美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 a.m. Central Time.

歡迎來到 U.S. Bancorp 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。在審查結果後，將舉行正式的問答環節。 （操作員說明）從今天中部時間上午 11:00 左右開始，此通話將被錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to George Andersen, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將電話會議轉交給美國合眾銀行高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監喬治安德森。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Terry Dolan, our Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer. During their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家早上好。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere；和我們的副主席兼首席財務官 Terry Dolan。在他們準備好的發言中，安迪和特里將參考幻燈片演示。可在我們的網站 usbank.com 上獲取演示文稿的副本以及我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表。

I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, in our press release, our Form 10-K and in subsequent reports on file with the SEC.

我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。在今天的演示文稿的第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿、我們的 10-K 表格以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的後續報告中，描述了可能會實質性改變我們當前前瞻性假設的因素。

Following their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will take any questions that you have. I will now turn the call over to Andy.

在他們準備好的發言之後，安迪和特里將回答您提出的任何問題。我現在將把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

謝謝，喬治。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。

I'll begin on Slide 3. This quarter, we completed the acquisition of MUFG Union Bank on December 1. In the fourth quarter, we reported $0.57 per diluted share or $1.20 after adjusting for notable items related to the acquisition. This was a complex quarter that included 1 month of Union Bank results, merger integration charges and balance sheet optimization activity. Terry will provide more details on these notable items.

我將從幻燈片 3 開始。本季度，我們於 12 月 1 日完成了對 MUFG Union Bank 的收購。在第四季度，我們公佈的每股攤薄收益為 0.57 美元，或在對與收購相關的重要項目進行調整後為 1.20 美元。這是一個複雜的季度，包括 1 個月的聯合銀行業績、合併整合費用和資產負債表優化活動。特里將提供有關這些值得注意的項目的更多詳細信息。

Importantly, we ended the year with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 8.4%, which was just above our expected level at deal close, and we delivered positive operating leverage for U.S. Bancorp legacy operations of 230 basis points for the full year. Strong year-over-year pretax provision income growth, as adjusted for notable items, was driven by net interest income growth and positive operating leverage. Credit quality remains strong, although credit metrics are starting to normalize as expected.

重要的是，我們以 8.4% 的普通股一級比率結束了這一年，略高於我們在交易結束時的預期水平，並且我們為 U.S. Bancorp 遺留業務提供了全年 230 個基點的積極經營槓桿。經顯著項目調整後，稅前撥備收入同比強勁增長，這是由淨利息收入增長和積極的經營槓桿推動的。信用質量依然強勁，儘管信用指標正開始如預期般正常化。

Slide 4 details our reported and adjusted income statement results as well as end-of-period balances and other performance metrics. End-of-period assets for the company totaled $675 billion, reflecting the acquisition of Union Bank and certain balance sheet optimization actions.

幻燈片 4 詳細介紹了我們報告和調整後的損益表結果以及期末餘額和其他績效指標。公司的期末資產總計 6750 億美元，反映了對聯合銀行的收購和某些資產負債表優化行動。

Slide 5 highlights key performance ratios. This quarter, we delivered a return on average assets of 1.2%, a return of average common equity of 16.8% and a return on tangible common equity of 23.4%, each as adjusted for notable items.

幻燈片 5 突出顯示了關鍵性能比率。本季度，我們實現了 1.2% 的平均資產回報率、16.8% 的平均普通股回報率和 23.4% 的有形普通股回報率，均針對重要項目進行了調整。

Turning to Slide 6. The completion of the Union Bank acquisition marked a significant milestone for our company. With double-digit percent increases in loan and deposit balances, Union Bank adds meaningful scale to our business that enables us to better serve our customers and communities.

轉到幻燈片 6。完成對 Union Bank 的收購標誌著我們公司的一個重要里程碑。隨著貸款和存款餘額的兩位數增長，聯合銀行顯著擴大了我們的業務規模，使我們能夠更好地為我們的客戶和社區服務。

Union contributes considerable small business and consumer market share in a demographically attractive California market. And we're excited about the potential to deepen existing Union Bank relationships by overlaying our leading digital capabilities and robust product set, including wealth management, consumer and business banking and payments offerings, across a loyal but under-penetrated consumer base.

Union 在具有人口吸引力的加利福尼亞市場中貢獻了相當大的小型企業和消費者市場份額。我們很高興有可能通過覆蓋我們領先的數字能力和強大的產品集來加深現有的聯合銀行關係，這些產品包括財富管理、消費者和商業銀行以及支付產品，覆蓋忠誠但滲透率低的消費者群。

In many ways, this deal underscores our commitment to creating a stronger, more competitive regional banking organization in a rapidly evolving environment. One of the more attractive aspects of this transaction is Union Bank's high-quality, low-cost consumer deposit franchise, which will support continued loan growth and margins.

在許多方面，這項交易強調了我們致力於在快速發展的環境中創建一個更強大、更具競爭力的區域銀行組織。此次交易更具吸引力的方面之一是 Union Bank 的高質量、低成本消費存款特許經營權，這將支持持續的貸款增長和利潤率。

Let me turn the call over now to Terry, who will provide more detail on the quarter.

現在讓我將電話轉給特里，他將提供有關該季度的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

If you turn to Slide 7, as Andy mentioned, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.57 for the quarter or $1.20 per share after adjusting for notable items related to the acquisition. Notable items related to Union Bank acquisition are comprised of 3 primary elements that reduced earnings per share by $0.63 related to balance sheet optimization, merger and integration costs, and the impacts of -- on provision expense related to acquired loans and actions taken to optimize the balance sheet.

如果您轉到幻燈片 7，正如 Andy 提到的那樣，我們報告本季度稀釋後每股收益為 0.57 美元，或者在對與收購相關的重要項目進行調整後每股收益為 1.20 美元。與 Union Bank 收購相關的值得注意的項目包括 3 個主要因素，這些因素導致每股收益減少 0.63 美元，這些因素與資產負債表優化、合併和整合成本有關，以及對與收購貸款相關的撥備費用的影響以及為優化資產負債表。

During the fourth quarter, the company recognized a onetime $399 million pretax loss on a net basis related to several actions taken to optimize the balance sheet, manage the net -- the interest rate volatility impact on capital levels and position the company for future growth. Subsequent to obtaining regulatory approval for the transaction, we entered into interest rate hedges to manage rate volatility and its related impact on regulatory capital from the date of approval through the closing of the transaction in December.

在第四季度，公司確認了一次 3.99 億美元的稅前淨虧損，這與為優化資產負債表、管理淨利率波動對資本水平和公司未來增長定位的影響有關。在交易獲得監管批准後，我們進行了利率對沖，以管理從批准之日到 12 月交易結束期間的利率波動及其對監管資本的相關影響。

During that time frame, long-term interest rates increased nearly 50 basis points before declining approximately 65 basis points. The interest rate swaps were terminated at the time of closing, and the losses recognized through earnings largely offset the interest rate marks recorded into the balance sheet through purchase accounting.

在此期間，長期利率上升了近 50 個基點，然後下降了約 65 個基點。利率互換在交割時終止，通過收益確認的損失在很大程度上抵消了通過購買會計記錄在資產負債表中的利率標記。

In addition, the company optimized its balance sheet by selling certain loans and repositioning its investment portfolio on certain equity investments. Within noninterest expenses, we incurred merger- and integration-related charges of $90 million that primarily included the impact of specific deal closing costs, professional services and employee-related expenses.

此外，公司通過出售某些貸款並將其投資組合重新定位在某些股權投資上，優化了資產負債表。在非利息支出中，我們產生了 9000 萬美元的合併和整合相關費用，主要包括特定交易完成成本、專業服務和員工相關費用的影響。

We also incurred a $791 million charge to the provision for credit losses, which reflects an initial provision impacted by the acquisition of $662 million and a net loss of $129 million related to the securitization of approximately $4 billion of legacy indirect auto loans. Again, these moves enabled us to more effectively position the balance sheet for profitable growth and optimize returns.

我們還為信貸損失準備金支付了 7.91 億美元，這反映了受 6.62 億美元收購影響的初始準備金和與約 40 億美元遺留間接汽車貸款證券化相關的 1.29 億美元淨虧損。同樣，這些舉措使我們能夠更有效地定位資產負債表以實現盈利增長並優化回報。

Slide 8 provides a more detailed earnings summary. Union Bank, which was included in our consolidated results for 1 month, contributed $302 million of revenue, $221 million of noninterest expenses, $81 million of operating income and $44 million of net income to the company, representing $0.03 per diluted share.

幻燈片 8 提供了更詳細的收益摘要。 Union Bank 被納入我們的綜合業績 1 個月，為公司貢獻了 3.02 億美元的收入、2.21 億美元的非利息費用、8100 萬美元的營業收入和 4400 萬美元的淨收入，相當於攤薄後每股 0.03 美元。

On Slide 9, end-of-period loans increased 13.3% on a linked-quarter basis to $388 billion, which included core loan growth and acquired loans from Union Bank. Union Bank contributed ending loan balances of $54 billion, net of purchase accounting adjustments, partly offset by a reduction in balances of $15 billion related to balance sheet optimization actions, including loan sales and securitizations.

在幻燈片 9 中，期末貸款環比增長 13.3% 至 3880 億美元，其中包括核心貸款增長和從聯合銀行獲得的貸款。聯合銀行貢獻了 540 億美元的期末貸款餘額，扣除購買會計調整，部分被與資產負債表優化行動相關的 150 億美元餘額減少所抵消，包括貸款銷售和證券化。

Slide 10 provides end-of-period deposit balance composition. End-of-period deposits increased 11.4% on a linked-quarter basis to $525 billion driven by the acquisition, which contributed $86 billion of lower-cost deposits and actions taken as a result of the deal to optimize our funding sources. On a core basis, we saw deposit balances decline slightly this quarter.

