Vistra Corp (VST) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Vistra's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Meagan Horn, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加瑞致達 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。今天的演講結束後，將有機會提問。 （操作員說明）。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁梅根·霍恩 (Meagan Horn)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our third quarter 2023 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and the earnings release. Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra's senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

早安，感謝大家加入瑞致達的投資者網路廣播，討論我們的 2023 年第三季業績。我們今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。在那裡，您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。今天的電話會議由瑞致達總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke) 主持。以及瑞致達執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。瑞致達其他高階主管將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。瑞致達網站投資者關係部分的新聞稿和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Thanks. And I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報幻燈片2 中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非公認會計準則的使用財務措施。謝謝。我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke)。

Thank you, Meagan. Good morning, and I appreciate all of you for taking the time to join our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I am proud to deliver our third quarter results this morning, which was a very successful quarter for all facets of the business. We'll start this morning on Slide 5. I'll speak to this quarter's operational and financial performance in more detail in a moment, but notably, this quarter's adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of approximately $1.6 billion underscored Vistra's capability of achieving consistently strong earnings through its integrated business model with excellent operational performance by each of our generation, retail and commercial teams and a variety of pricing and weather environments.

謝謝你，梅根。早安，感謝大家花時間參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我很自豪今天早上公佈我們的第三季業績，對於業務的各個方面來說，這是一個非常成功的季度。我們將從今天早上的幻燈片5 開始。稍後我將更詳細地討論本季的營運和財務業績，但值得注意的是，本季持續營運的調整後EBITDA 約為16 億美元，突顯了瑞致達實現持續強勁盈利的能力透過其綜合業務模式以及我們每一代人、零售和商業團隊的卓越營運績效以及各種定價和天氣環境。

In the prior 2 quarters, we experienced average power prices clearing lower than our realized hedge prices, which highlighted the significant downside risk protection to our earnings at our comprehensive hedging strategy provides. This quarter, that scenario held in the markets outside of ERCOT where milder weather kept prices lower. In these markets, we were able to capitalize on our dynamic position management of our hedged portfolio to capture significant earnings in our Generation segment. We saw this paradigm flip in the ERCOT market and while we were significantly hedged, we did have some open length and the generation fleet's operating flexibility was optimized by our integrated teams to respond to higher market prices while keeping the lights and much needed air conditioning on at competitive prices for our customers throughout the markets we serve.

在前兩個季度，我們的平均電價清算低於我們已實現的對沖價格，這凸顯了我們的綜合對沖策略為我們的收益提供了重大的下行風險保護。本季度，ERCOT 以外的市場也出現了這種情況，溫和的天氣導致價格走低。在這些市場中，我們能夠利用對沖投資組合的動態部位管理來獲取發電部門的可觀收益。我們在ERCOT 市場中看到了這種範式翻轉，雖然我們進行了大幅對沖，但我們確實有一些開放長度，並且我們的綜合團隊優化了發電機組的營運靈活性，以應對更高的市場價格，同時保持燈光和急需的空調開啟以具有競爭力的價格為我們服務的整個市場的客戶提供服務。

With each of our 4 strategic priorities, our aim is to challenge ourselves with high performance goals and then consistently deliver. To that end, this quarter, you saw us continue to advance our other 3 strategic priorities as well as we focused on a strong balance sheet, our capital return program and our energy transition goals.

對於我們的 4 個策略重點中的每一個，我們的目標都是以高績效目標挑戰自我，然後持續實現目標。為此，本季度，我們繼續推動其他 3 個策略重點，並專注於強勁的資產負債表、資本回報計劃和能源轉型目標。

As of November 2, we've now returned over $3.785 billion of capital to our shareholders through share buybacks and our dividend program since the capital allocation was first announced in November of 2021. After we closed Energy Harbor acquisition and develop a long-range plan for the combined company, we will work with our Board on a new multiyear capital allocation plan and expect to disclose the specifics of that plan in the first half of 2024.

自 2021 年 11 月首次宣布資本分配以來，截至 11 月 2 日，我們已透過股票回購和股息計劃向股東返還超過 37.85 億美元的資本。在我們完成 Energy Harbor 收購併製定長期計劃之後對於合併後的公司，我們將與董事會合作制定新的多年資本分配計劃，並預計在2024 年上半年披露該計劃的具體細節。

In the meantime, we continue to opportunistically invest in renewables and energy storage growth including our expectation that we will begin construction in spring of 2024 on our 3 largest solar and energy storage developments located at our former Illinois coal plant sites while maintaining our sub-3x leverage ratio.

同時，我們繼續投機投資再生能源和能源儲存成長，包括我們預計將於2024 年春季開始建造位於前伊利諾伊州燃煤電廠的3 個最大太陽能和能源儲存開發項目，同時保持低於3 倍的發電量槓桿比率。

I want to move now to Slide 6 to discuss our third quarter operational performance. This past quarter, we saw unprecedented heat in ERCOT. It was the hottest third quarter on record, even beating the record-setting heat of 2011. Temperatures in Texas were 6 degrees above normal in August and early September, frequently topping 105 degrees in Dallas and over 100 degrees in Houston and San Antonio. Cooling degree days were 23% above the 30-year normal for the June through September comparable time period and ERCOT set a new peak demand 10 different times this summer.

我現在想轉到投影片 6 來討論我們第三季的營運表現。上個季度，我們看到了 ERCOT 前所未有的熱度。這是有史以​​來最熱的第三季度，甚至超過了2011 年創紀錄的高溫。德州8 月和9 月初的氣溫比正常水平高6 度，達拉斯經常超過105 度，休士頓和聖安東尼奧超過100 度。 6 月至 9 月可比時期的降溫天數比 30 年正常水平高出 23%，ERCOT 今年夏天 10 次設定了新的需求高峰。

On August 10, ERCOT experienced its all-time record peak load of over 85,000 megawatts. It was vital for our generation team to keep the plants running in these extreme conditions to ensure that people of Texas could continue to live and work in healthy and comfortable environment.

8 月 10 日，ERCOT 經歷了超過 85,000 兆瓦的歷史尖峰負載。對於我們的發電團隊來說，在這些極端條件下保持工廠運作至關重要，以確保德州人民能夠繼續在健康舒適的環境中生活和工作。

In ERCOT, the solar generation ramp down hours of around 6 to 8 p.m. have proven to be a critical time period for the grid. It is still very hot during those times with strong customer energy demand, but it is also the time period where we see solar start to ramp down, and at times, the wind may not make up the difference, especially in August. The ERCOT grid is operationally complex, having to predict the availability of not only dispatchable resources, but also intermittent resources such as solar and wind, limited duration energy storage and demand response activities.

在 ERCOT，太陽能發電時間在下午 6 點至 8 點左右逐漸減少。事實證明，這是電網的關鍵時期。在客戶能源需求旺盛的時期，天氣仍然非常炎熱，但這也是我們看到太陽能開始減少的時期，有時，風可能無法彌補差異，尤其是在八月。 ERCOT 電網運作複雜，不僅需要預測可調度資源的可用性，還需要預測太陽能和風能等間歇性資源、有限持續時間的能源儲存和需求響應活動的可用性。

As the generation mix of intermittent resources increases, ERCOT needs more reserves as a backstop to ensure there is adequate generation to cover demand and avoid emergency conditions. In these scenarios, you see flexible generation fleets like ours ramping [the meet] as much of this demand as possible. And that is exactly what we did, exceeding 97% commercial availability on average during those critical hours.

隨著間歇性資源發電組合的增加，ERCOT 需要更多的儲備作為後盾，以確保有足夠的發電量來滿足需求並避免緊急情況。在這些場景中，您會看到像我們這樣的靈活發電艦隊會盡可能地[滿足]這一需求。這正是我們所做的，在這些關鍵時間內平均商業可用性超過 97%。

During these tough weather seasons, our #1 priority is ensuring our customers can consistently access competitively priced power to maintain their quality of life and keep the economy strong. That's where our retail business excelled. This summer's marketing campaigns featured several differentiated products tailored to our customers' needs, including a seasonal discount product that helps customers manage the size of their electricity bill through the higher usage summer months. Our customer-focused multi-brand and marketing channel strategy and responsive service allowed us to grow our ERCOT residential customer counts over the prior quarter.

