雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lateef, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 RTX 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫拉蒂夫 (Lateef)，今天我將擔任您的接線生。提醒一下，本次會議將會被錄音以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www.rtx.com.

參加今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Greg Hayes；總裁兼營運長 Chris Calio；尼爾米切爾 (Neil Mitchill)，財務長；以及投資者關係副總裁珍妮佛里德 (Jennifer Reed)。本次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您可以從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX's SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和淨非經常性和/或重大項目，管理層通常將其稱為其他重大項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。 RTX 向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件（包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格）詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素（操作員指示）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給海耶斯先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. It was another strong quarter for RTX with continued strength across all of our end markets. On the commercial aerospace side, industry-wide, we saw 1,200 new orders announced around the Paris Air Show. This is the largest number of orders in the history of the air show, as airlines look to secure production slots well into the next decade.

謝謝大家，早安。對於 RTX 來說，這又是一個強勁的季度，我們所有的終端市場都持續保持強勁勢頭。在商用航空方面，我們看到整個產業在巴黎航展期間宣布了 1,200 份新訂單。這是航展史上訂單數量最多的一次，航空公司希望在未來十年內確保生產時段。

Global commercial air traffic remains on track with our projections with a very robust summer travel season, driven by incredibly strong consumer demand. This dynamic is supporting strength in the aftermarket and growth across the globe with revenue passenger kilometers now tracking at about 95% of 2019 levels. And long-haul international, which has lagged in the recovery, is showing strong growth with passenger flight hours up 18 points year-over-year, a good indicator of increasing demand for wide-body travel.

全球商業航空運輸量仍符合我們的預測，在強勁的消費者需求的推動下，夏季旅遊旺季非常活躍。這項動態支撐了售後市場的強勁成長和全球的成長，目前客運收入公里數已達到 2019 年水準的 95% 左右。復甦中落後的長途國際航班則呈現強勁成長，客運飛行小時數年增 18 個百分點，這是寬體飛機旅行需求不斷增長的良好指標。

Turning to defense. We're pleased that the House Defense Appropriation bill fully funds many of our programs, including, importantly, the F135 engine core upgrade, which is the only engine funded for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Additionally, the bill also recommends the full budget request for other key RTX programs, such as LTAMDS, LRSO, hypersonics and Standard Missile-3.

轉向防守。我們很高興眾議院國防撥款法案為我們的許多項目提供了全額資金，其中包括重要的F135發動機核心升級，這是為F-35聯合攻擊戰鬥機提供資金的唯一發動機。此外，該法案還建議為其他關鍵 RTX 項目（如 LTAMDS、LRSO、高超音速和標準飛彈-3）提出全額預算申請。

Internationally, we saw the State Department approve a large sale of advanced air defense systems for Poland as it bolsters its security amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This would expand our existing partnership with Poland and make Poland the first international customer for our LTAMDS system, representing a key transition for this next-generation Raytheon franchise.

在國際上，我們看到美國國務院批准向波蘭出售大量先進的防空系統，以加強其在烏克蘭持續衝突中的安全。這將擴大我們與波蘭現有的合作夥伴關係，並使波蘭成為我們 LTAMDS 系統的第一個國際客戶，代表雷神公司下一代特許經營權的關鍵轉變。

Before we get into details of the quarter, as you saw in our press release this morning, we are working through an issue resulting from a rare condition in powdered metal that will require Pratt & Whitney to remove some engines from service for inspection earlier than expected.

在我們了解本季的細節之前，正如您在我們今天上午的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們正在解決因金屬粉末中出現罕見情況而導致的問題，這將要求普惠公司比預期更早地停止使用一些引擎進行檢查。

I want to make just a couple of comments here at the outset. First of all, it's important to know that we understand the issue, and we have begun to address it through an inspection protocol that we already have in place. That said, clearly, this will have an impact on Pratt & Whitney and our customers. Chris and Neil will provide additional color later in the call on how we're going to address the issue as well as the operational and financial impacts. As you'd expect, we'll dedicate all the necessary resources to manage this.

首先，我只想發表幾點評論。首先，重要的是要知道我們了解這個問題，並且我們已經開始透過已經實施的檢查協議來解決這個問題。話雖如此，但這顯然會對普惠公司和我們的客戶產生影響。克里斯和尼爾將在稍後的電話會議中進一步說明我們將如何解決這個問題以及其對營運和財務的影響。正如您所期望的，我們將投入所有必要的資源來管理此事。

Now let's turn to Slide 2 to go through some key highlights from the quarter. Q2 was another strong quarter of strong demand in both the commercial and defense segments of our business with $25 billion of new orders. This brings our total backlog to a record $185 billion. On the commercial side, Collins continues to convert its industry-leading portfolio into solid order strength. As I mentioned, industry-wide, there were about 1,200 new aircraft orders announced in Paris. The aggregate amount of Collins and Pratt content on those aircraft will be about $20 billion for the life of the programs.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 2 來了解本季的一些主要亮點。第二季度是我們商業和國防業務需求強勁的另一個季度，新訂單總額達 250 億美元。這使得我們的總積壓金額達到了創紀錄的 1850 億美元。在商業方面，柯林斯繼續將其領先業界的產品組合轉化為雄厚的訂單實力。正如我所提到的，整個產業在巴黎宣布了大約 1,200 架新飛機訂單。在這些飛機計畫的整個生命週期內，柯林斯和普惠公司在這些飛機上的投資總額將達到約 200 億美元。

On the defense side, across the RTX businesses, we captured $13 billion in new bookings in the quarter, driving a strong book-to-bill of 1.22, and this takes our defense backlog to $73 billion.

在國防方面，在整個 RTX 業務中，我們在本季度獲得了 130 億美元的新訂單，推動訂單出貨比達到 1.22，這使我們的國防積壓訂單達到 730 億美元。

Contributing to the backlog in the second quarter were a number of significant awards, including $2 billion at Pratt & Whitney for the Lot 17 of the F135 engines and $1.5 billion for 117 sustainment.

導致第二季度訂單積壓的因素包括多項重大合同，包括普惠公司為第 17 批 F135 發動機授予的 20 億美元合同，以及為 117 批發動機維護授予的 15 億美元合同。

The Raytheon segment was awarded its largest-ever AMRAAM contract for $1.2 billion from the U.S. Air Force and international partners, including Ukraine. The AMRAAMs will work in concert with their existing NASAMS batteries to help protect the Ukrainian people.

雷神公司獲得了美國空軍和包括烏克蘭在內的國際合作夥伴授予的迄今為止最大的一份 AMRAAM 合同，價值 12 億美元。 AMRAAM 將與現有的 NASAMS 飛彈連協同工作，幫助保護烏克蘭人民。

Earlier this month, we executed the business realignment. We are now officially operating as 3 business units. Our team has done a tremendous job in a relatively short period of time, shifting roughly $3 billion of sales and thousands of employees across our portfolio to better meet the evolving needs of our customers. Of course, our transformation isn't done. We will continue to develop initiatives to better leverage our scale and breadth and to enable operational excellence and a best-in-class cost structure.

本月初，我們進行了業務調整。我們現在正式以 3 個業務部門營運。我們的團隊在相對較短的時間內完成了大量的工作，轉移了大約 30 億美元的銷售額和我們投資組合中的數千名員工，以更好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。當然，我們的轉變還沒有完成。我們將繼續制定計劃，更好地利用我們的規模和廣度，實現卓越的營運和一流的成本結構。

Finally, as many of you saw last week, we agreed to divest Collins' actuation business to Safran. We expect this deal to close in the second half of 2024 and the proceeds from the transaction will be about $1.8 billion.

最後，正如你們許多人上週看到的那樣，我們同意將柯林斯的執行機構業務剝離給賽峰集團。我們預計交易將於 2024 年下半年完成，交易收益約為 18 億美元。

With respect to our full year outlook, we're going to raise the top line to reflect the strength we're seeing in our end markets. The new range will be $73 billion to $74 billion. And we're also going to bring up the bottom end of our adjusted EPS range by $0.05 to $4.95 to $5.05. However, we are going to reduce our 2023 cash flow expectations by $500 million to $4.3 billion. This is primarily to reflect the developments at Pratt & Whitney that I discussed earlier.

關於我們的全年展望，我們將提高營收，以反映我們在終端市場看到的強勁表現。新的範圍將為 730 億美元至 740 億美元。我們也將把調整後的每股盈餘範圍的底端上調 0.05 美元，至 4.95 美元至 5.05 美元。不過，我們將把 2023 年的現金流預期下調 5 億美元，至 43 億美元。這主要是為了反映我之前討論過的普惠公司的發展。

So with that, let me turn it over to Neil to walk you through our financial results in more detail. Neil?

因此，讓我將主題交給 Neil，讓他更詳細地向您介紹我們的財務表現。尼爾？

Thanks, Greg. Let's look at Q2 results on Slide 3. As Greg noted, we had another solid quarter with sales of $18.3 billion, up a strong 13% organically versus the prior year with growth across all 4 of our segments. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 was up 11% year-over-year, with strong adjusted segment operating profit growth of 26%, partially offset by lower pension income and a higher effective tax rate.

謝謝，格雷格。讓我們來看看幻燈片 3 上的第二季業績。正如 Greg 所指出的，我們又度過了一個穩健的季度，銷售額達到 183 億美元，與上年相比有機增長了 13%，我們所有 4 個部門都實現了增長。調整後每股收益為 1.29 美元，年增 11%，調整後分部營業利潤強勁增長 26%，但退休金收入下降和有效稅率上升部分抵消了這一增長。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.90 per share and included $0.26 of acquisition accounting adjustments, an $0.08 charge related to an airline customer insolvency and $0.05 of restructuring and segment and portfolio transformation costs. Free cash flow of $193 million was generally in line with what we discussed when we were together in Paris last month.

根據 GAAP 計算，持續經營每股收益為 0.90 美元，其中包括 0.26 美元的收購會計調整、0.08 美元的航空公司客戶破產相關費用以及 0.05 美元的重組、部門和投資組合轉型成本。 1.93 億美元的自由現金流與我們上個月在巴黎討論的內容基本一致。

And finally, on the capital allocation front, we repurchased $596 million in shares, putting us at about $1.2 billion year-to-date, on track for $3 billion in share repurchases for the full year.

