美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 a.m. Central Time.

歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。審查結果後，將舉行正式的問答環節。 （操作員說明）將從今天中部時間上午 11:00 左右開始對該通話進行錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Terry Dolan, our Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer; and John Stern, Senior Executive Vice President and Head of Finance. During initial prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation, our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝布拉德，大家早上好。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere；特里·多蘭 (Terry Dolan)，我們的副主席兼首席財務官；約翰·斯特恩（John Stern），高級執行副總裁兼財務主管。在最初準備的發言中，安迪和特里將參考幻燈片演示。演示文稿、收益報告和補充分析師時間表的副本可在我們的網站 usbank.com 上獲取。

Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, our press release, our Form 10-K and in subsequent reports on file with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Andy, Terry, and John will take any questions that you have.

請注意，今天的電話會議中做出的任何前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。今天演示文稿的第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿、我們的 10-K 表格以及向 SEC 歸檔的後續報告中描述了可能對我們當前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。在我們準備好的發言之後，安迪、特里和約翰將回答您提出的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在將把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'll begin on Slide 3. The second quarter was highlighted by our successful conversion of Union Bank and a meaningful increase in our common equity Tier 1 ratio to 9.1%, 60 basis points higher than the first quarter, driven by earnings accretion and balance sheet optimization actions. Earnings per share totaled $0.84 in the second quarter, including $0.28 per share of notable items. Excluding the impact of notable items, earnings per share was $1.12.

謝謝，喬治。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的通話。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。在盈利增長和余額的推動下，第二季度的亮點是我們成功轉換了聯合銀行，並且我們的普通股一級資本比率顯著提高至 9.1%，比第一季度高 60 個基點工作表優化操作。第二季度每股收益總計 0​​.84 美元，其中顯著項目每股收益 0.28 美元。排除顯著項目的影響，每股收益為 1.12 美元。

Slide 4 provides reported and adjusted income statement results and other key metrics. Our second quarter results were supported by new customer account growth and deepening of relationships across our business lines as well as continued disciplined expense management. Net interest income was lower compared with the first quarter primarily due to pressures on deposit pricing. However, momentum in fee income businesses continue strong.

幻燈片 4 提供了報告和調整後的損益表結果以及其他關鍵指標。我們第二季度的業績得益於新客戶賬戶的增長、跨業務線關係的深化以及持續嚴格的費用管理。淨利息收入較第一季度下降，主要是由於存款定價壓力。然而，手續費收入業務的勢頭依然強勁。

One of the strengths of our business model is our diverse and stable funding that includes a mix of both consumer and operational wholesale deposits. This quarter, while our average deposit balances decreased by 2.6% linked quarter, period-end deposits were higher by 3.2% or approximately $522 billion, largely reflective of seasonal operational deposit flows in areas such as our corporate banking and trust businesses. Credit quality metrics remain strong versus pre-pandemic levels, but are normalizing as expected. This quarter, we strengthened our balance sheet by increasing the loan loss reserve, reflective of our prudent approach to credit risk management.

我們業務模式的優勢之一是我們多元化且穩定的資金，其中包括消費者和運營批發存款的組合。本季度，雖然我們的平均存款餘額環比下降了 2.6%，但期末存款增加了 3.2%，即約 5,220 億美元，這主要反映了我們的企業銀行和信託業務等領域的季節性運營存款流量。與大流行前的水平相比，信用質量指標仍然強勁，但正在按預期正常化。本季度，我們通過增加貸款損失準備金來強化資產負債表，反映了我們審慎的信用風險管理方法。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, our return on average assets was 1.07%, and our return on tangible common equity was 22.3%.

幻燈片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。排除顯著項目，我們的平均資產回報率為 1.07%，有形普通股回報率為 22.3%。

Slide 6 provides a summary of our recently completed conversion of Union Bank. Following our main systems conversion on Memorial Day weekend, all credit card, trust and investment accounts were transitioned to our platform in June. Early indications are encouraging, and I'm even more confident today of the strategic and financial merits of this deal. We continue to expect meaningful revenue opportunities, and our cost synergy targets remain intact.

幻燈片 6 總結了我們最近完成的聯合銀行轉換。在陣亡將士紀念日週末進行主系統轉換後，所有信用卡、信託和投資賬戶均於 6 月轉移到我們的平台。早期跡象令人鼓舞，今天我對這筆交易的戰略和財務優點更加充滿信心。我們繼續期待有意義的收入機會，並且我們的成本協同目標保持不變。

One highlight is the Union Bank customers are adopting our digital capabilities more quickly than expected. As of June 30, just 1 month following conversion, we have had over 0.5 million enrollments in our digital product offerings and this number continues to grow. Our teams are working diligently to leverage the value of overlaying all of our products and services to Union Bank customers as we continue to provide -- and we will continue to provide updates on our progress.

一大亮點是聯合銀行客戶採用我們數字功能的速度比預期更快。截至 6 月 30 日，即轉換後僅 1 個月，我們的數字產品註冊人數已超過 50 萬，而且這一數字還在繼續增長。我們的團隊正在努力工作，以利用我們為聯合銀行客戶提供的所有產品和服務的價值，同時我們將繼續提供最新進展。

I'll now turn the call over to Terry who'll provide more detail on the quarter.

我現在將把電話轉給特里，他將提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Andy. Turning to Slide 7. Our balanced mix of consumer, corporate and commercial deposits continues to be a key source of strength for the bank. As Andy highlighted, while average total deposits declined 2.6% or $13.1 billion on a linked-quarter basis, we ended the period with $522 billion of deposits, representing a 3.2% increase in ending balances on a linked quarter. This quarter, our end-of-period percent of noninterest-bearing deposits declined to approximately 20% from 25% in the first quarter due to both industry dynamics and a change we made to Union Bank retail accounts at conversion.

謝謝，安迪。轉向幻燈片 7。我們的消費者、企業和商業存款的均衡組合仍然是銀行實力的關鍵來源。正如 Andy 所強調的，雖然平均總存款環比下降 2.6%，即 131 億美元，但我們在本季度末的存款額為 5,220 億美元，意味著環比期末餘額增長了 3.2%。本季度，由於行業動態以及我們在轉換時對聯合銀行零售賬戶所做的更改，我們的無息存款期末百分比從第一季度的 25% 下降至約 20%。

Specifically, about half of the decline was related to an increase in deposit volumes and mix shift, while the other half was primarily driven by customer-friendly product conversion decision by us. To create a more positive customer experience, we upgraded Union Bank customers to our interest-bearing Bank Smartly Checking product, which offers a better checking solution as well as other benefits. This change will provide customer retention benefits without a material impact on our net interest margin.

具體來說，大約一半的下降與存款量的增加和組合轉變有關，而另一半主要是由我們的客戶友好型產品轉換決策推動的。為了創造更積極的客戶體驗，我們將聯合銀行客戶升級為我們的計息銀行智能支票產品，該產品提供更好的支票解決方案以及其他好處。這一變化將提供客戶保留優勢，而不會對我們的淨息差產生重大影響。

Given current interest rate volatility and the significant competition for deposits across the industry, we now expect our cumulative deposit beta to be in the mid-40% range by the end of this rate cycle, slightly higher than our previous expectation, but consistent with the deposit pricing dynamics in the industry.

考慮到當前的利率波動以及整個行業對存款的激烈競爭，我們現在預計，到本次利率週期結束時，我們的累計存款貝塔值將在 40% 左右，略高於我們之前的預期，但與我們的預期一致。行業存款定價動態。

On Slide 8, average loan -- average total loans this quarter were $389 billion, which was flat on a linked-quarter basis and up 19.9% year-over-year. Commercial real estate loans represent approximately 14% of our total average loan portfolio, with commercial real estate office exposure representing only 2% of total loans and 1% of total commitments. Our office exposure is well balanced among suburban, specialty and central business districts and had a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of approximately 55% at initial underwriting. Given current macro factors as well as other portfolio considerations, we increased the reserve ratio for commercial real estate office loans to 8.5%.

