Vistra Corp (VST) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Vistra First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加瑞致達 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Micek。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our first quarter 2024 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

早安，感謝大家參加瑞致達的投資人網路廣播，討論我們 2024 年第一季的業績。我們今天的討論將透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。在那裡，您還可以找到今天的投資者演示和收益發布的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vista's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天主持電話會議的是 Vista 總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke；以及瑞致達執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。瑞致達其他高階主管將與他們一起在今天電話會議的第二部分中根據需要回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation, and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。瑞致達網站投資者關係部分的收益報告和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為僅截至今天才合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報幻燈片2 中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非公認會計準則的使用財務措施。

I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke)。

Thank you, Eric. I appreciate all of you taking the time to join our first quarter 2024 results call. This call is taking place in conjunction with a major milestone for Vistra, namely the first day of inclusion of our stock in the S&P 500. I want to recognize the hard work of our Vistra team and the support and patience exhibited by our shareholders as this is a result of both strong execution over time, bolstered by improving market dynamics in the power sector. We are pleased to be included in the index and excited about the future prospects for Vistra and its stakeholders.

謝謝你，埃里克。感謝大家抽出寶貴時間參加我們的 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。這次電話會議是在瑞致達的一個重要里程碑之際舉行的，即我們的股票被納入標準普爾500 指數的第一天。和耐心表示認可。我們很高興被納入該指數，並對瑞致達及其利益相關者的未來前景感到興奮。

Turning to Slide 5. Before we cover the positive results for the quarter, it's worth noting that we see a significant increase in Vistra's long-term outlook. Our team has been hard at work to ensure Vistra's best positioned for the increasing power demand fundamentals while providing reliable, affordable and sustainable power to our customers.

轉向投影片 5。我們的團隊一直在努力確保瑞致達在不斷增長的電力需求基礎上處於最佳位置，同時為我們的客戶提供可靠、負擔得起和可持續的電力。

Continuing the theme of execution, our integration teams were hard at work during this quarter with the closing of our acquisition of Energy Harbor on March 1. We were ready on day 1 to unify under the Vistra name and welcome our new colleagues.

繼續執行的主題，我們的整合團隊在本季度努力工作，並於3 月1 日完成了對Energy Harbor 的收購。 。

The core theme throughout the integration process has been 1 team, and we believe that is crucial to a sustainable, high-performance organization. The sites are working closely with each other to share best practices and create a culture of continuous improvement. As a result, the teams identified the potential for several operational and performance improvements throughout the nuclear fleet.

整個整合過程的核心主題是團隊，我們相信這對於可持續、高績效的組織至關重要。這些站點相互密切合作，分享最佳實踐並創造持續改進的文化。結果，團隊確定了整個核子艦隊的多項營運和性能改進的潛力。

As Kris will cover later, including the expected financial benefits of these improvements and the additional synergies we've identified, we now expect the run rate adjusted EBITDA contribution from Energy Harbor to exceed $1.1 billion beginning in 2026.

正如克里斯稍後將介紹的那樣，包括這些改進的預期財務效益以及我們已經確定的額外協同效應，我們現在預計從 2026 年開始，能源港的運行率調整後 EBITDA 貢獻將超過 11 億美元。

Turning to the other key priorities. We continue to execute on our capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021. Since that time, we've returned to our investors approximately $4.6 billion, including $3.9 billion of share repurchases through May 3 of this year. We continue to view our shares as an attractive investment and expect to execute at least $2.25 billion of share repurchases throughout '24 and '25. Crucially, our balance sheet remains strong, enabling the ongoing capital return plan.

轉向其他關鍵優先事項。我們繼續執行 2021 年第四季實施的資本回報計畫。我們繼續將我們的股票視為一項有吸引力的投資，並預計在 2024 年和 25 年期間執行至少 22.5 億美元的股票回購。至關重要的是，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，有利於持續的資本回報計畫。

Our net leverage finished the quarter at approximately 3x, exceeding our expectations indicated on the previous quarter results call. We expect net leverage to be below 3x by year-end 2024. Our disciplined capital approach also enables us to invest in solar and energy storage growth that capitalizes on sites interconnects in the Vistra portfolio. Our Baldwin and Calpine sites where construction began earlier this year on paired solar energy storage facilities are good examples of this strategy, and we expect these to be online by the end of the year. Finally, we've completed our first nonrecourse financing in Vistra Zero, providing attractive capital for our growing portfolio of operating renewable assets.

本季結束時，我們的淨槓桿率約為 3 倍，超出了我們在上一季業績電話會議上所顯示的預期。我們預計到 2024 年底淨槓桿率將低於 3 倍。我們的鮑德溫和卡爾派恩站點於今年稍早開始建造配對太陽能儲存設施，這就是這項策略的好例子，我們預計這些設施將在今年年底上線。最後，我們完成了 Vistra Zero 的首筆無追索權融資，為我們不斷增長的營運再生資產組合提供有吸引力的資本。

Moving to Slide 6. We achieved ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $813 million, a 47% increase compared to the first quarter of 2023. As you can see, many of the themes contributing to results last year continued into the first quarter of this year. The first quarter of 2024 again reflected the benefits of our comprehensive hedging program as the warmest winter on record in the U.S. led to lower-than-expected cleared power prices across the country. Specifically, while power prices in the markets we serve cleared below $30 per megawatt hour on average for the first quarter, our first quarter results reflect an average realized power price of over $50 per megawatt hour.

轉向幻燈片6。 。 2024 年第一季再次體現了我們全面對沖計畫的好處，因為美國經歷了有史以來最溫暖的冬季，導致全國結算電價低於預期。具體來說，雖然我們服務的市場第一季的平均電價低於每兆瓦時 30 美元，但我們第一季的業績反映了平均已實現電價超過每兆瓦時 50 美元。

In these volatile weather environments, which included a winter event in mid-January and then mild weather in February and March, our generation team once again delivered with another strong quarter of commercial availability at approximately 98%. Being flexible with, not only daily operations, including ramping down when economics signal us to do so, but rescheduling planned outages to optimize opportunities enabled the business to deliver strong results.

在這些不穩定的天氣環境中，包括 1 月中旬的冬季事件以及 2 月和 3 月的溫和天氣，我們的發電團隊再次實現了另一個強勁的季度商業可用性，約 98%。不僅在日常營運方面保持靈活性，包括在經濟狀況表明我們需要這樣做時減少停機時間，而且還重新安排計劃內的停電以優化機會，使企業能夠取得強勁的業績。

Finally, the retail team delivered another positive quarter of customer count growth across our Texas and Midwest and Northeast geographies. With the acquisition of Energy Harbor now complete, we're initiating a guidance on a combined basis for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $4,550,000,000 to $5,050,000,000 and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth of $2,200,000,000 to $2,700,000,000. It's important to note that this guidance excludes any potential benefit from the nuclear production tax credit, or PTC, given the uncertainty around how it will be implemented when the regulations are issued later this year.

最後，零售團隊在德克薩斯州、中西部和東北部實現了另一個積極的季度客戶數量成長。隨著Energy Harbor 的收購現已完成，我們將針對持續營運調整後的EBITDA 為4,550,000,000 美元至5,050,000,000 美元以及持續運營調整後的自由現金流在增長前的2,200,000,000 美元以及持續運營調整後的自由現金流在增長前的2,200,000,000 美元以及持續運營調整後的自由現金流在增長前的2,200,000,000 美元以及持續運營調整後的自由現金流在增長前的2,200,000,000 美元的基礎上啟動。值得注意的是，鑑於今年稍後法規發佈時如何實施存在不確定性，該指南排除了核生產稅收抵免（PTC）的任何潛在好處。

However, based on where prices settled in the first quarter and the forward curves for the balance of the year, we believe the PTC could add a significant amount to our 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance range.

然而，根據第一季的價格結算情況和今年剩餘時間的遠期曲線，我們認為 PTC 可能會在我們 2024 年持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍上大幅增加。

Finally, you will note that the implied conversion rate from ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA to ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth for 2024 is below our stated target of 55% to 60%, primarily due to a couple of timing impacts. We expect to return to our target 55% to 60% range in 2025 and beyond.

最後，您會注意到，在2024 年成長之前，從持續經營調整後的EBITDA 到持續經營調整後的自由現金流的隱含轉換率低於我們規定的55% 至60% 的目標，這主要是由於一些時間影響。我們預計 2025 年及以後將恢復到 55% 至 60% 的目標範圍。

While we are not providing guidance to reflect specific ranges for Vistra Vision and Vistra Tradition, our view is that each is expected to contribute roughly half of our adjusted EBITDA over time. However, given the business mix and current capital structure, you can expect Vistra Vision will convert adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow before growth at a higher rate over time, roughly 60% to 65% compared to Vistra Tradition, which we expect to convert at a rate of approximately 50% to 55%.

雖然我們沒有提供反映 Vistra Vision 和 Vistra Tradition 的具體範圍的指導，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，兩者預計將貢獻我們調整後 EBITDA 的大約一半。然而，考慮到業務組合和當前的資本結構，您可以預期，Vistra Vision 將隨著時間的推移以更高的速度將調整後的EBITDA 轉換為增長前的自由現金流，與Vistra Tradition 相比約為60% 至65%，我們預期Vistra Tradition 的轉換率為比率約為50%至55%。

Turning to Slide 7. There has been much discussion in recent months about the substantial power demand growth forecast, including from the potential build-out of data centers and other sources of electricity demand. Third-party research indicates data center-related activity could approach 35 gigawatts of additional demand by 2030. However, our teams also see multiple additional potential drivers of demand in the geographies we serve. These drivers include: continued reshoring of industrial activity as evidenced by multiple large chip manufacturing site build-outs, partially due to the CHIPS Act; increased electrification of commercial, industrial, and residential load across the country, as evidenced by the expectation of approximately 20 gigawatts of additional power demand in West Texas by 2030; and strong population growth, particularly in the state of Texas, which has been steady at 1.5% to 2% per year.

