雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lisa, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到雷神科技 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。我叫麗莎，今天我將是你的接線員。提醒一下，正在錄製此會議以供重播。今天接聽電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官 Greg Hayes；尼爾·米奇爾，首席財務官；和投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Reed。

This call is being carried live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.

此電話會議在互聯網上進行現場直播，並且可以從 Raytheon Technologies 的網站 www.rtx.com 下載演示文稿。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding acquisitions, accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in the call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTC's SEC filings, including its Form 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談到持續經營的結果，不包括收購、會計調整和淨非經常性和/或管理層通常稱為其他重要項目的重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，電話中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。 RTC 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括其 8-K 表、10-Q 表和 10-K 表，詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素。 （操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給海耶斯先生。

All right. Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. 2021 was an important year for Raytheon Technologies. As we laid out our strategy at the beginning of last year, and that strategy, of course, is to drive top-line growth, margin expansion and robust free cash flows through 2025 and beyond, while at the same time, continuing to invest in our businesses and returning significant capital to shareowners.

好的。謝謝你，麗莎，大家早上好。星期二快樂。 2021 年對雷神科技來說是重要的一年。正如我們在去年初制定的戰略，當然，該戰略是在 2025 年及以後推動營收增長、利潤率擴張和強勁的自由現金流，同時繼續投資於我們的業務，並將大量資本返還給股東。

Our continued focus on operational excellence and program execution, along with our industry-leading technologies, positions us well to continue to capitalize on the commercial aerospace recovery and to grow our defense franchises. As you saw from our press release this morning, we delivered another solid quarter with strong full year financial results with both top and bottom-line growth and $5 billion of free cash flow. That's more than double of what we delivered in 2020 on a pro forma basis.

我們繼續專注於卓越運營和項目執行，以及我們行業領先的技術，使我們能夠繼續利用商業航空復甦並發展我們的國防特許經營權。正如您今天早上從我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們又交付了一個穩健的季度，全年財務業績強勁，營收和利潤均實現增長，自由現金流達 50 億美元。這是我們 2020 年預估交付量的兩倍多。

Our performance in 2021 gives us confidence in the long-term fundamentals of our businesses and that we're on track to deliver to the 2025 targets that we outlined last May at our investor conference.

我們在 2021 年的表現讓我們對我們業務的長期基本面充滿信心，並且我們有望實現去年 5 月在投資者會議上概述的 2025 年目標。

Before I turn to the highlights, let me first provide some comments on the current market environment. During the quarter, commercial air traffic remained resilient despite the Omicron variant with global available seat miles, ASMs, growing about 1% sequentially in Q4. That's reflecting a continued recovery in air traffic despite the typical seasonal trends. Here, in the U.S., passenger traffic through TSA checkpoints also remained steady at about 1.9 million passengers per day. That's up almost 125% versus the fourth quarter of 2020, a remarkable recovery.

在我轉向亮點之前，讓我首先對當前的市場環境發表一些評論。在本季度，儘管 Omicron 變體的全球可用座位里程 ASM 在第四季度環比增長了約 1%，但商業空中交通仍然保持彈性。這反映出儘管存在典型的季節性趨勢，但空中交通量仍在持續復甦。在美國，通過 TSA 檢查站的客流量也穩定在每天約 190 萬人次。與 2020 年第四季度相比增長了近 125%，這是一個顯著的複蘇。

On the defense side, we're pleased to see the President signed the bipartisan Defense Authorization bill into law at $740 billion. That's about $25 billion higher than the original Presidential request. And given the global threat environment, we continue to see strong demand internationally for our products and services. Our focused aerospace and defense portfolio, along with our $156 billion backlog gives us confidence in our ability to grow the business in 2022 and beyond.

在國防方面，我們很高興看到總統簽署了 7400 億美元的兩黨國防授權法案成為法律。這比總統最初的要求高出約 250 億美元。鑑於全球威脅環境，我們繼續看到國際上對我們的產品和服務的強勁需求。我們專注的航空航天和國防產品組合，以及我們 1560 億美元的積壓訂單，讓我們對我們在 2022 年及以後發展業務的能力充滿信心。

Okay. Turning to Slide 2, some highlights from the fourth quarter. As I said, we delivered strong financial performance in '21. Organic sales grew 1%, which is in line with our expectations, while adjusted EPS and free cash flow for the year were both above our initial expectations. And importantly, we saw margin expansion in all four of our businesses, with strong commercial aftermarket.

好的。轉到幻燈片 2，第四季度的一些亮點。正如我所說，我們在 21 年實現了強勁的財務業績。有機銷售額增長 1%，符合我們的預期，而全年調整後的每股收益和自由現金流均高於我們最初的預期。重要的是，我們看到我們所有四項業務的利潤率都在增長，商業售後市場也很強大。

Our defense backlog remained robust at over $63 billion, where RIS and RMD both ended the year with book-to-bills slightly above 1.0. In addition to several large awards earlier in the year, we also had several notable awards during the fourth quarter, including over $1.3 billion in classified bookings, plus over $670 million for the Electro-Optical Infrared awards at RIS as well as $730 million in Standard Missile-2 production awards at RMD.

我們的國防積壓訂單保持強勁，超過 630 億美元，其中 RIS 和 RMD 都以略高於 1.0 的訂單出貨比結束了這一年。除了今年早些時候獲得的幾項大獎外，我們在第四季度還獲得了多項重要獎項，包括超過 13 億美元的分類預訂、超過 6.7 億美元的 RIS 電光紅外獎以及 7.3 億美元的標準獎RMD 的 Missile-2 生產獎。

We also remain focused on operational excellence and program execution to drive structural cost reduction and productivity in our operations. In 2021, we achieved about $760 million in incremental cost synergies from the RTX merger, bringing us to over $1 billion since the completion of the merger in April of 2020. That meets our original merger cost synergy target 2 years ahead of schedule. And there's always, of course, more to come and more to do there.

我們還繼續專注於卓越運營和計劃執行，以推動我們運營中的結構性成本降低和生產力。 2021 年，我們通過 RTX 合併實現了約 7.6 億美元的增量成本協同效應，自 2020 年 4 月完成合併以來，我們的增量成本協同效應已超過 10 億美元。這提前 2 年實現了我們最初的合併成本協同效應目標。當然，總會有更多的事情要做。

It's also worth noting that the Rockwell for the Collins Aerospace team achieved over $600 million in total Rockwell Collins synergies since the acquisition in November of 2018. They're meeting their commitment a year ahead of schedule despite the significant downturn in our commercial aerospace business.

還值得注意的是，自 2018 年 11 月收購羅克韋爾柯林斯以來，羅克韋爾柯林斯航空航天團隊共實現了超過 6 億美元的協同效應。儘管我們的商業航空航天業務嚴重下滑，但他們提前一年實現了承諾。

We also continue to fine-tune our portfolio during the year. As you know, we completed the acquisition of SEAKR Engineering and FlightAware, which will expand and enhance our capabilities in key growth areas. And we completed the divestitures of Forcepoint. And in December, we completed the sale of RIS' Global Training and Services business.

我們還在年內繼續微調我們的投資組合。如您所知，我們完成了對 SEAKR Engineering 和 FlightAware 的收購，這將擴大和增強我們在關鍵增長領域的能力。我們完成了對 Forcepoint 的剝離。 12 月，我們完成了 RIS 全球培訓和服務業務的出售。

On the capital allocation front, we returned $5.3 billion to shareowners in '21 for a total of $7.4 billion since we closed on the merger, well on track to the $20 billion plus that we've committed to in the first 4 years after the merger. As you saw in December, our Board of Directors also authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program, positioning us to continue returning significant capital to shareowners, including, at least, $2.5 billion of repurchases that we expect to complete in 2022. In addition to our strong financial performance during the year, we also achieved several notable strategic and operational milestones that I'd like to highlight.

在資本配置方面，自合併結束以來，我們在 21 年向股東返還了 53 億美元，總計 74 億美元，有望實現我們在合併後頭 4 年承諾的 200 億美元以上的回報.正如您在 12 月看到的那樣，我們的董事會還批准了一項 60 億美元的股票回購計劃，使我們能夠繼續向股東返還大量資本，其中至少包括我們預計在 2022 年完成的 25 億美元的回購。除了我們的在這一年強勁的財務業績的同時，我們還實現了幾個值得注意的戰略和運營里程碑，我想強調一下。

Let me start with Collins Aerospace. The business completed more than 750 Lean events in 2021. By utilizing our best practices from our CORE operating system, the team was able to reduce labor content on the F-18 heat exchanger by over 30%, reducing costs and importantly, creating capacity to support increased demand.

讓我從柯林斯航空航天公司開始。該企業在 2021 年完成了 750 多場精益活動。通過利用我們 CORE 操作系統的最佳實踐，該團隊能夠將 F-18 熱交換器的人工內容減少 30% 以上，降低成本，重要的是，創造能力來支持增加的需求。

At Pratt, the team introduced the GTF Advantage engine, which reduces fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by a total of 17% compared to the prior generation engines. It extends the GTF's lead as the most efficient power plant for the A320neo family. The engine will also be compatible with 100% sustainable aviation fuels, supporting the aviation industry's goal to significantly reduce emissions in the coming decades.

在普拉特，該團隊推出了 GTF Advantage 發動機，與上一代發動機相比，該發動機的油耗和二氧化碳排放量總共減少了 17%。它擴大了 GTF 作為 A320neo 系列最高效動力裝置的領先地位。該發動機還將與 100% 可持續航空燃料兼容，支持航空業在未來幾十年大幅減少排放的目標。

At both RIS and RMD, they achieved significant program milestones in the quarter, ahead of schedule. Through strong program execution at RIS, the joint precision approach and landing system program completed delivery on the first LRIP units 60 days ahead of schedule. This achievement has given the Navy the confidence to certify JPALS on the CVN carrier and two amphibious ship classes. RMD team also successfully completed the initial integration of the SPY-6 radar and the USS Jack Lucas in the quarter. This is the first time power simultaneously applied to the entire radar system, completing a critical milestone for integration of the ship, its combat system and the SPY-6 radar.

