Vistra Corp. (VST) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good Day, and welcome to the Vistra's First Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, that today's event is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Vistra 2023 年第一季業績電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的活動將被錄音。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Meagan Horn。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast, discussing our first quarter 2023 results. Today's discussion is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and the earnings release.

各位早安，感謝各位參加 Vistra 的投資人網路直播，討論我們 2023 年第一季的業績。今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資人關係專區進行現場直播。您也可以在該處找到今天的投資人簡報與財報新聞稿。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天由 Vistra 總裁暨執行長 Jim Burke，以及 Vistra 執行副總裁暨財務長 Kris Moldovan 主持本次電話會議。視需要，其他 Vistra 資深主管也將在今天電話會議的第二部分加入回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on our call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們的財報新聞稿、簡報以及今天電話會議中討論的其他事項，包含對某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的引用。與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表，已載於新聞稿以及投資人簡報附錄中，並可於 Vistra 網站的投資人關係專區取得。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statement included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，係基於我們僅就今日日期所認為合理的假設。此等前瞻性陳述受若干風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與所預測或暗示者有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述之義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾查閱我們網站投資人簡報第 2 張投影片所載之安全港聲明，其中說明前瞻性陳述之風險、簡報中所含特定產業與市場資料之限制，以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之使用。

Thank you. And I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

謝謝。接下來我將把電話會議交給我們的總裁暨執行長 Jim Burke。

Thank you, Meagan. Good morning. Thank you all for joining our first quarter 2023 earnings call. I will begin on Slide 5.

謝謝你，Meagan。各位早安。感謝各位參加我們 2023 年第一季財報電話會議。我將從第 5 張投影片開始。

We entered the year focused on our 4 strategic priorities, and we are making great strides. First, our integrated model continues to demonstrate its value and effectiveness. As you probably recall, we spent the majority of 2022 executing on our comprehensive hedging strategy that we said was locking in earnings opportunities for 2023 through 2025. We utilized available liquidity last year to support their strategy as we believe the additional EBITDA opportunities were significant.

我們在年初即聚焦於 4 項策略優先事項，並且正取得長足進展。第一，我們的整合式商業模式持續展現其價值與效能。各位可能還記得，我們在 2022 年大部分時間執行全面性的避險策略；我們當時表示該策略正鎖定 2023 年至 2025 年的獲利機會。去年我們運用可用流動性來支持該策略，因為我們認為額外的 EBITDA 機會相當可觀。

This first quarter of 2023, we saw this strategy translate into real value as mild weather was experienced across the major markets in which we operate which led to lower-than-expected cleared power prices. While we saw power prices clear at approximately $30 a megawatt hour on average, our first quarter results reflect a realization of average prices of around $45 per megawatt hour given we were highly hedged entering the year.

在 2023 年第一季，我們看到該策略轉化為實質價值，因為我們營運的主要市場普遍出現溫和天氣，導致電力結算價格低於預期。雖然我們看到電價平均約以每兆瓦時 30 美元結算，但由於我們在年初即高度避險，我們第一季的結果反映平均實現價格約為每兆瓦時 45 美元。

In addition, in the outer years where we have been more open, we have seen prices and spark spreads increase as compared to this time last year. We have continued to opportunistically hedge to secure an increasing out-year earnings potential. We believe this is important, not only because it provides an enhanced resiliency of our earnings profile despite an uncertain commodity market but also because it ensures we can deliver on our commitments to reliably serve our customers, consistently return capital to shareholders, maintain a strong balance sheet and transform our fleet as we strengthen our position for the long term.

此外，在我們曝險程度較高的較遠年度，相較於去年同期，我們看到價格與火花價差（spark spreads）上升。我們持續把握機會進行避險，以鎖定逐步增加的遠期年度獲利潛力。我們認為這點很重要，不僅因為在不確定的商品市場中可提升我們獲利結構的韌性，也因為這能確保我們履行承諾：可靠地服務客戶、持續回饋股東資本、維持強健的資產負債表，並在強化長期競爭地位的同時推動機組轉型。

Second, our return of capital to our shareholders remained consistent and robust. Kris will provide a detailed update on our capital allocation plan in just a moment, but I want to highlight that of the aggregate $4.25 billion share repurchase authorization, we have returned approximately $2.7 billion to shareholders from November 2021 through May 4, 2023. Additionally, we are on track to pay $300 million in common stock dividends in 2023 as planned, with our Board approving a second quarter dividend the amount of $0.204, representing an approximately 15% increase over the second quarter dividend paid in 2022.

第二，我們對股東的資本回饋維持一致且強勁。Kris 稍後將就我們的資本配置計畫提供更詳細的更新，但我想強調，在合計 42.5 億美元的庫藏股回購授權額度中，我們自 2021 年 11 月至 2023 年 5 月 4 日已向股東回饋約 27 億美元。此外，我們也如計畫在 2023 年支付 3 億美元普通股股利；董事會已核准第二季股利每股 0.204 美元，較 2022 年第二季股利提高約 15%。

The share repurchase program, together with the structure of our dividend plan, work in tandem to provide our shareholders with the expectation of dividend growth each quarter as the aggregate $300 million in annual dividends is spread across a decreasing number of shares of Vistra common stock.

庫藏股回購計畫與我們股利計畫的結構相互配合，使股東可預期每季股利成長，因為每年合計 3 億美元的股利將分配在逐漸減少的 Vistra 普通股股數之上。

Third, we continue our focus on a strong balance sheet. As margin deposits return, we are positioned to utilize that cash for opportunistic delevering and/or to reduce the amount of debt we expect to incur to close the Energy Harbor acquisition we announced in March of this year. While the first quarter is typically the lowest free cash flow quarter for Vistra, we were able to repay approximately $500 million of short-term debt. Of course, we're expecting our net debt balance to grow over the balance of the year to fund the Energy Harbor acquisition, which we expect to come with a significant amount of EBITDA, but we remain focused on our goal of a long-term net leverage ratio, excluding any nonrecourse debt at Vistra Zero, of less than 3x, which we expect to achieve in the 2024 to 2025 time frame.

第三，我們持續聚焦於強健的資產負債表。隨著保證金存款回流，我們可運用該等現金進行機會性去槓桿，及／或降低我們為完成今年 3 月宣布的 Energy Harbor 收購案而預期需承擔的債務金額。雖然第一季通常是 Vistra 自由現金流最低的季度，但我們仍得以償還約 5 億美元的短期債務。當然，我們預期今年其餘期間為了資助 Energy Harbor 收購案，我們的淨負債餘額將增加；該收購案預期將帶來可觀的 EBITDA。不過，我們仍專注於長期目標：在排除 Vistra Zero 任何無追索權債務後，淨槓桿比率低於 3 倍；我們預期在 2024 至 2025 年期間達成。

Finally, we are very excited about our announcement just 2 months ago regarding the acquisition of Energy Harbor which is expected to close later this year. With this acquisition, our nuclear fleet will grow by an additional 4,000 megawatts in PJM, which will more than double the zero-carbon generation we have online today.

最後，我們對於兩個月前宣布、預計於今年稍晚完成的 Energy Harbor 收購案感到非常振奮。透過此收購，我們在 PJM 的核能機組容量將再增加 4,000 兆瓦，將使我們目前上線的零碳發電量增加至兩倍以上。

Turning to Slide 6, I will discuss this quarter's results. We achieved $554 million of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Strong operational performance and our robust hedging activities helped to offset milder-than-normal weather throughout the U.S. Our retail and generation teams continued their strong operational performance, with retail achieving growth in ERCOT customer counts while maintaining attractive margins, and our generation team delivering commercial availability of 97% while maintaining the focus on safety. The generation team has operated over 3 years without a significant injury across a large and diverse fleet, and safety remains our #1 priority.

