雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RTX Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 RTX 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫拉蒂夫，今天我將擔任您的接線生。謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Calio, President and Chief Operating Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天參加電話會議的是董事長兼執行長 Greg Hayes； Chris Calio，總裁兼營運長；尼爾‧米切爾，財務長；珍妮佛·里德（Jennifer Reed），投資者關係副總裁。

This call is being webcast live on the Internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX's website at www.rtx.com.

此次電話會議正在網路上進行網路直播，並且可以從 RTX 網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX's SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整和淨非經常性和/或重大項目，通常被管理層稱為其他重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述均面臨風險和不確定性。 RTX 向 SEC 提交的文件，包括其表格 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。 （操作員說明）

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

現在，我將把電話轉給海耶斯先生。

All right. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we start, I want to spend just a minute acknowledging the tragic situation playing out in Israel today. It has been devastating to see what has unfolded there over the last couple of weeks, and our thoughts and prayers are with the people impacted, including the thousands of RTX employees that call Israel home.

好的。謝謝大家，大家早安。在我們開始之前，我想花一分鐘時間了解以色列今天正在發生的悲慘局勢。過去幾週在那裡發生的事情令人震驚，我們的思念和祈禱與受影響的人們同在，包括數千名以以色列為家的 RTX 員工。

With that said, let me turn to an update on our end markets. On the commercial aero side, air travel demand remains strong. We're seeing solid air traffic growth, with global revenue passenger miles essentially back to 2019 levels and domestic air travel well above 2019 levels. We also expect strong demand for holiday and business travel for the remainder of the year, supporting continued aftermarket strength for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft.

話雖如此，讓我談談我們終端市場的最新情況。在商業航空方面，航空旅行需求依然強勁。我們看到航空運輸量穩定成長，全球客運里程收入基本上回到 2019 年的水平，國內航空旅行遠高於 2019 年的水平。我們也預計今年剩餘時間內度假和商務旅行的需求強勁，這將支持寬體飛機和窄體飛機的售後市場持續強勁。

On the defense side, the elevated threat environment is continuing to drive increased defense spending globally. Just one example in the quarter, the United States approved moving forward with the sale of F-35 aircraft to South Korea. That's estimated to be worth about $5 billion and will support further growth with this customer for F-35 content for years to come.

在國防方面，威脅環境加劇持續推動全球國防支出增加。本季度的一個例子是，美國批准繼續向韓國出售 F-35 飛機。預計價值約 50 億美元，並將支援該客戶在未來幾年進一步成長 F-35 內容。

Additionally, the U.S. State Department approved a significant sale to Spain for the Patriot air and missile defense systems earlier this month, and that's expected to include approximately $1 billion of Raytheon content. And as Russia's invasion of Ukraine unfortunately continues, we are seeing significant demand from the U.S. and our allies for advanced air defense systems and munitions. During this past quarter, this included additional orders for NASAMS; Excalibur, which are precision-guided artillery shells; Stinger, anti-aircraft munitions; and TOW, antitank-guided missiles.

此外，美國國務院本月稍早批准向西班牙出售愛國者防空和飛彈防禦系統，預計其中包括價值約 10 億美元的雷神公司產品。不幸的是，隨著俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵繼續進行，我們看到美國及其盟國對先進防空系統和彈藥的巨大需求。在過去的這個季度，這包括 NASAMS 的額外訂單； Excalibur，精確導引砲彈；毒刺、防空彈藥；和陶式反坦克導引飛彈。

Domestically, despite what we've seen over the last few weeks in D.C., we remain confident that there is bipartisan support for increased defense spending. And RTX continues to be well positioned across all 3 of our businesses.

在國內，儘管過去幾週我們在華盛頓看到了一些情況，但我們仍然相信兩黨都支持增加國防開支。 RTX 在我們的所有 3 項業務中繼續處於有利地位。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney. Let me give you an update on the powder metal manufacturing quality matter. Our efforts to date have been heavily focused on ensuring the safety of our engines. As you saw in the press release this morning, we have finalized the charge recorded here in the quarter, which is in line with what we had previously disclosed.

轉向普惠公司。讓我向您介紹粉末金屬製造品質問題的最新情況。迄今為止，我們的努力主要集中在確保引擎的安全上。正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的，我們已經最終確定了本季度記錄的費用，這與我們之前披露的內容一致。

So just a few thoughts on the powder metal issue. Through the early stages of removals and inspections of the PW1100 engine, which powers the A320neo aircraft, our outlook, both financially and operationally, remains consistent with our expectations. We've also made significant progress on the safety assessments for the other Pratt & Whitney-powered fleets. That includes the PW1500, which powers the A220; the PW1900, which powers the Embraer E2; and the V2500, which powers the legacy A320.

以上是關於粉末金屬問題的一些想法。透過為 A320neo 飛機提供動力的 PW1100 發動機的早期拆卸和檢查階段，我們的財務和營運前景仍然符合我們的預期。我們也在其他普惠公司動力車隊的安全評估方面取得了重大進展。其中包括為 A220 提供動力的 PW1500； PW1900，為巴西航空工業公司 E2 提供動力；以及為傳統 A320 提供動力的 V2500。

With the analyses substantially complete, we do not expect any significant incremental financial impact as a result of those fleet management plans. The focus of both Pratt & Whitney and the entire RTX organization is on maintaining the trust of our customers and our partners, and we are relentlessly working to improve upon the plans we have in place today.

隨著分析基本完成，我們預計這些車隊管理計劃不會產生任何重大的增量財務影響。 Pratt & Whitney 和整個 RTX 組織的重點是維持客戶和合作夥伴的信任，我們正在不懈地努力改善我們今天制定的計畫。

As I've said to many of you over the last few months, we remain confident in the future of RTX because the demand for our products is robust, our end markets remain resilient across both commercial aerospace and defense and our team is laser-focused on driving performance excellence to meet our customer needs.

正如我過去幾個月對你們許多人所說的那樣，我們對RTX 的未來仍然充滿信心，因為對我們產品的需求強勁，我們的終端市場在商業航空航天和國防領域保持彈性，而且我們的團隊專注於雷射致力於推動卓越績效以滿足客戶需求。

Our backlog is now a record $190 billion, with a pipeline of both existing franchises and new technology developments. As we always have, we continue to actively manage our portfolio. As you saw this morning, we reached an agreement to sell Raytheon's cyber services business and a cash sale for approximately $1.3 billion, which combined with the recently announced sale of Collins' actuation business, this will generate approximately $3 billion of gross proceeds in 2024.

我們的積壓訂單現已達到創紀錄的 1,900 億美元，其中包括現有特許經營權和新技術開發的管道。一如既往，我們繼續積極管理我們的投資組合。正如您今天早上所看到的，我們達成協議，以約13 億美元的價格出售雷神公司的網路服務業務和現金出售，再加上最近宣佈出售柯林斯的驅動業務，這將在2024 年產生約30億美元的總收益。

So with that, let's turn to Slide 2. As we also announced this morning, our Board has approved a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program, or ASR, which we will be initiating tomorrow. Simply put, we see a significant discount between the intrinsic value of RTX and our current stock price.

那麼，讓我們轉向幻燈片 2。正如我們今天早上宣布的那樣，我們的董事會已批准一項 100 億美元的加速股票回購計劃 (ASR)，我們將於明天啟動該計劃。簡而言之，我們看到 RTX 的內在價值與我們目前的股價之間有顯著折扣。

The long-term outlook of the GTF remains strong, and Pratt's franchises extend well beyond the GTF. The V2500 has about 6,000 engines still flying and is in the sweet spot of its aftermarket cycle. Pratt Canada continues to be the world's premier small engine manufacturer, with an installed base of more than 60,000 engines. And the military business of Pratt is the sole provider of engines on fifth-generation fighters.

GTF 的長期前景依然強勁，普拉特的特許經營權遠遠超出了 GTF。 V2500 約有 6,000 台引擎仍在運行，正處於其售後週期的最佳狀態。普拉特加拿大公司仍然是世界首屈一指的小型引擎製造商，擁有超過 60,000 台引擎的安裝基地。而普拉特軍工業務是第五代戰鬥機引擎的唯一供應商。

Collins has a great portfolio, with 70% of their product lines serving as #1 or 2 in their segments and strong margin expansion opportunities. And lastly, our newly combined Raytheon segment has an incredible number of well-established franchises, along with a growing portfolio of next-generation technologies. This includes LTAMDS, which is the next-generation Patriot defense system, and the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM.

Collins 擁有出色的產品組合，其 70% 的產品線在其細分市場中排名第一或第二，並具有強勁的利潤擴張機會。最後，我們新合併的雷神公司部門擁有數量驚人的成熟特許經營權，以及不斷增長的下一代技術組合。這包括LTAMDS（下一代愛國者防禦系統）和高超音速攻擊巡航飛彈（HACM）。

Given the fundamental strength of the company and growth opportunities ahead, our Board recently approved an $11 billion authority to repurchase RTX shares. This includes $10 billion through an ASR program to help capture some of that value more immediately. The new authorization replaces the company's previous program, which was approved in December of 2022.

鑑於公司的基本實力和未來的成長機會，我們的董事會最近批准了 110 億美元的授權來回購 RTX 股票。其中包括透過 ASR 計畫投入 100 億美元，幫助更迅速地獲得部分價值。新的授權取代了該公司先前於 2022 年 12 月批准的計劃。

This ASR, of course, is on top of the $2.6 billion we've already repurchased year-to-date. Altogether, this will increase our capital return commitment to shareowners to $36 billion to $37 billion through 2025 from the time of the merger. That's up from our previous range of $33 billion to $35 billion. As I said, this ASR program will commence almost immediately and will be funded through a combination of short- and long-term debt.

當然，這個 ASR 是在我們今年迄今已經回購的 26 億美元之上的。總而言之，從合併之日起，到 2025 年，我們對股東的資本回報承諾將增加到 360 億至 370 億美元。這高於我們之前 330 億美元至 350 億美元的範圍。正如我所說，該 ASR 計劃幾乎將立即啟動，並將透過短期和長期債務的組合提供資金。

And importantly, we'll begin the process of deleveraging in 2024, in part supported by the proceeds from the recently announced dispositions that I just mentioned. So despite near-term headwinds, the future of RTX remains bright, and we remain steadfast in our commitment to deliver long-term shareowner value.

