美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the U.S. Bancorp Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available replay beginning today at approximately 8:00 a.m. Central Time.

您好，歡迎參加美國合眾銀行 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話將從今天中部時間上午 8 點左右開始錄音並可重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治·安德森 (George Andersen)。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Andy Cecere; our Vice Chair and Chief Administration Officer, Terry Dolan; and our Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, John Stern.

謝謝莎拉，大家早安。今天，我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Andy Cecere 也加入了我的行列。我們的副主席兼首席行政官 Terry Dolan；以及我們的高級執行副總裁兼財務長約翰·斯特恩。

With their prepared remarks, Andy and John will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

安迪和約翰將在準備好的演講中參考幻燈片演示。簡報的副本以及我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表可在我們的網站 usbank.com 上取得。

Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, our earnings release, our Form 10-K and its subsequent reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

請注意，今天的電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。今天的簡報第 2 頁、我們的收益報告、我們的 10-K 表格及其隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中描述了可能對我們目前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。

Following our prepared remarks, Andy, Terry and John will take any questions that you have. I will now turn the call over to Andy.

在我們準備好的演講之後，安迪、特里和約翰將回答您提出的任何問題。我現在會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. I'll begin on Slide 3. In our fourth quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.49, which included $0.50 per share of notable items that John will discuss in more detail. Excluding these notable items, earnings per share totaled $0.99 in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，喬治。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。在第四季度，我們報告的每股收益為 0.49 美元，其中包括每股 0.50 美元的值得注意的項目，約翰將更詳細地討論這些項目。排除這些值得注意的項目，第四季每股收益總計 0​​.99 美元。

For the fourth quarter, on an adjusted basis, net revenue totaled $6.9 billion, and for the full year, we generated record net revenue of $28.3 billion. We demonstrated strength across our fee businesses, which helped to offset pressure on net interest income.

第四季度，經調整後的淨收入總額為 69 億美元，全年淨收入達到創紀錄的 283 億美元。我們在收費業務方面展現了實力，這有助於抵消淨利息收入的壓力。

Turning to Slide 4. Total loans were lower on a linked-quarter basis by 1.1%, reflecting slower demand, particularly in corporate lending, and continued focus on lending opportunities that meet our return hurdles. Average deposits declined compared with the third quarter as our strong funding position allowed us to be more disciplined on deposit pricing while maintaining our liquidity profile. Credit quality continued to normalize towards pre-pandemic levels this quarter, and we further strengthened the balance sheet by adding $49 million to our loan loss reserve.

轉向幻燈片 4。總貸款環比下降 1.1%，反映出需求放緩，尤其是企業貸款，以及我們繼續專注於滿足回報障礙的貸款機會。與第三季相比，平均存款有所下降，因為我們強大的資金狀況使我們能夠在保持流動性狀況的同時對存款定價更加嚴格。本季信貸品質持續正常化至疫情前的水平，我們透過增加 4,900 萬美元的貸款損失準備金進一步強化了資產負債表。

As of December 31, tangible book value per share increased 14.7% from a year ago, and our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the year at 9.9%, an increase of 20 basis points this quarter. This ratio is 150 basis points higher than when we completed the acquisition of Union Bank in the fourth quarter of 2022. Supported by our strong capital accretion this year, the Board approved an increase to our quarterly common dividend in December to $0.49 per common share.

截至 12 月 31 日，每股有形帳面價值較上年同期成長 14.7%，年底普通股一級資本比率為 9.9%，本季成長 20 個基點。這一比率比我們在2022 年第四季完成收購聯合銀行時高出150 個基點。在我們今年強勁的資本增值的支持下，董事會於12 月批准將我們的季度普通股股息提高至每股普通股0.49 美元。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics. On an adjusted basis, we delivered 19.6% return on tangible common equity in the fourth quarter and 21.7% return on tangible common equity for the full year.

投影片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。經調整後，我們第四季的有形普通股本回報率為 19.6%，全年有形普通股本回報率為 21.7%。

Let me now turn the call over to John, who will provide more details on the quarter as well as forward-looking guidance.

現在讓我將電話轉給約翰，他將提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊以及前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Andy. Turning to Slide 6. We reported diluted earnings per share of $0.49 for the quarter or $0.99 per share after adjusting for notable items. Notable items totaled $1.1 billion on a pretax basis or $780 million net of tax, representing a $0.50 reduction per diluted common share, including an FDIC special assessment charge of $734 million, offset by a benefit from tax settlements in the quarter.

謝謝，安迪。轉向幻燈片 6。我們報告本季攤薄後每股收益為 0.49 美元，對重要項目進行調整後每股收益為 0.99 美元。值得注意的項目總額為稅前 11 億美元，即稅後 7.8 億美元，稀釋後每股普通股減少 0.50 美元，其中包括 7.34 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估費用，被本季稅務結算收益所抵銷。

Other notable items this quarter included merger and integration costs of $171 million, a charitable contribution to fund our community benefits plan of $110 million and a balance sheet optimization charge of $118 million. This quarter, we opportunistically restructured a portion of our investment securities portfolio, which we expect will enhance our net interest income trajectory while also strengthening our capital and liquidity positioning. Slide 7 provides a more detailed earnings summary for the quarter.

本季其他值得注意的項目包括 1.71 億美元的合併和整合成本、1.1 億美元的社區福利計畫慈善捐款以及 1.18 億美元的資產負債表優化費用。本季度，我們機會性地重組了部分投資證券投資組合，我們預計這將改善我們的淨利息收入軌跡，同時也加強我們的資本和流動性定位。投影片 7 提供了本季更詳細的收益摘要。

Turning to Slide 8. We continue to manage the balance sheet prudently as we saw reduced loan demand this quarter and the competition for deposits remain heightened as system-wide liquidity declined. Total assets ended the year at $663 billion. Average loans declined 1.1% on a linked-quarter basis as growth in credit card loans, supported by consumer spending and low payment rates, was more than offset by weaker commercial loan demand.

轉向投影片 8。我們繼續審慎管理資產負債表，因為我們看到本季貸款需求減少，並且隨著全系統流動性下降，存款競爭仍然加劇。年底總資產達 6,630 億美元。平均貸款環比下降 1.1%，原因是消費者支出和低還款率支持下的信用卡貸款成長被商業貸款需求疲軟所抵消。

Average deposits declined 1.9% linked quarter. Given our strong deposit balances in the third quarter, we moderated our deposit pricing somewhat in the fourth quarter even as we grew consumer deposits by 1%.

平均存款季減 1.9%。鑑於第三季存款餘額強勁，我們在第四季度稍微調整了存款定價，儘管我們的消費者存款增加了 1%。

During the quarter, we rebalanced a portion of our securities portfolio, which provided risk-weighted asset relief and improved our overall earnings trajectory. The average yield on total investment securities portfolio increased to 2.97% for the fourth quarter, a 55 basis point increase compared to a year earlier.

在本季度，我們重新平衡了部分證券投資組合，這減輕了風險加權資產的負擔，並改善了我們的整體獲利軌跡。第四季證券投資組合平均殖利率增至2.97%，較去年同期上升55個基點。

As of December 31, the ending balance on the total investment securities portfolio was $161 billion. During the quarter, effective duration on the available-for-sale portfolio declined to less than 3 years as unrealized losses, net of tax, improved by approximately $2 billion given the movement in rates and repositioning.

截至12月31日，投資證券投資組合期末餘額為1,610億美元。本季度，由於利率變動和重新定位，未實現的稅後虧損減少了約 20 億美元，因此可供出售投資組合的有效期限下降至不到 3 年。

Turning to Slide 9. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis declined 3.0% linked quarter, driven by a modest decline in the net interest margin of 2.78%. The 3 basis point decline in the net interest margin reflected market dynamics, including deposit pricing pressure and unfavorable shifts in the deposit mix, partially offset by better earning asset spreads and improved total funding mix.

