美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the US Bancorp second quarter 2024 earnings conference call (Operator Instructions) Again, this call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 10 AM Central Time. I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for US Bancorp.

歡迎參加 US Bancorp 2024 年第二季度收益電話會議（操作員說明） 再次強調，本次電話會議將從今天中部時間上午 10 點左右開始進行錄音並可供重播。我現在將電話會議轉交給合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。

Thank you, Krista, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Andy Cecere; Vice Chair and CAO, Terry Dolan; and Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, John Stern. Together with their prepared remarks, Andy and John will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation, our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules can be found on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，克里斯塔，大家早安。今天，我們的董事長兼執行長 Andy Cecere 也加入了我的行列。副主席兼首席行政官 Terry Dolan；資深執行副總裁兼財務長約翰‧斯特恩 (John Stern)。安迪和約翰將連同他們準備好的發言一起參考幻燈片演示。簡報、我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表的副本可以在我們的網站 usbank.com 上找到。

Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page 2 of today's presentation, our press release and in reports on file with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Andy, Terry and John will take any questions that you have. I will now turn the call over to Andy.

請注意，今天的電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。今天的簡報第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿以及向 SEC 提交的報告中描述了可能對我們目前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。在我們準備好的演講之後，安迪、特里和約翰將回答您提出的任何問題。我現在會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'll begin on slide 3. In the second quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.97, which included $0.01 per share of notable item related to the FDIC special assessment. Excluding this one-time charge, we delivered earnings per share of $0.98. This quarter was highlighted by an increase in net interest income, continued fee income growth, prudent expense management, credit quality stabilization and strong capital accretion. Notably, our return on tangible common equity increased to 18.6% on an adjusted basis.

謝謝，喬治。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。除去這筆一次性費用，我們的每股收益為 0.98 美元。本季的亮點是淨利息收入增加、手續費收入持續成長、審慎的費用管理、信貸品質穩定和強勁的資本增值。值得注意的是，調整後我們的有形普通股報酬率增加至 18.6%。

Turning to slide 4. Revenue growth for the quarter was supported by improved spread income as well as continued growth across many of our fee-based businesses. On both a linked quarter and year-over-year basis, non-interest expense, as adjusted, was down, benefiting from cost synergies with Union Bank, prudent expense management and multiyear investments across the business that have resulted in greater efficiencies and enhanced operating effectiveness.

轉向投影片 4。無論是季度還是同比，調整後的非利息費用均有所下降，這得益於與聯合銀行的成本協同效應、審慎的費用管理以及整個業務的多年投資，這些投資提高了效率並增強了運營效力。

As I mentioned earlier, credit quality results were in line with our expectations as we saw stabilization in delinquency rates and a modest increase in NPAs. Average total deposits increased 2.2%, and we continue to see growth in consumer deposits despite industry and liquidity headwinds.

正如我之前提到的，信貸品質結果符合我們的預期，因為我們看到拖欠率趨於穩定，不良資產略有增加。平均總存款成長 2.2%，儘管面臨產業和流動性阻力，但我們仍看到消費者存款持續成長。

As of June 30, our tangible book value per share increased $23.15 -- to $23.15 or 2.8% better than last quarter and 10.1% higher than last year. Our CET1 capital ratio increased 30 basis points from the prior quarter and 120 basis points from last year to end the quarter at 10.3%. John will discuss some key takeaways from this year's stress test in his opening remarks.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們每股有形帳面價值增加了 23.15 美元，達到 23.15 美元，比上季度增長 2.8%，比去年增長 10.1%。我們的 CET1 資本比率比上一季增加了 30 個基點，比去年增加了 120 個基點，季末達到 10.3%。約翰將在開場白中討論今年壓力測試的一些關鍵要點。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, our return on average assets increased to 0.98% and return on average common equity improved to 12.6%. Our efficiency ratio also improved from the first quarter to 60.7% on an adjusted basis.

投影片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。剔除重要項目後，我們的平均資產報酬率上升至 0.98%，平均普通股報酬率上升至 12.6%。經過調整後，我們的效率也從第一季提高到60.7%。

Turning to Slide 6. Fee income represents just over 40% of total net revenue and benefited this quarter from high seasonal revenues across each of our payment businesses. Strong core growth in trust and investment management fees as well as improved treasury management revenue. Overall, diversified fee income businesses continue to operate at scale and provide earnings consistency through the cycle.

轉向投影片 6。信託和投資管理費用的核心成長強勁，資金管理收入有所改善。總體而言，多元化的費用收入業務繼續大規模運營，並在整個週期中提供獲利一致性。

And most importantly, we are encouraged by the progress we're making to deepen our most profitable client relationships, expand our product set and enhance our distribution channels. These efforts are positioning us well for continued growth and strategic differentiation.

最重要的是，我們在深化最有利可圖的客戶關係、擴大我們的產品系列和增強我們的分銷管道方面所取得的進展感到鼓舞。這些努力為我們的持續成長和策略差異化奠定了良好的基礎。

Let me now turn the call over to John, who will provide more detail on the quarter as well as forward-looking guidance.

現在讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊以及前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Andy. If you turn to slide 7, I'll start with a balance sheet summary followed by a discussion of second quarter earnings trends. Total average deposits increased $10.8 billion or 2.2% on a linked-quarter basis to $514 billion driven by stable institutional deposit balances and continued consumer balance growth. Average non-interest-bearing deposits decreased $1.4 billion or 1.6% on a linked-quarter basis as we continue to emphasize stickier relationship-based deposit generation. The pace of decline in non-interest-bearing balances continued to slow this quarter.

謝謝，安迪。如果您翻到投影片 7，我將從資產負債表摘要開始，然後討論第二季的獲利趨勢。在機構存款餘額穩定和消費者餘額持續成長的推動下，平均存款總額較上季增加 108 億美元，成長 2.2%，達到 5,140 億美元。由於我們繼續強調基於關係的存款生成，平均無息存款環比下降 14 億美元，即 1.6%。本季無息餘額下降速度持續放緩。

As the chart on the upper left shows, we are prudently managing our pricing as we remain focused on retaining and growing core operational relationships across the franchise. Average total loans were $375 billion, an increase of $3.6 billion or 1.0% linked quarter. The increase was driven by higher credit card loans from higher spend volumes and increased commercial loans from growth in corporate banking. Loan growth this quarter was partially offset by lower commercial real estate and total other retail loans.

正如左上角的圖表所示，我們正在謹慎管理我們的定價，因為我們仍然專注於保留和發展整個特許經營權的核心營運關係。平均貸款總額為 3,750 億美元，較上季增加 36 億美元，即 1.0%。這一成長的推動因素是支出量增加帶來的信用卡貸款增加以及企業銀行業務成長帶來的商業貸款增加。本季的貸款成長被商業房地產和其他零售貸款總額的下降部分抵消。

With elevated deposit levels, we opportunistically increased the size of our investment securities portfolio with short-dated, high-quality securities to better optimize cash levels. As a result, the ending balance on our investment portfolio was $168 billion as of June 30. Actions taken on the investment portfolio this quarter, together with approximately $3 billion of securities runoff resulted in an average yield increase to 3.15%, a 19-basis point increase from the prior quarter.

隨著存款水準的提高，我們利用短期優質證券擴大了投資證券投資組合的規模，以更好地優化現金水準。因此，截至6 月30 日，我們的投資組合期末餘額為1,680 億美元。成長較上一季增加。

Going forward, we would expect the balance on the investment portfolio to remain relatively flat to the current level and for the reinvestment benefit from quarterly securities runoff to be approximately 6 to 8 basis points on average based on current rates. Slide 8 highlights our credit quality performance. Asset quality metrics continue to develop in line with expectations, and we remain appropriately reserved for potential adverse economic conditions.

展望未來，我們預計投資組合的餘額將保持相對平穩於當前水平，並且根據當前利率，季度證券徑流帶來的再投資收益平均約為 6 至 8 個基點。幻燈片 8 重點介紹了我們的信用品質表現。資產品質指標持續符合預期發展，我們仍對潛在的不利經濟狀況保持適當的保留。

In the second quarter, delinquencies were flat sequentially. Non-performing assets increased approximately 3.7% linked quarter, reflecting a slower pace of change. The ratio of non-performing assets to loans and other real estate was 49 basis points at June 30, compared with 48 basis points at March 31 and 29 basis points a year ago. Our second quarter net charge-off ratio of 58 basis points increased 5 basis points from the first quarter in line with our expectations, and we continue to expect our net charge-off ratio to approach 60 basis points in the second half of this year.

第二季度，拖欠率環比持平。不良資產季增約 3.7%，反映出變動速度放緩。截至6月30日，不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為49個基點，而3月31日為48個基點，一年前為29個基點。我們第二季的淨核銷率為 58 個基點，較第一季增加 5 個基點，符合我們的預期，我們繼續預期今年下半年的淨核銷率將接近 60 個基點。

Our allowance for credit losses as of June 30 totaled $7.9 billion or 2.1% of period-end loans. Slide 9 provides a more detailed earnings summary. In the second quarter, we reported $0.97 per diluted share, which included $0.01 per share or a $26 million charge for an increase in the FDIC special assessment following last year's bank failures.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 79 億美元，佔期末貸款的 2.1%。投影片 9 提供了更詳細的收益摘要。第二季度，我們報告攤薄後每股收益為 0.97 美元，其中包括每股 0.01 美元，或去年銀行倒閉後 FDIC 特別評估增加的 2,600 萬美元費用。

Turning to slide 10. Net interest income on a taxable equivalent basis totaled approximately $4.05 billion, an increase of 0.9% on a linked quarter basis. The increase in net interest income this quarter was driven by a combination of deposit volume growth, pricing stabilization and slower migration as well as fixed asset repricing, improved loan mix and other actions taken on the investment portfolio to optimize cash balances.

