美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and be available for replay beginning today at approximately 10:00 AM Central Time. I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

（操作員說明）此通話將被錄音，並可從今天中部時間上午 10:00 左右重播。我現在將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。

Thank you, Eli, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Andy Cecere; CIO Terry Dolan; President Gunjan Kedia; and CFO John Stern. Together with their prepared remarks, Andy and John will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation, our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules can be found on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，伊萊，大家早安。今天，我們的董事長兼執行長 Andy Cecere 也加入了我的行列。首席資訊長特里·多蘭；貢詹·凱迪亞總統；和首席財務官約翰·斯特恩。安迪和約翰將連同他們準備好的發言一起參考幻燈片演示。簡報、我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表的副本可以在我們的網站 usbank.com 上找到。

Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's (technical difficulty) assumptions are described on page 2 of today's presentation, our press release and in reports on file with the SEC. Following our initial prepared remarks, Andy, Terry, Gunjan, and John will take any questions that you have.

請注意，今天的簡報第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿以及向 SEC 歸檔的報告中描述了今天（技術難度）假設中所做的任何前瞻性陳述。在我們最初準備好的發言之後，安迪、特里、岡詹和約翰將回答您提出的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

謝謝，喬治。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。

I'll begin on slide 3. In the third quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $1.3, generated total net revenue of $6.9 billion. The quarter was highlighted by strong growth in net interest income, good momentum across several key business initiatives and continued expense discipline, which supported modest positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis compared with the third quarter of last year. Our return on tangible common equity was 17.9% this quarter.

我將從幻燈片 3 開始。本季的亮點是淨利息收入的強勁增長、多項關鍵業務計劃的良好勢頭以及持續的支出紀律，這支持了與去年第三季度相比調整後的適度正經營槓桿。本季我們的有形普通股報酬率為 17.9%。

Turning to slide 4. Revenue growth on a linked quarter basis was driven by improved spread income from more favorable loan mix, continues fixed asset repricing, proactive and disciplined liability management, as well as strategic actions taken on our investment security portfolio. John will provide more detail on this action in his prepared remarks.

轉向投影片4。行動。約翰將在他準備好的演講中提供有關此行動的更多細節。

On the upper right hand of the slide, you'll see that non-performing assets, the net charge-off ratio and late-stage delinquency metrics were all relatively stable compared with the second quarter levels. At September 30, our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.5%, an increase of 20 basis points from last quarter, driven by continued earnings accretion. Our tangible book value per share increased to $24.71, a 6.7% improvement linked quarter and an 18.5% higher than last year.

在投影片的右上角，您會看到不良資產、淨沖銷率和後期拖欠指標與第二季水準相比都相對穩定。截至 9 月 30 日，在獲利持續成長的推動下，我們的普通股一級資本率為 10.5%，較上季上升 20 個基點。我們的每股有形帳面價值增至 24.71 美元，季增 6.7%，比去年增長 18.5%。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics. This quarter, our return on average assets increased to 1.03%. The efficiency ratio improved to 60.2%, and net interest margin expanded 7 basis points to 2.74%.

投影片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。本季度，我們的平均資產報酬率增至1.03%。效率提升至60.2%，淨利差擴大7個基點至2.74%。

Turning to slide 6. We continue to see good momentum across many of our fee businesses. This quarter, we achieved year-over-year double-digit growth in both commercial and investment products revenue, driven by underlying capital markets activity and wallet share gains across our targeted industry verticals. Additionally, we also saw good year-over-year growth in trust and investment management, payment services, mortgage banking, and treasury management fee revenues as we benefited from a combination of improved underlying market conditions, deepening client relationships, and expanded product set and expanded distribution channels.

轉向投影片 6。本季度，在我們目標垂直行業的基礎資本市場活動和錢包份額增長的推動下，我們的商業和投資產品收入實現了同比兩位數增長。此外，受益於基礎市場狀況的改善、客戶關係的深化以及產品組合的擴大，我們在信託和投資管理、支付服務、抵押銀行業務和資金管理費收入方面也實現了良好的同比增長。 。

Let me now turn the call over to John who'll provide more detail on the quarter as well as forward-looking guidance.

現在讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊以及前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Andy. If you turn to slide 7, I'll start with a balance sheet summary followed by a discussion of third quarter earnings trends. This quarter, total average deposits decreased 1.0% on a linked quarter basis, to $509 billion as we continue to prioritize relationship-based deposits and maintained our pricing discipline. Average loans totaled $374 billion, a modest decrease of 0.2% on a linked-quarter basis.

謝謝，安迪。如果您翻到投影片 7，我將從資產負債表摘要開始，然後討論第三季收益趨勢。本季度，平均存款總額環比下降 1.0%，至 5,090 億美元，因為我們繼續優先考慮基於關係的存款並維持定價紀律。平均貸款總額為 3,740 億美元，較上季小幅下降 0.2%。

Industry loan growth remains muted, and the decline we saw this quarter was driven by slightly lower commercial balances, given continued headwinds from capital markets-related paydowns and continued relatively low utilization rates. Within retail, higher credit card loan balances and improved revolver rates drove more favorable loan mix and margins.

產業貸款成長仍然疲軟，本季的下降是由商業餘額略有下降推動的，原因是資本市場相關的還款和利用率持續相對較低帶來的持續阻力。在零售業，信用卡貸款餘額的增加和循環利率的提高推動了更有利的貸款組合和利潤率。

As Andy mentioned, this quarter, we opportunistically restructured a portion of our investment portfolio to enhance our net interest income growth trajectory and to further strengthen our capital and liquidity profiles. At September 30, the ending balance on our investment portfolio declined slightly to $167 billion with an average yield for the quarter of 3.20%.

正如安迪所提到的，本季度，我們機會主義地重組了部分投資組合，以增強我們的淨利息收入成長軌跡，並進一步增強我們的資本和流動性狀況。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的投資組合期末餘額小幅下降至 1,670 億美元，本季平均殖利率為 3.20%。

Slide 8 highlights our credit quality performance. Asset quality metrics continue to develop in line with our expectations and reflected ongoing macroeconomic stability. This quarter, we saw a slight reduction in our exposure to commercial real estate office portfolio, which remained appropriately reserved at 10.8%.

幻燈片 8 重點介紹了我們的信用品質表現。資產品質指標持續發展符合我們的預期，並反映了宏觀經濟的持續穩定。本季度，我們對商業房地產辦公室投資組合的投資略有減少，仍適當保留在 10.8%。

Late-stage delinquencies and non-performing asset metrics were relatively flat on a linked quarter basis, and the ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was unchanged at 0.49% linked quarter versus 0.35% year-over-year. Our net charge-off ratio of 0.60% increased 2 basis points from a second quarter level of 0.58%, in line with our expectations. At September 30, our allowance for credit losses totaled $7.9 billion or 2.1% of period-end loans.

後期拖欠率和不良資產指標環比相對持平，不良資產與貸款和其他房地產的比率保持不變，環比為 0.49%，而同比為 0.35%。我們的淨核銷率為 0.60%，較第二季的 0.58% 上升 2 個基點，符合我們的預期。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的信用損失準備金總額為 79 億美元，佔期末貸款的 2.1%。

We expect our fourth quarter net charge-off ratio to remain relatively stable compared with the third-quarter level. In the near term, we expect changes to the loan loss reserve to be driven primarily by loan balance growth and mix.

我們預計第四季淨沖銷率與第三季水準相比將保持相對穩定。短期內，我們預期貸款損失準備金的變動將主要由貸款餘額成長和組合所驅動。

Slide 9 provides a more detailed earnings summary. In the third quarter, we reported $1.03 per diluted share, which included $119 million of net losses or $189 million after tax on sales and securities rebalancing actions within our investment portfolio. These actions were largely offset by tax favorability in the quarter, primarily due to settlements in various tax jurisdictions.