轉向投影片 9。在淨利差小幅下降 2.78% 的推動下，以完全應稅等值基礎計算的淨利息收入環比下降 3.0%。淨利差下降3個基點反映了市場動態，包括存款定價壓力和存款結構的不利變化，但部分被獲利資產利差改善和總融資結構改善所抵消。

In the first quarter of 2024, we expect net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis to be in the range of $4.0 billion to $4.1 billion. For the full year 2024, we expect net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis to be consistent with our annualized fourth quarter 2023 net interest income level of approximately $4.14 billion to up slightly.

2024 年第一季度，我們預計完全應稅等值基礎上的淨利息收入將在 40 億美元至 41 億美元之間。對於 2024 年全年，我們預計在完全應稅等值基礎上的淨利息收入將與我們 2023 年第四季約 41.4 億美元的年化淨利息收入水準保持一致，並略有上升。

Slide 10 highlights trends in noninterest income. Noninterest income, as adjusted, increased 12.1% on a year-over-year basis, driven by new account growth and deepening relationships across the business. Year-over-year payment service revenue benefited by continued strength in consumer and business spending activities, while increases in trust and investment management fees and commercial product revenue were driven by underlying market activity, a full fourth quarter with Union Bank and core growth.

幻燈片 10 突顯了非利息收入的趨勢。受新帳戶成長和整個業務關係深化的推動，調整後的非利息收入年增 12.1%。支付服務收入年增得益於消費者和企業支出活動的持續強勁，而信託和投資管理費以及商業產品收入的增長則受到基礎市場活動、聯合銀行和核心增長的整個第四季度的推動。

Turning to Slide 11. Noninterest expense, as adjusted, decreased by 1.0% on a linked-quarter basis, driven by lower compensation-related expense that was partially offset by strategic investments in marketing and business development.

轉向投影片 11。調整後的非利息費用較上季下降 1.0%，這是由於薪酬相關費用降低，但行銷和業務開發的策略投資部分抵銷了這一影響。

Slide 12 highlights our credit quality performance. Asset quality metrics trended in line with expectations and key metrics continued to normalize toward pre-pandemic levels. Our ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.40% at December 31 compared with 0.35% at September 30 and 0.26% a year ago. The fourth quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.49% increased 5 basis points from a third quarter level of 0.44% and was higher when compared to a fourth quarter 2022 level of 0.23%, as adjusted.

投影片 12 重點介紹了我們的信用品質表現。資產品質指標的趨勢符合預期，關鍵指標持續正常化至疫情前的水準。截至12月31日，我們的不良資產與貸款及其他房地產的比率為0.40%，而9月30日為0.35%，一年前為0.26%。第四季淨沖銷率為 0.49%，較第三季 0.44% 的水準上升 5 個基點，高於調整後的 2022 年第四季 0.23% 的水準。

Turning to Slide 13. We increased our common equity Tier 1 ratio to 9.9% as of December 31. The combination of earnings accretion, net of distributions, and balance sheet optimization actions resulted in a 20 basis point increase linked quarter. Balance sheet optimization activities continue to have a low to neutral impact on earnings and provided additional risk transfer benefits.

轉向投影片 13。截至 12 月 31 日，我們將普通股一級資本比率提高至 9.9%。收益成長、分配淨額和資產負債表優化行動相結合，導致季度環比增長 20 個基點。資產負債表優化活動繼續對收益產生低至中性的影響，並提供額外的風險轉移收益。

As we move into 2024, we expect earnings to be the primary driver of capital accretion with limited reliance on balance sheet capital-related actions. As of December 31, 2023, our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio remains above our regulatory capital minimum by 290 basis points.

進入 2024 年，我們預期獲利將成為資本增值的主要驅動力，對資產負債表資本相關行動的依賴有限。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們的普通股一級資本比率仍高於監理資本最低標準 290 個基點。

Let me now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

現在讓我把它交還給安迪做總結發言。

Thanks, John. I'll end my prepared comments on Slide 14. 2023 was a turbulent year for the industry. However, we achieved a great deal, including our successful conversion of Union Bank in late May and the realization of $900 million in run rate cost synergies related to Union Bank by year-end as we had targeted. Additionally, we accomplished our goal of accreting the -- accelerating the accretion of CET1 capital and received full relief from category 2 commitments we made in conjunction with the Union Bank transaction.

謝謝，約翰。我將在幻燈片 14 上結束我準備好的評論。2023 年對該行業來說是動蕩的一年。然而，我們取得了巨大的成就，包括我們在 5 月下旬成功轉換了聯合銀行，以及按照我們的目標，到年底實現了與聯合銀行相關的 9 億美元的營運成本協同效應。此外，我們還實現了加速 CET1 資本增值的目標，並從我們在聯合銀行交易中做出的第 2 類承諾中獲得了全額減免。

Entering 2024, we are positioned to continue to deliver industry-leading returns on tangible common equity, are appropriately reserved for macroeconomic uncertainties and remain confident in our strategy for future growth and expansion. We are seeing positive momentum across our fee-based businesses as we deepen our most profitable client relationships and continue to target flat expense growth in 2024, even as we strategically invest in key areas and further execute on revenue growth opportunities with Union Bank.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續提供業界領先的有形普通股回報，為宏觀經濟的不確定性做好適當準備，並對我們未來的成長和擴張策略保持信心。隨著我們深化最盈利的客戶關係並繼續以 2024 年固定費用增長為目標，我們的收費業務呈現出積極的勢頭，同時我們在關鍵領域進行戰略投資並進一步利用聯合銀行的收入增長機會。

Let me close by thanking our employees for their continued dedication to supporting the needs of our clients, communities and shareholders in what was a meaningful year for the company.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工在對公司有意義的一年中繼續致力於支持客戶、社區和股東的需求。

We'll now open up the call for Q&A.

我們現在將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

I was hoping you could maybe provide a little more context around the NII thoughts for the full year. It sounds like if I did the math correctly, we're expecting somewhere between $16.5 billion and $16.6 billion for the full year. Maybe just some thoughts on how the margin and NII should traject. I would presume maybe a little more downward pressure on NII given day count in the first quarter, but does it trough there and then sort of grow throughout the year? Or would there be other factors that would cause NII maybe to bleed through, say, middle of the year and then start to inflect back up? Or maybe just any thoughts there.

我希望您能提供更多有關全年 NII 想法的背景資訊。聽起來如果我計算正確的話，我們預計全年收入將在 165 億美元到 166 億美元之間。也許只是關於邊際和NII 應如何變化的一些想法。考慮到第一季的天數，我認為 NII 的下行壓力可能會更大一些，但它會在那裡觸底，然後在全年中有所增長嗎？或者是否還有其他因素導致NII可能會在年中出現流失，然後開始回升？或者也許只是那裡的任何想法。

Sure. Just -- maybe to just reiterate what was mentioned. In the first quarter, we'll see net interest income between $4.0 billion and $4.1 billion. As we think about the full year for 2024, it's going to be consistent with our annualized fourth quarter number 2023 level of $4.14 billion and -- to up slightly. And we're using the fourth quarter actuals really because that -- we feel that that's a more appropriate starting point given our balance sheet is now past all the capital actions that took place during the 2023 calendar year.

當然。只是——也許只是重申所提到的內容。第一季度，我們將看到淨利息收入在 40 億美元至 41 億美元之間。當我們考慮 2024 年全年時，它將與我們 2023 年第四季 41.4 億美元的年化水準保持一致，並且略有上升。我們使用第四季度的實際數據確實是因為——我們認為這是一個更合適的起點，因為我們的資產負債表現在已經超過了 2023 日曆年發生的所有資本行動。

And so some of the color around that and some of the drivers related to how we are thinking about that is, we do believe that DDA and low-cost deposit churn into higher-cost deposits are going to abate over time. By the end of this quarter, we'll be 9 months past the last Fed hike, as an example.

