美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 8:00 a.m. Central Time.

歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）將從今天中部時間上午 8:00 左右開始對該通話進行錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。

Thank you, Rochelle, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Andy Cecere; our Vice Chair and Chief Administration Officer, Terry Dolan; and Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, John Stern. Together with some initial prepared remarks, Andy and John will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation, our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝羅謝爾，大家早安。今天，我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長也加入了我的行列。安迪‧塞塞雷；我們的副主席兼首席行政官 Terry Dolan；以及資深執行副總裁兼財務長約翰·斯特恩。安迪和約翰將參考幻燈片演示以及一些初步準備的評論。簡報、我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表的副本位於我們的網站 usbank.com 上。

Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, our press release, our Form 10-K and in subsequent reports on file with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Andy, Terry and John will take any questions that you have.

請注意，今天的電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。今天簡報的第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿、我們的 10-K 表格以及向 SEC 歸檔的後續報告中描述了可能對我們當前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。在我們準備好的演講之後，安迪、特里和約翰將回答您提出的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'll begin on Slide 3. In the first quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.78, which included $0.12 per share of notable items. Excluding notables, earnings per share totaled $0.90.

謝謝，喬治。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。不包括知名人士，每股收益總計 0​​.90 美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong. We are maintaining our through-the-cycle underwriting discipline and seeing the benefits of our multiyear investments in digital, technology and payments ecosystem in the form of strong fee growth across our business lines. Importantly, we continue to accrete capital this quarter. Our CET1 ratio ended the period at 10.0% and our return on tangible common equity ratio was 17.4% on an adjusted basis.

我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。我們正在維持整個週期的承保紀律，並看到我們對數位、技術和支付生態系統的多年投資所帶來的好處，即我們各業務線的費用強勁增長。重要的是，我們本季繼續累積資本。期末我們的 CET1 比率為 10.0%，調整後的有形普通股本回報率為 17.4%。

Slide 4 provides additional performance metrics on both a reported and adjusted basis.

投影片 4 在報告和調整的基礎上提供了額外的績效指標。

On Slide 5, I'll provide some additional high-level observations for the quarter. Starting with the balance sheet. Credit quality metrics continue to develop in line with our expectations, and we achieved healthy growth in tangible book value per share on both a linked quarter and year-over-year basis.

在投影片 5 上，我將提供本季的一些額外的高層觀察。從資產負債表開始。信貸品質指標繼續按照我們的預期發展，我們在季度和同比基礎上實現了每股有形帳面價值的健康成長。

Loan and deposit growth remains under pressure for the industry, and that dynamic impacted our net interest income this quarter. Our NII on a taxable equivalent basis of approximately $4 billion was within our guidance, albeit on the lower end of the range. We are seeing good opportunities for loan growth in targeted portfolios. And notably, we continue to see consumer deposit growth despite the impact of QT on industry deposit levels.

該行業的貸款和存款成長仍然面臨壓力，這種動態影響了我們本季的淨利息收入。我們的 NII 約 40 億美元的應稅等值基礎在我們的指導範圍內，儘管處於範圍的下限。我們看到目標投資組合中貸款成長的良好機會。值得注意的是，儘管 QT 對行業存款水準產生了影響，但我們仍然看到消費者存款成長。

Over the past few weeks, the outlook for potential rate cuts in 2024 has meaningfully changed as long-term rates have backed up. Client behavior across the industry is adjusting in response to the potential higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has impacted our deposit mix and pressured deposit costs.

過去幾週，隨著長期利率的回升，2024 年潛在降息的前景發生了重大變化。整個行業的客戶行為正在調整，以應對潛在的長期較高利率環境，影響了我們的存款結構並承受了存款成本的壓力。

As a result, we now expect our NII for the full year to be lower than anticipated. However, we are taking a closer look at our expense base given these near-term NII headwinds and plan to take actions to mitigate the impact of lower-than-expected NII to our overall profitability. John will go on to more details on these topics, but importantly, we believe this is a near-term phenomenon.

因此，我們現在預計全年的NII 將低於預期。然而，考慮到近期的 NII 不利因素，我們正在仔細研究我們的費用基礎，並計劃採取行動減輕低於預期的 NII 對我們整體盈利能力的影響。約翰將繼續討論這些主題的更多細節，但重要的是，我們相信這是一個近期現象。

Turning to Slide 6. We continue to feel good about the momentum across our differentiated fee businesses. Fee income represents about 40% of our total net revenue, which stands to position us well in a lower interest rate environment. Overall, we are encouraged by our current trends in our client growth and penetration rates, as evidenced by the continued strength we have seen across many of our fee revenue businesses this quarter.

轉向投影片 6。費用收入約占我們總淨收入的 40%，這使我們在較低的利率環境中處於有利地位。總體而言，我們對當前客戶成長和滲透率的趨勢感到鼓舞，本季我們許多收費收入業務的持續強勁就證明了這一點。

Slide 7 provides an update on our differentiated payments ecosystem. Over the past few years, we have made good progress to both expand our business banking and payments relationships and grow related revenue associated with these relationships. You may recall, we discussed an opportunity to grow small business relationships by 15% to 20% and related revenue by 25% to 30% a few years ago. As you can see on this slide, we're making good progress and see even greater opportunity to further expand these relationships and related revenue in the medium term.

投影片 7 介紹了我們差異化支付生態系統的最新情況。在過去的幾年裡，我們在擴大商業銀行和支付關係以及增加與這些關係相關的收入方面取得了良好進展。您可能還記得，幾年前我們討論過將小型企業關係成長 15% 至 20%、相關收入成長 25% 至 30% 的機會。正如您在這張投影片中所看到的，我們正在取得良好進展，並看到在中期內進一步擴大這些關係和相關收入的更大機會。

Let me now turn the call over to John, who will provide more detail on the quarter as well as provide forward-looking guidance.

現在讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊並提供前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Andy. On Slide 8, we provide an earnings summary. This quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.78 or $0.90 per share after adjusting for notable items, including the last of merger and integration costs of $155 million following our acquisition of Union Bank and $110 million related to an anticipated increase in the FDIC special assessment.

謝謝，安迪。在投影片 8 上，我們提供了收益摘要。本季度，我們公佈的稀釋後每股收益為 0.78 美元或 0.90 美元，其中包括我們收購聯合銀行後合併和整合成本的最後 1.55 億美元，以及與 FDIC 特別基金預期增加相關的 1.1 億美元。

Turning to Slide 9. Total average loans were $371 billion, down 0.5% linked quarter, as growth was impacted by slow industry loan demand in the current higher interest rate environment. Despite tightening monetary policy and ongoing pressure on industry-wide deposits, our total average deposits of $503 billion were stable linked quarter as we continue to see our efforts to grow consumer-related deposits materialize.

轉向投影片 9。儘管貨幣政策收緊且全行業存款持續面臨壓力，但隨著我們繼續看到我們增加消費者相關存款的努力得以實現，我們的季度平均存款總額為 5,030 億美元，保持穩定。

End-of-period deposit growth was a little higher than we would typically see in the first quarter. Trust and corporate deposit inflows are seasonally higher at the end of the first quarter. However, the impact of holiday timing at quarter end delayed planned outflows of institutional deposits, which resulted in temporarily higher cash levels. We expect deposit outflows to move in line with more typical seasonal patterns.

期末存款成長略高於我們通常在第一季看到的情況。第一季末信託和企業存款流入季節性較高。然而，季末假期的影響推遲了機構存款的計劃流出，導致現金水平暫時較高。我們預計存款流出將符合更典型的季節性模式。

Importantly, we continue to proactively manage the balance sheet by prioritizing opportunities that exceeded our cost of capital and further optimized our funding mix. We continue to limit our reliance on short-term borrowings and remain disciplined on deposit rate paid as we focus on relationship-based deposits.

重要的是，我們繼續積極管理資產負債表，優先考慮超出資本成本的機會，並進一步優化我們的融資組合。我們繼續限制對短期借款的依賴，並在支付存款利率方面保持嚴格，因為我們專注於基於關係的存款。

Turning to Slide 10. Net interest income on a taxable equivalent basis totaled approximately $4.0 billion, down 3.1% linked quarter. And net interest margin declined 8 basis points to 2.70%. Both net interest income and net interest margin declines were driven by continued unfavorable deposit mix shift and deposit pricing pressure as well as slower loan demand.

轉向投影片 10。淨利差下降8個基點至2.70%。淨利息收入和淨利差下降都是由持續不利的存款結構變化和存款定價壓力以及貸款需求放緩所推動的。

Slide 11 highlights trends in noninterest income. Noninterest income increased 7.7% or $193 million on a year-over-year basis, driven by higher payments revenue, continued strength in underlying capital markets activity and stronger mortgage banking fees. On a linked quarter basis, noninterest income, as adjusted, decreased 1.4% or $38 million, reflective of seasonal declines in payments volume; and previously discussed impacts related to the exiting of our ATM cash provisioning business, which pressured service charges; and lower tax credit syndication fees, which impacted other revenue.