在 RIS 和 RMD，他們在本季度提前實現了重要的計劃里程碑。通過 RIS 強大的項目執行，聯合精確進近和著陸系統項目提前 60 天完成了第一批 LRIP 裝置的交付。這一成就使海軍有信心在 CVN 航母和兩個兩棲艦艇級別上對 JPALS 進行認證。 RMD 團隊還在本季度成功完成了 SPY-6 雷達與美國海軍傑克盧卡斯號的初步集成。這是首次同時為整個雷達系統供電，完成了艦艇、作戰系統和SPY-6雷達一體化的關鍵里程碑。

So with that, let me turn it over to Neil, and I'll come back at the end for a wrap up and Q&A. Neil?

因此，讓我把它交給尼爾，我會在最後回來進行總結和問答。尼爾？

Thanks, Greg. I'm on Slide 3. I'm pleased with how we finished the year as well as our performance in the quarter where we continue to see solid growth in organic sales, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow.

謝謝，格雷格。我在幻燈片 3 上。我對我們如何結束這一年以及我們在本季度的表現感到滿意，我們繼續看到有機銷售額、調整後每股收益和自由現金流的穩健增長。

Sales of $17 billion were in line with our expectations and were up 4% organically versus prior year on an adjusted basis. Our performance was primarily driven by the continued recovery of domestic short-haul international air travel, partially offset by continued supply chain pressures and lower 787 OE volume. It's worth noting that the Global Training and Services divestiture at RIS closed in early December, resulting in a sales headwind of about $100 million versus our prior outlook.

170 億美元的銷售額符合我們的預期，並且在調整後的基礎上比上一年有機增長 4%。我們的業績主要受到國內短途國際航空旅行持續復甦的推動，部分被持續的供應鏈壓力和較低的 787 OE 數量所抵消。值得注意的是，RIS 的全球培訓和服務剝離於 12 月初結束，導致銷售額與我們之前的預期相比減少了約 1 億美元。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.08 was ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by commercial aftermarket strength at both Collins and Pratt as well as favorability in our effective tax rate. On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.46 per share and included $0.62 of acquisition accounting adjustments and net significant and/or nonrecurring items.

調整後的每股收益為 1.08 美元，超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於柯林斯和普惠的商業售後市場實力以及我們有效稅率的優惠。根據公認會計原則，持續經營業務的每股收益為 0.46 美元，其中包括 0.62 美元的收購會計調整和淨重大和/或非經常性項目。

And finally, free cash flow of $2.2 billion was in-line with our expectations and resulted in full year free cash flow of $5 billion, which was $500 million better than our expectations at the beginning of the year, primarily driven by higher net income and lower CapEx.

最後，22 億美元的自由現金流符合我們的預期，導致全年自由現金流為 50 億美元，比我們年初的預期高出 5 億美元，這主要是受更高的淨收入和降低資本支出。

With that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share our thoughts on 2022. Jennifer?

有了這個，讓我把它交給詹妮弗來帶你了解細分市場的結果，我會回來分享我們對 2022 年的看法。詹妮弗？

Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $4.9 billion in the quarter, up 13% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets.

謝謝，尼爾。從幻燈片 4 上的 Collins Aerospace 開始。本季度銷售額為 49 億美元，在調整後和有機增長的基礎上均增長 13%，這主要受商業航空終端市場持續復甦的推動。

By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 47%, driven by a 59% increase in parts and repair, a 52% increase in provisioning and a 17% increase in modification and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 10%, driven by strength in parts and repair. Commercial OE sales were up 4% with strength in narrowbody, offsetting headwinds from lower 787 deliveries. And military sales were down 3% on another tough compare.

按渠道劃分，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 47%，其中零部件和維修增長了 59%，供應增長了 52%，改裝和升級增長了 17%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 10%，這主要得益於零部件和維修業務的強勁增長。商用 OE 銷量增長 4%，窄體機銷量強勁，抵消了 787 交付量下降帶來的不利影響。在另一個艱難的比較中，軍事銷售額下降了 3%。

Recall, Collins military sales were up 7% organically in the same period last year. The decline in the quarter was driven primarily by lower F-35 volume. Adjusted operating profit of $469 million was up $380 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales more than offset higher E&D and SG&A expense.

回想一下，柯林斯軍品銷售額在去年同期有機增長了 7%。本季度的下降主要是由於 F-35 銷量下降。調整後營業利潤為 4.69 億美元，比上年增加 3.8 億美元。更高的商業售後市場銷售額的下降抵消了更高的 E&D 和 SG&A 費用。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $5.1 billion were up 14% on an adjusted basis and up 15% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery of the commercial aerospace industry. Commercial OE sales were up 32% by higher GTF deliveries within Pratt's large commercial engine business as well as general aviation and BizJet platforms at Pratt Canada. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 28% in the quarter with legacy large commercial engine shop visits up 30% and Pratt Canada shop visits up 37%. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 17%.

轉到幻燈片 5 上的 Pratt & Whitney。銷售額 51 億美元，經調整後增長 14%，有機增長 15%，主要受商業航空業持續復甦的推動。普惠大型商用發動機業務以及普惠加拿大的通用航空和 BizJet 平台的 GTF 交付量增加，使得商用 OE 銷售額增長了 32%。本季度商業售後市場銷售額增長了 28%，其中傳統大型商業發動機商店訪問量增長了 30%，Pratt Canada 商店訪問量增長了 37%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 17%。

In the military business, sales were down 6% as expected on another difficult compare. Recall, Pratt's military sales were up 18% in the same period last year. The decrease in the quarter was driven by lower spare sales on legacy programs. Adjusted operating profit of $162 million was up $57 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket sales volume more than offset lower military volume, higher SG&A, E&D and the impact of higher commercial OE volume.

在軍事業務中，銷售額下降了 6%，正如預期的那樣，在另一個困難的比較中。回想一下，Pratt 的軍品銷售額在去年同期增長了 18%。本季度的下降是由於遺留項目的備件銷售下降所致。調整後營業利潤為 1.62 億美元，比上年增長 5700 萬美元。更高的商業售後市場銷量的下降抵消了更低的軍事銷量、更高的 SG&A、E&D 以及更高的商業 OE 銷量的影響。

Turning now to Slide 6. RIS sales of $3.9 billion were down 2% versus prior year on an adjusted basis and down 1% on an organic basis, reflecting 4 fewer workdays in the fourth quarter of 2021 versus the prior year. Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $400 million was up $39 million versus prior year, primarily driven by higher net program efficiencies. RIS had $3.4 billion of bookings in the quarter resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.97 and a backlog of $18 billion. In addition to the significant bookings that Greg discussed, RIS also booked $227 million for the Next Generation Jammer Mid-Band program in the quarter. RIS' book-to-bill for the year was 1.01.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。RIS 銷售額為 39 億美元，經調整後比上年下降 2%，有機下降 1%，反映出 2021 年第四季度的工作日比上年減少了 4 個。本季度調整後的營業利潤為 4 億美元，比去年同期增加 3900 萬美元，這主要是由於更高的淨計劃效率。 RIS 在本季度的預訂量為 34 億美元，訂單出貨率為 0.97，積壓訂單為 180 億美元。除了 Greg 討論的大量預訂外，RIS 還在本季度為下一代干擾器中頻項目預訂了 2.27 億美元。 RIS 當年的訂單出貨比為 1.01。

Turning now to Slide 7. RMD sales was $3.9 billion, down 10% on an adjusted basis and down 8% on an organic basis, primarily driven by 4 fewer workdays in the quarter as well as lower material receipts and expected declines in several international production contracts. Adjusted operating profit of $486 million was $93 million lower than the prior year, driven by lower net program efficiencies and lower sales volume. RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $3.2 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.83 and backlog of $29 billion. In addition to the SM-2 bookings Greg mentioned, RMD also booked $269 million for Evolved Seasparrow Missile Block 2. RMD's book-to-bill for the year was 1.02.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。RMD 銷售額為 39 億美元，經調整後下降 10%，有機下降 8%，這主要是由於本季度減少了 4 個工作日以及材料收貨量減少以及一些國際生產的預期下降合同。調整後的營業利潤為 4.86 億美元，比上年減少 9300 萬美元，原因是淨計劃效率和銷量下降。 RMD 本季度的預訂量約為 32 億美元，導致訂單出貨率為 0.83，積壓訂單為 290 億美元。除了 Greg 提到的 SM-2 訂單外，RMD 還為 Evolved Seasparrow Missile Block 2 預訂了 2.69 億美元。RMD 今年的訂單出貨比為 1.02。

Before moving on, I would also like to comment on the previously disclosed DOJ investigation into cost accounting matters at legacy Raytheon Company's former Integrated Defense Systems business or IDS, which is now part of RMD. As you will see in our upcoming 10-K filing, we have made progress in our internal investigation into the matter. And we now have determined that there is a probable risk of liabilities for damages, interest and penalties.

在繼續之前，我還想評論一下先前披露的美國司法部對雷神公司前綜合防禦系統業務或 IDS 的成本核算問題的調查，該業務現在是 RMD 的一部分。正如您將在我們即將提交的 10-K 文件中看到的那樣，我們對此事的內部調查取得了進展。我們現在已經確定，可能存在損害賠償、利息和罰款責任的風險。

In addition to the amount recorded in the first quarter of 2021 in connection with the finalization of purchase accounting, we recorded an incremental accrual in the amount of $147 million during the fourth quarter relating to the matter, bringing our total reserve to approximately $290 million. We still do not currently believe the resolution of this matter will result in a material adverse impact to our financial condition, and we will continue to cooperate with the government's investigation.

