Vistra Corp (VST) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Vistra's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Vistra 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的演示結束後，將有機會提問。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Micek。請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our second quarter 2025 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

早安，感謝您參加 Vistra 的投資者網路廣播，討論我們的 2025 年第二季業績。我們今天的討論將在我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的「投資者關係」板塊進行現場直播。您也可以在那裡找到今天的投資者簡報和收益報告的副本。

Leading the call today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other Vistra's Senior Executives to address questions during the second part of today's call, as necessary.

今天主持電話會議的是 Vistra 總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke 和 Vistra 執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。如有需要，Vistra 的其他高階主管將加入他們，在今天電話會議的第二部分解答問題。

Earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed in the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All references to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth throughout this presentation refer to ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth.

今天電話會議上討論的收益發布、演示和其他事項包括對某些非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。本簡報中所有對調整後 EBITDA 和成長前調整後自由現金流的引用均指持續經營調整後 EBITDA 和成長前持續經營調整後自由現金流。

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date.

收益報告和投資者介紹附錄中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳信息，該附錄可在 Vistra 網站的投資者關係部分找到。此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們認為截至今天為止合理的假設。

Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

此類前瞻性陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾閱讀我們網站上投資者簡報第 2 張投影片中的安全港聲明，其中解釋了前瞻性陳述的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非 GAAP 財務指標的使用。

I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

現在我將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆·伯克。

Thank you, Eric. Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter 2025 operational and financial results. The business continues to perform well and with our strong year-to-date results, we remain on track to achieve a record result for the company in 2025. The trends in demand growth continue to persist in our major markets.

謝謝你，埃里克。早安，感謝您加入我們討論 2025 年第二季的營運和財務表現。業務持續表現良好，憑藉今年迄今強勁的業績，我們仍有望在 2025 年為公司創造創紀錄的業績。我們的主要市場需求持續保持成長趨勢。

The recent experience in PJM in the Northeast is a great example with the late June heat wave resulting in PJM load hitting the highest level in 14 years, in New York, the highest in 10 years and in New England, the highest in 12 years. The administration continues to pursue multiple avenues to accelerate America's development of AI, and the electricity sources needed to power it.

近期美國東北部 PJM 地區的經驗就是一個很好的例子，6 月底的熱浪導致 PJM 地區用電負荷達到 14 年來的最高水平，紐約達到 10 年來的最高水平，新英格蘭地區達到 12 年來的最高水平。政府繼續尋求多種途徑來加速美國人工智慧的發展以及為其提供動力所需的電力來源。

We continue to believe this will require a diversified solution with capacity coming from all types of Generation sources, particularly dispatchable across all major power markets. We believe the challenge of meeting expected load growth in a way that minimizes the impacts to all customers is solvable. And as I will outline later, we believe Vistra is well positioned to be a leader in developing these solutions for the energy needs of our customers and our nation.

我們仍然相信，這將需要一個多樣化的解決方案，其容量來自所有類型的發電源，特別是可在所有主要電力市場調度的容量。我們相信，以盡量減少對所有客戶的影響的方式滿足預期的負荷增長這一挑戰是可以解決的。正如我稍後將概述的那樣，我們相信，Vistra 完全有能力成為開發這些解決方案以滿足我們客戶和國家能源需求的領導者。

Starting on slide 5. The team has worked hard across the business and achieved adjusted EBITDA of $1.349 billion for the quarter. The consistent execution from our team across Generation, commercial and Retail delivered reliable power and customer solutions that reflect the strength of our business model.

從投影片 5 開始。整個團隊在整個業務範圍內努力工作，本季實現了 13.49 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們的團隊在發電、商業和零售領域的一致執行提供了可靠的電力和客戶解決方案，反映了我們商業模式的實力。

The strong execution of our team year-to-date provides us with confidence that we will meet or exceed our plan despite the impacts of ongoing unplanned outages at a few of our units. Thus, we are reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3 billion to $3.6 billion.

今年迄今為止，我們團隊的強勁執行力讓我們有信心，儘管我們的一些單位持續受到計劃外停電的影響，但我們仍將達到或超過我們的計劃。因此，我們重申 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 的指引範圍為 55 億美元至 61 億美元，成長前調整後自由現金流的指引範圍為 30 億美元至 36 億美元。

Moving to growth. We recently announced our plans to acquire seven modern natural gas facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners with a combined capacity of approximately 2,600 megawatts, including 1,800 megawatts in the PJM market. We believe these assets are highly complementary to our fleet and we look forward to closing the transaction later this year or early next year.

走向增長。我們最近宣布了從 Lotus Infrastructure Partners 收購七座現代化天然氣設施的計劃，總容量約為 2,600 兆瓦，其中包括 PJM 市場的 1,800 兆瓦。我們相信這些資產與我們的船隊高度互補，我們期待在今年稍後或明年年初完成交易。

Lastly, given our hedging activity over the past several months, combined with the results of the recently completed 2026, 2027 PJM capacity auction. We are increasing our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity, excluding any contribution from the Lotus assets to be at least $6.8 billion.

最後，考慮到我們過去幾個月的對沖活動，結合最近完成的 2026 年、2027 年 PJM 容量拍賣的結果。我們正在增加 2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 中點機會（不包括 Lotus 資產的任何貢獻），使其至少達到 68 億美元。

Turning to slide 6. Our four strategic priorities remain integral to our strong business performance and both our short-term and long-term success. Our integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program leverages our diverse portfolio of Generation assets. This, combined with our strong Retail brands and experienced commercial team, provide increased visibility into our earnings potential while providing considerable downside protection.

翻到幻燈片 6。我們的四大策略重點對於我們強勁的業務表現以及短期和長期的成功仍然至關重要。我們的綜合業務模式和全面的對沖計劃利用了我們多樣化的發電資產組合。結合我們強大的零售品牌和經驗豐富的商業團隊，這不僅提高了我們獲利潛力的可見性，還提供了相當大的下行保護。

Operationally, we achieved commercial availability in line with expectations as the team worked diligently to prepare the fleet for the critical summer months. This preparation was evident, especially during the June heat wave in PJM, MISO, and the Northeast markets. Despite the demands placed on the fleet, particularly during the hottest three days beginning June 23, and our fleet performed very well with a commercial availability of approximately 95% across our diversified set of assets.

在營運方面，由於團隊努力為關鍵的夏季做好準備，我們實現了符合預期的商業可用性。這種準備是顯而易見的，特別是在 PJM、MISO 和東北市場 6 月的熱浪期間。儘管對船隊的需求很大，特別是在 6 月 23 日開始的最熱三天，但我們的船隊表現非常出色，我們多元化資產的商業可用性約為 95%。

On the Retail side, we achieved another solid quarter of performance, driven by growth in ERCOT across our portfolio of brands and strong complaint performance versus our competitors. We also continue to grow our large business markets franchise as customers are looking to secure power while managing price volatility.

在零售方面，我們又取得了穩健的季度業績，這得益於我們品牌組合的 ERCOT 成長以及相對於競爭對手的強勁投訴表現。由於客戶希望在管理價格波動的同時確保電力供應，我們也將繼續擴大我們的大型商業市場特許經營權。

In fact, our Texas business markets volumes were 10% higher year-over-year with strong margins. Switching to capital allocation, we remain committed to our disciplined approach of returning capital to shareholders, executing on attractive growth opportunities like the announced acquisition of assets from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, while also maintaining a strong balance sheet.

事實上，我們的德州商業市場交易量年增了 10%，利潤率也很高。轉向資本配置，我們仍然致力於嚴謹的資本返還方式，向股東返還資本，抓住有吸引力的成長機會，例如宣布收購 Lotus Infrastructure Partners 的資產，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。

Since implementing the capital return plan put in place during the fourth quarter of 2021, we have returned over $6.5 billion to our investors through share repurchases and common stock dividends. We expect to return at least approximately $1.8 billion of incremental capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends to the end of 2026.

自 2021 年第四季實施資本回報計畫以來，我們已透過股票回購和普通股股息向投資者返還了超過 65 億美元。我們預計到 2026 年底將透過股票回購和股利向股東返還至少約 18 億美元的增量資本。

We also expect this capital return to coincide with significant balance sheet deleveraging, which we believe will position us for an upgrade to investment-grade ratings as our earnings grow and we complete remaining future payments related to the fist revision minority interest acquisition.

