Vistra Corp (VST) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Vistra's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加瑞致達 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

And now I would like to take the conference to Eric Micek. Please go ahead.

現在我想請艾瑞克·米塞克主持會議。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and the earnings release.

早安，感謝大家參加瑞致達的投資者網路廣播，討論我們的第四季和 2023 年全年業績。我們今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。在那裡，您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra's senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天的電話會議由瑞致達總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke) 主持。以及瑞致達執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。瑞致達其他高階主管將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。瑞致達網站投資者關係部分的收益報告和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報幻燈片2 中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非GAAP 財務數據的使用措施。

I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke)。

Thank you, Eric. I appreciate all of you taking the time to join our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. First, I am proud to share the very strong results that the hard-working Vistra team delivered in 2023. And second, I am excited to announce that we expect to close the Energy Harbor acquisition on Friday, March 1.

謝謝你，埃里克。感謝大家抽出寶貴時間參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。首先，我很自豪地分享辛勤工作的瑞致達團隊在 2023 年取得的非常強勁的成果。其次，我很高興地宣布，我們預計將於 3 月 1 日星期五完成對 Energy Harbor 的收購。

The Energy Harbor acquisition fits squarely with our continued focus on our 4 strategic priorities as laid out on Slide 5, which starts with operating an integrated business model that combines retail and wholesale operations, leading to more resilient and sustainable earnings and a variety of weather and pricing environments. This was not only true in delivering results $440 million above our original guidance level in 2023, but was recently apparent during Winter Storm Heather in January of this year, where our core competency of operating generation assets was evidenced by our 98% commercial availability, which is particularly impressive in an environment where the ERCOT overall market outage rate for the 5 days impacted by the storm was 2.5x Vistra's outage rate.

Energy Harbor 的收購完全符合我們對幻燈片5 中列出的4 個戰略重點的持續關注，該戰略重點首先是運營結合零售和批發業務的綜合業務模式，從而帶來更具彈性和可持續的收益以及各種天氣和定價環境。這不僅體現在2023 年實現的業績比我們最初的指導水準高出4.4 億美元，而且在今年1 月的冬季風暴Heather 期間也表現得很明顯，我們98% 的商業可用性證明了我們營運發電資產的核心能力，證明了我們營運發電資產的核心能力。在受風暴影響的 5 天裡，ERCOT 整體市場中斷率是瑞致達中斷率的 2.5 倍的環境下，這一點尤其令人印象深刻。

Turning to the other key priorities. We continue to execute on our capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021. Since that time, we have returned to our investors approximately $4.3 billion through share repurchases and dividends. Further, we are excited to announce the Board approval of an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases, which we expect to fully utilize by year-end 2025. Importantly, we have strengthened and simplified our balance sheet while maintaining our capital return plan. Net leverage remains low at 2.4x, and although we expect to be slightly above our 3x net leverage target when Energy Harbor closes, we project to return to below 3x by year-end 2024.

轉向其他關鍵優先事項。我們繼續執行 2021 年第四季實施的資本回報計畫。自那時以來，我們透過股票回購和股息向投資者返還了約 43 億美元。此外，我們很高興地宣布董事會批准額外15 億美元的股票回購，我們預計將在2025 年底之前充分利用這些資金。重要的是，我們在維持資本回報計劃的同時加強和簡化了我們的資產負債表。淨槓桿率仍處於 2.4 倍的低水平，儘管我們預計能源港關閉時淨槓桿率將略高於 3 倍的目標，但我們預計到 2024 年底將恢復到 3 倍以下。

The successful repurchase of approximately 98% of our outstanding tax receivable agreement rights marks further progress in our efforts to simplify Vistra's capital structure while improving our free cash flow conversion over the foreseeable planning horizon. Our disciplined capital approach also enables us to invest in renewables and energy storage growth that capitalizes on sites and interconnects in the Vistra portfolio. We delivered the Moss Landing 350-megawatt energy storage expansion in June of last year, and we began construction on 3 of our larger Illinois solar and energy storage developments located at our former coal plant sites in the spring of 2024.

成功回購約 98% 的未償還應收稅款協議權利，標誌著我們在簡化瑞致達資本結構、同時在可預見的規劃期內改善自由現金流轉換的努力取得了進一步進展。我們嚴格的資本方法也使我們能夠利用瑞致達投資組合中的站點和互連來投資再生能源和能源儲存成長。我們於去年 6 月交付了 Moss Landing 350 兆瓦儲能擴建項目，並於 2024 年春季開始在我們以前的燃煤電廠場地建設 3 個較大的伊利諾伊州太陽能和儲能開發項目。

With grids in most of our markets tightening in the coming years as older fossil generation retires, mode continues to grow and with interconnection and transmission challenges, Vistra is well positioned to continue to find ways to serve our customers reliably, affordably and sustainably while remaining disciplined about our capital allocation.

隨著老化石能源發電的退役，大多數市場的電網在未來幾年將趨緊，模式將繼續增長，並且面臨互聯和輸電挑戰，瑞致達處於有利地位，能夠繼續尋找方法為我們的客戶提供可靠、經濟和可持續的服務，同時保持紀律性關於我們的資本配置。

Turning to Slide 6. We received FERC's approval for both the acquisition of Energy Harbor and the corresponding sale of our Richland and Stryker generation facilities. Energy Harbor is a transformative acquisition and represents another significant step forward for our company. We are diligently working towards closing this transaction, which, as I already mentioned, we expect to close on March 1.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們獲得了 FERC 批准收購 Energy Harbor 以及相應出售 Richland 和 Stryker 發電設施。 Energy Harbor 是一次變革性的收購，代表我們公司又向前邁出了重要一步。我們正在努力完成這筆交易，正如我已經提到的，我們預計將於 3 月 1 日完成。

Despite closing later than we had hoped, we remain comfortable with our ability to successfully integrate our teams and deliver the initial guidance of pretax run rate synergies of $125 million by year-end 2025. We are also reiterating a 12-month 2024 and 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities from Energy Harbor of $700 million and $800 million, respectively, as well as the expected run rate ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity on an unhedged and open basis of $900 million. However, given the anticipated closing date, you can expect our updated 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance range, which we expect to provide on the first quarter 2024 results call will reflect only 10 months of contribution from Energy Harbor this year.

儘管交割時間比我們希望的要晚，但我們仍然對我們成功整合團隊並在2025 年底之前提供1.25 億美元稅前運行率協同效應的初步指導的能力感到滿意。我們也重申了2024 年和2025 年為期12 個月的持續進展來自能源港的營運調整後EBITDA 中點機會分別為7 億美元和8 億美元，以及在未對沖和開放的基礎上預期運行率持續運營調整後EBITDA 中點機會為9億美元。然而，考慮到預期的截止日期，您可以預期我們更新的2024 年持續營運調整後EBITDA 指導範圍（我們預計在2024 年第一季業績電話會議上提供）將僅反映Energy Harbor 今年10 個月的貢獻。

Moving now to Slide 7. As a reminder, we began the year with initial guidance for 2023 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA with a midpoint of $3.7 billion. This guidance was subsequently revised on both our second and third quarter calls, ultimately raised to a midpoint of $4,025 million. As I stated earlier, despite another year of volatile weather, characterized by mostly mild weather, excluding the unprecedented summer heat in ERCOT during the third quarter, we were able to exceed the midpoint of our original guidance range by $440 million. Importantly, this translated to higher-than-expected ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth of approximately $2,491 million, exceeding the midpoint of our original guidance range by $441 million. These results were achieved through strong customer count and margin performance at our retail segment and a nearly 96% commercial availability rate for our Generation segment.

