Vistra Corp (VST) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Vistra's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安，歡迎參加 Vistra 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

At this time I'd like to turn the floor over to Eric Micek, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Eric Micek。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our first-quarter 2025 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

早安，感謝您參加 Vistra 的投資者網路廣播，討論我們的 2025 年第一季業績。我們今天的討論正在透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係部分進行現場直播。您還可以在那裡找到今天的投資者介紹和收益報告的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra's senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天主持電話會議的是 Vistra 總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke；以及 Vistra 執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。如有需要，Vistra 的其他高階主管也會加入他們，在今天電話會議的第二部分解答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All references to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth throughout this presentation refer to ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth.

我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益報告、演示和其他事項都提到了某些非公認會計準則財務指標。本簡報中所有對調整後 EBITDA 和成長前調整後自由現金流的引用均指持續經營調整後 EBITDA 和成長前持續經營調整後自由現金流。

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix of the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.

收益報告和投資者介紹附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳信息，該附錄可在 Vistra 網站的投資者關係部分找到。此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至今天為止合理的假設。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

此類前瞻性陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

I encourage all listeners to review the Safe Harbor statements included on slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

我鼓勵所有聽眾閱讀我們網站上投資者簡報第 2 張投影片中的安全港聲明，這些聲明解釋了前瞻性陳述的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非 GAAP 財務指標的使用。

I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

現在我將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆·伯克。

Thank you, Eric. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our first-quarter 2025 operational and financial results. 2025 is off to a strong start for Vistra. We remain excited about the demand growth trends we are seeing across our markets, and we believe Vistra is poised to serve the growing needs of customers in numerous ways. While there has been a bit of turbulence the last few months in the macro environment, the administration is prioritizing AI and attempting to find ways to unlock America's leadership in this area.

謝謝你，埃里克。早安，感謝您加入我們討論 2025 年第一季的營運和財務表現。 2025 年對於 Vistra 來說是一個強勁的開端。我們對整個市場中看到的需求成長趨勢感到興奮，我們相信 Vistra 已準備好以多種方式滿足客戶日益增長的需求。儘管過去幾個月宏觀環境出現了一些動盪，但政府仍將人工智慧列為優先事項，並試圖找到方法來釋放美國在該領域的領導地位。

The hyperscalers have continued to affirm or even increase their CapEx investment levels with respect to data center investments. We believe to meet this growing load, it will require increased power generation not only new assets, but existing assets as well.

超大規模企業持續確認甚至增加其在資料中心投資方面的資本支出投資水準。我們相信，為了滿足日益增長的負荷，不僅需要增加新資產的發電量，還需要增加現有資產的發電量。

While there are policy challenges to solve, we see a growing willingness on the part of all stakeholders to come together on solutions that will serve large new loads while minimizing impacts for existing customers. Vistra is very well positioned to be a leader with respect to these solutions and to benefit from the tailwinds in our sector.

雖然存在一些政策挑戰需要解決，但我們看到所有利害關係人越來越願意共同努力，尋找解決方案，以滿足大量新負載的需求，同時最大限度地減少對現有客戶的影響。Vistra 在這些解決方案方面處於領先地位，並且能夠從我們行業的順風中受益。

Beginning on slide 5, the team worked diligently across the business to maintain last year's strong momentum into 2025. As you can see from our results, our team was able to deliver achieving adjusted EBITDA of $1.240 billion for the quarter.

從第 5 張投影片開始，團隊在整個業務中勤奮工作，以將去年的強勁勢頭保持到 2025 年。從我們的結果可以看出，我們的團隊本季實現了 12.4 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Consistent execution from generation, commercial and retail was key to this success, highlighting the strength of our integrated business model and our one team approach. We continue to believe that a diversified portfolio of generation assets, including nuclear and gas, combined with a best-in-class retail business and a strong commercial set of capabilities creates a superior and resilient business model for navigating volatile power markets.

發電、商業和零售領域的一致執行是這項成功的關鍵，凸顯了我們的綜合業務模式和一個團隊方法的優勢。我們始終相信，包括核能和天然氣在內的多元化發電資產組合，加上一流的零售業務和強大的商業能力，能夠創造出卓越而有彈性的商業模式，以應對動盪的電力市場。

We are reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3 billion to $3.6 billion, both introduced on our third-quarter 2024 call.

我們重申 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 的指導範圍為 55 億美元至 61 億美元，增長前調整後自由現金流的指導範圍為 30 億美元至 36 億美元，這兩項指導範圍均是在我們 2024 年第三季電話會議上提出的。

Moving to 2026. While we have not updated our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity, we remain confident in our ability to deliver significantly above the floor of $6 billion. Our confidence in our ability to deliver this outlook is primarily underpinned by our continued strong operational performance and our comprehensive hedging program, where we have successfully hedged approximately 95% of our expected generation over the 2025 to 2026 time frame. We continue to believe our comprehensive hedging program, which focuses on locking in value during periods of volatility, ensures a more stable and resilient earnings stream across varying economic cycles.

預計到 2026 年。雖然我們尚未更新 2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 中點機會，但我們仍有信心實現遠高於 60 億美元底線的目標。我們對實現這一前景的能力充滿信心，這主要得益於我們持續強勁的營運業績和全面的對沖計劃，在該計劃中，我們已成功對沖了 2025 年至 2026 年期間預計發電量的約 95%。我們始終相信，我們的綜合對沖計劃專注於在波動時期鎖定價值，確保在不同的經濟週期中獲得更穩定、更有彈性的收益流。

Turning to slide 6. Our four strategic priorities continue to be central to our long-term success while driving strong operational and financial performance. As highlighted earlier, our integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program delivered consistent results and enhanced visibility into our earnings potential while providing a significant downside protection to our near-term outlook.

翻到幻燈片 6。我們的四大策略重點持續成為我們長期成功的核心，同時推動強勁的營運和財務表現。如前所述，我們的綜合業務模式和全面的對沖計劃帶來了持續的成果，提高了盈利潛力的可見性，同時為我們的短期前景提供了顯著的下行保護。

The excellent teamwork across our business is central to the successful execution of our strategy. Operationally, our generation team achieved another strong quarter of commercial availability at approximately 95%, enabling us to perform for our customers during multiple winter storms in both our PJM and ERCOT markets. On the retail side, we achieved another quarter of organic growth in the Texas market after a strong 2024, demonstrating the consistency and strength of our retail business.

我們整個業務的出色團隊合作對於成功執行我們的策略至關重要。在營運方面，我們的發電團隊又一個季度實現了強勁的商業可用性，約為 95%，使我們能夠在 PJM 和 ERCOT 市場的多次冬季風暴期間為客戶提供服務。在零售方面，繼 2024 年強勁成長之後，我們在德州市場又實現了一個季度的有機成長，證明了我們零售業務的一致性和實力。

Switching to capital allocation. We maintain a disciplined approach of returning capital to shareholders, investing in select growth projects that achieve mid to high teens returns on capital and maintaining a strong balance sheet with a long-term net leverage target of less than 3 times.

轉向資本配置。我們堅持嚴謹的方針，向股東返還資本，投資於實現中高水平資本回報率的精選增長項目，並保持強勁的資產負債表，長期淨槓桿率目標低於 3 倍。

As part of this approach, we continue to execute the capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021. Since that time, we have returned approximately $6.3 billion to our investors through share repurchases and common stock dividends.

作為這種方法的一部分，我們將繼續執行 2021 年第四季制定的資本回報計畫。自那時起，我們已透過股票回購和普通股股息向投資者返還了約 63 億美元。

We grew our zero carbon business, including through the acquisition of Energy Harbor and we achieved our long-term leverage target. As part of this program, we expect to return at least an incremental $2 billion in total through share repurchases and dividends through the remainder of 2025 and 2026.

我們發展了零碳業務，包括透過收購 Energy Harbor，並實現了長期槓桿目標。作為該計劃的一部分，我們預計在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年期間透過股票回購和股息累積返還至少 20 億美元。

On the subject of growth, we have two equipment queue positions for our Permian 1 and Permian 2 peakers, and we have an attractive cost profile given the timing of when we place the orders. We believe these projects with build cost of approximately $1,000 per kilowatt.

在成長方面，我們為二疊紀 1 號和二疊紀 2 號峰值機組配備了兩個設備隊列位置，並且考慮到我們下訂單的時間，我們的成本狀況具有吸引力。我們認為這些項目的建設成本約為每千瓦 1,000 美元。

Our advantage relative to current estimates for peakers or more than $1,500 per kilowatt. We will continue to evaluate the returns for these projects and assess market reforms, including legislative activity in Texas and elsewhere as we determine our best path forward.

與目前對峰值電廠的估計相比，我們的優勢是每千瓦時超過 1,500 美元。我們將繼續評估這些項目的回報並評估市場改革，包括德克薩斯州和其他地方的立法活動，以確定最佳前進道路。

With respect to the strategic energy transition, we continue to execute on our strategy of utilizing existing land and interconnects to opportunistically complete solar and energy storage projects. This quarter, we continue the construction on our Oak Hill, Texas and Pulaski, Illinois sites in support of our contracts with Amazon and Microsoft, respectively.

關於戰略能源轉型，我們繼續執行利用現有土地和互連設施來抓住機會完成太陽能和能源儲存專案的策略。本季度，我們繼續在德克薩斯州橡樹山和伊利諾伊州普拉斯基的工廠進行建設，以分別支持我們與亞馬遜和微軟簽訂的合約。

Once online, these facilities were at over 600 megawatts of renewable capacity to our portfolio. Our Oak Hill site is approximately 90% complete and on track for our fourth-quarter 2025 commercial operations date. The Pulaski site is approximately 20% complete and on track for our fourth-quarter 2026 commercial operations date.

一旦上線，這些設施將為我們的投資組合帶來超過 600 兆瓦的再生能源容量。我們的 Oak Hill 工廠已完成約 90%，預計將於 2025 年第四季投入商業營運。普拉斯基工廠目前已完成約 20%，預計 2026 年第四季投入商業營運。

We also began mobilizing for construction on our (inaudible) Newton battery and storage site in Illinois. This site will add over 50 megawatts to the region with a planned commercial operations date in 2026.

