雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到雷神科技公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。我叫 Latif，今天我將擔任您的接線員。提醒一下，正在錄製此會議以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.

今天接聽電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官 Greg Hayes； Chris Calio，首席運營官；尼爾·米奇爾，首席財務官；和投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Reed。此電話會議將在互聯網上進行現場直播，並且可以從 Raytheon Technologies 的網站 www.rtx.com 下載演示文稿。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustment and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談到持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和淨非經常性和/或管理層通常稱為其他重要項目的重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流量預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。

Raytheon Technologies' SEC filings, including its Form 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

Raytheon Technologies 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括其 8-K 表、10-Q 表和 10-K 表，詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。 （操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給海耶斯先生。

Thank you, Latif, and good morning, everyone. I hope you've all had a chance to review our press release this morning.

謝謝 Latif，大家早上好。我希望你們今天早上都有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿。

Before we get into the highlights, I'd first like to welcome Chris Calio to the call. As you know, Chris has been our Chief Operating Officer for the last year, has been responsible for our business units as well as our operations, engineering and digital functions. Effective March 1, Chris has been elected to the position of President and Chief Operating Officer of RTX. Chris has been instrumental over this past year in driving our focus on operational excellence and delivering for our customers in a very challenging environment. So welcome, Chris.

在我們進入重點之前，我首先要歡迎 Chris Calio 加入電話會議。如您所知，克里斯在去年擔任我們的首席運營官，負責我們的業務部門以及我們的運營、工程和數字功能。自 3 月 1 日起，Chris 當選為 RTX 總裁兼首席運營官。在過去的一年裡，克里斯在推動我們專注於卓越運營並在極具挑戰性的環境中為我們的客戶提供服務方面發揮了重要作用。非常歡迎，克里斯。

Okay. Let's go to the webcast slide for Slide 2. We'll talk about some of the highlights for 2022. I don't have to tell anybody that '22 was an incredibly dynamic year. And I'm pleased to say that we were able to achieve, despite facing a number of significant challenges, including transitioning out of Russia, managing record levels of inflation as well as supply chain and labor constraints.

好的。讓我們轉到幻燈片 2 的網絡直播幻燈片。我們將討論 2022 年的一些亮點。我不必告訴任何人 22 年是充滿活力的一年。我很高興地說，儘管面臨許多重大挑戰，包括從俄羅斯過渡、管理創紀錄的通貨膨脹水平以及供應鍊和勞動力限制，但我們能夠實現這一目標。

With all that as a backdrop, we still delivered $67.1 billion in sales for the full year, which was up 6% organically and adjusted EPS of $4.78, which was up 12% year-over-year. We also returned almost $6 billion of capital to shareowners, which included $2.8 billion of share repurchases. And more importantly, even with the $1.6 billion headwind from the R&D tax legislation, we generated $4.9 billion in free cash flow, which exceeded our expectations. At the same time, we continue to position the business for sustained profitable growth.

在此背景下，我們全年的銷售額仍為 671 億美元，有機增長 6%，調整後每股收益為 4.78 美元，同比增長 12%。我們還向股東返還了近 60 億美元的資本，其中包括 28 億美元的股票回購。更重要的是，即使研發稅收立法帶來 16 億美元的逆風，我們仍產生了 49 億美元的自由現金流，這超出了我們的預期。與此同時，我們繼續將業務定位為持續盈利增長。

In 2022, we captured $86 billion in new bookings, resulting in backlog growth of 12%, a book-to-bill of 1.28 and a near record backlog at the end of the year of $175 billion. Additionally, we were granted over 2,600 patents last year. This places us in the top 10 of companies in the United States for the second consecutive year. While we invested $9 billion in R&D and CapEx, this allowed us to bring new technologies to our market and drive further automation and digitization through each phase of our product lifestyle from design, through development, through manufacturing and product sustainment.

2022 年，我們獲得了 860 億美元的新訂單，導致積壓訂單增長 12%，訂單出貨比為 1.28，年底積壓訂單接近創紀錄的 1750 億美元。此外，我們去年獲得了 2,600 多項專利。這使我們連續第二年躋身美國公司前 10 名。雖然我們在研發和資本支出方面投資了 90 億美元，但這使我們能夠將新技術推向市場，並在我們產品生活方式的每個階段（從設計、開發、製造和產品維護）推動進一步的自動化和數字化。

Our investment in recent awards supports our mission to create a safer and more connected world, which was especially true in 2022. Our products and technologies have been instrumental in helping the people of Ukraine defend itself. From the Stinger, Javelin and Excalibur to NASAMS and now Patriot air and missile defense system, we remain in lockstep with the U.S. government to ensure we can continue to support our allies.

我們最近獲獎的投資支持我們創建一個更安全、聯繫更緊密的世界的使命，這在 2022 年尤其如此。我們的產品和技術在幫助烏克蘭人民自衛方面發揮了重要作用。從毒刺、標槍和神劍到 NASAMS，再到現在的愛國者防空和導彈防禦系統，我們與美國政府保持同步，以確保我們能夠繼續支持我們的盟友。

On the commercial side of the business, we saw continued advancements on our path towards leading the future of sustainable aviation with the start of development flight testing of the GTF Advantage engine, which, as you know, further enhances the GTF's position as the leader in fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions.

在業務的商業方面，隨著 GTF Advantage 發動機的開發飛行測試的開始，我們看到我們在引領可持續航空未來的道路上不斷取得進展，如您所知，這進一步加強了 GTF 作為領導者的地位燃油效率和二氧化碳排放量。

Importantly, we also completed the first engine test run for our regional hybrid electric flight demonstrator. This system integrates a 1-megawatt electric motor, which was developed by Collins with a highly efficient Pratt & Whitney fuel burning engine, specifically adapted for hybrid electric operations. This new engine will reduce fuel burn and CO2 emissions by 30% compared to today's most advanced regional turboprop aircraft. These types of investments along with strong demand across both the commercial and defense end markets will position us for continued growth as we head into 2023. We're particularly proud that RTX outperformed among all companies in the Russell 1000 for local U.S. job creation in 2022. RTX leads the industry in employee giving and volunteering, which is a testament to the impact our workforce has in the communities where we work and where we live.

重要的是，我們還完成了區域混合動力電動飛行驗證機的首次發動機試運行。該系統集成了柯林斯開發的 1 兆瓦電動機和高效的普惠燃油發動機，特別適用於混合動力電動操作。與當今最先進的支線渦輪螺旋槳飛機相比，這款新發動機將減少 30% 的燃油消耗和二氧化碳排放。這些類型的投資以及商業和國防終端市場的強勁需求將使我們在進入 2023 年時保持持續增長。令我們感到特別自豪的是，RTX 在 2022 年美國當地就業創造方面的表現優於羅素 1000 強中的所有公司. RTX 在員工捐贈和志願服務方面處於行業領先地位，這證明了我們的員工對我們工作和生活的社區產生的影響。

Before I turn it over to Chris, I just want to spend a minute to talk about the status of our integration and the next steps as we evolve as a pure-play aerospace and defense company. As you know, in 2020, we brought together 2 great companies, UTC Aerospace business and Raytheon. With combined strength, scale and capabilities that makes us uniquely equipped to innovate and deliver game-changing technologies and solutions for our customers. As we approach the third anniversary of this merger, we've accomplished many of our objectives, including exceeding our original synergy commitment, and we see even more opportunities ahead.

在我把它交給克里斯之前，我只想花一分鐘時間談談我們整合的狀態以及我們作為一家純粹的航空航天和國防公司發展的後續步驟。如您所知，在 2020 年，我們匯集了兩家偉大的公司，UTC 航空航天業務和雷神公司。憑藉綜合實力、規模和能力，我們具備獨特的能力為客戶創新和提供改變遊戲規則的技術和解決方案。在我們接近合併三週年之際，我們已經實現了許多目標，包括超越我們最初的協同承諾，而且我們看到了更多的機會。

So today, we're starting the next step in our integration and evolution. Our plan is to streamline our structure to a customer-centric organization with 3 focus segments: Collins Aerospace, Raytheon and Pratt & Whitney. This will better align us with our customers' needs and allow us to better collaborate on next-generation technology. There's still a lot of work to be done to make this happen, but let me turn it over to Chris to give you some of the additional details of this transformation and some additional business updates. Chris?

所以今天，我們開始了整合和發展的下一步。我們的計劃是將我們的結構簡化為一個以客戶為中心的組織，該組織具有 3 個重點部門：柯林斯宇航、雷神和普惠。這將使我們更好地滿足客戶的需求，並使我們能夠更好地合作開發下一代技術。要實現這一目標還有很多工作要做，但讓我將其轉交給 Chris，為您提供有關此轉型的一些額外細節和一些額外的業務更新。克里斯？

All right. Thank you, Greg. It's great to join today's call, and I'm looking forward to engaging more with everybody.

好的。謝謝你，格雷格。很高興參加今天的電話會議，我期待著與大家進行更多的交流。

Starting here on Slide 3. Over the past year, I've been focused with our team on driving operational performance and program execution as well as identifying ways to improve our cost position and to ensure alignment between our investments and our strategic priorities.

從幻燈片 3 開始。在過去的一年裡，我一直與我們的團隊一起專注於推動運營績效和計劃執行，以及確定改善我們的成本狀況並確保我們的投資與戰略重點保持一致的方法。

As Greg noted, our merger integration is nearly complete, having realized gross cost synergies of $1.4 billion. And so we are now in the process of realigning RTX into 3 business units. Let me give you some additional color around our thinking on this. At its core, this move is about enabling us to better coordinate with our customers, aligning with their needs and collaborating more effectively across our businesses, all of which is feedback we've received from our customers. All of this will ultimately enhance performance, make us even more competitive and allow us to capture additional revenue synergies in areas such as connected battle space. For example, just this past year, we were awarded a phase of the JADC2 effort known as Titan, where RIS and Collins are working together to deliver this cutting-edge solution to ensure our joint forces have one common operating picture of the battle space.