除了在 2021 年第一季度記錄的與最終確定採購會計相關的金額外，我們在第四季度還記錄了與此事相關的 1.47 億美元增量應計金額，使我們的總儲備金達到約 2.9 億美元。我們目前仍然認為此事的解決不會對我們的財務狀況造成重大不利影響，我們將繼續配合政府的調查。

With that, I'll turn it back to Neil to provide some color on the rest of the year.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給尼爾，為今年剩下的時間提供一些顏色。

Thank you, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 8. So, before I get into the specifics of our '22 financial outlook, let me give you some perspective on how we are thinking about the environment as we look ahead.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。我在幻燈片 8 上。因此，在我詳細介紹我們的 22 年財務展望之前，讓我先談談我們在展望未來時如何考慮環境問題。

Let me start with the positives. Despite the impact of COVID variants, we expect the commercial aerospace recovery will continue into 2022 with continued growth in commercial aftermarket and narrowbody OE deliveries, driven by further strength in domestic traffic and growth in international traffic.

讓我先從優點說起。儘管 COVID 變種的影響，我們預計商業航空航天的複蘇將持續到 2022 年，在國內交通進一步走強和國際交通增長的推動下，商業售後市場和窄體 OE 交付將持續增長。

By the end of the year, we are assuming global RPMs recover to about 90% of 2019 levels with domestic travel recovering to be approximately in-line with the 2019 levels and international travel recovering to between 75% and 80% of 2019 levels. The reopening of international borders, specifically in the Asia Pacific region, and the related widebody traffic will be a significant factor in the timing and extent of the related aftermarket recovery. Ultimately, the timing and trajectory of the overall recovery this year isn't likely to be linear and it will depend on our customers' fleet decisions and buying behavior. Looking longer term, we continue to expect commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels by the end of next year.

到今年年底，我們假設全球 RPM 恢復到 2019 年水平的 90% 左右，國內旅行恢復到與 2019 年水平大致一致，國際旅行恢復到 2019 年水平的 75% 到 80%。國際邊界的重新開放，特別是在亞太地區，以及相關的寬體客運量將是影響相關售後市場復甦時間和程度的重要因素。最終，今年整體復甦的時間和軌跡不太可能是線性的，這將取決於我們客戶的車隊決策和購買行為。從長遠來看，我們繼續預計商業交通量將在明年年底前恢復到 2019 年的水平。

On the defense side, we expect continued organic growth in 2022 as we deliver on our $63 billion backlog, continued bipartisan support for the fiscal '22 defense budget and international demand for our products and technologies. And across RTX, we remain laser focused on driving operational excellence to deliver cost reduction and further margin expansion, including $335 million of incremental RTX merger cost synergies during 2022. And this keeps us on track to achieve $1.5 billion in gross cost synergies by Q1 of 2024.

在國防方面，我們預計 2022 年將繼續實現有機增長，因為我們完成了 630 億美元的積壓工作，兩黨對 22 財政年度國防預算的持續支持以及對我們產品和技術的國際需求。在整個 RTX 中，我們仍然專注於推動卓越運營，以降低成本並進一步擴大利潤，包括在 2022 年期間增加 3.35 億美元的 RTX 合併成本協同效應。這使我們有望在 2020 年第一季度實現 15 億美元的總成本協同效應。 2024.

On the challenges side. We anticipate that global supply chain and inflation pressures will continue, and that 787 build rates will remain low. With respect to the supply chain, we anticipate that COVID-related labor disruptions will persist through the first half of the year, but will ease through the second half of the year. And as we've discussed, a significant portion of our material spend is under long-term agreements. That said, we are assuming a level of inflationary pressure across our businesses in our outlook that will be partially offset by productivity improvements. And of course, we're continuing to monitor the U.S. and global tax environment and the current and potentially protracted continuing resolution. So with that backdrop, let me tell you how this translates to our financial outlook for the year.

在挑戰方面。我們預計全球供應鍊和通脹壓力將持續存在，787 的建造率將保持低位。在供應鏈方面，我們預計與 COVID 相關的勞動力中斷將持續到今年上半年，但將在下半年緩解。正如我們所討論的，我們的很大一部分材料支出是根據長期協議進行的。也就是說，在我們的展望中，我們假設我們的業務存在一定程度的通脹壓力，這將被生產率的提高部分抵消。當然，我們將繼續監控美國和全球稅收環境以及當前和可能長期持續的解決方案。因此，在這種背景下，讓我告訴您這如何轉化為我們今年的財務前景。

Let's turn to Slide 9. At the RTX level, we expect full year 2022 sales of between $68.5 billion and $69.5 billion. This represents organic growth of between 7% and 9% year-over-year. Keep in mind, the sale of RIS' Global Training and Services businesses creates about $1 billion of sales headwind year-over-year as well as the associated profit.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9。在 RTX 級別，我們預計 2022 年全年銷售額在 685 億美元至 695 億美元之間。這表示同比有機增長在 7% 至 9% 之間。請記住，出售 RIS 的全球培訓和服務業務會產生約 10 億美元的同比銷售逆風以及相關利潤。

From an earnings perspective, we expect adjusted EPS of $4.60 to $4.80, up 8% to 12% year-over-year. And we expect to generate free cash flow of about $6 billion. That's up about 20% versus 2021. It's important to note that this free cash flow outlook assumes that the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred beyond 2022, which as we've said before, the free cash flow impact of this legislation is approximately $2 billion. It's also worth noting that if the legislation is not deferred, you would see about a $0.10 EPS benefit as well from the impacts of the R&D capitalization that would have components of our U.S. taxable income. And as Greg mentioned, we expect to buy back at least $2.5 billion of RTX shares over the year, subject to market conditions.

從收益的角度來看，我們預計調整後的每股收益為 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元，同比增長 8% 至 12%。我們預計將產生約 60 億美元的自由現金流。這比 2021 年增加了約 20%。需要注意的是，這種自由現金流前景假設要求出於稅收目的將研發資本化的立法推遲到 2022 年之後，正如我們之前所說，這項立法對自由現金流的影響是大約 20 億美元。還值得注意的是，如果不推遲立法，您將看到約 0.10 美元的每股收益收益以及研發資本化的影響，這將成為我們美國應稅收入的組成部分。正如 Greg 所提到的，我們預計今年將根據市場情況回購至少 25 億美元的 RTX 股票。

With that, let's move to Slide 10 for the segment outlooks. At Collins, we expect full year sales to be up low double digits and adjusted operating profit to grow between $650 million and $800 million versus last year. This is primarily driven by higher narrowbody OE deliveries and growth across all three commercial aftermarket channels, supporting both narrow and widebody aircraft. And military sales at Collins are expected to be up low single digit for the year.

有了這個，讓我們轉到幻燈片 10 的細分市場展望。在柯林斯，我們預計全年銷售額將增長兩位數，調整後的營業利潤將比去年增長 6.5 億至 8 億美元。這主要是由窄體飛機 OE 交付量增加以及所有三個商業售後市場渠道的增長推動的，同時支持窄體和寬體飛機。預計 Collins 的軍品銷售額今年將增長個位數。

Turning to Pratt & Whitney. We see full year sales growing low double digits versus prior year, principally driven by higher OE deliveries in both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada businesses, as well as continued growth in legacy large commercial engine and Pratt Canada shop visits.

轉向普惠公司。我們看到全年銷售額與上一年相比增長低兩位數，這主要是由於 Pratt 的大型商用發動機和 Pratt Canada 業務的 OE 交付量增加，以及傳統大型商用發動機和 Pratt Canada 商店訪問量的持續增長。

Military sales at Pratt are expected to be down mid-single digit, driven by lower F135 production inputs, partially offset by higher F135 sustainment volume. With respect to operating profit, we see Pratt's adjusted operating profit growing between $500 million and $600 million versus last year, primarily on higher aftermarket volume and partially offset by higher large commercial OE engine deliveries and lower military volumes.

受 F135 生產投入減少的推動，Pratt 的軍事銷售額預計將下降中個位數，部分被 F135 維護量增加所抵消。在營業利潤方面，我們看到普惠調整後的營業利潤與去年相比增長了 5 億至 6 億美元，這主要是由於售後市場銷量增加，部分被大型商用 OE 發動機交付量增加和軍用量減少所抵消。

Turning to RIS. We expect full year sales to be down slightly versus prior year on a reported basis and to grow low single digit on an organic basis with strength coming from classified programs and production ramps in airborne ISR and EWS. And we expect year-over-year adjusted operating profit at RIS to be flat to up $50 million, driven by higher net program efficiencies and volume.

轉向 RIS。我們預計，根據報告，全年銷售額將較上年略有下降，並在有機基礎上實現低個位數增長，這得益於機載 ISR 和 EWS 的機密項目和生產量的增長。我們預計 RIS 的同比調整後營業利潤將持平至 5000 萬美元，這得益於更高的淨計劃效率和數量。

At RMD, we see sales growing low single to mid-single digit, driven by growth across multiple programs and for adjusted operating profit to be up in the range of $150 million to $200 million versus prior year, driven by improved program performance and the volume. It's worth mentioning that we expect both RIS and RMD to again have a book-to-bill greater than 1.0 for the year. And finally, we expect intercompany sales elims to grow in-line with total company sales. I will note that we've included in our outlook some of the below-the-line items and pension in the webcast appendices.

在 RMD，我們看到銷售額以低個位數增長到中個位數，這是由多個項目的增長推動的，調整後的營業利潤將比上一年增加 1.5 億至 2 億美元，這是由改進的項目績效和數量推動的.值得一提的是，我們預計 RIS 和 RMD 今年的訂單出貨比將再次超過 1.0。最後，我們預計公司間銷售額將與公司總銷售額同步增長。我會注意到，我們已經在我們的展望中包括了網絡廣播附錄中的一些線下項目和養老金。

So turning now to Slide 11 for our '22 adjusted EPS walk. Starting with the segments. We expect the segments to generate about $0.83 of EPS growth at the midpoint of our outlook range. From there, pension will be a headwind, primarily due to lower CAS recovery and higher discount rates. Our tax rate in '22 is expected to be between 18.5% and 19% versus the 15.5% in 2021, primarily due to one-time tax benefits associated with the prior year optimization of our legal entity and operating structure that we realized in the third quarter that will not repeat. This will result in a $0.19 headwind.