轉向幻燈片 7。第三方研究表明，到 2030 年，資料中心相關活動的額外需求可能接近 35 吉瓦。這些驅動因素包括：工業活動持續回流，多個大型晶片製造基地的擴建證明了這一點，部分原因是《晶片法案》；全國商業、工業和住宅負荷的電氣化程度不斷提高，預計到 2030 年西德克薩斯州的電力需求將增加約 20 吉瓦；人口成長強勁，尤其是德州，每年穩定成長 1.5% 至 2%。

With these drivers, we see the potential demand outcome skewing higher, albeit with a wider range. In their most recent report, PJM's load growth expectations through 2030 doubled from their 2023 estimate. In Texas, recent reports from ERCOT suggest load growth from 2030 in a wide range from as low as 1.6% per year to as high as 6% growth per year or even higher if more than half of the large loads recently discussed to ERCOT actually materialize.

有了這些驅動因素，我們看到潛在的需求結果偏向更高，儘管範圍更廣。在他們最新的報告中，PJM 到 2030 年的負載成長預期是 2023 年預期的兩倍。在德克薩斯州，ERCOT 最近的報告表明，從2030 年起，負載增長範圍很廣，從低至每年1.6% 到高達每年6%，如果最近與ERCOT 討論的大負荷中有一半以上實際實現，則負載增長甚至更高。

The trailing 10 years has been approximately 2.5%, and that was before some of these more recent drivers of the Permian electrification, the CHIPS Act, and the data center demand. This increase in demand across the country will need to be served by an electric grid that will continue to see coal plant retirements in all markets. The Inflation Reduction Act will continue to incentivize wind, solar, and battery resources, and we will also need gas-fired generation to back up those intermittent sources.

過去 10 年的成長率約為 2.5%，而且是在二疊紀電氣化、CHIPS 法案和資料中心需求等近期驅動因素之前。全國範圍內需求的成長需要透過電網來滿足，而所有市場上的燃煤電廠將繼續退役。 《降低通貨膨脹法案》將繼續激勵風能、太陽能和電池資源，我們也需要燃氣發電來支持這些間歇性能源。

The new greenhouse gas rules issued from the EPA on April 25 are expected to make it more challenging to economically build baseload combined cycle gas turbine facilities. But we expect those rules to be litigated, and it's unclear what the final outcome will be.

EPA 於 4 月 25 日發布的新溫室氣體規則預計將使經濟地建造基荷聯合循環燃氣渦輪機設施變得更具挑戰性。但我們預計這些規則將會受到訴訟，目前還不清楚最終結果是什麼。

Natural gas peakers could be a solution that threads the needle of environmental rules and demand needs. In addition, it is likely that existing assets will need to run at higher capacity factors to meet overall annual energy needs as more coal retires. We see Vistra is well positioned for these trends, given our diversified portfolio of reliable and sustainable assets in growing markets.

天然氣調峰器可能是滿足環境規則和需求的解決方案。此外，隨著更多煤炭的退役，現有資產可能需要以更高的容量係數運作才能滿足年度整體能源需求。鑑於我們在不斷成長的市場中擁有可靠且可持續的多元化資產組合，我們認為瑞致達已為這些趨勢做好了準備。

As you can see on Slide 8, the forward curves have moved up considerably in both the Texas and PJM markets on the improved demand outlook, particularly on the longer end of the curve. As an example, ERCOT North around-the-clock fixed price forwards for calendar 2026 increased over $7 per megawatt hour or approximately 13% since we last provided guidance in November 2023.

正如您在投影片 8 中看到的那樣，由於需求前景改善，德州和 PJM 市場的遠期曲線均大幅上升，特別是在曲線較長的一端。例如，自我們上次於 2023 年 11 月提供指導以來，ERCOT North 2026 年的全天候固定遠期價格增加了每兆瓦時 7 美元以上，即約 13%。

For 2027 and 2028, the increases were even more significant. In the past, we've commented that the backwardation and forward curves did not reflect the tighter grid conditions that we expected to result from continued load growth and planned thermal asset retirements.

2027 年及 2028 年，增幅更為顯著。過去，我們曾評論說，現貨溢價和遠期曲線並未反映出我們預期因持續負載成長和計劃的熱資產退役而導致的更緊張的電網狀況。

With the recent improvement in both forward power prices and some additional market interest in transacting further out on the curve, we believe the market is beginning to recognize these dynamics. As I stated at the beginning of the call, our integrated business model, which combines increasingly critical dispatchable generation assets with a premier retail business, positions us well to create long-term value in this dynamic and growing market.

隨著近期遠期電價的改善以及市場對進一步交易的興趣增加，我們相信市場開始認識到這些動態。正如我在電話會議開始時所說，我們的綜合業務模式將日益重要的可調度發電資產與一流的零售業務相結合，使我們能夠在這個充滿活力和不斷增長的市場中創造長期價值。

As a result, based on recent market curves, we are currently estimating a combined ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity for 2025 of $5 billion to $5.5 billion. In addition, while significant uncertainty to both the upside and downside remains for 2026, given our 2026 hedge percentage which is approximately 50%, we have line of sight to an ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of more than $6 billion. Like the 2024 guidance, our long-term outlook excludes any potential benefit from the nuclear PTC, and we will continue to evaluate the appropriate timing for including any of that potential benefit.

因此，根據最近的市場曲線，我們目前估計 2025 年合併持續營運調整後 EBITDA 中點機會為 50 億至 55 億美元。此外，儘管 2026 年的上行和下行仍然存在重大不確定性，但鑑於我們 2026 年的對沖百分比約為 50%，我們預計持續營運調整後的 EBITDA 中位數機會將超過 60 億美元。與 2024 年指南一樣，我們的長期前景不包括核 PTC 的任何潛在好處，我們將繼續評估納入任何潛在好處的適當時機。

Even without the inclusion of any PTC benefit, the improvement in near-term and long-term outlook for Vistra is expected to result in a meaningful amount of unallocated capital through 2026.

即使不包含任何 PTC 福利，瑞致達近期和長期前景的改善預計將在 2026 年之前帶來大量未分配資本。

And with that, I will turn it over to Kris to provide a detailed review of our first quarter results. Kris?

接下來，我將把它交給克里斯，對我們第一季的業績進行詳細的審查。克里斯？

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Turning to Slide 10. Vistra delivered strong first quarter results in 2024 with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of approximately $813 million, including $841 million from generation, offset by negative $28 million from retail. This represents a $259 million improvement, nearly 50% year-over-year.

轉向幻燈片 10。這意味著收入增加了 2.59 億美元，年增近 50%。

For generation, despite another quarter of mild weather conditions, including the warmest winter on record, our comprehensive hedging program, combined with the team's ability to optimize our flexible assets enabled another quarter of strong results.

對於發電而言，儘管又一個季度天氣條件溫和，包括有史以來最溫暖的冬季，但我們全面的對沖計劃，加上團隊優化靈活資產的能力，使得又一個季度取得了強勁的業績。

Turning to retail. As was the case in 2023, the first quarter result was within the range of what we expected. We continue to see higher hedge power costs in the winter and summer months due to entry year shaping and therefore anticipate substantially all of ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for retail to be achieved in the second and fourth quarters. We believe continued strong accounts and margins in the first quarter position retail well for the balance of the year. Finally, our first quarter results benefited from the inclusion of 1 month of Energy Harbor, which totaled approximately $60 million for generation and retail combined.

轉向零售。與 2023 年的情況一樣，第一季業績在我們的預期範圍內。由於進入年份的調整，我們繼續看到冬季和夏季的對沖電力成本較高，因此預計零售業的大部分正在進行的業務調整後的 EBITDA 將在第二和第四季度實現。我們認為，第一季持續強勁的帳戶和利潤率將使今年剩餘時間的零售業表現良好。最後，我們第一季的業績得益於能源港 1 個月的納入，發電和零售總額約為 6,000 萬美元。

On Energy Harbor, we provided an update on the integration process on Slide 11. As Jim mentioned earlier, the team has made significant progress integrating the businesses despite a later-than-expected closing. In the short time since completing the acquisition, the team has identified approximately $150 million of timing and gross margin benefits that are expected to be realized in 2024. These benefits are expected to bring the in-year 2024 contribution from Energy Harbor to approximately $700 million, which compares favorably to our 10-month contribution estimate.

關於 Energy Harbor，我們在投影片 11 上提供了整合流程的最新資訊。在完成收購後的短時間內，該團隊已確定預計將在 2024 年實現約 1.5 億美元的時機和毛利率收益。 10 個月的貢獻估計相比是有利的。

Turning to integration benefits. We've previously communicated expected run rate synergies of $79 million by year-end 2024 and a run rate of $125 million by year-end 2025. Based on the efforts of the teams completed to date, we are increasing the amount of expected run rate synergies by $25 million to a total of $150 million.

