Vistra Corp (VST) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

瑞致達舉辦了一場投資者網路廣播,討論其 2024 年第二季度的強勁業績,持續營運調整後 EBITDA 為 14.14 億美元。該公司重申了 2024 年的指導方針,並提高了 2025 年的預期。 他們計劃重點關注戰略重點、資本配置和能源轉型工作,目標是增加新的氣體燃料發電量。

瑞致達公佈了強勁的季度業績,並計劃執行股票回購、簽訂購電協議並支付股息。談話還涉及潛在投資、市場改革、對沖策略和客戶需求。

瑞致達始終致力於可靠、經濟且永續地滿足能源需求。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Vistra second-quarter 2024 results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加瑞致達 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Micek。請繼續。

  • Eric Micek - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Eric Micek - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our second-quarter 2024 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com.

    早安,感謝大家參加瑞致達的投資者網路廣播,討論我們的 2024 年第二季業績。我們今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。

  • There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release. Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    在那裡,您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。今天主持電話會議的是瑞致達總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke 和瑞致達執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。

  • They are joined by other Vistra's senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary. Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

    瑞致達其他高階主管將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。

  • Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix of the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.

    收益報告和瑞致達網站投資者關係部分的投資者介紹附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。此外,今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。

  • Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

    此類前瞻性陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explains the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

    我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報第2 張幻燈片中包含的安全港聲明,其中解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非公認會計準則的使用財務措施。我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke)。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Eric. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us to discuss our second quarter 2024 operational and financial results.

    謝謝你,埃里克。早安,感謝大家加入我們討論我們 2024 年第二季的營運和財務表現。

  • Beginning on slide 5, you can see the team has been hard at work across multiple parts of our business. Through their efforts, we achieved ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $1.414 billion, a very strong second quarter against a backdrop of lower wholesale energy prices across the country.

    從投影片 5 開始,您可以看到團隊一直在我們業務的多個部分努力工作。透過他們的努力,我們的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 達到 14.14 億美元,在全國批發能源價格較低的背景下,第二季的表現非常強勁。

  • While results benefited from the inclusion of the first full quarter contribution from the Energy Harbor businesses, consistent execution from our generation, commercial and retail teams played a major role in this achievement.

    雖然業績得益於能源港業務的第一個完整季度貢獻,但我們的發電、商業和零售團隊的一致執行力在這項成就中發揮了重要作用。

  • Specifically, our diversified portfolio of generation assets produced record levels of power for our customers while completing the planned outages needed to prepare the fleet for the crucial summer months. Our retail business, led by our flagship TXU Energy brand, delivered year-over-year growth while producing solid margin performance and maintaining a top score on the PUC of Texas Power To Choose scorecard.

    具體來說,我們多元化的發電資產組合為客戶提供了創紀錄的電力水平,同時完成了為關鍵的夏季月份準備機隊所需的計劃停電。我們的零售業務,以我們的旗艦 TXU Energy 品牌為主導,實現了同比增長,同時產生了穩健的利潤率表現,並在德克薩斯州電力選擇記分卡的 PUC 上保持了最高分。

  • Finally, despite the weather volatility across the country, in general, power prices cleared below our hedge levels. Through strong execution of our comprehensive hedging program by our commercial team, our second quarter results reflect the solid performance anticipated when we set our expectations for the year.

    最後,儘管全國各地天氣波動較大,但總體而言,電價仍低於我們的對沖水平。透過我們的商業團隊強有力地執行我們的綜合對沖計劃,我們第二季的業績反映了我們設定今年預期時預期的穩健業績。

  • Turning to guidance, we are reaffirming our guidance range for 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $4.550 billion to $5.050 billion. Based on performance to date and our forecast for the remainder of the year, we are confident in our ability to deliver towards the upper end of this range.

    至於指導,我們重申 2024 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的指導範圍為 45.5 億美元至 50.5 億美元。根據迄今為止的業績以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預測,我們對實現這一範圍上限的能力充滿信心。

  • As we noted during our first quarter results call, our guidance excludes any potential benefit related to the nuclear production tax credit, or PTC, given the uncertainty around the interpretation of gross receipts in the regulations.

    正如我們在第一季業績電話會議中指出的那樣,鑑於法規中總收入解釋的不確定性,我們的指導方針排除了與核能生產稅收抵免(PTC)相關的任何潛在收益。

  • However, based on where prices settled in the first seven months of the year and the forward curve for the balance of the year, we believe the impact of the PTC to our 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA could be upwards of $400 million.

    然而,根據今年前 7 個月的價格結算情況以及今年剩餘時間的遠期曲線,我們認為 PTC 對我們 2024 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的影響可能超過 4 億美元。

  • Moving to our long-term outlook, our integrated business model, which combines critical dispatchable generation assets with premier retail business positions us well to create long-term value in the current volatile and growing markets.

    展望我們的長期前景,我們的綜合業務模式將關鍵的可調度發電資產與一流的零售業務相結合,使我們能夠在當前動盪和不斷增長的市場中創造長期價值。

  • Given our hedging activity over the past several months and the recent 2025, 2026 PJM planning year auction results, we are raising our estimated 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range by $200 million to $5.2 billion to $5.7 billion.

    鑑於我們過去幾個月的對沖活動以及最近的2025 年、2026 年PJM 規劃年拍賣結果,我們將預計2025 年持續營運調整後EBITDA 中點機會範圍提高了2 億美元至52 億美元至57 億美元。

  • Similar to our 2024 guidance, our range of 2025 ongoing operations midpoint opportunities excludes any estimates related to the nuclear PTC. However, it is important to note that we believe the nuclear PTC will provide downside support for such range of opportunities, and we will continue to evaluate the appropriate timing for including PTC estimates in our forecast.

    與我們的 2024 年指導類似,我們的 2025 年持續營運中點機會範圍不包括與核 PTC 相關的任何估計。然而,值得注意的是,我們相信核 PTC 將為此類機會提供下行支持,並且我們將繼續評估將 PTC 估計納入我們的預測的適當時機。

  • Underpinning the improvement in our outlook is our focus on our four key strategic priorities outlined on slide 6. Our integrated business model leverages our diverse portfolio of generation assets, coupled with our strong retail brands to deliver more consistent results as evidenced by our second quarter performance.

    支撐我們前景改善的是我們對幻燈片6 中概述的四個關鍵戰略優先事項的關注。的結果,正如我們第二季的業績所證明的那樣。

  • Our core tenet of one team continues to foster not only teamwork, but drives learning and best practices across all aspects of our company to create a culture of continuous improvement, including at our recently added PJM nuclear sites.

    我們「一個團隊」的核心宗旨不僅繼續促進團隊合作,而且推動公司各個方面的學習和最佳實踐,以創造一種持續改進的文化,包括我們最近新增的 PJM 核電廠。

  • As discussed on the previous slide, our commercial teams continue to execute on our comprehensive hedging program to provide visibility into the earnings power of the business while also providing meaningful downside protection to our long-term outlook.

    正如上一張投影片中所討論的,我們的商業團隊繼續執行我們全面的對沖計劃,以提供對業務盈利能力的可見性,同時也為我們的長期前景提供有意義的下行保護。

  • While our current 2024 guidance and long-term outlook both exclude any estimates related to the nuclear PTC, we believe the availability of a nuclear PTC derisks a substantial portion of the earnings potential of our nuclear assets, making them increasingly more valuable.

    雖然我們目前的2024 年指導和長期展望均排除了與核PTC 相關的任何估計,但我們認為核PTC 的可用性降低了我們核資產很大一部分盈利潛力的風險,使它們變得越來越有價值。

  • Switching to capital allocation. We view this as a critical responsibility, and we will remain disciplined in our allocation process. We continue to execute the capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021.

    轉向資本配置。我們認為這是一項重要責任,我們將在分配過程中保持紀律。我們繼續執行 2021 年第四季實施的資本回報計畫。

  • Since that time, we returned approximately $5 billion to our investors, including $4.25 billion of share repurchases through August 5 of this year. We expect to execute at least $2.25 billion of share repurchases throughout '24 and '25.

    自那時起,我們向投資者返還了約 50 億美元,其中包括截至今年 8 月 5 日的 42.5 億美元股票回購。我們預計在 2024 年和 25 年期間將執行至少 22.5 億美元的股票回購。

  • Moving to the balance sheet, our financial position remains strong with net leverage at the end of the quarter at three times ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. We continue to expect net leverage to be below three times by year-end 2024.

    轉向資產負債表,我們的財務狀況依然強勁,季度末的淨槓桿比率是持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的三倍。我們仍預計到 2024 年底淨槓桿率將低於三倍。

  • On energy transition, we continue to be opportunistic in executing our renewable development pipeline. We began construction on two new large-scale solar projects, one in Texas and one in Illinois. To ensure full offtake from these facilities, we executed new long-term power purchase agreements with two of the world's leading technology companies, one with Amazon and the other with Microsoft.

    在能源轉型方面,我們繼續抓住機會執行再生能源開發計畫。我們開始建造兩個新的大型太陽能項目,一個位於德克薩斯州,一個位於伊利諾州。為了確保這些設施的全面發電,我們與兩家世界領先的科技公司簽署了新的長期購電協議,一家與亞馬遜,另一家與微軟。

  • We are excited to partner with these well-known companies to provide carbon-free electricity for their operations. Moving forward, our development opportunity pipeline remains robust. Our large geographic footprint across the country, which encompasses more than 70 sites with great interconnects, and thousands of acres of land for development, provides ample opportunities to meet customer needs for a particular energy technology or to co-locate operations.

