美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 AM Central Time.

本次通話將被錄音，並於今天中部時間上午 11:00 左右開始提供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

現在，我將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。

Thank you, Julianne, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by our President and New Chief Executive Officer, Gunjan Kedia; and Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, John Stern. In a moment, Gunjan and John will be referencing a slide presentation together with their prepared remarks.

謝謝你，茱麗安，大家早安。今天，與我們一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼新任首席執行官 Gunjan Kedia；以及高級執行副總裁兼首席財務官約翰·斯特恩 (John Stern)。稍後，Gunjan 和 John 將參考幻燈片演示並發表他們準備好的發言。

A copy of the presentation, our press release and all supplemental analyst schedules can be found on our website at ir.usbank.com. Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty.

簡報、新聞稿和所有補充分析師時間表的副本可在我們的網站 ir.usbank.com 上找到。請注意，今天電話會議中做出的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。

Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page 2 of today's earnings presentation, our press release and reports on file with the SEC. Following Gunjan and John's prepared remarks, we will be happy to take any questions that you have.

今天的收益報告第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中描述了可能嚴重改變我們當前前瞻性假設的因素。在 Gunjan 和 John 發表完準備好的演講後，我們將很樂意回答您的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Gunjan.

現在我會把電話轉給 Gunjan。

Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. As we begin the call today, I want to first take a moment to acknowledge the loss of our friend and colleague, Terry Dolan, who most recently served as our Chief Administration Officer. We have truly appreciated the outpouring of support we have received from the investment community since this tragic passing last month, and our thoughts remain with his friends and family.

謝謝你，喬治，大家早安。今天我們開始電話會議時，我想先花點時間對我們失去的朋友和同事特里·多蘭 (Terry Dolan) 表示哀悼，他最近擔任我們的首席行政官。自從上個月他不幸去世以來，我們非常感謝投資界給予我們的大力支持，我們始終與他的朋友和家人同在。

If I could turn your attention to slide 3. In the first quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.03 and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 17.5%. We are pleased with the progress we have made on our strategic priorities and achieved year-over-year positive operating leverage of 270 basis points this quarter on an adjusted basis.

請您看投影片 3。第一季度，我們報告每股收益為 1.03 美元，有形普通股權益回報率為 17.5%。我們對策略重點所取得的進展感到滿意，本季經調整後的營運槓桿較去年同期上升了 270 個基點。

Our continued discipline on expenses, good momentum across our fee businesses and modest margin expansion all contributed to us achieving our third consecutive quarter of revenues outpacing expenses on an adjusted basis. Importantly, our credit quality and capital levels are strong. This quarter, our net charge-off ratio improved modestly, and we continued to build capital.

我們對費用的持續控制、費用業務的良好發展勢頭以及適度的利潤率擴張，都促使我們連續第三個季度實現了調整後收入超過支出。重要的是，我們的信用品質和資本水準很高。本季度，我們的淨沖銷率略有改善，我們繼續累積資本。

We are in an environment of intense market and economic volatility. However, our management team has successfully navigated through a wide range of conditions over the years, and we are prepared for a variety of possible scenarios. Our consistent and deep culture of risk management will continue to be a competitive advantage as we go forward.

我們正處於市場和經濟劇烈波動的環境。然而，我們的管理團隊多年來已經成功應對了各種各樣的情況，並且我們已經為各種可能的情況做好了準備。我們一貫而深厚的風險管理文化將繼續成為我們前進的競爭優勢。

Slide 4 is a snapshot of U.S. Bancorp today. As the largest non-G-SIB bank in the country, we operate at considerable scale in the markets we serve. Our franchise is quite unique. Fee income represents 41% of total net revenue and is driven by an extensive and diversified product set.

幻燈片 4 是美國合眾銀行今天的快照。作為國內最大的非G-SIB銀行，我們在所服務的市場中擁有相當大的營運規模。我們的特許經營權非常獨特。費用收入佔總淨收入的 41%，由廣泛而多樣化的產品組合推動。

Today, 2/3 of our businesses operate nationally through an optimized digital and physical distribution model. Our client base of almost 15 million clients has strong loyalty and depth with us. These advantages are important to our unique and ongoing growth story.

如今，我們的三分之二的業務透過優化的數位和實體分銷模式在全國範圍內運作。我們的客戶群已擁有近 1500 萬客戶，對我們保持極高的忠誠度和深度。這些優勢對於我們獨特且持續的成長故事至關重要。

I'll turn you to slide 5. As I step into my role as Chief Executive Officer of U.S. Bancorp, I want to reaffirm my commitment to our medium-term targets. The macroeconomic backdrop has shifted since our Investor Day in September, and I acknowledge that there is still considerable uncertainty to the outlook. However, a wide range of plausible forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios still support our targets.

我把你們翻到第 5 張投影片。當我接任美國合眾銀行執行長一職時，我想重申我對中期目標的承諾。自九月投資者日以來，宏觀經濟背景發生了變化，我承認前景仍然存在相當大的不確定性。然而，各種合理的前瞻性宏觀經濟情景仍支持我們的目標。

I have three immediate strategic priorities to achieve our goals: tightly manage our expenses, drive organic growth across our business and transform our payments business. It is important to emphasize that while we are focused on organic growth, we remain deeply committed to high returns and a disciplined risk-managed culture.

為實現我們的目標，我有三個當務之急：嚴格管理我們的開支、推動整個業務的有機成長以及轉變我們的支付業務。值得強調的是，雖然我們專注於有機成長，但我們仍然致力於高回報和嚴格的風險管理文化。

Slide 6 gives you more color on our expense management program. We have been actively focused on reducing expenses since early 2024. Our investment spend has stabilized and is increasingly shifting to growth-oriented investments. In addition, we are structurally driving productivity through all our operations.

投影片 6 向您詳細介紹了我們的費用管理計畫。自 2024 年初以來，我們一直積極致力於削減開支。我們的投資支出已經穩定下來，並且越來越多地轉向成長型投資。此外，我們正在透過所有營運從結構上推動生產力。

As the chart on the left shows, we have now delivered six consecutive quarters of expense discipline on an adjusted basis. This has been an important funding mechanism for organic growth and a significant driver of the positive operating leverage we have delivered.

如左圖所示，我們現在已經連續六個季度在調整後實現了費用控制。這是有機成長的重要融資機制，也是我們實現積極經營槓桿的重要驅動力。

On the right are our four expense programs. These are well underway. These initiatives are designed to improve sustainable productivity and balance that with high-quality client service and operating effectiveness. Notably, we have additional levers we can pull and are watching the revenue environment closely to appropriately balance and flex our expense programs.

右邊是我們的四個費用方案。這些工作正在順利進行中。這些措施旨在提高永續生產力，並與高品質的客戶服務和營運效率取得平衡。值得注意的是，我們擁有可以利用的額外槓桿，並且正在密切關注收入環境，以適當平衡和調整我們的支出計劃。

On slide 7, our diversified mix of fee-generating businesses is truly a competitive advantage for us. On the left, we are disaggregating the dynamics of our fee growth last year. Confidence in our medium-term fee growth target is supported by the strength we have in our core businesses like Trust and Investment Management and Capital Markets Fee businesses, as well as the execution momentum we have across our other organic growth initiatives.

在第 7 張投影片上，我們多元化的收費業務組合確實是我們的競爭優勢。左側，我們正在分解去年費用成長的動態。我們對中期費用成長目標的信心源於我們在信託和投資管理以及資本市場費用業務等核心業務方面的實力，以及我們在其他有機成長計劃中的執行勢頭。

Headwinds around consumer fees and the sale of our ATM cash provisioning business are also dissipating and supports stronger fee growth going forward. We are focused on bringing a broad range of products and digital capabilities to deepen relationships with our clients and expand our reach through partnerships.

消費者費用和 ATM 現金供應業務出售的不利因素也正在消散，並支持未來費用更強勁的成長。我們致力於提供廣泛的產品和數位功能，以加深與客戶的關係並透過合作擴大我們的影響力。

If we move to slide 8. We have an opportunity to do better with our payments businesses. Money movement capabilities are critical to anchoring client relationships, and we are committed to building a vibrant payments franchise.

如果我們移到投影片 8。我們有機會讓我們的支付業務做得更好。資金流動能力對於鞏固客戶關係至關重要，我們致力於打造充滿活力的支付特許經營權。

Our payments business drives both fee income as well as net interest income with $42 billion in attractive average loan balances. Net interest income is an important part of our payment story. As you can see on the left, we have grown our average loan balances in line with or better than the industry. Our loan growth has benefited from a range of competitive products that offer quite attractive value proposition, especially to borrowers.

我們的支付業務帶來了費用收入和淨利息收入，平均貸款餘額達到 420 億美元。淨利息收入是我們支付故事的重要組成部分。正如您在左側看到的，我們的平均貸款餘額增長與行業持平或更好。我們的貸款成長得益於一系列具有競爭力的產品，這些產品提供了相當有吸引力的價值主張，尤其是對借款人來說。

Total purchase volumes across all of our payments businesses were at $925 billion this quarter for the trailing 12-month period. The growth here could be stronger, and our target is to be more in line with the market. We have a greater focus on the affluent customer and products like Bank Smartly were designed specifically to target this segment.

本季度，我們所有支付業務的過去 12 個月總購買量達到 9,250 億美元。這裡的成長可能會更強勁，我們的目標是更符合市場。我們更專注於富裕客戶，像 Bank Smartly 這樣的產品就是專門針對這群人而設計的。

As I look ahead, with two new leaders in place since the start of the new year, we are actively redeploying expense saves to scale up our execution, our sales and marketing efforts in payments. Some areas of focus are California, where our acquisition of Union Bank has given us access to a large and affluent consumer and small business base; and the expansion of our Elan franchise, which currently serves over 1,200 financial institutions across the US.

展望未來，自新年伊始，兩位新領導人就職後，我們正在積極重新部署節省下來的開支，以擴大我們在支付方面的執行力、銷售和行銷力度。我們重點關注的地區包括加州，透過收購聯合銀行，我們得以接觸到該州龐大而富裕的消費者和小型企業群體；以及我們 Elan 特許經營權的擴張，目前該特許經營權為美國 1,200 多家金融機構提供服務。

Finally, while our Merchant Acquiring business contributes just over 5% of total U.S. Bank revenue, it is a unique part of our portfolio and I know one that garners a lot of attention from the investment community as it is a key differentiator for the company.

