美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results by Andy Cecere, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11 a.m. Central Time.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 U.S. Bancorp 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。在主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere 對結果進行審查後；副主席兼首席財務官 Terry Dolan 將舉行正式的問答環節。 （操作員說明）本次通話將被記錄下來，並可從今天中部時間上午 11 點左右開始重播。

I will now turn the conference over to George Andersen, Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將把會議轉交給 U.S. Bancorp 投資者關係總監 George Andersen。

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Terry Dolan, our Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer. During their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the slide presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，艾倫，大家早上好。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere；以及我們的副主席兼首席財務官 Terry Dolan。在他們準備好的演講中，安迪和特里將參考幻燈片演示。我們的網站 usbank.com 上提供了幻燈片演示的副本以及我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表。

I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, in our press release and in our Form 10-K and subsequent reports on file with the SEC.

我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議中做出的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。今天的演示文稿的第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿和我們的 10-K 表格以及隨後提交給 SEC 的報告中描述了可能對我們當前的前瞻性假設產生重大影響的因素。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在將把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Following our prepared remarks, Terry and I will take any questions you have. And I'll begin on Slide 3.

謝謝，喬治。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。在我們準備好的發言之後，特里和我會回答你的任何問題。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。

In the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.16, which included $0.02 per share of merger and integration charges related to the planned acquisition of MUFG Union Bank. Excluding these notable items, we reported earnings per share of $1.18 for the quarter. During the third quarter, we achieved record net revenue totaling $6.3 billion. Third quarter results were highlighted by strong revenue growth, well-controlled expenses and stable credit quality.

第三季度，我們報告的每股收益為 1.16 美元，其中包括與計劃收購 MUFG Union Bank 相關的每股合併和整合費用 0.02 美元。不包括這些值得注意的項目，我們報告本季度每股收益為 1.18 美元。在第三季度，我們實現了創紀錄的淨收入，總計 63 億美元。第三季度業績以強勁的收入增長、良好的費用控制和穩定的信貸質量為亮點。

This quarter, we added $200 million to our loan loss reserve, reflecting loan growth and our consistent through-the-cycle underwriting approach to risk management. At September 30, our CET1 capital ratio was 9.7%. Our tangible book value per share totaled $20.73 at September 30 or 3.2% lower than the prior quarter driven by the impact of rising interest rates on our available-for-sale securities.

本季度，我們為貸款損失準備金增加了 2 億美元，反映了貸款增長和我們一貫的全週期風險管理承保方法。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的 CET1 資本比率為 9.7%。受利率上升對我們可供出售證券的影響，截至 9 月 30 日，我們的每股有形賬面價值總計 20.73 美元，比上一季度低 3.2%。

Slide 4 provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, we delivered a return on average assets of 1.24% and a return on average common equity of 16.2%. Our return on tangible common equity was 21.4% on a core basis.

幻燈片 4 提供了關鍵績效指標。不計重要項目，我們實現了 1.24% 的平均資產回報率和 16.2% 的平均普通股回報率。在核心基礎上，我們的有形普通股回報率為 21.4%。

Slide 5 highlights continued positive trends in digital engagement as consumer and business customers gain a deeper understanding of our digital capabilities and benefit from our digital-plus-human approach.

幻燈片 5 突出了數字參與方面的持續積極趨勢，因為消費者和企業客戶對我們的數字能力有了更深入的了解，並從我們的數字加人類方法中受益。

Slide 6 shows progress across our digital and payments initiatives that are both deepening our core competencies and expanding our competitive advantage, which we believe will drive meaningful profit and return differentiation to our company. One example of our digital initiatives is our launch of talech Register, a next-generation, all-in-one payments and business analytics platform that is helping to bring greater simplicity, convenience and efficiencies to the point of sale for our business banking customers.

幻燈片 6 顯示了我們在數字和支付計劃方面取得的進展，這些計劃既加深了我們的核心競爭力，又擴大了我們的競爭優勢，我們相信這將為我們的公司帶來可觀的利潤和回報差異化。我們數字計劃的一個例子是我們推出了 talech Register，這是一種下一代一體化支付和業務分析平台，有助於為我們的商業銀行客戶的銷售點帶來更大的簡單性、便利性和效率。

On the right side of the slide, you can see the continuing momentum we are gaining in real-time payments transactions. Year-to-date through September 30, the total number of transactions are 17x higher than the full year 2020. Recently reintroduced an innovative, real-time payment solution to auto dealers, where we provide loan funds instantly after a loan contract is finalized. This gives our participating dealer clients greater control of their cash flow and helps to improve their day-to-day operational efficiency.

在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到我們在實時支付交易中獲得的持續動力。年初至今，截至 9 月 30 日，交易總數是 2020 年全年的 17 倍。最近向汽車經銷商重新推出了一種創新的實時支付解決方案，我們在貸款合同敲定後立即提供貸款資金。這使我們參與的經銷商客戶能夠更好地控制他們的現金流，並有助於提高他們的日常運營效率。

Turning to Slide 7. Our business banking initiative continues to gain traction with steady progress both in growing accounts and expanding wallet share. Growth in relationships with both banking and payments products has continued to meaningfully outpace growth in total relationships over the past 12 months. Looking ahead, we expect recently launched and innovative offerings in development to help further deepen our existing relationships between business banking and payments customers.

轉到幻燈片 7。我們的商業銀行計劃繼續獲得牽引力，在增加賬戶和擴大錢包份額方面取得了穩步進展。在過去 12 個月中，與銀行和支付產品的關係增長繼續顯著超過總關係的增長。展望未來，我們預計最近推出的創新產品將有助於進一步加深我們在商業銀行和支付客戶之間的現有關係。

Now let me turn the call over to Terry, who'll provide more detail on the quarter.

現在讓我把電話轉給特里，他將提供本季度的更多細節。

Thanks, Andy. If you turn to Slide 8, I'll start with a balance sheet review followed by a discussion of third quarter earnings trends. Average loans increased 3.9% compared with the second quarter driven by 6.5% growth in commercial loans, 4.7% growth in mortgage loans and 6.0% growth in credit card balances. Commercial loan growth reflected increased business activity and higher utilization rates across both large corporate and middle market portfolios. Underlying demand remains healthy as we continue to focus on appropriate return opportunities to prudently deploy our capital.

謝謝，安迪。如果您轉到幻燈片 8，我將從資產負債表審查開始，然後討論第三季度收益趨勢。在商業貸款增長 6.5%、抵押貸款增長 4.7% 和信用卡餘額增長 6.0% 的推動下，平均貸款比第二季度增長 3.9%。商業貸款增長反映了大型企業和中型市場投資組合的業務活動增加和利用率提高。隨著我們繼續關注適當的回報機會以謹慎部署我們的資本，潛在需求仍然健康。

In the retail portfolio, we saw solid linked quarter growth and year-over-year growth in credit card balances, reflecting strong spending activity and lower payment rates. Purchase mortgage market share gains and lower prepayment activity continued to support residential mortgage balance growth.