    我們很高興與這些知名公司合作,為其營運提供無碳電力。展望未來,我們的發展機會管道仍然強勁。我們在全國範圍內擁有廣闊的地理足跡,包括 70 多個互聯互通的站點以及數千英畝的開發土地,為滿足客戶對特定能源技術的需求或在同一地點開展業務提供了充足的機會。

  • Our approach to the energy expansion continues to responsibly balance reliability, affordability and sustainability while ensuring disciplined project returns for our shareholders. We have highlighted this approach in our most recent sustainability report, which we published on July 31.

    我們的能源擴張方法繼續負責任地平衡可靠性、可負擔性和可持續性,同時確保為股東帶來嚴格的專案回報。我們在 7 月 31 日發布的最新永續發展報告中強調了這一方法。

  • We are proud of the approach we take to sustainability, which ensures that we are reducing our emissions while also creating a sustainable business strategy for all of our stakeholders.

    我們對我們採取的永續發展方法感到自豪,這確保我們在減少排放的同時,為所有利害關係人制定可持續的業務策略。

  • Moving to slide 7. In we see a potential significant supply gap emerging in the largest markets we serve. During our first quarter results call, we outlined the potential multiple drivers of future demand, and these include the reshoring of industrial activity, partially due to the CHIPS Act, the build-out of data centers, whether behind the meter or in front of the meter, increased electrification of commercial, industrial and residential loads, and strong population growth, particularly in Texas.

    轉到投影片 7。 我們看到我們服務的最大市場中出現了潛在的巨大供應缺口。在第一季業績電話會議中,我們概述了未來需求的潛在多重驅動因素,其中包括工業活動的回流(部分原因是《CHIPS 法案》)、資料中心的擴建(無論是在電錶後面還是在電錶前面)儀表、商業、工業和住宅負荷電氣化的增加以及人口的強勁增長,尤其是在德克薩斯州。

  • In addition to this demand growth, we believe current environmental policies will drive significant retirements of dispatchable thermal generation, notably coal plants, through the end of the decade, creating a supply-demand gap.

    除了需求成長之外,我們認為目前的環境政策將推動可調度火力發電(尤其是燃煤電廠)在本世紀末大量退役,造成供需缺口。

  • Many of these policies are driven by decisions at the state level and are less influenced by federal policies. Supported by PJM's recent market reforms, the higher clearing prices for the '25, '26 capacity auction are beginning to signal to competitive market participants, leading investors who can respond to this supply gap.

    其中許多政策是由州級的決策所驅動的,受聯邦政策的影響較小。在 PJM 最近的市場改革的支持下,'25、'26 容量拍賣的較高清算價格開始向競爭性市場參與者發出信號,引導投資者能夠應對這種供應缺口。

  • While it is only one auction clear, capacity revenues over time can help offset lower wholesale energy prices, which have softened in the outer years since our last call in May.

    雖然只有一次拍賣明確,但隨著時間的推移,容量收入可以幫助抵消批發能源價格的下降,自從我們五月上次電話會議以來,批發能源價格在過去幾年已經疲軟。

  • Generation units are long-lived assets in a consistent, predictable market framework focused on reliability is necessary to attract capital for new dispatchable supply.

    發電機組是長期資產,在一個一致的、可預測的市場框架中,重點關注可靠性,這對於吸引新的可調度供應的資金是必要的。

  • The Texas market relies almost exclusively on the wholesale energy price to incentivize new generation, and we have seen a lot of volatility in these forward curves.

    德州市場幾乎完全依賴批發能源價格來激勵新一代,我們已經看到這些遠期曲線有很大的波動。

  • Policymakers have recently created the Texas Energy Fund to provide lower cost financing and completion bonuses for up to 10 gigawatts of new gas fuel dispatchable generation. This does provide some financial support for new build, but we believe forward price signals and market reforms will be necessary to attract sufficient equity capital to build new gas fuel generation.

    政策制定者最近創建了德克薩斯能源基金,為高達 10 吉瓦的新型氣體燃料可調度發電提供較低成本的融資和完成獎金。這確實為新建案提供了一些財政支持,但我們認為,為了吸引足夠的股本來建設新的天然氣燃料發電,需要前瞻性價格訊號和市場改革。

  • However, in a competitive market, as has been the case in Texas for nearly 30 years, there will be many market participants and investors to evaluate their opportunities and decide their best path forward. As we announced in late May, we are targeting up to 2,000 megawatts of dispatchable gas fuel generation additions at ERCOT.

    然而,在競爭激烈的市場中,就像德州近30年的情況一樣,會有許多市場參與者和投資者評估他們的機會並決定他們的最佳前進道路。正如我們在 5 月下旬宣布的那樣,我們的目標是在 ERCOT 增加多達 2,000 兆瓦的可調度氣體燃料發電量。

  • This includes 500 megawatts of augmentations at existing facilities, nearly half of which we have brought online already this summer and up to 600 megawatts from the conversion of our Coleto Creek coal plant to a gas fueled unit, which will take place after the plant's retirement in the middle of 2027.

    這包括對現有設施進行500 兆瓦的擴建,其中近一半已於今年夏天投入使用,以及將我們的Coleto Creek 燃煤電廠改造為天然氣燃料機組,將增加600 兆瓦的電力,這將在該電廠於2017 年退役後進行。

  • These investments represent accretive opportunities for our company, while preserving good paying jobs for our fellow Texans. We also submitted our application in July for the Texas Energy Fund financing for up to 860 megawatts of advanced peaker plants in West Texas.

    這些投資為我們公司帶來了增值機會,同時為我們的德州同胞保留了高薪​​工作。我們還在 7 月提交了德克薩斯州能源基金申請,為西德克薩斯州高達 860 兆瓦的先進調峰發電廠提供融資。

  • As noted in our announcement, we are in the early stages of development of these plants as we monitor the successful implementation of key market reforms focused on grid reliability as well as efficient market signals.

    正如我們在公告中所指出的,我們正處於這些電廠開發的早期階段,因為我們正在監控以電網可靠性和有效市場訊號為重點的關鍵市場改革的成功實施。

  • These key reforms include a suite of ancillary services, the performance credit mechanism, or PCM, and an effective reliability standard, a first for Texas. We will continue to work with policymakers and other stakeholders to shape a robust framework for investment in Texas.

    這些關鍵改革包括一套輔助服務、績效信用機制(PCM)以及有效的可靠性標準,這在德州尚屬首次。我們將繼續與政策制定者和其他利益相關者合作,制定一個強大的德州投資框架。

  • Looking broadly across the markets we serve, the interconnection queues are largely filled with wind, solar and battery resources for a number of reasons, including tax incentives, state policies and the preferences of large customers.

    綜觀我們所服務的市場,由於稅收優惠、國家政策和大客戶的偏好等多種原因,互連隊列中大部分都是風能、太陽能和電池資源。

  • The combination of low growth, coal plant retirements and additional intermittent resources will require both baseload and flexible dispatchable units.

    低成長、燃煤電廠退役和額外的間歇性資源的結合將需要基本負載和靈活的可調度機組。

  • Vistra is well positioned with its diversified fleet and we will continue to work with policymakers, customers and communities to ensure their energy needs are met reliably, affordably and sustainably.

    瑞致達憑藉其多元化的船隊處於有利地位,我們將繼續與政策制定者、客戶和社區合作,確保他們的能源需求得到可靠、經濟和永續的滿足。

  • This is what drives our purpose at Vistra, and our team is excited about the future set of opportunities. And with that, I will turn it over to Kris to provide a detailed review of our first quarter results. Kris?

    這就是我們瑞致達的目標的驅動力,我們的團隊對未來的一系列機會感到興奮。接下來,我將把它交給克里斯,對我們第一季的業績進行詳細的審查。克里斯?

  • Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 9, Vistra delivered another strong quarterly result, with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.414 billion including $625 million from generation and $789 million from retail. This represents an approximately 40% improvement year-over-year and brings our year-to-date ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA to $2.227 billion.

    謝謝你,吉姆。轉向幻燈片 9,瑞致達公佈了另一個強勁的季度業績,持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 約為 14.14 億美元,其中 6.25 億美元來自發電,7.89 億美元來自零售。這意味著同比增長約 40%,使我們年初至今的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 達到 22.27 億美元。

  • Notably, the performance of generation and retail year-to-date, together with our forecast for both businesses for the remainder of the year, are driving our confidence in Vistra's ability to deliver 2024 aggregate results towards the upper end of the guidance range.

    值得注意的是,今年迄今發電和零售業務的表現,以及我們對今年剩餘時間這兩項業務的預測,增強了我們對瑞致達實現 2024 年總體業績達到指導範圍上限的能力的信心。

  • Focusing on year-over-year results, despite continued summer weather in Texas and lower wholesale prices across competitive markets, the generation team once again capitalized on the volatility in the quarter by optimizing the run profile of our generation units, including ramping down and buying power from the market when economically appropriate.