最後，雖然我們的商家收單業務僅占美國銀行總收入的 5% 多一點，但它是我們投資組合中一個獨特的部分，而且我知道它引起了投資界的廣泛關注，因為它是公司的關鍵差異化因素。

We are in the middle of a multiyear transformation here to reposition this business in three ways. The first is greater interconnectivity across the bank. The second is the sharper focus on five industry verticals. And the third is the strategic shift to a tech-led operating model that is more consistent with the buying behavior of consumers today.

我們正處於多年的轉型期，將透過三種方式重新定位這項業務。一是加強銀行間的互聯互通。二是更加聚焦五大垂直產業。第三是策略轉向以科技為主導的營運模式，這種模式更符合當今消費者的購買行為。

Tech-led represents over 1/3 of total Merchant Processing revenue, and most of our revenue generation is now concentrated in our five targeted verticals. We have most recently moved up to number five in Nielsen's 2025 report ranking for processing volume, and we do have more room to grow here. Our medium-term fee growth targets for the overall bank expect a mid-single-digit growth rates for payments with more upside beyond that time frame.

技術主導的收入佔商家處理總收入的 1/3 以上，我們大部分的收入來源目前集中在我們的五個目標垂直領域。我們最近在尼爾森 2025 年報告排名中上升至處理量第五位，而且我們確實還有更大的成長空間。我們對整個銀行的中期費用成長目標預計為中等個位數成長率，並且在此時間範圍之後還有更大的上升空間。

Finally, before I hand it over to John, I want to highlight a simpler management structure on slide 9. We are very fortunate to have a deep management bench, and I'm confident we will execute with urgency on our priorities.

最後，在交給約翰之前，我想先強調一下投影片 9 上更簡單的管理結構。我們非常幸運擁有一支強大的管理團隊，我相信我們將緊急執行我們的優先事項。

Now let me turn the call over to John, who will provide more detail on the quarter as well as forward-looking guidance.

現在，讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊以及前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Gunjan. If you turn to slide 10, I'll start with some highlights for the quarter, followed by a discussion of first quarter earnings trends.

謝謝，Gunjan。如果您翻到第 10 張投影片，我將首先介紹本季的一些亮點，然後討論第一季的獲利趨勢。

In the first quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.03, with year-over-year top line revenue growth and disciplined expense management. On the right-hand side of this slide, you can see that most credit quality metrics and capital levels improved both sequentially and year over year. This quarter, a more favorable portfolio mix and improved asset quality resulted in a small reserve release of $10 million. The allowance this quarter also included some incremental qualitative reserves to reflect increased tariff-induced macroeconomic uncertainty.

第一季度，我們報告每股收益為 1.03 美元，營業收入較去年同期成長，費用管理也更加嚴格。在這張投影片的右側，您可以看到大多數信用品質指標和資本水準都比上一季和上一年有所提高。本季度，更有利的投資組合和改善的資產品質導致釋放了 1000 萬美元的小額儲備金。本季的配額還包括一些增量定性儲備，以反映關稅引起的宏觀經濟不確定性的增加。

Our loan portfolio is well diversified and we are appropriately reserved and prepared for a wide range of potentially adverse macroeconomic conditions. Our CET1 capital ratio increased 20 basis points to 10.8% this quarter, as we continue to -- ongoing capital accretion with modest share repurchases. Our tangible book value per share was $25.64 at March 31, up 13.8% year over year.

我們的貸款組合非常多樣化，並且我們為各種潛在的不利宏觀經濟條件做好了適當的儲備和準備。本季度，我們的 CET1 資本比率增加了 20 個基點，達到 10.8%，因為我們繼續透過適度的股票回購來增加資本。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的每股有形帳面價值為 25.64 美元，年增 13.8%。

Slide 11 provides key performance metrics. Our return on average assets and net interest margin improved linked quarter from solid financial performance, continued expense discipline and efficient balance sheet management.

投影片 11 提供了關鍵績效指標。由於財務表現穩健、費用控制持續嚴格以及資產負債表管理有效，我們的平均資產回報率和淨息差環比有所改善。

Slide 12 provides a balance sheet summary. Total average deposits decreased 1.1% on a linked quarter basis to $507 billion, in line with seasonal patterns and continued prioritization of relationship-based deposits and pricing discipline. Both our mid-40s cumulative deposit beta and percentage of non-interest-bearing to total deposits of approximately 16% remain in line with expectations.

投影片 12 提供了資產負債表摘要。總平均存款環比下降 1.1% 至 5,070 億美元，符合季節性模式，並繼續優先考慮基於關係的存款和定價紀律。我們的 40 多歲的累積存款貝塔係數和非利息存款佔總存款的百分比約為 16%，均符合預期。

Average loans totaled $379 million, a modest increase of 0.9% on a linked quarter basis, driven by commercial lending initiatives that were partially offset by higher paydowns within our Commercial Real Estate and -- portfolio and continued runoff of auto loans.

平均貸款總額為 3.79 億美元，環比小幅增長 0.9%，這主要得益於商業貸款計劃，但被我們商業房地產和投資組合中更高的還款額以及汽車貸款的持續減少部分抵消。

At March 31, the ending balance on our investment portfolio was flat at $171 billion. This quarter, the average yield across both our investment portfolio and loan book were impacted by lower short-end rates, which more than offset the benefits of fixed asset repricing and improved asset mix.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的投資組合的期末餘額持平於 1,710 億美元。本季度，我們的投資組合和貸款帳簿的平均收益率受到短期利率下降的影響，這遠遠抵消了固定資產重新定價和資產組合改善的好處。

Turning to slide 13. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $4.12 billion, relatively stable to the fourth quarter after adjusting for two fewer days, as expected.

翻到第 13 張投影片。以完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入總計 41.2 億美元，在調整了兩天後與第四季度保持相對穩定，符合預期。

Slide 14 highlights trends in non-interest income. Noninterest income totaled $2.8 billion, an increase of 5.0% on a year-over-year basis, driven by payments and trust and investment management fees. Linked quarter revenue was impacted by seasonal declines in both Payment Services and Other revenue, while our decline in Trust and Investment Management fees resulted from less favorable market conditions.

幻燈片 14 重點介紹了非利息收入的趨勢。非利息收入總計 28 億美元，年增 5.0%，主要受支付以及信託和投資管理費的推動。季度收入受到支付服務和其他收入季節性下降的影響，而信託和投資管理費用的下降則是由於市場條件較不利。

Turning to slide 15. Noninterest expense for the quarter totaled $4.2 billion, stable with adjusted non-interest expense in the fourth quarter and consistent with our previous guidance. Continued expense discipline and operational efficiencies partially offset seasonal increases in performance-based incentives and merit, as well as a higher charitable foundation contribution.

翻到第 15 張投影片。本季非利息支出總計 42 億美元，與第四季度調整後的非利息支出保持穩定，並與我們先前的預期一致。持續的費用控制和營運效率部分抵消了基於績效的激勵和績效的季節性增長，以及更高的慈善基金會捐款。

Slide 16 highlights our credit quality performance on a linked quarter and year-over-year basis. Our ratio of non-performing assets to loans and other real estate was 0.5% at March 31, an improvement from the previous quarter and a year ago. The first quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.59% improved 1 basis point linked quarter, and our allowance for credit losses totaled $7.9 billion or 2.07% of period-end loans at March 31.

投影片 16 重點介紹了我們按季度和按年計算的信用品質表現。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為 0.5%，較上一季及去年同期有所改善。第一季淨沖銷率為 0.59%，季比改善了 1 個基點，截至 3 月 31 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 79 億美元，佔期末貸款的 2.07%。

On slide 17, our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio increased 20 basis points to 10.8% as of March 31, net of distributions. Our CET1 ratio, including AOCI, was 8.8%. During the quarter, we completed $100 million of share repurchases. And moving forward, we expect the level and pace of buybacks to be modest as we balance continued capital accretion with distributions and further evaluate broader macroeconomic conditions.

在投影片 17 中，扣除分配後，截至 3 月 31 日，我們的普通股一級資本比率增加了 20 個基點，達到 10.8%。我們的 CET1 比率（包括 AOCI）為 8.8%。本季度，我們完成了 1 億美元的股票回購。展望未來，我們預期回購的水平和速度將會適度，因為我們要平衡持續的資本增值與分配，並進一步評估更廣泛的宏觀經濟狀況。

Turning to Slight 18. We wanted to provide some additional clarity on our projected balance sheet trajectory and the drivers of net interest margin expansion. These drivers are supportive of our medium-term target. As the slide shows, we do not expect to become a Category II bank before 2027.

轉向輕微 18。我們希望對預計的資產負債表走勢和淨利差擴大的驅動因素提供更清晰的說明。這些驅動因素支持我們的中期目標。如幻燈片所示，我們預計在 2027 年之前不會成為 II 類銀行。

Further, we expect that our trajectory will benefit from an improved asset mix, fixed asset repricing and and continued optimization of our funding mix. The timing and, ultimately, where we land within the range provided will depend on several factors, including the path of interest rates and loan growth.

此外，我們預計我們的發展軌跡將受益於資產組合的改善、固定資產重新定價以及融資組合的持續最佳化。我們在規定的範圍內最終達到的時機和位置將取決於幾個因素，包括利率和貸款成長的軌跡。

Moving to slide 19. Our first quarter results met the guidance we provided in mid-January. We are monitoring the ongoing discussions around tariffs and recognize that uncertainties remain. I'll now provide second quarter and full year 2025 forward-looking guidance based on our current expectations.

移至投影片 19。我們第一季的業績達到了我們在一月中旬提供的預期。我們正在關注有關關稅的持續討論，並認識到仍然存在不確定性。我現在將根據我們目前的預期提供 2025 年第二季和全年的前瞻性指引。

Starting with the second quarter 2025 guidance. We expect net interest income for the second quarter on a fully taxable equivalent basis to be in the range of $4.1 billion to $4.2 billion. Total non-interest income is expected to be approximately $2.9 billion. We expect total non-interest expense to be $4.2 billion or lower in the second quarter. And we expect to deliver positive operating leverage in the second quarter of 200 basis points or more on a year-over-year adjusted basis.

從 2025 年第二季指導開始。我們預計第二季以完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入將在 41 億美元至 42 億美元之間。預計非利息總收入約 29 億美元。我們預計第二季非利息總支出將達到或低於 42 億美元。我們預計第二季的營運槓桿將比去年同期調整後高出 200 個基點或更多。

I'll now provide full year 2025 guidance, which is consistent with our previous guidance. Total net revenue growth on an adjusted basis is estimated to be in the range of 3% to 5% compared to the full year 2024. We expect to achieve positive operating leverage of greater than 200 basis points for the full year.

