美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 AM Central Time.

（操作員說明）將從今天中部時間上午 11:00 左右開始對該通話進行錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference over to George Anderson, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for US Bancorp.

我現在將會議交給合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Anderson)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Audra, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，奧德拉，大家早安。

Today, I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO, Andy Cecere; President, Gunjan Kedia; Vice Chair and CAO, Terry Dolan; and Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, John Stern.

今天，我們的董事長兼執行長 Andy Cecere 也加入了我的行列。主席 Gunjan Kedia；副主席兼首席行政官 Terry Dolan；資深執行副總裁兼財務長約翰‧斯特恩 (John Stern)。

In a moment, Andy and John will be referencing a slide presentation together with their prepared remarks.

稍後，安迪和約翰將參考幻燈片簡報以及他們準備好的演講。

A copy of the presentation, our press release, and all supplemental consolidated schedules can be found on our website at ir.usbank.com. Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainty.

您可以在我們的網站 ir.usbank.com 上找到簡報的副本、我們的新聞稿以及所有補充綜合時間表。請注意，今天電話會議期間所做的任何前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。

Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page 2 of today's earnings release, press presentation, our press release, and our reports on file with the SEC.

今天的財報、新聞發布會、我們的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的報告的第 2 頁描述了可能對我們當前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。

Following our prepared remarks this morning, we will be happy to take any questions that you have.

在我們今天早上準備好的演講之後，我們將很樂意回答您提出的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George.

謝謝，喬治。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。

I'll begin on Slide 3.

我將從幻燈片 3 開始。

In the fourth quarter, we reported $1.01 per diluted share, or $1.07 after adjusting for notable items.

第四季度，我們公佈的稀釋後每股收益為 1.01 美元，在對重要項目進行調整後為 1.07 美元。

John will discuss these onetime charges in his prepared remarks.

約翰將在他準備好的演講中討論這些一次性指控。

Net revenue totaled $7 billion for the quarter and $27.5 billion for the year, as we saw both sequential and year-over-year quarterly growth in net interest income and non-interest income, driven by effective balance sheet management, earning asset repricing and mix, and our highly diversified fee business offerings.

本季淨收入總額為 70 億美元，全年淨收入為 275 億美元，在有效的資產負債表管理、盈利資產重新定價和組合的推動下，淨利息收入和非利息收入季度環比和同比均增長，以及我們高度多元化的收費業務產品。

Overall, the quarter was highlighted by top line revenue growth and continued expense discipline, which resulted in 190 basis points of positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis year-over-year.

總體而言，本季的亮點是營收成長和持續的支出紀律，調整後的營運槓桿率比去年同期提高了 190 個基點。

Turning to Slide 4.

轉到投影片 4。

We had slight balance sheet growth this quarter with average earning assets increasing 1.2%, driven by higher on balance sheet liquidity.

在資產負債表流動性增加的推動下，本季我們的資產負債表略有成長，平均獲利資產成長 1.2%。

This quarter, we had modest loan loss reserve release largely reflective of improved credit quality and a more favorable portfolio mix.

本季度，我們適度釋放了貸款損失準備金，這主要反映了信貸品質的改善和更有利的投資組合。

On the bottom right of the slide, you can see that our CET1 capital ratio increased 10 basis points from the prior quarter to 10.6%.

在投影片的右下角，您可以看到我們的 CET1 資本比率比上一季增加了 10 個基點，達到 10.6%。

Our tangible book value per share totaled $24.63 at December 31, an increase of 10.4% compared to the end of last year.

截至12月31日，我們每股有形帳面價值總計24.63美元，比去年年底成長10.4%。

During the quarter, we effectively balanced continued capital accretion with an initial $100 million of share repurchases.

在本季度，我們有效地平衡了持續的資本增值和最初 1 億美元的股票回購。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics.

投影片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。

On an adjusted basis, we delivered an 18.3% return on tangible common equity and an improved efficiency ratio of 59.9% in the fourth quarter.

經調整後，我們第四季的有形普通股報酬率為 18.3%，效率提高至 59.9%。

Turning to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

Fee income represented over 40% of total net revenue in the fourth quarter.

第四季手續費收入佔淨收入總額的 40%以上。

Results this quarter were driven by double-digit year-over-year fee growth in Commercial Products, Trust and Investment Management, and Investment Product revenues.

本季業績受到商業產品、信託和投資管理以及投資產品收入兩位數年比費用成長的推動。

Slide 7 highlights a few of our key selected initiatives on interconnectedness across the franchise.

投影片 7 重點介紹了我們在整個特許經營範圍內互聯互通方面所選擇的一些關鍵舉措。

Let me now turn over the call to John, who will provide more detail on the quarter as well as forward-looking guidance.

現在讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊以及前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

If you turn to slide 8, I'll start with a more detailed earnings summary, followed by a discussion of fourth quarter earnings trends.

如果您翻到投影片 8，我將從更詳細的收益摘要開始，然後討論第四季的收益趨勢。

In the fourth quarter, we reported earnings per diluted common share of $1.01, which included $109 million of notable expense items or $82 million net of tax.

第四季度，我們公佈的每股稀釋普通股收益為 1.01 美元，其中包括 1.09 億美元的顯著費用項目或 8,200 萬美元的稅後淨額。

Notable items for the quarter included $60 million related to operational efficiency initiatives and $49 million from lease impairments associated with strategic real estate restructuring actions.

本季值得注意的項目包括與營運效率措施相關的 6,000 萬美元，以及與策略性房地產重組行動相關的租賃減損 4,900 萬美元。

After adjusting for these notable items, we delivered diluted earnings per common share of $1.07 this quarter.

在對這些值得注意的項目進行調整後，我們本季的稀釋後每股普通股收益為 1.07 美元。

Slide 9 provides a balance sheet summary.

投影片 9 提供了資產負債表摘要。

Total average deposits increased 0.7% on a linked quarter basis, to $512 billion as we continue to prioritize relationship-based deposits and maintained our pricing discipline.

由於我們繼續優先考慮基於關係的存款並維持我們的定價紀律，平均存款總額環比增長 0.7%，達到 5,120 億美元。

While total noninterest-bearing deposits increased slightly this quarter, this was largely driven by institutional deposit seasonality at the end of the quarter.

儘管本季無息存款總額略有增加，但這主要是由季末機構存款季節性推動的。

Importantly, after accounting for this seasonality, our percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits now looks to have stabilized in line with our earlier expectations.

重要的是，考慮到這種季節性因素後，我們的無利息存款佔總存款的百分比現在看起來已經穩定下來，符合我們先前的預期。

Average loans totaled $376 billion, a modest increase of 0.4% on a linked-quarter basis, driven by commercial lending initiatives, slower paydowns, and new originations in residential mortgages, as well as higher seasonal credit card spend.

受商業貸款措施、還款放緩、住宅抵押貸款新發放以及季節性信用卡支出增加的推動，平均貸款總額為 3,760 億美元，環比小幅增長 0.4%。

At December 31, the ending balance on our investment portfolio increased slightly to $171 billion from opportunistic repurchases of securities.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的投資組合期末餘額因證券機會性回購而小幅增加至 1,710 億美元。

This quarter, we saw a slight decline in the average yield across both our investment portfolio and loan book as the impact of variable rates more than offset the benefits of fixed asset repricing.

本季度，我們的投資組合和貸款帳簿的平均收益率均略有下降，因為可變利率的影響遠遠抵消了固定資產重新定價的好處。

Turning to slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $4.18 billion, which was stable to the third quarter.

以完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入總計 41.8 億美元，第三季保持穩定。

For the year, total net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis was slightly better than our earlier guidance of $16.4 billion.

今年，以完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入總額略優於我們先前的指導值 164 億美元。

Slide 11 highlights trends in noninterest income.

幻燈片 11 突顯了非利息收入的趨勢。

Linked quarter, we saw noninterest income growth in the Trust and Investment management and other revenue that was partially offset by lower mortgage banking and seasonally lower payments revenue.

與季度相關，我們看到信託和投資管理以及其他收入的非利息收入成長，但部分被抵押貸款銀行業務減少和支付收入季節性下降所抵消。

Importantly, excluding security losses, full year noninterest income increased 3.9% compared to 2023, consistent with our 2024 guidance as we benefited from continued growth across our diversified and differentiated business mix.

重要的是，排除擔保損失，全年非利息收入較 2023 年增長 3.9%，與我們的 2024 年指引一致，因為我們受益於多元化和差異化業務組合的持續成長。

Turning to slide 12.

轉到投影片 12。

Noninterest expense for the quarter totaled $4.2 billion as adjusted.

經調整後，本季非利息支出總計 42 億美元。

For the year, total noninterest expense was $16.79 billion as adjusted, which was just below or better than our full year guidance of $16.8 billion.

今年調整後的非利息支出總額為 167.9 億美元，略低於或好於我們 168 億美元的全年指引。

We remain focused on prudent expense management and continued to benefit from operational efficiencies across the company.

我們仍然專注於審慎的費用管理，並繼續受益於整個公司的營運效率。

Slide 13 highlights our credit quality performance.

投影片 13 重點介紹了我們的信用品質表現。

Asset quality metrics this quarter were in line with expectations and reflected ongoing macroeconomic stability.