我們也開始動員起來，在伊利諾伊州建造我們的（聽不清楚）牛頓電池和儲存站。該電站將為該地區增加超過 50 兆瓦的電力，並計劃於 2026 年投入商業營運。

Importantly, cost structures for these projects remain insulated from recently announced tariffs. Moving to our nuclear portfolio. Feasibility studies are underway for potential nuclear uprates. As we noted last quarter, initial estimates indicate the potential operates across our nuclear fleet approximately 10%. We expect to finalize these studies over the next year with target online dates in the early 2030s. You can expect future updates from us as we evaluate these opportunities and prioritize projects.

重要的是，這些項目的成本結構不受最近宣布的關稅的影響。轉向我們的核能組合。目前正在進行核能升級的可行性研究。正如我們上個季度所指出的，初步估計表明，我們核電廠的潛在運作率約為 10%。我們預計在明年完成這些研究，目標上線日期為 2030 年代初。當我們評估這些機會並確定專案優先順序時，您可以期待我們的未來更新。

Moving to slide 7, we continue to see electricity load growth as providing a structural tailwind for our sector. Similar to the summer and winter peak load growth highlighted in our fourth-quarter results call, quarterly weather-normalized load in the PJM and ERCOT markets continues to see accelerating growth trends.

轉到第 7 張投影片，我們繼續看到電力負荷成長為我們的產業提供了結構性順風。與我們在第四季度業績電話會議上強調的夏季和冬季尖峰負載成長類似，PJM 和 ERCOT 市場的季度天氣標準化負載繼續呈現加速成長趨勢。

Our analysis suggests the sources of demand growth are durable and diversified across industries with data center power demand being a key driver, but not the only one. Importantly, electricity demand growth has historically proven to be fairly inelastic over varying economic cycles and we don't see recent concerns around economic growth impacting the structural change in demand that we see in today's power markets.

我們的分析表明，需求成長的來源是持久的，並且遍布各個行業，其中資料中心電力需求是一個關鍵驅動因素，但不是唯一的驅動因素。重要的是，歷史證明，在不同的經濟週期中，電力需求成長相當缺乏彈性，而且我們不認為近期對經濟成長的擔憂會影響當今電力市場的需求結構性變化。

While this growth provides an exciting opportunity for Vistra to serve customers in new and varied ways, the wide range of projections has garnered the attention of policymakers across the country not only in competitive markets, but in vertically integrated markets as well. We continue to believe the actual level of load growth will compound annually in a low to mid-single-digits range through 2030 across our markets.

雖然這種成長為 Vistra 以全新和多樣化的方式服務客戶提供了令人興奮的機會，但廣泛的預測不僅在競爭激烈的市場，而且在垂直整合的市場，也引起了全國各地政策制定者的關注。我們仍然相信，到 2030 年，我們所有市場的實際負荷成長水準每年將保持在低至中等個位數的範圍內。

This is consistent with what we shared last year on our Q1 results call, and now we see this dynamic playing out. While this is a strong level of growth compared to the past 20 years in most areas of the country, we believe this demand can be reliably and cost effectively served.

這與我們去年在第一季業績電話會議上分享的內容一致，現在我們看到了這種動態正在發揮作用。雖然與過去 20 年全國大部分地區相比，這是一個強勁的成長水平，但我們相信，這種需求可以得到可靠且經濟有效的滿足。

Because grids are built to serve the highest demand during so-called super peak hours, the electric grid remains underutilized for most hours in the year. ERCOT is a perfect example where peak load has been approximately 85 gigawatts, but the average load is approximately 53 gigawatts. We think this excess capacity during most days of the year provides a unique opportunity to meet a large portion of the pending load growth with existing capacity.

由於電網是為了滿足所謂的超級高峰時段的最高需求而建造的，因此電網在一年中的大部分時間內都未被充分利用。ERCOT 就是一個很好的例子，其尖峰負載約為 85 千兆瓦，但平均負載約為 53 千兆瓦。我們認為，一年中大多數日子裡的這種過剩產能提供了一個獨特的機會，可以利用現有產能來滿足很大一部分待處理的負載成長。

In the 1% or less of the hours that are super peak hours, which typically occur in peak summer or winter weather, there are relatively straightforward solutions like demand response, use of on-site backup generation at the customer's location and higher utilization of existing assets to meet these needs.

在 1% 或更少的超高峰時段（通常發生在夏季或冬季高峰天氣）中，有相對簡單的解決方案，例如需求響應、在客戶所在地使用現場備用發電以及提高現有資產的利用率來滿足這些需求。

It is our view this combination can allow for new load to come into our markets in an orderly fashion and be served cost-effectively. Over time, as the load continues to grow, there will be time for additional investment in generation and transmission to serve customer needs.

我們認為，這種組合可以讓新負載有序地進入我們的市場，並以經濟高效的方式提供服務。隨著時間的推移，隨著負載的不斷增長，將有時間對發電和輸電進行額外投資以滿足客戶的需求。

Importantly, given the market backdrop and the load growth materializing in the near term, existing dispatchable assets will be essential to delivering the resource adequacy grid operators and customers expect. We believe Vistra with its large and flexible fleet of generation assets combined with own sites that can bring new generation is well positioned for this environment.

重要的是，考慮到市場背景和近期出現的負載成長，現有的可調度資產對於實現電網營運商和客戶期望的資源充足性至關重要。我們相信，Vistra 憑藉其龐大而靈活的發電資產組合以及能夠帶來新發電量的自有站點，在這種環境下佔據了有利地位。

Our large CCGT fleet was nearly 20 gigawatts of total capacity, which currently operates at average utilization rates of approximately 55% to 60% can run at substantially higher capacity factors, improving grid utilization and lowering unit costs for customers. Our approximately 2 gigawatts of simple cycle peakers have the quick start capabilities to ramp up as load materializes, further contributing to grid reliability.

我們的大型 CCGT 機組總容量接近 20 吉瓦，目前平均利用率約為 55% 至 60%，可以以更高的容量係數運行，從而提高電網利用率並降低客戶的單位成本。我們的約 2 千兆瓦簡單循環峰值發電機具有快速啟動能力，可在負載實現時加速，進一步提高電網可靠性。

On development, the diversity of the Vistra generation portfolio allows for multiple types of capacity additions through both the expansion of existing assets and development of new projects, operates at existing gas plants in ERCOT, and the coal to gas conversion of our Coleto Creek plant represent near-term opportunities to add megawatts to the grid at attractive unit economics. Other opportunities like the previously mentioned Vistra zero or nuclear operate projects represent longer-term prospects for capacity additions.

在開發方面，Vistra 發電組合的多樣性允許透過擴大現有資產和開發新項目來增加多種類型的容量，在 ERCOT 現有的天然氣工廠運營，而我們的 Coleto Creek 工廠的煤轉氣代表了近期以有吸引力的單位經濟效益向電網增加兆瓦電力的機會。其他機會，例如前面提到的 Vistra 零排放或核能營運項目，代表了產能增加的長期前景。

Policymakers are also working on solutions to address the growing number of large loads that plan to connect to the grid. Importantly, whether these large loads connect directly on to the grid or co-locate with a power plant the amount of power they consume and the net supply demand balance are the same in either scenario.

政策制定者也在研究解決方案，以應對計劃接入電網的越來越多的大負載問題。重要的是，無論這些大負載是直接連接到電網還是與發電廠位於同一地點，它們消耗的電量和淨供需平衡在任何一種情況下都是相同的。

We will continue to work with policymakers and large load customers on solutions that meet all customer needs, including those of our residential and small commercial customers. We continue to advance our discussions with large load customers on various power solutions and we are optimistic about regulatory developments and our ability to serve these customers.

我們將繼續與政策制定者和大負荷客戶合作，尋找滿足所有客戶需求的解決方案，包括住宅和小型商業客戶的需求。我們繼續與大負荷客戶就各種電力解決方案進行討論，我們對監管發展和為這些客戶提供服務的能力持樂觀態度。

With the Texas legislative session ending in early June, and the PJM regulatory process related to the FERC colocation show cause order potentially concluding this summer, we are ready to navigate the evolving landscape and believe we are well positioned for success. Vistra remains committed to supporting a reliable, affordable and sustainable grid, and our integrated business is poised to serve customers with growing needs.

隨著德州立法會議於 6 月初結束，以及與 FERC 主機託管出示原因令相關的 PJM 監管流程可能在今年夏天結束，我們已準備好應對不斷變化的形勢，並相信我們已準備好迎接成功。Vistra 始終致力於支援可靠、經濟且可持續的電網，我們的綜合業務已準備好為日益增長的需求提供服務。

Now, I'll turn it over to Kris to provide more details on our first-quarter results, outlook and capital allocation. Kris?

現在，我將把時間交給克里斯，讓他提供有關我們第一季業績、展望和資本配置的更多詳細資訊。克里斯？

Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 9. Vistra delivered first-quarter results in 2025 that were approximately 53% higher year over year compared to Q1 2024 and achieving adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.240 billion, including $1.056 billion from generation and $184 million from retail. The significant year-over-year increase was partially driven by the inclusion of two additional months of Energy Harbor generation retail results, given the transaction closed March 1 of last year.

謝謝你，吉姆。翻到第 9 張投影片。Vistra 2025 年第一季業績與 2024 年第一季相比年增約 53%，調整後 EBITDA 約為 12.4 億美元，其中發電業務 10.56 億美元，零售業務 1.84 億美元。鑑於交易於去年 3 月 1 日完成，同比大幅增長的部分原因是納入了額外兩個月的 Energy Harbor 發電零售業績。

Generation also benefited from our comprehensive hedging program, which delivered average realized prices nearly $4 per megawatt hour higher compared to the same quarter last year. A better weather backdrop in January and February also led to higher capacity factors across our PJM and ERCOT assets.

發電也受益於我們的綜合對沖計劃，與去年同期相比，平均實現價格高出每兆瓦時近 4 美元。1 月和 2 月天氣狀況較好也導致我們的 PJM 和 ERCOT 資產的容量係數更高。

Turning to retail. The business continues to realize benefits from strong customer counts, margins and supply management as our consistent product development, combined with strong brand recognition drove higher year-over-year customer additions in our key markets.