我現在將提供 2025 年全年指導，這與我們之前的指導一致。經調整後的總淨收入成長率預計與 2024 年全年相比在 3% 至 5% 之間。我們預計全年營運槓桿將達到200個基點以上。

Slide 20 shows that we have made measurable progress toward achieving our medium-term targets. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, we have improved both our profitability and efficiency ratios and have continued to enhance our capital positioning and operating leverage trajectory. We have more work to do, but we are pleased with our progress to date.

幻燈片 20 顯示我們在實現中期目標方面取得了可衡量的進展。與 2024 年第一季相比，我們的獲利能力和效率比率均有所提高，並且我們的資本配置和經營槓桿軌跡繼續增強。我們還有很多工作要做，但我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意。

I'll now hand it back over to Gunjan for closing remarks.

現在我將發言權交還給 Gunjan 做最後發言。

Thank you, John. Let me close on slide 21. I am excited to lead our exceptional bank into the future. Over the last two years, we have been focused on integrating our Union Bank franchise and then swiftly building back capital after the banking failures of 2023.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我以第 21 張投影片作為結束。我很高興能夠帶領我們卓越的銀行走向未來。在過去的兩年裡，我們一直致力於整合我們的聯合銀行特許經營權，然後在 2023 年銀行倒閉後迅速恢復資本。

We are now focused on organic growth. And our momentum on expenses is timely as we navigate a highly uncertain environment, and that gives us strategic flexibility. Moving forward, my top priority is to restore investor confidence in our story and our execution.

我們現在專注於有機成長。當我們應對高度不確定的環境時，我們在支出方面的勢頭是及時的，這為我們提供了戰略靈活性。展望未來，我的首要任務是恢復投資人對我們的故事和執行力的信心。

Finally, on behalf of our U.S. Bank team, I want to sincerely thank Andy Cecere for his 40-plus years of thoughtful, dedicated and steady leadership. We all wish Andy well in his retirement.

最後，我謹代表美國銀行團隊，真誠感謝安迪·塞塞爾 40 多年來深思熟慮、盡職盡責、穩健的領導。我們都祝安迪退休後一切順利。

With that, we will now open the call for questions.

現在，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Gerard Cassidy，RBC Capital Markets。

Gunjan and John, before I asked my question, on behalf of all of the bank analysts and the investment community, I really want to offer our sincere condolences about Terry's tragic death. Not only will he be missed by his family and all his colleagues at U.S. Bancorp, he'd be missed by everybody on this call and throughout the investment community. All of us will keep him and his family in our thoughts and prayers.

岡詹和約翰，在我提出問題之前，我謹代表所有銀行分析師和投資界，對特里的不幸去世表示誠摯的哀悼。不僅他的家人和美國合眾銀行的所有同事都會懷念他，參加電話會議的每個人以及整個投資界的所有人都會懷念他。我們所有人都會在心中緬懷他和他的家人，並為他們祈禱。

On the question, John, can you go back to your comments about the yields in the portfolios, how you referenced that the earning asset yields came down for the quarter. And you pointed out, I think, on slide 12 in your comments that the impact of lower short-term rates more than offset the benefits of the repricing of fixed rate assets. What's the ideal interest rate environment for U.S. Bancorp in your view?

關於這個問題，約翰，您能否回到您對投資組合收益率的評論，您是如何提到本季度生息資產收益率下降的。我認為，您在評論的第 12 張投影片中指出，較低的短期利率的影響遠遠抵消了固定利率資產重新定價的好處。您認為美國合眾銀行的理想利率環境是如何的？

Sure, Gerard. And first of all, thank you for those comments. They mean a lot, and we appreciate that very much. On to your question on the yields within the portfolio and ideal positioning and things like that, just more from a technical standpoint, the investment portfolio, about half of the AFS book or about just over 1/4 of the book in total is floating rate in nature. Of course, we have that -- a lot of hedges in place and to protect from shocks on higher rates, to protect capital in that sense.

當然，杰拉德。首先，感謝您的評論。它們意義重大，我們對此非常感激。關於您關於投資組合收益率和理想定位等問題，從技術角度來看，投資組合中大約一半的 AFS 帳簿或總帳簿的 1/4 多一點本質上是浮動利率。當然，我們已經採取了許多對沖措施，以防止利率上升帶來的衝擊，從而保護資本。

So that's the positioning for it. That positioning, along with how we manage the rest of the balance sheet, provide us how we think about interest rate sensitivity and how we want to position the bank from interest rate shock.

這就是它的定位。這種定位，以及我們如何管理資產負債表的其餘部分，為我們提供瞭如何看待利率敏感性以及我們如何讓銀行免受利率衝擊。

So today, even though the investment portfolio has some mix towards floating rate, we have other things that can offset that, such as received fixed swaps on the commercial loans, as an example. And so when you put it all together, we have a -- what we'd like to have is a neutral interest rate risk position on the balance sheet neutral to shocks.

因此，今天，儘管投資組合中有一些浮動利率的成分，但我們還有其他東西可以抵消這一點，例如商業貸款的固定掉期。所以，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們就有了一個——我們希望在資產負債表上有一個中性的利率風險頭寸，對衝擊保持中立。

Now ideally, we would like to see a more upward sloping curve. That will be more beneficial to us. The lower short-end rates would help our funding position, and longer and higher -- longer-term rates will help with the repricing of our fixed rate assets. So those are kind of the puts and takes as we think about the balance sheet.

現在理想情況下，我們希望看到一條更向上傾斜的曲線。這對我們更有利。較低的短期利率將有助於我們的融資狀況，而較長時間和較高的長期利率將有助於我們固定利率資產的重新定價。因此，當我們考慮資產負債表時，這些就是投入和產出。

I appreciate that, John. And then as a follow-up, you talked about your capital levels, your CET1 ratios, especially including the AOCI at 8.8%, which, of course, is above your required level. And you're still being cautious on the buybacks.

我很感激，約翰。然後作為後續問題，您談到了您的資本水平、您的 CET1 比率，特別是包括 8.8% 的 AOCI，這當然高於您的要求水平。您對於回購仍持謹慎態度。

Historically, as you all know, you folks have traditionally given back 70% to 80% of annual earnings in buybacks and dividends. What kind of environment will we need to see for you guys to be comfortable to get back into that kind of 70% to 80% return of earnings to shareholders in buybacks and dividends?

從歷史上看，眾所周知，你們傳統上會將 70% 到 80% 的年度收益以回購和分紅的方式返還。我們需要看到什麼樣的環境才能讓你們安心地透過回購和股利重新實現 70% 到 80% 的股東收益回報？

Sure. So I think as we talked about at Investor Day and we talked about our capital ratio and where it needs to be, we targeted approximately 10% on a Category II basis, which you just cited that the ratio where we're at -- and we still are awaiting capital rules and things like that. Obviously, there's more favorability there with the regulatory environment. But we are -- as we get closer, we anticipate that we would increase our share repurchases as we approach and achieve that -- approximately that 10% capital level. And the numbers that you cite, that 70%, 80%, that's a number that we provided to you on a full payback in our Investor Day, and that is consistent with our thinking.

當然。因此，我認為，正如我們在投資者日討論的那樣，我們討論了我們的資本比率以及它需要達到的水平，我們在第二類基礎上的目標是大約 10%，你剛才提到了我們現在的比率——我們仍在等待資本規則和類似的東西。顯然，那裡的監管環境更加有利。但是，隨著我們越來越接近目標，我們預計我們將增加股票回購，以達到約 10% 的資本水準。您引用的數字，70%、80%，是我們在投資者日向您提供的全額回報的數字，這與我們的想法一致。

Great. And Andy, good luck in retirement. I wish a lot of future success.

偉大的。祝安迪退休後一切順利。我祝福未來更大的成功。

Thanks, Gerard.

謝謝，傑拉德。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

I guess, first of all, I'd echo Gerard's sentiments. Maybe, John, within the 3% to 5% full year revenue growth target, any change in sort of the expected balance between NII and fees? I know you talked previously about sort of mid-single-digit fee growth aspiration for the year. So I mean just within your response, if you could sort of speak to any updates on main fee drivers throughout the year with a particular emphasis on the payments momentum that you would see developing, if possible.

我想，首先，我會贊同傑拉德的觀點。約翰，也許在 3% 到 5% 的全年收入成長目標內，NII 和費用之間的預期平衡會發生任何變化？我知道您之前談到今年費用成長達到中等個位數的願望。所以我的意思是，在您的回答中，您是否可以談談全年主要費用驅動因素的任何更新，並特別強調您所看到的發展支付勢頭，如果可能的話。

Sure. So thanks, Scott. First of all, you're right, no change to our guidance, 3% to 5% is our expectation. And we acknowledge, of course, that the market is uncertain. There's things in the tariff discussions that everyone is watching.

當然。所以謝謝你，斯科特。首先，您說得對，我們的指導沒有變化，我們的預期是 3% 到 5%。當然，我們承認市場是不確定的。關稅討論中有一些內容受到大家的關注。

We acknowledge that. But we still feel good about our revenues and our ability to execute. On the interest income side, we shared a slide in terms of how we see a path of how net interest margin will grow, and that starts with fixed asset repricing and better mix in terms of our loan book.

我們承認這一點。但我們仍然對我們的收入和執行能力感到滿意。在利息收入方面，我們分享了一張投影片，介紹了我們如何看待淨利差的成長路徑，這始於固定資產重新定價和貸款帳簿的更好組合。

On the fee side of things, we still believe the mid-single digits is an appropriate way to think about fee growth for the year. Gunjan commented on the payment side of things, and we have good initiatives beyond that as well as in other parts like Capital Markets and Trust and Investment Management and all these other sorts of things.

從費用來看，我們仍然認為中等個位數是考慮今年費用成長的合適方法。Gunjan 對支付方面發表了評論，除此之外，我們在資本市場、信託和投資管理等其他領域也有一些很好的舉措。

And then importantly, I know you didn't ask, but expense, we have a lot of levers there as well which will help us achieve operating leverage that we have talked about in terms of 200 basis points or more for the full year. So we understand the market has changed, but our clients are resilient, and we have a lot of confidence in our ability to execute.