接著看第 6 張投影片，我將說明本季業績。我們達成持續營運調整後 EBITDA 5.54 億美元。強勁的營運表現與穩健的避險活動，協助抵銷全美偏暖、低於常態的天氣影響。我們的零售與發電團隊持續展現強勁營運表現：零售在維持具吸引力的利潤率同時，達成 ERCOT 客戶數成長；發電團隊在持續聚焦安全的同時，商業可用率達 97%。發電團隊在龐大且多元的機組組合下，已連續超過 3 年未發生重大傷害事件，而安全仍是我們的第一優先。

Looking ahead for the remainder of the year, we are confident in our ability to meet or exceed the midpoint of our $3.4 billion to $4.0 billion adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations guidance range for 2023 and as we announced in the third quarter of 2022. We're also reaffirming our $1.75 billion to $2.35 billion adjusted free cash flow before growth from ongoing operations guidance range. Of course, with 9 months to go in the year, including the important summer months, we believe it would be premature to narrow or otherwise adjust our guidance range for 2023. Kris will cover in more detail while we remain bullish on our opportunities in years ahead.

展望今年剩餘期間，我們有信心達成或超越我們 2023 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 指引區間 34 億至 40 億美元的中位數，該指引如同我們在 2022 年第三季所宣布。我們也重申持續營運、成長投資前調整後自由現金流指引區間為 17.5 億至 23.5 億美元。當然，今年尚有 9 個月，包括關鍵的夏季月份，我們認為此時縮窄或以其他方式調整 2023 年指引區間仍為時過早。Kris 將更詳細說明我們為何仍對未來年度的機會保持樂觀。

Before I wrap up and turn the call over to Kris to discuss the first quarter's performance in more detail, I want to provide a quick update on the status of our Energy Harbor acquisition. As noted on Slide 7, we have filed approval requests with each of the 3 key agencies and anticipate receiving all needed approvals in time to close by the end of this year. As a reminder, we've committed bridge financing in place in an amount sufficient to close the transaction, but we do expect to replace the entirety of our bridge commitments with permanent financing between now and closing.

在我結束並把電話會議交給 Kris、更深入討論第一季表現之前，我想就 Energy Harbor 收購案的進度提供簡要更新。如第 7 張投影片所示，我們已向 3 個關鍵主管機關分別提出核准申請，並預期能及時取得所有必要核准，以在今年底前完成交割。提醒各位，我們已安排足以完成交易的過橋融資承諾，但我們確實預期在交割前，將以長期融資取代全部過橋融資承諾。

Finally, I think it's worth noting that as we have seen out-year forward price curves improve, our financial forecast for Energy Harbor has also improved in the out years. Previous estimates we shared in March indicated average adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities for 2024 through 2025 of approximately $900 million with adjusted free cash flow before growth opportunities at a 65% to 70% range. This is inclusive of synergies and on an open pretax basis.

最後，我認為值得一提的是，隨著我們看到較遠年度的遠期價格曲線改善，我們對 Energy Harbor 的財務預測在較遠年度也有所提升。我們在 3 月分享的先前估計顯示，2024 至 2025 年平均調整後 EBITDA 中位數機會約為 9 億美元，而成長投資前調整後自由現金流機會約為 65% 至 70% 的區間。上述數字包含綜效，並以開放式稅前基礎計算。

Given recent price curves, we see the average adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities from Energy Harbor for 2026 and beyond to be higher than this original estimate. We expect that we will provide more detailed adjusted EBITDA and other financial projections for the combined company closer to closing or just after.

基於近期價格曲線，我們認為 Energy Harbor 在 2026 年及以後的平均調整後 EBITDA 中位數機會將高於原先估計。我們預期將在接近交割時或交割後不久，提供合併後公司更詳細的調整後 EBITDA 與其他財務預測。

Kris, I'll now turn the call over to you.

Kris，接下來我把電話會議交給你。

Thank you, Jim. Starting on Slide 9. Vistra delivered $554 million in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA, including $583 million from generation and a loss of $29 million from retail.

謝謝你，Jim。我從第 9 張投影片開始。Vistra 的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 為 5.54 億美元，其中發電貢獻 5.83 億美元，而零售為虧損 2,900 萬美元。

Generation's results were strong despite the significant impact of milder weather on pricing, primarily driven by in-the-money settled hedges, opportunistically backing down generation at times when prices were below unit cost and the recognition of a net bonus position in PJM for Winter Storm Elliott. Those benefits were partially offset by headwinds for the quarter that were known at the time guidance for 2023 was set, including default service migration costs and lower PJM capacity revenues as well as intra-year impacts relating to timing of hedges and opportunistic acceleration of planned outages into the first quarter.

儘管較為溫和的天氣對定價造成顯著影響，發電業務的業績仍然強勁，主要受惠於已結算且處於價內的避險部位、在價格低於機組成本時把握時機適度降載，以及因冬季風暴 Elliott 而在 PJM 確認的淨獎金部位。上述利多部分被本季若干已在設定 2023 年指引時即已知悉的不利因素所抵銷，包括預設服務（default service）遷移成本、較低的 PJM 容量收入，以及與避險時點與將原計畫停機檢修（outages）機會性提前至第一季相關的年度內影響。

While retail was also impacted by mild weather, it's important to note that due to strong counts and margin management, the results for retail for the first quarter are in the range of what we expected coming into the year. Given the intra-year shaping, we continue to see due to higher power costs in the winter and summer months, we anticipate substantially all of the ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for retail to be achieved in the second and fourth quarters.

零售業務同樣受到溫和天氣影響，但需要強調的是，由於客戶數量強勁以及利潤率管理得當，零售業務第一季的結果落在我們年初預期的範圍內。鑑於我們持續觀察到因冬季與夏季電力成本較高而造成的年度內形狀（intra-year shaping），我們預期零售業務幾乎全部的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 將在第二季與第四季實現。

Accordingly, we are confident in our ability to meet or exceed the midpoint of the $905 million to $1.065 billion range of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for retail that we announced on our third quarter 2022 call.

因此，我們有信心達成或超越我們在 2022 年第三季電話會議中公布之零售業務持續營運調整後 EBITDA 目標區間（9.05 億美元至 10.65 億美元）的中位數。

Turning now to Slide 10, I'll share a quick update on capital allocation. As of May 4, we had executed approximately $2.7 billion of share repurchases since the beginning of the program in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to utilize the remaining approximately $1.55 billion of authorization by year-end 2024, with at least $1 billion of cumulative repurchases expected in calendar year 2023, as originally planned.

接著看第 10 張投影片，我將簡要更新資本配置情況。截至 5 月 4 日，自 2021 年第四季啟動該計畫以來，我們已執行約 27 億美元的庫藏股回購。我們預期在 2024 年底前使用剩餘約 15.5 億美元的授權額度，並如原先規劃，預計 2023 曆年累計回購至少 10 億美元。

Notably, as of May 4, our outstanding share count had fallen to approximately 373 million shares, a significant reduction of approximately 23% from the aggregate number of shares that were outstanding when the program started in November 2021.

值得注意的是，截至 5 月 4 日，我們的流通在外股數已降至約 3.73 億股，較 2021 年 11 月計畫開始時的流通股總數大幅減少約 23%。

As a result of our robust and consistent share repurchases, our dividend program of approximately $300 million per year, or approximately $75 million per quarter, continues to result in significant growth in the dividend per share received by our shareholders. To that end, the second quarter 2023 common stack dividend of $0.204 per share, which is payable on June 30, 2023, is approximately 15% higher per share as compared to the dividend paid in the second quarter of 2022.

由於我們強勁且持續的庫藏股回購，加上每年約 3 億美元（或每季約 7,500 萬美元）的股利計畫，持續帶動股東每股股利的顯著成長。就此而言，2023 年第二季普通股每股股利為 0.204 美元，將於 2023 年 6 月 30 日支付，與 2022 年第二季支付的每股股利相比約提高 15%。

While we remain committed to consistently returning capital directly to our shareholders, we also remain steadfast in our commitment to a strong balance sheet. Accordingly, we continue to target a long-term net leverage ratio, excluding any nonrecourse debt at Vistra Zero of less than 3x.