轉向零售業。由於我們持續的產品開發和強大的品牌認知度推動了我們主要市場客戶數量的同比增長，公司業務繼續從強大的客戶數量、利潤率和供應管理中獲益。

Similar to generation, retail results were also bolstered by favorable weather in our Texas and Midwest Northeast markets compared to the first quarter last year, which was negatively impacted by the warmest winter on record.

與發電業務類似，與去年第一季相比，零售業績也受到德州和中西部東北部市場良好天氣的提振，而去年第一季則受到了有史以來最溫暖冬季的負面影響。

As a reminder, due to higher hedge power costs in the winter and summer months, we expect the majority of adjusted EBITDA for retail to be realized in the second and fourth quarters. Depending on the sake of those power costs throughout any given year, the expected relative contribution from each quarter is subject to change. Notably, our expectation heading into the year for Q1 2025 was significantly higher than the first-quarter results for retail in 2024.

提醒一下，由於冬季和夏季對沖電力成本較高，我們預計零售業的大部分調整後 EBITDA 將在第二季和第四季實現。根據任何一年中這些電力成本的情況，每個季度的預期相對貢獻可能會發生變化。值得注意的是，我們對 2025 年第一季的預期明顯高於 2024 年第一季的零售業績。

Moving to slide 10. We are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, and our adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3 billion to $3.6 billion. We believe the reaffirmed outlook for 2025 demonstrates the earnings resiliency afforded by the diversified model, especially in light of our outage at Martin Lake Unit 1 and our Moss Landing batteries being off-line.

移至投影片 10。我們重申 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍為 55 億美元至 61 億美元，調整後成長前自由現金流指引範圍為 30 億美元至 36 億美元。我們相信，2025 年的重申前景顯示了多元化模式所帶來的獲利彈性，特別是考慮到馬丁湖 1 號機組停電以及莫斯蘭丁電池離線。

Turning to our outlook for 2026. As Jim mentioned, we continue to see our outlook develop positively. We are increasingly confident in an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity outcome for 2026 approaching mid- to high $6 billion and even possibly $7 billion.

展望 2026 年。正如吉姆所提到的，我們繼續看到我們的前景朝著積極的方向發展。我們越來越有信心，2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 中點機會結果將接近 60 億美元中高水平，甚至可能達到 70 億美元。

We expect to provide guidance for 2026 later in the year, likely on our third-quarter call. As always, our guidance and near-term outlook remains supported by our comprehensive hedging program, for 2025, our gross margin remains highly hedged with approximately 100% of our expected generation already sold. For 2026, our hedge ratio increased from approximately 80% to approximately 90% as our commercial team took advantage of market opportunities.

我們預計將在今年稍後（可能是在第三季電話會議上）提供 2026 年的指導。像往常一樣，我們的指導和近期前景仍然受到我們全面對沖計劃的支持，到 2025 年，我們的毛利率仍將得到高度對沖，預計發電量的約 100% 已經售出。2026 年，由於我們的商業團隊抓住了市場機遇，我們的對沖比率從約 80% 增加到約 90%。

Finally, turning to slide 11. We provide an update on the execution of our capital allocation plan. Since beginning the program in November 2021, we have reduced our shares outstanding by approximately 30%, repurchasing approximately 163 million shares at an average price per share of just under $32. This reduction has notably led to a 49% increase in our dividend per share since the dividend paid in Q4 2021 to the dividend paid in Q1 2025.

最後，翻到第 11 張投影片。我們提供有關資本配置計劃執行情況的最新資訊。自 2021 年 11 月啟動該計畫以來，我們已將流通股減少了約 30%，以每股略低於 32 美元的平均價格回購了約 1.63 億股。此次減幅顯著導致我們的每股股息從 2021 年第四季支付的股息增加至 2025 年第一季支付的股息，增幅達 49%。

Regarding our balance sheet, Vistra's net leverage ratio currently sits just under 3 times adjusted EBITDA, in line with our long-term target of below 3 times. In terms of future capital deployment, we will maintain a disciplined approach towards further deleveraging investment for growth and shareholder return.

關於我們的資產負債表，Vistra 的淨槓桿率目前略低於調整後 EBITDA 的 3 倍，符合我們低於 3 倍的長期目標。在未來的資本配置方面，我們將保持嚴謹的態度，進一步降低投資槓桿，促進成長和股東回報。

We expect to invest just over $700 million on solar and energy storage projects in 2025, including the previously discussed solar projects supported by contracts with Amazon and Microsoft along with our Newton site, which we began preparing for construction this quarter.

我們預計 2025 年將在太陽能和能源儲存項目上投資略高於 7 億美元，其中包括之前討論過的由與亞馬遜和微軟簽訂的合約支持的太陽能項目以及我們本季度開始準備建設的牛頓工廠。

Based on our current project pipeline, we anticipate a reduction in solar and energy storage development CapEx for 2026 subject to change with any new offtake agreements. As a reminder, we expect to fund a significant portion of our growth expenditures with third-party capital, including nonrecourse loans.

根據我們目前的專案儲備，我們預計 2026 年太陽能和能源儲存開發資本支出將減少，但可能會因任何新的承購協議而發生變化。提醒一下，我們預計透過第三方資本（包括無追索權貸款）為我們成長支出的很大一部分提供資金。

We continue to believe these projects are a great opportunity to leverage existing sites to increase the proportion of our contracted EBITDA at attractive returns while limiting the impact of our cash available for allocation.

我們仍然相信，這些項目是一個絕佳的機會，可以利用現有場地來增加我們合約 EBITDA 的比例，獲得可觀的回報，同時限制可供分配的現金的影響。

Lastly, we believe Vistra continues to be well positioned to create sustained long-term value. The resilience of our business is evident in our strong results and reaffirmed earnings outlook amidst increased market volatility.

最後，我們相信 Vistra 將繼續處於有利地位，創造持續的長期價值。在市場波動加劇的情況下，我們強勁的業績和重申的獲利前景證明了我們業務的韌性。

Our team is focused on our core mission of lighting up lives and powering a better way forward. We remain confident in our ability to be part of the solution to address our country's growing power demand in the coming years, and we look forward to the months and years ahead.

我們的團隊專注於我們的核心使命：點亮生活，為更好的前進提供動力。我們仍然相信，我們有能力在未來幾年內解決我國日益增長的電力需求，並且我們期待未來的歲月。

With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

接線員，現在我們可以開始回答問題了。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，現在我們開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Shahriar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.

Shahriar Pourreza，古根漢合夥人公司。

Hey guys, good morning.

大家好，早安。

Hey Shah, good morning.

嘿，Shah，早安。

Morning Jim. Jim, I couldn't get a sense on the prepareds. Just on Comanche Peak deal conversations. Are you waiting specifically for colocations at this point? Or could you be moving ahead with front of the meter and virtual PPAs in the interim?

早安，吉姆。吉姆，我無法理解準備工作。僅就科曼奇峰交易進行對話。現在您是否專門等待主機託管？或者您可以在此期間推進電錶前端和虛擬 PPA 的發展？

And the reason why I ask is one of your peers noted yesterday that FLM and BTM pricing is harmonizing in their customer conversations, which I think is counter to what this year has been messaging in the past. So just a little bit of a sense there? Thanks.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為您的一位同事昨天指出，FLM 和 BTM 定價在與客戶的對話中是一致的，我認為這與今年過去所傳達的訊息相反。那麼，您有一點點感覺嗎？謝謝。

Well, Shar, I think what I've tried to mention on previous calls, and I know we've covered a lot of ground really for the past years' worth of calls, that no two deals really are going to look alike. I think the customer needs really dictate that.

好吧，沙爾，我想我在之前的電話會議中已經嘗試提到過，而且我知道我們在過去幾年的電話會議中已經討論了很多內容，那就是沒有兩筆交易看起來會完全相同。我認為客戶的需求確實決定了這一點。

And for some areas of the country, the front of the meter may actually be as good of an opportunity set as colocation. From our perspective, when we looked at the deals that we're working on with many customers, they're still looking at colocation as a potential speed advantage. And again, that's going to depend on which part of the country and how clear are the rules.

對於該國的一些地區來說，電錶前端實際上​​可能是一個與主機託管一樣好的機會。從我們的角度來看，當我們審視與許多客戶達成的交易時，他們仍然將主機託管視為潛在的速度優勢。再次強調，這取決於該國的哪個地區以及規則的明確程度。

I think from our team's perspective, the activity level has not slowed down. We remain very engaged with a number of these opportunities, and we're very pleased with the progress we're making. There is still a desire for clarity because as we mentioned on previous calls, you have to contract through these deals 10, 20 years, and you contracts need to anticipate how rules and regulations are going to play out.

我認為從我們團隊的角度來看，活動量並沒有放緩。我們仍然積極參與其中的許多機會，並對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。人們仍然希望獲得明確的信息，因為正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，你必須簽訂 10 年、20 年的合同，而且你的合同需要預測規則和條例將如何發揮作用。

So to the extent the rules and regulations can become clear, it will make the ease of contracting these, I think, a little bit more straightforward. As far as pricing, a lot of these customers look at alternatives around the country. So what is the next best alternative to either a further meter location or colocation with existing assets, and that includes colocation potentially with even new assets.

因此，我認為，只要規則和條例變得明確，簽訂合約就會變得更簡單一些。至於定價，許多客戶都會考慮全國各地的替代品。那麼，除了進一步設定電錶位置或與現有資產共置（甚至可能與新資產共置）之外，下一個最佳替代方案是什麼？

All of that creates a price spectrum. And I think we've talked about the fact that there is going to be a spectrum of prices out there. I don't think there's enough deals signed to say that one deal is going to equal another deal because they're just really, frankly, haven't been that many deals announced. And so, I think it's too early to say that for the meter and behind the meter is harmonizing from our perspective. But I also think no two deals are going to look exactly the same.