重要的是，我們將在 2024 年開始去槓桿化進程，這在一定程度上得到了我剛才提到的最近宣布的處置收益的支持。因此，儘管近期存在阻力，RTX 的未來仍然光明，我們仍然堅定地致力於實現長期股東價值。

With that, let me hand it over to Chris to provide additional color on the Pratt matters and to cover the Q3 highlights.

接下來，讓我將其交給克里斯，為普拉特問題提供更多資訊並涵蓋第三季的亮點。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm on Slide 3. As Greg said, the powder metal situation is our top priority. The bottom line is that our outlook for managing both the fleet impact and the financial impact remains intact since our last call, and our team continues to execute on our fleet management and recovery plans.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我在幻燈片 3 上。正如格雷格所說，粉末金屬情況是我們的首要任務。最重要的是，自上次電話會議以來，我們對管理機隊影響和財務影響的前景保持不變，並且我們的團隊繼續執行我們的機隊管理和恢復計劃。

Let me provide a few more details, and I'll start with the GTF. With respect to the PW1100, there is no change to the plan we outlined in our September call. The fleet management plan and financial estimates remain consistent with what we said 6 weeks ago, and our focus is on executing all elements of the fleet management plan, in particular, industrial output and material flow, MRO output and customer support.

讓我提供更多細節，我將從 GTF 開始。關於 PW1100，我們在 9 月的電話會議中概述的計劃沒有變更。機隊管理計畫和財務估算與我們 6 週前所說的保持一致，我們的重點是執行機隊管理計畫的所有要素，特別是工業產出和物料流、MRO 產出和客戶支援。

The first tranche of the engine removals has occurred, and several of these engines were eligible for a project visit work scope. And the turnaround times for these visits average roughly 35 days. While project visits will be a smaller portion of the overall shop visits, the turnaround time is encouraging, and our teams are continuing to identify further process improvements. And from a process perspective, additional bulletins will be released in the next few weeks that outline the life limits and repetitive inspection requirements that we detailed on our prior call. And just by way of background, it is common practice for a fleet management plan to be communicated through multiple service bulletins and airworthiness directives to address different engine models, compliance times or components and sections of the engine.

第一批引擎拆除工作已經完成，其中幾台引擎符合計畫參觀工作範圍。這些訪問的周轉時間平均約為 35 天。雖然專案訪問僅佔整個商店訪問的一小部分，但周轉時間令人鼓舞，我們的團隊正在繼續尋找進一步的流程改進。從流程的角度來看，未來幾週將發布更多公告，概述我們在先前的電話會議中詳細介紹的壽命限制和重複檢查要求。僅作為背景，機隊管理計畫的常見做法是透過多個服務公告和適航指令進行傳達，以解決不同的引擎型號、合規時間或引擎的組件和部分。

Now let me share some details on our other GTF programs. For the PW1500 and the 1900, we will institute a fleet management plan that will largely fit inside the shop visit plans that are already in place for these fleets. We believe the financial impact won't be significant and is contemplated in our current contract estimates and the financial outlook for Pratt.

現在讓我分享一些關於我們其他 GTF 專案的細節。對於 PW1500 和 1900，我們將製定車隊管理計劃，該計劃將在很大程度上適合這些車隊已經制定的車間訪問計劃。我們認為財務影響不會很大，並且在我們目前的合約估算和普拉特的財務前景中都已考慮到。

As part of this plan, we will place a shorter life limit on certain early configuration parts and an inspection requirement at about 5,000 cycles for current configuration parts. There will be some incremental AOGs in the first half of 2024, but we believe these will be largely mitigated by the end of the year. Regulators and air framers are aligned with this recommendation. We expect the service bulletin implementing these actions will be released beginning in November, followed by airworthiness directives.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們將對某些早期配置部件設定較短的壽命限制，並對當前配置部件設定約 5,000 個週期的檢查要求。 2024 年上半年將會出現一些增量 AOG，但我們相信到年底這些增量將在很大程度上得到緩解。調節器和空氣調節器均符合此建議。我們預計實施這些行動的服務公告將於 11 月開始發布，隨後將發布適航指令。

Let me now turn to the V2500. And as a reminder, we've had a fleet management and inspection plan in place since 2021. We're going to augment this plan by accelerating certain inspections, but expect this too will have very little impact operationally or financially. It will result in a total of roughly 100 or less incremental removals stretched out over the next 4 years, with the majority of these visits having a project visit work scope.

現在讓我談談V2500。提醒一下，我們自 2021 年以來就制定了車隊管理和檢查計劃。我們將透過加快某些檢查來增強該計劃，但預計這對營運或財務影響也很小。這將導致在未來 4 年內總共進行約 100 次或更少的增量拆除，其中大部分訪問都有專案訪問工作範圍。

Again, very manageable given the size of the V2500 fleet, the number of spare engines available and engines in the market with available green time. All of this is contemplated in our current contract estimates and, perhaps, financial outlook. This action will be communicated through a service bulletin to be released in the November time frame.

同樣，考慮到 V2500 機隊的規模、可用備用引擎的數量以及市場上可用綠燈時間的引擎數量，這也是非常容易管理的。所有這些都在我們目前的合約估算以及財務前景中考慮。這項行動將透過 11 月發布的服務公告進行傳達。

And lastly, turning to the F135. The joint program office is reviewing our fleet management plan recommendation, which we believe will have limited, if any, operational impact on the customer. We continue to evaluate the balance of the Pratt fleet containing powder metal and expect any fleet management plan updates, if needed, to have limited impact.

最後，轉向 F135。聯合專案辦公室正在審查我們的車隊管理計劃建議，我們認為該建議對客戶的營運影響（如果有的話）將是有限的。我們將繼續評估包含粉末金屬的普拉特車隊的平衡，並預計任何車隊管理計劃更新（如果需要）的影響有限。

With our fleet management plan largely set, let me turn to the operational initiatives we are focused on to support our customers: increasing capacity and reducing turn times in our MRO shops and ramping up the production of new full-life powder metal parts.

隨著我們的車隊管理計劃基本確定，讓我談談我們為支持客戶而重點關注的營運舉措：增加 MRO 車間的產能並縮短週轉時間，並提高新的全壽命粉末金屬零件的產量。

First, with respect to MRO, we're accelerating previously planned investments in the GTF network to increase capacity and bring more shops online to support our customers. Just last month, Pratt announced they're adding capacity at their Singapore engine center, which will be perhaps the third facility expansion this year. And earlier this month, MRO shops operated by China Airlines and Korea Air inducted their first GTF engines. And by the end of the year, Iberia Maintenance will also be joining the GTF aftermarket network.

首先，在 MRO 方面，我們正在加速先前規劃的 GTF 網路投資，以增加容量並讓更多商店上線以支援我們的客戶。就在上個月，普拉特宣布他們將增加新加坡引擎中心的產能，這可能是今年第三次的設施擴建。本月早些時候，中華航空和大韓航空營運的 MRO 商店引進了第一批 GTF 引擎。到今年年底，Iberia Maintenance 也將加入 GTF 售後網路。

Once complete, this network will have 16 sites globally, having brought online 6 partner shops this year but plans for an additional 3 shops to come online by 2025, bringing the total to 19. This will enable the network to be able to conduct more than 2,000 annual shop visits in 2025 to support the global GTF fleet, a roughly fivefold increase from 2019.

建成後，該網絡將在全球擁有 16 個站點，今年已上線 6 家合作夥伴商店，但計劃到 2025 年再上線 3 家商店，使總數達到 19 家。這將使該網絡能夠開展超過到2025 年，每年將進行2,000 次到店訪問，以支援全球GTF 車隊，比2019 年增加約五倍。

We're also leveraging our extensive knowledge and talent across RTX to drive process enhancements to help us improve turn times in our MRO shops compared to our baseline plan. This includes a cross-functional team focused on part availability, repair development and industrialization and process improvements on the shop floor.

與我們的基準計劃相比，我們還利用我們在 RTX 領域的豐富知識和人才來推動流程改進，幫助我們縮短 MRO 車間的周轉時間。這包括一個跨職能團隊，專注於零件可用性、維修開發和工業化以及車間流程改進。

Second, and as we said in September, our objective is to replace as many HPT and HPC disks as possible, with full-life disks when engines come in for a shop visit in order to maximize their time on wing when they leave the shop.

其次，正如我們在 9 月所說，我們的目標是在發動機送修時更換盡可能多的 HPT 和 HPC 磁碟，並使用全壽命磁碟，以便在離開工廠時最大限度地延長其在翼時間。

As we've said before, we previously made the necessary powder metal production and forging capacity investments and now are increasing our machining and inspection capacity. Our baseline plan today forecasts Q2 2024 to get to run rate capacity for disk production. We are working to accelerate this time line, which will allow us to replace an even larger portion of the fleet with full-life parts.

正如我們之前所說，我們之前進行了必要的粉末金屬生產和鍛造產能投資，現在正在增加我們的機械加工和檢測能力。我們今天的基準計劃預測 2024 年第二季將達到磁碟生產的運行率容量。我們正在努力加快這條時間線，這將使我們能夠用全壽命零件更換更大一部分的機隊。

So to wrap up on powder metal. Our fleet management plans on the most impacted fleets are largely complete. The financial impact has been reassessed and remains consistent with what we said on our September 11 call on the subject, and we are fully focused on executing these plans.

所以要包裹粉末金屬。我們對受影響最嚴重的車隊的車隊管理計劃已基本完成。財務影響已重新評估，並且與我們在 9 月 11 日的電話會議上就該主題所說的內容保持一致，我們將完全專注於執行這些計劃。

I'll shift now to the third quarter highlights, which Neil will provide some additional color on in a few minutes. On an adjusted basis, organic sales grew 12%, our third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and segment operating profit grew 15%. Adjusted EPS was in line with our expectations at $1.25, and we had strong free cash flow of $2.8 billion in the quarter.