因此，現在轉到幻燈片 11 進行我們的 '22 調整後 EPS 步行。從細分開始。我們預計這些細分市場將在我們展望範圍的中點產生約 0.83 美元的每股收益增長。從那時起，養老金將成為不利因素，主要是由於較低的 CAS 回收率和較高的貼現率。我們在 22 年的稅率預計在 18.5% 至 19% 之間，而 2021 年為 15.5%，這主要是由於我們在第三年實現的與上一年優化我們的法人實體和運營結構相關的一次性稅收優惠不會重複的季度。這將導致 0.19 美元的逆風。

We expect corporate expenses to be a $0.06 headwind year-over-year due to higher investment-related RTX synergy projects and digital transformation initiatives that are partially offset by lower LTAMDS spend. And finally, lower share count, interest and other items are expected to be a $0.07 tailwind. All of this brings us to our outlook range of $4.60 to $4.80 per share.

由於與投資相關的 RTX 協同項目和數字化轉型計劃的增加被 LTAMDS 支出的減少部分抵消，我們預計公司支出將同比減少 0.06 美元。最後，較低的股票數量、利息和其他項目預計將帶來 0.07 美元的順風。所有這些使我們的展望範圍為每股 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元。

Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 12. We expect strong operational growth, along with lower restructuring to contribute about $1.5 billion of free cash flow growth in 2022. These will be partially offset by expected pension headwinds and higher cash taxes to get to our free cash flow outlook of about $6 billion. Again, this outlook assumes the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred.

現在轉向幻燈片 12 上的自由現金流。我們預計強勁的運營增長以及較低的重組將在 2022 年貢獻約 15 億美元的自由現金流增長。這些將被預期的養老金逆風和更高的現金稅部分抵消，以實現我們的目標自由現金流前景約為 60 億美元。同樣，這種展望假設出於稅收目的要求研發資本化的立法被推遲。

And lastly, before turning it back to Greg, a couple of comments on the first quarter. With respect to sales, we expect sales to be up mid-single digit organically versus prior year, driven by the continued commercial aerospace recovery and partially offset by lower defense sales driven by continuing supply chain pressures and the impact of Omicron. And again, just to remind you, the prior year included Q1 sales of about $200 million as well as the associated profit for the divested RIS services business.

最後，在將其轉回給 Greg 之前，先對第一季度發表一些評論。在銷售額方面，我們預計銷售額將比上一年有機增長中等個位數，這主要受商業航空航天持續復甦的推動，部分被持續的供應鏈壓力和 Omicron 的影響導致的國防銷售額下降所抵消。再次提醒您，上一年包括約 2 億美元的第一季度銷售額以及剝離的 RIS 服務業務的相關利潤。

On the adjusted EPS side, we see low double-digit to mid-teens growth in the quarter versus prior year. And for cash, we expect to see an outflow of about $500 million in the quarter due to typical seasonal factors in the timing of collections.

在調整後的每股收益方面，我們看到本季度與去年同期相比增長了兩位數到十幾歲左右。對於現金，由於收款時間的典型季節性因素，我們預計本季度將流出約 5 億美元。

So, with that, let me hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

因此，讓我把它交還給格雷格，讓我把事情搞定。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. We're on Slide 13. So, a lot of moving pieces as always. But I would tell you, we actually exited 2021 with really good momentum across the businesses. And we expect to make further progress on our priorities here as we enter into 2022.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。我們在幻燈片 13 上。所以，一如既往地有很多動人的片段。但我會告訴你，我們實際上在 2021 年以整個業務的良好勢頭退出。隨著我們進入 2022 年，我們希望在我們的優先事項上取得進一步進展。

First and foremost, let me repeat that we're focused on keeping our employees safe, keeping our commercial customers flying and protecting the war fighter while they defend our country and allies and of course, supporting our suppliers. We're also going to continue to invest in differentiated technology and innovation to maintain our industry-leading positions, which will drive growth over the long term, and of course, to capitalize on our growing end markets.

首先，讓我重申一下，我們的重點是確保員工安全，讓我們的商業客戶保持飛行，並在他們保衛我們的國家和盟友時保護戰士，當然還要支持我們的供應商。我們還將繼續投資於差異化技術和創新，以保持我們的行業領先地位，這將推動長期增長，當然，還要利用我們不斷增長的終端市場。

At the same time, our leadership team is making significant progress to reduce structural costs, drive operational efficiencies through our CORE operating system and to deliver on our synergy commitments. Finally, we remain disciplined with capital allocation. We have a very strong balance sheet, along with our cash-generating capabilities supports investments in our businesses and our commitment to returning capital to shareowners, including at least $20 billion in the first 4 years following the merger, as I said earlier. I'm confident in our ability to deliver both top and bottom-line growth and margin expansion across our businesses this year as we continue to leverage the growth opportunities that are in front of us.

與此同時，我們的領導團隊在降低結構成本、通過我們的 CORE 操作系統提高運營效率以及履行我們的協同承諾方面取得了重大進展。最後，我們在資本配置方面保持紀律。我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，我們的現金生成能力支持對我們業務的投資以及我們向股東返還資本的承諾，包括合併後頭 4 年的至少 200 億美元，正如我之前所說的。隨著我們繼續利用擺在我們面前的增長機會，我相信我們有能力在今年實現我們所有業務的最高和最低增長以及利潤率擴張。

So with that, let's turn it over to Lisa, and we'll take whatever questions you might have. Thank you.

因此，讓我們把它交給麗莎，我們會回答你可能有的任何問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Greg, Neil, Jennifer, so free cash flow is guided to $6 billion this year, up from $5 billion last year and 20% growth. And you have a pretty consistent cadence of free cash flow growth for your 2025 target as $10 billion despite pension headwind of $1.3 billion. Maybe if you could get into the different buckets and different impacts as we get into that 2025 $10 billion free cash flow number.

Greg、Neil、Jennifer，所以今年的自由現金流量預計達到 60 億美元，高於去年的 50 億美元和 20% 的增長率。儘管養老金逆風 13 億美元，但您的 2025 年目標為 100 億美元，自由現金流增長的節奏非常一致。也許當我們進入 2025 年 100 億美元的自由現金流數字時，你可以進入不同的桶和不同的影響。

Thanks, Sheila. It's Neil here. As we think about the walk from where we are today to 2025, as we've said before, the majority of that is going to come from the operating profit growth that we'll see in the segments as we continue to go through the recovery here, probably a little bit north of $7 billion. If you were to strike 2021 as a starting point, you'll see there's $1.6 billion of pension headwind. And we'll probably have somewhere in the range of $600 million to $700 million of CapEx headwind. And that will be partially offset by a couple of hundred million of corporate and other items. So still see a clear path to the $10 billion of free cash flow as we get into 2025, and we get through the recovery here. Feeling very good about that.

謝謝，希拉。我是尼爾。當我們考慮從今天到 2025 年的步行路程時，正如我們之前所說，其中大部分將來自營業利潤增長，隨著我們繼續經歷復甦，我們將在這些細分市場中看到在這裡，可能略高於 70 億美元。如果你以 2021 年為起點，你會發現有 16 億美元的養老金逆風。我們可能會遇到 6 億至 7 億美元的資本支出逆風。這將被幾億美元的公司和其他項目部分抵消。因此，在我們進入 2025 年時，仍然可以看到通往 100 億美元自由現金流的清晰路徑，我們將在這裡度過復甦期。對此感覺非常好。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

This might be a question for Greg. I wonder if you could maybe give us some more color on the supply chain situation. Have things got any worse since what you experienced in Q4? And then in relation to that, how are you getting all the supply chain in place for the A320 ramp that's planned for this year?

這可能是格雷格的問題。我想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於供應鏈情況的信息。自您在第四季度經歷的事情以來，情況是否變得更糟了？然後與此相關，您如何為今年計劃的 A320 坡道準備好所有供應鏈？

Yes, Rob, that's a really good question. And I think RTX, just like many other large companies, has seen its share of supply disruptions, I would say. And it's really, I would bucket it in two different ways. One is in our supply chain, we see some labor shortages with skilled positions. And I can think of probably the most important one right now is in the castings where we see a shortage of welders. And so we're working with our suppliers to make sure that we can get demand or get supply back up to demand. It's not going to happen here in the first quarter. We see that we're going to have a slow Q1, as Neil said, primarily at Pratt, that will also impact a little bit at Collins.

是的，羅伯，這是一個非常好的問題。我認為 RTX，就像許多其他大公司一樣，已經看到了它在供應中斷中所佔的份額，我想說。真的，我會用兩種不同的方式來處理它。一個是在我們的供應鏈中，我們看到一些技能職位的勞動力短缺。我能想到的可能是目前最重要的一個問題是我們看到焊工短缺的鑄件。因此，我們正在與我們的供應商合作，以確保我們能夠獲得需求或使供應恢復到需求。第一季度這裡不會發生這種情況。正如尼爾所說，我們看到我們將有一個緩慢的第一季度，主要是在普拉特，這也會對柯林斯產生一點影響。

We're also seeing, I think, as we talked about, a slowdown of receipts on the defense side of the business. We saw that in December. That's gotten a little bit worse than what we had seen at the end of the third quarter. And I would say, again, there's two pieces to that. Obviously, the Omicron variant had a significant impact on our -- not just our workforce, but our suppliers' workforce. But also, again, the labor shortage that we're seeing as well as the need to continue to drive wages up to attract talent.