幻燈片 11 突顯了非利息收入的趨勢。在支付收入增加、基礎資本市場活動持續強勁以及抵押貸款銀行費用增加的推動下，非利息收入年增 7.7%，即 1.93 億美元。按季度計算，調整後的非利息收入下降 1.4%，即 3,800 萬美元，反映了支付量的季節性下降；先前討論了與我們的 ATM 現金供應業務退出相關的影響，這給服務費帶來了壓力；稅收抵免銀團費用降低，這影響了其他收入。

Turning to Slide 12. Reported noninterest expense for the quarter totaled $4.5 billion, which included approximately $265 million of notable items. Noninterest expense, as adjusted, decreased $10 million or 0.2% on a linked-quarter basis and $117 million or 2.7% year-over-year, driven by both cost synergies with Union Bank and our continued focus on operational efficiency.

轉向投影片 12 報告的本季非利息支出總計 45 億美元，其中包括約 2.65 億美元的顯著項目。調整後的非利息支出環比減少 1,000 萬美元，即 0.2%，年減 1.17 億美元，即 2.7%，這主要得益於與聯合銀行的成本協同效應以及我們對營運效率的持續關注。

Slide 13 highlights our credit quality performance. Asset quality metrics continue to develop in line with our expectations. Linked quarter, nonperforming assets increased 20%, reflecting continued stress in our commercial real estate office portfolio and one idiosyncratic commercial loan. The ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.48% at March 31 compared with 0.40% at December 31 and 0.30% a year ago. Our first quarter charge-off ratio of 0.53% increased 4 basis points from a fourth quarter level of 0.49% and was higher when compared to a first quarter 2023 level of 0.3% as adjusted. Our allowance for credit losses as of March 31 totaled $7.9 billion or 2.1% of period-end loans.

投影片 13 重點介紹了我們的信用品質表現。資產品質指標持續發展，符合我們的預期。關聯季度，不良資產增加​​了 20%，反映了我們的商業房地產辦公室投資組合和一項特殊商業貸款的持續壓力。截至3月31日，不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為0.48%，而12月31日為0.40%，一年前為0.30%。我們第一季的沖銷率為 0.53%，較第四季的 0.49% 上升 4 個基點，高於 2023 年第一季調整後的 0.3% 水準。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 79 億美元，佔期末貸款的 2.1%。

Turning to Slide 14. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.0% as of March 31 was reflective of a 10 basis point increase from year-end, which included 20 basis points of net capital accretion, offset by a CECL transitional impact of 10 basis points. We remain well above our regulatory capital minimum requirements.

轉向幻燈片14。抵消點。我們仍然遠高於監理資本最低要求。

I will now provide forward-looking guidance on Slide 15. We expect net interest income for the second quarter on an FTE basis to be relatively stable with the first quarter level of approximately $4.0 billion. Full year 2024 net interest income on an FTE basis is now expected to be in the range of $16.1 billion to $16.4 billion. Our revised guidance reflects a shift in commercial client deposit behavior in a higher-for-longer rate environment and heightened competitive industry dynamics. For the full year, we continue to expect mid-single-digit growth in noninterest income.

我現在將在幻燈片 15 上提供前瞻性指引。目前預計 2024 年全年以 FTE 計算的淨利息收入將在 161 億美元至 164 億美元之間。我們修訂後的指導反映了商業客戶存款行為在長期較高利率環境下的轉變以及競爭激烈的行業動態。就全年而言，我們繼續預計非利息收入將實現中個位數成長。

Given the pressure we are seeing on net interest income, we are reducing our expense guidance for the year. We now expect full year noninterest expense of $16.8 billion or lower, which compares to $17.0 billion in 2023.

鑑於我們看到的淨利息收入壓力，我們正在降低今年的費用指引。我們現在預計全年非利息支出為 168 億美元或更低，而 2023 年為 170 億美元。

Let me now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

現在讓我把它交還給安迪做總結發言。

Thanks, John. We have been preparing for a wide range of economic scenarios for some time now, and we continue to deliver industry-leading returns despite the current industry stress. Our diverse business mix is allowing us to differentiate in a competitive market, and we are seeing the benefit of the investments we've made and continue to make in our digital capabilities, our technology modernization and our payments ecosystem.

謝謝，約翰。一段時間以來，我們一直在為各種經濟情景做準備，儘管當前產業面臨壓力，但我們仍繼續提供業界領先的回報。我們多元化的業務組合使我們能夠在競爭激烈的市場中脫穎而出，我們已經看到了我們在數位能力、技術現代化和支付生態系統方面所做的和繼續進行的投資的好處。

The message I'd like to leave you with is that we will successfully navigate through the near-term challenges the industry is facing. But more importantly, we are well positioned for the future and continue to manage the company with a long-term lens.

我想傳達的訊息是，我們將成功應對產業近期面臨的挑戰。但更重要的是，我們為未來做好了準備，並繼續以長遠的眼光來管理公司。

Let me close by recognizing the many dedicated employees for all they do to support the constituents of our national banking franchise. It is because of our exceptional talent pool that we remain poised to execute on our capital-efficient growth objectives and continue to deliver the financial performance our shareholders have come to expect.

最後，我要對許多敬業的員工表示感謝，感謝他們為支持我們國家銀行業務的組成部分所做的一切。正是由於我們卓越的人才庫，我們仍然準備好執行我們的資本效率成長目標，並繼續提供股東所期望的財務表現。

We will now open up the call for Q&A.

我們現在將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

Was hoping, either Andy or John, you could talk just in a little more detail about sort of the nuance in the tougher NII guide for the full year. So I guess, at an industry level, we've got a couple of dynamics at play, whether it's the challenging loan growth environment or of course the impact of higher for longer on deposit costs and betas. So maybe the main 1 or 2 kind of pressure points you saw.

希望安迪或約翰能夠更詳細地討論全年更嚴格的 NII 指南中的細微差別。因此，我認為，在產業層面上，我們有一些動態在發揮作用，無論是充滿挑戰的貸款成長環境，還是長期較高的利率對存款成本和貝塔係數的影響。所以也許是您看到的主要 1 種或 2 種壓力點。

And then I guess as the follow-up. It doesn't feel like there will necessarily be a lot more pressure on NII. It's just that it might not advance in the second half. Is that the best way to think about it?

然後我想作為後續行動。感覺NII不一定會承受更大的壓力。只是下半場可能無法晉級。這是最好的思考方式嗎？

Sure, Scott. Thanks for the question. So maybe just take a step back just to answer your question. In the -- in January, when we talked about our guidance, we looked at, and we expected our 2024 net interest income, to be in line with the annualized fourth quarter number given that was past MUB actions that we had taken throughout the course of the year. And so to your point, we're 1% to 3% lower than the new guidance -- with our new guidance here.

當然，斯科特。謝謝你的提問。所以也許退後一步來回答你的問題。一月份，當我們談論我們的指導時，我們研究並預計 2024 年的淨利息收入將與第四季度的年化數字一致，因為這是我們在整個過程中採取的過去 MUB 行動今年的。因此，就您的觀點而言，我們比新指南低 1% 到 3%——我們的新指南在這裡。

And the outlook really speaks to changes or the dynamics that we have in the economy, the interest rate environment, the dynamics in the deposit environment, those sorts of things. The conversation of course has shifted. At the beginning of the year, there was multiple cuts, now we're shifting to more higher for longer.

前景確實反映了經濟的變化或動態、利率環境、存款環境的動態等等。當然，談話內容已經改變了。今年年初，我們進行了多次削減，現在我們正在轉向更高、持續時間更長的削減。

And what we've witnessed over that time is that our client behavior, particularly in the corporate and mid-market sections, have been shifting their behavior. And clients are continuing to rotate out of low-cost deposits into higher-cost deposits. And the pace of this action is slowing. We absolutely see that. It's just not slowing as fast as what we would have anticipated.

我們在那段時間目睹的是，我們的客戶行為，特別是在企業和中端市場領域，一直在改變他們的行為。客戶繼續從低成本存款轉向更高成本的存款。而這項行動的步伐正在放緩。我們絕對看到了這一點。只是減速速度沒有我們預期的快。

So to boil that all together, what we do see now with our guidance is that we have the second quarter net interest income will be relatively stable and we should see growth in the second half of the year. And we provided a range given that uncertainty in terms of client behavior and things of that variety.

因此，總而言之，我們現在根據我們的指引看到的是，第二季淨利息收入將相對穩定，下半年我們應該會看到成長。考慮到客戶行為和各種事物的不確定性，我們提供了一個範圍。

And the final thing I would just say is that we recognize this upfront and we're taking action. We are looking at our expense base and taking action and pulling some levers that we have been looking at. And so that's kind of how we think about the guidance from a big picture perspective.

我要說的最後一件事是，我們預先認識到這一點，並且正在採取行動。我們正在研究我們的支出基礎，並採取行動並拉動我們一直在研究的一些槓桿。這就是我們從大局角度思考指導的方式。

Thanks, John. And Scott, I'd just add that we continue to look for opportunities to improve efficiencies, particularly in this higher-for-longer rate environment. So we benefited from the $900 million of cost takeouts from the Union Bank transaction. And we continue to focus on additional efficiencies in areas like procurement and third-party spend, our workplace management and our properties and real estate.

