認為我們會在回購方面做得很好。

Now last thing I'd point out is you -- we have guided at $60 that we'll do $4 billion a year. And what we said is that the rules of thumb work well up to the $100 space that we've encountered so far. So I think that gives you a pretty decent idea of how we think about buybacks when you use our rules of thumb and you look at our guidance around $4 billion a year at $60. Hope that helps, Biraj. Thank you.

現在我要指出的最後一件事是你——我們的指導價是 60 美元，我們每年將做 40 億美元。我們所說的是，經驗法則適用於我們目前遇到的 100 美元空間。因此，我認為當您使用我們的經驗法則並以 60 美元的價格查看我們每年約 40 億美元的指導時，這讓您對我們如何考慮回購有了一個相當不錯的了解。希望有幫助，Biraj。謝謝你。

I think, Biraj, you had a second question on trading.

我想，Biraj，你有第二個關於交易的問題。

Biraj, could you remind me on your trading question?

Biraj，你能提醒我你的交易問題嗎？

Yes. So just the sources of the trading beat, how much -- if we think about domestic gas trading, power trading and then LNG, any incremental color on the split or color would be helpful.

是的。所以只是交易的來源，有多少——如果我們考慮國內天然氣交易、電力交易，然後是液化天然氣，拆分或顏色上的任何增量顏色都會有所幫助。

I think it's a pretty ratable business in North America that they just gradually grow over time. I think it probably makes up 50% of an average quarter would be a way to think about it. And then when you see exceptional swings, it's generally inside the LNG portfolio. Biraj, that's probably about all I can give you.

我認為這在北美是一個相當受歡迎的業務，它們只是隨著時間的推移逐漸增長。我認為它可能占平均季度的 50% 是一種思考方式。然後當你看到異常波動時，它通常在液化天然氣投資組合中。 Biraj，這可能就是我能給你的全部了。

And I think, Biraj, another way to think about it is we obviously had an average trading contribution in the second quarter. That was with Freeport offline for part of it, which is obviously well documented.

我認為，Biraj，另一種思考方式是我們顯然在第二季度有平均交易貢獻。那是在自由港離線的一部分，這顯然是有據可查的。

As you look to the third quarter, we've obviously given guidance around volumes as we look ahead. You can see realizations, and we've described gas trading as exceptional. So I think to get a sense of that, you could probably go back and look at the segment, take a view on volumes realizations and compare 2Q to 3Q to get a sense, just as a way into it, as you try and sort of correlate our superlatives, for choice of a better word.

當你展望第三季度時，我們顯然已經在展望未來時就銷量給出了指導。你可以看到實現，我們將天然氣交易描述為例外。因此，我認為要了解這一點，您可能可以回頭看看該細分市場，了解銷量實現情況並將 2Q 與 3Q 進行比較以了解情況，就像進入它的一種方式一樣，當您嘗試和排序時關聯我們的最高級，以選擇一個更好的詞。

Okay. Thanks, Biraj. We'll take the next question from Alastair Syme.

好的。謝謝，比拉吉。我們將接受 Alastair Syme 的下一個問題。

Murray, just for sake of clarity, when you talk about average and exceptional, I think you've got these words, you've used, I think, for gas and oil trading. Are these referenced versus their own history or against each other? So in other words, does an exceptional trading profit in gas had the same threshold? Is it exceptional trading profit in oil?

默里，為了清楚起見，當你談論平均和例外時，我認為你已經使用了這些詞，我認為你已經使用過天然氣和石油交易。這些參考是針對他們自己的歷史還是相互反對？那麼換句話說，gas 的異常交易利潤是否具有相同的門檻？它是石油的特殊交易利潤嗎？

And then my follow-up question was just on the gas business itself. I'm just interested if you're getting any sort of feedback from customers about the affordability of gas. And any general comments on that would be useful.

然後我的後續問題只是關於天然氣業務本身。我只是想知道您是否從客戶那裡得到了關於天然氣可負擔性的任何反饋。對此的任何一般性評論都是有用的。

Yes. I think the easy answer on the superlatives is that they're equal, so we don't do something different for gas versus oil. So they're equal, Alastair, is the answer to that question.

是的。我認為最簡單的答案是它們是平等的，所以我們不會對天然氣和石油做不同的事情。所以他們是平等的，阿拉斯泰爾，就是這個問題的答案。

As far as customers for natural gas, it just depends which basin you're in around the world. Of course, in the U.S., Henry Hub is running somewhere around $6 -- $5 or $6 right now. I don't think there are any concerns with affordability there.

至於天然氣的客戶，這僅取決於您在世界各地的哪個盆地。當然，在美國，Henry Hub 的售價約為 6 美元——目前為 5 美元或 6 美元。我認為那裡的負擔能力沒有任何問題。

I think inside Europe, what we've seen with the high prices is quite a bit of demand destruction. We've seen, I think, 20% off on industrial demand in Europe through the last season. And we're now seeing, as we enter October, similar levels of consumers turning off natural gas as well and conserving.

我認為在歐洲內部，我們所看到的高價格對需求造成了相當大的破壞。我認為，上一季歐洲的工業需求下降了 20%。我們現在看到，當我們進入 10 月時，類似水平的消費者也在關閉天然氣並節約能源。

So I think it just depends which basin you're in right now as to how do you relate to these things. And generally, the price mechanism is working to drive the behaviors that would balance out supply and demand.

所以我認為這取決於你現在處於哪個盆地，以及你如何與這些事情聯繫起來。一般來說，價格機制正在努力推動平衡供需的行為。

Murray, can I ask on the gas contract, does that mean that customers are reluctant to turn out these sort of prices?

Murray，我能問一下天然氣合同，這是否意味著客戶不願意出這種價格？

Again, it's a basin-by-basin question. If you look to the Far East, customers are starting to want to term out at these levels. They're seeing a desire to lock in long wave-like contracts. You'll have seen our KOGAS deal announced earlier in the year, so that's a specific example of that. So far, Europe, less so, not willing to term out, as you say.

同樣，這是一個逐個流域的問題。如果你看看遠東，客戶開始希望在這些級別上終止。他們看到了鎖定長期波浪式合同的願望。你會看到我們在今年早些時候宣布的 KOGAS 交易，所以這是一個具體的例子。到目前為止，歐洲不太像你所說的那樣，不願意退出。

Thanks, Al. We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs.

謝謝，艾爾。我們將從高盛的 Michele Della Vigna 那裡回答下一個問題。

Craig and Murray, congratulations on the strong results, especially in gas and low carbon. I have two questions here. The first one is on your fair value accounting and the operating working capital move.

Craig 和 Murray，祝賀你們取得了豐碩的成果，尤其是在天然氣和低碳領域。我在這裡有兩個問題。第一個是關於您的公允價值會計和營運營運資金的變動。

You've laid out very clearly the matching of derivatives versus physical, which suggests the release in the second half of '23 and '24. But in the last month, since the end of the quarter, the forward for TTF for the next 12 months has fallen about 30%.

你已經非常清楚地列出了衍生品與實物的匹配，這表明在 23 年和 24 年下半年發布。但在上個月，自本季度末以來，未來 12 個月的 TTF 遠期下跌了約 30%。

So I was wondering if on top of that physical release of the inventories, if there could also be a nearer-term release of operating working capital simply driven by shorter-term price effect.

所以我想知道，除了庫存的實際釋放之外，是否還會有短期價格效應驅動的運營營運資金的短期釋放。

And then my second question is on your comment around higher turnaround activity in refining, whether that would include Whiting in the fourth quarter.

然後我的第二個問題是關於你對煉油行業更高周轉活動的評論，這是否包括第四季度的 Whiting。

Yes. Craig, do you want to comment on the TAR first and then I'll tackle the FVA and working cap question?

是的。克雷格，你想先對 TAR 發表評論，然後我再解決 FVA 和工作上限問題嗎？

Yes. We have commented, as you've picked up, Michele, we don't typically talk specifically into refining portfolio region-by-region factors for competitive reasons, so I couldn't comment specifically on that. But other than to note, turnarounds are elevated into the fourth quarter.