幻燈片 10 提供了期末存款餘額構成。在收購的推動下，期末存款環比增長 11.4% 至 5,250 億美元，其中貢獻了 860 億美元的低成本存款和因交易優化我們的資金來源而採取的行動。在核心基礎上，我們看到本季度存款餘額略有下降。

Turning to Slide 11. The investment securities portfolio grew 4.2% linked quarter to $170 billion. The addition of securities from Union Bank were offset by balance sheet optimization actions.

轉到幻燈片 11。投資證券組合環比增長 4.2%，達到 1700 億美元。聯合銀行證券的增加被資產負債表優化行動所抵消。

Slide 12 highlights revenue trends. Adjusted net revenue totaled $6.8 billion in the fourth quarter, which included revenue contribution of $302 million from Union Bank, primarily representing net interest income. For legacy U.S. Bancorp, net interest income grew 5.5% on a linked-quarter basis and 29.2% year-over-year, driven by strong earning asset growth and net interest margin expansion, which benefited from rising interest rates. Results were partially offset by higher deposit pricing and short-term borrowing costs.

幻燈片 12 突出顯示了收入趨勢。第四季度調整後淨收入總計 68 億美元，其中包括來自聯合銀行的 3.02 億美元收入貢獻，主要是淨利息收入。對於傳統的 U.S. Bancorp，淨利息收入環比增長 5.5%，同比增長 29.2%，這得益於強勁的盈利資產增長和淨息差擴張，這得益於利率上升。結果被較高的存款定價和短期借貸成本部分抵消。

Noninterest income, as adjusted for the legacy company, declined 3.0% compared to the third quarter, driven by seasonally lower payment service revenue and lower commercial product revenue, offset by stronger mortgage banking revenue. Year-over-year, legacy adjusted noninterest income declined 5.5%, driven by lower mortgage banking revenue from reduced refinancing activity and lower servicing charges, offset by stronger payment services revenue and trust and investment management fees.

經遺留公司調整後，非利息收入較第三季度下降 3.0%，這是受支付服務收入季節性下降和商業產品收入下降的推動，但被抵押銀行業務收入增長所抵消。與去年同期相比，遺留調整後的非利息收入下降了 5.5%，這是由於再融資活動減少和服務費用降低導致抵押貸款銀行收入下降，但被支付服務收入以及信託和投資管理費用增加所抵消。

Turning to Slide 13. Adjusted noninterest expense totaled $4.0 billion in the fourth quarter, including $221 million from Union Bank. Included in expenses was approximately $42 million of intangible amortization due to core deposit intangibles established at the time of the acquisition.

轉到幻燈片 13。第四季度調整後的非利息支出總計 40 億美元，其中包括聯合銀行的 2.21 億美元。由於收購時建立的核心存款無形資產，費用中包括約 4200 萬美元的無形資產攤銷。

Legacy noninterest expense, as adjusted, increased 3.8% on a linked-quarter basis, largely driven by higher compensation-related expenses as well as higher expenses related to professional services, marketing, technology and tax credit amortization.

調整後的遺留非利息支出環比增長 3.8%，這主要是由於與薪酬相關的支出增加，以及與專業服務、營銷、技術和稅收抵免攤銷相關的支出增加。

Slide 14 shows credit quality trends. We reported total net charge-offs for the quarter of $578 million. After adjusting for acquisition impacts and the balance sheet optimization activities, net charge-offs totaled $210 million or 23 -- 0.23% of average loans, up from 0.19% in the third quarter, which reflected the continuing normalization of credit losses.

幻燈片 14 顯示了信貸質量趨勢。我們報告本季度的淨沖銷總額為 5.78 億美元。在針對收購影響和資產負債表優化活動進行調整後，淨註銷總額為 2.1 億美元，占平均貸款的 0.23%，高於第三季度的 0.19%，這反映了信貸損失的持續正常化。

Nonperforming assets for the legacy bank increased slightly, while Union Bank contributed $329 million to the total. On a combined basis, the reported ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.26% at December 31 compared with 0.20% at September 30 and 0.28% a year ago, reflecting a continued strong credit quality.

傳統銀行的不良資產略有增加，而聯合銀行的不良資產總額為 3.29 億美元。綜合來看，截至 12 月 31 日，報告的不良資產與貸款和其他房地產的比率為 0.26%，而 9 月 30 日和一年前分別為 0.20% 和 0.28%，反映出信貸質量持續強勁。

The provision for credit losses was $1.19 billion, which included a provision of $791 million related to the acquisition and balance sheet optimization activities. This provision includes an initial provision impacted by the acquisition of $662 million and $129 million related to our balance sheet optimization activities. The allowance for credit losses as of December 31 totaled $7.4 billion or 1.91% of period-end loans, which reflects increased economic uncertainty and the incorporation of the Union Bank portfolio.

信貸損失準備金為 11.9 億美元，其中包括與收購和資產負債表優化活動相關的 7.91 億美元準備金。該準備金包括受收購 6.62 億美元影響的初始準備金和與我們的資產負債表優化活動相關的 1.29 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，信貸損失準備金總計 74 億美元，佔期末貸款的 1.91%，這反映出經濟不確定性增加以及聯合銀行投資組合的納入。

Slide 15 highlights the drivers of our linked-quarter common equity Tier 1 capital position. As of December 31, our CET1 capital ratio was 8.4%. Acquisition impacts of 180 basis points included an increase in goodwill and other intangible assets that reflected the impact of credit and interest rate marks, the initial provision for credit losses, balance sheet optimization actions as well as the increase in risk-weighted assets with the addition of Union Bank. These impacts were partially offset by an increase to equity related to shares issued to MUFG as part of the purchase price of Union Bank.

幻燈片 15 重點介紹了我們關聯季度普通股一級資本狀況的驅動因素。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的 CET1 資本比率為 8.4%。 180 個基點的收購影響包括反映信用和利率標記影響的商譽和其他無形資產的增加、信用損失的初始準備金、資產負債表優化行動以及風險加權資產的增加聯合銀行。這些影響被與作為 Union Bank 收購價格的一部分發行給 MUFG 的股票相關的權益增加所部分抵消。

Slide 16 provides our current expectations of certain financial metrics related to the transaction. The financial and strategic merits of the deal remain intact and are very attractive. Earnings per share accretion is now expected to be 8% to 9% in 2023, which is higher than originally estimated. While our tangible book value per share dilution is higher than initially estimated due to the significant impact of rising interest rates on the interest rate marks at close, our estimated earn-back period is only slightly longer than our original estimate at 2 years versus our original estimate of 1.5 years.

幻燈片 16 提供了我們目前對與交易相關的某些財務指標的預期。該交易的財務和戰略優勢保持不變，非常有吸引力。現在預計 2023 年每股收益增幅為 8% 至 9%，高於最初的估計。由於利率上升對收盤時利率標記的重大影響，我們每股攤薄的有形賬面價值高於最初估計，但我們估計的盈利回收期僅比我們最初估計的 2 年略長，而我們最初的估計是 2 年。估計 1.5 年。

Slide 17 provides a comparison of credit and net fair value marks from the time of our announcement to closing. Credit marks are lower due to favorable changes in portfolio composition and credit quality, partially offset by economic deterioration. Interest rate marks, inclusive of loans, securities net of sales and debt, are higher than anticipated at announcement due to higher interest rates, but we expect that to accrete quickly back through earnings.The core deposit intangible is also higher than originally estimated, reflecting the increased value of low cost -- lower-cost core deposits in a higher rate environment.

幻燈片 17 提供了從我們宣佈到結束時的信用和淨公允價值標記的比較。由於投資組合構成和信用質量的有利變化，信用評分較低，部分被經濟惡化所抵消。由於利率上升，利率標記（包括貸款、扣除銷售和債務的證券）高於公告時的預期，但我們預計這將通過收益迅速回升。核心存款無形資產也高於最初估計，反映低成本的增加價值——在高利率環境中的低成本核心存款。

I will now provide first quarter and full year 2023 forward-looking guidance, which is provided on Slide 18. Starting with the first quarter 2023 guidance, we expect average earning assets of between $605 billion and $610 billion in the first quarter and a net interest margin that is 5 to 10 basis points higher than the fourth quarter level. Total revenue is estimated to be in a range of $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion, including approximately $100 million of purchase accounting accretion during the quarter.

我現在將提供 2023 年第一季度和全年的前瞻性指導，如幻燈片 18 所示。從 2023 年第一季度的指導開始，我們預計第一季度的平均收益資產在 6050 億美元至 6100 億美元之間，淨利息利潤率比第四季度水平高出 5 到 10 個基點。總收入估計在 71 億美元至 73 億美元之間，其中包括本季度約 1 億美元的採購會計增長。

Total noninterest expense, as adjusted, is expected to be in the range of $4.3 billion to $4.4 billion, inclusive of approximately $125 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to Union Bank. Our income tax rate, as adjusted, is expected to be approximately 22% to 23% on a taxable-equivalent basis. We anticipate merger and integration charges of between $200 million and $250 million for the quarter.

調整後的非利息支出總額預計在 43 億美元至 44 億美元之間，其中包括約 1.25 億美元與聯合銀行相關的核心存款無形攤銷。經調整後，我們的所得稅率預計在應稅等值基礎上約為 22% 至 23%。我們預計本季度的合併和整合費用在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。

I will now provide guidance for the full year. For 2023, average earning assets are expected to be in the range of $610 billion to $620 billion with net interest margin expansion of between 5 to 10 basis points compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $29 billion to $31 billion, inclusive of between $350 million to $400 million of full year purchase accounting accretion.

