雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 RTX 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫拉蒂夫，今天我將擔任您的接線員。謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www.rtx.com.

今天參加電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官 Greg Hayes； Chris Calio，總裁兼首席運營官；尼爾·米切爾，首席財務官；詹妮弗·里德（Jennifer Reed），投資者關係副總裁。此次電話會議正在互聯網上進行網絡直播，並且可以從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載演示文稿。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX's SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和淨非經常性和/或重大項目，通常被管理層稱為其他重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述均面臨風險和不確定性。 RTX 的 SEC 文件，包括其表格 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細信息（操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

這樣，我會將電話轉給海耶斯先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. It was another strong quarter for RTX with continued strength across all of our end markets. On the commercial aerospace side, industry-wide, we saw 1,200 new orders announced around the Paris Air Show. This is the largest number of orders in the history of the air show, as airlines look to secure production slots well into the next decade.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。對於 RTX 來說，這是又一個強勁的季度，我們所有的終端市場都持續強勁。在商業航空航天方面，整個行業，我們在巴黎航展期間宣布了 1,200 個新訂單。這是航展歷史上訂單數量最多的一次，因為航空公司希望在未來十年確保生產位置。

Global commercial air traffic remains on track with our projections with a very robust summer travel season, driven by incredibly strong consumer demand. This dynamic is supporting strength in the aftermarket and growth across the globe with revenue passenger kilometers now tracking at about 95% of 2019 levels. And long-haul international, which has lagged in the recovery, is showing strong growth with passenger flight hours up 18 points year-over-year, a good indicator of increasing demand for wide-body travel.

在極其強勁的消費者需求的推動下，全球商業航空交通仍符合我們的預測，夏季旅遊旺季非常強勁。這種動態支持了售後市場的實力和全球增長，目前客運公里數收入約為 2019 年水平的 95%。復甦滯後的長途國際航班正呈現強勁增長，客運飛行時間同比增加 18 個百分點，這是寬體旅行需求不斷增長的良好指標。

Turning to defense. We're pleased that the House Defense Appropriation bill fully funds many of our programs, including, importantly, the F135 engine core upgrade, which is the only engine funded for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Additionally, the bill also recommends the full budget request for other key RTX programs, such as LTAMDS, LRSO, hypersonics and Standard Missile-3.

轉向防守。我們很高興眾議院國防撥款法案為我們的許多項目提供了全額資助，其中重要的是 F135 發動機核心升級，這是唯一為 F-35 聯合攻擊戰鬥機提供資助的發動機。此外，該法案還建議對其他關鍵 RTX 項目提出全額預算要求，例如 LTAMDS、LRSO、高超音速和標準 Missile-3。

Internationally, we saw the State Department approved a large sale of advanced air defense systems for Poland as it bolsters its security amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This would expand our existing partnership with Poland and make Poland the first international customer for our LTAMDS system, representing a key transition for this next-generation Raytheon franchise.

在國際上，我們看到美國國務院批准向波蘭出售大量先進防空系統，以在烏克蘭持續衝突的情況下加強波蘭的安全。這將擴大我們與波蘭的現有合作夥伴關係，並使波蘭成為我們 LTAMDS 系統的第一個國際客戶，代表著下一代雷神公司特許經營權的關鍵轉變。

Before we get into details of the quarter, as you saw in our press release this morning, we are working through an issue resulting from a rare condition in powdered metal that will require Pratt & Whitney to remove some engines from service for inspection earlier than expected.

在我們詳細介紹本季度的細節之前，正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們正在解決由粉末金屬的罕見情況引起的問題，該問題將要求普惠公司比預期提前停止使用一些發動機進行檢查。

I want to make just a couple of comments here at the outset. First of all, it's important to know that we understand the issue, and we have begun to address it through an inspection protocol that we already have in place. That said, clearly, this will have an impact on Pratt & Whitney and our customers. Chris and Neil will provide additional color later in the call on how we're going to address the issue as well as the operational and financial impacts. As you'd expect, we'll dedicate all the necessary resources to manage this.

首先我想發表幾點評論。首先，重要的是要知道我們了解這個問題，並且我們已經開始通過我們已經制定的檢查協議來解決這個問題。也就是說，顯然這將對普惠公司和我們的客戶產生影響。克里斯和尼爾將在稍後的電話會議中提供更多信息，說明我們將如何解決該問題以及運營和財務影響。正如您所期望的，我們將投入所有必要的資源來管理這一問題。

Now let's turn to Slide 2 to go through some key highlights from the quarter. Q2 was another strong quarter of strong demand in both the commercial and defense segments of our business with $25 billion of new orders. This brings our total backlog to a record $185 billion. On the commercial side, Collins continues to convert its industry-leading portfolio into solid order strength. As I mentioned, industry-wide, there were about 1,200 new aircraft orders announced in Paris. The aggregate amount of Collins and Pratt content on those aircraft will be about $20 billion for the life of the programs.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 2，了解本季度的一些關鍵亮點。第二季度是我們業務的商業和國防領域需求強勁的另一個強勁季度，新訂單達 250 億美元。這使得我們的積壓總額達到創紀錄的 1,850 億美元。在商業方面，柯林斯繼續將其行業領先的產品組合轉化為堅實的訂單實力。正如我提到的，整個行業在巴黎宣布了大約 1,200 架新飛機訂單。在這些項目的生命週期內，這些飛機上的柯林斯和普拉特內容總計約為 200 億美元。

On the defense side, across the RTX businesses, we captured $13 billion in new bookings in the quarter, driving a strong book-to-bill of 1.22, and this takes our defense backlog to $73 billion.

在國防方面，整個 RTX 業務中，本季度我們獲得了 130 億美元的新訂單，訂單出貨比達到 1.22，這使得我們的國防積壓訂單達到 730 億美元。

Contributing to the backlog in the second quarter were a number of significant awards, including $2 billion at Pratt & Whitney for the Lot 17 of the F135 engines and $1.5 billion for 117 sustainment.

第二季度訂單積壓的原因有很多，其中包括普惠公司為第 17 批 F135 發動機提供 20 億美元的資金以及為 117 號發動機提供 15 億美元的資金。

The Raytheon segment was awarded its largest-ever AMRAAM contract for $1.2 billion from the U.S. Air Force and international partners, including Ukraine. The AMRAAMs will work in concert with their existing NASAM batteries to help protect the Ukrainian people.

雷神公司部門從美國空軍和包括烏克蘭在內的國際合作夥伴那裡獲得了價值 12 億美元的有史以來最大的 AMRAAM 合同。 AMRAAM 將與現有的 NASAM 電池協同工作，幫助保護烏克蘭人民。

Earlier this month, we executed the business realignment. We are now officially operating as 3 business units. Our team has done a tremendous job in a relatively short period of time, shifting roughly $3 billion of sales and thousands of employees across our portfolio to better meet the evolving needs of our customers. Of course, our transformation isn't done. We will continue to develop initiatives to better leverage our scale and breadth and to enable operational excellence and a best-in-class cost structure.

本月早些時候，我們進行了業務調整。我們現在正式作為 3 個業務部門運營。我們的團隊在相對較短的時間內完成了巨大的工作，在我們的產品組合中轉移了大約 30 億美元的銷售額和數千名員工，以更好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。當然，我們的轉變還沒有完成。我們將繼續制定舉措，以更好地利用我們的規模和廣度，實現卓越運營和一流的成本結構。

Finally, as many of you saw last week, we agreed to divest Collins' actuation business to Safran. We expect this deal to close in the second half of 2024. The proceeds from the transaction will be about $1.8 billion.

最後，正如你們許多人上週看到的那樣，我們同意將柯林斯的驅動業務剝離給賽峰集團。我們預計這筆交易將於 2024 年下半年完成。交易收益約為 18 億美元。

With respect to our full year outlook, we're going to raise the top line to reflect the strength we're seeing in our end markets. The new range will be $73 billion to $74 billion. And we're also going to bring up the bottom end of our adjusted EPS range by $0.05 to $4.95 to $5.05. However, we are going to reduce our 2023 cash flow expectations by $500 million to $4.3 billion. This is primarily to reflect the developments at Pratt & Whitney that I've discussed earlier.

關於我們的全年展望，我們將提高營收，以反映我們在終端市場看到的實力。新的範圍將為 730 億美元至 740 億美元。我們還將調整後每股收益範圍的下限上調 0.05 美元至 4.95 美元至 5.05 美元。然而，我們將 2023 年現金流預期減少 5 億美元，至 43 億美元。這主要是為了反映我之前討論過的普惠公司的發展。

So with that, let me turn it over to Neil to walk you through our financial results in more detail. Neil?

因此，讓我將其交給尼爾，讓您更詳細地了解我們的財務業績。尼爾？

Thanks, Greg. Let's look at Q2 results on Slide 3. As Greg noted, we had another solid quarter with sales of $18.3 billion, up a strong 13% organically versus the prior year with growth across all 4 of our segments. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 was up 11% year-over-year, with strong adjusted segment operating profit growth of 26%, partially offset by lower pension income and a higher effective tax rate.

謝謝，格雷格。讓我們看一下幻燈片 3 上的第二季度業績。正如 Greg 指出的那樣，我們又迎來了一個穩健的季度，銷售額達到 183 億美元，與上一年相比有機增長了 13%，所有 4 個細分市場均實現增長。調整後每股收益為 1.29 美元，同比增長 11%，調整後部門營業利潤強勁增長 26%，部分被較低的養老金收入和較高的有效稅率所抵消。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.90 per share and included $0.26 of acquisition accounting adjustments, an $0.08 charge related to an airline customer insolvency and $0.05 of restructuring and segment and portfolio transformation costs. Free cash flow of $193 million was generally in line with what we discussed when we were together in Paris last month.

按 GAAP 計算，持續經營業務的每股收益為 0.90 美元，其中包括 0.26 美元的收購會計調整、與航空公司客戶破產相關的 0.08 美元費用以及 0.05 美元的重組以及部門和投資組合轉型成本。 1.93 億美元的自由現金流與我們上個月在巴黎相聚時討論的情況基本一致。

And finally, on the capital allocation front, we repurchased $596 million in shares, putting us at about $1.2 billion year-to-date, on track for $3 billion in share repurchases for the full year.

