雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 RTX 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

My name is Lateef, and I will be your operator for today.

我的名字是拉蒂夫 (Lateef)，今天我將擔任您的接線生。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音以供重播。

On the call today are Chris Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Nathan Ware, Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Chris Calio； Neil Mitchill，財務長；以及投資者關係副總裁 Nathan Ware。

Now this call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX’s website at www.rtx.com.

現在，本次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您也可以從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items.

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和管理層通常稱為其他重要項目的淨非經常性和/或重要項目。

The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的盈利和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。

RTX’s SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

RTX 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（包括 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格）詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Calio.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給卡利奧先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

As you saw in our press release, our fourth quarter adjusted sales, EPS, and free cash flow capped off a year of very strong performance for RTX.

正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，我們第四季度的調整後銷售額、每股收益和自由現金流為 RTX 今年的強勁表現畫上了圓滿的句號。

In 2024, we delivered $80.8 billion in adjusted sales, up 11% organically, driven by 14% growth in commercial OE, 13% growth in commercial aftermarket, and 9% organic growth in defense sales.

2024 年，我們實現調整後銷售額 808 億美元，有機成長 11%，這得益於商用 OE 成長 14%、商用售後市場成長 13% 以及國防銷售有機成長 9%。

Adjusted EPS was up 13% year over year to $5.73. We delivered 90 basis points of consolidated segment margin expansion with contributions from all three business segments, and $4.5 billion in free cash flow.

調整後每股收益年增 13% 至 5.73 美元。我們實現了合併分部利潤率擴大 90 個基點，三大業務部門都做出了貢獻，自由現金流達到 45 億美元。

Customer demand for our technologies and solutions remains robust, and we ended the year with a backlog of $218 billion, up 11% year over year, including $125 billion of commercial backlog and a record $93 billion of defense backlog.

客戶對我們的技術和解決方案的需求仍然強勁，今年年底我們的訂單積壓額達到 2,180 億美元，年增 11%，其中包括 1,250 億美元的商業訂單積壓額和創紀錄的 930 億美元的國防訂單積壓額。

On the defense side, Raytheon's backlog continues its favorable mix shift and is now 44% international, up 8 points year over year.

在國防方面，雷神公司的積壓訂單持續呈現有利的組合轉變，目前國際訂單佔比為 44%，較去年同期成長 8 個百分點。

We'll walk through the fourth quarter details in a few minutes, but I know everyone is interested in 2025.

我們將在幾分鐘內介紹第四季度的細節，但我知道每個人都對 2025 年感興趣。

So let me first share a few comments on that front.

因此，我首先想就這一方面分享一些評論。

A favorable demand environment and the strength of our advanced products across commercial aerospace and defense position us for sustained growth in 2025 and beyond.

良好的需求環境和我們在商用航空航太和國防領域先進產品的實力使我們在 2025 年及以後能夠實現持續成長。

On the commercial side, passenger air travel remains robust, and IATA estimates that global RPKs will grow approximately 8% this year.

在商業方面，客運航空旅行依然強勁，國際航空運輸協會估計今年全球 RPK 將成長約 8%。

Commercial airframer backlogs also remain at record levels.

商用飛機製造商的積壓訂單也保持在創紀錄的水平。

We have significant content on the fastest-growing platforms.

我們在成長最快的平台上擁有大量內容。

On the defense side of the business, there continues to be tremendous need for our products such as Patriot, NASAMS, F135, GEM-T, F117, and Coyote, all critical equipment being used around the world.

在國防業務方面，我們的產品如 Patriot、NASAMS、F135、GEM-T、F117 和 Coyote 等需求持續龐大，所有這些關鍵設備都在世界各地使用。

We also expect continued strength in international demand for many of these products with key partners and allies in NATO and the Indo-Pacific committed to increasing defense spending.

我們也預計，隨著北約和印度-太平洋地區的主要合作夥伴和盟友致力於增加國防開支，國際上對此類產品的需求將繼續保持強勁。

And as everyone knows, it's pretty dynamic right now on the macroeconomic front, but RTX is positioned to perform in any environment.

眾所周知，目前宏觀經濟形勢非常活躍，但 RTX 有能力在任何環境下表現出色。

Over the last several years, we've continued to qualify new and second sources in our supply chain, and we've made substantial investments in capacity expansion and modernization of our infrastructure in the United States.

在過去幾年裡，我們不斷篩選新的和第二批供應鏈供應商，並對美國的產能擴張和基礎設施現代化進行了大量投資。

And we have strong partnerships around the world that support production and deliver services within the markets that we serve.

我們在世界各地擁有強大的合作夥伴關係，為我們服務的市場提供生產支援和提供服務。

All of these factors support another year of positive momentum for RTX and we expect full year 2025 adjusted sales to be between $83 billion and $84 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 4% and 6% year over year.

所有這些因素都支持 RTX 再創輝煌一年，我們預計 2025 年全年調整後銷售額將在 830 億美元至 840 億美元之間，相當於同比有機增長 4% 至 6%。

For segment profit, we expect 10% to 13% growth resulting in continued segment margin expansion, with all three businesses again contributing to the year-over-year growth.

對於分部利潤，我們預計將成長 10% 至 13%，導致分部利潤率持續擴大，而三大業務將再次為同比成長做出貢獻。

From an EPS perspective, we expect adjusted EPS of between $6.00 and $6.15, up 5% to 7% year over year.

從每股盈餘角度來看，我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 6.00 美元至 6.15 美元之間，年增 5% 至 7%。

And for free cash flow, we expect between $7 billion and $7.5 billion for the year.

我們預計今年的自由現金流將在 70 億美元至 75 億美元之間。

This growth supports capital returns to our shareowners with over $33 billion returned already since the merger, including $3.7 billion in 2024.

這一成長支持了我們向股東提供的資本回報，自合併以來已獲得超過 330 億美元的回報，其中包括 2024 年的 37 億美元。

Today, we have clear line of sight to deliver towards the high end of our $36 billion to $37 billion capital return commitment by the end of this year, and we are committed to continuing our strong capital deployment strategy as we move forward.

今天，我們明確了在今年年底前實現 360 億至 370 億美元資本回報承諾的高端目標，並致力於在未來繼續推行強有力的資本配置策略。

Our performance will continue to be underpinned by the strategic priorities we've been discussing in the last few quarters: executing on our commitments, innovating for future growth, and leveraging our breadth and scale.

我們的業績將繼續以我們在過去幾季中討論的策略重點為基礎：履行我們的承諾、為未來成長而創新以及利用我們的廣度和規模。

Let's move to slide 4, and I'll provide an update on each of these priorities.

讓我們轉到投影片 4，我將針對每個優先事項提供最新資訊。

First, executing on our commitments.

第一，履行承諾。

On the GTF fleet management plan, our outlook remains consistent with our prior comments.

對於GTF機隊管理計劃，我們的展望與先前的評論保持一致。

As we've discussed, we expect to gradually reduce PW1100 AOGs throughout this year, driven by continued improvement in engine throughput at our MRO facilities.

正如我們所討論的，由於我們的 MRO 設施的引擎吞吐量持續提高，我們預計今年將逐步減少 PW1100 AOG。

Last year, MRO output was up 30% with a significant increase in forging production, and this year we expect MRO output to grow above 30%.

去年，MRO產量增加了30％，鍛造件產量大幅增加，今年我們預計MRO產量將增加30％以上。

More broadly, we continue to leverage our CORE operating system, Industry 4.0 improvements and focused capacity enhancements to drive productivity across the company.

更廣泛地說，我們將繼續利用我們的核心作業系統、工業 4.0 改進和有針對性的產能增強來提高整個公司的生產力。

Last year, enabled by CORE, we continue to improve productivity across the company, growing sales 11% organically, with less than a 2% increase in head count across RTX.

去年，在 CORE 的推動下，我們持續提高整個公司的生產力，銷售額有機成長了 11%，而 RTX 的員工人數僅增加了不到 2%。

And this year, we expect to complete a record number of CORE projects to drive operational performance and continued segment margin expansion, with an emphasis on improving on-time delivery, reducing inventory, and reducing the cost of scrap, rework, and repair.

今年，我們預計完成創紀錄數量的核心項目，以推動營運績效和持續擴大分部利潤率，重點是提高準時交貨率、減少庫存以及降低廢品、返工和維修成本。

Additionally, we completed our goal of connecting 40 of our top factories to our proprietary data analytics platform.

此外，我們還完成了將 40 家頂級工廠連接到我們專有的數據分析平台的目標。

We continue to harness this value to drive company-wide productivity improvements through equipment efficiency, better quality, and enhanced product flow visibility.

我們將繼續利用這一價值，透過提高設備效率、提高品質和增強產品流程可見度來推動全公司生產力的提高。

For example, last year, we saw a 50% improvement in on-time delivery for Raytheon’s circuit card assembly production line.

例如，去年，我們看到雷神公司的電路卡組裝生產線的準時交貨率提高了50％。

We also saw a 50% increase in equipment utilization in pilot cells at Pratt's module center for the F135.

我們也看到普惠 F135 模組中心試驗車間的設備利用率提高了 50%。

This year, we plan to double the number of product families leveraging this digital infrastructure, which will allow us to expand our use of data and AI in our aftermarket operations and product development.

今年，我們計劃利用這個數位基礎設施將產品系列數量增加一倍，這將使我們能夠在售後市場營運和產品開發中擴大數據和人工智慧的使用。

Next, let's talk innovating for future growth.

接下來，讓我們來談談未來發展的創新。

In 2024, we spent over $7.5 billion in company and customer-funded research and development to advance technologies that address the immediate and emerging needs of our customers.

2024 年，我們在公司和客戶資助的研發上花費了超過 75 億美元，以推進滿足客戶當前和新興需求的技術。

Through our ability to rapidly bring new technology to production and meet rigorous customer requirements, we are uniquely positioned to deliver capabilities at scale.

透過快速將新技術投入生產並滿足嚴格的客戶要求的能力，我們在大規模交付能力方面具有獨特的優勢。

For example, Raytheon's upgraded Coyote effector recently demonstrated enhanced capabilities against complex drone targets.

例如，雷神公司升級版的 Coyote 效應器最近展示了增強的對抗複雜無人機目標的能力。

Designed, produced, and fielded in less than 18 months, these enhancements showcase our ability to rapidly integrate software and hardware technology into products.

這些增強功能的設計、生產和部署僅花了不到 18 個月的時間，展示了我們將軟體和硬體技術快速整合到產品中的能力。

And as you may have seen, the Army highlighted the effectiveness of this upgrade with over 170 threats intercepted in recent conflicts.

正如大家所看到的，陸軍在最近的衝突中攔截了超過 170 次威脅，凸顯了升級的有效性。

We're leveraging the same rapid development cycle across the company, including on multiple classified programs to meet our customers' urgent need to field improved capabilities.

