美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 9:00 a.m. Central Time.

歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）將從今天中部時間上午 9:00 左右開始對該通話進行錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and Chief Administration Officer; and John Stern, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. During their initial prepared remarks, Andy and John will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation, our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝布拉德，大家早安。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Andy Cecere；多蘭（Terry Dolan），副主席兼首席行政官；約翰‧史特恩（John Stern），資深執行副總裁兼財務長。在最初準備的發言中，安迪和約翰將參考幻燈片演示。簡報、收益報告和補充分析師時間表的副本可在我們的網站 usbank.com 上取得。

Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that can materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, our press release, our Form 10-K and in subsequent reports on file with the SEC.

請注意，今天的電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。今天的簡報第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿、我們的 10-K 表格以及向 SEC 歸檔的後續報告中描述了可能對我們當前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。

Following our prepared remarks, Andy, Terry and John will take any questions that you have. I will now turn the call over to Andy.

在我們準備好的演講之後，安迪、特里和約翰將回答您提出的任何問題。我現在會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'll begin on Slide 3. In the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.91, which included $0.14 per share of notable items related to merger and integration charges. Excluding those notable items, we delivered earnings per share of $1.05 for the quarter. Third quarter results were highlighted by linked quarter and year-over-year fee revenue growth that benefited from our acquisition of Union Bank, deepening client relationships and strong underlying business activity.

謝謝，喬治。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。第三季度，我們公佈的每股收益為 0.91 美元，其中包括與合併和整合費用相關的重要項目每股 0.14 美元。排除這些值得注意的項目，我們本季的每股盈餘為 1.05 美元。第三季的業績突顯在費用收入的環比增長和同比增長，這得益於我們收購聯合銀行、加深客戶關係和強勁的基礎業務活動。

We are achieving the cost synergies we anticipated from Union Bank and continue to prudently manage core expense as we identify operational efficiencies across the business. As of September 30, our Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 9.7%, an increase of 60 basis points this quarter. This is the same level it was prior to our acquisition of Union Bank.

我們正在實現我們對聯合銀行的預期成本協同效應，並在確定整個業務的營運效率時繼續審慎管理核心費用。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的普通股一級資本率為 9.7%，本季上升 60 個基點。這與我們收購聯合銀行之前的水平相同。

Total average deposits increased 3% or $15 billion on a linked-quarter basis. Credit quality continues to normalize this quarter, in line with expectations, and we further strengthened the balance sheet by adding $95 million to our loan loss reserve, reflective of an evolving credit environment.

平均存款總額較上季成長 3%，即 150 億美元。本季信貸品質持續正常化，符合預期，我們透過在貸款損失準備金中增加 9,500 萬美元進一步強化了資產負債表，這反映了不斷變化的信貸環境。

On October 16, the Federal Reserve granted us full relief from certain Category II commitments made in connection with the Union Bank acquisition given our balance sheet reduction and capital actions. As a result, we are now subject to existing capital rules or, if adopted, the same transition rules as all other Category III banks related to enhanced capital requirements under the Basel III endgame proposal. As proposed, this would include a 3-year transition period for the expanded risk-based approach and AOCI regulatory capital adjustment starting in the third quarter of 2025. I will discuss the impacts of these decisions further in my closing remarks.

10 月 16 日，鑑於我們的資產負債表縮減和資本行動，聯準會完全免除了我們在收購聯合銀行時所做的某些第二類承諾。因此，我們現在必須遵守現有的資本規則，或者如果採用的話，則必須遵守與巴塞爾 III 最終提案下提高資本要求相關的所有其他 III 類銀行相同的過渡規則。根據提議，這將包括從 2025 年第三季開始的擴大風險基礎法和 AOCI 監管資本調整的 3 年過渡期。我將在結束語中進一步討論這些決定的影響。

Slide 4 provides income statement results as reported and on an adjusted basis, ending in average balances and other key metrics.

第 4 投影片提供了按報告和調整後的損益表結果，以平均餘額和其他關鍵指標結尾。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, our return on average assets was 1.04% and our return on tangible common equity was 21%. While net interest margin declined 9 basis points to 2.81% this quarter, in line with our expectations, we continue to expect the NIM to bottom in the fourth quarter as we reach the end of the current rate-hiking cycle.

投影片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。排除顯著項目，我們的平均資產報酬率為 1.04%，有形普通股報酬率為 21%。雖然本季淨利差下降 9 個基點至 2.81%，符合我們的預期，但隨著目前升息週期結束，我們仍然預期淨利差將在第四季觸底。

Turning to Slide 6. A great benefit of our business model includes a balance between our spread and fee income businesses that helps us reduce earnings volatility through a business cycle. On a year-over-year basis, noninterest income grew approximately 12%.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們的商業模式的一大好處包括我們的點差和費用收入業務之間的平衡，這有助於我們減少整個商業週期的收益波動。非利息收入較去年同期成長約12%。

Within payment services, we continue to invest in our digital capabilities, expanding our payments ecosystem and optimizing our distribution. Emphasis on expanded partners and integrated capabilities will continue to support tech-led growth across merchant processing and increased opportunities across other areas of payment services businesses. Additionally, we are continuing to make investments that leverage our scale and strategic market positioning across our corporate trust, mortgage banking and capital markets businesses, which should enhance our already strong annualized growth trajectories.

在支付服務方面，我們繼續投資於我們的數位能力，擴大我們的支付生態系統並優化我們的分銷。對擴大合作夥伴和整合能力的重視將繼續支援整個商家處理領域的技術主導型成長，並增加支付服務業務其他領域的機會。此外，我們將繼續利用我們在企業信託、抵押銀行和資本市場業務中的規模和策略市場定位進行投資，這將增強我們本已強勁的年化成長軌跡。

Slide 7 highlights a few of our many post-conversion revenue opportunities and expected energies with Union Bank. Early indications of the potential to deepen relationships with legacy Union Bank loyal, affluent and diversified client base are promising, and we continue to be on track to realize approximately $900 million in cost synergies, which we expect to be fully reflected in our run rate as we head into the year 2024.

投影片 7 重點介紹了我們與聯合銀行的眾多轉換後收入機會和預期能量中的一些。早期跡象表明，深化與傳統聯合銀行忠誠、富裕和多元化客戶群的關係的潛力是有希望的，我們繼續有望實現約9 億美元的成本協同效應，我們預計這將充分反映在我們的運行率中我們即將邁入 2024 年。

Let me now turn the call over to John, who will provide more details on the balance sheet and results for the quarter.

現在讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季資產負債表和業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Andy. Turning to Slide 8. We ended the quarter with total average assets of $664 billion and total average loans of $377 billion, down $9 billion and $12 billion, respectively, on a linked-quarter basis as we prudently managed and optimized our balance sheet given the current macroeconomic and regulatory environment. Average total deposits were $512 billion, representing a 3% increase linked quarter, driven by expected seasonality and growth in money market and time deposits, time deposit accounts.

謝謝，安迪。轉向投影片 8。本季結束時，我們審慎管理和優化了資產負債表，平均資產總額為 6,640 億美元，平均貸款總額為 3,770 億美元，環比分別減少了 90 億美元和 120 億美元。目前的宏觀經濟和監管環境。平均存款總額為 5,120 億美元，環比增長 3%，這是受到預期季節性以及貨幣市場和定期存款、定期存款帳戶增長的推動。

Specifically, average noninterest-bearing deposits decreased $16.2 billion this quarter, primarily driven by our Union Bank retail customer upgrade at conversion from noninterest-bearing checking accounts to our interest-bearing Bank Smartly product. Excluding this reclassification, the decrease would have been $6.2 billion. Our mix of noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits was approximately 19%, consistent with where we expect the mix shift to stabilize based on historical performance and the operational nature of our core deposit base.

具體來說，本季平均無息存款減少了 162 億美元，主要是由於我們的聯合銀行零售客戶升級，從無息支票帳戶轉換為我們的有息 Bank Smartly 產品。如果不包括此重新分類，則減少額為 62 億美元。我們的無利息存款與有息存款的組合約為 19%，這與我們根據歷史表現和核心存款基礎的營運性質預計組合轉變將趨於穩定的情況一致。

Slide 9 provides an update on the investment securities portfolio. As of September 30, our available for sale securities were 97% of our total securities. We continue to reduce the effective duration of the AFS portfolio, which is now less than 3.5 years.

投影片 9 提供了投資證券投資組合的最新情況。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的可供出售證券占我們證券總額的 97%。我們持續縮短 AFS 投資組合的有效久期，目前已少於 3.5 年。

On Slide 10, we provide a detailed earnings summary for the quarter. This quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.91 or $1.05 per share after adjusting for merger and integration charges of $213 million net of tax or $0.14 per diluted common share.

