Vistra Corp (VST) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Vistra's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

早安，歡迎參加 Vistra 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Micek。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our fourth quarter 2024 results.

早安，感謝您參加 Vistra 的投資者網路廣播，討論我們的 2024 年第四季業績。

Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

我們今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係專欄進行現場直播。您也可以在此找到今天的投資者介紹和收益報告的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天主持電話會議的是 Vistra 總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke；以及 Vistra 執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。

They are joined by other Vistra's senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

必要時，Vistra 的其他高階主管也會加入他們，在今天電話會議的第二部分解答問題。

Earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

今天電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。

All references to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth throughout this presentation refer to ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth.

本演示中所有對調整後 EBITDA 和增長前調整後自由現金流的引用均指持續經營調整後 EBITDA 和增長前持續經營調整後自由現金流。

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

收益報告和 Vistra 網站投資者關係部分提供的投資者介紹附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至今天為止合理的假設。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied.

此類前瞻性陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。

We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explains the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報投影片 2 中的安全港聲明，其中解釋了前瞻性陳述的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非 GAAP 財務指標的使用。

I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆·伯克。

Thank you, Eric.

謝謝你，埃里克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2024 operational and financial results. 2024 was a transformational year for our company, defined by growth and execution.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論我們的 2024 年第四季和全年營運和財務業績。 2024 年是我們公司的轉型之年，其特點是成長和執行。

In the past 12 months, we closed on unique acquisition, adding 3 new nuclear sites and 1 million retail customers with nearly 2,000 team members joining the Vistra family.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們完成了一項獨特的收購，增加了 3 個新的核電廠和 100 萬零售客戶，近 2,000 名團隊成員加入了 Vistra 大家庭。

We completed a 20-year license renewal for our Comanche Peak nuclear power plant and secured 2 large power purchase agreements for our renewable pipeline.

我們完成了科曼奇峰核電廠 20 年許可證續期，並為我們的再生能源管道簽署了 2 份大型購電協議。

Our retail business grew and reached performance levels not achieved in the past 2 decades of competitive markets.

我們的零售業務實現了成長，並達到了過去 20 年競爭市場中未曾達到的業績水準。

This was a result of our one team mindset at Vistra, and I'm excited about what we can achieve in 2025.

這是 Vistra 團隊精神的結果，我對我們在 2025 年能夠取得的成就感到興奮。

Turning to Slide 5.

翻到幻燈片 5。

Vistra delivered another strong year of financial and operational performance, resulting in full year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion.

Vistra 又取得了強勁的財務和營運業績，全年調整後 EBITDA 達到 56.56 億美元。

This outstanding financial performance, which the team achieved despite a mostly mild year of weather in our key markets exceeded the top end of our original guidance range even before considering the $545 million benefit from the nuclear production tax credit that we recognized in the fourth quarter.

儘管今年我們主要市場的天氣大多較為溫和，但我們團隊仍然取得了出色的財務業績，即使不考慮我們在第四季度確認的 5.45 億美元核生產稅收抵免收益，這一業績也超出了我們最初預期範圍的最高值。

This consistent execution from our team across generation, commercial and retail, supported by a focused corporate services team delivered reliable power and customer solutions that reflect the strength of our integrated business model.

在專注的企業服務團隊的支持下，我們的團隊在發電、商業和零售領域始終保持一致的執行力，提供了可靠的電力和客戶解決方案，反映了我們綜合業務模式的實力。

We believe the performance achieved in 2024 is proof that a diversified portfolio of generation assets, including nuclear and gas, combined with a best-in-class retail business and a sophisticated commercial team produces a superior business model for operating in volatile power markets.

我們相信，2024 年取得的業績證明，包括核能和天然氣在內的多元化發電資產組合，加上一流的零售業務和成熟的商業團隊，能夠在動盪的電力市場中打造出卓越的營運商業模式。

Moving to our longer-term outlook.

轉向我們的長期展望。

We are reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3 billion to $3.6 billion that were introduced on our third quarter call.

我們重申在第三季電話會議上提出的 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 55 億美元至 61 億美元的指導範圍以及增長前調整後自由現金流 30 億美元至 36 億美元的指導範圍。

As you can see, we are also maintaining our outlook for a 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6 billion.

如您所見，我們也維持對 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 中點機會超過 60 億美元的預期。

While we have the potential to be significantly above this amount, there are still a number of variables in play, including final approval of the 2026-2027 PJM auction parameters and remaining hedging activity required to take us above the current hedge level of 80%.

雖然我們有可能遠高於這個數額，但仍存在許多變數，包括 2026-2027 年 PJM 拍賣參數的最終批准，以及使我們超過當前 80% 的對沖水平所需的剩餘對沖活動。

We expect to provide more clarity on our expectations for 2026 later this year.

我們預計今年稍後將更加明確我們對 2026 年的預期。

Finally, during 2024, Vistra positioned itself to deliver significant capacity additions in our key markets to meet the coming load growth.

最後，在 2024 年，Vistra 將在我們的主要市場大幅增加產能，以滿足未來的負載成長。

This starts with the megawatts we can bring to the grid most quickly, augmentations of existing gas assets in our Texas market totaling approximately 500 megawatts.

首先是我們可以最快輸送到電網的兆瓦電力，增加德州市場的現有天然氣資產，總計約 500 兆瓦。

These uprates represent an effective and efficient use of capital to add capacity to the market, especially in the hours when it's needed most.

這些上調代表著有效且有效率的利用資本來增加市場容量，特別是在最需要的時候。

We completed nearly half of those uprates in 2024, and we'll finish the remainder in time for this summer.

我們在 2024 年完成了近一半的升級工作，剩餘的工作將在今年夏天之前完成。

We also announced the expected conversion of our Coleto Creek coal plant to a gas fuel plant once it ceases coal operations in 2027, enabling it to operate beyond its previously announced retirement date.

我們還宣布，預計我們的 Coleto Creek 煤電廠將於 2027 年停止煤炭運營，屆時將轉型為燃氣燃料電廠，使其能夠在先前宣布的退役日期之後繼續運營。

In addition, we adjusted the 2025 retirement date for Baldwin, extending operations to 2027, which will help with reliability concerns in MISO.

此外，我們調整了鮑德溫 2025 年的退休日期，將營運延長至 2027 年，這將有助於解決 MISO 的可靠性問題。

And we are developing contracted solar and battery projects in a number of competitive markets.

我們正在多個競爭激烈的市場開發合約太陽能和電池專案。

Moving to new gas build.

轉向新的天然氣建設。

As we announced last May, we are in the early stages of development for 2 natural gas peakers, totaling up to 860 megawatts of capacity.

正如我們去年 5 月宣布的那樣，我們正處於 2 個天然氣調峰發電廠的開發早期階段，總容量高達 860 兆瓦。

While we continue to target a commercial operations date for these units in the middle of 2028, the ultimate decision on construction will depend on our view of the economics, including any market reforms being considered.

雖然我們仍計劃在 2028 年中期實現這些機組的商業運營，但最終的建設決定將取決於我們的經濟觀點，包括正在考慮的任何市場改革。

Turning to Slide 6.

翻到幻燈片 6。

Our 4 key strategic priorities remain central to our strong operational and financial business performance.

我們的四大關鍵策略重點仍然是我們強勁的營運和財務業務表現的核心。

As highlighted on the previous slide, our integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program provide increased visibility into our long-term financial outlook.

正如上一張投影片所強調的，我們的綜合業務模式和全面的對沖計劃提高了我們長期財務前景的可視性。

From an operational perspective, our generation team achieved another year of strong commercial availability at approximately 95% for our gas and coal fleet.

從營運角度來看，我們的發電團隊又實現了一年強勁的商業可用性，天然氣和煤炭發電設施的可用性約為 95%。

Our nuclear fleet also delivered a solid result with a capacity factor of 92%.

我們的核電機組也取得了不錯的成績，容量係數達到 92%。

We are excited about the work that's already been done to form a nuclear fleet operating model, and we believe we have opportunities going forward with respect to our operations performance improvement efforts.

我們對已經完成的建立核電機組營運模式的工作感到非常興奮，我們相信我們在營運績效改進方面有機會取得進展。

Our team continues to deliver high commercial availability, particularly in hours when it's needed most.

我們的團隊持續提供高商業可用性，特別是在最需要的幾個小時。

The most recent example being the winter storms in February of this year, where the team achieved commercial availability of approximately 96% across the fleet nationwide.

最近的例子是今年 2 月的冬季風暴，該團隊在全國範圍內實現了約 96% 的機隊商業可用性。

On the retail side, the team delivered an impressive result driven by strong customer account growth and disciplined margin management despite milder weather in most of our markets.

在零售方面，儘管大多數市場的天氣較為溫和，但得益於強勁的客戶帳戶成長和嚴格的利潤管理，團隊仍取得了令人印象深刻的業績。

Switching to capital allocation.

轉向資本配置。

We remain disciplined in our approach to allocating shareholder capital through a strategy that balances return of capital and investment in growth.

我們始終嚴格遵循平衡資本回報與成長投資的策略來分配股東資本。

As part of this approach, we continue to execute the capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021.

作為該方法的一部分，我們將繼續執行 2021 年第四季制定的資本回報計畫。

Since that time, we have returned approximately $5.9 billion to our investors through open market share repurchases and common stock dividends.

自那時起，我們已透過公開市場股票回購和普通股股息向投資者返還了約 59 億美元。

We expect to return at least $2 billion in total through share repurchases in 2025 and 2026, which includes the additional $1 billion share repurchase authorization announced last quarter.

我們預計 2025 年和 2026 年透過股票回購總共返還至少 20 億美元，其中包括上個季度宣布的額外 10 億美元股票回購授權。

We also closed on the highly accretive acquisition of the 15% Vistra Vision minority interest.

我們也完成了對 Vistra Vision 15% 少數股權的高增值收購。

That acquisition, which represents a significant investment in our nuclear and renewable generation assets as well as our retail franchise, simplifies our business model and increases our proportion of 0 carbon revenue streams, all while balancing financial leverage.

此次收購是對我們的核能和再生能源發電資產以及零售特許經營權的重大投資，它簡化了我們的商業模式，增加了我們的零碳收入流的比例，同時平衡了財務槓桿。

Moving to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

Our financial position is ahead of expectations communicated during our third quarter call, with net debt at the end of 2024 below 3x adjusted EBITDA.

