Vistra Corp. (VST) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Vistra Second Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Vistra 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，本活動將被錄音。現在我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Meagan Horn。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our second quarter 2023 results. Today's discussion is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

各位早安，感謝各位加入 Vistra 的投資人網路直播，一同討論我們 2023 年第二季業績。今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的「投資人關係」專區進行即時直播。您也可在該處取得今日的投資人簡報與財報新聞稿副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天由 Vistra 總裁暨執行長 Jim Burke，以及 Vistra 執行副總裁暨財務長 Kris Moldovan 主持電話會議。視需要，他們也將與其他 Vistra 資深主管一同在今日會議的第二部分回答提問。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on our call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation, all available on the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.

我們的財報新聞稿、簡報以及今日電話會議中討論的其他事項，包含對若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的引用。與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表，已載於新聞稿及投資人簡報附錄中，皆可於 Vistra 網站的投資人關係專區取得。此外，今日討論包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們僅就今日日期所認為合理的假設。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statement included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

此類前瞻性陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與所預測或暗示者有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述之義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾閱讀我們網站投資人簡報第 2 頁所載的安全港聲明，其中說明前瞻性陳述之風險、簡報中所含特定產業與市場資料之限制，以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之使用。謝謝。接下來我將把電話會議交給我們的總裁暨執行長 Jim Burke。

Thank you, Meagan. Good morning, and thank you all for joining our second quarter 2023 earnings call. The second quarter proved to be another strong one for the business as we delivered $1.008 billion in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Typically, we do not formally adjust our guidance ranges until after we get through the critical summer months. But based on performance to date and our forecast for the remainder of the year, we are confident in our ability to deliver in the upper half of the guidance ranges introduced on the third quarter earnings call last year.

謝謝你，Meagan。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。第二季對公司而言再次是強勁的一季，我們持續營運（ongoing operations）調整後 EBITDA 達 10.08 億美元。通常，我們不會在度過關鍵的夏季月份之前正式調整指引區間。但基於目前的表現以及對今年剩餘期間的預測，我們有信心能達成去年第三季財報電話會議所提出指引區間的上半部。

Accordingly, we are narrowing that original range, which was $3.4 billion to $4.0 billion to a new range of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Looking beyond 2023, the market curves continue to support a strong, consistent outlook as well. Our commercial team is working to strategically lock in these opportunities employing comprehensive hedging strategies to provide better line of sight to our earnings over our planning horizon, which in turn allows us to plan for capital return to our shareholders that is consistent and predictable.

因此，我們將原先 34 億至 40 億美元的區間收斂為新的區間：持續營運調整後 EBITDA 為 36 億至 40 億美元。展望 2023 年之後，市場遠期曲線同樣持續支持強勁且一致的前景。我們的商務團隊正運用全面性的避險策略，有策略地鎖定這些機會，以提升在規劃期間內對盈餘的可視性，進而使我們能規劃對股東一致且可預期的資本回饋。

In addition, I'm proud of the great strides we are making in the expansion of Vistra Zero carbon generation portfolio with our 350-megawatt addition to the Moss Landing energy storage facility that came online this quarter. I'll speak to that milestone momentarily, but first, I'd like to turn to Slide 5, where we once again highlight our 4 strategic priorities. I think it's important to continue to reiterate our focus on these priorities each quarter with some notable accomplishments. As I believe these are critical to long-term value creation.

此外，我也為我們在擴展 Vistra Zero 零碳發電組合方面所取得的重大進展感到自豪——本季我們在 Moss Landing 儲能設施新增 350 兆瓦並已併網。我稍後會談到這個里程碑，但首先我想請各位看第 5 頁，我們再次強調四項策略優先事項。我認為每一季持續重申我們對這些優先事項的聚焦並分享一些重要成果很重要，因為我相信這些對長期價值創造至關重要。

This quarter saw continued strong generation and commercial team execution combined with our retail business that continues to deliver strong counts and margin performance. Vistra is proving it can consistently deliver substantial and resilient earnings in a variety of power price and weather conditions.

本季我們持續看到發電與商務團隊的強勁執行力，並結合零售業務持續交出亮眼的客戶數與毛利表現。Vistra 正證明其能在各種電價與天候條件下，持續提供可觀且具韌性的獲利。

Just as last quarter, on average, we saw power prices this quarter clear lower than our realized hedge prices. This is highlighting the significant downside risk protection to our earnings at our comprehensive hedging strategy across the integrated business can and does consistently provide. These derisked consistent earnings give Vistra the confidence to announce aggressive shareholder return programs and then stick with those programs in amounts equal to or higher than those originally announced.

與上季相同，本季平均而言，我們看到市場電價的結算水準低於我們已實現的避險價格。這凸顯了我們在整合式業務中採用的全面避險策略，能且確實持續為盈餘提供顯著的下行風險保護。這些去風險且穩定的盈餘，使 Vistra 有信心宣布積極的股東回饋計畫，並且能以等同或高於原先宣布的金額持續執行。

I'll let Chris provide the detailed update on our capital allocation plan, but of the aggregate upsized $7.75 billion capital return plan we originally announced in November of 2021, we've already returned $3.35 billion through August 4, 2023, which is approximately $250 million ahead of the originally announced planned levels. We regularly evaluate how best to bring value to our shareholders, and we expect to continue buying back stock and paying dividends that grow each quarter based on a reduced share count.

我會讓 Chris 提供資本配置計畫的詳細更新。不過，在我們於 2021 年 11 月最初宣布、總額上調至 77.5 億美元的資本回饋計畫中，截至 2023 年 8 月 4 日我們已回饋 33.5 億美元，約較原先宣布的規劃水準提前 2.5 億美元。我們會定期評估為股東創造價值的最佳方式，並預期將持續回購股票並支付股利；在股數減少的基礎上，股利將可望每季成長。

Our balance sheet strength remains a top focus as well. You saw this quarter that we structured a $450 million PCAP transaction, which is unique in allowing us to post treasury securities as margin deposits, returning more cash to the balance sheet. We expect to utilize that cash plus the margin deposits that have been returned as expected as our hedges have settled throughout this year to fund a significant portion of the purchase price we expect to pay in the fourth quarter for Energy Harbor, substantially reducing the amount of acquisition debt to be issued.

資產負債表的強健同樣仍是我們的首要重點。本季各位看到我們安排了一筆 4.5 億美元的 PCAP 交易，其獨特之處在於允許我們以美國公債作為保證金存款，將更多現金回流至資產負債表。我們預期將運用該等現金，加上今年隨著避險結算而如預期返還的保證金存款，來支付我們預計於第四季收購 Energy Harbor 的相當大一部分對價，從而大幅降低需發行的收購負債金額。

Finally, as it relates to our opportunities with the energy transition, in addition to the progress we are making on the Energy Harbor acquisition, which I'll speak to in a minute, I would like to turn to Slide 6 regarding our Moss Landing facility. The Vistra team did an excellent job in bringing online an additional 350 megawatts to add to the existing 400 megawatts at our Moss Landing site in California, which is the largest energy storage facility of its kind in the world.

最後，關於能源轉型帶來的機會，除了我們在 Energy Harbor 收購案上所取得的進展（我稍後會談到）之外，我想請各位看第 6 頁，關於我們的 Moss Landing 設施。Vistra 團隊表現出色，本季成功讓新增的 350 兆瓦上線，並加計我們在加州 Moss Landing 現址既有的 400 兆瓦，使其成為全球同類型中最大的儲能設施。

This addition came online ahead of schedule and on budget despite a challenging supply chain environment and extreme rainfall. This is now a total of 750 megawatts of energy storage backed by contracted revenues through our PG&E resource adequacy agreements. Importantly, we continue to see additional opportunities to add batteries to this site in the future. The facility is located in the CAISO Energy market, which is experiencing significantly higher gas price volatility as well as the potential for scarcity pricing due to high demand and import competition from the neighboring balancing authorities.

儘管供應鏈環境充滿挑戰且遭遇極端降雨，此次新增容量仍提前完工並符合預算。這使我們的儲能總量達到 750 兆瓦，並透過與 PG&E 的資源充足性（resource adequacy）協議，由合約收入提供支撐。重要的是，我們仍看到未來在此場址進一步增設電池的機會。該設施位於 CAISO 能源市場，該市場正經歷顯著更高的天然氣價格波動，同時因需求高企以及與鄰近平衡管理區（balancing authorities）的進口競爭，亦可能出現稀缺定價。

These factors result in favorable conditions for the earnings outlook for our Moss Landing battery facility and our co-located combined cycle plant, which has 1,020 megawatts of capacity. This is a tremendous site and a great example of our ability to invest in a disciplined way in Vistra Zero while also providing for the reliable and affordable energy customers need.

這些因素為我們 Moss Landing 電池設施以及同址的複循環電廠帶來有利的獲利前景；該電廠裝置容量為 1,020 兆瓦。這是一個極具價值的場址，也是一個很好的例子，展現我們能以嚴謹自律的方式投資 Vistra Zero，同時也能提供客戶所需的可靠且可負擔的能源。

Moving to Slide 7. The $1.008 billion of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA achieved this quarter was a result of strong performance by each of our generation, retail and commercial teams with retail achieving attractive counts and margin performance in all customer categories and our generation team delivering commercial availability of approximately 95%.

接著看第 7 頁。本季達成的 10.08 億美元持續營運調整後 EBITDA，來自我們發電、零售與商務團隊各自的強勁表現；其中零售在所有客戶類別均達成具吸引力的客戶數與毛利表現，而發電團隊的商業可用率約為 95%。

Our people are working hard in this extended high heat environment, and they continue to perform extremely well. When we originally announced 2023 guidance in the third quarter of last year, we estimated a range of $3.4 billion to $4.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations. As mentioned earlier, we are confident in our ability to deliver in the upper half of that range, leading us to formally update our guidance to reflect the new range of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations and a new range for adjusted free cash flow before growth.