在投影片 10 上，我們提供了該季度詳細的收益摘要。本季度，我們公佈的稀釋每股收益為0.91 美元，在調整合併和整合費用（扣除稅後2.13 億美元）或稀釋後普通股每股0.14 美元後，稀釋後每股收益為0.91 美元，即每股1.05 美元。

Turning to Slide 11. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled approximately $4.3 billion, which represented a 4.1% decrease on a linked-quarter basis and a 10.7% increase from a year ago due to the impact of rising rates and the acquisition of Union Bank. Our net interest margin declined 9 basis points to 2.81% in the third quarter. The linked quarter decline was primarily due to the impact of lower earning assets, deposit pricing and mix shift, offset somewhat by better loan spreads and funding mix.

轉向投影片 11。由於利率上升和收購的影響，完全應稅等值基礎上的淨利息收入總計約為 43 億美元，環比下降 4.1%，同比增長 10.7%聯合銀行的。第三季我們的淨利差下降 9 個基點至 2.81%。相關季度的下降主要是由於收益資產較低、存款定價和組合轉變的影響，但貸款利差和融資組合的改善在一定程度上抵消了影響。

Slide 12 highlights trends in noninterest income. Fee income increased 11.9% or $295 million on a year-over-year basis, driven by higher payment service revenue, trust and investment management fees, commercial products and mortgage banking revenues. On a linked-quarter basis, fee income increased 1.4% or $38 million, driven by other revenues, which included servicing revenue from previously executed balance sheet optimization actions.

幻燈片 12 突顯了非利息收入的趨勢。受支付服務收入、信託和投資管理費、商業產品和抵押銀行收入增加的推動，手續費收入年增 11.9%，即 2.95 億美元。按季度計算，在其他收入的推動下，費用收入增加了 1.4%，即 3,800 萬美元，其中包括先前執行的資產負債表優化行動的服務收入。

Turning to Slide 13. Reported noninterest expense for the quarter totaled $4.5 billion, which included $284 million of merger and integration-related charges. Noninterest expense, as adjusted, decreased $13 million or 0.3% on a linked-quarter basis driven by lower compensation expense that was somewhat offset by our investments in marketing and business development.

轉向投影片 13。報告的本季非利息支出總計 45 億美元，其中包括 2.84 億美元的合併和整合相關費用。調整後的非利息費用環比減少 1,300 萬美元，即 0.3%，原因是薪酬費用降低，但我們在行銷和業務開發方面的投資在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

Slide 14 shows our credit quality performance this quarter. While asset quality metrics reflecting changing conditions in the commercial real estate office segment, results this quarter continue to trend in line with our expectations, and key metrics remain below pre-pandemic levels. Importantly, given the higher interest rate environment as well as other portfolio considerations, we increased our reserve ratio for commercial real estate office loans to 10%.

投影片 14 顯示了我們本季的信用品質表現。雖然資產品質指標反映了商業房地產辦公領域不斷變化的狀況，但本季的業績繼續符合我們的預期，關鍵指標仍低於疫情前的水平。重要的是，考慮到較高的利率環境以及其他投資組合考慮，我們將商業房地產辦公室貸款的準備金率提高至10%。

Our ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.35% at September 30 compared with 0.29% at June 30 and 0.20% a year ago. Our third quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.44% increased 9 basis points from a second quarter level of 0.35% as adjusted, and was higher when compared to a third quarter 2022 level of 0.19%. Our allowance for credit losses as of September 30 totaled $7.8 billion or 2.08% of period-end loans.

截至9月30日，我們的不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為0.35%，而6月30日為0.29%，一年前為0.20%。我們第三季的淨沖銷率為 0.44%，比調整後的第二季 0.35% 的水準增加了 9 個基點，並且高於 2022 年第三季 0.19% 的水準。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的信用損失準備金總額為 78 億美元，佔期末貸款的 2.08%。

Turning to Slide 15. We continued to take action to improve our capital ratios this quarter, increasing our CET1 ratio to 9.7% as of September 30. The combination of our debt-to-equity conversion with MUFG, earnings accretion net of distributions and balance sheet optimization actions resulted in a 60 basis point increase from last quarter. Importantly, our CET1 capital ratio is now 270 basis points above our regulatory capital minimum.

轉向投影片 15。本季我們繼續採取行動提高資本比率，截至 9 月 30 日，我們的 CET1 比率提高至 9.7%。我們與 MUFG 的債轉股、扣除分配和餘額的收益增長相結合紙張優化行動導致比上季增加了60 個基點。重要的是，我們的 CET1 資本比率目前比監管資本最低限額高出 270 個基點。

I will now provide fourth quarter forward-looking guidance on Slide 16. In the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income of between $4.1 billion and $4.2 billion. Total revenue, as adjusted, is estimated to be in the range of $6.8 billion to $6.9 billion, including approximately $65 million of purchase accounting accretion. Total noninterest expense, as adjusted, is expected to be approximately $4.2 billion, inclusive of approximately $115 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to Union Bank acquisition.

我現在將在投影片 16 上提供第四季的前瞻性指引。我們預計第四季的淨利息收入將在 41 億美元至 42 億美元之間。調整後的總收入預計在 68 億美元至 69 億美元之間，其中包括約 6,500 萬美元的採購會計增值。調整後的非利息支出總額預計約為 42 億美元，其中包括與聯合銀行收購相關的約 1.15 億美元核心存款無形攤銷。

On a core basis, we expect full year 2024 expenses to be flat with 2023. Our income tax rate is expected to be approximately 23% on a taxable equivalent basis. We expect merger and integration charges of between $250 million to $300 million in the fourth quarter.

在核心基礎上，我們預計 2024 年全年費用將與 2023 年持平。以應稅等值基礎計算，我們的所得稅稅率預計約為 23%。我們預計第四季的合併和整合費用將在 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。

I'll now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

現在我將把它交還給安迪做總結發言。

Thanks, John. Turning to Slide 17. The Federal Reserve notified us on October 16 that they have granted us full relief from Category II commitments made in conjunction with the Union Bank acquisition after considering several factors, including actions to reduce our risk profile, strengthen our capital position and provisions related to Category III rules made after we received approval on the Union Bank acquisition.

謝謝，約翰。轉向幻燈片 17。聯準會於 10 月 16 日通知我們，在考慮了多項因素後，包括採取行動降低我們的風險狀況、加強我們的資本狀況以及與我們獲得聯合銀行收購批准後製定的第三類規則相關的規定。

This important decision now subjects us to the same enhanced capital requirements as all other Category III banks, including a 3-year phase-in of AOCI into regulatory capital starting in the third quarter of 2025. As expected, we will continue to carefully balance the need to accrete capital with any potential impact to earnings from further balance sheet optimization activities. Measures to manage the interest rate sensitivity and duration of our available-for-sale securities will continue.

這項重要決定現在使我們與所有其他 III 類銀行一樣受到更高的資本要求，包括從 2025 年第三季開始將 AOCI 為期 3 年逐步納入監管資本。正如預期的那樣，我們將繼續謹慎平衡需要累積資本，從而進一步優化資產負債表活動，從而對收益產生任何潛在影響。我們將繼續採取管理利率敏感度和可供出售證券期限的措施。

Since before our acquisition of Union Bank, our priority has been and will continue to be the strategic execution of capital-efficient growth opportunities across each of our business lines. As a result of the Fed's decision, we are now well positioned with our enhanced earnings profile and diversified business mix to increase our capital levels, continue our disciplined lending activities and further strengthen our balance sheet.

自收購聯合銀行之前以來，我們的首要任務一直是並將繼續是在我們每個業務線中策略執行資本效率高的成長機會。由於聯準會的決定，我們現在處於有利地位，我們的盈利狀況得到改善，業務組合多元化，可以提高我們的資本水平，繼續我們嚴格的貸款活動，並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

Let me close by thanking our more than 75,000 employees for their dedication to supporting the needs of our clients, communities and shareholders.

最後，我要感謝我們超過 75,000 名員工為滿足客戶、社區和股東的需求所做的奉獻。

We'll now open up the call to Q&A.

我們現在將開放問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們將與美國銀行一起前往 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe the first question, just around the Fed decision. In its letter, the Fed said, I guess, the bank anticipates taking further actions to reduce risk profile and reduce assets and increase capital. So if you don't mind talking about just what additional actions we should expect. I think you mentioned that the EPS impact could be neutral from here. But just how should we think about what else the Fed expects from you on the risk mitigation side as we move forward into next year?

