雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加雷神科技公司 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。

My name is Norma, and I'll be your operator for today.

我叫諾瑪，今天我將擔任您的接線生。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播。

On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chief Executive Officer; Toby O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer; Neil Mitchill, Corporate Vice President and Financial Planning, Analysis and Investor Relations.

今天參加電話會議的是執行長 Greg Hayes；托比‧奧布萊恩，財務長； Neil Mitchill，公司副總裁，負責財務規劃、分析和投資者關係。

This call is being carried live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.

這次電話會議正在網路上直播，並且可以從雷神科技公司的網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding net nonrecurring and non -- or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments, often referred to by management as other significant items.

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括淨非經常性和非重大項目以及收購會計調整，管理層通常將其稱為其他重要項目。

The company also reminds listeners that earnings and cash flow expectations and other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流量預期以及其他前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性。

RTC's SEC filings, include its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

RTC 向 SEC 提交的文件（包括 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格）詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

這樣，我會將電話轉給海耶斯先生。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Norma, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，諾瑪，大家早安。

Welcome to 2021.

歡迎來到 2021 年。

So for those of you following along in the webcast, we're going to start on Slide 2. Just taking a look back on 2020.

對於那些關注網路廣播的人，我們將從幻燈片 2 開始。回顧一下 2020 年。

As painful as it was, it's obviously one of the most challenging years for our company, for the commercial aerospace industry at large and for everyone around the globe.

儘管很痛苦，但對於我們公司、整個商業航空航天業以及全球每個人來說，這顯然是最具挑戰性的一年。

But importantly, it was also a transformational year for us as we created an industry-leading aerospace and defense company.

但重要的是，這對我們來說也是轉型的一年，因為我們創建了一家領先業界的航空航太和國防公司。

I'm really proud of the way our team managed through the pandemic and continued to support our customers, our suppliers and our communities without missing a beat.

我對我們的團隊應對疫情的方式感到非常自豪，並繼續為我們的客戶、我們的供應商和我們的社區提供毫不猶豫的支持。

In many areas, we were able to accelerate our progress, and we found new ways to increase our productivity that will be a part of how we operate going forward.

在許多領域，我們能夠加快進展，並且找到了提高生產力的新方法，這將成為我們未來營運方式的一部分。

So let me go over some of the highlights from 2020.

讓我回顧一下 2020 年的一些亮點。

And we'll start with the portfolio transformation and integration.

我們將從產品組合轉型和整合開始。

We obviously achieved two significant milestones this year by completing the separation of Otis and Carrier as stand-alone public companies, as well as the merger that same-day on April 3 with Raytheon Company to form Raytheon Technologies.

今年，我們顯然實現了兩個重要的里程碑：完成奧的斯和開利作為獨立上市公司的分離，以及 4 月 3 日同一天與雷神公司合併成立雷神技術公司。

This is a culmination of a multiyear effort to transform the company into an innovative and focused and leading aerospace and defense company that will define the future of the industry.

這是該公司多年努力的成果，旨在將公司轉變為創新、專注、領先的航空航太和國防公司，這將定義該產業的未來。

In connection with this transformation, we also completed the divestiture of several businesses, including the sale of Forcepoint that closed earlier this month.

與這項轉型相關，我們也完成了多項業務的剝離，包括本月稍早完成的 Forcepoint 的出售。

All of that resulted in net proceeds of over $3 billion, further strengthening our financial position.

所有這些帶來的淨收益超過 30 億美元，進一步增強了我們的財務狀況。

We continue to strengthen our portfolio with strategic bolt-on acquisitions, and we'll continue to evaluate other noncore divestitures this year.

我們繼續透過策略性補強收購來加強我們的投資組合，今年我們將繼續評估其他非核心資產剝離。

In December, we completed the acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies, which will now enable us to deliver a broader range of solutions to support our customers' space missions.

12 月，我們完成了對 Blue Canyon Technologies 的收購，這將使我們能夠提供更廣泛的解決方案來支援客戶的太空任務。

And we'll, of course, remain disciplined on M&A.

當然，我們將在併購方面保持紀律。

Looking at our performance.

看看我們的表現。

We continue to execute on the integration of both the merger as well as the Rockwell Collins acquisition.

