美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results by Andy Cecere, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 a.m. Central Time.

歡迎參加 U.S. Bancorp 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。在主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere 對結果進行審查後；副主席兼首席財務官 Terry Dolan 將舉行正式的問答環節。 （操作員說明）此通話將被記錄下來，並可從今天中部時間上午 11:00 開始重播。

I will now turn the call over to Jen Thompson, Head of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp. You may go ahead, Jen.

我現在將把電話轉給 U.S. Bancorp 公司財務和投資者關係主管 Jen Thompson。你可以繼續，Jen。

Thank you, Cheryl, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Terry Dolan, our Chief Financial Officer. During their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the slide presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，謝麗爾，大家早上好。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere；和我們的首席財務官 Terry Dolan。在他們準備好的演講中，安迪和特里將參考幻燈片演示。我們的網站 usbank.com 上提供了幻燈片演示的副本以及我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表。

I'd like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation in our press release and in our Form 10-K and subsequent reports on file with the SEC.

我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議中做出的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。可能對我們當前的前瞻性假設產生重大改變的因素在我們今天的新聞稿中的第 2 頁以及我們的 10-K 表格和隨後提交給 SEC 的報告中進行了描述。

I'll now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, Jen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Following our prepared remarks, Terry and I will take any questions you have.

謝謝，珍。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。在我們準備好的發言之後，特里和我會回答你的任何問題。

I'll begin on Slide 3. In the second quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.99, which included $0.10 per share of merger and integration charges related to the planned acquisition of MUFG Union Bank. Excluding these notable items, we reported earnings per share of $1.09. We achieved record net revenue this quarter totaling $6 billion.

我將從幻燈片 3 開始。第二季度，我們報告的每股收益為 0.99 美元，其中包括與計劃收購 MUFG Union Bank 相關的合併和整合費用每股 0.10 美元。不包括這些值得注意的項目，我們報告的每股收益為 1.09 美元。我們本季度實現了創紀錄的淨收入，總計 60 億美元。

Second quarter results were highlighted by strong revenue growth, driven by robust net interest income and fee revenue and stable credit quality. Revenue growth was driven by strong growth in earning assets and the benefit of rising rates as well as good underlying business activity and customer acquisition trends across our fee businesses.

在強勁的淨利息收入和費用收入以及穩定的信貸質量的推動下，強勁的收入增長突顯了第二季度的業績。收入增長是由盈利資產的強勁增長、利率上升的好處以及我們收費業務的良好基礎業務活動和客戶獲取趨勢推動的。

Additionally, our multiyear investments in digital payments and technology are paying off in the form of strong top line growth and enhanced efficiency. This quarter, we added $150 million to our loan loss reserve, reflecting strong loan growth and our consistent through-the-cycle approach to risk management. Our credit quality remains strong, and we are not seeing any trends in early-stage metrics that cause us concern.

此外，我們對數字支付和技術的多年投資正在以強勁的收入增長和提高效率的形式獲得回報。本季度，我們為貸款損失準備金增加了 1.5 億美元，反映了強勁的貸款增長和我們一貫的全週期風險管理方法。我們的信用質量依然強勁，我們沒有看到任何引起我們擔憂的早期指標趨勢。

At June 30, our CET1 capital ratio was 9.7%. Based on the results of the Federal Reserve's 2022 stress test that were published in June, we announced that we expect to be subject to a preliminary stress capital buffer of 2.5%, unchanged from the current level. We believe our industry-leading results demonstrate our ability to withstand a severe economic downturn, which is a testament to the strength, quality and diversity of our balance sheet and our prudent approach to managing risk.

6 月 30 日，我們的 CET1 資本比率為 9.7%。根據 6 月公佈的美聯儲 2022 年壓力測試結果，我們宣布預計將受到 2.5% 的初步壓力資本緩衝，與當前水平持平。我們相信，我們行業領先的業績表明我們有能力抵禦嚴重的經濟衰退，這證明了我們資產負債表的實力、質量和多樣性以及我們審慎的風險管理方法。

Slide 4 provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, our return on average assets was 1.16% and our return on average common equity was 15.3%. Our return on tangible common equity was 20.5% on a core basis. Slide 5 highlights digital trends in engagement.

幻燈片 4 提供了關鍵績效指標。不包括值得注意的項目，我們的平均資產回報率為 1.16%，我們的平均普通股回報率為 15.3%。在核心基礎上，我們的有形普通股回報率為 20.5%。幻燈片 5 突出了參與的數字趨勢。

I'll now turn to Slide 6. We believe our digital capabilities and our complete payments ecosystem are competitive advantages that will drive meaningful profit and return differentiation for our company over the next several years. Our state-of-the-art digital capabilities have not only created a more effective and valuable experience for our customers, but they have allowed us to expand our distribution reach beyond our physical infrastructure while optimizing our existing branch network.

我現在轉向幻燈片 6。我們相信我們的數字能力和我們完整的支付生態系統是競爭優勢，將在未來幾年為我們公司帶來有意義的利潤和回報差異化。我們最先進的數字能力不僅為我們的客戶創造了更有效和更有價值的體驗，而且使我們能夠將我們的分銷範圍擴展到我們的物理基礎設施之外，同時優化我們現有的分支機構網絡。

On the left side, you will see that the success we are having with our State Farm partnership, which is driving more customers, more loans and more deposits to our platform in a cost-effective way. The chart in the middle highlights the strong trends, the uptake of our talech point-of-sale functionality, which allows small business customers to manage their banking and payments needs in a simple, easy-to-use format that we provide in the form of a dashboard. And on the right, you'll see the momentum we are gaining in real-time payments transactions, which, through the midyear 2022, are 10x higher than the total number of transactions we saw for the entirety of 2020.

在左側，您將看到我們與 State Farm 合作所取得的成功，這以具有成本效益的方式為我們的平台帶來了更多的客戶、更多的貸款和更多的存款。中間的圖表突出顯示了強勁的趨勢，即我們的 talech 銷售點功能的採用，它允許小型企業客戶以我們在表格中提供的簡單、易於使用的格式管理他們的銀行業務和支付需求的儀表板。在右側，您會看到我們在實時支付交易中獲得的勢頭，到 2022 年年中，這比我們在 2020 年全年看到的交易總數高出 10 倍。

We are excited about the secular growth opportunities we see across all of our business lines, but I'd like -- but one area I'd like to highlight on Slide 7 is our business banking initiative, which is really starting to gain traction. On the left chart, you'll see that the opportunity we have previously discussed to connect our banking customers with our payments, products and services and our payments customers with our banking products and services.

我們對我們在所有業務線中看到的長期增長機會感到興奮，但我想 - 但我想在幻燈片 7 上強調的一個領域是我們的商業銀行計劃，它真的開始受到關注。在左邊的圖表中，您將看到我們之前討論過的機會，將我們的銀行客戶與我們的支付、產品和服務以及我們的支付客戶與我們的銀行產品和服務聯繫起來。

The chart on the right shows the progress we are making in growing accounts and expanding wallet share. Growth and relationships with both banking and payments products has meaningfully outpaced growth in total relationships over the past 12 months. And it's worth noting, we are still in the early innings.

右圖顯示了我們在增加賬戶和擴大錢包份額方面取得的進展。在過去 12 個月中，與銀行和支付產品的增長和關係明顯超過了總關係的增長。值得注意的是，我們仍處於早期階段。

Now let me turn the call over to Terry, who'll provide more detail on the quarter.

現在讓我把電話轉給特里，他將提供本季度的更多細節。

Thanks, Andy. If you turn to Slide 8, I'll start with a balance sheet review followed by a discussion of second quarter earnings trends. Average loans increased 3.6% compared to the first quarter, driven by a 6.9% growth in commercial loans, 4.1% growth in credit card and 3.6% growth in mortgage loans.

謝謝，安迪。如果您轉到幻燈片 8，我將從資產負債表審查開始，然後討論第二季度的盈利趨勢。受商業貸款增長 6.9%、信用卡增長 4.1% 和抵押貸款增長 3.6% 的推動，平均貸款較第一季度增長 3.6%。

Commercial loan growth reflected increased business activity and higher utilization rates across both large corporate and middle market portfolios. Pipelines are strong going into the third quarter, and working capital needs remain elevated.

商業貸款增長反映了大型企業和中型市場投資組合的業務活動增加和利用率提高。進入第三季度的管道強勁，營運資金需求仍然很高。

In the retail portfolio, we saw good growth in credit card balances, reflecting strong spending activity and typical seasonal trends. Purchase mortgage market share gains and lower prepayment activity continue to support residential mortgage balance growth.

在零售組合中，我們看到信用卡餘額增長良好，反映了強勁的消費活動和典型的季節性趨勢。購買抵押貸款市場份額的增加和較低的提前還款活動繼續支持住宅抵押貸款餘額的增長。

Turning to Slide 9. Total average deposits increased by 0.5% compared with the first quarter. Growth in interest-bearing deposits more than offset the impact of lower balances of noninterest-bearing deposits, reflecting the rising interest rate environment. Total average deposits increased by 6.4% compared with a year ago.

轉到幻燈片 9。平均存款總額與第一季度相比增長了 0.5%。計息存款的增長抵消了非計息存款餘額減少的影響，反映了利率上升的環境。平均存款總額較上年同期增加 6.4%。

Slide 10 shows credit quality trends, which continue to be strong across our loan portfolios. The ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.23% at June 30 compared with 0.25% at March 31 and 0.36% a year ago. Our second quarter net charge-off ratio of 0.20% improved slightly versus the first quarter level of 0.21% and was lower compared with the second quarter of 2021 level of 0.25%.