我現在將提供全年的指導。到 2023 年，平均盈利資產預計在 6100 億美元至 6200 億美元之間，淨息差較 2022 年第四季度擴大 5 至 10 個基點。總收入預計在 29 美元之間億至 310 億美元，包括 3.5 億至 4 億美元的全年採購會計增長。

Total noninterest expense, as adjusted for the year, is expected to be in the range of $17 billion to $17.5 billion, inclusive of approximately $500 million of core deposit intangible amortization related to Union Bank. Our estimated full year income tax rate on a taxable-equivalent basis, as adjusted, will be approximately 22% to 23%. We expect to have $900 million to $1 billion of merger and integration charges in 2023.

經全年調整後，非利息支出總額預計在 170 億美元至 175 億美元之間，其中包括約 5 億美元與聯合銀行相關的核心存款無形攤銷。我們估計的全年所得稅率（經調整後）約為 22% 至 23%。我們預計 2023 年的合併和整合費用將達到 9 億至 10 億美元。

I will now hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

我現在將把它交還給 Andy，請他作結束語。

Thanks, Terry. We accomplished a lot this past year, including the completion of the Union Bank acquisition and a strong legacy PPNR growth supported by positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis. Union Bank adds significant scale to our business and deepens our commitment to serving customers and creating economic opportunities for communities across the West Coast.

謝謝，特里。過去一年，我們取得了很多成就，包括完成對聯合銀行的收購，以及在調整後的積極經營槓桿的支持下，傳統 PPNR 強勁增長。 Union Bank 顯著擴大了我們的業務規模，並深化了我們對服務客戶和為西海岸社區創造經濟機會的承諾。

We continue to target a Memorial Day weekend systems conversion, incorporating a lift-and-shift approach to our applications, which mitigates risk and allows us to more quickly capture meaningful cost synergies. There is still a tremendous amount of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and we are preparing for any scenario. I believe we will perform well because of the strength of our business, a strong balance sheet and the great team we have.

我們繼續以陣亡將士紀念日週末系統轉換為目標，將直接遷移方法納入我們的應用程序，從而降低風險並使我們能夠更快地獲得有意義的成本協同效應。仍然存在大量的經濟和地緣政治不確定性，我們正在為任何情況做準備。我相信，由於我們的業務實力、強大的資產負債表和我們擁有的優秀團隊，我們會表現出色。

As we've proven during previous economic downturns, our business model is resilient and recession-ready in large part due to our disciplined through-the-cycle credit underwriting standards and robust risk management infrastructure. Our consumer clients are predominantly prime, super prime, and our commercial book is generally investment-grade, and we have very little leverage lending commitments.

正如我們在之前的經濟衰退期間所證明的那樣，我們的業務模型具有彈性並且可以應對衰退，這在很大程度上歸功於我們嚴格的貫穿整個週期的信用承銷標準和強大的風險管理基礎設施。我們的消費者客戶主要是優質客戶，超級優質客戶，我們的商業賬戶通常是投資級的，而且我們的槓桿貸款承諾很少。

We are focused on prudent balance sheet growth, high-return, high-margin opportunities and the prudent allocation of capital to lines of business and products best served to deliver on our strategic objectives. Our growth strategy is focused on creating value for our customers, communities and shareholders, which allow us to generate industry-leading performance.

我們專注於審慎的資產負債表增長、高回報、高利潤機會，以及審慎地將資本分配給最有利於實現我們戰略目標的業務線和產品。我們的增長戰略專注於為我們的客戶、社區和股東創造價值，這使我們能夠產生行業領先的業績。

Let me close by saying thank you to our 77,000 employees across the company, including our newest colleagues from Union Bank. Your dedication and commitment are what make U.S. Bank special and the destination of choice for all the constituents we serve.

最後，我要感謝全公司的 77,000 名員工，包括我們來自聯合銀行的新同事。您的奉獻和承諾使 U.S. Bank 與眾不同，並成為我們服務的所有選民的首選目的地。

We'll now open up the call for Q&A.

我們現在將開啟問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And we can first go to Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們可以先和 Piper Sandler 一起去找 Scott Siefers。

Maybe a question for you. Just sort of at the top level, was hoping you could speak to what sort of balance sheet and capital management will look like for you. So you're still under $700 billion in assets, but any thought on sort of limiting growth? Or will there be additional sales or securitizations to help keep you under there?

也許有一個問題要問你。只是在頂層，希望你能談談什麼樣的資產負債表和資本管理對你來說會是什麼樣子。所以你的資產仍然低於 7000 億美元，但有沒有想過限制增長？還是會有額外的銷售或證券化來幫助你保持低位？

And then, I guess, on repurchase, I know we're on pause until we get back to the common equity Tier 1 target. But with the sort of looming category move-up, would there be any thought to hold off longer than that just to sort of see what happens? Just any thoughts on either of those would be great, please.

然後，我想，在回購時，我知道我們會暫停，直到我們回到普通股一級目標。但是隨著類別上升的迫在眉睫，是否有任何想法會比這更長時間地等待，看看會發生什麼？請就其中任何一個提出任何想法。

Scott, I'll start. This is Andy and Terry will add in. So first of all, we're not limiting growth in the company. We -- one of the reasons we positioned the balance sheet and took the optimization actions we talked about, Terry went through, was to allow for profitable growth. It also was related to the credit box that we manage within as well as the returns that some of those categories of assets that we securitized were returning. So those are all allowing us to grow in a profitable way in the future.

斯科特，我要開始了。這是 Andy 和 Terry 將加入。所以首先，我們不會限制公司的增長。我們 - 我們定位資產負債表並採取我們談到的優化行動的原因之一，特里經歷過，是為了實現盈利增長。它還與我們管理的信貸箱以及我們證券化的某些資產類別的回報有關。因此，這些都使我們能夠在未來以有利可圖的方式發展。

As we talked about before, we do not expect to cross the threshold of a Cat II until the earliest at the end of '24, and that's into the new category at that time. And if we have any further balance sheet optimization actions and securitizations, they would be very nominal and not material in nature.

正如我們之前談到的那樣，我們預計最早要到 24 年底才能跨過 Cat II 的門檻，而那是在那個時候進入新類別的。如果我們有任何進一步的資產負債表優化行動和證券化，它們將是非常名義上的而不是實質性的。

Terry, what would you add?

特里，你會添加什麼？

Yes. No, I would just again reiterate, we're ready to be able to adopt Category II by the end of 2024. But there's no real cap. We wouldn't expect any real significant balance sheet optimization from here. And we spent a lot of time positioning the balance sheet for growth as we go forward.

是的。不，我想再次重申，我們已準備好在 2024 年底之前採用 II 類。但沒有真正的上限。我們預計不會從這裡獲得任何真正重要的資產負債表優化。在我們前進的過程中，我們花了很多時間來定位資產負債表以實現增長。

Wonderful. And then just sort of thoughts on repurchase as well? I know we're on pause for now, but it's still sort of a question mark, so would be curious to your thoughts.

精彩的。然後還有關於回購的想法？我知道我們現在暫停了，但這仍然是一個問號，所以很想知道你的想法。

Yes, Scott. So as we've said in that, we continue to expect that -- we are starting about at a good spot, about 8.4% CET1. We expect that to accrete up to at or above 9% by the end of next year, and then continue to accrete in 2023 and continue to move up from that particular point.

是的，斯科特。因此，正如我們在那裡所說的那樣，我們繼續期望 - 我們從一個很好的位置開始，大約 8.4% CET1。我們預計到明年年底，這一比例將增加到 9% 或以上，然後在 2023 年繼續增加，並從那個特定點繼續上升。

So one of the things we'll do is once we get to above 9%, we'll have to make an assessment as to all the different things that are happening out there from a regulatory perspective. I mean you have the regulators looking at Basel III and are having to think about Category II and those sorts of things. But I think it's really going to be based upon what the landscape at that particular point in time looks like. But certainly, in terms of our core CET1, it will accrete nicely throughout 2023.

因此，我們要做的一件事是，一旦我們達到 9% 以上，我們就必須從監管的角度對那裡發生的所有不同事情進行評估。我的意思是你讓監管機構關注巴塞爾協議 III，並且不得不考慮第二類和類似的事情。但我認為這真的取決於那個特定時間點的情況。但可以肯定的是，就我們的核心 CET1 而言，它將在整個 2023 年獲得很好的積累。

Next, we can go to Erika Najarian with UBS.

接下來，我們可以和瑞銀一起去 Erika Najarian。

Thank you for all the detail that you gave us on the slides. My first question is on the cadence of the cost synergies as it relates to your expected Memorial Day weekend conversion. So first clarification question, the 35% cost synergies, is that a target for full year 2023? And what is that cadence like? Do we expect very little in cost synergies until Memorial Day weekend and then an acceleration in cost synergy capture as the systems converge?

感謝您在幻燈片上為我們提供的所有詳細信息。我的第一個問題是成本協同效應的節奏，因為它與您預期的陣亡將士紀念日週末轉換有關。那麼首先要澄清的問題是，35% 的成本協同效應是 2023 年全年的目標嗎？那節奏是什麼樣的？在陣亡將士紀念日週末之前，我們是否期望成本協同效應很小，然後隨著系統融合加速成本協同效應捕獲？

Yes, Erika, great question. And just to confirm, our expectation is that of the $900 million of cost synergies, we'll see about 35% of that next year in 2023. And so from a cadence standpoint, with the Memorial Day conversion, the vast majority of those cost synergies will start to really kick in subsequent to that system conversion. So smaller during the first half of the year, much more significant of that 35% in the second half of the year.

是的，埃里卡，好問題。確認一下，我們的預期是 9 億美元的成本協同效應，我們將在明年 2023 年看到其中的 35% 左右。因此，從節奏的角度來看，隨著陣亡將士紀念日的轉換，這些成本中的絕大部分在該系統轉換之後，協同效應將開始真正發揮作用。今年上半年如此之小，而下半年的 35% 則更為重要。

Got it. So the -- so in other words, we should anticipate an exit rate by 4Q '23 of well above 35%?