我們繼續執行合併以及羅克韋爾柯林斯收購的整合。

So we achieved about $240 million of gross synergies from the merger as well, and that's well above our initial target of $200 million.

因此，我們也從合併中獲得了約 2.4 億美元的總協同效應，這遠高於我們最初 2 億美元的目標。

And at Collins, we achieved about $170 million of incremental cost synergies, again, above our target for the year of $150 million.

在柯林斯，我們實現了約 1.7 億美元的增量成本協同效應，再次高於我們今年 1.5 億美元的目標。

So since the acquisition of Collins in November of 2018, we have seen about $470 million of synergies, well on our way to the $600 million that we had committed to.

因此，自 2018 年 11 月收購柯林斯以來，我們已經看到了約 4.7 億美元的協同效應，正在朝著我們承諾的 6 億美元的目標邁進。

On cash, we exceeded our cash conservation commitments and fully executed on our cost-reduction plans with early and decisive actions that we announced in May of last year.

在現金方面，我們超越了現金節約承諾，並透過去年 5 月宣布的及早果斷行動全面執行了成本削減計劃。

For the full year, we added about $4.7 billion of cash conservation as well as more than $2 billion in cost reduction.

全年我們節省了約 47 億美元的現金，並減少了超過 20 億美元的成本。

And of course, we'll continue to take other structural cost-reduction actions, which we'll cover in more detail a little bit.

當然，我們將繼續採取其他結構性成本削減行動，我們將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

So despite the continued economic environment in the quarter, we finished the year with better-than-expected sales, earnings and free cash flow.

因此，儘管本季的經濟環境持續不佳，但我們今年的銷售、獲利和自由現金流都比預期好。

Free cash flow was significantly better at $747 million in the quarter, and that was driven by exceeding our cash conservation actions as well as strong collections across the portfolio.

本季自由現金流明顯優於 7.47 億美元，這是由於我們超額現金節約行動以及整個投資組合的強勁收款所推動的。

And that $747 million is after making $800 million of discretionary pension contributions in December.

這 7.47 億美元是在 12 月繳納了 8 億美元的酌情退休金繳款之後的。

So for the full year, pro forma free cash flow was $2.3 billion, which we see growing to at least $4.5 billion in 2021.

因此，全年預計自由現金流為 23 億美元，我們預計到 2021 年將成長到至少 45 億美元。

And Toby will take you through the full year outlook later in the call.

托比將在稍後的電話會議中向您介紹全年展望。

The aggressive short- and long-term cost-reduction actions that we've taken have enabled us to emerge from 2020 as a stronger company with a better cost structure and stronger free cash flow generating capabilities.

我們採取的積極的短期和長期成本削減行動使我們能夠在 2020 年成為一家更強大的公司，擁有更好的成本結構和更強的自由現金流產生能力。

To be clear, when the commercial aerospace markets rebound, I'm confident in our ability to get back to the levels of cash flow contemplated before the pandemic.

需要明確的是，當商業航空航太市場反彈時，我對我們有能力恢復到疫情大流行之前預期的現金流水準充滿信心。

Also, with the strength of our cash flows and our confidence in the recovery, we remain committed to returning $18 billion to $20 billion of capital to our shareowners in the 4 years following the merger.

此外，憑藉我們強勁的現金流和對復甦的信心，我們仍然致力於在合併後的 4 年內向股東返還 180 億至 200 億美元的資本。

As you saw back in December, our Board authorized a new $5 billion share buyback program.

正如您在 12 月看到的，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購計畫。

And in 2021, we plan to opportunistically buy back at least $1.5 billion of shares.

2021 年，我們計劃趁機回購至少 15 億美元的股票。

And we remain fully committed to our dividend and growing our dividend as earnings recover.

我們仍然完全致力於我們的股息，並隨著盈利的恢復而增加股息。

Over the past year, our defense businesses remained resilient.

過去一年，我們的國防業務保持韌性。

Our defense backlog ended the year at over $67 billion, and our key defense franchises are well funded and aligned with the national defense strategy, positioning us for further growth this year and the following.