謝謝，約翰。史考特，我想補充一點，我們將繼續尋找提高效率的機會，特別是在這種長期較高利率的環境中。因此，我們從聯合銀行交易中節省的 9 億美元成本中受益。我們繼續專注於採購和第三方支出、工作場所管理以及財產和房地產等領域的額外效率。

And probably the area of greatest emphasis is operational efficiencies as we centralize our operations activities and technology investments we've made to really improve the effectiveness and efficiency in how we deliver our products and services. So that will continue to be a focus and a lens for us, and that's -- those are the actions we're taking.

最重要的領域可能是營運效率，因為我們集中了我們的營運活動和技術投資，以真正提高我們提供產品和服務的有效性和效率。因此，這將繼續成為我們的焦點和鏡頭，這就是我們正在採取的行動。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala)。

I guess maybe just following up on NII, John, if we could drill a little bit into it. One, the securities yield went down 1 basis point sequentially. Just could you remind us of the dynamic, both in terms of the security book and fixed rate asset repricing that we should be mindful of going forward?

我想也許只是跟進 NII，約翰，如果我們能深入研究一下的話。一、證券收益率季減1個基點。您能否提醒我們在證券帳簿和固定利率資產重新定價方面我們應該注意的動態？

And then noninterest-bearing deposits, I think, saw a big surge at the end of the quarter. Again, what's the right way to think about NIB balances and mix as we look forward?

我認為，無息存款在本季末出現了大幅成長。再說一遍，當我們展望未來時，思考 NIB 餘額和混合的正確方法是什麼？

Sure. So maybe I'll start with your first question on the securities yield. It was relatively flat or down 1 basis point, as you cited. This quarter was a little bit different. We had taken some hedging actions that actually offset some of the asset churn that we typically would see. And so I would view this as more of a temporary thing.

當然。所以也許我會從你關於證券收益率的第一個問題開始。正如您所提到的，它相對持平或下降了 1 個基點。這個季度有點不同。我們採取了一些對沖行動，實際上抵消了我們通常會看到的一些資產流失。所以我認為這比較是暫時的事情。

I would look -- as I look forward, the typical churn that you see in asset repricing of that book. As a reminder, it's about $3 million per quarter that is rolling off at the lower level and will replace. And so that's really going to be what we're looking at kind of going forward. So I'd just look at this as an anomaly.

正如我所期望的那樣，我會看看你在那本書的資產重新定價中看到的典型流失情況。提醒一下，每季度大約有 300 萬美元會在較低水平上滾動並取代。所以這確實是我們未來所期待的。所以我只是將其視為異常現象。

On the deposit side, yes, we did -- I believe your question was on the surge in deposits. We did see a surge at the end of the quarter. There was a holiday in there, a lot of customers place balances with us. Very much temporary. A lot of those balances kind of hung on in and out here through tax season. And so we typically have that. It's just higher than what we would typically see for various reasons. And so we -- as we mentioned in our comments, we expect that to get to more seasonal levels.

在存款方面，是的，我們做到了——我相信你的問題是關於存款的激增。我們確實在本季度末看到了激增。那裡正值假期，很多客戶給我們存了餘額。非常臨時。其中許多餘額在整個納稅季節都被保留了下來。所以我們通常都有這樣的情況。由於各種原因，它比我們通常看到的要高。因此，正如我們在評論中提到的，我們預計這將達到更多的季節性水平。

And then just your follow-on was really on the noninterest-bearing side of things. It's continued to trend down on that mix of NIB versus total deposits. We're kind of in that 17% category right now. As we're in a higher for longer, it's possible that, that continues to drift lower just based on the dynamics that we're seeing in the marketplace.

然後你的後續行動實際上是在無息方面。 NIB 與總存款的組合持續呈現下降趨勢。我們現在就屬於那 17% 的類別。由於我們處於較高水平的時間較長，因此根據我們在市場上看到的動態，有可能繼續走低。

Got it. And I guess just separately around outlook for fee revenues. So your -- I think Andy addressed that in his prepared remarks, but give us a sense of any -- what areas you're seeing momentum on the fee revenue side. And whether there's any room for sort of upside surprise, if we get additional negative guide-downs on NII.

知道了。我猜想只是圍繞費用收入的前景進行單獨討論。因此，我認為安迪在他準備好的演講中談到了這一點，但請讓我們了解您在費用收入方面看到了哪些領域的勢頭。如果我們得到 NII 的額外負面指引，是否有任何上行驚喜的空間。

Yes, sure. So I mean, overall, we feel very -- we're pleased with the quarter 1 results. We saw good account growth. We're deepening relationships. We continue to see progress on Union and the growth opportunities that we see there. Consumer spending metrics, all the underlying metrics are strong, capital markets activities are strong. And that is supportive of our continued view on the single-digit growth on the fee aspect of things.

是的，當然。所以我的意思是，總的來說，我們對第一季的業績感到非常滿意。我們看到了良好的客戶成長。我們正在加深關係。我們繼續看到聯盟的進展以及我們在那裡看到的成長機會。消費者支出指標，所有基本指標都強勁，資本市場活動強勁。這支持了我們對費用方面單位數成長的持續看法。

Areas that we see growth. We particularly have seen that in the capital markets space. We had an extremely strong fixed income capital markets activity. A lot of issuance that came to market and our franchise absolutely benefited from that. Mortgage has continued to be strong in terms of -- even though applications and production has been lower on a year-over-year basis, we're actually seeing much wider spreads just given the areas that we're focusing on. And that's just a constant theme of how we're focusing on more return on equity -- or higher returns overall.

我們看到成長的領域。我們在資本市場領域尤其看到了這一點。我們的固定收益資本市場活動非常強勁。許多發行進入市場，我們的特許經營權絕對從中受益。抵押貸款在以下方面持續強勁——儘管申請量和生產量同比下降，但考慮到我們關注的領域，我們實際上看到了更廣泛的利差。這只是我們如何關注更高股本回報率或更高整體回報率的一個不變主題。

And then the payments business continues to do well and be in line with our expectations. And so -- and that's just -- that helps us support the payments ecosystem that we have and all the initiatives and investments that we've made over time. So all that is very much coming together, and we feel very, very comfortable about our fee outlook.

然後支付業務繼續表現良好，符合我們的預期。因此，這只是幫助我們支持我們擁有的支付生態系統以及我們長期以來所做的所有舉措和投資。因此，所有這些都非常重要，我們對我們的費用前景感到非常非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自自治研究組織的約翰·麥克唐納 (John McDonald)。

We're wondering about how are you thinking about the outlook for net charge-offs and provision and just kind of the credit trends you saw this quarter. John, you mentioned there was the one idiosyncratic commercial. Other than that, kind of what are you seeing? And are you still kind of thinking about a mid-50s kind of net charge-off outlook for this year? That would be helpful.

我們想知道您如何看待淨沖銷和撥備的前景以及您本季看到的信貸趨勢。約翰，你提到有一個特別的廣告。除此之外，你還看到了什麼？您是否還在考慮今年 50 年代中期的淨沖銷前景？那會有幫助的。

Yes, John, this is Terry. Let me take that question. So when we end up looking at credit, again, credit generally is pretty strong. I think that we're continuing to see in nonperforming assets that, that will continue to tick up and did tick up in the first quarter. It's primarily related to commercial real estate office space.

是的，約翰，這是特里。讓我來回答這個問題。因此，當我們最終再次審視信貸時，信貸總體上相當強勁。我認為我們繼續看到不良資產將繼續上升，並且在第一季確實有所上升。它主要與商業房地產辦公空間有關。

And I think when we think about kind of the rest of the year, probably in the second quarter, it's going to tick up a bit more. But then, that growth rate is going to really moderate quite a bit. The thing to keep in mind with respect to commercial real estate office space is we've aggressively reserved for that. We feel like we've adequately covered the loss content that's in that portfolio. So even though NPAs are likely to tick up, we don't see that as a real impact from a P&L standpoint.

我認為，當我們考慮今年剩餘時間時，可能是第二季度，它會進一步上升。但隨後，成長率將大幅放緩。關於商業地產辦公空間，需要記住的是我們已經積極預留了辦公空間。我們認為我們已經充分彌補了該投資組合中的損失內容。因此，儘管不良資產可能會增加，但從損益表的角度來看，我們並不認為這會產生真正的影響。

From a charge-off point of view in the first quarter, that's principally driven by just credit cards. And our expectation is that, that will probably in the second quarter also come up. But then on a full year basis, the charge-off rate that we would expect in credit cards is probably going to move up a bit in the second quarter and then start to moderate downward again. On a full year basis, we would expect that charge-off rate to be pretty similar to the charge-off rate that we see in the first quarter of about 0.425%.