幻燈片 10 顯示了信貸質量趨勢，該趨勢在我們的貸款組合中繼續保持強勁。截至 6 月 30 日，不良資產與貸款和其他房地產的比率為 0.23%，而 3 月 31 日為 0.25%，一年前為 0.36%。我們第二季度 0.20% 的淨沖銷率與第一季度 0.21% 的水平相比略有改善，並且低於 2021 年第二季度的 0.25%。

Credit performance across our commercial and retail portfolios continues to be strong. On a linked quarter basis, both early and late-stage delinquencies decreased for the total portfolio. Our allowance for credit losses as of June 30 totaled $6.3 billion or 1.88% of period-end loans.

我們的商業和零售投資組合的信用表現繼續強勁。在關聯季度的基礎上，整個投資組合的早期和晚期拖欠均有所減少。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的信貸損失準備金總額為 63 億美元，佔期末貸款的 1.88%。

Slide 11 provides an earnings summary. In the second quarter, we reported $1.09 per diluted share, excluding $0.10 per share of merger and integration charges related to the planned acquisition of MUFG Union Bank.

幻燈片 11 提供了收益摘要。在第二季度，我們報告每股攤薄收益 1.09 美元，不包括與計劃收購 MUFG Union Bank 相關的合併和整合費用每股 0.10 美元。

Turning to Slide 12. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $3.5 billion, representing an 8.3% increase compared with the first quarter and a 9.5% increase from a year ago. Linked quarter growth was driven by strong earning asset growth and a 15 basis point increase in the net interest margin.

轉到幻燈片 12。按完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入總計 35 億美元，比第一季度增長 8.3%，比一年前增長 9.5%。強勁的盈利資產增長和淨息差增加 15 個基點推動了相關的季度增長。

Slide 13 highlights trends in noninterest income. Noninterest income grew 6.3% on a linked quarter basis but declined by 2.7% from a year ago as lower mortgage banking revenue more than offset strong performance in other fee businesses.

幻燈片 13 突出顯示了非利息收入的趨勢。非利息收入環比增長 6.3%，但同比下降 2.7%，因為抵押貸款銀行業務收入下降抵消了其他收費業務的強勁表現。

The decline in mortgage banking revenue primarily reflected lower refinancing activity in the market, which continues to pressure total application volumes and related gain on sale margins. In the second quarter, total payment fee revenue increased by 9.7% compared with the year earlier, reflecting strong underlying business trends, supported by investments we are making.

抵押貸款銀行業務收入的下降主要反映了市場上再融資活動的減少，這繼續對總申請量和相關的銷售利潤率產生壓力。第二季度，總支付費用收入同比增長 9.7%，反映了強勁的潛在業務趨勢，這得益於我們正在進行的投資。

Slide 14 provides linked quarter and year-over-year revenue growth trends for our 3 payments businesses. Because of the cyclical nature of our payments businesses, we believe year-over-year trends are a better indicator of underlying business performance in a normal environment.

幻燈片 14 提供了我們 3 種支付業務的相關季度和同比收入增長趨勢。由於我們支付業務的周期性，我們認為同比趨勢是正常環境下基本業務表現的更好指標。

Credit and debit card revenue increased 0.8% on a year-over-year basis as the impact of higher credit and debit card volume was offset by lower prepaid card activity. Excluding prepaid card revenue, credit and debit card revenue -- fee revenue would have increased 10.1% compared with the second quarter of 2021. Year-over-year credit and debit card revenue growth rates continue to be negatively impacted by the decline in prepaid card revenue as the benefit of government stimulus has dissipated.

由於信用卡和借記卡交易量增加的影響被預付卡活動減少所抵消，信用卡和借記卡收入同比增長 0.8%。不包括預付卡收入、信用卡和借記卡收入——費用收入將比 2021 年第二季度增長 10.1%。信用卡和借記卡收入同比增長率繼續受到預付卡下降的負面影響收入作為政府刺激措施的好處已經消散。

We provide detail on prepaid card revenue over the past 5 quarters in the upper right-hand quadrant. While prepaid card revenue is approaching a run rate on a linked quarter basis, it will impact year-over-year credit and debit card revenue comparisons through the end of 2022.

我們在右上角的象限中提供了過去 5 個季度的預付卡收入的詳細信息。雖然預付卡收入在相關季度基礎上接近運行率，但它將影響到 2022 年底的信用卡和借記卡收入同比比較。

The bottom half of the slide illustrates the strong year-over-year growth rates in both merchant processing and corporate payment fee revenue over the past last several quarters. While we expect the year-over-year growth rates to moderate from current levels, we continue to believe that both merchant processing and credit and corporate payment fee revenue can grow at a high single-digit pace on a year-over-year basis in a post-pandemic environment.

幻燈片的下半部分顯示了過去幾個季度商戶處理和企業支付費用收入的強勁同比增長。雖然我們預計同比增長率將從當前水平放緩，但我們仍然認為商戶處理、信貸和企業支付費用收入在大流行後的環境。

Slide 15 provides some additional information on our Payment Services businesses. On the right side of the slide, you can see there the strong momentum we are seeing in tech-led revenue growth within our merchant acquiring business.

幻燈片 15 提供了有關我們的支付服務業務的一些附加信息。在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到我們在商家收單業務中以技術為主導的收入增長勢頭強勁。

In the second quarter, tech-led merchant revenue, which accounted for 27% of the total merchant acquiring revenue was 13% higher than a year ago and 43% higher than the comparable 2019 period. A key to that trajectory is the strong growth we have seen in new tech-led partnerships. In the second quarter, new tech-led partnerships totaled 1.6x the number of new partnerships we acquired for the entire year of 2019, and we continue to add to that customer distribution baseline.

第二季度，技術主導的商戶收入佔商戶收單總收入的 27%，比去年同期增長 13%，比 2019 年同期增長 43%。這一軌蹟的一個關鍵是我們在以技術為主導的新合作夥伴關係中看到的強勁增長。在第二季度，以技術為主導的新合作夥伴總數是我們在 2019 年全年獲得的新合作夥伴數量的 1.6 倍，我們將繼續增加該客戶分佈基線。

Turning to Slide 16. Noninterest expense increased by 0.7% on a linked quarter basis, excluding merger and integration costs associated with the pending acquisition of Union Bank. The change in expense was driven by higher compensation expense, marketing and business development expense and other noninterest expenses, partially offset by lower employee benefit expense and other expense categories. The higher compensation expense was driven by the impact of seasonal merit increases and 1 additional day in the quarter as well as variable compensation tied to revenue growth.

轉到幻燈片 16。非利息費用在相關季度基礎上增加了 0.7%，不包括與未決收購聯合銀行相關的合併和整合成本。費用的變化是由較高的薪酬費用、營銷和業務發展費用以及其他非利息費用推動的，部分被較低的員工福利費用和其他費用類別所抵消。薪酬支出增加的原因是季節性績效增長和本季度增加 1 天的影響，以及與收入增長相關的可變薪酬。

Slide 17 highlights our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio at June 30 was 9.7%. As a reminder, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2021, we suspended our share buyback program due to the pending acquisition of Union Bank. After the closing of the acquisition, we expect to operate at a CET1 capital ratio of approximately 8.5%. We continue to expect that our share repurchase program will be deferred until our CET1 ratio reaches 9.0% following the pending deal close.

幻燈片 17 突出了我們的資本狀況。 6 月 30 日，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 9.7%。提醒一下，在 2021 年第三季度初，由於即將收購聯合銀行，我們暫停了股票回購計劃。收購完成後，我們預計 CET1 資本比率約為 8.5%。我們繼續預計我們的股票回購計劃將被推遲，直到我們的 CET1 比率在待定交易完成後達到 9.0%。

On Slide 18, I'll now provide some forward-looking guidance for U.S. Bank on a stand-alone basis. This guidance does not include any potential impact from Union Bank. Let me start with the full year 2022 guidance.

在幻燈片 18 上，我現在將單獨為美國銀行提供一些前瞻性指導。本指南不包括聯合銀行的任何潛在影響。讓我從 2022 年全年指導開始。

We have updated our interest rate expectations to be consistent with the market expectations. We continue to expect total net revenue to increase 5.6% compared with 2021. Given our revised interest rate assumptions, we now expect low to mid-teen growth in taxable equivalent net interest income compared with our previous estimate of 8% to 11%.

我們更新了利率預期以符合市場預期。與 2021 年相比，我們繼續預計總淨收入將增長 5.6%。鑑於我們修改後的利率假設，我們現在預計應稅等值淨利息收入的增長將低於我們之前估計的 8% 至 11%。

We expect higher rates to pressure mortgage application volumes more than previously anticipated, which will negatively impact our mortgage banking revenue. We now expect fee income to be slightly lower for the full year of 2022 compared with our previous expectation that fee revenue would be stable.

我們預計更高的利率對抵押貸款申請量的壓力將超過此前的預期，這將對我們的抵押貸款銀行業務收入產生負面影響。我們現在預計 2022 年全年的費用收入將略低於我們之前的預期，即費用收入將保持穩定。

We continue to expect positive operating leverage of at least 200 basis points in 2022, excluding the impact of merger and integration-related costs associated with the Union Bank transaction. For the full year of 2022, we expect our taxable equivalent tax rate to be approximately 22%.