截至今年年底，我們的國防積壓訂單超過 670 億美元，我們的主要國防專營權資金充足且與國防戰略保持一致，為我們今年及以後的進一步增長奠定了基礎。

Turning to our segments.

轉向我們的細分市場。

Let me share just a few highlights for the year.

讓我分享一下今年的一些亮點。

Let me start with Collins.

讓我從柯林斯開始。

So Collins partnered with airline customers to develop some innovative solutions, including touchless airport kiosks, aircraft fixtures, and antiviral surface coatings and enhanced air filtration systems to make air travel even safer and healthier.

因此，柯林斯與航空公司客戶合作開發了一些創新解決方案，包括非接觸式機場自助服務終端、飛機固定裝置、抗病毒表面塗層和增強空氣過濾系統，使航空旅行更加安全、健康。

At Pratt, the geared turbofan fleet reached over 7.5 million revenue hours.

在普拉特，齒輪傳動渦輪風扇機隊的營業小時數超過 750 萬小時。

And fleet utilization continued to improve as we exited the year, demonstrating the value proposition of this unique engine technology for our customers.

隨著這一年的結束，機隊利用率繼續提高，向我們的客戶展示了這種獨特引擎技術的價值主張。

Importantly, dispatch reliability improved to 99.97% for the fleet.

重要的是，機隊的調度可靠性提高到了 99.97%。

At Raytheon Intelligence & Space, the team had $4.3 billion of classified bookings in high-technology areas that will drive growth well into the future.

在 Raytheon Intelligence & Space，該團隊在高科技領域擁有 43 億美元的機密預訂，這將推動未來的成長。

And finally, at Raytheon Missiles & Defense, the team delivered a historic flight test, where, for the first time ever, an SM-3 Block IIA missile launched at sea successfully intercepted and destroyed an intercontinental ballistic missile target outside of the Earth's atmosphere.

最後，在雷神飛彈與防禦公司，該團隊進行了歷史性的飛行測試，有史以來第一次，海上發射的 SM-3 Block IIA 飛彈成功攔截並摧毀了地球大氣層外的洲際彈道飛彈目標。

Truly extraordinary technology.

真正非凡的技術。

So with that, let me turn it over to Toby to have him walk you through our financial performance for the quarter.

因此，讓我將其交給托比，讓他向您介紹我們本季的財務表現。

Toby?

托比？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Moving on to Slide 3. Let me first give you an update on some of the key actions we have taken to rightsize the cost structure of our organization.

前往投影片 3。首先讓我向您介紹我們為調整組織成本結構所採取的一些關鍵行動的最新情況。

First, as Greg highlighted, we overdrove the cost reduction and cash conservation commitments we set early last year, and we'll see continued benefits from those actions in 2021 and beyond.

首先，正如 Greg 所強調的那樣，我們超額完成了去年初制定的成本削減和現金節約承諾，我們將在 2021 年及以後看到這些行動的持續效益。

Next, on the synergy front, excellent momentum there as we exceeded both our RTX and Collins targets in 2020, with a significant increase anticipated in 2021.

接下來，在協同方面，我們在 2020 年超越了 RTX 和 Collins 的目標，勢頭強勁，預計 2021 年將大幅成長。

We also announced a number of other cost reductions that are more structural in nature.

我們也宣布了其他一些更具結構性的成本削減措施。

To start, we previously took the difficult action to reduce commercial headcount at Collins and Pratt by 15,000 and to eliminate 4,000 contractor roles.

首先，我們先前採取了艱難的行動，將 Collins 和 Pratt 的商業員工人數減少了 15,000 人，並裁減了 4,000 名承包商職位。

We have recently reduced commercial headcount at Collins by another 1,500, bringing the total to 16,500; and contractors by another 500, bringing the total to approximately 4,500 contractors as we continue to position the business for strength as the industry recovers, reducing our total commercial aero headcount now by approximately 20%.

最近，我們將柯林斯的商業員工人數又減少了 1,500 人，使總數達到 16,500 人；以及另外 500 名承包商，使承包商總數達到約 4,500 名，隨著行業的復甦，我們將繼續增強業務實力，目前我們的商業航空員工總數減少了約 20%。

And as you've heard, we announced Pratt's investment in the new airfoil facility, and that we are shifting some production of circuit cards to our circuit card Center of Excellence.