所有這些都創造了一個價格範圍。我認為我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即價格將有一個範圍。我認為簽署的協議數量不足以說明一項協議會等同於另一項協議，因為坦白說，實際上還沒有那麼多協議被宣布。因此，我認為從我們的角度來看，現在說儀表和儀表後面已經協調還為時過早。但我也認為沒有兩筆交易會完全相同。

And I don't think we should expect that. These are sophisticated customers the markets all have different nuances in terms of their design and they're able to deliver for the customer. And I think our ability to price that is going to be our ability to work with that customer that we can meet their needs. And so what I'm excited about is that the hyperscalers have either reaffirmed or increased their CapEx. So we're still talking about nearly $2 trillion between now and 2030 that the major four players intend to spend.

我認為我們不應該期待這一點。這些都是成熟的客戶，各個市場在設計方面都有不同的細微差別，並且能夠為客戶提供服務。我認為我們的定價能力將決定我們與客戶合作的能力，以滿足他們的需求。因此，令我興奮的是，超大規模企業要不是重申，就是增加了他們的資本支出。因此，我們仍在討論從現在到 2030 年四大參與者打算花費的近 2 兆美元。

And the administration is prioritizing AI. They're setting a tone that we've got to win the AI rate. So we've got to make colocation work. We've got to make front of the meter work. We need to be able to build new assets as well as utilize existing. And so that's how we're approaching it, Shar.

政府正在優先考慮人工智慧。他們定下了基調：我們必須贏得人工智慧率。所以我們必須讓主機代管發揮作用。我們必須讓計費表前面的工作順利進行。我們需要能夠建立新的資產並利用現有的資產。這就是我們處理這個問題的方式，Shar。

Got it. And that's actually very consistent as in the past. And then Jim, just lastly, I know this is not an easy question to answer, but just on general deal time line at this point, does SB-6 finalization, does that unlock a Comanche deal?

知道了。這實際上與過去非常一致。然後吉姆，最後，我知道這不是一個容易回答的問題，但就目前的一般交易時間表而言，SB-6 的最終確定是否會解鎖科曼奇交易？

I think SB-6, there in result of SB-6 will unlock a lot of things. We don't know how SB-6 is going to frankly turn out. And there's a hearing today. It's the first time it's being picked up in the house. And as we've covered in previous calls, Texas could attract a lot of load.

我認為 SB-6，SB-6 的結果將解鎖很多東西。坦白說，我們不知道 SB-6 最終會如何發展。今天有一場聽證會。這是它第一次在家裡被撿到。正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，德克薩斯州可能會吸引大量負載。

And if we're able to lay out rules and regulations. And I think that could come to peak deal, but I think it could unlock a lot of deals, including front of the meter deals. SB-6 deals with both. And so we're active SB-6 as are our peers as the large customer coalition is very active on this. So the session ends in early June.

如果我們能夠制定規則和條例。我認為這可能會導致交易量達到頂峰，但我認為這也可能促成很多交易，包括電錶前交易。SB-6 處理這兩方面的問題。因此，我們和同行一樣積極參與 SB-6，因為大型客戶聯盟在這方面非常活躍。因此會議將於六月初結束。

The goal obviously would be to get clarity around that frame. And I would expect that you will see some things announced shortly thereafter with the view that the deal parameters and the kinds of things that folks are trying to contract around would become more clear.

顯然，目標是使該框架更加清晰。我希望你們不久後會看到一些消息被宣布，以便交易參數和人們試圖簽訂合約的內容變得更加清晰。

Got it. Perfect, thanks again Jim very helpful color. Appreciate it as always.

知道了。完美，再次感謝 Jim 非常有幫助的顏色。一如既往地欣賞。

Thank you, Shar.

謝謝你，莎爾。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies LLC.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith，Jefferies LLC。

Good morning, team. Thank you guys very much. Appreciate the time. Maybe just to follow up a little bit here on what you guys are saying about '26 year and $7 billion. Can you guys comment briefly on '27? I mean the curves have been moving around, obviously, the opportunities that you guys are seeing also moving around. Any -- shall we say initial commentary that you guys would really be willing to provide?

早安，各位團隊。非常感謝你們。珍惜時間。也許只是想稍微跟進一下你們所說的「26 年和 70 億美元」的情況。你們能簡單評論一下 '27 嗎？我的意思是曲線一直在移動，顯然，你們看到的機會也在移動。任何——我們應該說你們真的願意提供初步評論嗎？

Yeah Julien, it has been. I think I used the word turbulent in the prepared remarks. So it is moving around. I think the good news is that turbulence has showed strength before some of the concerns around the economy, and that has bounced back. And so our team has been actively hedging, as you've heard, the update that Kris gave.

是的，朱利安，確實如此。我想我在準備好的發言中使用了「動盪」這個詞。所以它在四處移動。我認為好消息是，在一些經濟問題出現之前，動盪已經顯示出強度，並且已經反彈。因此，正如您所聽到的，我們的團隊一直在積極應對克里斯提供的最新消息。

And I think I mentioned on the last call and Chris was given a nod to this in his remarks, '26 is looking strong, and we see '27 and even '28, we see that holding similar strength. We're not hedging, obviously, as far out as you'd like to because the depth of the market isn't always there to be able to hedge as far out.

我想我在上次電話會議上提到過，克里斯在他的演講中也對此表示贊同，26 年看起來很強勁，我們看到 27 年甚至 28 年也保持著類似的實力。顯然，我們不會像您希望的那樣進行對沖，因為市場的深度並不總是能夠實現對沖。

But the earnings profile is strong. So even with some of the anticipated coal retirements that we have, we see the strength of our current asset base becoming more valuable. The curves are reflecting that, and I think that the earnings power looks very consistent from our point of view.

但獲利狀況強勁。因此，即使我們預期部分煤炭企業將退出市場，我們目前的資產基礎仍將變得更有價值。曲線反映了這一點，我認為從我們的角度來看盈利能力看起來非常一致。

Got it. So just to make sure I understand. You presume had some degree out in '27 here incrementally. But even with the open position, the mark-to-market somewhat similar to what you're seeing on the '26 as it stands today. I'll only hold it to you today.

知道了。只是為了確保我理解了。您假設在 27 年這裡已經逐步取得了一定程度的進展。但即使持倉未平倉，市價也與您今天在 26 號所見的情況有些相似。今天我只為你保留它。

Thank you, Julien. I appreciate that. And the answer is yes.

謝謝你，朱利安。我很感激。答案是肯定的。

All right. Awesome. That's my two questions. Thank you guys very much. I appreciate it.

好的。驚人的。這就是我的兩個問題。非常感謝你們。我很感激。

Angie Storozynski, Seaport.

安吉·斯托羅津斯基，海港。

Thank you. I'm just going to make a comment at first. So when we listen to your prepared remarks, it's hard to tell that you have this upside potential probably once in a generation coming from AI. I mean I know it might be just a different style of communications. But again, it would be hard to guess that there is this upside potential ahead of you.

謝謝。我首先只想發表一點評論。因此，當我們聽到您準備好的發言時，很難說您擁有這種可能在一代人中只有一次的來自人工智慧的上升潛力。我的意思是我知道這可能只是一種不同的溝通方式。但同樣，你很難猜測到自己面前還有這樣的上行潛力。

And so again, is it just because you're trying to manage our expectations? Is it that something has changed? Is it that you don't want to commit to a certain time line. Again, I'm at a loss why you don't sound a little more beat.

那麼，這僅僅是因為您想控制我們的期望嗎？是不是有什麼事情改變了？是不是你不想遵守某個特定的時間表？再次，我不明白為什麼你聽起來不那麼有節奏。

Angie, I appreciate that. I would say, we take this responsibility of how we think about messaging to our shareholders and how the complexity of this marketplace is a reality. And I also think these large-scale customers and we see it in the interconnect cues throughout the country as we've communicated before, they have lots of opportunities.

安吉，我很感激。我想說，我們肩負著向股東傳達訊息的責任，思考如何應對這個市場的複雜性。而且我還認為，正如我們之前所溝通的那樣，我們在全國各地的互聯線索中看到這些大型客戶，他們有很多機會。

We think these interconnect I think all of our peers have described this at some level. They may be overstated anywhere from 3 to 5 times what might actually materialize either in regulated markets or competitive markets.

我們認為這些互連我認為我們所有的同行都在某種程度上描述過這一點。它們可能被誇大到受監管市場或競爭市場中實際實現目標的 3 到 5 倍。

So I just respect the customer's ability to develop on multiple fronts around country, it's our job to compete to win that deal. And that's exactly what we're wired to do. But we respect the fact that we have competitors and we respect the fact that even regulated markets are competing for this loan. I mean competition benefits customers, and I fully respect that. I spent 25 years in the competitive market side, and I understand the ferocity of competition.

因此，我尊重客戶在全國多個領域發展的能力，我們的工作就是競爭贏得這筆交易。這正是我們天生就該做的事。但我們尊重我們有競爭對手的事實，我們尊重受監管的市場也在競爭這筆貸款的事實。我的意思是競爭有利於客戶，我完全尊重這一點。我在競爭激烈的市場中度過了25年，我了解競爭的激烈程度。

So I have had a style here, and it's been, I think, consistent from a team perspective that when we have something that's ready to disclose, we will. And I can assure you of that. and we're working extremely hard to have something to disclose.

所以我在這裡有一種風格，而且我認為，從團隊的角度來看，這種風格是一致的，當我們有東西準備披露時，我們就會披露。我可以向你保證這一點。我們正在盡最大努力來獲得一些可以披露的資訊。

But until that happens, it's just not been as my style to predict just given the fact that these customers are sophisticated have choice that until you're at the finish line, you're just not there yet. So that's, I think, Angie, the color that I would provide.

但在此之前，我無法按照我的風格進行預測，因為這些客戶都很成熟，他們有選擇地認為，直到你到達終點線，你才會到達。所以，安吉，我想這就是我會提供的顏色。

Okay. So just taking maybe a step forward. For example, your '26 guidance, you're very heavily hedged. You have a capacity auction that comes with a pricing floor. I mean the math is relatively simple looking at your disclosures and again, incorporating even the floor, and that would be in excess of that $6 billion-plus you're showing I understand that Kris alluded to it could be even ahead of $7 billion.