轉向投影片 10。本季淨利息收入的成長是由存款量成長、定價穩定和遷移放緩以及固定資產重新定價、貸款組合改善和為優化現金餘額而對投資組合採取的其他行動共同推動的。

Elevated deposit levels and higher on balance sheet liquidity drove a 3-basis point decline in net interest margin this quarter to 2.67%. Slide 11 highlights trends in non-interest income. Fee income increased $115 million or 4.3% on a linked-quarter basis, driven by seasonally higher payments revenue and stronger mortgage banking fees, which included an approximate $30 million gain on sale of mortgage servicing rights. This increase was partially offset by a slight decrease in commercial product revenue due to lower corporate bond fees and losses on investment securities sales of $36 million.

存款水準上升和資產負債表流動性增加導致本季淨利差下降 3 個基點至 2.67%。幻燈片 11 突顯了非利息收入的趨勢。由於付款收入季節性增加和抵押貸款銀行費用增加（其中包括出售抵押貸款服務權帶來的約 3000 萬美元收益），費用收入環比增長 1.15 億美元，即 4.3%。這一增長被商業產品收入的小幅下降所部分抵消，該下降是由於公司債費用下降以及投資證券銷售損失 3,600 萬美元造成的。

Non-interest income through the first six months of the year increased 5.4% on a year-over-year basis as we continue to benefit from deepening client relationships across our fee businesses. Turning to Slide 12. Noninterest expense, as adjusted, decreased $6 million or 0.1% on a linked-quarter basis. The decrease was primarily driven by lower compensation and employee benefit expense, which was partially offset by higher net occupancy and equipment as well as marketing and business development costs.

今年前六個月的非利息收入年增 5.4%，因為我們繼續受益於深化收費業務的客戶關係。轉向投影片 12。下降的主要原因是薪酬和員工福利費用減少，但淨入住率和設備以及行銷和業務開發成本增加部分抵消了下降。

Year over year, non-interest expense as adjusted decreased $71 million or 1.7% and as we prudently managed expenses, identified operational efficiencies across the business and realized synergies from the Union Bank acquisition. Turning to slide 13. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.3% as of June 30 was reflective of a 30-basis point increase from the first quarter and a 120-basis point improvement compared to last year.

與去年同期相比，調整後的非利息費用減少了 7,100 萬美元，即 1.7%，因為我們審慎管理費用，確定了整個業務的營運效率，並透過收購聯合銀行實現了協同效應。轉向投影片 13。

On June 26, the Federal Reserve released its 2024 stress test results. Consistent with the industry, the Fed's modeled results were largely reflective of an assumption taken to significantly lower fee income and increased provision expense in stress, which resulted in a 60-basis point increase to our preliminary stress capital buffer of 3.1%. We remain well capitalized and prepared to manage any potential industry stress that might result from a severe macroeconomic downturn.

6月26日，聯準會公佈2024年壓力測試結果。與業界一致，聯準會的建模結果在很大程度上反映了在壓力下顯著降低費用收入和增加撥備費用的假設，這導致我們初步的壓力資本緩衝增加了 60 個基點 3.1%。我們仍然資本充足，並準備好應對宏觀經濟嚴重衰退可能帶來的任何潛在行業壓力。

I will now provide forward-looking guidance on slide 14, which is consistent with our previous guidance. We expect net interest income for the third quarter on an FTE basis to be relatively stable to the second quarter. Full year 2024 net interest income on an FTE basis is expected to be in the range of $16.1 billion to $16.4 billion. For the full year, we expect to achieve mid-single-digit growth in non-interest income as adjusted. We continue to expect full-year non-interest expense as adjusted of $16.8 billion or lower.

我現在將在幻燈片 14 上提供前瞻性指導，這與我們之前的指導一致。我們預計第三季以 FTE 計算的淨利息收入將與第二季相對穩定。 2024 年全年以 FTE 計算的淨利息收入預計將在 161 億美元至 164 億美元之間。就全年而言，我們預計調整後的非利息收入將實現中個位數成長。我們繼續預期調整後的全年非利息支出為 168 億美元或更低。

Let me now turn it back to Andy for closing remarks.

現在讓我請安迪做結束語。

Thanks, John. I'll finish up on slide 15. Second quarter results highlighted the resiliency of our business model that features a highly diversified revenue mix, strong risk management discipline and a robust earnings and capital generation profile. We remain focused on our core competencies and are aggressively building upon our key differentiators.

謝謝，約翰。我將在投影片 15 上結束。我們仍然專注於我們的核心競爭力，並積極打造我們的關鍵差異化優勢。

The investments we're making across the businesses are showing through in the form of enhanced customer acquisition, improved client experiences and deeper relationships that are further propelling our growth story. Expense management as a key priority for us, and we remain focused on our target of positive operating leverage in the second half of this year and beyond.

我們在各個業務領域的投資以增強客戶獲取、改善客戶體驗和加深關係的形式展現出來，這些都進一步推動了我們的成長故事。費用管理是我們的首要任務，我們仍然專注於今年下半年及以後的積極營運槓桿目標。

Looking ahead, we are well positioned to continue to build upon our solid foundation in already established interconnectedness across the business with the scale, reach and product capabilities that allow us to deliver industry-leading returns well into the future. Let me close by thanking our employees for everything they do to make us the destination of choice for many clients, communities and shareholders we serve. We'll now open up the call for a Q&A.

展望未來，我們處於有利地位，可以繼續在整個業務領域業已建立的互聯互通的堅實基礎上繼續發展，其規模、覆蓋範圍和產品能力使我們能夠在未來提供行業領先的回報。最後，我要感謝我們的員工所做的一切，使我們成為我們所服務的許多客戶、社區和股東的首選目的地。我們現在將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.

大家早安。感謝您提出我的問題。

Morning, Scott. John.

早安，史考特。約翰。

Hey. John, I was hoping you could please sort of discuss the puts and takes within the NII trajectory from here. It looks like we would hopefully get a bump in the fourth quarter after a stable third quarter as we sort of assume the midpoint of the full year range. I guess maybe just a thought or two on factors that would cause you to come in either toward the high end or the low end of the full-year range, please?

嘿。約翰，我希望您能從這裡開始討論 NII 軌跡中的看跌期權和索取期權。看起來我們希望在第三季穩定之後，第四季會出現成長，因為我們假設全年範圍的中點。我想也許只是對導致您進入全年範圍的高端或低端的因素的一兩個想法，好嗎？

Sure, Scott. We're -- well, first of all, we're pleased to see our net interest income grow and we like the actions that we've taken to position ourselves for the future deposit, rotation and rates paid have stabilized loan mix has improved. Our fixed asset repricing -- earning asset repricing continues to march on. And we've been opportunistically working with the investment portfolio to deploy excess liquidity.

當然，斯科特。首先，我們很高興看到我們的淨利息收入成長，我們喜歡我們為未來存款、輪換和支付利率而採取的行動，穩定了貸款組合併得到改善。我們的固定資產重新定價－獲利資產重新定價持續進行。我們一直在機會主義地與投資組合合作部署過剩的流動性。

So if you think about some of these things going forward, the higher and lower end of the range, I'd say a couple of different things. First of all, I would just say, as I mentioned, we expect stable third quarter net interest income. And then there -- from there, we do expect growth.

因此，如果你考慮未來的一些事情，範圍的上限和下限，我會說一些不同的事情。首先，我只想說，正如我所提到的，我們預計第三季淨利息收入將保持穩定。然後，從那裡開始，我們確實預計會出現增長。

We would anticipate that the pluses and minuses is going to be depending upon deposit rotation and beta. We do expect some level of rotation out of deposits going forward, but it's going to be relatively modest. And as you can tell, it slowed.

我們預計優點和缺點將取決於存款輪換和貝塔值。我們確實預期未來存款會出現一定程度的輪動，但幅度相對較小。正如你所知，它放緩了。

In terms of rate paid, that's going to be dependent on the market. But as you can tell, that has slowed as well, and we feel good about our positioning for rate cuts as we move forward should they occur. Our earning assets, we know are going to be formulaic and continue to reprice, whether that's the investment portfolio or the mortgage book. We expect kind of in that 6- to 8-basis point range on average given current levels.

就支付率而言，這將取決於市場。但如你所知，降息也已經放緩，而且我們對降息的定位感到滿意，因為如果降息發生，我們就會繼續前進。我們知道，我們的獲利資產將變得公式化，並繼續重新定價，無論是投資組合還是抵押貸款。在給定當前水準的情況下，我們預計平均會在 6 到 8 個基點範圍內。

And then loan growth, we assume to be very modest in this -- in our forecast kind of going forward, just kind of given the loan dynamics that we're seeing. And then finally, I would just say, although it's not as going to be meaningful for 2024 is just the actions of the Fed and what they do, whether they cut or not. So those are kind of the puts and takes as we kind of think about the next couple of quarters.

然後，考慮到我們所看到的貸款動態，我們認為貸款成長在我們的預測中非常溫和。最後，我只想說，雖然對 2024 年來說意義不大，但聯準會的行動及其所做的事情，無論是否降息，都沒有意義。因此，這些都是我們在考慮未來幾季時的看跌期權和看跌期權。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe if I could ask you to delve a little more deeply into one portion of that. Just you noted modest loan growth here going forward. What are you all seeing in terms of commercial loan demand? I guess I sort of asked within the backdrop of the modest outlook, but your average commercial loan growth this quarter looked a little more favorable than what we've seen from peers. So just curious as to sort of the insight base on that.