正如您所聽說的，我們宣布了普瑞特投資新機翼工廠，並且我們正在將部分電路卡生產轉移到我們的電路卡卓越中心。

And we're not just looking at the commercial side of our business for cost reduction.

我們不僅著眼於業務的商業方面來降低成本。

At RIS, we're undertaking an initiative to consolidate manufacturing that will yield footprint consolidation of 280,000 square feet and savings of $160 million over a 10-year period.

在 RIS，我們正在實施一項整合製造計劃，該計劃將在 10 年內整合 280,000 平方英尺的佔地面積並節省 1.6 億美元。

Initial planning is underway, and the project will be complete by mid-2025.

初步規劃正在進行中，該項目將於 2025 年中期完成。

Additionally, we are taking aggressive steps to reduce our office footprint by up to 25% over the next several years, with a 1.6 million square foot reduction expected by the end of this year.

此外，我們正在採取積極措施，在未來幾年內將辦公室佔地面積減少多達 25%，預計到今年年底將減少 160 萬平方英尺。

And as always, we are continuously looking for other opportunities to permanently reduce cost to position us for even better long-term profitability.

一如既往，我們不斷尋找其他機會來永久降低成本，以使我們獲得更好的長期獲利能力。

Moving on to Slide 4. Let me take you through our fourth quarter results, where our performance was better than expected.

轉到投影片 4。讓我向您介紹我們第四季的業績，我們的業績好於預期。

Adjusted sales were $16.6 billion, with all 4 segments contributing to about $1.6 billion of sequential growth.

調整後銷售額為 166 億美元，所有 4 個細分市場貢獻了約 16 億美元的環比成長。

Adjusted EPS was $0.74, better than expected, primarily driven by a lower effective tax rate as well as higher-than-expected commercial volume at Pratt and Collins that was partially offset by an EAC adjustment at RIS and some latter timing of awards at RMD.

調整後每股收益為 0.74 美元，優於預期，主要是由於有效稅率較低以及普拉特和柯林斯的商業銷售高於預期，部分被 RIS 的 EAC 調整和 RMD 的一些較晚授予時間所抵消。

On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.10 per share and included $0.64 of net nonrecurring and/or significant items and acquisition accounting adjustments.

以 GAAP 計算，持續經營業務每股收益為 0.10 美元，其中包括 0.64 美元的淨非經常性和/或重大項目以及收購會計調整。

Free cash flow of $747 million was better than expected and included $800 million of discretionary pension contributions, as well as approximately $360 million of merger cost, restructuring, and tax payments on divestitures.

自由現金流為 7.47 億美元，優於預期，其中包括 8 億美元的可自由支配退休金繳款，以及約 3.6 億美元的合併成本、重組和資產剝離稅款。

The better-than-expected cash flow was driven primarily by exceeding our cash conservation actions, including inventory reductions at Collins as well as stronger collections across all of our businesses.

比預期的現金流好主要是因為我們超越了現金節約行動的推動，包括柯林斯的庫存減少以及我們所有業務的收款力度加大。

With that, I'll hand it over to Neil to take you through the segment results, and I'll come back and share some perspectives on the year ahead.

接下來，我將把它交給尼爾，讓他帶您了解部門結果，然後我將回來分享對未來一年的一些看法。

Neil?

尼爾？

Thanks, Toby.

謝謝，托比。

Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 5. Adjusted sales were $4.4 billion in the quarter, down 32% on an adjusted basis; and down 31% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the industry.

從幻燈片 5 上的柯林斯航空航太公司開始。該季度調整後銷售額為 44 億美元，調整後下降 32%；有機下降 31%，主要是由於 COVID-19 對行業的不利影響。

Sequentially, sales were up 3%, driven by slight growth in commercial OE and aftermarket.

隨後，在商業原廠設備和售後市場小幅成長的推動下，銷售額成長了 3%。

By channel, commercial OE sales were down 41%, driven principally by the impact of the current environment, lower 737 MAX, and anticipated declines in legacy programs.