然後重要的是，我知道你沒有問，但是費用，我們也有很多槓桿，這將幫助我們實現我們談到的全年 200 個基點或更高的營運槓桿。因此，我們理解市場已經發生了變化，但我們的客戶具有韌性，我們對我們的執行能力充滿信心。

Okay. Great. And then maybe sort of a top level one. Can you sort of address what you're seeing just in terms of some of the consumer spending patterns. I mean, for your size, just given the payments business, you see sort of an outsized amount of spending. Just curious what changes, if any, you've seen since this all -- all this uncertainty really ramped up, and if there's been any change in particular since early April when things really began to hit it in a (inaudible)

好的。偉大的。然後可能就是頂級的了。您能否從一些消費者支出模式的角度談談您所看到的情況？我的意思是，就你們的規模而言，僅考慮支付業務，你就會看到巨額的支出。我只是好奇，自從這一切發生以來，你看到了什麼變化（如果有的話）——所有這些不確定性真的加劇了，以及自從 4 月初事情真正開始受到影響以來，是否有任何變化（聽不清楚）

Scott, let me start there. We saw a modest pullback in consumer spending early in the year, and that was very weather-related. And it has stabilized towards the end of March. We are watching the downward trend in consumer sentiment, but not seeing that in our spend patterns.

史考特，讓我從這裡開始。我們看到今年年初消費者支出略有回落，這與天氣有很大關係。到三月底，這一情況已經趨於穩定。我們注意到消費者信心呈下降趨勢，但我們的消費模式卻沒有出現這種情況。

Our mix does tilt towards the more affluent customer and towards non-discretionary everyday spend pattern. So that could be an explanation, but we are seeing steady consumer spend patterns in the first quarter.

我們的產品組合確實傾向於較富裕的客戶和非自由支配的日常消費模式。這可能是個解釋，但我們看到第一季的消費者支出模式穩定。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald），Truist Securities。

Gunjan, I wanted to ask you a little bit bigger picture on the payments business. You've acknowledged it's been a little bit disappointing relative to what you see as its potential. Did we collectively have too high expectations for payments for the last couple of years? Or is it a question of needing to get further along in this shift towards the tech-enabled in order to better align the business with the industry dynamics?

Gunjan，我想問您一些有關支付業務的更宏觀的問題。您承認，相對於您所看到的潛力而言，它有點令人失望。過去幾年，我們對付款的期望是否過高？或者，是否需要在向技術支援的轉變中取得進一步進展，以便更好地使業務與行業動態保持一致？

John, it is a very good question. It's not anchoring too high. The industry is quite attractive. The way we manage our business is quite focused on margins. So I think the right way to think about our personal aspirations is to have a very nice balance of margin and growth.

約翰，這是一個非常好的問題。這不是錨定得太高了。這個行業相當有吸引力。我們管理業務的方式非常注重利潤。因此，我認為思考個人抱負的正確方法是在利潤和成長之間取得良好的平衡。

What we are seeing here is that the balance sheet side, the NII side of the payments business, is actually very attractive and it is tracking with the industry. And our product offerings historically has been quite attractive for the border segment.

我們在這裡看到的是，資產負債表方面，支付業務的 NII 方面實際上非常有吸引力，並且正在追蹤行業發展。從歷史上看，我們提供的產品對於邊境市場來說相當有吸引力。

So we like that. We want to continue that. We are leaning in on also the affluent transactor segment with a new lineup of products that is attractive to them, so we can also augment the fee growth. So our expectation would be that we would be in line with the market volumes, and we've maintained our margin, and it will be a very healthy accretive sort of trajectory for the overall payments business for us.

所以我們喜歡這樣。我們希望繼續這樣做。我們也傾向於向富裕的交易者群體推出一系列對他們有吸引力的新產品，因此我們也可以促進費用的成長。因此，我們的預期是，我們將與市場規模保持一致，並保持我們的利潤率，這對我們的整體支付業務來說將是一個非常健康的增值軌跡。

And then, of course, I always want to remind you that the reason we are in the payments is not because it's a stand-alone attractive business, it's a very very attractive product to anchor our client relationships across all banking products. So that's sort of our expectation for payments.

當然，我一直想提醒大家，我們涉足支付領域並不是因為它是一項獨立的、有吸引力的業務，而是一種非常有吸引力的產品，可以鞏固我們在所有銀行產品中的客戶關係。這就是我們對付款的期望。

Okay. Great. And then, John, a question on expenses. You can put this in the category of no good deed goes uncriticized. You've done a great job keeping quarterly expenses flat for a bunch of quarters in a row now. Can you just remind us why that still enables you to invest enough to play offense against some aggressive payments competitors and a bunch of offense-minded banks that are expanding throughout the country?

好的。偉大的。然後，約翰，關於費用的問題。你可以把這歸類為「善有善報，惡有惡報」的範疇。您已經出色地完成了工作，連續多個季度保持季度支出平穩。您能否提醒我們，為什麼這仍然使您能夠投入足夠的資金來對抗一些激進的支付競爭對手和一些正在全國範圍內擴張的具有進攻意識的銀行？

Well, I think the beauty of our expense programs is we've been able to take a lot of the savings that we've had and invested in and continue to invest. John, we talked at Investor Day about how our investment has -- over the years has gone more from defense and building out all the infrastructure needed to more offense or more 2/3 offense versus 1/3 defense. When we think about our CapEx levels, which is in that kind of that $1.25 billion, we have OpEx and tech -- or total tech amount in that kind of that $2 billion to $2.5 billion on on an annual basis.

嗯，我認為我們的支出計劃的優點在於，我們能夠利用我們已有的、已投資的大量儲蓄並繼續進行投資。約翰，我們在投資者日談到了我們的投資——多年來，我們的投資已經從防守轉向了建設所有必要的基礎設施，轉向了進攻，或者說是 2/3 進攻而不是 1/3 防守。當我們考慮我們的資本支出水準時，也就是 12.5 億美元，我們的營運支出和技術支出 - 或者說每年的總技術支出在 20 億到 25 億美元之間。

And so we continue to invest in all the products and capabilities that Gunjan has been talking about. And so we feel really good about the levers that we have, and that's been part of our plan, is to take savings and continue to invest and be open-minded about it.

因此，我們將繼續投資 Gunjan 所談論的所有產品和功能。因此，我們對所擁有的槓桿感到非常滿意，這也是我們計劃的一部分，即利用儲蓄繼續投資，並對此持開放態度。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

And I also thank you, Gerard, for saying that. And team, I will always remember Terry's big smile and warm embrace. And Andy, so all the best for you in your retirement, and I hope you enjoy every moment.

我也感謝傑拉德說出這些話。和團隊一起，我將永遠記得特里的燦爛笑容和溫暖的擁抱。安迪，祝你退休後一切順利，享受退休後的每一刻。

Back to business. Gunjan, just a follow-up to the last question. When we think about the market here that you're trying to match the growth rate of, maybe you could give us a little bit of an understanding as to what market we're talking about.

回歸正題。Gunjan，這只是對上一個問題的後續答案。當我們考慮您試圖匹配的成長率的市場時，也許您可以讓我們稍微了解一下我們正在談論的市場。

When I speak with investors on this topic, I hear many different thoughts on what the market is. Is it pure-play merchant acquirers? Is it other banks in the payments ecosystem, of which everybody is, obviously or leaders in that regard? It would just be helpful to understand what your definition of market end market growth rate is.

當我與投資者談論這個話題時，我聽到了許多關於市場是什麼的不同想法。它是純粹的商家收單機構嗎？是支付生態系統中的其他銀行嗎？顯然，每家銀行都是其中的領導者嗎？這將有助於您了解您對市場終端市場成長率的定義。

Thank you, Betsy, and thank you for your remarks for Terry and Andy. So first, we think of market as being US, not global, because the growth rates are different. We have a credit box, a very specific intentional range that we target. So we think about that, which is not sort of super, super prime, and it's certainly not subprime. We're very well positioned sort of in the right mix of yield versus charge-off rates in that middle to high segment.

謝謝你，貝琪，也謝謝你對特里和安迪的評價。因此，首先，我們認為市場是美國，而不是全球，因為成長率不同。我們有一個信用箱，這是我們所針對的一個非常特定的目標範圍。所以我們認為，這不是超級貸款，也不是超優質貸款，當然也不是次級貸款。在中高端市場中，我們的報酬率與沖銷率的組合非常合理。

And then the third is we want profitable margins. So we do actually, in our internal thinking, think of the big, big e-commerce large box retailers as a different growth rate because we're very committed to high returns. And that market is big enough and growing healthy enough for it to be a very vibrant business for us.

第三，我們想要利潤率。因此，在我們的內部思考中，我們確實認為大型電子商務、大型倉儲式零售商的成長率是不同的，因為我們非常致力於高回報。而且這個市場足夠大，並且發展得足夠健康，對我們來說這是一個非常有活力的業務。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up is on lending in general, and I noticed your C&I lending was quite strong this quarter. Anything in payments there? And I did notice that your C&I lending commentary in the press release had to do with a majority of that coming from non-bank or non-depository financial institutions. So could you give us some color on that? And is payments a part of that and DFI?

好的。偉大的。接下來是關於整體貸款的後續問題，我注意到本季你們的 C&I 貸款表現相當強勁。那裡有付款嗎？我確實注意到，您在新聞稿中對 C&I 貸款的評論與大多數來自非銀行或非存款金融機構的貸款有關。那你能給我們講講這個嗎？支付是其中的一部分嗎？也是 DFI 的一部分嗎？

Yes. So Betsy, I'll start with that. So on the commercial side, in commercial loans, we did see nice growth there. There's really three drivers, as I think about it. We had some growth in ABS lending, which is what you were referring to, that obviously was a driver. We had greater utilization rate, and that went across the board and throughout the quarter. It wasn't just at the end of the quarter, it persisted, and it hit, and it was all markets, and we were up 50 basis points.

是的。那麼貝琪，我就從這個開始吧。因此，在商業方面，在商業貸款方面，我們確實看到了良好的成長。我認為實際上有三個驅動因素。我們的 ABS 貸款有所增長，這就是您所提到的，這顯然是一個推動因素。我們的利用率更高，並且在整個季度都如此。這種現像不只是在季度末出現，而且持續存在，並且衝擊了所有市場，我們上漲了 50 個基點。

And I'd say we're getting closer to kind of our long -- very long-term normal rates in terms of utilization, which is good to see. And the third thing is we've been seeing nice growth in our middle market loans, particularly in expansion markets, where we have been growing. As we -- on one of the pages that we have, we signify where those expansion markets are. So those are the three things that we're -- that we saw during the quarter for the growth that you mentioned.