最後，在資本配置方面，我們回購了價值 5.96 億美元的股票，年初至今的股票回購總額約為 12 億美元，全年股票回購總額可望達到 30 億美元。

So let's turn to Slide 4 to get into the Q2 segment results. Beginning with RMD, sales were $4 billion in the quarter, up 12% on an adjusted basis and 13% organically, primarily driven by higher volume from Air Power, Advanced Technology and Land Warfare & Air Defense programs. Adjusted operating profit of $427 million was up $79 million versus the prior year, driven by favorable net program efficiencies and drop-through on higher volume, partially offset by unfavorable mix resulting from early-stage production programs.

讓我們翻到投影片 4 來了解第二季的細分結果。從 RMD 開始，本季銷售額為 40 億美元，調整後成長 12%，有機成長 13%，主要得益於空中力量、先進技術以及陸戰與防空專案的銷售增加。調整後的營業利潤為 4.27 億美元，較上年增加 7,900 萬美元，這得益於良好的淨項目效率和更高產量帶來的利潤下降，但早期生產項目導致的不利組合部分抵消了這一影響。

RMD had $3.6 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $35 billion. In addition to the AMRAAM award that Greg mentioned earlier, RMD also received a $265 million award for Javelin and a $251 million award for AIM-9X missiles. Year-to-date, RMD has a book-to-bill of 1.17.

RMD 本季的訂單量為 36 億美元，訂單出貨比為 0.92，積壓訂單量為 350 億美元。除了格雷格之前提到的 AMRAAM 獎項之外，RMD 還獲得了 2.65 億美元的 Javelin 導彈獎項和 2.51 億美元的 AIM-9X 導彈獎項。年初至今，RMD 的訂單出貨比為 1.17。

Shifting to RI&S on Slide 5. Sales of $3.7 billion were up 2% versus the prior year on an adjusted and organic basis. This was driven by higher revenue from Sensing & Effects as well as Cyber & Services programs, which was partially offset by lower sales from Command, Control & Communications programs.

轉到投影片 5 上的 RI&S。銷售額為 37 億美元，按調整後和有機計算比上年增長 2%。這是由於感測與效應以及網路與服務項目的收入增加所致，但被指揮、控制與通訊項目銷售額的下降部分抵消。

Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $297 million was down $18 million versus prior year, primarily due to unfavorable mix and higher operating expenses, which more than offset improved productivity and drop-through on higher volume. However, as I mentioned in June, we still saw unfavorable productivity in the quarter due to a handful of fixed price development programs.

本季調整後的營業利潤為 2.97 億美元，較上年同期下降 1,800 萬美元，主要原因是產品組合不利以及營運費用增加，抵消了生產力提高和銷售下降的影響。然而，正如我在六月提到的那樣，由於少數固定價格開發計劃，本季我們的生產力仍然不佳。

In the quarter, RI&S had $3.1 billion of bookings, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.96 and a backlog of $17 billion. Bookings in Q2 at RI&S included about $1.1 billion in classified awards and $322 million for federal and civil cyber defense services. And on a year-to-date basis, RI&S has a book-to-bill of 1.15.

本季度，RI&S 的訂單量為 31 億美元，訂單出貨比為 0.96，積壓訂單量為 170 億美元。 RI&S 第二季的訂單包括約 11 億美元的機密獎項和 3.22 億美元的聯邦和民用網路防禦服務。從年初至今，RI&S 的訂單出貨比為 1.15。

Turning to Collins on Slide 6. Sales were $5.9 billion in the quarter, up 17% on an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by strong demand across commercial aerospace end markets, which resulted in higher flight hours and higher OE production rates. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 29%, driven by a 68% increase in provisioning and a 28% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 9% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 7%.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的柯林斯。本季銷售額為 59 億美元，按調整後和有機基礎計算增長 17%，主要受商業航空終端市場的強勁需求推動，這導致飛行小時數增加和 OE 生產率提高。按通路劃分，商業售後市場銷售額成長 29%，其中，供應成長 68%，零件和維修成長 28%，而本季改裝和升級有機成長 9%。商業售後市場銷售額較上季成長 7%。

On the commercial OE side, commercial OE sales were up 14% versus the prior year, which included growth in wide-body, narrow-body and business jets. And military sales were up 5% due to higher development volume. Adjusted operating profit of $837 million was up $220 million or 36% from the prior year with drop-through on higher sales volume and favorable mix, which more than offset higher production costs as well as higher R&D and SG&A expenses.

在商用 OE 方面，商用 OE 銷售額較上年同期成長 14%，其中包括寬體、窄體和公務機的成長。由於開發量增加，軍事銷售額增加了 5%。調整後的營業利潤為 8.37 億美元，比上年增加 2.2 億美元（36%），原因是銷售量增加和產品組合有利，這足以抵消生產成本以及研發和銷售、一般及行政費用增加的影響。

Turning to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 7. Sales of $5.7 billion were up 15% on an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across the commercial segments, partially offset by lower military volume. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 26% in the quarter due to higher shop visit volume and content in both large commercial engine and Pratt & Whitney Canada businesses. Commercial OE sales were up 22% in the quarter on higher engine deliveries and favorable mix.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的普惠公司。銷售額為 57 億美元，按調整後和有機基礎計算增長了 15%，其中商業部門的銷售額有所增長，但軍用銷量的下降部分抵消了這一增長。由於大型商用引擎和普惠加拿大業務的進店量和內容增加，本季商用售後市場銷售額成長了 26%。由於引擎交付量增加和產品組合良好，本季商用 OE 銷售額成長了 22%。

And in the military business, sales were down 3%. The decline in sales was driven by the timing of the F135 production contract award in the prior year, which was partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume this year. Adjusted operating profit of $436 million was up $133 million from prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales and favorable large commercial OE mix, partially offset by higher production costs and higher R&D expenses. Note that both this quarter and the prior year quarter had a similar-sized contract benefit of roughly $60 million.

軍事業務的銷售額下降了3%。銷售額的下降是由於上一年 F135 生產合約授予的時間所致，但今年 F135 維持量的增加部分抵消了這一下降。調整後的營業利潤為 4.36 億美元，較上年增加 1.33 億美元，其中商用售後市場銷售額增加和大型商用 OE 組合有利，但生產成本和研發費用增加部分抵消了這一影響。請注意，本季和去年同期的合約收益均相似，約為 6,000 萬美元。

With that, before we get into the updated outlook for 2023, let me turn it over to Chris to give some additional color on the Pratt fleet.

在我們了解 2023 年的最新展望之前，請允許我先將時間交給 Chris，讓他為普惠機隊提供一些額外的資訊。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. Let me share with you what I can at this point about the Pratt matter. As you heard from Greg, Pratt previously determined that a rare condition in powdered metal used to manufacture certain engine parts may reduce the life of those parts. Now it's important to note upfront that the current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted, and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. I'll come back to that in a minute.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。讓我與你們分享目前我所能了解到的有關普拉特事件的資訊。正如格雷格所說，普拉特先前已確定，用於製造某些引擎零件的粉末金屬中存在一種罕見的情況，可能會縮短這些零件的使用壽命。現在需要提前註意的是，粉末金屬零件的當前生產不會受到影響，普惠將繼續為所有產品線提供新引擎和新備件。我稍後會再談這個問題。

As a result of this rare condition in powdered metal, Pratt instituted enhanced inspections to be performed at scheduled shop visits. However, based on very recent learnings from these inspections, Pratt has now determined that the timing of these shop visits needs to be accelerated. While powdered metal parts have been widely used throughout Pratt's product lines for decades, Pratt has bounded the potentially impacted material. It has concluded that this condition was present in rare instances in powdered metal produced from approximately Q4 2015 into Q3 2021.

由於粉末金屬中存在這種罕見情況，普拉特公司製定了在定期進廠檢查時進行加強檢查的規定。然而，根據最近從這些檢查中獲得的信息，普拉特現在確定需要加快這些車間檢查的時間。儘管粉末金屬零件幾十年來一直廣泛應用於普惠的產品線，但普惠已經限制了可能受到影響的材料。結論是，從 2015 年第四季到 2021 年第三季生產的金屬粉末中，這種情況極少數出現。

The PW1100 engine fleet, which powers the A320neo, will experience the most significant impact due to production volumes during this period. Based on the current assessment, Pratt anticipates by mid-September that approximately 200 PW1100 engines will be removed for enhanced inspection. Beyond the initial 200 engines, Pratt also anticipates that approximately 1,000 additional PW1100 engines will need to be removed from the operating fleet for this inspection within the next 9 to 12 months, but the exact number of engines and the timing of those removals is not yet finalized.

為 A320neo 提供動力的 PW1100 引擎組將因這段時期的生產量而受到最嚴重的影響。根據目前的評估，普惠預計到 9 月中旬將有大約 200 台 PW1100 引擎被拆除以進行加強檢查。除了最初的 200 台發動機外，普惠還預計在未來 9 到 12 個月內，還需要從操作機隊中移除大約 1,000 台 PW1100 發動機以進行此次檢查，但具體的發動機數量和移除時間尚未最終確定。

Now it's important to note that some of the engines that must be removed for inspection in 2023 and 2024 are already forecasted for a regular shop visit during this time period, and so the incremental impact to the fleet is still under evaluation. Capability to perform the accelerated inspections, which are focused on the high-pressure turbine discs, is already in place, and Pratt is developing plans to optimize shop visit capacity within its network to complete these inspections as quickly and efficiently as possible.

現在值得注意的是，一些必須在 2023 年和 2024 年拆下進行檢查的引擎已​​經預計在此期間進行定期進廠檢查，因此對機隊的增量影響仍在評估中。針對高壓渦輪盤的加速檢查能力已經到位，普惠正在製定計劃，優化其網路內的維修能力，以盡可能快速有效地完成這些檢查。

As I said earlier, current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted, and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. This is a result of the combination of extensive improvements that were made to our powder processing to remove possible contamination sources and the deployment of enhanced inspections for improved detection.

正如我之前所說，目前的粉末金屬零件生產沒有受到影響，普惠將繼續為所有產品線提供新引擎和新備件。這是我們對粉末加工進行了大量改進以消除可能的污染源，並部署了增強檢查以改善檢測的結果。

Pratt is also analyzing any potential impact to other parts of its fleet, but the current expectation is that they will be less impacted based upon existing inspections, utilization profiles and maintenance intervals. So let me take a moment to explain the timing of these developments.