我們也預計，此資本回報將與資產負債表的大幅去槓桿相吻合，我們相信，隨著我們的盈利增長以及我們完成與第一次修訂少數股權收購相關的剩餘未來付款，這將使我們的評級升級到投資級。

Moving to Strategic Energy Transition. We continue to execute on our strategy of utilizing existing land and interconnects to develop solar and energy storage projects. Our Oak Hill, Pulaski and Newton sites remain on schedule for commercial operations in 2025 and 2026. We continue to evaluate the remainder of our development portfolio for additional opportunities as long-term power agreements materialize.

走向策略能源轉型。我們繼續執行利用現有土地和互連設施開發太陽能和儲能專案的策略。我們的 Oak Hill、Pulaski 和 Newton 工廠仍按計劃於 2025 年和 2026 年投入商業運營。隨著長期電力協議的實現，我們將繼續評估剩餘的開發組合，尋找更多機會。

Finally, we were excited to achieve the successful relicensing of our Perry Nuclear Power Plant during the quarter. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the license renewal through 2046, an additional 20 years beyond its original license, and we look forward to the continued operations of this key baseload asset. We believe nuclear power's unique combination of carbon-free dispatchable power will continue to play a critical role in meeting our country's electricity needs for decades to come.

最後，我們很高興在本季成功獲得了佩里核電廠的重新許可。核管會批准將許可證續期至 2046 年，比原許可證延長 20 年，我們期待這項關鍵基載資產能夠繼續運作。我們相信，核電獨特的無碳可調度電力組合將在未來幾十年繼續在滿足我國電力需求方面發揮關鍵作用。

Turning to slide 7. We continue to see a structurally improved demand backdrop, which has significant positive implications for our business. While third-party forecasts and utility estimates have wide variation we continue to see a structural shift in electricity consumption with recent growth in electricity demand across the country returning to pre-2000 trends after approximately two decades of stagnation.

翻到幻燈片 7。我們繼續看到結構性改善的需求背景，這對我們的業務有重大的正面影響。雖然第三方預測和公用事業估計存在很大差異，但我們仍然看到電力消耗的結構性轉變，全國電力需求的成長在經歷了大約二十年的停滯之後，又回到了 2000 年以前的趨勢。

As we highlighted last quarter, energy growth in our biggest markets continues to track ahead of electricity demand growth for the entire country, with weather-normalized load in PJM growing approximately 2% to 3% and the ERCOT market growing approximately 6% year-over-year.

正如我們上個季度所強調的那樣，我們最大市場的能源成長繼續領先於整個國家的電力需求成長，PJM 的天氣標準化負載年增約 2% 至 3%，ERCOT 市場年增約 6%。

Our fundamental view suggests the growth energy consumption will outpace the growth in peak energy demand. This will mean higher utilization of existing assets, including Generation and transmission and distribution assets as well as demand response activities, particularly from large customers, including crypto, data centers and other industrial customers.

我們的基本觀點是，能源消耗的成長速度將超過能源需求高峰的成長速度。這意味著現有資產的利用率將更高，包括發電、輸電和配電資產以及需求響應活動，特別是來自大客戶的需求響應活動，包括加密、資料中心和其他工業客戶。

Our view is that markets are beginning to send the much-needed signals for investment in new Generation. This is underpinned by the continued investment from industrial and commercial sectors including data center customers. Since the beginning of this year, the administration's push to drive investment into US manufacturing has identified over $2 trillion of announced projects.

我們認為，市場開始發出投資新一代所急需的訊號。這是由包括資料中心客戶在內的工業和商業部門的持續投資所支撐的。自今年年初以來，美國政府為推動對美國製造業的投資，已宣布了超過2兆美元的項目。

As covered on recent quarterly investor calls, hyperscalers continue to invest in AI and data center infrastructure, including capital expenditure budget increases of over 50% to 60% on average compared to the prior year.

正如最近季度投資者電話會議所述，超大規模企業繼續投資人工智慧和資料中心基礎設施，其中資本支出預算與前一年相比平均增加 50% 至 60% 以上。

The recent PJM capacity auction clear is a sign of markets responding to this increased demand with recent prices signaling the value of additional capacity whether it's plan augmentations, deferring retirements, conversions or new build. We believe returning the PJM capacity auction to its regular schedule with a three-year lead time combined with the necessary stronger auction clears will incentivize the capacity additions the system needs.

最近的 PJM 容量拍賣清倉表明市場對這種增長的需求做出了反應，最近的價格表明了額外容量的價值，無論是計劃擴充、推遲退役、轉換還是新建。我們相信，將 PJM 容量拍賣恢復到常規時間表，提前三年進行拍賣，並結合必要的更強有力的拍賣清算，將激勵系統所需的容量增加。

Policymakers are understandably concerned about system reliability and system costs and programs like the reliability, resource initiative, and PJM can help accelerate dispatchable Generation additions.

政策制定者理所當然地擔心系統可靠性和系統成本，而可靠性、資源計劃和 PJM 等計劃可以幫助加速可調度發電的增加。

Finally, we continue to believe near-term demand can be reliably and cost effectively served by the grid we have today, given that electric grids remained underutilized for the vast majority of hours in the year. This remains the case for both ERCOT and PJM, where peak load has been approximately 85 gigawatts and 162 gigawatts, respectively, but the average load is approximately 55% to 60% of that level throughout the year.

最後，考慮到電網在一年中的大部分時間都未被充分利用，我們仍然相信，我們現有的電網能夠可靠且經濟有效地滿足近期需求。ERCOT 和 PJM 的情況仍然如此，其峰值負荷分別約為 85 千兆瓦和 162 千兆瓦，但全年平均負荷約為該水準的 55% 至 60%。

Our thermal fleet on average runs 50% to 55% capacity factors as most thermal assets do across the grid. These resources can scale to meet additional loan requirements.

我們的火力發電廠平均容量係數為 50% 至 55%，與電網中的大多數火力發電資產相同。這些資源可以擴展以滿足額外的貸款需求。

The super peak hours can be reliably met with straightforward solutions like on-site backup Generation and demand response allowing the new load to come into our markets utilizing the investments already made by the electricity sector, both regulated and competitive. In the medium to long term to sustain the economic growth and meet customer demand, more investment will be needed across the system.

可以透過現場備用發電和需求響應等簡單的解決方案可靠地滿足超高峰時段的需求，從而允許新負載進入我們的市場，利用電力部門已經進行的投資（包括受監管的和競爭性的）。從中長期來看，為了維持經濟成長並滿足客戶需求，整個系統將需要更多的投資。

As outlined on slide 8, we believe Vistra's diverse fleet of Generation assets, innovative Retail business and development capability strategically positioned Vistra for success in the power sector through a variety of opportunities.

如第 8 張投影片所述，我們相信，Vistra 多樣化的發電資產、創新的零售業務和開發能力將透過各種機會為 Vistra 在電力領域取得成功奠定策略基礎。

Customers are looking for multiple tailored solutions to meet their energy needs and whether it is data center contract opportunities with existing assets or higher utilization of our more than 40,000 megawatts of existing assets, we have multiple paths to create value. Our dedicated team is actively progressing these opportunities, and we have good momentum.

客戶正在尋找多種客製化解決方案來滿足他們的能源需求，無論是利用現有資產的資料中心合約機會，還是更高地利用我們超過 40,000 兆瓦的現有資產，我們都有多種途徑來創造價值。我們敬業的團隊正在積極推進這些機會，並且我們勢頭良好。

We have a number of short-term, medium-term and long-term options across the Generation fleet and we feel confident about the status of these opportunities and look forward to providing more details over the balance of the year.

我們在發電領域擁有多種短期、中期和長期選擇，我們對這些機會的現狀充滿信心，並期待在今年餘下時間提供更多細節。

Our existing asset base provides a strong foundation from which to grow capacity through operates not only at gas plants, but also at our nuclear sites, where we expect to finish our Operate studies by the end of the year. We anticipate being able to add more than 600 megawatts to our existing nuclear capacity by early to mid-2030s.

我們現有的資產基礎為我們擴大產能奠定了堅實的基礎，不僅包括天然氣電廠，還包括核電廠，我們預計將在今年年底前完成核電廠的營運研究。我們預計到 2030 年代初至中期，我們現有的核電容量將增加 600 兆瓦以上。

Moving to our coal sites. Our Coleto Creek coal to gas conversion remains on track for 2027. We see additional potential conversion opportunities at our other retiring coal plants given the strong capacity clears and our improved market outlook, including our Miami Fort Coal Plant located in Ohio.

