Vistra Corp (VST) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good Day, and welcome to the Vistra's First Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, that today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加瑞致達 2023 年第一季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁梅根·霍恩 (Meagan Horn)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast, discussing our first quarter 2023 results. Today's discussion is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and the earnings release.

早上好，感謝大家加入瑞致達的投資者網絡廣播，討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。今天的討論將通過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。在那裡，您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天的電話會議由瑞致達總裁兼首席執行官吉姆·伯克 (Jim Burke) 主持。以及瑞致達執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Kris Moldovan。瑞致達其他高級管理人員將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on our call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計原則財務指標的引用。瑞致達網站投資者關係部分的新聞稿和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了與最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量標準的對賬。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statement included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者演示文稿幻燈片 2 中包含的安全港聲明，其中解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、演示文稿中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非公認會計準則的使用財務措施。

Thank you. And I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

謝謝。我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官吉姆·伯克 (Jim Burke)。

Thank you, Meagan. Good morning. Thank you all for joining our first quarter 2023 earnings call. I will begin on Slide 5.

謝謝你，梅根。早上好。感謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。我將從幻燈片 5 開始。

We entered the year focused on our 4 strategic priorities, and we are making great strides. First, our integrated model continues to demonstrate its value and effectiveness. As you probably recall, we spent the majority of 2022 executing on our comprehensive hedging strategy that we said was locking in earnings opportunities for 2023 through 2025. We utilized available liquidity last year to support their strategy as we believe the additional EBITDA opportunities were significant.

今年我們重點關註四大戰略重點，並且正在取得長足進步。首先，我們的一體化模式不斷展現其價值和有效性。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2022 年的大部分時間裡都在執行全面的對沖策略，我們稱該策略鎖定了 2023 年至 2025 年的盈利機會。我們去年利用可用流動性來支持他們的策略，因為我們認為額外的 EBITDA 機會非常重要。

This first quarter of 2023, we saw this strategy translate into real value as mild weather was experienced across the major markets in which we operate which led to lower-than-expected cleared power prices. While we saw power prices clear at approximately $30 a megawatt hour on average, our first quarter results reflect a realization of average prices of around $45 per megawatt hour given we were highly hedged entering the year.

2023 年第一季度，我們看到這一戰略轉化為實際價值，因為我們運營的主要市場經歷了溫和的天氣，導致結算電價低於預期。雖然我們看到平均電價約為每兆瓦時 30 美元，但我們第一季度的業績反映了平均價格約為每兆瓦時 45 美元，因為我們在進入今年時進行了高度對沖。

In addition, in the outer years where we have been more open, we have seen prices and spark spreads increase as compared to this time last year. We have continued to opportunistically hedge to secure an increasing out-year earnings potential. We believe this is important, not only because it provides an enhanced resiliency of our earnings profile despite an uncertain commodity market but also because it ensures we can deliver on our commitments to reliably serve our customers, consistently return capital to shareholders, maintain a strong balance sheet and transform our fleet as we strengthen our position for the long term.

此外，在我們更加開放的外部年份，我們發現價格和火花價差與去年同期相比有所增加。我們繼續進行機會主義對沖，以確保年度盈利潛力不斷增加。我們認為這很重要，不僅因為它在大宗商品市場不確定的情況下增強了我們盈利狀況的彈性，而且因為它確保我們能夠履行我們的承諾，可靠地服務我們的客戶，持續向股東返還資本，保持強勁的平衡在我們鞏固我們的長期地位的同時，對我們的機隊進行調整和改造。

Second, our return of capital to our shareholders remained consistent and robust. Kris will provide a detailed update on our capital allocation plan in just a moment, but I want to highlight that of the aggregate $4.25 billion share repurchase authorization, we have returned approximately $2.7 billion to shareholders from November 2021 through May 4, 2023. Additionally, we are on track to pay $300 million in common stock dividends in 2023 as planned, with our Board approving a second quarter dividend the amount of $0.204, representing an approximately 15% increase over the second quarter dividend paid in 2022.

其次，我們對股東的資本回報保持一致和強勁。 Kris 稍後將提供有關我們資本分配計劃的詳細更新信息，但我想強調的是，在 2021 年 11 月至 2023 年 5 月 4 日期間總計 42.5 億美元的股票回購授權中，我們已向股東返還約 27 億美元。我們有望按計劃在 2023 年支付 3 億美元的普通股股息，董事會批准第二季度股息 0.204 美元，比 2022 年支付的第二季度股息增加約 15%。

The share repurchase program, together with the structure of our dividend plan, work in tandem to provide our shareholders with the expectation of dividend growth each quarter as the aggregate $300 million in annual dividends is spread across a decreasing number of shares of Vistra common stock.

股票回購計劃與我們的股息計劃結構相結合，為我們的股東提供了每個季度股息增長的預期，因為每年股息總額 3 億美元分佈在瑞致達普通股數量不斷減少的情況下。

Third, we continue our focus on a strong balance sheet. As margin deposits return, we are positioned to utilize that cash for opportunistic delevering and/or to reduce the amount of debt we expect to incur to close the Energy Harbor acquisition we announced in March of this year. While the first quarter is typically the lowest free cash flow quarter for Vistra, we were able to repay approximately $500 million of short-term debt. Of course, we're expecting our net debt balance to grow over the balance of the year to fund the Energy Harbor acquisition, which we expect to come with a significant amount of EBITDA, but we remain focused on our goal of a long-term net leverage ratio, excluding any nonrecourse debt at Vistra Zero, of less than 3x, which we expect to achieve in the 2024 to 2025 time frame.

第三，我們繼續關注強勁的資產負債表。隨著保證金存款的回歸，我們準備利用這些現金進行機會性去槓桿化和/或減少我們預計為完成今年 3 月宣布的能源港收購而產生的債務金額。雖然第一季度通常是瑞致達自由現金流最低的季度，但我們仍能夠償還約 5 億美元的短期債務。當然，我們預計我們的淨債務餘額將在今年剩餘時間內增長，為能源港收購提供資金，我們預計這將帶來大量 EBITDA，但我們仍然專注於我們的長期目標淨槓桿率（不包括瑞致達零的任何無追索權債務）低於 3 倍，我們預計在 2024 年至 2025 年的時間範圍內實現這一目標。

Finally, we are very excited about our announcement just 2 months ago regarding the acquisition of Energy Harbor which is expected to close later this year. With this acquisition, our nuclear fleet will grow by an additional 4,000 megawatts in PJM, which will more than double the zero-carbon generation we have online today.

最後，我們對兩個月前宣布的有關收購 Energy Harbor 的消息感到非常興奮，該收購預計將於今年晚些時候完成。通過此次收購，我們的 PJM 核電站發電量將增加 4,000 兆瓦，這將使我們目前在線的零碳發電量增加一倍以上。

Turning to Slide 6, I will discuss this quarter's results. We achieved $554 million of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Strong operational performance and our robust hedging activities helped to offset milder-than-normal weather throughout the U.S. Our retail and generation teams continued their strong operational performance, with retail achieving growth in ERCOT customer counts while maintaining attractive margins, and our generation team delivering commercial availability of 97% while maintaining the focus on safety. The generation team has operated over 3 years without a significant injury across a large and diverse fleet, and safety remains our #1 priority.