好的。完美的。然後也許我可以請你更深入地研究其中的一部分。剛才您提到了未來貸款的溫和成長。大家對商業貸款需求有何看法？我想我是在前景溫和的背景下問的，但本季的平均商業貸款成長看起來比我們從同行那裡看到的要有利一些。只是好奇以此為基礎的洞察力。

So I think on loan growth, we did see pockets of loan growth occur in the corporate loan book. You know, but I think our overall thesis really hasn't changed over the last several quarters. The loan growth environment remains tepid. It remains -- there's caution in the clients, but there's a lot of interest rate movement. And I am sure that will -- that could spark some things. But overall, it's still a very tepid market. We just happened to find a good -- some pockets of growth on the corporate loan book this quarter.

因此，我認為在貸款成長方面，我們確實看到企業貸款帳目中出現了一些貸款成長。你知道，但我認為我們的整體論點在過去幾個季度中確實沒有改變。貸款成長環境依然不溫不火。情況依然如此——客戶持謹慎態度，但利率變動很大。我相信這會——這可能會引發一些事情。但總體而言，這仍然是一個非常不溫不火的市場。我們只是碰巧在本季的企業貸款帳簿上發現了一些良好的成長。

Perfect. Okay, good. Thank you very much.

完美的。好的。非常感謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning. I guess maybe, John, just following up on the NII. By my math, like your fourth quarter could be as high as $4.3 billion. So I appreciate the puts and takes you provided earlier. As we think about the NII trajectory from your -- in a rate cut scenario, just remind us in terms of the positioning of the balance sheet what 4 to 6 to 8 cuts would imply and flex on the deposit side given sort of your corporate institutional makeup?

早安.約翰，我想也許只是在跟進 NII。根據我的計算，第四季的營收可能高達 43 億美元。因此，我很感謝您之前提供的看跌期權和看跌期權。當我們考慮您的 NII 軌跡時——在降息情況下，請提醒我們資產負債表的定位，鑑於您的公司機構類型，4 至 6 至 8 次削減意味著什麼，並在存款方面進行調整化妝品？

Sure. Thanks, Ebrahim. So the way I think about potential rate cut shift and change in market there is that we are well positioned given the mix of our deposit base. So approximately 50% of our our balances are retail-based, and about 50% of our balances are institutional or corporate type balances. And in a cut environment of those institutional corporate balances, the beta, if you will, of those are going to go down as quickly as they came up. So we feel very good about the repositioning of that.

當然。謝謝，易卜拉欣。因此，我對潛在降息轉變和市場變化的看法是，考慮到我們的存款基礎結構，我們處於有利地位。因此，我們大約 50% 的餘額是零售型的，大約 50% 的餘額是機構或公司類型的餘額。在這些機構企業餘額減少的環境中，如果你願意的話，貝塔值的下降速度會和上升的速度一樣快。因此，我們對重新定位感到非常滿意。

On the retail side, I would just say that it's -- there'll always be some arc to the retail. So there will be probably some repricing that occurs -- [that still occur] at higher levels. But over time, those balances will come down. And so overall, it gives us an advantage as the curve in theory, should start to steepen and you have a lower short-term rate and a higher longer-term rate that allows for continued earning asset favorability on the repricing side of things.

在零售方面，我只想說零售業總是會有一些弧線。因此，可能會發生一些重新定價——在更高的水平上[仍然會發生]。但隨著時間的推移，這些餘額將會下降。因此，總的來說，它給我們帶來了優勢，因為理論上曲線應該開始變陡，並且短期利率較低，長期利率較高，從而可以在重新定價方面持續獲得資產優惠。

Got it. And I guess just separately, when you think about the outlook for the back half on fee revenue growth, the mid-single digits, where do you think fee revenue growth is going to be driven? What categories are going to drive that growth? Where do you expect some more moderation relative to what we've seen in the first half of the year? Thank you.

知道了。我想單獨地，當你考慮下半年費用收入成長的前景時，中間個位數，你認為費用收入成長將在哪裡推動？哪些類別將推動這種成長？與我們今年上半年所看到的情況相比，您認為哪些方面會更加溫和？謝謝。

Sure. I think on the fee side of things, we had a solid quarter, but we continue to expect momentum in the various categories. And it's going to be a combination of all the main ones. It's going to be payments, it's going to be our trust investment management fees, and it's going to be in the capital market space is probably the three areas that I would point you to.

當然。我認為在費用方面，我們有一個穩定的季度，但我們仍然期望各個類別都有動力。它將是所有主要內容的組合。這將是付款，這將是我們的信託投資管理費，這將是資本市場空間，這可能是我要向您指出的三個領域。

On the payment side of things, we continue to see strong core competencies and whether in merchant processing, you're talking about our tech-led areas. If you're talking about our corporate payments side of things, you're looking at us starting to lap some of the things in freight and fleet. And on credit, credit card, we continue to see strong spend levels. So those are all going to be positive things for us as we move forward.

在支付方面，我們繼續看到強大的核心能力，無論是在商業處理方面，還是在談論我們的技術主導領域。如果您談論的是我們的企業支付方面的事情，那麼您就會看到我們開始關注貨運和車隊方面的一些事情。在信用卡方面，我們繼續看到強勁的支出水平。因此，隨著我們前進，這些對我們來說都是正面的事情。

The trust and investment management fees as well as the capital markets continue to see a very strong market backdrop, and we have been doing very well in terms of investment in those businesses and as well as just utilizing our client base and deepening relationships there in a number of different facets. And then those are going to be kind of the tailwinds that we see that position us well for continuing our guidance here in terms of mid-single-digit growth for fees.

信託和投資管理費以及資本市場繼續保持非常強勁的市場背景，我們在這些業務的投資以及利用我們的客戶群和深化與這些業務的關係方面一直做得很好。然後，這些將成為我們看到的有利因素，使我們能夠繼續保持我們在費用中個位數成長的指導。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Good morning. I know we already talked a little bit about the loan growth piece, but going through the slide deck, you highlighted that there's utilization rate increase. So I guess I'm just wondering -- this -- and it's important, right, because at least you're the first institution I've seen this quarter that's how the utilization increase. Do you think that's a function of the types of industries where you're seeing utilization increase or is that more your new geographies where perhaps more focused attention on new clients is driving that. I would just like [ask] that.

你好。早安.我知道我們已經討論了一些關於貸款成長的問題，但是透過幻燈片，您強調了利用率的增加。所以我想我只是想知道這一點，這很重要，對吧，因為至少你們是我本季看到的第一個機構，這就是利用率如何增加的。您認為這是您看到利用率增加的行業類型的函數，還是您的新地區可能更專注於新客戶正在推動這一成長。我只是想[問]這個。

Sure. Thanks, Betsy. So in terms of utilization, it did tick up. I would say it's pretty modest. And I would say it's pretty much in line with where we've seen in the past. I wouldn't point to it as some new trend that we're going to see continued utilization investment or increase. I think it's really more of a function of the loan mix that we saw this quarter. Some of the loans that were brought on came at a high utilization level versus some of the things that rolled off. So I just think it's more of a mix shift rather than a change in trend.

當然。謝謝，貝特西。因此，就利用率而言，它確實有所上升。我想說這是相當謙虛的。我想說，這與我們過去所看到的情況非常一致。我不會將其視為我們將看到持續的利用投資或增加的新趨勢。我認為這實際上更多地取決於我們本季看到的貸款組合。與一些滾存的貸款相比，一些發放的貸款利用率很高。所以我認為這更多的是一種混合轉變，而不是趨勢的變化。

Okay. Thanks. And then just on the credit outlook here. I got a sense that maybe there was a little bit more credit coming through towards the back half of the year. Is that right? Or did I get that wrong?

好的。謝謝。然後是關於信用前景。我有一種感覺，今年下半年可能會有更多的信貸流入。是對的嗎？還是我弄錯了？

Well, I don't think -- well, first of all, our guidance really hasn't changed from a credit standpoint. It continues to be -- it's stabilizing. It's as expected from a net charge-off perspective, we came in at 58 basis points. We would anticipate approaching 60 basis points here in the back half of the year, it's kind of how we're thinking about the charge-off. But things like delinquencies and the non-performing, those metrics have come in, have stabilized and have come in very nicely, giving us confidence in our credit outlook.

嗯，我不認為——嗯，首先，從信用的角度來看，我們的指導確實沒有改變。它仍然在穩定。從淨沖銷的角度來看，這符合預期，我們的利率為 58 個基點。我們預計今年下半年將接近 60 個基點，這就是我們考慮沖銷的方式。但像拖欠和不良貸款這樣的指標已經出現，已經穩定下來，而且效果非常好，讓我們對信用前景充滿信心。

Okay. And are you already reserved for these NCOs? Just wondering if there's a reserve release behind that as well.

好的。您已經為這些士官預留了嗎？只是想知道背後是否還有一個儲備版本。

Yeah. We feel very much appropriately reserved for the book that we have. We saw a little bit of increase in our reserve build this quarter, just simply because of growth, particularly in cards and things of the like. So that's kind of what has been the driver on the reserve side.

是的。我們覺得我們對這本書的保留是非常恰當的。本季我們的儲備金建設略有增加，這僅僅是因為成長，特別是在卡片和類似事物方面。這就是預備隊的驅動力。

Okay. That's super. Thanks so much.

