美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 a.m. Central Time.

歡迎來到 U.S. Bancorp 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。在審查結果後，將舉行正式的問答環節。 （操作員說明）從今天中部時間上午 11:00 左右開始，此通話將被錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President & Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將電話會議轉交給 U.S. Bancorp 高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監 George Andersen。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Terry Dolan, our Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer. During the prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家早上好。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere；和我們的副主席兼首席財務官 Terry Dolan。在準備好的發言中，安迪和特里將參考幻燈片演示。可在我們的網站 usbank.com 上獲取演示文稿的副本以及我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表。

I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, in our press release, our Form 10-K and its subsequent reports on file with the SEC. Following their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will take any questions that you have.

我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。可能會實質性改變我們當前前瞻性假設的因素在今天的演示文稿的第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿、我們的 10-K 表格及其提交給美國證券交易委員會的後續報告中有所描述。在他們準備好的發言之後，安迪和特里將回答您提出的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在將把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'll begin on Slide 3.

謝謝，喬治。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。

In the first quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.04, which includes $0.12 per share of charges related to the MUFG Union Bank acquisition. Excluding those notable items, earnings per share was $1.16. We achieved record net revenue of $7.2 billion for the quarter.

第一季度，我們公佈的每股收益為 1.04 美元，其中包括與 MUFG Union Bank 收購相關的每股 0.12 美元費用。不包括那些值得注意的項目，每股收益為 1.16 美元。本季度我們實現了創紀錄的 72 億美元淨收入。

Following our successful close of Union Bank acquisition in December of 2022, first quarter results reflected a full year's benefit of the acquired franchise, continued growth in earning assets, net interest margin expansion and higher noninterest income led by stronger commercial product and mortgage banking fee revenues.

繼我們於 2022 年 12 月成功完成對聯合銀行的收購後，第一季度業績反映了所收購特許經營權的全年收益、盈利資產的持續增長、淨息差擴大以及商業產品和抵押貸款銀行手續費收入增加導致的非利息收入增加.

Slide 4 details our reported and adjusted income statement results as well as the end-of-period and average balances and other performance metrics. On the right, you'll see the credit quality remains strong but is starting to normalize as expected. Our charge-off ratio of 30 basis points as adjusted is well below pre-COVID levels and reflective of our disciplined risk management culture.

幻燈片 4 詳細介紹了我們報告和調整後的損益表結果以及期末和平均餘額以及其他績效指標。在右側，您會看到信用質量仍然強勁，但開始如預期般正常化。我們調整後的 30 個基點的沖銷比率遠低於 COVID 前的水平，反映了我們紀律嚴明的風險管理文化。

The CET1 ratio, our binding regulatory constraint, was 8.5% at the end of the quarter and is consistent with our target capital ratio. We expect to exceed 9.0% later this year as we accrete capital back quickly over the next few quarters and continue to focus on risk-weighted asset optimization initiatives.

CET1 比率是我們具有約束力的監管約束，在本季度末為 8.5%，與我們的目標資本比率一致。我們預計今年晚些時候將超過 9.0%，因為我們將在未來幾個季度迅速增加資本回流，並繼續專注於風險加權資產優化計劃。

Slide 5 provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, our return on average assets was 1.15% and our return on average common equity was 15.7%. Our return on tangible common equity was 24.3% on an adjusted basis.

幻燈片 5 提供了關鍵績效指標。剔除值得注意的項目，我們的平均資產回報率為 1.15%，平均普通股回報率為 15.7%。調整後的有形普通股回報率為 24.3%。

Slide 6 provides both a high-level timeline and general update on our planned conversion of Union Bank. Integration efforts have been progressing well. And we remain on track for a successful main systems conversion over the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. We anticipate a full transition of all accounts by the second half of the year.

幻燈片 6 提供了我們計劃的 Union Bank 轉換的高級時間表和一般更新。整合工作進展順利。在即將到來的陣亡將士紀念日週末，我們仍有望成功完成主系統轉換。我們預計到今年下半年所有賬戶將全面過渡。

Turning to Slide 7. The industry disruption early in March has reinforced the importance of maintaining a well-diversified business with an appropriate risk profile. We maintain a resilient and diversified deposit base. Over half of our deposits are insured and 80% of the uninsured deposits are retail or operational in nature. Our diversified funding sources, ample liquidity levels and strong credit quality, supported by disciplined underwriting standards, are all hallmarks of our approach to risk management.

轉到幻燈片 7。3 月初的行業中斷強化了維持具有適當風險狀況的多元化業務的重要性。我們保持有彈性和多元化的存款基礎。我們一半以上的存款已投保，而 80% 的未投保存款屬於零售或經營性存款。我們多元化的資金來源、充足的流動性水平和強大的信用質量，以及嚴格的承銷標準的支持，都是我們風險管理方法的標誌。

I'll now turn the call over to Terry, who can provide more detail on the balance sheet strength and the first quarter earnings results.

我現在將電話轉給特里，他可以提供有關資產負債表實力和第一季度收益結果的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Andy. Turning to Slide 8. A key strength of the bank is our well-diversified deposit base, which remains a stable source of low-cost funding.

謝謝，安迪。轉到幻燈片 8。該銀行的一個關鍵優勢是我們多元化的存款基礎，它仍然是低成本資金的穩定來源。

As a reminder, following the completion of our acquisition of Union Bank last quarter, our end-of-period deposits totaled $525 billion, including approximately $80 billion of deposits from Union Bank. As we discussed last quarter, $9 billion of Union Bank acquired deposits were transitory in nature with $4 billion returned to MUFG in the fourth quarter and an additional $4.7 billion that moved back to MUFG in the first quarter of this year.

提醒一下，在我們上個季度完成對聯合銀行的收購後，我們的期末存款總額為 5250 億美元，其中包括約 800 億美元的聯合銀行存款。正如我們上個季度討論的那樣，聯合銀行收購的 90 億美元存款本質上是暫時的，第四季度有 40 億美元返還給 MUFG，今年第一季度還有 47 億美元返還給 MUFG。

In addition, $1.1 billion of acquired deposits were included in the branch sale, were related to PurePoint, a broker deposit gathering mechanism that we discontinued. Importantly, prior to the events of March 8, we saw expected deposit outflow largely consistent with seasonal patterns reflective of our business mix, including our large trust business.

此外，分支機構銷售中還包括 11 億美元的收購存款，這些存款與 PurePoint 相關，PurePoint 是我們停止使用的經紀人存款收集機制。重要的是，在 3 月 8 日事件發生之前，我們看到預期的存款流出與反映我們業務組合（包括我們的大型信託業務）的季節性模式基本一致。

From March 8 through the end of the quarter, deposit balances were relatively stable, down only 0.6% as inflows from new customers were slightly offset by the impact of clients diversifying their deposits and seeking yield and money market funds consistent with broader industry trends. During this period, we saw an increase in money market funds of approximately $10 billion within our Wealth Management and Investment Services businesses.

從 3 月 8 日到本季度末，存款餘額相對穩定，僅下降 0.6%，因為新客戶的流入被客戶多元化存款和尋求符合更廣泛行業趨勢的收益和貨幣市場基金的影響略微抵消。在此期間，我們的財富管理和投資服務業務中的貨幣市場基金增加了約 100 億美元。

We expect the competition for deposits to remain high for the industry in 2023. Our cumulative deposit beta through the first quarter was approximately 34%. And we expect that to increase to about 40% by the end of this rate cycle, generally in line with our previous expectations.

我們預計 2023 年該行業對存款的競爭將保持激烈。我們到第一季度的累計存款貝塔係數約為 34%。我們預計到這個利率週期結束時，這一比例將增加到 40% 左右，這與我們之前的預期基本一致。

Slide 9 provides additional detail on the composition of our highly diversified deposit base. As the slide shows, our deposit balances are composed of a broad mix of consumer, corporate and commercial customers that we support with an expansive branch distribution network and mobile capabilities across our national footprint. Our deposit base reflects the wide range of customers and industries that our company serve.

幻燈片 9 提供了有關我們高度多元化的存款基礎構成的更多詳細信息。正如幻燈片所示，我們的存款餘額由廣泛的消費者、企業和商業客戶組成，我們通過遍布全國的廣泛分支分銷網絡和移動功能為這些客戶提供支持。我們的存款基礎反映了我們公司服務的廣泛客戶和行業。

At March 31, our percent of insured deposits to total deposits was 51%. Approximately 80% of our uninsured deposits are composed of operational wholesale trust and retail deposits that are stickier either because they are contractually bound or tied to treasury management services and trust activities provided to corporate and institutional clients. Combined with our consumer-based deposits, the stability of our funding source is sound.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的受保存款佔存款總額的百分比為 51%。我們大約 80% 的無保險存款由經營性批發信託和零售存款組成，這些存款更具粘性，因為它們受合同約束或與提供給企業和機構客戶的資金管理服務和信託活動掛鉤。結合我們的消費存款，我們的資金來源穩定性良好。

Moving to Slide 10. U.S. Bank's total available liquidity as of March 31 was $315 billion, representing 126% of our uninsured deposits. As of March -- as of December 31, our liquidity coverage ratio was 122%. As mentioned, our strong debt ratings reflect our diversified business profile, well-collateralized credit exposure, healthy capital and liquidity profiles and disciplined asset liability management framework. These attributes work in concert with our strong balance sheet optimization and management practices to ensure strength and stability of our balance sheet.