我們在整個公司範圍內利用相同的快速開發週期，包括多個機密項目，以滿足客戶對部署改進能力的迫切需求。

And we continue to make good progress on the GTF Advantage at Pratt with the completion of all engine testing requirements, including a test schedule with more than double the endurance testing of the original program.

我們在普惠公司的 GTF Advantage 專案中繼續取得良好進展，完成了所有引擎測試要求，其中包括比原始專案多一倍以上的耐久性測試計劃。

We're pleased with the results and are on track for engine certification in the first half of this year with deliveries to follow in the second half.

我們對結果感到滿意，並將在今年上半年獲得引擎認證，並在下半年交付。

This type of innovation will continue in 2025 as we plan to spend over $7.5 billion again on company and customer-funded R&D to both field new products and develop advanced capabilities that are critical for the next generation of commercial and defense platforms, such as fuel efficiency, resilient networks, directed energy, autonomy, AI, and advanced materials.

這種創新將在2025年繼續進行，我們計劃再次投入超過75億美元用於公司和客戶資助的研發，以推出新產品並開發對下一代商業和國防平台至關重要的先進能力，例如燃油效率、彈性網絡、定向能、自主性、人工智慧和先進材料。

We're also innovating how we do our work as we continue to implement AI applications across RTX.

隨著我們繼續在 RTX 上實施 AI 應用程序，我們也在創新我們的工作方式。

Last year, we saw benefits in areas including product testing, first article inspections, and RFP responses.

去年，我們在產品測試、首件檢驗和 RFP 回應等領域看到了收益。

For example, using generative AI, Collins' avionics business has seen software testing cycle times improve by 3x, while maintaining our same quality standards.

例如，透過使用生成式人工智慧，柯林斯的航空電子業務的軟體測試週期時間縮短了 3 倍，同時維持了相同的品質標準。

We have a plan this year to deploy another 40 use cases.

我們計劃今年部署另外 40 個用例。

Through our continued initiatives to leverage machine learning and generative technologies, we expect to improve operational speed, cycle times and capital utilization, while decreasing our dependency on external labor.

透過持續利用機器學習和生成技術，我們希望提高營運速度、週期時間和資本利用率，同時減少對外部勞動力的依賴。

And lastly, leveraging the breadth and scale of RTX.

最後，利用 RTX 的廣度和規模。

As part of our broader infrastructure plan to maximize utilization of RTX facilities, Collins is building out 125,000 square feet of production space in Raytheon's Richardson, Texas facility to support new wins, including the multibillion-dollar award last year for the Survivable Airborne Operations Center program.

作為我們最大限度利用 RTX 設施的更廣泛的基礎設施計劃的一部分，柯林斯正在雷神公司位於德克薩斯州理查森的工廠建設 125,000 平方英尺的生產空間，以支持新的獎項，包括去年為生存性機載作戰中心項目獲得的數十億美元獎項。

Through leveraging an existing RTX facility, we've been able to reduce the investment for this capacity expansion by 50%.

透過利用現有的 RTX 設施，我們能夠將此次產能擴張的投資減少 50%。

And as we continue to evaluate our footprint, we've launched a significant number of projects across the company to lean out our manufacturing floor space and increase utilization, all with the goal of reducing our fixed costs and creating additional capacity.

隨著我們繼續評估我們的足跡，我們在整個公司範圍內啟動了大量項目，以精簡我們的製造廠房空間並提高利用率，所有這些都是為了降低我們的固定成本並創造額外的產能。

Bringing this all together, we feel very good about the momentum we've created heading into 2025 and where our business is positioned.

綜合考慮所有這些，我們對邁向 2025 年所創造的勢頭以及我們的業務定位感到非常滿意。

With that, I'll turn it over to Neil and Nathan to take you through more details on the fourth quarter and our 2025 outlook.

接下來，我將把時間交給 Neil 和 Nathan，他們將向你們詳細介紹第四季以及我們 2025 年的展望。

Neil?

尼爾？

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

I'm on slide 5.

我在投影片 5 上。

As Chris said, we had strong financial performance to finish the year.

正如克里斯所說，我們以強勁的財務業績結束了這一年。

In the fourth quarter, adjusted sales of $21.6 billion were up 9% and up 11% organically, ahead of our prior expectations, primarily driven by commercial OE at Pratt.

第四季度，調整後的銷售額為 216 億美元，成長 9%，有機成長 11%，高於我們先前的預期，主要得益於普惠的商業 OE。

By sales channel, growth was led by commercial aftermarket, which was up 15%, and defense, which was up 10% organically.

從銷售通路來看，商業售後市場和國防業務是主要成長點，商業售後市場成長了 15%，國防業務有機成長了 10%。

Commercial OE sales grew 10% as higher deliveries at Pratt more than offset the lower narrow-body volume we expected at Collins.

由於普惠飛機交付量的增加超過了我們預期的柯林斯窄體飛機交付量的下降，商用 OE 銷售額增加了 10%。

Segment operating profit of $2.7 billion was up 29%, with segment operating margin expansion of 180 basis points versus the prior year.

分部營業利益為 27 億美元，成長 29%，分部營業利益率較前一年擴大 180 個基點。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.54 was up 19% from the prior year, driven by segment operating profit growth, which was partially offset by expected higher taxes and lower pension income.

調整後每股收益為 1.54 美元，較上年增長 19%，這主要得益於分部營業利潤的增長，但預期稅收增加和養老金收入減少部分抵消了這一增長。

On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $1.10 and included $0.30 of acquisition accounting adjustments, $0.05 of restructuring, and $0.09 of other non-recurring items.

根據 GAAP 基礎，持續經營業務的每股收益為 1.10 美元，其中包括 0.30 美元的收購會計調整、0.05 美元的重組和 0.09 美元的其他非經常性項目。

Free cash flow for the quarter was $492 million, bringing the full year total to $4.5 billion, which included approximately $1.1 billion of powder metal compensation and slightly higher year-end disbursements, including capital expenditures.

本季的自由現金流為 4.92 億美元，使全年總額達到 45 億美元，其中包括約 11 億美元的粉末金屬補償和略高的年終支出（包括資本支出）。

In total, the full year included approximately $2.6 billion of impacts from powder metal, legal matters, and the Raytheon contract matter that we've previously discussed.

總體而言，全年包括約 26 億美元來自粉末金屬、法律事務以及我們之前討論過的雷神合約事務的影響。

Also in the fourth quarter, we completed the sale of the Collins Hoist & Winch business as we continue to prioritize investments in our core.

此外，在第四季度，我們完成了 Collins Hoist & Winch 業務的出售，因為我們繼續優先考慮對核心業務的投資。

Lastly, we returned $852 million of capital to shareowners, primarily through dividends, and we paid down $800 million of debt in the quarter, bringing our total debt paydown for 2024 to $2.5 billion.

最後，我們主要透過股息向股東返還了 8.52 億美元的資本，並在本季度償還了 8 億美元的債務，使我們 2024 年的總債務償還達到 25 億美元。

With that, I'll hand it over to Nathan to take you through the segment results, and then I'll come back and share some additional details on our 2025 outlook.

接下來，我將把時間交給 Nathan，讓他帶您了解各部分的結果，然後我會回來分享一些有關我們 2025 年展望的更多細節。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

Starting with Collins on slide 6.

從幻燈片 6 上的 Collins 開始。

Sales were $7.5 billion in the quarter, up 8% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven by strength in defense and commercial aftermarket.

本季銷售額為 75 億美元，調整後和有機成長均為 8%，這得益於國防和商業售後市場的強勁成長。

By channel, defense sales were up 13%, primarily due to higher volume across multiple programs and platforms.

按通路劃分，國防銷售額成長了 13%，主要原因是多個項目和平台的銷量增加。

Commercial aftermarket sales were up 12%, driven by a 21% increase in provisioning, an 18% increase in mods and upgrades, and a 9% increase in parts and repair.

商業售後市場銷售額成長 12%，其中，供應量成長 21%，改裝和升級成長 18%，零件和維修成長 9%。

And as expected, commercial OE sales for the quarter were down 6% versus the prior year, driven primarily by lower narrow-body volume on the 737 MAX.

如預期，本季商用 OE 銷售額較前一年下降 6%，主要原因是 737 MAX 窄體飛機銷售下降。

Adjusted operating profit of $1.2 billion was up $172 million versus the prior year.

調整後的營業利潤為 12 億美元，較前一年增加 1.72 億美元。

Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and defense volume was partially offset by lower commercial OE volume and unfavorable commercial OE mix.

商業售後市場和國防市場銷售的下降部分被商業原廠配件銷售的下降和不利的商業原廠配件組合所抵消。

For the full year, Collins generated $28.3 billion of adjusted sales and $4.5 billion of adjusted operating profit, resulting in 100 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion.

全年而言，柯林斯實現調整後銷售額 283 億美元，調整後營業利潤 45 億美元，利潤率年增 100 個基點。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on slide 7.

在第 7 張投影片轉向普惠公司。

Sales of $7.6 billion were up 18% on both an adjusted and organic basis, with sales growth across all three channels.

銷售額達 76 億美元，經調整銷售額和有機銷售額均成長 18%，三個通路的銷售額均成長。

Commercial OE sales were up 31% in the quarter, primarily driven by increased deliveries and favorable mix in large commercial engines.

本季商用 OE 銷售額成長 31%，主要得益於交付量的增加和大型商用引擎的良好組合。

Commercial aftermarket sales were up 17% in the quarter, driven by higher volume in large commercial engines, primarily GTF and Pratt Canada.

本季商用售後市場銷售額成長了 17%，這主要得益於大型商用引擎（主要是 GTF 和普惠加拿大）銷量的成長。

In military engines, sales were up 8%, driven by higher volume across F135 production, the F135 Engine Core Upgrade program, and F135 sustainment.

在軍用發動機方面，銷售額增長了 8%，這得益於 F135 產量的增加、F135 發動機核心升級計劃以及 F135 維護計劃。

This was partially offset by lower sustainment volume across other legacy platforms, primarily the F100 and F117.

這被其他傳統平台（主要是 F100 和 F117）的較低維持量部分抵消。

Adjusted operating profit of $717 million was up $312 million versus the prior year, driven by favorable OE volume and mix in large commercial engines, favorable mix in Pratt Canada aftermarket and drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket, and military volume.

調整後的營業利潤為 7.17 億美元，比上年增長 3.12 億美元，這得益於大型商用發動機的原始設備製造商銷量和產品組合良好、普惠加拿大售後市場的良好產品組合良好以及商用售後市場和軍用銷量的下降。

Pratt also benefited from an approximately $70 million insurance recovery in the quarter.