我認為，正如我們所談到的，我們還看到了業務防禦方面的收入放緩。我們在 12 月看到了這一點。這比我們在第三季度末看到的情況更糟。我要說的是，這有兩個部分。顯然，Omicron 變體對我們產生了重大影響——不僅是我們的員工隊伍，還有我們供應商的員工隊伍。但同樣，我們看到的勞動力短缺以及繼續提高工資以吸引人才的需要。

Just to put it in perspective, we've got about 13,000 product suppliers. We are monitoring the supply chain on a daily basis. There are less than 100, I would say out there that are giving us real concern, but it only takes one to make us miss a shipment. So we're actively trying to manage this. I think we're doing a good job, but we will see some impact here in the first quarter from supply chain.

客觀地說，我們有大約 13,000 家產品供應商。我們每天都在監控供應鏈。不到 100 個，我會說那裡讓我們真正擔心，但只需要一個就可以讓我們錯過一批貨。因此，我們正在積極嘗試對此進行管理。我認為我們做得很好，但我們會在第一季度看到供應鏈的一些影響。

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自 David Strauss with Barclays。

Greg, Neil, maybe could you touch on the moving pieces of the implied incremental margins at Collins and Pratt. Looks like Collins, kind of in the mid-30s, Pratt in the mid-20s, I guess, on Collins, what you're assuming for E&D and kind of what's hitting the range that we might have expected? And then on Pratt, the negative engine margin that you're expecting in 2022 relative to 2021?

格雷格、尼爾，也許你能談談柯林斯和普拉特隱含增量利潤率的變動部分。看起來像柯林斯，大約在 30 多歲，普拉特在 20 多歲，我想，在柯林斯，你對 E&D 的假設是什麼，以及達到我們預期範圍的是什麼？然後在 Pratt 上，您預計 2022 年相對於 2021 年的負發動機利潤率？

Thank you, David. Let me start with Collins. So you're right on the incrementals. We're expecting incrementals in that mid-30s percent range as we go through the year. Recall, we called out a few one-time items last year that probably helped margins by about 50 basis points. So good strong incrementals there. Just hitting on a few of the components of our Collins outlook. We do expect that our commercial OE will be up sort of high teens on the sales line. Commercial aftermarket, up around 20% or so, probably a little north of that. And military, up low single digits.

謝謝你，大衛。讓我從柯林斯開始。所以你是正確的增量。我們預計在這一年中會出現 30% 左右的增量。回想一下，我們去年召集了一些一次性項目，這些項目可能幫助利潤率提高了大約 50 個基點。那裡有如此強大的增量。只是觸及我們柯林斯展望的一些組成部分。我們確實希望我們的商業 OE 將在銷售線上達到十幾歲的水平。商業售後市場，上漲約 20% 左右，可能略高於此。和軍事，低個位數。

As you think about Pratt, same thing, the incremental is there in the mid-20s, as you expect -- you said. Commercial OE, expected to be up between 20% and 25%. On the aftermarket side, also between 20% and 25%. And as we said, military, down mid-single digits. So again, great growth at Pratt. We do expect to ship probably about 200 more engines. And as I think about the NEM headwind, it's in the range of $100 million to $150 million. So we're seeing good absorption as we ramp that volume back up over the course of 2022. And as Greg said, the supply chain issues at Pratt, with respect to castings, could result in a little bit of lower deliveries here in the first quarter, but we do expect that full year, we will be up a couple of hundred engines.

當你想到 Pratt 時，同樣的事情，正如你所期望的那樣，在 20 年代中期就有了增量——你說過。商業 OE，預計將增長 20% 至 25%。在售後市場方面，也在 20% 到 25% 之間。正如我們所說，軍事，下降了中等個位數。再一次，普拉特的巨大增長。我們確實希望再運送大約 200 台發動機。當我想到 NEM 逆風時，它在 1 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間。因此，隨著我們在 2022 年期間增加產量，我們看到了良好的吸收。正如 Greg 所說，Pratt 在鑄件方面的供應鏈問題可能會導致第一季度的交付量略有下降季度，但我們確實預計全年，我們將增加幾百台發動機。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Could you spend another minute on sort of how you built the aerospace aftermarket forecast for the year and how you expect it to progress through the year? Obviously, when Omicron lets up, there's a huge question mark and there's a wide range of possible outcomes of where travel could be exiting the year versus starting the year. And Neil, last year, you kind of framed what you were expecting for the broader ecosystem and then how you layered your own forecast on top of that and the degree of conservatism or lack thereof. So it'd be helpful to hear that from you again today.

您能否再花一分鐘時間談談您是如何建立今年的航空航天售後市場預測的，以及您期望它在這一年中如何發展？顯然，當 Omicron 鬆懈時，就會有一個巨大的問號，並且可能會出現各種可能的結果，即旅行可能在今年結束時與年初開始時出現的情況。尼爾，去年，你構建了你對更廣泛的生態系統的期望，然後你如何將你自己的預測分層，以及保守主義的程度或缺乏。所以今天再次聽到你的話會很有幫助。

Yes, Noah. Let me give that a shot here. So let me start with the macro-outlook here. So we talked about our RPM and ASM assumptions as you get to the end of the year, but a little bit of color on the way we see that coming through the year. So if you think about -- I'll start with ASM sequentially, sort of low single-digit sequential growth in the first quarter, hitting the mid-30s, Q1 to Q2; mid-teens, Q2 to Q3. And then actually down seasonally in the fourth quarter, mid-single digit, call it.

是的，諾亞。讓我在這裡試一試。因此，讓我從這裡的宏觀前景開始。因此，我們在年底時討論了我們的 RPM 和 ASM 假設，但我們看到這一年的方式有點色彩。因此，如果您考慮 - 我將從 ASM 開始，第一季度的低個位數連續增長，達到 30 年代中期，第一季度到第二季度；十幾歲中期，Q2 到 Q3。然後實際上在第四季度季節性下降，中個位數，稱之為。

So the crux of our outlook as we think about the year really depends on the widebody recovery. Last year, I would say about 75% of our aftermarket improvement and the improvement that we saw in ASMs came from domestic narrowbody. And this year, we're expecting about 80% of the growth to be driven by international long haul and about 50% of that driven by long-haul routes. So it's going to be a really important factor as we look at the year.

因此，我們今年展望的關鍵實際上取決於寬體機的複蘇。去年，我想說大約 75% 的售後市場改進和我們在 ASM 中看到的改進來自國內窄體機。今年，我們預計約 80% 的增長將由國際長途航線推動，約 50% 的增長將由長途航線推動。因此，當我們回顧這一年時，這將是一個非常重要的因素。

If you think about how that translates to the aftermarket sales assumptions, the compares are getting a little bit more difficult sequentially given where we ended the fourth quarter. I would expect Collins to be in the low to mid-single digits sequentially on the aftermarket growth throughout the course of the year. Pratt, we'll see down in the mid-single -- mid- to high single range here in the first quarter as we come off a traditionally high fourth quarter, and that goes to I'll call it, high single digits, second quarter and mid-single digits through the rest of the year. So hopefully, that helps give you a little color on what we're seeing. Greg, anything you want to add?

如果你考慮一下這如何轉化為售後市場銷售假設，考慮到我們在第四季度結束時的情況，比較順序變得有點困難。我預計柯林斯在全年的售後市場增長中將連續處於中低個位數。普拉特，我們將在第一季度看到中單-中高單範圍，因為我們從傳統的第四季度中脫穎而出，我稱之為高個位數，第二在今年餘下的時間裡，四分之一和中間個位數。希望這能幫助您對我們所看到的內容有所了解。格雷格，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Noah, I think that the most important part just to reinforce what Neil said is really the -- our forecast for the aftermarket really is dependent upon a widebody recovery. And as you know, that is primarily a Pacific reopening. So, you have to see China reopening. We have to see all of the countries in the Pacific Rim start to reopen, which will allow traffic to recover.

是的。諾亞，我認為最重要的部分只是為了加強尼爾所說的——我們對售後市場的預測確實取決於寬體機的複蘇。如您所知，這主要是太平洋地區的重新開放。所以，你必須看到中國重新開放。我們必須看到環太平洋地區的所有國家都開始重新開放，這將使交通恢復。

Your guess is as good as mine with the China zero-COVID policy that they have, whether or not we'll see that here in the second quarter or the third quarter or the fourth quarter. Right now, we're assuming that second quarter, we'll start to see it. And we'll hopefully see that kind of progression throughout the year, which will get us back on track to give widebody back to 2019 levels, hopefully by the end of 2023.

無論我們是否會在第二季度、第三季度或第四季度在這裡看到，你的猜測和我的猜測一樣好，因為他們擁有中國零 COVID 政策。現在，我們假設第二季度，我們將開始看到它。我們希望全年都能看到這種進展，這將使我們重回正軌，讓寬體飛機回到 2019 年的水平，希望到 2023 年底。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 與 Baird 的對話。

Greg, maybe just switching over to defense. Could you maybe just give us a little bit of some of the things you're expecting for maybe on the international side, historically, Raytheon's had a lot of international awards, what your expectations might be for a book-to-bill and if you're seeing any kind of increased input from international countries just given the rising tension?

格雷格，也許只是轉向防守。你能不能給我們一些你對國際方面的期望，從歷史上看，雷神公司獲得過很多國際獎項，你對訂單到賬單的期望是什麼，如果你鑑於緊張局勢加劇，是否看到國際國家的投入有所增加？

Yes, Peter, it's a good question. And I think the answer is, obviously, we are seeing, I would say, opportunities for international sales. We just have to look to last week where we saw the drone attack in the UAE, which attacked some of their facilities. And of course, the tensions in Eastern Europe, the tensions in the South China Sea, all of those things are putting pressure on some of the defense spending over there.