轉向整合優勢。我們之前曾表示，到 2024 年底，預計運行率協同效應將達到 7,900 萬美元，到 2025 年底，運行率協同效應將達到 1.25 億美元。 2,500 萬美元，總計1.5 億美元。

Further, when we first announced the acquisition of Energy Harbor, we highlighted our core competency of integrating generation assets, citing the achievements of our Operational Performance Improvement, or OPI, program following the Dynegy acquisition. I am pleased to report that this program continues to deliver, with the teams having identified opportunities for more efficient operations across our nuclear fleet that we expect to lead to $50 million of run rate adjusted EBITDA improvements by year-end 2026. Importantly, we expect these additional opportunities to be achieved with little incremental capital spend.

此外，當我們首次宣布收購 Energy Harbor 時，我們強調了我們整合發電資產的核心能力，並列舉了我們在收購 Dynegy 後營運績效改善 (OPI) 計畫所取得的成就。我很高興地向大家報告，該計劃將繼續實施，團隊已經確定了我們核艦隊更高效運營的機會，我們預計到2026 年底，運行率調整後的EBITDA 將實現5000 萬美元的改進。 ，我們預計這些額外的機會只需很少的增量資本支出即可實現。

Finally, we provide an update on the execution of our capital allocation plan on Slide 12. As of May 3, we executed approximately $3.9 billion of share repurchases, leading to an approximately 28% reduction compared to the number of shares that were outstanding in November 2021. In line with our statements on the fourth quarter 2023 call, we expect to execute at least $2.25 billion of share repurchases over the course of 2024 and 2025. With the long-term update provided today, we still see our shares trading at an elevated free cash flow yield and thus continue to believe share repurchases to be a sound use of our capital.

最後，我們在投影片12 上提供了有關資本分配計畫執行的最新資訊。約28% 2021 年。我們的股票交易價格為自由現金流收益率上升，因此繼續相信股票回購是我們資本的合理利用。

Moving to our dividend program. We announced last week our first quarter 2024 common stock dividend of $0.2175 per share, which represents an increase of approximately 7% over the dividend paid in Q2 2023 and an impressive 45% increase over the dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2021 when our capital allocation plan was first established.

轉向我們的股利計畫。我們上週宣布2024 年第一季普通股股息為每股0.2175 美元，比2023 年第二季支付的股息增加了約7%，比2021 年第四季支付的股息增加了45%，令人印象深刻。

Turning to the balance sheet. Vistra's net leverage ratio currently sits at 3x. As Jim stated earlier, we expect to return to below 3x by the end of 2024 and continue to target a long-term net leverage ratio below 3x. As you may have seen, we successfully issued $1.5 billion of senior secured and unsecured notes at the beginning of April. These notes were issued primarily to fund our 2024 maturities and are not expected to increase our overall leverage levels. We are very pleased with the transaction and view the tight issuance spreads as recognition by bondholders of Vistra's well-positioned business model and favorable outlook.

轉向資產負債表。 Vistra 的淨槓桿率目前為 3 倍。正如 Jim 之前所說，我們預計到 2024 年底將回到 3 倍以下，並繼續將長期淨槓桿率目標定在 3 倍以下。正如您可能已經看到的，我們在 4 月初成功發行了 15 億美元的優先擔保和無擔保票據。這些票據的發行主要是為了為我們 2024 年到期的債券提供資金，預計不會提高我們的整體槓桿水準。我們對此交易感到非常滿意，並認為較小的發行價差是債券持有人對瑞致達定位良好的業務模式和良好前景的認可。

Finally, the first quarter of the year was an active period for Vistra Zero. Our team began construction activities at 2 of our larger Illinois solar and energy storage developments at our former coal plant sites this spring. Notably, despite the current inflationary environment, we continue to expect these projects to comfortably exceed our targeted return thresholds.

最後，今年第一季是瑞致達零的活躍期。今年春天，我們的團隊開始在伊利諾伊州的兩個較大的太陽能和儲能開發項目中進行建設活動，該開發項目位於我們的前燃煤電廠廠址上。值得注意的是，儘管當前存在通膨環境，我們仍然預期這些項目將輕鬆超過我們的目標回報閾值。

Importantly, we took the initial step in developing the long-term capital structure of the Vistra Zero Renewables business, closing on a nonrecourse financing at Vistra Zero. The $700 million term loan, which was also well received, is the first step towards our goal to fund our solar and energy storage growth with a combination of free cash flow from operating renewable projects and nonrecourse financings.

重要的是，我們在發展瑞致達零再生能源業務的長期資本結構方面邁出了第一步，完成了瑞致達零的無追索權融資。 7億美元的定期貸款也受到好評，它是我們實現透過經營再生能源專案的自由現金流和無追索權融資為太陽能和儲能成長提供資金的目標的第一步。

Finally, in connection with the closing of the Energy Harbor acquisition, we have begun paying dividends to the minority investors in Vistra Vision. Our current expectation is that we will pay approximately $100 million in 2024. We view these dividends as part of our capital allocation program as we continue to analyze Vistra's earnings power on a consolidated basis.

最後，隨著能源港收購的完成，我們已開始向 Vistra Vision 的少數投資者支付股息。我們目前的預期是，我們將在 2024 年支付約 1 億美元。

We are very proud of the Vistra team's performance to begin the year, and we remain committed to executing against our 4 strategic priorities. We look forward to updating you on our progress on our second quarter call. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

我們對瑞致達團隊年初的表現感到非常自豪，我們仍然致力於執行我們的 4 項策略重點。我們期待在第二季電話會議上向您通報最新進展。接線員，我們就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的 Shar Pourreza。

Jim, not to sound like a broken record here, but obviously, the moves we've seen in sparks, does that change your thoughts around maybe Tradition's stand-alone viability and potentially separating the 2 companies sooner rather than later or kind of vice versa? And then maybe at the very least, should we expect more details around resegmentation with the roll forward later this year as the moves in the curves can obviously change kind of that top level disclosure you just provided between the 2 segments or it's just not a priority?

吉姆，聽起來不像破紀錄，但顯然，我們在火花中看到的舉動，是否會改變您對 Tradition 的獨立生存能力的看法，並有可能儘早將兩家公司分開，反之亦然？然後，也許至少，我們是否應該期待今年晚些時候向前滾動的更多有關重新細分的細節，因為曲線的變動顯然會改變您剛剛在兩個細分市場之間提供的頂層披露，或者這不是優先事項？

Sure. Thank you, Shar. Yes, as you've noted, the sparks have obviously increased. Fixed-price power has also increased. This discussion about the value of tradition, which I think has come into focus a lot in the last 2 months, has been really positive for Vistra overall. As you note, the Vistra Tradition business is a key part of how we integrate our model overall. So we have a very large retail business that we have in Vistra Vision, and a lot of that business is residential. Residential has a level of usage that can vary with weather. And that's something that the asset side in Vistra Tradition supports extremely well.

當然。謝謝你，莎爾。是的，正如你所指出的，火花明顯增加了。固定價格的權力也有所增加。關於傳統價值的討論，我認為在過去兩個月中引起了很多關注，整體上對瑞致達來說確實是積極的。正如您所指出的，瑞致達傳統業務是我們整體模式整合的關鍵部分。因此，我們在 Vistra Vision 擁有非常龐大的零售業務，其中許多業務都是住宅業務。住宅的使用水準會隨著天氣的變化而改變。這也是瑞致達傳統資產方極力支持的。

On the Vision side, we, of course, have a large nuclear fleet and our storage and solar, but that will not help us with the intraday and some of the weather swings that we would see in the seasons. And so Shar, I think what we were hoping to happen is happening, which is the Vistra Tradition side is being recognized for being highly valuable. I think there was months ago, obviously, already a view that the assets in Vistra Vision were valuable. There was a question mark about the Tradition side. I think that's being addressed by the tightening you're seeing in the marketplace. And frankly, the inbounds that we receive of folks interested in assets in Tradition because these are hard assets to replicate. And I would suggest with some of the EPA rules that have been issued, they're going to be even harder to replicate.

在願景方面，我們當然擁有大型核艦隊以及儲存和太陽能，但這無助於我們應對日內和季節中會出現的一些天氣波動。所以，Shar，我認為我們希望發生的事情正在發生，這就是瑞致達傳統方面被認為具有高度價值。我認為顯然幾個月前就已經有人認為瑞致達願景的資產很有價值。關於傳統方面存在一個問號。我認為市場上的緊縮政策正在解決這個問題。坦白說，我們收到了對傳統資產感興趣的人們的入境，因為這些是難以複製的資產。我建議美國環保署已經發布了一些規則，它們將更難複製。

So we think the integrated model has a lot of value as far as disclosures. We try, and obviously, in our script today, we shared some information about the free cash flow conversion of Vision and Tradition and the relative EBITDA weights. So our goal here was to provide some insights into how the financials work on the integrated model. But I don't think at this point, it's a priority for us to do a GAAP reporting associated with that. I think our goal is to provide our investors the key insights that drive the economics, which, as you know, have a lot more to do with the forwards and our ability to capture it than some of the traditional segmentation methods. So that's a little bit, I think, of color, Shar, is how we're thinking about it.

因此，我們認為綜合模型在揭露方面具有很大的價值。我們嘗試了，顯然，在今天的腳本中，我們分享了一些有關願景和傳統的自由現金流轉換以及相對 EBITDA 權重的資訊。因此，我們的目標是提供一些關於財務如何在整合模型上發揮作用的見解。但我不認為目前我們的首要任務是製作與此相關的 GAAP 報告。我認為我們的目標是為投資者提供推動經濟發展的關鍵見解，正如您所知，與某些傳統的細分方法相比，這與遠期以及我們捕獲遠期的能力有更多關係。所以，我認為，莎爾，這就是我們思考的方式。

Got it. That's perfect. And then, Jim, just on the market dynamics. I mean, a big investor debate right now over a new entry in ERCOT and whether it will even make a dent in demand through the end of the decade. I guess what's your house view on gas due builds and scarcity at this point? Are we kind of setting up for another early 2000s rush of turbines?