我想說，就利用率而言，我們正在接近長期正常水平，這是令人高興的。第三件事是，我們的中端市場貸款取得了良好的成長，特別是在我們不斷成長的擴張市場。正如我們在其中一頁所標明的，這些擴張市場位於何處。所以這就是我們在本季看到的您提到的成長的三件事。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

As well, said by Gerard and Betsy on the tragedy. Gunjan, you're now CEO of U.S. Bancorp, I guess, as of yesterday. And you did highlight some changes in management to make it more simple, interconnected, focused on the five verticals.

傑拉德和貝琪也談到了這場悲劇。Gunjan，我想，從昨天起，您就成為美國合眾銀行的執行長了。您確實強調了管理方面的一些變化，使其變得更加簡單、互聯互通，並專注於五個垂直領域。

You said your number one priority is to restore investor confidence, where, as you can see by the stock price, it's not the valuation it once was, you said you want to have better expenses, organic growth. And payments being the way to better returns and always superior risk management. So hopefully, I summarized that okay.

您說過，您的首要任務是恢復投資者信心，而從股價來看，它的估值已不再是原來的水平，您說過，您希望有更好的支出和有機增長。支付是獲得更好回報和始終卓越的風險管理的途徑。希望我總結得還不錯。

But -- and I said at Investor Day, like Andy, I love you, but unfortunately, I didn't love the stock price performance, and so restoring investor trust were getting that confidence back to the company, which should lead to the stock price.

但是——我在投資者日說過，就像安迪一樣，我愛你，但不幸的是，我不喜歡股價的表現，因此恢復投資者的信任會讓公司重新獲得信心，這應該會導致股價上漲。

So Gunjan, I mean sometimes you have all-star teams or often you have all-star teams that lose -- teams. And so you can have a lot of good players, it just doesn't work out. So I'd say just, from a stock price standpoint, it hasn't worked out over the longer term.

所以 Gunjan，我的意思是，有時你會擁有全明星隊，或者經常你會擁有輸掉比賽的全明星隊。因此，你可以擁有很多優秀的球員，但結果卻並非如此。因此我想說，從股價的角度來看，從長期來看，這是行不通的。

So Gunjan, stylistically, I know you're doing a lot of continuation, but what are you doing differently now versus Andy? I know you're next to each other and your partners and all that, but I don't know how you're different that might evolve U.S. Bancorp to better performance that would lead to a higher stock price and your number one goal, restoring investor confidence?

那麼 Gunjan，從風格上來說，我知道你做了很多延續性的工作，但是你現在與 Andy 相比有什麼不同嗎？我知道你們彼此相鄰，還有你們的合作夥伴等等，但我不知道你們有何不同，可能會使美國合眾銀行表現更好，從而帶來更高的股價，而你們的首要目標是恢復投資者信心？

So let me just start by acknowledging that I'm not happy with the stock performance as well, and so we feel the urgency and we hear the message. The priorities that I have laid out do reflect my observations and what we need to do differently.

因此，首先我承認我對股票表現也不滿意，因此我們感到緊迫，也聽到了訊息。我列出的優先事項確實反映了我的觀察以及我們需要採取的不同做法。

So the expense discipline, which was very core to the U.S. Bank story, needs to come back and you've seen us make very strong progress there. That allows us to not just deliver the positive operating leverage and the efficiency ratio targets that we are aiming for, but also invest in organic growth, so it's a sustainable performance trajectory.

因此，費用紀律（美國銀行的核心）需要恢復，而且您已經看到我們在這方面取得了非常大的進展。這使我們不僅能夠實現我們所追求的積極經營槓桿和效率比率目標，而且還能夠投資於有機成長，因此這是一個可持續的業績軌跡。

The second thing is, as you know, U.S. Bank's history has been to grow through a series of acquisitions; and then in more recent times since the GFC. To outperform through risk management. We do need to build out the organic growth muscle. So the focus on taking a very exceptional set of businesses, because our portfolio is very attractive. And amplifying their performance, especially in payments, all the priorities that I think say things need to be done differently.

第二件事是，如你所知，美國銀行的歷史是透過一系列收購實現成長的；以及最近全球金融危機以來的情況。透過風險管理取得優異表現。我們確實需要增強有機成長能力。因此，我們專注於選擇一組非常出色的企業，因為我們的投資組合非常有吸引力。並提高他們的績效，特別是在支付方面，我認為所有的優先事項都表明需要以不同的方式做事。

And finally, it just comes back to a culture that will show a very different level of urgency around execution. So again, I'll close my remarks by just acknowledging your comments that we have an exceptional franchise and we're very confident that the results will be better going forward.

最後，它又回歸到一種在執行上表現出非常不同程度緊迫性的文化。因此，在結束我的演講時，我再次承認大家的評論，我們擁有出色的特許經營權，並且我們非常有信心未來的結果會更好。

I appreciate that. When you look at the five verticals, it might be the first time you mentioned it. What are the five verticals? And you said that's most of revenues, and what's the opportunity to move the human bank franchise up to the U.S. Bancorp levels because it seems like those would be some organic growth opportunities?

我很感激。當你查看五個垂直領域時，這可能是你第一次提到它。五大垂直是什麼？您說這是大部分收入，那麼將人力銀行特許經營權提升到美國合眾銀行的水平有什麼機會呢？因為這似乎是一些有機成長機會？

That is indeed a very -- it's an important organic growth opportunity. And here, you are talking about our merchant businesses. And just a reminder, the merchant MPS business is about 5% of our overall bank, but a very important differentiator for us. It's a very competitive space. And the reason to think about focusing on the five verticals is you can build stronger deck-led value propositions for each of the verticals.

這確實是一個非常重要的有機成長機會。這裡，您談論的是我們的商家業務。需要提醒的是，商家 MPS 業務約占我們整個銀行業務的 5%，但對我們來說卻是非常重要的區別因素。這是一個競爭非常激烈的領域。而考慮關注這五個垂直領域的原因是，您可以為每個垂直領域建立更強大的以甲板為主導的價值主張。

They are very large verticals. So they are retail services, travel, entertainment and health care. And the more we have focused our acquisition efforts and our organic growth efforts on those verticals, the deeper and the better execution we have. And today, about 90% of our revenue focus is on those verticals.

它們是非常大的垂直體。因此，它們是零售服務、旅遊、娛樂和醫療保健。我們越是將收購和有機成長的精力集中在這些垂直領域，我們的執行力就越深入、越好。如今，我們約 90% 的收入都集中在這些垂直領域。

And Union Bank, the potential to move that up to your level?

聯合銀行有潛力將其提升到您的水平嗎？

So Union Bank is a very affluent franchise, a very attractive franchise. More than 1 million plus clients, 200,000 small businesses. Where we are there is about 2/3 of the penetration on the consumer side relative to where we are on the rest of the franchise, and less than half on the small business side. So getting those to U.S. Bank levels in the medium term is a very important growth opportunity for us.

因此，聯合銀行是一個非常富裕、非常有吸引力的特許經營銀行。擁有超過 100 萬客戶和 20 萬家小型企業。相對於我們在其他特許經營領域的滲透率，我們在消費者方面的滲透率約為 2/3，而在小型企業方面的滲透率還不到一半。因此，在中期內將這些目標提高到美國銀行的水平對我們來說是一個非常重要的成長機會。

Now you didn't ask, but let me just talk about a second one, too, which is our ELAN franchise. We serve 1,200 financial institutions in a white-label way across the US. That platform has really improved. Just last year, we have made some very nice enhancements to the user experience and the core platforms, and that's another growth engine that we are very excited about.

現在你沒有問，但讓我也談談第二個，那就是我們的 ELAN 特許經營權。我們以白標方式為美國 1,200 家金融機構提供服務。該平台確實有所改進。就在去年，我們對使用者體驗和核心平台做了一些非常好的改進，這是另一個讓我們非常興奮的成長引擎。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is for John. I just wanted to unpack on slide 18, your comments of a medium-term net interest margin of 3% plus medium-term, representing 2026, 2027.

我的第一個問題是問約翰的。我只是想解釋一下第 18 張投影片上你關於中期淨利差為 3% 加上中期（代表 2026 年、2027 年）的評論。

So I quickly looked at your -- so typically, when we've seen this kind of uplift from the [2.70s], it's because there's some sort of some hedges that are rolling off. And I'm looking at your C&I and CRE yields and then compared it to peers that aren't super hedged, and there doesn't seem to be a mismatch there. Your bond yields are a little bit lower than peers.

所以我很快看了你的——通常，當我們看到 [2.70] 這種上漲時，這是因為某種對沖正在消失。我正在查看您的 C&I 和 CRE 收益率，然後將其與未進行超級對沖的同行進行比較，似乎不存在不匹配的情況。你們的債券收益率比同業略低。

I'm wondering, and I couldn't really tell all from your swap disclosures at Investor Day, what could be optimized? But beyond rates, what is the balance sheet optimization plan to get you from the 2.70% to 3%?

我很好奇，而且我無法從您在投資者日的掉期披露中真正了解所有內容，哪些方面可以優化？但除了利率之外，還有什麼資產負債表優化計畫可以讓你的利率從 2.70% 升至 3%？

Sure. Thanks, Erika. So a couple of things there in terms of the hedges and just how we're progressing here. What we're signifying there is the loan growth and investment portfolio mix as well as the repricing. So a lot of this is mechanical in terms of the repricing.

當然。謝謝，埃里卡。因此，就對沖以及我們目前的進展而言，有幾件事需要注意。我們所指的是貸款成長和投資組合組合以及重新定價。因此，就重新定價而言，很多都是機械的。

I mentioned before, we have $5 billion to $7 billion on average per quarter that roll off on loans, fixed rate loans that will reprice 150 to 200 basis points better, and then an investment portfolio of $3 billion on average for the quarter.

我之前提到過，我們平均每季有 50 億至 70 億美元的貸款展期，固定利率貸款的重新定價將提高 150 至 200 個基點，然後每季平均有 30 億美元的投資組合。

And so that -- those at the same levels as well, 150 to 200 basis points. So those things will help drive up net interest margin over time. And as well as how we think about the mix of our loan book. So repositioning to things that have higher yield to returns, those sorts of things. The other component of it then is on the deposit and funding side. And that is going to have a little bit of market attached to it.

因此 — — 也處於同一水平，150 到 200 個基點。因此，隨著時間的推移，這些因素將有助於提高淨利差。以及我們如何考慮貸款組合。因此，重新定位到具有更高收益率的事物，諸如此類。它的另一個組成部分是存款和資金方面。這將會有一定的市場。

So to the extent the Fed cuts and funding costs go down, that will accelerate our trajectory on net interest margin. If we stay at a flatter rate or inverted like we are today on the short end of the curve, then that it could take a little bit longer. And that's just contemplated with this guide here. And so those are the things that we are considering.

