雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ludi, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。歡迎來到雷神科技 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫路迪，今天我就是你的接線員。提醒一下，正在錄製本次會議以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from the Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.

今天的電話會議是董事長兼首席執行官 Greg Hayes；尼爾·米切爾，首席財務官；和投資者關係副總裁詹妮弗·里德（Jennifer Reed）。該電話正在互聯網上進行直播，並且可以從 Raytheon Technologies 的網站 www.rtx.com 下載演示文稿。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition, accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTC's SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括收購、會計調整和淨非經常性和/或重要項目，通常被管理層稱為其他重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。 RTC 向 SEC 提交的文件，包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的結果大不相同的重要因素。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給海斯先生。

Thank you, Ludi, and good morning, everybody. Before I get into the results, I just want to spend a minute to address the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I know it's first and center on everybody's mind. It's obviously been devastating to see these tragic events unfold, and our thoughts and prayers are with the Ukrainian people.

謝謝你，Ludi，大家早上好。在我進入結果之前，我只想花一分鐘來解決俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的問題。我知道這是第一位的，並且以每個人的想法為中心。看到這些悲慘事件的發生顯然是毀滅性的，我們的思念和祈禱與烏克蘭人民同在。

We, of course, have ceased all of our business activities with Russia in line with global sanctions, and we remain committed to supporting our allies and ensuring the safety of our people around the world. This event, more than any other, demonstrates our unique responsibility as a global company entrusted with supporting our customers as they navigate a difficult and complex geopolitical landscape, and we remain focused on honoring that mission.

當然，根據全球製裁，我們已經停止了與俄羅斯的所有商業活動，我們仍然致力於支持我們的盟友並確保我們在世界各地人民的安全。此次活動比其他任何活動都更彰顯了我們作為一家全球性公司的獨特責任，該公司受託支持我們的客戶在艱難而復雜的地緣政治環境中航行，我們將繼續專注於履行這一使命。

Alright. Let me turn to the first quarter. As you saw from the press release, we're off to a good start for the year. On the commercial aerospace side, we remain optimistic on the market recovery, despite a slower-than-expected start to the year due to the impact of Omicron and increased geopolitical tensions.

好吧。讓我回到第一季度。正如您從新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們今年有了一個良好的開端。在商業航空方面，儘管由於 Omicron 的影響和地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，今年開局慢於預期，但我們仍對市場復甦持樂觀態度。

That said, air traffic is rebounding again in many markets around the world. In the U.S., passenger traffic through TSA checkpoints remained steady versus Q4 at about 1.8 million passengers per day in the quarter. But importantly, it averaged over 2 million passengers per day in March, a significant increase last year and a nearly -- that's nearly 90% of what we saw in 2019. So a recovery is in sight.

也就是說，全球許多市場的空中交通再次反彈。在美國，通過 TSA 檢查站的客運量與第四季度相比保持穩定，該季度每天約有 180 萬乘客。但重要的是，它在 3 月份平均每天有超過 200 萬乘客，去年顯著增加，幾乎是我們在 2019 年看到的近 90%。因此復蘇在望。

On the defense side, we're very pleased with the enacted '22 DoD budget, and we're encouraged by the President's most recent fiscal '23 budget request of $773 billion. The proposed budget includes broad-based support across our key programs and technology investments in cyber, space, missiles, missile defense systems and others. And we expect the enacted budget could be even higher to account for inflation and the many unfunded priorities identified by the services.

在國防方面，我們對頒布的 22 年國防部預算感到非常滿意，我們對總統最近提出的 7730 億美元的 23 財年預算請求感到鼓舞。擬議預算包括對我們在網絡、空間、導彈、導彈防禦系統和其他方面的關鍵計劃和技術投資的廣泛支持。我們預計製定的預算可能會更高，以考慮通貨膨脹和服務確定的許多沒有資金的優先事項。

Looking internationally, our allies are also increasingly prioritizing defense spending with a focus on defensive systems, which we are uniquely positioned to support. Resilient commercial air traffic, coupled with growing global defense budgets and our strong backlog, continue to support our long-term outlook for our businesses and gives us confidence in our ability to drive top-line growth and margin expansion over the next several years.

放眼國際，我們的盟友也越來越重視國防開支，重點放在防禦系統上，我們有獨特的優勢來支持這些系統。彈性的商業空中交通，加上不斷增長的全球國防預算和我們強大的積壓，繼續支持我們對業務的長期前景，並使我們對未來幾年推動收入增長和利潤增長的能力充滿信心。

Alright. Turning to Slide 2, some highlights for the quarter. As I said, it was a good start to the year, despite the impact of Omicron and continued supply chain constraints. Commercial aftermarket remained strong in the quarter, growing 38% from Q1 of last year. We delivered solid financial performance in the quarter, where we exceeded our expectations on both adjusted EPS and free cash flow.

好吧。轉到幻燈片 2，本季度的一些亮點。正如我所說，儘管受到 Omicron 的影響和持續的供應鏈限制，今年還是一個良好的開端。本季度商業售後市場依然強勁，較去年第一季度增長 38%。我們在本季度實現了穩健的財務業績，在調整後的每股收益和自由現金流方面都超出了我們的預期。

That said, as a result of ceasing business activities in Russia, we are going to reduce our full year sales outlook by $750 million to a new range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. However, we are going to hold our adjusted EPS range of $4.60 to $4.80, and we continue to expect free cash flow of about $6 billion for the year. Neil will give you a little more color on this in just a minute.

也就是說，由於停止在俄羅斯的業務活動，我們將把全年銷售前景下調 7.5 億美元，至 677.5 億美元至 687.5 億美元的新範圍。但是，我們將保持調整後的每股收益範圍為 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元，我們繼續預計今年的自由現金流約為 60 億美元。尼爾會在一分鐘內給你更多的顏色。

Our defense backlog remained very strong at $62 billion exiting the quarter, and total company backlog was $154 billion. Notable defense awards in the quarter included about $1.2 billion of classified bookings at RMD, including a significant competitive award, as well as $650 million for the SPY-6 full-rate production contract, and RIS booked about $1.1 billion of classified awards.

我們的國防積壓仍然非常強勁，本季度末達到 620 億美元，公司總積壓為 1540 億美元。本季度值得注意的國防獎項包括 RMD 約 12 億美元的機密預訂，其中包括一項重要的競爭性獎項，以及 SPY-6 全速率生產合同的 6.5 億美元，RIS 預訂了約 11 億美元的機密獎項。

On the capital allocation front, we repurchased $743 million of RTX shares during the quarter, and we remain on track to repurchase at least $2.5 billion of share for the year. Yesterday, of course, you saw we increased our quarterly dividend by nearly 8% from $0.51 per share to $0.55, continuing our long history of growing and paying a dividend.

在資本配置方面，我們在本季度回購了 7.43 億美元的 RTX 股票，我們仍有望在今年回購至少 25 億美元的股票。昨天，當然，您看到我們將季度股息從每股 0.51 美元增加到 0.55 美元，增加了近 8%，延續了我們增長和支付股息的悠久歷史。

Since completing the merger, we have returned nearly $9 billion to RTX shareowners. And by the end of this year, by the end of '22, that will be in excess of $13 billion. And of course, we remain committed to returning at least $20 billion to shareowners in the first 4 years following the merger. That shouldn't be an issue at all.

自完成合併以來，我們已向 RTX 股東返還了近 90 億美元。到今年年底，到 22 年底，這將超過 130 億美元。當然，我們仍然致力於在合併後的前 4 年內向股東返還至少 200 億美元。這根本不應該是一個問題。

On the program execution front, we recently delivered the first LTAMDS unit into the U.S. Army test program. It's an important milestone for what will be a franchise program for RMD. And finally, we launched RTX Ventures to accelerate our pipeline of innovative technologies to grow -- to drive future growth and seed an ecosystem of groundbreaking technology companies.

在程序執行方面，我們最近將第一個 LTAMDS 單元交付給美國陸軍測試計劃。這是 RMD 特許經營計劃的一個重要里程碑。最後，我們推出了 RTX Ventures，以加速我們的創新技術管道的增長——推動未來的增長，並為突破性技術公司的生態系統提供種子。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil, and I'll get back for the wrap-up and Q&A. Neil?

有了這個，讓我把它交給尼爾，我會回來做總結和問答。尼爾？

Well, thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 3. As Greg noted, we delivered adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow that exceeded our expectations for the quarter. Sales of $15.7 billion were in-line with our expectations and up 4% organically versus the prior year.

好吧，謝謝，格雷格。我在幻燈片 3 上。正如格雷格所指出的，我們提供了超出本季度預期的調整後每股收益和自由現金流。 157 億美元的銷售額符合我們的預期，與去年相比有機增長 4%。

Our performance in the quarter was primarily driven by the continued recovery of domestic and short-haul international air travel that was partially offset by continued supply chain constraints across our businesses. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 was up 28% year-over-year and ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by commercial aftermarket at Collins; $0.04 of commercial OE timing at Pratt; and other corporate items, including lower tax expense, which more than offset the supply chain constraints.

