Vistra Corp (VST) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Vistra Second Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加瑞致達 2023 年第二季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁梅根·霍恩 (Meagan Horn)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our second quarter 2023 results. Today's discussion is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

早上好，感謝大家參加瑞致達的投資者網絡廣播，討論我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。今天的討論將通過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。在那裡，您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Moldovan Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天的電話會議由瑞致達總裁兼首席執行官吉姆·伯克 (Jim Burke) 主持。 Chris Moldovan Vistra 執行副總裁兼首席財務官。瑞致達其他高級管理人員將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on our call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation, all available on the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.

我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計原則財務指標的引用。新聞稿和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了與最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量標準的對賬，所有這些都可以在瑞致達網站的投資者關係部分找到。此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statement included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

此類前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者演示文稿幻燈片2 中包含的安全港聲明，其中解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、演示文稿中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非GAAP 財務數據的使用措施。謝謝。現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官吉姆·伯克 (Jim Burke)。

Thank you, Meagan. Good morning, and thank you all for joining our second quarter 2023 earnings call. The second quarter proved to be another strong 1 for the business as we delivered $1.8 billion in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Typically, we do not formally adjust our guidance ranges until after we get through the critical summer months. But based on performance to date and our forecast for the remainder of the year, we are confident in our ability to deliver in the upper half of the guidance ranges introduced on the third quarter earnings call last year.

謝謝你，梅根。早上好，感謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。事實證明，第二季度是我們業務的又一強勁表現，我們實現了 18 億美元的持續運營調整後 EBITDA。通常，直到度過關鍵的夏季月份之後，我們才會正式調整我們的指導範圍。但根據迄今為止的業績以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預測，我們對實現去年第三季度財報電話會議上提出的指導範圍的上半部分充滿信心。

Accordingly, we are narrowing that original range, which was $3.4 billion to $4.0 billion to a new range of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Looking beyond 2023, the market curves continue to support a strong, consistent outlook as well. Our commercial team is working to strategically lock in these opportunities employing comprehensive hedging strategies to provide better line of sight to our earnings over our planning horizon, which in turn allows us to plan for capital return to our shareholders that is consistent and predictable.

因此，我們將持續運營調整後 EBITDA 的原始範圍（34 億至 40 億美元）縮小到 36 億至 40 億美元的新範圍。展望 2023 年以後，市場曲線也繼續支持強勁、一致的前景。我們的商業團隊正在努力採用全面的對沖策略來戰略性地鎖定這些機會，以便在我們的規劃範圍內更好地了解我們的收益，這反過來又使我們能夠為股東提供一致且可預測的資本回報。

In addition, I'm proud of the great strides we are making in the expansion of Vistra's Zero carbon generation portfolio with our 350-megawatt addition to the Moss Landing energy storage facility that came online this quarter. I'll speak to that milestone momentarily, but first, I'd like to turn to Slide 5, where we once again highlight our 4 strategic priorities. I think it's important to continue to reiterate our focus on these priorities each quarter with some notable accomplishments as I believe these are critical to long-term value creation.

此外，我對我們在擴展瑞致達零碳發電產品組合方面取得的巨大進步感到自豪，我們在本季度上線的 Moss Landing 能源存儲設施中增加了 350 兆瓦的容量。我將暫時談到這個里程碑，但首先，我想轉向幻燈片 5，其中我們再次強調了我們的 4 個戰略重點。我認為重要的是繼續重申我們每個季度對這些優先事項的關注並取得一些顯著的成就，因為我相信這些對於長期價值創造至關重要。

This quarter saw continued strong generation and commercial team execution combined with our retail business that continues to deliver strong counts and margin performance. Vistra is proving it can consistently deliver substantial and resilient earnings in a variety of power price and weather conditions.

本季度，我們的發電和商業團隊執行力持續強勁，加上我們的零售業務繼續提供強勁的數量和利潤率表現。瑞致達正在證明其能夠在各種電價和天氣條件下持續提供可觀且有彈性的收益。

Just as last quarter, on average, we saw power prices this quarter clear lower than our realized hedge prices. This is highlighting the significant downside risk protection to our earnings at our comprehensive hedging strategy across the integrated business can and does consistently provide. These derisked consistent earnings give Vistra the confidence to announce aggressive shareholder return programs and then stick with those programs in amounts equal to or higher than those originally announced.

與上季度一樣，平均而言，我們看到本季度的電價明顯低於我們實現的對沖價格。這凸顯了我們跨綜合業務的全面對沖策略能夠而且確實始終如一地為我們的收益提供重大的下行風險保護。這些消除風險的持續盈利使瑞致達有信心宣布積極的股東回報計劃，然後以等於或高於最初宣布的金額堅持這些計劃。

I'll let Chris provide a detailed update on our capital allocation plan, but of the aggregate upsized $7.75 billion capital return plan we originally announced in November of 2021, we've already returned $3.35 billion through August 4, 2023, which is approximately $250 million ahead of the originally announced planned levels. We regularly evaluate how best to bring value to our shareholders, and we expect to continue buying back stock and paying dividends that grow each quarter based on a reduced share count.

我會讓Chris 提供有關我們資本分配計劃的詳細更新信息，但在我們最初於2021 年11 月宣布的總計77.5 億美元資本回報計劃中，截至2023 年8 月4 日我們已經回報了33.5 億美元，約合250 美元比最初宣布的計划水平提前了 100 萬元。我們定期評估如何最好地為股東帶來價值，我們預計將繼續回購股票並支付基於股票數量減少的每季度增長的股息。

Our balance sheet strength remains a top focus as well. You saw this quarter that we structured a $450 million PCAP transaction, which is unique in allowing us to post treasury securities as margin deposits, returning more cash to the balance sheet. We expect to utilize that cash plus the margin deposits that have been returned as expected as our hedges have settled throughout this year to fund a significant portion of the purchase price we expect to pay in the fourth quarter for Energy Harbor. Substantially reducing the amount of acquisition debt to be issued.

我們的資產負債表實力仍然是首要關注點。您看到本季度我們構建了 4.5 億美元的 PCAP 交易，該交易的獨特之處在於我們可以將國債作為保證金存款，從而將更多現金返還到資產負債表中。我們預計將利用這些現金加上我們今年全年的對沖結算已按預期返還的保證金存款，為我們預計在第四季度支付的能源港購買價格的很大一部分提供資金。大幅減少要發行的收購債務金額。

Finally, as it relates to our opportunities with the energy transition, in addition to the progress we are making on the Energy Harbor acquisition, which I'll speak to in a minute, I would like to turn to Slide 6 regarding our Moss Landing facility. The Vistra team did an excellent job in bringing online an additional 350 megawatts to add to the existing 400 megawatts at our Moss Landing site in California, which is the largest energy storage facility of its kind in the world.

最後，由於它與我們在能源轉型方面的機會有關，除了我們在能源港收購方面取得的進展（我稍後會談到）之外，我想轉向幻燈片 6 關於我們的 Moss Landing 設施。 Vistra 團隊表現出色，在加利福尼亞州 Moss Landing 站點現有的 400 兆瓦發電量基礎上，又增加了 350 兆瓦發電量，這是世界上同類能源存儲設施中最大的。

This addition came online ahead of schedule and on budget despite a challenging supply chain environment and extreme rainfall. This is now a total of 750 megawatts of energy storage backed by contracted revenues through our PG&E resource adequacy agreements. Importantly, we continue to see additional opportunities to add batteries to this site of the future. The facility is located in the CAISO Energy market, which is experiencing significantly higher gas price volatility as well as the potential for scarcity pricing due to high demand and import competition from the neighboring balancing authorities.

儘管供應鏈環境充滿挑戰且降雨量極大，但這一新增項目還是在預算內提前上線。目前，儲能容量總計為 750 兆瓦，由我們通過 PG&E 資源充足性協議獲得的合同收入提供支持。重要的是，我們繼續看到在未來的網站上添加電池的更多機會。該設施位於 CAISO 能源市場，該市場的天然氣價格波動性明顯較高，並且由於高需求和來自鄰近平衡機構的進口競爭而可能出現稀缺定價。

These factors result in favorable conditions for the earnings outlook for our Moss Landing battery facility and our co-located combined cycle plant, which has 1,020 megawatts of capacity. This is a tremendous site and a great example of our ability to invest in a disciplined way in Vistra Zero while also providing for the reliable and affordable energy customers need.