普惠公司也正在分析其機隊其他部分可能受到的影響，但根據現有的檢查、利用率情況和維護間隔，目前的預期是，這些部分受到的影響較小。因此，請容許我花一點時間來解釋這些事態發展的時間。

We proactively monitor the performance of our engines throughout their life cycle. It's foundational to how we maintain and manage the safe operation of our fleet, and we do this in a number of ways: analyzing large amounts of data generated during operation, inspecting parts and MRO, destructively testing certain parts to analyze their material properties and characterizing what we observe. We use learnings from this proactive monitoring to inform our predictive models, so we can address any issues before they appear on our fleet.

我們在引擎的整個生命週期中主動監控其性能。它是我們維護和管理車隊安全運行的基礎，我們透過多種方式實現這一點：分析運行期間產生的大量數據、檢查零件和 MRO、對某些零件進行破壞性測試以分析其材料特性並描述我們觀察到的情況。我們利用從這種主動監控中獲得的知識來指導我們的預測模型，以便我們可以在任何問題出現在我們的車隊之前解決它們。

In this case, as Pratt analyzed some recent inspection findings, it determined the need for an accelerated inspection plan, even though the fallout rate from these inspections is expected to be very low. The next step is for Pratt to publish a service bulletin describing the inspections, then the FAA will likely follow up with an air-worthiness directive.

在這種情況下，普拉特分析了一些最近的檢查結果，並確定需要加速檢查計劃，即使這些檢查的後果率預計會很低。下一步是普惠發布描述檢查的服務公告，然後美國聯邦航空管理局可能會跟進適航指令。

Financial impact associated with these removals is still being analyzed and will depend on a number of factors, including the result of the inspections; the amount of work needed to be done in our network shops; and of course, the impact on our customers. This is obviously a difficult situation for our customers, especially given the strong demand for travel. We're truly sorry for the impact of this disruption, and we will do all we can to support our customers. Safety always has been and always will be our #1 priority, and we will never compromise on ensuring the safe operation of our fleet. We, of course, continue to keep you apprised as our analysis progresses on both the operational and financial impacts of these accelerated shop visits.

這些拆除行動所帶來的財務影響仍在分析中，並將取決於多種因素，包括檢查結果；我們的網路商店需要完成的工作量；當然還有對我們客戶的影響。這對我們的客戶來說顯然是一個困難的情況，尤其是在旅行需求強勁的情況下。我們對此次中斷造成的影響深感抱歉，我們將竭盡全力為客戶提供支援。安全始終是、永遠是我們的首要任務，我們永遠不會在確保車隊安全運作上妥協。當然，隨著我們對這些加速店內訪問對營運和財務的影響的分析不斷進展，我們會繼續向您通報。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil to talk about how this impacts our 2023 outlook.

接下來，讓我把話題交給尼爾，讓他談談這對我們 2023 年的展望有何影響。

Thanks, Chris. Let's start with the segment outlook. As Chris mentioned, there continue to be a number of evolving assumptions around the financials of Pratt. Let me try to put some additional color around that, starting with the top line.

謝謝，克里斯。讓我們先從細分市場展望開始。正如克里斯所提到的，圍繞著普惠的財務狀況，存在著許多不斷變化的假設。讓我嘗試為其添加一些顏色，從最上面一行開始。

Commercial aftermarket demand remains strong, and we are continuing to ramp production. Because of this, we are confident in our prior sales range of up low to mid-teens.

商業售後市場需求依然強勁，我們正在持續提高產量。正因為如此，我們對先前的銷售範圍（低至十幾美元）充滿信心。

On the profit side, given the strong first half results and continued top line growth, we still expect between $200 million and $275 million of operating profit growth for the year. Within that outlook for Pratt, here's what we are assuming as it relates to the increased engine removals and inspections.

在利潤方面，鑑於上半年業績強勁且營收持續成長，我們仍預計全年營業利潤將成長 2 億美元至 2.75 億美元。在普惠的前景中，我們對增加引擎拆卸和檢查做出如下假設。

Given Pratt's results to date and aftermarket strength, the impact for the first 200 engines is contemplated within the range we just provided. Keep in mind, given the percentage of completion accounting for the aftermarket contracts and the relatively early life of the programs, the P&L impact will be less significant today. However, for the reasons Chris described, the impact of any further engine removals from service for inspection is not currently assumed in our outlook.

鑑於普惠迄今為止的業績和售後市場的實力，預計前 200 台發動機的影響在我們剛剛提供的範圍內。請記住，考慮到售後合約的完成百分比以及專案相對較早的生命週期，今天的損益影響將不那麼顯著。然而，由於克里斯所描述的原因，我們目前還沒有考慮到進一步將引擎從服務中移除進行檢查所產生的影響。

So moving to Collins. Given the strong results in the first half and the continued strength we are seeing in commercial aftermarket, we are increasing the full year sales range from up low double digits to a new range of up low double digits to low teens. And as a result of this increased demand and continued execution, we now expect Collins' adjusted operating profit to be up between $825 million and $875 million compared to the prior range of $750 million to $825 million.

所以搬到柯林斯。鑑於上半年的強勁業績以及我們在商業售後市場看到的持續強勁勢頭，我們將全年銷售額範圍從低兩位數增長提高到新的低兩位數至低十位數增長範圍。由於需求增加和持續執行，我們現在預計柯林斯的調整後營業利潤將從先前的 7.5 億美元至 8.25 億美元上漲至 8.25 億美元。

Turning to the new Raytheon segment. Given the strength of the backlog and the accelerating top line, we expect sales for the combined segment to grow low to mid-single digits versus 2022. While we have begun to see increased material flow and improved efficiencies, we had lower productivity than we expected in the first half of the year, including costs associated with fixed price development programs. And similar to Q1, we anticipate another contract option exercise that will lead to a headwind in the third quarter. With all that said, we're expecting continued volume growth and second half productivity improvements. And altogether, we see adjusted operating profit up between $125 million and $175 million versus prior year.

轉向新的雷神公司部門。鑑於積壓訂單的強勁表現和加速成長的營收，我們預期合併後分部的銷售額將比 2022 年成長低至中等個位數。雖然我們已經開始看到物料流的增加和效率的提高，但今年上半年我們的生產力低於預期，其中包括與固定價格開發計畫相關的成本。與第一季類似，我們預計另一項合約選擇權的行使將導致第三季出現阻力。綜上所述，我們預計下半年產量將持續成長，生產力也將提高。總體而言，我們預計調整後的營業利潤將比去年同期增加 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元。

So now let me summarize all of this at the RTX level. As Greg mentioned, we're increasing our full year RTX sales outlook to $73 billion to $74 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 9% and 10%. This is up from our prior outlook of $72 billion to $73 billion.

現在讓我在 RTX 級別總結一下這一切。正如格雷格所提到的，我們將全年 RTX 銷售額預期上調至 730 億美元至 740 億美元，這意味著有機成長率在 9% 至 10% 之間。這高於我們先前預測的 720 億美元至 730 億美元。

With respect to earnings, we are tightening our adjusted earnings per share range by $0.05 on the bottom end and now expect adjusted EPS of between $4.95 and $5.05, given the first half results and some improvement in below-the-line items, and we've provided an update on those below-the-line items in the appendices.

對於收益，我們將調整後每股收益範圍的底線收窄 0.05 美元，目前預計調整後每股收益在 4.95 美元至 5.05 美元之間，考慮到上半年業績和線下項目的一些改善，我們在附錄中提供了這些線下項目的最新情況。

Turning to free cash flow. The impact of the Pratt matter will be more meaningful on cash flow as we begin to ramp up inspections and MRO activity this year. As a result, we now see free cash flow of approximately $4.3 billion for the year, about $500 million below our prior outlook. And finally, we'll transition to the new segment reporting here in the third quarter, and we've provided the recasted 2022 and 2023 quarterly financials in the appendices.

轉向自由現金流。隨著我們今年開始加強檢查和 MRO 活動，普拉特事件對現金流的影響將更為顯著。因此，我們現在預計今年的自由現金流約為 43 億美元，比我們先前的預期低約 5 億美元。最後，我們將在第三季過渡到新的分部報告，並在附錄中提供了重編的 2022 年和 2023 年季度財務報表。

So with that, let me turn it over to Greg for some closing remarks.

因此，請允許我把時間交給 Greg 來做最後的總結發言。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. So just some closing thoughts before we get to the Q&A. We obviously had a very strong second quarter with $25 billion in new orders, which brings our backlog to a record $185 billion. Sales were also very strong with 13% organic revenue growth. This strength in sales and orders reflects the strength in both our commercial aero and defense markets.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。在我們進入問答環節之前，我只想說幾句結束語。我們第二季的表現顯然非常強勁，新訂單金額達 250 億美元，這使我們的積壓訂單額達到創紀錄的 1,850 億美元。銷售也非常強勁，有機收入成長了 13%。銷售和訂單的強勁表現反映了我們商用航空和國防市場的強勁表現。

RPMs are on track to return to pre-COVID levels as we exit 2023, and military spending globally continues to increase in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the emerging threats in the INDOPACOM theater. Based on the continued strength in our markets, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for 2023 and beyond.

隨著 2023 年的結束，RPM 有望恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平，而為應對俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略以及印太司令部戰區新出現的威脅，全球軍事開支將繼續增加。基於我們市場持續的強勁表現，我們已做好準備，兌現 2023 年及以後的承諾。

With that, let's open up the call for questions.

現在，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Let's start with the GTF, shall we? By my count, this is the third issue you're dealing with at the moment. You had that quality escape noted at Paris, the ongoing time on wing issues in these challenging environments and now the metal problem. Is there a root problem or cause that's linking these issues? And are you concerned about the potential impact on Pratt's reputation for reliability?

我們從 GTF 開始吧，好嗎？據我統計，這是您目前正在處理的第三個問題。你們注意到了巴黎航展上出現的品質問題、在這些充滿挑戰的環境中持續存在的機翼問題以及現在的金屬問題。這些問題之間是否存在根本問題或原因？您是否擔心這可能會對普惠的可靠性聲譽產生影響？

Yes. Thanks, Rob. This is Chris. I'll start. Obviously, this is a disappointing development and will impact our customers. Let me just sort of take a step back and kind of walk you through sort of the processes that are in place across Pratt.