本季度，普拉特還獲得了約 7,000 萬美元的保險賠償。

Also in the quarter, Pratt booked $8.9 billion of awards, including $1.4 billion for F135 sustainment.

此外，在本季度，普惠公司獲得了 89 億美元的合同，其中包括 14 億美元的 F135 維護合約。

For the full year, Pratt & Whitney generated $28.1 billion of adjusted sales and $2.3 billion of adjusted operating profit, resulting in 100 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion.

全年而言，普惠公司調整後銷售額達281億美元，調整後營業利潤達23億美元，利潤率較上年同期擴大100個基點。

In addition, GTF engine shipments in 2024 were up 14% on a year-over-year basis.

此外，2024年GTF引擎出貨量年增14%。

Now turning to Raytheon on slide 8.

現在轉到第 8 張投影片上的雷神公司。

Sales of $7.2 billion in the quarter were up 4% on an adjusted basis and 10% organically.

本季銷售額為 72 億美元，經調整後成長 4%，有機成長 10%。

The sales growth was driven by higher volume on land and air defense systems, including Global Patriot, NASAMS, and counter-UAS programs as well as 5 points from higher volume associated with the restart of contracts with the Middle East customer.

銷售成長主要得益於陸地和防空系統銷售的增加，包括全球愛國者、NASAMS 和反無人機項目，以及與中東客戶重啟合約帶來的銷量增加 5 個百分點。

This growth was partially offset by the impact from the Cybersecurity divestiture and lower volume on air and space defense systems.

這一增長被網路安全業務剝離和防空防空系統業務量下降的影響部分抵消。

Adjusted operating profit of $728 million was up $110 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by drop-through on higher volume, improved net productivity, and favorable mix, partially offset by the impact from the Cybersecurity divestiture.

調整後的營業利潤為 7.28 億美元，較上年增加 1.1 億美元，主要由於銷售增加、淨生產率提高和產品組合有利，但部分抵消了網路安全業務剝離的影響。

Year over year, net productivity improved by approximately $50 million in the quarter.

與去年同期相比，本季淨生產力提高了約 5,000 萬美元。

Bookings in the quarter were $9.5 billion, resulting in a backlog of $63 billion and a full year book-to-bill of 1.48. Key awards included $848 million to supply Romania with additional Patriot systems, highlighting the continued demand for air and missile defense solutions.

本季訂單量為 95 億美元，積壓訂單量為 630 億美元，全年訂單出貨比為 1.48。主要合約包括向羅馬尼亞提供價值 8.48 億美元的額外愛國者係統，凸顯了對防空和飛彈防禦解決方案的持續需求。

Raytheon also booked $1.9 billion of classified awards, $763 million for Stinger air defense missiles and $591 million for the Next-Generation Jammer airborne electronic warfare system.

雷神公司還獲得了價值 19 億美元的機密合同，其中包括 7.63 億美元的毒刺防空飛彈合約和 5.91 億美元的下一代幹擾機載電子戰系統合約。

For the full year, Raytheon generated $26.8 billion of adjusted sales and $2.7 billion of adjusted operating profit, resulting in 100 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion.

雷神公司全年調整後銷售額為 268 億美元，調整後營業利潤為 27 億美元，利潤率年增 100 個基點。

Net productivity at the business was up approximately $160 million on a year-over-year basis in 2024.

2024 年，該業務的淨生產力將年增約 1.6 億美元。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Neil to provide some more color on our 2025 outlook.

說完這些，我將把話題轉回給尼爾，讓他為我們的 2025 年展望提供更多細節。

Thanks, Nathan.

謝謝，內森。

Turning to slide 9, let me talk through the drivers of our 2025 outlook that Chris highlighted.

翻到第 9 張幻燈片，讓我談談 Chris 強調的 2025 年展望的驅動因素。

Starting with sales, supported by the demand environment we've discussed we expect total RTX sales to be between $83 billion and $84 billion for the year.

從銷售開始，在我們討論過的需求環境的支持下，我們預計今年 RTX 的總銷售額將在 830 億美元至 840 億美元之間。

Within this outlook, we've assumed that the Collins Actuation divestiture is completed by the end of the second quarter.

在此展望中，我們假設 Collins Actuation 的剝離將在第二季末完成。

Therefore, on an organic basis, this translates to between 4% and 6% top line growth.

因此，從有機基礎來看，這相當於 4% 至 6% 的營收成長。

Looking at it by channel at the RTX level and adjusting for divestitures, we expect approximately 10% commercial aftermarket growth.

從 RTX 層級來看通路，並根據資產剝離進行調整，我們預計商業售後市場將成長約 10%。

On the commercial OE side, sales are expected to be up mid-single digits year over year as we align with our customers on delivery requirements, which we see ramping throughout the year.

在商業 OE 方面，由於我們與客戶的交付要求保持一致，預計銷售額將比去年同期增長中等個位數，而且我們看到全年交付要求都在上升。

And defense sales are also expected to grow mid-single digits across the company.

預計整個公司的國防銷售額也將實現中等個位數成長。

With respect to EPS, let me take you through the year-over-year walk.

關於每股收益，讓我帶您回顧一下同比的變化。

Starting at the segment level, at the midpoint of our outlook range, operating profit growth of 12% is expected to drive approximately $0.66 of EPS growth.

從分部層級開始，在我們的展望範圍的中點，預計 12% 的營業利潤成長將推動每股收益成長約 0.66 美元。

Included in this segment growth is a headwind of roughly $0.07 associated with the divestitures we completed last year and the expected Actuation divestiture this year.

該部門的成長包括與我們去年完成的資產剝離和今年預計的 Actuation 資產剝離相關的約 0.07 美元的逆風。

And due to the progress we've made on paying down debt from the accelerated share repurchases completed in 2024, we expect a tailwind from lower interest of about $0.05.

而且由於我們在償還 2024 年完成的加速股票回購債務方面取得了進展，我們預計利息降低將帶來約 0.05 美元的順風。

Partially offsetting these items is approximately $0.15 from lower FAS/CAS and non-service pension income, driven primarily by the actions we've taken to improve the funded status of our plans, as well as $0.06 from a higher share count.

部分抵銷這些項目的是來自較低的 FAS/CAS 和非服務退休金收入的約 0.15 美元，這主要由於我們為改善計劃的資金狀況而採取的行動，以及來自更高股份數量的 0.06 美元。

And finally, we also expect a $0.16 headwind from other items, which is primarily comprised of $0.06 of higher corporate expenses as we invest in our digital systems and capabilities and $0.05 of higher taxes.

最後，我們也預計其他項目將帶來 0.16 美元的阻力，主要包括由於我們在數位系統和能力方面的投資而導致的企業費用增加 0.06 美元以及稅收增加 0.05 美元。

All of this brings us to our adjusted EPS outlook range of $6.00 to $6.15 per share.

所有這些都使我們的調整後每股收益預期範圍達到 6.00 美元至 6.15 美元。

Moving to our cash walk, the first piece of our year-over-year growth comes from segment operating profit and working capital.

談到現金流，我們年成長的第一部分來自分部營業利潤和營運資本。

Combined, this will drive an operational improvement of approximately $2.3 billion.

總體而言，這將推動約 23 億美元的營運改善。

Specific to working capital, we expect a year-over-year improvement of approximately $1.3 billion, with the majority coming from inventory and contract assets as we deliver commercial OE product, achieve defense delivery milestones, and improve our supplier inputs and material throughput.

具體到營運資本，我們預計將年增約 13 億美元，其中大部分來自庫存和合約資產，因為我們交付商業 OE 產品，實現國防交付里程碑，並改善我們的供應商投入和材料產量。

This also includes CapEx where we expect to invest between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion during the year as we continue to expand capacity and accelerate automation efforts to support our long-term organic growth.

這也包括資本支出，我們預計年內將投資 25 億至 27 億美元，因為我們將繼續擴大產能並加快自動化力度，以支持我們的長期有機成長。

Next, the onetime legal and contract matters that we paid last year will not repeat in 2025, resulting in a tailwind of approximately $1.5 billion.

其次，我們去年支付的一次性法律和合約事宜在 2025 年不會重複發生，從而帶來約 15 億美元的順風。

We also see a headwind of approximately $900 million, primarily driven by the absence of an R&D tax-related benefit in the prior year and higher cash taxes in 2025.

我們也看到了約 9 億美元的逆風，主要原因是去年沒有研發稅務相關福利，以及 2025 年現金稅更高。

Finally, we expect powder metal compensation impacts to be between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion, which is up around $100 million year over year at the midpoint.

最後，我們預計粉末金屬補償影響將在 11 億美元至 13 億美元之間，比去年同期增加約 1 億美元。

All in, we expect free cash flow to be between $7 billion to $7.5 billion in 2025.

總體而言，我們預計 2025 年自由現金流將在 70 億美元至 75 億美元之間。

With that, let's turn to slide 10, and I'll provide some details for the segment outlooks.

接下來，讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片，我將提供一些有關細分展望的詳細資訊。

Starting with Collins, we expect full year sales to be up low single digits on an adjusted basis and up mid-single digits organically.

從柯林斯開始，我們預計全年銷售額經調整後將成長低個位數，有機成長將成長中等個位數。

As I already noted, this outlook assumes the completion of the sale of the Actuation business around midyear.

正如我已經指出的，該展望假設 Actuation 業務的出售將在年中左右完成。

Adjusting for this divestiture, we anticipate commercial aftermarket to be up high single digits to low double digits driven by growth in passenger air travel and mods and upgrades volume.

經過此次資產剝離後的調整，我們預期商用售後市場將受到航空客運量和改裝及升級量成長的推動，實現高個位數至低兩位數的成長。

Commercial OE sales are expected to be up mid-single digits as increased volume on multiple platforms is partially offset by impacts from the expected timing of our customers' production ramps.

由於多個平台的銷售成長被客戶預期的生產提升時間的影響部分抵消，因此預計商業 OE 銷售額將成長中等個位數。

And defense is expected to be up low single digits on top of the 9% growth we saw in 2024.

預計國防開支將在 2024 年 9% 的成長基礎上再成長個位數。

With respect to Collins' adjusted operating profit, we expect it to grow between $500 million and $600 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher volume across all three channels as well as higher pricing and continued progress on cost reduction efforts across the business.

至於柯林斯的調整後營業利潤，我們預計它將比上年增長 5 億至 6 億美元，這得益於三個渠道銷售的增加、價格的上漲以及整個業務成本削減工作的持續進展。

Finally, this includes an approximately $80 million headwind associated with the Actuation divestiture.

最後，這包括與 Actuation 資產剝離相關的約 8000 萬美元的逆風。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney, we expect full year sales to be up high single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis.