我們繼續預計 2022 年至少有 200 個基點的正經營槓桿，不包括與聯合銀行交易相關的合併和整合相關成本的影響。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計我們的應稅等值稅率約為 22%。

Now I'll provide guidance for the third quarter. We expect total revenue to grow 3% to 5% on a linked quarter basis. In the third quarter, we expect linked quarter noninterest expense growth of 2.3%, excluding merger and integration-related costs, as we prepare for the Union Bank transaction.

現在我將為第三季度提供指導。我們預計總收入將在相關季度基礎上增長 3% 至 5%。在我們為聯合銀行交易做準備時，我們預計第三季度關聯季度非利息支出增長 2.3%，不包括合併和整合相關成本。

Credit quality remains strong. Over the next few quarters, we expect the net charge-off ratio to remain lower than historical levels but will continue to normalize over time. Adjustments to our loan loss reserve in the near term will primarily reflect loan growth and changes in the economic outlook.

信用質量依然強勁。在接下來的幾個季度，我們預計淨沖銷率將保持低於歷史水平，但隨著時間的推移將繼續正常化。近期對貸款損失準備金的調整將主要反映貸款增長和經濟前景的變化。

If you turn to Slide 19, I'll provide an update on our previously announced pending acquisition of Union Bank. In September of 2021, we announced that we had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the core regional banking franchise of MUFG Union Bank.

如果您轉到幻燈片 19，我將提供我們之前宣布的即將收購聯合銀行的最新消息。 2021 年 9 月，我們宣布已達成最終協議，以收購 MUFG Union Bank 的核心區域銀行業務。

We continue to make significant progress in planning for closing the deal in the second half of 2022 while we await regulatory approval. As you know, regulatory approvals are not within the company's control and may impact the timing of the closing of the deal.

在等待監管部門批准的同時，我們在計劃於 2022 年下半年完成交易方面繼續取得重大進展。如您所知，監管批准不在公司的控制範圍內，可能會影響交易完成的時間。

As a reminder, we expect to close on the deal approximately 45 days after being granted U.S. regulatory approval. Because this timing would likely indicate a late third quarter or early fourth quarter close, we believe it is prudent to shift the system conversion date to the first half of 2023.

提醒一下，我們預計將在獲得美國監管部門批准後約 45 天完成交易。由於此時間可能表明第三季度末或第四季度初收盤，我們認為將系統轉換日期移至 2023 年上半年是謹慎的。

The financial merits of the deal remain intact. Our original EPS accretion estimates are unchanged. And we continue to estimate the acquisition will generate an internal rate of return of approximately 20%, which is well above our cost of capital.

該交易的財務價值保持不變。我們最初的每股收益增長估計沒有改變。我們繼續估計此次收購將產生約 20% 的內部回報率，這遠高於我們的資本成本。

I'll hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

我會把它交還給 Andy 做結束語。

Thanks, Terry. Our second quarter results were supported by solid account growth, deepening of existing relationships and strong business activity across our banking and fee business lines, and we are well positioned as we head into the second half of the year. Credit quality remains strong, and we continue to prudently manage operating expenses even as we invest in our digital initiatives, our payments capabilities and in our technology modernization.

謝謝，特里。我們的第二季度業績受到穩健的賬戶增長、現有關係的深化以及我們銀行和收費業務線強勁的業務活動的支持，我們在進入下半年時處於有利地位。信用質量依然強勁，即使我們投資於我們的數字計劃、我們的支付能力和我們的技術現代化，我們也會繼續審慎地管理運營費用。

In closing, I'd like to thank our employees for all they do, and we look forward to welcoming Union Bank employees to our company. I remain confident in the strategic and financial merits of this transaction and the meaningful benefits that will accrue to our customers, our communities as well as our shareholders.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工所做的一切，我們期待著歡迎聯合銀行員工加入我們公司。我對此次交易的戰略和財務價值以及將為我們的客戶、我們的社區以及我們的股東帶來的有意義的利益仍然充滿信心。

We will now open up the call to Q&A.

我們現在將打開問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Apologies if I missed any of this in the prepared remarks, but -- so it was nice to see overall deposits up a bit. The mix is changing just a bit as you go forward, I guess. But maybe thoughts on major sort of what you would expect in overall deposit balances as we go forward, how the mix might change. And any thoughts on what you're seeing with pricing pressures on funding costs?

如果我在準備好的評論中遺漏了任何這些內容，我深表歉意，但是 - 所以很高興看到整體存款有所增加。我猜，隨著您的前進，組合正在發生一些變化。但是，隨著我們的發展，您可能會想到您對總體存款餘額的主要期望，以及組合可能會如何變化。您對融資成本的定價壓力有何看法？

Yes, Scott. Certainly, with the quantitative tightening that's taking place, I think the growth rates with respect to deposits in the industry will be relatively stable or maybe even down a little bit. But our expectation, at least in the near term, is that overall deposit balances will be fairly stable for us. We have a lot of sources of deposits, including our corporate trust and our -- the mix between our money market funds and our on-balance sheet.

是的，斯科特。當然，隨著量化緊縮的發生，我認為行業存款的增長率會相對穩定，甚至可能會下降一點。但我們的預期是，至少在短期內，我們的整體存款餘額將相當穩定。我們有很多存款來源，包括我們的企業信託以及我們的貨幣市場基金和資產負債表上的組合。

From a mix standpoint, as you would expect and what we have seen, both for us and in the industry, is that the mix starts to change when rates rise. And so we are starting to see the mix between noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing start to change, with a shift out of noninterest-bearing balances into interest-bearing sort of categories as people are looking on seeking sort of yield.

從混合的角度來看，正如您所期望的那樣，我們已經看到，對於我們和行業來說，當利率上升時，混合開始發生變化。因此，我們開始看到無息和有息之間的混合開始發生變化，隨著人們尋求某種收益，從無息餘額轉向有息類別。

And then when we think about deposit pricing, it's been relatively low for the first rate cycle or rate hikes that we have seen. And in fact, it's -- for us, we've actually outperformed our expectations, which is good to see and which is a reflection in part because we have a higher level of consumer balances today than we did, for example, 4 or 5 years ago, et cetera. But when we get into the next 125 basis points, so if you think about the next 2 rate hikes that the market is expecting, our expectation is deposit betas will probably be in that low to mid-30s, kind of in that ballpark.

然後當我們考慮存款定價時，我們看到的第一個加息週期或加息相對較低。事實上，對我們來說，我們實際上已經超出了我們的預期，這很高興看到這部分是因為我們今天的消費者余額比我們以前的水平更高，例如 4 或 5幾年前，等等。但是，當我們進入下一個 125 個基點時，如果您考慮市場預期的下兩次加息，我們的預期是存款貝塔值可能會在 30 多歲到 30 年代中期，有點像這樣。

Okay. That's terrific color, and I appreciate that. Maybe a separate question. Can you walk through any updated thoughts on sort of the capital ramifications from the pending transaction? I guess, just a lot has changed in terms of both possible credit and certainly rate environment. Just curious to hear any thoughts that you have, insofar as you're able to, given while it's still pending.

好的。這顏色太棒了，我很欣賞。也許是一個單獨的問題。您能否介紹一下關於未決交易的資本影響的最新想法？我想，在可能的信用和利率環境方面都發生了很大變化。只是好奇地想听聽你有什麼想法，只要你有能力，在它仍然懸而未決的時候給出。

Yes. I think that right now, the capital implications are in line, certainly, with a rising rate environment. The mark-to-market is a little bit more than what we maybe had modeled in the original deal. But once you close that transaction, it accretes back into income pretty fast.

是的。我認為，目前，資本影響當然與利率上升的環境一致。市價比我們在原始交易中可能建模的要多一點。但是一旦你完成了那筆交易，它很快就會重新增加收入。

Our expectation, as I said, is that CET1 will be somewhere around 8.5% at the time of closing. Of course, that will be dependent upon where rates are at that particular point in time. But the transaction accretes pretty quickly. So we do expect capital to continue to grow and accrete after the transaction. Andy, what would you add?

正如我所說，我們的預期是在收盤時 CET1 將在 8.5% 左右。當然，這將取決於該特定時間點的費率。但是交易增長很快。因此，我們確實預計交易後資本將繼續增長和增加。安迪，你會補充什麼？

The only thing I'd add, Terry, is that -- as you talked about in your comments, we're making significant process in planning for the closing of the deal, which we -- as we talked about, and now expect in the second half.

特里，我唯一要補充的是——正如你在評論中談到的那樣，我們正在製定重要的流程來計劃完成交易，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們現在期望在下半場。

We targeted a second half conversion last time we talked and now -- and it was going to be Veterans Day. Given now that we're coming upon a little later to close, we're moving the conversion date to President's Day weekend. So that's what our planning assumption is for all the teams working on this. That's that next 3-day weekend.

上次我們談話時我們的目標是下半年轉換，現在 - 這將是退伍軍人節。鑑於我們將在稍後關閉，我們將轉換日期移至總統日週末。這就是我們對所有致力於此的團隊的計劃假設。那就是下一個為期三天的周末。

And as Terry mentioned, our financial targets that we initially articulated are still intact. Although the timing of the cost savings might be a little different, the synergies are still $900 million. And Terry, maybe you can talk about, given the rate environment, the accretion dilution (inaudible).

正如特里所說，我們最初提出的財務目標仍然完好無損。儘管節省成本的時間可能會有所不同，但協同效應仍然是 9 億美元。特里，也許你可以談談，考慮到利率環境，吸積稀釋（聽不清）。

Yes. Again, the accretion, when you think about the earnings per share accretion, we still feel very comfortable with respect to the 6% accretion in 2023. A couple of different things.