是的。謝謝，羅布。這是克里斯。我先開始。顯然，這是一個令人失望的發展，並將影響我們的客戶。讓我先退一步，向你們介紹一下普拉特現有的流程。

It's got a strong process of fleet surveillance, evaluation and taking corrective action that is used to support the safety of the fleet. In this particular case, the process worked. But I will tell you that, again, we continue to monitor the situation with the fleet. We continue to find learnings in the fleet and then we take those actions and update our models and correct them.

它擁有強大的船隊監視、評估和採取糾正措施流程，用於支援船隊的安全。在這個特殊情況下，該流程是有效的。但我要告訴你們，我們將繼續監視艦隊的狀況。我們不斷在艦隊中尋找經驗教訓，然後採取行動，更新我們的模型並進行修正。

But if you step back, this is not a GTF design issue. This is a manufacturing process issue in our powdered metal. We very quickly went and enhanced those processes to make sure this doesn't happen again and put in place the enhanced inspection techniques to make sure that we can continue to find this and address them promptly. So we're taking prompt action.

但如果你退一步來看，這並不是 GTF 設計問題。這是我們的粉末金屬製造工藝問題。我們很快就加強了這些流程，以確保這種情況不會再次發生，並實施了增強的檢查技術，以確保我們能夠繼續發現並及時解決這些問題。因此我們正在迅速採取行動。

Right now, we've got to now work through how we define work scope and the turnaround time that's required. And of course, do all the impact of the fleet that's going to be required. Again, we talked about it in the comments upfront, GTF is going to have a lot of shop visits here in the back half of '23 and into '24. We need to figure out how many of those are incremental and what the true impact of the fleet is, but that's ongoing. But again, we're going to continue to invest in the GTF and the durability improvements that Shane talked about at Investor Day in June and, of course, the GTF advantage. We will work through this difficult time. But again, we continue to believe in the GTF, its architecture and its future.

現在，我們必須研究如何定義工作範圍和所需的周轉時間。當然，也要考慮艦隊需要承受的所有衝擊。再次，我們在前期評論中討論過這個問題，GTF 將在 23 年下半年和 24 年在這裡進行大量的商店訪問。我們需要弄清楚其中有多少是增量，以及艦隊的真正影響是什麼，但這項工作仍在進行中。但是，我們將繼續投資 GTF 和 Shane 在 6 月投資者日上談到的耐用性改進，當然還有 GTF 的優勢。我們將努力度過這個困難時期。但我們仍然相信 GTF、它的架構和它的未來。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Neil, I'm trying to understand the scaling of the $500 million lower free cash flow to the total population of engines that you're going to be removing and inspecting. I think you said that the 200 -- the first 200 are encompassed in the guidance, but it wasn't clear if that was just the segment profit guidance you were talking about. And also, obviously, this is lingering into '24 to get that whole 1,200 population. So should we think about a similar sized cash impact in '24?

尼爾，我想了解一下 5 億美元的較低自由現金流與你要拆卸和檢查的引擎總數的比例。我認為您說的是 200——前 200 個都包含在指導中，但不清楚這是否只是您所談論的分部利潤指導。而且，顯然，這一數字要持續到 24 年才能達到全部 1,200 名人口。那麼我們是否應該考慮 24 年類似規模的現金影響？

Got it. Let me start with what I can tell you now. First, let me remind you, it's very early in this process. We have begun to investigate what the cost and the work scope and the timing might be, but there'll be some learnings over the next 30 to 60 days, and we'll certainly come back and talk to you a little bit about that.

知道了。讓我先從我現在能告訴你的事情開始。首先，我要提醒你，這個過程還處於非常早期的階段。我們已經開始調查成本、工作範圍和時間安排，但在接下來的 30 到 60 天內我們會有一些了解，我們一定會回來和你談談這個問題。

As I think about the guidance, the comment I made with respect to the Pratt guidance, again, we had a first half that was very strong at Pratt. I think we're well on track for the year, all else equal. But a couple of dynamics that will likely keep the P&L impact associated with the 200 accelerated inspections manageable for the year.

當我思考指導意見時，我對普拉特指導意見所做的評論是，普拉特上半年的表現非常強勁。我認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們今年的進展一切順利。但一些動態因素可能會使今年 200 次加速檢查對損益的影響處於可控範圍內。

First is we've talked about 85% of this fleet is under a long-term contract. And we're less than 5% complete on those programs on average. And so as Chris just mentioned, we don't know exactly how many, but some of those 200 are already scheduled for a visit this year. So when we think about those 2 things, that sort of helps us bound what the impact would be for this year with respect to that population. Given the 1,000 and the fact that a number of those are also already scheduled for a shop visit, we still need some more time to go think through that.

首先，我們說過，該船隊的 85% 都簽訂了長期合約。平均而言，這些項目的完成度不到 5%。正如克里斯剛才提到的，我們不知道具體有多少人，但其中有些人已經安排今年來訪。因此，當我們考慮這兩件事時，這有助於我們確定今年對該人群的影響。考慮到有 1,000 輛，而且其中許多也已經安排了到店參觀，我們仍然需要更多時間來考慮這個問題。

As it relates to the cash flow, similar train of thought there. We really do need a little bit more time to go through this. But we put a risk into our outlook because we know that we'll have some calls on cash over the rest of the year. I would say there's 2 things that are impacting the cash flow. The first is what I'd call the direct impact and the second is what I'd call the indirect.

因為它與現金流有關，所以思路類似。我們確實需要更多一點時間來解決這個問題。但我們把風險納入我們的展望中，因為我們知道在今年剩餘時間內我們會有一些現金需求。我想說有兩件事影響了現金流。第一個是我所說的直接影響，第二個是我所說的間接影響。

On the direct side, it's really going to be things like accelerated capital; some inventory to get ready for these inspections; expenses associated with the work that we'll start to perform during the last quarter of the year; and then obviously, customer disruption. So more to go there. Indirectly, there's other work that this may disrupt in our business, and so we're contemplating some of that as we look at this year.

從直接方面來說，它實際上就是加速資本之類的東西；一些庫存，為這些檢查做好準備；與我們將於今年最後一個季度開始執行的工作相關的費用；顯然，這會導致客戶中斷。因此還有更多人要去那裡。間接地，這可能會擾亂我們的業務中的其他工作，因此，我們在展望今年時正在考慮其中的一些問題。

I think it's a bit too early to kind of extrapolate that out to '24 and '25. Certainly, we'll come back over the next couple of months to provide a better update.

我認為現在推斷 24 年和 25 年的情況還為時過早。當然，我們會在接下來的幾個月內回來提供更好的更新。

And can you clarify if the powder metal supplier is internal to you?

您能否澄清一下粉末金屬供應商是否是您的內部供應商？

It is -- Myles, this is Greg. Yes. So we actually manufacture the powder at our facility in New York. That powder is then processed down at our Columbus, Georgia Forge into a number of different parts. Parts we're talking about here are turbine discs, but they are all internally manufactured with a proprietary powder.

是的——邁爾斯，這是格雷格。是的。因此，我們實際上是在紐約的工廠生產這種粉末。然後，這些粉末在我們位於喬治亞州哥倫布的鍛造廠加工成許多不同的零件。我們在這裡討論的部件是渦輪盤，但它們都是用專有粉末內部製造的。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

Question for you, Greg, right? And then kind of getting back to Rob's question. When you look at the litany of issues that have happened here with this engine, everything from hot section issues, manufacturing issues, do you have a cultural issue in your engineering workforce? Are people not talking to each other? And I mean, it also begs the question, how could you guys possibly not know about this at Paris when you did this major Investor event? So can you just give us all some insight into how people are communicating and what's going on in your engineering workforce?

格雷格，我問你一個問題，對吧？然後回到 Rob 的問題。當您查看此引擎發生的一系列問題時，從熱部分問題到製造問題，您的工程人員是否存在文化問題？人們彼此之間不交談嗎？我的意思是，這也引出了一個問題，當你們在巴黎舉辦這個大型投資者活動時，你們怎麼可能不知道這件事呢？那麼，您能否向我們介紹人們的溝通方式以及工程團隊的現況？

Yes. Ron, we should differentiate between the durability issues that Shane talked about and I call this the manufacturing quality issue. Let's just take a step back, right? This is an issue that we first uncovered back in 2020 when we had an incident with the V2500 turbine disc. As a result of that investigation, we determined at that point that we had some contamination in this powdered metal that we make. It occurred very, very rarely, but it did happen, and it actually resulted in the turbine disc failure on an airline.

是的。羅恩，我們應該區分肖恩談到的耐用性問題和我所說的製造品質問題。我們退一步來看吧？這個問題我們在 2020 年首次發現，當時 V2500 渦輪盤發生事故。調查結果顯示，我們當時確定我們生產的金屬粉末中存在一些污染。這種情況非常罕見，但確實發生過，並且確實導致了航空公司渦輪盤故障。

As a result of that, we went through and did 2 things. First of all, we went out and inspected the V2500 fleet. But we also went back and we took a look at the powdered metal process to determine how this contamination happened. Through a lot of work, through a lot of discovery, we figured out what the contaminants were. And by the end of 2021, about a year after that, we were able to manufacture powder that was, I would say, contaminant-free to the best of our ability.

因此，我們經歷了並做了兩件事。首先，我們出去檢查了V2500車隊。但我們也回過頭來研究了金屬粉末的加工過程，以確定這種污染是如何發生的。透過大量的工作和探索，我們弄清楚了污染物是什麼。到 2021 年底，也就是大約一年後，我們能夠盡力生產出無污染的粉末。

At the same time, we knew that this contamination had occurred between late 2015 and late 2020, early 2021. So we knew we had a suspect population in the fleet. And we went out and like -- and so we started inspecting. We inspected the turbine discs as they were manufactured. We inspected turbine discs as they came back in, not just for the V but for the whole GTF fleet. In fact, the entire fleet of Pratt products that were manufactured during this time frame.