我們的財務狀況超出了第三季電話會議上傳達的預期，2024 年底的淨債務低於調整後 EBITDA 的 3 倍。

We expect further deleveraging through 2025 and 2026.

我們預計 2025 年和 2026 年將進一步去槓桿。

With respect to 0 carbon growth projects, we continue to execute on our strategy of utilizing existing land and interconnects to opportunistically complete solar and energy storage projects.

對於零碳成長項目，我們繼續執行利用現有土地和互連設施擇機完成太陽能和能源儲存項目的策略。

As part of this strategy, we completed and brought online 2 solar and energy storage facilities at our Baldwin and Coffeen sites in Illinois, which is part of our Illinois Coal to Solar and Energy Storage initiative in the fourth quarter.

作為該策略的一部分，我們在伊利諾伊州鮑德溫和 Coffeen 工廠完成並投入使用 2 個太陽能和能源儲存設施，這是我們第四季度伊利諾伊州煤炭轉太陽能和能源儲存計劃的一部分。

We have also begun construction at our sites in Oak Hill, Texas in support of our contract with Amazon and Pulaski, Illinois, for our contract with Microsoft.

我們也已開始在德克薩斯州橡樹山的工地上進行施工，以支持我們與亞馬遜簽訂的合同，以及在伊利諾伊州普拉斯基的工地上進行施工，以支持我們與微軟簽訂的合同。

Once online, these facilities will add over 600 megawatts of renewable capacity to our portfolio.

一旦投入使用，這些設施將為我們的投資組合增加超過 600 兆瓦的可再生能源容量。

Moving to our nuclear portfolio, we have engineering studies in process with initial estimates indicating the potential for uprates across our nuclear fleet of approximately 10%.

談到我們的核能組合，我們正在進行工程研究，初步估計表明，我們整個核電廠的升級潛力約為 10%。

We expect to finalize these studies over the next year with target online dates in the early 2030s.

我們預計在明年完成這些研究，目標上線日期為 2030 年代初。

Before I continue, I'd like to take a minute to address our Moss Landing site in California.

在繼續之前，我想花一點時間介紹我們位於加州的莫斯蘭丁 (Moss Landing) 站點。

As you know, one of our facilities on the site, the 300-megawatt Phase 1 battery storage facility experienced a fire.

如您所知，我們現場的一個設施，300兆瓦的第一階段電池儲存設施發生了火災。

We are grateful there were no injuries, and the event was managed safely by our team and first responders, and we appreciate the support of the community.

我們非常慶幸沒有造成人員受傷，我們的團隊和急救人員安全地管理了這項活動，我們感謝社區的支持。

Other facilities located on site, including the 100-megawatt Phase II battery storage facility, the 350-megawatt Phase III battery storage facility and the 1,020 megawatt combined cycle gas plant were not damaged by the incident.

現場的其他設施，包括 100 兆瓦第二階段電池儲存設施、350 兆瓦第三階段電池儲存設施和 1,020 兆瓦聯合循環燃氣電廠，均未在此次事故中受損。

The combined cycle plant has since restarted to resume normal operations.

聯合循環電廠目前已重新啟動並恢復正常運作。

The other 2 battery facilities will remain off-line until we've had sufficient time to evaluate them in light of what is learned.

其餘 2 個電池設施將保持離線狀態，直到我們有足夠的時間根據所了解的情況對其進行評估。

We will continue to work with the community and state leaders on our path forward, including the remediation of the Phase 1 facility with safety remaining the team's highest priority.

我們將繼續與社區和州領導人共同努力，包括修復第一階段的設施，同時將安全仍然是團隊的首要任務。

Moving to Slide 7.

移至幻燈片 7。

We continue to see real-time load growth in our primary markets.

我們繼續看到主要市場的即時負載成長。

Similar to the 2024 summer peak load growth highlighted in our third quarter results call, actual load growth, weather normalized in PJM and ERCOT for the 2024-2025 winter peak, also exceeded historical rates.

與我們在第三季業績電話會議中強調的 2024 年夏季尖峰負載成長類似，PJM 和 ERCOT 針對 2024-2025 年冬季高峰的天氣標準化的實際負載成長也超過了歷史水準。

This included new records for winter peak load of 145 gigawatts in PJM, exceeding Winter Storm Elliot by approximately 9 gigawatts; and approximately 80 gigawatts in ERCOT, exceeding last year's winter storm, Heather, by approximately 3 gigawatts.

其中包括 PJM 冬季高峰負荷創下 145 吉瓦的新紀錄，超過冬季風暴埃利奧特約 9 吉瓦；埃因霍溫電力可靠性委員會 (ERCOT) 的發電量約為 80 吉瓦，比去年冬季風暴希瑟 (Heather) 的發電量高出約 3 吉瓦。

Energy use in these markets is growing even faster than peak demand, indicating likely future acceleration in peak load growth as these numbers converge.

這些市場的能源使用成長速度甚至超過了尖峰需求，這表明隨著這些數字的趨同，未來尖峰負載成長可能會加速。

We continue to believe the level of growth across both markets confirms our view that load growth is already ramping and the most recent updates to load forecast from PJM and ERCOT reflect these accelerating growth trends.

我們仍然相信，兩個市場的成長水準證實了我們的觀點，即負載成長已經在加速，而 PJM 和 ERCOT 對負載預測的最新更新也反映了這些加速的成長趨勢。

PJM and ERCOT have consistently revised long-term forecast upwards, and that is certainly a bullish sign.

PJM 和 ERCOT 一直在不斷上調長期預測，這無疑是一個看漲訊號。

We will keep an eye on the ramp rates as we go.

我們將密切關注上升速度。

Importantly, the source of this expected load growth remains diversified across industries with power demand related to AI data centers being only one aspect of the growth in large load sources.

重要的是，預期負載成長的來源仍然是跨產業的多樣化，與人工智慧資料中心相關的電力需求只是大型負載源成長的一個面向。

The magnitude of expected load growth has raised the level of discussions with different views on how to solve projected declines in system-wide reserve margins.

預期負載成長的幅度引起了關於如何解決全系統儲備裕度預計下降問題的不同觀點的討論。

Over the last few months, there has been significant regulatory and legislative action related to market design in both PJM and ERCOT.

在過去的幾個月中，PJM 和 ERCOT 都採取了與市場設計相關的重大監管和立法行動。

Generation interconnect queues across the country remain heavily weighted towards renewable projects, which do not provide the same reliability benefits as dispatchable resources.

全國各地的發電互連隊列仍然嚴重偏向再生能源項目，而這些項目無法提供與可調度資源相同的可靠性優勢。

While there have been some short-term actions taken by policymakers, long-term market structure questions remain.

儘管政策制定者採取了一些短期行動，但長期的市場結構問題仍然存在。

Recent developments with respect to the PJM capacity auction will provide some clarity, but continued delays and persistent regulatory uncertainty have made it difficult for generators to respond in a timely manner.

PJM 容量拍賣的最新進展將提供一些清晰度，但持續的延遲和持續的監管不確定性使得發電廠難以及時做出反應。

FERC's recent 206 order, which we believe indicates the co-located load in PJM, will continue to be permitted as a step in the right direction.

我們認為，聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 最近頒布的 206 號命令表明 PJM 中的共置負載將繼續被允許，這是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。

However, there are a number of questions to be answered and clarity may not be provided until this summer.

然而，仍有許多問題需要解答，可能要到今年夏天才能給出明確的答案。

In Texas, policymakers remain concerned with grid reliability and the challenges of meeting the forecast for rapidly growing load.

在德州，政策制定者仍然擔心電網的可靠性以及滿足快速成長負載預測的挑戰。

We appreciate policymakers' concerns about grid reliability.

我們瞭解政策制定者對電網可靠性的關注。

It's a message we have consistently reinforced for many years.

這是我們多年來一直在強調的訊息。

However, the market reforms to incentivize new generation have been limited or shelved, which is leading to a heightened concern about new large loads.

然而，激勵新一代發電的市場改革受到限製或被擱置，這導致人們對新的大負載的擔憂加劇。

Recent legislative activity in Texas is raising some questions with both generators and large load customers, particularly data center customers.

德州最近的立法活動引起了發電機和大負載客戶，特別是資料中心客戶的一些疑問。

It is still early in the legislative process and is not yet clear whether customers will pause or change any of their siding decisions for data centers in ERCOT while the legislation is under consideration, but we see workable pathways to a resolution.

目前立法過程尚處於早期階段，尚不清楚在立法審議期間，客戶是否會暫停或改變其在 ERCOT 資料中心的任何側線決定，但我們看到了解決問題的可行途徑。

With the proper policy framework, our competitive markets can welcome the load growth and the economic development that accompanies it.

在適當的政策架構下，我們的競爭市場可以迎接負載成長以及隨之而來的經濟發展。

We can build generation faster and at a lower cost in other areas of the country, while the utilities build out the needed transmission.

我們可以在全國其他地區更快、更低成本地建造發電廠，同時公用事業公司可以建造所需的輸電設施。

The team at Vistra will continue to work with policymakers and regulators on these key issues.

Vistra 團隊將繼續與政策制定者和監管機構就這些關鍵問題進行合作。

This is a big opportunity for the areas of the country that find a way to do this well, and it aligns with our national interest.

對於全國各地能夠找到辦法做好這件事的地區來說，這是一個巨大的機遇，而且這符合我們的國家利益。

In competitive markets, our view remains to let markets function by sending the proper supply and demand signals.

在競爭激烈的市場中，我們的觀點仍然是透過發出適當的供需訊號讓市場發揮作用。

Load growth by itself is a market signal that can incentivize generation.

負載成長本身就是一種可以激勵發電的市場訊號。

As we discussed on previous calls, we expect load growth to come from many sources, including residential, onshoring of manufacturing, oil and gas electrification as well as data centers, including those focused on AI.

正如我們在先前的電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們預計負載成長將來自許多來源，包括住宅、製造業在岸、石油和天然氣電氣化以及資料中心，其中包括專注於人工智慧的資料中心。

Regardless of the demand source, we believe a new paradigm of load growth is already occurring, and we expect it to continue.

無論需求來源為何，我們都認為負載成長的新模式已經出現，而我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

With that, I will turn it over to Kris to provide more information on our fourth quarter and full year results, our outlook and our capital allocation.

接下來，我將把主題轉交給克里斯，以提供有關我們第四季度和全年業績、展望和資本配置的更多資訊。

Kris?

克里斯？

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Turning to Slide 9.