是的，彼得，這是個好問題。我認為答案顯然是，我想說，我們看到了國際銷售的機會。我們只需要看看上週我們在阿聯酋看到的無人機襲擊事件，襲擊了他們的一些設施。當然，東歐的緊張局勢，南海的緊張局勢，所有這些都給那裡的一些國防開支帶來壓力。

So, I fully expect we're going to see some benefit from it. I would say, though, that should there be hostilities, whether it's in the Middle East or whether it's in the Asia Pacific region, you're not going to see an immediate benefit here because what you'll see is a reallocation of inventory that we already have out there with the services. But I fully expect we should see a recovery in the international defense maybe in the book-to-bill well north of 1 as we move into 2022 and beyond.

所以，我完全希望我們能從中看到一些好處。不過，我要說的是，如果發生敵對行動，無論是在中東還是在亞太地區，你都不會在這裡看到立竿見影的好處，因為你會看到庫存的重新分配我們已經提供了服務。但我完全預計，隨著我們進入 2022 年及以後，我們應該會看到國際防務的複蘇，也許在 1 以北的訂單出貨比中。

One of the biggest drivers, of course, will be LTAMDS. And I think, again, that's probably a 2023 benefit. We'll start to see bookings then for LTAMDS, which, of course, is the upgrade of the Patriot Missile defense system. But that will be, again, a couple of years out.

當然，最大的驅動因素之一將是 LTAMDS。我再次認為，這可能是 2023 年的好處。我們將開始看到 LTAMDS 的預訂，這當然是愛國者導彈防禦系統的升級。但這又將是幾年後的事了。

Greg, maybe if I could just pile on a little bit, too. We do see some international GEM-T awards at RMD. And as we look at the $29 billion backlog of RMD and the sales outlook that we put out there, which is low single digit to mid-single digit, think 3% to 4% or so year-over-year at RMD. We're confident that we have the backlog to continue to grow as we get through 2022.

格雷格，也許我也可以稍微增加一點。我們確實在 RMD 看到了一些國際 GEM-T 獎項。當我們查看 RMD 的 290 億美元積壓訂單和我們在那裡提出的銷售前景時，這是低個位數到中個位數，認為 RMD 同比增長 3% 到 4% 左右。我們有信心，隨著我們度過 2022 年，我們的積壓工作將繼續增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

So I guess a question for both of you. A key part of the story is operational improvement as we walk out over the next couple of years, right? That's going to be a big cash flow driver. And a big part of that is GTF. So, a question we've been fielding from investors, and maybe you can give us some perspective on this. How can we feel better about the long-term contracts you've put in place to do maintenance on the GTF family of engines, where it seems like time-on-weighing and the hot section maybe hasn't has performed like we were hoping it would at first. Meaning, how can we feel good that those contracts are priced right be it that they're kind of long term in nature?

所以我想你們兩個都有一個問題。故事的一個關鍵部分是我們在未來幾年走出去時的運營改進，對吧？這將是一個很大的現金流驅動力。其中很大一部分是 GTF。所以，我們一直在回答投資者的問題，也許你可以給我們一些看法。我們如何才能對您為 GTF 系列發動機進行維護而簽訂的長期合同感覺更好，在這些合同中，稱重時間似乎很長，而熱區可能沒有像我們希望的那樣表現起初會。意思是，這些合同的定價是正確的，因為它們本質上是長期的，我們怎麼能感覺良好呢？

Let me take a shot at it, Ron, then I'll turn it over to the former CFO at Pratt to answer the actual contract question. Maybe just to put it in perspective, to date, on the GTF program, we have had more than 12 million flight hours on that. In the last 12 months, dispatch reliability has been 99.96%. So I know that we had a lot of teething problems back in '16 and '17, and we talked ad nauseam about all of those teething problems. And obviously, it impacted some of our time on wing, impacted some of those maintenance support contracts.

讓我試一試，Ron，然後我會把它交給 Pratt 的前 CFO 來回答實際的合同問題。也許只是為了正確看待，迄今為止，在 GTF 計劃中，我們已經有超過 1200 萬小時的飛行時間。在過去 12 個月中，調度可靠性為 99.96%。所以我知道我們在 16 年和 17 年遇到了很多初期問題，我們對所有這些初期問題進行了令人作嘔的討論。顯然，它影響了我們的一些機翼時間，影響了一些維護支持合同。

But given where we are from a reliability standpoint today, those programs will start to generate positive cash flow coming up as the first full shop visits happen in the next year, forward and beyond. And I actually feel pretty good about where we are on those contracts given the robustness of the current engine. Of course, in 2023, we're going to be delivering the advantage engine, which gives again better fuel burn, and we think even more durability, which, again, will only benefit those aftermarket contracts.

但考慮到我們今天從可靠性的角度來看所處的位置，這些計劃將開始產生積極的現金流，因為明年、未來和以後將進行首次全面的商店訪問。考慮到當前引擎的穩健性，我實際上對我們在這些合同上的位置感到非常滿意。當然，在 2023 年，我們將提供優勢發動機，它再次提供更好的燃油燃燒，我們認為更耐用，這同樣只會有利於那些售後市場合同。

Yes. Thanks, Greg, I'll just add that the average age of those airplanes is still under 3. There's plenty of time. These are long-term contracts. We've made significant improvements. You mentioned the durability improvements, and we are factoring that in, obviously, as we look at those contracts. And I would tell you that as we perform warranty-type work under these contracts today, we've been reasonably conservative in our outlook and our bookings on that.

是的。謝謝，格雷格，我只想補充一點，這些飛機的平均機齡仍不到 3 歲。時間還很充裕。這些是長期合同。我們做出了重大改進。您提到了耐久性的改進，顯然，我們在查看這些合同時將其考慮在內。我會告訴你，當我們今天根據這些合同執行保修類型的工作時，我們在我們的前景和預訂方面一直相當保守。

So, we are confident that we're able to see the improvement fall through the bottom-line as those major overhauls begin. And we're also confident that we're able to demonstrate significant efficiencies and fuel savings that come from that engine. And we're seeing that in the campaign activity that we're engaged in currently with the engine. So we feel well-positioned with the product and the GTF Advantage, I think, only gets us in a better place as we go forward.

因此，我們有信心，隨著這些重大改革的開始，我們能夠看到利潤的改善。我們也有信心能夠展示該發動機帶來的顯著效率和燃油節省。我們在目前使用引擎參與的活動中看到了這一點。因此，我們對產品和 GTF Advantage 的定位很好，我認為，只會讓我們在前進的過程中處於更好的位置。

Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自 Myles Walton 與 UBS 的合作。

Greg, I was wondering if you could comment on the F-35 engine program progress through the course of '21. And if you get to a better point towards the end in terms of resolving some of the issues that have been raised over the last 18 months. And importantly, as sort of the NDAA starts building momentum potentially towards opening the door to ATP and GE being second source in the later part of the decade?

格雷格，我想知道你是否可以評論 F-35 發動機計劃在 21 年期間的進展。如果你在解決過去 18 個月中提出的一些問題方面取得了更好的成績。重要的是，作為 NDAA 開始建立勢頭，可能會為 ATP 和 GE 在本世紀後期成為第二來源打開大門？

Okay, Myles, it's a good question. And I would just say a couple of things that -- a couple of points I would make. First of all, we did make good progress on OEM deliveries last year. We were on contract as we exited the year for F135 deliveries. And we also made good progress, I would tell you, in the shops, in terms of supporting the overhauls. I think we had about 80 overhauls of the power modules last year, which is double what we saw in 2020. That number is going to probably double again this year.

好的，邁爾斯，這是個好問題。我只想說幾件事——我會提出的幾點。首先，去年我們在 OEM 交付方面確實取得了良好進展。當我們退出當年的 F135 交付時，我們簽訂了合同。我們也取得了很好的進展，我會告訴你，在商店裡，在支持大修方面。我認為去年我們對電源模塊進行了大約 80 次大修，是 2020 年的兩倍。今年這個數字可能會再次翻一番。

So again, we feel pretty good about the engine where it is today. Obviously, I think everybody that follows the program understands that you're going to need more power on that engine. You're going to need better fuel efficiency on that engine. And there are two different -- there are two choices, I think, in front of the services today.

因此，我們對今天的引擎感覺非常好。顯然，我認為每個關注該計劃的人都明白您將需要為該引擎提供更多動力。您將需要提高該發動機的燃油效率。在今天的服務面前，有兩種不同的選擇——我認為有兩種選擇。

One is to do an upgrade of the current engine. We call that the EEP program, which is an enhanced version of the F135 or you could see a whole new engine, which would be the adaptive engine that both GE and Pratt are currently testing. Of course, those engines are years away. We're talking late in this decade before you would ever see those on the aircraft.

一種是對當前引擎進行升級。我們稱之為 EEP 程序，它是 F135 的增強版本，或者您可以看到一個全新的引擎，這將是 GE 和 Pratt 目前正在測試的自適應引擎。當然，這些引擎還需要幾年的時間。我們談論的是本世紀末，你永遠不會在飛機上看到那些東西。

Frankly, what we think is, from a risk standpoint, a single-engine fighter, an upgrade of the current engine was probably the most cost-effective, lowest risk solution. And again, I think that's something that we're working with the customer on. We think that is a much lower cost than the adaptive engines that we're developing. And the adaptive engines are really targeted for sixth-gen fighter, which again will probably not be fielded until the end of this decade.

坦率地說，我們的想法是，從風險的角度來看，單引擎戰鬥機，升級現有引擎可能是最具成本效益、風險最低的解決方案。再一次，我認為這是我們正在與客戶合作的事情。我們認為這比我們正在開發的自適應引擎的成本要低得多。自適應引擎實際上是針對第六代戰鬥機的，而第六代戰鬥機可能要到本世紀末才會投入使用。

So again, we've got options. We're working with the customer. The first and most important thing, of course, is to keep the engines that we've got out there flying. And so we're supporting the folks out in the shops around the world making sure that, that happens and also continuing to drive OEM productions as we mature in the program.