知道了。那麼 - 換句話說，我們應該預計 23 年第四季度的退出率將遠高於 35%？

Yes. By the time we get to the end of the fourth quarter, we will have incorporated the vast majority of the cost synergies such that by the time we get to 2024, we will be in a good position to have achieved 100%.

是的。到第四季度末時，我們將整合絕大部分成本協同效應，這樣到 2024 年，我們將有能力實現 100%。

Got it. And my follow-up question is on the economic outlook. If you could remind us what is being captured in the legacy U.S. Bank reserves in terms of the GDP outlook and the unemployment outlook. And how are you thinking, based on that outlook, charge-offs for legacy U.S. Bank would trend as we anticipate -- it seems like a lot of your peers are anticipating a mild recession from here.

知道了。我的後續問題是關於經濟前景。如果你能提醒我們，就 GDP 前景和失業前景而言，美國銀行的遺留儲備中包含了什麼。根據這一前景，您如何看待傳統美國銀行的沖銷趨勢將如我們預期的那樣——似乎您的許多同行都預計從這裡開始出現溫和的衰退。

Yes. I would say that our expectations are probably consistent with that sort of a thought process. When we are thinking about the reserve, our base case is that there is a mild recession probably in the second half of the year and that unemployment ticks up and GDP is either relatively flat or down a bit.

是的。我想說我們的期望可能與那種思考過程是一致的。當我們考慮準備金時，我們的基本假設是今年下半年可能出現溫和衰退，失業率上升，GDP 相對持平或略有下降。

When we go through the reserving process, as we've said in the past, we end up looking at 5 different potential scenarios all the way from a base case to a severe sort of recession. And I would say that from a reserving perspective, we're a little bit weighted towards that downside scenario, so a little bit more conservative.

正如我們過去所說，當我們完成準備金流程時，我們最終會考慮 5 種不同的潛在情景，從基本情景到嚴重的衰退。我想說的是，從保留的角度來看，我們對這種不利情況有點偏重，所以要保守一點。

From a charge-off perspective, our expectation, kind of using the baseline of about 23 basis points in the fourth quarter, that, that will continue to normalize throughout the year. We'll see both the delinquencies and charge-offs moving up. But to kind of give you some perspective, our pre-pandemic was at 50 basis points. We probably don't see that until sometime into 2024.

從沖銷的角度來看，我們的預期是，在第四季度使用約 23 個基點的基線，這將在全年繼續正常化。我們將看到拖欠和沖銷都在上升。但為了給你一些觀點，我們的大流行前是 50 個基點。我們可能要到 2024 年的某個時候才能看到這一點。

And next, we can go to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們可以與富國銀行證券公司的邁克梅奧會面。

I just wanted to clarify. So you made your positive operating leverage in 2022 over 200 basis points. If you back into the numbers, I'm getting positive operating leverage year-over-year all in of somewhere between, I don't know, 100 to 900 basis points. I'm not sure if that's correct. And if you back in the numbers, what do you get? And why the such big variance in the revenue guide? That's a $29 billion versus $31 billion. And why is the margin still increasing 5 to 10 basis points in the fourth quarter? That's a bit more of an improvement versus others.

我只是想澄清一下。因此，您在 2022 年將積極的經營槓桿提高了 200 個基點以上。如果你回到數字上，我將獲得積極的經營槓桿，年復一年，我不知道，100 到 900 個基點之間的某個地方。我不確定這是否正確。如果你回到數字，你會得到什麼？為什麼收入指南中存在如此大的差異？這是 290 億美元對 310 億美元。為什麼利潤率在第四季度仍然增加 5 到 10 個基點？與其他人相比，這是一個更大的進步。

So I'll start on a couple of things and then Terry will add in. So let me sort of go backwards on your questions. The margin is increasing principally because of the value of the low-cost deposits that Union Bank brings on. We talked about that a lot, Mike, and $85 billion of principally consumer low-cost, stable deposits in this environment is very valuable in driving up that margin on a quarterly basis. And that's reflected in that 5 to 10 basis points. We did achieve 230 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2020 -- hearing a little bit of background.

所以我將從幾件事開始，然後特里會補充。所以讓我倒退一下你的問題。利潤率的增加主要是因為聯合銀行帶來的低成本存款的價值。邁克，我們談了很多，在這種環境下，850 億美元的主要消費低成本、穩定存款對於按季度提高利潤率非常有價值。這反映在 5 到 10 個基點上。我們確實在 2020 年實現了 230 個基點的積極運營槓桿——聽取一些背景知識。

Mike, we're getting a little background. Can you mute your line? Thanks.

邁克，我們正在了解一些背景知識。你能把你的線路靜音嗎？謝謝。

We did achieve 230 basis points of positive operating leverage in '22. We would expect to achieve continued positive operating leverage into '23. But '23 is going to have the merger-related charges in it as well, so I'm looking at it on a core basis.

我們在 22 年確實實現了 230 個基點的正經營槓桿。我們希望在 23 年實現持續的積極經營槓桿。但 23 年也將包含與合併相關的費用，所以我在核心基礎上看待它。

And Terry, what would you add?

特里，你會補充什麼？

Yes, I just -- maybe kind of coming back to net interest margin, we expect to see a lift related to Union Bank coming on, that 5 to 10 basis points; and then from there, kind of flattish to maybe moderate increase or expansion in net interest margin through the rest of the year. But clearly, deposit betas and things like that are going to accelerate a bit in 2023.

是的，我只是 - 也許有點回到淨息差，我們預計會看到與聯合銀行相關的提振，即 5 到 10 個基點；然後從那裡開始，在今年餘下的時間裡，淨息差會持平或適度增長或擴張。但很明顯，存款貝塔和類似的事情將在 2023 年有所加速。

And as a follow-up, look, U.S. Bancorp had been a low-cost producer for a long time. It looks like you're going to trend back in that direction. So it sounds like you still have no change in expected synergies. I get it, Union Bank is performing better, and that's why the accretion you had brought higher, the 8% to 9%. But still no change in expected synergies from the acquisition?

作為後續行動，美國合眾銀行長期以來一直是一家低成本生產商。看起來你會朝著那個方向回歸。所以聽起來你的預期協同效應仍然沒有變化。我明白了，聯合銀行表現更好，這就是為什麼你帶來更高的增長，8% 到 9%。但收購帶來的預期協同效應仍然沒有變化嗎？

And then separate from that, Andy, you mentioned in December that the big kind of tech investment cycle is now turning positive versus being a drag the last 5-or-so years. If you could elaborate on that.

然後除此之外，安迪，你在 12 月提到，大型科技投資週期現在正在轉為積極，而不是過去 5 年左右的拖累。如果你能詳細說明一下。

Sure, Mike. And you're right, we still are projecting, as Terry went through, $900 million of cost savings, 35% in 2023, 100% fully implemented in 2024. Importantly, we have not, in the guidance that we provided, provided any revenue synergies. So it's without revenue synergies, which we think there are going to be some, particularly after the integration and conversion process.

當然，邁克。你是對的，我們仍然預計，正如特里經歷的那樣，將節省 9 億美元的成本，2023 年節省 35%，2024 年完全實施 100%。重要的是，在我們提供的指導中，我們沒有提供任何收入協同作用。所以它沒有收入協同效應，我們認為會有一些，特別是在整合和轉換過程之後。

We are past the heavy spend on tech. You're right, we're more of a flat line and starting to gain the benefits of that. And part of the benefit of this transaction is leveraging the investments we've made in the company over the last 3 or 4 years to allow us to lift and shift to our technology platform in a very low-cost way. So that benefit is driving through the synergies that we talk about.

我們已經過去了在技術上的大量支出。你是對的，我們更像是一條直線，並開始從中受益。這項交易的部分好處是利用我們在過去 3 或 4 年中對公司的投資，使我們能夠以非常低成本的方式提升和轉移到我們的技術平台。因此，這種好處正在推動我們談論的協同作用。

And now we'll go to John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

現在我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起去 John Pancari。

So on the credit metrics, I know you indicated that you're starting to see normalization in charge-offs and delinquencies. I want to see if you can elaborate a bit more. In what income cohorts are you seeing the normalization? We're hearing from some of the consumer finance players that they are seeing some normalization impacting -- or moving beyond just the non-prime and low income but into prime and super prime. And also what asset classes are you seeing the normalization most obviously? Is it just on the card side or in other asset classes?

所以關於信用指標，我知道你表示你開始看到沖銷和拖欠的正常化。我想看看你是否可以詳細說明一下。您在哪些收入群體中看到正常化？我們從一些消費金融業者那裡聽到，他們看到一些正常化影響——或者超越非優質和低收入，進入優質和超級優質。還有，您最明顯地看到哪些資產類別正在正常化？它只是在卡方面還是在其他資產類別中？

Yes, I mean I -- this is Terry. So maybe to address your first question in terms of where we're seeing it and maybe as kind of a reminder, from an underwriting perspective, we focus on prime, super prime really in all of our consumer portfolios. To the extent that we're seeing delinquencies starting to tick up, it's more so in the credit card space. And you're right, it would be probably on the lower bands as opposed to the upper bands at this particular point in time.

是的，我是說我——這是特里。因此，也許是為了解決您的第一個問題，即我們在哪裡看到它，也許作為一種提醒，從承保的角度來看，我們在所有消費者投資組合中都專注於優質、超級優質。在某種程度上，我們看到拖欠率開始上升，在信用卡領域更是如此。你是對的，在這個特定的時間點，它可能在較低的頻段而不是較高的頻段。

But one of the things we talked about is that when you look at savings or excess savings from a consumer perspective, they're fairly significant. That is coming down. As that's coming down, people are revolving more on their credit cards. And I think it's just kind of a natural progression that we are seeing. And again, starting more with the unsecured and the credit card portfolio, not as much with respect to the other portfolios yet. But as things continue to normalize, we would expect that too.