因此，圍繞這一點的一些色彩以及與我們如何思考這個問題相關的一些驅動因素是，我們確實相信 DDA 和低成本存款向更高成本存款的流失將隨著時間的推移而減弱。例如，到本季末，距離聯準會上次升息已經過去 9 個月了。

We continue to see loan spreads improve in various categories, led on the commercial side of things. Loan and investment portfolio, asset churn continues to occur. Our loan pipelines have continued to strengthen over this quarter, certainly stronger than we've seen in the past couple of quarters. And we think that loan demand should be improved just given that the Fed is likely going to be in a cutting mode over time. And the counter to that, of course, is that deposit pricing is going to be competitive, especially with QT running in some form in the background.

我們繼續看到各個類別的貸款利差有所改善，其中以商業方面為主導。貸款和投資組合、資產流失持續發生。本季我們的貸款管道持續加強，肯定比過去幾季的情況要強。我們認為，考慮到聯準會隨著時間的推移可能會處於削減模式，貸款需求應該會有所改善。當然，與此相反的是，存款定價將具有競爭力，尤其是在 QT 以某種形式在後台運行的情況下。

So while I'll say that first quarter NII projection is going to be slightly lower than the fourth quarter, these broad factors are really going to be supportive of NII growth as we -- especially as we think about the second half of the year.

因此，雖然我想說第一季的 NII 預測將略低於第四季度，但這些廣泛的因素確實將支持 NII 的成長，特別是當我們考慮今年下半年時。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe just a quick question on capital. Glad to hear that some of those balance sheet optimization efforts are beginning to sunset. Maybe, one, do you have what you all estimate the sort of fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratio to be now? And maybe the balance between just building and potentially returning capital going forward.

好的。完美的。然後也許只是一個關於資本的簡單問題。很高興聽到其中一些資產負債表優化工作開始失效。也許，第一，你們現在的滿載普通股一級資本比率是否符合大家的估計？也許只是建設和未來可能返還資本之間的平衡。

Scott. So I mean, right now, as you know, we're at 9.9% on CET1 with the improvement in rates, the impact of the AOCI on the investment portfolio, securities is about 2.2 percentage points, and so you're at 7.7%.

斯科特.所以我的意思是，現在，如你所知，隨著利率的提高，我們的 CET1 利率為 9.9%，AOCI 對投資組合、證券的影響約為 2.2 個百分點，所以你的利率為 7.7% 。

As we think about it on a fully loaded basis. So if you think about it on a go-forward basis, we're going to create capital in the area of 20 to 25 basis points per quarter. We will have a burn-down on the securities book of about 30% or so relative to where it is by the end of '25, just to give you some context. So all that kind of adds up to building our capital to where we think it needs to be for the appropriate time, given regulation and the timing of that.

當我們在滿載的基礎上考慮它。因此，如果你從未來的角度考慮，我們將每季創造 20 到 25 個基點的資本。到 25 年底，我們將把證券帳簿燒毀約 30% 左右，只是為了給您一些背景資訊。因此，考慮到監管和時機，所有這些加在一起，就可以將我們的資本建立到我們認為適當的時間所需的水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just maybe, John, following up on the NII question. One, sorry if I missed it, what rate cut did -- assumptions did you have in your NII outlook? And then just talk to us about sensitivity. Are 3 cuts worse than 6 cuts? Just how we should -- given market expectations around this probably is going to change week by week, I'm just trying to test the resiliency of your NII outlook if they get more or less rate cuts.

約翰，也許是在跟進 NII 問題。第一，抱歉，如果我錯過了，降息幅度是多少——您對 NII 前景有何假設？然後跟我們談談敏感性。 3次削減比6次削減更糟嗎？考慮到市場對此的預期可能會每週都在變化，我們應該如何做，我只是想測試一下你的 NII 前景的彈性，如果他們或多或少降息的話。

Sure. Absolutely. So in terms of our current projections, we have 4 interest rate cuts by the Fed starting in the second quarter of this year. Now whether or not that's 2 cuts or 6 cuts, it's not going to be a material driver to our outlook. We have worked hard to get our net interest income sensitivity to be more or less in a neutral position. And so we feel like whether the cuts are -- how they are positioned are not going to be a material driver to the change -- of the outlook, excuse me.

當然。絕對地。因此，就我們目前的預測而言，聯準會從今年第二季開始將進行 4 次降息。現在，無論是 2 次削減還是 6 次削減，都不會成為我們前景的實質驅動因素。我們努力使淨利息收入敏感度或多或少處於中性位置。因此，我們覺得，對不起，削減是否——它們的定位方式不會成為改變前景的實質驅動因素。

That's helpful. And I guess just a second question. I'm not sure if you laid out any outlook for fee revenue growth for the year in terms of -- if you can just talk to in terms of what you expect overall in fee revenues. And particularly on payments, if you can call out expectations on what you assume for the year there.

這很有幫助。我想還有第二個問題。我不確定您是否對今年的費用收入成長做出了展望——您是否可以談談您對整體費用收入的預期。尤其是在付款方面，如果你能說出你對當年的假設的期望的話。

Sure. Yes, I'll call out a couple of things on payments and some of the other fee categories. So as we think about payments, certainly, in terms of merchant processing, we've put a lot of investment in there. There's a lot of technology-led advancements that we've made in terms of connections and certainly some MUB synergies. And so we continue to expect high single digits in terms of revenue growth there. The same would be said for corporate payments. We think high single digits, given the amount of T&E growth and client growth and all that sort of thing that we see.

當然。是的，我會指出一些有關付款和其他一些費用類別的事情。因此，當我們考慮付款時，當然，在商家處理方面，我們已經在那裡投入了大量投資。我們在連接方面取得了許多以技術為主導的進步，當然還有一些 MUB 協同效應。因此，我們繼續預計該地區的收入成長將達到高個位數。企業支付也是如此。考慮到差旅費成長和客戶成長以及我們看到的所有此類情況，我們認為這個數字很高。

And then on the card side of things, we've seen a very nice margin expansion. MUB certainly helps, and holiday sales have been -- were certainly helpful this past quarter, but we see that extending, and so we think mid-single digits from that standpoint.

然後在卡片方面，我們看到了非常好的利潤成長。 MUB 肯定會有所幫助，而假日銷售在上個季度也確實有所幫助，但我們看到這種情況正在擴大，因此從這個角度來看，我們認為中等個位數。

I would also reiterate, we've had really very nice growth in the commercial product side. We've had -- particularly in 2023, we would expect high single digits there, given strength we've had in foreign exchange, derivatives, the fixed income, capital markets, loan syndication has all been performing very well for us. Our trust and investment management fee also should experience growth, led by our institutional service businesses and corporate trust and fund services and certainly in wealth management, some of the fees associated with that.

我還要重申，我們在商業產品方面確實取得了非常好的成長。鑑於我們在外匯、衍生性商品、固定收益、資本市場、銀團貸款的實力，我們預計在 2023 年實現較高的個位數成長，尤其是在 2023 年。我們的信託和投資管理費用也應該會經歷成長，這主要是由我們的機構服務業務、企業信託和基金服務以及財富管理以及與之相關的一些費用所帶動的。

The one thing I would point out, though, in terms of service charges. We've exited our ATM cash servicing business, and that was a business we decided to exit just given the high level of capital related to it in terms of intensity and investment. And so that will impact us by about $30 million to $35 million per quarter starting in the first quarter.