這些因素為我們的 Moss Landing 電池工廠和位於同一地點的聯合循環工廠（產能為 1,020 兆瓦）的盈利前景創造了有利條件。這是一個巨大的網站，也是我們以嚴格的方式投資瑞致達零能源的一個很好的例子，同時也提供客戶所需的可靠和負擔得起的能源。

Moving to Slide 7. The $1.008 billion, of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA achieved this quarter was a result of strong performance by each of our generation, retail and commercial teams with retail achieving attractive counts and margin performance in all customer categories and our generation team delivering commercial availability of approximately 95%.

轉向幻燈片7。本季度持續運營調整後EBITDA 實現10.08 億美元，這是我們每一代、零售和商業團隊強勁表現的結果，零售在所有客戶類別中實現了有吸引力的數量和利潤率表現，我們的一代團隊交付了商業可用性約為95%。

Our people are working hard in this extended high heat environment, and they continue to perform extremely well. When we originally announced 2023 guidance in the third quarter of last year, we estimated a range of $3.4 billion to $4.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations. As mentioned earlier, we are confident in our ability to deliver in the upper half of that range, leading us to formally update our guidance to reflect the new range of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations and a new range for adjusted free cash flow before growth.

我們的員工在這種持續的高溫環境中努力工作，並且繼續表現得非常出色。當我們最初在去年第三季度宣布 2023 年指引時，我們估計持續運營的調整後 EBITDA 範圍為 34 億至 40 億美元。如前所述，我們對實現該範圍上半部分的能力充滿信心，這促使我們正式更新我們的指導，以反映來自持續運營的調整後EBITDA 36 億至40 億美元的新範圍以及調整後的新範圍增長前的自由現金流。

Of course, there is a lot of execution still to go in the balance of the year, and our people remain focused on delivering for our customers and our shareholders. Turning to Slide 8. I just wanted to reiterate that all 3 key agencies continue to work on the necessary approvals to close the Energy Harbor acquisition. We are working constructively with each agency and in all involved parties. And as I mentioned before, we continue to anticipate a fourth quarter closing.

當然，今年剩下的時間裡還有很多執行工作要做，我們的員工仍然專注於為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。轉向幻燈片 8。我只是想重申，所有 3 個關鍵機構都在繼續努力獲得必要的批准，以完成能源港收購。我們正在與每個機構和所有相關方進行建設性合作。正如我之前提到的，我們繼續預計第四季度的結束。

We believe Energy Harbor is a terrific transaction for Vistra. Adding a substantial amount of nuclear generation with the support of the production tax credit. We continue to expect significant contributions from Energy Harbor, including the opportunities for synergies. I think back to the announcement of the Dynegy acquisition when we projected annual ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.8 billion. Through the hard work of the Vistra and Dynegy teams and including the acquisition and successful integration of Crius and Ambit, together with the expected closing of Energy Harbor later this year, it is exciting that we could see ongoing adjusted EBITDA on average in the '24 to '25 time frame of $4.5 billion, including synergies and out-year prospects potentially even higher. Kris, I'll now turn the call over to you to discuss our quarterly performance in more detail.

我們相信能源港對於瑞致達來說是一筆了不起的交易。在生產稅收抵免的支持下增加大量核電。我們繼續期望能源港做出重大貢獻，包括協同效應的機會。我回想起收購 Dynegy 的消息，當時我們預計年度持續運營調整後 EBITDA 約為 28 億美元。通過Vistra 和Dynegy 團隊的辛勤工作，包括對Crius 和Ambit 的收購和成功整合，再加上能源港預計將於今年晚些時候關閉，令人興奮的是我們可以看到24 年持續調整後的平均EBITDA到 25 年的時間框架為 45 億美元，包括協同效應和可能更高的全年前景。克里斯，我現在將電話轉給您，更詳細地討論我們的季度業績。

Thank you, Jim. Starting on Slide 10, Vistra delivered $1.008 billion of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter including $ 510 million from generation and $498 million from retail. Generations results were favorable compared to the second quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher energy margin achieved through our comprehensive hedging strategy and as we did last quarter our ability to capture value by backing down generation in times when prices are below unit cost.

謝謝你，吉姆。從幻燈片 10 開始，瑞致達在第二季度實現了 10.08 億美元的持續運營調整後 EBITDA，其中 5.1 億美元來自發電，4.98 億美元來自零售。與2022 年第二季度相比，發電業績良好，主要是由於我們通過全面的對沖策略實現了更高的能源利潤率，而且正如我們上季度所做的那樣，我們有能力在價格低於單位成本時通過減少發電量來獲取價值。

Retail results were also favorable as compared to the second quarter 2022. While the segment was impacted by less favorable weather, this was more than offset by continued strong counts and margin performance. As I discussed last quarter, the entry year shaping that dampened the first quarter's earnings contribution to the overall year was offset as expected in the second quarter.

與 2022 年第二季度相比，零售業績也不錯。雖然該部門受到不利天氣的影響，但持續強勁的數量和利潤率表現足以抵消這一影響。正如我在上個季度討論的那樣，影響第一季度對全年盈利貢獻的進入年度調整在第二季度得到了預期的抵消。

Turning to Slide 11. As Jim mentioned, we have been consistently delivering on our capital allocation plan. As of August 4, we had executed approximately $2.9 billion of share repurchases since beginning the program in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to utilize the remaining approximately $1.35 billion of the total $4.25 billion authorization by year-end 2024.

轉向幻燈片 11。正如吉姆提到的，我們一直在堅持執行我們的資本配置計劃。自2021 年第四季度啟動該計劃以來，截至8 月4 日，我們已執行了約29 億美元的股票回購。我們預計到2024 年底，將使用42.5 億美元授權總額中剩餘的約13.5 億美元。

Notably, our outstanding share count has been reduced to approximately 367.5 million shares as of August 4, and an impressive approximately 24% reduction in the number of shares that were outstanding in November 2021. This meaningful and consistent share reduction has led to robust dividend growth. For example, the recently approved third quarter 2023 common stock dividend of $0.2060 per share represents an increase of approximately 12% per share as compared to the dividend paid in the third quarter of 2022.

值得注意的是，截至8 月4 日，我們的流通股數量已減少至約3.675 億股，2021 年11 月流通股數量減少了約24%，令人印象深刻。這種有意義且持續的股份減少帶來了強勁的股息增長。例如，最近批准的 2023 年第三季度普通股股息為每股 0.2060 美元，與 2022 年第三季度支付的股息相比，每股增加約 12%。

Finally, as Jim mentioned, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and a disciplined approach to growth. We have fully allocated the net proceeds from the December 2021 green preferred stock issuance and are now turning to securing nonrecourse project or portfolio level financing to, among other things, support the growth CapEx needs of the company. We anticipate launching the first such financing in the coming months.

最後，正如吉姆提到的，我們仍然專注於維持強勁的資產負債表和嚴格的增長方式。我們已全額分配 2021 年 12 月發行綠色優先股的淨收益，現在正轉向尋求無追索權項目或投資組合級別融資，以支持公司增長的資本支出需求。我們預計將在未來幾個月內啟動首筆此類融資。

To wrap up, on Slide 12, we have provided an update on the out-year forward price curves as of August 4. As you can see, the forward curves continue to hold together well. Specifically, since our last call, we've seen forward curves increase in ERCOT in '24 and '25, increasing our confidence in our ability to achieve the previously disclosed $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities in those years.

最後，在幻燈片 12 上，我們提供了截至 8 月 4 日的年外遠期價格曲線的更新。如您所見，遠期曲線繼續保持良好狀態。具體來說，自上次電話會議以來，我們看到ERCOT 的遠期曲線在24 年和25 年有所增加，這增強了我們對實現先前披露的37 億至38 億美元持續運營調整EBITDA 中點機會的信心。

As a reminder, we are significantly hedged in years 2023 through 2025, approximately 86% on average of expected generation across all markets, with the balance of 2023 expected generation hedged at approximately 98% and 2024 expected generation hedged at approximately 95%.