轉到幻燈片 10。截至 3 月 31 日，美國銀行的可用流動資金總額為 3150 億美元，占我們未投保存款的 126%。截至 3 月——截至 12 月 31 日，我們的流動性覆蓋率為 122%。如前所述，我們強大的債務評級反映了我們多元化的業務狀況、良好的抵押信用風險、健康的資本和流動性狀況以及嚴格的資產負債管理框架。這些屬性與我們強大的資產負債表優化和管理實踐協同工作，以確保我們資產負債表的實力和穩定性。

Slide 11 provides details on the composition of our investment securities portfolio. Over the last 5 quarters and well ahead of the most recent banking disruption, we reduced the size of our investment securities portfolio from 30% to 25% of total assets while increasing cash levels. In preparation for and as part of the completion of our acquisition of Union Bank, we repositioned our balance sheet by selling fixed rate loans and investment securities, paid off borrowings and increased cash balances in response to economic uncertainty, industry dynamics, rising interest rates and increased market volatility.

幻燈片 11 詳細介紹了我們投資證券組合的構成。在過去 5 個季度中，在最近的銀行業務中斷之前，我們將投資證券組合的規模從總資產的 30% 減少到 25%，同時增加了現金水平。在準備和完成對聯合銀行的收購時，我們通過出售固定利率貸款和投資證券、償還借款和增加現金餘額來重新定位我們的資產負債表，以應對經濟不確定性、行業動態、利率上升和市場波動加劇。

At March 31, approximately 90% of the securities in our investment portfolio are backed and are sponsored by the U.S. federal government with 55% of securities designated as held-to-maturity and 45% designated as available-for-sale. Further, available-for-sale unrealized losses as a percentage of our investment securities portfolio improved in the first quarter. And total AOCI improved by 11% on a linked-quarter basis.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們投資組合中約 90% 的證券由美國聯邦政府支持和讚助，其中 55% 的證券指定為持有至到期，45% 的證券指定為可供出售。此外，第一季度可供出售的未實現虧損占我們投資證券組合的百分比有所改善。總 AOCI 環比增長 11%。

Turning to Slide 12. As a reminder, following the completion of our acquisition of Union Bank, our CET1 capital ratio declined from 9.7% at the end of the third quarter of 2022 to 8.4% as of December 31, which reflected the impacts of balance sheet optimization and purchase accounting adjustments that will accrete back into capital over the next few years. Strategically, we continue to be encouraged about the financial merits of this deal and the synergistic benefits we expect to realize as a combined institution.

轉到幻燈片 12。提醒一下，在我們完成對聯合銀行的收購後，我們的 CET1 資本比率從 2022 年第三季度末的 9.7% 下降到截至 12 月 31 日的 8.4%，這反映了余額的影響表優化和採購會計調整將在未來幾年內重新投入資本。從戰略上講，我們繼續對這筆交易的財務優勢以及我們希望作為一家合併機構實現的協同效益感到鼓舞。

As Andy mentioned earlier, our CET1 capital ratio at March 31 was 8.5%. The 10 basis point increase from year-end reflected 20 basis points of capital accretion, offset by the transitional impact of CECL of 10 basis points. As of March 31, we expect to accrete approximately 20 to 25 basis points of capital per quarter as we complete the Union Bank integration and realize cost synergies. Importantly, this does not include the impacts of planned RWA optimization initiatives mentioned earlier.

正如 Andy 之前提到的，我們在 3 月 31 日的 CET1 資本比率為 8.5%。與年底相比增加 10 個基點反映了 20 個基點的資本增值，被 CECL 的 10 個基點的過渡影響所抵消。截至 3 月 31 日，隨著我們完成聯合銀行整合併實現成本協同效應，我們預計每季度資本增加約 20 至 25 個基點。重要的是，這不包括前面提到的計劃中的 RWA 優化計劃的影響。

Turning to Slide 13. Total end-of-period loans were $388 billion, which was flat on a linked-quarter basis and up 21.6% year-over-year. Commercial real estate loans represent approximately 14% of our total loan portfolio with CRE office exposure representing approximately 2% of total loans and only 1% of total commitments. Leverage lending balances are not a significant component of our loan portfolio.

轉到幻燈片 13。期末貸款總額為 3880 億美元，環比持平，同比增長 21.6%。商業房地產貸款約占我們總貸款組合的 14%，其中 CRE 辦公室敞口約佔總貸款的 2%，僅佔總承諾的 1%。槓桿貸款餘額不是我們貸款組合的重要組成部分。

Slide 14 shows credit quality trends, which continue to be strong, but as expected, are started -- are starting to normalize across the portfolio. The ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.3% at March 31 compared with 0.26% at December 31 and 0.25% a year ago. Our first quarter net charge-offs of 0.30% as adjusted increased 7 basis points versus the fourth quarter level of 0.23% as adjusted and was higher when compared to the first quarter of 2022, which was a level of 0.21%.

幻燈片 14 顯示信貸質量趨勢繼續強勁，但正如預期的那樣，開始在整個投資組合中開始正常化。截至 3 月 31 日，不良資產與貸款和其他房地產的比率為 0.3%，而 12 月 31 日為 0.26%，一年前為 0.25%。與調整後的第四季度 0.23% 水平相比，我們第一季度調整後的 0.30% 淨註銷增加了 7 個基點，並且高於 2022 年第一季度 0.21% 的水平。

Our allowance for credit losses as of March 31 totaled $7.5 billion or 1.94% of period-end loans. As the chart on the upper right side of this slide demonstrates, our credit performance through the cycle serves as a key differentiator for the bank.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總計 75 億美元，佔期末貸款的 1.94%。正如本幻燈片右上角的圖表所示，我們在整個週期中的信貸表現是銀行的關鍵差異化因素。

Slide 15 provides a detailed earnings summary for the quarter. In the first quarter, we earned $1.16 per diluted share, excluding $0.12 of notable items related to the recent acquisition of Union Bank.

幻燈片 15 提供了本季度的詳細收益摘要。第一季度，我們的攤薄後每股收益為 1.16 美元，不包括與最近收購聯合銀行相關的重要項目 0.12 美元。

Slide 16 highlights revenue trends for the quarter. Net revenue totaled $7.2 billion in the first quarter, which included a full quarter of revenue contribution from Union Bank of $832 million, primarily representing net interest income.

幻燈片 16 重點介紹了本季度的收入趨勢。第一季度淨收入總計 72 億美元，其中包括聯合銀行整個季度的收入貢獻 8.32 億美元，主要是淨利息收入。

Net interest income grew 7.9% on a linked-quarter basis and 45.9% year-over-year, driven by earning asset growth and continued net interest margin expansion, which benefited from rising interest rates. Noninterest income as adjusted increased 2.7% compared to the fourth quarter, driven by higher commercial product revenue, mortgage banking revenue and trust and investment management fees, partially offset by losses of $32 million from securities sales.

淨利息收入環比增長 7.9%，同比增長 45.9%，受盈利資產增長和淨息差持續擴張的推動，這得益於利率上升。調整後的非利息收入較第四季度增長 2.7%，這是受商業產品收入、抵押銀行收入以及信託和投資管理費增加的推動，部分被證券銷售損失 3200 萬美元所抵消。

Turning to Slide 17. Adjusted noninterest expense for the company totaled $4.3 billion in the first quarter, including $546 million from Union Bank. Noninterest expense as adjusted increased 9.1% on a linked-quarter basis, largely driven by the impact of 2 additional months of Union Bank's operating expenses, core deposit intangible amortization and higher compensation and other noninterest expenses.

轉到幻燈片 17。第一季度公司調整後的非利息支出總計 43 億美元，其中包括聯合銀行的 5.46 億美元。調整後的非利息費用環比增長 9.1%，這主要是受 Union Bank 運營費用增加 2 個月、核心存款無形攤銷以及更高的薪酬和其他非利息費用的影響。

I will now provide second quarter and updated full year 2023 forward-looking guidance on Slide 18. Starting with the second quarter of 2023 guidance, we expect average earning assets of between $600 billion and $605 billion in the second quarter and a net interest margin of approximately 3%. Total revenue as adjusted is estimated to be in the range of $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion, including approximately $85 million of purchase accounting accretion.

我現在將在幻燈片 18 上提供第二季度和更新的 2023 年全年前瞻性指導。從 2023 年第二季度的指導開始，我們預計第二季度的平均收益資產在 6000 億美元至 6050 億美元之間，淨息差為約 3%。調整後的總收入估計在 71 億美元至 73 億美元之間，其中包括約 8500 萬美元的採購會計增值。

Total noninterest expense as adjusted is expected to be in the range of $4.3 billion to $4.4 billion, inclusive of approximately $120 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to Union Bank. Our tax rate is expected to be approximately 23% on a taxable-equivalent basis. To date, we have incurred $573 million in merger and integration costs and anticipated charges of between -- and anticipate charges of between $250 million and $300 million for the second quarter. We continue to estimate total merger and integration costs of approximately $1.4 billion, consistent with earlier guidance.

調整後的非利息支出總額預計在 43 億美元至 44 億美元之間，其中包括約 1.2 億美元與聯合銀行相關的核心存款無形攤銷。按應稅等值計算，我們的稅率預計約為 23%。迄今為止，我們已經產生了 5.73 億美元的合併和整合成本以及介於兩者之間的預期費用——預計第二季度的費用在 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元之間。我們繼續估計合併和整合總成本約為 14 億美元，與之前的指導一致。

I will now provide updated guidance for the full year. For 2023, average earning assets are now expected to be in the range of $600 billion to $610 billion. We expect the net interest margin to be between 3.0% to 3.05% for the full year. Total revenue as adjusted is now expected to be in the range of $28.5 million to $30.5 billion, inclusive of approximately $350 million of full year purchase accounting accretion.