好的。太棒了。非常感謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Hi. Good morning. My first question is for you, Andy. I think what was really striking about this quarter is that the balance sheet growth was impressive on both sides of the sheet and really outperforming peers. At the same time, I think we were all surprised by the stress test results, especially given we thought that the PPNR dynamics with MUFG fully baked in would be a little bit cleaner. And so if I'm calculating this right, your adjusted CET1 would be 8% this quarter versus 7.6%. And I'm wondering, as we think about balancing those dynamics, how are you thinking about managing growth relative to this sort of changing unpredictable element of the SCB plus.

你好。早安.我的第一個問題是問你的，安迪。我認為本季真正引人注目的是資產負債表兩側的成長都令人印象深刻，而且確實優於同業。同時，我認為我們都對壓力測試結果感到驚訝，特別是考慮到我們認為 MUFG 完全烘焙後的 PPNR 動態會更乾淨一些。因此，如果我計算正確，本季調整後的 CET1 將為 8%，而上一季為 7.6%。我想知道，當我們考慮平衡這些動態時，您如何考慮相對於 SCB plus 中這種不斷變化的不可預測因素來管理成長。

Obviously, you have done a great job at managing risk-weighted assets last year. And obviously, there's a burn-off rate to the AOCI. At the same time, rates are staying a little bit higher for longer, and there's a huge debate on what's going to happen to the belly of the curve even if everyone subscribes to Fed cuts. So wondering how we should think about balance sheet management from here, especially in light of the good growth that you experienced this quarter?

顯然，去年您在管理風險加權資產方面做得很好。顯然，AOCI 有一個消耗率。同時，利率在較長時間內保持在較高水平，即使每個人都同意聯準會降息，曲線的腹部會發生什麼，也存在著巨大的爭論。那麼想知道我們應該如何從這裡考慮資產負債表管理，特別是考慮到您本季經歷的良好成長？

Sure. Thanks, Erika. And let me start on the CCAR results. So as you think about MUFG, the component that we were focused on there that did happen was the expense component that came down. So that was as expected.

當然。謝謝，埃里卡。讓我從 CCAR 結果開始。因此，當你想到三菱日聯金融集團時，我們所關注的部分確實發生了，那就是費用部分的下降。所以這正如預期的那樣。

The component that went up versus the Fed last year was the fee income component, and we don't have a lot of clarity or transparency into why that happened. It happened for a number of banks. And it happened in spite of the fact that our fee growth is actually even positive. So that was the part that was the driver of the increased SCB for us and for a number of other banks.

去年與聯準會相比上升的部分是費用收入部分，我們對於為什麼會發生這種情況並沒有太多的清晰度或透明度。許多銀行都發生過這種情況。儘管我們的費用增長實際上是積極的，但這種情況還是發生了。因此，這就是我們和許多其他銀行增加渣打銀行的驅動力。

Let me take a step back and let me talk about capital and the balance sheet overall. As we've talked about in the past, Erika, our priorities from a capital distribution standpoint, haven't changed. The first is investing in the business. Second is dividends and third is buybacks. And so as part of this year's stress test, as we've talked about, our planned capital distribution assumed an increase to the quarterly dividend of about 2% starting in the fourth quarter.

讓我退後一步，談談資本和整體資產負債表。正如我們過去談到的，艾莉卡，從資本分配的角度來看，我們的優先事項並沒有改變。首先是對企業的投資。第二是股息，第三是回購。因此，正如我們所討論的，作為今年壓力測試的一部分，我們計劃的資本分配假設從第四季度開始將季度股息增加約 2%。

And as you saw and as you referenced, our CET1 ratio is 10.3% this quarter. So we continue to have strong capital accretion each quarter. We expect to be well above our fully loaded CAT II capital targets well before the cross -- we will cross that threshold. So from a capital standpoint, we're comfortable with our levels and our ability to accrete 20 to 25 basis points a quarter.

正如您所看到和提到的，本季我們的 CET1 比率為 10.3%。因此，我們每季都會持續保持強勁的資本增值。我們預計在交叉之前遠高於滿載的 CAT II 資本目標——我們將跨越這個門檻。因此，從資本的角度來看，我們對自己的水平以及每季增加 20 至 25 個基點的能力感到滿意。

So the one open item, as you all know, is the final Basel III end game rules. And while we prefer to have those clarified, before revising our capital and distribution targets, we will assess whatever information we have available and update on our capital distribution, our targets as well as our return targets at Investor Day on September 12.

因此，眾所周知，有一個懸而未決的項目是巴塞爾協議 III 的最終遊戲規則。雖然我們希望澄清這些問題，但在修改我們的資本和分配目標之前，我們將評估現有的所有信息，並在 9 月 12 日投資者日更新我們的資本分配、我們的目標以及回報目標。

So Andrew, just as my follow-up is based on what you've just told us, it doesn't seem as if, as we think about the rest of 2024 and the CCAR year, '24 October 1, September 24, 30 of next year, it doesn't sound like we should expect this similar active balance sheet management in terms of growth as we saw in '23.

所以安德魯，正如我的後續行動是基於你剛才告訴我們的，當我們考慮 2024 年剩餘時間和 CCAR 年度，「10 月 1 日 24 日，9 月 24 日，30 日」時，情況似乎並非如此。明年，聽起來我們不應該期望像23 年那樣在成長方面出現類似的主動資產負債表管理。

So as we've talked about it, I think most of the capital accretion going forward, Erika will be through normal earnings accretion. And as we talked about, we expect that to be 20 to 25 basis points. We had a little bit of a benefit this quarter from additional RWA optimization, but going forward, I would think about that 20 to 25 basis points a quarter.

正如我們所討論的，我認為埃里卡未來的大部分資本增值將透過正常的收益增值來實現。正如我們所討論的，我們預計該數字將為 20 至 25 個基點。本季我們從額外的 RWA 優化中獲得了一些好處，但展望未來，我會考慮每季 20 到 25 個基點。

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

好的，完美。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

肯·烏斯丁和傑弗里斯。

Hey, guys. Good morning. I just wanted to ask you to dig in a little bit on the payments business. Obviously, the sequential math worked as normal, but the year-over-year growth looked like it slowed from 4% in the first quarter to 3% in the second. I know we have some easier comps coming up in the second half. But can you just kind of help us understand just the absolute trajectory within the three business areas? And what -- how do you expect that kind of growth rate to go aside from just comps? Thanks.

大家好。早安.我只是想請您深入了解支付業務。顯然，連續計算正常，但年成長似乎從第一季的 4% 放緩至第二季的 3%。我知道下半場我們會有一些更簡單的比賽。但您能否幫助我們了解這三個業務領域的絕對軌跡？除了比較之外，您如何預期這種成長率？謝謝。

Sure. So thanks, Ken. And I do agree. I think we do expect momentum. Part of that is comps. We're not obviously relying on that. If I kind of think about the different businesses here, maybe I'll just start with merchant processing. We have seen a very good core growth in our tech-led initiative. That's about one-third of our sales now and has been growing at a very strong rate. The margins on that business have -- we are seeing nice expansion there.

當然。謝謝，肯。我確實同意。我認為我們確實期待勢頭。其中一部分是比較。我們顯然並不依賴於此。如果我考慮這裡的不同業務，也許我會從商業處理開始。我們在以技術為主導的計劃中看到了非常好的核心成長。這大約占我們現在銷售額的三分之一，並且一直以非常強勁的速度成長。該業務的利潤率已經——我們看到了那裡的良好擴張。

And a lot of our non-travel categories are really seeing very good growth. So those are kind of the tailwinds. We have seen some headwinds this quarter, particularly on travel volumes in Europe. But that is something that we hope that will reverse and things of that nature. But otherwise, we feel like we're positioned well on the merchant side of things.

我們的許多非旅遊類別確實看到了非常好的成長。所以這些都是順風車。本季我們看到了一些不利因素，特別是歐洲的旅行量。但我們希望這種情況能夠扭轉，並且發生類似性質的事情。但除此之外，我們覺得自己在商家方面處於有利地位。

On the retail card side, credit card spend is strong and constructive. I would say the Union Bank client acquisition, we're continuing to increase the penetration rate there. But we did see a little bit of a decrease as well just because of risk mitigation around prepaid card, which may pressure for the -- pressure this quarter but may linger into a couple of quarters as we move forward. But still, we think that the strong growth on the retail side of things is going to continue to be very helpful.

在零售卡方面，信用卡支出強勁且具建設性。我想說的是，在聯合銀行客戶獲取方面，我們正在繼續提高那裡的滲透率。但我們確實看到了一點下降，只是因為預付卡的風險緩解，這可能會給本季度帶來壓力，但隨著我們前進，這種壓力可能會持續到幾個季度。但我們仍然認為零售方面的強勁成長將繼續非常有幫助。

And then on the corporate side of things, we are starting to get into that inflection point of lapping freight and fleet and all those sorts of things as well as our bank card is really performing quite well. And so I think those are really some of the things I think, especially on corporate payments, we -- by lapping that fleet kind of in the third quarter, so it's going to allow for very strong rates as we think about the fourth quarter. So at a high level, we just think that there's momentum on the side of things that will allow us to grow and grow nicely.

然後在公司方面，我們開始進入貨運和車隊的轉折點，所有這些事情以及我們的銀行卡確實表現得很好。因此，我認為這些確實是我認為的一些事情，特別是在企業支付方面，我們在第三季度對車隊進行了一些調整，因此當我們考慮第四季度時，這將允許非常強勁的利率。因此，在高水準上，我們只是認為事物方面存在動力，可以讓我們成長並且成長得很好。

Great. Thank you. One more follow-up on NII. You had a really good second quarter result, but the outlook for the third quarter is stable, and that's with an extra day. And I'm just wondering, can you just walk us through like what's the hold back in terms of NI not just growing from here? Was there either some things that helped in the second that don't recur. It looked like your securities yields were a lot higher as one example, but I'm not sure if that would have been it. So like why don't we just see the growth straight up from that [40 to 50] zone we just saw in the second quarter?