正如格雷格指出的那樣，我們的合併整合已接近完成，實現了 14 億美元的總成本協同效應。因此，我們現在正在將 RTX 重新調整為 3 個業務部門。讓我圍繞我們對此的想法給你一些額外的色彩。這一舉措的核心是讓我們能夠更好地與客戶協調，滿足他們的需求，並在我們的業務中更有效地協作，所有這些都是我們從客戶那裡收到的反饋。所有這些最終將提高性能，使我們更具競爭力，並使我們能夠在互聯戰場等領域獲得額外的收入協同效應。例如，就在去年，我們獲得了名為 Titan 的 JADC2 工作的一個階段，RIS 和柯林斯正在合作提供這一尖端解決方案，以確保我們的聯合部隊擁有一個共同的作戰空間圖。

Additionally, this realignment will allow us to better leverage our scale so we can optimize our footprint, improve resource allocation, and reduce costs for both RTX and our customers. Now we don't have a number for you today in terms of cost savings as we are in the early stages of that analysis. But we do believe there are additional material opportunities to be realized. Connection with this reorganization, Roy Azevedo, President of our I&S business, informed us of his plan to retire. Roy will, however, stay on as an adviser over the next several months to help us with this important transformation. Sean Mural, currently the CFO of our I&S has been acting President of I&S, effective February 1.

此外，這種調整將使我們能夠更好地利用我們的規模，以便我們可以優化我們的足跡、改善資源分配並降低 RTX 和我們客戶的成本。現在，由於我們處於該分析的早期階段，因此我們今天沒有關於成本節約的數字。但我們確實相信還有更多的物質機會可以實現。與此次重組相關的是，我們 I&S 業務總裁羅伊·阿澤維多 (Roy Azevedo) 向我們通報了他的退休計劃。然而，羅伊將在接下來的幾個月中繼續擔任顧問，以幫助我們實現這一重要轉變。 Sean Mural，現任 I&S 首席財務官，自 2 月 1 日起擔任 I&S 代理總裁。

While organizational changes like this are never easy, we have demonstrated our ability to successfully execute on these types of initiatives in the past. And many members of the team involved in this process have experience from our recent portfolio and merger transformations. The exact timing of this change isn't final yet, the current plans to make effective during the second half of the year. Until then, we'll manage the business under our current structure. We'll provide updates on our progress over the coming months.

雖然像這樣的組織變革絕非易事，但我們在過去已經證明了我們成功執行這些類型計劃的能力。參與此過程的團隊中的許多成員都從我們最近的投資組合和合併轉型中獲得了經驗。這一變化的確切時間尚未最終確定，目前計劃在今年下半年生效。在那之前，我們將在目前的結構下管理業務。我們將在未來幾個月提供最新進展。

Before I turn it over to Neil to discuss our results for the quarter and the outlook for the year, I want to turn to Slide 4 to share some of our critical assumptions for 2023 and the areas where we're focused to ensure we execute on our commitments. As Greg mentioned earlier, customer demand for our products and services continues to grow. In Commercial Aerospace, we expect global air traffic to fully recover to 2019 levels as we exit 2023 with continued strength in the U.S. and Europe. This is pretty consistent from what we're all hearing from the airlines. And like everyone else, we're keeping a close eye on China, which historically has represented about 14% of global air traffic. Our working assumption today is that China's lifting of COVID restrictions continues to be manageable and its traffic levels will remain robust. We also assume traffic in other parts of the world remain resilient. We are, therefore, expecting commercial aftermarket revenue growth across our aerospace businesses to approach 20% in 2023.

在我轉交給 Neil 討論我們本季度的業績和今年的展望之前，我想轉到幻燈片 4 分享我們對 2023 年的一些關鍵假設以及我們重點確保執行的領域我們的承諾。正如 Greg 之前提到的，客戶對我們產品和服務的需求持續增長。在商業航空航天領域，我們預計隨著美國和歐洲的持續增長，全球空中交通量將在 2023 年結束後完全恢復到 2019 年的水平。這與我們從航空公司那裡聽到的情況非常一致。和其他人一樣，我們正在密切關注中國，它在歷史上佔全球空中交通量的 14% 左右。我們今天的工作假設是，中國對 COVID 限制的解除仍然是可控的，其交通水平將保持強勁。我們還假設世界其他地區的流量保持彈性。因此，我們預計我們航空航天業務的商業售後市場收入增長將在 2023 年接近 20%。

Commercial production rates are also quickly accelerating and we expect commercial aircraft volumes will be up around 20% year-over-year.

商業生產率也在迅速加快，我們預計商用飛機產量將同比增長約 20%。

On the defense side, our backlog is expected to continue to grow given the heightened and increasingly complex threat environment. In the U.S., we continue to see strong bipartisan support as evidenced by the adoption of the defense authorization bill and the Omnibus Appropriations bill with a budget of $858 billion, which is up about 10% from 2022.

在防禦方面，鑑於威脅環境的加劇和日益複雜，我們的積壓預計將繼續增長。在美國，我們繼續看到強大的兩黨支持，國防授權法案和綜合撥款法案的通過證明了這一點，預算為 8580 億美元，比 2022 年增加了約 10%。

In overseas, the EU is targeting a EUR 70 billion increase in defense spending over the next 3 years and Japan will increase their defense budget by 26% this year. Given our current backlog and this continued strength in demand, we remain extremely focused on execution, and I see 4 key actions that will position us to be successful on this front. One, we continue to grow production capacity to deliver on this backlog as we move through 2023 and '24. For example, we've made investments in key strategic locations like Asheville, North Carolina, for Turbine Airfoils, the Kinney, Texas for RF and EO/IR products in Bangalore, India to expand the Collins India manufacturing strategy. Second, we, of course, need a skilled workforce to execute our development and production programs. Labor availability remains a constraint. We've made some progress across RTX in Q4 through reduced attrition and other strategic retention and recruiting initiatives.

在海外，歐盟的目標是在未來 3 年增加 700 億歐元的國防開支，日本今年的國防預算將增加 26%。鑑於我們目前的積壓和這種持續強勁的需求，我們仍然非常關注執行，我看到 4 個關鍵行動將使我們在這方面取得成功。第一，我們將繼續提高生產能力，以在 2023 年和 24 年期間交付這些積壓訂單。例如，我們在關鍵戰略地點進行了投資，如北卡羅來納州阿什維爾的渦輪機翼、德克薩斯州金尼的射頻和 EO/IR 產品以及印度班加羅爾，以擴大柯林斯印度製造戰略。其次，我們當然需要熟練的勞動力來執行我們的開發和生產計劃。勞動力供應仍然是一個制約因素。通過減少人員流失和其他戰略保留和招聘計劃，我們在第四季度在 RTX 方面取得了一些進展。

Third, we need to continue restoring health within our supply chain. We've actively maintained a physical presence at close to 400 supplier sites. We continue to qualify additional suppliers on key programs. We secured sources of supply for critical commodities. While we are broadly beginning to see our supply chain improve, it is not yet at the levels we need, we are assuming a recovery as we move into the back half of the year.

第三，我們需要繼續恢復供應鏈的健康。我們在近 400 個供應商站點積極維護實體存在。我們繼續在關鍵項目上對其他供應商進行資格認證。我們確保了關鍵商品的供應來源。雖然我們普遍開始看到我們的供應鏈有所改善，但尚未達到我們需要的水平，但我們假設在進入下半年時會出現復甦。

And lastly, we are taking a number of actions to deal with the elevated levels of inflation that everyone is experiencing. For perspective, we are expecting roughly $2 billion of labor and material inflation in 2023. And we are targeting to more than offset this headwind through higher pricing and aggressive cost reduction actions across all RTX. Some of these actions are in the category of blocking and tackling, such as continual process improvement and some are more strategic in nature, such as driving productivity through increasing the amount of connected equipment and automated factory hours. No doubt, we've got a lot of work in front of us, but I think we all believe we've got the right actions identified, and more importantly, the right team in place to do it.

最後，我們正在採取一系列行動來應對每個人都在經歷的高通脹水平。從長遠來看，我們預計 2023 年將出現大約 20 億美元的勞動力和材料通脹。我們的目標是通過提高所有 RTX 的定價和積極的成本削減行動來抵消這一逆風。其中一些行動屬於阻止和解決的範疇，例如持續改進流程，而另一些行動則更具戰略性，例如通過增加連接設備的數量和自動化工廠工時來提高生產力。毫無疑問，我們面前有很多工作要做，但我認為我們都相信我們已經確定了正確的行動，更重要的是，有合適的團隊來做這件事。

So with that, let me turn it over to Neil to look at our financial results and outlook for '23.

因此，讓我把它交給尼爾看看我們 23 年的財務業績和展望。

Thank you, Chris. Let's turn to Slide 5. I'm pleased to see how we finished the year where we continue to see solid growth in organic sales and adjusted earnings per share and robust free cash flow in the quarter. Fourth quarter sales of $18.1 billion grew 7% organically versus the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by our commercial aerospace businesses as the continued recovery in commercial air traffic more than offset the supply chain and labor challenges we saw during the year. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.27 was in line with our expectations and up 18%, led by the commercial aftermarket at Pratt & Collins which more than offset the impact of lower productivity in our defense businesses.

謝謝你，克里斯。讓我們轉到幻燈片 5。我很高興看到我們如何結束這一年，我們繼續看到本季度有機銷售額和調整後每股收益的穩健增長以及強勁的自由現金流。第四季度銷售額為 181 億美元，與去年同期相比有機增長 7%。這一增長主要是由我們的商業航空航天業務推動的，因為商業空中交通的持續復甦抵消了我們在這一年中看到的供應鍊和勞動力挑戰。調整後的每股收益為 1.27 美元，符合我們的預期，增長 18%，這主要得益於普惠柯林斯的商業售後市場，這大大抵消了我們國防業務生產力下降的影響。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.96 per share and included $0.31 of acquisition accounting adjustments, restructuring and nonrecurring items. It's worth noting that both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share had a tax benefit of about $0.06 associated with legal entity and operational reorganizations, which were completed during the quarter. And finally, we had free cash flow of $3.8 billion in the quarter, bringing our total cash generation for the year to $4.9 billion which exceeded our commitment as a result of stronger collections, particularly in international areas across the portfolio.

根據 GAAP，持續經營每股收益為 0.96 美元，其中包括 0.31 美元的收購會計調整、重組和非經常性項目。值得注意的是，GAAP 和調整後的每股收益都有約 0.06 美元的稅收優惠，與本季度完成的法人實體和運營重組相關。最後，我們本季度的自由現金流為 38 億美元，使我們全年產生的現金總額達到 49 億美元，這超出了我們的承諾，因為收款能力更強，尤其是在整個投資組合的國際領域。

With that, let's turn to Slide 6, and I'll get into the segment results. Starting with Collins. Collins sales were $5.7 billion in the quarter, up 15% on an adjusted basis and up 16% organically, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets.