我現在將轉向第三季的亮點，尼爾將在幾分鐘內提供一些額外的顏色。調整後，有機銷售額成長 12%，連續第三個季度達到兩位數成長，部門營業利潤成長 15%。調整後每股收益 1.25 美元，符合我們的預期，本季我們擁有 28 億美元的強勁自由現金流。

Sales growth was again led by the continued commercial air traffic recovery, with strong commercial OE growth of 26% and 25% commercial aftermarket growth while defense sales were up 2% year-over-year. In the quarter, we captured $22 billion in new bookings and had a book-to-bill of 1.19 across RTX, bringing our backlog to a record $190 billion.

銷售成長再次受到商業航空交通持續復甦的帶動，商業原件強勁增長 26%，商業售後市場增長 25%，而國防銷售同比增長 2%。本季度，我們獲得了 220 億美元的新預訂，RTX 的訂單出貨比為 1.19，使我們的積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 1,900 億美元。

Finally, Q3 was the first quarter we officially began operating in our realigned 3-business-unit structure. We are continuing to develop initiatives to leverage our scale and breadth to better enable customer alignment and best-in-class cost structure.

最後，第三季是我們在重新調整的 3 業務部門結構中正式開始營運的第一個季度。我們正在繼續制定計劃，利用我們的規模和廣度，更好地實現客戶協調和一流的成本結構。

With respect to our 2023 outlook, with 1 quarter to go, we are raising both our reported and adjusted sales outlook for the year. On a reported basis, we expect sales to be approximately $68.5 billion. And on an adjusted basis, we expect sales to be approximately $74 billion, up about 10% organically versus the prior year. We're also tightening our EPS range and have incorporated a few cents of tax headwind from some recent IRS guidance around R&D capitalization, which Neil will discuss further. As a result, we now see adjusted EPS between $4.98 and $5.02 for the year. Additionally, we expect free cash flow for the year to improve by approximately $500 million, driven primarily by the IRS guidance I just mentioned, just favorable from a cash perspective, and we are, therefore, increasing our free cash flow outlook to approximately $4.8 billion.

關於我們的 2023 年展望，距離最後一個季度的到來，我們正在上調全年報告和調整後的銷售前景。根據報告，我們預計銷售額約為 685 億美元。在調整後的基礎上，我們預計銷售額約為 740 億美元，比上年有機成長約 10%。我們也收緊了每股盈餘範圍，並納入了美國國稅局最近關於研發資本化的一些指導意見帶來的幾美分的稅收阻力，尼爾將進一步討論這一點。因此，我們現在預計今年調整後每股收益將在 4.98 美元至 5.02 美元之間。此外，我們預計今年的自由現金流將改善約5 億美元，這主要是由我剛才提到的IRS 指導推動的，從現金角度來看，這只是有利的，因此，我們將自由現金流前景提高至約48 億美元。

So with that, let me turn it over to Neil to take you through the additional details on the quarter.

因此，讓我將其轉交給尼爾，帶您了解該季度的其他詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris. I'm on Slide 4. As you saw, we finalized our estimate for the PW1100 powder metal matter here in the third quarter and have recorded a $5.4 billion sales charge, our share of which resulted in a $2.9 billion operating profit impact. This is in line with what we communicated in September and resulted in reported sales of $13.5 billion in the third quarter.

謝謝，克里斯。我在幻燈片4 上。正如您所看到的，我們在第三季度最終確定了對PW1100 粉末金屬物質的估計，並記錄了54 億美元的銷售費用，我們所佔的份額導致了29 億美元的營業利潤影響。這與我們在 9 月傳達的訊息一致，並導致第三季銷售額達到 135 億美元。

As Chris said, we had adjusted sales of $19 billion for the quarter, up 12% organically versus the prior year. Growth was primarily driven by strong demand across our commercial OE and aftermarket businesses as OEMs continue to ramp production and airline supported the busy summer travel season. We also saw positive growth in defense as we continue to execute on our growing backlog.

正如 Chris 所說，我們調整了本季銷售額 190 億美元，比前一年有機成長了 12%。成長主要是由我們的商業原始設備製造商和售後市場業務的強勁需求推動的，因為原始設備製造商繼續提高產量，航空公司支持繁忙的夏季旅行季節。隨著我們繼續執行不斷增加的積壓工作，我們也看到了國防業務的積極成長。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was a loss of $0.68 and included $1.53 charge from the Pratt matter as well as $0.40 from acquisition accounting adjustments, restructuring and other nonrecurring and nonoperational items. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.25 was up 3% year-over-year, with higher segment operating profit partially offset by lower pension income, a higher effective tax rate and higher interest expense.

以 GAAP 計算，持續經營業務產生的每股收益為 0.68 美元虧損，其中包括 Pratt 事件產生的 1.53 美元費用以及收購會計調整、重組和其他非經常性和非經營性項目產生的 0.40 美元費用。調整後每股收益為 1.25 美元，年增 3%，較高的部門營業利潤被較低的退休金收入、較高的有效稅率和較高的利息支出部分抵消。

As Chris alluded to, the IRS recently provided guidance on R&D capitalization with respect to customer-funded R&D for certain cost-plus contracts. This means a portion of our previously capitalized R&D costs for tax purposes will now be currently deductible. While this will result in a slightly higher effective tax rate going forward, it will reduce our cash tax payments. In the quarter, this resulted in about a $0.02 headwind to adjusted earnings per share. For the full year, we expect this to be about $0.03 of headwind.

正如克里斯所提到的，美國國稅局最近就某些成本加成合約的客戶資助研發提供了研發資本化指導。這意味著我們之前出於稅收目的資本化的研發成本的一部分現在可以扣除。雖然這將導致未來的有效稅率略高，但它將減少我們的現金稅支付。本季度，這導致調整後每股收益下降約 0.02 美元。我們預計全年的阻力約為 0.03 美元。

Finally, as we had anticipated, we had strong free cash flow generation in the quarter of $2.8 billion, which included a benefit of approximately $500 million from the IRS' R&D capitalization guidance I just discussed.

最後，正如我們所預期的那樣，我們在本季產生了 28 億美元的強勁自由現金流，其中包括我剛才討論的 IRS 研發資本化指引中約 5 億美元的收益。

Now with that, let's turn to Slide 5 to get into the Q3 segment results. So before I begin, just a reminder, we are now reporting as 3 business units: Collins, Pratt and Raytheon.

現在，讓我們轉到投影片 5 以了解第三季的結果。在我開始之前，先提醒一下，我們現在作為 3 個業務部門進行報告：柯林斯 (Collins)、普拉特 (Pratt) 和雷神索爾 (Raytheon)。

Starting with Collins. Adjusted sales were $6.7 billion in the quarter, up 17% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by continued strength in commercial OE and aftermarket growth. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 30%, driven by a 35% increase in both provisioning as well as parts and repair, while modifications and upgrades were up 9% in the quarter. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 6%. Commercial OE sales were up 27% versus the prior year, driven by growth in both narrow-body and wide-body platforms. And military sales were down 1%, primarily due to the timing of deliveries.

從柯林斯開始。本季調整後銷售額為 67 億美元，調整後銷售額和有機銷售額均成長 17%，主要是由商業原廠設備和售後市場成長的持續強勁推動。按通路劃分，商業售後市場銷售額成長了 30%，這得益於供應以及零件和維修成長 35%，而本季改裝和升級成長了 9%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額成長了 6%。在窄體和寬體平台成長的推動下，商用原配設備銷量較上年增長 27%。軍品銷售下降了 1%，主要是由於交付時間的原因。

Adjusted operating profit of $1.04 billion was up $287 million or 38% on the prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket and OE volume partially offset by higher production costs, unfavorable military mix and higher SG&A expenses.

調整後營業利潤為 10.4 億美元，比上年增長 2.87 億美元，或 38%，商業售後市場和原廠件銷量增加的下降部分被生產成本上升、不利的軍事結構和銷售管理費用增加所抵消。

For the full year, given the continued strength in commercial OE and aftermarket, we now expect Collins' sales range to be up low to mid-teens, an increase from the previous range of up low double digits to low teens. With respect to operating profit, we are maintaining adjusted operating profit in our prior range of up $825 million to $875 million versus the prior year.

就全年而言，鑑於商業原配設備和售後市場的持續強勁，我們現在預計柯林斯的銷售額範圍將上升到十幾歲左右，高於之前的低兩位數到十幾歲以下的範圍。在營業利潤方面，我們將調整後的營業利潤維持在先前的範圍內，即比前一年增加 8.25 億美元至 8.75 億美元。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 6. As it relates to the powder metal matter, for the PW1100, in September, we communicated that we expected the gross financial impact to be in the range of $6 billion to $7 billion, with an expected Q3 pretax operating profit impact of approximately $3 billion. As I just mentioned, in the third quarter, we recorded a $5.4 billion sales charge, resulting in a $2.9 billion pretax operating profit impact, representing our net program share in line with where we expected. Recall, I mentioned that certain elements of the gross $6 billion to $7 billion cost will be booked upfront, and the remainder will be booked over the remaining life of the contracts.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的普惠公司。由於與粉末金屬物質有關，對於 PW1100，我們在 9 月表示，我們預計總體財務影響將在 60 億至 70 億美元之間，預計第三季稅前營業利潤影響約30 億美元。正如我剛才提到的，在第三季度，我們記錄了 54 億美元的銷售費用，從而產生了 29 億美元的稅前營業利潤影響，這表明我們的淨計劃份額與我們的預期一致。回想一下，我提到 60 億至 70 億美元總成本中的某些部分將提前預訂，其餘部分將在合約的剩餘期限內預訂。

So looking at Pratt's quarterly results on an adjusted basis, sales of $6.3 billion were up 18% and 17% on an organic basis, with sales growth across all 3 channels. Commercial OE sales were up 25% in the quarter, driven by higher engine deliveries and favorable mix in the large commercial engine business. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 21% in the quarter, driven by both higher volume and content as well as favorable mix in both the large commercial engine and Pratt & Whitney Canada businesses. And in the military business, sales were up 7%, driven by higher F135 development and sustainment volume.