知道了。那很完美。然後，吉姆，談談市場動態。我的意思是，目前投資者正在就 ERCOT 的新進入以及它是否會在本世紀末削弱需求展開一場大辯論。我猜你對目前天然氣的建設和稀缺有何看法？我們是否正在為 2000 年代初的另一場渦輪機熱潮做好準備？

Great question, Shar. I think -- so first of all, I think the queue of gas is starting to build a little bit. The application process will officially open for the Texas loan program in June. I think it's different than the early 2000s in a couple of ways. Number one, while sparks have improved over the -- even the last 2 months, in ERCOT, we no longer have the severe backwardation that we are accustomed to seeing. So that's a bullish sign. The loan program would be a bullish sign.

很好的問題，莎爾。我認為——首先，我認為天然氣隊列開始有點多了。德州貸款計畫的申請流程將於六月正式開放。我認為這與 2000 年代初期有幾個不同之處。第一，雖然 ERCOT 的火花在過去 2 個月有所改善，但我們不再出現我們習慣看到的嚴重現貨溢價。所以這是一個看漲訊號。貸款計劃將是一個看漲信號。

However, the EPA rules, the proposed rule and the final rule that was issued last week will make it very difficult for somebody to be comfortable with the combined cycle gas turbine technology, which was different than the early 2000s. That baseload technology, if it were to run over 40% capacity factor, would need to have the carbon capture capability installed by 2032. We do not see an operating combined cycle with carbon capture technology anywhere in the world that we can point to. So I think the emphasis ultimately will be on peakers. The peakers are a higher heat rate. Machines are going to run and would need to run less than 40% capacity factor.

然而，EPA 規則、擬議規則和上週發布的最終規則將使人們很難適應聯合循環燃氣渦輪技術，這與 2000 年代初期不同。如果該基本負載技術要運行超過 40% 的容量係數，則需要在 2032 年之前安裝碳捕獲能力。所以我認為最終的重點將是峰值者。峰值器的熱耗率較高。機器將要運作並且需要以低於 40% 的容量係數運作。

And I think with the build-out of renewables, the solar, the wind, and even the shorter duration batteries, peakers make sense from a build-out standpoint. But I don't think they're going to be the 60-plus percent capacity factor assets that you saw coming in, in the early 2000s.

我認為，隨著再生能源、太陽能、風能，甚至持續時間較短的電池的建設，從建設的角度來看，尖峰發電是有意義的。但我認為它們不會是 2000 年代初期出現的 60% 以上的產能係數資產。

As far as is it an oversupply, I think we're in a chicken-and-egg situation with ERCOT. I think the demand is there and the demand is going to be waiting for the supply. And so I don't think it's a situation where we're dealing with static demand and which asset can best serve it. I think it's going to be an ever-increasing demand that will continue to come as long as assets are coming on to the grid. And I believe Texas, which has positioned itself as open for business, wants to be a leader in this economic development opportunity. And I think that's true for transmission, I think it's true for renewables. I think it's true for dispatchable assets like gas peakers. So I think the fundamentals are really different than what we saw a couple of decades ago.

就供應過剩而言，我認為我們與 ERCOT 處於先有雞還是先有蛋的情況。我認為需求是存在的，需求將等待供應。因此，我不認為我們正在處理靜態需求以及哪種資產最能滿足需求的情況。我認為只要資產併入電網，需求就會不斷增加。我相信，將自己定位為開放商業的德州希望成為這個經濟發展機會的領導者。我認為對於輸電和再生能源都是如此。我認為對於天然氣峰值器等可調度資產也是如此。所以我認為基本面與我們幾十年前所看到的確實不同。

Perfect. And then just 1 really quick one for Kris. Kris, just on the '26 midpoint opportunity, how much incremental EBITDA would there be if you were fully opened in '26? So I guess how sensitive are you to that number?

完美的。然後克里斯就快速完成了 1 次。 Kris，就在 26 年的中點機會上，如果您在 26 年完全開業，EBITDA 會有多少增量？所以我猜你對這個數字有多敏感？

Yes. On the sensitivity, what I'll say is we feel good about the $6 billion number. We have a high confidence in that number, given where the curves are and where our hedge percentage is. As we look to sensitivities, we haven't given that. But as we think about it versus what you'll see in our deck on 2025, it's roughly twice, I would say, as sensitive to moves in power and sparks is what we're showing for 2025. But we do feel confident in that $6 billion number.

是的。關於敏感性，我要說的是我們對 60 億美元的數字感覺良好。考慮到曲線的位置和我們的對沖百分比，我們對這個數字充滿信心。當我們關注敏感度時，我們沒有給出這一點。但當我們考慮到它與你將在2025 年在我們的牌組中看到的情況相比時，我想說，它大約是兩倍，因為我們在2025 年所展示的對力量和火花的變化敏感。

Jim, fantastic execution today. Thank you.

吉姆，今天的表現非常出色。謝謝。

Thank you, Shar.

謝謝你，莎爾。

The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Congrats on the solid print. Just maybe can I ask you on the free cash flow conversion? So it looks like the '24 guidance is about 50% of EBITDA and then you gave us the numbers for Vistra Vision and then Tradition. Just how do you see that trending? The answer to that is higher, but what are the drivers that get you from 50% on the Vision side of the things to 60%? Is that integration, more efficiencies? Maybe just talk to that, please.

恭喜您獲得純色印刷。也許我可以問你關於自由現金流轉換的問題嗎？所以看起來 24 年的指導大約是 EBITDA 的 50%，然後你給了我們 Vistra Vision 和 Tradition 的數字。您如何看待這種趨勢？答案是更高，但是什麼驅動因素讓你從願景的 50% 提升到 60%？是整合、更高效率嗎？也許只是談談這個，拜託。

Yes, that's a good question. As you would expect, we put a lot of emphasis internally on the free cash flow conversion rate. And as Jim said in our prepared remarks, we target 55% to 60%, and we're a little bit lower than that based on 2 timing issues, I would say, this year. One of those is that of the -- on Slide 11, you'll see that Energy Harbor increased $150 million. One of that is -- $100 million of that $150 million is really due to a change in accounting methodology for outage expense recognition. So that's a noncash item that is increasing EBITDA but not turning into cash. So that is hurting free cash flow conversion.

是的，這是一個好問題。正如您所料，我們內部非常重視自由現金流轉換率。正如吉姆在我們準備好的發言中所說，我們的目標是 55% 到 60%，我想說，今年我們的目標比基於兩個時機問題的目標要低一些。其中之一是 - 在幻燈片 11 上，您會看到 Energy Harbor 增加了 1.5 億美元。其中之一是——這 1.5 億美元中的 1 億美元實際上是由於停電費用確認的會計方法發生了變化。因此，這是一個非現金項目，它會增加 EBITDA，但不會轉化為現金。因此，這損害了自由現金流轉換。

And then the other one is that, as you would expect, the retail team enters into contract for future periods, we generally -- as the prices have increased, we generally see the hedge of that -- we do that hedging through a variety of structures. And if that price has risen in the outer years, the cost of those products has increased. So that does create a timing mismatch between when we pay the cash premiums on those options and when we recognize the revenue in future years. So we would expect that to reverse as we go forward.

然後另一個是，正如你所期望的，零售團隊簽訂了未來時期的合同，我們通常 - 隨著價格上漲，我們通常會看到對沖 - 我們通過各種方式進行對沖結構。如果價格在過去幾年上漲，那麼這些產品的成本就會增加。因此，這確實造成了我們為這些選擇權支付現金溢價的時間與我們在未來幾年確認收入的時間之間的時間不匹配。因此，我們預計隨著我們的前進，這種情況將會逆轉。

So if you just reverse those 2 timing impacts, our free cash flow conversion this year would be closer to 55%. And then we just see some other improvements that get us closer to the 60% starting next year and moving forward.

因此，如果您扭轉這 2 個時間影響，我們今年的自由現金流轉換率將接近 55%。然後我們看到了一些其他改進，使我們從明年開始並繼續前進，距離 60% 更近了。

Durgesh, what I would add to Kris's comment is, as you see the curves rise, some of that does not necessarily require additional capital and expense to achieve the higher earnings and free cash flow. So as you see the projections improve, you would expect to see some of the free cash flow conversion improve by the nature of the gross margin expansion and more of that dropping to the bottom line. So that is part of the trend that we're describing when we gave you the outlook for the free cash flow conversion.

Durgesh，我要對克里斯的評論補充的是，正如您所看到的曲線上升一樣，其中一些並不一定需要額外的資本和支出來實現更高的收益和自由現金流。因此，當您看到預測有所改善時，您會期望看到一些自由現金流轉換因毛利率擴張的性質而有所改善，而更多的則下降到底線。這就是我們在向您提供自由現金流轉換前景時所描述的趨勢的一部分。

I appreciate all that color. Very helpful. And then just Jim and Kris, there's a lot of debate around how long are you going to do these share buybacks. I appreciate there's not a clear-cut answer, but can you give us some parameters? What metrics are you looking at? Is it free cash flow yield? Is it EBITDA? What is the comp group you're comparing it to? Is it IPPs or the broader market as we think about your decision-making on those share buybacks going forward?