在我們仍致力於持續直接向股東返還資本的同時，我們也同樣堅守維持強健資產負債表的承諾。因此，我們持續以長期淨槓桿比率為目標（不含 Vistra Zero 的任何無追索權債務）低於 3 倍。

Finally, our Vistra Zero growth remains on track. We have allocated over 90% of the net proceeds from the December 2021 Green preferred stock issuance and are focused on securing nonrecourse project or portfolio level financing to, among other things, support the growth CapEx needs of the company. We anticipate the first such financing to be in place no later than the end of this year.

最後，Vistra Zero 的成長仍按計畫推進。我們已配置 2021 年 12 月綠色優先股發行所得淨額的 90% 以上，並專注於取得無追索權的專案或投資組合層級融資，以在其他用途之外支援公司成長資本支出（CapEx）需求。我們預期第一筆此類融資最遲將於今年年底前到位。

Turning to Slide 11, we provide an update on the out-year forward price curves as of May 4. As you recall, we announced last year on the first quarter call that we estimated a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion of potential ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities for years 2023 through 2025 based on April 29, 2022 curves. While we do not expect to update this range before initiating guidance for each applicable year, we did want to note that we currently believe there is upside to the range of each of 2024, 2025 and now 2026 in light of the higher prices in our primary markets and the continued execution of our comprehensive hedging program that has now hedged 2023 through 2025 at approximately 86% on average across all markets, with the balance of 2023 hedged approximately 99% and 2024 hedged approximately 96%.

接著看第 11 張投影片，我們提供截至 5 月 4 日的遠期價格曲線更新。如各位所記得，我們去年在第一季電話會議中宣布，基於 2022 年 4 月 29 日的曲線，我們估計 2023 至 2025 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的潛在中位數機會區間為 35 億至 37 億美元。雖然在對各適用年度啟動指引之前，我們不預期更新此區間，但我們想指出，鑑於主要市場價格走高，以及我們持續執行全面避險計畫（目前已將 2023 至 2025 年在所有市場的平均避險比例提高至約 86%，其中 2023 年剩餘部分約避險 99%，2024 年約避險 96%），我們目前認為 2024、2025，乃至現在的 2026 年，各年度的區間均存在上行空間。

As you would expect, 2026 is significantly less hedged, which creates a significant opportunity but also a wider range given our open position.

如各位所預期，2026 年的避險程度顯著較低，這在我們持有較大未避險部位的情況下，既帶來顯著機會，也使得可能區間更為寬廣。

We remain committed to executing against our 2023 strategic priorities and translating that success into shareholder returns. We look forward to updating you on our progress on our second quarter call.

我們仍致力於落實 2023 年的策略重點，並將成果轉化為股東報酬。我們期待在第二季電話會議中向各位更新進展。

With that, operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

接下來，接線員，我們準備開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（接線員指示）今天的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shahriar Pourreza。

I think you sort of touched on this quickly, but I guess what point could you revisit and update the 2-year commentary you guys have been providing? And then obviously, those numbers have been floated around first in '22. I guess what kind of O&M inflation is embedded in those? Maybe put differently, we've seen a few of your peers kind of flagged strong increases in O&M cost as of late. So I guess, what are you guys seeing in those numbers as well?

我想你們剛才有稍微提到，但我想問的是，你們大概會在什麼時間點重新檢視並更新你們一直提供的兩年期評論？另外，顯然那些數字最早是在 2022 年提出的。我想問，裡面隱含了多少 O&M（營運與維護）通膨？換個說法，我們最近看到你們一些同業提到 O&M 成本大幅上升。所以我想問，你們在那些數字裡看到的情況是什麼？

This is Jim. Thanks for your question. The 2-year, if I understood your question, the 2-year view you're speaking to is about '24 and '25. And as you noted, we had put out the $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion range last spring when we started to see the forward curves move and we've been opportunistically hedging into that. When we got to the end of '22 and we started to talk about '23, obviously, we put out a $3.7 billion midpoint, which was at the upper end of this midpoint range, which was a construct we were trying to use to signal to the market that we see the earnings power of the business improving, but there's still a lot unhedged at the time we first put it out.

我是 Jim。謝謝你的問題。如果我理解正確，你所說的兩年期觀點是指 2024 年和 2025 年。正如你提到的，我們在去年春天、當我們開始看到遠期曲線變動時，提出了 35 億至 37 億美元的區間，並且一直把握時機進行避險。到了 2022 年底、我們開始談 2023 年時，顯然我們提出了 37 億美元的中位數，位於該中位數區間的上緣；我們試圖用這個架構向市場傳達：我們看到業務的獲利能力正在提升，但在我們最初提出時仍有相當部分尚未避險。

Since we've continued to hedge, we see us continuing to move up. So using the May 4 curves, and this is without including Energy Harbor, we see that midpoint opportunities for '24 to '25 start to move up higher than the $3.7 billion. And we see it in sort of the $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion range. Again, this is the midpoint of those opportunities. So when we would formalize guidance at the end of this year for 2024, we'll have a bigger range around that just given the inherent variability of managing through the business.

隨著我們持續避險，我們看到中位數機會持續上移。因此，以 5 月 4 日的曲線來看（且未納入 Energy Harbor），我們看到 2024 至 2025 年的中位數機會開始高於 37 億美元，大約落在 37 億至 38 億美元的範圍。同樣地，這是那些機會的中位數。因此，當我們在今年年底正式提出 2024 年指引時，考量到經營管理本身的內在變動性，該中位數周圍會有更大的區間。

But as we continue to perfect these hedges, we still have some open, obviously, in '25 or more hedged than '24. We see this earnings power definitely improving for '24, '25. And in '26, we're even more open. And if you roll forward to '26, we see an increase even further from these numbers.

但隨著我們持續完善這些避險，我們在 2025 年仍然有一些未避險部位；顯然 2025 年的避險程度高於 2024 年。我們確實看到 2024、2025 年的獲利能力在改善。而在 2026 年，我們的未避險部位更大。如果把時間往 2026 年推進，我們看到相較於這些數字還會進一步上升。

Okay. Perfect. And just -- I'm sorry to ask, but what's the O&M inflation you guys are embedding in those numbers?

好的。非常好。再請教一下——抱歉我再問一次——你們在那些數字中隱含的 O&M 通膨是多少？

Yes. So the O&M inflation, it depends on which category we're referring to, Shahriar. We're using it, we have consistently seen something between 3% and 10%, depending on the nature of the input. Labor is different from OEMs doing outages which is different from variable chemicals we use in the power production process. But it's in that range. And we are obviously, as a competitive company, we're contracting and procuring as competitively as we possibly can. But we don't have any go-gets, if you will, built into the numbers to -- that we are trying to solve for. This is our best line of sight of what it takes to run this business.

好的。關於 O&M 通膨，Shahriar，這取決於我們指的是哪一類。我們一貫看到大約介於 3% 到 10% 之間，視投入項目的性質而定。勞動力與原廠（OEM）執行停機檢修不同，也與我們在發電流程中使用的可變動化學品不同。但大致就在這個範圍內。當然，作為一家具競爭力的公司，我們會盡可能以最具競爭力的方式簽約與採購。但我們沒有在這些數字裡加入任何所謂的「額外要去爭取」的假設來解題；這是我們目前對經營這項業務所需成本的最佳可視度。

Perfect. Perfect. And then just I'd love to get maybe a pulse check on sort of the legislative cycle right now and your expectations for resource adequacy in ERCOT. Things seem to be a little quieter now that the Senate has passed several items. I guess what are your expectations for pathways forward as the session comes to a close?

很好。很好。接著我想請你們談談目前立法週期的進展，以及你們對 ERCOT 資源充足性（resource adequacy）的預期。參議院通過了幾項法案後，現在看起來稍微安靜一些。我想問，隨著會期接近尾聲，你們對後續推進路徑的預期是什麼？

Sure. shahriar, it is coming down in the final 3 weeks in Austin, I do think there's been a lot of attention and, appropriately, so on reliability, and we've talked about that, especially when you consider that Texas is the nation's leader in wind and soon to be the nation's leader in solar which helps from a sustainability point of view. But we've actually seen that there's needs to bolster the grid from a dispatchable generation point of view.