    儘管德州持續夏季天氣且競爭激烈的市場批發價格較低,但發電團隊著眼於同比業績,透過優化發電機組的運作狀況(包括減產和購買),再次利用本季的波動性在經濟條件允許的情況下,可以從市場獲得力量。

  • The team's ability to perform in a variety of market conditions is made possible by the consistently high operational performance, the diversity and the flexibility of our fleet. Turning to retail. Our second quarter results benefited from the continuation of higher accounts and margins cited in the first quarter.

    該團隊能夠在各種市場條件下發揮作用,這得益於我們機隊始終如一的高營運績效、多樣性和靈活性。轉向零售。我們第二季的業績得益於第一季帳戶和利潤率的持續成長。

  • Additionally, as expected, due to the evolving seasonality of underlying power costs, the retail team delivered a significantly higher portion of the expected annual ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2024 as compared to 2023.

    此外,正如預期的那樣,由於基礎電力成本的季節性變化,與 2023 年相比,零售團隊在 2024 年上半年交付的預期年度持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的比例明顯更高。

  • Finally, our 2024 results for generation and retail have benefited from the inclusion of the former Energy Harbor businesses, which benefit totaled approximately $200 million for the second quarter and approximately $260 million year-to-date.

    最後,我們的 2024 年發電和零售業績得益於將前能源港業務納入其中,第二季度的收益總計約 2 億美元,年初至今的收益總計約 2.6 億美元。

  • The contribution from these businesses, for both the second quarter and year-to-date results, was primarily driven by the PJM nuclear fleet, which accounted for approximately three-quarters of the contribution in both periods.

    這些業務對第二季和年初至今業績的貢獻主要是由 PJM 核電機組推動的,該機隊約佔這兩個時期貢獻的四分之三。

  • Moving to slide 10, we have seen significant volatility in forward power price curves in the last several months. However, our commercial team was able to take advantage of this volatility, increasing our wholesale hedge balances to approximately 86% in calendar year 2025, and approximately 55% in calendar year 2026 at what we believe to be attractive prices.

    轉向投影片 10,我們看到過去幾個月遠期電價曲線出現顯著波動。然而,我們的商業團隊能夠利用這種波動性,將我們的批發對沖餘額在 2025 年增加到約 86%,在 2026 年增加到約 55%,我們認為價格具有吸引力。

  • As Jim noted earlier, given our current hedge positions in 2025, combined with the prices realized in the recent 2025, 2026 PJM planning year capacity auction, we increased our estimate for the 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range by $200 million.

    正如吉姆早些時候指出的,考慮到我們目前在2025 年的對沖頭寸,再加上最近2025 年、2026 年PJM 規劃年產能拍賣中實現的價格,我們對2025 年持續運營調整後EBITDA 中點機會範圍的估計增加了2 億美元。

  • Although forward power prices have generally fallen since our first quarter earnings call, the additional hedges we have executed and the 2025, 2026 PJM auction results continue to give us confidence in our estimated 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of more than $6 billion, even before we update our assumptions for the upcoming 2026, 2027 PJM planning year capacity auction.

    儘管自第一季財報電話會議以來遠期電價普遍下跌,但我們執行的額外對沖以及2025 年、2026 年PJM 拍賣結果繼續讓我們對預計2026 年持續運營調整後EBITDA 中點機會超過60 億美元充滿信心,即使在我們更新即將到來的 2026 年、2027 年 PJM 規劃年產能拍賣的假設之前。

  • Notably, as is the case with our 2024 guidance, our long-term outlook excludes any estimates related to the nuclear PTC, which could be meaningful.

    值得注意的是,與我們的 2024 年指引一樣,我們的長期前景排除了與核 PTC 相關的任何估計,這可能是有意義的。

  • Finally, we continue to target a conversion rate of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow before growth of 55% to 60% for 2025 and beyond, excluding any upside from the nuclear PTC, which is generally expected to benefit adjusted free cash flow before growth at least one year after being recognized in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA.

    最後,我們繼續將持續經營調整後EBITDA 與調整後自由現金流的轉換率目標定為2025 年及以後增長55% 至60%,不包括核PTC 的任何上行空間,一般預計核PTC 將使調整後自由現金流受益在持續經營業務中確認調整後的 EBITDA 至少一年後,才能實現成長。

  • As a result, we expect to generate a meaningful amount of unallocated capital through 2026, which we expect to discuss in more detail on our third quarter results call in November.

    因此,我們預計到 2026 年將產生大量未分配資本,我們預計將在 11 月的第三季業績電話會議上更詳細地討論這個問題。

  • Finally, we provide an update on the execution of our capital allocation plan on slide 11. Our share repurchase program has generated significant value to our shareholders. Since beginning the program in November 2021, we reduced our shares outstanding by approximately 135 million shares or approximately 29% at an average price per share of approximately $27.50.

    最後,我們在投影片 11 上提供了有關資本分配計畫執行的最新資訊。自 2021 年 11 月開始該計畫以來,我們已將流通股減少了約 1.35 億股,約 29%,每股平均價格約為 27.50 美元。

  • Despite the increase in our stock price in 2024, we still see our shares trading at an elevated free cash flow yield and continue to believe allocating capital to share repurchases is an important priority. To that end, as Jim noted, we expect to execute at least $2.25 billion of share repurchases over the course of 2024 and 2025, and at least an additional $1 billion in 2026.

    儘管我們的股價在 2024 年有所上漲,但我們的股票交易自由現金流收益率仍然較高,並且仍然認為分配資本用於股票回購是重要的優先事項。為此,正如 Jim 指出的那樣,我們預計將在 2024 年和 2025 年期間執行至少 22.5 億美元的股票回購,並在 2026 年至少額外執行 10 億美元。

  • Moving to the balance sheet, Vistra's net leverage ratio currently sits at three times ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA despite the additional debt that was required to close the Energy Harbor acquisition in the first quarter of this year. We expect it to return to below three times by the end of 2024. We continue to target a long-term net leverage ratio, not including the benefit of margin deposits below three times.

    轉向資產負債表,瑞致達的淨槓桿率目前為持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的三倍,儘管今年第一季完成能源港收購需要額外債務。我們預計到 2024 年底它將恢復到三倍以下。

  • As Jim discussed earlier, we are excited to announce the two long-term power purchase agreements with Amazon and Microsoft for two new large-scale solar facilities. As a reminder, we expect to fund approximately 60% to 70% of our solar and energy storage capital expenditures with nonrecourse financing.

    正如吉姆之前討論的那樣,我們很高興地宣布與亞馬遜和微軟就兩個新的大型太陽能設施簽訂了兩項長期購電協議。提醒一下,我們預計將透過無追索權融資為約 60% 至 70% 的太陽能和儲能資本支出提供資金。

  • We remain committed to our opportunistic approach to our solar and energy storage growth strategy and continue to target levered returns of mid-teens or higher for these projects.

    我們仍然致力於對太陽能和儲能成長策略採取機會主義態度,並繼續將這些項目的槓桿回報目標定為十幾歲或更高。

  • Finally, as we highlighted in the first quarter results call, in connection with the closing of the Energy Harbor acquisition, we begun paying dividends to the minority investors in Vistra Vision.

    最後,正如我們在第一季業績電話會議中所強調的那樣,隨著能源港收購的完成,我們開始向 Vistra Vision 的少數投資者支付股息。

  • Our current expectation is that we will pay approximately $135 million of such dividends in 2024. We view these dividends as part of our capital allocation program as we continue to analyze Vistra's earnings power on a consolidated basis.

    我們目前的預期是,我們將在 2024 年支付約 1.35 億美元的此類股息。

  • We are very proud of the Vistra team's performance in the first half of the year and we remain committed to executing against our four strategic priorities. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

    我們對瑞致達團隊今年上半年的表現感到非常自豪,我們仍然致力於執行我們的四個策略重點。接線員,我們就可以開始提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim.

    沙爾·普雷扎,古根漢。

  • Shar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Good morning, Jim.

    嘿,夥計們。早安,吉姆。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Morning, Shar.

    早安,莎爾。

  • Shar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Jim, just in light of the PJM capacity print, would you consider investing in new gas or storage in RTO at this point? I mean, do you think one or two more prints at this level are sufficient to attract new entry? Does this kind of change any of your thinking regarding any potential coal to gas on the Sunset fleet? Thanks.

    Jim,根據 PJM 產能列印,您此時會考慮投資新天然氣或 RTO 儲存嗎?我的意思是,您認為再多一兩張這個等級的印刷品就足以吸引新的進入嗎?這是否會改變您對日落船隊任何潛在的煤改氣的想法?謝謝。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, sure. It's a great question. PJM has been working on market reforms for quite some time, and we've talked about that on previous calls. It's a long process, and I think they've made great headway in looking at the sort of contribution that different resource classes, like dispatchable can provide. And I think we saw that reflected in this most recent clear.

    是的,當然。這是一個很好的問題。 PJM 致力於市場改革已經有一段時間了,我們在之前的電話會議中也討論過這一點。這是一個漫長的過程,我認為他們在研究不同資源類別(如可調度)可以提供的貢獻方面取得了很大進展。我認為我們在最近的這張清晰的照片中看到了這一點。

  • It is only one auction, of course, and not long enough out in the future to be starting a new project because they are behind, obviously, and they're catching up on the number of auctions in the next couple of years. This December will be another interesting signal.