同時，我們知道這次污染發生在 2015 年底至 2020 年底、2021 年初之間。因此，我們知道船隊中存在可疑人群。然後我們就出去了——然後我們開始檢查。我們在渦輪盤製造過程中對其進行了檢查。我們對返回的渦輪盤進行了檢查，不僅針對 V 型發動機，還針對整個 GTF 機隊。事實上，普惠所有產品都是在這段時間內生產的。

That -- those inspections, and there were over 3,000 of those inspections, yielded a very, very small fallout rate, less than 1%. So as Chris said, all of this data goes into our lifing model for the turbine disc. And based upon everything that we knew until very recently, we believe that the life of the turbine disc was such that we would see these discs in the shop and be able to inspect them before we ever had an issue.

這些檢查，總共進行了 3,000 多次，產生的不良後果率非常小，不到 1%。正如克里斯所說，所有這些數據都進入了我們的渦輪盤壽命模型。根據我們最近了解的所有信息，我們相信渦輪盤的使用壽命是這樣的，我們可以在車間看到這些盤，並能夠在出現問題之前對其進行檢查。

Now as we again looked at the data again over the last couple of months, our safety risk assessment and our Safety Board went through their process of updating the data based on all the recent findings. And they said, you know what, we're not absolutely positive that the lifing model is accurate. And so we're going to take -- we want to take a look at these discs at a much accelerated basis.

現在，當我們再次查看過去幾個月的數據時，我們的安全風險評估和安全委員會根據所有最新發現完成了數據更新的過程。他們說，你知道嗎，我們並不完全肯定這個生命模型是否準確。因此，我們要 — — 我們要以更快的速度檢查這些光碟。

I would tell you, that is exactly the way the process is supposed to work. And so we're going to pull back 200 discs or 200 engines and look at the discs here in the next 90 days or so. In the next year, based upon those findings from the first 200, we think there's probably another 1,000 out there. So 1,200 out of a little over 3,000 engines out there have to be inspected. But this is not a -- I'm sorry, it's not a design issue. In fact, the engineers have been working on this issue hand in glove with the Safety Board and everybody else in manufacturing for the last 3 years.

我想告訴你，這正是這個過程該運作的方式。因此，我們將取回 200 個光碟或 200 個引擎，並在接下來的 90 天左右檢查這些光碟。明年，根據前 200 名的調查結果，我們認為可能還會有另外 1,000 個。因此，在 3,000 多台引擎中，有 1,200 台需要接受檢查。但這不是——抱歉，這不是設計問題。事實上，過去 3 年來，工程師一直與安全委員會和製造業的其他人員密切合作解決這個問題。

So I don't believe that we have an engineering issue. Obviously, this was a quality escape back from -- sometime between 2015 and 2020. And we are doing, I think, exactly the right thing, which is to bring these engines back, inspect them and ensure the safety of the fleet going forward. And I think, again, it's -- obviously, look, this engine, Ron, as you know, has been a challenge since we launched it back in 2015, and you guys can remember talking about boat rotors and all of the other issues that we had. But if you think about this engine operating at the temperatures that we do, it has been a continuous discovery. This is not one of them. This is simply a quality issue from a manufacturing problem.

所以我不認為我們有工程問題。顯然，這是一次高品質的回歸——在 2015 年至 2020 年之間。我認為，我們正在做的事情完全正確，那就是將這些引擎帶回來，進行檢查，並確保未來機隊的安全。而且我認為，顯然，你看，羅恩，正如你所知，自從我們在 2015 年推出這款發動機以來，它一直是一個挑戰，你們還記得我們討論過船用轉子以及我們遇到的所有其他問題。但如果你想想這個引擎在我們工作的溫度下運行，這是一個持續不斷的發現。這不是其中之一。這只是製造問題導致的品質問題。

So I would say, look, we're on top of it. We've got this. It's going to be expensive. We're going to make the airlines whole as a result of the disruption we're going to cause them. And I think we're going to work ourselves through it. It's not an existential threat to RTX. It's not even an existential threat to Pratt. It is a problem, and we have them every day, and we'll solve it.

所以我想說，看，我們已經掌握了它。我們已經得到它了。這會很貴。我們將對航空公司造成損失，以彌補我們對它們造成的損失。我認為我們會努力解決這個問題。這對 RTX 來說並不構成生存威脅。這對普拉特來說甚至不構成生存威脅。這是一個問題，我們每天都會遇到，我們會解決它。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Greg, thanks for that color there. I appreciate that. On the powdered metal, just specifically, did you -- when did you make the change? Was it kind of when you -- back in 2020 or '21? Just so we can have better clarity on the engines that are being delivered today.

格雷格，謝謝你的顏色。我很感激。關於粉末金屬，具體來說，您什麼時候做出的改變？是不是有點像 2020 年或 2021 年的時候？這樣我們就可以更清楚地了解今天交付的引擎。

Yes, so it was mid- to late 2021 where we changed all the processes in terms of the screening of the powdered metal to identify the contaminant and to eliminate the contaminant. Let's be clear. I mean this is a -- these contaminants are microscopic. And unfortunately, the original process, as we scaled up production for GTF, it got away from us a little bit, and we fixed it. But I would tell you, everything that we have shipped -- or almost everything we had shipped, I should say, in the last 3 years, we believe, is going to be just fine. That's why we're confident we can continue to support Airbus, continue to support customers with new deliveries as well as with spares this year and next.

是的，所以在 2021 年中後期，我們改變了粉末金屬篩選方面的所有流程，以識別污染物並消除污染物。讓我們明確一點。我的意思是──這些污染物是微觀的。不幸的是，隨著我們擴大 GTF 的生產規模，原來的流程有點偏離了我們的預期，我們修復了這個問題。但我要告訴你們，我們相信，我們在過去 3 年裡運送的所有產品——或者說幾乎所有我們運送的產品——都會沒問題。這就是為什麼我們有信心在今年和明年繼續支援空中巴士，繼續為客戶提供新飛機交付和備件支援。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Just on free cash flow, can we walk through the bridge, $1.2 billion of free cash flow usage in the first half, $4.3 billion expectation for the year? How do you think about the biggest drivers on a segment level basis in working capital? What are your expectations for factoring for the year, whether it's a benefit or a headwind? And should we think about $500 million of Pratt impact for 200 engines? Is that the rate we should assume going forward in future years? Or is that something you guys are working through?

僅從自由現金流來看，我們能否實現這一目標：上半年自由現金流使用量為 12 億美元，全年預計為 43 億美元？您如何看待分部層級營運資本的最大驅動因素？您對今年的保理業務有何預期，是有利還是不利？我們是否應該考慮 200 台引擎對普惠公司 5 億美元的影響？這是我們在未來幾年應該假設的利率嗎？還是這是你們正在努力解決的事情？

Thanks, Sheila. This is Neil. I will take that one. First of all, on the $0.5 billion, I wouldn't extrapolate that. We need some more time, as I said earlier in the call. So let's just kind of focus on '23.

謝謝，希拉。這是尼爾。我要那個。首先，對於 5 億美元，我不會做出這樣的推論。正如我之前在通話中所說的那樣，我們需要更多時間。因此，讓我們只關注 23 年。

As I look at the walk from the first half to the second half, I'll also say that we ended the quarter with positive cash flow pretty much as expected. So the back half of the year is as we expected it to be. Obviously, there's some work to do there to generate the cash, but consistent with the profile we had last year.

當我回顧從上半年到下半年的歷程時，我還要說，我們在本季結束時的現金流基本上符合預期，為正。因此，今年下半年的情況與我們預期的一樣。顯然，我們需要做一些工作來產生現金，但與我們去年的情況一致。

The major pieces really are, I'd put it in 4 major buckets. Obviously, we have the rest of the year segment operating profit. It's a little less than $4 billion or so. We feel pretty good about that, consistent with the guide that we just provided and updated.

主要部分確實是，我會把它放在 4 個主要部分。顯然，我們今年剩餘時間都有分部營業利潤。大約是 40 億美元左右。我們對此感覺很好，與我們剛剛提供和更新的指南一致。

We've got capital, second half capital, which is going to be a headwind of about $1.4 billion. And then we've got a working capital item that we have to kind of burn down. It's about $3.5 billion, about $2 billion of that is inventory. I'd say, split pretty evenly between Pratt and Collins. And then $1 billion of the net contract asset liabilities, which is principally in the Raytheon segment. And that lines up to milestone payments we expect to receive in the back half of the year as well as some international advances similar to what we had last year that would occur late in the fourth quarter.

我們有資本，下半年的資本，將面臨約 14 億美元的逆風。然後，我們就有了一個必須消耗掉的營運資金項目。大約是 35 億美元，其中約 20 億美元是庫存。我想說，普拉特和柯林斯的差距相當大。然後是 10 億美元的淨合約資產負債，主要用於雷神部門。這與我們預計在今年下半年收到的里程碑付款以及與去年類似的、第四季度末收到的一些國際預付款一致。

The rest of the puts and takes are really the things we've talked about: pension, taxes, interest and other. The net of that is about $0.5 billion of an outflow in the second half. So again, same profile we were staring at 35, 45 days ago. We've layered in the Pratt impact. I think that mostly will impact working capital. It may have some CapEx as well.

其餘的利弊其實就是我們討論過的事情：退休金、稅收、利息和其他。下半年淨流出金額約 5 億美元。所以，我們再次回顧 35 到 45 天前所關注的相同情況。我們已經將普拉特的影響層層疊加。我認為這主要會影響營運資金。它可能也有一些資本支出。

Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag)。

For the Pratt issue, it seems like the free cash flow impact in 2024, 2025 is still a little bit unclear. How should we think about how this affects your 2025 free cash flow outlook of $9 billion? And is that still the number you're reiterating? Or should we think about potential downside risks?

對於普拉特問題，似乎 2024 年、2025 年的自由現金流影響仍有點不清楚。我們應該如何看待這會對您 2025 年 90 億美元的自由現金流前景產生什麼影響？您仍會重申這個數字嗎？或者我們應該考慮潛在的下行風險？

Kristine, I'll take that to start. I mean, clearly, all things equal, the issue we just talked about is going to put some pressure on Pratt margins. It would put pressure on cash. I think it's too early to put a number on that. We're going to need some time to go through and understand what's the work scope, how does that intersect with already planned work scope and the profile of those shop visits. And of course, we're always focused on trying to drive more out of our businesses, and we would do the same here. So I think I'll leave it at that. We will come back to you over the next couple of months with more detail. Greg?