但我們談到的一件事是，當你從消費者的角度來看儲蓄或超額儲蓄時，它們相當重要。那正在下降。隨著這種情況的下降，人們更多地使用信用卡。我認為這只是我們看到的一種自然進展。同樣，更多地從無抵押和信用卡投資組合開始，而不是其他投資組合。但隨著事情繼續正常化，我們也希望如此。

Okay. Terry, that's helpful. And then I guess related, how does this development in consumer behavior and your macro assumptions as well, how does that impact your expectations for your payments revenue and your card revenue and merchant processing revenue as you look out through the year, considering the macro dynamics?

好的。特里，這很有幫助。然後我想相關的是，考慮到宏觀動態，消費者行為的這種發展以及您的宏觀假設如何影響您對全年支付收入、卡收入和商戶處理收入的預期？

Yes. So the payments revenue, as you saw, still is well above pre-COVID levels. The card spend is 25% above. On a year-over-year basis, we're plus 5%. So spend continues to be strong. The categories of spend are shifting a little bit. And we would expect continued strong spend, but moderating a bit as we go on to the rest of 2023 for the reasons that Terry mentioned. But still expect growth, but again, probably more moderate in nature as we go forward and the savings level start to normalize and the consumer behavior starts to change.

是的。因此，正如您所見，支付收入仍遠高於 COVID 之前的水平。卡消費在25%以上。與去年同期相比，我們增長了 5%。因此支出繼續強勁。支出類別正在發生一些變化。我們預計支出會持續強勁，但由於特里提到的原因，隨著我們進入 2023 年剩餘時間，支出會有所緩和。但仍然期待增長，但同樣，隨著我們前進，儲蓄水平開始正常化，消費者行為開始改變，增長可能會更加溫和。

Yes. And the thing that I would end up adding, John, is that one of the things we've talked about in the merchant processing is that we think that business is kind of a high single digits. And when we look at 2023, that's kind of our expectation for that particular business. Relative to 2022, we anticipate that our credit card revenue or card revenue will strengthen a bit in terms of year-over-year comparisons. And that is primarily because prepaid sales and prepaid revenue, which has been a drag, kind of starts to moderate.

是的。約翰，我最後要補充的是，我們在商家處理中談到的一件事是，我們認為業務是一種高個位數。當我們展望 2023 年時，這就是我們對該特定業務的期望。相對於 2022 年，我們預計我們的信用卡收入或卡收入將在同比比較方面有所增強。這主要是因為一直拖累的預付銷售額和預付收入開始放緩。

And then on the corporate payment card business, we continue to think that that's going to be reasonably strong, certainly high single digits, if not low double digits. And that's -- we're continuing to see travel and entertainment recover very nicely in that particular space. So we feel pretty good about the payment revenue trends for 2023.

然後在企業支付卡業務上，我們繼續認為這將是相當強勁的，如果不是低兩位數的話，肯定是高個位數。那就是——我們繼續看到旅遊和娛樂在那個特定領域恢復得非常好。因此，我們對 2023 年的支付收入趨勢感到非常滿意。

Next, we go to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行一起前往 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I just wanted to follow up one on credit. So you talked about consumer. Looking at the CRE slide, just if you don't mind talking -- sharing your perspective around the CRE book, if you're beginning to see any softening either in certain markets, maybe California or within the office CRE book, which is about 10% of loans.

我只是想跟進一個信用。所以你談到了消費者。看看 CRE 幻燈片，如果你不介意談論——分享你對 CRE 書的看法，如果你開始看到某些市場（可能是加利福尼亞）或辦公室 CRE 書內出現任何軟化，這是關於貸款的 10%。

Yes. I mean maybe at a high level, certainly from a CRE perspective, valuations, I think, are moderating to some extent. The areas that we have had probably the greatest focus on, if you will, is really office space. And that is really probably as much tied to return-to-office sort of behaviors or patterns. And I think that, that is probably a longer-term sort of structural adjustment that's going to end up happening. We're just going to have to watch it over time. But when we just kind of look at the core CRE portfolio, it continues to perform pretty well from a credit perspective at this particular point.

是的。我的意思是，也許在高水平上，當然從 CRE 的角度來看，我認為估值在某種程度上正在緩和。如果您願意的話，我們最關注的領域可能是真正的辦公空間。這真的可能與重返辦公室的行為或模式有很大關係。我認為，這可能是一種最終會發生的長期結構調整。隨著時間的推移，我們將不得不觀看它。但是，當我們只看一下核心 CRE 投資組合時，從信用的角度來看，它在這個特定點上繼續表現良好。

Got it. And I guess just one separate question around payments. When you think about -- in your slide, you mentioned about some of the tech investments and partnerships. Just give us a sense of -- remind us around competitive positioning for USB, how you're thinking about just market share outlook and from this partnership standpoint, like areas of like secular growth that you see in this business.

知道了。我想只有一個關於付款的單獨問題。當你考慮 - 在你的幻燈片中，你提到了一些技術投資和合作夥伴關係。只要給我們一個感覺——提醒我們圍繞 USB 的競爭定位，你是如何考慮市場份額前景的，從這種合作夥伴關係的角度來看，比如你在這個行業看到的長期增長領域。

Yes. As you mentioned, we've made a lot of investments in tech-led activity, and our tech-led investments have led to that being the principal area of growth for the merchant processing categories. And then on the card side, the partnership's component continues to be an important strength for us and a point of growth as we look forward. So those 2 areas, tech-led on merchant and partnerships on card, are doing well, and it's partly due to the investments we've made over the past few years.

是的。正如您所提到的，我們已經對以技術為主導的活動進行了大量投資，而我們以技術為主導的投資已使其成為商戶處理類別的主要增長領域。然後在卡片方面，合作夥伴關係的組成部分仍然是我們的重要力量，也是我們期待的增長點。因此，這兩個領域，以技術為主導的商家和合作夥伴關係，表現良好，部分原因是我們在過去幾年中所做的投資。

And is the strategy there to just build this in-house? Or do you see more kind of bolt-on acquisitions within that business?

是否有僅在內部構建的策略？還是您在該業務中看到了更多類型的補強收購？

Many of the investments we made are internal investments that we've developed our capabilities and our platforms to allow for different activities and allow for integration with some of the software that the company has used to run their business. We've added as well, as you know, miscellaneous M&A acquisitions that you said bolt-ons, like a talech or a Bento that add capabilities around the edges. I think we'll continue to do a little of both as we look forward.

我們進行的許多投資都是內部投資，我們已經開發了我們的能力和我們的平台，以允許不同的活動，並允許與公司用來運行其業務的一些軟件集成。如您所知，我們還添加了雜項併購收購，您說的是附加功能，例如 talech 或 Bento，它們在邊緣增加了功能。我認為我們會繼續做一些事情，因為我們期待。

And we can go to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們可以和 RBC 一起去 Gerard Cassidy。

Andy, Terry, congratulations on closing the deal. Question for you, Terry, on the balance sheet optimization where you guys decided to sell off certain loans that were required, can you give us some color on what types of credits were in those sales? And why would they chose -- I know they didn't meet your credit profile, but what was the driver of that -- I mean, some of the details of the credit profiles?

安迪，特里，恭喜你完成了交易。特里，關於資產負債表優化的問題，你們決定出售某些所需的貸款，你能給我們一些關於這些銷售中哪些類型的信貸的顏色嗎？為什麼他們會選擇——我知道他們不符合你的信用狀況，但驅動因素是什麼——我的意思是，信用狀況的一些細節？

Yes. Maybe as a starting point, when we thought about the balance sheet optimization, the things that we were thinking about is really repositioning the balance sheet to position ourselves for growth going forward, to be able to optimize or improve profitability and looking at profit margins across the various portfolios and returns and then the risk profile. So maybe from a risk profile perspective, we ended up looking at Union Bank portfolios that we ended up acquiring.

是的。也許作為一個起點，當我們考慮資產負債表優化時，我們正在考慮的事情實際上是重新定位資產負債表，為未來的增長定位我們自己，能夠優化或提高盈利能力，並著眼於整個利潤率各種投資組合和回報，然後是風險狀況。因此，也許從風險概況的角度來看，我們最終查看了我們最終收購的聯合銀行投資組合。

There were a couple of different areas that we focused on. One is that they had acquired a number of loans related -- or through a lending club channel, if you will. And that was something that we had planned to run off over time originally when we looked at the deal. And we made a decision that when we looked at the kind of the credit risk profile, how it's originated, et cetera, that we thought that taking care of that upfront made a lot of sense.

我們專注於幾個不同的領域。一個是他們獲得了一些相關的貸款——或者通過貸款俱樂部渠道，如果你願意的話。這是我們最初在考慮這筆交易時計劃隨著時間的推移而結束的事情。我們做出了一個決定，當我們查看信用風險狀況的類型、它的起源等等時，我們認為預先處理這些問題很有意義。

The other area that we ended up selling was some commercial real estate in their particular portfolios in order to be able to kind of bring that concentration down a bit. And then the other areas of optimization was more on the U.S. Bank side. We ended up looking at lower-margin, indirect auto loan portfolio. We securitized about $4 billion associated with that particular portfolio.

我們最終出售的另一個領域是他們特定投資組合中的一些商業房地產，以便能夠稍微降低這種集中度。然後其他優化領域更多是在美國銀行方面。我們最終研究了利潤率較低的間接汽車貸款組合。我們將與該特定投資組合相關的約 40 億美元證券化。

And then the other things that we ended up looking at in the C&I book of business and across kind of our corporate space is just relationships that maybe had lower returns associated with it, where we could optimize that. And so we allowed some of that to run off, so to speak, during the quarter. And those were the primary areas of focus with respect to the balance sheet optimization.

