雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Livia, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到雷神科技 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。我叫 Livia，今天我將擔任您的接線員。提醒一下，正在錄製本次會議以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the Internet, and there's presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.

今天的電話會議是董事長兼首席執行官 Greg Hayes；尼爾·米切爾，首席財務官；和投資者關係副總裁詹妮弗·里德（Jennifer Reed）。該電話正在互聯網上進行直播，並且可以從 Raytheon Technologies 的網站 www.rtx.com 下載演示文稿。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Raytheon Technologies' SEC filings, including its Form 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整以及管理層經常將其稱為其他重要項目的淨非經常性和/或重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。 Raytheon Technologies 的 SEC 文件，包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的結果大不相同的重要因素的詳細信息。 （操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給海斯先生。

Thank you, Livia, and good morning, everybody. As you can see in the press release this morning, RTX had another solid quarter of growth led by commercial aerospace and extremely strong demand for our products, with over $22 billion of awards in the quarter. I think it's important to note our balanced aerospace and defense portfolio, along with operational resiliency, remain the key differentiators, which enable us to deliver on our commitments despite some near-term macro challenges and uncertainties. I'm not sure what that noise is.

謝謝你，莉維亞，大家早上好。正如您在今天上午的新聞稿中看到的那樣，RTX 在商業航空航天和對我們產品的極其強勁的需求的帶動下又實現了穩健的季度增長，本季度獲得了超過 220 億美元的獎勵。我認為重要的是要注意我們平衡的航空航天和國防投資組合，以及運營彈性，仍然是關鍵的差異化因素，這使我們能夠在近期面臨一些宏觀挑戰和不確定性的情況下兌現我們的承諾。我不確定那是什麼噪音。

I think it's also important to note, we've overcome some significant headwinds in 2022, from transitioning out of Russia to record inflation and a strained supply chain. I think it's important. Those are short-term issues. And while we continue the day-to-day work to mitigate those challenges, we also continue to grow our $168 billion backlogs and invest in the future through over $9 billion of R&D, capital expenditures and customer-funded research and development. Those investments, coupled with strong demand for our systems across each of our businesses, positions us for significant growth runway as the near-term headwinds recede.

我認為還需要注意的是，我們已經克服了 2022 年的一些重大不利因素，從俄羅斯過渡到創紀錄的通貨膨脹和緊張的供應鏈。我認為這很重要。這些都是短期問題。在我們繼續日常工作以緩解這些挑戰的同時，我們還將繼續增加 1680 億美元的積壓訂單，並通過超過 90 億美元的研發、資本支出和客戶資助的研發來投資未來。這些投資，加上我們每個業務對我們系統的強勁需求，使我們在短期逆風消退時獲得顯著增長。

Before we get to the results, let me just spend a few minutes discussing the trends we're seeing in some of our end markets. On the defense side, no surprises. The elevated threat environment has significantly influenced how the U.S. and our allies are thinking about their defense capabilities and readiness.

在得出結果之前，讓我花幾分鐘時間討論一下我們在一些終端市場上看到的趨勢。在防守端，沒有驚喜。日益嚴重的威脅環境極大地影響了美國和我們的盟國對其防禦能力和戰備狀態的思考方式。

And as a result, this has driven global defense budgets substantially higher, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. Just as an example, in Europe, Switzerland recently signed a $6.25 billion contract to buy 36 F-35 jets, modernizing their fleet and driving demand, of course, for our F135 engine through the end of the decade.

因此，這推動了全球國防預算的大幅增加，我們預計這一趨勢在可預見的未來將持續下去。舉個例子，在歐洲，瑞士最近簽署了一份價值 62.5 億美元的合同，購買 36 架 F-35 噴氣式飛機，使其機隊現代化，並在本世紀末推動對我們 F135 發動機的需求。

We're also seeing significant global demand for advanced air defense systems, especially in Eastern Europe, as the Russians and Ukraine conflict, unfortunately, continues. This includes 2 of our NASAMS system, which is the short surface-to-air missile system that will help protect the people of Ukraine. And we expect more orders beyond those 2 to follow shortly.

我們還看到全球對先進防空系統的巨大需求，尤其是在東歐，不幸的是，俄羅斯和烏克蘭的衝突仍在繼續。這包括我們的 NASAMS 系統中的 2 個，這是一種有助於保護烏克蘭人民的短地對空導彈系統。我們預計不久之後會有更多訂單超出這兩個訂單。

The heightened threat environment continues to drive strong orders. During the quarter, we saw strong domestic and international demand for our products with a number of significant defense awards, which resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.22 and a backlog that's up about $2 billion sequentially.

加劇的威脅環境繼續推動強勁的訂單。在本季度，我們看到國內和國際對我們產品的強勁需求，獲得了許多重要的國防獎項，導致訂單出貨比為 1.22，積壓訂單比上一季度增加約 20 億美元。

Of particular note, our Missiles & Defense business was awarded $1 billion to develop the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM, for the U.S. Air Force. It's a first-of-its-kind missile that leverages air breathing scramjet propulsion technology and that can travel at hypersonic speeds of Mach 5 or greater.

特別值得注意的是，我們的導彈與防禦業務獲得了 10 億美元的資助，用於為美國空軍開發高超音速攻擊巡航導彈 (HACM)。這是一種首創的導彈，利用空氣呼吸超燃沖壓發動機推進技術，可以以 5 馬赫或更高的高超音速飛行。

Additionally, RMD completed the systems requirement review for the hypersonic glide phase interceptor program prototype. This is designed to protect the United States from increasing hypersonic missile threats. Both of these accomplishments demonstrate that Raytheon Technologies is a leader in the race to develop and deploy operational hypersonic and, importantly, counter-hypersonic systems, a key strategic priority for the Department of Defense.

此外，RMD 還完成了高超音速滑翔階段攔截器項目原型的系統需求審查。這是為了保護美國免受日益增加的高超音速導彈威脅。這兩項成就都表明，雷神技術公司在開發和部署作戰高超音速系統以及重要的是反高超音速系統的競賽中處於領先地位，這是國防部的一項關鍵戰略重點。

RMD also was awarded about $1 billion from the U.S. Air Force, Navy and international customers for advanced AMRAAM, which is the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile. These missiles have been upgraded with the most sophisticated technology needed to maintain the edge over adversaries of the U.S. and our international allies.

RMD 還從美國空軍、海軍和國際客戶那裡獲得了大約 10 億美元的先進 AMRAAM，即先進的中程空對空導彈。這些導彈已採用最先進的技術進行升級，以保持對美國和我們的國際盟友的對手的優勢。

At RIS, we saw an additional $1.6 billion in classified awards in the quarter. The team was also awarded $215 million from the FAA to upgrade their Wide Area Augmentation System to enhance safer air travel in support of the national aerospace system.

在 RIS，我們在本季度看到了額外 16 億美元的分類獎勵。該團隊還從美國聯邦航空局獲得了 2.15 億美元，用於升級其廣域增強系統，以增強更安全的航空旅行，以支持國家航空航天系統。

At Pratt & Whitney, the team recently delivered the 1,000th F135 engine and was awarded over $800 million through the quarter -- in the quarter to continue supporting the F135, which is the safest, most capable and best value military jet engine in operation. And we're working on the F135 engine core upgrade, known as the Enhanced Engine Package or EEP. This will allow the F135 to provide even more thrust, range and electrification to the aircraft. The EEP offers the most cost-effective and lowest-risk solution to enable the F-35's Block 4 upgrade.

在 Pratt & Whitney，該團隊最近交付了第 1,000 台 F135 發動機，並在本季度獲得了超過 8 億美元的獎勵——在本季度繼續支持 F135，這是最安全、最有能力和最具價值的軍用噴氣發動機。我們正在努力進行 F135 引擎核心升級，稱為增強引擎包或 EEP。這將使 F135 能夠為飛機提供更大的推力、航程和電氣化。 EEP 為 F-35 的 Block 4 升級提供了最具成本效益和風險最低的解決方案。

At Collins, we received a $583 million IDIQ award for the MAPS Gen II program, which maintains the integrity of positioning and timing in a GPS contested or denied environment. And it's an important award to ensure mission success within a more connected battle space.

在柯林斯，我們為 MAPS Gen II 計劃獲得了 5.83 億美元的 IDIQ 獎，該計劃在 GPS 有爭議或被拒絕的環境中保持定位和計時的完整性。這是一個重要的獎項，以確保在更緊密的戰鬥空間內成功完成任務。

As you can see, the defense pipeline remains robust, and we expect continued order strength in the future as we continue to win key awards to successfully demonstrate our technology leadership and innovation capabilities.

如您所見，國防管道依然強勁，我們預計未來訂單將繼續保持強勁，因為我們將繼續贏得關鍵獎項，以成功展示我們的技術領先地位和創新能力。

Moving to the commercial side. Air traffic remains strong as third quarter global revenue passenger miles reached 75% of 2019 levels. In the U.S., travelers through TSA checkpoints reached 91% of 2019 levels, with Labor Day domestic traffic exceeding 2019.

轉向商業方面。隨著第三季度全球收入客運里程達到 2019 年水平的 75%，空中交通依然強勁。在美國，通過 TSA 檢查站的旅客達到 2019 年水平的 91%，勞動節國內交通量超過 2019 年。

And we continue to see steady improvement in long-haul international traffic with wide-body hours flown up nearly 40% year-over-year. The strong demand -- the strong commercial aerospace recovery was driving demand for our commercial products and services, and we continue to innovate to deliver value for our customers.

我們繼續看到長途國際運輸穩步改善，寬體飛行小時同比增長近 40%。強勁的需求——強勁的商業航空航天復蘇推動了對我們商業產品和服務的需求，我們不斷創新，為客戶創造價值。

For example, just a few weeks ago, Pratt began development flight testing of the GTF Advantage engine on the A320neo aircraft in Toulouse, France. The GTF Advantage reduces fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by a total of 17% compared to the prior generation engines, extending the engine's lead as the most efficient power plant for the A320 family.

