雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 RTX 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

My name is Lateef, and I will be your operator for today.

我叫 Lateef，今天我將擔任您的接線生。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

On the call today are Chris Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Nathan Ware, Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Chris Calio；尼爾‧米切爾，財務長；以及投資者關係副總裁 Nathan Ware。

This call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www.rtx.com.

此次電話會議正在網路上進行網路直播，並且可以從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和管理層通常將其稱為其他重要項目的淨非經常性和/或重要項目。

The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都面臨風險和不確定性。

RTX SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

RTX 向 SEC 提交的文件，包括其表格 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Calio.

這樣，我會將電話轉給卡利奧先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早安。

As you saw from our press release this morning, RTX delivered another strong quarter of performance, building on our momentum from the first half of the year.

正如您從今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，RTX 在上半年的勢頭基礎上又實現了強勁的季度業績。

Demand across the business, including double-digit growth in commercial aftermarket and defense remains robust and drove 8% organic sales growth.

整個業務的需求，包括商業售後市場和國防領域的兩位數成長，仍然強勁，推動了 8% 的有機銷售成長。

Our focus on execution drove 100 basis points of segment margin expansion in the quarter and free cash flow was strong at $2 billion.

我們對執行的重視推動本季的部門利潤率擴大了 100 個基點，自由現金流強勁，達到 20 億美元。

Based on these results and our expectations for the remainder of the year, we are again raising our full-year outlook for adjusted sales and EPS, and Neil will take you through the details here in a few minutes.

根據這些結果以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期，我們再次提高了調整後銷售額和每股收益的全年預期，尼爾將在幾分鐘內向您詳細介紹。

Also of note in the quarter, we completed the accelerated share repurchase program we initiated last October, returning $10.3 billion of capital to shareholders.

另外值得注意的是，我們在本季完成了去年 10 月啟動的加速股票回購計劃，向股東返還了 103 億美元的資本。

We've now returned over $32 billion of capital to shareowners since the merger, putting us well on track to deliver on our commitment of $36 billion to $37 billion by the end of next year.

自合併以來，我們現已向股東返還超過 320 億美元的資本，這使我們預計在明年年底前兌現 360 億至 370 億美元的承諾。

Looking ahead, we continue to experience robust demand for our products and services.

展望未來，我們的產品和服務的需求將持續強勁。

We saw incredible growth in our backlog, which ended the quarter at a record $221 billion with a book-to-bill of 1.8 and included $25 billion of defense and $11 billion of commercial orders, clearly demonstrating the differentiated performance that our products and services provide to our customers and supporting our confidence in the long-term growth of RTX.

我們看到我們的積壓訂單出現了令人難以置信的成長，本季末訂單達到創紀錄的2,210 億美元，訂單出貨比為1.8，其中包括250 億美元的國防訂單和110 億美元的商業訂單，清楚地展示了我們的產品和服務提供的差異化性能為我們的客戶提供支持，並支持我們對 RTX 長期增長的信心。

There were several notable highlights.

有幾個值得注意的亮點。

At Raytheon, we booked a record $16.6 billion of awards in the quarter, driven by the continued global demand for integrated air and missile defense capabilities with 45% of these bookings for international customers.

在全球對綜合防空和飛彈防禦能力持續需求的推動下，雷神公司在本季度預訂了創紀錄的 166 億美元訂單，其中 45% 的預訂是為國際客戶提供的。

Key awards included $3 billion associated with our Patriot and GEM-T products, $1.3 billion for SM-3 and $1.2 billion for AMRAAM.

主要獎項包括與我們的愛國者和 GEM-T 產品相關的 30 億美元、與 SM-3 相關的 13 億美元和與 AMRAAM 相關的 12 億美元。

Importantly, we booked $1.9 billion for LTAMDS, the first domestic and international production order for our next-generation 360-degree air and missile defense system.

重要的是，我們為LTAMDS預訂了19億美元，這是我們下一代360度防空和飛彈防禦系統的第一個國內和國際生產訂單。

At Pratt, we were awarded a $1.3 billion contract for the continued development of the F135 Engine Core Upgrade program, which will deliver enhanced engine range and performance for all variants of the F-35 well into the future.

在普拉特，我們獲得了一份價值 13 億美元的合同，用於繼續開發 F135 發動機核心升級計劃，該計劃將為未來的 F-35 所有型號提供增強的發動機範圍和性能。

And at Collins, the FAA awarded our connected aviation team a $470 million sustainment contract for the continued technical refresh and enhancement of our air traffic control automation system, which is deployed at over 500 air traffic control towers across the US.

在柯林斯，美國聯邦航空管理局(FAA) 向我們的互聯航空團隊授予了價值4.7 億美元的維護合同，用於持續技術更新和增強我們的空中交通管制自動化系統，該系統部署在美國各地500 多個空中交通管制塔。

The system provides a real-time view of the airspace and tools to assist with air traffic management and aerospace safety.

該系統提供空域的即時視圖和工具，以協助空中交通管理和航空航天安全。

Okay.

好的。

Let's move to slide 4, and I'll provide an update on how we are progressing on our strategic priorities, all of which are enablers to drive best-in-class performance across RTX including continued top-line growth, margin expansion, and strong cash flow generation.

讓我們轉到幻燈片4，我將提供有關我們在戰略重點方面進展情況的最新信息，所有這些都是推動RTX 實現一流業績的推動因素，包括持續的營收成長、利潤率擴張和強勁的業績成長。

I'll start with executing on our commitments and first and foremost is our GTF fleet management plan.

我將從履行我們的承諾開始，首先也是最重要的是我們的 GTF 車隊管理計畫。

We remain on track, and our financial and operational outlook remains consistent with our prior comments.

我們仍處於正軌，我們的財務和營運前景與我們先前的評論保持一致。

At the end of Q3, our inspections of powder metal parts continue to progress according to plan.

第三季末，我們對粉末金屬零件的檢查繼續按計畫進行。

The associated fallout rate remains below the 1% expectation and the findings are consistent with the underlying assumptions of our fleet management plan.

相關的後果率仍然低於 1% 的預期，研究結果與我們車隊管理計畫的基本假設一致。

At our MRO facilities, throughput of engines is improving.

在我們的 MRO 設施中，引擎的吞吐量正在提高。

PW1100 output increased 10% sequentially and 27% on a year-over-year basis.

PW1100 產量較上季成長 10%，較去年同期成長 27%。

The team is utilizing CORE practices to optimize the inspection sequence and implement concurrent assembly operations in our MRO facilities.

該團隊正在利用 CORE 實踐來優化檢查順序並在我們的 MRO 設施中實施並發組裝操作。

We've now reached support agreements with 28 of our customers, covering roughly 75% of the impacted PW1100 fleet.

我們現已與 28 家客戶達成支援協議，涵蓋受影響的 PW1100 機隊的約 75%。

The terms continue to remain in line with our assumptions.

這些條款繼續符合我們的假設。

We're also leveraging our CORE operating system and Industry 4.0 initiatives across the company to drive continuous performance improvements while expanding capacity.

我們也利用整個公司的核心作業系統和工業 4.0 計畫來推動持續的效能改進，同時擴大產能。

For example, at our Raytheon facility in McKinney, Texas, our focus on CORE implementation, along with investments in capacity and automation has significantly increased production of our 360-degree sensor suite for the F-35, known as EODAS, which stands for Electro-Optical Distributed Aperture System.

例如，在我們位於德克薩斯州麥金尼的雷神公司工廠，我們對CORE 實施的關注以及對產能和自動化的投資顯著增加了我們用於F-35 的360 度感測器套件（稱為EODAS ，代表Electro）的產量。

Specifically, the team drove yield improvement and streamlined test and inspection operations and moved from an assembly line production process to a single piece build flow which has resulted in a 5x increase in production capacity for EODAS over the past 12 months.

具體來說，該團隊推動了產量提高，簡化了測試和檢查操作，並從裝配線生產流程轉變為單件構建流程，這使得 EODAS 的產能在過去 12 個月內增加了 5 倍。

And at Collins, our Avionics business is already benefiting from our connected equipment by deploying an automated smart torque system resulting in zero torque-related defects and saving over 20,000 labor hours so far this year.

在柯林斯，我們的航空電子設備業務已從我們的連網設備中受益，透過部署自動化智慧扭力系統，今年迄今實現了零扭矩相關缺陷，並節省了 20,000 多個工時。

Across RTX, we've now connected 34 factories with our proprietary digital analytics technology, and we are on track to connect 40 factories by the end of the year.

在 RTX 中，我們現已利用專有的數位分析技術連接了 34 家工廠，並且預計在今年年底前連接 40 家工廠。

On the capacity front, we continue to invest in increasing output on our key franchise programs to deliver on strong customer demand.

在產能方面，我們持續投資增加關鍵特許經營項目的產量，以滿足強勁的客戶需求。

This month, Pratt opened a new 845,000-square-foot facility in Oklahoma City that will support global sustainment efforts for military engines, including the F135, F117, and F100.

本月，普拉特在俄克拉荷馬城開設了一座佔地 845,000 平方英尺的新工廠，該工廠將支援 F135、F117 和 F100 等軍用引擎的全球維護工作。

This state-of-the-art facility also features automation and advanced manufacturing technologies that will streamline processes, resulting in improved productivity and throughput.

該最先進的工廠還擁有自動化和先進的製造技術，可簡化流程，從而提高生產率和吞吐量。

Shifting to innovating for future growth.

轉向創新以實現未來成長。

We continue to execute on 14 cross-technology road maps across RTX to develop next-generation technologies in domains that support our customers' long-term needs.

我們繼續在 RTX 中執行 14 項跨技術路線圖，以在支援客戶長期需求的領域開發下一代技術。

An example is our hybrid electric propulsion technology to improve fuel efficiency.

一個例子是我們提高燃油效率的混合動力電力推進技術。

In the quarter, Airbus Helicopters selected Collins and Pratt Canada to support the development of a hybrid electric propulsion system for its PioneerLab technology demonstrator, which is targeting a 30% improvement in fuel efficiency on a twin-engine helicopter.

本季度，空中巴士直升機公司選擇柯林斯和普拉特加拿大公司為其 PioneerLab 技術演示機開發混合電力推進系統，該系統的目標是將雙引擎直升機的燃油效率提高 30%。

Pratt Canada will provide a derivative of its PW210 engine, combined with two electric motors from Collins.

普拉特加拿大公司將提供其 PW210 引擎的衍生產品，並結合柯林斯的兩台電動馬達。

And as part of our advanced materials road map, Collins and Raytheon are working together to adapt commercial break carbon-carbon composite technology to hypersonic missile applications where thermal management is a critical requirement given the high-level speed and high-temperature environments at play.