有了這個，讓我們轉到幻燈片 6，我將進入細分結果。從柯林斯開始。柯林斯本季度的銷售額為 57 億美元，調整後增長 15%，有機增長 16%，這主要受商業航空終端市場持續復甦的推動。

By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 21%, driven by a 32% increase in provisioning and a 25% increase in parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 5% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 6%.

按渠道劃分，商業售後市場銷售額增長 21%，受供應增長 32% 和零件和維修增長 25% 的推動，而改裝和升級在本季度有機增長 5%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 6%。

Commercial OE sales were up 20% versus prior year, driven principally by the continued strength in the narrow-body. Military sales were up 5%, driven primarily by improved material receipts, higher volume and new program awards. Adjusted operating profit of $743 million was up $274 million from the prior year as drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and lower R&D expense was more than offset by higher SG&A expense.

商用 OE 銷售額較上年增長 20%，主要受窄體機市場持續強勁的推動。軍品銷售額增長了 5%，這主要是由於材料收入的增加、銷量的增加和新項目獎勵的推動。調整後的營業利潤為 7.43 億美元，比上年增加 2.74 億美元，這是因為較高的商業售後市場銷量和較低的研發費用被較高的 SG&A 費用所抵消。

So shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 7. Sales of $5.7 billion were up 10% on an adjusted basis and up 11% on an organic basis with commercial OE sales growth in large commercial engines in Pratt Canada as well as higher commercial aftermarket volume. Commercial OE sales were up 37%, driven by favorable volume and mix within Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses.

因此，請轉到幻燈片 7 上的普惠公司。57 億美元的銷售額在調整後增長 10%，在有機基礎上增長 11%，普惠加拿大大型商用發動機的商業 OE 銷售增長以及更高的商業售後市場銷量。商用 OE 銷售額增長了 37%，這得益於普惠大型商用發動機和普惠加拿大業務的有利銷量和組合。

Commercial aftermarket sales were up 11% in the quarter with growth in both legacy large commercial and Pratt Canada shop visits. In the military business, sales were down 2%, driven by lower military legacy program aftermarket sales. Adjusted operating profit of $321 million was up $159 million from the prior year, driven primarily by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket, which included a favorable contract adjustment. It was partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D.

本季度商業售後市場銷售額增長了 11%，傳統大型商業和 Pratt Canada 商店訪問量均有所增長。在軍事業務中，銷售額下降了 2%，這是由於軍事遺留項目售後市場銷售額下降所致。調整後的營業利潤為 3.21 億美元，比上年增加 1.59 億美元，這主要是由於更高的商業售後市場的下降，其中包括有利的合同調整。它被較高的 SG&A 和 R&D 部分抵消。

Turning now to RINS on Slide 8. Sales of $3.5 billion were down 8% versus prior year on an adjusted basis, driven by the divestiture of the global training and services business in the fourth quarter of 2021. On an organic basis, sales were down 5% versus prior year, driven by command control and communications, cyber training and services and sensing and effects.

現在轉到幻燈片 8 上的 RINS。在 2021 年第四季度剝離全球培訓和服務業務的推動下，調整後的銷售額為 35 億美元，比上年下降 8%。在有機基礎上，銷售額下降與上一年相比增長 5%，受指揮控制和通信、網絡培訓和服務以及傳感和效果的推動。

Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $278 million was down $122 million versus prior year. Excluding the impact of divestitures, operating profit was down $96 million driven primarily by unfavorable mix, lower net program efficiencies and lower volume. RIS had a $2.9 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $16 billion and on a full year basis, RIS's book-to-bill was 0.96.

本季度調整後營業利潤為 2.78 億美元，較上年同期下降 1.22 億美元。排除資產剝離的影響，營業利潤下降了 9600 萬美元，這主要是由於不利的組合、較低的淨計劃效率和較低的銷量。 RIS 在本季度的預訂量為 29 億美元，導致訂單出貨率為 0.92，積壓訂單為 160 億美元，按全年計算，RIS 的訂單出貨率為 0.96。

Turning now to Slide 9. R&D sales were $4.1 billion, up 6% on an adjusted basis and up 7% organically, primarily driven by higher volume and naval power programs including SPY-6 production, higher volume and strategic missile defense, including next-generation interceptor development and higher volume and advanced technology programs.

現在轉到幻燈片 9。研發銷售額為 41 億美元，調整後增長 6%，有機增長 7%，這主要是由於產量增加和海軍力量計劃（包括 SPY-6 生產）、產量增加和戰略導彈防禦計劃（包括下一代）的推動。一代攔截器開發和更高容量的先進技術項目。

Adjusted operating profit of $418 million was $68 million lower than the prior year, driven by unfavorable program mix and lower net program efficiencies partially offset by drop-through on higher volume. RMD's bookings in the quarter were $6 billion for a book-to-bill of 1.48. And for the full year, RMD's book-to-bill was 1.37, resulting in a record backlog of $34 billion.

調整後的營業利潤為 4.18 億美元，比上年減少 6800 萬美元，原因是不利的計劃組合和較低的淨計劃效率部分被較高銷量的下降所抵消。 RMD 本季度的預訂量為 60 億美元，訂單出貨率為 1.48。全年，RMD 的訂單出貨比為 1.37，積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 340 億美元。

So with that, let's turn to Slide 10 to discuss the financial outlook for the year. At the RTX level, we expect full year 2023 sales of between $72 billion and $73 billion, which represents organic growth of 7% to 9% year-over-year. From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted earnings per share of $4.90 to $5.05, up 3% to 6% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $4.8 billion.

因此，讓我們轉到幻燈片 10 來討論今年的財務前景。在 RTX 層面，我們預計 2023 年全年銷售額在 720 億美元至 730 億美元之間，同比有機增長 7% 至 9%。從收益的角度來看，我們預計調整後的每股收益為 4.90 美元至 5.05 美元，同比增長 3% 至 6%。我們預計將產生約 48 億美元的自由現金流。

I should note, we are not assuming the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes will be repealed in our outlook. And as a result, in 2023, we'll have a cash payment of about $1.4 billion related to the current law. While there are more details on the cash flow walk in the appendix, let me share a few of the moving pieces.

我應該指出，在我們的展望中，我們並不假設出於稅收目的要求將研發資本化的立法將被廢除。因此，到 2023 年，我們將根據現行法律支付約 14 億美元的現金。雖然附錄中有更多關於現金流量的詳細信息，但讓我分享一些動人的片段。

First, we are expecting segment operating profit growth. Offsetting that will be increases in working capital, capital expenditures as well as a lower pension cost recovery. Additionally, we're expecting to buy back approximately $3 billion of RTX shares in 2023, of course, subject to market conditions.

首先，我們預計分部營業利潤增長。營運資本、資本支出的增加以及較低的養老金成本回收將抵消這一影響。此外，我們預計在 2023 年回購約 30 億美元的 RTX 股票，當然，這取決於市場情況。

Now getting into the details around the earnings per share walk. Starting at the segment level. We expect strong operating profit growth of about 20%, which results in about $0.77 of earnings per share growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. And as Chris noted earlier, this overcomes about $2 billion of material and labor inflation. And with respect to pension, although markets have improved since we spoke in October, pension will still be a substantial year-over-year headwind based on actual 2022 asset returns and where discount rates ended the year, that headwind will be about $0.22. Our tax rate in 2023 is expected to be approximately 18% versus the 14.4% we saw in 2022, which will result in a $0.22 headwind. This change is primarily driven by benefits recorded in 2022 that likely won't repeat in 2023.

現在詳細了解每股收益。從段級別開始。我們預計營業利潤將強勁增長約 20%，這導致每股收益增長約 0.77 美元，處於我們展望範圍的中點。正如克里斯之前指出的那樣，這克服了大約 20 億美元的材料和勞動力通脹。在養老金方面，儘管自我們 10 月份發表講話以來市場有所改善，但根據 2022 年的實際資產回報率，養老金同比仍將是一個巨大的逆風，而在年底貼現率的情況下，這一逆風將約為 0.22 美元。我們在 2023 年的稅率預計約為 18%，而我們在 2022 年看到的稅率為 14.4%，這將導致 0.22 美元的逆風。這一變化主要是由 2022 年記錄的收益驅動的，而 2023 年可能不會重現。

And to wrap things up, we see about $0.14 of net headwind year-over-year, primarily driven by higher interest and corporate expenses, and all of this brings us to our outlook range of the $4.90 to $5.05 per share.

總而言之，我們看到同比淨阻力約為 0.14 美元，這主要是由於利息和公司支出增加所致，所有這些使我們的預期範圍為每股 4.90 美元至 5.05 美元。

So with that, let's go to Slide 11 for a little more detail on the segment outlooks. At Collins, we expect full year sales to be up low double digits, primarily driven by continuation of the commercial aero recovery. Military sales at Collins are expected to be up mid-single digits for the year as well. We expect Collins adjusted operating profit to grow between $750 million and $825 million versus last year, and this is primarily driven by drop-through on commercial aftermarket, higher OE production ramp and increased defense volumes.

因此，讓我們轉到幻燈片 11，了解有關細分市場前景的更多詳細信息。在柯林斯，我們預計全年銷售額將增長兩位數，這主要是由於商業航空復甦的持續推動。 Collins 的軍事銷售額預計今年也將增長中等個位數。我們預計 Collins 調整後的營業利潤將比去年增長 7.5 億美元至 8.25 億美元，這主要是由於商業售後市場的下降、更高的 OE 生產坡度和增加的防禦量。

At Pratt & Whitney, we expect full year sales to be up low to mid-teens versus prior year, principally driven by higher OE deliveries in both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses as well as continued growth in legacy large commercial engines, GTF aftermarket and Pratt Canada shop visits.

在 Pratt & Whitney，我們預計全年銷售額將比上一年低至 15% 左右，這主要是由於 Pratt 的大型商用發動機和 Pratt Canada 業務的 OE 交付量增加，以及傳統大型商用發動機 GTF 的持續增長售後市場和 Pratt Canada 商店參觀。

Military sales at Pratt are expected to be flat, driven by higher F135 sustainment volume, which will offset lower F135 material inputs. We expect Pratt's adjusted operating profit to grow between $200 million and $275 million versus last year, primarily on higher aftermarket volume, which is partially offset by a higher large commercial OE delivery impact.

