雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lateef, and I will be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加RTX 2023年第四季財報電話會議。我叫Lateef，今天將由我擔任接線生。 （接線生指示）

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www.rtx.com.

出席今日電話會議的嘉賓包括：董事長兼執行長 Greg Hayes、總裁兼營運長 Chris Calio、財務長 Neil Mitchill 以及投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Reed。本次電話會議將透過網路直播，簡報可從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX's SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，本公司將討論持續經營業績，不包括收購會計調整以及管理層通常稱為「其他重大項目」的淨非經常性及/或重大項目。本公司也提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述均受風險和不確定性的影響。 RTX 向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素。 （操作員指示）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給海耶斯先生。

All right. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We've got a lot to cover today, but let me start with the news we shared last month, which I'm sure you all saw. Effective on May 2, the date of our Annual Shareholders Meeting, Chris Calio will become the new CEO of RTX. Chris' appointment is the result of a very deliberate and thoughtful succession planning process conducted by our Board of Directors over the past 3 years. While I'm going to remain in my role as Executive Chairman, Chris will be taking the reins of the company.

好的。謝謝大家，早安。今天我們有很多內容要講，但我想先從我們上個月分享的消息開始，我相信大家都看到了。從5月2日，也就是我們年度股東大會的當天起，克里斯·卡利奧將成為RTX的新任執行長。克里斯的任命是我們董事會在過去三年精心策劃的繼任計畫的成果。我將繼續擔任執行董事長，而克里斯將接手公司。

As you all know, I've worked with Chris for many years, and I can't think of a better person to take on this role. Chris has a deep understanding of our industry, our customers' needs and our operation, and most importantly, he's an outstanding leader. You know I'd like to say that I'm honored to have led this organization for almost the last 10 years. But most importantly, I'd like to thank each and every employee who has supported our mission over the last decade. We would not have been able to accomplish all we did, if not for you. Going forward, I have the utmost confidence in Chris' ability to lead this great company and continue to drive performance and value creation for all of our stakeholders for years to come.

眾所周知，我與克里斯共事多年，我想不出還有誰比他更適合擔任這個職位。克里斯對我們的行業、客戶需求和營運有著深刻的理解，最重要的是，他是一位傑出的領導者。我很榮幸在過去近十年裡領導這家公司。但最重要的是，我要感謝每一位在過去十年中支持我們使命的員工。如果沒有你們，我們不可能有今天的成就。展望未來，我對克里斯領導這家偉大公司的能力充滿信心，並相信他能夠在未來繼續推動業績成長，為所有利害關係人創造價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to take you through an update on our end markets and the year. Chris?

接下來，請克里斯向您介紹我們的終端市場和今年的最新情況。克里斯？

Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you, Greg. I'd like to start by thanking all RTX employees for their contributions last year, and I want to share how humbled I am that our Board has given me the opportunity to lead this world-class team. As we move forward, our focus will continue to be on delivering our record backlog, accelerating innovation and driving operational performance across the portfolio to meet our customer and shareholder expectations.

大家早安，謝謝你，格雷格。首先，我要感謝所有RTX員工去年的貢獻，同時，董事會給予我領導這支世界級團隊的機會，我深感榮幸。未來，我們將繼續專注於創造創紀錄的訂單量，加速創新，並提升整個投資組合的營運績效，以滿足客戶和股東的期望。

I'd also like to acknowledge a couple of other leadership changes we've recently announced. First, I'd like to thank Wes Kremer for his significant contributions to the company as he transitions into retirement. Over the course of his 20-year career here, Wes has led the development of some of Raytheon's most successful programs, including LTAMDS, Standard Missile-3 and a range of strategic missile defense systems that defend the homeland and our allies. Wes has also played a critical role in restructuring the Raytheon business unit to better align with the needs of our customers.

我還要感謝我們最近宣布的其他幾項領導層變動。首先，我要感謝韋斯·克雷默（Wes Kremer）在退休之際對公司的重大貢獻。在韋斯20年的職業生涯中，他領導了雷神公司一些最成功的項目的開發，包括LTAMDS、標準導彈-3以及一系列保衛美國國土和盟友的戰略導彈防禦系統。韋斯還在重組雷神公司業務部門以更好地滿足客戶需求方面發揮了關鍵作用。

With Wes' retirement, Phil Jasper has been appointed as President of the Raytheon business. Phil brings with him over 30 years of experience in aerospace and defense and most recently led the Collins Mission Systems business, where he played a critical role in integrating RTX's connected battle solutions this past year. Phil's deep knowledge of our military customers and their priorities, and his experience leading many business transformation initiatives throughout his career positions him well to lead Raytheon.

隨著韋斯的退休，菲爾·賈斯珀被任命為雷神公司總裁。菲爾在航空航太和國防領域擁有超過30年的經驗，最近領導了柯林斯任務系統業務，並在去年整合RTX的聯網戰鬥解決方案中發揮了關鍵作用。菲爾對我們軍事客戶及其優先事項有著深入的了解，並且在其職業生涯中領導過許多業務轉型項目，這些經驗使他成為雷神公司的理想領導者。

Now before I cover the highlights of the year, let me get into an update on our end markets. First and foremost, demand for our products and services in both commercial aerospace and defense has never been stronger. Air travel has returned to, and in some cases, surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and the global threat environment is driving unprecedented demand, especially in air defense systems.

在回顧今年的亮點之前，我想先介紹一下我們終端市場的最新情況。首先，也是最重要的一點是，無論是商用航空航太或國防領域，對我們產品和服務的需求都達到了前所未有的強勁水平。航空旅行已經恢復到疫情前的水平，在某些情況下甚至超過了疫情前的水平。全球威脅環境正在推動前所未有的需求，尤其是在防空系統方面。

Starting with commercial aero, we saw solid air traffic growth this past year, with global revenue passenger miles back to 2019 levels and domestic air travel now 5% above 2019 levels as we exited the year. The strong recovery has helped drive significant aftermarket demand for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft, with growth expected to continue into 2024.

從商用航空開始，我們在過去一年見證了穩健的航空運輸成長，全球收入客運里程已恢復至2019年的水平，截至年底，國內航空旅行量較2019年高出5%。強勁的復甦推動了寬體和窄體飛機售後市場的強勁需求，預計這一增長將持續到2024年。

On the defense side, increases in global spending have led to a defense backlog, which is now at $78 billion, up $9 billion from a year ago. Just this past quarter, we received a GEM-T order with $2.8 billion from NATO, which is the largest GEM-T contract recorded in Raytheon history. Domestically, we are pleased that a bipartisan funding agreement has been reached, supporting increased defense spending and expect Congress will complete their work on the full year '24 Appropriations Bill in the next several weeks.

在國防方面，全球支出的增加導致國防訂單積壓，目前已達780億美元，比去年同期增加了90億美元。就在上個季度，我們收到了來自北約的一份價值28億美元的GEM-T訂單，這是雷神公司歷史上最大的GEM-T合約。在國內，我們很高興兩黨達成了一項撥款協議，支持增加國防開支，並預計國會將在未來幾週內完成2024年全年撥款法案的審議工作。

With that, let me turn to Slide 2, and provide an update on 2023, and I'll start with some of the highlights. We delivered $74.3 billion in adjusted sales for the full year, up 11% organically, and adjusted EPS of $5.06 was up 6% year-over-year, both of which were ahead of our outlook. And more importantly, we ended the year with $5.5 billion in free cash flow, which also exceeded our commitment. On a full year basis, commercial aftermarket was up 23%, commercial OE was up 20% and defense was up 4%.

接下來，請容許我翻到第二張投影片，介紹一下2023年的最新情況，首先我會介紹一些亮點。全年我們實現了743億美元的調整後銷售額，有機成長11%，調整後每股收益5.06美元，年增6%，兩項數據均超出了我們的預期。更重要的是，我們以55億美元的自由現金流結束了這一財年，這也超出了我們的承諾。全年來看，商用售後市場成長了23%，商用原廠配件成長了20%，國防業務成長了4%。

On the capital allocation front, we returned over $16 billion of capital to shareowners for the year, including $12.9 billion of share repurchases, supported by our $10 billion ASR and $3.2 billion in dividends. We're beginning the process of deleveraging this year to ensure we maintain a strong balance sheet, which will be in part supported by the closure of our previously announced divestitures.

在資本配置方面，我們今年向股東返還了超過160億美元的資本，其中包括129億美元的股票回購，以及100億美元的年化收益（ASR）和32億美元的股息。我們今年將啟動去槓桿進程，以確保維持強勁的資產負債表，而先前宣布的資產剝離計畫的完成將在一定程度上支持這一目標。

At the same time, we remain focused on ensuring that business continues to be positioned to achieve sustained growth. In 2023, we spent almost $10 billion in CapEx and company and customer-funded R&D, while capturing $95 billion in new bookings, resulting in company-wide backlog growth of 12% and a book-to-bill of 1.28, ending the year with a record RTX backlog of $196 billion.

同時，我們將繼續專注於確保業務持續成長。 2023年，我們在資本支出以及公司和客戶資助的研發方面投入了近100億美元，同時獲得了950億美元的新訂單，全公司未完成訂單量增長了12%，訂單出貨比達到1.28，年底RTX未完成訂單量創下了1960億美元的紀錄。

So while there's a lot of positive momentum in our markets and across the business, we have 2 matters we've been heavily focused on, Pratt's powder metal situation and Raytheon's margins. So let me hit these 2 head on, and I'll start with powdered metal. Our top priority continues to be executing on our fleet management plans, and both the financial and operational outlook remain consistent with our call last October.

因此，儘管我們的市場和整個業務都呈現出積極的勢頭，但我們一直重點關注兩個問題：普惠的粉末金屬情況和雷神公司的利潤率。讓我來正面談談這兩個問題，先從粉末金屬開始。我們的首要任務仍然是執行我們的機隊管理計劃，財務和營運前景與我們去年10月的預測一致。

While we are still in the early stages, let me provide a few more details on the progress we've made to date. As you saw, Pratt has issued the necessary service bulletins and service instructions to operators, which are entirely consistent with our underlying financial and operational assumptions that we previously communicated. The FAA is in the process of drafting the corresponding airworthiness directives, which we expect to be issued within the next month or so. And just as a reminder, it is common practice for a fleet management plan to be communicated through multiple service bulletins and airworthiness directives to address different engine models, compliance times or components and sections of the engine. We continue to conduct ultrasonic angle scan inspections on powder metal parts and our findings remain consistent with our prior analysis and assumptions.