作為我們先進材料路線圖的一部分，柯林斯和雷神公司正在共同努力，將商業突破碳-碳複合材料技術應用於高超音速飛彈應用，考慮到高速度和高溫環境，熱管理是其中的關鍵要求。

In the quarter, the team achieved technology readiness level 6, demonstrating the ability of the parts to survive and perform in extreme environmental conditions.

本季度，團隊達到了 6 級技術準備水平，展示了零件在極端環境條件下生存和運作的能力。

These initiatives highlight our commitment to developing critical next-gen products and solutions for our customers.

這些舉措凸顯了我們致力於為客戶開發關鍵的下一代產品和解決方案的承諾。

Finally, we're focused on leveraging the breadth and scale of RTX.

最後，我們專注於利用 RTX 的廣度和規模。

This includes driving simplification within our digital footprint and harmonizing common processes to take cost and complexity out of the business which will ultimately help drive productivity.

這包括推動我們數位化足跡的簡化以及協調通用流程，以降低業務成本和複雜性，最終有助於提高生產力。

So far this year, we've eliminated over 265 systems to streamline our engineering, supply chain, and manufacturing processes.

今年到目前為止，我們已經淘汰了超過 265 個系統，以簡化我們的工程、供應鏈和製造流程。

For example, Collins is on track to reduce their engineering systems by 20% this year.

例如，柯林斯今年預計將其工程系統減少 20%。

This will help optimize the end-to-end process flow through standard work.

這將有助於透過標準工作優化端到端流程。

We're also leveraging our scale within our supply chain to drive increased efficiencies, speed, and savings.

我們也利用供應鏈中的規模來提高效率、速度和成本。

Through a coordinated RTX approach, we've identified more than 100 million pounds of common metals across 60 unique alloys that are procured by our suppliers.

透過協調的 RTX 方法，我們已經在供應商採購的 60 種獨特合金中識別出超過 1 億磅的普通金屬。

We have negotiated long-term agreements with these alloys that our suppliers can leverage to reduce lead times and cost, and currently have 45 suppliers utilizing these agreements with a plan to add 15 more by year end.

我們已經與這些合金談判達成了長期協議，我們的供應商可以利用這些協議來縮短交貨時間和降低成本，目前有 45 家供應商利用這些協議，併計劃到年底再增加 15 家。

We expect to realize a 10% to 15% cost savings on these alloys utilizing this approach.

我們預計利用這種方法可以節省這些合金 10% 到 15% 的成本。

Okay.

好的。

So overall, I'm pleased with the progress we've made in our strategic priorities and the momentum we've created across our businesses.

總的來說，我對我們在策略重點方面取得的進展以及我們在整個業務中創造的勢頭感到滿意。

With that, I'll turn it over to Neil to take you through the third-quarter results in more detail.

接下來，我將把它交給尼爾，讓您更詳細地了解第三季的表現。

Neil?

尼爾？

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

I'm on slide 5.

我在投影片 5 上。

As Chris said, we delivered another strong quarter of organic sales growth, segment margin expansion, and free cash flow.

正如克里斯所說，我們在有機銷售成長、部門利潤擴張和自由現金流方面又實現了強勁的季度成長。

RTX's adjusted sales of $20.1 billion were up 6% and up 8% organically.

RTX 調整後銷售額為 201 億美元，較去年同期成長 6%，有機成長 8%。

By sales channel, growth was led by commercial aftermarket, which was up 11%, and that's on top of 25% growth last year as global air travel continues to grow.

從銷售管道來看，隨著全球航空旅行的持續成長，商業售後市場成長了 11%，去年成長了 25%。

Defense sales were up 10% organically as we continue to execute on our backlog and commercial OE was flat as favorable mix at Pratt was offset by lower narrowbody volume at Collins.

由於我們繼續執行積壓訂單，國防銷售有機增長了 10%，而商業原配設備持平，因為普拉特的有利組合被柯林斯窄體機銷量的下降所抵消。

Segment operating profit of $2.4 billion was up 16% with segment operating margin expansion of 100 basis points versus the prior year.

部門營業利潤達 24 億美元，成長 16%，部門營業利益率較前一年成長 100 個基點。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.45 was also up 16% from the prior year, driven by segment operating profit growth, a lower share count and a lower effective tax rate which were partially offset by expected headwinds from higher interest expense and lower pension income.

調整後每股收益為1.45 美元，較上年增長16%，這得益於部門營業利潤增長、股份數量減少和有效稅率降低，但利息支出增加和養老金收入減少帶來的預期阻力部分抵消了這些因素。

The tax rate in the quarter benefited by about $0.07 per share from tax impacts principally related to a legal entity reorganization.

主要與法人實體重組相關的稅收影響使本季的稅率受益於每股約 0.07 美元。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.09 and included $0.31 of acquisition accounting adjustments and $0.05 of restructuring and other significant nonrecurring charges.

以 GAAP 計算，持續經營業務每股收益為 1.09 美元，其中包括 0.31 美元的收購會計調整和 0.05 美元的重組及其他重大非經常性費用。

And free cash flow was again strong at $2 billion as continued strength in collections helped offset some higher inventory.

自由現金流再次強勁，達到 20 億美元，因為藏品的持續強勁幫助抵消了一些較高的庫存。

In the quarter, we returned $1.1 billion of capital to share owners, including dividends and $294 million principally related to the closeout of the accelerated share repurchase program initiated last year.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 11 億美元資本，包括股息和主要與去年啟動的加速股票回購計畫結束相關的 2.94 億美元。

On the portfolio front, we expect the sale of the Collins' Hoist & Winch business to close here in the fourth quarter and the Actuation business mid-next year.

在投資組合方面，我們預計柯林斯起重和絞車業務的出售將於第四季度完成，驅動業務的出售將於明年年中完成。

Okay.

好的。

Turning to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

Let me share a few details on our updated outlook for the year.

讓我分享一些關於我們今年最新展望的細節。

As you've seen through the third quarter, the performance across all three of our businesses has been strong, and our end markets remain robust.

正如您在第三季所看到的，我們所有三個業務的業績都很強勁，我們的終端市場仍然強勁。

As a result, we have updated our full-year outlook to incorporate this performance, along with our expectations for the rest of the year.

因此，我們更新了全年展望，以納入此業績以及對今年剩餘時間的預期。

Specific to commercial OE production, based on our latest assessment of production rates, we now expect OE sales at the RTX level to grow roughly 10% versus prior year towards the low end of our prior expectation.

具體到商業 OE 生產，根據我們對生產率的最新評估，我們現在預計 RTX 級別的 OE 銷售額將比去年增長約 10%，接近我們之前預期的低端。

And at Collins specifically, commercial OE is now expected to be flat for the year, and that's down from our prior expectation of mid-single-digit growth.

特別是在柯林斯公司，目前預計今年商業原件將持平，這低於我們先前對中個位數成長的預期。

This outlook assumes that we're able to restart some level of shipments to Boeing in the fourth quarter, and we see no change to the long-term structural demand for our OE products.

這一前景假設我們能夠在第四季度重新開始向波音公司提供一定程度的發貨，並且我們認為對我們的原配產品的長期結構性需求沒有變化。

With that said, strength across our other sales channels, including commercial aftermarket, Pratt original equipment, and defense is expected to more than offset these impacts.

話雖如此，我們其他銷售管道（包括商業售後市場、普拉特原始設備和國防）的實力預計將足以抵消這些影響。

All in, we're increasing our full-year adjusted sales outlook to between $79.25 billion and $79.75 billion, up from our prior range of $78.75 billion to $79.5 billion, and we continue to expect approximately 8% to 9% organic sales growth for the full year.

總而言之，我們將全年調整後的銷售前景從先前的 787.5 億美元至 795 億美元上調至 792.5 億美元至 797.5 億美元之間，並且我們繼續預計全年有機銷售額增長約 8% 至 9%。全年。

We are also increasing our adjusted EPS outlook by $0.15 on the low end and $0.13 on the high end, putting the new range at $5.50 to $5.58, up from $5.35 to $5.45. Improved segment profit outlook that Pratt and Raytheon more than offset a change at Collins, and we have also flowed through improvements in our tax rate and some below-the-line items.

我們還將調整後每股收益預期的低端上調 0.15 美元，高端上調 0.13 美元，將新範圍從 5.35 美元上調至 5.45 美元，上調至 5.50 美元至 5.58 美元。普拉特和雷神公司改善的部門利潤前景足以抵消柯林斯的變化，而且我們還透過提高稅率和一些線下項目來實現這一目標。

Nathan will take you through the segment outlook updates in more detail, we've included the corresponding updated outlook for other items in the appendix of our webcast deck.

內森（Nathan）將帶您更詳細地了解細分市場展望更新，我們已在網路廣播平台的附錄中包含其他項目的相應更新展望。

On free cash flow, we remain on track to achieve our outlook of approximately $4.7 billion.

在自由現金流方面，我們仍有望實現約 47 億美元的預期。

In the fourth quarter, we expect powder metal related disbursements to increase as well as payments associated with the legal and contract matters that we discussed and recorded in the second quarter.

在第四季度，我們預計粉末金屬相關的支出以及與我們在第二季度討論和記錄的法律和合約事項相關的支出將會增加。

For the year, we now expect powder metal outflows to be about $1 billion, down $250 million from our prior expectation.

我們現在預計今年粉末金屬流出量約為 10 億美元，將比我們先前的預期減少 2.5 億美元。

This, combined with slightly lower CapEx, is expected to offset the working capital impacts associated with the lower commercial OE volume at Collins.

加上資本支出略有下降，預計將抵消柯林斯商業原配設備銷售下降帶來的營運資本影響。

Before I hand it over to Nathan for the segment details, just a few comments on how we're thinking about next year.

在我將其交給內森了解細分細節之前，我先簡單談談我們對明年的看法。

Right now, we are working through our annual planning process across the company.

目前，我們正在整個公司範圍內制定年度規劃流程。

And overall, with our current backlog and the expectation of continued global demand across our end markets, we expect another year of solid organic sales growth and segment margin expansion as well as significant free cash flow generation.

總體而言，鑑於我們目前的積壓以及終端市場全球需求持續成長的預期，我們預計又一年將實現穩健的有機銷售成長和部門利潤率擴張以及顯著的自由現金流產生。

We continue to analyze scenarios around aircraft production rates, the profile of commercial aftermarket growth, and the likelihood of an extended continuing resolution for US defense spending.

我們將繼續分析飛機生產率、商業售後市場成長概況以及美國國防支出持續解決方案的可能性等情境。

We also continue to actively work through supply chain and inflation challenges with our mitigation strategies, including forward deploying our people to suppliers, second sourcing arrangements, increasing our long-term supplier agreement coverage, and customer pricing initiatives.