在這些惡劣的天氣季節，我們的首要任務是確保我們的客戶能夠持續獲得價格有競爭力的電力，以維持他們的生活品質並保持經濟強勁。這就是我們零售業務的優勢所在。今年夏季的行銷活動推出了多種根據客戶需求量身定制的差異化產品，其中包括季節性折扣產品，可幫助客戶在夏季使用量較高的月份中管理電費規模。我們以客戶為中心的多品牌和行銷管道策略以及響應式服務使我們能夠比上一季度增加 ERCOT 住宅客戶數量。

In addition, our business market segment grew customer volume 16% year-over-year as strong margins. While the retail and generation teams stood ready to meet these demands for our customers and the people we serve, our commercial team optimized our financial position to create significant value for our shareholders. Specifically in August, the ERCOT market saw average real-time pricing around $196 with 43 hours in August clearing over $1,000. And during those critical hours at 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. in August, we saw prices clear on average around $843.

此外，由於利潤強勁，我們的業務細分市場客戶數量年增 16%。雖然零售和發電團隊已準備好滿足我們的客戶和我們服務的人員的這些需求，但我們的商業團隊優化了我們的財務狀況，為我們的股東創造了巨大的價值。具體來說，8 月份，ERCOT 市場的平均即時定價約為 196 美元，8 月份 43 小時內清算價格超過 1,000 美元。在下午 6 點的關鍵時刻。至晚上 8 點8 月份，我們看到平均價格約為 843 美元。

Leveraging customer usage insights and our generation fleets strong commercial availability, our commercial team optimized and managed our risk position to create significant value on our open positions. The commercial team further set us up for success in our markets outside of ERCOT, where the weather was milder, strategically managing our positions and flexing our generation output to optimize our hedge positions and achieve strong results for the quarter. We see this trend of new peak demand records at ERCOT continuing for the foreseeable planning horizon, demand that we believe our retail products are designed to attract and our diverse and flexible generation fleet is uniquely positioned to serve.

利用客戶使用洞察和我們的發電機組強大的商業可用性，我們的商業團隊優化和管理我們的風險狀況，為我們的未平倉部位創造顯著價值。商業團隊進一步幫助我們在 ERCOT 以外的市場取得成功，那裡的天氣較為溫和，戰略性地管理我們的頭寸並調整我們的發電輸出，以優化我們的對沖頭寸並在本季度取得強勁業績。我們看到 ERCOT 的新高峰需求記錄趨勢在可預見的規劃範圍內持續存在，我們相信我們的零售產品旨在吸引這些需求，而我們多樣化且靈活的發電車隊具有獨特的優勢來服務。

Moving now to Slide 7. Again, I am proud of the team's exceptional tightly coordinated performance this quarter that helped Vistra achieve its $1,613 million of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA. Not only did the retail team grow residential customer accounts, TXU Energy maintained the PUC of Texas 5-star rating, extending its streak to 12 straight months.

現在轉到投影片 7。我再次對團隊本季緊密協調的卓越績效感到自豪，幫助瑞致達實現了 16.13 億美元的持續營運調整後 EBITDA。零售團隊不僅增加了住宅客戶帳戶，TXU Energy 還保持了德克薩斯州 PUC 5 星級評級，將其連續 12 個月延長。

Our ERCOT fleet delivered 2.5 terawatt hours more than any other quarter's output in at least the past 10 years, a 10% increase over the next highest quarterly generation output achieved in the third quarter of 2019. It was a notable feat that when paired with a strong performance by the commercial team to adapt to a variety of weather conditions, created significant value across all of our markets. With the important summer months behind us and only 2 months left in the year, today, we are raising and narrowing the guidance range we announced last quarter from $3.6 billion to $4 billion in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations to now $3.95 billion to $4.1 billion.

我們的ERCOT 機組的發電量至少比過去10 年來任何其他季度的發電量都高出2.5 太瓦時，比2019 年第三季度實現的下一個最高季度發電量增加了10%。這是一項值得注意的壯舉，與商業團隊在適應各種天氣條件方面表現出色，在我們所有的市場上創造了巨大的價值。重要的夏季已經過去，今年只剩下兩個月了，今天，我們將上季宣布的指導範圍從36 億美元調整至40 億美元，調整後EBITDA（持續營運）調整至目前的39.5 億美元至41 億美元。

We are similarly increasing and narrowing the range of adjusted free cash flow before growth from ongoing operations to a new range of $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion.

我們同樣將持續經營業務成長前的調整後自由現金流範圍擴大並縮小至 23.5 億美元至 25 億美元的新範圍。

Turning now to Slide 8. We introduced 2024 guidance ranges for Vistra stand-alone without including any Energy Harbor contributions. We are forecasting adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations in the range of $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth from ongoing operations in the range of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion. Notably, our ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint for 2024 of $3.9 billion is higher than the midpoint opportunities we previewed on our most recent earnings call in the range of $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion.

現在轉向幻燈片 8。我們介紹了瑞致達獨立的 2024 年指導範圍，不包括任何能源港貢獻。我們預計持續經營業務調整後的 EBITDA 將在 37 億美元至 41 億美元之間，而持續經營業務成長前的調整後自由現金流將在 19 億美元至 23 億美元之間。值得注意的是，我們 2024 年持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 中點為 39 億美元，高於我們在最近的財報電話會議上預測的 37 億美元至 38 億美元的中點機會。

We are confident in our forecast as we expect consistent earnings from our retail business paired with expected strong performances from our reliable, diverse and flexible generation fleet that stands ready to deliver in a variety of economic and weather conditions, just as it has this year. Of course, we will update our guidance ranges to include Energy Harbor performance expectations after we close the acquisition.

我們對我們的預測充滿信心，因為我們預計我們的零售業務將實現持續的盈利，同時我們可靠、多樣化和靈活的發電機組也將表現強勁，這些發電機組隨時準備在各種經濟和天氣條件下發電，就像今年一樣。當然，在完成收購後，我們將更新我們的指導範圍，以包括 Energy Harbor 的業績預期。

Speaking of the Energy Harbor acquisition, Slide 9 provides an update on the status of the transaction. Since we last spoke, we have received approval from the NRC in September, and we declared substantial compliance with the DOJ's second request on August 31. We have responded to all requests from FERC, and that process is progressing. Given our commitment to sell the Richland/Stryker generation plants, which we believe eliminates any potential remaining concerns around market competition, we continue to target a closing before the end of the year.

談到能源港收購，幻燈片 9 提供了交易狀態的最新資訊。自我們上次發言以來，我們已於9 月獲得了NRC 的批准，並於8 月31 日宣布基本遵守了DOJ 的第二項要求。我們已回復了FERC 的所有要求，並且該流程正在取得進展。鑑於我們承諾出售 Richland/Stryker 發電廠，我們相信這消除了有關市場競爭的任何潛在的剩餘擔憂，我們繼續目標是在年底前關閉。

Our team has worked with the Energy Harbor team to prepare for a smooth integration, and we are prepared to close the transaction promptly after receiving approval from FERC. As noted before, we intend to provide combined Vistra and Energy Harbor forecast and guidance information after we close the acquisition. But as shown on Slide 9, we continue to expect the Energy Harbor business to deliver an average of approximately $750 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2024 and 2025 including the impact of the hedges and synergies with that number growing to approximately $900 million when considered on an open basis.

我們的團隊與Energy Harbor團隊合作，為順利整合做好準備，我們準備在獲得FERC批准後立即完成交易。如前所述，我們打算在完成收購後提供瑞致達和能源港的合併預測和指導資訊。但如幻燈片9 所示，我們仍預期能源港業務將在2024 年和2025 年實現平均約7.5 億美元的調整後EBITDA，包括對沖和協同效應的影響，考慮到這一數字將增長至約9億美元。開放基礎。

I'll now turn the call over to Kris to discuss our quarterly performance in more detail.

我現在將把電話轉給克里斯，更詳細地討論我們的季度業績。

Thank you, Jim. Turning to Slide 11. Vistra's performance in Q3 2023 was a reflection of available opportunities and outstanding execution throughout the country by both our Generation and Retail segments.

謝謝你，吉姆。轉向投影片 11。瑞致達 2023 年第三季的業績反映了我們的發電和零售部門在全國範圍內的可用機會和出色的執行力。

Generation segment exhibited the benefits of maintaining a diverse, flexible and durable fleet of assets with the team delivering strong results in both ERCOT where third quarter temperatures were on average the hottest on record and outside of ERCOT, where temperatures were milder. Notably, the $1,440 million in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations delivered by the Generation segment in Q3 2023 was almost $400 million higher than the same quarter last year.