雖然我們仍處於早期階段，但請允許我提供一些有關我們迄今為止所取得進展的更多細節。如您所見，普惠已向營運商發布了必要的服務公告和服務說明，這些公告和服務說明與我們先前傳達的基本財務和營運假設完全一致。美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 正在起草相應的適航指令，我們預計將在下個月左右發布。另外，需要提醒的是，機隊管理計畫通常會透過多個服務公告和適航指令進行傳達，以涵蓋不同的引擎型號、合規時間或引擎的部件和部分。我們將繼續對粉末金屬零件進行超音波角度掃描檢查，其結果與我們先前的分析和假設保持一致。

Let me now turn to our industrial plans. You'll recall our focus is on ramping production of HPT and HPC disks to support both OE and MRO deliveries. We've made solid progress here as well, we continue to secure the necessary machining and inspection capacity for increased disk production. Today, all OE GTF engines being delivered to our customers' final assembly line contain disks produced from powdered metal manufactured after Q3 2021 and have full certified lives.

現在，我來談談我們的工業計劃。大家應該還記得，我們​​的重點是提高高性能渦輪增壓 (HPT) 和高性能渦輪增壓 (HPC) 盤片的產量，以支援 OE 和 MRO 交付。我們在這方面也取得了紮實的進展，並將繼續確保必要的加工和檢測能力，以增加盤片產量。目前，所有交付給客戶總裝線的 OE GTF 引擎均採用 2021 年第三季後生產的粉末金屬製成的盤片，並且擁有完整的認證使用壽命。

On the GTF MRO front, we have begun installing full-life disks during certain shop visits, and the number of engines receiving full-life disks in MRO will increase throughout the year as we continue to ramp up production of these parts. Our estimated wing-to-wing turnaround time remains consistent with our prior guidance. Pratt grew GTF MRO by almost 30% year-over-year in 2023, while also making investments in additional shops, test cell capacity and repair capability to support even more growth in 2024.

在GTF引擎維護、維修和大修（MRO）方面，我們已開始在某些車間安裝全壽命盤。隨著我們持續提升這些零件的產量，全年在MRO中安裝全壽命盤的引擎數量將持續成長。我們預期的翼對翼週轉時間與先前的預期保持一致。普惠公司在2023年將GTF引擎的MRO業務年增近30%，同時也將投資於額外的車間、測試單元產能和維修能力，以支援2024年的進一步成長。

With respect to the number of AOGs, we continue to expect the roughly 350 on average that we previously guided. However, we will likely see a lower peak level than previously anticipated due to the timing of the AD issuance and proactive fleet management by our customers. Additionally, our conversations with customers continue to progress. To date, we have finalized several customer support agreements, and these have been in line with the assumptions we outlined last year.

關於停機坪 (AOG) 數量，我們預計平均 AOG 數量將維持在先前預測的 350 架左右。然而，由於 AD 簽發時間以及客戶主動管理機隊的方式，峰值水平可能會低於先前的預期。此外，我們與客戶的溝通仍在持續進行中。迄今為止，我們已敲定多項客戶支援協議，這些協議與我們去年提出的預期一致。

And lastly, just a comment on the remaining Pratt & Whitney fleets. Both the financial and operational outlook remain consistent with what we discussed on our prior call and we continue to execute on those fleet management (added by company after the call) plans.

最後，我想談談普惠公司剩餘的機隊。財務和營運前景與我們上次電話會議上討論的一致，我們將繼續執行這些機隊管理計劃（公司在電話會議後新增了這些計劃）。

I'll now shift to Raytheon's performance. We continue to experience profitability challenges driven by productivity headwinds within the business, primarily attributable to legacy fixed-price development programs that we have previously discussed as well as continued supply chain and operational headwinds. Let me start by providing some color around our productivity issues, and it's important to note that we are, in fact, achieving productivity in several parts of Raytheon's business, in particular, on certain legacy product families where we've received successive awards that are creating scale in our factories and in our supply chain. For example, we increased GEM-T output by 50% year-over-year by using our CORE system to refine work instructions, increase test equipment uptime and reduce product cycle time, all without additional capital or manpower.

現在，我將談談雷神公司的業績。我們持續面臨獲利挑戰，這主要源於公司內部生產力方面的不利因素，這主要歸因於我們之前討論過的遺留固定價格開發項目，以及持續的供應鏈和營運方面的不利因素。首先，我想先介紹一下我們的生產力問題。需要指出的是，事實上，我們在雷神公司多個業務領域都實現了生產力提升，尤其是在某些傳統產品系列上，我們已連續獲得獎項，這些獎項正在我們的工廠和供應鏈中形成規模效應。例如，我們透過使用 CORE 系統來優化工作指令、延長測試設備正常運作時間並縮短產品週期，使 GEM-T 的產量年增了 50%，而這一切都無需額外的資金或人力。

We also recognize productivity gains when we successfully retire technical and schedule risks on our contracts, which is more frequent in our programs in the production phase. However, those gains have been overcome by unfavorable productivity in other areas. In 2023, about 70% of this headwind came from challenges on fixed price development programs, and the remaining 30% was driven by unfavorable material costs as well as supplier delinquencies, which have had the effect of extending the period of performance in several cases.

當我們成功消除合約中的技術和進度風險時，我們也能實現生產力提升，這在我們處於生產階段的專案中更為常見。然而，這些提升被其他領域生產力的不利影響所抵消。 2023年，約70%的不利因素來自固定價格開發專案的挑戰，其餘30%則源自於材料成本的不利影響以及供應商違約，這些因素在多個案例中導致履約期延長。

So what are we doing about it? Our plan to stabilize the current performance and deliver profitable growth consists of a few elements. One, we expect improvement in our fixed price development programs as we satisfy certain technical and programmatic milestones. We will also be more selective and disciplined about the work we pursue moving forward. Two, we are making modifications in our approach to winning new work. We continue to ensure that our new contracts and additional contractual lots have better protection from supplier inflation. This will take some time to play through, but we expect this will help us improve our margin profile.

那麼，我們正在採取什麼措施呢？我們穩定當前業績並實現盈利性增長的計劃包含幾個方面。首先，隨著我們達到某些技術和專案里程碑，我們預計固定價格開發專案將有所改善。未來，我們將更加謹慎地選擇和嚴格地開展工作。其次，我們正在調整贏得新項目的方法。我們將繼續確保新合約和新增合約批次能夠更好地抵禦供應商價格上漲的影響。這需要一些時間才能見效，但我們預計這將有助於我們改善利潤率。

Three, we continue to drive improved supply chain performance and material flow. Overall, our material receipts were up 8% in 2023, and we need to continue on that trajectory here in 2024. Four, we continue to take indirect cost actions that will help us avoid some of the headwinds we experienced in 2022 and 2023. For instance, we optimized Raytheon's realigned business structure by further consolidating and streamlining several of our sub-business units earlier this month. This will reduce indirect costs and overhead and better position the business for profitable growth.

第三，我們將持續推動供應鏈績效和物料流的改善。整體而言，我們的物料收入在2023年成長了8%，我們需要在2024年繼續維持這一成長動能。第四，我們將繼續採取間接成本控制措施，以幫助我們避免2022年和2023年遇到的一些不利因素。例如，本月初，我們透過進一步整合和精簡了雷神公司幾個子業務部門，優化了重新調整後的業務結構。這將降低間接成本和管理費用，並更好地幫助公司實現獲利成長。

And lastly, there will be some tailwind that comes from a mix shift in our business as development programs and technical refreshes move into production and the mix of our sales shifts more towards FMS and DCS. So there's obviously a lot of work to do. But this business has a strong foundation and it starts with its product portfolio. As I said earlier, the demand for Raytheon's products is incredibly strong, and I'm confident that Phil and the team are focused on addressing these challenges and delivering this record backlog at the margins that we need.

最後，隨著開發項目和技術更新投入生產，以及我們的銷售結構更多地轉向FMS和DCS，我們的業務結構將發生轉變，這將帶來一些利好。因此，顯然還有很多工作要做。但這項業務擁有堅實的基礎，這始於其產品組合。正如我之前所說，市場對雷神產品的需求非常強勁，我相信菲爾和他的團隊正專注於應對這些挑戰，並以我們所需的利潤率交付創紀錄的訂單。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil to take you through our fourth quarter results.

接下來，請容許我把時間交給尼爾，讓他向您介紹我們的第四季業績。

Thanks, Chris. Turning to Slide 3. We finished the year strong and ahead of our expectations, with solid growth in organic sales across all 3 segments, even as the year-over-year comparisons became more difficult, and overall segment operating profit for the year was up 18% versus 2022. We also ended the year with strong free cash flow, as you heard from Chris. For the fourth quarter, we had adjusted sales of $19.8 billion, up 10% organically versus the prior year. This was primarily driven by growth in commercial aerospace as well as growth across defense in all 3 segments.

謝謝，克里斯。翻到第三張投影片。我們以強勁的業績結束了這一財年，超越了我們的預期。儘管同比比較變得更加困難，但所有三個部門的有機銷售額都實現了穩健成長。全年整體部門的營業利潤較2022年增加了18%。正如克里斯之前所說，我們也以強勁的自由現金流結束了這一財年。第四季度，我們的調整後銷售額為198億美元，較上年有機成長10%。這主要得益於商用航空航太業務的成長以及國防業務所有三個部門的成長。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 was a bit better than our expectations, and up 2% as profit from higher commercial aftermarket at Pratt and Collins and drop-through on higher defense volume was partially offset by the expected headwinds from higher interest, taxes and lower pension income. Keep in mind, we dealt with about $2.3 billion of inflationary headwinds in 2023, of which about 1/4 of that was in the fourth quarter, which we largely overcame through pricing and cost reduction actions.

調整後每股收益為1.29美元，略好於我們的預期，增長了2%，這主要是因為普惠柯林斯商用售後市場利潤增長以及國防業務量增加帶來的利潤下降，被利息、稅費上漲和養老金收入下降等預期阻力部分抵消。需要注意的是，我們在2023年應對了約23億美元的通膨阻力，其中約四分之一發生在第四季度，我們主要透過定價和成本削減措施克服了這些阻力。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.05 per share and included $0.29 of acquisition accounting adjustments, a $0.06 benefit related to a customer settlement and $0.01 of net charges associated with the restructuring and other nonrecurring items. And finally, we delivered free cash flow of $3.9 billion in the quarter, bringing our total free cash flow for the year to $5.5 billion, which is about $700 million ahead of our prior outlook as powder metal related impacts have shifted and year-end collections were stronger than expected.

以美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 計算，持續經營業務每股收益為 1.05 美元，其中包括 0.29 美元的收購會計調整、0.06 美元的客戶結算相關收益以及 0.01 美元的重組及其他非經常性項目相關淨費用。最後，本季我們實現了 39 億美元的自由現金流，使我們全年的總自由現金流達到 55 億美元，由於粉末金屬相關影響已經轉移，且年終收款額強於預期，這比我們之前的預期高出約 7 億美元。

With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share our thoughts on 2024 and 2025.