我現在將提供全年的最新指導。到 2023 年，平均收入資產現在預計將在 6000 億美元至 6100 億美元之間。我們預計全年淨息差在 3.0%至 3.05%之間。調整後的總收入預計在 2850 萬美元至 305 億美元之間，其中包括約 3.5 億美元的全年採購會計增長。

Total noninterest expense as adjusted for the year is expected to be in the range of $17.0 billion to $17.5 billion, inclusive of approximately $500 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to Union Bank. Our estimated full year income tax rate on a taxable-equivalent basis is now expected to be approximately 23.0%. We continue to expect to have $900 million to $1 billion of merger and integration charges in 2023.

今年調整後的非利息支出總額預計在 170 億美元至 175 億美元之間，其中包括約 5 億美元與聯合銀行相關的核心存款無形攤銷。我們按應稅當量計算的全年所得稅率預計約為 23.0%。我們繼續預計 2023 年的合併和整合費用將達到 9 億至 10 億美元。

I will now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

我現在將把它交還給 Andy，請他作結束語。

Thanks, Terry. Events of the past few weeks have certainly raised questions about the overall health of the banking industry and the economic outlook. The business of banking involves taking balanced risks, and these risks must be carefully managed, appropriately regulated and prudently mitigated.

謝謝，特里。過去幾週發生的事件無疑引發了對銀行業整體健康狀況和經濟前景的質疑。銀行業務涉及平衡風險，必須謹慎管理、適當監管和審慎降低這些風險。

At U.S. Bank, we are focused on the strength and stability of our balance sheet. Our investment in risk management practice is guided by our core principle that includes always doing the right thing for the many stakeholders, communities and constituents we serve. A key strength of our institution is our high-quality and diversified business mix and deposit base.

在美國銀行，我們專注於資產負債表的實力和穩定性。我們對風險管理實踐的投資以我們的核心原則為指導，該原則包括始終為我們服務的眾多利益相關者、社區和選民做正確的事。我們機構的一個關鍵優勢是我們高質量和多元化的業務組合和存款基礎。

The combination of a mix of consumer, corporate and commercial customers with significant operational deposits, broad geographic reach and a full breadth and depth of product and service offerings serves as a key differentiator for the bank. Our high debt ratings, resilient liquidity profile, available funding sources and strong earnings capacity enable us to deliver industry-leading regulatory stress test results and contribute to our resiliency during times of uncertainty.

消費者、企業和商業客戶的組合具有大量運營存款、廣泛的地理覆蓋範圍以及全面和深度的產品和服務產品，是該銀行的關鍵差異化因素。我們的高債務評級、有彈性的流動性狀況、可用的資金來源和強大的盈利能力使我們能夠提供行業領先的監管壓力測試結果，並有助於我們在不確定時期的彈性。

As we continue to work to ensure a successful conversion of Union Bank next month, we are already seeing the benefits of increased scale and market share as we bring our enhanced digital capabilities and broad and diverse product set to the Union Bank customer base. Our reputation as a prudent risk manager has been earned through our performance over many cycles. And we have never been more focused on the strength and stability of our balance sheet.

在我們繼續努力確保 Union Bank 下個月成功轉型的同時，我們已經看到了規模和市場份額增加的好處，因為我們將增強的數字能力和廣泛多樣的產品集帶給了 Union Bank 客戶群。我們作為審慎風險管理者的聲譽是通過我們在多個週期中的表現贏得的。我們從未如此關注資產負債表的實力和穩定性。

Let me close by thanking our employees for all that they do on a daily basis for our customers, communities and shareholders. We have shown incredible strength and stability during these challenging times. And I am more confident than ever in our ability to continue to deliver exceptional client service, superior product offerings in a rapidly changing environment.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工每天為我們的客戶、社區和股東所做的一切。在這些充滿挑戰的時期，我們表現出了令人難以置信的力量和穩定性。我比以往任何時候都更有信心，相信我們有能力在瞬息萬變的環境中繼續提供卓越的客戶服務和優質的產品。

We'll now open the call for Q&A.

我們現在將打開問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll go to Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們將去找 Scott Siefers，Piper Sandler。

Lots of noise in the deposit flows in the first quarter. I guess, moving forward, what would your expectations be for total deposit flows or balances and then the mix of noninterest-bearing to total as we sort of get through this cycle?

第一季度的存款流動有很多噪音。我想，展望未來，當我們經歷這個週期時，您對總存款流量或餘額的期望是什麼，然後是無息與總額的混合？

Yes. Our expectation is that if you end up just looking at the industry, there's going to be pressure on deposits and high competition. We think we'll fare quite well with respect to that. To the extent that we see changes in deposits, it will be kind of based upon that competition, so -- but I would say relatively stable.

是的。我們的預期是，如果你最終只關注這個行業，將會面臨存款壓力和激烈競爭。我們認為我們會在這方面做得很好。就我們看到的存款變化而言，這將是基於競爭，所以 - 但我會說相對穩定。

And then coming to your second question, the mix of NIBs as an example in roughly the fourth quarter was about 25%, 26%, in that ballpark. It's 25%. And we think it's kind of hitting that kind of stable level, keeping in mind that we have a lot of operational deposits tied to our -- both our corporate and our corporate trust businesses. And that kind of helps to sustain it. So it's a combination of things, Scott.

然後談到你的第二個問題，以 NIB 為例，大約第四季度的混合比例約為 25%、26%。這是25%。我們認為它達到了那種穩定的水平，請記住我們有很多與我們的公司和公司信託業務相關的運營存款。這有助於維持它。所以這是多種因素的結合，斯科特。

Okay. Perfect. And then was hoping we could talk for a second about just the categorization and when you guys would expect to be a Category II bank. I think there's a lot of chatter going around, especially in light of that report from a couple of days ago. So maybe just in sort of clear terms, when would you expect to be a Category II bank? Will that be due to your asset size or thanks to the Fed's flexibility to designate you as one? And then how would you guys get there by that time?

好的。完美的。然後希望我們能花點時間談談分類以及你們什麼時候期望成為 II 類銀行。我認為周圍有很多閒聊，特別是考慮到幾天前的那份報告。那麼，也許只是用一種明確的術語來說，您希望什麼時候成為 II 類銀行？這是由於您的資產規模還是由於美聯儲靈活地將您指定為其中一員？那麼到那時你們將如何到達那裡？

Yes. Our trajectory with respect to Category II is no earlier than the end of 2024. And that will be -- I think that will be more driven by whether the Fed makes that decision or not rather than asset size. Again, as we kind of manage the company, we're going to be -- continue to be very focused on profitable loan growth and things like that. So we get there when we get there. But that -- our expectation right now is no sooner than the end of 2024.

是的。我們關於第二類的軌跡不早於 2024 年底。我認為這將更多地取決於美聯儲是否做出該決定，而不是資產規模。同樣，在我們管理公司的過程中，我們將繼續非常專注於有利可圖的貸款增長和類似的事情。所以當我們到達那裡時我們就到達那裡。但是，我們現在的預期是不會早於 2024 年底。

Okay. Perfect. And you guys feel like you're prepared to get there by that time basically?

好的。完美的。你們覺得到那個時候你們基本上已經準備好到達那裡了嗎？

Yes. It will be a combination of a couple of things we talked about, the -- just the capital generation from earnings. And then of course, that is helped by the Union Bank transaction. And then we're very focused on capital management. We have to be just -- because of the Category II, we'll be very focused on risk-weighted asset optimization and making sure that we're focused on profitable growth.

是的。這將是我們談到的幾件事的結合，即收益產生的資本。當然，這得益於聯合銀行的交易。然後我們非常專注於資本管理。我們必須——因為第二類，我們將非常專注於風險加權資產優化，並確保我們專注於盈利增長。

Next, we'll go to Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們將與瑞銀一起去 Erika Najarian。

I guess, the question for USB is I don't think your investors doubt the through-the-cycle credit outperformance or even the PPNR strength. It's well noted that the adjustment to your revenue outlook was very minimal relative to peers. I think the big question that investors have is you're starting from 8.5% CET1. You note earnings power and capital -- organic capital generation of 20 to 25 basis points.

我想，USB 的問題是我認為您的投資者不會懷疑整個週期的信貸表現甚至 PPNR 實力。眾所周知，與同行相比，您對收入前景的調整非常小。我認為投資者面臨的最大問題是你從 8.5% CET1 開始。你注意到盈利能力和資本——20 到 25 個基點的有機資本生成。

But as we anticipate Cat II, and you're telling us that the Fed could decide and not your asset size necessarily could decide when that line is, what is the new endpoint of CET1 in your view? Because as we think about going into that new category, I don't think investors think that 8.5% to 9% is the right bogey. And then the sort of the sub-question to that, Andy, is, is your priority getting to a higher capital level faster? And if so, how are you thinking about dividend growth this year?