現在轉到投影片 7。提醒一下，我們在年初制定了 2023 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的初步指導，中位數為 37 億美元。隨後我們在第二季和第三季的電話會議上對該指引進行了修訂，最終將中點提高至 40.25 億美元。正如我之前所說，儘管又是一年多變的天氣，主要是溫和的天氣，不包括第三季 ERCOT 前所未有的夏季高溫，但我們仍然超出了最初指導範圍的中點 4.4 億美元。重要的是，這意味著持續營運調整後自由現金流成長約 24.91 億美元，超出預期，超出我們最初指導範圍的中位數 4.41 億美元。這些成果是透過我們零售部門強大的客戶數量和利潤表現以及我們的發電部門近 96% 的商業可用率來取得的。

Now I'd like to quickly turn to the 2024 guidance. Given the recent regulatory approval and the upcoming transaction closing, we anticipate providing combined Vistra and Energy Harbor guidance, including an update on synergies as part of our first quarter 2024 results call. However, we can reaffirm the Vistra stand-alone 2024 guidance for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA in the range of $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth in the range of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion. We are eager and excited to join with the men and women of Energy Harbor and execute on behalf of our customers and communities as one team.

現在我想快速轉向 2024 年指導。鑑於最近的監管批准和即將完成的交易，我們預計將提供瑞致達和能源港的合併指導，包括作為 2024 年第一季業績電話會議的一部分的協同效應更新。然而，我們可以重申瑞致達2024 年獨立指引，持續經營業務調整後EBITDA 在37 億美元至41 億美元範圍內，持續經營業務調整後自由現金流在增長前在19 億美元至23 億美元範圍內。我們渴望並興奮地加入能源港的男女，並作為一個團隊代表我們的客戶和社區執行任務。

I'll now turn the call over to Kris to discuss our quarterly performance in more detail.

我現在將把電話轉給克里斯，更詳細地討論我們的季度業績。

Thank you, Jim. Turning to Slide 9. Vistra delivered strong fourth quarter results in 2023 with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of approximately $965 million, including $463 million from retail and $502 million from generation. For the year, Vistra delivered $4,140 million of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA, including $1,105 million from retail and $3,035 million from generation. Despite mild weather conditions for much of the year, the performance of our generation units combined with our comprehensive hedging program and our ability to optimize our flexible assets drove the significant year-over-year improvement in our generation results in every region in the country.

謝謝你，吉姆。轉向幻燈片 9。瑞致達在 2023 年第四季度取得了強勁的業績，持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 約為 9.65 億美元，其中包括 4.63 億美元來自零售業和 5.02 億美元來自發電業。今年，瑞致達實現了 41.4 億美元的持續營運調整後 EBITDA，其中 11.05 億美元來自零售業，30.35 億美元來自發電業。儘管全年大部分時間天氣條件溫和，但我們發電機組的表現加上我們全面的對沖計劃以及我們優化靈活資產的能力，推動了我們在全國各個地區的發電業績同比顯著改善。

Moving to the Retail segment. The strong margin performance seen in the first 9 months of the year continued in the fourth quarter. Positive residential customer count growth was driven by our multi-brand strategy with organic growth by our flagship brand, TXU Energy, for the third consecutive year.

轉向零售領域。今年前 9 個月的強勁利潤率表現在第四季度得到延續。住宅客戶數量的正面成長得益於我們的多品牌策略，以及我們的旗艦品牌 TXU Energy 連續第三年的有機成長。

Turning to Slide 10. We provide an update on the execution of our capital allocation plan. As of February 23, we executed approximately $3.7 billion of share repurchases, leading to an approximately 28% reduction compared to the number of shares that were outstanding in November of 2021. We expect to utilize $2.25 billion consisting of the $750 million remaining under the previous authorization as of the end of 2023 and the additional $1.5 billion of authorization announced today over the course of 2024 and 2025. We will review our capital available for allocation after we close the Energy Harbor acquisition and expect to share any updates later this year.

轉向投影片 10。我們提供了有關資本分配計畫執行的最新資訊。截至2 月23 日，我們執行了約37 億美元的股票回購，與2021 年11 月流通在外的股票數量相比減少了約28%。我們預計將利用22.5 億美元，其中包括上一交易中剩餘的7.5 億美元。截至2023 年底的授權以及今天宣布的2024 年和2025 年期間額外15 億美元的授權。我們將在完成能源港收購後審查可用於分配的資本，並預計在今年晚些時候分享任何更新。

Moving to our dividend program. We announced last week a fourth quarter 2023 common stock dividend of $0.215 per share, which represents an increase of approximately 9% over the dividend paid in Q1 2023 and an impressive 43% increase over the dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2021 when our capital allocation plan was first established.

轉向我們的股利計畫。我們上週宣布，2023 年第四季的普通股股息為每股0.215 美元，這比2023 年第一季支付的股息增加了約9%，比2021 年第四季支付的股息增加了43%，令人印象深刻。首次製定分配方案。

Turning to the balance sheet. Vistra's net leverage ratio currently sits significantly below 3x. As Jim stated earlier, although net debt will increase upon closing of the Energy Harbor acquisition, it will remain close to 3x, and we expect it to return to below 3x by the end of 2024.

轉向資產負債表。 Vistra 的淨槓桿率目前遠低於 3 倍。正如 Jim 之前所說，儘管能源港收購完成後淨債務將增加，但仍將接近 3 倍，我們預計到 2024 年底將恢復到 3 倍以下。

In addition to maintaining low leverage, we took an important step to further simplify the balance sheet at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. As of February 23, 2024, we have repurchased approximately 98% of the outstanding rights to receive payments under our tax receivable agreement. To pay for these rights, which were entitled to receive approximately $1.4 billion over time on an undiscounted basis. We paid approximately $625 million, consisting of approximately $475 million in aggregate face value of Series C perpetual preferred stock and approximately $150 million of cash.

除了保持低槓桿率外，我們在2023年底和2024年初採取了進一步簡化資產負債表的重要步驟。截至2024年2月23日，我們已回購了約98%的未償還權利，以根據我們的應收稅協議。為了支付這些權利，這些權利有權隨著時間的推移以不折現的方式獲得約 14 億美元。我們支付了約 6.25 億美元，其中包括面額總額約 4.75 億美元的 C 輪永久優先股和約 1.5 億美元的現金。

Based on our forecast of payments that would have been due under the tax receivable agreement over the foreseeable planning horizon, we believe this transaction results in accretion to free cash flow over that time period and provides robust net present value to the company.

根據我們對在可預見的規劃期內根據應收稅協議應付的付款的預測，我們相信這項交易會增加該時期的自由現金流，並為公司提供強勁的淨現值。

Finally, the team is preparing to begin construction activities at 3 of our larger Illinois solar and energy storage developments at our former coal plant sites this spring. We believe these projects will continue to exceed our targeted return thresholds despite some headwinds in this higher cost and interest rate environment. The 3 key tenets of our responsible energy transition, reliability, affordability and sustainability, will continue to guide our renewables development program. We remain disciplined in our approach and continue to benchmark all projects against other uses of capital, including our share repurchase program.

最後，團隊正準備在今年春天開始在伊利諾州的前燃煤電廠廠址上進行 3 個較大的太陽能和儲能開發案的建設活動。我們相信，儘管在成本和利率上升的環境中存在一些阻力，這些項目將繼續超過我們的目標回報門檻。我們負責任的能源轉型的三個關鍵原則：可靠性、可負擔性和永續性，將繼續指導我們的再生能源發展計畫。我們在方法上保持嚴格，並繼續將所有項目與其他資本用途（包括我們的股票回購計劃）進行比較。

Touching quickly on Slide 11. As we have done in prior quarters, we have provided an update on the out-year forward price curves as of February 23. While the ERCOT forward price curves continue to reflect some backwardation, the prices remain higher than the April 29, 2022, curves when we first spoke to you about increased EBITDA earnings potential in the out years. These curves, together with the continued execution of our comprehensive hedging program, give us confidence in the ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity for 2025 in the range of $3.8 billion to $4 billion for Vistra's stand-alone discussed last quarter. Again, we expect to update the 2025 opportunity, including the expected contribution from Energy Harbor on the first quarter results call.