說完這些，讓我把時間交給詹妮弗，讓她向大家介紹一下各個部分的結果，然後我會回來分享我們對 2024 年和 2025 年的看法。

Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins on Slide 4. Sales were $7 billion in the quarter, up 12% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by continued strength in commercial OE and aftermarket growth. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 23%, driven by a 27% increase in provisioning, a 26% increase in parts and repair and an increase of 7% in mods and upgrades in the quarter.

謝謝，尼爾。首先從第四張投影片上的柯林斯開始。本季銷售額為70億美元，調整後和有機成長均達12%，主要得益於商用原廠配套和售後市場持續強勁的成長。按通路劃分，商用售後市場銷售額成長23%，其中，本季備貨成長27%，零件和維修成長26%，改裝和升級成長7%。

Commercial OE sales for the quarter were up 17% versus the prior year, driven by continued growth in both narrow-body and wide-body platforms, and military sales were up 1%, primarily due to higher deliveries. Adjusted operating profit of $1.04 billion was up $190 million or 22% from the prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable mix, partially offset by lower commercial OE as drop-through on OE volume was more than offset by higher production costs. In addition, higher R&D expense was offset by lower SG&A.

本季商用原廠配套飛機銷售額年增17%，這得益於窄體和寬體平台的持續成長；軍用飛機銷售額成長1%，主要得益於交付量的增加。調整後營業利潤為10.4億美元，較上年增長1.9億美元（22%），其中商用售後市場銷量增加及產品組合優化導致利潤下降，但因原廠配套飛機銷量下降被生產成本上升所抵消，部分抵消了商用原廠配套飛機銷售額的下降。此外，研發費用的增加被銷售、一般及行政費用的下降所抵銷。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5, sales of $6.4 billion were up 14%, both on an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across all 3 channels. Commercial OE sales were up 20% in the quarter, driven by higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 18% in the quarter, driven by higher volume in both large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. And in the military business, sales were up 4%, primarily driven by higher sustainment volume, which was partially offset by lower material inputs on production programs.

轉到投影片5上的普惠公司，銷售額達64億美元，年增14%，包括調整後銷售額和有機銷售額，三個通路都成長。本季商用原廠配套銷售額成長20%，這得益於引擎交付量增加以及大型商用引擎和普惠加拿大業務的良好組合。本季商用售後市場銷售額成長18%，這得益於大型商用引擎和普惠加拿大業務的銷售成長。軍用業務銷售額成長4%，主要得益於維護量增加，但生產項目材料投入減少部分抵銷了這一增長。

Adjusted operating profit of $405 million was up $84 million from the prior year, primarily driven by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable commercial OE mix. This was partially offset by higher commercial OE volume, higher production costs an unfavorable military contract adjustment and the absence of a benefit from a prior year customer contract adjustment. And finally, higher R&D expense was offset by lower SG&A.

調整後營業利潤為4.05億美元，較上年同期增加8,400萬美元，主要由於商用售後市場銷售增加和商用原廠配件組合良好導致的利潤下降。商用原廠配件銷售增加、生產成本上升、不利的軍工合約調整以及上年客戶合約調整收益的缺失，部分抵銷了調整後營業利潤的下降。最後，研發費用的增加被銷售、行政及管理費用的降低所抵銷。

Now turning to Raytheon on Slide 6. Sales of $6.9 billion in the quarter were up 3% on an adjusted basis and 4% organically, primarily driven by higher volume on advanced technology and air power program. Adjusted operating profit for the quarter of $618 million was up $48 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by higher volume and lower operating expenses, partially offset by unfavorable net program efficiencies.

現在就來看看投影片6上的雷神公司。本季銷售額為69億美元，調整後成長3%，有機成長4%，主要得益於先進技術和空中力量專案銷售的提升。本季調整後營業利潤為6.18億美元，較上年同期成長4,800萬美元，主要得益於銷售提升和營運費用下降，但部分抵銷了淨項目效率的下降。

Bookings and backlog continue to be very strong as we finish the year. In the fourth quarter, $9.1 billion of bookings resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.33, and an end of the year backlog of $52 billion. And for the full year, Raytheon's book-to-bill was 1.22.

截至年底，雷神公司的訂單量和積壓訂單量依然強勁。第四季，91億美元的訂單量使訂單出貨比達到1.33，年底積壓訂單量達到520億美元。全年來看，雷神公司的訂單出貨比為1.22。

With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on 2024.

說完這些，我將把話題轉回給尼爾，讓他為 2024 年提供一些資訊。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let's turn to Slide 7. Before I get into the specifics on our '24 financial outlook, just a couple of comments on the environment as we look ahead. So let me start with the positives. As Chris said, global RPMs are back to 2019 levels. However, they have not fully recovered with respect to long-haul international travel, particularly wide-body, but that is expected to continue to be a tailwind for us going forward. On the narrow-body side, demand for new aircraft remains strong, which continues to support both OE and aftermarket growth. Specific to the commercial OE side, with increasing commercial production rates, we expect commercial OE revenue will be up between about 10% and 15% in '24. And with respect to commercial aftermarket, we currently expect sales to be up over 10% in '24, and that's on top of the 23% growth we saw in '23.

謝謝詹妮弗。我們來看第7張投影片。在詳細介紹我們2024年的財務前景之前，我先就我們展望未來的環境談幾點看法。首先，我先從正面的方面說起。正如克里斯所說，全球零售價格已恢復到2019年的水平。然而，長途國際旅行，尤其是寬體客機，尚未完全恢復，但預計這將繼續成為我們未來發展的順風。在窄體客機方面，對新飛機的需求仍然強勁，這將持續支撐原廠配套和售後市場的成長。具體到商用原廠配套方面，隨著商用飛機生產率的提高，我們預計2024年商用原廠配套收入將成長約10%至15%。至於商用售後市場，我們目前預計2024年的銷售額將成長10%以上，而這還是在2023年23%的成長之上。

Turning to defense, global defense spending remains elevated, which will continue to support our backlog ahead as our key programs remain well funded. Across RTX, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence to deliver cost reduction and further margin expansion. In 2023, we achieved $295 million of incremental RTX merger cost synergies, keeping us on track to achieve our $2 billion in gross cost synergy goal by the end of 2025.

談到國防，全球國防開來支持續高企，這將繼續支撐我們未來的訂單積壓，因為我們的關鍵項目資金仍然充足。在RTX，我們始終專注於推動卓越運營，以降低成本並進一步提高利潤率。 2023年，我們實現了2.95億美元的RTX合併成本綜效增量，使我們有望在2025年底前實現20億美元的總成本綜效目標。

On the challenges side, there are certain pockets where inflation remains elevated. We will see the lingering effect of the past couple of years' inflation as we deliver on our backlog. In '24, we expect to see about $1.7 billion of material and labor inflation, which we expect to be more than offset by higher pricing and the benefits from our digital transformation projects and other aggressive cost reduction initiatives across the company. And as Chris said before, we continue to focus on executing on our GTF fleet management plans and are working relentlessly to mitigate further disruption to our customers.

挑戰方面，部分地區通膨率仍居高不下。在交付積壓訂單的過程中，我們將看到過去幾年通膨的持續影響。 2024年，我們預計材料和勞動力通膨將達到約17億美元，但我們預計，更高的定價、數位轉型項目以及公司其他積極的成本削減舉措帶來的效益將足以抵消這部分通膨。正如克里斯之前所說，我們將繼續專注於執行GTF引擎機隊管理計劃，並正在不懈地努力，以減輕對客戶的進一步影響。

And of course, we're continuing to support the health of the supply chain. While we are seeing continued improvements, there are areas that remain challenged where we are dedicating resources, including suppliers who provide structural castings and rocket motors, 2 critical areas that continue to pace our recovery. And as I mentioned back in October, we continue to see headwinds due to the actions we have taken to preserve the improved funded status of our pension plans as well as the recognition of historical asset experience. And finally, we're keeping an eye on the U.S. and global tax environment, Congressional action on the fiscal year '24 budget and, of course, the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.

當然，我們將繼續支持供應鏈的健康發展。雖然我們看到了持續的改善，但仍有一些領域面臨挑戰，我們正在投入資源，包括提供結構鑄件和火箭引擎的供應商，這兩個關鍵領域將繼續推動我們的復甦。正如我十月份提到的，由於我們為維持退休金計畫的資金狀況以及對歷史資產經驗的認可而採取的措施，我們仍然面臨阻力。最後，我們密切關注美國和全球的稅收環境、國會對2024財年預算的行動，當然還有更廣泛的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境。

So with that backdrop, let me tell you how this translates to our financial outlook for the year on Slide 8. At the RTX level, we expect another year of solid growth in adjusted sales, segment operating profit and earnings per share, along with continued strength in free cash flow. Before I get into the details, let me share with you a couple of key assumptions embedded in our outlook as it relates to the 2 dispositions we announced last year. First, with respect to the Raytheon cybersecurity business, we have assumed that this transaction will close here in the first quarter. Therefore, on a reported basis, we will see about a $1.3 billion year-over-year reduction in reported sales and about an $80 million year-over-year headwind to operating profit. The Collins '24 outlook still includes the actuation business as we continue to work on the business disposition.

在這樣的背景下，讓我在第 8 張投影片中告訴您這對我們今年的財務展望有何影響。在 RTX 層面，我們預計調整後銷售額、部門營業利潤和每股盈餘將再實現一年的穩健成長，同時自由現金流也將持續強勁。在詳細介紹之前，讓我先與您分享我們展望中與去年宣布的兩項處置相關的幾個關鍵假設。首先，關於雷神網路安全業務，我們假設這筆交易將在第一季完成。因此，按報告計算，我們將看到報告銷售額年減約 13 億美元，營業利潤年減約 8,000 萬美元。柯林斯 24 年展望仍包括執行器業務，我們將繼續致力於業務處置。

So with that, starting with sales, at the RTX level, we expect full year 2024 sales of between $78 billion and $79 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 7% and 8% year-over-year. From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted EPS of between $5.25 and $5.40, and that's up 4% to 7% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $5.7 billion for the year. And despite only being up $200 million year-over-year, there is strong operational improvement, so let me take you through the moving pieces.

