瑞致達公佈了 2024 年第三季強勁的營運和財務業績,提高了 2024 年指引,並引入了 2025 年指引。
該公司專注於資本配置、成長項目和維持強勁的資產負債表。未來收益可能會受到託管交易和傳輸容量考慮的影響。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Vistra's third quarter 2024 earnings call.
早安,歡迎參加瑞致達 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.
(操作員說明)請注意此事件正在被記錄。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, Vice President, Investor Relations.
我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Micek。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Eric Micek - Vice President, Investor Relations
Eric Micek - Vice President, Investor Relations
Good morning and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our third quarter 2024 results.
早安,感謝您參加瑞致達的投資者網路廣播,討論我們的 2024 年第三季業績。
Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.
我們今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。在那裡,您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。
Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Moldovan Kris, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
今天的電話會議由瑞致達總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke) 主持。以及瑞致達執行副總裁兼財務長 Moldovan Kris。
They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.
瑞致達其他高階主管將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。
Earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.
今天電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計原則財務指標的引用。
Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix in the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.
瑞致達網站投資者關係部分的收益報告和投資者簡報的附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。
Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.
此外,今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。
Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied.
此類前瞻性陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。
We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.
我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。
I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explains the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.
我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報第2 張幻燈片中包含的安全港聲明,其中解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非公認會計準則的使用財務措施。
I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.
我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke)。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Eric.
謝謝你,埃里克。
Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter 2024 operational and financial results.
早安,感謝您加入我們討論我們 2024 年第三季的營運和財務表現。
It has been an active year on a number of fronts, and I'm very proud of what the Vistra team has been able to deliver so far in 2024 while setting the stage for long-term value creation.
今年在許多方面都是活躍的一年,我對瑞致達團隊在 2024 年迄今所取得的成就感到非常自豪,同時為長期價值創造奠定了基礎。
Turning to slide 5.
轉到投影片 5。
I would like to recognize the Vistra team for another quarter of hard work and strong operational performance.
我要對瑞致達團隊在另一個季度的辛勤工作和強勁的營運績效表示認可。
Through their efforts, we achieved a solid quarterly financial result of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $1.444 billion despite a continuation of the milder Texas weather we have experienced most of the year.
儘管德州今年大部分時間天氣持續溫和,但透過他們的努力,我們實現了持續營運調整後 EBITDA 14.44 億美元的穩健季度財務表現。
The consistent execution from our team across generation, commercial and retail delivered reliable power and customer solutions that reflect the strength of our integrated business model.
我們的團隊在各代、商業和零售領域的一致執行提供了可靠的電力和客戶解決方案,反映了我們綜合業務模式的實力。
As you may remember from our second quarter results call, we indicated our 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA was trending toward the upper end of the guidance range.
您可能還記得,我們在第二季業績電話會議上表示,我們的 2024 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 正趨向指導範圍的上限。
I am pleased to report that with the results announced today and our outlook for the fourth quarter we are raising and narrowing our guidance range for 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA to $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion with a midpoint above the upper end of our previous range.
我很高興地向大家報告,根據今天公佈的業績和對第四季度的展望,我們正在提高和縮小2024 年持續營運調整後EBITDA 的指導範圍,至50 億美元至52 億美元,其中中點高於我們之前範圍的上限。
We are also raising and narrowing the guidance range for ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth to $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion.
我們也將成長前持續經營調整自由現金流的指導範圍提高並縮小至 26.5 億美元至 28.5 億美元。
As we noted on our previous results call, our guidance excludes any potential benefit related to the nuclear production tax credit, or PTC, as we await clarity from treasury around the interpretation of gross receipts.
正如我們在先前的業績電話會議中指出的那樣,我們的指導排除了與核生產稅收抵免(PTC)相關的任何潛在利益,因為我們正在等待財政部對總收入的解釋做出澄清。
However, based on year-to-date settled prices and the forward curve for the balance of the year, we believe the impact of the nuclear PTC to our 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA could be approximately $500 million.
然而,根據今年迄今為止的結算價格和今年剩餘時間的遠期曲線,我們認為核 PTC 對我們 2024 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的影響可能約為 5 億美元。
Moving to our longer-term outlook.
轉向我們的長期展望。
We are introducing guidance ranges for 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.0 billion to $3.6 billion.
我們正在引入 2025 年持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 指引範圍為 55 億美元至 61 億美元,持續營運調整後的自由現金流在成長前為 30 億美元至 36 億美元。
Notably, our ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint of $5.8 billion is higher than the $5.7 billion upper end of our previously communicated range for 2025.
值得注意的是,我們持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 指引中點為 58 億美元,高於我們先前公佈的 2025 年範圍上限 57 億美元。
While our ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is not currently expected to benefit from the nuclear PTC at any significant amount due to the current level of forward price curves we do expect the availability of the nuclear PTC to provide downside protection in the event prices settle lower.
雖然由於目前的遠期價格曲線水平,我們目前預計 2025 年持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 指引不會從核 PTC 中獲得任何重大收益,但我們確實預計,如果價格穩定,核 PTC 的可用性將提供下行保護降低。
For calendar year 2026, although our current hedge percentage has increased to approximately 64% of expected generation, a meaningful amount of gross margin variability remains.
到 2026 日曆年,儘管我們目前的對沖百分比已增加至預期發電量的約 64%,但仍存在相當大的毛利率波動。
Further, the delay in the 2026, 2027 PJM capacity auction, including the potential modification of the associated auction parameters create some additional uncertainty.
此外,2026 年和 2027 年 PJM 容量拍賣的延遲,包括相關拍賣參數的潛在修改,造成了一些額外的不確定性。
For these reasons, we are maintaining our outlook for our 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6 billion with line of sight to potentially be meaningfully higher.
基於這些原因,我們維持對 2026 年持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 中位數機會超過 60 億美元的展望,並且可能會大幅提高。
Finally, the third quarter marked an active period of capital allocation and capital returns.
最後,第三季是資本配置和資本回報的活躍期。
On September 16, we announced the acquisition of the Vistra Vision 15% minority interest from our minority investors.
9月16日,我們宣布從少數投資者手中收購Vistra Vision 15%少數股權。
We believe this acquisition will be highly accretive to our shareholders with an implied transaction multiple of less than 8 times enterprise value to EBITDA, 100% ownership upon closing at year-end and financial flexibility allowed through an extended payment schedule.
我們相信,此次收購將為我們的股東帶來巨大的增值,其隱含交易倍數低於 EBITDA 企業價值的 8 倍,年底交割時擁有 100% 的所有權,並且透過延長付款計劃實現財務靈活性。
In addition, the significant share price weakness we experienced in late August and early September resulted in an uptick in repurchases we were able to execute in the quarter.
此外,我們在 8 月底和 9 月初經歷的股價大幅疲軟導致我們在本季能夠執行的回購增加。
In all, we repurchased approximately $400 million of shares in the open market in the third quarter at an average purchase price of approximately $83 per share.
總之,我們第三季在公開市場回購了約 4 億美元的股票,平均購買價格約為每股 83 美元。
Combined with the Vistra Vision 15% minority interest acquisition, which we view as similar to a forward share repurchase program with a deferred payment schedule, we were able to allocate a combined approximately $3.5 billion to the repurchase of our equity at an average indicative purchase price between $80 and $85 per share, roughly a 30% discount to our recent share price.
結合 Vistra Vision 15% 少數股權收購(我們認為該收購類似於具有延期付款計劃的遠期股票回購計劃),我們能夠以平均指示性購買價格總共分配約 35 億美元用於回購我們的股權每股80 美元到85 美元之間,比我們最近的股價大約有30% 的折扣。
Turning to slide 6.
轉到投影片 6。
Our four key strategic priorities remain integral to our strong business performance.
我們的四個關鍵策略重點仍然是我們強勁業務績效的組成部分。
As we have previously stated, we believe our integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program provide our stakeholders increased visibility into our future financial performance.
正如我們之前所說,我們相信我們的綜合業務模式和全面的對沖計劃可以讓我們的利害關係人更了解我們未來的財務表現。
From an operational perspective, our team continues to deliver.
從營運角度來看,我們的團隊持續交付。
Our generation team achieved overall commercial availability of approximately 96% for our gas and coal fleet.
我們的發電團隊為我們的天然氣和煤炭機組實現了約 96% 的整體商業可用性。
Our nuclear fleet also had an outstanding quarter with capacity factors averaging approximately 98% for the period as we continue to make great progress on our integration efforts.
隨著我們繼續在整合工作中取得巨大進展,我們的核電機組也有一個出色的季度,容量係數平均約為 98%。
On the retail side, the team continues to outperform through both strong customer count performance in the Texas and Midwest, Northeast markets as well as disciplined margin management.
在零售方面,該團隊透過德克薩斯州和中西部、東北市場強勁的客戶數量表現以及嚴格的利潤管理繼續表現出色。
Finally, we are seeing persistent growth in our large business market segment through longer-term customer relationships as a result of providing solutions to meet customers' goals, including sustainability objectives and budget certainty.
最後,透過提供滿足客戶目標(包括永續性目標和預算確定性)的解決方案,我們看到透過長期客戶關係,我們的大型業務細分市場持續成長。
Switching to capital allocation, we remain disciplined in our approach by targeting a significant return of capital and executing on attractive growth projects like the Energy Harbor acquisition, while also maintaining a strong balance sheet.