例如，就在幾週前，普拉特開始在法國圖盧茲的 A320neo 飛機上對 GTF Advantage 發動機進行開發飛行測試。與上一代發動機相比，GTF Advantage 總共減少了 17% 的油耗和二氧化碳排放，擴大了該發動機作為 A320 系列最高效動力裝置的領先地位。

Also during the quarter, Pratt completed the first flight test of the GTF-powered A321XLR, or Xtra Long Range, 2 significant milestones for the GTF family of engines. So even with some near-term challenges, we continue to invest in innovation for continued growth in air travel and to meet the strong defense demand.

同樣在本季度，普拉特完成了 GTF 動力 A321XLR 或 Xtra Long Range 的首次飛行測試，這是 GTF 系列發動機的兩個重要里程碑。因此，即使面臨一些近期挑戰，我們仍會繼續投資於創新，以實現航空旅行的持續增長並滿足強大的國防需求。

Okay. With that as a background, let's turn to Slide 2, some highlights in the quarter. In the quarter, we delivered another strong organic sales growth of 6%. Adjusted EPS was ahead of our expectations at $1.21, and free cash flow is also ahead of our expectations despite a $1.5 billion additional tax payment we made related to the R&D amortization.

好的。以此為背景，讓我們轉向幻燈片 2，這是本季度的一些亮點。在本季度，我們實現了 6% 的強勁有機銷售增長。調整後的每股收益為 1.21 美元，超出了我們的預期，儘管我們為研發攤銷支付了 15 億美元的額外稅款，但自由現金流也超出了我們的預期。

Sales growth was again led by strong commercial aftermarket sales that were up 24% over the prior year. However, we continue to see challenges related to supply chain and labor availability in each of our businesses.

銷售增長再次受到強勁的商業售後市場銷售的帶動，比上一年增長了 24%。然而，我們繼續在我們的每項業務中看到與供應鍊和勞動力可用性相關的挑戰。

On the capital allocation front, we repurchased over $600 million of shares in the quarter, putting us at $2.4 billion year-to-date. And we remain on track to repurchase at least $2.5 billion for the year. Through the end of the third quarter, we have returned over $12 billion of capital to share owners since the merger, and we're well on our way with our commitment to return at least $20 billion in the first 4 years following the merger.

在資本配置方面，我們在本季度回購了超過 6 億美元的股票，使我們年初至今達到 24 億美元。我們仍有望在今年回購至少 25 億美元。自合併以來，截至第三季度末，我們已向股東返還了超過 120 億美元的資本，並且我們承諾在合併後的前 4 年中至少返還 200 億美元的承諾正在順利進行。

Before I hand it over to Neil, notwithstanding the strength in demand that we're seeing across our businesses, the industry-wide challenges we're facing remain the same. You've heard me talk about them before: supply chain, labor and inflation. But we continue to focus on what we can control by proactively managing the businesses through these dynamic times.

在我把它交給尼爾之前，儘管我們在整個業務中看到需求強勁，但我們面臨的全行業挑戰仍然是一樣的。你以前聽過我談論它們：供應鏈、勞動力和通貨膨脹。但我們將繼續專注於我們可以通過在這些動態時期主動管理業務來控制什麼。

Let me give you some examples of what we're doing. On the microelectronics front, we're working closely with our distributors and the OEMs to bring more capacity online. We also have a direct engagement, which has led to higher deliveries and an acceleration of expected recoveries for certain wafers and chips.

讓我舉一些例子來說明我們正在做什麼。在微電子方面，我們正與我們的分銷商和原始設備製造商密切合作，以提供更多的在線產能。我們也有直接參與，這導致更高的交付量和某些晶圓和芯片的預期恢復速度加快。

At RMD, we're working hand in hand with our rocket motor supplier holding daily senior management meetings to track work in progress and solve technical problems real time. We're also leveraging RTX's contract labor agreements to help source labor in our supply base.

在 RMD，我們與我們的火箭發動機供應商攜手合作，每天召開高級管理會議，以跟踪正在進行的工作並實時解決技術問題。我們還利用 RTX 的合同勞工協議來幫助在我們的供應基地尋找勞動力。

To mitigate the impacts of inflation, we take multiple -- we've been taking multiple actions. For example, we're leveraging our raw material contracts from the business from RTX to get best prices for our suppliers as well. And while supply chain disruptions are frustrating, we are seeing some stabilization, and we're encouraged by the demand signals across the business. That said, these headwinds continue to pressure the business.

為了減輕通貨膨脹的影響，我們採取了多項措施——我們一直在採取多項措施。例如，我們利用來自 RTX 業務的原材料合同來為我們的供應商獲得最優惠的價格。雖然供應鏈中斷令人沮喪，但我們看到了一些穩定，我們對整個企業的需求信號感到鼓舞。也就是說，這些不利因素繼續給企業帶來壓力。

So as we finish out the year, just a couple of thoughts. We're going to have to adjust our full year sales outlook slightly to a new range of $67 billion to $67.3 billion. We're going to bring up the bottom of our adjusted EPS range by $0.10 to $4.70 to $4.80. And we continue to see free cash flow of about $4 billion for the year.

所以當我們結束這一年時，只有幾個想法。我們將不得不將全年銷售前景略微調整至 670 億至 673 億美元的新範圍。我們將把調整後每股收益範圍的底部提高 0.10 美元至 4.70 美元至 4.80 美元。我們繼續看到今年的自由現金流約為 40 億美元。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil and Jennifer to take you through the details. Neil?

有了這個，讓我把它交給尼爾和詹妮弗帶你了解細節。尼爾？

Thank you, Greg. Before I get into the full year, let's look at our Q3 results on Slide 3. Sales of $17 billion grew 6% organically versus the prior year, with organic growth at Collins, Pratt and RIS more than offsetting the decline in RMD. The ongoing recovery of commercial air travel and a strong summer travel season drove our aerospace performance while we continue to see challenges in the supply chain, as Greg mentioned.

謝謝你，格雷格。在我進入全年之前，讓我們看一下幻燈片 3 上的第三季度業績。170 億美元的銷售額與去年相比有機增長了 6%，柯林斯、普拉特和 RIS 的有機增長超過了 RMD 的下降。正如 Greg 所說，商業航空旅行的持續復甦和強勁的夏季旅行季節推動了我們的航空業表現，同時我們繼續看到供應鏈中的挑戰。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.21 was down 4% year-over-year but ahead of our expectations on better commercial aero. Segment operating profit growth of 12% was more than offset by the absence of a prior year tax benefit and lower pension income.

調整後每股收益為 1.21 美元，同比下降 4%，但超出了我們對更好的商業航空的預期。分部營業利潤增長 12% 被沒有上一年的稅收優惠和較低的養老金收入所抵消。

GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.94 per share and included $0.27 of acquisition accounting adjustments and restructuring. And free cash flow of $263 million was also ahead of our expectations and included the impact of the $1.5 billion cash payment that Greg just mentioned.

來自持續經營的 GAAP 每股收益為每股 0.94 美元，其中包括 0.27 美元的收購會計調整和重組。 2.63 億美元的自由現金流也超出了我們的預期，其中包括格雷格剛剛提到的 15 億美元現金支付的影響。

On the cost reduction front, we achieved an incremental $105 million of gross merger cost synergies in the quarter, bringing our merger-to-date total to $1.3 billion of our $1.5 billion commitment in the 4 years following the merger.

在降低成本方面，我們在本季度實現了 1.05 億美元的總合併成本協同效應，使我們迄今為止的合併總額達到合併後 4 年 15 億美元承諾中的 13 億美元。

Before I hand it over to Jennifer, a few comments on our full year outlook. The commercial air recovery remains robust, and we continue to expect that global RPMs will recover to about 90% of 2019 levels as we exit this year.

在我把它交給詹妮弗之前，對我們的全年展望發表一些評論。商業空氣回收仍然強勁，我們繼續預計，隨著我們今年退出，全球 RPM 將恢復到 2019 年水平的 90% 左右。

Domestic and short-haul international travel also remain strong, and we continue to see a steady recovery in long-haul international travel. However, as Greg discussed, while we're seeing some stabilization in certain areas of the supply chain and labor market, these constraints continue to put pressure on our businesses.

國內和短途國際旅行也保持強勁，我們繼續看到長途國際旅行穩步復甦。然而，正如 Greg 所討論的，雖然我們看到供應鍊和勞動力市場的某些領域出現了一些穩定，但這些限制因素繼續給我們的業務帶來壓力。

As a result, we're reducing our full year RTX sales outlook to a new range of $67 billion to $67.3 billion, which translates to between 5% and 6% organic sales growth. This is down from our prior range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. However, despite the lower sales outlook, we're raising the bottom end of our adjusted EPS range by $0.10 to $4.70 to $4.80 per share from our prior range of $4.60 to $4.80.

因此，我們將全年 RTX 銷售前景下調至 670 億至 673 億美元的新範圍，這意味著有機銷售增長在 5% 至 6% 之間。這低於我們之前的 677.5 億美元至 687.5 億美元的範圍。然而，儘管銷售前景較低，我們將調整後每股收益範圍的底端從之前的 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元提高了 0.10 美元至 4.70 美元至 4.80 美元每股。

Continued aftermarket strength, favorable OE mix and cost containment actions across RTX are partially offsetting lower sales and lower productivity in our defense businesses. You'll also recall that we previously assumed the legislation requiring capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes would be repealed or deferred this year. Since that hasn't happened, we've realized an EPS benefit of about $0.11 year-to-date and estimate that the full year impact is about $0.15 per share.

RTX 持續的售後市場實力、有利的 OE 組合和成本控制措施部分抵消了我們國防業務的銷售額下降和生產力下降的影響。您還記得，我們之前假設要求將研發費用資本化以用於稅收目的的立法將在今年被廢除或推遲。由於這還沒有發生，我們已經實現了今年迄今約 0.11 美元的每股收益，並估計全年影響約為每股 0.15 美元。

And on the cash front, we continue to expect free cash flow of about $4 billion for the full year. In the fourth quarter, we're expecting lower tax payments in several large international receipts. And finally, we provided an updated outlook for the segments and some below-the-line items in the webcast appendix.