提醒一下，我們在2023 年至2025 年期間進行了大量對沖，所有市場的預期發電量平均約為86%，其中2023 年預期發電量的餘額對沖約為98%，2024 年預期發電量的對沖約為95%。

Finally, curves in the outer years continue to provide opportunities to lock in significant earnings, especially during times of scarcity. Our commercial team continues to work to derisk these opportunities by executing on our multiyear comprehensive hedging strategy which strategy continues to be supported by our standby liquidity facilities.

最後，外部年份的曲線繼續提供鎖定可觀收益的機會，尤其是在稀缺時期。我們的商業團隊繼續努力通過執行我們的多年綜合對沖策略來消除這些機會的風險，該策略繼續得到我們的備用流動性設施的支持。

We are proud of the performance of our generation retail and commercial teams thus far this year and are excited to continue our work towards executing against our remaining 2023 goals and long-term strategic priorities as we translate that success into shareholder returns. We look forward to updating you on our progress on our third quarter call. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

我們對今年迄今為止我們這一代零售和商業團隊的表現感到自豪，並很高興繼續努力執行我們剩餘的 2023 年目標和長期戰略重點，因為我們將這一成功轉化為股東回報。我們期待在第三季度電話會議上向您通報最新進展情況。接線員，我們就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Shar Pourreza 與 Guggenheim Partners 的線路。

First off, I guess you're now obviously the third IPP to report stronger retail margins. Could you just unpack a little more of what you saw this quarter kind of within the strength as we're thinking about optimization versus actual margin expansion and the degree to which, I guess, you guys see this as being durable.

首先，我想您現在顯然是第三個報告零售利潤率更高的 IPP。當我們考慮優化與實際利潤擴張以及我猜你們認為這是持久的程度時，您能否在本季度的實力範圍內更多地了解一下您所看到的情況。

Sure. Shar, I'm going to start, and I'm actually going to have Scott Hudson give a little bit of perspective on the market dynamics as well. As you realized last year, we were in a climbing power environment due to the conflict that we saw with Russia, Ukraine and then the commodity curves moving up. So retailers, in general, were climbing the hill in 2022.

當然。 Shar，我要開始了，實際上我也會讓 Scott Hudson 就市場動態發表一些看法。正如您去年意識到的那樣，由於我們與俄羅斯、烏克蘭的衝突以及大宗商品曲線的上升，我們正處於不斷攀升的電力環境中。因此，總體而言，零售商將在 2022 年攀登高峰。

We started to see that obviously come off at the beginning of this year. And the team does a very nice job of looking at the multiyear nature of the contracts for large commercial, the 12-month to 24-month range for residential. And their objective, of course, is to have normalized margins. We tend to buy forward as a company. We try to normalize the experience for customers because our experience has been, if you move the customer's price too much. It's not the expectation that they had when they signed up with you. So even on renewals, we're careful about how we manage this.

今年年初我們開始看到這種情況明顯消失。該團隊在研究大型商業合同的多年性質以及住宅合同的 12 個月至 24 個月範圍方面做得非常好。當然，他們的目標是實現利潤率標準化。作為一家公司，我們傾向於遠期購買。我們試圖使客戶的體驗正常化，因為我們的經驗是，如果你將客戶的價格調整得太多。這不是他們與您簽約時的期望。因此，即使在續訂​​方面，我們也會謹慎對待如何管理。

So from a durability standpoint, the retail business has earned strong margins in volatile years and in stable years. And I think that's part of the brand power of the business is that we're not selling an index type product that's just floating with a spot price. We're actually taking some of that predictability risk by hedging forward and giving that benefit to the customer. So I feel very good about the durability. And I would -- Scott, I'd like for you to add about the market dynamics.

因此，從持久性的角度來看，零售業務在波動年份和穩定年份都獲得了強勁的利潤。我認為該業務品牌力量的一部分是我們不銷售僅隨現貨價格浮動的指數型產品。實際上，我們通過對沖並為客戶帶來好處來承擔一些可預測性風險。所以我對耐用性感覺非常好。我想——斯科特，我想讓你補充一下市場動態。

Sure. Shar, thanks for the question. I would just add to what Jim said is that we've got multi-brands at play in the ERCOT market. And each of those brands are designed to attract a different customer segment. But -- in general, in ERCOT on the residential side, transactions remain at historical levels.

當然。莎爾，謝謝你的提問。我想補充一下 Jim 所說的，我們在 ERCOT 市場上有多個品牌在發揮作用。每個品牌都旨在吸引不同的客戶群。但是，總的來說，在 ERCOT 住宅方面，交易量仍保持在歷史水平。

So there are a lot of moves and switches and opportunities to win customers in the market -- this really reflects the health of the Texas market migrations to consumers to it. As Jim said, prices have come down materially compared to this time last year, and the number of offers in the market has increased as have the number of competitors in these markets.

因此，市場上有很多舉措、轉換和贏得客戶的機會——這確實反映了德克薩斯州市場向消費者遷移的健康狀況。正如吉姆所說，與去年同期相比，價格已大幅下降，市場上的報價數量以及這些市場中的競爭對手數量均有所增加。

So very robust. But I think where we're successful in both accounts and the margin side, is the differentiation of our products and services across those brands. So our summer campaign, this summer features 3 distinct products, seasonal discount product, the first to market time of use product and then also in electric vehicle product, which really is doing well on the gains and helping us mitigate losses as well.

所以非常堅固。但我認為我們在客戶和利潤方面都取得成功的地方在於我們的產品和服務在這些品牌中的差異化。因此，我們的夏季活動，今年夏天有 3 種不同的產品，季節性折扣產品，首次上市使用時間產品，然後還有電動汽車產品，這確實在收益方面表現良好，也幫助我們減少了損失。

Yes. And -- and I would add, Shar, that the annual view for retail, that outlook has improved from when we originally set our guidance for 2023. As Chris noted, the Q1 to Q2 effect is more about the shaping of the cost of goods sold because retail will buy power according to the shape by month for the year. So the winter costs much higher than the spring, the summer costs are much higher than the fall and into December.

是的。而且，Shar，我想補充一點，零售業的年度前景比我們最初設定2023 年指導時有所改善。正如Chris 指出的那樣，第一季度到第二季度的影響更多地與商品成本的形成有關出售是因為散戶會根據當年的形狀按月購買電力。因此，冬季成本比春季高得多，夏季成本比秋季和十二月高得多。

So we see that retail profitability much higher in our results in 2Q and 4Q. And we see less from retail in 1Q and 3Q. So I was giving you the annual view as to how I think about the durability, but there is a quarter-to-quarter difference because of how we buy power for retail, reflecting the shape of power costs. I hope that helps.

因此，我們在第二季度和第四季度的業績中看到零售盈利能力要高得多。我們看到第一季度和第三季度的零售量有所減少。因此，我向您提供了關於我如何看待耐用性的年度觀點，但由於我們如何購買零售電力，反映了電力成本的形狀，因此存在季度差異。我希望這有幫助。

No, it does. And that's helpful. And then just lastly, and I don't want to push too far but, such great color on '24 and '25. Can you just speak to how the EBITDA opportunity looks for '26 or at least the degree to which you've been able to hedge that far? And just maybe refresh us on the Energy Harbor EBITDA opportunity that far out. Are you still seeing things north of $900 million?

不，確實如此。這很有幫助。最後，我不想太過分，但是，'24 和 '25 的色彩如此出色。您能否談談 26 年的 EBITDA 機會如何，或者至少您迄今為止能夠對沖的程度如何？也許只是讓我們重新認識能源港 EBITDA 的機會。您還看到超過 9 億美元的資金嗎？

Yes, you bet. So Shar, we have obviously continued our progress of hedging. As we said we would, we consistently look for opportunities to -- to provide a predictable earnings stream. And so first of all, on '24, '25, we feel good about where we are from an outlook standpoint for Vistra stand-alone, and that's really the data that we are operating with here Shar.

是的，你敢打賭。所以，Shar，我們顯然在繼續進行對沖。正如我們所說，我們會不斷尋找機會——提供可預測的收入流。首先，在 24 年、25 年，從 Vistra 獨立的前景角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意，這確實是我們在這裡使用的數據，Shar。

We don't have a view into updates regarding Energy Harbor and how they look at the moment for '24, '25 because we're going through the regulatory process. And so we -- the data we have is more the data we had at the time of the announcement. And -- but our view is, because we're obviously in the market, and we view the curves, is that we're set up well for Vistra stand-alone for '24, '25. We still feel good about raising that range that we mentioned where it was originally $3.5 billion to $3.7 Billion. And now we're looking at $3.7 Billion, $3.8 billion.