我們也繼續透過緩解策略積極應對供應鏈和通膨挑戰，包括將我們的人員提前部署到供應商、第二採購安排、擴大我們的長期供應商協議覆蓋範圍以及客戶定價措施。

With that said, we feel good about the strength of our businesses and our underlying fundamentals, and as we always do, we will be back in January on our fourth-quarter earnings call with a complete outlook for the next year, incorporating our latest assessment of these items.

話雖如此，我們對我們的業務實力和基本面感到滿意，並且一如既往，我們將在 1 月份召開第四季度收益電話會議，對明年進行完整的展望，其中包括我們的最新評估這些項目。

Okay.

好的。

Let me turn it over to Nathan.

讓我把它交給內森。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

Starting with Collins on slide 7.

從幻燈片 7 上的柯林斯開始。

Sales were $7.1 billion in the quarter, up 6% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven by strength in commercial aftermarket and defense, partially offset by lower commercial OE volume.

本季銷售額為 71 億美元，在商業售後市場和國防實力的推動下，調整後銷售額和有機銷售額均增長 6%，但部分被商業原配設備銷量下降所抵消。

By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 9%, driven by an 11% increase in parts and repair, a 16% increase in provisioning, and a 6% decrease in mods and upgrades with mods and upgrades continuing to be against a difficult prior-year compare that benefited from the 5G mandate.

按通路劃分，商業售後市場銷售額成長了 9%，這主要得益於零件和維修增加 11%、配置增加 16%、改裝和升級減少 6%，而改裝和升級仍然面臨困難。 ，受益於5G 授權的年份。

Defense sales were up 14%, primarily due to higher volume across multiple programs and platforms, and commercial OE sales for the quarter were down 8% versus the prior year, driven by lower narrowbody volume, including the impact of the Boeing work stoppage.

國防銷售成長了 14%，主要是由於多個項目和平台的銷量增加，而本季的商業原裝備銷售較上年同期下降了 8%，原因是窄體機銷量下降，包括波音停工的影響。

Adjusted operating profit of $1.1 billion was up $53 million versus the prior year.

調整後營業利潤為 11 億美元，比上年增加 5,300 萬美元。

Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and defense volume was partially offset by lower commercial OE volume, unfavorable commercial OE mix, and higher R&D expense.

商業售後市場和國防銷售增加的下降被商業原裝備銷售下降、不利的商業原裝備組合以及更高的研發費用部分抵消。

Looking ahead, on a full-year basis, we continue to expect Collins sales to grow high single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, though likely at the low end of this range.

展望未來，就全年而言，我們繼續預期柯林斯的銷售額在調整後和有機基礎上都將實現高個位數成長，儘管可能處於該範圍的低端。

We expect a lower commercial OE volume that Neil mentioned earlier to be partially offset by higher defense volume.

我們預計尼爾之前提到的較低的商業原裝備數量將被較高的防禦數量部分抵消。

And we are updating the outlook for operating profit to grow between $575 million and $650 million versus 2023 compared to our prior range of between $650 million and $725 million, as we incorporate the impact of the lower OE volume and associated absorption and disruption impacts.

我們將 2023 年營業利潤的預期更新為 5.75 億美元至 6.5 億美元，而之前的範圍為 6.5 億美元至 7.25 億美元，因為我們考慮了原廠數量減少以及相關吸收和中斷影響。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on slide 8.

前往投影片 8 上的普惠公司。

Sales of $7.2 billion were up 14% on both an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across all three channels.

調整後銷售額和有機銷售額均成長 14%，達到 72 億美元，所有三個管道的銷售額均成長。

Commercial OE sales were up 9% in the quarter, primarily driven by favorable mix in Large Commercial Engines.

本季商用原配設備銷售額成長 9%，主要得益於大型商用引擎的有利組合。

Commercial aftermarket sales were up 13% in the quarter, driven by higher volume in both Large Commercial Engines and Pratt Canada.

在大型商用引擎和普拉特加拿大公司銷量增加的推動下，本季商業售後市場銷售額成長了 13%。

In the military engines, sales were up 20%, driven by higher sustainment volume across the F135 and F117 platforms as well as higher development volume driven by the F135 Engine Core Upgrade program.

在軍用發動機方面，由於 F135 和 F117 平台的維護量增加以及 F135 發動機核心升級計劃推動的開發量增加，銷量增長了 20%。

Adjusted operating profit of $597 million was up $184 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and military volume.

調整後的營業利潤為 5.97 億美元，較上年增加 1.84 億美元，這是由於商業售後市場和軍用銷售下降所致。

Favorable mix and lower OE delivery volume in Large Commercial Engines were offset by higher production costs.

大型商用引擎的有利組合和較低的原裝備件交付量被較高的生產成本所抵消。

In the quarter, Pratt booked over $11 billion of awards.

本季度，普拉特獲得了超過 110 億美元的獎項。

In addition to the Engine Core upgrade award that Chris mentioned earlier, Pratt also booked $2.3 billion of F117 sustainment and $6.6 billion of commercial awards.

除了克里斯之前提到的引擎核心升級獎勵之外，普拉特還預訂了價值 23 億美元的 F117 維護獎勵和 66 億美元的商業獎勵。

Turning to Pratt's full-year outlook.

轉向普拉特的全年展望。

We continue to expect sales to grow mid-teens on an adjusted and organic basis, most likely towards the higher end of this range, driven by stronger military volume and the favorable mix in Large Commercial Engines that we've seen so far this year.

我們繼續預計，在調整後的有機基礎上，銷售額將增長到十幾歲左右，最有可能達到這一範圍的高端，這得益於今年迄今為止我們所看到的更強大的軍用銷售和大型商用發動機的有利組合。

And we are updating the outlook for adjusted operating profit to grow between $475 million and $525 million versus 2023, up from our prior range of between $400 million and $475 million.

我們正在更新調整後營業利潤的展望，與 2023 年相比，增長至 4.75 億美元至 5.25 億美元，高於我們之前的 4 億至 4.75 億美元範圍。

Now turning to Raytheon on slide 9.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的雷神公司。

Sales of $6.4 billion in the quarter were down 1% on an adjusted basis as a result of the Cybersecurity divestiture in the first quarter.

由於第一季網路安全資產剝離，調整後本季銷售額為 64 億美元，下降 1%。

On an organic basis, sales were up 5%, driven by higher volume on land and air defense systems, including Patriot, NASAMS, and counter-UAS programs as well as higher volume on advanced technology programs.

在有機基礎上，銷售額增長了 5%，這是由於陸地和防空系統銷售增加，包括愛國者、NASAMS 和反無人機項目以及先進技術項目銷售增加。

This was partially offset by lower volume on air and space defense systems.

這被空中和太空防禦系統銷售的下降部分抵消。

Adjusted operating profit of $661 million was up $91 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by favorable mix, improved net productivity, and drop-through on higher volume, partially offset by the impact of the Cybersecurity divestiture.

調整後營業利潤為 6.61 億美元，比上年增加 9,100 萬美元，這主要是由於有利的組合、淨生產率的提高以及銷量的下降，部分被網路安全剝離的影響所抵消。

In the quarter, net productivity improved $33 million year over year and included an unfavorable impact of $53 million related to a classified program.

本季度，淨生產力年增了 3,300 萬美元，其中包括與機密項目相關的 5,300 萬美元的不利影響。

Of note, Raytheon has now seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year margin expansion.

值得注意的是，雷神公司現已連續四個季度實現利潤率較去年同期擴張。

And as Chris highlighted, bookings in the quarter were $16.6 billion, resulting in a backlog of $60 billion and a book-to-bill of 2.6.

正如 Chris 所強調的那樣，本季的預訂量為 166 億美元，導致積壓 600 億美元，訂單出貨比為 2.6。

On a rolling 12-month basis, Raytheon's book-to-bill is 1.48. In addition to the awards mentioned earlier, Raytheon also booked $1.2 billion of classified awards, $737 million for AIM-9X and $538 million for Javelin.

以 12 個月滾動計算，雷神公司的訂單出貨比為 1.48。除了前面提到的獎項外，雷神公司還預訂了12億美元的機密獎項，其中AIM-9X為7.37億美元，標槍為5.38億美元。

In total, Raytheon's backlog is now 44% international, up over 10 points from last year.

總體而言，雷神公司的積壓訂單目前佔國際訂單量的 44%，比去年增加了 10 個百分點以上。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect Raytheon sales to grow mid-single digits organically for the year.

展望未來，我們繼續預計雷神公司今年的銷售額將實現中個位數有機成長。

And due to the volume drop-through and favorable mix you've seen so far this year, we now expect Raytheon's operating profit to grow between $200 million and $250 million versus 2023, up from our prior range of between $125 million and $200 million, and this includes the impact of the Cybersecurity divestiture.

由於今年迄今為止銷量下降和有利的組合，我們現在預計雷神公司的營業利潤將比 2023 年增長 2 億至 2.5 億美元，高於我們之前 1.25 億至 2 億美元的範圍，這包括網路安全剝離的影響。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Chris.

這樣，我會把它轉回給克里斯。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Nathan.

謝謝，內森。

I'm on slide 10.

我在投影片 10 上。

As you heard today, RTX is extremely well positioned for growth.

正如您今天所聽到的，RTX 處於非常有利的成長位置。

We've got an installed base in commercial aerospace that has a long aftermarket tail and leading defense franchises that are seeing record global demand.

我們在商業航空航太領域擁有一定的安裝基礎，擁有較長的售後市場和領先的國防特許經營權，全球需求創歷史新高。

Our team remains focused on supporting our customers and executing on our commitments, which led to our strong third-quarter performance and an improved outlook for the full year.

我們的團隊仍然專注於支持客戶並履行我們的承諾，這導致了我們第三季的強勁業績和全年前景的改善。

As we continue to drive our strategic priorities, we're confident in our ability to deliver sustained growth in organic sales, earnings, and cash flow over the long term.

隨著我們繼續推動我們的策略重點，我們對實現有機銷售、收入和現金流的長期持續成長的能力充滿信心。

Okay.

好的。

With that, let's open it up for questions.

說到這裡，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Rob Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅布·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Chris, a question for you on the GTF.

克里斯，有一個關於 GTF 的問題。

I was wondering how you managed the competing demands of the spares pool versus the Airbus line in the third quarter?

我想知道第三季您如何管理備件庫與空中巴士系列的競爭需求？

And how confident you are in hitting the delivery targets for the fourth quarter?

您對實現第四季的交付目標有多大信心？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

Obviously, a critical initiative for us.

顯然，這對我們來說是一項重要舉措。

So look, we've continued to ramp deliveries this year of both OE and spares.

因此，今年我們持續增加原配設備和備件的交付量。

So if you think about year to date, in aggregate deliveries up about 16% and also about 7% up sequentially.

因此，如果你考慮今年迄今為止的情況，總交付量增長了約 16%，比上一季增長了約 7%。

That's the composite but I'll also tell you that both OE and spares are up individually as part of those composite numbers.

