雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 RTX 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫拉蒂夫，今天我將擔任您的接線生。 （操作員說明）

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being webcast live on the Internet and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www.rtx.com.

今天參加電話會議的是董事長兼執行長 Greg Hayes； Chris Calio，總裁兼營運長；尼爾‧米切爾，財務長；珍妮佛·里德（Jennifer Reed），投資者關係副總裁。此次電話會議正在網路上進行網路直播，並且可以從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX's SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和管理層通常將其稱為其他重要項目的淨非經常性和/或重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述均面臨風險和不確定性。 RTX 向 SEC 提交的文件，包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。 （操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

這樣，我會將電話轉給海耶斯先生。

All right. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We've got a lot to cover today, but let me start with the news we shared last month, which I'm sure you all saw. Effective on May 2, the date of our Annual Shareholders Meeting, Chris Calio will become the new CEO of RTX. Chris' appointment is the result of a very deliberate and thoughtful succession planning process conducted by our Board of Directors over the past 3 years. While I'm going to remain in my role as Executive Chairman, Chris will be taking the reins of the company.

好的。謝謝大家，大家早安。今天我們有很多內容要講，但讓我從上個月分享的新聞開始，我相信你們都看到了。 Chris Calio 將成為 RTX 新任首席執行官，自 5 月 2 日（年度股東大會召開之日）起生效。克里斯的任命是我們董事會在過去三年中進行的非常審慎和深思熟慮的繼任計劃流程的結果。雖然我將繼續擔任執行董事長，但克里斯將接手公司。

As you all know, I've worked with Chris for many years, and I can't think of a better person to take on this role. Chris has a deep understanding of our industry, our customers' needs and our operation, and most importantly, he's an outstanding leader. And I'd like to say that I'm honored to have led this organization for almost the last 10 years. But most importantly, I'd like to thank each and every employee who has supported our mission over the last decade. We would not have been able to accomplish all we did, if not for you. Going forward, I have the utmost confidence in Chris' ability to lead this great company and continue to drive performance and value creation for all of our stakeholders for years to come.

眾所周知，我與克里斯共事多年，我想不出比他更好的人選來擔任這個角色。克里斯對我們的行業、客戶的需求和我們的營運有著深刻的了解，最重要的是，他是一位傑出的領導者。我想說，我很榮幸能夠在過去 10 年裡領導這個組織。但最重要的是，我要感謝過去十年支持我們使命的每一位員工。如果沒有您，我們就不可能完成我們所做的一切。展望未來，我對克里斯領導這家偉大公司並在未來幾年繼續為所有利益相關者推動績效和價值創造的能力充滿信心。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to take you through an update on our end markets and the year. Chris?

接下來，讓我把它交給克里斯，讓他帶您了解我們的終端市場和今年的最新情況。克里斯？

Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you, Greg. I'd like to start by thanking all RTX employees for their contributions last year, and I want to share how humbled I am that our Board has given me the opportunity to lead this world-class team. As we move forward, our focus will continue to be on delivering our record backlog, accelerating innovation and driving operational performance across the portfolio to meet our customer and shareholder expectations.

好吧，大家早安，謝謝你，格雷格。首先，我要感謝所有 RTX 員工去年所做的貢獻，並且我想分享一下，我對董事會給予我領導這個世界一流團隊的機會感到多麼謙卑。隨著我們的前進，我們的重點將繼續是交付創紀錄的積壓訂單、加速創新並推動整個產品組合的營運績效，以滿足客戶和股東的期望。

I'd also like to acknowledge a couple of other leadership changes we've recently announced. First, I'd like to thank Wes Kremer for his significant contributions to the company as he transitions into retirement. Over the course of his 20-year career here, Wes has led the development of some of Raytheon's most successful programs, including LTAMDS, Standard Missile-3 and a range of strategic missile defense systems that defend the homeland and our allies. Wes has also played a critical role in restructuring the Raytheon business unit to better align with the needs of our customers.

我還要感謝我們最近宣布的其他幾項領導層變動。首先，我要感謝 Wes Kremer 在退休期間為公司做出的重大貢獻。在他 20 年的職業生涯中，韋斯領導了雷神公司一些最成功項目的開發，包括 LTAMDS、Standard Missile-3 以及一系列保衛祖國和盟友的戰略飛彈防禦系統。韋斯還在重組雷神公司業務部門以更好地滿足客戶需求方面發揮了關鍵作用。

With Wes' retirement, Phil Jasper has been appointed as President of the Raytheon business. Phil brings with him over 30 years of experience in aerospace and defense and most recently led the Collins Mission Systems business, where he played a critical role in integrating RTX's connected battle solutions this past year. Phil's deep knowledge of our military customers and their priorities, his experience leading many business transformation initiatives throughout his career positions him well to lead Raytheon.

隨著韋斯的退休，菲爾·賈斯珀被任命為雷神公司業務總裁。 Phil 在航空航太和國防領域擁有 30 多年的經驗，最近領導了柯林斯任務系統業務，去年在整合 RTX 的聯網戰鬥解決方案方面發揮了關鍵作用。菲爾對我們的軍事客戶及其優先事項有著深入的了解，他在整個職業生涯中領導許多業務轉型計劃的經驗使他能夠很好地領導雷神公司。

Now before I cover the highlights of the year, let me get into an update on our end markets. First and foremost, demand for our products and services in both commercial aerospace and defense has never been stronger. Air travel has returned to, and in some cases, surpassed prepandemic levels, and the global threat environment is driving unprecedented demand, especially in air defense systems.

現在，在介紹今年的亮點之前，讓我先介紹一下我們終端市場的最新情況。首先，商業航空航太和國防領域對我們產品和服務的需求從未如此強勁。航空旅行已經恢復到，在某些情況下超過了疫情前的水平，全球威脅環境正在推動前所未有的需求，特別是在防空系統方面。

Starting with commercial aero, we saw solid air traffic growth this past year, with global revenue passenger miles back to 2019 levels and domestic air travel now 5% above 2019 levels as we exited the year. The strong recovery has helped drive significant aftermarket demand for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft, with growth expected to continue into 2024.

從商業航空開始，我們在過去的一年看到了航空運輸量的穩健增長，全球收入乘客里程回到了 2019 年的水平，國內航空旅行在今年結束時比 2019 年的水平高出了 5%。強勁的復甦推動了寬體和窄體飛機售後市場的巨大需求，預計成長將持續到 2024 年。

On the defense side, increases in global spending have led to a defense backlog, which is now at $78 billion, up $9 billion from a year ago. Just this past quarter, we received a GEM-T order with $2.8 billion from NATO, which is the largest GEM-T contract recorded in Raytheon history. Domestically, we are pleased that a bipartisan funding agreement has been reached, supporting increased defense spending and expect Congress will complete their work on the full year '24 Appropriations Bill in the next several weeks.

在國防方面，全球支出的增加導致國防積壓，目前已達 780 億美元，比一年前增加了 90 億美元。就在上個季度，我們收到了來自北約的價值 28 億美元的 GEM-T 訂單，這是雷神公司歷史上最大的 GEM-T 合約。在國內，我們很高興兩黨達成了一項資助協議，支持增加國防開支，並預計國會將在未來幾週內完成《24 年撥款法案》的工作。

With that, let me turn to Slide 2, provide an update on 2023, and I'll start with some of the highlights. We delivered $74.3 billion in adjusted sales for the full year, up 11% organically, and adjusted EPS of $5.06 was up 6% year-over-year, both of which were ahead of our outlook. And more importantly, we ended the year with $5.5 billion in free cash flow, which also exceeded our commitment. On a full year basis, commercial aftermarket was up 23%, commercial OE was up 20% and defense was up 4%.

接下來，讓我轉向投影片 2，提供 2023 年的最新情況，我將從一些亮點開始。我們全年調整後銷售額為 743 億美元，有機成長 11%，調整後每股收益為 5.06 美元，年增 6%，這兩項指標均超出我們的預期。更重要的是，我們年底的自由現金流達到了 55 億美元，這也超出了我們的承諾。全年來看，商業售後市場成長了 23%，商業 OE 成長了 20%，國防成長了 4%。

On the capital allocation front, we returned over $16 billion of capital to shareowners for the year, including $12.9 billion of share repurchases, supported by our $10 billion ASR and $3.2 billion in dividends. We're beginning the process of deleveraging this year to ensure we maintain a strong balance sheet, which will be in part supported by the closure of our previously announced divestitures.

在資本配置方面，我們在 100 億美元的 ASR 和 32 億美元的股息的支持下，今年向股東返還了超過 160 億美元的資本，其中包括 129 億美元的股票回購。我們今年開始去槓桿化進程，以確保維持強勁的資產負債表，這將在一定程度上得到我們先前宣布的資產剝離的結束的支持。

At the same time, we remain focused on ensuring that business continues to be positioned to achieve sustained growth. In 2023, we spent almost $10 billion in CapEx in company and customer-funded R&D, while capturing $95 billion in new bookings, resulting in company-wide backlog growth of 12% and a book-to-bill of 1.28, ending the year with a record RTX backlog of $196 billion.

同時，我們仍然致力於確保業務繼續實現持續成長。 2023 年，我們在公司和客戶資助的研發上花費了近100 億美元的資本支出，同時獲得了950 億美元的新訂單，導致全公司的積壓訂單增長了12%，訂單出貨比為1.28，年底時RTX 積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 1,960 億美元。

So while there's a lot of positive momentum in our markets and across the business, we have 2 matters we've been heavily focused on, Pratt's powder metal situation and Raytheon's margins. So let me hit these 2 head on, and I'll start with powdered metal. Our top priority continues to be executed on our fleet management plans, and both the financial and operational outlook remain consistent with our call last October.

因此，雖然我們的市場和整個業務有很多積極的勢頭，但我們有兩個重點關注的問題，普拉特的粉末金屬狀況和雷神公司的利潤率。那麼讓我來正面攻擊這兩個，我將從粉末金屬開始。我們的首要任務仍然是執行我們的車隊管理計劃，財務和營運前景與我們去年 10 月的預測保持一致。

While we are still in the early stages, let me provide a few more details on the progress we've made to date. As you saw, Pratt has issued the necessary service bulletins and service instructions to operators, which are entirely consistent with our underlying financial and operational assumptions that we previously communicated. The FAA is in the process of drafting the corresponding airworthiness directives, which we expect to be issued within the next month or so. And just as a reminder, it is common practice for a fleet management plan to be communicated through multiple service bulletins and airworthiness directives to address different engine models, compliance times or components and sections of the engine, continue to conduct ultrasonic angle scan inspections on powder metal parts and our findings remain consistent with our prior analysis and assumptions.