    當然,這只是一場拍賣,未來的時間還不夠長,無法開始一個新項目,因為顯然他們已經落後了,而且他們正在追趕未來幾年的拍賣數量。今年 12 月將是另一個有趣的信號。

  • We think it can clear at or above where this most recent clear was just given some of the fundamentals. And I think that does make PJM attractive. I think that's one of the things that PJM is offering now is a signal towards assets that provides us reliability benefit.

    我們認為,根據一些基本面,價格可能會達到或高於最近的價格水準。我認為這確實使 PJM 具有吸引力。我認為 PJM 現在提供的服務之一是向資產發出信號,為我們提供可靠性優勢。

  • We have a number of sites in PJM operating. We obviously have some coal plants, we could look at potential conversions at some point to gas. And I think others will look at that as well. But it is a good signal. Shar, it's still early stages, but I think a lot of progress has been made there.

    我們在 PJM 經營多個站點。顯然我們有一些燃煤電廠,我們可以考慮在某個時候將其轉化為天然氣的可能性。我認為其他人也會關注這一點。但這是一個好的訊號。 Shar,現在還處於早期階段,但我認為已經取得了很大進展。

  • Shar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Got it. Perfect. And then just, Jim, on 2026, right, obviously, you reiterated the midpoint opportunity, but we saw some trade-offs between the curves falling in the blowout PJM capacity number.

    知道了。完美的。然後,吉姆,關於 2026 年,顯然,您重申了中點機會,但我們看到井噴 PJM 產能數字下降的曲線之間存在一些權衡。

  • Question is like, would you have been at that $6 billion figure before the auction results? Maybe if you could just put a little bit of a finer point on the ranges around the year, even directionally? Thanks.

    問題是,在拍賣結果公佈之前,您是否會達到 60 億美元的數字?也許您可以對一年中的範圍進行更精細的描述,甚至是方向性的?謝謝。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Yes, good question, Shar. So when we first announced the $6 billion plus, we were talking about this on the May call. Curves were actually quite strong at that point in time in the market, in Texas in PJM, frankly, across the country.

    當然。是的,好問題,莎爾。因此,當我們首次宣布 60 億美元以上的資金時,我們在 5 月的電話會議上討論了這一點。事實上,當時市場上的曲線相當強勁,坦白說,在德州的 PJM,在全國範圍內都是如此。

  • As you know, the curves have come off quite a bit. We were about 50% hedged on that call. Now we're about 55% hedged. So we have seen some gross margin for particularly the unhedged portion erode some of the '26 earnings. But we had a sense because of our open position, Shar, we wouldn't have put $6 billion plus out if we couldn't handle some volatility in the curves because that's just the nature of the business we're in.

    如您所知,曲線已經下降了不少。我們在那次看漲期權中對沖了大約 50% 的資金。現在我們大約有 55% 是對沖的。因此,我們看到一些毛利率,特別是未對沖部分的毛利率侵蝕了 26 年的部分收益。但由於我們的未平倉頭寸,我們有一種感覺,Shar,如果我們無法處理曲線中的一些波動,我們就不會投入 60 億美元以上,因為這就是我們所處業務的本質。

  • With this clear, obviously, that captures only part of 2026 and this auction coming up in December will capture the other part of 2026. We did not revise the 2026 number. As you noted, we did revise 2025. I think with these -- with the clear we've had and this upcoming clear, we are strongly above the $6 billion plus figure, but we're going to refresh that next quarter.

    顯然,這一點很清楚,這僅涵蓋了 2026 年的一部分,而 12 月舉行的拍賣將涵蓋 2026 年的另一部分。正如您所指出的,我們確實修改了2025 年。 。

  • When we come out next quarter, we'll give you a 2025 guidance number, which is not what we've provided today. We merely reflected the auction clear for 2025, and we'll give more visibility into 2026.

    當我們下個季度發佈時,我們將為您提供 2025 年的指導數字,這不是我們今天提供的。我們只是清楚地反映了 2025 年的拍賣情況,我們將對 2026 年提供更多的可見性。

  • But the business has been very resilient. And I think the diversification of our fleet, plus having the retail business, the earnings power of the business is strong.

    但該業務一直非常有彈性。而且我認為我們機隊的多元化,加上擁有零售業務,這項業務的獲利能力很強。

  • Shar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Got it. Perfect. And then just one more quick one. Just on the FERC Technical Conference, I know you guys have been obviously super vocal in the Susquehanna ISA Amendment process. Has the technical conference, has that slowed any of the conversations you've been having with customers around co-location opportunities? Thanks.

    知道了。完美的。然後再快一點。就在 FERC 技術會議上,我知道你們在薩斯奎哈納 ISA 修正案過程中顯然表現得非常積極。技術會議是否會減慢您與客戶圍繞主機託管機會的對話?謝謝。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Shar, it has not slowed the conversation down. I think, first of all, these conversations are numerous. Not only are there a lot of customers that we were having conversations with, but they're having conversations with a lot of potential suppliers like ourselves. We're making really good progress with our customers. We're in due diligence for a number of sites.

    莎爾,這並沒有減慢談話的速度。我認為,首先,這些對話很多。我們不僅與許多客戶進行對話,而且他們還與許多像我們一樣的潛在供應商進行對話。我們與客戶取得了非常好的進展。我們正在對許多網站進行盡職調查。

  • Clearly, this process, including a technical conference, is of interest to folks. But these are some long-dated conversations and these are sizable decisions that folks are making. If they contract for one of our larger sites, for instance, they could be approaching $1 billion a year in power costs at a single site.

    顯然,這個過程(包括技術會議)引起了人們的興趣。但這些都是一些長期的對話,也是人們正在做出的重大決定。例如,如果他們與我們的一個較大站點簽訂合同,那麼單一站點每年的電力成本可能會接近 10 億美元。

  • So these take time to evolve, but it has not slowed the pace of play. I think there's going to be plenty of data center load behind the meter or co-located and also front of the meter. I think there's going to be plenty. And I think they're evaluating -- these customers are evaluating all their options.

    所以這些需要時間進化,但並沒有放慢遊戲的節奏。我認為電錶後面或同一位置以及電錶前面都會有大量的資料中心負載。我認為會有很多。我認為他們正在評估——這些客戶正在評估他們所有的選擇。

  • So we'll see how the technical conference goes. We're clearly in support of FERC approving this amended ISA. We think the record is very clear on that, but more to come, and we're going to stay active as I know all of the market participants will.

    那麼我們將看看技術會議進展如何。我們明確支持 FERC 批准這項修訂後的 ISA。我們認為記錄在這方面非常清楚,但還會有更多記錄,我們將保持活躍,正如我知道所有市場參與者都會保持活躍一樣。

  • But this is a really big opportunity for our industry to meet customer needs, and frankly, create a lot of jobs, a lot of economic development, and I hope as an industry, we don't get in our own way here and that we're able to see that this loan growth is really beneficial for our economy broadly. And we expect these conversations to stay active until we get to a decision with a couple of key customers, which we're pretty optimistic about.

    但這對我們的行業來說確實是一個巨大的機會,可以滿足客戶的需求,坦率地說,可以創造大量的就業機會,促進大量的經濟發展,我希望作為一個行業,我們不會在這裡以自己的方式行事,我們希望我們能夠看到,這種貸款成長確實對我們的整體經濟有利。我們預計這些對話將保持活躍,直到我們與幾個關鍵客戶做出決定,我們對此感到非常樂觀。

  • Shar Pourreza - Analyst

    Shar Pourreza - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. Thank you, guys so much. Much appreciated.

    好的。完美的。非常感謝你們。非常感謝。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Shar.

    謝謝你,莎爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Angie Storozynski, Seaport.

    安吉·斯托羅辛斯基,海港。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • Thank you. So just continuing on this topic of the co-locations and general, the load growth. So we're seeing some raised conversations from wires on the utilities and competitive markets. PJM, in particular, they are seemingly concerned about the load growth and reliability of the electric service over the next couple of years as this load materializes.

    謝謝。因此,我們繼續討論主機託管和負載增長這一主題。因此,我們看到一些來自電報的關於公用事業和競爭市場的對話。尤其是 PJM,他們似乎擔心未來幾年隨著這種負載的實現,電力服務的負載成長和可靠性。

  • And so that led to some concerns about potential interventions in competitive power markets, regulated new build, you name it. And that seemingly is not just a response to the new build projections, but also to this last PJM capacity auction.

    因此,這引發了人們對競爭性電力市場的潛在幹預、受監管的新建等的擔憂。這似乎不僅是對新預測的回應,也是對最後一次 PJM 產能拍賣的回應。

  • I mean, it's somewhat concerning, right, because the same parties were not raising their hands to support merchant power plants when power prices were super low. And seemingly, it should be a cyclical market where we shoot spikes in power and capacity prices to incentivize new build.

    我的意思是,這有點令人擔憂,對吧,因為當電價超低時,這些團體並沒有舉手支持商業發電廠。看起來,這應該是一個週期性市場,我們會透過提高電力和容量價格來刺激新建專案。

  • I mean, how do you manage this narrative? Do you sort of rush your assets to contract them to protect them against any sort of market interventions? Do you think that this is just a rhetoric that will pass? Is basically the pool so big that all parties can benefit? I mean, my take has been that just that goes to show that wires on the utilities know that the best way to benefit is through generation assets, but I'm just going to wonder how you're going to approach that?