轉向普惠公司，我們預計全年銷售額在調整後和有機基礎上都將實現高個位數成長。

By channel, we expect commercial aftermarket to be up low double digits due to higher volume across large commercial engines and Pratt Canada.

從通路來看，我們預計商用售後市場將實現低兩位數成長，這得益於大型商用引擎和普惠加拿大的銷售增加。

Commercial OE is expected to be up mid-single digits with another year similar large commercial engine unit delivery growth, partially offset by mixed headwinds.

預計商用 OE 將成長中等個位數，大型商用引擎單位的交付量也將在未來一年內成長，但部分將被混合不利因素所抵消。

And military sales are expected to be up mid-single digits, driven by sustainment activity across the F135 and F100 platforms and the F135 Engine Core Upgrade program.

受 F135 和 F100 平台維持活動以及 F135 發動機核心升級計劃的推動，軍用銷售額預計將增長中等個位數。

For Pratt's adjusted operating profit, we expect growth of between $325 million and $400 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by drop-through on commercial aftermarket and military growth.

對於普惠的調整後營業利潤，我們預計將比上年增長 3.25 億美元至 4 億美元，主要原因是商用售後市場和軍用市場成長的下降。

This will be partially offset by increased commercial OE deliveries and mix within that channel.

這將透過增加商業 OE 交付量和該通路內的產品組合來部分抵消。

And at Raytheon, we expect sales to grow mid-single digits organically as double-digit growth in land and air defense systems is partially offset by lower development volume.

在雷神公司，我們預計銷售額將實現中等個位數有機成長，因為陸地和防空系統的兩位數成長被較低的開發量部分抵消。

Raytheon's adjusted operating profit is expected to be up between $150 million and $225 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher volume, favorable contract mix, and improved net productivity.

雷神公司的調整後營業利潤預計將比上年增加 1.5 億美元至 2.25 億美元，這得益於銷量增加、合約組合有利以及淨生產率提高。

Also keep in mind, there is an approximately $35 million headwind associated with the sale of the Cybersecurity business in the first quarter of last year.

還要記住，去年第一季出售網路安全業務帶來了約 3500 萬美元的逆風。

In addition, we've included an outlook for some of the below-the-line items in the appendix of our webcast.

此外，我們在網路廣播的附錄中也包含了一些低於標準項目的展望。

All in, 2025 is expected to be another strong year of performance for RTX.

總而言之，預計 2025 年將是 RTX 又一個表現強勁的一年。

A lot has changed since we issued the original 2025 target several years ago.

自從幾年前我們提出最初的 2025 年目標以來，很多事情都改變了。

And while there have been some updates, the fundamental value drivers of the company and cash generation potential have not changed.

雖然有一些更新，但公司的根本價值驅動因素和現金創造潛力並未改變。

Okay.

好的。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Chris.

說完這些，我會把話題轉回給克里斯。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

I'm on slide 11.

我在第 11 張投影片。

As I said upfront, I'm pleased with how we ended 2024 and the momentum we have heading into 2025.

正如我之前所說，我對我們 2024 年的結束以及邁向 2025 年的勢頭感到滿意。

The growth we've achieved over the last few years has been remarkable, and we continue to make the right investments to advance our market-leading technologies and capabilities well into the future.

我們在過去幾年中取得了顯著的成長，並且我們將繼續進行正確的投資，以在未來進一步推進我們市場領先的技術和能力。

Looking ahead, we are a focused, technology-driven aerospace and defense company that is aligned with strong macroeconomic growth drivers and well-positioned on the right industry growth platforms.

展望未來，我們是一家專注、技術驅動的航空航太和國防公司，與強勁的宏觀經濟成長動力保持一致，並在正確的產業成長平台上佔據有利地位。

Combined with technology synergies across our products and a strong balance sheet that enables us to innovate at scale, I'm confident we can drive sustainable growth in sales, margin and cash flow generation, resulting in significant long-term returns to shareowners.

結合我們產品的技術協同效應和強大的資產負債表，使我們能夠大規模創新，我相信我們能夠推動銷售額、利潤率和現金流的可持續成長，從而為股東帶來可觀的長期回報。

Okay.

好的。

With that, let's open it up for questions.

現在，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

Maybe, Chris, on powder metal and the GTF, there wasn't a lot of discussion.

也許，克里斯，關於粉末金屬和 GTF，並沒有太多的討論。

So I'm taking that as good news that you're still on track, still on plan.

因此，我認為這是好消息，你仍在按計劃進行。

And maybe just to put a point to it, it looks like your cash expectation for spend in '25 is the same.

也許只是為了說明一下，看起來您對 25 年的現金支出預期是相同的。

Are we still on track for the $800 million to $1 billion step-down in 2026?

我們是否仍有望在 2026 年實現 8 億美元至 10 億美元的降幅？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Myles.

謝謝，邁爾斯。

Let me go through the main components here.

讓我介紹一下這裡的主要組件。

As I said upfront, the outlook remains consistent and the underlying technical and inspection assumptions all remain intact, so good news.

正如我之前所說的，前景保持一致，並且基本的技術和檢查假設都保持不變，所以這是好消息。

AOGs have been stable.

AOG 一直很穩定。

And now look, I said this before, MRO output is the key enabler.

現在看，我之前說過，MRO 輸出是關鍵推動因素。

We saw some very good progress last year.

去年我們取得了一些非常好的進展。

PW1100 output was up 30% last year, so very good progress in terms of material flow and in-shop performance.

去年，PW1100 的產量增加了 30%，因此在物料流和車間性能方面取得了非常好的進展。

But we need to continue to ramp output to bend the curve here as we work our way through 2025.

但我們需要繼續提高產量來扭轉這一趨勢，直至 2025 年。

And we talked about a plan here of above 30% growth in 2025, and that's going to be critical.

我們在這裡討論了到 2025 年實現 30% 以上成長的計劃，這將是至關重要的。

Now the supply chain is going to be instrumental in helping us get there.

現在供應鏈將發揮重要作用來幫助我們實現這一目標。

And we've continued to see improvement there.

而且我們不斷看到那裡的改善。

Structural castings were up 12% year over year.

結構鑄件年增12%。

Isothermal forgings output was up significantly.

等溫鍛件產量大幅成長。

And of course, that's important as we incorporate full life powder metal parts into MRO.

當然，這很重要，因為我們將全壽命粉末金屬零件納入 MRO 中。

As you know, it's already going into new engine deliveries.

正如您所知，它已經投入新引擎交付。

So again, there are a lot of puts and takes, as you might imagine, as we're going through this process.

因此，正如你可能想像的那樣，在我們經歷這個過程時，會有很多的困難和挫折。

And our 100% focus, again, is on bending the AOG curve, to make sure that we get the assets back into our customers' hands as quickly as possible.

我們再次全心全意地致力於降低 AOG 曲線，以確保將資產盡快交還到客戶手中。

And Myles, on the cash side, I think if you think back over the last couple of years, we started out with a placeholder of $0.5 billion.

邁爾斯，在現金方面，如果你回顧過去幾年，我想我們一開始的佔位資金是 5 億美元。

We were able to defer that.

我們能夠推遲這項事項。

Last year, in '24, we ended at about $1.1 billion, so a little ahead of where we had estimated.

去年，也就是 24 年，我們的營收約為 11 億美元，比我們預期的略高一些。

And as you can see from today's comments, we see between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion for '25.

從今天的評論中您可以看到，我們預計 25 年的收入將在 11 億美元至 13 億美元之間。

We're going to continue to work with our customers to manage the timing of those cash flows.

我們將繼續與客戶合作來管理這些現金流的時間。

Right now, I'd say we have the residual amount parked in 2026.

現在，我想說我們的剩餘金額將在 2026 年存入。

Could that go out a little bit further?

能再走遠一點嗎？

Perhaps.

也許。

We want to make sure we manage the cash carefully on this program.

我們希望確保謹慎管理該專案的現金。

We're happy with where we are with the customer agreements that we have in place right now with the vast majority of the AOGs are under a customer support agreement already.

我們對目前與客戶簽訂的協議感到滿意，絕大多數 AOG 都已簽訂了客戶支援協議。

So we feel good about the profile that we've laid out so far.

因此，我們對迄今為止制定的概況感到滿意。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Nice results.

效果不錯。

Chris, on the -- so new administration, new spending priorities.

克里斯，關於新政府、新的支出重點。

How are you thinking with how Raytheon is aligned in terms of any replenishing stockpiles and how you see kind of that playing out for you?

您如何看待雷神公司在補充庫存方面的舉措，以及您認為這對您有何影響？

You've got a huge international mix.

你們擁有龐大的國際組合。

I think you're 44%, just how do you see kind of the uplift that's coming from the international side along with opportunities you're seeing on the replenishment side with the new administration?

我認為您的比例是 44%，那麼您如何看待國際方面的提升以及新政府在補給方面所看到的機會？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

Good question.

好問題。

Well, and you sort of led with it up front, right, the demand for our products continues to be really strong, right?

好吧，您一開始就提到了這一點，對吧，我們產品的需求持續保持強勁，對吧？

Raytheon has a $63 billion backlog, 1.48 book-to-bill.

雷神公司的未交付訂單價值為 630 億美元，訂單出貨比為 1.48。

As I said in my comments upfront, you've got 30-plus systems in operation in conflicts today defending the US and our allies very, very effectively.

正如我在前面的評論中所說，在今天的衝突中，你們有超過 30 個系統在運行，非常非常有效地保衛美國和我們的盟友。

In the US, it's about replenishment, as you referenced.

正如您所說，在美國，這與補貨有關。

As you move across the world, Europe, this is about integrated air and missile defense, continuing to replenish effectors, GEM-T, AMRAAM, and the like.

當你走遍世界各地，歐洲，這是關於綜合防空和飛彈防禦，繼續補充效應器、GEM-T、AMRAAM 等。

And as you move to Asia Pac, it's more on naval munitions, the standard family, SM-3, SM-6, continuing to ramp up there.

而說到亞太地區，更多的是海軍彈藥，標準系列 SM-3、SM-6 在那裡繼續增加。

So overall, again, we continue to see international demand to be very strong.

因此，總體而言，我們繼續看到國際需求非常強勁。

The NATO countries are continuing either to commit or actually spend above the 2% target, you think of what you're seeing in Poland, it's coming up on almost 5%.

北約國家繼續承諾或實際支出超過 2% 的目標，想想波蘭的情況，它已經達到了近 5%。

Again, international demand continues to be strong.

再次，國際需求持續強勁。

We've seen that in our backlog, and that will be a tailwind for us.

我們已經在積壓訂單中看到了這一點，這對我們來說將是一個順風。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦 (Ron Epstein)。

Yesterday, the Air Force bumped up their contract for NGAP to about $3.5 billion, a big number.