我們不了解有關能源港的最新情況以及他們對 24、25 年的看法，因為我們正在經歷監管流程。所以我們——我們擁有的數據更多的是我們在宣佈時擁有的數據。而且 - 但我們的觀點是，因為我們顯然在市場上，而且我們看到了曲線，我們已經為瑞致達在 24 年和 25 年的獨立做好了準備。我們仍然對提高我們提到的最初 35 億美元至 37 億美元的範圍感到滿意。現在我們的目標是 37 億美元、38 億美元。

So I feel good about where we sit in terms of Vistra stand-alone. Energy Harbor, we noted had some out-of-the-money hedges at the time that we announced '24, '25. And so our view there was that on a combined basis, we were 4.35 or so on a combined basis, recognizing they had some hedges that were out of the money.

因此，我對瑞致達的獨立地位感到滿意。我們注意到，在我們宣布“24”、“25”時，能源港有一些價外對沖。因此，我們的觀點是，在綜合基礎上，我們的綜合價值約為 4.35，因為我們認識到他們有一些價外的對沖。

We believe that there's an opportunity for our business because of our update that we gave because we were at $3.6 billion when we gave you the update for Vistra stand-alone. If we're at $3.75 billion now for Vistra standalone, again, being between $3.7 Billion, $3.8 billion that puts the combined enterprise in that $4.45 billion to $4.5 billion range. So $4.5 billion on average in that '24, '25 time frame.

我們相信，由於我們提供的更新，我們的業務有機會，因為當我們向您提供 Vistra 獨立更新時，我們的資產為 36 億美元。如果我們現在瑞致達的獨立資產為 37.5 億美元，那麼，在 37 億美元至 38 億美元之間，合併後的企業將在 44.5 億美元至 45 億美元之間。因此，在 24 年、25 年期間，平均收入為 45 億美元。

'26, we're pretty open still. In fact, I would say, Steve Muscato is here -- when we look at the markets, we look for opportunities. But when we last talked to you, we were seeing curves in AD Hub, for instance, in PJM that were pretty attractive. They were in sort of the $50 range. Those have come off now to about $44 in that 2026 time frame, very close to the acquisition case that we announced.

'26，我們仍然很開放。事實上，我想說，史蒂夫·穆斯卡托就在這裡——當我們審視市場時，我們尋找機會。但當我們上次與您交談時，我們看到 AD Hub 中的曲線非常有吸引力，例如 PJM 中的曲線。它們的價格在 50 美元左右。在 2026 年的時間範圍內，這些價格現已降至 44 美元左右，非常接近我們宣布的收購案例。

So I think we're on track for that $900 million. The upside to that, for that piece would need some support from the '26 curve because we've seen that move around from $45 up to the low 50s and back to that sort of $44 range. And we're still pretty open.

所以我認為我們有望實現 9 億美元。有利的一面是，這部分需要 26 曲線的一些支撐，因為我們已經看到它從 45 美元上升到 50 美元的低點，然後回到 44 美元的範圍。我們仍然非常開放。

We assume they're still open. Again, we don't know what hedging they've done for the long term. But I think $900 million is still a solid number for 2026 for Energy Harbor. And in terms of our business, Vistra stand-alone we've seen PJM come off. We've seen ERCOT come up. And ERCOT has come up, and it's been attractive and Steve, I'd be interested in you sharing some thoughts about how you have seen these markets unfold even in the last month or 2.

我們假設它們仍然開放。同樣，我們不知道他們做了什麼長期對沖。但我認為 2026 年對於能源港來說 9 億美元仍然是一個可靠的數字。就我們的業務而言，瑞致達 (Vistra) 的獨立業務已經讓 PJM 表現不佳。我們已經看到 ERCOT 的出現。 ERCOT 已經出現，它很有吸引力，史蒂夫，我有興趣讓你分享一些關於你如何看待這些市場發展的想法，即使是在過去的一兩個月裡。

Sure. We've seen ERCOT because of the heat that we've been experiencing and the periodic bouts of scarcity that have been kind of a routine issue here in the last at least several weeks with the heat in Texas. It has rippled into the forward curves, and so fixed price is holding in there.

當然。我們之所以看到ERCOT，是因為我們經歷了高溫，而且週期性的物資短缺在過去至少幾週的德克薩斯州高溫天氣中已經成為一種常見問題。它已經波及遠期曲線，因此固定價格保持不變。

So we're able to hedge some of our solid fuel free. And we're also seeing sparks, to your point, Jim, expand as we move out into that period. And so we're opportunistically hedging ERCOT where available, as you can imagine, '26 is somewhat illiquid, but we are having some success open our retail and wholesale channels and increasing those hedge percentages when the opportunities present themselves.

因此，我們能夠對沖一些無固體燃料的風險。就你的觀點而言，吉姆，我們還看到隨著我們進入那個時期，火花不斷擴大。因此，我們會在可用的情況下對沖ERCOT，正如您可以想像的那樣，'26 有點缺乏流動性，但我們在開放零售和批發渠道方面取得了一些成功，並在機會出現時增加了這些對沖百分比。

And of course, with the AD hub and with Energy Harbor, we have some PTC support ultimately, Shar, we don't view it as meaningful because it's kind of -- all the curves are close to at the money right now on that, but that's 1 of the reasons the deal was attractive as well was the support to the downside if we had it. So -- thank you, Steve, for the and Scott, for the context on that.

當然，通過 AD 中心和 Energy Harbor，我們最終得到了一些 PTC 的支持，Shar，我們認為它沒有意義，因為它有點——所有曲線現在都接近金錢，但這也是該交易有吸引力的原因之一，也是如果我們擁有它的話，對下行趨勢的支撐。所以，謝謝史蒂夫和斯科特提供的背景信息。

Sure. Thank you for the questions.

當然。謝謝你的提問。

The next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁克爾·沙利文。

The color on those last couple of questions. Jim, I wanted to shift over to -- from the debt -- from the EBITDA side more to the debt side. pro forma. I think, Jim, you were mentioning you did the PCAP and then you have some margin collateral posting coming back -- can you just give a better sense of like how much new debt you will ultimately have to issue and if that's changed from when you announced the deal and then what on a pro forma consolidated basis, where the debt is going from where you are today?

最後幾個問題的顏色。吉姆，我想從債務方面轉向——從 EBITDA 方面更多地轉向債務方面。備考。我想，吉姆，你提到你做了 PCAP，然後你有一些保證金抵押品回來 - 你能否更好地了解你最終將需要發行多少新債務，以及這是否從你開始時改變宣布了這筆交易，然後在預計合併的基礎上，債務從現在的情況到哪裡去了？

Michael, I would say that the conditions, obviously, in terms of margin deposits and the return of cash has been pretty favorable this year. I'll turn it to Kris to talk about how that influences the way we think about financing Energy Harbor and the overall credit metrics and targets that we're looking at.

邁克爾，我想說，顯然，今年在保證金存款和現金返還方面的條件相當有利。我將把它交給克里斯，談談這如何影響我們對能源港融資的思考方式以及我們正在考慮的整體信用指標和目標。

Yes. Thanks, Michael, for the question. I'll put it into 2 buckets. As we -- when we announced the transaction, we had shown a an assumption that we would use $600 million of cash and $2.6 billion of debt. And of course, we knew that there was going to be some more cash coming back from margin deposits or we expect it to come back for margin deposits, but we wanted to be conservative and make sure that we maintain sufficient liquidity.

是的。謝謝邁克爾提出這個問題。我會把它放進2個桶裡。當我們宣布這項交易時，我們假設我們將使用 6 億美元的現金和 26 億美元的債務。當然，我們知道將會有更多的現金從保證金存款中收回，或者我們預計它會從保證金存款中收回，但我們希望保持保守並確保保持足夠的流動性。

As we have settled those hedges throughout this year, that money has returned as expected. But that number also included I plan to do some nonrecourse financing at Vistra Zero, which we still intend to do. So I would say, over the balance of the year, there's really 2 different things that we're looking at. There's the acquisition financing you can -- that has with the return of the margin deposits and the cash and the PCAPs transaction that has also returned cash.