好的。因此，也許只是向前踏了一步。例如，您的 26 年指導方針中，您採取了非常嚴格的對沖措施。您有一個帶有定價底線的容量拍賣。我的意思是，從您的披露資訊來看，數學計算相對簡單，再一次，加上底線，這將超過您所展示的 60 多億美元，我理解 Kris 暗示它甚至可能超過 70 億美元。

And again, you are it's unlikely that '26 is going to be impacted by any of the potential AI-related deals and yet you're not updating the numbers.

再說一次，你不太可能受到任何潛在的人工智慧相關交易的影響，但你卻沒有更新數據。

Angie, I think we covered this a little bit last quarter. I think from our perspective, there are still some uncertainty. So we are not ready to provide actual guidance. I mean you wouldn't expect us to provide guidance for next year. And so there -- those things again, we still have some open length, we still have the capacity auction to clear.

安吉，我想我們上個季度已經討論過這個問題了。我認為從我們的角度來看，仍然存在一些不確定性。所以我們還沒準備好提供實際指導。我的意思是你不會指望我們為明年提供指導。所以 — — 再次強調，我們仍然有一些開放的長度，我們仍然有容量拍賣需要清理。

I mean, there is a distance between the floor and the cap. And we still have some hedges to perfect. So we're not ready to provide guidance. We've tried to give as much color as we can. We just don't think it makes sense to get back on schedule, where we provide guidance, any update for the current year and then guidance for the next succeeding year.

我的意思是，地板和蓋子之間有一段距離。我們還有一些對沖措施需要完善。所以我們還沒準備好提供指導。我們盡力提供盡可能多的色彩。我們只是認為回到原定計劃是沒有意義的，我們提供指導，對當前年度的任何更新以及對下一年度的指導。

And then maybe in addition to that, midpoint opportunity outlook for the following year after that. We expect to do all that on the third-quarter call. So we're just trying to get back on that schedule where we don't update guidance every quarter or -- but we're still, as you said in our remarks, we've believed in pretty hard to say that we're significantly above $6 billion. We just haven't changed the number on the page. And I think you'll see us, again, return to that third quarter update -- formal updates for guidance in multiple years.

除此之外，或許還有接下來一年的中點機會展望。我們希望在第三季電話會議上完成所有這些工作。因此，我們只是試圖回到那個時間表，即我們不會每季更新指導，或者 - 但正如你在我們的評論中所說的那樣，我們仍然很難說我們已經遠遠超過 60 億美元。我們只是沒有改變頁面上的數字。我想你會再次看到我們回到第三季的更新——多年指導的正式更新。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Hey, Jeremy, good morning.

嘿，傑里米，早安。

Just want to start off with, I think, kind of a two-pronged question, if I could. Just wondering, with PJM and the auction collar now approved, just how you think that sets up new build incentives PJM the next few years here? And wanted to contrast this backdrop in PJM versus Texas?

如果可以的話，我想先問一個雙管齊下的問題。只是想知道，PJM 和拍賣區間現已獲得批准，您認為這將如何為未來幾年的 PJM 新建設置激勵機制？並想對比 PJM 與德州的背景嗎？

And wondering if you could expand a bit more, I guess, on the Texas backdrop, as you see in data center proliferation there and the state desires to be a big player. Just wondering if you could give us your thoughts on the contract there?

我想知道您是否可以進一步擴展一下，我想，在德克薩斯州的背景下，正如您所看到的，那裡的數據中心激增，而且該州希望成為一個大參與者。只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對那裡的合約的看法？

Sure. Look, the clear that occurred last July in PJM was a good clear relative to the three previous clears. And we talked about that, that's a material increase in the capacity clear and it actually garnered attention of a number of policymakers.

當然。你看，去年 7 月在 PJM 發生的清除相對於之前的三次清除來說是一次很好的清除。我們討論過這一點，這顯然是產能的實質增加，並且實際上引起了許多政策制定者的關注。

And again, a lot of that is relative to the prior clears that had occurred that were quite low and drove a lot of retirements in PJM. One thing that I think is interesting is that one clear, I think, has actually provided some incentive for this reliability resource initiative, which garnered a lot of attention in PJM or 27 gigawatts applied at about 9,000 megawatts or 9 gigawatts awarded.

再次強調，這在很大程度上與先前發生的清算有關，先前的清算水準相當低，導致 PJM 出現大量退休現象。我認為有趣的一件事是，我認為，一個明確的事實實際上為這一可靠性資源計劃提供了一些激勵，該計劃在 PJM 引起了很多關注，或申請了 27 千兆瓦，約 9,000 兆瓦，或授予了 9 千兆瓦。

And that's really on the basis of we have one clear that was in the 270 range and now we have a cap in the floor, which means the boom-bust cycle of the auction is a little bit more stabilized. And I think that sends a good investment signal.

這實際上是基於我們有一個明確的 270 範圍，現在我們有一個上限，這意味著拍賣的繁榮-蕭條週期更加穩定。我認為這發出了一個良好的投資訊號。

You might recall, over the last 10 years, 30 gigawatts of gas-fired generation have been built in PJM through the capacity auction. So I think if anything, price signals matter, and price signals have shown in PJM that when they're appropriate, people bring investment when they're too low, people retire assets.

您可能還記得，在過去的 10 年裡，PJM 透過容量拍賣建造了 30 千兆瓦的燃氣發電廠。因此，我認為價格訊號很重要，而價格訊號在 PJM 中已經顯示，當價格合適時，人們會帶來投資；當價格過低時，人們就會撤回資產。

And I think that's normal. I also think price signals matter on the energy side, not just the capacity side. And that price signal for energy can also encourage customers to conserve and effectively help the grid manage supply demand.

我認為這很正常。我還認為價格訊號在能源方面很重要，而不僅僅是容量方面。而且能源價格訊號還可以鼓勵客戶節約能源，並有效幫助電網管理供需。

So I think PJM with the cap in the floor for just an [X2] auctions is a good bridge to what we hope the quadrennial review and what I think could happen in the future is the continued signals that PJM wants to send to build new resources, knowing that there's still a lot of coal that's going to retire in PJM.

因此，我認為 PJM 對 [X2] 拍賣設置底線上限，這對於我們希望進行的四年審查來說是一個很好的橋樑，我認為未來可能發生的情況是 PJM 希望發出建設新資源的持續信號，因為我們知道 PJM 仍有大量煤炭即將退役。

In ERCOT, I would say there has not been the same level of commitment to sending the price signal for dispatchable resources. There have been attempts for market reforms. Most of those have been put on hold. There's still a little bit of work to do on one of the key ancillaries, the DRRS ancillary, this dispatchable reliability reserve service. those details aren't known yet.

在 ERCOT，我想說，對於發送可調度資源的價格訊號的承諾程度並不相同。已經有人嘗試進行市場改革。其中大部分已被擱置。對於關鍵輔助設備之一，即 DRRS 輔助設備（可調度可靠性儲備服務），還有一些工作要做。這些細節目前還不清楚。

But I think from the standpoint of Texas is open for business, Texas wants people to invest. And what we've seen is that the batteries and the solar have been viewed as the better way to invest in generation in Texas. The question I think will be going forward if this data center load comes, it's our view, that the first almost 8 to 10 gigawatts of that can actually be served with the existing capacity already in ERCOT.

但我認為從德克薩斯州對商業開放的角度來看，德克薩斯州希望人們投資。我們看到，電池和太陽能被視為在德克薩斯州投資發電的更好方式。我認為問題在於，如果這個資料中心的負載到來，我們認為，其中最初的近 8 到 10 千兆瓦實際上可以透過 ERCOT 現有的容量來滿足。

And I think that's one of the key things that policymakers are looking at is, if we can bring the 10 gigawatts is what -- is really what our estimate of ERCOT might add in data center load between now and 2030. If we can bring that and utilize existing resources that all we need to worry about is the super peak hours. And there has been legislation in Texas offered to help customers use their backup generation in a way that would be helpful from a grid reliability perspective. And I think that's a key. I think that is a key to unlock.

我認為這是政策制定者正在考慮的關鍵問題之一，即我們是否能夠實現 10 千兆瓦的發電量——這實際上就是我們估計的 ERCOT 從現在到 2030 年可能會增加的資料中心負載。如果我們能夠實現這一點並利用現有資源，那麼我們需要擔心的就是高峰時段。德州已經出台立法，幫助客戶以有利於電網可靠性的方式使用備用發電。我認為這是關鍵。我認為那是一把打開鎖的鑰匙。

And the goal from an affordability standpoint for all these grids across the country ought to be that if capital investments have already been made in generation and capital investments have already been made in transmission and distribution as a society, we should fully utilize those resources because that's the lowest cost way to serve all customer classes and not just focus on new build transmission, new build generation because we have a lot of excess capacity on the grid as we see it.

從可負擔性角度來看，全國所有電網的目標應該是，如果已經在發電方面進行了資本投資，並且在輸電和配電方面已經進行了資本投資，那麼我們應該充分利用這些資源，因為這是服務所有客戶群體的最低成本方式，而不僅僅是關注新建輸電、新建發電，因為正如我們所見，電網上有很多過剩容量。

So we have talked about our peaker projects in Texas because we have a good queue position the economics don't quite pencil for the peakers yet. We're still going through the test process, and too early to say how that will turn out. But I do think the peakers probably make a little bit more sense than the combined cycle build at today's investment signals.

因此，我們討論了德克薩斯州的峰值項目，因為我們擁有良好的排隊位置，但經濟狀況尚未完全符合峰值項目的要求。我們仍在進行測試，現在說結果如何還為時過早。但我確實認為，從今天的投資訊號來看，高峰可能比聯合循環更有意義。

But obviously, it's a competitive market, so people can bring whatever resources they think makes sense. But that's how I would describe the policy environment at this point. And I'll turn it over to Stacey to see if he's got anything she'd like to add on color for those two markets.