克里斯汀，我先從這個開始。我的意思是，顯然，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們剛才討論的問題將對普惠的利潤率帶來一些壓力。這將給現金帶來壓力。我認為現在就給出一個數字還為時過早。我們需要一些時間來仔細研究並了解工作範圍是什麼，它與已經計劃好的工作範圍以及這些車間訪問的概況有何關聯。當然，我們始終致力於從我們的業務中獲得更多收益，在這裡我們也會這樣做。所以我想我就到此為止吧。我們將在接下來的幾個月內向您提供更多詳細資訊。格雷格？

Yes. Just maybe the way to think about this is, so we're going to pull 200 engines back this year. A bunch of those are going to come back anyways. And then next year is another 1,000, and a bunch of those are already planned. Having said that, though, we know -- right now, we've got 13 MRO facilities. We're going to have to go -- our plan was to go to 19. We're going to have to accelerate some of the tooling, and that's contemplated in this cash. We're going to have to dedicate some spares to a rotable pool of engines to support some customers.

是的。也許可以這樣想，我們今年將收回 200 台引擎。無論如何，其中很多都會回來。明年還會有另外 1,000 個，其中很多都已經計劃好了。儘管如此，我們知道——目前，我們有 13 個 MRO 設施。我們必須繼續前進——我們的計劃是增加到 19 個。我們必須加速一些工具的開發，這在現金中已經考慮到了。我們將不得不將一些備件投入可輪換的引擎池中，以支援一些客戶。

Those things, again, will be behind us, I would say, probably by the middle of next year in terms of the cash outflows associated with that. The big question in everybody's mind will be, what are we going to have to do in terms of compensation to the airlines. We have contracts, special support agreements that are out there. So we'll work through that, but it's going to take time.

我想說，就相關的現金流出而言，這些事情可能要等到明年年中才能解決。每個人心中最大的疑問是，我們要如何向航空公司補償。我們有合同，有特殊的支援協議。所以我們會努力解決這個問題，但這需要時間。

I guess the main point, though, is by the end of next year, this inspection program will be almost all complete. And the 2025 outlook really shouldn't be impacted other than, as Neil said, potential margin impact as some of these costs roll through the GTF support contracts. But again, it's -- we've got 2 years to work through that, and we will figure that out. But in terms of the cash, really probably not a big difference as you get out to 2025.

不過，我想重點是，到明年年底，這項檢查計畫將幾乎全部完成。正如尼爾所說，除了由於部分成本透過 GTF 支援合約轉入而對利潤產生潛在影響之外，2025 年的前景實際上不應該受到影響。但同樣，我們有兩年的時間來解決這個問題，我們會找到答案的。但就現金而言，到 2025 年可能真的不會有太大差別。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wanted to ask a question about the Raytheon business. It looks like -- and I want to make sure I've got the right recast numbers here, but it looks like first half to second half, kind of -- only kind of a modest sales increase expected but fairly healthy profit increase to get to the $150 million of profit growth at midpoint. And so I guess, if you could talk a little bit about what gives you confidence in that, especially in light of the option exercise you mentioned? And then also, I thought there was pretty good top line momentum in RMD in the quarter, and the degree to which you do or don't expect that to continue in the second half.

我想問一個有關雷神公司業務的問題。看起來——我想確保我在這裡得到了正確的重算數字，但看起來上半年到下半年——預計銷售額只會有適度增長，但利潤增長相當健康，中期利潤增長達到 1.5 億美元。所以我想，您能否談談是什麼讓您對此充滿信心，特別是考慮到您提到的選擇權行使？而且，我認為本季 RMD 的營收成長勢頭相當不錯，而且你預計這種勢頭在下半年會持續或不持續。

Seth, this is Chris. When you look at RMD, we'll break it down into the pieces of the new Raytheon segment. When you look at RMD, we start to see some positive momentum in particular around material growth, right? About 14% year-over-year material growth. The kit fill rates that we've talked about for some time that were hovering in those mid- to low 50s were up into the mid-70s. So we're starting to see material flow, which is a big part of the continued productivity story at RMD.

賽斯，這是克里斯。當您查看 RMD 時，我們會將其分解為新雷神部門的各個部分。當您查看 RMD 時，我們開始看到一些積極的勢頭，特別是在材料增長方面，對嗎？年增約14%。我們之前討論過的套件填充率一直徘徊在 50% 左右，但到了 70% 左右時就上升到了 50%。因此，我們開始看到物料流，這是 RMD 持續提高生產力的重要組成部分。

At RIS, I would say, again, less material intensive, but very good material flow in kit fill rates. The issue that we're continuing to grapple with there are the fixed-price development contracts that we've got. We've mentioned before, we've got a handful of fixed-price development contracts that are technologically very complex, and we continue to work our way through. We believe we'll make significant progress on those here in 2023 and into early 2024. But overall, again, seeing positive momentum on the productivity front at Raytheon.

在 RIS，我想說的是，材料密集度較低，但套件填充率的材料流動性非常好。我們正在繼續努力解決的問題是我們所簽訂的固定價格開發合約。我們之前提到過，我們有一些固定價格的開發合同，這些合約在技術上非常複雜，我們正在繼續努力。我們相信，我們將在 2023 年和 2024 年初取得重大進展。但總體而言，雷神公司的生產力方面再次呈現積極勢頭。

Thanks, Chris. Let me add a couple of comments here, too, regarding productivity. I think the first half of the year was encouraging in some regards. We turned the corner a bit I think on a year-over-year basis. For the first half of the new combined business, we're essentially flat year-over-year. We are expecting about $100 million of productivity step up in the second half of the year. Think about that as -- I'm sorry, on a full year basis, so about $75 million or so in the second half of the year. And the material receipts is what makes us have the confidence around that path to the second half of the year.

謝謝，克里斯。我也在這裡補充幾點關於生產力的評論。我認為今年上半年在某些方面是令人鼓舞的。我認為，與去年同期相比，我們已經取得了一些進展。對於新合併業務的上半年，我們的業績與去年同期基本持平。我們預計今年下半年生產力將提高約 1 億美元。想想看——抱歉，以全年計算，下半年大約是 7,500 萬美元左右。物質收入讓我們對下半年的道路充滿信心。

The other encouraging point I would say is, particularly at the missile business, we saw the sales tick up on that material receipt, and the mix of that material had a good drop-through on it. So we're starting to see the transition of the mix of production from development. We talked about 2023 being the low point.

我想說的另一個令人鼓舞的一點是，特別是在導彈業務方面，我們看到該材料收據的銷售額有所上升，並且該材料的組合也有了很好的下降。因此，我們開始看到生產結構從開發到生產結構的轉變。我們談到 2023 年將是最低點。

So that's how we've calibrated this into this revised outlook. We've also taken into account the first half performance as we've readjusted this realignment in the second half of the year.

這就是我們如何將其調整到修訂後的展望中。我們在下半年重新調整這項調整時也考慮了上半年的表現。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Yes, maybe Chris or Neil, if you can dig a little bit further into what you bucketed as the other disruptions, as we think about maybe an incremental diversion of engines into the spare pool and how we think about stresses on the capacity of the network as you deal with not only the 200 this year, but the 1,000 next year. And within that other bucket, where do you see sort of the primary risks or maybe the greatest unknowns as you think about the potential eventual impact on cash?

是的，也許克里斯或尼爾可以，如果您可以進一步挖掘您所說的其他中斷，因為我們考慮將發動機逐步轉移到備用池中，以及我們如何考慮網絡容量的壓力，因為您不僅要處理今年的 200 台發動機，還要處理明年的 1,000 台發動機。而在另一個類別中，當您考慮對現金的潛在最終影響時，您認為主要風險或最大的未知因素是什麼？

Yes. Yes, Ken. Thanks. This is Chris. I'll start it. As we kind of noted up front, there are a number of variables that are going into the fleet impact, both this year and next. Work scope, making sure we define that, the work scope for these inspections. The turnaround time, trying to get the turnaround time and do this work as quickly and efficiently as possible, making it into a project visit to the extent that we can. And then optimizing the network capacity. You just heard Greg say we've got 13 shops across our network today. We're adding more shops.

是的。是的，肯。謝謝。這是克里斯。我這就開始。正如我們之前提到的，今年和明年都會有許多變數影響船隊。工作範圍，確保我們定義這些檢查的工作範圍。週轉時間，嘗試獲得周轉時間並儘可能快速有效地完成這項工作，盡可能使其成為專案訪問。然後優化網路容量。您剛剛聽到格雷格說，今天我們的網路有 13 家商店。我們正在增加更多商店。

But how do we go and optimize that network because, obviously, we've got whipped today, as you know, as we're trying to increase output on the GTF MRO. We've got to make sure that we're inducting the right engines at the right time and making sure that we can do this, I'll call it, new work -- new inspection work separate and apart to the extent that we can from the ongoing MRO work. So all of that, I'll call it optimization formula, is still being developed, and we're going to need a little bit more time on that.

但是我們如何優化該網絡，因為顯然，正如您所知，我們今天已經遇到了麻煩，因為我們正在嘗試增加 GTF MRO 的產量。我們必須確保在正確的時間引入正確的發動機，並確保我們能夠做到這一點，我稱之為新工作 - 新的檢查工作，盡可能與正在進行的 MRO 工作分開。所以，我稱之為優化公式的所有這些仍在開發中，我們還需要更多時間。

In terms of the other disruptions, Greg mentioned some of them. But again, we're going to be looking at our network where all of our work is done to try to minimize any disruption on other program -- more mature programs perhaps that are going through the MRO cycle. Again, how do we make sure that those continue to flow uninterrupted while we do this work. Those are the types of things we're continuing to work through.

至於其他幹擾，格雷格提到了其中的一些。但是，我們再次審視我們的網絡，我們所有的工作都是在這個網絡上完成的，以盡量減少對其他程序的干擾——也許是正在經歷 MRO 週期的更成熟的程序。再次，我們如何確保在進行這項工作的同時，這些資源能夠繼續不間斷地流動。這些都是我們正在繼續努力解決的事情。

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

You talked a little bit about the capacity in MRO. Can you talk a little bit about the capacity for the part itself, the internal manufacturing capability that you have there? And whether this is another potential constraint for you on the GTF?