在這段延長的高溫環境下，我們的同仁努力工作，並持續展現極佳的表現。當我們在去年第三季首次公布 2023 年指引時，我們估計持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的區間為 34 億至 40 億美元。如先前所述，我們有信心能達成該區間的上半部，因此我們正式更新指引，反映新的區間：持續營運調整後 EBITDA 為 36 億至 40 億美元，並同時更新成長前調整後自由現金流（adjusted free cash flow before growth）的新區間。

Of course, there is a lot of execution still to go in the balance of the year, and our people remain focused on delivering for our customers and our shareholders. Turning to Slide 8. I just wanted to reiterate that all 3 key agencies continue to work on the necessary approvals to close the Energy Harbor acquisition. We are working constructively with each agency and in all involved parties. And as I mentioned before, we continue to anticipate a fourth quarter closing.

當然，今年剩餘期間仍有許多執行工作要完成，而我們的同仁仍專注於為客戶與股東交付成果。接著看第 8 頁。我想再次重申，三家主要主管機關仍持續推進完成 Energy Harbor 收購案所需的核准程序。我們正與各主管機關及所有相關方以建設性的方式合作。正如我先前提到的，我們仍預期於第四季完成交割。

We believe Energy Harbor is a terrific transaction for Vistra. Adding a substantial amount of nuclear generation with the support of the production tax credit. We continue to expect significant contributions from Energy Harbor, including the opportunities for synergies. I think back to the announcement of the Dynegy acquisition when we projected annual ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.8 billion. Through the hard work of the Vistra and Dynegy teams and including the acquisition and successful integration of Crius and Ambit, together with the expected closing of Energy Harbor later this year, it is exciting that we could see ongoing adjusted EBITDA on average in the '24 to '25 timeframe of $4.5 billion, including synergies and out-year prospects potentially even higher. Kris, I'll now turn the call over to you to discuss our quarterly performance in more detail.

我們相信 Energy Harbor 對 Vistra 而言是一筆極佳的交易。在生產稅收抵免（production tax credit）的支持下，新增相當可觀的核能發電資產。我們仍預期 Energy Harbor 將帶來顯著貢獻，包括協同效益的機會。我回想起宣布收購 Dynegy 時，我們預估年度持續營運調整後 EBITDA 約為 28 億美元。透過 Vistra 與 Dynegy 團隊的努力，並包含收購及成功整合 Crius 與 Ambit，再加上預計於今年稍晚完成 Energy Harbor 交易，令人振奮的是，我們在 2024 至 2025 年期間的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 平均可能達到 45 億美元（包含協同效益），而在更長期的展望下甚至可能更高。Kris，接下來我把電話交給你，請你更詳細說明我們本季的表現。

Thank you, Jim. Starting on Slide 10, Vistra delivered $1.008 billion in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter including $ 510 million from generation and $498 million from retail. Generations results were favorable compared to the second quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher energy margin achieved through our comprehensive hedging strategy and as we did last quarter our ability to capture value by backing down generation in times when prices are below unit cost.

謝謝你，Jim。從第 10 頁投影片開始，Vistra 在第二季交出 10.08 億美元的持續營運調整後 EBITDA，其中發電業務貢獻 5.10 億美元，零售業務貢獻 4.98 億美元。發電業務的結果相較於 2022 年第二季更為有利，主要是因為我們透過全面性的避險策略取得較高的能源毛利；此外，如同上季一樣，當價格低於機組成本時，我們也能透過降低發電出力來捕捉價值。

Retail results were also favorable as compared to the second quarter 2022. While the segment was impacted by less favorable weather, this was more than offset by continued strong counts and margin performance. As I discussed last quarter, the entry year shaping that dampened the first quarter's earnings contribution to the overall year was offset as expected in the second quarter.

零售業務的結果相較於 2022 年第二季也更為有利。雖然該部門受到較不利天候的影響，但這已被持續強勁的客戶數量與毛利表現所抵銷。如同我在上季所提到的，進入年度（entry year）的負載形狀調整使第一季對全年獲利的貢獻受到抑制，而這項影響在第二季如預期般被抵銷。

Turning to Slide 11. As Jim mentioned, we have been consistently delivering on our capital allocation plan. As of August 4, we had executed approximately $2.9 billion of share repurchases since beginning the program in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to utilize the remaining approximately $1.35 billion of the total $4.25 billion authorization by year-end 2024.

轉到第 11 頁投影片。如 Jim 所提到的，我們一直穩健地落實資本配置計畫。截至 8 月 4 日，自 2021 年第四季啟動該計畫以來，我們已執行約 29 億美元的庫藏股回購。我們預期在 2024 年底前，使用總額 42.5 億美元授權中剩餘約 13.5 億美元的額度。

Notably, our outstanding share count has been reduced to approximately 367.5 million shares as of August 4, and an impressive approximately 24% reduction in the number of shares that were outstanding in November 2021. This meaningful and consistent share reduction has led to robust dividend growth. For example, the recently approved third quarter 2023 common stock dividend of $0.206 per share represents an increase of approximately 12% per share as compared to the dividend paid in the third quarter of 2022.

值得注意的是，截至 8 月 4 日，我們的流通在外股數已降至約 3.675 億股，較 2021 年 11 月的流通股數大幅減少約 24%。這項具意義且持續的減股，帶動了強勁的股利成長。例如，近期核准的 2023 年第三季普通股股利為每股 0.206 美元，較 2022 年第三季發放的股利每股增加約 12%。

Finally, as Jim mentioned, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and a disciplined approach to growth. We have fully allocated the net proceeds from the December 2021 green preferred stock issuance and are now turning to securing nonrecourse project or portfolio level financing to, among other things, support the growth CapEx needs of the company. We anticipate launching the first such financing in the coming months.

最後，如 Jim 所提到的，我們仍專注於維持強健的資產負債表以及審慎的成長策略。我們已將 2021 年 12 月綠色優先股發行的淨募集資金全數完成配置，接下來將著手取得無追索權（nonrecourse）的專案或投資組合層級融資，以在其他用途之外，支持公司成長資本支出（CapEx）的需求。我們預期在未來幾個月內啟動第一筆此類融資。

To wrap up, on Slide 12, we have provided an update on the out-year forward price curves as of August 4. As you can see, the forward curves continue to hold together well. Specifically, since our last call, we've seen forward curves increase in ERCOT in '24 and '25, increasing our confidence in our ability to achieve the previously disclosed $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities in those years.

總結來看，在第 12 頁投影片，我們提供了截至 8 月 4 日的遠期價格曲線（out-year forward price curves）更新。如各位所見，遠期曲線整體仍維持良好。具體而言，自上次電話會議以來，我們看到 ERCOT 在 2024 年與 2025 年的遠期曲線上升，提升了我們達成先前揭露之 2024 年與 2025 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 中位數機會區間 37 億至 38 億美元的信心。

As a reminder, we are significantly hedged in years 2023 through 2025, approximately 86% on average of expected generation across all markets, with the balance of 2023 expected generation hedged at approximately 98% and 2024 expected generation hedged at approximately 95%.

提醒各位，我們在 2023 至 2025 年期間已進行大幅避險，涵蓋所有市場的預期發電量平均約 86%；其中，2023 年剩餘期間的預期發電量避險比例約為 98%，2024 年的預期發電量避險比例約為 95%。

Finally, curves in the outer years continue to provide opportunities to lock in significant earnings, especially during times of scarcity. Our commercial team continues to work to derisk these opportunities by executing on our multiyear comprehensive hedging strategy which strategy continues to be supported by our standby liquidity facilities.

最後，外圍年度（outer years）的曲線仍持續提供鎖定可觀獲利的機會，尤其是在供應稀缺的時期。我們的商務團隊持續透過執行多年期的全面避險策略來降低這些機會的風險，而該策略也持續受到我們備用流動性融資安排的支持。

We are proud of the performance of our generation retail and commercial teams thus far this year and are excited to continue our work towards executing against our remaining 2023 goals and long-term strategic priorities as we translate that success into shareholder returns. We look forward to updating you on our progress on our third quarter call. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

我們為今年迄今發電、零售與商務團隊的表現感到自豪，也很期待持續推進，完成 2023 年剩餘目標與長期策略優先事項，並將這些成果轉化為股東報酬。我們期待在第三季電話會議向各位更新進展。接下來，接線員，我們準備開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。

First off, I guess you're now obviously the third IPP to report stronger retail margins. Could you just unpack a little more of what you saw this quarter kind of within the strength as we're thinking about optimization versus actual margin expansion and the degree to which, I guess, you guys see this as being durable?

首先，我想你們現在顯然是第三家回報零售毛利更強的 IPP。你能否再多拆解一下本季你們看到的強勁表現——在我們思考最佳化（optimization）相對於實際毛利擴張（actual margin expansion）時，各自的貢獻為何？以及你們認為這種情況在多大程度上是可持續的？

Sure. Shar, I'm going to start, and I'm actually going to have Scott Hudson give a little bit of perspective on the market dynamics as well. You realize last year, when we were in a climbing power environment due to the conflict that we saw with Russia, Ukraine and then the commodity curves moving up. So retailers, in general, were climbing the hill in 2022.

當然。Shar，我先回答，然後我也會請 Scott Hudson 就市場動態提供一些觀點。你也知道，去年因為我們看到俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突，加上商品曲線上移，電力環境走升。因此零售商整體而言在 2022 年都是在「爬坡」。

We started to see that obviously come off at the beginning of this year. And the team does a very nice job of looking at the multiyear nature of the contracts for large commercial, the 12-month to 24-month range for residential. And their objective, of course, is to have normalized margins. We tend to buy forward as a company. We try to normalize the experience for customers because our experience has been, if you move the customer's price too much. It's not the expectation that they had when they signed up with you. So even on renewals, we're careful about how we manage this.