是的。我們已經評論過，正如你所說，米歇爾，出於競爭原因，我們通常不會具體討論逐個區域因素的精煉投資組合，所以我無法對此發表具體評論。但需要注意的是，轉機率上升到第四季度。

Great. Thanks, Craig. On -- fair value and working cap are 2 very different things, Michele, as you well know. On fair value accounting effects, that will move around with what we call the liquid window, a couple of years of contracted gas. And we mark to market the contracts at the end of each quarter.

偉大的。謝謝，克雷格。關於 - 公允價值和工作上限是兩個非常不同的東西，米歇爾，正如你所知。就公允價值會計效應而言，這將隨著我們所說的液體窗口，即幾年的合同天然氣而移動。我們在每個季度末對合約進行盯市。

So if -- I think if you were to close today, obviously, there would be a fair value reversal probably in line with what we saw in 3Q, but that is very separate from working capital, which is all about how we manage the trading book and how we manage our working capital position with the derivatives we have.

因此，如果——我認為如果你今天收盤，顯然，公允價值可能會發生逆轉，可能與我們在第三季度看到的情況一致，但這與營運資金完全不同，營運資金與我們如何管理交易有關這本書以及我們如何使用我們擁有的衍生品來管理我們的營運資金頭寸。

And that's why it's a different sort of guidance now, where we're saying that we've locked it in and we expect these profits -- we expect this working capital to unwind in '23 and '24.

這就是為什麼它現在是一種不同類型的指導，我們說我們已經鎖定它並且我們期望這些利潤 - 我們預計這些營運資金將在 23 和 24 年解除。

Now we also have a big oil position. As you know, we have power positions, et cetera, so that can create volatility in the fourth quarter in working capital. And all I'd say is it's very, very difficult to predict right now what will be happening with pricing in 4Q. There's just a lot moving around, Michele, so I'd hesitate to provide any guidance.

現在我們也有很大的石油頭寸。如您所知，我們擁有權力地位等，因此可能會在第四季度造成營運資金波動。我要說的是，現在很難預測第四季度的定價會發生什麼。米歇爾，周圍有很多人在走動，所以我不願提供任何指導。

Thanks, Michele. We'll take the next question from Lydia at Barclays.

謝謝，米歇爾。我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia 的下一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. The first one, to come back to the cash returns, Murray. And when I'm thinking about how you allocate cash flow, is there an element where there's a lot of opportunities like Archaea out there that [you're going to go] actually we want to do those and that then translates through to sort of lesser cash flow and, therefore, lower buybacks?

兩個問題，如果可以的話。第一個，回到現金回報，穆雷。當我在考慮如何分配現金流量時，是否有一個元素有很多機會，比如 Archaea 那裡 [you're going to go] 實際上我們想做這些，然後轉化為某種現金流量減少，因此回購量減少？

Is that how we think about it because it seems like you've done the Archaea deal for $4 billion, which is a really interesting deal? But that then does that translate through to the lower buyback relative to last quarter?

我們是這樣想的，因為看起來你以 40 億美元的價格完成了 Archaea 交易，這是一筆非常有趣的交易？但這是否會轉化為相對於上一季度較低的回購？

And the second one, I thought, is a little bit difficult. But if I -- and thank you for the comments earlier around safety. And -- but can I just check, when you're looking at -- so there was a fire at Whiting and the Toledo tragedy, and is there anything -- where you're looking at -- when the operations were transferred over to kind of being run within -- alongside the upstream, is there anything you're looking and going, actually, maybe something is not working?

我認為第二個有點困難。但是，如果我 - 並感謝您早些時候關於安全的評論。而且 - 但我可以檢查一下嗎，當你在看 - 所以懷廷和托萊多的悲劇發生了火災，當行動轉移到有點像在內部運行——沿著上游，有沒有你正在尋找和去的東西，實際上，也許有什麼東西不起作用？

Great. Thanks, Lydia. I think on the second comment, safety absolutely remains our #1 priority, no doubt about that, as you know. It was a tragic accident in Toledo with 2 brothers being killed. Our thoughts go out to the families involved. We're cooperating with the investigations now, and we'll learn everything we possibly can on that moving forward.

偉大的。謝謝，莉迪亞。我認為關於第二條評論，安全絕對是我們的第一要務，這一點毫無疑問，如你所知。這是托萊多發生的一起悲慘事故，有 2 名兄弟喪生。我們的想法與所涉及的家庭有關。我們現在正在配合調查，並且我們將在前進的過程中盡可能地了解一切。

I think, remember, during reinvents, we put all high hazard operations under Gordon Birrell. So we centralized high hazard operations under Gordon Birrell, and we remain confident that, as we move forward, we'll learn these lessons and continue to build a stronger and safer bp. So I think that's what I'd say on that question.

我想，請記住，在重塑過程中，我們將所有高風險操作都交給了 Gordon Birrell。因此，我們將高風險業務集中在 Gordon Birrell 的領導下，我們仍然相信，隨著我們的前進，我們將吸取這些教訓，並繼續建立一個更強大、更安全的 bp。所以我想這就是我在這個問題上要說的。

On cash returns, no change to financial frame is my answer, Lydia, 5 priorities. And priorities #3 and 4 are on capital. And what we've said is that midterm guidance of $14 billion to $16 billion is unchanged. It includes both organic and inorganic capital. You can see that our run rate this year is about $12-ish billion on organic, so that gave us the capacity to do some inorganics.

關於現金回報，我的答案是不改變財務框架，Lydia，5 個優先事項。第三和第四優先事項是資本。我們所說的是 140 億至 160 億美元的中期指導沒有改變。它包括有機資本和無機資本。你可以看到我們今年的有機產品運行率約為 120 億美元，這讓我們有能力做一些無機產品。

As we move into 2023, obviously, we'll have a bit more organic capital. If Archaea completes, that will bump up the organic capital a bit. But we'll continue to have capacity inside that for both organic and inorganic.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，顯然，我們將擁有更多的有機資本。如果 Archaea 完成，那將稍微增加有機資本。但我們將繼續擁有有機和無機的能力。

But there is no change to the financial frame. We still have the capacity to grow the dividend, 4% per year at $60 is priority 1. And priority 5, we still have the capacity to do $4 billion of buybacks a year at $60, and you can use our rules of thumb to figure out what it might look like at higher levels.

但財務框架沒有變化。我們仍然有能力增加股息，每年 4%，60 美元是優先事項 1。優先事項 5，我們仍然有能力每年以 60 美元的價格進行 40 億美元的回購，你可以使用我們的經驗法則來計算找出它在更高層次上的樣子。

So I think I gave the boring answer, Lydia, of no change to guidance.

所以我想我給出了無聊的答案，莉迪亞，沒有改變指導。

Thanks, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn. Peter.

謝謝，莉迪亞。我們將從 Redburn 的 Peter Low 那裡回答下一個問題。彼得。

So the first question was just, can you comment on inflation, where you're seeing it across your portfolio and what you're doing to mitigate it, where it is coming through?

所以第一個問題只是，你能評論一下通貨膨脹嗎？你在投資組合中看到它的地方，你正在做什麼來減輕它，它是從哪裡來的？

And then the second was obviously a very clarification. So I think you just said that the $14 billion to $16 billion CapEx guidance in 2023 to 2025 would include any future potential inorganic spend.

然後第二個顯然是一個非常明確的說明。所以我想你剛剛說過 2023 年到 2025 年 140 億美元到 160 億美元的資本支出指導將包括任何未來潛在的無機支出。

Yes. Peter, yes, that second one is super easy, yes. Our guidance, our 5 financial priorities are unchanged. And our midterm capital guidance of $14 billion to $16 billion includes organics and inorganics. So no change there.

