美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the US Bancorp third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 AM Central Time. I will now turn the conference over to George Andersen, Director of Investor Relations for US Bancorp.

    歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)本次通話將被錄音,並於今天中部時間上午 11:00 左右開始重播。現在我將會議交給美國合眾銀行投資者關係總監喬治安德森。

  • George Andersen - Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

    George Andersen - Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, John-Louis, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today in Minneapolis is our Chief Executive Officer, Gunjan Kedia; and Vice Chair and CFO, Jon Stern. In a moment, Gunjan and John will reference a slide presentation together with their prepared remarks. A copy of the presentation, our press release, and all supplemental consolidated schedules are available on our website at ir.usbank.com.

    謝謝你,約翰路易斯,大家早安。今天與我一起在明尼阿波利斯的還有我們的執行長 Gunjan Kedia 和副董事長兼財務長 Jon Stern。稍後,Gunjan 和 John 將參考幻燈片演示並發表他們準備好的發言。簡報、我們的新聞稿以及所有補充合併時間表的副本均可在我們的網站 ir.usbank.com 上找到。

  • Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause our actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. These factors are described on page 2 of today's earnings presentation, in our press release, and in reports filed with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Gunjan and John will be happy to answer your questions.

    請注意,今天電話會議中做出的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。這些因素在今天的收益報告第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中進行了描述。在我們準備好發言之後,Gunjan 和 John 將很樂意回答您的問題。

  • I will now turn the call over to Gunjan.

    現在我會把電話轉給 Gunjan。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. If I could please turn your attention to slide 3. In the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.22, an increase of 18.4% year-over-year. Our net revenue of $7.3 billion was a quarterly record, reflecting both strong momentum across our fee businesses and improved spread income.

    謝謝你,喬治,大家早安。請大家注意看投影片 3。第三季度,我們報告每股收益為 1.22 美元,年增 18.4%。我們的淨收入達到 73 億美元,創下了季度新高,反映了我們費用業務的強勁發展勢頭和利差收入的提高。

  • This quarter, we generated a very meaningful 530 basis points of positive operating leverage, a return on average assets of 1.17%, and a net interest margin of 2.75%. John will provide more details on our financial performance in his opening remarks.

    本季度,我們實現了非常有意義的530個基點的正營業槓桿、1.17%的平均資產回報率和2.75%的淨利差。約翰將在開幕詞中提供有關我們財務業績的更多細節。

  • Importantly, we are making strong progress against each of our three strategic priorities for our company. We are generating organic growth through distinctive interconnected solutions. We are maintaining our expense discipline through sustainable process automation.

    重要的是,我們在公司三大策略重點方面都取得了重大進展。我們透過獨特的互聯解決方案實現有機成長。我們透過可持續的流程自動化來維持我們的費用紀律。

  • And we are executing on our payments transformation with greater focus and strategic investments. And as we manage the bank for the long run, through both positive and uncertain times, our highly diversified balance sheet and foundational risk management capabilities delivered improved credit quality and stronger capital and liquidity levels this quarter.

    我們正在更加集中精力並進行策略性投資,推進支付轉型。在我們長期管理銀行的過程中,無論是在積極時期還是不確定時期,我們高度多樣化的資產負債表和基礎風險管理能力都在本季度提高了信貸品質並增強了資本和流動性水平。

  • Moving to slide 4. Fee income diversification is a key source of strength for the company. On the left, you will see that fee revenue grew at 9.5% on a year-over-year basis, reflecting broad-based strength across our Payments, Institutional, and Consumer businesses. Notably, interest rate movements this quarter supported a meaningful acceleration in select capital markets and mortgage revenue.

    移至幻燈片 4。費用收入多樣化是公司實力的重要來源。在左側,您會看到費用收入年增 9.5%,反映了我們的支付、機構和消費者業務的廣泛優勢。值得注意的是,本季的利率變動支持了部分資本市場和抵押貸款收入的顯著加速。

  • On the right, we highlight five key businesses that have demonstrated strong year-over-year growth and that we believe present a favorable growth outlook. Collectively, these businesses represented approximately two-thirds of our total fee revenue this quarter.

    右側我們重點介紹了五家表現出強勁同比增長且我們認為具有良好增長前景的關鍵企業。總的來說,這些業務約占我們本季總費用收入的三分之二。

  • Turning to slide 5. We spotlight one additional business, Impact Finance. With the Union Bank acquisition, we bolstered our platform, bringing improved tax credit syndication capabilities, new talent, and increased access to the California market. Currently reported within the other revenue, Impact Finance has grown at a 17% CAGR from 2021 to 2024, and is an important mission-driven capability that is core to our fee income portfolio.

    翻到幻燈片 5。我們專注於另一家企業,即 Impact Finance。透過收購聯合銀行,我們增強了我們的平台,帶來了改進的稅收抵免聯合能力、新的人才以及更多的加州市場准入機會。目前,影響力融資已計入其他收入,從 2021 年到 2024 年,其複合年增長率為 17%,並且是我們費用收入組合的核心,是一項重要的使命驅動能力。

  • Over the next several years, we anticipate additional growth from a pull forward of activity tied to some recent executive orders and expect revenue trends across our environmental finance, affordable housing, and community finance solutions to remain robust. In addition, the business also supports a net tax benefit to the company, which we believe will continue to be a meaningful driver of bottom-line EPS growth.

    在接下來的幾年裡,我們預計,由於最近的一些行政命令帶來的活動提前,我們的環境金融、經濟適用房和社區金融解決方案的收入趨勢將保持強勁。此外,該業務還為公司帶來淨稅收優惠,我們相信這將繼續成為每股收益成長的重要驅動力。

  • Slide 6 showcases a growing consumer franchise and long-term deposit strategy. Our deposit base is highly diversified across clients, geographies, and products providing strength and stability through the cycle. We are actively working to increase our share of consumer deposits with interconnected products like bank smartly, branch and client center expansions, partnerships, and enhanced marketing and analytical capabilities. Consumer deposits now represent over 52% of total average deposits, up nearly 2 points from the third quarter of 2023.

    投影片 6 展示了不斷增長的消費者特許經營權和長期存款策略。我們的存款基礎在客戶、地理和產品方面高度多樣化,在整個週期中提供實力和穩定性。我們正在積極努力透過銀行智慧等連網產品、分行和客戶中心擴展、合作夥伴關係以及增強的行銷和分析能力來增加我們的消費者存款份額。消費者存款目前占平均存款總額的 52% 以上,比 2023 年第三季上升了近 2 個百分點。

  • Moving to slide 7. Our expense discipline over the last two years and execution on four signature productivity programs has resulted in improved organic growth and greater operational efficiencies. As you can see on the left, the outcomes of our efforts have been quite successful as we have seen steady improvement to both the efficiency ratio and positive operating leverage as adjusted.

    移至幻燈片 7。我們在過去兩年中嚴格控制開支並實施了四項標誌性生產力計劃,從而提高了有機成長和營運效率。正如您在左側看到的,我們的努力取得了相當大的成功,因為我們看到效率比率和調整後的正營運槓桿都在穩步提高。

  • Turning to slide 8. Our Payments transformation remains a key strategic priority for our company. As the charts on the left show, we have seen steady improvement and more consistent year-over-year fee growth over the last several quarters across both our traditional card issuing and merchant processing businesses. We are looking forward to providing a deeper dive into our payments transformation and strategy at an upcoming industry conference in the fall.

    翻到幻燈片 8。我們的支付轉型仍然是我們公司的重要策略重點。如左側圖表所示,過去幾個季度,我們的傳統發卡業務和商家處理業務均實現了穩步改善,費用同比增長也更加穩定。我們期待在秋季即將召開的產業會議上更深入地探討我們的支付轉型和策略。

  • Let me now turn the call over to John.

    現在讓我把電話轉給約翰。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Gunjan, and good morning, everyone. This is a very strong quarter for us, highlighted by core underlying business momentum and accelerating growth as we made meaningful progress toward our medium-term financial targets.

    謝謝你,Gunjan,大家早安。對我們來說,這是一個非常強勁的季度,核心基礎業務勢頭強勁,成長加速,我們在實現中期財務目標方面取得了重大進展。

  • If you turn to slide 9, I'll start with highlights for the quarter, followed by a discussion of third-quarter earnings trends. As Gunjan mentioned, we reported earnings per common share of $1.22 and achieved record net revenue of $7.3 billion this quarter. Revenue growth versus prior periods benefited from improved spread income driven by enhancements we've made to our portfolio mix as well as broad-based fee growth as we deepen client relationships across the franchise.

    如果您翻到投影片 9,我將首先介紹本季的亮點,然後討論第三季的獲利趨勢。正如 Gunjan 所提到的,我們報告本季每股普通股收益為 1.22 美元,淨收入達到創紀錄的 73 億美元。與前期相比,收入成長得益於利差收入的提高,這得益於我們對投資組合的改進,以及隨著我們加深與整個特許經營客戶的關係而實現的廣泛費用增長。

  • Elevated deposit flows at the end of the quarter in support of more robust client activity and seasonality in our Corporate Trust business, resulted in ending assets of $695 billion. As expected, nearly all key credit quality metrics, including nonperforming assets and net charge-offs improved both sequentially and on a year-over-year basis. As of September 30, our tangible book value per share increased 12.7% on a year-over-year basis.

    由於客戶活動更加活躍以及公司信託業務的季節性影響,本季末存款流量增加,導致期末資產達到 6,950 億美元。正如預期的那樣,幾乎所有關鍵信貸品質指標(包括不良資產和淨沖銷額)均比上一季和上年同期有所改善。截至 9 月 30 日,我們的每股有形帳面價值年增 12.7%。

  • Slide 10 provides key performance metrics. As the slide illustrates, each of our key profitability and efficiency ratios improved this quarter, highlighted by a return on average assets of 1.17% and a return on tangible common equity of 18.6%. Over the last two years, we have increased our tangible common equity approximately 30% while continuing to deliver a high-teens ROTCE on steadily improving earnings growth.