因此，首先從銷售額開始，就RTX層面而言，我們預計2024年全年銷售額將在780億美元至790億美元之間，這意味著同比增長7%至8%。從獲利角度來看，我們預期調整後每股盈餘將在5.25美元至5.40美元之間，年增4%至7%。我們預計全年將產生約57億美元的自由現金流。儘管年增僅2億美元，但營運狀況顯著改善，讓我來為您詳細介紹一下具體情況。

First, we are expecting strong segment profit growth and working capital improvement to drive $2.3 billion of improvement year-over-year. Embedded in that is about $100 million headwind on higher CapEx in '24 as we continue to invest in capacity expansion, digital transformation and operational modernization. Payments related to powder metal impacts are expected to be a headwind of about $1.3 billion. We'll also see a net headwind of about $500 million, primarily from higher interest expense, principally from the debt we issued to fund the ASR. And finally, a headwind of about $300 million from lower pension CAS recovery.

首先，我們預期強勁的分部利潤成長和營運資本改善將推動業績年增23億美元。同時，由於我們將繼續投資於產能擴張、數位轉型和營運現代化，2024年資本支出增加將帶來約1億美元的不利影響。預計與粉末金屬影響相關的付款將帶來約13億美元的不利影響。我們也將面臨約5億美元的淨不利影響，主要來自利息支出增加，這主要源自於我們為ASR計畫融資而發行的債務。最後，退休金CAS回收率下降也將帶來約3億美元的不利影響。

Now let me turn to our EPS walk, starting at the segment level. Operating profit growth of about 16% is expected to result in approximately $0.72 of EPS growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. With respect to pension, while markets have improved since our call in October, there will still be a headwind of about $0.36 year-over-year. And as I just mentioned, given the increased debt outstanding, interest expense will be a $0.30 headwind. A lower average outstanding share count resulting from our recent ASR will provide a tailwind of about $0.37. And finally, our tax rate in '24 is expected to be approximately 19.5% versus the 18.5% in 2023. This, combined with higher corporate investments in digital transformation, will result in a $0.16 headwind year-over-year. All of this brings us to our outlook range of $5.25 to $5.40 per share.

現在，我來談談我們對每股盈餘的展望，首先從各部門開始。預計營業利潤成長約16%，將帶來約0.72美元的每股盈餘成長，這在我們預期區間的中點。就退休金而言，儘管自我們10月份的電話會議以來市場有所好轉，但與去年相比，仍將面臨約0.36美元的阻力。正如我剛才提到的，由於未償還債務的增加，利息支出將帶來0.30美元的阻力。由於我們最近的平均股利調整率(ASR)導致的平均流通股數量減少，將帶來約0.37美元的阻力。最後，我們2024年的稅率預計約為19.5%，而2023年為18.5%。再加上企業在數位轉型方面的投資增加，將帶來0.16美元的阻力。所有這些因素共同決定了我們每股盈餘預期區間為5.25美元至5.40美元。

Okay. With that, let's go to Slide 9 to get into our outlook by segment, where we expect continued organic sales and earnings growth across all 3 businesses. Starting with Collins, we expect full year sales to be up mid- to high-single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by both wide-body and narrow-body commercial OE production ramps and continued commercial aftermarket. Military sales at Collins are expected to be up low to mid-single digits for the year. With respect to Collins' adjusted operating profit, we expect it to grow between $650 million and $725 million versus last year. This is primarily driven by drop-through on higher volume across all 3 channels as well as higher pricing and the benefit from continued cost reduction initiatives.

好的。接下來，我們來看第9張投影片，依部門劃分，展望未來。我們預期三大業務部門的銷售額和獲利都將持續有機成長。首先是柯林斯，我們預計全年銷售額（調整後和有機成長）都將實現中高個位數成長，這主要得益於寬體和窄體商用飛機原廠配套生產的成長以及商用售後市場的持續成長。柯林斯的軍用銷售額預計全年將實現中低個位數成長。至於柯林斯的調整後營業利潤，我們預計將比去年增加6.5億美元至7.25億美元。這主要得益於三大通路銷售的提升、價格的上漲以及持續的成本削減措施帶來的收益。

Turning to Pratt & Whitney, we expect full year sales to be up low double digits on an adjusted and organic basis versus prior year, driven by higher OE deliveries in both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses, as well as continued growth in shop visits across legacy large commercial engines, GTF and Pratt Canada.

談到普惠公司，我們預計全年銷售額在調整後和有機基礎上將比上年實現低兩位數增長，這得益於普惠大型商用發動機和普惠加拿大業務的原始設備交付量增加，以及傳統大型商用發動機、GTF 和普惠加拿大的維修到訪量持續增長。

Military sales at Pratt are expected to be up mid-single digits driven by higher F135 sustainment volume as heavy overhauls continue to ramp. As a result, we expect Pratt's adjusted operating profit to grow between $400 million and $475 million versus last year, primarily on commercial aftermarket drop-through and military growth, which will be partially offset by higher large commercial OE deliveries.

受F135維護量增加以及大修量持續增加的推動，普惠的軍用銷售額預計將實現中等個位數成長。因此，我們預期普惠的調整後營業利潤將較去年增長4億至4.75億美元，主要得益於商用售後市場訂單下降和軍用業務的增長，但大型商用原廠設備交付量的增加將部分抵消這些增長。

And at Raytheon, on an organic basis, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single digits versus 2023 as we deliver our backlog and continue to see supply chain improvement. Adjusted operating profit at Raytheon is expected to be up between $100 million and $200 million versus prior year, driven by drop-through on higher volume and improvement in productivity, which will be partially offset by mix headwinds. Keep in mind, we'll see about $80 million of year-over-year headwind from the divestiture of the cybersecurity business this year.

在雷神公司，我們預計其銷售額將在2023年實現低至中等個位數的有機成長，因為我們正在交付積壓訂單，並持續改善供應鏈。雷神公司的調整後營業利潤預計將較上年增長1億至2億美元，這主要得益於產量增加和生產力提高帶來的利潤下降，但這些因素將被綜合因素帶來的不利因素部分抵消。需要注意的是，今年網路安全業務的剝離將帶來約8,000萬美元的年比不利因素。

And to wrap up our outlook, at the RTX level, higher intercompany activity will increase sales eliminations by about 10% year-over-year, and we've included an outlook for some of the below-the-line items and pension in the webcast appendices.

總結我們的展望，在 RTX 層面，更高的公司間活動將使銷售消除額同比增長約 10%，並且我們在網絡廣播附錄中對一些線下項目和養老金進行了展望。

Finally, let me make a few comments on our 2025 financial commitments. As you know, there have been some significant changes in the macro environment since we first established these long-term targets, impacts ranging from Russian sanctions, elevated inflation issues with labor availability and, of course, the associated disruptions throughout the supply chain. And we've continued to take incremental actions to further reduce costs, realign our business units, increasing pricing and investing in productivity improvements to combat these headwinds.

最後，我想就我們2025年的財務承諾發表一些看法。正如各位所知，自我們首次製定這些長期目標以來，宏觀環境發生了一些重大變化，其影響包括俄羅斯制裁、通貨膨脹加劇、勞動力供應問題，當然還有由此帶來的整個供應鏈中斷。我們一直在採取漸進式措施，進一步降低成本，重組業務部門，提高價格，並投資於生產力提升，以應對這些不利因素。

Other factors underlying our long-term assumptions, however, have been also positive, such as the pace of the commercial aero recovery and demand for our defense products and services. All that said, despite those puts and takes, we continue to expect Collins and Pratt to be within the sales and operating profit 2020 to 2025 growth targets we discussed last year at our Investor Day. However, because of the recent performance at Raytheon, we are recalibrating our outlook for this segment. When taking into account divestitures, we now expect the 2020 to 2025 annual growth rate for adjusted sales to be between 3% and 3.5%. That's down slightly from our previous expectation of 3.5% to 4.5% for the same period, and driven largely by the initiatives we talked about upfront that will take some time to convert over the next couple of years. As you know, demand remains strong, and our robust backlog will continue to support significant top line growth going forward.

然而，構成我們長期預測的其他因素也較為積極，例如商用航空復甦的步伐以及對我們國防產品和服務的需求。儘管如此，儘管存在這些利弊，我們仍然預期柯林斯和普惠的銷售額和營業利潤將達到我們去年投資者日討論的2020年至2025年的成長目標。然而，鑑於雷神公司近期的表現，我們正在重新調整對該部門的展望。考慮到資產剝離的影響，我們目前預計2020年至2025年調整後銷售額的年增率將在3%至3.5%之間。這略低於我們先前預期的同期3.5%至4.5%的成長率，這主要得益於我們先前討論的那些在未來幾年需要一些時間才能轉化為實際成果的舉措。正如各位所知，需求依然強勁，我們強勁的訂單量將持續支撐未來營收的顯著成長。

Similarly, with respect to Raytheon's adjusted operating profit growth, given the continued productivity challenges we described, we now see Raytheon's 2020 to 2025 annual growth rate to be between 1% and 2.5%, which is down from our prior outlook of between 5.5% to 7.5%. As a result of this segment change, we now see the RTX level adjusted sales annual growth rate from 2020 through 2025 to be between 5.5% and 6% on an organic basis. That's down slightly from our prior outlook of between 6% and 7%. And taking into account the adjustment to Raytheon's operating profit outlook, we now see overall RTX adjusted margin expansion to be between 500 and 550 basis points between 2020 and 2025, and that's down from our prior outlook of between 550 and 650 basis points.

同樣，關於雷神公司的調整後營業利潤增長，鑑於我們所描述的持續的生產力挑戰，我們現在預計雷神公司 2020 年至 2025 年的年增長率將在 1% 至 2.5% 之間，低於我們之前預測的 5.5% 至 7.5%。由於此細分市場的變化，我們現在預計 2020 年至 2025 年 RTX 等級調整後的銷售額年有機成長率將在 5.5% 至 6% 之間。這略低於我們先前預測的 6% 至 7%。考慮到對雷神公司營業利潤前景的調整，我們現在預計 2020 年至 2025 年期間 RTX 整體調整後利潤率增幅將在 500 至 550 個基點之間，低於我們先前預測的 550 至 650 個基點。

However, importantly, there is no change to our RTX 2025 free cash flow target of $7.5 billion as we remain confident in the significant cash-generating capability of our businesses, and we are continuing to drive structural cost reduction and working capital improvements as we invest in the business and deliver on our commitment to return $36 billion to $37 billion of capital to shareowners from the date of the merger through '25.