但是正如我們預期的 Cat II，並且您告訴我們美聯儲可以決定而不是您的資產規模必然可以決定這條線何時出現，您認為 CET1 的新端點是什麼？因為當我們考慮進入這個新類別時，我認為投資者認為 8.5% 到 9% 是不正確的。安迪，然後是那種子問題，你的優先事項是更快地達到更高的資本水平嗎？如果是這樣，您如何看待今年的股息增長？

So Erika, good question. And so I'm just going to go from the beginning. I think that would be helpful. So as you know, we were well above 9% and came down to 8.4% as a result of the Union Bank transaction. The Union Bank transaction is a terrific transaction. We're exceeding our revenue expectations. We are coming under on our expense expectations. The accretion is greater than we expected. So the value of the franchise is positive for sure.

埃里卡，問得好。所以我將從頭開始。我認為這會有所幫助。如您所知，由於聯合銀行交易，我們遠高於 9% 並降至 8.4%。聯合銀行的交易是一筆了不起的交易。我們超出了我們的收入預期。我們的費用預期正在下降。增幅比我們預期的要大。所以特許經營權的價值肯定是積極的。

As we think about the Category II, I have three or four factors I think about. Number one is the earnings accretion that we talked about, which is strong and growing. And we'll become even more accretive as we get through the cost takeout component of the Union Bank integration. Number two is we have a number of initiatives across the board for risk-weighted asset optimization.

當我們考慮第二類時，我考慮了三四個因素。第一是我們談到的收入增長，它強勁且不斷增長。隨著我們通過聯合銀行整合的成本外包部分，我們將變得更加增值。第二，我們在風險加權資產優化方面全面採取了許多舉措。

Those are things like credit transfers, risk transfers, a number of things to optimize the balance sheet that I think we ought to be focused on and are very focused on to your question. And I think with those two things, as I mentioned, we expect to exceed 9% by the end of this year. That, coupled with our AOC burn-down and additional accretion as we go into 2024, makes me comfortable that we are prepared with whatever event occurs as it relates to Category II in the timing, as Terry mentioned, no later -- no earlier than at the end of 2024.

這些是信貸轉移、風險轉移、優化資產負債表的一些事情，我認為我們應該關注並且非常關注你的問題。正如我所提到的，我認為有了這兩件事，我們預計到今年年底將超過 9%。再加上我們進入 2024 年時我們的 AOC 燃盡和額外增加，讓我感到欣慰的是，我們已經準備好應對與時間上的 II 類相關的任何事件，正如 Terry 提到的，不遲於 - 不早於2024年底。

Yes. A couple of things that I would maybe add because that's right-on. Coming back to AOCI, that burn will be kind of a function of a lot of different things. We have been very proactive in terms of repositioning the AFS portfolio, looking at asset sales and securitizations -- or asset sales, security sales, et cetera. Again, to give you some sense, the duration of that investment portfolio -- of the AFS portfolio has gone from a little over 4.5% in the fourth quarter to about 3.8% in -- at the end of the first quarter.

是的。我可能會添加一些內容，因為這是正確的。回到 AOCI，這種燃燒將是許多不同事物的函數。我們在重新定位 AFS 投資組合、研究資產銷售和證券化——或資產銷售、證券銷售等方面一直非常積極主動。同樣，為了給你一些感覺，該投資組合的持續時間——AFS 投資組合的持續時間從第四季度的略高於 4.5% 增加到第一季度末的約 3.8%。

So we're going to continue to shorten the duration. And that's going to help us with respect to managing AOCI. And then in addition to that, we have been essentially reducing the volatility of AOCI to up interest rate environments through hedging activities. So it's a combination of a variety of things that we're going to go through.

所以我們將繼續縮短持續時間。這將有助於我們管理 AOCI。除此之外，我們一直在通過對沖活動從根本上降低 AOCI 的波動性以提高利率環境。所以這是我們將要經歷的各種事情的結合。

And is 9.5%, 10% an appropriate new bogey as we think about the shift change for next year on Cat II?

當我們考慮明年 Cat II 的轉變時，9.5%、10% 是否是一個合適的新忌？

So Erika, as you know, the...

所以 Erika，如你所知，...

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes, the regulators are going through an analysis and a process right now to think about how capital levels ought to be in the industry across the board with a Basel IV endgame and whatever are changes to categorization that occurs. So we are waiting for that, as you are, to understand what the new environment will look like. But the plan that we have in place is assuming what you -- what Terry just discussed.

是的，監管機構現在正在進行分析和流程，以考慮在巴塞爾協議 IV 殘局下整個行業的資本水平應該如何，以及發生的分類變化。所以我們正在等待，就像你一樣，了解新環境會是什麼樣子。但我們制定的計劃是假設你-- 特里剛才討論的內容。

And just if I could sneak in one last one in, one of your peers closest to you in size said the TLAC was pretty much done and dusted. I noticed that you mentioned your superior debt rating several times. Clearly, the debt markets are still a little bit dislocated. But how should we think about the wholesale funding stack from here?

如果我能偷偷溜進最後一個，你的一位與你身材最接近的同行說 TLAC 已經完成並塵埃落定。我注意到你多次提到你的高級債務評級。顯然，債務市場仍然有些混亂。但是我們應該如何從這裡考慮批發資金堆棧？

I noticed on a period-end basis, short-term borrowings went up by $25 billion. Terry, as you potentially anticipate TLAC, how should we think about your senior debt issuance plans or really sort of hold that level of borrowings until there's a little bit more -- less dislocation in the senior debt market?

我注意到在期末基礎上，短期借款增加了 250 億美元。特里，正如您可能預期的 TLAC，我們應該如何考慮您的高級債務發行計劃，或者真正保持這種水平的借款，直到高級債務市場出現更多 - 更少的混亂？

Yes. Again, TLAC is one of those things that we're going to learn more as we kind of go over the course of the next 12 months. I think the real question is not whether or not TLAC will exist. Because I do believe and we're expecting that it will be something that gets put into place. But how does that get calibrated for the regional banks, reflecting the risk profile that we have relative to the G-SIBs?

是的。同樣，TLAC 是我們將在接下來的 12 個月中學習更多的東西之一。我認為真正的問題不是 TLAC 是否存在。因為我確實相信並且我們期待它會落實到位。但是，如何針對區域性銀行進行校準，以反映我們相對於 G-SIBs 的風險狀況？

And there's a wide range of estimates that are out there. When we end up looking at that, maybe one reasonable estimate would be based upon the foreign bank operators and kind of levels of TLAC. If that is the case for us, I think it would be very manageable. It would be within a range that we would be able to manage to. And then that just gives us flexibility with respect to how we utilize that within the bank.

那裡有各種各樣的估計。當我們最終看到這一點時，也許一個合理的估計將基於外國銀行運營商和 TLAC 的水平。如果我們是這種情況，我認為這將是非常易於管理的。這將在我們能夠管理的範圍內。然後，這就給了我們在銀行內部如何利用它的靈活性。

And next, we can go to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們可以與富國銀行證券公司的邁克梅奧會面。

Well, your P/E, [having believed] consensus, is close to 7 and the market is around 20. So your relative P/E is one of the lowest in history. So I would posit that the market is concerned about something other than earnings. So going back, I guess, the simple question for you, Andy, is will U.S. Bancorp need to issue capital? And how confident are you about that? And on the other side, are buybacks potentially an option once you get to 9% CET1?

嗯，你的市盈率，[相信]共識，接近 7 而市場在 20 左右。所以你的相對市盈率是歷史最低之一。所以我認為市場關心的不是收益。所以回到過去，我想，安迪，你的簡單問題是美國合眾銀行需要發行資本嗎？你對此有多大信心？另一方面，一旦 CET1 達到 9%，回購是否可能成為一種選擇？

And the reason I bring that up is you've seen the front page articles and papers. If you're forced to recognize the unrealized securities losses and you do a burn-down and then people come up with all sorts of numbers and -- would you be forced to realize that? We heard Congress talk about these issues. Could you be forced to incorporate that as part of the current stress test? Could the Fed force your hand sooner? Any color you can give? What's your confidence that you might need to issue capital over the next year or so?

我提出這個問題的原因是你已經看過頭版文章和論文。如果你被迫承認未實現的證券損失並且你進行了燃盡，然後人們想出了各種各樣的數字 - 你會被迫意識到這一點嗎？我們聽到國會談論這些問題。你會被迫將其納入當前壓力測試的一部分嗎？美聯儲能早點逼你出手嗎？你可以給任何顏色嗎？您對未來一年左右可能需要發行資本的信心如何？

Thanks, Mike. So as I said, I'm -- that is not part of our thinking as we sit today. I'm confident that our earnings accretion, our RWA optimization, our AOC burn-down will all get us to a point that we will be at the appropriate capital levels. And I can assure you that it's a high-focus area for myself and the entire management team, including Terry. So that is something we're very focused on.

謝謝，邁克。所以正如我所說，我 - 這不是我們今天坐下來思考的一部分。我相信我們的收益增長、我們的 RWA 優化、我們的 AOC 燃盡都會讓我們達到適當的資本水平。我可以向你保證，這是我本人和整個管理團隊（包括特里）高度關注的領域。所以這是我們非常關注的事情。

Now as it relates to buybacks, I will tell you, as we all know, there's a lot of capital changes that are likely to occur from a regulatory standpoint. So we're not going to do anything until we have more clarity around that, which we hope to have in the second half of the year. But the focus on getting to the appropriate capital levels as quickly as possible, accreting capital and building that capital base is priority one.