在幻燈片 8 中，平均貸款——本季度平均總貸款為 3890 億美元，環比持平，同比增長 19.9%。商業房地產貸款約占我們平均貸款組合總額的 14%，商業房地產寫字樓貸款僅佔貸款總額的 2% 和承諾總額的 1%。我們的寫字樓業務在郊區、專業區和中央商務區之間均衡分佈，初始承保時的加權平均貸款價值比約為 55%。考慮到當前宏觀因素以及其他組合因素，我們將商業地產寫字樓貸款準備金率提高至8.5%。

Turning to Slide 9. We reported diluted earnings per share of $0.84 for the quarter or $1.12 per share after adjusting for notable items in the amount of $575 million or $0.28 per diluted common share. Notable items this quarter included $310 million of merger and integration-related charges associated with the acquisition of Union Bank as well as $265 million related to balance sheet optimization and capital management actions, largely driven by a provision charge of $243 million related to securitization of approximately $4.4 billion of indirect auto loans as well as an additional $4.2 billion sale of Union Bank mortgage loans. These moves enable us to more effectively position the balance sheet for profitable growth and optimize returns.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們報告本季度稀釋後每股收益為 0.84 美元，或在對 5.75 億美元或每股稀釋普通股 0.28 美元的重要項目進行調整後每股 1.12 美元。本季度值得注意的項目包括與收購聯合銀行相關的 3.1 億美元的合併和整合相關費用，以及與資產負債表優化和資本管理行動相關的 2.65 億美元，這主要是由與約 2.43 億美元的證券化相關的撥備費用推動的。 44 億美元的間接汽車貸款以及另外 42 億美元的聯合銀行抵押貸款銷售。這些舉措使我們能夠更有效地調整資產負債表，實現盈利增長並優化回報。

Slide 10 provides a more detailed earnings summary for the quarter.

幻燈片 10 提供了本季度更詳細的收益摘要。

Turning to Slide 11. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled approximately $4.4 billion, which represented a 4.7% decrease on a linked-quarter basis and a 28.4% increase from a year ago due to the impact of rising rates and the acquisition of Union Bank. Our net interest margin declined from 3.10% in the first quarter to 2.90% in the second quarter, which is somewhat lower than expected. The linked-quarter decline was primarily due to the impact of maintaining higher cash levels, given the debt ceiling concerns and deposit pricing pressures partially offset by higher rates on earning assets.

轉向幻燈片 11。由於利率上升和收購的影響，完全應稅等值基礎上的淨利息收入總計約為 44 億美元，環比下降 4.7%，同比增長 28.4%聯合銀行的。我們的淨息差從一季度的3.10%下降至二季度的2.90%，略低於預期。環比下降主要是由於維持較高現金水平的影響，因為債務上限擔憂和存款定價壓力被生息資產利率上升部分抵消。

Slide 12 highlights trends in noninterest income. Noninterest income increased 8.7% or $219 million on a linked-quarter basis, driven by higher payment services revenue, trust and investment management fees and commercial product revenues. Within payment services, revenue increased $112 million on a linked-quarter basis, reflecting credit card revenue growth of $62 million or 17.2% driven by higher margins and sales volume and an increase in merchant processing revenue of $49 million or 12.7%, driven by pricing. Also noteworthy were increases in trust and investment management fees of $31 million or 5.3%, driven by core business growth and commercial product revenue of $24 million or 7.2%, driven by strong debt capital markets activity in the quarter. Compared with a year ago, noninterest income for the company increased $178 million or 7.0% largely driven by higher core fee income.

幻燈片 12 突出顯示了非利息收入的趨勢。由於支付服務收入、信託和投資管理費以及商業產品收入增加，非利息收入環比增長 8.7%，即 2.19 億美元。在支付服務領域，收入環比增長 1.12 億美元，其中信用卡收入增長 6,200 萬美元，即 17.2%，原因是利潤率和銷量增加，而商戶處理收入增長 4,900 萬美元，即 12.7%，原因是定價。另外值得注意的是，受本季度強勁的債務資本市場活動推動，核心業務增長推動信託和投資管理費增長 3100 萬美元，即 5.3%；商業產品收入增長 2400 萬美元，即 7.2%。與去年同期相比，該公司的非利息收入增加了 1.78 億美元，增幅為 7.0%，這主要是由於核心費用收入增加。

Turning to Slide 13. Reported noninterest expense for the company totaled $4.6 billion in the second quarter, which included $310 million of merger and integration-related charges. Noninterest expense, as adjusted, decreased $52 million or 1.2% on a linked-quarter basis.

轉向幻燈片 13。第二季度報告的公司非利息支出總計 46 億美元，其中包括 3.1 億美元的合併和整合相關費用。調整後的非利息支出環比減少 5,200 萬美元，即 1.2%。

Slide 14 shows credit quality trends, which continue to be strong from a historical perspective, but are normalizing as expected. The ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.29% at June 30 compared to 0.30% at March 31 and 0.23% a year ago. Our second quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.35% as adjusted increased 5 basis points from a first quarter level of 0.30% as adjusted and was higher when compared to the second quarter 2022 level of 0.20%. Our allowance for credit losses as of June 30 totaled $7.7 billion or 2.03% of period-end loans.

幻燈片 14 顯示了信貸質量趨勢，從歷史角度來看，信貸質量趨勢仍然強勁，但正在按預期正常化。截至6月30日，不良資產與貸款和其他房地產的比率為0.29%，而3月31日為0.30%，一年前為0.23%。我們第二季度調整後的淨沖銷率為 0.35%，較第一季度調整後的 0.30% 增加了 5 個基點，高於 2022 年第二季度 0.20% 的水平。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 77 億美元，佔期末貸款的 2.03%。

Turning to Slide 15. We accelerated our capital actions and ended the quarter with a CET1 capital ratio of 9.1%. The 60 basis points linked-quarter increase in the CET1 ratio reflected 20 basis points of earnings accretion, net of distributions and an additional 40 basis points attributable to risk-weighted assets and other balance sheet optimization initiatives with low to neutral earnings impact. During the quarter, we received the results of the Federal Reserve's 2023 stress test, and we expect to be subject to the minimum stress capital buffer requirement of 2.5%, which is unchanged from last year, despite this year's more stressful economic scenario and an additional $1.4 billion of merger-related charges with limited recognition of cost synergies related to Union Bank.

轉向幻燈片 15。我們加快了資本行動，本季度末 CET1 資本比率為 9.1%。 CET1 比率環比增長 60 個基點，反映出扣除分配後的盈利增長 20 個基點，以及風險加權資產和其他對盈利影響較低至中性的資產負債表優化舉措帶來的額外 40 個基點。本季度，我們收到了美聯儲 2023 年壓力測試的結果，我們預計將受到 2.5% 的最低壓力資本緩衝要求的約束，這與去年持平，儘管今年的經濟形勢更加緊張，而且還有額外的壓力。 14 億美元的合併相關費用，對與聯合銀行相關的成本協同效應的認可有限。

I will provide third quarter and updated full year 2023 forward-looking guidance on Slide 16. Starting with third quarter 2023 guidance. We expect net interest income of between $4.2 billion and $4.4 billion in the third quarter. Total revenue as adjusted is estimated to be in the range of $6.9 billion to $7.1 billion, including approximately $75 million of purchase accounting accretion. Total noninterest expense as adjusted is expected to be approximately $4.3 billion, inclusive of approximately $120 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to the Union Bank acquisition. Our income tax rate as adjusted is expected to be approximately 23% to 24% on a taxable equivalent basis. We expect merger and integration charges of between $150 million to $200 million in the third quarter.