因此，只要聯準會降息且融資成本下降，我們的淨利差軌跡就會加速。如果我們保持較平緩的利率或像今天曲線短端那樣倒掛，那麼這可能需要更長的時間。這只是本指南所考慮的。這些就是我們正在考慮的事情。

Now, you also made a comment on hedges. And I -- just to be clear, there is really no net interest income impact from our hedges. The pay fix swaps that we have on the investment portfolio from an accrual standpoint, completely offset received fixed swaps we have on the commercial loan book.

現在，您也對對沖發表了評論。我要明確一點，我們的避險其實不會對淨利息收入產生影響。從應計角度來看，我們在投資組合中支付的固定掉期完全抵消了我們在商業貸款帳簿上收到的固定掉期。

And so you may look at peer comparisons, I know that's hard to do because you don't see every single swap and all that sort of thing. But at the end of the day, when you put it all together, all these rates for all these hedges were put on in roughly the same ZIP code of rates that we are today. And so the accrual of it is negligible to the net interest income.

因此，您可以查看同行比較，我知道這很難做到，因為您看不到每一次掉期交易和所有諸如此類的事情。但最終，當你把所有這些對沖的利率放在一起時，你會發現它們都與我們今天的利率郵遞區號大致相同。因此，其應計金額對於淨利息收入而言微不足道。

Got it. And my second question is just maybe re-asking Gerard's question another way. When we got together in September during Investor Day, you unveiled a $5 billion buyback. You talked about a modest pace of buyback activity and sort of pegged it, I'm guessing, to the 10% ex-AOCI number, improving to 8.8% this quarter. And if I recall correctly, I think there was some commentary in September about being back half weighted in 2025 in terms of the buyback activity.

知道了。我的第二個問題也許只是以另一種方式重新提出傑拉德的問題。當我們在九月投資者日聚會時，你們宣布了一項 50 億美元的回購計畫。您談到了回購活動的適度步伐，我猜想這與 10% 的 AOCI 數據掛鉤，本季將提高到 8.8%。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為 9 月有一些評論稱，就回購活動而言，2025 年的權重將恢復一半。

And as I think about the opportunity -- and I'm guessing based on Gunjan's comments, you think that the stock is in undervalued and obviously, the macro isn't helping the value of the stock either, what is our marker? Is our marker now the 10% CET1, including AOCI is our marker time? Or have things changed because of the economic uncertainty in terms of the buyback pacing?

當我思考這個機會時——根據 Gunjan 的評論，我猜測您認為該股票被低估了，而且顯然宏觀經濟也無助於提升股票價值，我們的標的是什麼？我們的標記現在是 10% CET1，包括 AOCI 是我們的標記時間嗎？或者由於經濟不確定性導致回購節奏發生了變化？

Yes. So it's a number of things, Erika, that we looked at. I mean, obviously, in September, we talked about our new buyback program and how we will balance out distribution with capital build. And we continue to see that and want to do that. We've been doing a good job in marching higher capital levels. As we mentioned, the [8.8]. But we aspire to be at 10% on a CAT II basis.

是的。因此，埃里卡，我們研究了很多事情。我的意思是，顯然，在九月份，我們討論了我們的新回購計劃以及如何平衡分配和資本建設。我們不斷看到這一點並希望這樣做。我們在提高資本水準方面做得很好。正如我們所提到的，[8.8]但我們希望在 CAT II 基礎上達到 10%。

And so as we kind of move forward, our objective is to continue to grow the share repurchases over time. But in the meantime, we want to make it more balanced. We want to continue to grow capital, and we are mindful of other things such as loan growth, such as the macroeconomic environment, share price obviously matters. So all those things we have to consider. But those are -- that's kind of the glide path that we talked about and that's still consistent with we mentioned back in September.

因此，隨著我們不斷前進，我們的目標是隨著時間的推移繼續增加股票回購。但同時，我們希望使其更加平衡。我們希望繼續增加資本，同時我們也會關注其他因素，例如貸款成長、宏觀經濟環境、股價等，這些顯然都很重要。所以我們必須考慮所有這些事情。但這些是 - 這就是我們所談論的滑行路徑，並且與我們 9 月提到的一致。

And John, I'll just add, Erika, we are very committed to the overall distribution levels and getting to that in due course. So this is really a matter of managing the transition, especially in a time like that, prudently and not being in a rush to do something small, but very committed to the long-term distribution targets we have.

約翰，我還要補充一點，埃里卡，我們非常致力於整體分銷水平，並會在適當的時候實現這一目標。因此，這實際上是一個管理過渡的問題，特別是在這樣的時期，要謹慎，不要急於做一些小事，而是要致力於我們的長期分銷目標。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess I just wanted to echo what Betsy and Gerard said also. But in terms of the question, John, I just want to make sure I'm not putting words in your mouth, but did you bless that you believe that absent any macro shocks, the margin should be a 3% average for 2027?

我想我只是想重複貝琪和傑拉德所說的話。但就問題而言，約翰，我只是想確保我沒有把話強加給你，但你是否相信，如果沒有任何宏觀衝擊，到 2027 年，利潤率應該是平均 3%？

So we didn't necessarily say that, Ebrahim. What we're talking about is our expectations that we will achieve 3% net interest margin over the medium term, 2026 or 2027, those are the two dates that we have in mind. It's not a bridge or anything, it's just achieving that level.

所以我們不一定這麼說，易卜拉欣。我們所談論的是，我們的預期是，我們將在中期，即 2026 年或 2027 年，實現 3% 的淨息差，這是我們想到的兩個日期。它不是什麼橋樑，它只是達到了那個水平。

The speed and pace in which we can get there really depend on -- with respect to at least the last one, the curve shape deposit environment and then a bonus would be loan growth as well, which we have a very modest amount in our forecast given the environment that we're in.

我們實現這一目標的速度和步伐實際上取決於——至少就最後一個而言，曲線形狀的存款環境，然後獎金也是貸款增長，考慮到我們所處的環境，我們預測的貸款增長量非常適中。

The first two are fairly mechanical and are very much in our control. And so that's -- the third is more of the flip, is the -- more of the item that we're watching more. And so that's kind of what we meant by that -- those comments.

前兩個相當機械，並且完全在我們的控制範圍內。所以，第三個是反轉，是我們更重視的重點。這就是我們所說的那些評論的意思。

Got it. And I guess just a separate question on expenses. So laser-focused on operating leverage, it's been flat. Is it fair to assume that we could see multiple quarters of flat to lower expenses in the kind of revenue growth backdrop that you have talked about or guided for, given all the efficiency opportunities within the bank? Or is that being too aggressive?

知道了。我想這只是一個關於費用的單獨問題。因此，如果只專注於經營槓桿，它就一直保持穩定。考慮到銀行內部的所有效率機會，是否可以合理地假設，在您所談論或指導的收入成長背景下，我們可以看到多個季度的支出持平或下降？或者說這太過激進？

Ebrahim, let me start there. What we are managing to is delivering positive operating leverage. To the extent that the revenue picture has some uncertainty to it, we are flexing our expense base to deliver both positive operating leverage and invest back into growth. So what you should be looking for is the consistent positive operating leverage and the expense base will depend on the revenue environment.

易卜拉欣，讓我從這裡開始。我們正在努力實現積極的經營槓桿。如果收入前景存在一些不確定性，我們將調整支出基礎，以實現積極的營運槓桿並重新投資於成長。因此，您應該尋找的是持續的正向經營槓桿，而費用基礎將取決於收入環境。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Securities.

沃爾夫證券公司的比爾卡卡什 (Bill Carcache)。

Following up on your expense commentary, your 200-plus basis points of positive operating leverage is very clear in your guidance. But is it reasonable to expect that positive operating leverage could break above 300 basis points given the continued tailwinds from fixed rate asset repricing that are fairly mechanical in nature?

根據您的費用評論，您的指導中非常明確地提到了 200 多個基點的正營運槓桿。但是，考慮到固定利率資產重新定價的持續推動（其本質上是相當機械的），預期正營運槓桿率可能會突破 300 個基點是否合理？

Your NIM commentary, John, and sort of just that expense trajectory that you've been on, understanding there's a lot of uncertainty at a macro level, but sort of steady state with where we are, would that be a reasonable expectation?

約翰，您對 NIM 的評論，以及您所關注的費用軌跡，了解宏觀層面存在許多不確定性，但就我們所處的穩定狀態而言，這是一個合理的預期嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Bill. So I think in terms of operating leverage, just to reiterate what Gunjan said, we're looking at obviously growing our revenues through a number of different initiatives that we've talked about. And how that comes to be, obviously, there's a macroeconomic environment that we have to acknowledge. And to the extent that, that is better than what we had expected, then we will grow expenses to match that.

當然。謝謝，比爾。因此，我認為就營運槓桿而言，重申一下 Gunjan 所說的話，我們正在考慮透過我們討論過的一系列不同舉措來增加我們的收入。至於這種情況是如何發生的，顯然我們必須承認宏觀經濟環境的影響。如果結果比我們預期的要好，那麼我們將增加支出以適應這種情況。

If things are on the other side, then we'll flex down, and we have the leverage to do that. Ultimately, we're talking about achieving over 200 basis points of positive operating leverage. And that may bounce up and down a little bit above that level quarter to quarter based on the circumstances of that quarter.

如果情況相反，那麼我們就會屈服，而且我們有能力做到這一點。最終，我們談論的是實現超過 200 個基點的正營運槓桿。根據每個季度的具體情況，該數字可能每個季度都會在該水平之上略有波動。

So could something hit 300 basis points, it could. It's possible, but we would likely want to invest and make some additional investments during that particular quarter. So that's going to be the throttle that we think about as we move forward.

那麼，利率有可能達到 300 個基點嗎？有可能。這是有可能的，但我們可能希望在那個特定季度進行投資並進行一些額外投資。所以這將是我們前進時考慮的節流閥。

Understood. And separately on credit, you're flat -- relatively flat reserve rate seems consistent with stable asset quality across your consumer commercial portfolios. But maybe if you could just discuss what you're hearing from clients who are most exposed to changes in tariff policy. There's still lot we don't know, but can you give us a sense for whether your client base is more exposed to the risk of potentially more significant credit event versus simply just slower growth that would be relatively manageable?

