雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加雷神科技公司 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。

My name is Deborah, and I will be your operator today.

我叫黛博拉，今天我將成為您的接線生。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chief Executive Officer; and Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的是執行長 Greg Hayes；和財務長尼爾·米切爾。

This call is being carried live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies website at www.rtx.com.

這次電話會議正在網路上直播，並且可以從雷神科技公司網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding net nonrecurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments, often referred to by management as other significant items.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括淨非經常性和/或重大項目以及收購會計調整，管理層通常將其稱為其他重要項目。

The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述均面臨風險和不確定性。

RTC's SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

RTC 向 SEC 提交的文件，包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

(Operator Instructions) With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

（操作員指示）接下來，我會將電話轉給海耶斯先生。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Deborah, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝黛博拉，大家早安。

Before we jump in, I'd just like to take a couple of minutes to acknowledge the news that most of you saw yesterday of Dr. Kennedy's retirement as Executive Chairman of the Board effective June 1 of this year.

在我們開始之前，我想花幾分鐘時間向大家通報大家昨天看到的消息：肯尼迪博士從董事會執行主席的職位上退休，並於今年 6 月 1 日生效。

As you've all heard me tell the story, it was just over 2 years ago that Dr. Kennedy called me to suggest that we merge our 2 companies.

就像你們都聽過我講的故事一樣，就在兩年多前，甘迺迪博士打電話給我，建議我們合併兩家公司。

You could see then that in combining our talent, technologies and capabilities that we would have the breadth and scale to meet any industry challenge in aerospace and defense.

您可以看到，透過結合我們的人才、技術和能力，我們將擁有足夠的廣度和規模來應對航空航太和國防領域的任何產業挑戰。

Little did either of us realize then, of course, how quickly a global pandemic would put that value proposition to the test.

當然，我們當時都沒有意識到，全球大流行會以多快的速度讓這個價值主張受到考驗。

And yet here we stand today 1 year post merger, and we've made substantial progress not only in integrating their 2 heritage companies, but also managing through an unprecedented downturn in commercial aerospace, all the while identifying new technology synergies and establishing an operational rhythm that allows us to meet many of the goals sooner than what we had expected just a year ago.

然而，合併一年後的今天，我們不僅在整合兩家傳統公司方面取得了實質進展，而且在應對商業航空航太領域前所未有的低迷方面取得了重大進展，同時確定了新技術協同效應並建立了營運節奏這使我們能夠比一年前的預期更快地實現許多目標。

So I want to thank Dr. Kennedy for his leadership, partnership and stewardship throughout this merger and congratulate him on a distinguished 38-year career with Raytheon.

因此，我要感謝肯尼迪博士在整個合併過程中的領導、合作和管理，並祝賀他在雷神公司 38 年的傑出職業生涯。

We wish you well, Tom.

我們祝你一切順利，湯姆。

I'd also like to officially welcome Neil Mitchill in his new role as Chief Financial Officer, though most of you, of course, already know Neil.

我還要正式歡迎尼爾米切爾 (Neil Mitchill) 擔任財務官，儘管你們中的大多數人當然已經認識尼爾了。

He's not new to the call.

他對這通電話並不陌生。

Toby O'Brien stepped down earlier this month, and we thank him for all of his contributions as we form Raytheon Technologies.

托比·奧布萊恩於本月初辭職，我們感謝他在我們成立雷神技術公司期間所做的所有貢獻。

Many on this call also know that Neil was our interim CFO at UTC prior to the merger.

這次電話會議中的許多人也知道，在合併之前，Neil 是 UTC 的臨時財務長。

And since then, he's led the IR and financial planning functions.

從那時起，他領導了投資者關係和財務規劃職能。

I'm very pleased to have him as our CFO, and I look forward to working together as we continue the integration and cost initiatives that will capture the full value of the Raytheon Technologies company.

我很高興他擔任我們的財務官，我期待與他一起工作，繼續實施整合和成本計劃，以實現雷神技術公司的全部價值。

Lastly, I'd also like to welcome our new Head of Investor Relations, Jennifer Reed.

最後，我還要歡迎我們新任投資人關係主管 Jennifer Reed。

Jennifer, for the past year, has led our integration team.

Jennifer 在過去的一年裡領導了我們的整合團隊。

She was Vice President of Integration.

她是整合副總裁。

She was responsible for the financial and operational planning activities related to the merger and do a wonderful job, and we'll hear more about that later.

她負責與合併相關的財務和營運規劃活動，做得非常出色，我們稍後會聽到更多相關資訊。

So I think that completes the HR section of the call.

我認為本次電話會議的人力資源部分就到此結束了。

Let me move on to the numbers.

讓我繼續討論數字。

Let's take a look at Slide 2, please.

請讓我們看一下投影片 2。

So as I mentioned, earlier this month, embarked the 1-year anniversary of the merger's closing.

正如我所提到的，本月早些時候，我們迎來了合併完成一周年紀念日。

And I'm proud of the major accomplishments and progress made by our employees and business leaders, who came together from across our businesses to execute as a single team.

我為我們的員工和業務領導者所取得的重大成就和進步感到自豪，他們來自我們各個業務部門，作為一個團隊共同執行。

Our ability to adjust to the unique circumstances and stay nimble in this very dynamic operating environment has served us and our investors and customers well.

我們能夠適應獨特的環境並在這個充滿活力的營運環境中保持靈活性，這為我們以及我們的投資者和客戶提供了良好的服務。

With that, let me take you through the performance and some highlights from the quarter.

接下來，讓我向您介紹本季的表現和一些亮點。

I'm pleased to say that we've had a really strong start to the year.

我很高興地說，今年我們有一個非常強勁的開局。

And we're seeing continued momentum with signs of economic recovery and incremental improvements in domestic aerospace markets, with international markets, of course, remaining challenged.

我們看到經濟復甦的跡象和國內航空航太市場逐步改善的持續勢頭，當然，國際市場仍然面臨挑戰。

As you saw from the press release this morning, we delivered strong quarterly sales, adjusted EPS and free cash flow, all of which exceeded our expectations from earlier this year.

正如您從今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們實現了強勁的季度銷售額、調整後的每股收益和自由現金流，所有這些都超出了我們今年早些時候的預期。

And while it is still early in the year, the rate of vaccine distribution and signs of travel recovery within key domestic markets, specifically the U.S. and China, are better than what we expected just 3 months ago.

儘管現在還處於今年年初，但主要國內市場（特別是美國和中國）的疫苗分發率和旅行復甦跡像都比我們三個月前的預期好。

In the U.S., daily TSA traffic has averaged about 1.4 million people a day since the beginning of April, nearly double the levels of January of this year.

在美國，自 4 月初以來，TSA 日均客流量約為 140 萬人次，幾乎是今年 1 月的兩倍。

So we're headed in the right direction with key metrics improving, but we continue to monitor recovery indications around the world and engage with our customers as they prepare for this recovery.

因此，我們正朝著正確的方向前進，關鍵指標不斷改善，但我們將繼續監測世界各地的復甦跡象，並在客戶為復甦做準備時與他們互動。

On the defense side, happy to say our backlog remains robust at more than $65 billion.

在國防方面，我們很高興地說我們的積壓訂單仍然強勁，超過 650 億美元。

These encouraging trends in commercial aerospace and our Q1 performance gives us confidence to raise the low end of our full year sales range by $0.5 billion to $63.9 billion, bringing our new sales range for the year at $63.9 billion to $65.4 billion.

商業航空航太領域的這些令人鼓舞的趨勢和我們第一季的業績使我們有信心將全年銷售額範圍的下限提高5 億美元至639 億美元，從而使我們今年的新銷售額範圍達到639億美元至654 億美元。

We're also going to raise the low end of our full year adjusted EPS range by $0.10 to $3.50.

我們還將全年調整後每股收益範圍的下限提高 0.10 美元至 3.50 美元。

That's up from $3.40.

價格高於 3.40 美元。

So the new range that we expect for the year is somewhere between $3.50 and $3.70.

因此，我們預計今年的新價格區間將在 3.50 美元到 3.70 美元之間。

We're going to also maintain our free cash flow outlook for the year of at least $4.5 billion, and Neil will give you a little color on all this later in the call.

我們還將維持今年至少 45 億美元的自由現金流前景，尼爾將在稍後的電話會議中向您介紹這一切。

On the capital deployment front, after a better expected start to earnings and cash in Q1, we're also going to increase our share buyback plan by $0.5 billion.

在資本部署方面，在第一季獲利和現金出現更好的預期開局後，我們還將增加 5 億美元的股票回購計畫。

It will take it up to $2 billion for the year.

今年將花費高達20億美元。

During the first quarter, of course, we did resume our share buyback, and we repurchased about $375 million of our stock, giving us a good start to our full year commitment.

當然，在第一季度，我們確實恢復了股票回購，回購了約 3.75 億美元的股票，為我們的全年承諾提供了良好的開端。

You also probably saw yesterday that we increased our dividend by more than 7% yesterday to $0.51 from $0.475.

您昨天可能還看到，我們昨天將股息從 0.475 美元增加了 7% 以上，達到 0.51 美元。

Since the merger last April, we've already returned over $3.2 billion to shareholders between share buyback and dividends.

自去年 4 月合併以來，我們已透過股票回購和股利向股東返還超過 32 億美元。

And we remain on track to return at least $18 billion to $20 billion to shareholders from the first 4 years following the merger.

我們仍有望在合併後的頭 4 年向股東回報至少 180 億至 200 億美元。

We also continue to execute well on our synergy programs during the quarter.

本季我們也繼續良好地執行我們的協同計劃。

We achieved nearly $200 million of incremental RTX merger synergies, bringing the total since the merger of up to $440 million.

我們實現了近 2 億美元的增量 RTX 合併綜效，使合併以來的綜效總額達到 4.4 億美元。

And given our strong synergy capture to date and the growing opportunities that we see in the pipeline, we're going to increase our cost synergy target by $300 million, from $1 billion to $1.3 billion, and I don't think we're done yet.

鑑於我們迄今為止所獲得的強大協同效應以及我們在管道中看到的不斷增長的機會，我們將把成本協同目標提高3 億美元，從10 億美元增加到13 億美元，而且我認為我們還沒有完成然而。

Collins, importantly, also achieved an incremental $40 million in acquisition cost synergies in the quarter, bringing their total acquisition-related savings to $510 million since the deal closed in November of 2018.