轉向資本配置,我們仍然堅持嚴格的方法,以顯著的資本回報為目標,執行能源港收購等有吸引力的成長項目,同時保持強勁的資產負債表。
As part of this approach, we continue to execute the capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021.
作為此方法的一部分,我們繼續執行 2021 年第四季實施的資本回報計畫。
Since that time, we have returned approximately $5.4 billion to our investors through open market share repurchases and common stock dividends.
自那時起,我們透過公開市場股票回購和普通股股息向投資者返還了約 54 億美元。
Kris will cover capital allocation in more detail later in the presentation.
克里斯將在稍後的演講中更詳細地介紹資本配置。
But you will see that we expect at least an additional $1.5 billion of capital available to allocate through year-end 2026.
但您會發現,我們預計到 2026 年底至少還會有 15 億美元的額外資本可用於分配。
This number is net of our current capital responsibilities including the recently announced Vistra Vision 15% minority interest purchase and the recent Board authorization for an additional $1 billion of share repurchases expected to be executed by year-end 2026.
這一數字不包括我們目前的資本責任,包括最近宣布的 Vistra Vision 15% 少數股權購買以及最近董事會授權預計在 2026 年底前執行的額外 10 億美元股票回購。
Speaking of the balance sheet, our financial position remains strong with net debt at the end of the third quarter at approximately 2.7 times ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA.
說到資產負債表,我們的財務狀況依然強勁,第三季末的淨債務約為持續營運調整後 EBITDA 的 2.7 倍。
Although our net leverage is expected to move slightly above 3 times with the closing of the Vistra Vision 15% minority interest purchase, we expect it to fall back below 3 times in 2025.
儘管隨著 Vistra Vision 15% 少數股權收購的完成,我們的淨槓桿率預計將略高於 3 倍,但我們預計 2025 年將回落至 3 倍以下。
Moving to energy transition.
轉向能源轉型。
As you know, our approach continues to responsibly balance reliability, affordability and sustainability while ensuring disciplined returns for our shareholders.
如您所知,我們的方法繼續負責任地平衡可靠性、負擔能力和可持續性,同時確保為股東帶來嚴格的回報。
The Vistra Vision 15% minority interest purchase is a great example of this strategy as we view the transaction as an attractive investment in our carbon-free assets and retail franchise.
Vistra Vision 15%少數股權的購買是這項策略的一個很好的例子,因為我們認為該交易是對我們的無碳資產和零售特許經營權的一項有吸引力的投資。
In addition to repurchasing the minority interest in our best-in-class retail business, through this acquisition, we will increase our ownership of nuclear generation by approximately 970 megawatts and across our four sites at an average price of approximately $2,100 per kilowatt.
除了回購我們一流的零售業務的少數股權外,透過此次收購,我們還將在四個地點以每千瓦約 2,100 美元的平均價格增加約 970 兆瓦的核電所有權。
We believe this compares very favorably to per unit cost for other nuclear generation alternatives such as plant uprates, new build, or additional M&A.
我們認為,這與其他核電替代方案(例如工廠升級、新建或額外併購)的單位成本相比非常有利。
Finally, the acquisition will result in an approximately 200-megawatt increase in our solar and storage capacity assets, and we look forward to continued growth in this business through the disciplined execution of our existing project pipeline.
最後,此次收購將使我們的太陽能和儲存容量資產增加約 200 兆瓦,我們期待透過嚴格執行現有專案管道,使該業務持續成長。
As highlighted on slide 7, in this year alone, we have seen numerous announcements of major manufacturing and data center additions by companies spanning across industries.
正如幻燈片 7 所強調的那樣,僅在今年,我們就看到跨行業的公司宣布了許多主要製造和資料中心的新增項目。
These announcements have spurred heightened awareness and projections of power demand growth.
這些公告提高了人們對電力需求成長的認識和預測。
Some grid operators have already raised their expectations for demand growth through midyear updates while numerous industry observers have published forecasts reflecting an acceleration in power demand across the country.
一些電網營運商已經透過年中更新提高了對需求成長的預期,而許多產業觀察家也發布了反映全國電力需求加速成長的預測。
We also discussed this growth dynamic on our first and second quarter calls, specifically highlighting many of the drivers of power demand growth, including the build-out of large chip manufacturing facilities, partially due to the CHIPS Act, the electrification of oil and gas load in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the reshoring of industrial activity and, of course, the build-out of data centers.
我們也在第一季和第二季的電話會議上討論了這種成長動態,特別強調了電力需求成長的許多驅動因素,包括大型晶片製造設施的建設,部分原因是《晶片法案》、石油和天然氣負載的電氣化在西德州的二疊紀盆地,工業活動回流,當然還有資料中心的擴建。
As shown in the bar chart on the left, actual weather adjusted load growth for 2024 in PJM and ERCOT not only exceeded historical rates but is trending towards long-term forecasted levels.
如左側長條圖所示,PJM 和 ERCOT 2024 年經天氣調整後的實際負載增長不僅超過了歷史水平,而且正趨向於長期預測水平。
We believe the level of growth across both markets confirms our view that load growth is already occurring, and we expect it to continue.
我們相信,兩個市場的成長水準證實了我們的觀點,即負載成長已經發生,我們預期這種成長將持續下去。
While there has been a lot of focus on FERC's rejection of the amended Talen interconnection service agreement, or ISA, we believe there will be multiple paths to resolve any issues as it relates to that project and other similar projects.
雖然人們對 FERC 拒絕修訂後的 Talen 互連服務協議 (ISA) 的關注備受關注,但我們相信,將有多種途徑來解決與該專案和其他類似專案相關的任何問題。
FERC's ruling was narrowly based on the commission's view that the ISA failed to meet previous FERC precedent, leaving the door open for a refiling of a streamlined ISA.
FERC 的裁決主要基於該委員會的觀點,即 ISA 未能滿足 FERC 之前的先例,為重新提交簡化的 ISA 留下了大門。
Nothing about FERC's ruling prevents us or other generators from contracting with customers who are seeking to co-locate for their needs.
FERC 的裁決並沒有阻止我們或其他發電商與尋求共處辦公以滿足其需求的客戶簽訂合約。
We will need to address open issues and find the path to FERC approval of interconnection service agreements, which we believe is doable.
我們需要解決懸而未決的問題,並找到 FERC 批准互連服務協議的途徑,我們認為這是可行的。
As we've stated before, there will be many large load opportunities that will have a variety of configurations, whether located next to a generation facility or in a more traditional front-of-the-meter configuration.
正如我們之前所說,將會有許多具有各種配置的大型負載機會,無論是位於發電設施旁邊還是更傳統的電錶前端配置。
We don't believe there will be a one-size-fits-all approach to this, and there shouldn't be as customer needs will vary.
我們認為不會有一種一刀切的方法來解決這個問題,也不應該存在,因為客戶的需求會有所不同。
This transmission is to meet these needs and that of our broader customer base just as we do today.
正如我們今天所做的那樣,這種傳輸就是為了滿足這些需求以及我們更廣泛的客戶群的需求。
I'm sure we will discuss this more in the Q&A, but I will turn it over to Kris to provide a detailed review of our third quarter results, our outlook and capital allocation.
我相信我們會在問答中更多地討論這個問題,但我會將其交給克里斯,以詳細審查我們的第三季度業績、前景和資本配置。
Kris?
克里斯?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Jim.
謝謝你,吉姆。
Turning to slide 9.
轉到投影片 9。
While the third quarter did not benefit from the same weather opportunities as last year, which we estimate added approximately $300 million to our earnings in the third quarter of 2023, Vistra was able to deliver solid results due to excellent operating performance and execution by our generation, retail and commercial teams.
儘管第三季度沒有像去年那樣受益於同樣的天氣機會(我們估計這將為我們2023 年第三季度的收入增加約3 億美元),但由於我們這一代人的出色運營表現和執行力,瑞致達能夠取得穩健的業績、零售和商業團隊。
Despite lower cleared wholesale prices compared to last year, our flexible generation fleet continued to perform extremely well and maximize available opportunities.
儘管與去年相比,批發價格較低,但我們靈活的發電機組繼續表現出色,並最大限度地利用了可用機會。
Turning to retail.
轉向零售。
As expected, third quarter results reflected higher power costs compared to 2023.
正如預期的那樣,第三季的業績反映了與 2023 年相比更高的電力成本。
However, year-to-date results are meaningfully higher compared to 2023 as the team continues to deliver strong customer count and margin results.
然而,由於團隊繼續提供強勁的客戶數量和利潤率結果,今年迄今的業績明顯高於 2023 年。
Finally, our third quarter 2024 results for both generation and retail benefited from the inclusion of Energy Harbor, which we estimate to be approximately $165 million for generation and approximately $35 million for retail.
最後,我們的 2024 年第三季發電和零售業績都受惠於能源港的納入,我們估計發電量約為 1.65 億美元,零售約 3,500 萬美元。
Moving to slide 10.
轉到投影片 10。
As Jim noted, we are raising and narrowing our 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $5 billion to $5.2 billion.