是的。再次，增長，當您考慮每股收益增長時，我們仍然對 2023 年 6% 的增長感到非常滿意。一些不同的事情。

Obviously, the timing will affect our ability to achieve all of the cost synergies that we expected in 2023. And so of the $900 million that Andy talked about, our expectation is we'll probably achieve 50% to 60% of that next year. But what's offsetting that is, with the rising rate environment, we're going to see stronger revenue that will help to offset that.

顯然，時機將影響我們實現我們在 2023 年預期的所有成本協同效應的能力。因此，在安迪談到的 9 億美元中，我們預計明年我們可能會實現 50% 到 60%。但抵消這一點的是，隨著利率環境的上升，我們將看到更強勁的收入將有助於抵消這一點。

Our next question comes from John Pancari from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the payments revenues and the merchant revenue, I know you had indicated that you do expect those revenues on a year-over-year basis to moderate here, but that you see high single-digit year-over-year growth as reasonable post pandemic.

關於支付收入和商戶收入，我知道您曾表示，您確實預計這些收入同比將放緩，但您認為大流行後的高個位數同比增長是合理的.

So just to understand that a little more. In terms of the coming quarters, over the next several quarters, that moderation that you see, is that going to put you in that high single-digit range? Or do you expect growth to be lower than that high single-digit year-over-year range in coming quarters as payments volumes moderate?

所以只是為了多理解一點。就未來幾個季度而言，在接下來的幾個季度中，您所看到的這種溫和，是否會讓您處於高個位數的範圍內？或者，隨著支付量的放緩，您是否預計未來幾個季度的增長將低於高個位數的同比範圍？

Yes. So our expectation, when we get to more of a normal environment, is that payments would have the high single digits sort of growth rate. So it's a continuation of the business. The growth rates that we're talking about in terms of moderating year-over-year is really from the very high growth rates that we saw post pandemic as the cyclical recovery occurred. But think of payments in the single -- high single digits.

是的。因此，當我們進入更正常的環境時，我們的期望是支付將具有高個位數的增長率。所以這是業務的延續。我們所說的同比放緩的增長率實際上來自大流行後隨著周期性複蘇發生時我們看到的非常高的增長率。但是考慮一下單-高個位數的付款。

Okay. So -- got it. So then in the moderation, is there a way you can maybe help characterize what type of level do you think is reasonable in the coming quarters as the moderation takes hold?

好的。所以——明白了。那麼，在節制中，有沒有一種方法可以幫助您描述您認為隨著節制在未來幾個季度中合理的水平類型？

Yes. I think part of it -- in terms of moderating the growth rates, part of it is we'll start to see from '22 to '23 kind of getting into a more normal environment. So I think that it's still probably a little bit of a higher level when we think about the third quarter or in the near quarters. But certainly, as we get into 2023, I think it moderates to that high single digits.

是的。我認為部分原因——就減緩增長率而言，部分原因是我們將開始看到從 22 年到 23 年進入更正常的環境。所以我認為當我們考慮第三季度或近幾個季度時，它可能仍然有點高水平。但可以肯定的是，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我認為它會緩和到這麼高的個位數。

Okay. I got you. Got it. And then just on the credit front. Clearly, you guys are certainly in a more -- generally, historically, more conservative standpoint. How -- can you maybe talk a little bit more on how you're thinking about the loan loss reserve here, particularly from a CECL perspective?

好的。我接到你了。知道了。然後只是在信用方面。顯然，你們肯定處於更 - 一般來說，從歷史上看，更保守的立場。怎麼樣——你能不能多談談你是如何考慮這裡的貸款損失準備金的，特別是從 CECL 的角度來看？

As you're dialing in the scenarios, you have to assume the economic scenarios are going to get worse incrementally here given the Fed actions. So how do you see that impacting your reserving here, just from a scenario standpoint and given the CECL requirements?

當你在考慮情景時，你必須假設考慮到美聯儲的行動，經濟情景會逐漸變得更糟。那麼，僅從場景的角度並考慮到 CECL 要求，您如何看待這會影響您的保留？

Yes. Maybe as a reminder, when we end up looking at scenarios, we look at 5 different potential scenarios from a baseline to something that's slightly better to something that's worse and as severe, maybe as a more severe recession. So I think about that range.

是的。也許提醒一下，當我們最終查看情景時，我們會查看 5 種不同的潛在情景，從基線到稍微好一點的情況，再到更糟糕和同樣嚴重的情況，也許是更嚴重的衰退。所以我考慮了這個範圍。

For some time, there's been an uncertainty if you think about Ukraine now. And when we end up looking at the different economic and we weight those assumptions, we're really weighting to a little bit more of a downside scenario. Relative to that baseline, we are trying to take the economic situation into consideration.

一段時間以來，如果您現在想到烏克蘭，就會存在不確定性。當我們最終審視不同的經濟並對這些假設進行加權時，我們確實在考慮更多的下行情景。相對於該基線，我們正試圖將經濟形勢考慮在內。

So I feel like we're in a pretty good spot in terms of how we are thinking about it. And what I would say, John, is that, at least in the near term, think about the second half of this year, growth in -- or changes, I think, in the loan loss reserve will probably be driven more by loan growth than anything else.

所以我覺得就我們的思考方式而言，我們處於一個非常好的位置。約翰，我想說的是，至少在短期內，想想今年下半年，我認為貸款損失準備金的增長或變化可能更多地受到貸款增長的推動比什麼都重要。

Okay. Got it. So you don't necessarily, over the next couple of quarters, see an outright build related to the economic backdrop based upon the forecast that you're looking at now?

好的。知道了。因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，您不一定會根據您現在正在查看的預測看到與經濟背景相關的直接增長？

I think it will be more driven by loan growth than our scenarios' weightings getting worse, at least not measurably worse.

我認為這將更多地受到貸款增長的推動，而不是我們情景的權重變得更糟，至少不會明顯更糟。

Okay. Got it. Right, right. Okay. And then 1 more related to that. I guess, just as economic scenarios do intensify, and you think -- if a build does begin to moderate, I mean, any way to just longer term help us think about the magnitude?

好的。知道了。是的是的。好的。然後還有 1 個與此相關。我想，正如經濟形勢確實在加劇，你認為——如果建設確實開始放緩，我的意思是，有什麼方法可以幫助我們考慮規模？

I mean, we just had another -- one of your competitors talked about how the pandemic-related reserve levels may not be applicable to where the banks built the pandemic-related reserves to. Would you agree with that, that the pandemic-related reserve levels were probably overly draconian?

我的意思是，我們剛剛有另一個——你的一個競爭對手談到了與大流行相關的準備金水平可能不適用於銀行將大流行相關準備金建立到的地方。您是否同意與大流行相關的儲備水平可能過於嚴厲？

Yes. It was -- as you kind of went through the pandemic, it was hard to know exactly where the economy was going. So I do think that the level of reserve builds were pretty aggressive, and rightfully so at that particular point in time based upon what we knew.

是的。那是——當你經歷了大流行時，很難確切地知道經濟的走向。所以我確實認為儲備建設的水平非常激進，根據我們所知道的，在那個特定的時間點是正確的。

I think that, as we see the next economic recession kind of develop, again, John, we try to manage through the cycle. And our underwriting is strong and all those sorts of things. So while there will be reserve build certainly from an economic outlook point of view, I don't think it's going to be anywhere near what it was as a result of the pandemic.

我認為，當我們看到下一次經濟衰退正在發展時，約翰，我們再次嘗試管理這個週期。我們的承保能力很強，諸如此類。因此，儘管從經濟前景的角度來看，儲備肯定會有所增加，但我認為不會像大流行造成的那樣接近。

Our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Terry, to follow up on credit quality, can you share with us -- certainly, I'm with you, I don't see the reserves needing ever to get close to what you guys had to do during the pandemic when unemployment went to 14.5%, and we had an annualized rate of decline in the second quarter GDP in 2020 of over 35%. But can you share with us, in the rate stress testing for your commercial customers or anybody on variable rate loans, at what point do rising rates really start to give you guys a little discomfort? Is it at 200 or 300 basis points higher? Any color there?

特里，為了跟進信用質量，你能和我們分享一下嗎——當然，我和你在一起，我認為儲備金永遠不需要接近你們在大流行期間失業率上升時必須做的事情14.5%，我們預計 2020 年第二季度 GDP 的年化降幅超過 35%。但是你能和我們分享一下，在對你的商業客戶或任何浮動利率貸款的人進行利率壓力測試時，利率上升到什麼時候才真正開始給你們帶來一點不適？是高出 200 還是 300 個基點？那裡有顏色嗎？

Yes. I don't know if we have a...

是的。不知道我們有沒有...

I think what drives loan activity more than anything is the economic growth and GDP. And I think from a rate scenario standpoint, in terms of credit risk, if you think about the defense side, Gerard, I think we underwrite to a higher rate environment for variable rate loans. So I think we've already taken that into account.

我認為最能推動貸款活動的是經濟增長和 GDP。我認為從利率情景的角度來看，就信用風險而言，如果你考慮防守方，杰拉德，我認為我們為浮動利率貸款提供了更高利率的環境。所以我認為我們已經考慮到了這一點。

And we look at cash flows under different rate scenarios as we think about putting those loans on the book. So we're less -- I'm less concerned about rising rates impacting credit. I do think rising rates, as that impacts the economy, will impact loan growth at some point.