明白了。另外，就信貸而言，相對平穩的準備金率似乎與您的消費者商業投資組合的穩定資產品質一致。但也許您可以討論一下您從最容易受到關稅政策變化影響的客戶那裡聽到的消息。我們還有很多不知道的地方，但您能否讓我們了解一下，您的客戶群是否更容易受到潛在的更重大信用事件的風險，而不是僅僅受到相對可控的較慢增長的風險？

Sure. Thanks, Bill. So broadly speaking, we're not seeing anything. Overall, it's way too early. As you said, the commentary changes frequently.

當然。謝謝，比爾。所以從廣義上講，我們什麼也沒看到。整體來說，現在還為時過早。正如你所說，評論經常變化。

And so we're all awaiting and watching. However, all that said, as you would expect, we have a very strong credit risk management team. They have an idea of the subsets of portfolios that we look at, that would be all the natural players that you would think of when you think of tariffs on things like automobiles and building materials and things of that variety.

因此我們都在等待和觀察。然而，正如您所期望的，我們擁有一支非常強大的信用風險管理團隊。他們對於我們所關注的投資組合子集有一個概念，那就是當你想到對汽車、建築材料和類似物品徵收關稅時會想到的所有自然參與者。

So when you think of that sort of thing, the important thing is also understanding the client. Because each client is going to have a different supply chain and a different unique circumstances, so it's really about understanding the portfolio and getting ready for those sorts of events. We're hopeful for every -- for it, but we're also acknowledging that there are conversations out there on tariffs, and we want to be prepared for it.

因此，當您考慮這類事情時，重要的是也要了解客戶。因為每個客戶都會有不同的供應鏈和不同的獨特情況，所以這實際上是關於了解投資組合併為這些事件做好準備。我們對此充滿希望，但我們也承認，目前存在有關關稅的討論，我們希望為此做好準備。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

肯‧烏斯丁（Ken Usdin），自主研究。

John, if I could just clean up a couple of quick things. Can you just let us know what curve you're now using in terms of cuts in the 10-year relative to what you gave us in January?

約翰，我能不能先快速清理一下一些東西。您能否告訴我們，相對於您在一月份給出的數據，您現在使用的 10 年期削減曲線是怎樣的？

Sure. So right now, our most recent forecast includes two cuts, one in the summer and one in the fall from the Federal Reserve on the short end. And then the long-term rates are pretty much in the ZIP code of what we have today throughout the course of the year. So that's effectively what our expectation -- our projections are at this point.

當然。因此，目前，我們最近的預測包括聯準會將進行兩次短期降息，一次在夏季，一次在秋季。然後，長期利率與我們全年今天所見的郵遞區號基本一致。所以這其實就是我們目前的預期——我們的預測。

Okay. Cool. And then a couple of quick things on fees. So in the payment side, you had talked previously quarters about prepaid card, getting to a run rate, did that happen in the first quarter? And kind of going forward, any other things we should be thinking about outside of seasonality in terms of just the kind of organic growth rate of payments?

好的。涼爽的。然後簡單談談費用問題。那麼在支付方面，您之前幾個季度談到了預付卡，達到了運行率，這是在第一季發生的嗎？展望未來，除了季節性因素之外，我們還應該考慮支付有機成長率方面的其他因素嗎？

Yes. So prepaid card had some impact this quarter, that's all completed now. It's worth a couple of points within that line item of the card book. That's all completed now. And so going forward, I would expect normal seasonality that you would expect from -- and we've talked about that or had that in our slides in the previous in terms of the trends that we see from a seasonal basis. So all those things still hold, and that's our expectation going forward.

是的。因此，預付卡在本季產生了一些影響，現在一切都已經完成了。在卡片簿的該項目中，它值幾分。現在一切都完成了。因此，展望未來，我預計會出現正常的季節性——就從季節性角度來看，我們已經討論過這個問題，或者在之前的幻燈片中提到過這個問題。所以所有這些事情仍然有效，這也是我們對未來的期望。

Okay. And last one, just you mentioned, I think, in your remarks about how the Corporate Services capital markets had a good DCM or debt issuance type of quarter. Do you see some of that as either pull forward in the environment? Or just can you just talk through your general pipelines for the capital market side of the Corporate Services business?

好的。最後一點，我想您在評論中提到了企業服務資本市場本季的 DCM 或債務發行表現良好。您是否認為其中的一些因素會推動環境的進步？或者您能否簡單談談企業服務業務的資本市場方面的一般管道？

Sure. Yes, the capital markets business continues to show a lot of growth opportunities. We've been growing our client base, both in terms of high grade as well as investment grade, as well as high yield. The foreign exchange and derivative or client interest rate derivative businesses have very strong pipelines. The market volatility has been very good to those businesses as we continue to build that out.

當然。是的，資本市場業務繼續顯示出許多成長機會。我們的客戶群一直在擴大，包括高等級、投資等級和高收益的客戶。外匯和衍生性商品或客戶利率衍生性商品業務擁有非常強大的管道。隨著我們繼續發展，市場波動對這些企業來說非常有利。

So we have a lot of momentum in that space. And we feel really good about it as we move throughout the course of the year.

所以我們在該領域擁有很大的發展勢頭。隨著這一年的發展，我們對此感到非常高興。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰·潘卡里（John Pancari），Evercore ISI。

Just a follow-up there on the fees side. I know you cited mid-single-digit growth expectation on fees. And I just want to see if you could more explicitly break that down by the the various lines if you're -- how you're thinking and if that's changed from previous?

這只是關於費用方面的後續問題。我知道您提到了費用的中等個位數成長預期。我只是想看看您是否可以更明確地按各個方面來分解這一點——您是怎麼想的，以及這是否與以前有所不同？

And more specifically, I'm interested in card. I think you have pointed out in the past that you're confident in the mid-single-digit growth rate in card in 2025, but it was up about 1.5% year over year this quarter. I know you mentioned card spend was weaker earlier in the quarter and stabilized in March. But how is mid-single-digit sustainable when you come off of this level and there's uncertainty in the macro outlook?

更具體地說，我對卡片感興趣。我想您過去曾指出，您對 2025 年信用卡的中位數個位數成長率充滿信心，但本季信用卡的成長率比去年同期成長了約 1.5%。我知道您曾提到本季初信用卡消費較弱，但在 3 月趨於穩定。但是，當經濟成長脫離這一水平，且宏觀前景存在不確定性時，中等個位數的成長如何可持續？

Sure. So in terms of mid-single-digit growth, that's for the entire fee complex that we have, not just card. Card was impacted, as I mentioned, with the prepaid item for the first quarter. But as we get beyond that, then we expect to grow.

當然。因此，就中等個位數成長而言，這是針對我們整個費用綜合體而言的，而不僅僅是卡片。正如我所提到的，第一季的預付費項目對卡片產生了影響。但當我們超越這一點時，我們就會期望成長。

And the payment trends that Gunjan spoke of was really a temporary phenomenon in terms of the weather. So that's really what we saw there. We expect to see growth in that as well as areas like trust, capital markets that I just spoke of and things like that.

Gunjan 所說的支付趨勢其實只是天氣造成的暫時現象。這就是我們在那裡看到的真實情況。我們預計該領域以及我剛才提到的信託、資本市場等領域都會出現成長。

Other revenue was also up. And I would mention, we've given a range of $125 million to $150 million. I would expect that to be on the upper end of that range as we move forward throughout the course of the year. So it's those sorts of things that are driving us for that mid-single growth -- digit growth for the fee complex.

其他收入也有所增加。我想說的是，我們給的範圍是 1.25 億美元到 1.5 億美元。我預計，隨著全年的推進，這一數字將處於該範圍的上限。正是這些因素推動著我們實現費用綜合體的中等個位數成長。

And again, excluding that prepaid card and then the weather dynamic, I mean, you -- did you achieve would you say about a mid-single-digit growth year-over-year pace on an adjusted basis in the card business?

再說一次，排除預付卡和天氣因素，我的意思是，您是否實現了信用卡業務在調整後同比增長率約為中等個位數？

Well, card grew at 4%, credit card just overall, forgetting the prepaid for a moment. So we're at that pace. So we feel good about the trajectory.

嗯，信用卡成長了 4%，整體而言，暫時忘記預付卡。所以我們現在就保持這樣的速度。因此我們對這一發展軌跡感到滿意。

Okay. Got it. All right. And then separately, back to the operating leverage, not to beat the dead horse. But the 200 basis point expectation, and I know you had indicated several times that you do have some levers if revenue does come in weaker, and we all worry for the industry as a whole. As we're looking at it right now, revenue may come in weaker.

好的。知道了。好的。然後單獨回到經營槓桿，不要再做無用功了。但對於 200 個基點的預期，我知道您曾多次表示，如果收入確實下降，您確實有一些槓桿，我們都為整個行業感到擔憂。從我們現在的角度來看，收入可能會減少。

So like what are the areas that you actually have levers? What areas can you pull back materially in cost for you already haven't done so? I just want to see if you can kind of maybe walk through that. Because it's clear that you're investing and you're in the middle of still of a transformation in payments and obviously, strengthening your organic capabilities. So curious where the levers are in the cost base.

那麼，您實際上在哪些領域擁有槓桿？您能大幅削減哪些領域的成本（因為您還沒有這樣做）？我只是想看看你是否可以解決這個問題。因為很明顯您正在投資，並且正處於支付轉型的階段，而且顯然正在加強您的有機能力。我很好奇成本基礎中的槓桿在哪裡。

Sure. So in terms of the cost base, we -- a lot of the programs that we listed on our slide deck is really programs that we have on expenses. And some of these things are short term that can be realized immediately. Some are -- take a longer time to implement. And so the timing of that matters in terms of the levers that we can pull.

當然。因此，就成本基礎而言，我們在投影片上列出的許多項目實際上都是我們的開支項目。其中一些是短期的，可以立即實現。有些則需要更長的時間來實現。因此，就我們能採取的措施而言，時機很重要。

And so as we've talked about with operating leverage, we have flexibility within that expense -- those expense programs to increase or increase the pace of savings or not depending on the revenue environment.

正如我們在談到經營槓桿時所說，我們在費用方面具有靈活性——這些費用計劃可以根據收入環境增加或加快儲蓄速度。

And so obviously, we're watching the revenue environment like everybody else. And this is just -- the number of things that we can do, whether it's real estate or automation or looking at our org structures and things of that variety, we have control over. And so those are the sorts of levers that we have.