因此，看看普瑞特調整後的季度業績，銷售額為 63 億美元，有機成長 18% 和 17%，所有 3 個通路的銷售額均實現成長。由於引擎交付量增加以及大型商用引擎業務的有利組合，本季商用原配設備銷售額成長了 25%。本季商用售後市場銷售額成長了 21%，這得益於大型商用引擎和普惠加拿大業務的銷售和內容的增加以及有利的組合。在軍事業務中，受 F135 開發和維護量增加的推動，銷售額增加了 7%。

Adjusted operating profit of $413 million was up $95 million from the prior year, with drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales, partially offset by higher commercial OE volume, higher production costs, unfavorable military mix as well as higher R&D expenses.

調整後的營業利潤為4.13 億美元，比上年增加9,500 萬美元，這是由於商業售後市場銷售額的增加而下降，但部分被商業原件銷量增加、生產成本增加、不利的軍事組合以及研發費用增加所抵消。

Looking ahead, due to higher commercial OE and military volume, we now expect Pratt's adjusted sales to be towards the higher end of our prior range or up mid-teens versus prior year. Given the higher military sales as well as better mix across OE and aftermarket, we're also increasing Pratt's adjusted operating profit from our prior range of up $200 million to $275 million to a new range of up $350 million to $400 million versus the prior year.

展望未來，由於商業原件和軍用銷售的增加，我們現在預計普瑞特調整後的銷售額將達到我們之前範圍的高端，或比前一年上升到十幾歲左右。鑑於軍事銷售的增加以及原廠和售後市場的更好組合，我們也將普拉特的調整後營業利潤從之前的2 億美元至2.75 億美元範圍提高到了3.5 億美元至4 億美元的新範圍。 。

Turning now to Raytheon on Slide 7. Sales of $6.5 billion in the quarter were up 3% on an adjusted and organic basis, primarily driven by higher volume in Naval Power programs, including AIM-9X, and Advanced Technology-classified programs. Adjusted operating profit of $570 million was down $124 million versus the prior year, driven primarily by higher volume on lower-margin programs and lower net program efficiencies and including additional headwind on certain fixed price development programs.

現在轉向幻燈片7 上的雷神公司。本季的銷售額為65 億美元，經調整後有機增長了3%，這主要是由於海軍動力項目（包括AIM-9X 和先進技術分類項目）銷量增加所致。調整後營業利潤為 5.7 億美元，比上年減少 1.24 億美元，這主要是由於低利潤項目的銷售增加和項目淨效率降低以及某些固定價格開發項目的額外阻力所致。

In addition, as expected, there was an unfavorable impact of about $20 million from a significant contract option exercised in the quarter. Raytheon had $7.4 billion of bookings in the quarter, including $1.9 billion in classified awards, a $412 million award for the next-generation short-range Interceptor program, and a $383 million award for HAWK and Patriot sustainment. This resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.16 and backlog of $50 billion. Year-to-date, Raytheon has a book-to-bill of 1.17.

此外，正如預期的那樣，本季執行的一項重大合約選擇權產生了約 2000 萬美元的不利影響。雷神公司本季的訂單額為 74 億美元，其中包括 19 億美元的機密獎勵、下一代短程攔截機計劃的 4.12 億美元獎勵以及用於 HAWK 和愛國者保障計劃的 3.83 億美元獎勵。這導致訂單出貨比為 1.16，積壓訂單達到 500 億美元。今年迄今，雷神公司的訂單出貨比為 1.17。

For the full year, we continue to expect sales to be up low to mid-single digits. With respect to operating profit, while the supply chain continues to improve, as evidenced by the increase in material receipts we have seen in the last 3 quarters, Raytheon continues to have productivity and mix challenges. This stemmed from a combination of the fixed price development programs we have previously discussed as well as higher production costs. As a result, we're reducing Raytheon's adjusted operating profit from the prior range of up $125 million to $175 million to a new range of up $25 million to $75 million versus the prior year.

就全年而言，我們繼續預期銷售額將成長至中個位數。就營業利潤而言，雖然供應鏈持續改善，正如我們在過去三個季度中看到的材料收入增加所證明的那樣，但雷神公司仍然面臨生產力和組合挑戰。這是由於我們之前討論過的固定價格開發計劃以及更高的生產成本的組合。因此，我們將雷神公司調整後的營業利潤從先前的 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元的範圍下調至與前一年相比增加 2,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元的新範圍。

Before I hand it back to Greg, just a couple of comments on the environment for 2024. Overall, we anticipate another year of solid growth in organic sales, segment operating profit, margin and free cash flow. However, the level of free cash flow growth will be tempered by the step-up in cash impacts associated with the powder metal matter as well as some headwind from cash taxes related to R&D.

在我將其交還給格雷格之前，我想對2024 年的環境發表一些評論。總體而言，我們預計有機銷售額、部門營業利潤、利潤率和自由現金流將在新的一年中實現穩健增長。然而，自由現金流的成長水準將受到粉末金屬物質相關現金影響的加劇以及與研發相關的現金稅的一些阻力的影響。

While commercial air travel demand has been incredibly strong from passengers and airlines, we see growth beginning to normalize as we head into 2024, with RPKs back at 2019 levels and the year-over-year compare is becoming more difficult. However, overall, we expect continued growth in OE and aftermarket, including the ongoing recovery of the wide-body.

儘管乘客和航空公司的商業航空旅行需求異常強勁，但隨著進入 2024 年，我們看到成長開始正常化，收入客公里 (RPK) 回到 2019 年的水平，而且同比比較變得更加困難。然而，總體而言，我們預計原配設備和售後市場將持續成長，包括寬體機的持續復甦。

On the defense side, we continue to expect strong international and domestic demand, which has already driven a 2023 year-to-date book-to-bill of 1.22 and a record defense backlog that will continue to convert to solid growth over the next several years. While inflation has begun to moderate, there are still pockets that remain persistently high within our manufacturing base. We expect this to continue into the next year. We'll continue working all the mitigation actions we've had in place in the past 2 years, and we'll implement additional strategic initiatives to offset the pressure we expect to see in 2024.

在國防方面，我們繼續預計強勁的國際和國內需求，這已經推動 2023 年迄今的訂單出貨比達到 1.22，並創下創紀錄的國防積壓訂單，並將在未來幾年繼續轉化為穩健增長。年。儘管通膨已開始放緩，但我們的製造業基地仍有部分地區的通膨率持續居高不下。我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。我們將繼續實施過去 2 年採取的所有緩解行動，並將實施額外的策略性舉措，以抵消我們預計在 2024 年看到的壓力。

Finally, as you know, we have seen a lot of volatility in the financial markets and interest rates. We expect this to drive further pension headwind next year that could be about $0.45 on a year-over-year basis given current market conditions and the actions we are taking to preserve the improved funded status of the pension plan.

最後，如您所知，我們看到金融市場和利率出現了很大的波動。鑑於當前的市場狀況以及我們為維持退休金計畫改善的資金狀況而採取的行動，我們預計這將進一步推動明年的退休金逆風，年比可能約為 0.45 美元。

So obviously, a lot of moving pieces here, but we are focused on driving execution and aggressive cost reduction and remain optimistic as we look ahead towards 2024 and 2025.

顯然，這裡有很多變化，但我們專注於推動執行和積極降低成本，並在展望 2024 年和 2025 年時保持樂觀。

With that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

有了這個，我會把它交還給格雷格來結束事情。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. Let's just take a step back, if we can, for a minute. I know there's a lot of information we've given you today. But really, I think there are 3 key takeaways from our discussion.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。如果可以的話，讓我們退後一步。我知道我們今天向您提供了很多資訊。但實際上，我認為我們的討論有 3 個關鍵要點。

First of all, I believe we have our arms around the operational and financial impacts of the powder metal issue. Our focus at Pratt & Whitney and across RTX is now executing on those plans that Chris laid out.

首先，我相信我們已經解決了粉末金屬問題對營運和財務的影響。 Pratt & Whitney 和整個 RTX 的重點現在正在執行 Chris 制定的那些計劃。

Secondly, strong demand continues in our end markets. That's evidenced by the 12% organic revenue growth we saw this quarter and the $190 billion backlog we ended the quarter with.

其次，我們的終端市場需求持續強勁。本季 12% 的有機收入成長以及本季末 1,900 億美元的積壓訂單就證明了這一點。

Finally, we see tremendous value in RTX today. And we're going to utilize our strong balance sheet to take advantage of this through a $10 billion ASR.

最後，我們今天看到了 RTX 的巨大價值。我們將利用我們強大的資產負債表，透過 100 億美元的 ASR 來利用這一點。

With that, let me stop and open it up for questions.

說到這裡，讓我停下來提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自貝爾德的 Peter Arment。

Greg, the last time you've done -- on the update call in September, you talked about kind of the headwinds that you would see in Pratt & Whitney margins as you look out kind of to the mid-decade. Has there been any change to that? Or you could just give us an update on how you think that progresses.

格雷格，您上次在 9 月的更新電話會議上談到了展望 20 世紀中期，普惠公司的利潤率將面臨的不利因素。這有什麼改變嗎？或者您可以向我們提供您認為進展的最新資訊。

No, I think -- thanks, Peter. What we've laid out, as you recall, back in September, we talked about the fact that some of the costs associated with the inspection interval will end up in contract accounting at Pratt. And that will depress margins on the aftermarket by about a point over time. Not significant, but it's all contemplated in the Pratt guidance as we think about '24, '25.

不，我想──謝謝，彼得。正如您所記得的，我們在 9 月所闡述的內容中，我們談到了這樣一個事實：與檢查間隔相關的一些成本最終將計入 Pratt 的合約會計中。隨著時間的推移，這將導致售後市場的利潤率下降約一個百分點。並不重要，但當我們考慮「24」、「25」時，普拉特指南中都考慮到了這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak）。

Can you spend a little more time on defense margins? I mean I heard the specifics you noted in the quarter, but just continues to move lower. Is there some bigger, broader thing happening at the end market level?

你能在防守餘裕上多花點時間嗎？我的意思是我聽到了您在本季度提到的具體細節，但只是繼續走低。終端市場層面是否正在發生一些更大、更廣泛的事情？

And Neil, did you ever provide a new consolidated once you consolidated the 2 segments margin target that's in the '25? And just as you spoke to '24 earlier in the call, can you just kind of update us on how you're expecting that defense margin to progress into the middle of the decade from here?