當我們考慮將這些貸款記入賬簿時，我們會查看不同利率情景下的現金流。所以我們不那麼擔心——我不太擔心利率上升會影響信貸。我確實認為利率上升會影響經濟，在某些時候會影響貸款增長。

No. Okay. Very fair. And then, I guess, as a follow-up, sticking with credit, it seems like in past cycles, excluding 2020, there was a gradual lead into the downturns. And we -- I think many of us could have seen what was going on in the aggressive lending of '06 going into '08, '09 or '88, '89 going into '90. We don't seem to have that this time.

不，好的。很公平。然後，我想，作為堅持信貸的後續行動，似乎在過去的周期中，不包括 2020 年，逐漸進入衰退。而且我們 - 我認為我們中的許多人都可以看到 06 年到 08 年、09 年或 88 年、89 年到 90 年的激進貸款正在發生什麼。這次我們好像沒有了。

So can you guys -- I don't know if you can give us any further color on what is it that the market is so -- seems like so concerned about, what, banks that were going to hit a brick wall or go off a cliff on credit possibly in 6 to 12 months. Any further thoughts there?

所以你們能不能——我不知道你們能否給我們任何關於市場是什麼的進一步的顏色——似乎很擔心，什麼，銀行會撞到磚牆或倒閉可能在 6 到 12 個月內出現信貸斷崖式下跌。有什麼進一步的想法嗎？

Yes. I do think it's the -- banks are a reflection of all the customers that we serve. And to the extent the recession impacts those customers, that will impact us. And I think that's why you're seeing bank stocks. Usually, when rates go up, bank stocks outperform. Bank rates -- we've been waiting for a while for rates to go up. They're probably going up and bank stocks are going the other way. And I think it's that fear of recession, for all the reasons we've talked about.

是的。我確實認為這是——銀行反映了我們所服務的所有客戶。在經濟衰退影響這些客戶的程度上，這將影響我們。我認為這就是你看到銀行股的原因。通常，當利率上升時，銀行股會跑贏大盤。銀行利率——我們一直在等待利率上升。它們可能正在上漲，而銀行股則相反。而且我認為這是對經濟衰退的恐懼，出於我們已經談到的所有原因。

And as I've talked about, Gerard, I think we are preparing for any scenario. Because the range of scenarios, and I talked about this before, it's as wide as I've ever seen it in my career. The probability of different events occurring, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, a lot of inputs into things that we've never had before. And I think all that uncertainty just translates into people being careful and a little prudent in terms of their investments.

正如我所說，杰拉德，我認為我們正在為任何情況做準備。因為場景的範圍，我之前談到過，它是我職業生涯中見過的最廣泛的。不同事件發生的概率，有很多不確定性，有很多我們以前從未有過的輸入。我認為所有這些不確定性只會轉化為人們在投資方面要小心謹慎。

And with that, are your customers seeing any clear evidence of the slowdown from the tightening that's already gone on? Or is it still -- are the customers still in pretty good shape in terms of their businesses, generally speaking?

有了這個，您的客戶是否看到任何明顯的證據表明已經開始的緊縮政策會放緩？或者它仍然是 - 一般來說，客戶在他們的業務方面仍然處於相當好的狀態？

Yes. Maybe a couple of different things that certainly we watch. I mean from a consumer spend standpoint, it continues to be very strong. From a -- and that, obviously, is what businesses are seeing now that consumer spend is shifting a bit in terms of where it's occurring. It's less discretionary, certainly more nondiscretionary on food and fuel and those types of things. It is probably shifting away from a lot of the retail purchases toward service-related type of activities. But the overall level of spend is still pretty strong.

是的。也許我們肯定會看到一些不同的東西。我的意思是從消費者支出的角度來看，它仍然非常強勁。從一個 - 很明顯，企業現在看到的是消費者支出在發生的地方發生了一些變化。在食物和燃料以及那些類型的事情上，它不那麼隨意，當然更隨意。它可能正在從大量零售購買轉向與服務相關的活動。但總體支出水平仍然相當強勁。

I would also say that the consumer balance sheet is strong. They still have deposit balances that are in excess of where they were pre-pandemic. I think that, in part, that's allowing, at least on the average, for that consumer to spend -- to continue. And then they're willing to draw down on their credit card lines as well.

我還要說消費者資產負債表很強勁。他們的存款餘額仍然超過大流行前的水平。我認為，至少在平均水平上，這在一定程度上允許該消費者繼續消費。然後他們也願意減少他們的信用卡額度。

On the business side, the way that I would characterize it, as we're continuing to see inventory builds, I think that part of the loan growth that we're seeing or experiencing, maybe businesses trying to get ahead of inflation a bit in terms of acquiring inventory today as opposed to something that might have a 10%, 20%, 30% rate increase. The one thing I would say though, Gerard, is that I think that business owners, especially in the middle market space, are just more cautious today.

在業務方面，我將描述它的方式，因為我們繼續看到庫存增加，我認為我們正在看到或經歷的部分貸款增長，也許是企業試圖在通脹之前領先一點今天獲取庫存的條件，而不是可能有 10%、20%、30% 的利率增長。不過，杰拉德，我想說的一件事是，我認為企業主，特別是在中間市場領域，今天更加謹慎。

And it comes back to what Andy said, it seems like a strong economy today, but the range of possibilities is very wide. And so people are trying to take that into consideration when they think about running their business.

回到安迪所說的，今天的經濟似乎很強勁，但可能性的範圍非常廣泛。因此，人們在考慮經營業務時會嘗試考慮到這一點。

Good luck on closing the deal in the second half.

祝下半場交易順利。

Thanks, Gerard. Appreciate it.

謝謝，杰拉德。欣賞它。

Our next question comes from Erika Najarian from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Just a new clarification questions for my first one. Terry, you mentioned that deposit beta could be in the low to mid-30s for the next 125. Can we interpret that in terms of the cumulative beta by fourth quarter? Does that mean that will be the cumulative beta by the fourth quarter? Or does that mean that the cumulative beta would be lower than that range by fourth quarter because we have to take into account the first 100?

我的第一個問題只是一個新的澄清問題。特里，您提到下一個 125 年的存款貝塔值可能在 30 到 30 年代中期。我們可以根據第四季度的累積貝塔值來解釋嗎？這是否意味著這將是第四季度的累積測試版？或者這是否意味著到第四季度累積貝塔值將低於該範圍，因為我們必須考慮前 100 個？

It would be lower. I mean, the average obviously will be less. So what I'm really talking about is the next 2 rate hikes and what we would see in terms of deposit betas in reaction to that. So...

它會更低。我的意思是，平均值顯然會更少。所以我真正在談論的是接下來的兩次加息，以及我們將看到的存款貝塔值對此作出反應。所以...

Got it. I'm just comparing it to a peer that reported also today. I think they mentioned that the cumulative beta would be in the low 30s by year-end. And it sounds like, based on the math, you could outperform that.

知道了。我只是將它與今天也報導的同行進行比較。我認為他們提到到年底累積 beta 將處於 30 多歲的低位。聽起來，根據數學，你可以超越它。

Certainly, in terms of what we are experiencing, the deposit betas in the first rate hikes has been lower than what we had expected. I think from just in terms of the industry and where we were starting from the betas for us, at least, have been lower.

當然，就我們所經歷的而言，第一次加息中的存款貝塔值低於我們的預期。我認為從行業和我們從 beta 開始的地方來看，至少，我們的 beta 較低。

Got it. Okay. And Andy, maybe taking a step back and asking more of an industry question. Clearly, the market is very worried about a recession. And clearly, the market accepts that U.S. Bank has one of the best quality balance sheets out there. The bank has spent a lot of time building their corporate market share.

知道了。好的。 Andy，也許會退後一步，問更多的行業問題。顯然，市場非常擔心經濟衰退。顯然，市場承認美國銀行擁有最優質的資產負債表之一。該銀行花費了大量時間來建立自己的企業市場份額。

I guess my first question to you is, as you think about the relative resilience of banks potentially in a recession, like Gerard alluded to, and the amount of sort of lost market share to nonbanks, do you see some of that coming back to -- that market share coming back to the industry generally and U.S. Bank specifically? Or was some of that credit quality never something that you wanted to underwrite and put on the books to begin with?

我想我對你的第一個問題是，當你考慮到銀行在衰退中的相對彈性時，就像 Gerard 所暗示的那樣，以及非銀行機構失去的市場份額的數量，你認為其中一些會回到 - - 市場份額普遍回歸行業，特別是美國銀行？還是您從一開始就不想承保並記入賬簿上的某些信用質量？

It's a good question, Erika. I think there is a little bit of a shift already occurring and what you're seeing in some of the nonbank competitors. First of all, the banking industry is in terrific shape from a capital liquidity, just from a defensive standpoint, much better than we were during the last downturn, and that includes U.S. Bank. And you saw our results of the stress test, which showed us performing very well in a very stressful environment. And I think that's a reflection of all those things, including our diversity in our credit underwriting discipline.

這是個好問題，埃里卡。我認為已經發生了一些轉變，你在一些非銀行競爭對手身上看到了這種情況。首先，從資本流動性來看，銀行業的狀況非常好，僅從防禦的角度來看，比我們在上一次經濟衰退期間要好得多，其中包括美國銀行。你看到了我們的壓力測試結果，這表明我們在壓力很大的環境中表現得非常好。我認為這反映了所有這些事情，包括我們在信用承保紀律方面的多樣性。

I do think traditional credit models work through cycles. Sometimes new credit models work when things are going well and are a little more challenged when things aren't going so well. And so we'll see how those new credit models and new ways of doing underwriting will work in this downturn. But I do think that banks', and certainly U.S. Bank's models have been proven through multiple cycles.