我想也許是第一個問題，圍繞著聯準會的決定。聯準會在信中表示，我猜該銀行預計將採取進一步行動來降低風險狀況、減少資產並增加資本。因此，如果您不介意討論一下我們應該採取哪些額外行動。我想你提到每股盈餘的影響可能是中性的。但當我們進入明年時，我們應該如何考慮聯準會在風險緩解方面對您的其他期望？

Sure. Thanks, Ebrahim. So as a way -- this is John. As a way of background, the Fed granted us, as we -- as you mentioned, full relief from our Category II commitments, and that's because of the actions, and Andy mentioned this, of our actions to reduce risk as well as our ability to strengthen our capital position.

當然。謝謝，易卜拉欣。作為一種方式——這是約翰。作為背景，正如您所提到的，美聯儲授予我們完全免除我們的第二類承諾，這是因為我們採取了行動，安迪提到了這一點，我們降低風險的行動以及我們的能力加強我們的資本地位。

So importantly, this is going to provide us additional time and flexibility to meet those new regulatory requirements and do so in the same time frame as our Category III peers. And additionally, we think it's going to reduce the downside given the challenging rate environment.

重要的是，這將為我們提供額外的時間和靈活性來滿足這些新的監管要求，並在與我們的 III 類同行相同的時間範圍內實現這一目標。此外，考慮到充滿挑戰的利率環境，我們認為這將減少下行風險。

But nothing really changes in terms of how we're fundamentally managing the balance sheet going forward. We're still committed to building regulatory capital. We're still expecting to increase and accrete capital at a 20 to 25 basis points on average per quarter. And our expectation is to accelerate that as we get through the merger-related costs -- or be in the high end of that range, I should say, as we get through the merger-related costs and start to realize the full Union Bank synergies. And we're still going to be executing risk-weighted asset optimization transactions.

但就我們未來管理資產負債表的根本方式而言，沒有任何真正的改變。我們仍然致力於建立監管資本。我們仍預期每季平均增加和累積資本 20 至 25 個基點。我們的期望是，當我們克服與合併相關的成本時，或者我應該說，當我們克服與合併相關的成本並開始實現聯合銀行的全部協同效應時，我們會加速這一進程。我們仍將執行風險加權資產優化交易。

But now we have the time and flexibility to do that over in a way that is low-to-neutral in terms of our earnings impact. And so for all those reasons, we feel like we have the flexibility in our balance sheet to do those sorts of things.

但現在我們有時間和靈活性以對我們的盈利影響較低至中性的方式重新進行這項工作。因此，基於所有這些原因，我們認為我們的資產負債表具有靈活性，可以做這些事情。

I think that's exactly right, John. And the only thing I'd add is that part of the decision is reflective of what we've already done for the last 12 months in terms of reducing the risk profile, building capital, optimizing the balance sheet.

我認為這是完全正確的，約翰。我唯一要補充的是，該決定的一部分反映了我們過去 12 個月在降低風險狀況、建立資本和優化資產負債表方面所做的工作。

And I want to be clear, Ebrahim, we are not under an asset cap at all. We are maintaining flexibility and managing the balance sheet and capital, and we'll continue to remain focused on capital-efficient growth. And that includes focusing the high-margin, high-return businesses that exceed our cost of capital, while deepening relationships from our most profitable clients. And that has been and will continue to be our focus.

我想澄清，易卜拉欣，我們根本沒有資產上限。我們將保持靈活性並管理資產負債表和資本，並將繼續專注於資本效率成長。這包括專注於超出我們資本成本的高利潤、高回報業務，同時深化與我們利潤最高的客戶的關係。這一直是並將繼續是我們的重點。

That's good color. And just a separate question, John, I think I heard you correctly -- if I heard you correctly, you mentioned you expect the NIM to trough, and I'm assuming NIM equals NII to trough in the fourth quarter. Maybe just [challenge] that assumption in terms of does a steeper yield curve or widening in just the curve? So is -- that assumption around troughing of NII or NIM? And what gives you confidence around mix shift, consumer behavior, to feel good about that?

這顏色真好啊還有一個單獨的問題，約翰，我想我沒聽錯——如果我沒聽錯的話，你提到你預計 NIM 會觸底，我假設 NIM 等於 NII 到第四季的低谷。也許只是[挑戰]這個假設是殖利率曲線更陡還是曲線更寬？關於 NII 或 NIM 觸底的假設也是如此嗎？是什麼讓您對混合轉變、消費者行為充滿信心，並對此感覺良好？

Yes. So I think in terms of the guidance we provided, we have embedded in there our rate forecast, which includes a rate increase in December. Whether or not that happens or not is relatively immaterial since we're fairly neutral from an interest rate risk positioning standpoint.

是的。因此，我認為就我們提供的指導而言，我們已在其中嵌入了利率預測，其中包括 12 月的升息。這種情況是否發生相對無關緊要，因為從利率風險定位的角度來看，我們相當中立。

I guess what I would say is as the Fed is -- whether they're done or not in terms of the rate hiking, we start to see a lot of things on the deposit side slowdown, so our noninterest-bearing balances will be relatively stable here at this level. The deposit betas will -- rate paid will start to slow down. And then on the other side, your assets will start to reprice, whether that's the securities book, the loan book and all those sort of things.

我想我想說的是，就像聯準會一樣——無論他們在升息方面是否完成，我們開始看到存款方面的許多事情都在放緩，所以我們的無息餘額將相對穩定在這個水平。存款貝塔值將－支付的利率將開始放緩。然後另一方面，你的資產將開始重新定價，無論是證券帳簿、貸款帳簿或所有這些東西。

So that's what gives us the confidence, really, that we will bottom out here in the fourth quarter from a NIM and net interest income perspective.

因此，這確實給了我們信心，從淨利差和淨利息收入的角度來看，我們將在第四季觸底。

Next, we'll go to John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

接下來，我們將邀請約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald）進行自主研究。

John, can I just follow up on what you were just talking about? What are you looking at in terms of the NIM for the fourth quarter, roughly? And did I hear correctly, you think the deposit mix kind of settles out around 19%, 20%, where you are here in beta, kind of in the mid-40s. Do you still have those expectations?

約翰，我可以繼續你剛才說的話嗎？您對第四季的淨利差（NIM）有何看法？我沒聽錯的話，你認為存款組合大約在 19%、20% 左右，你現在處於測試階段，大約在 40 多歲左右。你還有那些期待嗎？

Yes. Maybe just to go to the last couple of questions you mentioned. So from a noninterest bearing, yes, we do expect that mix. We're at about 19%, that's about where we will be. We expect that to be in that range. And from a beta perspective, we are in the mid-40s right now. It's possible it could creep up higher depending on where the Fed goes from here, but we feel good about that.

是的。也許只是為了回答你提到的最後幾個問題。因此，從無息角度來看，是的，我們確實期望這種混合。我們的比例約為 19%，這就是我們將要達到的水平。我們預計會在這個範圍內。從測試版的角度來看，我們現在正處於 40 歲左右。它有可能會攀升，具體取決於聯準會的下一步行動，但我們對此感覺良好。

And then in terms of the net interest margin and things like that, we do anticipate a little bit more pressure here in the fourth quarter. But then that really is the point where we feel that it'll bottom out based on my comments I just made the previous question?

然後就淨利差等而言，我們確實預期第四季會面臨更大的壓力。但是，根據我剛剛提出的上一個問題的評論，我們真的認為它會觸底嗎？

And that's reflected in our revenue and net interest income guidance.

這反映在我們的收入和淨利息收入指引中。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then recognizing, with the Fed decision, you've obviously got a lot more time to phase in the AOCI now. John, can you just give us a little more color on what happened in terms of the trend in AOCI this quarter? What are the pieces there? And how do the swaps affect your burn-down time line? And just also if you could add on, what do you -- how do you calculate the capital with AOCI today? It looks like maybe around 7%, something like that.

好的。然後認識到，隨著聯準會的決定，你現在顯然有更多的時間來逐步實施 AOCI。約翰，您能給我們更多關於本季 AOCI 趨勢的資訊嗎？那裡有哪些碎片？交換如何影響你的燃盡時間線？如果您可以補充一下，您今天如何計算 AOCI 的資本？看起來大概是 7% 左右，類似的數字。

Yes. So I think all in, it's about -- AOCI is about 250 basis points of impact. So I would say 7.2% is probably roughly kind of where I would think about it.