在現金方面，我們繼續預計全年的自由現金流約為 40 億美元。在第四季度，我們預計幾項大型國際收入的納稅額將減少。最後，我們在網絡廣播附錄中提供了細分市場和一些線下項目的最新展望。

So with that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the third quarter segment results and updated outlook. Jennifer?

因此，讓我把它交給詹妮弗，帶你了解第三季度的業績和更新的前景。詹妮弗?

Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $5.1 billion in the quarter, up 11% on an adjusted basis and up 13% organically, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets.

謝謝，尼爾。從幻燈片 4 中的柯林斯航空航天公司開始。本季度銷售額為 51 億美元，調整後增長 11%，有機增長 13%，主要受商業航空航天終端市場持續復甦的推動。

By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 25% driven by a 44% increase in provisioning and a 31% increase in parts and repair, while modification and upgrades were up 3% organically in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 4%.

按渠道劃分，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 25%，這得益於供應增加 44%，零部件和維修增加 31%，而本季度的改裝和升級有機增長了 3%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 4%。

Commercial OE sales were up 16% versus prior year, driven principally by the strength in narrowbody. Military sales were down 6%, driven primarily by lower material receipts and decreased volume.

商業 OE 銷售額與去年相比增長了 16%，主要受窄體車的強勁推動。軍用銷售額下降 6%，主要是由於材料收入下降和銷量下降。

Adjusted operating profit of $630 million was up $150 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and OE more than offset lower volume on military program as well as higher SG&A and R&D expense.

調整後的營業利潤為 6.3 億美元，比上年增加 1.5 億美元。較高的商業售後市場和 OE 的直接通過抵消了軍事計劃的較低數量以及較高的 SG&A 和研發費用。

Looking ahead, we continue to see Collins' full year sales up low double digits. And as a result of stronger commercial aftermarket, we're bringing up the low end of Collins' adjusted operating profit to a new range of up $750 million to $825 million from the prior range of up $700 million to $825 million versus last year.

展望未來，我們繼續看到柯林斯的全年銷售額保持兩位數的低位。由於商業售後市場更加強勁，我們將柯林斯調整後營業利潤的低端提高到了 7.5 億美元至 8.25 億美元的新範圍，而之前的範圍與去年相比增加了 7 億美元至 8.25 億美元。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $5.4 billion were up 14% on an adjusted basis and up 15% organically, with sales growth in large commercial engines in Pratt Canada more than offsetting lower military sales.

在幻燈片 5 上轉向 Pratt & Whitney。54 億美元的銷售額在調整後增長了 14%，有機增長了 15%，其中 Pratt Canada 大型商用發動機的銷售額增長超過了軍用銷售額下降的影響。

Commercial OE sales were up 26% driven by favorable mix within Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada's businesses, along with higher GTF and Pratt Canada volume. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 23% in the quarter with growth in both legacy large commercial engine and Pratt Canada shop visits.

商業 OE 銷售額增長了 26%，這得益於 Pratt 大型商用發動機和 Pratt Canada 業務的有利組合，以及更高的 GTF 和 Pratt Canada 銷量。本季度商業售後市場銷售額增長了 23%，傳統大型商業引擎和 Pratt 加拿大商店訪問量均有所增長。

Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 14%. In the military business, sales were down 2%, driven primarily by lower expected F135 production volume that was partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume.

隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 14%。在軍事業務中，銷售額下降了 2%，主要是由於預期 F135 產量下降，部分被 F135 維持量增加所抵消。

The adjusted operating profit of $318 million was up $129 million from the prior year. The drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and favorable military and commercial OE sales mix more than offset higher SG&A and R&D expense.

調整後的營業利潤為 3.18 億美元，比上年增加 1.29 億美元。較高的商業售後市場以及有利的軍事和商業 OE 銷售組合的下降足以抵消較高的 SG&A 和研發費用。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect Pratt sales to be up low teens. And we're increasing Pratt's adjusted operating profit to a new range of up $650 million to $700 million from our prior range of up $550 million to $650 million versus 2021, reflecting the strength of the aerospace recovery.

展望未來，我們繼續預計普拉特的銷售額將達到十幾歲。與 2021 年相比，我們將 Pratt 的調整後營業利潤從之前的 5.5 億美元至 6.5 億美元提高到 6.5 億美元至 7 億美元的新範圍，這反映了航空航天復甦的力量。

Turning now to Slide 6. RIS sales of $3.6 billion were down 3% versus prior year on an adjusted basis driven by the divestiture of the Global Training and Services business. On an organic basis, sales were up 2% versus prior year due to higher classified sales in sensing and effects that were partially offset by lower expected sales in command, control and communications, including lower sales in tactical communications program.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。由於全球培訓和服務業務的剝離，經調整後，RIS 銷售額為 36 億美元，較上年下降 3%。在有機基礎上，銷售額比上年增長 2%，原因是傳感和效應的分類銷售額增加，但被指揮、控制和通信方面的預期銷售額下降部分抵消，包括戰術通信項目的銷售額下降。

Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $371 million was down $20 million versus prior year. Excluding the impact of the divestiture, operating profit was up $8 million, driven primarily by favorable net program efficiencies.

本季度調整後的營業利潤為 3.71 億美元，較上年同期下降 2,000 萬美元。剔除資產剝離的影響，營業利潤增加了 800 萬美元，這主要得益於良好的淨計劃效率。

RIS had $3.9 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.18 and a backlog of $17 billion. For the full year, we continue to expect RIS' book-to-bill to be greater than 1.

RIS 在本季度的預訂量為 39 億美元，導致訂單出貨量為 1.18，積壓為 170 億美元。對於全年，我們繼續預計 RIS 的帳單比將大於 1。

Turning to RIS full year outlook. A result of the ongoing material availability delays and the associated productivity impacts as well as anticipated cost reduction actions and award delays, we are reducing RIS sales to the low end of our prior outlook and now expect RIS sales to be down mid-single digit from our prior outlook of down mid-single digit to down low single digits on a reported basis versus prior year.

轉向 RIS 全年展望。由於持續的材料可用性延遲和相關的生產力影響以及預期的成本削減行動和獎勵延遲，我們將 RIS 銷售額降低到我們之前展望的低端，現在預計 RIS 銷售額將從中個位數下降我們先前的預期是在報告的基礎上與上年相比下降中個位數至低個位數。

On an organic basis, we now expect RIS' sales to be down slightly versus our prior outlook of about flat. And as a result of lower sales outlook and program efficiencies, we are reducing RIS' adjusted operating profit to a new range of down $125 million to down $75 million from a prior range of down $50 million to flat versus prior year.

在有機的基礎上，我們現在預計 RIS 的銷售額將略微下降，而我們之前的預期基本持平。由於銷售前景和計劃效率較低，我們將 RIS 調整後的營業利潤從之前的 5,000 萬美元下調至 7,500 萬美元的新範圍，與上一年持平。

Turning now to Slide 7. RMD sales was $3.7 billion, down 6% on an adjusted basis and down 5% organically, primarily driven by continuing delays in material availability and lower volume in Land Warfare and Air Defense and Naval Power programs. This was partially offset by higher volume on Strategic Missile Defense programs, including Next Generation Interceptor development.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。RMD 銷售額為 37 億美元，調整後下降 6%，有機下降 5%，主要是由於材料供應持續延遲以及陸戰、防空和海軍動力項目數量減少。這被包括下一代攔截器開發在內的戰略導彈防禦計劃數量增加所部分抵消。

Adjusted operating profit of $116 million (sic) [$416 million] was $74 million lower than prior year driven by unfavorable program mix and lower volume, primarily in Land Warfare and Air Defense programs as well as lower net program efficiencies resulted from continued supply chain and labor constraints. RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $5.4 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.5 and backlog of $32 billion.

調整後的營業利潤為 1.16 億美元（原文如此）[4.16 億美元]，比上年減少 7400 萬美元，原因是不利的項目組合和數量減少，主要是陸戰和防空項目，以及持續的供應鍊和勞動力限制。 RMD 在本季度的預訂量約為 54 億美元，導致訂單出貨量為 1.5，積壓為 320 億美元。

For the full year, we now expect RMD's book-to-bill to be at or better than 1.2. As a result of ongoing material availability delays and the associated productivity impacts and cost reduction actions, we now expect RMD sales to be down low single digits versus our prior outlook of up slightly versus 2021. And as a result of the lower sales outlook and lower program efficiencies, we are reducing RMD's adjusted operating profit to a new range of down $300 million to down $250 million from the prior range of down $50 million to flat versus 2021.

對於全年，我們現在預計 RMD 的訂單出貨比將達到或優於 1.2。由於持續的材料供應延遲以及相關的生產力影響和降低成本的行動，我們現在預計 RMD 銷售額將下降低個位數，而我們之前的預期是與 2021 年相比略有上升。並且由於銷售前景較低和較低為了提高計劃效率，我們將 RMD 的調整後營業利潤從之前的 5000 萬美元下調至 2.5 億美元的新範圍，與 2021 年持平。

With that, I'll turn it back to Neil.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給尼爾。

Thank you, Jennifer. A lot to cover there. I'm on Slide 8. While we aren't providing our '23 outlook today, let me tell you how I'm thinking about next year. Overall, we expect another year of organic sales and segment operating profit growth with solid free cash flow generation at RTX.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。有很多東西要覆蓋。我在幻燈片 8 上。雖然我們今天不提供 23 年的展望，但讓我告訴你我對明年的看法。總體而言，我們預計 RTX 將再有一年的有機銷售和部門營業利潤增長，並產生穩定的自由現金流。

On the positive side, we expect that commercial air traffic will continue to recover and the global demand for our defense products and technologies will remain strong. We expect to exit next year at or above 2019 levels for global air traffic, and the significant defense orders we have won should begin to convert to sales.