在零售投資組合中，我們看到信用卡餘額的強勁季度增長和同比增長，反映了強勁的消費活動和較低的支付率。購買抵押貸款市場份額的增加和較低的提前還款活動繼續支持住宅抵押貸款餘額的增長。

Turning to Slide 9. Total average deposits increased slightly compared to the second quarter. Growth in total interest-bearing deposits more than offset the impact of lower total noninterest-bearing deposit balances as customers respond to the rising interest rate environment. Total average deposits increased by 5.9% compared to a year ago.

轉到幻燈片 9。與第二季度相比，平均存款總額略有增加。隨著客戶對利率上升的環境做出反應，有息存款總額的增長足以抵消無息存款總額減少的影響。與一年前相比，平均存款總額增加了 5.9%。

Slide 10 shows credit quality trends, which continue to be strong across our loan portfolio. The ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate was 0.20% at September 30 compared with 0.23% at June 30 and 0.32% a year ago.

幻燈片 10 顯示了信貸質量趨勢，在我們的貸款組合中繼續保持強勁勢頭。截至 9 月 30 日，不良資產與貸款和其他房地產的比率為 0.20%，而 6 月 30 日為 0.23%，一年前為 0.32%。

Our third quarter charge-off ratio of 0.19% improved slightly versus the second quarter of 2022 and third quarter of 2021 levels. The allowance for credit losses as of September 30 totaled $6.5 billion or 1.88% of period-end loans. The $200 million increase in our reserve this quarter was primarily reflective of loan growth and, to a lesser extent, uncertainties in the economic outlook.

我們的第三季度沖銷率為 0.19%，與 2022 年第二季度和 2021 年第三季度的水平相比略有改善。截至 9 月 30 日，信貸損失準備金總額為 65 億美元，佔期末貸款的 1.88%。本季度我們的準備金增加了 2 億美元，主要反映了貸款增長，在較小程度上反映了經濟前景的不確定性。

Slide 11 provides an earnings summary. In the third quarter, we reported $1.18 per share, excluding $0.02 per share of merger and integration charges related to the planned acquisition of MUFG Union Bank.

幻燈片 11 提供了收益摘要。第三季度，我們報告每股 1.18 美元，不包括與計劃收購 MUFG Union Bank 相關的合併和整合費用每股 0.02 美元。

Turning to Slide 12. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $3.9 billion, representing an 11.3% increase compared with the second quarter and a 20.6% increase from a year ago. Linked quarter growth was driven by strong earning asset growth and a 24 basis point increase in the net interest margin, which benefited from rising interest rates, partially offset by deposit pricing and short-term borrowing costs.

轉到幻燈片 12。按完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入總計 39 億美元，比第二季度增長 11.3%，比一年前增長 20.6%。強勁的盈利資產增長和淨息差增長 24 個基點推動了相關的季度增長，這得益於利率上升，但部分被存款定價和短期借貸成本所抵消。

Slide 13 highlights trends in noninterest income. Noninterest income decreased 3.1% on a linked quarter basis as declines in mortgage banking and treasury management revenues were partially offset by stronger corporate payments revenue and an increase in other noninterest revenue. Compared with a year ago, noninterest income declined 8.3% primarily due to lower mortgage banking revenue, reduced deposit service charges reflecting changes in our policies and lower treasury management fees due to rising rates, partially offset by higher payments revenue and trust and investment management fees.

幻燈片 13 突出顯示了非利息收入的趨勢。非利息收入環比下降 3.1%，原因是抵押銀行業務和資金管理收入的下降被企業支付收入的增長和其他非利息收入的增加所部分抵消。與一年前相比，非利息收入下降 8.3%，主要是由於抵押銀行業務收入下降、存款服務費減少（反映我們的政策變化）以及利率上升導致的資金管理費用下降，部分被支付收入和信託和投資管理費用的增加所抵消.

The decline in mortgage revenue primarily reflected lower refinancing activity in the market, which continued to pressure total application volumes and the related gain-on-sale margins given excess industry capacity. In the third quarter, total payments revenue increased by 4.9% compared with the year earlier.

抵押貸款收入的下降主要反映了市場再融資活動的減少，鑑於行業產能過剩，這繼續對總申請量和相關的銷售利潤率造成壓力。第三季度，支付總收入同比增長 4.9%。

Slide 14 provides linked quarter and year-over-year revenue growth trends for our 3 payments businesses. Because of the cyclical nature of our payments businesses, we believe year-over-year trends are a better indicator of underlying business performance in a normal environment. Credit and debit card fee revenue increased -- or decreased 0.5% on a year-over-year basis as the impact of higher credit card and debit card volume was more than offset by continued lower prepaid card activity.

幻燈片 14 提供了我們 3 種支付業務的相關季度和同比收入增長趨勢。由於我們支付業務的周期性，我們認為同比趨勢是正常環境下基本業務表現的更好指標。由於信用卡和借記卡交易量增加的影響被持續下降的預付卡活動所抵消，信用卡和借記卡費用收入同比增長或下降 0.5%。

Excluding prepaid card activity, which was elevated last year in connection with supporting unemployment programs, credit and debit card fee revenue would have increased 3.0% compared with the third quarter of 2021.

不包括去年因支持失業計劃而增加的預付卡活動，信用卡和借記卡費用收入將比 2021 年第三季度增長 3.0%。

The bottom half of the slide illustrates the year-over-year growth rates in both merchant processing and corporate payments fee revenue over the last several quarters. Third quarter merchant processing revenue increased 3.6% year-over-year. Growth was negatively impacted by unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates given market volatility in Europe and specifically in the U.K. Excluding the FX impact, year-over-year growth in merchant fee revenue was approximately 9.4%.

幻燈片的下半部分顯示了過去幾個季度商戶處理和企業支付費用收入的同比增長率。第三季度商戶處理收入同比增長 3.6%。鑑於歐洲特別是英國的市場波動，不利的外匯匯率對增長產生了負面影響。不包括外匯影響，商家費用收入的同比增長約為 9.4%。

Slide 15 provides some additional information on our Payment Services business. On the right side of the slide, you will see the continued strong momentum we are seeing in our tech-led revenue and partnerships within our merchant acquiring business. The key to that trajectory is the strong growth we have seen in new tech-led partnerships. Through the third quarter, new tech-led partnerships year-to-date were 2.5x the number of new partnerships we acquired in the entire year of 2019, and these partnerships are continuing to grow.

幻燈片 15 提供了有關我們的支付服務業務的一些附加信息。在幻燈片的右側，您將看到我們在技術主導的收入和商家收單業務中的合作夥伴關係中看到的持續強勁勢頭。這一軌蹟的關鍵是我們在以技術為主導的新合作夥伴關係中看到的強勁增長。截至第三季度，今年迄今為止，以技術為主導的新合作夥伴數量是我們在 2019 年全年獲得的新合作夥伴數量的 2.5 倍，並且這些合作夥伴關係還在繼續增長。

Turning to Slide 16. Noninterest expense increased 1.9% on a linked quarter basis, excluding merger and integration costs associated with the pending acquisition of Union Bank. The change in expense was driven by higher compensation, professional services and marketing and business development expenses.