最後，在資本配置方面，我們回購了 5.96 億美元的股票，使我們今年迄今的股票回購額約為 12 億美元，全年有望回購 30 億美元的股票。

So let's turn to Slide 4 to get into the Q2 segment results. Beginning with RMD, sales were $4 billion in the quarter, up 12% on an adjusted basis and 13% organically, primarily driven by higher volume from Air Power, Advanced Technology and Land Warfare & Air Defense programs. Adjusted operating profit of $427 million was up $79 million versus the prior year, driven by favorable net program efficiencies and drop-through on higher volume, partially offset by unfavorable mix resulting from early-stage production programs.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 4 來了解第二季度的結果。從 RMD 開始，本季度銷售額為 40 億美元，調整後增長 12%，有機增長 13%，這主要是由空中力量、先進技術以及陸地戰爭和防空項目銷量增加推動的。調整後營業利潤為 4.27 億美元，比上年增加 7,900 萬美元，這得益於良好的淨計劃效率和產量增加的下降，但部分被早期生產計劃造成的不利組合所抵消。

RMD had $3.6 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $35 billion. In addition to the AMRAAM award that Greg mentioned earlier, RMD also received a $265 million award for Javelin and a $251 million award for AIM-9X missiles. Year-to-date, RMD has a book-to-bill of 1.17.

RMD 本季度的訂單量為 36 億美元，訂單出貨比為 0.92，積壓金額為 350 億美元。除了格雷格之前提到的 AMRAAM 合同外，RMD 還獲得了標槍 2.65 億美元合同和 AIM-9X 導彈 2.51 億美元合同。年初至今，RMD 的訂單出貨比為 1.17。

Shifting to RI&S on Slide 5. Sales of $3.7 billion were up 2% versus the prior year on an adjusted and organic basis. This was driven by higher revenue from Sensing & Effects as well as Cyber & Services programs, which was partially offset by lower sales from Command, Control & Communications programs.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的 RI&S。按調整後的有機銷售額計算，銷售額為 37 億美元，比上年增長 2%。這是由傳感與效果以及網絡與服務項目的收入增加所推動的，但指揮、控制與通信項目的銷售額下降部分抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $297 million was down $18 million versus prior year, primarily due to unfavorable mix and higher operating expenses, which more than offset improved productivity and drop-through on higher volume. However, as I mentioned in June, we still saw unfavorable productivity in the quarter due to a handful of fixed price development programs.

本季度調整後營業利潤為 2.97 億美元，比去年同期減少 1,800 萬美元，主要是由於不利的組合和較高的營業費用，這遠遠抵消了生產率的提高和銷量增加的影響。然而，正如我在 6 月份提到的，由於少數固定價格開發計劃，我們在本季度的生產率仍然不佳。

In the quarter, RI&S had $3.1 billion of bookings, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.96 and a backlog of $17 billion. Bookings in Q2 at RI&S included about $1.1 billion in classified awards and $322 million for federal and civil cyber defense services. And on a year-to-date basis, RI&S has a book-to-bill of 1.15.

本季度，RI&S 的訂單量為 31 億美元，訂單出貨比為 0.96，積壓訂單為 170 億美元。 RI&S 第二季度的預訂包括約 11 億美元的機密獎勵以及 3.22 億美元的聯邦和民間網絡防禦服務。年初至今，RI&S 的訂單出貨比為 1.15。

Turning to Collins on Slide 6. Sales were $5.9 billion in the quarter, up 17% on an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by strong demand across commercial aerospace end markets, which resulted in higher flight hours and higher OE production rates. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 29%, driven by a 68% increase in provisioning and a 28% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 9% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 7%.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的柯林斯。該季度的銷售額為 59 億美元，調整後有機增長 17%，這主要是由商業航空終端市場的強勁需求推動的，這導致了更長的飛行時間和更高的原廠生產率。按渠道劃分，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 29%，這得益於供應增長 68%、零件和維修增長 28%，而本季度改裝和升級有機增長 9%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 7%。

On the commercial OE side, commercial OE sales were up 14% versus the prior year, which included growth in wide-body, narrow-body and business jets. And military sales were up 5% due to higher development volume. Adjusted operating profit of $837 million was up $220 million or 36% from the prior year with drop-through on higher sales volume and favorable mix, which more than offset higher production costs as well as higher R&D and SG&A expenses.

在商用原件方面，商用原件銷量較上年增長 14%，其中包括寬體機、窄體機和公務機的增長。由於開發量增加，軍售增長了 5%。調整後營業利潤為 8.37 億美元，比上年增長 2.2 億美元，增幅為 36%，這歸因於銷量的增加和有利的產品組合，這足以抵消生產成本的上升以及研發和銷售、一般管理費用的上升。

Turning to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 7. Sales of $5.7 billion were up 15% on an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across the commercial segments, partially offset by lower military volume. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 26% in the quarter due to higher shop visit volume and content in both large commercial engine and Pratt & Whitney Canada businesses. Commercial OE sales were up 22% in the quarter on higher engine deliveries and favorable mix.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的普惠公司。調整後的有機銷售額為 57 億美元，增長了 15%，商業領域的銷售額增長，部分被軍用銷量下降所抵消。由於大型商用發動機和普惠加拿大業務的商店訪問量和內容增加，本季度商業售後市場銷售額增長了 26%。由於發動機交付量增加和有利的產品組合，本季度商用原配設備銷量增長了 22%。

And in the military business, sales were down 3%. The decline in sales was driven by the timing of the F135 production contract award in the prior year, which was partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume this year. Adjusted operating profit of $436 million was up $133 million from prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales and favorable large commercial OE mix, partially offset by higher production costs and higher R&D expenses. Note that both this quarter and the prior year quarter had a similar-sized contract benefit of roughly $60 million.

軍事業務的銷售額下降了 3%。銷量下降是由於上一年授予 F135 生產合同的時間造成的，但今年 F135 維持量的增加部分抵消了這一影響。調整後營業利潤為 4.36 億美元，比上年增加 1.33 億美元，這是由於商業售後市場銷售額的增加和有利的大型商業原廠組合的下降，部分被生產成本和研發費用的增加所抵消。請注意，本季度和去年同期的合同收益規模相似，約為 6000 萬美元。

With that, before we get into the updated outlook for 2023, let me turn it over to Chris to give some additional color on the Pratt fleet.

因此，在我們討論 2023 年的最新展望之前，讓我將其交給 Chris，為 Pratt 機隊提供一些額外的信息。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. Let me share with you what I can at this point about the Pratt matter. As you heard from Greg, Pratt previously determined that a rare condition in powdered metal used to manufacture certain engine parts may reduce the life of those parts. Now it's important to note upfront that the current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. I'll come back to that in a minute.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。讓我與你們分享目前我能了解到的有關普拉特事件的信息。正如您從格雷格那裡聽到的那樣，普拉特之前確定，用於製造某些發動機零件的粉末金屬中的一種罕見情況可能會縮短這些零件的壽命。現在需要注意的是，目前粉末金屬零件的生產並未受到影響，普拉特將繼續在所有產品線提供新發動機和新備件。我稍後會回過頭來討論這一點。

As a result of this rare condition in powdered metal, Pratt instituted enhanced inspections to be performed at scheduled shop visits. However, based on very recent learnings from these inspections, Pratt has now determined that the timing of these shop visits needs to be accelerated. While powdered metal parts have been widely used throughout Pratt's product lines for decades, Pratt has bounded the potentially impacted material. It has concluded that this condition was present in rare instances in powdered metal produced from approximately Q4 2015 into Q3 2021.

由於粉末金屬中存在這種罕見的情況，普拉特在計劃的車間巡查中加強了檢查。然而，根據最近從這些檢查中獲得的信息，普拉特現在確定需要加快這些商店訪問的時間。雖然粉末金屬零件已在普拉特的整個產品線中廣泛使用數十年，但普拉特已經限制了可能受影響的材料。結論是，這種情況在 2015 年第四季度至 2021 年第三季度生產的粉末金屬中很少出現。

The PW1100 engine fleet, which powers the A320neo, will experience the most significant impact due to production volumes during this period. Based on the current assessment, Pratt anticipates by mid-September that approximately 200 PW1100 engines will be removed for enhanced inspection. Beyond the initial 200 engines, Pratt also anticipates that approximately 1,000 additional PW1100 engines will need to be removed from the operating fleet for this inspection within the next 9 to 12 months, but the exact number of engines and the timing of those removals is not yet finalized.

為 A320neo 提供動力的 PW1100 發動機群將因這段時期的產量而受到最重大的影響。根據目前的評估，普拉特預計到 9 月中旬將拆除大約 200 台 PW1100 發動機以進行加強檢查。除了最初的 200 台發動機外，普拉特還預計，在未來 9 到 12 個月內，還需要從運營機隊中拆除大約 1,000 台額外的 PW1100 發動機進行此次檢查，但發動機的確切數量和拆除時間尚未最終確定。

Now it's important to note that some of the engines that must be removed for inspection in 2023 and 2024 are already forecasted for regular shop visit during this time period, and so the incremental impact of the fleet is still under evaluation. Capability to perform the accelerated inspections, which are focused on the high-pressure turbine discs, is already in place, and Pratt is developing plans to optimize shop visit capacity within its network to complete these inspections as quickly and efficiently as possible.

現在值得注意的是，一些必須在 2023 年和 2024 年拆除進行檢查的發動機預計將在這段時間內定期進行車間檢查，因此機隊的增量影響仍在評估中。執行加速檢查（主要針對高壓渦輪盤）的能力已經到位，普拉特正在製定計劃，優化其網絡內的車間訪問能力，以盡可能快速、高效地完成這些檢查。

As I said earlier, current production of powdered metal parts is not impacted, and Pratt will continue to deliver both new engines and new spare parts across all product lines. This is a result of the combination of extensive improvements that were made to our powder processing to remove possible contamination sources and the deployment of enhanced inspections for improved detection.

正如我之前所說，目前粉末金屬零件的生產沒有受到影響，普拉特將繼續在所有產品線提供新發動機和新備件。這是我們對粉末加工進行廣泛改進以消除可能的污染源以及部署增強檢查以改進檢測相結合的結果。

Pratt is also analyzing any potential impact to other parts of its fleet, but the current expectation is that they will be less impacted based upon existing inspections, utilization profiles and maintenance intervals. So let me take a moment to explain the timing of these developments.