再說一次，我們有選擇。我們正在與客戶合作。當然，首要的也是最重要的事情是讓我們的發動機保持運轉。因此，我們在世界各地的商店中為人們提供支持，以確保這種情況發生，並隨著我們在該計劃中的成熟而繼續推動 OEM 生產。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Maugeri with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Mike Maugeri。

Neil, on your cash flow guide, can you break your bridge between 2021 and 2022 down a bit further? Specifically, curious to understand the $1.4 billion figure for operational growth in CapEx. If you can add some more color around working capital as well.

尼爾，在你的現金流量指南中，你能把 2021 年和 2022 年之間的橋樑再往下拆一點嗎？具體來說，很想了解 14 億美元的資本支出運營增長數字。如果您也可以在營運資金周圍添加更多顏色。

Yes. Sure. So, a couple of comments there. The first thing is if you look at our segment profit guide at the midpoint, that's about $1.4 billion. So, think about that being the major driver of that piece of our cash flow walk. And maybe you'll see from our guidance about $400 million or so of capital expenditure headwind year-over-year, so the net of that. That would imply a few hundred million dollars of working capital improvement. I think that remains to be determined as we see the year play out. So that will either turn into higher segment profit,

是的。當然。所以，這裡有一些評論。首先，如果你看看我們的中點分部利潤指南，那大約是 14 億美元。所以，想想這是我們現金流走的那一部分的主要驅動力。也許你會從我們的指導中看到大約 4 億美元左右的資本支出同比逆風，所以淨額。這意味著需要數億美元的營運資金改善。我認為這還有待確定，因為我們會看到這一年結束。所以這要么變成更高的分部利潤，

as we get later into the year, if we are able to achieve the higher end of our range, and in particular, given the supply chain issues, we could see a little bit of working capital pressure as we bring inventory in a little bit sooner. And again, the timing of that profit recognition and the timing of collections will all play out in the fourth quarter. But I would characterize those as the three key elements of that piece of our cash walk.

隨著我們進入今年晚些時候，如果我們能夠達到我們範圍的高端，特別是考慮到供應鏈問題，我們可能會看到一些營運資金壓力，因為我們會更快地增加庫存.同樣，利潤確認的時間和收款的時間都將在第四季度結束。但我會將這些描述為我們現金走動的三個關鍵要素。

Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Greg, Neil, Jennifer, if we continue to see raw material and labor inflation at elevated levels for longer, how should we think about potential impact on margins? How much will you be able to pass through with your contracts? And how much would the businesses have to absorb?

Greg、Neil、Jennifer，如果我們繼續看到原材料和勞動力通脹處於較高水平的時間更長，我們應該如何考慮對利潤率的潛在影響？你的合同能通過多少？企業必須吸收多少？

So let me start here. First of all, we have seen inflation, obviously, I think, like everybody else. It has been higher than what we expected, I would say, towards the end of last year. As we think about 2022, we've probably got about $150 million of, I would say, price pressure from unexpected inflation in the supply chain.

所以讓我從這裡開始。首先，我們已經看到通貨膨脹，很明顯，我認為，就像其他人一樣。我想說，在去年年底，它比我們預期的要高。當我們考慮到 2022 年時，我想說，供應鏈中的意外通脹可能會帶來大約 1.5 億美元的價格壓力。

Now typically, we entered the year, and we'll see about $200 million or so of pricing pressure that we go out and we work to alleviate. I mean, the whole goal here is to keep input costs flat year-over-year. So we go out, we work cost reduction. This year, we got a little more work to do. That $150 million of inflation impact is baked into the guidance that Neil took you all through before. And it's something we're keeping an eye on.

現在，通常情況下，我們進入了這一年，我們將看到大約 2 億美元左右的定價壓力，我們將努力緩解這種壓力。我的意思是，這裡的全部目標是保持投入成本同比持平。所以我們出去，我們努力降低成本。今年，我們有更多的工作要做。 1.5 億美元的通貨膨脹影響已納入 Neil 之前為您提供的指導中。這是我們一直關注的事情。

The labor inflation, obviously, is also a little trouble. We're seeing it in our own shops. The good news is most of that, we can price it on the government side and we can pass that along to our customers. But again, there will be pressure. And what we have to do, of course, is figure out ways to continue to reduce costs. That's why we've got the CORE operating system to let us go out and find efficiencies in the factories so that we can get productivity to offset the continued pressure on wages.

顯然，勞動力通脹也有點麻煩。我們在自己的商店中看到了它。好消息是大部分，我們可以在政府方面定價，我們可以將其傳遞給我們的客戶。但同樣，會有壓力。當然，我們要做的是想辦法繼續降低成本。這就是為什麼我們擁有 CORE 操作系統讓我們走出去並在工廠中尋找效率，這樣我們就可以獲得生產力來抵消持續的工資壓力。

But again, our hope here is that we're going to see inflation start to slow down here by the back half of this year. And we'll have to keep an eye on it. And again, I think it's everybody's concern across the country right now when you see 7% inflation, that's a big headline. And we've got to keep after it.

但同樣，我們希望到今年下半年我們將看到通脹開始放緩。我們必須密切關注它。再一次，當你看到 7% 的通貨膨脹率時，我認為這是全國每個人都關心的問題，這是一個大標題。我們必須堅持下去。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Robert Spingarn 與 Melius Research 的合作。

Greg, last week, Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, was talking about hypersonic strategy and suggesting that maybe because our targets are different than China's, we need to rethink the strategy, boost glide versus air breathing. And I wanted to ask you your thoughts on this and how this might change the dynamic between Lockheed on the Boost Glide side and Raytheon on the cruise missile side?

格雷格，上週，空軍部長弗蘭克肯德爾談到了高超音速戰略，並暗示可能因為我們的目標與中國的不同，我們需要重新考慮戰略，促進滑翔而不是呼吸空氣。我想問您對此有何看法，以及這將如何改變洛克希德公司在助推滑翔方面與雷神公司在巡航導彈方面之間的動態？

Yes, that's -- that is a great question, and one I think that we're all wrestling with right now. And I would tell you there is, I would say, several different markets here. Obviously, the boost glide is an interesting market as we saw the Chinese demonstrate that capability. We've also -- of course, we've demonstrated our capability to launch an air-breathing, which is the hypersonic missile that we did the test on late last year.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，我認為我們現在都在努力解決這個問題。我會告訴你，這裡有幾個不同的市場。顯然，助推滑翔是一個有趣的市場，因為我們看到中國人展示了這種能力。我們也——當然，我們已經展示了我們發射吸氣式導彈的能力，這是我們去年年底進行測試的高超音速導彈。

I think both of those technologies are going to be funded going forward. I think most importantly, however, is what are going to be the defensive systems against hypersonics. And again, I think those are the things that will provide us the biggest opportunity, whether that's going to be directed energy, some anti-hypersonic glide vehicles things that we're working on. There's a lot of money being devoted to this.

我認為這兩種技術都將在未來得到資助。然而，我認為最重要的是針對高超音速的防禦系統。再一次，我認為這些是將為我們提供最大機會的東西，無論是定向能，還是我們正在研究的一些反高超音速滑翔飛行器。有很多錢用於此。

Unfortunately, most of it, as you can imagine, is classified. We really can't go into what those individual technologies are. But I would tell you that any defense would be a layered defense where you'd be using ground-based effectors, you'd be using ship-based effectors as well as potentially directed energy. And we're going to continue to work on that with the Air Force this year. And we'll hopefully have some interesting opportunities as the year unfolds.

不幸的是，正如您所想像的那樣，其中大部分都是機密的。我們真的無法深入了解這些單獨的技術是什麼。但我會告訴你，任何防禦都是分層防禦，你會使用地面效應器，你會使用艦載效應器以及潛在的定向能。今年我們將繼續與空軍合作。隨著這一年的展開，我們希望有一些有趣的機會。

Okay. And just a quick one for Neil, if I'm still here. Neil, I was wondering if you could clarify, maybe I didn't catch it. If there's a full year CR, what would the sensitivity be in the guidance?

好的。如果我還在這裡，就給 Neil 一個快速的。尼爾，我想知道你能否澄清一下，也許我沒聽清。如果有全年的 CR，指南中的敏感性是多少？

That's a good question. I didn't put that out there. But a couple of pieces here. First, that will expire or set to expire February 18 of this quarter. I'd see a lot of impact to the first quarter if that were to extend through March 31. Maybe $50 million to $100 million, $150 million of sales. If it were to persist through the full year, I would see probably between $500 million and $600 million of sales headwind. So, I think that underscores the importance of us getting the continuing resolution behind the country. But yes, that's how I would size it up looking at it today. And I would say that would be relatively evenly spread across our businesses, frankly. Each one of them will have some headwind as it relates to a continuing resolution that persists through the year.

這是個好問題。我沒有把它放在那裡。但是這裡有幾件。首先，它將在本季度的 2 月 18 日到期或將到期。如果第一季度持續到 3 月 31 日，我會看到很大的影響。可能是 5000 萬到 1 億美元，1.5 億美元的銷售額。如果它持續一整年，我可能會看到 5 億到 6 億美元的銷售逆風。因此，我認為這凸顯了我們在國家背後獲得持續解決方案的重要性。但是，是的，這就是我今天看它的方式。坦率地說，我會說這將相對均勻地分佈在我們的業務中。他們每個人都會遇到一些不利因素，因為它與持續一年的持續決議有關。

Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 與 Cowen 的對話。

So there's a fair amount of debate on the profile of recovery in deliveries and production of the 737 and the 787. Could you tell us approximately where your rates are today, and the type of profile you're looking for in 2022 and what you've baked into your 2022 guide?

因此，關於 737 和 787 的交付和生產恢復情況存在相當多的爭論。你能告訴我們你今天的費率大概是多少，你在 2022 年尋找的情況類型以及你'已經納入您的 2022 年指南了嗎？

Thanks, Cai, let me give you a couple of thoughts there. I don't want to get ahead of Airbus and Boeing, obviously, but let me start with the 737. Obviously, we ended the year sort of in the high teens per month range. We are aligned with Boeing in terms of that, growing to that rate 31 in the second half of the year. So I'll leave it at that for now, but we do see obviously growth there in the back half of the year and it kind of gradually grows through the first half.