是的。所以我認為總而言之，AOCI 的影響約為 250 個基點。所以我想說 7.2% 可能是我所考慮的大致範圍。

In terms of the change in the AFS, obviously, rates backed up on the long end of the curve, 75 to 90 basis points, depending on treasuries or mortgages that you're looking at. And that had an impact of about $1.4 billion in our -- on an after-tax basis on our AFS securities book, which we would have expected and is consistent with the duration of our book, which we have continued to wind down. As I mentioned in our comments, about -- less than 3.5 years is our current duration. So that's the effect of that.

就 AFS 的變化而言，顯然，利率在曲線的長端得到支撐，75 到 90 個基點，具體取決於您所關注的國債或抵押貸款。這對我們的 AFS 證券帳簿（按稅後計算）產生了約 14 億美元的影響，這是我們預料到的，並且與我們繼續縮減的帳簿期限一致。正如我在評論中提到的，我們目前的持續時間大約不到 3.5 年。所以這就是效果。

We are continuing to see -- we will continue to see paydowns in that book, whether it's the HTM or AFS. We have about approximately $3 billion or so per quarter that rolls off that book, and we'll reinvest in the AFS side of things over time.

我們將繼續看到——我們將繼續看到那本書的回報，無論是 HTM 還是 AFS。我們每季大約有 30 億美元左右的資金用於該帳簿，隨著時間的推移，我們將在 AFS 方面進行再投資。

Next, we'll go to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Security.

接下來，我們將拜訪富國銀行安全部門的麥克梅奧。

Just to be clear, how much of the $900 million merger savings were recognized in the third quarter results?

需要澄清的是，9 億美元的合併節省中有多少在第三季業績中得到了確認？

Well, in terms of -- we will get to a full run rate of $900 million. It's probably $100 million or so is kind of the -- in that range is probably what we were seeing. But it's been growing in terms of the amount, and we'll see that full benefit pull through in the fourth quarter.

嗯，就我們而言，我們將達到 9 億美元的全額運行率。大概是 1 億美元左右——我們可能看到的就是這個範圍。但其金額一直在增長，我們將在第四季度看到全部收益。

So relative to the third quarter, the first quarter of 2025 could see $800 million of additional expense savings?

那麼相對於第三季度，2025 年第一季可能會節省 8 億美元的額外費用？

No, because we've been -- the savings have been generated all throughout the course of the year. And they have -- they accelerate third quarter into fourth quarter; and second quarter, third quarter and into fourth quarter.

不，因為我們全年都在節省成本。他們已經——他們將第三季加速到第四季；第二季、第三季和第四季。

So what's the cumulative merger savings? I guess how much more expense savings should there be when they're fully realized in the first quarter relative to the third quarter?

那麼累計合併節省是多少？我想當第一季完全實現時，相對於第三季度，費用節省應該要多多少？

When we have the savings, we'll have approximately $400-or-so million that has gone through this full year, and then we'll expect to see that in the next coming year. But that's embedded into our full year guidance of flat expenses between 2023 and 2024.

當我們有了積蓄後，我們這一整年的支出將達到約 400 億美元左右，然後我們預計會在下一年看到這一點。但這已納入我們 2023 年至 2024 年全年固定支出指引中。

So Mike, the way I think about it, this is Andy, by the end of the fourth quarter, we will be on a run rate recognizing $900 million of savings, which will be fully reflected in 2024 in our expense base. And that is consistent with how we think about a relatively flat '23 to '24 expense base, including those savings, plus investments we'll continue to make in the business.

麥克，我的想法是，安迪，到第四季末，我們的運行速度將節省 9 億美元，這將在 2024 年充分反映在我們的費用基礎中。這與我們對 23 至 24 年相對平坦的支出基礎的看法是一致的，包括這些節省，加上我們將繼續在業務中進行的投資。

And then the big question then is, so if you have flat 2024 expenses, do you think you can get to positive operating leverage? Or is it too early or too many moving parts? Because this is the sweet spot of the merger savings coming up, right, by the next quarter?

那麼最大的問題是，如果您在 2024 年的支出持平，您認為您可以獲得正的營運槓桿嗎？還是太早了或是活動的部分太多了？因為這是下個季度合併節省的最佳點，對嗎？

Is a sweet spot. Mike, you're absolutely right. And the savings are great. The opportunities to deepen relationships on the Union Bank customer base, I mentioned that in my comments, I think that is terrific. Our fee businesses are doing extremely well. On a year-over-year basis, it was up 12% across almost every category. And frankly, very little of that was related to Union Bank. That was just core improvement across a number of categories, capital markets, our corporate and trust, our fee businesses, our payments businesses.

是一個甜蜜的地方。麥克，你說得完全正確。而且節省的費用是巨大的。我在評論中提到，有機會加深與聯合銀行客戶群的關係，我認為這非常棒。我們的收費業務做得非常好。與去年同期相比，幾乎每個類別的銷售額都成長了 12%。坦白說，其中很少與聯合銀行有關。這只是資本市場、我們的企業和信託、我們的收費業務、我們的支付業務等多個類別的核心改進。

The challenge for us and for the entire industry is net interest income and margin. And in this environment, that's the one that I -- there's a lot of moving pieces, as you say. Loan growth is relatively tepid as we speak for us and for the industry overall. So it will be dependent upon that in terms of positive operating leverage, and I would say it's too early to call.

我們和整個產業面臨的挑戰是淨利息收入和利潤率。在這種環境下，這就是我的環境——正如你所說，有很多變化的部分。就我們自己和整個行業而言，貸款成長相對溫和。因此，這將取決於積極的營運槓桿，我認為現在下結論還為時過早。

Okay. And last follow-up. Your increase in CET1 ratio due to a lot of balance sheet optimization did come at a cost of less assets, less loan growth, less earnings, right? There's a trade-off in that. So now that you're under kind of less pressure and have so much more flexibility, do you think you can be a little bit more lax in terms of your growth, and in turn, that may help NII? Or is that too much of a stretch?

好的。以及最後的跟進。由於大量資產負債表優化而導致的 CET1 比率的增加確實是以資產減少、貸款成長減少、收益減少為代價的，對嗎？這其中需要權衡。那麼現在你的壓力更小了，靈活性也更大了，你認為在成長方面你可以放鬆一點，反過來，這可能會對NII有幫助嗎？或者這太過分了？

Yes. We have flexibility now in terms of the transactions that we do to optimize. And we still have plans to do those sorts of things. We've identified some things that are going to be relatively neutral and a little bit on the low end of earnings impact. And of course, you saw some of those transactions in the second quarter flow through in terms of provision and things like that. And that did lower our earning assets, as you mentioned, about $8 billion or thereabouts this quarter.

是的。我們現在在優化交易方面具有靈活性。我們仍然有計劃做這些事情。我們已經確定了一些相對中性的因素，並且對獲利的影響較小。當然，你看到第二季度的一些交易在供應等方面有所體現。正如您所提到的，這確實降低了我們本季的獲利資產約 80 億美元左右。

And next, we'll go to John Pancari with Evercore.

接下來，我們將邀請 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

I know despite the regulatory change around the Cat II requirement, you maintain the 20 to 25 bps generation in CET1 quarterly. Why no change there? Can you just talk to us maybe about the give and takes in that expectation as the need to meet the Category II shifted to Category III, why no change there?

我知道，儘管圍繞 Cat II 要求的監管發生了變化，但 CET1 季度仍保持 20 至 25 個基點的生成。為什麼那裡沒有變化？您能否與我們談談這種期望的給予和接受，因為滿足第二類的需求已轉移到第三類，為什麼沒有改變？

Well, I think there's no change because we feel like, given the new rule set and things like that, over time, we'll have to transition into the new regime, which will include AOCI and so all the other rules. And so we're going to be in a mode to continue to accrete that capital, and that 20 to 25 basis points is our earnings stream that we will accrete. And like this quarter, for example, it was 20 basis points, but we anticipate going to 25 on the higher end of that range as we get through the merger-related costs and we have the Union synergies.

嗯，我認為沒有變化，因為我們覺得，考慮到新的規則集和類似的事情，隨著時間的推移，我們將不得不過渡到新的製度，其中將包括 AOCI 和所有其他規則。因此，我們將採取一種繼續累積資本的模式，而 20 到 25 個基點就是我們將累積的收益流。例如，像本季一樣，它是 20 個基點，但隨著我們克服與合併相關的成本並且我們擁有聯盟的協同效應，我們預計將達到該範圍的較高端 25 個基點。

Okay. So the less BSO activities didn't materially benefit that expectation?

好的。那麼，BSO 活動的減少並沒有為這項期望帶來實質上的好處呢？

I'm sorry. Can you say that? I couldn't hear you.