轉到幻燈片 16。非利息費用在相關季度基礎上增長 1.9%，不包括與未決收購聯合銀行相關的合併和整合成本。費用的變化是由更高的薪酬、專業服務以及營銷和業務發展費用推動的。

Slide 17 highlights our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 common -- our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio at September 30 was 9.7%.

幻燈片 17 突出了我們的資本狀況。我們的普通股一級普通股——我們在 9 月 30 日的普通股一級資本比率為 9.7%。

On Slide 18, I'll provide some forward-looking guidance for U.S. Bank on a stand-alone basis. Again, this guidance does not include any potential impact of Union Bank. Let me start with full year 2022 guidance, which is consistent with our previous expectations. We continue to expect total net revenue to increase 5% to 6% in 2022 compared to 2021. We expect mid-teen growth in taxable equivalent net interest income, which has slightly improved from our previous outlook of low to mid-teens growth.

在幻燈片 18 上，我將單獨為美國銀行提供一些前瞻性指導。同樣，本指南不包括聯合銀行的任何潛在影響。讓我從 2022 年全年指導開始，這與我們之前的預期一致。與 2021 年相比，我們繼續預計 2022 年的總淨收入將增長 5% 至 6%。我們預計應稅等值淨利息收入將出現 10 年中期增長，這與我們之前的低至 10 年中期增長前景略有改善。

We continue to expect a decline in fee revenue for the full year, primarily due to the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage revenue due to lower refinancings in the market, lower deposit service charges due to pricing changes and a decline in other noninterest income.

我們繼續預計全年費用收入將下降，主要是由於市場再融資減少導致利率上升對抵押貸款收入的影響，定價變化導致存款服務費用下降以及其他非利息收入下降。

We continue to expect positive operating leverage of at least 200 basis points in 2022, excluding the impact of merger and integration-related costs associated with the Union Bank acquisition. For the full year of 2022, we expect our taxable equivalent tax rate to be approximately 22%.

我們繼續預計 2022 年至少有 200 個基點的正經營槓桿，不包括與聯合銀行收購相關的合併和整合相關成本的影響。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計我們的應稅等值稅率約為 22%。

I'll now provide guidance for the fourth quarter. We expect both total revenue and total core expenses, excluding merger and integration costs, to increase by approximately 2% on a linked quarter basis. Net interest income will continue to be supported by earning asset growth and higher rates. However, our fee revenue will be lower, reflecting typical seasonality in some of our fee-based businesses.

我現在將為第四季度提供指導。我們預計總收入和總核心費用（不包括合併和整合成本）將在相關季度基礎上增長約 2%。淨利息收入將繼續受到盈利資產增長和更高利率的支持。但是，我們的費用收入將較低，這反映了我們一些收費業務的典型季節性。

Credit quality remains strong. Over the next few quarters, we expect the net charge-off ratio to remain lower than historical levels but to normalize over time. Changes in the allowance for credit losses near term will primarily reflect loan growth and changes in the economic outlook.

信用質量依然強勁。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們預計淨核銷率將保持低於歷史水平，但會隨著時間的推移而正常化。近期信貸損失準備金的變化將主要反映貸款增長和經濟前景的變化。

If you turn to Slide 19, I'll provide an update on our previously announced pending acquisition of Union Bank. In September of 2021, we announced that we had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the core regional banking franchise of MUFG Union Bank. We continue to make significant progress in planning for the closing of the deal in the fourth quarter of 2022 while we await regulatory approval. As you know, regulatory approvals are not within the company's control and may impact the timing of the closing of the deal.

如果您轉到幻燈片 19，我將提供我們之前宣布的即將收購聯合銀行的最新消息。 2021 年 9 月，我們宣布已達成最終協議，以收購 MUFG Union Bank 的核心區域銀行業務。在等待監管部門批准的同時，我們在計劃於 2022 年第四季度完成交易方面繼續取得重大進展。如您所知，監管批准不在公司的控制範圍內，可能會影響交易完成的時間。

As a reminder, we expect to close on the deal approximately 45 days after being granted U.S. regulatory approval. As previously discussed, we are targeting a conversion date in the first half of 2023. The financial merits of the deal remain intact. Our EPS accretion estimates are unchanged, and we continue to estimate the acquisition will generate an internal rate of return of approximately 20%, which is well above our cost of capital.

提醒一下，我們預計將在獲得美國監管部門批准後約 45 天完成交易。如前所述，我們的目標轉換日期為 2023 年上半年。該交易的財務價值保持不變。我們對每股收益增長的估計保持不變，我們繼續估計此次收購將產生約 20% 的內部收益率，這遠高於我們的資本成本。

The company's target CET1 capital ratio is 8.5%. Based on interest rates as of October 13, our CET1 capital ratio at close would approximately -- would approximate 8.3%. We expect the CET ratio to increase towards 9% as the purchase accounting valuation adjustments accrete into capital through earnings.

公司目標CET1資本比率為8.5%。根據截至 10 月 13 日的利率，我們收盤時的 CET1 資本比率約為 - 約為 8.3%。隨著採購會計估值調整通過收益計入資本，我們預計 CET 比率將增加到 9%。

I'll hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

我會把它交還給 Andy 做結束語。

Thanks, Terry. The advances we have made and continue to make across our business lines are paying off in terms of improved customer experience, new customer acquisition and deeper relationships. Expense management is a priority, and we continue to target positive operating leverage in 2022 and beyond.

謝謝，特里。我們在各個業務領域已經取得併將繼續取得的進步正在改善客戶體驗、新客戶獲取和更深層次的關係方面得到回報。費用管理是重中之重，我們將繼續以 2022 年及以後的積極經營槓桿為目標。

We look forward to closing on the Union Bank acquisition pending regulatory approval. This is a unique opportunity at scale in one of our core markets, and we remain confident in the strategic and financial merits of the deal.

我們期待在監管部門批准之前完成對聯合銀行的收購。在我們的核心市場之一，這是一個獨特的大規模機會，我們對交易的戰略和財務優勢仍然充滿信心。

The credit -- the current credit environment is benign. In fact, our net charge-off ratio in the third quarter remain near historic lows, and we are not seeing any meaningful early-stage metrics that causes concern. That being said, we recognize the pressure points are building in several areas of the economy that could lead to stress in the future.

信用——當前的信用環境是良性的。事實上，我們第三季度的淨沖銷率仍接近歷史低點，我們沒有看到任何有意義的早期指標引起關注。話雖如此，我們認識到在未來可能導致壓力的幾個經濟領域正在建立壓力點。

Borrowing costs are increasing, inflation is high, saving rates are starting to decline, and the stock market is well off its highs. So while the backdrop is favorable today, it would not be surprising to us to see an economic slowdown develop at some point driven by lower confidence levels, which may lead to reduced spending and business investment.