尼爾，一旦您合併了 25 年的 2 個細分市場利潤率目標，您是否曾經提供過新的合併數據？正如您早些時候在電話會議中與 '24 所說的那樣，您能否向我們介紹一下您預計國防裕度從現在開始到本世紀中期將如何發展的最新情況？

Noah, it's Chris. Maybe I'll start and then ask Neil to talk about the consolidated Raytheon. First, in terms of the end markets, demand remains very robust. You heard Neil talk about the 1.17 book-to-bill in the quarter -- or excuse me, year-to-date, the $7.4 billion in bookings in the quarter and the overall backlog of $50 billion. So really strong demand for the products.

諾亞，是克里斯。也許我會先請尼爾談談合併後的雷神公司。首先，從終端市場來看，需求依然十分旺盛。你聽到 Neil 談論本季 1.17 的訂單出貨比，或者對不起，年初至今，本季的訂單量為 74 億美元，總體積壓金額為 500 億美元。因此對產品的需求確實很強勁。

That said, we have had some headwinds. We've had some inflation hitting some fixed-price programs. We've had a handful of challenging fixed-price development contracts that have been a bit of a drag.

也就是說，我們遇到了一些阻力。我們的一些固定價格計劃受到了一些通貨膨脹的影響。我們有一些具有挑戰性的固定價格開發合同，這有點拖累我們。

That said, we have had some productivity gains in certain areas. As you might suspect, those mature, higher-volume programs. We have had some efficiency gains by leveraging supply chain with larger buys. And as we look forward, the supplier volume is growing. Labor attrition rates are decreasing, frankly, stabilizing. So those are some very positive signs as kind of we look forward in the defense business.

也就是說，我們在某些​​領域的生產力有所提升。正如您可能懷疑的那樣，那些成熟的、大批量的程序。透過利用供應鏈進行更大的採購，我們獲得了一些效率提升。正如我們所期待的，供應商數量正在成長。坦白說，勞動力流失率正在下降，並且趨於穩定。這些都是一些非常正面的跡象，也是我們對國防業務的期望。

And I will say we just need to get through key milestones on those fixed price development contracts. We've talked about those on several calls now. And we've got some key milestones coming up over the next 12 months or so that we've got to hit and get these programs through those milestones and then, ultimately, sold off.

我想說的是，我們只需要完成這些固定價格開發合約的關鍵里程碑。我們現在已經在幾次電話中討論過這些問題。我們在接下來的 12 個月左右即將實現一些關鍵的里程碑，因此我們必須實現這些計劃並通過這些里程碑，然後最終出售。

Thanks, Chris. Let me just pick up on that where you left off. We definitely did provide a consolidated view. You're looking at margins around the midpoint, a little bit north of 12% when you get into 2025.

謝謝，克里斯。讓我從你上次停下的地方繼續說起。我們確實提供了綜合視圖。當你進入 2025 年時，你會看到中點左右的利潤率，略高於 12%。

I think as we look at the backlog and the mix of what we see the sales shifting to between now and then, we talked about this year being sort of the low point of our mix, more domestically focused, that we see that increasing over the next couple of years to be a bit heavier on the foreign side, not surprising given the demand signals that we're seeing. So those are going to be the key drivers that get us heading in that direction.

我認為，當我們查看積壓訂單以及我們看到的銷售從現在到那時的變化的組合時，我們談到今年是我們組合的低點，更加關注國內，我們看到這一年的增長考慮到我們所看到的需求訊號，未來幾年外國方面的壓力會更大一些，這並不奇怪。因此，這些將成為推動我們朝這個方向前進的關鍵驅動力。

What we do know is that we have a really large backlog, $50 billion, on the defense side right now and expect that to continue to grow. And we're focused on executing as we transition the number of programs, as Chris was alluding to, from early production to full rate production and those programs mature.

我們所知道的是，我們現在在國防方面有大量的積壓訂單，價值 500 億美元，並且預計這一數量將繼續增長。正如克里斯所提到的，隨著項目數量的轉變，我們專注於執行，從早期生產到全速生產，並且這些項目已經成熟。

So we know the formula for driving productivity. We have seen some challenges this year. And I think on the development programs, we'll see that happen over the next 12 months, but that's the story longer term.

所以我們知道提高生產力的公式。今年我們看到了一些挑戰。我認為在開發計劃方面，我們將在未來 12 個月內看到這種情況的發生，但這是一個長期的故事。

Is that -- is the rate of expansion in '24 and '25 similar, Neil? Or is it more weighted to '25?

尼爾，24 年和 25 年的擴張速度是否相似？或者它的權重是否更偏向「25」？

It's going to be more weighted to '25. We've got, as you know, a growing backlog here, but that will play out in sales probably later next year and accelerating through 2025.

它將更加權重到'25。如您所知，我們的積壓訂單不斷增加，但這可能會在明年稍後的銷售中反映出來，並在 2025 年加速成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

Neil, maybe on the GTF. Looking forward, you're about saying endeavor on something that looks pretty challenging in terms of 45% of the GTF-powered A320 fleet on the ground and managing all of the customers and their expectations and your own execution.

尼爾，也許是 GTF 的成員。展望未來，您所說的努力看起來相當具有挑戰性，因為地面上有 45% 的由 GTF 驅動的 A320 機隊，並管理所有客戶及其期望和您自己的執行力。

I'm wondering, could you just lay out sort of the biggest risks in your screen that you're looking at? Is it part availability? Is it discovery of what incremental work might happen when you open up these engines? Is it this MRO network coming online? There's just a lot balancing and maybe just the prioritization of the risk register would be helpful.

我想知道，您能否在螢幕上列出您正在查看的最大風險？是否有零件供應？是發現當你打開這些引擎時可能會發生什麼增量工作？是這個MRO網路上線了嗎？需要進行大量的平衡，也許風險登記冊的優先順序會有所幫助。

Yes. Myles, this is Chris. Maybe I'll kick it off. The single, I think, biggest lever that we've got here, and you kind of alluded to it, is MRO output. I mean obviously, it's a challenging time for the customers. There's going to be a fair amount of the aircraft on the ground, but we've got to accelerate MRO output. And the key parts of those are capacity and material flow.

是的。邁爾斯，這是克里斯。也許我會把它踢掉。我認為，我們在這裡擁有的最大的槓桿，你也提到過，就是 MRO 輸出。我的意思是，顯然，這對客戶來說是一個充滿挑戰的時期。地面上將會有相當數量的飛機，但我們必須加快 MRO 產出。其中的關鍵部分是產能和物料流。

On the capacity side, you heard about the expansions that we're doing, both within the Pratt shops and across the network. In terms of material flow, you've heard us talk about this before. Our objective is to put in full-life HPT and HPC disks at these shop visits, and we've got to go continue to ramp those up.

在容量方面，您聽說過我們正在普拉特商店內和網路上進行的擴展。就物質流而言，您之前已經聽過我們談論過這一點。我們的目標是在這些車間存取中安裝全壽命的 HPT 和 HPC 磁碟，並且我們必須繼續提高這些效能。

Again, that ramp-up is well underway and progressing in key process steps like the powder metal production, forging and heat treat. Investments have already been made, and that capacity is in place. And then for more downstream processes, like sonic inspection and machining, we're accelerating capacity there to make sure that we can meet this demand. And so some of this performed by Pratt and our partners and some by third parties.

同樣，這種成長正在順利進行，並在粉末金屬生產、鍛造和熱處理等關鍵製程步驟中取得進展。投資已經完成，能力也已到位。然後，對於更多的下游工藝，例如聲波檢測和加工，我們正在加快產能，以確保我們能夠滿足這一需求。其中一些由普拉特和我們的合作夥伴執行，一些由第三方執行。

But again, very, very focused on the inspection capacity and the machining capacity. But at the end of the day, MRO output is what's going to support our customers and ultimately take down the AOGs and, therefore, take down the penalties we're going to have to pay to our customers.

但同樣，非常非常關注檢查能力和加工能力。但歸根結底，MRO 產出將支援我們的客戶並最終取消 AOG，從而減少我們必須向客戶支付的罰款。

Just a quick follow-up. Is that 19 number in 2025 of MRO shops different than your target earlier this year? I think it's the same. And so maybe just what has changed in terms of MRO network expansion?

只是快速跟進。 2025 年 MRO 商店數量為 19 家與您今年早些時候的目標不同嗎？我認為是一樣的。那麼 MRO 網路擴展方面可能發生了什麼變化？

Yes. Fair enough. It is the same, but we've accelerated as best we can some of these investments. I mean they were in our plan. We've accelerated as much of that spend as we can. And again, it's bringing on the inspection capacity into the MRO shops. That's a key to unlocking sort of the MRO throughput that I talked about.

是的。很公平。情況是一樣的，但我們已盡最大努力加速其中一些投資。我的意思是他們在我們的計劃中。我們已盡可能加快了支出。再次，它為 MRO 車間帶來了檢查能力。這是解鎖我談到的 MRO 吞吐量的關鍵。

And then just beyond that for a second, Myles, and you heard us talk earlier about the 35-or-so day turnaround times on those project visits. And again, we know those aren't the preponderance of the visits we're going to get. But there's a lot of learnings that go on and a lot of learning curve that gets tackled when we're doing these things. So it's how quickly can we tear down, inspection limits, repairs, test cell time, literally every part through every gate in MRO, taking time out and being more efficient and putting more resources in those areas.

然後，邁爾斯，您剛剛聽到我們談論了這些項目訪問的 35 天左右的周轉時間。再說一次，我們知道這些並不是我們將要進行的訪問的主要部分。但是，當我們做這些事情時，我們需要學習很多東西，並且需要解決很多學習曲線。因此，問題在於我們能夠以多快的速度拆卸、檢查限制、維修、測試單元時間，實際上是透過MRO 中每個大門的每個零件，抽出時間並提高效率，並在這些領域投入更多資源。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Stallard of Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Rob Stallard。

This might be a question for Chris. Following up on the powder metal issue. When you spoke about this in September, you seemed pretty convinced that the issue would not be a problem on the A220, the E2 and the V2500. But it does sound like there is something going on there now, although you said it's not significant. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on how the inspections have progressed on those engines.