對不起。你能這麼說嗎？我聽不見你說話。

The less risk-weighted asset optimization efforts that would be needed now under the -- need to meet Category III did not materially impact the 20 to 25 basis points of earnings generation expected?

現在需要滿足第三類要求的風險加權資產優化工作較少，這不會對預期的 20 至 25 個基點的盈利產生重大影響嗎？

No, that did not. No, that did not. Like for example, this quarter, we had 20 basis points of RWA actions, which included some of the asset reduction you saw our earning assets lower, for example, as well as some other transactions embedded. So we separate out the core earnings when we were talking about 20 to 25 basis points, core earnings from other RWA optimization transactions that we have the ability to do.

不，那沒有。不，那沒有。例如，本季度，我們的 RWA 行動降低了 20 個基點，其中包括您看到的我們的獲利資產下降的一些資產削減，以及嵌入的一些其他交易。因此，當我們談論20到25個基點時，我們將核心收益從我們有能力做的其他RWA優化交易中分離出來。

Okay. And then separately, is there any OpEx impact of the -- of now needing to conform to the Category III versus the more immediate requirements of Category II? Anything on the expense side?

好的。另外，現在需要符合第三類與第二類更直接的要求相比，是否會對營運支出產生任何影響？費用方面有什麼嗎？

And then separately, on the -- on your margin bottoming comment. Anything in terms of the trajectory in the margin that you would expect after you see this bottoming as we head into 2024?

然後分別對您的邊際觸底評論進行評論。當我們進入 2024 年時，看到觸底之後，您對利潤率的軌跡有何預期？

Yes. So in terms of OpEx, no, there's no further investment. You may recall, before tailoring, we had many of the same rules and standards that we had in terms of liquidity rules and reporting and all those sorts of things. So we have all the capabilities built up or can quickly get to that level from an operational standpoint. So there's no worries there.

是的。因此，就營運支出而言，沒有進一步的投資。您可能還記得，在客製化之前，我們在流動性規則和報告等方面有許多相同的規則和標準。因此，我們已經具備了所有能力，或者從營運的角度來看可以快速達到該水準。所以那裡不用擔心。

In terms of the net interest margin. We mentioned just a little bit of pressure in the fourth quarter and then bottoming out. Likely stable, but it will still depend on interest rates, quite frankly, at that particular point in time.

從淨利差來看。我們提到第四季有一點壓力，然後觸底。可能穩定，但坦率地說，它仍然取決於特定時間點的利率。

And next, over to John McDonald with Autonomous Research. (Operator Instructions)

接下來是約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald）的自主研究。 （操作員說明）

Pardon me. We'll go to Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

對不起。我們將和派珀·桑德勒一起去斯科特·西弗斯那裡。

Just as it relates to sort of the balance sheet growth dynamic. So great to see you out of that Fed restriction. Do you see any risk that you'd exceed $700 billion in assets organically, or come into contact with any of the other Cat II restrictions organically in the time frame that would subject you to Cat II rules before your peers would have to get there under new levels? In other words, I'm just trying to kind of make sure that this is indeed just a full free and clear. So just curious of your thoughts there.

正如它與資產負債表成長動態有關。很高興看到你擺脫聯準會的限制。您是否認為您的資產有機地超過 7000 億美元，或者在一段時間內有機地接觸到任何其他 Cat II 限制，從而使您在您的同行必須遵守 Cat II 規則之前受到限制？新水平？換句話說，我只是想確保這確實是完全免費和清晰的。所以只是好奇你的想法。

It is. As Andy mentioned, there's asset cap, so that we have complete flexibility here on our balance sheet going forward. So if we elect to grow or want to grow, and we do want to grow in a capital-efficient manner, we will do so.

這是。正如安迪所提到的，資產上限是存在的，因此我們在未來的資產負債表上擁有完全的靈活性。因此，如果我們選擇成長或想要成長，而我們確實希望以資本效率高的方式成長，我們就會這樣做。

What I would say though, is that we're going to be emphasizing higher-return loans and deemphasizing lower-return type of assets. And I think that will manifest itself as the balance sheet churns. And in addition to that, I would just highlight that in this environment right now, the loan outlook is pretty low. The demand for loans is quite low, given a number of different reasons out there. But that gives us kind of the confidence that we have a lot -- have more time and flexibility here.

但我想說的是，我們將強調高回報貸款，而不強調低迴報類型的資產。我認為這將表現為資產負債表的變動。除此之外，我想強調的是，在目前的環境下，貸款前景相當低。由於多種不同的原因，貸款需求相當低。但這讓我們有信心，我們在這裡擁有更多的時間和靈活性。

Yes. Perfect. Okay. And then I think you might have touched on this in an earlier question, but maybe if you can sort of re-walk us through the sort of AOCI burn-down and cash flow expectations coming off the -- both the AFS and HTM books. And then I think you might have given the duration of the AFS book, but do you have that for the HTM book as well?

是的。完美的。好的。然後我認為您可能在先前的問題中提到了這一點，但也許您可以重新引導我們了解 AFS 和 HTM 書籍中的 AOCI 燃盡和現金流預期。然後我想你可能已經給了 AFS 書的持續時間，但你也給了 HTM 書的持續時間嗎？

Sure. So in terms of the AFS and HTM, we're at about -- in terms of balances, about $162 billion or so, and it's about a 50-50 mix as we mentioned on the call, in terms of AFS and HTM. So we have about, as I mentioned, $3 billion of runoff per quarter on average just given the current interest rate environment and things of that variety.

當然。因此，就 AFS 和 HTM 而言，我們的餘額約為 1620 億美元左右，正如我們在電話會議中提到的，就 AFS 和 HTM 而言，大約是 50-50 的比例。因此，正如我所提到的，考慮到當前的利率環境和各種因素，我們每季平均有大約 30 億美元的徑流。

In terms of our profile, we've been able to hedge about 30% of the fixed rate portion of the AFS book. And so that's what has driven the duration of that particular book in the 3.5 -- less than 3.5 years as we have. That HTM book is principally all agency mortgage-backed securities, which have longer lives. And so it's more in the 6 or so, 6.5 range in terms of the duration of that book.

就我們的情況而言，我們已經能夠對 AFS 帳簿中約 30% 的固定利率部分進行對沖。這就是導致該書的持續時間為 3.5 年的原因——比我們現在的 3.5 年還短。 HTM 帳簿主要是機構抵押貸款擔保證券，這些證券的壽命較長。因此，就該書的持續時間而言，它更多地在 6 左右、6.5 範圍內。

And next, we'll go to Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們將邀請瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

Andy, my first question is for you. Specifically, yesterday's announcement is a big win for the company. And as we think about combining that relief with a generally tighter regulatory environment, what CET1 are you looking at? And what level are you looking at in terms of, okay, now I'm at the right level, this is now my target in the new world. And now in an environment where balance sheet growth is minimal at best, right, I can now return capital back to shareholders through buybacks.

安迪，我的第一個問題是問你的。具體來說，昨天的公告對該公司來說是一個巨大的勝利。當我們考慮將這種救濟與普遍更嚴格的監管環境結合時，您關注的是哪個 CET1？你在看什麼級別，好吧，現在我處於正確的級別，這是我在新世界的目標。現在，在資產負債表成長微乎其微的環境下，我現在可以透過回購將資本返還給股東。

I guess I'm just wondering because there's printed -- your GAAP CET1, there's the adjusted that John gave, right? But then you only have to take into account 25% of that 250 by July 1, 2025, if we get to a final date by then. So there's a lot of moving pieces.

我想我只是想知道，因為印刷了——你的 GAAP CET1，還有約翰給出的調整，對嗎？但如果我們到那時確定最終日期，那麼到 2025 年 7 月 1 日，您只需考慮這 250 個中的 25%。所以有很多移動的部分。

So as your investors think about all the parts that you've made, plus this relief, what is your new target? Is that transitional or fully phased in? And what's the bogey that investors could look forward to that you would hit before returning capital through buybacks?

因此，當您的投資者考慮您已經製造的所有零件以及這種緩解時，您的新目標是什麼？這是過渡性的還是完全分階段的？在透過回購返還資本之前，投資人可能會遇到什麼禁忌？

Yes, Erika, understand the question. And first of all, I just want to highlight, we're back to 9.7%, which is where we started before the deal and we're able to build. We went from 9.7% to 8.4% and built 130 basis points in basically less than a year, which I thought was a great effort across the company.