昨天，空軍將 NGAP 合約金額提高到約 35 億美元，這是一個很大的數字。

Where do you guys stand on the program?

你們對這個節目的看法是什麼？

Where are we?

我們在哪裡？

How do we think about it?

我們該如何看待這個問題？

Kind of what's going on with that next-generation engine?

下一代引擎到底怎麼樣？

Yeah, I'll take that one, Ron, it's Chris.

是的，我會選擇這個，羅恩，他是克里斯。

So look, regardless of where NGAD is and the timing, and there's been a lot in the public out there, we've continued to develop our NGAP solution.

所以，無論 NGAD 在哪裡、何時出現，以及公眾對此有何看法，我們都將繼續開發我們的 NGAP 解決方案。

We've gone through rigorous testing over the last few years.

過去幾年我們經歷了嚴格的測試。

We've been really pleased with the results there.

我們對那裡的結果非常滿意。

I can't get into too many of the details, as you might imagine.

正如您可能想像的那樣，我無法談論太多細節。

But this is something where we've had a lot of resources on it and have been very pleased with the testing that we have seen.

但我們已經在這方面投入了大量資源，並且對所看到的測試感到非常滿意。

And this funding will help us continue in that area, continuing to drive down any risks on the key requirements that are there.

這些資金將幫助我們繼續在該領域努力，不斷降低那裡關鍵要求帶來的風險。

So very pleased with that award.

我對這個獎項感到非常高興。

And again, we think we're going to have a very competitive offering.

我們認為我們將提供非常有競爭力的產品。

And how much of a tailwind is that for Pratt this year?

那麼，這對普拉特今年的順風有多大？

Or I mean, how do we think about that just kind of on the financial side?

或者我的意思是，從財務角度來看我們如何看待這個問題？

Well, I'd say between the Engine Core Upgrade on the F135 program and this work that we're doing, we've got Pratt in at mid-single-digit growth for the military side of their business.

嗯，我想說，在 F135 項目的發動機核心升級和我們正在做的工作之間，我們使普惠的軍事業務取得了中等個位數的增長。

Clearly, a tailwind here, Ron, I see this continuing to grow.

顯然，這裡有順風，羅恩，我看到它繼續增長。

As you know, more broadly speaking, a lot of the older aircraft continue to fly.

如你所知，從更廣泛的角度來看，許多老式飛機仍在繼續飛行。

The aftermarket remains strong.

售後市場依然強勁。

So I'd say, by and large, this is a tailwind for Pratt, and happy to see this funding being put in place over the next number of years to continue this development.

因此我想說，總的來說，這對普惠來說是一個順風，我很高興看到這筆資金在未來幾年內到位，以繼續這一發展。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Neil, are there any components of the free cash flow outlook in 2025 that you would call out as potentially normalizing or reversing in 2026 apart from, of course, the powder metal costs?

尼爾，除了粉末金屬成本之外，您認為 2025 年自由現金流前景中還有哪些因素可能在 2026 年正常化或逆轉？

And I'm mainly just trying to get a sense of whether this broader working capital improvement is to remain a persistent tailwind beyond 2025.

我主要想了解這種更廣泛的營運資本改善是否會在 2025 年後繼續保持順風態勢。

Sure.

當然。

I appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

I know there's been a lot of focus on our cash flow, and we're focused on that entirely here within the company as well.

我知道大家非常關注我們的現金流，而且我們在公司內部也完全關注這一點。

And so as we look at the outlook that we just put out for '25 , think about $7.2 billion at the midpoint and about $1.2 billion of powder metal.

因此，當我們看一下我們剛剛提出的25年前景時，中間值約為72億美元，粉末金屬約為12億美元。

So you just do the math there, operationally, about $8.4 billion.

因此，您只需計算一下，從營運角度來看，大約需要 84 億美元。

Now there's a $1.3 billion working capital tailwind baked into that year-over-year improvement.

現在，這一同比增長帶來了 13 億美元的營運資本順風。

But as you can see from the level of inventory we have and the level of contract assets, we think we've got additional runway to continue to improve working capital turns as we move beyond 2025.

但正如您從我們的庫存水準和合約資產水準所看到的那樣，我們認為，在 2025 年以後，我們還有更多的空間來繼續改善營運資金周轉率。

So we have a lot of work to do here in 2025 already, but we're very confident.

因此，我們在 2025 年還有很多工作要做，但我們非常有信心。

We've been focused on this for a couple of years.

我們已經關注這個問題好幾年了。

Didn't get there last year, but I think we're well-stocked to support the ramps of our customers in that regard.

去年沒有做到這一點，但我認為我們有足夠的庫存來支持我們客戶在這方面的成長。

The only other non-recurring item, if you will, that I think about in '25, we've got a couple of hundred million dollars set aside for an international tax payment that we'll be making here in the first quarter following a court finding that came out early this year.

如果你願意的話，我想到 25 年唯一的其他非經常性項目是，我們已經撥出了數億美元用於支付國際稅，根據今年年初的法庭裁決，我們將在第一季度支付這筆錢。

And there's always a couple of puts and takes.

而且總是會發生一些得失之交臂。

But by and large, I'd say that $8 billion to $8.5 billion range is a fairly strong operational baseline.

但總的來說，我認為 80 億至 85 億美元的範圍是一個相當強勁的營運基準。

Great.

偉大的。

And Chris, just to clarify, has Boeing restarted issuing purchase orders for 737 MAX avionics equipment yet?

克里斯，我想澄清一下，波音公司是否已經重新開始發放 737 MAX 航空電子設備的採購訂單？

Yeah, Scott.

是的，斯科特。

We're back with Boeing working the ramp, as you might imagine.

正如您所想像的那樣，我們又回到了波音公司的坡道上。

Frankly, we were working even throughout the strike making sure that we were ready to go when they ramp back up.

坦白說，甚至在罷工期間，我們也一直在努力工作，以確保當他們再次加緊努力時，我們已經做好準備。

Continue to engage closely with them on that.

繼續就此與他們密切合作。

Rob Stallard, Vertical Research.

Rob Stallard，垂直研究。

It's probably a question for Neil.

這可能是尼爾要問的問題。

On the 2025 aerospace OEM guidance, it looks pretty conservative compared to what Airbus and Boeing are currently saying.

關於2025年航空航天OEM指導，與空中巴士和波音目前的說法相比，它看起來相當保守。

So wondering if you built some contingency into your forecast or if there's anything going on with inventory, for example, that's impacting that guidance?

所以想知道您是否在預測中考慮了一些應急因素，或者庫存方面是否有任何事情影響了該指導？

Sure.

當然。

Yeah.

是的。

Let me make a couple of comments.

請容許我發表幾點評論。

Rob, let me start with the Collins side, understand the question with production rates anticipated to be going up considerably, there's obviously a little bit of inventory in the channel here, and we've taken a prudent approach, I think, at this time of the year to contemplate that in the Collins outlook.

羅布，讓我先從柯林斯方面說起，了解一下預計生產率將大幅上升的問題，這裡的渠道中顯然有一些庫存，我認為，在今年的這個時候，我們採取了審慎的方式來考慮柯林斯的前景。

It's not across the board.

這並不是全面的。

I think it's targeted to specific systems within the narrow-body value stream.

我認為它針對的是窄體價值流中的特定係統。

But as we look through the year, we expect the ramp to continue to go up, and as you can tell from the inventory levels that we have at Collins, feel well-positioned to meet a rising rate ramp should we see a faster growth as the year unfolds.

但回顧這一年，我們預計成長率將繼續上升，從柯林斯的庫存水準可以看出，如果隨著時間的推移看到更快的成長，我們感覺我們有能力應對不斷上升的利率。

On the Pratt side, maybe just a couple of comments for additional color there as well.

在普拉特方面，也許只需要幾個評論來增加色彩。

Large commercial engines, we were up 14% in unit deliveries last year.

大型商用發動機，去年我們的交車量成長了14%。

I expect a similar level of unit growth as we look to 2025.

我預計到 2025 年單位成長水準將與現在類似。

And then as you look at Pratt Canada, they were relatively flat, up about 1% on their units, but we expect that to tick up as well in '25, probably similar to what we're seeing on the large commercial engines side in terms of units.

然後，當您看到普惠加拿大時，他們的銷量相對平穩，增長了約 1％，但我們預計在 25 年他們的銷量也會上升，可能與我們在大型商用發動機方面看到的銷量情況相似。

Offsetting that, of course, is a little bit of mix headwind, but we're pretty happy with the performance that Pratt generated at the end of the year.

當然，抵消這一點的因素有一點混合逆風，但我們對普拉特在年底的業績感到非常滿意。

Good pricing on their engines, and we see that continuing as we get into '25.

他們的引擎定價合理，而且我們預計這種情況將持續到2025年。

Now a little bit early to kind of get ahead of ourselves here, but if there's upside, we're prepared to, and capacitized, to meet that growing ramp.

現在談論這些有點早，但如果有好處，我們已經做好準備，有能力去滿足這個成長需求。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe just still picking up on commercial aero on Pratt.

或許，普惠公司仍在關注商用航空。

In 2024, if we look at the OE growth, it was about 21%.

到 2024 年，如果我們看一下 OE 成長率，它約為 21%。

GTF deliveries were up 14%.

GTF交付量成長了14%。

So is that 7-point delta all price on spares on GTF?

那麼 GTF 的 7 點增量都是備品價格嗎？

How do we think about that in '25?

在 25 年我們該如何看待這個問題？

And on Pratt EBIT growth of $350 million at the midpoint, or $370 million, does that all drop through to the free cash flow bridge too, Neil?

那麼，普拉特的息稅前利潤中間值增長 3.5 億美元或 3.7 億美元，這些是否也都落到了自由現金流橋上呢，尼爾？

Is there -- how do we think about negative engine margin factoring in, more investment in GTFA and just aftermarket incremental?

我們如何看待負發動機利潤率因素、對 GTFA 的更多投資以及售後市場的增量？

Yeah.

是的。

So let me start with the OE top line and then I'll move to the -- how that's dropping through in our walk for '25.

因此，讓我先從 OE 頂線開始，然後我將轉到 — — 它在我們 25 年的步行中是如何下降的。

We had a good mix of engines delivered last year at Pratt.

去年我們向普惠公司交付了多種類型的引擎。

And so as I look at this year, I think we'll see a modest tilt towards more installs, but we're still going to see a very robust level of demand for spare engines.

因此，回顧今年，我認為我們將看到安裝量略有增加，但我們仍將看到對備用引擎的強勁需求。

As you know, the fleet is in need of that support, and there's plenty of demand out there, and we're getting good pricing on those.

正如您所知，船隊需要這種支持，而且市場需求很大，我們正在獲得很好的定價。

So I expect that to continue.