從第一季沖銷的角度來看，這主要是由信用卡推動的。我們的預期是，這可能也會在第二季出現。但從全年來看，我們預計信用卡的沖銷率可能會在第二季略有上升，然後再次開始溫和下降。從全年來看，我們預計沖銷率將與我們在第一季看到的約 0.425% 的沖銷率非常相似。

Okay. Got it. And then for the overall company, kind of still kind of trending to that mid-50s perhaps on the charge-offs?

好的。知道了。那麼對於整個公司來說，也許仍然處於 50 年代中期的趨勢，也許是在沖銷？

Yes. I would say mid-50s, maybe closer to the 60 basis points. And again, I think that it's going to be a little bit lumpy because of just timing of commercial real estate charge-offs that will occur through the year. But again, we feel like we've adequately reserved for it.

是的。我想說的是 50 年代中期，也許更接近 60 個基點。再說一次，我認為這會有點不穩定，因為商業房地產沖銷的時機恰到好處，全年都會發生。但我們再次覺得我們已經為它預留了足夠的空間。

Got it. Okay. Great. And then, Andy, how are you thinking about the expense flex? You mentioned offsetting the NII. I guess, within reason, you're going to flex the expenses depending on the revenue environment plays out through the year?

知道了。好的。偉大的。然後，安迪，您如何看待費用彈性？您提到抵消國家資訊基礎設施。我想，在合理的範圍內，您會根據全年的收入環境來調整支出？

Yes, John. So it is an environment that it's always important to look at efficiencies, and we're -- that's something we're very focused on. And it is in those areas we talked about, we'll continue to flex where we see opportunities. We've centralized operations. We have other opportunities in spend. It's a company-wide initiative, and we'll continue to focus on that.

是的，約翰。因此，在這種環境下，專注於效率始終很重要，而這也是我們非常關注的事情。正是在我們談到的這些領域，我們將繼續在看到機會的地方進行靈活運用。我們實行集中化營運。我們還有其他支出機會。這是全公司範圍內的舉措，我們將繼續關注這一點。

Again, importantly though, I want to tell you John, that we're still investing, but we're looking at operational efficiencies as we deliver our products and services while continuing investments because the investments we've made is helping us with the efficiencies on a go-forward basis.

再說一遍，重要的是，我想告訴你約翰，我們仍在投資，但我們在提供產品和服務的同時繼續投資時正在考慮營運效率，因為我們所做的投資正在幫助我們提高效率在前進的基礎上。

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Welcome back, Betsy.

歡迎回來，貝琪。

Welcome back, Betsy.

歡迎回來，貝琪。

Thanks so much. So I had a follow-up on the comments around corporate behavior and the deposit shift from NIB. I want to understand two things. One is it should -- do you see your corporate deposits shifting from NIB to IB? Or is it more NIB to MMS?

非常感謝。因此，我對企業行為和 NIB 存款轉移的評論進行了跟進。我想明白兩件事。一是應該—您是否看到您的公司存款從 NIB 轉移到 IB？還是 NIB 比 MMS 更好？

And then separately, typically, corporates are in NIB because it's compensating balances for other services. So as this shift is going on, does it suggest that we're going to see an uptick in, say for example, treasury services or any of the other fee lines?

然後，通常情況下，企業都在 NIB 中，因為它正在補償其他服務的餘額。因此，隨著這種轉變的發生，是否表明我們會看到財務服務或任何其他費用項目的增加？

Betsy, it's John. Thanks for that. So in terms of the behavior, I think what we're seeing is the trends are slowing. The rotation is going, maybe first to answer your question, more from NIB into more IB. And it's more of the -- it's the trade-off for the client.

貝特西，是約翰。感謝那。因此，就行為而言，我認為我們看到的是趨勢正在放緩。輪調正在進行中，也許首先要回答你的問題，更多地從 NIB 轉向更多 IB。這更多的是——這是客戶的權衡。

And what we're seeing really there is clients are just optimizing and being as -- just looking at their balance sheet, looking at their balances, especially in this higher rate environment. And now that they know it's going to be here for a longer period of time, they're taking a closer eye to it. We're just seeing that more and more. So the trends have been slowing, of that mix shift, it's just taking longer than what we would have anticipated.

我們真正看到的是，客戶只是在優化並且只是查看他們的資產負債表，查看他們的餘額，尤其是在這個較高利率的環境中。現在他們知道它會在這裡存在更長的時間，因此他們正在更加密切地關注它。我們只是越來越多地看到這種情況。因此，這種混合轉變的趨勢一直在放緩，只是花費的時間比我們預期的要長。

So in terms of compensating balances, those are the things that are on a case-by-case basis with the clients. We look at the ECR rates that we pay and customers will then make decisions based on that. And so those are kind of the trade-offs that we see relative to that right now.

因此，就補償餘額而言，這些都是根據客戶的具體情況而定的。我們會查看我們支付的 ECR 費率，然後客戶將據此做出決定。因此，這些是我們目前看到的與此相關的權衡。

Okay. So treasury services potentially could see a little pop up in growth as how you pay for services changes? Or is that an overreach?

好的。那麼，隨著您支付服務費用的方式發生變化，財務服務可能會出現小幅成長？或者說這太過分了？

It's possible. But again, the dynamic's pretty fluid is kind of how I would describe it.

這是可能的。但同樣，我會這樣描述這種動態的流動性。

Okay. And also folks are staying on your balance sheet as opposed to going off balance sheet into MMS?

好的。而且人們會留在您的資產負債表上，而不是離開資產負債表進入 MMS？

That's right. Yes. A lot of this is defending clients and making sure we're there for them. Again, we view this as a temporary phenomenon. This is just a timing thing. It's really just -- the churn here is continuing. It's just being -- the pace of it is taking a little bit longer for it to stabilize than what we would have anticipated. And that's really what's going on here. We want to make sure we're here for the long run for our clients and serving them as we kind of transition through this rate environment.

這是正確的。是的。其中很大一部分是為了保護客戶並確保我們為他們服務。同樣，我們認為這是一種暫時現象。這只是一個時間問題。這確實是——這裡的混亂仍在繼續。只是它的穩定速度比我們預期的要長一些。這確實是這裡發生的事情。我們希望確保我們能夠長期為客戶服務，並在我們過渡到這種費率環境時為他們提供服務。

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And then just kind of 30,000-foot question here. Just could you help us understand how you are currently thinking about the asset sensitivity of U.S. Bancorp at this stage? How should we think about what higher for longer means for you for the whole organization?

知道了。好的。這非常有幫助。然後這裡只是 30,000 英尺的問題。您能否協助我們了解您目前如何看待現階段 U.S. Bancorp 的資產敏感度？我們該如何思考更高、更長時間對您和整個組織意味著什麼？

Yes, sure. So I think in terms of asset sensitivity from a risk management perspective, we are as neutral as you can be. We've taken a lot of different actions to make sure -- because we just don't know where the rate environment is. I mean, it was 7 cuts at the beginning of the year, the market had. Now it's closer to 0. So we just want to make sure we are prepared for different type of rate environments. And so I think as we think about the asset sensitivity, that is really how we're positioning ourselves.

是的，當然。所以我認為，從風險管理的角度來看，就資產敏感度而言，我們盡可能保持中立。我們採取了很多不同的行動來確保這一點——因為我們只是不知道利率環境在哪裡。我的意思是，市場在年初就進行了 7 次削減。現在它接近 0。因此，我認為，當我們考慮資產敏感性時，這確實是我們對自己的定位。

As we think about higher for longer and what that means, the drivers there are going to be clearly deposit betas and rate and paid and all that sort of thing may creep up. The offset to that is we're going to have asset churn on the loan side as well as the investment portfolio side. And over time, those things will offset and turn ultimately in our favor. But it's going to be that timing that's really going to matter in terms of what do those things move and shift over time.

當我們思考更高的時間和更長的時間以及這意味著什麼時，驅動因素將明顯是存款貝塔、利率和支付，所有類似的事情可能會逐漸增加。對此的抵銷是，我們將在貸款方面以及投資組合方面出現資產流失。隨著時間的推移，這些事情將會抵消並最終對我們有利。但真正重要的是時機，這些事情會隨著時間的推移而改變。

So Betsy, as John said -- this is Andy. We've tried to narrow the corridor of volatility given the uncertainty in the outlook. And so we are about as neutral as we can be given all the puts and takes John talked about.

所以貝特西，正如約翰所說——這是安迪。鑑於前景的不確定性，我們試圖縮小波動區間。因此，我們在約翰談到的所有看跌期權和看跌期權中都保持中立。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

If I could ask a couple of questions on the fee side. One, can we just talk a little bit through the payments businesses? It looks like the overall year-over-year growth rate was 4%. I think you're aspiring for upper single digits. It looks like corporate was down year-over-year and maybe the rate in merchant slowed a little bit. So can you just talk us through some of those dynamics and then how you'd expect that traject going forward?