搬遷至我們的煤炭基地。我們的 Coleto Creek 煤炭轉天然氣計畫預計在 2027 年仍將按計畫進行。鑑於強勁的產能清理和改善的市場前景，我們看到其他退役煤電廠有更多潛在的轉換機會，包括位於俄亥俄州的邁阿密堡煤電廠。

With the recent capacity auction clears combined with an improved outlook in forward energy prices and the state's dedication to markets with the passage of House Bill 15 in Ohio, we are taking concrete steps to prepare a potential conversion of the plant to gas, allowing it to run beyond the mandated retirement date and adding key capacity to the PJM market for years to come.

隨著最近的產能拍賣結束，加上遠期能源價格前景改善以及俄亥俄州通過第15號眾議院法案後該州對市場的投入，我們正在採取具體措施，為該電廠可能轉換為天然氣發電做準備，使其能夠在法定退役日期之後繼續運行，並在未來幾年為 PJM 市場增加關鍵產能。

Turning to new Generation. We are proud that our development team's track record makes us a preferred partner, including structuring and evaluating potential opportunities for new build gas Generation in partnership with large customers. For renewables, we view the Vistra Zero strategy is complementary to our dispatchable Generation assets, and we'll continue to execute our pipeline by utilizing existing sites and interconnects to serve customer needs.

轉向新一代。我們很自豪，我們的開發團隊的業績記錄使我們成為首選合作夥伴，包括與大客戶合作建造和評估新建天然氣發電的潛在機會。對於再生能源，我們認為 Vistra Zero 策略是對我們可調度發電資產的補充，我們將繼續利用現有站點和互連來執行我們的管道，以滿足客戶需求。

Finally, as we have demonstrated over time, we believe acquiring and integrating Generation and Retail assets to be a core competency of the team. We will continue to take an opportunistic approach to M&A as market opportunities arise.

最後，正如我們長期以來所證明的那樣，我們相信收購和整合發電和零售資產是團隊的核心競爭力。當市場機會出現時，我們將繼續採取機會主義的方式進行併購。

On the topic of M&A, I would like to briefly cover the recently announced Lotus transaction on slide 9. As you will recall, we announced mid-May an agreement to acquire seven modern natural gas facilities totaling 2,600 megawatts of capacity from Lotus Infrastructure Partners.

關於併購主題，我想在第 9 張投影片上簡要介紹最近宣布的 Lotus 交易。大家可能還記得，我們在五月中旬宣布了一項協議，將從 Lotus Infrastructure Partners 收購七個總容量為 2,600 兆瓦的現代化天然氣設施。

The acquisition includes five combined cycle gas turbine facilities and two combustion turbine facilities located across PJM, New England, New York and California, which will further geographically diversify Vistra's natural gas fleet while providing valuable dual fuel capabilities at three of the sites.

此次收購包括位於 PJM、新英格蘭、紐約和加州的五個聯合循環燃氣渦輪機設施和兩個燃氣渦輪機設施，這將進一步在地理上多樣化 Vistra 的天然氣車隊，同時在其中三個站點提供寶貴的雙燃料能力。

This transaction, which was struck at an attractive valuation of approximately $740 per kilowatt of capacity before taking into account any tax benefits will enhance our footprint in the Northeast and provide additional optionality as power markets tighten while exceeding our mid-teens levered return target. The acquisition remains on track for close later this year or early 2026.

此交易的估值頗具吸引力，在未考慮任何稅收優惠的情況下，其容量約為每千瓦 740 美元，這將增強我們在東北地區的影響力，並在電力市場收緊時提供額外的選擇，同時超過我們中等水平的槓桿回報目標。此次收購預計將於今年稍晚或 2026 年初完成。

In summary, our financial outlook continues to strengthen, while market tailwinds expand our opportunity set. We believe we are both the assets and the team to maximize value and deliver for our key stakeholders, and we are excited about the numerous opportunities in front of us.

總而言之，我們的財務前景持續增強，而市場順風擴大了我們的機會。我們相信，我們既是資產，也是團隊，可以為我們的主要利害關係人實現價值最大化，我們對眼前的眾多機會感到興奮。

Now I'll turn it over to Kris to provide more details on the second quarter results, outlook and capital allocation. Kris?

現在我將把時間交給克里斯，讓他提供有關第二季度業績、展望和資本配置的更多詳細資訊。克里斯？

Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 11. Vistra delivered $1,349 million in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, including $593 million from Generation and $756 million from Retail. The Generation segment continued to realize material benefits from our comprehensive hedging program with average realized prices nearly $3 per megawatt hour higher compared to the same quarter last year.

謝謝你，吉姆。翻到第 11 張投影片。Vistra 第二季的調整後 EBITDA 為 13.49 億美元，其中發電業務 5.93 億美元，零售業務 7.56 億美元。發電部門繼續從我們的綜合對沖計劃中獲得實質利益，平均實現價格與去年同期相比高出近 3 美元/兆瓦時。

The stronger realized price benefit together with higher capacity revenue substantially offset the impacts of unplanned outages at Martin Lake Unit 1 and our battery facilities at Moss Landing. On a year-to-date basis, the additional two months of Energy Harbor results combined with higher realized wholesale prices and higher capacity revenue more than offset the impact from the outages.

更高的實際價格效益和更高的容量收入大大抵消了馬丁湖 1 號機組和莫斯蘭丁電池設施意外停電的影響。從年初至今的數據來看，Energy Harbor 額外兩個月的業績加上更高的實際批發價格和更高的容量收入足以抵消停電帶來的影響。

The team is working diligently to restore site operations at Martin Lake Unit 1 and we currently anticipate that it will restart late this year or early next year. Despite isolated challenges at specific plans, the results of the Generation segment highlight the benefits of operating a large diversified fleet.

該團隊正在努力恢復馬丁湖 1 號機組的現場運營，我們目前預計它將在今年年底或明年年初重新啟動。儘管具體計劃面臨孤立的挑戰，但發電部門的表現凸顯了營運大型多元化車隊的好處。

Moving to Retail, it is important to note that based on the shape and level of supply costs, we expected a year-over-year increase in results for the first quarter, which was realized, but a modest year-over-year decrease in results for the second quarter.

轉向零售，值得注意的是，基於供應成本的形態和水平，我們預計第一季業績將同比增長，而第二季業績將同比小幅下降。

Notably, the second quarter, like the first quarter benefited from strong customer count and margin performance. Retail continues to generate strong earnings for our business in a variety of market conditions and is on track to outperform 2024 results. The team's use of innovative and customer-centric solutions maintains the competitiveness of the business and supports our long-term outlook.

值得注意的是，第二季與第一季一樣，受益於強勁的客戶數量和利潤率表現。在各種市場條件下，零售業繼續為我們的業務創造強勁的盈利，並有望超越 2024 年的業績。團隊採用創新和以客戶為中心的解決方案來保持業務的競爭力並支持我們的長期前景。

Moving to slide 12. Our commercial team continues to opportunistically hedge our expected Generation, providing more certainty with respect to our expected 2025 adjusted EBITDA and our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity. For 2025, as Jim noted, we have confidence in our ability to deliver 2025 results at or above the midpoint of the guidance range.

移至投影片 12。我們的商業團隊繼續機會性地對沖我們預期的發電量，為我們預期的 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 和 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 中點機會提供更多確定性。對於 2025 年，正如吉姆所指出的，我們有信心實現 2025 年業績達到或超過指導範圍的中點。

Based on realized prices for the first six months of the year, together with expected forward prices for the balance of the year as of June 30, we did not book any nuclear PTC in our second quarter financial statements. However, we continue to expect the nuclear PTC to provide meaningful downside support to our adjusted EBITDA outlook.

根據今年前六個月的實際價格以及截至 6 月 30 日的全年預期遠期價格，我們在第二季財務報表中沒有登記任何核能 PTC。然而，我們仍然預期核能 PTC 將為我們的調整後 EBITDA 前景提供有意義的下行支撐。

Turning to 2026, given our current hedge position, combined with the recent price clear in the 2026, 2027 PJM planning year capacity auction, we are increasing the expected floor of our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity to $6.8 billion.

展望 2026 年，鑑於我們目前的對沖頭寸，再加上 2026 年、2027 年 PJM 規劃年度容量拍賣的近期價格清晰，我們將 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 中點機會的預期底線提高至 68 億美元。

Notably, despite a modest pullback in 2026 power prices since our first quarter results call, we continue to see the possibility for our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity to be $7 billion. It's important to note that this improved opportunity for 2026 does not include any benefit from the pending acquisition of gas-fired power plants from Lotus Infrastructure Partners.

