英國石油 (BP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Well, good morning, everyone, and welcome to BP's Second Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. I'm here today with Bernard Looney, Chief Executive Officer; and Murray Auchincloss, Chief Financial Officer.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 BP 2023 年第二季度業績發布會。今天我和首席執行官伯納德·盧尼 (Bernard Looney) 一起來到這裡。和首席財務官 Murray Auchincloss。

Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to the factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more detail. These documents are available on our website.

在今天開始之前，讓我提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出涉及我們的估計、計劃和期望的前瞻性陳述。由於我們在這張幻燈片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中指出的因素，實際結果和結果可能會存在重大差異。更多詳情請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

I'll now hand over to Bernard.

現在我將把任務交給伯納德。

Well, good morning. Thanks, Craig, and good morning to everyone. Thanks for joining us, either physically in the room here or online. Earlier this morning, we reported our second quarter 2023 results, and I hope that you see continued evidence of our strategy in action, a strategy that is focused on delivering long-term shareholder value.

嗯，早上好。謝謝克雷格，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們，無論是在現場還是在網上。今天早上早些時候，我們報告了 2023 年第二季度的業績，我希望您能看到我們正在實施的戰略的持續證據，該戰略專注於提供長期股東價值。

We've now been in action for over 3 years. We set our direction in 2020, we completed our restructuring in 2021, and since then, we have been focused on delivery and on execution.

我們現在已經行動了 3 年多了。我們在2020年確定了方向，在2021年完成了重組，從那時起，我們一直專注於交付和執行。

Let me highlight a few things, if that's okay, before I turn it over to Murray. First, we delivered resilient operational and financial performance in the second quarter with good cash delivery. During a period where a significant turnaround activity and weaker margins impacted our refining business, the underlying business continued to perform well. And looking forward, the outlook for the second half of the year, which I'm sure we'll talk about, remains strong. And I will talk a little bit more in a few moments about that.

如果可以的話，在我把它交給穆雷之前，讓我強調一些事情。首先，我們在第二季度實現了富有彈性的運營和財務業績，並提供了良好的現金交付。在重大扭虧為盈和利潤下降影響我們煉油業務的時期，基礎業務繼續表現良好。展望未來，我相信我們將討論的下半年前景仍然強勁。稍後我將詳細討論這一點。

Second, we are progressing our strategy at pace. We are investing in today's energy system and, not or, something that you will hear repeatedly from us, because it defines our strategy, and, not or strategy. And not or, we are investing with discipline across our 5 transition growth engines to help accelerate the energy transition. This continued progress underpins our confidence in delivering our 2025 targets.

其次，我們正在快速推進我們的戰略。我們正在投資當今的能源系統，而不是或，您會反復從我們那裡聽到一些東西，因為它定義了我們的戰略，而不是或戰略。我們正在對 5 個轉型增長引擎進行嚴格投資，以幫助加速能源轉型。這一持續進展增強了我們實現 2025 年目標的信心。

Third, we are growing distributions for our shareholders. Today, we have announced a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend per ordinary share and a further 1.5 billion share buyback. These decisions are consistent with our continued focus on disciplined delivery against our unchanged financial frame. And they reflect the confidence in our performance, the confidence in the outlook for cash flow and the progress that we have made in reducing our share count. And Murray will obviously return to this later.

第三，我們正在增加股東的分配。今天，我們宣布將每股普通股季度股息增加 10%，並進一步回購 15 億股股票。這些決定與我們在財務框架不變的情況下繼續專注於嚴格交付的做法是一致的。它們反映了對我們業績的信心、對現金流前景的信心以及我們在減少股份數量方面取得的進展的信心。穆雷顯然稍後會回到這個話題。

Let me say a few more words about performance, starting with the strong momentum in resilient hydrocarbons. For the first half of 2023, bp-operated upstream plant reliability was 95%. And compared to the first half of 2022, our upstream production grew by over 3%, while at the same time, unit production costs fell 9%. We had 2 project startups in the first half: Mad Dog Phase 2 in the Gulf of Mexico and KG D6-MJ in India.

讓我再多談談性能，首先是彈性碳氫化合物的強勁勢頭。 2023 年上半年，bp 運營的上游工廠可靠性為 95%。與2022年上半年相比，我們的上游產量增長了3%以上，同時單位生產成本下降了9%。上半年我們有2個項目啟動：墨西哥灣的Mad Dog Phase 2和印度的KG D6-MJ。

Together, they are expected to add around 90,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent net production by 2025. Two more start-ups are expected in the second half of this year: Tangguh expansion, where start-up is now actually in progress, and Seagull, and GTA Phase 1 is now expected to start up during the first quarter of 2024.

預計到 2025 年，它們的石油當量淨產量將增加約 90,000 桶/日。預計今年下半年還會有兩家初創企業：Tangguh 擴建項目（目前該項目實際上正在進行中）和 Seagull 項目，GTA 第一階段預計將於 2024 年第一季度啟動。

All-in-all, we remain confident in delivering around 200,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent of high-margin production from new projects by 2025. In bpx, first half production was around 9% higher year-on-year. And in the third quarter, we expect the start-up of our central -- second central processing facility in the Permian, further derisking our target of 30% to 40% production increase by 2025 relative to 2022.

總而言之，我們仍然有信心到 2025 年新項目每天提供約 20 萬桶油當量的高利潤產量。按 bpx 計算，上半年產量同比增長約 9%。我們預計在第三季度啟動位於二疊紀盆地的第二個中央加工設施，這將進一步降低我們到 2025 年產量較 2022 年增長 30% 至 40% 的目標的風險。

Looking to the future in oil and gas, we are strengthening our resource base. In the Gulf of Mexico, we progressed our Kaskida project to concept selection and are also evaluating options to progress the Tiber project. Both of them are 100% bp, both of them are in the Paleogene. We also acquired 36 leases in the recent Gulf of Mexico lease sale and drilled a successful appraisal well in the southwest part of the Mad Dog field.

展望石油和天然氣的未來，我們正在加強我們的資源基礎。在墨西哥灣，我們將 Kaskida 項目推進到概念選擇階段，同時也在評估推進 Tiber 項目的選項。兩者均為100% bp，均位於古近紀。我們還在最近的墨西哥灣租賃銷售中獲得了 36 個租賃權，並在 Mad Dog 油田西南部成功鑽探了一口評估井。

We continued building growth optionality in our global gas portfolio, including agreeing to acquire a further 27% interest in the Browse project. In LNG, we are growing supply. Our third-party offtakes have made good progress with 15 cargoes loaded from Coral and from Freeport, which is now back to full contractual offtake. And with additional volumes expected from the start-up of Tangguh, Train 3, we remain confident of delivering our 25 million tonnes per annum of supply in 2025.

我們繼續在全球天然氣投資組合中建立增長選擇，包括同意進一步收購 Browse 項目 27% 的權益。在液化天然氣方面，我們正在增加供應。我們的第三方承運取得了良好進展，從珊瑚礁和自由港裝載了 15 批貨物，現已恢復完全合同承運。由於東固 3 號列車的啟動預計將增加產量，我們仍然有信心在 2025 年交付每年 2500 萬噸的供應量。

And finally, we're upgrading our refining infrastructure, including successfully commissioning 2 improvement projects at Cherry Point in the U.S., which are expected to improve availability, reduce costs and reduce emissions. They say a picture is worth a thousand -- I'm being Irish for a moment, they say a picture is worth a thousand words. And this one certainly does that. And Murray and I saw this, and we said we've got to get this in the pack. This is our Tangguh expansion project in Indonesia. And you can see the third train there right in the center of the photograph. And it's a great example, we think, of us delivering on our strategy, what I like to call another shovel in the ground.

最後，我們正在升級我們的煉油基礎設施，包括在美國 Cherry Point 成功調試了 2 個改進項目，預計將提高可用性、降低成本並減少排放。他們說一幅畫抵一千字——我暫時是個愛爾蘭人，他們說一幅畫抵一千字。而這個確實做到了這一點。默里和我看到了這個，我們說我們必須把這個放進包裡。這是我們在印度尼西亞的東固擴建項目。您可以在照片的中央看到第三列火車。我們認為，這是我們實施戰略的一個很好的例子，我喜歡稱之為“又一把鏟子”。

This major project adds a third LNG train and around 3.8 million tonnes per annum of producing capacity to the existing 7.6 million tonnes per annum facility. Construction and commissioning of the project have been completed, and as I said earlier, start-up is now in progress in the facility.

該重大項目在現有 760 萬噸/年設施的基礎上增加了第三條液化天然氣生產線和約 380 萬噸/年的生產能力。目前，該項目已經完成建設和調試，正如我剛才所說，目前該設施正在啟動。

And it's an important delivery milestone, contributing towards our target of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of high-margin production from new major projects in '25 and our LNG target of 25 million tonnes of supply per annum in 2025.

這是一個重要的交付里程碑，有助於實現我們 25 年新重大項目每天高利潤生產 20 萬桶油當量的目標，以及 2025 年每年供應 2500 萬噸液化天然氣的目標。

And having recently extended the production sharing contract in Tangguh to 2055 and with work underway to further grow our gas production and make Tangguh one of the lowest carbon intensity LNG facilities, we're really excited for the future of this key asset.

最近，我們將東固的生產分成合同延長至 2055 年，並​​正在進行進一步增加天然氣產量並使東固成為碳強度最低的液化天然氣設施之一的工作，我們對這一關鍵資產的未來感到非常興奮。

Now turning to the progress -- significant progress, I think, we've made in building our 5 transition growth engines, what we call our TGEs during the first half. First, to the growth in our convenience business. In May, we completed the acquisition of TravelCenters of America, TA, adding a network of 288 sites strategically located on major highways across the United States.

現在轉向進展——我認為，我們在上半年建立 5 個轉型增長引擎（我們稱之為 TGE）方面取得了重大進展。首先，便利業務的增長。 5 月，我們完成了對 TravelCenters of America (TA) 的收購，增加了一個由 288 個站點組成的網絡，戰略性地分佈在美國主要高速公路上。

And [Marco] gave me a math of this that I have on my desk, and it really is phenomenal to look at, because you see the extensive highway network in America. And now we have dots and sites on virtually every 1 of them in 44 states. And TA is expected to almost double BP's global convenience gross margin and bring growth opportunities in 4 of our 5 transition growth engines. And in the first half, excluding TA, we delivered record convenience gross margin with around 7% year-on-year growth. That's on top of, I think, a 9% per annum over the previous 3 years.

[Marco] 給了我一個關於這個問題的數學計算，我把它放在我的桌子上，看起來確實很驚人，因為你看到了美國廣泛的高速公路網絡。現在，我們在 44 個州幾乎每一個都設有點和網站。預計 TA 將使 BP 的全球便利毛利率幾乎翻倍，並為我們 5 個轉型增長引擎中的 4 個帶來增長機會。上半年，不包括 TA，我們的便利毛利率創歷史新高，同比增長約 7%。我認為，這還不包括過去 3 年每年 9% 的增長率。

In EV charging, we are rapidly building scale and demonstrating emerging profitability. For the first half, energy sold and gross by over 2x. Murray and I say it's actually close to 3x year-on-year, supported by a 70%. So almost 3x increase in power, a 70% increase in the number of EV charge points, which obviously means that utilization is going up.

在電動汽車充電領域，我們正在迅速擴大規模並展現出新興的盈利能力。上半年，能源銷量和總量增長超過 2 倍。穆雷和我說，實際上同比增長接近 3 倍，有 70% 的人支持。因此，功率增加了近 3 倍，電動汽車充電點數量增加了 70%，這顯然意味著利用率正在上升。

And in the second quarter, our JV with Didi in China, which is our largest market, and our business in Germany, were both EBITDA positive. And we recently sanctioned $500 million of investment in the United States over the next 2 to 3 years to begin infrastructure build-out there, including at the sites that I just mentioned at TA.

第二季度，我們與滴滴在中國（我們最大的市場）的合資企業以及我們在德國的業務均實現了 EBITDA 正值。我們最近批准在未來 2 到 3 年內在美國投資 5 億美元，開始在那裡建設基礎設施，包括我剛才在 TA 上提到的地點。

In Bioenergy, you guessed it, we are growing. In Biofuels, we produced more than 10% growth year-on-year, and we continue to target final investment decisions on the first of our 5 biofuels projects by year-end. And in Biogas, we continue to work on safely integrating Archaea Energy into bp. We continue to grow our pipeline in hydrogen projects, underpinned by new projects in the United States and in Oman. The pipeline has increased by 60% since the end of 2022 to reach 2.8 million tonnes per annum, well underway to delivering our target of doubling our pipeline by the end of the year.

在生物能源領域，您猜對了，我們正在成長。在生物燃料方面，我們的同比增長超過 10%，我們繼續致力於在年底前對 5 個生物燃料項目中的第一個項目做出最終投資決定。在沼氣方面，我們繼續致力於將古生菌能源安全地整合到 bp 中。在美國和阿曼新項目的支持下，我們繼續擴大氫項目管道。自 2022 年底以來，管道輸送量已增加 60%，達到每年 280 萬噸，正在順利實現我們在年底前將管道輸送量增加一倍的目標。

And finally, we have strengthened our renewables and power pipeline, growing our renewables pipeline to 43.6 gigawatts net to bp, and that includes our recent offshore wind award in Germany. So let me say a little bit more about that one.

最後，我們加強了可再生能源和電力管道，將可再生能源管道容量增加到 43.6 吉瓦，其中包括我們最近在德國獲得的海上風電獎項。讓我多說一點。

We have been awarded the rights to develop 2 offshore wind projects in the recent German tender round, marking our entry into offshore wind in Continental Europe. Now these 2 projects have a total potential generating capacity of 4 gigawatts and they grow our offshore wind pipeline globally to 9.3 gigawatts net to bp.