在 F135 維持量增加的推動下，Pratt 的軍事銷售預計將持平，這將抵消 F135 材料投入的減少。我們預計 Pratt 的調整後營業利潤將比去年增長 2 億美元至 2.75 億美元，這主要是由於售後市場銷量增加，這部分被大型商業 OE 交付影響增加所抵消。

Turning to RINS. We expect full year sales to be flat versus the prior year and adjusted operating profit to be up between $75 million and $125 million, driven by improved net program efficiencies. And in R&D, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single digits versus 2022 as the effects of the supply chain constraints ease in the back half of the year and for adjusted operating profit to be up between $175 million and $225 million versus prior year, driven by improved net program efficiencies, which will be partially offset by continued mix headwinds. And finally, higher intercompany activity will increase sales eliminations by about 10% year-over-year. And it's also worth noting, we've included an outlook for some of the below-the-line items and pension in the webcast appendix.

轉向 RINS。我們預計全年銷售額與上年持平，調整後的營業利潤將在 7500 萬美元至 1.25 億美元之間增長，這得益於淨計劃效率的提高。在研發方面，我們預計銷售額與 2022 年相比將增長中低個位數，因為今年下半年供應鏈限制的影響有所緩解，調整後的營業利潤將比上年增長 1.75 億美元至 2.25 億美元，受淨計劃效率提高的推動，這將被持續的混合不利因素部分抵消。最後，更高的公司間活動將使銷售抵銷額同比增加約 10%。同樣值得注意的是，我們在網絡廣播附錄中包含了一些線下項目和養老金的前景。

So with that, let me hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

因此，讓我把它交還給格雷格，讓他把事情搞定。

Okay, Neil, thanks very much. So we're going to close out on Slide 12 and take a quick look at our priorities. Obviously, there's no surprises here. As we head into 2023, I would tell you the future remains bright for RTX, especially with a $175 billion backlog and strong demand in all of our end markets. We also know the challenges that we saw in 2022 will continue, and we'll keep working to mitigate the big 3 that we continue to focus on: supply chain, labor and inflation. And although we're monitoring the macro environment, we remain optimistic on the economic outlook as the demand drivers for our businesses remain incredibly strong.

好的，尼爾，非常感謝。所以我們將結束幻燈片 12 并快速瀏覽一下我們的優先事項。顯然，這裡沒有驚喜。在我們進入 2023 年之際，我會告訴您 RTX 的未來依然光明，尤其是在我們所有終端市場都有 1750 億美元的積壓訂單和強勁需求的情況下。我們也知道我們在 2022 年看到的挑戰將繼續存在，我們將繼續努力緩解我們繼續關注的三大挑戰：供應鏈、勞動力和通貨膨脹。儘管我們正在監測宏觀環境，但我們對經濟前景仍然持樂觀態度，因為我們業務的需求驅動力仍然非常強勁。

As Chris mentioned, we're actively preparing for the demand ahead by expanding capacity, investing in digital solutions, and leveraging automation to unlock efficiencies across our value streams. We have the right team in place, and we're making the right investments. And we're also taking proactive actions to mitigate the risks we see today and to ensure success not just in 2023 but beyond.

正如 Chris 所提到的，我們正在通過擴大產能、投資數字解決方案以及利用自動化來提高我們價值流的效率來積極為未來的需求做準備。我們擁有合適的團隊，我們正在進行正確的投資。我們還在採取積極行動來減輕我們今天看到的風險，並確保不僅在 2023 年而且在以後都取得成功。

The streamlining lining of our businesses is just the next step in our journey on leveraging the unique scale and capabilities of RTX to deliver value for our customers and our shareowners. Right now, it's all about program execution and managing costs. We have the backlog. We have the demand, and we have the technology and our balance between defense and commercial aero will help us navigate into the future.

精簡我們的業務只是我們利用 RTX 的獨特規模和功能為我們的客戶和股東創造價值的旅程的下一步。現在，一切都與程序執行和管理成本有關。我們有積壓。我們有需求，我們有技術，我們在國防和商業航空之間的平衡將幫助我們走向未來。

We will, of course, continue to stay disciplined in capital allocation, and we're going to generate strong free cash flow this year and beyond, all of which enables us to return significant value to our share owners. Most importantly, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our 2025 targets. We're going to provide an update at our upcoming Investor Day, which will be on June 19 at the Paris Air Show.

當然，我們將繼續在資本配置方面保持紀律，我們將在今年及以後產生強勁的自由現金流，所有這些都使我們能夠為我們的股東回報可觀的價值。最重要的是，我們對實現 2025 年目標的能力充滿信心。我們將在即將到來的投資者日（6 月 19 日在巴黎航空展上）提供最新消息。

Before I close, I really want to say a special thank you to Roy Azevedo for his many contributions to Raytheon over these past 34 years. Roy has been a key member of our senior leadership team at RTX for the past 3 years, and we wish him nothing but health and success as he moves into the next phase of his career.

在結束之前，我真的想特別感謝羅伊·阿澤維多 (Roy Azevedo) 在過去 34 年里為雷神公司做出的許多貢獻。在過去的 3 年裡，Roy 一直是我們 RTX 高級領導團隊的重要成員，我們祝愿他在進入職業生涯的下一階段時身體健康，取得成功。

So with that, let's close out the -- this portion and open it up for questions. Latif?

因此，讓我們結束 - 這部分並打開它來提問。拉提夫？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Greg, just like to follow up on your final comment there on your confidence in 2025, whether this confidence has been shaken anyway by this change in the R&D tax legislation but also the supply chain challenges because you basically have to double the cash flow between now and then to get to your target.

格雷格，想跟進你對 2025 年信心的最後評論，這種信心是否因研發稅收立法的這一變化以及供應鏈挑戰而動搖，因為從現在開始你基本上必須將現金流量翻一番然後到達你的目標。

Rob, that is a great question, one that we have been working through over these last couple of months. We obviously thought going into the end of 2022 that the tax legislation, the R&D amortization would get eliminated. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. That cost us $1.6 billion last year. As Neil said, it will be another $1.4 billion. And as we go into the 2025 time frame, that drag will still be about $1 billion, about $800 million of that is actual net R&D deferral and there's a couple of hundred million dollars of additional interest expense and financing our little loan to the government.

Rob，這是一個很好的問題，我們在過去幾個月一直在努力解決這個問題。我們顯然認為，到 2022 年底，稅收立法、研發攤銷將被取消。不幸的是，這並沒有發生。去年，這花費了我們 16 億美元。正如尼爾所說，這將是另外 14 億美元。當我們進入 2025 年的時間框架時，拖累仍將約為 10 億美元，其中約 8 億美元是實際的淨研發延期，還有幾億美元的額外利息支出和為我們向政府提供的小額貸款提供資金。

So is all that being equal, we still see -- and we had always talked about a $10 billion free cash flow in 2025. Realistically, I think that number is going to be $9 billion. Now most of that growth from, let's call it, $5 billion this year to $9 billion is going to come from segment operating profit, which should grow between 2022 and 2025 by about $5 billion. And that just assumes an execution on the current demand that we have in backlog, right? That's -- there's nothing else magic about that except the continued return of people flying and the defense budgets remaining very robust. So we see a path to the $9 billion. I don't see a path to the $10 billion today because of the R&D. But it's a long time. We hope that people in Washington will understand that they're making a very, very bad tactical decision here and not allowing us to deduct R&D, but it is the reality that we face today.

所有這些都是平等的，我們仍然看到 - 我們一直在談論 2025 年的 100 億美元自由現金流。實際上，我認為這個數字將是 90 億美元。現在，我們稱今年的 50 億美元至 90 億美元的大部分增長將來自部門營業利潤，該利潤應在 2022 年至 2025 年之間增長約 50 億美元。這只是假設我們在積壓的當前需求上執行，對嗎？那就是 - 除了飛行人員的持續返回和國防預算保持非常強勁之外，沒有什麼比這更神奇的了。所以我們看到了通往 90 億美元的道路。由於研發，我看不到今天達到 100 億美元的途徑。但這是很長一段時間。我們希望華盛頓的人們會明白，他們在這裡做出了一個非常非常糟糕的戰術決定，不允許我們扣除研發費用，但這就是我們今天面臨的現實。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe a little bit more focus on 2023. You mentioned 400 suppliers in the supply chain. How are you expecting the supply chain to unravel across both the commercial aerospace and defense segments. And you mentioned $2 billion of inflation headwinds. Can you talk about the impact of pricing on a net basis and across the businesses, maybe where you're seeing the most impact?

也許更關注 2023 年。您提到了供應鏈中的 400 家供應商。您如何期望供應鏈在商業航空航天和國防領域分崩離析。你提到了 20 億美元的通脹逆風。您能否談談淨定價對整個企業的影響，也許您認為影響最大的地方？

Sheila, it's Chris. I'll start with this one and then invite Neil and Greg to chime in. So let's talk about supply chain for a minute. Maybe start with the positive, which was -- saw some stabilization as we exited the year last year. If you look at R&D, material receipts were up 30% Q3 to Q4. Supplier delinquencies were down. At Pratt, we saw some uptick in casting deliveries. So those are some of the green shoots that we saw at the end of the year.

希拉，是克里斯。我將從這個開始，然後邀請 Neil 和 Greg 插話。讓我們花點時間談談供應鏈。也許從積極的方面開始，這是 - 在我們去年退出時看到了一些穩定。如果你看看研發，第三季度到第四季度的材料收入增長了 30%。供應商拖欠率有所下降。在普拉特，我們看到鑄件交付量有所增加。所以這些是我們在年底看到的一些萌芽。

But I'll tell you, it's not where we need to be, especially for the back half of '23. The kinds of things that we're focused on, candidly, are the things that we can control. We've got the people on site, as you mentioned, and they're responding to engineering and quality issues, giving us better visibility of what's going on. We're leaving bottlenecks and also finding issues earlier than perhaps we were previously giving us more time to react. We've qualified some additional suppliers and negotiated additional LTAs. I think we did about 400 agreements last year with about $1.8 billion in annual spend. So again, giving our suppliers better visibility into our demand and what we're doing.

但我會告訴你，這不是我們需要去的地方，尤其是在 23 年的後半段。坦率地說，我們關注的事情是我們可以控制的事情。正如您提到的，我們已經派人到現場，他們正在響應工程和質量問題，讓我們更好地了解正在發生的事情。我們正在擺脫瓶頸，也比我們之前給我們更多時間做出反應更早地發現問題。我們已經鑑定了一些額外的供應商並協商了額外的長期協議。我認為我們去年達成了大約 400 項協議，年度支出約為 18 億美元。因此，再次讓我們的供應商更好地了解我們的需求和我們正在做的事情。

And then candidly, we're taking some actions in our own house to better enable supply chain performance, small things like reducing the time it takes to place a PO to perhaps more complex things like engineering changes to improve the yields on some of our complex parts and ensuring we've got sort of a stable configuration as programs move from development into production. So those are all the things that we're focused on continue to drive health and supply chain. But you're right, we're going to need it to perform to hit these numbers we've got here in '23 and beyond.