借貸成本在增加，通貨膨脹率很高，儲蓄率開始下降，股市遠低於高點。因此，儘管今天的背景是有利的，但我們看到經濟放緩在某些時候因信心水平下降而發展並不奇怪，這可能導致支出和商業投資減少。

There are a number of scenarios that may play out over the next several quarters. We are preparing for a range of possible outcomes by prudently managing credit, liquidity and capital so that we continue to grow within our through-the-cycle risk management framework and deliver industry-leading returns.

在接下來的幾個季度中，可能會出現多種情況。我們正在通過審慎管理信貸、流動性和資本來為一系列可能的結果做準備，以便我們繼續在我們的全週期風險管理框架內增長並提供行業領先的回報。

In summary, our investments are paying off. We remain diligent stewards of capital. Our balance sheet is strong, and our focus is firmly fixed on managing the company for the long term.

總之，我們的投資正在獲得回報。我們仍然是勤奮的資本管家。我們的資產負債表很強勁，我們的重點是長期管理公司。

I'll close by saying thank you to our employees. Your hard work and focus in doing the right thing for our customers and communities every day is recognized and appreciated.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工。您每天的辛勤工作和專注於為我們的客戶和社區做正確的事情得到了認可和讚賞。

We'll now open it up to Q&A.

我們現在將它打開以進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) John Pancari with Evercore is online for a question.

（操作員說明）Evercore 的 John Pancari 在線提問。

On your commentary around the CET1 falling to 8.3% at close but need to get back up to the 9% before you resume buybacks, can you give us a little more color on that in terms of timing around when you think you can reach that 9% with the PA accretion and how we should think about the magnitude of buybacks at that time?

關於您對 CET1 的評論在收盤時跌至 8.3%，但在您恢復回購之前需要回到 9%，您能否就您認為可以達到 9 的時間方面給我們更多的顏色PA 增加的百分比以及當時我們應該如何考慮回購的規模？

Yes. Thanks, John. So again, our expectation is a closing of 8.3%, but we do expect that, that will get to roughly 9% within about 4 quarters. And a big part of that will be, obviously, earnings growth driven by the accretion of the mark-to-market that will end up impacting earnings during that particular time frame. So our expectation and what we have been signaling in the past is that we would start our share buyback program once we get to that 9%. So about 4 quarters.

是的。謝謝，約翰。同樣，我們的預期是收盤價為 8.3%，但我們確實預計，這將在大約 4 個季度內達到大約 9%。很明顯，其中很大一部分將是由按市值計價的增長推動的收益增長，最終將在特定時間範圍內影響收益。因此，我們的期望以及我們過去一直在發出的信號是，一旦達到 9%，我們將開始我們的股票回購計劃。所以大約4個季度。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then just separately, can you just give us more color on the payments trends that you're seeing both in merchant processing and corporate payments businesses? And maybe if you could just talk about the potential moderation in activity there that you could see as the economy reacts to the Fed action.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後單獨地，您能否就您在商戶處理和企業支付業務中看到的支付趨勢給我們更多的色彩？如果你能談談經濟活動對美聯儲行動的反應，你可能會看到那裡的潛在活動放緩。

Yes. John, this is Andy. And it's interesting, from a credit card spend standpoint, while the categories of spend, as we've talked about before, have shifted a bit, the level of spend is still fairly strong, about 10% on a year-over-year basis and about 30% above pre-COVID levels. We did get impacted, as Terry noted in his prepared comments, by the FX rate of the pound in our merchant processing. And excluding that, our revenues would have been up just over 9%.

是的。約翰，這是安迪。有趣的是，從信用卡消費的角度來看，雖然我們之前談到的消費類別發生了一些變化，但消費水平仍然相當強勁，同比增長約 10%比疫情前水平高出約 30%。正如特里在他準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們確實受到了我們商戶處理中英鎊匯率的影響。不包括這一點，我們的收入將增長超過 9%。

We can -- we -- as well sort of a related topic, we see -- for 2 years, we have seen our consumer deposit levels by account increase. And as we mentioned last quarter, it's been flat. It's been flat for the second quarter and it's relatively flat, not down modestly, here in the third quarter. So we would expect some moderation of spend, but we're not seeing it yet.

我們可以 - 我們 - 以及類似的相關主題，我們看到 - 兩年來，我們已經看到我們的消費者存款水平按賬戶增加。正如我們上個季度提到的那樣，它一直持平。第二季度持平，第三季度相對持平，沒有適度下降。因此，我們預計支出會有所節制，但我們還沒有看到。

Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank is online with a question.

德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor 在線提問。

This is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. I just want to follow up quickly on the payments outlook. I think previously, you've talked about higher-than-normal year-over-year growth in the second half of this year before moderating to high single digits next year. Just to follow-up on what you were just talking about, does that guidance still make sense in this environment?

這是代表馬特奧康納的內森斯坦。我只想快速跟進付款前景。我認為，您之前曾談到今年下半年高於正常水平的同比增長，然後在明年放緩至高個位數。只是跟進你剛才所說的內容，這種指導在這種環境下仍然有意義嗎？

Yes. I mean our expectation is with respect to our payments revenues of high single digits. And we think that based upon what we are seeing with respect to consumer spend at this particular point in time that, that is still very realistic. As Andy said, relative to pre-COVID, volumes are continuing to be very strong. And while there is a bit of a shift with respect to where that spend is occurring, it's still continuing.

是的。我的意思是我們的期望是關於我們高個位數的支付收入。我們認為，根據我們在這個特定時間點看到的消費者支出情況，這仍然是非常現實的。正如安迪所說，相對於 COVID 之前，銷量繼續非常強勁。儘管支出發生的地點發生了一些變化，但仍在繼續。

The other thing is that where -- if and when transaction levels start to tail off, I think the impact of inflation will have an offsetting effect. So we still feel pretty confident about it.

另一件事是，如果交易水平開始下降以及何時開始下降，我認為通貨膨脹的影響將產生抵消作用。所以我們仍然對此充滿信心。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then one quick follow-up question. Can you just touch on the plan to manage the balance sheet post the deal closing, whenever that is? I think total assets were just above $600 billion at the end of this quarter. And with Union Bank, it will push you above the $700 billion threshold. So how are you thinking about that going forward?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是一個快速的後續問題。您能否談談在交易完成後管理資產負債表的計劃，無論何時？我認為本季度末總資產略高於 6000 億美元。與聯合銀行合作，它將推動您超過 7000 億美元的門檻。那麼你如何看待未來的發展？

Yes. Our expectation is that we'll continue to manage the balance sheet in a very prudent way, looking for and supporting relationships that are higher-profitable sort of relationships. Our expectation is that -- because I think where you're heading is really related to Cat II. Our expectation is that the earliest that we would get into that category is the end of 2024, but our ability to manage risk-weighted assets and balance sheet levels may extend that to some extent.