現在談到回購，我會告訴你，眾所周知，從監管的角度來看，可能會發生很多資本變化。因此，在我們對此有更清晰的認識之前，我們不會做任何事情，我們希望在今年下半年做到這一點。但重點是盡快達到適當的資本水平，增加資本和建立資本基礎是首要任務。

Yes. And Mike, the thing that I would add to that, we're going to learn with respect to exactly how moving to Category II and the inclusion in unrealized losses gets incorporated into the CCAR process. But just as a reminder, we have a pretty significant amount of buffer that already exists just based upon our credit performance and our PPNR performance because of the earnings capacity. We continue to reduce the volatility of AOCI to rising interest rates. We're doing that through pay-fixed hedges and just shortening the duration and things that I talked about earlier.

是的。邁克，我要補充的是，我們將了解如何將轉移到第二類以及如何將未實現損失納入 CCAR 流程。但提醒一下，由於盈利能力，僅根據我們的信用表現和 PPNR 表現，我們已經存在大量緩衝。我們繼續降低 AOCI 對利率上升的波動性。我們正在通過固定薪酬對沖來做到這一點，只是縮短了我之前談到的持續時間和事情。

I think there's very likely that they will incorporate a higher rate environment into the CCAR process. I will tell you that we've done lots of scenarios that look at a stagflation sort of environment. And we actually perform better in that environment because the revenue streams tend to hold up, given our mix of business, et cetera. So we're taking a lot of that into consideration. And like Andy said, we feel pretty confident that we don't have to go through a capital raise.

我認為他們很可能會將更高速率的環境納入 CCAR 流程。我會告訴你，我們已經做了很多研究滯脹環境的情景。我們實際上在那種環境下表現更好，因為考慮到我們的業務組合等，收入流往往會保持穩定。所以我們正在考慮很多。就像安迪說的那樣，我們非常有信心我們不必進行融資。

As part of this year's stress test, would they include the unrealized securities losses since that would incorporate the 9-quarter time horizon or no?

作為今年壓力測試的一部分，它們是否包括未實現的證券損失，因為這將包含 9 個季度的時間範圍？

No. That is not required in the CCAR analysis as a condition of the way the deal was structured.

不需要。CCAR 分析不需要將其作為交易結構方式的條件。

And then last short one, your noninterest-bearing deposits, I know you brought that up before, it certainly went down more than average this quarter. But you're not guiding your margin down too much. You said 3% to 3.05% versus, I guess, 3.1% this quarter. Why wouldn't you be guiding that down even further, given the decline in noninterest-bearing deposits quarter-over-quarter?

然後是最後一個，你的無息存款，我知道你之前提到過，本季度它的降幅肯定超過平均水平。但是您並沒有將利潤率降低太多。你說的是 3% 到 3.05%，而我猜本季度是 3.1%。鑑於無息存款環比下降，您為什麼不進一步降低這一點？

Yes. It's a couple of different things. One is again if you end up just looking at the mix of total deposits, we again think that total deposits will be relatively stable and that the mix of NIB will be relatively stable around that 25%, up or down.

是的。這是幾件不同的事情。一個是如果你最終只看總存款的組合，我們再次認為總存款將相對穩定，而 NIB 的組合將相對穩定在 25% 左右，上下。

Part of the decline in this particular quarter ties back to some of the seasonal flows, which are part of our trust business but also the deposits that we knew were going to go out the door to MUFG because of closing down the PurePoint, et cetera. All of those things kind of tie in to the reason why we saw the decline this quarter.

這個特定季度的部分下降與一些季節性流量有關，這些流量是我們信託業務的一部分，但我們知道由於關閉 PurePoint 等，存款將流出 MUFG。所有這些都與我們看到本季度下降的原因有關。

Next, we can go to John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

接下來，我們可以去 John McDonald 和 Autonomous Research。

Wanted to ask on the idea of getting above 9% by the end of the year on CET1. Does that rely on the RWA mitigation opportunities? Or is that just kind of the 20 to 25 basis points that Terry mentioned before the RWA benefit? Is that something that will help you next year? Can you talk a little bit about that?

想問一下 CET1 在年底前達到 9% 以上的想法。這是否依賴於 RWA 緩解機會？或者這只是特里在 RWA 收益之前提到的 20 到 25 個基點？這對你明年有幫助嗎？你能談談嗎？

Yes. We think that the capital generation, the accretion that we'll see of the 20 to 25 is core earnings capability. So it does not rely on those RWAs. So the RWA optimization that we will go through will be above and beyond that. That's a part of that overall capital strategy that Andy talked about earlier.

是的。我們認為資本的產生，我們將看到的 20 到 25 歲的增長是核心盈利能力。因此它不依賴於那些 RWA。因此，我們將進行的 RWA 優化將超出此範圍。這是安迪之前談到的整體資本戰略的一部分。

The benefits of that should happen and help you towards the end of this year, maybe into next year as you work towards end of '24 capital target?

這樣做的好處應該會發生，並在今年年底幫助你，也許會在你努力實現 24 世紀末資本目標時進入明年？

Yes, it will help us both this year as well as into next year, absolutely. As you know, John, we've been kind of preparing for Cat II for well over a year. We put a lot of things in place in the third and fourth quarter. We took some actions in the fourth quarter. And we'll utilize a lot of those tools, if you will, as part of the RWA optimization process that we're going to go through.

是的，它絕對會在今年和明年幫助我們。如你所知，約翰，我們已經為 Cat II 準備了一年多。我們在第三和第四季度做了很多事情。我們在第四季度採取了一些行動。如果您願意，我們將利用其中的很多工具，作為我們將要經歷的 RWA 優化過程的一部分。

Yes. And just to clarify, Terry, this doesn't happen prior to the end of '24, even with the Fed, right? The Fed would tell you on January 2024 that it would take effect by the end of 2024, right? So it's not like they're going to tell you any color there, correct?

是的。特里，澄清一下，這不會發生在 24 世紀末之前，即使是美聯儲，對吧？美聯儲會在 2024 年 1 月告訴你，它將在 2024 年底生效，對嗎？所以他們不會告訴你任何顏色，對嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Okay. And then any idea of the pace of AOCI burn-down? Obviously, the AOCI came down 11% this quarter with the help of rates. But in a world where rates are not coming down, what's the natural kind of burn-off pace that you might expect for that over a year or 2? Any help on that and just kind of reminding us of the duration again?

好的。那麼對 AOCI 燃盡的步伐有什麼想法嗎？顯然，在利率的幫助下，本季度 AOCI 下降了 11%。但在一個利率沒有下降的世界裡，你可能期望一年或兩年內的自然燃燒速度是多少？對此有何幫助，只是再次提醒我們持續時間？

Yes. The -- well, again, the duration of the AFS portfolio right now is about 3.8 years. So just -- if you kind of take that into consideration, the burn-down will still be fairly reasonable, even without interest rates. And again, we've put some hedges into place in order to dampen the effect of rising interest rates with respect to AOCI.

是的。同樣，AFS 投資組合的期限目前約為 3.8 年。所以 - 如果你考慮到這一點，即使沒有利率，燃燒仍然是相當合理的。同樣，我們已經實施了一些對沖措施，以抑制利率上升對 AOCI 的影響。

And next, we can go to John Pancari with Evercore.

接下來，我們可以和 Evercore 一起去見 John Pancari。

On the -- back to the RWA optimization, can you maybe give us a little more color on what you're looking at there? I know you mentioned credit transfers and risk transfers. But maybe if you can kind of flesh that out a little bit and maybe give us an idea of the magnitude of the benefit that you see potentially materializing as a result of the RWA actions? And then lastly, is other business or portfolio sales or divestitures considered within that?

關於 - 回到 RWA 優化，你能不能給我們更多關於你在那裡看到的東西的顏色？我知道您提到了信用轉移和風險轉移。但也許你可以稍微充實一下，也許可以讓我們了解你認為 RWA 行動可能帶來的好處有多大？最後，是否考慮了其他業務或投資組合的出售或資產剝離？

The second part of the question was?

問題的第二部分是？

Their business sales.

他們的業務銷售。

Business sales. Yes, at least at this particular point in time, obviously, we'll look at a lot of different things in terms of businesses that we may look at to sell. I mean, that portfolio optimization is something we're always doing. And we've done that a number of different times over the last several years. So that obviously will be something we'll look at. But we have a sizable mortgage servicing rights portfolio. We'll take a look at selling portions of that, where that makes sense. We'll look at asset securitization like we did in the fourth quarter.

業務銷售。是的，至少在這個特定的時間點，顯然，我們會在我們可能考慮出售的業務方面考慮很多不同的事情。我的意思是，投資組合優化是我們一直在做的事情。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經多次這樣做了。所以這顯然是我們要研究的問題。但我們擁有相當大的抵押貸款服務權組合。我們將看看銷售其中的一部分，這是有意義的。我們將像第四季度那樣研究資產證券化。

There are a whole variety of risk transfer sort of structures that both we put -- we have put into place and where we have on the shelf and ready to kind of start moving forward on when we can. So I think it's a whole variety of different things that we will take a look at as well as balancing the mix toward growth in, what I would say, less capital-intensive businesses as opposed to capital-intensive businesses. So it will be a whole combination of things as we move forward, John.

我們有各種各樣的風險轉移結構——我們已經落實到位，我們已經擱置了，並準備好在可能的時候開始前進。因此，我認為這是我們將要研究的各種不同的事情，以及平衡組合以實現增長，我想說的是，資本密集度較低的企業與資本密集型企業相對。因此，隨著我們的前進，這將是一個完整的組合，約翰。

And do you have a way to help us estimate the magnitude in terms of how you're thinking about that targeted contribution from the RWA optimization strategy?