您稍微談了一下 MRO 的容量。您能否稍微談談該零件本身的產能以及您們的內部製造能力？這是否是您對 GTF 的另一個潛在限制？

Yes. Yes, thanks, Jason. This is Chris. Greg mentioned upfront that we've had this enhanced inspection technique in place for some time and been doing these inspections. On the V2500 in particular, we've had -- I think, Greg, you said almost 3,000 of those inspections. I will tell you that the fallout rate from that on this part has been very, very low. And so at this particular time, Jason, we don't believe that the HPT will be the limiting factor, if you will, in terms of the turnaround time and our ability to work through this as quickly and efficiently as possible.

是的。是的，謝謝，傑森。這是克里斯。格雷格預先提到，我們已經採用這種增強檢查技術一段時間了，並且一直在進行這些檢查。特別是在 V2500 上，我們已經進行了——格雷格，我想，您說過我們進行了近 3,000 次檢查。我可以告訴你，這部分的影響率非常非常低。因此，傑森，在這個特定時間，我們不認為 HPT 會成為限制因素，就週轉時間和我們盡快、盡可能有效地解決這一問題的能力而言。

And I mean, if you were to go and to do one of these inspections today, do you have a sense of -- are we talking about weeks or days or months to do this inspection?

我的意思是，如果您今天要去做其中一項檢查，您是否知道——我們談論的是需要幾週、幾天還是幾個月的時間來完成這項檢查？

Yes. So we're talking HPT discs, Jason, and so that particular module, you can't necessarily do that on wing. You've got to take the engine off wing. You've got to disassemble the engine to get to that particular area. Unfortunately, based on the geometry and location of the part, you do have to remove the part to do this, enhance inspection capability, reassemble, and then get it back out to the fleet. So I think I mentioned before, we're trying to turn this into, as best we can, what we would call a project visit, not a full interval shop visit, but that work is still underway. Obviously, making sure the wing-to-wing turnaround time is as short as possible and doing what we need to do is an important element of understanding the fleet impact and what we need to do from a network perspective.

是的。所以我們正在談論 HPT 光碟，傑森，所以那個特定的模組，你不一定能在機翼上做到這一點。你必須把引擎從機翼上拆下來。您必須拆開引擎才能到達該特定區域。不幸的是，根據零件的幾何形狀和位置，您必須移除零件才能執行此操作，增強檢查能力，重新組裝，然後將其送回車隊。所以我想我之前提到過，我們正在盡力將其轉變為我們所謂的項目訪問，而不是全間隔車間訪問，但這項工作仍在進行中。顯然，確保機翼到機翼的周轉時間盡可能短並做我們需要做的事情是了解機隊影響以及從網路角度我們需要做的事情的重要因素。

And is there any silver lining to this at all in the sense that you mentioned optimization on how you're going to deal with these visits and these inspections. Is there an opportunity here to get through some of this durability swap outs that you need to do anyway, so that you can kind of kill 2 birds with 1 stone, so to speak, as you do these inspections?

您提到了優化如何處理這些訪問和檢查，這其中是否有任何好處？這裡是否有機會完成一些無論如何都需要做的耐用性更換，以便您在進行這些檢查時可以一舉兩得？

Yes. So when you think about that 2024 shop visit population, we're going to, again, take a look at the utilization on those, the cycle time on those engines and in working with our customers, making a decision, a mutual decision, on is this the right candidate for a project visit? Or should that work scope increase to take on additional work, which will benefit the time on wing and the interval of that engine moving forward several years. That is a decision, that is a conversation that we will have once we better understand again how many of these visits are truly incremental in 2024 and then the related fleet impacts. But that -- as you know, Jason, that is a part of the equation.

是的。因此，當您考慮 2024 年的進店訪問人數時，我們將再次查看這些發動機的利用率、循環時間，並與我們的客戶合作，做出決定，共同決定，這是否是項目訪問的合適人選？或者是否應該擴大工作範圍以承擔額外的工作，這將有利於延長飛行時間並將引擎的運行間隔提前幾年。這是一個決定，這是一個對話，我們將在更好地了解 2024 年這些訪問中有多少是真正增量的，以及相關的機隊影響後進行討論。但是 — — 如你所知，傑森，這是等式的一部分。

And then lastly, do you think you're going to learn enough by the time we have the October earnings call to provide us a little bit more clarity on things? Or do you think this is going to be a discovery process that takes us out a number of months until the end of the year?

最後，您是否認為在我們召開十月份收益電話會議時，您會了解足夠多的信息，以便讓我們對事情有更清晰的認識？或者您認為這將是一個需要花費數月時間直至年底的發現過程？

Jason, we're discovering something new every day here. So I think all I would tell you is that over the next, I would say, 6 weeks as we finalize the inspection protocols, as we finalize the turn times and work with our customers, keep in mind, we're trying to get the first 200 engines back by the middle of September. So I think by the middle of September, we'll have a much better feel for what is involved here, and we'll get -- have an opportunity to update everybody around that time.

傑森，我們每天都會發現一些新的東西。所以我想我要告訴你的是，在接下來的六週內，當我們最終確定檢查協議時，當我們最終確定週轉時間並與我們的客戶合作時，請記住，我們正試圖在 9 月中旬之前取回前 200 台發動機。因此我認為到九月中旬，我們將對這裡涉及的情況有更好的了解，並且我們將有機會在那時向大家通報最新情況。

I think by the time we get to October, obviously, we'll know even more as we go through some of the initial inspections. So this is a learning process. We understand what it takes to inspect. We understand what it takes in terms of the inductions and the processes. And unless there is some surprise, I think we can have this pretty well bounded in terms of what the cost impact is, in terms of what the cash flow impact is. And so by the time we get to third quarter call, again, obviously, we'll have a hell of a lot more knowledge than we do sitting here today.

我認為，到十月的時候，透過進行一些初步檢查，我們顯然會了解更多情況。所以這是一個學習的過程。我們了解檢查需要什麼。我們了解誘導和過程需要什麼。除非出現意外情況，否則我認為我們可以很好地限制其對成本和現金流的影響。因此，當我們召開第三季電話會議時，顯然，我們將比今天坐在這裡擁有更多的知識。

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自考恩的 Cai von Rumohr。

So by my calculations, you delivered something like 1,600, 1,700 GTFs by the middle of '21. So how do we get to 1,200 engines? I mean are we sure that's the number? Could it be a larger number? And is this just related to the PW1000? Or does it also impact the Vs?

因此，根據我的計算，到 21 年中期，你們交付了大約 1,600 到 1,700 架 GTF。那我們要如何才能達到 1,200 台引擎呢？我的意思是我們確定這個數字嗎？有可能是更大的數字嗎？這僅與 PW1000 有關嗎？或者它也會影響 Vs 嗎？

Yes. So let me start maybe with the second part first, Cai. Our current assessment is that we don't expect the same type of impact on the V2500. It has had an enhanced inspection fleet plan and management plan in place for some time. And as I noted, and as Greg noted, we've completed a significant number of those inspections thus far and feel comfortable that this can be managed at this point within the existing shop visit forecast. We're going to -- as Greg noted, we're still going through that analysis. So it will take us into August to finalize that, but that's our current expectation.

是的。那麼蔡，我先從第二部開始。我們目前的評估是，我們預計 V2500 不會受到相同的影響。該公司已經實施了一段時間的密集檢查車隊計劃和管理計劃。正如我和格雷格指出的那樣，到目前為止，我們已經完成了大量檢查，並且有信心在現有的店鋪訪問預測範圍內完成這些檢查。正如格雷格所說，我們仍在進行分析。因此我們需要到八月才能最終確定，但這是我們目前的預期。

Same on the other neo applications. There are different characteristics and attributes on those engines, whether it be stress on the part, whether it be thrust that we believe differentiates it from the 1100 and such. Our current assessment is those can be managed within the existing shop visit forecast that we have for 2024.

其他 neo 應用程式也一樣。這些引擎具有不同的特性和屬性，無論是零件上的壓力，還是我們認為與 1100 不同的推力等等。我們目前的評估是，這些問題可以在我們對 2024 年的現有店鋪訪問預測範圍內得到管理。

In terms of the population, Cai, you heard Greg talk about when we bounded the material -- the potentially contaminated material. We put in place the enhanced processes for powdered metal at that time and also put in the enhanced inspection techniques that we've talked about. Many of the engines that have come off -- all the engines that have come off since that time have gone through this inspection and have been a part of what we would call this better powder processing regime. And so ultimately, we will inspect parts when they come in for their normal shop visit down the line, Cai. As you know, these engines will come back in for shop visits, and we will inspect this, among other things, during that time.

蔡，就人口而言，你聽到格雷格談到我們何時限製材料——潛在受污染的材料。我們當時實施了粉末金屬的增強工藝，並採用了我們談到的增強檢測技術。從那時起，許多已經下線的引擎——所有下線的引擎都經過了這項檢查，並成為我們所說的更好的粉末處理制度的一部分。因此，最終，當零件進入車間進行正常檢查時，我們會對其進行檢查，蔡。如您所知，這些引擎將會返回車間進行檢查，在此期間我們將對此進行檢查以及其他檢查。

What we're talking about right now are those that we need to accelerate the shop visit for. And again, that's based on all the variables that we talked about. So we feel confident that the -- as part of the Safety Management Board that Pratt has, that we've got the right population and the right plan in place.

我們現在討論的是那些需要加快店內訪問的事情。再次強調，這是基於我們討論過的所有變數。因此，我們相信—作為普惠安全管理委員會的一部分，我們已經擁有了合適的人員並制定了正確的計劃。

Just one quick follow-on. We've hit on all the negatives, but you just got this announcement of this $2.9 billion potential AMRAAM order from Germany. Can you give us some color on your munitions outlook, I mean, in the out years? Is that substantially better?

只需快速跟進一下。我們已經談到了所有的負面消息，但您剛剛收到了德國宣布的價值 29 億美元的潛在 AMRAAM 訂單。您能否向我們介紹未來幾年的彈藥前景？這樣真的好很多嗎？

Yes, Cai, it's nice to talk about something else other than GTF. But yes, look, this AMRAAM order is an order that will be for both Germany, really for all of the NATO countries, that will also benefit Ukraine. And I would tell you that is on top of what we expect to see as a relatively large order for GEM-T missiles associated with the Patriot Air Defense System. We have orders there from Saudi Arabia. We have orders coming from NATO. I think in the back half of the year, you're going to see significant -- we're planning significant order intake on both AMRAAM and GEM-T as well as, of course, Excalibur. We got this -- Neil has mentioned, we got the Javelin order. We had the Stinger order already. Those orders will continue to grow.