投影片 9 提供了更詳細的收益摘要。第三季度，我們報告攤薄後每股收益為 1.03 美元，其中包括 1.19 億美元的淨虧損或投資組合內銷售和證券再平衡行動的稅後 1.89 億美元虧損。這些行動在很大程度上被本季的稅收優惠所抵消，這主要是由於各個稅收管轄區的和解所致。

Turning to slide 10. Net interest income on a taxable equivalent basis totaled approximately $4.17 billion, an increase of 2.8% linked quarter. Our net interest margin increased 7 basis points to 2.74%. Both net interest income and net interest margin growth this quarter benefited from a combination of earning asset repricing and mix further supported by higher card revolve rates, investment portfolio actions and disciplined deposit pricing.

轉向投影片 10。我們的淨利差上升 7 個基點至 2.74%。本季淨利息收入和淨利差成長均受益於生息資產重新定價和組合，而更高的卡片循環利率、投資組合行動和嚴格的存款定價進一步支持了這種組合。

Slide 11 highlights trends in noninterest income. Noninterest income totaled $2.7 billion and as mentioned, included $119 million of net security losses related to rebalancing activity within our investment portfolio. Importantly, year-over-year, we saw good growth across our core business offerings, including trust and investment management, commercial products, mortgage banking and investment products. As a reminder, last quarter's mortgage banking fees included an approximately $30 million gain on sale of mortgage servicing rights.

幻燈片 11 突顯了非利息收入的趨勢。非利息收入總計 27 億美元，如上所述，其中包括與我們投資組合內的再平衡活動相關的 1.19 億美元淨安全損失。重要的是，我們的核心業務年成長良好，包括信託和投資管理、商業產品、抵押銀行和投資產品。提醒一下，上季的抵押貸款銀行費用包括出售抵押貸款服務權帶來的約 3,000 萬美元收益。

Service charges decreased 6.2% linked quarter, partly reflecting the impact of exiting our ATM cash provisioning business. The exit is now fully reflected in our run rate for the third quarter of 2024.

服務費用較上季下降 6.2%，部分反映了退出 ATM 現金供應業務的影響。此次退出現已完全反映在我們 2024 年第三季的運行率中。

Turning to slide 12. Noninterest expense for the quarter totaled $4.2 billion, which was relatively flat to the prior quarter and 1.0% lower than a year ago as adjusted. The linked quarter increase of $16 million or 0.4% was driven by higher compensation and employee benefit expense, primarily due to higher performance-based incentives. On a year-over-year basis, the $42 million decrease as adjusted, was driven by prudent expense management initiatives and the identification of operational efficiencies across the company.

轉向投影片 12。季度環比增長 1600 萬美元，即 0.4%，這是由於薪酬和員工福利費用增加，這主要是由於基於績效的激勵措施的提高。與去年同期相比，調整後的支出減少了 4,200 萬美元，這是由於審慎的費用管理措施和整個公司營運效率的確定。

Turning to slide 13. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.5% as of September 30, increased 20 basis points from the second quarter. Looking ahead, we intend to balance our continued capital accretion of 20 to 25 basis points per quarter with capital distributions, starting with a modest share repurchase in the near term.

轉向投影片 13。展望未來，我們打算透過資本分配來平衡每季 20 至 25 個基點的持續資本增值，首先在短期內進行適度的股票回購。

I will now provide forward-looking guidance on slide 14. We expect net interest income for the fourth quarter on an FTE basis to be relatively stable to this quarter's $4.17 billion. This guidance is reflective of our current expectation for more modest loan growth and continued QT impacts on deposits.

我現在將在投影片 14 上提供前瞻性指引。這項指引反映了我們目前對貸款成長更為溫和以及量化寬鬆對存款持續影響的預期。

Full year 2024 net interest income on an FTE basis is expected to come in at the higher end of our $16.1 billion to $16.4 billion range. For the full year, we still expect mid-single-digit growth in total noninterest income as adjusted, but likely at the lower end of the range. We expect full year noninterest expense as adjusted to be $16.8 billion.

2024 年全年以 FTE 計算的淨利息收入預計將達到我們 161 億至 164 億美元區間的高端。就全年而言，我們仍預期調整後的非利息總收入將達到中等個位數成長，但可能處於該區間的下限。我們預計調整後的全年非利息支出為 168 億美元。

I'll now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

現在我將把它交還給安迪做總結發言。

Thanks, John. Third-quarter results showcase the resiliency of our unique and differentiated business model, which featured solid top line revenue growth supported by healthy linked-quarter margin expansion as well as continued year-over-year income momentum and steady expense discipline.

謝謝，約翰。第三季業績展現了我們獨特且差異化的業務模式的彈性，該模式的特點是在健康的環比利潤擴張以及持續的同比收入增長和穩定的支出紀律的支持下實現了穩健的營收成長。

This quarter, we reported modest operating leverage, excluding net securities losses and prior year notable items and consistent with our message at Investor Day. We expect to deliver expanding positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter that will continue into 2025.

本季度，我們報告了適度的營運槓桿，不包括淨證券損失和上一年的顯著項目，這與我們在投資者日發布的信息一致。我們預計第四季將實現不斷擴大的正營運槓桿，並將持續到 2025 年。

As recent industry headwinds become tailwinds, and we realize the benefits of our now run rate investment spend on industry-leading digital capabilities, integrated payment solutions and continued technology modernization, it will be the combination of our scale, our interconnected business model and our deep and talented management team that will allow us to capitalize on the many objectives and targets at this important inflection point in our story.

隨著最近的行業逆風變成順風，我們意識到我們目前在行業領先的數位能力、整合支付解決方案和持續技術現代化方面的運行率投資支出的好處，這將是我們的規模、相互關聯的業務模式和我們的深度的結合。

As always, let me close by thanking our over 70,000 employees for their everyday commitment to our clients, communities and shareholders. We'll now open the call for Q&A.

像往常一樣，最後，我要感謝我們 70,000 多名員工每天對客戶、社區和股東的承諾。我們現在將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

（操作說明）Scott Siefers、Piper Sandler。

John, I guess, wanted to start with NII. So at least relative to what I had anticipated, it looked like it came in better than you might have thought even as recently as a month or so ago at the Investor Day. I guess, just in sort of simple terms, can you walk through what, in your mind, ended up coming in better than you might have anticipated?

我猜約翰想從 NII 開始。因此，至少相對於我的預期，即使是在大約一個月前的投資者日，它的表現也比你想像的要好。我想，簡單來說，你能想像一下，在你看來，最終的結果比你預期的還要好嗎？

Sure, Scott. So a couple of factors I would say there. First, I think the remixing of our portfolio, we continue to see strength in our credit card and the revolve rate, as we discussed in our opening comments. It's great to see that business has been growing at 8% year-over-year on the loan side of things. Our fixed asset repricing continues.

當然，斯科特。我想說的有幾個因素。首先，我認為我們的投資組合的重新組合，我們繼續看到我們的信用卡和循環利率的實力，正如我們在開場評論中討論的那樣。很高興看到貸款方面的業務年增 8%。我們的固定資產重新定價仍在繼續。

And then the other factor I would just say is that on the -- what we didn't know is the Fed was going to cut 50 basis points, and we had the ability to really price on our deposits. And so I think the combination of all those things really helped us power and see nice momentum here in the third quarter.

我想說的另一個因素是，我們不知道聯準會將降息 50 個基點，我們有能力對我們的存款進行真正定價。因此，我認為所有這些因素的結合確實幫助我們增強了動力，並在第三季度看到了良好的勢頭。

Okay. All right. Perfect. And then if I could switch gears to fees for just a second. Just wanted to chat about the sort of the implied fourth quarter number.

好的。好的。完美的。然後我是否可以暫時切換到收費模式。只是想談談第四季隱含的數字。

So even if we get to the lower end of the full year fee guide, I guess that sort of implies that fourth quarter fees would get back up near sort of $2.8 billion, $2.9 billion level. That might be more typical of one of your seasonally stronger quarters like, typically, I think of you all doing best in the second quarter. Maybe if you can just sort of walk through the main puts and takes and where you would see sort of reaccelerating in momentum into the fourth quarter, please?