從積極的方面來看，我們預計商業空中交通將繼續復甦，全球對我們的國防產品和技術的需求將保持強勁。我們預計明年全球空中交通量將達到或高於 2019 年的水平，我們贏得的重要國防訂單應該開始轉化為銷售。

We will continue to drive operational excellence, and we are focused on improving our cost competitiveness. We're using the core operating system to align goals and drive targeted improvements with technology.

我們將繼續推動卓越運營，並專注於提高成本競爭力。我們正在使用核心操作系統來調整目標並通過技術推動有針對性的改進。

The collaboration across RTX has already yielded 180 approved projects with a growing pipeline of over 350 future projects, which are focused on smart factories, automation and machine upgrades that will apply best practices to further reduce our structural costs. We will leverage our scale, these additional cost reduction opportunities and pricing to help address the inflation pressures that we expect to remain elevated well into next year.

RTX 之間的合作已經產生了 180 個已獲批准的項目，未來項目將不斷增加，未來項目將超過 350 個，這些項目專注於智能工廠、自動化和機器升級，這些將應用最佳實踐來進一步降低我們的結構成本。我們將利用我們的規模、這些額外的成本降低機會和定價來幫助解決我們預計到明年仍將保持高位的通脹壓力。

And while we are working many actions across our businesses every day to mitigate the impacts of supply chain constraints and labor availability, as I said, we do expect these pressures will continue to persist into next year as well. Additionally, as we sit here today, we see pressure from increasing interest rates and market volatility and anticipate a pension headwind next year that could be about $0.40 on a year-over-year basis due to current market conditions.

正如我所說，雖然我們每天都在我們的業務中採取許多行動來減輕供應鏈限制和勞動力可用性的影響，但我們確實預計這些壓力也將持續到明年。此外，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們看到了來自利率上升和市場波動的壓力，並預計由於當前的市場狀況，明年的養老金逆風可能同比約為 0.40 美元。

That said, it's important to note that our U.S. plans remain well funded and have even seen an improvement in their funded status year-to-date. And of course, everyone is watching the geopolitical landscape, energy supply in Europe, the continuing resolution and the global tax environment.

也就是說，重要的是要注意，我們的美國計劃資金仍然充足，甚至在今年迄今的資金狀況方面有所改善。當然，每個人都在關注地緣政治格局、歐洲的能源供應、持續的決議和全球稅收環境。

So with that, let me hand it back to Greg for some closing remarks.

因此，讓我把它交還給 Greg 做一些結束語。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. So there's a lot going on, a lot of moving pieces. And I think the key takeaways that I hope people get from this is most importantly, our backlog is up $12 billion since the beginning of the year. And we're investing $9 billion this year to support the growth that's going to come over these next couple of years.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。所以有很多事情發生，很多動人的部分。我認為我希望人們從中獲得的關鍵收穫是，最重要的是，自今年年初以來，我們的積壓訂單增加了 120 億美元。我們今年將投資 90 億美元來支持未來幾年的增長。

The future remains absolutely bright for RTX. The 2025 commitments that we laid out a year ago may remain in sight. And we're not going to back off from any of those, be it top line, bottom line or cash flow.

RTX 的未來絕對是光明的。我們一年前製定的 2025 年承諾可能仍然存在。而且我們不會從任何這些中退縮，無論是頂線，底線還是現金流。

So Neil laid out 3 challenges that are out there, right, supply chain, right? It's a challenge. There's no doubt about it. We've got 13,000 suppliers. And of those 13,000, about 400 of them are a problem for us. But we've deployed teams to almost all of those suppliers to work with them on a daily basis, getting them raw material, giving them contract labor, giving them technical support, all of the things that you would expect us to be doing.

所以尼爾列出了三個挑戰，對吧，供應鏈，對吧？這是一個挑戰。毫無疑問。我們有 13,000 家供應商。在這 13,000 人中，大約有 400 人對我們來說是個問題。但我們已經向幾乎所有這些供應商部署了團隊，每天與他們合作，為他們提供原材料，為他們提供合同工，為他們提供技術支持，所有這些都是您希望我們做的事情。

On labor availability, it's a challenge. Everybody sees it, especially in the supply chain. And I think what's interesting for -- at RTX is we have hired 27,000 people in 2022. That's about 3,000 a month since the beginning of the year. Our total headcount today is over 180,000.

在勞動力可用性方面，這是一個挑戰。每個人都看到了這一點，尤其是在供應鏈中。我認為有趣的是——在 RTX，我們在 2022 年僱傭了 27,000 人。自今年年初以來，每月約有 3,000 人。我們今天的總員工人數超過 180,000 人。

The challenge though is we would need about 10,000 more people. So a lot of work yet to do on labor. It's out there. It's a great place to work. And people come to RTX because of the mission. And so we have a, I think, a very good pipeline. We'll continue to hire at this rate. And again, the challenge will be in the supply chain.

然而，挑戰是我們將需要大約 10,000 人。所以在勞動力方面還有很多工作要做。它在外面。這是一個工作的好地方。人們因為使命而來到 RTX。所以我們有一個，我認為，一個非常好的管道。我們將繼續以這個速度招聘。同樣，挑戰將出現在供應鏈中。

On inflation, we came into the year expecting about $1.5 billion of cost growth between compensation and what we saw in the supply chain and energy prices. That $1.5 billion has turned out to be closer to $2 billion, so about $500 million of additional headwind that we didn't expect as we came into the year.

在通貨膨脹方面，我們預計今年薪酬與供應鍊和能源價格之間的成本增長約為 15 億美元。事實證明，這 15 億美元接近 20 億美元，因此在我們進入這一年時，我們沒有預料到大約 5 億美元的額外逆風。

You couple that with about $200 million of headwind from the cessation of activities in Russia back in February, and there's about $700 million of headwind that we came into the year that we had to overcome. The good news is we have found ways to save.

再加上 2 月份俄羅斯停止活動帶來的約 2 億美元逆風，我們必須克服這一年約 7 億美元的逆風。好消息是我們找到了拯救的方法。

We have cut costs across the business. We've got about 500 cost reduction projects that we're currently working. And so despite that $700 million, we've been able to maintain guidance for the year just where we saw it back in January of this year.

我們已經削減了整個業務的成本。我們目前正在開展大約 500 個降低成本的項目。因此，儘管有 7 億美元，我們仍然能夠維持今年 1 月看到的當年指導。

So it's been a tough year. It's going to be a tough year going forward. We know that. We recognize it. But the fact is we have the tools and the people to make it all happen.

所以這是艱難的一年。未來將是艱難的一年。我們知道。我們承認它。但事實是我們擁有實現這一切的工具和人員。

So I'll stop there, and we'll turn it back to the operator, and we'll take whatever questions you might have.

所以我會停在那裡，我們會把它轉回給接線員，我們會回答你可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question coming from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Greg, maybe if you could just, at a high level, how you're thinking about -- I know you're not giving formal 2023 guidance, but just The Street is obviously expecting across-the-board growth. Would you kind of feel that commercial aerospace will continue to recover and obviously, defense, maybe you'll finally start to convert some of these wins and actually showing some top line growth? Just maybe just high level how you're thinking about '23.

格雷格，也許如果你能在高層次上考慮你的想法——我知道你沒有給出正式的 2023 年指導，但華爾街顯然期待全面增長。您是否會覺得商業航空航天將繼續復甦，顯然，國防，也許您最終會開始轉換其中的一些勝利並實際上顯示出一些收入增長？只是也許只是高水平你對 23 年的看法。

Yes. I think, Peter, you're exactly right. We expect strong growth on the commercial aerospace side to continue. RPMs will continue to recover back to the 2019 levels. And so we're going to see strong OE growth as Boeing and Airbus take up production rates. And we expect to see strong aftermarket growth as well, again, as airlines continue to add capacity and try and keep the planes they have flying. So commercial aero, I think it's all good for next year.

是的。我認為，彼得，你完全正確。我們預計商業航空領域將繼續強勁增長。 RPM 將繼續恢復到 2019 年的水平。因此，隨著波音和空中客車公司提高生產率，我們將看到強勁的 OE 增長。我們預計售後市場也將出現強勁增長，因為航空公司繼續增加運力並試圖保持他們的飛機飛行。所以商業航空，我認為明年一切都很好。

On the defense side, we will see some growth. It won't be as robust as we would like. I would tell you, it goes back to those challenges that we talked about. Really, it's about labor availability and some of the supply chain challenges. But we should start to -- again, we saw stabilization here in the third quarter in the supply chain.

在防守端，我們會看到一些增長。它不會像我們希望的那樣健壯。我會告訴你，這可以追溯到我們談到的那些挑戰。真的，這是關於勞動力的可用性和一些供應鏈挑戰。但是我們應該開始 - 再次，我們在第三季度看到供應鏈的穩定。

We've gotten a little bit better in terms of bringing material in, but we've got a long way to go. So that will be the governor, I would say. It's not the backlog. It's simply the availability of material coming in to the shops.

在引進材料方面，我們已經取得了一些進步，但我們還有很長的路要走。所以那將是州長，我會說。這不是積壓。這只是進入商店的材料的可用性。

Yes. Peter, the other point I would add from a sales perspective, everything Greg said, I agree with. And we do expect to see mid- to high single-digit sales growth in 2023. So good top line growth, as Greg mentioned.

是的。彼得，我從銷售的角度補充一點，格雷格所說的一切，我都同意。我們確實預計到 2023 年銷售額將出現中高個位數增長。正如 Greg 所說，收入增長非常好。

I do expect most of that to come from our commercial businesses. I think even more importantly, we'll see segment operating profit growth exceed the growth rate of sales. So we do expect margin expansion as well next year.

我確實希望其中大部分來自我們的商業業務。我認為更重要的是，我們將看到分部營業利潤的增長超過銷售額的增長率。因此，我們確實預計明年的利潤率也會有所增長。

And you heard me mention the pension headwind in my prepared remarks. We'll also have to normalize for a tax rate that will be a little bit higher as we come off of a year where we do expect R&D to be repealed into next year, at least that's our current planning assumption. So more to come on that. But just a few extra points on the 2023 outlook. We'll, of course, come back in January with a much better look at what the segments are going to look like.