    投影片 10 提供了關鍵績效指標。如投影片所示,本季度我們各項關鍵獲利能力和效率比率均有所提高,其中平均資產回報率為 1.17%,有形普通股權益回報率為 18.6%。在過去兩年中,我們的有形普通股權益增加了約 30%,同時繼續在穩步提高獲利成長的同時實現高水準的 ROTCE。

  • Notably, we also delivered an improved efficiency ratio of 57.2% and a net interest margin of 2.75% this quarter. Our sequential margin expansion of 9 basis points was driven by fixed asset repricing, strong card and commercial loan growth, as well as strategic balance sheet actions we took in the second quarter. We continue to expect net interest margin expansion in the medium term.

    值得注意的是,本季我們的效率比率也提高了 57.2%,淨利差達到了 2.75%。我們的利潤率連續擴大 9 個基點,這得益於固定資產重新定價、信用卡和商業貸款的強勁增長,以及我們在第二季度採取的策略資產負債表行動。我們繼續預期中期內淨利差將會擴大。

  • Slide 11 provides a balance sheet summary. Total average deposits increased 1.8% linked quarter to $512 billion, as we continued to emphasize growth in relationship-based deposits. Our percentage of noninterest-bearing to total deposits remained stable at approximately 16%.

    投影片 11 提供了資產負債表摘要。由於我們繼續強調基於關係的存款的成長,平均存款總額環比增長 1.8%,達到 5,120 億美元。我們的無利息存款佔總存款的比例維持穩定在 16% 左右。

  • Average loans totaled $379 billion, up 0.2% from the prior quarter. Adjusting for loan sales last quarter, our underlying growth rate was 1.0% linked quarter and 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Loan yields increased to 5.97%, an 8-basis-point improvement linked quarter. As we continue to strategically remix our balance sheet with a greater proportion of commercial and credit card loan balances, we increased both commercial and credit card loans 9.5% and 4.3%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

    平均貸款總額為 3,790 億美元,比上一季成長 0.2%。根據上個季度的貸款銷售額進行調整後,我們的基本成長率為季增 1.0%,年增 2.8%。貸款殖利率上升至5.97%,季增8個基點。隨著我們繼續策略性地調整資產負債表,增加商業貸款和信用卡貸款餘額的比例,我們的商業貸款和信用卡貸款分別年增 9.5% 和 4.3%。

  • Given the current industry focus on nondepository financial institution lending, we included a slide in the appendix of our presentation to provide additional transparency on this loan category. As you will observe, this is a highly diversified portfolio with a balanced and broad composition of borrowers that is underpinned by our proven underwriting capabilities and strong collateral and structural protections.

    鑑於當前行業重點關注非存款金融機構貸款,我們在簡報的附錄中加入了一張投影片,以提供更多有關此貸款類別的透明度。正如您所看到的,這是一個高度多樣化的投資組合,借款人構成均衡且廣泛,並以我們經過驗證的承保能力和強大的抵押品和結構保護為基礎。

  • Finally, as it relates to the balance sheet, the ending balance in our investment portfolio as of September 30 was $171 billion and had an average yield of 3.26%, an 8-basis-point improvement sequentially, driven by the strategic actions we took last quarter and fixed asset repricing.

    最後,就資產負債表而言,截至 9 月 30 日,我們的投資組合的期末餘額為 1,710 億美元,平均殖利率為 3.26%,比上一季提高了 8 個基點,這得益於我們上個季度採取的策略行動和固定資產重新定價。

  • Turning to slide 12. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $4.25 billion, an increase of 4.2% on a linked-quarter basis. Slide 13 highlights trends in noninterest income. Total noninterest income was approximately $3.08 billion. Excluding security losses, total fee revenue increased 9.5% on a year-over-year basis, driven by new business momentum and broad-based growth across our fee businesses.

    翻到第 12 張投影片。以完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入總計 42.5 億美元,季增 4.2%。幻燈片 13 重點介紹了非利息收入的趨勢。非利息總收入約 30.8 億美元。除證券損失外,總費用收入年增 9.5%,這得益於新業務動能和費用業務的全面成長。

  • Turning to slide 14. Noninterest expense totaled approximately $4.2 billion as we continue to prudently manage our expense base.

    翻到第 14 張投影片。由於我們繼續審慎管理我們的支出基礎,非利息支出總計約為 42 億美元。

  • Slide 15 highlights our improving credit quality performance despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Our ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.43% at September 30, an improvement of 1 basis point linked quarter and 6 basis points year-over-year. This quarter, our net charge-off ratio of 0.56% improved 3 basis points sequentially and 4 basis points year-over-year.

    投影片 15 突顯了儘管宏觀經濟仍存在不確定性,但我們的信貸品質表現仍在不斷提高。截至 9 月 30 日,我們的不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為 0.43%,較上季改善 1 個基點,較去年同期改善 6 個基點。本季度,我們的淨沖銷率為 0.56%,季增 3 個基點,年增 4 個基點。

  • Turning to slide 16. As of September 30, our common equity Tier 1 capital as a percentage of risk-weighted assets was 10.9%, a 20-basis-point increase linked quarter. Including AOCI, our CET1 ratio improved to 9.2%.

    翻到第 16 張投影片。截至 9 月 30 日,我們的普通股一級資本佔風險加權資產的百分比為 10.9%,季增 20 個基點。包括 AOCI 在內,我們的 CET1 比率提高至 9.2%。

  • At the top of slide 17, we provide a comparison of third-quarter results to our previous guidance. This quarter, both net interest income and fee revenues exceeded our expectations, while noninterest expense was in line with previous guidance, which drove meaningful positive operating leverage for the quarter.

    在第 17 張投影片的頂部,我們提供了第三季業績與先前預測的比較。本季度,淨利息收入和費用收入均超出我們的預期,而非利息支出符合先前的預期,這為本季帶來了有意義的正經營槓桿。

  • Let me now provide our forward-looking guidance. In the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis to be relatively stable to our third quarter level of $4.25 billion. Total fee revenue is expected to be approximately $3 billion. Total noninterest expense is expected to increase between 1% and 1.5% sequentially. We expect to deliver positive operating leverage of 200 basis points or more on an adjusted basis.

    現在讓我提供我們的前瞻性指導。第四季度,我們預計以完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入將與第三季的 42.5 億美元水準保持相對穩定。預計總費用收入約 30 億美元。預計非利息支出總額將較上季增加 1% 至 1.5%。我們預計調整後的營運槓桿將達到 200 個基點或更高。

  • Turning to slide 18. We are now operating within all of our medium-term target ranges, one year removed from our 2024 Investor Day and remain confident in our ability to build on these results over time.

    翻到第 18 張投影片。距離 2024 年投資者日已過去一年,我們目前的所有營運均在中期目標範圍內,並且我們仍然對我們有能力隨著時間的推移鞏固這些成果充滿信心。

  • Let me now hand it back to Gunjan for closing remarks.

    現在,請 Gunjan 致閉幕詞。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, John. Third-quarter results show that we are beginning to hit our stride on execution. We remain focused on delivering growth, productivity, returns, and strong risk management, both in favorable and uncertain economic environments.

    謝謝你,約翰。第三季的結果表明,我們的執行力開始步入正軌。無論是在有利或不確定的經濟環境中,我們始終致力於實現成長、生產力、回報和強有力的風險管理。

  • Let me just close by extending my deep gratitude to our clients and shareholders. Our results reflect the power of our strategy, the strength of our franchise, and the dedication of our teams across this organization. We appreciate your trust and your partnership.

    最後,請容許我向我們的客戶和股東表達深深的謝意。我們的業績體現了我們策略的力量、我們特許經營的實力以及整個組織團隊的奉獻精神。我們感謝您的信任與合作。

  • With that, we will now open the call for your questions.

    現在,我們將開始回答大家的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) John McDonald, Truist Securities.

    (操作員指示)Truist Securities 的 John McDonald。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • Start off with a question for John. Just on the outlook. John, what are you seeing for net interest margin trend in the fourth quarter? And can you give us some puts and takes on your outlook for net interest income to be relatively flattish in the fourth quarter?

    首先問約翰一個問題。僅就前景而言。約翰,您認為第四季淨利差趨勢如何?您能否就第四季度淨利息收入相對持平的前景給出一些看法?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Maybe stepping back just to the third quarter, we had a lot of favorable items this quarter that will continue to be sustainable. We had strong success at repricing. We had a healthy mix favorability, both on the loan side of the equation as well as on the liability side. And of course, we had the strategic actions that we talked about last quarter that ended up being favorable as well.

    當然。也許回顧一下第三季度,我們本季有很多有利的項目,這些項目將繼續保持永續性。我們在重新定價方面取得了巨大成功。無論是在貸款方面還是負債方面,我們都擁有健康的綜合優勢。當然,我們上個季度討論過的戰略行動最終也取得了有利的成果。

  • So looking forward, if I think about the fourth quarter, we talked about relative stability. And we have the favorable items still at our -- being a tailwind in terms of repricing and mix. However, we have credit card favorability this quarter that is seasonal to a certain extent, and that will reverse in some capacity.

    因此展望未來,如果我考慮第四季度,我們談論的是相對穩定。我們仍然擁有有利的項目——在重新定價和組合方面成為順風。然而,本季信用卡的受歡迎程度在一定程度上具有季節性,並且在某種程度上會逆轉。

  • And so when I think about the quarter, there's obviously some risks and there's some opportunities. I would say that we're biased to the upside, both in terms of net interest income and net interest margin from -- versus our flat guidance because I just see more opportunity than I do risk. But we'll see how the quarter plays out, but that's where we're at right now.

    因此,當我考慮本季時,顯然存在一些風險和一些機會。我想說的是,無論是淨利息收入還是淨利息收益率,我們都傾向於上漲——與我們的持平指導相比,因為我看到的機會多於風險。但我們會看看本季的表現如何,但這就是我們目前的狀況。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just following up on that, looking a little further out, what are some of the drivers you have for net interest margin expansion next year in the context of maybe a few rate cuts? And do you still think that you could get towards 3% in 2027?