因此，即使我們達到全年費用指南的下限，我想這也意味著第四季的費用將回升至接近 28 億美元、29 億美元的水平。這可能是更典型的季節性強勁季度之一，通常情況下，我認為你們在第二季都表現最好。也許您可以簡單介紹一下主要的看跌期權和看跌期權，以及您會看到第四季度勢頭重新加速的地方，好嗎？

Sure. So I think we -- I think it's just in a number of different things. And as we discussed in our opening comments, the core business components are performing quite well. We had strong growth in trust, 6%. Commercial products was over double digits at 12%.

當然。所以我認為我們——我認為這只是在許多不同的事情上。正如我們在開場白中討論的那樣，核心業務組件表現得相當不錯。我們的信任度強勁成長，成長了 6%。商業產品超過兩位數，達 12%。

Mortgage had a nice year-over-year growth at 8%. And we -- payments, while it came in at 3% or so this quarter, we do have expectations of growth in those particular businesses in the fourth quarter. So all that kind of leads into some momentum there from a fee standpoint side.

抵押貸款年增 8%，表現不錯。我們的支付業務雖然本季成長了 3% 左右，但我們確實預計這些特定業務在第四季會出現成長。因此，從費用的角度來看，所有這些都會帶來一些動力。

We of course, have some headwinds there that we've talked about like in our ATM -- exiting our ATM business, some of the prepaid card metrics and some of the other things like that in the payments. But by all in all, that's what gets us and gives us confidence in our mid-single-digit growth on the fee side of things.

當然，我們在 ATM 方面也遇到了一些阻力——退出我們的 ATM 業務、一些預付卡指標以及支付方面的其他一些事情。但總而言之，這就是我們的動力所在，也讓我們對費用的中個位數成長充滿信心。

Perfect. Okay.

完美的。好的。

Thank you very much, Scott.

非常感謝你，斯科特。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

I know you cited the partial securities repositioning in the quarter. I wanted if you could give us a little bit more color on what you restructured in the quarter and the sizing of that and the yield? And then do you expect further actions on that front? And would further actions started to be factored into your NII expectations? Thanks.

我知道您提到了本季的部分證券重新定位。我想知道您能否給我們更多關於本季重組內容、重組規模和收益率的資訊？那麼您是否期望在這方面採取進一步行動？您的 NII 期望中是否會開始考慮進一步的行動？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, John. So in terms of the securities repositioning, we did take action what $119 million of losses. There was -- in total, there is about $10 billion in total of notional that was transacted. But importantly for you all, I mean, it's -- we consider that more or less a two-year payback is kind of how we're thinking about it.

當然。謝謝，約翰。因此，在證券重新定位方面，我們確實採取了行動，造成了 1.19 億美元的損失。名目交易總額總計約 100 億美元。但對你們所有人來說，重要的是，我的意思是，我們認為或多或少兩年的投資回報是我們的想法。

I would call the impact of the quarter maybe around $10 million or so. So there's probably a little bit more pickup in the fourth quarter related to it. And as I think about in the future, we don't have any other of these sorts of things contemplated in our guidance or anything like that. It's just -- this was an opportunity that came up with -- as we saw interest rates fall quite a bit, we were able to take advantage of that, and we feel good about the transaction. We're constantly looking at these things, but we don't have anything to contemplate at this particular point in time.

我認為本季的影響可能約為 1000 萬美元左右。因此，第四季可能會有更多與之相關的回升。正如我對未來的思考，我們的指導或類似的事情中不會考慮任何其他此類事情。只是 - 這是一個出現的機會 - 當我們看到利率大幅下降時，我們能夠利用這一點，並且我們對交易感覺良好。我們一直在關注這些事情，但在這個特定的時間點我們沒有什麼可以考慮的。

Okay. All right. And then separately, on the expense side, you put up some pretty good positive operating leverage this quarter and you implied that fourth quarter, you'll see that as well. And I believe at the Investor Day, you expressed confidence in continued positive operating leverage.

好的。好的。然後，在費用方面，您在本季度提供了一些相當不錯的積極營運槓桿，並且您暗示第四季度您也會看到這一點。我相信，在投資人日，您表達了對持續積極的經營槓桿的信心。

As you look at 2025, can you maybe help us get a sense of the magnitude of that operating leverage that you think is reasonable as you enter 2025 longer term. I believe the Street is looking at about 150 to 200 basis points operating leverage next year. Wanted to get your thoughts on that as we look at your return profile in the coming years.

當您展望 2025 年時，您能否幫助我們了解您認為進入 2025 年較長時期後合理的營運槓桿的大小。我相信華爾街預計明年的營運槓桿約為 150 至 200 個基點。在我們研究您未來幾年的回報情況時，想了解您對此的想法。

Thanks, John. This is Andy. So as you saw, we reported positive operating leverage of approximately 30 basis points in Q3 here. The guidance that John provided would indicate that our expectation for positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter of '24 will be north of 1%, and we would expect it to continue to expand from there into 2025. So building upon that 1% plus into '25, exactly where we'll get. We'll give more guidance as we get the forward-looking guidance as we think about '25 across the categories.

謝謝，約翰。這是安迪。正如您所看到的，我們報告第三季的正營運槓桿約為 30 個基點。約翰提供的指導表明，我們對 2024 年第四季度正運營槓桿的預期將超過 1%，並且我們預計它將繼續擴大到 2025 年。將要到達的地方。當我們在考慮 25 年各個類別時獲得前瞻性指導時，我們將提供更多指導。

Great. Very helpful, Andy. Thank you.

偉大的。非常有幫助，安迪。謝謝。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Just two. One follow-up on that is in the guidance for 4Q, you indicated expenses at -- until the $16.8 billion. And I know in the past, you had been saying $16.8 billion or less. So is there anything we should take away from that very ever-so-slight guidance change?

只有兩個。對此的一個後續行動是在第四季度的指導中，您表示支出為 - 直到 168 億美元。我知道過去您一直說 168 億美元或更少。那麼，我們應該從這個非常微小的指導變化中學到什麼？

Betsy, it's John. So I think it's just reflective of where in the third -- complete was the third quarter we're at the fourth quarter. Right now, we have a very good line of sight into what our expense base will be. And so we are just being more precise with that particular number.

貝特西，是約翰。所以我認為這只是反映了第三季的情況 - 完整的是第三季我們在第四季的情況。現在，我們對我們的支出基礎有一個很好的了解。因此，我們只是對這個特定數字更加精確。

In addition, we saw good growth in our net interest income. And so it's kind of -- the expense was coupled in part with the net interest income. You'll recall we shifted our discussion points on that. And since we're at the higher end of our range, we feel like $16.8 billion is the appropriate expense side of things this quarter.

此外，我們的淨利息收入也出現了良好的成長。因此，費用部分與淨利息收入結合。你會記得我們改變了我們的討論點。由於我們處於範圍的高端，我們認為 168 億美元是本季適當的支出。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. And then on the rate discussion earlier, you got the surprise 50, which you're able to pass through on to the [depositor] side. So as we're thinking about the next several quarters here, does NIM expand further as rates continue to come down? Or is there a catch-up on the asset side that we should be skewing to?

知道了。好的。不，這很有幫助。然後在之前的利率討論中，您得到了令人驚訝的 50，您可以將其傳遞給 [存款人] 一方。因此，當我們思考未來幾季時，隨著利率繼續下降，淨利差是否會進一步擴大？或者我們應該在資產方面進行追趕？

Yes. I think broadly speaking, rate cuts are a positive thing for us in the sense that we're able -- we have a deposit base that's conducive really to cuts. We have the ability, as you know, with 50% of our deposit base is in institutional and 50% is retail. We're able to cut institutional rates fairly quickly.

是的。我認為從廣義上講，降息對我們來說是一件積極的事情，因為我們有能力——我們擁有真正有利於降息的存款基礎。如您所知，我們有能力，50% 的存款基礎是機構存款，50% 是零售存款。我們能夠相當快速地降低機構利率。

And so the beta for this particular juncture is around that, I'll call it, 30% area for this particular cut. And we expect that to continue to migrate closer to or up to just north of 50% as we kind of get through the cycle and that sort of thing. And so that's going to be helpful.