我們在今年年初開始看到這種情況明顯回落。團隊在檢視合約時做得非常好：大型商業客戶合約具有多年期特性，住宅客戶則多落在 12 至 24 個月區間。他們的目標當然是維持常態化毛利。我們公司傾向於提前採購（buy forward）。我們試圖讓客戶的體驗更為平穩，因為我們的經驗是，如果你把客戶價格調整得太劇烈，那就不符合他們當初與你簽約時的預期。因此即便在續約時，我們也會謹慎管理。

So from a durability standpoint, the retail business has earned strong margins in volatile years and in stable years. And I think that's part of the brand power of the business is that we're not selling an index type product that's just floating with a spot price. We're actually taking some of that predictability risk by hedging forward and giving that benefit to the customer. So I feel very good about the durability. And I would -- Scott, I'd like for you to add about the market dynamics.

因此就可持續性而言，零售業務在市場波動的年份與穩定的年份都能賺取強勁毛利。我認為這也是該業務品牌力的一部分：我們不是在賣那種隨即期價格浮動的指數型產品。我們實際上透過提前避險承擔了一部分可預測性風險，並把這項好處提供給客戶。所以我對其可持續性非常有信心。我想——Scott，我也希望你補充一下市場動態。

Sure. Shar, thanks for the question. I would just add to what Jim said is that we've got multi-brands at play in the ERCOT market. And each of those brands are designed to attract a different customer segment. But -- in general, in ERCOT on the residential side, transactions remain at historical levels.

好的。Shar，謝謝你的問題。我補充 Jim 的說法：我們在 ERCOT 市場有多個品牌同時運作，而每個品牌都旨在吸引不同的客群。不過——整體而言，在 ERCOT 的住宅端，交易量仍維持在歷史水準。

So there are a lot of moves and switches and opportunities to win customers in the market -- this really reflects the health of the Texas market migrations to consumers to it. As Jim said, prices have come down materially compared to this time last year, and the number of offers in the market has increased as have the number of competitors in these markets.

因此市場上有很多搬遷、轉換與贏得客戶的機會——這其實反映了德州市場的健康程度，以及消費者向其遷移的趨勢。如 Jim 所說，與去年同期相比，價格已大幅下降，而市場上的報價數量增加，競爭者數量也增加。

So very robust. But I think where we're successful in both accounts on the margin side, is the differentiation of our products and services across those brands. So our summer campaign, this summer features 3 distinct products, seasonal discount product, the first to market time of use product and then also an electric vehicle product, which really is doing well on the gains and helping us mitigate [unit] losses as well.

所以市場非常活躍。但我認為我們之所以能在客戶數與毛利面都取得成功，關鍵在於我們在各品牌之間提供差異化的產品與服務。因此，我們今年夏季的行銷活動主打 3 項不同產品：季節性折扣產品、率先上市的分時電價（time of use）產品，以及電動車產品；其中電動車產品在新增客戶方面表現非常好，也幫助我們降低 [unit] 流失。

Yes. And -- and I would add, Shar, that the annual view for retail, that outlook has improved from when we originally set our guidance for 2023. As Kris noted, the Q1 to Q2 effect is more about the shaping of the cost of goods sold because retail will buy power according to the shape by month for the year. So the winter costs much higher than the spring, the summer costs are much higher than the fall and into December.

是的。而且——Shar，我還要補充，從零售的全年角度來看，該展望相較於我們最初設定 2023 年財測時已有所改善。如 Kris 所指出，第一季到第二季的影響更多是來自銷貨成本（cost of goods sold）的形狀調整，因為零售會依照全年各月份的用電形狀來採購電力。因此冬季成本遠高於春季，夏季成本遠高於秋季並延續到 12 月。

So we see that retail profitability much higher in our results in 2Q and 4Q. And we see less from retail in 1Q and 3Q. So I was giving you the annual view as to how I think about the durability, but there is a quarter-to-quarter difference because of how we buy power for retail, reflecting the shape of power costs. I hope that helps.

所以我們看到，在我們的結果中，零售獲利能力在第二季和第四季高得多。而在第一季和第三季，來自零售的貢獻較少。所以我先前給的是年度視角，說明我如何看待其持續性，但由於我們為零售採購電力的方式不同、反映電力成本曲線的形狀，因此季度之間會有差異。希望這能有所幫助。

No, it does. And that's helpful. And then just lastly, and I don't want to push too far but, such great color on '24 and '25. Can you just speak to how the EBITDA opportunity looks for '26 or at least the degree to which you've been able to hedge that far? And just maybe refresh us on the Energy Harbor EBITDA opportunity that far out. Are you still seeing things north of $900 million?

不，確實有幫助，而且很有用。最後一點，我不想追問太多，但你們對 2024 年和 2025 年的說明非常有內容。你能否談談 2026 年的 EBITDA 機會看起來如何，或至少你們能把避險做到多遠的程度？另外也請再幫我們更新一下，Energy Harbor 在那麼遠的期間的 EBITDA 機會。你們仍然看到超過 9 億美元嗎？

Yes, you bet. So Shar, we have obviously continued our progress of hedging. As we said we would, we consistently look for opportunities to -- to provide a predictable earnings stream. And so first of all, on '24, '25, we feel good about where we are from an outlook standpoint for Vistra standalone, and that's really the data that we are operating with here Shar.

是的，當然。Shar，我們顯然持續推進避險進度。正如我們所說，我們一貫尋找機會——提供可預測的獲利流。首先，就 2024 年、2025 年而言，從 Vistra 單體的展望角度來看，我們對目前的位置感到不錯，而這也正是我們在此與你討論所依據的資料，Shar。

We don't have a view into updates regarding Energy Harbor and how they look at the moment for '24, '25 because we're going through the regulatory process. And so we -- the data we have is more the data we had at the time of the announcement. And -- but our view is, because we're obviously in the market, and we view the curves, is that we're set up well for Vistra standalone for '24, '25. We still feel good about raising that range that we mentioned where it was originally $3.5 billion to $3.7 Billion. And now we're looking at $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion.

我們目前無法掌握 Energy Harbor 對 2024 年、2025 年的最新看法，因為我們正在走監管程序。因此，我們手上的資料更接近於宣布交易時的資料。不過我們的看法是——因為我們顯然在市場中，也在看遠期曲線——Vistra 單體在 2024 年、2025 年的布局是有利的。對於我們先前提到的區間上調，我們仍然感覺良好：原本是 35 億至 37 億美元，現在我們看的是 37 億至 38 億美元。

So I feel good about where we sit in terms of Vistra standalone. Energy Harbor, we noted had some out-of-the-money hedges at the time that we announced '24, '25. And so our view there was that on a combined basis, we were $4.35 billion or so on a combined basis, recognizing they had some hedges that were out of the money.

所以就 Vistra 單體而言，我對我們目前的位置感到不錯。至於 Energy Harbor，我們在宣布 2024 年、2025 年時提到，他們當時有一些價外避險（out-of-the-money hedges）。因此我們當時的看法是，在合併基礎上大約是 43.5 億美元左右，同時也考量到他們有一些價外避險。

We believe that there's an opportunity for our business because of our update that we gave because we were at $3.6 billion when we gave you the update for Vistra standalone. If we're at $3.75 billion now for Vistra standalone, again, being between $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion that puts the combined enterprise in that $4.45 billion to $4.5 billion range. So $4.5 billion on average in that '24, '25 timeframe.

我們認為，基於我們提供的更新，業務仍有機會。因為當我們就 Vistra 單體提供更新時，我們是 36 億美元。如果現在 Vistra 單體是 37.5 億美元——同樣是在 37 億到 38 億美元之間——那麼合併後企業就落在 44.5 億到 45 億美元的區間。因此在 2024 年、2025 年期間，平均大約是 45 億美元。

'26, we're pretty open still. In fact, I would say, Steve Muscato is here -- when we look at the markets, we look for opportunities. But when we last talked to you, we were seeing curves in AD Hub, for instance, in PJM that were pretty attractive. They were in sort of the $50 range. Those have come off now to about $44 in that 2026 timeframe, very close to the acquisition case that we announced.

至於 2026 年，我們仍然相當開放。事實上，我會說 Steve Muscato 也在這裡——當我們看市場時，我們會尋找機會。但上次和你們談時，我們看到例如 PJM 的 AD Hub 曲線相當有吸引力，大概在 50 美元左右。現在在 2026 年那個期間，已回落到約 44 美元，與我們宣布的收購情境非常接近。

So I think we're on track for that $900 million. The upside to that, for that piece would need some support from the '26 curve because we've seen that move around from $45 up to the low $50s and back to that sort of $44 range. And we're still pretty open.

所以我認為我們仍在朝著那 9 億美元的目標前進。若要在那一塊有上行空間，則需要 2026 年曲線提供一些支撐，因為我們看到它在 45 美元到 50 出頭之間來回波動，現在又回到約 44 美元的區間。而我們仍然相當開放。

We assume they're still open. Again, we don't know what hedging they've done for the long term. But I think $900 million is still a solid number for 2026 for Energy Harbor. And in terms of our business, Vistra standalone we've seen PJM come off. We've seen ERCOT come up. And ERCOT has come up, and it's been attractive and Steve, I'd be interested in you sharing some thoughts about how you have seen these markets unfold even in the last month or 2.