正如 Jim 指出的那樣,我們正在將 2024 年持續營運調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍提高並縮小至 50 億至 52 億美元。
We are also raising and narrowing our 2024 ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance range to $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion.
我們還將成長指導範圍前的 2024 年持續營運調整後自由現金流提高並縮小至 26.5 億美元至 28.5 億美元。
Although our team is executing at a high level across the business in 2024, this latest increase in our guidance ranges is primarily related to the performance of our retail business.
儘管我們的團隊在 2024 年的整個業務中表現出色,但我們指導範圍的最新成長主要與我們零售業務的業績有關。
Moving to 2025.
邁向 2025 年。
The improvement in our outlook is attributable to increased expectations for both our generation and retail businesses.
我們前景的改善歸因於對我們的發電和零售業務的期望增加。
Specifically as it relates to retail, we have previously communicated that we expected this business to contribute adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion on an annual basis.
具體而言,由於與零售相關,我們之前曾表示,我們預計該業務每年將貢獻調整後的 EBITDA 在 10 億至 12 億美元之間。
Due to several factors, including the addition of Energy Harbor, and sustained growth in residential demand in Texas and large business market demand across the country, we now expect the annual adjusted EBITDA contribution from this business over the next several years to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.
由於能源港的增加、德克薩斯州住宅需求和全國大型企業市場需求的持續增長等多種因素,我們現在預計該業務未來幾年調整後的年度調整後 EBITDA 貢獻將在以下範圍內13億至14億美元。
However, for 2024, we do project our retail results to come in above that range due to a few tailwinds that are onetime in nature.
然而,到 2024 年,由於一些一次性的有利因素,我們確實預計我們的零售業績將高於該範圍。
Switching to ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth, the midpoint of our guidance range implies a conversion ratio of approximately 58%, comfortably in our previously indicated long-term target range of approximately 55% to 60%.
轉向成長前的持續經營調整自由現金流,我們指導範圍的中點意味著轉換率約為 58%,完全處於我們之前指出的約 55% 至 60% 的長期目標範圍內。
Of course, our guidance and long-term outlook remains supported by our comprehensive hedging program, our commercial team continues to be opportunistic in taking advantage of recent power market volatility, increasing our wholesale hedge balances to approximately 96% for calendar year 2025 and approximately 64% for calendar year 2026.
當然,我們的指導和長期前景仍然受到我們全面的對沖計劃的支持,我們的商業團隊繼續抓住機會,利用近期電力市場的波動,將我們的批發對沖餘額增加到2025 年的約96%,並將2025 年的批發對沖餘額增加到約64%。
Turning to capital allocation on slide 11.
轉向投影片 11 上的資本配置。
Our share repurchase program has generated significant value for our shareholders.
我們的股票回購計劃為我們的股東創造了巨大的價值。
Since beginning the program in November 2021, we have reduced our shares outstanding by approximately 30%, repurchasing approximately 158 million shares at an average price per share below $29.
自 2021 年 11 月開始該計畫以來,我們已將流通股減少了約 30%,以低於 29 美元的平均價格回購了約 1.58 億股股票。
Notably, this reduction in our share count has led to an approximately 46% increase in our dividend per share since Q4 2021.
值得注意的是,自 2021 年第四季以來,我們股份數量的減少導致每股股息增加了約 46%。
Moving to the balance sheet.
轉向資產負債表。
As of the end of the third quarter, our net leverage was comfortably below our long-term target of 3 times ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA.
截至第三季末,我們的淨槓桿率明顯低於持續營運調整後 EBITDA 3 倍的長期目標。
Although we expect that ratio to move slightly above 3 times when we close the acquisition of the 15% minority interest, we expect to delever quickly and be comfortably below 3 times by year-end 2025.
儘管我們預計當我們完成對 15% 少數股權的收購時,該比率將略高於 3 倍,但我們預計將迅速去槓桿化,並在 2025 年底前輕鬆低於 3 倍。
Importantly, our business remains well capitalized, and we continue to manage the balance sheet in a conservative way, as evidenced by the recent upgrade of our corporate credit rating to BB+ by Standard and Poor's.
重要的是,我們的業務資本充足,我們繼續以保守的方式管理資產負債表,標準普爾最近將我們的企業信用評級上調至 BB+ 就證明了這一點。
Finally, we will continue to be opportunistic, yet disciplined in the deployment of capital towards growth.
最後,我們將繼續保持機會主義,但在資本配置以促進成長時保持紀律。
To that end, we expect to spend approximately $700 million in 2024 and 2025 as we execute on our development project pipeline, including the recently announced solar projects for Amazon and Microsoft.
為此,我們預計在 2024 年和 2025 年執行我們的開發專案管道時將花費約 7 億美元,包括最近宣布的亞馬遜和微軟太陽能專案。
Of course, we will continue to pursue opportunities to fund those expenditures with third-party capital, including nonrecourse loans.
當然,我們將繼續尋找機會利用第三方資本(包括無追索權貸款)來為這些支出提供資金。
Finishing on slide 12.
幻燈片 12 即將完成。
Based on our guidance for 2025 and our current expected 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of at least $6 billion as well as our expectation that we will continue to achieve our targeted long-term ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth conversion rate, we project to generate a meaningful amount of capital through year-end 2026.
根據我們對2025 年的指導和我們目前預期的2026 年持續營運調整後EBITDA 中點機會至少60 億美元,以及我們對我們將繼續實現長期持續營運調整後成長轉換率之前的自由現金流目標的預期,我們到 2026 年底,該項目將產生大量資本。
We also expect our net leverage, excluding our nonrecourse financings to reduce materially as our earnings power improves, providing additional capital flexibility.
我們也預計,隨著我們獲利能力的提高,我們的淨槓桿率(不包括無追索權融資)將大幅減少,從而提供額外的資本彈性。
As you can see, our current capital allocation plan through year-end 2026 continues to focus on shareholder return with over $6.5 billion allocated to the Vistra Vision 15% minority interest purchase, common and preferred dividends and expected open market share repurchases comprised of the approximately $2.2 billion remaining under the existing authorization through 2026, including the additional $1 billion share repurchase authorization announced today.
正如您所看到的,我們目前在2026 年底的資本分配計劃繼續專注於股東回報,超過65 億美元分配給Vistra Vision 15% 少數股權購買、普通股和優先股股息以及預期的公開市場股票回購,其中包括約到 2026 年,現有授權剩餘 22 億美元,其中包括今天宣布的額外 10 億美元股票回購授權。
However, despite the significant amount of capital already earmarked for shareholders, we still expect to have approximately $1.5 billion of incremental capital available for allocation through the end of 2026.
然而,儘管已經為股東指定了大量資本,但我們預計到 2026 年底仍有約 15 億美元的增量資本可用於分配。
Because this amount is based on $6 billion of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA, we see the potential for upside to this amount.
由於這一金額是基於 60 億美元的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 計算的,因此我們看到了這一金額的上升潛力。
As highlighted on the previous slide, over the last three years, we have been significant buyers of our common stock, including jump-starting the repurchase by issuing preferred equity.
正如上一張投影片所強調的,在過去三年中,我們一直是普通股的重要買家,包括透過發行優先股啟動回購。
However, it is important to remember that the decision to repurchase our stock was only one aspect of our capital allocation framework, which ought to balance capital return, maintaining a strong and resilient balance sheet, and executing on opportunistic growth.
然而,重要的是要記住,回購股票的決定只是我們資本配置框架的一個方面,該框架應該平衡資本回報,保持強勁而有彈性的資產負債表,並執行機會主義成長。
We expect this framework to continue to guide our capital allocation decisions, not only through year-end 2026, but also over the longer term.
我們預計該框架將繼續指導我們的資本配置決策,不僅到 2026 年底,而且從長遠來看。
Importantly, our return thresholds for both organic and inorganic growth have not changed, and we remain disciplined in choosing the opportunities we pursue.
重要的是,我們有機和無機成長的回報門檻都沒有改變,我們在選擇我們所追求的機會時仍然遵守紀律。
I do think it is also important to note that we still see our shares trading at an elevated free cash flow yield, especially when compared to the average free cash flow yield for companies in the S&P 500 and we continue to believe allocating capital to share repurchases is an important priority.
我確實認為,值得注意的是,我們仍然看到我們的股票以較高的自由現金流收益率進行交易,特別是與標準普爾500 指數公司的平均自由現金流收益率相比,並且我們仍然相信將資本分配給股票回購是重要的優先事項。
With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.
接線員,我們就可以開始提問了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.
沙爾‧普爾雷扎,古根漢合夥人。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
It's actually James on for Shar.
實際上是詹姆斯替補沙爾。
So I guess maybe just coming back to the Susquehanna ISA and some of your prepared -- I guess, how has the rejection impacted your customer conversations in the past week?
所以我想也許只是回到薩斯奎哈納 ISA 和你的一些準備 - 我想,拒絕對你過去一周的客戶對話有何影響?
One of your peers sounds committed to co-locations and other maybe more focused on front of the meter.
您的一位同事聽起來致力於共同定位,而其他同事可能更專注於計價器前面。
I guess, where do you fall kind of within those two poles?
我想,在這兩個極點中,你屬於哪一類?
It sounds maybe a little more like colos, but just any more color there would be helpful.