然而，重要的是，我們的 RTX 2025 自由現金流目標 75 億美元沒有變化，因為我們仍然對我們業務的巨大現金創造能力充滿信心，並且我們將繼續推動結構性成本削減和營運資本改善，因為我們對業務進行投資並履行我們的承諾，即從合併之日起到 25 年向股東返還 360 億至 370 億美元的資本。

So with that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

因此，我將把它交還給格雷格來完成這件事。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. I'm on Slide 10. Let me just wrap this up. I know we've covered a lot of ground today, but there's some key takeaways that everybody should focus on here. Obviously, 2023 was a challenging year. The earnings performance of our Raytheon business obviously was disappointing, as was the Pratt powder metal issue. But importantly, demand remains strong across both of our commercial and defense markets. 11% organic growth in 2023 is just the beginning. With the strength of our $196 billion backlog, we're confident that we'll continue to see strong organic sales and earnings growth along with accelerated free cash flow generation over the coming years. I believe we have the best-positioned A&D portfolio, with industry-leading franchises and robust demand for our products and technologies. This positions us well for the future.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。我現在講到第10張投影片。讓我總結一下。我知道我們今天已經討論了很多內容，但有一些關鍵點大家應該要注意一下。顯然，2023年是充滿挑戰的一年。我們雷神業務的獲利表現顯然令人失望，普拉特粉末金屬問題也令人失望。但重要的是，我們商用和國防市場的需求依然強勁。 2023年11%的有機成長只是個開始。憑藉我們1960億美元訂單的強勁增長，我們有信心在未來幾年繼續保持強勁的有機銷售額和盈利增長，以及自由現金流的加速增長。我相信我們擁有最佳的航空航太與國防產品組合，包括業界領先的特許經營權以及對我們產品和技術的強勁需求。這為我們未來的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

Secondly, we're intensely focused on execution to support our customers and to drive operational performance improvement. We're clearly going to face challenges this year with the continued ramp of the supply chain and the impact of higher costs. But everyone at RTX is working tirelessly to overcome these obstacles and ensure that we deliver on our commitments.

其次，我們高度重視執行力，以支持我們的客戶並推動營運績效的提升。今年，我們顯然將面臨挑戰，因為供應鏈規模持續擴張，成本上漲的影響也隨之而來。但RTX的全體員工都在不懈地努力，克服這些障礙，確保我們兌現承諾。

Lastly, we're staying disciplined and managing the business to continue investing in differentiated technologies and innovation, strengthening our balance sheet, all while continuing to return significant capital to our shareowners.

最後，我們將保持紀律並管理業務，繼續投資於差異化技術和創新，加強我們的資產負債表，同時繼續向股東返還大量資本。

I want to close again by thanking all of the RTX employees who have been working diligently every single day over the last year to deliver on our mission to create a safer, more connected world.

最後，我要再次感謝所有 RTX 員工，他們在過去一年裡每天都勤奮工作，履行我們的使命，創造一個更安全、更互聯的世界。

With that, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

好了，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Chris, inevitably your first question on the GTF situation. It does sound like some things have moved since your update in October. And I think you mentioned that the scheduling of the AOGs looks like it's going to be a slightly different profile and also there could be a related cash impact to that. So I was wondering if you could give us some more color on that development.

克里斯，您第一個問題不可避免地與GTF的情況有關。聽起來自從您10月份的更新以來，有些事情確實發生了變化。我記得您提到AOG的安排看起來會略有不同，而且這可能會對現金產生影響。所以，我想您能否詳細介紹一下這方面的進展。

Yes, you bet, Rob. So we did say here this morning that we do expect the peak to continue to be here in Q1 in terms of AOGs and then trend downward thereafter. Again, we think that peak is going to come down a bit since our initial assessment because really 2 reasons. One, the timing of the AD has shifted a bit to the right. And then two, customers took some proactive fleet planning and decided to, in some cases, accelerate some of their removals as they were doing their fleet planning for the year. They were pairing engines and doing all those things to make them more efficient. So again, peak here in Q1, trend downward after that, and then it will be a -- more of a steady state as we talked about in our October and September guides on the matter.

是的，羅布，沒錯。我們今天早上確實說過，我們預計AOG數量在第一季會繼續保持峰值，之後呈下降趨勢。同樣，我們認為峰值會比我們最初的評估略有下降，原因有二。第一，AD的時間稍微向右移動。第二，客戶採取了一些積極的機隊規劃，在某些情況下，在進行年度機隊規劃時，決定加快一些設備的拆除速度。他們配對發動機，並採取了所有這些措施來提高效率。所以，第一季再次達到峰值，之後呈現下降趨勢，然後會達到一個更穩定的狀態，就像我們在10月和9月的指南中討論的那樣。

You mentioned a little bit on cash being pushed out. Again, Rob, that was the dynamic times we're going through and having discussions with our customers on special support. We've made some progress on special support. I think we've talked about that upfront. We've signed several agreements with our customers, some important customers who have large fleets. But the timing of that cash just simply moved out from the second half of '23 into '24. Same total aggregate amount of [6 to 7] just the timing moved a little bit to the right for the reasons I talked about.

您提到了一些現金流出的問題。 Rob，再說一次，我們正在經歷一個動盪的時期，我們正在與客戶討論特殊支援。我們在特殊支持方面取得了一些進展。我想我們已經提前討論過了。我們已經與客戶簽署了幾項協議，其中一些是擁有大型車隊的重要客戶。但這些現金流出的時間只是從2023年下半年延後到了2024年。總金額（6到7）保持不變，只是時間略微提前了一些，原因我已經提到了。

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自考恩的 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So your cash flow hit from the powder metal issue is $300 million higher than you said. Can you tell us how big was the impact in '23? And are we still going to be at $3 billion, and therefore, there's a plus of $300 million pickup in '25?

是的。所以，粉末金屬問題對你們現金流的衝擊比你說的還要大3億美元。能告訴我們2023年的影響力有多大嗎？我們還會維持30億美元的水準嗎？因此，2025年會有3億美元的額外收入嗎？

Cai, it's Neil. Yes, I'll take that one. So as Chris was just talking about, when we closed out '23, for a variety of reasons, the cash flows shifted to the right. So the impact in '23 for powder metal related disbursements was essentially 0. So we moved about half of that into 2024. That's the $1.3 billion that you're seeing, still holding $1.5 billion in our '25 outlook, and then we see the rest spilling into early 2026. And so we'll continue to work, obviously, the agreements with our customers, and that will drive the ultimate timing of the payments, but you can see our assumptions that we've laid out there.

蔡，我是尼爾。是的，我接這個。正如克里斯剛才提到的，當我們結束2023財年時，由於各種原因，現金流向右移動了。因此，2023年對粉末金屬相關支出的影響基本上為零。所以我們將其中大約一半的支出轉移到了2024年。這就是您看到的13億美元，在我們2025年的展望中仍然有15億美元，然後我們看到剩餘的支出將延續到2026年初。因此，我們顯然會繼續與客戶合作，這將決定最終的付款時間，但您可以看到我們之前列出的假設。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I can't help but compare, GE just reported this morning, and they're talking about margins being flattish in aerospace based on OE mix and LEAP services mix. So just looking at Pratt, can you talk about the dynamics there given GTF volumes are growing, early GTF shop visits gotten higher? So what drives margins 100 basis points higher? Like what's embedded into the guide? Neil, you gave great color on the revenue assumptions. Can you give some assumptions on maybe the aftermarket specifics on the margins as well as the military overall is increasing, is that beneficial?

我忍不住要比較一下。通用電氣今天早上剛發布報告，他們表示，基於原廠配套業務組合和LEAP服務組合，航空航太業務的利潤率持平。那麼，僅就普惠而言，鑑於GTF引擎的銷售成長以及早期GTF引擎的進廠次數增加，您能否談談普惠的動態？那麼，是什麼推動利潤率成長了100個基點？例如指南中提到的內容？尼爾，您對收入假設進行了非常詳細的闡述。您能否就售後市場的具體情況以及軍用引擎整體利潤率的成長給出一些假設？這是否有益？

Sure. Thanks, Sheila. Let me share a couple of other details that we didn't get into in the prepared remarks. So we did talk about the overall sales at Pratt being up in the low double-digit range, $400 million to $475 million of operating profit. The aftermarket sales are going to be up sort of low teens. So the drop-through on the aftermarket is going to be the principal driver of the year-over-year profit increase. And we talked a lot about expanding the margins on our -- both our legacy and GTF aftermarket as we increase the volumes there. And so some of that will start to show up in '24, and that's a driver of drop-through.

當然。謝謝，希拉。讓我分享一些我們在準備好的發言中沒有提到的其他細節。我們確實談到了普惠的整體銷售額成長了兩位數左右，營業利潤達到了4億到4.75億美元。售後市場的銷售額將成長10%左右。因此，售後市場的下降將成為利潤年增的主要驅動力。我們也多次談到如何提高我們的利潤率——包括傳統引擎和GTF引擎售後市場的利潤率，因為這些市場的銷量都在增加。因此，部分利潤率將在2024年開始顯現，這也是利潤率下降的一個驅動力。

On the OE side, we think the sales are going to be up in the mid-teens range. The good news there, as we look at engine productions, which you can think about that as up about 20%, we'll see about a headwind of maybe $125 million associated with that higher volume. So we're getting much better absorption as the volumes return back to levels that we had seen pre-pandemic and that we've been capacitized to. So I think that's another place that we're going to get some margin expansion.

在原廠配套方面，我們認為銷售額將成長15%左右。好消息是，就引擎產量而言，你可以認為其增長了約20%，但伴隨產量增長，我們預計可能面臨約1.25億美元的逆風。因此，隨著產量恢復到疫情前的水平，以及我們已充分調配產能，我們的吸收能力將大幅提升。因此，我認為這也是我們利潤率將有所提升的另一個領域。

And then again, I'm not sure we got into this, but military will be up in the mid-single-digit range. I'd say, again, we had 5% growth on the top line there. And of course, that comes with good drop-through too as we get into 2024. So that's the Pratt story as we look into '24, just a little more color there.

再說一次，我不確定我們是否真的深入探討這個問題，但軍工業務的成長幅度應該在個位數左右。我想說的是，我們的營收成長了5%。當然，到2024年，這也會伴隨著不錯的下降。以上就是普拉特在2024年的故事，我們再來回顧一下。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

I was wondering maybe, Neil, if you can comment on the offset to the lower implied earnings drop-through from the '25 guidance. What was the offset to allow you to maintain the cash flow there? And maybe for Chris, what, by the end of say, '24, would you have achieved in terms of incorporation of full life parts into the fleet just as a metric, maybe we can sort of monitor by?

尼爾，我想知道您能否評論一下，2025年指引中隱含獲利下降幅度的抵銷情況。抵銷措施是什麼，才能讓您維持現金流？克里斯，您能否問一下，比如說，到2024年年底，您在將全壽命部件納入車隊方面取得了什麼成就，這可以作為一項指標，或許我們可以以此為依據進行監控？

Thanks, Myles, Good morning. Let me start. Let me maybe start to frame the answer to that question with a little bit of an updated walk between '23 and '25 on free cash flow to get to the $7.5 billion. And then I'll talk about what obviously offset the reduction in the profit as part of that. So as we look from '23 of $5.5 billion, that $2 billion increase is going to come principally from what I would call operational growth, about $4.8 billion, $2.9 billion of which is going to come from the pre-tax segment operating profit, and you pointed out that, that will be lower than our prior guide, and that's around the midpoint.