當然。Shahriar，在奧斯汀的最後三週確實進入收尾階段。我認為外界對可靠性（reliability）給予了大量關注，而且這是恰當的；我們也談過這點，特別是考量到德州是全美風電領先者，且很快也將成為全美太陽能領先者，這在永續角度有所助益。但我們也確實看到，從可調度發電（dispatchable generation）的角度來看，電網仍需要加強。

That was the impetus for the performance credit mechanism that was adopted by the Public Utility Commission in January. And the timing is such that, depending on how the legislative process wraps up, the stakeholder process would begin for this PCM mechanism to be able to create a market mechanism to reward reliability.

這正是公用事業委員會（Public Utility Commission）在 1 月採納績效信用機制（performance credit mechanism, PCM）的動因。時程方面，取決於立法程序如何收尾，利害關係人程序將會啟動，以便就此 PCM 機制建立一套市場機制，用以獎勵可靠性。

There's still many bills being considered in the House and the Senate, so it's hard to predict what might pass. But I think from our standpoint, the PCM is meant to address not only the incentives for new generation, but ensuring that existing generation doesn't retire prematurely because some of the other forms of generation are getting production tax credits which, as you know, can create downward pressure on market power prices.

眾議院與參議院仍在審議許多法案，因此很難預測哪些可能會通過。但我認為，從我們的角度來看，PCM 的目的不僅是要處理新發電的誘因，也要確保既有發電資產不會因為其他某些發電形式獲得生產稅收抵免（PTC）而過早退役；如你所知，這些抵免可能會對市場電力價格造成下行壓力。

So from our standpoint, we think the reliability focus is important. If the PCM is well designed and it moves forward, we think that will bolster the competitive market. We obviously want to continue to see support for our integrated model in Texas. We think it's a business that serves customers well. And we would intend to invest in building gas-fired generation if there is a well-designed PCM.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們認為聚焦可靠性很重要。如果 PCM 設計得當並且推進落地，我們認為這將強化競爭性市場。我們顯然也希望在德州持續看到對我們整合式模式的支持。我們認為這是一項能很好服務客戶的業務。而且如果有一個設計良好的 PCM，我們也打算投資興建燃氣發電。

So we think policymakers are focused on the right aspects of what it takes to keep the grid affordable, reliable and sustainable. And Shahriar, our view is, is we want to be part of that solution here in our home state.

所以我們認為，政策制定者正聚焦在維持電網可負擔、可靠且可持續所需的正確面向。Shahriar，我們的看法是，我們希望在我們的家鄉州成為解決方案的一部分。

But we still have 3 weeks to go. And we'll obviously have to provide more updates as the session wraps up, but I do think the attention on this is well deserved, and we'll be involved as much as we can through this session and the stakeholder process.

但我們還有 3 週時間。隨著會期接近尾聲，我們顯然還需要提供更多更新；不過我確實認為，對此議題的關注是實至名歸的，而我們也會在本次會期以及利害關係人流程中，盡可能多地參與。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Look, I wanted to just follow up on the success of the Energy Harbor transaction. Obviously, you got a lot of folks' attention. Can you talk a little bit about your thoughts about looking into potential further acquisitive activities. Obviously, there's a North Star around buybacks and commitments there in and maintaining that throughout. But can you talk today, especially in reaction to Energy Harbor, how you would think about perhaps leaning in further to whether that's nuclear or other angles that could include retail or renewables or what have you. But would love to hear your thoughts.

我想追問一下 Energy Harbor 交易成功的情況。顯然，你們引起了很多人的注意。你能否談談你們對於進一步進行潛在併購活動的想法？當然，你們的「北極星」是回購以及相關承諾，並且在整個過程中維持這些承諾。但今天能否談談，特別是針對 Energy Harbor 的反應，你們會如何思考是否要更進一步加碼——不論是核能或其他方向，可能包含零售、再生能源等等。很想聽聽你們的看法。

Julien, look, we have generally stayed away from commenting on M&A. I think it's one of those activities that opportunistically comes your way and you have to be prepared for it. You have to always be what we'd say, hang around the hoop a little bit on opportunities.

Julien，你看，我們一般都避免評論併購（M&A）。我認為這類活動往往是機會性地出現在你面前，而你必須為此做好準備。你必須一直保持我們所說的——在機會附近多待一會兒、隨時準備出手。

However, I think the Energy Harbor transaction is a very significant one for us. Certainly, it's our focus right now, not only getting through the approval process with the key agencies but the integration activities with the team at Energy Harbor and with our team. As you know, it's transformative in a lot of ways because we use it as a platform to highlight just how much of a business we have with the carbon-free aspects of our business. And obviously, we're going to more than double that amount of generation with this transaction.

不過，我認為 Energy Harbor 這筆交易對我們而言非常重要。當然，我們目前的重點不僅是完成與主要主管機關的核准流程，也包括與 Energy Harbor 團隊以及我們團隊的整合工作。如你所知，這在很多方面具有轉型意義，因為我們把它當作一個平台，來凸顯我們業務中無碳（carbon-free）部分的規模有多大。而且顯然，透過這筆交易，我們的發電量將增加到原來的兩倍以上。

The strong balance sheet and the returning capital, the reason we keep repeating the 4 priorities is because we have to find things that fit within those 4 priorities. And not everything is going to. And I think that's a commitment we've made I think the Energy Harbor transaction reinforced. We mean those, that we're going to stick with those 4 core principles.

強健的資產負債表與資本回饋——我們之所以一再重申那 4 項優先事項，是因為我們必須找到符合這 4 項優先事項的事情；並不是每件事都符合。我認為這是一項我們做出的承諾，而 Energy Harbor 交易也再次強化了這點。我們是認真的——我們會堅持這 4 項核心原則。

So Julien, nothing is ever off the table from the standpoint of looking at it, but it needs to fit the criteria that we've laid out and we're going to remain disciplined in that regard.

所以 Julien，從「願意評估」的角度來看，沒有什麼是絕對不在考量範圍內的，但它必須符合我們已經提出的標準，而我們也會在這方面保持紀律。

Look, and then with respect to the transaction itself, I mean, can you comment a little bit? I mean, it seems like there might be a slight delay in the close of the transaction. Just what caused that? Is that approval process or just the execution process? And then related, you talked about a significant jump in generation here. You all obviously have a pretty sizable retail platform. You saw some quarter-over-quarter declines in retail customers. How do you think about building out that retail platform a little bit further here in light of Energy Harbor? Or is that less of a priority considering things like the nuclear PTCs that might deemphasize the need to want to (inaudible) balance that retail business with generation, if you will.

另外，關於這筆交易本身——你能否稍微評論一下？看起來交易完成（close）可能會有些微延後。造成原因是什麼？是核准流程，還是執行流程？另外相關地，你提到發電量會顯著提升。你們本來就有相當大的零售平台，但你們看到零售客戶數在季對季有所下滑。結合 Energy Harbor 後，你們如何看待進一步擴大零售平台？或者，考量到像核能 PTC 這類因素可能會弱化「需要」用零售來平衡發電業務的必要性（如果可以這麼說），這是否就不是那麼優先？（聽不清）

Sure. Well, on the first matter, I think we're progressing well on the approvals process. We announced the transaction early March. We made the filings -- the key filings in April. We believe the NRC is working towards an early October approval which, to be on a 6-month track for a license transfer, we think is actually on the more efficient side of the scale in terms of where we would go. We've talked about closing this in the fourth quarter, and I think that is achievable.

好的。第一個問題，我認為我們在核准流程上進展良好。我們在 3 月初宣布這筆交易，並在 4 月提交了相關申請——主要的申請文件。我們相信 NRC 正朝著 10 月初核准的方向推進；以執照移轉 6 個月的時程來看，我們認為這其實算是相對有效率的一端。我們先前談到會在第四季完成交割，我認為這是可以達成的。

Julien, as you know, we don't have anything built into our numbers for 2023 related to Energy Harbor. So hopefully, there's some opportunity there. But just I think we're tracking well. There's nothing that we're concerned about at this stage, but it's still early in the approval process. But so far, so good.