是的。我們的期望是，我們將繼續以非常謹慎的方式管理資產負債表，尋找和支持利潤更高的關係。我們的期望是——因為我認為你要去的地方真的與 Cat II 有關。我們的預期是，我們最早進入該類別的時間是 2024 年底，但我們管理風險加權資產和資產負債表水平的能力可能會在一定程度上擴大這一點。

Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo is online with a question.

富國銀行的 Mike Mayo 在線提問。

I think at a recent conference, you said that you will not achieve as much synergies from Union Bank next year as you originally thought, but no change in EPS guidance. Did I hear that correctly?

我認為在最近的一次會議上，你說你明年不會像你最初想像的那樣從聯合銀行獲得那麼多的協同效應，但每股收益指引沒有變化。我沒聽錯嗎？

Yes, that is correct. And if you think about the dynamics, Mike, while the timing has changed and the synergies associated with the $900 million of synergies that we expect to achieve when fully implemented, the timing will be offset to some extent by the accretion of the mark-to-market will be a little bit stronger. So we still feel pretty confident with respect to the accretion levels that we have guided in the past.

對，那是正確的。如果你考慮一下動態，邁克，雖然時間已經改變，與我們期望在完全實施後實現的 9 億美元協同效應相關的協同效應，時間將在一定程度上被標記的增加所抵消-市場會稍微強一些。因此，對於我們過去指導的吸積水平，我們仍然非常有信心。

Right. So instead of 75%, you said 40% to 45%?

正確的。所以你說的不是 75%，而是 40% 到 45%？

Yes. 40% to 50%.

是的。 40% 到 50%。

40% to 50% and 6% EPS-accretive. So if you're getting less merger synergies next year than you originally thought and you have the same EPS guidance, are you de facto increasing the end result of expected accretion from Union Bank?

40% 至 50% 和 6% 的每股收益增長。因此，如果您明年獲得的合併協同效應比您最初想像的要少，並且您擁有相同的每股收益指引，那麼您實際上是否增加了聯合銀行預期增長的最終結果？

Yes. I don't think that we're moving off of our estimates that we have provided in the past at this particular point in time. I think we need to get beyond the closing, the approval and then the closing before we, I think, would significantly change any estimates at this point.

是的。我不認為我們正在改變我們過去在這個特定時間點提供的估計。我認為我們需要超越關閉、批准和關閉，然後我認為我們會在這一點上顯著改變任何估計。

Okay. And any early guidance for next year? Some other banks are giving some general kind of guidepost for 2023 in terms of operating leverage, and your guidance is saying this would be some of the best operating leverage in over 5 years, I guess. And just trying to figure out how confident you are in that continuing. I know you invested for a number of years in the tech infrastructure, and now you hope to capitalize on that at a time when business is coming back. But how much follow-through should investors expect for this positive operating leverage?

好的。明年有什麼早期指導嗎？其他一些銀行在經營槓桿方面給出了 2023 年的某種通用指南，我猜你的指導是說這將是 5 年多來最好的經營槓桿。只是想弄清楚你對這種持續的信心有多大。我知道您在技術基礎設施上投資了多年，現在您希望在業務恢復時利用這一點。但是，投資者應該對這種積極的經營槓桿有多大的期望呢？

Yes. Mike, we're focused on positive operating leverage on a core basis, and we'll continue to achieve that. Next year has a fairly large moving part with Union Bank coming on. So that is going to be our top priority, is to make sure we successfully convert and integrate that in this company, which will allow for more positive operating leverage. But that -- we haven't provided any guidance update on that yet.

是的。邁克，我們在核心基礎上專注於積極的運營槓桿，我們將繼續實現這一目標。明年有一個相當大的移動部分，聯合銀行即將到來。所以這將是我們的首要任務，是確保我們成功地將其轉換並整合到這家公司，這將允許更積極的經營槓桿。但是——我們還沒有提供任何關於這方面的指導更新。

Erika Najarian from UBS is online with a question.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian 在線提問。

Terry, I'm going to have to ask you about the 8.3% pro forma CET1 that you mentioned you're estimating at close. I think I didn't realize that there has been a significant conversation in the market that perhaps has contributed to the 3-month underperformance with concern about the widening of the interest rate marks. So I think that at announcement, you were looking at a 50 basis point loan markup on UB's loan portfolio that you're bringing over.

特里，我將不得不問你關於你提到的 8.3% 的備考 CET1 的情況。我想我沒有意識到市場上有一場重要的對話，這可能導致了 3 個月表現不佳，擔心利率標記的擴大。因此，我認為在宣佈時，您正在查看您帶來的 UB 貸款組合的 50 個基點的貸款加價。

Given that a significant portion of that portfolio is resi, I think there was a lot of math being done in the buy side that was, let's say, 100 basis points lower than what you were giving us. So I guess my question here is how is The Street getting the math wrong? Or are there protections that are built into the deal? Or are there hedges on UB's balance sheet that seems to be protecting your pro forma CET1 from a greater day 1 mark relative to how interest rates have moved since announcement?

鑑於該投資組合的很大一部分是 resi，我認為買方正在做很多數學運算，比方說，比你給我們的要低 100 個基點。所以我想我的問題是，The Street 怎麼算錯了？還是交易中內置了保護措施？或者 UB 的資產負債表上是否有對沖似乎可以保護您的備考 CET1 相對於自宣布以來利率的變動情況而言，第 1 天大關？

Yes. I think it could be a combination of different things. I mean, for example, there is an expectation that they will deliver a certain level of tangible book value. And to the extent that their available-for-sale portfolio is impacted prior to the acquisition, there is kind of a make-whole provision within the agreement related to the available-for-sale securities. So that is part of it.

是的。我認為這可能是不同事物的組合。我的意思是，例如，人們期望它們將提供一定水平的有形賬面價值。如果他們的可出售投資組合在收購之前受到影響，那麼協議中有一種與可出售證券相關的整體條款。所以這是其中的一部分。

I think some of it could be just what the assumptions are related to the duration of the resi portfolio. And then again, we'll end up looking at and managing in this rate environment the balance sheet as prudently as we can to ensure that we are allocating capital to the appropriate businesses during this time frame. So it's a combination of a different -- a variety of different things, Erika.

我認為其中一些可能正是與 resi 投資組合持續時間相關的假設。再說一次，我們最終將在這種利率環境下盡可能謹慎地查看和管理資產負債表，以確保我們在這段時間內將資金分配給適當的業務。所以這是一個不同的組合——各種不同的東西，Erika。

Got it. So I guess that's the question -- as a follow-up question, that $6.25 billion that they have to deliver, there's a make-whole provision on the AFS portfolio but not on the loan portfolio, I'm presuming, is what you're saying, Terry?