    我的意思是,你如何處理這個敘述?您是否會急於將您的資產收縮以保護它們免受任何形式的市場幹預?你以為這只是一句說辭就能過去嗎?基本上資金池夠大,各方都能受益嗎?我的意思是,我的看法是,這表明公用事業公司知道受益的最佳方式是透過發電資產,但我只是想知道你將如何處理這個問題?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Angie, there's a lot in that question. It is something we think about quite a bit. The beauty of a competitive market is anybody can build generation in a competitive market, and that includes the regulated utilities as long as they're doing it in the competitive market context.

    是的。安吉,這個問題有很多內容。這是我們經常思考的事情。競爭市場的美妙之處在於,任何人都可以在競爭市場中發電,其中包括受監管的公用事業公司,只要他們在競爭市場環境中這樣做即可。

  • That framework has shown over the years, over $80 billion has been invested by competitive companies in PJM since the market opened.

    該框架多年來顯示,自市場開放以來,有競爭力的公司已在 PJM 投資了超過 800 億美元。

  • Over $100 billion has been invested by competitive companies at ERCOT since the market opened. This is the first clear as we just talked about that has shown real life in quite some time. And while it looks like it's 9 times to 10 times higher than the last clear, on average, is bringing maybe 40% to 50% of what you would need to build a new gas plant. This is not a clear that in and of itself without energy margin makes all the math work from an investor point of view. I know the regulated utilities feel a need to serve their customers with a reliable product, and we feel that need as well.

    自市場開放以來,有競爭力的公司已在 ERCOT 投資了超過 1000 億美元。這是我們剛才談到的第一個清晰的內容,它已經在相當長的一段時間內展示了現實生活。雖然看起來比上次清理的量高出 9 到 10 倍,但平均而言,它帶來的資源可能是建造新天然氣工廠所需資源的 40% 到 50%。這並不清楚,從投資者的角度來看,如果沒有能源邊際,所有的數學計算都可以發揮作用。我知道受監管的公用事業公司認為需要為其客戶提供可靠的產品,我們也認為有這種需求。

  • That is a core tenet of our strategy. I think there's plenty of investment opportunities on the transmission and distribution side to not only serve new load, but to connect the new generation resources. And that queue has been slow to develop in PJM, and I know PJM wants to accelerate that.

    這是我們策略的核心宗旨。我認為輸電和配電方面有大量的投資機會,不僅可以服務新的負荷,而且可以連接新一代的資源。 PJM 的隊列發展緩慢,我知道 PJM 希望加速這一進程。

  • So I still go back to what I said just a minute ago, I don't think we should be worried about, are there some ancillary services that need to be paid or some wires charges that need to be paid. The customers we're talking to, want to pay for the services that they're being delivered, whether that's on the wire side or the generation side.

    所以我還是回到我剛才說的,我認為我們不應該擔心,是否有一些輔助服務需要支付或一些電匯費用需要支付。我們正在交談的客戶希望為他們所提供的服務付費,無論是在有線方面還是在發電方面。

  • I think there's plenty of opportunity for all of us to work together to not only make this an economic opportunity for our respective companies, but to meet the customer need. That's ultimately what we're doing here is meeting a customer need and I think we're going to all have to work together to do it.

    我認為我們所有人都有很多機會共同努力,不僅使這成為我們各自公司的經濟機會,而且還可以滿足客戶的需求。最終,我們在這裡所做的就是滿足客戶的需求,我認為我們所有人都必須共同努力才能做到這一點。

  • But it's something that I think, Angie, is going to unfold through time. Nothing happens in the power market as fast as the technology space would like it to. And frankly, as fast as we would like it to. So I think we just need to keep the dialogue open and work through these issues. But we think there's plenty to go around for this to be a real boom for all stakeholders.

    但我認為,安吉,這將隨著時間的推移而展開。電力市場的變化速度沒有技術領域所希望的那麼快。坦白說,只要我們希望它能盡快完成即可。所以我認為我們只需要保持對話並解決這些問題。但我們認為,要讓所有利害關係人實現真正的繁榮,還有很多事情要做。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • And then as far as your approach to those co-location deals and any other long-term contracts, I mean, it seems like you were taking this portfolio strategy. But I'm just wondering, it almost feels like the timeliness of the essence, not just about the time to market for tech companies, but also as far as regulatory scrutiny of these deals.

    然後,就您對這些託管交易和任何其他長期合約的處理方式而言,我的意思是,您似乎正在採取這種投資組合策略。但我只是想知道,這幾乎感覺像是本質上的及時性,不僅涉及科技公司的上市時間,還涉及對這些交易的監管審查。

  • I mean, don't you think that maybe it would be worth pulling forward some of these transactions not to wait for all of the reviews to happen just to announce these deals on like a plant by plant? Again, not portfolio announcements, but just plant by plant deals, again, if only because there could be more risk to future deals as none of these co-locations happen?

    我的意思是,您是否認為也許值得推遲其中一些交易,而不是等待所有審核完成才像工廠一個工廠那樣宣布這些交易?再說一次,不是投資組合公告,而只是逐個工廠的交易,再一次,如果只是因為未來交易可能會面臨更大的風險,因為這些共址都沒有發生?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think, Angie, the regulatory questions obviously are getting some attention, but I still view this as a customer-driven event. The customers are going to want to sign these contracts and get comfortable with the resources, the location, the speed with which they will energize, the terms under which we'll do business.

    是的。我認為,安吉,監管問題顯然正在引起一些關注,但我仍然認為這是一個客戶驅動的事件。客戶希望簽署這些合同,並對我們的資源、位置、激勵速度以及我們開展業務的條款感到滿意。

  • So it isn't just up to our company to just move quickly. It's up to our company to be responsive to customer needs, and we need to work through the necessary filings and the studies to make that happen.

    因此,我們公司不僅需要迅速採取行動。我們公司有責任回應客戶的需求,我們需要完成必要的備案和研究才能實現這一目標。

  • But if the customer pull is there, I think Vistra is going to be right there with any of the other parties to be able to meet this need. But I also think the regulators are doing the job they need to do, which is ask questions.

    但如果客戶的吸引力存在,我認為瑞致達將與其他任何一方一起滿足這項需求。但我也認為監管機構正在做他們需要做的工作,那就是提出問題。

  • And I think the response that's been provided in the amended ISA has answered those questions, and we're optimistic that, that will get approved. But this is not simply up to Vistra in terms of how fast Vistra wants to move. There are real customers here with real resources that they're committing just like we'll be committing and those conversations take time.

    我認為修訂後的 ISA 中提供的答案已經回答了這些問題,我們樂觀地認為這將獲得批准。但這不僅取決於瑞致達想要採取多快的行動。這裡有真正的客戶,擁有真正的資源,他們正在承諾,就像我們將承諾的那樣,這些對話需要時間。

  • These are complicated deals, and they're valuable for all of us. But we hear your question. I just think that it's not just a one-way direction for Vistra to control. I think this is something that we need to work together to get it done on the right time frame.

    這些都是複雜的交易,但對我們所有人來說都很有價值。但我們聽到了你的問題。我只是認為這不只是瑞致達可以控制的單向方向。我認為這是我們需要共同努力才能在正確的時間範圍內完成的事情。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • Okay. And the last one, you mentioned both behind the meter and in front of the meter co-location. Do you have any preference? I mean, it almost feels like in front of the meter co-location would have addressed some of the concerns raised in [Talon's] ISA?

    好的。最後一個,您提到了表後和表前的共置。你有什麼偏好嗎?我的意思是,感覺好像在儀表前並置可以解決 [Talon 的] ISA 中提出的一些問題?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, absolutely. I think, first of all, I think there's going to be both. There is the frustration, I think, that comes into this discussion at times from players is everybody views these as one or the other. There's so much low growth, and if you follow what folks are looking at, not only for data centers, but other sources of electrification and reindustrialization. There's going to be a lot -- the vast majority will be front of the meter.

    是的,絕對是。我認為,首先,我認為兩者都會有。我認為,玩家有時會在討論中感到沮喪,因為每個人都將這些視為其中之一。成長如此之低,如果你關注人們的關注點,不僅是資料中心,還有其他電氣化和再工業化來源。將會有很多——絕大多數將在儀表前。

  • There's just no way to meet all of these needs behind the meter. So we view that as load growth in either way, and that is going to help supply demand kind of fundamentals.

    沒有辦法滿足電錶後面的所有這些需求。因此,我們認為,無論哪種方式,負載成長都會有助於供應需求的基本面。

  • The behind the meter piece is just a unique opportunity really for us to co-locate much like other large customers have done for the last 20 years, and we can provide a speed to market advantage because there should not be the same level of resources needed to build out on the transmission side simply from a time frame perspective, where if we've got the land and the ability to provide them the reliable product that they're looking for, we should be able to contract and earn a margin for doing so.

    儀表後面的部分對我們來說確實是一個獨特的機會,可以像其他大客戶在過去20 年所做的那樣進行同地合作,並且我們可以提供快速進入市場的優勢,因為所需的資源水平不應該相同簡單地從時間框架的角度來看,在傳輸方面進行建設,如果我們擁有土地並且有能力為他們提供他們正在尋找的可靠產品,我們應該能夠簽訂合同並賺取利潤所以。

  • So I think both of those are valuable opportunities, Angie, and we're pursuing both with our customers.