翻到幻燈片 9。

As a reminder, on our first quarter results call following the closing of the Energy Harbor acquisition, we initiated guidance for 2024 combined adjusted EBITDA with a range of $4.55 billion to $5.05 billion including $700 million expected to be contributed from owning the Energy Harbor business for 10 months.

提醒一下，在完成 Energy Harbor 收購後的第一季業績電話會議上，我們啟動了 2024 年合併調整後 EBITDA 的指引，範圍為 45.5 億美元至 50.5 億美元，其中包括預計擁有 Energy Harbor 業務 10 個月將貢獻的 7 億美元。

Despite the lower cleared prices and the mostly milder weather we experienced throughout 2024, we delivered adjusted EBITDA, excluding the nuclear production tax credit, of more than $300 million above the midpoint and more than $50 million above the top end of that range.

儘管 2024 年全年清算價格較低且天氣大多較為溫和，但我們實現的調整後 EBITDA（不包括核生產稅收抵免）仍比中點高出 3 億多美元，比該範圍的上限高出 5,000 萬美元以上。

Including the nuclear production tax credit, our adjusted EBITDA was more than $850 million above the midpoint and more than $600 million above the top end.

包括核生產稅收抵免在內，我們的調整後 EBITDA 比中間值高出 8.5 億美元以上，比最高值高出 6 億美元以上。

Notably, the 10-month contribution from Energy Harbor, including the nuclear PTC, exceeded our $700 million expectation by approximately $200 million.

值得注意的是，包括核能 PTC 在內的 Energy Harbor 的 10 個月貢獻比我們 7 億美元的預期高出約 2 億美元。

As you would expect, the adjusted EBITDA overperformance in 2024 translated to a higher-than-expected adjusted free cash flow before growth of approximately $2.888 billion implying a conversion ratio of approximately 57% when excluding the nuclear PTC from adjusted EBITDA.

正如您所預料的，2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 超額表現轉化為成長前調整後的自由現金流高於預期，約為 28.88 億美元，這意味著在將核 PTC 排除在調整後的 EBITDA 之外時，轉換率約為 57%。

As we've stated previously, we didn't expect the 2024 nuclear PTC to begin impacting cash until 2025 at the earliest.

正如我們之前所說，我們預計 2024 年核 PTC 最早要到 2025 年才會開始對現金產生影響。

Looking forward, we continue to target a conversion rate of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow before growth of at least 55% to 60%.

展望未來，我們將繼續以調整後 EBITDA 向成長前調整後自由現金流的轉換率至少達到 55% 至 60% 為目標。

Moving to Slide 10.

移至投影片 10。

Despite the potential impact from the Moss Landing fire, including the uncertainty around the timing and treatment of insurance recoveries, which we expect to total up to $500 million, we are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, and our adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3 billion to $3.6 billion.

儘管莫斯蘭丁大火可能帶來影響，包括保險賠償的時間和處理的不確定性（我們預計總額將高達 5 億美元），但我們仍重申 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍為 55 億美元至 61 億美元，調整後增長前自由現金流範圍為 30 億美元至 36 億美元。

Looking forward to 2026, as Jim noted, we continue to have high confidence in an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6 billion.

展望 2026 年，正如吉姆所說，我們仍然對超過 60 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 中點機會充滿信心。

As always, our guidance and long-term outlook remains supported by our comprehensive hedging program.

像往常一樣，我們的指導和長期前景仍然受到我們全面的對沖計劃的支持。

Since our third quarter call, our 2026 hedge ratio has increased from 64% to 80%.

自第三季電話會議以來，我們的 2026 年對沖比率已從 64% 上升至 80%。

Our commercial team continues to be opportunistic in taking advantage of periods of power price strength and volatility to protect our gross margin.

我們的商業團隊繼續抓住機會，利用電價強勁和波動的時期來保護我們的毛利率。

Turning to Slide 11.

翻到第 11 張投影片。

We provide an update on the progress of our capital allocation plan.

我們提供有關資本配置計劃進展的最新資訊。

Our share repurchase program continues to generate significant value for our shareholders.

我們的股票回購計劃繼續為我們的股東創造巨大價值。

Since beginning the program in November 2021, we have reduced our shares outstanding by approximately 30%, repurchasing approximately 160 million shares at an average price per share of approximately $30.46. Notably, this reduction in our share count has led to an approximately 48% increase in our dividend per share since Q4 2021.

自 2021 年 11 月開始該計劃以來，我們已將流通股減少了約 30%，以每股約 30.46 美元的平均價格回購了約 1.6 億股。值得注意的是，自 2021 年第四季以來，我們的股票數量減少已導致每股股息增加約 48%。

Moving to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

As of the end of 2024, our net leverage was below our stated long-term target of 3x adjusted EBITDA despite closing the acquisition of the 15% Vistra Vision minority interest on the last day of the year, and recognizing the remaining payment obligations as debt.

截至 2024 年底，儘管我們在年底最後一天完成了對 Vistra Vision 15% 少數股權的收購，並將剩餘的支付義務確認為債務，但我們的淨槓桿率仍低於我們所述的 3 倍調整後 EBITDA 的長期目標。

Going forward, we expect to continue to manage the balance sheet in a conservative manner.

展望未來，我們預計將繼續以保守的方式管理資產負債表。

Finally, we will remain disciplined in the deployment of capital towards further deleveraging growth and shareholder return.

最後，我們將繼續嚴格配置資本，進一步去槓桿，實現成長和股東回報。

To that end, we expect to spend just over $700 million on solar and energy storage projects in 2025, including the previously announced solar projects supported by contracts with Amazon and Microsoft.

為此，我們預計 2025 年將在太陽能和能源儲存項目上投資超過 7 億美元，其中包括先前宣布的與亞馬遜和微軟簽訂合約支援的太陽能專案。

Based on our current pipeline of contracted projects, we expect a moderate step-down in solar and energy storage development CapEx for 2026, but this could change as additional offtake agreements are executed.

根據我們目前簽訂的合約專案儲備，我們預計 2026 年太陽能和能源儲存開發資本支出將適度下降，但隨著更多承購協議的執行，這種情況可能會發生變化。

Of course, we will continue to pursue opportunities to fund a significant portion of our growth expenditures with third-party capital, including nonrecourse loans.

當然，我們將繼續尋找機會利用第三方資本（包括無追索權貸款）為我們成長支出的很大一部分提供資金。

Finally, we continue to expect to return at least $1.3 billion to our shareholders in each of 2025 and 2026 through dividends and share repurchases.

最後，我們仍預計在 2025 年和 2026 年分別透過股利和股票回購向股東返還至少 13 億美元。

Even after taking that into account, we continue to expect to have at least the $1.5 billion of incremental capital available for allocation through the end of 2026 that we highlighted on our third quarter call.

即使考慮到這一點，我們仍然預計到 2026 年底可供分配的增量資本至少會達到我們在第三季電話會議上強調的 15 億美元。

As a reminder, this amount is based on an assumed $6 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, so we see potential for significant upside.

提醒一下，該金額是基於 2026 年 60 億美元調整後 EBITDA 的假設，因此我們認為還有很大的上漲潛力。

We are excited for the opportunities in the coming year and believe Vistra remains well positioned to take advantage of the growing energy dynamics in our primary markets.

我們對來年的機會感到興奮，並相信瑞致達仍然能夠充分利用我們主要市場日益增長的能源動態。

We believe the significant amount of cash that we generate, combined with our disciplined capital allocation program, we'll continue to add substantial value for our shareholders.

我們相信，我們產生的大量現金，加上我們嚴格的資本配置計劃，我們將繼續為股東創造可觀的價值。

With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

接線員，現在我們可以開始回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.

(操作員指示) Shar Pourreza，古根漢合夥人。

So obviously, no surprise on the line of questioning here.

因此顯然，對於這裡的提問，我們並不感到驚訝。

But I guess, what color can you provide on the time line for a deal at this point?

但我想，您現在可以提供達成交易的時間表嗎？

I mean, can you at least book end it should we be -- should we see something by midyear, year-end, '26?

我的意思是，你至少可以把它寫完嗎？

I guess what's the primary impediment on getting a deal done.

我猜想達成交易的主要障礙是什麼。

Is it Texas legislature?

這是德州立法機構嗎？

Is it DeepSeek spooking customers?

DeepSeek 是在嚇唬客戶嗎？

Is it FERC and PJM, something else?

是 FERC 和 PJM 還是其他？

Thank you, Shar.

謝謝你，莎爾。

I think we had a sense this question might be coming.

我想我們已經預料到這個問題可能會出現。

I would say, assuming this is an M&A and it's about data center deals because there's multiple deals that we look at all the time.

我想說，假設這是一項併購，並且涉及資料中心交易，因為我們一直在關注多筆交易。

But I will tell you that, on the data center side, it's important, I think, to elevate the dialogue from the simple nature that there's just a contract to be signed.

但我要告訴你，在資料中心方面，我認為，重要的是將對話從僅僅簽署合約的簡單性質提升到更高水平。

The flavor of the deal matters.

交易的味道很重要。

So you can assume that we're speaking to all the major hyperscalers and that we're actively engaged with them and the major data center developers.

因此，你可以假設我們正在與所有主要的超大規模企業進行交流，並且我們正在積極與他們和主要的資料中心開發人員合作。

But there are flavors of complexity.

但也存在著複雜性。

So the virtual PPA, which would be a front-of-the-meter, those are relatively straightforward deals to execute.

因此，虛擬 PPA（即電力線前端）是相對容易執行的交易。

We have a number of discussions going on with those.

我們就這些問題進行了多次討論。

Those do not offer, we think, the same margin potential as the more complicated deals, which do involve colocation, whether it's with existing assets or new assets.

我們認為，這些交易提供的利潤潛力不如更複雜的交易那麼多，後者確實涉及主機託管，無論是現有資產還是新資產。

When we think about that, because it's a new concept, there's a lot of terms and conditions, including the risk sharing that goes into that partnership because you're making a 10-, 15-, 20-year commitment.

當我們考慮這一點時，因為這是一個新概念，所以有很多條款和條件，包括合作關係中的風險分擔，因為你做出了 10 年、15 年、20 年的承諾。

And you've seen not many deals have been announced that have actually been colocation related.

您會發現，實際上宣布的與主機託管相關的交易並不多。

We think colo deals offer a lot of benefits for not only the data center customer and our fleet, but the market overall, the overall customer base.

我們認為託管交易不僅為資料中心客戶和我們的設備群帶來許多好處，也為整個市場和整個客戶群帶來許多好處。

Because it not only provides speed to market for the customer, it can result in lower transmission build-out that the grid absorbs today.