雖然我們仍處於早期階段，但讓我提供一些有關我們迄今為止所取得的進展的更多細節。正如您所看到的，普拉特已向營運商發布了必要的服務公告和服務說明，這與我們先前傳達的基本財務和營運假設完全一致。美國聯邦航空局正在起草相應的適航指令，預計下個月左右發布。提醒一下，機隊管理計畫的常見做法是透過多個服務公告和適航指令進行溝通，以解決不同的引擎型號、合規時間或引擎的部件和部分，繼續對粉末進行超音波角度掃描檢查金屬零件和我們的發現與我們先前的分析和假設保持一致。

Let me now turn to our industrial plans. You'll recall our focus is on ramping production of HPT and HPC disks to support both OE and MRO deliveries. We've made solid progress here as well, continue to secure the necessary machining and inspection capacity for increased disproduction. Today, all OE GTF engines being delivered to our customers' final assembly line contain disks produced from powdered metal manufactured after Q3 2021 and have full certified lives.

現在讓我談談我們的工業計劃。您可能還記得我們的重點是提高 HPT 和 HPC 磁碟的產量，以支援 OE 和 MRO 交付。我們在這方面也取得了堅實的進展，繼續確保必要的加工和檢驗能力以增加產量。如今，交付給客戶總裝線的所有 OE GTF 引擎都包含由 2021 年第三季之後製造的粉末金屬製成的盤，並且具有完整的認證壽命。

On the GTF MRO front, we have begun installing full-life disks during certain shop visits, and the number of engines receiving full-life disks in MRO will increase throughout the year as we continue to ramp up production of these parts. Our estimated wing-to-wing turnaround time remains consistent with our prior guidance. Pratt grew GTF MRO by almost 30% year-over-year in 2023, while also making investments in additional shops, test cell capacity and repair capability to support even more growth in 2024.

在 GTF MRO 方面，我們已開始在某些車間訪問期間安裝全壽命盤，並且隨著我們繼續提高這些零件的產量，全年在 MRO 中接收全壽命盤的發動機數量將會增加。我們估計的機翼週轉時間與我們先前的指導保持一致。到 2023 年，普拉特的 GTF MRO 年增近 30%，同時也對更多車間、測試單元產能和維修能力進行投資，以支持 2024 年的進一步成長。

With respect to the number of AOGs, we continue to expect the roughly 350 on average that we previously guided. However, we will likely see a lower peak level than previously anticipated due to the timing of the AD issuance and proactive fleet management by our customers. Additionally, our conversations with customers continue to progress. To date, we have finalized several customer support agreements, and these have been in line with the assumptions we outlined last year.

至於 AOG 的數量，我們仍然預計我們之前指導的平均值約為 350 個。然而，由於 AD 發布的時間和客戶主動進行的車隊管理，我們可能會看到比之前預期更低的峰值水平。此外，我們與客戶的對話也不斷取得進展。迄今為止，我們已經敲定了幾項客戶支援協議，這些協議與我們去年概述的假設一致。

And lastly, just a comment on the remaining Pratt & Whitney fleets. Both the financial and operational outlook remain consistent with what we discussed on our prior call. We continue to execute on those plans.

最後，僅對剩餘的普惠機隊進行評論。財務和營運前景與我們先前電話會議中討論的內容保持一致。我們將繼續執行這些計劃。

I'll now shift to Raytheon's performance. We continue to experience profitability challenges driven by productivity headwinds within the business, primarily attributable to legacy fixed-price development programs that we have previously discussed as well as continued supply chain and operational headwinds. Let me start by providing some color around our productivity issues, and it's important to note that we are, in fact, achieving productivity in several parts of Raytheon's business, in particular, on certain legacy product families where we've received successive awards that are creating scale in our factories and in our supply chain. For example, we increased GEM-T output by 50% year-over-year by using our CORE system to refine work instructions, increased test equipment uptime and reduce product cycle time, all without additional capital or manpower.

現在我將轉向雷神公司的表現。我們繼續面臨由業務內部生產力不利因素驅動的獲利能力挑戰，這主要歸因於我們之前討論過的傳統固定價格開發計劃以及持續的供應鏈和營運不利因素。首先讓我對我們的生產力問題進行一些闡述，值得注意的是，事實上，我們正​​在雷神公司業務的多個部分實現生產力，特別是在某些傳統產品系列上，我們連續獲得了這些獎項，這些獎項包括：在我們的工廠和供應鏈中創造規模。例如，透過使用我們的 CORE 系統完善工作指令、增加測試設備正常運作時間並縮短產品週期時間，我們將 GEM-T 產量同比增加了 50%，所有這些都無需額外的資本或人力。

We also recognized productivity gains when we successfully retired technical and schedule risks on our contracts, which is more frequent in our programs in the production phase. However, those gains have been overcome by unfavorable productivity in other areas. In 2023, about 70% of this headwind came from challenges on fixed price development programs, and the remaining 30% was driven by unfavorable material costs as well as supplier delinquencies, which have had the effect of extending the period of performance in several cases.

當我們成功消除合約中的技術和進度風險時，我們也認識到生產力的提高，這在我們的生產階段的專案中更為常見。然而，這些成果已被其他領域的不利生產力所抵消。 2023 年，約 70% 的逆風來自固定價格開發計畫的挑戰，其餘 30% 是由不利的材料成本以及供應商拖欠造成的，這在一些情況下產生了延長履約期限的影響。

So what are we doing about it? Our plan to stabilize the current performance and deliver profitable growth consists of a few elements. One, we expect improvement in our fixed price development programs as we satisfy certain technical and programmatic milestones. We will also be more selective and disciplined about the work we pursue moving forward. Two, we are making modifications in our approach to winning new work. We continue to ensure that our new contracts and additional contractual lots have better protection from supplier inflation. This will take some time to play through, but we expect this will help us improve our margin profile.

那我們正在做什麼呢？我們穩定目前業績並實現獲利成長的計劃由幾個要素組成。第一，隨著我們滿足某些技術和計劃里程碑，我們預計我們的固定價格開發計劃將得到改善。我們也將對今後追求的工作更加挑剔和嚴格。第二，我們正在改變贏得新作品的方法。我們繼續確保我們的新合約和額外合約批次能夠更好地免受供應商通膨的影響。這需要一些時間來完成，但我們預計這將有助於我們改善利潤狀況。

Three, we continue to drive improved supply chain performance and material flow. Overall, our material receipts were up 8% in 2023, and we need to continue on that trajectory here in 2024. Fourth, we continue to take indirect cost actions that will help us avoid some of the headwinds we experienced in 2022 and '23. For instance, we optimized Raytheon's realigned business structure by further consolidating and streamlining several of our sub-business units earlier this month. This will reduce indirect costs and overhead and better position the business for profitable growth.

第三，我們持續推動供應鏈績效和物流的改善。總體而言，我們的材料收入在2023 年增長了8%，我們需要在2024 年繼續保持這一軌跡。第四，我們繼續採取間接成本行動，這將幫助我們避免在2022 年和23 年經歷的一些不利因素。例如，本月初，我們透過進一步整合和精簡幾個子業務部門來優化雷神公司重新調整的業務結構。這將減少間接成本和管理費用，並更好地定位業務以實現獲利成長。

And lastly, there will be some tailwind that comes from a mix shift in our business as development programs and technical refreshes move into production and the mix of our sales shifts more towards FMS and DCS. So there's obviously a lot of work to do. But this business has a strong foundation and it starts with its product portfolio. As I said earlier, the demand for Raytheon's products is incredibly strong, and I'm confident that Phil and the team are focused on addressing these challenges and delivering this record backlog at the margins that we need.

最後，隨著開發計劃和技術更新投入生產，以及我們的銷售組合更多地轉向 FMS 和 DCS，我們業務的混合轉變將帶來一些推動力。所以顯然還有很多工作要做。但這項業務擁有堅實的基礎，並始於其產品組合。正如我之前所說，對雷神公司產品的需求非常強勁，我相信菲爾和團隊將專注於應對這些挑戰，並以我們需要的利潤交付創紀錄的積壓訂單。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil to take you through our fourth quarter results.

接下來，讓我將其交給尼爾，讓您了解我們第四季的業績。

Thanks, Chris. Turning to Slide 3. We finished the year strong and ahead of our expectations, with solid growth in organic sales across all 3 segments, even as the year-over-year comparisons became more difficult. And overall segment operating profit for the year was up 18% versus 2022. We also ended the year with strong free cash flow, as you heard from Chris. For the fourth quarter, we had adjusted sales of $19.8 billion, up 10% organically versus the prior year. This was primarily driven by growth in commercial aerospace as well as growth across defense in all 3 segments.

謝謝，克里斯。轉向幻燈片 3。我們以強勁的表現結束了這一年，超出了我們的預期，所有 3 個細分市場的有機銷售額均實現穩健增長，儘管同比比較變得更加困難。今年整體部門營業利潤比 2022 年增長了 18%。正如您從 Chris 那裡聽到的那樣，我們在年底還擁有強勁的自由現金流。第四季度，我們調整後的銷售額為 198 億美元，比上年有機成長 10%。這主要是由商業航空航太的成長以及所有三個領域的國防成長所推動的。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 was a bit better than our expectations, and up 2% as profit from higher commercial aftermarket at Pratt and Collins and drop-through on higher defense volume was partially offset by the expected headwinds from higher interest, taxes and lower pension income. Keep in mind, we dealt with about $2.3 billion of inflationary headwinds in 2023, of which about 1/4 of that was in the fourth quarter, which we largely overcame through pricing and cost reduction actions.

調整後每股收益為1.29 美元，略好於我們的預期，增長2%，因為普瑞特和柯林斯商業售後市場的利潤增加以及國防業務量的增加所帶來的利潤被較高的利息、稅收和較低的預期阻力所部分抵銷。退休金收入。請記住，我們在 2023 年應對了約 23 億美元的通膨逆風，其中約 1/4 是在第四季度，我們在很大程度上透過定價和削減成本行動克服了這一困難。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.05 per share and included $0.29 of acquisition accounting adjustments, a $0.06 benefit related to a customer settlement and $0.01 of net charges associated with the restructuring and other nonrecurring items. And finally, we delivered free cash flow of $3.9 billion in the quarter, bringing our total free cash flow for the year to $5.5 billion, which is about $700 million ahead of our prior outlook as powder metal related impacts have shifted and year-end collections were stronger than expected.

依照 GAAP 計算，持續經營業務的每股收益為 1.05 美元，其中包括 0.29 美元的收購會計調整、與客戶和解相關的 0.06 美元收益以及與重組和其他非經常性項目相關的 0.01 美元淨費用。最後，我們在本季度交付了39 億美元的自由現金流，使我們全年的自由現金流總額達到55 億美元，這比我們之前的預期提前了約7 億美元，因為粉末金屬相關的影響已經發生變化，而且年終收款也發生了變化。比預期的要強。

With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share our thoughts on 2024 and 2025.