我們在本季度的表現主要受到國內和短途國際航空旅行的持續復甦的推動，這部分被我們業務中持續的供應鏈限制所抵消。調整後每股收益為 1.15 美元，同比增長 28%，超出我們的預期，主要受柯林斯商業售後市場的推動； Pratt 0.04 美元的商業 OE 時間；和其他企業項目，包括較低的稅收支出，這足以抵消供應鏈的限制。

On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.74 per share and included $0.41 of acquisition accounting adjustments and net significant and/or nonrecurring items, which included $0.14 of charges associated with the impact of global sanctions on Russia. And free cash flow of $37 million was better than our expectations of an outflow of $500 million, driven primarily by working capital, most notably the timing of collections during the quarter.

根據公認會計原則，持續經營業務的每股收益為 0.74 美元，其中包括 0.41 美元的收購會計調整和淨重大和/或非經常性項目，其中包括與全球製裁對俄羅斯的影響相關的 0.14 美元的費用。 3700 萬美元的自由現金流好於我們預期的 5 億美元流出，這主要是由營運資金推動的，最明顯的是本季度的收款時間。

And finally, let me give you an update on our synergy progress. During the quarter, we achieved incremental gross cost synergies of about $90 million, putting us on track to achieve $335 million of incremental cost synergies for the full year.

最後，讓我向您介紹一下我們協同工作的最新進展。在本季度，我們實現了約 9000 萬美元的增量總成本協同效應，使我們有望在全年實現 3.35 億美元的增量成本協同效應。

With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share our thoughts on the rest of 2022. Jennifer?

有了這個，讓我把它交給詹妮弗帶你了解細分結果，我會回來分享我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的想法。詹妮弗？

Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $4.8 billion in the quarter, up 10% on an adjusted basis and up 11% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in the commercial aerospace end markets.

謝謝，尼爾。從幻燈片 4 中的柯林斯航空航天公司開始。本季度銷售額為 48 億美元，調整後增長 10%，有機增長 11%，主要受商業航空終端市場持續復甦的推動。

By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 39%, driven by a 73% increase in provisioning, a 43% increase in parts and repair and 11% increase in modifications and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 5%.

按渠道劃分，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 39%，這得益於供應增加 73%、零部件和維修增加 43% 以及修改和升級增加 11%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 5%。

Commercial OE sales were up 12% with strength in narrowbody, offsetting expected headwinds from lower 787 deliveries. And military sales were down 12%, driven primarily by supply chain constraints and expected declines in F-35 volume.

商用 OE 銷售額增長 12%，窄體機銷量強勁，抵消了 787 交付量下降帶來的預期阻力。軍用銷售額下降了 12%，主要受供應鏈限制和 F-35 銷量預期下降的推動。

Adjusted operating profit of $584 million was up $252 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and OE volume more than offset lower military sales volume and higher SG&A expense.

調整後的營業利潤為 5.84 億美元，比上年增加 2.52 億美元。較高的商業售後市場和 OE 銷量的下降抵消了較低的軍用銷量和較高的 SG&A 費用。

Looking ahead, as a result of ceasing activities with Russia, we now expect Collins' full year sales to be about $375 million lower than our prior expectations, but still expect their sales to grow low double digits. However, as a result of better mix and spending containment, we are maintaining Collins' full year operating profit range of up $650 million to $800 million versus 2021.

展望未來，由於與俄羅斯的活動停止，我們現在預計柯林斯的全年銷售額將比我們之前的預期低約 3.75 億美元，但仍預計他們的銷售額將增長兩位數。然而，由於更好的組合和支出控制，與 2021 年相比，我們將柯林斯的全年營業利潤範圍保持在 6.5 億美元至 8 億美元之間。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $4.5 billion were up 12% on an adjusted basis and up 13% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery of the commercial aerospace industry.

在幻燈片 5 上轉向普惠。45 億美元的銷售額在調整後增長了 12%，在有機基礎上增長了 13%，主要受商業航空航天業持續復甦的推動。

Commercial aftermarket sales were up 37% in the quarter, with legacy large commercial engine shop visit inductions up 9% and Pratt Canada shop visits up 22%. Commercial OE sales were up 12%, driven by favorable mix within Pratt's large commercial engine business as well as higher general aviation platforms at Pratt Canada.

本季度商業售後市場銷售額增長了 37%，傳統大型商用發動機商店訪問量增長了 9%，普拉特加拿大商店訪問量增長了 22%。商業 OE 銷售額增長了 12%，這得益於 Pratt 大型商用發動機業務的有利組合以及 Pratt Canada 更高的通用航空平台。

In the Military business, sales were down 11%, driven by F135 production contract award timing and lower expected production volume that were partially offset by higher F135 aftermarket volume. Adjusted operating profit of $308 million was up $268 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales volume, favorable large commercial OE mix and higher Pratt Canada OE volume were partially offset by higher SG&A and E&D as well as lower military sales volume.

在軍用業務中，銷售額下降了 11%，原因是 F135 生產合同授予時間和較低的預期產量被較高的 F135 售後市場銷量部分抵消。調整後的營業利潤為 3.08 億美元，比上年增加 2.68 億美元。較高的商業售後市場銷量、有利的大型商業 OE 組合和較高的 Pratt Canada OE 銷量被較高的 SG&A 和 E&D 以及較低的軍用銷量部分抵消。

Looking ahead, as a result of ceasing activities with Russia, we also now expect Pratt's full year sales to be about $375 million lower than our prior expectations and now expect their sales to grow high single to low double digits. However, as a result of better mix and spending containment, we are maintaining Pratt's full year operating profit range of up $500 million to $600 million versus 2021.

展望未來，由於與俄羅斯的活動停止，我們現在還預計普拉特的全年銷售額將比我們之前的預期低約 3.75 億美元，現在預計他們的銷售額將增長高個位數到低兩位數。然而，由於更好的組合和支出控制，與 2021 年相比，我們將 Pratt 的全年營業利潤範圍保持在 5 億美元至 6 億美元之間。

Turning now to Slide 6. RIS sales of $3.6 billion were down 5% versus prior year on an adjusted basis, primarily driven by the divestiture of the Global Training and Service business. Sales were in-line with prior year on an organic basis. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $378 million was down $10 million versus prior year, primarily driven by the impact of the divestiture that was partially offset by net productivity across various programs.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。RIS 銷售額為 36 億美元，經調整後比上年下降 5%，主要是由於剝離了全球培訓和服務業務。銷售額在有機基礎上與上一年保持一致。本季度調整後的營業利潤為 3.78 億美元，較上年同期下降 1000 萬美元，這主要是由於資產剝離的影響被各種計劃的淨生產力部分抵消。

RIS had $2.6 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.8 and a backlog of $17 billion. In addition to significant bookings that Greg mentioned, RIS also booked $311 million for the Next-Generation OPIR GEO. It's worth noting that we continue to expect RIS full year book-to-bill to be greater than 1.

RIS 在本季度的預訂量為 26 億美元，導致訂單出貨量為 0.8，積壓為 170 億美元。除了 Greg 提到的大量預訂外，RIS 還為下一代 OPIR GEO 預訂了 3.11 億美元。值得注意的是，我們繼續預計 RIS 全年帳單比將大於 1。

Turning to RIS' full year outlook. We continue to expect RIS sales to be down slightly on a reported basis and to grow low single digit on an organic basis. We also continue to expect RIS operating profit to be flat to up $50 million versus 2021.

轉向 RIS 的全年展望。我們繼續預計 RIS 銷售額將在報告的基礎上略有下降，並在有機基礎上以低個位數增長。我們還繼續預計 RIS 的營業利潤將與 2021 年持平至 5000 萬美元。

Turning now to Slide 7. RMD sales were $3.5 billion, down 7% on both an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by the continuing supply chain constraints and decline in certain Land Warfare and Air Defense programs. Adjusted operating profit of $387 million was $109 million lower than prior year, driven primarily by lower net program efficiencies and unfavorable program mix.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。RMD 銷售額為 35 億美元，在調整後和有機基礎上均下降 7%，這主要是由於持續的供應鏈限制以及某些陸戰和防空計劃的下降。調整後的營業利潤為 3.87 億美元，比上年減少 1.09 億美元，主要是由於淨項目效率較低和項目組合不利。

RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $4.1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.18 and a backlog of $29 billion. In addition to the awards that Greg discussed, RMD also booked about $385 million for Excalibur Rapid Demo for the U.S. Army; about $220 million for AIM-9X Sidewinder for the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force and international customers; and about $220 million for Patriot engineering support services for the U.S. Army and international customers.

RMD 在本季度的預訂量約為 41 億美元，導致訂單出貨量為 1.18 美元，積壓為 290 億美元。除了 Greg 討論的獎項外，RMD 還為美國陸軍的 Excalibur Rapid Demo 預訂了約 3.85 億美元；為美國海軍、美國空軍和國際客戶購買 AIM-9X Sidewinder 約 2.2 億美元；大約 2.2 億美元用於為美國陸軍和國際客戶提供的愛國者工程支持服務。

It's worth noting that we now expect RMD's full year book-to-bill to be at least 1.1. Looking ahead, we continue to expect RMD sales to grow low to mid-single digit and operating profit growth of $150 million to $200 million versus 2021.