偉大的。謝謝。 NII 的另一個後續行動。第二季的業績非常好，但第三季的前景很穩定，而且還多了一天。我只是想知道，您能否向我們介紹一下 NI 的發展阻礙是什麼？是否有一些在第二次有幫助但不會再發生的事情？作為一個例子，看起來你們的證券收益率要高得多，但我不確定是否就是這樣。那麼為什麼我們不直接看到從第二季度我們剛剛看到的 [40 到 50] 區域的增長呢？

Sure. Well, I think it just comes down to the question earlier that is really around the range of outcomes that -- what's going to drive it. And it's really going to be around the deposit behavior and thing. Now we saw very good trends in terms of rotation out of DDA. That pace has certainly slowed. We continue to expect it to slow moving forward, but it doesn't mean it's over, right? And so there's that component.

當然。嗯，我認為這只是歸結為之前的問題，這個問題實際上圍繞著結果的範圍——什麼將推動它。這實際上將圍繞存款行為和事物。現在我們看到 DDA 的輪換趨勢非常好。這一速度肯定已經放緩。我們仍然預計它會緩慢前進，但這並不意味著它已經結束，對嗎？所以就有了這個組件。

On the rate paid side of things, we're just monitoring just how the competitiveness of the deposit rates will go. And quite frankly, we don't expect a lot of deposit growth in the next quarter, just simply because QT is still around and is still putting pressure on industry liquidity for us and for the market. And so that's the primary driver is just kind of the watch of that. And on top of that, we just don't know if the Fed will cut or not. I know the market has priced that in, but that's another factory and this sort of thing. So those would be the factors I would call out.

在支付利率方面，我們只是監控存款利率的競爭力如何。坦白說，我們預計下一季存款不會大幅成長，這只是因為 QT 仍然存在，並且仍然給我們和市場的行業流動性帶來壓力。所以這就是主要驅動力就是手錶。最重要的是，我們只是不知道聯準會是否會降息。我知道市場已經定價了，但那是另一家工廠和類似的事情。這些就是我要指出的因素。

And John, in our projections, we've assumed two more rate cuts through our September and December --

約翰，在我們的預測中，我們假設 9 月和 12 月還會再降息兩次——

That's right. We've assumed September and December for rate cuts. That's right.

這是正確的。我們假設 9 月和 12 月會降息。這是正確的。

Okay, got it. Great. Thank you.

好，知道了。偉大的。謝謝。

Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

Hi. I just think my math is wrong here, if you can help me out with that. Again, even assuming the four items you just mentioned for NII not going higher in the third quarter. If you could just highlight your fixed asset reprice a little bit more. Here's my math, and it's clearly wrong. Because one, you said securities should reprice up 6 to 8 basis points per quarter, if I heard that correctly. So if you take 7 basis points on $168 billion of securities, that would be like $100 million extra next quarter.

你好。我只是覺得我的數學錯了，如果你能幫我解決這個問題。同樣，即使假設您剛才提到的 NII 四個項目在第三季不會走高。如果您能強調一下您的固定資產重新定價的話。這是我的數學，它顯然是錯的。因為第一，如果我沒聽錯的話，你說證券應該每季重新定價 6 到 8 個基點。因此，如果對 1,680 億美元的證券採取 7 個基點，那麼下個季度就會增加 1 億美元。

You take your mortgage book of $117 billion, and you take 7 basis points on that. I wasn't sure if you've met some basis points on that. But then you get up to almost $200 million more for NII on a base of $4 billion, that would be 5% growth next quarter, 5% growth the quarter after that, et cetera, et cetera. And that's not your guidance. So first, if you could just fix my math as far as the fixed asset repricing on the securities and mortgages, what I'm doing wrong. And then confirm or not, those four items that you mentioned to offset all of that. Thank you.

你拿了 1170 億美元的抵押貸款，並在此基礎上加了 7 個基點。我不確定您是否滿足了一些基本要點。但是，在 40 億美元的基礎上，NII 會增加近 2 億美元，這將是下個季度增長 5%，下個季度增長 5%，等等。那不是你的指導。首先，如果你能修正我關於證券和抵押貸款的固定資產重新定價的數學問題，那麼我做錯了什麼。然後確認與否，你提到的這四項可以抵銷所有這些。謝謝。

Sure, Mike. Happy to. So I think in terms of the math in terms of mortgage, that's going to continue given that's a very much a fixed rate book. On the investment portfolio, given current rates, we would expect 6- to 8-basis point increase. However, if we assume in our projections as we just mentioned, that there will be a cut in September. And about half of our book is floating rate or swap to floating and that sort of thing. And so that will impact the investment portfolio that way.

當然，麥克。高興。因此，我認為就抵押貸款而言，鑑於這是一本固定利率的書，這種情況將繼續下去。在投資組合方面，考慮到目前的利率，我們預計會增加 6 至 8 個基點。然而，如果我們按照我們剛才提到的預測假設 9 月將會降息。我們書中大約有一半的內容是浮動利率或掉期浮動之類的事情。因此，這將以這種方式影響投資組合。

And the deposits, of course, on the other side of that will start to shift. Of course, the institutional side would start to move right away, but the retail side will have an arc to it. And so it's the movement of the cut within the quarter, which is sort of a part of why we anticipate a relatively stable third quarter.

當然，另一方面的存款也將開始改變。當然，機構方面會立即開始採取行動，但散戶方面將有一個弧線。因此，這是本季內削減的變動，這也是我們預期第三季相對穩定的部分原因。

And just for clarification, you did intend -- the mortgage books should reprice upward by 7 basis points a quarter also, same as the security?

澄清一下，您確實打算——抵押貸款帳簿也應每季重新定價 7 個基點，與證券一樣嗎？

Yeah, that's right. Mortgage book is kind of that 6- to 8- basis point range.

是啊，沒錯。抵押貸款書的利率範圍為 6 至 8 個基點。

And then one more follow-up and I'll requeue. Your noninterest-bearing deposits. You mentioned that as one of the risk factors you said it's slowing. Can you remind us what it did between the second and first quarter and what's your all-time low for that ratio?

然後再進行一次後續行動，我將重新排隊。您的無利息存款。您提到這是風險因素之一，您說它正在放緩。您能否提醒我們第二季和第一季之間的情況以及該比率的歷史最低點是多少？

On the mix of DDA to total deposits, I think, 16.2% or so is where we came in this quarter, it was 16.9% quarter ago. It was 18% or so the quarter before that. So that pace is changing and slowing. And in terms of where it goes, it's going to be just how clients behave and all that sort of thing, but it is an all-time low for us, for sure, as we look back at our data.

就 DDA 佔總存款的比例而言，我認為本季我們的佔比約為 16.2%，季前為 16.9%。上一季這一比例約為 18%。因此，這種步伐正在改變並放緩。就其走向而言，這將是客戶的行為方式以及諸如此類的事情，但當我們回顧我們的數據時，這對我們來說肯定是歷史最低點。

And Mike, there's -- on slide 7, there's a chart upper left that shows the migration out that has slowed. It was 7.1% in the fourth quarter, down 6.4% in the first quarter and then slowed to 1.6% down in the first -- in the second quarter of '24.

麥克，在第 7 張投影片上，左上角有一張圖表，顯示遷移速度已經放緩。第四季為 7.1%，第一季下降 6.4%，然後在 2024 年第二季放緩至 1.6%。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, Andy. Hi, John.

嗨，安迪。你好，約翰。

Good morning, Gerard.

早上好，傑拉德。

John, you talked about the deposits and how you will approach them as the Fed starts to cut rates, I thought it was interesting in your supplement on the average balance sheet that one of your largest -- your largest deposit category, if I'm seeing it correctly, money market savings. The yield was down from the prior quarter at 3.85% versus 3.92% in the March quarter. Can you share with us what kind of strategies you used or what took that down when many of the other rates like time deposits obviously went up in the quarter?

約翰，你談到了存款以及當美聯儲開始降息時你將如何處理它們，我認為你對平均資產負債表的補充很有趣，你最大的存款類別之一，如果我是的話正確地看，貨幣市場儲蓄。收益率較上一季下降至 3.85%，而 3 月季度為 3.92%。您能否與我們分享一下，當許多其他利率（例如定期存款）在本季明顯上升時，您使用了哪種策略，或者是什麼降低了策略？

Sure. Gerard, no problem. So if you look at that category, as you mentioned, our largest category for deposits. So it's a mix of wholesale as well as retail and small business and all that sort of thing. And I think what we have done is, in light of loan growth, obviously, it grew a little bit, but it's not -- again, it's not growing tremendously. And so we have the opportunity to look at our relationships across the bank and price things in appropriate manner that makes sense for us to do. And so we've taken some opportunities to exit some high-cost deposits.

當然。傑拉德，沒問題。因此，如果你看看這個類別，正如你所提到的，我們最大的存款類別。所以它是批發、零售和小型企業等等的混合體。我認為我們所做的是，鑑於貸款增長，顯然它增長了一點，但它並沒有——再說一遍，它並沒有大幅增長。因此，我們有機會審視我們與銀行之間的關係，並以對我們有意義的適當方式定價。因此，我們抓住了一些機會退出一些高成本存款。

And we've really utilized our distribution network, whether that's on the retail side, the branch network, our app capabilities, really taking advantage in our partnerships, really taking advantage of our national bank reach and really growing in deposits in areas that have a lower cost. And so that's kind of the positive rotation that you're seeing in that specific category.