不過，我要指出的一件事是服務費。我們已經退出了 ATM 現金服務業務，考慮到與該業務相關的資本強度和投資水平較高，我們決定退出該業務。因此，從第一季開始，這將對我們每季產生約 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Thanks for the color so far on the guidance. I guess similarly, can you walk through your -- within the NII expectations you provided, can you walk through your expectation for loan growth for the year and how you expect that could traject? I know you cited demand weakening.

感謝到目前為止的指導顏色。我想同樣，您能否在您提供的國家資訊基礎設施預期範圍內介紹一下您對今年貸款成長的預期以及您預計其發展軌跡如何？我知道你提到了需求疲軟。

And then the same thing on the deposit front. If you can maybe give us your expectation of how you think growth can look like on an overall basis and maybe how the net interest -- I mean the noninterest-bearing mix could traject from here.

然後在存款方面也是如此。如果您能給我們您對整體成長的預期，以及淨利息的預期—我的意思是，無利息組合可能會從這裡開始發展。

Sure. So a couple of things there. So I'll start on the loan growth side. I do believe our expectation is that we will see growth in the commercial side. Of course, that was a little bit weaker this last quarter as we experienced paydowns, particularly as clients were accessing capital markets and things of that nature. But we've seen really a good pipeline build on that. We expect utilization to pick up and things of that variety. So we feel like that, along with credit cards, will be good sources of growth for us as we think about loan growth going forward.

當然。有幾件事。所以我將從貸款成長方面開始。我確實相信我們的期望是我們將看到商業方面的成長。當然，上個季度的情況有點弱，因為我們經歷了付款，特別是當客戶進入資本市場和類似性質的事情時。但我們確實看到了在此基礎上構建的良好管道。我們預計利用率將會回升以及類似的事情。因此，我們認為，當我們考慮未來的貸款成長時，信用卡與信用卡將成為我們良好的成長來源。

On the deposit side, as a reminder, we'll probably be lower in the first quarter. We seasonally lose deposits just as we kind of go through the year-end process. And just given the mix of our businesses, deposits end up being a little bit lower in the first quarter. But then we see more or less stabilization. But there might be some headwind there, particularly depending on QT and how the Fed draining of liquidity out of the system will impact the numbers there.

在存款方面，提醒一下，第一季我們的存款利率可能會較低。就像我們經歷年終流程一樣，我們會季節性地損失存款。考慮到我們的業務組合，第一季的存款最終會略有下降。但隨後我們看到或多或少的穩定。但那裡可能存在一些阻力，特別是取決於 QT 以及聯準會從系統中排出流動性將如何影響那裡的數字。

And then going into your NIB comment, we've seen, of course, rotation out of NIB into other interest-bearing products. That continues, but starts to wane as we go throughout the year. And again as I mentioned, we're going to be 9 months, by the end of this quarter, past the last Fed hike, and that gives us some signal that, that will begin to abate.

然後，在您對 NIB 的評論中，我們當然看到了從 NIB 轉向其他生息產品的情況。這種情況仍在繼續，但隨著全年的發展而開始減弱。正如我再次提到的，到本季末，距離聯準會上次升息已經過去了 9 個月，這給了我們一些訊號，表明這種情況將開始減弱。

Okay. And then I guess if you could help us just think about how we should think about the magnitude of operating leverage that's reasonable as you look at next year. I know we do have some color on how you're thinking about NII and fees and then put that against your efforts to keep expenses stable. But I guess, could you just maybe frame it, a range of operating leverage that you think is reasonable as we look at next year?

好的。然後我想您是否可以幫助我們考慮我們應該如何考慮明年合理的營運槓桿的大小。我知道我們確實對您如何看待 NII 和費用有一定的了解，然後將其與您保持支出穩定的努力進行比較。但我想，您能否框架我們明年考慮的一系列您認為合理的營運槓桿？

John, this is Andy. So let me start with this, and John can add on. So as I said in my prepared remarks, we're going to benefit from the cost efficiencies of the Union deal to a total of $900 million, and that is fully reflected now and into the run rate starting this quarter. So we're achieving those benefits because of the benefits of technology, investments we've made, digital investments, operational investments, our risk platform. And so that is the benefit of the investments we've made, and we would expect to continue to invest in the business, in those capabilities in payments and technology modernization.

約翰，這是安迪。讓我從這個開始，約翰可以補充。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們將從聯盟協議的成本效率中受益，總額達 9 億美元，這在現在和本季開始的運行率中得到了充分體現。因此，我們之所以能夠實現這些好處，是因為技術、我們所做的投資、數位投資、營運投資和我們的風險平台的好處。這就是我們所做投資的好處，我們希望繼續投資於業務、支付和技術現代化的能力。

So we are also very cognizant in managing expenses very closely. We still have opportunities in terms of efficiencies in personnel, in operations and activities around technology that will allow us to more efficiently deliver the services we have. So I would expect, as we get towards the second half of the year, that when we start to see that margin growth that John talked about as well as the fee normalization, that we would have opportunity for positive operating leverage. And we're going to -- again, that is our long-term objective, as always, and we have levers to pull.

因此，我們在嚴格管理開支方面也非常有意識。我們在人員、營運和技術活動效率方面仍然有機會，這將使我們能夠更有效地提供我們所擁有的服務。因此，我預計，當我們進入下半年時，當我們開始看到約翰談到的利潤成長以及費用正常化時，我們將有機會獲得積極的營運槓桿。我們將再次重申，這是我們的長期目標，一如既往，我們有槓桿可以推動。

Your next question comes from the line of John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自自治研究組織的約翰·麥克唐納 (John McDonald)。

I was wondering if you could give a little color on what you saw this quarter in credit quality on the NPA movement, particularly in commercial. And then also, John, maybe just some thoughts on the potential charge-off trajectory as you see things migrate from NPA into charge-offs this year, what we should be thinking about?

我想知道您是否可以對本季度 NPA 運動的信貸品質（尤其是商業信貸品質）的情況進行一些說明。然後，約翰，也許只是對潛在沖銷軌蹟的一些想法，當你看到今年事情從 NPA 轉向沖銷時，我們應該考慮什麼？

John, this is Terry Dolan. So I'm going to take this question related to credit quality. Your first one was really related to nonperforming assets and some of the things we saw in the fourth quarter. If you end up going across the portfolio, generally pretty stable.

約翰，這是特里·多蘭。所以我將回答這個與信用品質相關的問題。你的第一個確實與不良資產以及我們在第四季度看到的一些事情有關。如果你最終瀏覽了整個投資組合，通常相當穩定。

We did see a couple of idiosyncratic loans that went into nonperforming status. Both of those were kind of Union legacy sort of credits, so continue to kind of work through that. But I would also say that both of those are fairly well collateralized, so we don't necessarily see a lot of charge-off content related to those idiosyncratic credits.

我們確實看到一些特殊貸款進入不良狀態。這兩個都是聯盟遺留的學分，所以繼續努力。但我還要說，這兩者都有相當好的抵押，因此我們不一定會看到很多與這些特殊信用相關的沖銷內容。

When we look at net charge-offs and the trajectory, I would expect that -- or we would expect that it will continue to kind of normalize. Credit card is kind of getting closer to pre-pandemic levels, but that will continue to move up a little bit. Our expectation is that, for full year 2024, we'll probably be in kind of in the mid-50s in terms of the net charge-off rate.