你聽到我在準備好的講話中提到了養老金的逆風。我們還必須使稅率正常化，因為我們確實預計明年研發將被廢除，至少這是我們目前的計劃假設。所以還有更多的事情要做。但對 2023 年的展望只是多提幾點。當然，我們會在一月份回來，更好地了解這些細分市場的樣子。

And our next question coming from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

Obviously, what's happening with your defense top line is a little surprising, but it can largely be explained by industry-wide factors. I think the margins are maybe more surprising. And obviously, there's absorption from that top line impact, and we know there's inflation.

顯然，你的防守頂線發生的事情有點令人驚訝，但這在很大程度上可以用全行業的因素來解釋。我認為利潤率可能更令人驚訝。顯然，從頂線影響中吸收了，我們知道存在通貨膨脹。

But it's an industry where the margins really don't move around that quickly, and your peers aren't really seeing that much margin movement versus this kind of quarterly volatility we're seeing from you. So can you maybe just explain that a little further?

但這是一個利潤率真的不會那麼快移動的行業，與我們從你那裡看到的這種季度波動相比，你的同行並沒有真正看到那麼多的利潤率變動。所以你能不能再解釋一下？

And then when we look to next year, should we think about your defense segment margins being closer to the '22 level or closer to your longer-term targets?

然後，當我們展望明年時，我們應該考慮您的國防部門利潤率更接近 22 年的水平還是更接近您的長期目標？

I'll start with that one, Noah. I'm not going to comment on next year's margins. Right now, we're focused on making sure we get through the rest of this year. But a couple of thoughts on the margin profile.

我將從那個開始，諾亞。我不會評論明年的利潤率。現在，我們專注於確保我們度過今年剩下的時間。但是關於利潤概況的一些想法。

The first thing that's really dragging down the margins this year relative to our initial expectations are the lack of productivity. And that lack of productivity has principally been driven by the delay in material receipts, which is obviously jamming up the production and development cycles within the businesses, and it's most notable at RMD.

相對於我們最初的預期，今年真正拖累利潤率的第一件事是缺乏生產力。生產力的缺乏主要是由於材料收貨延遲造成的，這顯然阻礙了企業內的生產和開發週期，這在 RMD 最為明顯。

We've also talked about a mix shift in the products. RMD has gone through a product upgrade really across many of our platforms there. So that has had a negative impact on the margins overall. And certainly, we'll come through that as we turn into more production rate-type contracts.

我們還談到了產品的混合轉變。 RMD 已經在我們那裡的許多平台上進行了產品升級。因此，這對整體利潤率產生了負面影響。當然，當我們變成更多的生產率類型的合同時，我們會解決這個問題。

One thing that I'd say was encouraging during the quarter is last quarter, we had net productivity that was actually an expense, whereas sequentially, we're seeing about $140 million of favorability in productivity. So productivity for RIS and RMD was positive, albeit nowhere near the levels that we're used to. But we are starting to see some improvement there.

我想說的一件事在本季度令人鼓舞的是上個季度，我們的淨生產力實際上是一項支出，而從連續來看，我們看到了大約 1.4 億美元的生產力有利因素。因此，RIS 和 RMD 的生產力是積極的，儘管與我們習慣的水平相去甚遠。但我們開始看到那裡有所改善。

We've been adversely affected, to your point, on absorption as a result of that slowdown and the throughput that's coming through in the rates, which is causing that productivity to be muted from what we're used to seeing. I do expect as the volume starts to fill up the factories when we deliver that $67 billion of defense backlog, we will start to see improvements in productivity as well. Greg, I don't know if there's anything else you wanted to add to that.

就您而言，由於速度放緩和吞吐量下降，我們在吸收方面受到了不利影響，這導致生產力與我們過去看到的相比有所下降。我確實預計，當我們交付 670 億美元的國防積壓訂單時，隨著工廠的數量開始填滿，我們也將開始看到生產力的提高。格雷格，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的。

No, I think you pretty well covered it. I mean the other obvious issue is international sales, which tend to be more profitable on the defense side are down comparatively. And again, some of the newer contracts have much lower margins than what we had on some of the existing. As we transition from Patriot to LTAMDS production, you're going to see a big mix shift there or margin degradation for a couple of years until we get through the low rate initial production contracts.

不，我認為你很好地涵蓋了它。我的意思是另一個明顯的問題是國際銷售，在國防方面往往更有利可圖，但相對下降。再一次，一些較新的合同的利潤率比我們現有的一些合同要低得多。隨著我們從 Patriot 過渡到 LTAMDS 生產，在我們完成低利率初始生產合同之前，您將在那裡看到一個巨大的混合轉變或幾年的利潤率下降。

And our next question coming from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Neil, I wanted to ask about comms profitability. Guidance implies that margins inflect up 200 bps in Q4 versus about a 12% rate year-to-date on margins. How do you think about the bridge and some of the drivers there as we exit the year? And maybe if you could comment on price and mix actions as well.

尼爾，我想問一下通訊的盈利能力。指引暗示，第四季度利潤率上升 200 個基點，而年初至今的利潤率約為 12%。當我們退出這一年時，你如何看待這座橋和那裡的一些司機？也許你也可以評論價格和混合行動。

I'm sorry, the last part, Sheila?

對不起，最後一部分，希拉？

Just price and mix as we head into 2023.

進入 2023 年，只需定價和組合。

Sure. Yes. And so we've already seen substantial Collins margin expansion as we've gone through the first 9 months of the year. And I expect as the wide-body international traffic recovers, we will continue to see a broadening of the margins at Collins. I'm pretty pleased with the trajectory that they're on.

當然。是的。因此，在今年前 9 個月，我們已經看到柯林斯的利潤率大幅增長。我預計，隨著寬體國際客運量的恢復，我們將繼續看到柯林斯的利潤率不斷擴大。我對他們的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

They've been doing a great job controlling costs as well, and they'll do more of that here in the fourth quarter. As you look out into next year, we've talked about some of the pricing actions that we've already taken in our Pratt & Whitney business, Collins and our Pratt Canada business.

他們在控製成本方面也做得很好，他們將在第四季度做得更多。展望明年，我們已經討論了我們在普惠公司、柯林斯和普惠加拿大業務中已經採取的一些定價措施。

We'll also introduce revised pricing as we usually do at the beginning of the year. So we do expect that to be considerably higher than what we've seen in the past, reflecting the inflation that we're dealing with across the business. So we're attacking both price and cost as we look at the business going forward.

我們還將像通常在年初所做的那樣引入修訂後的定價。因此，我們確實預計這將比我們過去看到的要高得多，這反映了我們在整個企業中應對的通貨膨脹。因此，當我們展望未來的業務時，我們正在攻擊價格和成本。

So a number of projects in the pipeline that all of the businesses and Collins, in particular, are looking at. And as I think I said a few -- a couple of months ago, many of the projects that we have looked at around footprint consolidation and automation and digitization of our factories are much more attractive with the inflationary pressures that we're seeing today. So those 350 projects that I alluded to, we're ready to move forward on those and make sure that we structurally change the cost profile of our business going forward.

因此，所有企業，尤其是柯林斯，都在關注許多正在籌備中的項目。正如我想我所說的那樣——幾個月前，我們圍繞足跡整合、自動化和工廠數字化研究的許多項目在我們今天看到的通脹壓力下更具吸引力。因此，我提到的那些 350 個項目，我們已準備好推進這些項目，並確保我們在結構上改變我們未來業務的成本狀況。

Should we assume it's a 35%, 40% incremental margin business going forward?

我們是否應該假設這是一個 35%、40% 的增量利潤業務？

I think getting out of this year, you'll start to see muted incrementals because the compares get a little more challenging. But clearly, we're on our way back to the 20% margins that we committed to at our Investor Day back in 2021.

我認為今年結束後，您將開始看到溫和的增量，因為比較變得更具挑戰性。但顯然，我們正在回到我們在 2021 年投資者日承諾的 20% 利潤率的路上。

And our next question coming from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自於垂直研究合作夥伴的 Robert Stallard。

Greg, on the defense side of things, particularly RMD, you're in this sort of interesting situation where defense -- sorry, demand is clearly very strong, but supply continues to be constrained. How do you see this panning out from here? When will these 2 come into equilibrium? And are you seeing any help from your customers in getting this fixed?

格雷格，在防守方面，特別是 RMD，你處於這種有趣的情況下，防守——抱歉，需求顯然非常強勁，但供應繼續受到限制。你如何看待這一切從這裡開始？這兩個什麼時候達到平衡？您是否從客戶那裡得到任何幫助來解決這個問題？

Yes. Look, I think we're all in this together. And as we sit here in Washington and we're going to be talking to the folks at DoD tomorrow, there is concern about the supply chain challenges as we are. And they're putting DPAS ratings on many things to try and move up in the queue with the supply chain.

是的。看，我想我們都在一起。當我們坐在華盛頓，明天我們將與國防部的人們交談時，我們對供應鏈挑戰感到擔憂。他們正在對許多事情進行 DPAS 評級，以嘗試與供應鏈一起排在隊列中。

But the challenge, and again, it's not just defense. I mean I go to the -- on Pratt structural castings, we've been talking about it all year, still remain a challenge. And it's not necessarily a capacity issue. It's a labor availability. I mean how do you get trained welders working efficiently?

但挑戰，再一次，不僅僅是防守。我的意思是我去 - 關於普拉特結構鑄件，我們一整年都在談論它，仍然是一個挑戰。這不一定是容量問題。這是勞動力的可用性。我的意思是你如何讓訓練有素的焊工有效地工作？

And it's -- that remains a challenge. As I think about this though, we saw about a 5% incremental improvement in our build or kit efficiencies this quarter. That's -- we had hoped to be about 10 points higher than that. We -- by the end of the year, we hope to be at 80%. We're not going to get there. I think if we're lucky, we'll get to about a 70% kit fill rate by the end of the year, which is the reason why we had to take RMD sales guidance down.