值得注意的是，我們現在預計 RMD 的全年訂單出貨比至少為 1.1。展望未來，與 2021 年相比，我們繼續預計 RMD 銷售額將增長低至中個位數，營業利潤將增長 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元。

With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on the rest of the year.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給尼爾，為今年剩下的時間提供一些顏色。

Thank you, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 8. Let me give you some perspective on how we're thinking about the environment as we look ahead. I'll start with some of the positives. Despite the impact of COVID variants early in the year, we continue to expect that the commercial aerospace recovery will remain resilient and will drive growth in commercial aftermarket and narrowbody OE deliveries this year.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。我在幻燈片 8 上。讓我給你一些關於我們在展望未來時如何考慮環境的觀點。我將從一些積極的方面開始。儘管今年年初 COVID 變種的影響，我們仍然預計商業航空航天復蘇將保持彈性，並將推動今年商業售後市場和窄體 OE 交付的增長。

Notwithstanding the fact that global RPMs grew roughly 4 points less than we expected in the first quarter, commercial aftermarket grew in-line with our expectations as operators began preparing their fleets for the summer travel season. At the same time, we're closely monitoring China domestic and international traffic. And as I've said before, our outlook assumes a significant improvement in widebody traffic during the balance of the year. That said, we continue to expect commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels by the end of next year.

儘管第一季度全球 RPM 的增長比我們預期的低大約 4 個百分點，但隨著運營商開始為夏季旅行季節準備他們的機隊，商業售後市場的增長符合我們的預期。同時，我們正在密切關注中國國內和國際的流量。正如我之前所說，我們的前景假設在今年餘下時間裡寬體客流量會顯著改善。儘管如此，我們仍然預計到明年年底商業流量將恢復到 2019 年的水平。

On the defense side, as Greg mentioned, we are optimistic about the President's fiscal '23 budget request, which included a 5% base budget increase in the modernization accounts, where our investments in technology and innovation are well aligned to the administration's priorities, and our major programs are well supported. And while it's too early to quantify today, all of our businesses are positioned to support the expected growth in U.S. and international defense spending.

正如格雷格所提到的，在國防方面，我們對總統的 23 財年預算要求持樂觀態度，其中包括將現代化賬戶的基本預算增加 5%，我們對技術和創新的投資與政府的優先事項完全一致，並且我們的主要項目得到了很好的支持。雖然現在量化還為時過早，但我們所有的業務都已準備好支持美國和國際國防開支的預期增長。

On the cost reduction front, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence to deliver further margin expansion, including $1.5 billion of total gross cost synergies. On the challenges side, we continue to see global supply chain, inflation and labor availability pressures across our businesses.

在降低成本方面，我們仍然專注於推動卓越運營，以進一步擴大利潤率，包括 15 億美元的總成本協同效應。在挑戰方面，我們繼續看到我們業務中的全球供應鏈、通貨膨脹和勞動力供應壓力。

And while we saw increasing risk in these areas during the first quarter, we remain focused on mitigating actions and expect supply chain constraints will ease later in the year. And finally, we continue to monitor the broader geopolitical environment, including the impact of global sanctions as well as the U.S. and global tax environment.

雖然我們在第一季度看到這些領域的風險增加，但我們仍然專注於緩解行動，並預計供應鏈限制將在今年晚些時候緩解。最後，我們將繼續監測更廣泛的地緣政治環境，包括全球製裁的影響以及美國和全球稅收環境。

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 9. As Greg discussed, due to ceasing business activities with Russia, we are reducing our full year sales outlook by $750 million, which, as we said, is split evenly between Collins and Pratt. We now see full year sales between $67.75 billion and $68.75 billion for the full year. However, from an earnings perspective, we continue to expect adjusted earnings per share to be between $4.60 and $4.80 due to improving sales mix and spending containment at both Collins and Pratt.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 9 的展望。正如 Greg 所討論的，由於停止與俄羅斯的業務活動，我們將全年銷售前景減少 7.5 億美元，正如我們所說，這在柯林斯和普拉特之間平分。我們現在看到全年銷售額在 677.5 億美元至 687.5 億美元之間。然而，從盈利的角度來看，由於柯林斯和普拉特的銷售組合改善和支出控制，我們繼續預計調整後的每股收益將在 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元之間。

And on the cash front, we continue to expect free cash flow of about $6 billion. It's important to remind everyone that our cash flow outlook continues to assume that the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred beyond 2022, which, as I've said before, the free cash flow impact of this legislation is approximately $2 billion for the year.

在現金方面，我們繼續預計自由現金流約為 60 億美元。重要的是要提醒大家，我們的現金流前景繼續假設要求出於稅收目的的研發資本化的立法被推遲到 2022 年以後，正如我之前所說，這項立法對自由現金流的影響約為 20 億美元年。

So with that, let me hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

因此，讓我把它交還給 Greg 來完成。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. Just a couple of thoughts here on -- to our '22 priorities, which remain essentially unchanged. Obviously, we remain focused on supporting our customers, our employees, suppliers and communities so that we can actually execute on our mission of defending democracy and connecting the world.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。關於我們的 '22 優先事項，這裡只有幾個想法，這些優先事項基本保持不變。顯然，我們仍然專注於支持我們的客戶、我們的員工、供應商和社區，以便我們能夠真正執行我們捍衛民主和連接世界的使命。

And today's environment reinforces the need for us to invest in innovative technologies to remain competitive, to drive industry leadership and to deliver the right solutions for our customers. We'll do this while driving operational excellence and remaining disciplined with our capital, including meeting our capital return commitments. And of course, we're committed to doing all of this responsibly, as evidenced by the publication of our first RTX ESG report yesterday, which builds upon our long history of best practices in this area.

當今的環境強化了我們投資創新技術以保持競爭力、推動行業領先地位並為我們的客戶提供正確解決方案的需求。我們將在推動卓越運營的同時做到這一點，並對我們的資本保持自律，包括履行我們的資本回報承諾。當然，我們承諾以負責任的方式完成所有這些工作，昨天我們發布的第一份 RTX ESG 報告證明了這一點，該報告建立在我們在該領域的長期最佳實踐歷史的基礎上。

And finally, earlier this month, we celebrated the 2-year anniversary of our merger. I'm very proud of what we've accomplished together so far, and I want to thank all of our employees for all of their efforts during this very difficult and challenging period.

最後，本月早些時候，我們慶祝了合併 2 週年。我為迄今為止我們共同取得的成就感到非常自豪，我要感謝我們所有的員工在這個非常困難和充滿挑戰的時期所做的所有努力。

I'm confident in the investment thesis we laid out at the investor conference last May. Our franchises are strong. We operate in resilient markets, and we have great technology. And importantly, we have experienced leadership that is focused on operational excellence and delivering on our long-term commitments.

我對我們在去年五月的投資者會議上提出的投資論點充滿信心。我們的特許經營權很強大。我們在有彈性的市場中運營，我們擁有出色的技術。重要的是，我們擁有經驗豐富的領導力，專注於卓越運營和兌現我們的長期承諾。

With that, let me open up the call for questions. Ludi?

有了這個，讓我打開提問的電話。路迪？

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from the line of Myles Walton from UBS.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Myles Walton。

Greg or Neil, Could you comment on the gradients of the supply chain constraints you saw in the first quarter as you look to the second quarter? In particular, the 2 items of Pratt commercial engines and rocket motors. I know you've talked about recovery by year-end, but have you passed the point of low, and you're seeing improvement sequentially?

Greg 或 Neil，您能否評論一下您在看第二季度時在第一季度看到的供應鏈約束的梯度？特別是普拉特商用發動機和火箭發動機這兩項。我知道你談到了年底前的複蘇，但是你是否已經過了低谷，並且你看到了連續的改善？

Yes. Myles, thanks for the question. So I think we laid this out last month -- I guess, 1.5 months ago when we were speaking at the Barclays Investor Conference. But the fact is, we had a problem with our structural casting supplier, where we were not able to get castings into our MRP schedule. That resulted in about 70 engines moving out of the first quarter.

是的。邁爾斯，謝謝你的提問。所以我認為我們在上個月提出了這一點——我猜是 1.5 個月前我們在巴克萊投資者大會上發言的時候。但事實是，我們的結構鑄件供應商遇到了問題，我們無法將鑄件納入 MRP 計劃。這導致大約 70 台發動機退出第一季度。

That problem is not behind us, but we are working with that supplier to recover that. And we'll get most of the way there by the end of the year, but it is not without its challenges. Like everybody else, our suppliers are seeing a shortage of labor as well as inflation in their own businesses. So that's the first piece. I think, again, we understand the issue, and we have a plan to recover it.

這個問題並沒有過去，但我們正在與該供應商合作以解決這個問題。我們將在今年年底前完成大部分工作，但這並非沒有挑戰。與其他所有人一樣，我們的供應商在他們自己的業務中看到勞動力短缺和通貨膨脹。所以這是第一塊。我想，再一次，我們理解這個問題，我們有一個恢復它的計劃。

On the rocket motor side, this impacts most of the RMD businesses, and that remains problematic. We have a recovery plan that we work with them on every day. We have a number of our folks that are at their facilities every single day, working through this, making sure we're being prioritized. But the recovery is not going to happen this year. I think we are so far behind on rocket motors, it will -- it could well stretch into the 2023 time frame.