普拉特還在分析對其機隊其他部分的潛在影響，但目前的預期是，根據現有的檢查、使用情況和維護間隔，這些部分受到的影響將較小。因此，讓我花點時間解釋一下這些事態發展的時間安排。

We proactively monitor the performance of our engines throughout their life cycle. It's foundational to how we maintain and manage the safe operation of our fleet, and we do this in a number of ways: analyzing large amounts of data generated during operation, inspecting parts and MRO, destructively testing certain parts to analyze their material properties and characterizing what we observe. We use learnings from this proactive monitoring to inform our predictive models, so we can address any issues before they appear on our fleet.

我們在發動機的整個生命週期中主動監控其性能。這是我們維護和管理車隊安全運行的基礎，我們通過多種方式做到這一點：分析運行過程中生成的大量數據、檢查零件和 MRO、破壞性測試某些零件以分析其材料屬性並表徵我們觀察到的內容。我們利用從這種主動監控中獲得的經驗來為我們的預測模型提供信息，這樣我們就可以在任何問題出現在我們的機隊中之前解決它們。

In this case, as Pratt analyzed some recent inspection findings, it determined the need for an accelerated inspection plan, even though the fallout rate from these inspections is expected to be very low. The next step is for Pratt to publish a service bulletin describing the inspections, then the FAA will likely follow up with an air-worthiness directive.

在這種情況下，普拉特分析了最近的一些檢查結果，確定需要加速檢查計劃，儘管這些檢查的後果率預計非常低。下一步是普拉特發布一份描述檢查的服務公告，然後美國聯邦航空局可能會跟進適航指令。

Financial impact associated with these removals is still being analyzed and will depend on a number of factors, including the result of the inspections; the amount of work needed to be done in our network shops; and of course, the impact on our customers. This is obviously a difficult situation for our customers, especially given the strong demand for travel. We're truly sorry for the impact of this disruption, and we will do all we can to support our customers. Safety always has been and always will be our #1 priority, and we will never compromise on ensuring the safe operation of our fleet. We, of course, continue to keep you apprised as our analysis progresses on both the operational and financial impacts of these accelerated shop visits.

與這些拆除相關的財務影響仍在分析中，並將取決於許多因素，包括檢查結果；我們的網絡商店需要完成的工作量；當然，還有對我們客戶的影響。對於我們的客戶來說，這顯然是一個困難的局面，特別是考慮到旅行需求強勁。對於此次中斷造成的影響，我們深表歉意，我們將竭盡全力支持我們的客戶。安全始終是並且永遠是我們的第一要務，我們在確保機隊安全運營方面絕不會妥協。當然，隨著我們對這些加速商店訪問對運營和財務影響的分析取得進展，我們將繼續向您通報情況。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil to talk about how this impacts our 2023 outlook.

接下來，讓我把它交給 Neil，談談這對我們 2023 年前景的影響。

Thanks, Chris. Let's start with the segment outlook. As Chris mentioned, there continue to be a number of evolving assumptions around the financials of Pratt. Let me try to put some additional color around that, starting with the top line.

謝謝，克里斯。讓我們從細分市場前景開始。正如克里斯所提到的，圍繞普拉特的財務狀況仍有許多不斷變化的假設。讓我嘗試從頂線開始在其周圍添加一些額外的顏色。

Commercial aftermarket demand remains strong, and we are continuing to ramp production. Because of this, we are confident in our prior sales range of up low to mid-teens.

商業售後市場需求依然強勁，我們正在繼續提高產量。正因為如此，我們對之前的銷售範圍充滿信心。

On the profit side, given the strong first half results and continued top line growth, we still expect between $200 million and $275 million of operating profit growth for the year. Within that outlook for Pratt, here's what we are assuming as it relates to the increased engine removals and inspections.

在利潤方面，考慮到上半年的強勁業績和持續的營收增長，我們仍然預計今年的營業利潤增長在 2 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。在普拉特的前景中，以下是我們的假設，因為它與增加發動機拆卸和檢查有關。

Given Pratt's results to date and aftermarket strength, the impact for the first 200 engines is contemplated within the range we just provided. Keep in mind, given the percentage of completion accounting for the aftermarket contracts and the relatively early life of the programs, the P&L impact will be less significant today. However, for the reasons Chris described, the impact of any further engine removals from service for inspection is not currently assumed in our outlook.

鑑於 Pratt 迄今為止的業績和售後市場實力，對前 200 台發動機的影響預計在我們剛剛提供的範圍內。請記住，考慮到售後合同的完成百分比以及項目相對較早的生命週期，今天對損益的影響將不那麼重要。然而，由於克里斯所描述的原因，我們的展望目前並未假設任何進一步的發動機停運檢查的影響。

So moving to Collins. Given the strong results in the first half and the continued strength we are seeing in commercial aftermarket, we are increasing the full year sales range from up low double digits to a new range of up low double digits to low teens. And as a result of this increased demand and continued execution, we now expect Collins' adjusted operating profit to be up between $825 million and $875 million compared to the prior range of $750 million to $825 million.

所以搬到柯林斯。鑑於上半年的強勁業績以及我們在商業售後市場看到的持續強勁勢頭，我們將全年銷售額範圍從低兩位數提高到新的低兩位數到低兩位數。由於需求增加和持續執行，我們現在預計柯林斯調整後的營業利潤將在 8.25 億美元至 8.75 億美元之間增長，而之前的範圍為 7.5 億美元至 8.25 億美元。

Turning to the new Raytheon segment. Given the strength of the backlog and the accelerating top line, we expect sales for the combined segment to grow low to mid-single digits versus 2022. While we have begun to see increased material flow and improved efficiencies, we had lower productivity than we expected in the first half of the year, including costs associated with fixed price development programs. And similar to Q1, we anticipate another contract option exercise that will lead to a headwind in the third quarter. With all that said, we're expecting continued volume growth and second half productivity improvements. And altogether, we see adjusted operating profit up between $125 million and $175 million versus prior year.

轉向新的雷神部分。鑑於積壓量的強勁和收入的加速增長，我們預計合併後的業務部門的銷售額將比 2022 年實現低至中個位數的增長。雖然我們已經開始看到材料流動增加和效率提高，但我們今年上半年的生產率低於預期，包括與固定價格開發計劃相關的成本。與第一季度類似，我們預計另一次合同期權行使將在第三季度帶來不利影響。話雖如此，我們預計下半年銷量將持續增長，生產率將有所提高。總的來說，我們預計調整後的營業利潤比去年增加了 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元。

So now let me summarize all of this at the RTX level. As Greg mentioned, we're increasing our full year RTX sales outlook to $73 billion to $74 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 9% and 10%. This is up from our prior outlook of $72 billion to $73 billion.

現在讓我在 RTX 級別總結所有這些。正如 Greg 提到的，我們將全年 RTX 銷售前景提高至 730 億至 740 億美元，這意味著有機增長在 9% 至 10% 之間。這高於我們之前預期的 720 億美元至 730 億美元。

With respect to earnings, we are tightening our adjusted earnings per share range by $0.05 on the bottom end and now expect adjusted EPS of between $4.95 and $5.05, given the first half results and some improvement in below-the-line items, and we've provided an update on those below-the-line items in the appendices.

就收益而言，考慮到上半年業績和線下項目的一些改善，我們將調整後每股收益範圍收緊了 0.05 美元，現在預計調整後每股收益在 4.95 美元至 5.05 美元之間，考慮到上半年的業績和線下項目的一些改善，我們在附錄中提供了這些線下項目的最新信息。

Turning to free cash flow. The impact of the Pratt matter will be more meaningful on cash flow as we begin to ramp up inspections and MRO activity this year. As a result, we now see free cash flow of approximately $4.3 billion for the year, about $500 million below our prior outlook. And finally, we'll transition to the new segment reporting here in the third quarter, and we've provided the recasted 2022 and 2023 quarterly financials in the appendices.

轉向自由現金流。隨著我們今年開始加強檢查和 MRO 活動，普拉特事件對現金流的影響將更有意義。因此，我們現在預計今年的自由現金流約為 43 億美元，比我們之前的預期低約 5 億美元。最後，我們將在第三季度過渡到新的分部報告，並且我們在附錄中提供了重新調整的 2022 年和 2023 年季度財務數據。

So with that, let me turn it over to Greg for some closing remarks.

那麼，讓我把它交給格雷格做一些結束語。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. So just some closing thoughts before we get to the Q&A. We obviously had a very strong second quarter with $25 billion in new orders, which brings our backlog to a record $185 billion. Sales were also very strong with 13% organic revenue growth. This strength in sales and orders reflects the strength in both our commercial aero and defense markets.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。在我們進行問答之前，請先做一些總結性的思考。顯然，我們第二季度的表現非常強勁，新訂單達 250 億美元，這使我們的積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 1,850 億美元。銷售也非常強勁，有機收入增長 13%。這種銷售和訂單的強勁反映了我們商業航空和國防市場的實力。

RPMs are on track to return to pre-COVID levels as we exit 2023, and military spending globally continues to increase in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the emerging threats in the INDOPACOM theater. Based on the continued strength in our markets, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for 2023 and beyond.

隨著 2023 年的結束，RPM 有望恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平，並且為了應對俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略以及印太司令部戰區新出現的威脅，全球軍費開支繼續增加。基於我們市場的持續實力，我們有能力兌現 2023 年及以後的承諾。

With that, let's open up the call for questions.

接下來，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自Vertical Research 的Robert Stallard。

Let's start with the GTF, shall we? By my count, this is the third issue you're dealing with at the moment. You had that quality escape noted at Paris, the ongoing time on wing issues in these challenging environments and now the metal problem. Is there a root problem or cause that's linking these issues? And are you concerned about the potential impact on Pratt's reputation for reliability?

讓我們從 GTF 開始吧？據我所知，這是您目前正在處理的第三個問題。你在巴黎經歷了一次高質量的逃脫，在這些充滿挑戰的環境中持續解決機翼問題，現在又解決金屬問題。是否存在將這些問題聯繫起來的根本問題或原因？您是否擔心這對普拉特可靠性聲譽的潛在影響？

Yes. Thanks, Rob. This is Chris. I'll start. Obviously, this is a disappointing development and will impact our customers. Let me just sort of take a step back and kind of walk you through sort of the processes that are in place across Pratt.