接下來，讓我將其交給 Jennifer，帶您了解細分結果，然後我會回來分享我們對 2024 年和 2025 年的想法。

Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins on Slide 4. Sales were $7 billion in the quarter, up 12% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by continued strength in commercial OE and aftermarket growth. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 23%, driven by a 27% increase in provisioning, a 26% increase in parts and repair and an increase of 7% in mods and upgrades in the quarter.

謝謝，尼爾。從幻燈片 4 上的柯林斯開始。本季銷售額為 70 億美元，調整後銷售額和有機銷售額均增長 12%，這主要是由商業原廠設備和售後市場增長的持續強勁推動的。按通路劃分，商業售後市場銷售額成長了 23%，這主要得益於本季供應成長 27%、零件和維修成長 26%、改裝和升級成長 7%。

Commercial OE sales for the quarter were up 17% versus the prior year, driven by continued growth in both narrow-body and wide-body platform, and military sales were up 1%, primarily due to higher delivery. Adjusted operating profit of $1.04 billion was up $190 million or 22% from the prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable mix, partially offset by lower commercial OE as drop-through on OE volume was more than offset by higher production costs. In addition, higher R&D expense was offset by lower SG&A.

在窄體和寬體平台持續成長的推動下，本季商用原配設備銷量較上年增長 17%，軍用設備銷量成長 1%，主要是由於交付量增加。調整後營業利潤為10.4 億美元，較上年增長1.9 億美元，即22%，這得益於商業售後市場銷量的增加和有利的產品組合，但商業原件銷量的下降部分抵消了原件銷量的下降，因為原件銷量的下降被更高的銷量所抵消。生產成本。此外，較高的研發費用被較低的銷售管理費用所抵銷。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5, sales of $6.4 billion were up 14%, both on an adjusted and organic basis with sales growth across all 3 channels. Commercial OE sales were up 20% in the quarter, driven by higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 18% in the quarter, driven by higher volume in both large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses. And in the military business, sales were up 4%, primarily driven by higher sustainment volume, which was partially offset by lower material input on production programs.

轉到投影片 5 上的普惠公司，銷售額成長了 14%，達到 64 億美元，無論是在調整後還是在有機基礎上，所有 3 個通路的銷售額都在成長。在引擎交付量增加以及大型商用引擎和普拉特加拿大業務的有利組合的推動下，本季商用原配設備銷售額成長了 20%。在大型商用引擎和普拉特加拿大業務銷量增加的推動下，本季商用售後市場銷售額成長了 18%。在軍事業務中，銷售額增加了 4%，主要是由於維持量增加，但生產計劃材料投入減少部分抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted operating profit of $405 million was up $84 million from the prior year, primarily driven by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable commercial OE mix. This was partially offset by higher commercial OE volumes, higher production costs and unfavorable military contract adjustment in the absence of a benefit from a prior year customer contract adjustment. And finally, higher R&D expense was offset by lower SG&A.

調整後營業利潤為 4.05 億美元，比上年增加 8,400 萬美元，這主要是由於商業售後市場銷量增加和有利的商業原廠組合的下降所致。由於上一年客戶合約調整沒有帶來好處，商業原件數量增加、生產成本增加以及軍事合約調整不利，部分抵消了這一影響。最後，較高的研發費用會被較低的銷售管理費用所抵銷。

Now turning to Raytheon on Slide 6. Sales of $6.9 billion in the quarter were up 3% on an adjusted basis and 4% organically, primarily driven by higher volume on advanced technology and air power program. Adjusted operating profit for the quarter of $618 million was up $48 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by higher volume and lower operating expenses, partially offset by unfavorable net program efficiencies.

現在轉向幻燈片 6 上的雷神公司。本季銷售額 69 億美元，調整後成長 3%，有機成長 4%，這主要是由先進技術和空中動力項目銷量增加所推動的。該季度調整後營業利潤為 6.18 億美元，比上年同期增加 4,800 萬美元，主要是由於銷售增加和營運費用減少，部分被不利的淨計劃效率所抵消。

Bookings and backlog continue to be very strong as we finish the year. In the fourth quarter, $9.1 billion of bookings resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.33, and an end of the year backlog of $52 billion. And for the full year, Raytheon's book-to-bill was 1.22.

年底時，預訂量和積壓量仍然非常強勁。第四季度，訂單量為 91 億美元，訂單出貨比為 1.33，年底積壓金額為 520 億美元。雷神公司全年的訂單出貨比為 1.22。

With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on 2024.

至此，我將把它轉回 Neil，為 2024 年提供一些資訊。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let's turn to Slide 7. Before I get into the specifics on our '24 financial outlook, just a couple of comments on the environment as we look ahead. So let me start with the positives. As Chris said, global RPMs are back to 2019 levels. However, they have not fully recovered with respect to long-haul international travel, particularly wide-body, but that is expected to continue to be a tailwind for us going forward. On the narrow-body side, demand for new aircraft remains strong, which continues to support both OE and aftermarket growth. Specific to the commercial OE side, with increasing commercial production rates, we expect commercial OE revenue will be up between about 10% and 15% in '24. And with respect to commercial aftermarket, we currently expect sales to be up over 10% in '24, and that's on top of the 23% growth we saw in '23.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。讓我們轉向投影片 7。在詳細介紹我們 24 年的財務前景之前，請先對我們展望未來的環境發表一些評論。讓我從正面的方面開始吧。正如 Chris 所說，全球每千次展示收入已回到 2019 年的水準。然而，它們在長途國際旅行方面尚未完全恢復，特別是寬體客機，但這預計將繼續成為我們未來發展的推動力。在窄體飛機方面，對新飛機的需求仍然強勁，這繼續支持原廠和售後市場的成長。具體到商業OE方面，隨著商業生產力的提高，我們預期2024年商業OE收入將成長約10%至15%。至於商業售後市場，我們目前預計 24 年銷售額將成長 10% 以上，而 23 年成長率為 23%。

Turning to defense, global defense spending remains elevated, which will continue to support our backlog ahead as our key programs remain well funded. Across RTX, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence to deliver cost reduction and further margin expansion. In 2023, we achieved $295 million of incremental RTX merger cost synergies, keeping us on track to achieve our $2 billion in gross cost synergy goal by the end of 2025.

談到國防，全球國防支出仍然很高，這將繼續支持我們未來的積壓工作，因為我們的關鍵項目仍然資金充足。在整個 RTX 中，我們仍然專注於推動卓越運營，以降低成本並進一步擴大利潤。 2023 年，我們實現了 2.95 億美元的增量 RTX 合併成本綜效，使我們有望在 2025 年底實現 20 億美元的總成本綜效目標。

On the challenges side, there are certain pockets where inflation remains elevated. We will see the lingering effect of the past couple of years' inflation as we deliver on our backlog. In '24, we expect to see about $1.7 billion of material and labor inflation, which we expect to be more than offset by higher pricing and the benefits from our digital transformation projects and other aggressive cost reduction initiatives across the company. And as Chris said before, we continue to focus on executing on our GTF fleet management plan and are working relentlessly to mitigate further disruption to our customers.

在挑戰方面，某些地區的通膨仍然較高。當我們交付積壓訂單時，我們將看到過去幾年通貨膨脹的揮之不去的影響。 24 年，我們預計將出現約17 億美元的材料和勞動力通膨，我們預計，更高的定價以及我們的數位轉型項目和全公司其他積極的成本削減舉措所帶來的好處將足以抵消這一通膨。正如克里斯之前所說，我們將繼續專注於執行 GTF 車隊管理計劃，並不懈努力，以減輕對客戶的進一步幹擾。

And of course, we're continuing to support the health of the supply chain. While we are seeing continued improvements, there are areas that remain challenged where we are dedicating resources, including suppliers who provide structural castings and rocket motors, 2 critical areas that continue to pace our recovery. And as I mentioned back in October, we continue to see headwinds due to the actions we have taken to preserve the improved funded status of our pension plans as well as the recognition of historical asset experience. And finally, we're keeping an eye on the U.S. and global tax environment, Congressional action on the fiscal year '24 budget and, of course, the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.

當然，我們將繼續支持供應鏈的健康發展。雖然我們看到持續的改進，但我們正在投入資源的一些領域仍然面臨挑戰，包括提供結構鑄件和火箭引擎的供應商，這兩個關鍵領域將繼續加快我們的復甦步伐。正如我在 10 月提到的，由於我們為維持退休金計畫資金狀況的改善以及對歷史資產經驗的認可而採取的行動，我們繼續看到阻力。最後，我們正在密切關注美國和全球稅收環境、國會對 24 財年預算的行動，當然還有更廣泛的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境。

So with that backdrop, let me tell you how this translates to our financial outlook for the year on Slide 8. At the RTX level, we expect another year of solid growth in adjusted sales, segment operating profit and earnings per share, along with continued strength in free cash flow. Before I get into the details, let me share with you a couple of key assumptions embedded in our outlook as it relates to the 2 dispositions we announced last year. First, with respect to the Raytheon cybersecurity business, we have assumed that this transaction will close here in the first quarter. Therefore, on a reported basis, we will see about a $1.3 billion year-over-year reduction in reported sales and about an $80 million year-over-year headwind to operating profit. The Collins '24 outlook still includes the actuation business as we continue to work on the business disposition.

因此，在這種背景下，讓我在幻燈片8 上告訴您這將如何轉化為我們今年的財務前景。在RTX 層面，我們預計調整後銷售額、部門營業利潤和每股收益將迎來又一年的穩健成長，並且持續成長。自由現金流的實力。在詳細介紹之前，讓我與您分享我們展望中的幾個關鍵假設，因為它與我們去年宣布的兩項處置相關。首先，關於雷神網路安全業務，我們假設這筆交易將在第一季完成。因此，根據報告，我們將看到報告銷售額年減約 13 億美元，營業利潤年減約 8,000 萬美元。隨著我們繼續致力於業務處置，柯林斯 24 年展望仍包括驅動業務。

So with that, starting with sales, at the RTX level, we expect full year 2024 sales of between $78 billion and $79 billion, which translates to organic growth of between 7% and 8% year-over-year. From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted EPS of between $5.25 and $5.40, and that's up 4% to 7% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $5.7 billion for the year. And despite only being up $200 million year-over-year, there is strong operational improvement, so let me take you through the moving pieces.