這可能是克里斯的問題。跟進粉末金屬問題。當您在 9 月談到這一點時，您似乎非常確信該問題在 A220、E2 和 V2500 上不會成為問題。但聽起來現在確實發生了一些事情，儘管你說這並不重要。所以我想知道你能否詳細說明一下這些引擎的檢查進展如何。

Sure, Rob. Yes, thanks for the question. So I think we had sort of telegraphed on the last calls were going through our analysis is that those fleets would be far more manageable in terms of the impact. And while we will have inspections and life limits on the 1500 and 1900, as we said, they will largely fall within the shop visit forecast we have today. The maintenance intervals on those, frankly, are shorter than on the 1100. And so that's why many of these life limits and inspections fit within those plans.

當然，羅布。是的，謝謝你的提問。因此，我認為我們在最後一次通話中透過我們的分析得知，就影響而言，這些機隊將更容易管理。正如我們所說，雖然我們將對 1500 和 1900 進行檢查並設定壽命限制，但它們將在很大程度上符合我們今天的商店訪問預測。坦白說，這些設備的維護間隔比 1100 短。這就是為什麼許多壽命限制和檢查都符合這些計劃的原因。

On the V2500, again, we continued down that inspection -- accelerated inspection path we've had in place for about 2 years now. We're about halfway through that fleet. And as we continue to do those inspections and learn more and analyze the data from those inspections, we're able to pinpoint certain engines based on sort of their profile, parts they've got in them, thrust, other characteristics that we've targeted for accelerated inspections.

在 V2500 上，我們再次繼續進行檢查——我們已經實施了大約 2 年的加速檢查路徑。我們已經完成了該艦隊的一半。當我們繼續進行這些檢查並了解更多資訊並分析這些檢查的數據時，我們能夠根據某些引擎的輪廓、其中的零件、推力以及我們掌握的其他特徵來精確定位某些引擎。加快檢查的目標。

But again, I think that's very manageable. That's a total of about 100 or less shop visits stretched out over 4 years. And again, those are largely going to be project visit work scopes. And we've got a lot of experience on project visit work scopes on the V2500. Those are in a 40- to 45-day turnaround time. We've become very, very proficient at those. So again, that's why we're calling those very manageable and will not have significant financial or operational impact.

但我再次認為這是非常容易管理的。這相當於 4 年內總共到店 100 次或更少。再說一次，這些很大程度上將是專案訪問的工作範圍。我們在 V2500 的專案訪問工作範圍方面擁有豐富的經驗。這些的周轉時間為 40 到 45 天。我們在這些方面已經變得非常非常熟練。再說一次，這就是為什麼我們稱這些為非常易於管理，並且不會產生重大的財務或營運影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe if you could just walk us through cash, $1.6 billion generated year-to-date, $4.8 billion for the year. How do you think about the biggest drivers on a segment basis as you head into the final quarter of 2023? And then just given stepped-up GTF payments next year, what are the puts and takes there? And then if you don't mind, I just have to ask on the $10 billion ASR. Why announce it now and not derisk some of the MRO output risk on the GTF?

也許您可以向我們介紹一下現金，今年迄今已產生 16 億美元，全年為 48 億美元。進入 2023 年最後一個季度，您如何看待細分市場中最大的驅動因素？然後，明年 GTF 付款將逐步增加，看跌期權和賣出期權是多少？如果您不介意的話，我只需詢問 100 億美元的 ASR。為什麼現在宣布而不消除 GTF 上的一些 MRO 輸出風險？

All right. Thanks, Sheila. Let me start with what we need to do on free cash flow. So we were pleased to see $2.8 billion of free cash flow for the quarter. Clearly, strong and in line with the trajectory we need to see for the full year.

好的。謝謝，希拉。讓我從我們需要對自由現金流做的事情開始。因此，我們很高興看到本季自由現金流達到 28 億美元。顯然，強勁並且符合我們全年需要看到的軌跡。

And as you look at the fourth quarter, there's really 2 major parts that are going to drive getting to the $4.8 billion. The first is clearly operating profit, and we feel comfortable with that given the ranges we just put out there. And we need to see about $2 billion -- a little over $2 billion of working capital improvement in the fourth quarter. And I would break that down into about 3 buckets, about $500 million of inventory improvement. Again, I think given the demand signals we're seeing and the growth we'll see in sales in the fourth quarter, we see that as achievable and manageable.

縱觀第四季度，實際上有兩個主要因素將推動營收達到 48 億美元。第一個顯然是營業利潤，考慮到我們剛剛公佈的範圍，我們對此感到滿意。我們需要看到第四季營運資本改善約 20 億美元——略高於 20 億美元。我會將其分為大約 3 個部分，大約 5 億美元的庫存改善。同樣，我認為考慮到我們所看到的需求訊號以及我們將在第四季度看到的銷售成長，我們認為這是可以實現和管理的。

We are expecting some significant advances and achievement of milestones on the defense side. So when you think about net liabilities and advances on contractual -- long-term contracts, that's about $1.2 billion. So that's a big piece of the fourth quarter. And then the rest really is the timing of disbursements that I would call normal in the course of business year.

我們期待在國防方面取得一些重大進展並取得里程碑式的成就。因此，如果考慮淨負債和長期合約預付款，則約為 12 億美元。這是第四季的一個重要部分。然後剩下的就是我稱之為業務年度正常的付款時間。

So a lot to do, but we have good line of sight to those things as we look to closing out the year. I'm not going to get into specifics about next year or the year after, other than to say we do see free cash flow growth in '24. And we'll come back in January and provide more of a road map as to how you get there.

有很多事情要做，但在我們期待結束這一年的時候，我們對這些事情有很好的視野。我不會詳細討論明年或後年的情況，只是說我們確實會在 24 年看到自由現金流的成長。我們將在一月份回來並提供更多關於如何實現這一目標的路線圖。

And Greg, do you want to talk about the ASR?

Greg，你想談談 ASR 嗎？

Yes, sure. Sheila, the question around the ASR timing, I think it's a relevant question. And I would tell you, we had a fulsome discussion with the Board about the timing of the ASR.

是的，當然。 Sheila，關於 ASR 時間的問題，我認為這是一個相關的問題。我想告訴您，我們與董事會就 ASR 的時間表進行了充分的討論。

And what convinced the management team and the Board that it was the right time is our confidence in the powder metal resolution and having bound the financial impact of that. We saw this as an opportune time to double down on the stock. And again, if you think about it, we bought $2.6 billion back year-to-date. This is another $10 billion at what I believe to be a significant discount to intrinsic value.

讓管理團隊和董事會相信現在是正確的時機是我們對粉末金屬決議的信心以及限制其財務影響的信心。我們認為這是加倍買入該股的好時機。再說一次，如果你想一想，我們今年迄今已回購了 26 億美元。這又是 100 億美元，我認為這與內在價值相比有很大折扣。

And this is the time to buy. And I think we're doubling down in terms of our confidence, confidence in the future of RTX but also confidence that we really do have our arms around the powder metal issue.

現在正是買入的時候。我認為我們的信心加倍，對 RTX 未來的信心，以及我們確實解決粉末金屬問題的信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

When you look back on this situation, right, I mean my understanding is it first kind of creeped up, call it, the 2015 time frame. And here we are today. What are the lessons learned, like on a go-forward basis? Because perhaps a growing concern, there will be new engines in the future. What are the big takeaways to not have this happen again?

當你回顧這種情況時，對吧，我的意思是，我的理解是，它首先有點爬行，稱之為 2015 年時間框架。今天我們就到這裡了。吸取了哪些教訓，例如在前進的基礎上？因為也許人們越來越擔心，未來將會有新的引擎。為了避免這種情況再次發生，有哪些重大要點？

Ron, this is Chris. Yes, our -- the incident that led to all of this was in March of 2020. And it wasn't until after we went through sort of a rigorous records review and did all of the investigation and the metallurgical analysis did actually come to realize this was an incredibly rare defect. We hadn't seen it before. And then we were able to go back and trace it to 2015.

榮恩，這是克里斯。是的，導致這一切的事件發生在 2020 年 3 月。直到我們進行了嚴格的記錄審查並進行了所有調查和冶金分析後，我們才真正意識到這是一個極其罕見的缺陷。我們以前沒見過。然後我們就可以回溯到2015年。

But again, we didn't have that -- the data in hand to make that determination till, again, much later into 2020. And if you just sort of step back and say, "Okay. Once you figure that out, what would you guys do about it?" Well, we made a number of systemic changes, perhaps powder metal processing facility, both manufacturing process changes and inspection techniques. We've gone through a rigorous safety risk assessment, I think you've heard us describe before, which incorporated all of the learnings from all of our inspection data into our models right across every one of our programs. You've seen us kind of go through those one by one as we prioritize the most impacted fleets. But again, it gets right across every single engine program that we've got.

但同樣，我們手頭上沒有數據來做出決定，直到 2020 年很久以後。如果你退後一步說：“好吧。一旦你弄清楚了，會發生什麼？你們怎麼辦？”嗯，我們做了一些系統性的改變，也許是粉末金屬加工設施，製造流程和檢驗技術的改變。我們已經進行了嚴格的安全風險評估，我想您之前已經聽過我們的描述，它將所有檢查數據中的所有知識融入我們每個項目的模型中。您已經看到我們在優先考慮受影響最嚴重的機隊時一一進行了檢查。但同樣，它適用於我們擁有的每一個引擎程式。

And then, of course, we've responded by developing comprehensive fleet management plans that have a combination of the enhanced inspections that we've developed and the life limits on the parts. I would say maybe more broadly and unrelated to the powder metal situation, we've continued to leverage outside resources and expertise. We've got a product safety review committee, comprised of outside industry experts and veterans that come in, look at our key engineering processes, do site visits, interview senior management and then below trying to understand culture and processes and what we can do better, and they make recommendations, and we implement those. And that's something we do on a regular basis. Again, unrelated to the powder metal, but we're not afraid to go leverage outside resources to give us another perspective.