重要的是，柯林斯本季也實現了 4,000 萬美元的收購成本協同增效，自 2018 年 11 月交易結束以來，收購相關節省總額達到 5.1 億美元。

Lastly, we continue to strategically shape our portfolio with a focus on higher growth, higher technology businesses.

最後，我們繼續策略性地塑造我們的投資組合，並專注於更高成長、更高技術的業務。

We did close on the Forcepoint divestiture earlier this year.

今年早些時候，我們確實完成了 Forcepoint 的剝離。

That brought in about $1.1 billion in gross tax -- gross proceeds without the tax benefit.

這帶來了約 11 億美元的總稅收——沒有稅收優惠的總收益。

And we will continue to be disciplined in M&A as we evaluate both strategic acquisitions as well as strategic divestitures.

在評估策略收購和策略剝離時，我們將繼續遵守併購紀律。

And with that, let me turn it over to Neil.

接下來，讓我把它交給尼爾。

Mr. Mitchill.

米切爾先生。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

I'm happy to be on the call today in my new capacity as CFO, and I look forward to our continued partnership as we continue to capture the full value of RTX.

我很高興今天以財務長的新身分參加電話會議，我期待我們繼續保持合作關係，因為我們將繼續發揮 RTX 的全部價值。

With that, I'm on Slide 3. Let me take you through our financial results.

接下來是投影片 3。讓我向您介紹我們的財務表現。

I'm pleased with where we landed for the quarter, exceeding expectations on our key metrics.

我對本季的業績感到滿意，關鍵指標超出了預期。

And as we've mentioned previously, Q1 will be the last quarter of tough compares for our commercial aero businesses resulting from the onset of the pandemic last year.

正如我們之前提到的，第一季將是我們的商業航空業務因去年大流行爆發而面臨艱難比較的最後一個季度。

Q1 sales were $15.3 billion, above the midpoint of the outlook we provided in January.

第一季銷售額為 153 億美元，高於我們 1 月預測的中位數。

Adjusted EPS was $0.90 per share, ahead of our expectations, driven by better-than-expected operating profit at all 4 of our businesses as well as favorability in some corporate items.

調整後每股收益為 0.90 美元，超出我們的預期，這是由於我們所有 4 項業務的營業利潤好於預期以及對某些公司項目的青睞所推動的。

On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.51 per share and included $0.39 of net nonrecurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments.

以 GAAP 計算，持續經營業務每股收益為 0.51 美元，其中包括 0.39 美元的淨非經常性和/或重大項目以及收購會計調整。

Free cash flow of $336 million exceeded our expectations primarily due to better-than-expected working capital timing, most notably the timing of collections across the businesses.

3.36 億美元的自由現金流超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於營運資金的時機好於預期，尤其是各企業的收款時機。

So with that, let me take you through the segment results.

那麼，讓我帶您了解一下細分結果。

Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 4. Sales were $4.4 billion in the quarter, down 32% on an adjusted basis and down 31% on an organic basis driven primarily by the expected adverse impact of COVID-19 on the commercial aerospace industry.

從幻燈片 4 上的柯林斯航空航天公司開始。本季銷售額為 44 億美元，調整後下降 32%，有機下降 31%，這主要是由於 COVID-19 對商業航空航天業的預期不利影響。

By channel, commercial OE sales were down 45%, again, driven principally by the impact of the current environment.

按通路劃分，商業 OE 銷售額再次下降 45%，這主要是受當前環境的影響。

Commercial aftermarket sales were down 43% driven by a 39% decline in parts and repair, a 66% decline in provisioning and a 32% decline in modifications and upgrades.

商業售後市場銷售額下降了 43%，因為零件和維修下降了 39%，配置下降了 66%，改裝和升級下降了 32%。

Sequentially, however, commercial aftermarket sales were up 11% driven by growth in parts and repair and modifications and upgrades.

然而，在零件、維修、改裝和升級成長的推動下，商業售後市場銷售額隨後增長了 11%。

Defense sales were down 3% on an adjusted basis but up 4% organically.

調整後的國防銷售下降了 3%，但有機增加了 4%。

Organic growth was driven by F-35 as well as growth in several avionics product lines.

有機成長是由 F-35 以及多個航空電子產品線的成長所推動的。

Adjusted operating profit of $332 million was down $952 million from prior year and better than our expectations for the quarter driven by continued cost control and favorable sales mix.

調整後營業利潤為 3.32 億美元，比去年同期減少 9.52 億美元，優於我們對本季的預期，這得益於持續的成本控制和有利的銷售組合。

On a year-over-year basis, cost control as well as lower E&D and SG&A were more than offset by lower commercial aftermarket and OE sales volume.

與去年同期相比，成本控制以及較低的 E&D 和 SG&A 被較低的商業售後市場和原廠銷售所抵消。

Looking ahead to the rest of the year.

展望今年剩餘時間。

With a solid start in Q1 and improving trends on the commercial side, we are increasing the low end of Collins' sales outlook from a prior range of down high to low single digit to a new range of down mid- to low single digit.

隨著第一季的良好開局和商業方面趨勢的改善，我們將柯林斯銷售前景的下限從先前的高至低個位數下調至新的中至低個位數區間。

And based on our first quarter cost containment measures and those improving trends on the commercial side, we're also increasing the low end of Collins' operating profit outlook by $75 million to a new range of down $200 million to up $25 million.

根據我們第一季的成本控制措施和商業方面的改善趨勢，我們也將柯林斯營業利潤前景的下限上調了 7,500 萬美元，達到下調 2 億美元至上調 2,500 萬美元的新區間。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 5. Sales of $4 billion were in line with expectations.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的普惠公司。銷售額 40 億美元符合預期。

Year-over-year sales were down 24% on an adjusted basis and down 25% on an organic basis also driven by the expected adverse impact of the current environment on the industry.

調整後銷售額較去年同期下降 24%，有機銷售額下降 25%，這也是由於當前環境對產業的預期不利影響所致。

Commercial OEM sales were down 40% driven by lower deliveries across most of Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada platforms.

由於普拉特大部分大型商用引擎和普拉特加拿大平台的交付量下降，商業 OEM 銷售額下降了 40%。

Commercial aftermarket sales were down 35% in the quarter driven by an expected decline in shop visits.

由於商店客流量預期下降，本季商業售後市場銷售額下降 35%。

But growth in the GTF aftermarket volume was more than offset by the impact of a reduction in legacy large commercial engine shop visits of 38% and a 28% reduction in Pratt Canada shop visits.

但 GTF 售後市場銷量的成長被傳統大型商用引擎商店訪問量減少 38% 和普拉特加拿大商店訪問量減少 28% 的影響所抵消。

In our military business, sales were up 1% on higher F135 aftermarket, partially offset by lower volume across certain development programs.

在我們的軍事業務中，由於 F135 售後市場的成長，銷售額成長了 1%，但部分被某些開發項目的銷售下降所抵消。

Pratt's adjusted operating profit of $40 million was down $475 million from the prior year.

Pratt 調整後營業利潤為 4,000 萬美元，比前一年減少 4.75 億美元。

Significant aftermarket volume reductions and fixed cost headwinds more than offset continued cost containment measures, including reductions in G&A and E&D.

售後市場銷售的大幅減少和固定成本的不利因素足以抵消持續的成本控制措施，包括一般管理費用和 E&D 的減少。

Looking ahead, with a solid start in Q1 and improving trends on the commercial side of the business here, too, we are also increasing the low end of Pratt's full year sales outlook from a prior range of flat to up mid-single digit to a new range of up low to mid-single digits.

展望未來，隨著第一季度的良好開局以及業務商業方面的趨勢改善，我們還將普拉特全年銷售前景的下限從之前的持平到中個位數的範圍提高到了新範圍的低至中個位數。

And we are increasing the low end of Pratt's operating profit outlook by $50 million to a new range of down $75 million to up $25 million.

我們將普拉特營業利潤預期的下限上調了 5,000 萬美元，達到下調 7,500 萬美元至上調 2,500 萬美元的新區間。

Turning now to Slide 6. First, I'll remind everyone that the percentage of completion reset at the merger date continues to impact the compares for both sales and operating profit at the legacy Raytheon businesses.

現在轉向投影片 6。首先，我要提醒大家，合併日重置的完成百分比繼續影響雷神公司傳統業務的銷售和營業利潤的比較。

With that, Raytheon Intelligence & Space sales were $3.8 billion, up 2% versus the prior year on an adjusted pro forma basis and better than our expectations for the quarter driven by higher volume in sensing and effects, particularly airborne ISR.

至此，雷神公司情報與航太部門的銷售額為38 億美元，按調整後的預估計算，較上年增長2%，好於我們對本季度的預期，這是由於感測和效應（尤其是機載ISR）銷售量增加所致。

Operating profit in the quarter was $388 million, down $11 million year-over-year on an adjusted pro forma basis and a little better than expected due to higher sales volume.

該季度營業利潤為 3.88 億美元，經調整後預計將年減 1,100 萬美元，由於銷量增加，略好於預期。

It's worth noting that sequentially, the ROS at RIS improved 110 basis points to 10.3%.

值得注意的是，RIS 的 ROS 連續提高了 110 個基點，達到 10.3%。

RIS had bookings in the quarter of $3.7 billion, resulting in a backlog of $19.2 billion.

RIS 本季的訂單量為 37 億美元，導致積壓 192 億美元。

Significant bookings included approximately $1.4 billion on classified programs as well as several other notable awards.

重要的預訂包括約 14 億美元的分類節目以及其他幾個著名獎項。

Our Q1 book-to-bill was 1.08.

我們第一季的訂單出貨比為 1.08。

And looking ahead, we remain confident in our full year outlook for RIS with sales growing low to mid-single digit and operating profit growing $125 million to $175 million versus adjusted pro forma 2020.

展望未來，我們對 RIS 的全年前景仍然充滿信心，與調整後的 2020 年預估相比，銷售額將實現低至中個位數增長，營業利潤將增長 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元。

Turning now to Slide 7. Raytheon Missiles & Defense sales were $3.8 billion, up 3% versus prior year on an adjusted pro forma basis and better than expected due to higher volume across multiple mission areas.