我們在最近的德國招標中獲得了2個海上風電項目的開發權，標誌著我們進入歐洲大陸海上風電領域。現在，這兩個項目的總潛在發電量為 4 吉瓦，它們將我們的全球海上風電管道容量增加到 9.3 吉瓦。

Now importantly, in Germany and in the region, bp has a demand of around 5 to 10 gigawatts just from our own operations of renewable power in the 2030s. And that's as we scale up green hydrogen, as we scale up biofuels production, as we scale up EV charging and as we decarbonize the 2 refineries that we have on the ground there. So the first thing is we have a large green electricity demand ourselves, 5 to 10 gigawatts.

現在重要的是，在德國和該地區，到 2030 年代，bp 僅從我們自己的可再生能源運營中就需要約 5 至 10 吉瓦的電力。這就是我們擴大綠色氫、擴大生物燃料生產、擴大電動汽車充電規模以及對當地兩家煉油廠進行脫碳的過程。所以第一件事是我們自己有很大的綠色電力需求，5到10吉瓦。

At the same time, the region is, and we forecast it to be short of green electrons in that time period. And we expect this offshore wind capacity to, one, provide us secure access to the electrons we need; and two, to do it cheaper than we can buy them on the market. And as our focus is on securing access to the renewable power as opposed to full long-term asset ownership, we will pursue a very capital-light delivery approach, bringing in a partner through farmdown around the point of final -- in our financial investment decision. And we expect, of course, to leverage the project with financing.

與此同時，我們預測該地區在該時期將缺乏綠色電子。我們期望這種海上風電能力，第一，為我們提供安全獲取所需電子的途徑；第二，讓我們能夠安全地獲取所需的電子。第二，比我們在市場上購買它們便宜。由於我們的重點是確保獲得可再生能源，而不是完全的長期資產所有權，因此我們將採取一種非常輕資本的交付方式，在我們的金融投資的最終點附近通過農場引進合作夥伴決定。當然，我們希望通過融資來利用該項目。

We're confident, as you would expect -- very confident, I would say, in achieving 6% to 8% unlevered returns, and that's before integration benefits. And we will enhance these returns further through integrating across the energy value chain, leveraging Carol's trading and shipping business to optimize value.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們非常有信心實現 6% 至 8% 的無槓桿回報，而且這還是在整合收益之前。我們將通過整合整個能源價值鏈，利用卡羅爾的貿易和運輸業務來優化價值，進一步提高這些回報。

And we believe our bid benchmarked positively compared to other lease auctions, acknowledging, of course, the importance of the timing of payments and other factors like the delivery of the offshore grid connection. And as a reminder, and I'm sure probably everyone in this room already knows, but as a reminder, the structure of the bid payments limit our financial exposure with EUR 678 million upfront and then that's 10% of the bid amount that's paid by the middle of next year.

我們相信，與其他租賃拍賣相比，我們的出價具有積極的基準，當然，我們承認付款時間和其他因素（例如海上電網連接的交付）的重要性。提醒一下，我相信在座的每個人都已經知道了，但提醒一下，投標付款的結構限制了我們的財務風險，預付款為 6.78 億歐元，這是由投標人支付的投標金額的 10%。明年年中。

And the remaining 90% starts when production starts in the 2030s and beyond and is paid over a 20-year period when the projects become operational. And then in Germany, the grid connection is provided by the transmission systems operator with compensation to the developer for any grid delays.

剩下的 90% 將在 2030 年代及以後投產時開始，並在項目投入運營後的 20 年內支付。然後在德國，電網連接由輸電系統運營商提供，並針對任何電網延誤向開發商提供補償。

So we're delighted. We're really excited about this win. It's fully aligned with our integrated energy strategy. It's in a core market for bp, where we intend to continue to grow our business. So taken together, across resilient hydrocarbons and the TGEs, I hope you will agree, I hope you might agree that what you see from bp is evidence of our strategy in action, underpinning the confidence we have in the operational and in financial momentum we expect through the rest of the year and as we work towards achieving our 2025 targets.

所以我們很高興。我們對這場胜利感到非常興奮。它完全符合我們的綜合能源戰略。它位於 bp 的核心市場，我們打算繼續發展我們的業務。因此，綜合起來，在彈性碳氫化合物和 TGE 方面，我希望您會同意，我希望您會同意，您從 bp 看到的是我們正在採取行動的戰略的證據，支撐了我們對我們預期的運營和財務勢頭的信心今年剩餘時間以及我們努力實現 2025 年目標的過程中。

And with that, enough for me. Let me hand over to Murray to take you through the second quarter results. Murray?

就這樣，對我來說就足夠了。讓我請穆雷向您介紹第二季度的業績。穆雷？

Super thanks, Bernard, and good morning, everybody. Let me start with our second quarter results. We reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $2.6 million compared to $5 billion last quarter. Compared to the first quarter in gas and low carbon energy, the result reflects an exceptional gas marketing and trading result, albeit lower than the first quarter and lower gas realizations. In oil production operations, the result reflects lower realizations.

非常感謝伯納德，大家早上好。讓我從第二季度的業績開始。我們報告的基本重置成本利潤為 260 萬美元，而上季度為 50 億美元。與第一季度的天然氣和低碳能源相比，這一結果反映了出色的天然氣營銷和交易結果，儘管低於第一季度且天然氣實現量較低。在石油生產業務中，結果反映出實現率較低。

And in Customers & Products, the products result reflects significantly lower realized refining margins, primarily due to middle distillate margins -- weaker middle distillate margins and narrower North American crude heavy differentials, a significantly higher level of turnaround and maintenance activity, including a planned full site turnaround at Lingen, and a weak oil trading result.

在客戶和產品中，產品結果反映了已實現的煉油利潤率顯著降低，這主要是由於中間餾分油利潤率下降——中間餾分油利潤率下降和北美原油重差縮小，周轉和維護活動水平顯著提高，包括計劃的全面林根現場發生轉變，石油交易結果疲軟。

The customer's result reflects stronger retail margins and seasonally higher volumes and a stronger convenience performance, partially offset by foreign exchange.

客戶的業績反映了零售利潤率的提高、季節性銷量的增加以及便利性的提高，但部分被外匯所抵消。

Turning to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $6.3 billion in the second quarter. This includes a working capital release of $100 million. Capital expenditure was $4.3 billion, including inorganic expenditure net of adjustments of $1.1 million related to the acquisition of TravelCenters of America.

轉向現金流。第二季度運營現金流為 63 億美元。其中包括釋放 1 億美元的營運資金。資本支出為 43 億美元，其中包括與收購 TravelCenters of America 相關的 110 萬美元調整後的無機支出。

During the quarter, we repurchased 2.1 billion of shares and the 1.75 billion program announced with first quarter 2023 results was completed on July 28. In the second quarter, bp surplus cash flow was an outflow of $300 million and at the end of the second quarter, net debt was $23.7 billion.

本季度，我們回購了21億股股票，2023年第一季度業績公佈的17.5億計劃已於7月28日完成。第二季度，bp盈餘現金流為3億美元，二季度末，淨債務為237億美元。

Moving to our disciplined financial frame. Our 5 priorities and guidance remain unchanged. We have today announced a dividend increase of 10% for the second quarter to 7.27 cents dividend per ordinary share. The dividend remains our first priority and is underpinned by a cash balance point of $40 Brent, $11 RMM, and $3 Henry Hub.

轉向我們嚴格的財務框架。我們的 5 個優先事項和指導方針保持不變。我們今天宣布第二季度股息增加 10% 至每股普通股 7.27 美分。股息仍然是我們的首要任務，並以 40 美元布倫特原油、11 美元 RMM 和 3 美元亨利中心的現金平衡點為支撐。

We remain committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating and we are targeting further progress within the A-grade credit rating. However, we have no intention to target a AA rating. As a result for our strong surplus cash flow generation over the last 4 quarters, we have executed over $10 billion of buybacks and have reduced our issued share count capital by over 9%. BP remains committed to using 60% of 2023 surplus cash flow for share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. Consistent with this, we have announced a further $1.5 billion share buyback to be completed prior to reporting third quarter results.

我們仍然致力於維持強勁的投資級信用評級，並致力於在 A 級信用評級方面取得進一步進展。不過，我們無意以 AA 評級為目標。由於我們在過去 4 個季度產生了強勁的盈餘現金流，我們已執行了超過 100 億美元的回購，並將已發行股本減少了 9% 以上。 BP 仍致力於將 2023 年盈餘現金流的 60% 用於股票回購，前提是保持強勁的投資級信用評級。與此相一致的是，我們宣布將在報告第三季度業績之前完成進一步 15 億美元的股票回購。

Today's dividend increase and our ongoing buyback program reflects the confidence we have in our performance and the outlook for cash flow and also reflects the progress we have made in reducing our share count.

今天的股息增加和我們正在進行的回購計劃反映了我們對業績和現金流前景的信心，也反映了我們在減少股票數量方面所取得的進展。

Looking forward, based on BP's current forecast at around $60 per barrel Brent and subject to the board's discretion in each quarter, bp continues to expect to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4 billion per annum at the lower end of the $14 billion to $18 billion capital expenditure range and have capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4%.

展望未來，根據 BP 目前對布倫特原油每桶 60 美元左右的預測，並根據董事會每個季度的決定，BP 繼續預計每年能夠實現約 40 億美元的股票回購，回購金額為 140 億美元/桶的下限。資本支出範圍為 180 億美元，每股普通股股息每年增長 4% 左右。

In setting the dividend per ordinary share and buyback each quarter, the Board continues to take into account factors including the cumulative level and outlook for surplus cash flow, the cash balance point and the maintenance of a strong investment-grade credit rating.

在設定每季度普通股股息和回購時，董事會繼續考慮盈餘現金流的累計水平和前景、現金平衡點以及維持強勁的投資級信用評級等因素。

Finally, we're enhancing disclosure for our transition growth engines. Starting this quarter, we will report CapEx and EBITDA on a biannual basis for each of the 5 engines. We expect to grow EBITDA from these businesses from around $700 million in the first half of 2023 to $3 billion to $4 billion in 2025 driven by Bioenergy, Convenience and EV charging.

最後，我們正在加強對轉型增長引擎的披露。從本季度開始，我們將每半年報告 5 款發動機的資本支出和 EBITDA。在生物能源、便利設施和電動汽車充電的推動下，我們預計這些業務的 EBITDA 從 2023 年上半年的約 7 億美元增長到 2025 年的 30 億至 40 億美元。

In Bioenergy, we expect to deliver around $2 billion of EBITDA in 2025 compared to the first half of 2023. In biofuels, we expect to double production to 2025 to around 50,000 barrels per day, including growth in co-processing at our existing refineries. And in Biogas, we expect to double production to 2025 to around 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, underpinned by the delivery of the Archaea Energy pipeline and growth in third-party offtakes.

在生物能源方面，與 2023 年上半年相比，我們預計 2025 年將實現約 20 億美元的 EBITDA。在生物燃料方面，我們預計到 2025 年產量將翻一番，達到每天 50,000 桶左右，其中包括現有煉油廠協同加工的增長。在沼氣方面，我們預計到 2025 年，在 Archaea Energy 管道的交付和第三方承購量增長的支撐下，產量將翻一番，達到每天約 40,000 桶油當量。

In Convenience, we are targeting $1.5 billion of EBITDA in 2025. We expect TA to contribute around $800 million of EBITDA by 2025, the majority from convenience. We also expect to further expand our network of strategic convenience sites, reaching around 3,000 by 2025 from around 2,750 today.

在便利業務方面，我們的目標是到 2025 年實現 15 億美元的 EBITDA。我們預計 TA 到 2025 年將貢獻約 8 億美元的 EBITDA，其中大部分來自便利業務。我們還期望進一步擴大我們的戰略便利站點網絡，到 2025 年，從目前的約 2,750 個達到約 3,000 個。

And in EV charging, we expect to be EBITDA positive by 2025 as we accelerate the rollout of rapid and ultrafast EV charge points and drive a material increase in energy sold. This disclosure is an important part of our commitment to reinventing bp, providing greater transparency around the progress we are making as we invest and grow these businesses.

在電動汽車充電方面，我們預計到 2025 年，我們將實現 EBITDA 為正值，因為我們加快了快速和超快電動汽車充電點的推出，並推動了能源銷售的大幅增長。這一披露是我們重塑 bp 承諾的重要組成部分，為我們在投資和發展這些業務時所取得的進展提供更大的透明度。

With that, let me hand back to Bernard.

說到這裡，讓我把話題交還給伯納德。

Your section was quite long today, Murray, longer than usual.

穆雷，你今天的部分很長，比平時要長。

It's hard to keep up with you.

很難跟上你的步伐。

Thanks, Murray. So let me wrap up, and then we'll go to questions. So we are delivering resilient, operational, and financial performance and we see a strong momentum through the second half of the year. We are delivering our strategy at pace and with confidence.

謝謝，穆雷。讓我總結一下，然後我們將開始提問。因此，我們正在提供有彈性的運營和財務業績，並且我們看到下半年的強勁勢頭。我們正在快速、充滿信心地實施我們的戰略。

And importantly, we're delivering against our disciplined financial framework, including offering compelling distributions for shareholders. This focus on delivery, and it is absolute focus on delivery, is serving us well and underpins our investor proposition to deliver long-term shareholder value.

重要的是，我們正在按照嚴格的財務框架進行交付，包括為股東提供引人注目的分配。這種對交付的關注，而且是對交付的絕對關注，為我們提供了良好的服務，並支撐了我們提供長期股東價值的投資者主張。

And finally, the bp team and myself and I are looking forward to hosting a number of you in Denver in early October, where we'd like to share more with you about our strategy in action, particularly focused on the oil and gas business and on our biogas business.