發電部門展示了維持多樣化、靈活和耐用的資產組的好處，該團隊在ERCOT 和ERCOT 之外的地區都取得了強勁的業績，其中第三季度的平均氣溫是有記錄以來最熱的，而ERCOT 以外的地區氣溫則較為溫和。值得注意的是，2023 年第三季發電部門持續營運的調整後 EBITDA 為 14.4 億美元，比去年同期高出近 4 億美元。

Moving to the Retail segment. Despite the challenges of high loads and prices in ERCOT in Q3, the Retail team delivered outstanding results for the quarter by focusing on customer counts and margins and consistently optimizing its supply position throughout the quarter. Although Retail is not typically expected to contribute much adjusted EBITDA, if any, in the summer months when prices are higher, the team was able to deliver $173 million in Q3 this year.

轉向零售領域。儘管 ERCOT 在第三季度面臨高負載和高價格的挑戰，但零售團隊透過專注於客戶數量和利潤並在整個季度持續優化其供應狀況，在本季度取得了出色的業績。儘管通常預計零售業不會在價格較高的夏季貢獻太多調整後的 EBITDA（如果有的話），但該團隊在今年第三季度實現了 1.73 億美元的收入。

Looking at year-to-date, each of the Generation and Retail segments are outperforming as compared to last year with Vistra earning over $800 million more in ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA through the third quarter of this year as compared to the same period in 2022. We are proud of the team's execution thus far this year, and we are looking forward to finishing the year strong.

從今年迄今來看，發電和零售領域的表現均優於去年，瑞致達截至今年第三季的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 收入比 2022 年同期增加了 8 億美元以上。我們對團隊今年迄今的執行力感到自豪，並期待以強勁的勢頭結束這一年。

Turning to Slide 12. We provide an update on the execution of our capital allocation plan. As of November 2, we had executed approximately $3.26 billion of share repurchases, leading to an approximately 26% reduction in the number of shares that were outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to utilize the remaining approximately $1 billion of the total $4.25 billion authorization by year-end 2024.

轉向投影片 12。我們提供了有關資本分配計畫執行的最新資訊。截至 11 月 2 日，我們已執行約 32.6 億美元的股票回購，導致 2021 年第四季流通在外的股票數量減少約 26%。我們預計將利用總額 4.25 美元中​​剩餘的約 10 億美元到2024 年底授權金額達10 億美元。

However, as Jim noted, we do expect to review our capital available for allocation shortly after we close the Energy Harbor acquisition and would expect to announce a new comprehensive capital allocation plan in the first half of 2024.

然而，正如吉姆所指出的那樣，我們確實預計在完成能源港收購後不久就會審查可用於分配的資本，並預計在 2024 年上半年宣布一項新的全面資本分配計劃。

Moving to our dividend program. We announced last week a fourth quarter 2023 common stock dividend of $0.2130 per share which represents a substantial growth of 42% over the dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2021 when our capital allocation plan was first established. This growth highlights the significant returns available to our shareholders as we reduce share count while paying a constant quarterly dividend amount.

轉向我們的股利計畫。我們上週宣布 2023 年第四季普通股股息為每股 0.2130 美元，比我們首次製定資本配置計畫時 2021 年第四季支付的股息大幅增加 42%。這種成長突顯了我們的股東可以獲得的顯著回報，因為我們減少了股份數量，同時支付了恆定的季度股息金額。

Turning to the balance sheet. In light of the results achieved in the third quarter, culminating an updated 2023 guidance ranges, Vistra's net leverage ratio currently sits significantly below 3x. While net debt will increase upon closing of the Energy Harbor acquisition, we currently expect our net leverage ratio to be below 3x on a pro forma basis in 2024.

轉向資產負債表。鑑於第三季的業績，最終更新了 2023 年指引範圍，瑞致達的淨槓桿率目前遠低於 3 倍。雖然能源港收購完成後淨債務將會增加，但我們目前預計 2024 年我們的淨槓桿率預計將低於 3 倍。

Finally, in addition to the transformation we are achieving with the Energy Harbor acquisition, the team has been busy with development and pre-construction activity this year at our 3 largest solar and energy storage developments at our former Illinois coal plant sites for which we now anticipate construction to begin next spring. Despite some headwinds in this higher cost and interest rate environment, these projects continue to comfortably exceed our targeted return thresholds. As we've stated before, we believe in a responsible energy transition that targets disciplined capital outlays for strategic projects and the zero carbon generation growth we will achieve with these 3 coal to solar sites are reflective of that core principle.

最後，除了我們透過能源港收購實現的轉型之外，該團隊今年還忙於在前伊利諾伊州燃煤電廠場地進行3 個最大的太陽能和儲能開發項目的開發和施工前活動，我們現在正在開發這些工程預計明年春天開始施工。儘管在成本和利率較高的環境中遇到一些阻力，這些項目仍然輕鬆超過了我們的目標回報門檻。正如我們之前所說，我們相信負責任的能源轉型，以嚴格控制戰略項目的資本支出為目標，而我們將透過這三個煤到太陽能發電廠實現的零碳發電成長反映了這一核心原則。

Touching quickly on Slide 13, as we have done in prior quarters, we have provided an update on the out-year forward price curves as of November 2. While the ERCOT forward price curve continues to reflect some backwardation, the prices still remain higher than the April 29, 2022 curves when we first spoke to you about increased EBITDA earnings potential in the out years. The curves and sparks are holding together well and support our initiated 2024 guidance ranges. Those curves, together with the continued execution of our comprehensive hedging program, provide us confidence in an adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations midpoint opportunity for 2025 in the range of $3.8 billion to $4 billion.

快速觸及投影片13，正如我們在前幾季所做的那樣，我們提供了截至11 月2 日的年外遠期價格曲線的更新。雖然ERCOT 遠期價格曲線繼續反映一些現貨溢價，但價格仍然高於2022 年 4 月 29 日的曲線，當時我們第一次與您談論未來幾年 EBITDA 盈利潛力的增長。曲線和火花很好地結合在一起，支持我們發起的 2024 年指導範圍。這些曲線，加上我們全面對沖計畫的持續執行，使我們對 2025 年持續營運中點調整後的 EBITDA 機會達到 38 億至 40 億美元充滿信心。

To wrap up, Slide 14 provides some additional breakdown of our 2024 initiated guidance ranges, including midpoint expectations among the current business segments. As we have discussed previously, the acquisition of Energy Harbor will accelerate the transformation of our company, and we expect it to alter the way we analyze our business results. Accordingly, after we closed the transaction, we expect to re-segment our businesses. While we will have more say on that after closing, we do expect to provide you with more visibility into our nuclear and renewable businesses.

最後，投影片 14 提供了我們 2024 年啟動的指導範圍的一些額外細分，包括當前業務部門的中點預期。正如我們之前所討論的，收購能源港將加速我們公司的轉型，我們預計它將改變我們分析業務成果的方式。因此，在我們完成交易後，我們預計將重新劃分我們的業務。雖然交易結束後我們將對此擁有更多發言權，但我們確實希望為您提供更多關於我們的核能和再生能源業務的可見性。

I want to reiterate Jim's comments. We are extremely proud of the collaborative work and performance of each of our Generation, Retail and Commercial teams. We have great line of sight to keep that momentum going for the foreseeable future. And we will keep striving to meet the expectations of our customers and our communities to keep the lights on in an affordable and reliable manner in markets in which we operate. And at the same time, we will manage the company in a cost-efficient and strategic manner to continue producing adjusted free cash flow yields that we are translating directly into significant returns for our shareholders.

我想重申吉姆的評論。我們對每個發電、零售和商業團隊的協作工作和表現感到非常自豪。我們有良好的願景，可以在可預見的未來保持這一勢頭。我們將繼續努力滿足客戶和社區的期望，以經濟實惠且可靠的方式在我們營運的市場上保持正常運作。同時，我們將以具成本效益和策略性的方式管理公司，以繼續產生調整後的自由現金流收益率，並將其直接轉化為股東的可觀回報。

I know I speak on behalf of all of our employees and partners when I say that we are striving to end 2023 on a strong note and to execute against our targets for 2024. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

我知道，當我說我們正在努力以強有力的方式結束 2023 年並執行我們的 2024 年目標時，我代表我們所有的員工和合作夥伴發言。運營商，我們已經準備好開通這條線路了問題。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Michael Sullivan。

Jim, just wanted to start with maybe what kind of gives you conviction in being able to close the deal by the year-end, and we'll be able to hear something from FERC in a timely manner here?