這是綜合數字，但我還要告訴您，原配設備和備件都作為這些綜合數字的一部分單獨增加。

I will also note that we're well above our 2019 volume so again, continuing to ramp and balancing all the needs.

我還要指出的是，我們的產量遠高於 2019 年的產量，所以我們將繼續增加並平衡所有需求。

And that balance is going to continue as we're going to allocate amongst OE, spares, and MRO to support the fleet.

這種平衡將繼續下去，因為我們將在原廠設備、備件和維護、維修和大修之間進行分配，以支援機隊。

Our situation with the fleet and with powder metal, we've got to continue to make those trades in order to support our customers.

我們在機隊和粉末金屬方面的情況，我們必須繼續進行這些交易，以支持我們的客戶。

And a big part of that balance and supporting that balance is that we've got to continue to drive production of key part families.

這種平衡和支持這種平衡的一個重要部分是我們必須繼續推動關鍵零件系列的生產。

So think isothermal forgings, they continue to ramp up 38% year over year.

因此，等溫鍛件的產量持續年增 38%。

And then the other piece I would say is structural castings.

我要說的另一件是結構鑄件。

We've got to continue to improve in that area.

我們必須在該領域繼續改進。

There are some part numbers that have recovered to plan, some that are going to take a little bit longer to recover.

有些零件號碼已經恢復到計劃中，有些則需要更長的時間才能恢復。

But I would say all in all, Rob, we're aligned with Airbus and what they need here in the fourth quarter and laser-focused on helping them make their deliveries at the end of the year.

但我想說的是，總而言之，羅布，我們與空中巴士公司以及他們在第四季度的需求保持一致，並專注於幫助他們在年底交付。

Myles Walton, Wolf Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

I was hoping you could touch on Raytheon.

我希望你能談談雷神公司。

Obviously, really good bookings but the organic growth has been sitting around 5% for a couple of years.

顯然，預訂量確實不錯，但有機成長幾年來一直保持在 5% 左右。

What's the type of acceleration we should all think about into '25 and beyond?

25 世紀及以後我們都應該考慮什麼樣的加速類型？

And also from a mix perspective, that 10-point higher mix in the backlog, how quickly does that impart into a significant mix shift in the sales in '25 and '26?

而且從組合的角度來看，積壓的組合增加了 10 個百分點，這會以多快的速度影響 25 年和 26 年銷售的重大組合轉變？

Myles, so look, the story at Raytheon right now is the demand is incredibly strong, right?

邁爾斯，所以看，雷神公司現在的需求非常強勁，對嗎？

I mean if you think about the $16.6 billion of bookings this quarter, it's fantastic.

我的意思是，如果您考慮本季 166 億美元的預訂量，那就太棒了。

The rolling 12-month book-to-bill is almost 1.5 and they've got a $60 billion backlog today.

滾動 12 個月的訂單出貨比幾乎為 1.5，目前他們的積壓訂單已達 600 億美元。

And as you noted, the international piece of this is up over 10 points, about 44% of the total backlog.

正如您所指出的，國際部分成長了 10 個多點，約佔總積壓量的 44%。

Now that's going to take some time to work through.

現在這需要一些時間來解決。

That's not going to be something that's going to materialize in large measure in 2025.

到 2025 年，這不會在很大程度上實現。

We've got to continue to work through the backlog that we have and that's going to take some time.

我們必須繼續處理積壓的工作，這需要一些時間。

We are heartened by the fact that the supply chain and material flow continues to be healthy.

我們對供應鏈和物料流持續健康這一事實感到鼓舞。

We've seen six straight quarters of growth, and that's going to need to continue.

我們已經看到連續六個季度的成長，而且這種成長需要繼續下去。

We've also continued to build out capacity.

我們也繼續擴大產能。

We've talked before about expansion efforts in Texas and Arkansas, at Redstone as well and in Tucson.

我們之前已經討論過在德克薩斯州和阿肯色州、紅石以及圖森的擴張工作。

So supply chain is getting healthier, capacity is being put into place, demand is there.

因此，供應鏈變得更加健康，產能正在到位，需求也存在。

We just got to continue to work through this backlog.

我們只需要繼續處理這些積壓的工作。

But again, I think that mix shift that we've talked about will materialize and be tailwind to growth at Raytheon in the coming years.

但我再次認為，我們討論過的混合轉變將成為現實，並成為雷神公司未來幾年成長的順風車。

And Myles, it's Neal.

邁爾斯，是尼爾。

I would just add that we're definitely seeing the benefit of the mix already show up.

我想補充一點，我們確實看到了混合的好處已經顯現出來。

And as you think about the margin improvement in the quarter, I would attribute over 100 basis points of that to the mix alone.

當你想到本季的利潤率改善時，我會將其中超過 100 個基點歸因於這個組合。

And the good news there as well as we're seeing year-over-year improvement in productivity that Nathan highlighted, and that's in spite of some headwinds that we dealt with in the quarter, frankly.

內森強調的好消息是，我們看到生產力逐年提高，坦白說，儘管我們在本季遇到了一些不利因素。

So still feel good about this year.

所以今年的心情還是不錯的。

As Chris has talked about at length, we've got some supply chain challenges that we've been dealing with.

正如克里斯詳細談到的那樣，我們一直在應對一些供應鏈挑戰。

And as those continue to free up, then we'll see the top line grow commensurately with that.

隨著這些不斷釋放，我們將看到收入相應增長。

Clearly, a strong backlog going forward, though.

顯然，未來仍有大量積壓。

Jason Gursky, Citigroup.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗集團。

Chris, you mentioned, you made some comments, I should say, about productivity in your prepared remarks and I know Nathan talked a bit about it in his as well.

克里斯，你提到，我應該說，你在你準備好的演講中對生產力發表了一些評論，我知道內森也在他的演講中談到了這一點。

Wondering if you could just add some context to your views on productivity.

想知道您是否可以為您對生產力的看法添加一些背景。

Kind of where we are today, maybe relative to where we were pre-pandemic across your businesses and where do you think this can all go over time, your expectations about productivity growth in the quarters, and maybe multiple years ahead and the expectations that you're building into your plan?

我們今天所處的位置，可能是相對於您的企業在大流行前的情況而言的，您認為隨著時間的推移，這一切會發生什麼變化，您對本季度生產力增長的期望，也許未來幾年以及您的期望正在納入你的計劃嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

So look, a couple of thoughts here.

所以看，這裡有一些想法。

I would say at Raytheon, we've talked about productivity for a while now and the lack of productivity that we've had.

我想說，在雷神公司，我們已經討論生產力一段時間了，以及我們生產力的缺乏。

And we're starting to see some green shoots there.

我們開始看到一些萌芽。

You just heard Neil talk about that.

你剛剛聽到尼爾談論過這件事。

I think that's going to be a function of, again, the quality and improvements that we're making, CORE driving improvements, and shortening that period of performance all the fundamentals that come with that business as we get into what I would consider to be some of the core of our business there.

我認為這將再次取決於我們正在做出的品質和改進、核心驅動改進以及縮短績效週期，當我們進入我認為的業務時，所有這些基本要素都會隨之而來。 。

The things we know how to do really well, those legacy programs that make up a big part of that backlog.

我們知道如何做好的事情，那些遺留項目構成了積壓的很大一部分。

I think we continue to see productivity there and I already mentioned before, continuing health of the supply chain being a critical factor there.

我認為我們繼續看到那裡的生產力，我之前已經提到過，供應鏈的持續健康是那裡的關鍵因素。

I think we've got the labor in place but again, it's the supply chain we need to continue to get hold of here.

我認為我們已經擁有了勞動力，但同樣，我們需要繼續掌握這裡的供應鏈。

I'll say, across other parts of the business, we're driving productivity in many respects through automation in our Factory 4.0. If you go into our factories today, we're continuing to drive connected factories, making sure that we've got the automation in place to take the labor hours out where it makes sense, again, to continue to drive the productivity we need to see across the business.

我想說的是，在業務的其他部分，我們正在透過 Factory 4.0 的自動化在許多方面提高生產力。如果你今天走進我們的工廠，我們將繼續推動互聯工廠，確保我們已經實現自動化，將勞動時間轉移到有意義的地方，再次繼續提高我們所需的生產力查看整個業務。

The backlog is there.

積壓就在那裡。

It's exceptionally strong, both defense and commercial.

無論是國防還是商業，它都異常強大。

And as we continue to see the supply chain get healthy as we continue to drive automation in our connected factories, the productivity, I think, will come in this business across all three segments and frankly, be tailwind to the margin expansion we expect across all three businesses.

隨著我們繼續推動互聯工廠的自動化，我們繼續看到供應鏈變得健康，我認為，該業務的所有三個部門的生產力都將提高，坦白說，這將成為我們預期的所有利潤率擴張的順風車。

Maybe to add with respect to Raytheon, we've already seen about $110 million of productivity benefit year over year.

或許還要補充一點，雷神公司的生產力效益逐年提高約 1.1 億美元。

So I think really good traction.

所以我認為牽引力確實很好。

We had talked about seeing about $200 million on a full-year basis.

我們曾討論過全年營收約 2 億美元。

And I think we're largely on track to do that.

我認為我們基本上正在實現這一目標。

The backlog programs that have been causing consternation in the supply chain aberrations are diminishing now, and we're replenishing that backlog with new bookings that are priced at current prices with the current lead times embedded in them.

導致供應鏈異常的積壓計劃現在正在減少，我們正在用新的預訂來補充積壓的訂單，這些訂單按當前價格定價，並嵌入當前的交貨時間。

So encouraging to see the progress so far, and I think we'll continue to expect that to continue at Raytheon in particular.

到目前為止所取得的進展令人鼓舞，我認為我們將繼續期望雷神公司能夠繼續這一進展。

But as Chris said, across the portfolio in all of our areas where we're doing long-term contract accounting.

但正如克里斯所說，在我們進行長期合約會計的所有領域的投資組合中。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

So maybe if we could talk about Collins, please, both on the OE side and the aftermarket.

因此，也許我們可以談談柯林斯，無論是在原廠設備還是售後市場方面。

Collins aftermarket was up 9%, OE was down 8%.

Collins 售後市場上漲 9%，OE 下跌 8%。

First on the OE, it implies Q4 down 15%, just given the flat guidance now.

首先在 OE 上，這意味著第四季下降 15%，目前僅給出持平的指引。

So what are you expecting there just around the shipset volumes?

那麼您對船舶數量有何期望呢？

If you could give any color.

如果你能給任何顏色。

And then secondly, maybe if you could talk about the aftermarket up 9%.

其次，也許您可以談談售後市場上漲 9%。

I know tough comps in some of the businesses there, but how do you think about the correlation between OE down and aftermarket?

我知道那裡的一些業務的競爭非常激烈，但是您如何看待原廠設備下降和售後市場之間的相關性？

Are you seeing any aftermarket benefit from the delayed deliveries?