我們假設他們仍然是開放的。同樣地，我們不知道他們在長期做了哪些避險。但我認為，對 Energy Harbor 而言，2026 年 9 億美元仍是個扎實的數字。至於我們的業務，Vistra 單體方面我們看到 PJM 回落、ERCOT 上升。ERCOT 上升且頗具吸引力。Steve，我也想請你分享一些想法：即便在過去 1 到 2 個月，你看到這些市場是如何演變的。

Sure. We've seen ERCOT because of the heat that we've been experiencing and the periodic bouts of scarcity that have been kind of a routine issue here the last at least several weeks with the heat in Texas. It has rippled into the forward curves, and so fixed price is holding in there.

當然。我們看到 ERCOT 因為我們正在經歷的高溫，以及過去至少幾週在德州高溫下週期性出現、幾乎成為常態的供給稀缺狀況，已經傳導到遠期曲線，因此固定價格仍能維持在那個水準。

So we're able to hedge some of our solid fuel free. And we're also seeing sparks, to your point, Jim, expand as we move out into that period. And so we're opportunistically hedging ERCOT where available, as you can imagine. '26 is somewhat illiquid, but we are having some success open our retail and wholesale channels and increasing those hedge percentages when the opportunities present themselves.

因此我們能夠對部分穩健的燃料部位進行避險、且不需付出成本（free）。同時也如你所說，Jim，我們看到 spark spread 隨著時間推進到那個期間而擴大。因此在可行之處，我們會機會性地對 ERCOT 進行避險。你可以想像，2026 年的流動性較差，但我們透過零售與批發通路仍取得一些成果，並在機會出現時提高避險比例。

And of course, with the AD Hub and with Energy Harbor, we have some PTC support ultimately, Shar. We don't view it as meaningful because it's kind of -- all the curves are close to at the money right now on that, but that's one of the reasons the deal was attractive as well was the support to the downside if we had it. So -- thank you, Steve, for the and Scott, for the context on that. Shar, Thank you for the questions.

當然，關於 AD Hub 與 Energy Harbor，我們最終也有一些 PTC 的支撐，Shar。我們不認為那是很重大的因素，因為目前那部分的曲線大多接近平價（at the money），但這也是交易之所以有吸引力的原因之一：若真的發生，我們在下行面有支撐。所以——謝謝你，Steve，也謝謝 Scott 提供相關背景。Shar，謝謝你的提問。

The next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Michael Sullivan。

Thanks for all the color on those last couple of questions. Jim, I wanted to shift over to -- from the debt -- from the EBITDA side more to the debt side. Pro forma. I think, Jim, you were mentioning you did the PCAP and then you have some margin collateral posting coming back. Can you just give a better sense of like how much new debt you will ultimately have to issue and if that's changed from when you announced the deal and then what on a pro forma consolidated basis, where the debt is going from where you are today?

謝謝你們在前幾個問題提供的詳細說明。Jim，我想把焦點從債務——從 EBITDA 端轉到債務端，按備考（pro forma）來看。我想，Jim，你提到你們做了 PCAP，然後也有一些保證金抵押品（margin collateral）回流。你能否更清楚地說明，最終你們需要發行多少新增債務？這是否相較於宣布交易時有所改變？以及在備考合併基礎上，債務水準會從你們今天的位置變到哪裡？

Sure. Michael, I would say that the conditions, obviously, in terms of margin deposits and the return of cash has been pretty favorable this year. I'll turn it to Kris to talk about how that influences the way we think about financing Energy Harbor and the overall credit metrics and targets that we're looking at.

當然。Michael，我會說，今年在保證金存款與現金回流方面的條件顯然相當有利。我把問題交給 Kris，請他談談這如何影響我們對 Energy Harbor 融資方式的思考，以及我們關注的整體信用指標與目標。

Yes. Thanks, Michael, for the question. I'll put it into 2 buckets. As we -- when we announced the transaction, we had shown an assumption that we would use $600 million of cash and $2.6 billion of debt. And of course, we knew that there was going to be some more cash coming back from margin deposits or we expected to come back for margin deposits, but we wanted to be conservative and make sure that we maintain sufficient liquidity.

好的。Michael，謝謝你的問題。我把它分成兩個部分。當我們宣布這筆交易時，我們的假設是使用 6 億美元現金與 26 億美元債務。當然，我們也知道會有一些現金從保證金存款回流，或我們預期會從保證金存款回流，但我們希望保守一些，確保維持充足的流動性。

As we have settled those hedges throughout this year, that money has returned as expected. But that number also included a plan to do some nonrecourse financing at Vistra Zero, which we still intend to do. So I would say, over the balance of the year, there's really 2 different things that we're looking at. There's the acquisition financing. You can -- that has with the return of the margin deposits and the cash and the PCAPs transaction that has also returned cash.

隨著我們在今年陸續結算這些避險，那些資金如預期回流。不過，那個數字也包含了在 Vistra Zero 進行部分無追索權融資（nonrecourse financing）的計畫，我們仍打算執行。所以我會說，在今年剩餘期間，我們主要看兩件事：一是收購融資。你可以——隨著保證金存款回流、現金回流，以及 PCAP 交易也回收了現金。

That has brought that $2.6 billion down to again, assuming we go to the next stage on the nonrecourse financing, but that's probably brought that number down to $1 billion to $1.5 billion, somewhere in that range. And then -- and then we still have nonrecourse financing in the works that was in our plan. That was assumed in those numbers. And I think as we said in the remarks that we still expect to see a transaction in the coming months.

這使得那 26 億美元下降——同樣是假設我們進入無追索權融資的下一階段——但大概已把那個數字降到 10 億到 15 億美元之間，約在那個範圍。然後——然後我們仍有正在推進的無追索權融資，這原本就在我們的計畫中，也已反映在那些數字裡。我想正如我們在發言中所說，我們仍預期在未來幾個月看到一筆交易。

And so that will fill in the rest. We still have enough commitment that we're still being conservative with our -- the financing commitment that we have in place. But -- that's really it. And from a debt perspective, as we said, we're still targeting sub 3x.

因此那將把其餘部分補上。我們仍然有足夠的承諾，所以在我們——已到位的融資承諾方面，我們仍然保持保守。但——基本上就是這樣。從負債的角度來看，如同我們所說，我們仍以低於 3 倍為目標。

At the closing, I think we continue to believe that we're going to be just above that. And as we look forward through a combination of debt repurchases and increasing EBITDA, we think we can get to that sub 3x in the 2020 -- as early as 2024. Potentially leaking into the first part of 2025, but we don't see there being a long wait for us to get to the target levels that we're looking at.

在交割時，我認為我們仍然相信我們會略高於那個水準。而往前看，透過債務回購與 EBITDA 增長的組合，我們認為可以在 2020——最早在 2024 年達到低於 3 倍。可能會延伸到 2025 年初，但我們不認為要等很久才能達到我們所追求的目標水準。

Okay. I appreciate all the color there. And then maybe just on ERCOT looking forward here. Obviously, been pretty hot down there. What are you seeing in terms of just the grid holding up for the rest of the summer? And then thoughts on potential new build response later this year around the referendum vote.

好的。我很感謝你提供的所有細節。接著也許談談往前看的 ERCOT。顯然那邊最近相當炎熱。你們對於電網在今年夏季剩餘時間的承載情況看到了什麼？另外，關於今年稍晚公投投票前後，潛在的新建案反應，你們有什麼想法？

Yes, Michael, it's been a very active kind of last 3 weeks. I would say it's a daily area of focus for us. Steve would say it's a minute-by-minute focus. And that's really because the grid, as you know, in Texas, it's been a robust, low growth market. And the additional resources that have been added over the last 3 to 5 years have largely been wind and solar.

是的，Michael，過去 3 週非常活躍。我會說這是我們每天的重點關注領域。Steve 會說這是每分鐘的關注。這主要是因為你也知道，德州的電網一直是一個強韌、低成長的市場。而過去 3 到 5 年新增的資源大多是風電與太陽能。

The solar move has been consequential 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts year-over-year, which is helping that evening period, and we're getting to the point where solar is filling in that 6- to 8-hour range fairly well, and we're all focused on the winds ability to pick up where solar left off at that sort of 7:00 to 8:00 hour and beyond.

太陽能的增長影響很大，每年增加約 4,000 到 5,000 兆瓦，這有助於傍晚時段；我們也正逐步到達太陽能能相當好地填補 6 到 8 小時區間的程度。而我們都在關注風力是否能在大約 7:00 到 8:00 這個時段、以及之後，接續太陽能退場後的缺口。

A couple of good points is that earlier in June, while wind overall was lower in third -- in second quarter this year in ERCOT than last year. At peak times during this evening hours, wind actually when the grid was at 80,000 megawatts or higher, wind actually performed relatively well in the early part of the summer. We didn't see much price formation.

有幾個重點：6 月初，雖然今年 ERCOT 第二季的整體風力發電量低於去年，但在傍晚尖峰時段，當電網負載達到 80,000 兆瓦或更高時，風電在夏季初期其實表現相對不錯。我們沒有看到太多價格形成。

In July, late July and early August, we're starting to see that the wind in those periods of time is returning more to kind of normal expectations, and we're starting to see that tightness in those late evening hours -- and of course, we're talking about the marginal resource of wind or solar. That assumes nuclear, coal, gas are all operating the way they need to be. And that's we sometimes lose focus on that because that's the majority of the grid. The units are running hard. There's no end in sight for this heat that we're in. And so -- the team is doing a terrific job keeping these units online.

到了 7 月下旬與 8 月上旬，我們開始看到在那些時段的風力回到較接近正常預期，而我們也開始在深夜時段看到那種緊俏——當然，我們談的是邊際資源，也就是風或太陽能。這是建立在核能、燃煤、燃氣都按其應有方式運轉的前提之上。而我們有時會忽略這點，因為那才是電網的大宗。機組都在高負載運轉。這波高溫看不到盡頭。因此——團隊在讓這些機組維持在線方面做得非常出色。

And I would say, overall, the ERCOT grid and the operators have done a nice job keeping the grid supplied but there's an asymmetric risk to the upside on prices when you look at how tight the grid actually is, and we're starting to see those forwards in '24, '25, I think, start to reflect that there actually is meaningful supply-demand tightening that's occurring in ERCOT.