值得注意的是，儘管自從我們第一季業績發布以來，2026 年電價略有回落，但我們仍然認為 2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 中點機會有可能達到 70 億美元。值得注意的是，2026 年的這項改善機會並不包括從 Lotus Infrastructure Partners 收購燃氣發電廠所帶來的任何好處。

We look forward to providing our formal guidance for 2026 as well as a view of our adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity for 2027 on our third quarter results call. after we have executed additional hedges with respect to our expected Generation for those years.

我們期待在第三季業績電話會議上提供 2026 年的正式指導以及 2027 年調整後的 EBITDA 中點機會的觀點。在此之前，我們已經針對這些年的預期發電量進行了額外的避險。

Moving to free cash flow, as you may recall, we have targeted a conversion rate of adjusted free cash flow before growth to adjusted EBITDA of approximately 55% to 60%. Given the expected benefits from the passage of the one big beautiful Bill Act, we now expect consistently higher free cash flow conversion.

談到自由現金流，您可能還記得，我們的目標是成長前的調整後自由現金流與調整後 EBITDA 的轉換率約為 55% 至 60%。鑑於《一項偉大的法案》通過後預期將帶來的好處，我們現在預計自由現金流轉換將持續走高。

As a result, starting in 2026 and we are increasing our targeted conversion rate of adjusted free cash flow before growth to adjusted EBITDA over the medium term to be at or above 60%. Based on this revised outlook, we expect to generate a meaningful amount of additional unallocated capital and as Jim mentioned, we have many options on how to deploy this capital. We plan to provide a more detailed update on unallocated cash available for allocation on our third quarter results call.

因此，從 2026 年開始，我們將提高成長前調整後自由現金流出調整後 EBITDA 的目標轉換率，在中期內達到或超過 60%。根據這項修訂後的展望，我們預計將產生大量額外的未分配資本，正如吉姆所提到的，我們在如何部署這些資本方面有很多選擇。我們計劃在第三季業績電話會議上提供有關可供分配的未分配現金的更詳細更新。

Finally, we provide an update on the execution of our capital allocation plan on slide 13. The share repurchase program remains an integral part of our capital allocation framework and has added significant value since the initial implementation in late 2021.

最後，我們在第 13 張投影片上提供了資本配置計畫執行的最新情況。股票回購計畫仍然是我們資本配置架構不可或缺的一部分，自 2021 年底首次實施以來已增加了顯著的價值。

Since beginning the program, we have reduced our shares outstanding by approximately 30%, repurchasing approximately 164 million shares at an average price per share of just under $33. This reduction has led to a 50% increase in our dividend per share when comparing the dividend per share in Q4 2021 to the dividend per share paid in Q2 2025.

自該計劃開始以來，我們已將流通股減少了約 30%，以每股略低於 33 美元的平均價格回購了約 1.64 億股。與 2025 年第二季支付的每股股息相比，此次削減導致我們的每股股息增加了 50%。

Our utilization of a 10b5-1 plan has allowed us to stay in the market even when in possession of material non-public information. The plan is designed to flex up or down based on multiple predetermined factors, including our share price.

我們利用 10b5-1 計劃，即使掌握重大非公開訊息，也能繼續留在市場中。該計劃旨在根據包括我們的股價在內的多個預定因素進行上調或下調。

For example, in the second quarter, nearly two-third of the total share repurchases in the quarter were executed during the April market downturn, achieving an average price paid per share in that month of less than $115. Going forward, we expect to remain consistent buyers of our shares with the goal of leaning in during periods of market dislocation.

例如，第二季度，近三分之二的股票回購是在4月份市場低迷期間執行的，當月每股平均回購價格不到115美元。展望未來，我們預計將繼續穩定購買我們的股票，以便在市場混亂時期保持優勢。

Moving to the balance sheet, Vistra's net leverage ratio is currently approximately 3 times adjusted EBITDA. While current leverage levels have remained approximately 3 times for the last few quarters, we continue to expect our ratio to decline materially beginning in 2026 as we realized higher levels of EBITDA, in line with our outlook, meet payment obligations associated with the purchase of the Vistra Vision minority interest and allocate additional cash to incremental growth or additional debt repayments.

從資產負債表來看，Vistra 的淨槓桿率目前約為調整後 EBITDA 的 3 倍。雖然過去幾個季度目前的槓桿水平一直保持在 3 倍左右，但我們仍然預計，從 2026 年開始，我們的比率將大幅下降，因為我們實現了更高水平的 EBITDA（符合我們的預期），滿足了與購買 Vistra Vision 少數股權相關的付款義務，並分配了額外的現金用於增量增長或額外的債務償還。

We remain committed to maintaining very strong leverage metrics, which we believe, when coupled with the expected stability and diversity of our earnings will position us for an upgrade to investment-grade credit ratings in the next 12 months to 18 months.

我們仍然致力於維持非常強勁的槓桿指標，我們相信，再加上預期的獲利穩定性和多樣性，我們將在未來 12 個月到 18 個月內獲得投資級信用評級的升級。

Finally, turning to organic growth. We expect to invest just over $700 million on solar and energy storage projects in 2025, including the previously discussed solar projects supported by contracts with Amazon and Microsoft. Consistent with comments made last quarter, we anticipate a significant reduction in solar and energy storage development CapEx for 2026.

最後，轉向有機成長。我們預計 2025 年將在太陽能和能源儲存項目上投資略高於 7 億美元，其中包括先前討論過的與亞馬遜和微軟簽訂合約支援的太陽能專案。與上個季度的評論一致，我們預計 2026 年太陽能和能源儲存開發資本支出將大幅減少。

As always, this remains subject to change with any new offtake agreements. As Jim outlined earlier, we see an exciting and expanding opportunity set of growth projects across all Generation types within our fleet. We remain committed to our disciplined approach, including targeting at least mid-teens levered returns on these projects, while continuing to return capital to our shareholders and limiting the impact on our leverage metrics.

與往常一樣，這種情況仍可能隨著任何新的承購協議而改變。正如吉姆之前概述的那樣，我們看到了我們車隊中所有代數類型的令人興奮且不斷擴大的成長項目機會。我們將繼續堅持嚴謹的做法，包括在這些項目上實現至少中等程度的槓桿回報，同時繼續向股東返還資本，並限制對我們的槓桿指標的影響。

In summary, the team remains focused on delivering another strong year and positioning Vistra for long-term value creation. As always, the team remains laser-focused on executing against our four strategic priorities in this growing demand backdrop. With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

總而言之，團隊將繼續致力於再創輝煌的一年，並為 Vistra 創造長期價值做好準備。像往常一樣，在不斷增長的需求背景下，團隊仍然專注於執行我們的四大策略重點。接線員，現在我們可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

First, I thought could we start on convening peak. I was wondering if you could just comment on how is the potential deal at comment you peak progressing and latest thoughts on timing there and any gating factors as you look at that opportunity? .

首先，我想我們可以從召開高峰會議開始。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您在評論中提到的潛在交易的進展情況以及您對時機的最新想法，以及您在考慮這一機會時遇到的任何限制因素？。

David, I somehow knew this one was coming. So I appreciate you asking it. It's an important topic. Our strategy to date has been to announce something when we have a completed agreement and not before. I think that's been a bit differentiating from others through this process. And it's important that we've been intentional in not providing a specific time frame because reaching any data center deal is complex, and we actually want to maintain leverage too in the negotiation of these deals.

大衛，我不知怎麼就知道會有這樣的事發生。我很感謝你提出這個問題。這是一個重要的議題。到目前為止，我們的策略是，在達成協議後才宣布一些消息，而不是提前宣布。我認為透過這個過程，這與其他人有點不同。重要的是，我們有意不提供具體的時間框架，因為達成任何資料中心交易都很複雜，而且我們實際上也希望在這些交易的談判中保持優勢。

So in my view, you're not done until you're done. And our focus has been on finalizing the right deal for our company which, of course, includes our shareholders. And so it isn't just about price, it's also about terms.

所以在我看來，你還沒有完成一切。我們的重點一直是為我們的公司（當然也包括我們的股東）達成正確的交易。因此，這不僅與價格有關，也與條款有關。

So given that background, there's been a ton of interest in Comanche Peak, and while I'm not ready to preannounce anything, I can share with you that at this point, I feel very good about where things stand in getting a deal done at Comanche Peak.

因此，鑑於這樣的背景，人們對科曼奇峰產生了濃厚的興趣，雖然我還沒有準備好預先宣布任何消息，但我可以告訴你們，目前，我對在科曼奇峰達成協議的進展感到非常滿意。

I hope that's helpful color, David. I know there's going to be other questions about it, but I feel really good about it. The team feels really good about it and something that the team is working hard at.