我將在幻燈片 16 上提供第三季度和更新的 2023 年全年前瞻性指引。從 2023 年第三季度指引開始。我們預計第三季度淨利息收入將在 42 億美元至 44 億美元之間。調整後的總收入預計在 69 億美元至 71 億美元之間，其中包括約 7500 萬美元的採購會計增值。調整後的非利息支出總額預計約為 43 億美元，其中包括與聯合銀行收購相關的約 1.2 億美元核心存款無形攤銷。按應稅等值基礎計算，調整後的所得稅稅率預計約為 23% 至 24%。我們預計第三季度的合併和整合費用將在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間。

I will now provide updated guidance for the full year. For 2023, net interest income is expected to be in the range of $17.5 billion to $18.0 billion. Total revenue as adjusted is now expected to be in the range of $28.0 billion to $29.0 billion, inclusive of approximately $330 million of full year purchase accounting accretion. Total noninterest expense as adjusted for the year is expected to be approximately $17 billion, inclusive of approximately $500 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to Union Bank. Our estimated full year income tax rate on a taxable equivalent basis as adjusted is expected to be approximately 23% to 24%. We continue to expect to have $900 million to $1 billion of merger and integration charges in 2023 and total merger and integration costs of approximately $1.4 billion, consistent with earlier guidance.

我現在將提供全年的最新指導。 2023年，淨利息收入預計在175億美元至180億美元之間。調整後的總收入目前預計在 280 億美元至 290 億美元之間，其中包括約 3.3 億美元的全年採購會計增長。全年調整後的非利息支出總額預計約為 170 億美元，其中包括與聯合銀行相關的約 5 億美元的核心存款無形攤銷。根據調整後的應稅等值基礎，我們預計全年所得稅稅率預計約為 23% 至 24%。我們仍然預計 2023 年的合併和整合費用將達到 9 億至 10 億美元，合併和整合總成本約為 14 億美元，與之前的指導一致。

I will now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

現在我將把它交還給安迪，讓他作結束語。

Thanks, Terry. I'll finish up on Slide 17. The strength and stability of our balance sheet remains a differentiator for our company, and these metrics indicate -- as these metrics indicate, we are well capitalized and prepared for a potentially more challenging economic environment given our strong liquidity, diversified business mix and consistent and disciplined approach to credit risk management. Building capital remains a top priority as we prepare for Category II designation, and we are confident in our ability to execute on our strategic growth opportunities and key initiatives.

謝謝，特里。我將在幻燈片 17 上結束。我們的資產負債表的實力和穩定性仍然是我們公司的一個差異化因素，這些指標表明，正如這些指標所表明的，我們資本充足，並為可能更具挑戰性的經濟環境做好了準備。強大的流動性、多元化的業務組合以及一致且嚴格的信用風險管理方法。在我們準備第二類指定時，積累資本仍然是首要任務，我們對執行戰略增長機會和關鍵舉措的能力充滿信心。

Following the successful conversion of Union Bank this quarter, we entered the second half of the year well positioned as a national banking franchise with increased scale, broader reach and meaningful revenue growth opportunities provided by the addition of 1.2 million new consumer and small business customers. Across the business, from consumer to wealth management and commercial to business banking, we see significant opportunities to provide legacy Union Bank customers with a broad set of our products and services and industry-leading digital capabilities.

繼本季度聯合銀行成功轉型後，我們進入下半年，成為一家全國性銀行特許經營機構，規模擴大，覆蓋面更廣，新增 120 萬消費者和小企業客戶帶來了有意義的收入增長機會。在整個業務中，從消費者到財富管理，從商業銀行到企業銀行，我們看到了為傳統聯合銀行客戶提供廣泛的產品和服務以及行業領先的數字功能的巨大機會。

Additionally, the $900 million of identified cost synergies are still expected to be fully reflected in run rate savings as we head into 2024. Let me close by thanking our employees for all that they do to help provide exceptional service that makes us a destination of choice for our clients and a valued partner to all our stakeholders. We'll now open up the call to Q&A.

此外，隨著我們進入 2024 年，預計 9 億美元的已確定成本協同效應仍將充分反映在運行率節省中。最後，我要感謝我們的員工為幫助提供卓越服務所做的一切，使我們成為首選目的地為我們的客戶和所有利益相關者提供寶貴的合作夥伴。我們現在將開放問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) We'll first go to Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們首先與 Piper Sandler 一起去找 Scott Siefers。

I was hoping maybe we could start out with a couple of thoughts or expanded thoughts on capital. Maybe just sort of a refresher on anticipated capital build from here, especially in light of just how quickly you -- just how quick the pace was in the second quarter. And then ideally, sort of what you're targeting presumably under Category II rules and when you might get there in your view.

我希望我們可以從一些關於資本的想法或擴展的想法開始。也許只是回顧一下這裡的預期資本建設，特別是考慮到第二季度的步伐有多快。然後，理想情況下，您可能會根據第二類規則確定目標是什麼，以及您認為何時可能實現目標。

Yes. Thanks, Scott. I think that we ended up at 9.1% CET1 at the end of the second quarter. Our expectation now through the rest of this year is that we'll be at least at 9.5% by the end of the year. And that's going to be a function of earnings accretion, net of distributions as well as some continued actions from a risk-weighted asset perspective. We had originally articulated about 50 basis points of risk-weighted asset optimization over kind of the 2-year time horizon. We felt like we could accelerate that a lot because the vast majority of them were what I would call low to neutral impact on earnings accretion.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。我認為第二季度末我們的 CET1 達到了 9.1%。我們現在預計今年剩餘時間裡，到年底我們的增長率將至少達到 9.5%。這將取決於收益增長、扣除分配以及從風險加權資產角度來看的一些持續行動。我們最初闡述了在 2 年時間範圍內大約 50 個基點的風險加權資產優化。我們覺得我們可以大大加快這一進程，因為我所說的絕大多數對盈利增長的影響是低到中性的。

We still have a number of different levers that we can pull, some of which we'll be able to execute on this year, some of which is in preparation for 2024. But we feel very confident that we have a game plan in order to be able to get to at least 9.5% by the end of this year and to be in a position to be able to fully adopt Category II by the end of 2024, if necessary.

我們仍然有許多不同的槓桿可以使用，其中一些我們將能夠在今年執行，其中一些正在為 2024 年做準備。但我們非常有信心，我們有一個遊戲計劃，以便到今年年底能夠達到至少 9.5%，並能夠在必要時到 2024 年底完全採用 II 類。

Okay. All right. Perfect. And then maybe a question on the deposits. Appreciate all the commentary on the noninterest-bearing runoff being, I guess, about half driven by the product change as you integrated the Union Bank customers. But just given the sort of the optics of it, just curious of any thoughts. Is that pretty much done? Or would you expect for the broader or entirety of the firm, could NIB balances still continue to flow out just in light of where interest rates are? And where would you see those fleshing out maybe as a percent of total deposits?

好的。好的。完美的。然後也許是關於存款的問題。感謝所有關於無息徑流的評論，我猜，大約一半是由您整合聯合銀行客戶時的產品變化驅動的。但只是考慮到它的光學原理，只是對任何想法感到好奇。這樣就差不多完成了嗎？或者您是否預計，對於整個公司而言，NIB 餘額是否仍會根據利率水平繼續流出？您會在哪裡看到這些內容可能佔總存款的百分比？

Scott, this is John. So in terms of the DDA mix, you illustrated that correctly. We moved about $15 billion of deposits over into the Bank Smartly Interest Checking product, and so that gets us to about 20% ratio. We think that, that's about where we land here. It will be plus or minus, of course, as we kind of go through the quarters, but we think that we're at a low point here.

斯科特，這是約翰。因此，就 DDA 組合而言，您的說明是正確的。我們將大約 150 億美元的存款轉移到銀行智能利息檢查產品中，這樣我們的比率就達到了 20% 左右。我們認為，這就是我們降落在這裡的地方。當然，隨著我們經歷這個季度，這將是正數或負數，但我們認為我們正處於低點。

And next, we can go to John Pancari with Evercore.

接下來，我們可以和 Evercore 一起請約翰·潘卡里 (John Pancari)。

Regarding your net interest income guidance of the $17.5 billion to $18 billion, beyond the noninterest-bearing mix commentary that you just provided, can you also help unpack that guidance in terms of overall deposit growth expectations as well as maybe the margin assumption behind that and loan growth as well, if possible?