這仍然是一個挑戰。不過，當我想到這一點時，我們看到本季度我們的構建或套件效率增加了約 5%。那是 - 我們曾希望比這高出大約 10 個點。我們 - 到今年年底，我們希望達到 80%。我們不會到達那裡。我認為，如果我們幸運的話，到今年年底我們將達到 70% 的套件填充率，這就是我們不得不降低 RMD 銷售指導的原因。

I do think, as we're looking through this, that by the end of next year, we should start to see some of this abate. Again, because the economy is slowing down, more people available in the supply chain to work.

我確實認為，當我們正在考慮這個問題時，到明年年底，我們應該會開始看到這種情況有所減弱。同樣，由於經濟放緩，供應鏈中有更多人可以工作。

But some things like rocket motors, we literally do not see a recovery path there to -- on contract until sometime in the first half of 2024. So this is not a short-term fix. And I think we're fully prepared that next year is going to be kind of a hand to mouth on the supply chain.

但是有些東西，比如火箭發動機，我們實際上看不到恢復的路徑——直到 2024 年上半年的某個時候才能簽訂合同。所以這不是一個短期的解決辦法。而且我認為我們已經做好充分準備，明年將在供應鏈上進行面對面的交流。

As I said in the opening comments, we have worked with like the chip manufacturers, the OE, the OEMs to get some assured supply, and that seems to be working. The offset of that, of course, is there's a lot of inventory sitting here. We've added about $1.1 billion of inventory for the year to make sure that we do have the things that we need to build these products. So long-winded answer, it's not over yet, and I think it's going to be most of 2023 before we really get out of the woods on the supply chain.

正如我在開場評論中所說，我們與芯片製造商、原始設備製造商、原始設備製造商等合作以獲得一些有保障的供應，這似乎正在奏效。當然，抵消這一點的是這裡有很多庫存。今年我們增加了大約 11 億美元的庫存，以確保我們確實擁有製造這些產品所需的東西。如此冗長的答案，還沒有結束，我認為要到 2023 年的大部分時間，我們才能真正走出供應鏈的困境。

And our next question coming from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Maybe switching gears a little bit, and I'm certain everybody is going to focus on RMD. Greg, if you could maybe discuss a little bit, when you think about aircraft propulsion technology, you guys have the geared platform. Your primary competitor is working on an unducted fan.

也許稍微換個檔次，我敢肯定每個人都會專注於 RMD。格雷格，如果你可以討論一下，當你想到飛機推進技術時，你們有齒輪平台。您的主要競爭對手正在研究無管道風扇。

What -- how many -- how much -- what legs does the gear have? I mean where can we go to from here? How much of a threat is an unducted fan? And then if we go one step beyond that to hybrid propulsion, that sort of thing, when do you see all that happening?

什麼——多少——多少——裝備有什麼腿？我的意思是我們可以從這裡去哪裡？無管道風扇的威脅有多大？然後，如果我們再往前走一步，到混合動力推進，諸如此類的事情，你什麼時候會看到這一切發生的？

A long time from now. Let's be clear, right? We're just introducing the Advantage engine, the A320 or the 1100 GTF Advantage engine. That will go into service in 2024. That will have a very long life cycle, like 30 years on it.

從現在開始很久了。讓我們說清楚，對吧？我們只是介紹 Advantage 引擎、A320 或 1100 GTF Advantage 引擎。這將在 2024 年投入使用。這將有一個非常長的生命週期，比如 30 年。

Over the next 20 years, I think what you're going to see, Ron, and you know this, there's going to be an evolution probably towards hybrid electric propulsion at least in regional jet and turboprop markets. We have yet to find a way to make the case for long-range propulsion with anything other than Jet A.

在接下來的 20 年裡，我想你會看到什麼，羅恩，你知道這一點，至少在支線噴氣式飛機和渦輪螺旋槳飛機市場上，可能會朝著混合電力推進方向發展。我們還沒有找到一種方法來證明使用 Jet A 以外的任何東西進行遠程推進。

And that's the challenge. I mean we're talking -- we're working with hydrogen. We're working with ammonia. We're working with a number of different things to improve efficiency.

這就是挑戰。我的意思是我們正在談論 - 我們正在使用氫氣。我們正在研究氨。我們正在處理許多不同的事情來提高效率。

SAF is an interesting option. It's not carbon-free, really depending upon the feedstocks. So that's -- again, that will help in terms of the emissions mandate, but it's not the solution. So I think we're investing a lot of money today in these advanced technologies.

SAF 是一個有趣的選擇。它不是無碳的，實際上取決於原料。這就是——再一次，這將有助於排放任務，但這不是解決方案。所以我認為我們今天在這些先進技術上投入了大量資金。

And we've got a project, as you know, between Collins and Pratt to do a hybrid electric demonstrator on a regional turboprop. But again, I think those technologies are 15 or 20 years out.

如您所知，我們在柯林斯和普拉特之間有一個項目，要在區域渦輪螺旋槳發動機上進行混合動力演示。但同樣，我認為這些技術需要 15 或 20 年才能實現。

We're going to focus now on kind of incremental improvements in the gear. And the gear is not done, right? I mean the gear, we've always said this, it can scale up, it can scale down. And we've got a great family of engines today.

我們現在將專注於齒輪的漸進式改進。而且裝備還沒做好，對吧？我的意思是齒輪，我們一直這麼說，它可以放大，也可以縮小。今天我們有一個很棒的引擎系列。

And I think -- as we think about next-generation single aisle whenever that is, probably 2030, we're going to have, I would say, the next evolution of the gear. But it's still going to be jet engine as you see it today with Jet A. Maybe it's all SAF, but it's still the same turbomachinery that we're talking about today.

而且我認為 - 當我們考慮下一代單通道時，可能是 2030 年，我會說，我們將擁有齒輪的下一次演變。但它仍然是噴氣發動機，正如你今天在 Jet A 上看到的那樣。也許都是 SAF，但它仍然是我們今天談論的渦輪機械。

And our next question coming from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

I wanted to see if you could give some initial thoughts on free cash flow in 2023. It looks like 2022 free cash flow will grow about $1 billion. That's the R&D hit. So I guess, Neil, obviously, you're talking about probably close to $1 billion of EBIT growth.

我想看看你能否對 2023 年的自由現金流給出一些初步的想法。看起來 2022 年的自由現金流將增長約 10 億美元。這就是研發的成功。所以我猜，尼爾，很明顯，你說的是可能接近 10 億美元的息稅前利潤增長。

But I think you have a bit of a pension, pension CAS headwind. Not sure what you're expecting for working capital. So maybe some help with the moving pieces on '23 through cash flow.

但我認為你有一點養老金，養老金 CAS 逆風。不確定您對營運資金的期望。因此，也許可以通過現金流對 23 年的活動有所幫助。

Thanks, David. I'll keep this at a high level, but certainly back -- coming in January, I'll give you a little more details. But with the operating profit growth, we would expect that to convert to free cash flow. I expect a little bit of headwind on capital as that inches up just a tad as we finish off some of these large investments, particularly an upgrade of our facilities in Texas at the RIS business as well as the completion of the Asheville facility for Pratt.

謝謝，大衛。我將把它保持在一個高水平，但肯定會回來——在一月份，我會給你更多的細節。但隨著營業利潤的增長，我們預計這將轉化為自由現金流。我預計資本會出現一點阻力，因為隨著我們完成其中一些大型投資，特別是升級我們在德克薩斯州的 RIS 業務設施以及完成 Pratt 的阿什維爾設施，這會稍微增加一點點。

However, a couple of other moving pieces. Working capital, I expect we'll see inventory to continue to grow. We'll try to manage that through payables and other parts of our working capital. But certainly, we need the inventory with all the constraints that we faced in the supply chain this year. We want to make sure we're prepared to deliver on the growing aftermarket and growing OE business that we'll see.

但是，還有其他一些動人的作品。營運資金，我預計我們會看到庫存繼續增長。我們將嘗試通過應付賬款和營運資金的其他部分來管理這一點。但可以肯定的是，我們需要今年在供應鏈中面臨的所有限制的庫存。我們希望確保我們準備好交付我們將看到的不斷增長的售後市場和不斷增長的 OE 業務。

Long story short, I do expect free cash flow to grow organically. We'll also -- we're anticipating a refund of the tax payments that we're making this year, again, assuming that the -- there is ultimately a repeal of the R&D capitalization provision. So let me leave it at that for now. But certainly, in January, we'll provide a better walk.

長話短說，我確實希望自由現金流有機地增長。我們還將 - 我們再次期待我們今年支付的稅款的退還，假設 - 最終廢除了研發資本化條款。所以讓我暫時擱置它。但可以肯定的是，在一月份，我們會提供更好的步行。

And a quick follow-up on pension, the $0.40. Is that $0.40 incremental versus this year? I think you were already anticipating kind of a $0.10 incremental hit. Is that $0.40 incremental to that or just $0.40 incremental for this year?

以及對養老金的快速跟進，即 0.40 美元。與今年相比，這是 0.40 美元的增量嗎？我想你已經預料到了 0.10 美元的增量打擊。是增加 0.40 美元還是今年僅增加 0.40 美元？

No. It's $0.30 incremental to the $0.10 we had already forecasted. And that's really driven by asset returns being below our EROA as well as rising interest rates causing higher interest expense. So more to come. We obviously threw all those assumptions up at the end of the year, but that's where we see it as of today.

不。它比我們已經預測的 0.10 美元增加了 0.30 美元。這實際上是由於資產回報低於我們的 EROA 以及利率上升導致更高的利息費用。所以還有更多。我們顯然在年底提出了所有這些假設，但這就是我們今天看到的地方。

I do not expect that to be a major cash issue for us. And if there are any future FAS funding requirements, those will be offset by higher CAS recoveries in the future. So not a cash issue, but a P&L issue right now.