是的。彼得，是的，第二個非常簡單，是的。我們的指導，我們的 5 個財務優先事項沒有改變。我們 140 億美元至 160 億美元的中期資本指導包括有機物和無機物。所以那裡沒有變化。

Inflation, I can't give you much of an update. Since last quarter, nothing's really changed. From a capital perspective, the place that we've seen inflation in 2022 is Lower 48, where, net-net, we're seeing 10% inflation rates. Once we negotiate through the contracts, that's really the only place with inflation inside the CapEx space in the historic upstream.

通貨膨脹，我不能給你太多更新。自上個季度以來，一切都沒有真正改變。從資本的角度來看，我們在 2022 年看到通貨膨脹的地方是 Lower 48，在那裡，我們看到 10% 的通貨膨脹率。一旦我們通過合同進行談判，這實際上是歷史上游資本支出空間內唯一存在通貨膨脹的地方。

I think as you look across the downstream business, energy prices are quite challenging, obviously. It shows up in our top line and our bottom line. But we probably had somewhere between $1 billion and $1.5 billion of additional fuel costs and energy costs inside our downstream business over, give or take, the past year.

我認為當你審視下游業務時，能源價格顯然具有相當大的挑戰性。它出現在我們的頂線和底線。但在過去的一年裡，我們的下游業務可能有 10 億到 15 億美元的額外燃料成本和能源成本，無論是給予還是接受。

And we've started to see some pretty material numbers inside logistics and wages, probably a couple of hundred million dollars that are impacting cash cost as well.

我們已經開始在物流和工資方面看到一些非常重要的數字，可能還有幾億美元也在影響現金成本。

Inside low carbon, no real change. Solar, we were seeing a 30% increase in solar cost -- solar panel costs, but that was being compensated for our returns with a 10% uplift in the PPA.

內部低碳，沒有真正的改變。太陽能，我們看到太陽能成本增加了 30%——太陽能電池板成本，但這通過 PPA 提高 10% 來補償我們的回報。

In offshore wind, no change to the last update we gave you, where net-net we were seeing a 5% increase in the overall cost. But again, the PPAs would uplift to offset that.

在海上風電方面，我們上次更新沒有變化，我們看到總成本增加了 5%。但同樣，PPA 會提升以抵消這一點。

As we look out to 2023, we're watching the indices carefully. And obviously, given recessionary pressures in the world, we're starting to see many of the metal indices drop a significant amount. So we'll have to see how that evolves and what supply chain strategy we have as we move into 2023. Thanks, Peter.

展望 2023 年，我們正在仔細觀察指數。顯然，鑑於世界經濟衰退的壓力，我們開始看到許多金屬指數大幅下跌。因此，我們必須看看它是如何演變的，以及我們在進入 2023 年時擁有什麼樣的供應鏈戰略。謝謝，彼得。

Thank you, Peter. We'll take the next question from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

謝謝你，彼得。我們將接受法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona 的下一個問題。

Congratulations on the numbers. Murray, my first question, obviously, interest rates are rising. So one expects the NPV of your decommissioning and other liabilities to drop. Do you anticipate -- or do you hope that your credit rating may improve in the next, I don't know, year or so? And if it did, what would be the implications of, if any, for the financial frame? In other words, how does it change perhaps the order of the financial priorities?

祝賀數字。默里，我的第一個問題，顯然，利率正在上升。因此，人們預計您的退役和其他負債的淨現值會下降。您是否預計——或者您是否希望您的信用評級在接下來的一年左右（我不知道）會有所提高？如果確實如此，對金融框架有何影響（如果有的話）？換句話說，它可能如何改變財務優先順序？

And then the second question, going back to the Archaea acquisition of renewable natural gas. Californian LCFS credit values have more or less halved over the past year. Obviously, R&D economics do depend on these credits. I'm just curious how you approach this. What would you assume happens to those credit values long term in your evaluation of that acquisition?

然後是第二個問題，回到古生菌獲取可再生天然氣的問題。加州的 LCFS 信用值在過去一年中或多或少減半。顯然，研發經濟學確實依賴於這些學分。我只是好奇你是如何處理這個問題的。在您對該收購的評估中，您認為這些信用價值長期會發生什麼變化？

Yes. Great. Thanks. So o Archaea, for those of you that don't know, Archaea is a biogas company in the United States. We announced the acquisition of it a month or 2 ago now. How time flies. It's a fantastic opportunity for us. It's a great team. They've got a fantastic hopper of 80 development along with the 50 facilities they are already operating, with the capacity to grow production from 6 MBD to 30 MBD.

是的。偉大的。謝謝。所以 o Archaea，對於那些不知道的人來說，Archaea 是美國的一家沼氣公司。我們在一兩個月前宣布收購它。時光飛逝。這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會。這是一個偉大的團隊。他們擁有 80 個開發的夢幻般的料斗以及他們已經運營的 50 個設施，具有將產量從 6 MBD 增加到 30 MBD 的能力。

And as you point out, Irene, the assets are worth an awful lot because of the RNG credit system inside the United States, which has been durable through multiple governments all the way back to 2007.

艾琳，正如你指出的那樣，由於美國內部的 RNG 信用體系，這些資產的價值非常高，該體系一直持續到 2007 年的多個政府。

I think when we look back at this, we just use average pricing as we think about how to price these things. Sometimes, prices will go up. Sometimes, prices will go down. Much like all energy complex systems, things are very, very volatile. And we'll just position ourselves to make sure that we can price effectively against history as we move through over time.

我認為當我們回顧這一點時，我們只是在考慮如何為這些東西定價時使用平均定價。有時，價格會上漲。有時，價格會下降。就像所有能源複雜系統一樣，事物非常非常不穩定。我們只是定位自己，以確保隨著時間的推移，我們能夠根據歷史有效定價。

So we priced it based on history. It's -- if you look through COVID, you can almost go and you plot yourself some charts. You can see where it's been priced probably for the past 5, 7 years. So I think that gives you a good indication of where we priced it.

所以我們根據歷史給它定價。它是——如果你瀏覽 COVID，你幾乎可以去為自己繪製一些圖表。您可以查看過去 5、7 年的定價情況。所以我認為這可以很好地說明我們的定價位置。

We're very excited about it. We see huge opportunity inside this. And we remain very comfortable that we'll hit the double-digit returns that we talked to the market about. And I think we'll go well beyond that. I think there are going to be interesting opportunities in hydrogen, CCUS with it. Synfuels will start to come into play as well given the new IRA.

我們對此感到非常興奮。我們在其中看到了巨大的機會。我們仍然很高興我們將達到我們與市場談到的兩位數回報。我認為我們會做得更好。我認為氫、CCUS 領域將會有有趣的機會。考慮到新的 IRA，合成燃料也將開始發揮作用。

And I think as that organization gets closer to bp, we'll look at municipal solid waste together. We're just going to have a fantastic option set to play here that will create a lot of value for our shareholders and help with the transition. So very, very comfortable with that transaction.

我認為隨著該組織越來越接近 bp，我們將一起研究城市固體廢物。我們將在這裡設置一個很棒的選擇，這將為我們的股東創造很多價值並幫助過渡。對這筆交易非常非常滿意。

Interest rates do appear to be rising. We did have a write-back of some of our -- this is your first question. Interest rates are rising. We did have a decrease in our decommissioning liability because of that. And we'll see what happens with interest rates in 4Q and beyond to understand what's happening. That will strengthen, obviously, the balance sheet. It will be less liabilities.

利率似乎確實在上升。我們確實回寫了一些——這是你的第一個問題。利率正在上升。因此，我們確實減少了退役責任。我們將看到第四季度及以後的利率情況，以了解正在發生的事情。顯然，這將加強資產負債表。這將減少負債。

As far as what the ratings agencies will do, I think I'll just smile. We're looking forward to continuing to maintain strong investment-grade credit ratings. Our metrics are very, very solid. But I'm not sure I'm the right person to forecast what will happen with our rating. You'd have to ask S&P or Moody's or Fitch, I think, with a smile is what I'd say.