然後，我們最終在 C&I 業務手冊和我們的公司空間中看到的其他事情只是可能與它相關的回報較低的關係，我們可以在其中對其進行優化。因此，可以說，我們允許其中一些在本季度流失。這些是資產負債表優化的主要關注領域。

The last thing I would maybe say on the investment portfolio side is that we ended up selling about $15 billion of securities, the vast majority of that coming from Union Bank. And that was really to kind of -- think about it from an interest rate risk perspective, HTM perspective, et cetera. But that was the other area where we did some balance sheet optimization.

在投資組合方面，我可能要說的最後一件事是，我們最終出售了大約 150 億美元的證券，其中絕大部分來自聯合銀行。這真的有點——從利率風險的角度、HTM 的角度等等來考慮它。但那是我們進行資產負債表優化的另一個領域。

Terry, were there -- in the corporate loans, were there any shared relationships, meaning you had an exposure to XYZ company as the Union Bank and the total was maybe too much and you guys decided to take that down as well?

特里，在公司貸款中，是否存在任何共同關係，這意味著您作為聯合銀行對 XYZ 公司有風險敞口，總數可能太多了，你們也決定取消它嗎？

Yes, exactly. So maybe from a risk perspective, looking at hold levels or concentrations with respect to specific customers, yes, that was a part of the strategy.

對，就是這樣。因此，也許從風險的角度來看，查看特定客戶的持有水平或集中度，是的，這是該戰略的一部分。

Very good. And then just as a follow-up, you guys obviously gave us very good detail on your slides. And on the credit quality, Slide 14, you give us the breakout in the net charge-offs, and you show us the reported number of 64 bps versus your core legacy number of 23 basis points.

非常好。然後作為後續行動，你們顯然在幻燈片上向我們提供了非常詳細的信息。在信用質量方面，幻燈片 14，您向我們展示了淨沖銷的突破，並向我們展示了報告的 64 個基點與您的 23 個基點的核心遺留數字。

If I pull out the $189 million from the optimization, it looks like the net charge-off ratio is around 43 basis points, including the Union Bank numbers. Is that kind of the level we should kind of gear ourselves to for 2023 now that Union will be fully implemented into your business?

如果我從優化中取出 1.89 億美元，看起來淨註銷率約為 43 個基點，包括聯合銀行的數據。既然 Union 將全面實施到您的業務中，我們是否應該在 2023 年達到這種水平？

Yes, let me clarify. So it's 64 basis points on a reported basis, 23 basis points on a core basis. And there's 2 components to that core: the balance sheet securitization that I talked about that you articulated; but then under CECL, what you end up having to do is you have to recapture loans that they have charged off, you have to make an assessment. And then if you believe that, that charge-off was appropriate, you have to charge that off on day 1, so to speak. And there was about $173 million of charge-offs related to those -- to that kind of day 1 effect associated with CECL.

是的，讓我澄清一下。因此，報告基礎上為 64 個基點，核心基礎上為 23 個基點。這個核心有兩個組成部分：我談到的資產負債表證券化；但是在 CECL 下，你最終要做的是你必須收回他們已經取消的貸款，你必須進行評估。然後，如果您認為該沖銷是合適的，那麼您必須在第一天就沖銷，可以這麼說。與這些相關的費用約為 1.73 億美元——與 CECL 相關的那種第一天效應。

So there's really kind of 3 components, but 64 on a reported basis, 23 on a core basis. And when we think about going forward, I would use the 23 basis points as kind of the start point, and that's about $210 million worth of core charge-offs.

所以實際上有 3 個組件，但在報告的基礎上有 64 個，在核心基礎上有 23 個。當我們考慮前進時，我會使用 23 個基點作為起點，這大約是價值 2.1 億美元的核心沖銷。

And next, we can go to Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們可以和摩根士丹利一起去 Betsy Graseck。

Congratulations from my end, too. And the deck is super clear, really appreciate all the effort to make it simple and straightforward.

我也祝賀你。甲板非常清晰，非常感謝所有使其簡單明了的努力。

So a couple of questions for me. Just to follow up on the discussion we just had, could we also talk a little bit about how we should think about the reserving level as we go through '23 and into '24? Because like you said, you've got the fair value marks, you had to do the day, you had to do the add as per the CECL rules. So does reserve ratio stabilize from here? Does it actually inch down? Is there a scenario in which it would move higher? Could you just frame out how we should think about that?

所以有幾個問題要問我。只是為了跟進我們剛才的討論，我們能否也談談我們在經歷 23 年和進入 24 年時應該如何考慮準備金水平？因為就像你說的，你有公允價值標記，你必須在那天做，你必須按照 CECL 規則進行添加。那麼準備金率是否從這裡企穩？它真的一點點下降嗎？是否存在它會走高的情況？你能簡單地說明我們應該如何考慮這個問題嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, it is impacted by a lot of different things in terms of how economic uncertainty ends up changing and the mix of the portfolio, how it might change. But as we kind of think about 2023, I think that, that 191 basis points is probably a good -- is a good metric throughout the year. It might inch down a little bit. But I think that, by and large, we feel pretty comfortable with that as we think about 2023 based upon our kind of base case, so to speak.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，就經濟不確定性最終如何變化以及投資組合的組合以及它可能如何變化而言，它受到許多不同因素的影響。但當我們考慮 2023 年時，我認為 191 個基點可能是一個很好的——全年都是一個很好的指標。它可能會一點點下降。但我認為，總的來說，當我們根據我們的基本情況考慮 2023 年時，我們對此感到很舒服，可以這麼說。

Okay. And then I have one other question on the growth of the balance sheet. I know you addressed this a bit before. But when I look at the '23 guide versus 1Q '23, it's a slower growth rate than I think we're used to seeing at USB. So maybe you could help us understand, is this a moderated growth rate during the integration phase and maybe second half, that should accelerate up? Or is this the level of growth that we should anticipate?

好的。然後我還有一個關於資產負債表增長的問題。我知道你之前提到過這個問題。但是，當我查看 23 年指南與 23 年 1 季度的對比時，它的增長率比我認為我們在 USB 上看到的要慢。所以也許你可以幫助我們理解，這是整合階段和下半年的適度增長率，應該加速嗎？或者這是我們應該預期的增長水平？

And then if you don't mind, I have just a couple of ticky-tackies on the purchase accounting and the CDI and how we should expect that steps down into '23 and '24.

然後，如果你不介意的話，我在採購會計和 CDI 上有一些棘手的問題，以及我們應該如何預期它會進入 23 和 24 年。

Sure. Betsy, this is Andy. So first, on the growth rate, I think '22 had exceptional loan growth across many categories, led by commercial as well as CRE. So what we would see is that more normalizing. You're starting to see that in the fourth quarter.

當然。貝琪，這是安迪。因此，首先，關於增長率，我認為 22 年在商業和 CRE 的帶動下，許多類別的貸款增長都非常出色。所以我們會看到更多的正常化。你在第四季度開始看到這一點。

And I think the other fact is that the growth rates are impacted by average balances and some of the optimization activity that we took down in the fourth quarter. It was a partial quarter in the fourth quarter, full quarter in the first quarter and the rest of '23. But the principal driver is a function of loan demand, which is moderating a bit across most categories. So it's still growing, but a little less than what we saw in '22.

我認為另一個事實是增長率受到平均餘額和我們在第四季度取消的一些優化活動的影響。這是第四節的部分季度，第一節的完整季度和 23 年的剩餘時間。但主要驅動力是貸款需求的函數，在大多數類別中都略有緩和。所以它仍在增長，但比我們在 22 年看到的要少一些。

And then, Betsy, maybe related to your second question, which was around the recognition of the core deposit intangible over time, probably the way that I would think about it is that it's -- it will amortize into income over about a 10-year period. It will step down, and probably a good way of just modeling it is assuming kind of a sum-of-the-years digit sort of approach.

然後，Betsy，可能與你的第二個問題有關，這是關於隨著時間的推移對核心存款無形資產的確認，我可能會這樣想——它將在大約 10 年內攤銷到收入中時期。它會下降，並且可能只是建模它的一種好方法是假設一種年總和數字類型的方法。

And same thing for PAA? Or how should we think about that? I mean PAA, I know it's different, but do you think that PAA change...

PAA 也一樣嗎？或者我們應該如何考慮？我的意思是 PAA，我知道它是不同的，但你認為 PAA 會改變......

Yes. So that's tied, obviously, to the life of the loans. And it will end up being impacted by prepayments and all sorts of things. If you end up looking at their portfolio that we acquired, about half of it is residential mortgage and half of it is corporate and shorter term. So probably, if you ended up looking at an average life of 4, 5 years, 4 to 6 years, that sort of time frame, then of course, that will also accrete probably a little bit faster on the front end.

是的。所以，這顯然與貸款的期限有關。它最終會受到預付款和各種事情的影響。如果您最終查看我們收購的他們的投資組合，其中大約一半是住宅抵押貸款，其中一半是公司和短期抵押貸款。所以很可能，如果你最終看到平均壽命為 4、5 年、4 到 6 年，那種時間框架，那麼當然，它在前端的積累速度可能也會更快一些。

Next, we'll go to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將與摩根大通一起前往 Vivek Juneja。

Congratulations. A couple of questions. The tangible book value recovery, the crossover and the fact that you'd recover that back quickly, can you just give any color on sort of what's the key driver of that? Is it just simply earnings? Or is there something else underneath that also that's going to help that come back so quickly?

恭喜。幾個問題。有形的賬面價值恢復、交叉以及你會迅速恢復的事實，你能給出任何顏色來說明它的關鍵驅動因素是什麼嗎？僅僅是單純的收益嗎？還是在下面還有其他東西可以幫助它如此迅速地恢復？

Yes. It's principally the accretion effect that we're going to see with respect to Union Bank, the marks and the underlying earnings of the company.

是的。這主要是我們將在 Union Bank、公司的商標和基礎收益方面看到的增值效應。

Okay. So the -- because I just heard you say the accretion, the question that Betsy asked, the purchase at current accretion that half the loans are mortgages. So that will take -- come down, I guess, over more slowly? So is that part of it that prepurchase accounting accretion is going to stay high for longer?