吉姆，我只是想先談談什麼樣的因素能讓您確信能夠在年底前完成交易，我們將能夠在這裡及時聽到 FERC 的消息？

Yes, Michael. We've noted the progress that we've made with this transaction. Originally, we thought NRC would be the longer pole in the tent, and we were pleased to get that approval a few months ago. Where we sit at the moment is we've got feedback from DOJ, and we think we've addressed DOJ's concern. We expect to have addressed FERC's concern by selling the Richland/Stryker facility. We did not think it was a concern at the time we initiated the deal, and we still don't believe that's a concern. But out of an abundance of caution, we are making that move.

是的，邁克爾。我們已經注意到本次交易所的進展。最初，我們認為 NRC 會是帳篷中較長的桿子，我們很高興幾個月前獲得了批准。目前我們收到了司法部的回饋，我們認為我們已經解決了司法部的擔憂。我們希望透過出售 Richland/Stryker 設施來解決 FERC 的擔憂。在我們發起交易時，我們並不認為這是一個問題，而且我們仍然認為這不是一個問題。但出於高度謹慎，我們正在採取這項行動。

We have obviously responded to all of their information requests and the interveners have done the same. So our anticipation is that FERC has all the information that they need. We've asked for a feedback by the middle of November. We feel confident that we'll get to something by the end of this year and that we target to -- we're planning and targeting to close by the end of this year. But I think it's just been a process, Michael, and it's been one that we've been obviously very responsive to and I think from a FERC standpoint, they've got the information and they've got to do their due diligence, but there's been no new issues raised to us at this point, and that's why we think we're going to get this done by year-end.

顯然，我們已經回應了他們的所有資訊請求，幹預者也做了同樣的事情。因此，我們期望 FERC 擁有他們需要的所有資訊。我們已要求在 11 月中旬之前提供回饋。我們相信我們將在今年年底前取得一些成果，而我們的目標是——我們計劃並目標是在今年年底前完成。但我認為這只是一個過程，邁克爾，我們顯然對此反應非常積極，我認為從 FERC 的角度來看，他們已經掌握了信息，並且必須進行盡職調查，但是目前還沒有向我們提出新問題，這就是為什麼我們認為我們將在年底前完成這項工作。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just on the new financial outlook here, I wanted to ask on some of the dynamics below EBITDA and at the free cash flow line. So it looks like the free cash flow for '23 actually improved more than EBITDA, so I wanted to get a sense what's driving that? And then it looks like the conversion to free cash then drops again in '24? And just also on that I wanted to confirm like does that include the interest cost associated with the debt you issued for Energy Harbor, but obviously not the EBITDA yet. Yes. Sorry, that was a bunch here, but...

好的。這非常有幫助。然後就新的財務前景而言，我想詢問 EBITDA 和自由現金流線以下的一些動態。所以看起來 23 年的自由現金流實際上比 EBITDA 改善得更多，所以我想知道是什麼推動了這一點？然後看起來自由現金的轉換在 24 年再次下降？同樣，我想確認一下，這是否包括與您為能源港發行的債務相關的利息成本，但顯然還沒有包括 EBITDA。是的。抱歉，這裡有一堆，但...

Yes, Michael, thank you for that. I'll start by saying that our results for this year, which obviously we've continued to guide up as we've gone through the year, most of that improvement is EBITDA-driven, and we did a nice job operating in the third quarter with extreme opportunities with pricing and weather being coincident, particularly in ERCOT. That EBITDA largely drops through to the bottom line when we built the plan at the beginning of the year, you wouldn't have expected the kind of weather conditions that actually played out. So that free cash flow in this near term, obviously, will fall through, and you're seeing that improved conversion. We started the year with an expected lower conversion rate because we wouldn't have had this kind of EBITDA opportunity built into a more normal weather scenario.

是的，邁克爾，謝謝你。我首先要說的是，我們今年的業績，顯然我們在這一年中一直在繼續指導，大部分改進是 EBITDA 驅動的，我們在第三季度的運營方面做得很好定價和天氣同時發生的極端機會，特別是在ERCOT。當我們在年初制定計劃時，EBITDA 很大程度上會下降到底線，你不會預料到實際發生的天氣狀況。因此，短期內的自由現金流顯然會下降，而且您會看到轉換率有所提高。我們年初的預期轉換率較低，因為在更正常的天氣情況下，我們不會有這種 EBITDA 機會。

We actually talked about free cash flow conversion being a little bit lower in '23 and '24 when we set our plans and we talked about the capital required to run the units pulling in some of the long-term service agreement spend for CapEx was one of the main drivers. You'll see in the capacity factors that are in the back of the deck, our units have been running really well, but they've also been running hard. And so we'll spend some capital in '24 and probably have to spend some capital in '25 to make sure the fleet stays in tip top condition. And so I think the surprise was not where we see '24 playing out from a free cash flow conversion, we actually had some positive free cash flow conversion due to the EBITDA opportunities that came our way in '23. As far as Energy Harbor interest and how we're thinking about that financing and its effect on our results in '23 -- in '24, I'll ask Kris to comment.

實際上，當我們制定計劃時，我們談到了 23 和 24 年的自由現金流轉換有點低，並且我們談到了運行這些單位所需的資本，其中一些長期服務協議支出用於資本支出是一個的主要驅動力。您會在甲板後面的容量因素中看到，我們的設備運行得非常好，但它們也運行得非常艱難。因此，我們將在 24 年花費一些資金，並且可能必須在 25 年花費一些資金，以確保機隊保持最佳狀態。因此，我認為令人驚訝的不是我們看到 24 年自由現金流轉換的結果，實際上，由於 23 年出現的 EBITDA 機會，我們實現了一些積極的自由現金流轉換。至於能源港的興趣以及我們如何考慮融資及其對我們 23 年 - 24 年業績的影響，我將請 Kris 發表評論。

Yes, Michael, I think you hit it. There are a couple of factors. For 2023, we did plan for some financing that would have some interest that would hit into 2023. And those were -- we didn't execute a financing until later in the year, and the first interest payment on that financing will be next year. So we actually -- it's a little bit counterintuitive, but versus our plan from the start of the year, we're in a benefit position on interest for 2023. And then you're right, 2024, the number that you're seeing here does take into account the interest expense on the debt that we raised for Energy Harbor and that we're holding right now. And as you noted, we don't have any contribution from Energy Harbor results.

是的，邁克爾，我想你成功了。有幾個因素。對於 2023 年，我們確實計劃進行一些融資，這些融資將在 2023 年產生一些利息。這些是——我們直到今年晚些時候才執行融資，該融資的第一筆利息將在明年支付。所以我們實際上——這有點違反直覺，但與我們年初的計劃相比，我們在 2023 年的利息方面處於有利地位。然後你是對的，2024 年，你看到的數字這裡確實考慮了我們為能源港籌集的債務的利息支出以及我們目前持有的債務。正如您所指出的，我們沒有從能源港結果中獲得任何貢獻。

The next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Really appreciate the opportunity to connect here. Just coming back to the capital allocation update commentary from the call real quickly. I mean, obviously, you're going to be introducing a new year in the first half of the year, I think you said. But can you give us a little bit of a sense as to what the parameters are? I mean, is it just really about how to capitalize the business? Are you thinking about this vis-a-vis new and novel growth avenues that could be emerging here pro forma for the acquisition and/or any other directions there? I just want to make sure I'm understanding what you're saying there? Is this more about addressing the potential '25 and '26 $1 billion buybacks? Or is there something more that you're kind of alluding to in terms of how you think about the future growth of the business here?

非常感謝有機會在這裡建立聯繫。剛從電話會議中快速回到資本配置更新評論。我的意思是，顯然，你將在今年上半年引入新的一年，我想你說過。但您能否讓我們稍微了解一下參數是什麼？我的意思是，這真的只是關於如何利用業務嗎？您是否正在考慮可能在這裡出現的新的和新穎的成長途徑，以進行收購和/或那裡的任何其他方向？我只是想確保我明白你在說什麼？這更多的是為了解決 25 年和 26 年潛在的 10 億美元回購問題嗎？或者您也提到了一些關於您對這裡業務未來成長的看法？

Julien, thank you for the question. I appreciate the comprehensive question on capital allocation. I think it's several things. First of all, as asked earlier, we want to close this Energy Harbor acquisition, get -- make sure we've got embedded fully a multiyear view of the potential for that business as well as the synergies that we're anticipating to be able to deliver over a multiyear basis. We also -- because we've raised the Vistra stand-alone guidance, we see more cash available for allocation. So we want to put all of that together and go through that process of discussion, obviously, with our Board when we can have a comprehensive discussion about a number of things. We've mentioned some Vistra Zero opportunities in this deck that we will continue to execute on.