我希望這對你有幫助，大衛。我知道還會有其他關於此的問題，但我對此感覺非常好。團隊對此感到非常高興，並且正在為此努力。

Got it. I can appreciate that, and that is helpful color there. And maybe just to add one more question on that topic. I'm curious, just is there anything else that's needed from a maybe Texas policy standpoint to move forward? I think previously, you had characterized SP 6 as one of the key elements there.

知道了。我很欣賞這一點，而且這是一種很有幫助的顏色。也許我只是想再補充這個主題一個問題。我很好奇，從德州的政策角度來看，是否還需要採取其他措施來推動這項進程？我認為之前您已經將 SP 6 描述為其中的關鍵要素之一。

Do you feel like you have everything you need in terms of regulatory clarity or the regulatory approval process is still somewhat in flux. Is that one of the next milestones that could determine the path forward? .

您是否覺得在監管透明度方面您已經擁有了所需的一切，還是監管審批流程仍存在一些變化。這是能夠決定前進道路的下一個里程碑之一嗎？。

Yes, David, it is -- so SB 6 was an important piece of legislation. I think its primary focus was concern around large load growth and grid reliability and how we'll either front of the meter or co-located deals contribute to providing reliability resources if an event -- if a reliability event were to occur, and that's where the backup Generation piece was highlighted.

是的，大衛，SB 6 是一項重要的立法。我認為其主要關注點是大負載成長和電網可靠性，以及如果發生可靠性事件，我們如何透過電錶前或共置交易來提供可靠性資源，這就是備用發電部分的重點。

Our project has already been filed that is already subject and we believe meets the requirements of all existing ERCOT large load interconnect processes. We think it meets the requirements of any new process. But to your point, there's still a bit undetermined about the new process.

我們的專案已經提交，我們相信它符合所有現有 ERCOT 大負載互連流程的要求。我們認為它滿足任何新流程的要求。但就你的觀點而言，新流程仍有一些不確定之處。

There's been a workshop. There's been an open meeting here recently. Our feeling is that the approach we've taken from the initial construct of this deal and working with our partner to where it sits today, is that a binding deal signed before September 1, is not subject to the new SP 6 process, and we're already underway in that process.

有一個研討會。最近這裡舉行了一次公開會議。我們的感覺是，從最初構建這項協議以及與合作夥伴合作到今天所採取的方法是，9 月 1 日之前簽署的具有約束力的協議不受新 SP 6 流程的約束，而且我們已經在進行該流程。

But if there were requirements that came out of SP 6, we feel confident our project meets that. So we don't view that as a gating item necessarily, David.

但如果 SP 6 提出了要求，我們相信我們的專案能夠滿足這些要求。因此，我們不一定將其視為一個限制因素，大衛。

I just think it's a process, and we've been very interactive with stakeholders in Austin throughout our discussion. So again, that's all part of when I say I feel good about where we are in getting a deal done. I say with respect to that. And I also say it with respect to timing.

我只是認為這是一個過程，在整個討論過程中，我們與奧斯汀的利益相關者進行了非常積極的互動。所以，我再說一遍，我對我們達成協議的進展感到滿意。我對此表示贊同。我也針對時間問題這麼說。

Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

麥可‧沙利文，沃爾夫研究公司。

Jim, just one more on the timing front, I think you said kind of more updates by year-end. Is that specifically I'm referring to Comanche Peak -- or are there other opportunities? And any color you want to provide on maybe some of the other things that might be in the hopper that we could get color on? .

吉姆，關於時間方面還有一點問題，我想你說過年底會有更多更新。我指的是科曼奇峰嗎——或者有其他機會嗎？您是否想為料斗中其他一些我們可以添加顏色的東西提供顏色？。

Yes, Michael, that wasn't specific just to Comanche Peak. As I mentioned earlier and the background on responding about the Comanche Peak opportunity, we have not preannounced activities. We will talk to you about the level of activity and the fact that we're working across the fleet on front of the meter and co-located deals.

是的，邁克爾，這不僅僅針對科曼奇峰。正如我之前提到的以及關於科曼奇峰機會的回應背景，我們尚未預先宣布活動。我們將與您討論活動水平以及我們在整個車隊中開展計費表前和共置交易的情況。

I could see because you manage a key customer interest comes and goes at times depending on what other options they're evaluating even beyond our portfolio of opportunities. So we think that there could be other opportunities that could come from where they sit today to completion by year-end. But the year-end comment was not specific to Comanche Peak.

我可以看到，因為你管理的關鍵客戶的興趣有時無，這取決於他們正在評估的其他選項，甚至超出了我們的機會組合。因此我們認為，從目前的情況到年底完成，可能還有其他機會。但年終評論並不是專門針對科曼奇峰的。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe on the M&A front, I know you have something pending right now. Do you think about that as precluding you at all from doing any other deals in the interim? And any market power issues that you see and any grids that you might be running up against for any future deals?

好的。我很感激。然後也許在併購方面，我知道您現在有一些待處理的事情。您是否認為這會妨礙您在此期間進行任何其他交易？您是否看到了任何市場力量問題以及在未來的交易中可能遇到的任何電網問題？

Good question, Michael. We don't see it as precluding. This was not on a percentage basis. This was not as large a deal as obviously, some of what our peers recently announced. We had done bigger deals earlier. You might remember, we were -- we started this with the acquisition of Dynegy, way back when and when prices were even lower from an asset standpoint than today and then, of course, Energy Harbor and then this one.

問得好，麥可。我們並不認為這是排除。這不是按百分比計算的。顯然，這並不像我們的一些同行最近宣布的那樣重要。我們之前做過一些更大的交易。您可能還記得，我們是從收購 Dynegy 開始的，當時從資產角度來看價格甚至比現在還要低，然後當然是 Energy Harbor，然後是這個。

I do think there are going to be specific tests that obviously regulators will look at in specific pockets. But we think that's manageable. There's plenty of assets that are of interest to us. We have headroom in the major markets, including the major PJM markets as well as ERCOT. So no, we expect to be in the discussions and in the evaluation of future opportunities.

我確實認為監管機構顯然會在特定領域進行具體的測試。但我們認為這是可以實現的。有很多資產都令我們感興趣。我們在主要市場都有發展空間，包括主要的 PJM 市場以及 ERCOT。所以不，我們希望參與討論並評估未來的機會。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Maybe to put a bow on this part of the conversation with respect to contracting in general. Just wondering if we could kind of gauge the momentum here, do you feel more confident in your full opportunity set across the portfolio now versus last quarter given developments we've seen over the past several months? .

也許是為了結束關於一般合約的這部分對話。只是想知道我們是否可以衡量這裡的勢頭，鑑於我們在過去幾個月看到的發展，與上一季相比，您是否對現在整個投資組合的全部機會更有信心？。

It is interesting that you're gauging it quarter-to-quarter because we do see conversations EBITDA and flow at times because. Again, these large customers, and we're talking primarily the hyperscalers are pursuing multiple opportunities across the country and internationally.

有趣的是，您按季度進行衡量，因為我們確實有時會看到有關 EBITDA 和流量的對話。再次強調，這些大客戶，我們主要談論的是超大規模企業，正在全國和國際上尋求多種機會。

So getting their attention on certain deals comes and goes, and we'll see the team come into conversation where we're talking about multiple deals and then it will go a little quiet and then even more deals come up for discussion in the aftermath of that. I can only assume our peers are seeing similar type reaction because these are complicated deals.

因此，讓他們專注於某些交易的過程時有時無，我們會看到團隊開始討論多個交易，然後會變得有點安靜，之後又會出現更多的交易進行討論。我只能假設我們的同行也看到了類似的反應，因為這些都是複雜的交易。

Colocation, for instance, I describe it as sort of like having a permanent roommate. It's not a paper contractor a hedge, you're co-located, you're coordinating activities the relationship lasts for decades, you're managing load ramp, grid protocols, expansion plans, water use, land use. Those are real important partnerships to get right. I would say, overall, the interest this quarter appears just from an activity level to be even greater than it was last quarter.

比如說，我把主機託管描述成有點像有永久的室友。這不是一個紙面上的承包商對沖，你們位於同一地點，你們協調活動，這種關係持續數十年，你們管理負載坡道、電網協議、擴展計劃、用水、土地使用。這些都是真正重要的合作關係，需要妥善處理。我想說，總體而言，從活動層面來看，本季的興趣似乎比上一季更高。

But I don't want to say that's a prediction that next quarter is going to be even busier. I'm just suggesting that it's not all linear in the way that these conversations develop, but they do take time to get right. And that's the most important thing is we aren't focused on just getting a deal. We want to get the right deal for our company and our shareholders. But I do think the activity level has picked up this quarter.