好的。所以 - 因為我剛剛聽到你說增加，Betsy 提出的問題，購買當前增加的一半貸款是抵押貸款。所以這將需要 - 我猜，下降得更慢？那麼，預購會計增長的部分原因是否會在更長時間內保持高位？

Yes, no, I really think it's just -- it really is the kind of the 8% to 9% accretion levels that we're expecting...

是的，不，我真的認為這只是——它確實是我們預期的那種 8% 到 9% 的增生水平……

On the [EPS] side?

在 [EPS] 方面？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. Got it. Okay. A couple of other little ones. Deposits, the decline that you had in the balance sheet optimization, I think it's pretty sizable, $24 billion. Is it all UB? Or is it some of yours? And which types of deposits?

好的。知道了。好的。其他幾個小傢伙。存款，你在資產負債表優化方面的下降，我認為這是相當可觀的，240 億美元。都是UB嗎？或者是你的一些？哪些類型的存款？

Yes, it's a great question. From a deposit standpoint, when you think about kind of the optimization that we went through, we had kind of a focus on a couple of different things. We ended up looking at LCR ratios. We ended up looking at higher-cost deposits, whether that would be brokerage-type deposits or euro-dollar deposits, those sorts of things. We made a very conscious decision after getting regulatory approval to kind of reposition that.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。從存款的角度來看，當你考慮我們經歷的某種優化時，我們會關註一些不同的事情。我們最終查看了 LCR 比率。我們最終研究了成本較高的存款，無論是經紀類存款還是歐元美元存款，諸如此類。在獲得監管機構批准重新定位後，我們做出了一個非常有意識的決定。

On the Union Bank side, the one thing that I would point out is that there's about $8 billion to $9 billion worth of deposits that came over that were more transitionary. And over time, those will transition back to their global investment bank as those customers kind of migrate. So about half of that migrated in the fourth quarter, and I would expect probably the other half of that to migrate in early 2023.

在聯合銀行方面，我要指出的一件事是，價值約 80 億至 90 億美元的存款更具過渡性。隨著時間的推移，隨著這些客戶的遷移，這些公司將轉回其全球投資銀行。因此，其中大約一半在第四季度遷移，我預計另一半可能會在 2023 年初遷移。

But those are kind of the things we ended up looking at with respect to deposit and deposit flows. So it was really looking at trading out low-cost deposits -- or high-cost deposits for low-cost deposits that are coming over for Union Bank and then some of the Union Bank effect.

但這些是我們最終關注的關於存款和存款流量的事情。因此，它實際上是在考慮用低成本存款或高成本存款換取聯合銀行的低成本存款，然後是聯合銀行的一些效應。

And what was the OCI number at the end of the year? So as we think about where -- the going to Category II, how quickly do you expect that to come down so that you can be in better shape?

年底的 OCI 數字是多少？因此，當我們考慮在哪裡 - 進入第二類時，您希望這種情況多快下降以便您處於更好的狀態？

Yes. So OCI at the end of the year is about $8 billion, and the duration of the portfolio is a little over 5. So if you can kind of take a look at that, obviously, that's assuming that rates don't move from here. Our positioning from an investment portfolio perspective is about 52%, 53% HTM. We've also entered into some pay fixed swaps that in effect kind of get that up to the high 50s. So we feel like we're in a pretty good position to be able to deal with -- if rates move up a bit or if rates come down, we have some flexibility there as well. So we feel like we're in a pretty good spot.

是的。所以今年年底的 OCI 約為 80 億美元，投資組合的久期略高於 5。所以如果你能看一下，顯然，這是假設利率不會從這裡移動。從投資組合的角度來看，我們的定位是大約 52%，HTM 53%。我們還進行了一些薪酬固定掉期，實際上可以達到 50 多歲。所以我們覺得我們處於一個非常好的位置來處理——如果利率上升一點或者如果利率下降，我們也有一些靈活性。所以我們覺得我們處在一個非常好的位置。

And next, we can go to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們可以去德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Can you talk about the pace of the capital build from the 8.4% to around 9% by the end of the year? And then also, if the macro is worse than expected and you have to build reserves more, I realize that doesn't move the capital that much. But obviously, everyone else is starting at a higher point of capital, and there is focus on how quickly you can get to that 9% or even higher. So I guess the question is like, what levers can you pull? And kind of aren't that painful if you needed a little bit more, such as issuing preferreds or some other assets that you could kind of exit without hitting earnings that much?

你能談談到年底資本增長從 8.4% 到 9% 左右的速度嗎？然後，如果宏觀經濟比預期差，你必須建立更多的儲備，我意識到這並沒有那麼多地轉移資本。但很明顯，其他人都從更高的資本點開始，關注的焦點是你能多快達到 9% 甚至更高。所以我想問題是，你可以拉動什麼槓桿？如果你需要更多一點，比如發行優先股或其他一些你可以在不影響收益的情況下退出的資產，那不是那麼痛苦嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, Matt, from a balance sheet optimization perspective, we're going to be very focused on profitability, returns, and capital is precious. So we want to make sure that we are dedicating our resources from an asset growth perspective in the right spots.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，馬特，從資產負債表優化的角度來看，我們將非常關注盈利能力、回報，而資本是寶貴的。因此，我們希望確保我們從資產增長的角度將資源投入到正確的地方。

The pace of growth from 8.4% to a little above 9% by the end of 2023, it's fairly ratable across the 4 quarters. Obviously, first quarter is going to be a little bit lower simply because we will not have seen the cost synergies, and we will be going through and incurring more merger-related costs probably in the earlier part of the year simply because of the timing of the system conversion. So the pace is probably a little bit more weighted towards the back end. But that hopefully, Matt, kind of gives you some perspective.

到 2023 年底，增長率將從 8.4% 升至略高於 9%，這在四個季度中相當可觀。顯然，第一季度會稍微低一點，因為我們不會看到成本協同效應，而且我們可能會在今年早些時候經歷並產生更多與合併相關的成本，這僅僅是因為時機系統轉換。所以節奏可能更偏重於後端。但是，馬特，希望這能給你一些觀點。

Again, I'd kind of come back from a reserve point of view, we feel like we look at a lot of different scenarios. We look at the 5 different approaches, one of which is a severe recession. We take that into consideration. We could see unemployment move up to around 6%, 6.5%, and we still feel like we would be in a pretty good spot from a reserving point of view. So if it ends up getting -- if it ends up being at a level that's higher, then we'll have to kind of focus on other balance sheet optimization activity.

同樣，我會從保留的角度回來，我們覺得我們看到了很多不同的場景。我們研究了 5 種不同的方法，其中一種是嚴重的衰退。我們考慮到了這一點。我們可能會看到失業率上升到 6%、6.5% 左右，而且從儲備的角度來看，我們仍然覺得我們處於一個相當不錯的位置。因此，如果它最終得到 - 如果它最終處於更高的水平，那麼我們將不得不關注其他資產負債表優化活動。

And we'll go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Ken Usdin。

First question I just wanted to ask is just to follow on the outlook for the year, can you, Terry, walk us through just your underlying assumptions for kind of how NII just projects, if we just think about kind of the core business and in terms of what deposit costs and betas do and how that impacts the kind of underlying trajectory from this first -- from the fourth quarter of NII?

我只想問的第一個問題是關註今年的前景，特里，如果我們只考慮核心業務和在存款成本和 beta 的作用以及這如何影響從 NII 第四季度開始的潛在軌跡類型？

Yes. So obviously, net interest income is going to be driven by the earning asset growth that we have in here as well as the margin expansion. We expect that margin expansion to take place 5 to 10 basis points in the first quarter because of the Union -- full quarter kind of effect of Union Bank. And then again, our modeling is that the margin is reasonably moderates from there, reasonably flat, maybe up just a little bit.

是的。很明顯，淨利息收入將受到我們在這裡的盈利資產增長以及利潤率擴張的推動。我們預計第一季度利潤率將擴大 5 到 10 個基點，因為聯合銀行 - 聯合銀行的整個季度影響。再一次，我們的模型是，利潤率從那裡開始適度適度，相當平穩，也許只是一點點。

From a deposit point of view, clearly, deposit betas are going to accelerate. I think that's the reason why you'll see the moderation in terms of net interest income -- or net interest margin expansion in the second half of the year. But keep in mind -- and again, this is kind of -- we see that in the first quarter, the Union Bank effect associated with the value of those deposits that we're bringing on. And we'll continue to look at opportunities to kind of optimize the deposit portfolio.

從存款的角度來看，存款貝塔顯然會加速。我認為這就是為什麼你會看到下半年淨利息收入或淨息差擴張放緩的原因。但請記住——再一次，這有點——我們在第一季度看到，聯合銀行效應與我們帶來的那些存款的價值相關。我們將繼續尋找機會來優化存款組合。

Okay. And then just one follow-up on the deal impact. Can you just remind us what type of like amortization period you're using for both the purchase accounting accretion and the CDI in terms of like, is this the run rate that we keep around for a few years? Or does that change as you look past '23?

好的。然後只是對交易影響的後續行動。您能否提醒我們您在購買會計增值和 CDI 方面使用的類似攤銷期類型，這是我們保持幾年的運行率嗎？或者當你回顧過去的 23 年時，這種情況會發生變化嗎？

Well, I think that, again, in 2023, we expect the purchase accounting accretion to be $350 million to $400 million and the CDI to be about $500 million. As I mentioned earlier, I think on the CDI, it steps down over time. But if you use kind of a 10-year assumption and sum-of-years digits, I think that will get you, from a modeling perspective, pretty close to how I think it will end up amortizing off.