然後坦率地說，我們正在自己的房子裡採取一些行動來更好地實現供應鏈績效，小的事情比如減少放置 PO 所需的時間到可能更複雜的事情比如工程變更以提高我們一些複雜的產量部分並確保我們在程序從開發轉移到生產時獲得某種穩定的配置。因此，這些都是我們專注於繼續推動健康和供應鏈的事情。但你是對的，我們將需要它來實現我們在 23 世紀及以後獲得的這些數字。

So Sheila, the other question you had there was on inflation. And I think, again, we -- the $2 billion of inflation is a real number we saw last year. We were able to overcome it through cost reduction as well as some additional pricing. And again, we will see pricing benefits again in 2023, especially on the commercial aftermarket side. Keep in mind also on the defense side, about 1/3 of our business is cost type cost reimbursable. And so some of that inflation gets passed automatically along to our customer at the Department of Defense.

所以希拉，你的另一個問題是通貨膨脹。而且我認為，我們 - 20 億美元的通貨膨脹是我們去年看到的真實數字。我們能夠通過降低成本和一些額外的定價來克服它。同樣，我們將在 2023 年再次看到定價優勢，尤其是在商業售後市場方面。在防禦方面也請記住，我們業務的大約 1/3 是可報銷的成本類型成本。因此，部分通貨膨脹會自動傳遞給我們國防部的客戶。

As I think about that $2 billion, right, about $1.2 billion, I think Chris said is product related and about $800 million of that is people cost. And that is a real number. We've got roughly $20 billion in compensation costs across RTX that's about a 4% increase year-over-year for $800 million. It's a big number. But again, we've got plans in place for cost reduction, both in the supply chain and in the factories as well as in the back office. And some of this transformation activity that Chris mentioned with the realignment of the businesses will also present us an opportunity to get after some of that cost. So it's real, but we've got plans and I think we have more than provided for that in the guidance that Neil covered.

當我想到這 20 億美元時，對，大約 12 億美元，我認為克里斯說的是與產品相關的，其中大約 8 億美元是人員成本。那是一個實數。 RTX 的薪酬成本約為 200 億美元，同比增長 4%，為 8 億美元。這是一個很大的數字。但同樣，我們已經制定了降低供應鏈、工廠和後台辦公室成本的計劃。克里斯在業務調整中提到的一些轉型活動也將為我們提供一個獲得部分成本的機會。所以這是真的，但我們有計劃，我認為我們在 Neil 所涵蓋的指南中提供的不僅僅是這些。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德愛潑斯坦。

Question for you about this restructuring reorganization, I guess, in the defense business at Raytheon. I think we all understand that you'll get cost synergies out of it. But if you look at RIS in the quarter with the sales down 5%, how does the reorganization boost sales synergies. I think that that's the first question. And then the second question is -- I mean, it's really -- I mean, how do you boost that? And then the second question is, is there some restructuring that actually has to go on in that portfolio? Because are there some businesses in there that are just structurally lagging?

我想，關於雷聲公司國防業務的重組重組問題。我想我們都明白你會從中獲得成本協同效應。但是，如果您查看本季度銷售額下降 5% 的 RIS，重組將如何提升銷售協同效應。我認為這是第一個問題。然後第二個問題是——我的意思是，它真的——我的意思是，你如何提升它？然後第二個問題是，該投資組合中是否實際上必須進行一些重組？因為那裡有一些企業只是在結構上落後嗎？

Ron, it's Chris. Maybe I'll take a crack at the sales synergy. So again, as we kind of said upfront, this is about taking the organization to the next level, right? You got a tremendous defense backlog, something like $70 billion RIS R&D. And this is really about enhancing customer alignment and coordination. We've had customer feedback throughout the last couple of years about the need for us to figure out how to better integrate some of our solutions, providing mission solutions to the customers, coming in with a unified narrative and an investment story.

羅恩，是克里斯。也許我會嘗試一下銷售協同效應。因此，正如我們前面所說的那樣，這是為了將組織提升到一個新的水平，對嗎？你有大量的國防積壓工作，大約 700 億美元的 RIS 研發。這實際上是為了加強客戶的一致性和協調性。在過去的幾年裡，我們收到了客戶的反饋，要求我們弄清楚如何更好地整合我們的一些解決方案，為客戶提供任務解決方案，並提供統一的敘述和投資故事。

All of these things, I think, will enable us to work better and frankly, collaborate better across businesses. In large organizations like ours, you won't be surprised to hear that sometimes there's some friction there, and we think this will help remove some of that friction and again, provide better solutions to the customer. So thus far, the customer feedback, those that we've spoken to sort of see that potential and to us to execute on it.

我認為，所有這些事情將使我們能夠更好、坦率地工作，更好地跨業務協作。在像我們這樣的大型組織中，聽到有時存在一些摩擦您不會感到驚訝，我們認為這將有助於消除一些摩擦，並再次為客戶提供更好的解決方案。到目前為止，客戶反饋，我們已經談過的那些人看到了這種潛力，並讓我們執行它。

As of the portfolio, I think, again, RIS has a very strong portfolio. Book-to-bill was 0.96, not necessarily where we wanted. We had some campaigns push out of the year, but feel really strong again about the portfolio, and we're going to continue to invest in it.

至於投資組合，我再次認為，RIS 擁有非常強大的投資組合。訂單出貨比為 0.96，不一定達到我們想要的水平。我們今年推出了一些活動，但對投資組合再次感到非常強烈，我們將繼續投資。

Ron, let me just jump in and add to that. As we look at this reorganization, this is not just about putting RIS and RMD together to recreate the old legacy Raytheon company. We're going to look to take the entire portfolio of RIS, Collins, R&D and move the pieces where they most appropriately aligned from a technology and a customer standpoint.

羅恩，讓我插進去補充一下。當我們審視這次重組時，這不僅僅是將 RIS 和 RMD 放在一起重建舊的雷神公司。我們將考慮採用 RIS、Collins、R&D 的整個產品組合，並將各個部分從技術和客戶的角度移動到最合適的位置。

So you may well see pieces, especially related to JADC2 moving into the Collins business. We'll see how all of this evolves over the next several months. I would tell you by the time we get to the end of the first quarter, we should have a really good understanding of what the new organization is going to look like. We'll share that with everybody at that point. It's going to take us longer than that to actually do the rewiring, that's why we're talking about kind of a midyear.

所以你很可能會看到一些東西，尤其是與 JADC2 進入柯林斯業務有關的東西。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將看到這一切是如何演變的。我會告訴你，到第一季度末時，我們應該對新組織的面貌有一個很好的了解。屆時我們將與大家分享。實際進行重新佈線將花費我們比這更長的時間，這就是為什麼我們談論某種年中。

But I agree with Chris. I think the portfolio that we have across the legacy Raytheon and Collins business is really quite strong. And the book-to-bill we'll be -- we'll get better at some of those legacy RINS businesses, especially in the Space segment. I would also tell you that the performance in Q4 was not great, but it was really program -- legacy programs from many years ago that we still have not completed. So there's some work to do there. But I would tell you the portfolio is not broken or the business is not broken.

但我同意克里斯的觀點。我認為我們在雷神和柯林斯遺留業務中擁有的投資組合確實非常強大。我們將成為訂單出貨——我們將在一些遺留 RINS 業務中做得更好，尤其是在太空領域。我還要告訴你，第四季度的表現並不好，但它確實是許多年前的遺留項目，我們還沒有完成。所以那裡有一些工作要做。但我會告訴你投資組合沒有壞，或者業務沒有壞。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Recognizing that there's multiple top line inputs that are out of your control at the moment, which of the 2025 segment margin targets hold and which do not at this point? Because in the 2 aerospace segments, the '24, '25 incrementals required to get there are a lot better than '23. And then obviously, on the defense side, it requires a pretty big step up. So help me with that math? And I guess, just what's the latest medium-term outlook for each of the segment margins?

認識到目前有多個收入輸入超出您的控制範圍，2025 年的細分市場利潤率目標中哪些保持不變，哪些不保持不變？因為在 2 個航空航天領域，'24、'25 所需的增量比'23 好得多。然後顯然，在防守方面，它需要邁出一大步。幫我算一下？我想，每個細分市場利潤率的最新中期前景是什麼？

Yes. Noah let me take a stab at that one for you because as you look out to 2025, clearly, we've had in 2022 some supply chain and labor impacts that have kind of caused us to come in a little lower than our initial expectations. However, when you think about that backlog that we've been talking about, it's $175 billion at the company level, $69 billion, $70 billion within the defense.

是的。諾亞讓我為你試一試，因為當你展望 2025 年時，很明顯，我們在 2022 年受到了一些供應鍊和勞動力的影響，這些影響使我們的收入略低於我們最初的預期。然而，當你想到我們一直在談論的積壓工作時，在公司層面是 1750 億美元，在國防領域是 690 億美元，700 億美元。

We have a lot to deliver ahead of us. And so I think there's going to be some puts and takes as we look at the segments on an individual basis as you get out to 2025. But as I step back and look at the totality of RTX and where we projected to be and where we're aiming to go and with that backlog, we feel confident that we can get there. We can get the sales growth, get the earnings growth and Greg already hit on the cash flow pieces there.

我們有很多事情要做。因此，我認為當我們到 2025 年時，我們會逐個查看這些細分市場。但當我退後一步，看看 RTX 的整體情況以及我們預計的位置和我們的位置'的目標是去和積壓，我們有信心我們可以到達那裡。我們可以獲得銷售增長，獲得收益增長，而格雷格已經在那裡找到了現金流量部分。

So some things have changed since we've talked in 2021. We're certainly dealing with a lot more inflation, but we've also got the situation in Ukraine that has given R&D some tailwinds. So when we get to June, we'll be able to lay out that in more detail. It also be aligned with the format of our new operating segments at that time.