我很欣賞所有這些顏色。很有幫助。然後，只有吉姆和克里斯，關於股票回購要持續多久存在很多爭論。我很高興沒有明確的答案，但你能給我們一些參數嗎？您關注哪些指標？是自由現金流收益率嗎？是息稅折舊攤提前利潤嗎？您將其與哪個比較組進行比較？當我們考慮您對未來股票回購的決策時，是獨立發電廠還是更廣泛的市場？

Sure. Durgesh, I'll start and argue, as a more of a free cash flow yield comparison and how does that compare to the next best use of capital. When we started this process, of course, years ago, we were talking about free cash flow yields north of 20% for the business. It was a very obvious choice, I think, as to how we would deploy capital, recognizing where our relative value was in the marketplace.

當然。杜爾格甚，我將開始爭論，作為一個更多的自由現金流收益率比較，以及它與下一個最佳資本利用相比如何。當然，幾年前，當我們開始這個流程時，我們談論的是企業的自由現金流收益率超過 20%。我認為，對於我們如何部署資本、認識到我們在市場上的相對價值而言，這是一個非常明顯的選擇。

As we've continued to see our share price move, which is a good thing, we've also seen the forward curves move and the earnings power of the business move. And so we still certainly see upside from where we sit today from a share value. But you'll see the free cash flow yields have certainly come down, still well above some peers in the market. But we also have other competitive projects now with those free cash flow yields.

隨著我們繼續看到我們的股價變動（這是一件好事），我們也看到了遠期曲線的變動和業務獲利能力的變動。因此，我們仍然肯定會看到股價比今天的位置有上升空間。但你會發現自由現金流收益率確實下降了，仍然遠高於市場上的一些同行。但我們現在還有其他具有這些自由現金流收益率的競爭項目。

The ability to do our Vistra Zero projects in the mid-teens type of free cash flow type returns, that gives us some confidence there. We've got some organic opportunities, including some gas plants that we think are competitive. There may be inorganic opportunities like M&A on both retail and generation. Those are all more competitive today where we're currently trading. And the good news is that I think we could do multiple of those, not an either/or. So I still believe where we sit today with the free cash flow yield, the returning capital through our buybacks, as we've discussed, through 2025, the $2.25 billion makes a lot of sense.

我們能夠以十幾歲左右的自由現金流類型回報來完成瑞致達零項目，這給了我們一些信心。我們有一些有機機會，包括一些我們認為具有競爭力的天然氣工廠。零售業和發電業可能存在併購等無機機會。今天我們目前交易的這些都更具競爭力。好消息是我認為我們可以做多個這樣的事情，而不是非此即彼。因此，我仍然相信，正如我們所討論的，到 2025 年，從自由現金流收益率、透過回購返還資本的情況來看，22.5 億美元是很有意義的。

We have additional unallocated cash flow that we could do either more return of capital through buybacks, other shareholder opportunities such as dividends, but we're really focused on other growth opportunities. And as long as they're competitive with that benchmark on the return of capital through repurchases, we've got a lot of options on the table. I think that's an exciting place to be for Vistra. It's not where we were 3 years ago in terms of this choice set, but it's opened up considerably. Kris, anything you'd like to add?

我們有額外的未分配現金流，我們可以透過回購、股利等其他股東機會來獲得更多資本回報，但我們真正關注的是其他成長機會。只要他們透過回購在資本回報上具有競爭力，我們就有很多選擇。我認為這對瑞致達來說是一個令人興奮的地方。就選擇集而言，現在與三年前不同，但它已經開放了很多。克里斯，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I would just, again, reiterate that we do maintain an internal model and evaluation. And then we get feedback from our partners, our consultants as well, and we've done that recently. And we continue to look at different ways to value our stock. And right now, where it sits is any way we look at it, given the update that we've provided today, we still feel like our stock is a good buy. To the extent it gets to the point where it exceeds our internal valuation, which we don't see as being a near-term issue, but we would have to then discuss -- we will be disciplined in how we spend our capital.

是的。我只是再次重申，我們確實維護內部模型和評估。然後我們從我們的合作夥伴和顧問那裡得到回饋，我們最近已經這樣做了。我們繼續尋找不同的方法來評估我們的股票。現在，無論我們以何種方式看待它，鑑於我們今天提供的更新，我們仍然認為我們的股票是值得買入的。如果它達到了超過我們內部估值的地步，我們認為這不是一個短期問題，但我們必須隨後討論——我們將在如何使用我們的資本方面受到約束。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛‧阿卡羅。

Great update. I was wondering, could you talk (inaudible) I'm curious, which location...

很棒的更新。我想知道，你能談談（聽不清楚）我很好奇，哪個位置...

David, this is Jim. I think I heard you mention data centers and curious about locations. Was that the question? It broke up a little bit on us, I'm sorry.

大衛，這是吉姆。我想我聽到你提到了資料中心並且對位置感到好奇。是這個問題嗎？抱歉，我們之間的關係有點破裂。

Sorry about that. I was wondering the data center opportunity with your nuclear plants, could you give an update as to potential timing, which locations might be more attractive than others?

對於那個很抱歉。我想知道你們核電廠的資料中心機會，您能否提供有關潛在時間的最新信息，哪些地點可能比其他地點更具吸引力？

Sure. Yes, thank you, David. I think the conversation certainly has picked up this year. We started our process actually last year looking at our -- at the time, it was a prospective close of Energy Harbor, which, of course, is now in the rearview mirror, which is great. And of course, the Talen AWS deal came out early March. So that was certainly a benchmark and a watershed event for the industry.

當然。是的，謝謝你，大衛。我認為今年的對話肯定有所升溫。實際上，我們去年就開始了我們的流程，當時，能源港的預期關閉，當然，現在已經在後視鏡中了，這很棒。當然，Talen AWS 交易是 3 月初達成的。因此，這無疑是該行業的一個基準和分水嶺事件。

I will say the 2 unit sites still have -- this is an order of preference that I think the market is grappling with. The 2 unit sites have more desirability for what their redundancy can provide. Then there's the single-unit sites, of course. And then there's the gas plants. So what's been very interesting, David, about our discussions with potential partners is we have normally sort of tried to search for opportunities for us to find partners and bid into their energy needs. Now this has been reversed. We actually have partners, potential partners coming to us directly.

我想說的是，兩個單位的網站仍然有——這是我認為市場正在努力解決的優先順序。兩個單元網站對其冗餘所能提供的功能更加滿意。當然，還有單體網站。然後是天然氣廠。大衛，關於我們與潛在合作夥伴的討論，非常有趣的是，我們通常會嘗試尋找機會來尋找合作夥伴並滿足他們的能源需求。現在這種情況已經逆轉了。我們實際上有合作夥伴，潛在的合作夥伴直接來找我們。

And speed is really very important to them. I would say gas has become as interesting to many of them as nuclear has, in fact, even a preference for some. So from our standpoint, all options are on the table with 40,000 megawatts. And we've got, obviously, 12 states and 40,000 megawatts that we can do some of our projects with. But we've actually flipped it a little bit so we've actually put out some RFPs ourselves. So instead of just responding to the inbounds, we've actually gone out to the marketplace to handle actually multiple conversations simultaneously and see what the best opportunity might be for us. And so that process has not concluded yet, but we're in the middle of that process. And we're very excited about the interest.

速度對他們來說確實非常重要。我想說，天然氣對他們中的許多人來說已經變得像核能一樣有趣，事實上，甚至有些人更喜歡核能。因此，從我們的角度來看，40,000 兆瓦的所有選項都可以考慮。顯然，我們有 12 個州和 40,000 兆瓦的電力可供我們進行一些專案。但我們實際上已經稍微改變了它，所以我們實際上自己提出了一些 RFP。因此，我們不只是回應入站請求，實際上還到市場上同時處理多個對話，看看對我們來說最好的機會是什麼。所以這個過程還沒結束，但我們正處於這個過程的中間。我們對這種興趣感到非常興奮。

Of course, you can imagine the hyperscalers, the colocators and the specific developers are in that process. We're dedicating a ton of time to it as I am personally. And it's probably been the most exciting development for our industry in quite some time. But we think we can be a great partner to one or more capable parties because of the size of the fleet in multiple geographies. And I don't know yet which one is going to happen first. But it's a huge opportunity set for us, David, and one that I think we're going to be making really good progress on here shortly.

當然，您可以想像超大規模提供者、主機和特定開發人員都在這個過程中。就我個人而言，我們為此投入了大量時間。這可能是我們行業相當長一段時間以來最令人興奮的發展。但我們認為，由於我們在多個地區擁有龐大的機隊規模，我們可以成為一個或多個有能力的一方的優秀合作夥伴。我還不知道哪一個會先發生。但這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，大衛，我認為我們很快就會在這方面取得非常好的進展。

Great, that's really helpful color. Was wondering if you could also touch on just other power plants and other colocation opportunities at gas plants. And are you potentially considering new build yourself as well, would be curious?

太棒了，這個顏色真的很有用。想知道您是否也可以談談其他發電廠和天然氣廠的其他託管機會。您是否也可能考慮自己新建，會感到好奇嗎？

Yes, David. It actually ties into the earlier question, which is you have existing assets that we have in our portfolio, large-scale combined cycle assets. The goal, obviously, for any of these potential partners with the data centers is speed and then reliability that they can count on for supply. It's going to be really hard to build an asset like a combined cycle to support a new data center without it having the carbon capture equipment that we were talking about. That's a huge lift.