轉向幻燈片 6，我將討論本季度的業績。我們實現了 5.54 億美元的持續運營調整後 EBITDA。強勁的運營業績和我們穩健的對沖活動幫助抵消了美國各地比正常天氣溫和的影響。我們的零售和發電團隊繼續保持強勁的運營業績，零售業實現了 ERCOT 客戶數量的增長，同時保持了有吸引力的利潤率，我們的發電團隊提供了商業服務可用性達到 97%，同時保持對安全的關注。發電團隊已經運行了 3 年多，在大型和多樣化的車隊中沒有發生重大傷害，安全仍然是我們的第一要務。

Looking ahead for the remainder of the year, we are confident in our ability to meet or exceed the midpoint of our $3.4 billion to $4.0 billion adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations guidance range for 2023 and as we announced in the third quarter of 2022. We're also reaffirming our $1.75 billion to $2.35 billion adjusted free cash flow before growth from ongoing operations guidance range. Of course, with 9 months to go in the year, including the important summer months, we believe it would be premature to narrow or otherwise adjust our guidance range for 2023. Kris will cover in more detail while we remain bullish on our opportunities in years ahead.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們有信心達到或超過 2023 年持續運營指導範圍內 34 億至 40 億美元調整後 EBITDA 的中點，正如我們在 2022 年第三季度宣布的那樣。我們”我們還重申，在持續運營指導範圍增長之前，調整後的自由現金流為 17.5 億至 23.5 億美元。當然，今年還有 9 個月，包括重要的夏季月份，我們認為縮小或以其他方式調整 2023 年指導範圍還為時過早。克里斯將更詳細地介紹，而我們仍然看好未來幾年的機會先。

Before I wrap up and turn the call over to Kris to discuss the first quarter's performance in more detail, I want to provide a quick update on the status of our Energy Harbor acquisition. As noted on Slide 7, we have filed approval requests with each of the 3 key agencies and anticipate receiving all needed approvals in time to close by the end of this year. As a reminder, we've committed bridge financing in place in an amount sufficient to close the transaction, but we do expect to replace the entirety of our bridge commitments with permanent financing between now and closing.

在我結束通話並將電話轉給克里斯以更詳細地討論第一季度的業績之前，我想快速介紹一下我們能源港收購的最新情況。如幻燈片 7 所示，我們已向 3 個主要機構分別提交了批准請求，並預計在今年年底前及時收到所有所需的批准。提醒一下，我們已承諾提供足夠數量的過橋融資以完成交易，但我們確實希望從現在到交易完成期間用永久融資取代全部過橋承諾。

Finally, I think it's worth noting that as we have seen out-year forward price curves improve, our financial forecast for Energy Harbor has also improved in the out years. Previous estimates we shared in March indicated average adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities for 2024 through 2025 of approximately $900 million with adjusted free cash flow before growth opportunities at a 65% to 70% range. This is inclusive of synergies and on an open pretax basis.

最後，我認為值得注意的是，隨著我們看到遠期價格曲線的改善，我們對能源港的財務預測在過去幾年也有所改善。我們之前在 3 月份分享的估計表明，2024 年至 2025 年平均調整後 EBITDA 中點機會約為 9 億美元，調整後自由現金流在增長機會之前的範圍為 65% 至 70%。這包括協同效應並且是在開放的稅前基礎上進行的。

Given recent price curves, we see the average adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities from Energy Harbor for 2026 and beyond to be higher than this original estimate. We expect that we will provide more detailed adjusted EBITDA and other financial projections for the combined company closer to closing or just after.

鑑於最近的價格曲線，我們認為能源港 2026 年及以後的平均調整後 EBITDA 中點機會將高於最初的估計。我們預計，我們將在接近交割或交割後不久為合併後的公司提供更詳細的調整後 EBITDA 和其他財務預測。

Kris, I'll now turn the call over to you.

克里斯，我現在把電話轉給你。

Thank you, Jim. Starting on Slide 9. Vistra delivered $554 million in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA, including $583 million from generation and a loss of $29 million from retail.

謝謝你，吉姆。從幻燈片 9 開始，瑞致達持續運營調整後 EBITDA 交付額為 5.54 億美元，其中發電損失 5.83 億美元，零售損失 2,900 萬美元。

Generation's results were strong despite the significant impact of milder weather on pricing, primarily driven by in-the-money settled hedges, opportunistically backing down generation at times when prices were below unit cost and the recognition of a net bonus position in PJM for Winter Storm Elliott. Those benefits were partially offset by headwinds for the quarter that were known at the time guidance for 2023 was set, including default service migration costs and lower PJM capacity revenues as well as intra-year impacts relating to timing of hedges and opportunistic acceleration of planned outages into the first quarter.

儘管溫和的天氣對定價產生了重大影響，但發電業績依然強勁，這主要是由於價內結算對沖、在價格低於單位成本時機會主義地減少發電以及認可 PJM 冬季風暴的淨紅利頭寸推動的埃利奧特。這些收益被制定 2023 年指導時已知的本季度不利因素部分抵消，包括默認服務遷移成本和較低的 PJM 容量收入，以及與對沖時機和機會性加速計劃停電相關的年內影響進入第一季度。

While retail was also impacted by mild weather, it's important to note that due to strong counts and margin management, the results for retail for the first quarter are in the range of what we expected coming into the year. Given the intra-year shaping, we continue to see due to higher power costs in the winter and summer months, we anticipate substantially all of the ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for retail to be achieved in the second and fourth quarters.

雖然零售業也受到溫和天氣的影響，但值得注意的是，由於強勁的數量和利潤管理，第一季度零售業的業績處於我們對今年的預期範圍內。考慮到年內的情況，我們繼續認為，由於冬季和夏季電力成本較高，我們預計零售業大部分正在進行的業務調整後的 EBITDA 將在第二季度和第四季度實現。

Accordingly, we are confident in our ability to meet or exceed the midpoint of the $905 million to $1.065 billion range of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for retail that we announced on our third quarter 2022 call.

因此，我們有信心能夠達到或超過我們在 2022 年第三季度電話會議上宣布的零售業持續運營調整後 EBITDA 9.05 億美元至 10.65 億美元範圍的中點。

Turning now to Slide 10, I'll share a quick update on capital allocation. As of May 4, we had executed approximately $2.7 billion of share repurchases since the beginning of the program in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to utilize the remaining approximately $1.55 billion of authorization by year-end 2024, with at least $1 billion of cumulative repurchases expected in calendar year 2023, as originally planned.

現在轉到幻燈片 10，我將分享有關資本配置的快速更新。截至 5 月 4 日，自 2021 年第四季度該計劃開始以來，我們已執行了約 27 億美元的股票回購。我們預計到 2024 年底前將使用剩餘的約 15.5 億美元的授權，其中至少 10 億美元按照原計劃，預計在 2023 年進行累計回購。

Notably, as of May 4, our outstanding share count had fallen to approximately 373 million shares, a significant reduction of approximately 23% from the aggregate number of shares that were outstanding when the program started in November 2021.

值得注意的是，截至 5 月 4 日，我們的流通股數量已降至約 3.73 億股，較 2021 年 11 月該計劃啟動時的流通股總數大幅減少約 23%。

As a result of our robust and consistent share repurchases, our dividend program of approximately $300 million per year, or approximately $75 million per quarter, continues to result in significant growth in the dividend per share received by our shareholders. To that end, the second quarter 2023 common stack dividend of $0.204 per share, which is payable on June 30, 2023, is approximately 15% higher per share as compared to the dividend paid in the second quarter of 2022.

由於我們強勁而持續的股票回購，我們每年約 3 億美元或每季度約 7500 萬美元的股息計劃繼續導致股東收到的每股股息顯著增長。為此，2023 年第二季度普通股股息為每股 0.204 美元，將於 2023 年 6 月 30 日支付，比 2022 年第二季度支付的股息每股高出約 15%。

While we remain committed to consistently returning capital directly to our shareholders, we also remain steadfast in our commitment to a strong balance sheet. Accordingly, we continue to target a long-term net leverage ratio, excluding any nonrecourse debt at Vistra Zero of less than 3x.

在我們仍然致力於始終如一地直接向股東返還資本的同時，我們也仍然堅定地致力於保持強勁的資產負債表。因此，我們繼續以低於 3 倍的長期淨槓桿率為目標，不包括瑞致達零的任何無追索權債務。

Finally, our Vistra Zero growth remains on track. We have allocated over 90% of the net proceeds from the December 2021 Green preferred stock issuance and are focused on securing nonrecourse project or portfolio level financing to, among other things, support the growth CapEx needs of the company. We anticipate the first such financing to be in place no later than the end of this year.