由於我們今年已經解決了這些對沖，這筆錢已按預期返還。但這個數字還包括我計劃在瑞致達零進行一些無追索權融資，我們仍然打算這樣做。所以我想說，在這一年的剩餘時間裡，我們確實在關注兩件不同的事情。您可以進行收購融資，即返還保證金存款和現金，以及還返還現金的 PCAP 交易。

That has brought that $2.6 billion down to again, assuming we go to the next stage on the nonrecourse financing, but that's probably brought that number down to $1 billion to $1.5 billion, somewhere in that range. And then -- and then we still have nonrecourse financing in the works that was in our plan that was assumed in those numbers. And I think as we said in the remarks that we still expect to see a transaction in the coming months.

假設我們進入無追索權融資的下一階段，這使得 26 億美元再次下降，但這可能會使這個數字下降到 10 億至 15 億美元，在這個範圍內。然後 - 然後我們仍然有無追索權融資正在進行中，這是我們計劃中假設的這些數字。我認為正如我們在評論中所說，我們仍然期望在未來幾個月內看到交易。

And so that will fill in the rest. We still have enough commitment that we're still being conservative with our -- the financing commitment that we have in place. But -- that's really it. And from a debt perspective, as we said, we're still targeting sub 3x.

這樣就可以填補剩下的部分了。我們仍然有足夠的承諾，我們仍然對我們現有的融資承諾持保守態度。但是——確實如此。從債務角度來看，正如我們所說，我們的目標仍然是低於 3 倍。

At the closing, I think we continue to believe that we're going to be just above that. And as we look forward through a combination of debt repurchases and increasing EBITDA, we think we can get to that sub 3x in the 2020 -- as early as 2024. Potentially leaking into the first part of 2025, but we don't see there being a long wait for us to get to the target levels that we're looking at.

在結束時，我認為我們仍然相信我們將略高於這一水平。當我們展望通過債務回購和增加EBITDA 相結合的方式時，我們認為我們可以在2020 年（最早到2024 年）實現低於3 倍的目標。可能會滲透到2025 年上半年，但我們認為不會出現這種情況我們需要漫長的等待才能達到我們所期望的目標水平。

Okay. I appreciate all the color there. And then maybe just on ERCOT looking forward here, obviously, been pretty hot down there. What are you seeing in terms of just the grid holding up for the rest of the summer? And then thoughts on potential new build response later this year around the referendum vote.

好的。我欣賞那裡的所有顏色。然後也許只是在 ERCOT 上期待這裡，顯然，那裡非常熱。您對夏季剩餘時間的電網保持情況有何看法？然後是對今年晚些時候圍繞公投的潛在新建反應的思考。

Yes, Michael, it's been a very active kind of last 3 weeks. I would say it's a daily area of focus Steve would say it's a minute-by-minute focus. And that's really because the grid, as you know, in Texas, it's been a robust, low growth market. And the additional resources that have been added over the last 3 to 5 years have largely been wind and solar.

是的，邁克爾，過去三周非常活躍。我會說這是每天關注的領域，史蒂夫會說這是每分鐘關注的領域。正如您所知，這實際上是因為德克薩斯州的電網是一個強勁的、低增長的市場。過去三到五年新增的資源主要是風能和太陽能。

The solar move has been consequential 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts year-over-year. which is helping that evening period, and we're getting to the point where solar is filling in that 6- to 8-hour range fairly well, and we're all focused on the winds ability to pick up where solar left off at that sort of 7:00 to 8:00 hour and beyond.

太陽能發電量同比增加了 4,000 至 5,000 兆瓦。這對晚上的時段很有幫助，我們已經達到了太陽能在 6 到 8 小時範圍內相當好地填充的程度，我們都專注於風能在太陽能停止的地方恢復的能力大概是7:00 到8:00甚至更長的時間。

A couple of good points is that earlier in June, while wind overall was lower in third and second quarter this year in ERCOT than last year, at peak times during this evening hours, wind actually when the grid was at 80,000 megawatts or higher, wind actually performed relatively well in the early part of the summer. We didn't see much price formation.

有幾個優點是，6 月初，雖然 ERCOT 今年第三和第二季度的風電總體低於去年，但在今晚的高峰時段，風電實際上在電網處於 80,000 兆瓦或更高時，風電實際上在夏季初期表現相對較好。我們沒有看到太多的價格形成。

In July, late July and early August, we're starting to see that the wind in those periods of time is returning more to kind of normal expectations, and we're starting to see that tightness in those late evening hours -- and of course, we're talking about the marginal resource of wind or solar. That assumes nuclear coal, gas are all operating the way they need to be. And that's we sometimes lose focus on that because that's the majority of the grid. The units are running hard. There's no end in sight for this heat that we're in. And so -- the team is doing a terrific job keeping these units online.

在 7 月、7 月底和 8 月初，我們開始看到這些時間段的風力正在恢復到正常預期，並且我們開始看到傍晚時分的緊張程度 - 以及當然，我們談論的是風能或太陽能的邊際資源。這是假設核煤、天然氣都按其需要的方式運行。我們有時會失去對此的關注，因為那是網格的大部分。各單位正在努力運轉。我們所處的這種高溫還沒有結束的跡象。因此，該團隊在保持這些設備在線方面做得非常出色。

And I would say, overall, the ERCOT grid and the operators have done a nice job keeping the grid supplied but there's an asymmetric risk to the upside on prices when you look at how tight the grid actually is, and we're starting to see those forwards in '24, '25, I think, start to reflect that there actually is meaningful supply-demand tightening that's occurring in ERCOT.

我想說，總體而言，ERCOT 電網和運營商在保持電網供應方面做得很好，但當你看看電網實際上有多緊張時，價格上漲存在不對稱風險，我們開始看到我認為， 24 年、25 年的那些遠期展望開始反映出，ERCOT 中實際上正在發生有意義的供需緊縮。

And as far as whether gas newbuild comes it's a 3-year process for the most part from the time you get started. And the loan referendum is in November, the PCM, which was part of the House Bill 1500, the Sunset bill, it has a net $1 billion cap that was inserted as part of that legislation. It could be several years to 3 years before that could be implemented, the PCM -- so there are a lot of variables that are moving at the moment that developers would have to get comfortable with in terms of are they seeing enough to build because the curves are still backwardated.

至於天然氣新建是否到來，從開始算起，大部分時間是一個 3 年的過程。貸款公投是在 11 月進行的，PCM 是眾議院第 1500 號法案、日落法案的一部分，它的淨額上限為 10 億美元，是作為該立法的一部分插入的。 PCM 可能需要數年到 3 年的時間才能實施，因此目前有很多變量正在變化，開發人員必須適應他們是否看到足夠的內容來構建，因為曲線仍然存在現貨溢價。

Even though we're saying the curves have moved up in '24, '25 and we're working through it, ERCOT still has -- there's still an assumption in this market. It's going to get overbuilt or there's going to be a lot coming that's just going to be potentially supported by PTCs and create downward pressure on pricing. So I think it remains to be seen what kind of queue there's going to be for gas-fired generation, but there clearly was support in this legislative session to try to keep existing thermal generation and try to incentivize new.

儘管我們說曲線在 24 年、25 年已經上升，並且我們正在解決這個問題，但 ERCOT 仍然存在——這個市場仍然存在一個假設。它將會變得過度建設，或者將會有很多產品可能會受到 PTC 的支持，並對定價造成下行壓力。因此，我認為燃氣發電將會有什麼樣的隊列還有待觀察，但在本次立法會議上顯然有人支持嘗試保留現有的火力發電並嘗試激勵新的火力發電。

Not all stakeholders agreed on what the right solution is to do that, but at least there's recognition that the thermal resources existing and new are important. And that was a good outcome. But there's still a lot of work to do with the P&C and ERCOT in various stakeholder groups to get this over the finish line.