您是否有辦法幫助我們根據您如何考慮 RWA 優化策略的目標貢獻來估計規模？

So the strategies that we have in place are reflected in the guidance that we provided. So that would not change that. And we'll continue to update that guidance, given the economic conditions and rates and the scenarios that we see. But as Terry mentioned, this is a priority for us. And we have a number of initiatives underway, which is the appropriate thing to do. Because I think capital for all banks is going to be more precious as we think about the forward regulatory environment.

因此，我們制定的戰略反映在我們提供的指導中。所以這不會改變這一點。鑑於經濟狀況和利率以及我們將看到的情景，我們將繼續更新該指南。但正如特里所說，這是我們的首要任務。我們正在進行多項舉措，這是應該做的事情。因為我認為在我們考慮前瞻性監管環境時，所有銀行的資本都會變得更加寶貴。

Got it. And then just one more for me. And I know you mentioned in terms of other regulatory changes potentially coming down the pipe. You're already in the advanced phase of proposed rulemaking on the TLAC. And can you just talk about the other potential regulatory changes you see coming down the down the pipe? I know you had mentioned the AOCI efforts. But can you talk about potentially around FDIC or stress capital buffer, liquidity rules, anything on that front worth commenting on?

知道了。然後再給我一個。我知道你提到了其他可能即將發生的監管變化。您已經處於 TLAC 擬議規則制定的高級階段。你能談談你看到的其他潛在的監管變化嗎？我知道你提到了 AOCI 的努力。但是你能談談潛在的 FDIC 或壓力資本緩衝、流動性規則，以及這方面值得評論的任何事情嗎？

Yes. I mean, it could be a number of different things. I mean, we talked about TLAC, I mean, just levels of capital. You hear them talking about domestically significantly important banks. So increasing the level of the stress capital buffer is another piece of it. I think another one will be around LCR. And then in the CCAR process, I think that they'll incorporate, I would say, multiple -- kind of go back to what they used to do, they'll have kind of multiple scenarios.

是的。我的意思是，它可能是許多不同的東西。我的意思是，我們談到了 TLAC，我的意思是，只是資本水平。你聽到他們談論國內非常重要的銀行。因此，增加壓力資本緩衝的水平是其中的另一部分。我認為另一個將圍繞 LCR。然後在 CCAR 過程中，我認為他們會合併，我會說，多個 - 有點回到他們過去所做的事情，他們會有多種場景。

But one will be kind of, what I would say, a traditional sort of stress test, where unemployment goes up and rates come down. Another one will be more, I think, some form of stagflation, where rates stay relatively high and you experience the credit loss stress. And again, we've run a variety of different scenarios. And I think we feel like we would be able to withstand either one of those just based upon our risk profile.

但是，我想說的是一種傳統的壓力測試，失業率上升，利率下降。我認為，另一種情況會更多，某種形式的滯脹，利率保持在相對較高的水平，你會經歷信用損失壓力。同樣，我們運行了各種不同的場景。而且我認為我們覺得我們能夠根據我們的風險狀況承受其中任何一種。

Next, we can go to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來，我們可以和 RBC 一起去 Gerard Cassidy。

I have a narrower question. I think it was on Slide 8, you guys talked about the impacts of deposits following March 8. The inflows that you referenced, did that come primarily in the Union Bank franchise? Because obviously, it was physically located in California. I know you guys have been in California as well. And then second, was it more commercial versus consumer or more interest-bearing versus noninterest-bearing?

我有一個更窄的問題。我想是在幻燈片 8 上，你們談到了 3 月 8 日之後存款的影響。你提到的資金流入主要來自聯合銀行特許經營權嗎？因為很明顯，它實際位於加利福尼亞。我知道你們也去過加利福尼亞。其次，它是更商業化還是更消費者化，還是更生息還是不生息？

Yes. Maybe in terms of mix, so right after March 8, we actually saw a lot of account customer opening more so on the commercial corporate side. I would say probably 70% on that side as opposed to on the consumer side of the equation, we saw inflows. But again, that ended up getting offset by kind of seasonal flows within corporate trust as the rest of the month kind of progressed.

是的。也許就組合而言，就在 3 月 8 日之後，我們實際上看到很多客戶在商業公司方面開設更多。我想說的是，與等式的消費者方面相反，我們看到了 70% 的資金流入。但同樣，隨著本月剩餘時間的進展，這最終被公司信託內部的季節性流動所抵消。

The other thing that I would say is that when I look at deposit, net new customer accounts in -- specifically in California and the consumer side, we actually saw a nice increase or pop in March relative to previous months. So I think that we're actually probably seeing some benefits associated with that. And I think that addresses the questions that you had.

我要說的另一件事是，當我查看存款、淨新客戶賬戶時——特別是在加利福尼亞州和消費者方面，我們實際上看到 3 月份與前幾個月相比出現了不錯的增長或增長。所以我認為我們實際上可能會看到與此相關的一些好處。我認為這解決了您提出的問題。

And then over the years, you guys have always done quite well, and underwriting your loan portfolio, you show up well in the CCAR tests over the years on credit. And so you don't have a very big exposure to commercial real estate. And I always find it interesting to talk to banks that don't have big exposures to a potential credit area that could be problem. What are you guys seeing in that commercial real estate area, particularly in the office portfolio? Any color would be helpful.

然後多年來，你們一直做得很好，承保你們的貸款組合，你們多年來在 CCAR 信貸測試中表現出色。因此，您對商業房地產的敞口並不大。而且我總是覺得與那些在可能存在問題的潛在信貸領域沒有大量敞口的銀行交談很有趣。你們在那個商業房地產領域看到了什麼，特別是在辦公樓組合中？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure, Gerard. So first of all, the rest of the portfolio is very stable. If you look at our charge-off rates and non-accruals and so forth and the numbers around credit metrics, the rest of the portfolio is stable and starting to normalize but normalizing as we expected. I do think the area of focus for all of us is office within real estate. And I do think there's some activity occurring there with tenants' behavior changes, sponsor behavior changes. That is going to cause some pressure in the industry because of maybe an acceleration of what we thought was going to be a little longer process occurring more rapidly.

當然，杰拉德。所以首先，投資組合的其餘部分非常穩定。如果您查看我們的沖銷率和非應計費用等以及圍繞信用指標的數字，投資組合的其餘部分是穩定的並且開始正常化但正如我們預期的那樣正常化。我確實認為我們所有人關注的領域是房地產中的辦公室。而且我確實認為隨著租戶行為的變化，贊助商行為的變化，那裡正在發生一些活動。這將給行業帶來一些壓力，因為我們認為可能會加速更快地發生更長的過程。

So you can imagine that we're very focused on it as well. We have not put on a lot of CRE office over the last many years. We've been very, very conservative around that. So as you say, we don't have a large exposure. But I do think it's an area of a lot of emphasis and focus because I do think there are going to be pressures occurring.

所以你可以想像我們也非常關注它。在過去的很多年裡，我們並沒有放置太多的 CRE 辦公室。我們對此非常非常保守。所以正如你所說，我們沒有很大的風險敞口。但我確實認為這是一個非常強調和關注的領域，因為我確實認為會出現壓力。

Next, we can go to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

接下來，我們可以和美國銀行一起去Ebrahim Poonawala。

I had a follow-up question. I think you briefly mentioned about, I think, AOCI hedges against if rates spiked. I was wondering, Terry, if you can elaborate on that. We've seen the 5-year come back again in the last few weeks. Just what's the downside risk to capital or just an increase in AOCI if rates spiked another 50 basis points? And just talk to us in terms of the extent to which you expect to hedge against that.

我有一個後續問題。我想你簡要提到過，如果利率飆升，AOCI 會進行對沖。我想知道，特里，你能否詳細說明一下。過去幾週，我們看到 5 年期再次回歸。如果利率再飆升 50 個基點，資本的下行風險或 AOCI 的增加究竟是什麼？並就您希望對沖的程度與我們交談。

Yes. So again, we've been taking a number of different actions in order to kind of dampen the effect. As I said, selling securities, where appropriate, shortening the duration, which we did very nicely, I guess, in the first quarter, and then putting in place pay-fixed swaps against the long end of the curve, so dampening the effect of a movement up of rates in both, for example, in the 5- and 10-year sort of space. We -- if rates moved up 50 basis points, obviously, AOCI would be impacted to some extent. But we've dampened that quite a bit over the course of the last couple of quarters.

是的。因此，我們再次採取了許多不同的行動來抑制這種影響。正如我所說，在適當的時候出售證券，縮短久期，我猜我們在第一季度做得非常好，然後針對曲線的長端進行定期支付的掉期，從而抑制了例如，在 5 年和 10 年的空間中，利率都在上升。我們——如果利率上升 50 個基點，顯然，AOCI 會在一定程度上受到影響。但在過去幾個季度中，我們已經大大削弱了這一點。

Understood. And just going back to deposit betas, I think you talked about 40% relative to 34% this quarter. I mean, I'm sure you all do a ton of analysis on where terminal betas might end up. But what's the downside risk? I mean, we've obviously had a shock to the system, Fed funds being 5%-plus. What's the risk? How do you handicap the risk of that 40% beta actually turning out to be something much higher, maybe closer to 50%?