我們真正利用了我們的分銷網絡，無論是零售方面、分支機構網絡還是我們的應用程序功能，真正利用了我們的合作夥伴關係，真正利用了我們國家銀行的影響力，並真正在擁有大量存款的地區增加了存款。這就是您在該特定類別中看到的正向旋轉。

I got it. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but when the Fed starts to cut rates from this line item at least, you guys could potentially benefit from lower rates and the balances continue to grow, which obviously would be beneficial. Andy, just a more bigger macro question. John touched it a little bit a moment ago about the utilization rate on the C&I loans.

我得到了它。我不想在你們嘴裡說些什麼，但是當聯準會至少開始從這一行項目降息時，你們可能會從較低的利率中受益，並且餘額繼續增長，這顯然是有益的。安迪，只是一個更大的宏觀問題。約翰剛才談到了工商業貸款的使用率。

Can you share with us when you guys go out and talk to clients, what do they think -- commercial clients that is, what are they thinking about CapEx spending, which would enable them to draw down lines. And then second, are you seeing any increased competition from alternative lenders, whether it's private credit or other that may be affecting the C&I loan growth?

當你們出去與客戶交談時，你們能否與我們分享他們的想法——即商業客戶，他們對資本支出有何看法，這將使他們能夠劃定界限。其次，您是否看到其他貸款機構的競爭加劇，無論是私人信貸還是其他可能影響工商業貸款成長的因素？

Yeah, Gerard. I think our clients are probably a little bit more focused on defense than offense right now. We just did a CEO survey, and we talked to clients. They are focused on productivity, efficiency, expense management and in the investments that they're making to the extent that they're utilizing lending activity is to really amplify some of that efficiency opportunity that they're focused on. So a little bit more on defense.

是的，傑拉德。我認為我們的客戶現在可能更專注於防守而不是進攻。我們剛剛做了一項執行長調查，並與客戶進行了交談。他們專注於生產力、效率、費用管理以及他們正在進行的投資，他們利用貸款活動來真正放大他們所關注的一些效率機會。所以防守要多一點。

But as John mentioned, utilization rates were up modestly in pockets across the board, and I would expect that to continue as we go forward. So nothing significantly different from what we saw in prior quarters. The competition is strong. So both bank and non-bank competition that's driving pricing a little bit. We're continuing to seek full relationships with appropriate returns, and that will drive the volumes as well.

但正如約翰所提到的，利用率在各方面都在小幅上升，我預計隨著我們的前進，這種情況將持續下去。因此，與我們在前幾個季度看到的情況沒有顯著不同。競爭很激烈。因此，銀行和非銀行的競爭都在一定程度上推動了定價。我們將繼續尋求具有適當回報的全面關係，這也將推動銷售。

And just as a quick follow-up on the competition. Are you guys seeing more aggressive underwriting for banks that want to grow that balance sheet? How are you seeing that from the underwriting standpoint?

就像對比賽的快速跟進一樣。你們是否認為那些想要擴大資產負債表的銀行會採取更積極的承保措施？從承保的角度來看，您如何看待這一點？

Yeah. I'm not sure that the underwriting is changing significantly as opposed to pricing, Gerard. That's how I focus on it.

是的。傑拉德，我不確定承保是否與定價相比發生了重大變化。這就是我專注的方式。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. I wanted to circle back on payments. A lot of good details kind of by segment, but I was wondering if you could update kind of your thoughts on the growth you expect for full year this year. And then just still -- it might be a little bit lower than what you were thinking before? And then just the medium-term outlook, if that's still the same.

早安.我想回到付款問題。按細分市場有很多很好的細節，但我想知道您是否可以更新您對今年全年成長預期的想法。然後仍然——它可能比你之前想像的要低一點？然後是中期前景（如果仍然相同的話）。

Yeah. I'll answer your second question first. The medium-term outlook has not changed in terms of growth rate trajectory for all the payment businesses. So we think of high single-digit growth in terms of the merchant and corporate payments system categories, and we think of mid-single-digit growth as we get into the credit card, debit card kind of area.

是的。我先回答你的第二個問題。就所有支付業務的成長軌跡而言，中期前景並沒有改變。因此，我們認為商家和企業支付系統類別會出現高個位數成長，而當我們進入信用卡、金融卡等領域時，我們會出現中等個位數成長。

As I mentioned, we've -- we had 4% or so and then 3% growth this quarter, in the last two quarters on a year-over-year basis, we would expect momentum as we move forward. And getting and approaching those sort of medium-term levels and some of the puts and takes I have mentioned earlier are going to be kind of the drivers of that. And of course, the -- whether or not we're on the higher end or the lower end is going to depend upon spend levels and where that ultimately comes through. But we feel confident in terms of where the market is going and how that is. So we feel like we're well positioned in that space.

正如我所提到的，我們本季的成長率為 4% 左右，然後是 3%，在過去的兩個季度中，我們預計隨著我們的前進，將會出現成長勢頭。達到並接近這些中期水平以及我之前提到的一些看跌期權將成為這一趨勢的驅動因素。當然，無論我們處於高端還是低端，都將取決於支出水平以及最終的結果。但我們對市場的走向和發展方式充滿信心。所以我們覺得我們在這個領域處於有利位置。

Okay. And then what's the prepaid card risk mitigation that you referred to? Maybe I missed if you've mentioned that in the past, but can you just remind us what that is? And how long it might [drive for] Thanks.

好的。那麼您提到的預付卡風險緩解是什麼呢？也許我錯過了你過去提到過的事情，但你能提醒我們那是什麼嗎？以及它可以[行駛]多長時間，謝謝。

Sure. Yeah. So it's just more fraud and things of that variety that has picked up. And so we just -- there's just some areas there that we want to mitigate against and so that we've chosen to just step away from some of those sorts of things.

當然。是的。因此，更多的詐欺行為和類似的事情正在增加。所以我們只是——我們想要減輕一些領域的影響，所以我們選擇遠離其中的一些事情。

And then how much of a drag is it? And how long will it continue? That's my last one. Thanks.

那麼它的阻力有多大呢？而這種情況會持續多久？這是我的最後一張。謝謝。

Well, I think it's -- I mean you saw the card growth rate was about 1% or so versus our sales area of about 4% -- 3% to 4%. So I think there's going to be some of that pressure in the third quarter or so.

嗯，我認為 - 我的意思是你看到卡片的成長率約為 1% 左右，而我們的銷售區域成長率約為 4% - 3% 到 4%。所以我認為第三季左右將會有一些壓力。

Okay.

好的。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

維韋克·朱尼賈 (Vivek Juneja)，摩根大通。

Hi. Thanks. A couple of just follow-ups. One on payments. So I try to understand, I know you said merchant you expect to get to high single digit, what's happening with the -- when I look at the volumes, merchant was only up 1.7% year on year, and that's the slowest volume growth we've seen in six quarters. So why has despite all the tech-led initiatives, which are great and the other areas that you're trying to extract, why is volume growth slowed so much? And then what would cause that to turn around?

你好。謝謝。幾個後續行動。一是關於付款。所以我試著理解，我知道你說商家希望達到高個位數，發生了什麼事——當我查看銷量時，商家同比僅增長了 1.7%，這是我們最慢的銷量增長已經看到了六個季度。那麼，為什麼儘管有所有以技術為主導的舉措，這些舉措都很棒，並且您正在嘗試提取其他領域，但為什麼銷量增長放緩如此之多？那麼什麼會導致這種情況逆轉呢？

Sure. So I can talk to that, Vivek. So on the merchant processing side, you mentioned that the sales component was about 2% or so. In terms of where we saw some volume decreases was really had to do with travel, particularly in the European side of things. Volumes were just lower for our clients in that particular area. So that's really the focal point. I think if you think about -- as we start to lap some of that sort of thing in same-store sales come in and that sort of thing, that's where we expect the momentum in the second half of the year.

當然。所以我可以談談這個，Vivek。那麼在商家加工方面，您提到銷售部分大約是2%左右。就我們看到的銷量下降而言，確實與旅行有關，特別是在歐洲方面。我們的客戶在該特定領域的交易量只是較低。這確實是焦點。我想如果你想一想，當我們開始在同店銷售中進行一些類似的事情時，這就是我們預計下半年的勢頭。

Okay. Shifting gears. You're talking about charge-offs going to 60 basis points in the second half. Delinquencies are down, so that should help. But your C&I losses are running high. Despite the losses, NPLs are running -- still up. Where -- first, a two-part question there. Where in C&I are you seeing these losses, which industry sectors and our overall charge-off rate of 60 basis points, which categories do you expect would tick that up from where you are currently, given the outlook for delinquencies coming down?

好的。換檔。你說的是下半年沖銷將達到 60 個基點。拖欠率下降了，這應該會有所幫助。但您的 C&I 損失正在增加。儘管出現了虧損，但不良貸款仍在增加。首先，有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。考慮到拖欠率下降的前景，您在 C&I 的哪些領域看到了這些損失？

Sure. So on your two-parter, I'll take the C&I question first. First of all, the increase there in charge-off was really attributed to one unique or idiosyncratic loan that went through, and that was an NPA that we saw a couple of quarters ago that worked its way through. We don't anticipate anything really in the C&I book outside of that. So that is something that is something that we're not concerned about.

當然。因此，對於兩人合作的問題，我將首先回答 C&I 問題。首先，沖銷的增加實際上歸因於一筆獨特或特殊的貸款，這就是我們在幾個季度前看到的一筆不良貸款。除此之外，我們對 C&I 書中沒有任何真正的預期。所以這是我們不關心的事情。

On the rest of the charge-offs, if I think about just at a big picture on credit card as an example, we did see a little bit of an increase in charge-offs this quarter. But given the delinquency, as you just mentioned, we would expect our charge-offs in the first -- or the third and fourth quarter to look more like the first quarter. And I think the balance of it will be more kind of in the commercial real estate office side of things. So that's kind of the puts and takes to the charge-off guide.