    所以我認為這兩個都是寶貴的機會,安吉,我們正在與客戶一起追求這兩個機會。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Angie.

    謝謝安吉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

    大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning and thanks. Could you give an update on your latest views on new build in ERCOT, how that's going to shake out? How much could we see as we think about this TEF, the final proposals there? And in your view, are prices high enough when you look at the curve to really justify the economics of new build?

    嘿,早上好,謝謝。您能否介紹一下您對 ERCOT 新建專案的最新看法?當我們思考這個 TEF(最終提案)時,我們能看到多少?在您看來,當您查看曲線時,價格是否足夠高以真正證明新建築的經濟合理性?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • David, great question. So a couple of things there. I do think the curve is coming off in the last couple of months, just starting there in and of itself is a different view than where we were even sitting in the first week of May. And so if you just simply look at the curves, these projects are challenged. And I think we're a long -- a net long generator as a company.

    大衛,好問題。有幾件事。我確實認為曲線在過去幾個月正在下降,從那裡開始本身就是一個與我們五月第一周不同的觀點。因此,如果你只看曲線,這些專案就會面臨挑戰。我認為我們是一家做多的公司,是一家淨做多的公司。

  • We have a lot more generation length than we serve retail load. So if we only were looking at the curve and the curve is not that liquid, so you can't overreact to the curves in early May and you can't overreact to the curves here in early August. But on a curve-only basis, the Texas market is a different investment construct than other markets in the country. And I think the legislature recognized that.

    我們的發電長度比我們服務的零售負載要長得多。因此,如果我們只看曲線,而曲線並不是那麼流動,那麼你就不能對五月初的曲線反應過度,也不能對八月初的曲線反應過度。但僅從曲線的角度來看,德州市場的投資結構與該國其他市場不同。我認為立法機關認識到了這一點。

  • That's why they pass the test, and then the Sunset Bill last session, they also put in a couple of other things to work on some reliability reserve service, which is a new ancillary, and they also codified the performance credit mechanism.

    這就是為什麼他們通過了測試,然後在上屆會議的日落法案中,他們還投入了一些其他的東西來開發一些可靠性儲備服務,這是一個新的輔助手段,他們還編寫了績效信用機制。

  • So in our view, what the Texas legislature did, would say we need to provide some low-cost financing to encourage gas plants to be built. And that has a maximum of 10,000 megawatts. So regardless of how many had notification of interest and how many are in the application process, the max is 10,000 megawatts. That was expected to have $10 billion of funding to back it. And right now, they have funded $5 billion.

    因此,在我們看來,德州立法機構的做法是,我們需要提供一些低成本融資來鼓勵天然氣工廠的建設。最大功率為 10,000 兆瓦。因此,無論有多少已收到意向通知以及有多少個正在申請過程中,最大值均為 10,000 兆瓦。預計將有 100 億美元的資金支持。目前,他們已經資助了 50 億美元。

  • But it's likely the additional $5 billion could come before the next session or during the next session, to fully fund up to the 10,000 megawatts. Our view is that low-cost financing and some completion bonuses alone would not make these projects justifiable. The lower cost of financing is helpful, but you still need adequate revenue to be able to make these projects work. So the market reforms we believe are very important part of the overall package.

    但額外的 50 億美元可能會在下屆會議之前或下屆會議期間到位,為 10,000 兆瓦提供全額資金。我們的觀點是,僅靠低成本融資和一些完成獎金並不能使這些項目合理。較低的融資成本很有幫助,但您仍然需要足夠的收入才能使這些項目發揮作用。因此,我們認為市場改革是整個計畫中非常重要的一部分。

  • And when we made our announcement in May about the 2,000 megawatts, we're comfortable proceeding with the augmentation, we're comfortable proceeding with the conversion of Coleto, and we don't have any test requests for that, and we expect, given the economics of those, those would move forward.

    當我們在 5 月宣布 2,000 兆瓦時,我們很樂意繼續進行增強,我們很樂意繼續進行 Coleto 的轉換,並且我們沒有任何對此的測試請求,我們預計,考慮到那些的經濟性,那些將會向前發展。

  • However, we did file for TEF for the two new peakers, and we think that TEF loan is, again, helpful, but we also still need to see the revenue construct that the market reforms are intended to help address. We don't know how those are going to ultimately shake out because there's been so much interest in the TEF that I think some folks believe that maybe that's enough to address the concerns around grid reliability in Texas. We're not sure how much of the TEF generation ultimately gets built, I think it's too early to tell.

    然而,我們確實為兩個新的高峰申請了 TEF,我們認為 TEF 貸款再次有幫助,但我們仍然需要看到市場改革旨在幫助解決的收入結構。我們不知道這些最終將如何解決,因為人們對 TEF 非常感興趣,我認為有些人認為這可能足以解決德克薩斯州電網可靠性的擔憂。我們不確定 TEF 世代最終會建成多少,我認為現在下結論還為時過早。

  • But for the long term, not only to incentivize the right reliable reliability assets, but also to preserve the reliability assets that are currently on the grid, some of which are aging to quite long lives, 40, 50 years plus, there needs to be some revenue signals.

    但從長遠來看,不僅要激勵正確的可靠可靠性資產,而且要保護目前電網上的可靠性資產,其中一些資產已經老化到相當長的壽命,40年、50年以上,需要一些收入訊號。

  • Not all stakeholders in agreement on that. The advocacy from the large industrials and commercial customer base is very price sensitive, very cost sensitive. This is a market that values low energy prices. So I don't know how the stakeholder process will ultimately work out.

    並非所有利害關係人都同意這一點。來自廣大工商客戶群的倡導,對價格非常敏感,對成本非常敏感。這是一個重視低能源價格的市場。所以我不知道利害關係人流程最終會如何進行。

  • We're going to monitor that from here, and we're very active in it, and we'll see how it develops throughout the session. But I think it's too early to tell how all of this is going to come to fruition, especially if some of the market reform aspects are not supported through the end of the process, consistent with the Sunset Bill in SV3.

    我們將從這裡監控這一情況,我們對此非常積極,我們將看到它在整個會議期間如何發展。但我認為現在判斷這一切將如何實現還為時過早,特別是如果市場改革的某些方面在整個過程中沒有得到支持,這與 SV3 中的日落法案一致。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful. Thanks for all the color. I'll leave it there.

    知道了。非常有幫助。感謝所有的顏色。我會把它留在那裡。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, David.

    謝謝你,大衛。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.

    史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Yes, hi. Good morning. Just to maybe follow up on that last question on the TEF, could you give us a better sense of like when the go/no-go decision might need to be made by you and others through this process for whatever the curves? Yes, when do you have to make a decision really?

    是的,嗨。早安.只是為了跟進 TEF 的最後一個問題,您能否讓我們更好地了解什麼時候您和其他人可能需要透過這個過程做出通過/不通過的決定,無論曲線如何?是的,你什麼時候必須真正做出決定?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • So at the end of August, we expect to hear who's been selected from a due diligence perspective to move forward with the TEF process. So on the loan and bonus program, Steve, I think all market participants will hear by the end of August, whether they make it to the next round.

    因此,在 8 月底,我們預計會聽到從盡職調查的角度選擇誰來推進 TEF 流程。因此,關於貸款和獎金計劃,史蒂夫,我認為所有市場參與者都會在八月底聽到他們是否能進入下一輪的消息。

  • And then the due diligence process can take time. And ultimately, there will be an award made for the loans, and we'll have to see from a time frame perspective, how quickly those monies will be made available. I believe they need to be dispersed.

    然後盡職調查過程可能需要時間。最終,將會對貸款進行獎勵,我們必須從時間框架的角度來看,這些資金將多快到位。我認為他們需要被驅散。

  • I'm going to look to [Stacy] real quick, by late 2025. And our time frame, Steve, in terms of our decision making is that we have engineering work, we have site work, we have the interconnect process we're working through.

    我將在 2025 年底之前盡快聯繫 [Stacy]。

  • We anticipate a go/no-go decision on some of these on the peakers to line up probably closer to early next summer. And then we'll have a lot more information at that point in time. But that's the time line as we see it.

    我們預計,對其中一些高峰期的決定可能會在明夏初左右做出。然後我們會及時獲得更多資訊。但這就是我們所看到的時間線。

  • And obviously, we expect to learn more, and we'll be active in the market and the stakeholder process between now and then.

    顯然,我們希望了解更多信息,並且從現在到那時我們將積極參與市場和利益相關者流程。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then a couple, I guess, maybe numbers questions. Thank you for that disclosure of the $400 million that you would have had from nuclear PTC in 2024, roughly, if you included it. You then say for '25 that it would provide downside support.

    這很有幫助。我想,接下來可能會有一些數字問題。感謝您披露了 2024 年您將從核 PTC 獲得的大約 4 億美元(如果您將其計算在內)。然後您說 25 年它將提供下行支撐。

  • Does that mean that on average right now for '25 you are above the PTC floor, or are you just trying to kind of -- you're not really, you're just saying that because you're not quantifying it yet? Just could you give more color on that?

    這是否意味著現在 25 歲的平均水平高於 PTC 底線,或者您只是想——您不是真的,您只是這麼說,因為您還沒有量化它?你能給更多的顏色嗎?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Steve, your question depends on which week we're talking about. Literally, we're right at that PTC floor, and then as of August 5, we're right below the PTC floor. So I think the way we can obviously change our annual views day-to-day, week-to-week like this.