是的，艾莉卡，明白這個問題。首先，我想強調的是，我們回到了 9.7%，這是我們在交易之前開始的水平，並且我們能夠繼續發展。我們在不到一年的時間裡從 9.7% 上升到 8.4%，並建立了 130 個基點，我認為這是整個公司的巨大努力。

In terms of what our new target is, I think our short-term target is to continue to build, as we talked about. Remember, there's 2 sets of rules that are yet to be finalized and coming down. Number one are the Basel III endgame finalization of rules, which will, in one shape -- one way, shape or form increased capital levels. And the second is clarity on CCAR. We'll set those targets once we have clarity on those 2 items.

就我們的新目標而言，我認為我們的短期目標是繼續建設，就像我們談到的那樣。請記住，有兩套規則尚未最終確定和出台。第一個是《巴塞爾協議III》最終確定的規則，它將以一種形式——一種方式——塑造或形成資本水準的增加。第二個是 CCAR 的明確性。一旦我們明確了這兩項，我們就會設定這些目標。

And so just to follow up here. At least until June 2024 CCAR results, regardless of how quickly you build the capital, either on an adjusted or on a GAAP basis, you're going to continue to be at pause on the buyback until at least then, until we see the CCAR and the SCB?

所以只是在這裡跟進。至少在 2024 年 6 月 CCAR 結果出來之前，無論您建立資本的速度有多快，無論是在調整後還是在 GAAP 基礎上，您都將繼續​​暫停回購，至少到那時，直到我們看到 CCAR和SCB？

That's my expectation, Erika. We want clarity on the finalization of the Basel III and the CCAR, importantly. So we'll be continuing to build capital and determine our capital targets and buffers and all that activity once we have more clarity on the finalization of the rules.

這就是我的期望，艾莉卡。重要的是，我們希望巴塞爾協議 III 和 CCAR 的最終確定能夠清晰。因此，一旦我們對規則的最終確定更加清晰，我們將繼續建立資本並確定我們的資本目標和緩衝以及所有這些活動。

Got it. That's very clear. And just one more for John, if I may. In terms of the net interest income trajectory, I think the fourth quarter bottom is good news, especially relative to what we thought 2 days ago, which would be more RWA mitigation.

知道了。這非常清楚。如果可以的話，再寄一份給約翰。就淨利息收入軌跡而言，我認為第四季度觸底是個好消息，特別是相對於我們兩天前的想法，這將更能緩解 RWA。

As we think about the RWA mitigation ahead that's less impactful to EPS, should we think about it similar to what we saw early in the year in terms of securitizations? Are you more actively -- are you going to continue to use credit-linked notes, which I assume has cost you 12.5% or so of the pool, plus SOFR and the spread?

當我們考慮未來 RWA 緩解措施對每股盈餘影響較小時，我們是否應該像今年年初在證券化方面看到的那樣來考慮它？您是否會更積極地繼續使用信用掛鉤票據，我認為這已經花費了您 12.5% 左右的資金池，加上 SOFR 和利差？

And as we think about those dynamics, do you feel like you have to warehouse more liquidity as we anticipate LCR rules for regional banks? Because we're also hearing that there could be pretty significant haircuts on how they're thinking about HTM as HQLA.

當我們考慮這些動態時，您是否覺得您必須儲存更多流動性，因為我們預期區域銀行的 LCR 規則？因為我們也聽說，他們將 HTM 視為 HQLA 的方式可能會發生相當大的變化。

Sure. Erika, so maybe I'll start with your last point. On LCR, we will -- in addition to what Andy said on the capital side, we're going to have to wait and see what it is on the liquidity side in terms of any potential changes that come out of LCR. We feel very comfortable that we'll be able to achieve whatever that change is and feel that we'll be able to achieve that whatever that scenario is, we'll work into it.

當然。艾莉卡，也許我會從你的最後一點開始。關於 LCR，除了安迪在資本方面所說的之外，我們還必須等待，看看 LCR 帶來的任何潛在變化在流動性方面的情況。我們感到非常放心，我們將能夠實現任何改變，並且感覺我們將能夠實現無論場景是什麼，我們都會努力實現它。

In terms of -- you talked about the net interest income. We feel like it's -- again, just to kind of reiterate, we are looking for that to bottom at this particular point in time in the fourth quarter. And where it kind of goes from there, post, will depend in part by interest rates.

就您談到的淨利息收入而言。我們覺得，再次重申，我們正在尋求在第四季度的這個特定時間點觸底。接下來的走勢將部分取決於利率。

Got it. And congratulations on the release of commitments.

知道了。並祝賀承諾的釋放。

Thanks, Erika.

謝謝，埃里卡。

And next, we'll go to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來，我們將邀請 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Andy, obviously, U.S. Bancorp has developed a reputation of being a strong underwriter, and we've talked about this in the past with you folks. And I was wondering if you could frame out the environment because every bank is talking about credit normalization as you guys did because we had such great numbers coming out of the pandemic on credit. And if you just exclude for a moment the economy, because obviously, none of us can control that.

安迪，顯然，美國合眾銀行已經贏得了作為強大承銷商的聲譽，我們過去曾與你們討論過這一點。我想知道你是否可以框架一下環境，因為每家銀行都像你們一樣在談論信貸正常化，因為我們有如此多的人從大流行中獲得信貸。如果你暫時排除經濟因素，因為顯然我們都無法控制它。

But I'd really be interested in what you guys are seeing from a competitive standpoint in terms of underwriting. And if you could compare it to past cycles. Obviously, we've been around for a few cycles and can compare it. But I'm curious, from your guy's vantage point, is it as risky today as it may have been in '05-'06 or '99-2000? Any color there that you can share with us?

但我真的很感興趣，從核保方面的競爭角度來看，你們看到了什麼。如果你能將它與過去的周期進行比較。顯然，我們已經存在了幾個週期並且可以進行比較。但我很好奇，從你的角度來看，今天的風險是否與 05-06 年或 99-2000 年一樣危險？有什麼顏色可以跟我們分享嗎？

Let me give you the big picture, and I'm going to ask Terry to highlight some specifics. I would say the consumer is entering this cycle in very strong shape from a balance standpoint, from the perspective of savings accounts that they have. The spend activity, I think, are all starting to normalize, but normalize to a pre-pandemic, what I would say, normal level. The companies and small businesses are also in very good shape.

讓我向您介紹一下整體情況，然後我將請特里強調一些具體細節。我想說，從平衡的角度來看，從他們擁有的儲蓄帳戶的角度來看，消費者正在以非常強勁的狀態進入這個週期。我認為，支出活動都開始正常化，但正常化到疫情前的正常水準。公司和小型企業的狀況也非常好。

The one area that we're all very focused on is commercial real estate office, which is one of the areas that we increased our reserve to. As you know, it's at 10% in this quarter. So maybe, Terry, you can go into some specifics.

我們都非常關注的一個領域是商業房地產辦公室，這是我們增加儲備的領域之一。如您所知，本季為 10%。特里，也許你可以談談一些細節。

Yes. And what I would add to that, Gerard, as you know, when we think about underwriting, we really underwrite through a cycle. We try to take into consideration in the stress from an underwriting perspective, what could happen in terms of rising interest rates or other economic factors that could come into play.

是的。我要補充的是，傑拉德，正如你所知，當我們考慮承保時，我們實際上是透過一個週期來承保的。我們嘗試從承保的角度考慮壓力，利率上升或其他可能發揮作用的經濟因素可能會發生什麼。

So we haven't adjusted our underwriting standards a lot as we have been thinking about this particular cycle. I do think that, when you end up looking at the industry, I think there is some tightening that's going on out there. Certainly, from a competitive standpoint, we are seeing that to some extent. But we feel like we're in pretty good shape.

因此，我們沒有對承保標準進行太多調整，因為我們一直在考慮這個特定的週期。我確實認為，當你最終審視這個行業時，我認為那裡正在發生一些收緊的情況。當然，從競爭的角度來看，我們在某種程度上看到了這一點。但我們感覺我們的狀態非常好。

If you end up looking at our situation, as Andy said, probably the area that we're monitoring the most is commercial real estate, office space specifically. We have a reserve that's about 10% of the overall balance there. We have been increasing that, and we're likely to continue to increase that because that's going to be a pressure point.

如果你最終看看我們的情況，正如安迪所說，我們最關注的領域可能是商業房地產，特別是辦公空間。我們的儲備金大約佔總餘額的 10%。我們一直在增加這一點，而且我們可能會繼續增加這一點，因為這將成為一個壓力點。

But we're starting from -- if you think about the overall portfolio, we're starting at fairly low points. Our nonaccrual loans is only 35 basis points of total loans. Our allowance is strong at 2.08%. Delinquencies are still at relatively low levels, though increasing.