最後，BP 團隊和我本人以及我期待著 10 月初在丹佛接待各位，我們希望與大家分享更多關於我們的行動戰略，特別是針對石油和天然氣業務以及關於我們的沼氣業務。

And with that, we will turn it over to you and go to questions. So that's where we start.

然後，我們將把它交給你並回答問題。這就是我們開始的地方。

Maybe we'll start with Biraj over here, if that's okay.

如果可以的話，也許我們可以從這裡的比拉傑開始。

It's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Two questions, please. The first one, just on the dividend. I think, the 10% bump is probably a quite a nice surprise for investors. I guess when I spoke to Craig this morning, you referenced in relation to the 9% share count reduction in the last year. And I guess you have 2 sources of growth for the dividend per share. One is, how many shares you're buying back and the other is the underlying growth in the business. So as, Murray, you mentioned, the balance point. So should we expect you to review your dividend going forward is twice a year in those 2 things separately? Or is it an annual review going forward with those 2 items put together?

我是 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。請教兩個問題。第一個，只是股息。我認為，10%的上漲對於投資者來說可能是一個相當不錯的驚喜。我想當我今天早上與克雷格交談時，您提到了去年股份數量減少 9% 的情況。我猜每股股息增長有兩個來源。一是您要回購多少股票，二是業務的潛在增長。穆雷，您提到了平衡點。那麼，我們是否應該期望您每年兩次分別審查這兩件事的股息？還是將這兩個項目放在一起進行年度審查？

And then second question is on the credit rating, which you've reiterated your intentions to move up one notch today. I was wondering if this has any bearing on the working capital release you expect, because obviously one of the advantage of the stronger credit rating is less collateral as you're hedging gas, oil and so on. But that -- what you're referring to for the second half this year and early 2024, if you -- is the current guidance -- is the credit rating upgrade embedded in the current guidance? Or would you expect a material change if you were to get a credit rating on top of what you've already said?

第二個問題是關於信用評級，您今天重申了將信用評級提升一級的意圖。我想知道這是否對您預期的營運資金釋放有任何影響，因為顯然，較高信用評級的優勢之一是在對沖天然氣、石油等產品時需要更少的抵押品。但是，您所指的今年下半年和 2024 年初的情況，如果您是當前的指導意見，那麼信用評級升級是否包含在當前的指導意見中？或者，如果您在已經說過的基礎上獲得信用評級，您是否會期望發生重大變化？

Very good, Biraj. Just to clarify, on the credit rating, we didn't say we were going up a notch today. We're saying we're not targeting AA. We want to make continued progress in the A ratings. So there's no upgrade to our expectations around that. Other than to clarify that we are not seeking a AA rating. Murray, maybe I'll make some comments at the end, but dividend twice yearly review and the credit rating.

非常好，比拉吉。只是澄清一下，關於信用評級，我們今天並沒有說我們會上升一個檔次。我們是說我們的目標不是 AA。我們希望在 A 級評級方面不斷取得進步。因此，我們對此的期望沒有升級。除了澄清我們不尋求 AA 評級之外。穆雷，也許我會在最後發表一些評論，但每年兩次的股息審查和信用評級。

Yes. I think -- Biraj, I think the way to think about it is look back in history. Obviously, the Board reviews the dividend each and every quarter and makes a dividend decision each and every quarter. So I can't guide on forward thinking, but all I can do is reflect on the last moves we've made.

是的。我認為——比拉吉，我認為思考這個問題的方法是回顧歷史。顯然，董事會每個季度都會審查股息，並每個季度都會做出股息決定。所以我無法指導前瞻性思維，但我所能做的就是反思我們最後採取的行動。

So if you rewind back to the second quarter of 2022, we increased the dividend 10%. That was primarily related to share count reduction, but also the ongoing strength of the underlying delivery of the business.

因此，如果你回到 2022 年第二季度，我們將股息增加了 10%。這主要與股份數量減少有關，但也與業務基礎交付的持續實力有關。

Fast forward to February of 2023, we increased capital guidance and transition growth engines and capital guidance inside the upstream as well and with that came additional earnings. That 10% dividend increase was based on our forecast of future cash flows and the strength we saw in the underlying business, all within a balance point of $40, $11, and $3.

快進到 2023 年 2 月，我們增加了資本指導和轉型增長引擎以及上游內部的資本指導，隨之而來的是額外的收益。 10% 的股息增長是基於我們對未來現金流的預測以及我們在基礎業務中看到的實力，所有這些都在 40 美元、11 美元和 3 美元的平衡點內。

Fast forward to today, we've had a 9% share count reduction over the past 12 months. That easily enables a 10% dividend increase without changing the absolute level of the dividend. But of course, as Bernard has talked about, there's incredible strength in the underlying business itself with Mad Dog doing very well, new projects coming online, bpx growing, et cetera. So we have both great performance and we've got the share count reduction that we're reflecting in this 2Q decision.

快進到今天，過去 12 個月我們的股票數量減少了 9%。這樣可以輕鬆實現 10% 的股息增長，而無需改變股息的絕對水平。但當然，正如伯納德所說，基礎業務本身俱有令人難以置信的實力，Mad Dog 做得非常好，新項目上線，bpx 增長等等。因此，我們既有出色的業績，也有股份數量的減少，這反映在第二季度的決定中。

Looking forward, the Board reviews the dividend each and every quarter and makes decisions. It will take into account where we are in the balance point, where we see the future outlook over the next few years and, of course, share count reduction. But it's a decision every quarter. I can't guide on anything different than that.

展望未來，董事會每季度都會審查股息並做出決定。它將考慮到我們處於平衡點的位置，我們對未來幾年的未來前景的看法，當然還有股票數量的減少。但這是每個季度都會做出的決定。我無法指導任何與此不同的事情。

As far as the credit rating, that's our second priority, is managing the balance sheet. Obviously, we're on a minus-positive outlook right now with S&P. We continue to think about an upgrade over time. But that's really a decision for S&P to make, not for us to make. We believe our metrics are in very good shape. We believe they're above their hurdles of cash cover ratio to receive that upgrade. And we'll keep working with S&P to try to explain our business and ensure we get that upgrade as we disclosed today.

就信用評級而言，我們的第二要務是管理資產負債表。顯然，我們目前對標準普爾的展望是負面的。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續考慮升級。但這實際上是標準普爾做出的決定，而不是我們做出的決定。我們相信我們的指標狀況非常良好。我們相信他們已經超越了現金覆蓋率的障礙來獲得升級。我們將繼續與標準普爾合作，努力解釋我們的業務，並確保我們獲得今天披露的升級。

We would like further progress in the A range, but we are not chasing a AA rating that is inefficient from a balance sheet perspective in our mind and inefficient for shareholders. So hopefully, that helps answer that question, Biraj.

我們希望 A 級取得進一步進展，但我們並不追求 AA 評級，因為從資產負債表的角度來看，我們認為這種評級效率低下，對股東來說效率也低下。希望這有助於回答這個問題，Biraj。

And the working capital?

還有營運資金？

The working capital is -- so if you think about cash outflow, an inflow for the year, in the first half of the year, obviously we've had a working capital build that's primarily related to the Deepwater Horizon. As we look out at surplus cash flow for the rest of the year, we've got an awful lot of confidence in the second half of the year. You just need to go through a couple of slides that Bernard talked about, 3% underlying growth in the oil and gas business, bpx up, Mad Dog online and ramping up fast. Seagull will come on soon, Tangguh will come on soon and so on. So there's quite a bit of momentum inside the underlying business, which generates high cash flows.

營運資金是——所以如果你考慮今年上半年的現金流出和流入，顯然我們的營運資金建設主要與深水地平線有關。當我們看到今年剩餘時間的剩餘現金流時，我們對下半年充滿信心。你只需要看一下 Bernard 談到的幾張幻燈片，石油和天然氣業務的 3% 潛在增長、bpx 上升、Mad Dog 在線并快速增長。海鷗很快就會上場，唐古很快就會上場等等。因此，基礎業務內部有相當大的動力，產生高現金流。

At the same time, we have a release from the LNG that we hedged out last year. This is all the merchant LNG that our trading business manages. And we've been forecasting a release of $5 billion of cash flow starting in 3Q through the next 4 quarters. So we have a deficit in working capital in the first half of this year. We'll have a big release in working capital in the second half of the year and extending into next year as well and very strong underlying performance. And that gives us the confidence to set the buyback level. Bernard, anything you'd add?

與此同時，我們釋放了去年我們對沖的液化天然氣。這就是我們貿易業務管理的所有商業液化天然氣。我們預計從第三季度開始到接下來的四個季度將釋放 50 億美元的現金流。所以今年上半年我們的營運資金是赤字的。我們將在下半年大幅釋放營運資金，並將持續到明年，並帶來非常強勁的基本業績。這讓我們有信心設定回購水平。伯納德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think, going through all the list of things that are exciting in the second half of the year from a growth perspective, we, of course, had $0.9 billion of divestments in the first half of the year. We're still guiding to $2 billion to $3 billion full year. And of course, we had the Gulf of Mexico payment in the second quarter which will not be present in the second half of the year. So no guidance there at all other than the outlook for cash flows and performance in the second half of the year for those of you who are trying to do surplus cash calculations and all of the stuff that Murray does and all of you guys do. So hopefully, that's helpful.

我認為，從增長的角度來看，今年下半年所有令人興奮的事情清單，我們當然在今年上半年進行了 9 億美元的撤資。我們仍將全年目標定為 20 億至 30 億美元。當然，我們在第二季度收到了墨西哥灣付款，但下半年不會出現。因此，對於那些試圖進行剩餘現金計算以及穆雷和你們所有人所做的所有事情的人來說，除了下半年的現金流和業績前景之外，根本沒有任何指導。希望這會有所幫助。

So where are we going next? Lydia? And then Irene, I think. And then maybe we'll go to a question online maybe, and then we'll go to this side of the room. So Lydia?

那麼我們接下來要去哪裡？莉迪亞？然後是艾琳，我想。然後我們可能會在網上回答一個問題，然後我們會去房間的這一邊。那麼莉迪亞？

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. I have 2 questions, if I could. The first one on the cost side that you came to. And obviously, if I look at the data, bp is the only one that's a company with the large cap, that's actually managed to reduce cost upstream over the last 12 months. And so can you just talk through what's driving that and particularly in the downstream if you're actually starting to see that digitalization benefit move over.

我是巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞·雷恩福斯。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。您遇到的第一個成本方面的問題。顯然，如果我看一下數據，bp 是唯一一家擁有大盤的公司，在過去 12 個月裡實際上成功地降低了上游成本。因此，如果您確實開始看到數字化的好處正在轉移，您能否談談推動這一趨勢的因素，特別是在下游領域。

The second question, and Murray, I think, I need some help, and you can interpret that however you want. But in terms of the buyback, you did $1.75 billion last quarter, you're saying $1.5 billion this quarter. But you've always said, we'll look forward, not to look back. So that $1.5 billion, can you just help me, how did you get to that number? Because again, is it that whilst you're expecting a stronger second half, is it less strong than you were thinking about 3 months ago?

第二個問題，穆雷，我想，我需要一些幫助，你可以隨心所欲地解釋。但就回購而言，上個季度回購了 17.5 億美元，本季度回購了 15 億美元。但你總是說，我們會向前看，而不是回頭看。那麼這 15 億美元，你能幫我一下嗎？你是怎麼得到這個數字的？因為，雖然您期待下半年會更強勁，但它是否沒有您 3 個月前想像的那麼強勁？

Very good, very good. Do you want to go to the second one first, Murray?

非常好，非常好。你想先去第二個嗎，穆雷？

Yes, sure. So when we assess the level of buyback, our long-term guidance is at least 60% will be -- surplus will be distributed to shareholders through a buyback for 2023. In particular, we've guided that 60%. So in the quarter, when the Board is assessing the level of buyback, we think about what we've done in the past, $1.75 billion, as you said, in the second -- in the first quarter, $1.5 billion announced this quarter. So we've done $3.25 billion so far this year.

是的，當然。因此，當我們評估回購水平時，我們的長期指導是至少 60%——盈餘將通過 2023 年的回購分配給股東。特別是，我們指導了 60%。因此，在本季度，當董事會評估回購水平時，我們會考慮我們過去所做的事情，正如您所說，在第二季度回購了 17.5 億美元，在第一季度，本季度宣布了 15 億美元。今年到目前為止我們已經完成了 32.5 億美元。

We then look at the full year 2023 based on what we see for underlying growth in the business, the release of working capital, et cetera, et cetera. And we're thinking about a 60% buyback for shareholders for the year. And I think if you do the math, you can figure out at the pricing that we saw in the first half of the year, if you have that pricing repeat in the second half of the year, you can just calculate what the 60% surplus is, and that will be relatively close to the buybacks we've done in the first half of the year.

然後，我們根據業務的潛在增長、營運資金的釋放等情況來展望 2023 年全年。我們正在考慮今年為股東回購 60% 的股份。我認為如果你算一下，你可以算出我們在上半年看到的定價，如果你在下半年重複這個定價，你可以計算出 60% 的盈餘是多少是的，這將與我們今年上半年所做的回購相對接近。

The last comment I'd make is anchor yourself, please, to our guidance, which is $4 billion of buybacks at $60 and use our rules of thumb to calculate what that buyback can be in the future. If you recalculate the first half of the year, you'll get, darn, your bang on, what we've announced for buybacks in the first half of the year based on $78 or $79 Brent for the first half of the year. So we've tried to -- we're very focused on maintaining our dividend and maintaining the balance sheet. And therefore, the buyback does move up and down with price but we've given you guardrails to estimate what it was very, very carefully. So I hope that helps, Lydia.