現在轉向投影片 7。雷神公司飛彈和國防銷售額為 38 億美元，經調整後的預估基礎上比上年增長 3%，並且由於多個任務領域的銷量增加而好於預期。

Adjusted operating profit was $496 million, also better than expected and down $43 million year-over-year on an adjusted pro forma basis due to the absence of a favorable prior year contract settlement and the EAC reset impact that I mentioned.

調整後營業利潤為 4.96 億美元，也好於預期，但由於沒有有利的上一年合約結算以及我提到的 EAC 重置影響，調整後的預計營業利潤同比下降 4300 萬美元。

RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $2.5 billion, resulting in a backlog of $27.7 billion.

RMD 本季的預訂量約為 25 億美元，導致積壓 277 億美元。

Significant bookings in the quarter included an award of approximately $520 million for AMRAAM for the U.S. Air Force, the Navy and international customers and an award of about $250 million to provide Patriot engineering services support for the U.S. Army and international customers.

本季度的重大訂單包括為美國空軍、海軍和國際客戶提供約 5.2 億美元的 AMRAAM 訂單，以及為美國陸軍和國際客戶提供約 2.5 億美元的愛國者工程服務支援。

It's also worth noting that RMD's industry team was down-selected for the Next Generation Interceptor award, and we expect to book that award in the second quarter for over $1 billion.

另外值得注意的是，RMD 的行業團隊落選了下一代攔截器獎，我們預計將在第二季以超過 10 億美元的價格預訂該獎項。

Book-to-bill was 0.68 in the quarter as expected, as we continue to deliver against the previously awarded multiyear production contracts.

本季的訂單出貨比為 0.68，符合預期，因為我們繼續履行先前授予的多年生產合約。

Before moving on, I'd also like to make a comment on the previously disclosed ongoing DOJ investigation into cost accounting matters at legacy Raytheon Company's former Integrated Defense Systems business, or IDS, which is now part of RMD.

在繼續之前，我還想對先前披露的司法部正在進行的對雷神公司前綜合防禦系統業務 (IDS) 成本會計問題的調查發表評論，該業務現已成為 RMD 的一部分。

As you'll see in our upcoming 10-Q filing later today, the investigation includes potential civil liability for defective pricing for 3 contracts entered into between 2011 and 2013 by IDS.

正如您將在我們今天晚些時候即將發布的 10-Q 文件中看到的那樣，調查包括 IDS 在 2011 年至 2013 年期間簽訂的 3 份合約的定價缺陷的潛在民事責任。

We provided for our best estimate related to this matter in connection with the finalization of purchase accounting during the quarter.

我們根據本季採購會計的最終確定，提供了與此事相關的最佳估計。

Additionally, as part of the same investigation, we recently received a second subpoena relating to a different IDS contract from 2017.

此外，作為同一調查的一部分，我們最近收到了第二張傳票，涉及 2017 年的另一份 IDS 合約。

We do not currently believe the resolution of this matter will result in a material impact to our financial condition, and we will continue to cooperate fully with the government's investigation.

我們目前認為此事的解決不會對我們的財務狀況造成重大影響，我們將繼續全力配合政府的調查。

So turning back to RMD's full year outlook.

那麼回到 RMD 的全年展望。

We continue to expect RMD sales to grow low to mid-single digit and operating profit to grow $25 million to $75 million versus adjusted pro forma 2020.

我們仍預期 RMD 銷售額將達到低至中個位數成長，營業利潤將比調整後的 2020 年預計成長 2,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元。

And finally, for your reference, we've included an updated outlook for each segment in the webcast appendix.

最後，為了供您參考，我們在網路廣播附錄中包含了每個部分的更新展望。

With that, moving to Slide 8, let me update you on how we see the current environment as we look ahead at the rest of the year.

接下來，請前往投影片 8，讓我向您介紹我們在展望今年剩餘時間時如何看待當前環境。

Starting with our merger synergies.

從我們的合併協同效應開始。

As Greg said, we are increasing our gross merger cost synergy target to $1.3 billion.

正如 Greg 所說，我們將合併總成本協同目標提高到 13 億美元。

And that's due to higher expected synergy capture in our corporate office and segment consolidation as well as additional opportunities we've identified in the supply chain and footprint consolidation and in IT.

這是由於我們公司辦公室和部門整合中預期的協同效應更高，以及我們在供應鏈和足跡整合以及 IT 領域發現的其他機會。

And keep in mind, that's on top of $600 million of Rockwell Collins acquisition synergies.

請記住，這還不包括羅克韋爾柯林斯 6 億美元的收購綜效。

Additionally, we continue to see the benefits of the cost actions we took last year.

此外，我們繼續看到去年採取的成本行動的好處。

We're making solid progress on the structural cost reduction actions we previously announced while, at the same time, working additional opportunities to drive further cost out of the business.

我們在先前宣布的結構性成本削減行動方面取得了紮實的進展，同時，我們也尋找更多機會進一步降低業務成本。

And moving to the commercial side of the business, the shape of the commercial aero recovery remains critical to our outlook.

轉向業務的商業方面，商業航空復甦的形式仍然對我們的前景至關重要。

As Greg mentioned, we're encouraged by the pace of the vaccine distribution, and we're seeing signs of increasing travel demand, particularly on many domestic routes.

正如格雷格所提到的，我們對疫苗分發的速度感到鼓舞，並且我們看到旅行需求增加的跡象，特別是在許多國內航線上。

However, we continue to watch Europe and international border reopenings.

然而，我們繼續關注歐洲和國際邊境的重新開放。

While we've seen slightly better-than-expected results to start the year, particularly at Collins as customers prepare for a strong summer travel season as well as evidence of increasing future travel demand, we still need to see this demand translate to strong sequential growth in RPMs and ASMs as we head into the -- into and through the peak summer travel season.

雖然我們看到年初的業績略好於預期，特別是在柯林斯，因為客戶正在為強勁的夏季旅行季節做好準備，並且有證據表明未來旅行需求不斷增加，但我們仍然需要看到這種需求轉化為強勁的連續成長隨著夏季旅遊旺季的到來，RPM 和 ASM 的成長。

As such, the second quarter remains a critical period in determining the recovery profile for the rest of the year.

因此，第二季仍然是確定今年剩餘時間復甦前景的關鍵時期。

Looking longer term, we continue to expect that it will take until at least 2023 for commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels.

從長遠來看，我們仍然預期商業流量至少要到 2023 年才能恢復到 2019 年的水準。

For the defense side of our business, we continue to expect both domestic and international program growth to remain robust as evidenced by our over $65 billion defense backlog.

對於我們業務的國防方面，我們繼續預期國內和國際專案成長將保持強勁，我們超過 650 億美元的國防積壓訂單就證明了這一點。

Our strength with international customers, our innovative technologies and our positions in high-growth areas gives us confidence in our ability to grow these businesses even in the current domestic budget environment.

我們在國際客戶方面的實力、我們的創新技術以及我們在高成長領域的地位使我們相信，即使在當前的國內預算環境下，我們也有能力發展這些業務。

And finally, our financial strength is underpinned by the strength of our balance sheet and supports our capital deployment commitments.

最後，我們的財務實力以資產負債表的實力為基礎，並支持我們的資本部署承諾。

Moving to Slide 9. Following our strong start to the year, we remain confident in our full year outlook.

轉向幻燈片 9。繼今年開局強勁後，我們對全年展望仍然充滿信心。

And as Greg mentioned, we are bringing up the low end of our sales range by $500 million and bringing up the low end of our adjusted EPS range by $0.10, with about $0.06 coming from the segments and the remainder coming from improvement in some corporate items.

正如格雷格所提到的，我們將銷售範圍的下限提高了5 億美元，並將調整後每股收益範圍的下限提高了0.10 美元，其中約0.06 美元來自各個部門，其餘的來自某些公司項目的改進。

Now let me just give you a little color on Q2.

現在讓我簡單介紹一下第二季的情況。

At the company level, we see sales in the range of $15.5 billion to $16 billion, adjusted EPS in the range of $0.90 to $0.95 per share and we see sequential improvement in free cash flow.

在公司層面，我們預計銷售額將在 155 億美元至 160 億美元之間，調整後每股收益將在每股 0.90 美元至 0.95 美元之間，自由現金流將連續改善。

It's also worth mentioning that we've included an updated outlook for some of the below-the-line items and an updated pension outlook that includes the impact of the latest COVID relief bill in the webcast appendix.

另外值得一提的是，我們在網路直播附錄中提供了一些線下計畫的更新展望和退休金展望，其中包括最新的新冠疫情救濟法案的影響。

And so with that, I'll hand it back to Greg to wrap things up.

就這樣，我將把它交還給格雷格來結束一切。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

So no surprise here as we think about our 2021 priorities.

因此，當我們思考 2021 年的優先事項時，這並不奇怪。

First and foremost, it's going to be to continue to support our employees, our customers, suppliers and communities, all the while continuing to invest in new technology and innovation to drive industry leadership for the long term.

首先也是最重要的，它將繼續支持我們的員工、客戶、供應商和社區，同時繼續投資新技術和創新，以長期推動產業領導地位。

I am confident in the outlook for our company.

我對我們公司的前景充滿信心。

RTX is well positioned to deliver strong sales, earnings growth and cash flow for not just this year but for the foreseeable future.

RTX 處於有利地位，不僅在今年而且在可預見的未來都能實現強勁的銷售、獲利成長和現金流。

Before we get to Q&A, just a note, we are going to have an Investor Day coming up on May 18.

在進行問答之前，請注意，我們將於 5 月 18 日舉辦投資者日。

So you'll get a chance to hear from our business unit leaders as well as on our transformation initiatives from Mike Dumais.

因此，您將有機會聽取我們業務部門領導的意見以及 Mike Dumais 介紹我們的轉型計劃。

I look forward to sharing a lot of information also on our revenue synergies and our long-term growth strategies with you at that meeting.

我期待在這次會議上與您分享有關我們的收入協同效應和長期成長策略的大量資訊。

So with that, let's turn it over to Q&A.

那麼，讓我們把它轉到問答環節。

Deborah?

黛博拉？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

（操作員說明） 第一個問題來自 Carter Copeland 和 Melius Research 的線。

Greg, I'm going to resist the urge to ask a numerical question and instead ask you about -- in light of Toby's departure and Tom's announced retirement and we're 1 year on into the merger, this is the biggest integration in the history of aerospace and defense mergers.