但顯然，這是一個競爭激烈的市場，因此人們可以帶來任何他們認為有意義的資源。但這就是我目前對政策環境的描述。我將把它交給 Stacey，看看他是否有任何她想為這兩個市場添加的內容。

Yeah, sure. Well, I think Jim captured the key points, and I agree that Texas is focused on figuring out how to be a leader in that data center effort and attract the load growth that can cut those customers. And I think, what their (inaudible) with, as Jim referenced, really how to solve the very few hours of the year that we may not have excess capacity.

是的，當然。好吧，我認為吉姆抓住了關鍵點，我同意德克薩斯州專注於弄清楚如何成為資料中心工作的領導者並吸引可以減少這些客戶的負載成長。我認為，正如吉姆所提到的，他們真正想解決的是如何解決一年中我們可能沒有過剩產能的極少數時間的問題。

And I'm really pleased to see the efforts of the legislature to come up with bills that address that by giving, for example, customers that bring backup generation, some assurance that they can run that backup generation during great emergencies not be subject to environmental enforcement. I'm pleased to see the efforts of (inaudible) on things like HV14 where they were trying to give sport for the development of new nuclear.

我很高興看到立法機構努力提出法案來解決這個問題，例如，為那些使用備用發電設施的客戶保證，他們可以在重大緊急情況下運行備用發電設施，而不必受到環境執法的約束。我很高興看到（聽不清楚）在 HV14 等方面的努力，他們試圖為新核能的發展提供動力。

So I think there are some good efforts underway to ensure that Texas can continue to be a leader in these areas. With respect to PJM, we're very pleased with efforts in some of our states like Ohio to recognize the value of dispatchable generation to ensure that generators have the smoothest path possible to getting approval for new dispatchable generation and other types of projects that could bring megawatts to the grid. So I think we see a lot of efforts to recognize the value of reliability and dispatchable generation, and we continue to be highly engaged in those efforts.

因此我認為目前正在進行一些很好的努力以確保德克薩斯州能夠繼續在這些領域保持領先地位。關於 PJM，我們非常高興看到俄亥俄州等一些州努力認識到可調度發電的價值，以確保發電廠能夠以最順利的方式獲得新的可調度發電和其他類型項目的批准，從而為電網帶來兆瓦級電力。因此，我認為我們看到了很多努力來認識到可靠性和可調度發電的價值，並且我們將繼續積極參與這些努力。

Thank you, Stacey. (multiple speakers)

謝謝你，史黛西。（多位發言者）

Oh, go ahead, Mr. Smith.

哦，請說吧，史密斯先生。

Sorry, just one more question. Just wondering if when you're looking to sign new contracts for data centers, does that ever interfere with the ability for -- to conduct buybacks. I was just wondering about the pace of buybacks amidst this volatility?

抱歉，還有一個問題。只是想知道，當您希望簽署資料中心的新合約時，這是否會影響進行回購的能力。我只是想知道在這種波動中回購的速度如何？

Yeah. Thanks, Jeremy. I would say that our buyback program is it would not affect that. Our program is generally consistent. We expect to have a consistent in the market pursuant to a 10b5-1.

是的。謝謝，傑里米。我想說我們的回購計畫不會影響這一點。我們的計劃總體上是一致的。我們期望根據 10b5-1 在市場上保持一致。

And so the main goal is to maintain a consistent daily bid in the market. So we've been doing that pursuant to that 10b5-1 over time. And you can see that as you look back when we negotiated and announced the Energy Harbor deal or the purchase of the minority interest, we have never paused the share buyback program since we started it in 2021, and we don't expect to. So we keep it going through open closed windows and in periods where we might have material non-public information.

因此，主要目標是保持市場上每日一致的出價。因此，我們一直在按照 10b5-1 的規定進行這項工作。您可以看到，當您回顧我們談判並宣布 Energy Harbor 交易或購買少數股權時，自 2021 年啟動股票回購計畫以來，我們從未暫停過，而且我們預計也不會暫停。因此，我們會在可能擁有重大非公開資訊的期間，透過開放和關閉的視窗來保持這種狀態。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

Hey, thanks so much good morning.

嘿，非常感謝，早安。

Hey David, good morning.

嘿，大衛，早安。

Hey Jim, I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate on your outlook for market prices, I guess as you talk about, better utilizing your existing fleet, demand response, maybe backup generation and using that for the market. What does that mean for the outlook for power prices?

嘿，吉姆，我想知道你是否可以詳細說明你對市場價格的展望，我想正如你所說，更好地利用你現有的車隊、需求響應、或許是備用發電並將其用於市場。這對於電價前景意味著什麼？

Sure, David, it's one of the things that I think will help make sure the grid stays reliable is that these price signals, again, not just capacity, but energy drive behavior both on the supply side and the demand side. I think the key is that people recognize that signals do need to actually be sent, and there's always a policy desire to have low prices, and that's important from an affordability standpoint, but it also you have to have signals every now and again to ensure reliability.

當然，大衛，我認為有助於確保電網保持可靠的因素之一是這些價格訊號不僅僅是容量，而且還有供應方和需求方的能源驅動行為。我認為關鍵是人們認識到確實需要發出信號，而且政策總是希望降低價格，這從可負擔性的角度來看很重要，但你也必須時不時地發出信號以確保可靠性。

I think from our view, the forward curves still do not assume the level of build out from a data center standpoint. That we think the CapEx budgets for the hyper scalers suggest, and I think that's just a reluctance, I think, to one put those kind of bids in there at that point because it takes time to materialize.

我認為，從我們的角度來看，遠期曲線仍然沒有從資料中心的角度假設建設水準。我們認為超大規模企業的資本支出預算表明了這一點，我認為這只是人們不願意在那時提出這樣的出價，因為這需要時間來實現。

I mean, we're a year past the announcement of the first large co-location deal and it hasn't made it all the way through the approval process, at FERC, so things just take longer, but if the CapEx budgets play out the way we see them playing out, you're going to see the demand side build in forecasts that I don't think are reflective, even when we say 3% to 5% of a compound growth rate in ERCOT, we don't see that in the forward curves.

我的意思是，距離第一個大型共置交易的宣布已經過去了一年，但它還沒有通過聯邦能源管理委員會（FERC）的審批程序，所以事情需要更長的時間，但如果資本支出預算按照我們看到的方式發揮作用，你會看到需求方建立預測，我認為這些預測並不具有反映性，即使我們說 ERCOT 的複合增長率為 3% 到 5%。

Let alone the projections that we've seen come from the ISOs in various markets. So I think demand response is important, but demand response should be coming in at the price signal that it should come in at, which is usually higher than where real-time prices, have been settling for the last, one to two years. So I view those two things as complementary, David.

更不用說我們看到的來自各個市場 ISO 的預測。因此，我認為需求響應很重​​要，但需求響應應該按照其應有的價格訊號出現，這通常高於過去一到兩年的即時價格。因此我認為這兩件事是互補的，大衛。

I think backup generation is still an expensive asset to use, but it should be used when the grid needs it and that's usually in a higher price environment. That's how markets should work. And I think that is a well-functioning marketplace.

我認為備用發電仍然是一項昂貴的資產，但它應該在電網需要時使用，而且通常是在價格較高的環境中。市場就應該如此運作。我認為這是一個運作良好的市場。

And I think when you try to do it through mandates or alerts, I don't think you're going to get the same customer behavior because customers do respond to economic incentives, and that's the beauty, I think, of competitive markets is it does send that signal. I just don't think those signals are out there fully yet in the forward curves. It is our view.

我認為，當你嘗試透過授權或警報來做到這一點時，你不會得到相同的客戶行為，因為客戶確實會對經濟激勵做出反應，而我認為，競爭市場的魅力就在於它確實發出了這種信號。我只是認為這些訊號還沒有完全體現在遠期曲線中。這是我們的觀點。

Yeah, absolutely. No, thank you for that. And then, separately, I was wondering, Jim, how much time are you spending in DC recently, just given all the political gyrations going on, are there, what issues are you focused on most at the federal level? Curious whether you might be kind of making efforts to differentiate the IPP space on issues where you might have a different view from, say, the traditional regulated utility on federal issues here?

是的，絕對是如此。不，謝謝你。然後，另外，我想知道，吉姆，考慮到正在發生的所有政治動盪，您最近在華盛頓待了多長時間，您最關注聯邦層面的哪些問題？好奇您是否會努力區分 IPP 領域，在這些問題上您可能與傳統的受監管公用事業在聯邦問題上有不同的看法？

Yeah. Well, I do spend quite a bit of time in D.C. I think the idea that this administration has been looking to sort of unleash the American energy dominance council and look at how do we treat energy as a strategic resource. We have always talked about reliability, affordability, sustainability in that order, and that's how we've messaged for years. I think that's very consistent with the executive orders that have come out so far.

是的。嗯，我確實在華盛頓待了相當長一段時間。我認為本屆政府一直在尋求釋放美國能源主導委員會的力量，並研究如何將能源視為一種戰略資源。我們總是按照可靠性、可負擔性和可持續性的順序來談論，這也是我們多年來一直傳達的訊息。我認為這與迄今為止發布的行政命令非常一致。

What we're trying to do is look at how do the executive orders potentially then manifest themselves and whatever rules or laws that would ever -- that would spawn from those that can affect markets. It's my belief that the best design ultimately for this is to have markets basically do resource allocation in most categories, including electricity.

我們正在嘗試研究行政命令可能如何體現出來，以及這些命令將產生哪些可能影響市場的規則或法律。我相信，最終最好的設計是讓市場在大多數類別中（包括電力）進行資源配置。

It's not our philosophy that any of us are going to guess exactly what the winning technology is going to be what is the right level of investment. So I'm concerned that if people get approval to spend a lot of money and for some reason, it's more spent in infrastructure that is needed on a given time frame. Customers could bear that. Competitive markets put that risk on shareholders. I think that's where that risk belongs.

我們的理念是，任何人都無法準確猜測哪項技術會獲勝、適當的投資水準是多少。因此，我擔心，如果人們獲得批准花費大量資金，並且由於某種原因，更多的資金會花在特定時間範圍內所需的基礎設施上。顧客可以忍受這一點。競爭性的市場將這種風險轉嫁給了股東。我認為這就是風險所在。

And so our message and that -- the message of, I think, the competitive space is that let us do the best we can to meet customer needs and put shareholder capital at risk, and that's a different model than where the regulated market design is today.