因此，自從我們在 2021 年討論以來，有些事情發生了變化。我們當然要應對更多的通貨膨脹，但我們也遇到了烏克蘭的情況，這給研髮帶來了一些順風。因此，當我們到達 6 月時，我們將能夠更詳細地說明這一點。它還與我們當時新運營部門的格式保持一致。

But I think there's going to be some puts and takes, but we're all focused on driving margin improvements and making the right investments to drive that automation in the factory and digitization. I should add to Greg's comments earlier about the free cash flow walk. We'll probably see about $0.5 billion of capital headwind between 2022 and 2023. So making the right investments. I'm really focused on earnings growth and conversion to cash and so we'll see where the margins land, but I do think we're going to get that earnings growth.

但我認為會有一些投入和投入，但我們都專注於提高利潤率並進行正確的投資以推動工廠自動化和數字化。我應該補充一下 Greg 早些時候關於自由現金流的評論。到 2022 年至 2023 年，我們可能會看到大約 5 億美元的資本逆風。因此，要進行正確的投資。我真的很關注收益增長和現金轉換，所以我們會看到利潤率在哪裡，但我確實認為我們會實現收益增長。

Is it your anticipation that you'll have a few hundred basis points of defense segment margin expansion over the next few years? And is that all cost or is that mix? Or is it not dealing with supply chain? Or how do you do that?

您是否預計未來幾年您的國防部門利潤率將增長幾百個基點？這是全部成本還是混合成本？還是不涉及供應鏈？或者你是怎麼做到的？

It's -- I would tell you, it is a combination of all of those things. It's supply chain getting better, which allows us to see productivity in our factories. It's also -- as we move from these LRIP contracts, initial rates of production on LTAMS and SPY-6 and others to full rate production to see an improvement in margin on the production side as well as the mix of DoD versus international sales. Today, we're actually at a low point of about 30% in RMD of international versus DoD sales that actually transitions back towards a more historical level 40%, 45% as we do more exports, especially around LTAMS and some of these other new systems.

它 - 我會告訴你，它是所有這些東西的組合。供應鏈越來越好，這讓我們看到了工廠的生產力。它還——當我們從這些 LRIP 合同、LTAMS 和 SPY-6 以及其他項目的初始生產率轉向全速生產時，我們會看到生產方面的利潤率以及國防部與國際銷售的組合有所改善。今天，我們實際上處於國際銷售的 RMD 與國防部銷售額的 30% 左右的低點，隨著我們進行更多的出口，特別是圍繞 LTAMS 和其他一些新的，實際上已經回到歷史水平 40%、45%系統。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment, Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Greg, I want to stay in R&D. You've just up low to mid-single digits on an organic basis. Just in the backdrop it seems like it should be potentially better than that. Obviously, wondering if you could just kind of parse out how much is being impacted by the supply chain? And if -- just when we think about all the DoD potential replenishment activity, plus you've got strong demand from NATO Allied. Just a lot of opportunities for the space. It feels like you should be having a more potentially sustained top line growth. Maybe just your thoughts on that over the coming next couple of years.

Greg，我想留在研發部門。你剛剛在有機的基礎上上升到中低個位數。就背景而言，它似乎應該比這更好。顯然，想知道您是否可以分析出供應鏈的影響有多大？如果 - 就在我們考慮所有國防部潛在的補給活動時，再加上北約盟國的強烈需求。只是空間有很多機會。感覺你應該有一個更有可能持續的收入增長。也許只是你在未來幾年對此的想法。

Peter, I think you're spot on. I think as we look at '23 and then '24, there is more growth potential at RMD than there probably is at any business outside of Collins just because, again, the backlog is so strong. I would tell you, given the challenges that we saw in supply chain last year and driving material in, I think we've taken a more conservative view of 2023 performance there. I think total material inputs at RMD last year were around $6 billion. This year, we're looking at about $6.5 billion. But quite frankly, the demand is out there for more. So that $6.5 billion should also drive some productivity, $100 million to $150 million.

彼得，我認為你是對的。我認為，當我們查看 23 年和 24 年時，RMD 的增長潛力可能比 Collins 以外的任何業務都大，因為積壓的訂單再次如此之多。我會告訴你，鑑於我們去年在供應鏈中看到的挑戰和驅動材料的加入，我認為我們對 2023 年的表現持更為保守的看法。我認為去年 RMD 的材料投入總額約為 60 億美元。今年，我們的目標是大約 65 億美元。但坦率地說，市場上還有更多需求。因此，這 65 億美元也應該會推動一些生產力，即 1 億至 1.5 億美元。

Again, I think that's actually light by historical standards, but we're -- I hate to say that we're conservative again and again. But really we set these targets. So we think we can absolutely deliver. We're not going to have to go back and relook at these in the middle of the year. But there is certainly the demand out there for higher top line and that would result in higher bottom line.

再一次，我認為這實際上是歷史標準，但我們——我討厭一次又一次地說我們是保守的。但實際上我們設定了這些目標。所以我們認為我們絕對可以交付。我們不必在年中回過頭來重新審視這些。但肯定存在對更高頂線的需求，這將導致更高的底線。

But most of that growth, I think, will come in 2024 when we really see supply chain back to where we had seen it prepandemic. And that is the key for RMD. They've got the orders. We've got the capacity. We just have to bring -- drive the material in and that $6.5 billion that we see next year is going to have to continue to grow significantly to meet the demand out there that we see.

但我認為，大部分增長將在 2024 年實現，屆時我們將真正看到供應鏈回到大流行前的狀態。這就是 RMD 的關鍵。他們接到了命令。我們有能力。我們只需要帶來 - 推動材料進入，我們明年看到的 65 億美元將不得不繼續大幅增長以滿足我們看到的需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

And Greg, just a follow-up first. I think you just said RMD might have the fastest growth outside of Collins. And I just wanted to clarify, is Pratt still the faster growing of the 2? Or is Collins now faster growing?

格雷格，首先是跟進。我想你剛才說 RMD 可能是 Collins 之外增長最快的。我只是想澄清一下，Pratt 仍然是 2 中增長最快的那個嗎？還是柯林斯現在增長更快？

From a bottom line perspective, it's going to be Collins, right? I think, again, top line, you're going to see -- what is the number, Neil, for '23 here for Pratt?

從底線的角度來看，這將是柯林斯，對吧？我想，再一次，最重要的是，你會看到——尼爾，Pratt 的 23 號是多少？

For '23, they'll be up low to mid-teens. So very substantial growth for '23. And sort of as you look out over the next several years, these all 4 businesses are in the same ZIP code of high single-digit type of sales growth on a CAGR basis.

對於 23 年，他們的年齡會從低到十幾歲。所以 23 年的增長非常可觀。就像你在接下來的幾年裡看到的那樣，這 4 家企業都在同一個郵政編碼中，在復合年增長率的基礎上實現了高個位數的銷售增長。

And maybe a more detailed question on Pratt. If you can just give a little color on where GTF is in the aftermarket composition, where legacy higher-margin aftermarket is in that composition? How those 2 play out over the next several years? And also how the GTF aftermarket is trending versus your sort of assumptions of profitability on those long-term contracts?

也許還有一個關於普拉特的更詳細的問題。如果您可以稍微說明 GTF 在售後市場構成中的位置，那麼傳統的高利潤售後市場在該構成中的位置？這兩個人在接下來的幾年裡表現如何？以及 GTF 售後市場的趨勢如何與您對這些長期合同的盈利假設相比較？

Myles, this is Chris. Maybe just as a step back for a minute on GTF. Demand remains really, really strong. As you know, we continue to do the block upgrades to drive improved time on wing, obviously improved time on wing helps with their contract profitability. We continue to incorporate upgrades to sort of improve the customer experience.

邁爾斯，這是克里斯。也許只是在 GTF 上退一步。需求仍然非常非常強勁。如您所知，我們繼續進行區塊升級以推動改進機翼時間，顯然改進機翼時間有助於提高他們的合同盈利能力。我們繼續整合升級以改善客戶體驗。

On the aftermarket side, in 2022 turned slightly positive. And so from this point, it's about accelerating those margins. You're going to see that through some better contract mix as we talked about back in Investor Day in '21. You're going to see that through increased time on wing through some of these upgrades. And so the GTF aftermarket profitability is something that is of high focus given the growing installed base, gets above 2,500 engines out there and a very large backlog. So GTF aftermarket is a huge driver.

在售後市場方面，2022 年略有轉好。因此，從這一點來看，它是關於加速這些利潤率。正如我們在 21 年投資者日討論的那樣，您將通過更好的合同組合看到這一點。您將通過其中一些升級增加機翼時間來看到這一點。因此，GTF 售後市場的盈利能力是一個高度關注的問題，因為安裝基礎不斷增長，那裡有超過 2,500 台發動機和非常大的積壓。因此 GTF 售後市場是一個巨大的推動力。

And maybe I'll just put a couple of financial numbers around that to help out a little bit. But at Pratt for 2023, we think the aftermarket there will be up between 20% and 25% from a sales perspective. So think about the legacy shop visits being about 15% to 20% up year-over-year.

也許我會圍繞它提供一些財務數字來提供一些幫助。但在 Pratt 2023 年，我們認為從銷售角度來看，售後市場將增長 20% 至 25%。因此，考慮一下傳統商店訪問量同比增長約 15% 至 20%。

On the OE side, that would imply about a mid-teens sort of a sales growth there. So we see strong growth, obviously, in the commercial business. And I guess while I'm on Pratt, I'll just throw out a couple of the Collins numbers just so everyone has them. In their aftermarket business, think about that as being up sort of low double digits to low teens, sequentially kind of growing in the low single-digit percentage kind of range. And on the OE side, up low to mid-teens year-over-year. So again, with all that OE growth that we see across the narrow and wide-body platforms, you'll see that both at Pratt and Collins.

在 OE 方面，這意味著那裡的銷售增長大約在十幾歲左右。因此，我們顯然在商業業務中看到了強勁的增長。我想當我在 Pratt 時，我會拋出幾個 Collins 數字，這樣每個人都能得到它們。在他們的售後市場業務中，將其視為從低兩位數上升到低十幾位，依次在低個位數百分比範圍內增長。在 OE 方面，同比增長低至十幾歲。因此，隨著我們在窄體和寬體平台上看到的所有 OE 增長，您會在 Pratt 和 Collins 看到這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Greg, I guess following up on that. Could you just comment where you are on, I guess, across mainly Collins, but also touching on Pratt, where you are relative to the manufacturer stated rates, I guess, in particular on the MAX in the low 30s, A320 in the mid- to high 40s and 787 around 2 a month.