在火箭發動機方面，這影響了大多數 RMD 業務，並且仍然存在問題。我們有一個每天與他們合作的恢復計劃。我們有很多人每天都在他們的設施裡，通過這個工作，確保我們被優先考慮。但復甦不會在今年發生。我認為我們在火箭發動機方面遠遠落後，它會 - 它很可能會延伸到 2023 年的時間框架。

So again, not a new issue, but one that we have not been able to solve yet. And we're off working with other suppliers to try and requalify other rocket motors, but it is a long process to do that. So we're going to be hand in mouth on rocket motors for a period of time, yes.

再說一遍，這不是一個新問題，而是一個我們還沒有解決的問題。我們正在與其他供應商合作，嘗試重新認證其他火箭發動機，但這是一個漫長的過程。所以我們將在火箭發動機上手足無措一段時間，是的。

Okay. Okay. And just a clarification, did that drive the EAC in the quarter in RMD? Is that the reason for the lighter margins?

好的。好的。只是澄清一下，這是否推動了 RMD 季度的 EAC？這就是利潤率較低的原因嗎？

Myles, it's Neil. Let me comment a little bit on the margins. There's a couple of things driving the margins year-over-year. I would characterize it in a couple of different buckets. The first one is about 110 basis points I would attribute to lower EACs in the quarter versus a year ago. And I would say that some of that was, in fact, driven by the fact that because of the supply chain delays that we encountered in the first quarter, they pushed key milestones out to the right that we're looking to that would be the indicators of when we could realize productivity.

邁爾斯，是尼爾。讓我評論一下邊緣。有幾件事推動了利潤率的同比增長。我會用幾個不同的桶來描述它。第一個是大約 110 個基點，我將其歸因於本季度的 EAC 低於一年前。我想說，其中一些實際上是由於我們在第一季度遇到的供應鏈延遲，他們將關鍵的里程碑推到了我們正在尋找的右邊，這將是我們何時可以實現生產力的指標。

So we expect productivity to return to the RMD business in the second quarter and beyond. And certainly, the first quarter, I think, marks a low point of the year for RMD and the margin. But that was the principal contributor.

因此，我們預計生產力將在第二季度及以後恢復到 RMD 業務。當然，我認為第一季度是 RMD 和利潤率的低點。但那是主要貢獻者。

The second piece, just to kind of finish the thought, the other 100 basis points I would attribute to the contract mix. And we've been talking about this for quite some time now about the mix to -- from lower international Patriot and NASAMS production volume and some lower-margin development contracts that are in process right now.

第二部分，只是為了結束這個想法，我將其他 100 個基點歸因於合約組合。我們已經討論了很長一段時間了——從較低的國際愛國者和 NASAMS 生產量以及目前正在處理的一些低利潤開發合同。

So overall, with RMD sales down 7% in the quarter, about half of that was expected, and the other half was, I'd say, driven by the supply chain. We also did have one fewer workday in the quarter. That's probably about $50 million for the quarter. But we do expect that to recover as the year goes on. RMD is still expected to be up about 3% year-over-year on a sales basis.

因此，總體而言，本季度 RMD 銷售額下降了 7%，其中大約一半是預期的，而另一半是由供應鏈驅動的。我們在本季度也確實少了一個工作日。這可能是本季度約 5000 萬美元。但我們確實預計隨著時間的推移，這種情況會恢復。預計 RMD 的銷售額仍將同比增長約 3%。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

I wanted to ask a couple of things on defense. Jennifer talked about I think it was low to mid-single-digit sales growth profile at RMD going forward. Does this embed incremental demand that you talked about expected out of Europe? More specifically, the army -- will the army replace the current 1,400 Stingers that were sent to Ukraine? And would that be through a sole-source contract or, perhaps, a competitive follow-on contract?

我想問一些關於防守的事情。詹妮弗談到我認為 RMD 未來的銷售增長情況是中低個位數。這是否包含您所說的歐洲預期的增量需求？更具體地說，軍隊——軍隊會取代目前被送往烏克蘭的 1400 架毒刺坦克嗎？那會是通過獨家合同還是通過競爭性的後續合同？

Yes. Let me start with that. As far as looking at the sales forecast for RMD, that does actually not contemplate any upside that we see from replenishment of stocks. And again, we're working through all that, trying to understand the timing. Clearly, we won't see any of that benefit this year.

是的。讓我從那開始。就 RMD 的銷售預測而言，這實際上並沒有考慮到我們從補貨中看到的任何上行空間。再一次，我們正在努力解決所有這些問題，試圖了解時機。顯然，我們今年不會看到任何好處。

But as we think about the next couple of years, as we see the budgets continue to increase and we see the replenishment orders come in, we would expect we will see a benefit to the RMD top-line, which will take that number up somewhat. Again, we're not quite ready to give you a new number, but I would just tell you, it's going to be higher than what we've got there.

但是當我們考慮未來幾年時，隨著我們看到預算繼續增加並且我們看到補貨訂單進來，我們預計我們將看到 RMD 收入的好處，這將在一定程度上增加這個數字.同樣，我們還沒有準備好給你一個新的數字，但我只想告訴你，它會比我們已經得到的要高。

As far as the Stingers, we should keep in mind, we have -- we are currently producing Stingers for an international customer, but we have a very limited stock of material for Stinger production. We've been working with the DoD for the last couple of weeks. We're actively trying to resource some of the material. But unfortunately, DoD hasn't bought a Stinger in about 18 years.

至於毒刺，我們應該記住，我們有——我們目前正在為國際客戶生產毒刺，但用於毒刺生產的材料庫存非常有限。過去幾週我們一直在與國防部合作。我們正在積極嘗試資源一些材料。但不幸的是，國防部已經有 18 年沒有購買 Stinger 了。

And some of the components are no longer commercially available, and so we're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile of the seeker head. That's going to take us a little bit of time.

並且一些組件不再商業化，所以我們將不得不出去重新設計導引頭導彈中的一些電子設備。這需要我們一點時間。

So again, we'll ramp up production, what we can this year, but I would expect, again, this is going to be a '23, '24 where we actually see orders come in for the larger replenishments, both on Stinger as well as on Javelin, which has also been very successful in theater.

所以再一次，我們將增加產量，今年我們可以做到，但我再次預計，這將是 23 和 24 年，我們實際上會看到更大的補貨訂單，兩者都是在 Stinger 上以及 Javelin，它在戲劇中也非常成功。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Greg, can you give us maybe some color on just where you are on the narrowbody build rate side? I mean, it seems like that's a big part of the positives for this year. And just are you seeing, running into any supply chain issues on that front?

格雷格，你能給我們一些關於你在窄體建造率方面的顏色嗎？我的意思是，這似乎是今年積極因素的很大一部分。您是否看到，在這方面遇到任何供應鏈問題？

Yes. Peter, I think the biggest supply chain challenge that we're seeing as it relates to the narrowbody recovery would go to the Pratt & Whitney, obviously, as we think about GTF production. And that's the structural castings issue that we talked about that caused first quarter rates to be lower than what we had expected.

是的。彼得，我認為，當我們考慮 GTF 生產時，我們看到的與窄體復甦相關的最大供應鏈挑戰顯然是普惠公司。這就是我們談到的結構鑄件問題，導致第一季度的利率低於我們的預期。

So that will get better as we go throughout the year. We actually see supply chain constraints across the commercial portfolio, though. I mean, we see it in electronics just like everybody else. We see it in aluminum. We see it in titanium.

因此，隨著我們全年的發展，情況會變得更好。不過，我們實際上看到了整個商業組合的供應鏈限制。我的意思是，我們和其他人一樣在電子產品中看到它。我們在鋁中看到它。我們在鈦中看到它。

I think the -- one of the challenges as we think about Russia, for instance, that was a large source of some of our titanium supplies. And because of the sanctions, we are looking to resource a lot of material. Probably not going to impact narrowbody production delivery rates this year, but certainly could going into next year.

我認為 - 例如，當我們考慮俄羅斯時，挑戰之一是我們的一些鈦供應的主要來源。由於製裁，我們正在尋找大量材料資源。可能不會影響今年的窄體生產交付率，但肯定會影響到明年。

I would tell you that we're in lockstep with both Airbus and Boeing on their production rates. Obviously, if you talk to the folks at Airbus, they'd like to see a rate of 70 or 75 by 2025. We'll see if we can get there, but we're certainly doing everything we can to support our customers there.

我會告訴你，我們在生產率方面與空客和波音保持同步。顯然，如果您與空中客車公司的人員交談，他們希望到 2025 年看到 70 或 75 的比率。我們會看看我們是否能實現這一目標，但我們肯定會盡我們所能來支持我們的客戶.

But supply chain continues to be an issue, I would say, across the business, especially on the electronics side, where we've seen lead times go from 3 months out to 12 months plus, and we are on allocation for many of those components. So again, nothing dramatic that's going to change our forecast or change our ability. It's just a watch item that we're actively working.