我要說的最後一句話是，請大家遵守我們的指導方針，即以 60 美元的價格回購 40 億美元，並使用我們的經驗法則來計算未來的回購金額。如果你重新計算今年上半年，你會發現我們宣布的上半年回購是基於今年上半年 78 美元或 79 美元的布倫特原油價格。因此，我們非常努力地致力於維持股息和資產負債表。因此，回購確實會隨著價格的變化而上下波動，但我們已經為您提供了護欄，讓您非常非常仔細地估計回購金額。所以我希望這會有所幫助，莉迪亞。

Great. And on cost, Lydia, I think, we should be transparent. I think, there is an element of portfolio in those numbers, but that's part of the cost game, so to speak. So we are very pleased that we're driving production up and driving unit production costs down. We're actually beginning to see deflation now, particularly in places like bpx, where we're seeing some costs down 20%.

偉大的。莉迪亞，在成本方面，我認為我們應該保持透明。我認為，這些數字中有投資組合的因素，但可以說，這是成本遊戲的一部分。因此，我們非常高興能夠提高產量並降低單位生產成本。我們現在實際上開始看到通貨緊縮，特別是在 bpx 等地方，我們看到一些成本下降了 20%。

Across the world, we're seeing things like steel costs coming down, some of the raw material costs coming down. Labor is an area where we do see inflation right across the world and that is unchanged. And we do our best to offset that with some of the productivity improvements that you alluded to. And we are seeing some sectors being particularly tight, and you'll have seen Bay du Nord being given an extra 3 years. And that's just a slave to returns, a slave to capital discipline. That market is quite hot, I guess, at the moment. And we see a lot of price increases there, and we're not going to develop that project until we can meet the return thresholds that we've set out. So we'll come back to that when the market is a little calmer.

在世界各地，我們看到鋼鐵成本下降，一些原材料成本下降。勞動力是我們在全球範圍內確實看到通貨膨脹的一個領域，而且這一點沒有改變。我們盡最大努力通過您提到的一些生產力改進來抵消這一影響。我們看到一些行業特別緊張，您會看到 Bay du Nord 獲得了額外的 3 年時間。這只是回報的奴隸，資本紀律的奴隸。我想，目前這個市場相當火爆。我們看到那裡的價格大幅上漲，在達到我們設定的回報閾值之前，我們不會開發該項目。因此，當市場稍微平靜一點時，我們會回到這個話題。

And we continue to see tremendous benefits from digitization, probably not yet in the downstream. It's still early days. I think a lot of that is ahead of us as we've seen in the upstream. It is a journey. But I was with Murray's control team during the week, Jane Hutchison. She was telling me about a new closed process where we've taken out 70% or 80% of the steps in a closed process, which is extraordinary numbers achieved through automation, through digitization.

我們繼續看到數字化帶來的巨大好處，但可能尚未體現在下游。現在還為時尚早。我認為，正如我們在上游看到的那樣，很多事情都在我們面前。這是一次旅程。但本週我和穆雷的控制團隊簡·哈奇森在一起。她告訴我一個新的封閉流程，我們取消了封閉流程中 70% 或 80% 的步驟，這是通過自動化、數字化實現的非凡數字。

Gordon is beginning now, and we're moving roles to India where we believe we can get incredible quality engineering done and do it at a lower cost. So we are beginning that journey. And I think that's a journey that's going to ramp up materially. We'll also look at that in our offshore wind space, not just in our upstream space. So we remain excited about the journey ahead of us in productivity, not just digital but digital, for sure. And Leone is here, and you can talk to her about that, but also things like the India conversation.

戈登現在開始工作，我們正在將角色轉移到印度，我們相信在那裡我們可以以更低的成本完成令人難以置信的高質量工程。所以我們正在開始這個旅程。我認為這是一個將會實質性推進的旅程。我們還將在我們的海上風電空間中關注這一點，而不僅僅是在我們的上游空間中。因此，我們對未來的生產力之旅仍然感到興奮，不僅是數字化，而且是數字化，這是肯定的。萊昂內在這裡，你可以和她談論這個，也可以和她談論印度對話之類的事情。

And we will continue to push our teams quite hard to make sure that we offset inflation with ongoing synergies. The central procurement organization that you run Murray, I think, is bringing some real benefits as well. So we are going to stay the course on remaining cost disciplined. We will make sure that safety remains the #1 priority. There is no need to compromise on that and we won't. But anything you'd like to add?

我們將繼續努力推動我們的團隊，以確保我們通過持續的協同效應抵消通貨膨脹。我認為，您管理默里的中央採購組織也帶來了一些實際的好處。因此，我們將繼續遵守成本紀律。我們將確保安全仍然是第一要務。沒有必要在這一點上妥協，我們也不會。但您還有什麼想補充的嗎？

Yes. I think, I'd add just a little. AI is all the talk these days in our Hungary business center over the past 3 years. We've digitized 2,000 jobs, and that's pretty extensive work inside, restructuring your data, realigning your process and then allowing automation. So it's -- we're able to absorb 2,000 new jobs coming in from the rest of the business or from expansion and then reduced jobs. So labor stays relatively constant, but you're able to eliminate 2,000 jobs just through that simple digitization we've done over the past 3 years. And our passion remains for this and we see it as a huge opportunity moving forward.

是的。我想，我就補充一點。過去三年來，人工智能一直是我們匈牙利商業中心的熱門話題。我們已經將 2,000 個工作崗位數字化，這是一項相當廣泛的內部工作，需要重組數據、重新調整流程，然後實現自動化。所以，我們能夠吸納 2,000 個來自其他業務或擴張後減少的新工作崗位。因此，勞動力保持相對穩定，但僅通過我們過去 3 年所做的簡單數字化就可以消除 2,000 個工作崗位。我們對此仍然充滿熱情，我們認為這是一個巨大的前進機會。

We are not short of opportunity in this space. We're going to keep going. Irene, and then we'll go to Paul on the phone.

我們在這個領域並不缺乏機會。我們將繼續前進。艾琳，然後我們給保羅打電話。

Irene Himona, Societe Generale. You recently got involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. And I wonder if you can talk a little bit about the objectives, the vision, what do you wish to achieve there.

艾琳·希莫納，法國興業銀行。您最近涉足東地中海。我想知道您是否可以談談目標、願景以及您希望實現什麼目標。

The second question, on refining. Leaving aside the margin environment, which was poor for everyone, obviously, a very heavy maintenance quarter which impacts not only throughput but also your costs. So I wonder if you can help us understand the cost in terms of Argos forgone of your maintenance this quarter, which was unusually heavy.

第二個問題，關於煉化。撇開對每個人來說都很糟糕的利潤環境不談，顯然，維護工作非常繁重，這不僅會影響吞吐量，還會影響您的成本。所以我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解本季度 Argos 放棄維護的成本，這是異常沉重的。

Very good. On the Eastern Mediterranean, I think it's -- at a very, very macro level, it's about the development of natural gas that's close to markets, including close to Europe. So that's -- at the very biggest level, that's what we're trying to do there. We've been in Abu Dhabi for over 60 years. They wish to expand our business internationally given the successful partnership that we've had with them over that period of time. I think, we were a natural partner for them to try to do this with in this part of the world. On top of that, of course, we have a large position in Egypt.

非常好。在東地中海，我認為在非常非常宏觀的層面上，這是關於靠近市場（包括靠近歐洲）的天然氣的開發。所以，從最大的層面來說，這就是我們正在努力做的事情。我們在阿布扎比已有 60 多年的歷史。鑑於我們在那段時間與他們建立了成功的合作夥伴關係，他們希望將我們的業務擴展到國際上。我認為，我們是他們在世界這個地區嘗試這樣做的天然合作夥伴。當然，最重要的是，我們在埃及擁有很大的地位。

So if you look in the region, at what we've got in Egypt, what we will have in the East Med, coupled with Abu Dhabi's ambitions, we're very excited about the development going forward of Leviathan. We're excited about further developments, potential exploration over the years ahead. So this gives us a real anchor in the Eastern Mediterranean. There's a lot of synergies across the countries that are involved there. And I think it's a natural extension of our partnership and it's one that, I think, we hope that we can grow over time. There's a huge demand for gas both in the region and in Europe.

因此，如果你看看該地區，看看我們在埃及所擁有的、我們在東地中海所擁有的，再加上阿布扎比的雄心，我們對利維坦的未來發展感到非常興奮。我們對未來幾年的進一步發展和潛在探索感到興奮。因此，這為我們在東地中海提供了真正的錨點。參與其中的國家之間存在很多協同效應。我認為這是我們合作夥伴關係的自然延伸，我認為我們希望我們能夠隨著時間的推移不斷成長。該地區和歐洲對天然氣的需求巨大。

And I think we'll look back on this as being a very, very key move for us. And we'll give further update on the progress around that transaction later in the year.

我認為我們會回顧這對我們來說是非常非常關鍵的一步。我們將在今年晚些時候提供有關該交易進展的進一步更新。

And on refining, Murray may wish to add specifically on cost. If you look at -- I looked at the difference between the first quarter and the second quarter on cost. You can explain the difference between 1Q and 2Q, roughly half of it is margin degradation both in terms of diesel cracks and in WTI/WCS spread.

在精煉方面，穆雷可能希望特別增加成本。如果你看一下——我看了一下第一季度和第二季度在成本方面的差異。您可以解釋第一季度和第二季度之間的差異，其中大約一半是柴油裂解和 WTI/WCS 價差方面的利潤率下降。

And then of the remaining half, the majority of it is around the planned maintenance, and a little bit of it is associated with oil trading. And of course, the explanation of the maintenance includes not just the outage time but also the costs incurred in that. Murray, anything you wish to add? Nothing to add, okay. I must have done okay on that. Okay. All right. Good.

然後剩下的一半，大部分是圍繞計劃維護的，還有一點點是和石油交易有關的。當然，維護的解釋不僅包括停機時間，還包括由此產生的費用。穆雷，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？沒什麼可補充的，好吧。我在這方面一定做得不錯。好的。好的。好的。

Thank you, Irene. We'll go to Paul Cheng, where it's very early, I think where Paul is.

謝謝你，艾琳。我們要去鄭保羅那裡，時間還很早，我想保羅在那裡。

Two questions, please. On the offshore wind in the (inaudible) you are talking about how challenging the economic has become, especially look like in the Gulf of Mexico several operators, maybe including you guys, is looking for some renegotiation on pricing. Can you comment on that? And also the talking about whether you see the offshore wind economics, especially in North America have become far more difficult because of the cost inflation.

請教兩個問題。關於海上風電（聽不清），您正在談論經濟已經變得多麼具有挑戰性，尤其是在墨西哥灣，一些運營商（也許包括你們）正在尋求重新談判定價。你能對此發表評論嗎？此外，由於成本上漲，談論您是否看到海上風電經濟（尤其是在北美）變得更加困難。

And secondly, that you have sort of a midcourse adjustment, a couple of quarters ago on the strategy and maybe that dialed back a bit more to the traditional resilient hydrocarbon business. But you're still looking for a drop of 25% by 2030. And I think it does look like the oil demand may not peak until post 2030. So from that standpoint, does it make sense for bp to further dial back and perhaps that seeking to have a flat production, means drop 25% by 2030?

其次，你在幾個季度前對戰略進行了中期調整，也許會稍微回撤到傳統的彈性碳氫化合物業務。但你仍然希望到 2030 年下降 25%。而且我認為，石油需求確實可能要到 2030 年之後才能達到峰值。因此，從這個角度來看，英國石油公司進一步縮減規模是否有意義？也許尋求產量持平意味著到 2030 年下降 25%？

Paul, thank you for your questions. I'll have a go, and Murray will correct, add and improve as appropriate. So on the second one first. So very clearly, our strategy is what we call an and, not or strategy. We are investing in today's energy system and, not or, we are investing in accelerating the energy transition. We're not making a choice between one or the other. We believe the world needs both, and we believe our shareholders are best served by us investing in both. So it's an and, not or strategy.

保羅，謝謝你的提問。我會嘗試一下，穆雷會酌情糾正、補充和改進。所以先說第二個。非常清楚的是，我們的策略就是所謂的“與”策略，而不是“或”策略。我們正在投資當今的能源系統，而不是或者，我們正在投資加速能源轉型。我們不會在兩者之間做出選擇。我們相信世界兩者都需要，而且我們相信我們對兩者進行投資可以為我們的股東提供最好的服務。所以這是一個“與”策略，而不是“或”策略。

And in February of this year, we leaned into that strategy by saying that we would invest an additional $8 billion into our resilient hydrocarbons business and an extra $8 billion into our transition growth business.

今年 2 月，我們傾向於這一戰略，表示我們將向我們的彈性碳氫化合物業務額外投資 80 億美元，並向我們的轉型增長業務額外投資 80 億美元。

In terms of oil and gas production, you'll actually have seen that we grew oil and gas production in the first half of this year. And we will see also that we've improved our outlook for oil and gas production this year from slightly declining to now expecting it to be flat year-on-year.

在石油和天然氣產量方面，您實際上會看到我們今年上半年的石油和天然氣產量有所增長。我們還將看到，我們已經改善了今年石油和天然氣產量的前景，從略有下降到現在預計與去年同期持平。

If you look at underlying oil and gas production, we'll actually grow production through the middle of the decade and it will be relatively flat through the end of the decade. The 25% is simply what we are achieving through high-grading our production through portfolio management. There were certain barrels within our portfolio that, quite frankly, are probably better off in someone else's hands. And that's what this is about. It is about a high-grading of our portfolio.