但我們是從——如果你考慮整體投資組合，我們是從相當低的點開始的。我們的非應計貸款僅佔總貸款的 35 個基點。我們的津貼高達 2.08%。拖欠率儘管有所增加，但仍處於相對較低的水平。

And our expectation as we go into 2024 is that, that normalization will continue. Delinquencies will continue to kind of move up and nonperforming assets will continue to move up. But I think we're in a really good position in terms of the allowance coverage that we have, and we feel pretty good about that.

進入 2024 年，我們的期望是，正常化將持續下去。拖欠率將持續上升，不良資產將持續上升。但我認為我們在津貼覆蓋範圍方面處於非常有利的位置，我們對此感覺非常好。

Very good. Good to hear your voice, Terry. Just to follow up on what you were saying, from a competitive standpoint, do you sense -- the extreme, of course, was '05-'06, when all of the crazy lending was being done by some banks, but also the nonbanks.

非常好。很高興聽到你的聲音，特里。只是為了跟進你所說的，從競爭的角度來看，你是否感覺到——當然，極端的是“05-”06年，當時所有瘋狂的貸款都是由一些銀行進行的，但也有非銀行機構進行。

When you guys look at the nonbank competitors, are there rogue players out there that are just doing crazy things so that the second derivative impacts the banks? Not because any of the banks, yourself included, made a poor underwriting decision, but it was the competitors that really did something foolish and now the banks are suffering a bit? Or again, not like '06, I'm not suggesting we're there. But just from a comparison standpoint.

當你們觀察非銀行競爭對手時，是否有流氓參與者正在做瘋狂的事情，以便二階導數影響銀行？不是因為任何一家銀行，包括你自己，做出了糟糕的承保決定，而是因為競爭對手確實做了一些愚蠢的事情，現在銀行正在遭受一些痛苦？或者再說一遍，與 06 年不同，我並不是建議我們在那裡。但僅從比較的角度來看。

I think both in the bank and in the nonbank space, I think that people are being fairly rational. Part of the issue is that it's maybe more so on the demand side of the equation as much as anything. I think corporate America is being relatively cautious out there. They're still waiting to see where interest rates settle in at. And until they see more certainty with respect to what the interest rate inflationary environment looks like, I think corporate America has been relatively cautious. And therefore, demand is relatively soft.

我認為無論是在銀行或非銀行領域，人們都是相當理性的。部分問題在於，在需求方面可能更是如此。我認為美國企業界相對謹慎。他們仍在觀望利率穩定在什麼水準。在他們看到利率通膨環境更加確定之前，我認為美國企業界一直相對謹慎。因此，需求相對疲軟。

But we're not seeing, what I would say, crazy things either on the bank or on the nonbank side at this particular point in time. In fact, we're probably seeing -- if you end up looking at commercial real estate, probably a pullback across the board.

但我想說的是，在這個特定的時間點，無論是銀行還是非銀行方面，我們都沒有看到瘋狂的事情。事實上，如果你最終關注商業房地產，我們可能會看到，可能會全面回調。

Great. And then as my second follow-up question, Andy, it was obviously great news that you guys had yesterday about the release. Is there any read-through? Obviously, you sat down with the regulators to get that release and they seemed to be fairly rational in their decision to make that change. There's been a lot of hope and criticism that the Basel III endgame proposals are pretty darn strict. Do you think -- is there any read-through where we may actually see some rationality with the regulators, and they may kind of pare back some of those requirements? Or is that too far of a stretch?

偉大的。然後，作為我的第二個後續問題，安迪，你們昨天收到的有關發布的消息顯然是個好消息。有沒有通讀的？顯然，你與監管機構坐下來獲得了這一消息，他們做出這項改變的決定似乎相當理性。人們對巴塞爾協議 III 的最終提案相當嚴格表示希望和批評。您是否認為——是否有任何通讀，我們實際上可以看到監管機構的一些合理性，並且他們可能會削減其中一些要求？或者這太過分了？

I think the regulators have asked for feedback. The banks will provide feedback, both collectively and individually. I think a lot of the feedback is good feedback because of the consequences to our customers. And I think that's the area of focus that we're going to be very pointed on in terms of our feedback.

我認為監管機構已經要求回饋。銀行將集體和單獨提供回饋。我認為很多回饋都是好的回饋，因為它們對我們的客戶產生了影響。我認為這是我們在回饋方面將非常關注的重點領域。

And we want to make sure that, from a banking standpoint, we're able to serve our customers, and the rule set will create some friction around that in certain categories, and that's where we're going to focus. And my anticipation is that the Fed will listen to our perspectives. And then that's my hope.

我們希望確保，從銀行業的角度來看，我們能夠為客戶提供服務，並且規則集會在某些類別中產生一些摩擦，這就是我們要關注的重點。我的預期是聯準會將聽取我們的觀點。這就是我的希望。

I was just going to say in -- particularly it can be punitive with respect to low- and moderate-income customer base. You see some capital rules related to renewable energy tax credits that don't make -- that seem punitive at this particular point in time. So I do think there's a number of different areas where there's opportunity for adjustment.

我只是想說——特別是對於中低收入客戶群來說，這可能是懲罰性的。你會看到一些與再生能源稅收抵免相關的資本規則在這個特定時間點似乎沒有懲罰性。所以我確實認為有很多不同的領域都有調整的機會。

Next, we'll go to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將與摩根大通一起前往 Vivek Juneja。

Shifting gears from capital, given that you made a lot of progress to just your normal business. Payments, you've talked, Andy, about wanting to grow merchant processing high -- mid- to high single digits, really more in the high single digits; and some of the others in the low double digits, like corporate payments. Any color on -- any thoughts on how you get back up there? Because that hasn't been the case the last couple of quarters. What you need to do or change or what would help you get there?

鑑於您在正常業務方面取得了很大進展，因此正在從資本轉向。安迪，您談到了支付方面的問題，希望將商家處理能力提高到中高個位數，實際上更多是高個位數；以及其他一些低兩位數的支出，例如企業付款。有什麼顏色嗎——你對如何回到那裡有什麼想法嗎？因為過去幾季的情況並非如此。您需要做什麼或改變什麼，或什麼可以幫助您實現這一目標？

I'm going to ask John to start, then I'll add in.

我將請約翰開始，然後我會補充。

Sure. So in terms of merchant processing, we have been making a number of investments over the years and continue to expect that high single digit in terms of the merchant sort of thing. The numbers are -- have been strong this quarter, but there's normalization that has been happening.

當然。因此，在商家處理方面，多年來我們一直在進行大量投資，並繼續期望在商家方面實現高個位數的投資。本季的數字一直很強勁，但已經開始正常化。

And so in the quarter -- the quarter-to-quarter here, the last several quarters, there's been a lot of the nuances coming out of the COVID and all those sorts of things. So if you think about airline tickets and hotels and corporate T&E, those have been very strong, but they are normalizing. That said, services and retail have been strong. And so -- and the retail print that we saw yesterday was very constructive.

因此，在本季度中，在過去的幾個季度中，新冠疫情和所有此類事情帶來了很多細微差別。因此，如果你考慮機票、飯店以及企業差旅娛樂，這些都非常強勁，但它們正在正常化。也就是說，服務業和零售業表現強勁。所以——我們昨天看到的零售印刷品非常有建設性。

So we feel like there's good underpinnings there, in addition to the investments that we make, to continue to believe and give confidence in that -- in our projections there.

因此，我們認為，除了我們所做的投資之外，還有良好的基礎，可以繼續相信並對此充滿信心——我們的預測。

And I think 2 of those important investments, Vivek. Our tech-led initiative, which is about 1/3 of our revenue base right now is tech-led from a perspective of new activity. And secondly is that what we've talked a lot about, which is this business payments ecosystem, which continues to be a top priority for the company because I think it's a huge opportunity for our business banking customer base as well as our commercial customer base. And then you add in what we're getting from Union Bank, I think that's why we're confident in that higher single-digit increase.

我認為其中有兩項重要投資，Vivek。從新活動的角度來看，我們以技術為主導的計劃目前約占我們收入基礎的 1/3。其次，我們已經談論了很多，即商業支付生態系統，它仍然是公司的首要任務，因為我認為這對我們的商業銀行客戶群以及我們的商業客戶群來說都是一個巨大的機會。然後加上我們從聯合銀行獲得的信息，我認為這就是我們對更高個位數成長充滿信心的原因。

Okay. And then another fee business that you mentioned you're expanding, capital markets. Since you're not doing your investor days anymore, any color on what you're doing there to expand that? You've always had the loan syndications and debt capital markets. What else are you doing to step that up in terms of the level of revenues from that?