您認為延遲交貨對售後市場有什麼好處嗎？

Thanks, Sheila.

謝謝，希拉。

Let me start on the OE side.

讓我從 OE 方面開始。

As you heard us talk about, we did recalibrate the Collins outlook for the rest of the year, taking into account, the fact that our OE was down in the quarter, and that was really driven by a few things.

正如您聽到我們談論的那樣，考慮到我們的 OE 在本季度下降的事實，我們確實重新調整了柯林斯今年剩餘時間的前景，這實際上是由一些因素驅動的。

I would say narrowbody volumes were down.

我想說窄體飛機的銷量有下降。

We saw a little bit both on the A320 side as well as the 737 side.

我們在 A320 側和 737 側都看到了一些。

We obviously had a little bit of impact from start of the strike as well.

顯然，從罷工開始我們也產生了一些影響。

And what we've done is we've calibrated a level of impact here in the rest of the year going forward.

我們所做的是在今年剩餘時間調整了一定程度的影響力。

We think we got that reasonably calibrated.

我們認為我們已經進行了合理的校準。

We do expect to resume some shipments later in the quarter.

我們確實預計將在本季稍後恢復部分出貨。

And like everybody, we're looking forward to tomorrow and the situation at Boeing getting resolved.

和所有人一樣，我們期待明天以及波音公司的情況得到解決。

So I think we got that calibrated.

所以我認為我們已經校準了。

That's really what's driving the majority of that.

這確實是其中大部分的推動因素。

There's also a little bit of mix headwind going on within the widebody.

寬體飛機中也存在一些混合逆風。

Widebody in the quarter was up about 1% on the sales line but what we saw is a little bit higher weighting towards 787 and lower A350.

本季寬體機的銷量成長了約 1%，但我們看到 787 的權重稍高，而 A350 的權重較低。

And as you all know, the 787 is not a profitable line for us on the OE side.

眾所周知，787 對我們的 OE 而言並不是一個有利可圖的產品線。

That's been exacerbated by the movement of Heat Exchangers from Russia into the United States and the UK, so a couple of things that we're dealing with there.

由於熱交換器從俄羅斯轉移到美國和英國，這種情況變得更加嚴重，因此我們正在那裡處理一些事情。

But I think as we look at the rest of the year, we've got that reasonably calibrated on the OE side, and that's what [causes] us to take down the number.

但我認為，當我們審視今年剩餘時間時，我們已經在 OE 方面進行了合理校準，這就是我們減少這一數字的原因。

Now on the aftermarket side, we're continuing to see good provisioning, good repair work going through at Collins, and so I still feel good about that.

現在在售後市場方面，我們繼續看到柯林斯正在進行良好的供應和維修工作，所以我仍然對此感覺良好。

I think it remains to be seen about longer term how this plays out.

我認為從長遠來看，這將如何發揮作用還有待觀察。

But clearly, the older platforms are continuing to fly.

但顯然，舊平台仍在繼續運作。

We've seen very low levels of retirements and that supports continued aftermarket strength that we're seeing at Collins, and I expect that to continue into next year as well, so those are a few comments there on those two items.

我們看到退休人數非常低，這支持了我們在柯林斯看到的售後市場的持續強勢，我預計這種情況也將持續到明年，所以這些是對這兩個項目的一些評論。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Maybe, Neil, just to level set us on maybe free cash flow kind of the cadence when you think about it going forward.

尼爾，也許只是為了讓我們了解可能是自由現金流，當你考慮未來時的節奏。

You've talked about obviously, this year, if we back out the payments and everything, you guys are probably over 80% kind of conversion.

顯然，你已經談到，今年，如果我們取消付款和一切，你們的轉換率可能會超過 80%。

Just thinking at a high level, when you think about '25, how are you thinking in terms of any moving parts or pluses or minuses we should be thinking?

只是從高層次思考，當你想到'25時，你如何思考我們應該考慮的任何移動部分或優點或缺點？

Or does conversion improve with all of kind of the initiatives that Chris has established on productivity and whatnot.

或者克里斯在生產力等方面製定的各種措施是否會提高轉換率。

How do we think about that?

我們對此有何看法？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

First of all, in '24, we remain very confident in the $4.7 billion.

首先，24年我們對47億美元仍然充滿信心。

As I laid out in my prepared remarks, we've got a couple of moving pieces, but I think we'll be able to manage the inventory going forward to deal with the headwind that we're seeing this year.

正如我在準備好的演講中所述，我們有一些令人感動的事情，但我認為我們將能夠管理未來的庫存，以應對今年遇到的逆風。

We're still counting on some significant working capital benefit this year, about $700 million year over year.

我們仍然指望今年能獲得一些重大的營運資金收益，年比約為 7 億美元。

And I think that's a big opportunity for RTX.

我認為這對 RTX 來說是一個巨大的機會。

As we look at our balance sheet, we've been doing the right things to protect the supply chain.

當我們查看資產負債表時，我們一直在採取正確的措施來保護供應鏈。

We've got significant sales ahead of us.

我們前面有大量的銷售。

So we want to be ready to deliver on that but that's an opportunity for us to continue to convert the working capital turns, drive those up higher, and deliver some more free cash flow.

因此，我們希望做好實現這一目標的準備，但這對我們來說是一個機會，可以繼續轉換營運資金周轉率，推動營運資金周轉率更高，並提供更多的自由現金流。

I think big picture, we see a lot of organic strength in the free cash flow.

我認為從大局來看，我們在自由現金流中看到了很多有機力量。

I think that's evidenced by the $4 billion of free cash flow we've seen year to date.

我認為今年迄今為止 40 億美元的自由現金流就證明了這一點。

We're expecting another strong operational fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季度的營運將再次強勁。

We've got some payments that we're going to deal with that are consistent with what we talked about last quarter.

我們將要處理的一些付款與我們上季度討論的情況一致。

But as we look longer term, I see no reason why the business here won't generate 90% to 100% free cash flow conversion against adjusted net income.

但從長遠來看，我認為這裡的業務沒有理由不能根據調整後的淨利潤產生 90% 至 100% 的自由現金流轉換。

So all the right pieces in place, the underlying demand is there.

因此，所有正確的部分都已就位，潛在的需求就在那裡。

We need to calibrate around OE deliveries longer term, and everybody's got an eye on the broader economy and inflation.

我們需要長期圍繞原廠交貨進行調整，每個人都在關注更廣泛的經濟和通膨。

But right now, I think the underlying drivers of the business remain strong.

但目前，我認為業務的潛在驅動力仍然強勁。

Yeah.

是的。

And just to add on to that, Peter, as we've talked about, I think, pretty consistently, a big piece of that cash flow growth is the profit growth in the aftermarket and up 23% last year, year to date growth this year, 12%, so still robust, continue to see strong RPK growth.

彼得，補充一點，正如我們所討論的，我認為，現金流增長的很大一部分是售後市場的利潤增長，去年增長了 23%，今年迄今為止的增長今年增長了12%，因此仍然強勁，RPK持續強勁增長。

Collins has that installed base that's out of warranty, that's about

柯林斯的安裝基礎已超出保固期，大約是

[$100 billion] (corrected by company after the call). V2500 continues to be strong.

[1000 億美元]（公司在電話會議後更正）。 V2500持續強勁。

We've seen low retirements there.

我們看到那裡的退休人數很低。

So, the fundamentals, as Neil pointed out, in the aftermarket continue to be really strong, big piece of that cash story.

因此，正如尼爾指出的那樣，售後市場的基本面仍然非常強勁，是現金故事的重要組成部分。

[Ronald Epstein, BofA Securities] (technical difficulty)

[Ronald Epstein，美國銀行證券]（技術難度）

Hopefully, you can hear.

希望你能聽到。

So what are the takeaways?

那麼要點是什麼？

It seemed like after spending a couple of days at AUSA this year that this next generation of company seems to be getting a little bit of traction, right?

今年在 AUSA 待了幾天后，這家下一代公司似乎受到了一些關注，對嗎？

So you know who I'm talking about, the Palantirs and Andurils of the world.

所以你知道我在說誰，世界上的 Palantir 和 Andurils。

How are you thinking about them?

你覺得他們怎麼樣？

Are they a competitive threat?

它們是競爭威脅嗎？

Are they potential partners?

他們是潛在的合作夥伴嗎？

How are you thinking about defense tech?

您如何看待國防技術？

I know you've got your RTX Ventures division.

我知道你們有 RTX Ventures 部門。

But broadly, how are you thinking about that?

但總的來說，您對此有何看法？

And is it an opportunity or a threat?

這是機會還是威脅？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Ron.

謝謝，羅恩。

I think it's both.

我認為兩者都是。

I think there are areas where I think we're competing in the marketplace.

我認為我們在市場的某些領域存在競爭。

And I think we remain always paranoid about competition across the landscape, established players and some of these new players.

我認為我們仍然對整個領域的競爭、老牌玩家和其中一些新玩家保持偏執。

We continue to invest heavily in R&D and in our innovation, roadmaps and story.

我們繼續大力投資研發以及我們的創新、路線圖和故事。

And I think one of the advantages that we've got is our ability to scale and scale production, a very sophisticated production system and be able to scale.

我認為我們擁有的優勢之一是我們有能力擴大生產規模，擁有非常複雜的生產系統並且能夠擴大規模。

Now there are things that we also learn from our competitors about agility, about low cost, about getting things out to market faster.

現在，我們也從競爭對手那裡學到了一些關於敏捷性、低成本、更快地將產品推向市場的東西。

Again, all parts of the things, when we look at the competitive landscape, we're looking at and bringing in-house, seeing how we can adapt.

再次強調，當我們審視競爭格局時，我們會考慮並引入內部人員，看看我們如何能夠適應。

But at the end of the day, I think we've got a fantastic product portfolio that's going to be critical to the US and our allies for decades to come.

但歸根結底，我認為我們擁有出色的產品組合，這對美國和我們的盟友在未來幾十年至關重要。

But I also, as I said upfront, view it as potential partnership opportunities.

但正如我之前所說，我也將其視為潛在的合作機會。

There are things that they do very well, perhaps on the software side that could be of use to our products given our hardware expertise.

他們在某些方面做得非常好，也許在軟體方面，考慮到我們的硬體專業知識，這些可以對我們的產品有用。

Again, we're looking at it both ways.

同樣，我們從兩個方面來看待它。

And as you noted in your question, we continue to invest in early-stage companies through RTX Ventures.

正如您在問題中指出的那樣，我們繼續透過 RTX Ventures 投資早期公司。

And I'll tell you just reviewed this with our board.

我會告訴你剛剛與我們的董事會一起審查了這一點。

There's a few promising investments that we've made that we think will give us access to technologies that we can integrate into our established product portfolio to add capabilities and performance.