當我們查看淨沖銷和軌跡時，我預計 - 或者我們預計它將繼續正常化。信用卡的消費水平正在接近大流行前的水平，但仍將繼續小幅上升。我們的預期是，到 2024 年全年，我們的淨沖銷率可能會在 50 多歲左右。

Okay. And then, John or Andy, just on the fee revenues. John ticked off on the fee revenues a number of high single-digit kind of potential growers in '24. How do we think about kind of the ability to grow total fee revenues? And what kind of base should we use for that? It looks like maybe the adjusted base for '23 was about $10.8 billion of fee revenues. Is that something you can grow off of that? Just trying to contextualize. Total revenue last year was around $28 billion. How should we think about the ability to grow revenues on fees and maybe total revenues this year?

好的。然後，約翰或安迪，只是關於費用收入。約翰在 24 年列舉了一些高個位數潛在種植者的費用收入。我們如何看待增加總費用收入的能力？我們該使用什麼樣的基礎呢？看來 23 年調整後的費用收入基數約為 108 億美元。這是你可以從中成長的東西嗎？只是試圖結合上下文。去年總收入約 280 億美元。我們該如何考慮今年增加收費收入甚至總收入的能力？

Yes. So I mean, we had -- as you mentioned, some of the fee numbers there. From a core fee perspective, we do expect to grow. I ticked off some of the areas in terms of payments, commercial products, trust and all that sort of thing. Other -- and some of the service charges components there. Of course, in terms of mortgage, that will be probably somewhat on the flat range. And in terms of other, we had a little bit of a high number in terms of the fourth quarter related to tax credit related impact, finance, syndication fees and things like that. So all those things in, we expect kind of that mid-single in terms of the fee components going forward for this year.

是的。所以我的意思是，正如您所提到的，我們有一些費用數字。從核心費用的角度來看，我們確實預期會成長。我勾選了支付、商業產品、信任等方面的一些領域。其他－還有一些服務收費組件。當然，就抵押貸款而言，這可能會在一定程度上處於平穩範圍內。就其他方面而言，第四季與稅收抵免相關的影響、財務、銀團費用等相關的數字有點高。因此，所有這些因素，我們預計今年的費用組成部分將達到中等水平。

Okay. Kind of a mid-single from that $10.8 billion adjusted base.

好的。相當於 108 億美元調整後基礎上的中單曲。

Your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）。

My first question is for you, Andy. Clearly, you went through it in terms of some capital consternation in 2023. And now you're sitting here with 9.9% CET1. No longer have to be a category 2 bank early. And all the color that we're getting from Washington is that Basel III end game will be at least delayed, if not soften significantly.

我的第一個問題是問你的，安迪。顯然，您在 2023 年經歷了一些資本恐慌。現在您坐在這裡，擁有 9.9% 的 CET1。不再需要儘早成為 2 類銀行。我們從華盛頓得到的所有資訊是，巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果即使沒有顯著軟化，至少也將被推遲。

As you think about maybe just one more hurdle ahead over the near term in terms of the DFAST, how are you thinking about where USB's proper CET1 ratio is in terms of the minimum? Looking forward to a future where maybe capital is a little bit tighter, but you're also growing. And do you feel like you're now on offense, and all the sort of the balance sheet management that was designed to optimize capital is fully behind you?

當您考慮近期 DFAST 方面可能還存在一個障礙時，您如何考慮 USB 的適當 CET1 比率的最小值在哪裡？展望未來，也許資金會有點緊張，但你也在成長。您是否覺得自己現在處於進攻狀態，所有旨在優化資本的資產負債表管理都完全支持您？

Yes, Erika. As John mentioned, I think our balance sheet optimization efforts are behind us. Our focus on capital accretion will be from earnings as we go into 2024 and forward. As we talked about, we are at a 9.9% CET1 ratio today. A couple of years ago, our target was between 8.5% and 9%. So we're above that target. But we're also cognizant of the rules that are coming, both from the perspective of Basel III end game, which is still uncertain, as you talked about, as well as CCAR and how that will evolve over time.

是的，艾莉卡。正如約翰所提到的，我認為我們的資產負債表優化工作已經過去了。進入 2024 年及以後，我們對資本增值的關注將來自於獲利。正如我們所討論的，我們今天的 CET1 比率為 9.9%。幾年前，我們的目標是 8.5% 到 9% 之間。所以我們已經超過這個目標了。但我們也認識到即將到來的規則，無論是從《巴塞爾協議III》最終遊戲的角度來看，正如您所談到的，這仍然是不確定的，還有CCAR 以及它將如何隨著時間的推移而演變。

So we will continue to accrete the 20% to 25%. We'll continue to burn down the AOCI. When we get clarity on the capital rules, both Basel III and CCAR, we'll then determine what the proper capital target will be. My expectation is we'll be above the 9% that we were a few years ago. But we'll define that, refine that, and then we'll get into what the math is around buybacks at that time.

所以我們將繼續增加20%到25%。我們將繼續燒毀 AOCI。當我們明確資本規則（巴塞爾協議 III 和 CCAR）時，我們將確定適當的資本目標。我的預期是我們將高於幾年前的 9%。但我們將對其進行定義、完善，然後我們將了解當時回購的數學原理。

Got it. And one follow-up question for you, John. Thank you for giving us some of the components of the NII. I'm just wondering, as you mentioned QT, are you generally expecting deposits to be down, total deposits to be down even if DDA mix shift abates? And also, how quickly do you think the deposit betas on the way down can react to each Fed rate cut?

知道了。還有一個後續問題要問你，約翰。感謝您向我們提供 NII 的一些組成部分。我只是想知道，正如您提到的 QT，您是否普遍預期存款會下降，即使 DDA 混合轉移減弱，總存款也會下降？另外，您認為存款貝塔值下降對聯準會每次降息的反應速度有多快？

Sure. So the first part of your question in terms of QT. We do anticipate QT to be throughout the year. And so that's going to, on whole, put pressure on deposits throughout the year in terms of balances. And so we don't expect a lot of growth overall in deposits, but we'll -- we have ways to manage through that.

當然。你的問題的第一部分是關於 QT 的。我們確實預計 QT 會持續全年。因此，總體而言，這將給全年的存款餘額帶來壓力。因此，我們預計存款整體不會大幅成長，但我們有辦法解決這個問題。

Of course, they're talking through various ways to change the QT, but that just remains to be seen. In terms of deposits performance on the way down, I would anticipate commercial and wholesale type balances will go down just as fast as they would come up. On the retail side, it's going to be more of an arc. It'll take some time for that to turn. But those are our expectations.

當然，他們正在討論透過各種方法來改變 QT，但這還有待觀察。就存款表現的下降而言，我預計商業和批發類型餘額的下降速度將與上升速度一樣快。在零售方面，它將更像是一條弧線。這需要一些時間才能扭轉。但這是我們的期望。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

So I wasn't clear. Are you guiding for flat, positive or negative operating leverage or none of the above for 2024? And more generally, I mean, the real question is, when do you get back to your historical efficiency ratio? I think you talked about this at a presentation in December.

所以我並不清楚。您對 2024 年的指引是持平、正值還是負值營運槓桿，還是以上都不是？更一般地說，我的意思是，真正的問題是，你什麼時候才能恢復到歷史效率比率？我想你在 12 月的演講中談到過這個問題。

I mean, 61% core efficiency in the fourth quarter isn't exactly like legacy U.S. Bancorp, and that's up 300 basis points year-over-year. And earlier last decade, you were 55%. Going back further, you were in the low 50s. Is that just a aspirational target now? Or is that a real target over the next 2 years or so?

我的意思是，第四季 61% 的核心效率與傳統的 U.S. Bancorp 並不完全一樣，而且比去年同期成長了 300 個基點。上個十年早些時候，這個比例是 55%。再往前追溯，當時你還處於 50 歲以下。現在這只是一個理想的目標嗎？或者說這是未來兩年左右的真正目標嗎？

And along those lines, I guess, you have all the savings you're going to get from Union Bank. So where does the risk come from here?