當然，我們的應對措施是製定全面的車隊管理計劃，其中結合了我們制定的強化檢查和零件壽命限制。我想說的是，也許更廣泛地說，與粉末金屬的情況無關，我們繼續利用外部資源和專業知識。我們有一個產品安全審查委員會，由外部行業專家和資深人士組成，他們會檢查我們的關鍵工程流程，進行現場考察，採訪高級管理層，然後嘗試了解文化和流程以及我們可以做得更好的地方，他們提出建議，我們實施這些建議。這是我們經常做的事情。同樣，與粉末金屬無關，但我們並不害怕利用外部資源為我們提供另一個視角。

And I mean does that mean kind of going forward, in just sort of the nuts and bolts of Pratt, it's just going to require some more investment in, I don't know, infrastructure or engineering or whatever to just kind of make sure everything is where it should be?

我的意思是，這是否意味著繼續前進，就普拉特的具體細節而言，它只是需要更多的投資，我不知道，基礎設施或工程或其他什麼，以確保一切它應該在哪裡？

Well, we're going to continue to invest, Ron, in automation for sure, both in terms of manufacturing process and our quality system. I'll tell you, we're also making investments in machine learning so that we can look at all of this -- the thousands and thousands of inspection records and data that we've got in-house to help us better identify anomalies, get out ahead of issues before they turn into something.

好吧，羅恩，我們肯定會繼續在自動化方面進行投資，無論是在製造流程還是在我們的品質系統方面。我告訴你，我們還在機器學習方面進行投資，以便我們可以查看所有這些 - 我們內部擁有成千上萬的檢查記錄和數據，以幫助我們更好地識別異常情況，在問題變成問題之前就先解決它。

Unfortunately, that has an impact on the fleet and on our customers. So we're going to continue to invest in those areas. We've had those investment plans in place. We're going to continue to accelerate those, again, all part of the modernization of our footprint and how we do things better, faster, leaner.

不幸的是，這對機隊和我們的客戶產生了影響。因此，我們將繼續在這些領域進行投資。我們已經制定了這些投資計劃。我們將繼續加快我們足跡現代化的所有部分，以及我們如何更好、更快、更精簡地做事。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Maybe a small bundle here of questions about cash. I mean given what the consensus is next year, $5.2 billion, you're buying back $10 billion of stock, or you're accelerating stock repurchase. I mean is it pretty fair to assume that Street is not going to be disappointed in what you guys have to say in January regarding cash?

也許這裡有一小堆關於現金的問題。我的意思是，考慮到明年的共識是 52 億美元，你將回購 100 億美元的股票，或者你正在加速股票回購。我的意思是，可以公平地假設 Street 不會對你們一月份關於現金的言論感到失望嗎？

And then when we move out to 2025, and we think just about the impact, the change in R&D and the change in the interest expense that you'll have from the share repo, how should we be thinking about the 2025 target versus what you told us last month?

然後，當我們轉向 2025 年時，我們只考慮股票回購帶來的影響、研發變化以及利息支出的變化，我們應該如何考慮 2025 年目標以及您的目標上個月告訴我們的？

Okay. Seth, thanks for the question. We're not going to get ahead of 2024, but we do see free cash flow stepping up. We are comfortable with our $7.5 billion 2025 free cash flow target that we've talked about.

好的。賽斯，謝謝你的提問。我們不會提前到 2024 年，但我們確實看到自由現金流增加。我們對我們討論過的 2025 年 75 億美元自由現金流目標感到滿意。

And as you think about what is going to be higher interest and an increased benefit from the R&D impact, those will just about offset in 2025. And so that's why, today, I feel comfortable staying with a $7.5 billion target for 2025. Of course, there's a lot of time between now and then. But those are the 2 moving pieces we see today.

當你考慮什麼會帶來更高的興趣以及研發影響帶來的更多收益時，這些將在 2025 年被抵消。這就是為什麼今天我對 2025 年 75 億美元的目標保持滿意的原因。當然，從現在到那時還有很多時間。但這是我們今天看到的兩個令人感動的部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格（Kristine Liwag）。

So maybe moving to a defense question. The White House is requesting $106 billion in supplemental spending for a number of national security priorities, which includes over $50 billion in investment for the U.S. defense industrial base.

那麼也許可以轉向防守問題。白宮要求為多項國家安全優先事項提供 1,060 億美元的補充支出，其中包括為美國國防工業基礎投資超過 500 億美元。

Looking at this request, you've got equipment for Ukraine, air and missile defense for Israel and replenishment of stockpile for both. And this seems to fit quite nicely with the Raytheon defense portfolio. So how much of this opportunity is addressable to the company? And if the dollars are appropriated, what would be the earliest you could see this convert to revenue?

看看這個請求，你已經為烏克蘭提供了設備，為以色列提供了防空和飛彈防禦系統，並為兩者補充了庫存。這似乎非常適合雷神公司的防禦產品組合。那麼，這個機會有多少是公司可以利用的呢？如果資金被撥款，最早什麼時候可以看到這筆資金轉化為收入？

Kristine, let me start on that. So I think I mentioned earlier in the conversation, we've seen about $3 billion of orders so far related to Ukraine replenishment. And that's really the replenishing U.S. war stocks. We expect another $4 billion of orders in the next 2 years.

克里斯汀，讓我開始吧。所以我想我之前在談話中提到過，到目前為止，我們已經看到了大約 30 億美元的與烏克蘭補給相關的訂單。這實際上是補充美國的戰爭庫存。我們預計未來 2 年內還會有 40 億美元的訂單。

And most of that will play out over the next 24 to 36 months in terms of delivery. So you won't see a big revenue pop even next year from this. As we think about this next tranche, the President's $100-plus billion request, which is more than $40 billion for Ukraine, what you're going to see is the same things that we have been seeing but in much higher quantities.

其中大部分將在未來 24 至 36 個月內交付。因此，即使明年你也不會看到收入大幅成長。當我們考慮下一部分時，即總統提出的 100 多億美元的要求，即為烏克蘭提供的超過 400 億美元，您將看到的與我們一直看到的相同，但數量要高得多。

So obviously, NASAM Systems, which is the short-range air defense system, and the MRM munitions that we're using there, we're going to see those orders pick up, we would think significantly. The same is true with the Patriot air defense system. Again, those are GEM-T missiles that we supply for that. Those are in short supply today. So again, a big ramp there. But you are also going to see other weapon systems come into play, specifically around countering the unmanned air vehicles. And we have systems today like the Coyote, which is very effective in terms of short-range dealing with these unmanned air vehicles.

顯然，NASAM 系統公司，即短程防空系統，以及我們在那裡使用的 MRM 彈藥，我們將看到這些訂單的增加，我們會認為這一點很重要。愛國者防空系統也是如此。同樣，這些是我們為此提供的 GEM-T 飛彈。如今這些產品供不應求。再說一次，那裡有一個大坡道。但你也會看到其他武器系統發揮作用，特別是在對抗無人機方面。我們今天擁有像 Coyote 這樣的系統，它在短程處理這些無人機方面非常有效。

So again, I think really across the entire Raytheon portfolio, you're going to see a benefit of this restocking, on top of what we think is going to be an increase in the DoD top line. Again, as we continue to replenish war stocks and also replenish some of the fleet in the Pacific. So that's SM-2s, SM-3s and other munitions that are really a huge part of this backlog that we've got today.

所以，我再次認為，在整個雷神公司的產品組合中，除了我們認為國防部收入將會增加之外，你還會看到這次補貨的好處。再次，我們繼續補充戰爭庫存，並補充太平洋上的一些艦隊。因此，SM-2、SM-3 和其他彈藥確實是我們今天積壓的重要組成部分。

And how do you think about the margin profile of these incremental opportunities? Are these new contracts margin-accretive?

您如何看待這些增量機會的利潤狀況？這些新合約是否能增加保證金？

I would -- no, actually, I wouldn't say they're margin-accretive nor would I say they're detrimental to margins. These are going on a kind of normal cost type program, right? So you're talking about margins, 10%, 11%, 12%. And again, these are well-known in terms of the cost of these systems. We've been producing them for years. So we know what the costs are. And again, I think -- again, it's helpful to overall margins, but it's not hugely accretive.

我會——不，實際上，我不會說它們會增加利潤，也不會說它們會損害利潤。這些正在進行一種正常成本類型的計劃，對嗎？所以你談論的是利潤率，10%、11%、12%。同樣，這些系統的成本也是眾所周知的。我們多年來一直在生產它們。所以我們知道成本是多少。我再次認為，這對整體利潤率有所幫助，但並沒有帶來巨大的增值。

Again, I think Neil, 10% to 12% is kind of the sweet spot.

尼爾，我再次認為 10% 到 12% 是最佳點。

I think that's exactly right. These are mature programs that we've got a lot of history on. It's all about getting the supply chain ramped up to deal with the increased production that we expect.

我認為這是完全正確的。這些都是成熟的計劃，我們有很多歷史。這一切都是為了加強供應鏈以應對我們預期的產量增加。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Akers of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的馬特·阿克斯​​。

I guess maybe just to clarify, the Section 174, the $500 million benefit, is part of that recovery from the 2022 payment? And I guess how should we think about that sort of carrying forward that benefit into 2024?

我想也許只是為了澄清一下，第 174 條規定的 5 億美元福利是 2022 年付款收回的一部分嗎？我想我們應該如何考慮將這個好處延續到 2024 年？

Thanks. That's a good question. Yes, some of that is, in fact, the recovery of the 2022 overpayments, if you will. We were able to file our tax return on a basis that assumed deductibility of these cost-plus R&D contracts.

謝謝。這是個好問題。是的，如果你願意的話，事實上，其中一部分是 2022 年超額付款的恢復。我們能夠在假定這些成本加成研發合約可扣除的基礎上提交報稅表。

What will happen, though, is it will be a little bit of a headwind next year because we'll get a little bit more cash back this year in the form of making lower estimated tax payments. And then next year, we'll start to bake that into our next year's estimated tax payments and filings.