我們已經進行了一些有前景的投資，我們認為這些投資將使我們能夠獲得可以整合到我們現有的產品組合中的技術，以增加功能和性能。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·考恩。

I was wondering if you could frame up for us when do you think at Raytheon defense productivity takes a more significant turn.

我想知道您是否可以為我們指出您認為雷神公司的國防生產力何時會發生更重大的轉變。

I mean, obviously, this year, it's a big change year over year.

我的意思是，顯然，今年，與去年相比發生了很大的變化。

You do have some challenged programs that at some point, I imagine are also kind of a negative to that ledger.

你確實有一些受到挑戰的計劃，我想這些計劃在某些時候也會對該分類帳產生負面影響。

When do those kind of roll off?

這些什麼時候會消失？

And do we ever get back to the prepandemic $200 million-plus of favorable?

我們還能恢復到疫情前 2 億多美元的優惠嗎？

And if so, when is that realistic?

如果是這樣，什麼時候才是現實的？

Thanks for the question, and welcome to the call.

感謝您的提問，歡迎您的來電。

I want to thank Cai for over 50 years of following our company.

我要感謝蔡先生 50 多年來對我們公司的關注。

So welcome to following us, Gautam, it'll be good to work with you.

歡迎關注我們，Gautam，很高興與您合作。

Just a comment on the Patriot, on the productivity here.

只是對愛國者和這裡的生產力發表評論。

We've seen $110 million year-over-year improvement, like I said, expect that to be close to $200 million.

正如我所說，我們已經看到年增 1.1 億美元，預計將接近 2 億美元。

So I think we're certainly turning the corner there.

所以我認為我們肯定正在扭轉局面。

And as you pointed out, there are still some headwinds in there.

正如您所指出的，其中仍然存在一些阻力。

And I think there always will be.

我認為永遠都會有。

Programs will go well and some will have some challenges.

計劃會進展順利，但有些計劃會遇到一些挑戰。

We do difficult stuff.

我們做困難的事。

I won't get into specifics for next year, but we expect that to continue to improve as we go forward.

我不會透露明年的具體情況，但我們預計隨著我們的前進，情況會繼續改善。

Whether we get back to the same levels of the productivity, I think, depends entirely on the mix and the environment that we're operating in.

我認為，我們是否能恢復到相同的生產力水平，完全取決於我們所處的組合和環境。

Now we clearly have a lot of backlog, which allows us to buy material at large volumes.

現在我們顯然有大量積壓，這使我們能夠大量購買材料。

And that's where we tend to drive the majority of our productivity.

這就是我們提高大部分生產力的地方。

What we really need to do to see greater levels of productivity relative to the bidding margins here is to have productivity in our factories as well on the assembly side.

要看到相對於投標利潤的更高水準的生產力，我們真正需要做的是提高我們工廠以及組裝方面的生產力。

And that will come with improvement in the supply chain, and we already talked about the importance of rocket motors to that value stream.

這將隨著供應鏈的改進而實現，我們已經討論過火箭發動機對該價值流的重要性。

So those are the kinds of things we're watching, but I would say that there is a lot of good positive productivity embedded in the business.

這些就是我們正在關注的事情，但我想說的是，企業中蘊藏著許多良好的正向生產力。

We're working through the backlog where the pricing was not aligned with the cost inflation that we've experienced over the last few years, and we're seeing the international mix improve.

我們正在解決積壓的訂單，其中定價與我們過去幾年經歷的成本通膨不一致，我們看到國際組合有所改善。

I think longer term, we'll start to see LTAMDS and other large franchises come into play as well, and those will give us more opportunities for productivity.

我認為從長遠來看，我們將開始看到 LTAMDS 和其他大型特許經營權發揮作用，這將為我們提供更多提高生產力的機會。

So bottom line, hard to put a number on it, but we're going to see that margin improvement.

因此，底線是，很難給出具體數字，但我們會看到利潤率有所改善。

We're seeing it this year.

我們今年就看到了。

We expect to see more of that next year.

我們預計明年會看到更多這樣的情況。

And I think this business has turned the corner in terms of the productivity steps forward that we're all hoping for.

我認為，就我們所希望的生產力進步而言，這項業務已經度過了難關。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

I wanted to follow up on Collins.

我想跟進柯林斯的情況。

There was a shortfall in the quarter, the guide is down, I think, about $75 million, which is around what you guys missed my estimate in this quarter.

本季度出現了短缺，我認為指南下降了約 7500 萬美元，這大約是你們在本季度錯過的估計值。

And you talked about the guide down relating to absorption of the Boeing strike and all that, which seems like it should be ahead of us.

您談到了有關吸收波音罷工之類的指南，這似乎應該放在我們前面。

But it would seem that the pickup in the margin at Collins in the fourth quarter.

但柯林斯第四季的利潤似乎有所回升。

And I wonder if you could talk about what's driving that and how much that absorption really impacted Q3 versus other stuff?

我想知道您是否可以談談是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及與其他因素相比，這種吸收對第三季的影響到底有多大？

Sure, Seth.

當然，賽斯。

Let me take that one.

讓我拿走那個。

Let me talk about a few of the moving pieces on the ROS for the quarter.

讓我談談本季 ROS 的一些動態。

First of all, we did see positive lift of about 300 basis points from higher volume in Collins commercial aftermarket and defense channels.

首先，我們確實看到柯林斯商業售後市場和國防通路的交易量增加了約 300 個基點。

So that was good to see, and that dropped through.

所以很高興看到這一點，但最終還是失敗了。

Offsetting that, we saw about 200 basis points of headwind from the lower commercial OE volume and the associated absorption and disruption impact and unfavorable mix in the quarter.

抵消了這一影響的是，我們看到商業原廠銷量下降以及相關的吸收和中斷影響以及本季​​度的不利組合帶來了約 200 個基點的阻力。

So we did experience some unfavorable mix and drop-through on that.

所以我們確實經歷了一些不利的混合和下降。

The volumes are down sequentially and year over year on the OE side.

OE 方面的銷量連續下降且年減。

So I already talked about some of the moving pieces there.

我已經談到了一些令人感動的事情。

Talked about 787 volume being a little bit higher inside of the widebody, and so that creates headwind as well.

談到 787 的寬體機內部體積稍高，因此也會產生逆風。

And third, we saw about 100 basis points of headwind from a combination of a few things.

第三，由於一些因素的綜合作用，我們看到了大約 100 個基點的阻力。

We had higher R&D, about $40 million.

我們的研發費用較高，約 4000 萬美元。

I attribute that to mostly timing within the year that was within our avionics business as we continue to invest in upgrades to those platforms, slightly higher SG&A, and we saw a little bit of headwind in our Interiors business.

我將其歸因於我們航空電子業務的一年內的時間安排，因為我們繼續投資於這些平台的升級，SG&A 略高，並且我們在內飾業務中看到了一些阻力。

We've talked in the past about some of the first-class and business-class seating, certification challenges that the business is seeing, you've heard about that with us and more broadly across the industry.

我們過去曾討論過一些頭等艙和商務艙座椅以及企業面臨的認證挑戰，您已經與我們以及整個行業更廣泛的人聽說過這些問題。

So we did have about $35 million of contract headwind in the quarter.

因此，本季我們確實面臨約 3500 萬美元的合約阻力。

Again, I don't expect that to repeat.

再說一遍，我不希望這種情況再發生。

So as we look from Q3 to Q4, we see about 130 basis points at the midpoint of our outlook margin uptick.

因此，從第三季到第四季來看，我們的預期利潤率上調幅度中位數約為 130 個基點。

And I think that's going to largely come from the mitigation actions that we're undertaking to address the temporary reduction in the OE deliveries at Collins in particular and of course, the absence of the EAC headwind on the Interiors business that we saw here in the third quarter.

我認為這很大程度上來自於我們正在採取的緩解行動，以解決柯林斯原配設備交付量暫時減少的問題，當然，我們在 2017 年的內飾業務中也沒有遇到 EAC 逆風。

So I kind of characterize these items as short term in nature, one-time.

所以我認為這些項目本質上是短期的、一次性的。

There's good strong underlying strength in the business.

該業務具有強大的基礎實力。

The aftermarket is really strong.

售後市場確實很強大。

We're getting good drop-through there.

我們在那裡取得了很好的進展。

Defense has been very, very strong.

防守非常非常強大。

And Collins has taken good proactive measures here to make sure we balance keeping our supply chain warm and our factories moving so that we're prepared to restart deliveries as soon as Boeing gets the work stoppage behind them.

柯林斯在這裡採取了積極主動的措施，以確保我們在保持供應鏈溫暖和工廠運作之間取得平衡，以便我們準備好在波音停工後立即重新開始交付。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Just following up there on the Collins margin.

只是在柯林斯邊緣跟進。

You had the '25 framework implied that segment margin just below 20% and had the incremental stepping up a lot next year.

'25 框架意味著細分市場利潤率略低於 20%，並且明年增量將大幅增加。

Is that still the directional framework or have just a lot of things moved around?

這仍然是方向框架還是只是有很多東西改變了？

And then on the GTF powder metal, any numbers you can put around how many engines have actually gone through the process and are back in service.

然後在 GTF 粉末金屬上，您可以輸入任何數字來表示有多少引擎實際上已經完成了該過程並重新投入使用。

And then of the engines we can see are off wing, how many of them are in a shop versus in line to get in a shop?

然後，在我們可以看到的已離機的引擎中，有多少是在車間裡的，有多少是在排隊進入車間的？

Yeah.

是的。

Noah, I'll start with the powder metal and then Neil can chime in on the Collins margin question.

諾亞，我將從粉末金屬開始，然後尼爾可以插話柯林斯利潤問題。

So again, just to reiterate, been pretty consistent on this, everything coming off the line today, going to the airframers as the full life powder metal parts.

再次強調，在這一點上保持一致，今天所有的東西都下線了，作為全壽命粉末金屬零件送到機身製造商那裡。

MRO, again, it's a balance of the material and of that allocation and it's going to be a ramp, again, as I said, throughout the year.

MRO，再次，這是材料和分配的平衡，正如我所說，全年都會有一個斜坡。

I would say you're going to really start to turn the corner on the insertion of powder metal parts as we head into 2025.

我想說，當我們進入 2025 年時，粉末金屬零件的插入將真正開始扭轉局面。

As we continue to ramp up the isothermal forging, as I said, 38% up year over year, and we're putting in place continued capacity in all pieces of that value stream to continue to ramp in 2025.

正如我所說，隨著我們繼續提高等溫鍛造產量，年增 38%，並且我們正在該價值流的所有部分持續投入產能，以便在 2025 年繼續提高產能。

So we have to do less balancing of that material in 2025, so that's the story on powder metal.