沿著這些思路，我想，你已經擁有了從聯合銀行獲得的所有儲蓄。那麼風險從何而來呢？

Yes, Mike, it's probably more likely a positive operating leverage in the second half of '24 versus the first half given some of the margin pressures that we talked about. That is still our objective. My expectation is, once we get more to our normalized revenue level, that we will continue to manage expenses below revenue growth and continue to take down that efficiency ratios into the 50s. That's the way we're planning.

是的，麥克，考慮到我們談到的一些利潤壓力，24 年下半年與上半年相比，更有可能出現積極的營運槓桿。這仍然是我們的目標。我的期望是，一旦我們達到正常化的收入水平，我們將繼續將支出控制在收入成長以下，並繼續將效率比率降低到 50 多歲。這就是我們計劃的方式。

When you say into the 50s, I mean, is it something -- can you get back to 55%? Is that in your planning horizon, even going out a few more years?

當你說進入 50 年代時，我的意思是，你能回到 55% 嗎？這是否在你的計劃範圍之內，甚至是再出去幾年？

And it looks like the payments business is recatching its stride here. And along those lines, I didn't see the slide anymore on the payments business combined with small business banking. You're going to grow small business relationship like 15% to 20% and the revenues by 25% to 30%. I don't see any slide for that.

看來支付業務正在重新崛起。沿著這些思路，我沒有看到支付業務與小型企業銀行業務相結合的下滑。您將使小型業務關係成長 15% 至 20%，營收成長 25% 至 30%。我沒有看到任何幻燈片。

And I know you got -- look, you got Union Bank deal, you had the issues of last March and April. And it's okay, your capital is back, the deal is done, and now we're back to kind of U.S. Bancorp business as usual. So I'm just trying to look for some color on that, if you're going to become the Square of banking or if that's still a goal, and how those revenues might help you improve that efficiency.

我知道你——看，你得到了聯合銀行的交易，你也遇到了去年三月和四月的問題。沒關係，你的資金回來了，交易完成了，現在我們又回到了美國合眾銀行的正常業務。因此，我只是想尋找一些線索，看看你是否要成為銀行業的廣場，或者這仍然是一個目標，以及這些收入如何幫助你提高效率。

Sure, Mike. And it is still a goal. We do think this combination of payments and business banking and providing that comprehensive product set and capabilities to help people run their business is a key strategic priority. It continues to be.

當然，麥克。這仍然是一個目標。我們確實認為，支付和商業銀行業務的結合以及提供全面的產品集和功能來幫助人們經營業務是一個關鍵的策略重點。情況仍然如此。

And I think the fee categories that John mentioned are also a key driver of revenue, including payments, commercial products, trust and investment. And those are all areas that we expect continued growth on.

我認為約翰提到的費用類別也是收入的關鍵驅動因素，包括支付、商業產品、信託和投資。這些都是我們預期持續成長的領域。

The immediate pressure on net interest income is what's causing us not to get positive operating leverage in the short term. But it is something that I believe, and as John mentioned, will abate and start to grow into the second half of 2024. And so I think we're going to get to the positive operating leverage. We are planning on it. And we will continue to drive that efficiency ratio down certainly into the 50 -- high 50s at the beginning and continue to deliver positive operating leverage to get it even lower. That's our objective.

淨利息收入面臨的直接壓力是導致我們短期內無法取得正營業槓桿的原因。但我相信，正如約翰所提到的，這種情況將會減弱，並開始在 2024 年下半年成長。所以我認為我們將獲得積極的營運槓桿。我們正在計劃之中。我們將繼續將效率比降低到 50 左右——一開始就達到 50 左右，並繼續提供積極的營運槓桿，使其更低。這就是我們的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Just to clarify, the flat expense guidance for '24 is also the adjusted level of '23 of 17.0?

需要澄清的是，'24 的固定費用指導也是 '23 的 17.0 的調整等級？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay. And I assume that includes any expense benefit from the exit of the ATM cash business that you referenced earlier?

好的。我認為這包括您之前提到的 ATM 現金業務退出帶來的任何費用收益？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And then just stepping back, like any other kind of small businesses or segments that you're kind of reevaluating for? Not so much kind of the regulatory proposals, which we'll see how they may finalize, but just other areas that you're stepping back. And whether it's in mortgage, given the smaller market there, or other parts of the business portfolio that you're looking either to exit or to potentially lean into that's a bit different than you were thinking, say, 6 months ago.

好的。然後退後一步，就像您正在重新評估的任何其他類型的小型企業或細分市場一樣？與其說是監管提案，我們將看看它們如何最終確定，而只是您要退出的其他領域。考慮到那裡的市場較小，無論是抵押貸款，還是您希望退出或可能轉向的業務組合的其他部分，這都與您（例如 6 個月前）的想法有些不同。

Well, I can start and Andy can chime in. I think we commented on the ATM business. I mean, you're constantly evaluating certain things, particularly in the light of regulatory change. Clearly, a lot of comment letters have been submitted in terms of the Basel III end game.

好吧，我可以開始，安迪可以插話。我想我們評論了 ATM 業務。我的意思是，你不斷地評估某些事情，特別是考慮到監管變化。顯然，已經收到了大量關於巴塞爾協議III最終遊戲的評論信。

At the end of the day, it's not going to materially drive, whether we exit businesses or enter new businesses, that sort of thing. It's just going to be a combination of a continual investment, as Andy mentioned, in terms of what we need to do toward achieving positive operating leverage and managing around regulatory actions. Those are some of the comments I'd throw out there.

歸根結底，無論我們退出業務還是進入新業務之類的事情，都不會產生實質的推動作用。正如安迪所提到的，就我們需要採取哪些措施來實現積極的營運槓桿和圍繞監管行動進行管理而言，這將是持續投資的結合。這些是我要發表的一些評論。

Yes. I think I agree, John. And the only thing I'd add is that the environment and the competitive dynamic is something that causes us to be more aggressive or less aggressive in certain categories. And maybe the example I'll give you is auto lending, which is -- for us is not growing right now. And that's because of the spreads and the returns are just not at our levels that we want to put on the books. So those are areas that we're going to not get out of or close down, but just not emphasize in terms of growth at the levels of returns that we're seeing right now.

是的。我想我同意，約翰。我唯一要補充的是，環境和競爭動態導致我們在某些​​類別中更具侵略性或更少侵略性。也許我會給你舉的例子是汽車貸款，對我們來說，現在並沒有成長。這是因為利差和回報並未達到我們希望記入帳簿的水平。因此，這些領域我們不會退出或關閉，但只是不會強調我們現在看到的回報水準的成長。

Okay. And then specifically in credit card, we're obviously seeing a normalization of losses with you guys and throughout the industry, and also very strong growth. So if we adjust losses kind of on a lag basis, they are above a few years ago. At what point do you tighten up credit card and say we should slow growth at this point in the cycle? Or do you think there's still quite a bit of runway of, call it, good growth and healthy growth?

好的。特別是在信用卡領域，我們顯然看到你們和整個產業的損失正在正常化，而且成長也非常強勁。因此，如果我們在滯後的基礎上調整損失，它們會高於幾年前。您在什麼時候收緊信用卡並說我們應該在周期的此時點放慢增長？還是你認為還有相當長的路要走，稱之為良好的成長和健康的成長？

Yes. Well, I mean, it is an area, Matt, that we think that there continues to be a nice growth in that particular space. It is an area, though, that certainly as we have looked at the economic uncertainties and those all sorts of things, the pressure on consumers, especially given the inflationary sort of pressure, we -- on the margin around the edges, we do make adjustments to underwriting and tighten that up where we need to.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，馬特，我們認為這個特定領域將繼續出現良好的成長。不過，在這個領域，當我們考慮到經濟的不確定性和各種各樣的事情以及消費者面臨的壓力時，特別是考慮到通貨膨脹的壓力，我們確實在邊緣地帶做出了調整承保並在需要時加強承保。

But when you end up kind of thinking about the overall credit performance of credit card business, we still think it's a very nice business. We focus on prime, super prime sort of customers. And even through this cycle, I think it's going to perform very well.