明白了。回到存款貝塔，我想你本季度談到了 40% 相對於 34%。我的意思是，我相信你們都對終端測試版可能會在哪裡結束進行了大量分析。但下行風險是什麼？我的意思是，我們顯然對系統感到震驚，聯邦基金利率超過 5%。有什麼風險？你如何阻止 40% 的貝塔值實際上變得更高，可能接近 50% 的風險？

Yes. We've done a lot of different analysis. And I mean, you are right. The competition for deposits is getting stronger. We've kind of taken that into consideration. We're seeing over 5% in some markets. Generally, it is smaller banks where that is occurring, community markets, those sorts of things. And that's because for those entities, that's their primary source of funding. And so that's going to occur. But all of that has been kind of taken into consideration in terms of looking at that 40% deposit beta.

是的。我們做了很多不同的分析。我的意思是，你是對的。存款競爭愈演愈烈。我們已經考慮到了這一點。我們在某些市場看到超過 5%。通常，發生這種情況的是小型銀行、社區市場等。這是因為對於這些實體來說，這是他們的主要資金來源。所以這將會發生。但在查看 40% 的存款貝塔時，所有這些都已被考慮在內。

If you end up looking at our business, again in terms of who we end up competing against, et cetera, but what we end up looking at and tracking is, especially on the institutional corporate side of the equation, is money market rates and those sorts of things. Right now, that's kind of in the high 4s. And our deposit pricing is very competitive with that, which is why it gives us confidence with respect to both flows and the deposit betas that we've articulated.

如果你最終審視我們的業務，再次從我們最終與誰競爭等方面來看，但我們最終審視和追踪的是，尤其是在等式的機構公司方面，是貨幣市場利率和那些各種各樣的事情。現在，這有點像 high 4s。我們的存款定價與之相比非常有競爭力，這就是為什麼它讓我們對我們所闡明的流量和存款貝塔充滿信心。

But I mean, you don't see a major shift in consumer and retail deposit pricing today versus maybe at the start of the year?

但我的意思是，與年初相比，您沒有看到今天的消費者和零售存款定價發生重大變化嗎？

Yes, it's going to depend. I mean, obviously, it depends upon the rate environment. I mean, if the Fed, for example, goes up another 50 or 100 basis points from here, that would put more pressure on deposit betas. But if you end up looking at the market implied or even up a bit, I still feel pretty comfortable with where we're at.

是的，這將取決於。我的意思是，很明顯，這取決於利率環境。我的意思是，例如，如果美聯儲從這裡再上漲 50 或 100 個基點，那將給存款貝塔帶來更大的壓力。但如果你最終看到隱含的市場或什至上漲一點，我仍然對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。

And next, we can go to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們可以去德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

It's Deutsche Bank. You've got very strong reserves-to-loans on a stated basis. I guess, first, can you remind us what the impact is if you adjust it for the Union Bank loans that were marked at fair value when you took them on, if you have that handy?

是德意志銀行。在規定的基礎上，你有非常強大的儲備貸款比。我想，首先，如果您手頭有的話，您能否提醒我們，如果您對接受貸款時以公允價值計價的聯合銀行貸款進行調整，會產生什麼影響？

Yes, I missed the first part of the question. Andy, do you...

是的，我錯過了問題的第一部分。安迪，你...

I think, Mike, you're trying to understand -- or Matt, you're trying to understand the -- if Union Bank has an impact on our reserve-to-loans ratio and what it is. I don't think it has a major impact.

我認為，邁克，你想了解——或者馬特，你想了解——聯合銀行是否對我們的準備金與貸款比率有影響，以及它是什麼。我不認為它有重大影響。

Not a significant one.

不是很重要。

Okay. And then just broadly speaking, like as you think about the rest of the year, I mean, you're obviously taking a best guess on reserves at the current period. But what are your thoughts on...

好的。然後從廣義上講，就像你考慮今年剩餘時間一樣，我的意思是，你顯然對當前時期的儲備做出了最好的猜測。但是你有什麼想法...

Sorry, it's hard to hear you.

抱歉，很難聽清。

Sorry. Can you hear me better now?

對不起。你現在能聽得更清楚了嗎？

That's better. Yes, thank you, Matt.

那更好。是的，謝謝你，馬特。

Okay, sorry about that. I was just asking about the outlook for the loan loss reserves from here in your base case.

好的，對此感到抱歉。我只是問你的基本案例中貸款損失準備金的前景。

Yes. So our expectation is that, again, Andy has talked about the fact that we're preparing for any economic sort of outcome that might exist. I think if you end up looking at the consensus in the marketplace, some form of recession, probably a softer or moderate sort of recession late this year, early next year. And if you look at the market implied, I would kind of tie into that.

是的。所以我們的期望是，安迪再次談到我們正在為可能存在的任何經濟結果做準備。我認為，如果你最終看到市場上的共識，某種形式的衰退，可能是今年年底、明年初的較溫和或溫和的衰退。如果你看一下隱含的市場，我會參與其中。

When we go through our reserving process, we look at multiple scenarios. We weigh it to the conservative side. We look at five different scenarios. We make assumptions with respect to that. Only 35% of it's weighted towards what I would call the base case and the rest of it is downside. So we feel pretty good about where the reserve levels are. Obviously, if we saw economic shock above and beyond kind of what is being expected, that might be a little bit different. But we feel pretty good about how we're thinking about it.

當我們完成預訂流程時，我們會考慮多種情況。我們將其權衡到保守的一面。我們看五種不同的情況。我們對此做出假設。其中只有 35% 的權重是我稱之為基本情況的，其餘部分是不利的。因此，我們對儲備水平的水平感到非常滿意。顯然，如果我們看到經濟衝擊超出預期，那可能會有所不同。但我們對我們的思考方式感覺很好。

Okay. Great. And then maybe if I could just squeeze in on spending trends throughout 1Q, you guys, through your payments business, obviously see a lot. Just any observations on kind of trends throughout the quarter and maybe any comments so far in April?

好的。偉大的。然後也許如果我能在整個第一季度擠進支出趨勢，你們，通過你們的支付業務，顯然看到了很多。只是對整個季度的趨勢有任何觀察，也許到目前為止在 4 月份有任何評論嗎？

Yes. In our payments business, we continue to see pretty strong sales, 10-plus percent, for example, in our payments merchant processing business, a very strong mid- to high single digits with respect to our corporate payments business. The -- if you end up -- comparing any of these things to pre pandemic is through the roof.

是的。在我們的支付業務中，我們繼續看到相當強勁的銷售額，例如 10% 以上，在我們的支付商戶處理業務中，與我們的企業支付業務相關的非常強勁的中高個位數。如果你最終將這些事情中的任何一個與大流行前進行比較，那就太過分了。

So we continue to see a good spend in the business. I would say that after the market disruption, there was a bit more softness in retail sales, which we're going to continue to watch. It's really too early to tell whether or not that's a trend or whether that was really some of the concerns around the market disruption. But we'll continue to watch that. Andy, what would you add?

因此，我們繼續看到該業務的良好支出。我想說的是，在市場動蕩之後，零售銷售更加疲軟，我們將繼續關注這一點。現在判斷這是否是一種趨勢，或者這是否真的是市場混亂的一些擔憂還為時過早。但我們會繼續關注。安迪，你會添加什麼？

Yes. And that is still growing, Matt. But it's just growing at a lower rate, particularly in retail. Airline spend continues to be very, very high, which is a little bit of the reason that we have a differential between sales growth and revenue growth. Because the airline spread is a little thinner. So travel continues to be strong. Retail came down a bit but still growing.

是的。而且這還在增長，馬特。但它只是以較低的速度增長，尤其是在零售業。航空公司的支出仍然非常非常高，這在一定程度上是我們在銷售增長和收入增長之間存在差異的原因。因為航空公司的差價有點薄。因此，旅遊業繼續保持強勁勢頭。零售業有所下降，但仍在增長。

Next, we can go to Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer & Co.

接下來，我們可以和 Oppenheimer & Co. 一起去 Chris Kotowski。

You've given us a lot of good detail on the AFS side. I just wonder if you could discuss a little bit how you anticipate managing the held-to-maturity portfolio. Do you also plan to let that kind of burn down and shorten? And I'm curious just given that, that's a lot of mortgage-backed and that they're principal payments each month, how quickly does that portfolio burn down? Or do you see the need to maintain a lot of duration there just in case we get another decline in rates?

您已經為我們提供了很多有關 AFS 方面的詳細信息。我只是想知道您是否可以討論一下您預期如何管理持有至到期的投資組合。你是否也打算讓那種燃燒和縮短？我很好奇，鑑於有很多抵押貸款支持，而且它們是每個月的本金付款，那麼該投資組合會以多快的速度耗盡？或者你是否認為有必要在那裡保持大量的持續時間，以防我們再次出現利率下降？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we look at both sides of the equation. The burn-down on the HTM side, just simply because of the nature of it, is really more tied to how quickly you see payoffs and what the duration of that ends up looking at. I think as we look at the size of the investment portfolio, et cetera, we'll take into consideration what level of duration we want to have in that -- in the HTM portfolio. But that's going to be more a function of just pay-downs and payoffs over time.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，我們看等式的兩邊。 HTM 方面的耗盡，僅僅是因為它的性質，實際上更取決於你看到回報的速度以及最終看到的持續時間。我認為，當我們查看投資組合的規模等時，我們將考慮我們希望在 HTM 投資組合中擁有的持續時間水平。但隨著時間的推移，這將更多地只是支付和回報的函數。

Yes. But I mean, just I guess, question directionally in the next couple of quarters, there's -- you'd probably let the duration shorten and the size of the portfolio burn-down left to your own devices?