但我想說，供應鏈仍然是整個企業的一個問題，尤其是在電子方面，我們已經看到交貨時間從 3 個月到 12 個月以上，而且我們正在分配其中許多組件.再說一次，沒有什麼戲劇性的事情會改變我們的預測或改變我們的能力。這只是我們正在積極工作的手錶項目。

Peter, maybe I could add a couple of points here, too. Just from a financial perspective, as you think about the sales impact of the Russia on the narrowbody, in particular at Collins, we expect the commercial OE now to be up mid to high teens year-over-year, still very strong growth.

彼得，也許我也可以在這裡補充幾點。僅從財務角度來看，當您考慮俄羅斯對窄體機的銷售影響時，尤其是在柯林斯，我們預計現在的商業 OE 將同比增長到中高水平，仍然是非常強勁的增長。

And similarly at Pratt, we now expect commercial OE to be up low teens. I had talked about -- Greg and I had talked about OE shipments being up about 200. Think about that now as about up 180 at the Pratt business year-over-year. So just a couple of extra data points for you.

同樣，在 Pratt，我們現在預計商業 OE 將達到十幾歲。我曾談到——格雷格和我曾談到 OE 出貨量增加了大約 200 件。現在想想，普拉特公司的出貨量同比增加了 180 件。因此，只需為您提供幾個額外的數據點。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Neil, maybe just a follow up on your Russia comment there. I was wondering if you could give us a bit more detail on this hit to revenues that you're anticipating in 2022. Because I wouldn't expect Airbus and Boeing to not remarket planes, for example. Is this all coming on the aftermarket and on bizjet?

尼爾，也許只是對你在俄羅斯的評論的跟進。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供更多詳細信息，說明您預計 2022 年的收入受到的衝擊。例如，因為我不希望空客和波音不會再銷售飛機。這一切都出現在售後市場和 bizjet 上嗎？

Yes, Rob, I think if you think about that -- so Russia accounts for about 4% of global RPMs, right? So it's not a huge number, but it accounts for about 1.5% of our total sales. So call that $900 million a year. We're going to be able to mitigate some of that through higher sales elsewhere, but you really do lose some sales associated with aftermarket activity into Russia.

是的，Rob，我想如果你考慮一下 - 所以俄羅斯佔全球 RPM 的 4% 左右，對吧？所以這不是一個很大的數字，但它占我們總銷售額的 1.5% 左右。所以稱之為每年9億美元。我們將能夠通過在其他地方增加銷售來減輕其中的一些影響，但你確實會失去一些與俄羅斯售後市場活動相關的銷售。

Also, importantly, at Pratt, we're not shipping engines to Irkut. We're not shipping engines to Airbus that would otherwise go into Russia. Now Airbus, of course, will remarket some of those so we won't lose those completely. But we will lose the spare sales associated with those engines going into Russia.

此外，重要的是，在普拉特，我們不會向伊爾庫特運送發動機。我們不會向空中客車公司運送否則會進入俄羅斯的發動機。當然，現在空中客車公司將重新銷售其中的一些，這樣我們就不會完全失去這些。但我們將失去與進入俄羅斯的這些發動機相關的備用銷售。

So again, we've taken a pretty detailed look at this in terms of the sales impact. And what Neil said, importantly, I think, though, there still is a relatively significant hit in terms of earnings, around $200 million. Fortunately, we're going to be able to offset that through cost reduction and just cost containment. But it is not a small number for us as we think about the guidance for the year.

因此，我們再次對銷售影響進行了非常詳細的研究。尼爾所說的，重要的是，我認為，就收入而言，仍然存在相對顯著的衝擊，大約 2 億美元。幸運的是，我們將能夠通過降低成本和控製成本來抵消這一點。但這對我們來說並不是一個小數字，因為我們考慮了今年的指導。

And Rob, I would also tell you that just to kind of think about the profile of that, think about $225 million a quarter in each of the next 3 quarters. We actually had about $80 million of sales that did not materialize in the first quarter because of this impact.

羅布，我還要告訴你，只是想一想這方面的概況，想想接下來三個季度中每個季度的 2.25 億美元。由於這種影響，我們實際上有大約 8000 萬美元的銷售額在第一季度沒有實現。

And as you think about -- one other thing to add is, Pratt Canada also was selling engines to -- helicopter engines into Russia. So that will impact the OE. So from a split perspective, Collins, about 60% aftermarket, 40% OE. And then at Pratt, about 10% aftermarket, but really heavy on the OE side, 90%.

正如你所想的那樣——要補充的另一件事是，普拉特加拿大公司也在向俄羅斯出售發動機——直升機發動機。所以這會影響OE。所以從拆分的角度來看，柯林斯大約 60% 售後市場，40% OE。然後在普拉特，大約 10% 的售後市場，但在 OE 方面真的很重，90%。

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Yes. Maybe just following on that supply chain theme. How are you guys handling the titanium situation, right? I mean Russia was a somewhat important supplier for you guys. I mean are you just looking to move that all domestic? And how are you thinking about it?

是的。也許只是關注供應鍊主題。你們如何處理鈦的情況，對吧？我的意思是俄羅斯對你們來說是一個重要的供應商。我的意思是你只是想把所有的東西都搬到國內嗎？你是怎麼想的？

Ron, that is a great question. And it is, I think, the biggest challenge that we have as we think about these global sanctions on Russia. We did have a relatively significant portion of titanium forgings and castings coming from Russia, and many of those are now on the sanctions list.

羅恩，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，這是我們在考慮對俄羅斯實施這些全球製裁時面臨的最大挑戰。我們確實有相當一部分來自俄羅斯的鈦鍛件和鑄件，其中許多現在都在製裁名單上。

The good news is, as we started looking across the business, and we actually -- we started advanced purchasing back in the fourth quarter when we were able to get ahead of some of the sanctions. So we have inventory for a big chunk of that throughout -- through the end of this year. I will tell you, though, that there are some components, especially at Pratt Canada, where it's going to take us some time to resource some of the castings, and that's going to impact some of our customer deliveries this year, full stop.

好消息是，當我們開始審視整個業務時，我們實際上 - 我們在第四季度開始提前採購，當時我們能夠提前獲得一些制裁。因此，到今年年底，我們整個過程中都有很大一部分庫存。不過，我會告訴你，有一些組件，尤其是在 Pratt Canada，我們需要一些時間來獲取一些鑄件，這將影響我們今年的一些客戶交付，完全停止。

And as we think about the sales guidance that Neil was just talking about, obviously, the Pratt Canada piece is directly impacting that in terms of not being able to deliver all the engines that we had hoped to. We'll recover those next year, and we're working on the sourcing.

當我們考慮 Neil 剛剛談到的銷售指導時，顯然，Pratt Canada 的作品直接影響了這一點，因為我們無法交付我們希望的所有引擎。我們將在明年恢復這些，我們正在努力採購。

I would tell you, trying to find titanium sourcing today is very difficult. Russia accounted for about 15% of global sponge production. So that's really been taken out of the market. But it's not just the sponge production, it's also the casting and forging facilities that are in Russia that are no longer available to us.

我會告訴你，今天試圖找到鈦採購是非常困難的。俄羅斯約佔全球海綿產量的 15%。所以這真的被排除在市場之外了。但不僅僅是海綿生產，還有俄羅斯的鑄造和鍛造設施不再對我們可用。

So we're working through all of that. I think we've done a pretty good job of identifying what those challenges are and finding second sources. But it's going to cause us to be late on some deliveries, especially out of Pratt Canada this year, and it's going to take us some time to recover.

所以我們正在努力解決所有這些問題。我認為我們在確定這些挑戰是什麼並找到第二個來源方面做得很好。但這會導致我們在某些交付上遲到，尤其是今年在普拉特加拿大以外的地區，我們需要一些時間才能恢復。

Got it. And if I may, as a follow-on, are you thinking about just permanently moving it out of Russia?

知道了。如果可以的話，作為後續，您是否正在考慮將其永久移出俄羅斯？

We're done in Russia, full stop. We actually -- we had a joint venture there where we built commercial heat exchangers for Boeing and Embraer. We closed that facility. We sold our share. We aren't going back.

我們在俄羅斯完成了，句號。實際上，我們在那裡成立了一家合資企業，為波音和巴西航空工業公司製造商用熱交換器。我們關閉了那個設施。我們賣掉了我們的份額。我們不回去了。

I think this is, as they say, crossing the Rubicon here as far as we're concerned for Russia. We're not going to support the airlines. We're not going to support the development programs. We're not going to support any Russian customers going forward while this is going on.

我認為，正如他們所說，就我們對俄羅斯而言，這是跨越盧比孔河。我們不會支持航空公司。我們不會支持開發計劃。在此期間，我們不會繼續支持任何俄羅斯客戶。

Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe on a more upbeat note, can we talk about Collins profitability? It was pretty good, 50% incrementals in the quarter, and that then sort of implies it's flattish for the rest of the year. What's sort of going on there? Are you just mitigating for risk with supply chain? And then now that the 2-year lockup has expired with the merger, how are you thinking about the portfolio overall?