如果我可以問一些關於費用方面的問題。第一，我們可以簡單談談支付業務嗎？看起來整體年增率為4%。我認為您渴望獲得較高的個位數。看起來企業業務年減，也許商業業務的速度有所放緩。那麼您能否向我們介紹其中的一些動態，然後您對未來的發展軌跡有何期望？

Sure. Yes. I think -- thanks, Ken. I appreciate that. We can look at -- maybe I'll take them in order. Merchant was kind of in that 4% area, as you mentioned, on the fee side of things. On that side, this quarter, we saw travel being a little bit down, but the other underlying metrics really have strong growth. We saw our tech-led initiatives really continue to propel very nicely. We saw high single digit for virtually other -- all the other categories in that space. So we think that travel is just kind of a short-term nature thing here, and we're well positioned and continue to feel good about high single digits there.

當然。是的。我想——謝謝，肯。我很感激。我們可以看看——也許我會按順序排列它們。正如您所提到的，在費用方面，商家處於 4% 的區域。在這方面，本季度，我們看到旅行略有下降，但其他基本指標確實出現了強勁增長。我們看到我們以技術為主導的舉措確實繼續順利推進。我們看到幾乎其他類別（該領域的所有其他類別）都處於高個位數。因此，我們認為旅行在這裡只是一種短期性質的事情，我們處於有利位置，並且繼續對那裡的高個位數感到滿意。

On the corporate side -- the corporate payment side, as you mentioned, that is -- it was negative over this year-over-year basis, but we are lapping the freight weight that has happened over the past year and that will really churn. There might be a little bit more than that in the second quarter. But we see strong momentum as we look -- again, the fundamentals of business spend and things like that are continuing to be in case. So we feel good about high single digits.

在企業方面——正如您所提到的，企業支付方面——同比是負值，但我們正在計算過去一年發生的貨運重量，這確實會造成影響。第二季的數量可能會多一些。但我們看到了強勁的勢頭——同樣，商業支出的基本面和類似的情況仍然存在。所以我們對高個位數感覺良好。

And then on the card side, really strong fee growth, good spreads, payment rates -- payment, spend trends constructive for how we're thinking about it. So all that -- we feel good about all the underlying trends from a payment standpoint.

然後在卡片方面，真正強勁的費用成長、良好的利差、支付率——支付、支出趨勢對我們的思考方式具有建設性。因此，從支付的角度來看，我們對所有潛在趨勢都感到滿意。

Okay. Got it. And then just in terms of some of the other lines, corporate services and mortgage did a lot better. I think you mentioned DCM and corporate and better gain on sale. Just wondering, are those both sustainable? Or was there any pull-forward on both of those areas this quarter?

好的。知道了。然後就其他一些業務而言，企業服務和抵押貸款的表現要好得多。我認為您提到了 DCM 和企業以及更好的銷售收益。只是想知道，這兩者都可持續嗎？或者本季這兩個領域都有任何進展？

I think it is. I think the underlying strength maybe had a little bit of positivity here in the first quarter. But underlying all that, I think the gain on sale in the markets that we're playing is legitimate. Even though the market has been slower from an application standpoint, a production standpoint, it's still kind of double digit, almost 20% down from year-over-year. So there's just -- there's a lot of -- the volumes are lower, but the spreads are wider, and we anticipate that to continue going forward.

我覺得是這樣的。我認為第一季潛在的力量可能有一點積極性。但在這一切的基礎上，我認為我們所參與的市場銷售收益是合理的。儘管從應用的角度和生產的角度來看，市場成長速度較慢，但仍是兩位數，比去年同期下降了近 20%。因此，數量減少了，但利差擴大了，我們預計這種情況將繼續下去。

Okay. Great. And last cleanup one. Just the ATM business, it didn't look like service charges changed. Did that close at -- and I know it's not a net profit. I know it's neutral net profit, but can you just update us on that?

好的。偉大的。最後一次清理。只是ATM業務，服務費好像沒有變化。收盤價是——我知道這不是淨利。我知道這是中性淨利潤，但您能向我們介紹一下最新情況嗎？

Yes. There was some of that in this quarter, and so they'll kind of fully run off here in the second quarter.

是的。本季有一些這樣的情況，所以他們會在第二季完全消失。

With an offsetting cost?

有抵銷成本嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Another one on net interest income. Andy used the word temporary in your opening remarks when talking about either the decline or the worst guide. And I didn't know what you meant by temporary.

另一項是關於淨利息收入。當談到衰退或最糟糕的指導時，安迪在開場白中使用了「暫時」這個詞。我不知道你說的暫時是什麼意思。

So what we're saying, Mike, is that this pressure that, as John described, we believe, is going to dissipate and has dissipated. It's just dissipating slower than we thought. And we expect a relatively stable into the second quarter and then growth in the back half of '24. So that's what I meant by temporary.

所以，麥克，我們要說的是，正如約翰所描述的那樣，我們相信這種壓力將會消散並且已經消散。它只是消散得比我們想像的要慢。我們預計第二季將相對穩定，然後 24 年下半年將出現成長。這就是我所說的暫時的意思。

Do you have any expectations for 2025 and where the floor is for noninterest-bearing deposits? Or any other color?

您對 2025 年有什麼期望以及無息存款的下限在哪裡？或其他顏色？

So I would expect that '25 would continue the momentum that we see in the second half of '24. We're not going to give a '25 guide right now because it's so volatile in terms of what rates could be. But importantly, Mike, we see the second half of '24, even in a lower rate cut environment and higher for longer, to start to go up.

因此，我預計 25 年將延續我們在 24 年下半年看到的勢頭。我們現在不打算提供 25 年指南，因為它的利率波動很大。但重要的是，麥克，我們看到 24 年下半年，即使在較低的降息環境和較長時間內較高的降息環境下，經濟也會開始上升。

And I know I've asked this before, but it still applies, I think. So the big picture here is you got $900 million of savings from the Union Bank acquisition. So that's good for the expenses. The revenues you highlighted in your slide, business banking is up 1/3 over 3 years in terms of revenues. And relationships, you have mortgage, you have capital markets, you have payments. The revenues are working, the expenses are working. And then we look at the efficiency ratio for this quarter and the core number is like around 62% for a company that for so long had an efficiency ratio under 60%.

我知道我以前問過這個問題，但我認為它仍然適用。所以這裡的大局是你從聯合銀行收購中節省了 9 億美元。所以這對開支來說是有好處的。您在幻燈片中突出顯示的收入，商業銀行業務的收入在 3 年內增長了 1/3。還有關係，你有抵押貸款，你有資本市場，你有付款。收入在發揮作用，支出也在發揮作用。然後我們來看看本季的效率比率，對於一家長期以來效率比率低於 60% 的公司來說，核心數字約為 62%。

Now I know you're investing a lot nationally. We heard that at the BAAB conference, but it's just like when do you get under 60%? And I get the NII effect that distorts things, but you do have some peers that are under 60% now. So how should we think about efficiency at U.S. Bancorp?

現在我知道你們在全國範圍內進行了大量投資。我們在 BAAB 會議上聽說過，但這就像你什麼時候能低於 60%？我發現 NII 效應扭曲了事情，但現在確實有一些同行低於 60%。那我們該如何考慮美國合眾銀行的效率呢？

Yes, Mike, that's why we're pulling these expense levers and looking at continuing to create efficiency. So I feel very positive about our fee categories. We have a diversified set of businesses, a lot of businesses that other banks don't have, like payments and commercial products, fund services, corporate trust, that helps us drive fee revenue. That's the strength that we talked about, that 7.7%. There are some headwinds on margin for the industry and for ourselves. We'll get past those headwinds, and we'll continue to operate efficiently and look for expense levers to get that efficiency ratio downward, and that's an objective of ours.

是的，麥克，這就是我們拉動這些費用槓桿並尋求繼續創造效率的原因。所以我對我們的費用類別非常樂觀。我們擁有多元化的業務，很多業務是其他銀行沒有的，例如支付和商業產品、基金服務、企業信託，這有助於我們推動手續費收入。這就是我們談到的強度，即 7.7%。對於產業和我們自己來說，利潤率都存在一些阻力。我們將克服這些阻力，繼續高效運營，並尋找費用槓桿來降低效率比，這是我們的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore 的對話。

On the deposit growth in the quarter, the surge in growth you saw at the end of period, can you maybe size up the impact that was more seasonal and more tied to the holiday dynamic and how much that could pull back?

關於本季的存款成長，您在期末看到的成長激增，您能否評估一下更具季節性且與假期動態更相關的影響以及可能回落的程度？

And then separately, also on the -- on your NII commentary, you did mention the competitive landscape shifting. Is that just regarding the deposit mix and pricing? Or are you also seeing some competitive dynamic impacting you on the loan front?

然後，在您的 NII 評論中，您確實提到了競爭格局的轉變。這只是關於存款組合和定價嗎？或者您也看到一些競爭動態在貸款方面影響您？

John, thanks. Maybe to answer your second question first. It's more of the deposit mix and rate paid. It's not necessarily the loan side. I think actually on the loan side, we see -- even though loans are soft at this point, we do see decent momentum on the commercial side. We saw good period-end growth there. Spreads are good. The asset churn is positive all there. I think it's just -- again, it's back on the deposit side of things in the mix.