知道了。所以我想這就是問題——作為一個後續問題，他們必須交付的 62.5 億美元，在 AFS 投資組合中有一個整體撥備，但在貸款投資組合中沒有，我猜，這就是你的再說，特里？

That is true. Yes.

那是真實的。是的。

Got it. Is there -- and I'm presuming also there's a potential CDI offset at close that could help offset. But obviously, that would be a higher amortization cost in day 2 and after?

知道了。有嗎 - 我假設還有一個潛在的 CDI 抵消可能有助於抵消。但顯然，這會是第 2 天及之後更高的攤銷成本嗎？

Yes. I mean it's a combination of a whole variety of things. I mean it's not only the interest rate marks, but it's what does the loan portfolio look like in terms of overall quality relative to kind of what our original estimates were. We think that, that is slightly better than CDI. I mean you have to look at all of the different moving parts in terms of coming up with what we think the final impact of the mark-to-market is going to be.

是的。我的意思是它是各種事物的組合。我的意思是，這不僅是利率標記，而且是相對於我們最初估計的整體質量而言，貸款組合的樣子。我們認為，這比 CDI 略好。我的意思是，你必須考慮所有不同的活動部分，才能得出我們認為按市價計算的最終影響將是什麼。

Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research is online with a question.

Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache 在線提問。

So we saw a nice remixing out of available-for-sale into held-to-maturity. Wanted to follow up on that and more specifically, whether there's room for you to take the mix of available-for-sale higher. It'd be helpful if you could just give some color on what guides your decision on how high the HTM mix can go.

因此，我們看到了從可供出售到持有至到期的很好的重新組合。想要跟進這一點，更具體地說，是否有空間讓您將可出售的組合提高。如果您可以提供一些顏色來指導您決定 HTM 混合可以達到多高，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. Great question, Bill. So today, we're currently at about 53% held-to-maturity versus available-for-sale. And we moved some securities in early July when rates dipped that allowed us to be able to kind of increase that percentage.

是的。好問題，比爾。所以今天，我們目前持有至到期與可供出售的比例約為 53%。我們在 7 月初利率下降時轉移了一些證券，這使我們能夠提高該百分比。

The other thing that we take into consideration is the fact that with respect to the AFS portfolio, there's also floating rate securities that have very little impact with respect to AOCI. So when you end up combining that together, it's about 60% that is protected -- substantially protected from movements in interest rates. So think about it almost as a 60-40 sort of split in terms of the sensitivity to interest rates.

我們考慮的另一件事是，對於 AFS 投資組合，還有浮動利率證券對 AOCI 的影響很小。因此，當你最終將這些結合在一起時，大約有 60% 受到保護——基本上不受利率變動的影響。因此，就對利率的敏感性而言，幾乎可以將其視為 60-40 的分裂。

And is there opportunity? I mean we'll continue to look at whether that makes sense relative to our balance sheet positioning. But at least right now, we feel pretty comfortable with that mix. It gives us the AOCI protection as well as some flexibility with respect to managing the balance sheet.

還有機會嗎？我的意思是，我們將繼續研究這相對於我們的資產負債表定位是否有意義。但至少現在，我們對這種組合感覺很舒服。它為我們提供了 AOCI 保護以及管理資產負債表的一些靈活性。

And then the other thing you have to kind of think about is that we have Union Bank that hopefully we'll be closing on here in the fourth quarter. And that ends up influencing decisions that we make with respect to the positioning of the balance sheet and -- excuse me, of the securities portfolio. And then also with respect to deposits, we're going to have a significant amount of deposits coming on, and that's going to help us as well.

然後你必須考慮的另一件事是我們有聯合銀行，希望我們能在第四季度結束。這最終會影響我們就資產負債表的定位做出的決定，以及 - 對不起，證券投資組合的決定。然後在存款方面，我們將會有大量的存款，這也會對我們有所幫助。

Very helpful. And then separately, I wanted to follow up on funding and more specifically, the decrease in noninterest-bearing deposits. Is it reasonable to expect that your mix of noninterest-bearing deposits is going to gradually revert to pre-COVID levels as the Fed proceeds with QT? Maybe if you could address that, if you have any view sort of at the industry level and then specifically for USB.

非常有幫助。然後另外，我想跟進資金，更具體地說，是無息存款的減少。隨著美聯儲繼續實施 QT，您的無息存款組合將逐漸恢復到 COVID 之前的水平是否合理？也許如果你能解決這個問題，如果你有任何行業層面的觀點，然後是專門針對 USB 的。

Yes. Well, I certainly think that QT is going to put pressure on deposits overall. And as interest rates rise, you'll continue to see a shift out of noninterest-bearing toward interest-bearing. Whether -- I mean, I think that the assumption with respect to pre-COVID may make sense depending upon how much they bring their balance sheet down, et cetera, how much liquidity they leave in the system.

是的。好吧，我當然認為 QT 將對整體存款施加壓力。隨著利率上升，您將繼續看到從無息向有息的轉變。是否 - 我的意思是，我認為關於 COVID 之前的假設可能有意義，這取決於他們將資產負債表降低了多少，等等，他們在系統中留下了多少流動性。

With respect to us, it probably -- if I had to make estimates, I would say that it probably stays a little bit better than where it was pre-pandemic in part because we've grown our consumer portfolio, which tends to offset that. And then we've also worked hard to focus within our corporate trust business on retaining those deposits that are more operational in nature. And as -- because they're more operational in nature, they tend to be more noninterest-bearing as opposed to interest-bearing.

就我們而言，它可能——如果我必須做出估計，我會說它可能比大流行前的情況要好一些，部分原因是我們已經擴大了我們的消費者組合，這往往抵消了這一點.然後，我們還努力在我們的公司信託業務中專注於保留那些本質上更具操作性的存款。而且 - 因為它們在本質上更具操作性，它們往往是不計息的，而不是計息的。

That makes sense. And sticking with that theme, in terms of the mix of debt relative to your overall funding, that's still well below fourth quarter '19 levels. Can you speak to the likelihood that we should expect that to gradually remix to -- back to pre-COVID levels?

那講得通。堅持這個主題，就債務相對於你的整體資金而言，這仍然遠低於 19 年第四季度的水平。您能否談談我們應該期望它逐漸重新混合到 - 回到 COVID 之前的水平的可能性？

Yes. Again, I think the broad assumption would be fair. But again, keep in mind that Union Bank is going to be coming on. And they have a significant -- they actually have a higher percentage within their deposit base that's consumer-based. And so I think you have to kind of look at the entire mix. And I think we're going to be -- U.S. Bank, I think, specifically is probably going to be in a better position than we were pre-pandemic.

是的。同樣，我認為廣泛的假設是公平的。但同樣，請記住，聯合銀行將會出現。他們有一個重要的 - 他們實際上在他們的存款基礎中以消費者為基礎的比例更高。所以我認為你必須看看整個組合。而且我認為我們將成為-我認為，美國銀行尤其可能會比大流行前處於更好的位置。

That's great. Finally, if I could squeeze in one last one. Could you speak to your ability to bring off-balance-sheet money market funds back on balance sheet, maybe some of the dynamics surrounding that?