謝謝，Myles，早安。我先來回答這個問題。我先來大致介紹一下2023年至2025年自由現金流達到75億美元後的情況。然後我會談談哪些因素顯然抵銷了利潤的減少。從2023年的55億美元來看，這20億美元的成長主要來自我所謂的營運成長，約48億美元，其中29億美元將來自稅前部門營運利潤。正如您所指出的，這將低於我們先前的指引，大約在中間值左右。

The remaining growth is going to come from working capital improvement, about $2.2 billion, about half of which we will deal with here in '24 as we look to hold our inventory flat. So our '23 headwind operationally was about $1 billion -- $600 million, rather. So we're looking year-over-year to improve that. And then we'll have about a half of -- I'm sorry, $400 million of CapEx between '23 and '25. So that will be a headwind. And then I just talked about the $1.5 billion powder metal impact and about $1 billion headwind that's split pretty evenly between interest and improvement in taxes. And then, finally, a few hundred million dollars of pension headwind. All of that should get you to $7.5 billion.

剩餘的成長將來自營運資本改善，約 22 億美元，其中約一半將在 2024 年處理，因為我們希望保持庫存穩定。因此，我們 2023 年的營運逆風約為 10 億美元，確切地說是 6 億美元。因此，我們希望逐年改善這一狀況。然後，我們將有大約一半——抱歉，在 2023 年至 2025 年期間，資本支出約為 4 億美元。所以這將是一個逆風。然後，我剛才談到了 15 億美元的粉末金屬影響，以及約 10 億美元的逆風，這筆逆風在利息和稅收改善之間分配得相當均等。最後，還有幾億美元的退休金逆風。所有這些應該會使我們的營運成本達到 75 億美元。

So what's changed as we look out to 2025, there's been really 3 things that are different. The first is, we've got about $1 billion net of tax lower operating profit baked into this long-term guide, but that's been offset by about $700 million of improvement in taxes, most notably on the back of improvements in our R&D position as well as a couple of hundred million dollars based on the assumptions we see today with respect to our pension outlays and then a little bit of additional working capital. So those are the key drivers.

那麼，展望2025年，我們究竟發生了什麼事？實際上有三件事有所不同。首先，我們的長期指引中已包含約10億美元的稅後營業利潤下降，但這已被約7億美元的稅收改善所抵消，這主要得益於我們研發實力的提升，以及根據我們目前對養老金支出的假設而增加的幾億美元，此外還有少量額外的營運資本。所以，這些都是關鍵驅動因素。

And I'll talk to you now about the full life incorporation. So as we said upfront, and I think we made this commitment early on in September, October timeframe, full-life powder metal parts in OE, so at our customers' final assembly lines starting this year. So that's a good thing. Keep in mind, the OE engines have the latest build standard. And so when you add in the full life parts to those, you get the maximum time-on-wing to the customers. And also keep in mind, that means that the full-life parts will go into our spare engines, which are going out to lift the fleet again, maximizing the time-on-wing.

現在我要跟大家談談全壽命零件的整合。正如我們之前所說，我們早在9月或10月就做出了這項承諾，從今年開始，我們將在原廠發動機（OE）中，也就是在客戶的最終裝配線上，提供全壽命粉末冶金零件。這是一件好事。請記住，原廠引擎採用的是最新的製造標準。因此，當您將全壽命部件添加到這些部件中時，就能為客戶提供最長的在翼時間。另外，這意味著全壽命部件將用於我們的備用發動機，這些備用發動機將再次用於提昇機隊，從而最大限度地延長在翼時間。

On the MRO side, what we said was we were going to start the incorporation in Q2 of this year. We've actually started that a little bit earlier. We've found opportunities to put full-life parts into MRO, where we think it makes the most sense from a time-on-wing perspective. As we said early on in the year, we're not going to get all of our shop visits with full-life parts. We're going to ramp throughout the year. Where we don't incorporate the full-life parts in the MRO, we're going to continue to obviously inspect those parts with the angle scan inspection that we developed and they will be put back into service until the next inspection interval.

在維護、維修和大修（MRO）方面，我們之前說過要在今年第二季開始整合。實際上，我們開始得更早一些。我們發現了將全壽命零件納入MRO的機會，我們認為從在翼時間的角度來看，這是最合理的。正如我們年初所說，我們不會每次維修都使用全壽命零件。我們將在全年逐步增加全壽命部件的數量。對於沒有將全壽命零件納入MRO的零件，我們將繼續使用我們開發的角度掃描檢測技術對這些零件進行檢查，並在下一個檢查週期之前將它們重新投入使用。

And keep in mind, one of the things that we've been doing is just looking at the build standard and the interval for each of these engines that are coming in. There are opportunities to sort of match up just based on where -- the condition of the engine and where it is and where it flies in terms of the environment, a part that's been inspected that's not at full life, match it up with an engine that's going to be coming in for another reason around that same time. So you're not actually driving an incremental visit.

請記住，我們一直在做的事情之一就是查看每台即將進廠的引擎的製造標準和間隔時間。我們有機會根據引擎的狀況、當前位置和飛行環境進行匹配，將已檢查但未達到使用壽命的部件與大約同一時間因其他原因進廠的引擎進行匹配。因此，我們實際上並非在推動增量式檢查。

So again, that's sort of the algorithm that we're kind of going through each and every day with the Pratt team to sort of maximize our allocation in the full-life parts. But the MRO will be a ramp throughout the year. I think, ultimately, we'll get to roughly the same place that we had assumed we would had we started in Q2, but it will be a ramp throughout the year. And all of that's been factored into our outlook.

所以，這有點像我們每天都在和普拉特團隊一起研究的演算法，目的是最大化我們在全壽命週期元件上的配置。但維護、維修和大修（MRO）的支出將在全年呈上升趨勢。我認為，最終，我們的收入水平將與我們在第二季度開始時的預期大致相同，但全年都會呈現上升趨勢。所有這些都已納入我們的預期。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Chris, on Raytheon, you talked about some of the headwinds. Could you maybe give us a little more color on just where we are in terms of the profile of the fixed-price development programs and whether we're peaking now? And then kind of related to all this, just when should we start to see more of that mix shift from more of the FMS that you kind of talked about where we could see some better pricing long term?

克里斯，關於雷神公司，您談到了一些不利因素。您能否更詳細地介紹一下我們目前固定價格開發項目的概況，以及我們是否已經達到頂峰？然後，與所有這些相關的是，我們什麼時候才能開始看到更多產品組合從您提到的FMS模式轉變，從而實現長期更好的定價？

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Peter. So again, as we talked about the productivity issues at Raytheon, about 70%, as we said up front, were in the fixed price development programs. And I'll characterize some of these, Peter, as, in some cases, these are contracts that we took on that maybe weren't in our core capability suite, and we signed up for requirements and other specifications that are really, really difficult. And so it's taken us some time to continue to work through those.

是的，好的。謝謝，彼得。我們之前討論過雷神公司的生產力問題，大約70%的問題，正如我們之前提到的，都與固定價格開發項目有關。彼得，我會描述其中一些問題，在某些情況下，我們承接的合約可能不在我們的核心能力範圍內，而且我們簽署的要求和其他規範非常非常複雜。所以我們花了一些時間來繼續解決這些問題。

In some cases, what we're doing, Peter, is we're taking subject matter experts across the company and just adding resources to these programs. It adds a little bit of expense, obviously, but I think in the long term, it gets the capability of the customer faster and, ultimately, is better financially for us and for the customer. And then in some cases, on these fixed-price development programs, we're having discussions with customers about either restructuring specifications, or altering the requirements in a way that still get capability that's needed and that's helpful, but we can get to them, frankly, in a shorter period of time and with a better financial profile.

彼得，在某些情況下，我們會在公司範圍內調動相關領域的專家，為這些專案增加資源。這顯然會增加一些成本，但我認為從長遠來看，這樣可以更快地獲得客戶的能力，最終對我們和客戶都有更好的財務狀況。在某些情況下，對於這些固定價格的開發項目，我們會與客戶討論調整規範或修改需求，以確保我們仍然能夠獲得所需且有用的能力，但坦白說，我們可以在更短的時間內以更好的財務狀況獲得這些能力。

So those conversations continue to go. I'll tell you that we got a handful here that we're still going to be powering through in 2024 and see that horizon getting better in the next 12 to 18 months as we go through certain milestones, Peter, and satisfy some contractual requirements. We then get into a different phase of the agreement and feel better about our ability to go and execute.

所以這些對話還在繼續。我可以告訴你，我們目前有一些計劃，我們仍將在2024年繼續努力，並且在未來12到18個月內，隨著我們達成某些里程碑，並滿足一些合約要求，情況會越來越好。然後，我們會進入協議的另一個階段，並且對我們的執行能力更有信心。

Chris, maybe I would add just a couple of the financial points around our assumptions financially going into '24. As you think about the $100 million to $200 million profit increase, the first thing I would say is, in '23, we had about a $240 million headwind associated with these negative productivity as you said, 2/3, 70%, associated with these fixed-price development programs, principally a couple of them. As we look to '24, our assumption is that our absolute value of productivity is 0. So we'll see about a $200 million improvement year-over-year, we'll see about $100 million at the midpoint from volume and a little bit of headwind as the lower margins roll through the backlog in '24. And that's what we've contemplated both in the '24 and the '25 outlook.

克里斯，我想補充幾點關於2024年財務狀況的財務預測。說到1億到2億美元的利潤成長，我首先要說的是，2023年，我們面臨著約2.4億美元的逆風，這與你所說的負生產力有關，其中2/3，也就是70%，主要與幾個固定價格的開發項目有關。展望2024年，我們假設生產力的絕對值為0。因此，我們預計將年增約2億美元，產量中位數約為1億美元，而隨著2024年積壓訂單的減少，利潤率也會有所下降，因此我們面臨一些逆風。這就是我們在2024年和2025年展望中所考慮的。

All of that gets you down to our guide, of course with that $80 million headwind I talked about. And as you kind of look into '25, our productivity assumption is about a $100 million step-up. So again, this business, at one time, generated $300 million, $400 million, $500 million a year of productivity, but we need some time for that to play through to see those kinds of margins. But 2025 would not mark the peak of where we see Raytheon's margin potential.