至於評級機構會做什麼，我想我會微笑。我們期待繼續保持強大的投資級信用評級。我們的指標非常非常可靠。但我不確定我是否是預測我們的評級會發生什麼的合適人選。你必須問標準普爾或穆迪或惠譽，我想，我會微笑著說。

As far as what we're going to do moving forward, the Board will debate, as they always do, at fourth quarter results what's the right thing to do. And we'll lay out the 2023 priorities as well, including what we do with surplus and what we do with debt, as you say.

至於我們下一步要做什麼，董事會將一如既往地在第四季度的結果中討論什麼是正確的事情。正如你所說，我們還將製定 2023 年的優先事項，包括我們如何處理盈餘和如何處理債務。

We have made tremendous progress on debt, 10 quarters in a row, down to $22 billion. We're very, very pleased with that. And we just need to continue following that financial frame. I hope that helps, Irene.

我們在債務方面取得了巨大進展，連續 10 個季度降至 220 億美元。我們對此非常非常滿意。我們只需要繼續遵循該財務框架。我希望這有幫助，艾琳。

Great. Thank you, Irene. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann, Exane.

偉大的。謝謝你，艾琳。我們將接受來自 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann 的下一個問題。

Yes, Craig. Murray, a couple, if I might. Firstly, just going back to the share buyback and trying to understand the 677 million bought to date. The question provided simply that if I look at the shares you bought back since your AGM, the number is materially higher. So question one, what am I missing?

是的，克雷格。默里，一對，如果可以的話。首先，回到股票回購併試圖了解迄今為止購買的 6.77 億股。問題只是簡單地提出，如果我看一下您自年度股東大會以來回購的股票，這個數字要高得多。那麼問題一，我錯過了什麼？

And the second question is on Azul and whether you could just walk us through the cash flow movements or line items that have been impacted by Azul this quarter. That's it, Murray.

第二個問題是關於 Azul 的，你是否可以帶我們了解本季度受 Azul 影響的現金流量變動或項目。就是這樣，默里。

Great. Thanks, Lucas. Craig, do you want to answer the share buyback question, please, and I'll take Azul?

偉大的。謝謝，盧卡斯。克雷格，你想回答股票回購問題嗎，我會選擇 Azul？

Yes, yes. Thanks, Lucas. Yes, on the first one, just to repeat what Murray says and what we see in the SCA firstly, the authority at the 2022 AGM enables us to repurchase 1.95 billion shares. And as Murray said, at the 31st of October, we've repurchased 677 million shares.

是的是的。謝謝，盧卡斯。是的，在第一個方面，首先要重複默里所說的和我們在 SCA 中看到的內容，2022 年年度股東大會的授權使我們能夠回購 19.5 億股股票。正如默里所說，在 10 月 31 日，我們回購了 6.77 億股股票。

The authority actually runs AGM to AGM. And the AGM in 2021, the resolution was Resolution 11, gives the company the authority to repurchase shares after the following AGM. And basically, it states if the company has agreed before that date to purchase ordinary shares, whether these purchases will or may be executed after the authority terminates.

該機構實際上將 AGM 運行到 AGM。而 2021 年的年度股東大會，決議為第 11 號決議，賦予公司在下一次年度股東大會後回購股份的權力。基本上，它說明如果公司在該日期之前同意購買普通股，這些購買是否會或可能在授權終止後執行。

So in short, the only share buyback that relates to this current program is the one that we announced in the second quarter. Anything prior to that was covered under the 2021 authority, which is probably the disconnect you're seeing, Lucas, in your calculation, hence, the numbers that we've quoted in the SCA.

所以簡而言之，與當前計劃相關的唯一股票回購是我們在第二季度宣布的。在此之前的任何事情都在 2021 年的授權範圍內，這可能是你在計算中看到的脫節，盧卡斯，因此，我們在 SCA 中引用的數字。

And on Azul, really pleased to complete that transaction. Obviously, Lucas, it's a fantastic growth business. It produces about 200 MBD now, growing to 250 MBD over the next 5 years.

在 Azul 上，非常高興完成那筆交易。顯然，盧卡斯，這是一項非常棒的增長業務。它現在生產約 200 MBD，在未來 5 年內增長到 250 MBD。

We look forward to getting after cost synergies. It operates at about $12 to $14 a barrel. We'll see what we can do there. So we're investing about $2 billion of CapEx a year inside the entity between Eni and ourselves.

我們期待獲得成本協同效應。它的運營價格約為每桶 12 至 14 美元。我們將看看我們能在那裡做些什麼。因此，我們每年在 Eni 和我們之間的實體內投資約 20 億美元的資本支出。

And we'll look for further opportunities to more -- do more there.

我們將尋找更多的機會在那裡做更多的事情。

We have a quarterly distribution to shareholders. We're not interested in trapping cash. So we'll be sweeping the entity, making sure that it has what it needs. And overall, very pleased.

我們每季度向股東分配一次。我們對圈套現金不感興趣。所以我們將清掃實體，確保它有它需要的東西。總的來說，非常高興。

From an accountings perspective, I suspect you know what has happened. Obviously, we show this as a different type of entity now, so it doesn't show up in EBITDA, et cetera. And we get a one-line net income post tax, and we get cash flow through the dividend as well. But I'm sure you knew that.

從會計的角度來看，我想你知道發生了什麼。顯然，我們現在將其顯示為不同類型的實體，因此它不會出現在 EBITDA 等中。我們得到了一條線的稅後淨收入，我們也通過股息獲得了現金流。但我相信你知道這一點。

The only other thing to mention between Eni and ourselves is they had a larger working capital in the transaction, so they've had a higher distribution than we have in the third quarter relative to our distribution. You might see that in the proceeds, and that's simply because they had a larger amount of cash built up inside the entity than we had. I hope that helps, Lucas.

Eni 和我們之間唯一要提到的另一件事是他們在交易中擁有更大的營運資金，因此相對於我們的分配，他們的分配比我們第三季度的分配更高。你可能會在收益中看到這一點，這僅僅是因為他們在實體內部積累的現金比我們多。我希望這有幫助，盧卡斯。

Yes. Just -- if I can just spend one moment, Murray. So just to be clear, I think, I mean, Eni indicated a short $1 billion or so of capital in from Azul this quarter. The reason that will have been higher than -- or appears to have been higher than was the case of bp is in effect an element of that was the repayment of working capital. Is that simple interpretation with -- from a cash perspective?

是的。只是 - 如果我能花一點時間，Murray。所以要明確一點，我認為，我的意思是，Eni 本季度表示從 Azul 獲得了 10 億美元左右的資金。將高於或似乎高於 bp 的情況的原因實際上是其中一個因素是營運資金的償還。從現金的角度來看，這是簡單的解釋嗎？

Correct, Lucas, yes.

正確，盧卡斯，是的。

Thanks, Lucas. We'll take the next question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan.

謝謝，盧卡斯。我們將從摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 那裡回答下一個問題。

Craig and Murray, so a couple of questions have already been answered. But just coming back to sort of trying to understand or just if you could provide perhaps a clearer frame around how the cash return framework is linked to correlate the trading results.

Craig 和 Murray，所以已經回答了幾個問題。但只是回到某種程度上試圖理解，或者你是否可以提供一個更清晰的框架，說明現金回報框架如何與交易結果相關聯。

And as far as your definition of exceptional versus normal and sort of going a couple of standard deviations now away from what you've typically achieved, and I'm just trying to make that link back into cash return or a frame that you could provide help, it just would be quite useful going forward.

至於你對異常與正常的定義，以及現在與你通常取得的成就相差幾個標準偏差，我只是想把這種聯繫回到現金回報或你可以提供的框架中幫助，這將非常有用。

The second question refers to your oil volume outlook in 2023 and beyond. Is there any way -- I mean, hypothetically, you could add volumes in your portfolio if you chose to break rank on your CapEx. I just want to understand your ability to add volumes in the context of your short-cycle [offer] set against decline rates and supply chain bottlenecks.