我會說，整體而言，ERCOT 電網與操作人員在維持供電方面做得很好；但當你看電網實際有多緊時，價格上行存在不對稱風險。我們也開始看到 2024、2025 年的遠期價格，我想，開始反映 ERCOT 確實正在發生顯著的供需收緊。

And as far as whether gas newbuild comes it's a 3-year process for the most part from the time you get started. And the loan referendum is in November, the PCM, which was part of the House Bill 1500, the Sunset bill, it has a net $1 billion cap that was inserted as part of that legislation. It could be several years to 3 years before that could be implemented, the PCM -- so there are a lot of variables that are moving at the moment that developers would have to get comfortable with in terms of are they seeing enough to build because the curves are still backwardated.

至於燃氣新建是否會出現，從你開始推動起算，多數情況下是一個 3 年的流程。貸款公投在 11 月；而 PCM（屬於眾議院第 1500 號法案、也就是 Sunset 法案的一部分）在該立法中被加入了 10 億美元的總額上限。PCM 可能需要數年、最多到 3 年才可能落地實施——因此目前有很多變數在變動，開發商必須在「是否看到足夠誘因去興建」這件事上感到安心，因為遠期曲線仍呈現逆價差。

Even though we're saying the curves have moved up in '24, '25 and we're working through it, ERCOT still has -- there's still an assumption in this market. It's going to get overbuilt or there's going to be a lot coming that's just going to be potentially supported by PTCs and create downward pressure on pricing. So I think it remains to be seen what kind of queue there's going to be for gas-fired generation, but there clearly was support in this legislative session to try to keep existing thermal generation and try to incentivize new.

即便我們說 2024、2025 年的曲線已上移、我們也正在消化這些變化，ERCOT 仍然——市場上仍有一種假設：會出現過度建置，或會有大量新增供給，可能由 PTC 支持，並對價格造成下行壓力。所以我認為燃氣發電會有多大的排隊量仍有待觀察，但在這次立法會期中，確實有支持去維持既有的火力發電，並嘗試激勵新增。

Not all stakeholders agreed on what the right solution is to do that, but at least there's recognition that those thermal resources existing and new are important. And that was a good outcome. But there's still a lot of work to do with the P&C and ERCOT and various stakeholder groups to get this over the finish line.

並非所有利害關係人都同意應採取什麼正確方案來達成這點，但至少大家已認知到既有與新增的火力資源都很重要。這是個好的結果。不過，仍有很多工作要與 P&C、ERCOT 以及各利害關係團體一起完成，才能把這件事推到終點。

The next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit on the conversation on the '24, '25, the $4.5 billion there. Can you elaborate a little bit on what the retail assumptions are there? I know Shar tried to get at this a little bit, but it seems like you're just collapsing the transaction in there. Ultimately come up with that new number in the mid-4s. How do you think about these other retail pieces there?

我想就 2024、2025 年那 45 億美元的討論再追問一下。你能否多談一些其中的零售端假設？我知道 Shar 試著問到一點，但看起來你們只是把交易折算進去，最後得到 40 多億中段的新數字。你們如何看待其中其他零售部分？

And ultimately, just also what were you alluding to on '26? I know you said it was quite open. Just what does that transpose into '26 if you can start to go there just quickly in terms of the puts and takes?

另外，關於你們提到的 2026 年，你們最終想表達的是什麼？我知道你說那一年很開放。如果你能快速談一下，這在 2026 年會如何轉換成具體影響（有哪些利多與利空）？

Sure. Well, if you look at our revised guidance for 2023 and you look at that sort of midpoint, if you take that and add the Energy Harbor numbers to it, that I'd shared with you for '24, '25, you're getting to that $4.5 billion number. And what we've seen in our business model, Julien, is because of where we've hedged and how we've been able to hedge, the realized kind of margin expectations are pretty flat from this kind of '23, '24, '25 timeframe.

當然。如果你看我們對 2023 年修訂後的指引，取其中位數，然後把我跟你分享的 2024、2025 年 Energy Harbor 的數字加上去，就會得到 45 億美元。Julien，從我們的商業模式來看，由於我們避險的位置以及避險的方式，我們對已實現的利潤率預期在 2023、2024、2025 這段期間大致相當平坦。

And the split between retail and gen might vary a little bit, but not materially. And I think that's one of the durable parts about our model is, and we saw it last year. And we're going to see it a little bit this year is that you may see a little bit of movement between retail and gen based on market conditions. But retail is very solid in this kind of $1 billion range over that horizon.

零售與發電（gen）之間的拆分可能會有些微變動，但不會有實質差異。我認為這也是我們模式中較具韌性的部分之一；我們去年就看到了，今年也會在某種程度上看到：你可能會因市場狀況而看到零售與發電之間有些移動，但在那個期間內，零售在約 10 億美元的區間非常穩健。

And I would expect the difference being the wholesale to get to that $3.8 billion. And that's actually, I think, one of the things that we've been excited to share is that the business is stable. Doesn't mean we're not working hard every day to hold on to it. I don't want to make it sound like just because we've hedged it, it's going to be realized. We have to deliver every single day on the business.

而我預期其餘差額會由批發端來補足，以達到 38 億美元。我想這其實也是我們很興奮想分享的一點：這個業務是穩定的。但這不代表我們不是每天都在努力維持它。我不想讓人覺得只要我們做了避險，就一定會實現。我們必須每天都把業務交付到位。

But the outlook is actually above where we were in May of last year when we announced it and stable, and we'll be adding Energy Harbor to it. And so that line of sight with those hedge percentages we feel really good about where we are in that '24, '25 timeframe. Certainly, '26 is more open.

但展望確實高於我們去年 5 月宣布時的水準，而且也很穩定；我們也會把 Energy Harbor 加進來。因此，憑藉那些避險比例，我們對 2024、2025 年這段期間的可視性非常有信心。當然，2026 年就更開放一些。

And as I mentioned earlier, ERCOT is looking favorable relative to the last time we talked, but PJM is down on fixed price power at this point in '26, but then we also have some PTC support for that -- for the Energy Harbor length. It doesn't look like ERCOT would be in that PTC range right now because of where the curves have moved up to. But we've got kind of geographic flexibility segment, flexibility in -- or I should say, diversification and how I think 2026 will play out.

如我先前提到的，相較於我們上次討論時，ERCOT 的情況看起來更有利；但在 2026 年這個時間點，PJM 的固定價格電力較弱。不過，我們也有一些 PTC 支持——用於 Energy Harbor 的期限。就目前曲線上移的程度來看，ERCOT 似乎不會落在那個 PTC 區間。但我們具備某種地理彈性、以及——或者我應該說，多元化配置，我認為這會影響 2026 年的走勢。

Got it. And if I can ask you to clarify your forward ERCOT expectations. I mean we've got a few different programs yet to be implemented, I suppose, is the procurement program, with a certain level of subsidy baked in there, coming, I suppose at some point. Curious on your sense of timing on that for any real impacts. And then related, we have other reserve programs yet to be fully implemented. I'd be curious on your initial assessment of some of these programs, like the dispatchable reserve strength?

了解。那如果我可以請你釐清一下你對 ERCOT 遠期的預期。我的意思是，我們還有幾個不同的方案尚待落實，我想其中之一是採購方案，裡面似乎內含一定程度的補貼，應該會在某個時間點推出。想請教你對其時程的看法，以及何時才會產生實質影響。然後相關地，我們還有其他備轉方案尚未完全實施。我也想聽聽你對其中一些方案的初步評估，例如可調度備轉強度（dispatchable reserve strength）？

Sure. I'll start. I think by subsidy, I think you're referring maybe to the loan program and the grants that could be coming Julien?

當然。我先開始。我想你說的補貼，可能是指貸款方案以及可能會推出的補助金（grants），Julien？

Yes.

是的。

So yes, that -- obviously, the referendum is in November. The initial amount that was shared as part of the bill was $10 billion, the amount that has been provided for in the budget is $5 billion -- and then the amount of the $5 billion that's going to be allocated to building new gas plants is unknown at this point.

所以是的——很明顯，公投在 11 月。法案最初對外分享的金額是 100 億美元，預算中實際編列的是 50 億美元——而這 50 億美元中將有多少會分配用於興建新的燃氣電廠，目前仍不清楚。

So let's say it's something in the $3 billion to $3.5 billion range potentially. When we've looked at the math, the 3% interest on a 60% loan to value, it can move your returns a couple of points. So it is helpful, but it does not make up for potentially missing revenue in a backwardated market. And that gets to your other point, which is do these other programs, whether it's an ORDC bridge, PCM being implemented, ECRS was just implemented. DRS will be implemented by the end of 2024. Do those cumulatively add a recognition of reliability for the assets that Ken provided?

所以假設可能是在 30 億到 35 億美元的區間。當我們做過數學推算後，以 60% 的貸款成數（loan to value）搭配 3% 利率，確實可以把報酬率提高幾個百分點。因此它是有幫助的，但在遠期曲線呈現逆價差（backwardated）的市場中，它無法彌補可能缺失的收入。這也回到你另一個問題：這些其他方案——不論是 ORDC 過渡機制（ORDC bridge）、PCM 的導入、ECRS 剛剛上線、DRS 將在 2024 年底前上線——它們加總起來，是否會對 Ken 所提到的資產可靠性給予認可？

And if so, can we get enough line of sight to build into that? And I think we don't know yet for us. I mean, we're still evaluating it. Steve, in terms of how the new ancillaries like ECRS and DRS, how you see that playing in ORDC bridge? Be interested in sharing your thoughts on how you see the market adapting to these.