但我不想說這是對下個季度會更加繁忙的預測。我只是說這些對話的發展並不全是線性的，而是需要時間才能正確進行。最重要的是，我們不僅僅關注達成協議。我們希望為我們的公司和股東達成正確的交易。但我確實認為本季的活動水準有所回升。

That's helpful. Maybe, I guess, to reframe it a little bit better. Any thoughts you could share on the relative attractiveness of a long-term contracting across the markets you're in, such as ERCOT versus PJM or even thinking about new core versus gas at this test.

這很有幫助。我想，也許應該重新建構一下，讓它變得更好。您可以分享一下關於您所在市場中長期合約的相對吸引力的任何想法，例如 ERCOT 與 PJM，甚至在本次測試中考慮新核心與天然氣。

Yes. I've described in the past, and I think I said this a year ago, and I don't think my view has changed in the year of these discussions and the process of developing these opportunities with potential customers. I think there is still a premium for carbon-free resources like nuclear. We also see speed-to-market advantages with co-located deals.

是的。我過去曾描述過，我想我在一年前就說過這個，我認為在與潛在客戶進行這些討論和開發這些機會的過程中，我的觀點沒有改變。我認為核能等無碳資源仍具有溢價。我們也看到了同地交易在加快上市速度的優勢。

I think those deserve a premium. And that price spectrum, I'd put those still towards the upper end. I think as you move to front of the meter for those same resources, they're still attractive. I wouldn't expect them to garner the same premium. And as you move to gas, I think you also have a co-located versus front of the meter and the customers are working that entire spectrum of opportunities.

我認為這些值得額外付費。而對於這個價格範圍，我還是會把它們放在較高端。我認為，當你轉向計量表前面尋找相同的資源時，它們仍然具有吸引力。我不指望他們能獲得同樣的溢價。當您轉向天然氣時，我認為您也擁有共置的天然氣和計量表前端天然氣，並且客戶正在利用這整個範圍內的機會。

But I think just like any other consumer product you have, people will pay for value. So if there's land, if there's access to being able to expand, there's value to all of that. So I look at it much more from the standpoint of these are sophisticated customers and I would say that the IPPs and those that are regulated utilities working with these customers are learning their needs, but folks will be economically oriented, and there are some things that fit their profile differently.

但我認為，就像其他消費產品一樣，人們會為價值付費。因此，如果有土地，如果有擴張的途徑，那麼這一切都是有價值的。因此，我更多地從成熟客戶的角度來看待這個問題，我想說，獨立電力供應商 (IPP) 和那些與這些客戶合作的受監管公用事業公司正在了解他們的需求，但人們將以經濟為導向，有些事情以不同的方式適合他們的情況。

And so for instance, the colocation providers that are not the hyperscalers, they may be more interested in some of the gas arrangements than the nuclear arrangements. I think that's natural. That's how markets should clear. But that price spectrum we've talked about before, I think, is still intact, and that's the flavor of the conversations we're having.

例如，非超大規模的主機代管供應商可能對某些天然氣安排比核安排更感興趣。我認為這是自然的。這就是市場應該清算的方式。但我認為，我們之前討論過的價格範圍仍然完好無損，這就是我們正在討論的內容。

Bill Appicelli, UBS.

瑞銀的比爾·阿皮塞利。

Just a question on the free cash flow conversion improvement you discussed. Can you just put some more color around that? I assume this is driven by the OBB depreciation improvements. And so what level can that get to? Is that something we can see go up to 65%? Or what's the magnitude? .

這只是關於您所討論的自由現金流轉換改進的一個問題。你能為它添加一些顏色嗎？我認為這是由 OBB 折舊改進推動的。那麼這能達到什麼水準呢？我們能看到這個數字上升到 65% 嗎？或者說其量級如何？。

Yes. I appreciate the question. So I think as we said, we were in the 55% to 60% range. So if you kind of look at the middle of that, which is on average where we were and now we're saying 60-plus percent -- that's approximately -- again, I think if you assume 3% a year, which wouldn't be unreasonable, now the timing of that shifts from year to year.

是的。我很感謝你提出這個問題。所以我認為正如我們所說的，我們處於 55% 到 60% 的範圍內。因此，如果你看一下中間值，也就是我們之前的平均水平，現在我們說的是 60% 以上 - 大約是 - 再說一次，我認為如果你假設每年 3%，這也不是不合理的，現在這個時間每年都在變化。

So it's not straight line, but 3% a year. And if you think about us being -- starting in 2026 at $6.8 billion to $7 billion of EBITDA, you get to approximately $200 million a year. And then, again, over a five-year period, that would get you to somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 billion. That wouldn't be unreasonable. It's -- again, I want to make sure though the state that that's -- some of that is a little bit lumpy. It comes a little bit more in the 27 through 29-time frame than the 26 benefit.

所以它不是直線成長，而是每年 3%。如果你考慮一下——從 2026 年開始，我們的 EBITDA 為 68 億美元至 70 億美元，那麼每年就能達到約 2 億美元。然後，再過五年，你的收入就會達到約 10 億美元。這並非不合理。再次，我想確認一下，儘管州政府表示，其中一些是有點不均勻的。與 26 日的收益相比，27 日到 29 日的收益略多。

Okay. And then the mention around the investment grade over the next 12 to 18 months. you just speak to that as to what you need to achieve? Is that just on the higher EBITDA projections? And -- or is this going to increase effort to target a lower leverage level in terms of not just EBITDA moving up but paying down additional debt.

好的。然後提到未來 12 到 18 個月的投資等級。您只是說說您需要實現什麼嗎？這只是基於更高的 EBITDA 預測嗎？或者說，這是否會加強降低槓桿水平，不僅要提高 EBITDA，還要償還額外債務。

Yes. As we -- I noted in the remarks, we do expect to delever relatively quickly. And part of that is paying down debt. That includes the repurchase obligations. -- relating to our Vistra Vision minority interest, but it's not -- that's not the only debt that we anticipate paying down over the next couple of years. So we will be reducing debt. And then, as you say, our additional adjusted EBITDA opportunities that began starting in 2026.

是的。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，我們確實希望相對快速地去槓桿。其中一部分是償還債務。其中包括回購義務——與我們的 Vistra Vision 少數股權有關，但這不是——這不是我們預計在未來幾年償還的唯一債務。因此我們將減少債務。然後，正如您所說，我們額外的調整 EBITDA 機會將從 2026 年開始。

So we deliver very quickly and -- we've always said our goal was to maintain a very strong balance sheet. We weren't targeting, I think, over the last couple of years, we weren't targeting a specific rating. But as we've done the Energy Harbor deal and now the Lotus transaction and where some opportunities have arisen, we see our business risk profile and leverage metrics, both improving.

因此，我們交付得非常快，而且我們一直說我們的目標是保持非常強勁的資產負債表。我認為，過去幾年我們並沒有設定目標，也沒有設定特定的評級。但隨著我們完成 Energy Harbor 交易以及現在的 Lotus 交易，並且出現了一些機會，我們看到我們的業務風險狀況和槓桿指標都在改善。

And that puts us on a clear path to investment-grade ratings. And we think that's warranted. We're welcome it. And we do think it'd be incrementally positive for Vistra and its stakeholders.

這使我們走上了獲得投資等級評級的明確道路。我們認為這是有道理的。我們對此表示歡迎。我們確實認為這對 Vistra 及其利害關係人來說將會產生積極的影響。

So I do think we'll get down to those metrics. I think you would -- we continue to say we target less than 3 times. I think we see something materially below that. And I think once we get there, we'll plan to stay as a lower levered company. So I could see us being materially below 3x. And we'll welcome the investment-grade ratings, and we'll continue to run our balance sheet accordingly.

所以我確實認為我們會關注這些指標。我想你會的——我們繼續說我們的目標是少於 3 次。我認為我們看到了一些實質的東西。我認為，一旦我們達到這一目標，我們將計劃保持低槓桿公司的地位。因此我認為我們的實際比率低於 3 倍。我們歡迎投資等級評級，並將繼續據此運行我們的資產負債表。

All right. Great. And then just lastly, I mean, can we just get your views on the PJM capacity auction clearing up the cap and where maybe we go from here from a policy perspective? And should we assume that, ultimately, this capacity price is going to fit down? Or do you expect it to stay at core level for the foreseeable future?