是的。謝謝，羅布。這是克里斯。我開始吧。顯然，這是一個令人失望的發展，並將影響我們的客戶。讓我退後一步，帶您了解普拉特現有的流程。

It's got a strong process of fleet surveillance, evaluation and taking corrective action that is used to support the safety of the fleet. In this particular case, the process worked. But I will tell you that, again, we continue to monitor the situation with the fleet. We continue to find learnings in the fleet and then we take those actions and update our models and correct them.

它有一個強大的艦隊監視、評估和採取糾正措施的流程，用於支持艦隊的安全。在這個特殊情況下，這個過程奏效了。但我會再次告訴你，我們將繼續監視艦隊的情況。我們繼續在機隊中尋找經驗教訓，然後採取這些行動並更新我們的模型並糾正它們。

But if you step back, this is not a GTF design issue. This is a manufacturing process issue in our powdered metal. We very quickly went and enhanced those processes to make sure this doesn't happen again and put in place the enhanced inspection techniques to make sure that we can continue to find this and address them promptly. So we're taking prompt action.

但如果退一步看，這不是 GTF 設計問題。這是我們粉末金屬的製造工藝問題。我們很快就加強了這些流程，以確保這種情況不會再次發生，並採用了增強的檢查技術，以確保我們能夠繼續發現問題並及時解決它們。因此我們正在迅速採取行動。

Right now, we've got to now work through how we define work scope and the turnaround time that's required. And of course, to all the impact of the fleet, that's going to be required again. We talked about in the comments upfront, GTF is going to have a lot of shop visits here in the back half of '23 and into '24. We need to figure out how many of those are incremental and what the true impact of the fleet is, but that's ongoing. But again, we're going to continue to invest in the GTF and the durability improvements that Shane talked about at Investor Day in June and, of course, the GTF advantage. We will work through this difficult time. But again, we continue to believe in the GTF, its architecture and its future.

現在，我們必須弄清楚如何定義工作範圍和所需的周轉時間。當然，考慮到艦隊的所有影響，這將再次被需要。我們在前面的評論中談到，GTF 將在 23 年下半年和 24 年期間進行大量的商店參觀。我們需要弄清楚其中有多少是增量的，以及機隊的真正影響是什麼，但這是持續的。但同樣，我們將繼續投資 GTF 和 Shane 在 6 月份投資者日談到的耐用性改進，當然還有 GTF 的優勢。我們將努力度過這個困難時期。但我們仍然相信 GTF、它的架構和它的未來。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

And Neil, I'm trying to understand the scaling of the $500 million lower free cash flow to the total population of engines that you're going to be removing and inspecting. I think you said that the 200 -- the first 200 are encompassed in the guidance, but it wasn't clear if that was just the segment profit guidance you were talking about. And also, obviously, this is lingering into '24 to get that whole 1,200 population. So should we think about a similar sized cash impact in '24?

尼爾，我正在嘗試了解 5 億美元的自由現金流下降與您將要拆除和檢查的發動機總數的比例。我認為您說過前 200 個指標包含在指導中，但不清楚這是否只是您所說的部門利潤指導。而且，顯然，這要持續到 24 年才能覆蓋全部 1,200 人。那麼我們是否應該考慮 24 年類似規模的現金影響？

Got it. Let me start with what I can tell you now. First, let me remind you, it's very early in this process. We have begun to investigate what the cost and the work scope and the timing might be, but there'll be some learnings over the next 30 to 60 days, and we'll certainly come back and talk to you a little bit about that.

知道了。讓我從現在可以告訴你的開始。首先，讓我提醒您，這個過程還處於早期階段。我們已經開始調查成本、工作範圍和時間安排，但在接下來的 30 到 60 天內將會有一些收穫，我們肯定會回來與您討論這一點。

As I think about the guidance, the comment I made with respect to the Pratt guidance, again, we had a first half that was very strong at Pratt. I think we're well on track for the year, all else equal. But a couple of dynamics that will likely keep the P&L impact associated with the 200 accelerated inspections manageable for the year.

當我思考指導意見時，我對普拉特指導意見所做的評論再次表明，我們在普拉特的上半場表現非常強勁。我認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，今年我們進展順利。但有一些動態可能會使今年 200 次加速檢查相關的損益影響保持在可控範圍內。

First is we've talked about 85% of this fleet is under a long-term contract. And we're less than 5% complete on those programs on average. And so as Chris just mentioned, we don't know exactly how many, but some of those 200 are already scheduled for a visit this year. So when we think about those 2 things, that sort of helps us bound what the impact would be for this year with respect to that population. Given the 1,000 and the fact that a number of those are also already scheduled for a shop visit, we still need some more time to go think through that.

首先，我們已經討論過，該機隊 85% 簽訂了長期合同。我們這些計劃的平均完成率還不到 5%。正如克里斯剛才提到的，我們不知道具體有多少人，但是這 200 人中的一些人已經計劃今年訪問。因此，當我們考慮這兩件事時，這可以幫助我們確定今年對該人口的影響。考慮到這 1,000 人，而且其中一些人也已經安排去商店參觀，我們仍然需要更多時間來考慮這個問題。

As it relates to the cash flow, similar train of thought there. We really do need a little bit more time to go through this. But we put a risk into our outlook because we know that we'll have some calls on cash over the rest of the year. I would say there's 2 things that are impacting the cash flow. The first is what I'd call the direct impact and the second is what I'd call the indirect.

由於涉及到現金流，也有類似的思路。我們確實需要更多時間來解決這個問題。但我們對前景抱有風險，因為我們知道在今年剩餘時間內我們將需要一些現金。我想說有兩件事正在影響現金流。第一個是我所說的直接影響，第二個是我所說的間接影響。

On the direct side, it's really going to be things like accelerated capital; some inventory to get ready for these inspections; expenses associated with the work that we'll start to perform during the last quarter of the year; and then obviously, customer disruption. So more to go there. Indirectly, there's other work that this may disrupt in our business, and so we're contemplating some of that as we look at this year.

從直接的角度來看，這實際上是加速資本之類的事情；一些庫存，為這些檢查做好準備；與我們將在今年最後一個季度開始執行的工作相關的費用；然後很明顯，客戶中斷。所以更要去那裡。間接地，這可能會擾亂我們業務中的其他工作，因此我們今年正在考慮其中的一些工作。

I think it's a bit too early to kind of extrapolate that out to '24 and '25. Certainly, we'll come back over the next couple of months to provide a better update.

我認為現在推斷 24 和 25 年還為時過早。當然，我們會在接下來的幾個月內回來提供更好的更新。

And can you clarify if the powder metal supplier is internal to you?

您能否澄清粉末金屬供應商是否是您內部的？

It is -- Myles, this is Greg. Yes. So we've actually manufactured the powder at our facility in New York. That powder is then processed down at our Columbus, Georgia, forged into a number of different parts. Parts we're talking about here are turbine discs, but they are all internally manufactured with a proprietary powder.

這是——邁爾斯，這是格雷格。是的。所以我們實際上是在紐約的工廠生產這種粉末的。然後，這些粉末在佐治亞州哥倫布市加工，鍛造成許多不同的零件。我們在這裡討論的零件是渦輪盤，但它們都是用專有粉末在內部製造的。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

Question for you, Greg, right? And then kind of getting back to Rob's question. When you look at the litany of issues that have happened here with this engine, everything from section issues, manufacturing issues, do you have a cultural issue in your engineering workforce? Are people not talking to each other? And I mean, it also begs the question, how could you guys possibly not know about this at Paris when you did this major Investor event? So can you just give us all some insight into how people are communicating and what's going on in your engineering workforce?

格雷格，有個問題要問你，對吧？然後回到羅布的問題。當您查看該發動機發生的一連串問題時，從部件問題到製造問題，您的工程人員中是否存在文化問題？人們不互相交談嗎？我的意思是，這也引出了一個問題，當你們在巴黎舉辦這次重大投資者活動時，怎麼可能不知道這一點？那麼，您能否向我們大家介紹一下人們如何溝通以及您的工程人員的情況？

Yes. Ron, we should differentiate between the durability issues that Shane talked about and I call this the manufacturing quality issue. Let's just take a step back, right? This is an issue that we first uncovered back in 2020 when we had an incident with the V2500 turbine disc. As a result of that investigation, we determined at that point that we had some contamination in this powdered metal that we make. It occurred very, very rarely, but it did happen, and it actually resulted in the turbine disc failure on an airline.

是的。羅恩，我們應該區分謝恩談到的耐用性問題和我稱之為製造質量問題。讓我們退一步，對吧？這是我們在 2020 年 V2500 渦輪盤發生事故時首次發現的問題。根據調查結果，我們當時確定我們生產的粉末金屬存在一些污染。這種情況很少很少發生，但它確實發生了，而且實際上導致了一家航空公司的渦輪盤故障。

As a result of that, we went through and did 2 things. First of all, we went out and inspected the V2500 fleet. But we also went back and we took a look at the powdered metal process to determine how this contamination happened. Through a lot of work, through a lot of discovery, we figured out what the contaminants were. And by the end of 2021, about a year after that, we were able to manufacture powder that was, I would say, contaminant-free to the best of our ability.

結果，我們經歷並做了兩件事。首先，我們出去考察了V2500機隊。但我們也回去觀察了粉末金屬工藝，以確定這種污染是如何發生的。通過大量的工作、大量的發現，我們弄清楚了污染物是什麼。到 2021 年底，大約一年後，我們能夠盡最大努力生產出無污染的粉末。

At the same time, we knew that this contamination had occurred between late 2015 and late 2020, early 2021. So we knew we had a suspect population in the fleet. And we went out and like -- and so we started inspecting. We inspected the turbine discs as they were manufactured. We inspected turbine discs as they came back in, not just for the V but for the whole GTF fleet. In fact, the entire fleet of Pratt products that were manufactured during this time frame.

同時，我們知道這種污染髮生在 2015 年底到 2020 年底、2021 年初之間。因此我們知道船隊中存在可疑人員。我們出去了，然後我們開始檢查。我們在製造渦輪盤時對其進行了檢查。當渦輪盤返回時，我們對其進行了檢查，不僅是針對 V，而且是針對整個 GTF 車隊。事實上，整個普拉特產品系列都是在這段時間內生產的。

That -- those inspections, and there were over 3,000 of those inspections, yielded a very, very small fallout rate, less than 1%. So as Chris said, all of this data goes into our lifing model for the turbine disc. And based upon everything that we knew until very recently, we believe that the life of the turbine disc was such that we would see these discs in the shop and be able to inspect them before we ever had an issue.