最後，我們的瑞致達零增長仍然步入正軌。我們已分配了 2021 年 12 月發行綠色優先股淨收益的 90% 以上，並專注於確保無追索權項目或投資組合級別融資，以支持公司增長的資本支出需求。我們預計首筆此類融資將在今年年底前到位。

Turning to Slide 11, we provide an update on the out-year forward price curves as of May 4. As you recall, we announced last year on the first quarter call that we estimated a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion of potential ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities for years 2023 through 2025 based on April 29, 2022 curves. While we do not expect to update this range before initiating guidance for each applicable year, we did want to note that we currently believe there is upside to the range of each of 2024, 2025 and now 2026 in light of the higher prices in our primary markets and the continued execution of our comprehensive hedging program that has now hedged 2023 through 2025 at approximately 86% on average across all markets, with the balance of 2023 hedged approximately 99% and 2024 hedged approximately 96%.

轉向幻燈片 11，我們提供了截至 5 月 4 日的年外遠期價格曲線的更新。正如您所記得的，我們去年在第一季度電話會議上宣布，我們估計潛在持續運營的範圍為 35 億美元至 37 億美元根據 2022 年 4 月 29 日的曲線，調整了 2023 年至 2025 年的 EBITDA 中點機會。雖然我們預計在啟動每個適用年份的指導之前不會更新此範圍，但我們確實想指出，鑑於我們的主要價格較高，我們目前認為 2024 年、2025 年和現在的 2026 年的範圍都有上行空間市場以及我們全面對沖計劃的持續執行，該計劃目前已在 2023 年至 2025 年期間對所有市場的平均對沖率約為 86%，其中 2023 年的剩餘對沖率約為 99%，2024 年的對沖率約為 96%。

As you would expect, 2026 is significantly less hedged, which creates a significant opportunity but also a wider range given our open position.

正如您所期望的那樣，2026 年的對沖程度明顯減少，這創造了一個重大機會，但鑑於我們的未平倉頭寸，也創造了更廣泛的範圍。

We remain committed to executing against our 2023 strategic priorities and translating that success into shareholder returns. We look forward to updating you on our progress on our second quarter call.

我們仍然致力於執行 2023 年的戰略重點，並將這一成功轉化為股東回報。我們期待在第二季度電話會議上向您通報我們的最新進展。

With that, operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

接線員，現在我們就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shahriar Pourreza。

I think you sort of touched on this quickly, but I guess what point could you revisit and update the 2-year commentary you guys have been providing? And then obviously, those numbers have been floated around first in '22. I guess what kind of O&M inflation is embedded in those? Maybe put differently, we've seen a few of your peers kind of flagged strong increases in O&M cost as of late. So I guess, what are you guys seeing in those numbers as well?

我認為您很快就談到了這一點，但我想您可以重新審視並更新你們兩年來提供的評論嗎？顯然，這些數字在 22 年就已經開始浮動。我猜其中包含了什麼樣的運營和維護通脹？也許換句話來說，我們看到一些同行最近表示運維成本大幅增加。所以我想，你們從這些數字中也看到了什麼？

This is Jim. Thanks for your question. The 2-year, if I understood your question, the 2-year view you're speaking to is about '24 and '25. And as you noted, we had put out the $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion range last spring when we started to see the forward curves move and we've been opportunistically hedging into that. When we got to the end of '22 and we started to talk about '23, obviously, we put out a $3.7 billion midpoint, which was at the upper end of this midpoint range, which was a construct we were trying to use to signal to the market that we see the earnings power of the business improving, but there's still a lot unhedged at the time we first put it out.

這是吉姆。謝謝你的提問。兩年，如果我理解你的問題，你所說的兩年觀點是關於'24和'25。正如您所指出的，去年春天，當我們開始看到遠期曲線移動時，我們已經推出了 35 億至 37 億美元的區間，並且我們一直在機會主義地對沖這一點。當我們到了 22 年末，我們開始談論 23 年時，顯然，我們提出了 37 億美元的中點，它位於這個中點範圍的上限，這是我們試圖用來發出信號的一個結構向市場表明，我們看到該業務的盈利能力有所改善，但在我們首次推出時仍有很多未對沖的情況。

Since we've continued to hedge, we see us continuing to move up. So using the May 4 curves, and this is without including Energy Harbor, we see that midpoint opportunities for '24 to '25 start to move up higher than the $3.7 billion. And we see it in sort of the $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion range. Again, this is the midpoint of those opportunities. So when we would formalize guidance at the end of this year for 2024, we'll have a bigger range around that just given the inherent variability of managing through the business.

由於我們繼續對沖，我們看到價格繼續上漲。因此，使用 5 月 4 日的曲線（不包括能源港），我們看到 24 至 25 年間的中點機會開始上升至高於 37 億美元。我們認為其規模約為 37 億至 38 億美元。同樣，這是這些機會的中點。因此，當我們在今年年底正式製定 2024 年指導時，考慮到業務管理的固有可變性，我們將有更大的範圍。

But as we continue to perfect these hedges, we still have some open, obviously, in '25 or more hedged than '24. We see this earnings power definitely improving for '24, '25. And in '26, we're even more open. And if you roll forward to '26, we see an increase even further from these numbers.

但隨著我們繼續完善這些對沖，我們顯然仍然有一些未平倉合約，在 25 年或比 24 年有更多的對沖。我們認為這種盈利能力在 24 年、25 年肯定會有所改善。 26 年，我們更加開放。如果你向前滾動到 26 年，我們會發現這些數字還會進一步增加。

Okay. Perfect. And just -- I'm sorry to ask, but what's the O&M inflation you guys are embedding in those numbers?

好的。完美的。只是——我很抱歉地問，你們在這些數字中嵌入的運營和維護通貨膨脹是多少？

Yes. So the O&M inflation, it depends on which category we're referring to, Shahriar. We're using it, we have consistently seen something between 3% and 10%, depending on the nature of the input. Labor is different from OEMs doing outages which is different from variable chemicals we use in the power production process. But it's in that range. And we are obviously, as a competitive company, we're contracting and procuring as competitively as we possibly can. But we don't have any go-gets, if you will, built into the numbers to -- that we are trying to solve for. This is our best line of sight of what it takes to run this business.

是的。因此，O&M 通貨膨脹，取決於我們指的是哪個類別，Shahriar。我們正在使用它，我們一直看到 3% 到 10% 之間的情況，具體取決於輸入的性質。勞動力不同於原始設備製造商進行停電，也不同於我們在電力生產過程中使用的可變化學品。但也在這個範圍之內。顯然，作為一家有競爭力的公司，我們正在盡可能具有競爭力地簽訂合同和採購。但如果你願意的話，我們並沒有將任何目標納入我們正在努力解決的數字中。這是我們經營這項業務所需的最佳視角。

Perfect. Perfect. And then just I'd love to get maybe a pulse check on sort of the legislative cycle right now and your expectations for resource adequacy in ERCOT. Things seem to be a little quieter now that the Senate has passed several items. I guess what are your expectations for pathways forward as the session comes to a close?

完美的。完美的。然後我很想了解一下目前的立法週期以及您對 ERCOT 資源充足性的期望。參議院通過了幾項法案後，事情似乎平靜了一些。我想您對會議結束時的前進道路有何期望？

Sure. shahriar, it is coming down in the final 3 weeks in Austin, I do think there's been a lot of attention and, appropriately, so on reliability, and we've talked about that, especially when you consider that Texas is the nation's leader in wind and soon to be the nation's leader in solar which helps from a sustainability point of view. But we've actually seen that there's needs to bolster the grid from a dispatchable generation point of view.