本季資產品質指標符合預期，反映了宏觀經濟的持續穩定。

Our ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.48% at December 31, compared with 0.49% at September 30, and 0.40% a year ago.

截至12月31日，我們的不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為0.48%，而9月30日為0.49%，一年前為0.40%。

The fourth quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.60% was flat to the third quarter as expected, and our allowance for credit losses totaled $7.9 billion, or 2.09% of period-end loans at December 31.

第四季淨沖銷率為 0.60%，與第三季持平，符合預期，信貸損失撥備總額為 79 億美元，佔截至 12 月 31 日期末貸款的 2.09%。

Turning to slide 14.

轉到投影片 14。

Our CET1 capital ratio of 10.6% as of December 31, increased 10 basis points net of distributions which included an initial $100 million of share buybacks this quarter.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的 CET1 資本比率為 10.6%，扣除分配後增加了 10 個基點，其中包括本季最初 1 億美元的股票回購。

Moving forward, we expect the level and pace of buybacks to remain modest in the near term as we balance continued capital accretion with distributions.

展望未來，我們預計，隨著我們在持續的資本增值與分配之間取得平衡，回購的水平和步伐在短期內將保持溫和。

I will now provide first quarter and full year 2025 forward-looking guidance on slide 15.

我現在將在投影片 15 上提供 2025 年第一季和全年的前瞻性指引。

Starting with the first quarter 2025 guidance.

從 2025 年第一季指導開始。

Net interest income is expected to be relatively stable to the fourth quarter of 2024, excluding the impact of fewer days.

預計到2024年第四季淨利息收入將相對穩定，排除天數減少的影響。

As a reminder, the first quarter has two fewer days than the fourth quarter.

提醒一下，第一季比第四季少兩天。

Total noninterest expense is expected to be relatively stable to the fourth quarter level of approximately $4.2 billion as adjusted.

預計第四季非利息支出總額將相對穩定，調整後約 42 億美元。

We expect to deliver positive operating leverage in the first quarter of 200 basis points or more on a year-over-year basis.

我們預計第一季的營運槓桿率將比去年同期提高 200 個基點或更多。

I'll now provide full year 2025 guidance.

我現在將提供 2025 年全年指導。

Total revenue growth on an adjusted basis is estimated to be in the range of 3% to 5% compared to the full year 2024.

與 2024 年全年相比，調整後的總收入成長預計在 3% 至 5% 之間。

We expect to achieve positive operating leverage, excluding the impact of security gains or losses of greater than 200 basis points for the full year.

我們預計全年將實現正經營槓桿，排除超過 200 個基點的證券收益或損失的影響。

I'll now hand it back over to Andy for closing remarks.

現在我將把它交還給安迪做總結發言。

Thanks, John. 2024 was a pivotal year for the company in many ways and marked a very important inflection point in our story.

謝謝，約翰。 2024 年對公司來說在許多方面都是關鍵的一年，也是我們故事中非常重要的轉捩點。

Going into the year, there was much uncertainty with respect to the broader macroeconomic environment, persistent inflation, significant rate volatility, political and regulatory headwinds to name a few.

進入今年，更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境、持續的通膨、顯著的利率波動、政治和監管阻力等都存在很大的不確定性。

But we effectively managed through the changes and most importantly, executed on our strategic objectives.

但我們有效地應對了這些變化，最重要的是，我們執行了我們的策略目標。

Fourth quarter results showcase our commitment to execution, which was highlighted by our delivery of 190 basis points of positive operating leverage.

第四季業績展示了我們對執行的承諾，我們實現了 190 個基點的正營運槓桿，凸顯了這一點。

As credit quality continue to stabilize and we prudently manage our capital position, it was effective balance sheet management, our financial discipline, and expanding interconnectedness across the franchise that enable us to fully deliver the strong results we did this quarter, and fully expect that momentum to continue into 2025.

隨著信貸品質繼續穩定，我們審慎管理我們的資本頭寸，有效的資產負債表管理、我們的財務紀律以及整個特許經營範圍內不斷擴大的互聯性使我們能夠充分實現本季度的強勁業績，並充分期待這股勢頭持續到2025年。

Finally, I'd like to extend our thoughts to those impacted by the devastating and ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles.

最後，我想向那些受到洛杉磯持續發生的毀滅性野火影響的人們表達我們的想法。

We are closely monitoring the situation and have teams across the bank involved in our collective response efforts to help best support our employees, customers, and their communities.

我們正在密切關注局勢，並讓整個銀行的團隊參與我們的集體應對工作，以幫助最好地支持我們的員工、客戶及其社區。

Let me close by thanking our employees for their continued dedication to our clients, communities, and shareholders, and what was a meaningful year for the company.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工對客戶、社區和股東的持續奉獻，感謝他們對公司來說是有意義的一年。

We will now open up the call for Q&A.

我們現在將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning guys.

早安各位。

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

Hey, John, I was hoping maybe you could delve in a little more to discuss the drivers of the 3% to 5% expected full year '25 revenue growth.

嘿，約翰，我希望您能更深入地討論 25 年全年預計收入增長 3% 至 5% 的驅動因素。

In other words, sort of how much comes from NII, how much ends up coming from fees?

換句話說，有多少來自 NII，有多少最終來自費用？

And maybe -- and then I guess a little clarification.

也許——然後我想需要一些澄清。

When you're talking about the 1Q NII guide, I think you're saying flat excluding the day count difference.

當您談論第一季 NII 指南時，我認為您說的是不包括天數差異的持平。

So I just want to be certain, we're thinking it would be down on a reported basis, marginally just due to

所以我只是想確定一下，我們認為在報告的基礎上它會有所下降，這只是由於

[a fewer days].

[較少的天數]。

Right.

正確的。

Thanks, Scott.

謝謝，斯科特。

So let me take your last question first.

那麼讓我先回答你的最後一個問題。

Yes, excluding days, about $40 million would be lower on a reported basis.

是的，如果排除天數，據報道，大約會減少 4,000 萬美元。

So stable excluding those two days of that $40 million.

除去這兩天的 4000 萬美元，非常穩定。

That's kind of -- that's how we're representing that.

這就是我們所表達的方式。

On the drivers on the 3% to 5% revenue growth, let me start with the fees and then I'll go over into net interest income.

關於 3% 至 5% 收入成長的驅動因素，讓我從費用開始，然後我將討論淨利息收入。

We had really solid and healthy growth on the fee side of things.

我們在費用方面取得了非常穩健和健康的成長。

And we have a lot of momentum building, and that's despite some headwinds that we saw, particularly on our prepaid, on the card side of things as well as freight.

儘管我們看到了一些阻力，特別是在預付費、卡片方面以及貨運方面，但我們仍然有很大的動力。

So some areas in the payment space that saw some headwinds.

因此，支付領域的某些領域遇到了一些阻力。

We also saw headwinds with the ATM exit of our cash servicing business.

我們也看到 ATM 機退出現金服務業務帶來的阻力。

So those things will abate or have abated here in 2024.

因此，到 2024 年，這些事情將會減弱或已經減弱。

And so we see obviously momentum in the core.

因此，我們明顯看到了核心的動力。

At Investor Day, we talked about our expectation for the medium term for our rate -- our expectations for 2026 and 2027 to be at mid-single digits for fee growth.

在投資者日，我們討論了對中期費率的預期——我們對 2026 年和 2027 年費用增長的預期為中個位數。

And that's a reasonable range for us to really think about as we think about 2025 and it really comes down to core areas of growth within our trust area, we're seeing strong market share, fund formation.

當我們考慮 2025 年時，這是一個值得我們真正考慮的合理範圍，它確實歸結為我們信託領域內成長的核心領域，我們看到了強勁的市場份額和基金形成。

The macro is really strong there.

那裡的宏觀確實很強大。

Payments.

付款。

We have good momentum in a number of areas, strategic initiatives that are underway.

我們在許多領域都取得了良好的勢頭，戰略舉措也正在進行中。

Treasury management and capital markets continue to have strong growth in certain areas.

資金管理和資本市場在某些領域持續強勁成長。

A couple of areas that we're watching is mortgage.

我們正在關注的幾個領域是抵押貸款。

Mortgages with these higher rates, it's hard to see volumes really persist or be a lot stronger than it was in the prior year and gain on sale is pretty stable as well.

利率較高的抵押貸款，很難看到交易量真正持續存在或比前一年強得多，而且銷售收益也相當穩定。

And then our other revenue will continue to be in that $125 million to $150 million range on an average basis per quarter.

然後我們的其他收入將繼續保持在平均每季 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元的範圍內。

So put it another way, we expect fees to grow.

換句話說，我們預期費用會增加。

We have strong momentum, and we think that is that mid-single digit is a reasonable place for us to begin.

我們有強勁的勢頭，我們認為中個位數是我們開始的合理位置。

As we think about net interest income, again, well positioned.

當我們考慮淨利息收入時，再次處於有利位置。

The balance sheet is in a great spot.

資產負債表處於一個很好的位置。

We saw inflection in our -- throughout 2024.

整個 2024 年我們都看到了改變。

And we really think about three key drivers for net interest income.