關於 175 億美元至 180 億美元的淨利息收入指導，除了您剛才提供的無息組合評論之外，您是否還可以幫助從總體存款增長預期以及背後的利潤率假設方面解釋該指導？如果可能的話，貸款也會增長嗎？

Sure, this is John again. So a couple of things I would say maybe just to provide additional context. As you saw in our results, we saw a big increase in our deposits, up 3% on a period-ending basis to $522 billion. And then we had with -- as Terry mentioned about our capital actions, we had loans drop as a start point of about 2%, given the auto and the mortgage sale that we talked about within our comments. And so as I think about those things, we will have the ability to be a little bit more disciplined and moderate in our deposit pricing as we go forward, given that line of thinking.

當然，這又是約翰。所以我想說的幾件事也許只是為了提供更多背景信息。正如您在我們的業績中看到的那樣，我們的存款大幅增加，期末增長 3%，達到 5,220 億美元。然後，正如特里提到的我們的資本行動，考慮到我們在評論中談到的汽車和抵押貸款銷售，我們的貸款下降了約 2%。因此，當我考慮這些事情時，考慮到這一思路，我們將有能力在前進的過程中在存款定價方面更加自律和適度。

And in addition, I think that as we bring on new loans, those loans are coming in at wider spreads, although loan growth is a little bit stalled as there's a little bit less demand for that in the near term here. And the mix here of loans should be more favorable as we're bringing on cards and less in mortgage and auto. So those are kind of the puts and takes to how we came up with the net interest income guidance.

此外，我認為，隨著我們提供新貸款，這些貸款的利差將會擴大，儘管貸款增長有點停滯，因為短期內對貸款的需求有所減少。這裡的貸款組合應該更加有利，因為我們正在引入信用卡，而抵押貸款和汽車貸款則更少。這些就是我們如何提出淨利息收入指導的看跌期權和看跌期權。

And then I think you made a comment about deposits there as well, and I can just touch on that. I think on deposit side, we would -- even though we had a large seasonal uplift as typical in the second quarter from our corporate trust and commercial businesses that bring in deposit balances, as that begins to normalize, we think we're probably in line with the industry, which we anticipate being more of a decline, given the quantitative tightening and all the other sorts of things that are headwinds for deposits in the industry.

然後我認為您也對那裡的存款發表了評論，我可以談談這一點。我認為在存款方面，儘管我們的企業信託和商業業務在第二季度出現了典型的季節性大幅增長，帶來了存款餘額，但隨著這種情況開始正常化，我們認為我們可能處於與該行業一致，考慮到量化緊縮和其他對該行業存款不利的因素，我們預計該行業的下降幅度更大。

Yes. And the other thing I would just mention, John, you asked a question regarding NIM. Our expectation now just kind of looking at the market implied rate environment is that NIM is probably down a few basis points in the third quarter and then relatively stable through the rest of the year.

是的。我要提到的另一件事是，John，你問了一個關於 NIM 的問題。我們現在的預期是，從市場隱含利率環境來看，淨息差可能在第三季度下降幾個基點，然後在今年剩餘時間內相對穩定。

Got it. That's very helpful. And just lastly, the confidence in your through-cycle deposit beta of about 40%, it looks like we have a number of banks that are turning to the high 40s and into the 50s. Just what gives you the confidence in that through-cycle beta expectation of around 40%?

知道了。這非常有幫助。最後，對整個週期存款貝塔值的信心約為 40%，看起來我們有許多銀行正在轉向 40 多歲和 50 多歲。是什麼讓您對 40% 左右的整個週期 Beta 預期充滿信心？

Yes. So we're looking at -- we're coming -- our calculation shows at about 39% in the current beta and we were indicating mid-40s is where we'll land. And I think it just goes back to some of the things that we talked about earlier, where we did have a big flight in of deposits. We think -- well, we have loans that have come down, given the capital actions and so that gives us a little bit more flexibility with pricing. But of course, there'll be pressure as it relates to deposit betas, just as we go through it. But all of that is kind of baked into our mid-40s guide.

是的。所以我們正在考慮——我們即將到來——我們的計算顯示，在當前的測試版中，這一比例約為 39%，我們表明 40 歲左右是我們將著陸的地方。我認為這又回到了我們之前討論過的一些事情，我們確實有大量存款外流。我們認為，考慮到資本行動，我們的貸款已經減少，這讓我們在定價方面有了更大的靈活性。但當然，正如我們經歷的那樣，與存款貝塔相關的壓力將會存在。但所有這些都已經融入了我們的 40 多歲指南中。

Next, we can go to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

接下來，我們可以和美國銀行一起去Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just wanted to follow up on this capital build. It's obviously a big topic. As we think about future RWA optimization, remind -- I think you mentioned some of the low-hanging fruit, I guess, things that were EPS neutral. It seems like you executed on those this quarter. As we look forward to, I think you mentioned some actions in the back half come into 2024, how punitive are those going to be from an EPS standpoint that we should think about? I'm assuming that's in your guidance for '23, but give us a sense of just the EPS hit from these actions. And how much more of RWA optimization that should we think about between now and, let's say, year-end '24?

只是想跟進這個資本建設。這顯然是一個很大的話題。當我們考慮未來的 RWA 優化時，請提醒——我認為您提到了一些容易實現的目標，我猜，這些都是 EPS 中性的。看來您本季度執行了這些任務。正如我們期待的那樣，我想您提到了 2024 年下半年的一些行動，從 EPS 的角度來看，我們應該考慮這些行動會有多大的懲罰性？我假設這是您 23 年的指導，但請讓我們了解這些行動對每股收益的影響。從現在到 24 年底，我們還應該考慮多少 RWA 優化？

Yes, great question, Ebrahim. And so let me maybe unpack it a little bit in terms of the different types of actions that we are likely to take. One as an example is we're going to be kind of winding down a cash provisioning of business. So that will have very minimal impact from an earnings perspective because it's not that big of a business, but it is a pretty significant user of capital in terms of risk-weighted assets. So that's one area and one example of how we still think that there is low to neutral sort of opportunity in terms of enhancing or improving the risk-weighted asset position.

是的，很好的問題，易卜拉欣。因此，讓我根據我們可能採取的不同類型的行動來稍微解釋一下。舉個例子，我們將逐步減少現金供應業務。因此，從盈利角度來看，這產生的影響非常小，因為它的業務規模不大，但就風險加權資產而言，它是相當重要的資本使用者。因此，這是我們仍然認為在增強或改善風險加權資產頭寸方面存在低至中性機會的一個領域和一個例子。

We'll continue to be focused on reducing our MSR, our mortgage servicing right portfolio over the course of the next several quarters. That's an area that, again, it has some impact, but it's not significant. And probably more importantly, it allows us to rebalance the size of the mortgage exposure, mortgage portfolio relative to the overall size of the business.

在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將繼續專注於減少我們的 MSR，即我們的抵押貸款服務權投資組合。這也是一個有一定影響的領域，但並不重要。也許更重要的是，它使我們能夠重新平衡抵押貸款風險、抵押貸款投資組合相對於業務整體規模的規模。

We'll continue to look at, kind of similarly, mortgage loan sales out of the Union Bank portfolio. Again, that reduces our concentration in California and should have minimal sort of impact kind of on a go-forward basis. And then there's just a number of other things, similar sort of structures that we've done. But the other thing that we're working on between now and the end of the year, which will kind of position us well to be able to continue to improve on a risk-weighted asset basis, is setting up some securitization programs related to some of our other balance sheet asset positions.