格雷格，我要克制住問數字問題的衝動，而是問你——鑑於托比的離開和湯姆的宣布退休，以及我們合併已經一年了，這是歷史上最大的整合航空航天和國防合併。

And you've been obviously trying to do a lot of that virtually.

顯然，您一直在嘗試以虛擬方式做很多事情。

With respect to what still needs to be done and what has yet to be accomplished, where do things stand in that regard, and where do you want them to go?

至於還需要做什麼和尚未完成什麼，目前情況如何？您希望它們走向何方？

Have things surprised you along the way that have led to any change relative to where the plan was?

在此過程中是否有一些事情讓您感到驚訝並導致相對於計劃的任何改變？

Just anything you can give us to help us understand where that is in its process, aside from the cost synergies and some of the numerical pieces, but more the integration of the 2 companies culturally.

除了成本綜效和一些數位部分之外，您可以提供任何資訊來幫助我們了解流程的具體情況，更多的是兩家公司在文化上的整合。

Yes.

是的。

Carter, it's something that we have spent a lot of time on over these past 12 months.

Carter，過去 12 個月我們在這方面花了大量時間。

We're fortunate I got Jen Reed sitting here with me, who has been leading that integration effort.

我們很幸運，Jen Reed 坐在我身邊，她一直在領導整合工作。

I would tell you, we've realized over $400 million of cost synergies, but there is a lot of work yet to do.

我想說的是，我們已經實現了超過 4 億美元的成本協同效應，但還有很多工作要做。

We've done many of the hard things in terms of reducing staff, making sure the policies are consistent but, again, not done with that.

我們在減少人員、確保政策一致方面做了許多困難的事情，但同樣，我們還沒有完成這些工作。

I think the biggest opportunities we still have are on the digital front, where we have a lot of work to do to reduce the number of data centers.

我認為我們仍然擁有的最大機會是在數位領域，我們在減少資料中心的數量方面還有很多工作要做。

We just made a big investment to try and reduce the data centers from more than 30 to less than a dozen.

我們剛剛進行了大量投資，試圖將資料中心從30多個減少到不到12個。

We're also working on what we call the digital thread, that is, how do you connect everything from product development through operations, supply chain and sustainment.

我們也正在研究所謂的數位主線，也就是如何連接從產品開發到營運、供應鏈和維護的一切。

And lastly, I would tell you, it is rolling out our common operating system.

最後，我想告訴你，它正在推出我們的通用作業系統。

You'll hear more about this in May, but we do need a common operating system.

您將在五月聽到更多相關訊息，但我們確實需要一個通用作業系統。

We have 178 manufacturing facilities around the world, and we had to work to do to consolidate those yet.

我們在全球擁有 178 個製造工廠，我們也必須努力鞏固這些工廠。

We're making good progress, but it is going to take us some time.

我們正在取得良好進展，但這需要一些時間。

It will take us a full 4 years to realize the $1.3 billion of synergy savings.

我們需要整整 4 年的時間才能實現 13 億美元的協同節約。

We made good progress on identifying savings related to procurement, both product and non-product cost reduction.

我們在確定與採購相關的節約（產品和非產品成本降低）方面取得了良好進展。

All of those things are on track.

所有這些事情都步入正軌。

But I would just remind you, it's too early to declare victory.

但我只想提醒你，現在宣布勝利還為時過早。

And just like Collins has got now over $500 million of synergies on their way to $600 million, there's still work to do there.

就像柯林斯目前已獲得超過 5 億美元的協同效應，預計將達到 6 億美元一樣，這方面仍有工作要做。

And it's -- we're not going to declare victory.

我們不會宣布勝利。

And did you find anything in the process that has, I guess, surprised you?

我猜你在這個過程中發現了什麼讓你感到驚訝的事情嗎？

I'm just thinking about some of the charges in the legacy Raytheon defense segments and the comments you made around the DOJ subpoena regarding the pricing.

我只是在考慮雷神公司遺留國防部門的一些指控以及您圍繞司法部傳票有關定價的評論。

I mean are these things surprising to you?

我的意思是這些事情讓你感到驚訝嗎？

Well, look, first of all, just to be clear, these are contracts from 2011 through 2013.

好吧，首先要明確的是，這些是 2011 年至 2013 年的合約。

So there's always surprises like that out there when the DOJ suggested that we defectively priced some contracts.

因此，當司法部建議我們對某些合約定價有缺陷時，總是會出現類似的意外情況。

We've been doing an investigation, been working with the DOJ and I think we've appropriately provided for those exposures, as Neil mentioned.

正如尼爾所提到的，我們一直在進行調查，並與司法部合作，我認為我們已經適當地應對了這些風險。

I wouldn't call that a big surprise.

我不認為這是一個很大的驚喜。

What I would tell you, people think about the culture, and it was not that different between the aerospace businesses at legacy UTC and the defense business at Raytheon.

我想說的是，人們對文化的看法是，傳統 UTC 的航空航太業務和雷神公司的國防業務之間並沒有太大區別。

The fact is many of our customers on the defense side were the same and the cultures were the same.

事實上，我們防守端的許多客戶都是一樣的，文化也是一樣的。

I think, again, that has been a pleasant surprise in terms of how easily we have been able to integrate the 2 businesses culturally, and that process will continue.

我再次認為，就我們能夠輕鬆地在文化上整合這兩個業務而言，這真是一個驚喜，而且這個過程將繼續下去。

But I would tell you, it is going remarkably well for what is probably the largest aerospace and defense merger ever.

但我想告訴你，這可能是有史以來最大的航空航天和國防合併，進展非常順利。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的羅伯特‧斯賓加恩 (Robert Spingarn)。

Neil, for you, you're essentially guiding to EPS of around $0.90 in each quarter this year, at least if I think about what you said for Q2 against Q1.

尼爾，對你來說，你基本上指導今年每個季度的每股收益約為 0.90 美元，至少如果我考慮一下你所說的第二季度與第一季的情況。

Why isn't there more improvement from the first half to the second especially given the buyback and maybe even a slightly lower tax rate?

為什麼上​​半年到下半年沒有更多改善，特別是考慮到回購，甚至稅率可能略低？

You mentioned Q2 is going to be key for assessing the pace of the recovery.

您提到第二季將是評估復甦速度的關鍵。

So could you elaborate a little bit on what you're expecting?

那麼您能詳細說明一下您的期望嗎？

Or is this just a conservative second half guide?

或者這只是保守的下半年指南？

No, I don't think it's that.

不，我不認為是這樣的。

I think there's still 3 quarters ahead of us.

我認為我們還有 3 個季度的時間。

So I need you to keep that in mind as we look at the rest of the year.

因此，在我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我需要您牢記這一點。

We did see some promising uptick as we were in March of first quarter at Collins and Pratt.

我們確實看到了柯林斯和普拉特第一季三月的一些有希望的上升。

Some prebuy, I would call it, for the airlines ahead of the summer travel season.

我稱之為在夏季旅遊旺季之前為航空公司進行的一些預購。

But let me give you a little bit more color on Q2 specifically.

但讓我具體為您提供有關第二季度的更多資訊。

We do see segment operating profit growth somewhere between $0.03 and $0.07 for Q2, if you think about that sequentially.

如果你按順序考慮的話，我們確實看到第二季度的部門營業利潤增長在 0.03 美元到 0.07 美元之間。

We do have some headwinds on the corporate side.

我們在企業方面確實遇到了一些阻力。

So one of the things that we benefited from in the first quarter was reduced corporate expenses, in part on interest as we had better-than-expected cash flow.

因此，我們在第一季受益的事情之一是公司費用減少，部分原因是利息，因為我們的現金流量比預期好。

And so that will lower our interest for the year as well as we are being more efficient with our synergy investment spend.

因此，這將降低我們今年的利息，並且我們的協同投資支出將變得更加高效。

But those -- that spending on the synergy investment will pick up here in the second quarter.

但協同投資的支出將在第二季回升。

And so you got a few -- $0.02, $0.03 of headwind on that front in the second quarter as well.

因此，第二季在這方面也遇到了 0.02 美元、0.03 美元的阻力。

As it relates to the second half of the year, we'll have to wait and see a bit.

由於這牽涉到下半年，我們還得等等看。

But certainly, the back end of our plan contemplated a real strong summer travel season.

但可以肯定的是，我們計劃的後端考慮了一個真正強勁的夏季旅遊季節。

And that's why I think Q2 is going to be so important.

這就是為什麼我認為第二季將如此重要。

And then just on the cash flow cadence throughout the year.

然後是全年的現金流節奏。

You touched on it there, but if you could just go into perhaps a little bit more detail?

您在那裡談到了這一點，但是您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下？

Sure.

當然。

As you know, our cash flow tends to be back-end loaded as we ramp and then deliver through the year.

如您所知，我們的現金流往往會隨著我們的成長而在後端加載，然後在全年交付。

As I think about the first quarter, our free cash flow was better than we expected, probably by about $600 million, all of that attributable to improved working capital.

我對第一季的看法是，我們的自由現金流比我們預期的要好，可能增加了約 6 億美元，所有這些都歸功於營運資本的改善。

If I break that down for you, think about $300 million of that coming from better-than-expected customer collections.

如果我為您詳細分析，您會發現其中 3 億美元來自好於預期的客戶收藏。

We were happy to see some customers pay early at the end of the quarter.

我們很高興看到一些客戶在季度末提前付款。

We had a couple of hundred million dollars of improvement in disbursements timing and $100 million better improvement -- better-than-expected performance on inventory.

我們在支付時間方面取得了數億美元的改進，並在庫存方面取得了 1 億美元的改進——好於預期的績效。

So still a long ways to go to get to our full year $400 million working capital improvement but good progress.

因此，要實現全年 4 億美元的營運資金改善還有很長的路要走，但進展良好。

And as I think about Q2, I would expect to see clearly some sequential growth, probably at least doubling, and then more of that in the back half of the year as the sales continue to ramp and collections as they seasonally do ramp up.

當我想到第二季時，我預計會明顯看到一些連續成長，可能至少會翻倍，然後隨著銷售繼續增加和季節性增加，下半年會出現更多成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Raviv with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的喬恩‧拉維夫 (Jon Raviv)。

On the -- some that's going back to DOJ items.

一些內容可以追溯到司法部的項目。

Can you clarify the estimates that we'll see in the 10-Q?