我們確實考慮了淨利息收入的三個關鍵驅動因素。

It's going to come from better asset mix, which we've seen more of a shift into higher returning assets.

它將來自更好的資產組合，我們看到更多的是轉向更高回報的資產。

That shift will continue.

這種轉變將持續下去。

We've seen deposit normalization.

我們已經看到存款正常化。

That's the noninterest-bearing rotation is starting to slow down and really stabilize at this level.

也就是說，無息輪動開始放緩，並真正穩定在這個水平。

And then importantly, fixed asset repricing on our back book is going to be a meaningful driver this year is particularly with the curve steepening.

然後重要的是，我們的帳簿上的固定資產重新定價將成為今年的一個有意義的驅動因素，尤其是在曲線變陡的情況下。

We've seen -- since we were last on this call, the curve -- I always look at SOFR versus a five-year treasury, that was meaningfully inverted back in September and now we're positive actually.

我們已經看到——自從我們上次參加這次電話會議以來，曲線——我總是關注SOFR 與五年期國債的對比，這在9 月份就發生了有意義的倒轉，現在我們實際上是積極的。

And so we think the back book is going to give us some nice trajectory.

所以我們認為後面的書會給我們一些很好的軌跡。

Just as an example, we have about $3 billion of an investment portfolio that reprices per quarter, $3 billion that runs off, that can get replaced at 150 to 200 basis points of spread.

舉個例子，我們有大約 30 億美元的投資組合每季重新定價，其中 30 億美元流失，可以以 150 到 200 個基點的利差進行替換。

And then on the other fixed rate assets that we have, which includes residential mortgage, commercial loans, and auto loans and things like that, we have $5 billion to $7 billion on average that reprice again at that 150 to 200 basis points mark.

然後，我們擁有的其他固定利率資產，包括住宅抵押貸款、商業貸款和汽車貸款等，我們平均有 50 億至 70 億美元的資產，這些資產會以 150 至 200 個基點的價格再次重新定價。

And that's assuming kind of today's rates.

這是假設今天的利率。

So either way, we're very confident in our growth, both on fees and net interest income.

因此，無論哪種方式，我們對費用和淨利息收入的成長都非常有信心。

And you put it all together, and that's really where we come up with our 3% to 5% total revenue growth.

把所有這些加在一起，我們就能得出 3% 到 5% 的總收入成長。

Perfect.

完美的。

All good.

一切都好。

I appreciate all the details now.

我現在很欣賞所有的細節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

John McDonald, Truist Securities

約翰·麥克唐納 (John McDonald)，Truist 證券公司

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Hey guys, I wanted to ask two strategic questions.

大家好，我想問兩個戰略問題。

Maybe the first one is for Gunjan.

也許第一個是給 Gunjan 的。

Just on payments, you reorganized the business yesterday or this week, you announced a new head to the consumer side.

就支付而言，您昨天或本週重組了業務，並宣布了消費者方面的新負責人。

Maybe just kind of give us the plan for payments and what you hope the new organization and setup will do for the growth and opportunities there?

也許只是給我們付款計劃以及您希望新的組織和設置將為那裡的增長和機會做些什麼？

Good morning, John.

早安，約翰。

Let me just remind you of some of the facts that we shared last time.

讓我提醒您我們上次分享的一些事實。

Payment’s franchise is a very strategic asset for us.

支付特許經營權對我們來說是一項非常具有策略意義的資產。

And our sense is that we can do more to interconnect that product set with our consumer franchise and our institutional franchise.

我們的感覺是，我們可以採取更多措施將該產品集與我們的消費者特許經營權和我們的機構特許經營權聯繫起來。

So the structure and splitting it into the two pieces that are more aligned with the two parts of the franchise is an expectation to accelerate execution.

因此，結構並將其分成與特許經營的兩個部分更一致的兩個部分是加速執行的期望。

So it's not really a strategic focus.

所以這不是真正的戰略重點。

We are very pleased to welcome two very high-quality leaders.

我們非常高興地歡迎兩位非常高素質的領導人。

Mark Runkel, we announced earlier in the year.

馬克·朗克爾（Mark Runkel），我們在今年早些時候宣布了這一消息。

He stepped into his role on the institutional side and Courtney Kelso joins us from AmEx next month.

他接任機構方面的職務，考特尼·凱爾索 (Courtney Kelso) 將於下個月從美國運通 (AmEx) 加入我們。

So that was sort of the intention and the goal is to truly accelerate our execution around our vision for interconnectedness.

這就是我們的意圖和目標是真正加速我們圍繞互聯願景的執行。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks Gunjan.

謝謝岡詹。

Andy, maybe broader, just kind of where have you planted seeds for offense across the company.

安迪，也許更廣泛一些，就是你在整個公司埋下了進攻的種子。

I think in the retail bank, you're looking in the Union franchise and maybe through your partners, Edward Jones and State Farm.

我認為在零售銀行，你正在尋找聯合特許經營權，也許還透過你的合作夥伴愛德華瓊斯和州立農場。

But maybe just across the footprint, where are you excited about where US Bank has kind of invested for growth and you might be moving to the front foot?

但也許就在整個足跡中，您對美國銀行為成長的投資感到興奮，並且您可能會邁向領先地位？

Thanks John and good morning.

謝謝約翰，早安。

I think it's across all of our business lines.

我認為這貫穿我們所有的業務線。

And it's that concept that we talked about in an Investor Day, which is about interconnectedness.

這就是我們在投資者日討論的概念，即互聯性。

But if you think about the momentum that John articulated and Gunjan talked about, our payments business, our Trust and Investment management business, our Commercial Products business, our retail business, the growth in deposit activity, our commercial business with the growth in targeted loan activity, profitable loans.

但如果你考慮一下John 闡述的和Gunjan 談到的勢頭，我們的支付業務、我們的信託和投資管理業務、我們的商業產品業務、我們的零售業務、存款活動的增長、我們的商業業務以及目標貸款的成長活動，有利可圖的貸款。

So we really have a lot of momentum going in that, John, coupled that with sort of the headwind that was the yield curve that John talked about, I think, drives the positive momentum on net interest income.

因此，約翰，我們確實有很大的動力，加上約翰談到的殖利率曲線的逆風，我認為推動了淨利息收入的積極勢頭。

The fee categories we talked about, which I all think have positive momentum.

我們談到的費用類別，我都認為具有正面的動力。

And all of that is coupled with relatively flat expense for the last five quarters, which drives this positive operating leverage that we talked about.

所有這些都加上過去五個季度相對平穩的支出，這推動了我們談到的積極的營運槓桿。

So across all the categories of revenue, it's positive, expenses well managed, and that's going to deliver the positive operating leverage.

因此，在所有類別的收入中，都是積極的，費用管理得當，這將帶來積極的營運槓桿。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley

貝特西·格拉塞克，摩根士丹利

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Hi, Betsy.

嗨，貝特西。

I noticed that it might in sound very ticky-tacky, but I just want to make sure I understand, what forward curve your NII guide is based on?

我注意到這聽起來可能很俗氣，但我只是想確保我理解，你的 NII 指南是基於什麼前向曲線？

And I think you mentioned today, but -- and the reason I ask is, as we all know, the forward curve has changed a lot between like beginning of December and today.

我想你今天提到過，但是——我問的原因是，眾所周知，從 12 月初到今天，遠期曲線發生了很大變化。

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Sure.

當然。

So in terms of our curve, we do have two rate cut assumptions embedded, I think ones in May and one's in September.

因此，就我們的曲線而言，我們確實嵌入了兩個降息假設，我認為一個是在 5 月，一個是在 9 月。

So that's kind of how we think about the short end of the curve.

這就是我們對曲線短端的看法。

And the long end of the curve is at this level.

曲線的長端就在這個水平。

So right now, the 10-year treasury is at

所以現在10年國庫券的價格是

[$4.65].

[4.65 美元]。

That's probably a good place.

那或許是個好地方。

That's kind of where we're at kind of throughout the year.

這就是我們全年的情況。

Of course, we know that it's volatile, it's been volatile, and that's why I say the curve does matter when we kind of look at these sorts of things.

當然，我們知道它是不穩定的，它一直是不穩定的，這就是為什麼我說當我們看待這類事情時曲線確實很重要。

But that's -- those are our projections.

但這是我們的預測。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And can you help us understand how your projections would move in the event that you've got fewer rate cuts or the long end went up more?

您能否幫助我們了解，如果您的降息幅度較小或長期利率上升較多，您的預測將如何改變？

Exactly.

確切地。

So again, we have continued to be neutral from an interest rate risk standpoint.

因此，從利率風險的角度來看，我們繼續保持中立。

So as I mentioned, we expect two cuts, but if those cuts don't manifest or the Fed even hikes, or there's more cuts, which we know the cycle is right, things will shift.

正如我所提到的，我們預計會有兩次降息，但如果這些降息沒有顯現出來，或者聯準會甚至升息，或者有更多降息，我們知道週期是正確的，那麼情況就會改變。

We want to be as neutral as possible to those particular movements from the Fed on the short end of the curve.

我們希望對聯準會在曲線短端的特定變動盡可能保持中立。

Where there is -- can be some changes really on the shape of the curve.

曲線形狀確實可能會發生一些變化。

So a steeper curve, the better off we are.