這聽起來可能更像是彩色的,但只要有更多的顏色就會有幫助。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James, we were disappointed with the ruling last Friday.
詹姆斯,我們對上週五的裁決感到失望。
But I think if you look at our discussions on this topic in the past, we've acknowledged that these are complicated deals.
但我認為,如果你看看我們過去關於這個主題的討論,我們就會承認這些都是複雜的交易。
They take time, they're large, they're large even by the standards of the customers that we're talking to.
它們需要時間,它們很大,即使按照我們正在交談的客戶的標準來看,它們也很大。
And if you look at the quantity of deals that this country is going to do, the vast majority of them are going to be front of the meter.
如果你看看這個國家將要做的交易數量,你會發現其中絕大多數都會發生在儀表前。
It's unique to have the large sites that we have and have an opportunity to do a co-located deal.
我們擁有大型場地,並有機會進行同地交易,這是獨一無二的。
We think there are multiple paths forward on this.
我們認為這方面有多種前進道路。
We're not 100% sure how the other parties that are obviously active on that particular ISA are going to want to pursue it.
我們不能 100% 確定那些明顯活躍於該特定 ISA 的其他各方將如何尋求它。
But nothing precludes us from still moving forward with our plans.
但沒有什麼可以阻止我們繼續推進我們的計劃。
I would acknowledge that everyone is looking at these types of issues and how do we work through them because they are they are novel.
我承認每個人都在關注這些類型的問題以及我們如何解決它們,因為它們很新穎。
I mean some of the co-located deals even that we've done, they were smaller.
我的意思是,即使我們已經完成了一些同地辦公的交易,它們的規模也較小。
And so when things are of this scale, there are more questions that need to be answered.
因此,當事情達到如此規模時,就有更多問題需要回答。
But we think there's multiple paths forward.
但我們認為前進的道路有多種。
We can go into some details as to how we think that might play out.
我們可以詳細討論我們認為這可能會如何發展。
But our conversations are still continuing.
但我們的談話仍在繼續。
We still have a number of really good options, both with our nuclear sites as well as gas sites and potentially the new build.
我們仍然有許多非常好的選擇,包括我們的核設施、天然氣設施以及可能的新建設施。
And so I don't think that this is a load profile and a customer base that is going to slow down in aggregate.
因此,我認為負載概況和客戶群總體上不會放緩。
I just think it comes down to which areas of the country are more open to this?
我只是認為這取決於該國哪些地區對此更開放?
Are they able to attract this load because it's a huge economic development opportunity and we'll have to see how that plays out.
他們是否能夠吸引這種負載,因為這是一個巨大的經濟發展機會,我們必須看看效果如何。
And it could play out differently in different parts of the country.
而且它在該國不同地區的表現可能會有所不同。
So I just think that's where we are, and it's a process.
所以我認為這就是我們現在的處境,這是一個過程。
And we're going to work through it with our peers in the industry, the vertically integrated utilities.
我們將與垂直整合公用事業行業的同行一起解決這個問題。
Obviously, the ISOs and any of the other stakeholders as we need.
顯然,ISO 和我們需要的任何其他利害關係人。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Okay.
好的。
Great.
偉大的。
And then maybe just kind of piggybacking on that.
然後也許只是順應這一點。
If we could touch on your thoughts around additionality.
如果我們能談談您對額外性的想法。
Just we heard some commentary from certain members of the PUCT in recent weeks kind of calling for it.
最近幾週,我們聽到了 PUCT 某些成員的一些評論,並呼籲這樣做。
So I guess at this point, do you think a color in ERCOT like Comanche Peak would have to come with additionality?
所以我想在這一點上,您認為 ERCOT 中像科曼奇峰這樣的顏色必須具有額外性嗎?
Maybe just some more general thoughts there.
也許只是一些比較一般的想法。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
I do think there are a couple of issues obviously at play here.
我確實認為這裡顯然存在一些問題。
One is resource adequacy in general, right?
一是整體資源充足性,對嗎?
So even without the additional data center load that could come to, say, Texas in this example, James, since you mentioned it, there have been questions about whether there's adequate price signals for new investment regardless of just the data center load.
因此,即使沒有額外的資料中心負載,例如本例中的德克薩斯州,詹姆斯,自從您提到以來,人們一直質疑,無論資料中心負載如何,新投資是否有足夠的價格訊號。
In fact, the data center load over the next five to six years, will probably not be the largest source of load growth in ERCOT.
事實上,未來五到六年的資料中心負載可能不會成為ERCOT負載成長的最大來源。
It just so happens though when you start talking about the data centers, it looks like one big chunky load coming at a time, so it gets the attention.
事情就是這樣,當你開始談論資料中心時,它看起來就像一次出現一個大塊的負載,所以它引起了人們的注意。
As you know, we've put out our announcement of our intention to add megawatts in ERCOT, both with the Coleto Creek conversion as well as the augmentation of existing gas sites, those two alone are going to bring 1,100 megawatts.
如您所知,我們已經宣布打算在 ERCOT 中增加兆瓦電量,包括 Coleto Creek 改造以及現有天然氣站點的擴建,僅這兩個項目就將帶來 1,100 兆瓦電量。
The peakers are projects that we're still developing, still need to see some of the market reforms come to fruition to make those economic or contracts, contracts that could come from bilateral contracts with customers can make those kinds of projects feasible.
高峰是我們仍在開發的項目,仍然需要看到一些市場改革取得成果,以使這些經濟或合同,可能來自與客戶的雙邊合同的合同可以使此類項目變得可行。
So I don't think this is a discussion that you can solve with just a rule because we've got multiple customer classes coming that are bringing additional load requirements to ERCOT.
因此,我認為這不是一個僅用規則就能解決的討論,因為我們即將迎來多個客戶類別,這些客戶類別為 ERCOT 帶來了額外的負載要求。
But I do think that the objective of the customers that we're talking to, they want to see resources added.
但我確實認為我們正在交談的客戶的目標是,他們希望看到資源的增加。
They're not looking to see the grid become tighter and tighter either.
他們也不希望看到網格變得越來越緊。
So we are very active in the discussion about what additional resources we can bring potentially even in addition to the ones we've already announced.
因此,我們非常積極地討論除了我們已經宣布的資源之外,我們還可以帶來哪些額外資源。
And we hope that if that is a compact that works for all the stakeholders that could help set a confidence that welcoming the load to Texas or any part of the country is actually going to send the investment signal for the supply side and having discussions about whether we may or may not want the load can actually create its own problems.
我們希望,如果這是一個適用於所有利益相關者的契約,那麼它可以幫助樹立信心,歡迎負載來到德克薩斯州或該國任何地區,實際上將為供應方發出投資信號,並討論是否可以這樣做。
And so we've seen many cycles in this industry.
所以我們在這個行業看到了很多周期。
People are prepared to invest and build if the signals are there.
如果有訊號,人們就準備好投資和建設。
I think this is more than just a typical load coming to the market.
我認為這不僅僅是進入市場的典型負載。
This is a unique opportunity for regions of the country and specifically for the US to lead on this topic for such a critical load and use is artificial intelligence.
對於該國各地區,特別是美國來說,這是一個獨特的機會,可以在人工智慧這一關鍵負載和使用的主題上發揮領導作用。
And I hope we all see it that way.
我希望我們都這麼看。
And that's been our main focus in our discussions with policymakers.
這是我們與政策制定者討論的主要焦點。
Operator
Operator
David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.
大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
Maybe a little bit of a follow-up on that -- on your comments there.
也許可以對你的評論進行一些後續行動。
Very helpful.
非常有幫助。
We heard yesterday from Oncor that they're seeing over 80 gigawatts of data centers looking in just their service territory, at least in the pipeline.
昨天我們從 Oncor 獲悉,他們看到超過 80 吉瓦的資料中心正在其服務區域內建設,至少正在建設中。
I mean just given that scale, there's just got to be a bunch of approaches, maybe diversity of approaches that these data centers are going to consider.
我的意思是,考慮到這種規模,這些資料中心必須考慮多種方法,也許是多種方法。
And so maybe just given that, like what are you seeing as the interest in co-location at your gas plants in ERCOT?
因此,也許只是考慮到這一點,您認為 ERCOT 天然氣工廠對同一地點的興趣是什麼?
And then wondering if you could elaborate, too, on just that new build idea?
然後想知道您是否也可以詳細說明這個新的建置想法?
Like are there -- are you in conversations with potential data centers that you might be able to partner with contract -- with a new plant build as well?
就像您是否正在與潛在的資料中心進行對話,您可能可以透過合約合作建立新工廠?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure.
當然。
David, great question.
大衛,好問題。
I'm going to start, I'm going to ask Stacey Dore, our Head of Strategy, to comment on this.
首先,我將請我們的策略主管 Stacey Dore 對此發表評論。
She's working on these types of opportunities on a very near full-time basis.
她幾乎全職從事這些類型的工作。
It's certainly an active time for all those types of conversations.
對於所有這些類型的對話來說,這無疑是一個活躍的時期。
I'd start with load forecasts have been obviously extremely robust in ERCOT, CenterPoint put out some information about the kinds of load growth they're seeing in their territory, certainly Oncor through the separate call yesterday, and ERCOT itself has revised middle of the summer, it's long-term load forecast.