我確實認為傳統的信用模型會經歷週期。有時，當事情進展順利時，新的信貸模式會起作用，而當事情進展不順利時，新的信貸模式會面臨更大的挑戰。因此，我們將看到這些新的信貸模式和新的承保方式將如何在這種低迷時期發揮作用。但我確實認為銀行的模式，當然還有美國銀行的模式已經通過多個週期得到證明。

And my third question is, I think that most of the Street subscribes to the idea that payments is going to be a secular winner for U.S. Bank. And there's clearly a debate right now on how weak does the consumer get in a downturn. Nobody is worried really about credit surprises in the consumer with U.S. Bank. But how should we think about the range of outcomes in payment activity and spend if we do have a recession?

我的第三個問題是，我認為大多數華爾街人士都同意支付將成為美國銀行的長期贏家。現在顯然存在一場關於消費者在經濟低迷時期變得多麼虛弱的辯論。沒有人真正擔心美國銀行的消費者信貸意外。但是，如果我們確實遇到了經濟衰退，我們應該如何考慮支付活動和支出的結果範圍呢？

Yes. Erika, it depends on how severe that recession is, certainly. But as Terry alluded to, what we're seeing is the consumer is still in a very good position. They have a lot of cushion. We have $2.5 trillion of excess savings versus pre-pandemic levels. For U.S. Bank, we're still at the 2 to 3x deposit level. So they're still spending dollars that they've not spent over the past few years. And as you know, the unemployment numbers are very good.

是的。埃里卡，這當然取決於經濟衰退的嚴重程度。但正如特里所暗示的那樣，我們看到的是消費者仍然處於非常有利的位置。他們有很多緩衝。與大流行前的水平相比，我們有 2.5 萬億美元的超額儲蓄。對於美國銀行，我們仍處於 2 到 3 倍的存款水平。因此，他們仍在花費過去幾年沒有花費的美元。如您所知，失業人數非常好。

So I think there's enough cushion. And I do think that, at least for the near term, that cushion will allow continued spend activity, albeit, as Terry mentioned, in a little bit different categories, certainly from goods to services and a little bit more in terms of nondiscretionary, but we're still seeing strength there. And again, how that ultimately comes out will depend upon those -- that range of outcomes that I talked about that's pretty wide.

所以我認為有足夠的緩衝。而且我確實認為，至少在短期內，這種緩衝將允許持續的支出活動，儘管正如特里所提到的，在一些不同的類別中，當然從商品到服務，以及在非自由裁量方面更多一些，但是我們仍然在那裡看到了力量。再一次，最終結果將取決於那些 - 我談到的結果範圍非常廣泛。

And just one last one. You implied that the fee income guide -- you said lower than 2021. Would you quantify how much?

只有最後一個。你暗示收費收入指南——你說低於 2021 年。你能量化多少嗎？

I'm sorry, related to what?

不好意思，跟什麼有關？

We did. We...

我們做到了。我們...

So Terry, she's asking if we quantified the fee income guide. And we quantified total revenue in that 5% to 6%, yes?

所以特里，她問我們是否量化了收費收入指南。我們將總收入量化為 5% 到 6%，是嗎？

We did. Yes, exactly.

我們做到了。對，就是這樣。

Our next question comes from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Mike Mayo。

So I look at Slide 7, I'm trying to look at -- I'm squinting on that, and that's the number of joint business banking and payment customers' relationship growth. And you have that indexed at 100, starting at March 2021. I've been looking at a blue line versus the green line, and yes, this is your big effort. And so I guess you're up -- with my squinting here, you're up 5% year-over-year in the growth of accounts that use both banking and payments. Is that correct?

所以我看幻燈片 7，我正在嘗試看 - 我瞇著眼睛看，這是聯合商業銀行和支付客戶關係增長的數量。從 2021 年 3 月開始，您將其索引為 100。我一直在查看藍線與綠線，是的，這是您的巨大努力。所以我猜你是上升了——我在這裡瞇著眼睛，你在使用銀行和支付的賬戶的增長方面同比增長了 5%。那是對的嗎？

That's right, Mike. Sorry for the squinting, but yes. So if you kind of index back to 100, we're up just under 6% on those combined relationships that have both banking and payments products. And that's almost 2x, what, just the total relationships, which would imply just single service relationships are below that green line.

沒錯，邁克。對不起，瞇著眼睛，但是是的。因此，如果你的指數回到 100，我們在那些同時擁有銀行和支付產品的組合關係上上漲了不到 6%。這幾乎是總關係的 2 倍，這意味著只有單個服務關係低於該綠線。

Okay. And how much is this contributing to your growth? I mean, you had outsized growth in payments, Slide 14. You've had outsized growth in commercial loans, Slide 8. So can you kind of disassemble this? Like what percent of the growth is due to this business banking and payment initiative? And how much is just due to the environment, the onboarding of the economy post pandemic?

好的。這對您的成長有多大貢獻？我的意思是，您的支付額大幅增長，幻燈片 14。您的商業貸款大幅增長，幻燈片 8。那麼您可以分解一下嗎？像這種商業銀行和支付計劃帶來的增長百分比是多少？有多少是由於環境，大流行後經濟的啟動？

I think it's a little bit of both. We're still, as I mentioned, in the early innings of all this. But I will tell you, Mike, that we have a tremendous focus on this on both the business banking segment as well as the commercial segment. And I think this concept of weaving together banking and payments services into a comprehensive offering is going to be meaningfully important to our growth rates, both acquiring customers and providing more products and services to the current customers.

我認為兩者兼而有之。正如我所提到的，我們仍處於這一切的早期階段。但我會告訴你，邁克，我們在商業銀行部門和商業部門都非常關注這一點。我認為這種將銀行和支付服務結合成一個綜合產品的概念將對我們的增長率非常重要，無論是獲取客戶還是為現有客戶提供更多產品和服務。

And it is one of my top priorities. It's one of the company's top priorities across these many business lines. And I do think it's driving the growth that you're seeing in both business activity as well as corporate activity.

這是我的首要任務之一。這是公司在眾多業務線中的首要任務之一。而且我確實認為它正在推動您在商業活動和企業活動中看到的增長。

And then an unrelated question. I mean commercial loan growth is growing very strong. And yes, what's the pricing like on commercial loans? It just seems like there's such a disconnect between the capital markets, which is charging so much more for credit, and the bank lending markets, which might be charging more but not nearly as much.

然後是一個不相關的問題。我的意思是商業貸款增長非常強勁。是的，商業貸款的定價如何？資本市場對信貸的收費要高得多，而銀行貸款市場的收費可能更高，但幾乎沒有那麼多。

Yes. I think that, Mike, in the commercial side, corporate loan side of the equation, the -- it's still pretty competitive from a pricing point of view. And so I would tend to agree in the sense that credit spreads haven't widened maybe as much as we might have expected at this particular point in time. And I think part of that kind of comes back to what economy are we looking at.

是的。我認為，邁克，在商業方面，企業貸款方面，從定價的角度來看，它仍然很有競爭力。因此，我傾向於同意信用利差沒有像我們在這個特定時間點預期的那樣擴大。我認為這種情況的一部分可以追溯到我們所關注的經濟。

I mean it's -- again, today, it looks pretty good. But my expectation is, if you have this type of loan growth and the economic outlook people are kind of expecting, you would expect those credit spreads to be widening and spreads to be widening in our loans more. I've not seen it yet, though.

我的意思是它 - 再次，今天，它看起來很不錯。但我的預期是，如果你有這種類型的貸款增長和人們所期待的經濟前景，你會預期這些信用利差會擴大，我們貸款的利差會擴大更多。不過，我還沒有看到它。

So does that -- I mean, you're the most conservative bank in the industry based on several metrics: bond spreads, credit rating agencies, all that sort of thing. So as the most conservative bank in the industry, among the largest, does that mean do you forgo some of this lending? Or do you just plow ahead with the assumption that we're not going into any sort of hard landing?

那也是如此——我的意思是，根據幾個指標，你是業內最保守的銀行：債券利差、信用評級機構等等。因此，作為業內最保守的銀行，也是最大的銀行，這是否意味著您放棄了部分貸款？還是你只是假設我們不會陷入任何硬著陸？

Mike, it's a good question as well. So I -- Terry and myself and our leaders are being very disciplined about what we're putting on our balance sheet. And I will tell you that while we had strong loan growth, it could have been a heck of a lot stronger, but it wasn't because we are not putting those deals that are either not appropriate from a credit standpoint, certainly, or from a spread standpoint or a return standpoint. So we are growing good loans. We could have grown more, but we didn't.

邁克，這也是個好問題。所以我 - 特里和我自己以及我們的領導人對我們在資產負債表上的內容非常自律。我會告訴你，雖然我們的貸款增長強勁，但它可能會強勁得多，但這並不是因為我們沒有進行那些從信用角度來看不合適的交易，當然，或者傳播觀點或回報觀點。所以我們正在增加良好的貸款。我們本可以成長更多，但我們沒有。

Yes. And a perfect example, if you end up looking at the growth in auto lending for us over the last quarter or 2, although spreads have been very competitive, they have not been responsive to the rising rate environment. And we're willing to give up some of the volume there, simply because of the fact that returns are not as strong as they should be, given the current environment. So that would be an example of the discipline we're talking about.