並非所有利益相關者都同意正確的解決方案是什麼，但至少人們認識到現有和新的熱資源都很重要。這是一個很好的結果。但各個利益相關者團體在 P&C 和 ERCOT 方面仍有大量工作要做，才能完成這一任務。

The next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit on the conversation on the '24 '25, the $4.5 billion there. Can you elaborate a little bit on what the retail assumptions are there? I know Shar tried to get at this a little bit, but it seems like you're just collapsing the transaction in there. Ultimately come up with that new number in the mid-4s. How do you think about these other retail pieces there?

只是想稍微跟進一下 24 '25 的談話，那裡有 45 億美元。您能否詳細說明一下零售假設是什麼？我知道 Shar 試圖解決這個問題，但看起來你只是在崩潰那裡的交易。最終得出 4 左右的新數字。您如何看待那裡的其他零售產品？

And ultimately, just also what were you alluding to on '26? I know you said it was quite open. Just what does that transposed into '26 if you can start to go there just quickly in terms of the puts and takes?

最後，你在《26》中提到了什麼？我知道你說它很開放。如果你能在看跌期權和拿單方面快速開始進入 26 年，那麼這會帶來什麼呢？

Sure. Well, if you look at our revised guidance for 2023 and you look at that sort of midpoint, if you take that and add the Energy Harbor numbers to it, that I'd shared with you for '24 '25, you're getting to that $4.5 billion number. And what we've seen in our business model, Julien, is because of where we've hedged and how we've been able to hedge, the realized kind of margin expectations are pretty flat from this kind of '23, '24, '25 time frame.

當然。好吧，如果你看看我們修訂後的 2023 年指南，你會看到那種中點，如果你把它加上能源港數字，我在 2025 年 24 月與你分享的，你會得到到45億美元的數字。 Julien，我們在我們的商業模式中看到的是，由於我們對沖的地點以及我們能夠對沖的方式，實現的利潤率預期與 23 年、24 年的情況相當持平。 '25 的時間範圍。

And the split between retail and gen might vary a little bit, but not materially. And I think that's 1 of the durable parts about our model is, and we saw it last year. And we're going to see it a little bit this year is that you may see a little bit of movement between retail and gen based on market conditions. But retail is very solid in this kind of $1 billion range over that horizon.

零售業和發電業之間的差距可能會略有不同，但不會有實質性差異。我認為這是我們模型的耐用部件之一，我們去年就看到了它。今年我們會看到，根據市場狀況，你可能會看到零售業和發電業之間出現一些變化。但在這個範圍內，零售業在 10 億美元的範圍內非常穩固。

And I would expect the difference being the wholesale to get to that $3.8 million. And that's actually, I think, 1 of the things that we've been excited to share is that the business is stable doesn't mean we're not working hard every day to hold on to it. I don't want to make it sound like just because we've hedged it, it's going to be realized. We have to deliver every single day on the business.

我預計批發價的差異將達到 380 萬美元。事實上，我認為，我們很高興分享的一件事是，業務穩定並不意味著我們沒有每天努力工作來堅持下去。我不想讓它聽起來好像只是因為我們已經對沖了它，它就會被實現。我們每天都必須交付業務。

But the outlook is actually above where we were in May of last year when we announced it and stable, and we'll be adding Energy Harbor to it. And so that line of sight with those hedge percentages we feel really good about where we are in that '24, '25 time frame. Certainly, '26 is more open.

但前景實際上高於去年 5 月我們宣布的水平，並且穩定，我們將在其中添加能源港。因此，通過這些對沖百分比的視線，我們對 24、25 年時間範圍內的情況感到非常滿意。當然，26 年更加開放。

And as I mentioned earlier, ERCOT is looking favorable relative to the last time we talked, but PJM is down on fixed price power at this point in '26, but then we also have some PTC support for that -- for the Energy Harbor length. It doesn't look like ERCOT would be in that PTC range right now because of where the curves have moved up to. But we've got kind of geographic flexibility segment, flexibility in -- or I should say, diversification and how I think 2026 will play out.

正如我之前提到的，相對於我們上次談話，ERCOT 看起來比較有利，但PJM 在26 年的這個時候在固定價格力量上有所下降，但隨後我們也得到了一些PTC 的支持——對於能源港長度。由於曲線已向上移動，ERCOT 目前似乎不在該 PTC 範圍內。但我們有一定的地域靈活性、靈活性——或者我應該說，多元化以及我認為 2026 年將如何發展。

Got it. And if I can ask you to clarify your forward ERCOT expectations. I mean we've got a few different programs yet to be implemented, I suppose, is the procurement program. with a certain level of subsidy baked in there, coming, I suppose at some point, curious on your sense of timing on that for any real impact. And then related, we have other reserve programs yet to be fully implemented. I'd be curious on your initial assessment of some of these programs, like the dispatchable reserve strength?

知道了。我能否請您澄清一下您對 ERCOT 的預期。我的意思是，我們還有一些不同的計劃尚未實施，我想，就是採購計劃。有了一定程度的補貼，我想在某個時候，我想知道你對時機的把握是否會產生真正的影響。與此相關的是，我們還有其他儲備計劃尚未完全實施。我很好奇您對其中一些計劃的初步評估，例如可調度的後備力量？

Sure. I'll start. I think by subsidy, I think you're referring maybe to the loan program and the grants that could be coming Julien?

當然。我開始吧。我認為，通過補貼，我想你指的是貸款計劃和可能即將到來的贈款，朱利安？

Yes.

是的。

So yes, that -- obviously, the referendum is in November. The initial amount that was shared as part of the bill was $10 billion, the amount that has been provided for in the budget is $5 billion -- and then the amount of the $5 billion that's going to be allocated to building new gas plants is unknown at this point.

所以，是的，公投顯然是在 11 月舉行。作為該法案一部分的初始金額為 100 億美元，預算中已規定的金額為 50 億美元，然後將分配用於建設新天然氣工廠的 50 億美元金額未知在此刻。

So let's say it's something in the $3 billion to $3.5 billion range potentially. When we've looked at the math, the 3% interest on a 60% loan to value, it can move your returns a couple of points. So it is helpful, but it does not make up for potentially missing revenue in a backwardated market. And that gets to your other point, which is do these other programs, whether it's an ORDC bridge PCM being implemented, ECRS was just implemented. DRS will be implemented by the end of 2024, do those cumulatively add a recognition of reliability for the assets that Ken provided?

假設它的潛在價值在 30 億至 35 億美元之間。當我們計算一下，60% 貸款的 3% 利息與價值相比，它可以使您的回報增加幾個百分點。所以它是有幫助的，但它並不能彌補現貨溢價市場中潛在的收入損失。這就涉及到你的另一點，那就是執行這些其他程序，無論是正在實施的 ORDC 橋 PCM，還是剛剛實施的 ECRS。 DRS將於2024年底實施，這些是否會累計增加對Ken提供的資產可靠性的認可？

And if so, can we get enough line of sight to build into that. And I think we don't know yet for us. I mean, we're still evaluating it. Steve, in terms of how the new ancillaries like ECRS and DRS, how you see that playing in Artic ORDC bridge be interested in sharing your thoughts on how you see the market adapting to these.

如果是這樣，我們能否獲得足夠的視線來實現這一目標。我認為我們還不知道。我的意思是，我們仍在評估它。 Steve，關於 ECRS 和 DRS 等新輔助設備，您如何看待在 Artic ORDC 橋上玩遊戲，有興趣分享您對市場如何適應這些輔助設備的想法。

Sure. I think let's start with ECRS because it's the latest and we've actually seen how it's been implemented. And they're putting it in when I say the ERCOT is dispatching it only when critically needed. And so I think it's serving well from a reliability perspective in terms of keeping ERCOT out of an EEA situation.

當然。我認為讓我們從 ECRS 開始，因為它是最新的，而且我們實際上已經看到了它是如何實施的。當我說 ERCOT 僅在緊急需要時調度它時，他們就會將其放入。因此，我認為從可靠性的角度來看，它在使 ERCOT 遠離 EEA 情況方面發揮了很好的作用。

But one of the other things I've seen is it hasn't necessarily impacted price formation too much. So I really think it gets into how ERCOT handles these reserve products. If they handle them in the way that they're designed, which is really when the grid is approaching tight conditions, and it's not necessarily used to -- for price formation which is what we're seeing so far. When I see ECRS dispatched, it's been on the very hot days, at the peak hours when needed, and it hasn't been very price suppressive. So we think it's working the way it's intended.