如果是的話，我們能否有足夠的可視性把它納入投資決策？我想我們目前還不知道。就我們而言，我們仍在評估。Steve，就新的輔助服務（ancillaries）如 ECRS 和 DRS，你怎麼看它們在 ORDC 過渡機制中的作用？也想請你分享你認為市場會如何適應這些變化。

Sure. I think let's start with ECRS because it's the latest and we've actually seen how it's been implemented. And they're putting it in when I say they ERCOT is dispatching it only when critically needed. And so I think it's serving well from a reliability perspective in terms of keeping ERCOT out of an EEA situation.

當然。我想先從 ECRS 開始，因為它是最新的，而且我們其實已經看到它如何被實施。當我說「他們」時，是指 ERCOT 只在極度需要時才調度它。因此我認為，從可靠性角度來看，它在避免 ERCOT 進入 EEA 狀態方面運作良好。

But one of the other things I've seen is it hasn't necessarily impacted price formation too much. So I really think it gets into how ERCOT handles these reserve products. If they handle them in the way that they're designed, which is really when the grid is approaching tight conditions, and it's not necessarily used to -- for price formation which is what we're seeing so far. When I see ECRS dispatched, it's been on the very hot days, at the peak hours when needed, and it hasn't been very price suppressive. So we think it's working the way it's intended.

但我看到的另一件事是，它未必對價格形成造成太大影響。所以我認為關鍵在於 ERCOT 如何處理這些備轉產品。如果他們以其設計初衷來運用——也就是在電網接近吃緊時才使用——而不是把它用來影響價格形成（就目前我們看到的情況而言）。當我看到 ECRS 被調度時，通常是在非常炎熱的日子、需要的尖峰時段，而且它並沒有很明顯地壓抑價格。所以我們認為它正按預期運作。

And we'll have to see on these new reserves that they're putting in. But to the extent they use them in the same way as ECRS, I think we're in the best of both worlds where we're avoiding what I'll call emergency conditions on the grid, but we're still seeing very solid price formation when it does get tight.

至於他們正在導入的這些新備轉，還需要再觀察。但只要他們以與 ECRS 相同的方式使用，我認為我們就能兩全其美：一方面避免我所稱的電網緊急狀況，另一方面在供需吃緊時仍能看到非常扎實的價格形成。

And I think it's too early to call DRS at this point. I mean it's still early stage to think about that one. Julien. That was one of the ones that some certain stakeholders were pushing as kind of the market solution. And so I believe the PUC and ERCOT have enough tools that they can work with to try to build some incentives for existing and new assets to be recognized and rewarded for their reliability, including a firming requirement for assets that come on to the grid after January 1, '27 that they have to effectively be able to backstop the expected generation that they are committing to. Those were all the right, I think, concepts, it's just early stage for us to know at this point how that's going to affect prices.

而 DRS 現在下定論還太早。我的意思是，現在談那個還在早期階段。Julien。那是某些利害關係人推動、作為一種市場解方的方案之一。因此我相信 PUC 和 ERCOT 手上有足夠的工具可以運用，嘗試建立一些誘因，讓既有與新資產的可靠性被認可並獲得回報；其中也包括對於 2027 年 1 月 1 日之後併網的資產，要求其必須具備「補強」（firming）義務，也就是必須能有效支撐其所承諾的預期發電量。我認為這些概念都方向正確，只是對我們而言，現在還太早知道它將如何影響價格。

Right. Net-net, though, there does seem to be some kind of timing discrepancy between when these reserve programs come in and any ultimate effect of any kind of procurement program here?

對。不過整體來看，這些備轉方案上線的時間點，和任何採購方案最終產生效果的時間點之間，似乎確實存在某種時程落差？

I think so. The procurement program or the loan program and grant program alone, like I said, is marginally it's beneficial but it does not solve the broader problem that we entered the session trying to solve. And I think that's why we ended up with a menu of things.

我想是的。採購方案，或單就貸款方案與補助金方案而言，如我所說，它在邊際上是有利的，但它無法解決我們進入本次會期時試圖解決的更廣泛問題。我想這也是為什麼最後會形成一整套「菜單式」的措施。

And frankly, it's a ton of work for the Public Utility Commission and ERCOT to work through this. And they're going to have their plate more than full. I mean, there's real-time co-optimization that has to fit in there before even PCM. So there is a lot still to, I think, figure out and we'll obviously be active and work with the stakeholders involved to try to bring clarity to it. But yes, on a calendar basis, it's multiyear at this point.

坦白說，這對公共事業委員會（Public Utility Commission）和 ERCOT 來說是非常大量的工作要推進。他們的工作量將會爆滿。我的意思是，在 PCM 之前，還有即時共同最佳化（real-time co-optimization）必須先納入。因此仍有很多事情需要釐清；我們當然也會積極參與，並與相關利害關係人合作，努力把事情講清楚。但就行事曆而言，現在看起來是多年期的。

The next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Just on the -- just on the hedges, I think you answered part of my question in your prepared remarks. But the '22 to '25 hedges stayed at 86% and no change since the Q1 update call. Is that just you willing to stay more open given the market conditions? You mentioned the ERCOT curves. Or is it just more normal course of business and you're going to opportunistically hedge more? Just any thoughts there?

關於——關於避險，我想你在事先準備的發言中已回答了我部分問題。但 2022 到 2025 年的避險比例維持在 86%，自第一季更新電話會議以來沒有變化。這是因為在目前市場條件下你們願意保持更開放的部位嗎？你提到了 ERCOT 的曲線。還是說這只是較正常的日常作業，你們會伺機再增加避險？想聽聽你們的想法。

Yes, it's a very good question, Durgesh. I would say there's a combination of factors. One is -- we've actually added some length given that the curves have moved up. So that's a good thing. There's more hours in the money for the fleet. So that means there's actually more to hedge. That's ultimately a good thing.

是的，這是個非常好的問題，Durgesh。我會說這是多個因素的組合。第一個是——隨著曲線上移，我們其實增加了一些「長度」（length）。這是好事。機組有更多時數處於價內（in the money）。這代表實際上有更多需要去避險的量。從根本上說，這是好事。

And so when you look at the percentage, it's not a static amount of generation. So that's one element. The second element is that's as of 6/30 that we were giving you these percentages. We've continued to hedge since 6/30, particularly in the 2025 timeframe. I don't feel that where we sit working with our team that we feel '26 is at a place where you have to go lock it all in because of the dynamics we talked about earlier.

因此當你看那個百分比時，它不是固定不變的發電量。這是一個因素。第二個因素是，我們提供給你的這些百分比是截至 6/30 的數據。自 6/30 以來我們持續在做避險，特別是在 2025 年的期間。我不覺得以我們目前與團隊合作的狀態來看，2026 年已經到了必須全部鎖定的程度，因為我們前面談到的那些動態因素。

We think there's still upside in some of these markets, and we feel good about the visibility we've given for '24, '25, and we've got time to work on '26. So the curves, as I mentioned, in '26 for PJM had come down, ERCOT has gone up, but not anything that we need to go rush out and move materially on '26 at this stage.

我們認為這些市場仍有上行空間，而且我們對於 2024、2025 年所提供的能見度感到滿意；我們也還有時間處理 2026 年。正如我提到的，2026 年 PJM 的曲線已經下來了，ERCOT 則上去了，但還不到我們需要在這個階段就急著對 2026 年做出重大調整的程度。

How about just within that '23 to '25 period? I guess what the message here is that 86% should move higher as we get along here.

那在 2023 到 2025 這段期間內呢？我想這裡要傳達的訊息是，隨著時間推進，86% 應該會再往上走。

It's already higher since 6/30 Durgesh -- and so the '26 hasn't moved much, but we have moved up on '25, and we're nearly fully hedged obviously, for '24. So -- but these percentages do move because, again, being in the money means you have more hours to hedge because there's gross margin.

自 6/30 以來它已經更高了，Durgesh——所以 2026 年沒有太大變動，但我們在 2025 年確實提高了，而 2024 年我們顯然幾乎已經完全避險。所以——但這些百分比會變動，因為同樣地，處於價內代表你有更多時數可以避險，因為有毛利（gross margin）。

So the hedge percentage could drop, but your earnings forecast could go up as a function of just simply looking at the opportunity set. So some of it is just the timing and the fact that these curves do move around.

因此避險比例可能會下降，但你的獲利預測可能會上升，原因只是你在看機會集合（opportunity set）時所反映出的變化。所以其中一部分只是時間點，以及這些曲線確實會上下波動的事實。

Understood. And then, Jim, one of the questions we consistently get from investors. Obviously, as you look at the stock, right, I mean, since I believe you initiated this buyback program, it was Q3, Q4 '21 the stock was in mid-teens. You broke $30 today. Just your updated thoughts on capital allocation, share buyback versus growth opportunities. How are you thinking about all of that here as the stock hit $30?

了解。接著，Jim，我們一直從投資人那邊收到的一個問題。很明顯，當你看這檔股票時，對吧，我的意思是，自從我相信你啟動這個庫藏股回購計畫以來，那是在 2021 年第 3 季、第 4 季，股價還在十幾美元的區間。你們今天突破了 30 美元。想請教你對資本配置的最新看法：股票回購相較於成長機會。當股價來到 30 美元時，你們現在是如何思考這些？

Sure. Well, Durgesh, -- it is good to see that the stock has moved up. We view this as a long-term strategy when we initiated it, and we still feel that way. If you look at the stock price move, and this is a very imprecise science, but a good portion of the move, you could explain by virtue of the reduction in the share count and not necessarily seeing the enterprise value move that materially.