也許在更樂觀的情況下，我們可以談談柯林斯的盈利能力嗎？這非常好，本季度增長了 50%，這在某種程度上意味著它在今年剩餘時間裡持平。那裡發生了什麼事？您是否只是通過供應鏈來降低風險？既然合併後 2 年的鎖定期已經到期，那麼您如何看待整個投資組合？

Okay. Let me start with the financial piece, and I'll let Greg talk about our portfolio thinking. So yes, very strong margins for Collins in the quarter. So good margins. The aftermarket, in particular, at Collins, performed quite well with provisioning up 73% year-over-year, and that was really what drove the favorability in the first quarter for us. So I think we don't expect that to sustain itself at quite that level as the year progresses.

好的。讓我從財務部分開始，然後讓 Greg 談談我們的投資組合思維。所以，是的，柯林斯在本季度的利潤率非常高。這麼好的利潤。尤其是柯林斯的售後市場表現相當不錯，撥備同比增長 73%，這確實是推動第一季度對我們有利的原因。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們預計不會將其維持在該水平。

And also similar to last year, Sheila, you remember that we had phased our expenditures, our E&D, our SG&A. We had furloughs that were still in effect in the first quarter of last year. So those types of items become a headwind as you get a little further into the year. So very strong incrementals in the first quarter.

與去年類似，希拉，你記得我們已經分階段支出、我們的 E&D、我們的 SG&A。我們的休假在去年第一季度仍然有效。因此，隨著您進入這一年，這些類型的項目會成為逆風。第一季度的增量非常強勁。

We still expect mid-30s for the next several quarters for Collins as you see E&D ramp up a little bit. You see the effect of our merit increases take hold on April 1 across the company. But if the aftermarket is stronger, you will surely see that in the margins as well. We're very pleased to see double-digit margins again at Collins.

我們仍然預計柯林斯接下來的幾個季度將在 30 多歲左右，因為您會看到 E&D 略有增加。您會看到，我們的加薪效果會在 4 月 1 日在整個公司生效。但是，如果售後市場更強大，您肯定也會在利潤空間中看到這一點。我們很高興在柯林斯再次看到兩位數的利潤率。

Greg, I'll turn it over to you.

格雷格，我會把它交給你的。

Yes, Sheila, just a comment on portfolio rationalization. We obviously haven't been sitting still for the last 2 years. We've been looking across the portfolio. But to your point, we were really kind of hamstrung because of the spin transactions and the merger to not really do anything significant with any of our portfolio during that 2-year period.

是的，希拉，只是對投資組合合理化的評論。在過去的兩年裡，我們顯然沒有坐以待斃。我們一直在尋找整個投資組合。但就你的觀點而言，由於分拆交易和合併，我們真的有點束手無策，在那兩年期間我們的任何投資組合都沒有真正做任何重要的事情。

So we are actively looking across the portfolio today for both acquisitions as well as divestitures. I would tell you, the acquisitions will probably be technology-related and smaller dollar, similar to what we did last year with SEAKR Engineering or Blue Canyon in the space side. And then we are going to look at the Collins portfolio for potential divestitures. There are certain businesses that do not have the growth profile, the margin profile or the technical footprint that we're looking for in some of these product lines.

因此，我們今天在整個投資組合中積極尋找收購和資產剝離。我會告訴你，這些收購可能與技術相關，而且金額較小，類似於我們去年在太空方面對 SEAKR Engineering 或 Blue Canyon 所做的。然後我們將研究柯林斯的投資組合，以尋找潛在的資產剝離。有些企業沒有我們在其中一些產品線中尋找的增長概況、利潤率概況或技術足跡。

So I would expect, over the next 6 to 9 months, we'll complete those analysis. Obviously, you don't want to be selling any of these businesses in a down aero market. But with the recovery that we're expecting this year and next, I would think we will probably be doing something later this year or early next year.

所以我預計，在接下來的 6 到 9 個月內，我們將完成這些分析。顯然，您不想在航空市場低迷的情況下出售這些業務中的任何一個。但隨著我們預計今年和明年的複蘇，我認為我們可能會在今年晚些時候或明年初做一些事情。

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 David Strauss。

Greg, on the Collins side, any visibility out of Boeing to go above 31 a month on MAX? And where are you today on 87, and the outlook for production to start moving back up again there?

格雷格，在柯林斯方面，波音公司在 MAX 上的能見度每月超過 31 嗎？你今天在哪裡 87，生產前景再次開始回升？

That's a great question for the Boeing company tomorrow when they release earnings. I would tell you, we're in lockstep with Boeing in terms of the production schedule on MAX for this year. I know they have talked about 31 a month, and we're clearly able to support that level and even higher as we go into next year.

明天波音公司發布財報時，這是一個很好的問題。我會告訴你，就今年 MAX 的生產計劃而言，我們與波音公司步調一致。我知道他們每月談論 31 次，我們顯然能夠支持這個水平，甚至在我們進入明年時甚至更高。

787 production, I think, again, it's -- we have been working with Boeing as they're working through their own issues relative to FAA certification to get the aircraft delivered. Obviously, there's -- we haven't been shipping a lot down to Charleston on the 787 over the last quarter because of some of those issues.

787 的生產，我認為，再一次，我們一直在與波音公司合作，因為他們正在解決他們自己與 FAA 認證相關的問題，以交付飛機。顯然，由於其中一些問題，我們在上個季度沒有用 787 向查爾斯頓運送很多貨物。

But we would expect, as the year progresses, we'll start to see that pick up. And I would tell you that Boeing has been very transparent with us in terms of sharing what their delivery and the production forecasts are, and it's all reflected in the guidance that we've given for Collins. So no change to any of that today.

但我們預計，隨著時間的推移，我們將開始看到這種回升。我會告訴你，波音在分享他們的交付和生產預測方面對我們非常透明，這一切都反映在我們為柯林斯提供的指導中。所以今天沒有任何改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

On the large commercial engine castings issue at Pratt, is this related to aluminum casting or titanium casting? And also, with the raw material and labor inflation, are there threshold limits on how much you're able to pass through to your customers?

關於普拉特的大型商用發動機鑄件問題，這與鋁鑄件或鈦鑄件有關嗎？此外，隨著原材料和勞動力的膨脹，您能夠傳遞給客戶的金額是否存在門檻限制？

So those are primarily titanium castings from a -- from our supplier that's impacting. These are structural castings, which means you can't really build -- start building most of the engine until you get the castings in, and that's what the holdup is there. I'm sorry, was there another part to that question, Kristine?

因此，這些主要是來自我們供應商的鈦鑄件，這是有影響的。這些是結構鑄件，這意味著你不能真正建造——在你把鑄件放進去之前，開始建造大部分的引擎，這就是存在的問題。對不起，克里斯汀，這個問題還有其他部分嗎？

Yes. Greg, on raw material and labor inflation, are there threshold limits on how much you're able to pass through to customers?

是的。格雷格，關於原材料和勞動力通脹，您能夠傳遞給客戶的金額是否存在門檻限制？

There are. I think the good news is, as you think about inflation in the supply chain, is about 80% of the -- our commercial aerospace supply is on long-term agreements. Obviously, there's -- some of that comes up for renegotiation every year, and we're seeing some cost pressure. Typically, every year, we see maybe $150 million or so of inflation. I would tell you, there's probably an extra $200 million this year of inflation that we're going to have to offset through cost reduction or negotiations with some of the supply chain.

有。我認為好消息是，當您考慮供應鏈中的通貨膨脹時，大約 80% 的 - 我們的商業航空航天供應是長期協議的。顯然，每年都會重新談判其中一些，我們看到了一些成本壓力。通常，我們每年都會看到大約 1.5 億美元的通貨膨脹。我會告訴你，今年可能會有額外的 2 億美元通貨膨脹，我們將不得不通過降低成本或與某些供應鏈進行談判來抵消。

In terms of passing it on to the customers, typically, we have dead-band pricing within the contracts, which require us to absorb the first tranche of inflation. And beyond that, we can pass on a portion of it. Unfortunately, we're not going to be able to do that this year. That will be a benefit next year as we can increase pricing.

就將其傳遞給客戶而言，通常情況下，我們在合同中有死區定價，這要求我們吸收第一部分通貨膨脹。除此之外，我們可以傳遞其中的一部分。不幸的是，我們今年無法做到這一點。明年這將是一個好處，因為我們可以提高定價。

We did, of course, increase pricing on the aftermarket through our catalog that was issued, I think, last October. That was roughly a 6% increase year-over-year. So we're able to offset a chunk of the -- of that inflation through pricing, and the rest is going to have to be offset through either cost reduction, redesign or renegotiation.

當然，我們確實通過去年 10 月發布的目錄提高了售後市場的定價。同比增長大約 6%。因此，我們能夠通過定價來抵消通貨膨脹的一部分，而其餘的則必須通過降低成本、重新設計或重新談判來抵消。

And while we're on the topic of supply chain and the castings, that $0.04 benefit that we realized in the first quarter is likely going to end up being a $0.04 headwind as we go through the second quarter, and we get the production back on track.