第二個問題是關於 2023 年及以後的石油產量展望。有什麼辦法——我的意思是，假設，如果你選擇打破資本支出的排名，你可以在你的投資組合中增加數量。我只想了解您在針對下降率和供應鏈瓶頸的短週期 [報價] 背景下增加銷量的能力。

Great. Thanks, Christyan. We did have an exceptional quarter in the third quarter in gas trading. I think we provide you with enough transparency that you guys can figure out what it is without me stating the number. Remember, we had an average quarter in 2Q and an exceptional quarter in 1Q. So that's the level of earnings, and I'm pretty sure you guys can figure that out yourselves.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯蒂安。我們在第三季度的天然氣交易中確實有一個特殊的季度。我認為我們為你們提供了足夠的透明度，你們可以在我不說出數字的情況下弄清楚它是什麼。請記住，我們在第二季度有一個平均季度，在第一季度有一個特殊的季度。這就是收入水平，我很確定你們自己能弄清楚。

As far as the -- how does that impact the financial frame, the answer is it doesn't, really. It's just a contributor to cash flow, obviously, either an add or a subtract based on working capital move. And that just goes into the surplus accumulated today plus the outlook.

至於 - 這如何影響財務框架，答案是它不會，真的。它只是現金流的一個貢獻者，顯然，根據營運資金的變動增加或減少。這剛剛進入今天積累的盈餘加上前景。

And the Board takes a balanced position. We look through what's the accumulated surplus to date. And we understand what 60% would be, which is effectively what we pay -- what we've announced in buybacks this quarter.

董事會採取平衡的立場。我們查看迄今為止的累計盈餘是多少。我們知道 60% 是多少，這實際上是我們支付的——我們在本季度的回購中宣布的。

And then we looked at the outlook. And earlier, on Paul Cheng's question, I went through how we're feeling about the outlook. We're pretty bullish right now on the outlook moving forward, which I think will impact shareholder returns as we move forward.

然後我們看了前景。早些時候，在 Paul Cheng 的問題上，我回顧了我們對前景的看法。我們現在非常看好未來的前景，我認為這將在我們前進的過程中影響股東回報。

On 2023 CapEx, maybe a few things to say. Obviously, we'll have some projects finishing off in the historic upstream. We're spending about $8 billion of capital in 2022 in the upstream. Some projects come off. We've got the accounting effects of Iraq and Angola as well, which then gives us room to spend more on 2023 CapEx in the upstream.

關於 2023 年的資本支出，也許有幾句話要說。顯然，我們將在具有歷史意義的上游完成一些項目。到 2022 年，我們將在上游投入約 80 億美元的資金。一些項目開始了。我們也得到了伊拉克和安哥拉的會計影響，這讓我們有空間在上游的 2023 年資本支出上花費更多。

We're looking at bringing 2 rigs into the Gulf of Mexico, a fixed and a work-over rig. We're looking at bringing another 2 to 3 rigs into the Lower 48 between the Haynesville and the Permian. We're looking at bringing another couple of rigs into the North Sea.

我們正在考慮將 2 個鑽井平台引入墨西哥灣，一個是固定鑽井平台，一個是修井鑽井平台。我們正在考慮將另外 2 到 3 個鑽井平台帶到 Haynesville 和 Permian 之間的 Lower 48。我們正在考慮將另外幾個鑽井平台帶到北海。

So we are looking around at the highest quality opportunities across the business. And as we work through our 2023 budgeting process, we'll come back and talk to you about what we're doing with capital in 2023 in February.

因此，我們正在尋找整個企業中最優質的機會。在我們完成 2023 年預算流程的過程中，我們將在 2 月份回來與您討論我們在 2023 年的資本計劃。

I suppose the key challenge these days is supply chain challenges, and can you get rigs, can you get crews, can you get a frac fleet, can you get sand. So it's really the supply chain that's choking activity right now. We won't ramp up if we don't have a secure supply chain at reasonable prices. So I hope that helps.

我想現在的主要挑戰是供應鏈挑戰，你能得到鑽井平台，你能得到船員，你能得到壓裂船隊，你能得到沙子嗎？因此，現在真正令人窒息的是供應鏈。如果我們沒有價格合理的安全供應鏈，我們就不會增加產量。所以我希望能有所幫助。

Yes, just to come back on the first one. I'd just it put another way. I mean, that 60%, is that anchored on a normal trading environment? In other words, if you have an exceptional trading environment that would then drive an exceptional dividend like a special.

是的，只是回到第一個。我只是換一種說法。我的意思是，這 60% 是基於正常的交易環境嗎？換句話說，如果你有一個特殊的交易環境，那麼就會像特別股一樣帶來特殊的股息。

Just trying to understand what your through cycle sort of anchor in terms of your cash return from it versus what is now 2, 3 standard deviations away in trading, if that makes sense sort of like it -- you sustain.

只是想了解你的整個週期在你的現金回報方面的錨點與現在交易中的 2、3 個標準偏差，如果這有點像它 - 你維持。

Yes, Christyan, I don't think we can be clear on our financial frame. 5 priorities, 60% of surplus is the fifth priority. Doesn't matter what an individual business does inside the portfolio. We've just tried to be absolutely crystal clear with the market that our aim for 2022, 60%.

是的，克里斯蒂安，我不認為我們可以清楚地了解我們的財務框架。 5個優先級，60%的盈餘是第五個優先級。單個業務在投資組合中做什麼並不重要。我們剛剛試圖讓市場絕對清楚我們的目標是 2022 年，達到 60%。

So yes, some businesses do better. Yes, some businesses do worse. But overall, it just moves, and it just gets added together into the overall outlook for the company. And 60% is our answer for 2022. Thanks for the questions, Christyan.

所以是的，有些企業做得更好。是的，有些企業做得更糟。但總的來說，它只是在移動，它只是被添加到公司的整體前景中。 60% 是我們 2022 年的答案。謝謝你的提問，Christyan。

Thanks. We'll take the next question from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies.

謝謝。我們將從 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo 那裡回答下一個問題。

First question is I noticed that you have Algeria in column of your divestments, portfolio high-grading there. I just wanted to check on where do you think these assets sit in terms of your EBITDA -- unit EBITDA asset distribution that you showed us back into the 4Q presentation.

第一個問題是我注意到您在撤資一欄中有阿爾及利亞，那裡的投資組合評級很高。我只是想檢查一下你認為這些資產在你的 EBITDA 方面的位置 - 你向我們展示的單位 EBITDA 資產分佈返回到第四季度的演示文稿中。

The other question I have is -- relates to, last year, we have seen -- back to the buyback, last year, we have seen sort of the Board taking a decision to smooth over sort of any short-term volatility in surplus cash. And again, you referred to this also at the time of the Archaea acquisition.

我的另一個問題是——與去年我們看到的——回到回購，去年，我們看到董事會做出了某種程度上的決定，以平息盈餘現金的任何短期波動.再一次，你在收購 Archaea 時也提到了這一點。

Just wondering what kind of decision led to not to smooth over the effect of the large working capital outflow in setting the buyback for this quarter. And what are the circumstances in which this will be considered as an exceptional and then, therefore, trying to average the effect over the following quarters?

只是想知道什麼樣的決定導致無法消除大量營運資金流出對本季度回購的影響。在什麼情況下這將被視為例外情況，然後試圖在接下來的幾個季度中平均影響？

Great. Thanks, Giacomo. On Algeria, yes, it's a late life asset for us. PSAs are expiring relatively soon. They're fixed price, and so they're in the lower bucket margin that we talked about back with you. That will be about a year ago now, I think. So I think that answers that question.