Julien，如你所知，我們在 2023 年的數字中並沒有納入任何與 Energy Harbor 相關的內容。所以希望那裡會有一些上行空間。但就目前而言，我認為我們的進度追蹤良好。現階段沒有任何讓我們擔心的事情，但核准流程仍在早期階段。不過到目前為止，一切順利。

On the retail side, our reduction in counts has been more outside of the ERCOT market. We've made some strategic exits in a couple of states. The Energy Harbor platform does give us an opportunity to bolster some of the areas where we do currently operate in retail. And obviously, it gives us an asset base, including some attributes like the emissions-free energy credits which customers are becoming more interested in that the nuclear units can offer.

在零售方面，我們的客戶數下降主要發生在 ERCOT 市場之外。我們在幾個州做了一些策略性退出。Energy Harbor 這個平台確實讓我們有機會強化我們目前已經在零售營運的部分領域。顯然，它也帶來一個資產基礎，其中包含一些屬性，例如無排放能源憑證（emissions-free energy credits）；客戶對這類產品的興趣正在提高，而核能機組可以提供這些。

So I like our retail. We like our integrated model. We do think the Midwest, Northeast market reforms in some of the retail markets is still warranted. As we've talked about, Julien, the level of competition there in terms of the degree that you can differentiate your products there is still rather limited. It's more of a hedge channel and being able to serve customers with your assets than it is a true business-to-consumer or business-to-business differentiated marketing strategy. We hope to get there in some of these markets, and we'll continue our efforts from a stakeholder outreach perspective.

所以我喜歡我們的零售業務。我們也喜歡我們的整合式模式。我們確實認為，中西部、東北部在一些零售市場的市場改革仍然是必要的。正如我們之前談到的，Julien，那些市場的競爭程度——也就是你能在多大程度上讓產品差異化——仍相當有限。它更像是一個避險通路，以及用你的資產來服務客戶，而不是真正的 B2C 或 B2B、以差異化行銷策略為核心的模式。我們希望在其中一些市場能走到那一步，並且會從利害關係人溝通的角度持續努力。

But the integrated model is certainly well intact with this acquisition because it comes with a retail business in addition to generation, but we do need to see these markets open up a little bit from a reform and being open to innovation in these markets the way Texas has been open innovation. And so we do have some work to do there, Julien.

但透過這次收購，整合式模式當然仍然完整，因為它除了發電之外也包含零售業務；不過，我們確實需要看到這些市場在改革上更開放一些，並且像德州那樣對創新更開放。因此，Julien，我們在那方面還有一些工作要做。

Our next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Michael Sullivan。

I wanted to just confirm on the upside you're seeing in '24 all the way out to '26 that, that's based on basically current curves? And then if so, maybe if you could just give us your own point of view on where you think things could go just based on supply/demand dynamics in your major markets?

我想確認一下，你們在 2024 年一路到 2026 年所看到的上行空間，是基本上建立在目前的遠期曲線（curves）之上嗎？如果是的話，能否也請你們分享一下你們自己的觀點：基於你們主要市場的供需動態，你們認為未來可能會怎麼走？

Michael. Thank you. Yes, we based this off of using the May 4 curve. So it's a function, obviously, of where we have hedged, what we still have open and the curves as of May 4, not that the liquidity is infinitely deep in some of these outer years, but it's not based on a point of view. It is based on curves. We know that this is something that you and our investors are trying to follow, which is are we seeing some upside.

Michael，謝謝。是的，我們是以 5 月 4 日的曲線為基礎。因此，這顯然取決於我們已經做了多少避險、還有多少部位是開放的，以及截至 5 月 4 日的曲線；並不是說在某些較遠年度的流動性有無限深度，但這不是基於主觀觀點，而是基於曲線。我們知道，這是你以及我們投資人想要追蹤的事情之一，也就是我們是否看到一些上行空間。

As Kris laid out in his chart, from the time we first initiated the strategy of talking about a 3-year horizon, the curves have actually improved in those outer years. So while we've seen the front of the curves come down because of a number of factors, I'm going to ask Stephen Muscato, our President of Wholesale, to comment, we've seen the out-years actually strengthen. And we think that, that's actually a sign of opportunity for Vistra long term. But in terms of the dynamics by market, I think it might be helpful for Steve to share a few thoughts as to how we see these markets that being impacted by some of the factors, obviously, late last fall and through this year and where we see that headed. Steve?

正如 Kris 在圖表中所說，自從我們首次啟動並採用「談 3 年展望」的策略以來，那些較遠年度的曲線其實已經改善了。因此，雖然由於多種因素我們看到曲線前端下滑——我會請我們的批發業務總裁 Stephen Muscato 來評論——但我們看到遠期年度其實走強。我們認為，這其實是 Vistra 長期機會的一個訊號。不過就各市場的動態而言，我想讓 Steve 分享一些看法會更有幫助：我們如何看待這些市場受到一些因素影響——顯然是去年秋末到今年以來——以及我們認為未來會往哪個方向走。Steve？

Thanks, Jim. Sure, I would add, if we start with natural gas, which is kind of a big driver behind power prices, the marginal shale has now become the Haynesville , which is a dry shale . We're seeing limited growth in the Utica and the Marcellus due to limited pipeline takeaway. And all the growth in the Permian that's happening, even though that's a wet shale, is not the marginal shale. It's being used to really feed growing LNG export market.

謝謝，Jim。當然，我補充一下：如果我們先從天然氣開始——它是電價背後的一個重要驅動因素——邊際頁岩氣（marginal shale）現在已經變成 Haynesville，這是一個乾性頁岩（dry shale）。由於管線外運能力（pipeline takeaway）受限，我們看到 Utica 與 Marcellus 的成長有限。而 Permian 的所有成長，即使那是濕性頁岩（wet shale），也不是邊際頁岩。那些產量主要是用來供應正在成長的 LNG 出口市場。

So that's really provided support on natural gas which is why you're seeing it stay $4 and above at least '25 and beyond. The front end of the curve is really influenced by some excess storage inventories that are due to the mild weather that if you look going forward, if you assume normal weather, should lend itself out once you get to the late '24, early '25 period.

因此，這確實對天然氣形成支撐，這也是為什麼你會看到至少到 2025 年及之後，價格維持在 4 美元以上。曲線前端主要受到一些過剩的庫存影響，而這些庫存是因溫和天氣所致；如果往前看，假設天氣回到正常水準，到了 2024 年末、2025 年初這段期間，這些影響應該會逐步消化。

In terms of, like, say, fundamentals in each market, you're seeing this integration of renewables particularly challenging in PJM. You see a lot of coal leaving the stack over time but a slow incremental movement in renewables. Not only renewables is less effective in markets like PJM because lower capacity factors, it doesn't have the same irradiance or wind speeds that you see in markets like Texas and MISO. But it also takes a lot to replace it. You could see 5 to 9 to 1 replacement levels needed in order to maintain same levels of reliability.

就各個市場的基本面而言，例如你會看到可再生能源的整合在 PJM 特別具挑戰性。你會看到煤電隨時間逐步退出供給序列，但可再生能源只是緩慢、漸進地增加。不僅是在 PJM 這類市場，可再生能源因容量因子較低而效能較差——它沒有像德州與 MISO 那樣的日照強度或風速——而且要用它來替代也需要很大的量。你可能會看到為了維持相同的可靠度水準，需要 5 比 1 到 9 比 1 的替代比例。

You also have problems with East Coast gas markets to the extent they can recouple with European markets, that could also cause some volatility.

此外，東岸天然氣市場也有問題；若其在某種程度上能與歐洲市場重新連動，也可能造成一些波動。

And I think Jim mentioned some of the things that are already happening in ERCOT in terms of reform, solar pushing the peak out, you only have 1-hour batteries coming into ERCOT, which really doesn't help on an extended heatwave that may occur or extended cold point.