您能否澄清我們將在 10-Q 中看到的估計值？

Those are not material?

那些都不是物質的？

And the second subpoena, you do not expect to be material either?

第二張傳票，你也不認為是實質的嗎？

And just any kind of color on any connective tissue or any narrative or rhythm or theme, I'd say, between these items.

我想說，在這些項目之間，任何結締組織上的任何顏色或任何敘事、節奏或主題。

For instance, are they all FMS or tied to a particular person or team or incentive structure?

例如，它們都是 FMS 還是與特定的個人、團隊或激勵結構有關？

And then any comments on what the functional impact of those settlements is going to be on the ongoing business for which -- on those contracts referenced, the '11 to '13 and also the '17 item.

然後，關於這些和解的功能性影響將對正在進行的業務產生什麼評論——在所引用的合約中，「11」至「13」以及「17」項目。

Jon, I appreciate the question.

喬恩，我很欣賞這個問題。

I'm not sure we can really answer it.

我不確定我們能否真正回答這個問題。

I will say, this is an ongoing investigation by DOJ.

我想說，這是司法部正在進行的調查。

We have begun our own investigation.

我們已經開始自己的調查。

And as we discover facts, we have been sharing all of those facts with the DOJ.

當我們發現事實時，我們一直在與司法部分享所有這些事實。

I would tell you, again, the dollar amounts are not going to be material in our view today.

我想再告訴你，在我們今天看來，美元金額並不重要。

These -- again, these are older contracts, where it was alleged that we defectively priced some contracts.

這些——再說一次，這些都是較舊的合同，據稱我們對某些合約的定價有缺陷。

Again, I can't get into much more detail than that.

再說一遍，我無法提供比這更詳細的資訊。

But again, we've looked into it.

但我們再次對此進行了調查。

We think there is potential liability for defective pricing.

我們認為定價缺陷有潛在的責任。

Clearly, we've provided for that this quarter.

顯然，我們本季已經為此做好了準備。

And we're going to continue to work with DOJ to bring these things to a resolution.

我們將繼續與司法部合作，解決這些問題。

I would tell you, these investigations take time.

我想告訴你，這些調查需要時間。

We're still going through doing some work.

我們仍在做一些工作。

But we don't believe there's going to be any ongoing impact to any of the businesses as a result of these investigations.

但我們認為這些調查不會對任何企業產生任何持續影響。

We think these were one-off events that occurred -- should not have occurred, but they did.

我們認為這些都是一次性發生的事件——不應該發生，但它們確實發生了。

And we're going to clean it up and move on.

我們將清理它並繼續前進。

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

So just maybe on Pratt.

所以也許只是普拉特。

I think in the hearing on Thursday on F-35, Pratt was mentioned 39 times.

我想在周四關於 F-35 的聽證會上，普拉特被提及了 39 次。

So I guess the question is this.

所以我想問題是這樣的。

How are you guys remedying the issues that the Air Force has with the F135 engine?

你們如何解決空軍 F135 引擎的問題？

And do you fear that kind of all this rhetoric around the engine could offer an entrée for GE to try to get a second engine in there?

您是否擔心圍繞引擎的所有這些言論可能會為通用電氣嘗試在那裡安裝第二台引擎提供一個入口？

Because they've been raising their rhetoric on that, at least they have been with the investment community.

因為他們一直在對此發表言論，至少他們一直與投資界保持一致。

Well, Ron, first of all, it's nice to be mentioned 39 times.

好吧，Ron，首先，很高興被提及 39 次。

No publicity -- or all publicity is good in some respects.

沒有宣傳——或者所有宣傳在某些方面都是好的。

But I would tell you, the issues -- and I think Matthew Bromberg, who's President of our Military Engines business, explained this pretty well.

但我想告訴你，這些問題——我認為我們的軍用發動機業務總裁馬修·布羅姆伯格（Matthew Bromberg）對此做了很好的解釋。

We've actually done a good job on the production or the OEM front in terms of delivery in engines.

實際上，我們在生產或 OEM 方面在引擎交付方面做得很好。

We ended the year on contract.

我們以合約結束了這一年。

In fact, there were about 50 engines sitting at the final assembly line for the F-35 today.

事實上，今天 F-35 的組裝線上大約有 50 台引擎。

Unfortunately, where we didn't do a great job was at the sustainment center.

不幸的是，我們在保障中心做得不好。

And we did not provision enough in terms of test equipment and personnel to deal with the volumes that we saw coming into the shop.

我們沒有提供足夠的測試設備和人員來處理我們看到進入商店的數量。

As a result, there are about 20 aircraft today that are sitting there that do not have a serviceable engine.

因此，目前大約有 20 架飛機停在那裡，沒有可用的引擎。

Now one of the solutions, I think Matthew pointed this out last week in his testimony, we can take some of those engines from the final assembly line and put them over at the sustainment center and solve this problem tomorrow.

現在的解決方案之一，我認為馬修上週在他的證詞中指出了這一點，我們可以從總裝線上取出一些引擎並將它們放在維持中心，明天解決這個問題。

But as you know, the color of money for procurement is different than it is from operations and maintenance, so it's not that easy.

但大家知道，購買的錢和維運的錢顏色不同，所以沒那麼容易。

But we have committed and working with the customer with the JPO to put the equipment in place necessary to service the engines such that we get back on, I'll say, contract performance levels by the end of this year.

但我們已經承諾並與日本特許廳的客戶合作，將維護引擎所需的設備安裝到位，以便我們在今年年底之前恢復到合約績效水準。

A lot of work to do.

有很多工作要做。

But again, we were caught by surprise in terms of the amount of hours that were being flown.

但我們再次對飛行時數感到驚訝。

We were surprised at the scope of the work that was required on some of these.

我們對其中一些項目所需的工作範圍感到驚訝。

But again, we will catch up.

但我們還是會迎頭趕上。

As far as does this give an entrée to GE to build the F136 engine, I can't answer that question completely.

至於這是否為 GE 製造 F136 引擎提供了機會，我無法完全回答這個問題。

I would tell you, though, that is a multibillion-dollar, multiyear effort to bring that engine back in line.

不過，我要告訴你的是，要讓該引擎恢復正常，需要花費數十億美元、多年的努力。

And I think, again, given the cost challenges on the program, it seems unlikely that any of the services are going to spend that kind of money for an extra engine when, in fact, our engine is actually performing quite well in service.

我再次認為，考慮到該計劃的成本挑戰，任何服務似乎都不太可能花那麼多錢購買額外的引擎，而事實上，我們的引擎實際上在服務中表現得很好。

We're meeting the reliability targets, meeting the fuel burn targets.

我們正在滿足可靠性目標，滿足燃油消耗目標。

It's -- look, the issue with the F-35 is not capability, it's sustainment cost.

看，F-35 的問題不是能力，而是維護成本。

And that is the other thing that we committed to work with the JPO on, is how do we reduce, working with Lockheed, the sustainment cost because that will ultimately be the bigger cost than the initial procurement.

這是我們承諾與 JPO 合作的另一件事，就是我們如何與洛克希德公司合作降低維持成本，因為這最終將比最初的採購成本更大。

Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Maybe I'll ask one on Collins.

也許我會問一個關於柯林斯的問題。

Decrementals are still in the 40% range there.

減幅仍在 40% 的範圍內。

What are the moving pieces of that?

其中有哪些動人的部分？

And how do we think about the trajectory of margin improvement in that business just given commercial OE start/stops on 787 and the MAX?

鑑於 787 和 MAX 的商業 OE 啟動/停止，我們如何看待該業務的利潤率改善軌跡？

Thanks, Sheila.

謝謝，希拉。

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

So you saw the decrementals today, 47% at Collins, slightly better than what we were seeing last year, so that's good.

所以你今天看到了柯林斯的下降 47%，比我們去年看到的略好，所以這很好。

The cost containment actions that we've implemented are taking hold and continuing.

我們實施的成本控制措施正在落實並持續下去。

As you think about the rest of the year, we continue to see the incrementals being very strong.

考慮到今年剩餘時間，我們仍然看到增量非常強勁。

probably in the 75% range if you'd average Q2 to Q4.

如果您將第二季到第四季進行平均，則可能在 75% 的範圍內。

But as you look at Q2, they should be in excess of 100% because you'll recall that last year, Q2 was our deepest quarter.

但當你看第二季度時，它們應該超過 100%，因為你會記得去年第二季是我們最深的季度。

I'm happy with what the team is doing there in terms of maintaining that cost control around E&D, SG&A in the factories.

我對團隊在維持工廠 E&D、SG&A 成本控制方面所做的工作感到滿意。

It took some difficult steps last year, as you know.

如你所知，去年採取了一些艱難的步驟。

And as we started the year, the Collins team has done a nice job of containing the growth in those costs.

今年年初，柯林斯團隊在控制這些成本的成長方面做得很好。

We will see a little bit of that come back in the second half of the year at Collins as we reinstate merits and furloughs are reduced and volume picks up.

隨著我們恢復績效、減少休假以及數量增加，我們將在柯林斯看到這一點在今年下半年有所恢復。

But it should be a really good story for the back 3 quarters of the year.

但這對於今年後三個季度來說應該是一個非常好的故事。

So that -- Neil, can you just comment on what's going on with the MAX and the 87, what kind of rates you expect for the year?

那麼 - Neil，您能否簡單評論一下 MAX 和 87 的情況，以及您預計今年的價格是多少？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So starting with the 787, we are aligned with the Boeing production schedule.

因此，從 787 開始，我們就與波音的生產計畫保持一致。

So you can think about that being around 5 ship sets per month.

所以你可以想像每個月大約有 5 艘船。

On 737, also aligned with Boeing.

在 737 上，也與波音保持一致。

I think they're out there with 161 deliveries expected for the year.

我認為他們今年預計交付 161 架。

As we've talked about, Sheila, we have produced and delivered a fair amount of that, 1/3 to 1/2 of that.

正如我們所說，Sheila，我們已經生產並交付了相當數量的產品，其中 1/3 到 1/2。

So the uptick in the 737 OE deliveries will start in the back half of the year.

因此，737 OE 交付量將從今年下半年開始增加。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

So maybe just a follow-up on Sheila's last question.

所以也許只是希拉最後一個問題的後續。

The guidance for Collins would seem to imply kind of this continuation of the mid-7s margin that we saw in the first quarter, but there's potential for an error recovery and continued efforts on efficiencies.