因此，這個特定時刻的貝塔值大約是這個特定切割的 30% 區域，我稱之為這個區域。我們預計，隨著我們經歷週期之類的事情，這一比例將繼續接近或達到 50% 以上。所以這會很有幫助。

And I think the other thing is, over time, as the cuts happen, then that implies a more upward sloping curve, which should help us in our trajectory going forward as well. So those are the two pieces that I would point to.

我認為另一件事是，隨著時間的推移，隨著削減的發生，這意味著曲線會更加向上傾斜，這也應該有助於我們前進的軌跡。這就是我要指出的兩個部分。

Right. And 30% and 50%, that's on total IB deposits or total deposits, which is --?

正確的。 30% 和 50%，是 IB 存款總額或存款總額，這是—？

Total IB, total interest-bearing deposits, yes.

IB 總額，計息存款總額，是的。

Yeah. Super thanks so much.

是的。超非常感謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Just a few follow-up questions. First, on John's previous question.

只是幾個後續問題。首先，關於約翰之前的問題。

Sorry, Erika, can you just -- we're having a hard time hearing you.

抱歉，艾莉卡，你能不能——我們很難聽到你的聲音。

Can you hear me better now?

現在你能聽得更清楚了嗎？

Yes, that's better. Thank you.

是的，這樣更好。謝謝。

Okay. Sorry about that. Just wanted to follow up on John's question. You mentioned $10 billion of notional was sold. Could you -- so that we can understand the impact for fourth quarter, could you tell us what the average yield was of what was sold and what you invested in?

好的。對此感到抱歉。只是想跟進約翰的問題。您提到已出售了 100 億美元的名義資金。為了讓我們了解第四季度的影響，您能否告訴我們所售產品和投資產品的平均收益率是多少？

And just a follow-up to Betsy's line of questioning, you said that you saw a 30% beta and the terminal would be north of 50%. As we think about the fourth quarter, is it a sort of a smooth glide path to that 50%? Do you expect it to significantly accelerate from that 30% initial beta?

作為 Betsy 問題的後續，你說你看到了 30% 的貝塔值，而終端將超過 50%。當我們思考第四季時，這是否是一條通往 50% 的平穩下滑之路？您預計它會比最初 30% 的 Beta 版顯著加速嗎？

Sure. So maybe I'll just take those in pieces. The first one on the securities book. I think it was just an opportunity there to -- on a couple of different things. And it was really there to improve our liquidity profile as well as some lower yielding securities that have seasoned to reposition those. So it's just a number of different securities. So it's hard to just summarize it one thing.

當然。所以也許我會把它們分成幾個部分。證券簿上的第一個。我認為這只是一個機會——在一些不同的事情上。它確實是為了改善我們的流動性狀況以及一些收益較低的證券，這些證券已經經歷了重新定位。所以這只是一些不同的證券。所以很難只概括一件事。

But I would just say on the beta side of things, a 30% or so terminal beta, I think that just is a gradual increase as we look forward. And the reason for that is on the institutional side, you're going to get that benefit on each cut. On the retail side, you're going to get that benefit kind of, as I mentioned in the past, kind of an art to the retail pricing sort of thing. And so as CDs reprice and as the money market rates come down on retail, that's going to be kind of that glide path into the 50% terminal that I spoke to earlier.

但我只想說，在測試方面，大約 30% 的最終測試版，我認為這只是我們預期的逐步增加。原因是在機構方面，每次削減你都會得到好處。在零售方面，正如我過去提到的，你將獲得這種好處，就像零售定價之類的藝術一樣。因此，隨著 CD 重新定價以及零售貨幣市場利率下降，這將成為我之前談到的 50% 終端的下滑路徑。

And John, all of that -- all that you said, which is spot on, is all baked into your flat or stable net interest income projection for quarter --

約翰，所有這些——你所說的一切都是正確的，都被納入你對季度持平或穩定的淨利息收入預測中——

That's exactly right. Yes.

完全正確。是的。

Got it. And my second question is for you, Andy, and this is sort of a broader question. You hosted a very comprehensive Investor Day, and I think the investor reception at least as it followed through to the stock was probably less than desired. And as I think about the feedback from investors, I'm wondering if you could sort of readdress this on this call.

知道了。我的第二個問題是問你的，安迪，這是一個更廣泛的問題。你們舉辦了一個非常全面的投資者日，我認為投資者的接待至少在股票後續的反應中可能沒有達到預期。當我考慮投資者的回饋時，我想知道您是否可以在這次電話會議上重新解決這個問題。

You seem determined and you have showed us positive operating leverage. Maybe some quick notes on '25. The comments on the Southeast expansion was also hit on as a potential negative. And the third would be you're now in a place where you're building capital loan growth hasn't yet come back. What would allow you to be a little bit more aggressive more quickly on acting on that $5 billion authority?

您看起來意志堅定，並向我們展示了積極的營運槓桿作用。也許是一些關於'25的快速筆記。關於東南擴張的評論也被視為潛在的負面影響。第三，你現在所處的位置是，你正在建立的資本貸款成長尚未恢復。什麼能讓你在執行這 50 億美元的授權時更加積極、更快地採取行動？

So I'll take them in pieces, Erika. So first of all, I thought the team did a terrific job articulating the strategy at Investor Day. And part of that strategy was the inflection point discussion we talked about, which is controlled expenses, delivering on operating leverage and stronger revenue growth given the [interconnectiveness] of the businesses, and we're hitting on all those.

所以我會把它們切成碎片，艾莉卡。首先，我認為團隊在投資者日上闡明了該策略，做得非常出色。該策略的一部分是我們談到的拐點討論，即控制開支、實現營運槓桿和考慮到業務的[互聯性]更強勁的收入增長，我們正在努力實現所有這些。

And I think part of what the analyst community and the investor community want is examples in execution. And this quarter started that execution. And as I said, on operating -- we expect that to expand in the fourth quarter and into '25. So we're going to deliver on that.

我認為分析師群體和投資者群體想要的部分是執行中的例子。本季開始執行。正如我所說，在營運方面，我們預計這一規模將在第四季擴大到 25 年。所以我們將兌現這項承諾。

Secondly, with regard to the M&A environment, the -- given this environment, large bank M&A is just not a priority for us. That's not something we're focused on. What we are focused on is organic growth and the components that Gunjan talked about. And I'm going to ask her to just highlight some of those key aspects of that right now.

其次，就併購環境而言，在這種環境下，大型銀行併購並不是我們的優先事項。這不是我們關注的重點。我們關注的是有機成長和 Gunjan 談到的組成部分。我現在要請她強調其中的一些關鍵面向。

As we shared during the Investor Day, we do have very meaningful organic growth opportunities in our portfolio. And as Andy said, our attention is very much on executing against those priorities, deepening our client relationships, enhancing our product interconnectivity and broadening our reach.

正如我們在投資者日分享的那樣，我們的投資組合中確實存在非常有意義的有機成長機會。正如安迪所說，我們的注意力主要集中在執行這些優先事項、深化我們的客戶關係、增強我們的產品互連性和擴大我們的覆蓋範圍。

We are very focused on delivering meaningful positive operating leverage and the execution that goes with it. We have optimized our distribution via investments in our digital capabilities and our Southeast expansion is very much focused on our partnerships and our digital capabilities.

我們非常專注於提供有意義的積極營運槓桿以及隨之而來的執行力。我們透過對數位能力的投資優化了我們的分銷，我們的東南擴張非常注重我們的合作夥伴關係和數位能力。

Thanks, Gunjan. And then finally, on your last question with regard to capital, Erika, we -- as we talked about and as John articulated in his comments, we would expect to go into some level of modest buybacks here shortly. And then we would expect to build upon that once we have more clarity on Basel III and some of the capital rules.