那太棒了。最後，如果我能擠上最後一個。您能否談談您將表外貨幣市場基金帶回資產負債表的能力，也許是圍繞這一點的一些動態？

Yes. Great question. So currently, we have about -- roughly $130 billion in money market funds. And that is a business that's very tied to our institutional investor services business. Based upon what we need to do from a funding perspective, we have the ability from a pricing point of view to bring that back on balance sheet or off balance sheet, but it's pricing decisions that then influence customer behavior. And it is a great source for us from a funding standpoint as there is more pressure on deposits going forward.

是的。好問題。所以目前，我們有大約 - 大約 1300 億美元的貨幣市場基金。這是一項與我們的機構投資者服務業務密切相關的業務。根據我們從資金角度需要做的事情，從定價的角度來看，我們有能力將其帶回資產負債表或資產負債表外，但定價決策會影響客戶行為。從資金的角度來看，這對我們來說是一個很好的來源，因為未來的存款壓力更大。

Gerard Cassidy with RBC is online with a question.

RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 在線提問。

Terry, I think in your comments, you talked about the residential mortgage business, and the gain-on-sale margins were lower. And I think you referenced there's still excess capacity in that line of business. Can you share with us your outlook? Are you seeing some of that capacity coming out in the fourth quarter if rates remain elevated for the refi activity, of course, being negatively affected by elevated long-term rates?

特里，我認為在您的評論中，您談到了住宅抵押貸款業務，銷售利潤率較低。而且我認為您提到該業務線仍有產能過剩。你能和我們分享你的看法嗎？如果再融資活動的利率保持高位，你是否看到第四季度會出現一些產能，當然，受到長期利率上升的負面影響？

Yes. We certainly are seeing capacity come down in the industry. I think you've seen various announcements of bank and nonbank mortgage operations kind of pulling back or reducing capacity. I think it probably still needs to reset to some extent, what's happening with rising rates and the impact that it might have on both refinancing as well as home sales, but we do see it coming down.

是的。我們當然看到該行業的產能下降。我想你已經看到了各種關於銀行和非銀行抵押貸款業務的公告，它們都在縮減或減少容量。我認為它可能仍需要在某種程度上重新調整利率上升的情況以及它可能對再融資和房屋銷售產生的影響，但我們確實看到它正在下降。

Our expectation is that gain-on-sale margins stabilize and, probably for us, improve a bit. In the third quarter, our gain-on-sale was down maybe a little bit more than what we had anticipated. But about half of that is really driven by the mix between correspondent and retail. And the other half of it is really more revenue recognition, some timing issues and some secondary kind of market valuation issues, which we think will reverse a bit.

我們的預期是銷售利潤率穩定下來，而且對我們來說可能會有所改善。在第三季度，我們的銷售收益下降可能比我們預期的要多一點。但其中大約一半實際上是由代理和零售之間的混合驅動的。另一半確實是更多的收入確認，一些時間問題和一些次要的市場估值問題，我們認為這些問題會有所逆轉。

Very good. I saw when we looked at your average loan portfolio, obviously, you had some very nice growth in C&I, very strong growth year-over-year. We're hearing some market chatter, and I don't know if it's just the equity REITs are squawking. But apparently, the commercial real estate mortgage business might be a little more or less liquid today. Any color that you guys can offer on what you're seeing in commercial mortgage real estate? Is it an area that you're pulling back some? I know you had growth, but maybe some color and insights on what you're hearing and seeing and what your views are for that business?

很好。我看到當我們查看您的平均貸款組合時，很明顯，您的 C&I 增長非常好，同比增長非常強勁。我們聽到了一些市場傳言，我不知道這是否只是股權 REITs 的喧囂。但顯然，今天的商業房地產抵押貸款業務可能或多或少具有流動性。你們在商業抵押房地產中看到的任何顏色都可以提供嗎？這是一個你要撤回的領域嗎？我知道您有成長，但也許對您所聽到和看到的內容以及您對該業務的看法有一些色彩和見解？

Yes. Certainly, with respect to commercial real estate, it's an important business for us and one that we'll continue to be very focused on. I think part of it is just dynamics in the marketplace. If you end up looking at the large corporate REIT sort of financing, I -- we continue to lend in that particular space. We actually probably saw some growth in the third quarter.

是的。當然，就商業房地產而言，這對我們來說是一項重要的業務，我們將繼續非常關注這一業務。我認為其中一部分只是市場的動態。如果你最終看到大型企業房地產投資信託基金類型的融資，我 - 我們將繼續在該特定領域提供貸款。我們實際上可能在第三季度看到了一些增長。

But we do know homebuilders are starting to pull back and even making decisions to maybe pull out of potential projects that they were planning on doing. And then in the middle market space in terms of commercial real estate, it's actually still from a pricing standpoint pretty competitive and people extending terms associated with that. And that's the space that we're not comfortable with at this particular point in the cycle. So we're seeing a little bit of pressure maybe in the middle market space, but we're fine with that.

但我們確實知道，房屋建築商開始退縮，甚至做出可能退出他們計劃進行的潛在項目的決定。然後在商業房地產的中間市場空間中，從定價的角度來看，它實際上仍然非常具有競爭力，並且人們延長了與此相關的條款。這就是我們在周期的這個特定點上不舒服的空間。因此，我們可能在中間市場領域看到了一些壓力，但我們對此很好。

Ken Usdin with Jefferies is online with a question.

Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 在線提問。

Terry, I wanted to just ask a little bit more on the whole outlook for deposits. I know you talked about the mix. Just wondering what you guys are seeing given the fact that you have a little bit of a different mix versus most of the peers in terms of -- any updates on what you're thinking about where betas eventually go to, just given that we're in a completely different rate regime than we might have all thought 6 months ago?

特里，我想就存款的整體前景多問一點。我知道你談到了混合。只是想知道你們看到了什麼，因為與大多數同行相比，你們有一點不同的組合——任何關於你們正在考慮的 beta 最終去向的更新，只是考慮到我們與我們 6 個月前所想的完全不同的利率制度？

Yes. Well, maybe I'll kind of start just by reiterating if we end up looking at the mix of our deposit base, it has changed a little bit relative to maybe what we were 3, 4 years ago, et cetera. Certainly, when we went through the last rate rising cycle, a little stronger consumer, a little more focus around operational deposits within our trust business, et cetera.

是的。好吧，也許我會首先重申一下，如果我們最終查看存款基礎的組合，它可能相對於我們 3、4 年前的情況發生了一些變化，等等。當然，當我們經歷上一個加息週期時，消費者會更加強大，更加關注我們信託業務中的運營存款等等。

Trust is also -- on a relative basis represents only about 15% of our deposit base today. And then again, think about Union Bank coming on and some of the dynamics that, that will bring. But coming back to deposit betas then maybe with that context, we're actually performing probably better than what we might have expected. I think deposit betas were about -- in the second quarter, about 30% coming up from about 20%. We would expect that to be maybe in the high 30s as we get into the fourth quarter.