如果你看看潛在的石油和天然氣產量，我們實際上會在本世紀中期增加產量，到本世紀末產量將相對持平。 25% 正是我們通過投資組合管理提高生產水平所實現的目標。坦率地說，我們投資組合中的某些桶在別人手中可能會更好。這就是本文的目的。這是關於我們投資組合的高評級。

It is about portfolio optimization. But you should expect to see, as I said, underlying growth through the middle of the decade and flattish growth through the end of the decade. And that's where we get our strategy, that's where we provide the security that the world needs, at the same time, providing the cash flows that we need for our business. So that's one thing I would say on that.

這是關於投資組合優化。但正如我所說，你應該期望看到本世紀中期的潛在增長和本十年末的平穩增長。這就是我們制定戰略的地方，也是我們提供世界所需安全的地方，同時也提供我們業務所需的現金流的地方。這就是我要說的一件事。

And then on offshore wind, clearly, inflation has impacted offshore wind projects. And in an area where the PPAs are not inflation-linked or index-linked and where we don't see an integration benefit, per se, then obviously those projects are challenged. And that's the case in the East Coast of the United States.

然後就海上風電而言，通貨膨脹顯然已經影響了海上風電項目。在購電協議不與通脹掛鉤或與指數掛鉤且我們本身看不到整合效益的領域，顯然這些項目會受到挑戰。美國東海岸的情況就是如此。

What I can tell you categorically is that our returns threshold are sacrosanct, meaning we will not develop projects that don't meet our returns threshold, which is why we are in the midst of renegotiating those PPA contracts in the East Coast with our partner, Equinor.

我可以明確地告訴你的是，我們的回報門檻是神聖不可侵犯的，這意味著我們不會開發不符合回報門檻的項目，這就是為什麼我們正在與我們的合作夥伴重新談判東海岸的那些 PPA 合同， Equinor。

And added to that, I would say, that it is -- points to why our strategy going forward is to do offshore wind only where we see an integration benefit, i.e., we don't want to generate electrons just for electrons' sake or to ultimately put into a 20-year PPA. We want to generate electrons where we can do something with the electron, add value to the electron, like we do today with an oil and gas molecule.

除此之外，我想說的是，這說明了為什麼我們未來的戰略是僅在我們看到整合效益的情況下進行海上風電，即我們不想僅僅為了電子而產生電子，或者最終簽訂為期 20 年的購電協議。我們希望產生電子，我們可以用電子做一些事情，為電子增加價值，就像我們今天對石油和天然氣分子所做的那樣。

So our expectation is that we do offshore wind, just as you've seen in Germany, where there is a direct integrated link to our business, where we can take the electron, we can hydrate it, convert it into a molecule, convert it into a powering somebody's car, give it to our trading business, whatever. That's the evolution of the offshore wind strategy. And it is in part based on the learnings of the last 2 or 3 years. Murray, anything to add on either?

因此，我們的期望是我們從事海上風電，就像您在德國看到的那樣，那裡與我們的業務有直接的集成聯繫，我們可以獲取電子，我們可以將其水合，將其轉化為分子，將其轉化為某人的汽車提供動力，將其交給我們的貿易業務，等等。這就是海上風電戰略的演變。它部分基於過去兩三年的經驗教訓。穆雷，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. Perfect.

沒有十全十美的。

Okay. All right. Excellent. Paul, thank you. We'll go to Oswald over here.

好的。好的。出色的。保羅，謝謝你。我們要去奧斯瓦爾德那裡。

Maybe just going back to natural gas -- or sorry, LNG. You spoke about NewMed and ADNOC relationship. I'm curious, could this give you a participation in the ADNOC LNG expansion in United Arab Emirates? But more related to that is the Browse. Again, maybe elaborate on the strategy for taking on the rest of Browse that -- you used to have a very big CapEx number attached to it in terms of landed costs that might be at the high end relative to somewhere like the United Arab Emirates. So maybe just frame that LNG asset selection process.

也許只是回到天然氣——或者抱歉，液化天然氣。您談到了 NewMed 和 ADNOC 的關係。我很好奇，這能讓您參與阿拉伯聯合酋長國 ADNOC 液化天然氣擴建項目嗎？但與此更相關的是瀏覽。再次，也許詳細說明了應對 Browse 其餘部分的策略——就到岸成本而言，您曾經有一個非常大的資本支出數字，相對於阿拉伯聯合酋長國等地，這些資本支出可能處於高端。因此，也許只是構建液化天然氣資產選擇流程。

And then secondly, Permian, one of your peers talked about applying technology, potentially doubling recovery factors in the Permian over time. I wanted to get your thoughts on what you think you can do with your Permian asset as well?

其次，二疊紀，你的一位同行談到了應用技術，隨著時間的推移，二疊紀的採收率可能會翻倍。我想了解您的想法，您認為您還可以利用二疊紀資產做什麼？

Oz, thank you. Murray maybe wants to talk. He loves the Permian. So I'll let you talk a little bit about that. And then I think on the -- I don't know what we've said publicly about our Abu Dhabi LNG, so -- nothing. So let's leave.

奧茲，謝謝你。穆雷也許想談談。他喜歡二疊紀。所以我會讓你談談這一點。然後我想——我不知道我們公開談論過我們的阿布扎比​​液化天然氣，所以——什麼也沒有。那麼我們離開吧。

We're a nat gas. So we are a nat gas. We've been a nat gas forever. Yes, they are expanding, but we can't comment on that.

我們是天然氣。所以我們是天然氣。我們永遠都是天然氣。是的，它們正在擴大，但我們無法對此發表評論。

And Browse, I mean, again, very simple level, Oz, I think of it as a very big option. This is a very, very material gas resource that is very, very close to a market that's going to be short of gas for decades to come. So at the very macro level, this was a very low-cost option that we have created here.

瀏覽，我的意思是，非常簡單的關卡，奧茲，我認為這是一個非常大的選擇。這是一種非常非常重要的天然氣資源，非常非常接近未來幾十年將出現天然氣短缺的市場。因此，從宏觀層面來看，這是我們在這裡創建的一個非常低成本的選擇。

We believe that there's great potential. The numbers will have to work, the returns will have to work. That's what we are working on. Woodside is doing a fantastic job as an operator in leading on that. But you got to look at it and say, big, big gas, close to infrastructure, close to market. Got to make sense at some level. Let's see if we can make the numbers work, and that's what we're working on. And if we can, there'll be a project there. And if we can't meet our returns threshold, we won't. So that's what I would say about that. Permian or anything you want to add on the Browse one?

我們相信它有巨大的潛力。數字必鬚髮揮作用，回報也必鬚髮揮作用。這就是我們正在努力的方向。作為運營商，伍德賽德在這方面做得非常出色。但你必須看看它並說，大，大天然氣，靠近基礎設施，靠近市場。在某種程度上必須有意義。讓我們看看能否讓這些數字發揮作用，這就是我們正在努力的方向。如果可以的話，那裡將會有一個項目。如果我們無法達到退貨門檻，我們就不會。這就是我要說的。二疊紀或任何您想在瀏覽中添加的內容？

Just on the LNG portfolio itself, We have a number of very large gas basins to take forward in the second half of the decade. We'll talk about this more in Denver. Browse, 14 Tcf is enormous. Its cost of supply, if you look at WoodMac, is below U.S. export. So it's more competitive than you might think. We have M&S. We have Oman expansion, Abu Dhabi potential expansion, 22 Tcf in the Haynesville and Eagle Ford to develop.

就液化天然氣投資組合本身而言，我們有許多非常大的天然氣盆地需要在本世紀下半葉推進。我們將在丹佛進一步討論這個問題。瀏覽一下，14 Tcf 是巨大的。如果你看看 WoodMac，它的供應成本低於美國的出口成本。所以它比你想像的更具競爭力。我們有瑪莎百貨。我們有阿曼擴張、阿布扎比潛在擴張、海恩斯維爾和伊格爾福特的 22 Tcf 待開發。

So we have a wide swath of -- more in Trinidad, more in Azerbaijan. So there's lots and lots of gas opportunity inside the resource portfolio, and we'll just be very returns-driven and choose the right ones to drive forward. So I think it's okay to load up with options for free, basically.

所以我們有很多——更多在特立尼達，更多在阿塞拜疆。因此，資源組合中有很多很多天然氣機會，我們將非常注重回報，並選擇正確的機會來推動發展。所以我認為基本上免費加載選項是可以的。

On the Permian, you'll see some fabulous benchmarking from Dave Lawler when we go visit the Permian. And you might find...

在二疊紀盆地，當我們去參觀二疊紀盆地時，您會看到戴夫·勞勒 (Dave Lawler) 所做的一些精彩的基準測試。而且你可能會發現...

Always see fabulous benchmark.

總是看到神話般的基準。

And you might actually find out that we're #1 in the basin on development on frac spread length and EOR per well. You might see that in the benchmarking. You might look yourself ahead of time. So Dave's got a very positive outlook there. We've obviously got the first central gathering station, slowing Grand Slam, Bingo should come up online, hopefully, ahead of our visit there. That will be great news, 2 or 3 more to develop over time. Very, very low emissions, recirculated water, electric drive rigs and electric drive frac spreads, just incredible stuff that...

您實際上可能會發現，我們在壓裂鋪展長度和每井 EOR 開發方面在盆地中排名第一。您可能會在基準測試中看到這一點。你可能會提前審視一下自己。所以戴夫對此抱有非常積極的看法。顯然，我們已經有了第一個中央聚集站，放慢了大滿貫的速度，賓果遊戲應該會在我們訪問那里之前上線。這將是一個好消息，隨著時間的推移，還會有 2 到 3 個消息被開發出來。非常非常低的排放、循環水、電動鑽機和電動壓裂裝置，這些都是令人難以置信的東西……

First certified natural gas, I think.

我認為是第一個經過認證的天然氣。

Yes, stuff I never would have dreamt about as a kid growing up in the oil and gas patch in Calgary. So it's an amazing story, and they are driving technology at the leading edge on frac and recovery. And I think you'll find from the benchmarking work they do that we're beating the pants off everybody. But let's wait for Denver to understand that, but we continue to see great promise moving forward. And Dave will give you a great description of that.

是的，這是我小時候在卡爾加里的石油和天然氣領域長大的孩子從未夢想過的事情。這是一個令人驚嘆的故事，他們正在推動壓裂和採收領域的前沿技術。我想你會從他們所做的基準測試工作中發現我們正在擊敗所有人。但讓我們等待丹佛了解這一點，但我們繼續看到前進的巨大希望。戴夫會給你一個很好的描述。

Great. Excellent. Another reason to come to Denver. Lucas?

偉大的。出色的。來丹佛的另一個原因。盧卡斯？

Lucas Herrmann, BNP Paribas. A couple, if I might. The first, I just wondered if you could talk about Archaea integration. There have been some management changes, which given the initial statements, one could argue was slightly surprising. In other ways, are probably not. But just progress on Archaea particularly build out, not least as waste management companies, also seem to be more active in the space and trying to grab opportunity.

盧卡斯·赫爾曼，法國巴黎銀行。如果可以的話，一對。首先，我只是想知道你是否可以談談古菌整合。管理層發生了一些變化，考慮到最初的聲明，人們可能會認為這有點令人驚訝。在其他方面，可能不是。但古細菌方面的進展尤其明顯，尤其是作為廢物管理公司，似乎在該領域更加活躍並試圖抓住機會。

And secondly, just commentary around Mad Dog discovery and the tieback to Argos and if you can give any indication of -- I presume that just will allow you to remain at plateau for an extended period, but just scale and opportunity.

其次，只是關於“瘋狗”發現和與阿爾戈斯的聯繫的評論，如果你能給出任何跡象——我認為這只會讓你在較長一段時間內保持在高原狀態，但只是規模和機會。

Yes. No, thanks, Lucas. I think Mad Dog Phase 2, a little later than we had expected. Now it's online. It seems to be doing very well, 4 wells online. I think, Gordon, a fifth this weekend. And I won't get too ahead of myself, but more to come here in the next couple of months. So that's looking good.

是的。不，謝謝，盧卡斯。我認為瘋狗第二階段比我們預期的要晚一點。現在已經上線了。看起來做得很好，上線了4口井。我想，戈登，這個週末是第五名。我不會太超前，但在接下來的幾個月裡我會更多地來到這裡。所以這看起來不錯。

And you -- I mean, you answered the question quite rightly, which is, there will come a point in time when that field like the mall is on decline, we want to make sure that we keep the facility full. The best way to do that is to drill nearby. We've drilled nearby. We found something. We feel pretty good about it. And that will likely be, I don't know, 3, 5 well tie-back in the fullness of time that we'll have, as you would expect, fabless economics. So that's on that.

而你——我的意思是，你回答的問題非常正確，那就是，在某個時間點，像購物中心這樣的領域會出現衰退，我們希望確保我們的設施保持滿員。最好的方法是在附近鑽孔。我們在附近進行了鑽探。我們發現了一些東西。我們對此感覺很好。我不知道，這很可能是 3、5 個很好的回接，到時候我們將擁有，正如你所期望的，無晶圓廠經濟。就這樣吧。

And on Archaea, I think the most important thing there is Starlee Sykes is now in leading that business. Starlee ran our Gulf of Mexico business. Many of you will have met her. She ran it successfully for many years. She's one of our most trusted leaders.

在古菌方面，我認為 Starlee Sykes 現在最重要的是領導該業務。斯塔利負責我們的墨西哥灣業務。你們中的許多人都會見過她。她成功地經營了很多年。她是我們最值得信賴的領導人之一。

And as I remind people and as we remind each other, this is bp business. Archaea is no longer Archaea, it's bp. And we wanted to be run by IR people, making sure that we've got the right standards in there that we've got the right culture being built and to make sure that we leverage our company properly in accelerating delivery. And therefore, it makes sense that we put our own management in there, so to speak. Starlee is going to do a great job in Denver. There as said, she will come and present on the early days of what that looks like. We've got how many sites to build out? 80 sites to build out over the next several years. We remain confident of our $500 million EBITDA target from that business by 2025. I think the EPA recently did some updates on their allocation mechanism or whatever it is, that has strengthened rent pricing in that business.