謝謝，蔡，讓我給你一些想法。顯然，我不想領先於空中客車和波音，但讓我先從 737 開始。顯然，我們在年終時每月處於十幾歲左右。我們在這方面與波音保持一致，在今年下半年增長到 31。所以我暫時保留它，但我們確實看到今年下半年明顯增長，並且在上半年逐漸增長。

On the 787, as we talked about it last call, we had -- we were shipping very, very little, if any, on the 787. We ended the year in the, call it, low single-digit per month shipset rate. We are anticipating that same type of rate through 2022. Because of inventory that is in the channel, I think a good estimate would be about two per month as you think about the full year for 2022.

在 787 上，正如我們在上次電話會議上談到的那樣，我們有——我們在 787 上的出貨量非常非常少，如果有的話。我們以每月低個位數的出貨率結束了這一年。我們預計到 2022 年將保持相同類型的利率。由於渠道中存在庫存，我認為當您考慮 2022 年全年時，一個好的估計是每月大約兩個。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess, Neil, when you spoke, I think, back in November and kind of talked about the outlook for the segments for the year, did that change very much? I'm thinking specifically about the progression of the aftermarket recovery. Did that change very much as a result of the emergence of Omicron? And I guess, is there any kind of information or new information kind of underlying the level of confidence that you have about the international travel recovery this year?

我想，尼爾，我想當你在 11 月發表講話時談到了今年各細分市場的前景，情況是否發生了很大變化？我正在特別考慮售後市場復甦的進展。 Omicron 的出現是否使這種情況發生了很大變化？我想，是否有任何信息或新信息可以支持您對今年國際旅行複甦的信心水平？

Yes. Let me start with the first point. So a couple of things have definitely changed since that early November time frame. And I'd say the first was the variant, Omicron, clearly came on quick. We hope that it will go away quickly as well. But I think we've factored some of that thinking into the first quarter.

是的。讓我從第一點開始。因此，自 11 月初的時間框架以來，有幾件事肯定發生了變化。我想說第一個是變體 Omicron，顯然很快就出現了。我們希望它也能盡快消失。但我認為我們已經將其中的一些想法納入了第一季度。

As I look at today's outlook relative to where we were thinking a few months ago, we see a little bit slower recovery in the first quarter than we were thinking, but we do see that getting back to where sort of the line we were projecting from Q2 and beyond. So we'll see how that plays out.

當我看看今天的前景與我們幾個月前的想法相比時，我們看到第一季度的複蘇比我們想像的要慢一些，但我們確實看到回到了我們預測的那種線Q2及以後。所以我們將看看結果如何。

Again, I said last year, a lot of this depends on airlines getting ready for the summer travel season. So, we are expecting to see an uptick in their behavior for provisioning and parts here in March and April, which sort of gets to your second question there, in terms of the support underlying the reopening of international borders.

同樣，我去年說過，這在很大程度上取決於航空公司是否為夏季旅遊旺季做好準備。因此，我們預計他們在 3 月和 4 月的供應和零件行為會有所上升，這就涉及到您那裡的第二個問題，即支持重新開放國際邊界。

We have seen reopenings of some international borders in the fourth quarter, and that's encouraging, in particular, Europe. And as Greg mentioned earlier, the key, I think, to us realizing what we've laid out here today is Asia Pacific opening up and the long-haul routes coming back in earnest as we get towards the end of the year here.

我們已經看到一些國際邊界在第四季度重新開放，這令人鼓舞，尤其是歐洲。正如格雷格之前提到的，我認為，讓我們意識到我們今天在這裡所做的事情的關鍵是亞太地區的開放和長途航線在我們接近年底時認真回歸。

So, we'll have to wait and see. But certainly, sometime in the March and April time frame is when we would expect to see an uptick that would drive the ranges that we're predicting here for Collins in particular.

所以，我們必須拭目以待。但可以肯定的是，在 3 月和 4 月的某個時間段內，我們預計會出現上漲，這將推動我們在這里特別是為柯林斯預測的範圍。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Matt Akers。

I was wondering if you could just comment on the new Asheville facility. And I guess, specifically, how far are we sort of through the investment there? And how do you think of sort of the ramp-up of production at that facility?

我想知道你是否可以對新的阿什維爾設施發表評論。我想，具體來說，我們在那裡的投資有多遠？您如何看待該工廠的產量提升？

Make great progress there in Asheville. The building is up. And I was looking at it the other day, actually, and I have visibility to that via webcam. And it's in great shape, so we're on track. Some of the CapEx favorability that we saw here in 2021 is the deferral of some of that spend into 2022. But I'd say we're on track there to stand up that facility and get the production going as we had planned to do. So, it's really a good shape.

在阿什維爾取得長足進步。大樓起來了事實上，前幾天我在看它，我可以通過網絡攝像頭看到它。它的狀態很好，所以我們走上了正軌。我們在 2021 年在這裡看到的一些資本支出優勢是將部分支出推遲到 2022 年。但我想說我們正朝著建立該設施並按照我們計劃進行生產的方向發展。所以，這真的是一個很好的形狀。

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自 Doug Harned 與 Bernstein 的對話。

I'd like to go back to the Geared Turbofan and the aftermarket outlook. You've been delivering your turbofans now for about 6 years. And if we go back to the earlier days of the design, one of the big advantages was going to be because of the year, you have fewer stages and in principle, lower maintenance costs. So that -- the thinking was, as I understood it back then, that could lead to higher margins in the aftermarket as you go forward. First, do you still see it that way? And if so, when should we see margins in the aftermarket for the GTF get to the levels we've seen on the V2500?

我想回到 Geared Turbofan 和售後市場前景。您交付渦輪風扇發動機已有大約 6 年的時間了。如果我們回到設計的早期階段，其中一個很大的優勢就是因為這一年，你的階段更少，原則上維護成本更低。所以——正如我當時所理解的那樣，隨著你的前進，這可能會導致售後市場的利潤率更高。首先，你還這麼看嗎？如果是這樣，我們什麼時候才能看到 GTF 售後市場的利潤率達到我們在 V2500 上看到的水平？

Doug, that's an interesting question. Obviously, when we originally -- the original design of GTF, there were a couple of different priorities. One, obviously, was fuel burn. That was a 15% benefit over the V2500. We clearly achieved that. What we did not achieve, I would say, in the first few years of delivery was a robust engine. We had teething problems, as we've talked about, primarily around the combustor and primarily in some of the more difficult environments like India.

道格，這是一個有趣的問題。顯然，當我們最初——GTF 的最初設計時，有幾個不同的優先級。很明顯，其中之一是燃料燃燒。這比 V2500 高出 15%。我們顯然做到了這一點。我想說，在交付的頭幾年，我們沒有實現的是一個強大的引擎。正如我們所討論的那樣，我們遇到了初期問題，主要是在燃燒室周圍，而且主要是在印度等一些更困難的環境中。

And so of course, that impacted the aftermarket as we brought those engines back, sometimes within a year or 2 of shipping them to update the combustor. Right now, I would tell you the combustors there are lasting at least 10,000 hours now, which is good news. And we're starting to see that already in these -- in the aftermarket contracts.

當然，這影響了售後市場，因為我們將這些發動機帶回來，有時在運送它們後的一兩年內更新燃燒室。現在，我會告訴你那裡的燃燒室現在至少可以使用 10,000 小時，這是個好消息。我們已經開始在售後市場合同中看到這一點。

As you said though, as Neil said before, the average age is only about 3 years on these GTFs. So, we're not seeing the overhaul activity in a significant number yet, but we will in the coming 2 or 3 years. And I think you'll start to see margins improve in the aftermarket once we start going through and doing the heavier overhauls.

正如你所說，正如尼爾之前所說，這些 GTF 的平均年齡只有 3 歲左右。因此，我們還沒有看到大量的檢修活動，但我們會在未來 2 或 3 年內看到。而且我認為，一旦我們開始進行更大規模的大修，您就會開始看到售後市場的利潤率有所提高。

Will they ever get to the same level of profitability as the V2500? Absolutely. It's just going to -- keep in mind, the V2500 has been out there for 30 years. It's not a brand-new engine. It's a very, very durable engine. And it's just it will take us time to get the number of engines out there to drive the kind of efficiencies in the aftermarket. But we fully expect. It's a great design. It gives the fuel burn, and it does, to your earlier point, have fewer moving parts, right about 1,500 fewer blades than the competing engines, and that should and will reduce costs over the long term.

他們能否達到與 V2500 相同的盈利水平？絕對地。它只是——請記住，V2500 已經問世 30 年了。它不是全新的引擎。這是一個非常非常耐用的引擎。只是我們需要時間來獲得發動機的數量，以提高售後市場的效率。但我們滿懷期待。這是一個很棒的設計。它可以燃燒燃料，而且確實如您之前所說，運動部件更少，比競爭發動機少大約 1,500 個葉片，從長遠來看，這應該而且將會降低成本。

This does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Hayes for closing remarks.

這確實結束了我們的問答環節。我現在想把電話轉回給 Greg Hayes 先生作結束語。

Okay. Thank you, Lisa, and thanks, everybody, for listening in today. Again, a lot of moving pieces, but we have high confidence in the outlook that Neil and Jennifer took you guys through. Look forward to hearing from many of you in the coming days and weeks. Jennifer and the team will be, of course, available all day today and tomorrow to take whatever follow-up questions you might have. Have a wonderful day and stay healthy. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，麗莎，也謝謝大家今天的收聽。同樣，有很多動人的片段，但我們對 Neil 和 Jennifer 帶領你們度過的前景充滿信心。期待在接下來的幾天和幾週內收到你們中許多人的來信。當然，Jennifer 和他的團隊今天和明天全天都可以回答您可能提出的任何後續問題。祝你有美好的一天，保持健康。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。