    好的。然後,繼續往下看,在可能降息的背景下,您認為明年淨利差擴大的驅動因素有哪些?您還認為到 2027 年可以達到 3% 嗎?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • We definitely see a path of net interest margin expansion getting to that 3% level in 2027. The drivers are going to be the ones that we've talked about in the past. We have fixed asset repricing that is quite mechanical.

    我們確實看到淨利差在 2027 年擴張至 3% 的水平。這些驅動因素就是我們過去討論過的那些。我們的固定資產重新定價相當機械化。

  • We've talked about the $3 billion of investment portfolio and the $5 billion to $7 billion of loans that reprice. We still have mix that we have in our control in terms of leaning more into card and commercial type of loans that are helping. And so I think of those things of having somewhere in that 2 to 3 basis points of embedded lift from a net interest margin standpoint.

    我們討論了 30 億美元的投資組合和 50 億至 70 億美元的重新定價貸款。我們仍然可以控制組合,更傾向於有幫助的信用卡和商業貸款。因此,我認為從淨利差的角度來看,這些因素會帶來 2 到 3 個基點的內含提升。

  • The third component is really going to be on the deposit side and the mix and pricing of that. And that will depend a little bit -- the speed in which we gain to that 3% margin is going to depend on the curve. It depends on deposit competition, and how we execute really on DDA and checking and all those sorts of accounts that we need to grow. So we definitely see a path for 3% in 2027, but some of those macro environments might impact the speed in which we get there.

    第三個組成部分實際上是存款方面以及存款的組合和定價。這有點取決於——我們獲得 3% 利潤的速度將取決於曲線。這取決於存款競爭,以及我們如何真正執行 DDA 和支票以及我們需要成長的所有類型的帳戶。因此,我們肯定會看到 2027 年實現 3% 的成長路徑,但其中一些宏觀環境可能會影響我們實現這一目標的速度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Pancari, Evercore.

    約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari),Evercore。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • On the positive operating leverage came in particularly solid this quarter, and you're clearly confident in the 200 basis points-plus expectation to '25. Could you give us just a little more color in terms of your confidence in that front or in that pace as you look into 2026, just given some of the investments that you're looking at, but also conversely, some of the momentum you're clearly seeing on the revenue side? Could we see positive operating leverage exceed that 200 basis points-plus range as we look out?

    本季的正向經營槓桿表現特別穩健,您顯然對 2025 年 200 個基點以上的預期充滿信心。考慮到您正在考慮的一些投資,以及相反地,您在收入方面明顯看到的一些勢頭,您能否就您對此方面的信心或對 2026 年的發展速度給我們提供更多細節?從我們的角度來看,我們是否可以看到正營運槓桿超過 200 個基點以上的範圍?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • So thanks, John. In terms of our guidance, of course, we've been signaling over 200 basis points of operating leverage this year, and we've been achieving that. Obviously, we had a lot of strength this quarter. and we continue to expect that in the fourth quarter.

    所以謝謝你,約翰。當然,就我們的指導而言,我們已經發出信號,今年的營運槓桿將超過 200 個基點,而且我們已經實現了這一目標。顯然,本季我們表現強勁,我們預計第四季我們仍將保持這一勢頭。

  • As we think about '26, we haven't provided formal guidance there. We're going to -- in the middle of our planning process, of course. But I think you can see the key drivers here. You can think about net interest income having a good growth trajectory as we think about all the different items I just talked about.

    當我們考慮 26 時,我們還沒有在那裡提供正式的指導。當然,我們會在規劃過程中這樣做。但我想您可以看到這裡的關鍵驅動因素。當我們考慮我剛才談到的所有不同項目時,您可以認為淨利息收入具有良好的成長軌跡。

  • The fees, we continue to expect that mid-single-digit type of growth in our expenses we've been able to manage quite prudently. So we expect to achieve meaningful positive operating leverage next year.

    對於費用,我們預計我們的支出將出現中等個位數的成長,而且我們能夠相當謹慎地管理這些成長。因此,我們預計明年將實現有意義的正經營槓桿。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And John, I'll just add -- this is Gunjan. We are very confident in our expense management disciplines because our four signature programs have runway still to go and the revenue outlook is positive. It does depend on the fee mix.

    約翰,我還要補充一點──這是 Gunjan。我們對我們的費用管理原則非常有信心,因為我們的四個標誌性項目仍有發展空間,而且收入前景樂觀。這確實取決於費用組合。

  • As you know, we are very focused on improving our fee mix, and that tends to attract more expense, which we are very glad to do. So that's the range. But the business model lends itself to meaningful positive operating leverage for next year. It's just a matter of level.

    如您所知,我們非常注重改善我們的費用組合,這往往會吸引更多的費用,我們非常樂意這樣做。這就是範圍。但這種商業模式有助於明年實現有意義的正向經營槓桿。這只是水平問題。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then on the fee side, also some clear momentum there. Some pretty good upside this quarter. And as you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you're certainly seeing some of the momentum follow through in terms of your key drivers and in your payments space as well.

    好的。知道了。然後在費用方面,也有一些明顯的動力。本季出現了一些相當不錯的上漲。正如您在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,您肯定會看到一些勢頭在關鍵驅動因素和支付領域中持續顯現。

  • I mean, I guess on the Payment side, can you give us a little more color in terms of the drivers of the growth that you're seeing there and your confidence in that mid-single-digit expectation? And is there anything from the standpoint of customer acquisition or the benefits of the investments that you've made that you'd call out here as being key drivers to what seems to be a more sustainable consistency around your fee performance as of late?

    我的意思是,我想在支付方面,您能否給我們更多細節,說明您所看到的成長驅動因素以及您對中等個位數預期的信心?從客戶獲取或投資收益的角度來看,您是否認為有什麼因素是促使您的費用表現近期呈現更永續的一致性的關鍵因素?

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. We are feeling very confident in the broad-based strength of the fees. And let me just share two things and then I'll get to the specifics on Payments. We have made a lot of progress over the last 12 months on creating an operating model that creates interconnectivity between our product sets. So the fees are lifting each other.

    謝謝。我們對費用的廣泛強度非常有信心。讓我先分享兩件事,然後我會講到有關付款的具體細節。在過去的 12 個月裡,我們在創建一種能夠實現產品系列之間互聯互通的營運模式方面取得了巨大進展。因此費用是相互提高的。

  • Our relationship teams, our sales and marketing efforts are multiproduct. The product design is multiproduct. And all of that is leading to a measurable lift in effectiveness of marketing dollars. So that gives us some real shift in the trajectory here.

    我們的關係團隊、銷售和行銷工作都是多產品的。產品設計是多產品的。所有這些都將顯著提高行銷資金的有效性。因此,這為我們帶來了一些真正的軌跡轉變。

  • What we track internally on Payments, for example, is new card acquisitions that we can measure today that have grown nicely from past trends, and it takes 12 to 18 months of that revenue to catch up. We are also seeing material strength in sold but not installed business on businesses like CPS and merchants. So all of that leads us to have confidence in our mid-single-digit fee guidance across the whole portfolio and Payments overall, with upside over time as we gain momentum.

    例如,我們在支付方面內部追蹤的是今天可以衡量的新卡收購情況,這些情況與過去的趨勢相比已經有了良好的增長,而這些收入需要 12 到 18 個月才能趕上。我們也看到 CPS 和商家等企業的銷售但未安裝業務表現出色。因此,所有這些都讓我們對整個投資組合和整體支付業務的中等個位數費用指導充滿信心,並且隨著我們發展勢頭的增強,費用指導還會隨著時間的推移而上升。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • And that upside, that would bode well for 2026, I assume there, Gunjan, above that mid-single-digit level possibly?

    我認為,這種上升趨勢對 2026 年來說是個好兆頭,Gunjan,可能高於中位數個位數嗎?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Well, we've talked about mid-single digit in the Payment complex, and that's where our objective is with upside. So I think that's where our starting point is. We'll have more detail, obviously, as we think about that in the next call. But mid-single digit is a good place to start to the plus.

    好吧,我們已經討論了支付綜合體中的中等個位數,這就是我們的上行目標。所以我認為這就是我們的出發點。顯然,當我們在下次電話會議中考慮這個問題時,我們會提供更多細節。但中等個位數是開始上漲的一個好位置。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I do also want to just reiterate that there is a lot of curiosity around Payments. And in the fall, we're going to bring a deep dive on the merchant business and the card issuing businesses. So I look forward to more dialogue there.

    我還想重申一下,人們對支付有很多好奇心。今年秋季,我們將深入研究商家業務和發卡業務。因此我期待在那裡進行更多的對話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

    肯‧烏斯丁,自主研究。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up on the Payments point and just ask you to dive in a little bit more. 3% year-over-year is not far from mid-single digit, but that Corporate piece is still comping negative and credit and debit is still [3%-ish]. So I just want to -- if you can give us some of the moving parts of the drivers now and across the lines, where do you expect those to inflect?

    我只是想跟進一下支付方面的問題,請你再深入一點。年成長 3% 已經接近個位數的中段了,但企業部分仍然是負成長,信用卡和金融卡仍然是負成長。[3%左右]。所以我只想——如果您能給我們一些現在和將來的驅動因素的變化部分,您預計它們會在哪裡發生變化?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So your question regarding on the Corporate payment side of the house, that has seen negative year-over-year print the last couple of quarters. The drivers of that are really on the government side of the equation as well as corporate T&E.

    當然。所以您的問題是關於企業支付方面的,過去幾個季度,該方面的收入同比下降。造成這現象的真正原因在於政府方面以及企業的差旅與費用。

  • So you could think of government spend is about 15% of this line item. Corporate T&E is about the same thing. And those have had some headwinds in those particular areas. Gunjan mentioned uninstalled revenue and strong pipelines. That is certainly the case, and we expect to see some online versions of that coming on into the fourth quarter.