當然。嗯，Durgesh，——看到股價上漲是件好事。我們在啟動時就把它視為一項長期策略，而我們現在仍然這麼認為。如果你看股價的走勢，這其實是一門非常不精確的科學，但這波上漲中有相當一部分，可以用股數減少來解釋，而不一定是企業價值有那麼實質性的變動。

Now that's still a good thing for the existing shareholders, and it's an opportunity for existing shareholders that are effectively increasing their percentage of ownership in Vistra. I also believe that since the May timeframe of last year and where we are today, we have materially improved the earnings outlook of the company, which in theory, would result potentially in a multiple expansion.

這對現有股東仍然是好事，因為這等於讓現有股東在 Vistra 的持股比例有效提高。我也相信，從去年 5 月左右到今天，我們已經實質改善了公司的獲利展望，理論上可能會帶來估值倍數的擴張。

And we really haven't seen that much of a multiple expansion. And I'm not here to argue what the right multiple actually is. But I still feel there's recognition that I believe the market will continue to see as we put, I call it points on the board, delivering on our scorecard and our results.

但我們其實還沒有看到太多倍數擴張。我不是要在這裡爭論到底合理倍數是多少。但我仍然覺得，隨著我們持續——我稱之為在記分板上得分——交付我們的計分卡與成果，市場會持續看到並認可。

And at some point in time, when folks are comfortable that the earnings power is sustainable for the -- in the duration of a horizon beyond even the 2 to 3 years we talk about, you might actually see some multiple expansion. We're not really there yet. And so our capital allocation plan for the foreseeable future, and I would put that in partly the high-class problem if we have to revisit it.

而在某個時間點，當大家對獲利能力在——甚至超過我們所談的 2 到 3 年期間——更長的時間範圍內具備可持續性覺得安心時，你可能真的會看到一些倍數擴張。我們還沒到那一步。因此，在可預見的未來，我們的資本配置計畫會維持不變；如果需要重新檢視，我會說那部分算是「高級的煩惱」。

But we feel very good about the capital allocation plan, and we might lean in a little more aggressively on the pace of the buybacks if we continue to overperform and see where we are with our, obviously, cash needs to do that, fund Energy Harbor, which is our focus, is to get this transaction closed in the fourth quarter.

但我們對資本配置計畫感覺非常好；如果我們持續超預期表現，並且視我們的——很明顯——現金需求而定，我們可能會在回購節奏上更積極一些，同時也要為 Energy Harbor 提供資金；我們的重點是讓這筆交易在第四季完成交割。

And then we're being disciplined on the Vistra Zero projects. And when we're reflecting that. And we want our shareholders to be confident that we do things, and we do look at the buyback as an alternate use of capital relative to the growth options. So the growth options need to be attractive. And so we'll pace the Vistra Zero projects to make sure that we're hitting the best ones and not chasing just the renewable projects.

此外，我們在 Vistra Zero 專案上也保持紀律，並在反映這點。我們希望股東對我們的作為有信心；我們確實把回購視為相對於成長選項的另一種資本用途。因此，成長選項必須具吸引力。我們會調整 Vistra Zero 專案的推進節奏，確保我們挑選最好的專案，而不是只是追逐再生能源專案。

And I like our portfolio there. And we mentioned Moss 350 was an excellent project to bring online and an excellent job by the team. So capital allocation plan is intact, and we're excited to, I'd say, hit the gas pedal on the capital allocation plan because we think it's the right mix for our shareholders as well as our debt holders.

我也喜歡我們在那裡的投資組合。我們提到 Moss 350 是一個非常出色的上線專案，團隊也做得非常好。所以資本配置計畫維持不變；我們也很期待——我會說——在資本配置計畫上踩下油門，因為我們認為這對股東以及債權人而言都是正確的組合。

I would just add, obviously, you're talking about, as you mentioned, $30. We do as you would expect, internally have our own valuation of what management and the team feels like the stock is worth. And I think, as Jim said, we're still comfortable buying and potentially leaning in at these prices. And so it gives you a feel for where we think fair value is, and we're not there yet.

我再補充一下，顯然你提到 30 美元。如你所預期，我們內部對管理層與團隊認為股票的合理價值有自己的估值。我想如 Jim 所說，我們在這些價位仍然願意回購，並且可能更積極一些。因此，這也讓你感受到我們認為的公允價值大概在哪裡，而我們還沒到那個水準。

Got it. And congrats on solid execution here on several quarters.

了解。也恭喜你們連續幾季執行表現扎實。

The next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 David Arcaro。

Let's see. I was wondering, I noticed a decline in the CapEx for 2023 for solar and storage development. Wondering what's driving that. And then similarly, just looking out to the development plan, some of the in-service dates moved out for several of the solar and storage development projects. Wondering if you could give some color around that dynamic.

我想問一下，我注意到 2023 年太陽能與儲能開發的資本支出（CapEx）下滑。想了解是什麼因素驅動的。同樣地，往前看開發計畫，有幾個太陽能與儲能開發專案的投運日期往後移了。想請你們就這個變化提供一些說明。

Yes, absolutely. Those 2 are related, David. We have the Illinois coal to solar, we had the majority of that reduction that you see was some movement out of 2023 and into '24, '25. We're still working the procurement cycle with -- working with vendors on EPC and obviously, the equipment. And we're still working that process in Illinois.

是的，當然可以。David，這兩點是相關的。我們在伊利諾伊州的「燃煤轉太陽能」專案，你看到的資本支出下降主要來自於部分支出從 2023 年移到 2024、2025 年。我們仍在進行採購週期——與供應商就 EPC（工程、採購與施工）以及設備進行協作。我們在伊利諾伊州仍在推進這個流程。

So it's more just a deferral at this point for the coal to solar projects. And that was a -- that was about 2/3 of what was moving out. The other is, as I mentioned on a couple of previous calls, on the ERCOT solar, we're starting to see the solar hours kind of cannibalize the solar hours.

所以就目前而言，這更像是「燃煤轉太陽能」專案的遞延。那——那大約占移出的部分的 2/3。另一部分是，如我在前幾次電話會議提到的，在 ERCOT 的太陽能方面，我們開始看到太陽能時段有點「自我侵蝕」（太陽能時段互相稀釋）。

And so we'll move forward on solar projects with a PPA, but we're not going to move those in a merchant type model. And that really was the other part of what lowered the CapEx. Now as I've mentioned as well, we own these projects, the pacing of these, a project may not be ripe now, could be ripe 3 years from now, depending on market conditions and depending on how some of these rules played out that we talked about on one of the earlier questions, -- but that is really a reduction at this point this year, that's a deferral on the coal to solar.

因此，我們會在有 PPA（購電協議）的情況下推進太陽能專案，但不會以純商業（merchant）模式推進。這其實就是降低資本支出的另一個原因。另外如我也提過，我們擁有這些專案，推進節奏上，某個專案現在可能還不成熟，但三年後可能成熟，取決於市場狀況，以及取決於我們在前面某個問題談到的一些規則如何落地——但就今年而言，這個下降主要是「燃煤轉太陽能」的遞延。

But I would say in Texas Solar, but I would say next year, we're probably still in this kind of $600 million number. So we're not pushing the number down this year to then take the next year number up fully. We're showing the discipline because the Texas piece, in particular, is something that we want to keep a close eye on. So I think even for next year, you're going to see a development number for CapEx that's pretty close to this year.

但我會說，在德州太陽能方面，我會說明年我們大概仍會在這種約 6 億美元的水準。所以我們不是把今年的數字壓低，然後明年再把數字完全拉高。我們是在展現紀律，因為尤其是德州這一塊，是我們希望密切關注的。因此我認為即便到明年，你會看到開發型資本支出的數字與今年相當接近。

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. And I guess just maybe following on to that, how do you think of if there's or now maybe this is a little bit separately. I imagine if that growth CapEx number goes down, that was going to be largely financed with nonrecourse project financing anyway.

了解，了解，這很有幫助。我想再追問一下，你們怎麼看——如果成長型 CapEx 數字下降，我想那原本大多會透過無追索權的專案融資來籌資。

That's correct.

沒錯。

So we open up additional cash available for allocation at the overall Vistra entity?

所以這會讓 Vistra 整體母體層級有更多可用現金可以配置嗎？

You have that right. As we look at this, as we -- the amount of price (technical difficulty)

你說得對。當我們看這件事時，當我們——價格的幅度（技術問題）

And so, my question is, is it just like structural change that we see in retail margins? Again if only because of the higher cost of financing? Or is it just we are coming off from a really high priced power price environment and there is some pricing arbitrage between where we were and what's the current cost to serve these retail contracts?

所以，我的問題是：我們在零售利潤率上看到的是一種結構性變化嗎？同樣地，是否只是因為融資成本更高？還是說，我們只是從一個電價非常高的環境回落，而在我們當時的水準與目前服務這些零售合約的供電成本之間，存在一些定價套利？

Yes, there's a lot in your question, Angie. And I'll break it down into 2 big market distinctions. The ERCOT market is more of a scarcity driven market and we have seen in just the last 2 months, the volatility pick up and the cost that a retailer needs to be prepared to pay to ensure against that volatility has moved up. So you had the whole energy complex move up in '22. Then it started to come off earlier this year. Now we're having the actual scarcity of basically supply/demand tightening in ERCOT and we're starting to see the cost for swing, which is part of that full requirement particularly for residential that's very costly.