而且我想 Jim 提到了一些在 ERCOT 已經發生的改革動向，例如太陽能把尖峰往後推移；進入 ERCOT 的多數是 1 小時電池，這對於可能出現的長時間熱浪或長時間寒冷時段其實幫助不大。

And so I think uncertainty around gas and coal assets and determine what happens with the legislature in addition to an aging fleet provides this collision we're seeing over time, which is going to win out renewables or fossil fuels? At least in the intermediate term, it appears gas is going to be needed, it's going to be stressed and so we think that's supporting fundamentals out the longterm.

因此，我認為圍繞天然氣與煤炭資產的不確定性、以及立法機關將如何作為，再加上機組老化，形成了我們隨時間看到的這種碰撞：究竟是可再生能源會勝出，還是化石燃料會勝出？至少在中期來看，天然氣似乎仍然是必要的、也將承受壓力，因此我們認為這在長期上支撐了基本面。

Steve, thanks for that. I'll just add, Michael, that in addition to the dynamics we're seeing of the resource mix and how it's changing, we've seen obviously a handful of significant environmental regulations that have been issued and potentially forthcoming that could also put some pressure on assets that currently are providing a reliability service on these grids.

Steve，謝謝你的說明。我再補充一下，Michael，除了我們看到的資源組合變化及其動態之外，顯然也已經發布、且可能還會推出一些重要的環境法規，這些也可能對目前在這些電網上提供可靠度服務的資產帶來一些壓力。

And our assets, even with a Vistra Tradition and a Vistra Vision, coal is 25% to 30% on a go-forward basis of Vistra Tradition. It's predominantly our combined cycle gas fleet. We think that has a lot of value in helping these grids be able to sustain a reliable operation while integrating more renewables.

就我們的資產而言，即便在 Vistra Tradition 與 Vistra Vision 的架構下，煤電在 Vistra Tradition 的未來基礎上約占 25% 到 30%；主要仍是我們的燃氣複循環機組。我們認為這在協助這些電網於整合更多可再生能源的同時維持可靠運轉方面，具有很高的價值。

And then, of course, our Vistra Vision is anchored by Vistra Zero and also Comanche Peak and Energy Harbor assets on a go-forward basis.

當然，我們的 Vistra Vision 在未來基礎上則以 Vistra Zero 為核心，同時也包括 Comanche Peak 與 Energy Harbor 的資產。

So we like our asset position to backstop and what we call firm up our customer commitments. And we think the horizon, whether it's the economics of what happens in competitive markets or whether it's actually some of the incentives and the rules that could come forward from an environmental standpoint, these assets are going to be needed for reliability purposes. And that's our thesis with why we think this business has a long-term earnings potential that we see actually growing through time.

因此，我們喜歡我們的資產配置，因為它能作為後盾，並支撐（我們所說的）強化我們對客戶的承諾。我們認為，無論是競爭市場中的經濟性走向，或是從環境面可能推出的一些激勵與規則，這些資產都將因可靠度需求而被需要。這也是我們的核心論點：為何我們認為這項業務具備長期獲利潛力，而且我們看到它會隨時間成長。

Okay. That was super comprehensive. Maybe just one quick follow-up there on the environmental rules. So from where you're standing right now, Jim, like any near-term impact in terms of whether it be investments that you have to put into some of your coal plants that you were planning to keep online?

好的。那非常全面。我可能就環境規則再快速追問一下。所以以你目前的角度來看，Jim，近期是否會有任何影響——例如你們必須對一些原本計畫要持續運轉的燃煤電廠投入額外投資？

Not in the near term, Michael. A couple of things. Obviously, the CCR ELG rules we have talked about for years, and that does have impacts on our coal fleet, which we've communicated multiple times that will have retirement dates in that sort of '27, '28 horizon except for 2 of our sites.

近期不會，Michael。有幾點。顯然，CCR 與 ELG 規則我們已經談了很多年，這確實會影響我們的燃煤機組；我們也多次對外溝通，除兩個場址外，其餘將在大約 2027、2028 年那個時間帶退役。

CASPR, or the good neighbor rule, it did -- it was recently stayed. So you have an opportunity here for the state of Texas to revisit this rule, obviously, in the fifth circuit. It's going to take some time to sort that out. That could impact some of our old gas units, could impact the Hubbard lake if it were to be fully implemented.

CASPR，或稱「睦鄰條款」（good neighbor rule），它——最近已被暫緩執行（stayed）。因此，德州在第五巡迴上訴法院的程序中，有機會重新檢視這項規則。釐清這些需要一些時間。若全面落實，可能會影響我們一些老舊燃氣機組，也可能影響 Hubbard Lake。

But I think there were good reasons for the challenge, and we're certainly not the only party in that challenge. There's many industry participants outside of even power as well as the state. But no, Michael, we don't have any anticipated large CapEx spend as a result, but we stay active.

但我認為提出挑戰有其充分理由，而且我們當然不是唯一提出挑戰的一方；除了電力產業之外，還有許多產業參與者以及州政府也在其中。不過，Michael，因為這件事我們不預期會有任何大額資本支出（CapEx），但我們會持續積極關注。

Again, reliability is important, and we think that this transition that's occurring on the grid needs to be done so thoughtfully. But nothing -- no near-term impacts with the state, maybe a little bit pushed out from that standpoint in terms of impact on our fleet.

再說一次，可靠度很重要，我們認為電網正在發生的這場轉型需要非常審慎地推進。但就州層面而言，近期沒有——沒有近期影響；從影響我們機組的角度看，可能只是稍微往後延。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 David Arcaro。

I wanted to check on the retail business. Just wanted to confirm, is that on track for the year given the first quarter results? Are you going to need to pursue some more proactive initiatives to keep kind of in line with the guidance range for this year? Or is this really just a more natural ebb and flow of the EBITDA results for retail?

我想確認一下零售業務。想請教，考量第一季的結果，今年是否仍在軌道上？你們是否需要採取更積極的措施，才能大致維持在今年指引區間內？還是這其實只是零售 EBITDA 結果較自然的起伏？

Yes. Thanks for the question, David. As we noted in the comments, the loss of $29 million, that was expected. That was within the range of what we expected when we set the guidance. So that's not far off of exactly what we were expecting going forward.

是的，謝謝你的問題，David。如同我們在評論中提到的，虧損 2,900 萬美元是預期之內的；在我們設定指引時，這就在我們預期的範圍內。因此，這與我們對未來的預期相當一致。

We continue, and I noted this, but we continue to expect retail to be able to meet or exceed the midpoint of its guidance range that we provided in the third quarter of last year. We don't -- we see some timing effects over the balance of the year and some margin and count benefits that have carried through that we see will offset some of the pressures they saw from weather in the first quarter.

我們仍然——我也提過——預期零售業務能達到或超過我們在去年第三季提供之指引區間的中位數。我們不——我們看到今年剩餘期間會有一些時點效應，以及一些已延續下來的毛利與客戶數量（count）方面的利多，我們認為這些將抵銷第一季因天氣帶來的部分壓力。

So we don't see anything in particular over the balance of the year that we need to stretch to meet that goal.

所以我們不認為在今年剩餘期間需要特別「拉伸」才能達成那個目標。

Again, as we would note, the shape continues to be that we're going to see pressure on the retail side from an EBITDA perspective in the first and third quarters. And the second and fourth quarters is where they're going to make substantially all of the EBITDA. And that's because they typically have flat prices through the year, but the power costs in the winter and summer months are the highest. So there's some pressure on EBITDA in the first and third quarters, and the second and fourth quarters is where they make it up.

再重申一次，如同我們會指出的，型態仍然是：從 EBITDA 的角度看，零售端在第一季與第三季會承受壓力；而第二季與第四季則會貢獻幾乎全部的 EBITDA。原因在於他們通常全年採用相對平坦的售價，但冬季與夏季的電力成本最高。因此第一季與第三季 EBITDA 會有壓力，而第二季與第四季則會把它補回來。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then a similar topic. I was just curious what the latest trends you're seeing are in customers moving to default service. Is that still a trend that's happening? Or which direction are you seeing right now?