所有這些，都歸結於我們的指導方針，當然，我之前提到的8000萬美元的逆風也算在內。展望2025年，我們的生產力假設是約1億美元的成長。所以，這項業務曾經一度創造了每年3億、4億、5億美元的生產力，但我們需要一些時間來消化這些，才能看到這樣的利潤率。但2025年並不意味著雷神公司利潤潛力的巔峰。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克。

Neil, I just want to make sure I have the, I guess, the starting point and the implied margin correct in the -- in this new 500 to 550, '20 to '25. So given restatements and the like, so I'm looking at 2020 segment operating margin all in of [8.2%], implying that the '25 is [13.2% to 13.7%]. So is that correct? And then can you just talk a little more about getting there from this '24 guidance? It would seem to either require a pretty nice step-up in the Raytheon defense margin or an acceleration in the incrementals at Pratt & Collins or all of the above.

尼爾，我只是想確保我的起點和隱含利潤率在新的500到550之間，也就是2020年到2025年之間是正確的。考慮到重述等因素，我預計2020年各部門的營業利潤率總計為8.2%，這意味著2025年是13.2%到13.7%。對嗎？然後，您能否再談談如何從2024年的指引中實現這一目標？這似乎要么需要雷神公司國防業務利潤率大幅提升，要么需要普惠柯林斯業務利潤率大幅提升，或者兩者兼而有之。

Thanks, Noah. So as you kind of look at the multiyear outlook here, what we've done at the top end is we've tightened up the range a little bit for the RTX sales and margin. We still see Collins and Pratt being within the ranges we talked about. Frankly, the drivers are all the same that we talked about 6 months ago and the last quarter as well. The aftermarket is going to fuel that. We're going to get better absorption, and we'll see the benefits of lower spending on investments we've been making to drive cost reduction and the benefit of that cost reduction. So if you put all that, that's going to put Pratt and Collins in that range, probably closer towards the middle of the high end of that range. And then we just talked about the Raytheon pieces altogether.

謝謝，諾亞。所以，當你回顧多年的展望時，我們在高端市場所做的就是稍微收緊了RTX的銷售額和利潤率區間。我們仍然認為柯林斯和普拉特的銷售額和利潤率在我們討論的區間內。坦白說，驅動因素與我們6個月前和上個季度討論的一樣。售後市場將推動這一進程。我們的吸收能力將會提升，我們將看到降低投資支出帶來的效益，這些支出是我們一直在努力降低成本，並帶來成本降低所帶來的效益。所以，如果把所有這些因素都考慮進去，普拉特和柯林斯的銷售額將處於這個區間，可能更接近這個區間高端的中段。然後，我們剛才討論了雷神公司的部分。

So I think, at the midpoint, when you take into account the dispositions that we've either completed or have announced, you'll see that our margin assumption at the RTX level is about the same as where we were projecting before these tweaks for the Raytheon recalibration.

因此我認為，在中間點，當您考慮到我們已經完成或已經宣布的處置時，您會發現我們在 RTX 級別的利潤率假設與我們在對雷神公司進行這些調整之前預測的利潤率大致相同。

Okay. And just to make sure I have the -- what you said to Myles correct, in the $5.7 billion of free cash this year and the $7.5 billion next year, each of those assumes about $1 billion of positive change in working capital each year, is that right?

好的。為了確保你對 Myles 所說的正確，今年 57 億美元的自由現金和明年 75 億美元的自由現金，都假設每年營運資本都會有約 10 億美元的正向變化，對嗎？

That's correct. And as you think about from '23 to '24, inventory is going to -- essentially, our plan is to stay flat. That will be about 80% of what generates that year-over-year working capital benefit in '24. And then as you look to '25, we'll see continued improvement in inventory as well as the benefit of customer advances. So we've realized a lot of customer advances over the last couple of years. They will burn down. And then as we see these international orders come back in, you'll see that pick up in the year '25.

沒錯。從2023年到2024年，我們的計畫是庫存基本上持平。這大約佔2024年年比營運資本利得的80%。展望2025年，我們將看到庫存持續改善，以及客戶預付款帶來的收益。過去幾年，我們實現了大量的客戶預付款。這些預付款會逐漸減少。然後，隨著國際訂單的回升，2025年庫存將回升。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的 Doug Harned。

It sounded from what you said, Chris, that you made some good progress on the AOG profile here for the GTF. But when you look at your customer base, you may have some who find that a high number of AOGs could put their financial performance at risk. Whether or not those issues are caused by Pratt, you could easily be targeted for responsibility. You already had the earlier Go First lawsuit. So how do you think about the risk for you with airlines that could be in a stressed financial position and maybe more difficult perhaps than how you might normally compensate a customer?

克里斯，從你所說的來看，你們在GTF飛機的AOG（停飛）問題上取得了一些進展。但看看你們的客戶群，可能會發現一些客戶發現，大量的AOG可能會危及他們的財務表現。無論這些問題是否由普惠公司造成，你們都很容易成為被追究責任的目標。你們之前已經處理過Go First的訴訟。那麼，對於航空公司可能陷入財務困境，甚至可能比你們通常賠償客戶的方式更困難的情況，你們如何看待這些風險呢？

Yes. Thanks, Doug. I mean, first of all, I'll tell you that we are engaging with our customers each and every day to try to figure out how best to support them, whether that's through inductions, whether that's through special support, whether that's through spare engine allocation, whatever it may be. And you're right, Doug, there are some customers out there, 10 to 12, I think as we've talked about before, they're going to be more impacted than others. There are some that are all Pratt fleets, whether it be GTF and V2500.

是的，謝謝，道格。首先，我要告訴你，我們每天都在與客戶溝通，努力找到最佳的支援方式，無論是透過入職培訓、特殊支援、備用引擎分配，還是其他任何方式。道格，你說得對，有些客戶，大概有10到12架，正如我們之前提到的，我認為他們受到的影響會比其他客戶更大。有些客戶全是普惠機隊，無論是GTF還是V2500。

And so, again, working very hard with them to come up with a compensation structure relative to the powder metal AOG situation. That's fair and that can give them a little bit of lift. Obviously, it won't make up for all of the disruption that they're having in their fleet and all of the things that they've got to do to accommodate for these removals. But again, doing the best we can to come up with a fair set of compensation structures to help out during these trying times.

因此，我們再次與他們密切合作，並制定了粉末金屬飛機停飛（AOG）情況的補償方案。這很公平，可以給他們一些幫助。顯然，這無法彌補他們機隊遭受的所有損失，以及他們為應對這些飛機停飛而不得不做的所有事情。但我們會盡力，制定一套公平的補償方案，幫助他們度過這段艱難時期。

And then, of course, communicate with them consistently about what we're seeing in terms of the assumptions that we're talking about here, full-life incorporation, MRO, MRO output, all the things that are going to drive better fleet support for them. So obviously, don't want to be in a position where we're putting our customers in harm's way and where they're going to be very upset with us and want to take action. But I'll tell you, we've got a track record of coming to agreement with our customers on some of the more difficult problems we faced, and I'm confident we're going to be able do it again.

當然，我們會持續與他們溝通，告知他們我們在此討論的假設，包括全生命週期整合、維護、維修和大修 (MRO)、維護、維修和大修 (MRO) 產出，以及所有能夠為他們提供更好機隊支持的因素。顯然，我們不希望客戶陷入危險，讓他們對我們非常不滿並希望採取行動的情況。但我要說的是，我們過去曾與客戶就一些較為棘手的問題達成一致，我相信我們能夠再次做到這一點。

And if I can, are you seeing any improvement in the time, the induction time, to get these engines in the shop as part of this AOG profile?

如果可以的話，您是否看到將這些引擎送入車間作為 AOG 概況的一部分所需的時間、導入時間有任何改善？

Right now, Doug, the wing-to-wing turnaround time remains consistent with what we had talked about previously. I will tell you, and we kind of alluded to this earlier, we are continuing to aggressively pursue with our aftermarket partners. Again, we've got some Tier 1 aftermarket providers as part of the GTF aftermarket network, trying to come up with what I would call light or medium type work scopes that can take the in-shop time down further. Again, trying to maximize for time-on-wing, just depends on the operator, depends on the condition of the engine, but we're aggressively pursuing a number of work scopes that can take the in-shop time down.

道格，目前翼對翼的周轉時間與我們之前討論的一致。我可以告訴你，我們之前也提到過，我們正在繼續積極地與售後市場合作夥伴合作。同樣，我們有一些一級售後市場供應商，作為GTF售後市場網絡的一部分，他們正在努力開發我稱之為輕型或中型的維修範圍，以進一步縮短維修車間時間。同樣，我們試圖最大限度地延長在翼時間，這取決於操作員和引擎的狀況，但我們正在積極地開發一系列可以縮短維修車間時間的維修範圍。

In addition, I think you've heard us talk about this before. We've industrialized a significant number of repairs on the GTF, I want to say about 1,300 in 2023. We've got another significant step-up here in '24, all for trying to obviate the need for new parts when they come in and increase our turnaround times in the shops. Again, a huge area of focus for us here as you might imagine (corrected by company after the call).

此外，我想您之前也聽過我們討論過這個問題。我們已經實現了GTF引擎大量維修的工業化，我想說，到2023年大約會達到1300次。 2024年，我們在這方面又有了一次重大的提升，這一切都是為了努力減少新零件到貨時對零件的需求，並縮短我們在維修廠的周轉時間。如您所想，這也是我們關注的重點領域（電話會議後公司進行了更正）。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯 (David Strauss)。

Wanted to ask what exactly is the bottleneck, Chris, to be able to ramp up production of full-life disks given that I think the powder metal switch occurred a while ago. I guess I'm just kind of confused there why it's not easier to ramp up the production of these full-life disks. And then could you touch on what you're expecting for large commercial engine deliveries in '24, and your confidence in being able to meet Airbus' requirements?

克里斯，我想問一下，鑑於我認為粉末冶金引擎的轉換已經發生一段時間了，提高全壽命盤的產量究竟面臨什麼瓶頸？我有點困惑，為什麼要提高這些全壽命盤的產量不容易？您能否談談您對2024年大型商用引擎交付的預期，以及您對滿足空中巴士要求的信心？

Sure. So as we talked about, David, the powdered metal value stream, we're asking it, both our own shops and our supply chain, to step up significantly here so that we can incorporate into MRO, as we talked about earlier, and in OE. So much more than that value stream clearly had anticipated midyear last year. Again, we feel like we've got pretty adequate forging capacity within our own 4 walls and with the supply chain. But again, we've got to continue to ramp up inspection capacity. We've got to ramp up machining capacity, all critical parts of that value stream.