但當你最終考慮信用卡業務的整體信用表現時，我們仍然認為這是一項非常好的業務。我們專注於優質、超優質客戶。即使經歷了這個週期，我認為它也會表現得很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Gerard Cassidy。

John, you touched on, in answering your question, about commercial loan growth, that some of your customers were accessing in capital markets and things of that nature. Can you guys share with us, we read a lot and see a lot about the private credit markets have really become quite active and aggressive in making loans to corporate and commercial customers. Are you guys seeing that competition, number one? And also, is it any different than past years? Or has it intensified?

約翰，您在回答問題時談到了商業貸款成長，您的一些客戶正在資本市場和類似性質的事物中獲得貸款。你們能否與我們分享一下，我們讀了很多資料，看到很多關於私人信貸市場在向企業和商業客戶提供貸款方面確實變得非常活躍和積極。你們看到第一名的比賽了嗎？還有，今年和往年有什麼不同嗎？或者說已經變本加厲了？

And then simultaneously, are any of these private, Apollo, Blackstone, et cetera, are these customers of yours? And if they are, how do you balance the competition versus handling their needs?

然後同時，這些私人公司、阿波羅公司、黑石公司等等，都是你的客戶嗎？如果是的話，您如何平衡競爭與滿足他們的需求？

Sure. This is John, Gerard. In terms of on the commercial side, when I commented that going to the capital markets, it's more or less the public market, so taking bond issuance in the public investment-grade market. .

當然。這是約翰，傑拉德。商業方面，我剛剛講到資本市場，或多或少都是公開市場，所以就拿公開投資等級市場的債券發行來說。 。

We tend not to see them or compete on the private credit side of things. It's just not a structure or type of loan type in terms of our client base that we tend to run into. So it's more or less -- I can't say it's increased or decreased versus because we just don't see those names. We compete in the commercial space with our peer banks more or less in that particular venue.

我們往往不會看到它們，也不會在私人信貸方面進行競爭。就我們的客戶群而言，這並不是我們經常遇到的一種結構或貸款類型。所以它或多或少——我不能說它增加或減少了，因為我們只是看不到這些名字。我們在商業領域與同業銀行或多或少在特定場所競爭。

In terms of -- you mentioned in terms of client interaction, we have great relationships with a number of different names in terms of investment services, capital markets activities, other sorts of categories. So we do have some very nice relationships with those institutions.

就您提到的客戶互動而言，我們在投資服務、資本市場活動和其他類別方面與許多不同的公司建立了良好的關係。所以我們確實與這些機構有一些非常好的關係。

Yes. Our corporate trust and global fund services, Gerard, as John mentioned, businesses, they support a number of large private credit funds in the industry and -- where they are customers and clients of ours that we continue to serve.

是的。我們的企業信託和全球基金服務，傑拉德，正如約翰所提到的，企業，他們支持行業內的許多大型私人信貸基金，並且他們是我們繼續服務的客戶和客戶。

I think the last thing I would just add is that, depending upon where the capital rules end up and what sort of -- where the emphasis is or isn't, you could see more or less moving into the private capital sort of markets. They tend to have more flexibility in terms of structure. They take on more risk, all those sorts of things. Again, may not be where we compete. But certainly, from an industry standpoint, private credit continues to be an area of focus.

我想我要補充的最後一件事是，根據資本規則的最終結果以及重點是什麼——你可能會看到或多或少進入私人資本市場。它們在結構方面往往具有更大的靈活性。他們承擔更多的風險，諸如此類的事情。再說一次，可能不是我們競爭的地方。但可以肯定的是，從行業的角度來看，私人信貸仍然是一個焦點領域。

Just if we step back for a moment and look at beyond Basel III end game, maybe we do get the final proposal in the middle of this year or later this year. We get through the next DFAST. U.S. Bancorp has always had a hallmark of having one of the highest ROTCEs amongst the regional banks. Obviously, you're probably going to maintain that.

如果我們退後一步，看看巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果，也許我們確實會在今年年中或今年晚些時候得到最終提案。我們度過了下一個 DFAST。美國合眾銀行一直是區域銀行中擁有最高 ROTCE 的標誌之一。顯然，您可能會維持這一點。

But you also were very disciplined in giving back the excess capital every year to shareholders in buybacks and dividends. Generally, if I recall correctly, around 75% to 80% of total earnings in a combination of both. Andy, do you see that coming on the horizon? Maybe 2025, once we get all the rules, that we know where your CET1 ratio needs to be, what's your outlook there?

但你們每年也非常嚴格地透過回購和股利的形式將多餘的資本返還給股東。一般來說，如果我沒記錯的話，兩者的組合大約佔總收入的 75% 到 80%。安迪，你認為這即將到來嗎？也許到 2025 年，一旦我們制定了所有規則，我們就知道您的 CET1 比率需要達到多少，您的前景如何？

Yes, Gerard, we do achieve a high return on tangible common. I mentioned 19% to 20% fourth quarter, first -- full year '24. And as we think about going forward, I would expect us to continue to lead the pack in terms of that return, which is key to generating capital, key to returning capital.

是的，傑拉德，我們確實在有形共同點上獲得了高回報。我提到了 24 年第四季（第一季）的 19% 到 20%。當我們考慮未來時，我希望我們在回報方面繼續領先，這是產生資本的關鍵，也是回報資本的關鍵。

And again, once we get clarity on the rules, as I mentioned earlier, in both the Basel III end game as well as the CCAR process, and determine our target capital levels, we will return the difference either through dividends or buybacks, as been our history.

再次強調，正如我之前提到的，一旦我們明確了巴塞爾協議III 最終遊戲和CCAR 流程中的規則，並確定了我們的目標資本水平，我們將通過股息或回購來返還差額，就像以前那樣我們的歷史。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自肯·烏斯丁 (Ken Usdin) 與傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的對話。

A follow-up on the deposit side. You mentioned in your prepared remarks about starting to moderate pricing a little bit, and you also talked about roll-off of higher-cost deposits. Just wondering if you can amplify both of those comments. So what types of products or tweaks are you already being able to make on the deposit pricing front? And then where did those higher-cost deposits flow out of from a business perspective?

存款方面的後續行動。您在準備好的發言中提到要開始稍微調整定價，也談到了高成本存款的滾動。只是想知道您是否可以放大這兩則評論。那麼，您已經能夠在存款定價方面做出哪些類型的產品或調整？那麼從商業角度來看，這些成本較高的存款又從哪裡流出呢？

Sure. Thanks, Ken. Mike, the comment was really around in terms of the fourth quarter in just what we saw. Maybe just stepping back a bit. In the third quarter, we grew deposits quite a bit. And part of that was we were just getting through the Union Bank acquisition. We wanted to make sure we were maintaining strong relationships with those clients, and really all clients, as we're going through those times.

當然。謝謝，肯。麥克，正如我們所看到的，這個評論確實是在第四季度發生的。也許只是退一步。第三季度，我們的存款成長了不少。其中一部分原因是我們剛完成對聯合銀行的收購。我們希望確保我們與這些客戶以及所有客戶保持牢固的關係，因為我們正在經歷那些時期。

In the fourth quarter, given where loan demand went and where we had a little bit of excess deposits, so we've made decisions really just tactically to go away from non-deposit -- non-relationship or less relationship-based, and specifically on time deposits declining and things of that nature.