信任也是 - 在相對基礎上僅占我們今天存款基礎的 15% 左右。再一次，想想聯合銀行的到來以及將會帶來的一些動態。但是回到存款測試版之後，也許在這種情況下，我們實際上的表現可能比我們預期的要好。我認為存款測試版大約在第二季度，從大約 20% 上升到大約 30%。當我們進入第四季度時，我們預計這可能會達到 30 多歲。

But certainly, as rates continue to rise and if Fed continues to be very aggressive, it's going to migrate to higher percentages. Our through-the-cycle estimate right now is still kind of mid-30s, but we kind of think about the entire rate cycle that we're going through.

但可以肯定的是，隨著利率繼續上升，如果美聯儲繼續非常激進，它將轉向更高的百分比。我們現在對整個週期的估計仍然是 30 年代中期，但我們會考慮我們正在經歷的整個利率週期。

Okay. And then as a follow-up to that, so as that plays forward, you're still expecting good NII growth into the fourth quarter. Can NII -- I know you're not giving '23 guidance, but just can you help us understand like what is the gives and takes to make -- can you still grow NII post the fourth quarter sequentially? Or is there just a reality check about some of these mix and beta functions that make that tougher?

好的。然後作為後續行動，隨著這種情況的發展，您仍然預計第四季度的 NII 增長良好。 NII ——我知道你沒有給出 23 年的指導，但你能幫助我們理解付出和付出的代價——你還能在第四季度之後繼續增長 NII 嗎？還是只是對其中一些混合和測試功能進行了現實檢查，這使得這變得更加困難？

Yes. Well, I think that we can continue to grow NII as we get beyond the fourth quarter. What I would say, though, is that probably the pace of growth changes in the industry, and that will be a function of -- it will be a function of the deposit betas changing. And the loan growth that certainly the industry has been experiencing, I think, is very strong. I don't know whether it will keep that particular base as we kind of continue to move forward.

是的。好吧，我認為我們可以在第四季度之後繼續增長 NII。不過，我想說的是，這可能是行業增長速度的變化，這將是一個函數——它將是存款貝塔值變化的函數。我認為，該行業一直在經歷的貸款增長非常強勁。我不知道隨著我們繼續前進，它是否會保留那個特定的基礎。

Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley is online with a question.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck 在線提問。

On your own securities [portfolio], it would be helpful -- maybe you could give us a sense as to how we should be thinking about the pull to par in the AFS book. Like if -- I know it's a big if, but if rates don't change from here, how many quarters or years is it that we should be baking into our models?

在您自己的證券 [投資組合] 中，這會有所幫助——也許您可以讓我們了解我們應該如何考慮 AFS 書中的拉動面值。就像如果——我知道這是一個很大的假設，但如果利率沒有從這裡改變，我們應該在我們的模型中烘焙多少個季度或幾年？

Yes. Well, I think what we have said is that the duration of the portfolio is a little over 5 years. So if you think about that, I think that probably gives you some guide with respect to how AOCI kind of comes into the capital equation.

是的。好吧，我認為我們所說的是投資組合的持續時間略高於 5 年。因此，如果您考慮一下，我認為這可能會給您一些關於 AOCI 如何進入資本方程式的指導。

Okay. So it should -- it's like a longer than 5-year period?

好的。所以它應該 - 它就像一個超過 5 年的時間？

Yes. A little bit longer but not much.

是的。有點長，但不多。

Okay. And is there anything you're thinking about with regard to restructuring the books once Union Bank comes on?

好的。一旦聯合銀行成立，你有什麼關於重組賬簿的想法嗎？

Yes. It's -- again, we'll take a look at all of the balance sheet and kind of see where it makes sense. We do expect that we might remix the securities portfolio when it comes on. We may end up increasing HTM as a result of what we bring over, et cetera. So it is definitely something we will take a look at.

是的。這是 - 再次，我們將看看所有的資產負債表，看看它在哪裡有意義。我們確實預計，當它出現時，我們可能會重新組合證券投資組合。由於我們帶來的結果，我們最終可能會增加 HTM，等等。因此，這絕對是我們將要研究的東西。

And then just separately on the consumer lens that you have in the payment side. Could you just give us a sense as to what you saw in 3Q? I know 3Q tends to be a relatively strong quarter for you. Any changes in behavior? Any insights as to how you think 4Q will end up shaping up?

然後單獨在支付端的消費者鏡頭上。您能否讓我們了解一下您在第三季度看到的情況？我知道 3Q 對你來說往往是一個相對強勁的季度。行為有什麼變化嗎？關於您認為 4Q 最終將如何形成的任何見解？

So Betsy, the consumer spend levels overall continue to be strong. They were up -- and credit card spend about 10% on a year-over-year basis, about 30% above pre-COVID levels. The mix of categories has changed a bit, consistent with what we've talked about before, a little bit away from hard goods to more services and a little bit away from nondiscretionary -- to nondiscretionary from discretionary. So that shift in spend that we have been discussing continues, but the overall levels are also still very strong.

因此，Betsy 總體而言，消費者支出水平繼續保持強勁。他們上升了——信用卡支出同比增長約 10%，比 COVID 之前的水平高出約 30%。類別的組合發生了一些變化，與我們之前討論過的一致，從硬商品轉向更多服務，從非自由裁量品到非自由裁量品。因此，我們一直在討論的支出轉變仍在繼續，但總體水平也仍然非常強勁。

And the savings levels of the consumers are hanging in there?

消費者的儲蓄水平還在嗎？

Yes, Betsy. So I mentioned that we saw increases across all stratas of balances for about 2 years, but the last 2 quarters have been stable across all the categories. So not growing anymore, but not shrinking dramatically as well.

是的，貝茜。所以我提到我們看到所有層次的餘額在大約 2 年內都有所增加，但過去兩個季度所有類別的餘額都保持穩定。所以不再增長，但也沒有急劇萎縮。

Ken, I just want to clarify something with respect to deposit betas just to make sure that I've got the percentages right. The deposit betas in the second quarter were about 20%. Deposit betas in the third quarter were just shy of 30%. And we would expect that increase to continue as rates rise and to accelerate a bit, and again, probably in the high 30s when we get into the fourth quarter.

Ken，我只是想澄清一些關於存款測試的事情，以確保我的百分比是正確的。第二季度的存款貝塔係數約為 20%。第三季度的存款貝塔係數略低於 30%。我們預計，隨著利率的上升，這種增長將繼續下去，並再次加速，可能會在我們進入第四季度時達到 30 多歲。

We have no further questions at this time. I will now turn it back to George Andersen. Please continue.

目前我們沒有其他問題。我現在將它轉回給喬治安徒生。請繼續。

Thank you for listening to our earnings call. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

感謝您收聽我們的財報電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係部。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。