我不認為這對我們來說是一個主要的現金問題。如果未來有任何 FAS 資金需求，這些將被未來更高的 CAS 回收率所抵消。所以不是現金問題，而是現在的損益問題。

And our next question coming from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about Pratt for a second and strong results in the quarter. Been running about $300 million of profit per quarter year-to-date. I think the guidance is basically for a step down to $250 million or a little bit below that in the fourth quarter.

我想知道你是否可以談談普拉特在本季度的第二個和強勁的業績。年初至今，每季度的利潤約為 3 億美元。我認為該指導基本上是在第四季度降至 2.5 億美元或略低於該水平。

Now I'm sure when I ask about that, you're going to talk about higher engine deliveries. But I mean, I think there was a price increase as well for spares. And so how do we think about that evolution of Pratt, why it comes down so much in the fourth quarter as well as where it goes from here and how much progress Pratt can make in '23 toward the out-year margin target that you have?

現在我敢肯定，當我問這個問題時，你會談論更高的發動機交付量。但我的意思是，我認為備件的價格也會上漲。那麼我們如何看待普拉特的演變，為什麼它在第四季度下降如此之多，以及它從這裡開始的地方以及普拉特在 23 年朝著你所擁有的年度利潤率目標可以取得多少進展?

So you hit the nail on the head. It's -- as you look sequentially from Q3 into Q4, most of the degradation, if you will, the step-down in that profit is higher commercial engine shipments which, as we've been talking about, have been kind of pushed to the back end of the year. So that's really the major driver of what you see in terms of the walk from Q3 to Q4 on op profit.

所以你一針見血。這是 - 從第三季度到第四季度，大部分的降級，如果你願意的話，利潤的下降是更高的商業發動機出貨量，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，已經被推到了年底。因此，這確實是您所看到的從第三季度到第四季度運營利潤的主要驅動力。

As we look out a little further, I'm not going to get into specific numbers, but we certainly expect OE deliveries in the large engine business to step up next year aligned with our customer requirements. And I do expect we'll see some movement towards the margin goals that Pratt put out there 1.5 years ago.

當我們進一步觀察時，我不會進入具體數字，但我們當然希望大型發動機業務的 OE 交付量在明年與我們的客戶要求保持一致。我確實希望我們會看到朝著普拉特 1.5 年前提出的利潤目標邁進。

There's a long ways to go here, but a lot of that will be fueled by a growing aftermarket, the recovery on the V2500s. We've also seen considerable strength in the PW2000s and 4000s. Recall that about 40% of that fleet powers cargo aircraft. So continues to be really strong there.

這裡還有很長的路要走，但其中很大一部分將受到不斷增長的售後市場的推動，即 V2500 的複蘇。我們還在 PW2000 和 4000 中看到了相當大的實力。回想一下，大約 40% 的機隊為貨機提供動力。所以在那裡仍然非常強大。

And of course, the GTF will turn to profit. And we will see -- on the aftermarket side, we will see the shop visits begin as we get through next year and into the middle of the decade. So Pratt is positioned to expand the margins. There's still a lot of work to do.

當然，GTF 會轉虧為盈。我們將看到 - 在售後市場方面，我們將看到從明年到本世紀中期的商店參觀開始。因此，普拉特的定位是擴大利潤。還有很多工作要做。

Greg talked about some of the incremental cost reduction actions that they're taking. They're going through an exhaustive review of every element of the business in terms of driving out both SG&A as well as structural operational costs in the manufacturing facility. So I find it encouraging, but I'm not going to commit to some numbers today, but we'll get that out there again in January, and you'll see that in full transparency then.

Greg 談到了他們正在採取的一些增量成本降低行動。他們正在對業務的每個要素進行詳盡的審查，以消除製造設施中的 SG&A 和結構性運營成本。所以我覺得這很令人鼓舞，但我今天不會承諾一些數字，但我們會在 1 月份再次公佈，屆時你會看到完全透明的。

Great. Just if I could follow up real quickly, the military part of Pratt has been down this year. Can that stabilize or grow again in '23?

偉大的。如果我能很快跟進，普拉特的軍事部分今年已經下降了。能否在 23 年穩定或再次增長？

I think it can, yes. It's been down as we planned for lower F135 deliveries. That's been partially offset by growing sustainment revenues, and we've talked about that aftermarket for the F135 engine will continue to grow in the future as well. So we should see that stabilize.

我認為可以，是的。由於我們計劃降低 F135 的交付量，它已經下降。這部分被不斷增長的維持收入所抵消，我們已經談到 F135 發動機的售後市場也將在未來繼續增長。所以我們應該看到穩定。

Similarly at Collins, military is down mid-single digits for the year. I do expect same phenomena to begin as we turn the page into 2023.

同樣在柯林斯，今年的軍費下降了中個位數。我確實希望當我們將這一頁翻到 2023 年時，同樣的現像也會開始。

And our next question coming from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Neil, I think you mentioned fourth quarter cash would be driven by lower tax payments in several large international receipts. And I just wonder on the international receipt portion, are you awaiting government approvals? Is there a timing risk here? And is that -- are those international receipts tied to the fourth quarter, mid-13% targeted margin you're looking for at RMD?

尼爾，我認為您提到第四季度的現金將受到幾項大型國際收入的較低稅收的推動。我只是想知道國際收據部分，您在等待政府批准嗎？這裡有時間風險嗎？那是 - 這些國際收入是否與第四季度相關，您在 RMD 中尋找的目標利潤率為 13% 中？

So great question. The international cash receipts are not tied to the margin in the fourth quarter. However, every international advance is subject to some risk. And there's a couple of very large ones here.

這麼好的問題。國際現金收入與第四季度的利潤率無關。然而，每一次國際進步都存在一定的風險。這裡有幾個非常大的。

I believe that we have line of sight to get them within the year. But if it's not within the year, it's certainly just timing. But certainly a watch item for us, not subject to government approval. But certainly a watch item for us, and hence, the reason I called it out there in the script as we look at the rest of the year.

我相信我們有視線在年內得到它們。但如果不是在一年之內，那肯定只是時機。但肯定是我們的手錶項目，不受政府批准。但對我們來說肯定是一個手錶項目，因此，當我們看到今年剩下的時間時，我在劇本中把它叫出來的原因。

But I do feel good about the rest of our actions to drive free cash flow. We had very, very strong cash flow, notwithstanding the $1.5 billion payment. Tax payments will be less, obviously, in the fourth quarter as we make the rest of the payment we're required to make to meet the new law for R&D.

但我確實對我們推動自由現金流的其他行動感覺良好。儘管支付了 15 億美元，但我們的現金流非常非常強勁。顯然，第四季度的稅收將減少，因為我們支付了我們為滿足新的研發法律而需要支付的其餘款項。

Okay. And Greg, just a high level, the U.S. review of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, any expectation there in terms of impact on your business?

好的。還有格雷格，只是一個高級別的，美國對美國與沙特關係的審查，對您的業務的影響有什麼期望嗎？

Right now, we follow the lead of the DoD state on sales to Saudi Arabia. We still continue to work with Saudi Arabia and especially on the defensive side. I think it's important. We've had a very long-term relationship with the Saudis.

目前，我們在向沙特阿拉伯銷售方面跟隨國防部的領導。我們仍將繼續與沙特阿拉伯合作，尤其是在防守端。我認為這很重要。我們與沙特人有著非常長期的關係。

And again, the key for us is providing the Saudis with defensive capabilities. And primarily, that means GEM-T missiles for the Patriot antimissile, anti-aircraft battery. So we have not seen any impact from some of the talk in Washington about suspending arm sales.

同樣，我們的關鍵是為沙特人提供防禦能力。首先，這意味著用於愛國者反導彈、防空砲台的 GEM-T 導彈。因此，我們沒有看到華盛頓關於暫停軍售的一些談話有任何影響。

Just to, again, put it in perspective, it's about 1.7% of our total sales go to Saudi Arabia. It's not a big number. But I think it's an important ally. And I believe that we'll get through this difficult time that we're seeing right now in terms of diplomatic relations because ultimately, they are a staunch ally in the Middle East and a key player in Middle Eastern stability.

再說一遍，我們的總銷售額中約有 1.7% 銷往沙特阿拉伯。這不是一個大數字。但我認為這是一個重要的盟友。而且我相信，我們將度過我們現在在外交關係方面看到的困難時期，因為最終，他們是中東的堅定盟友，也是中東穩定的關鍵角色。

And our next question coming from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Neil and Greg, you highlighted inflation as a continuing challenge as you look out to 2023. I mean that said, right, you're also expecting margins to expand next year. Can you provide more color on the moving pieces of how much inflation you're able to pass through to customers? How much you can offset with lower cost? And how we should think about that remaining exposure?

Neil 和 Greg，你們在展望 2023 年時強調了通貨膨脹是一個持續的挑戰。我的意思是說，對，你們也預計明年的利潤率會擴大。您能否提供更多關於您能夠傳遞給客戶的通貨膨脹的移動部分的顏色？你可以用更低的成本抵消多少？我們應該如何考慮剩餘的曝光？

So Kristine, there's a lot of moving pieces here. And obviously, our crystal ball is not terribly clear as to where inflation is going. But I do think it's going to persist at elevated levels as we go into 2023, and that's what we're planning for.

所以克里斯汀，這裡有很多動人的作品。顯然，我們的水晶球並不清楚通貨膨脹的去向。但我確實認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年，它將持續保持較高水平，這就是我們的計劃。

And so we, fortunately, have a good portion of our supply base is committed under long-term agreements. But as you know, those continue to roll over. And we're looking at long-term pricing solutions and working with our suppliers to beat back some of those price increase requests.

因此，幸運的是，我們有很大一部分供應基礎是根據長期協議承諾的。但如你所知，那些繼續翻滾。我們正在尋找長期定價解決方案，並與我們的供應商合作，以抵制其中一些提價請求。

On the top line, I talked about the pricing actions that we've begun to take that we take every year. But they are significantly larger than our historical pricing increases in the commercial aftermarket business.