謝謝，岡詹。最後，關於你關於資本的最後一個問題，埃里卡，我們——正如我們所討論的，正如約翰在他的評論中所闡述的那樣，我們預計很快就會進行某種程度的適度回購。一旦我們對巴塞爾協議 III 和一些資本規則有了更清​​晰的了解，我們就會期望在此基礎上再接再厲。

And then loan growth, as you talked about, is a key factor as well. But given all that, we would still expect to be at our capital targets even under the Cat 2 when we crossed that threshold, which, again, as a reminder, we talked about, it's not expected until 2027.

正如您所說，貸款成長也是一個關鍵因素。但考慮到所有這些，當我們跨越這一門檻時，即使在 Cat 2 下，我們仍然期望能夠達到我們的資本目標，再次提醒一下，我們談到，預計要到 2027 年才會實現。

I guess just to follow up on that, Basel III shouldn't impact that much, right, other than everybody's had already put in the impact of AOCI actually more immediately than whatever phase in Basel III end game has. I guess I'm wondering, as a regional bank, are you -- do you think it's just -- you're just a prudent constituent in terms of not wanting to be aggressive ahead of a new set of revisions? Or are there -- are you also considering the ratings agency?

我想，只是為了跟進這一點，巴塞爾 III 應該不會產生太大的影響，對吧，除了每個人都已經比巴塞爾 III 最終階段的任何階段更直接地施加 AOCI 的影響之外。我想我想知道，作為一家區域銀行，您是否認為您只是一個謹慎的選民，不想在一系列新的修訂之前採取激進行動？還是您也在考慮評級機構？

Just sort of wondering what the -- and I completely understand that you're about to buy back in the first quarter. But I think that it's probably an important component of long-only investors starting to increase their position in US bank.

只是想知道是什麼 - 我完全理解您將在第一季回購。但我認為，這可能是只做多的投資者開始增加在美國銀行的部位的重要組成部分。

Yes. All those constituencies you talked about are factors in our thinking. Loan growth, the final capital rules, the rating agencies, those are all factors, but we're very confident in our accretion ability. As you saw this quarter, 20 basis points. We've articulated 20 to 25.

是的。您談到的所有這些選區都是我們思考的因素。貸款成長，最終的資本規則，評級機構，這些都是因素，但我們對我們的增值能力非常有信心。正如您在本季度看到的，20 個基點。我們已經闡明了 20 到 25 個。

We're very comfortable with our capital position, and we're very comfortable with the ability to start to buy back and distribute as well as -- the level of which we'll continue to determine and judge over time given all those factors you talked about.

我們對我們的資本狀況非常滿意，我們對開始回購和分配的能力也非常滿意——鑑於您考慮到的所有這些因素，我們將隨著時間的推移繼續確定和判斷其水平。

Thank you, Andy.

謝謝你，安迪。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

First a cleanup question. So are you interested in buying a bank in the Southeast? Because that got a lot of play just following up to the prior question.

首先是清理問題。那麼您有興趣購買東南部的銀行嗎？因為緊接著上一個問題就引起了很多關注。

No.

不。

Not even a small bank?

連小銀行都沒有？

Mike, the environment right now is just not conducive. There's too much uncertainty for M&A, and I don't want to focus all our efforts on that when we have so much opportunity on the organic growth front. So in this role, what you do is prioritize against the opportunity set that you have in front of you.

麥克，現在的環境不太有利。併購存在太多不確定性，當我們在有機成長方面有如此多的機會時，我不想將所有努力集中在併購上。因此，在這個角色中，您所做的就是根據您面前的機會確定優先順序。

And our organic growth opportunities are far more important and much more tangible to us right now. And as you know, Mike, the M&A environment is just so uncertain right now that would not be a good place to focus our efforts.

現在，我們的有機成長機會對我們來說更加重要、更加切實。如你所知，麥克，目前的併購環境非常不確定，這不是我們集中精力的好地方。

Okay. So my main question here goes back to the operating leverage, which is how much of this is expenses versus revenues? And on the expense side, your investments in the last three, five more years, it's all in the run rate as you said at Investor Day. And how much benefit do you get from being a scale player? Because some smaller banks say they can just buy a lot of these things off the shelf and compete with the likes of U.S. Bancorp. So that's the expense question.

好的。因此，我在這裡的主要問題回到了營運槓桿，其中費用與收入的比例是多少？在費用方面，你在過去三年、五年的投資，都在運行率中，正如你在投資者日所說的那樣。成為規模玩家能獲得多少好處？因為一些規模較小的銀行表示，他們可以購買大量現成的東西，並與美國合眾銀行等銀行競爭。

And then the revenue question is, Gunjan, I know you're meeting the go-to-market strategy kind of what stage of that go-to-market strategy? And are we seeing the results now? Or do we expect to see more of that results ahead?

然後收入問題是，Gunjan，我知道您正在滿足進入市場策略的哪個階段？我們現在看到結果了嗎？還是我們期望未來看到更多這樣的結果？

So Mike, I'll start and then Gunjan will add on. I think to answer your question, I would think about it on both components. I think it's going to be both increased revenue growth and managed expenses. So as we talked about, we were flattish this time.

麥克，我先開始，然後 Gunjan 補充。我想回答你的問題時，我會從兩個方面來考慮。我認為這將是收入成長和管理費用的增加。所以正如我們所說，這次我們很平淡。

We might have some modest increase as we go into next year, but we're not going to have expenses growing above revenue levels, and I would expect growing revenue and those jaws widening from the expense revenue differential. The revenue will be driven by the activities that Gunjan spokes on, and I'll let her comment.

進入明年，我們可能會有一些適度的成長，但我們的支出不會成長超過收入水平，我預期收入會成長，而且支出收入差距會擴大。收入將由 Gunjan 談到的活動驅動，我會讓她發表評論。

The go-to-market is in its third and final year of our transformation. So we're beginning to see the results in some of the areas like the consumer deposit. We've built out a lot of capabilities to manage deposit pricing. We benefited from that in this downgrade cycle. We're seeing a lot of momentum with our multi-serve clients and deepening our relationships on the institutional side. We saw that with the capital markets growth over this quarter. So the impact of a good, scaled business model is delivering good positive operating leverage, including expense management. So this is what we would continue to focus on from an organic growth standpoint.

此次上市已進入我們轉型的第三年，也是最後一年。因此，我們開始看到消費者存款等一些領域的成果。我們已經建立了許多管理存款定價的功能。我們在這個降級週期中受益匪淺。我們看到我們與多服務客戶的強勁勢頭，並加深了我們在機構方面的關係。我們從本季資本市場的成長中看到了這一點。因此，良好的、規模化的商業模式的影響是提供良好的積極營運槓桿，包括費用管理。因此，從有機成長的角度來看，這就是我們將繼續關注的重點。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

John, on the deposits -- on the deposit pricing, can you share with us the loan-to-deposit ratios for the industry and yourselves are not as high as in previous cycles. Do you think that can give you added flexibility in lowering the cost aside from, obviously, you talked about the institutional deposits that are essentially, I think, index priced? So they come down quickly. But in the other deposit classes, do you think you're going to have some leverage to lower those rates because the loan-to-deposit ratio is now at 90% or something like that?

約翰，關於存款——關於存款定價，您能否與我們分享一下，行業和您自己的貸存比並不像以前的周期那麼高。您是否認為這可以為您帶來額外的靈活性來降低成本，除了您顯然談到的機構存款（我認為基本上是指數定價的）之外？所以他們很快就下來了。但在其他存款類別中，您是否認為您將有一些槓桿來降低這些利率，因為貸存比現在為 90% 或類似的水平？

Sure, Gerard. So I would say that we don't target necessary loan-to-deposit ratios. What we look at is holistically just overall surveying of our clients, making sure we have the right mix of deposits and loans. And loan growth is obviously going to be a driver or not of deposits. And where they're at this quarter, loans were flat to down just slightly.