當然。 shahriar，它會在奧斯汀的最後三週內下降，我確實認為人們對可靠性給予了很多關注，而且我們已經討論過這一點，特別是當你考慮到德克薩斯州是全國領先的風能並很快將成為美國太陽能領域的領導者，這從可持續發展的角度來看是有幫助的。但我們實際上已經看到，從可調度發電的角度來看，需要加強電網。

That was the impetus for the performance credit mechanism that was adopted by the Public Utility Commission in January. And the timing is such that, depending on how the legislative process wraps up, the stakeholder process would begin for this PCM mechanism to be able to create a market mechanism to reward reliability.

這就是公用事業委員會在一月份通過的績效積分機制的推動力。時間安排是這樣的，根據立法程序的完成情況，利益相關者的程序將開始，讓這個 PCM 機制能夠創建一個市場機制來獎勵可靠性。

There's still many bills being considered in the House and the Senate, so it's hard to predict what might pass. But I think from our standpoint, the PCM is meant to address not only the incentives for new generation, but ensuring that existing generation doesn't retire prematurely because some of the other forms of generation are getting production tax credits which, as you know, can create downward pressure on market power prices.

眾議院和參議院仍有許多法案正在審議，因此很難預測哪些法案可能會通過。但我認為，從我們的角度來看，PCM 不僅旨在激勵新一代，而且還確保現有一代不會過早退休，因為其他一些形式的發電正在獲得生產稅收抵免，正如您所知，可能對市場電價造成下行壓力。

So from our standpoint, we think the reliability focus is important. If the PCM is well designed and it moves forward, we think that will bolster the competitive market. We obviously want to continue to see support for our integrated model in Texas. We think it's a business that serves customers well. And we would intend to invest in building gas-fired generation if there is a well-designed PCM.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們認為可靠性重點很重要。如果 PCM 設計良好並向前發展，我們認為這將增強競爭市場。我們顯然希望繼續看到德克薩斯州對我們的集成模型的支持。我們認為這是一家為客戶提供良好服務的企業。如果有設計良好的 PCM，我們將打算投資建設燃氣發電。

So we think policymakers are focused on the right aspects of what it takes to keep the grid affordable, reliable and sustainable. And Shahriar, our view is, is we want to be part of that solution here in our home state.

因此，我們認為政策制定者應該關注如何保持電網負擔得起、可靠和可持續的正確方面。我們的觀點是，沙赫里亞爾希望成為我們家鄉解決方案的一部分。

But we still have 3 weeks to go. And we'll obviously have to provide more updates as the session wraps up, but I do think the attention on this is well deserved, and we'll be involved as much as we can through this session and the stakeholder process.

但我們還有 3 週的時間。顯然，隨著會議結束，我們必須提供更多更新，但我確實認為對此的關注是當之無愧的，我們將通過本次會議和利益相關者流程盡可能多地參與其中。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Look, I wanted to just follow up on the success of the Energy Harbor transaction. Obviously, you got a lot of folks' attention. Can you talk a little bit about your thoughts about looking into potential further acquisitive activities. Obviously, there's a North Star around buybacks and commitments there in and maintaining that throughout. But can you talk today, especially in reaction to Energy Harbor, how you would think about perhaps leaning in further to whether that's nuclear or other angles that could include retail or renewables or what have you. But would love to hear your thoughts.

看，我只是想跟進能源港交易的成功情況。顯然，你受到了很多人的關注。您能否談談您對研究潛在的進一步收購活動的想法。顯然，回購和承諾是一個北極星，並始終保持這一點。但你今天能談談，特別是對能源港的反應，你會如何考慮進一步傾向於核能或其他角度，包括零售或可再生能源或你擁有的東西。但很想听聽你的想法。

Julien, look, we have generally stayed away from commenting on M&A. I think it's one of those activities that opportunistically comes your way and you have to be prepared for it. You have to always be what we'd say, hang around the hoop a little bit on opportunities.

Julien，你看，我們通常不會對併購發表評論。我認為這是一種機會主義的活動，你必須為此做好準備。你必須永遠像我們所說的那樣，抓住機會。

However, I think the Energy Harbor transaction is a very significant one for us. Certainly, it's our focus right now, not only getting through the approval process with the key agencies but the integration activities with the team at Energy Harbor and with our team. As you know, it's transformative in a lot of ways because we use it as a platform to highlight just how much of a business we have with the carbon-free aspects of our business. And obviously, we're going to more than double that amount of generation with this transaction.

然而，我認為能源港交易對我們來說是一項非常重要的交易。當然，這是我們現在的重點，不僅要完成與主要機構的審批流程，還要與能源港團隊和我們的團隊進行整合活動。如您所知，它在很多方面都具有變革性，因為我們使用它作為平台來強調我們在業務的無碳方面所擁有的業務量。顯然，通過這次交易，我們的發電量將增加一倍以上。

The strong balance sheet and the returning capital, the reason we keep repeating the 4 priorities is because we have to find things that fit within those 4 priorities. And not everything is going to. And I think that's a commitment we've made I think the Energy Harbor transaction reinforced. We mean those, that we're going to stick with those 4 core principles.

強勁的資產負債表和資本回流，我們不斷重複這四個優先事項的原因是因為我們必須找到適合這四個優先事項的東西。但並非一切都會如願。我認為這是我們做出的承諾，我認為能源港交易得到了加強。我們的意思是，我們將堅持這 4 項核心原則。

So Julien, nothing is ever off the table from the standpoint of looking at it, but it needs to fit the criteria that we've laid out and we're going to remain disciplined in that regard.

所以朱利安，從觀察的角度來看，沒有什麼是不可能的，但它需要符合我們制定的標準，我們將在這方面保持紀律。

Look, and then with respect to the transaction itself, I mean, can you comment a little bit? I mean, it seems like there might be a slight delay in the close of the transaction. Just what caused that? Is that approval process or just the execution process? And then related, you talked about a significant jump in generation here. You all obviously have a pretty sizable retail platform. You saw some quarter-over-quarter declines in retail customers. How do you think about building out that retail platform a little bit further here in light of Energy Harbor? Or is that less of a priority considering things like the nuclear PTCs that might deemphasize the need to want to (inaudible) balance that retail business with generation, if you will.

聽著，然後關於交易本身，我的意思是，你能評論一下嗎？我的意思是，交易的完成似乎可能會略有延遲。到底是什麼原因造成的呢？這是審批過程還是只是執行過程？然後相關的是，你在這裡談到了一代人的顯著跳躍。顯然你們都有一個相當大的零售平台。您看到零售客戶數量環比有所下降。鑑於能源港，您如何看待進一步建立零售平台？或者說，考慮到諸如核PTC之類的事情，這是否不是一個優先事項，如果你願意的話，這些事情可能會削弱想要（聽不清）平衡零售業務與發電業務的必要性。

Sure. Well, on the first matter, I think we're progressing well on the approvals process. We announced the transaction early March. We made the filings -- the key filings in April. We believe the NRC is working towards an early October approval which, to be on a 6-month track for a license transfer, we think is actually on the more efficient side of the scale in terms of where we would go. We've talked about closing this in the fourth quarter, and I think that is achievable.

當然。嗯，關於第一件事，我認為我們在審批過程中進展順利。我們三月初宣布了這筆交易。我們在四月份提交了文件——關鍵文件。我們相信 NRC 正在努力爭取 10 月初獲得批准，在為期 6 個月的許可證轉讓過程中，我們認為就我們的發展方向而言，實際上處於更有效的階段。我們已經討論過在第四季度完成這項工作，我認為這是可以實現的。

Julien, as you know, we don't have anything built into our numbers for 2023 related to Energy Harbor. So hopefully, there's some opportunity there. But just I think we're tracking well. There's nothing that we're concerned about at this stage, but it's still early in the approval process. But so far, so good.