首先,ERCOT 中的負載預測顯然非常穩健,CenterPoint 發布了一些有關他們在其領域內看到的負載增長類型的信息,當然 Oncor 通過昨天的單獨電話會議,ERCOT 本身也修改了中間值夏季,這是長期負載預測。
We've been a bit more conservative only because we believe still it's hard to understand the full duplication that could exist not only within a state, but even across the country because folks are looking for paths to get speed to be able to bring this load.
我們比較保守只是因為我們相信仍然很難理解不僅在一個州內甚至在全國範圍內可能存在的完全重複,因為人們正在尋找獲得速度以能夠帶來這種負載的路徑。
And so they're exploring all options.
所以他們正在探索所有的選擇。
I do think that demand, if we can satisfy it, I do think Texas is probably as well positioned as any part of the country to satisfy that demand.
我確實認為這種需求,如果我們能夠滿足它,我確實認為德克薩斯州可能和全國任何地方一樣能夠很好地滿足這種需求。
And we certainly want to be part of that, not only on providing the relationship for the load, but the potential addition of resources.
我們當然希望成為其中的一部分,不僅提供負載關係,還提供潛在的資源添加。
So I'd like for Stacey to provide some color on the types of conversations we're having and how we're working with Oncor, with CenterPoint, with ERCOT to make sure that we can all solve this together.
因此,我希望 Stacey 提供一些關於我們正在進行的對話類型以及我們如何與 Oncor、CenterPoint 和 ERCOT 合作的信息,以確保我們能夠共同解決這個問題。
Stacey Doré - Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
Stacey Doré - Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
Yeah.
是的。
Thanks, Jim, and thanks for the question, David.
謝謝吉姆,也謝謝大衛的提問。
So we are currently pursuing deals at multiple sites in our portfolio.
因此,我們目前正在投資組合中的多個地點尋求交易。
We're also having some early conversations with some of the developers about a kind of portfolio approach where with one customer, we might be able to pursue co-location deals at multiple sites and combine that with even building some new generation.
我們也與一些開發商就一種投資組合方法進行了一些早期對話,在這種方法中,對於一個客戶,我們可能能夠在多個地點尋求託管交易,並將其與甚至構建一些新一代相結合。
We have -- we're in pretty detailed customer discussions at some of our nuclear sites.
我們正在我們的一些核子工廠進行非常詳細的客戶討論。
There's a lot of interest, obviously, in the nuclear sites.
顯然,人們對核設施很感興趣。
But we have ongoing conversations with several different development companies, about a handful of our gas sites, both in PJM and in ERCOT.
但我們正在與幾家不同的開發公司就我們位於 PJM 和 ERCOT 的少數天然氣站點進行對話。
And we're in early discussions with some of the hyperscalers about nuclear uprates, and some new build as well as Jim mentioned.
我們正在與一些超大規模企業就核升級以及吉姆提到的一些新建設進行早期討論。
And then finally, we're in discussions with two particular large companies about building new gas plants to support a data center project.
最後,我們正在與兩家特定的大公司討論建造新的天然氣工廠以支援資料中心專案。
So as you can see, these discussions just take a number of forms with multiple companies around multiple sites.
正如您所看到的,這些討論只是採取多種形式,與多個地點的多家公司進行討論。
And of course, we're including stakeholders in those conversations as well from policymakers to the applicable transmission distribution utilities.
當然,我們也將利害關係人納入這些對話中,包括從政策制定者到適用的輸配電公用事業公司。
As we've said before, the diligence process for these deals takes a long time.
正如我們之前所說,這些交易的盡職調查過程需要很長時間。
It's an intense effort because these are very long-term commitments to purchasing power.
這是一項艱鉅的努力,因為這些都是對購買力的長期承諾。
And so we're devoting a lot of time and resources to these discussions, but we're excited about the opportunity, and we believe that the -- whether it's Texas or other states that we operate in, Pennsylvania, Ohio, these are jurisdictions that are really interested in welcoming this load because of the economic development it brings.
因此,我們投入了大量的時間和資源來進行這些討論,但我們對這個機會感到興奮,並且我們相信,無論是德克薩斯州還是我們開展業務的其他州,賓夕法尼亞州,俄亥俄州,這些都是司法管轄區由於它帶來的經濟發展,他們確實有興趣歡迎這一負載。
And so it's a multiparty conversation for all of these projects.
因此,所有這些項目都是多方對話。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
It makes sense just given the staggering scale here that so many options are under consideration.
考慮到這裡的規模驚人,正在考慮如此多的選擇,這是有道理的。
And I guess, maybe to ask it more directly too in terms of Comanche Peak.
我想,也許也可以更直接詢問科曼奇峰的情況。
Have you seen Comanche Peak becoming better positioned here just after seeing the FERC challenges that have popped up in PJM, like has urgency increased there?
在看到 PJM 出現的 FERC 挑戰之後,您是否看到科曼奇峰在這裡變得更好,就像那裡的緊迫性增加一樣?
And just would be curious your latest thinking on what the timing of a deal could potentially be?
只是想知道您對交易時間的最新想法是什麼?
Stacey Doré - Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
Stacey Doré - Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
Yeah.
是的。
Thanks, David.
謝謝,大衛。
So we -- our discussions on Comanche Peak have been ongoing for some time, and there certainly is interest in that location because of the speed-to-market advantage it has even before the FERC decision, frankly.
因此,我們關於科曼奇峰的討論已經持續了一段時間,坦白說,人們肯定對該地點感興趣,因為它甚至在 FERC 做出決定之前就具有上市速度優勢。
I mean ERCOT -- and ERCOT is one of the fastest interconnection processes in the country.
我的意思是 ERCOT——ERCOT 是該國最快的互連流程之一。
And the state prides itself on that, the TDUs and ERCOT as well, working together to get load interconnected is an advantage in Texas.
該州為此感到自豪,TDU 和 ERCOT 共同努力實現負載互連是德克薩斯州的一項優勢。
So certainly, the fact that ERCOT is not subject to the FERC jurisdiction and the order that came out last Friday has continued to make Comanche Peak an attractive site, but it was before the FERC order as well.
當然,ERCOT 不受 FERC 管轄權的事實以及上週五發布的命令繼續使科曼奇峰成為一個有吸引力的地點,但它也是在 FERC 命令之前。
So in terms of timing, it's hard to say exactly when we could conclude discussions on that side because, again, there's a lot of work to be done.
因此,就時間安排而言,很難確切地說我們何時可以結束這方面的討論,因為同樣還有很多工作要做。
There's a lot of stakeholders to involve, not just ERCOT, policymakers, Oncor, who is the local TDU at that site, but local officials as well.
有許多利害關係人需要參與,不僅有 ERCOT、政策制定者、Oncor(該地點的當地 TDU),還有當地官員。
So there's a lot of conversations to have, and we're well into that -- deep into that process and continuing to pursue that opportunity, and it's a great opportunity for Vistra and for customers.
因此,有許多對話需要進行,我們已經深入了解這個過程並繼續尋求這個機會,這對瑞致達和客戶來說都是一個很好的機會。
Operator
Operator
Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.
史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼,沃爾夫研究中心。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
I guess I'll dare ask one other question on this topic, which is just Texas has emphasized availability of resources at kind of emergency or peak times and the like.
我想我敢問關於這個主題的另一個問題,德克薩斯州強調在緊急情況或高峰時間等情況下資源的可用性。
Do you see solutions in ERCOT where you could have the generation even if it's co-located, available for kind of the more sensitive periods?
您是否在 ERCOT 中看到了解決方案,即使它位於同一地點,也可以在更敏感的時期使用?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Steve, we do.
是的,史蒂夫,我們知道。
We have even noted, I think, in previous discussions, customers are learning how they can also manage their load during sort of emergency conditions.
我認為,我們甚至注意到,在先前的討論中,客戶正在學習如何在緊急情況下管理其負載。
So whether it's something around a load response or whether it's the backup generation that could be also configured at the site.
因此,無論是負載回應方面的問題,或是也可以在現場進行配置的備份產生。
Again, I think these large customers, I think they're responding to some of the questions that they're receiving and the concerns around resource adequacy, and they're showing that they want to be part of that solution.
再說一遍,我認為這些大客戶正在回答他們收到的一些問題以及對資源充足性的擔憂,並且他們表明他們希望成為解決方案的一部分。
So that is, again, to Stacey's earlier point, why these discussions do take some time, and they're complex is there's a lot of variables that we're managing.
這就是史黛西之前的觀點,為什麼這些討論確實需要一些時間,而且它們很複雜,因為我們要管理很多變數。
So I do think there's going to be some flexibility there, Steve, and I think that will help multiple stakeholders become comfortable with it.
所以我確實認為那裡會有一些靈活性,史蒂夫,我認為這將有助於多個利益相關者對此感到滿意。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then on the -- we just obviously had this big election result.
然後,我們顯然得到了這個重大的選舉結果。
And I'm just -- I know it's two days in, but just the -- any kind of thought process on what this means for kind of both new build gas and then also for your coal fleet?
我只是——我知道已經過去兩天了,但這對——這對新建天然氣和煤炭車隊意味著什麼?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, Steve, I'd tell you the election prediction business is tough, and so is the policy prediction business.