偉大的。謝謝，賈科莫。在阿爾及利亞，是的，這對我們來說是晚年的財富。 PSA 即將到期。它們是固定價格，因此它們處於我們與您討論過的較低的桶邊際。那將是大約一年前的事了，我想。所以我認為這回答了這個問題。

On fin frame, how are we thinking about fin frame and buybacks, I think I just need to go back to the boilerplate language, guys. We take a look at the accumulated surplus to date. We look at the outlook for the surplus. We look at the macro environment. And that's what helps the Board determine -- the determination of the amount of buyback this quarter. Obviously, it's dead on 60%, I believe, for 2022, and that just basically follows the formula.

在鰭框架上，我們如何考慮鰭框架和回購，我想我只需要回到樣板語言，伙計們。我們來看看迄今為止的累計盈餘。我們看一下盈餘的前景。我們看宏觀環境。這就是幫助董事會確定本季度回購金額的決定。顯然，我相信到 2022 年，它已經死在 60% 上，這基本上遵循了公式。

As we look out to the fourth quarter, obviously, we hope that the Archaea transaction completes in the fourth quarter. And if that's to occur, the Board will have to take a decision around how they deal with that. But that's a decision that will be made by the Board in February, and I'm not going to prejudge what that is.

展望第四季度，顯然，我們希望 Archaea 交易在第四季度完成。如果發生這種情況，董事會將不得不決定他們如何處理。但這是董事會將在 2 月份做出的決定，我不會預先判斷那是什麼。

But we do look backwards, we do look forwards. We've told you $4 billion a year at $60. And we've told you that the rules of thumb are a good guidance for how we think about this. So I'd just encourage you to go back to the $4 billion at $60 and the rules of thumb to help understand how we think about it. And I think we'll just leave that one there.

但我們確實向後看，我們確實向前看。我們已經告訴過你 40 億美元，每年 60 美元。我們已經告訴過您，經驗法則可以很好地指導我們如何思考這個問題。因此，我只是鼓勵您以 60 美元的價格回到 40 億美元和經驗法則，以幫助理解我們的想法。我想我們就把那個留在那裡。

Craig?

克雷格？

Yes. And I think one other thing I'd add is we've also told you that as it relates to working capital, $7 billion is expected to release through the second half of 2023 and into 2024 when you consider the impact of that working capital on forward-looking cash outlook, which, as Murray has explained, is something the Board considers as well.

是的。我想我要補充的另一件事是，我們還告訴過你，由於它與營運資金有關，當你考慮到營運資金對前瞻性現金前景，正如 Murray 所解釋的那樣，這也是董事會考慮的問題。

So in terms of the working capital impacts as it relates to operating cash and how that feeds through to surplus cash, you've also got a sense now as you look ahead about how that working capital releases alongside the guidance, as Murray says, on the $4 billion at $60 and the rules of thumb above that.

因此，就與運營現金相關的營運資金影響以及它如何轉化為盈餘現金而言，您現在也有一種感覺，因為您展望未來營運資金將如何與指導一起釋放，正如 Murray 所說， 60 美元的 40 億美元以及高於此的經驗法則。

Okay. Great. We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

好的。偉大的。我們將接受來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 的下一個問題。

Yes. Look, frankly, a lot has already been covered, but I want to sort of ask sort of two more. So $2.5 billion of incremental buybacks in the fourth quarter, that is sort of 2.5% of the share count. So if that's sort of -- so the last 4 years, you have another 10%. And I was wondering, building on the discussion we had last quarter, whether it would be sort of fair to say that, well, every $2.5 billion of buybacks you do per quarter, every 2.5%, we should now start to anticipate that the buyback for the fourth quarter will add 2.5 percentage points to DPS growth sort of at the next announcement.

是的。看，坦率地說，已經涵蓋了很多內容，但我想再問兩個問題。因此，第四季度增加了 25 億美元的回購，相當於股票數量的 2.5%。所以如果那是——所以在過去的 4 年裡，你還有 10%。我想知道，在我們上個季度進行的討論的基礎上，這樣說是否公平，好吧，你每季度進行的每 25 億美元回購，每 2.5%，我們現在應該開始預期回購第四季度的 DPS 增長將在下一次公告中增加 2.5 個百分點。

It seems a conclusion that lies -- that will be an extension of what we discussed in 2Q. But I sort of wanted to sort of put it to you to see if you'd say we're thinking along the right lines here, connecting today's buyback to basically tomorrow's dividend growth.

這似乎是一個謊言的結論——這將是我們在第二季度討論的內容的延伸。但我有點想把它告訴你，看看你是否會說我們在這裡的思考是正確的，將今天的回購與明天的股息增長基本聯繫起來。

And the second question I wanted to ask you is whether you had any updated thoughts on the impact of the EU embargo on Russian oil. I mean, it's been incredibly difficult to navigate the issue, but you're arguably much closer to it than any of us. So I was wondering how you would expect this to impact, well, both the company and the market.

我想問你的第二個問題是，你是否對歐盟禁運對俄羅斯石油的影響有任何最新想法。我的意思是，解決這個問題非常困難，但可以說你比我們任何人都更接近它。所以我想知道你會如何期望這會對公司和市場產生影響。

Yes. Great. Thanks, Martijn. The EU embargo on oil, I guess, maybe a few things to state. Oil, just some facts to state, oil stocks are relatively low relative to the 5-year history. Surplus capacity held by OPEC+ is relatively low as well compared to history. So I think those are 2 facts.

是的。偉大的。謝謝，馬丁。歐盟對石油的禁運，我想，也許有幾件事要說明。石油，僅需說明一些事實，相對於 5 年的歷史，石油庫存相對較低。與歷史相比，歐佩克+持有的過剩產能也相對較低。所以我認為這是兩個事實。

How the EU sanctions will be implemented in December and February is something that we're still watching closely as well as the price gap. I think it's almost impossible to predict how these things will unfold.

歐盟制裁將如何在 12 月和 2 月實施是我們仍在密切關注的事情以及價格差距。我認為幾乎不可能預測這些事情將如何展開。

You've just got a lot of moving parts on Chinese demand. You've got a lot of moving parts on how the EU sanctions will impact. You've got a lot of moving parts on demand destruction. And so I find it very, very difficult to figure out where oil price and products prices are moving over the coming quarters given all that level of uncertainty.

你剛剛得到了很多滿足中國需求的活動部件。關於歐盟制裁將如何影響，你有很多動人的部分。你有很多活動部件按需銷毀。因此，鑑於所有這些不確定性，我發現很難確定未來幾個季度油價和產品價格的走勢。

What I do know is that stocks are at low levels and surplus capacity is at low levels. So I think we conclude that, elevated and volatile, Martijn. I hope that helps. I'm not trying to dodge, but I think it's as difficult a time period to understand how things will unfold as I've seen.

我所知道的是庫存處於低水平，產能過剩處於低水平。所以我認為我們得出的結論是，Martijn 高漲且不穩定。我希望這有幫助。我並不是想躲避，但我認為這是一個像我所看到的那樣難以理解事情將如何發展的時期。

As far as buybacks leading to dividends, your question on that, as we look back at 2Q, we'd obviously retired an awful lot of stock. We'd retired an awful lot of debt and the interest load associated with it, and the operations themselves were doing quite well.

至於導致股息的回購，你的問題是，當我們回顧第二季度時，我們顯然已經淘汰了大量股票。我們已經償還了大量債務和與之相關的利息負擔，而且運營本身也做得很好。

And all of those gave the Board the confidence to increase the dividend with the key focal point being our $40, 11 RMM and 3 Henry Hub balance point. We want to make sure that any dividend increase is resilient through the transition, and that's why we slavishly look to balance point as we think about these things. So I think it's driven as much by balance point as anything else.

所有這些都讓董事會有信心增加股息，重點是我們的 40 美元、11 RMM 和 3 Henry Hub 平衡點。我們希望確保任何股息增加在過渡期間都具有彈性，這就是為什麼我們在考慮這些事情時盲目地尋求平衡點。所以我認為它與其他任何東西一樣受到平衡點的驅動。

Looking forward then, how can you think about this? We will anchor on balance point, 40, 11 and 3. Of course, we will look at buybacks and what that's doing to the dividend load. We'll, of course, look at interest. And we'll, of course, look at operational performance.