當然，杰拉德。所以我想說，我們並不以必要的貸存比為目標。我們所關注的只是對客戶進行全面調查，以確保我們擁有正確的存款和貸款組合。貸款成長顯然會成為存款的驅動因素，也可能不會。從本季的情況來看，貸款持平或略有下降。

And so we took this opportunity to bring down some deposits that were at a higher cost side, and you saw that in the results here. And so that continues, I would continue to expect that. Conversely, if loan growth continues to take up, we're going to be making sure that we have the deposit base to suffice that.

因此，我們藉此機會降低了一些成本較高的存款，您可以在此處的結果中看到這一點。就這樣繼續下去，我會繼續期待這一點。相反，如果貸款繼續成長，我們將確保我們擁有足夠的存款基礎。

The other thing we always try to manage around that is our liquidity needs as well as interest rate risk profile as well. So it's kind of more of a holistic nature as it relates to that.

我們始終試圖管理的另一件事是我們的流動性需求以及利率風險狀況。所以它更像是一個整體性的東西，因為它與此相關。

Very good. And then for Andy or Gunjan, on the organic growth strategy, some of your peers, the bigger banks in particular, have embarked upon a branch build-out across the country, even one super -- or two regional banks have done this as well. Can you share with us as part of your organic strategy, how do you guys view new branches into maybe newer territories, combined with your ongoing digital reach out that, of course, you have?

非常好。然後，對於 Andy 或 Gunjan 來說，在有機成長策略上，你的一些同行，特別是較大的銀行，已經開始在全國範圍內擴建分行，甚至一家超級銀行或兩家地區銀行也這樣做了。您能否與我們分享一下，作為您的有機策略的一部分，您如何看待新的分支機構進入可能是新的領域，以及您不斷進行的數位推廣？

Maybe I'll start here. So first, the branches are very critical to our business strategy. We see deep client relationships anchored around the branch. It really drives brand recognition. And we are very steady in investing in our branch network.

也許我會從這裡開始。首先，分支機構對於我們的業務策略非常重要。我們看到分公司周圍建立了深厚的客戶關係。它確實提高了品牌認知度。我們對分公司網路的投資非常穩定。

Our strategy focus is to create density in the highest growth areas within our current footprint rather than use branches to expand out of our footprint. And the reason for that is that we have built some very good strong digital capabilities that allow us to deliver our services nationally, and we are combining that with our very strong partnerships with other partners that have brand recognition and client reach in areas where we don't have. It's a powerful combination. It's a capital-light way of expanding into other markets.

我們的策略重點是在我們目前業務範圍內的成長最快的區域創造密度，而不是利用分公司來擴展我們的業務範圍。原因是我們已經建立了一些非常強大的數位能力，使我們能夠在全國範圍內提供服務，並且我們正在將其與我們與其他合作夥伴的非常強大的合作夥伴關係相結合，這些合作夥伴在我們不擅長的領域擁有品牌知名度和客戶覆蓋範圍沒有。這是一個強大的組合。這是一種向其他市場擴張的輕資本方式。

Second is our national businesses from the institutional side. There, we are actually growing client centers in areas where we are not to expand our reach. So you'll see us continue to invest in our branch network, both inside, digitally enabling them, but within our current footprint.

其次是我們民族企業的製度面。在那裡，我們實際上在不擴大業務範圍的地區擴大了客戶中心。因此，您將看到我們繼續投資於我們的分支機構網絡，無論是在內部，還是在我們當前的足跡範圍內，都以數位方式支持它們。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

維韋克·朱尼賈 (Vivek Juneja)，摩根大通。

Just wanted to understand on payments and delve a little bit into that. You talked last quarter about corporate payments will be lapping this quarter because your tough comps with your trucking related fees last year, but we didn't really see the benefit of that lap in this quarter. So anything there that has caused it to be delayed, nor have we seen really merchant payments pick up in terms of year-on-year fee growth? So any color on what's going on and why the delay? And what gives you confidence that it will actually materialize in the coming quarters?

只是想了解付款並深入研究。您上個季度談到企業付款將在本季結束，因為您去年與卡車運輸相關費用的比較困難，但我們並沒有真正看到本季這一圈的好處。那麼有什麼原因導致了延遲，我們也沒有看到商家支付的年比費用成長真正增加嗎？那麼，您對正在發生的事情以及為什麼延遲有什麼看法嗎？是什麼讓您相信它會在未來幾季真正實現？

Sure. So Vivek, I would start by saying that I think there was still a little aftermath here on the freight side in the third quarter, but we expect that to completely lap here in the fourth quarter. And then we do see corporate spend being stronger. We saw some nice momentum at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, and that's what's really giving us the confidence that that will grow from the level that you saw in this quarter's results from a core payments perspective.

當然。因此，Vivek，我首先要說的是，我認為第三季貨運方面仍然存在一些後果，但我們預計這種情況將在第四季度完全消失。然後我們確實看到企業支出更加強勁。我們在第三季末和第四季看到了一些良好的勢頭，這真正讓我們有信心，從核心支付的角度來看，這將比您在本季度的業績中看到的水平有所增長。

Maybe, John, I'll add just a little point on the long-term expectation for payments. Where payments is in the mix with the client relationship, it creates really sticky enduring relationships. We do see good core growth in many of the categories of payments. They are partially offset by some unique items.

約翰，也許我會補充一點關於付款的長期預期。當付款與客戶關係結合在一起時，它會創造出真正黏性持久的關係。我們確實看到許多支付類別都有良好的核心成長。它們被一些獨特的物品部分抵消。

Freight is one of them, which was very disrupted post COVID and just is beginning to normalize, and there are some others as well. So the long-term confidence question that you asked is we look at the client value and we look at the core dynamics and you'll see that continue to improve over time.

貨運就是其中之一，在新冠疫情之後，貨運受到了很大的干擾，現在才開始恢復正常，還有其他一些。因此，您提出的長期信心問題是，我們著眼於客戶價值，我們著眼於核心動態，您會發現隨著時間的推移，它們會繼續改善。

I have another follow-up for John. John, just one of your comment earlier in response to your question, just piqued my interest. You said expenses were up because net interest income was up. Is there incentive comp tied to growing net interest income? Or is there something else that would drive expenses up when you get net interest income up? That's not really -- any color on that?

我還有一個關於約翰的後續行動。約翰，您之前針對您的問題發表的評論之一激起了我的興趣。您說費用增加是因為淨利息收入增加。是否有與淨利息收入成長相關的激勵補償？或者，當淨利息收入增加時，是否有其他因素會導致支出增加？那不是真的——上面有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes, Vivek, no, there's no linkage. What I was getting at is we're in the fourth quarter, we have a very good line of sight in what our expense level. So we're just being more precise really with it. I was comparing that to our net interest income that had -- has gone up higher and is in the higher end of our range. I was just making a comparison. There's no linkage from a compensation perspective in that sense. So we're just being more precise is the short answer.

是的，維韋克，不，沒有聯繫。我的意思是，我們正處於第四季度，我們對我們的支出水平有很好的了解。所以我們只是更精確地對待它。我將其與我們的淨利息收入進行了比較，淨利息收入已經上升，並且處於我們範圍的高端。我只是做個比較。從這個意義上來說，從薪酬的角度來看，兩者之間並沒有任何關聯。所以我們只是要更精確，這就是簡短的答案。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

I guess one question maybe first on fees, and I appreciate you're not talking about '25 right now. But just talk to us in terms of the linkage of the fee momentum accelerating from this mid-single digits into next year? And how much of that is dependent on loan growth picking up? Or how much of that can happen where even if loan growth or loan demand is fairly muted in the first half, we see better fee revenue momentum being a differentiator for USB?

我想首先可能有一個關於費用的問題，我很高興您現在沒有談論'25。但請與我們談談費用動能從這個中個位數加速到明年的聯繫？其中有多少取決於貸款成長的回升？或者，即使上半年貸款成長或貸款需求相當低迷，但我們認為更好的費用收入動能將成為 USB 的差異化因素，這種情況會發生多少？

Sure. From Investor Day, we talked about mid-single digits being in terms of our range from a financial metric performance. And I think what you saw this quarter is a good example of that, particularly look at commercial products which has benefited, of course, from loan growth being done and more in the capital market space. We see that benefit in our businesses.