是的,史蒂夫,我想告訴你,選舉預測業務很艱難,政策預測業務也是。
It's -- I guess some of the thoughts that we are working through, the GHG rule, and that's already being challenged, obviously, legally and with the D.C. Circuit.
我想我們正在努力解決的一些想法,溫室氣體規則,顯然已經受到合法的挑戰,並且受到了華盛頓特區巡迴法院的挑戰。
There's -- that could potentially be revised at some point.
有可能在某個時候進行修改。
And you can see that with this administration, that affected not only the coal units, but also new gas.
你可以看到,本屆政府不僅影響了煤炭單位,也影響了新天然氣。
And so that's something that -- we'll have to see how that plays out, and that could still take some time to play out, but that does appear to be more open at the moment, at least in concept.
因此,我們必須看看結果如何,這可能仍需要一些時間才能實現,但目前看來確實更加開放,至少在概念上是如此。
But getting back to this resource adequacy topic and also just the administration changes, it's hard to look at 30-, 35-year assets and look at the changes that happen policy-wise on a four year cadence and see through all of that.
但回到這個資源充足性議題以及政府的變化,很難觀察 30 年、35 年的資產,並以四年為週期觀察政策方面發生的變化,並看透所有這些。
That's a difficult thing for investors to do.
這對投資人來說是一件很難做到的事。
One of the things I like about our business model, and I don't think this is something we talk about a lot is that we're a pretty diversified company.
我喜歡我們的商業模式的一件事是,我們是一家相當多元化的公司,而且我認為這不是我們經常談論的事情。
We have geographic diversity across major markets in the US, different jurisdictions, all obviously, competitive markets.
我們在美國的主要市場、不同的司法管轄區、所有顯然都是競爭性市場中擁有地理多樣性。
But we have a broad technology diversity.
但我們擁有廣泛的技術多樣性。
The largest part of our fleet is gas-fired generation, but then it's nuclear and a coal business that's continuing to decline and a growing solar and battery business.
我們機隊的最大部分是燃氣發電,但核電和煤炭業務持續下降,而太陽能和電池業務則不斷成長。
So we have a lot of diversity in technologies and in line of business.
因此,我們在技術和業務方面有很多多樣性。
You heard today, the retail business is large and growing.
您今天聽說,零售業務規模龐大且不斷成長。
And that tends to be complementary to the generation business.
這往往是對發電業務的補充。
So it's really hard to look at first and second order effects of potential policy changes, but I think we've demonstrated that we're flexible as a company and that will take opportunities that the market presents us and execute on it.
因此,很難看到潛在政策變化的一階和二階影響,但我認為我們已經證明,我們作為一家公司是靈活的,並將抓住市場為我們提供的機會並執行它。
So I view this as -- I wouldn't say this is normal course for Vistra, but this has been a lot of our history in the competitive market is having to adapt.
所以我認為這對瑞致達來說並不是正常的過程,但這是我們在競爭市場中必須適應的歷史。
And so we are obviously open to the technologies that you've mentioned.
因此,我們顯然對您提到的技術持開放態度。
It's a big part of our portfolio, and we'll have to see if that -- if some of those get some extended life opportunities, but too early to call.
這是我們投資組合的重要組成部分,我們必須看看其中一些是否獲得了一些延長生命的機會,但現在下結論還為時過早。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then one last quick one.
然後是最後一個快速的。
You added the mention for 2026 of potentially meaningfully above the $6 billion.
您添加了 2026 年可能有意義地超過 60 億美元的提及。
I don't know if you care to define what meaningfully means and the like or just in the event that -- in the event that the PJM auction just were to price where it did the last auction, is there any kind of more color you could give about that?
我不知道您是否願意定義有意義的含義以及類似的含義,或者只是在這種情況下 - 如果 PJM 拍賣只是按照上次拍賣的價格進行定價,您是否還有更多的顏色可以透露嗎?
Is that the main driver?
這是主要司機嗎?
Is it really more ERCOT pricing?
ERCOT 定價真的更高嗎?
Just any color would be helpful.
任何顏色都會有幫助。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, I'm going to let Kris take this one.
史蒂夫,我會讓克里斯拿這個。
Good question.
好問題。
We know words matter, and that would be one that you pick up on.
我們知道言語很重要,而這正是您所接受的。
So Kris?
那麼克里斯?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, Steve, I think it's a combination of those things.
是的,史蒂夫,我認為這是這些因素的結合。
I think, obviously, as you look at it, we're only -- we're 64% hedged.
我認為,顯然,正如你所看到的,我們只是 - 我們 64% 進行了對沖。
We're making progress in that area.
我們正在該領域取得進展。
But even if you look at our 2025 guidance, there's a good range around that.
但即使您查看我們的 2025 年指導,也會發現有一個很好的範圍。
It's 5% plus or minus around our 2025 guidance, and we're 96% hedged there.
與我們 2025 年指導方針相比,上下浮動 5%,而我們對此進行了 96% 的對沖。
So as we look out to 2026, and we see 64% hedged, you can imagine that our range around that is a little bit wider.
因此,當我們展望 2026 年時,我們看到 64% 的人進行了對沖,你可以想像我們的範圍會更寬一些。
And you also mentioned the PJM auction, that's an area.
您還提到了 PJM 拍賣,這是一個領域。
So we think it's still prudent to say $6 billion.
所以我們認為60億美元仍然是謹慎的說法。
I think if the auction comes in where we -- where it came in the last time and as we hedge a little bit more, we have built in some protection against those things potentially going against us.
我認為,如果拍賣發生在我們上次發生的地方,並且當我們多一點對沖時,我們就建立了一些保護措施,以防止那些可能對我們不利的事情。
So you could see some upside.
所以你可以看到一些好處。
And I think that we're not going to state where we see the upper end, but you can imagine that we've built in a little bit of upside to that if those things -- as we hedge more and as we see the auction results come in.
我認為我們不會說明我們看到的上限,但你可以想像我們已經建立了一點上行空間,如果這些事情 - 當我們對沖更多並且當我們看到拍賣時結果進來了。
Operator
Operator
Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.
傑里米·託內特,摩根大通。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Just wanted to pick up, I guess, on the diversified footprint as you mentioned there.
我想只是想了解您在那裡提到的多元化足跡。
Just wondering how you think about the ERCOT versus PJM opportunity set at this point in time, particularly in light of the Talen ISA ruling, granted it's early days, but do you see things like this kind of starting to favor ERCOT more at the margin?
只是想知道您如何看待此時設置的 ERCOT 與 PJM 機會,特別是考慮到 Talen ISA 裁決,儘管現在還處於早期階段,但您是否認為此類事情開始在邊緣上更加有利於 ERCOT?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I don't think so, Jeremy.
我不這麼認為,傑里米。
The capacity -- again, the ISA is one dimension, but a capacity market construct in PJM is something that I think creates a real opportunity to send a price signal and encourage investment, whether that's some assets that are on the grid to not retire or to bring new assets and obviously meeting the load growth that PJM is now forecasting.
容量——同樣,ISA是一個維度,但我認為PJM的容量市場結構創造了一個發送價格信號和鼓勵投資的真正機會,無論是電網上不會退役的一些資產還是帶來新資產並明顯滿足PJM目前預測的負載成長。
That market design does not exist in Texas.
德克薩斯州不存在這種市場設計。
And that's something that from a capacity market discussion, where it's an energy-only market.
這是來自容量市場討論的內容,這是一個純能源市場。
And so it has been a bit more volatile in terms of you might have a really strong summer in 2023, but we've had weaker clears in 2024.
因此,從 2023 年夏季可能會非常強勁的角度來看,它的波動性更大,但 2024 年的清倉情況卻較弱。
So if you were putting batteries on the grid right now in '24, you're probably wondering if you're going to get a return on those batteries, whereas you might have felt really good about it heading into the summer of 2023.
因此,如果您在 24 年將電池併入電網,您可能想知道是否會從這些電池上獲得回報,而到了 2023 年夏天,您可能會對此感覺非常好。
So the ISA is only one dimension.
所以 ISA 只是一維。
It's important to note that load is load.
要注意的是,負載就是負載。
If this load comes into PJM, whether it's behind the meter or front of the meter, it's load growth.
如果這個負載進入PJM,無論是在電錶後面還是在電錶前面,都是負載成長。
A capacity market should send a signal like it did at the end of July, but there was intervention coming on the heels of that that's now led to a request for a six month delay.
容量市場應該會發出像 7 月底那樣的信號,但緊隨其後的是乾預措施,現在導致要求推遲六個月。
Again, as I stated earlier, if these markets would consistently run their opportunities for the auction in the case of PJM.
再次,正如我之前所說,如果這些市場能夠持續利用 PJM 的拍賣機會。
And for Texas being clear about signaling, wanting the load to come, I think these price signals would be there.
對於德克薩斯州來說,明確信號,希望負載到來,我認為這些價格信號將會存在。
There'd be investment opportunities in both of them.
兩者都會有投資機會。
But right now, PJM has a more structured way of valuing capacity and signaling in a forward curve basis, the need for that capacity than does the ERCOT market.
但目前,PJM 擁有比 ERCOT 市場更結構化的方式來評估容量並以遠期曲線為基礎發出訊號,表明對容量的需求。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Understood on the PJM capacity auction there.