往前看，你怎麼能想到這個？我們將錨定在平衡點 40、11 和 3 上。當然，我們將研究回購以及這對股息負荷的影響。當然，我們會關注利息。當然，我們會關注運營績效。

And hopefully, you hear the cheery note in my voice about we think that we've got a strong wave of performance coming now. But that's how we look at it moving forward. The only firm guidance I can give you is we have the capacity to increase the dividend by 4% per annum, assuming $60 oil. I hope that helps, Martijn.

希望您能聽到我聲音中的愉快音符，我們認為我們現在將迎來一波強勁的業績。但這就是我們看待它前進的方式。我能給你的唯一堅定的指導是我們有能力每年增加 4% 的股息，假設油價為 60 美元。我希望這對您有所幫助，Martijn。

Thanks, Martijn. And we'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent, Bank of America.

謝謝，馬丁。我們將從美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 那裡回答下一個問題。

Murray, just a quick one on Alaska. You've collected some more proceeds this quarter. How many have you now collected when you compare it to the headline price that you disclosed at the time of the disposal, just as a sort of a reminder?

穆雷，只是關於阿拉斯加的一個快速的。本季度您收集了更多收益。當你將它與你在處置時披露的標題價格進行比較時，你現在收集了多少，就像一種提醒？

And then lastly, on gas trading, I'm -- you're being very kind in a way by telling us it is 3 billion you should get there yourself in terms of the gas trading contribution in Q3.

最後，關於天然氣交易，我 - 你在某種程度上非常友好地告訴我們，就第三季度的天然氣交易貢獻而言，你應該自己達到 30 億美元。

Who do you fear? Why not make that more transparent? Is it the political environment? Or is it your gas traders at fear the competition across the street, thinking they might not work out that it's about 3 billion?

你怕誰？為什麼不讓它更透明？是政治環境嗎？還是您的天然氣交易商害怕街對面的競爭，認為他們可能無法計算出大約 30 億？

Chris, I'm not going to comment on the number. I think transparency on trading is a tricky thing. I think, generally, we have observed others that do this. The entire conversation with the analyst community comes focused on trading, and I'm not sure that's very productive when you've got a broad-based business that's trying to transition. So it's about investor focus and focusing on the broad conversation, I think, is what covers my mind.

克里斯，我不打算評論這個數字。我認為交易透明度是一件棘手的事情。我認為，一般來說，我們已經觀察到其他人這樣做了。與分析師社區的整個對話都集中在交易上，我不確定當你有一個基礎廣泛的業務正在嘗試轉型時，這是否會很有成效。所以這是關於投資者關注和關注廣泛的對話，我認為，這是我的想法。

And then on Alaska, I think 3-ish is about the number so far relative to the original announcement, Chris, give or take.

然後在阿拉斯加，我認為 3-ish 是到目前為止相對於原始公告的數字，克里斯，給予或接受。

Okay. We'll take the next question from Amy Wong at Credit Suisse.

好的。我們將接受瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong 的下一個問題。

Got a couple of questions, both related to your customers and products line. It's a bit more strategic, actually. So thinking about looking at your metrics this quarter on convenience site and cash flow, you've all seem to kind of go backwards. So could you just update us on how you feel about your progress on your strategy, on your customers and mobility theme?

有幾個問題，都與您的客戶和產品線有關。實際上，它更具戰略意義。因此，考慮查看本季度在便利網站和現金流量方面的指標，你們似乎都在倒退。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您對戰略、客戶和移動主題方面取得的進展的看法？

And then the second question there is, when you launched your new reporting, you said you'd come back to the market on metrics on how do you measure your EV charging business. You've arguably made some good progress there on some acquisitions. So when should we expect to see some standalone metrics and reporting related to that line of business?

然後是第二個問題，當你發布新報告時，你說你會回到市場上來衡量你如何衡量你的電動汽車充電業務的指標。可以說，您在某些收購方面取得了一些不錯的進展。那麼我們什麼時候應該期望看到與該業務線相關的一些獨立指標和報告呢？

Great. Thanks, Amy. Yes, Castrol is in a tough sector right now. They have all the headwinds that we've talked about before, base oil prices, additive prices, Chinese lockdowns, et cetera, when they're the largest in China.

偉大的。謝謝，艾米。是的，嘉實多目前處在一個艱難的行業。他們有我們之前討論過的所有不利因素，基礎油價格、添加劑價格、中國的封鎖等等，而他們是中國最大的。

They are making strategic progress. We have a new leader in to take that business forward, and she's coming up with her 90-day plan that she'll present to Bernard and I in December.

他們正在取得戰略進展。我們有一位新的領導來推動這項業務的發展，她正在製定她將在 12 月提交給伯納德和我的 90 天計劃。

And we have great hope for it. And I think the thing that gives me great hope with it is we can benchmark against the externals. And if we look against the competition that published last week, Castrol is actually doing relatively well in a competitive sense.

我們對此抱有很大的希望。而且我認為給我很大希望的是我們可以對外部進行基準測試。而如果我們對照上周公布的競爭情況來看，嘉實多實際上在競爭意義上做得比較好。

So we just need base oils to flat now. We need the additives program to be fixed globally, not just for us. And then hopefully, China will gradually unlock. And then we should see our great brand take effect there.

所以我們現在只需要基礎油來平整。我們需要在全球範圍內固定添加劑計劃，而不僅僅是我們自己。然後希望中國將逐漸解鎖。然後我們應該看到我們偉大的品牌在那裡產生影響。

So an awful lot of hope for the future for Castrol, and relative competitive performance is very strong. We benchmark that every quarter.

所以對嘉實多的未來充滿希望，相對的競爭表現非常強勁。我們每個季度都會對它進行基準測試。

As far as EVs, we'll start to provide more as we move forward. Progress in EVs is fantastic. We're up to 6% utilization across the U.S. We're already up to 3% utilization in Netherlands and Germany, only having embarked there over the past 12 to 18 months. China is at 13% utilization.

就電動汽車而言，隨著我們的前進，我們將開始提供更多。電動汽車的進步是驚人的。我們在美國的利用率高達 6%。我們在荷蘭和德國的利用率已經高達 3%，只是在過去 12 到 18 個月才開始。中國的利用率為 13%。

Richard, who runs the business on behalf of Emma, is installing 200 fast charge points a week. That's a heck of a number, isn't it, 200 globally a week. And we're seeing record after record in energy sales.

代表艾瑪經營公司的理查德每周安裝 200 個快速充電點。這是一個很大的數字，不是嗎，全球每週 200 個。我們看到能源銷售創下新紀錄。

So fantastic progress. It's a fabulous business, and we'll provide more information for you. I don't know if it will be in February or it will be a separate session next year. That's something that Craig and I still need to debate, but we'll definitely be showing you more about convenience electrification, one of our big, big growth engines moving forward. We're very excited about it. Thank you.

如此驚人的進步。這是一項了不起的業務，我們將為您提供更多信息。我不知道是在 2 月份，還是明年單獨開會。這是克雷格和我仍然需要辯論的事情，但我們肯定會向您展示更多關於便利電氣化的信息，這是我們向前發展的巨大增長引擎之一。我們對此感到非常興奮。謝謝你。

Thanks, Amy. We'll take the penultimate question from Jason Gabelman at Cowen.

謝謝，艾米。我們將接受來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman 的倒數第二個問題。

I just wanted to ask about the LNG growth that you mentioned within your portfolio. How does that change your kind of exposure to prices? And then just spot versus term on offtake, maybe you could discuss how that evolves over the next year with these new volumes coming online.

我只是想問一下您在投資組合中提到的液化天然氣增長。這如何改變您對價格的敞口？然後只是現貨與長期承購，也許你可以討論明年隨著這些新卷的上線而發生的變化。

And then my second question on the Toledo incident, can you discuss maybe expectation for how long the plant will be down, cost to repair and if there's any impact to the asset divestment as a result?