是的。但我的意思是，我猜，在接下來的幾個季度中有方向性的問題，有 - 你可能會讓持續時間縮短並且投資組合的大小留給你自己的設備？

Yes, absolutely, yes.

是的，絕對的，是的。

Next, we have Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

接下來，我們有 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

First question, I just want to ask you on credit. On an adjusted basis, your charge-offs were 30 basis points this quarter. And per the comments you made earlier about CRE and some of the data we see in the release about delinquencies and NPAs increasing, what's your outlook for charge-offs as we go forward versus the 30 basis points that we saw in the first?

第一個問題，我只想問你信用。在調整後的基礎上，您本季度的沖銷為 30 個基點。根據您之前對 CRE 所做的評論以及我們在發布中看到的有關拖欠和 NPA 增加的一些數據，與我們在第一個看到的 30 個基點相比，您對我們前進的沖銷前景有何看法？

Yes. I mean, our expectation is that 30 basis will continue to normalize throughout the year and into 2024, probably on a similar sort of pace. I think it's 23 basis points in the fourth quarter. So I think that, that will continue to kind of move up as the year progresses, just part of normalization.

是的。我的意思是，我們的預期是 30 個基點將在全年和 2024 年繼續正常化，可能以類似的速度。我認為第四季度是 23 個基點。所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，這將繼續上升，這只是正常化的一部分。

Yes, understood on that. Okay. And then just coming back to the full year guide, obviously, you made a modest adjustment, which is well expected, given the change in the rate outlook. We can back into that, I think, it's mostly on the NII side, just given that, that's where seemingly some of the changes were versus the prior outlook. But can you just kind of refresh us and just give us kind of just some underlying thoughts of NII growth versus fee growth and any changes you had on -- if any, on the fee side versus your prior outlook?

是的，明白這一點。好的。然後回到全年指南，顯然，鑑於利率前景的變化，你做了適度的調整，這是意料之中的。我們可以回顧一下，我認為，這主要是在 NII 方面，只是考慮到這一點，這似乎是一些變化與之前的前景相比的地方。但是你能不能讓我們耳目一新，給我們一些關於 NII 增長與費用增長的基本想法，以及你所做的任何變化——如果有的話，在費用方面與你之前的展望相比？

To your point, most of the changes were in NII. And it's a function of the rate curve, the rate environment, the expectation about rate increases as well as the deposit pricing that Terry made reference to and the beta approaching 40%. So most of the change was in NII.

就您而言，大部分更改都在 NII 中。它是利率曲線、利率環境、加息預期以及特里提到的存款定價和接近 40% 的貝塔值的函數。所以大部分變化都在 NII 中。

Okay. And then so just last follow-up, so then embedded in your fee outlook for the year is pretty decent growth, it would seem then. And are you expecting that to still be mostly driven by the payments business? Or are there other areas that you're expecting to see some good growth in?

好的。然後就是最後一次跟進，然後嵌入你今年的費用前景是相當可觀的增長，看起來那麼。您是否認為這仍將主要由支付業務驅動？還是您希望在其他領域看到一些良好的增長？

We have a great diversity of revenue sources and they're all doing well. So payments is up, approaching double digits, 9% on a year-over-year basis. As Terry talked about, spend levels are good. We have had a bang of a quarter in our commercial products group across the categories. And that is doing just terrifically in this environment and just driving revenue growth as well. Trust is doing well, so -- and mortgage. So that's the value of a diverse revenue stream. There are many different sources of revenue and fee income.

我們的收入來源非常多樣化，而且它們都做得很好。因此，付款增加了，接近兩位數，同比增長 9%。正如特里所說，支出水平很好。我們的商業產品組在各個類別中都取得了四分之一的成功。這在這種環境下做得非常好，也推動了收入增長。信託做得很好，所以 - 和抵押貸款。這就是多元化收入來源的價值。有許多不同的收入來源和費用收入。

Next, we can go to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們可以和摩根大通一起去Vivek Juneja。

A couple of just clarifications, I think you all mentioned that accretion from the deal, Andy, is going better than you had expected. Any -- I know you've talked a lot, just trying to pull this all together. Where are you seeing it better thus far?

幾個簡單的澄清，我想你們都提到了這筆交易的增長，安迪，比你預期的要好。任何 - 我知道你已經談了很多，只是想把這一切放在一起。到目前為止，您在哪裡看得更好？

Yes, so -- and we talked about this, Vivek, in the fourth quarter that the expectation of that 8% going to 11% and the return is actually better. So if I look at it in the big picture, when we initially thought about the deal, Union Bank had a $2.9 billion-or-so revenue base and a $2.6-or-so billion -- $2.3 billion expense base, so $600 million PPNR. And you look at the first quarter, and it's double that. So the revenues are stronger, principally because of the value of deposits in this rate environment. The expenses are a little less. And our expectations on our efficiencies are continuing to be on plan. So all that adds up to a higher accretion.

是的，所以——我們在第四季度談到了這一點，Vivek，8% 到 11% 的預期和回報實際上更好。因此，如果我從大局來看，當我們最初考慮這筆交易時，聯合銀行的收入基礎約為 29 億美元，費用基礎約為 26 至 23 億美元，因此 PPNR 為 6 億美元.你看看第一季度，它是原來的兩倍。所以收入更強，主要是因為在這種利率環境下存款的價值。開銷要少一些。我們對效率的期望繼續按計劃進行。因此，所有這些加起來會產生更高的吸積。

Net higher accretion is -- the net purchase accounting is actually negative, given the core deposit intangibles. So it's very strong.

淨增幅是——考慮到核心存款無形資產，淨購買會計實際上是負數。所以它非常強大。

Right. And that's before you even finish the integration that you -- I mean, that's not until second quarter anyway?

正確的。那是在你甚至完成整合之前——我的意思是，無論如何要到第二季度？

Yes.

是的。

That's right.

這是正確的。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Next, we can go to Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們可以和瑞銀一起去 Erika Najarian。

Yes, sorry to prolong the call, I just had one follow-up question. Andy, I asked the question in a compound way, so I apologize. But if you think about accreting to over 9% CET1 by year-end, how would you stack rank dividend growth as a priority?

是的，很抱歉延長通話時間，我只有一個後續問題。安迪，我以復合的方式問了這個問題，所以我道歉。但是，如果您考慮在年底前將 CET1 增加到 9% 以上，您會如何將股息增長列為優先事項？

Dividend growth continues to be a priority, Erika. So our expectation is we would have continued growth in the dividend. The dividend growth number is not hugely material to the capital accretion math. If you go through the numbers on that, that is a relatively small component of a negative downturn in capital. So that expectation that I talked about includes the expectation of a strong dividend.

埃里卡，股息增長仍然是一個優先事項。因此，我們的預期是股息會持續增長。股息增長數字對資本增值數學的影響不大。如果仔細研究這些數字，那隻是資本負下滑的一個相對較小的組成部分。因此，我談到的期望包括對強勁紅利的期望。

And next, we'll go to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們將與富國銀行證券公司的邁克梅奧會面。

Last quarter, you mentioned your reserves were for an environment with 6% unemployment. I was wondering if you had an update for that. And given CECL accounting, does that mean your reserving is done before the recession has even started? Or how do you think about that? And what about the release of reserves to the extent you stay down this low charge-off range even with some of the normalization?

上個季度，您提到您的儲備金適用於失業率為 6% 的環境。我想知道你是否有更新。考慮到 CECL 會計，這是否意味著您的準備金甚至在經濟衰退開始之前就已完成？或者你怎麼看？即使在某些正常化的情況下，如果您將儲備金釋放到您保持在這個低註銷範圍內的程度又如何呢？

Yes. Well, I think we'll wait and see what ends up happening, given the uncertainty that's in the economy regarding the last bit of it. But yes, I know we had said that it was the weighted average. At the peak, it was -- peak quarter was about a little over 6%. It's about 5.9% today is kind of what our weighted average case kind of comes up to, so very similar to what we had before.

是的。好吧，我想我們會等著看最終會發生什麼，考慮到經濟中最後一點的不確定性。但是，是的，我知道我們說過它是加權平均值。在高峰期，高峰季度大約略高於 6%。今天大約是 5.9%，這是我們的加權平均案例得出的結果，與我們以前的情況非常相似。

Okay. And your outlook for the economy, soft recession, hard landing, kind of what you're thinking?

好的。你對經濟的展望，軟衰退，硬著陸，你在想什麼？

So Mike, we expect a soft recession, a moderate recession in the later half of this year. But as Terry mentioned, our CECL accounting is assuming a sort of a 2/3 downturn, 1/3 base case. So we are reserved to a little bit more downward scenario.

所以邁克，我們預計今年下半年會出現溫和衰退。但正如特里所提到的，我們的 CECL 會計假設了一種 2/3 的低迷，1/3 的基本情況。因此，我們對更向下的情況有所保留。

And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn it back to George Andersen. Please continue.

我們現在沒有其他問題了。我現在把它轉回給喬治·安徒生。請繼續。

Thank you for listening to our call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

感謝您聆聽我們的電話。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係部。

And this concludes today's conference. Thanks for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。