    當然。史蒂夫,你的問題取決於我們談論的是哪一周。從字面上看,我們正處於 PTC 底線,然後截至 8 月 5 日,我們就在 PTC 底線之下。所以我認為我們可以像這樣日復一日、週復一周地明顯改變我們的年度觀點。

  • But our communication in that range was we merely wanted to reflect the capacity revenue flow through so that you could see that it's not needed to cover some other underlying softness in our business.

    但我們在該範圍內的溝通只是想反映容量收入流,以便您可以看到它不需要涵蓋我們業務中的其他一些潛在弱點。

  • We feel strongly about '25 as we did before, and we're adding the $200 million for the capacity revenues. The downside protection comes in, and if curves stayed exactly where they are, maybe we get a little bit more PTC upside.

    和之前一樣,我們對「25」的感受很強烈,我們增加了 2 億美元的容量收入。下行保護出現了,如果曲線完全保持在原來的位置,也許我們會得到更多的 PTC 上行空間。

  • But certainly, if curves came off, you would get a lot more PTC protection. And that's really what we're communicating for 2025. Not only have we raised the range, but we feel the PTC provides some downside protection that's valuable.

    但當然,如果曲線脫落,您將獲得更多的 PTC 保護。這確實是我們在 2025 年傳達的內容。

  • You're going to see it in our '24 results, if the regs come out the way we think they are, we're giving you that $400 million number over and above the upper end of the range that we're communicating for 2024. So that's how it works. It isn't always an in-the-money tool, but it certainly provides the downside protection that should give our investors some comfort.

    您將在我們 24 年的結果中看到這一點,如果法規按照我們認為的方式出現,我們將為您提供 4 億美元的數字,超出我們為 2024 年溝通的範圍的上限就是這樣。它並不總是一種價內工具,但它確實提供了下行保護,應該會給我們的投資者帶來一些安慰。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Okay. And then one last question. Just on the upside from the PJM auction in '25, the $200 million increase. That seems somewhat less than we would have calculated just based on the actual auction outcome. Could you just talk to maybe some of the offsets that might be in there?

    好的。最後一個問題。與 25 年 PJM 拍賣相比,上漲了 2 億美元。這似乎比我們僅根據實際拍賣結果計算的要少一些。您能談談其中可能存在的一些偏移量嗎?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So when we look at putting out our numbers for 2025, that we had already disclosed last quarter, we had a revenue assumption on an auction clear embedded in that than half, Steve, what the auction clear turned out to be. So we've already have a starting point in the 2025 numbers.

    是的。因此,當我們公佈 2025 年的數據時,我們已經在上個季度披露了這一數字,我們對拍賣清算的收入假設嵌入了其中一半以上,史蒂夫,拍賣清算的結果是什麼。所以我們已經有了 2025 年數字的起點。

  • And then if you look at how our business works, particularly in the retail piece on residential, we do some forward sale of not only energy, but capacity. So those are not as long dated of the deal, particularly in the residential space, but you have some of that, which effectively is a fixed price commitment for customers.

    然後,如果你看看我們的業務是如何運作的,特別是在住宅零售方面,我們不僅會進行能源的遠期銷售,還會進行容量的遠期銷售。因此,這些交易的日期並不長,特別是在住宅領域,但你有一些,這實際上是對客戶的固定價格承諾。

  • So you wouldn't expect that to pass through at the full value. Some of the commercial industrial contracts would pass through. But on residential, it is not typical to be passing through the capacity piece. So when you see the $200 million, obviously, that six months of the planning period, and then, of course, there's 2026 benefit as well.

    所以你不會期望它能以全部價值傳遞。一些商業工業合約將獲得通過。但在住宅中,穿過容量塊的情況並不常見。因此,當你看到 2 億美元時,顯然是六個月的規劃期,當然,還有 2026 年的收益。

  • By the time you get to the 2026, 2027 auction, there's even less retail that would have forward sold capacity. So you would see even more flow through at these levels of clear as you move forward.

    到 2026 年、2027 年拍賣時,具有遠期銷售能力的零售店就更少了。因此,當您繼續前進時,您會在這些清晰的級別上看到更多的流量。

  • Steve Fleishman - Analyst

    Steve Fleishman - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

    杜爾格甚喬普拉 (Durgesh Chopra),Evercore ISI。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Hey team, good morning. Jim, I hate to put you on the spot. But the burning question every time we talk to you on earnings is is when are you going to sign a data center co-location opportunity? This has been asked to you before several times, but just any more color you can share on timing? I understand there's a lot of moving pieces this trying to understand whether we can see something this year? Or how are you thinking about potential announcement and timing there?

    嘿,團隊,早安。吉姆,我不想讓你為難。但每次我們與您討論收益問題時,最迫切的問題是您何時會簽署資料中心託管機會?之前已經多次向您詢問過這個問題,但是您可以在時間上分享更多顏色嗎?我知道有很多令人感動的事情試圖了解我們今年是否能看到一些東西?或者您如何考慮那裡的潛在公告和時間安排?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Durgesh, it is a hard question to answer, and I don't mind being put on the spot. I can only answer the question the best I can, which is, these are large, complicated deals, and they do depend on not only our desire to get one done, but the customers' comfort with getting these deals done.

    是的。 Durgesh,這是一個很難回答的問題,我不介意被置於困境。我只能盡力回答這個問題,即這些都是大型、複雜的交易,它們不僅取決於我們完成交易的願望,還取決於客戶對完成這些交易的舒適度。

  • I do think some of the details we're working through are extremely well. We have strong engagement and due diligence processes, but we know that they're having conversations with multiple parties, not just Vistra. So there's a lot of work in the industry, from a power generation as well as the hyperscalers and co-locators.

    我確實認為我們正在解決的一些細節非常好。我們擁有強而有力的參與和盡職調查流程,但我們知道他們正在與多方進行對話,而不僅僅是瑞致達。因此,該行業有很多工作要做,包括發電、超大規模建設者和託管者。

  • And I do think that there's going to be a process of the funnel working its way down to realistic options. For example, with the questions being raised in the PJM environment regarding the amended ISA, well, ERCOT does not have that same jurisdiction. So there's a Comanche Peak on a relative value perspective step up in the process, and we're seeing some interest in Comanche Peak, and even as these discussions with PJM have started to become more public on that amended ISA.

    我確實認為,將會有一個漏斗的過程,逐步形成現實的選擇。例如,對於 PJM 環境中提出的有關修訂後的 ISA 的問題,ERCOT 不具有相同的管轄權。因此,在這過程中,從相對價值角度來看,科曼奇峰有所進展,我們看到了對科曼奇峰的一些興趣,即使與 PJM 的討論已經開始更加公開地討論修訂後的 ISA。

  • So, Durgesh, it's a dynamic market. It's about the best thing I can say to that, and we're moving as fast as we can, but it does take the customer side to be comfortable with this.

    所以,Durgesh,這是一個充滿活力的市場。這是我能說的最好的事情,我們正在盡可能快地採取行動,但這確實需要客戶方對此感到滿意。

  • As I mentioned, these are very large, complicated deals. So our fundamentals of our business, Durgesh, they don't depend on doing a lot of data center deals. I think the supply-demand fundamentals that we've talked about, they're there, whether they're in front of the meter or behind the meter, it's just a unique opportunity for a company like ours with so many sites and so many opportunities to partner directly with customers, it is upside.

    正如我所提到的,這些都是非常龐大、複雜的交易。所以我們的業務基礎,Durgesh,它們並不依賴於進行大量的資料中心交易。我認為我們已經討論過的供需基本面,它們就在那裡,無論是在電錶前面還是電錶後面,對於像我們這樣擁有如此多站點和如此多信息的公司來說,這只是一個獨特的機會直接與客戶合作的機會,這是有好處的。

  • And we have not baked that into our forecast and our views. But I can tell you, we're a competitive bunch and that our team is working as hard as we can to get to a deal.

    我們還沒有將其納入我們的預測和觀點中。但我可以告訴你,我們是一支有競爭力的團隊,我們的團隊正在盡最大努力達成交易。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you for sharing that color. My second question is that just as there's a lot of chatter around a hard landing scenario here, a bad recession, what does that mean? I know the long-term power supply demand dynamic is a major tailwind for you. But what does that mean near-term implications on power prices and then for your business?

    偉大的。感謝您分享這種顏色。我的第二個問題是,正如這裡有很多關於硬著陸情景、嚴重衰退的討論,這意味著什麼?我知道長期的電力供應需求動態對您來說是一個主要的推動力。但這對電價以及您的業務的近期影響意味著什麼呢?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • We've been through some economic shocks a number of times in our 24 years as kind of a competitive company. Obviously, the near term, and when I say near term, the next two to three years, we feel really strong about our ability to generate consistent returns.

    作為一家有競爭力的公司,我們在 24 年來多次經歷過經濟衝擊。顯然,在近期,當我說近期,未來兩到三年,我們對產生持續回報的能力感到非常強大。

  • But as you move out into 2027 and beyond, our business is going to be more open to the macroeconomic environment. That's not only power price and natural gas price levels, but also just the customer demand. Is the demand there.