正如我提醒人們以及我們互相提醒的那樣，這是英國石油公司的業務。古細菌不再是古細菌，而是bp。我們希望由 IR 人員來運營，確保我們擁有正確的標準，建立正確的文化，並確保我們正確利用我們的公司來加速交付。因此，可以這麼說，我們將自己的管理層放在那裡是有道理的。斯塔利將在丹佛做得很好。正如所說，她會在早期的日子裡出現並呈現出來。我們有多少個站點需要建立？未來幾年將建設 80 個站點。我們對該業務到 2025 年實現 5 億美元 EBITDA 的目標仍然充滿信心。我認為 EPA 最近對其分配機製或其他什麼進行了一些更新，這加強了該業務的租金定價。

So the fundamentals remain very, very strong. A great resource base albeit in landfills that would otherwise be damaging the environment. A great opportunity for us to capture that, build out these facilities over the next several years, optimize them hugely through Carl's business on the trading side.

因此，基本面仍然非常非常強勁。儘管位於垃圾填埋場，但資源基礎豐富，否則會破壞環境。對我們來說這是一個很好的機會，我們可以抓住這一機會，在未來幾年內建造這些設施，並通過卡爾在貿易方面的業務對其進行巨大優化。

Does it go into power, does it go into transportation, where can we create the most value? We're looking at capturing carbon at the sites now and take advantage of the higher rate, capture the carbon at those facilities. We might also capture the carbon and take it to our refinery and make e-fuels out of it, because it's biogenic carbon, again, the list goes on.

是否進入電力領域、是否進入交通領域，我們在哪裡可以創造最大的價值？我們現在正在考慮在這些地點捕獲碳，並利用更高的速率在這些設施中捕獲碳。我們還可以捕獲碳並將其帶到我們的煉油廠並用其製造電子燃料，因為它是生物碳，這樣的例子不勝枚舉。

So we just are really, really excited. I'm delighted that Starlee is in there. She's got her arms around the business. We reviewed it with her and Gordon, a couple of weeks ago and Carol. And we're feeling really, really good about it. And -- but it's early days, and there's plenty of work to be done and building out these sites isn't straightforward. It's not technically complex, but it's local and so on and so forth. But we're feeling pretty good about that business right now.

所以我們真的非常非常興奮。我很高興斯塔莉在裡面。她全心全意地關心著這件事。幾週前，我們和她、戈登以及卡羅爾一起審閱了它。我們對此感覺非常非常好。而且——但現在還處於早期階段，還有大量工作要做，而且構建這些網站並不簡單。它在技術上並不復雜，但它是本地的等等。但我們現在對該業務感覺非常好。

Anything to add? Okay. And you'll see us do more of getting our management in on day 1 as we go forward. We're doing that on TA, for example, right now. Who else? Alastair?

有什麼要補充的嗎？好的。隨著我們的前進，您會看到我們在第一天就讓我們的管理層參與進來。例如，我們現在正在 TA 上這樣做。還有誰？阿拉斯泰爾？

Murray, you mentioned Mauritania and Senegal in your list of gas basins. So what needs to happen to progress further development? And then secondly, Bernard, a colleague have asked you about politics. I'll ask you about German politics this time. But you referenced in Germany that the future market is going to be short of green electrons, that has a price implication. Do you think politicians understand that this is probably not deflationary? And I guess more importantly, are you happy sanctioning development on that basis given that in the last year or so, politicians in Europe are pretty happy to cap and tax the industry on something that they think should be affordable.

默里，您在天然氣盆地清單中提到了毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾。那麼，需要做什麼才能進一步發展呢？其次，伯納德，一位同事向你詢問了政治問題。這次我想問你一些關於德國政治的問題。但您在德國提到，未來市場將缺乏綠色電子，這對價格有影響。您認為政客們明白這可能不是通貨緊縮嗎？我想更重要的是，考慮到在過去一年左右的時間裡，歐洲政客們非常樂意對他們認為應該負擔得起的行業進行限制和徵稅，因此您是否願意在此基礎上批准開發。

Yes. I mean, on -- certainly I won't comment on German politics, I know even less about that than I knew about U.K. politics. So I won't go there. But I think the fundamentals are strong for what we're trying to do in Germany, Alastair. I think -- and let's not comment at this necessarily just from a climate standpoint, because that's where the conversation goes, and can people afford this and there's an inflationary and so on and so forth.

是的。我的意思是，我當然不會評論德國政治，我對此的了解甚至比我對英國政治的了解還要少。所以我不會去那裡。但我認為我們在德國所做的事情的基礎是強大的，阿拉斯泰爾。我認為，我們不必僅僅從氣候的角度對此發表評論，因為這就是對話的方向，人們能否負擔得起，還有通貨膨脹等等。

What Germany is doing with its ambitions that it has around offshore wind and its ambitions that it has around hydrogen, how much it will develop at home and how much it will import, yes, of course, it's influenced by climate change. But it's actually driven probably most today by energy security. It's what the country needs.

德國在海上風電和氫能方面的雄心壯志正在做什麼，國內將發展多少以及將進口多少，是的，當然，它受到氣候變化的影響。但今天它實際上可能主要是由能源安全驅動的。這就是國家所需要的。

And the only way that the country is going to diversify -- it's going to find it very difficult to do solar in Germany. The politics of that are probably difficult, as any populated country will understand. And it will look to places like offshore wind to not just supply green electrons but to supply electrons period. So our view is that there is, of course, a price to be paid here. In many ways, we're having to build a new energy system. And that's unquestionably got a cost.

該國實現多元化的唯一途徑是——它將發現在德國發展太陽能非常困難。正如任何人口稠密的國家都會理解的那樣，這在政治上可能是困難的。它將尋求海上風電等地方，不僅提供綠色電子，而且還提供電子週期。所以我們的觀點是，這當然是要付出代價的。在很多方面，我們必須建立一個新的能源系統。這無疑是有代價的。

But as we look at it and as we look at what our business is doing in Germany, then I think this is a very, very good investment for us. We feel very confident in the outlook. You can look at any of the forward curves, you can look at your outlook for carbon prices, you can look at your outlook for natural gas prices, you can look at your outlook for demand for electrons period, all of which factor into the economics of this decision as well as the cost to build as well as the premium that we've paid.

但當我們審視它以及我們在德國的業務時，我認為這對我們來說是一項非常非常好的投資。我們對前景非常有信心。你可以看看任何遠期曲線，你可以看看你對碳價格的展望，你可以看看你對天然氣價格的展望，你可以看看你對電子時期需求的展望，所有這些都會影響經濟這個決定以及建造成本以及我們支付的溢價。

And our view is that on balance, this will end up being a very good use of our capital, limited as we will make it. And we will limit the capital. This will be very, very capital light. But we will have a need, and we believe we'll supply that need cheaper and more securely by doing it ourselves than we would, if we had to do it in the marketplace. Mauritania and Senegal?

我們的觀點是，總的來說，這將是對我們資本的一個很好的利用，儘管我們的資本有限。我們將限制資本。這將是非常非常輕的資本。但我們會有需求，而且我們相信，如果我們必須在市場上做的話，我們自己做的話會更便宜、更安全地滿足這種需求。毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾？

Yes, what was the question on Mauritania and Senegal? Yes. Yes. So Phase 1 continues. We're looking forward to getting that online next year -- first quarter of next year. We just really need to come together with -- agree the concept, the engineering concept with our partners and the government, and then agree with Chevron, where the rent goes and how the LNG is priced. So it's an ongoing conversation.

是的，關於毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾的問題是什麼？是的。是的。所以第一階段仍在繼續。我們期待著明年——明年第一季度——上線。我們真的需要團結起來——與我們的合作夥伴和政府就概念、工程概念達成一致，然後與雪佛龍就租金去向以及液化天然氣定價方式達成一致。所以這是一個持續的對話。

Right now, we're really, really focused on getting Phase 1 up and we'll see over time what pace the development of Phase 2 takes. And we remain confident that there's lots of gas resources there. We just have to work through the technical decision and the commercial sharing of rent. It's not a lack of gas resource.

現在，我們真的非常專注於第一階段的啟動，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到第二階段的開發速度。我們仍然相信那裡有大量的天然氣資源。我們只需要完成技術決策和商業租金共享即可。這並不是天然氣資源缺乏。

Behind Lucas here. Henri -- Henri? What would you prefer?

就在盧卡斯身後。亨利——亨利？你想要什麼？

Either one is fine.

任何一個都可以。

You can call me Bernard or Bernard, I don't mind.

你可以叫我伯納德或伯納德，我不介意。

Henri Patricot from UBS. Two questions. The first one, just going back to the production guidance for the year. You expect it to be higher year-on-year. What's been working better than expected here? And then secondly, thank you for the enhanced disclosures for the transition growth engines. Just looking perhaps on EV charging, where I see EBITDA is still negative in the first half of the year. Can you perhaps talk about what is the trajectory here of profitability varies perhaps depending on different markets?

瑞銀集團的亨利·帕特里克。兩個問題。第一個，回到今年的生產指導。您預計它會同比更高。哪些方面比預期效果更好？其次，感謝您加強對轉型增長引擎的披露。就電動汽車充電而言，我認為上半年 EBITDA 仍然為負。您能否談談盈利能力的軌跡可能因不同市場而異？

Very good. I'll take the EV charging one, maybe. And production, Murray, what's caused you to have confidence in your production outlook for the year in oil and gas, I think, oil and gas question.

非常好。也許我會選擇電動汽車充電車。至於生產，穆雷，是什麼讓您對今年石油和天然氣的生產前景充滿信心，我認為是石油和天然氣問題。

On EV charging, we got 3 main markets and an emerging fourth market. So we've got China, Europe and the U.K. I guess U.K. is part of Europe, but you understand why point so, China, Europe, U.K. and the emerging one is the United States.

在電動汽車充電方面，我們有3個主要市場和一個新興的第四個市場。所以我們有中國、歐洲和英國。我想英國是歐洲的一部分，但你明白為什麼這麼說，中國、歐洲、英國，而新興的是美國。

So in places like Spain, for example, where I was recently, we have a partnership with Iberdrola, I think we've committed EUR 1 billion this decade to build that charging network out between the 2 of us.

因此，在像西班牙這樣的地方，例如我最近去過的地方，我們與 Iberdrola 建立了合作夥伴關係，我認為我們在這十年中已承諾投入 10 億歐元來建設我們兩人之間的充電網絡。

Germany, we're #2 in fast charging [AMA] in Germany today. We were #1. We must have slipped to #2. I think we'll be back to #1, I hope, sometime in the future. But we're there or thereabouts as the largest. And then we're building a very resilient network here in Britain. In China, it's -- that market is definitely electrifying. I think it's either 30% or 40% of new vehicles are EV today that are being bought in the market. There is no question what China is doing, and we're seeing it in the utilization rates.

德國，我們今天在德國的快速充電 [AMA] 領域排名第二。我們是#1。我們肯定已經滑落到第二位了。我想我們會回到第一，我希望，在未來的某個時候。但我們是最大的。然後我們正在英國建立一個非常有彈性的網絡。在中國，這個市場絕對是令人興奮的。我認為目前市場上購買的新車中有 30% 或 40% 是電動汽車。毫無疑問，中國正在做什麼，我們從利用率中看到了這一點。

And it's the utilization rates that are then driving the fact that China today is EBITDA positive. The same is true in Germany, where we are seeing not really a slowdown in the purchasing of these cars, the utilization is on the up and therefore Germany is also EBITDA positive today. It's obviously a growth business. We have to invest. But we do expect what is a negative EBITDA business today to turn into a positive business by 2025.

正是利用率推動了中國今天的 EBITDA 為正值。德國的情況也是如此，我們看到這些汽車的購買並沒有真正放緩，利用率正在上升，因此德國今天的 EBITDA 也為正值。這顯然是一個增長型業務。我們必須投資。但我們確實預計，目前的 EBITDA 業務為負值，到 2025 年將轉為正值業務。

We did, as I said in the script, announced that now that we have the land in America, we announced that we sanctioned $0.5 billion with AMA to build out our charging network in the United States. That's over the next 2 to 3 years and then we'll go beyond that. We'll take advantage of the TA network, of course, and start putting chargers down there. But this Hertz partnership where we are building Gigahubs and this is where we can charge 100 cars at 1 time at major airports like Houston Hobby is really begin to take off. So U.S. is quite exciting for us.

正如我在劇本中所說，我們確實宣布，既然我們在美國擁有了土地，我們宣布我們將向 AMA 撥款 5 億美元，用於在美國建設我們的充電網絡。這是未來 2 到 3 年的事情，然後我們將超越這個目標。當然，我們將利用 TA 網絡，並開始在那裡放置充電器。但我們與 Hertz 的合作夥伴關係正在真正開始騰飛，我們正在建造 Gigahub，我們可以在休斯敦霍比等主要機場一次為 100 輛汽車充電。所以美國對我們來說非常令人興奮。

And you have seen the price changes that are happening in America on the new EV car purchases, which are making the purchase of an EV vehicle more and more attractive. And as I always say, there's an F-150 electric, which I think they increased the price of by 14% or 15% because the demand is so high for it, which is quite extraordinary. So this is an exciting business for us. We are feeling good about it. We're learning a lot about the business. Lots of opportunities to optimize. You may have met Robyn Beavers at some point, Blueprint Power, a company that we bought a couple of years ago that's focused on residential power, our power in buildings and how to manage power in buildings and how to optimize it.