我們將繼續關注聯合銀行投資組合中的抵押貸款銷售情況。同樣，這減少了我們在加利福尼亞州的集中度，並且對未來的影響應該是最小的。然後還有許多其他的事情，我們已經完成了類似的結構。但從現在到今年年底，我們正在做的另一件事是建立一些與某些相關的證券化計劃，這將使我們能夠在風險加權資產的基礎上繼續改進。我們的其他資產負債表資產頭寸。

That's helpful. And just one follow-up. Strategically, I think the one question is this environment should be ideal for USB to take market share. Competitors are under pressure. Clearly, your balance sheet holding up quite well. Give us a sense of just how much of constrained capital levels are today as you think about getting new customer growth, picking up market share, adding -- sort of maximizing the Union franchise. Just how much of a restrictive factor capital is to accomplish all of those?

這很有幫助。只有一個後續行動。從戰略上講，我認為唯一的問題是這種環境對於 USB 佔據市場份額來說應該是理想的。競爭對手面臨壓力。顯然，您的資產負債表狀況良好。讓我們了解一下，當您考慮獲得新客戶增長、擴大市場份額、增加——某種程度最大化聯盟特許經營權時，今天的資本水平受到多大程度的限制。要實現所有這些目標，資本的限制性因素有多大？

Yes. Go ahead, Andy.

是的。繼續吧，安迪。

So Ebrahim, I wouldn't say it's a constraint. We're focused on profitable growth. We have a diverse set of business products and services that allow us to grow in a capital-efficient way. I mean I'll give you a couple of examples. The Union Bank customer base, about 80% of the consumer small businesses are single-service customers. Their penetration on credit cards is about half of what ours is across the legacy U.S. banks. So we have a lot of opportunities to deepen relationships in a very capital-efficient way, given the broad product set that we have. So that is an opportunity that we're very much focused on looking forward to and not feeling constrained.

所以易卜拉欣，我不會說這是一個限制。我們專注於盈利增長。我們擁有多樣化的業務產品和服務，使我們能夠以資本高效的方式發展。我的意思是我會給你幾個例子。在聯合銀行的客戶群中，約80%的消費小企業是單一服務客戶。他們對信用卡的滲透率約為美國傳統銀行滲透率的一半。因此，鑑於我們擁有廣泛的產品組合，我們有很多機會以非常資本高效的方式加深關係。因此，這是一個我們非常期待的機會，而不是感到受到限制。

Yes. And many of those single service our balance sheet today. Deepening the relationship will be as much focused on fee-based sort of businesses, which are capital efficient, as Andy said.

是的。其中許多單一服務於我們今天的資產負債表。正如安迪所說，深化合作關係將重點關注收費業務，這些業務具有資本效率。

And next, we'll move to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將邀請 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Really good fee result this quarter. I just wanted to ask you, as I'm looking at the payment slide on Page 19, it does look like the year-over-year growth rates did all slow versus the first quarter. Can you just talk about what's going on across the payments with regards to just where the consumer is and how you expect corporate spending to trend as you look ahead, given the potential for a slowing economy?

本季度的費用結果非常好。我只是想問你，當我查看第 19 頁的付款幻燈片時，看起來同比增長率確實比第一季度有所放緩。您能談談支付方面的情況嗎？考慮到消費者在哪裡，以及考慮到經濟放緩的可能性，您預計未來企業支出的趨勢如何？

Yes. Of course, that's the $100,000 question is whether or not we actually moved into a recession or not. But I think broadly, from a macro perspective, some of the things that we're seeing is that some of the excess savings that consumers have held in the past has come down to really pre-pandemic levels at this particular point in time. So I think that manifests itself in kind of a normalization of consumer spend. So we are seeing what was very strong consumer spend starting to normalize and soften, if you will.

是的。當然，這 10 萬美元的問題是我們是否真的陷入了衰退。但我認為，從宏觀角度來看，我們看到的一些情況是，消費者過去持有的一些超額儲蓄在這個特定時間點已經下降到了大流行前的水平。所以我認為這體現在消費者支出的正常化上。因此，如果你願意的話，我們看到非常強勁的消費者支出開始正常化和疲軟。

I mean yesterday was retail sales information that came out a little bit softer than maybe expected. We're seeing some of those same dynamics in the payments business where sales, for example, in the merchant side of the equation, slower, softer sort of retail sales. But there's still a fair amount of travel expenditure that's taking place. So customers are certainly choosing and maybe being a little more choosy as to where they're spending their dollars.

我的意思是，昨天公佈的零售銷售數據比預期的要軟一些。我們在支付業務中看到了一些相同的動態，例如，在商家方面，零售銷售速度較慢、較疲軟。但仍有相當數量的旅行支出正在發生。因此，客戶肯定會選擇，而且對於花錢的地方可能會更加挑剔。

Some of the dynamics that we're seeing is while sales have softened maybe a bit, the margins in some of the businesses have actually improved. So on the credit card side of the equation where sales have come down a little bit, the margins are actually a little stronger. On the corporate payment side of the equation, margins continue to get stronger because T&E spend at the corporate -- in the commercial corporate sectors is continuing to be reasonably strong.

我們看到的一些動態是，雖然銷售可能略有疲軟，但某些業務的利潤率實際上有所提高。因此，在信用卡方面，銷售額略有下降，但利潤實際上更高一些。在企業支付方面，利潤率繼續走強，因為商業企業領域的企業差旅與娛樂支出繼續相當強勁。

So we continue to kind of look out the rest of the year on the merchant acquiring side of the equation of revenue kind of in that high single digits sort of range; on the credit card fee revenue, still in that mid-single digits. And on the corporate payment side of the equation, it will normalize, but it will kind of normalize in that high single digits range. That's kind of what we're seeing, what we're kind of forecasting at this particular point in time based upon consumer behavior.

因此，我們將繼續關註今年剩餘時間的收入等式中商家收單方面的情況，在較高的個位數範圍內；信用卡手續費收入仍處於中個位數。在企業支付方面，它會正常化，但會在高個位數範圍內正常化。這就是我們所看到的，我們在這個特定時間點根據消費者行為進行的預測。

Got it. And one follow-up on capital. Can you just give us, just so we all have the right number from your perspective, where CET1 was this quarter inclusive of AFS unrealized losses and also just your view if rates stay the same here, what that pull to par looks like as you look forward to that year-end '24 point?

知道了。還有關於資本的後續行動。您能否告訴我們，以便我們從您的角度來看正確的數字，本季度的 CET1 包括 AFS 未實現的損失，以及您的看法，如果這裡的利率保持不變，那麼拉到標準值會是什麼樣子？到年底 24 點嗎？

Yes. So if you were to embed the AOCI into the CET1 calculation under Category II, it'd have been at 6.9%. And we expect that based upon all of our capital actions, to get to our kind of our target levels by the end of 2024. We have the game plan in order to be able to get there. So we feel confident about that.

是的。因此，如果您將 AOCI 嵌入到 II 類下的 CET1 計算中，那麼它會是 6.9%。我們預計，基於我們所有的資本行動，到 2024 年底達到我們的目標水平。我們制定了實現這一目標的計劃。所以我們對此充滿信心。

Okay. Do you just have the AFS piece of what does pull to par by the end of the year? Because it's hard for us to understand how much the risk-weighted asset part might be, but at least we can kind of track to your view of the portfolio maturity.

好的。您是否掌握了 AFS 部分，能夠在年底前達到標準水平？因為我們很難了解風險加權資產部分可能有多少，但至少我們可以跟踪您對投資組合成熟度的看法。

Yes. Do you have that, John?

是的。約翰，你有嗎？

Yes. So in terms of the burn down between here and the end of '24, it's about 25% or so.

是的。因此，就目前到 24 年底的燒毀率而言，約為 25% 左右。

Next, we can go to Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們可以請瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian) 採訪。

I need to ask the capital question again just because it's been such a big deal for your stock. And I'm wondering if you could indulge me in some sort of cave woman's math here. So 6.9% CET1, you have 6 quarters to generate capital. Based on what you're earning today, you could add another 120 basis points, right, for 6 quarters x20, and that will get you to 8%. So given that you've mentioned, both Terry and John throughout the call, some additional RWA actions, how much can RWA actions enhance that potential for 8% fully loaded CET1 by 4Q '24, just on earnings? How much can you add from RWA mitigation?