朱利安，謝謝你的提問。我很欣賞關於資本配置的全面性問題。我認為有幾件事。首先，正如先前所問的，我們希望完成此次能源港收購，確保我們對該業務的潛力以及我們預期能夠產生的協同效應有充分的多年了解多年交付。我們也－因為我們提高了瑞致達的獨立指引，我們看到更多的現金可用於配置。因此，我們希望將所有這些放在一起，並與我們的董事會一起完成討論過程，以便我們可以對許多事情進行全面的討論。我們在本牌組中提到了一些瑞致達零機會，我們將繼續執行這些機會。

The buyback program, we've been executing actually slightly ahead of pace. We would anticipate that when we come back through the approval process with the Board, they'll remain supportive of the buyback program potentially at the current or even a potential higher pacing than where we've been executing. We did not feel like going out too far at this point given that we need to close the acquisition and put the full plan together. We didn't feel just highlighting one element of a buyback amount in '25 or '26 was appropriate at this point, but our commitment to our 4 strategic priorities, and I think the execution against those has been on track, if not exceeded, and I would expect that to continue.

回購計劃，我們的執行速度實際上略超前。我們預計，當我們透過董事會的批准流程回來時，他們將繼續支持回購計劃，可能會以目前的速度，甚至可能比我們執行的速度更快。鑑於我們需要完成收購並將完整的計劃放在一起，我們此時不想走得太遠。我們認為在這一點上僅僅強調25 或26 年回購金額的一個要素並不合適，但我們對4 個戰略優先事項的承諾，我認為對這些優先事項的執行即使沒有超出，也已經步入正軌，我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

As far as growth vectors, there are a lot of things that the future holds that are still being sorted out, particularly with the Inflation Reduction Act. And are there going to be opportunities here to utilize behind-the-meter opportunity, some of the hydrogen opportunities. I think just from our standpoint, we still own nearly 60 sites worth of land and interconnect. So we've got plenty of opportunities to still develop a number of avenues of our business from a growth strategy, but they need to meet our return requirements. And I think that's the discipline we wanted to continue to demonstrate through this presentation and why we want to come back with a comprehensive capital allocation plan is, we have to look at all of the options on the table and look at the best ones and not just the ones that we've been executing on to this point.

就成長向量而言，未來還有很多事情仍在解決中，特別是《通貨膨脹削減法案》。這裡是否有機會利用用戶背後的機會，一些氫機會。我認為僅從我們的角度來看，我們仍然擁有近 60 個站點的土地和互連網絡。因此，我們有很多機會仍然可以透過成長策略來開發我們的多種業務途徑，但它們需要滿足我們的回報要求。我認為這就是我們希望透過本次演示繼續展示的紀律，為什麼我們想要回來製定全面的資本配置計劃是，我們必須考慮桌面上的所有選項，並考慮最好的選項，而不是最好的選項。只是我們到目前為止一直在執行的那些。

But I see us remaining focused on the 4 core principles, and I think that's worked well. I think our investors understand our mindset around these, and we look forward to hopefully given another set of opportunity for our investors to see how we'll create value once we close the Energy Harbor acquisition.

但我認為我們仍然專注於 4 項核心原則，而且我認為這效果很好。我認為我們的投資者了解我們對這些問題的心態，我們期待為我們的投資者提供另一組機會，讓他們了解一旦我們完成能源港收購，我們將如何創造價值。

Yes, absolutely. And just speaking of which, right, I mean, obviously, the '24 guidance today is not apples-to-apples with maybe what "Street" is using up there. I mean, any chance that you could give us a little bit of a sense of what the EH impact is mark-to-market today even in a ballpark sense to try to kind of square your guidance?

是的，一點沒錯。說到這一點，對，我的意思是，顯然，今天的 24 指南與「街道」可能正在使用的內容並不相同。我的意思是，您是否有機會讓我們稍微了解 EH 對當今市場的影響，即使是在大致意義上，以試圖與您的指導相一致？

I think, Julien, it is a little bit from a timing standpoint, an apple and an orange, but I do think you can take a couple of pieces and add them together. So if you look at our stand-alone guidance, for next year, we're looking at a midpoint of $3.9 billion. And then we unpacked the Energy Harbor '24, '25 numbers because we -- what we wanted to do, we gave you an average last time of 750. Now we're unpacking it, saying 700 for 2024. That's still using some data that we got originally through our cases, but we're tracking curves. We have a sense of things are about where they were at the time we announced the deal from a power price standpoint.

我認為，朱利安，從時間的角度來看，一個蘋果和一個橘子有點像，但我確實認為你可以把幾塊放在一起。因此，如果你看一下我們明年的獨立指引，我們預計明年的中點為 39 億美元。然後我們解開能源港'24、'25 的數字，因為我們- 我們想做的，我們上次給你的平均數為750。現在我們正在解開它，說2024 年為700。這仍在使用一些數據我們最初是透過案例得到的，但我們正在追蹤曲線。從電價的角度來看，我們知道我們宣布這筆交易時的情況。

So there alone, you're taking the 3.9 and the 700, you're getting to 4.6. We had been at a midpoint of 4.35 on average when we gave you that direction when we announced the deal. So I think the 2 pieces just added together put us north of where we have been signaling the combined opportunity. And this still has the targeted synergy levels in here. I think we could potentially exceed those targeted synergy levels, but we need to get into the business fully, have the details around that execution plan before we would upsize anything there, Julien.

因此，單獨使用 3.9 和 700，您將得到 4.6。當我們宣布這筆交易時，我們給你這個方向時，平均價格處於 4.35 的中點。因此，我認為剛剛添加到一起的兩部分使我們超出了我們一直在發出的合併機會的信號。這仍然具有目標協同水平。我認為我們有可能超過這些目標協同水平，但我們需要充分進入業務，了解執行計劃的詳細信息，然後才能擴大那裡的任何規模，朱利安。

So I do appreciate you calling out because I think there's been some consensus that is included. Energy Harbor and some that has been stand-alone. Our stand-alone is well north of anything that we have signaled at this point, and we think our Energy Harbor at this point is on track. And when we get into it, I think we might be able to find some additional upside. But at this point, we're not reflecting that.

因此，我非常感謝您的呼籲，因為我認為其中已經達成了一些共識。能源港和一些是獨立的。我們的獨立項目遠遠超出了我們目前所發出的信號，我們認為我們的能源港目前正在步入正軌。當我們進入這個領域時，我認為我們可能會發現一些額外的好處。但目前，我們還沒有反映這一點。

At least on track with those synergies, it seems.

至少看起來這些協同效應正在步入正軌。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛‧阿卡羅。

Could you comment on the retail trends that you're seeing? Do you expect this retail strength to continue? And I guess, looking into the 2024 guidance, you've got some solid growth that you're reflecting year-over-year in the Retail segment. Wondering if 2024 could be potentially considered kind of a new baseline, I guess, for the performance of that segment?

您能否評論一下您所看到的零售趨勢？您預計這種零售勢頭會持續下去嗎？我想，看看 2024 年的指導，你會發現零售領域比去年同期出現了一些穩健的成長。我想知道 2024 年是否可能被視為該細分市場表現的新基準？

Yes, David, I'll start off, but I'd like Scott Hudson, our President of Retail, to add some commentary. I think the business -- obviously, we break our business apart quite a bit. There's different geographies in the business. ERCOT has its own unique design. The other markets obviously have a different one more with the TDU, the [wires company] doing the billing. Our business has a very heavy residential footprint from an earnings profile standpoint, but a very large-scale business and profitable business in the Commercial & Industrial segment.

是的，大衛，我要開始了，但我希望我們的零售總裁 Scott Hudson 補充一些評論。我認為業務——顯然，我們將業務分開了很多。該業務有不同的地域。 ERCOT有自己獨特的設計。其他市場顯然有一個不同的市場，由 TDU（電線公司）負責計費。從獲利狀況的角度來看，我們的業務在住宅領域佔據了很大的份額，但在商業和工業領域，我們的業務規模非常大，獲利能力也很強。

The business has performed better than we expected it to perform this year relative to plan. And next year is pretty flat to that. So I think it's actually more stable is how I would describe the retail business, not a large growth assumption or a moonshot required for us to be delivering in our 2024 guidance. And the team has done a really nice job adapting to a variety of weather conditions, extreme weather and ERCOT and actually milder than normal weather in most of the rest of the country. But I think the underlying trends are a function of the creative products and the marketing channels. I'd like Scott to comment on that. So you get a feel beyond just the numbers of how the team actually executes dynamically to meet customer needs.