您已經看到美國購買新電動汽車的價格發生變化，這使得購買電動汽車變得越來越有吸引力。正如我常說的，有一款 F-150 電動車，我認為他們將其價格提高了 14% 或 15%，因為對它的需求如此之高，這是非常了不起的。所以這對我們來說是一項令人興奮的業務。我們對此感覺良好。我們正在學習很多有關業務的知識。很多優化的機會。您可能在某個時候見過 Robyn Beavers，Blueprint Power，這是我們幾年前收購的一家公司，專注於住宅電力、建築物電力以及如何管理建築物電力以及如何優化電力。

They're actually helping the EV people where to place the chargers. And that software and that insight of the market and the knowledge can make a huge difference in the EBITDA profile of a charging location. And we think that their help alone has made us a couple of hundred million dollars of EBITDA in that business in the United States alone as it comes online over the next several years.

他們實際上是在幫助電動汽車用戶放置充電器。該軟件以及對市場的洞察力和知識可以對充電地點的 EBITDA 狀況產生巨大影響。我們認為，僅靠他們的幫助，我們就在美國的這項業務在未來幾年內上線時就獲得了數億美元的 EBITDA。

So we're learning a lot. We're excited about it. And right now, China, Germany, where we're seeing the highest utilization, very EBITDA positive. And by '25, we expect the entire business to be EBITDA positive.

所以我們學到了很多東西。我們對此感到興奮。目前，中國和德國的利用率最高，EBITDA 非常樂觀。到 25 年，我們預計整個業務的 EBITDA 將為正值。

Production, Murray?

生產，穆雷？

Yes. We upgraded our production outlook for 2023, as you noticed. And that's really -- congratulate -- I'll follow Lucas' example, congratulating Gordon again. Congratulations to Gordon again for great performance inside bpx and great performance inside the Gulf of Mexico. So those are the 2 principal places that are well ahead of where we thought they would be. Mad Dog is producing from 4 wells 70,000 barrels a day. That's a stunning performance from the reservoir. That makes us really excited.

是的。正如您所注意到的，我們上調了 2023 年的生產前景。這真的是——恭喜——我會效仿盧卡斯的榜樣，再次祝賀戈登。再次祝賀 Gordon 在 bpx 和墨西哥灣的出色表現。因此，這兩個主要位置遠遠超出了我們的預期。 Mad Dog 的 4 口井每天生產 70,000 桶石油。這是水庫的驚人表現。這讓我們非常興奮。

You told me I couldn't say that.

你告訴我我不能這麼說。

No, it's public data. It's public data after the fact. I said you couldn't say the sequence of new wells coming online, because we don't want pressure on the teams. But just fabulous performance out of the lower half, lower 48 and out of the Gulf of Mexico which has encouraged us to upgrade our guidance for the year. So very pleased with that. And thank you, Gordon.

不，這是公開數據。這是事後的公開數據。我說你不能說出新井上線的順序，因為我們不想給團隊帶來壓力。但下半區、下 48 區和墨西哥灣的出色表現鼓勵我們上調今年的指導。對此非常滿意。謝謝你，戈登。

Yes. And while Tangguh is late, it's probably a little earlier than we had anticipated for -- those of you interested in big pipelines, which we count ourselves. There is a 48-inch pipe there and a 60-inch?

是的。雖然Tangguh遲到了，但它可能比我們預期的要早一些——那些對大型管道感興趣的人，我們自己也算。那裡有一個48英寸的管子和一個60英寸的？

80-inch.

80 英寸。

80-inch pipeline. Can you imagine, an 80-inch? Yes, it's a 74 and an 80-inch or something like that extraordinary. So thank you. A question back here, please. Peter?

80英寸管道。你能想像，80英寸嗎？是的，它是 74 英寸和 80 英寸或類似的非凡產品。所以謝謝。請回到這裡問一個問題。彼得？

It's Peter Low from Redburn. So my first one was just on the financial framework. You talk about kind of 40% of excess cash flow going to the balance sheet. But actually kind of net debt has increased over the past year, kind of despite the strong commodity price environment. Kind of based on your guidance today, should we think that now begins to come down as we look into the 12 months ahead?

我是來自雷德本的彼得·洛。所以我的第一個只是關於財務框架。你談到 40% 的超額現金流進入資產負債表。但實際上，儘管大宗商品價格環境強勁，但過去一年的淨債務有所增加。根據您今天的指導，當我們展望未來 12 個月時，我們是否應該認為現在開始下降？

And then the second one was just on OP&O. The gas realization was a little bit weaker than I might have expected. Is that just reflective of kind of the weaker kind of spot price environment? Or is there anything else going on there?

然後第二個就在 OP&O 上。天然氣的實現比我的預期要弱一些。這是否只是反映了現貨價格環境較弱的情況？或者還有其他事情發生嗎？

Great. Murray?

偉大的。穆雷？

OPO gas, a little bit weaker than you expect, 50% down as opposed to 35% on the marker. That's just the lag on NBP. So the U.K. prices lagged NBP and that's what's driving that difference. It will reverse itself over time. Eric can help you if that doesn't make sense, but that's the reason for that one.

OPO 氣體，比您預期的要弱一些，下降了 50%，而標記上則下降了 35%。這只是 NBP 的滯後。因此，英國價格落後於 NBP，這就是造成這種差異的原因。隨著時間的推移，它會自行逆轉。如果這沒有意義，埃里克可以幫助你，但這就是原因。

A second priority inside the framework is to reduce net debt. Yes, we've been reducing net debt. I think, 14 quarters in a row, we've been reducing net debt. Yes, it goes up this quarter. Why did it go up this quarter? Obviously, we had our Deepwater Horizon payment and then we had TA, which is the $1.1 billion of capital and the assumed debt that we get with it.

該框架內的第二個優先事項是減少淨債務。是的，我們一直在減少淨債務。我認為，我們已經連續 14 個季度減少了淨債務。是的，這個季度有所上升。為什麼這個季度會上漲？顯然，我們有深水地平線付款，然後有 TA，即 11 億美元的資本和我們由此獲得的假定債務。

So it's an increase of $1.6 billion for TA. That's not a bad thing. TA comes with $800 million of EBITDA. That's accretive to rating. So we shouldn't necessarily just obsess about net debt. What's important for the rating is cash cover ratio.

因此，對於 TA 來說，增加了 16 億美元。這並不是一件壞事。 TA 擁有 8 億美元的 EBITDA。這會增加評級。因此，我們不一定只關注淨債務。對於評級來說重要的是現金覆蓋率。

And TA, although it drove net debt up, is really good for the rating as it's accretive. And we like that. It gives us diversification and it gives us accretion on the rating. So we think that's very positive. As we move forward, no change for 2023, 60-40. And you've heard how we're thinking about surplus in the second half of the year. I would expect 40% of that surplus to go to the balance sheet to continue strengthening and as well dependent, of course, on what the oil price is. I hope that helps.

儘管技術援助推高了淨債務，但它確實有利於評級，因為它具有增值性。我們喜歡這樣。它給我們帶來了多元化，也給我們帶來了評級的增加。所以我們認為這是非常積極的。隨著我們的前進，2023 年 60-40 沒有變化。您已經聽說我們如何考慮下半年的盈餘。我預計盈餘的 40% 將進入資產負債表，以繼續加強，當然，這也取決於油價。我希望這有幫助。

Great. Thanks, Murray. Martijn? Been patiently waiting here at the front, who's over here, who can next.

偉大的。謝謝，穆雷。馬丁？一直在前面耐心等待，誰在這，誰可以下一個。

Two questions. One, I'm sure Murray might not actually answer this, but I'm going to ask it nonetheless. If you -- I wanted to ask if you could reflect on the weakish oil trading results. Because if you look at the oil markets in the second quarter, all the things that didn't work, are working spectacularly well in the third quarter. So I was wondering if you could tell us a little bit about like is this a bit of a tumble every quarter? Or can we sort of expect that weak quarters and strong quarters and weak quarters and strong quarters sort of should alternate each other? I would be quite interested in that.

兩個問題。第一，我確信默里可能不會真正回答這個問題，但我還是會問。如果你——我想問你是否可以反思疲弱的石油交易結果。因為如果你看看第二季度的石油市場，所有不起作用的事情在第三季度都表現得非常好。所以我想知道您是否可以告訴我們一些關於每個季度是否都會出現一些下滑的情況？或者我們是否可以預期疲軟季度和強勁季度以及疲軟季度和強勁季度應該相互交替？我對此非常感興趣。

And secondly, on Kaskida, of course, kind quite an interesting project given that it sort of come back after many years. I was wondering if there are any milestones that we should be looking out for and sort of the time frames that are associated with this project?

其次，在 Kaskida 上，當然，這是一個非常有趣的項目，因為它在很多年後又回來了。我想知道我們是否應該關注任何里程碑以及與該項目相關的時間框架？

Great. Thank you, Martijn. So rather than Murray not answering it, why don't I not answer it? So I don't think volatility is cyclical on a quarterly basis, It's driven by more than the calendar. So yes, I think we'll say nothing more than it was a weak second quarter. It's probably -- I think the one thing that you can say as you look forward in the world in general, and it applies to the energy markets particularly and therefore it will have an influence on trading over time, is that the energy transition is complex. And therefore, complexity will likely lead to volatility. And as everybody knows, volatility is constructive for a trading business. So I won't comment on third quarter volatility. I don't think you're incorrect, but we'll leave it at that.

偉大的。謝謝你，馬丁。那麼與其穆雷不回答，我為什麼不回答呢？因此，我認為波動性不是按季度計算的周期性波動，它的驅動因素不僅僅是日曆。所以，是的，我想我們只會說第二季度表現疲軟。我認為，當你展望整個世界時，你可以說的一件事尤其適用於能源市場，因此隨著時間的推移，它將對交易產生影響，那就是能源轉型是複雜的。因此，複雜性可能會導致波動。眾所周知，波動性對於交易業務來說是有建設性的。所以我不會對第三季度的波動發表評論。我不認為你錯了，但我們就這樣吧。

And Kaskida, yes, we were just saying this morning. We discovered it in 2006. It's a big, big resource, a lot of oil in place. And the question was how to recover it economically. It's a good story, I think, of the company retaining an option. And we retained that option over many, many years. At the same time as us doing that, the industry has moved forward. 20,000 rigs have been built are in operation. People have been successful with not just the technical aspects of the developments, but also increasing the learning around how these reservoirs produce.

卡斯基達，是的，我們今天早上剛剛說過。我們在 2006 年發現了它。這是一個巨大的資源，蘊藏著大量的石油。問題是如何在經濟上恢復它。我認為，這是一個關於公司保留選擇權的好故事。我們保留了這個選擇很多很多年。在我們這樣做的同時，這個行業也在不斷向前發展。已建造 20,000 個鑽井平台並投入運行。人們不僅在技術方面取得了成功，而且還增加了對這些儲層如何生產的了解。

And both of those things are encouraging for us. So we're encouraged by what we see others do. We feel that its time has come. It has entered concept select. Unusually, it's 100% bp. And our job now and the team is focused on working through that optimization and getting us to a project that we can develop that's economic. And that's what we're focused on doing. And at the same time as we're doing that, we're focused on Tiber, which is at an earlier stage in the thinking, so to speak. But if Kaskida enters the frame, there's no reason why Tiber wouldn't also enter the frame. So just watch this space over the coming quarters as we get more engineering definition, cost definition around the concept. But this is one that should see FID, if it will, in the next 2 to 3 years, I would think. So that's how I would think about it.

這兩件事對我們來說都是令人鼓舞的。因此，我們會因看到其他人所做的事情而受到鼓舞。我們覺得時機已經到來。已進入概念選擇階段。不同尋常的是，它是 100% bp。我們現在和團隊的工作重點是通過優化並讓我們開發出一個經濟的項目。這就是我們專注於做的事情。與此同時，我們正在關注 Tiber，可以說，它正處於思考的早期階段。但如果卡斯基達進入畫面，泰伯就沒有理由不進入畫面。因此，只要在未來幾個季度關注這個領域，我們就會圍繞這個概念獲得更多的工程定義和成本定義。但我認為，如果會的話，這應該在未來 2 到 3 年內進行最終投資決定。這就是我的想法。

Kim? Christyan has joined us at the back, I think.

金？我想克里斯蒂安已經在後面加入了我們。

Just on the NewMed deal, first of all, I understand the ADNOC side of the transaction is still being worked out, but I was just wondering what was taking so long to finalize the deal. And secondly, I wanted to hear your thoughts on the attractiveness of the U.K. as an investment destination for upstream and low carbon in light of recent changes, such as the change to the U.K. and your profits levy, the announcement of new licensing rounds and government support for CCS.

就 NewMed 交易而言，首先，我了解到 ADNOC 方面的交易仍在製定中，但我只是想知道為什麼要花這麼長時間才能完成交易。其次，我想听聽您對英國作為上游和低碳投資目的地的吸引力的看法，考慮到最近的變化，例如英國和您的利潤稅的變化、新一輪許可的宣布和政府支持CCS。

Great. So what is taking so long? These things just take some time and we're working through the process. I don't think there's anything that's of particular note. We're involved in a public company and it takes time to go through the necessary processes. So it's not a signal of something amiss, so to speak. It's just that these things take time and the intent remains very clear from all parties, I think, to close this transaction. And then on the U.K., I think let me just say, generically what I would say and what I've said this morning to some of the media, we're supportive of any policies or directions which acknowledge that the world needs a rapid transition and it needs an orderly transition.