當然。從投資者日開始，我們就財務指標表現的範圍討論了中個位數。我認為本季的情況就是一個很好的例子，特別是商業產品，這些產品當然受益於貸款成長以及資本市場領域的更多成長。我們在我們的業務中看到了這種好處。

But we've also grown and provide -- have new products, new capabilities in that space. Mortgage is continuing to see nice growth as that has gone. The service charges is -- will start to lap the ATM exiting business as we think about that starting in 2025. Corporate trust continues to be just a very strong growth rates, and that is tied in part to the markets, of course. And so that continues to develop.

但我們也在該領域不斷發展並提供新產品和新功能。隨著這種情況的消失，抵押貸款繼續出現良好的增長。我們認為，從 2025 年開始，服務費將開始涵蓋 ATM 現有業務。就這樣繼續發展。

We have good momentum there, and Gunjan just talked about the payments side of the house. And so I think all those things put together really gives us a lot of confidence in terms of that mid-single-digit growth that we think of it on the medium-term standpoint.

我們在那裡勢頭良好，Gunjan 剛剛談到了支付方面的問題。因此，我認為所有這些因素加在一起確實給了我們對中期個位數成長的信心。

Ebrahim, I would just add that we do have a very beautifully diversified fee mix. So right now, we are seeing a lot of growth in capital markets and to some extent, that's impacting loan growth. But our capital markets businesses are very strong, otherwise too, well to seeing a very good year because the stock markets are very strong. Our investment services businesses benefit from that.

易卜拉欣，我想補充一點，我們確實擁有非常多樣化的費用組合。所以現在，我們看到資本市場的大幅成長，在某種程度上，這影響了貸款成長。但我們的資本市場業務非常強勁，否則也很高興看到非常好的一年，因為股市非常強勁。我們的投資服務業務從中受益。

And then as the rate environment changes, we would expect mortgage to have sort of momentum. So really, as we go into the next year, it isn't any one thing, but it's the diversified mix because they play off of each other, depending on different macroeconomic environments.

然後，隨著利率環境的變化，我們預計抵押貸款將會有一定的動機。所以，實際上，當我們進入明年時，這不是單一的事情，而是多元化的組合，因為它們根據不同的宏觀經濟環境相互影響。

That's helpful. And I guess one follow-up, John. When I look at the 7 basis points NIM expansion, I think you mentioned $10 million lift from the bond book restructuring, that's probably 1 basis point. Should we expect the 7 basis point expansion as getting better as we move forward with a couple more rate cuts this year, the back book repricing? Like how should we think about the cadence of the NIM from your ex any kind of bond restructuring actions? And is it conceivable that we could be at a 3% NIM in the back half of next year?

這很有幫助。我想還有一個後續行動，約翰。當我看到 7 個基點的淨利差擴張時，我認為您提到了債券帳簿重組帶來的 1000 萬美元的提升，這可能是 1 個基點。隨著今年我們進一步降息、重新定價，我們是否應該預期 7 個基點的擴張會變得更好？例如我們應該如何考慮你的前任任何類型的債券重組行動的 NIM 節奏？明年下半年我們的淨利差是否有可能達到 3%？

Sure. So maybe just to go off of a couple of those points. From a net interest income standpoint, in the fourth quarter, we expect to have relative stability and that's just thinking about our earning assets are going to be relatively flat, we expect, and our asset repricing and liability prepricing are going to be largely offsetting. So that's kind of how we think about the stability component in the fourth quarter.

當然。所以也許只是為了擺脫其中的幾點。從淨利息收入的角度來看，我們預計第四季度將保持相對穩定，這只是考慮到我們的獲利資產將相對持平，我們預計，我們的資產重新定價和負債預定價將在很大程度上抵消。這就是我們對第四季穩定性部分的看法。

Beyond that, all the positive momentum that I've talked about in terms of continuing remixing in terms of our assets into higher return parts of the portfolio, our ability to reprice on deposits, as I mentioned, on the institutional side and then ultimately on the retail side. And then our deposit rotation is, as you have observed, is slowing down and for all intents and purposes, complete. And so that's all conducive to growth and continued expansion.

除此之外，我所談到的所有積極勢頭包括繼續將我們的資產重新混合到投資組合的更高回報部分，我們對存款重新定價的能力，正如我提到的，在機構方面，然後最終在零售方面。然後，正如您所觀察到的那樣，我們的存款輪換速度正在放緩，而且從所有意圖和目的來看，我們的存款輪換速度已經完成。因此，這一切都有利於成長和持續擴張。

I can't put a time frame on when exactly 3% occurs, but that's a good level to think about. And it's -- obviously, it's embedded within our medium-term guidance that we provided to you during Investor Day.

我無法確定 3% 何時發生，但這是一個值得考慮的好水平。顯然，它已包含在我們在投資者日期間向您提供的中期指導中。

And one last one, I guess, maybe Andy, I think you mentioned -- and you mentioned this on the Investor Day on the '27 crossing of the -- becoming a Cat 2 bank. Is that in any which way a constraint as you think about pursuing loan growth? Like do you -- is there any reason to believe USB is disadvantaged on pursuing loan growth next year because you're kind of -- you have an eye on the $700 billion asset number? Just address that if you don't mind.

最後一個，我想，也許是安迪，我想你提到過——你在 27 年十字路口的投資者日提到過這一點——成為一家 2 類銀行。當您考慮追求貸款成長時，這是否會成為一種限制？就像您一樣，有什麼理由相信 USB 在明年追求貸款成長方面處於不利地位，因為您關注的是 7000 億美元的資產數字？如果你不介意的話就解決這個問題吧。

No, there's no constraint in our loan growth. The loan growth activity right now is more a function of demand and consistent with the market overall and the HA data that you're seeing. And we have no constraints on loan growth. And again, as a reminder, Ebrahim, the way it works is you are at that $700 billion for four quarters on average. So when we think about '27, that's four quarters of impact. So we have no constraints on our assets or our balance sheet.

不，我們的貸款成長沒有受到限制。目前的貸款成長活動更取決於需求，並且與整體市場和您看到的房屋委員會數據一致。我們對貸款成長沒有限制。再次提醒一下，易卜拉欣，它的運作方式是平均四個季度的收入為 7000 億美元。因此，當我們考慮 27 年時，這就是四個季度的影響。因此，我們的資產或資產負債表沒有任何限制。

And we would expect that our growth will be in line with the industry. So I mean --

我們預計我們的成長將與行業保持一致。所以我的意思是——

Which is GDP plus.

這是GDP加上。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正確。

All very clear. Thank you so much.

一切都非常清楚。太感謝了。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

I think you guys announced that you're looking for a new payments head and were looking externally. And I was just wondering if you could update us on if there's any updates on that? And then I guess what type of person are you looking for? And is it to kind of continue the strategy that you've had or potentially reevaluate from areas?

我想你們已經宣布正在尋找新的支付主管，並且正在外部尋找。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹是否有任何更新？那我猜你要找什麼類型的人？是延續你已有的策略還是可能從某些領域重新評估？

I think there's the general view that maybe you could do more repayments given what the revenue pull up there is overall and that you've kind of under punched a little bit. So I don't know if you would agree with that, but what's the thought in terms of what you're looking for the new leadership?

我認為，人們普遍認為，考慮到整體收入的成長，也許你可以償還更多的錢，而且你的壓力有點不足。所以我不知道你是否同意這一點，但你在尋找新領導方面有何想法？

It's Gunjan. And we are indeed excited to be out in the market looking for new leadership for payments. We have a lot of interest in our franchise. It's unique. It's different. It's very important for us. And we do have big aspirations for not just a stand-alone sort of payments franchise, but how much it embeds and integrates with the everyday lives of our customers.