當然。正如我們之前提到的，David，粉末金屬價值流，我們要求我們自己的工廠和供應鏈都大幅提升，以便能夠將其納入維護、運行（MRO）和原始設備製造商（OE）的流程。這遠遠超出了去年年中該價值流的預期。我們感覺到我們內部和供應鏈的鍛造能力已經相當充足。但同樣，我們必須持續提升檢測能力。我們必須提升加工能力，這些都是這個價值流的關鍵部分。

And I'll tell you, as you ramp up, and we saw this in 2019 as we were ramping and we're ramping up again here, as you take these parts to a volume that our supply chain wasn't necessarily anticipating and that we weren't necessarily anticipating, you've got to continue to double down on the fundamentals, the quality, the yield, the tooling and the maintenance, all the things that are instrumental in enabling that volume jump. So again, I would say we've made solid progress thus far and are generally tracking to where we thought we would be. But again, we've got to continue to step up throughout the year, especially as we want to increase the number of full-life parts we put into MRO.

我告訴你，隨著產量的提升，就像我們在2019年看到的那樣，當時我們正在提升產量，現在我們又在提升產量，當你把這些零件的產量提高到我們供應鏈和我們自己都未必能預料到的水平時，你必須繼續加倍努力，確保基本面、質量、產量、工裝和維護，所有這些都有助於實現產量的增長。所以我想再說一次，到目前為止，我們已經取得了紮實的進展，並且總體上正在朝著我們預期的方向發展。但是，我們必須在全年繼續加大投入，尤其是當我們想要增加投入MRO的全壽命零件數量的時候。

To your question about Airbus, I think, and Neil said it before, up about 20% year-over-year here in '24. And again, we have discussions with Airbus all the time. They understand the fleet condition. They understand where we're ramping on powder metal parts and the like. And so we feel good about our ability to meet the commitment we made to them here in 2024.

關於你提到的空中巴士，我想，尼爾之前也說過，2024年我們的飛機產量年增了約20%。而且，我們一直在與空中巴士溝通。他們了解我們的機隊狀況，也了解我們在粉末冶金零件等方面的產能提升。因此，我們對在2024年兌現對他們的承諾充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

Changing the subject a little bit, everybody seems to be talking about the powder metal thing. In Collins -- I mean the Collins outlook looks really good. Can you give some color around how much of that is being driven by wide-body and interiors, and if you're starting to really see a pickup there, right? Because the one thing that we're all kind of waiting for is the pickup in the wide-body market and that interiors business is generally a good leading indicator of what's going on.

稍微換個話題，好像大家都在討論粉末冶金的事。柯林斯的前景看起來非常好。您能否具體說說，其中有多少是由寬體客機和內裝業務推動的？您是否真的看到這方面的回升？因為我們都在期待寬體客機市場的回暖，而內裝業務通常是未來發展的良好先行指標。

Let me start, Ron, and maybe Chris can add something. Let me give you a couple of details first. On the aftermarket side, at Collins, we expect that to be up high single digits to low double digits, I'd say, 10% or more. On the OE side, mid- to high single digits, and we're going to see, as everyone knows, about 40% incrementals there. And yes, wide-body is going to be a big driver. So as we've seen a lot of narrow-body I'll call it catch-up in growth over the last couple of years, we do expect that to shift to the wide-body.

首先，Ron，也許Chris可以補充一些。我先跟你講幾個細節。在柯林斯售後市場方面，我們預計增幅將在高個位數到低兩位數之間，我估計會達到10%或更多。在原廠飛機方面，增幅將在中到高個位數之間，眾所周知，我們將看到大約40%的增幅。沒錯，寬體飛機將成為一大驅動力。鑑於過去幾年我們看到窄體飛機的大量成長（我稱之為追趕式成長），我們確實預計成長將轉向寬體飛機。

Now keep in mind, on the wide-body OE side for Collins, the margins are a bit thinner there, but it does set us up for good longer-term projections, especially as you get into '25 and '26 and beyond as that comes off warranty and converts to aftermarket.

現在請記住，對於 Collins 來說，在寬體 OE 方面，利潤率稍微薄一些，但它確實為我們提供了良好的長期預測，特別是當你進入 '25 和 '26 及以後，因為它將不再保固並轉換為售後市場。

Around the interior business, I think Steve Timm had said this back in June, that business is growing, but it's nowhere near levels of 2019. And so we don't see that coming back until about 2026. So the good news is there's a lot of runway there, and we are seeing a lot of activity there. So I think that will be a growth driver. But clearly, we're starting to see a bit more of a shift from narrow-body into wide-body as we go into the next couple of years.

關於內裝業務，我記得史蒂夫·蒂姆（Steve Timm）早在六月就說過，業務正在增長，但遠不及2019年的水平。所以我們預計這種情況要到2026年左右才能恢復。好消息是，這方面還有很長的路要走，我們也看到了許多活動。所以我認為這將成為成長動力。但顯然，隨著未來幾年的到來，我們將開始看到從窄體機轉向寬體機的轉變。

Yes. Maybe the only thing I would add to that, Ron, is that Steve and team are very focused on the transformation within interiors. I think there's some opportunity to consolidate sites to continue to remove ERP systems. As you know, there's been an integration that's been going on in that interiors business in particular. So I think there's a lot of good work on continuing to transform the cost footprint in the interiors business. So when that volume continues to come back, it will be at the types of margins that you would expect.

是的。羅恩，我唯一想補充的是，史蒂夫和他的團隊非常注重內飾業務的轉型。我認為有機會整合一些工廠，繼續淘汰ERP系統。如你所知，內裝業務一直在進行整合。所以我認為在持續降低內裝業務成本方面有很多值得借鏡的地方。所以，當業務量持續回升時，利潤率將會達到你預期的水平。

Got it. Got it. And have you guys seen any airlines, any customers yet requesting retrofits and upgrades to interiors on their existing wide-body fleets?

明白了，明白了。你們有沒有看到任何航空公司或客戶要求對現有寬體機隊的內裝進行改裝和升級？

Ron, that's actually an ongoing process. We are in the process of working with a number of airlines as they are going through their retrofit. And keep in mind, that is a 3- to 5-year process to upgrade these things. So we are still finishing out things that we had signed up for back in 2018, 2019. But again, as Neil said, the business is coming back. But given the long cycle nature of these upgrades, you're not going to see a heck of a lot of that in '24, more in '25 and certainly more in '26.

羅恩，這其實是一個持續的過程。我們正在與一些正在進行改造的航空公司合作。請記住，升級這些設施需要3到5年的時間。所以我們仍在完成2018年和2019年簽約的專案。不過，正如尼爾所說，業務正在復甦。但考慮到這些升級的周期較長，2024年不會看到太多這樣的項目，2025年會更多，2026年肯定會更多。

Our final question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Yes. Maybe just following up on Collins and kind of the growth outlook for this year, when we think about how much OE production rates are rising, we think about the strength in the aftermarket. Kind of what's the potential for upside on the top line there? And I guess, how much of a drag is the military business? It's a pretty significant chunk of the portfolio. And given the growth rate in the second half and what you're forecasting overall for '24, it seems like maybe this isn't a business that's really -- the military business that's going to participate in the budget growth and outlay growth that we're seeing now.

是的。或許我只是在跟進柯林斯以及今年的成長前景。當我們考慮原始設備製造商（OE）的生產力成長多少時，我們會考慮售後市場的強勁表現。那麼，售後市場的營收成長潛力有多大？我想，軍工業務的拖累有多大？它在投資組合中佔了相當大的比重。考慮到下半年的成長率以及您對2024年整體的預測，軍工業務似乎不太可能真正參與我們現在看到的預算和支出成長。

Seth, let me start. I wouldn't characterize the defense business within Collins as a drag. I think the defense business in '23 was flat at the top line, and it experienced a lot of the same issues we've been talking about on the Raytheon side in terms of the impacts of inflation, the delays in the supply chain. But as we look to '24, we're going to see, I'd say, healthy growth there, low to mid-single digits as we catch up and the supply chain catches up and we burn down the overdue there. And I think we're really well positioned on a lot of strategic platforms. Remember, we moved businesses from the Raytheon segment into the Collins Mission Systems business to create more synergistic opportunity there. And I think that's really taking hold and there's a lot of good proposal activity there.

塞斯，讓我先說。我不會把柯林斯的國防業務描述成拖累。我認為2023年的國防業務營收持平，而且它經歷了許多我們在雷神公司討論過的同樣的問題，例如通貨膨脹的影響、供應鏈的延誤。但展望2024年，我認為隨著我們迎頭趕上，供應鏈也迎頭趕上，我們能夠解決逾期問題，我們將看到該業務健康增長，增長率將達到低到中等個位數。而且我認為我們在許多戰略平台上都處於非常有利的位置。記住，我們將業務從雷神公司部門轉移到柯林斯任務系統業務，是為了在那裡創造更多的協同機會。我認為這項舉措正在真正發揮作用，那裡有很多不錯的提案活動。

So I think it's a great fit, and it's in the right place in Collins. More broadly, I think just talking about the aftermarket potential at Collins, very strong, but we just put up some significant numbers there with aftermarket up 26% and provisioning up 42% on a full year. So clearly there's been a surge in aftermarket over the last year. And so we're dealing with some very difficult compares.

所以我認為這非常合適，而且在柯林斯的位置也恰到好處。更廣泛地說，我認為柯林斯的售後市場潛力非常強勁，但我們剛剛公佈了一些顯著的數據：全年售後市場成長了26%，撥備成長了42%。顯然，售後市場在過去一年出現了激增。因此，我們面臨著一些非常棘手的比較。

And on the OE side, we'll start to see that growth moderate, but again, still on the back of some really strong 17% growth in '23. So I think Collins is well positioned, and I think the defense business is a good fit and it's in the right place there for it right now.

在OE方面，我們將開始看到成長放緩，但仍得益於2023年17%的強勁成長。所以我認為柯林斯的定位很好，國防業務非常適合，而且目前正處於合適的時機。

Again, Seth, I'll just add much like the interiors, I think, Steve and team have a plan to continue to drive structural cost reduction within Collins to help margin expansion. We've talked about moving engineering presence to best cost locations by 2025 by a significant number, same with manufacturing hours. So a lot of center of excellence activity going on within Collins that'll continue to help with their cost footprint and support the margin expansion.

塞思，我再補充一下，就像內飾一樣，我想史蒂夫和他的團隊有一個計劃，繼續推動柯林斯內部的結構性成本削減，以幫助提高利潤率。我們已經討論到2025年將工程部門大幅遷移到成本最低的地區，製造工時也是如此。因此，柯林斯內部正在進行的大量卓越中心活動將繼續幫助他們降低成本，並支持利潤率的提高。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for calling in and listening today. As always, Jennifer and her Investor Relations team will be available all day to answer whatever further questions you might have. So with that, thank you, and have a wonderful day. Take care.

好的。感謝大家今天的來電和收聽。 Jennifer 和她的投資者關係團隊將一如既往地全天為您解答任何疑問。謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。保重。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。