好吧，我再次認為，到 2023 年，我們預計採購會計增長將達到 3.5 億至 4 億美元，CDI 約為 5 億美元。正如我之前提到的，我認為在 CDI 上，它會隨著時間的推移而下降。但如果你使用某種 10 年的假設和年數總和，我認為從建模的角度來看，這會讓你非常接近我認為最終會攤銷的方式。

The purchase accounting is really going to be tied to the asset lives because about half of it is mortgage and half of it is corporate and commercial, et cetera, and shorter-lived assets. I think you can think about kind of that 4- to 5-year sort of time frame, and it probably accretes down into kind of a similar sort of fashion, a little more front-end weighted.

購買會計確實與資產壽命相關，因為其中大約一半是抵押貸款，一半是公司和商業資產，等等，以及壽命較短的資產。我認為你可以考慮那種 4 到 5 年的時間框架，它可能會累積成一種類似的時尚，更偏重於前端。

And next, we can go to Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer.

接下來，我們可以和 Oppenheimer 一起去 Chris Kotowski。

Following up a bit on Mike and Ken's questions. If I look at your very helpful Slide 18 on the guidance and I take the midpoint of the $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion revenue range and I kind of day weight that to the full year, I kind of get the lower range end of the full year guidance. $29.2 billion is actually what I get. So that implies like a couple percent growth in the back half of the year, which again, I guess, is better than what a lot of banks are saying. And I'm wondering, is that just underlying loan growth or fee income growth? Or is it the tag-ins of the benefits of rising rates? Or what do you see driving that?

跟進一下 Mike 和 Ken 的問題。如果我看一下您在指南中非常有用的幻燈片 18，我將 71 億美元到 73 億美元的收入範圍的中點作為全年的權重，我會得到全年的較低範圍結束指導。 292 億美元實際上是我得到的。所以這意味著今年下半年會有幾個百分點的增長，我想這又比許多銀行所說的要好。我想知道，這只是潛在的貸款增長還是費用收入增長？還是加息帶來的好處？或者你看到什麼驅動它？

Well, again, I think you do see kind of the full year effect associated with rising interest rates kind of come into play. Fee revenue, on a legacy basis, as an example, we should see a little bit more of a tailwind next year as opposed to what we experienced this year. So I think that those are kind of coming into play and then I think that's just a timing of being able to get cost synergies on the expense side.

好吧，我認為你確實看到了與利率上升相關的全年效應。例如，在遺留基礎上，收費收入與今年相比，明年我們應該會看到更多的順風。所以我認為這些正在發揮作用，然後我認為這只是能夠在費用方面獲得成本協同效應的時機。

Yes. And I'd add, it's probably just mathematically, as you were talking about, you're right. And it's a little bit of a growth in the earning asset that you see there going up from $605 billion to $610 billion to $610 billion to $620 billion, that's number one; and then maybe going towards the high end of that range in net interest margin versus the mid or low end in the early quarters.

是的。我想補充一點，這可能只是數學上的，正如你所說的，你是對的。你看到的盈利資產略有增長，從 6050 億美元到 6100 億美元到 6100 億美元到 6200 億美元，這是第一；然後可能會在淨息差範圍內接近該範圍的高端，而在早期季度則處於中端或低端。

Yes. Well, it's interesting because if I do the same analysis on the noninterest expense side, you're at the high end of that. So it implies kind of nice growth in pre-provision earnings through the course of the year. So -- but anyway, that's it for me.

是的。嗯，這很有趣，因為如果我在非利息支出方面做同樣的分析，你就處於高端。因此，這意味著今年全年撥備前收益的增長不錯。所以——但無論如何，對我來說就是這樣。

And our last question in queue will come from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們隊列中的最後一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

AOCI, was it, I'm just going to remember here, $12 billion, now it's $8 billion? And where is it as of today?

AOCI，是不是，我要記住，120 億美元，現在是 80 億美元？到今天它在哪裡？

OCI overall is at $10 billion at the end of the year and expect it to come down from there.

到今年年底，OCI 總體為 100 億美元，預計它會從那裡下降。

And at a lower level today, Mike.

在今天的較低級別上，邁克。

And then, Andy, just can you pull the lens back a little bit? It's been a rough 3, 5 and 10 years when you look at operating leverage and stock, not last year on the operating leverage. But that comment you made in December and you addressed briefly, but you've been in this investment cycle multi-years. And now you said that you're coming out of it or the drag is less or maybe the spending is less and the payoffs are more.

然後，安迪，你能把鏡頭往後拉一點嗎？當你查看運營槓桿和股票時，這是一個粗略的 3、5 和 10 年，而不是去年的運營槓桿。但是你在 12 月發表的評論和你簡短的講話，但你已經進入這個投資週期多年。現在你說你正在走出困境，或者阻力變小了，或者支出變少了，回報變多了。

Can you just give us more color on both the spending side and the payback side and where you've invested the most and where you expect that payback? Because it sounds like you're crossing a line based on your comments from December and that you reiterated today.

你能否在支出方面和回報方面以及你投資最多的地方以及你期望回報的地方給我們更多的顏色？因為根據您 12 月的評論和您今天重申的內容，聽起來您正在越界。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I think that's a fair representation. So we -- our spend levels on pure CapEx were -- grew from about $800 million to $900 million to $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion. And that growth has been in the run rate for the last couple of years. So you would not expect to see additional continued expense increase related to CapEx.

是的。謝謝，邁克。我認為這是一個公平的代表。因此，我們——我們在純資本支出上的支出水平——從大約 8 億美元增長到 9 億美元，再到 12 億美元，13 億美元。在過去的幾年裡，這種增長一直在運行。因此，您不會期望看到與資本支出相關的額外持續費用增加。

Importantly, we also migrated that spend from about 60% defensive to 60% offensive. So the spend is on activities like digital capabilities, reaching customers, products and services and so forth. So all of that is what's coming through right now. So a level set on the expense side plus a return on the investments from the revenue side, that, coupled with overlaying all that on the Union Bank customer base is why we're projecting the numbers that we're giving you.

重要的是，我們還將支出從大約 60% 的防禦性轉移到 60% 的進攻性。因此，支出用於數字功能、接觸客戶、產品和服務等活動。所以所有這些都是現在正在發生的事情。因此，在支出方面設定的水平加上收入方面的投資回報，再加上將所有這些都覆蓋在聯合銀行客戶群上，這就是我們預測我們給你的數字的原因。

We do have time for one more question, and we'll go to John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們確實還有時間再問一個問題，我們將去找 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups. So Terry, where does the balance sheet repositioning and the merger leave you in terms of interest rate positioning? How would you describe it here, fairly neutral, a little bit asset-sensitive, where are you ending up now?

只是幾個快速跟進。那麼特里，資產負債表重新定位和合併在利率定位方面給你留下了什麼？您如何在這裡描述它，相當中性，對資產有點敏感，您現在在哪裡結束？

Yes. I would say that legacy U.S. Bank is fairly neutral. When we add Union Bank on, it probably adds about 50 basis points of asset sensitivity in a 50 up sort of shock environment.

是的。我會說傳統的美國銀行是相當中立的。當我們加入 Union Bank 時，它可能會在 50 的震盪環境中增加大約 50 個基點的資產敏感度。

Okay. And then on the fee income, you said some more tailwinds this year, some helpers on legacy U.S. Bancorp. What are those on the fee income front? What are the helpers this year that you can grow fee income? Maybe just puts and takes on fees real quick.

好的。然後關於費用收入，你說今年有更多的順風，一些遺留的 U.S. Bancorp 的幫手。費用收入方面的那些是什麼？今年有哪些可以增加手續費收入的幫手？也許只是很快地投入和收取費用。

Yes. Well, if you just kind of look at the different components, I think the payments revenue continues to be reasonably strong. I think that the expectation is the market comes back a little bit in terms of investment income. But deposit service charges, we saw a drag in 2022 because of some pricing changes we implemented in May. That starts to dissipate.

是的。好吧，如果你只是看看不同的組成部分，我認為支付收入仍然相當強勁。我認為預期是市場在投資收益方面有所回升。但是存款服務費，我們在 2022 年看到了拖累，因為我們在 5 月份實施了一些定價變化。那開始消散。

So I think it will be kind of a combination of things, but probably one of the biggest ones is just mortgage banking revenue. That has been a pretty significant drag, especially on a year-over-year basis. And in the fourth quarter, we actually started to see that inflection point with the linked-quarter revenue starting to come up, and we would expect that to be a little bit stronger as we go into 2023.

所以我認為這將是多種因素的結合，但可能其中最大的因素之一就是抵押貸款銀行收入。這是一個相當大的拖累，尤其是與去年同期相比。在第四季度，我們實際上開始看到拐點，相關季度收入開始出現，我們預計隨著進入 2023 年，這種情況會更加強勁。

Okay. Got it. And then the last clarification. I think on reserves, you said the 1.9% ratio looks pretty good for this year. And even if unemployment went to 6%, 6.5%, you'd be okay?

好的。知道了。然後是最後的澄清。我認為在儲備方面，你說今年 1.9% 的比率看起來相當不錯。即使失業率上升到 6%、6.5%，你也沒事吧？

Yes. Again, we go through a lot of different scenarios, and we take that downside into consideration. And as part of kind of that weighted average process, we think 6%, 6.5% unemployment is already incorporated into our reserving process. So -- but again, it all is going to depend upon what ends up happening, how severe the economic recession is, if there is one at all. So I think there's just a lot of moving parts.

是的。同樣，我們經歷了很多不同的場景，並且我們考慮了這個缺點。作為加權平均過程的一部分，我們認為 6%、6.5% 的失業率已經納入我們的準備金過程。所以 - 但同樣，這一切都將取決於最終發生的事情，經濟衰退的嚴重程度，如果有的話。所以我認為只有很多活動部件。

And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn it back to George Andersen. Please continue.

我們現在沒有其他問題了。我現在把它轉回給喬治·安徒生。請繼續。

Thank you for listening to our call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

感謝您聆聽我們的電話。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係部。

And that does conclude today's conference. Thanks for your participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。