了解那裡的 PJM 容量拍賣。
But maybe coming back to the ERCOT -- power curves, how do you see that evolving over time?
但也許回到 ERCOT——功率曲線,您如何看待它隨時間的演變?
Do you think that demand is really reflected in future pricing there?
您認為需求真的反映在未來的定價上嗎?
Or how do you see that kind of evolving?
或者你如何看待這種演變?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
That would get more to sort of a fundamental view of where do we think the curves are relative to this load growth.
這將更多地了解我們認為曲線與負載增長的關係的基本觀點。
And I would say, it feels to me and Steve Muscato, our Head of our Wholesale and Gen Business, can chime in here, but it feels to me that the curves are not factoring in all of this load growth at this point.
我想說,我和我們的批發和發電業務主管史蒂夫穆斯卡托(Steve Muscato)感覺可以在這裡插話,但我感覺曲線此時並未考慮所有這些負載增長。
That there's a lot of forecasts out there, folks are going to want to see more data points that it's actually coming to fruition.
那裡有很多預測,人們會希望看到更多的數據點來證明它實際上正在實現。
And we try to put in our presentation, we're seeing that we're on this curve of load growth.
我們嘗試在演示中展示,我們看到我們正處於負載增長的曲線上。
We put that in for what we're seeing in 2024.
我們將其納入 2024 年的預測中。
But as noted earlier in some of the questions, there's massive load growth being forecasted by the ISO as well as the wires companies.
但正如前面一些問題所指出的,ISO 和電線公司預測負載會大幅成長。
I would not say the curves reflect all of that coming in at this point.
我不會說這些曲線反映了此時出現的所有情況。
And I think just some of the recency of this summer is also weighing on the curves.
我認為今年夏天的一些近期事件也在影響曲線。
And Steve, I would like to have you add some comments to that.
史蒂夫,我想讓你對此補充一些評論。
Stephen Muscato - Executive Vice President and President Wholesale Operations & Development
Stephen Muscato - Executive Vice President and President Wholesale Operations & Development
Sure.
當然。
I agree, Jim.
我同意,吉姆。
I think people are extrapolating what I'll call historical load growth from the last two or three years of between 3% to 4% over the peaks.
我認為人們正在推斷過去兩三年的歷史負載成長,即較高峰成長 3% 至 4%。
And I think they're putting that forward in their models.
我認為他們正在他們的模型中提出這一點。
It really gets down to how much of -- I think someone mentioned the Oncor study with 80 gigawatts of data centers.
這實際上取決於有多少——我想有人提到了 Oncor 研究中的 80 吉瓦數據中心。
So how much of that actually gets in?
那麼其中有多少真正進入了呢?
And will we exceed the historical trends that we've seen before?
我們會超越之前看到的歷史趨勢嗎?
And I also do think there's some recency bias.
我也確實認為存在一些新近度偏差。
Unfortunately, power is only liquid to maybe out until 2028, 2029, it's hard to see beyond that, and there's not a lot of activity.
不幸的是,電力的流動性可能要到 2028 年、2029 年才會耗盡,很難看到更久遠的情況,也沒有太多的活動。
And so the recent clears we saw, I think, this summer have weighed a little bit because I think people also try to figure out there's a very large asymmetry in pricing in Texas that we've seen both in the winter and in the summer.
因此,我認為,今年夏天我們看到的最近的清倉有點重要,因為我認為人們也試圖弄清楚德克薩斯州的價格存在很大的不對稱性,我們在冬季和夏季都看到過這一點。
And one of the areas I think you'll see traders focus on more in the future is what kind of premium do you put on winter because even if batteries continue to come into the market, which I think they're going to be challenged because they're -- as you mentioned earlier, Jim, they're cannibalizing the revenue streams.
我認為交易者未來會更加關注的一個領域是,你會在冬季給予什麼樣的溢價,因為即使電池繼續進入市場,我認為他們也會面臨挑戰,因為正如你之前提到的,吉姆,他們正在蠶食收入來源。
Right now, there's so many of them, there's more batteries in the market right now than the ancillary services can handle, which is their primary source of revenue, not necessarily energy arbitrage.
目前,它們的數量太多了,市場上的電池數量超出了輔助服務的處理能力,這是他們的主要收入來源,不一定是能源套利。
And when you mix that in with a winter event that's not just one or two hours in duration.
當你將其與冬季活動混合在一起時,持續時間不僅僅是一兩個小時。
I think you may see some more scarcity come into the winter curves going forward.
我想你可能會看到未來的冬季曲線會出現更多的稀缺。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And thank you, Steve.
謝謝你,史蒂夫。
And I'd like to add, Jeremy, just two other dimensions.
傑里米,我想補充另外兩個維度。
This was the first month that we've seen where the new additions to the queue for solar and storage and wind were actually less than the number of projects canceled or moved into inactive status.
這是我們看到的第一個月,太陽能、儲能和風能隊列中新增項目的數量實際上少於取消或進入非活動狀態的項目數量。
So I do think markets have a way of, over time, rationalizing economics.
因此,我確實認為,隨著時間的推移,市場有辦法合理化經濟。
The other thing I think that's weighed on the curves was the curves looked very attractive in the sort of May '24 time frame.
我認為影響曲線的另一件事是,在 24 月 24 日的時間範圍內,曲線看起來非常有吸引力。
And I think the TEF, the quantity of the TEF, interest and the discussions of continuing TEF or even having a larger TEF -- I'm sorry, I'm saying TEF.
我認為 TEF、TEF 的數量、興趣以及繼續 TEF 甚至更大的 TEF 的討論 - 對不起,我說的是 TEF。
Texas Energy Fund.
德克薩斯能源基金。
That is something that I think the markets are struggling to figure out how to handicap and look at is that only going to be an incentive for new generation only?
我認為市場正在努力弄清楚如何阻礙這一點,並且看看這是否只會激勵新一代?
Or is that going to send a signal to keep existing generation online?
或者這會發出一個信號,讓現有一代保持在線?
And so there's still a lot to sort out, I think, on the TEF because we're still in early stages with the due diligence process, and we're going to enter a legislative session next year.
因此,我認為,TEF 仍有許多問題需要解決,因為我們仍處於盡職調查過程的早期階段,而且我們將在明年進入立法會議。
And I think folks are trying to figure out what is the state going to do if they're going to actually increase that quantity of assets qualifying for TEF or if they're going to let the market send a price signal to try to bring that investment.
我認為人們正在試圖弄清楚,如果政府要真正增加符合 TEF 資格的資產數量,或者如果他們要讓市場發出價格信號來嘗試實現這一目標,他們會採取什麼措施?
And I think that's still too early to call.
我認為現在下結論還為時過早。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
That's helpful there.
這很有幫助。
That was kind of getting to my last question here with regards to TEF and just your project development activities in ERCOT, especially with the TEF considerations that you said there, could you just, I guess, update us overall on your thought process?
這就是我最後一個關於 TEF 的問題,以及您在 ERCOT 中的專案開發活動,特別是考慮到您在那裡所說的 TEF 考慮因素,我想您能否向我們介紹一下您的整體思維過程?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure.
當然。
Yeah.
是的。
We did submit two peakers as part of the TEF application.
作為 TEF 申請的一部分,我們確實提交了兩個 Peaker。
Basically, each party that was selected, was selected for one project.
基本上,每一方被選中都是為了一個專案而被選中的。
So one of our two peakers was selected.
因此,我們的兩個峰值之一被選中。
As we stated when we made the announcement in May and have continued to state since then, we want to see the actual development from a market design standpoint make progress.
正如我們在 5 月宣布這一消息時所聲明的那樣,以及此後一直聲明的那樣,我們希望看到從市場設計的角度來看實際開發取得進展。
We -- our reliability standard has been developed.
我們——我們的可靠性標準已經制定。
It's not linked to a requirement if we fall below a reserve or there are concerns around reliability, it's not linked to a market mechanism to procure additional resources in the market, but at least the reliability standard has been designed and will be studied on a periodic basis.
如果我們低於儲備或對可靠性有擔憂,它與要求無關,與在市場上採購額外資源的市場機制無關,但至少已經設計了可靠性標準,並將定期研究基礎。
The PCM, performance credit mechanism, is now hard capped at $1 billion.
PCM(績效積分機制)目前的硬性上限為 10 億美元。
It was a net cap.
這是一個淨上限。
So presumably, that could mean a lower overall quantity of resources being dedicated to a performance credit mechanism.
因此,這可能意味著用於績效信用機制的資源總量會減少。
And there are some discussions about even that being challenged potentially in the legislative session.
甚至有一些討論甚至在立法會議上可能會受到挑戰。
So I think that in the ancillary services like the dispatchable reliability reserve service are still to be figured out.
所以我認為像可調度可靠性儲備服務這樣的輔助服務還有待解決。
Real-time co-optimization is in flight as well for ancillaries and energy that could be bearish for some price formation.
輔助設備和能源的即時協同優化也在進行中,這可能對某些價格形成不利。
And that also speaks to how do we incentivize resources to come into the state to meet the load growth.
這也說明了我們如何激勵資源進入該州以滿足負載成長。
And I don't think we have all that figured out yet in Texas.
我認為德克薩斯州還沒有解決所有問題。
And I think that's work that we've got to do as an industry so that we can continue to meet the need.