    因此你可以認為政府支出約佔該項目的 15%。企業差旅與費用 (T&E) 也大同小異。而這些在這些特定領域中遇到了一些阻力。Gunjan 提到了未安裝收入和強大的管道。事實確實如此,我們預計在第四季度會看到一些線上版本。

  • And so we do expect improving trends in our year-on-year outlook on Corporate payments and merchants has had some strong quarter given success in our key verticals that we've been talking about and as well as some of the embedded finance and tech type of strategies and card. As Gunjan mentioned, the marketing and account growth we see is very encouraging. So those are the items that I talk about from a payment standpoint.

    因此,我們確實預計,企業支付和商家的同比前景趨勢將有所改善,鑑於我們一直在談論的關鍵垂直領域以及一些嵌入式金融和技術類型的策略和卡的成功,商家在本季度表現強勁。正如 Gunjan 所提到的,我們看到的行銷和帳戶成長非常令人鼓舞。這些就是我從付款角度談論的內容。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I can add just a line on the debit card where the growth is really about growing your entire consumer franchise, and we are very laser-focused on that and see a lot of upside over time with interconnected products between card and the consumer bank. So as we see momentum in the -- we showed you some data on consumer deposits that was a very favorable set of trends over the last two years.

    我可以在藉記卡上添加一行,其中的增長實際上是為了擴大整個消費者特許經營權,我們非常關注這一點,並且隨著時間的推移,看到卡和消費者銀行之間的互聯產品有很多好處。因此,正如我們所看到的——我們向您展示了一些有關消費者存款的數據,這是過去兩年非常有利的趨勢。

  • And that creates momentum in the total number of clients and usage of the bank accounts and the debit card revenue line. So we should expect that to come, but the real payment strategy is focused on the card issuing and the merchant businesses that are the vast majority of our Payments businesses. And of course, CPS is a very attractive business, and we are expecting those trends to reverse in due course here.

    這為客戶總數、銀行帳戶使用量和借記卡收入線的成長創造了動力。所以我們應該期待這種情況的發生,但真正的支付策略集中在發卡和商家業務,這佔了我們支付業務的絕大部分。當然,CPS 是一個非常有吸引力的業務,我們預計這些趨勢會在適當的時候發生逆轉。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Great. One follow-up just related to consumer. It's great to see the card loss rate come back down now at 3.73% in the third quarter. Are we starting to see that maturation of the portfolio? And where do you expect to see that card loss rate go going forward, assuming a reasonably stable economy from here?

    偉大的。一個後續問題僅與消費者有關。很高興看到第三季的信用卡遺失率回落至 3.73%。我們是否開始看到投資組合的成熟?假設未來經濟保持相對穩定,您預期未來信用卡遺失率會如何變化?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Our view on credit right now is favorable. We see strong spend trends and credit trends, particularly a vast majority of our book is [720] or greater. The spend levels have been very good. The loss rates, as you mentioned, have come down meaningfully this quarter.

    是的。我們現在對信貸的看法是樂觀的。我們看到了強勁的支出趨勢和信貸趨勢,特別是我們的帳簿絕大多數是[720]或更大。支出水平非常好。正如您所說,本季的損失率已大幅下降。

  • There's some seasonality there, but our -- for certain, our 2025 loss rate on card will be less than our loss rate in 2024. So there's some good momentum there. As we get into '26, we'll likely update you there. But it's -- we don't see anything that gives us any concern in this area and so it's been a strong result.

    這其中存在一些季節性因素,但可以肯定的是,我們 2025 年的信用卡損失率將低於 2024 年的損失率。因此,那裡存在一些良好的勢頭。當我們進入 26 年時,我們可能會向您更新最新情況。但我們沒有看到任何讓我們擔心的事情,所以這是一個強勁的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • I just wanted to -- as you think about NRI margin, I think deposit growth and pricing matters. I think Gujan, in your opening remarks, you talked about the bank smartly partnerships, branches, like all of those, from an outside looking in, it's just very hard to figure out whether these are sticky deposits, lower cost deposits.

    我只是想——當你考慮非居民印度人利潤時,我認為存款成長和定價很重要。我認為,古揚,在您的開場白中,您談到了銀行的智能合作夥伴關係、分支機構等,從外部來看,很難弄清楚這些是否是粘性存款或低成本存款。

  • If you don't mind spending some time on just the client acquisition that's happening through these channels and how we should think about either the magnitude of growth they can drive as we look out the next couple of years and the cost structure of these deposits?

    如果您不介意花一些時間研究透過這些管道獲得的客戶,以及我們應該如何思考未來幾年它們可以推動的成長幅度以及這些存款的成本結構?

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me start, and then John will add on. The consumer clients and the consumer deposits, as you pointed out, are both sticky and favorably priced according to the total portfolio. And we think about our deposits in three big categories. The consumer deposits, which includes our Wealth franchise and our wholesale deposits that you're very familiar with. And then we have a large trust business that is quite a unique property.

    讓我先開始,然後約翰會補充。正如您所指出的,消費者客戶和消費者存款都具有黏性,並且根據總投資組合定價有利。我們將存款分為三大類。消費者存款,包括我們的財富特許經營權和您非常熟悉的批發存款。然後我們有一個大型信託業務,這是一項非常獨特的業務。

  • Our ability to drive fee business growth is very helped by the balance sheet presence we have on the wholesale and the trust side. And the pricing there is quite dynamic. So the consumer and our focus on improving the mix of consumer deposits is all about creating stickiness and better funding costs.

    我們在批發和信託方面的資產負債表表現對我們推動費用業務成長的能力有很大幫助。那裡的定價相當有活力。因此,消費者和我們改善消費者存款組合的重點都是為了創造黏性和更好的融資成本。

  • These clients also then feed enormous growth in other businesses. So we very steadily see a client that might start with us on a core checking account or a core savings account, then deepens with credit card, deepens with wealth, and deepens even on the small business side. So those are the strategies across all of the levers that you point out.

    這些客戶也為其他業務帶來了巨大的成長。因此,我們經常看到客戶先從核心支票帳戶或核心儲蓄帳戶開始與我們合作,然後逐漸加深與信用卡的合作,加深與財富的合作,甚至加深與小型企業的合作。這些就是您所指出的所有槓桿的策略。

  • And I'll add to a digital acquisitions with marketing, which we have really stepped up in terms of our investments and our capabilities there as well. So that's the story on deposits and the consumer franchise. And John, you'll add some on pricing.

    我還要補充一點,在數位行銷方面,我們已經在投資和能力方面取得了實質的進步。這就是關於存款和消費者特許經營權的故事。約翰,你會補充一些定價的內容。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. A couple of things I would just mention is we feel very good about where the deposit portfolio shaped out this quarter. We saw very strong growth in both consumer as well as on the commercial side of the equation.

    是的。我想提的幾件事是,我們對本季存款組合的狀況感到非常滿意。我們看到消費者和商業方面都出現了非常強勁的成長。

  • Our desire, as Gunjan -- just to reiterate what she said, our growth is related to on deposits is to grow where it matters and where it's conducive to supporting fee growth. And so when we think about smartly, you mentioned that product, Ebrahim for us.

    正如 Gunjan 所說,我們的願望是——只是重申她所說的話,我們的增長與存款有關,是在重要的地方實現增長,並在有利於支持費用增長的地方實現增長。因此,當我們考慮智能時,您提到了該產品,Ebrahim。

  • We are highly encouraged because it is a product that has 3 times as much multi-products attached to that client when they open up this product that, in and of itself, we know that has more stickiness to it. It brings in a new type of client into our -- into the bank, which is, from a credit card standpoint, about half of the cards that open up are new relationships that we have to the bank, which is very encouraging.

    我們受到很大的鼓舞,因為當客戶打開這個產品時,它會附帶 3 倍的多種產品,就其本身而言,我們知道它具有更高的黏性。它為我們的銀行帶來了一種新型的客戶,從信用卡的角度來看,大約一半的信用卡都與我們建立了新的關係,這是非常令人鼓舞的。

  • And so -- and then on the commercial side of the house, we saw a lot of growth on the deposit side across all sorts of different areas, including treasury management and the investments we've been making in that business over the last couple of years really starting to come to fruition. We saw a lot of growth in investment services this quarter.

    因此,在商業方面,我們看到各個不同領域的存款方面都取得了很大的成長,包括財務管理,而且我們過去幾年在該業務上進行的投資確實開始取得成果。本季度,我們看到投資服務有了很大的成長。

  • There's just a lot of business activity. And so we gained a lot of deposits as there's just a lot of investments moving around and so we house those deposits while that is occurring. So all this activity that occurs is really beneficial to us.

    這裡有很多商業活動。因此,我們獲得了很多存款,因為有很多投資在流動,所以我們在流動的同時存放這些存款。因此,發生的所有這些活動對我們來說都是非常有益的。

  • And for that reason, we saw benefits to our fee categories, as you saw this quarter. And it's really all interconnected, which is what the point of what Gunjan was saying earlier in the call.

    因此,正如您在本季看到的那樣,我們的費用類別有所受益。所有這些都是相互關聯的,這也是 Gunjan 在通話中早些時候所說的重點。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And I guess maybe going back to the margin discussion, John. So you've talked about it was pretty good expansion this quarter. You've talked about the 3%. I'm just wondering as we think through the journey from 2.75% to 3%, is there a point where there's a pretty material inflection outside of like the back book repricing everything that you talked about?

    知道了。這很有幫助。我想也許可以回到保證金討論,約翰。所以您說本季的擴張相當不錯。您已經談到了 3%。我只是想知道,當我們思考從 2.75% 到 3% 的歷程時,除了您談到的重新定價所有內容之外,是否存在一個相當實質性的拐點?

  • I'm just wondering, is there a chance you could hit 3% by this time next year by the fourth quarter? Is it just very steady state? Or are there going to be big step-ups in the progress towards that 3% NIM?