因此，從 RTX 層級的銷售額開始，我們預計 2024 年全年銷售額將在 780 億美元至 790 億美元之間，這意味著同比有機成長在 7% 至 8% 之間。從獲利角度來看，我們預計調整後每股收益在 5.25 美元至 5.40 美元之間，年增 4% 至 7%。我們預計今年將產生約 57 億美元的自由現金流。儘管同比僅增長了 2 億美元，但營運方面卻取得了巨大的進步，所以讓我帶您了解這些變化。

First, we are expecting strong segment profit growth and working capital improvement to drive $2.3 billion of improvement year-over-year. Embedded in that is about $100 million headwind on higher CapEx in '24 as we continue to invest in capacity expansion, digital transformation and operational modernization. Payments related to powder metal impacts are expected to be a headwind of about $1.3 billion. We'll also see a net headwind of about $500 million, primarily from higher interest expense, principally from the debt we issued to fund the ASR. And finally, a headwind of about $300 million from lower pension cash recovery.

首先，我們預期強勁的部門利潤成長和營運資本改善將推動年增 23 億美元。隨著我們繼續投資於產能擴張、數位轉型和營運現代化，24 年資本支出增加將帶來約 1 億美元的阻力。與粉末金屬影響相關的付款預計將帶來約 13 億美元的阻力。我們還將看到約 5 億美元的淨阻力，主要來自較高的利息支出，主要來自我們為 ASR 提供​​資金而發行的債務。最後，退休金現金回收率下降帶來約 3 億美元的不利影響。

Now let me turn to our EPS walk, starting at the segment level. Operating profit growth of about 16% is expected to result in approximately $0.72 of EPS growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. With respect to pension, while markets have improved since our call in October, there will still be a headwind of about $0.36 year-over-year. And as I just mentioned, given the increased debt outstanding, interest expense will be a $0.30 headwind. A lower average outstanding share count resulting from our recent ASR will provide a tailwind of about $0.37. And finally, our tax rate in '24 is expected to be approximately 19.5% versus the 18.5% in 2023. This, combined with higher corporate investments in digital transformation, will result in a $0.16 headwind year-over-year. All of this brings us to our outlook range of $5.25 to $5.40 per share.

現在讓我談談我們的 EPS 分析，從細分層面開始。營業利潤成長約 16% 預計將導致每股收益成長約 0.72 美元（達到我們展望範圍的中點）。就退休金而言，雖然自我們 10 月的電話會議以來市場有所改善，但仍將出現同比約 0.36 美元的阻力。正如我剛才提到的，鑑於未償債務增加，利息支出將是 0.30 美元的阻力。我們最近的 ASR 導致平均流通股數量減少，這將帶來約 0.37 美元的推動力。最後，我們 24 年的稅率預計約為 19.5%，而 2023 年為 18.5%。再加上企業在數位轉型方面的投資增加，將導致同比 0.16 美元的逆風。所有這些使我們的展望範圍為每股 5.25 美元至 5.40 美元。

Okay. With that, let's go to Slide 9 to get into our outlook by segment, where we expect continued organic sales and earnings growth across all 3 businesses. Starting with Collins, we expect full year sales to be up mid- to high-single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by both wide-body and narrow-body commercial OE production ramps and continued commercial aftermarket. Military sales at Collins are expected to be up low to mid-single digits for the year. With respect to Collins' adjusted operating profit, we expect it to grow between $650 million and $725 million versus last year. This is primarily driven by drop-through on higher volume across all 3 channels as well as higher pricing and the benefit from continued cost reduction initiatives.

好的。接下來，讓我們轉到投影片 9，按細分市場了解我們的前景，我們預計所有 3 項業務的自然銷售和利潤將持續成長。從柯林斯開始，我們預計全年銷售額在調整後和有機基礎上均將實現中高個位數增長，這主要是由寬體和窄體商用原配設備產量增加以及持續的商業售後市場推動。柯林斯今年的軍品銷售預計將成長到中個位數。至於柯林斯調整後的營業利潤，我們預計將比去年成長 6.5 億至 7.25 億美元。這主要是由於所有 3 個管道的流量增加、定價上漲以及持續降低成本措施的好處。

Turning to Pratt & Whitney, we expect full year sales to be up low double digits on an adjusted and organic basis versus prior year, driven by higher OE deliveries in both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses, as well as continued growth in shop visits across legacy large commercial engines, GTF and Pratt Canada.

至於普惠公司，我們預計全年銷售額在調整後和有機基礎上將比上年增長兩位數，這是由於普惠大型商用發動機和普惠加拿大業務的原配設備交付量增加以及商店的持續成長所推動的參觀傳統大型商用引擎、GTF 和 Pratt Canada。

Military sales at Pratt are expected to be up mid-single digits driven by higher F135 sustainment volume as heavy overhauls continue to ramp. As a result, we expect Pratt's adjusted operating profit to grow between $400 million and $475 million versus last year, primarily on commercial aftermarket drop-through and military growth, which will be partially offset by higher large commercial OE deliveries.

隨著大修持續增加，F135 維護量增加，預計普拉特的軍品銷售將成長中個位數。因此，我們預計普拉特調整後的營業利潤將比去年增長 4 億至 4.75 億美元，主要是由於商業售後市場的直通和軍事增長，這將被大型商業原設備交付量的增加部分抵消。

And at Raytheon, on an organic basis, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single digits versus 2023 as we deliver our backlog and continue to see supply chain improvement. Adjusted operating profit at Raytheon is expected to be up between $100 million and $200 million versus prior year, driven by drop-through on higher volume and improvement in productivity, which will be partially offset by mixed headwinds. Keep in mind, we'll see about $80 million of year-over-year headwind from the divestiture of the cybersecurity business this year.

在雷神公司，我們預計隨著我們交付積壓訂單並繼續看到供應鏈的改善，與 2023 年相比，雷神公司的銷售額將實現低至中個位數的成長。雷神公司調整後的營業利潤預計將比上年增加 1 億至 2 億美元，這是由於產量增加和生產力提高的推動，這將被混合阻力部分抵消。請記住，今年我們將看到網路安全業務剝離帶來的同比逆風約為 8000 萬美元。

And to wrap up our outlook, at the RTX level, higher intercompany activity will increase sales eliminations by about 10% year-over-year, and we've included an outlook for some of the below-the-line items and pension in the webcast appendices.

為了總結我們的前景，在 RTX 層面，公司間活動的增加將使銷售沖銷年增約 10%，並且我們已將一些線下項目和退休金的前景納入了網路廣播附錄。

Finally, let me make a few comments on our 2025 financial commitments. As you know, there have been some significant changes in the macro environment since we first established these long-term targets, impacts ranging from Russian sanctions, elevated inflation issues with labor availability and, of course, the associated disruptions throughout the supply chain. And we continue to take incremental actions to further reduce costs, realign our business units, increasing pricing and investing in productivity improvements to combat these headwinds.

最後，讓我對我們 2025 年的財務承諾發表一些評論。如您所知，自我們首次製定這些長期目標以來，宏觀環境發生了一些重大變化，其影響包括俄羅斯制裁、勞動力供應帶來的通貨膨脹問題加劇，當然還有整個供應鏈的相關中斷。我們將繼續採取漸進行動，進一步降低成本、重新調整我們的業務部門、提高定價並投資於提高生產力，以應對這些不利因素。

Other factors underlying our long-term assumptions, however, have been also positive, such as the pace of the commercial air recovery and demand for our defense products and services. All that said, despite those puts and takes, we continue to expect Collins and Pratt to be within the sales and operating profit 2020 to 2025 growth targets we discussed last year at our Investor Day. However, because of the recent performance at Raytheon, we are recalibrating our outlook for this segment. When taking into account divestitures, we now expect the 2020 to 2025 annual growth rate for adjusted sales to be between 3% and 3.5%. That's down slightly from our previous expectation of 3.5% to 4.5% for the same period, and driven largely by the initiatives we talked about upfront that will take some time to convert over the next couple of years. As you know, demand remains strong, and our robust backlog will continue to support significant top line growth going forward.

然而，我們長期假設的其他因素也是正面的，例如商業航空復甦的速度以及對我們國防產品和服務的需求。儘管如此，儘管有這些調整和調整，我們仍然預計柯林斯和普拉特將實現我們去年在投資者日討論的 2020 年至 2025 年銷售和營業利潤增長目標。然而，由於雷神公司最近的表現，我們正在重新調整我們對該領域的前景。考慮到資產剝離，我們目前預計 2020 年至 2025 年調整後銷售額的年增長率將在 3% 至 3.5% 之間。這比我們之前預期的同期 3.5% 至 4.5% 略有下降，這主要是由我們預先討論的舉措推動的，這些舉措將在未來幾年內需要一些時間來轉化。如您所知，需求依然強勁，我們強勁的積壓訂單將繼續支持未來收入的顯著成長。

Similarly, with respect to Raytheon's adjusted operating profit growth, given the continued productivity challenges we described, we now see Raytheon's 2020 to 2025 annual growth rate to be between 1% and 2.5%, which is down from our prior outlook of between 5.5% to 7.5%. As a result of this segment change, we now see the RTX level adjusted sales annual growth rate from 2020 through 2025 to be between 5.5% and 6% on an organic basis. That's down slightly from our prior outlook of between 6% and 7%. And taking into account the adjustment to Raytheon's operating profit outlook, we now see overall RTX adjusted margin expansion to be between 500 and 550 basis points between 2020 and 2025, and that's down from our prior outlook of between 550 and 650 basis points.

同樣，關於雷神公司調整後的營業利潤增長，考慮到我們所描述的持續的生產力挑戰，我們現在預計雷神公司2020年至2025年的年增長率將在1%至2.5%之間，低於我們之前5.5%至2.5%之間的預期。7.5%。由於這一細分市場的變化，我們現在看到，從 2020 年到 2025 年，RTX 等級調整後的銷售額年增長率在有機基礎上在 5.5% 到 6% 之間。這比我們之前預測的 6% 到 7% 略有下降。考慮到雷神公司營運利潤前景的調整，我們現在預計 2020 年至 2025 年間 RTX 調整後的整體利潤率擴張將在 500 至 550 個基點之間，這低於我們先前 550 至 650 個基點的預期。

However, importantly, there is no change to our RTX 2025 free cash flow target of $7.5 billion as we remain confident in the significant cash-generating capability of our businesses, and we are continuing to drive structural cost reduction and working capital improvements as we invest in the business and deliver on our commitment to return $36 billion to $37 billion of capital to shareowners from the date of the merger through '25.