雖然我們討論的是供應鍊和鑄件，但我們在第一季度實現的 0.04 美元收益很可能最終會在第二季度成為 0.04 美元的逆風，我們可以恢復生產追踪。

And your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned。

If we go back to last summer, you all talked about a 5-year CAGR for defense in the sort of 3% to 5% range top-line. And now we've seen -- now that we're seeing the issues with the Russian invasion, we're looking at stronger defense budgets. You talked about this a little bit earlier. How do you see that trajectory now? Is there upside from there? We haven't seen a backlog increase yet, but does this change the way you look at that 5-year outlook?

如果我們回到去年夏天，你們都談到了 5 年復合年增長率在 3% 到 5% 範圍內的頂線。現在我們已經看到了——既然我們看到了俄羅斯入侵的問題，我們正在尋找更強大的國防預算。你之前談過這個。你現在如何看待這個軌跡？從那裡有上升空間嗎？我們還沒有看到積壓的增加，但這是否會改變您對 5 年前景的看法？

Yes. Doug, as we think about this, given the President's budget request for '23 of $773 billion did not anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So we were seeing an increase in defense spending before any of this nonsense in Ukraine with the Russians.

是的。道格，當我們考慮到這一點時，鑑於總統對 7730 億美元中 23 美元的預算要求並沒有預料到俄羅斯會入侵烏克蘭。因此，在烏克蘭與俄羅斯人發生任何這種胡說八道之前，我們就看到了國防開支的增加。

So I think, again, the trajectory is better than what we had expected. I mean, I will go back 2 years when the merger first occurred, we thought defense spending was going to be flat to up slightly. And I think everybody recognizes the need for modernization and the need to prepare for -- to deter these folks in a more robust fashion.

所以我認為，再一次，軌跡比我們預期的要好。我的意思是，我會回到合併第一次發生的兩年前，我們認為國防開支會持平到小幅上升。而且我認為每個人都認識到現代化的必要性和準備的必要性 - 以更強大的方式阻止這些人。

So clearly, there's going to be upward pressure on sales guidance, but again, you probably won't see any of that until '23 or '24. But as we understand what the implications are of the new defense budget, what we see in terms of the plus-ups as they go through the process on the '23 NDAA, I think, again, we'll have an opportunity to update everybody later this year on our thinking around kind of that 3- to 5-year outlook for defense.

很明顯，銷售指導將面臨上行壓力，但同樣，您可能要到 23 年或 24 年才能看到任何這些。但是，當我們了解新國防預算的含義，以及我們在 '23 NDAA 進程中所看到的附加值時，我想，再次，我們將有機會更新每個人今年晚些時候，我們對 3 到 5 年的國防前景進行了思考。

But your sense is that there could potentially be some upside there as we look in the outer years?

但你的感覺是，當我們展望未來幾年時，那裡可能會有一些上行空間？

Well, yes, absolutely. If you look at just the R&D in -- the research and development in the budget, that's up 11% versus what was in the '22 budget. So clearly, there is going to be more spending than what we had anticipated. And importantly, it's in those programs like space and some of the other advanced missions that we have an outsized share of.

嗯，是的，絕對的。如果你只看預算中的研發——預算中的研發，這比 22 年預算中的預算增加了 11%。很明顯，支出將超過我們的預期。重要的是，我們在太空和其他一些高級任務中佔有很大份額。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Neil, could you spend a minute on the progression of the margin through the year at the other segments the way you did it Collins? Because it looks like RIS is fairly steady through the year, but then RMD, mathematically, needs a pretty big step up to get into the 150 to 200. It looks like a lot sequentially. So I'm assuming that's back-end loaded, but the more back-end loaded, the higher it has to be.

尼爾，你能像柯林斯那樣花一分鐘時間了解其他部分的利潤增長嗎？因為看起來 RIS 在這一年里相當穩定，但是從數學上講，RMD 需要一個相當大的進步才能進入 150 到 200。看起來很多順序。所以我假設這是後端加載的，但是後端加載的越多，它就必須越高。

And then at Pratt, I assume -- or clearly, you'll have different mix, OE versus aftermarket, as you move through the year. But the guidance implies that margin steps down, and I assume that mix change is also back-end loaded. So just be helpful to hear from you on how we should expect those to change as you move through the year.

然後在普拉特，我假設 - 或者很明顯，隨著你這一年的發展，你會有不同的組合，OE 與售後市場。但該指導意味著保證金會下降，我假設混合變化也是後端加載的。因此，請聽聽您的意見，了解我們應該如何期望隨著您一年的到來而發生變化。

Thanks, Noah. Let me start with RMD. As I said earlier, the 11% in the first quarter we see as the low point of the year. And in order to get to our full year guide, you're right, we have to be in the 13% to 14% margin range, and that business has been there before. That will come on the back of improved mix. It will also come with productivity realization as we get later in the year, and these milestones get realized. So I would expect to see sequential increases in the margin at RMD as we go throughout the year, with Q1 being the low point.

謝謝，諾亞。讓我從 RMD 開始。正如我之前所說，我們將第一季度的 11% 視為今年的低點。為了達到我們的全年指南，你是對的，我們必須在 13% 到 14% 的利潤率範圍內，而且這種業務以前就已經存在。這將得益於改進的組合。隨著我們在今年晚些時候實現生產力，它還將實現這些里程碑。因此，隨著我們全年的發展，我預計 RMD 的利潤率會連續增加，第一季度是最低點。

I talked about Collins, but just to reiterate, Q1 benefited from the provisioning. I do expect SG&A in E&D to kick in a little bit higher, plus we have substantial military growth that's profiled in the latter part of the year. And so that obviously comes with slightly lower margins, and you'll see that kind of come across throughout the quarters as we go ahead.

我談到了柯林斯，但重申一下，第一季度從供應中受益。我確實預計 E&D 中的 SG&A 會提高一點，而且我們在今年下半年有顯著的軍事增長。因此，這顯然會帶來略低的利潤率，隨著我們繼續進行，您會在整個季度中看到這種情況。

At Pratt, the story really is about the mix of OE versus aftermarket. And as the OE volume continues to grow, particularly in the large commercial engine business, you should see a 250 basis point or so degradation in the margins as that negative engine margin picks up in the next 2 quarters, in particular. Typically, we see a larger aftermarket mix in the fourth quarter.

在 Pratt，故事實際上是關於 OE 與售後市場的混合。隨著 OE 數量的持續增長，尤其是在大型商用發動機業務中，您應該會看到利潤率下降 250 個基點左右，尤其是在接下來的兩個季度，負發動機利潤率會回升。通常，我們會在第四季度看到更大的售後市場組合。

And then lastly, I expect to see 20, 30 basis point incremental margin improvements in RIS as we go through the year, again, on better volume, better mix, productivity. We saw good productivity in the first quarter there, and I expect that to continue through the rest of the year.

最後，我預計 RIS 的利潤率將增加 20 到 30 個基點，因為我們在這一年中再次看到更好的數量、更好的組合和生產力。我們在第一季度看到了良好的生產力，我預計這種情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Maugeri from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Mike Maugeri。

Neil, following on a couple of the prior questions on the slower GTF deliveries at Pratt. With the supply chain issues, is it just Pratt? Or I think Greg might have mentioned something broader. Is it affecting all of A320? And does that change your thinking at all on peak negative engine margin and, separately, breakeven cash flow on GTF?

尼爾，關於普拉特較慢的 GTF 交付的幾個先前的問題。供應鏈問題，僅僅是普拉特嗎？或者我認為格雷格可能提到了更廣泛的內容。它會影響整個 A320 嗎？這是否會改變您對峰值負發動機利潤率的想法，以及單獨的 GTF 盈虧平衡現金流？

Mike, no, I don't see any change to our thinking around peak negative engine margin or our breakeven on the GTF. I would say that the supply chain issues that we've been talking about and we're seeing, aside from the casting issue, are more acute in the defense side of our businesses at this time.

邁克，不，我認為我們對峰值負發動機利潤率或我們在 GTF 上的盈虧平衡的想法沒有任何變化。我想說的是，我們一直在談論和看到的供應鏈問題，除了選角問題外，目前在我們業務的國防方面更為嚴重。

In particular, January and February of this quarter, this past quarter were particularly light. And I think that was driven by our suppliers having a lot of absenteeism and an inability to put the overtime to recover. But we have seen that start to slowly recover in March and again in April.

尤其是本季度的一月和二月，上一季度尤為清淡。我認為這是由於我們的供應商缺勤很多，而且無法通過加班來恢復。但我們已經看到這種情況在 3 月開始緩慢恢復，並在 4 月再次恢復。

That has really affected Collins as well as RIS and RMD. We've seen that across the board there. At Pratt & Whitney, in the first quarter, in addition to the casting issue on the military side, we did see a delay in getting under contract for the next lots of F135 engines. We do have a handshake and expect that to be done in the second quarter. So just timing within the year.