    我只是想知道,到明年第四季這個時候,有沒有可能達到 3%?它只是非常穩定的狀態嗎?或者在實現 3% 淨利差的道路上是否會取得重大進展?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So I won't repeat everything I said on the drivers. But the -- but to your point on the speed in which you get there, I'll point out that the curve from a SOFR versus five-year treasury is still quite inverted. And so a speed up, if you will, of margin could be the Fed is programmatically cutting. The curve is more upward sloping on that part of the curve, and that could really help boost the speed in which net interest margin improves.

    當然。所以我不會重複我所說的有關司機的一切。但是 - 但對於您提到的達到這一目標的速度,我要指出的是,SOFR 與五年期國債的曲線仍然相當倒置。因此,如果你願意的話,聯準會加速降息可能是在進行程序性降息。曲線的該部分更加向上傾斜,這確實有助於提高淨利差改善的速度。

  • The other side on the asset side are going to be a little bit more mechanical and more -- we are embedded in how we move forward. But it's really going to be that the macro that's going to drive the speed in which we get there.

    資產方面的另一方面將會更加機械化,而且更加根植於我們如何前進。但真正推動我們實現這一目標的速度的是宏觀因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Mayo, Wells Fargo.

    麥可梅奧,富國銀行。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • I don't know if we put this in the category of the Loch Ness monster, the Bermuda Triangle, and the contents of NDFI, but I'm sure many appreciate your detailing of NDFI but that's not really the way you run the business by NDFI. So I guess it's just connecting regulatory reporting with your business lines.

    我不知道我們是否將其歸類為尼斯湖水怪、百慕達三角和 NDFI 內容的類別,但我相信很多人都欣賞您對 NDFI 的詳細介紹,但這並不是您透過 NDFI 開展業務的真正方式。所以我猜這只是將監管報告與您的業務線聯繫起來。

  • But since you did disclose that, can you just give us a little bit more color? You say that credit quality is higher on NDFI than your core C&I portfolio, which is interesting. NDFI is 12% of the total loan book, like where would that have been, say, 5 or 10 years ago? And any loans that you're not pursuing? I mean the key to good credit quality is choosing to say no a lot.

    但既然您確實透露了這一點,您能否給我們更多詳細資訊?您說 NDFI 的信用品質高於您的核心 C&I 投資組合,這很有趣。NDFI 佔貸款總額的 12%,那麼 5 年前或 10 年前這個數字是多少?還有什麼不想申請的貸款嗎?我的意思是,良好信用品質的關鍵是選擇多說「不」。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure, Mike. Thanks. I think the slide is in there because there's just been a lot of interest in the industry. You're right. I mean there's -- it is a very broad and set of businesses within there. Obviously, as you know, mortgage warehouse lending and subscription lines and auto ABS are very different items. We just wanted to show the categories that we have.

    當然,麥克。謝謝。我認為幻燈片出現在那裡是因為人們對這個行業很感興趣。你說得對。我的意思是──那裡面的業務範圍非常廣泛。顯然,如您所知,抵押倉儲貸款和認購額度與汽車 ABS 是非常不同的項目。我們只是想展示我們擁有的類別。

  • I think the point that we're trying to make is that our risk disciplines and how we think about the diversification of this book is something that we spend a lot of time on. And it's not just the category for the category's sake. It's just the way we operate in terms of our credit culture.

    我認為我們想要表達的觀點是,我們花了很多時間來研究我們的風險學科以及我們如何看待這本書的多樣化。這不僅僅是為了類別而類別。這只是我們信用文化的運作方式。

  • So we think about the multiple ways that there's repayment. We think about how these are overcollateralized. We think about the data that is needed to look through on some of these structures and things like that and the risk limits embedded in there.

    因此,我們考慮了多種償還方式。我們思考這些是如何超額抵押的。我們考慮了查看這些結構和類似事物所需的數據以及其中嵌入的風險限制。

  • And ultimately, we know these clients a lot over many years; many of these clients we've been servicing in many different products over a vast number of years. And in terms of the growth that we've seen, I don't have a number for you in terms of 5 or 10 years. But it obviously has grown pretty substantially over the last several years. And -- but we're very comfortable with it because we, again, we know the clients.

    最終,多年來我們對這些客戶非常了解;多年來,我們已經為許多客戶提供許多不同產品的服務。就我們所看到的成長而言,我無法給出一個 5 年或 10 年內的具體數字。但顯然,過去幾年它已經大幅成長。而且——但我們對此非常滿意,因為我們再次了解客戶。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And we'd add that these are broad relationships on the fee side in addition to the loan book, and that's just client selection there.

    我們還要補充一點,除了貸款帳簿之外,這些還有費用方面的廣泛關係,這只是客戶選擇。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • And my other question is, where would you say you choose to say no, a little bit more often than not? In other words, you could have faster loan growth, any bank could. Are there any areas where you say, hey, let's pay more attention to this?

    我的另一個問題是,在什麼情況下您會更頻繁地選擇說「不」?換句話說,任何銀行都可以實現更快的貸款成長。您是否會說,在哪些方面我們應該多加關注?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. We have that conversation all the time on our credit committees and things of that variety. We're talking about line items that -- and single counterparty limits and things of that variety and a number of different things.

    當然。我們在信貸委員會和諸如此類的會議上經常討論這個問題。我們正在討論專案——以及單一交易對手限制以及諸如此類的事情和許多不同的事情。

  • We're careful about certain areas that have -- that when we look through have more leverage and things of that variety. We want to make sure we understand it. It's all on the credit profile and the client selection is very important. We're servicing a number of the different large players here that are very well known to the market, and we feel very comfortable about the book.

    我們對某些領域非常謹慎——當我們仔細觀察時,這些領域具有更多的影響力和多樣性。我們想確保我們理解它。這一切都取決於信用狀況,客戶選擇非常重要。我們為市場上許多知名的大型企業提供服務,我們對這本書感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Saul Martinez, HSBC.

    匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

    Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Just wanted to quickly follow up on the fourth-quarter net interest income outlook being stable. I get that there is a bias to the upside. But John, you did mention that there are some upside sources and there are some risks. And I think you mentioned credit card favorability in 3Q and some other risks.

    只是想快速跟進一下第四季淨利息收入前景是否穩定。我明白存在著向上的偏見。但是約翰,你確實提到過,存在一些好處,也存在一些風險。我認為您提到了第三季信用卡的優惠政策和其他一些風險。

  • But I'm not sure I understand, could you just elaborate a little bit on what the card favorability dynamics are and what the other downside risks are? And what are you assuming there for rates in the fourth quarter? And how are you thinking about the rate backdrop in '26?

    但我不確定我是否理解,您能否詳細說明一下卡片偏好動態是什麼以及其他下行風險是什麼?您對第四季的利率有何預期?您如何看待 26 年的利率背景?

  • Are you working with a forward curve? Which I think has five cuts in it, which presumably would be good for you. But just any color on how you're thinking about the rate backdrop next year? And also, is it -- what are you assuming for the fourth quarter? And how does that influence your guidance at all?

    您是在運用遠期曲線嗎?我認為它有五個切口,可能對你有好處。但是您對明年的利率背景有何看法?另外,您對第四季有何預期?這對您的指導有何影響?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Let me go with the assumptions first. I think that's a good place to start on your questions. From a curve and from a rate perspective, we do include two cuts this year. We also have two more cuts in 2026. So maybe we're a little bit late relative to the market in terms of cuts, but that obviously always shifts.

    當然。讓我先來談談假設。我認為這是回答你的問題的一個很好的起點。從曲線和利率角度來看,我們今年確實進行了兩次降息。2026 年我們還會再削減兩次。因此,就減產而言,我們可能相對於市場而言有點晚了,但情況顯然總是在變化的。

  • We do have longer-term yields. I'll just pick on the 10-year treasury as an example, more in the four quarter -- 4 to 50 -- excuse me, [4.25% to 4.50%] range for the 2026 year. And so as I think about the fourth quarter to get to a little more specifics of what you were talking about, we have a lot of upside in terms of the things that have been working for us in the past in terms of fixed asset repricing. The mix is obviously going to be very favorable for us.

    我們確實有長期收益。我將以 10 年期公債為例,2026 年的利率範圍在四個季度——4 至 50——不好意思,是 [4.25% 至 4.50%] 之間。因此,當我思考第四季時,為了更詳細地了解您所說的內容,就過去在固定資產重新定價方面對我們有利的事情而言,我們有很多好處。這種組合顯然對我們非常有利。

  • When I think about the things that are going the other way for the fourth quarter, we did have meaningful pickup in credit card yield this quarter. There was fees that we picked up as well as just strength in that area. Some of that is seasonality.

    當我思考第四季的其他情況時,我發現本季我們的信用卡收益確實出現了顯著回升。我們收取了費用,並且在那個領域擁有實力。其中一些是季節性的。

  • We expect that to reverse in the fourth quarter just given the trends that we are observing. But all in all, as we put together these things, there's obviously a lot of moving parts, especially in the fourth quarter, but I'll reiterate that we see more opportunity than we do risk as it's embedded into our call.

    根據我們觀察到的趨勢,我們預計第四季度這種情況將會逆轉。但總而言之,當我們把這些事情放在一起時,顯然有很多活動的部分,特別是在第四季度,但我要重申的是,我們看到的機會比風險更多,因為它已經融入我們的呼籲中。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And so I'll add that the fourth-quarter credit card dynamics are very seasonal and expected. It's the holiday season dynamics. So we expect that. There's nothing unique about what we are seeing in that book just at this time. It's just the holiday season changes the dynamics there a little bit.

    因此,我要補充一點,第四季的信用卡動態具有很強的季節性和預期性。這是假日季節的動態。所以我們期待這一點。目前我們在這本書中看到的內容並沒有什麼獨特之處。只是假期稍微改變了那裡的動態。

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

    Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe the surprise positively spread, I guess, by the size of the sustainable finance business and the growth that you've seen there, and it is a pretty big part of the other income line. I just wanted to make sure I understood. You aren't expecting continued growth as you see a pull forward of some of this activity and from current levels?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後,我想,也許驚喜會透過永續金融業務的規模和你所看到的成長而積極傳播,而且它是其他收入線中相當大的一部分。我只是想確保我理解了。您認為部分活動將從當前水準向前推進,因此您不認為會繼續增長嗎?