是的，你的問題涵蓋很多內容，Angie。我把它拆成兩個主要的市場差異。ERCOT 市場更偏向由稀缺性驅動；而且就在過去兩個月，我們看到波動性上升，零售商為了對沖這種波動所必須準備支付的成本也上升了。你在 2022 年看到整個能源複合體上行，之後在今年稍早開始回落。現在我們面臨的是 ERCOT 供需基本面收緊所帶來的實際稀缺性，我們開始看到「擺動成本」（swing cost）上升，這是完整供應要求的一部分，特別是對住宅用戶而言成本非常高。

Large commercial and industrial does not have as much of a swing aspect to its load profiles. So we are a very residential heavy retail book. We have a great LCI business but we are dominated from an earnings standpoint by our presence in residentials. So we manage that swing in the pricing for our customer. Scott Hudson has to provide for the fact that he's wearing full requirements risk in serving this load and we have the assets to back it up. And I think that's what's distinctive about our models is that we've got the base load, the intermediate and the peakers so that Steve Muscato and the team can fulfill.

大型商業與工業用戶的負載曲線沒有那麼強的擺動特性。因此，我們的零售組合非常偏住宅。我們有很好的 LCI 業務，但從獲利貢獻來看，我們主要由住宅市場的布局所主導。所以我們為客戶管理這種擺動定價。Scott Hudson 必須考量到，他在服務這些負載時承擔的是完整供應需求風險，而我們也有資產可以支撐。我認為這正是我們模式的獨特之處：我們有基載機組、中載機組以及尖峰機組，讓 Steve Muscato 和團隊能夠履約供應。

And so if there's any issue with did we get it just right on the quantity hedged, which hedging is always imperfect, we've got an opportunity between the retail and the gen side to balance each other out.

因此，如果在避險數量是否完全到位上有任何問題——而避險一向不可能完美——我們可以在零售端與發電端之間相互平衡、彼此對沖。

And ERCOT's where we're really seeing that volatility. In the other markets, it's been more gas driven and we've seen a general downward slope in the gas curves in these other markets. And retailers can expand margin in a declining gas and power cost environment. And they might see some compression in margins and are rising. I think some of the tailwind in 2023 in signing deals is based on the fact that if you signed deals in 2022 that were multi-year deals with large commercial, you might have had negative margins in the first year in 2022 because power costs were so high because you averaged the costs for the customer.

而我們真正看到那種波動性的地方是在 ERCOT。在其他市場，走勢更多是由天然氣驅動，而且我們看到這些其他市場的天然氣曲線整體呈現下行斜率。在天然氣與電力成本下行的環境中，零售商可以擴大利潤率；而在成本上升時，他們可能會看到利潤率受到擠壓。我認為 2023 年在簽約方面的一些順風，來自於這樣一個事實：如果你在 2022 年與大型商業客戶簽了多年期合約，因為你把成本對客戶做了平均分攤，2022 年第一年可能會出現負利潤率，因為當時電力成本非常高。

And then you would have seen positive margins in the out years. That's normalized now. You can now sign deals and see positive margins in '23, '24, '25. So that's part of the tailwind but this is a cyclical business and I think you've got to run it for the long term and you've got to set customer expectations around being predictable and not move them around too much as I mentioned earlier.

接著你會在後續年度看到正利潤率。現在這已經正常化了。你現在可以簽約，並在 2023、2024、2025 年看到正利潤率。所以這是部分順風因素，但這是一個景氣循環型的業務，我認為你必須以長期角度來經營，並且如我先前提到的，要把客戶的預期設定在「可預測」上，不要讓他們的價格或方案變動太大。

So those are the 2 dynamics I see in the market Scott. Is there anything you'd like to add to that?

所以，Scott，這就是我在市場上看到的兩個動態。你還有什麼想補充的嗎？

No, I think that's right Jim. I think the most dramatic change that we've seen year over year is residential customers in the midwest/northeast where it's a cyclic market, we just have an opportunity to bring on more customers digitally and online because of where the price to compare is.

沒有，我覺得你說得對，Jim。我認為我們年對年看到最顯著的變化，是在中西部／東北部的住宅客戶；那是一個循環型市場，因為「比較價格」（price to compare）所處的位置，我們有機會透過數位與線上方式帶來更多客戶。

The price to compare is still much higher.

「比較價格」仍然高得多。

Much higher. And our power costs are lower. But I think there was an extreme last year that that will stabilize over time but you really do have to think about these as very market specific and customer product and brand specific segments.

高得多。而我們的電力成本更低。不過我認為去年有一個極端情況，隨著時間推移會趨於穩定；但你確實必須把這些視為非常因市場而異、且依客戶、產品與品牌而異的細分市場。

And just one other question. So as we, I keep going back to the rising costs in financing but also strengthening of your stock even though there might be little to no margin expansion yet. If you were, I mean if you were to do another M&A transaction just talk to me, talk me through the financing of any potential deal. Again given the rising cost of financing you are seemingly dedicated to share buybacks. So again I'm just debating if you are of sufficient scale Pro Forma and Energy Harbor and if there are additional economies of scale to be had both from a operational perspective and a financing perspective that you would benefit from basically adding one more generation portfolio?

另外再問一個問題。當我們——我一直回到融資成本上升，但同時你們的股價走強，即使目前利潤率擴張可能很有限甚至沒有——如果你們要再做一筆併購交易，請跟我談談、帶我走一遍任何潛在交易的融資方式。再者，考量融資成本上升，而你們看起來也致力於股票回購。所以我在想：在把 Energy Harbor 納入後，以備考（Pro Forma）口徑你們是否已具備足夠規模？以及是否還有可取得的額外規模經濟——不論是營運面或融資面——使你們能從再增加一個發電資產組合中受益？

Sure. Angie, thank you. Always looking ahead. We are clearly focused on Energy Harbor and as Kris mentioned earlier we've got return of cash this year so it can help change what our financing needs are to close Energy Harbor transaction. We don't comment on nay potential M&A but I think we demonstrated that we keep an eye out and we have the right conversations to be aware of the opportunity set. And if there is an attractive one at the right price we'd be in a position to move. But I've also said and I said it on our Vistra standalone case, we like the Vistra standalone case at the time we announced Energy Harbor so we had to get comfortable that Energy Harbor would truly be accretive and a long-term good fit for our company. And we made that determination and were very excited about it.

當然。Angie，謝謝你。總是著眼未來。我們顯然專注於 Energy Harbor，而且如 Kris 先前提到的，我們今年有現金回饋（return of cash），這有助於改變我們為完成 Energy Harbor 交易所需的融資需求。我們不評論任何潛在的併購，但我認為我們已經展現出我們會留意機會，並進行適當的對話以掌握可行的機會集合。如果有具吸引力、且價格合適的標的，我們會有能力採取行動。不過我也說過——我在我們的 Vistra 單獨情境（standalone case）中也說過——在我們宣布 Energy Harbor 時，我們就喜歡 Vistra 單獨情境，因此我們必須確認 Energy Harbor 確實會帶來增益（accretive），並且長期而言非常適合我們公司。我們已做出這個判斷，並對此感到非常興奮。

We would use a similar lens on anything else and we still think the capital allocation plan which we kept intact through Energy Harbor. I think we still need to consider that in anything that we're doing that our shareholders are coming to expect that capital allocation plan that we'll execute on it. Kris any comments the financing markets and how we think about it? But that's sort of another step down the road even from this Energy Harbor transaction.

我們會用類似的視角來看任何其他機會；而我們仍然認為資本配置計畫——即使在 Energy Harbor 期間我們也維持不變——在我們做任何事情時都必須納入考量，因為股東已經開始期待我們的資本配置計畫，而我們也會執行它。Kris，對於融資市場以及我們如何思考這件事，你有什麼補充嗎？不過那可能是比這筆 Energy Harbor 交易更往後一步的議題。

Yes, Jim I would just add as we have talked about it is we have increased our forecasts for '24, '25 and as we see opportunities in 2026, one thing Angie to note and we'll more to say on this after the Energy Harbor closing. But we still have capital to allocate even above and beyond the minimum billion dollars a year of share repurchases that we've talked about and the $300 million of dividends and getting our debt where we need to get it to go and our renewables grow. So even beyond that we have a significant amount of cash and so we'll continue to make decisions and as I said we'll have more to say on it coming up.

是的，Jim。我只想補充：如我們一直在討論的，我們已上調對 2024、2025 年的預測，並且在我們看到 2026 年的機會時，Angie，有一點要注意——在 Energy Harbor 完成交割後，我們會就此再多說一些。但我們仍然有可配置的資本，甚至高於我們談到的每年至少 10 億美元的股票回購、3 億美元的股利，以及把負債降到我們需要的水準、並推動我們的再生能源成長。即便在這些之上，我們仍有相當可觀的現金，因此我們會持續做決策；如我所說，我們接下來會再多談一些。

But we'll continue to look at opportunities and that could be growth. It could be additional share repurchases. So that would dampen any financing that we have but we feel good about our ability to raise financing. We also have a -- we have created a currency with a Vistra Vision equity. We're not looking to use more of that but there could be a situation where that's -- that is available to the extent that it makes sense. So we have a lot of options and we'll continue to make sure that we're flexible as we go forward.

但我們會持續尋找機會，而那可能是成長，也可能是額外的股票回購。因此，這會降低我們對外部融資的需求，但我們對自身的融資能力感到樂觀。我們也有一個——我們已透過 Vistra Vision 股權建立了一種「貨幣」（currency）。我們不打算更多使用它，但在某些情況下，如果合理，它也可能可用。所以我們有很多選項，並會持續確保在往前走的過程中保持彈性。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話會議交回給總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke，請他做結語。

Thank you again for joining us on this call and sorry if the call dropped and you had to get on. But we really appreciate your interest in us and following how we're progressing and we look forward to talking to you hopefully if we see you on the road before the next quarter, and wish you a great summer. Thank you.

再次感謝各位參加本次電話會議，也很抱歉如果通話中斷、你們需要重新加入。但我們非常感謝大家對我們的關注，以及持續追蹤我們的進展。我們期待在下個季度之前，如果在路演（on the road）上見到各位，能再與大家交流，也祝各位有個美好的夏天。謝謝。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。