快速觸及投影片11。正如我們在前幾季所做的那樣，我們提供了截至2 月23 日的年外遠期價格曲線的更新。雖然ERCOT 遠期價格曲線繼續反映一些現貨溢價，但價格仍高於2022 年 4 月 29 日，我們首次與您談論未來幾年 EBITDA 獲利潛力的成長曲線。這些曲線，加上我們全面對沖計劃的持續執行，使我們對上季度討論的瑞致達獨立公司 2025 年持續運營調整後 EBITDA 中點機會充滿信心，範圍為 38 億至 40 億美元。我們再次預計更新 2025 年機會，包括能源港在第一季業績電話會議上的預期貢獻。

We are extremely proud of the performance of our generation retail and commercial teams during 2023 and the start of 2024. We believe our commercial optimization activities and flexible generation assets combined with an industry-leading retail business provides significant opportunities going forward. We will continue to focus on being a reliable, cost-efficient operator of assets, while producing adjusted free cash flow yields that translate directly into significant returns for our stockholders.

我們對發電零售和商業團隊在 2023 年和 2024 年初的表現感到非常自豪。我們相信，我們的商業優化活動和靈活的發電資產與業界領先的零售業務相結合，為未來提供了重大機會。我們將繼續專注於成為可靠、具成本效益的資產營運商，同時產生調整後的自由現金流收益率，直接轉化為股東的可觀回報。

With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

接線員，我們就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, let's start with a question from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明） 現在，讓我們從古根漢合夥人公司的 Shar Pourreza 提出的問題開始。

Jim, sorry with that, the typical tech issues. I guess, Jim, you're getting closer to closing the Energy Harbor, you repurchased the TRAs to clean up the cap structure. Can we just get a little more color on how you're thinking about the longer-term profile of the business? I mean do you see a pathway for tradition and vision to go their separate ways in the years ahead? Or is this kind of a longer date process in your mind?

吉姆，抱歉，這是典型的技術問題。我想，吉姆，你離關閉能源港越來越近了，你重新買了 TRA 來清理上限結構。我們能否進一步了解您對公司長期發展的看法？我的意思是，您是否認為傳統和願景在未來幾年會分道揚鑣？或者你認為這是一個更長的日期過程？

Yes. Thank you, Shar. I'll let Kris address the TRA, but I'll start with the direction we're headed. I think the Energy Harbor acquisition, as we said, is transformative for the company. It obviously brings a dispatchable 24/7 carbon-free element to the portfolio, enhances our starting point that we had with Comanche Peak and Vistra Zero.

是的。謝謝你，莎爾。我會讓克里斯向 TRA 發表講話，但我會從我們前進的方向開始。正如我們所說，我認為能源港收購對公司來說是變革性的。顯然，它為產品組合帶來了可調度的 24/7 無碳元素，增強了我們與 Comanche Peak 和 Vistra Zero 的起點。

The other part of the portfolio that I think is incredibly critical is the dispatchable assets that we have with our fossil fleet. Flexibility is an increasingly valuable attribute on these grids, particularly with the renewables penetration that we're seeing across the country, particularly ERCOT in California. So from our standpoint, with such a large retail position and our growing retail position, the integration of how we can match the customer needs with assets that can provide the base load and the ramp products is an important part of risk management and value creation for our company.

我認為投資組合中極為重要的另一部分是我們在化石燃料船隊中擁有的可調度資產。靈活性是這些電網越來越有價值的屬性，特別是隨著我們在全國範圍內看到的可再生能源的滲透，特別是加州的 ERCOT。因此，從我們的角度來看，憑藉如此龐大的零售地位和不斷增長的零售地位，我們如何將客戶需求與能夠提供基本負載和坡道產品的資產相結合，是風險管理和價值創造的重要組成部分。我們公司。

So we see this still as one team. We see it as Vistra delivering on an integrated basis across our business for the long term. And I think this excitement we have around closing Energy Harbor is it's a path we've been on for quite some time with the other acquisitions we've done. This is yet another one that fits neatly into what customers are looking for. And that's why we're ready to get on to this next chapter.

所以我們認為這仍然是一個團隊。我們認為瑞致達在整個業務的長期整合基礎上提供服務。我認為我們對關閉能源港感到興奮是因為我們在相當長的一段時間裡一直在進行其他收購。這是又一個完全符合顧客需求的產品。這就是為什麼我們準備好進入下一章。

I'll let Kris quickly address the TRA.

我會讓 Kris 快速向 TRA 發表演說。

Yes, Shar, again, we noted in the comments. I think the primary purpose of the TRA, it does have some benefits that aren't economic related, but the primary purpose was economic. When you take an instrument out that is entitled to $1.4 billion, and then we did it with a little bit more than $600 million and more than 3/4 of that is perpetual stock, it's just -- it became a transaction that was very economically beneficial for the company. And so we really focused on the economics of it.

是的，莎爾，我們在評論中再次指出。我認為 TRA 的主要目的，它確實有一些與經濟無關的好處，但主要目的是經濟。當你拿出一個有權獲得14 億美元的工具，然後我們用略高於6 億美元的資金來做這件事，其中超過3/4 是永續股，它就成為了一項非常經濟的交易對公司有利。所以我們真正關注的是它的經濟效益。

As far as cleaning it up, it does simplify the capital structure. It's a topic that we're pleased to not talk much about going forward. But it still is just one of the impediments to a split. There are still other debt securities at the Vistra operations level, and we still have preferred stock in place. So there would be other things to address. So that wasn't the primary purpose for this transaction. It was really -- we thought it was a great economic benefit to the company, including a significant amount of NPV for us.

就清理而言，它確實簡化了資本結構。我們很高興不再談論這個話題。但這仍然只是分裂的障礙之一。瑞致達營運層面還有其他債務證券，我們仍擁有優先股。所以還有其他事情要解決。所以這不是這筆交易的主要目的。我們認為這確實為公司帶來了巨大的經濟效益，包括為我們帶來了大量的淨現值。

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. And then, Jim, just on ERCOT. We've seen a few new build announcements recently. It sounds like one of your peers is waiting for the loan program details before potentially pulling the trigger on a combined cycle. There has also been a substantial amount of noise regarding the ECRS. I guess what's your house view on supply/demand backdrop and sort of ongoing market reforms?

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。然後，Jim，就在 ERCOT 上。我們最近看到了一些新版本的公告。聽起來您的一位同行正在等待貸款計劃的詳細信息，然後才可能啟動聯合週期。關於 ECRS 也存在大量噪音。我想您對供需背景以及正在進行的市場改革有何看法？

Yes. Great question. Well, the demand growth surprised, I think many of us, both what we saw last summer and even with Heather. So robust, low growth in Texas coupled with extreme weather, you start to see the grid getting pushed, obviously, to a level of tightness, we haven't seen in quite some time. The loan program clearly was a signal from the legislature and policymakers that they would like to see the dispatchable resources grow in Texas at a minimum to backstop the level of growth that we see with intermittent resources in Texas. And we see like in winter storm Heather, on the tightest days of winter storm Heather about 5% during the hours that were the tightest. About 5% of the power coming, were coming from intermittent sources, about 95% from dispatchable.

是的。很好的問題。好吧，我想我們很多人都對需求成長感到驚訝，無論是我們去年夏天看到的，還是希瑟看到的。德州如此強勁的低成長加上極端天氣，你開始看到電網顯然被推到了我們很長一段時間沒有見過的緊張程度。貸款計劃顯然是立法機關和政策制定者發出的信號，表明他們希望看到德克薩斯州的可調度資源至少增長，以支持我們在德克薩斯州間歇性資源中看到的增長水平。我們看到，就像在冬季風暴希瑟中一樣，在冬季風暴希瑟最緊張的日子裡，在最緊張的時間內，大約有 5% 的降雨量減少。大約 5% 的電力來自間歇性電源，約 95% 來自可調度電源。

So I think the desire is there. The loan program is clearly a boost because the interest rate at 3%, that's better than where market is. But you raised another point that I think is critical, which is there's a series of market reforms that are contemplated at the moment that sit between ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission they generally are around the ancillaries. So ECRS is one. DRS is another. And there's details of these that are yet to be defined. We hope to hear more about ECRS here in a few months. It's likely that ECRS could actually dispatch a little earlier, could actually end up being brought into the market earlier than it was last summer, which could have a little bit of a dampening effect on prices.