約翰，謝謝。也許先回答你的第二個問題。更多的是存款組合和支付的利率。不一定是貸款方。我認為實際上在貸款方面，我們看到——儘管目前貸款疲軟，但我們確實看到商業方面的良好勢頭。我們在那裡看到了良好的期末成長。點差很好。資產流失都是正面的。我認為這又回到了存款方面。

And I would say even on the mix, I would say on the commercial side, it's just a rotational thing. The rates environment really hasn't changed in the commercial side. On the retail side, sometimes rates go up, sometimes down, depending on geography and market and all those sorts of things. But we're competitive there, and we want to make sure that we're growing, and we have been growing. We've been growing consumer deposits, as we mentioned.

我想說，即使在混合方面，我想說在商業方面，這只是一個輪換的事情。商業方面的利率環境確實沒有改變。在零售方面，利率有時會上升，有時會下降，這取決於地理位置和市場以及所有這些因素。但我們在那裡具有競爭力，我們希望確保我們正在成長，而且我們一直在成長。正如我們所提到的，我們一直在增加消費者存款。

Back on your first question on the deposit surge. It's probably in the area of $15 billion to $20 billion that we received. We get a lot of inflow at the end of the quarter as people prepare for outflowing payments, end of the month type payments as -- or first of the month as well as fifth of the month. And then sometimes they just hold it all the way through the tax season. That's exactly what we've seen here, is that you get this kind of surge up at the end of the quarter. It holds for the duration through tax day and then it starts to wind down. Kind of -- that's been very seasonal. It's just a bigger number than what we had typically seen.

回到你關於存款激增的第一個問題。我們收到的金額可能在 150 億至 200 億美元之間。我們在季度末獲得大量資金流入，因為人們準備流出付款，月末類型的付款（或月初以及本月的第五天）。有時他們會在整個納稅季節一直持有它。這正是我們在這裡看到的，在季度末你會看到這種飆升。它在納稅日期間一直有效，然後開始逐漸減弱。有點——這是非常季節性的。這只是比我們通常看到的數字要大一些。

Okay. And then separately, on the expense efforts where you're taking a closer look, and you mentioned some of the areas, are those measures that you've taken fully reflected in that updated expense outlook of $16.8 billion for the year? Or could your efforts drive a somewhat lower number as you evaluate the opportunity?

好的。然後，另外，關於您正在仔細研究的費用工作，您提到了一些領域，您所採取的這些措施是否充分反映在今年 168 億美元的最新費用前景中？或者，當您評估機會時，您的努力是否會導致數字略低？

So John, they're reflected in the efforts. That's why we brought it down to $200 million. And in the note, you'll see that's $16.8 billion at least. So we could pull additional levers as we continue to focus on this, but it is reflected in the guidance.

所以約翰，它們反映在努力中。這就是我們將其降低至 2 億美元的原因。在說明中，您會看到至少有 168 億美元。因此，當我們繼續關注這一點時，我們可以採取額外的手段，但這已經反映在指導中。

Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Just want to probe, Andy, a comment that you expect net interest income to go up in the second half of '24. Could you talk a little bit about what you see as the drivers of that?

安迪，我只是想探究一下您預計 24 年下半年淨利息收入將上升的評論。您能談談您認為的驅動因素嗎？

I'm going to let John start, and I'll add on.

我將讓約翰開始，我會補充。

Yes. The driver is really, Vivek, as we talked about the -- it comes down to the deposit side of things really first and foremost. And again, we're seeing the migration and rotation slow. It's just -- again, it's just taking some time. So eventually, as that goes, that will stabilize. And then you're going to have the asset -- continual asset churn on both loans as well as investment portfolio, things like that.

是的。正如我們所討論的，驅動程式確實是 Vivek，這歸結為首先也是最重要的事情的存款方面。我們再次看到遷移和輪換速度緩慢。只是——再說一次，這只是需要一些時間。因此，最終，隨著這種情況的發展，情況將會穩定下來。然後你就會擁有資產——貸款和投資組合等方面的資產持續流失。

I would also say that we've taken a lot of action to enhance return on equity. We're looking at capital-efficient ways to grow that. Those underlying themes continue, the Union growth opportunities that we see, and loan spreads have been favorable. So those are kind of the reasons that we see a positive nature and bend to the interest income that Andy talked about.

我還想說，我們已經採取了很多行動來提高股本回報率。我們正在尋找資本高效的方法來實現這一成長。這些基本主題仍在繼續，我們看到的聯盟成長機會以及貸款利差一直有利。因此，這些就是我們看到積極性並傾向於安迪談到的利息收入的原因。

So as John said, it's the repricing of loans, the expectation of stabilization of the flow of deposits and the securities portfolio churn that we talked about.

正如約翰所說，我們談論的是貸款的重新定價、存款流量穩定的預期以及證券投資組合的攪拌。

And the hedge that you did, which you said was an anomaly this quarter, could you talk a little bit about that? Was that for -- that's not going to have an ongoing impact? Was that just something that you put on for capital protection? Or what was it?

你所做的對沖，你說這是本季的異常情況，你能談談這一點嗎？這是因為——這不會產生持續的影響嗎？這只是你為了保護資本而採取的措施嗎？或者那是什麼？

Sure. Yes. So it really was more to get our asset sensitivity to be -- continue to be neutral. So those are actions that we took kind of as a onetime matter. So it's in the rate and go forward. That's why I kind of -- I called it as a temporary measure here in this quarter. Going forward, again, the driver here in investment portfolio is the $3 billion or so that's rolling off at lower yields and will be replaced at now current higher interest rates.

當然。是的。因此，更重要的是讓我們的資產敏感度繼續保持中性。所以這些都是我們一次採取的行動。所以這是在利率中並繼續前進。這就是為什麼我將其稱為本季的臨時措施。展望未來，投資組合的驅動因素是約 30 億美元，這些資金以較低的收益率滾動，並將以目前較高的利率取代。

Got it. Because you already said you were neutral, so that's what I was trying to understand, what sort of change to make that you had to do to make it go to neutral.

知道了。因為你已經說過你是中立的，所以這就是我試圖理解的，你必須做什麼樣的改變才能讓它變得中立。

Yes. Those are part of the actions that we take to get neutral. And those are the things that the team looks at on a frequent basis. We're actively managing that on a daily basis. We're looking at markets, we're taking actions, and this is just the result of that.

是的。這些是我們為保持中立而採取的行動的一部分。這些都是團隊經常關注的事情。我們每天都在積極管理這一點。我們正在關注市場，我們正在採取行動，這只是結果。

Okay. And is that what? Just received fixed swaps you added or terminated? Or what did you do?

好的。那是什麼？剛收到您已新增或終止的固定掉期？或者你做了什麼？

Well, specifically, they were just -- they were pay-fixed swaps that we had terminated. They were shorter-dated in nature, but it reduced the yield because the pay-fixed carry was -- had been gone. But that just neutralized our interest rate sensitivity.

嗯，具體來說，它們只是——它們是我們終止的固定工資掉期。它們本質上是短期的，但它降低了收益率，因為固定工資利差已經消失了。但這只是抵銷了我們對利率的敏感度。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Gerard Cassidy。

John and Andy, can you share with us -- obviously, you had a nice move up and your CET1 ratio is now at 10%. And we all know the Basel III endgame is coming. Nobody knows for certain when that final proposal will be in place. But it seems like, for the category 2 and 3 banks, that the unrealized securities losses will be carried through regulatory capital, which is not the case today, of course.

約翰和安迪，你們能和我們分享一下嗎——顯然，你們的進步很大，你們的 CET1 比率現在是 10%。我們都知道巴塞爾協議 III 的最後階段即將到來。沒有人確切知道最終提案何時會到位。但對於第二類和第三類銀行來說，未實現的證券損失似乎將透過監管資本來承擔，當然，現在的情況並非如此。

So with that as a backdrop, can you update us on where you want that CET1 ratio? And historically, you guys have been so good at giving back 75% to 80% of your annual earnings in dividends and buybacks. And when do you think we could possibly get back on that kind of track?

以此為背景，您能否向我們介紹您想要的 CET1 比率？從歷史上看，你們非常善於將年收入的 75% 到 80% 以股息和回購的形式返還。您認為我們什麼時候可以回到這樣的軌道？

Sure, Gerard. I'll start. First of all, just to give an update on the unrealized loss. So from a positive standpoint, part of the hedging and activities that we do that I just talked about in prior questions really help here because we had -- even though rates were up 30, 40 basis points throughout the quarter, our AOCI was fairly neutral. So the impact to the AOCI from the investment portfolio in pension right now is about 220 basis points versus the 10.0% that we have on common equity Tier 1.

當然，杰拉德。我開始吧。首先，僅提供未實現損失的最新情況。因此，從積極的角度來看，我剛才在之前的問題中談到的部分對沖和活動確實有幫助，因為我們——儘管整個季度利率上漲了 30、40 個基點，但我們的 AOCI 相當中性。因此，目前退休金投資組合對 AOCI 的影響約為 220 個基點，而我們對一級普通股的影響為 10.0%。

You're right. The Basel III endgame and all those sorts of things. That, along with, I would call CCAR results, for us, are two important milestones we need to see before we make any grand declarations on what our capital ratios will be going forward.