因為它不僅為客戶提供了產品上市的速度，還可以降低目前電網所吸收的輸電負載。

So the customer may be willing to pay for that speed, pay for the reliability benefits but because it's fairly complicated, it's elevated the discussion in all regulatory and policymaking circles.

因此，客戶可能願意為這種速度付費，為可靠性優勢付費，但由於它相當複雜，因此它在所有監管和政策制定圈子中引起了討論。

So FERC, of course, has been active on that, and we have seen some positive progress there.

因此，聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 一直積極致力於此事，我們也看到了一些積極進展。

Texas has just recently filed legislation trying to sort out how do they think about front-of-the-meter and colocation deals and customers are aware of that.

德州最近剛提出立法，試圖理清他們如何看待電網側和主機託管交易，客戶也意識到了這一點。

So when we're talking to these customers, they want to be viewed as constructive, they want clarity on these rules.

因此，當我們與這些客戶交談時，他們希望被視為建設性的，他們希望明確這些規則。

And so I think the timing of an announcement will also be dependent at some level on when we get clarity on how these deals can move through the process, both in PJM and in Texas.

因此，我認為宣布的時間在某種程度上也取決於我們何時能明確這些交易在 PJM 和德克薩斯州的進展。

It wouldn't prevent us from signing front-of-the-meter virtual PPAs.

這不會阻止我們簽署電網側虛擬 PPA。

But I think the deal that you're speaking about and that folks want to see is where the marriage of the load and the generation asset is proximate because that makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons.

但我認為，你所談論的交易以及人們希望看到的交易是負載和發電資產的結合，因為這在很多方面都很有意義。

And that complexity, I think, has raised, I think, the level of discussion at the federal and state level as well as our customers.

我認為，這種複雜性提高了聯邦、州和客戶的討論水準。

But we are in this discussion every single day.

但我們每天都在討論這個問題。

We feel good about the direction of travel on it, but it's still something that we've got to actually get over the finish line before you'd see us announce something.

我們對其發展方向感到滿意，但在我們宣布某些事情之前，我們還必須真正跨越終點線。

Got it.

知道了。

And it's just fair to assume that Comanche Peak is probably the lowest hanging fruit versus Davis–Besse or Beaver Valley, et cetera.

並且可以公平地假設，與戴維斯-貝斯或比弗谷等相比，科曼奇峰可能是最低的選擇。

Is that in your discussions?

這是你們的討論內容嗎？

Is that where the focus is?

焦點就在那裡嗎？

I would say there's interest in both markets for different reasons.

我想說人們對這兩個市場感興趣的原因不同。

I would say the Comanche Peak opportunity is probably right now considered the most attractive for a variety of reasons.

我想說，由於多種原因，科曼奇峰機會可能目前被認為是最具吸引力的。

But I think it's also one that as from the standpoint of having the amount of land we have and the ability to bring that on pretty quickly, just construction time lines in Texas working with the wires companies to make sure that we're set up.

但我認為，從我們擁有的土地數量和快速完成建設的能力的角度來看，只需與電線公司合作制定德克薩斯州的施工時間表，以確保我們能夠順利完成建設。

We think it's probably the fastest execution that we have across the portfolio.

我們認為這可能是我們整個投資組合中最快的執行速度。

Perfect.

完美的。

And just lastly, just on a commercial question.

最後，關於一個商業問題。

Obviously, the CDR was very bullish for power, but the moves in the forwards has been a little slower than what we may have expected.

顯然，CDR 對權力非常看好，但前鋒的舉動比我們預期的要慢一些。

We just hit a winter peak demand last week.

我們上週剛達到了冬季需求高峰。

Can you just talk a little bit about what the commercial team is seeing in the outer years of the forwards and maybe just how that impacts your positioning?

能不能稍微談談商業團隊對前鋒外線幾年表現的看法，以及這對你的定位有何影響？

And Shar, that leads to also the question of if you were to sign a long-term deal at a power price, what do you think is a fair power price?

沙爾，這也引出了一個問題，如果您要以電價簽署長期協議，您認為公平的電價是多少？

But if you don't think the forwards today reflect the load growth that everyone is worried about, then you got to be thoughtful about what's the right price to be selling a 10-, 15-, 20-year deal, especially if it's a fixed price construct.

但如果您認為今天的遠期價格沒有反映出每個人都擔心的負載增長，那麼您必須仔細考慮出售 10 年期、15 年期、20 年期合約的合理價格，特別是如果它是一個固定價格結構。

We don't think that the forwards, while they have moved up in the last couple of months, and I'm speaking about ERCOT, they've actually turned a little bit on the outer years in PJM.

我們不認為前鋒會有什麼變化，儘管他們在過去幾個月裡有所進步，而且我說的是 ERCOT，但他們實際上在 PJM 的外圍年份發生了一些變化。

So we're not seeing exactly the same direction in those 2 markets.

因此，我們看到這兩個市場的發展方向並不完全相同。

But speaking of ERCOT, since you referenced the CDR, we don't think the kind of load growth that's in the office or attestations or even if you haircut it by 50%, we don't think that's in the forwards fully.

但是說到 ERCOT，既然您提到了 CDR，我們不認為辦公室或證明中的負載增長，或者即使您將其削減 50%，我們也不認為這完全是前向的。

And so we're going to be thoughtful about signing up a valuable asset that's producing power and selling on a routine basis at a level that's producing very strong earnings like we just covered in 2024.

因此，我們將認真考慮簽署一項有價值的資產，該資產可以產生電力並定期銷售，其收益水平非常強勁，就像我們在 2024 年剛剛提到的那樣。

And so our commercial team thinks that while we're starting to see some of that response, we don't think it's fully in there, and that colors the discussions we have with customers because they also are trying to figure out what does the forwards look like?

因此，我們的商業團隊認為，雖然我們開始看到一些反應，但我們認為它還沒有完全實現，而且這影響了我們與客戶的討論，因為他們也想弄清楚前鋒是什麼樣子的？

What's going to happen with the Inflation Reduction Act?

通貨膨脹削減法案將會產生什麼結果？

Are the solar and battery is going to continue to come at the same level?

太陽能和電池將繼續保持同一水平嗎？

And all of that affects the supply-demand signal that I talked about in my prepared remarks.

所有這些都影響我在準備好的發言中談到的供需訊號。

So we're bullish power, of course, because our fleet is well positioned but I think the signals that are there, if you were just taking the forwards, we'd be reluctant to just be signing that up on a 10-, 15-, 20-year basis and be comfortable that we can tell our shareholders that that's fair value.

因此，我們當然看好實力，因為我們的船隊定位良好，但我認為，如果只是遠期合約，我們不願意僅以 10 年、15 年或 20 年為基礎簽訂合約，而且我們可以放心地告訴股東，這是公平價值。

Got it.

知道了。

And I appreciate it.

我對此表示感謝。

Jim, that's actually very helpful, and I think it's something that investors should think about as your views are on power and contracting.

吉姆，這實際上非常有幫助，我認為這是投資者應該考慮的事情，因為你的觀點是關於權力和承包。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

朱利安‧杜穆蘭‧史密斯 (Julien Dumoulin-Smith)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Look, maybe just a follow-up on where Shar left it and some of the comments that you made.

瞧，也許只是 Shar 所留下的內容和您所做的一些評論的後續報道。

How do you think about the additionality, right?

您如何看待附加性，對嗎？

And I mean that in the more complex sense of, is there a need immediately or over time to add to existing sites?

我的意思是，從更複雜的意義上來說，是否需要立即或隨著時間的推移添加到現有網站？

I mean obviously, we see sort of the intent of SB-6 in some respects.

我的意思是，顯然我們在某些​​方面看到了 SB-6 的意圖。

We see some of the commentary.

我們看到了一些評論。

How are you thinking about managing that both in the PJM and ERCOT narrative?

您考慮如何在 PJM 和 ERCOT 敘述中管理這個問題？

And how does that figure into your planning?

這在您的計劃中是如何體現的？

And then I got a follow-up on the guidance here quickly.

然後我很快就得到了這裡指導的後續資訊。

Julien, thank you for the question.

朱利安，謝謝你的提問。

When you think about this 24/7 load that is the profile that the data centers expect to have, and then you look at a grid like ERCOT, we're only tight certain hours of the year.

當您考慮到資料中心預計擁有的全天候負載時，再看看像 ERCOT 這樣的電網，您會發現，我們一年中只有某些時段的負載很緊張。

So the question, I think, that we're trying to work through with policymakers, is what problem are we trying to solve?

所以我認為，我們正試圖與政策制定者一起解決的問題是，我們要解決什麼問題？

And I think the problem that we're trying to solve is that if this load continues to come on aggressively, in ERCOT with its current portfolio of resources, can it add a lot more load and not worry about any reliability impact, particularly to the residential customer base who has traditionally been part of any load shed protocol, in fact, even first in the load shed protocol.

我認為，我們正在嘗試解決的問題是，如果這種負載繼續急劇增加，那麼在 ERCOT 當前的資源組合下，它能否增加更多的負載，而不必擔心對可靠性產生任何影響，特別是對於傳統上一直是任何負載削減協議一部分的住宅客戶群，事實上，甚至是負載削減協議中的第一個。

And I think that's very fair to elevate that concern.

我認為提出這種關注是非常公平的。

But since we're talking about a few hours of the year, summer and winter and likely even more winter than summer, all these data centers expect to be bringing one-for-one backup resources.

但由於我們談論的是一年中的幾個小時，夏季和冬季，甚至冬季可能比夏季更多，所有這些資料中心都希望帶來一對一的備份資源。

That's unlike any other customer class.

這與其他任何客戶類別都不同。

So what we're working through is on those limited hours of the year, in the backup resources with proper notification, can those backup resources be utilized.

因此，我們正在研究的是在一年中的那些有限的時間內，在備份資源中，透過適當的通知，這些備份資源是否可以被利用。

And if they can, and we can get the clarity of that with the environmental rules, then we can solve a problem in the super peak hours.

如果他們可以，而且我們可以透過環境規則來明確這一點，那麼我們就可以解決高峰時段的問題。

And I don't think it takes new combined cycles just to solve this problem, okay?

而且我認為不需要新的複合循環就能解決這個問題，好嗎？

I think we've got a very active and diversified portfolio of resources, but we need to have flexibility to use that back up.

我認為我們擁有非常活躍和多樣化的資源組合，但我們需要靈活地利用這些資源。

I think that is gaining some interest, and I think that's something that policymakers are open to.