所以我認為願望是存在的。貸款計劃顯然是一種提振，因為利率為 3%，比市場利率更好。但你提出了我認為至關重要的另一點，即目前正在考慮進行一系列市場改革，這些改革位於 ERCOT 和公用事業委員會之間，它們通常圍繞著輔助機構進行。 ECRS 就是其中之一。 DRS 是另一個。其中還有一些細節尚未確定。我們希望在幾個月內聽到更多有關 ECRS 的資訊。 ECRS 很可能實際上會提前一點，最終可能比去年夏天更早進入市場，這可能會對價格產生一點抑製作用。

The DRS is pushed out in time and it's unclear what kind of effect on price signals that might have. And then lastly, PCM, this performance credit mechanism, which is in the law, the House Bill 1500, that is also probably on a 2027 time frame. And I think the balance, Shar, that all policymakers are trying to strike is what's the sufficient revenue stream to incentivize someone to write an equity check and at the same time, deliver affordable electricity in Texas that's obviously reliable. And there's a tension there. And that tension shows up in some of the rule makings and the procedures that are going to follow -- we're going to learn more as they follow through on these in the next 3 to 6 months.

DRS 及時推出，目前尚不清楚這可能會對價格訊號產生什麼樣的影響。最後是 PCM，這種績效信用機制已納入法律（眾議院第 1500 號法案），也可能在 2027 年的時間範圍內。莎爾，我認為所有政策制定者都試圖達到的平衡是，有足夠的收入來源來激勵人們開立股權支票，同時在德州提供負擔得起的、顯然可靠的電力。那裡有一種緊張氣氛。這種緊張關係體現在一些規則制定和將要遵循的程序中——我們將在他們在未來 3 到 6 個月內貫徹這些規則時了解更多資訊。

So the loan program is certainly helpful. We don't view that as sufficient as a revenue signal you still see in our PowerPoint deck. There's backwardation in the spark spreads for ERCOT. So why they are higher than they were when we first started to talk to you about long-dated curves in 2022, they're still backwardated. We need to see some support for the price signals to be able to be confident that a 20- to 30-year life asset has a reasonable prospect for a return. And I think people are working hard to try to make that happen, but that's still TBD.

所以貸款計劃肯定是有幫助的。我們認為這還不如您在我們的 PowerPoint 簡報中看到的那樣充分的收入訊號。 ERCOT 的火星價差有現貨溢價。那麼，為什麼它們比我們第一次開始與您談論 2022 年長期曲線時更高，它們仍然是現貨溢價。我們需要看到價格訊號的一些支持，才能確信 20 至 30 年期的人壽資產具有合理的回報前景。我認為人們正在努力實現這一目標，但這仍然是待定的。

Perfect. Jim, congrats on the execution. I'll see you soon. Appreciate it.

完美的。吉姆，祝賀你被處死。一會兒見。欣賞它。

And now we have a question from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.

現在我們有來自摩根士丹利的大衛·阿卡羅的問題。

Maybe a bit of a follow-on to that question, specifically on data center growth. And as we see that accelerate, wondering if you could speak to how you're thinking about the potential market impact and opportunities for your fleet, potentially from new data centers coming on?

也許是這個問題的後續問題，特別是關於資料中心成長的問題。當我們看到這種加速發展時，想知道您是否可以談談您如何看待新資料中心的潛在市場影響和機會？

Sure. Yes. Thanks, David, for the question. I'll step back just a second to say that as the grids have become a little bit tighter across the country, we're seeing the fossil assets retire, particularly coal. And then we're seeing more electrification. We're seeing customers approach us at a rate that we haven't seen in my history with this industry. And data center specifically, they're looking for speed to market, so they're trying to get online as fast as they can. They're obviously looking for where they've got good fiber, particularly potentially access to water for cooling needs, but reliability is now entering that discussion.

當然。是的。謝謝大衛提出這個問題。我要退後一步說，隨著全國範圍內的電網變得更加緊張，我們看到化石資產的退役，特別是煤炭。然後我們會看到更多的電氣化。我們看到客戶以我在這個行業的歷史上從未見過的速度接近我們。特別是資料中心，他們正在尋求上市速度，因此他們試圖盡快上線。顯然，他們正在尋找優質光纖的來源，特別是有可能獲得滿足冷卻需求的水的地方，但可靠性現在正在進入討論。

So many of them are talking about while they can do it out on the grid, they're interested in also being behind the meter. And depending on who the customer is, it doesn't need to be a nuclear plant. They're actually entertaining gas plants for behind-the-meter opportunities. And we've done that with some of the crypto load already in Texas. We've done some behind the meter. So we're familiar with it.

他們中的許多人都在談論，雖然他們可以在電網上做到這一點，但他們也有興趣在儀表後面。根據客戶是誰，它不一定是核電廠。他們實際上是在為燃氣廠提供幕後工作機會。我們已經在德克薩斯州使用了一些加密負載來做到這一點。我們已經在儀表後面做了一些工作。所以我們對它很熟悉。

Whether that load goes behind the meter or out on the grid, it's new demand. And that's part of the supply/demand equation that might also send the price signals. That could also then incentivize new supply. But it's meaningful, David. It's hard to get locked in on any one forecast. But most forecasts have a doubling of this data center load by 2030. Texas is a pretty easy place to do business. So Texas, which is already the second largest data center market in the country, may end up getting a disproportionate amount of it. But we do see this as a real opportunity for our company. I will tell you in terms of customers approaching us way more customers approaching us around data centers than we've had so far on hydrogen.

無論負載是在電錶後面還是在電網上，這都是新的需求。這是供需方程式的一部分，也可能發出價格訊號。這也可能會刺激新的供應。但這很有意義，大衛。很難鎖定任何一項預測。但大多數預測到 2030 年該資料中心負載將增加一倍。德州是一個非常容易開展業務的地方。因此，已經是美國第二大數據中心市場的德克薩斯州最終可能會獲得不成比例的份額。但我們確實認為這對我們公司來說是一個真正的機會。我會告訴你，就接近我們的客戶而言，在資料中心周圍接近我們的客戶比我們迄今為止在氫方面的客戶要多得多。

And part of that is just the rules uncertainty around hydrogen, but also I think we're serving a customer demand. There's actually a demand for where this is going, where the hydrogen has been a little bit more supply driven and trying to create a product that's inexpensive. This is more pull from the customer, and we're having a lot of conversations. We're pretty excited about it.

部分原因在於氫的規則不確定性，但我認為我們正在滿足客戶的需求。實際上，這方面的需求是存在的，氫氣更多是由供應驅動的，並試圖創造一種廉價的產品。這更多來自於客戶，我們正在進行許多對話。我們對此感到非常興奮。

Yes. Got it. I appreciate that perspective. How early is it? When do you think that you could see potential market impacts if it's upside in the curve or potential contracts, like you say, with maybe behind the meter or contracted power with these customers?

是的。知道了。我很欣賞這種觀點。現在幾點了？您認為，如果曲線上行或潛在合約（如您所說）可能會在電錶後面或與這些客戶簽訂合約電力，您何時會看到潛在的市場影響？

Yes. The behind-the-meter activity, it still takes some planning studies that we work on with ERCOT and the wires company. You may also need to be doing the substation construction, get some of the high-voltage switchgear. So you could still be looking at a couple of years for something to go from concept to reality. So I wouldn't say that it's immediately around the corner for something, that's a new conversation. There are clearly some current data centers that could actually even be repowered. Those can actually go from existing chips that are used more for cloud services to the more energy-intensive AI purpose chips. That could be happening over the course of the next 2 years. But I would say it's a couple of year process, David, from my perspective.

是的。對於用戶側活動，我們仍需要與 ERCOT 和電線公司合作進行一些規劃研究。您可能還需要進行變電站建設，以獲得一些高壓開關設備。因此，您可能仍需要幾年時間才能將概念變為現實。所以我不會說某件事即將發生，這是一個新的對話。顯然，目前的一些資料中心實際上甚至可以重新供電。這些實際上可以從更多用於雲端服務的現有晶片到能源密集型人工智慧用途晶片。這可能會在未來兩年內發生。但我想說，大衛，從我的角度來看，這是一個幾年的過程。

And we'll follow with a question from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

接下來我們將回答來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith 的問題。

Congratulations on the progress here, nicely done. In fact, I wanted to follow up on the last question and the expectations for 1Q update here. Can you give us an initial glimpse on how you think about capital allocation? I presume to a certain extent, there could be capital commitments on your part to enable some of these data-oriented strategies, right, to perhaps provide some of the warehousing, et cetera. So how do you think about that impacting capital location, as you say, maybe a couple of years out '25, '26?