相對於計劃，該業務今年的表現優於我們的預期。明年的情況相當平淡。因此，我認為我對零售業務的描述實際上更穩定，而不是我們在 2024 年指南中實現的大幅增長假設或登月計劃。該團隊在適應各種天氣條件、極端天氣和 ERCOT 方面做得非常好，實際上，該國大部分地區的天氣比正常天氣要溫和。但我認為潛在的趨勢是創意產品和行銷管道的函數。我希望斯科特對此發表評論。因此，您不僅可以感受到團隊實際上如何動態執行以滿足客戶需求的數字。

Yes. Thank you, Jim, and thanks for the question. We did see strong margins and growth across all of our customer segments and geographies in the quarter-over-quarter. On the residential side in ERCOT, which is a large concentration of what we do, Jim mentioned the summer campaigns that we had very successful across 6 brands we have in the markets across multiple different products, our seasonal discount product, which helps flatten the customer bill with the discount in the summer for the customer is very popular.

是的。謝謝你，吉姆，也謝謝你提出這個問題。我們確實看到了所有客戶群和地區的季度環比強勁的利潤率和成長。在ERCOT 的住宅方面，這是我們所做的工作的一個重點，Jim 提到，我們在市場上擁有6 個品牌，涵蓋多種不同產品，我們的季節性折扣產品，這有助於扁平化客戶，因此夏季行銷活動非常成功夏季帳單加上折扣對於顧客來說很受歡迎。

And then on the retention side, we have an advanced analytics team that actually identifies customers that we give customer credits to. We call them comfort credits, and that's also a way to retain customers in these very extreme summer periods. That's a program we've had in place for several years, but we continue to refine.

然後在保留方面，我們擁有一支先進的分析團隊，可以實際識別我們給予客戶積分的客戶。我們稱之為舒適積分，這也是在這個非常極端的夏季時期留住客戶的一種方式。這是我們已經實施多年的計劃，但我們仍在不斷改進。

On the C&I side, what we see is that really strong margin performance. When there's volatility in these markets and power costs are up and down, this is really an opportunity for us for really providers at scale that have reliable generation and sophisticated commercial capabilities. So we saw some nice margin expansion both in ERCOT and in the Midwest and Northeast market. So those are just a few examples to give you a flavor, but to Jim's point, we're always looking to optimize our customer counts, our margins, our risk capabilities, along with the customer experience. And it really is that optimization that allows the business to be consistent and stable.

在工商業方面，我們看到的是非常強勁的利潤率表現。當這些市場出現波動且電力成本上下波動時，對我們來說，對於擁有可靠發電和複雜商業能力的真正大規模供應商來說，這確實是一個機會。因此，我們在 ERCOT 以及中西部和東北市場都看到了一些不錯的利潤成長。這些只是讓您了解的幾個例子，但就吉姆的觀點而言，我們一直在尋求優化我們的客戶數量、我們的利潤、我們的風險能力以及客戶體驗。正是這種優化使業務保持一致和穩定。

And David, the thing I would conclude on Scott's remarks, which we're spot on with how we think about the business is the customer could be put under a lot of pressure with volatile pricing. With the hedging strategies, which we've described before are pretty conservative about the way in which we procure to handle extreme weather. Our goal is to insulate the customer as much as possible from those kinds of bill shocks. That helps franchise value in the long run. It helps the customers sort of get through the seasonal events. But it does take resources to be -- to hedge at that level. It takes capital, you have to post collateral at times. You have to be a little bit more conservative on how you think about some of your pricing structures. But I think it pays off in the long run. And that's why the business not only had a really strong financial quarter, they grew accounts in the quarter.

大衛，我根據史考特的言論得出的結論是，我們對業務的看法是正確的，即客戶可能會因價格波動而承受很大的壓力。我們先前描述的對沖策略對於我們應對極端天氣的方式相當保守。我們的目標是盡可能使客戶免受此類帳單衝擊。從長遠來看，這有助於特許經營價值。它可以幫助客戶度過季節性活動。但確實需要資源來對沖這一水平。這需要資金，有時你必須提供抵押品。您對某些定價結構的看法必須更加保守。但我認為從長遠來看這是有回報的。這就是為什麼該公司不僅擁有非常強勁的財務季度，而且在該季度還實現了客戶成長。

Growing accounts in the quarter as being one of the largest market share participants is not an easy thing to do. But if you're providing that stable value proposition to the customer, the customers do respond well. And I think that's where we shine better is when we've got this kind of volatility, that's when the model, I think, really differentiates itself.

作為最大的市場份額參與者之一，在本季度增加帳戶並不是一件容易的事。但如果您向客戶提供穩定的價值主張，客戶確實會做出很好的反應。我認為，當我們擁有這種波動性時，我們會表現得更好，我認為，這就是模型真正與眾不同的時候。

Yes. Excellent. Yes, I appreciate that color. And thanks for the clarification on the trajectory into 2024. And could I ask just, does the retail contribution as you look into 2025 and the indicative midpoint guidance there? Does it stay flat into that year off of '24?

是的。出色的。是的，我很欣賞這種顏色。感謝您對 2024 年發展軌蹟的澄清。我能否問一下，您展望 2025 年時零售業的貢獻以及那裡的指示性中點指引是否有貢獻？到 24 年後的那一年，它會保持平穩嗎？

David, we haven't put anything out specifically on retail, but we've given you a sense of where we see '25 on a combined entity. But yes, we see it staying fairly flat. And most of the delta that we'd expect to see, if any, in '25 would be more driven by where the generation segment is. We're highly hedged in '25, but we have to carry more open there. So you might see a little bit more variation there than we'd expect to see in retail.

大衛，我們還沒有專門針對零售業發布任何內容，但我們已經讓您了解了我們在合併實體中看到的 '25。但是，是的，我們看到它保持相當平穩。我們預計在 25 年看到的大部分增量（如果有的話）將更多地受到發電領域的推動。我們在 25 年進行了高度對沖，但我們必須在那裡持有更多的敞口。因此，您可能會看到比我們在零售業預期看到的更多的變化。

Got it. Understood. And just to push out even further, just any directional thoughts on 2026, how much might be hedged at this point and just directional trend off to 2025?

知道了。明白了。更進一步，關於 2026 年的任何方向性想法，此時可以對沖多少，以及到 2025 年的方向性趨勢？

Sure. Yes. If you look at the curves, David, 2026 is looking stronger than 2025. That particularly has moved in the ERCOT region from the last time we spoke. In fact, when we had our call in August, it was August 9, and August 10 was the all-time peak in ERCOT. So we were busy, and we talked about how we needed to make sure that we got through the summer. Most of the pricing volatility in ERCOT came in the back half of August. And I think the forward curve started to reflect that the sort of on paper level of reserve margin may not actually be what the actual reserve margins are under stress conditions. So we have seen the curves move up. As Kris noted, they are higher than where they were in May of '22, still backward dated, but they are higher. And I think that's a reflection of the supply-demand calculation that folks are revising for ERCOT.

當然。是的。 David，如果你看一下曲線，2026 年看起來會比 2025 年更強。自從我們上次演講以來，ERCOT 區域的變化尤其明顯。事實上，我們在 8 月接到電話時是 8 月 9 日，而 8 月 10 日是 ERCOT 的歷史高峰。所以我們很忙，我們討論瞭如何確保我們度過這個夏天。 ERCOT 的大部分定價波動發生在 8 月下旬。我認為遠期曲線開始反映出，準備金率的紙面水平實際上可能並不是壓力條件下的實際準備率。所以我們看到曲線往上移動。正如 Kris 指出的那樣，它們比 22 年 5 月的水平要高，儘管仍然落後，但它們已經更高了。我認為這反映了人們正在為 ERCOT 修改的供需計算。

We are still majority open out in the 2026 time period. We have not provided a hedge position, but our anticipation at the moment is, is that Energy Harbor also has largely remained open in 2026. That's why we were comfortable saying we expect it to be around that $900 million range. And then we see upside from where we sit today for the rest of the Vistra stand-alone for 2026, relative to 2025.

到 2026 年，我們仍處於開放狀態。我們尚未提供對沖頭寸，但我們目前的預期是，能源港在 2026 年也將基本保持開放狀態。這就是為什麼我們可以放心地說，我們預計其規模將在 9 億美元左右。然後，我們從今天的情況來看，相對於 2025 年，瑞致達 2026 年其餘的獨立業務都有上行空間。

The next question comes from Andrew -- I'm sorry, Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

下一個問題來自安德魯——對不起，海港公司的安吉·斯托羅辛斯基(Angie Storozynski)。

I just had a question about market power issues, if any, and how those could prevent you from any additional transactions. So you were clearly surprised by the issue that came up with Energy Harbor at the FERC level. And again, is there any lesson learned from it? Again, do you think that you have grown to the point where you might encounter those issues in other PJM zones?