這些檢查，以及超過 3,000 次的檢查，產生的影響率非常非常小，不到 1%。正如克里斯所說，所有這些數據都會進入我們的渦輪盤壽命模型。根據我們直到最近所知道的一切，我們相信渦輪盤的使用壽命足以讓我們在商店中看到這些盤並能夠在出現問題之前對其進行檢查。

Now as we again looked at the data again over the last couple of months, our safety risk assessment and our Safety Board went through their process of updating the data based on all the recent findings. And they said, you know what, we're not absolutely positive that the lifing model is accurate. And so we're going to take -- we want to take a look at these discs at a much accelerated basis.

現在，當我們再次查看過去幾個月的數據時，我們的安全風險評估和安全委員會根據所有最新發現更新了數據。他們說，你知道嗎，我們並不絕對肯定生活模型是否準確。因此，我們要以更快的速度審視這些光盤。

I would tell you, that is exactly the way the process is supposed to work. And so we're going to pull back 200 discs or 200 engines and look at the discs here in the next 90 days or so. In the next year, based upon those findings from the first 200, we think there's probably another 1,000 out there. So 1,200 out of a little over 3,000 engines out there have to be inspected. But this is not a -- I'm sorry, it's not a design issue. In fact, the engineers have been working on this issue hand in glove with the Safety Board and everybody else in manufacturing for the last 3 years.

我會告訴你，這正是該過程應該進行的方式。因此，我們將在接下來的 90 天左右的時間內收回 200 個光盤或 200 個引擎並查看這裡的光盤。明年，根據前 200 個的調查結果，我們認為可能還會有另外 1,000 個。因此，在 3,000 多台發動機中，有 1,200 台需要進行檢查。但這不是——對不起，這不是一個設計問題。事實上，在過去的三年裡，工程師們一直在與安全委員會和製造行業的其他所有人密切合作解決這個問題。

So I don't believe that we have an engineering issue. Obviously, this was a quality escape back from -- sometime between 2015 and 2020. And we are doing, I think, exactly the right thing, which is to bring these engines back, inspect them and ensure the safety of the fleet going forward. And I think, again, it's -- obviously, look, this engine, Ron, as you know, has been a challenge since we launched it back in 2015, and you guys can remember talking about [boat] rotors and all of the other issues that we had. But if you think about this engine operating at the temperatures that we do, it has been a continuous discovery. This is not one of them. This is simply a quality issue from a manufacturing problem.

所以我不認為我們存在工程問題。顯然，這是一次從 2015 年到 2020 年之間的高質量逃離。我認為，我們正在做完全正確的事情，那就是帶回這些發動機，檢查它們並確保船隊前進的安全。我再次認為，顯然，瞧，這款發動機，Ron，正如你們所知，自從我們在 2015 年推出它以來一直是一個挑戰，你們還記得談論[船]轉子和我們遇到的所有其他問題。但如果你考慮一下這台發動機在我們現有的溫度下運行，就會發現這是一個不斷的發現。這不是其中的一個。這純粹是製造問題造成的質量問題。

So I would say, look, we're on top of it. We've got this. It's going to be expensive. We're going to make the airlines whole as a result of the disruption we're going to cause them. And I think we're going to work ourselves through it. It's not an existential threat to RTX. It's not even an existential threat to Pratt. It is a problem, and we have them every day, and we'll solve it.

所以我想說，看，我們已經成功了。我們有這個。它會很貴。由於我們對航空公司造成的干擾，我們將讓航空公司變得完整。我認為我們將自己努力解決這個問題。這對 RTX 來說並不是生存威脅。這對普拉特來說甚至不是生存威脅。這是一個問題，我們每天都會遇到這些問題，我們會解決它。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Greg, thanks for that color there. I appreciate that. On the powdered metal, just specifically, did you -- when did you make the change? Was it kind of when you -- back in 2020 or '21? Just so we can have better clarity on the engines that are being delivered today.

格雷格，謝謝你的顏色。我很感激。在粉末金屬方面，具體來說，你什麼時候做出改變的？當你回到 2020 年或 21 世紀時，是這樣嗎？這樣我們就可以更好地了解今天交付的發動機。

Yes, so it was mid- to late 2021 where we changed all the processes in terms of the screening of the powdered metal to identify the contaminant and to eliminate the contaminant. Let's be clear. I mean this is a -- these contaminants are microscopic. And unfortunately, the original process, as we scaled up production for GTF, it got away from us a little bit, and we fixed it. But I would tell you, everything that we have shipped -- or almost everything we had shipped, I should say, in the last 3 years, we believe, is going to be just fine. That's why we're confident we can continue to support Airbus, continue to support customers with new deliveries as well as with spares this year and next.

是的，所以在 2021 年中後期，我們改變了粉末金屬篩選方面的所有流程，以識別污染物並消除污染物。讓我們說清楚。我的意思是，這些污染物是微觀的。不幸的是，當我們擴大 GTF 的生產規模時，原來的流程有點脫離了我們，但我們修復了它。但我想告訴你，我們相信，在過去三年裡，我們發貨的所有東西——或者說幾乎我們發貨的所有東西，都會很好。這就是為什麼我們有信心能夠繼續支持空客，繼續在今年和明年為客戶提供新的交付和備件支持。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Just on free cash flow, can we walk through the bridge, $1.2 billion of free cash flow usage in the first half, $4.3 billion expectation for the year? How do you think about the biggest drivers on a segment level basis in working capital? What are your expectations for factoring for the year, whether it's a benefit or a headwind? And should we think about $500 million of Pratt impact for 200 engines? Is that the rate we should assume going forward in future years? Or is that something you guys are working through?

僅就自由現金流而言，我們能否渡過難關？上半年自由現金流使用量為 12 億美元，全年預期為 43 億美元？您如何看待營運資本中細分市場層面的最大驅動因素？您對今年的保理業務有何期望，是有利還是不利？我們是否應該考慮為 200 台發動機帶來 5 億美元的 Pratt 影響？這是我們未來幾年應該假設的速度嗎？或者這是你們正在努力解決的問題？

Thanks, Sheila. This is Neil. I will take that one. First of all, on the $0.5 billion, I wouldn't extrapolate that. We need some more time, as I said earlier in the call. So let's just kind of focus on '23.

謝謝，希拉。這是尼爾.我會接受那個。首先，對於 5 億美元，我不會進行推斷。正如我之前在電話中所說，我們需要更多時間。所以讓我們把注意力集中在'23'上。

As I look at the walk from the first half to the second half, I'll also say that we ended the quarter with positive cash flow pretty much as expected. So the back half of the year is as we expected it to be. Obviously, there's some work to do there to generate the cash, but consistent with the profile we had last year.

當我審視從上半年到下半年的走勢時，我還會說，我們在本季度末的現金流量為正，幾乎符合預期。所以今年下半年的情況正如我們預期的那樣。顯然，需要做一些工作來產生現金，但與我們去年的情況一致。

The major pieces really are, I'd put it in 4 major buckets. Obviously, we have the rest of the year segment operating profit. It's a little less than $4 billion or so. We feel pretty good about that, consistent with the guide that we just provided and updated.

主要部分確實是，我會把它放在 4 個主要的桶中。顯然，我們有今年剩餘時間的部門營業利潤。這個數字略低於 40 億美元左右。我們對此感覺非常好，與我們剛剛提供和更新的指南一致。

We've got capital, second half capital, which is going to be a headwind of about $1.4 billion. And then we've got a working capital item that we have to kind of burn down. It's about $3.5 billion, about $2 billion of that is inventory. I'd say, split pretty evenly between Pratt and Collins. And then $1 billion of the net contract asset liabilities, which is principally in the Raytheon segment. And that lines up to milestone payments we expect to receive in the back half of the year as well as some international advances similar to what we had last year that would occur late in the fourth quarter.

我們有資本，下半年的資本，這將是約 14 億美元的逆風。然後我們就有了一個必須燒掉的營運資金項目。大約有 35 億美元，其中大約 20 億美元是庫存。我想說的是，普拉特和柯林斯之間的分配相當均勻。然後是 10 億美元的淨合同資產負債，主要屬於雷神公司部門。這與我們預計在今年下半年收到的里程碑付款以及與去年第四季度末發生的類似的一些國際預付款相符。

The rest of the puts and takes are really the things we've talked about: pension, taxes, interest and other. The net of that is about $0.5 billion of an outflow in the second half. So again, same profile we were staring at 35, 45 days ago. We've layered in the Pratt impact. I think that mostly will impact working capital. It may have some CapEx as well.

其餘的看跌期權和看跌期權實際上是我們已經討論過的內容：養老金、稅收、利息和其他。下半年的淨流出約為 5 億美元。再說一遍，我們在 35、45 天前看到的資料是一樣的。我們對普拉特的影響進行了分層。我認為這主要會影響營運資金。它也可能有一些資本支出。

Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格（Kristine Liwag）。

For the Pratt issue, it seems like the free cash flow impact in 2024, 2025 is still a little bit unclear. How should we think about how this affects your 2025 free cash flow outlook of $9 billion? And is that still the number you're reiterating? Or should we think about potential downside risks?

對於普拉特問題，2024年、2025年的自由現金流影響似乎仍然有點不清楚。我們應該如何思考這將如何影響您 2025 年 90 億美元的自由現金流前景？這仍然是您重申的數字嗎？或者我們應該考慮潛在的下行風險嗎？

Kristine, I'll take that to start. I mean, clearly, all things equal, the issue we just talked about is going to put some pressure on Pratt margins. It would put pressure on cash. I think it's too early to put a number on that. We're going to need some time to go through and understand what's the work scope, how does that intersect with already planned work scope and the profile of those shop visits. And of course, we're always focused on trying to drive more out of our businesses, and we would do the same here. So I think I'll leave it at that. We will come back to you over the next couple of months with more detail. Greg?