在第四季度，考慮到貸款需求的走向以及我們有一點超額存款，因此我們實際上只是在戰術上做出了決定，以擺脫非存款——非關係或較少基於關係的，特別是關於定期存款下降和類似性質的事情。

So I think that's just going to be the ebb and flow of things of just how we manage it going forward, depending on loan growth, depending on our profile and depending on the relationship. So that's really what that comment was intended for.

因此，我認為這將是我們未來如何管理它的潮起潮落，這取決於貸款成長、取決於我們的概況以及取決於關係。這就是該評論的真正目的。

And importantly, John, on our core consumer deposits, we are continuing to see growth there, as you mentioned, as we had in the slide.

重要的是，約翰，就我們的核心消費者存款而言，正如您所提到的那樣，我們將繼續看到成長，正如我們在幻燈片中所看到的那樣。

Yes. We continue to expect core deposit growth in the consumer side. And that has been something we've been -- the team has been very focused on, and we feel we've had great success there.

是的。我們繼續預期消費方面的核心存款將會成長。這就是我們一直在做的事情——團隊一直非常關注，我們覺得我們在那裡取得了巨大的成功。

Got it. And as a follow-up to the UB point, is everything from UB now fully baked, whether it's the cost actions and structure? And also that's kind of making sure you're buttoned up as a starting point, have that base of loans and deposits gotten to a steady state as well?

知道了。作為 UB 點的後續，UB 的所有內容現在都已經完全成熟了嗎，無論是成本行動還是結構？這也是確保你作為一個起點，貸款和存款的基礎是否也達到穩定狀態？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So we just move forward with everything and listen to the guide comments that you gave earlier.

好的。因此，我們只是繼續推進一切，並聽取您之前給予的指導意見。

Exactly. It's all in the core now, yes.

確切地。現在一切都在核心了，是的。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Saul Martinez with HSBC.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯（Saul Martinez）。

Maybe on the payment side, if you just add a little bit more detail about how you're feeling about your payment strategy, how you're doing and how much -- how big the upside opportunity is there. Obviously, you're growing nicely on the issuing side, the merchant acquiring side, sort of mid-single-digit growth in revenues and volumes. I think you said high single digit next year.

也許在支付方面，如果你只是添加更多細節，說明你對支付策略的感受、你的表現如何以及有多大的上行機會。顯然，發行方、商家收單方都取得了良好的成長，收入和數量實現了中個位數的成長。我想你說的是明年高個位數。

I mean, as you guys know, the banks have ceded a lot of share to software companies, to integrated service providers. And just how do you feel it's going in terms of integrating your commercial banking and payments offering?

我的意思是，正如你們所知，銀行已經將大量份額讓給了軟體公司、綜合服務提供者。您認為在整合商業銀行和支付服務方面進展如何？

And it does seem like you have a major advantage in terms of having relationships, both on the retail and commercial side. And then, obviously, you kind of have that 2-sided network that a lot of the fintechs want. But obviously, banks have struggled in this area. So just maybe if you could just give us sort of an overview of how you're doing and how you feel the opportunity set is evolving.

在零售和商業方面的關係方面，您似乎確實擁有重大優勢。然後，顯然，你就擁有了許多金融科技公司想要的雙向網路。但顯然，銀行在這領域一直舉步維艱。因此，也許您可以向我們介紹一下您的工作情況以及您對機會集的變化的感受。

Yes, Saul. So first of all, the high single digits on merchant processing is a function of the investments we've made and the initiatives we have underway. And I would highlight 2 things.

是的，索爾。因此，首先，商業處理的高個位數是我們所做的投資和我們正在進行的舉措的結果。我想強調兩件事。

Number one is our tech led initiative, which is now up, over 30% of our activities related to tech-led. So that is integrating our merchant processing capabilities into the software that people use to run their businesses. And number two is this whole integration of banking and payments that we talked about earlier. And the advantage I do believe that we have is that we are not just providing one single service. We're integrating banking services, deposit, lending capabilities, treasury management, together with payments and money movement into one comprehensive offering that helps people, again, run their business, particularly small businesses, and helps them ease into the process of payment activity in a comprehensive way together with the software they're using to run their company.

第一個是我們的技術主導計劃，該計劃現已上升，超過 30% 的活動與技術主導相關。這就是將我們的商業處理能力整合到人們用來經營業務的軟體中。第二點是我們之前討論過的銀行和支付的整體整合。我確實相信我們擁有的優勢是我們不僅僅提供一項服務。我們正在將銀行服務、存款、貸款功能、資金管理以及支付和資金流動整合到一項綜合服務中，再次幫助人們（特別是小型企業）經營業務，並幫助他們輕鬆地進行支付活動流程與他們用來運作公司的軟體結合的全面方式。

So those are the initiatives that we have underway, and that continues to be a huge focus and one that I do think differentiates us a little bit because of the capabilities we have in payments. And that's true of merchant processing, corporate payments as well as retail issuing.

這些就是我們正在進行的舉措，這仍然是一個巨大的焦點，我確實認為，由於我們在支付方面的能力，這些舉措使我們有點與眾不同。對於商業處理、企業支付以及零售發行都是如此。

Okay. Got it. No, that's helpful. Maybe just a follow-up on deposits. You mentioned the migration, you expect the migration out of noninterest-bearing deposits to sort of run its course. Just when and where do you see that? I think noninterest-bearing was about 17.5% of total deposits. How much more room is there?

好的。知道了。不，這很有幫助。也許只是存款的後續行動。您提到了遷移，您預期無利息存款的遷移會順利進行。您何時何地看到了這一點？我認為無利息存款約佔總存款的17.5%。還有多少空間？

And just on deposit cost, I think the cumulative beta, if my calculation's right, is around 49%. How much more room is there for that to increase? Sort of what's embedded in your guidance for NII?

僅就存款成本而言，如果我的計算正確的話，我認為累積貝塔值約為 49%。還有多少上升空間？您的 NII 指南中包含哪些內容？

Sure. So in terms of the NIB, I think we've talked quite a bit about it. I would just -- I mean, we're at a certain percentage that you mentioned, and we're going to be around that area. Certainly could drift a little lower. But we are at a point where, from a core standpoint, particularly on the commercial and small business side, where you're starting to get into places where companies have to run operating accounts. And over time, you're going to have account growth and things of that variety. So I think that will be conducive to supporting NIB going forward. But there will be some leftover churn, as I alluded to earlier in the call.

當然。因此，就 NIB 而言，我認為我們已經討論了很多。我只是——我的意思是，我們達到了你提到的一定比例，而且我們將在這個區域附近。當然可以稍微降低一點。但從核心角度來看，特別是在商業和小型企業方面，我們正處於這樣一個階段：公司必須經營營運帳戶。隨著時間的推移，您的帳戶將會成長以及諸如此類的事情。所以我認為這將有利於支持 NIB 的發展。但正如我在電話會議中早些時候提到的那樣，還會有一些剩餘的流失。

In terms of beta, as you mentioned, 48.5% or so is our beta right now. I think it can creep up as we've kind of talked about, but it's going to depend on when the Fed cuts is going to be, kind of that focus point in terms of how much it will go from here. And so how -- what level is hard to predict, but we -- there will be pressure until the Fed starts cutting.

就 Beta 而言，正如您所提到的，我們現在的 Beta 大約為 48.5% 左右。我認為，正如我們所討論的那樣，它可能會逐漸上升，但這將取決於聯準會何時降息，從現在開始降息的幅度。因此，如何——什麼水平很難預測，但我們——在聯準會開始降息之前將會面臨壓力。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Andersen, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。安徒生先生，我將電話轉回給您。

Thanks, Sarah, and thank you for listening to our earnings call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

謝謝莎拉，也謝謝您收聽我們的財報電話會議。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。