我認為這引起了一些興趣，而且我認為這是政策制定者願意接受的事情。

But I think we've also got to be clear that they have to have high reliability and fidelity of power.

但我認為我們也必須明確的是，它們必須具有高可靠性和電力保真度。

And so that needs the notification process, and they've got to be prepared to shift to that.

因此，這需要通知流程，他們必須做好準備轉向這項流程。

In some of the legislation that's been proposed, it's unclear if there's going to be notice, if there's, for instance, a disconnect switch that somebody else can trigger.

在某些已提出的立法中，尚不清楚是否會有通知，例如是否有其他人可以觸發的斷路開關。

And so we need to work through some of those aspects.

因此，我們需要解決其中的一些問題。

But I think the concept is that there's actually excess capacity most hours of the year on the ERCOT grid.

但我認為，事實上，ERCOT 電網在一年中的大部分時間都存在著過剩容量。

Our combined cycles run at 50% to 60% capacity factors.

我們的聯合循環運轉容量係數為 50% 至 60%。

So the issue is not the average day, the issue is really about super peak hours, and that's what we're focused on.

所以，問題不在於平常的日子，問題其實在於超級尖峰時段，這才是我們關注的重點。

Right.

正確的。

So you still think something could happen this year, though, right, after the summer for legislative session and PJM resolution?

那麼，您仍然認為今年夏天立法會議和 PJM 決心結束後還會發生一些事情嗎？

I certainly hope so, Julien.

我當然希望如此，朱利安。

I will tell you though, and I've tried to message this on previous calls.

不過我會告訴你，而且我在之前的通話中也嘗試過傳達這個訊息。

These customers have a lot of options.

這些顧客有很多選擇。

Everybody is talking to them.

大家都在跟他們交談。

They have markets all over the country.

他們的市場遍布全國各地。

Obviously, they have international opportunities.

顯然，他們有國際機會。

But even in the U.S., I do expect that we're going to get something done.

但即使在美國，我也確實期望我們能夠取得一些成就。

But I respect their ability to negotiate and work their option set and they're sophisticated.

但我尊重他們的談判能力和處理選擇的能力，他們很老練。

And so having just the land and the interconnects and the gas turbines, and look, we have 2 slots coming for turbines in '26 and first quarter of '27.

因此，只要有土地、互連線路和燃氣渦輪機，我們就有 2 個用於安裝渦輪機的插槽，分別是 26 年和 27 年第一季。

We're as early in the Q on that.

我們對此還處於早期階段。

But when I look at it, they still have choices of where they're going to go, and we have value in those assets and that needs to marry up.

但當我考慮這個問題時，他們仍然可以選擇去哪裡，而我們在這些資產中也擁有價值，因此需要將其結合起來。

And so yes, I do expect to make progress.

是的，我確實希望取得進展。

And I think policymakers and legislative clarity here would help.

我認為政策制定者和立法的明確性將會有所幫助。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

I was wondering, are you able to discuss or give a rough range of kind of what pricing levels that you might be thinking or discussing out there with potential deal structures?

我想知道，您是否可以討論或給出您可能正在考慮或討論的潛在交易結構的定價水平的大致範圍？

We had some suggestions from a peer of yours yesterday.

昨天我們收到了您的一位同事的一些建議。

Wondering if you would give any color around how that compares to your own discussions?

想知道您是否能就這與您自己的討論進行一些對比？

Yes.

是的。

For a lot of reasons, I don't think I'm comfortable talking about pricing in a competitively sensitive kind of category that we're in.

由於很多原因，我認為我不太願意談論我們所處的競爭敏感類別的定價問題。

And obviously, it matters on the value proposition.

顯然，這對價值主張很重要。

So as I mentioned on the earlier response, a straight sort of front-of-the-meter virtual PPA, I'd expect to have a lower margin assumption because it's a less differentiated product.

因此，正如我在先前的回覆中提到的那樣，對於直接的計量表前端虛擬 PPA，我預計利潤率假設會較低，因為它是差異化程度較低的產品。

You might get paid for some emissions, attributes like if it's a carbon-free energy credit of sorts, but you can capture some of that value.

您可能會因為一些排放而獲得報酬，例如某種無碳能源信用，但您可以獲得其中的一些價值。

Colocation on an existing resource where you're offering speed to market for a customer, if you can execute on that, I think you would potentially see the highest margin.

在現有資源上進行主機託管，您可以為客戶提供快速上市的服務，如果您可以做到這一點，我認為您可能會看到最高的利潤。

The one that I think is unclear at the moment is if you pair a new generation with a new customer and they need to take a take-or-pay, especially if it's not grid connected, there could be a premium that the customer has to pay to make that whole model work.

我認為目前尚不明確的是如果你將新一代與新客戶配對，並且他們需要採取照付不議的方式，特別是如果它沒有接入電網，那麼客戶可能需要支付額外費用才能使整個模式發揮作用。

But it may not be a margin.

但這可能不是一個利潤。

It may just give you your required equity return and maybe not a lot of extra, but that took a lot of investment for you to bring that about.

它可能只會為你帶來所需的股本回報，也許不會有很多額外的回報，但這需要你進行大量的投資才能實現。

So the sweet spot, as we see it, is understanding what value proposition you have with your fleet and then figuring out is there a place where you can meet in the middle with a customer for what you provide.

因此，我們認為，最佳點是了解您的車隊的價值主張，然後找出一個可以與您所提供的產品和客戶達成折衷的地方。

And I think that's what Vistra has that differentiates us from many others is that, we've got a lot of operating assets with a lot of land.

我認為這就是 Vistra 與其他公司的不同之處，我們擁有大量營運資產和大量土地。

We can do a colo on existing sites, but we can also go to sites that we have over 50 that don't have power plant assets on them.

我們可以在現有站點上進行託管，但我們也可以前往 50 多個沒有發電廠資產的站點。

We could build new there.

我們可以在那裡建造新建築。

We could partner with a customer.

我們可以與客戶合作。

That isn't typically the fastest speed to market.

這通常不是最快的上市速度。

So when we have a conversation with the customer and they're asking us what can you do to help us in '27 with our needs, those packages look like '29 and '30, and they're interesting, but they're not as actionable to the customers that we're speaking with.

因此，當我們與客戶交談時，他們問我們在 27 年可以做些什麼來滿足我們的需求，這些套餐看起來像 29 年和 30 年的套餐，它們很有趣，但對於我們正在交談的客戶來說，它們並不那麼可行。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

That makes sense.

這很有道理。

And then wondering if you could give an update on the prospects for potential gas plant colocation.

然後想知道您是否可以介紹潛在的天然氣工廠共置的前景。

What's the interest level in those assets from potential counterparties?

潛在交易對手對這些資產的興趣程度如何？

How do you see the size of the opportunity within your fleet?

您如何看待您的車隊所蘊藏的機會規模？

So David, you guys have heard a lot from me.

大衛，你們已經聽到我說了很多話了。

I'm going to turn this over to Stacey Dore who's been leading this effort.

我將把這個任務交給領導這項工作的史黛西·多爾 (Stacey Dore)。

You've heard from her before on previous calls.

您之前在通話中已經聽過她的消息。

And I'd like for her to give you a sense of the variation of the models we're talking about with gas plants, so you have a sense of how we're attacking it.

我希望她能讓您了解我們所討論的天然氣工廠模型的變化，這樣您就能了解我們如何攻克這個難題。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

David, so I think we talked a little bit on the previous call about the fact that we are seeing interest in our existing gas sites, primarily from the data center developers at this point.

大衛，我想我們在之前的電話會議上談到了這樣一個事實：我們看到了對我們現有天然氣站點的興趣，主要是來自資料中心開發商的興趣。

And I think there are a variety of ways to arrange those deals.

我認為有多種方式來安排這些交易。

Typically, you're going to need a grid connection at a gas plant.

通常，您需要在天然氣廠建立電網連接。

So you're going to have to go through the same regulatory approval process that you would even for a front-of-the-meter interconnection.

因此，您必須經過與電網側互連相同的監管審批流程。

So that adds some complexity and time.

所以這增加了一些複雜性和時間。

You probably need to be able to add some, maybe batteries and other backup gen to replicate the reliability that the customers need.

您可能需要添加一些電池和其他備用發電機來複製客戶所需的可靠性。

And a lot of our gas sites don't have quite as much land associated with them as say, a nuclear site.

而且我們的許多天然氣設施所佔土地面積不如核電廠那麼多。

So you have the challenge of thinking about where the data center will be built.

因此，您面臨的挑戰是思考資料中心建在何處。

Having said that, we're progressing a lot of those conversations on a handful of our sites in detail, working on agreements to bring those projects to fruition.

話雖如此，我們正在一些網站上詳細地推進大量此類對話，並努力達成協議以使這些項目取得成果。

And in addition to that, we are in a number of conversations about building new gas for data centers as well with and without grid connections and in various markets.

除此之外，我們還在就為資料中心建造新的天然氣管道（無論是否連接電網）以及在不同的市場進行討論。

So we have a number of conversations going on that are at the papering stage.

因此，我們正在進行一些處於書面階段的對話。

And as Jim referenced earlier, those agreements can be complex, but we are optimistic about our ability to bring those projects to a close.

正如吉姆之前提到的，這些協議可能很複雜，但我們對完成這些項目的能力充滿信心。

Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

沙利文（Michael Sullivan），沃爾夫研究公司。

I wanted to just ask on the forward outlook and maybe why the decision to continue to mark off of November curves?

我只是想問一下未來的前景，以及為什麼決定繼續標記十一月的曲線？

And then when you talk about the certainty needed for a 2026 to give a formal range there, is it more so you need to see the auction result or just more clarity on the rules and parameters?

然後，當您談到 2026 年需要確定一個正式的範圍時，您是否更需要看到拍賣結果，還是只是需要更清楚地了解規則和參數？

Yes, Michael, I'll start and I'll ask Kris to provide some input.

是的，邁克爾，我先開始，然後我會請克里斯提供一些意見。

But when we say $6 billion plus, and I think I toned it in my remarks, we're very confident about $6 billion.

但是當我們說 60 億美元以上時，我想我在我的演講中已經強調過這一點，我們對 60 億美元非常有信心。

And so there's ranges around that.

因此，這周圍有一個範圍。

The issue that we have is that because we don't have the auction clear and the parameters aren't set yet, and we're not fully hedged, whatever next bump we give you -- or the market, I should say, they're going to be asking for the range around that, and we really want to be in the process of giving the next year guidance on our call that we have in the third quarter.