因此，曲線越陡，我們的情況就越好。

If it's more inverted, then that would put a little bit more pressure on the net interest income.

如果倒掛得更多，那麼淨利息收入的壓力就會更大一些。

So at a high level, those are kind of the puts and takes.

因此，從較高的層面來看，這些都是看跌選擇權和索取選擇權。

And as we roll through the year, can you just give us a sense as to that fixed asset repricing?

當我們回顧這一年時，您能否讓我們了解固定資產重新定價？

Is it coming through kind of quarterly cadence the same?

每季的節奏是否相同？

Or is there any acceleration or deceleration during the year that we should be thinking about?

或者說，這一年中是否有任何加速或減速值得我們思考？

It's pretty consistent.

這是相當一致的。

So I mentioned the $5 billion to $7 billion per quarter.

所以我提到了每季 50 億到 70 億美元。

I mean, it's going to range in that corridor each quarter.

我的意思是，每個季度都會在該走廊範圍內變化。

But it doesn't accelerate, it doesn't tail off.

但它不會加速，也不會減弱。

It's pretty consistent throughout the course of the year.

全年的情況都非常穩定。

Same on the investment portfolio, pretty consistent.

投資組合相同，相當一致。

Okay, thank you so much.

好的，非常感謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Sorry if I missed this in your prepared remarks.

很抱歉，如果我在您準備好的發言中錯過了這一點。

When we think about the NII guidance for the year, your revenue outlook, what's underpinning that from a loan growth perspective, like, one -- so yes, what's the assumption of lower end deposit growth?

當我們考慮今年的國家資訊基礎設施指引時，你的收入前景，從貸款成長的角度來看，支撐這一前景的因素是什麼，例如，那麼，是的，低端存款成長的假設是什麼？

And are we seeing any green shoots of a pickup in lending demand?

我們是否看到貸款需求有所回升？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Ebrahim.

謝謝，易卜拉欣。

So we did not comment yet on loans, but I would just say in terms -- for purposes of our forecast and how we're thinking about '25, we have pretty modest loan and deposit growth for the full year.

因此，我們還沒有對貸款發表評論，但我只想說——出於我們的預測以及我們如何看待 25 年的目的，我們全年的貸款和存款增長相當溫和。

Now, in terms of sentiment and things of that variety, clearly, there's a lot of positivity.

現在，就情緒和各種事物而言，顯然存在著許多積極性。

Our client base is excited.

我們的客戶群很興奮。

I think there's a lot of momentum clearly in our pipelines that we can see has not yet translated into elevated loan growth at this point.

我認為我們的管道中顯然有很多動力，我們可以看到目前尚未轉化為貸款成長的增加。

But perhaps that changes we're thinking hopefully, in the back half of the year.

但也許這會在今年下半年改變我們的想法。

We can see that pickup in loan growth.

我們可以看到貸款成長的回升。

But in terms of our forecast and our projections, we anticipate modest for the year.

但就我們的預測和預測而言，我們預計今年的表現將溫和。

Got it.

知道了。

And I guess maybe just talk about -- I think you addressed a little bit around the payments business.

我想也許只是談談——我想你談到了一些關於支付業務的問題。

As we think about the fee revenue sort of category across payments, if you can sort of drill into expectations around that year-over-year in context of your overall revenue guide, and obviously, you brought in a new Head of Payments yesterday.

當我們考慮跨支付的費用收入類別時，如果您可以在總體收入指南的背景下深入了解該年度的預期，顯然，您昨天引入了新的支付主管。

Remind us of the market positioning, are we winning share, losing market share?

提醒我們市場定位，我們是贏得份額，還是失去市場份額？

And what the ambition is there going forward?

未來的雄心是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

So as I mentioned in payments earlier, we have momentum on the core side.

正如我之前在支付中提到的，我們在核心方面有動力。

We had some headwinds there.

我們在那裡遇到了一些阻力。

So if I just kind of go through the different categories.

所以如果我只是瀏覽一下不同的類別。

On the card side of things, we had strong sales; on the credit card side, [5] just over -- nearly 6% really.

在卡片方面，我們的銷售強勁；在信用卡方面，[5] 剛剛超過——實際上接近 6%。

And total revenue was hurt and prepaid this quarter by about 4 percentage points, given the [exiting] in some of our prepaid revenue.

鑑於我們的一些預付費收入[退出]，本季的總收入和預付費收入受到了約 4 個百分點的影響。

That's going to impact us again in the first quarter, but then we'll fully lap that in the second quarter.

這將在第一季再次影響我們，但我們將在第二季完全解決這個問題。

But continuing in the card side, we anticipate growth there, and we have a lot of momentum in different products.

但繼續在卡片方面，我們預計該領域會出現成長，並且我們在不同產品上有很大的動力。

We have our Smartly card that is coming online.

我們的 Smartly 卡即將上線。

We have a lot of excitement around that.

我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our Union acquisition, increasing that penetration.

我們收購了 Union，提高了滲透率。

So we continue to expect that mid-single-digit growth in terms of -- on the retail card side of things.

因此，我們繼續預期零售卡方面將出現中等個位數的成長。

On the merchant side of things, we've had, again, strong sales.

在商家方面，我們再次實現了強勁的銷售。

Our tech-led formation and growth there has been really strong.

我們以技術為主導的組建和成長非常強勁。

We've been making investments.

我們一直在進行投資。

We expect travel to improve same-store sales to improve.

我們預計旅遊業將改善同店銷售額。

Clearly, our growth rate in '24 was below our expectations and as we see a lot more high volume, lower margin type clients continuing their pace, we're looking at the growth rate as better than, of course, 2024, but it may not be at our aspiration of high single digits for 2025.

顯然，我們 24 年的成長率低於我們的預期，而且隨著我們看到更多高銷量、低利潤類型的客戶繼續保持成長速度，我們認為成長率當然會好於 2024 年，但可能會達不到我們對2025 年高個位數的期望。

And then on the CPS side of things, strong quarter.

然後在 CPS 方面，季度表現強勁。

The growth that we had [their] best year.

我們經歷了最好的一年的成長。

We've been making a lot of investments there.

我們在那裡進行了大量投資。

The pipelines are strong.

管道很堅固。

Freight, we have lapped.

貨運，我們已經一圈了。

So a lot of positive things there.

所以有很多正面的事情。

And again, the Union penetration is going to be really paying off for us as well.

再說一次，聯盟的滲透也將為我們帶來真正的回報。

And so we see high single digits there as well.

因此我們也看到了較高的個位數。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早安。

You did announce that $5 billion share repurchase authorization during Investor Day, and I think the market got quite excited about that.

你們確實在投資者日期間宣布了 50 億美元的股票回購授權，我認為市場對此感到非常興奮。

In terms of the pacing of the buybacks, you did $100 million this quarter.

就回購節奏而言，本季您回購了 1 億美元。

I guess, I heard you guys loud and clear during the prepared remarks, but what are the puts and takes that you're considering in terms of thinking about that pacing?

我想，我在準備好的發言中清楚地聽到了你們的聲音，但是在考慮節奏方面，你們正在考慮哪些看點和看點？

I know that you're looking for a modest pace to begin with.

我知道您一開始就希望保持適度的節奏。

But if loan growth is a little soft and it seems like you have conservative guidance embedded in your revenue guide for balance sheet growth, what are the puts and takes in terms of the more modest start to buy backs?

但是，如果貸款成長有點疲軟，並且您的資產負債表成長收入指南中似乎包含保守的指導，那麼在更溫和的回購開始方面，有哪些看跌期權和看跌期權？

Sure.

當然。

At a high level, Erika, it's really the balance between growing our capital to get to where we need to be from a Category II perspective.

從較高的層面來看，Erika，這實際上是增加我們的資本與從第二類角度達到我們需要的目標之間的平衡。

We talked about 10% being an approximate level of where we want to be on a cat II basis.

我們談到 10% 是我們希望在 Cat II 基礎上達到的大致水準。

And obviously, we don't expect to be a cat II bank until 2027, or thereabouts.

顯然，我們預計要到 2027 年左右才能成為 II 類銀行。

So that's really the one side of it.

這確實是一方面。

The other side is, as you said, loan growth, if it's weaker, then there's an opportunity for deployment.

另一方面，正如你所說，貸款成長如果較弱，那麼就有部署的機會。

But we're going to be -- we're going to -- as we just started, we're stepping into this, and we talked about the next quarter and the pace thereafter is just going to be dictated on those factors that I just mentioned.

但我們將——我們將——正如我們剛剛開始的那樣，我們正在步入這個階段，我們討論了下一個季度，此後的步伐將取決於我所考慮的那些因素。

And just as a follow-up here, and maybe this is for Andy.

就像這裡的後續行動一樣，也許這是給安迪的。

The way you laid out your projection on slide 15 in terms of the revenue guide and then positive operating leverage.

您在投影片 15 上根據收入指南和積極的營運槓桿制定預測的方式。

If net interest income or payments swing one way or the other, either to the better or maybe softer, is the message here that there's -- you're now to a point where there is enough flex where regardless of the revenue environment, that 200-plus basis points is going to be sort of the baseline for what you can deliver in 2025?