柯林斯的指導似乎意味著我們在第一季看到的 7 美元左右的利潤率會繼續下去，但有可能恢復錯誤並繼續努力提高效率。

And so why wouldn't we see that margin expand off of that level as we move through the year?

那麼，為什麼隨著這一年的推移，我們不會看到利潤率從該水準擴大呢？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Seth.

謝謝，塞思。

I'll take that.

我會接受的。

The -- you're right, as you think about the guide for the rest of the year for Collins, particularly given some of the strength we saw here in the first quarter, those margins are contained in that range.

你是對的，當你考慮柯林斯今年剩餘時間的指南時，特別是考慮到我們在第一季看到的一些實力，這些利潤率包含在這個範圍內。

However, I will say we're being really smart about the timing of when we spend our E&D and when we reinstate some of the discretionary spending.

不過，我要說的是，我們對於何時支出 E&D 以及何時恢復部分可自由支配支出的時機非常明智。

So those will be natural offsets to what we expect to see in terms of aftermarket growth.

因此，這些將自然抵消我們預期的售後市場成長。

But as that aftermarket growth comes, I would expect, if it's better than our plan, then you'll see it drop through.

但隨著售後市場成長的到來，我預計，如果它比我們的計劃更好，那麼你就會看到它落空。

Okay.

好的。

And then just on that, I think you mentioned the sequential aftermarket growth in the quarter, 11%.

就這一點，我想您提到了本季售後市場的連續成長，11%。

Can you talk about what pieces of the aftermarket are showing the most strength right now and where you expect that for Collins for the remainder of the year?

您能否談談目前售後市場的哪些部分錶現出最強的實力以及您對柯林斯今年剩餘時間的預期？

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

It's coming from the 2 places you'd expect it, parts and repair and mods and upgrades.

它來自您所期望的兩個地方：零件和維修以及改裝和升級。

Provisioning is lagging a little bit.

配置有點滯後。

But again, that tracks more closely to the commercial OE deliveries.

但同樣，這更接近商業原裝備件的交付。

So I'm not surprised to see that.

所以我對此並不感到驚訝。

But we are seeing, I'll call it, cautiously encouraging signs as we exited March and started April on the repair intake in particular.

但當我們結束三月並開始四月時，特別是在修復攝入量方面，我們看到了，我稱之為謹慎鼓勵的跡象。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak）。

Neil, could you just add a little more color to that last question there, just with this -- all of these questions about how the guidance implies some flattish things through the year despite some signposts for improvement with the aftermarket being the shorter-cycle lever?

尼爾，你能否為最後一個問題添加一些更多的色彩，只是這樣——所有這些問題都是關於指導如何暗示全年一些平淡的事情，儘管售後市場是更短週期槓桿的一些改進路標？

Just how did you tackle how to decide what to include for the aerospace aftermarket given the signposts are positive but it is still uncertain?

鑑於路標是正面的，但仍不確定，您是如何解決如何決定航空航太售後市場包含哪些內容的？

And then could you also tackle what happened with your pension cash flow input?

那麼您是否還可以解決您的退休金現金流輸入發生的情況？

It looks like those changed less than maybe we thought, based on how the inputs were revised there.

根據輸入的修改方式，看起來這些變化可能比我們想像的還要少。

Sure.

當然。

Let me try to build upon the aftermarket.

讓我嘗試以售後市場為基礎。

As I think about the year and we think about the recent IATA data on RPMs, January and February were a little bit of a slow start.

當我回顧這一年以及最近 IATA 的 RPM 數據時，一月和二月的起步有點慢。

That definitely picked up in March.

這在三月肯定有所回升。

When I think about the change in the RPM forecast that we and the industry are looking at today, I think we're pretty well aligned.

當我想到我們和行業今天關注的每千次展示收入預測的變化時，我認為我們非常一致。

It looks a little bit different today than it did 3 months ago.

今天看起來與三個月前有些不同。

Clearly, the domestic routes, U.S. and China, in particular, are much stronger, so that's helping us.

顯然，國內航線，尤其是美國和中國，要強大得多，所以這對我們有幫助。

But on the international side, it's a little slower than we thought.

但在國際方面，它比我們想像的要慢一些。

On the ASK or ASM side, the available seat miles, those are tracking pretty consistently with what we saw in January or thought we would see in January.

在 ASK 或 ASM 方面，可用座位里程與我們在一月份看到的或我們認為在一月份看到的情況非常一致。

I think the thinking that we've had as we look at the rest of the year, and there's still a long way to go, is that we really need to see those ASMs and corresponding RPMs increase here in the second quarter.

我認為，在展望今年剩餘時間時，我們的想法是，我們確實需要看到第二季的 ASM 和相應的 RPM 有所增加，而且還有很長的路要走。

And we're thinking about a 40% sequential growth in RPMs from Q1 '21 to Q2 and then again to Q2 to Q3.

我們正在考慮從 21 年第一季到第二季度，然後再從第二季度到第三季度，RPM 環比增長 40%。

And then corresponding on the ASM side, think about 25% to 30% sequential growth between Qs 1 and 2, and 2 and 3.

然後相應地在 ASM 方面，考慮第 1 季和第 2 季以及第 2 季和第 3 季之間的環比增長 25% 到 30%。

If we see that kind of growth, then we will likely see a stronger second half.

如果我們看到這種成長，那麼我們可能會看到下半年更加強勁。

But I think at this point, it's just too early to call that.

但我認為現在斷言還為時過早。

So that's how I'm thinking about that a little bit more.

所以這就是我更多地思考這個問題的方式。

Shifting to...

轉移到...

If I could just interject there really quickly, just to make sure I have it correctly?

我是否可以快速插話以確保我的理解正確？

Your guidance does not imply those types of sequential moves -- or really, really close.

你的指導並不意味著那些類型的連續動作——或非常非常接近。

So am I hearing you correctly that the signposts are saying that could be what happens?

那我沒聽錯吧，路標說可能會發生什麼事？

But just given how much uncertainty there still is with the virus and the vaccine rollout and restrictions to travel, you're feeling the need to keep the guidance fairly conservative in case things are more volatile than that?

但考慮到病毒、疫苗的推出以及旅行限制仍然存在很大的不確定性，您是否覺得有必要保持指導相當保守，以防情況變得更加不穩定？

Yes.

是的。

I think you said that exactly correctly, Noah.

我認為你說得完全正確，諾亞。

I mean the fact is there's still a lot that has to go right in the back half of the year in these next 8 months of the year.

我的意思是，事實上，今年下半年，在接下來的 8 個月裡，還有很多事情要做。

And so while we're optimistic, based upon the vaccine rollout here and what we've seen in China, there is still a tremendous -- I mean keep in mind, 40% of Collins' aftermarket is widebody.

因此，儘管我們很樂觀，但根據這裡的疫苗推出以及我們在中國所看到的情況，仍然存在巨大的——我的意思是請記住，柯林斯的售後市場 40% 是寬體飛機。

And that market is down significantly.

該市場大幅下跌。

It is not recovering nearly as fast as what we thought it was going to.

它的恢復速度並沒有我們想像的那麼快。

So domestic market is better, international markets worse.

所以國內市場比較好，國際市場比較差。

Overall, though, still confident in the full year guidance.

但整體而言，仍對全年指引充滿信心。

And to Neil's point, if the recovery happens faster, if the vaccine rollout -- and we start to see travel to Europe, for instance, in the summer season start to improve, these numbers could be better, and you'll see that in the bottom line.

就尼爾的觀點而言，如果恢復速度更快，如果疫苗推出——例如，我們開始看到前往歐洲的旅行在夏季開始改善，這些數字可能會更好，你會在底線。

And so again, we debated.

就這樣，我們再次爭論起來。

We could -- there could be upside on the top line and bottom line, but it's April.

我們可以——營收和利潤可能有上升空間，但現在是四月。

And so when we see you guys in May, we'll talk about it again.

所以當我們五月見到你們時，我們會再次討論這個問題。

You'll have a chance to talk to Steve Timm and to Chris Calio to see what they're seeing in the marketplace.

您將有機會與 Steve Timm 和 Chris Calio 交談，以了解他們在市場上看到的情況。

And then we'll have a better view, obviously, by the end of the second quarter.

顯然，到第二季末我們就會有更好的看法。

But right now, we're optimistic but still cautious.

但目前，我們樂觀但仍保持謹慎。

Yes.

是的。

And let me take the pension question, too.

我也來談談退休金問題。

So -- and thanks for bringing it up.

所以——感謝您提出這個問題。

So yes, we did put out some new numbers there.

所以，是的，我們確實在那裡發布了一些新數字。

As you know, the relief bill that was passed reduced pension funding.

如您所知，通過的救濟法案減少了退休金資金。

We currently don't see the need to do any domestic funding in the near term as a result of that bill.

目前，我們認為短期內不需要因該法案而進行任何國內融資。

You'll recall that we prefunded $800 million in 2020.

您可能還記得，我們​​在 2020 年預籌了 8 億美元。

That would have been our 2021 contribution.

這將是我們 2021 年的貢獻。

So there's nothing in '21 that changed as a result of the bill.

因此，21 年並沒有因該法案而發生任何改變。

However, looking forward, we do get a little bit of improvement.

然而，展望未來，我們確實取得了一些進展。

So we'll have to fund a little bit less into our pension plans.

因此，我們必須減少為退休金計劃提供的資金。

We'll get a little bit less on the CAS recovery.

我們對 CAS 恢復的了解會更少。

It's about $75 million next year and I think $50 million in 2023.

明年大約是 7500 萬美元，我認為 2023 年將達到 5000 萬美元。

So good news here.

這是個好消息。

The last thing I'll add is we got a little bit of a P&L benefit here in Q1 as we've rolled this lower CAS cost into our forward pricing.

我要補充的最後一件事是，我們在第一季獲得了一些損益效益，因為我們已將較低的 CAS 成本納入我們的遠期定價。

Probably about 70 basis points of margin improvement at the RMD segment is where it really showed up.

RMD 細分市場的利潤率提高約 70 個基點才是真正體現的地方。

Going forward for the rest of the year, I don't expect to see much more of that, and we've rolled that into our forward pricing.

展望今年剩餘時間，我預計不會看到更多這樣的情況，我們已將其納入我們的遠期定價中。

How far into the future did it take down the domestic funding?