克里斯汀，我就從這個開始吧。我的意思是，顯然，在所有條件相同的情況下，我們剛才討論的問題將對普瑞特的利潤率造成一些壓力。這會給現金帶來壓力。我認為現在給出這個數字還為時過早。我們需要一些時間來仔細研究並了解工作範圍是什麼，它與已經計劃的工作範圍以及這些車間訪問的概況有何交叉。當然，我們始終專注於努力從我們的業務中獲得更多收益，我們也會在這裡做同樣的事情。所以我想我就這樣吧。我們將在接下來的幾個月內向您提供更多詳細信息。格雷格？

Yes. Just maybe the way to think about this is, so we're going to pull 200 engines back this year. A bunch of those are going to come back anyways. And then next year is another 1,000, and a bunch of those are already planned. Having said that, though, we know -- right now, we've got 13 MRO facilities. We're going to have to go -- our plan was to go to 19. We're going to have to accelerate some of the tooling, and that's contemplated in this cash. We're going to have to dedicate some spares to a rotable pool of engines to support some customers.

是的。也許思考這個問題的方式是，今年我們將撤回 200 台發動機。無論如何，其中很多人都會回來。明年還會有 1,000 個，其中很多已經在計劃中。儘管如此，我們知道，目前我們擁有 13 個 MRO 設施。我們將不得不去——我們的計劃是去19。我們將不得不加速一些工具的開發，這在這筆現金中得到了考慮。我們將不得不將一些備件專用於可輪換的發動機池來支持某些客戶。

Those things, again, will be behind us, I would say, probably by the middle of next year in terms of the cash outflows associated with that. The big question in everybody's mind will be, what are we going to have to do in terms of compensation to the airlines. We have contracts, special support agreements that are out there. So we'll work through that, but it's going to take time.

我想說，就與此相關的現金流出而言，這些事情可能會在明年年中成為過去。每個人心中的一個大問題是，我們必須向航空公司提供哪些補償。我們有合同和特殊支持協議。所以我們會解決這個問題，但這需要時間。

I guess the main point, though, is by the end of next year, this inspection program will be almost all complete. And the 2025 outlook really shouldn't be impacted other than, as Neil said, potential margin impact as some of these costs roll through the GTF support contracts. But again, it's -- we've got 2 years to work through that, and we will figure that out. But in terms of the cash, really probably not a big difference as you get out to 2025.

不過，我想重點是到明年年底，該檢查計劃將幾乎全部完成。正如 Neil 所說，除了潛在的利潤影響之外，2025 年的前景確實不應該受到影響，因為其中一些成本通過 GTF 支持合同滾動。但同樣，我們有兩年的時間來解決這個問題，我們會解決這個問題。但就現金而言，到 2025 年，實際上可能不會有太大差異。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wanted to ask a question about the Raytheon business. It looks like -- and I want to make sure I've got the right recast numbers here, but it looks like first half to second half, kind of -- only kind of a modest sales increase expected but fairly healthy profit increase to get to the $150 million of profit growth at midpoint. And so I guess, if you could talk a little bit about what gives you confidence in that, especially in light of the option exercise you mentioned? And then also, I thought there was pretty good top line momentum in RMD in the quarter, and the degree to which you do or don't expect that to continue in the second half.

我想問一個關於雷神公司業務的問題。看起來——我想確保我在這裡得到了正確的重鑄數字，但看起來上半年到下半年，有點——只是預期的適度銷售增長，但相當健康的利潤增長，以達到中點 1.5 億美元的利潤增長。所以我想，您能否談談是什麼讓您對此充滿信心，特別是考慮到您提到的期權練習？另外，我認為本季度 RMD 的營收勢頭相當不錯，以及您預計或預計下半年這種勢頭會持續到什麼程度。

Seth, this is Chris. When you look at RMD, we'll break it down into the pieces of the new Raytheon segment. When you look at RMD, we start to see some positive momentum in particular around material growth, right? About 14% year-over-year material growth. The kit fill rates that we've talked about for some time that were hovering in those mid- to low 50s were up into the mid-70s. So we're starting to see material flow, which is a big part of the continued productivity story at RMD.

賽斯，這是克里斯。當您查看 RMD 時，我們會將其分解為新的雷神部分的各個部分。當你觀察 RMD 時，我們開始看到一些積極的勢頭，特別是在材料增長方面，對嗎？同比材料增長約 14%。我們已經討論了一段時間的套件填充率一直徘徊在 50 年代中低水平，但現在已經上升到 70 年代中期。因此，我們開始看到物料流，這是 RMD 持續生產力故事的重要組成部分。

At RIS, I would say, again, less material intensive, but very good material flow in kit fill rates. The issue that we're continuing to grapple with there are the fixed-price development contracts that we've got. We've mentioned before, we've got a handful of fixed-price development contracts that are technologically very complex, and we continue to work our way through. We believe we'll make significant progress on those here in 2023 and into early 2024. But overall, again, seeing positive momentum on the productivity front at Raytheon.

在 RIS，我想說的是，材料密集度較低，但套件填充率的材料流動非常好。我們正在繼續解決的問題是我們已經獲得的固定價格開發合同。我們之前提到過，我們已經獲得了一些技術上非常複雜的固定價格開發合同，我們將繼續努力解決這些問題。我們相信，到 2023 年和 2024 年初，我們將在這些方面取得重大進展。但總體而言，雷神公司在生產力方面再次出現積極勢頭。

Thanks, Chris. Let me add a couple of comments here, too, regarding productivity. I think the first half of the year was encouraging in some regards. We turned the corner a bit I think on a year-over-year basis. For the first half of the new combined business, we're essentially flat year-over-year. We are expecting about $100 million of productivity step up in the second half of the year. Think about that as -- I'm sorry, on a full year basis, so about $75 million or so in the second half of the year. And the material receipts is what makes us have the confidence around that path to the second half of the year.

謝謝，克里斯。讓我在這裡也添加一些關於生產力的評論。我認為今年上半年在某些方面令人鼓舞。我認為與去年同期相比，我們已經扭轉了一些局面。對於新合併業務的上半年，我們基本上與去年同期持平。我們預計下半年生產力將提高約 1 億美元。很抱歉，以全年為基礎，下半年大約有 7500 萬美元左右。物質收入讓我們對下半年的發展充滿信心。

The other encouraging point I would say is, particularly at the missile business, we saw the sales tick up on that material receipt, and the mix of that material had a good drop-through on it. So we're starting to see the transition of the mix of production from development. We talked about 2023 being the low point.

我要說的另一個令人鼓舞的點是，特別是在導彈業務方面，我們看到該材料收據的銷售額有所上升，並且該材料的組合有很好的下降。因此，我們開始看到生產組合從開發的轉變。我們談到 2023 年是最低點。

So that's how we've calibrated this into this revised outlook. We've also taken into account the first half performance as we've readjusted this realignment in the second half of the year.

這就是我們如何將其調整為修訂後的前景的方式。我們還考慮了上半年的表現，因為我們在下半年重新調整了這一調整。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯·赫伯特。

Yes, maybe Chris or Neil, if you can dig a little bit further into what you bucketed as the other disruptions, as we think about maybe an incremental diversion of engines into the spare pool and how we think about stresses on the capacity of the network as you deal with not only the 200 this year, but the 1,000 next year. And within that other bucket, where do you see sort of the primary risks or maybe the greatest unknowns as you think about the potential eventual impact on cash?

是的，也許是克里斯或尼爾，如果你能更深入地研究一下你所說的其他中斷，因為我們考慮可能將引擎增量轉移到備用池中，以及當你不僅處理今年的 200 個，而且處理明年的 1,000 個時，我們如何考慮網絡容量的壓力。在另一個方面，當您考慮對現金的潛在最終影響時，您認為主要風險或最大的未知因素在哪裡？

Yes. Yes, Ken. Thanks. This is Chris. I'll start it. As we kind of noted up front, there are a number of variables that are going into the fleet impact, both this year and next. Work scope, making sure we define that, the work scope for these inspections. The turnaround time, trying to get the turnaround time and do this work as quickly and efficiently as possible, making it into a project visit to the extent that we can. And then optimizing the network capacity. You just heard Greg say we've got 13 shops across our network today. We're adding more shops.

是的。是的，肯。謝謝。這是克里斯。我來開始吧。正如我們之前指出的，今年和明年都有許多變量會影響機隊。工作範圍，確保我們定義這些檢查的工作範圍。周轉時間，試圖獲得周轉時間並儘可能快速有效地完成這項工作，盡可能將其納入項目訪問。然後優化網絡容量。您剛剛聽到 Greg 說今天我們的網絡中有 13 家商店。我們正在增加更多商店。

But how do we go and optimize that network because, obviously, we've got whipped today, as you know, as we're trying to increase output on the GTF MRO. We've got to make sure that we're inducting the right engines at the right time and making sure that we can do this, I'll call it, new work -- new inspection work separate and apart to the extent that we can from the ongoing MRO work. So all of that, I'll call it optimization formula, is still being developed, and we're going to need a little bit more time on that.

但是我們如何去優化該網絡，因為很明顯，正如您所知，我們今天受到了打擊，因為我們正在努力增加 GTF MRO 的產量。我們必須確保在正確的時間引入正確的發動機，並確保我們能夠做到這一點，我稱之為新工作——新的檢查工作與正在進行的 MRO 工作分開。所以所有這些，我稱之為優化公式，仍在開發中，我們需要更多的時間。

In terms of the other disruptions, Greg mentioned some of them. But again, we're going to be looking at our network where all of our work is done to try to minimize any disruption on other program -- more mature programs perhaps that are going through the MRO cycle. Again, how do we make sure that those continue to flow uninterrupted while we do this work. Those are the types of things we're continuing to work through.

就其他干擾而言，格雷格提到了其中一些。但我們將再次關注我們的網絡，我們所有的工作都是為了盡量減少對其他項目的干擾——更成熟的項目可能正在經歷 MRO 週期。再說一次，我們如何確保在我們開展這項工作時這些內容繼續不間斷地流動。這些都是我們正在繼續努力解決的問題。

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的傑森·古爾斯基。

You talked a little bit about the capacity in MRO. Can you talk a little bit about the capacity for the part itself, the internal manufacturing capability that you have there? And whether this is another potential constraint for you on the GTF?