格雷格，我想跟進一下。你能不能評論一下你的位置，我想，主要是柯林斯，但也涉及普拉特，你相對於製造商規定的費率，我想，特別是在 30 年代低的 MAX，在中期的 A320每月 2 次左右達到 40 多歲和 787。

David, it's something we focus a lot on. Obviously, we are, I would tell you, at Collins and at Pratt in lockstep with Boeing and Airbus in terms of their production rates. Obviously, some of the challenges that we've talked about at Pratt on the supply chain with structural castings is limited, I would say, some of our ability to meet some of the demand out there, that's starting to ease. And again, we are working very closely with Airbus on the A320 production rate.

大衛，這是我們非常關注的事情。顯然，我會告訴你，我們在柯林斯和普拉特在生產率方面與波音和空中客車保持同步。顯然，我們在 Pratt 談到的結構鑄件供應鏈上的一些挑戰是有限的，我想說的是，我們滿足某些需求的一些能力正在開始緩解。同樣，我們正在與空中客車公司就 A320 的生產率進行密切合作。

As far as 737, that's really a Collins story. And we -- the outlook that Neil talked about, that assumes those rates that you talked about around 31 aircraft or so a month on average. I think they were a little light on that in the fourth quarter, but we think we'll get back to that. They still have roughly 200 aircraft that be delivered that are in inventory, too, from when the line was shutdown, which, again, also is part of Collins' upside for the year.

至於 737，那確實是柯林斯的故事。我們——尼爾談到的前景，假設你談到的平均每月大約 31 架飛機的利率。我認為他們在第四季度對此有所了解，但我們認為我們會回到這一點。他們還有大約 200 架交付的飛機在庫存中，從生產線關閉時開始，這也是柯林斯今年上漲的一部分。

As far as 78 -- 787, we see that, as you said, I think it's 1 a month going to 2 a month and perhaps up to 3. Again, I think that's -- that will all depend upon Boeing's ability to continue to get the aircraft out the door. But we are working with them on a daily, weekly basis to make sure that we can support them. But we don't see anything in our supply chain today that would prevent us from delivering either at Boeing or Airbus to the rates that they need.

至於 78 - 787，我們看到，正如你所說，我認為它是每月 1 次到每月 2 次，也許最多 3 次。同樣，我認為這將完全取決於波音公司繼續把飛機開出門。但我們每天、每週都在與他們合作，以確保我們能夠支持他們。但我們今天在我們的供應鏈中看不到任何東西會阻止我們在波音或空中客車公司以他們需要的速度交付。

Great. And Greg, could you just comment on the Interiors business, how that's doing? Is that -- if you're starting to see a pickup there from the widebody side?

偉大的。格雷格，你能否評論一下室內設計業務，它的表現如何？那是——如果你開始從寬體機側看到一個皮卡？

Yes. It's -- David, I want to say, it is probably the slowest recovery of all of the Collins businesses to your point because it is primarily widebody. And as the airlines were conserving cash for these last couple of years, we saw sales down significantly. We don't expect a recovery in the interiors business literally over the next 3 years. So it gets better, but it's still not back to what it was prepandemic. It's -- it will remain a challenge.

是的。這是 - 大衛，我想說，這可能是所有柯林斯業務中復蘇最慢的，因為它主要是寬體。由於航空公司在過去幾年中一直在節省現金，我們看到銷售額大幅下降。我們預計未來 3 年內飾業務不會真正復甦。所以它變得更好了，但它仍然沒有回到大流行前的狀態。這仍然是一個挑戰。

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

So cash flow -- in the fourth quarter, you had a $900 million uptick in payables, a huge uptick in contract liabilities and yet inventory where you normally get a benefit in the fourth quarter were actually up a bit. Maybe comment on some of those trends and how that translates to a flat year in 2023.

所以現金流——在第四季度，你的應付賬款增加了 9 億美元，合同負債大幅增加，但你通常在第四季度獲得收益的庫存實際上有所增加。也許評論其中一些趨勢，以及這如何轉化為 2023 年持平的一年。

Thanks, Cai. Let me start on 2022 and where we ended the year. You're right, the inventory was up. I would say most of that was at Pratt & Collins as you think about the backlog, the growth rates we just talked about on the commercial aerospace side and the supply chain issues that we're all working to overcome.

謝謝，蔡。讓我從 2022 年開始，我們結束了這一年。你是對的，庫存增加了。我想說的是，當你想到積壓的訂單、我們剛剛談到的商業航空航天方面的增長率以及我們都在努力克服的供應鏈問題時，我會說其中大部分是在普惠公司。

We were pretty strategic in our thinking around making sure we're bringing the materials and so that we can deliver and meet the customer commitments. You pointed out the accounts payable growth there. So not all, but a large portion of that inventory growth was sort of offset by the payables to kind of go along with that.

我們在考慮確保我們帶來材料以及交付和滿足客戶承諾方面非常具有戰略意義。你指出了那裡的應付賬款增長。所以不是全部，但庫存增長的很大一部分被應付賬款抵消了。

On the advances side or the contract side, really, that was driven by some -- a couple of large international advances that we received in December. That contributed to our overdrive of free cash flow, which was about $500 million relative to our expectations. That will be a drag on working capital as you get into 2023.

在預付款或合同方面，實際上，這是由一些驅動的——我們在 12 月收到的幾筆大額國際預付款。這導致我們的自由現金流超速，相對於我們的預期約為 5 億美元。進入 2023 年，這將拖累營運資金。

And as I look at the '23 free cash flow, we see a little bit of headwind on the working capital, in part because of some of the advances that we got at the end of 2022. And I'd say in part because we're going to continue to be pretty strategic about making sure that we bring in parts and materials where we need them and where there's constraints and bottlenecks in the supply chain, value stream right now.

當我查看 23 年的自由現金流時，我們看到營運資金有點逆風，部分原因是我們在 2022 年底取得了一些進展。我想說的部分原因是我們我們將繼續非常具有戰略意義，確保我們在需要的地方以及供應鍊和價值流中存在限制和瓶頸的地方引入零件和材料。

So on balance, we're always targeting to take that inventory balance down, but we want to be smart and make sure we have the products so we can deliver it. We will be seeing improved velocity through our factories as we go through '23. So I'd expect the turns to improve here. But all eyes on the inventory management for sure, and then managing through the collections as we get into 2023 at our international customer sites.

因此，總的來說，我們一直致力於降低庫存餘額，但我們希望變得聰明，確保我們擁有產品，以便我們能夠交付。當我們經歷 23 年時，我們將看到我們工廠的速度有所提高。所以我希望這裡的轉彎會有所改善。但毫無疑問，所有人的目光都集中在庫存管理上，然後在我們進入 2023 年時在我們的國際客戶網站上通過集合進行管理。

Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Greg and Chris, following up on the supply chain, what issues are the same versus 2022 versus what issues are different, I mean considering the strengthening visibility on demand, I would have assumed that we've seen a lot more improvement by now. So what's the root of the problem. And can you provide more details on the actions you're taking to get this resolved by the second half of the year?

格雷格和克里斯在供應鏈上跟進，與 2022 年相比，哪些問題相同，哪些問題不同，我的意思是考慮到需求可見性的增強，我本以為我們現在已經看到了更多的改進。那麼問題的根源是什麼。您能否提供更多詳細信息，說明您為在今年下半年解決此問題而採取的行動？

Kristine, it's Chris. So I would say the constraints are those that we've talked about previously. I said that we saw some improvement on castings, but it's not where it needs to be, so castings is still there. Rocket Motors continues to be a pacing item at R&D. And microelectronics, while the lead times have stabilized, they haven't come down in back to 2019 historical levels. And so those are sort of the 3 main areas that I talked about. We've talked about in the past that continue to be a headwind as we're moving into '23.

克里斯汀，我是克里斯。所以我會說限制是我們之前討論過的那些。我說我們看到了鑄件的一些改進，但它不是它需要的地方，所以鑄件仍然存在。 Rocket Motors 仍然是研發中的一個節奏項目。而微電子，雖然交貨時間已經穩定，但還沒有回落到 2019 年的歷史水平。所以這些就是我談到的 3 個主要領域。我們過去曾談到，隨著我們進入 23 世紀，這仍然是一個逆風。

In terms of the specific actions, I talked about a few of them earlier. But again, some of this is what I would call blocking and tackling, in the factories, whether it be ours or our supply chain. And I mentioned that before. In some cases, we'll try to make an engineering change to improve producibility and ultimately yield. In other places, we just need to be in with our customer answering quality questions and making sure we can help them relieve bottlenecks.

具體的動作，前面講了幾個。但同樣，在工廠中，無論是我們的還是我們的供應鏈，其中一些就是我所說的阻止和解決。我之前提到過。在某些情況下，我們會嘗試進行工程更改以提高生產能力並最終提高產量。在其他地方，我們只需要與客戶一起回答質量問題並確保我們可以幫助他們緩解瓶頸。

On Microelectronics, a lot of that was about really the supply base, understanding our demand and then working some interesting agreements, negotiated agreements on making sure that we had our priority placed in line, and we made sure that we had our right allocation. With what you're seeing on the consumer side in terms of microelectronics coming down, we expect to see our allocation get better in that area. But again, still not where it needs to be here in '23. We are assuming a back half recovery. So certainly not all is lost, but it will be the man-to-man defense here to get to that point.

在微電子領域，很多都是關於真正的供應基礎，了解我們的需求，然後達成一些有趣的協議，談判達成協議以確保我們優先考慮，我們確保我們有正確的分配。隨著你在微電子方面看到的消費者方面的情況下降，我們希望看到我們在該領域的分配變得更好。但同樣，在 23 年仍然不是它需要出現的地方。我們假設後半段恢復。所以當然不是全部都輸了，但要達到這一點將是這裡的人盯人防守。

And Greg, maybe a follow-up. You mentioned on your commentary on commercial large structural casting. It sounded more constructive today than your commentary in previous quarters. I was wondering what changed in the supply chain that you're seeing to make you more confident? How much of that is the OEMs walking away from -- like Airbus walking away from 75 per month versus you're seeing that use through investments they're making or maybe labor easing.

格雷格，也許是後續行動。您在評論中提到了商業大型結構鑄件。今天聽起來比你在前幾個季度的評論更有建設性。我想知道您看到的供應鏈發生了什麼變化讓您更有信心？其中有多少是原始設備製造商放棄的——比如空客每月放棄 75 次，而你通過他們正在進行的投資或可能放鬆勞動力來看到這種使用。

I think, Kristine, if you think about the structural casting issue, we're not out of the woods, as Chris said, but it has certainly gotten a lot better from where we were a year ago today. And we continue to work with the suppliers there, primarily around the requirement side, making sure that the specifications that we're flowing down are actually producible in the supply chain. So that's giving us this confidence. But as Chris said, it's going to be the end of 2023 before we see structural castings back to 2019 levels. Again, we've got confidence they have been bringing people on, they have been training people. We have folks out there helping them. But all of that would support the OE rates that we need to support for 2023. Anything you want to add there, Chris?