關於其餘的沖銷，如果我以信用卡為例，我們確實看到本季的沖銷增加。但考慮到拖欠情況，正如您剛才提到的，我們預計第一季或第三季和第四季的沖銷看起來更像第一季。我認為商業地產辦公方面的平衡將更加突出。這就是沖銷指南中的看跌期權和索取金額。

Okay. So you had one large loan written off, but then what refilled that bucket, John, given that the NPL has actually ticked up, not down in C&I?

好的。所以你註銷了一筆大筆貸款，但是約翰，鑑於不良貸款實際上在商業和工業方面有所增加，而不是下降，那麼什麼又可以補充這一桶呢？

Well, yeah, I mean, I think it's very -- it's just very modest. It's more idiosyncratic-type loans. It's not something that we're holistically concerned about at any reach.

嗯，是的，我的意思是，我認為這非常——非常謙虛。這是更特殊類型的貸款。這不是我們在任何方面都全面關心的事情。

Vivek, as you mentioned and as John mentioned, the delinquency levels are stable, and so that drives stabilization on credit card. The idiosyncratic loan that John mentioned, it was the second quarter. And as we think about the future, I think the lumpiness will come out of a CRE office, and that's the one that's going to go up and down a little bit. We've talked about that. We've mentioned that in prior calls. Certainly manageable, but that will just cause a little bit up and down.

Vivek，正如您所提到的和約翰所提到的，拖欠水平穩定，因此推動了信用卡的穩定。約翰提到的特殊貸款是第二季的。當我們思考未來時，我認為 CRE 辦公室將會出現混亂，而且會出現一點點的上下波動。我們已經討論過了。我們在之前的通話中已經提到過這一點。當然是可以控制的，但這只會導致一點點的上下波動。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

You got it.

你說對了。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Andy, I appreciate the color you gave on capital and as you look at it, I know it sounds like you're still on the sidelines on buybacks as you walk through your priorities and the expectation for capital here. But I guess, what changes that? Is it continued pull to par on the AOCI side? Is it Basil III clarity? Is it clarity on rates. What gets you to the point where you get confidence in buyback outlook or how you're thinking about your internal CET1 target. If you could just walk us through the thought process there.

安迪，我很欣賞你對資本的描述，當你看到它時，我知道當你回顧你的優先事項和對資本的期望時，聽起來你仍然對回購持觀望態度。但我想，是什麼改變了這一點？ AOCI 方面是否繼續拉動？是巴茲爾三世的淨度嗎？費率是否清晰。是什麼讓您對回購前景或如何看待內部 CET1 目標充滿信心。如果您能引導我們完成那裡的思考過程就好了。

Yeah. So let's start, John, by saying that I'm very confident in our capital levels and our ability to accrete capital. It's consistent with what we've talked about, that 20 to 25 basis points. And we've made great improvements, as you saw from the number, 140 basis points over the last year. So let me start there.

是的。約翰，首先我要說的是，我對我們的資本水準和累積資本的能力非常有信心。這與我們所說的20到25個基點是一致的。正如您從數字中看到的那樣，我們取得了巨大的進步，比去年提高了 140 個基點。讓我從這裡開始。

Second, as we talked about before, we are seeking clarity on two components. Number one is CCAR, which we now have. And number two is Basel III end game, which we're getting closer to. And my expectation, John, is that we will -- one way or the other, we'll have more clarity or if not, the perfect answer we will update on both our capital targets and distribution objectives as we think about it at Investor Day on September 12. So I'll give you a full update at that point.

其次，正如我們之前談到的，我們正在尋求澄清兩個組成部分。第一個是 CCAR，我們現在擁有它。第二是巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果，我們已經越來越接近了。約翰，我的期望是，無論怎樣，我們都會有更清晰的答案，如果沒有，我們將在投資者日考慮時更新我們的資本目標和分配目標9 月12 日。更新資訊。

Okay. Thanks. I appreciate that. And then separately, on operating leverage. I know you reiterated your confidence in achieving positive operating leverage in the second half of this year. I mean can you help us -- I know you're not giving formal 2025 expectations, but I'm trying to think about what that positive operating leverage you're generating in the back half of that expectation, what that could mean as we look into the quarters through 2025.

好的。謝謝。我很感激。然後分別討論營運槓桿。我知道您重申了對今年下半年實現正經營槓桿的信心。我的意思是你能幫助我們嗎——我知道你沒有給出正式的 2025 年預期，但我正在嘗試思考你在該預期的後半部分產生的積極運營槓桿是什麼，這可能意味著什麼展望2025 年之前的各個季度。

I mean it looks like [the intent] is ballparking around 300 basis points positive operating leverage when you look at full year '25 expectations. You were above 200 basis points in 2022, but in the years prior, you were well below that. What's a good way to think about it, medium-term in terms of where USB should be operating from that standpoint.

我的意思是，當你考慮 25 年全年的預期時，[意圖] 的正營運槓桿似乎約為 300 個基點。 2022 年，利率高於 200 個基點，但在先前的幾年裡，利率遠低於該水準。從這個角度來看，從中期來看 USB 應該在哪裡運行，這是一個很好的思考方式。

Let me do it in components. So first of all, as you saw this quarter, our expenses were relatively flat, and we focused on the 16.8% or lower for the full year '24. So we are past the point of investment in the curve on increasing expenses and now realizing the benefits from those expenses. So I would expect us to be moderate from an expense growth standpoint going forward and managing that well.

讓我用組件來做。首先，正如您在本季看到的那樣，我們的支出相對持平，我們專注於 24 年全年的 16.8% 或更低。因此，我們已經過了支出曲線上的投資點，現在正在實現這些支出的好處。因此，我希望我們從未來支出成長的角度來看會保持適度成長並管理得好。

We talked about the momentum and fee growth, and I would expect that to continue to give the unique businesses we have. I think the biggest difference is the headwind that was net interest income turned into a tailwind this quarter. And as we talked about stabilization in the third quarter, I think as we begin to '25, that becomes more of a tailwind. And those things all drive positive operating leverage into '25.

我們討論了勢頭和費用成長，我希望這將繼續為我們帶來獨特的業務。我認為最大的區別是本季度淨利息收入的逆風變成了順風。當我們談到第三季的穩定時，我認為當我們進入 25 世紀時，這將成為更多的順風車。這些因素都為 25 世紀帶來了積極的營運槓桿。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

You got it.

你說對了。

Chris Kotowski, Oppenheimer.

克里斯·科托夫斯基，奧本海默。

Yes, good morning. Hi. It's a small item, but a curiosity to me. I mean I noticed that your automobile loan portfolio is down by more than 30% year over year. And I'm just curious, how did that category suddenly become like no-fly zone because you think it's short duration assets. Do you think it would be attractive given the --

是的，早安。你好。雖然是一件小事，但對我來說卻是一種好奇。我的意思是，我注意到您的汽車貸款組合比去年同期下降了 30% 以上。我只是很好奇，這個類別是如何突然變得像禁飛區的，因為你認為它是短期資產。你認為它會有吸引力嗎——

Sure, Chris. So in terms of the drop, obviously, we haven't been as active in the auto loan market just simply because the spreads and the returns on those sorts of loans have not been at our standard. And the competitors that we're facing aren't banks, and they have a different return profile in this particular environment. That doesn't mean we've exited or anything like that.

當然，克里斯。因此，就下降而言，顯然，我們在汽車貸款市場上沒有那麼活躍，只是因為此類貸款的利差和回報沒有達到我們的標準。我們面臨的競爭對手不是銀行，他們在這種特定環境下有不同的回報狀況。這並不意味著我們已經退出或類似的情況。

In fact, we've been very strong in terms of some of the leasing and some of the other areas and we continue to monitor that market very closely. And if the spreads and returns are appropriate, we will be very active in that space just as we have been in the past.

事實上，我們在某些​​租賃和其他一些領域一直非常強大，我們將繼續密切關注該市場。如果利差和回報合適，我們將像過去一樣在該領域非常活躍。

Okay. All right. Thank you.

好的。好的。謝謝。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Hi. Good morning, guys. Just a follow-up on the cards growth, 1.4% year on year, credit of 4.3%. I guess, John, is that entirely due to the exiting or the reducing of exposure to prepaid? Or are you seeing any weakness in debit as well. That would be somewhat unusual, typically debit in an environment where there is an economic slowdown tends to outperform. So just any additional color there? And just wanted to reaffirm that, that -- this is sort of a transitory thing, and you should lap this and I suspect in the fourth quarter, is that -- did I get that right?

你好。早上好傢伙。剛跟進的卡片成長，年增1.4%，信貸成長4.3%。約翰，我想這完全是由於預付費業務的退出或減少造成的嗎？或者您是否也看到了借記方面的任何弱點。這有點不尋常，通常在經濟放緩的環境下，借記卡的表現往往會跑贏大盤。那麼還有什麼額外的顏色嗎？只是想重申一下，這只是暫時的事情，你應該在第四季完成這一點，我懷疑是這樣，我說對了嗎？

Yeah. I think to answer your question very simply, I mean, the difference between the fee growth and versus the sales is really all prepaid on that side of things. We see strong trends in terms of credit card spend and all the union penetration, all those things that I mentioned. Those are the things, and all the different partnerships that we have. Those are all still very good. It's just that it's all on the prepaid side.