你說得對。巴塞爾協議 III 的最後階段以及諸如此類的事情。對我們來說，我稱之為 CCAR 結果是在我們對未來的資本比率做出任何重大聲明之前我們需要看到的兩個重要里程碑。

In the meantime, we'll continue to build our capital levels. And what we'll also do is focus on our returns. Obviously, the dividend is a large priority. Additional priority is investing in the company. And so we're pausing on share repurchases at this time as we build the capital. Over time, that will normalize back to kind of where we were. But this is kind of that transitional period that we're in.

同時，我們將繼續提高我們的資本水準。我們還將關注我們的回報。顯然，股利是重中之重。另一個優先事項是投資公司。因此，我們在建立資本時暫停了股票回購。隨著時間的推移，這將恢復到我們原來的狀態。但這是我們所處的過渡時期。

Very good. And coming back to -- stepping back for a moment. Now the Union Bank, I assume is fully integrated. Obviously, that has been your focus since that acquisition. Can you share with us your thoughts about de novo expansion? You had that expand down in the Charlotte area. Is there more to come now that, again, the acquisition is behind you? What's your thoughts there as you look out over the next 12 to 24 months?

非常好。回到——退後一步。我想現在聯合銀行已經完全整合了。顯然，自那次收購以來，這一直是您關注的焦點。能與我們分享您從頭擴張的想法嗎？你在夏洛特地區進行了擴張。既然收購再次結束，您還會有更多的事情要做嗎？展望未來 12 至 24 個月，您有何想法？

Yes, Gerard, we're focused on building our core customer base and deepening the relationships with the customers we have through those set of products and services that we offer. We have -- we do that through a number of mechanisms. One of them is through our branch system. One of them is through our relationship managers and working together. And that de novo effort is doing well. We also have partnerships with State Farm which increase our distribution base.

是的，傑拉德，我們專注於建立我們的核心客戶群，並透過我們提供的一系列產品和服務加深與客戶的關係。我們透過多種機製做到這一點。其中之一是透過我們的分支機構系統。其中之一是透過我們的客戶關係經理進行合作。這種從頭開始的努力進展順利。我們還與 State Farm 建立了合作夥伴關係，這擴大了我們的分銷基礎。

So we'll continue to look at all those levers, but the bottom line is that we continue to focus on more customers, deeper relationships across the diverse set of businesses that we have. And a lot of the opportunity, Gerard, is providing more services to customers who already are customers of U.S. Bank could benefit from some of the other products and services that we offer.

因此，我們將繼續關注所有這些槓桿，但最重要的是，我們將繼續關注更多的客戶，以及我們擁有的多元化業務中更深層的關係。傑拉德，許多機會正在為已經是美國銀行客戶的客戶提供更多服務，這些客戶可以從我們提供的一些其他產品和服務中受益。

And Andy, just a quick follow-up on the deepening the customer relationship that you just identified. When it comes to your middle market commercial or your core commercial account, if they only have a loan relationship versus one of your preferred accounts that have multiple relationships, that deepening you just mentioned, what kind of profit differential would you estimate there is between a customer that only has a loan versus your customer that has multiple products?

安迪，只是對您剛剛確定的深化客戶關係的快速跟進。當涉及到您的中間市場商業或核心商業帳戶時，如果他們只有貸款關係，而您的首選帳戶之一具有多種關係，那麼深化您剛才提到的，您估計兩者之間存在什麼樣的利潤差異只有貸款的客戶與擁有多種產品的客戶？

It's significantly higher. The more relationships, the higher the return, the more revenue, certainly. So if they have a loan only versus a loan plus deposit, plus treasury management, plus commercial products, plus payments, it all adds up.

它明顯更高。當然，關係越多，回報越高，收入就越多。因此，如果他們只有貸款，而不是貸款加存款，加上資金管理，加上商業產品，加上付款，那麼所有這些都會加起來。

Yes. No, I agree.

是的。不，我同意。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

There's obviously a lot of puts and takes, like as you think about the net interest margin over time. But we've seen a number of banks put out kind of this medium-term NIM target. And wondering if you have any thoughts on what a more sustainable NIM is for you guys. You talked about the securities kind of cash flowing $3 billion. I don't know if there's any kind of underwater swaps that are chunky and roll off. But I guess the question is, what do you think about NIM kind of medium term versus where you are right now?

顯然有很多看跌期權和看跌期權，就像你考慮一段時間內的淨利差一樣。但我們已經看到許多銀行提出了中期淨利差目標。想知道你們對於什麼是更永續的 NIM 對你們來說有什麼想法嗎？您談到了 30 億美元的證券現金流。我不知道是否有任何一種水下交換物是厚實的並且會滾落。但我想問題是，你對 NIM 的中期和現在的情況有何看法？

Yes. I'll start here. Matt, in terms of the net interest margin, it's going to obviously track net interest income over time, but it may bounce around. Some of the drivers of that, obviously, could be some of the things you just mentioned, the asset churn on the investment portfolio, the creep and -- on deposit costs and things like that. The cash levels and liquidity mix and things of that variety can also drive it as well. So we don't really have a call or a base of here's where our net interest margin. We're more focused on net interest income.

是的。我就從這裡開始吧。馬特，就淨利差而言，它顯然會隨著時間的推移跟踪淨利息收入，但它可能會反彈。顯然，其中的一些驅動因素可能是您剛才提到的一些事情，投資組合的資產流失、存款成本的蠕動以及類似的事情。現金水準和流動性組合以及各種因素也可以推動它。因此，我們實際上並沒有對淨利差的預測或基礎。我們更關注淨利息收入。

And then are there any -- again, the securities book, you're pretty clear on the cash flow there, and I think that's fairly long duration from a cash flow perspective. Any swaps that we should be mindful of that could go either way, looking out the next couple of years?

然後還有——再說一次，證券帳簿，你對那裡的現金流非常清楚，我認為從現金流的角度來看，這是相當長的持續時間。展望未來幾年，我們應該注意的任何互換都可能發生任何一種情況？

I'm sorry, Matt, I didn't...

對不起，馬特，我沒有...

Swaps. So again -- go ahead.

互換。再說一次——繼續吧。

The swap activity that we have. Yes. So just as a -- our hedging -- while we're very active in our hedging activities, we -- there's really no fundamental change. We continue to focus on pay-fixed swaps that have -- that hedge the investment portfolio. Obviously, we took some off that impacted, but it's a temporary thing. We still have well over 30% -- or well over 1/3 actually, of our risk hedged on the securities book.

我們進行的交換活動。是的。因此，就像我們的對沖一樣，雖然我們非常積極地進行對沖活動，但實際上並沒有根本性的變化。我們持續關注對沖投資組合的付費固定掉期。顯然，我們取消了一些受影響的內容，但這只是暫時的。我們仍然有超過 30%（實際上超過 1/3）的風險透過證券帳戶進行避險。

And then we have been adding receive-fixed swaps as well. Some of that spot, some of that forward-starting, depending on the nature. As the curve has come up here, and the curve has flattened and higher, that's an excellent opportunity for us to add some protection for the downside if and when that does occur. And all that adds up to be kind of that net neutral interest rate risk position that we're in.

然後我們也一直在加入接收固定掉期。有些是那個位置，有些是前瞻性的，這取決於性質。由於曲線已經上升到這裡，曲線已經變平並且更高，這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會，可以在這種情況確實發生時為下行提供一些保護。所有這些加起來就是我們所處的淨中性利率風險狀況。

Your next question comes from the line of Saul Martinez with HSBC.

你的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

I guess another one on NII. Your guidance does assume modest reacceleration of NII in the back end. I think the second half NII is, at the midpoint, 2% higher than the first half. But what's embedded in -- can you be more specific about what's embedded in the through the cycle deposit beta assumption?

我猜 NII 上還有一個。您的指導確實假設 NII 在後端適度重新加速。我認為下半年 NII 的中位數比上半年高 2%。但是，您能否更具體地說明循環存款貝塔假設中的內容？

And John, you mentioned noninterest-bearing could continue to move down a little bit from 17%. How far could -- what's your best guess now as to how much more deposit migration and where that ultimately could land at? And what's sort of embedded in the guidance for those measures?

約翰，您提到無息貸款可能會繼續從 17% 的基礎上略有下降。您現在對存款遷移量的最佳猜測是多少以及最終會到達哪裡？這些措施的指導方針包含了哪些內容？

Sure, Saul. It's John. So on the beta side specifically, that has continued to slow. I think we're only up 1 or 2 points here this quarter, and was 3 the prior quarter. So it clearly has slowed. And as I mentioned, deposit rates in the commercial side are very flat. They have not changed. Retail bounces around a little bit, but we're going to be competitive and follow the market there, of course. But all in, it's -- if you're higher for longer, it's going to -- it may creep up 1 point here or 2, but we feel like the low 50s is probably the right place for it, for that to be as we kind of look forward.