然後是我關於托萊多事件的第二個問題，你能否討論一下對工廠停機時間、維修成本的預期，以及是否會對資產剝離產生任何影響？

Great. Thanks, Jason. On Toledo, I can't really guide you on anything right now. The site is shut down, as we talked about. The investigations continue. And we need to complete the investigations, learn the lessons and then we'll decide how we move forward. But I can't really give you any guidance until we're through that process. My apologies.

偉大的。謝謝，傑森。在托萊多，我現在無法真正指導您做任何事情。正如我們所說，該網站已關閉。調查仍在繼續。我們需要完成調查，吸取教訓，然後我們將決定我們如何前進。但在我們完成這個過程之前，我無法真正給你任何指導。我很抱歉。

On LNG growth and how do we think about this and price exposure, if you think about our business, we have 14 million tonnes per annum of equity and merchant cargoes that we bought over time. Each and every quarter, the teams optimize the value of these things through either OTC or derivative positions and try to improve upon the earnings they see.

關於液化天然氣的增長以及我們如何看待這一點和價格風險，如果你考慮我們的業務，我們每年有 1400 萬噸的股票和商船貨物是我們隨著時間的推移購買的。每個季度，團隊都會通過場外交易或衍生品頭寸優化這些東西的價值，並努力提高他們看到的收益。

As new programs come in, so as new projects come in, that long list that I talked with you about, we're generally purchasing cargoes that were done in the 2015, '16, '17 time window, and you'll know the prices in those time windows. Some of the sales contracts will be hedged on that, some won't be.

隨著新項目的進入，隨著新項目的進入，我和你談過的那一長串清單，我們通常購買在 2015 年、16 年、17 年時間窗口內完成的貨物，你會知道那些時間窗內的價格。一些銷售合同將以此為基礎進行套期保值，而另一些則不會。

You want to make sure that you don't get ahead of yourself too much and do too much derivative hedging when there is doubt on what the producibility of the assets will be in the early phases. So it's a mix. And then as you get more certainty, you'll start to lock that stuff in as you get more certainty on production.

當對資產在早期階段的生產能力存有疑問時，您要確保自己不會過於超前，也不會進行過多的衍生品套期保值。所以這是一個混合。然後當你獲得更多確定性時，你將開始鎖定這些東西，因為你對生產有了更多的確定性。

So I think that's a little bit about how we think about it. And I think the part that's maybe a touch different than the rest of the competition is that we have more flexibility to optimize, I think, than some of the competition have. So we're always optimizing inside the quarter across the basins based on the clauses we have in our contracts.

所以我認為這與我們的想法有關。而且我認為與其他競爭對手可能有所不同的部分是，我認為我們比某些競爭對手有更大的優化靈活性。因此，我們始終根據合同中的條款在跨流域的季度內進行優化。

So I think that's what makes bp maybe a little bit differential. Maybe I'm misleading myself on that, Jason. So I hope that's probably more than I've ever talked about. I think I'll stop there before my gas traders get upset. Thanks, Jason.

所以我認為這就是使 bp 可能有點不同的原因。也許我在這方面誤導了自己，傑森。所以我希望這可能比我曾經談論過的更多。我想我會在我的天然氣交易商不高興之前就此打住。謝謝，傑森。

Okay. And the last question, from one Jason to another, Jason Kenney in Edinburgh, Santander.

好的。最後一個問題，從一個 Jason 到另一個 Jason Kenney 在愛丁堡，桑坦德。

When do you think the first significant CapEx into the Asia Renewable Energy Hub is possible? And I'm assuming first material EBITDA from that beyond 5 years from now, but maybe just some kind of time scale around your commitment across in Australia there.

您認為什麼時候可以對亞洲可再生能源中心進行首次重大資本支出？我假設從現在起超過 5 年的第一筆實質性 EBITDA，但也許只是圍繞你在澳大利亞的承諾的某種時間尺度。

Then secondly, on Libya gas, some news flow this week that bp with Eni to begin getting gas from a field in the Med that's potentially larger than Zohr apparently. This is according to the National Oil Company, NOC. Any insight on scale or time frame for Libya gas commitment? Great. Anything you've got there.

其次，關於利比亞天然氣，本周有一些消息稱，英國石油公司與埃尼公司開始從地中海的一個油田獲取天然氣，該油田顯然可能比 Zohr 更大。這是根據國家石油公司 NOC 的說法。對利比亞天然氣承諾的規模或時間框架有何見解？偉大的。你那裡有的任何東西。

Yes. On Libya gas, it's an exploration program. We've recently completed a transaction with Eni to equalize in the offshore in Libya. And in the years ahead, we'll start exploring. That's probably what I'd say on Libya.

是的。對於利比亞天然氣，這是一項勘探計劃。我們最近完成了與 Eni 的一項交易，以平衡利比亞的離岸資源。在未來幾年，我們將開始探索。這可能就是我要對利比亞說的。

On AREH, there are 2 ways to think about AREH. First of all, it's a domestic play. So can we bring green hydrogen or green power to the nearby mining and other industries? That's probably something that happens middle '25, '26, '27 would be my guess when that starts happening. And then that will form the base project that then allows you to build a big export hub hopefully by the end of the decade. That would be brilliant if we could achieve that.

在 AREH 上，有兩種思考 AREH 的方式。首先，這是一部國產劇。那麼我們能否為附近的採礦業和其他行業帶來綠色氫氣或綠色電力呢？這可能是在 25 年、26 年、27 年中期發生的事情，我猜這是什麼時候開始發生的。然後這將形成基礎項目，讓您有望在本世紀末建立一個大型出口中心。如果我們能做到這一點，那就太好了。

The complexity on the domestic play is relatively low. The complexity on the international play is quite high. We'll have to lock in customers. We'll have to lock in stakeholder rights. We'd have to lock in some pretty serious capacity for electrolyzers and, of course, secure that financing, et cetera, for what would be a very, very big investment.

國內玩法的複雜度比較低。國際比賽的複雜性相當高。我們必須鎖定客戶。我們必須鎖定利益相關者的權利。我們必須鎖定一些相當大的電解槽產能，當然，還要確保融資等，這將是一項非常非常大的投資。

So we're delighted that we've completed it. We'll get going on the domestic side now. And then, hopefully, over time, we'll work with some of our international customers to start looking at growing that to export as well. I hope that helps, Jason, and thank you for your question.

所以我們很高興我們已經完成了它。我們現在開始國內方面的工作。然後，希望隨著時間的推移，我們將與我們的一些國際客戶合作，開始考慮將其種植並出口。我希望這對你有所幫助，傑森，謝謝你的問題。

Okay. Thank you, Jason, and thanks to everybody for all the questions. That's the end of the Q&A., so maybe just let me hand over to Murray for a couple of closing questions. Thank you.

好的。謝謝 Jason，也感謝大家提出的所有問題。 Q&A 到此結束，所以也許讓我交給 Murray 來回答幾個結束性問題。謝謝你。

Thanks, Craig, and thanks to everyone for listening. I think it's been another decent quarter for delivery for bp, and that's really what we remain focused on. We're delivering on our operational and strategic plan and financial frame. We're delivering against that financial frame. And we're delivering for shareholders through growing our distributions.

謝謝，克雷格，感謝大家的聆聽。我認為這是 bp 交付的又一個不錯的季度，而這正是我們一直關注的重點。我們正在實施我們的運營和戰略計劃以及財務框架。我們正在根據該財務框架交付。我們正在通過增加我們的分配來為股東提供服務。

We look forward to updating you further on this in fourth quarter results, where we think we'll also provide an update on our strategy progress in February.

我們期待在第四季度的業績中進一步向您更新，我們認為我們還將在 2 月份提供有關我們戰略進展的最新信息。

So thanks again for listening and your questions today, and I look forward to chatting you in the future. Bye-bye.

再次感謝您今天的聆聽和提問，我期待著將來與您聊天。再見。