Julien，如您所知，我們 2023 年的數據中沒有任何與能源港相關的內容。所以希望那裡有一些機會。但我認為我們進展順利。現階段我們沒有什麼需要擔心的，但現在還處於批准過程的早期階段。但到目前為止，一切都很好。

On the retail side, our reduction in counts has been more outside of the ERCOT market. We've made some strategic exits in a couple of states. The Energy Harbor platform does give us an opportunity to bolster some of the areas where we do currently operate in retail. And obviously, it gives us an asset base, including some attributes like the emissions-free energy credits which customers are becoming more interested in that the nuclear units can offer.

在零售方面，我們減少的數量更多是在 ERCOT 市場之外。我們已經在幾個州進行了一些戰略退出。能源港平台確實為我們提供了一個機會來支持我們目前從事零售業務的一些領域。顯然，它為我們提供了資產基礎，包括一些屬性，例如客戶對核電機組可以提供的無排放能源信用越來越感興趣。

So I like our retail. We like our integrated model. We do think the Midwest, Northeast market reforms in some of the retail markets is still warranted. As we've talked about, Julien, the level of competition there in terms of the degree that you can differentiate your products there is still rather limited. It's more of a hedge channel and being able to serve customers with your assets than it is a true business-to-consumer or business-to-business differentiated marketing strategy. We hope to get there in some of these markets, and we'll continue our efforts from a stakeholder outreach perspective.

所以我喜歡我們的零售。我們喜歡我們的集成模型。我們確實認為中西部、東北部部分零售市場的改革仍然是有必要的。 Julien，正如我們所討論的，就產品差異化程度而言，那裡的競爭水平仍然相當有限。它更像是一種對沖渠道，能夠用您的資產為客戶提供服務，而不是真正的企業對消費者或企業對企業的差異化營銷策略。我們希望在其中一些市場實現這一目標，並且我們將從利益相關者外展的角度繼續努力。

But the integrated model is certainly well intact with this acquisition because it comes with a retail business in addition to generation, but we do need to see these markets open up a little bit from a reform and being open to innovation in these markets the way Texas has been open innovation. And so we do have some work to do there, Julien.

但這次收購的整合模式肯定完好無損，因為除了發電之外，它還附帶零售業務，但我們確實需要看到這些市場通過改革開放一點，並像德克薩斯州那樣對這些市場的創新開放一直是開放式創新。所以我們確實有一些工作要做，朱利安。

Our next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁克爾·沙利文。

I wanted to just confirm on the upside you're seeing in '24 all the way out to '26 that, that's based on basically current curves? And then if so, maybe if you could just give us your own point of view on where you think things could go just based on supply/demand dynamics in your major markets?

我想確認一下你在 24 年到 26 年所看到的好處，這是基於基本上當前的曲線嗎？如果是這樣，也許您可以根據主要市場的供需動態向我們提供您自己的觀點，即您認為事情會走向何方？

Michael. Thank you. Yes, we based this off of using the May 4 curve. So it's a function, obviously, of where we have hedged, what we still have open and the curves as of May 4, not that the liquidity is infinitely deep in some of these outer years, but it's not based on a point of view. It is based on curves. We know that this is something that you and our investors are trying to follow, which is are we seeing some upside.

邁克爾.謝謝。是的，我們基於 5 月 4 日的曲線得出這一結論。因此，顯然，這是我們對沖的地方、我們仍然未平倉的地方以及截至 5 月 4 日的曲線的函數，而不是這些外部年份中的一些流動性無限深，但它不是基於某種觀點。它基於曲線。我們知道這是您和我們的投資者正在努力遵循的事情，這就是我們看到的一些好處。

As Kris laid out in his chart, from the time we first initiated the strategy of talking about a 3-year horizon, the curves have actually improved in those outer years. So while we've seen the front of the curves come down because of a number of factors, I'm going to ask Stephen Muscato, our President of Wholesale, to comment, we've seen the out-years actually strengthen. And we think that, that's actually a sign of opportunity for Vistra long term. But in terms of the dynamics by market, I think it might be helpful for Steve to share a few thoughts as to how we see these markets that being impacted by some of the factors, obviously, late last fall and through this year and where we see that headed. Steve?

正如克里斯在他的圖表中所指出的那樣，從我們第一次啟動談論 3 年範圍的策略開始，這些曲線實際上在那些外部年份有所改善。因此，雖然我們看到曲線前端由於多種因素而下降，但我要請我們的批發總裁斯蒂芬穆斯卡托發表評論，我們已經看到過去幾年實際上有所加強。我們認為，這實際上是瑞致達長期機遇的標誌。但就市場動態而言，我認為史蒂夫分享一些關於我們如何看待這些受到某些因素影響的市場的想法可能會有所幫助，顯然，從去年秋天末到今年，以及我們在哪裡看到那個標題。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Jim. Sure, I would add, if we start with natural gas, which is kind of a big driver behind power prices, the marginal shale has now become the Haynesville , which is a dry shale . We're seeing limited growth in the Utica and the Marcellus due to limited pipeline takeaway. And all the growth in the Permian that's happening, even though that's a wet shale, is not the marginal shale. It's being used to really feed growing LNG export market.

謝謝，吉姆。當然，我想補充一點，如果我們從天然氣開始，天然氣是電價背後的一個重要推動因素，邊緣頁岩現在已經變成了海恩斯維爾，這是一種干燥的頁岩。由於管道輸送有限，我們看到尤蒂卡和馬塞勒斯的增長有限。儘管二疊紀是濕頁岩，但正在發生的所有生長都不是邊緣頁岩。它被用來真正滿足不斷增長的液化天然氣出口市場。

So that's really provided support on natural gas which is why you're seeing it stay $4 and above at least '25 and beyond. The front end of the curve is really influenced by some excess storage inventories that are due to the mild weather that if you look going forward, if you assume normal weather, should lend itself out once you get to the late '24, early '25 period.

因此，這確實為天然氣提供了支持，這就是為什麼你會看到它至少在 25 年及以後保持在 4 美元及以上。曲線的前端確實受到一些過剩存儲庫存的影響，這些庫存是由於溫和的天氣而造成的，如果你展望未來，如果你假設天氣正常，那麼一旦你到了 24 世紀末、25 年初，應該就會出現這種情況。時期。

In terms of, like, say, fundamentals in each market, you're seeing this integration of renewables particularly challenging in PJM. You see a lot of coal leaving the stack over time but a slow incremental movement in renewables. Not only renewables is less effective in markets like PJM because lower capacity factors, it doesn't have the same irradiance or wind speeds that you see in markets like Texas and MISO. But it also takes a lot to replace it. You could see 5 to 9 to 1 replacement levels needed in order to maintain same levels of reliability.

就每個市場的基本面而言，您會發現可再生能源的整合在 PJM 中尤其具有挑戰性。隨著時間的推移，你會看到大量煤炭離開煙囪，但可再生能源的增量運動卻緩慢。可再生能源不僅在 PJM 等市場中效率較低，因為容量因素較低，而且它的輻照度或風速也不像德克薩斯州和 MISO 等市場那樣。但更換它也需要很大的努力。您可能會發現需要 5 到 9 比 1 的更換級別才能保持相同級別的可靠性。

You also have problems with East Coast gas markets to the extent they can recouple with European markets, that could also cause some volatility.

東海岸天然氣市場也存在問題，以至於它們可以與歐洲市場重新結合，這也可能導致一些波動。

And I think Jim mentioned some of the things that are already happening in ERCOT in terms of reform, solar pushing the peak out, you only have 1-hour batteries coming into ERCOT, which really doesn't help on an extended heatwave that may occur or extended cold point.