祝賀這裡取得的進展，幹得好。事實上，我想在這裡跟進最後一個問題以及對第一季更新的期望。您能否讓我們初步了解您對資本配置的看法？我認為在某種程度上，您可能會做出資本承諾，以實現其中一些面向數據的策略，對吧，或許可以提供一些倉儲等。那麼，正如您所說，也許在「25」、「26」幾年後，您如何看待對首都位置的影響？

And then maybe to marry that up, how do you think about sustaining this level of buyback? Or do you have any kind of broad heuristics that you might be willing to share as you think about buybacks beyond '25 -- '25 and beyond here as you think about this updated plan with 1Q?

然後也許將其結合起來，您如何看待維持這種水準的回購？或者，當您考慮 25 年後的回購時，您是否願意分享任何廣泛的啟發？當您考慮第一季的更新計劃時，您是否願意分享？

Yes, Julien, thank you very much for the questions. I'll start with the data center opportunities, as I mentioned, whether behind the meter or whether out on the grid, they have a natural sort of demand increase that could send some price signals for wholesale power prices in the out year. Some of that could be factored into these curves already.

是的，朱利安，非常感謝你提出的問題。正如我所提到的，我將從資料中心的機會開始，無論是在電錶後面還是在電網上，它們都有一種自然的需求增長，可能會為未來一年的批發電價發出一些價格信號。其中一些因素已經可以納入這些曲線中。

I mean people have been reading about this. The curves are stronger today than they were in the spring of 2022 when we first put out our multiyear guidance range. So I think Vistra being a net long in ERCOT has an opportunity whether we are directly involved with the data center or not. So then you beg the question, when would we get directly involved? It's if we found that there's a return on that capital to do something that would make sense relative to our other capital allocation alternatives. I would say that I'm not in the detail at a level of comfort yet that I would tell you that's actionable.

我的意思是人們一直在閱讀有關此內容的文​​章。今天的曲線比 2022 年春季我們首次推出多年指引範圍時的曲線更強。因此，我認為瑞致達作為 ERCOT 的淨多頭，無論我們是否直接參與資料中心，都有機會。那你就會問，我們什麼時候會直接參與？如果我們發現相對於我們的其他資本配置方案而言，做一些有意義的事情會有資本回報。我想說的是，我對細節的了解還不夠舒適，但我會告訴你這是可行的。

So we know that from a free cash flow yield perspective, it's still pretty attractive for us to be returning capital through the buyback. So we would need to see a level of, what I'd call, transactable economics that have the long-term agreement to bring that to bear as an alternative to our capital allocation strategy, in which case, I think our shareholders would be pleased to see it. But I view this as an opportunity for us with our native position that I think it's specifically an enhanced opportunity for our own assets if we choose to do something behind the meter.

所以我們知道，從自由現金流收益率的角度來看，透過回購返還資本對我們來說仍然相當有吸引力。因此，我們需要看到一定程度的可交易經濟學，並達成長期協議，將其作為我們資本配置策略的替代方案，在這種情況下，我認為我們的股東會很高興看見了。但我認為這對我們來說是一個機會，因為我們的本土地位是，如果我們選擇在幕後做一些事情，我認為這對我們自己的資產來說尤其是一個增強的機會。

In addition, I didn't even mention, but in addition to the data center, of course, we have population growth in Texas, which is still strong. And we have a Permian Basin growth rate for load that ERCOT has put out some studies that suggest that you could see 13 gigawatts of growth out West from 2023 to 2030. That's oil and gas driven, it's population driven. It's also got some data center load growth there. So this is a general theme and then how that -- I think will benefit an asset position like Vistra. And then specifically, how we might target our own assets, I view that as incremental upside, none of which is factored in to our long-range plan at this point.

另外，我什至沒有提到，但除了數據中心之外，當然，我們德克薩斯州的人口增長仍然強勁。 ERCOT 發布的一些研究表明，從 2023 年到 2030 年，西部地區可能會出現 13 吉瓦的增長。這是石油和天然氣驅動的，也是人口驅動的。那裡的數據中心負載也有所增長。所以這是一個整體主題，我認為這將有利於像瑞致達這樣的資產部位。然後具體來說，我們如何瞄準我們自己的資產，我認為這是增量的好處，目前我們的長期計劃中沒有考慮到這些因素。

And in terms of when we'll update from a capital allocation and how we think about longer-term buybacks, I'm going to have Kris jump in.

至於我們何時更新資本配置以及我們如何考慮長期回購，我將讓克里斯介入。

Yes, Julien, I would say you hit it with the Energy Harbor transaction. So as that closes, as we look forward, we talked about expecting to spend $2.25 billion on share repurchases over 2024 and 2025. We also have a little bit of debt to repay, and we have some growth that you see for our renewables and energy storage business. But on top of that, we do expect to have additional cash available for allocation that's unallocated. We think it's preliminary right now to get into the levels that, that is because we just want to make sure to get this Energy Harbor deal closed and put the 2 businesses start integrating the businesses. But I do think we will come back to you and talk about an additional amount that over the next 2 years that we have to allocate on top of the share repurchase estimate that we're making. And so I don't believe that any of those opportunities would disrupt our pacing on share repurchases.

是的，朱利安，我想說你透過能源港交易成功了。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們談到預計將在 2024 年和 2025 年花費 22.5 億美元用於股票回購。我們還有一點債務需要償還，而且我們的可再生能源和能源也有一些增長。倉儲業務。但最重要的是，我們確實希望有額外的現金可用於分配未分配的資金。我們認為現在進入這個水平還處於初步階段，因為我們只是想確保完成能源港交易並讓兩家企業開始整合業務。但我確實認為我們會回去找你並討論未來兩年我們必須在我們正在進行的股票回購估計之上分配的額外金額。因此，我認為這些機會都不會擾亂我們股票回購的節奏。

Right, even as a percent of total cash flow beyond '25?

對吧，即使是 25 年後總現金流量的百分比？

I think as we -- well, beyond '25, I think what we'll -- we're going to continue to come back, I still think that the -- we haven't ever announced it as a percentage, but I think as a gross amount in this $1 billion-plus range on a per year basis, we don't see anything that would move us off that now. But we will continue to evaluate that with our Board.

我認為，隨著我們 - 嗯，25 年後，我認為我們將 - 我們將繼續回來，我仍然認為 - 我們從未宣布過它的百分比，但我考慮到每年超過10 億美元的總金額，我們現在沒有看到任何可以讓我們擺脫這個範圍的事情。但我們將繼續與董事會一起評估這一點。

Wonderful. I know it's in flight. Good luck, guys. We'll speak to you then.

精彩的。我知道它在飛行中。祝大家好運。到時候我們會和你談談。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ICI -- ISI, pardon me.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ICI（ISI）的 Durgesh Chopra，請原諒。

Kris, just maybe this is a stupid question. Will ask it anyways. The TRA transaction that you did, does that have any implication on like your forward looking free cash flow guidance? You kind of talked to it as being somewhat cash flow accretive. So are there any implications as we think about sort of '25 guidance and beyond?

克里斯，也許這是一個愚蠢的問題。無論如何都會問它。您進行的 TRA 交易對您的前瞻性自由現金流指引有什麼影響嗎？你說它可以增加現金流。那麼，當我們思考 25 年及以後的指導方針時，這是否有任何影響？

It does, we do. We do see some benefits on a -- just a straight free cash flow basis, it is positive from free cash flow. So if you look -- as we talked about, we spent about $150 million of cash and then we issued the preferred. And so over the course of 5 years, our cash cost for that repurchase is in the neighborhood of $350 million. Our estimates that we previously had would have shown that the TRA payments would have been roughly twice that. So there is some free cash flow pickup and that will factor into our conversion percentage.