是的。我想簡單地回答你的問題，我的意思是，費用成長與銷售額之間的差異實際上都是在這方面預付的。我們看到信用卡支出和所有工會滲透率的強勁趨勢，以及我提到的所有這些事情。這些就是我們擁有的東西以及所有不同的合作關係。這些都還是非常好的。只是這一切都在預付費方面。

Okay. Got it. And then just a follow-up on deposit dynamics. You've talked a few times about a slowing in the rotation and -- but if I look at period end non-interest-bearing, it did fall close to 5% sequentially, much different -- much worse than -- or much larger sequential decline than you look -- you see on average. Just anything there that you want to call out? What drove that? Is this -- and is it something that's somewhat transitory or not?

好的。知道了。然後是存款動態的後續行動。你已經多次談到輪換放緩，但如果我看看期末無息貸款，它確實連續下降了接近 5%，有很大不同，比更糟糕，或者更大連續下降比你看起來的平均下降要快。有什麼想喊出來的嗎？是什麼推動了這一點？這是否是某種暫時的現象？

I want to -- thanks for asking that question because I want to point something out. We have a lot of volatility in the day-to-day NIB deposit levels, principally due to our corporate trust business that has payments coming in and out on a daily basis and depending upon where the quarter ends, the holidays, the end of the week, the end of the month, you could have volatility. So we are very focused on the average balances, and I would encourage you to do the same because day-to-day, it could be very volatile, and it does not indicate any trends.

我想——感謝您提出這個問題，因為我想指出一些事情。我們的日常 NIB 存款水平存在很大波動，這主要是由於我們的企業信託業務每天都有付款進出，具體取決於季度結束時間、假日、期末等。因此，我們非常關注平均餘額，我鼓勵您也這樣做，因為每天它可能會非常波動，並且它不會顯示任何趨勢。

Got it. All right. Thanks very much.

知道了。好的。非常感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Hi. During the last quarter, there's been a few management changes, people leaving, people getting repositioned. And I think as we get ready for the September 12 Investor Day, we might look at presenters and say, wow, these are a lot different than the presenters at your last Investor Day. So I'm just trying to figure out what the tea leaves are saying and maybe you can just tell us directly, Andy.

你好。在上個季度，管理層發生了一些變化，人員離職，人員重新定位。我認為，當我們為 9 月 12 日投資者日做準備時，我們可能會看著演講者說，哇，這些演講者與上次投資者日的演講者有很大不同。所以我只是想弄清楚茶葉在說什麼，也許你可以直接告訴我們，安迪。

And in terms of what is your time horizon for remaining CEO? And I only ask that given some of these recent changes. So -- and who are the contenders to be the next CEO of US Bancorp. And would you consider looking outside US Bancorp for your successor? Just a little more color on all these moves that have taken place. Thanks.

您留任執行長的時間範圍是多少？我只是考慮到最近的一些變化才提出這個要求。那麼，誰是美國合眾銀行下一任執行長的競爭者。只是為所有這些已經發生的舉動增添一點色彩。謝謝。

Thanks, Mike. So as it relates to Investor Day, you're going to see some new faces for sure, but you're going to see some familiar faces as well. So we'll have a good mix of both people that you're very familiar with this service and some new. One of the things that we made a change with was putting Gunjan in the President's role.

謝謝，麥克。因此，就投資者日而言，您肯定會看到一些新面孔，但也會看到一些熟悉的面孔。因此，我們將由您非常熟悉這項服務的人員和一些新人員組成。我們做出的改變之一就是讓 Gunjan 擔任主席。

And about 1.5 years ago, we combined what was then called WSIB, which is the -- or we combine to the Institutional Wealth Group together with the Corporate and Commercial Group, and the synergies and the activity and the customer focus that evolved from that was just terrific.

大約 1.5 年前，我們將當時的 WSIB 合併，即機構財富集團與企業和商業集團合併，由此產生的協同效應、活動和以客戶為中心的理念是太棒了。

So Gunjan has that same objective to do that with the entire bank, with the payments organization, with the consumer and business banking organization, and pulling together the leadership under one -- the businesses under one leader with the customer in the center and really taking advantage of all the diverse set of businesses that we have to really grow the business. That's the objective. And she's done a terrific job with that already. She's already started very fast to do it with the entire bank, and I'm looking forward to sharing that story on September 12.

因此，Gunjan 也有同樣的目標，即與整個銀行、支付組織、消費者和商業銀行組織一起實現這一目標，並將領導層集中在一個領導者的領導下——所有業務都在一個領導者的領導下，以客戶為中心，並真正採取行動。這就是目標。她在這方面已經做得非常出色了。她已經開始快速與整個銀行合作，我期待在 9 月 12 日分享這個故事。

Okay. And the departures.? Anything related to that? Is that --

好的。和出發。有什麼與此相關的嗎？就是它 -

Yeah, Mike, I would just say that's natural activity. We've had a very stable senior leadership group for years and years, and sometimes change happens, but there's no messaging in that.

是的，麥克，我只想說這是自然活動。多年來，我們擁有一個非常穩定的高階領導團隊，有時會發生變化，但其中沒有任何資訊。

Okay. And so the theme, not to front run your conference too much is, it's one USB. So you've done more one USB with Wealth and Commercial, and now you're looking to be one USB, deliver the whole firm to the client, that sort of simple statement that's easy to say, tough to execute.

好的。因此，主題是，不要過度預先運行您的會議，它是一個 USB。所以你已經在財富和商業方面做了更多的一個USB，現在你希望成為一個USB，將整個公司交付給客戶，這種簡單的說法說起來容易，執行起來卻很難。

Exactly.

確切地。

Okay. All right. Thank you.

好的。好的。謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

肯‧烏斯丁，傑弗里斯。

Hey, thanks, guys. I just had a follow-up on the securities book. Just can you help us understand the meaningful increase that happened this quarter in the yields and then also, you mentioned 50% of the bond book is floating. Is that the total bond book? And then can you help us understand how much of that book is swapped and what you do with that going forward given the rate outlook. Thanks.

嘿，謝謝，夥計們。我剛剛對證券書籍進行了跟進。您能否幫助我們了解本季殖利率發生的有意義的成長，然後您也提到債券帳簿的 50% 是浮動的。這是債券總額嗎？然後您能否幫助我們了解該書的內容被交換了多少，以及考慮到利率前景，您將如何處理該書。謝謝。

Sure. So on the securities book, in terms of the quarter, the 19-basis point increase, a majority of that was related to opportunistically taking some of the excess liquidity that we had and putting it in into the securities book. And so you can think of that as short-dated treasuries or treasury swap to floating that sort of thing, which is the equivalent from a net interest or an interest rate risk perspective versus cash is just a kind of a simple way to think about it.

當然。因此，在證券帳簿上，就本季度而言，成長了 19 個基點，其中大部分與機會性地將我們擁有的一些過剩流動性放入證券帳簿有關。因此，您可以將其視為短期國債或浮動國債互換之類的東西，這相當於從淨利息或利率風險角度與現金相比，這只是一種簡單的思考方式。

In terms of the book itself, I would say that I made that comment because about -- in terms of AFS risk and all that sort of thing, we have hedged approximately 40% or so of the risk component. And then that, coupled with just natural floating rate securities that we have within the book. that are already floating. That gets you to about 50% that are either floating or synthetically floating through swaps. So that's kind of the details of it.

就這本書本身而言，我想說我做出這樣的評論是因為——就 AFS 風險和所有類似的事情而言，我們對沖了大約 40% 左右的風險成分。然後，再加上我們書中的自然浮動利率證券。那些已經漂浮的。這樣一來，大約 50% 的資產要么是浮動的，要么是透過掉期綜合浮動的。這就是它的細節。

Now on the other side of that, we have put on hedges to put received fixed swaps on our corporate book, so that if rates do fall, we're protected on that end as well. So those are kind of the balances all in, it gets us to where we want to be from an interest rate risk standpoint, which is neutral to shocks, which is where we are today.

另一方面，我們已經進行了對沖，將收到的固定掉期掉期計入我們的公司帳簿，這樣，如果利率確實下降，我們也能在這方面受到保護。因此，這些都是總的平衡，它讓我們從利率風險的角度達到我們想要的目標，對衝擊是中性的，這就是我們今天的處境。

Okay. So just -- so are you saying that that's -- it gets you to around half of the total book AFS and HTM?

好的。那麼，您的意思是，它能讓您讀到 AFS 和 HTM 書籍總數的一半左右？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Okay. Cool. And sorry, just one last one. Under $16.8 billion for cost after the second quarter result. Can you just remind us what that means for the trajectory from here? And thanks again for the follow-ups.

好的。涼爽的。抱歉，只有最後一件事。第二季業績公佈後，成本低於 168 億美元。您能提醒我們這對於從這裡開始的軌跡意味著什麼嗎？並再次感謝您的跟進。

Yeah, $16.8 billion or less. That's our fee -- our expense outlook. Where we have been over the last couple of quarters is very consistent with where we're at. As Andy talked about, we've hit that point on the investment curve. We continue to feel like we're in a very good spot in terms of managing expense going forward.

是的，168 億美元或更少。這就是我們的費用——我們的費用前景。過去幾季我們的情況與我們目前的情況非常一致。正如安迪所說，我們已經達到了投資曲線上的那個點。我們仍然感覺我們在未來的費用管理方面處於非常有利的位置。

And we have no further questions in our queue at this time. Mr. Andersen, I turn the call back over to you.

目前我們的隊列中沒有其他問題。安徒生先生，我將電話轉回給您。

Thanks, Krista. Thanks to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Krista, you can now disconnect the call.

謝謝，克里斯塔。感謝今天早上加入我們通話的所有人。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。克里斯塔，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。