是的，大衛。它實際上與先前的問題相關，即我們的投資組合中擁有現有資產，即大型聯合循環資產。顯然，對於資料中心的任何潛在合作夥伴來說，目標都是速度，然後是他們可以信賴的供應可靠性。如果沒有我們正在討論的碳捕獲設備，那麼建立像聯合循環這樣的資產來支援新資料中心將非常困難。這是一個巨大的提升。

That carbon capture equipment could double, if not triple the cost of the combined cycle. So I don't view that as a really attractive near-term option at this point until that technology matures. So I think the existing combined cycles are an opportunity for somebody to colocate. I think the next best alternative, if it's involving gas, is likely to be peakers. But that will probably require that, that data center needs to also be prepared to pull from the grid so they could get the cheaper wind and solar power on the margin when available but be prepared to run the peakers for continuity of supply and potentially a price hedge. That I think is a potential model.

此碳捕獲設備可能會使複合循環的成本增加一倍，甚至三倍。因此，在該技術成熟之前，我認為目前這並不是一個真正有吸引力的短期選擇。所以我認為現有的聯合循環對人們來說是一個共處的機會。我認為，如果涉及天然氣，下一個最佳選擇可能是高峰。但這可能會要求，該資料中心還需要準備好從電網中拉出，以便他們可以在可用時獲得更便宜的風能和太陽能，但準備好運行調峰器以實現供應的連續性和潛在的價格樹籬。我認為這是一個潛在的模型。

And I think some of our partners we're talking to are wrestling with the fact that to build out the number of gigawatts that they're talking about, there's only so many large meters you can leave behind. You're going to have to actually add supply to the grid, and you're probably going to have to work in a hybrid type situation where you're pulling when there's surplus but then producing when you need. And I think peakers could potentially play that role. And I think, again, that plays into this queue discussion of what if there's a lot of gas to be built.

我認為我們正在交談的一些合作夥伴正在努力解決這樣一個事實：要建造他們所說的千兆瓦數量，你只能留下這麼多的大型儀表。你將不得不實際增加電網的供應，並且你可能必須在混合類型的情況下工作，在有剩餘時拉動，然後在需要時生產。我認為巔峰者有可能扮演這個角色。我再次認為，這會影響到關於如果需要建造大量天然氣該怎麼辦的隊列討論。

I actually think that means more load comes and then we might have to build more gas along with the wind, solar and battery that is, as you know, already heavily in the queue. But this gas from a reliability standpoint, I think, will play a role one way or the other. I just don't see it being combined -- brand new combined cycles for that purpose until there's more clarity about these EPA rules. They're likely to be litigated. I think it's tough to invest into an environment where you've got uncertainty with protracted litigation. And so I think it's going to be difficult to create new baseload assets with confidence. And that's why I think the existing baseload assets are getting as much attention as they are.

事實上，我認為這意味著更多的負載到來，然後我們可能必須建造更多的天然氣以及風能、太陽能和電池，正如你所知，這些已經在排隊了。但我認為，從可靠性的角度來看，這種氣體將以某種方式發揮作用。我只是不認為它會被合併——用於此目的的全新聯合循環，直到這些 EPA 規則更加明確為止。他們很可能會被起訴。我認為投資一個因曠日持久的訴訟而充滿不確定性的環境是很困難的。因此，我認為充滿信心地創建新的基本負載資產將會很困難。這就是為什麼我認為現有的基本負載資產受到了同樣多的關注。

The next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

So just first maybe starting with your credit metrics and investment-grade aspirations. So just wondering what's the time line when we think you're going to hit -- the low -- I mean, investment-grade metrics? And how you could potentially use like stock-based M&A to actually accelerate this path to investment-grade?

因此，首先可能要從您的信用指標和投資等級願望開始。所以只是想知道我們認為你會達到投資等級指標的最低點的時間是什麼？以及如何利用以股票為基礎的併購來真正加速這條通往投資等級的道路？

Thanks, Angie. I appreciate that. As you know, we just said today, we're right at 3x. I think there's a -- we're 2 notches away from investment-grade with 2 of the agencies and 1 notch away from the other one. So we have some work to do even to get closer to investment grade. I think we're continuing to look at -- as we look at the outlook, I mean, our leverage metrics go down just with the increase in EBITDA that you're seeing over time.

謝謝，安吉。我很感激。如你所知，我們今天剛剛說過，我們的成長速度是 3 倍。我認為，我們與其中 2 家機構的投資等級相差 2 級，與另一家機構相差 1 級。因此，為了更接近投資級別，我們還有一些工作要做。我認為我們正在繼續關注——當我們展望前景時，我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我們的槓桿指標會隨著 EBITDA 的增加而下降。

And then we have sufficient -- a significant amount of cash that is yet to be allocated. And so some of that will go to debt repayment. So we do expect to -- that there could be opportunities to be talking about investment-grade metrics in the next year or 2. First, we want to make sure that we get the agencies to the 1 level below, and then we'll really start talking to them about timing for the deleveraging and where we need to get. I think we said on the last call, it's important for us to get to investment grade.

然後我們還有足夠的——大量現金尚未分配。因此，其中一部分將用於償還債務。因此，我們確實預計，在未來一兩年內可能有機會討論投資等級指標。達到的目標。我想我們在上次電話會議上說過，達到投資等級對我們來說很重要。

If we do that, that we are comfortably in investment grade, we don't want to be right at the edge of the metrics. We want to be significantly into that area. So we haven't had those detailed discussions yet because like I said, we're still waiting to get the upgrade to the 1 notch below.

如果我們這樣做，我們就可以輕鬆地達到投資級別，我們不想處於指標的邊緣。我們希望大力進入該領域。所以我們還沒有進行這些詳細的討論，因為就像我說的，我們仍在等待升級到以下 1 級。

I think as you think about our currency, as we said, we're still -- we've been focused. The price of the stock has come up and there could be opportunities to use it in transactions. But at this point, as we just noted earlier in the call, we still see room for our stock to run and we're currently buying. So I don't think that, that would be the driver for why investment-grade wouldn't be the driver for any deal like that. We would certainly think about our ratings as we did any potential opportunistic transaction. But we're comfortable where we are. We do think we'll get to investment-grade metrics, but we don't have a specific time line to do so.

我認為，正如我們所說，當你考慮我們的貨幣時，我們仍然——我們一直在專注。股票價格已經上漲，可能有機會在交易中使用它。但目前，正如我們剛才在電話會議中指出的那樣，我們仍然認為我們的股票有上漲空間，而我們目前正在買入。因此，我不認為這會成為投資等級不會成為此類交易的驅動因素的原因。當我們進行任何潛在的機會主義交易時，我們當然會考慮我們的評級。但我們對自己所處的位置感到很舒服。我們確實認為我們將達到投資等級指標，但我們沒有具體的時間表。

Okay. And then changing topics a bit, like your sunset assets and the brownfield site especially those associated with the former Dynegy coal plant. So just wondering, is there any change in your views about the longevity of those sunset assets? Now it seems like they're economic, right? I'm sure that some of the increased output from these assets is embedded in those EBITDA ranges that you provided us with. But I just wonder if some of these assets might get reallocated back to this provision, meaning that you will not put them in that sunset bucket. And number two, if there's any upside associated with these brownfield sites from the former coal plants, especially in Illinois.

好的。然後稍微改變話題，例如你的日落資產和棕地，尤其是那些與前 Dynegy 燃煤電廠相關的。所以我想知道，您對這些日落資產的壽命的看法有什麼變化嗎？現在看來他們很經濟，對吧？我確信這些資產增加的產出中的一部分已包含在您向我們提供的 EBITDA 範圍內。但我只是想知道其中一些資產是否可能會重新分配回此條款，這意味著您不會將它們放入日落桶中。第二，這些前燃煤電廠的棕地是否有任何好處，尤其是在伊利諾州。

So Angie, I think on the coal plants themselves, the main driver that we're looking at on a go-forward basis is really the EPA rules that we need to comply with, which means that all but 2 of our coal plants, the 2 being Martin Lake and Oak Grove, will be retiring in that 2027 time frame unless there's some other change in rule or law that we don't anticipate.

安吉，我認為就燃煤電廠本身而言，我們未來考慮的主要驅動因素實際上是我們需要遵守的 EPA 規則，這意味著除了 2 家以外，我們所有的燃煤電廠，第二名是馬丁·萊克（Martin Lake）和奧克·格羅夫（Oak Grove），他們將在2027 年的時間範圍內退休，除非規則或法律發生其他我們無法預料的變化。

They are more economic, given these curves. I think part of the reason the backward -- the farther dated parts of the curve, particularly 2028 in PJM and even in Texas has moved up because the dates are becoming more real. And I think the supply-demand dynamic is becoming more apparent. And so it's not as much about the economics of those sites at this point that are in Ohio and Illinois and more about the compliance, which, of course, we're going to comply with the EPA rules that are in effect.

考慮到這些曲線，它們更加經濟。我認為部分原因是曲線上較遠日期的部分（特別是 PJM 的 2028 年，甚至德克薩斯州的 2028 年）已經向上移動，因為日期變得更加真實。我認為供需動態正變得更加明顯。因此，目前與俄亥俄州和伊利諾伊州這些地點的經濟性無關，更多的是關於合規性，當然，我們將遵守現行的 EPA 規則。

As far as Martin Lake and Oak Grove, with the new rules that played out last week, we would either have to add carbon capture technology to those sites, which again would be very difficult to do, similarly to the comments I made about combined cycle or co-fire 40% with gas, which we believe is a possibility, something that we think could extend the life of those assets are needed potentially all the way up to 2039. That's something we would have to evaluate because we've got to have the sufficient gas supply to be doing co-firing at that level. And currently, we don't. We have some co-fire at Oak Grove, but it's a much lower level.