因此我預計這種情況將會持續下去。

In light of that mix shift, as we think about the '25 walk, the majority of Pratt's profit growth will come from aftermarket.

考慮到這種組合轉變，當我們思考 25 年的發展時，普惠的大部分利潤成長將來自售後市場。

We're going to see really good drop-through on the aftermarket, probably to the tune of $500 million or so.

我們將會看到售後市場的大幅下降，降幅可能達到 5 億美元左右。

You'll see your expected level of drop-through on the military side of the growth in the business.

您會看到軍事方面的業務成長出現預期的下降。

And offsetting that, of course, is going to be some negative engine margin headwind.

當然，與此相抵消的將是一些負的引擎利潤率逆風。

I'd put that in the range of $150 to $200 million kind of range as we see the volumes continue to tick up.

由於我們看到交易量持續上升，我認為這個數字應該在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間。

But as I've said for a long time now, getting these engines out in the field is healthy for the fleet, and it just gets us started faster on getting to the aftermarket phase.

但正如我很久以前說過的，將這些引擎投入到現場對於車隊來說是有益的，而且它讓我們更快地進入售後市場階段。

And as you think about the aftermarket phase of the GTF today, sitting in a really good position.

當您考慮當今 GTF 的售後市場階段時，它處於一個非常有利的地位。

It's growing at a robust rate, it is profitable, and we've been profitable for several years.

它正以強勁的速度成長，而且獲利，而且我們已經獲利好幾年了。

And I think there's continued runway not just on the margin side, but as you know, given the nature of these agreements, those future shop visits are going to come with cash payments.

我認為，這不僅在利潤方面有持續的成長空間，而且如你所知，考慮到這些協議的性質，未來的店鋪訪問將以現金支付。

And so that will create additional tailwind for Pratt & Whitney and for RTX as we look out over the next few years.

因此，從未來幾年來看，這將為普惠公司和 RTX 創造額外的順風。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。

Maybe a question and maybe a tag on a quick clarification at the end.

也許是一個問題，也許是一個最後的快速澄清的標籤。

On the question, the age of the fleet is obviously supporting growth in the aftermarket at Collins.

關於這個問題，車隊的年齡顯然支持了柯林斯售後市場的成長。

When you think about growth from here, how do you think about production and deliveries back about five or six years ago as we headed into the COVID period, the number of planes that are coming off warranty and how that's going to affect aftermarket growth at Collins?

當您考慮現在的成長時，您如何看待五、六年前，當我們進入新冠疫情時期時，有多少飛機超出保固期，以及這將如何影響柯林斯的售後市場成長？

And then just quickly if you could talk about the number of large engine deliveries you expect at Pratt this year?

然後您能否快速談談今年普惠預計交付的大型引擎數量？

Seth, let me start maybe on just the installed base kind of comment.

塞思，讓我先從安裝基礎方面來評論一下。

We've been talking a bit about we were at, obviously, lows of deliveries back in the 2020, 2021 time period, with each year thereafter growing.

我們一直在談論，2020 年和 2021 年期間，我們的交付量顯然處於低位，此後每年都在增長。

And as Collins delivers new products, they are under warranty for a period of time.

柯林斯交付的新產品都享有一段時間的保固期。

So you can expect that each year that rolls off a warranty is larger than the year that preceded it, at least for the last several years.

因此，你可以預期，每一年的保固期限都比前一年長，至少在過去幾年是如此。

So I expect that to continue to provide some tailwind on to the Collins installed base.

因此我預計這將繼續為柯林斯的安裝基礎提供一些推動力。

Think about it, they've got $160 billion installed base out there.

想想看，他們已經擁有價值 1,600 億美元的安裝基礎。

And so it's going to begin generating even greater volumes of aftermarket going forward.

因此，它將在未來開始產生更大的售後市場銷售。

So that's how I think about the aftermarket there.

這就是我對那裡售後市場的看法。

And just to follow up, Pratt is similarly situated.

順便說一下，普拉特的情況也類似。

There were about 800 V2500 shop visits in 2024.

2024 年，V2500 進店維修次數約 800 次。

We see about the same exact number as we look at '25.

我們看到的數字與 25 年的數字大致相同。

So continued robust demand, retirements are very low.

由於需求持續強勁，退休人數非常少。

And we expect that to continue as well for the next several years at least.

我們預計，至少在未來幾年內，這種情況還會持續下去。

And in addition, we're getting good content on those shop visits because 20% of those engines haven't seen their first shop visit yet and only 55% have seen one.

此外，我們在這些商店訪問中獲得了很好的內容，因為 20% 的引擎還沒有看到他們的第一次商店訪問，而只有 55% 的引擎看到了一次。

So we've got plenty of tailwind in the installed base of both of those businesses looking over the next five years.

因此，展望未來五年，我們將在這兩大業務的安裝基數上獲得很大的推動力。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on the deliveries?

然後是交貨情況？

Yeah.

是的。

So yes, just to clarify here, we had about 14% growth in the units delivered of large commercial engines in '24.

是的，這裡需要澄清的是，24年我們大型商用引擎的交付量增加了約14%。

We expect about the same growth in '25.

我們預計25年的成長幅度大致相同。

Jason Gursky, Citi Research.

花旗研究部的 Jason Gursky 說。

Chris, I was wondering if you could spend a few minutes talking about your top three or four priorities for the year.

克里斯，我想知道您是否可以花幾分鐘談談您今年的三到四個首要任務。

I suspect some of that will be productivity.

我認為其中有些將會提高生產力。

So I'm just kind of curious to get an update on productivity across the company, maybe where you are relative to where we were pre-pandemic and what it's going to take to get us back to the productivity that you saw then.

因此，我只是有點好奇，想了解整個公司的生產力最新情況，也許想知道與疫情之前相比，你們現在的生產力水平如何，以及如何才能讓我們恢復到當時的生產力水平。

And then Iron Dome, what does that mean?

那麼鐵穹防禦系統又意味著什麼呢？

What kind of opportunity is there for you all if we do really put up an Iron Dome here in the United States?

如果我們真的在美國建立起鐵穹防禦系統，你們會得到什麼樣的機會呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

So on the priority front, as you might imagine, with a $218 billion backlog, our number one priority is executing on that backlog and executing on our commitments.

因此，在優先事項方面，正如您可能想像的那樣，面對 2,180 億美元的積壓訂單，我們的首要任務是完成這些積壓訂單並履行我們的承諾。

And I'll tag on, of course, the GTF recovery plan there and making sure that we continue to ramp MRO.

當然，我會附加 GTF 恢復計劃，並確保我們繼續增加 MRO。

The demand out there continues to be robust, both defense and commercial.

無論是國防還是商業，市場需求依然強勁。

Our customers need our products.

我們的客戶需要我們的產品。

And so we've got to just continue to ramp.

所以我們必須繼續加大力度。

On the Pratt and Collins side, we've got to continue to have a healthy supply chain to make that happen.

在普惠柯林斯方面，我們必須繼續擁有健康的供應鏈才能實現這一目標。

We have a number of people embedded in our supply chain for that reason.

基於這個原因，我們在供應鏈中嵌入了大量人員。

At Raytheon, we've seen it's now the seventh quarter in a row of material receipt growth, so happy about that.

在雷神公司，我們已經看到公司材料收入連續第七個季度成長，對此我們感到非常高興。

We need to continue to ramp on rocket motors.

我們需要繼續加強火箭發動機。

I'd say, on some programs, Jason, we're in a healthier position.

我想說，傑森，在某些項目上，我們處於更健康的狀態。

On others, we're falling behind.

在其他方面，我們落後了。

But again, this is all about executing on the backlog.

但再次強調，這一切都是為了執行積壓的工作。

Now a key piece of that, of course, is kind of your second question, which is on productivity.

當然，其中一個關鍵部分是您的第二個問題，即關於生產力的問題。

You heard what I said upfront, 11% sales growth, 2% head count growth.

您聽到了我前面說的話，銷售額成長 11%，員工人數成長 2%。

These are the kinds of initiatives that we need to continue to drive in order to deliver the backlog at the margins that we've committed to.

為了按照我們所承諾的利潤率完成積壓任務，我們需要繼續推動這些措施。

Again, a big part of that will be our CORE operating system, continuing to increase the number of engagements.

再次強調，其中很大一部分將是我們的核心作業系統，繼續增加參與次數。

And those are things you just see across the business, leaning out our factories, leaning out our processes, just becoming more efficient, all around driving waste out of the system.

這些都是你在整個業務中看到的事情，精簡我們的工廠，精簡我們的流程，變得更加高效，全面消除系統中的浪費。

And we're also making investments, Jason, in automation, in AI, things that will continue to drive productivity without the need to add headcount, again, doing things faster and cheaper along the way.

傑森，我們也正在自動化、人工智慧方面進行投資，這些技術將持續提高生產力，而無需增加員工，而且在過程中可以更快、更便宜地完成工作。

And then your third question on Iron Dome.

然後是關於鐵穹防禦系統的第三個問題。

Well, look, as you know, we're a major partner in Israel's Iron Dome today.

嗯，如你所知，我們今天是以色列鐵穹防禦系統的主要合作夥伴。

I suspect, in the US, you're going to probably need to evolve that to address different types of potential threats, perhaps longer-range strikes, protection of infrastructure.

我認為，在美國，你可能需要發展這種技術來應對不同類型的潛在威脅，也許是遠端打擊、保護基礎設施。

But again, layered integrated air and missile defense systems are core to us.

但再說一遍，分層一體化防空反導系統對我們來說是核心。

It's the bedrock of Raytheon, and they are among the best at it.

這是雷神公司的基石，他們是這方面的佼佼者之一。

And so we're ready to engage on this as it takes shape over the study period.

因此，我們已準備好在研究期間參與其中並逐步形成。

We view this as a significant opportunity for us, something right in our wheelhouse.

我們認為這對我們來說是一個重要的機會，而這正是我們能夠掌控的事情。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納（Gautam Khanna），TD Cowen。

I was wondering if you could just broadly comment on the supply chain, where you're still seeing constraints?

我想知道您是否可以廣泛地評論供應鏈，您認為其中還有哪些限制？

In the past, you've talked about heat exchangers and seats and the like.

過去，您曾談到熱交換器和座椅之類的東西。

It sounds like at Pratt, the output is getting a lot better.

聽起來普拉特的產出要好得多。

But if you could just talk broadly where the pinch points are and kind of how those have progressed maybe over the last 90 days.

但是，如果您可以大致談談困難所在，以及過去 90 天困難的進展。

Yeah.

是的。

A lot of the pinch points and the areas of focus are just as I was going through previously.

很多關鍵點和重點領域都跟我之前經歷過的一樣。

Again, structural castings for us, 12% year-over-year growth at Pratt, need that to continue to ramp.