不過，明年將會出現一些逆風，因為今年我們將以較低的估計納稅額的形式獲得更多的現金回饋。然後明年，我們將開始將其納入明年的估計納稅和申報中。

So that's how that will play out. If you kind of look at it over a multiyear period of time, it's about 40% of what we previously were deferring and amortizing. So if you kind of stretch that through 2026, that's about $1.7 billion of incremental goodness in free cash flow over that period.

這就是結果。如果你從多年的時間來看，它大約是我們之前推遲和攤銷的 40%。因此，如果將這一趨勢延長到 2026 年，那麼在此期間，自由現金流將增加約 17 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的 Doug Harned。

Chris, when you talked about the -- on the GTF on the project business, I mean, 35 days sounds like a very short number. When you look forward, before you had talked about removal to return time of 250 to 300 days, kind of a peak level of AOGs in H1 of 600 to 650. Now that you're looking at this process in more detail, can you give us a sense of how any of that may have changed? And then also, if you're unable to do the replacements of disks and fibers and so forth in the short term, presumably, that's an earlier revisit than you would have liked before. How does that affect your customers and the way you're thinking about the economics?

Chris，當您談到專案業務的 GTF 時，我的意思是，35 天聽起來是一個非常短的數字。當您展望未來時，之前您談到了從 250 到 300 天的移除到返回時間，上半年 AOG 的峰值水平為 600 到 650。現在您正在更詳細地了解這個過程，您能否給出我們是否知道這一切可能發生了怎樣的變化？而且，如果您無法在短期內更換磁碟和光纖等，那麼這可能是比您之前希望的更早的重新訪問。這對您的客戶以及您對經濟的思考方式有何影響？

Yes. Good questions, Doug. So the reason I mentioned the early -- very early sort of handful of project visits and how we've done on turnaround times is honestly just to show people that we are incredibly focused on taking minutes, hours, days out of this. And that can translate to the larger-scope shop visits that we're going to face.

是的。好問題，道格。因此，我之所以提到早期——非常早期的一些專案訪問以及我們在周轉時間方面的表現，老實說只是為了向人們表明，我們非常專注於從這件事中抽出幾分鐘、幾小時、幾天。這可以轉化為我們將要面對的更大規模的商店參觀。

And the organization is incredibly focused on literally every gate within that process, including taking time out of the test cell process. But right now, Doug, those key assumptions that you just laid out, the wing-to-wing 250 to 300, the peak AOGs, those are the assumptions. Those are what's baked in to the financial impact that we talked about here. And we're doing everything that we can to go improve upon those. And as I said earlier, MRO output to us is the linchpin on that. And so that's kind of where the organization's focus is, Doug, and that's where we've got to get better each and every day.

該組織非常關注該流程中的每個環節，包括從測試單元流程中抽出時間。但現在，道格，你剛剛提出的那些關鍵假設，250 到 300 的翼對翼，最大 AOG，這些都是假設。這些就是我們在這裡討論的財務影響的一部分。我們正在盡一切努力來改進這些。正如我之前所說，MRO 輸出給我們是關鍵。所以這就是組織的重點所在，道格，這就是我們每天都必須變得更好的地方。

To your point about the new full-life disks. Yes, our plan today is to put those in at OE first in the first quarter of the year and then starting in MRO in the second quarter of the year at each of these shop visits. To the extent that the ramp-up and the output isn't where it needs to be on those, we're not going to waste the induction slot, Doug. The engines will come in. They'll get an inspection.

關於新的全壽命磁碟的觀點。是的，我們今天的計劃是在今年第一季首先將這些投入到 OE 中，然後在每年第二季每次造訪工廠時開始進行 MRO。如果斜坡上升和輸出沒有達到需要的程度，我們不會浪費感應槽，道格。引擎將進來。他們將接受檢查。

And to your point, they'll have to then come back in at a 2,800 to 3,800 cycle reinspect, depending on the thrust of the engine, which is why it's so critical for us to continue this ramp-up in powder metal forgings so that when the engines leave the shop for these visits, they have got the longest time on wing they can have, and we don't see these back in our MRO shops during this period because it will add just more congestion.

就您而言，他們必須根據引擎的推力，在 2,800 至 3,800 次循環後重新檢查，這就是為什麼我們繼續提高粉末金屬鍛件的產量如此重要，以便當引擎離開車間進行這些訪問時，它們已經獲得了最長的飛行時間，在此期間我們不會看到它們回到我們的MRO 車間，因為這只會增加更多的擁塞。

And then if I may, one of the frustrations that I've heard out there is you've taken the original tranche, the first tranche off in September, but airlines haven't -- seem to be somewhat in the dark on the next set of engines that need to come off wing, and when that impact, we would -- what has taken so long in being able to help them know exactly what the impact and timing will be?

然後，如果可以的話，我聽到的一個令人沮喪的事情是，你已經拿走了最初的部分，第一部分是在 9 月份，但航空公司卻沒有——似乎對下一個部分有些茫然。一組需要從機翼上取下的發動機，當發生撞擊時，我們會——花了這麼長時間才能夠幫助他們準確地知道撞擊和時間會是什麼？

We're actually having those discussions, Doug. I've been part of many of them. Again, customer by customer, looking at their engines by serial number. Again, because you've got to look at the cycle times on those and bounce them off against the fleet management plan, so it's a rigorous, thorough process, but we're having those conversations with customers so they understand their specific impacts.

我們實際上正在進行這些討論，道格。我曾是其中許多人的一員。同樣，逐個客戶，透過序號查看他們的引擎。同樣，因為您必須查看這些週期時間，並將其與車隊管理計劃進行對比，所以這是一個嚴格、徹底的過程，但我們正在與客戶進行這些對話，以便他們了解其具體影響。

As we said back on the September call, the lion's share of these incremental shop visits that we're going to have, the 600 to 700 in that '23 to '26, but 2/3 of those are '23 and relatively early in '24. That's what causes that bow wave, Doug, that peak of 650 AOGs. And I think we talked earlier about when we're going to provide some of those service bulletins and the ADs that are going to follow on. So those communications are happening, but you're going to see that impact early in '24.

正如我們在 9 月的電話會議上所說，我們將增加的商店訪問量中的大部分是 23 世紀到 26 年間的 600 到 700 人，但其中 2/3 是 23 世紀以及相對較早的時期' 24。這就是導致弓波的原因，道格，650 AOG 的峰值。我想我們之前討論過我們何時將提供一些服務公告以及後續的廣告。所以這些溝通正在發生，但你會在 24 年初看到這種影響。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯·赫伯特。

Chris, I wanted to follow up on that comment regarding your customer conversations. Can you provide any more sort of granularity on where you are in those conversations? And obviously, you've got -- it sounds like incremental confidence in the ability to sort of bracket the risk around these. With all the uncertainty, still the sort of timing on the shop visits, how are those conversations going? And just give us any sort of metrics around what gives you that incremental confidence, I guess, on the customer side.

克里斯，我想跟進有關您的客戶對話的評論。您能否提供更多關於您在這些對話中所處位置的詳細資訊？顯然，你已經——聽起來像是對圍繞這些風險進行排序的能力越來越有信心。考慮到所有的不確定性，仍然是商店訪問的時間安排，這些對話進行得怎麼樣？我想，只要提供我們任何能夠帶給您增量信心的指標，就可以了。

Sure, Ken. Thanks for the question. So the focus, as you might imagine, over the last several months is walking our customers through the safety risk analysis that they understand that and what we're doing to ensure the continued safe operation of the fleet, then understanding the fleet management plans, cyclic limits, the inspection intervals and its impact on their specific fleets.

當然，肯。謝謝你的提問。因此，正如您可能想像的那樣，過去幾個月的重點是引導我們的客戶進行安全風險分析，讓他們了解這一點以及我們正在採取的措施來確保車隊的持續安全運營，然後了解車隊管理計劃，循環限制、檢查間隔及其對特定車隊的影響。

We're going to have certain customers, again, that are going to be more impacted than others just by virtue of their size, their reliance on the GTF. Again, it differs by customer. The conversations, as you might imagine, they're difficult. Customers understand what we're doing from a safety risk perspective and think we're doing the right thing, but they're certainly not happy with the net effect, and they've not been happy with the fleet health, even prior to powder metal and our output on MRO and getting them the spare assets and the engines in our shops that they need.

我們將再次擁有某些客戶，由於他們的規模以及對 GTF 的依賴，他們將比其他客戶受到更大的影響。同樣，它因客戶而異。正如您可能想像的那樣，對話很困難。客戶從安全風險的角度理解我們正在做的事情，並認為我們正在做正確的事情，但他們肯定對最終效果不滿意，而且他們對車隊的健康狀況不滿意，甚至在粉末之前也是如此金屬和我們在MRO 上的產出，並為他們提供他們需要的備用資產和我們商店中的引擎。

And so those are obviously difficult conversations, as you might imagine, Ken. And we're having them with each customer individually as we go through and tailor their support packages. Again, some are more impacted than others. But those conversations are ongoing, and they will continue into the early part of the year once people truly understand a fleet-by-fleet, customer-by-customer impact and the changes they're going to have to make to their flights, their network and whatnot. So those conversations are happening, will progress early into next year.

所以，正如你可能想像的那樣，肯，這些顯然是艱難的對話。當我們審查和定制他們的支援包時，我們會單獨與每個客戶聯繫。同樣，有些人比其他人受到的影響更大。但這些對話仍在繼續，一旦人們真正了解各個機隊、各個客戶的影響以及他們將不得不對航班、他們的服務做出的改變，這些對話將持續到今年年初。網路之類的。因此，這些對話正在進行中，並將持續到明年初。

That does conclude the Q&A portion of our call. I would now like to turn the call back to Greg Hayes for closing remarks.

我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給格雷格·海耶斯（Greg Hayes），讓其致閉幕詞。

Okay. Thanks, Latif, and thanks all for listening in today. As always, Jennifer and the IR team will be around to take your calls, and we look forward to seeing all of you in the coming weeks and months. Take care. Thank you.

好的。謝謝拉蒂夫，也謝謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，Jennifer 和 IR 團隊將隨時接聽您的電話，我們期待在未來幾週和幾個月內見到大家。小心。謝謝。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。