我需要再次問資本問題，因為這對你的股票來說意義重大。我想知道你是否可以在這裡讓我沉迷於某種穴居女人的數學。所以 6.9% CET1，你有 6 個季度的時間來產生資本。根據您今天的收入，您可以在 6 個季度 x20 中再增加 120 個基點，對吧，這將使您達到 8%。因此，考慮到特里和約翰在整個電話會議中都提到了一些額外的 RWA 行動，那麼僅就收益而言，RWA 行動可以在多大程度上提高到 24 年第 4 季度實現 8% 滿載 CET1 的潛力？您可以從 RWA 緩解中增加多少？

Yes. So maybe just kind of unpack it a little bit. We still expect, Erika, that our -- the benefit from capital accretion or earnings accretion is going to be somewhere in that 20 to 25 basis points on average. And a couple of different things to kind of keep in mind. While there's a little more pressure on the revenue side of the equation, things that will start to come into the equation is a lot lower merger and integration charges next year. We'll be substantially done with that as well as the fact that by the end of the year, we will really be at kind of full run rate from a cost synergy standpoint. So I think that there's a number of things just in terms of why we feel confident that, that accretion level starts to accelerate or creep up from where we're at today.

是的。所以也許只是稍微打開一下包裝。埃里卡，我們仍然預計，資本增值或收益增值帶來的好處平均將在 20 到 25 個基點之間。還有一些需要記住的不同事情。雖然收入方面的壓力更大，但明年將開始出現的合併和整合費用會大幅降低。我們將基本上完成這一任務，而且到今年年底，從成本協同的角度來看，我們將真正達到滿負荷運轉。因此，我認為有很多因素可以解釋為什麼我們有信心，這種增長水平開始加速或從今天的水平開始上升。

And then I think when you end up going through, John talked a little bit about the burn down being at about 25% between now and the end of the year and that's based upon market implied. But also keep in mind as we have said, is we have put into place some hedging strategies to protect us from the upside risk that might exist if rates were to move up. So we feel pretty good about where that is going to come in. And then the rest of it is really tied to risk-weighted asset actions, many of which I ended up talking about. And again, we have a pretty confident game plan with respect to our ability to reduce risk-weighted assets in order to be able to achieve the targets that we need to hit.

然後我想，當你最終經歷時，約翰談到了從現在到今年年底的燒毀率約為 25%，這是基於市場暗示的。但也要記住，正如我們所說，我們已經實施了一些對沖策略，以保護我們免受利率上升時可能存在的上行風險的影響。因此，我們對它的作用非常滿意。然後其餘部分確實與風險加權資產行動相關，其中許多都是我最後談到的。再說一次，我們對減少風險加權資產的能力有一個非常有信心的計劃，以便能夠實現我們需要達到的目標。

Let me -- just asking it another way again just because it feels like some of the good stuff that's going on in the company is being ignored because of this capital question regarding Category II. Based on your outlook and under a reasonable range of scenarios for the economy, do you think you could get to 8.5% to 9% fully loaded CET1 by 4Q '24?

讓我——只是再次以另一種方式問這個問題，因為感覺公司正在發生的一些好事情因為這個關於第二類的基本問題而被忽視了。根據您的展望以及在合理的經濟情景下，您認為到 2024 年第 4 季度您的 CET1 滿載率是否可以達到 8.5% 至 9%？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

And next, we can go to John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

接下來，我們可以請約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald）進行自主研究。

Yes, just one last follow-up on that walk, starting from the 6.9% getting to 8.5% to 9%. So is that the idea that the AOCI is kind of like a 200, 210 basis point drag today and that will shrink to, in your number, something like 150 or that kind of drag by the end of next year?

是的，這只是這次步行的最後一次跟進，從 6.9% 上升到 8.5% 到 9%。那麼，今天的 AOCI 有點像 200、210 個基點的拖累，到明年年底，按照你的數字，會縮減到 150 或類似的拖累，這是不是這樣的想法？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And does your walk include like FDIC assessment and CECL phase and things like that?

好的。您的步行是否包括 FDIC 評估和 CECL 階段之類的內容？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. The next question was just on credit. How do you see charge-off trajectory from here? I know you've said normalized 50, you won't get there for a while. But the jumping off point is 35 basis points, I guess, this quarter. How do you see it kind of playing out from here?

好的。下一個問題就是關於信用的。您如何看待這裡的沖銷軌跡？我知道你說過標準化 50，你暫時不會到達那裡。但我猜，本季度的起點是 35 個基點。您認為從這裡開始情況如何？

Yes. It's going to continue to normalize for all the different things we have been talking about and I think the industry has been talking about. Our expectation is that the 35 creeps up into the kind of mid-40s by maybe the end of the year or early next year, and then it kind of normalizes around 50 basis points once we get into 2024.

是的。我們一直在談論的所有不同事情都將繼續正常化，我認為整個行業一直在談論。我們的預期是，到今年年底或明年初，35 可能會升至 40 左右，然後一旦進入 2024 年，就會在 50 個基點左右正常化。

Okay, got it. And does the full year guidance on expenses for this year incorporate some achievement of merger saves in the fourth quarter of this year?

好，知道了。今年的全年支出指引是否包含了今年第四季度合併節省的一些成果？

In terms of cost synergies or...

從成本協同效應或...

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

It gets us to the run rate, John, of the full $900 million by the end of the quarter.

約翰，這讓我們得到了季度末 9 億美元的運行率。

So when we get into 2024, we will have achieved a full run rate of $900 million of cost synergies.

因此，到 2024 年，我們將實現 9 億美元的成本協同效應。

And you will have achieved most of those by the fourth quarter of this year?

到今年第四季度您將實現其中大部分目標嗎？

By the end of the fourth quarter, yes.

到第四季度末，是的。

Okay. And that's built into the guidance for the full year this year?

好的。這是否已納入今年全年的指導中？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

And we can go to Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer.

我們可以去找克里斯·科托夫斯基和奧本海默。

Yes. I think last quarter, you shared that the average duration of your securities portfolio went down from like 4.3 to 3.8 years or something like that. And I wonder if you could give us the similar trend in the second quarter and the outlook for the balance of the year and just your philosophy in general about reinvesting maturities. Is that kind of going into cash or are you kind of maintaining the duration that you have?

是的。我想上個季度，您表示您的證券投資組合的平均久期從 4.3 年下降到了 3.8 年之類的。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹第二季度的類似趨勢以及今年剩餘時間的前景，以及您關於再投資期限的總體理念。這是投入現金還是維持現有期限？

Yes. The duration that we had talked about with respect to the AFS portfolio was 3.8 years, and that has continued to come down a little bit, not measurably but down a little bit from there. Our game plan, I guess, is that we're going to continue to work on shortening the duration of the AFS portfolio. And it kind of helps us derisk that. We'll keep more in short-term sort of securities, whether it's that or cash, but it will be kind of a combination.

是的。我們談到的 AFS 投資組合的期限是 3.8 年，並且持續下降了一點，不是可測量的，而是從那裡開始下降了一點。我想，我們的計劃是繼續努力縮短 AFS 投資組合的持續時間。這在某種程度上幫助我們避免了這種風險。我們將保留更多的短期證券，無論是短期證券還是現金，但這將是一種組合。

And on the HTM portfolio, is there a similar kind of move to shortened duration or are you comfortable where it is?

在 HTM 投資組合中，是否有類似的縮短久期的舉措，或者您對此感到滿意嗎？

Yes. Well, with respect to the HTM portfolio, that's just kind of going to run down over time or burn down over time. We're not adding to the HTM portfolio at this particular point.

是的。嗯，就 HTM 投資組合而言，隨著時間的推移，它會逐漸耗盡或燒毀。目前我們不會添加 HTM 產品組合。

And we'll move to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們將與摩根大通一起搬到 Vivek Juneja。

Sorry, it's repetitive given the multiple calls. So I guess a couple of things. On merchant processing, any color on why it's up only 2% year-on-year in terms of fees? I hear you on the travel slowing, but that's -- there's also a lower fee. What's caused such a sharp slowdown? And what turns that around to the mid-single digits, Terry?