再次，對我們來說，普惠的結構鑄件同比增長了 12％，需要這一增長才能繼續上升。

Need to continue to ramp in isothermal forging production.

需繼續提高等溫鍛造產量。

We own a lot of that value stream, but there's other pieces of it that we don't.

我們擁有大部分價值流，但其他部分我們不擁有。

We need to continue to see that ramp up.

我們需要繼續看到這種上升趨勢。

Collins, it's been microelectronics, generally speaking.

柯林斯，一般來說，這是微電子技術。

We've seen those lead times come back into line, so feel good about that.

我們看到這些交貨時間已經回到正軌，因此感覺很好。

At Collins, there's really like 33 suppliers that drive about 50% of the overdue line items, and so laser-focused on those 33 with people embedded there to drive that.

在柯林斯，實際上有 33 家供應商佔據了逾期專案的 50% 左右，因此公司專注於這 33 家供應商，並派專人負責推動這一進程。

And then again, at Raytheon, the big piece, of course, rocket motors, as I just mentioned.

當然，對雷神公司來說，最重要的部分當然是火箭發動機，就像我剛才提到的那樣。

We're seeing progress on some programs, need to ramp on others.

我們看到一些專案取得了進展，需要加強其他專案。

So as your question suggests, the supply chain is going to be critical to executing on the backlog that I just mentioned.

正如你的問題所暗示的，供應鏈對於完成我剛才提到的積壓訂單至關重要。

And so it's a critical focus area for us.

因此，這是我們關注的關鍵領域。

You mentioned seating and heat exchangers.

您提到了座椅和熱交換器。

I'll just say on the interiors business, sort of writ large at Collins, saw double-digit sales growth last year.

我只想說，就內裝業務而言，柯林斯的內裝業務去年實現了兩位數的銷售成長。

So feel good about the trajectory as that business continues to recover.

因此，隨著業務持續復甦，我們對發展軌跡感到樂觀。

Seating specifically, we continue to work through the certification there.

具體來說，我們將繼續在那裡開展座位認證工作。

These are complex, especially on the first class and business seats, and the certification requirements are relatively high.

這些比較複雜，特別是頭等艙和商務艙，認證要求也比較高。

They've got a high bar there.

他們那裡的標準很高。

But we think we have our arms around those and what we need to do there to get those certified, to the airframers, and then out to our customers.

但我們認為我們已經掌握了這些知識，並且知道我們需要做什麼才能獲得這些產品的認證，並將其交付給飛機製造商，然後交付給我們的客戶。

And then on heat exchangers, I would tell you that we continue to make progress on the production ramp and the recovery.

然後關於熱交換器，我想告訴你，我們在生產提升和復甦方面繼續取得進展。

Doubled production output last year and remain on track to recover to the needs of our customers here in 2025, so feel good about the progress there.

去年產量翻了一番，並預計在 2025 年恢復滿足客戶的需求，因此對那裡的進展感到滿意。

Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的馬特‧艾克斯 (Matt Akers)。

Can you touch on pension?

能談談退休金嗎？

It looks like FAS/CAS a little bit of a headwind in '25.

看起來 FAS/CAS 在 25 年會遇到一些阻力。

Is the thought that that will still sort of lead lower in the out years?

是否認為未來幾年價格仍會走低？

And if so, what's kind of the headwind we should think about for FAS and CAS?

如果是這樣，我們應該考慮 FAS 和 CAS 面臨的哪些不利因素？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

Yeah, we definitely see a headwind here, $0.15 as we outlined in our outlook.

是的，我們確實看到了這裡的阻力，正如我們在展望中所概述的那樣，為 0.15 美元。

Our plans remain really well-funded.

我們的計劃資金仍然充足。

In fact, we ended the year with a funded status of 104%.

事實上，到今年年底，我們的資助情況已達 104%。

And so as a result, over the last number of years now, we've employed a de-risking path, which essentially is enabling us to design a plan to protect that funded status.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們採用了一種去風險化的途徑，這本質上使我們能夠設計一個計劃來保護資金狀況。

And so as a result of that, we will expect to see the income come down a little bit, and it has.

因此，我們預期收入會下降，事實也確實如此。

But by and large, the plans that we've put in place for the pension remain really, really strong.

但總的來說，我們為退休金制定的計劃仍然非常非常強勁。

We continue to see income and expect to have significant income beyond, but it will trail off a little bit each year after 2025.

我們繼續看到收入，並預計未來將有可觀的收入，但在 2025 年之後，每年收入都會有所下降。

So obviously, there's a lot of assumptions that go into the pension.

顯然，退休金涉及很多假設。

But by and large, we're in a really good position as we exited '24, and expect that to continue.

但總的來說，我們在退出24年時處於一個非常有利的地位，並且預計這種狀況將持續下去。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Chris or Neil, you called out provisioning in particular as a real source of strength for the aftermarket at Collins in the fourth quarter.

克里斯或尼爾，你們特別指出撥備是柯林斯第四季售後真正的力量來源。

As you think about the, call it, 10% growth in '25, can you provide -- for Collins in particular, can you provide any disaggregation of provisioning versus the repair parts of the business?

當您考慮所謂的 25 年 10% 的成長率時，您能否提供 - 特別是對於 Collins，您能否提供業務的撥備與維修部分的分類？

And I guess as part of that, is there any incremental risk you're seeing around destocking at airlines as they think about spare parts across the Collins portfolio?

我想，作為其中的一部分，當航空公司考慮柯林斯產品組合中的備件時，您是否認為航空公司去庫存會帶來任何增量風險？

You're welcome, Ken.

別客氣，肯。

Let me start with the last part.

讓我從最後一部分開始。

We haven't really seen any significant destocking.

我們實際上還沒有看到任何顯著的去庫存現象。

Obviously, the aftermarket growth for the last several years has been tremendous.

顯然，過去幾年售後市場的成長非常驚人。

And I think we're expecting at the RTX level about 10% growth again here in 2025.

我認為我們預計 2025 年 RTX 水準將再次實現 10% 左右的成長率。

If you think about the Collins side of the business in particular, and break it down a little bit, we still see parts and repair up in the high single digits, maybe a little bit better.

如果你特別考慮柯林斯的業務方面，並稍微分解一下，我們仍然會看到零件和維修的增長幅度保持在個位數的高位，甚至可能更好一些。

We're getting really good -- obviously, installed base is growing.

我們的情況非常好 - 顯然，安裝基數正在增長。

I just talked about that, plus we're getting good pricing.

我剛才談到了這一點，而且我們獲得了很好的定價。

On the provisioning, probably a little bit more in line with the OE growth, mid-single digits, which tends to track sort of the install -- or not the install, the delivery of new aircraft.

在配置方面，可能與 OE 成長更一致，中等個位數，這往往追蹤安裝 - 或不是安裝，而是新飛機的交付。

What's going to be a bright spot for Collins this year is mods and upgrades.

今年對柯林斯來說將會是個亮點，那就是改裝和升級。

That will be over 10% coming off a year that was flat.

與持平的一年相比，這一數字將超過 10%。

Obviously, that depends on the kinds of upgrades that are required, often regulatorily driven.

顯然，這取決於所需的升級類型，通常由監管驅動。

But that's another area that's expected to be strong for Collins as we go through 2025.

但隨著我們進入 2025 年，這將是柯林斯有望大力發展的另一個領域。

So feel really good about where we are, and obviously, going back to that installed base of $160 billion, and over at Pratt, it's also very significant, so a lot of tailwind in the aftermarket going forward.

所以，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意，而且顯然，回到 1600 億美元的安裝基數，對於普惠來說，這也是非常重要的，因此未來售後市場將有很大的順風。

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的戴維·施特勞斯（David Strauss）。

Two-part question.

問題分為兩部分。

Neil, first on GTF aftermarket, you gave some rough color there.

尼爾，首先關於 GTF 售後市場，你對此進行了粗略的介紹。

Could you just be a little bit more precise where exactly you're booking GTF aftermarket today, I guess, in 2024 and expectation for '25?

您能否更精確地說明您目前預定 GTF 售後市場的具體時間，我想是 2024 年，以及對 2025 年的預期？

I think previously back at the Investor Day in '23, you talked about getting to mid-teens aftermarket margins on GTF.

我記得早在 1923 年的投資者日上，您就談到將 GTF 的售後市場利潤率提高到十幾歲左右。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And then second question, on Collins, I think you had previously talked about this being a 40%-plus incremental margin business getting close to 20% margins in 2025.

第二個問題，關於柯林斯，我想您之前曾談過，這是一個 40％ 以上的增量利潤業務，到 2025 年利潤率將接近 20％。

We're obviously not going to get there.

顯然我們無法到達那裡。

So what's the right level of incremental margins to think about on Collins going forward?

那麼，未來柯林斯應該考慮的增量利潤率的正確水準是多少呢？

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Dave, for the questions.

謝謝戴夫提出的問題。

Let me start with the aftermarket.

讓我先從售後市場開始說。

Let me give you a little bit of background here.

讓我在這裡向你介紹一些背景。

Obviously, the aftermarket is growing substantially as we do a lot of accelerated shop visits as it relates to the powder metal matter.

顯然，由於我們進行了大量與粉末金屬相關的加速店內訪問，售後市場正在大幅增長。

And the margins are not quite at the mid-teens level, but I will tell you that they're near double digits.

雖然利潤率還沒有達到十幾歲的中段水平，但我可以告訴你，它們接近兩位數。

And if you average the last couple of years, they're over double digits.

如果你計算過去幾年的平均值，你會發現這個數字超過了兩位數。

So we've been doing a good job of getting margin in the aftermarket.

因此，我們在售後市場獲得利潤方面一直做得很好。

And we've talked about some of the EIS contracts that we have here, and as those continue to age out and burn down and get replaced with newer contracts with the airline customers, we're getting good pricing, because the engine is performing really, really well.

我們已經討論過我們這裡的一些 EIS 合同，隨著這些合同不斷老化和燒毀並被與航空公司客戶簽訂的新合同所取代，我們獲得了更好的價格，因為發動機的性能確實非常好。

And so in addition to that, we're putting a lot of new material and enhancements into the engine to improve its durability.

除此之外，我們還在引擎中加入了大量新材料和增強功能，以提高其耐用性。

And as Chris alluded to in our prepared remarks, the GTFA coming online at the end of this year, which Chris will probably comment on in a minute.

正如克里斯在我們準備好的演講中提到的，GTFA 將於今年年底上線，克里斯可能馬上就會對此發表評論。

So all of the right ingredients there for continued growth, certainly on the top line, continued expansion of margins as we move forward.

所以，所有正確的因素都存在，可以實現持續成長，當然，在營收方面，隨著我們前進，利潤率也會持續擴大。

And really pleased to see that for the last several years, this has been a profitable part of the Pratt & Whitney business.