然而，重要的是，我們的RTX 2025 年75 億美元自由現金流目標沒有改變，因為我們對我們業務的巨大現金生成能力仍然充滿信心，並且我們在投資時將繼續推動結構性成本降低和營運資本改善並履行我們的承諾，從合併之日起至 2025 年向股東返還 360 億至 370 億美元的資本。

So with that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

那麼，我會把它交還給格雷格來結束一切。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. I'm on Slide 10. Let me just wrap this up. I know we've covered a lot of ground today, but I -- there's some key takeaways that everybody should focus on here. Obviously, 2023 was a challenging year. The earnings performance of our Raytheon business obviously was disappointing, as was the Pratt powder metal issue. But importantly, demand remains strong across both of our commercial and defense markets. 11% organic growth in 2023 is just the beginning. With the strength of our $196 billion backlog, we're confident that we'll continue to see strong organic sales and earnings growth along with accelerated free cash flow generation over the coming years. I believe we have the best-positioned A&D portfolio, industry-leading franchises and robust demand for our products and technologies. This positions us well for the future.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。我正在看第 10 張投影片。讓我總結一下。我知道我們今天已經討論了很多內容，但是我——有一些關鍵要點是每個人都應該關注的。顯然，2023年是充滿挑戰的一年。我們的雷神公司業務的盈利表現顯然令人失望，普拉特粉末金屬問題也是如此。但重要的是，我們的商業和國防市場的需求仍然強勁。 2023 年 11% 的有機成長只是一個開始。憑藉 1,960 億美元的積壓訂單，我們有信心在未來幾年將繼續看到強勁的有機銷售和盈利增長以及自由現金流的加速生成。我相信我們擁有最有利的 A&D 產品組合、業界領先的特許經營權以及對我們產品和技術的強勁需求。這使我們為未來做好了準備。

Secondly, we're intensely focused on execution to support our customers and to drive operational performance improvement. We're clearly going to face challenges this year with the continued ramp of the supply chain and the impact of higher costs. But everyone at RTX is working tirelessly to overcome these obstacles and ensure that we deliver on our commitments.

其次，我們高度重視執行力，以支援客戶並推動營運績效改善。由於供應鏈的持續成長和成本上升的影響，今年我們顯然將面臨挑戰。但 RTX 的每個人都在不懈地努力，克服這些障礙，確保我們兌現我們的承諾。

Lastly, we're staying disciplined in managing the business to continue investing in differentiated technologies and innovation, strengthening our balance sheet, all while continuing to return significant capital to our shareowners.

最後，我們在業務管理方面保持紀律，並繼續投資於差異化技術和創新，加強我們的資產負債表，同時繼續向股東返還大量資本。

I want to close again by thanking all of the RTX employees who have been working diligently every single day over the last year to deliver on our mission to create a safer, more connected world.

最後，我想再次感謝所有 RTX 員工，他們在過去的一年裡每天都在努力工作，以實現我們創造一個更安全、更互聯的世界的使命。

With that, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

接下來，讓我們繼續提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自Vertical Research 的Robert Stallard。

Chris, inevitably your first question on the GTF situation. It does sound like some things have moved since your update in October. And I think you mentioned that the scheduling of the AOGs looks like it's going to be a slightly different profile and also there could be a related cash impact to that. So I was wondering if you could give us some more color on that development.

克里斯，不可避免地你會問關於 GTF 情況的第一個問題。自從您十月份的更新以來，聽起來確實有些事情發生了變化。我想你提到過 AOG 的日程安排看起來會略有不同，而且可能會產生相關的現金影響。所以我想知道你是否能為我們提供有關這一進展的更多資訊。

Yes, you bet, Rob. So we did say here this morning that we do expect the peak to continue to be here in Q1 in terms of AOGs and then trend downward thereafter. Again, we think that peak is going to come down a bit since our initial assessment because really 2 reasons. One, the timing of the AD has shifted a bit to the right. And then two, customers took some proactive fleet planning and decided to, in some cases, accelerate some of their removals as they were doing their fleet planning for the year. They were pairing engines and doing all those things to make them more efficient. So again, peak here in Q1, trend downward after that, and then it will be a -- more of a steady state as we talked about in our October and September guides on the matter.

是的，你敢打賭，羅布。因此，我們今天早上確實說過，我們預計 AOG 的峰值將繼續出現在第一季度，然後呈下降趨勢。同樣，我們認為自我們最初的評估以來，高峰將會有所下降，原因有二。第一，AD 的時間稍微往右移動了一些。第二，客戶採取了一些積極主動的車隊規劃，並決定在某些情況下，在進行今年的車隊規劃時加快一些拆除速度。他們正在配對引擎並做所有這些事情來提高它們的效率。因此，再次強調，第一季度達到峰值，此後呈下降趨勢，然後將是一個更加穩定的狀態，正如我們在 10 月和 9 月的指南中所討論的那樣。

You mentioned a little bit on cash being pushed out. Again, Rob, that was the dynamic times we're going through and having discussions with our customers on special support. We've made some progress on special support. I think we've talked about that upfront. We've signed several agreements with our customers, some important customers who have large fleets. But the timing of that cash just simply moved out from the second half of '23 into '24. Same total aggregate amount of [6 to 7] just the timing moved a little bit to the right for the reasons I talked about.

你提到了一些關於現金被擠出的問題。羅布，那是我們正在經歷的充滿活力的時期，我們正在與客戶就特殊支援進行討論。我們在特殊支持方面取得了一些進展。我想我們已經提前討論過這個問題了。我們已經與客戶簽署了多項協議，其中一些重要客戶擁有大型車隊。但這筆現金的發放時間只是從 23 年下半年移至 24 年。 [6 到 7] 的總總量相同，只是因為我談到的原因，時間稍微向右移動了一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So your cash flow hit from the powder metal issue is $300 million higher in [20] than you said. Can you tell us how big was the impact in '23? And are we still going to be at $3 billion, and therefore, there's a plus of $300 million pickup in '25?

是的。因此，粉末金屬問題對您的現金流造成的影響比您所說的[20]高出 3 億美元。能告訴我們23年的影響有多大嗎？我們是否仍會達到 30 億美元，因此 25 年會增加 3 億美元？

Cai, it's Neil. Yes, I'll take that one. So as Chris was just talking about, when we closed out '23, for a variety of reasons, the cash flows shifted to the right. So the impact in '23 for powder metal related disbursements was essentially 0. So we moved about half of that into 2024. That's the $1.3 billion that you're seeing, still holding $1.5 billion in our '25 outlook, and then we see the rest spilling into early 2026. And so we'll continue to work, obviously, the agreements with our customers, and that will drive the ultimate timing of the payments, but you can see our assumptions that we've laid out there.

蔡，我是尼爾。是的，我會接受那個。正如克里斯剛才所說，當我們結束 23 年時，由於各種原因，現金流向右移動。因此，23 年對粉末金屬相關支出的影響基本上為0。因此，我們將其中大約一半移至2024 年。這就是您所看到的13 億美元，在我們的25 年展望中仍持有15億美元，然後我們看到剩下的時間會延長到 2026 年初。顯然，我們將繼續努力與客戶達成的協議，這將推動付款的最終時間，但你可以看到我們在那裡提出的假設。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I can't help, but compare (inaudible) just reported this morning, and they're talking about margins being flattish in aerospace based on OE mix and LEAP services mix. So just looking at Pratt, can you talk about the dynamics there given GTF volumes are growing, early GTF shop visits gotten higher? So what drives margins 100 basis points higher? Like what's embedded into the guide? Neil, you gave great color on the revenue assumptions. Can you give some assumptions on maybe the aftermarket specifics on the margins as well as the military overall is increasing, is that beneficial?

我忍不住，但比較（聽不清楚）今天早上剛剛報道的，他們正在談論基於 OE 組合和 LEAP 服務組合的航空航太領域的利潤率持平。那麼，就普拉特而言，您能談談考慮到 GTF 銷量不斷增長、早期 GTF 商店訪問量增加的動態嗎？那麼是什麼推動利潤率提高 100 個基點呢？例如指南中嵌入了什麼內容？尼爾，你對收入假設給了很好的解釋。您能否對售後市場細節以及軍事整體的成長做出一些假設，這是否有益？

Sure. Thanks, Sheila. Let me share a couple of other details that we didn't get into in the prepared remarks. So we did talk about the overall sales at Pratt being up in the low double-digit range, $400 million to $475 million of operating profit. The aftermarket sales are going to be up sort of low teens. So the drop-through on the aftermarket is going to be the principal driver of the year-over-year profit increase. And we talked a lot about expanding the margins on our -- both our legacy and GTF aftermarket as we increase the volumes there. And so some of that will start to show up in '24, and that's a driver of drop-through.

當然。謝謝，希拉。讓我分享一些我們在準備好的發言中沒有涉及的其他細節。因此，我們確實談到了普拉特的整體銷售額在兩位數範圍內成長，營業利潤為 4 億至 4.75 億美元。售後市場銷售將成長至十幾歲。因此，售後市場的下降將成為利潤年增的主要動力。我們談論了很多關於隨著我們增加銷量而擴大我們的傳統市場和 GTF 售後市場的利潤。因此，其中一些將在 24 年開始顯現，這是下降的驅動力。

On the OE side, we think the sales are going to be up in the mid-teens range. The good news there, as we look at engine productions, once you think about that is up about 20%, we'll see about a headwind of maybe $125 million associated with that higher volume. So we're getting much better absorption as the volumes return back to levels that we had seen prepandemic and that we've been capacitized to. So I think that's another place that we're going to get some margin expansion.

在原配設備方面，我們認為銷量將在十幾歲左右增長。好消息是，當我們考慮引擎產量時，一旦考慮到產量增加了約 20%，我們就會看到與產量增加相關的阻力可能為 1.25 億美元。因此，隨著數量恢復到我們在大流行前看到的水平以及我們已經能夠達到的水平，我們的吸收效果要好得多。所以我認為這是我們將獲得一些利潤擴張的另一個地方。

And then again, I'm not sure we got into this, but military will be up in the mid-single-digit range, I'd say, again. We had 5% growth on the top line there. And of course, that comes with good drop-through too as we get into 2024. So that's the Pratt story as we look into '24, just a little more color there.

話又說回來，我不確定我們是否會陷入這個問題，但我想說，軍事力量將在中等個位數範圍內上升。我們的營收成長了 5%。當然，隨著我們進入 2024 年，這也會帶來良好的下降。這就是我們在 24 年展望時的普拉特故事，只是有更多的色彩。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

I was wondering maybe, Neil, if you can comment on the offset to the lower implied earnings drop-through from the '25 guidance. What was the offset to allow you to maintain the cash flow there? And maybe for Chris, what, by the end of say, '24, would you have achieved in terms of incorporation of fully live parts into the fleet just as a metric, maybe we can sort of monitor by?

尼爾，我想知道您是否可以對 25 年指導中較低的隱含收益下降的抵消發表評論。允許您維持那裡的現金流的抵銷額是多少？也許對克里斯來說，到 24 年底，您將在將完全帶電的零件納入車隊方面取得什麼成果，作為我們可以監控的指標？

Thanks, Myles, Good morning. Let me start. Let me maybe start to frame the answer to that question with a little bit of an updated walk between '23 and '25 on free cash flow to get to the $7.5 billion. And then I'll talk about what obviously offset the reduction in the profit as part of that. So as we look from '23 of $5.5 billion, that $2 billion increase is going to come principally from what I would call operational growth, about $4.8 billion, $2.9 billion of which is going to come from the pre-tax segment operating profit, and Neil pointed out that, that will be lower than our prior guide, and that's around the midpoint.