您談到了 MRO 的能力。您能談談零件本身的能力，即您那裡的內部製造能力嗎？這是否是您對 GTF 的另一個潛在限制？

Yes. Yes, thanks, Jason. This is Chris. Greg mentioned upfront that we've had this enhanced inspection technique in place for some time and been doing these inspections. On the V2500 in particular, we've had -- I think, Greg, you said almost 3,000 of those inspections. I will tell you that the fallout rate from that on this part has been very, very low. And so at this particular time, Jason, we don't believe that the HPT will be the limiting factor, if you will, in terms of the turnaround time and our ability to work through this as quickly and efficiently as possible.

是的。是的，謝謝，傑森。這是克里斯。格雷格預先提到，我們採用這種增強的檢查技術已經有一段時間了，並且一直在進行這些檢查。特別是在 V2500 上，我們已經進行了——我想，Greg，你說過大約 3,000 次這樣的檢查。我會告訴你，這部分的後果率非常非常低。因此，在這個特定的時間，傑森，我們不認為 HPT 會成為限制因素（如果您願意的話），就周轉時間以及我們盡快有效地解決此問題的能力而言。

And I mean, if you were to go and to do one of these inspections today, do you have a sense of -- are we talking about weeks or days or months to do this inspection?

我的意思是，如果你今天要去進行其中一項檢查，你是否有一種感覺——我們是在談論幾週、幾天還是幾個月來進行這項檢查？

Yes. So we're talking HPT disks, Jason, and so that particular module, you can't necessarily do that on wing. You've got to take the engine off wing. You've got to disassemble the engine to get to that particular area. Unfortunately, based on the geometry and location of the part, you do have to remove the part to do this, enhance inspection capability, reassemble and then get it back out to the fleet. So I think I mentioned before, we're trying to turn this into, as best we can, what we would call a project visit, not a full interval shop visit, but that work is still underway. Obviously, making sure the wing-to-wing turnaround time is as short as possible and doing what we need to do is an important element of understanding the fleet impact and what we need to do from a network perspective.

是的。所以我們談論的是 HPT 磁盤，Jason，所以這個特定的模塊，你不一定能在機翼上做到這一點。你必須把發動機從機翼上取下來。你必須拆卸引擎才能到達那個特定區域。不幸的是，根據零件的幾何形狀和位置，您必須拆卸零件才能執行此操作，增強檢查能力，重新組裝，然後將其放回車隊。所以我想我之前提到過，我們正在盡力將其轉變為我們所說的項目訪問，而不是完整的間隔商店訪問，但這項工作仍在進行中。顯然，確保機翼之間的周轉時間盡可能短並做我們需要做的事情是從網絡角度理解機隊影響和我們需要做的事情的重要因素。

And is there any silver lining to this at all in the sense that you mentioned optimization on how you're going to deal with these visits and these inspections. Is there an opportunity here to get through some of this durability swap outs that you need to do anyway, so that you can kind of kill 2 birds with 1 stone, so to speak, as you do these inspections?

從您提到的如何處理這些訪問和檢查的優化角度來看，這是否有一線希望？這裡是否有機會完成您無論如何都需要做的一些耐久性交換，以便您可以用 1 塊石頭殺死 2 隻鳥，可以這麼說，當您進行這些檢查時？

Yes. So when you think about that 2024 shop visit population, we're going to, again, take a look at the utilization on those, the cycle time on those engines and in working with our customers, making a decision, a mutual decision, on is this the right candidate for a project visit? Or should that work scope increase to take on additional work, which will benefit the time on wing and the interval of that engine moving forward several years. That is a decision, that is a conversation that we will have once we better understand again how many of these visits are truly incremental in 2024 and then the related fleet impacts. But that -- as you know, Jason, that is a part of the equation.

是的。因此，當您考慮 2024 年商店參觀人數時，我們將再次查看這些引擎的利用率、這些發動機的循環時間，並與我們的客戶合作，做出共同決定，這是否是項目參觀的正確候選者？或者是否應該擴大工作範圍以承擔額外的工作，這將有利於機翼時間和該發動機向前推進幾年的間隔。這是一個決定，也是一個對話，一旦我們更好地了解 2024 年有多少訪問量是真正增量的，以及相關機隊的影響，我們就會進行對話。但是，正如你所知，傑森，這是等式的一部分。

And then lastly, do you think you're going to learn enough by the time we have the October earnings call to provide us a little bit more clarity on things? Or do you think this is going to be a discovery process that takes us out a number of months until the end of the year?

最後，您認為當我們召開 10 月份的財報電話會議時，您是否能學到足夠的知識，讓我們對事情有更清晰的了解？或者你認為這將是一個發現過程，需要我們花幾個月的時間直到年底？

Jason, we're discovering something new every day here. So I think all I would tell you is that over the next, I would say, 6 weeks as we finalize the inspection protocols, as we finalize the turn times and work with our customers, keep in mind, we're trying to get the first 200 engines back by the middle of September. So I think by the middle of September, we'll have a much better feel for what is involved here, and we'll get -- have an opportunity to update everybody around that time.

傑森，我們在這裡每天都會發現新的東西。所以我想我要告訴你們的是，在接下來的 6 週內，當我們最終確定檢查協議、確定周轉時間並與客戶合作時，請記住，我們正努力在 9 月中旬之前恢復首批 200 台發動機。所以我認為到九月中旬，我們將對這裡所涉及的內容有更好的感覺，並且我們將有機會在那時向每個人通報最新情況。

I think by the time we get to October, obviously, we'll know even more as we go through some of the initial inspections. So this is a learning process. We understand what it takes to inspect. We understand what it takes in terms of the inductions and the processes. And unless there is some surprise, I think we can have this pretty well bounded in terms of what the cost impact is, in terms of what the cash flow impact is. And so by the time we get to third quarter call, again, obviously, we'll have a hell of a lot more knowledge than we do sitting here today.

我認為到十月份時，顯然，我們在進行一些初步檢查時會了解更多信息。所以這是一個學習的過程。我們了解檢查需要什麼。我們了解歸納和過程需要什麼。除非有什麼意外，我認為我們可以在成本影響和現金流影響方面得到很好的限制。因此，當我們再次召開第三季度電話會議時，顯然，我們將比今天坐在這裡擁有更多的知識。

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

So by my calculations, you delivered something like 1,600, 1,700 GTFs by the middle of '21. So how do we get to 1,200 engines? I mean are we sure that's the number? Could it be a larger number? And is this just related to the PW1000? Or does it also impact the Vs?

根據我的計算，到 21 年中期，你們交付了大約 1,600、1,700 個 GTF。那麼我們如何獲得 1,200 個引擎呢？我的意思是我們確定是這個數字嗎？可以是一個更大的數字嗎？這只是與 PW1000 有關嗎？還是說它也會影響Vs？

Yes. So let me start maybe with the second part first, Cai. Our current assessment is that we don't expect the same type of impact on the V2500. It has had an enhanced inspection fleet plan and management plan in place for some time. And as I noted, and as Greg noted, we've completed a significant number of those inspections thus far and feel comfortable that this can be managed at this point within the existing shop visit forecast. We're going to -- as Greg noted, we're still going through that analysis. So it will take us into August to finalize that, but that's our current expectation.

是的。那麼讓我先從第二部分開始吧，蔡。我們目前的評估是，我們預計 V2500 不會受到同樣類型的影響。一段時間以來，它已經制定了強化檢查車隊計劃和管理計劃。正如我所指出的，正如格雷格所指出的，到目前為止，我們已經完成了大量的檢查，並且感到放心，這可以在現有的商店訪問預測範圍內進行管理。正如格雷格指出的那樣，我們仍在進行該分析。因此，我們需要到八月份才能最終確定，但這是我們目前的期望。

Same on the other neo applications. There are different characteristics and attributes on those engines, whether it be stress on the part, whether it be thrust that we believe differentiates it from the 1100 and such. Our current assessment is those can be managed within the existing shop visit forecast that we have for 2024.

其他 neo 應用程序也是如此。這些發動機有不同的特性和屬性，無論是零件上的壓力，還是我們認為與 1100 等不同的推力。我們目前的評估是，這些可以在我們現有的 2024 年商店訪問預測範圍內進行管理。

In terms of the population, Cai, you heard Greg talk about when we bounded the material -- the potentially contaminated material. We put in place the enhanced processes for powdered metal at that time and also put in the enhanced inspection techniques that we've talked about. Many of the engines that have come off -- all the engines that have come off since that time have gone through this inspection and have been a part of what we would call this better powder processing regime. And so ultimately, we will inspect parts when they come in for their normal shop visit down the line, Cai. As you know, these engines will come back in for shop visits, and we will inspect this, among other things, during that time.

就人口而言，蔡，你聽到格雷格談到我們限製材料時——潛在污染的材料。當時我們採用了粉末金屬的增強工藝，並且還採用了我們已經討論過的增強檢測技術。許多已經脫落的發動機——從那時起所有脫落的發動機都經過了這次檢查，並且成為我們所說的更好的粉末加工製度的一部分。因此，最終，當零件正常到店參觀時，我們將對其進行檢查，蔡。如您所知，這些發動機將返回進行車間檢查，在此期間我們將對此進行檢查。

What we're talking about right now are those that we need to accelerate the shop visit for. And again, that's based on all the variables that we talked about. So we feel confident that the -- as part of the Safety Management Board that Pratt has, that we've got the right population and the right plan in place.

我們現在討論的是那些我們需要加快商店訪問速度的內容。再說一遍，這是基於我們討論的所有變量。因此，我們相信，作為普拉特安全管理委員會的一部分，我們擁有合適的人員和適當的計劃。

Just one quick follow-on. We've hit on all the negatives, but you just got this announcement of this $2.9 billion potential AMRAAM order from Germany. Can you give us some color on your munitions outlook, I mean, in the out years? Is that substantially better?

只是一個快速的後續。我們已經討論了所有負面因素，但您剛剛收到了來自德國的價值 29 億美元的 AMRAAM 潛在訂單的消息。您能給我們介紹一下您對未來幾年的彈藥前景嗎？是不是好很多了？

Yes, Cai, it's nice to talk about something else than GTF. But yes, look, this AMRAAM order is an order that will be for both Germany, really for all of the NATO countries, that will also benefit Ukraine. And I would tell you that is on top of what we expect to see as a relatively large order for GEM-T missiles associated with the Patriot Air Defense System. We have orders there from Saudi Arabia. We have orders coming from NATO. I think in the back half of the year, you're going to see significant -- we're planning significant order intake on both AMRAAM and GEM-T as well as, of course, Excalibur. We got this -- Neil has mentioned, we got the Javelin order. We had the Stinger order already. Those orders will continue to grow.