    但隨著進入 2027 年及以後,我們的業務將對宏觀經濟環境更加開放。這不僅是電價和天然氣價格水平,還包括客戶需求。那裡有需求嗎?

  • We have a very healthy baseload business and a very healthy residential business that tend to be pretty recession proof, and most of our business that's commercial and industrial, we don't have contracts where we're taking sort of the swing or the load risk in that. We tend to sell more take-or-pay or fixed quantity type products to those customers.

    我們擁有非常健康的基本負載業務和非常健康的住宅業務,這些業務往往能夠抵禦經濟衰退,而且我們的大部分業務都是商業和工業業務,我們沒有需要承擔波動或負載風險的合同在那裡。我們傾向於向這些客戶銷售更多照付或固定數量類型的產品。

  • So I think our business is set up well, Durgesh. I think it's a business that has shown that even when things get soft, we're able to back down some of our units, buyback hedges in the marketplace cost effectively, refer to margin, whether we're generating or whether we back down.

    所以我認為我們的業務發展得很好,Durgesh。我認為這家企業已經表明,即使情況變得疲軟,我們也能夠削減我們的一些單位,在市場上以成本有效的方式回購對沖,參考利潤率,無論我們是發電還是削減。

  • So I think we've proven the resiliency in the business model, but certainly, long term, it make you think about your capital allocation and your investment, if you really thought we were at a prolonged sort of downturn. But that is not -- that's not anything we'll worry about in this near-term planning horizon.

    因此,我認為我們已經證明了商業模式的彈性,但從長遠來看,如果您真的認為我們處於長期低迷狀態,它會讓您考慮您的資本配置和投資。但事實並非如此——這不是我們在近期規劃範圍內擔心的事情。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Thank you. I appreciate the discussion.

    謝謝。我很欣賞這次討論。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Durgesh.

    謝謝,杜爾吉什。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯,杰弗里斯。

  • Antoine Aurimond - Analyst

    Antoine Aurimond - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. It's actually Antoine for Julien. So to follow up on the data center side, I know you haven't signed anything yet. But maybe can you comment on how the discussion on pricing for these potential contracts has evolved since you started evaluating contracts with data center providers?

    嗨,大家好。實際上是朱利安的安托萬。因此,為了跟進資料中心方面,我知道您還沒有簽署任何內容。但也許您可以評論一下自從您開始評估與資料中心提供者的合約以來,這些潛在合約的定價討論是如何演變的?

  • Like the value of reliable baseload capacity is getting more and more recognized. You just had the PJM capacity auction. How do you see pricing trending? And how does that play into your level of comfort into signing a long-term deal?

    就像可靠的基本負載容量的價值越來越受到認可。您剛剛進行了 PJM 產能拍賣。您如何看待定價趨勢?這對您簽署長期協議的舒適程度有何影響?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, we are a competitive company and pricing is a sensitive topic to be discussing on our earnings call. But I would say that the customers that we are engaged with understand the value of -- particularly on the nuclear units -- they understand the value of the carbon-free attribute.

    是的。嗯,我們是一家有競爭力的公司,定價是我們在財報電話會議上討論的敏感話題。但我想說的是,與我們合作的客戶了解無碳屬性的價值,尤其是核機組的價值。

  • They understand the value of reliability. They understand the potential speed to market benefit and they're willing to pay for that. I mean, again, you're in a competitive process. So other people are offering that, that have similar resources to Vistra.

    他們了解可靠性的價值。他們了解潛在的市場效益速度,並且願意為此付出代價。我的意思是,你再次處於競爭過程中。所以其他人也提供這種服務,他們擁有與瑞致達類似的資源。

  • So this is, again, a buyer and a seller needing to reach agreement on what that value is. But we are having those conversations, and I think those are moving along well.

    因此,買家和賣家需要就該價值達成一致。但我們正在進行這些對話,而且我認為進展順利。

  • Ultimately, there's more auctions than just the nuclear fleet. The gas fleet is also part of the conversation, and they provide other benefits for customers. They wouldn't necessarily be paying the same premium for the carbon-free attribute, but obviously, the gas assets provide reliability.

    最終,拍賣的不僅是核艦隊。天然氣車隊也是討論的一部分,它們為客戶提供其他好處。他們不一定會為無碳屬性支付相同的溢價,但顯然,天然氣資產提供了可靠性。

  • They provide the opportunity to potentially be grid connected in some cases and use the renewables that are on the grid to optimize price for the customer. So there's a lot of variables to this that are going to be deal and customer-specific.

    它們提供了在某些情況下可能併網的機會,並使用電網上的可再生能源來優化客戶的價格。因此,這存在許多因交易和客戶而異的變數。

  • But the capacity clear was noted. I think that's something that a customer, whether front of the meter or behind the meter, they're going to be looking at these kind of capacity clears as something that load is going to need to pay.

    但容量明顯被注意到。我認為,無論是在電錶前還是電錶後,客戶都會將這種容量清除視為負載所需支付的費用。

  • And so I do think that it was a little bit more unclear before this last auction, that the auction revenues might actually be more than what they've been in previous auctions. I think this auction and the parameter shaping up for this December show that there is actually a need for more supply in PJM. And so we'd expect the clears to stay at that level or higher, and we know that customers are savvy and they see this coming from a power cost perspective.

    因此,我確實認為,在最後一次拍賣之前,情況還不清楚,拍賣收入實際上可能比之前的拍賣要多。我認為這次拍賣和今年 12 月的參數表明 PJM 實際上需要更多的供應。因此,我們預計清除率將保持在該水平或更高,我們知道客戶很精明,他們從電力成本的角度看待這一點。

  • Antoine Aurimond - Analyst

    Antoine Aurimond - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And then lastly, we've been talking a lot about new builds, but these take time to come online. How do you think about buying existing assets? Do you see any opportunities out there? How wide the sort of bid-ask spread has been today?

    知道了。謝謝。最後,我們一直在談論新版本,但這些版本需要時間才能上線。您如何看待購買現有資產?您看到那裡有什麼機會嗎?今天的買賣價差有多大?

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We have actually grown our business considerably through acquisition. And I think the history of the IPP sector, unfortunately, has been that brand-new assets usually end up trading at a discount. In many cases, the IPPs themselves have not stayed financially solvent and folks have picked up those assets much more cheaply in the aftermath.

    是的。實際上,透過收購,我們的業務已大幅成長。不幸的是,我認為獨立發電廠產業的歷史是,全新資產通常最終會以折扣價進行交易。在許多情況下,獨立發電廠本身並沒有維持財務償付能力,人們在事後以更便宜的價格購買了這些資產。

  • And so you see that even with a recent sale that was announced of a competitive fleet, largely PJM, where those assets are receiving a value that one could argue is still $0.50, $0.60 on the dollar for new build.

    因此,您會看到,即使最近宣佈出售一支有競爭力的機隊(主要是 PJM),這些資產的價值仍然可以說是 0.50 美元,新建的資產為 0.60 美元。

  • And I think that's the challenge with when people look at ERCOT forward curves and we talk to partners about an offtake agreement on a gas plant, for instance, they might look at the forward curves and say, it's still cheaper to be leaning on the market and buying on the market than paying for a brand-new asset with a return requirement.

    我認為這就是當人們查看 ERCOT 遠期曲線並且我們與合作夥伴討論天然氣工廠的承購協議時所面臨的挑戰,例如,他們可能會查看遠期曲線並說,依靠市場仍然更便宜在市場上購買,而不是支付有回報要求的全新資產。

  • That's true whether that's a regulated asset in a market or that's true, whether it's in a competitive market. So I think we have shown an ability to pick up assets and integrate them and earn the synergies, and we're still open to doing that. There are more assets coming to the market.

    無論它是市場中的受監管資產還是競爭市場中的資產,這都是事實。因此,我認為我們已經表現出了獲取資產並整合它們並獲得協同效應的能力,並且我們仍然願意這樣做。有更多資產進入市場。

  • I think people have seen the value of these gas assets have improved, but they haven't improved to the level that it costs to do new build. And that gap is not closed meaningfully.

    我認為人們已經看到這些天然氣資產的價值有所提高,但尚未提高到新建成本的水平。而這個差距並沒有有意義地縮小。

  • And so yes, we will be active. We always were active in looking at opportunities. But we'll be looking to see if those two things converge down the road. But right now, there is still a delta.

    所以,是的,我們會積極行動。我們始終積極尋找機會。但我們將看看這兩件事是否會在未來融合。但現在,仍然存在一個三角洲。

  • Antoine Aurimond - Analyst

    Antoine Aurimond - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回吉姆·伯克(Jim Burke)發表閉幕詞。

  • James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Burke - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I just want to thank everyone for joining. I want to thank our team for their continued execution and service to our customers and our communities. We appreciate your interest in Vistra, and we'll continue to work hard to power through the summer months here, and deliver on our strategic priorities, and we hope to see you in person soon.

    是的。我只想感謝大家的加入。我要感謝我們的團隊對我們的客戶和社區的持續執行和服務。我們感謝您對瑞致達的興趣,我們將繼續努力工作,度過夏季,並實現我們的策略重點,我們希望很快能見到您。

  • So have a nice end of your summer, and we'll talk to you again on our next quarter call in November. Thanks.

    祝您度過一個愉快的夏天,我們將在 11 月的下一個季度電話會議上再次與您交談。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。