謝謝，邁爾斯，早安。讓我開始吧。也許讓我開始回答這個問題，對 23 年至 25 年自由現金流進行一些更新，以達到 75 億美元。然後我將討論哪些因素明顯抵消了利潤的減少。因此，從 23 年的 55 億美元來看，這 20 億美元的成長將主要來自我所謂的營運成長，約 48 億美元，其中 29 億美元將來自稅前部門營運利潤，並且尼爾指出，這將低於我們之前的指南，大約是中點。

The remaining growth is going to come from working capital improvement, about $2.2 billion, about half of which we will deal with here in '24 as we look to hold our inventory flat. So our '23 headwind operationally was about $1 billion -- $600 million, rather. So we're looking year-over-year to improve that. And then we'll have about a half of -- I'm sorry, $400 million of CapEx between '23 and '25. So that will be a headwind. And then I just talked about the $1.5 billion powder metal impact and about $1 billion headwind that's split pretty evenly between interest and improvement in taxes. And then, finally, a few hundred million dollars of pension headwind. All of that should get you to $7.5 billion.

剩餘的成長將來自營運資本的改善，約為 22 億美元，其中約一半我們將在 20 年處理，因為我們希望保持庫存持平。因此，我們 23 年的營運逆風約為 10 億美元——更確切地說是 6 億美元。因此，我們希望逐年改進這一點。然後，我們將在 23 年至 25 年之間獲得大約一半的資本支出——抱歉，為 4 億美元。所以這將是一個逆風。然後我剛剛談到了 15 億美元的粉末金屬影響和大約 10 億美元的逆風，這些逆風在利息和稅收改善之間相當平均地分配。最後，還有數億美元的退休金逆風。所有這些將使您達到 75 億美元。

So what's changed as we look out to 2025, there's been really 3 things that are different. The first is, we've got about $1 billion net of tax lower operating profit baked into this long-term guide, but that's been offset by about $700 million of improvement in taxes, most notably on the back of improvements in our R&D position as well as a couple of hundred million dollars based on the assumptions we see today with respect to our pension outlays and then a little bit of additional working capital. So those are the key drivers.

展望 2025 年，我們發現有 3 件事發生了變化。首先，我們在這份長期指南中扣除了大約 10 億美元的稅後營業利潤，但這被大約 7 億美元的稅收改善所抵消，最明顯的是我們的研發地位的改善根據我們今天所看到的關於我們的退休金支出的假設，還有幾億美元，然後是一點額外的營運資金。這些是關鍵驅動因素。

And I'll talk to you now about the full life incorporation. So as we said upfront, and I think we made this commitment early on in September, October timeframe, full-life powder metal parts in OE, so at our customers' final assembly lines starting this year. So that's a good thing. Keep in mind, the OE engines have the latest build standard. And so when you add in the full life parts to those, you get the maximum time-on-wing to the customers. And also keep in mind, that means that the full-life parts will go into our spare engines, which are going out to lift the fleet again, maximizing the time-on-wing.

我現在要和你談談完整的生命合併。正如我們之前所說，我認為我們早在9 月、10 月的時間範圍內就做出了這一承諾，在原廠設備中提供全壽命粉末金屬零件，因此從今年開始在我們客戶的最終裝配線上。所以這是一件好事。請記住，原廠引擎具有最新的建造標準。因此，當您添加全壽命部件時，您將為客戶提供最長的運行時間。另請記住，這意味著全壽命零件將進入我們的備用發動機，這些發動機將再次提昇機隊，從而最大限度地延長在翼時間。

On the MRO side, what we said was we were going to start the incorporation in Q2 of this year. We've actually started that a little bit earlier. We've found opportunities to put full-life parts into MRO, where we think it makes the most sense from a time-on-wing perspective. As we said early on in the year, we're not going to get all of our shop visits with full-life parts. We're going to ramp throughout the year. Where we don't incorporate the full-life parts in the MRO, we're going to continue to obviously inspect those parts with the angle scan inspection that we developed and they will be put back into service until the next inspection interval.

在 MRO 方面，我們說我們將於今年第二季開始註冊。事實上我們已經開始了。我們發現了將全壽命零件放入 MRO 的機會，我們認為從在翼時間的角度來看這是最有意義的。正如我們在今年早些時候所說的那樣，我們不會在所有的車間訪問中都使用全壽命零件。我們將全年保持成長。如果我們沒有將全壽命零件納入 MRO，我們將繼續使用我們開發的角度掃描檢查來明顯檢查這些零件，並將它們重新投入使用，直到下一個檢查間隔。

And keep in mind, one of the things that we've been doing is just looking at the build standard and the interval for each of these engines that are coming in. There are opportunities to sort of match up just based on where -- the condition of the engine and where it is and where it flies in terms of the environment, a part that's been inspected that's not at full life, match it up with an engine that's going to be coming in for another reason around that same time. So you're not actually driving an incremental visit.

請記住，我們一直在做的事情之一就是查看構建標準以及每個即將推出的引擎的間隔。有機會根據位置進行匹配 -發動機的狀況、它所在的位置以及它在環境方面的飛行位置，一個經過檢查但未達到完整壽命的部件，將其與大約在同一時間因另一個原因而進入的發動機相匹配。所以你實際上並沒有推動增量訪問。

So again, that's sort of the algorithm that we're kind of going through each and every day with the Pratt team to sort of maximize our allocation in the full-life parts. But the MRO will be a ramp throughout the year. I think, ultimately, we'll get to roughly the same place that we had assumed we would had we started in Q2, but it will be a ramp throughout the year. And all of that's been factored into our outlook.

再說一遍，這就是我們每天與 Pratt 團隊一起討論的演算法，以最大限度地提高我們在全生命週期零件中的分配。但 MRO 將是全年的斜坡。我認為，最終，我們將達到與我們在第二季開始時假設的大致相同的水平，但這將是全年的斜坡。所有這些都已納入我們的展望中。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Chris, on Raytheon, you talked about some of the headwinds. Could you maybe give us a little more color on just where we are in terms of the profile of the fixed-price development programs and whether we're peaking now? And then kind of related to all this, just when should we start to see more of that mix shift from more of the FMS that you kind of talked about where we could see some better pricing long term?

克里斯，在雷神公司，您談到了一些不利因素。您能否為我們提供更多關於固定價格開發計劃概況以及我們現在是否達到頂峰的信息？然後與所有這些相關的是，我們什麼時候應該開始看到更多的混合轉變，從你談到的更多的 FMS 中我們可以看到一些更好的長期定價？

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Peter. So again, as we talked about the productivity issues at Raytheon, about 70%, as we said up front, were in the fixed price development programs. And I'll characterize some of these, Peter, as, in some cases, these are contracts that we took on that maybe weren't in our core capability suite, and we signed up for requirements and other specifications that are really, really difficult. And so it's taken us some time to continue to work through those.

是的。好的。謝謝，彼得。所以，當我們再次討論雷神公司的生產力問題時，正如我們前面所說，大約 70% 是在固定價格開發計劃中。彼得，我將描述其中的一些特徵，因為在某些情況下，我們簽訂的合約可能不在我們的核心功能套件中，並且我們簽署了非常非常困難的要求和其他規範。因此，我們花了一些時間來繼續解決這些問題。

In some cases, what we're doing, Peter, is we're taking subject matter experts across the company and just adding resources to these programs. It adds a little bit of expense, obviously, but I think in the long term, it gets the capability of the customer faster and, ultimately, is better financially for us and for the customer. And then in some cases, on these fixed-price development programs, we're having discussions with customers about either restructuring specifications, we're altering the requirements in a way that still get capability that's needed and that's helpful. But we can get to them, frankly, in a shorter period of time and with a better financial profile.

在某些情況下，彼得，我們正在做的是在整個公司範圍內聘請主題專家，並為這些計劃添加資源。顯然，它增加了一點費用，但我認為從長遠來看，它可以更快地獲得客戶的能力，最終對我們和客戶來說在財務上都更好。然後在某些情況下，在這些固定價格開發計劃中，我們正在與客戶討論重組規範，我們正在以仍然獲得所需能力且有幫助的方式改變需求。但坦白說，我們可以在更短的時間內以更好的財務狀況實現這些目標。

So those conversations continue to go. I'll tell you that we will get a handful here that we're still going to be powering through in 2024 and see that horizon getting better in the next 12 to 18 months as we go through certain milestones, Peter, and satisfy some contractual requirements. We then get into a different phase of the agreement and feel better about our ability to go and execute.

所以這些對話仍在繼續。我會告訴你，我們將在這裡得到一些我們仍然會在2024 年繼續努力的東西，並且隨著我們經歷某些里程碑並滿足一些合同，我們將在未來12 到18 個月內看到前景變得更好。要求。然後我們進入協議的不同階段，並對我們執行和執行的能力感覺更好。

Chris, maybe I would add just a couple of the financial points around our assumptions financially going into '24. As you think about the $100 million to $200 million profit increase, the first thing I would say is, in '23, we had about a $240 million headwind associated with these negative productivity as you said, 2/3, 70%, associated with these fixed-price development programs, principally a couple of them. As we look to '24, our assumption is that our absolute value of productivity is 0. So we'll see about a $200 million improvement year-over-year, we'll see about $100 million at the midpoint from volume and a little bit of headwind as the lower margins roll through the backlog in '24. And that's what we've contemplated both in the '24 and the '25 outlook.

克里斯，也許我會圍繞我們進入 24 年的財務假設添加一些財務要點。當你想到1 億至2 億美元的利潤成長時，我要說的第一件事是，在23 年，我們遇到了與這些負生產力相關的大約2.4 億美元的逆風，正如你所說，2 /3，70%，與這些固定價格開發計劃，主要是其中幾個。當我們展望 24 世紀時，我們的假設是我們的生產力絕對值為 0。因此，我們將看到同比增長約 2 億美元，我們將看到銷量的中位數約為 1 億美元，還有一點24年積壓訂單的利潤率較低，因此遇到了一些阻力。這就是我們在 24 世紀和 25 世紀的展望中所考慮的。

All of that gets you down to our guide, of course, of that $80 million headwind I talked about. And as you kind of look into '25, our productivity assumption is about a $100 million step-up. So again, this business, at one time, generated $300 million, $400 million, $500 million a year of productivity, but we need some time for that to play through to see those kinds of margins. But 2025 would not mark the peak of where we see Raytheon's margin potential.