因此，到 2025 年，我們必須減少對該材料的平衡，這就是粉末金屬的故事。

In terms of what's being inducted and what's in the parking lot, yeah, there still remain a significant number of engines that are awaiting induction.

就正在導入的內容和停車場中的內容而言，是的，仍然有大量引擎正在等待導入。

Again, that's a big part of what it's going to take us to power through this particular situation over a multi-year period.

同樣，這也是我們在多年時間內應對這一特殊局勢的重要組成部分。

I would say the turnaround times, however, are still in line with what we've talked about previously, the shop visit mix still consistent between heavy and light.

然而，我想說的是，週轉時間仍然與我們之前討論的一致，商店訪問的組合在重型和輕型之間仍然保持一致。

And as I've said before, when we get our Gate two, which is our material accumulation, into a healthy spot.

正如我之前所說，當我們將二號門（即我們的物質累積）置於健康狀態時。

We've had pockets of this throughout our MRO shops, our turnaround times, in particular on heavy work scopes has been exceptional.

我們的 MRO 車間都配備了這種設備，我們的周轉時間（特別是在重型工作範圍內）非常出色。

So again, we've got to continue to get the material flow going again, try to get to a point in 2025 where that balance has to become less pronounced.

因此，我們必須繼續讓物質流再次運轉，並努力在 2025 年達到這種平衡變得不那麼明顯的程度。

And once we do, we'll start to see that flow through our engines and get inductions in a better spot.

一旦我們這樣做了，我們將開始看到氣流通過我們的引擎並在更好的位置獲得感應。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

On the margins, no, let me just talk a little bit about, I'm not going to get ahead of ourselves on '25 and provide specific guidance today.

順便說一句，不，讓我簡單談談，我不會在 25 年超越自己並在今天提供具體指導。

We'll be back in January to do that but as I think about the Collins business, there are a few things we're watching.

我們將在一月份回來做這件事，但當我想到柯林斯業務時，我們正在關註一些事情。

Notably, the OE levels, I think that's an important ingredient.

值得注意的是，我認為 OE 水準是一個重要因素。

And as we get through the fourth quarter here, we'll have a lot more clarity on what that's going to look like.

當我們度過第四季度時，我們會對未來的情況有更清晰的了解。

As we've talked about for a long time now, the Collins business is capacitized to deliver at volumes that are much higher than where we are today.

正如我們長期以來所談論的那樣，柯林斯業務的交付量遠高於我們今天的水平。

And frankly, in some cases, much higher than where we were in 2020 and certainly in 2019.

坦白說，在某些情況下，遠高於 2020 年的水平，當然也高於 2019 年的水平。

So absorption is a really important part of the Collins OE story, and we need to see the volumes increase to get better unit cost on the deliveries.

因此，吸收是柯林斯 OE 故事中非常重要的一部分，我們需要看到銷售量增加，以獲得更好的單位交付成本。

That's a watch item for us.

這對我們來說是一個手錶項目。

Like everybody, we're continuing to update and renew our long-term agreements and with that comes some pressure on the cumulative effect of inflation over the years.

和所有人一樣，我們正在繼續更新和續簽我們的長期協議，隨之而來的是多年來通膨累積效應的一些壓力。

So something that we also want to make sure we get calibrated into our outlook for next year.

因此，我們也希望確保我們能夠根據明年的前景進行調整。

But underlying all this is really, really strong Collins demand.

但這一切的背後是柯林斯非常非常強烈的需求。

They're on the right platforms, the provisioning has been strong, repairs are strong.

他們位於正確的平台上，配置強大，維修能力強。

We see the demand for the OE side continuing both Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer.

我們看到空中巴士、波音和巴西航空工業公司對原始設備的需求仍在持續。

So it really is strong fundamentals, but a few watch items that we need to kind of calibrate into the margin story.

因此，這確實是強大的基本面，但我們需要在保證金故事中調整一些觀察項目。

That said, I expect the margins to grow at Collins.

也就是說，我預期柯林斯的利潤率將會成長。

We expect good operating profit growth next year, and we expect that to convert to free cash flow growth as well.

我們預計明年營業利潤將實現良好成長，並預計這也將轉化為自由現金流成長。

So the fundamentals of the business are there and remains strong for both next year and years to follow.

因此，該業務的基本面已經存在，並且在明年和未來幾年仍然保持強勁。

And maybe just to add, Noah, I think Neil laid it out well, obviously, the installed base, the $100 billion of out-of-warranty equipment.

也許只是補充一下，諾亞，我認為尼爾顯然很好地闡述了安裝基礎，價值 1000 億美元的保外設備。

It's going to continue to drive aftermarket and profitability and margin expansion at Collins.

它將繼續推動柯林斯的售後市場、獲利能力和利潤率擴張。

But the part that I'll accentuate here is the cost reduction actions that are a key part of this.

但我在這裡要強調的部分是降低成本的行動，這是其中的關鍵部分。

There's the tactical.

還有戰術。

You heard Neil talk about some of those cost curtailment actions that Troy and the team have put in place as a result of the work stoppage and the lower OE volumes so we've been pretty aggressive there.

你聽到 Neil 談到 Troy 和團隊因停工和原始設備產量減少而採取的一些成本削減措施，因此我們在這方面採取了相當積極的行動。

But also talk about the more structural cost reduction that's happening there.

但也要談談那裡正在發生的更多結構性成本削減。

The movement of 2.7 million hours to low-cost areas, the formation of centers of excellence like electronics to get economies of scale in important parts of the value stream so that's the other piece of the Collins story that the team is focused on.

將 270 萬小時轉移到低成本領域，形成電子產品等卓越中心，以在價值流的重要部分實現規模經濟，這是柯林斯團隊關注的另一個故事。

As Neil said, on the right platforms, that's going to continue to provide tailwinds.

正如尼爾所說，在正確的平台上，這將繼續提供順風。

The focus on cost is going to be really important as well.

對成本的關注也非常重要。

I really appreciate all that.

我真的很感激這一切。

Neil, did you quantify the EAC in Collins in the quarter?

Neil，您量化了本季柯林斯的 EAC 嗎？

Yes, it's about $35 million on the Interiors side.

是的，內裝方面的花費約為 3500 萬美元。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

So I wanted to follow up on GTF and the spend there.

所以我想跟進 GTF 以及那裡的支出。

I think, Neil, you had talked about it ramping up in Q3.

我想，尼爾，你已經談到了第三季的成長。

It doesn't look like it did.

看起來不像。

It sounds like you plan on spending less this year, maybe if you can help us what the path looks like from here as it relates to '25 and '26.

聽起來你今年計劃減少支出，也許你可以幫助我們了解與「25」和「26」相關的路徑。

But I guess just high level, if you're reaching compensation agreements with your customers, your customers have a lot of aircraft on the ground out of service.

但我想，如果你與客戶達成賠償協議，那麼你的客戶就會有很多飛機停飛。

I guess, why aren't you paying more?

我想，為什麼不多付點錢呢？

Or are you swapping maybe cash payments for something else in the future?

或者您將來可能會用現金支付來換取其他東西嗎？

Sure, David.

當然，大衛。

Happy to provide a little more color there.

很高興在那裡提供更多的顏色。

First of all, just so everyone's grounded, we do expect to make about $1 billion worth of payments this year.

首先，為了讓大家都腳踏實地，我們預計今年將支付約 10 億美元的款項。

We've made a little over $300 million year to date.

今年迄今為止，我們的收入已略高於 3 億美元。

We've talked about the number of customer agreements that we have in place.

我們已經討論過我們已簽訂的客戶協議的數量。

It's 28 now, covers about 75% of the AOGs.

現在已經是28個了，覆蓋了大約75%的AOG。

And so what we do as a matter of our practice here, we're crediting the customers as the AOGs occur.

因此，作為我們的實踐，我們在 AOG 發生時將信用歸功於客戶。

We consider that a cash payment when that credit is applied to a customer account or we make a cash payment.

當該信用額應用於客戶帳戶或我們進行現金支付時，我們認為是現金支付。

So that's how we're quantifying it.

這就是我們量化它的方式。

It's a cash equivalent, if you will, impact to us during the year.

如果你願意的話，這相當於現金等價物，對我們這一年的影響。

It's coming down a little bit because it's taken some time to get these agreements in place.

它有所下降，因為需要一些時間才能達成這些協議。

And once we have agreements, then we're following the terms of those agreements and issuing those credits or making those payments.

一旦我們達成協議，我們就會遵循這些協議的條款並發放這些信用或支付這些款項。

We do expect that to ramp up now in the fourth quarter.

我們確實預計第四季度這一數字將會上升。

What I can say is overall, all of the underlying financial assumptions that gave rise to the charge we took and the reserve we put up remain consistent and the agreements that we've executed also remain consistent with those underlying assumptions.

我能說的是，總體而言，導致我們收取的費用和我們提出的準備金的所有基本財務假設保持一致，我們執行的協議也與這些基本假設保持一致。

So I won't get into specifics around when we expect the ultimate payments to make place, but we'll continue to provide the same level of transparency about what we're spending and how much we're spending so that we all and you all have a good look at the underlying organic performance of the business.

因此，我不會詳細說明我們預計最終付款何時進行，但我們將繼續就我們的支出以及支出金額提供相同水平的透明度，以便我們所有人和您所有人都很好地了解了業務的基本有機績效。

So that's where I would say we are today.

這就是我想說的我們今天的處境。

We'll certainly see the fallout of these payments take place over the next couple of years as those AOGs continue to exist and then come down as planned as we move through next year into '26.

我們肯定會在未來幾年看到這些付款的影響，因為這些 AOG 繼續存在，然後在明年進入「26」時按計劃減少。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

I think you had said $1.5 billion next year and then $200 million tail in '26.

我想你說過明年 15 億美元，然後 26 年尾 2 億美元。

Does that doesn't hold anymore?

這不再成立了嗎？

It's more likely to kind of shift out to the right?

更有可能向右移動？

Well, I would just say that sometime over the next two years, we're going to make the full amount that we've accrued for at this time.

好吧，我只想說，在未來兩年的某個時候，我們將全額收回目前累積的金額。

The assumptions remain the same.

假設保持不變。

We'll provide an update on that in January as well.

我們也將在一月提供相關更新。

Again, giving everybody the visibility and transparency to exactly what we're assuming.

再一次，讓每個人都能清楚了解我們的假設。

If it's different, we'll update our outlook accordingly.

如果不同，我們將相應更新我們的展望。

Doug Harned, Bernstein & Company.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦公司。

On Raytheon, you've got great orders here, strong international, focused very much on missile defense.

在雷神公司，你在這裡得到了大量訂單，強大的國際訂單，非常關注導彈防禦。

So that's very good, as I see it for margin expansion going ahead.

所以這非常好，因為我認為這有利於未來的利潤率擴張。

But can you talk a little bit about the other side of the business, the airborne and space systems, which have been more difficult for you for growth.