當然，索爾。是約翰。因此，特別是在測試版方面，這一速度持續放緩。我認為本季我們只上升了 1 或 2 個百分點，而上個季度是 3 個百分點。所以它顯然已經放緩了。正如我所提到的，商業方面的存款利率非常平坦。他們沒有改變。零售業略有反彈，但我們當然會保持競爭力並跟隨那裡的市場。但總而言之，如果你保持較高水平的時間更長，那麼它可能會在這裡攀升 1 點或 2 點，但我們認為 50 點以下可能是合適的位置，因為我們有點期待。

Okay. And in terms of noninterest bearing, the total liability or total deposits, where does...

好的。就無息而言，總負債或總存款，在哪裡......

Yes. I think that -- I think -- yes, as I mentioned a little bit on the noninterest-bearing side, we're at about 17%. It's -- customers are being more efficient and things like that. It could go down a couple of points as we stay a little bit lower -- at this higher-for-longer type period.

是的。我認為——我認為——是的，正如我在無息方面提到的，我們的利率約為 17%。客戶的效率正在提高，諸如此類。當我們保持在較低水平時，它可能會下跌幾個點——在這個較高且較長的時期。

Okay. Great. And I guess a follow-up on -- just a clarification on the deposits surge, your response to an earlier question on the deposit surge, Forgive me if I missed this, but the $15 billion to $20 billion surge, that's a normal surge in noninterest-bearing deposits? But I guess the question is, what's sort of the incremental to the normal surge? What was incremental this quarter to what you normally see? I'm just trying to get a base on which to forecast noninterest-bearing deposits going forward.

好的。偉大的。我想後續行動只是對存款激增的澄清，您對之前有關存款激增的問題的回應，如果我錯過了這一點，請原諒我，但是150 億至200 億美元的激增，這是存款激增的正常現象。但我想問題是，正常激增的增量是多少？本季度與您通常看到的相比有哪些增量？我只是想找到一個預測未來無利息存款的基礎。

Sure. So in terms of the surge, the surge in absolute terms was like it was about $20 billion or so. It's probably $10 or so billion above and beyond what we typically see for this type of the quarter.

當然。因此，就激增而言，絕對值的激增約為 200 億美元左右。這可能比我們通常看到的此類季度的金額高出 10 億美元左右。

Your next question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧。

Just kind of still a cleanup on NII. Just in very simple terms, if you're neutral to rates, why the guide lower for NII? I just want to make sure I have that rate. Did something happen that you didn't expect? Or you weren't fully neutral before this quarter?

只是 NII 上的清理工作。簡而言之，如果您對利率持中立態度，為什麼 NII 指南會降低？我只是想確保我有這個利率。發生了一些你沒有預料到的事情嗎？或者您在本季之前並未完全保持中立？

Yes. Sure. Mike, it's John. So the -- yes, we are neutral, to answer your question, to shocks to interest rates. I think what we're explaining is the behavioral aspect of it, which sometimes can be a little more challenging to judge at that point in time. And so again, it's a little bit -- the pace of rotation is a little bit. It's slowing down, just not as much as what we had anticipated. So again, rate shocks moving up and down, we continue to feel very good from a neutral standpoint. It's just that behavioral aspect that we've been talking about here.

是的。當然。麥克，這是約翰。因此，是的，我們對利率衝擊持中立態度來回答你的問題。我認為我們正在解釋的是它的行為方面，有時在那個時間點進行判斷可能更具挑戰性。再說一次，它是一點點——旋轉的速度是一點點。它正在放緩，只是沒有我們預期的那麼慢。因此，儘管利率波動上下波動，但從中性的角度來看，我們仍然感覺非常好。我們在這裡討論的只是行為面。

And do you have a number for fixed asset repricing, say, through the end of next year? Because I think that's what's driving your higher guide for the second half of this year and into next year. So you've talked about $3 billion of securities. But by the end of next year, how much do you have in fixed assets that should reprice? Do you have like one grand number for that?

你們有固定資產重新定價的數字嗎？因為我認為這就是推動今年下半年和明年更高指南的原因。您談到了價值 30 億美元的證券。但到明年年底，您有多少固定資產需要重新定價？你有一個大數字嗎？

Well, I think the way I would think about it is about half of our loan book is fixed rate component. The other half is floating rate component and spreads are widening. So you can see some of the floating rate components perhaps improve over time. We're seeing decent growth in payments -- or excuse me, credit card. And so some of the mix is also working at play here. And so commercial loans are coming on. They're coming on at wider spreads. So that's kind of how I think about that from a big picture perspective.

嗯，我認為我的想法是我們的貸款帳簿中約有一半是固定利率部分。另一半是浮動利率部分，利差正在擴大。因此，您可以看到一些浮動利率成分可能會隨著時間的推移而改善。我們看到付款——或者對不起，信用卡——出現了可觀的增長。因此，這裡一些組合也發揮了作用。因此商業貸款即將出現。它們的傳播範圍越來越廣。這就是我從大局角度思考這個問題的方式。

And then last one, loan spreads. I mean for a while there, it looked like we're headed into the recession and loan spreads were not widening. Now it looks like we're not having a recession and you have tight spreads in the capital markets and loan spreads are widening. I just -- why are loan spreads widening now? I guess that would be an incremental positive.

最後一項是貸款利差。我的意思是，有一段時間，我們似乎正在陷入衰退，貸款利差並沒有擴大。現在看起來我們並沒有陷入衰退，資本市場的利差很小，貸款利差正在擴大。我只是——為什麼貸款利差現在擴大了？我想這將是一個增量積極的結果。

Yes. So I think it's just different markets. So I think some of the drag you're seeing in the commercial volume side is capital markets. Spreads have been -- and the access has been very good. We saw that reflected in our fixed income capital market fees and things of that variety. And so -- but I think that has taken away volume to a certain extent. In other areas where access to capital markets isn't as pronounced, I would say there has been a decent opportunity for spreads there.

是的。所以我認為這只是不同的市場。所以我認為你在商業量方面看到的一些拖累是資本市場。利差一直很大，而且訪問也非常好。我們看到這反映在我們的固定收益資本市場費用和類似的事情上。所以——但我認為這在一定程度上減少了銷量。在其他進入資本市場的機會不那麼明顯的地區，我想說那裡有一個不錯的利差機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala)。

John, just a quick follow-up to make sure we get this right. The surge deposits that came in, I think you mentioned you expect about $15 billion to leave. Am I -- is all of that going out of noninterest-bearing? So the $91 billion number, does that go into the mid-70s as we think about the second quarter?

約翰，我只是快速跟進一下，以確保我們做對了。我想您曾提到您預計將有大約 150 億美元的存款湧入。我──這一切都是無息的嗎？那麼，910 億美元這個數字，當我們想到第二季時，這個數字是否已經進入了 70 年代中期？

Some of this is temporary. So the surge that happens, it can be a mix of both money market as well as NIB. It may surge the NIB for a brief period of time, but it's not going to be material to the quarter. So even though -- so the surge that we've been talking about can be a mix of both.

其中一些是暫時的。因此，出現的激增可能是貨幣市場和NIB 的混合。它可能會在短時間內導致 NIB 飆升，但這對本季不會產生重大影響。因此，儘管如此，我們一直在談論的激增可能是兩者的混合。

Mix of both. And so you do expect, just from a very -- dollar balance standpoint, NIB staying north of $80 billion. Is that fair?

兩者混合。因此，僅從美元餘額的角度來看，您確實預計 NIB 將保持在 800 億美元以上。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. I would expect, as we said, the rotation is continuing. So I wouldn't expect growth necessarily in DDA, but deposits overall, we do expect it to basically be stable.

是的。正如我們所說，我預計輪換仍在繼續。因此，我預計 DDA 不一定會增長，但總體存款，我們確實預計它會基本穩定。

And just a separate question. Given all these questions on NII, I think, would love to hear the degree of conservatism baked into your NII outlook. Because I guess the concern you're hearing is whether we see another downward guide 3 months from now. And yes, so in terms of what would go wrong in order for us to see another guide down on NII and for you to be surprised?

只是一個單獨的問題。考慮到所有這些關於 NII 的問題，我想，我很想聽聽您對 NII 觀點的保守程度。因為我猜您聽到的擔憂是我們是否會在 3 個月後看到另一個下行指引。是的，那麼，為了讓我們看到另一本關於 NII 的指南並讓您感到驚訝，會出現什麼問題呢？

Yes, Ebrahim, I don't look at it as conservative or aggressive. It's just the range. It's just the range that we provided, just given the uncertainty that's just in the market given all the factors that we've talked about here today.

是的，易卜拉欣，我不認為它是保守的或激進的。這只是範圍。這只是我們提供的範圍，考慮到我們今天在這裡討論的所有因素，市場存在不確定性。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Andersen, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。安徒生先生，我將電話轉回給您。

Thank you for listening to our earnings call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

感謝您收聽我們的財報電話會議。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。