最重要的是，我談到了我們每年開始採取的定價行動。但它們明顯大於我們在商業售後市場業務中的歷史定價增長。

And on the defense side, we're able to pass a lot of that through to our government customer as we set up new contracts with them and update our forward pricing rate. So we're working through all of that. I'm not going to put a number on it, but Greg talked about the level of inflation we've seen this year, and I expect it to be even larger next year. So it's going to require even more projects.

在國防方面，當我們與他們簽訂新合同並更新我們的遠期定價率時，我們能夠將其中的大部分傳遞給我們的政府客戶。所以我們正在努力解決所有這些問題。我不打算給出一個數字，但格雷格談到了我們今年看到的通脹水平，我預計明年會更大。所以這將需要更多的項目。

We've got all of those in process right now. The teams are working very aggressively to accelerate the savings from those projects. And many of them were started years ago, and they were starting to bear fruit in terms of the digitization that we're undertaking across the company, upgrades of our systems and improvement of information flow around the company. So a lot of actions, a lot of singles, some doubles. But it's going to take a lot of work here for us to mitigate a sustained level of 6%, 7%, 8% types of inflation rates.

我們現在所有這些都在處理中。團隊正在非常積極地工作，以加速這些項目的節省。其中許多是幾年前開始的，並且在我們在整個公司進行的數字化、我們的系統升級和公司周圍信息流的改進方面開始取得成果。所以很多動作，很多單打，一些雙打。但是，我們需要做很多工作才能緩解持續水平的 6%、7%、8% 的通貨膨脹率。

Yes, Kristine, just to add to that. I think the biggest inflationary impact really comes in compensation. So we spend roughly $20 billion a year in compensation. And every year, for the last 10 years, we've targeted somewhere around 3% or 3.5% increases.

是的，克里斯汀，只是補充一下。我認為最大的通脹影響確實來自補償。因此，我們每年花費大約 200 億美元作為補償。每年，在過去的 10 年裡，我們的目標是增加 3% 或 3.5% 左右。

We're obviously seeing more pressure on compensation, given what's going on in the marketplace today. But the fact is, this is not new. And we are always looking for productivity improvements, productivity improvements in the factories, productivity in the back-office functions and everything that we do.

鑑於當今市場上的情況，我們顯然看到了更大的賠償壓力。但事實是，這並不新鮮。我們一直在尋求提高生產力、提高工廠的生產力、提高後台職能的生產力以及我們所做的一切。

So it's a concerted effort. I'm not, again, terribly concerned about the impact on margins just because I know that we know how to take cost out of the business. Some of it we get to pass on, as Neil said, through our overhead rates to our government customers.

所以是齊心協力。同樣，我並不非常擔心對利潤率的影響，因為我知道我們知道如何將成本從業務中剔除。正如尼爾所說，我們可以通過我們的間接費用將其中一些傳遞給我們的政府客戶。

And we're also, I think, being aggressive on pricing on the commercial side of the business. So we've got a lot of levers. Inflation, hopefully, it's -- I won't even use the word transitory because I think that's been proven a myth. But it will be here for a while. So we're going to continue to look for ways to drive cost out and to pass cost on. And I think that's just what we do every day.

我認為，我們也在業務的商業方面積極定價。所以我們有很多槓桿。通貨膨脹，希望是——我什至不會使用暫時性這個詞，因為我認為這已被證明是一個神話。但它會在這裡一段時間。因此，我們將繼續尋找降低成本和轉嫁成本的方法。我認為這正是我們每天都在做的事情。

And our next question coming from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So you indicated that you're going to do at least $2.5 billion in share repurchase for the year even though the cash flows impacted by Section 174. If 174 is pushed out, you clearly get a windfall to cash flow next year. How should we think about share repurchase given that your longer-term outlook really looks pretty good? And if you do get 174 pushed out, you're going to have a lot of firepower.

是的。因此，您表示即使現金流受到第 174 條的影響，您今年仍將進行至少 25 億美元的股票回購。如果推出 174，您顯然會在明年獲得現金流的意外之財。鑑於您的長期前景看起來確實不錯，我們應該如何看待股票回購？而且，如果您確實將 174 推出，那麼您將擁有強大的火力。

Yes, Cai, obviously, the Section 174 nonsense is a little disconcerting because we're hoping, again, we're going to get a tax law change here at the end of the year with tax extenders which, as you know, will give us a refund of the $1.5 billion that we've already paid sometime in the first quarter of next year -- I guess, April, actually.

是的，蔡，顯然，第 174 條的廢話有點令人不安，因為我們再次希望，我們將在今年年底通過增稅措施來改變稅法，如你所知，這將給予我們退還了我們在明年第一季度某個時候已經支付的 15 億美元——我猜實際上是 4 月。

But the fact is, as we think about share buyback, we are firmly committed to the $20 billion of capital return. This year, we said $2.5 billion plus. I suspect next year that will -- that number will look like a $3 billion-plus number.

但事實是，當我們考慮股票回購時，我們堅定地致力於 200 億美元的資本回報。今年，我們說超過 25 億美元。我懷疑明年會——這個數字看起來會超過 30 億美元。

And again, the timing of that will really depend upon when we see the cash, if we do, from this Section 174 repeal. But again, I think you can count on us to continue to be aggressive in share buyback along with continue to increase the dividend each year.

再說一次，這個時間真的取決於我們什麼時候看到現金，如果我們看到的話，從第 174 條廢除。但同樣，我認為您可以指望我們繼續積極進行股票回購，並每年繼續增加股息。

But how much of that share of $3 billion plus would you do if Section 174 is not repealed?

但是，如果不廢除第 174 條，你會在這 30 億美元以上的份額中做多少？

We'd still do $3 billion. We have programmed this in for the next couple of years to hit that $20 billion target. Keep in mind, this Section 174 is a timing issue. And eventually, we do get the deductions. In fact, next year, we'll get it to deduct 20% of what we deferred this year, but it is a timing.

我們仍然會做 30 億美元。我們已經在接下來的幾年中對此進行了編程，以實現 200 億美元的目標。請記住，第 174 條是一個時間問題。最終，我們確實得到了扣除。事實上，明年，我們將讓它扣除我們今年延期的 20%，但這是一個時機。

And by 2025, most of the impact of this has abated because of the ability to amortize most of this. So again, while it's important, it's not going to really change capital allocation in terms of what we have committed to.

到 2025 年，由於能夠攤銷其中大部分費用，大部分影響已經減弱。再說一遍，雖然它很重要，但不會真正改變我們承諾的資本配置。

And our last question coming from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital.

最後一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Ken Herbert。

I just wanted to see if you could provide a little bit more color on Pratt & Whitney. You have 14% sequentially in the aftermarket. Can you just talk about where that was from? How much was maybe volume versus price?

我只是想看看你能不能在 Pratt & Whitney 上提供更多的色彩。您在售後市場擁有 14% 的份額。能說說出處嗎？數量與價格的關係可能是多少？

And how should we think about where you are, specifically in the V2500 sort of shop visit recovery? Because I know that's, obviously, a big part of the story this year and next year. And how much growth did you see in the shop visits this year? And how do we think about that in the next year?

我們應該如何考慮您的位置，特別是在 V2500 類型的商店訪問恢復中？因為我知道這顯然是今年和明年故事的重要組成部分。今年的商店訪問量增長了多少？我們如何看待明年？

Thanks, Ken. So a couple of thoughts. Most of what you're seeing at Pratt through the third quarter is really just volume. And we've talked about the shop visits going up about 20% on a full year basis. We saw about a 10% growth here in the third quarter.

謝謝，肯。所以有幾個想法。您在第三季度在 Pratt 看到的大部分內容實際上只是數量。我們已經談到商店訪問量全年增長約 20%。我們在第三季度看到了大約 10% 的增長。

I think we've got a pretty good line of sight to the fourth quarter at this point. So I think the 20% up year-over-year still sticks. The other element of the aftermarket that Pratt is seeing is higher content per shop visit, which again was expected for us to see that as these aircraft are now flying at much greater and sustained levels than they were over the last couple of years. So good story on the aftermarket, but I don't think any of the pricing actions have yet to kind of flow through in the results reported to date.

我認為此時我們已經對第四季度有了很好的了解。所以我認為20%的同比增長仍然存在。 Pratt 看到的售後市場的另一個元素是每次商店訪問的內容更高，這再次讓我們看到，因為這些飛機現在的飛行水平比過去幾年更高和持續的水平。售後市場的故事非常好，但我認為迄今為止報告的結果中還沒有任何定價行動。

Great. And the pricing actions just real quick, I think as those flow through for 2023, if I understand properly, you're looking at a little more step-up in pricing than you realized in '22, correct?

偉大的。而且定價行動真的很快，我認為隨著 2023 年的實施，如果我理解正確，你正在尋找比你在 22 年意識到的更多的定價，對嗎？

That is true. Keep in mind, a number of our customers have contracts in place as well. So some of that increase is muted, but there's a number of them that do not. And you will see that drop through, and that will help to offset some of the headwinds that we're dealing with there as well.

那是真實的。請記住，我們的一些客戶也簽訂了合同。因此，其中一些增長是靜音的，但其中有一些沒有。你會看到這種下降，這將有助於抵消我們在那里處理的一些不利因素。

I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Hayes for closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Greg Hayes 先生以作結束髮言。

Okay. Thank you, Livia, and thank you all for listening in. Just a reminder, Jennifer and team will be available today to take on your questions.

好的。謝謝 Livia，也感謝大家的收聽。提醒一下，Jennifer 和團隊今天將有空回答您的問題。

Also just a note, this is Erin Somers' last earnings call with us. She is moving on to be CFO of our international business for RMD. So congratulations, Erin, if you guys are talking to her later today.

另外請注意，這是 Erin Somers 與我們的最後一次財報電話會議。她將繼續擔任 RMD 國際業務的首席財務官。恭喜你，艾琳，如果你們今天晚些時候和她說話。

Thank you all for listening, and we'll see you soon. Take care.

謝謝大家的收聽，我們很快再見。小心。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。大家，有一個美好的一天。