我只是有一個關於市場力量問題（如果有的話）的問題，以及這些問題如何阻止您進行任何額外的交易。因此，您顯然對 FERC 層級能源港提出的問題感到驚訝。再說一遍，有什麼教訓嗎？再說一遍，您是否認為您已經發展到可能在其他 PJM 區域遇到這些問題的程度？

Angie, we -- I don't think we've really learned anything specifically from this other than deals get a lot of scrutiny. We actually have, in all of our filings and all of the screens we've done that we need to do in order to make our filings complete, we did not see and still don't believe that these assets are pivotal in that regard. So I still think we look at the situation in the exact same way as we did when we made the announcement. But we do want to move forward and get this deal done. So we made the modification that we made.

安吉，我們——我認為除了交易受到大量審查之外，我們並沒有真正從這件事中學到任何東西。實際上，在我們所有的文件和為了完成我們的文件而需要進行的所有篩選中，我們沒有看到也不相信這些資產在這方面至關重要。所以我仍然認為我們看待情況的方式與我們宣布這一消息時的方式完全相同。但我們確實希望繼續前進並完成這筆交易。所以我們做了我們所做的修改。

Even in ERCOT, our market share -- because the markets continue to grow, we're more like a 14%, 15% market share number, so there's even headroom for us to do something in ERCOT, and that's where we have the highest level of relative size compared to others in the market. So no, I think the field is still open, Angie. I think we'd love to obviously get this done and move forward, and we want to be constructive and work with the regulatory bodies to make sure that, that happens in a way they're comfortable. But no, I don't think there's anything to read through at this point. Of course, we haven't heard finally from FERC on this matter, but we feel very good about our position on this, and we think we have headroom to do additional transactions in all the markets.

即使在ERCOT 中，我們的市場佔有率——因為市場正在持續成長，我們的市佔率數字更像是14%、15%，所以我們甚至還有空間在ERCOT 中做一些事情，而這就是我們擁有最高的市場佔有率與市場上其他產品相比的相對規模水準。所以不，我認為這個領域仍然開放，安吉。我認為我們顯然很樂意完成這項工作並向前推進，我們希望具有建設性並與監管機構合作，以確保這一切以他們感到舒適的方式發生。但不，我認為目前沒有什麼可讀的。當然，我們還沒有收到 FERC 關於此事的最終消息，但我們對我們在這方面的立場感到非常滿意，並且我們認為我們有空間在所有市場上進行額外的交易。

Great. And then you mentioned that you guys are waiting for some clarifications around the IRA, especially as those relate to the behind the meter installations. So I'm just wondering if that's specifically referring to nuclear PTCs and how transactions with affiliates or non-affiliates will be counted towards the energy growth, whatever receipts or margin that is currently in the role. Again, a little bit more clarity around what you're waiting for us to see.

偉大的。然後你提到你們正在等待有關愛爾蘭共和軍的一些澄清，特別是那些與電錶後面的安裝有關的澄清。因此，我只是想知道這是否專門指核 PTC，以及如何將與附屬公司或非附屬公司的交易計入能源成長，無論目前該角色的收入或利潤如何。再次，讓我們更清楚地了解您等待我們看到的內容。

Yes. So we obviously await guidance from the IRS on a couple of matters. The whole hydrogen topic and whether nuclear -- existing nuclear is going to qualify as a clean energy source, whether it's behind the meter or what they call hydrogen by wire, where it's more contracted through a PPA type structure, we await clarification on that. We don't have growth built into our plans for that. We're not assuming an upside yet on our plans. But that's something, Angie, that we obviously await guidance on.

是的。因此，我們顯然正在等待美國國稅局就幾個問題提供指導。整個氫主題以及核能——現有的核能是否有資格成為清潔能源，無論是在儀表後面還是他們所說的通過 PPA 類型結構收縮的氫傳輸，我們等待對此的澄清。我們的計劃中沒有為此制定成長計劃。我們還沒有假設我們的計劃有好處。但這是我們顯然正在等待指導的事情，安吉。

I think the more immediate material guidance will be the nuclear PTC. And what is the revenue basis for determining whether an asset has earned some of the PTC because the realized revenue rate is below the floor. We expect to get that guidance some point in the spring, but we're not sure how soon it could come. Obviously, it goes into effect beginning of next year. Once again, we've not assumed any PTC value in our long-range plan. But the way we think about it is the curves are right at and slightly above where we see the PTC floor. So it's unclear that it would apply at this moment.

我認為更直接的材料指導將是核 PTC。決定某項資產是否因為已實現的收入率低於下限而獲得部分 PTC 的收入基礎為何。我們預計會在春季的某個時候得到該指導，但我們不確定它會多快到來。顯然，它將於明年初生效。再次強調，我們的長期計劃中並未假定任何 PTC 價值。但我們的想法是，曲線正好位於我們看到的 PTC 底板位置並略高於該位置。因此目前尚不清楚它是否適用。

Now there is indexing to that PTC. So if the curve stayed flat, you might inflate your way into earning some of the PTC. It is still unclear about how affiliate transactions would work. But I feel like there's been a commentary and some acknowledgment that some basis of spot, whether it's real-time or day-ahead prices that there needs to be some reflection of what the market value is of the power and not just how the hedge transactions either were done at the portfolio level or at the asset level. I think that's a cleaner way to think about it is to think about something in the real-time or day ahead market as a better benchmark for the value at the hub of the power. But again, we await that guidance.

現在該 PTC 已建立索引。因此，如果曲線保持平坦，您可能會透過通貨膨脹來賺取一些 PTC。目前尚不清楚關聯交易將如何運作。但我覺得有評論和一些承認，現貨的某些基礎，無論是實時價格還是日前價格，都需要反映權力的市場價值，而不僅僅是對沖交易的方式要么是在投資組合層面或資產層面完成的。我認為這是一種更乾淨的思考方式，即將實時或日前市場中的某些東西視為電力中心價值的更好基準。但我們再次等待這項指導。

It's not baked into the plan. And I think it provides some downside protection. We're not 100% sure how much yet. But since we still have the upside of where the curves could go for the nuclear assets, whether it's Texas or Pennsylvania, Ohio, we view it as a real opportunity that the IRA provides. We just don't have clarity on the size of that opportunity at this point.

它沒有納入計劃。我認為它提供了一些下行保護。我們還不能 100% 確定多少。但由於我們仍然有核資產曲線可能走向的上行空間，無論是德克薩斯州還是賓夕法尼亞州、俄亥俄州，我們認為這是愛爾蘭共和軍提供的一個真正的機會。目前我們還不清楚這個機會有多大。

Great. And if I could ask one last one. So there's some additional media scrutiny around the supply of nuclear fuel and the reliance on Russia here. I remember that you mentioned that Energy Harbor is well hedged for nuclear fuel. But given that you are doubling down on nuclear power, I'm just wondering if you have a way to manage the Russia risk either direct or indirect exposure to 10x especially the...

偉大的。如果我可以問最後一個問題的話。因此，媒體對核燃料的供應和對俄羅斯的依賴進行了一些額外的審查。我記得你提到能源港對核燃料的對沖很好。但鑑於你們正在加倍投入核電，我只是想知道你們是否有辦法管理俄羅斯直接或間接暴露於 10 倍的風險，尤其是…

Yes, Angie, good question. It is something that the whole industry is paying attention to because it can affect prices for domestic and more global sources beyond Russia as a source. So it's got implications whether you're sourcing directly from Russia or not. We have increased some of our nuclear fuel purchases. We've done that as Vistra, and we have done that both for our own needs, but also in anticipation of closing this transaction. So I feel very good about our financial and our physical supply with or without any Russian exposure over the next several years. And we feel that we're in good shape from a Vistra stand-alone actually for the next 4 to 5 years.

是的，安吉，好問題。這是整個行業都在關注的事情，因為它會影響國內和俄羅斯以外的全球資源的價格。因此，無論您是否直接從俄羅斯採購，都會產生影響。我們增加了一些核燃料的採購。我們身為瑞致達已經這樣做了，我們這樣做既是為了我們自己的需要，也是為了完成這項交易。因此，我對未來幾年我們的財務和實物供應感到非常滿意，無論是否有任何俄羅斯風險。我們認為，在未來 4 到 5 年裡，我們實際上從 Vistra 獨立公司來看處於良好狀態。

But from a combined basis, since we don't have all the detail beyond the next couple of years at this point from Energy Harbor, I think our fleet-wide purchases will actually help bridge anything we'll see on a combined basis, but we have our -- we started working this issue. We started working even before we made an announcement about Energy Harbor because obviously this conflict dates back in time. But I think we have done a very nice job. The team has done a nice job not only hedging for the physical part, but financially hedging, curves are up for nuclear fuel. There's no doubt.