未來多久它會減少國內資金？

It's pretty far out.

還很遙遠。

I'd say, for the next 3 to 5 years right now.

我想說的是，未來3到5年。

And of course, that depends on a lot of other assumptions that could change, but all things equal, for the next several years at least.

當然，這取決於許多其他可能改變的假設，但至少在接下來的幾年裡，所有條件都是相同的。

Your next question comes from Myles Walton with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

I just wondered if you can speak on how -- where we left off on RMD.

我只是想知道您是否可以談談我們在 RMD 上的進展。

It outperformed on margins.

它的利潤率表現優於大盤。

And Neil, thanks for the clarity on the pension contribution there.

尼爾，感謝您對退休金繳款的澄清。

But still, I think it was running hot and obviously no change to the full year.

但儘管如此，我認為它仍然很熱，而且全年顯然沒有變化。

And then maybe talk about the bookings trends there, which obviously look lighter, and when you think that could turn around given more confidence to at least stability in the segment from a revenue perspective run rate.

然後也許可以談談那裡的預訂趨勢，這顯然看起來更輕，當你認為這種情況可能會扭轉時，至少從收入角度來看，對該領域的穩定性更有信心。

Sure.

當然。

No problem.

沒問題。

So yes, as you saw, 13.1% RMD margins in the quarter.

所以，是的，正如您所看到的，本季的 RMD 利潤率為 13.1%。

We are very happy with that.

我們對此感到非常高興。

As I mentioned just a minute ago, I think about 70 basis of that is a little pension tailwind that won't repeat.

正如我剛才提到的，我認為其中大約 70 個基點是一點退休金順風，不會重複。

We also had about 40 basis points, I'd say, of international mix, some acceleration of award timing that came through with CFR liquidation.

我想說，我們還有大約 40 個基點的國際組合，以及 CFR 清算帶來的授予時間的一些加速。

That helped RMD here in the first quarter.

這在第一季幫助了 RMD。

And so if you kind of adjust for those 2 items, you'll see continued margin progression, again, as the productivity improves through the year.

因此，如果您對這兩項進行調整，您將再次看到隨著生產力的提高，利潤率持續成長。

So we're still seeing that margin growth that we would expect absent those couple of items.

因此，如果沒有這幾個項目，我們仍然會看到我們預期的利潤率成長。

And I'm sorry...

我很抱歉...

And the bookings trends?

預訂趨勢如何？

The bookings trends, yes.

預訂趨勢，是的。

So listen, a year ago and in the past 18 months, RMD has had some significant multiyear buys.

聽著，一年前和過去 18 個月裡，RMD 進行了一些重大的多年期收購。

So as we burn down the backlog there, our book-to-bill is a little bit lower.

因此，當我們銷毀那裡的積壓訂單時，我們的訂單出貨量會稍微降低一些。

But later this year, we do expect Next Generation Interceptor.

但今年晚些時候，我們確實期待下一代攔截器。

We talked about that.

我們討論過這個。

That will be over $1 billion booking that we'll book here in the second quarter, LRSO and some other international Patriot awards that are forthcoming later in the year.

我們將在第二季度在這裡預訂的金額將超過 10 億美元，LRSO 和其他一些國際愛國者獎項將於今年稍後頒發。

So all in all, I still expect, on a full year basis, a book-to-bill of about 1.0 for RMD and RIS for that matter.

總而言之，我仍然預計，就全年而言，RMD 和 RIS 的訂單出貨比約為 1.0。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird 的對話。

Greg, good sequential improvement from Pratt & Whitney on the kind of the large engine inductions.

格雷格，普惠公司對大型引擎感應裝置進行了良好的連續改進。

How are you thinking about at least planning or visibility-wise in the second half or at least as we move forward from the recovery?

您如何看待下半年的計劃或可見性，或至少在我們從復甦中向前邁進時？

And then also maybe you could just highlight how Pratt Canada is doing just given that we're seeing kind of a resurgence in biz jet flying activity?

然後，也許您可以強調加拿大普拉特公司的表現，因為我們看到公務機飛行活動有所復甦？

Yes, Peter.

是的，彼得。

So if you think about engine induction Vs, I think we had about 118 Vs into the shop in the first quarter, which is exactly on plan.

因此，如果您考慮引擎感應 V，我認為第一季我們有大約 118 個 V 進入車間，這完全符合計劃。

And we accept -- that will accelerate, we think, throughout the year as domestic travel recovers.

我們認為，隨著國內旅行的復甦，這一趨勢將在全年加速。

Right now, only about 60% of the V fleet is flying.

目前，V 機隊中只有約 60% 正在飛行。

Again, that -- it will come back, and compare that to the GTF-powered fleet, which is in the high 80s.

再說一次，它會回來，並將其與 GTF 驅動的機隊進行比較，後者處於 80 年代初。

So again, there's a little bit of a lag in demand.

再說一遍，需求存在一點滯後。

But we fully expect we're going to see a big sequential -- or a sequential improvement.

但我們完全預計我們將看到一個巨大的連續性改進。

We're not going to get back to 1,000 engines this year, probably not for 2 more years on the V. But we're clearly going to trend that way as people need more lift in these domestic markets.

今年我們不會恢復到 1,000 台發動機，V 型汽車可能再過 2 年也不會恢復。但我們顯然會朝著這種趨勢發展，因為這些國內市場的人們需要更多的升力。

So that's actually very encouraging.

所以這其實非常令人鼓舞。

As far as the rest of the aftermarket, still talking about Pratt Canada.

至於售後市場的其餘部分，仍在談論普拉特加拿大。

Again, good traction in their aftermarket.

再次，在售後市場上有良好的吸引力。

We're seeing biz jet flying hours are up, as you would imagine, significantly.

正如您所想像的那樣，我們看到公務機的飛行時間顯著增加。

That's translating into some higher aftermarket.

這轉化為更高的售後市場。

Keep in mind, most of the engines that we have out there, they were on a power-by-the-hour arrangement.

請記住，我們現有的大多數引擎都是按小時供電的。

So we don't actually recognize the revenue or the cost until we see those engines come back in.

因此，在看到這些引擎重新投入使用之前，我們實際上並沒有確認收入或成本。

So flight hours are up, aftermarket is up.

因此，飛行時間增加了，售後市場也增加了。

But it's not as much as you might think just because of the nature of the contracts.

但由於合約的性質，它並不像您想像的那麼多。

The one area at Pratt Canada that continues to be a challenge is in the regional marketplace, the PW100, PW150 for regional transport.

普拉特加拿大公司繼續面臨挑戰的一個領域是區域市場，即用於區域運輸的 PW100、PW150。

That market has been slower to recover.

該市場的復甦速度較慢。

It's, again, something we expect to see next year but certainly not a big uptick this year.

這也是我們預計明年會看到的情況，但今年肯定不會大幅上升。

Biz jet deliveries engines are very solid.

商務噴射機交付的引擎非常堅固。

Helicopter engine deliveries, solid.

直升機發動機交付穩定。

It's really just the regionals that are the challenge right now for Pratt Canada.

對普拉特加拿大公司來說，目前真正面臨的挑戰只是地區性的挑戰。

Peter, just -- it's Neil.

彼得，我是尼爾。

Just to go back and -- on the Pratt shop visits.

只是回去參觀普拉特商店。

We still expect Q2 to Q4 shop visit growth within the 25% to 30% range.

我們仍預期第二季至第四季的實體店客流量成長在 25% 至 30% 範圍內。

So all that's holding, as Greg mentioned, good start to the first quarter, and then we'll see that back half growth.

因此，正如格雷格所提到的那樣，第一季的良好開局，然後我們將看到後半段的成長。

The other point I would throw out there is we're watching Europe obviously, but the majority of that V fleet and our planning around those shop visits, I'd say, 80% or more, 85% or more is not in the Europe region.

我要拋出的另一點是，我們顯然正在關注歐洲，但 V 車隊的大部分以及我們圍繞這些商店訪問的計劃，我想說，80% 或更多、85% 或更多不在歐洲地區。

So we feel pretty good about that outlook.

所以我們對這種前景感覺很好。

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自大衛‧史特勞斯與巴克萊銀行的關係。

So I think you mentioned that the Collins aftermarket was up 11% sequentially.

我想您提到柯林斯售後市場環比增長了 11%。

I would imagine January, February weren't very good.

我想一月、二月的情況不太好。

Can you talk about what you saw in March in terms of how quickly the airlines can turn it back on, and then maybe also what you're seeing in April?

您能否談談您在 3 月看到的航空公司恢復營運的速度，以及您在 4 月看到的情況？

Yes.

是的。

Dave, I don't know that we want to get into month-by-month compares.

戴夫，我不知道我們想要逐月比較。

I would say that, directionally, that is absolutely correct.

我想說，從方向上來說，這是絕對正確的。

January and February were a little scary because, again, we saw an uptick in China in the virus, and the U.S. was going through the last wave.

一月和二月有點可怕，因為我們再次看到中國的病毒數量增加，而美國正在經歷最後一波。

And so the air traffic was not picking up as fast as what we had expected it to.

因此，空中交通的成長速度沒有我們預期的那麼快。

That all turned around in March.

這一切在三月發生了逆轉。

With the vaccine rollout, with China getting the pandemic under control, things got remarkably better.

隨著疫苗的推出，隨著中國控制住疫情，情況明顯改善。

And what surprised us a little bit was typically when we see a recovery in RPMs, it's usually 3 to 6 months before we see a recovery in demand for parts and repair.

令我們有點驚訝的是，當我們看到轉速回升時，通常需要 3 到 6 個月才能看到零件和維修需求的回升。

But in this case, because you've got so many parked aircraft out there, think about 11,000 out of 30,000 around the world are parked today, and yet demand is coming back very quickly in the U.S. and in China.

但在這種情況下，因為停放的飛機太多，想想今天全球 30,000 架飛機中有 11,000 架停放，但美國和中國的需求正在迅速恢復。

The airlines are actually being proactive in getting the aircraft ready for service in the summer selling season.

事實上，航空公司正在積極主動地讓飛機在夏季銷售季節做好投入使用的準備。

And that's really what drove March, what's driving April and I think which will benefit second quarter as the airlines are not waiting to see the RPMs.