我非常高興地看到，過去幾年來，這一直是普惠公司業務的一個盈利部分。

And as the V2500 continues to be fairly steady for the next several years, the GTF is going to be tailwind to Pratt as we get into the later part of the decade, so really good there.

而且由於 V2500 在未來幾年將繼續保持相當穩定，隨著我們進入 2020 年後期，GTF 將成為普惠的順風，因此這真的很好。

As far as Collins and the incremental if you look at the outlook we put out today, you're going to see about a 40% incremental margin.

就柯林斯和增量而言，如果您看一下我們今天發布的展望，您將看到約 40% 的增量利潤率。

I'm not going to get ahead of ourselves today, but I'd say longer term, we see nothing that says that the Collins business can't return to its pre-COVID margins.

今天我不想妄下結論，但我想說，從長遠來看，沒有任何跡象表明柯林斯業務的利潤率無法恢復到疫情之前的水平。

They've done an incredible amount of work to drive cost out of the business.

他們做了大量的工作來降低企業成本。

They have even more actions in place for 2025.

他們為2025年制定了更多行動。

And I think there's tremendous opportunity.

我認為這裡面存在著巨大的機會。

Obviously, we've been dealing with some inflation, that was on plan.

顯然，我們一直在應對通貨膨脹，這是計劃中的。

And the OE volumes if I were to look back four years ago to what we were assuming versus where we are today, they're below that today.

而如果我回顧四年前的 OE 銷量，並與今天的水平進行比較，我會發現它們低於目前的水平。

So I think they've done a nice job to compensate for under-absorption in the business, and there's clearly some runway as we look ahead and beyond 2025.

因此，我認為他們在彌補業務吸收不足方面做得很好，而且展望 2025 年及以後，顯然還有一定的發展空間。

Chris, any comments on

克里斯，有什麼評論

--

--

The only thing I was going to amplify on, David, was on the Advantage.

戴維，我唯一要強調的是 Advantage。

Obviously, we're very pleased with where we are from a testing and certification perspective.

顯然，從測試和認證的角度來看，我們對目前的情況非常滿意。

But the GTF aftermarket margins are going to be all about driving increased time on wing on the installed fleet today.

但GTF售後市場的利潤將全部取決於目前已安裝機隊的機翼使用時間的增加。

And those things we're going to be delivering before GTFA fully cuts over.

我們將在 GTFA 全面切換之前交付這些產品。

And so we are aggressively continuing to put in and develop enhancements to improve time on wing, whether those be additional cooling holes, whether it would be coding.

因此，我們正在積極地繼續投入和開發增強功能，以改善機翼停留時間，無論是增加冷卻孔，還是編碼。

The other thing I'll tell you is, as we've gone through the GTFA certification process, we are identifying elements that we can go bring back into what I'll call the base program.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，當我們完成 GTFA 認證過程時，我們正在確定可以帶回我稱之為基礎計畫的元素。

These are things that maybe a few years ago we weren't sure we would be able to port over, but we're feeling today like that's something we really want to pursue and have an avenue towards.

幾年前我們還不確定是否能夠移植這些東西，但今天我們感覺這是我們真正想要追求並有途徑實現的東西。

So again, that will be very important as well to drive the GTF aftermarket margins.

所以，這對於提高 GTF 售後市場的利潤率也非常重要。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak）。

Neil, you just touched on it at Collins, but I wanted to ask if I take a step back and zoom out and look at those 2025 segment margin targets from 2021, and you referenced that a lot has changed, but which of those are still achievable in the medium term and have just had cost inflation or some other more transitory headwind versus which of those have structurally changed and the old target is just no longer relevant?

尼爾，您剛剛在 Collins 談到了這一點，但我想問一下，如果我退一步並縮小範圍，看看 2021 年的 2025 年細分利潤目標，您提到很多事情都發生了變化，但其中哪些在中期仍然可以實現，只是經歷了成本通脹或其他更短暫的逆風，而哪些已經發生結構性變化，舊目標不再相關？

Listen, I think all of the margin targets we've talked about are achievable in the business in the long term.

聽著，我認為我們談到的所有利潤目標從長遠來看都是可以實現的。

If you take them one by one, Collins has shown significant margin improvement already.

如果逐一來看，柯林斯的利潤率已經顯著提高。

We have another 150 basis points of margin improvement baked into the '25 outlook.

我們的利潤率還將提高 150 個基點，這些都已納入 25 年展望中。

And I think with the volume of the aftermarket, the cost reduction focus and the actions we're taking in the supply chain, they will get there too.

我認為，隨著售後市場規模的擴大、成本降低重點的增加以及我們在供應鏈中採取的行動，他們也將實現這一目標。

It's going to take a little while.

這需要一點時間。

Obviously, there's been a number of headwinds that we could not have contemplated back in 2021.

顯然，2021 年出現了許多我們無法預料的阻力。

I recall when we put these targets out there, we were among the first company talking in the COVID environment publicly.

我記得當我們提出這些目標時，我們是第一批在 COVID 環境中公開談論此事的公司之一。

So it was really unique times.

所以那真是一段獨特的時光。

We've also lost over $0.75 billion of sales due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

由於俄羅斯和烏克蘭的衝突，我們也損失了超過 7.5 億美元的銷售額。

So there's been a lot of changes, but I think we've done a lot to overcome them.

因此發生了很多變化，但我認為我們已經做了很多來克服這些變化。

At Pratt, you saw good margins coming out of the fourth quarter.

在普拉特，你會看到第四季的利潤率很好。

And again, we think Pratt has the potential to grow its margins to where we thought they'd be today.

而且，我們認為普惠有潛力將其利潤率提高到我們預期的今天水準。

They're not too far off.

它們相距並不太遠。

The top line has grown faster, and obviously, that's been driven by aftermarket and the GTF, which comes with a lighter margin, but still positive, as I just talked about.

營業收入成長更快，顯然，這是由售後市場和 GTF 推動的，儘管利潤率較低，但仍然是正數，正如我剛才所說的。

And then, of course, Raytheon see no reason why that can't get to margins that are north of 12%, 12.5% as well.

當然，雷神公司認為沒有理由不能將利潤率提高到 12% 甚至 12.5% 以上。

So the productivity there at Raytheon continues to improve.

雷神公司的生產效率持續提高。

We saw good improvement in '24.

我們在24年看到了良好的進步。

We're expecting another $100 million in 2025 year over year.

我們預計 2025 年的營收將比前一年增加 1 億美元。

So I think all things are on track.

所以我認為一切都在按計劃進行。

But there's been a number of changes, but I think we're doing what we can and controlling what we can control.

雖然已經發生了一些變化，但我認為我們正在盡我們所能，控制我們能夠控制的。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, David, some puts and takes for sure.

我的意思是，大衛，肯定會有一些付出和收穫。

But I would say that we feel even stronger about the underlying fundamentals of each of the businesses.

但我想說，我們對每項業務的基本面都抱持著更堅定的信念。

Inflation was a huge headwind when we put those out in '21.

當我們在21年推出這些政策時，通貨膨脹是一個巨大的阻力。

But I would just say we -- our conviction around the fundamentals and margin runway for each of the businesses remain strong.

但我只想說，我們對每項業務的基本面和利潤前景的信心依然堅定。

Okay.

好的。

And Neil, what's your latest assumption for the last year you have a GTF powder metal cash flow headwind?

尼爾，您對去年 GTF 粉末金屬現金流逆風的最新假設是什麼？

So as I said a little earlier, we've got the residual amount parked in 2026 right now.

所以正如我之前所說的，我們現在將剩餘金額存放在 2026 年。

We've done a nice job, I think, of managing the profile of cash flow so far.

我認為，到目前為止，我們在管理現金流狀況方面做得很好。

We're working very closely with our customers, obviously, to support them.

顯然，我們正在與客戶密切合作，為他們提供支援。

But right now, I've got that parked in 2026.

但現在，我已經將其停留在 2026 年了。

Could it linger a bit?

還能再拖一會兒嗎？

I suppose.

我想。

But I think we're talking about a tailwind when we go from '25 to '26.

但我認為，當我們從25年到26年時，我們談論的是一種順風。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

米庫斯（Scott Mikus），Melius Research。

Neil, Chris, I was hoping if you guys could provide some color on the production rates implied in your guidance for the 737, A320, 787, how have they progressed through the year?

尼爾、克里斯，我希望你們能提供一些關於 737、A320、787 的指導中隱含的生產率的信息，它們今年的進展如何？

And then also a quick question on Collins.

然後還有一個關於柯林斯的快速問題。

Do you have any update on the certification timing for the new business class seats there?

您對新商務艙座位的認證時間有什麼更新嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I don't want to get out too far ahead of our customers.

我不想走太遠，領先我們的客戶。

You'll hear from them over the coming days.

您將在接下來的幾天內收到他們的訊息。

But we are expecting commercial OE growth, as we said, up in the mid-single digits.

但正如我們所說，我們預計商業 OE 成長率將達到中等個位數。

Our focus, frankly, as I said earlier, is continuing to work with the supply base to make sure that we are all in sync.

坦白說，正如我之前所說，我們的重點是繼續與供應基地合作，以確保我們保持同步。

I want to make sure that they know what they need to deliver and that we're doing everything we can to help them, which is why we've got hundreds of folks there doing that.

我想確保他們知道他們需要交付什麼，並且我們正在盡一切努力幫助他們，這就是為什麼我們安排數百人在那裡做這件事。

So again, you heard Neil say this, at Collins, we've got the capacity to continue to ramp.

所以，你再聽尼爾說過，在柯林斯，我們有能力繼續提升產能。

We've actually gone and protected some long-lead items in case the ramp is even greater than we think.

我們實際上已經採取措施保護一些長週期產品，以防產量上升幅度超出我們的預期。

But we're going to stay super tight with the customers to make sure that we can continue to support them going forward.

但我們將與客戶保持緊密聯繫，以確保我們能夠繼續為他們提供支援。

On the seating question, again, as I said earlier, those are some very complicated certification requirements, and we are working through some testing, but feel like we've got our arms around those, generally speaking, and have a path forward.

關於座位問題，正如我之前所說，這些都是非常複雜的認證要求，我們正在進行一些測試，但感覺我們已經掌握了這些要求，總體而言，我們已經找到了前進的方向。

With that, I would now like to turn the conference back to Nathan Ware.

說完這些，我現在想將會議交還給 Nathan Ware。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Lateef.

謝謝你，拉蒂夫。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

As always, the Investor Relations team and I will be available for follow-up questions.

像往常一樣，投資者關係團隊和我將隨時解答後續問題。

Thank you all for joining us today, and have a good day.

感謝大家今天的參與，祝大家有個愉快的一天。

And this now concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。