我們面臨的問題是，由於拍賣尚未明確，參數也尚未設定，而且我們尚未完全對沖，無論我們給您帶來什麼下一個衝擊 - 或者我應該說，市場都會要求圍繞該範圍，我們真的希望在第三季度的電話會議上給出明年的指導。

And I think you can assume that the earnings power of the business looks much stronger than the $6 billion plus for 2026.

我認為你可以假設該企業的獲利能力看起來比 2026 年的 60 億美元以上要強得多。

And we don't see that tailing off in '27 and '28.

而且我們並未看到這種趨勢在27年和28年有所減弱。

So I'm going to ask Kris to provide his color on this.

所以我要請克里斯對此提供他的看法。

But I think Michael, it's really more about what's the right cadence for providing the updates, not simply there are a couple of variables moving around, but Kris?

但我認為，邁克爾，這實際上更重要的是提供更新的正確節奏，而不僅僅是幾個變數在移動，但克里斯？

Yes, I agree.

是的，我同意。

I think it's the cadence and it's also -- we continue -- there are some variables that we're waiting on.

我認為這是節奏，而且——我們繼續——我們正在等待一些變數。

You mentioned the capacity auction.

您提到了容量拍賣。

We still -- even though we're 80% hedged in 2026, that leaves approximately 45 terawatt hours of generation that's open.

儘管我們在 2026 年的對沖率為 80%，但仍有大約 45 太瓦時的發電量可用。

And so I think as we continue to hedge and we get some more clarity on the auction parameters, later this year, we'll be in a position.

因此，我認為，隨著我們繼續對沖並對拍賣參數獲得更多清晰度，今年晚些時候，我們將處於有利位置。

As Jim said, once we start moving the number, then we get into ranges.

正如吉姆所說，一旦我們開始移動數字，我們就會進入範圍。

And so we're hesitant to do that at this time.

因此我們目前還不太願意這麼做。

As for the curves, I think you'll see that historically, as we reaffirmed guidance, we haven't updated the -- we say that it's still based on the curves because we're reaffirming the guidance that we gave before.

至於曲線，我想你會看到，從歷史上看，當我們重申指導時，我們並沒有更新 - 我們說它仍然基於曲線，因為我們正在重申我們之前給出的指導。

But you can assume that we have considered changes in curves and all the factors that go into it when we go ahead and reaffirm.

但是你可以假設我們在繼續並重申時已經考慮了曲線的變化和所有相關因素。

It's typically -- I mean, this is obviously early in the year, and we don't typically move guidance at this point.

這很典型——我的意思是，這顯然是在年初，我們通常不會在此時改變指導。

So we'll wait until later in the year to adjust guidance.

因此我們將等到今年稍後再調整指導。

But I wouldn't read into the fact that we're still basing in on November 4 curves, where we're certainly to get to the reaffirming stage, thinking about all the puts and takes that have happened since we put out that guidance.

但我不會認為我們仍然以 11 月 4 日的曲線為基礎，我們肯定會進入重申階段，思考自我們發布該指引以來發生的所有變化。

Okay.

好的。

Appreciate the color there.

欣賞那裡的色彩。

And then kind of related to that, but more on the policy side, 2 questions.

然後有點與此相關，但更多的是在政策方面，有兩個問題。

I guess, what should we think about the likelihood of the cap floor proposal passing for the capacity auction?

我想，我們該如何看待容量拍賣中上限提案通過的可能性呢？

And then in Texas, I mean, you talked about customers having choices and options and the like.

然後在德克薩斯州，我的意思是，你談到了顧客擁有的選擇和選項等等。

Is there any particular provision in SB-6 as it stands that you think would push them away from Texas?

您認為 SB-6 中是否存在任何特定規定可以將他們趕出德州？

Yes, Michael, great questions.

是的，邁克爾，問題問得真好。

On the first, I think we feel the cap and floor is likely to be approved.

首先，我認為我們的上限和下限很可能會獲得批准。

We've seen, obviously, stakeholders weigh in.

顯然，我們已經看到利害關係人的參與。

We've seen IMM comment.

我們已經看到了IMM的評論。

So I think that's likely for the next 2 auctions.

所以我認為接下來的兩次拍賣很可能就會如此。

And I think that, that brings some of the volatility around the marketplace, which, as you've seen, we've had low clearance for the last 3 auctions until this most recent one, and then that's the only one that makes the news.

我認為這給市場帶來了一些波動，正如你所看到的，在過去的三次拍賣中，我們的清盤率一直很低，直到最近這次拍賣，這是唯一一次登上新聞的拍賣。

The low clears were not newsworthy, but they were having real impacts on bringing capacity and asset retirements.

低清理量並不具有新聞價值，但它們對提高產能和資產退役產生了實際影響。

On Texas, yes, there are things in SB-6 that are certainly helpful for the marketplace.

關於德州，SB-6 中的一些內容確實對市場有幫助。

The idea that we need to understand what's really in the interconnect queue from a load standpoint and maybe raising the bar so that we get more clarity about the load forecast.

我們需要從負載的角度了解互連隊列中的真實情況，並可能提高標準，以便我們更清楚地了解負載預測。

If it's a really low bar and folks are worried that we're going to see the grid double by 2030, it causes concern when the next deal gets announced for a data center because the view is, is that we need to solve all the way up to 150 gigawatts.

如果這個標準真的很低，人們擔心到 2030 年電網容量將翻一番，那麼在宣布下一個資料中心交易時就會引起擔憂，因為人們的觀點是，我們需要解決高達 150 千兆瓦的問題。

We have not -- that has not been our view.

我們沒有──這不是我們的觀點。

You've seen us for many quarters suggest that, that the low growth, while robust is not a double-digit CAGR on peak demand each year.

您已經看到我們已經連續多個季度表明，雖然成長強勁，但低成長並不代表每年高峰需求的複合年增長率達到兩位數。

We see it more in the 3% to 5% peak demand range.

我們在 3% 到 5% 的尖峰需求範圍內看到更多這種情況。

So bringing clarity to that and getting a load forecast, I think, will help policymakers who are trying to figure out how big of a grid am I solving for.

因此，我認為，明確這一點並進行負載預測將有助於政策制定者弄清楚要解決多大電網的問題。

And frankly, the Talen-Amazon deal, what it really did -- because that data center could be front-of-the-meter, it's still the same load as it would be if it's sitting next to a new plant.

坦白說，Talen 與亞馬遜的交易真正起到了作用——因為該資料中心可以位於電錶前端，所以它的負載仍然與位於新工廠旁邊的負載相同。

It just catalyzes the conversation on resource adequacy.

它只是催化了有關資源充足性的討論。

It really wasn't about colocation, and there's always going to be a question about is there a transmission charge that should be paid or not.

這實際上與主機託管無關，而且總是會存在是否應該支付傳輸費的問題。

Setting that aside, the concern was, do we have a resource adequacy issue.

除此之外，令人擔憂的是，我們是否有資源充足的問題。

And that's what a large colocation deal really brought to light.

這就是大型主機代管交易真正揭示的真相。

So in Senate Bill 6, part of how they're looking to solve that is to put requirements on customers larger than 75 megawatts to shed load during critical peak hours, which we agree with.

因此，在參議院第 6 號法案中，他們尋求解決這一問題的部分方法是要求超過 75 兆瓦的客戶在關鍵高峰時段減少負荷，我們對此表示同意。

And we think the customers that we're talking to are preparing and their designs to be able to do that.

我們認為，我們正在交談的客戶正在做好準備，他們的設計也能夠做到這一點。

But I think when you get to something like a remote disconnect switch, that's unusual and would only exist for these customers.

但我認為，當你使用像遠端斷開開關這樣的東西時，這是不尋常的，並且只會存在於這些客戶中。

And that's something that gives them pause because they're going to spend tens of billions of dollars and they need to know that they're in control of those assets, and they're more than willing to work as we are with the policymakers to give them comfort that with notice, look, these weather events, they do give you some notice.

這讓他們停下來思考，因為他們將花費數百億美元，他們需要知道他們是否能夠控制這些資產，他們也非常願意像我們一樣與政策制定者合作，讓他們放心，只要通知他們，你看，這些天氣事件他們確實會提前通知你。

So all we really need to do is get to some adequate notice and we can move forward.

因此，我們真正需要做的就是獲得足夠的重視，然後我們就可以繼續前進。

The final one is the transmission charges.

最後一個是傳輸費用。

We just need clarity on them.

我們只是需要弄清楚這些問題。

They just want to know, are they going to get something that's commensurate with the transmission and grid utilization.

他們只是想知道，他們是否會獲得與傳輸和電網利用率相稱的東西。

There's a revisiting potentially of the 4 coincident peak methodology.

可能需要重新審視 4 個重合峰方法。

That probably does need revisiting because some customers are able to either reduce their load or turn on back up and minimize their transmission exposure, which means those costs go to other customers, including potentially residential customers.

這可能確實需要重新考慮，因為一些客戶能夠減少負載或啟動備份並儘量減少傳輸風險，這意味著這些成本將轉嫁給其他客戶，包括潛在的住宅客戶。

And since we serve nearly 5 million customers, we're sensitive to that as well.

由於我們為近 500 萬客戶提供服務，因此我們對此也很敏感。

So there is a lot in that bill.

該法案包含許多內容。

There's a hearing going on today about it.

今天將就此事舉行聽證會。

They're going to get a lot of feedback.

他們將會收到很多回饋。

But I would say clarity is what we need.

但我想說我們需要的是清晰度。

And then this disconnect, this remote disconnect, I'd say, is one of the things that we hear from the customer side is very concerning as they're not seeing that specific approach in other markets right now.

然後我想說，這種斷開連接，這種遠端斷開連接，是我們從客戶那裡聽到的非常令人擔憂的事情之一，因為他們目前在其他市場沒有看到這種特定的方法。

Agnieszka Storozynski, Seaport.

阿格涅什卡·斯托羅津斯基 (Agnieszka Storozynski) 港。

So maybe first -- I mean just taking a step back.

所以也許首先——我的意思是退一步。

So it doesn't sound like gas deals are waiting for any regulatory clarity.

因此，聽起來天然氣交易並不像在等待監管方面的明確規定。

It's just more about contractual arrangements.

這僅與合約安排有關。

So why haven't we heard of any gas deals?

那為什麼我們沒有聽說任何天然氣交易呢？

Is it that -- you mentioned in the past some sort of portfolio deals.