但我看到的另一件事是，它不一定對價格形成產生太大影響。所以我真的認為這涉及 ERCOT 如何處理這些儲備產品。如果他們按照設計的方式處理它們，這實際上是當電網接近緊張條件時，並且不一定習慣於價格形成，這就是我們迄今為止所看到的。當我看到 ECRS 派出時，正值非常炎熱的日子，在需要的高峰時段，而且價格並沒有受到很大的抑制。所以我們認為它正在按照預期的方式工作。

And we'll have to see on these new reserves that they're putting in. But to the extent they use them in the same way as ECRS, I think we're in the best of both words where we're avoiding what I'll call emergency conditions on the grid, but we're still seeing very solid price formation when it does get tight.

我們必須看看他們投入的這些新儲備金。但就他們以與 ECRS 相同的方式使用它們而言，我認為我們在避免我所採取的措施方面處於兩全其美的境地。我們會在電網上發出緊急情況，但當電力供應緊張時，我們仍然會看到非常穩定的價格形成。

And I think it's too early to call DRS at this point. I mean it's still early stage to think about that one. Julien. That was one of the ones that some certain stakeholders were pushing as kind of the market solution. And so I believe the PUC and ERCOT have enough tools that they can work with to try to build some incentives for existing and new assets to be recognized and rewarded for their reliability, including a firming requirement for assets that come on to the grid after January 1, '27 and that they have to effectively be able to backstop the expected generation that they are committing to. Those were all the right, I think, concepts, it's just early stage for us to know at this point how that's going to affect prices.

我認為現在打電話給 DRS 還為時過早。我的意思是，現在考慮這個問題還處於早期階段。朱利安.這是某些利益相關者正在推動的市場解決方案之一。因此，我相信 PUC 和 ERCOT 有足夠的工具可以用來嘗試建立一些激勵措施，讓現有和新資產的可靠性得到認可和獎勵，包括對 1 月後併入電網的資產提出嚴格要求27 年1月1 日，他們必須能夠有效地支持他們所承諾的預期一代。我認為這些都是正確的概念，目前我們還處於早期階段，知道這將如何影響價格。

Right. Net-net, though, there does seem to be some kind of timing discrepancy between when these reserve programs come in and any ultimate effect of any kind of procurement program here?

正確的。然而，淨淨，這些儲備計劃的實施時間與任何類型的採購計劃的最終效果之間似乎確實存在某種時間差異？

I think so. The procurement program or the loan program and grant program alone, like I said, is marginally it's beneficial but it does not solve the broader problem that we entered the session trying to solve. And I think that's why we ended up with a menu of things.

我想是這樣。正如我所說，單獨的採購計劃或貸款計劃和贈款計劃雖然有一定的好處，但它並不能解決我們進入會議試圖解決的更廣泛的問題。我認為這就是我們最終制定菜單的原因。

And frankly, it's a ton of work for the Public Utility Commission in ERCOT. To work through this, and they're going to have their plate more than full. I mean, there's real-time co-optimization that has to fit in there before even PCM. So there is a lot still to, I think, figure out and we'll obviously be active and work with the stakeholders involved to try to bring clarity to it. But yes, on a calendar basis, it's multiyear at this point.

坦率地說，ERCOT 中的公用事業委員會需要做大量的工作。為了解決這個問題，他們的任務將會非常滿。我的意思是，甚至在 PCM 之前就必須進行實時協同優化。因此，我認為還有很多事情需要弄清楚，我們顯然會積極與相關利益相關者合作，努力澄清這一問題。但是，是的，從日曆的角度來看，目前已經是多年了。

The next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Durgesh Chopra 與 Evercore ISI 的關係。

Just on the -- just on the hedges, I think you answered part of my question in your prepared remarks. But the '22 to '25 hedges stayed at 86% and no change since the Q1 update call. Is that just you willing to stay more open given the market conditions? You mentioned the ERCOT curves or is it just more normal course of business and you're going to opportunistically hedge more? Just any thoughts there?

順便說一句，我想你在準備好的發言中回答了我的部分問題。但 22 至 25 年的對沖保持在 86%，自第一季度更新電話會議以來沒有任何變化。鑑於市場狀況，只有您願意保持更加開放的態度嗎？您提到了 ERCOT 曲線，還是這只是更正常的業務過程，您會機會主義地進行更多對沖？只是有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, it's a very good question, Durgesh. I would say there's a combination of factors. One is -- we've actually added some length given that the curves have moved up. So that's a good thing. There's more hours in the money for the fleet. So that means there's actually more to hedge. That's ultimately a good thing.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題，杜爾格甚。我想說這是多種因素綜合作用的結果。一是——考慮到曲線已經向上移動，我們實際上增加了一些長度。所以這是一件好事。艦隊有更多的時間來賺錢。所以這意味著實際上還有更多的東西需要對沖。這最終是一件好事。

And so when you look at the percentage, it's not a static amount of generation. So that's 1 element. The second element is that's as of [630] that we were giving you these percentages. We've continued to hedge since 630 , particularly in the 2025 time frame. I don't feel that where we sit working with our team that we feel '26 is at a place where you have to go lock it all in because of the dynamics we talked about earlier.

因此，當您查看百分比時，您會發現它並不是靜態的發電量。所以這是 1 個元素。第二個要素是，截至 [630]，我們向您提供了這些百分比。自 630 以來，我們一直在繼續對沖，特別是在 2025 年的時間範圍內。我不認為我們與我們的團隊一起工作，因為我們之前討論過的動態，我們認為“26”是一個你必須鎖定一切的地方。

We think there's still upside in some of these markets, and we feel good about the visibility we've given for '24, '25, and we've got time to work on '26. So the curves, as I mentioned, in '26 for PJM had come down, ERCOT has gone up, but not anything that we need to go rush out and move materially on '26 at this stage.

我們認為其中一些市場仍有上漲空間，我們對 24 年、25 年的知名度感到滿意，並且我們有時間在 26 年開展工作。因此，正如我提到的，PJM 的曲線在 26 年下降了，ERCOT 上升了，但現階段我們不需要在 26 年匆忙採取任何實質性行動。

How about just within that '23 to '25 period. I guess what the message here is that 86% should move higher as we get along here.

就在 23 至 25 年間怎麼樣？我想這里傳達的信息是，隨著我們相處得好，86% 的比例應該會更高。

It's already higher since [630] Durgesh -- and so the '26 hasn't moved much, but we have moved up on '25, and we're nearly fully hedged obviously, for '24. So -- but these percentages do move because, again, being in the money means you have more hours to hedge because there's gross margin.

自[630] Durgesh以來它已經更高了——所以'26並沒有移動太多，但我們已經在'25上移動了，並且我們顯然幾乎完全對沖了'24。所以，但這些百分比確實會發生變化，因為，再說一次，處於貨幣狀態意味著你有更多的時間來對沖，因為有毛利率。

So the hedge percentage could drop, but your earnings forecast could go up as a function of just simply looking at the opportunity set. So some of it is just the timing and the fact that these curves do move around.

因此，對沖百分比可能會下降，但您的盈利預測可能會因為僅查看機會集而上升。所以其中一些只是時間和這些曲線確實在移動的事實。

Understood. And then, Jim, 1 of the questions we consistently get from investors. Obviously, as you look at the stock, right, I mean, since I believe you initiated this buyback program, it was Q3, Q4 '21 the stock was in mid-teens. You broke $30 today. Just your updated thoughts on capital allocation, share buyback versus growth opportunities. How are you thinking about all of that here as the stock hit $30 .

明白了。然後，吉姆，這是我們經常從投資者那裡得到的問題之一。顯然，當你看股票時，對吧，我的意思是，因為我相信你發起了這個回購計劃，那是 21 年第三季度、第四季度，股票價格在十幾歲左右。今天你突破了 30 美元。只是您對資本配置、股票回購與增長機會的最新想法。當股價觸及 30 美元時，您如何看待這一切？

Sure. Well, Daesh, -- it is good to see that the stock has moved up. We view this as a long-term strategy when we initiated it, and we still feel that way. If you look at the stock price move, and this is a very imprecise science, but a good portion of the move, you could explain by virtue of the reduction in the share count and not necessarily seeing the enterprise value move that materially.