是貢詹。我們確實很高興能夠在市場上尋找新的支付領導者。我們對我們的特許經營權很感興趣。它是獨一無二的。這是不同的。這對我們來說非常重要。我們確實不僅希望獲得一種獨立的支付特許經營權，而且還希望它能在多大程度上嵌入並融入客戶的日常生活。

So with that, we're looking for someone who is talented from a payments perspective but culturally embraces this concept of an interconnected set of solutions for our client base. And that's what we are looking for. And as just -- just to reiterate what we shared, we have a long transition time. Very grateful that Shailesh has given us enough time to plan a very smooth and careful transition.

因此，我們正在尋找一個在支付方面有才華，但在文化上接受為我們的客戶群提供一套相互關聯的解決方案這一概念的人。這就是我們正在尋找的。只是為了重申我們所分享的內容，我們有很長的過渡時間。非常感謝 Shailesh 給了我們足夠的時間來規劃非常順利和仔細的過渡。

And then I guess just from a strategic point of view, and this is really trying to lead you one way or the other, but like are you set on kind of the long-term strategic path that you have in payments? Or are you open to potentially, fairly decent size changes one way or the other? Again, not really a leading question, but it seems like it might be an opportunity to take a fresh look and look for some opportunities that maybe you haven't before.

然後我想，只是從策略的角度來看，這確實是在試圖引導你採取一種或另一種方式，但你是否已經走上了支付領域的長期策略道路？或者您是否願意以一種或另一種方式接受潛在的、相當不錯的尺寸變化？再說一次，這並不是一個真正的引導性問題，但這似乎可能是重新審視並尋找一些你以前沒有的機會的機會。

Thank you, Matt. We have deep conviction around the strategy and the path that we are on today. When you meet clients and you see the impact of the payments product sets on the relationships we have, you sort of build that conviction. So the question that we are focused on is how do you execute perhaps differently? How do you accelerate the execution?

謝謝你，馬特。我們對我們今天所走的策略和道路充滿信心。當您會見客戶並看到支付產品對我們之間的關係的影響時，您就會建立這種信念。所以我們關注的問題是你如何以不同的方式執行？如何加速執行？

How do you stay current with the digital capabilities? And all of strategies that we shared with you on Investor Day are really focused on accelerating the how rather than sort of rethinking our strategy, where we do have a lot of conviction that payments becomes the center point of how people manage their day-to-day lives, and it needs to be embedded in every product, every relationship that we have.

您如何跟上數位化能力？我們在投資者日與您分享的所有策略實際上都專注於加速方法而不是重新思考我們的策略，我們確實堅信支付成為人們如何管理日常事務的中心點它需要嵌入到我們的每一個產品、我們擁有的每一種關係中。

That was helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員指示）Mike Mayo，富國銀行證券。

Just a follow-up to my earlier question related to the benefits of scale and specifically AI. Do you look to be an AI leader or a close follower? Or do you think you can get those tools off the shelf and you just wait and see in the context of the benefits of scale, again, after your years of investing?

這是我之前提出的問題的後續，涉及規模效益，特別是人工智慧的好處。您希望成為人工智慧領導者還是密切追隨者？或者，您是否認為您可以將這些工具下架，然後在經過多年的投資之後，您只是在規模效益的背景下觀望？

Yes, Mike. So we -- as you know, we do have scale. We invest $2.5 billion a year in technology and technology initiatives. We did a great job with the digital capabilities. We highlighted those at Investor Day, and we're following that same model with the AI initiatives, which is the center of excellence and then the business lines surrounding them in terms of use cases.

是的，麥克。所以，正如你所知，我們確實有規模。我們每年在技術和技術舉措上投資 25 億美元。我們在數位能力方面做得很好。我們在投資者日強調了這些，並且我們在人工智慧計劃中遵循相同的模式，這是卓越的中心，然後是圍繞它們的用例的業務線。

As we talked about, we have a number of use cases underway. I would say, traditional AI, we've been doing for a while. Generative AI is in the early innings. And what is important is we have a structure, expertise, leadership and technology to deliver on it, but it is early innings.

正如我們所討論的，我們正在進行許多用例。我想說，傳統的人工智慧，我們已經做了一段時間了。生成式人工智慧還處於早期階段。重要的是我們擁有實現這一目標的結構、專業知識、領導力和技術，但現在還處於早期階段。

Okay. And just one cleanup from Investor Day as it relates to the digital strategy, I mean going through State Farm. It's just -- just one more time. You had spent the whole day with management in New York City and more information always better. But the idea of going out of market where you don't have too much branches and going through State Farm with the digital strategy, it's just -- are there other examples of banks or nonbanks that have succeeded with that sort of approach?

好的。投資者日的一項與數位策略相關的清理工作，我的意思是透過 State Farm。只是——再一次。您在紐約市與管理層待了一整天，資訊越多越好。但是，退出沒有太多分行的市場並透過 State Farm 實施數位化策略的想法只是——還有銀行或非銀行機構透過這種方法取得成功的其他例子嗎？

It's just -- we've heard a lot of those stories over the last 20 years, and they haven't played out, so eventually you have to build more branches than you expected or something. So again, that is a little bit of cleanup from Investor Day.

只是 - 我們在過去 20 年裡聽過很多這樣的故事，但它們還沒有實現，所以最終你必須建立比你預期更多的分支機構或其他什麼。再說一遍，這是投資者日的一些清理工作。

Yes, I'm going to start --

是的，我要開始——

Making the strategy --

制定策略——

Yes. I think for the strategy to work, I think you have to have a couple of key components. One is that the digital capabilities to allow it to work with the other partner. The second is a partner who has the need from a banking product standpoint for their customer base and then alignment in terms of how that gets done. And I think both with State Farm and certainly with Edward Jones, those pieces are in place, and we've seen good results on that.

是的。我認為要使該策略發揮作用，我認為必須有幾個關鍵組成部分。一是數位化能力使其能夠與其他合作夥伴合作。第二個是合作夥伴，從​​銀行產品的角度來看，他們需要滿足其客戶群的需求，然後在如何完成這項任務方面保持一致。我認為無論是 State Farm 還是 Edward Jones，這些措施都已經就位，而且我們已經看到了良好的結果。

So opening it up core banking products, checking accounts, savings accounts outside of our market through that partnership, we have strong conviction on. And we believe we'll be successful because of those attributes. Gunjan, what would you add?

因此，我們有堅定的信念，透過這種合作關係，在我們的市場之外開放核心銀行產品、支票帳戶、儲蓄帳戶。我們相信，由於這些特質，我們將會成功。 Gunjan，你會加什麼？

And I would add, Mike, that we have been in this partnership business for some time now. We have a very strong franchise called [Elan], which is a white label credit card provider to other banks. So it does take a unique skill set to make these partnerships work, and many of these partnerships are restricted in terms of the number of products we are providing.

麥克，我想補充一點，我們從事這種合作業務已經有一段時間了。我們擁有非常強大的特許經營權，稱為[Elan]，它是其他銀行的白標信用卡提供者。因此，確實需要一套獨特的技能來使這些合作夥伴關係發揮作用，而且其中許多合作夥伴關係都受到我們提供的產品數量的限制。

So to your point, there might come a time when you think about expanding. For example, Charlotte was a market where we organically expanded and we're building out branches there. But for the core product sets and having put in place both the digital and the operational capabilities to fulfill servicing needs for people outside, we've become very good at it. So we are expanding it now with Edward Jones and as Andy said, good early successes and good momentum as a starting point to get your name and your brand in areas that we are not in today.

因此，就您的觀點而言，您可能會考慮擴張。例如，夏洛特是我們有機擴張的市場，我們正在那裡建立分支機構。但對於核心產品集，並建立數位化和營運能力來滿足外部人員的服務需求，我們已經變得非常擅長。因此，我們現在正在與愛德華瓊斯一起擴展它，正如安迪所說，良好的早期成功和良好的勢頭作為起點，讓您的名字和品牌進入我們今天沒有涉足的領域。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Andersen, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。安徒生先生，我將電話轉回給您。

Thank you, and thanks to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Eli, you may now disconnect the call.

謝謝你們，也感謝今天早上加入我們電話會議的所有人。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。 Eli，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。