確實如此，我們確實如此。我們確實看到了一些好處——就直接的自由現金流而言，自由現金流是正面的。所以，如果你看一下——正如我們所說，我們花費了大約 1.5 億美元現金，然後我們發行了優先股。因此，在 5 年的時間裡，我們用於回購的現金成本約為 3.5 億美元。我們先前的估計顯示，TRA 付款大約是這個數字的兩倍。因此，自由現金流有所增加，這將影響我們的轉換率。

We still see -- obviously, we're in a higher cost and higher interest rate environment. So there are puts and takes. And so I think we still feel really good about saying that our expectation is that we would be 55% on average over the planning horizon. Some years, we expect to be more like this year, you see in our materials that we end up just over 60% conversion. In some years, depending on the timing of maintenance capital could be a little bit lower. But I think on average, 55%, the mid-50s is the right place for our conversion ratio.

我們仍然看到——顯然，我們處於更高的成本和更高的利率環境。所以有放和取。因此，我認為我們仍然很高興地說我們的期望是在規劃範圍內平均達到 55%。有些年份，我們預計會更像今年，您在我們的材料中看到，我們最終的轉換率略高於 60%。在某些年份，根據維護時間的不同，資本可能會稍微低一些。但我認為平均而言，55%，50 年代中期是我們轉換率的正確位置。

Okay. That's super helpful. But it is accretive to your cash flow guidance, but there are obviously other drags and you're comfortable with the 55% range is the key takeaway there, okay.

好的。這非常有幫助。但這會增加你的現金流指導，但顯然還有其他阻力，你對 55% 的範圍感到滿意，這是關鍵的結論，好吧。

And then maybe just can I ask -- I don't want to jump the gun, but what to expect in terms of disclosures on the first quarter call, whether EBITDA is still the metric? And then in terms of forward-looking years, what to expect, if you could share any color?

然後也許我可以問——我不想操之過急，但就第一季電話會議的披露而言，我們會期待什麼，EBITDA 是否仍然是衡量標準？那麼就未來幾年而言，如果您可以分享任何顏色，您會期待什麼？

Yes. So we're going to focus here on Energy Harbor and getting it closed. I do think that whether it's on that call or future call, we are going to continue to assess what is the best way for us to communicate the ongoing value of this company. And so I do think we will -- at the very -- we do expect to plan -- we do expect to give updated guidance for this year. But as we go forward, what metrics we use and how we communicate what we see as the value of the business, we're going to continue to work through that, and we will come back to you whether that. It could come on the May call, but it could come also later this year. We're going to think through that and make sure that we've thought through all the issues.

是的。因此，我們將重點關注能源港並關閉它。我確實認為，無論是在這次電話會議還是未來的電話會議中，我們都將繼續評估傳達該公司持續價值的最佳方式。因此，我確實認為我們將 - 我們確實希望計劃 - 我們確實希望為今年提供最新的指導。但隨著我們前進，我們使用什麼指標以及我們如何傳達我們所認為的業務價值，我們將繼續努力解決這個問題，無論是否如此，我們都會回覆您。它可能會在五月的電話會議上發布，但也可能在今年稍後發布。我們將仔細考慮並確保我們已經考慮了所有問題。

Durgesh, what I would add is, once we close Energy Harbor, we will go through a process to confirm the synergy numbers. So we'll talk about that on the May call. That will then lead to the 2024 expectation, as Kris said, of the combined companies. We will also, as he noted in his script, we'll talk about where we see the 2025 headed as well. And obviously, the synergies are part of that.

Durgesh，我要補充的是，一旦我們關閉能源港，我們將透過一個流程來確認協同數字。所以我們將在五月電話會議上討論這個問題。正如 Kris 所說，這將導致對合併後公司 2024 年的預期。正如他在劇本中指出的那樣，我們還將討論 2025 年的發展方向。顯然，協同效應是其中的一部分。

Capital allocation, there will be an amount that's still unallocated that we see that we will be talking to our Board with, with respect to how we think about the best use of that capital. But what you could expect to hear about in May, at least to 2024 with a nod to 2025 with our guidance and then these updated synergy expectations.

資本分配，我們認為還有一部分尚未分配的金額，我們將與董事會討論我們如何考慮該資本的最佳利用。但您可以期望在 5 月聽到什麼，至少到 2024 年，並根據我們的指導和這些更新的協同預期到 2025 年。

As far as the best metrics, clearly, with Constellation's call yesterday, very successful in their description of how to think about the value drivers. For our business, where we have looked at it and since the buyback program was enhanced in 2021, so far, we've really focused on the return of cash and capital to the shareholders. And on a per share basis, between the buyback programs and the dividends, you're seeing that in the sort of $4.45 on the high end and that's an opportunity that's per share. And so that's just from a return of capital standpoint.

就最佳指標而言，顯然，Constellation 昨天的電話會議非常成功地描述瞭如何思考價值驅動因素。對於我們的業務，我們已經研究過，自從 2021 年回購計畫得到加強以來，到目前為止，我們真正關注的是向股東返還現金和資本。以每股為基礎，在回購計劃和股息之間，您會看到高端價格約為 4.45 美元，這是每股的機會。這只是從資本回報的角度來看。

In terms of the adjusted free cash flow before growth on a per share basis, it's much higher on a stand-alone basis, that's closer to $6 a share. As far as working through GAAP and working through the mark-to-market, working through depreciation and amortization, we will be taking a look at that. What we've tried to focus on to date has been much more about the proof points around the capital we're returning and the sustainability of that and, frankly, the upsizing of that. But clearly, the investor response yesterday was super positive. And if there's opportunities for us to be more clear about the value drivers and the comfort that investors are looking for, for the long term, we owe it to them. We'll be certainly taking a look at that.

就每股成長前的調整後自由現金流而言，單獨計算的自由現金流要高得多，接近每股 6 美元。至於透過公認會計準則、按市值計價、透過折舊和攤提進行工作，我們將對此進行研究。迄今為止，我們試圖關注的更多是關於我們正在歸還的資本的證據以及其可持續性，坦率地說，是其規模的擴大。但顯然，昨天投資者的反應非常正面。如果我們有機會更清楚地了解價值驅動因素和投資者所尋求的安慰，從長遠來看，我們應該感謝他們。我們肯定會考慮這一點。

We are now taking a question from Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Research.

我們現在接受沃爾夫研究中心邁克爾·沙利文的提問。

Jim, you kind of answered this, but just wanted to confirm. So it sounds like the synergies from the original target, you're going to kind of revisit and refresh. But the Energy Harbor guidance itself, what you're putting out there today, is that just kind of what you saw originally? Or is that actually refreshed and just consistent as of today?

吉姆，你回答了這個問題，但只是想確認一下。所以這聽起來像是來自最初目標的協同效應，你將重新審視和刷新。但是能源港指南本身，也就是您今天發布的內容，是您最初看到的嗎？或者說，到今天為止，這實際上已經更新並且保持一致了嗎？

Yes, Michael, I would say it has been -- we have been updating it ourselves as we're tracking kind of through the process of working to close. We feel good about it. So when we looked at $700 million on a 12-month basis, I do think we'll be in the ballpark of prorating 10, 12ths of that number. If you do that and you add it to our Vistra stand-alone as we sit today, then you're in the $4.5 billion sort of range for calendar year 2024. That's above where we were when we announced the acquisition in March of 2023.

是的，邁克爾，我想說的是——我們一直在自己更新它，因為我們正在追蹤關閉的過程。我們對此感覺很好。因此，當我們以 12 個月為基礎考慮 7 億美元時，我確實認為我們將按比例分配該數字的 10 分之 12。如果你這樣做，並將其添加到我們今天坐的瑞致達獨立公司中，那麼 2024 年的收入範圍將達到 45 億美元。這高於我們在 2023 年 3 月宣布收購時的水平。

The synergy numbers, I think there'll be some upside to the synergy numbers, but not likely in calendar year '24 because we thought we could close this deal later last year. So we're getting a later start. But I think by the end of this year, we'll be about where we expected from a run rate perspective. I think there's upside to the out years on how we're thinking about it. So we'd expect to talk about that on the May call. But the way you're thinking about it is correct, Michael. I think it's always helpful to close a deal, work with the teams day in and day out, make sure we understand all the assumptions and then affirm and potentially, we see a chance to upsize some things on the May call, we'll do it at that time.