當然，所有這些都讓您了解我們的指南，即我談到的 8000 萬美元的逆風。當你回顧 25 年時，我們的生產力假設大約是 1 億美元的提升。再說一遍，這項業務一度每年產生 3 億美元、4 億美元、5 億美元的生產力，但我們需要一些時間來發揮作用，才能看到這些利潤。但 2025 年雷神公司的利潤潛力不會達到頂峰。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak）。

Neil, I just want to make sure I have the, I guess, the starting point and the implied margin correct in the -- in this new 500 to 550, '20 to '25. So given restatements and the like, so I'm looking at 2020 segment operating margin all in of [8.2%], implying that the '25 is [13.2% to 13.7%]. So is that correct? And then can you just talk a little more about getting there from this '24 guidance? It would seem to either require a pretty nice step-up in the Raytheon defense margin or an acceleration in the incrementals at Pratt & Collins or all of the above.

尼爾，我只是想確保在這個新的 500 到 550、'20 到 '25 中，我的起點和隱含邊距是正確的。因此，考慮到重述等因素，我認為 2020 年部門營業利潤率為 [8.2%]，這意味著 25 年為 [13.2% 至 13.7%]。那麼這是正確的嗎？那麼您能否再多談談如何透過 24 世紀的指導實現這一目標？看來要嘛需要雷神公司的防禦裕度有相當大的提升，要嘛需要普拉特柯林斯公司的增量加速，或是以上所有。

Thanks, Noah. So as you kind of look at the multiyear outlook here, what we've done at the top end is we've tightened up the range a little bit for the RTX sales and margin. We still see Collins and Pratt being within the ranges we talked about. Frankly, the drivers are all the same that we talked about 6 months ago and the last quarter as well. The aftermarket is going to fuel that. We're going to get better absorption, and we'll see the benefits of lower spending on investments we've been making to drive cost reduction and the benefit of that cost reduction. So if you put all that, that's going to put Pratt and Collins in that range, probably closer towards the middle of the high end of that range. And then we just talked about the Raytheon pieces altogether.

謝謝，諾亞。因此，當您在這裡查看多年前景時，我們在高端所做的就是稍微收緊了 RTX 銷售額和利潤率的範圍。我們仍然看到柯林斯和普拉特處於我們討論的範圍內。坦白說，驅動因素與我們 6 個月前和上個季度討論過的都是一樣的。售後市場將推動這一點。我們將獲得更好的吸收，我們將看到減少我們為降低成本而進行的投資支出的好處以及降低成本的好處。所以，如果你把所有這些都放在一起，那就會把普拉特和柯林斯放在這個範圍內，可能更接近該範圍高端的中間位置。然後我們就一起討論了雷神公司的部分。

So I think, at the midpoint, when you take into account the dispositions that we've either completed or have announced, you'll see that our margin assumption at the RTX level is about the same as where we were projecting before these tweaks for the Raytheon recalibration.

所以我認為，在中間點，當你考慮到我們已經完成或已經宣布的處置時，你會發現我們在 RTX 水平上的利潤率假設與我們在這些調整之前的預測大致相同。雷神公司重新校準。

Okay. And just to make sure I have the -- what you said to Myles correct, in the $5.7 billion of free cash this year and the $7.5 billion next year, each of those assumes about $1 billion of positive change in working capital each year, is that right?

好的。只是為了確保我——你對邁爾斯所說的正確，在今年57 億美元的自由現金和明年75 億美元的自由現金中，每一項都假設每年營運資本發生約10 億美元的積極變化，是對嗎？

That's correct. And as you think about from '23 to '24, inventory is going to -- essentially, our plan is to stay flat. That will be about 80% of what generates that year-over-year working capital benefit in '24. And then as you look to '25, we'll see continued improvement in inventory as well as the benefit of customer advances. So we've realized a lot of customer advances over the last couple of years. They will burn down. And then as we see these international orders come back in, you'll see that pick up in the year '25.

這是正確的。正如你所想，從 23 年到 24 年，庫存將會——本質上，我們的計劃是保持不變。這將佔 24 年營運資本年比收益的 80% 左右。然後，當您展望 25 年時，我們將看到庫存的持續改善以及客戶進步的好處。因此，在過去幾年中，我們已經實現了許多客戶進步。它們會被燒毀。然後當我們看到這些國際訂單回來時，你會看到這種情況在 25 年有所回升。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的 Doug Harned。

It sounded from what you said, Chris, that you made some good progress on the AOG profile here for the GTF. But when you look at your customer base, you may have some who find that a high number of AOGs could put their financial performance at risk. Whether or not those issues are caused by Pratt, you could easily be targeted for responsibility. You already had the earlier Go First lawsuit. So how do you think about the risk for you with airlines that could be in a stressed financial position and maybe more difficult perhaps than how you might normally compensate a customer?

Chris，從你所說的看來，你在 GTF 的 AOG 簡介方面取得了一些良好的進展。但當您查看您的客戶群時，可能會有一些人發現大量 AOG 可能會使他們的財務表現面臨風險。無論這些問題是否是普拉特造成的，您都可能很容易成為責任的目標。您已經有過早期的“Go First”訴訟。那麼，您如何看待航空公司可能面臨的風險，這些航空公司可能面臨財務狀況緊張，而且可能比您通常如何補償客戶更困難？

Yes. Thanks, Doug. I mean, first of all, I'll tell you that we are engaging with our customers each and every day to try to figure out how best to support them, whether that's through conductions, whether that's through special support, whether that's through spare engine allocation, whatever it may be. And you're right, Doug, there are some customers out there, 10 to 12, I think as we've talked about before, they're going to be more impacted than others. There are some that are all Pratt fleets, whether it be GTF and V2500.

是的。謝謝，道格。我的意思是，首先，我會告訴你，我們每天都在與客戶接觸，試圖弄清楚如何最好地支持他們，無論是透過傳導，無論是透過特殊支持，還是透過備用引擎分配，無論是什麼。你是對的，Doug，有一些客戶，10 到 12 個，我認為正如我們之前討論過的，他們會比其他人受到更大的影響。有些都是普拉特車隊，無論是GTF還是V2500。

And so, again, working very hard with them to come up with a compensation structure relative to the powder metal AOG situation. That's fair and that can give them a little bit of lift. Obviously, it won't make up for all of the disruption that they're having in their fleet and all of the things that they've got to do to accommodate for these removals. But again, doing the best we can to come up with a fair set of compensation structures to help out during these trying times.

因此，我們再次與他們一起努力製定針對粉末金屬 AOG 情況的補償結構。這是公平的，這可以為他們帶來一點提升。顯然，這無法彌補他們的機隊遭受的所有乾擾以及他們為適應這些搬遷而必須做的所有事情。但同樣，我們會盡最大努力製定一套公平的薪酬結構，以便在這些艱難時期提供幫助。

And then, of course, communicate with them consistently about what we're seeing in terms of the assumptions that we're talking about here, full-life incorporation, MRO, MRO output, all the things that are going to drive better fleet support for them. So obviously, I don't want to be in a position where we're putting our customers in harm's way and where they're going to be very upset with us and want to take action. But I'll tell you, we've got a track record of coming to agreement with our customers on some of the more difficult problems we faced, and I'm confident we're going to be able do it again.

然後，當然，與他們持續溝通我們在這裡討論的假設、全生命週期合併、MRO、MRO 輸出以及所有將推動更好的機隊支援的事情對於他們來說。顯然，我不想讓我們的客戶受到傷害，也不想讓他們對我們感到非常不滿並希望採取行動。但我會告訴你，我們有與客戶就我們面臨的一些更困難的問題達成一致的記錄，我相信我們能夠再次做到這一點。

And if I can, are you seeing any improvement in the time, the induction time, to get these engines in the shop as part of this AOG profile?

如果可以的話，作為 AOG 配置文件的一部分，您是否認為將這些引擎送入車間的時間（誘導時間）有任何改進？

Right now, Doug, the wing-to-wing turnaround time remains consistent with what we had talked about previously. I will tell you, and we kind of alluded to this earlier, we are continuing to aggressively pursue with our aftermarket partners. Again, we've got some Tier 1 aftermarket providers as part of the GTF aftermarket network, trying to come up with what I would call light or medium type work scopes that can take the in-shop time down further. Again, trying to maximize for time-on-wing, just depends on the operator, depends on the condition of the engine, but we're aggressively pursuing a number of work scopes that can take the in-shop time down.

道格，現在，翼對翼的周轉時間與我們之前討論的保持一致。我會告訴你，我們之前已經提到過這一點，我們正在繼續積極與我們的售後合作夥伴合作。同樣，我們有一些一級售後市場供應商作為 GTF 售後市場網絡的一部分，試圖提出我所說的輕型或中型工作範圍，可以進一步縮短店內時間。同樣，試圖最大化在翼時間，只取決於操作員，取決於引擎的狀況，但我們正在積極追求一些可以縮短車間時間的工作範圍。

In addition, I think you've heard us talk about this before. We've industrialized a significant number of repairs on the GTF, I want to say about 1,300 in 2023. We've got another significant step-up here in '24, all (technical difficulty).

此外，我想您之前已經聽我們談論過這個問題。我們已經對 GTF 進行了工業化的大量維修，我想說到 2023 年大約 1,300 次。我們在 24 年又取得了另一個重大進展（技術難度）。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

Wanted to ask what exactly is the bottleneck, Chris, to be able to ramp up production of full-life disks given that I think the powder metal switch occurred a while? I guess I'm just kind of confused there why it's not easier to ramp up the production of these full-life disks. And then could you touch on what you're expecting for large commercial engine deliveries in '24, and your confidence in being able to meet Airbus' requirements?

克里斯，我想問一下，考慮到粉末金屬轉換發生了一段時間，能夠提高全壽命磁碟的生產到底是什麼瓶頸？我想我只是有點困惑為什麼要提高這些全壽命磁碟的產量並不容易。那麼您能否談談您對 24 年大型商用引擎交付的期望，以及您對能夠滿足空中巴士要求的信心？

Sure. So as we talked about, David, the powdered metal value stream, we're asking it, both our own shops and our supply chain, to step up significantly here so that we can incorporate into MRO, as we talked about earlier, and in OE. So much more than that value stream clearly had anticipated midyear last year. Again, we feel like we've got pretty adequate forging capacity within our own 4 walls and with the supply chain. But again, we've got to continue to ramp up inspection capacity. We've got to ramp up machining capacity, all critical parts of that value stream.