是不是——您過去曾提到某種投資組合交易。

Are they associated with some of the nuclear deals that you're working on, and that's why we haven't heard of those?

它們是否與您正在談判的一些核協議有關，這就是為什麼我們沒有聽說過這些協議？

Or is there some reluctance either by the offtakers or you to contract these gas plants at current terms or the terms that they are offering?

或者，承購商或您是否不願意按照現行條款或他們提供的條款簽訂這些天然氣廠的合約？

Angie, this is Stacey.

安吉，這是史黛西。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I would say that the gas deals that we're working on, the colocation deals with existing assets are waiting on regulatory clarity as well.

我想說的是，我們正在進行的天然氣交易、現有資產的主機託管交易也在等​​待監管部門的明確性。

I mean the same uncertainty that is applying to behind-the-meter or co-located deals in PJM, for example, with the FERC proceedings, would apply whether the asset is nuclear or gas.

我的意思是，無論資產是核能還是天然氣，在 PJM 的電錶後或共置交易（例如 FERC 程序）中都存在同樣的不確定性。

Because the question really that's being asked is, what is the transmission charge, if any, that has to be paid on those deals.

因為真正要問的問題是，這些交易中需要支付的傳輸費是多少（如果有的話）。

So PJM's willingness to move forward with necessary study agreements, for example, applies whether it's gas or nuclear.

因此，PJM 願意推進必要的研究協議，無論是天然氣還是核能。

Similarly, in Texas with SB-6, all the provisions in that bill that could affect co-located loads would apply whether the asset is gas or nuclear.

類似地，在德州的 SB-6 法案中，所有可能影響共置負載的條款都將適用，無論資產是天然氣還是核能。

So I do think the same regulatory clarity that Jim referenced that we need and customers need to move forward on any co-location with existing, with new, if it's grid connected, all of that will be necessary for these deals to ultimately be understood well.

因此，我確實認為，我們和客戶都需要像吉姆提到的那樣，在與現有的、新的、與電網連接的共置項目上取得進展，所有這些都是最終讓這些交易得到很好理解所必需的。

And in terms of the portfolio approach, that I mentioned on the last call, we are still in discussions with a number of parties, including some financial backers and capital providers about those kinds of approaches.

關於我在上次電話會議上提到的投資組合方法，我們仍在與多方討論此類方法，包括一些財務支持者和資本提供者。

I would not say that those conversations is holding up particular deals because we also have discussions about specific sites that continue on in parallel.

我不會說這些對話阻礙了特定的交易，因為我們還在同時進行有關特定網站的討論。

And so all of those conversations continue on a daily basis in detail with a lot of work being done in terms of -- on the customer side as well as our side in understanding the physical attributes of those projects, the regulatory time line as well as the commercial terms.

因此，所有這些對話都會每天詳細地進行，客戶方和我們方都在做大量工作，以了解這些項目的實體屬性、監管時間表以及商業條款。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the nuclear deals, so it was my understanding in the past that as long as at least directionally, you understand how to structure these deals, you might proceed with them even before we have rules in place if only because, for example, there would be some time lag between any potential deal announcement and when you would be asking FERC for any ISA amendments?

然後關於核協議，我過去的理解是，只要至少在方向上，你了解如何構建這些交易，你可能在我們制定規則之前就繼續進行這些交易，只是因為，例如，在任何潛在交易公告和你要求聯邦能源管理委員會對 ISA 進行任何修訂之間會有一些時間差？

Has that changed this approach?

這是否改變了這種方法？

Do we -- are we waiting both in Texas and FERC for the final rules to be passed before any deals can be announced?

我們是否要等待德克薩斯州和聯邦能源管理委員會通過最終規則後才能宣布任何交易？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Angie.

謝謝，安吉。

We are not waiting necessarily on full clarity from either FERC or Texas before we announced the deal.

在宣布這項交易之前，我們並不一定需要等待聯邦能源管理委員會或德州的明確答覆。

Having said that, while all of these proceedings are going on in the background, it raises questions in the commercial discussions about things like who's going to be taking the risk on a change of law.

話雖如此，雖然所有這些程序都在幕後進行，但它在商業討論中引發了一些問題，例如誰將承擔法律變更的風險。

You always have change of law provisions in contracts that you have to negotiate.

您必須協商的合約中總會有法律變更條款。

But when you're in the middle of actual legal proceedings that are contemplating changes in law, it just heightens the discussion around those kinds of terms.

但當你處於實際的法律訴訟之中並考慮修改法律時，圍繞此類條款的討論就會更加激烈。

And in addition to that, I think we've referenced before that we do have what we believe to be a final necessary study agreement at Beaver Valley, and we are continuing to progress that project, again, on the ground and with customers.

除此之外，我想我們之前提到過，我們確實與 Beaver Valley 達成了一項最終必要的研究協議，我們將繼續在現場和客戶一起推進該專案。

But I believe that PJM does feel that they need some additional clarity from FERC to actually file an amended ISA.

但我相信 PJM 確實認為他們需要 FERC 的額外澄清才能真正提交修訂後的 ISA。

Having said that, that doesn't prevent us from continuing to work both with PJM, the customers that we're talking to about Beaver Valley and then just with our own team on doing the development work that has to be done to directly connect a data center to Beaver Valley or Comanche Peak.

話雖如此，但這並不妨礙我們繼續與 PJM（我們正在就 Beaver Valley 進行談判的客戶）合作，然後與我們自己的團隊一起完成將資料中心直接連接到 Beaver Valley 或 Comanche Peak 所需的開發工作。

So all of that work continues on.

所以所有這些工作都將繼續進行。

There is no pause.

沒有停頓。

There is no waiting until we have an absolute answer.

我們無法等待，直到得到絕對的答案。

But having said that, the regulatory process does affect the discussions.

但話雖如此，監管過程確實會影響討論。

And I think we're -- both sides, both us and the customers are trying to work through that and figure out how we can contract around some of the unanswered questions.

我認為雙方，包括我們自己和客戶，都在努力解決這個問題，並想辦法解決一些尚未解答的問題。

And Angie, what I'd like to add -- thank you, Stacey, is underpinning some of the reaction to the Amazon-Talen deal and even the filing of SB-6 and the hearing.

安吉，我想補充的是——謝謝你，史黛西，這支撐了人們對亞馬遜-Talen 交易的一些反應，甚至對 SB-6 的提交和聽證會的反應。

It's still a view that co-locating load with a plant is a concern for the grid, but having an equal amount of loads sitting one mile down the road from the plant is not a concern for the grid.

人們仍然認為，將負載與電廠放在一起是電網關心的問題，但將等量的負載放在距離電廠一英里的地方並不是電網關心的問題。

In physics, those are going to be the same supply-demand and reliability concerns either way, and we need to solve for the supply-demand in both cases.

從物理學角度來看，無論如何，這些都是相同的供需和可靠性問題，我們需要在兩種情況下解決供需問題。

But I do believe that the customers are sensitive that they want to be viewed as I'm bringing economic development, I'm bringing jobs, I'm bringing a capability that we think net multiple states want to be a leader in.

但我確實相信客戶很敏感，他們希望被視為我帶來了經濟發展，帶來了就業機會，帶來了我們認為多個州都想成為領導者的能力。

So they want to be welcomed in that context.

因此他們希望在這種環境下受到歡迎。

The fastest speed to market are the co-location deals.

上市速度最快的是主機託管交易。

But if you read the commentary and you read the concerns, there are views that, that is somehow taking megawatts off the grid.

但如果你讀過評論並了解人們的擔憂，你會發現有觀點認為，這在某種程度上是從電網中抽走兆瓦電力。

But the same size data center one mile down the road is not taking megawatts off the grid.

但距離道路一英里處同樣規模的資料中心卻不會從電網中消耗兆瓦電力。

That fundamental difference of view drives a lot of the discussion, and it's our job, along with other stakeholders in the process, to be as clear as we can be about what the supply-demand effects are, load is load and we need to have adequate supply.

這種根本的觀點分歧引發了很多討論，我們的工作以及過程中的其他利益相關者的工作就是盡可能清楚地了解供需效應是什麼，負荷就是負荷，我們需要有充足的供應。

The colocation of that does not change that fundamental supply-demand balance.

這種共置並不會改變根本的供需平衡。

But I think it still is an awareness that the customers have right now that we need to get that thought more clearly articulated in the way we inform policymakers and engage with them so that those kinds of deals are viewed as actually net beneficial because they will likely result in less aggregate transmission build out just to put something in front-of-the-meter.

但我認為，客戶現在仍然意識到，我們需要在向政策制定者和與他們接觸的方式中更清楚地表達這種想法，以便這些交易被視為真正的淨收益，因為它們可能會導致減少總輸電建設，而這只是為了在電錶前安裝一些東西。

And that could get uplifted to all customers.

這可以惠及所有客戶。

So there's a discussion here about the pros and the cons, and both are going to be on the grid.

因此這裡討論了優點和缺點，並且兩者都將納入討論範圍。

We've said that multiple times.

我們已經說過多次了。

There's going to be a lot.

將會有很多。

That's going to be done in front-of-the-meter regardless.

不管怎樣，這都將在電錶前完成。

And there should be some -- we think there should be a fair amount done through colocation because it's efficient and effective.

而且應該有一些——我們認為應該透過主機託管來完成相當多的工作，因為它是高效且有效。

Okay.

好的。

It's just that I think we would have hoped that this discussion has already taken place, given that it's been almost exactly 12 months since the Susquehanna deal was announced now.

我只是認為我們希望這次討論已經開始，因為距離 Susquehanna 交易宣布已經過去了整整 12 個月。

So I understand that this is somewhat of a contentious topic, but still time is of the essence, as you know.

因此我明白這是一個有爭議的話題，但正如你所知，時間仍然至關重要。

Real quick, Angie.

非常快，安吉。

We share your view, 100%.

我們完全同意您的觀點。

And partly our business model, as you know, is no matter what is getting built out on the grid, whether it's front-of-the-meter and it's done by the hyperscalers, through colo providers, oil and gas electrification, our assets are positioned to see benefit from demand growth.

如您所知，我們的商業模式是，無論電網上建造什麼，無論是電錶前端，還是由超大規模企業、透過託管供應商、石油和天然氣電氣化完成，我們的資產都能從需求成長中獲益。

In addition, we'd like to capture this value if we can capture it.