抱歉，由於多次調用，它是重複的。所以我猜有幾件事。在商戶處理方面，您能解釋一下為什麼費用同比只上漲2%嗎？我聽說你們的旅行速度放慢了，但費用也降低了。是什麼導致瞭如此急劇的放緩？是什麼讓這個數字變成了中個位數，特里？

Yes. Some of it's year-over-year comp and how it will kind of play out. But the biggest driver, Vivek, in the merchant processing at this particular point is the fact that the travel airline specifically is continuing to become a higher portion of the overall mix that we think is starting to stabilize. In other words, most of -- much of that growth has been in the airline space but we think that, that kind of stabilizes. Airline happens to have a lower margin, and so that's the dynamic that you're seeing.

是的。其中一些是逐年比較以及它將如何發揮作用。但 Vivek 在這一特定時刻的商戶處理中最大的推動因素是，旅遊航空公司在整體組合中繼續佔據較高比例，我們認為這一比例正在開始穩定。換句話說，大部分增長都發生在航空領域，但我們認為這種增長已經趨於穩定。航空公司的利潤率恰好較低，所以這就是你所看到的動態。

Got it, okay. And AOCI, your loss seems to have gone up. Did you not get any benefit from the hedges you have put on or is there something else going on underneath?

明白了，好吧。還有AOCI，你的損失似乎增加了。難道你沒有從你設置的樹籬中得到任何好處，或者下面還有其他事情發生嗎？

Yes. Go ahead, John.

是的。繼續吧，約翰。

I think the investment portfolio is AOCI went -- declined or the market declined by about $250 million linked quarter, but rates went up 50 to 60 basis points upon the points of the curve that matter to the portfolio. So it's not totally -- as we talked about, there's a duration to that book. And so you would expect a wider mark, given the higher level of rates. So I think with the hedges that we have put in place, that helped mute that. It could have been higher, and we continue to add hedges across that portfolio and pick our spots when we see rates fall.

我認為投資組合是 AOCI 下跌或市場下跌約 2.5 億美元，與季度相關，但利率在對投資組合重要的曲線點上上漲了 50 至 60 個基點。所以這並不完全——正如我們所說，那本書有一個持續時間。因此，考慮到較高的利率水平，您會期望獲得更廣泛的分數。所以我認為，通過我們設置的對沖措施，這有助於消除這種影響。它本來可以更高，我們繼續在該投資組合中增加對沖，並在看到利率下降時選擇我們的位置。

And we'll go to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將與加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 會面。

Terry, you've talked a bit about the normalization in net charge-offs moving into 2024. Can you share with us what kind of assumptions you're using to get to that normalization rate in charge-offs, both economic and just the way the customer base may behave?

Terry，您已經談到了 2024 年淨沖銷正常化問題。您能否與我們分享一下您使用什麼樣的假設來獲得沖銷正常化率，無論是經濟方面還是方法方面客戶群可能表現如何？

Do you want to talk about that?

你想談談這個嗎？

Yes. From an economic standpoint, Gerard, I'll start. This is Andy. We think there's probably a fairly equal weight probability that we'll either see a soft landing or a mild recession. And if we do get a recession, our models would indicate it would be short and shallow, either late this year or early in 2024. You know there's still pricing pressure and the inflation is not soft. So we have one more rate hike by the end of the year modeled in.

是的。杰拉德，我從經濟角度開始。這是安迪。我們認為，我們會看到軟著陸或溫和衰退的概率相當相等。如果我們確實陷入衰退，我們的模型將表明衰退將是短暫而淺的，要么在今年年底，要么在 2024 年初。你知道，價格壓力仍然存在，而且通脹並不疲軟。因此，我們預計年底前將再次加息。

And then -- but on the other hand, as Terry mentioned, excess savings has come down significantly and consumer spending is slowing, so the Fed is getting its desired outcome. So big picture, we think the Fed is close to being done. And as I said, sort of this probability of either shallow and soft -- or mild-ish recession and/or soft landing is what we've modeled in to get to those assumptions Terry's articulated.

然後，但另一方面，正如特里提到的，過剩儲蓄已大幅下降，消費者支出正在放緩，因此美聯儲正在達到預期的結果。從大局來看，我們認為美聯儲即將完成任務。正如我所說，這種淺度軟衰退或溫和衰退和/或軟著陸的可能性正是我們所建模的，以實現特里所闡述的假設。

A couple of things I would just add maybe from a portfolio dynamic perspective. We're seeing nice growth in terms of credit card balances. And as credit card balances both increase and it normalizes, you'll start to see that ratio going up because that's a little higher mix for us. And then I think it may be somewhat lumpy, but it's kind of incorporated into it is just continuing to work through commercial real estate office space over the course of the next few years.

我想從投資組合動態的角度補充一些內容。我們看到信用卡餘額出現了良好的增長。隨著信用卡餘額的增加和正常化，您將開始看到該比率上升，因為這對我們來說是一個更高的組合。然後我認為它可能有點不穩定，但它有點融入其中，只是在接下來的幾年裡繼續通過商業房地產辦公空間開展工作。

Very good. And then I apologize if you addressed this question, but with the expectation of the Basel III Endgame capital requirements coming shortly, and this week, the disclosures that it seems like residential mortgages may be exposed to higher risk-weighted assets, how are you guys thinking about that in terms of risk of RWA strategies if mortgages do get a bigger weight and other areas are greater than expected?

非常好。如果您回答了這個問題，我深表歉意，但是隨著巴塞爾協議 III 終局資本要求即將到來的預期，以及本週，住房抵押貸款似乎可能面臨更高風險加權資產的披露，你們好嗎？考慮一下，如果抵押貸款確實獲得更大的權重並且其他領域的權重大於預期，那麼 RWA 策略的風險是什麼？

Yes. Well, certainly, a lot of our actions, for example, with respect to mortgages in that particular business is just continuing to derisk, so to speak. So we're kind of trying to take that into consideration. Our expectation right now, Gerard, is that it's probably going to be fairly neutral to maybe just a little bit of a benefit based upon everything that we're seeing in terms of the Endgame. But we really have to wait and see what the final rules say and then apply it to our specific portfolio.

是的。嗯，當然，可以這麼說，我們的許多行動，例如，針對特定業務的抵押貸款，只是繼續降低風險。所以我們正在嘗試考慮這一點。杰拉德，我們現在的期望是，根據我們在殘局中看到的一切，它可能會相當中立，甚至可能只是一點點好處。但我們確實必須等待，看看最終規則的內容，然後將其應用到我們的具體投資組合中。

And next, we can go to Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們可以請摩根士丹利的貝特西·格拉塞克 (Betsy Graseck) 採訪。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups. One, the asset sales that you did this quarter, was that at the beginning of the quarter or at the end? I'm just trying to understand how much like revenue from that portfolio you have in 2Q?

只需幾個快速跟進。一，您本季度進行的資產出售，是在季初還是季末？我只是想了解第二季度該投資組合的收入有多少？

Yes. Most of them were completed at the end of the -- closer to the end of the second quarter, so in the June time frame.

是的。其中大部分是在接近第二季度末的時候完成的，所以是在六月的時間範圍內。

Okay. And then the revenue outlook for the full year, is that based on June 30 balance sheet or is that also including the RWA actions you're planning on taking between now and year-end?

好的。然後，全年收入前景是基於 6 月 30 日的資產負債表，還是還包括您計劃從現在到年底採取的 RWA 行動？

Both. It incorporates our capital actions in terms of what we expect to execute on between now and the end of the year.

兩個都。它包含了我們預計從現在到年底執行的資本行動。

Next, we can move to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們請來富國銀行證券公司的邁克·梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Well, on the capital issue, I asked last quarter, do you think there's any chance that you need to raise capital or cut the dividend? I'll just ask it again. I mean people are doing these mechanistic analyses where they would take the unrealized securities losses, reduce that from tangible equity, give you no credit and then say you would need to raise capital.