當然。因此，正如我們所談論的，大衛，粉末金屬價值流，我們要求我們自己的商店和我們的供應鏈，在這方面顯著加強，以便我們可以納入 MRO，正如我們之前討論的那樣，並且在OE。價值流顯然比去年年中預期的要多得多。同樣，我們覺得我們在自己的四壁之內和供應鏈中擁有相當足夠的鍛造能力。但同樣，我們必須持續提升檢查能力。我們必須提高加工能力，這是該價值流的所有關鍵部分。

And I'll tell you, as you ramp up, and we saw this in 2019 as we were ramping and we're ramping up again here, as you take these parts to a volume that our supply chain wasn't necessarily anticipating and that we weren't necessarily anticipating, you've got to continue to double down on the fundamentals, the quality, the yield, the tooling and the maintenance, all the things that are instrumental in enabling that volume jump. So again, I would say we've made solid progress thus far and are generally tracking to where we thought we would be. But again, we've got to continue to step up throughout the year, especially as we want to increase the number of full-life parts we put into MRO.

我會告訴你，當你加速時，我們在 2019 年看到了這一點，當時我們正在加速，我們在這裡再次加速，當你將這些零件達到我們的供應鏈不一定預期的數量時，我們不一定預料到，你必須繼續在基本面、品質、產量、工具和維護上加倍努力，所有這些都有助於實現產量的跳躍。再說一次，我想說，到目前為止，我們已經取得了堅實的進展，並且總體上正在朝著我們預期的方向發展。但同樣，我們必須全年繼續努力，特別是當我們希望增加投入 MRO 的全壽命零件數量時。

To your question about Airbus, I think, and Neil said it before, up about 20% year-over-year here in '24. And again, we have discussions with Airbus all the time. They understand the fleet condition. They understand where we're ramping on powder metal parts and the like. And so we feel good about our ability to meet the commitment we made to them here in 2024.

對於你關於空中巴士的問題，我想，尼爾之前也說過，24 年年增約 20%。再說一遍，我們一直在與空中巴士公司進行討論。他們了解機隊狀況。他們了解我們在粉末金屬零件等方面的發展方向。因此，我們對 2024 年履行我們對他們所做的承諾的能力感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

Changing the subject a little bit, everybody seems to be talking about the powder metal thing. In Collins -- I mean the Collins outlook looks really good. Can you give some color around how much of that is being driven by wide-body and interiors, and if you're starting to really see a pickup there, right? Because the one thing that we're all kind of waiting for is the pickup in the wide-body market and that interiors business is generally a good leading indicator of what's going on.

稍微改變一下話題，每個人似乎都在談論粉末金屬的事情。在柯林斯——我的意思是柯林斯的前景看起來非常好。你能透露一下其中有多少是由寬體車和內裝驅動的嗎？如果你真的開始看到皮卡了，對吧？因為我們都在等待的一件事是寬體市場的回升，而內裝業務通常是一個很好的領先指標。

Let me start, Ron, and maybe Chris can add something. Let me give you a couple of details first. On the aftermarket side, at Collins, we expect that to be up high single digits to low double digits, I'd say, 10% or more. On the OE side, mid- to high single digits, and we're going to see, as everyone knows, about 40% incrementals there. And yes, wide-body is going to be a big driver. So as we've seen a lot of narrow-body, I'll call it, catch-up in growth over the last couple of years, we do expect that to shift to the wide-body.

讓我開始吧，羅恩，也許克里斯可以補充一些東西。首先讓我向您提供一些細節。在售後市場方面，在柯林斯，我們預計這一數字將上升到高個位數到低兩位數，我想說，10% 或更多。在 OE 方面，為中高個位數，眾所周知，我們將看到大約 40% 的增量。是的，寬體機將成為一個重要的推動力。因此，正如我們在過去幾年中看到的許多窄體飛機（我稱之為追趕式成長）一樣，我們確實預計這種情況會轉向寬體飛機。

Now keep in mind, on the wide-body OE side for Collins, the margins are a bit thinner there, but it does set us up for good longer-term projections, especially as you get into '25 and '26 and beyond as that comes off warranty and converts to aftermarket.

現在請記住，在柯林斯的寬體 OE 方面，利潤有點薄，但這確實為我們提供了良好的長期預測，特別是當你進入 '25 和 '26 及以後時過了保固期並轉至售後市場。

Around the interior business, I think Steve Timm had said this back in June, that business is growing, but it's nowhere near levels of 2019. And so we don't see that coming back until about 2026. So the good news is there's a lot of runway there, and we are seeing a lot of activity there. So I think that will be a growth driver. But clearly, we're starting to see a bit more of a shift from narrow-body into wide-body as we go into the next couple of years.

關於內裝業務，我認為Steve Timm 在6 月就曾說過，業務正在成長，但遠未達到2019 年的水平。因此，我們要到2026 年左右才能看到這種情況的恢復。所以好消息是，有那裡有很多跑道，我們看到那裡有很多活動。所以我認為這將成為成長動力。但顯然，隨著我們進入未來幾年，我們將開始看到更多從窄體到寬體的轉變。

Yes. Maybe the only thing I would add to that, Ron, is that Steve and team are very focused on the transformation within interiors. I think there's some opportunity to consolidate sites to continue to remove ERP systems. As you know, there's been an integration that's been going on in that interiors business in particular. So I think a lot of good work on continuing to transform the cost footprint in the interiors business. So when that volume continues to come back, it will be at the types of margins that you would expect.

是的。羅恩，也許我唯一要補充的是，史蒂夫和團隊非常關注室內裝潢的轉變。我認為有一些機會可以整合網站以繼續刪除 ERP 系統。如您所知，特別是在室內裝飾業務中正在進行整合。因此，我認為在繼續改變室內裝飾業務的成本足跡方面做了很多很好的工作。因此，當銷售量繼續回升時，利潤率將達到您所期望的水平。

Got it. Got it. And have you guys seen any airlines, any customers yet requesting retrofits and upgrades to interiors on their existing wide-body fleets?

知道了。知道了。你們是否見過任何航空公司、任何客戶要求對其現有的寬體機隊進行內裝改造和升級？

Ron, that's actually an ongoing process. We are in the process of working with a number of airlines as they are going through their retrofit. And keep in mind, that is a 3- to 5-year process to upgrade these things. So we are still finishing out things that we had signed up for back in 2018, 2019. But again, as Neil said, the business is coming back. But given the long cycle nature of these upgrades, you're not going to see a heck of a lot of that in '24, more in '25 and certainly more in '26.

羅恩，這其實是一個持續的過程。我們正在與多家航空公司合作，因為他們正在進行改造。請記住，升級這些東西需要 3 到 5 年的過程。因此，我們仍在完成 2018 年、2019 年簽約的事情。但正如尼爾所說，業務正在恢復。但考慮到這些升級的長週期性質，你不會在 24 年看到太多這樣的升級，在 25 年會看到更多，在 26 年肯定會更多。

Our final question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Yes. Maybe just following up on Collins and kind of the growth outlook for this year, when we think about how much OE production rates are rising, we think about the strength in the aftermarket. Kind of what's the potential for upside on the top line there? And I guess, how much is a drag is the military business? It's a pretty significant chunk of the portfolio. And given the growth rate in the second half and what you're forecasting overall for '24, it seems like maybe this isn't a business that's really -- the military business that's going to participate in the budget growth and outlay growth that we're seeing now.

是的。也許只是跟進柯林斯和今年的成長前景，當我們考慮原廠生產力的上升幅度時，我們會考慮售後市場的實力。那裡的收入有哪些上漲潛力？我猜，軍事業務對我們的拖累有多大？這是投資組合中相當重要的一環。考慮到下半年的成長率以及您對 24 年的總體預測，這似乎不是一個真正的軍事業務，它將參與我們的預算成長和支出成長。現在正在看到。

Seth, let me start. I wouldn't characterize the defense business within Collins as a drag. I think the defense business in '23 was flat at the top line, and it experienced a lot of the same issues we've been talking about on the Raytheon side in terms of the impacts of inflation, the delays in the supply chain. But as we look to '24, we're going to see, I'd say, healthy growth there, low to mid-single digits as we catch up and the supply chain catches up and we burn down the overdue there. And I think we're really well positioned on a lot of strategic platforms. Remember, we moved businesses from the Raytheon segment into the Collins Mission Systems business to create more synergistic opportunity there. And I think that's really taking hold and there's a lot of good proposal activity there.

賽斯，讓我開始吧。我不會將柯林斯的國防業務視為拖累。我認為 23 年的國防業務收入持平，並且經歷了許多我們在雷神公司方面討論過的相同問題，包括通貨膨脹的影響、供應鏈的延誤。但當我們展望 24 年時，我想說，隨著我們迎頭趕上，供應鏈迎頭趕上，我們會看到那裡的健康增長，低到中個位數的增長，我們會燒掉那裡逾期的資金。我認為我們在許多戰略平台上都處於有利位置。請記住，我們將業務從雷神公司部門轉移到柯林斯任務系統部門，以在那裡創造更多的協同機會。我認為這確實很受歡迎，並且有很多很好的提案活動。

So I think it's a great fit, and it's in the right place in Collins. More broadly, I think just talking about the aftermarket potential at Collins, very strong, but we just put up some significant numbers there with aftermarket up 26% and provisioning up 42% on a full year. So clearly there's been a surge in aftermarket over the last year. And so we're dealing with some very difficult compares.

所以我認為它非常適合，而且位於柯林斯的正確位置。更廣泛地說，我認為只是談論柯林斯的售後市場潛力，非常強勁，但我們只是在那裡提供了一些重要的數字，售後市場全年增長 26%，配置增長 42%。很明顯，去年售後市場出現了激增。所以我們正在處理一些非常困難的比較。

And on the OE side, we'll start to see that growth moderate, but again, still on the back of some really strong 17% growth in '23. So I think Collins is well positioned, and I think the defense business is a good fit and it's in the right place there for it right now.

在 OE 方面，我們將開始看到成長放緩，但同樣，仍然得益於 23 年 17% 的強勁成長。因此，我認為柯林斯處於有利位置，而且我認為國防業務很適合，而且現在處於正確的位置。

Again, Seth, I'll just add much like the interiors, I think, Steve and team have a plan to continue to drive structural cost reduction within Collins to help margin expansion. We've talked about moving engineering presence to best loss cost locations by 2025 by a significant number, same with manufacturing hours. So a lot of center of excellence activity going on within Collins that'll continue to help with their cost footprint and support the margin expansion.

再次，塞斯，我只是補充一下內飾，我認為史蒂夫和團隊有計劃繼續推動柯林斯內部結構成本的降低，以幫助利潤率擴張。我們已經討論過到 2025 年將工程人員大量轉移到損失成本最佳的地點，製造時間也同樣如此。因此，柯林斯內部正在進行大量卓越中心活動，這將繼續幫助其降低成本並支持利潤率擴張。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for calling in and listening today. As always, Jennifer and her Investor Relations team will be available all day to answer whatever further questions you might have. So with that, thank you, and have a wonderful day. Take care.

好的。謝謝大家今天打電話並聆聽。像往常一樣，珍妮佛和她的投資者關係團隊將全天為您解答任何進一步的問題。所以，謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。小心。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。