我認為 Jim 提到了 ERCOT 中已經發生的一些改革方面的事情，太陽能將高峰推向了高峰，ERCOT 中只有 1 小時的電池，這對於可能發生的長時間熱浪確實沒有幫助或延長冷點。

And so I think uncertainty around gas and coal assets and determine what happens with the legislature in addition to an aging fleet provides this collision we're seeing over time, which is going to win out renewables or fossil fuels? At least in the intermediate term, it appears gas is going to be needed, it's going to be stressed and so we think that's supporting fundamentals out the longterm.

因此，我認為天然氣和煤炭資產的不確定性以及立法機關除了老化的船隊之外會發生什麼，提供了我們隨著時間的推移所看到的這種碰撞，這將贏得可再生能源或化石燃料？至少從中期來看，天然氣似乎是需要的，它會受到壓力，所以我們認為這會支撐長期的基本面。

Steve, thanks for that. I'll just add, Michael, that in addition to the dynamics we're seeing of the resource mix and how it's changing, we've seen obviously a handful of significant environmental regulations that have been issued and potentially forthcoming that could also put some pressure on assets that currently are providing a reliability service on these grids.

史蒂夫，謝謝你。邁克爾，我只想補充一點，除了我們看到的資源組合的動態及其變化方式之外，我們顯然還看到了一些已經頒布和可能即將出台的重要環境法規，這些法規也可能會帶來一些影響。目前為這些電網提供可靠性服務的資產面臨著壓力。

And our assets, even with a Vistra Tradition and a Vistra Vision, coal is 25% to 30% on a go-forward basis of Vistra Tradition. It's predominantly our combined cycle gas fleet. We think that has a lot of value in helping these grids be able to sustain a reliable operation while integrating more renewables.

我們的資產，即使有瑞致達傳統和瑞致達願景，在瑞致達傳統的未來基礎上，煤炭也佔 25% 至 30%。主要是我們的聯合循環天然氣車隊。我們認為這對於幫助這些電網維持可靠運行同時整合更多可再生能源具有很大價值。

And then, of course, our Vistra Vision is anchored by Vistra Zero and also Comanche Peak and Energy Harbor assets on a go-forward basis.

當然，我們的瑞致達願景是以瑞致達零、科曼奇峰和能源港資產為基礎的。

So we like our asset position to backstop and what we call firm up our customer commitments. And we think the horizon, whether it's the economics of what happens in competitive markets or whether it's actually some of the incentives and the rules that could come forward from an environmental standpoint, these assets are going to be needed for reliability purposes. And that's our thesis with why we think this business has a long-term earnings potential that we see actually growing through time.

因此，我們希望我們的資產狀況能夠提供支持，並堅定我們對客戶的承諾。我們認為，無論是競爭市場中發生的經濟問題，還是實際上從環境角度來看可能提出的一些激勵措施和規則，出於可靠性目的，都將需要這些資產。這就是我們的論點，即為什麼我們認為這項業務具有長期盈利潛力，而且我們認為這種潛力實際上會隨著時間的推移而增長。

Okay. That was super comprehensive. Maybe just one quick follow-up there on the environmental rules. So from where you're standing right now, Jim, like any near-term impact in terms of whether it be investments that you have to put into some of your coal plants that you were planning to keep online?

好的。那是超級全面的。也許只是對環境規則的一個快速跟進。那麼，從你現在的立場來看，吉姆，你是否希望對你計劃保持在線的一些燃煤電廠進行投資方面的任何近期影響？

Not in the near term, Michael. A couple of things. Obviously, the CCR ELG rules we have talked about for years, and that does have impacts on our coal fleet, which we've communicated multiple times that will have retirement dates in that sort of '27, '28 horizon except for 2 of our sites.

短期內不會，邁克爾。有幾件事。顯然，我們已經討論了多年的 CCR ELG 規則，這確實對我們的煤炭船隊產生了影響，我們已經多次傳達了這些煤炭船隊的退役日期，除了我們的 2 艘之外，這些船隊將在“27”、“28”這樣的範圍內退役。網站。

CASPR, or the good neighbor rule, it did -- it was recently stayed. So you have an opportunity here for the state of Texas to revisit this rule, obviously, in the fifth circuit. It's going to take some time to sort that out. That could impact some of our old gas units, could impact the Hubbard lake if it were to be fully implemented.

CASPR，或者說好鄰居規則，確實如此——最近被擱置了。因此，德克薩斯州顯然有機會在第五巡迴賽中重新審視這一規則。解決這個問題需要一些時間。這可能會影響我們的一些舊天然氣裝置，如果全面實施，可能會影響哈伯德湖。

But I think there were good reasons for the challenge, and we're certainly not the only party in that challenge. There's many industry participants outside of even power as well as the state. But no, Michael, we don't have any anticipated large CapEx spend as a result, but we stay active.

但我認為提出這一挑戰是有充分理由的，而且我們當然不是唯一參與這一挑戰的一方。除了權力和國家之外，還有許多行業參與者。但不，邁克爾，我們沒有任何預期的大量資本支出，但我們保持活躍。

Again, reliability is important, and we think that this transition that's occurring on the grid needs to be done so thoughtfully. But nothing -- no near-term impacts with the state, maybe a little bit pushed out from that standpoint in terms of impact on our fleet.

同樣，可靠性很重要，我們認為電網上發生的這種轉變需要深思熟慮。但沒有什麼——對國家沒有短期影響，從對我們機隊的影響的角度來看，可能有點被排除了。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛·阿卡羅。

I wanted to check on the retail business. Just wanted to confirm, is that on track for the year given the first quarter results? Are you going to need to pursue some more proactive initiatives to keep kind of in line with the guidance range for this year? Or is this really just a more natural ebb and flow of the EBITDA results for retail?

我想了解零售業務。只是想確認一下，鑑於第一季度的業績，今年的業績是否步入正軌？您是否需要採取一些更積極主動的舉措來與今年的指導範圍保持一致？或者這真的只是零售業 EBITDA 結果更自然的潮起潮落？

Yes. Thanks for the question, David. As we noted in the comments, the loss of $29 million, that was expected. That was within the range of what we expected when we set the guidance. So that's not far off of exactly what we were expecting going forward.

是的。謝謝你的提問，大衛。正如我們在評論中指出的，損失 2900 萬美元是預料之中的。這在我們設定指導時的預期範圍之內。所以這與我們對未來的預期並不遙遠。

We continue, and I noted this, but we continue to expect retail to be able to meet or exceed the midpoint of its guidance range that we provided in the third quarter of last year. We don't -- we see some timing effects over the balance of the year and some margin and count benefits that have carried through that we see will offset some of the pressures they saw from weather in the first quarter.

我們繼續，我注意到了這一點，但我們仍然預計零售業能夠達到或超過我們去年第三季度提供的指導範圍的中點。我們沒有——我們看到了今年剩餘時間的一些時間影響，以及我們看到的一些利潤和計數效益，我們認為這些效益將抵消第一季度天氣帶來的一些壓力。

So we don't see anything in particular over the balance of the year that we need to stretch to meet that goal.

因此，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們沒有看到任何特別需要努力來實現這一目標的事情。

Again, as we would note, the shape continues to be that we're going to see pressure on the retail side from an EBITDA perspective in the first and third quarters. And the second and fourth quarters is where they're going to make substantially all of the EBITDA. And that's because they typically have flat prices through the year, but the power costs in the winter and summer months are the highest. So there's some pressure on EBITDA in the first and third quarters, and the second and fourth quarters is where they make it up.