我認為，Kristine，如果你考慮結構鑄造問題，我們並沒有像克里斯所說的那樣走出困境，但它肯定比一年前的今天好多了。我們繼續與那裡的供應商合作，主要是圍繞需求方面，確保我們流傳下來的規格實際上可以在供應鏈中生產。所以這給了我們這種信心。但正如克里斯所說，要到 2023 年底，我們才能看到結構鑄件回到 2019 年的水平。再一次，我們有信心他們一直在培養人才，他們一直在培訓人才。我們有人在那裡幫助他們。但所有這些都將支持我們需要在 2023 年支持的 OE 率。你想補充什麼，克里斯？

Yes. I would just support what you said, Greg, that our supply chain is bringing in labor they're starting to see more success on that front. But in some cases, like take casting it is a pretty complex process. And there's a learning curve for folks that you bring in and take some time to come down that learning curve to get to a level of productivity that we need to see for the improvements here. But again, focused on that in the back half of '23.

是的。我只是支持你所說的，格雷格，我們的供應鏈正在引入勞動力，他們開始在這方面看到更多的成功。但在某些情況下，比如拍攝演員，這是一個相當複雜的過程。對於你引入的人來說，有一個學習曲線，需要一些時間來降低學習曲線，以達到我們需要在這裡看到的改進的生產力水平。但同樣，在 23 年的後半段專注於此。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。

On Pratt, you're talking about 15% to 20% growth in the aftermarket, on the legacy programs this year. One of the things that we've been concerned about has been capacity constraints, just it's taking longer, say we get a V2500 into a shop for an overhaul and longer to get it through. When you look at that upside you're forecasting, how are you thinking about the capacity issue, labor availability? And is there potentially further upside from that if you can actually get -- have more success there.

在普拉特，你說的是今年遺留項目的售後市場增長 15% 到 20%。我們一直擔心的一件事是容量限制，只是需要更長的時間，比如我們將 V2500 送入商店進行大修，並且需要更長的時間才能完成。當您查看您預測的上行空間時，您如何考慮產能問題、勞動力可用性？如果你真的能在那裡取得更大的成功，是否還有進一步的好處。

Doug, let me start with that, and maybe Chris will add. So as we think about the outlook, you're right to say that we see the large commercial engine -- legacy commercial engine shop visits up 15% to 20%. Think about the Vs being up around 20. And if you think about the math there, we were a little over 700 or so as we exited 2022. So that puts us in the mid-800s kind of a range expectation for 2023, which is a level we've been at before.

道格，讓我從這個開始，也許克里斯會補充。因此，當我們考慮前景時，您說我們看到大型商業引擎是正確的——傳統商業引擎商店的訪問量增加了 15% 到 20%。想想 Vs 在 20 左右上升。如果你考慮那裡的數學，我們在 2022 年結束時略高於 700。所以這使我們對 2023 年的預期範圍在 800 年代中期，即我們以前的水平。

So as it relates to capacity, we have that level of capacity for the legacy shop visits. And it really then comes back to the conversation we've been having here for the last hour about ensuring that the supply chain is there and ready to support that level of shop visit inductions, which again, we've been planning. These expectations are in line with the numbers that Chris put out there back in May of 2021. So again, the supply chain, I think, expects this level of an uptick in our shops to as well.

因此，就容量而言，我們擁有傳統商店訪問的容量水平。然後它真的回到了過去一個小時我們一直在這裡進行的關於確保供應鏈在那裡並準備好支持這種水平的商店訪問誘導的對話，這又是我們一直在計劃的。這些預期與克里斯在 2021 年 5 月公佈的數字一致。因此，我認為，供應鏈也希望我們的商店也能達到這種水平。

In terms of -- is there upside as you think about retirements of this aircraft, for example, it was 21 aircraft in the last year got retired that were V2500 powered. So I'm not going to get ahead of ourselves. But I think that when you look at the dynamics around OE deliveries today of new aircraft, we think the V2500 still has a lot of life left in it. About 1/3 of that fleet has yet to see its first shop visit. And so I'm cautiously optimistic that we will see that fly for a longer period of time at these elevated levels. Chris, I don't know if there's anything else you want to add to that.

就-當你考慮這架飛機的退役時有沒有好處，例如，去年有 21 架飛機退役是 V2500 動力。所以我不會超越自己。但我認為，當您查看當今新飛機 OE 交付的動態時，我們認為 V2500 仍有很長的生命力。該車隊中約有 1/3 尚未進行首次商店訪問。因此，我謹慎樂觀地認為，我們將看到這種情況在這些高水平上飛行更長的時間。克里斯，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

Doug, I would add that you're right, turn times have been elevated on V and other platforms. And so we don't see as many supply chain constraints there, perhaps as we do in other areas. I would say the labor is stabilizing. Again, you bring in people off the street to do MRO, there is a learning curve associated with that individual becoming a productive technician and maintenance personnel.

道格，我想補充一點，你是對的，V 和其他平台上的周轉時間有所增加。因此，我們在那裡沒有看到那麼多的供應鏈限制，也許就像我們在其他領域所做的那樣。我會說勞動力正在穩定。再一次，你讓街上的人來做 MRO，有一個學習曲線與這個人成為一個高效的技術人員和維護人員有關。

But we believe we've got the plan in place there. In terms of upside, I mean, again, if you listen to lessors and others out there today, and Neil kind of referenced this, given the supply chain challenges we're having on perhaps new production, you're seeing airlines hold on to older assets longer, signing up for longer leases. So again, it kind of goes to the life of the V2500 maybe being some upside there.

但我們相信我們已經制定了計劃。就上行空間而言，我的意思是，如果你今天聽取出租人和其他人的意見，尼爾提到了這一點，考慮到我們可能在新產品上面臨的供應鏈挑戰，你會看到航空公司堅持較舊的資產更長，簽署更長的租約。因此，它又一次進入了 V2500 的生命週期，也許在那裡有一些優勢。

And just really quick, what was the favorable contract adjustment, the size of that Pratt for the quarter?

很快，有利的合同調整是多少，普拉特本季度的規模是多少？

From an operating profit, think about a few pennies.

從營業利潤來看，想想幾美分吧。

Our final question will come from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Guys, I wonder if we could dig in a little bit more on the GTF. And you talked, Chris, a little bit about the time on wing. What we've been reading lately from comments from some of the leasing companies and comments in the press is the time on wing on new generation engines has been falling short of expectations. And so a, kind of to what degree do you share that perception and kind of where does it need to get; b, what specifically in the engine, do you need to kind of improve to get it there; and then the last part is, I think you mentioned the GTF aftermarket profits were positive for the first time. And just with a relatively young pool of engines and maybe some time on wing challenges, how did profits get to positive?

伙計們，我想知道我們是否可以深入了解 GTF。克里斯，你談到了一些關於機翼時間的事情。我們最近從一些租賃公司的評論和媒體評論中讀到的是，新一代發動機的待命時間一直低於預期。因此，您在多大程度上分享了這種看法，以及它需要到達哪裡； b，引擎中的具體內容，您需要改進才能實現嗎？最後一部分是，我想你第一次提到 GTF 售後市場利潤是正的。只是有了相對年輕的發動機庫，也許還有一段時間的機翼挑戰，利潤是如何變成正數的？

So I would say that I generally agree with the sentiment that you're hearing, time on wing, and we've been pretty open about this. And very open dialogue with our customers about time on wing, on newer platforms, not necessarily being where we wanted them to be when we launched the program. We have done a number of block upgrades. As I said, we've got a block upgrade going in now through MRO that increases time on wing.

所以我想說，我大體上同意你聽到的觀點，時間在翼，我們對此持開放態度。並與我們的客戶就機翼上的時間進行非常開放的對話，在更新的平台上，不一定是我們啟動該程序時希望他們在的地方。我們已經做了很多塊升級。正如我所說，我們現在通過 MRO 進行了一次整體升級，這增加了機翼時間。

On average, about 20% just based on the geography that you're in. And we've got some other, I'd say, durability and reliability hardware and software fixes that we put in as well. So we want to -- we obviously want to get to the contractual levels that we have promised, and we've got a plan to go do that with these upgrades.

平均而言，大約 20% 僅基於您所在的地理位置。而且我們還有一些其他的，我想說的是，我們也投入了耐用性和可靠性的硬件和軟件修復。所以我們想要 - 我們顯然想要達到我們承諾的合同水平，並且我們有計劃通過這些升級來做到這一點。

I will tell you, keep in mind, you've got the GTF advantage that's going to start cutting in, in 2024. As you know, that's the next generation of the GTF, more thrust, better fuel burn, started flight testing in Q4 with Airbus, and we remain on track there in -- for 2024 EIS. That takes all of the lessons learned we've had on the, what I call base GTF program and some enhanced testing. And we think that that's the next generation that will get to the levels of performance and time on wing that our customers are anticipating. But even on the -- what I'll call the existing fleet today, we've got upgrade plans to continue to push that time on wing higher and higher. Our customers are demanding it, and our contracts are dependent on it. So we're aligned there.

我會告訴你，請記住，你擁有 GTF 優勢，它將在 2024 年開始投入使用。如你所知，這是下一代 GTF，推力更大，燃油燃燒更好，在第四季度開始飛行測試與空中客車公司合作，我們在 2024 年的 EIS 中保持正軌。這需要我們在我稱之為基本 GTF 程序和一些增強測試方面的所有經驗教訓。我們認為下一代飛機將達到我們的客戶所期待的性能水平和飛行時間。但即使在我今天所說的現有機隊上，我們也有升級計劃，以繼續將機翼上的時間推得越來越高。我們的客戶需要它，我們的合同也取決於它。所以我們在那裡對齊。

Okay. Thanks, Seth, and thank you, everyone, for listening today. As always, Jennifer and her team are going to be available today, tomorrow, the rest of the week to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you for listening, and take care, everyone.

好的。謝謝賽斯，也謝謝大家今天的收聽。與往常一樣，Jennifer 和她的團隊將在今天、明天和本週剩下的時間裡回答您的任何後續問題。謝謝大家的聆聽，保重。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。