  • And if that is the case, I guess, what does it -- I guess, what does it mean for the other income line? Because that has been moving higher, I guess. I know it could jump around quarter-to-quarter but is that -- should we be thinking that line is going to move higher as well as this business continues to grow?

    如果事實確實如此,我想,這對其他收入線意味著什麼?因為我猜,這是因為它一直在不斷走高。我知道它可能每個季度都會有所波動,但是,隨著業務的持續增長,我們是否應該認為這條線也會隨之走高?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Our view is that the Impact Finance line item will improve and increase. We've had, as we saw on the slide, a 17% increase. We expect this to be a high-single-digit type of business over the medium term.

    是的。我們認為影響力融資項目將會改善並增加。正如我們在幻燈片上看到的,我們的成長幅度為 17%。我們預計,從中期來看,這將是一個高個位數的業務類型。

  • There's not -- I mean, there may be some pull forward given some of the legislative moves and things of that variety. But I -- we see the momentum in the business. They've been gaining market share. It's an area that the team has had a lot of focus on and you look about renewable energy tax credits and you look at low-income housing and things of that variety.

    沒有——我的意思是,考慮到一些立法舉措和類似的事情,可能會有一些進展。但我——我們看到了業務的發展勢頭。他們的市場份額一直在不斷擴大。這是團隊重點關注的領域,包括再生能源稅收抵免、低收入住房以及諸如此類的事情。

  • These are areas that we -- and new market tax credits, we're number one in terms of that market share. And so we've been building our capabilities here and we've been -- the additional tailwinds have been the -- some of the administrative or the legislative areas that have helped us here as well.

    這些是我們的領域——以及新的市場稅收抵免,就市場份額而言,我們排名第一。因此,我們一直在這裡建立我們的能力,而且我們——額外的順風是——一些行政或立法領域也為我們提供了幫助。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And so you're right, it's quite a large business today. It started out in the other category, and we've had some questions from all of you on what really is there. So we wanted to highlight a part of the business. That's actually very core to what we do. It's ingrained in day-to-day running of the businesses, but it has become quite sizable also because of Union Bank.

    所以你說得對,今天這是一個相當大的生意。它始於其他類別,我們收到了大家的一些疑問,想知道那裡到底是什麼。所以我們想突出業務的一部分。這實際上是我們工作的核心。它已根深蒂固地融入企業的日常運營中,但由於聯合銀行的存在,它變得相當龐大。

  • Union Bank acquisition for us is about three years old now, and we are just beginning to realize the revenue benefits some of that client base and the presence in California. And this business is a good example of what a good strong presence in California can do to certain line items. So very attractive business for us, a long, long-standing business, which just has become quite large now.

    我們收購聯合銀行已有三年左右的時間,我們才剛開始意識到這項收購帶來的收入將有利於部分客戶群以及我們在加州的業務。這項業務很好地證明了在加州的強大影響力對某些產品的影響。對我們來說,這是一項非常有吸引力的業務,一項長期存在的業務,現在變得相當大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Can you guys share with us -- obviously, there's a lot of talk about stable coin and the impact it may have on the Payments business. And can you share with us how you're getting out in front of it and what you're doing to prepare yourselves for the stable coin activity eventually coming into the Payments business?

    你們能否與我們分享一下——顯然,有很多關於穩定幣及其對支付業務可能產生的影響的討論。您能否與我們分享您是如何走在前面的,以及您為穩定幣活動最終進入支付業務做了哪些準備?

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So we are working on stable coins in two very distinct areas. The first is around the capital markets and investments part of it where the business model is very clear and it's very favorable to us. So this is custody and safekeeping of the collateral underlying stable coins or custody and safekeeping of cryptocurrency assets. These are products that are being produced time back, have re-introduced with the shift in the supervisory environment and are quite confident in our ability to just provide those products.

    因此,我們正在兩個截然不同的領域中致力於穩定貨幣的研究。首先是圍繞資本市場和投資部分,其商業模式非常清晰,對我們非常有利。因此,這是對穩定幣基礎抵押品的保管和保管,或對加密貨幣資產的保管和保管。這些產品是以前生產過的,隨著監管環境的變化而重新推出,我們對提供這些產品的能力非常有信心。

  • The other side is stable coins as a payment rail where the client demand is more muted, although there are a lot of discussions. And there are efforts twofold. One is to just be ready to onboard and afford a stable coin into the banking system and we are working on that in conjunction with the industry consortiums.

    另一方面,穩定幣作為支付管道,客戶需求較為溫和,儘管有許多討論。我們需要做出雙重努力。一是準備好將穩定幣引入銀行系統,我們正在與產業聯盟合作這項工作。

  • And then the second is just being ready to provide stable coin services as a payment vehicle, should that market take off within our client base. So we expect to pilot some stable coin transactions yet this year with some partnerships in the market.

    第二,如果該市場在我們的客戶群中發展起來,我們就準備好提供穩定的貨幣服務作為支付工具。因此,我們預計今年將與市場上的一些合作夥伴試行一些穩定的貨幣交易。

  • I'm also -- we are also very aware that we have a unique franchise in Elan, where we provide credit card payment services to 1,200 banks on a white label service. So this is also a question that we get from our smaller bank base. So we are just studying that market and being ready for it if it takes off.

    我也非常清楚,我們在 Elan 擁有獨特的特許經營權,我們透過白標服務向 1,200 家銀行提供信用卡支付服務。這也是我們從較小的銀行群體中得到的問題。因此,我們正在研究這個市場,並為它的起飛做好準備。

  • But the real momentum from revenues and a clear business case and an economic model is on the custody and investment side. So it's a multidimensional field. It's moving very fast. We've just announced some organization changes to stay current with the industry as it evolves and more to come there.

    但收入、清晰的商業案例和經濟模式的真正動力在於託管和投資方面。所以它是一個多維領域。它移動得非常快。我們剛剛宣布了一些組織變革,以跟上行業的發展步伐,並帶來更多變化。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very good. And then can you remind us when you look out over the next 12 or 24 months, as your CET1 ratio with the AOCI included, continues to grow, your views of returning capital to shareholders? For years, US Bancorp consistently returned 75% to 80% of earnings. Can you refresh our memories on what you think the long-term return will be to shareholders?

    非常好。然後,您能否提醒我們,展望未來 12 或 24 個月,隨著包含 AOCI 在內的 CET1 比率持續增長,您對向股東返還資本的看法是什麼?多年來,美國合眾銀行的獲利回報率一直維持在 75% 至 80% 之間。您能否讓我們回想一下您認為股東的長期回報是多少?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure, Gerard. It's John here. So we're obviously continuing to build our capital base. I would consider that we're in the final lap, if you will, of building out our capital. We were at 8.4% a couple of years ago. You'll recall, we're at 10.9% now, where -- we gave you the number included in AOCI and where we're attempting to get into.

    當然,杰拉德。我是約翰。因此,我們顯然正在繼續建立我們的資本基礎。如果你願意的話,我認為我們正處於建設資本的最後一圈。幾年前我們的這一比例是 8.4%。您會記得,我們​​現在的比例是 10.9%,我們向您提供了 AOCI 中包含的數字以及我們試圖進入的比例。

  • Obviously, we are looking to increase that amount. It may not be this quarter, but as we look into 2026, we certainly have -- feel that the glide path will be there to increase our pace and get to that 75% area that we -- that had mentioned on the slide that you'll see there and we're very much committed to that.

    顯然,我們希望增加這個金額。可能不是本季度,但當我們展望 2026 年時,我們確實感覺到,下滑路徑將會存在,這將加快我們的步伐,並達到我們在幻燈片上提到的 75% 的區域,您將在那裡看到,我們非常致力於此。

  • And so that, along with the things we have to balance, things like loan growth and things like that. We'll take it quarter by quarter, but that just gives you, high level, how we're thinking about it.

    因此,我們必須平衡諸如貸款成長之類的事情。我們將按季度進行,但這只能從總體上向您展示我們對此的看法。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Great. And Gunjan, thank you for bringing Mark to Bob for the details about Payments. We appreciate it.

    偉大的。Gunjan,感謝您讓 Mark 和 Bob 討論有關付款的詳細資訊。我們對此表示感謝。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Gerard. Mark and Courtney. So Courtney will present on the card issuing business, which is a big part of our business, and Mark will join you for MPS. So look forward to that.

    謝謝你,傑拉德。馬克和考特尼。因此,Courtney 將介紹發卡業務,這是我們業務的重要組成部分,Mark 將與你們一起介紹 MPS。所以,請期待這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Just a few cleanup questions, if I may. Just first, I wanted to clarify, John, you said the fixed asset repricing is 2 to 3 basis points of embedded lift. I just wanted to clarify if that embedded lift is a per quarter statement? And also, as we think about fixed asset repricing, is that more tethered to the belly of the curve or the 10-year range that you mentioned [4.25%, 4.50%]?

    如果可以的話,我只想問幾個清理問題。首先,我想澄清一下,約翰,你說固定資產重新定價是嵌入提升 2 到 3 個基點。我只是想澄清一下嵌入式提升是否是按季報表?此外,當我們考慮固定資產重新定價時,它是否更多地與曲線底部或您提到的 10 年範圍掛鉤[4.25%,4.50%]?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So yeah, just to be clear, let me -- and thank you for allowing me to clarify. When I said the 2 to 3 basis points, I was referring to mix as well as fixed asset repricing that we have on a quarterly basis. So think of that as an embedded quarterly type of improvement that should be happening.

    當然。是的,為了清楚起見,請允許我——感謝您允許我澄清。當我說 2 到 3 個基點時,我指的是我們每季進行的組合以及固定資產重新定價。因此,可以將其視為應該發生的嵌入式季度改進。

  • Now, as we know, every quarter, there can be movements in balance sheet that can alter net interest margin, and we don't always manage -- net interest margin is an output. But directionally, obviously, we want that to improve and things of that variety.