如果淨利息收入或付款以某種方式波動，無論是向好還是向軟，這裡的信息是——你現在已經到了一個有足夠彈性的地步，無論收入環境如何，200 -加基點將成為您在2025 年可以實現的目標的基線嗎？

Sure, Erika.

當然，艾莉卡。

Short answer, Erika, is yes, it's 200 basis points plus on positive operating leverage.

簡短的回答，艾莉卡，是的，它是 200 個基點加上積極的經營槓桿。

We do have flex on expense.

我們確實在費用上有彈性。

I'm going to ask John to highlight some of the areas.

我將請約翰強調一些領域。

But we've been managing to a flat expense base for a number of quarters.

但我們幾季的支出基礎一直保持不變。

This is our fifth quarter of flat expenses.

這是我們第五季的固定支出。

We're still investing in the company; we're managing across many different areas.

我們仍在對該公司進行投資；我們正在管理許多不同的領域。

And we are very confident in that positive operating leverage regardless of what the revenue environment is.

無論收入環境如何，我們都對這種積極的營運槓桿充滿信心。

And John, why don't you talk about some of the levers?

約翰，為什麼不談一些槓桿呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Clearly, we've done a lot of work on the expense.

顯然，我們在費用方面做了很多工作。

We're very proud of the efforts that the teams have made thus far, but we have continued to see different levers that we're looking at.

我們對團隊迄今為止所做的努力感到非常自豪，但我們繼續看到我們正在尋找的不同槓桿。

And will kind of throughout the year, kind of talk more about.

並將在全年中進行更多討論。

But obviously, we had a notable item on the real estate side of things.

但顯然，我們在房地產方面有一個值得注意的項目。

There's -- continue to be optimization there.

那裡——繼續優化。

Procurement and third-party spend actions, we see opportunities as well as organizational simplicity and bringing fragmented groups together and centralizing certain aspects.

在採購和第三方支出行動中，我們看到了機會以及組織的簡單性，並將分散的群體聚集在一起並集中某些方面。

And then just automation of processes.

然後就是流程的自動化。

We have a lot of the investments that we've been talking about over Investor Day, help us manage that expense by automating certain processes.

我們在投資者日討論了很多投資，透過自動化某些流程來幫助我們管理這些費用。

And then that inflection point that we talked about in terms of investment in our digital capabilities.

然後是我們在數位能力投資方面談到的轉捩點。

So the stabilization of that digital investment we've increase that amount all along that J curve, if you will, and now we're at a flat place, and we're bending that cost curve on the digital side which we're really excited about.

因此，為了穩定數位投資，我們已經沿著 J 曲線增加了這一數額，如果你願意的話，現在我們處於平坦的位置，我們正在彎曲數字方面的成本曲線，我們實際上是興奮於。

So those are kind of the main pieces.

這些是主要部分。

There's others.

還有其他人。

We have a lot of different initiatives, but those are the different levers that we look at.

我們有很多不同的舉措，但這些是我們關注的不同槓桿。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank.

感謝。

Thanks Erika.

謝謝埃里卡。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Just appreciate the color, the breakout of the revenue growth outlook by fees and then your commentary around net interest income.

只需欣賞顏色、按費用劃分的收入成長前景的突破，以及您對淨利息收入的評論即可。

Just behind that net interest income commentary, and some of the drivers you mentioned around fixed asset repricing and deposit normalization, could you give us maybe your thoughts around the net interest margin trajectory as we look through the year?

在淨利息收入評論以及您提到的有關固定資產重新定價和存款正常化的一些驅動因素的背後，您能否告訴我們您對全年淨利差軌蹟的看法？

And perhaps maybe even help us with how the -- where the margin could end up as an [at the as an exit rate] coming out of 2025, just to help give us a better color around what it means for the medium-term trends?

也許甚至可以幫助我們了解 2025 年利潤率最終會如何[以退出率]，只是為了幫助我們更好地了解它對中期趨勢的意義？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

And given the drivers, we do anticipate net interest margin to follow net interest income and increase, we certainly -- from a management standpoint, we don't manage the net interest margin.

考慮到驅動因素，我們確實預期淨利差將跟隨淨利息收入而增加，當然，從管理的角度來看，我們不管理淨利差。

As an example, this quarter, it fell 3 basis points entirely due to liquidity, right.

舉個例子，這個季度，它下跌了3個基點，完全是因為流動性，對吧。

So I mean there's always going to be transitional puts and takes to it.

所以我的意思是總是會有過渡性的投入和採取。

But directionally, it should follow.

但從方向上來說，它應該遵循。

We talked about at Investor Day, about how -- not that there's anything magical about 3%, but I mean, there's certainly a lot of momentum in all those categories and drivers that I just mentioned really to kind of get us into that level over time.

我們在投資者日討論瞭如何——並不是說3% 有什麼神奇之處，但我的意思是，我剛才提到的所有這些類別和驅動因素確實有很大的動力，可以讓我們進入這個水平時間。

I think the big things that can move it are really loan growth as that goes up and down, deposit management and then the shape of the curve, which impacts our fixed asset or our back book repricing.

我認為，能夠推動這一趨勢的重要因素實際上是貸款成長、存款管理以及曲線的形狀，這會影響我們的固定資產或帳面重新定價。

So those are going to be the components but certainly expect directionally the net interest margin to improve as we march through time.

因此，這些將成為組成部分，但隨著時間的推移，我們肯定預期淨利差會定向改善。

Got it.

知道了。

All right, John.

好吧，約翰。

And then separately, back to capital.

然後分別，回到首都。

On the M&A front, I know post the Investor Day, you've been clear that large -- a whole bank M&A would only be more of a consideration longer term as you look at your franchise versus a near-term opportunity.

在併購方面，我知道在投資者日之後，您已經明確表示，當您考慮您的特許經營權而不是近期機會時，整個銀行的大型併購只會更多地作為長期考慮。

I guess, Andy, has that, or Gunjan, has that changed at all?

我想，安迪，或 Gunjan，這一切有改變嗎？

Or just given the election results and how comprehensively we expect a regulatory supervisory role change across the different regulators?

或者只是考慮到選舉結果以及我們期望不同監管機構的監管角色變化的全面程度？

And then does it -- I guess another question would be what would change your view in terms of possibly putting M&A options more in the near-term view?

然後呢——我想另一個問題是，什麼會改變你對可能將併購選項更多地放在近期觀點方面的看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So John, our perspective is the same, which is it's not a priority for us right now.

所以約翰，我們的觀點是相同的，這不是我們現在的優先事項。

The combination of the purchase accounting marks, the regulatory approval process, which may improve, but isn't clear yet.

採購會計標記的組合、監管審批流程可能會有所改善，但目前尚不清楚。

And the current bank valuations all factor into this.

目前的銀行估值都影響到了這一點。

So while it may return large bank M&A, may return over the longer term, we're very focused on our organic growth opportunities because we have a lot of them.

因此，雖然它可能會帶來大型銀行併購的回報，也可能在較長時期內帶來回報，但我們非常關注我們的有機成長機會，因為我們有很多這樣的機會。

And that's where we're putting our efforts and priorities right now.

這就是我們現在正在努力和優先考慮的地方。

And Gunjan, maybe you can highlight a couple of them because I think that emphasis is because of the opportunities that we have in front of us.

Gunjan，也許你可以強調其中的幾個，因為我認為強調是因為我們面前有機會。

Very true.

非常真實。

Good morning John.

早安，約翰。

I'll add that while the regulatory environment is very attractive for our organic growth opportunities, too, we saw a very significant acceleration of our trust and investment fees and our capital markets fees because investor confidence and consumer confidence is very high.

我要補充的是，雖然監管環境對我們的有機成長機會也非常有吸引力，但我們看到我們的信託和投資費用以及資本市場費用顯著加速，因為投資者信心和消費者信心非常高。

So the ability to drive a real inflection in organic growth, with positive operating leverage is very much our focus.

因此，透過積極的營運槓桿推動有機成長的真正轉變的能力是我們的重點。

And it's across many parts of our business.

它涉及我們業務的許多部分。

On the product side, we have a balance sheet that would support a much bigger capital markets business.

在產品方面，我們的資產負債表可以支持更大的資本市場業務。

So we are very focused on that.

所以我們非常關注這一點。

We're introducing new capabilities there at quite a good pace.

我們正在以相當快的速度引入新功能。

And the interconnectivity across our product sets is really deepening the franchise as well.

我們的產品集之間的互連性也確實加深了特許經營權。

So it's a very good strategy to drive growth with positive operating leverage, and that is our focus right now.

因此，這是一個非常好的策略，透過積極的營運槓桿來推動成長，這也是我們現在的重點。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you, Gunjan.

謝謝你，岡詹。

Thanks John.

謝謝約翰。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券

Morning.

早晨。

Now you're finally turning the corner on positive [orto] leverage.

現在，您終於在正[orto]槓桿作用下扭轉了局面。

You said at least 200 basis points, I think, after, so long not having positive leverage.

你說至少200個基點，我想，在這麼長時間沒有正槓桿之後。

I think people are wondering -- it's kind of a show me story.

我認為人們想知道——這是一個給我看的故事。

I think you might understand that.

我想你可能會理解這一點。

Under what scenario do you think you could have more than the 200 basis points guide?