顯然，我們和其他人一樣也在關注收入環境。這只是我們可以做的事情的數量，無論是房地產還是自動化，還是查看我們的組織結構和諸如此類的事情，我們都可以控制。這些就是我們所擁有的槓桿。

And John, I'll just add that the flexes in how much we reinvest back into the business, the expense savings we are focused on driving. So the flex is just how much we invest back in the business.

約翰，我只想補充一點，我們在重新投資業務方面的靈活性，以及​​我們專注於推動的費用節省。因此，靈活性就在於我們在業務上投資了多少。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

I wanted to go back to slide 18 and and drill down on that. And if you -- if I run the math on that slide and think about what it implies for net interest income, you have $700 billion plus of average earning assets in '27.

我想回到第 18 張幻燈片並深入探討這一點。如果你——如果我根據那張幻燈片計算一下，並思考它對淨利息收入意味著什麼，你會發現 27 年你擁有的平均收益資產超過 7000 億美元。

If I assume the ratio of earning assets to total assets is roughly constant here and apply 3% NIM, you get to over a $19 billion net interest income figure for 2027, which is a CAGR of over 5% from '24. And versus 25%, where the growth is probably going to be less than that, it kind of implies almost high single-digit growth. And on the back end of that '26 and '27, and it's well above our estimate or consensus.

如果我假設生息資產與總資產的比率在這裡大致保持不變，並應用 3% 的淨利息收入，那麼到 2027 年，淨利息收入將超過 190 億美元，從 24 年開始的複合年增長率將超過 5%。與 25% 相比，成長率可能要低一些，這意味著幾乎是高個位數的成長。在 26 年和 27 年的後期，它遠遠超出了我們的估計或共識。

So I'm curious what your reaction to that is? And are you -- do you think consensus is too low for net interest income? And in addition to that, what do you -- I assume you're assuming -- I think you're assuming low single-digit loan growth and the long end of the curve kind of staying where it's at. But just anything, any additional details on some of the underlying assumptions would be helpful as well.

所以我很好奇你對此有何反應？您是否認為淨利息收入的共識太低了？除此之外，您——我假設您假設——我認為您假設貸款成長率為低個位數，並且曲線的長端將保持現狀。但無論如何，任何有關一些基本假設的額外細節也會有所幫助。

Sure, Saul. Thank you for that. So I -- what we wanted to project is just our thoughts on what are thoughts around, particularly on the asset side, how the balance sheet is going to grow. As you suggest, if you do the math on just kind of the length of those ranges, it's really a kind of a low single-digit growth, which implies the loan growth is muted, and that's what we see, and that's how we -- that's what we forecast.

當然，索爾。謝謝你。所以我——我們想要表達的只是我們對周圍事物的看法，特別是在資產方面，資產負債表將如何成長。正如您所說，如果您計算這些範圍的長度，您會發現它實際上是一種低個位數成長，這意味著貸款成長放緩，這就是我們所看到的，也是我們預測的。

Now it certainly could be bigger than that. depending on how the economy evolves, et cetera, we don't know that. I mean getting out to 2027 and making a call on net interest income is very hard to do, obviously, and I won't do that here. I'm just offering a page to share with you our thoughts on how the net interest margin will evolve over time.

現在它肯定會比這更大。這取決於經濟如何發展等等，我們不知道。我的意思是，預測 2027 年的淨利息收入顯然非常困難，而且我不會在這裡這樣做。我只是提供一個頁面來與大家分享我們對淨利差將如何隨時間演變的看法。

And it really is driven by the two things that are quite mechanical and in our control, which is loan and investment portfolio repricing and remixing that we think will be very beneficial to us. And then the funding component will have some market components, as I mentioned. So those are kind of the highlights of that page. We just wanted to provide a path of how we're thinking about net interest margin going forward.

它實際上是由兩件相當機械且在我們控制範圍內的事情驅動的，那就是貸款和投資組合的重新定價和重新混合，我們認為這對我們非常有利。然後，正如我所提到的，融資部分將包含一些市場部分。這些就是該頁面的亮點。我們只是想提供一個途徑來說明我們如何思考未來的淨利差。

No, I get that. And I get that it's unclear or you don't want to give a net interest -- a specific net interest income figure for '27. But we have the NIM -- you're giving a NIM figure and you're giving an asset figure. So you can multiply one by the other and extrapolate. So -- and it does seem to be suggesting a much higher figure than where the Street is at in terms of net interest income.

不，我明白。我明白這不清楚，或者您不想給出淨利息——27 年的具體淨利息收入數字。但是我們有 NIM——您給出了 NIM 數字，並且給出了資產數字。因此，你可以將一個數乘以另一個數，然後進行推論。因此 — — 就淨利息收入而言，它所暗示的數字似乎比華爾街的實際數字高得多。

Yes. I mean, it's -- again, it's based on our internal view of how we believe that the net interest income will evolve given the assets that we have on the balance sheet, how those were repriced over time, and how our deposit optimization can work over time.

是的。我的意思是，這是——再次，這是基於我們的內部觀點，即我們認為淨利息收入將如何根據我們資產負債表上的資產變化，這些資產如何隨著時間的推移重新定價，以及我們的存款優化如何隨著時間的推移發揮作用。

Again, we have assumed an upward sloping curve here. And some of the projections we talked about at Investor Day, those apply to this. And so that's -- those are some of the factors that we have to consider. And it creates a wide range of change, but we wanted to provide you at least the path of how we think about it within our modeling.

再一次，我們假設這裡的曲線是向上傾斜的。我們在投資者日討論的一些預測也適用於此。這就是我們必須考慮的一些因素。它會帶來廣泛的變化，但我們至少想向您提供我們在建模中如何思考它的路徑。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

A couple of questions. Firstly, Merchant Processing and Corporate Trust, what percentage of the revenues are in Europe?

有幾個問題。首先，商戶處理和企業信託的收入有多少比例來自歐洲？

Well, on the merchant side, it's about 1/3 of the revenues as it relates to that. On the Trust and Fund Services, it's even smaller than that. It's probably sub-10%, I would say.

嗯，從商家方面來說，這大約占到總收入的 1/3。在信託和基金服務方面，規模甚至更小。我想說，這個比例可能低於 10%。

Okay. Different topic. Gunjan, your thoughts on this. You've talked about the Edward Jones partnership and driving growth through that. There was an article that I saw about Edward Jones actually submitting an application to set up their own bank and wanting to grow their own deposit program. Could you talk a little bit about how that would work with your partnership?

好的。不同的主題。Gunjan，你對此有什麼看法？您談到了與 Edward Jones 的合作關係以及透過該合作關係推動成長。我看到一篇文章，講的是愛德華瓊斯 (Edward Jones) 實際上提交了一份申請，希望建立自己的銀行，並希望擴大自己的存款計劃。您能否稍微談談這將如何與您的合作關係發揮作用？

So we are very aware of their plans, and we have been all through our discussions around our partnership. What they are trying to do with their own bank application is a very limited scope for CD-like saving products, but the big bulk of banking capability that combines with their -- the financial advice and brokerage capabilities is going to come from us. So this was very well contemplated to our discussions, not a surprise to us.

因此，我們非常了解他們的計劃，並且我們一直在討論我們的合作關係。他們試圖透過自己的銀行應用程式實現非常有限的類似 CD 的儲蓄產品範圍，但與其結合的大部分銀行功能——金融諮詢和經紀功能將來自我們。因此，這在我們的討論中是經過深思熟慮的，對我們來說並不令人意外。

Okay, okay. And lastly, just in the cleaned-up thing for you, John. Other income, you guided previously to $125 million to $150 million. Is that still the normal run rate given the upside you have this quarter?

好的，好的。最後，約翰，為你清理一下事情。其他收入，您之前預計為 1.25 億美元至 1.5 億美元。考慮到本季的上行潛力，這仍然是正常的運行率嗎？

Yes. I think that we'll be on the high end of that range as we think about that going forward, some more in the $150 million area is kind of how we think about that for the foreseeable future.

是的。我認為，當我們考慮未來時，我們的投資金額將處於該範圍的高端，在可預見的未來，我們的投資金額將達到 1.5 億美元左右。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

I want to follow up on the new credit card, the 0% for two years. And often, there's an upfront drag as you kind of ramp up those loans and then, obviously, the payback on the other side. But anything that we should be modeling for that as we think about kind of upfront next several quarters?

我想跟進新的信用卡，兩年的0%。通常，當你增加這些貸款時，會出現前期拖累，然後顯然還需要償還。但是，當我們考慮未來幾季的預付款時，我們應該為此建模什麼呢？

Matt, the concept is very appropriate. There is an investment into building out the pipeline. We manage that quite carefully, so that it does not change the overall dynamics of the fee growth, and it's a consistent inching up of the organic growth to create momentum going forward. So we would not expect it to show up in your modeling in any meaningful way, but it does create pipeline strength 18 to 24 months out.

馬特，這個概念非常恰當。有一項投資用於建設管道。我們非常謹慎地管理這一點，以便它不會改變費用增長的整體動態，並且它是一種持續緩慢的有機增長，以創造前進的動力。因此，我們不希望它以任何有意義的方式出現在您的模型中，但它確實會在 18 到 24 個月內創造管道強度。

Okay. And then a little bit of lead into my follow-up question on the net interest income guide for 2Q. I think ex day count, if you think the midpoint, it's relatively flat. And I guess, I don't know why not grow a little bit as we think about progressing throughout the year starting in Q2?

好的。然後稍微引出我關於第二季淨利息收入指南的後續問題。我認為除息日計數，如果你考慮中點，它是相對平坦的。我想，當我們考慮從第二季開始全年取得進展時，我不知道為什麼不稍微成長一點呢？

Yes, sure, Matt. So I think just given the environment and how things have evolved, we wanted to provide a little bit more of a range. We do expect net interest income to grow. Obviously, there is one more day, so $20 million or so for the second quarter. Ex that, we do expect growth. But we -- it's a volatile market and we wanted to -- we had some uncertainties and we -- there is uncertainty, I should say, in the marketplace and we wanted to reflect that.

是的，當然，馬特。因此我認為，考慮到環境和事態的發展，我們希望提供更多的範圍。我們確實預期淨利息收入將會成長。顯然，還有一天，所以第二季的金額約為 2000 萬美元。除此之外，我們確實預期會有成長。但是我們——這是一個動盪的市場，我們想要——我們有一些不確定性，我們應該說，市場上存在不確定性，我們想要反映這一點。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Andersen, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。安德森先生，我把電話轉回給您。

Thank you to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. You may now disconnect the call. Thank you.

感謝今天早上參加我們電話會議的所有人。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。您現在可以掛斷電話了。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。