這確實是推動 3 月、4 月成長的因素，我認為這將有利於第二季度，因為航空公司並沒有等待看到 RPM。

They see it in their advanced bookings, and they know they need the lift.

他們在提前預訂中看到了這一點，並且知道他們需要電梯。

This is a very different kind of recovery than what we have seen in the past.

這是一種與我們過去看到的非常不同的復甦。

Okay.

好的。

And I wanted to ask about the legacy Raytheon businesses and the margin expectation there.

我想詢問雷神公司的遺留業務以及那裡的利潤預期。

So those businesses were around 13% on average, blended together pre the accounting adjustments and all of that.

因此，在進行會計調整等之前，這些業務的平均佔比約為 13%。

Is there anything structurally in terms of anything different about how we should think about where those margins can get to as you're able to start booking EACs again?

當您能夠再次開始預訂 EAC 時，我們應該如何考慮這些利潤可以達到什麼程度，在結構上有什麼不同嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Let me give you a couple of thoughts.

讓我給你一些想法。

I mean, first of all, you got to keep in mind that as we implement all these synergies, which are great, they do come with a give-back to our customer, which is great because it also makes us more competitive.

我的意思是，首先，你必須記住，當我們實施所有這些很棒的協同效應時，它們確實會回饋我們的客戶，這很棒，因為它也使我們更具競爭力。

So that's a factor that you got to think about in the margins.

所以這是你必須在邊緣考慮的一個因素。

But both those businesses are laser-focused on driving productivity and cost reduction throughout their businesses.

但這兩家企業都專注於提高整個企業的生產力和降低成本。

We do see the opportunity for margin expansion.

我們確實看到了利潤率擴張的機會。

It's going to be a great question for Wes and Roy in our upcoming Investor Day in May, where they'll talk a little bit more about that.

在即將到來的五月投資者日，這對韋斯和羅伊來說將是一個很好的問題，屆時他們將對此進行更多討論。

We've talked about the EAC reset.

我們已經討論過 EAC 重置。

We do expect that to be -- that issue to be largely behind us as we exit the year.

我們確實預計，隨著今年的結束，這個問題基本上將被拋在腦後。

So you could see a little bit more margin expansion throughout this year.

因此，今年你可能會看到利潤率擴大。

But these are great businesses as we get into longer-term production contracts.

但當我們簽訂長期生產合約時，這些都是偉大的業務。

On the RMD side, in particular, you'll see margin expansion there.

特別是在 RMD 方面，您會看到利潤率的擴張。

But you do have a replenishing of some of the programs.

但你確實補充了一些程序。

And so we've had the Patriot missile program, a very good program for us.

所以我們有了愛國者飛彈計劃，這對我們來說是一個非常好的計劃。

That will get replaced with the LTAMDS in the future.

未來它將被 LAMDS 取代。

So it'll be a little bit of a mix shift as the margin sort of transitions between those early LRIP contracts, when you get into late ['23 and '24] and we get out of the more mature programs that we've been in today, but a lot of potential there.

因此，當你進入後期 ['23 和 '24] 時，隨著這些早期 LRIP 合約之間的保證金過渡，這將是一個混合轉變，我們將退出我們一直以來更成熟的計劃。今天，但那裡有很大的潛力。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題來自垂直研究的羅伯特·斯塔拉德（Robert Stallard）。

I just wanted to follow up on Peter's question about Pratt & Whitney and the other side of the engine portfolio there.

我只是想跟進彼得關於普惠公司和發動機產品組合另一方的問題。

I was wondering if you could tell us what you've been seeing on some of the older aircraft variant -- engine variants that are out there and how freighters has perhaps been helping those older aircraft out.

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您在一些較舊的飛機型號上看到了什麼 - 現有的發動機型號以及貨機如何幫助這些較舊的飛機擺脫困境。

Yes.

是的。

So if you think about the -- so the freighters, if you think about Pratt's installed base of 11,000-plus engines or so, about 10% of that is freighters.

因此，如果您考慮貨機，如果您考慮 Pratt 的 11,000 多台引擎的安裝基礎，其中大約 10% 是貨機。

Those are old PW4000, those are the 94-inch 767s and 747s.

這些是舊的 PW4000，那些是 94 英寸的 767 和 747。

That has actually been a pleasant surprise, I would tell you, because freighter traffic, as everybody knows, is up significantly year-over-year given the push of e-commerce and global supply chain.

我想告訴你，這實際上是一個驚喜，因為眾所周知，在電子商務和全球供應鏈的推動下，貨輪運輸量比去年同期大幅增長。

So as we think about the aftermarket for Pratt, it's not all bad news.

因此，當我們考慮普拉特的售後市場時，並非全是壞消息。

Freighter's traffic is good.

貨機運輸狀況良好。

At the same time, we started to see some retirements of some of the older engines out there.

同時，我們開始看到一些舊引擎退役。

Not a significant number this year but pretty much in line with what we had expected, especially I think on the 112-inch.

今年的數字並不大，但與我們的預期基本一致，尤其是 112 英寸。

That's the 777 that we saw JAL retiring their fleet.

這就是我們看到日航退役的 777 飛機。

Not a surprise that 12 months before we originally -- or we had thought they were going to retire it, but that will be putting those aircraft down.

毫不奇怪，在我們最初 12 個月之前——或者我們以為他們會讓它退役，但這將導致這些飛機停飛。

But those engines will still end up in service someplace else, probably in a freighter configuration.

但這些引擎最終仍將在其他地方服役，可能是貨機配置。

So again, it's -- the older stuff is still out there.

再說一次，舊的東西仍然在那裡。

It's still a meaningful piece of the aftermarket.

它仍然是售後市場中一個有意義的部分。

I think it's like 20% -- 25%.

我認為大約是 20% - 25%。

About 25%, yes, so it's still very significant.

大約25%，是的，所以它仍然非常重要。

And frankly, that cargo traffic that you all know is considerably higher than it was even pre-pandemic, has helped the shop visits at Pratt in '21.

坦白說，眾所周知，貨運量比大流行前要高得多，這對 21 年普拉特的商店客流量有所幫助。

And a quick follow-up, if I may.

如果可以的話，請快速跟進。

I mean it's the tough question, but how sustainable do you think this freight demand is likely to be?

我的意思是這是一個棘手的問題，但您認為這種貨運需求的可持續性如何？

Look, I -- as I look at how sustainable is e-commerce and this trend towards global supply chains, I think this is here to stay.

瞧，當我審視電子商務的可持續性以及全球供應鏈的趨勢時，我認為這種趨勢將會持續下去。

The fact is global supply chains are stretched thin today, and freighters are the most efficient way to get parts from point A to point B. So I think this is not just a temporary phenomenon.

事實上，如今全球供應鏈已經變得捉襟見肘，而貨機是將零件從 A 點運送到 B 點的最有效方式。所以我認為這不僅僅是暫時現象。

And your final question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

你的最後一個問題來自蔡馮魯莫爾（Cai von Rumohr）和考恩（Cowen）的對話。

Yes.

是的。

So at our conference in February, Toby talked of 15% to 30% growth in commercial aftermarket at Collins over Q2 to Q4.

因此，在我們 2 月的會議上，托比談到柯林斯的商業售後市場在第二季到第四季將成長 15% 到 30%。

That kind of seems like it fits with your full year guide.

這看起來很適合你的全年指南。

But it implies that commercial aftermarket moves up from the first quarter by something like $250 million if it's an orderly build.

但這意味著，如果建設有序的話，商業售後市場將比第一季增加約 2.5 億美元。

Could you give us some more color on kind of maybe the margin headwinds we look at?

您能給我們更多關於我們所看到的利潤逆風的資訊嗎？

Because you had this huge profit gain at Collins on basically lower volume sequentially from Q4 to Q1.

因為從第四季到第一季度，柯林斯的利潤大幅成長，但銷售量基本上較低。

And as Seth brought out, your guide for the rest of the year assumes basically not much margin improvement at all sequentially, and yet you should have very strong growth in your more lucrative part of your business.

正如塞斯所指出的，你今年剩餘時間的指南假設基本上不會有太大的利潤率連續改善，但你的業務中更有利可圖的部分應該有非常強勁的增長。

Thanks, Cai.

謝謝，蔡。

Just a couple of thoughts here.

這裡只是一些想法。

So as I think about the sequential growth in commercial's aftermarket -- Collins' commercial aftermarket for the rest of the year, it's a little bit lower than what we talked about in the first quarter.

因此，當我考慮商業售後市場——柯林斯今年剩餘時間的商業售後市場的連續增長時，它比我們在第一季討論的要低一些。

And that's because we've derisked that a bit by the performance we've seen.

那是因為我們已經透過我們所看到的表現來規避了這個風險。

So think about 5% in Q1 to Q2, maybe 10% Q2 to Q3 and another 5% or 8% in the -- 3 to 4 in terms of growth.

因此，就成長而言，考慮第一季到第二季的 5%，第二季到第三季的 10%，以及第三季到第四季的另外 5% 或 8%。

In terms of thinking about the strength that you saw in the first quarter, a lot of really good work on the cost containment.

考慮到您在第一季看到的實力，在成本控制方面做了很多非常好的工作。

E&D and SG&A combined about $60 million of improvement.

E&D 和 SG&A 合計改善費用約為 6,000 萬美元。

And that will come back because the team is phasing that investment during the year because we've tried to be very prudent about the discretionary elements of our spending until we see the recovery take a stronghold.

這將會回來，因為團隊正在年內分階段進行投資，因為我們一直努力對支出的可自由支配部分保持非常謹慎的態度，直到我們看到復甦站穩腳跟。

So that's what I can share with you there.

這就是我可以與您分享的內容。

Appreciate the question.

感謝這個問題。

I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Hayes for closing remarks.

現在我想將會議轉回由海耶斯先生致閉幕詞。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, everyone, for listening in today.

謝謝大家今天的收聽。

I know it's a busy earnings day out there, but I appreciate everybody's time.

我知道今天是繁忙的獲利日，但我感謝大家的時間。

Jennifer and Neil and the whole IR team will be available all day today to answer your questions.

Jennifer 和 Neil 以及整個 IR 團隊今天全天都可以回答您的問題。

And we look forward to seeing you or talking to you on the 18th of May.

我們期待 5 月 18 日見到您或與您交談。

Take care.

小心。

Bye-bye.

再見。

Bye.

再見。

This does conclude today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。