就馬丁湖和奧克格羅夫而言，根據上週實施的新規則，我們要么必須在這些地點添加碳捕獲技術，但這又是非常困難的，類似於我對聯合循環的評論或者與天然氣共燃40%，我們認為這是一種可能性，我們認為這可以延長這些資產的使用壽命，直到2039 年。進行共燒。目前，我們還沒有。我們在奧克格羅夫有一些混火，但水平要低得多。

So I think, Angie, this transition is happening on the grid, this baseload across the country, whether it's regulated markets or competitive markets, has to comply with these EPA rules. And I think the opportunity for us to do something with those sites and redevelop the sites down the road is possible but to operate in the coal configuration that it is right now seems unlikely for those sites in Ohio and Illinois.

所以我認為，安吉，這種轉變正在電網上發生，全國範圍內的基本負荷，無論是受監管的市場還是競爭性市場，都必須遵守這些 EPA 規則。我認為我們有機會對這些場地做一些事情並重新開發這些場地，但對於俄亥俄州和伊利諾伊州的這些場地來說，目前的煤炭配置似乎不太可能。

Okay. And just 1 last 1 about capacity prices. I'm just wondering what kind of assumptions did you embed or like versus at least the last (inaudible) capacity auction in those ranges that you provided us with, given that we're awaiting the next capacity auction in PJM? And we're seeing some bilateral contracts. We think those incremental capacity auctions clearing meaningfully higher than that last auction. I'm just wondering at least directionally if you can give us a sense what you expect and what is embedded in those ranges.

好的。最後 1 項是關於容量價格的。我只是想知道，考慮到我們正在等待 PJM 的下一次容量拍賣，與您提供給我們的範圍內的至少最後一次（聽不清楚）容量拍賣相比，您嵌入或喜歡什麼樣的假設？我們看到了一些雙邊合約。我們認為這些增量容量拍賣的清算明顯高於上次拍賣。我只是想知道至少在方向上您是否能讓我們了解您的期望以及這些範圍中包含的內容。

Yes, Angie, we do see some bilateral trades that are indicating improvement in PJM capacity clears. I think we've still been pretty conservative with our forecast and how we've built assumptions for the auctions that are forthcoming, the first one coming in July. I think where we've seen some of these clears, we've seen them in the $90, $100 kind of megawatt day range. Whether we're going to see that in this upcoming clear or it's going to be one later in December, we like the steps that PJM has been attempting to bring forward.

是的，Angie，我們確實看到一些雙邊貿易顯示 PJM 產能清理有所改善。我認為我們對我們的預測以及我們如何為即將到來的拍賣（第一次拍賣將於 7 月舉行）建立假設仍然相當保守。我認為我們已經看到了其中一些明確的情況，我們已經看到它們在 90 美元、100 美元的兆瓦日範圍內。無論我們是在即將到來的澄清中還是在 12 月晚些時候看到這一點，我們都喜歡 PJM 一直試圖採取的步驟。

They haven't been successful in all of the market reforms that they've recommended, but I think there is a recognition of the tightening supply-demand dynamics and also the fact that this coal is going to be retiring. And there's, frankly, interest in stakeholders. At our visits to Ohio state leaders, they'd like to see some new gas plants built. So it's not just a Texas market dynamic. It's other places where they're attracting industry and the reshoring, the CHIPS build out, and they want to see more assets come to ground, which capacity markets play certainly a key role in sending that signal.

他們所建議的所有市場改革並未取得成功，但我認為人們已經認識到供需動態趨緊以及煤炭即將退出的事實。坦白說，利害關係人也很感興趣。當我們拜訪俄亥俄州領導人時，他們希望看到建造一些新的天然氣工廠。因此，這不僅僅是德克薩斯州市場的動態。他們在其他地方吸引工業和回流，擴大CHIPS，他們希望看到更多資產落地，而容量市場在發出這一信號方面無疑發揮著關鍵作用。

So we have an improvement embedded, Angie, but certainly not anything that I would call a big lift from what we've seen some historical clears be. But it's going to have to prove out in the auctions themselves. And at this point, we await to -- they've been delayed for a while so we're all eager to see how these next couple of auctions play out. Steve, anything you'd like to add?

所以我們有一個嵌入的改進，安吉，但肯定不是任何我認為比我們所看到的一些歷史清除有很大提升的東西。但這必須在拍賣本身中得到證明。此時此刻，我們正在等待——它們已經推遲了一段時間，所以我們都渴望看到接下來的幾場拍賣會如何進行。史蒂夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think, Jim, you hit it. It's basically, if you look historically, PJM cleared on average $100 a megawatt day historically. We see that happening at the very least. And obviously, as grids continue to get tighter with demand growth in PJM and the retirements of coal that Jim mentioned, which are really more environmentally driven than they are price-driven, that market should continue to tighten.

不，我想，吉姆，你成功了。基本上，如果你回顧歷史，PJM 歷史上平均每兆瓦日清算 100 美元。我們至少看到這種情況正在發生。顯然，隨著吉姆提到的 PJM 需求成長和煤炭退役（實際上更多的是環境驅動而不是價格驅動），電網繼續變得緊張，市場應該繼續收緊。

The next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼。

Thanks for some of the new disclosures. I'm going to go back to an earlier question just on the 2026 hedging, the 50% hedged. Could you give a little more color on just how the pricing of those hedges are versus current market and/or kind of the timing? Like that 50% number, where was it at year-end '23, Q1 '24? Just that would be helpful.

感謝您披露一些新資訊。我要回到之前關於 2026 年對沖的問題，即 50% 對沖。您能否進一步說明這些避險的定價與當前市場和/或時機的情況？就像那個 50% 的數字一樣，23 年底、24 年第一季的數字在哪裡？只是這樣會有幫助。

Sure, Steve, the hedging, obviously, from our standpoint, we look at it as more opportunistic. So we look at where the price obviously is, where our fundamental view is and then is there actual liquidity in the market to transact. So just to give a perspective, at the end of last year, so December time frame, we were in a hedge percentage that was going to be closer to 10% to 15% hedged for 2026. So the team, as they've seen this move particularly more recently, have been moving more volume, Steve. There's also been more liquidity in the marketplace.

當然，史蒂夫，對沖，顯然，從我們的角度來看，我們認為它更具機會主義色彩。因此，我們會關注價格明顯在哪裡，我們的基本面在哪裡，然後市場上是否有實際的流動性可供交易。因此，只是為了提供一個視角，在去年年底，也就是 12 月的時間範圍內，我們的對沖百分比將接近 10% 到 15%，到 2026 年進行對沖。舉動尤其是最近，一直在移動更多的交易量，史蒂夫。市場上的流動性也有所增加。

And I'm going to ask Stephen Muscato to comment on that a little bit because, obviously, if you're looking to move some of your volume, depending on the depth in the market, you could be having impacts as well and the team is sensitive to that. I'd like Steve to comment on how he's seen that dynamic change because it's been more recent, and I think it's been indicative again of this recognition by market participants that the load is coming, some of the baseload is retiring, and this is coming together in a supply-demand dynamic. And Steve, I'd like for you to comment.

我將請史蒂芬·穆斯卡托對此發表一點評論，因為顯然，如果您希望根據市場的深度來增加部分銷量，那麼您和團隊也可能會產生影響對此很敏感。我想讓史蒂夫評論他如何看待這種動態變化，因為這是最近的事，我認為這再次表明市場參與者認識到負載即將到來，一些基本負載正在退役，而且這即將到來在供需動態中共同發揮作用。史蒂夫，我希望你發表評論。

Sure, Jim. As you pointed out, we've been waiting for the curve in ERCOT to no longer be in backwardation and move up into a contango formation, which it is. And the second thing we look for is basically liquidity events, meaning there's going to be people that are willing to buy it with enough scale for us to get our hedges off. And we're starting to see that liquidity come in.

當然，吉姆。正如您所指出的，我們一直在等待 ERCOT 曲線不再處於現貨溢價狀態，並向上進入正價差形態，事實也確實如此。我們尋找的第二件事基本上是流動性事件，這意味著有人願意以足夠的規模購買它，以便我們擺脫對沖。我們開始看到流動性湧入。

We're seeing trades that are no longer, let's say, 10 or 15 megawatts out in the '26 through '28 period. We are seeing people willing to buy a couple of hundred megs at a time. And so we try to scale into that because it is a finite market. It is something we can scale up. And now that we're seeing some of that contango come in, we're taking some off the table. I don't think we're done yet. I think the gas prices are part of the reason why ERCOT is in contango, not just heat rate.

我們看到，從 26 年到 28 年期間，交易量不再是 10 或 15 兆瓦。我們看到人們願意一次購買幾百兆。因此，我們嘗試擴大規模，因為這是一個有限的市場。這是我們可以擴大規模的事情。現在我們看到一些正價差出現，我們正在取消一些。我認為我們還沒有完成。我認為天然氣價格是 ERCOT 出現期貨溢價的部分原因，而不僅僅是熱耗率。

But if you look at sparks, sparks are expanding. But if you look at heat rates, and I really want to bring that to your focus, heat rates are not expanding as fast as you would think, given a tightening market. So a lot of this contango is gas-driven, and we think there's more to come in terms of heat rate expansion.

但如果你觀察火花，你會發現火花正在擴大。但如果你看看熱價，我真的很想讓你注意這一點，考慮到市場緊縮，熱價的成長速度並沒有你想像的那麼快。因此，大部分期貨溢價都是由天然氣驅動的，我們認為在熱耗率擴張方面還會有更多的情況出現。

Okay. And then just 2, I guess, other questions on hedging. Is there -- in that 50%, is there a big difference between your hedges between ERCOT and PJM? Are they both around 50% or...