因此，我們的資訊以及—我認為，競爭空間的資訊是，讓我們盡最大努力滿足客戶需求並讓股東資本承擔風險，這與當今受監管的市場設計模式不同。

And I do think that we're going to need transmission and distribution to be built. But as I've mentioned in my prepared remarks, there's a lot of capacity on the existing system. And if we can find the best places to unlock where that excess capacity is, that's a winner for everybody. And price signals will help do that, whether that's congestion price signals, capacity price signals or wholesale energy price signal.

我確實認為我們需要建造輸電和配電設施。但正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，現有系統的容量已經很大了。如果我們能夠找到釋放過剩產能的最佳途徑，那麼對每個人來說都是有利的。價格訊號將有助於實現這一點，無論是擁塞價格訊號、容量價格訊號或批發能源價格訊號。

So I'm spending a lot of time educating about the markets because this is a very fragmented industry, developed over 100 years into a highly fragmented space that I think is hard to create a one-size-fits-all policy.

因此，我花了很多時間去了解市場，因為這是一個非常分散的行業，經過 100 多年的發展，已經發展成為一個高度分散的領域，我認為很難制定一刀切的政策。

But since more than half the countries megawatt hours in wholesale or competitors, we have a huge playing field. And so I just want to make sure that we're able to tap that huge playing field in that, if we do this right, I think the competitive market should get more than their fair share of this low growth opportunity. And I think Texas has a chance to get more than its fair share of this loan growth opportunity coming from data centers.

但由於超過一半的國家兆瓦時的批發量或競爭對手的數量都很大，因此我們擁有巨大的競爭環境。因此，我只是想確保我們能夠利用這個巨大的競爭環境，如果我們做得對，我認為競爭市場應該在這個低成長機會中獲得超過應得的份額。我認為德州有機會從資料中心的貸款成長機會中獲得超過其應得份額的份額。

Okay. Great. Yeah, thank you for all the color. Appreciate it.

好的。偉大的。是的，謝謝你帶來的所有色彩。非常感謝。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.

史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼，沃爾夫研究公司。

Yeah, hi, good morning. For what it's worth, I think your under-promise over-deliver way of doing things is the best anyway. So I appreciate that. The -- I guess just first on the data center kind of demand. And maybe just to try to get a little better color on that, Jim, how would you characterize view your views on that today versus maybe the year-end call a couple of months ago?

是的，你好，早安。不管怎樣，我認為你的少承諾多兌現的做事方式是最好的。我很感激。我想首先要考慮的是資料中心的需求。也許只是為了更好地理解這一點，吉姆，您今天對此的看法與幾個月前的年終電話會議相比有何不同？

Because it seems like some better conviction on demand pricing tone, but just maybe characterize it relative to where your head was a couple of months ago on the year-end call?

因為這似乎對需求定價基調有更好的信心，但也許只是相對於幾個月前年終電話會議上你的想法來描述它？

Yeah. Perfect, Steve. Thank you. I actually have increasing confidence over the last couple of months and frankly, EBITDA over the last year. I think what's happened is folks again, shareholder capital is being used by these hyperscalers, which they don't take lightly and they are spending it and they're recommitting and they're increasing their expected levels of investment.

是的。太好了，史蒂夫。謝謝。事實上，過去幾個月我的信心不斷增強，坦白說，過去一年的 EBITDA 也是如此。我認為再次發生的事情是，股東資本被這些超大規模企業使用，他們對此非常重視，他們正在花掉這筆錢，他們正在重新承諾，他們正在增加預期的投資水平。

That gives us increasing confidence that there is going to be opportunity and then it's just where does that opportunity manifests itself. And to me, it all starts with a customer, and they are the targeted customer base that everybody is seeking to partner with.

這讓我們越來越有信心，機會將會存在，只是這個機會在哪裡顯現出來。對我來說，一切都始於客戶，他們是每個人都想與之合作的目標客戶群。

So in the last couple of months, of course, even if you go back earlier in the year in the D.C., I mean, there's just been this whole level of uncertainty. And I think the commitment through it, which we've kind of been down and back up again as a sector, I think, is highly encouraging. Having said that, we are talking about nearly $2 trillion of CapEx from these top 4 companies plus other capital others will spend and they need to be good stewards of that capital.

所以在過去的幾個月裡，當然，即使你回到今年早些時候的華盛頓特區，我的意思是，那裡一直存在著這種程度的不確定性。我認為，透過它所做出的承諾，對於我們這個行業來說，曾經經歷過起伏，但又再次回升，是非常令人鼓舞的。話雖如此，我們談論的是這四大公司的近 2 兆美元資本支出加上其他公司將花費的其他資本，他們需要妥善管理這些資本。

And I think the business model of AI is still proving itself out. I think that is -- folks have conviction, but everyone is looking for the conviction around the revenue models and the ultimate sustainability of those CapEx levels.

我認為人工智慧的商業模式仍在證明其有效性。我認為，人們有信念，但每個人都在尋求有關收入模式和資本支出水平最終可持續性的信念。

But given the level of interest and the discussions we're having and the stage at which our discussions are, we see increasing confidence from the customer base out there. And so I do think, Steve, that it's in a better place than probably where we were just a couple of months ago.

但考慮到我們的興趣程度和討論程度以及討論的階段，我們看到客戶群的信心正在增強。因此，史蒂夫，我確實認為，現在的情況可能比幾個月前更好。

Yeah. Okay. And then two other questions. First, just on the given the range that you're talking about for 2026, Kris, just could you give us a sense of cash available beyond the kind of current buyback commitment just because you would think there'd be more room on your our credit metrics at those -- at that kind of EBITDA level unallocated cash.

是的。好的。還有另外兩個問題。首先，就您所說的 2026 年的範圍而言，Kris，您能否告訴我們除了當前回購承諾之外的可用現金情況，因為您認為在這種 EBITDA 水平的未分配現金下，我們的信用指標會有更多的空間。

Yeah, Steve, as you say the cash generation power of the business continues to support a lot of optionality. If you -- we've said this -- we've talked about this before, we'll stick with the lower projections. But even if you just look at our public -- what's out there publicly, if you assume $5.8 billion of EBITDA in 2025, and $6 billion -- only $6 billion in 2026, and you apply the 55% to 60% conversion rate that we talk about.

是的，史蒂夫，正如你所說，企業的現金創造能力繼續支持許多可選性。如果您 — — 我們說過 — — 我們之前討論過這個問題，我們會堅持較低的預測。但即使你只看我們的公眾——公開的信息，如果你假設 2025 年的 EBITDA 為 58 億美元，2026 年為 60 億美元——只有 60 億美元，並且你應用我們談論的 55% 到 60% 的轉換率。

I mean, you can get there through all of our commitments to about $1.5 billion of cash that we have not yet allocated to anything for '25 and '26. So as you increase that number from 2026, and you continue to put the 55% to 60% conversion ratio. You can see that number getting into the $2 billion range of cash that we still have to allocate.

我的意思是，您可以透過我們對約 15 億美元現金的所有承諾來實現這一目標，而我們尚未為 25 年和 26 年分配任何資金。因此，從 2026 年開始增加這個數字，轉換率將繼續保持在 55% 至 60% 之間。您可以看到，我們仍需分配 20 億美元的現金。

Okay. And then last question, just with the Trump administration executive order on call. Any kind of updated thoughts on your call retirement plans? Could any of them -- I know there's other rules and commitments related to those, but just could you give us any color on that?

好的。最後一個問題，關於川普政府的行政命令。對於您的退休計畫有什麼最新的想法嗎？其中任何一個——我知道還有與此相關的其他規則和承諾，但您能否給我們一些詳細資訊？

Yeah, Steve, I think the most immediate impact that we see is the potential for some of the mats, the mercury compliance to be pushed out a few years, which would really affect Martin Lake and Oak Grove, which are our two large Texas sites that don't have retirement dates.

是的，史蒂夫，我認為我們看到的最直接的影響是一些墊子的潛在汞合規性可能會被推遲幾年，這將真正影響馬丁湖和橡樹林，這兩個是我們在德克薩斯州沒有退役日期的大型工廠。

As you know, the three sites in Illinois and the one in Ohio, those retirements were driven by other state and federal environmental rules, which are currently still in place. So unless there's a change there, the executive orders in and of themselves don't change that time line. We are looking at some potentially being coal to gas conversions. There's also a notion in the executive orders about they want to see some equivalent megawatt hour outputs if you do that conversion.

如您所知，伊利諾伊州的三個站點和俄亥俄州的一個站點的退役是由其他州和聯邦環境法規推動的，這些法規目前仍然有效。因此，除非發生變化，否則行政命令本身不會改變該時間表。我們正在研究一些潛在的煤炭轉化為天然氣的方法。行政命令中也提到，如果進行這種轉換，他們希望看到一些等效兆瓦時的產出。

So there is a lot going on there, Steve. And I think it's pretty dynamic. But certainly, the emphasis on reliable resources sticking around longer is something that we have messaged for quite some time, but the framework needs to acknowledge there still are existing laws that we have to abide by, and we'll see how that develops.

所以那裡發生了很多事情，史蒂夫。我認為它非常有活力。但當然，我們長期以來一直在強調可靠資源的長期存在，但框架需要承認我們仍然必須遵守現行法律，我們將拭​​目以待其發展。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

Durgesh Chopra，Evercore ISI。

Hey team, good morning. Thanks for giving me time. (multiple speakers) -- hey, Jim, thank you, sir. Just your thoughts on Senate Bill 6 as it currently says in the past, you've kind of talked about the load curtailment provision. You've highlighted that -- just trying to gauge that, if it passes in its current form, what does that mean for future data center deals? Is that a bottleneck? So just any thoughts or color you could share there, please?