同樣，正如我們所指出的，從第一季度和第三季度的 EBITDA 角度來看，零售業仍將面臨壓力。他們將在第二季度和第四季度賺取幾乎所有的 EBITDA。這是因為它們通常全年價格固定，但冬季和夏季的電費最高。因此，第一季度和第三季度的 EBITDA 存在一些壓力，第二季度和第四季度是它們彌補的時候。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then a similar topic. I was just curious what the latest trends you're seeing are in customers moving to default service. Is that still a trend that's happening? Or which direction are you seeing right now?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後是類似的話題。我只是很好奇您所看到的客戶轉向默認服務的最新趨勢是什麼。這仍然是一種趨勢嗎？或者你現在看到的是哪個方向？

David, we're still seeing some default prices increase in the markets due to their kind of delayed procurement. But you are seeing competitive offers in the market that are now south of that default level. So you are not seeing the same level of migration to default. You're going to start seeing and we are seeing folks moving from the fault back into the competitive arena. That is part of this market dynamic, I was mentioning that from a reform standpoint. Ideally, you would have a one-to-one relationship with the customer and not have a customer bouncing between a utility and a retailer. But at this stage of the game, obviously, prices have crested. They've started to come off in the wholesale market and that's creating opportunities for our retail business, but it's also creating some of the migration in some markets away from default. And default prices, because they're still increasing in some markets through May, that's going to create more and more savings opportunities for customers.

大衛，我們仍然看到由於採購延遲而導致市場上的一些默認價格上漲。但您會看到市場上有競爭力的報價現在已低於默認水平。因此，您不會看到相同級別的默認遷移。你將開始看到，我們正在看到人們從故障中回到競爭舞台。這是市場動態的一部分，我是從改革的角度提到的。理想情況下，您將與客戶建立一對一的關係，而不會讓客戶在公用事業公司和零售商之間來回切換。但顯然，在遊戲的這個階段，價格已經達到頂峰。它們已經開始在批發市場上脫穎而出，這為我們的零售業務創造了機會，但它也導致一些市場遠離違約。至於默認價格，因為到五月份一些市場的默認價格仍在上漲，這將為客戶創造越來越多的節省機會。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

I just want to make sure, Jim, I sort of heard this clearly in the response to Shahriar's question earlier. For '24 and '25, the midpoint is in the $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion range and '26 is expected to be higher than that for the base business?

吉姆，我只是想確保我在早些時候回答沙裡亞爾問題時清楚地聽到了這一點。對於“24”和“25”，中點在 37 億美元至 38 億美元範圍內，而“26”預計會高於基礎業務的中點？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay. And kind of above $900 million for Energy Harbor in 2026 as well.

好的。到 2026 年，能源港的投資也將超過 9 億美元。

That is the view that we have. And obviously, we've talked about this on a hedged basis, which is largely open in '26, Energy Harbor. We're talking -- because we are -- '24, '25 numbers that we've given you have hedges in them for Energy Harbor. Once you get to '26, Energy Harbor is pretty open, we're pretty open. And actually, you could see Energy Harbor doing better than $900 million when you get out to 2026, again, at current curves.

這就是我們的觀點。顯然，我們已經在對沖的基礎上討論了這個問題，這在 26 年的能源港基本上是開放的。我們正在談論——因為我們是——我們給你們的'24、'25數字對能源港進行了對沖。一旦你到了 26 年，能源港就非常開放了，我們也非常開放。事實上，按照目前的曲線，到 2026 年，您可以看到能源港的業績將超過 9 億美元。

Understood. Thank you for clarifying that for me. And then just as we look to the end of the year or maybe as you close on Energy Harbor , what should we expect in terms of disclosure? Is it going to be sort of a 3-year kind of like you did last year, EBITDA guidance and free cash flow range? Just any color you can share, that would be helpful.

明白了。謝謝你為我澄清這一點。然後，當我們展望今年年底或者能源港關閉時，我們在披露方面應該期待什麼？ EBITDA 指導和自由現金流範圍是否會像去年那樣為 3 年期？您可以分享的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, we're going to -- I think we will obviously update guidance for the balance of 2023 and then 2024 at or the time of closing. We haven't made a decision as far as how far out we will continue to update. We'll probably continue to give directionally where we see things going. But I think we're -- I don't know that we plan to continue to consistently give 3-year ranges going forward. But as we get closer to closing, we'll work on getting updates to what we've put out so far.

是的，我們將——我認為我們顯然會在 2023 年剩餘時間和 2024 年或結束時更新指導。至於我們將繼續更新多久，我們尚未做出決定。我們可能會繼續對我們看到的事情的進展進行指導。但我認為我們——我不知道我們是否計劃繼續一致地給出未來 3 年的範圍。但隨著接近結束，我們將努力更新迄今為止發布的內容。

Today's final question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

今天的最後一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So actually two questions. One about flexibility in the financing of the Energy Harbor transaction. So I think we're all watching credit spreads. You have this deal financed. You have the bridge financing in place, but you plan to refinance it before the end of the year. So I'm just wondering if you could use, for example, any of the project level debt you mentioned at the renewable assets to maybe help yourself here. So that's one.

所以實際上有兩個問題。一是關於能源港交易融資的靈活性。所以我認為我們都在關注信用利差。您已經為這筆交易提供了資金。您已準備好過橋融資，但您計劃在年底前進行再融資。因此，我只是想知道您是否可以使用您在可再生資產中提到的任何項目級債務來幫助自己。這就是其中之一。

And number two, a bigger picture question. So when you look at the mark-to-market of earnings of Vistra Vision and Vistra Tradition, at these prices, you are solving for deleveraging pretty quickly, probably '25, if not sooner. So would that change your thoughts about keeping these 2 businesses together, i.e., could we see a separation of Vistra Vision, again, which would unlock the true value of these assets?

第二，一個更大的問題。因此，當您查看 Vistra Vision 和 Vistra Tradition 的按市價計價的收益時，按照這些價格，您將很快解決去槓桿化問題，可能在 25 年，甚至更早。那麼，這會改變您關於將這兩項業務合併在一起的想法嗎？也就是說，我們是否會再次看到瑞致達願景的分離，這將釋放這些資產的真正價值？

Angie, I'll handle the first question where you talked about financing of Energy Harbor. Obviously, we've -- when we announced the transaction, we put out some assumptions on the amount of cash that we would use and the amount of debt and the split of the debt. We continue to look for opportunities. First, as you saw, the margin deposits are coming back as expected. We saw about over $1 billion, approximately $1.2 billion, come back from the end of the year into -- through March 31. And we continue to see some marginal positive returns as we settle our hedges going through the summer this year.

安吉，我將回答您談到能源港融資的第一個問題。顯然，當我們宣布交易時，我們對我們將使用的現金數量、債務金額和債務分割做出了一些假設。我們繼續尋找機會。首先，正如您所看到的，保證金存款正在按預期返回。從今年年底到 3 月 31 日，我們看到了大約超過 10 億美元，大約 12 億美元的回報。今年夏天，當我們解決對沖時，我們繼續看到一些邊際正回報。

So you can expect us to continue to optimize the amount of cash that we're going to use from the balance sheet as we -- and so it could be larger than the amount that we indicated on the call when we announced the transaction.

因此，您可以預期我們將繼續優化我們將從資產負債表中使用的現金數量，因此它可能會大於我們在宣布交易時在電話會議上表示的金額。

As far as debt, we're going to look at a number of opportunities. We're going to be opportunistic as to timing and which market that we're in. So we're already preparing for those opportunities. And I think you'll see us look at a number of different avenues to raise that debt and not just wait until the end and try to do it all in one market.

就債務而言，我們將尋找許多機會。我們將在時機和我們所處的市場方面採取機會主義態度。因此，我們已經為這些機會做好了準備。我想你會看到我們會考慮多種不同的途徑來籌集債務，而不是等到最後才嘗試在一個市場上完成這一切。

And Angie, this is Jim. I'll add to Kris' comments on that. The idea, obviously, with this provision as it was conceived in order to execute on this transaction and keep a strong balance sheet did obviously do 2 things: It highlighted the amount of our earnings stream that has a zero greenhouse gas emissions profile, it also created an investment vehicle for some of the key shareholders for Energy Harbor to participate in this future entity.