偉大的。那麼是什麼需要這麼長時間呢？這些事情只需要一些時間，我們正在完成這個過程。我認為沒有什麼特別值得注意的。我們參與了一家上市公司，需要時間來完成必要的流程。所以可以這麼說，這並不是出現問題的信號。只是這些事情需要時間，而且我認為各方完成這筆交易的意圖仍然非常明確。然後在英國，我想我想說的是，一般來說，我想說的話以及我今天早上對一些媒體所說的話，我們支持任何承認世界需要快速轉型的政策或方向它需要一個有序的過渡。

And for us, that means an and, not or strategy, for us in the U.K., that means investing in the North Sea and investing in the transition. And that's what we're doing. We probably, probably have the most diverse energy strategy of any company, probably in Britain. We're involved in oil and gas today. We're drilling. We're on a 5-well campaign, I think, west of Shetlands today that's drilling. We're bringing on Seagull later this year. And we'll continue to look at licenses and investment decisions there based on the information that we have at the time.

對我們來說，這意味著“與”，而不是“或”戰略，對我們英國來說，這意味著投資北海並投資於轉型。這就是我們正在做的事情。我們可能擁有所有公司中最多樣化的能源戰略，可能是在英國。今天我們涉足石油和天然氣領域。我們正在鑽孔。我想，我們今天正在設得蘭群島以西進行 5 口井的鑽探活動。我們將在今年晚些時候推出 Seagull。我們將根據我們當時掌握的信息繼續研究許可和投資決策。

And at the same time that we're doing that, Lightsource BP is developing solar projects. In fact, I think, they developed the biggest solar project in the U.K., as far as I know. We're in offshore wind in the U.K. or in the Irish Sea, which is looking good, by the way, and in Scotland. We're in green and blue hydrogen at Teeside. We're in net zero power or low-carbon power at Teeside, we're in CCS. We're building out an EV charging infrastructure here in Britain, focused on fast charging, which is going very well. I was at our Hammersmith site with the team a few weeks ago, utilization levels, record utilization there. So we are active and we're importing LNG into the country. So we're active right across the spectrum, and that should give you a sense of how we see Britain as a place to invest. We're going to invest up to GBP 18 billion in Britain this decade. And of course, every decision is taken on the basis of the facts known to us at that time. But that's probably all I will say on that.

與此同時，Lightsource BP 正在開發太陽能項目。事實上，據我所知，他們開發了英國最大的太陽能項目。我們在英國或愛爾蘭海（順便說一句，愛爾蘭海看起來不錯）和蘇格蘭都採用海上風電。我們在蒂賽德處於綠色和藍色氫氣中。我們在蒂賽德採用淨零功率或低碳電力，我們採用 CCS。我們正在英國建設電動汽車充電基礎設施，重點是快速充電，進展順利。幾週前，我和團隊一起去了我們的哈默史密斯工廠，了解那裡的利用率水平和利用率記錄。所以我們很積極，正在向該國進口液化天然氣。因此，我們在各個領域都很活躍，這應該讓您了解我們如何將英國視為投資地。這十年我們將在英國投資高達 180 億英鎊。當然，每一個決定都是根據我們當時所知的事實做出的。但這可能就是我要說的全部內容。

Christyan, did you want to question? And then I think we're...

克里斯蒂安，你想問嗎？然後我想我們...

Christyan Malek from JPMorgan. Most of my questions have been answered. But I sort of want to come -- 2 questions, one on the capital frame. And this is -- no one is ever going to complain about a dividend increase. So thanks for that. But I sort of -- it sounds to me that there's a lot of upside through both your projects, the reversals in trading. So I just want to understand more just conceptually the logic of raising the dividend when you could just put more into buybacks. I mean, it's the third time you've raised the dividend in the last 12 months. And yes, you've lowered the share count, but the math doesn't square entirely.

摩根大通的克里斯蒂安·馬利克。我的大部分問題都得到了解答。但我有點想來——兩個問題，一個是關於資本框架的。這是——沒有人會抱怨股息增加。所以謝謝你。但在我看來，你們的兩個項目以及交易的逆轉都有很多好處。因此，我只是想從概念上更多地了解當您可以投入更多資金進行回購時提高股息的邏輯。我的意思是，這是您在過去 12 個月內第三次提高股息。是的，你已經減少了股票數量，但數學並不完全一致。

So I kind of want to understand why you didn't just fully -- and maybe this is a rhetorical question, your shares achieved you're clearly more constructive on the macro outlook. So why not put it all in buybacks? So it's again, it's not a complaint about or challenge in the capital frame. It's more just -- just if you could share some of that logic if the shares are cheaper, if you will, in terms of where they are today.

所以我有點想理解為什麼你不完全——也許這是一個反問句，你的股票實現了你對宏觀前景顯然更有建設性。那麼為什麼不將其全部投入回購呢？所以，這又不是對資本框架的抱怨或挑戰。如果你願意的話，如果你願意的話，就目前的股價而言，你可以分享一些這樣的邏輯，那就更公平了。

And the second question is just trying to pick your brain around -- where would you -- if you sat down and sort of challenge yourself around where could you be wrong on the macro, whether it's refining, gas, power prices or oil. How would you frame, on a sort of scale of 1 to 10, where you're probably most bullish across your portfolio, whether it's oil prices, refining. I just want to understand to what extent are you being pro-cyclical across different parts of the business in thinking about your outlook on the medium term?

第二個問題就是試著思考一下——如果你坐下來挑戰一下自己，你在宏觀方面可能會在哪裡出錯，無論是煉油、天然氣、電力價格還是石油。您如何以 1 到 10 的等級劃分，您在整個投資組合中最看好哪些方面，無論是油價還是煉油。我只是想了解，在考慮中期前景時，您在業務不同部門的順週期程度如何？

Thanks, Christyan, I'll let Murray take the first question. I mean, I think on the second question, we all have views on the outlook for different product streams. And of course, the reality is we never quite know. I can create a very strong case for oil. Why would I do that? I think, everybody is talking about global economic growth and what's happening there. Everybody is talking about what's happening in China. And yet, we probably will see well an excess -- or in excess of 2 million barrels a day of demand growth in oil this year. And we expect that to continue into next year. Maybe not at the 2 million, but certainly well in excess of 1 million.

謝謝克里斯蒂安，我讓穆雷回答第一個問題。我的意思是，我認為關於第二個問題，我們對不同產品流的前景都有看法。當然，現實是我們永遠不知道。我可以為石油創造一個非常有力的理由。我為什麼要這麼做？我認為，每個人都在談論全球經濟增長以及那裡正在發生的事情。每個人都在談論中國正在發生的事情。然而，今年我們可能會看到石油需求增長過剩，即每天超過 200 萬桶。我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。也許不是 200 萬，但肯定遠遠超過 100 萬。

So you look at that, you look at the fact that OPEC+ remains exceptionally disciplined, if not increasingly disciplined and show no sign of changing that tack. And I guess in discipline, you also look at the U.S., where I think the rig count has fallen to the lowest level now since February of last year, down by, I think, 20%. I think oil rigs down 12%, gas rigs down 12% oil -- gas rigs down more. So I create there a situation where you described the outlook for oil prices to be strong over the coming months and years.

所以你看看這一點，你看看歐佩克+仍然非常遵守紀律，即使不是越來越遵守紀律，也沒有顯示出改變這一方針的跡象。我想在紀律方面，你還可以看看美國，我認為美國的鑽機數量已降至去年 2 月以來的最低水平，我認為下降了 20%。我認為石油鑽井平台下降了 12%，天然氣鑽井平台下降了 12%，石油-天然氣鑽井平台下降更多。因此，我創造了一種情況，您描述了未來幾個月和幾年油價的前景將保持強勁。

We, of course, know that there are numerous uncertainties, and we go further on plan on that basis and that's how we run the company on the basis of a $40 oil price, a $3 Henry Hub price and an $11 RMM. And we have no intention of moving away from running the company on that basis. Because we believe that's the prudent and right way to run the company. And if oil prices and refining margins and gas are higher, then so be it. We want to make sure that we take full advantage of that, and Murray will talk to how we allocate the surplus cash.

當然，我們知道存在許多不確定性，我們在此基礎上進一步製定計劃，這就是我們在 40 美元的油價、3 美元的亨利中心價格和 11 美元的 RMM 的基礎上運營公司的方式。我們無意放棄在此基礎上經營公司。因為我們相信這是謹慎、正確的公司經營方式。如果石油價格、煉油利潤和天然氣價格更高，那就這樣吧。我們希望確保充分利用這一點，默里將討論我們如何分配剩餘現金。

Gas, you go through a similar story. Europe, you'd say better positioned than last. Of course, storage levels mean we're in a much better position than we were last winter. Does that mean that we're out of the woods? You can't say that. Why not? Because there was a lot of demand destruction last winter, maybe 20% to 25% in industry. What happens to that is, does that remain, does it return? We don't quite know the weather, which we all see.

Gas，你也經歷過類似的故事。你可能會說歐洲的地位比去年更好。當然，庫存水平意味著我們的處境比去年冬天要好得多。這是否意味著我們已經走出困境了？你不能這麼說。為什麼不？因為去年冬天需求被大量破壞，工業上可能有20%到25%。那會發生什麼，它會保留嗎？它會回來嗎？我們不太了解天氣，但我們都看到了。

So there are many things that are uncertain there. I think the 1 thing that you can expect through all of these product streams is probably a lot of volatility, probably more so than we have experienced in history. But you may wish to add to that, Murray. And obviously, then the conversation about why not more buybacks.

所以這裡面有很多事情是不確定的。我認為通過所有這些產品流，您可以預期的一件事可能是很大的波動性，可能比我們歷史上經歷過的波動性更大。但你可能想補充一點，穆雷。顯然，接下來的討論是關於為什麼不進行更多回購。

Yes, I guess we're just -- the only thing I'd add is we run the company for a low breakeven and we'll take the upside. And so we run it on the balance point of $40, and we sanction projects at $50, $3 Henry Hub. So we run it very prudently. And then upside -- is upside, I think, is the only thing to add.

是的，我想我們只是——我唯一要補充的是，我們以較低的盈虧平衡點運營公司，我們會抓住機遇。因此，我們在 40 美元的平衡點上運行，我們以 50 美元、3 美元亨利中心批准項目。所以我們非常謹慎地運作它。然後是上行空間——我認為，這是唯一需要補充的。

On the capital frame, dividend versus buyback, I think the hint is in the ordering. So the hint is in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Our first priority is a dividend. We have the capacity to grow at 4% per annum. And above all else, we want that dividend to be resilient at $40, $11 and $3, and we will continue to increase it over time, while we can keep that balance point alive and well and healthy in the event the macro turns against us.

在資本框架、股息與回購方面，我認為暗示就在排序中。所以提示在1、2、3、4、5中。我們的首要任務是股息。我們有能力以每年 4% 的速度增長。最重要的是，我們希望股息能夠保持在 40 美元、11 美元和 3 美元的彈性水平，並且我們將隨著時間的推移繼續增加股息，同時在宏觀經濟形勢對我們不利的情況下，我們可以保持這一平衡點的活力和健康。

But that is our first priority. And that gives you the hint of how we think about dividend versus buyback through the frame. Obviously, we have a churn. We've retired 9.2% of our share count over the past 12 months, 10% is a bit higher. Obviously, performance, as you can hear, we're performing really, really well.

但這是我們的首要任務。這讓您了解我們如何通過框架思考股息與回購。顯然，我們有流失。在過去 12 個月裡，我們已經註銷了 9.2% 的股票，1​​0% 的比例稍高一些。顯然，正如您所聽到的，我們的表現非常非常好。

Updating the production guidance in 2023, so a huge sign of confidence to do that halfway through the year. So I just think we have an awful lot of confidence in the business moving forward. We'll focus on that $40, $11, $3 balance point as we approach the dividend, and it is the first priority for shareholder distribution.

更新 2023 年的生產指南，這是人們對在年中完成這一任務充滿信心的巨大跡象。所以我認為我們對業務的發展充滿信心。當我們接近股息時，我們將關注 40 美元、11 美元、3 美元的平衡點，這是股東分配的首要任務。

Great. Excellent. Thank you, Christyan. Any other questions? And we have no questions online. And we didn't -- Greg, anything else from you? And you didn't write me a close so I'll have to ad-lib. So thank you all very, very much. I think we just say that we continue to focus on delivery. The company is very focused now on 2025. We have what we call a drive to '25. We're very clear on what our numbers are, what our targets are for 2025. We fully expect to deliver on those. We've got 10 quarters. That's hugely important to us. So it's head down inside the company.

偉大的。出色的。謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。還有其他問題嗎？我們在網上沒有任何問題。我們沒有——格雷格，你還有什麼消息嗎？而且你沒有給我寫結束語，所以我只能即興發揮。非常非常感謝大家。我想我們只是說我們繼續專注於交付。公司現在非常關注 2025 年。我們有所謂的“25 驅動力”。我們非常清楚我們的數字是什麼，我們的 2025 年目標是什麼。我們完全期望能夠實現這些目標。我們還有 10 個季度。這對我們來說非常重要。所以公司內部都是低著頭的。

We're executing simply on the plan that we have laid out. Nothing more, nothing less. I'm really proud of the team, many of the leadership are in the room here today, but the team throughout bp, very grateful to them for everything that they do. We thank you for your interest in our company. And we hope you get a break over the holidays. We're certainly hoping to get a break over the August period, and let's leave it at that.

我們只是按照我們制定的計劃執行。不多不少。我真的為這個團隊感到自豪，今天這裡有很多領導層，但整個英國石油公司的團隊都非常感謝他們所做的一切。我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣。我們希望您能在假期裡休息一下。我們當然希望在八月期間能夠休息一下，但我們就這樣吧。

So thanks, everybody. Thanks for taking the time to join us. Appreciate it.

謝謝大家。感謝您抽出時間加入我們。欣賞它。