您認為在什麼情況下可能會超過 200 個基點指引？

Some other banks are actually guiding higher today and you have some a lot of tailwinds in the industry.

其他一些銀行今天的指引實際上更高，而且該行業有很多順風車。

So how high could that go?

那麼它能達到多高呢？

Because the stock's down, people are questioning this.

由於股價下跌，人們對此提出質疑。

What would be your reaction.

你會有什麼反應。

Mike, what we wanted to do is to provide a guy that we have confidence and that we're conservatively giving you numbers.

麥克，我們想要做的是提供一個我們有信心的人，我們會保守地給你數字。

I'm very confident in our ability to manage expense in this environment, and I'm very confident in the inflection [point] on the revenue components.

我對我們在這種環境下管理費用的能力非常有信心，而且我對收入組成部分的轉折點也非常有信心。

So that's why we put a 200 basis point-plus on that guide.

這就是為什麼我們將該指南上調了 200 個基點。

So we'll hit [200] at least.

所以我們至少會達到[200]。

But to the extent that the market helps us on the revenue side with the yield curve and the things that John talked about, I expect it to be above that.

但就市場透過殖利率曲線和約翰談到的事情在收入方面幫助我們而言，我預計它會高於此。

But we want to give you a guide and an expectation that we're very comfortable with and that we take into account the different puts and takes that are a little bit out of our control like yield curve.

但我們想為您提供我們非常滿意的指南和期望，我們考慮了不同的看跌期權和看跌期權，這些期權和期權有點超出我們的控制範圍，例如收益率曲線。

And then more specific question.

然後是更具體的問題。

The merchant acquiring yield looked like it contracted 70 basis points year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and the revenues didn't accelerate most the volumes.

第四季的商家收單殖利率看起來比去年同期收縮了 70 個基點，而且營收並沒有加速銷量的成長。

Was that expected?

這是預期的嗎？

Was that a surprise?

這是一個驚喜嗎？

Is there a competitive pressure?

有競爭壓力嗎？

What's causing that 70 basis points contraction in the merchant acquiring yield?

是什麼原因導致商家收單收益率下降 70 個基點？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

So Mike, I think I mentioned, although it was pretty quick when I mentioned that our client base, while we had strong growth in terms of same-store sales and [tech-led] initiatives, which are the tech-led has strong margins, and it continues to be about a third and has been growing a third of our total business on the merchant side.

所以麥克，我想我提到過，儘管當我提到我們的客戶群時速度很快，而我們在同店銷售和[技術主導]計劃方面有強勁增長，而技術主導的計劃具有強勁的利潤率，它仍然占我們商戶總業務的三分之一左右，並且一直在增長。

The growth on the other side of our client base has been in higher volume, lower margin, and that has persisted kind of throughout the year, and that's kind of creating that disconnect that you just mentioned and kind of talked about the expectations that we have here in 2025 as kind of followed because of that.

我們客戶群的另一邊的增長是數量增加、利潤率下降，這種情況全年都持續存在，這在某種程度上造成了您剛才提到的脫節，並談到了我們的期望因此，2025 年的情況也隨之而來。

I can add some color here, John, if I may.

如果可以的話，約翰，我可以在這裡添加一些顏色。

We were disappointed in the merchant results for this quarter as well, but the business is really showing two very different characteristics.

我們對本季的商家業績也感到失望，但該業務確實呈現出兩種截然不同的特徵。

That's the part that we are very proud of, which is the tech-led part, about a third of the business now.

這是我們非常自豪的部分，也就是技術主導的部分，現在大約是業務的三分之一。

The value proposition to the customer and the client across our franchise is very strong there, and we see very nice growth rates there. talech and Salucro were two acquisitions we did around the retail space and the healthcare space.

我們的特許經營權對客戶和客戶的價值主張非常強大，而且我們在那裡看到了非常好的成長率。 talech 和 Salucro 是我們圍繞零售領域和醫療保健領域的兩項收購。

So that part, you see revenue and sales volumes show good patents.

因此，在這一部分，您會看到收入和銷售顯示出良好的專利。

On the other side, we have a very vast group of partners, and we just saw growth in a few very large volume, low-margin businesses.

另一方面，我們擁有非常龐大的合作夥伴群體，但我們只看到了一些銷售量非常大、利潤率較低的業務的成長。

And some of that might persist on that side of the business, but that was the quarter here.

其中一些可能會持續存在於業務的那一方面，但那是本季的情況。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

I was wondering if you could talk about the trends in Commercial Products revenue.

我想知道您是否可以談談商業產品收入的趨勢。

It was up nicely year-over-year, but was a little bit lower versus kind of the run rate you've seen the other quarters this year.

年比成長良好，但與今年其他季度的運行率相比略低。

Just remind us, I think there's a decent contributor of Capital Markets in that and remind us like what the drivers of the underlying businesses are?

請提醒我們，我認為資本市場在這方面做出了相當大的貢獻，並提醒我們基礎業務的驅動因素是什麼？

Sure.

當然。

So this is the Commercial Products, Matt, is what I heard you say.

這就是商業產品，馬特，這就是我聽到你說的話。

So yes, we had strong growth in Commercial Products has been a good story for us.

所以，是的，我們在商業產品方面的強勁成長對我們來說是一個好故事。

We've highlighted it, of course, at various investor conferences.

當然，我們在各種投資者會議上強調了這一點。

Obviously, at Investor Day then in a fourth quarter conference as well.

顯然，在投資者日和第四季會議上也是如此。

So we've talked quite a bit about it.

所以我們已經談了很多。

But the growth really came in a lot of different areas here.

但成長確實出現在許多不同的領域。

This quarter, it was in client-related derivative activity, which were either interest rate swaps or foreign exchange.

本季度，主要從事與客戶相關的衍生性商品活動，包括利率掉期或外匯。

Loan syndication was up as well, bond underwriting.

銀團貸款和債券承銷也有所增加。

And we're seeing the new products also kick in.

我們看到新產品也開始發揮作用。

So we've talked about some of our other ABS desk, syndication desks and commodities and things like that.

我們已經討論了其他一些 ABS 服務台、聯合服務台和大宗商品以及類似的事情。

And so that's -- it's about 20% of our growth this year was really on the new product side.

所以，今年我們的成長大約 20% 確實來自新產品方面。

And the verticals interconnectedness we have with the private credit side of things really help us focus in on that growth.

我們與私人信貸方面的垂直互聯確實有助於我們專注於這種成長。

And we expect -- and we've talked about our expectations with that, and nothing has really changed.

我們期望——我們已經談論了我們的期望，但沒有任何真正改變。

We have high expectations for this business.

我們對這項業務抱有很高的期望。

Okay.

好的。

And then separately on the deposits, the average deposits grew and I knew I noticed some seasonality on the period end.

然後就存款而言，平均存款有所增長，我知道我注意到期末存在一些季節性。

But they were down a little bit this quarter for the third quarter in a row.

但本季他們連續第三季略有下降。

So maybe I just answered the question that there's too much seasonality to really focus on period end, but maybe just address that.

所以也許我只是回答了這樣的問題：季節性因素太多，無法真正關注期末，但也許只是解決這個問題。

And I think you did say you expect modest deposit growth.

我認為您確實說過您預計存款將適度增長。

So anything to add to the narrative though that the period end was lower?

那麼，儘管期末較低，但還有什麼可以補充的嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

So for us, as we've talked about, the average balance is a better indicator than ending and the ending can really fluctuate.

因此，對我們來說，正如我們所討論的，平均餘額是比結局更好的指標，而且結局確實可能會波動。

We do get -- we can get some pretty meaningful movements at the end of quarters, particularly in the third quarter was very strong from a deposit growth standpoint.

我們確實得到了——我們可以在季度末得到一些非常有意義的變動，特別是從存款成長的角度來看，第三季非常強勁。

And so even though we had a pretty big surge of deposits at the end of the fourth quarter, it was compared to a really high third quarter.

因此，儘管我們在第四季末的存款大幅增加，但與第三季的存款水準相比卻非常高。

So that's just kind of one example.

這只是一個例子。

In the first quarter, part of the reason we talk about a stable net interest income for the first quarter is in the first quarter, deposits seasonally declined, particularly in our institutional and wholesale side of things in DDA as an example, just because if you think about our operational accounts that we have there.

在第一季度，我們談論第一季淨利息收入穩定的部分原因是在第一季度，存款季節性下降，特別是在我們以 DDA 為例的機構和批發方面，只是因為如果你想想我們在那裡的營運帳戶。

There's a lot of either deployment of investments from our institutional clients or just overall investment from our corporate-related clients.

我們的機構客戶部署了許多投資，或只是我們企業相關客戶的整體投資。

And so that's kind of a driver of Q1 from a deposit standpoint.

因此，從存款的角度來看，這是第一季的驅動因素。

But overall, you should think about deposits being a modest growth consistent with the industry, those sorts of things is kind of how I'd characterize it.

但總的來說，你應該考慮存款的適度增長，與行業一致，這些都是我對它的描述。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

David Long, Raymond James.

大衛朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Just wanted to stick with the deposit theme here.

只是想堅持這裡的存款主題。

And when I look at your average cost -- deposit cost for the quarter, it came down in line with what I'm seeing with some of your peers.