那麼，關於資本問題，我上個季度問過，您認為您是否有可能需要籌集資本或削減股息？我就再問一下吧。我的意思是，人們正在進行這些機械分析，他們會採取未實現的證券損失，從有形股權中減少損失，不給你任何信貸，然後說你需要籌集資金。

So now that you've made your year-end capital target, I guess, would you reiterate -- or to what degree would you reiterate no capital increase, no dividend cut? And in addition, if you could put it in a broader context, the Vice Chair of the Fed bar last week said that actually the economic value of equity of banks goes up because of higher value of deposits. So it seems like he signed on to a lot of the analysis that we analysts do. So just if you could comment on the bigger picture about your capital and the flexibility there.

那麼，既然你已經制定了年終資本目標，我想你會重申——或者你會在多大程度上重申不增加資本、不削減股息？此外，如果你能把它放在更廣泛的背景下，美聯儲副主席上週表示，實際上銀行股本的經濟價值由於存款價值的增加而上升。所以看來他同意了我們分析師所做的很多分析。所以，如果您能對您的資本和靈活性的整體情況發表評論。

Yes, Mike, this is Andy. And as Terry mentioned, so we accelerated our RWA actions got to 9.1% at the end of the second quarter, well ahead of our 9.0% by the end of the year. We expect to be at least 9.5% by the end of the year, if not better. And we have a game plan. We're comfortable with and confident enough to get to 9% under the Basel -- under the Cat II definition by the end of 2024. So all those things make us confident in the capital walk that we talked about and the actions we're taking.

是的，邁克，這是安迪。正如特里提到的，我們加快了 RWA 行動，在第二季度末達到了 9.1%，遠遠超過了年底的 9.0%。我們預計到今年年底至少會達到 9.5%，甚至更好。我們有一個遊戲計劃。我們對在 2024 年底之前達到巴塞爾協議（根據 Cat II 定義）的 9% 感到滿意並有足夠的信心。因此，所有這些事情使我們對我們談論的資本步行和我們正在採取的行動充滿信心服用。

And then on the negative side, you and a lot of regional banks have continued to lower guidance on NII, and here we go again with that. And look, I mean, rates are -- went up faster than you or anyone had expected. The yield curve is a lot more inverted. I guess competition has picked up more than expected. What inning do you think you're in, in terms of this downward revision for NII? Do you think you're kind of there now?

從消極方面來看，你們和許多地區銀行繼續降低 NII 的指導，我們再次這樣做。我的意思是，你看，利率的上升速度比你或任何人預期的都要快。收益率曲線更加倒掛。我認為競爭的加劇程度超出了預期。就 NII 的向下修正而言，您認為自己處於哪一局？你認為你現在就在那裡嗎？

You said third quarter could be down a little bit. And as you exit the year, do you think you maintained that third quarter level? Or I think you said NIM would be flat after that, but I'm not sure if you mentioned NII. So is a downward revision for NII done or eighth inning, seventh inning? And what does that mean for kind of run rate going to next year?

您說第三季度可能會略有下降。當你結束這一年時，你認為你保持了第三季度的水平嗎？或者我認為您說過 NIM 之後會持平，但我不確定您是否提到了 NII。那麼NII的向下修正是完成還是第八局、第七局？這對於明年的運行率意味著什麼？

Yes. So again, we -- obviously, you heard the guidance with respect to NII and NIM. We expect it to be a few basis points down in the third quarter and then relatively stable from there. Obviously, this is rate -- it's Fed policy kind of dependent, so we're trying to look at what the current environment looks like. But we feel like if I had to kind of put what inning are we in, I think we're in the late innings simply because of where the Fed is from a monetary policy standpoint. So while there may continue to be a little bit of downward pressure, we don't see it as being significant from here. Andy, what would you add?

是的。顯然，您也聽到了有關 NII 和 NIM 的指導。我們預計第三季度會下降幾個基點，然後相對穩定。顯然，這是利率——它在某種程度上取決於美聯儲的政策，所以我們試圖看看當前的環境是什麼樣的。但我們覺得，如果我必須說出我們現在處於哪一局，我認為我們處於最後幾局只是因為美聯儲從貨幣政策的角度來看。因此，雖然可能繼續存在一些下行壓力，但我們認為從目前來看，這種壓力並不顯著。安迪，你要補充什麼？

Mike, the other thing I'd add is I think one of the benefits of our business model is the diversity of revenue. So even in a stressed environment on deposits, which you're absolutely right about, we have the payments revenue, the trust revenue, the commercial products revenue. And on top of all that, $900 million of cost synergies that we're going to act on. So we're pulling a lot of levers not just on margin.

邁克，我要補充的另一件事是，我認為我們商業模式的好處之一是收入的多樣性。因此，即使在存款緊張的環境下（您的說法絕對正確），我們也有支付收入、信託收入和商業產品收入。最重要的是，我們將採取行動實現 9 億美元的成本協同效應。因此，我們不僅在保證金方面發揮了很多作用。

And next, we have a follow-up from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

接下來，我們有來自自治研究公司的約翰·麥克唐納的後續報導。

Terry, one more on the mitigation and optimization opportunity. Originally, you had talked about 50 basis points of opportunity to harness this year. Obviously, you got 40 this quarter. And now it sounds like the total is more. I'm just trying to -- is there a way to size how much more you might see out there between the remainder of this year and next year relative to the original 50 you were targeting?

Terry，再談一談緩解和優化機會。最初，您談到了今年可以利用的 50 個基點的機會。顯然，本季度您獲得了 40 分。現在聽起來總數更多了。我只是想——有沒有一種方法可以估算出今年剩餘時間和明年之間您可能會看到的內容相對於您最初的 50 個目標有多少？

Yes. Again, the 50 that we were targeting, we knew we had a high level of confidence in terms of being able to achieve it because they were low to kind of neutral impact. And there were things that we could kind of execute on. We definitely believe that as we get into 2024, the standing up, which obviously takes a little longer, standing up of securitization programs and many of the actions that I talked about earlier gets us to where we need to be from a capital perspective when you take into consideration the burn down, et cetera. So that opportunity, I think, is certainly -- probably in line with another 50 basis points would be my guess.

是的。同樣，我們的目標是 50 個，我們知道我們對實現這一目標有很高的信心，因為它們的影響很低，甚至是中性。有些事情我們可以執行。我們絕對相信，當我們進入 2024 年時，證券化計劃的站穩腳跟（這顯然需要更長的時間）以及我之前談到的許多行動將使我們從資本的角度達到我們需要達到的目標，當你考慮燒毀等。因此，我認為，這個機會肯定是——我的猜測可能與另外 50 個基點一致。

Okay. And when you say no impact or low impact, we did see some this quarter, like in terms of the charge-offs and taxes. I guess they're not run rate. Is that what you mean like you could have episodic one quarter net impacts?

好的。當你說沒有影響或影響很小時，我們本季度確實看到了一些影響，例如沖銷和稅收方面。我猜他們不是運行率。這就是您的意思嗎，您可能會產生間歇性的四分之一淨影響？

Yes, absolutely. We'll continue to see that as we reposition the balance sheet. But again, those impacts are all taken into consideration when we think about the net RWA impacts.

是的，一點沒錯。當我們重新定位資產負債表時，我們將繼續看到這一點。但同樣，當我們考慮淨 RWA 影響時，這些影響都被考慮在內。

Okay. And again, your target that you want to get to for the fully loaded by the end of next year is what, when you...

好的。再說一次，你想要在明年年底滿載時達到的目標是，當你......

Yes. Well, it will be fully adopted. It would be roughly 8.5%, 9%.

是的。嗯，它將被完全採用。大概是8.5%、9%。

And we have no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to George Andersen. Please continue.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。現在我將把它轉回給喬治·安徒生。請繼續。

Thank you for listening to our earnings call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

感謝您收聽我們的財報電話會議。如有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係部門。

And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。