是的。一個完美的例子，如果你最終看到我們在上一季度或第二季度汽車貸款的增長，儘管利差一直非常具有競爭力，但它們並沒有對利率上升的環境做出反應。我們願意放棄那裡的一些交易量，僅僅是因為在當前環境下，回報並不像應有的那麼強勁。所以這將是我們正在談論的學科的一個例子。

Our next question comes from Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I wanted to ask about the credit marks related to the pending UB deal. Obviously, spreads have widened, as was just discussed. And just -- I would think that means kind of more marks, and maybe just frame how meaningful that might be. Is there a risk that the CET1 is below 8.5%? And then of course, on the flip side, if you're marking that book down a little bit more aggressively, maybe you're essentially done building reserves in that portfolio even if we do get the hard landing.

我想詢問與未決 UB 交易相關的信用標記。顯然，正如剛才討論的那樣，價差已經擴大。只是——我認為這意味著更多的分數，也許只是說明這可能是多麼有意義。 CET1是否存在低於8.5%的風險？當然，另一方面，如果你更積極地標記那本書，即使我們確實實現了硬著陸，也許你基本上已經在該投資組合中建立了儲備。

Yes. Well, maybe from a credit mark standpoint, I think it's pretty consistent with what we had expected. I mean that portfolio performs pretty strong. In terms of the mark-to-market from a rate point of view, it certainly is higher than what we had originally modeled out. That will put a little bit of pressure, as I mentioned earlier, on the day 1 closing CET1 ratio, which we still expect to be around 8.5%.

是的。好吧，也許從信用標記的角度來看，我認為這與我們的預期非常一致。我的意思是投資組合表現相當強勁。從費率的角度來看，按市值計算，它肯定比我們最初建模的要高。正如我之前提到的，這將給第一天收盤 CET1 比率帶來一點壓力，我們仍然預計該比率在 8.5% 左右。

It might be a little bit lower than that, but -- or a little higher. It kind of just depends upon where rates are at that point in time. But as you say, it accretes back into income pretty quickly. And so it's not really a significant concern at this particular point in time for us.

它可能會比那個低一點，但是——或者更高一點。這有點取決於當時的費率。但正如你所說，它很快就會重新增加收入。因此，在這個特定的時間點對我們來說，這並不是一個真正的重大問題。

I do think, Matt, also, we talked a little bit about the timing of synergies related to the cost synergies, maybe with the system conversion moving back, being a little bit lower than what we had modeled, but the benefit of the mark-to-market will offset that. So from an overall earnings accretion point of view, we still very -- still feel very comfortable with 6% in 2023.

我確實認為，馬特，我們也談到了與成本協同效應相關的協同效應的時機，也許隨著系統轉換向後移動，比我們建模的要低一點，但是標記的好處-上市將抵消這一點。因此，從整體收益增長的角度來看，我們仍然非常 - 仍然對 2023 年的 6% 感到非常滿意。

And then just to summarize, so the credit marks aren't really impacted by kind of macro forecasts and what we're seeing in public markets. It's more what you're seeing in the actual portfolio as we think about the credit marks themselves.

然後總結一下，因此信用評分並沒有真正受到宏觀預測和我們在公開市場上看到的影響。當我們考慮信用標記本身時，更多的是您在實際投資組合中看到的內容。

Yes. I mean, obviously, we have to take into consideration what our assumptions are from an economic outlook point of view. But as I mentioned earlier, those haven't changed a lot yet at this particular point in time. And so again, it depends upon the timing of the closing and what happens between here and then. But at least, at this particular point in time, is the quality of the portfolio is good. It's performing well, et cetera. So...

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們必須從經濟前景的角度考慮我們的假設。但正如我之前提到的，在這個特定的時間點，這些還沒有太大變化。同樣，這取決於關閉的時間以及從這裡到那時發生的事情。但至少，在這個特定的時間點，投資組合的質量是好的。它表現良好，等等。所以...

Okay. And then just separately, you talked about mortgage fees being weaker than expected in your full year guidance. Obviously, we're seeing that for the industry overall. But any signs of the gain on sale margin stabilizing? And then in the servicing book, it doesn't feel like we're getting the full benefit of the slower prepayments. I know there can be a little bit of a delay as we look across some of the banks. We're not seeing that. Is there still some benefit from the servicing book to kick in?

好的。然後，您單獨談到抵押貸款費用低於您全年指導中的預期。顯然，我們在整個行業中都看到了這一點。但有任何跡象表明銷售利潤率的收益穩定了嗎？然後在維修手冊中，感覺我們並沒有從較慢的預付款中獲得全部好處。我知道當我們查看一些銀行時可能會有一點延遲。我們沒有看到這一點。維修手冊還有一些好處嗎？

Yes. So a couple of different things. As we talked earlier, there will continue to be pressure on mortgage banking revenue. We think about it on a linked quarter basis, third quarter fee revenue in that area is probably going to be pretty similar to the second quarter. But that's going to be a combination of things, Matt.

是的。所以有幾件不同的事情。正如我們之前所說，抵押銀行收入將繼續面臨壓力。我們在關聯季度的基礎上考慮它，該領域的第三季度費用收入可能與第二季度非常相似。但這將是多種因素的結合，馬特。

I do think that there continues to be a little bit of pressure on the volume side of the equation, simply because of rising rates. We are seeing, at least, for us, the gain on sale starting to stabilize and improve a little bit.

我確實認為等式的交易量方面仍然存在一點壓力，這僅僅是因為利率上升。至少，對我們而言，我們看到銷售收益開始穩定並有所改善。

Our expectation is that it improves as we go through the rest of the year and certainly into 2023. There's a fair amount of capacity that's coming out of the system, out of the industry. And so I think that, that will help in terms of gain on sale.

我們的預期是，隨著我們在今年餘下的時間，當然到 2023 年，它會有所改善。從系統和行業中流出的容量相當可觀。所以我認為，這將有助於銷售收益。

From a servicing standpoint, at least, from our point of -- in terms of how we and the management, we try to hedge MSR valuations pretty tightly. Obviously, the values of MSRs are improving because of that -- because of rates. And I do expect there's probably opportunity from a servicing income point of view.

至少從服務的角度來看，就我們和管理層的方式而言，我們試圖非常嚴格地對沖 MSR 估值。顯然，MSR 的價值因此而提高——因為費率。而且我確實希望從服務收入的角度來看可能會有機會。

Our next question comes from Bill Carcache from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Assuming the Fed hikes eventually lead to slower growth and higher unemployment as many hiking cycles have historically, could you help us understand at what point you'd be required to increase your reserve rate because that increase in unemployment would fall under your reasonable and supportable forecast period under CECL? Does it just need to be more visible before you can act on it?

假設美聯儲加息最終導致經濟增長放緩和失業率上升，正如許多加息週期歷史上所經歷的那樣，您能否幫助我們了解您需要在什麼時候提高準備金率，因為失業率的增加將在您合理且可支持的預測範圍內CECL下的期限？在您採取行動之前，它只是需要更加明顯嗎？

Yes. I think there's a lot of uncertainty out there in which direction it's actually going to go. I think there just needs to be more certainty around what that economic outlook is. Again, kind of coming back to what I mentioned earlier, Bill, we look at a whole variety of different economic outlooks and then we weight them.

是的。我認為它實際上會朝哪個方向發展存在很多不確定性。我認為需要對經濟前景有更多的確定性。再次，回到我之前提到的，比爾，我們研究了各種不同的經濟前景，然後對它們進行加權。

And we have been, for some period of time, kind of weighting them a little bit more on the downside, expecting because of the uncertainty that we've been talking about in the past. So if a recession hits, we will have to adjust it, but that's something we'll have to take into consideration at that time.

一段時間以來，由於我們過去一直在談論的不確定性，我們一直在對它們進行更多的權衡。因此，如果經濟衰退來襲，我們將不得不對其進行調整，但這是我們當時必須考慮的事情。

Understood. And maybe following up on that, how much of an impact would you say management overlays are having currently? Many banks have had their reserve rates fall below their day 1 levels already. And there's a view that the macro outlook today is not as favorable as it was on January 1, 2020. Just curious to what extent overlays are being used to the extent to which you consider using them.

明白了。也許跟進，你會說管理覆蓋目前有多大的影響？許多銀行的準備金率已經低於第一天的水平。並且有一種觀點認為，今天的宏觀前景不如 2020 年 1 月 1 日那麼有利。只是好奇覆蓋在多大程度上被使用到您考慮使用它們的程度。

Yes. I mean I can't speak for what other people are doing. What I will speak to is that, if you end up looking at the reserve rate on day 1 versus today, the change in that is really probably a couple of different factors. But it's principally the mix of the portfolio today versus what it was 2 years ago, both in terms of the quality of the asset, but also where we have seen growth over the last couple of years.

是的。我的意思是我不能代表其他人在做什麼。我要說的是，如果您最終查看第 1 天與今天的準備金率，其中的變化實際上可能是幾個不同的因素。但這主要是今天的投資組合與兩年前的組合，無論是在資產質量方面，還是在過去幾年我們看到的增長方面。

ABS Securities, as an example, security lending, as an example, is very high quality. That's where we have seen quite a bit of growth over the last couple of years. And so a lot of it's mix for us as much as anything. I would say, from an economic perspective, relative to certainly day 1, it's probably more on the downside than it was then. So it's -- I mean, again, I can't speak to what other people are doing, but it's really mix driven by -- for us.