當我查看你們的平均成本——本季的存款成本時，它的下降與我在你們的一些同行中看到的情況一致。

And just curious what you're seeing in the competition for deposits and in pricing?

只是好奇您在存款競爭和定價方面看到了什麼？

And how do you think that plays out throughout 2025?

您認為 2025 年會如何？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

So from a deposit standpoint, and this is again, embedded in our growth projections and things like that of modest growth in deposits.

因此，從存款的角度來看，這再次體現在我們的成長預測和存款適度成長等內容。

I do expect it to be kind of equal in terms of either -- whether it's on the consumer side or on the institutional side.

我確實希望在這兩方面都是平等的——無論是在消費者方面還是在機構方面。

If I kind of break those two pieces apart, on the consumer side, it seems like things have been -- it's kind of either -- it comes and goes in terms of competitive nature, I would say, more lately with the rate cuts that have occurred, that's loosened things up.

如果我把這兩部分分開，在消費者方面，似乎事情一直是——它是某種——它在競爭性質方面來來去去，我想說，最近隨著降息，發生了，事情就放鬆了。

And so we're seeing a little bit better in terms of pricing competitively.

因此，我們在定價方面看到了更好的競爭力。

It may not show up immediately this quarter.

它可能不會在本季度立即顯現出來。

But over time, we would expect the retail competitiveness to moderate.

但隨著時間的推移，我們預期零售競爭力將會減弱。

On the institutional side, that also kind of comes and goes, but I would call it pretty standard at this point.

在製度方面，這也是一種來來去去的情況，但我認為目前它是相當標準的。

I think the one negative or headwind right now is QT that's been drying up liquidity and that can create some competitive nature on the institutional side.

我認為目前的一個負面因素或逆風是 QT，它導致流動性枯竭，並可能在機構方面創造一些競爭性質。

But all in all, we expect to be obviously very competitive out there.

但總而言之，我們期望那裡的競爭力明顯非常強。

We have a lot of new great products that are helping us grow deposits, and we feel very strongly about that.

我們有許多新的優秀產品正在幫助我們增加存款，我們對此有強烈的感受。

And those are kind of the main puts and takes.

這些是主要的看跌期權。

Excellent thanks, John, appreciate it.

非常感謝，約翰，非常感謝。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

維韋克·朱尼賈 (Vivek Juneja)，摩根大通。

Hi thanks.

你好，謝謝。

So a strategic question.

這是一個戰略問題。

Payments, there's been some discussion about that already.

付款，已經有一些討論了。

And it's a question we've talked on previous calls.

這是我們在之前的電話中討論過的問題。

Your -- I heard Gunjan's response, the [tech-leds] doing well, but the rest of companies to drag and that probably cut news into next year.

我聽到了 Gunjan 的回應，[科技主導] 表現良好，但其他公司表現不佳，這可能會影響明年的消息。

Given the business, given the pricing pressures, have you considered about whether you should get rid of this business and deploy the capital to other areas where you're doing a much -- where you're in a much stronger position, getting better returns.

考慮到這項業務，考慮到定價壓力，您是否考慮過是否應該擺脫這項業務，並將資金部署到您正在做很多事情的其他領域，在這些領域您處於更有利的地位，獲得更好的回報。

Why wouldn't you think of that?

為什麼不考慮這一點呢？

I'll start Vivek and ask Gunjan to add on.

我將啟動 Vivek 並請 Gunjan 添加。

But I think in this environment, this interconnectedness of banking and payments is as important as it's ever been.

但我認為在這種環境下，銀行和支付的這種相互連結一如既往地重要。

And the concept of moving money together with storing money and lending money is all intertwined.

轉移資金與儲存資金和借貸的概念是相互交織的。

And to the extent we can offer these things together, with a terrific technology platform that we have, and also have the ability to grow that in a very capital-efficient, fee focused way is why we want to retain the business.

在某種程度上，我們可以透過我們擁有的出色的技術平台一起提供這些東西，並且有能力以非常資本高效、以費用為中心的方式發展這些平台，這就是我們希望保留業務的原因。

And the interconnectiveness of that is as critical as it's been in the last 20 years.

這種互聯性與過去 20 年來一樣至關重要。

So we're very focused on this business because of that opportunity.

因此，由於這個機會，我們非常關注這項業務。

And Gunjan why don't you add on?

Gunjan 為什麼不補充一下呢？

Good morning, it's a thoughtful question.

早上好，這是一個深思熟慮的問題。

And I'll add to what Andy is saying here.

我將補充安迪在這裡所說的內容。

First, just -- we are talking about deltas to expectations, but the business has very high returns.

首先，我們談論的是預期的增量，但該業務的回報率非常高。

It's a very attractive business.

這是一項非常有吸引力的業務。

It is an area where a lot of competitive set has been building market share, and we are seeing more disciplined come into this industry, just focus on profitability, focus on a return on investments rather than just market share gains.

在這個領域，許多競爭者一直在建立市場份額，我們看到這個行業更加自律，只專注於獲利能力，專注於投資回報，而不僅僅是市場份額的成長。

And if you look long term, it is the one product where we have frequent deep and embedded interactions with our clients, and it anchors the client value proposition and the client retention in a way that is very hard to do from some of the banking and some of the more sort of routine products.

如果你著眼長遠，它是我們與客戶進行頻繁深入和嵌入互動的一個產品，它以一種某些銀行和銀行很難做到的方式錨定了客戶價值主張和客戶保留。 。

So we have deep conviction that money movement needs to be on the center of a financial relationship with the clients surrounded by banking capabilities.

因此，我們堅信，貨幣流動需要成為與銀行業務能力所包圍的客戶金融關係的中心。

I also just remind you of the size of just the various parts of our payments business.

我還想提醒您注意我們支付業務各個部分的規模。

It's a 25% of our total revenue, two-thirds of that our core credit card, card issuing business, very healthy, very steady market shares there.

它占我們總收入的 25%，占我們核心信用卡、發卡業務的三分之二，在那裡擁有非常健康、非常穩定的市場份額。

Our corporate payment and card issuing business is also looking at very healthy pipelines.

我們的企業支付和發卡業務也在尋找非常健康的管道。

All of this gives us great capacity to stay with the [indiscernible] business and build it out both for the small business and for the corporate areas.

所有這些都使我們有能力繼續從事[音訊不清晰]業務，並為小型企業和企業領域進行建立。

So to answer your question, it's a good question.

所以回答你的問題，這是一個好問題。

And strategically, you want this capability in the mix with your clients.

從策略上講，您希望將這種功能與您的客戶結合。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks Vivek.

謝謝維韋克。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什，沃爾夫研究中心。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Your tech-led merchant processing service revenue growth seems solid at a time, there's still a perception that you're at a disadvantage to some of your fintech competitors.

你們以科技為主導的商業處理服務收入成長一度看起來很穩健，但人們仍然認為你們相對於一些金融科技競爭對手處於劣勢。

Can you take us inside of that 9% growth and discuss the breakdown between new additions and versus customer attrition?

您能否帶我們了解 9% 的成長並討論新增加和客戶流失之間的細分？

Good morning Bill, let me just start here.

早安，比爾，讓我從這裡開始。

So the competition on the tech-led comes in two ways.

因此，以技術為主導的競爭有兩個面向。

One is the user experience on the front end.

一是前端的使用者體驗。

What we do with our partners here in the tech-led space is provide the reliability, the operations.

我們與合作夥伴在技術主導的領域所做的就是提供可靠性和營運。

It's not easy to be the back-end partner of a unique value proposition in the front.

要成為前端獨特價值主張的後端夥伴並不容易。

So it's fraud monitoring.

所以這是詐欺監控。

It's transaction monitoring.

這是交易監控。

It's reliability of systems.

這是系統的可靠性。

It's all of the networks that go into it.

這是所有進入其中的網路。

This is a very good partnership as much as it is competition with other areas.

這是一種非常好的合作關係，同時也是與其他領域的競爭。

It's a matter of where you're playing role.

這取決於你在哪裡扮演角色。

And we do expect that to be a really strong -- really strong contributor to the growth rate of this business.

我們確實預計這將對該業務的成長率做出非常強大的貢獻。

And as time go by, it will take over more and more of the total franchise.

隨著時間的推移，它將接管越來越多的總特許經營權。

To your question around sort of the new business versus now It's a very dynamic space.

對於你關於新業務與現在的問題，這是一個非常動態的空間。

I mean we have a vast number of partnerships and their success in the front end can shift that mix a little bit.

我的意思是，我們擁有大量的合作夥伴，他們在前端的成功可以稍微改變這個組合。

So it's really the portfolio that we manage to.

所以這確實是我們設法做到的投資組合。

Got it.

知道了。

Separately, following up on your NIM commentary, I may have missed this, but where did deposit funding costs in the quarter end?

另外，根據你的NIM評論，我可能錯過了這一點，但季度末的存款資金成本在哪裡？

And where would you expect the average cost to grow from here given your rate expectations?

考慮到您的費率預期，您預計平均成本會從現在開始成長多少？

Sure.

當然。

So from a deposit cost standpoint, maybe I'll speak to it in beta terms because I think it's just easier to utilize that because obviously, you're going to see a little bit of impact next quarter, but the Fed moves that we saw in the fourth quarter will impact the first quarter.