好的。偉大的。最後，我的意思是，我們能否聽聽您對 PJM 容量拍賣清理上限的看法，以及從政策角度來看我們下一步該怎麼做？我們是否應該假設，最終這個容量價格將會下降？或者您預計它在可預見的未來將保持在核心水平？

Yes. That is obviously a difficult question to answer. I would say from a prediction standpoint, we know we have a cap and a floor for the next auction. And I think that is giving at least signals to both the customer side of this as well as the supplier side that we're going to be in sort of a banded outcome. As you guys know, the capacity clears have been all over the board. And prior to last summer, the previous threes clears were effectively in the dirt.

是的。這顯然是一個很難回答的問題。我想說，從預測的角度來看，我們知道下次拍賣的上限和下限。我認為這至少向客戶和供應商發出了信號，表明我們將獲得某種形式的帶狀結果。如你們所知，容量清除已經遍及整個董事會。而在去年夏天之前，之前的三次清場其實都是徒勞無功的。

And we see market response to that. We've seen lack of new build during that period but also plant retirements. With the last two clears, including this most recent one, you're seeing the market respond. I mean on an ICAP basis, on an installed capacity basis, we saw almost 5 gigawatts of new supply in just this auction.

我們也看到了市場對此的反應。我們發現那段時期新建案較少，工廠也退役了。透過最近兩次清算，包括最近這次，你可以看到市場的反應。我的意思是，以 ICAP 為基礎，以安裝容量為基礎，僅在這次拍賣中我們就看到了近 5 千兆瓦的新增供應。

Obviously, when you do it on a UCAP and they factor that down, that's a lower number, but that UCAP gets applied on the supply side and the demand side. So I think it's important to not lose sight that -- all companies are responding in this environment. Miami Fort is a great example of that. It's a 1,000-megawatt coal unit near the Cincinnati area, and that is slated to retire.

顯然，當你在 UCAP 上進行此操作並且他們將其分解時，這個數字會較低，但 UCAP 會應用於供應方和需求方。因此我認為重要的是不要忽視這一點——所有公司都在這種環境下做出反應。邁阿密堡就是一個很好的例子。這是位於辛辛那提附近的一座 1,000 兆瓦的燃煤機組，即將退役。

We have broadcast that for several years. With the previous auction clears, we couldn't even think about converting that to gas because there's a cost to the pipe. We have to sign a contract for gas supply.

我們已經廣播這個消息好幾年了。由於先前的拍賣已經結束，我們甚至無法考慮將其轉換為天然氣，因為管道需要成本。我們必須簽署一份天然氣供應合約。

So we increase our fixed cost and then we have to have a view towards capacity and energy 1,000 megawatts in the DO zone is very meaningful to the marketplace. And we've done augmentations, we've been -- we've submitted a couple of projects as part of the RRI effort, which is going to add about almost 12 gigawatts and half of that is new gas, including CCGTs and CTs.

因此，我們增加了固定成本，然後我們必須考慮 DO 區域的容量和能源 1,000 兆瓦對市場非常有意義。我們已經進行了擴建，我們已經提交了幾個項目作為 RRI 工作的一部分，這將增加約 12 千兆瓦，其中一半是新的天然氣，包括 CCGT 和 CT。

So I think people believe that one clear everything should appear, but it just doesn't. It takes time. And the interconnect queues are part of that as well. And so I believe two things should happen. One, we should see higher utilization of existing assets because as I've mentioned, there is excess capacity on the grid as it sits today.

所以我認為人們相信一個清晰的一切都應該出現，但事實並非如此。這需要時間。互連隊列也是其中的一部分。因此我相信應該發生兩件事。首先，我們應該看到現有資產的利用率更高，因為正如我所提到的，目前的電網容量過剩。

That doesn't mean that every load pocket in every node, there's excess supply. But there is excess supply, and we should be working with our utility partners on where the best place to site load is as well as Generation so that we can utilize the capacity that's already on the grid and build new where we need to.

這並不意味著每個節點的每個負載區域都存在供應過剩的情況。但供應過剩，我們應該與我們的公用事業合作夥伴合作，確定最佳的負載和發電地點，以便我們可以利用電網中現有的容量，並在需要的地方建造新的容量。

The other part of this that I think is important to keep in mind is a lot of the auction clear what's important is relative to the cost of building new as well. The cost of building new has more than doubled in the last five years.

我認為需要牢記的另一部分是，拍賣中許多內容明確指出，重要的是相對於新建建築的成本而言的。過去五年來，新建築的成本增加了一倍以上。

So just looking at a historical auction clear in saying these are higher clears than we've had in the past. It is interesting, but it's actually not the full equation because we have to pay for not only the capital to build a new plant, but the labor to constructed -- and once you have your capital cost, you know your gas costs you forecast energy revenue, you look for this capacity piece to help fill in the difference.

因此，只要看一下歷史拍賣，我們就能清楚知道，這些拍賣的成交額比過去的還要高。這很有趣，但實際上這並不是完整的等式，因為我們不僅要支付建造新工廠的資本，還要支付建造的勞動力——一旦你有了資本成本，你就知道了你的天然氣成本，你預測了能源收入，你就會尋找這個容量部分來幫助填補差額。

As those costs have moved up, necessarily the auction clears need to move up in order to make that math work. And that's true no matter who the investor is. It's not just IPPs. Anyone can invest in PJM, anyone could invest in ERCOT. And they're all going to look at our proper investment signals there to do so.

隨著這些成本的上升，拍賣清算額必然需要上升，才能讓計算結果成立。無論投資者是誰，這都是事實。不僅僅是 IPP。任何人都可以投資 PJM，任何人都可以投資 ERCOT。他們都會關注我們發出的適當的投資訊號。

The consumer bill impacts were a little bigger from the previous auction last from last summer. We think this auction moving up into the 329 range per megawatt day is about a 2% bill increase for customers. So I do think it's a higher level than they've seen. But over the last 10 years, what you've seen customers experience is an overall bill increase.

與去年夏天的上次拍賣相比，此次拍賣對消費者帳單的影響更大。我們認為，此次拍賣價格上漲至每兆瓦每天 329 美元左右，客戶的帳單將增加約 2%。所以我確實認為這比他們見過的要高。但在過去 10 年裡，我們看到顧客所經歷的是整體帳單的增加。

But if you actually look underneath that, the energy and capacity piece is flat to down over that 10 years. And the wires rates, the transmission distribution utility charges have generally doubled over that time period.

但如果你真正深入觀察，你會發現能源和容量部分在這 10 年內是持平甚至下降的。在此期間，電費、輸配電費用普遍翻了一番。

So energy and capacity is now, in most cases, a smaller part of the absolute bill than the wires charges are. So when we think about affordability overall, we need to look at the total bill not just what's there on energy and capacity, but look at the total bill and make sure that we have a product that's affordable for customers and that we're using the current grid as efficiently as possible.

因此，在大多數情況下，能源和容量在絕對費用中所佔的比例比電線費用要小。因此，當我們從整體上考慮可負擔性時，我們不僅要查看總帳單，還要查看總帳單，確保我們擁有客戶可以承受的產品，並且盡可能高效地使用現有電網。

So I know that's a little longer than what your question was from a price prediction, but I do think in this demand where everyone is looking for turbines and everybody is looking for load growth across the -- in many markets across the world, not just the US, the cost of developing new projects is moving up and therefore, the cost on the other side, whether it's a long-term contract or an auction is going to need to reflect that.

所以我知道這比你關於價格預測的問題要長一點，但我確實認為，在這種需求下，每個人都在尋找渦輪機，每個人都在尋找負載增長——在世界各地的許多市場，不僅僅是美國，開發新項目的成本正在上升，因此，另一方面的成本，無論是長期合約還是拍賣，都需要反映這一點。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies LLC.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith，Jefferies LLC。

You much for the time and the opportunity. Look, I'm sorry to do it, but to bring it back. Just given the comments from earlier about the September 1, timeline. I mean is there just an expectation here that you'd say look, we're going to try to get it done before 9-1 considering that? Or just again, the SB 6 and the way that that's been moving forward, look, you feel entirely fine about how that implementation process looks such that it would be sort of analogous pre-year post in terms of process?

非常感謝您給我的時間和機會。聽著，我很抱歉這麼做，但我還是把它帶回來了。剛才給出了關於 9 月 1 日時間表的評論。我的意思是，您是否會說，考慮到這一點，我們會嘗試在 9-1 之前完成它？或者再說一次，SB 6 及其推進的方式，你看，你對實施過程的感覺完全滿意，就流程而言，它與年前的帖子有點類似？

And would that put any extra strands about what it would look like in terms of the deployment permutation? Or is what you're contemplating sort of irrelevant with respect to SB 6. And any other comments about SB 6 requiring or mandating in any kind of way this demand response type activity here as far as your negotiations go?