了解。好的，這很有幫助。接著是類似的問題。我想請教你們看到的最新趨勢：客戶轉去預設服務（default service）的情況如何？這仍然是正在發生的趨勢嗎？或你們目前看到的方向是哪一邊？

David, we're still seeing some default prices increase in the markets due to their kind of delayed procurement. But you are seeing competitive offers in the market that are now south of that default level. So you are not seeing the same level of migration to default. You're going to start seeing and we are seeing folks moving from the fault back into the competitive arena. That is part of this market dynamic, I was mentioning that from a reform standpoint. Ideally, you would have a one-to-one relationship with the customer and not have a customer bouncing between a utility and a retailer. But at this stage of the game, obviously, prices have crested. They've started to come off in the wholesale market and that's creating opportunities for our retail business, but it's also creating some of the migration in some markets away from default. And default prices, because they're still increasing in some markets through May, that's going to create more and more savings opportunities for customers.

David，我們仍看到由於他們採購時點較延後，部分市場的預設價格在上升。但你也會看到市場上的競爭性報價現在已低於那個預設水準。因此，你不會看到同樣程度的客戶移轉到預設服務。你將開始看到——而我們也正在看到——一些人從預設服務回到競爭市場。這是我提到的、從改革角度來看的市場動態之一。理想狀況下，你會希望與客戶是一對一的關係，而不是讓客戶在公用事業與零售商之間來回跳動。但在目前這個階段，顯然價格已經見頂，批發市場價格也開始回落，這為我們的零售業務創造了機會，同時也在一些市場造成了客戶從預設服務移出的情況。而由於預設價格在部分市場仍會一路上升到 5 月，這將為客戶創造越來越多的節省機會。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

I just want to make sure, Jim, I sort of heard this clearly in the response to Shahriar's question earlier. For '24 and '25, the midpoint is in the $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion range and '26 is expected to be higher than that for the base business?

我只是想確認一下，Jim，我想我在你先前回覆 Shahriar 的問題時有聽清楚。對於 2024 年與 2025 年，基礎業務的中位數是在 37 億到 38 億美元區間，而 2026 年預期會高於這個水準？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay. And kind of above $900 million for Energy Harbor in 2026 as well.

好的。另外，2026 年 Energy Harbor 也會高於 9 億美元。

That is the view that we have. And obviously, we've talked about this on a hedged basis, which is largely open in '26, Energy Harbor. We're talking -- because we are -- '24, '25 numbers that we've given you have hedges in them for Energy Harbor. Once you get to '26, Energy Harbor is pretty open, we're pretty open. And actually, you could see Energy Harbor doing better than $900 million when you get out to 2026, again, at current curves.

這就是我們目前的看法。而且顯然，我們一直是以避險後（hedged）的基礎在談；在 2026 年，Energy Harbor 的避險部位大致上是開放的（largely open）。我們之所以這麼說——因為我們——我們給你的 2024、2025 年數字包含了 Energy Harbor 的避險。一旦到 2026 年，Energy Harbor 幾乎是開放的，我們也相當開放。事實上，若以目前的遠期曲線（current curves）來看，到了 2026 年你甚至可能看到 Energy Harbor 的表現優於 9 億美元。

Understood. Thank you for clarifying that for me. And then just as we look to the end of the year or maybe as you close on Energy Harbor , what should we expect in terms of disclosure? Is it going to be sort of a 3-year kind of like you did last year, EBITDA guidance and free cash flow range? Just any color you can share, that would be helpful.

了解。謝謝你幫我釐清。接著，當我們看向年底，或是你們完成 Energy Harbor 交易交割時，在資訊揭露方面我們應該期待什麼？會不會像你們去年那樣，提供一個 3 年期的 EBITDA 指引與自由現金流區間？任何你能分享的補充說明都會很有幫助。

Yes, we're going to -- I think we will obviously update guidance for the balance of 2023 and then 2024 at or the time of closing. We haven't made a decision as far as how far out we will continue to update. We'll probably continue to give directionally where we see things going. But I think we're -- I don't know that we plan to continue to consistently give 3-year ranges going forward. But as we get closer to closing, we'll work on getting updates to what we've put out so far.

是的，我們會——我想我們顯然會在交割時或交割前後，更新2023年剩餘期間以及2024年的指引。至於我們會持續更新到多遠的期間，我們尚未做出決定。我們可能會持續提供我們對走勢的方向性看法。但我想我們——我不確定我們是否計畫未來仍一貫提供三年期區間。不過，隨著交割時間接近，我們會著手更新目前已對外發布的內容。

Today's final question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

今天最後一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So actually two questions. One about flexibility in the financing of the Energy Harbor transaction. So I think we're all watching credit spreads. You have this deal financed. You have the bridge financing in place, but you plan to refinance it before the end of the year. So I'm just wondering if you could use, for example, any of the project level debt you mentioned at the renewable assets to maybe help yourself here. So that's one.

其實有兩個問題。第一個是關於 Energy Harbor 交易融資的彈性。我想我們都在關注信用利差。你們已為這筆交易安排融資，也已備妥過橋融資，但你們計畫在年底前再融資。所以我想請問，你們是否可以例如運用你們提到的再生能源資產層級（project level）的債務，來在這方面幫助自己？這是第一個。

And number two, a bigger picture question. So when you look at the mark-to-market of earnings of Vistra Vision and Vistra Tradition, at these prices, you are solving for deleveraging pretty quickly, probably '25, if not sooner. So would that change your thoughts about keeping these 2 businesses together, i.e., could we see a separation of Vistra Vision, again, which would unlock the true value of these assets?

第二個是更宏觀的問題。當你看 Vistra Vision 與 Vistra Tradition 的按市價（mark-to-market）盈餘，在目前價格下，你們很快就能解決去槓桿，可能在2025年，甚至更早。那這會改變你們對於把這兩個業務放在一起的想法嗎？也就是說，我們是否可能再次看到 Vistra Vision 的分拆，從而釋放這些資產的真實價值？

Angie, I'll handle the first question where you talked about financing of Energy Harbor. Obviously, we've -- when we announced the transaction, we put out some assumptions on the amount of cash that we would use and the amount of debt and the split of the debt. We continue to look for opportunities. First, as you saw, the margin deposits are coming back as expected. We saw about over $1 billion, approximately $1.2 billion, come back from the end of the year into -- through March 31. And we continue to see some marginal positive returns as we settle our hedges going through the summer this year.

Angie，我先回答你提到的 Energy Harbor 融資問題。顯然，我們——在宣布交易時，已提出一些假設，包括我們會使用多少現金、多少債務，以及債務的分配。我們仍在尋找機會。首先，如你所見，保證金存款正如預期回流。我們看到從年底到——截至3月31日這段期間，回流了超過10億美元，約12億美元。而且，隨著我們在今年夏季持續結算避險部位，我們也持續看到一些邊際上的正向回收。

So you can expect us to continue to optimize the amount of cash that we're going to use from the balance sheet as we -- and so it could be larger than the amount that we indicated on the call when we announced the transaction.

因此，你可以預期我們會持續最佳化我們將從資產負債表動用的現金金額——所以這個金額可能會高於我們在宣布交易時電話會議上所提到的數字。

As far as debt, we're going to look at a number of opportunities. We're going to be opportunistic as to timing and which market that we're in. So we're already preparing for those opportunities. And I think you'll see us look at a number of different avenues to raise that debt and not just wait until the end and try to do it all in one market.

至於債務方面，我們會評估多種機會。我們會在時點與所處市場上採取機會主義的做法。因此我們已在為這些機會做準備。我想你會看到我們透過多種不同途徑來籌措這些債務，而不是等到最後才在單一市場一次性完成。

And Angie, this is Jim. I'll add to Kris' comments on that. The idea, obviously, with this provision as it was conceived in order to execute on this transaction and keep a strong balance sheet did obviously do 2 things: It highlighted the amount of our earnings stream that has a zero greenhouse gas emissions profile, it also created an investment vehicle for some of the key shareholders for Energy Harbor to participate in this future entity.