因此，從存款成本的角度來看，也許我會用測試版術語來談論它，因為我認為利用它更容易，因為顯然，下個季度你會看到一點影響，但我們看到的美聯儲舉措第第四季將影響第一季。

So our cumulative beta through the fourth quarter was 38%.

因此，我們第四季的累計貝塔值為 38%。

We anticipate our beta to be at kind of the mid- to high-40%s as we look at first quarter results.

從第一季的業績來看，我們預計貝塔值將在 40% 左右。

And so you'll see that decline on the deposit rate as we move forward.

因此，隨著我們的前進，您會看到存款利率下降。

Got it.

知道了。

If I could squeeze in one last one.

如果我能擠進最後一張就好了。

Can you discuss how much cash flow and fair value hedge notional is active?

您能否討論一下活躍的現金流量和公允價值避險有多少？

I guess, how that exposure changes as we progress through the year?

我想，隨著這一年的進展，這種曝光度會發生什麼樣的變化呢？

And any color on versus receive rates for both?

兩者的接收率和接收率有什麼不同嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So this quarter is actually a really good example of our hedging program at work and why it's working as intended.

因此，本季度實際上是我們對沖計劃發揮作用以及其為何按預期發揮作用的一個很好的例子。

We have pay fixed swaps, and we have received fixed swaps.

我們支付固定掉期，也收到固定掉期。

The pay fix swaps are intended to help protect capital when interest rates rise.

薪酬固定互換旨在利率上升時幫助保護資本。

They did rise.

他們確實崛起了。

We saw 80 basis point upward movement.

我們看到了 80 個基點的上升趨勢。

Our AOCI number did increase, but not nearly the magnitude that perhaps others and things of that right.

我們的 AOCI 數字確實增加了，但幅度還沒有達到其他人或類似事物的程度。

And that helps us manage that cat II capital level that I spoke to.

這有助於我們管理我所談到的第二類資本水準。

Obviously, with pay fixed swaps, that's going to create a little bit of a drag on NII.

顯然，透過支付固定掉期，這將對 NII 造成一些拖累。

However, offsetting that was our received fixed swaps that were attached to either commercial loans or debt and those received fixed swaps increased our rate relative to where they would have been otherwise.

然而，抵銷這一點的是我們收到的與商業貸款或債務掛鉤的固定掉期，而那些收到的固定掉期相對於其他情況提高了我們的利率。

And so you can think of those as largely offsetting.

所以你可以認為這些在很大程度上是抵消的。

So from an income standpoint, the hedges are relatively neutral.

因此，從收入的角度來看，對沖相對中性。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

You bet.

你打賭。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Hey, good morning guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

I think Vivek asked my question, but I'll maybe ask it another way.

我認為維韋克問了我的問題，但我也許會用另一種方​​式問。

I guess I'm struggling to see how you differentiate yourself in the merchant

我想我正在努力了解你如何在商家中脫穎而出

[product business].

【產品業務】。

With the exception of maybe Chase, most banks have a lot of share over the years.

除了大通銀行之外，大多數銀行多年來都擁有大量份額。

There's enormous amount of innovation in that space, a lot of capital in that space.

這個領域有大量的創新，有大量的資本。

You see the shift in power to software providers and legacy merchant acquirers have lost share over the years.

您將看到權力轉移到軟體供應商的轉移，而傳統的商家收單機構多年來失去了份額。

I guess like what I was going to ask you is whether you can make an argument that it's worth more to somebody else than to you?

我想我要問你的是，你是否可以證明它對其他人比對你更有價值？

And I guess the answer to that question from your answer to Vivek's question is that it does provide value to the entire franchise to the entire business?

我想從你對維韋克問題的回答中可以得出這個問題的答案是，它確實為整個特許經營權和整個業務提供了價值？

Is that the answer?

這就是答案嗎？

And I guess the adjuvant to that question is how do you measure success in the acquired business?

我想這個問題的輔助因素是你如何衡量被收購業務的成功？

Is this -- are you looking at just volume growth, revenue growth?

您是否只專注於銷售成長、營收成長？

Are there other measures?

還有其他措施嗎？

How do you measure whether you're -- whether this business -- you're succeeding in your strategy here and this business is adding value to the entire franchise?

你如何衡量你的策略是否成功以及這項業務是否為整個特許經營增加了價值？

So I'm going to start and then ask Gunjan to add on.

所以我要開始，然後請 Gunjan 補充。

This is Andy.

這是安迪。

I'm going to start by reiterating what I said before, which is this interconnectiveness of banking and money movement and payments.

首先，我將重申我之前所說的，也就是銀行業務、貨幣流動和支付的相互關聯性。

And we've made investments in categories and verticals that are very focused on capabilities to provide information and help those businesses run their platform and their business like healthcare and some of the other areas that we're focused on.

我們在類別和垂直領域進行了投資，這些投資非常注重提供資訊並幫助這些企業運營其平台和業務（例如醫療保健和我們關注的其他一些領域）的能力。

So what's happened in payments and money movement has become more embedded in the banking component.

因此，支付和貨幣流動中發生的事情已經更多地融入銀行業務中。

And I think that's our advantage versus a pure-play merchant provider, is interlocking those components to help them run their business.

我認為，與純粹的商業提供者相比，我們的優勢在於將這些組件聯鎖起來，以幫助他們經營業務。

And we've focused in certain verticals that are, I think, very important in terms of our overall growth opportunities.

我認為，我們專注於某些垂直領域，這對我們的整體成長機會非常重要。

And in terms of what we're looking for, it's all those things.

就我們正在尋找的東西而言，就是所有這些東西。

It's top line revenue growth, but importantly, bottom line profitable revenue growth.

這是頂線收入成長，但更重要的是底線獲利收入成長。

And the progress we've made in the tech-led, the interconnected components that we've talked about in terms of those verticals we're focused on, are all indications that we're headed in the right direction.

我們在技術主導方面取得的進展，以及我們在關注的垂直領域所討論的互連組件，都表明我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

We're not where we want to be yet.

我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標。

We're heading the right way.

我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

Gunjan, what would you add?

Gunjan，你會加什麼？

Add the power of the distribution franchise, we have 15 million clients.

加上經銷特許經營權的力量，我們擁有 1500 萬客戶。

And if you look at stand-alone players that bring a very high level of innovation, as you called it, to the table.

如果你看看獨立的參與者，他們會帶來非常高水準的創新，就像你所說的那樣。

Their gap is the client franchise, and that's where the partnerships come with some of the innovation in the industry.

他們的差距在於客戶的特許經營權，而這正是合作夥伴關係以及行業中一些創新的所在。

Saul, it's a lot of infrastructure and investment to connect the transaction and the provision of the services beyond the user experience and the innovation in the front.

Saul，除了使用者體驗和前面的創新之外，連接交易和提供服務需要大量的基礎設施和投資。

And so we see very significant demand for a partnership with us.

因此，我們看到與我們建立合作關係的需求非常大。

But the model has to transform in the direction that we are going, where we need to be able to provide and connect and have a very easy onboarding experience, very easy, quick ability to bring merchants on and off.

但這種模式必須朝著我們前進的方向轉變，我們需要能夠提供和連接，並擁有非常簡單的入職體驗，非常簡單、快速地吸引商家進出的能力。

And that's all of the investments that we have we have been making.

這就是我們一直在進行的所有投資。

So it's the distribution side and it's all of the back-end product capabilities that may give us the competitive edge here.

因此，分銷方面以及所有後端產品功能可能為我們帶來競爭優勢。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

I guess just a quick follow-up then on deposits, John.

我想只是對存款進行快速跟進，約翰。

I guess we're closer to the end of the rate cutting cycle, although seemingly every day, there's a shift in what the forward curve is expecting.

我想我們已經接近降息週期的結束，儘管遠期曲線的預期似乎每天都在改變。

But remind us what the through the cycle, on the beta you're expecting?

但請提醒我們，在整個週期中，您對測試版的期望是什麼？

I hear mid- to 40%s in Q1.

我聽說第一季是中到 40%。

I think like -- I think high 40%s, low 50%s is what you -- is that the right through the cycle beta?

我認為 - 我認為高 40%，低 50% 就是你 - 這是整個週期測試版的正確選擇嗎？

That's right Saul.

沒錯，索爾。

So we think about -- 38% is the spot through the cycle as of this quarter.

所以我們想——截至本季度，38% 是整個週期的點。

We expect mid- to high 40%s in the first quarter and assuming there's additional cuts, we would migrate kind of through the cycle to that 50%; north of that level is kind of where our expectations are.

我們預計第一季將達到 40% 的中高水平，假設有額外的削減，我們將在整個週期中遷移到 50%；該水平以北就是我們的期望。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And there are no further questions at this time, Mr. Anderson.

安德森先生，目前沒有其他問題。

I'll turn the conference back over to you.

我會把會議轉回給你。

Thanks Audra.

謝謝奧德拉。

Thank you to everyone who joined our call this morning.

感謝今天早上加入我們電話會議的所有人。

Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow up questions.

如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。

You may now disconnect the call.

您現在可以掛斷電話。

And this concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。