    現在,正如我們所知,每個季度,資產負債表都會發生變動,從而改變淨利差,而我們並不總是能夠管理——淨息差是一種產出。但從方向來看,顯然我們希望這種情況能夠得到改善,而且還有類似這樣的事情。

  • And then in terms of the mix -- or excuse me, the repricing and where we focus on, it's more of the belly of the curve is probably more appropriate. The five-year treasury, I think, is always a good proxy to look at. And obviously, spreads where those are at, whether it's mortgage spreads or credit spreads just in general. So that's -- those are the items that I look at.

    然後就組合而言 - 或者對不起,重新定價和我們關注的重點,曲線的腹部可能更合適。我認為,五年期公債始終是值得關注的好指標。顯然,利差就在那裡,無論是抵押貸款利差還是一般的信貸利差。這就是──這些就是我要看的項目。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And my second question is for Gunjan. The stock is clearly reacting favorably today. You had a nice beat to consensus really on the revenue side, and it's really the revenue side that's driving the positive operating leverage this quarter.

    我的第二個問題是針對 Gunjan 的。該股今日的反應顯然良好。在收入方面,你們確實取得了不錯的成績,而收入方面確實是本季正向營運槓桿的推動力。

  • As you think forward, how are you balancing some of the embedded momentum that you have been talking about on this call that you're going to continue to talk about in Boston in a few weeks, versus what seems to be a lot of questions and pressure on larger management teams in terms of questions on scale and having a relatively short inorganic growth window in this -- under this current administration?

    當您展望未來時,您如何平衡在這次電話會議上談到的一些內在動力(幾週後您將在波士頓繼續討論)與大型管理團隊在規模問題和相對較短的無機增長窗口方面面臨的許多問題和壓力——在現任政府的領導下?

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Erika, good morning. Thank you for the question. We -- when I stepped into my role now six months back, we had very clearly articulated three priorities, and they were connected to each other. The first most urgent from a sequencing and timing standpoint because expenses are -- it was -- our opportunity was very real there.

    艾麗卡,早安。謝謝你的提問。六個月前,當我上任時,我們非常清楚地闡明了三個優先事項,而且它們是相互關聯的。從順序和時間角度來看,這是最緊迫的,因為費用是——我們的機會非常真實。

  • We had finished embedding Union Bank. We had finished all of the work we were doing to restore our capital positions. And it was appropriate to bring the efficiency ratio back to what the business model requires it to be, which is mid- to high-50s.

    我們已經完成了聯合銀行的嵌入。我們已經完成了恢復資本狀況的所有工作。將效率比率恢復到商業模式所需的水平,即 50% 左右是合適的。

  • Having done that, we exceeded what we wanted to do from the efficiency ratio and positive operating leverage standpoint and released a fair amount of investment to invest in organic growth. And you're beginning to see that show up now.

    這樣做之後,我們從效率比率和正向營運槓桿的角度超出了我們的預期,並釋放了相當數量的投資來投資有機成長。現在你開始看到它出現了。

  • And you'll see payments show up sequentially a little bit behind that just because the sales cycles and the revenue models take time. That's why we talk about leading indicators. So it's less a matter of balancing between them, but one fueling the other with the ultimate goal being EPS growth that is also accompanied by very high attractive returns.

    您會發現付款按順序出現得稍微晚一些,這是因為銷售週期和收入模式需要時間。這就是我們談論領先指標的原因。因此,這並不是在它們之間取得平衡的問題,而是一個推動另一個的問題,最終目標是實現每股盈餘成長,同時帶來非常高的回報。

  • And you'll know John pointed out that we have increased our -- we have maintained and increased our return on tangible capital very specifically. So going forward, you'll see the growth side of the equation become more present in our strategies.

    你會知道約翰指出我們已經增加了——我們保持並增加了有形資本的回報率。因此,展望未來,您將看到等式的成長方面在我們的策略中變得更加突出。

  • First, with all of the fee businesses, our evolution to a more attractive asset side with more leaning in on C&I and credit loans and on deposits, more attractive balance sheet leaning in on the consumer side. So you see NII growth and you see fee growth and then you're going to start seeing the strategies for Payments. So we're feeling very good about the momentum organically over time and certainly see very real opportunity and quite a lot of runway on organic growth for us.

    首先,隨著所有費用業務的發展,我們的資產端更具吸引力,更傾向於商業和工業、信貸貸款和存款,資產負債表更加具有吸引力,傾向於消費者端。因此,您會看到 NII 成長,會看到費用成長,然後您將開始看到支付策略。因此,我們對長期的有機成長動能感到非常滿意,並且確實看到了真正的機會和相當大的有機成長空間。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And just to clarify, Gunjan, given how you answered that question, US fees-focused, and obviously, like John said, you're in the final phase of rebuilding capital. Your focus is inward and not outward in terms of bank acquisitions? Just want to be clear that that's the message that you're giving us.

    需要澄清的是,Gunjan,根據你對這個問題的回答,美國以費用為中心,而且顯然,就像 John 所說的那樣,你正處於重建資本的最後階段。在銀行收購方面,您的重點是內部而不是外部?我只是想明確地表明,這就是您要向我們傳達的訊息。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Our focus is very much on organic growth.

    我們非常注重有機成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • I just wanted to circle back to the discussion earlier on the Impact Financing and the implication for tax rate. Gunjan, I think you mentioned that you will be leaning into this effort that you have and that as you do lean into it, it should have some impact on tax.

    我只是想回到之前關於影響融資及其對稅率的影響的討論。Gunjan,我想你提到過,你會傾力投入這項努力,而且當你傾力投入時,它應該會對稅收產生一些影響。

  • Could you help us understand how much and over what timeframe is this? And I bring it up relative to the slide 32 that talks about key assumptions for medium term include current tax policy, and I wasn't sure if current tax policy meant current tax rate? Or the expectation for tax rate to come down as you increase Impact Finance?

    您能幫助我們了解這個數字是多少以及持續多久嗎?我將其與幻燈片 32 聯繫起來,其中討論了中期關鍵假設,包括當前稅收政策,但我不確定當前稅收政策是否意味著當前稅率?還是隨著影響力融資的增加,稅率預期會下降?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure, Betsy. So I think when I think about the Impact Finance components for me, the tax benefit that we've received is likely not going to change much from where we sit today. So there's probably a 3 point-plus or minus benefit to us in our tax rate that has been there for some time and will continue.

    當然,貝琪。因此,我認為,當我考慮影響力金融組成部分時,我們所獲得的稅收優惠可能不會與今天的情況有太大變化。因此,我們的稅率可能存在 3 個百分點的正負效益,這種效益已經持續了一段時間,而且還會持續下去。

  • The growth that we're talking about here on the fee side is related to transferability and syndications and things of that variety where we have been very good, where the tax policy changes have allowed that market to flourish with more freedom.

    我們在這裡談論的費用方面的增長與可轉讓性和銀團貸款以及諸如此類的事情有關,我們在這些方面做得非常好,稅收政策的變化使這個市場能夠更加自由地繁榮發展。

  • And I think that is what we're -- that is where we have our ability to grow and where do we skip to see more fee revenues that I've been talking about there in terms of our assumed growth rate. So that's really where it's at and the tax rate, we'll continue that favorability as we mentioned on the tax rate as well.

    我認為這就是我們的——這就是我們的成長能力所在,也是我們跳過哪些環節來獲得更多費用收入的地方,就我們的假設成長率而言,我一直在談論這些收入。這就是實際情況,對於稅率,我們將繼續保持這種優惠,正如我們在稅率上提到的那樣。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • Okay. So right now, it's about 3% benefit to tax rate. And even with increasing this business, you expect it to hover in that range.

    好的。所以現在,稅率的收益約為 3%。即使這項業務有所成長,您也預期它會徘徊在該範圍內。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I would -- that's exactly right.

    我會的——完全正確。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

    克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Looking at slide 19, I guess, '18, '19 together, the building upon medium-term targets comment, several larger banks have either put out revised targets or hinted at targets this quarter. I guess my question is, given that you're more or less there, is that something that we might think is on the horizon over the near to intermediate term?

    看看幻燈片 19,我猜,'18,'19 一起,基於中期目標的評論,幾家較大的銀行要么提出了修訂後的目標,要么暗示了本季度的目標。我想我的問題是,鑑於您或多或少已經了解這一點,我們是否認為這是在近期或中期即將發生的事情?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Chris. I appreciate the question. Obviously, we're pleased to be where we're operating here in terms of where we sit in terms of our medium-term targets. There's nothing formal, but you'll note in my prepared comments about how -- while we're pleased, this isn't the end.

    謝謝,克里斯。我很感謝你提出這個問題。顯然,就我們的中期目標而言,我們很高興能在這裡工作。沒有什麼正式的,但你會從我準備好的評論中註意到——雖然我們很高興,但這並不是結束。

  • We anticipate to improve, and that's really what our focus is. So there's no change to any of the medium-term targets. We think those are appropriate and right, but we do expect improvement of ourselves over time.

    我們期待進步,這才是我們真正關注的重點。因此,任何中期目標都沒有改變。我們認為這些都是適當且正確的,但我們確實期望自己隨著時間的推移而有所進步。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Okay. And then, John, if I could just push out, what would -- I guess, what would it take for you to revisit them? Is it just staying here for a bit of time and the operating environment is staying good? Or what would specifically need to change?

    好的。那麼,約翰,如果我能堅持下去,那——我想,你需要做些什麼才能再次拜訪他們呢?是不是只是在這裡待一段時間,經營環境就一直很好?或是具體需要改變什麼?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I think it would be those two things that you just mentioned. I mean, it's the operating environment improves. Our execution exceeds even our own expectations. And then those are going to be triggers that we would look to.

    是的。我認為就是您剛才提到的那兩件事。我的意思是,營運環境得到了改善。我們的執行甚至超出了我們自己的預期。這些將成為我們要關注的觸發因素。

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would just add, we need to just consistently stay in the range and then start hitting the upper end of each range, and then we think about changing the ranges.