協同效應數字，我認為協同效應數字會有一些上升空間，但在 24 日曆年不太可能，因為我們認為我們可以在去年晚些時候完成這筆交易。所以我們開始得晚一點。但我認為到今年年底，從運行率的角度來看，我們將達到預期的水平。我認為我們對這個問題的思考方式在未來幾年會有正面的一面。所以我們希望在五月的電話會議上討論這個問題。但你的想法是正確的，麥可。我認為達到交易總是有幫助的，日復一日地與團隊合作，確保我們理解所有假設，然後確認，並且有可能，我們看到有機會在五月電話會議上擴大一些事情，我們會做那時的它。

Okay. Super clear. And then we continue to get questions on this. Just can you give us the latest on where you are in terms of having nuclear fuel secured both for Comanche and to the extent Energy Harbor's position?

好的。超級清晰。然後我們繼續收到有關此問題的問題。您能否向我們介紹一下您在確保科曼奇核燃料以及能源港的地位方面的最新進展？

Sure. Yes. Yes, we're -- we believe we're in really good shape. Michael, we have, as I've indicated on previous calls, we have, as Vistra done some additional procurements through time since we announced the transaction. Obviously, we had a high percentage likelihood in our view of being able to close the transaction. Either way, the markets continue to go up in price, and that's been speculation on the part of a number of folks based on whether Russia pans or limitations would ultimately be put in place.

當然。是的。是的，我們相信我們的狀態非常好。邁克爾，正如我在之前的電話中指出的那樣，自從我們宣布交易以來，瑞致達已經進行了一些額外的採購。顯然，我們認為能夠完成交易的可能性很高。無論哪種方式，市場價格都會繼續上漲，這是許多人根據俄羅斯最終是否會實施限製或限制進行的猜測。

So we have a physical procurement strategy that we are secure for both Energy Harbor sites and our site Comanche Peak through 2027 refuelings. And we feel good about that. We're also substantially hedged into 2028 as well. So we feel good about the risk management around that. And of course, long term, depending on where this goes with the domestic fuel supply capabilities and whether the federal government will incentivize more domestic capabilities for enrichment, remains to be seen. But I think we have a very good line of sight and very consistent with everything that we've shared publicly so far and our expectations of this deal.

因此，我們制定了實體採購策略，確保能源港站點和科曼奇峰站點在 2027 年加油之前都是安全的。我們對此感覺很好。我們也對 2028 年進行了大幅對沖。因此，我們對此的風險管理感覺良好。當然，從長遠來看，這取決於國內燃料供應能力的發展以及聯邦政府是否會激勵更多的國內濃縮能力，還有待觀察。但我認為我們的視野非常好，並且與我們迄今為止公開分享的一切以及我們對這筆交易的期望非常一致。

(Operator Instructions) And now we follow with a question from Angie Storozynski from Seaport.

（操作員說明）現在我們回答來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski 的問題。

So maybe first with -- yes, the fundamentals of our markets are tightening, but we don't see it in forward power curves and probably very low natural gas prices do not help. But I'm just wondering if you think that there will be a step change in those power curves on the back of any big announcements about and data centers, you name it. We've seen some positive surprise in capacity prices in New England. I'm wondering if you'd hope to see a similar message being sent from the next PJM capacity auction? And again, how do you think we will see more of a forward-looking signal that the profitability of your assets is improving?

因此，也許首先是——是的，我們市場的基本面正在收緊，但我們在遠期功率曲線中沒有看到這一點，而且可能非常低的天然氣價格也無濟於事。但我只是想知道您是否認為在任何有關資料中心的重大公告的背後，這些功率曲線都會發生階躍變化，凡是您能想到的。我們看到新英格蘭的運力價格出現了一些正面的驚喜。我想知道您是否希望在下一次 PJM 容量拍賣中看到類似的消息？再說一次，您認為我們將如何看到更多關於您資產的獲利能力正在改善的前瞻性訊號？

Yes, Angie, thank you for that. New England was a better clear than we've seen in a while. In fact, about 50% higher in the 2027, '28 auction than what we saw just prior in the previous auction. Good for our gas fleet, obviously, up in New England. PJM has delayed some of their auctions. So we have to play catch-up with PJM. So we'll see what comes forward.

是的，安吉，謝謝你。新英格蘭比我們一段時間以來看到的更加清晰。事實上，2027 年、28 年的拍賣比我們之前在上一次拍賣中看到的價格高出約 50%。顯然，這對我們在新英格蘭的天然氣車隊有好處。 PJM 延後了部分拍賣活動。所以我們必須追趕PJM。所以我們將看看接下來會發生什麼。

There's going to be a number of auctions that happen in the next 12 months to get caught up in PJM. There have been market reforms proposed for PJM. Some of those are going to be implemented. Some of them were not supported by FERC. So again, it's still a little bit of a struggle as to what is going to be the effect on the capacity. Things like market seller offer cap have been very difficult to move the needle on, which has had a dampening effect on capacity prices. But this effective load-carrying capability, or ELCC, where potentially the dispatchable assets get proportionally more credit than the intermittent. That's an opportunity for the PJM capacity clear.

未來 12 個月內將舉行多場拍賣會，以吸引 PJM。 PJM 已提出市場改革建議。其中一些將被實施。其中一些未得到 FERC 的支持。再說一次，對於容量的影響仍然存在一些爭議。市場賣家報價上限之類的事情一直很難推動，這對運力價格產生了抑製作用。但這種有效的承載能力（ELCC）可能會比間歇性資產獲得更多的信用。這是 PJM 產能清除的一個機會。

So I think they are coming to the same conclusion that other grid operators, which is we -- PJM used to be really flushed with excess capacity, but a lot of it is retiring. And the gas plants are critical because the intermittent sources for wind and solar are not nearly as naturally supported in PJM as they are in places like ERCOT in California.

因此，我認為他們得出了與其他電網營運商相同的結論，即我們 PJM 過去確實充滿了過剩的產能，但其中許多正在退役。天然氣發電廠至關重要，因為 PJM 的風能和太陽能間歇性能源不像加州 ERCOT 那樣得到自然支持。

As far as Texas is concerned, as I mentioned, the spark, and you see it in the graph that Kris covered the spark spread has definitely moved up. So gas prices went up and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have come back down. Sparks have stayed elevated relative to that time frame, but they're still strongly backwardated. And I think that still comes from the concern of how much renewables will continue to come in.

就德克薩斯州而言，正如我所提到的，火花，你可以在克里斯覆蓋的圖表中看到，火花傳播肯定已經上升。因此，天然氣價格上漲，俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突也有所緩和。相對於該時間範圍，火花一直保持在較高水平，但仍有嚴重逆價差。我認為這仍然來自於對再生能源將繼續進入的擔憂。

And then also, will the market reforms support price formation in ERCOT. And ECRS was an example where price formation occurred last summer. There was a lot of concern from a lot of customers and others that maybe there was too much price formation. And so they start having to revisit the rules. And now I would say it's just uncertain how some of these things like ECRS will play out.

然後，市場改革是否會支持 ERCOT 的價格形成。 ECRS 就是去年夏天價格形成的一個例子。許多客戶和其他人都非常擔心價格形成過多。因此他們開始不得不重新審視規則。現在我想說的是，像 ECRS 這樣的一些東西將如何發揮作用還不確定。

So certainty around some of these ancillaries will help certainty around PCM will help. That coupled with the demand growth that is actualized on the ground, I think, could help address some of the backwardation in ERCOT, which could then help address the investment signal. But we've said that for a while, ERCOT has been backwardated for about forever. If you go long enough out back in history, so the prop will always be pretty strong because that's where reality meets the supply/demand. But out in the forwards, you still see concern around whether the price signals will be there. And that's part of the Texas market reform and, ultimately, the gas plant investment that folks are considering. But I think that's still yet to play out.