好的。然後是您提到的正在擴張的另一項收費業務，即資本市場。既然你不再做你的投資者日了，你在那裡做什麼來擴大它有什麼色彩嗎？銀團貸款和債務資本市場一直存在。您還採取了哪些措施來提高收入水準？

Sure. This is John. So the -- we -- this is another area where we have continued to make investments in back-end systems and the frontline, and acquiring talent and all these sorts of things. And it's been a great story for us, and we continue to invest in this going forward.

當然。這是約翰。因此，我們這是另一個領域，我們繼續在後端系統和第一線進行投資，並獲取人才和諸如此類的事情。這對我們來說是一個偉大的故事，我們將繼續對此進行投資。

And along with high-grade and underwriting, there's high yield as well as what -- other areas that have been very strong, is in the derivative market, providing interest rate hedging products for our clients, especially in this time where interest rates are moving around quite a bit, that's a service that has been highly needed. Foreign exchange has been a growing component here as well.

除了高等級和承保之外，還有高收益以及衍生性商品市場中其他非常強勁的領域，為我們的客戶提供利率對沖產品，特別是在利率變動的時期周圍相當多，這是一項非常需要的服務。外匯在這裡也已成為一個日益增長的組成部分。

And particularly now with Union Bank, we have more of a West Coast customer base and more foreign exchange need. In addition to some of the businesses that we work with in the corporate trust side, we have -- as you know, we have businesses in Europe as well. So there's always some form of foreign exchange, and so we've seen a lot of growth there.

特別是現在有了聯合銀行，我們擁有更多的西海岸客戶群和更多的外匯需求。除了我們在企業信託方面合作的一些企業之外，如您所知，我們在歐洲也有業務。因此總是存在某種形式的外匯，因此我們看到了外匯的大量成長。

In addition to that, we've been gaining market share in the investment-grade business and high yield. Over the coming days, I think we've had an investment grade in the top 10 now in terms of market share. So that has been a business that has continued to advance slow and steady, and it's been a good item for us -- business for us.

除此之外，我們在投資級業務和高收益業務方面也持續獲得市場份額。在接下來的幾天裡，我認為就市場份額而言，我們的投資評級現在已經進入前十名。因此，這是一項持續緩慢而穩定發展的業務，這對我們來說是一件好事——對我們來說是生意。

(Operator Instructions) And next, we'll go to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）接下來，我們將與德意志銀行聯繫馬特·奧康納。

I was wondering -- Slide 7 that shows some of the revenue opportunities. I was wondering if you could size that -- related to the UB deal. The revenue synergies related to the UB deal that you outlined on Slide 7, is there any way to frame how big that might be, and over what time frame?

我想知道 - 投影片 7 顯示了一些收入機會。我想知道你能否確定與 UB 交易相關的規模。您在投影片 7 中概述的與 UB 交易相關的收入綜效，是否有任何方法可以確定其規模和時間範圍？

It is a high priority for each of our businesses. Probably the greatest priority is that first one we highlight, which is our credit card opportunity. The payments business is a strength of U.S. Bank. Our card offering is terrific, and we've already had a penetration increase from where we started, and that continues to be a focus. And then you think about that with the business clients as well, I think it is a material impact. But we're still working through exactly the sizing and timing, and we'll continue to update on that. But it is a priority and a focus area for each of our businesses.

這是我們每個企業的首要任務。也許最優先的是我們強調的第一個，那就是我們的信用卡機會。支付業務是美國銀行的強項。我們的信用卡產品非常棒，而且我們的滲透率已經從一開始就有所提高，這仍然是我們關注的焦點。然後你也想想商業客戶，我認為這是一個實質的影響。但我們仍在研究具體的規模和時間安排，並將繼續更新。但這是我們每個業務的優先事項和重點領域。

Okay. And then separately, a little bit of a technical question, I forget some of the CFA materials. But when we look at the securities book of a duration of less than 3.5 years, but you're only burning down 25% through '25. Remind me how that math works. And does the burn-down kind of step up as we think about '26, right? Because the duration is pretty short and the burn-down is not all that much in the first couple of years.

好的。然後分別問了一點技術問題，我忘了一些CFA材料。但是，當我們查看存續期不到 3.5 年的證券帳簿時，到 25 年您只燒掉了 25%。提醒我數學是如何運作的。當我們想到 26 世紀時，這種倦怠感是否會加劇，對嗎？因為持​​續時間很短，而且最初幾年的燒毀程度也不是那麼嚴重。

Yes. The function of the curve really changed as the -- we saw the curve flatten out quite a bit this quarter. What I'd say on that is we have a number of securities that obviously are fixed rate that have longer durations to them, or longer average lives. And so -- and then we have a number of -- with our -- the security portion where we have swaps, that has very, very low-duration. It's 3 months or so because of how it's swapped the floating rate index.

是的。曲線的功能確實發生了變化——我們看到曲線在本季度變得相當平坦。我想說的是，我們有許多顯然是固定利率的證券，它們的久期更長，或者說平均壽命更長。因此，我們有許多安全部分，我們有互換，其持續時間非常非常短。由於浮動利率指數的交換方式，大約有 3 個月左右的時間。

So in addition to that, we've -- as we've added on some of the security book, we have about $8 billion or so of -- when we did some of the auto repack transactions in the fourth quarter of last year as well as the second quarter of this year, that is very short as well in addition to some of the floating rate securities within that book.

因此，除此之外，當我們在去年第四季度進行一些汽車改裝交易時，我們已經添加了大約 80 億美元左右的安全賬簿，如下所示：以及今年第二季度，除了該書中的一些浮動利率證券之外，該季度也非常短。

So that -- it's kind of more of a barbell approach, which gives you the duration of it, which just gives us a value change for a move in interest rates. But in terms of the burn-down, that will depend in part about how the shape and the type of securities that are within the book.

所以，這更像是一種槓鈴方法，它給出了它的持續時間，這只是為我們提供了利率變動的價值變動。但就燃盡而言，這將部分取決於帳簿中證券的形狀和類型。

Okay. That's helpful. Obviously, less relevant now given the Fed's decision, but still something we're all tracking.

好的。這很有幫助。顯然，考慮到聯準會的決定，現在已經不太重要了，但仍然是我們都在追蹤的事情。

And next, we can go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

接下來，我們可以和傑弗里斯一起去見肯·烏斯丁。

So just one more follow-up on the Category II news. I just want to make sure we're super clear. So does $700 billion stop being a bind forever? Or obviously, you don't have to cross on the prior potential time frame. But to the prior question, just wondering. You said there's -- you don't have an asset cap. So does that mean that Category II is now a non-thing for U.S. Bank going forward in any time period? Or when you cross naturally, do you still get on the natural clock of having to comply? Just wondering how that fits in with the news you got yesterday.

以下是第二類新聞的另一則後續報導。我只是想確保我們非常清楚。那麼7000億美元就永遠不再是一個束縛了嗎？或者顯然，您不必跨越先前的潛在時間範圍。但對於之前的問題，我只是想知道。你說你沒有資產上限。那麼，這是否意味著美國銀行在任何時期都不會出現 II 類問題？或者當你自然地穿越時，你是否仍然遵循必須遵守的自然時鐘？只是想知道這與你昨天得到的消息是否相符。

So we're bound, Ken, by the current rule set, which is, after 4 quarters of an average of $700 billion, then you would go to Category II; or the new Basel III rule set which is yet to be finalized, as you said. But the current rule set is what we're bound on. So $700 million still is important, but what we're saying is, given where we think asset growth will be, given our continued optimization in certain categories, given our focus on high-return businesses, we do not see that as a hurdle to growth.

因此，Ken，我們受到當前規則集的約束，即，在 4 個季度平均達到 7000 億美元之後，您將進入第二類；或如您所說，尚未最終確定的新巴塞爾協議 III 規則集。但目前的規則集是我們所必須遵守的。因此，7 億美元仍然很重要，但我們要說的是，考慮到我們認為資產成長的程度，考慮到我們在某些​​類別上的持續優化，考慮到我們對高回報業務的關注，我們認為這不會成為實現目標的障礙。生長。

Understood. Okay. That's what I wanted to clarify.

明白了。好的。這就是我想澄清的。

And with no further questions, I'll hand the call back over to George Andersen.

沒有其他問題，我會將電話轉回給喬治安德森。

Thanks, Brad. Thank you, everyone, for listening to our earnings call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

謝謝，布拉德。感謝大家收聽我們的財報電話會議。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。

This does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。