是的，蔡，很高興談論 GTF 以外的其他事情。但是的，你看，這項 AMRAAM 訂單不僅對德國，實際上對所有北約國家都是有利的，而且對烏克蘭也有好處。我想告訴你們，我們預計將看到與愛國者防空系統相關的 GEM-T 飛彈的較大訂單。我們有來自沙烏地阿拉伯的訂單。我們收到了來自北約的命令。我認為在今年下半年，你會看到顯著的——我們計劃在 AMRAAM 和 GEM-T 以及 Excalibur 上大量接收訂單。我們收到了這個——尼爾提到過，我們收到了 Javelin 訂單。我們已經收到了 Stinger 訂單。這些訂單將繼續增長。

I'll tell you right now, we still have only seen $2 billion of orders associated specifically with Ukraine replenishment. We think there's probably another $2.5 billion coming in the next 12 months associated with just the Ukraine replenishment on top of the GEM-T. And the GEM-Ts again, they'll go to Germany, they'll go to Poland, they'll go to all 18 of those countries that are currently operating Patriot. So I think that's a very positive sign, and that's why we're so bullish on the Defense outlook for the next couple of years.

我現在就告訴你，我們仍然只看到 20 億美元的專門與烏克蘭補給相關的訂單。我們認為，未來 12 個月內，除了 GEM-T 之外，可能還會有另外 25 億美元用於向烏克蘭提供補充資金。 GEM-T 將前往德國、波蘭，以及目前正在運作愛國者飛彈的所有 18 個國家。所以我認為這是一個非常正面的訊號，這也是我們如此看好未來幾年國防前景的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯 (David Strauss)。

Sorry, back to the GTF. Sorry. I just wanted to ask you about how closely coordinated you are at this point with the regulatory bodies with regard to this? And have they kind of signed off on your plan? Or is there any risk here of potentially the population or the timeline of these inspections getting accelerated?

抱歉，回到 GTF。對不起。我只是想問一下，目前您與監管機構在這方面的協調有多密切？他們是否已經同意你的計畫了？或是否存在人口或檢查時間表加速的風險？

Yes. Thanks, David. This is Chris. I would say, all of this has been very closely coordinated with the FAA. I think you heard me upfront talk about that this will come in the form of a service bulletin that Pratt will publish and then likely an AD that the FAA will distribute. But our safety management process, whether it be through events that happen in the field, things that we find through our continuous surveillance process or recommendations and assessment like this, are always very closely coordinated with the FAA and then, of course, with the other international regulatory bodies as well. FAA, of course, is where we start. But we, of course, continue to coordinate with the FAA and those other international bodies. But bottom line, very closely coordinated with them.

是的。謝謝，大衛。這是克里斯。我想說，所有這些都與美國聯邦航空局進行了非常密切的協調。我想您已經聽我說過，這將以普拉特發布的服務公告的形式出現，然後很可能以美國聯邦航空局分發的 AD 的形式出現。但是，我們的安全管理流程，無論是透過現場發生的事件，還是透過持續監視過程發現的情況，還是像這樣的建議和評估，始終與美國聯邦航空局以及其他國際監管機構密切協調。當然，我們從 FAA 開始。但我們當然會繼續與美國聯邦航空局和其他國際機構進行協調。但底線是，與他們密切協調。

Okay. And a quick follow-up. You keep mentioning fallout rate, low fallout rate. I assume that is where you actually have to replace the high-pressure turbine disc. What exactly have you assumed in terms of a fallout rate? And I guess, given it sounds like the inspection here is pretty involved, how much more involved would it be and costly to be to actually replace the high-pressure turbine blades versus just the inspection -- or disc, sorry.

好的。並進行快速跟進。您一直提到後果率，低後果率。我認為您實際上必須更換高壓渦輪盤。就後果率而言，您具體假設了什麼？我想，考慮到這裡的檢查聽起來相當複雜，那麼實際更換高壓渦輪葉片與僅僅檢查——或者檢查圓盤，抱歉——相比，會復雜得多，成本高得多。

Yes. So you're absolutely right. That's what fallout rate means, those that we inspect and decide need to be removed and replaced. Again, our experience has been that's been very, very low. If we -- if, of course, we had to replace the turbine discs, then we factor that into the turnaround time. And that will, of course, potentially add some time to the process. But as of now, again, David, our assumption, and we're continuing to work through that and through the month of August here, but our assumption, based on everything that we've seen thus far, is that the fallout rate will be very low, and that's what's embedded in our assumptions today.

是的。所以你完全正確。這就是放射性塵埃率的意思，那些我們檢查後決定需要移除和替換的東西。再說一次，我們的經驗是這個比例非常非常低。如果我們——當然，如果我們必須更換渦輪盤，那麼我們會將其計入週轉時間。當然，這可能會增加這個過程的時間。但是截至目前，大衛，我們仍舊在努力實現我們的假設，並且會在整個八月份繼續努力實現這一假設，但是，根據我們迄今為止所看到的一切，我們的假設是，後果率將非常低，這就是我們今天的假設。

Yes. David, keep in mind, in order to do the inspection, and as Chris said, we literally have to pull the high-pressure turbine disc off of the engine and put it through this inspection protocol. Now whether we put that disc back on or a brand new one, it's not a significant impact. It is -- again, with a very, very low expected fallout ratio, I wouldn't -- of all the things I worry about, that would be low on the list. We have plenty of capacity for turbine disc out of Columbus, especially given the what we expect to be a very small number of replacements. So that is, I would say, the most manageable portion of this.

是的。大衛，請記住，為了進行檢查，正如克里斯所說，我們必須將高壓渦輪盤從引擎上拉下來，並按照檢查規程進行。現在，無論我們放回該光碟還是放一張全新的光碟，都不會產生重大影響。再次強調，由於預期後果率非常非常低，因此，在我擔心的所有事情中，這不會排在最後。我們在哥倫布擁有充足的渦輪盤產能，特別是考慮到我們預計更換的數量非常少。所以我想說，這是最容易管理的部分。

Our final question will come from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克。

On the powdered metal, are you able to bound at this point, whether you expect the free cash impact next year to be larger or smaller than this year? And then also following up on the Raytheon defense margins, can you just spend another minute on the fixed price development programs you're citing? Which ones are they? When do they move out of the development phase? And how do they play into the multiyear margin expansion you're expecting?

關於粉末金屬，您現在能否確定，您預計明年的自由現金影響是比今年更大還是更小？然後，再跟進雷神公司的國防利潤，您能否再花一點時間討論一下您所引用的固定價格開發計劃？它們是什麼？他們什麼時候結束開發階段？它們對您預期的多年利潤率擴張有何影響？

Sure. Yes. First of all, on the free cash flow, again, Noah, I hate to keep saying this, but we really need a little bit more time to put a finer point on our estimates, and we will come back to you on that part as it relates to '24 and beyond. But think we've talked at length about what the considerations are there and how we'll be thinking about that. And that there is a possibility that some of these shop visits are already planned, and there'll be effects that counterbalance some of this in the out year. So more to come on that front.

當然。是的。首先，關於自由現金流，諾亞，我再次不想再說這個，但我們確實需要更多一點時間來對我們的估算進行更精細的闡述，當涉及到 24 年及以後的問題時，我們會再向您報告。但我們認為我們已經詳細討論了需要考慮的問題以及我們將如何考慮這些問題。並且有可能其中一些商店訪問已經計劃好了，並且明年將會產生抵消其中部分影響的效果。關於這方面還有更多內容。

On the defense margins, you'll recall back in Paris, I talked about $40 million to $50 million of headwinds we expected from the RI&S business, and that happened just as we expected as we closed out the quarter. It's literally a few contracts. I'd say most of them are classified, so hard to get into the names.

在國防利潤率方面，您會記得，在巴黎，我談到了我們預計 RI&S 業務將面臨 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元的逆風，而這正如我們在本季度結束時所預期的那樣。這其實就是幾份合約。我想說大多數都是機密，所以很難說出名字。

The duration, I'd say the most -- the period of time that we're looking at, probably 18, 24 months before those programs are fully behind us. We're in the test phase. We're obviously learning through that phase. But I think we have a little bit longer to go here. I think we've got it calibrated in the second half of our year outlook, but all the right resources are on it. And like I said, absent that, we are seeing productivity turn in the rest of the business. So it really is a focused set of programs that we're dealing with.

我想說的是，我們預計的持續時間大概是 18 到 24 個月，這些項目才能完全結束。我們正處於測試階段。我們顯然正在經歷這個階段的學習。但我認為我們還需要更長的時間。我認為我們已經在下半年的展望中對其進行了調整，所有正確的資源都集中在它上面。正如我所說的，除此之外，我們也看到其他業務的生產力正在轉變。所以，我們處理的確實是一組有針​​對性的程序。

Okay. Thanks, everybody, for listening in. Just to put all this in perspective, I think you need to keep in mind, we have very strong franchises between Collins, Raytheon and Pratt & Whitney and the $185 billion of backlog. I know this GTF issue, this quality issue, is a bit of a surprise. We have been working it for the last, I would say, 10 days or so. We will know a lot more in the next 6 weeks. And as the information becomes available, we will, of course, be sharing it with investors. But again, keep in mind, this is a small piece of what is a great franchise across RTX.

好的。謝謝大家的收聽。為了全面地看待這一切，我認為你需要記住，我們在柯林斯、雷神和普惠之間擁有非常強大的特許經營權，並且有 1850 億美元的積壓訂單。我知道這個 GTF 問題、這個品質問題有點令人驚訝。我想說，我們已經工作了大約10天了。在接下來的六週內，我們將了解更多。一旦資訊可用，我們當然會與投資者分享。但請再次記住，這只是 RTX 偉大系列的一小部分。

Having said that, Jennifer and her team are obviously going to be available the next couple of days to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you all for listening and take care. Bye-bye.

話雖如此，Jennifer 和她的團隊顯然會在接下來的幾天內回答您的任何後續問題。謝謝大家的聆聽並保重。再見。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。