但從綜合來看，由於我們目前還沒有從能源港獲得未來幾年的所有細節，我認為我們的整個機隊採購實際上將有助於彌合我們在綜合基礎上看到的任何事情，但是我們已經開始解決這個問題。我們甚至在宣布有關能源港的消息之前就開始工作了，因為顯然這場衝突可以追溯到很久以前。但我認為我們做得非常好。該團隊不僅在物理部分的對沖方面做得很好，而且在財務上的對沖方面也做得很好，核燃料的曲線正在上升。毫無疑問。

You'll see nuclear fuel quotes in the $9 to $10 a megawatt hour kind of raise that's kind of an all-in value. We're still -- and I mentioned we're -- historically, we were closer to $5, trending up to $6 for Vistra stand-alone through 2026. That's still where we are. We don't have all the details on the Energy Harbor cost per -- I know they reset some of theirs early on as they did their restructuring, but we could have some exposure towards the back end of a 5-year planning horizon on price just because the curves have moved up, but there's also a discussion about domestic sources and incentivizing additional supply non-Russian that may come into play towards the back end of our planning horizon. But I think we've substantially derisked physically and financially there, Angie.

你會看到核燃料報價每兆瓦時上漲 9 至 10 美元，這是一個總價值。我提到過，從歷史上看，我們仍然接近 5 美元，到 2026 年，瑞致達的獨立股價將上升至 6 美元。這仍然是我們所處的位置。我們沒有關於能源港成本的所有細節——我知道他們在進行重組時很早就重置了一些成本，但我們可以對 5 年規劃期限的後期價格有一些了解只是因為曲線已經上升，但也有關於國內來源和激勵額外的非俄羅斯供應的討論，這可能會在我們的規劃範圍的後端發揮作用。但我認為我們已經在身體和經濟上大大降低了風險，安吉。

The final question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Jim, just a more pointed question on the capital allocation, and I appreciate you're going to go to the Board, and we'll have a plan here in the first half of next year. But given the move in the stock, and I asked you this on the last call as well, do you kind of still view that the security is undervalued here as we think about buybacks prospectively beyond 2024?

吉姆，我想問一個關於資本分配的更尖銳的問題，我很高興你能去董事會，我們將在明年上半年制定一個計劃。但考慮到股票的走勢，我在上次電話會議上也問過您這個問題，當我們考慮 2024 年之後的回購時，您是否仍然認為該證券被低估了？

Yes, it's always difficult for management teams to predict where things will go. But yes, if you look at the multiples and our now raised EBITDA guidance levels and our expected free cash flow generation, I think the multiples are just staying where they've been, and we're just reflecting a much stronger business profile. I think you can obviously make your case as to what's the right multiple to put on the business. I think there's been a view that the free cash flow yields need to be 20-plus percent in order to compensate for the risk of being in the business.

是的，管理團隊總是很難預測事情會走向何方。但是，是的，如果你看看市盈率以及我們現在提高的 EBITDA 指導水平和我們預期的自由現金流生成，我認為市盈率只是保持在原來的水平，而且我們只是反映了更強勁的業務狀況。我認為你顯然可以就該業務的正確本益比提出自己的觀點。我認為有一種觀點認為，自由現金流收益率需要達到 20% 以上才能彌補該業務的風險。

I think our integrated model has shown a real stability to the business model, and we've seen various weather conditions, pricing conditions play out over the course of this year. And I think our team has managed through that exceedingly well, and we've raised the out year. So I know Kris put in more of an exclamation point on this on the last call, and I'd love to be interested to see if his view has changed, but I'm pretty sure it hasn't. But I'd like to let him close on this because I want to make sure you guys know we're sticking with these 4 core principles.

我認為我們的綜合模式已經顯示出商業模式的真正穩定性，而且我們已經看到今年各種天氣條件、定價條件的表現。我認為我們的團隊在這方面做得非常好，我們已經提高了全年的表現。所以我知道克里斯在上次通話中對此添加了更多的感嘆號，我很想知道他的觀點是否改變了，但我很確定它沒有改變。但我想讓他結束這個主題，因為我想確保你們知道我們堅持這 4 項核心原則。

Yes. Durgesh, I'll just point out, obviously, as you can see by the pace of our buybacks, we've actually picked up the pace in the third and fourth quarter. And as Jim mentioned, as we look forward, and we still have to get with the Board and talk about a comprehensive plan. But as Jim mentioned, our intention would be to maintain the pace that we set this year and potentially look to see whether it should stay that same pace going forward or whether it should be increased. So we still feel good about the prices at which we're buying our stock today.

是的。杜爾格甚，我只想指出，顯然，正如你從我們的回購速度中看到的那樣，我們實際上在第三和第四季加快了步伐。正如吉姆所提到的，當我們展望未來時，我們仍然需要與董事會合作並討論一個全面的計劃。但正如吉姆所提到的，我們的目的是保持今年設定的速度，並可能考慮未來是否應該保持相同的速度，或者是否應該增加。因此，我們仍然對今天購買股票的價格感到滿意。

Got it. That's perfectly clear, guys. And then just can I go back to the 16%, I think that was the number 1, 6 of customer count growth in the retail segment. Can you just provide a little bit more color? Is that predominantly ERCOT? And then just for us to kind of digest that, what's like a 5-year average so we can see how strong this quarter was really?

知道了。夥計們，這很清楚。然後我可以回到 16%，我認為這是零售領域客戶數量成長的第一、第六位。你能提供更多一點的顏色嗎？主要是 ERCOT 嗎？然後讓我們消化一下，五年平均值是多少，以便我們可以看到本季的強勁程度？

Yes, I can take that. This is Scott Hudson. The number that was referenced is in the appendix slide in the materials, but it's volumetric growth in our C&I market business. And we've seen a lot of success in that business, both in ERCOT and in the Midwest, Northeast markets through these times of volatility. I think what you find is that larger sophisticated customers want to work with players of scale because we can structure a lot of complex products, whether those be indexed, fixed ability to pass through new charges in the ERCOT markets, we see a shift of customers to the larger players in this particular environment.

是的，我可以接受。這是斯科特·哈德森。引用的數字位於材料的附錄幻燈片中，但它是我們的 C&I 市場業務的體積增長。我們在該業務中看到了很多成功，無論是在 ERCOT 還是在中西部、東北市場，經歷了這些波動時期。我認為你會發現，規模較大的成熟客戶希望與規模較大的參與者合作，因為我們可以建立許多複雜的產品，無論這些產品是否被索引，是否有能力在ERCOT 市場上傳遞新費用，我們看到客戶的轉變在此特定環境中的較大參與者。

Yes, Durgesh. I think Scott (inaudible) we had residential growth, but the 16% was a business -- is a volumetric growth. And so -- but both businesses grew, and they grew their business not only in Texas but outside of Texas. So it was really strong performance for the business to fundamentally grow in sort of a very dynamic power market.

是的，杜爾吉什。我認為斯科特（聽不清楚）我們有住宅成長，但 16% 是商業成長——是體積成長。就這樣——但這兩家企業都在成長，而且他們的業務不僅在德克薩斯州而且在德克薩斯州之外都在成長。因此，在一個非常活躍的電力市場中，該業務能夠從根本上成長，這確實是強勁的業績。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the call back to Jim Burke for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給吉姆·伯克（Jim Burke），讓其致閉幕詞。

Yes. I want to close by thanking the men and women of Vistra for their hard work and for delivering an exceptional quarter for our customers and the communities we serve. We appreciate your interest in Vistra. And as you saw in our presentation, we have a lot to still accomplish and layouts, and we look forward to laying that out for you and speaking to you again soon. Hopefully, after we have closed here on the Energy Harbor acquisition, and we wish you all a great morning. Thank you.

是的。最後，我要感謝瑞致達全體員工的辛勤工作，感謝他們為我們的客戶和我們服務的社區帶來了一個出色的季度。我們感謝您對瑞致達的興趣。正如您在我們的演示中看到的那樣，我們還有很多工作要做和佈局，我們期待為您展示這些內容並很快再次與您交談。希望在我們結束能源港收購後，祝大家有個美好的早晨。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。