是的，蔡，很高興談論 GTF 之外的其他事情。但是，是的，你看，這項 AMRAAM 訂單是一項對德國、實際上對所有北約國家都有利的命令，這也將使烏克蘭受益。我想告訴你的是，這是我們預計與愛國者防空系統相關的 GEM-T 導彈的相對較大訂單的基礎。我們有來自沙特阿拉伯的訂單。我們有來自北約的訂單。我認為在今年下半年，你會看到重大的——我們計劃在 AMRAAM 和 GEM-T 以及 Excalibur 上接收大量訂單。我們收到了——尼爾提到過，我們收到了標槍訂單。我們已經收到了 Stinger 訂單。這些訂單將繼續增長。

I'll tell you right now, we still have only seen $2 billion of orders associated specifically with Ukraine replenishment. We think there's probably another $2.5 billion coming in the next 12 months associated with just the Ukraine replenishment on top of the GEM-T. And the GEM-Ts again, they'll go to Germany, they'll go to Poland, they'll go to all 18 of those countries that are currently operating Patriot. So I think that's a very positive sign, and that's why we're so bullish on the Defense outlook for the next couple of years.

我現在就告訴你，我們仍然只看到了專門與烏克蘭補給相關的 20 億美元訂單。我們認為，在未來 12 個月內，除了 GEM-T 之外，可能還會有 25 億美元與烏克蘭增資相關。 GEM-T 再次，他們將前往德國，他們將前往波蘭，他們將前往目前正在運營愛國者的所有 18 個國家。所以我認為這是一個非常積極的跡象，這就是為什麼我們如此看好未來幾年的國防前景。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

Sorry, back to the GTF. Sorry. I just wanted to ask you about how closely coordinated you are at this point with the regulatory bodies with regard to this? And have they kind of signed off on your plan? Or is there any risk here of potentially the population or the timeline of these inspections getting accelerated?

抱歉，回到 GTF。對不起。我只是想問一下你們目前在這方面與監管機構的協調程度如何？他們批准了你的計劃嗎？或者是否存在潛在的人口風險或這些檢查的時間表加快的風險？

Yes. Thanks, David. This is Chris. I would say, all of this has been very closely coordinated with the FAA. I think you heard me upfront talk about that this will come in the form of a service bulletin that Pratt will publish and then likely an AD that the FAA will distribute. But our safety management process, whether it be through events that happen in the field, things that we find through our continuous surveillance process or recommendations and assessment like this, are always very closely coordinated with the FAA and then, of course, with the other international regulatory bodies as well. FAA, of course, is where we start. But we, of course, continue to coordinate with the FAA and those other international bodies. But bottom line, very closely coordinated with them.

是的。謝謝，大衛。這是克里斯。我想說，所有這一切都與美國聯邦航空局密切協調。我想你聽到我預先談論過，這將以普拉特將發布的服務公告的形式出現，然後美國聯邦航空局可能會分發廣告。但我們的安全管理流程，無論是通過現場發生的事件，還是通過持續的監督流程發現的問題，還是像這樣的建議和評估，總是與美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）密切協調，當然也與其他國際監管機構密切協調。當然，美國聯邦航空局 (FAA) 是我們的起點。但我們當然會繼續與美國聯邦航空局和其他國際機構進行協調。但最重要的是，與他們密切配合。

Okay. And a quick follow-up. You keep mentioning fallout rate, low fallout rate. I assume that is where you actually have to replace the high-pressure turbine disc. What exactly have you assumed in terms of a fallout rate? And I guess, given it sounds like the inspection here is pretty involved, how much more involved would it be and costly to be to actually replace the high-pressure turbine blades versus just the inspection -- or disc, sorry.

好的。并快速跟進。你一直提到輻射率，低輻射率。我認為這就是您實際上必須更換高壓渦輪盤的地方。您對後果率到底有何假設？我想，考慮到這裡的檢查聽起來相當複雜，與僅檢查或更換盤相比，實際更換高壓渦輪葉片的複雜性和成本要高得多。

Yes. So you're absolutely right. That's what fallout rate means, those that we inspect and decide need to be removed and replaced. Again, our experience has been that's been very, very low. If we -- if, of course, we had to replace the turbine discs, then we factor that into the turnaround time. And that will, of course, potentially add some time to the process. But as of now, again, David, our assumption, and we're continuing to work through that and through the month of August here, but our assumption, based on everything that we've seen thus far, is that the fallout rate will be very low, and that's what's embedded in our assumptions today.

是的。所以你是完全正確的。這就是沉降率的含義，我們檢查並決定需要拆除和更換的那些。再說一遍，我們的經驗是非常非常低的。如果我們——當然，如果我們必須更換渦輪盤，那麼我們會將其納入周轉時間。當然，這可能會增加這個過程的時間。但到目前為止，大衛，我們的假設，我們正在繼續努力解決這個問題，並持續到八月份，但根據我們迄今為止所看到的一切，我們的假設是，後果率將非常低，這就是我們今天的假設中所包含的內容。

Yes. David, keep in mind, in order to do the inspection, and as Chris said, we literally have to pull the high-pressure turbine disc off of the engine and put it through this inspection protocol. Now whether we put that disc back on or a brand new one, it's not a significant impact. It is -- again, with a very, very low expected fallout ratio, I wouldn't -- of all the things I worry about, that would be low on the list. We have plenty of capacity for turbine disc out of Columbus, especially given the what we expect to be a very small number of replacements. So that is, I would say, the most manageable portion of this.

是的。大衛，請記住，為了進行檢查，正如克里斯所說，我們實際上必須將高壓渦輪盤從發動機上拉下來，並通過此檢查協議。現在，無論我們放回該光盤還是一張全新的光盤，都不會產生重大影響。再說一次，我不會——在我擔心的所有事情中，它的預期影響率非常非常低，它會排在列表的後面。我們在哥倫布擁有充足的渦輪盤產能，特別是考慮到我們預計更換數量非常少。所以，我想說，這是其中最容易管理的部分。

Our final question will come from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題將來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak）。

On the powdered metal, are you able to bound at this point, whether you expect the free cash impact next year to be larger or smaller than this year? And then also following up on the Raytheon defense margins, can you just spend another minute on the fixed price development programs you're citing? Which ones are they? When do they move out of the development phase? And how do they play into the multiyear margin expansion you're expecting?

關於粉末金屬，您現在是否能夠確定明年的自由現金影響會比今年更大還是更小？然後，還要跟進雷神公司的國防利潤，您能否再花一分鐘時間討論您所引用的固定價格開發計劃？他們是哪些？他們什麼時候退出開發階段？它們如何影響您預期的多年利潤擴張？

Sure. Yes. First of all, on the free cash flow, again, Noah, I hate to keep saying this, but we really need a little bit more time to put a finer point on our estimates, and we will come back to you on that part as it relates to '24 and beyond. But think we've talked at length about what the considerations are there and how we'll be thinking about that. And that there is a possibility that some of these shop visits are already planned, and there'll be effects that counterbalance some of this in the out year. So more to come on that front.

當然。是的。首先，關於自由現金流，諾亞，我不想一直這麼說，但我們確實需要更多的時間來對我們的估計進行更精確的闡述，我們將在這方面與您討論，因為它與 24 世紀及以後相關。但想一想，我們已經詳細討論了其中的考慮因素以及我們將如何考慮這一點。而且其中一些商店參觀可能已經計劃好了，並且在一年內會產生抵消其中一些影響的效果。因此，這方面還有更多內容。

On the defense margins, you'll recall back in Paris, I talked about $40 million to $50 million of headwinds we expected from the RI&S business, and that happened just as we expected as we closed out the quarter. It's literally a few contracts. I'd say most of them are classified, so hard to get into the names.

在國防邊際方面，您可能還記得在巴黎時，我談到了我們預計 RI&S 業務將面臨 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元的阻力，而這正如我們在本季度結束時所預期的那樣發生了。這實際上就是幾份合同。我想說其中大多數都是機密，因此很難了解名稱。

The duration, I'd say the most -- the period of time that we're looking at, probably 18, 24 months before those programs are fully behind us. We're in the test phase. We're obviously learning through that phase. But I think we have a little bit longer to go here. I think we've got it calibrated in the second half of our year outlook, but all the right resources are on it. And like I said, absent that, we are seeing productivity turn in the rest of the business. So it really is a focused set of programs that we're dealing with.

我最想說的是持續時間——我們正在考慮的時間段，可能是 18、24 個月，然後這些計劃就完全過去了。我們正處於測試階段。顯然我們正在這個階段中學習。但我認為我們還有一段時間才能到達這裡。我認為我們已經在下半年的展望中對其進行了校準，但所有合適的資源都在其中。正如我所說，如果沒有這一點，我們會看到其他業務部門的生產力有所提高。因此，這確實是我們正在處理的一組重點項目。

Okay. Thanks, everybody, for listening in. Just to put all this in perspective, I think you need to keep in mind, we have very strong franchises between Collins, Raytheon and Pratt & Whitney and the $185 billion of backlog. I know this GTF issue, this quality issue, is a bit of a surprise. We have been working it for the last, I would say, 10 days or so. We will know a lot more in the next 6 weeks. And as the information becomes available, we will, of course, be sharing it with investors. But again, keep in mind, this is a small piece of what is a great franchise across RTX.

好的。謝謝大家傾聽。為了正確看待這一切，我認為你們需要記住，我們在柯林斯、雷神和普惠公司之間擁有非常強大的特許經營權，並且積壓了 1,850 億美元。我知道這個 GTF 問題，這個質量問題，有點令人驚訝。我想說，我們已經為此工作了 10 天左右。在接下來的 6 週內，我們將了解更多信息。隨著信息的出現，我們當然會與投資者分享。但再次請記住，這只是 RTX 偉大系列的一小部分。

Having said that, Jennifer and her team are obviously going to be available the next couple of days to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you all for listening and take care. Bye-bye.

話雖如此，詹妮弗和她的團隊顯然將在接下來的幾天內回答您的任何後續問題。感謝大家的聆聽和照顧。再見。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。