因此，圍繞其中一些輔助設備的確定性將有助於確定 PCM 的確定性。我認為，再加上實際需求的成長，可能有助於解決 ERCOT 的部分現貨溢價問題，有助於解決投資訊號。但我們已經說過，ERCOT 的現貨溢價已經有一段時間了。如果你回顧歷史足夠長的時間，那麼支撐總是相當強大，因為這就是現實滿足供需的地方。但在遠期交易中，您仍然會擔心價格訊號是否會出現。這是德州市場改革的一部分，最終也是人們正在考慮的天然氣廠投資的一部分。但我認為這還沒結束。

Okay. And then changing topics. So I understand that the Energy Harbor transaction hasn't closed, but I'm sure that, obviously, was taking months to close. You were probably looking at the assets you're acquiring and potential revenue and cost synergies. So we're waiting for probably the first colocation of a data center with a nuclear plant. And I'm just wondering, one, if you think that this will have an impact on other nuclear power owners?

好的。然後就換話題了。所以我知道能源港交易尚未完成，但我確信顯然需要幾個月的時間才能完成。您可能正在考慮您正在收購的資產以及潛在的收入和成本協同效應。因此，我們正在等待資料中心與核電廠的首次託管。我只是想知道，第一，您認為這是否會對其他核電所有者產生影響？

And also, how do you see the portfolio and large portfolio of nuclear plants vis-à-vis that opportunity? I'm mostly asking most of your sites are single unit nuclear plants. So there's this no backup from additional units that a data center would get? And would you think that it's somewhat of an impediment to the pursuit of such a colocation strategy on your sites?

另外，您如何看待核電廠的投資組合和大型投資組合與這個機會？我主要是問你們的站點大部分都是單體核電廠。那麼資料中心不會從其他單元獲得備份嗎？您是否認為這會在某種程度上阻礙您在網站上實施這種託管策略？

Yes. Angie, it's a fair question. I would say the data center growth behind the meter at a nuclear plant is still early stages for anybody in the market. It's certainly been discussed and being considered, but it still takes time for some of these to play out. I do think the 2 units having an opportunity to have redundancy will be attractive for customers. So Veeva Valley has been the one that is it working towards this path and then Comanche Peak as well.

是的。安吉，這是一個公平的問題。我想說，對於市場上的任何人來說，核電廠儀表後面的資料中心成長仍處於早期階段。這當然已經被討論和考慮過，但其中一些方案的實施仍需要時間。我確實認為有機會獲得冗餘的兩個單位將對客戶有吸引力。因此，Veeva Valley 一直在朝著這條道路努力，然後科曼奇峰也是如此。

However, I'll go back to a comment I made on an earlier question. Between the colocation companies and the hyperscalers, speed is very important to them. So while the redundancy may not be there on a single unit site, pulling from the grid would still be an option. And that's how we manage the behind the meter that we work with, with our gas plant. So while there is a preference list from a customer standpoint of things that check every box, I think there's going to be a balance of factors that the potential data center companies will be considering when they do a site selection. And speed is one of them. Economics is one of them, access to water is another one.

不過，我將回到我對先前問題所做的評論。在託管公司和超大規模企業之間，速度對他們來說非常重要。因此，雖然單一單元站點上可能不存在冗餘，但從電網中拉出仍然是一種選擇。這就是我們管理與我們合作的天然氣工廠的儀表後面的方式。因此，雖然從客戶的角度來看有一個需要勾選每個選項的偏好列表，但我認為潛在的資料中心公司在進行選址時會考慮多種因素。速度就是其中之一。經濟是其中之一，獲得水是另一項。

So there's a number of variables there beyond just the 2 units versus 1 unit. But all things being equal, that would probably be a preferred site, Angie. But I -- the fact that we're being approached about gas plants, tells you that it isn't just about the carbon attributes. It's about some of these others as well.

因此，除了 2 個單位與 1 個單位之外，還有許多變數。但在所有條件相同的情況下，這可能是一個首選站點，安吉。但我——我們正在就天然氣工廠問題與您接洽的事實告訴您，這不僅僅是關於碳屬性的問題。這也與其中一些有關。

Okay. And then lastly, I'm sorry that I'm asking so many questions. But if you were to be approached by some of these tech companies and offer long-term contracts. And again, against a very depressed forward power curve, would you be willing to actually lock in some of these assets? Or are you basically thinking that we're about to see a step change in how the market assesses the value of your assets and so there's no need to actually lock the value at the bottom of the -- a potential bottom of the cycle?

好的。最後，我很抱歉我問了這麼多問題。但如果其中一些科技公司與您聯繫並提供長期合約。再說一次，面對非常低迷的遠期功率曲線，您願意實際鎖定其中一些資產嗎？或者您基本上認為我們即將看到市場評估資產價值的方式發生重大變化，因此無需實際將價值鎖定在週期的潛在底部？

Yes. That is an excellent question, Angie. I don't know if it's an all or nothing approach because we have a lot of assets with a lot of length. But with -- if you're speaking nuclear first with a production tax credit that escalates with inflation and our curves are basically sitting at those levels, you would need to see something attractive from a customer to lock it in and it would have to be at a reasonable premium to what your view is of the alternative, which is to stay long, to have the PTC as some support on the bottom, but still retain some of the upside for that asset.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，安吉。我不知道這是一種全有還是全無的方法，因為我們有很多長度很長的資產。但是，如果你先談論核能，並隨著通貨膨脹增加生產稅收抵免，而我們的曲線基本上處於這些水平，那麼你需要從客戶那裡看到一些有吸引力的東西來鎖定它，而且它必須是相對於您對另一種選擇的看法，即持有多頭，讓 PTC 作為底部的一些支撐，但仍保留該資產的一些上行空間，價格有合理的溢價。

For other assets like the gas plants, I think you could potentially have more flexibility because you're not necessarily going to see that -- you're not going to see the PTC support for some of those. But from a nuclear standpoint, I don't think there's a rush here for the reasons that you mentioned. And it also takes time because of the complexity of these to put these in place. So I think we agree with how you're framing the question, Angie, and we're going to be patient about how we think about these opportunities.

對於天然氣廠等其他資產，我認為您可能擁有更大的靈活性，因為您不一定會看到這一點 — 您不會看到 PTC 對其中某些資產的支持。但從核的角度來看，我認為不會因為你提到的原因而出現匆忙。由於這些內容的複雜性，將這些內容落實到位也需要時間。所以我認為我們同意你如何提出這個問題，安吉，我們將耐心地思考這些機會。

And with that, we conclude the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke, the CEO of Vistra, for some closing remarks.

至此，我們結束了問答環節。我想將會議轉回瑞致達執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke) 致閉幕詞。

Perfect. Thank you. First, I want to start with just thanking the Vistra team. 2023 was a heck of a year, and we look forward to what is in store with Energy Harbor. So I also want to thank they have done an excellent job. Running a business during a year of uncertainty, whenever an announcement is made, the units are running very well. The team has been incredibly cooperative on our integration efforts. And we're excited about this Friday and becoming one team.

完美的。謝謝。首先，我想先感謝瑞致達團隊。 2023 年是不平凡的一年，我們期待能源港即將發生的事。所以我也要感謝他們做得非常好。在充滿不確定性的一年裡經營業務，每當發佈公告時，各部門都運作得很好。團隊在我們的整合工作中給予了令人難以置信的合作。我們很高興這個星期五能夠成為一支球隊。

We're going to continue to execute our plan, which includes returning capital in an environment of very strong long-term fundamentals. I think that came out in a number of the questions that we were asked. And I also hope that we get to see many of you in New York next week. We'll be up there for a couple of days, and it's always good to see folks face-to-face. So thank you for your time this morning, and we'll hopefully see you soon.

我們將繼續執行我們的計劃，其中包括在長期基本面非常強勁的環境下返還資本。我認為我們被問到的許多問題都反映了這一點。我也希望下週我們能在紐約見到你們中的許多人。我們會在那裡待幾天，能面對面見到人們總是很高興。感謝您今天早上抽出寶貴的時間，希望我們很快就能見到您。

And the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。