我認為這是我們整個產業必須要做的工作,這樣我們才能繼續滿足需求。
We've designed our projects for the peakers that we're continuing to move forward.
我們已經為高峰者設計了我們正在繼續推進的項目。
The team is working on all the efforts we need on site as well as with our key partners.
團隊正在與我們的主要合作夥伴一起在現場進行我們需要的所有工作。
But we also have off ramps to both of those peakers if the market developments that we need to see don't occur.
但如果我們需要看到的市場發展沒有發生,我們也有通往這兩個高峰的出口。
And we hope that's not the case because we'd like to bring those peakers, but we've got to make economic decisions.
我們希望情況並非如此,因為我們希望引進那些巔峰球員,但我們必須做出經濟決定。
And we're still not there yet.
但我們還沒有做到這一點。
Operator
Operator
Angie Storozynski, Seaport.
安吉·斯托羅辛斯基,海港。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
So maybe first on '26, maybe even '27.
所以也許首先是在 26 年,甚至可能是在 27 年。
So just wondering if by then, by '26, '27, you would expect to have any meaningful EBITDA impact from those data center deals, be it co-locations or virtual PPAs?
因此,我想知道到那時,到 26 年、27 年,您是否期望這些資料中心交易(無論是主機託管還是虛擬購電協議)對 EBITDA 產生任何有意義的影響?
And also, if that changes the way you're hedging your, especially, baseload units in those outer years?
而且,這是否會改變您對沖特別是那些外部年份的基本負載單位的方式?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Angie, thank you for the question.
是的,安吉,謝謝你的提問。
I would say it's tough to see it being meaningful in '26, '27 simply because of the physics of building out what you need to on the ground and then obviously powering the site as resources, servers, chips become available and installed.
我想說的是,很難看到它在26 年、27 年有意義,因為物理原理是在地面上構建你需要的東西,然後隨著資源、伺服器、晶片變得可用和安裝而明顯地為站點提供動力。
And that's after the study processes have to be done on the front end.
那是在前端完成研究過程之後。
And so the timeline for these, you could be in a four to five year process before you're putting a meaningful amount of power to a co-located facility.
因此,在為同一地點的設施提供大量電力之前,您可能需要四到五年的時間才能實現這些目標。
So I think timeline wise, it's not really affecting how we're thinking about the hedging in the more near term, sort of this 2026, 2027.
因此,我認為從時間安排來看,這並沒有真正影響我們如何考慮近期的對沖,例如 2026 年、2027 年。
And if it did, we'd start layering it in, in a more -- we're pretty open, still obviously, 2027, more than '26.
如果確實如此,我們會開始將其分層,以一種更開放的方式,顯然,2027 年,比 26 年還要開放。
So we hope that opportunity is there to be layering that in, but I would not say from a guidance perspective or from a hedging perspective, it's in the horizon that we've been talking to the market about in terms of our direction here for our earnings power.
因此,我們希望有機會將其分層,但我不會從指導角度或對沖角度說,這是我們一直在與市場談論我們的方向的地平線。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then changing topics.
然後就換話題了。
So a lot of discussion, obviously, and interest in your nuclear plants.
顯然,有很多討論,並且對你們的核電站感興趣。
You have many more gas plants.
你們還有更多的天然氣工廠。
Can you just give us a sense directionally about the pricing differential for nuclear assets versus gas assets?
您能否為我們介紹一下核資產與天然氣資產的定價差異?
Is it as simple as just carbon-free attributes or again, just even directionally, how these prices compare in the discussions that you have with the data centers?
是否像無碳屬性一樣簡單,或者再次,甚至是定向的,在您與資料中心的討論中如何比較這些價格?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
Thank you, Angie.
謝謝你,安吉。
I would say we aren't able and really would prefer not to share pricing differences by asset class.
我想說的是,我們無法也確實不願意以資產類別分享定價差異。
But I will say that in previous calls, I've mentioned that customers look at this as a list of preferences.
但我要說的是,在之前的電話中,我已經提到客戶將其視為偏好清單。
There's things that they are seeking that are more ideal including location and what kind of energy needs there might be for cooling, right?
他們正在尋求更理想的東西,包括位置以及冷卻所需的能源類型,對嗎?
So there's all sorts of variables that are going to go into the equation of how valuable is this to a customer in speed and land and water and other variables are going to play into their willingness to pay under certain circumstances, more or less for different locations.
因此,各種各樣的變數都會影響到速度、土地和水對客戶的價值,其他變數將影響他們在某些情況下的支付意願,或多或少地針對不同地點。
And so I would not expect -- I could be wrong, but I would not expect the gas assets to have the same premium as nuclear because of the carbon-free 24/7 attributes of nuclear.
所以我不會期望 - 我可能是錯的,但我不會期望天然氣資產具有與核電相同的溢價,因為核電具有無碳 24/7 屬性。
But there is an openness to gas that we're encouraged about.
但我們對天然氣的開放態度感到鼓舞。
And I think the flexibility of being able to work with these assets is attractive for a number of parties, including co-location partners that aren't directly the hyperscalers themselves.
我認為能夠使用這些資產的靈活性對許多各方都有吸引力,包括本身不直接是超大規模的託管合作夥伴。
So I think I'd like to leave it at that, Angie, but I think that's the way we're thinking about it.
所以我想就這樣吧,安吉,但我認為這就是我們思考這個問題的方式。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
And then last one, I know I promised Eric, just one question.
最後一個,我知道我答應過艾瑞克,只問一個問題。
But could you comment about the transmission capacity around your PJM assets, especially the -- especially Beaver Valley.
但您能否評論一下您的 PJM 資產周圍的輸電能力,尤其是海狸谷。
So for example, if there were to be a need for a virtual PPA in -- like in front-of-the-meter deal for that asset, is the transmission sort of overbuilt around it?
舉例來說,如果需要虛擬購電協議(例如該資產的電錶前交易),那麼圍繞它的傳輸是否有點過度建設?
Or do you have to wait for upgrades?
還是必須等待升級?
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I'll start, Angie, and I'll ask Stacey for her views, but we sit in a pretty balanced area where we are from a congestion point of view with the locations we have, the three locations there in PJM.
是的,我會開始,安吉,我會問史黛西她的意見,但我們坐在一個相當平衡的區域,從擁擠的角度來看,我們擁有的位置,PJM 的三個位置。
There's still going to be study processes and efforts to connect load even if there is a perceived capacity available on the transmission system because there is still studying to be done about what adding load to a particular spot is going to do to the whole system.
即使傳輸系統上有可用的感知容量,仍然需要研究過程和連接負載的努力,因為仍需要研究向特定點添加負載將對整個系統產生什麼影響。
And I don't think we view it necessarily as it's going to be faster or slower if there is some capacity or not, I think it's probably going to be slower if it's front of the meter versus co-located.
我認為我們不一定會認為它會更快或更慢,如果有一定的容量或沒有的話,我認為如果它位於計價器前面而不是位於同一位置,它可能會更慢。
And I think that's what we need to work.
我認為這就是我們需要努力的。
Again, we may end up doing both in the area in that region of the country.
同樣,我們最終可能會在該國該地區的地區進行這兩項工作。
Stacey, anything you'd like to add to that?
史黛西,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Stacey Doré - Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
Stacey Doré - Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
I would just add that at Beaver Valley, we do have a necessary study agreement.
我想補充一點,在海狸谷,我們確實有必要的學習協議。
It's already been studied that a load could be co-located there without negative impact to the grid.
已經有研究表明,負載可以並置在那裡,而不會對電網產生負面影響。
And so I agree with Jim that it's the benefit of co-location and the reason customers are pursuing it is for speed to market.
因此,我同意吉姆的觀點,即主機託管的好處,而客戶追求它的原因是為了加快上市速度。
So it will be faster than front of the meter.
所以它會比儀表前面快。
Having said that, again referencing what Jim said, earlier, there will be plenty of front-of-the-meter connections as well.
話雖如此,再次引用吉姆之前所說的話,也會有大量的儀表前連接。
And to the extent as we do with all customers that we can serve those customers with PPA for their front-of-the-meter connection, we're certainly open to those discussions and having some of those discussions as well.
就我們與所有客戶所做的事情而言,我們可以透過 PPA 為這些客戶提供儀表前端連接服務,我們當然願意接受這些討論,並且也進行其中的一些討論。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session.
我們的問答環節到此結束。
I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke for any closing remarks.
我想將會議轉回吉姆·伯克(Jim Burke)發表閉幕詞。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
Thank you for joining us today.
感謝您今天加入我們。
I want to thank the team for their continued execution and service to our customers and communities.
我要感謝團隊對我們的客戶和社區的持續執行和服務。
We appreciate we're having this call in a very dynamic time.
我們很高興在一個非常活躍的時期召開這次電話會議。
And I can just assure you our team is focused on delivering.
我可以向您保證,我們的團隊專注於交付。
We appreciate your interest in Vistra, and we certainly hope to see you in person soon.
我們感謝您對瑞致達的興趣,當然希望很快能見到您。
Have a great rest of your day.
祝您有個愉快的一天。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded.
會議現已結束。
Thank you for attending today's presentation.
感謝您參加今天的演講。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連線。