以ABS Securities為例，以證券借貸為例，它的質量非常高。這就是我們在過去幾年看到相當多的增長的地方。所以很多東西對我們來說都是混合的。我想說，從經濟角度來看，相對於第一天，它可能比當時更不利。所以它 - 我的意思是，我不能再談論其他人在做什麼，但它真的是混合驅動的 - 對我們來說。

Understood. That's helpful. And if I can squeeze in one last one. You guys have a unique view given the depth of your consumer and commercial businesses. Maybe could you price out for us what a mild recession you think would look like, maybe where you see the greatest risk on both the commercial and consumer side and then specifically within USB?

明白了。這很有幫助。如果我能擠上最後一個。鑑於您的消費者和商業業務的深度，你們有獨特的觀點。也許您能為我們估算出您認為的溫和衰退會是什麼樣子，也許您認為商業和消費者方面的最大風險，然後是 USB 方面的最大風險？

What that looks like...

那看起來像什麼...

Go on -- yes. I think the greatest impacts will be on the low and moderate-income customer base, starting there. And that's where inflation impacts the most, and that's where we're already starting to see some shift in spend, as we talked about, from discretionary to nondiscretionary. And I think as that continues, that will -- you'll see more of an impact there. But the spend levels continue to be good, as we talked about.

繼續——是的。我認為最大的影響將是對中低收入客戶群，從那裡開始。這就是通貨膨脹影響最大的地方，正如我們所說，這就是我們已經開始看到支出從可自由支配轉向非自由支配的地方。我認為隨著這種情況的繼續，你會看到更多的影響。但正如我們所說，支出水平仍然很好。

I will tell you, one change that we are seeing for the last 2.5 years, every month, consumer balances, what, our checking and savings account balances have risen every single month. We did see sort of a flattening in the last 2 months. So that's moderating for sure. So some of that excess savings certainly is not growing, but it's flattening and starting to be spent.

我會告訴你，我們在過去 2.5 年中看到的一個變化，每個月，消費者余額，我們的支票和儲蓄賬戶餘額每個月都在增加。在過去的兩個月裡，我們確實看到了某種扁平化。所以這肯定是緩和的。因此，一些多餘的儲蓄肯定不會增長，但它正在趨於平緩並開始被花掉。

So I think as that continues, that provides a cushion as we go into the next few months, but that cushion is starting to at least flatten out. So those are the things we're seeing. And again, as a reminder, we don't have -- our portfolio is prime only. Our customer base is high quality. So I think some of those early indicators or early impacts will not be seen in our balance sheet.

所以我認為，隨著這種情況的繼續，這將為我們進入接下來的幾個月提供一個緩衝，但這個緩衝至少開始變平。所以這些就是我們所看到的。再次提醒一下，我們沒有——我們的投資組合只是主要的。我們的客戶群是高質量的。因此，我認為其中一些早期指標或早期影響不會出現在我們的資產負債表中。

Yes. And then on the corporate side, we have very little leverage lending. That's just not an area that we get into. Our corporate customers are good investment-grade customers. So they have certainly the ability to withstand, especially a mild recession.

是的。然後在企業方面，我們幾乎沒有槓桿貸款。這不是我們進入的領域。我們的企業客戶是良好的投資級客戶。所以他們當然有能力承受，尤其是溫和的衰退。

That's super helpful. And Andy, maybe going back to your comment around the significant liquidity that the consumers have and how that's kind of been coming down a little bit, but it's still high. Is that something that you think perhaps is maybe contributing to the strength in the spending and potentially could be sort of inflationary, in and of itself, and lead the Fed to have to do more in terms of hiking? Just curious -- just your high-level thoughts on that.

這非常有幫助。 Andy，也許會回到你關於消費者擁有的大量流動性以及它是如何下降一點點的評論，但它仍然很高。您認為這是否可能有助於增強支出，並且本身可能會導致通貨膨脹，並導緻美聯儲不得不在加息方面做更多事情？只是好奇——只是你對此的高層次想法。

Yes. I think that's one of the wildcards or factors that we talked about. We're seeing things in today's environment that we haven't seen in other downturns or recessionary impacts, and I think this is one of them. So we had trillions of dollars of government stimulus, unemployment, and the fact that people weren't spending given the pandemic for a number of quarters and years and that built up a cushion.

是的。我認為這是我們討論的通配符或因素之一。我們在今天的環境中看到了在其他經濟衰退或衰退影響中沒有看到的東西，我認為這就是其中之一。因此，我們有數万億美元的政府刺激措施、失業以及人們在數個季度和數年的大流行中沒有消費的事實，這為我們提供了緩衝。

And that cushion, certainly, is impacting spend levels because now they are using it. And that's that $2.5 trillion of excess savings. And for us, it is that high balance that we're seeing across every level of deposits, 0 to $500, $500 to $1,000 up to $10,000. So still well above pre-pandemic levels, but certainly flattening out. And I think that cushion provides a little bit of time, certainly, before you start to see some of the impacts from this higher rate environment because people are spending money they already have.

當然，這種緩沖正在影響支出水平，因為現在他們正在使用它。這就是 2.5 萬億美元的超額儲蓄。對我們來說，這是我們在每個級別的存款中看到的高餘額，從 0 到 500 美元、500 到 1,000 美元到 10,000 美元。因此仍遠高於大流行前的水平，但肯定會趨於平緩。而且我認為緩衝提供了一點時間，當然，在您開始看到這種高利率環境的一些影響之前，因為人們正在花錢他們已經擁有的錢。

And our final question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just 1 quick question on Slide 15 on the payments business, Andy and Terry. So you talked about just what might happen in the next few quarters. But talk to us, like when we think about the business in the medium to longer term, a lot of the digital-native companies are struggling right now. What this means in terms of the investments you've made over the last few years to gain market share? Should we anticipate any kind of strategic M&A that helps you further your footprint within the payments business? And just how that business should evolve relative -- in the pie chart and the breakdown you provided on Slide 15? I would love to hear your thoughts.

關於支付業務的幻燈片 15，安迪和特里只有 1 個快速問題。所以你談到了未來幾個季度可能發生的事情。但是和我們談談，就像當我們考慮中長期業務時，很多數字原生公司現在都在苦苦掙扎。就您在過去幾年中為獲得市場份額所做的投資而言，這意味著什麼？我們是否應該預期任何類型的戰略併購可以幫助您在支付業務中進一步發展？以及該業務應該如何相對發展 - 在餅圖和您在幻燈片 15 上提供的細分中？我很想听聽你的想法。

So I think what we talked about is building this capability, this ecosystem of banking and payments. And we've already made a number of smaller acquisitions, talech being one of them, TravelBank being another, that have built our capabilities and thinking about helping companies manage their entire business from a receivables, a payable standpoint, money movement, lending activity cash flows and such.

所以我認為我們談論的是建立這種能力，這種銀行和支付生態系統。我們已經進行了一些較小的收購，其中 talech 是其中之一，TravelBank 是另一個，這已經建立了我們的能力並考慮幫助公司從應收賬款、應付賬款的角度、資金流動、借貸活動現金管理他們的整個業務流量之類的。

So the acquisitions that you've seen us make us to do exactly that. That, coupled with the investments we've made, is what's driving that what we think is a great opportunity to build relationships and build revenue within those relationships. And that's driving to Terry's articulation of that high single-digit growth.

所以你看到我們的收購讓我們做到了這一點。再加上我們所做的投資，我們認為這是建立關係並在這些關係中增加收入的絕佳機會。這推動了特里對高個位數增長的表述。

Yes. And Ebrahim, I would say that if we have a focus from an acquisition point of view, in the near term, it will be something that's very specific to a product or a capability that we're trying to fill in. But quite honestly, we feel pretty good in terms of where we're at right now.

是的。易卜拉欣，我想說的是，如果我們從收購的角度來看，在短期內，這將是非常特定於我們試圖填補的產品或能力的東西。但老實說，就我們現在所處的位置而言，我們感覺很好。

And would you expect that, over the next year or 2, you're gaining market share in the business? And what I'm trying to do is just handicap disruption risk to that business. It's something that's on the mind of investors. And it seems like you're making good progress, but would love to hear how you think about where your market share would be if you had to draw out over the medium term relative to today.

您是否期望在未來一兩年內獲得該業務的市場份額？而我正在嘗試做的只是阻礙該業務的中斷風險。這是投資者心中的事情。看起來你正在取得良好的進展，但很想听聽你如何看待如果你不得不在相對於今天的中期抽出的話，你的市場份額會在哪裡。

Yes, I do think we have the opportunity. I think we have 2 great opportunities. One is we have a big slew of banking customers. That's in another chart, too. We don't have our payments capabilities yet, and we have -- half of our payments customers don't have our banking.

是的，我確實認為我們有機會。我認為我們有兩個很好的機會。一是我們有大量的銀行客戶。這也在另一個圖表中。我們還沒有我們的支付能力，而且我們有——我們一半的支付客戶沒有我們的銀行業務。

So we have a great opportunity to provide more products and services to those customers. That's number one. And number two is, given the capabilities in this ecosystem we're building, we have the opportunity to acquire more customers, which we believe will take share.

所以我們有很好的機會為這些客戶提供更多的產品和服務。那是第一名。第二是，鑑於我們正在構建的這個生態系統的能力，我們有機會獲得更多的客戶，我們相信這會分得一杯羹。

And speakers, we have no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back to Jen Thompson.

發言者們，我們目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回給 Jen Thompson。

Thanks, everyone, for listening to our earnings call today. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

謝謝大家，今天收聽我們的財報電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係部。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。