安吉，這是吉姆。我將補充克里斯對此的評論。顯然，這個想法是為了執行這項交易並保持強大的資產負債表而構思的，它顯然做了兩件事：它強調了我們的收入流的溫室氣體排放量為零，它還為能源港的一些主要股東創建了一個投資工具，以參與這個未來的實體。

I still step back and think about this as a customer business that is -- that has a changing sort of view of what they are looking for from the electric grid, including a more sustainable grid, but also a reliable grid. That, in essence, is Vistra. I mean that is what we're doing. We're doing it. We're expressing it through different transactions. Energy Harbor, obviously, is the most significant one. But with the Ambit and Crius and growing our retail presence and then our launching of our own opportunities with Vistra Zero.

我仍然退後一步，將其視為客戶業務，即他們對電網的需求正在發生變化，包括更可持續的電網，但也包括可靠的電網。從本質上講，這就是瑞致達。我的意思是，這就是我們正在做的事情。我們正在做。我們通過不同的交易來表達它。能源港顯然是最重要的一個。但隨著 Ambit 和 Crius 的發展以及我們零售業務的增長，然後我們通過 Vistra Zero 推出了我們自己的機會。

So the Dis-Synergies that could come about by saying that this business is only this and this business is only that is not really how the electric grid functions. It is obviously a way in which we can think about investors and how they want to express their point of view of what they invest in. But I think we can achieve that even with the structure we have here.

因此，通過說這項業務僅此而已而產生的去協同效應並不是電網真正的運作方式。顯然，這是我們思考投資者以及他們如何表達自己對投資的觀點的一種方式。但我認為，即使採用我們這裡的結構，我們也可以實現這一目標。

And most importantly, we're still a fundamentals-based view on value, and we invest in things that generate long-term sustainable cash flows. I know folks do talk to us about what do we think it might take to get a rerate, that's in some level out of our control. What is in our control is our ability to make good decisions, take advantage of the market opportunities as they come about, create some on our own and serve customers extremely well.

最重要的是，我們仍然堅持基於基本面的價值觀點，我們投資於能夠產生長期可持續現金流的事物。我知道人們確實與我們談論我們認為需要什麼才能獲得重新定價，這在某種程度上是我們無法控制的。我們能控制的是我們做出正確決策、利用市場機會、自己創造機會以及為客戶提供優質服務的能力。

And if we do that, we're going to return capital to shareholders very aggressively and pay down debt. And I think that's a winning model. It just may not come with the shorter-term moves that some people might want to see, but I think we're building an enduring business. And I think that's attractive for investors, and we're prepared to execute on that.

如果我們這樣做，我們將非常積極地向股東返還資本並償還債務。我認為這是一個成功的模式。它可能不會帶來一些人可能希望看到的短期舉措，但我認為我們正在建立一個持久的業務。我認為這對投資者很有吸引力，我們準備好執行這一點。

That's great. And just the last one question. So you mentioned on some of that we're seeing relatively limited liquidity in those forward curves for power, right? There's always this question, is gas more liquid versus power and maybe those spark spreads that look incredible in forward years. I mean, that are just to good to be true. So I mean, is there a way for you to basically capture that strength even with limited trading liquidity in power markets, either through some derivative transactions, gas-driven hedges, you name it.

那太棒了。還有最後一個問題。所以你提到我們在電力遠期曲線中看到相對有限的流動性，對吧？總是有這樣的問題，與電力相比，天然氣是否更具流動性，也許那些火花在未來幾年看起來令人難以置信。我的意思是，這真是太好了。所以我的意思是，有沒有一種方法可以讓你在電力市場的交易流動性有限的情況下基本上抓住這種優勢，無論是通過一些衍生品交易、天然氣驅動的對沖等等。

Yes, Angie, we can. Obviously, gas is more liquid than power. And gas many times is a good proxy for power. But to your point, it's not a perfect proxy for power.

是的，安吉，我們可以。顯然，天然氣比電力更具流動性。天然氣很多時候是電力的一個很好的代表。但就你而言，它並不是權力的完美代表。

And Steve, why don't you comment a little bit on some of the things that we do to try to use liquidity efficient means and how we're thinking about capturing this value. Because we are sensitive Angie, that the further out we go, depending on how we hedge, there obviously is a use of liquidity. We balance that into our thinking. And we're not also thinking that these curves just go away tomorrow.

史蒂夫，你為什麼不對我們為嘗試使用流動性有效手段所做的一些事情以及我們如何考慮獲取這一價值發表一些評論。因為我們是敏感的安吉，我們走得越遠，取決於我們如何對沖，顯然會使用流動性。我們將其平衡到我們的想法中。我們也不認為這些曲線明天就會消失。

Because again, the fundamentals of what we think is happening with the electric grid, speak to reliability and assets with flexibility, which is our portfolio, and we think those are getting valued and they're getting valued differently than they have in the past because reliability was taken for granted.

因為我們認為電網正在發生的基本面涉及可靠性和靈活性資產，這是我們的投資組合，我們認為這些正在受到重視，而且它們的估值與過去不同，因為可靠性被認為是理所當然的。

Steve, why don't you comment a little bit on how we're thinking about locking this in.

史蒂夫，你為什麼不評論一下我們如何考慮鎖定這個問題呢？

Sure. I think for nuclear assets, gas is a decent proxy as a hedge, and so we are able to use gas instruments like the NYMEX and different NYMEX structures to at least either lock in value or put a range of value in place to kind of protect downside. But we do have the PTC, so that's a consideration.

當然。我認為對於核資產來說，天然氣是一個不錯的對沖工具，因此我們能夠使用 NYMEX 等天然氣工具和不同的 NYMEX 結構來至少鎖定價值或設置一系列價值以進行保護缺點。但我們確實有 PTC，所以這是一個考慮因素。

In terms of the sparks we do have to buy the gas in order to lock in the spark. And some of the specific gas locations is more challenging. I think ERCOT, PJM, there's more liquidity than places like New England for sure. But we try to do it in a liquidity efficient manner because as you get out further, the independent postings or the independent -- the initial margins that you have to post with exchanges can be quite expensive as you go out in time. And so we're looking at trying to increase credit using first lien structures when we go out that far or even bilaterally with counterparties to get that done. And so it's a little bit slower from both because we're trying to use liquidity efficient channels and also going directly to customers and on other wholesale counterparties.

就火花而言，我們確實必須購買氣體才能鎖定火花。而且一些特定的天然氣地點更具挑戰性。我認為 ERCOT、PJM 肯定比新英格蘭這樣的地方有更多的流動性。但我們嘗試以流動性有效的方式做到這一點，因為當您進一步走出去時，獨立過帳或獨立 - 您必須在交易所過帳的初始保證金可能會相當昂貴，因為您及時走出去。因此，我們正在考慮嘗試使用第一留置權結構來增加信貸，甚至與交易對手進行雙邊合作以實現這一目標。因此，兩者的速度都要慢一些，因為我們正在嘗試使用流動性高效的渠道，並直接面向客戶和其他批發交易對手。

But it is something we've begun working on in '26, even out as far as '27, but it will definitely take time. And again, trying to use liquidity efficient channels is important like first liens and direct to bilaterals.

但這是我們從 26 年開始致力於的事情，甚至從 27 年開始，但這肯定需要時間。同樣，嘗試使用流動性有效渠道很重要，例如第一留置權和直接雙邊交易。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議轉回吉姆·伯克先生髮表閉幕詞。

Yes, thank you. I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. We appreciate your interest in Vistra. And please know that our Vistra team is working hard to execute well for the summer and our strategic priorities, and we look forward to giving you future updates. Have a great morning, everyone. Thanks.

是的，謝謝。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們感謝您對瑞致達的興趣。請注意，我們的瑞致達團隊正在努力執行夏季和我們的戰略重點，我們期待為您提供未來的更新。祝大家早上愉快。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。