這是否會對部署排列方面的情況產生額外的影響？或者您正在考慮的事情與 SB 6 無關。就談判而言，對於 SB 6 以任何方式要求或強制進行這種需求回應類型的活動，您還有其他評論嗎？

Yes, Julien, there's a lot in there. I would say -- nothing about our approach to this discussion and completion of an agreement with our customer is based on trying to extend the time frame. I mean, these are just large, complicated deals. And so we'll be done when we're done. And I think our deal will work pre or post a 9-1 completion.

是的，朱利安，裡面有很多內容。我想說的是——我們與客戶進行此次討論和達成協議的方法並不是為了試圖延長時間框架。我的意思是，這些都是大型、複雜的交易。所以當我們完成時，我們就完成了。我認為我們的交易將在 9-1 完成之前或之後生效。

And I think to your point about backup generation, One of the challenges, obviously, of working this on-site partnership is that we want to make sure that land and water and the ability to expand the site is there for the customer, including for their backup generation because we do expect that to be part of the reliability offering of a large site like this and that takes planning.

我認為關於備用發電的觀點是，顯然，進行這種現場合作的挑戰之一是，我們要確保為客戶提供土地、水資源和擴建場地的能力，包括他們的備用發電，因為我們確實希望這是像這樣的大型場地可靠性產品的一部分，而這需要規劃。

And so I mentioned we will meet -- we meet the current rural requirements. We don't know exactly how a rule requirement might develop if we are going through a review with SB 6, but in all the discussions we've had, we feel confident we meet the requirements of any new process that's contemplated. So I don't see that as being a material driver of the outcome of this deal.

所以我提到我們會滿足——我們會滿足當前的農村要求。如果我們正在對 SB 6 進行審查，我們不知道規則要求將如何發展，但在我們進行的所有討論中，我們有信心滿足任何正在考慮的新流程的要求。所以我不認為這是該協議結果的實質驅動因素。

Obviously, clarity is better than less clarity. So I'm not seeking to try to extend the process at Austin, but we have raised this reliability topic and the idea of how do you manage these super peak hours on a grid that largely has a lot of excess capacity.

顯然，清晰總比不清楚好。因此，我並不是想在奧斯汀延長這個過程，但是我們提出了這個可靠性主題，以及如何在具有大量過剩容量的電網上管理這些超級高峰時段的想法。

We've raised that as a company for years as how do we make sure the customer including residential, of course, has the energy they need when they need it. And the customer we're working with, they want to be part of that same solution. I mean they have a license to operate and they're looking to be economic development opportunities, and they want to be a solution, not a problem. So I think we're aligned, Julien, so I don't see it as material.

作為一家公司，我們多年來一直在提出這個問題，即如何確保客戶（當然包括住宅客戶）在需要時獲得所需的能源。與我們合作的客戶也希望成為相同解決方案的一部分。我的意思是他們有經營許可證，他們正在尋找經濟發展機會，他們希望成為一個解決方案，而不是一個問題。所以我認為我們是一致的，朱利安，所以我不認為這很重要。

Actually, since you say it this way, the backup generation or adjacency opportunity. I mean I know we're principally talking about a nuclear contract here, but would you expect to effectively undertake that on behalf of any said customer -- and then effectively, that would be part of the economics? Is it sort of a packaged deal that you would develop a gas plant or some kind of comparable generation that would effectively be paid for through a nuclear contract or a separate arrangement on a gas deal -- just trying to understand how you think about that and especially the compensation.

其實既然你這麼說，備份生成或是鄰接機會。我的意思是，我知道我們在這裡主要談論的是核合同，但您是否期望代表任何客戶有效地承擔這項合同 - 然後有效地，這將是經濟的一部分？這是否是一種一攬子交易，即開發一個天然氣工廠或某種類似的發電廠，並通過核合同或天然氣交易的單獨安排來有效支付費用——只是想了解您對此有何看法，尤其是補償問題。

The customer, Julien, I don't want to comment specifically about this particular arrangement, but that's going to differ by customers. Some of them feel very strongly about this being a core competency. It's something that they want to tightly manage, and control and others are looking for a more turnkey solution. So I think it could be either. And we will discuss this deal in more detail at a later date, but we're seeing that it could go either way.

客戶朱利安，我不想具體評論這個特定的安排，但這會因客戶而異。他們中的一些人強烈地感覺到這是一項核心競爭力。這是他們想要嚴格管理和控制的事情，而其他人則在尋找更完整的解決方案。所以我認為兩者都有可能。我們將在稍後更詳細地討論這筆交易，但我們認為它可能會以任何一種方式進行。

Got it. Excellent. Sorry, I just squeeze one last one in. On '27, any comments yet about where you guys are relative to what you said about '26. I know you provided a little bit of an update, but curious if you could offer any initial observations.

知道了。出色的。抱歉，我只好再擠最後一個了。關於 27 年，相對於你們關於 26 年所說的情況，你們有什麼評論嗎？我知道您提供了一些更新信息，但我很好奇您是否可以提供任何初步觀察。

Yes, sure. So in -- from the last update we gave a quarter ago, the curves are down just a little bit, Julien, not enough for us to change our views on 2027, but I think it's a reality that when folks are looking for weather, they're looking for the weather to move the forwards, and like in ERCOT, there just hasn't been much weather. So that's just been the way it's played out.

是的，當然。因此，從我們一個季度前給出的上次更新來看，曲線只是下降了一點點，朱利安，這不足以讓我們改變對 2027 年的看法，但我認為，現實是，當人們尋找天氣時，他們正在尋找能夠推動前進的天氣，就像在 ERCOT 一樣，並沒有太多的天氣。事情就是這樣發生的。

And in PJM, even though we saw the weather earlier in the summer and that kind of June 23 time frame, we saw prices really move in the sort of real time, and we saw some clears in the thousands of dollars that we haven't seen in those markets in quite some time.

在 PJM，儘管我們在夏季早些時候和 6 月 23 日這樣的時間段內看到了天氣，但我們看到價格確實在實時波動，並且我們看到了數千美元的清算，這是我們在這些市場相當長一段時間沒有見過的。

But we didn't see the forwards move that much. We think both are inconsistent with the load growth that's coming. And so we're a little more bullish, I'd say, than where the curves are sitting at the moment. And we're not fully hedged, obviously, in '27. We have some hedges on for sure.

但我們並沒有看到前鋒有太大的動作。我們認為這兩者都與即將到來的負載成長不一致。因此，我想說，我們比現在的曲線更樂觀。顯然，在 27 年我們還沒有完全做好對沖。我們肯定採取了一些對沖措施。

But yes, I would say don't take this -- we tried not to view this as a quarter-to-quarter kind of mark on the business. but '27 or comments before about '26, '27, '28, being in this range and trending in the right direction, still hold. Kris, anything you'd like to add?

但是的，我想說不要這樣——我們試著不把這看作是業務的季度標記。但 27 年或之前關於 26、27、28 年的評論，都在這個範圍內，並且朝著正確的方向發展，仍然成立。克里斯，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think I'd just point out that we have some roll-off of some hedges, but then we have some projected gas or coal plant closures. And so I agree with Jim. We continue to say we see those years being in line but trending a little bit in the right direction as we go forward in time, and I agree that still holds.

不，我想我只是想指出，我們對一些對沖進行了一定程度的取消，但我們預計一些天然氣或煤炭電廠將關閉。所以我同意吉姆的觀點。我們繼續說，我們看到那些年份是一致的，但隨著時間的推移，趨勢會朝著正確的方向發展，我同意這種趨勢仍然成立。

Thank you. We will now conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們現在結束問答環節。我想將會議交還給吉姆伯克 (Jim Burke) 做最後發言。

Yes. Thank you, everyone, for joining. I want to take a moment to thank our team for their continued execution and service to our customers and communities. This is an incredibly exciting time for our company. I hope you can tell by some of the topics today that there are a lot of growth opportunities out there, and we intend to capture them. We look forward to seeing you in person this fall and have a great day.

是的。謝謝大家的參與。我想花點時間感謝我們的團隊為我們的客戶和社區持續提供服務。對我們公司來說這是一個無比令人興奮的時刻。我希望你們能透過今天的一些主題了解到，存在著很多成長機會，而我們打算抓住這些機會。我們期待今年秋天能與您見面並祝您有愉快的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。