Angie，我是 Jim。我補充一下 Kris 的評論。顯然，這項安排在構思時的目的，是為了推動這筆交易並維持強健的資產負債表，同時也確實達成兩件事：它凸顯了我們的獲利來源中有一部分具備零溫室氣體排放的特性；同時也為 Energy Harbor 的部分主要股東創造了一個投資載體，使其能參與這個未來實體。

I still step back and think about this as a customer business that is -- that has a changing sort of view of what they are looking for from the electric grid, including a more sustainable grid, but also a reliable grid. That, in essence, is Vistra. I mean that is what we're doing. We're doing it. We're expressing it through different transactions. Energy Harbor, obviously, is the most significant one. But with the Ambit and Crius and growing our retail presence and then our launching of our own opportunities with Vistra Zero.

我仍會退一步把這看作是一個客戶導向的業務——客戶對電網的期待正在改變，包括更永續的電網，但也包括可靠的電網。這本質上就是 Vistra。我的意思是，這就是我們正在做的事。我們透過不同交易來呈現它。Energy Harbor 顯然是最重要的一筆。但也包括 Ambit 與 Crius、擴大我們的零售版圖，以及我們透過 Vistra Zero 推出自有的成長機會。

So the Dis-Synergies that could come about by saying that this business is only this and this business is only that is not really how the electric grid functions. It is obviously a way in which we can think about investors and how they want to express their point of view of what they invest in. But I think we can achieve that even with the structure we have here.

因此，如果把這個業務說成只屬於這一塊、那個業務只屬於那一塊，所產生的「去協同效應」（dis-synergies），其實並不符合電網的運作方式。當然，這是一種讓我們思考投資人以及他們想如何表達其投資觀點的方式。但我認為，即使維持我們目前的架構，我們也能達成這些目標。

And most importantly, we're still a fundamentals-based view on value, and we invest in things that generate long-term sustainable cash flows. I know folks do talk to us about what do we think it might take to get a rerate, that's in some level out of our control. What is in our control is our ability to make good decisions, take advantage of the market opportunities as they come about, create some on our own and serve customers extremely well.

而且最重要的是，我們仍以基本面為基礎來看待價值，並投資於能產生長期、可持續現金流的事物。我知道大家確實會和我們討論，認為要如何才能讓估值重新評價（rerate），但那在某種程度上不在我們的控制範圍內。我們能控制的是：做出好的決策、在市場機會出現時加以把握、也能自行創造一些機會，並且把客戶服務做到極致。

And if we do that, we're going to return capital to shareholders very aggressively and pay down debt. And I think that's a winning model. It just may not come with the shorter-term moves that some people might want to see, but I think we're building an enduring business. And I think that's attractive for investors, and we're prepared to execute on that.

如果我們做到這些，我們就會非常積極地回饋資本給股東並償還債務。我認為那是一個成功的模式。它可能不一定伴隨某些人希望看到的短期動作，但我認為我們正在打造一家能長久經營的企業。我想這對投資人很有吸引力，而我們也已準備好去執行。

That's great. And just the last one question. So you mentioned on some of that we're seeing relatively limited liquidity in those forward curves for power, right? There's always this question, is gas more liquid versus power and maybe those spark spreads that look incredible in forward years. I mean, that are just to good to be true. So I mean, is there a way for you to basically capture that strength even with limited trading liquidity in power markets, either through some derivative transactions, gas-driven hedges, you name it.

很好。最後還有一個問題。你提到在電力的遠期曲線上，我們看到流動性相對有限，對吧？一直都有個問題：天然氣是否比電力更具流動性，以及那些在遠期年度看起來非常驚人的火電價差（spark spreads）——也就是好到讓人覺得不太真實的那種。所以，我的意思是，在電力市場交易流動性有限的情況下，你們是否有辦法基本上仍能捕捉那樣的強勢，例如透過某些衍生性交易、以天然氣為驅動的避險等等，你能想到的方式。

Yes, Angie, we can. Obviously, gas is more liquid than power. And gas many times is a good proxy for power. But to your point, it's not a perfect proxy for power.

是的，Angie，我們可以。顯然，天然氣的流動性比電力更高。而且很多時候，天然氣是電力的良好代理（proxy）。但如你所說，它並不是電力的完美代理。

And Steve, why don't you comment a little bit on some of the things that we do to try to use liquidity efficient means and how we're thinking about capturing this value. Because we are sensitive Angie, that the further out we go, depending on how we hedge, there obviously is a use of liquidity. We balance that into our thinking. And we're not also thinking that these curves just go away tomorrow.

Steve，要不你談談我們為了以更有效率地運用流動性的方式所做的一些事情，以及我們如何思考捕捉這些價值。因為我們也很敏感，Angie，越往遠期走，取決於我們如何避險，顯然會占用流動性。我們會把這點納入考量。同時我們也不認為這些曲線明天就會消失。

Because again, the fundamentals of what we think is happening with the electric grid, speak to reliability and assets with flexibility, which is our portfolio, and we think those are getting valued and they're getting valued differently than they have in the past because reliability was taken for granted.

因為再說一次，我們對電網正在發生什麼的基本面判斷，指向的是可靠性，以及具備彈性的資產——也就是我們的資產組合。我們認為這些正在被市場定價，而且其定價方式與過去不同，因為過去大家把可靠性視為理所當然。

Steve, why don't you comment a little bit on how we're thinking about locking this in.

Steve，你談談我們如何思考把這些鎖定下來。

Sure. I think for nuclear assets, gas is a decent proxy as a hedge, and so we are able to use gas instruments like the NYMEX and different NYMEX structures to at least either lock in value or put a range of value in place to kind of protect downside. But we do have the PTC, so that's a consideration.

好的。我認為對核能資產而言，天然氣作為避險代理是相當不錯的，因此我們能使用像 NYMEX 以及不同的 NYMEX 結構等天然氣工具，至少可以鎖定價值，或建立一個價值區間來保護下行風險。不過我們有 PTC（生產稅額抵免），所以這也是一項考量。

In terms of the sparks we do have to buy the gas in order to lock in the spark. And some of the specific gas locations is more challenging. I think ERCOT, PJM, there's more liquidity than places like New England for sure. But we try to do it in a liquidity efficient manner because as you get out further, the independent postings or the independent -- the initial margins that you have to post with exchanges can be quite expensive as you go out in time. And so we're looking at trying to increase credit using first lien structures when we go out that far or even bilaterally with counterparties to get that done. And so it's a little bit slower from both because we're trying to use liquidity efficient channels and also going directly to customers and on other wholesale counterparties.

至於火電價差（spark），我們必須買入天然氣才能鎖定 spark。而某些特定天然氣交割點（location）會更具挑戰。我認為 ERCOT、PJM 的流動性比像新英格蘭這類地區要高得多。但我們會盡量以更節省流動性的方式來操作，因為越往遠期走，你在交易所需要繳交的獨立申報/獨立——初始保證金（initial margins）會隨時間拉長而變得相當昂貴。因此，當我們做得那麼遠時，我們會考慮透過第一順位留置權（first lien）結構來提升信用，或是與交易對手進行雙邊交易（bilaterally）來完成。所以進度會慢一些，一方面是因為我們試圖使用更有效率的流動性管道，另一方面也是因為我們會直接面向客戶以及其他批發交易對手。

But it is something we've begun working on in '26, even out as far as '27, but it will definitely take time. And again, trying to use liquidity efficient channels is important like first liens and direct to bilaterals.

但這是我們已經開始著手的事情，涵蓋到2026年，甚至遠到2027年，不過確實需要時間。而且再次強調，使用更有效率的流動性管道很重要，例如第一順位留置權以及直接的雙邊交易。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。接下來我想把電話會議交回給 Jim Burke 先生，請他做結語。

Yes, thank you. I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. We appreciate your interest in Vistra. And please know that our Vistra team is working hard to execute well for the summer and our strategic priorities, and we look forward to giving you future updates. Have a great morning, everyone. Thanks.

好的，謝謝。我要感謝各位今天早上參與。我們感謝大家對 Vistra 的關注。也請大家放心，我們的 Vistra 團隊正努力在夏季營運與我們的策略優先事項上把執行做到位，我們也期待未來向各位提供最新進展。祝各位早安。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報，您現在可以掛線。