這確實影響了柯林斯以及 RIS 和 RMD。我們已經全面看到了這一點。在普惠公司，第一季度，除了軍事方面的選角問題外，我們確實看到下一批 F135 發動機的合同延遲。我們確實有握手，並希望在第二季度完成。所以只在一年內計時。

And your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert from RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

Greg and Neil, I wanted to ask about China. The traffic data and events in China, so far, in April, have not been encouraging. Has -- can you help us think about the full year assumptions for international travel and sort of what we've seen in China so far this year? Has that changed the outlook, specifically, on the full year for the aftermarket? Or how would you talk about the recovery in international travel and the risk in the back half of the year relative to what we were seeing, so far, in China, in particular?

格雷格和尼爾，我想問一下中國。到目前為止，4 月份中國的交通數據和事件並不令人鼓舞。有 - 你能幫助我們考慮一下國際旅行的全年假設以及今年迄今為止我們在中國看到的情況嗎？這是否改變了前景，特別是售後市場的全年前景？或者，相對於我們目前所看到的情況，尤其是在中國，您如何談論國際旅行的複蘇以及下半年的風險？

Yes. Ken, that's kind of an understatement about China. Obviously, I think China accounts for about 16% of global RPMs. A big chunk of that is their domestic market, which is down more than 80% because of the lockdowns that we've seen because of COVID. Obviously, there is an impact to the aftermarket, but we do expect that, that will recover. And we have seen that several times in the past, where the Chinese locked down their cities. They get passed away within 30 or 60 days, and the traffic comes right back. So we don't expect any long-term impacts from this.

是的。肯，這是對中國的輕描淡寫。顯然，我認為中國約佔全球 RPM 的 16%。其中很大一部分是他們的國內市場，由於我們看到的 COVID 封鎖，該市場下降了 80% 以上。顯然，售後市場會受到影響，但我們確實希望這種影響會恢復。我們過去曾多次看到，中國人封鎖了他們的城市。他們會在 30 或 60 天內去世，然後交通又會回來。因此，我們預計這不會產生任何長期影響。

I would tell you, the aftermarket recovery for widebody international travel, we're still expecting that to recover to roughly 75% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year. China accounts for a piece of that, but a relatively small piece of the international long haul, really, what you're going to need to see is traffic picking up to Japan and Australia and transatlantic throughout the course of the year, which we fully expect. I mean the bookings look very, very solid. And I think, while it looks aggressive in terms of that kind of 75% kind of recovery, all indications are that, that's exactly what's going to happen.

我會告訴你，寬體國際旅行的售後市場復甦，我們仍然預計到今年年底將恢復到大流行前水平的約 75%。中國占了其中的一部分，但在國際長途中相對較小的一部分，真的，你需要看到的是全年到日本和澳大利亞以及跨大西洋的交通量增加，我們完全預計。我的意思是預訂看起來非常非常可靠。而且我認為，儘管就那種 75% 的複蘇而言，它看起來很激進，但所有跡像都表明，這正是將要發生的事情。

One thing we also will see as we go into the second quarter, kind of to that point, is we have an engine center in Shanghai. And so at Pratt, in particular, you'll see relatively flat sequential aftermarket as that shop is currently shut down, but we expect to recover that this year.

當我們進入第二季度時，我們還將看到一件事，就是我們在上海有一個發動機中心。因此，特別是在 Pratt，您會看到相對平穩的售後市場，因為該商店目前已關閉，但我們預計今年會恢復。

On the Collins side, sequentially, I think low single-digit type sequential growth. So still growth in aftermarket, but clearly, the China market is a watch item. It's an important one for our narrowbody customers in particular.

在柯林斯方面，按順序，我認為是低個位數的連續增長。因此，售後市場仍在增長，但顯然，中國市場是一個手錶項目。這對我們的窄體客戶來說尤其重要。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Greg, you've mentioned in the past that -- expressed some skepticism about Airbus going up to 70 or 75 and indicating that you didn't think that Boeing would really allow them to get to that market share level. When you spoke a little bit earlier today, it sounded like you saw it as more of a supply constraint issue in terms of Airbus getting up to that 70 to 75 per month level. Has your thinking on that topic and on what the market share split could be, has that thinking changed recently?

格雷格，你過去曾提到過——對空客升至 70 或 75 表示懷疑，並表示你認為波音不會真正讓他們達到那個市場份額水平。當你今天早些時候發言時，聽起來你認為這更像是一個供應限制問題，因為空客達到每月 70 到 75 的水平。你對這個話題的想法以及市場份額的分割可能是什麼，這種想法最近是否發生了變化？

Seth, I would tell you, it is evolving. As we look at the backlog that Airbus has, if you want a slot to take an A320 delivery, you're talking about 2028 at current production rates. So there is pressure to move up to that 70 to 75. We're currently facilitized for rate 63, which is something we had agreed to with Airbus well before the pandemic.

賽斯，我會告訴你，它正在進化。當我們查看空中客車公司的積壓訂單時，如果您想要一個插槽來接收 A320 的交付，那麼您正在談論的是 2028 年以目前的生產率。因此，有壓力要升至 70 至 75。我們目前正在為 63 費率提供便利，這是我們在大流行之前就與空中客車公司達成的協議。

So I think, again, there is pressure to take the rate up to 70 or 75. And I think Boeing will see its share -- will continue to also increase production on the 737. But there is robust demand out there for narrowbody aircraft. And I think, again, the constraint will be supply chain. At the end of the day, Ken, not just Pratt and Collins, but the entire supply chain support a rate of 75 a month in Toulouse and Hamburg, and then 40 or 50 a month for narrowbody at Boeing, the 737.

因此，我再次認為，將這一速度提高到 70 或 75 是有壓力的。我認為波音將看到它的份額——還將繼續增加 737 的產量。但窄體飛機的需求強勁。而且我認為，同樣，制約因素將是供應鏈。歸根結底，肯，不僅僅是普拉特和柯林斯，整個供應鏈都支持圖盧茲和漢堡每月 75 架的速度，然後波音 737 的窄體飛機每月提供 40 或 50 架。

So we'll see. All I would tell you is, we remain in lockstep in terms of what's going on over the next 18 to 24 months with both Boeing and Airbus on the narrowbody. And we're certainly able to meet those demands today, and we'll work with them. If the demand is there, we will find a way to meet it.

所以我們拭目以待。我要告訴你的是，在未來 18 到 24 個月內，波音和空客都在窄體飛機上的發展，我們將保持同步。我們今天當然能夠滿足這些要求，我們將與他們合作。如果有需求，我們會想辦法滿足它。

And your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

So Greg, you mentioned 6% aftermarket price hike. You normally do that in October for January, so it hits all at once. But back in October, inflation wasn't quite the threat that it was now. Are you seeing -- were you seeing pushback on that price hike? And secondly, was that across the board? Or which areas were maybe a little higher than others?

所以格雷格，你提到了 6% 的售後價格上漲。你通常在 10 月和 1 月這樣做，所以它一下子就成功了。但早在 10 月份，通貨膨脹就不像現在那樣構成威脅。你看到 - 你看到價格上漲的阻力嗎？其次，這是全面的嗎？或者哪些區域可能比其他區域高一點？

Cai, thanks for the question. So obviously, we saw inflation building and that price increase was a little bit stronger than what we would typically push for the catalog. I thought usually 4.5% or 5%. So we took the opportunity to raise prices. We do it, obviously, with keeping in mind in terms of where the demand signals are coming from the customer. And a big chunk of the aftermarket at both Pratt and Collins is on long-term agreements, where you don't see that type of 6% increase.

蔡，謝謝你的提問。很明顯，我們看到了通貨膨脹，價格上漲比我們通常推動的目錄要強一些。我認為通常是 4.5% 或 5%。所以我們趁機提價。顯然，我們這樣做時要牢記需求信號來自客戶的位置。普拉特和柯林斯的大部分售後市場都簽訂了長期協議，你看不到那種 6% 的增長。

But on the time and material, overhaul and repair works that we do, that will see the benefit. Obviously, inflation is much worse than what we expected it to be for the year. We were thinking 3% to 4%, not 8.5% like we saw last month. But our hope here is that inflation will moderate as we get to the end of the year. And come October, we'll take another look at the catalog. And if inflation is still there, we will have to address it through the catalog again.

但就我們所做的時間和材料、大修和維修工作而言，這將帶來好處。顯然，通貨膨脹比我們預期的今年要糟糕得多。我們認為是 3% 到 4%，而不是我們上個月看到的 8.5%。但我們的希望是，隨著我們到年底，通脹將會放緩。到了 10 月，我們將再看一遍目錄。如果通貨膨脹仍然存在，我們將不得不再次通過目錄來解決它。

And we have reached the end of our Q&A session. I would like to hand the call back to Mr. Greg Hayes for the closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉回給 Greg Hayes 先生，以作閉幕詞。

Alright. Thanks, Ludi. Thanks all for listening today. As always, Jennifer and the IR team are available all day to answer any and all questions you might have. Thank you. Stay healthy, and we'll see you all soon. Take care. Bye.

好吧。謝謝，盧迪。感謝大家今天收聽。與往常一樣，Jennifer 和 IR 團隊全天都可以回答您可能遇到的任何問題。謝謝你。保持健康，我們很快就會見到你們。小心。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。