當然。好吧，達伊沙——很高興看到股價上漲。我們在啟動時將其視為一項長期戰略，現在仍然如此。如果你觀察股價變動，這是一門非常不精確的科學，但變動的很大一部分，你可以通過股票數量的減少來解釋，而不一定看到企業價值發生實質性變動。

Now that's still a good thing for the existing shareholders, and it's an opportunity for existing shareholders that are effectively increasing their percentage of ownership in Vistra. I also believe that since the May time frame of last year and where we are today, we have materially improved the earnings outlook of the company, which in theory, would result potentially in a multiple expansion.

現在這對於現有股東來說仍然是一件好事，對於現有股東來說也是一個有效增加其在瑞致達持股比例的機會。我還相信，自去年五月以來以及我們今天的情況，我們已經大幅改善了公司的盈利前景，理論上，這可能會導致倍數擴張。

And we really haven't seen that much of a multiple expansion. And I'm not here to argue what the right multiple actually is. But I still feel there's recognition that I believe the market will continue to see as we put, I call it points on the board, delivering on our scorecard and our results.

我們確實還沒有看到那麼多的多重擴張。我並不是在這裡爭論正確的倍數到底是什麼。但我仍然覺得人們認識到，我相信市場將繼續看到我們所說的，我稱之為板上的分數，交付我們的記分卡和我們的結果。

And at some point in time, when folks are comfortable that the earnings power is sustainable for the -- in the duration of a horizon beyond even the 2 to 3 years we talk about you might actually see some multiple expansion. We're not really there yet. And so our capital allocation plan for the foreseeable future, and I would put that in partly the high-class problem if we have to revisit it.

在某個時間點，當人們對盈利能力的可持續性感到滿意時——在我們談論的甚至超過 2 到 3 年的期限內，你實際上可能會看到一些倍數擴張。我們還沒有真正做到這一點。因此，我們在可預見的未來的資本配置計劃，如果我們必須重新審視它，我會將其部分歸為高級問題。

But we feel very good about the capital allocation plan, and we might lean in a little more aggressively on the pace of the buybacks if we continue to overperform and see where we are with our, obviously, cash needs to do that, fund Energy Harbor, which is our focus, is to get this transaction closed in the fourth quarter.

但我們對資本配置計劃感覺非常好，如果我們繼續表現出色，並看看我們顯然需要多少現金來實現這一目標，那麼我們可能會更積極地調整回購的步伐，為能源港提供資金我們的重點是在第四季度完成這筆交易。

And then we're being disciplined on the Vistra Zero projects. And when we're reflecting that. And we want our shareholders to be confident that we do things, and we do look at the buyback as an alternate use of capital relative to the growth options. So the growth options need to be attractive. And so we'll pace the Vistra Zero projects to make sure that we're hitting the best ones and not chasing just the renewable projects.

然後我們在瑞致達零項目上受到紀律處分。當我們反思這一點時。我們希望股東對我們所做的事情充滿信心，而且我們確實將回購視為相對於增長選擇的資本的替代用途。因此，增長選擇必須具有吸引力。因此，我們將加快瑞致達零項目的步伐，以確保我們實現最好的項目，而不僅僅是追逐可再生能源項目。

And I like our portfolio there. And we mentioned Moss 350 was an excellent project to bring online and an excellent job by the team. So capital allocation plan is intact, and we're excited to, I'd say, hit the gas pedal on the capital allocation plan because we think it's the right mix for our shareholders as well as our debt holders.

我喜歡我們在那裡的投資組合。我們提到 Moss 350 是一個出色的上線項目，也是團隊出色的工作。因此，資本配置計劃完好無損，我想說，我們很高興踩下資本配置計劃的油門，因為我們認為這對於我們的股東和債務持有人來說都是正確的組合。

I would just add, obviously, you're talking about, as you mentioned, $30. We do as you would expect, internally have our own valuation of what management and the team feels like the stock is worth. And I think, as Jim said, we're still comfortable buying and potentially leaning in at these prices. And so it gives you a feel for where we think fair value is, and we're not there yet.

我想補充一點，顯然，正如您所提到的，您正在談論 30 美元。我們按照您的預期行事，內部對管理層和團隊認為股票的價值有自己的評估。我認為，正如吉姆所說，我們仍然願意購買並可能傾向於以這些價格買入。因此，它讓您了解我們認為公允價值在哪裡，但我們還沒有達到那個水平。

The next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自大衛·阿卡羅 (David Arcaro) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

Let's see. I was wondering, I noticed a decline in the CapEx for 2023 for solar and storage development. Wondering what's driving that. And then similarly, just looking out to the development plan, some of the in-service dates moved out for several of the solar and storage development projects. Wondering if you could give some color around that dynamic.

讓我們來看看。我想知道，我注意到 2023 年太陽能和存儲開發的資本支出有所下降。想知道是什麼推動了這一點。同樣，只要關注開發計劃，幾個太陽能和存儲開發項目的一些投入使用日期就會被推遲。想知道你是否可以為這種動態增添一些色彩。

Yes, absolutely. Those 2 are related, David. We have the Illinois coal to solar, we had the majority of that reduction that you see was some movement out of 2023 and into '24, '25. We're still working the procurement cycle with -- working with vendors on EPC and obviously, the equipment. And we're still working that process in Illinois.

是的，一點沒錯。這兩個是相關的，大衛。我們有伊利諾伊州的煤炭到太陽能，你看到的大部分減少是 2023 年到 24 年、25 年的一些變化。我們仍在與 EPC 供應商合作，顯然還有設備的採購週期。我們仍在伊利諾伊州進行這一過程。

So it's more just a deferral at this point for the coal to solar projects. And that was -- that was about 2/3 of what was moving out. The other is, as I mentioned on a couple of previous calls, on the ERCOT solar, we're starting to see the solar hours kind of cannibalize the solar hours.

因此，目前煤改電項目只是推遲。那是大約 2/3 的搬出量。另一個是，正如我在之前的幾次電話會議中提到的，在 ERCOT 太陽能上，我們開始看到太陽時數會蠶食太陽時數。

And so we'll move forward on solar projects with a PPA, but we're not going to move those in a merchant type model. And that really was the other part of what lowered the CapEx. Now as I've mentioned as well, we own these projects, the pacing of these, a project may not be ripe now, could be ripe 3 years from now, depending on market conditions and depending on how some of these rules played out that we talked about on 1 of the earlier questions, -- but that is really a reduction at this point this year, that's a deferral on the coal to solar.

因此，我們將通過購電協議推進太陽能項目，但我們不會以商業模式推進這些項目。這確實是降低資本支出的另一部分。現在正如我所提到的，我們擁有這些項目，這些項目的節奏，一個項目現在可能還不成熟，可能在三年後成熟，這取決於市場條件以及其中一些規則的實施方式我們討論了之前的一個問題，但今年這個時候確實是減少了，這是煤炭轉向太陽能的推遲。

But I would say in Texas Solar, but I would say next year, we're probably still in this kind of $600 million number. So we're not pushing number down this year to then take the next year number up fully. We're showing the discipline because the Texas piece, in particular, is something that we want to keep a close eye on. So I think even for next year, you're going to see a development number for CapEx that's pretty close to this year.

但我會說，在德克薩斯太陽能公司，但我會說，明年，我們可能仍處於這種 6 億美元的數字。因此，我們不會先降低今年的數字，然後再全面提高明年的數字。我們之所以表現出紀律性，是因為德克薩斯州的那篇文章是我們特別想要密切關注的。因此，我認為即使在明年，您也會看到與今年非常接近的資本支出發展數字。

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. And I guess just maybe following on to that, how do you think of if there's or now maybe this is a little bit separately. I imagine if that growth CapEx number goes down, that was going to be largely financed with nonrecourse project financing anyway. So we open up additional cash available for allocation at the overall Vistra entity?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助。我想也許接下來，你如何看待是否存在或者現在也許這有點分開。我想，如果增長資本支出數字下降，那麼無論如何，這將主要通過無追索權項目融資來融資。因此，我們要在整個瑞致達實體中開放額外的可用現金進行分配？

You have that right. As we look at this, as we -- the amount of price (technical difficulty)

你有這個權利。當我們看到這個時，我們——價格的數額（技術難度）