    我只想補充一點,我們需要始終保持在該範圍內,然後開始達到每個範圍的上限,然後我們考慮改變範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

  • Matthew O'Connor - Analyst

    Matthew O'Connor - Analyst

  • Just a quick clarification. You talked about assuming slightly higher rates in the forward curve in 2026. If the forward curve plays out versus your rate assumptions, would that be directionally positive or negative for your net interest margin?

    只是簡單澄清一下。您談到假設 2026 年遠期曲線利率會略高。如果遠期曲線與您的利率假設相悖,這對您的淨利差而言是利好還是利空?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I think the -- as I mentioned, we have four cuts in our forecast. I think the market is a little bit wider than that. So if the forward is actually transpired, then that would be a net benefit if I think our longer-term rates are probably a little bit more higher than where the forwards are at this point.

    是的。我認為——正如我所提到的,我們的預測中有四次下調。我認為市場比這更廣闊一些。因此,如果遠期利率確實發生,並且我認為我們的長期利率可能比目前的遠期利率略高,那麼這將是一項淨收益。

  • And so we would need to see a little bit more improvement there to get additional benefit on the fixed asset repricing. So it's a little bit of a mix on balance. It's about equal, I would say.

    因此,我們需要看到更多的改善才能從固定資產重新定價中獲得額外的好處。所以整體來說,這是一種混合體。我想說,這差不多是平等的。

  • Matthew O'Connor - Analyst

    Matthew O'Connor - Analyst

  • Okay. So positive on the short end, get back on the long end. And when you put all together, about the same.

    好的。因此,在短端保持積極,在長端保持積極。當你把所有東西放在一起時,它們就差不多了。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Exactly.

    確切地。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

    (操作員指令)Vivek Juneja,摩根大通。

  • Vivek Juneja - Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Analyst

  • Given that a lot of the bigger picture questions have been asked this -- in the realm of some cleanup, John, I have a question for you. What is included in your other earning assets where the yield went up 300 basis points linked quarter with an interest income increase of $100 million, which is over 60% of the increase in your NII linked quarter, and the yield is almost 8% is higher than any other asset on the balance sheet? What drove that? And how sustainable is that, John?

    鑑於已經提出了很多更大的問題——在某些清理領域,約翰,我有一個問題要問你。您的其他收益資產包括哪些資產?這些資產的收益率與上一季相比上升了 300 個基點,利息收入增加了 1 億美元,佔您 NII 掛鉤季度增幅的 60% 以上,收益率幾乎達到 8%,高於資產負債表上的任何其他資產?是什麼導致了這種情況?那這有多可持續呢,約翰?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Thank you. So we have to look at that line item along with the short-term liability line item. And so those two things have a little bit more -- have a gross up of yield. And so if I step back in what's going on, we've increased our capacity and ability in the capital market space on tri-party repo and our volumes have picked up quite a bit.

    當然。謝謝。因此,我們必須將該項目與短期負債項目一起查看。因此,這兩件事的收益會稍微增加一點。因此,如果我回顧一下正在發生的事情,我們已經增加了在三方回購資本市場領域的容量和能力,我們的交易量也增加了不少。

  • We do have the ability to net those balances. So the balance sheet is smaller, to your point, about $1 billion or so on that particular line item. And -- but we keep the gross-up amount on the yield and so that differential is going to show up in those two-line items.

    我們確實有能力抵銷這些餘額。因此,正如您所說,資產負債表規模較小,該特定項目的規模約為 10 億美元左右。並且 — — 但我們將總金額保留在收益中,因此差異將顯示在這兩行項目中。

  • If you net those things out, there's really no meaningful change to NII or net interest margin. You just have to look at the two of those items together.

    如果將這些因素除去,NII 或淨利差實際上不會發生任何有意義的變化。您只需將這兩項放在一起看即可。

  • You'll note that short-term borrowings dropped about $7 billion. That wasn't really repo related. That's about -- again, about that $1 billion, most of it was just short-term borrowings that we had used the prior quarter given the asset sales that we had, and we had obviously strong deposit growth. So we could just reduce that balance there.

    您會注意到短期借款下降了約 70 億美元。這實際上與 repo 無關。大約是 — — 再說一次,大約 10 億美元,其中大部分只是我們在上一季度考慮到資產銷售而使用的短期借款,而且我們的存款增長顯然很強勁。所以我們可以減少那裡的餘額。

  • Vivek Juneja - Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Analyst

  • Okay. And another one for either of you. Your C&I NPLs were up 30% linked quarter. Any color on what you're seeing? Which industry sectors? What's the loss content like? Any color on that?

    好的。你們兩人各得一份。您的商業和工業不良貸款環比增長了 30%。您看到的東西有顏色嗎?哪些行業?損失內容是怎樣的?有顏色嗎?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So a couple of things. It's obviously -- there are some things that can be lumpy from time to time. We do have some exposure to first brands. It's not material to our financials as it's already contemplated in the reserve, but that partially explains the rise in commercial NPAs that you referenced.

    當然。有幾件事。顯然,有些事情有時會變得棘手。我們確實接觸過一些一線品牌。這對我們的財務狀況並不重要,因為它已經在儲備中考慮過了,但這部分解釋了您提到的商業不良資產的增加。

  • Vivek Juneja - Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Analyst

  • And have you taken any kind of a loss or a provision, therefore, for first brands? In what form was that exposure to the first brand, John?

    那麼,對於第一品牌,您是否承擔了任何損失或撥備?以什麼形式接觸第一個品牌,約翰?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • It's just our secured borrowings that we have with them, and it's already -- any of the losses contemplated in our reserve already within the provision.

    這只是我們與他們之間的擔保借款,而且我們的儲備中考慮的任何損失都已包含在準備金內。

  • Vivek Juneja - Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Analyst

  • And are there other similar structures like this that we should be worrying about, given I would presume that the first brand stuff showed up under your NDFI?

    鑑於我假設第一批品牌產品出現在您的 NDFI 下,是否有其他類似的結構需要我們擔心?

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • No. This is on the bank side of the equation. And no, the answer is no. There's -- we have to see a lot of strength in the commercial side of the equation as well as on the retail side, as we talked about with cards. So we continue to look to see if there's -- there are things and we just are not seeing it.

    不。這是等式中的銀行方面。不,答案是否定的。正如我們談到卡片時所說,我們必須看到商業方面和零售方面的巨大優勢。因此,我們繼續觀察是否有——有些東西是我們還沒有看到的。

  • Vivek Juneja - Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Analyst

  • Gunjan, for you, what are you thinking of doing differently because first brands is obviously a big surprise for the market?

    Gunjan,對您來說,您考慮採取什麼不同的措施,因為第一個品牌顯然會為市場帶來巨大的驚喜?

  • Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gunjan Kedia - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I don't think we'll do anything differently. We have very, very strong underwriting capabilities. When you have a large book, you have one or two issues. You have to be very appropriately reserved for it, which we are.

    我認為我們不會做任何不同的事情。我們的承保能力非常非常強。當你有一本厚書時,你會有一兩個問題。你必須對此保持適當的矜持,我們就是這樣的。

  • You have to be diligent to learn lessons from it, and we have a lot of confidence in the quality of the credit book and our underwriting process. So I'm not sure there's anything to be done differently but be very -- but to remain very vigilant and rely on your strong traditional underwriting strength.

    你必須勤奮地從中吸取教訓,我們對信用帳簿的品質和承保流程非常有信心。因此,我不確定是否有什麼可以做的不同的事情,但要保持高度警惕並依靠強大的傳統承保實力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • I think most have been asked and answered. But maybe, John, I know we've had a little noise in the loan growth numbers this year with some of the actions you took earlier in the year. Are we at a point where we could expect to start to see more visible momentum? I know you saw some modest end of period growth in the aggregate, but just curious on your thoughts from here and what you're seeing in terms of overall demand.

    我想大多數問題都已經被問過並得到解答了。但是,約翰,我知道,由於你今年早些時候採取的一些行動,今年的貸款成長數字可能出現了一些波動。我們是否正處於可以期待看到更明顯勢頭的階段?我知道您看到了總體上期末的一些適度增長,但我只是好奇您現在的想法以及您所看到的整體需求情況。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Scott, just to clarify, are you talking about end of the period were you talking about deposits there or loans or you're -- just in general?

    斯科特,只是為了澄清一下,您說的是期末,還是談論那裡的存款或貸款,或者您 - 只是一般而言?

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • No. Loans.

    不。貸款。

  • John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I see. Got it. Okay. Yeah. So I think we had an opportunity in the second quarter as we had already talked about. And so I think that was something that we found attractive and acted on. It's obviously given us a benefit here in the third quarter.

    我懂了。知道了。好的。是的。所以我認為我們在第二季有機會,正如我們已經討論過的。所以我認為這是我們認為有吸引力的事情,我們採取了行動。這顯然為我們第三季帶來了好處。

  • I don't see anything in particular on the horizon for that. But obviously, we're always looking at opportunities as they come about. And so it's just something that we keep a pulse on. But we're focused, obviously, on the organic side, growing accounts, making sure we're leaning into growth with our clients and that sort of thing.

    我看不到這方面有什麼特別的進展。但顯然,我們總是在尋找出現的機會。所以這只是我們關注的事情。但顯然,我們專注於有機方面,增加帳戶,確保我們與客戶一起實現成長等等。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America. Ebrahim, perhaps your line is on mute?

    美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。易卜拉欣,也許你的線處於靜音狀態?

  • My apologies, there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Andersen, I turn the call back over to you.

    抱歉,目前沒有其他問題。安德森先生,我把電話轉回給您。

  • George Andersen - Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

    George Andersen - Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, John-Louis, and thank you to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. You may now disconnect the call.

    謝謝你,約翰路易斯,也謝謝今天早上參加我們電話會議的所有人。如果您有任何後續問題,請聯絡投資者關係部門。您現在可以掛斷電話了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。