但您能否談談業務的另一面，即機載和太空系統，這對您的成長來說更加困難。

What's going on there in terms of strategy and how you see that part playing out?

戰略方面發生了什麼事？

I think you're right.

我認為你是對的。

It has been a more challenged story for us.

這對我們來說是一個更具挑戰性的故事。

As you pointed out, when you look at the demand in the backlog today, significant strength in that integrated air and missile defense.

正如您所指出的，當您查看今天積壓的需求時，會發現綜合防空和飛彈防禦領域的巨大實力。

And that's going to be a driver of Raytheon in '25 and beyond, frankly, when you look at the size of this backlog.

坦白說，當你看看積壓訂單的規模時，這將成為雷神公司 25 年及以後的驅動力。

There are other pieces of the business that we're evaluating, Doug.

道格，我們正在評估該業務的其他部分。

I think we've got, for instance, some real strength in our space business.

例如，我認為我們在太空業務方面擁有一些真正的實力。

Now is it where we've historically been strong and will that continue into the future?

現在這就是我們歷史上一直表現強勁的地方，這種情況會持續到未來嗎？

That's what we're evaluating.

這就是我們正在評估的。

There are certain parts of that space domain today that have been really, really difficult for anybody to make into a profitable business right now.

如今，太空領域的某些部分對於任何人來說都非常非常難以成為有利可圖的業務。

We don't want to go chase business and buy business at really, really difficult margins on fixed-price development programs.

我們不想去追逐業務並以非常非常低的利潤購買固定價格開發計劃的業務。

That's not who we want to be in that space.

那不是我們想在那個領域成為的人。

We've got to play to our strengths, things like space protection, ISR, C2.

我們必須發揮我們的優勢，例如太空保護、ISR、C2。

So those are the areas that we're continuing to look at and say, how do we strengthen the foundation and other pieces of this business that we either need to invest further in or decide that's not where we see the growth in that portfolio coming.

因此，這些是我們正在繼續關注的領域，我們如何加強該業務的基礎和其他部分，我們要么需要進一步投資，要么決定這不是我們看到該投資組合成長的地方。

Is there a time frame that you can see where you'll pretty much have a new strategy in place and positioned for growth.

是否有一個時間框架，您可以看到在這個時間框架內您幾乎可以製定新的策略並為成長做好準備。

Well, first of all, I think Raytheon is exceptionally well positioned for growth.

嗯，首先，我認為雷神公司處於非常有利的成長位置。

I would say it large, Doug, as you kind of said in your question.

我想說的是，道格，正如你在問題中所說的那樣。

In these particular areas, yeah, we're undergoing a portfolio evaluation across the board, as we always do, to determine what parts of the business while might be strong historically, aren't necessarily going to be a part of the business going forward.

是的，在這些特定領域，我們正在像往常一樣進行全面的投資組合評估，以確定業務的哪些部分雖然在歷史上可能表現強勁，但不一定會成為未來業務的一部分。

That's ongoing.

這是持續進行的。

We do that every year around this time of year and we'll make some of those decisions as we head into 2025.

我們每年都會在每年的這個時候這樣做，並且在進入 2025 年時我們將做出其中一些決定。

Now again, these are long-cycle businesses, as you know, Doug.

再說一次，如你所知，這些都是長週期業務，道格。

So pivoting a strategy in some of these areas will take some time, and we're going to be thoughtful about it.

因此，在其中一些領域調整策略需要一些時間，我們將對此進行深思熟慮。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

I know we'll learn tomorrow on the Boeing front or learn more tomorrow anyway.

我知道明天我們會了解波音方面的情況，或者無論如何明天都會了解更多。

But I wanted to clarify that you said you're full stopped.

但我想澄清一下，你說你已經完全停止了。

And if your expectation is that you would resume when Boeing resumes or if you think there's some possibility for destocking there?

如果您的期望是當波音復工時您會復工，或者您認為那裡有去庫存的可能性？

Yes, like you, we'll be watching closely tomorrow.

是的，和您一樣，我們明天也會密切注意。

Pleased about the news regarding a potential resolution, that would be good news, not just for Boeing for us but for the industry.

對潛在解決方案的消息感到高興，這將是個好消息，不僅對波音公司而言，對我們而言也是如此。

I think everyone is certainly rooting for that.

我想每個人都肯定會支持這一點。

We've actually -- and Neil referenced this in the prior answer, we've continued to try to keep our value streams healthy; our supply base and our factories.

事實上，尼爾在先前的回答中提到了這一點，我們一直在繼續努力保持我們的價值流健康；我們的供應基地和工廠。

That means, we've continued to take in material on certain higher volume programs and continue to build product.

這意味著，我們繼續吸收某些大容量項目的材料並繼續建造產品。

And once this work stoppage is over, then whatever has to happen logistically for Boeing to start receiving material, we want to be prepared to be able to do that.

一旦停工結束，無論後勤方面發生什麼，波音公司才能開始接收材料，我們都希望做好準備，能夠做到這一點。

I mean obviously, Boeing is going to want to ramp in '25 and beyond.

我的意思是，顯然，波音公司希望在 25 年及以後擴大業務。

We want to make sure that all facets of the value stream are healthy enough to do that.

我們希望確保價值流的所有面向都足夠健康，能夠做到這一點。

So we haven't just stopped cold turkey that just wouldn't be healthy for the supply chain.

因此，我們並沒有停止對供應鏈不利的冷火雞做法。

I wouldn't be healthy for our factories.

我對我們工廠的健康不利。

So we've continued to do that.

所以我們繼續這樣做。

There are other parts of the Boeing product portfolio that we have, that have stopped, that we've taken certain cost curtailment measures.

我們擁有的波音產品組合的其他部分已經停止，我們已經採取了某些成本削減措施。

But by and large, we've continued to, again, take in material and build product because we want to be ready when the re-ramp arrives.

但總的來說，我們再次繼續吸收材料並製造產品，因為我們希望在重新調整到來時做好準備。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Chris, it seems like there's a lot of 787s already built sitting in Charleston, I think, waiting for seats, I think mostly for Lufthansa and American.

克里斯，我想查爾斯頓已經有很多 787 飛機在等待座位，我想主要是漢莎航空和美國航空。

Is Collins the seating supplier for either of those airlines?

柯林斯是這兩家航空公司的座位供應商嗎？

And then do you have any sense for where you're at on the FAA review there for those customers, assuming Collins actually is the seating supplier for either of those?

然後，假設柯林斯實際上是其中任何一個的座椅供應商，那麼您是否知道 FAA 對這些客戶的審查處於什麼位置？

Yeah.

是的。

It is a seating supplier on certain of those, not all of them, but certain of them.

它是其中某些座位的供應商，不是全部，但只是其中的某些座位。

And yes, you're absolutely right.

是的，你是完全正確的。

We are working through the certification with both Boeing and the FAA so that is ongoing.

我們正在與波音公司和美國聯邦航空局進行認證，因此這項工作正在進行中。

While that's ongoing, we're continuing to drive the supply chain to make sure that we've got the material we need so that when that gets behind us, we can go make deliveries and then they can continue their flow and get it out to the customers who are obviously looking for the lift.

在此過程中，我們將繼續推動供應鏈，以確保我們擁有所需的材料，以便當我們獲得所需材料時，我們可以進行交付，然後他們可以繼續其流程並將其運送到顯然是在尋找電梯的顧客。

And again, I said this before, as the strike has happened, 787 to your point is not a part of that.

再說一次，我之前說過，由於罷工已經發生，787 就你的觀點而言不是其中的一部分。

And so we've just been full steam ahead on making sure that as Boeing decides it wants to take rate up that we're there and ready to do it.

因此，我們一直全力以赴，確保當波音公司決定提高利率時，我們已經準備好了。

Neil referenced Heat Exchangers and what we need to do there in terms of the environmental control system.

尼爾提到了熱交換器以及我們需要在環境控制系統方面做什麼。

There are other parts of the 787 content that we've got to continue to ramp to support Boeing.

我們必須繼續增加 787 內容的其他部分以支援波音。

We know that's going to be a crucial part of their recovery, and we want to make sure we're poised to help them there.

我們知道這將是他們康復的關鍵部分，我們希望確保我們準備好為他們提供幫助。

And Neil, sorry if I missed this, but is there any directional framework you can share on how to think about military aftermarket growth at Pratt next year?

尼爾，抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點，但是您是否可以分享任何方向性框架，以了解如何思考普拉特明年的軍事售後市場增長？

Just given the installed base, I think would be growing a lot now that the delivery hold has been lifted, and I assume flight activity starts to ramp up?

就安裝基礎而言，我認為現在交付擱置已解除，並且我認為航班活動開始增加，數量將會增長很多？

No problem.

沒問題。

Thanks, Scott.

謝謝，斯科特。

Yeah, I don't want to get too far ahead of us, but I mean we saw a really strong 20% military growth at Pratt in the quarter.

是的，我不想走得太遠，但我的意思是，我們在普拉特本季看到了 20% 的強勁軍事成長。

I would say the aftermarket was right in line with that.

我想說售後市場與此相符。

So as the installed base, as you pointed out, continues to grow, I do expect Pratt to continue to see the benefits of the top-line growth there.

因此，正如您所指出的，隨著安裝基礎的持續增長，我確實預計普拉特將繼續看到那裡收入成長的好處。

I won't put a number around it today, but it's going to be continued strong growth on the military business at Pratt.

今天我不會透露具體數字，但普拉特的軍事業務將持續強勁成長。

That's a great business there, and we're seeing the margins grow as well as the mix shift goes from sort of a baseline of OE levels of production that then grows on the top line on the sustainment side.

這是一項偉大的業務，我們看到利潤率增長，並且混合轉變從原始設備生產水平的基線開始，然後在維持方面的頂線增長。

And it's not just F135, it's F117 as well as we pointed out in our prepared remarks.

不只是F135，還有我們在準備好的發言中指出的F117。

So, see continued growth there.

因此，看到那裡的持續增長。

The orders in the quarter at Pratt were 2x what they were a year ago and even more so at Raytheon.

普拉特公司本季的訂單量是一年前的兩倍，雷神公司的訂單量甚至更多。

So again, the backlog remains really, really strong in all of our defense businesses as we look ahead.

因此，展望未來，我們所有國防業務的積壓仍然非常非常強勁。

Thank you.

謝謝。

With that, I would now like to turn the conference back to Nathan Ware.

說到這裡，我現在想把會議轉回內森·韋爾。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Lateef.

謝謝你，拉蒂夫。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

As always, the Investor Relations team and I will be available for follow-up questions, so I really appreciate everyone joining and have a good day.

像往常一樣，我和投資者關係團隊將隨時回答後續問題，因此我非常感謝大家的加入並祝您有個愉快的一天。

This now concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。