此外，如果我們能夠捕獲這個值的話，我們也希望捕獲它。

If for some reason, this gets delayed or it's just difficult to capture, we're going to capture a lot of value with our business the way it's set up today because we are net long generation beyond our retail requirements.

如果由於某種原因，這被延遲或難以捕捉，我們將按照今天建立的業務方式捕捉大量價值，因為我們的淨長期發電量超出了我們的零售需求。

And so I think we're set up well for that, but we agree with you.

所以我認為我們已經為此做好了準備，但我們同意你的看法。

We thought we'd be further along as an industry in some of the fundamentals on this discussion, but we aren't yet and we're going to have to keep working it.

我們原以為，作為一個行業，我們會在這次討論的一些基本問題上取得更大進步，但目前還沒有，我們必須繼續努力。

Stacey?

史黛西？

Yes, Angie, I would just add too that and I thought it was interesting that in the FERC 206 order that came out last week, which is setting this co-location topic for finally on a schedule, which we're optimistic about, and we think is a positive step forward, and we hope to have some clarity from FERC in the next 5 to 6 months on that.

是的，安吉，我只想補充一點，我認為有趣的是，在上週發布的 FERC 206 命令中，該命令最終將這個共置主題列入了時間表，我們對此感到樂觀，我們認為這是一個積極的進步，我們希望 FERC 能在未來 5 到 6 個月內對此做出一些明確說明。

And I appreciate it.

我對此表示感謝。

We appreciate the commissioner's focus on urgency, because to your point, you would -- we would have hoped we would have figured out this conversation by now because at the end of the day, we've all said, we -- Vistra, has said, the customers have said, that we believe that these colocated loads should pay some aspect of grid charges for whatever services they're using, but that can be different based on the configuration of a particular project, and that needs to be taken into account.

我們感謝專員對緊迫性的關注，因為就您的觀點而言，我們希望現在我們已經弄清楚了這一對話，因為歸根結底，我們都說過，我們——Vistra 說過，客戶也說過，我們認為這些共置負載應該為他們所使用的任何服務支付一定程度的電網費用，但這可能會根據特定項目的配置而有所不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到不同，這一點需要考慮到。

And I think FERC is finally setting up a process to consider that.

我認為聯邦能源管理委員會最終正在建立一個流程來考慮這個問題。

They did recognize in the order of this exact point that Jim is making and we briefed to this point ourselves, which is that there is no resource adequacy difference between front-of-the-meter load and behind-the-meter load.

他們確實認識到了吉姆提出的這個確切觀點的順序，我們自己也對這一點進行了簡要介紹，即電錶前負載和電錶後負載之間沒有資源充足性差異。

They both -- a 500-megawatt data center uses 500 megawatts of power, whether it's behind-the-meter or in front-of-the-meter.

兩者皆是——一個 500 兆瓦的資料中心使用 500 兆瓦的電力，無論是在電錶後還是在電錶前。

So I think FERC recognized the argument that there is no resource adequacy difference.

因此我認為 FERC 承認資源充足性沒有差異這一論點。

At the same time, they pointed out that what they believe policymakers are concerned about is the timing of co-located load bringing the load faster than what is happening in front-of-the-meter.

同時，他們指出，他們認為政策制定者擔心的是共置負載帶來負載的時間比電錶前發生負載的速度更快。

And that's exactly why the customers are interested in it.

這正是客戶對此感興趣的原因。

So that's the disconnect that we have to solve is the customers want to get online fast, they're willing to pay for that in a behind-the-meter configuration.

所以，我們必須解決的問題是，客戶希望快速上網，他們願意為此支付電錶後配置的費用。

At the same time, policymakers are concerned about resource adequacy, and they are concerned that allowing this colocation will bring resources on -- load on faster than the utilities can get it on front-of-the-meter.

同時，政策制定者擔心資源充足性，他們擔心允許這種共置會帶來資源的加載速度比公用事業在電錶前端獲取資源的速度更快。

And I think we all owe it to the customers and to economic development and to what's best for the national interest to figure that out and to make sure that we have the appropriate procedures to allow colocation.

我認為，我們所有人都應該為客戶、為經濟發展、為國家利益著想，弄清楚這一點，並確保我們有適當的程序來實現主機託管。

And the last thing I'd say is that FERC's order -- FERC's press release on the order was also positive in the sense that it pointed out that the purpose of that 206 proceeding is to decide how to appropriately allow colocation.

我最後要說的是，聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 的命令——聯邦能源管理委員會關於該命令的新聞稿也是積極的，因為它指出 206 號程序的目的是決定如何適當地允許主機託管。

So that was definitive in our view that FERC knows and wants these colocation projects to move forward, and we just need to figure out what the rules of the road are.

因此，我們明確地認為，聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 了解並希望這些主機託管專案能夠向前推進，我們只需要弄清楚具體規則是什麼。

Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

Durgesh Chopra，Evercore ISI。

First, a quick clarification.

首先，快速澄清一下。

I think, Kris, you mentioned the $500 million associated with Moss Landing.

克里斯，我想你提到了與莫斯登陸相關的 5 億美元。

What is that exactly?

那到底是什麼？

Is that the -- is that the insurance coverage?

這就是──這就是保險範圍嗎？

Is that the cash payments?

是現金支付嗎？

What were you referring to there?

您剛才指的是什麼？

Yes, the $500 million, we have an insurance policy that covers the Moss Landing battery assets and it's got a limit of $500 million.

是的，這 5 億美元，我們有一份涵蓋 Moss Landing 電池資產的保險單，保額為 5 億美元。

And our expectation at this point is that we would receive up to that $500 million limit on that insurance policy.

我們目前的預期是，我們將獲得該保單最高 5 億美元的限額。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

One of the news outlets kind of was calling it as the cash payout from that.

其中一個新聞媒體稱之為現金賠償。

So I just wanted to clarify that.

所以我只是想澄清這一點。

Okay.

好的。

So that's the insurance policy.

這就是保險單。

Okay.

好的。

Then just -- Jim, just one thing I wanted to kind of get your thoughts on is assuming that we get clarity from Texas, from FERC on colocation, its smooth selling going forward, what are the things you mentioned is the disconnect between how you're seeing forward prices versus how your customers are seeing forward prices?

然後只是 - 吉姆，我只想聽聽你的想法，假設我們從德克薩斯州、聯邦能源管理委員會那裡得到了關於主機託管的明確信息，它的銷售前景順利，你提到的是什麼，你看到的遠期價格與你的客戶看到的遠期價格之間的脫節？

And obviously, you've been prudent as you signed these long-term contracts.

顯然，您在簽署這些長期合約時非常謹慎。

How do you get around that?

您如何解決這個問題？

So assuming just fast forward to second half, you have all the clarity in the world, but there's still a disconnect between where forward ERCOT prices might be in '28, '29?

因此，假設快轉到下半年，你就會對一切瞭如指掌，但 28 年和 29 年 ERCOT 未來價格之間仍然存在差距？

What would you think of it to be versus what your customers, how do you get around that?

與您的客戶相比，您認為情況如何？

Sure.

當然。

Well, first of all, I don't think there's a single clearing price for these deals like there is sort of like a real-time price of power.

首先，我認為這些交易沒有單一的清算價格，就像即時電價一樣。

So I think it gets to the site characteristics, the nature of that transaction with respect to, say, speed to market and any other benefits as Stacey laid out any risk sharing and things that we're bringing to the table as part of the structure.

因此，我認為這涉及場地特徵、交易的性質，例如上市速度和任何其他好處，正如 Stacey 列出的任何風險分擔以及我們作為結構的一部分提出來的事情。

So there are a lot of customers that we talk to, some are in better shape during certain time periods like the next 5-year horizon.

我們與許多客戶進行交流，發現有些客戶在某些特定時期（例如未來 5 年內）的狀況會更好。

And so depending on different customers' motivation, where in the country they want to be, the speed with which they want to get there, that's why this is actually part a time-consuming exercise is it's really all one-to-one conversations that you have to have.

因此，根據不同客戶的動機、他們想要去哪個國家、他們想要以多快的速度到達那裡，這實際上是一項耗時的活動，因為你實際上必須進行一對一的對話。

There isn't really an auction for all of this to happen in clear.

實際上，沒有一場拍賣可以讓這一切清晰地發生。

But I do think it's going to be a spectrum and speed does matter, not only the speed to actually bring these assets online, but in these conversations and getting to term sheets.

但我確實認為這將是一個範圍，速度確實很重要，不僅是將這些資產實際上線的速度，而且還有這些對話和獲得條款清單的速度。

Our -- we're pretty conservative, Durgesh, and that's my fault.

我們──我們相當保守，杜爾格甚，這是我的錯。

But when things are real, they're real and they'll be announced.

但當事情是真實的時候，它們就是真實的，而且會被宣布。

And it's just hard to see underneath the hood because you're not here to see what we're doing and the kinds of activity that's actually happening on a daily basis and the engagement we're having, and I know that's frustrating for folks.

而且很難看清內部情況，因為你無法看到我們在做什麼、每天實際發生的活動類型以及我們的參與情況，我知道這讓人們感到沮喪。

But I'd like to think that what we have focused on for many years, and we'll continue to do so is we call it putting points on the board, which is where you know you have something definitive, and we can move forward and give our shareholders confidence.

但我想，我們多年來一直關注的重點是，我們將繼續這樣做，我們稱之為向董事會提出要點，這讓你知道你有明確的結論，我們可以繼續前進，並給予股東信心。

And that's just not where we are yet on these deals, but we're working hard to get there.

雖然我們在這些交易中還沒有達到這個程度，但我們正在努力實現這個目標。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給吉姆·伯克，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining. 2024 was a very strong year, and I really want to thank our team for their continued execution and service to our customers and communities.

感謝大家的加入。 2024 年是非常強勁的一年，我真的要感謝我們的團隊為我們的客戶和社區持續執行和服務。

Some of that can get lost as we talk about just what's next in the horizon, but this is a -- this was a really strong year and folks deserve the congratulations for their execution.

當我們談論未來的發展時，有些觀點可能會被忽略，但今年確實是強勁的一年，大家的表現值得祝賀。

And they're also signed up for a strong 2025 and beyond.

他們也簽署了2025年及以後的強勁發展計畫。

And I expect we're going to create value in a variety of ways as demand continues to accelerate.

我希望隨著需求不斷加速成長，我們將透過各種方式創造價值。

I know we're going to see a lot of you on the road, and we hope that we get to see you in person soon.

我知道我們會在路上經常見到你們，我們希望很快就能親自見到你們。

Thanks for joining, and have a great day.

感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。