嘿，團隊，早安。謝謝你給我時間。 （多位發言者）－嘿，吉姆，謝謝你，先生。您對參議院第 6 號法案的看法正如過去所說，您已經談到了負載削減條款。您已經強調了這一點——只是想衡量一下，如果它以目前的形式通過，這對未來的資料中心交易意味著什麼？這是一個瓶頸嗎？那麼，您能分享一下任何想法或色彩嗎？

Sure, well, if it passes in its current form, I do think that the concerns that we've expressed before, we still share. I think the large customer collisions, particularly data center coalitions, are expressing some concerns around things like the disconnect switch.

當然，如果它以目前的形式通過，我確實認為我們仍然會認同我們之前表達過的擔憂。我認為大型客戶衝突，特別是資料中心聯盟，對斷路開關等問題表達了一些擔憂。

And again, the control that they would like to have their own assets, they're willing to participate and so the demand response and the load shifting to manage a reliable grid. But I do think there are concerns that the customers have around some of these provisions.

再次，他們希望擁有自己的資產控制權，他們願意參與需求響應和負載轉移，以管理可靠的電網。但我確實認為客戶對其中一些規定有擔憂。

From our perspective, again, colocation, we think, is an advantage to meeting customer needs and colocation is still getting a separate kind of focus in the version that the Senate passed. And our view is that since the reliability situation is the same between or front of the meter and collocated load, in fact, we don't have to build out the same level of transmission to serve it. It's actually a very efficient way to serve these large look customers and again, take advantage of assets already being paid for by customers on the grid.

從我們的角度來看，我們認為主機託管有利於滿足客戶需求，而且在參議院通過的版本中，主機託管仍然受到單獨的關注。我們的觀點是，由於電錶之間或電錶前端與並置負載之間的可靠性情況相同，因此實際上我們不必建造相同級別的傳輸來為其提供服務。這實際上是一種為這些大型客戶提供服務非常有效的方式，並且再次利用電網客戶已經支付的資產。

Having said that, if SB6 moves forward in its current form, folks are innovative, folks work through it, we'll be one of those companies working through it. But as I said, I think Texas has a chance to get a disproportionate share of this large load, and these are huge economic development opportunities.

話雖如此，如果 SB6 以目前的形式向前發展，人們就會創新，人們會努力解決它，我們會成為那些努力解決它問題的公司之一。但正如我所說，我認為德克薩斯州有機會獲得這一巨大負荷的不成比例的份額，這些都是巨大的經濟發展機會。

So I think if Senate Bill 6 is considered in the house and there are some revisions that we can work through in the house, I think it would set Texas up extremely well to win the AI race. But as I mentioned, the hearings today, it's too early to predict where that goes. But I think our comments from previous calls still are relevant, but I think there's time to work through some of the potential changes.

因此，我認為，如果參議院第 6 號法案在眾議院得到審議，並且有一些我們可以在眾議院通過的修改，我認為這將為德克薩斯州贏得人工智慧競賽奠定良好的基礎。但正如我所提到的，今天的聽證會，現在預測結果還為時過早。但我認為我們之前電話會議中的評論仍然有意義，但我認為還有時間來處理一些潛在的變化。

Got it, Jim. That's very clear. Then just really quickly, if I may, pivoting to PJM parts, just --are you in settlement discussions currently with the T&D operators there in that region? Where does that sit? And then as we think about Texas here -- getting resolved in June. What do you think is a time line for getting some clarity there in the PJM area, in particular. Thank you.

明白了，吉姆。這非常清楚。那麼，如果可以的話，我很快就轉到 PJM 部分，您目前是否正在與該地區的 T&D 運營商進行和解談判？它位於哪裡？然後，當我們考慮德克薩斯州的問題時——問題將在六月解決。您認為在 PJM 地區實現明確目標的具體時間表是怎樣的。謝謝。

Sure. Well, we actually did not, it's just interesting, but we didn't file sort of seeking settlement discussions. We thought the record was ample at FERC, and the back and forth between PJM and FERC set well, we thought for a decision to be made. So we're always willing and able to get into any settlement discussions, but this has been a long time coming. And I think everyone is ready to move forward. And I think that's the most important thing.

當然。嗯，我們實際上沒有，這只是有趣的，但我們沒有提出尋求和解討論的建議。我們認為 FERC 的記錄已經足夠充分，而且 PJM 和 FERC 之間的反覆交鋒也已取得良好效果，我們認為應該做出決定。因此，我們始終願意並且能夠參與任何和解談判，但這已經醞釀了很長時間。我認為每個人都已準備好繼續前進。我認為這是最重要的事情。

And I think we still expect that whether there are settlement discussions or not, we could see clarity coming in the next, I think, couple 3 months as possible. If the settlement discussions drag it out from there, I'd say kind of shame on all of us as an industry because again, we have to meet customer needs and these customers are moving forward. So we should be able to get there is our view.

我認為我們仍然預計，無論是否有和解談判，我們都能在未來幾個月內看到明確的結果。如果和解談判拖延下去，我想說我們整個產業都該感到羞恥，因為我們必須滿足客戶的需求，而這些客戶正在向前邁進。所以我們應該能夠實現這個目標，這是我們的觀點。

Senate Bill 6, as you know, would be wrapped up hopefully by the end of the session here in Texas in the first week of June. So I think over the course of this summer, I think we have a chance for both markets to potentially have more clarity than they have at the moment. Then I'll turn it over to Stacey to see if there's anything she'd like to add.

如您所知，參議院第 6 號法案預計將在 6 月第一周德克薩斯州會議結束時通過。因此，我認為今年夏天，兩個市場都有機會變得比現在更清晰。然後我會把它交給史泰西，看看她是否還有什麼要補充的。

Yeah. The only thing I'd add on the FERC colocation docket is, as Jim said, we did not participate in the request for settlement discussions, but we did provide some very specific solutions to FERC that we think they can simply adopt on the record and move us forward.

是的。我在 FERC 主機託管案卷上唯一要補充的是，正如 Jim 所說，我們沒有參與和解討論的請求，但我們確實向 FERC 提供了一些非常具體的解決方案，我們認為他們可以簡單地記錄在案並推動我們前進。

And that's what we're interested in is speed of resolution. It's notable that the transmission owners they filed -- and they did not file in support of settlement discussions either. They said they were open to them as we all would be if settlement discussions are ordered but their position is that no changes are needed to the tariffs.

我們感興趣的是解決速度。值得注意的是，輸電業主提交的文件——他們也沒有支持和解談判。他們表示，如果能夠下令進行和解談判，他們和我們一樣都願意接受這些建議，但他們的立場是不需要改變關稅。

So I think FERC has a clear record before it of the party's various positions, including PJM, and we would really urge FERC to make a decision on the very full and complete record before it.

因此，我認為 FERC 面前有關於該黨各種立場（包括 PJM）的清晰記錄，我們真的敦促 FERC 根據面前的非常完整記錄做出決定。

And I'd just add, Durgesh, that FERC did acknowledge our filing that colocation is specifically allowed in the PJM marketplace. We just need to work out the tariff issues. And I think that was sort of lost in the process with the back and forth. But colocation is a viable model. We just have to get the details ironed out.

我還要補充一點，Durgesh，FERC 確實承認了我們的文件，即 PJM 市場特別允許主機託管。我們只需要解決關稅問題。我認為這是在來回反覆的過程中失去的。但主機代管是一種可行的模式。我們只是需要解決細節問題。

Yes. That was clear. They were clearly supportive of colocation. That's good. Stacey, is there a time line when work needs to rule on this thing by as they currently -- I mean there's some deadlines. I'm sorry, I'm forgetting. But just what's the next milestone for the product to kind of take action here?

是的。這很清楚。他們顯然支持共置。那挺好的。史黛西，目前，工作部門需要對此事作出裁決嗎？是否有一個時間表——我的意思是有一些最後期限。抱歉，我忘了。但是，該產品的下一個里程碑是什麼呢？

Yeah. I think, Durgesh, that the FERC has a lot of flexibility in terms of when it rules. But I think what we would point to is FERC itself saying that it understands the need for urgency here and that it would hope to rule within a couple of months of completion of the filings.

是的。杜爾格甚，我認為聯邦能源管理委員會在裁決時間方面具有很大的靈活性。但我認為我們要指出的是，聯邦能源管理委員會本身表示，它理解這裡的緊迫性，並希望在提交文件後的幾個月內做出裁決。

And so if it does not go down the settlement path, then I think we could see a result a ruling this summer. If it does order settlement, that probably does take an additional 60 to 90 days before FERC comes back in, it makes a decision as a result of any settlement discussion.

因此，如果不走和解之路，我認為我們可能會在今年夏天看到裁決結果。如果確實下令和解，那麼可能還需要 60 到 90 天的時間，聯邦能源管理委員會才會回來，根據和解討論的結果做出決定。

So again, that's why our preference is for FERC to rule on the record before it, but if they decide to order settlement discussions, we'll, of course, participate in and try to reach the best solution that we can. But I think if they were to order settlement discussions, you'd see a result more like at the earliest late summer or maybe fall.

所以，這就是為什麼我們更傾向於聯邦能源管理委員會對其面前的記錄作出裁決，但如果他們決定下令進行和解討論，我們當然會參與並盡力達成最佳解決方案。但我認為，如果他們下令進行和解談判，你最早會在夏末或秋季看到結果。

Thank you so much. Really appreciate the time.

太感謝了。真的很感謝你抽出時間。

Thank you, Durgesh.

謝謝你，杜爾格甚。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that we'll conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Jim Burke for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節就到此結束。我想把發言權交還給吉姆·伯克，請他做最後發言。

Yeah. Thanks, Jamie. I want to thank everybody for joining. As we covered 2025 is off to a fast start. And I really want to thank our team for their continued execution and service to our customers and our communities. It's an exciting time for the industry and it's certainly for Vistra, and we have a lot to do. We look forward to the next update. Thanks for joining, and have a great day.

是的。謝謝，傑米。我要感謝大家的加入。正如我們所說，2025 年將迎來快速發展。我真的要感謝我們的團隊為我們的客戶和社區持續提供服務。對於行業來說這是一個激動人心的時刻，對於 Vistra 來說更是如此，我們有很多事情要做。我們期待下一次更新。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議就到此結束。我們非常感謝您的出席。現在您可以斷開線路了。