好的。我猜還有兩個關於對沖的其他問題。在這 50% 中，ERCOT 和 PJM 之間的對沖是否有很大差異？他們都是50%左右還是...

Yes, Steve, we weren't planning to comment on specifically by region on that front. But obviously, those are our 2 biggest portfolios so I would just leave it at that. I think it depends on the depth in the market and where we feel we can comfortably move some of the volume. And Steve, I do want to correct 1 thing I shared a minute ago. I was 1 file off as I was trying to respond to your question. We were closer around a 25% hedge at the end of the year in 2023, and that's moved up closer to the 50%. So I was trying to be a little bit too nimble in pulling out my information.

是的，史蒂夫，我們不打算在這方面具體地按地區發表評論。但顯然，這是我們最大的兩個投資組合，所以我就這樣吧。我認為這取決於市場的深度以及我們認為可以輕鬆轉移部分交易量的位置。史蒂夫，我確實想糾正我一分鐘前分享的一件事。當我試圖回答你的問題時，我已經離開了。到 2023 年底，我們對沖的目標接近 25%，現在已經接近 50%。所以我在提取資訊時試著變得有點過於靈活。

Yes, no worries. Directionally correct. Okay. And then just we've been getting a lot of questions on nuclear fuel with the current law being passed. Just could you comment on how you're positioned on enriched uranium and the like, that would be helpful.

是的，不用擔心。方向正確。好的。隨著現行法律的通過，我們收到了許多有關核燃料的問題。您能否評論一下您對濃縮鈾等的看法，這將會有所幫助。

Sure. Yes, we have -- Steve, we have secured the supply physically for the outages all the way through 2027 and substantially financially. There's a few of our products that have some index pricing to it. And we are significantly hedged into 2028 as well. So we feel really good about fueling the 6 units over this planning horizon. With the Russian ban, with an uncertain or to be determined waiver process, I should say, we're very active in the discussions just to make sure that there's ample liquidity in the market as folks will look at these disruptions potentially, and it can cause the spot prices to move up considerably.

當然。是的，我們已經——史蒂夫，我們已經確保了 2027 年停電期間的實體供應和財務保障。我們的一些產品有一些指數定價。我們也對 2028 年進行了大幅對沖。因此，我們對在這個規劃範圍內為 6 台機組提供燃料感到非常滿意。我應該說，由於俄羅斯的禁令，以及不確定或待確定的豁免程序，我們非常積極地進行討論，只是為了確保市場上有充足的流動性，因為人們會潛在地考慮這些幹擾，而且它可以導致現貨價格大幅上漲。

We're fairly well hedged in the financial range. We're kind of looking at a $7 over the whole kind of time period, including Energy Harbor and the Comanche Peak site. So we were a little bit further hedged out for the Texas site, a little bit more open on the back end with Energy Harbor. If we put it all together and locked it all down, it's roughly a $7 a megawatt hour average over that period.

我們在財務範圍內進行了相當好的對沖。我們預計整個時間段內的價格為 7 美元，包括能源港和科曼奇峰站點。因此，我們對德克薩斯州的站點進行了進一步的對沖，在能源港的後端更加開放。如果我們把所有這些放在一起並鎖定，那麼在此期間平均每兆瓦時約為 7 美元。

But the spot markets are in the $11 to $12 range, so DOE, with the additional funding of roughly $2.7 billion, we'll be looking to incentivize domestic production and we'll see how that develops. But that's probably going to take into that time frame of the end of this decade to see something physically materialize there. But I think we've done a good job of locking down some of these risks, both physically and financially, and that's embedded in the numbers we've provided today.

但現貨市場價格在 11 至 12 美元之間，因此能源部將透過約 27 億美元的額外資金來激勵國內生產，並觀察情況如何發展。但這可能要到本十年末的時間框架內才能看到一些實際成果在那裡實現。但我認為我們在鎖定其中一些風險方面做得很好，無論是在物理上還是在財務上，這都體現在我們今天提供的數字中。

The next question comes from Bill Appicelli with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的比爾·阿皮切利。

Most of my questions have been answered. But just on the retail side, can you remind us the average duration of the contracts and the ability to roll those prices forward as the wholesale prices go higher as we move through time?

我的大部分問題都得到了解答。但僅在零售方面，您能否提醒我們合約的平均期限以及隨著時間推移批發價格走高而將這些價格向前滾動的能力？

Sure. Yes, Bill. So the business contracts that we sell can be a duration of 1 to 2 years all the way up to 10 years. Now our portfolio is more skewed to the residential business, which I would say those tend to be 1- to 2-year contracts. Residential customers don't tend to have as much appetite for the longer-dated contracts. And so if you see a sustained higher price environment, you would expect the competitive market from a retail perspective to reflect the new cost of goods sold over time. And that would mean higher prices in a sustained high power market.

當然。是的，比爾。因此，我們出售的商業合約期限可以是 1 到 2 年，一直到 10 年。現在我們的投資組合更偏向住宅業務，我認為這些業務往往是 1 到 2 年的合約。住宅客戶往往對長期合約沒有太大興趣。因此，如果您看到持續較高的價格環境，您會期望從零售角度來看競爭市場會反映隨著時間的推移銷售商品的新成本。這意味著在持續的高功率市場中價格會更高。

It also has meant in the past lower prices, when you've seen lower power prices sustain themselves and retailers need to respond to that. I do believe that in this situation, this has been a relatively stable and steady build in power prices. So these aren't shock-driven like the polar vortex and even Winter Storm Uri, where there were large bills being sent by retailers that hadn't fully hedged. This has been more of a steady build, I think, more consistent with inflation that folks have been seeing in other categories that they procure.

在過去，這也意味著較低的價格，當你看到較低的電價持續存在時，零售商需要對此做出反應。我確實相信，在這種情況下，電價的上漲是相對穩定的。因此，這些事件並不像極地渦旋甚至冬季風暴烏裡那樣受到衝擊，在後者中，零售商發送了大筆賬單，但尚未完全對沖。我認為，這更像是一個穩定的成長，與人們在他們購買的其他類別中看到的通貨膨脹更加一致。

But from our integrated model standpoint, you would expect that after you get past the 1- to 2-year horizon, you start to reflect the higher or lower retail revenues associated with wholesale power costs. And we try to target more of a steady dollar per megawatt hour type margin in retail so that it's additive to whatever is happening on the wholesale side.

但從我們綜合模型的角度來看，您會期望在超過 1 到 2 年的時間範圍後，您開始反映與批發電力成本相關的更高或更低的零售收入。我們嘗試將零售業的每兆瓦時利潤率定為穩定的美元目標，以便對批發方面發生的情況進行補充。

That's very helpful. And then just one follow-up on that same topic. In terms of the -- given the population growth, can you just speak to your market share and the customer counts as you've seen a growing pool of potential customers in the state?

這非常有幫助。然後就同一主題進行一次後續行動。就人口成長而言，您能否談談您的市場份額和客戶數量，因為您看到該州的潛在客戶群不斷增長？

Sure, Bill. I'm going to ask Scott Hudson, our President of the Retail business is here, and I'll ask Scott to cover.

當然，比爾。我要請史考特‧哈德森（Scott Hudson）來，我們的零售業務總裁也在這裡，我會請史考特來報道。

Sure. Well, first of all, let me just touch on current retail performance. We really had strong performance in the quarter and year-over-year. We grew residential direct-to-consumer customer counts by 13%. That came not only from the Energy Harbor acquisition, and we had some really nice success in the market that just opened, but we're also growing these books across all markets sort of organically. So really nice growth rates in Texas around the population. As Jim mentioned earlier, roughly 1.5% to 2%. And it's our goal at retail to grow with the market or exceed that market and grow kind of market share.

當然。首先，讓我談談目前的零售業績。我們在本季和年比上確實表現強勁。我們的住宅直接面向消費者客戶數量增加了 13%。這不僅來自能源港收購，而且我們在剛開放的市場上取得了一些非常好的成功，而且我們還在所有市場上有機地發展這些書籍。德州的人口成長率非常好。正如吉姆之前提到的，大約是 1.5% 到 2%。我們零售業的目標是與市場一起成長或超越該市場並增加一定的市場份額。

So we have a very large flagship brand with TXU Energy that holds significant share in the ERCOT market, but we also have 5 other brands that continue to complement one another. And our goal is sort of optimizing those brands by targeting them towards specific populations. It really is that coordination and sort of our use of advanced analytics to understand what populations, what brands and what particular products that allow us to continue to grow in these markets.

因此，我們擁有一個非常大的旗艦品牌 TXU Energy，在 ERCOT 市場中佔有重要份額，但我們還有其他 5 個品牌繼續互相補充。我們的目標是透過針對特定人群來優化這些品牌。正是這種協調和我們使用高級分析來了解哪些人群、哪些品牌和哪些特定產品使我們能夠在這些市場中繼續成長。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回吉姆·伯克（Jim Burke）發表閉幕詞。

Yes. Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and I again want to thank the Vistra team, which includes our new members in Ohio and Pennsylvania. And we are very excited about our platform and our unique growth opportunities. The S&P 500 inclusion is a great milestone and our future looks bright. We appreciate your interest and investment in Vistra, and we look forward to visiting soon. Have a great day. Thank you.

是的。謝謝大家加入我們，我要再次感謝瑞致達團隊，其中包括我們在俄亥俄州和賓州的新成員。我們對我們的平台和獨特的成長機會感到非常興奮。納入 S&P 500 指數是一個偉大的里程碑，我們的未來一片光明。我們感謝您對瑞致達的興趣和投資，我們期待很快能再次光臨。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。