按通路劃分，商業 OE 銷量下降了 41%，這主要是受到當前環境、737 MAX 銷量下降以及傳統項目預期下降的影響。

Commercial aftermarket sales were down 48%, driven by a 47% decline in parts and repair, a 58% decline in provisioning and a 46% decline in modifications and upgrades.

商業售後市場銷售額下降 48%，原因是零件和維修下降 47%、配置下降 58% 以及改裝和升級下降 46%。

Partially offsetting the headwinds in the commercial channels, defense sales were up 1% on an adjusted basis and up 7% organically, driven by F-35 as well as growth in our avionics and actuation product lines.

在 F-35 以及我們的航空電子設備和驅動產品線成長的推動下，國防銷售在調整後成長了 1%，有機成長了 7%，部分抵消了商業通路的不利因素。

Adjusted operating profit of $89 million was down $1 billion from prior year and slightly better than our expectations for the quarter.

調整後營業利潤為 8,900 萬美元，比去年同期減少 10 億美元，略優於我們對本季的預期。

Cost management actions, including lower E&D and SG&A as well as continued synergy capture were more than offset by lower commercial OE and aftermarket sales and fixed cost headwinds.

成本管理措施，包括較低的 E&D 和 SG&A 以及持續的協同效應，被較低的商業原件和售後市場銷售以及固定成本不利因素所抵消。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 6. Adjusted sales of $4.5 billion were better than expected.

投影片 6 轉向普惠公司。調整後銷售額為 45 億美元，優於預期。

Year-over-year, sales were down 20% on an adjusted basis and down 21% on an organic basis, also driven by the adverse impact of the current environment on the industry.

與去年同期相比，調整後銷售額下降了 20%，有機銷售額下降了 21%，這也是受到當前環境對產業的不利影響的推動。

Sequentially, sales were 19% higher in Q4 than Q3, driven by growth in commercial aftermarket and military.

隨後，在商業售後市場和軍用市場成長的推動下，第四季的銷售額比第三季高出 19%。

Commercial OEM sales were down 46% compared to elevated volumes in Q4 2019.

與 2019 年第四季的銷售成長相比，商業 OEM 銷量下降了 46%。

This was driven by lower deliveries across both Pratt's large commercial engine and Pratt Canada platforms.

這是由於普拉特大型商用引擎和普拉特加拿大平台的交付量下降所致。

Commercial aftermarket sales were down 32% in the quarter, driven by an expected decline in shop visits.

由於商店客流量預期下降，本季商業售後市場銷售額下降 32%。

Growth in the GTF aftermarket volume was more than offset by the impact of a reduction in legacy large commercial engine shop visit inductions of 52% and a 25% reduction in Pratt Canada shop visits.

GTF 售後市場銷量的成長被傳統大型商用引擎商店訪問量減少 52% 和普拉特加拿大商店訪問量減少 25% 的影響所抵消。

Joint Strike Fighter production continues to drive sales growth at Pratt's military business.

聯合攻擊戰鬥機的生產繼續推動普拉特軍事業務的銷售成長。

Military sales were up 18% on higher F135 production and aftermarket sales across key platforms.

由於 F135 產量和主要平台售後市場銷量的增加，軍品銷量成長了 18%。

Pratt's adjusted operating profit of $105 million was down $365 million from the prior year.

Pratt 調整後營業利潤為 1.05 億美元，比前一年減少 3.65 億美元。

Significant aftermarket volume reductions and fixed cost headwinds more than offset cost containment measures, including sizable G&A and E&D reductions, drop-through on higher defense sales and the absence of prior year contract adjustments.

售後市場銷售的大幅減少和固定成本的不利因素足以抵消成本控制措施，包括大幅削減一般管理費用和研發費用、國防銷售的增加以及上一年合約調整的缺失。

Turning now to Slide 7. RIS reported sales were $3.9 billion or up 3% versus the prior year on a pro forma basis, slightly below our expectations due to later-than-anticipated timing on certain awards that are now expected in 2021.

現在轉向幻燈片 7.RIS 報告預計銷售額為 39 億美元，比上年增長 3%，略低於我們的預期，因為目前預計 2021 年某些獎項的頒發時間晚於預期。

Sales in the quarter were also impacted by expected declines in the Warfighter FOCUS program, which represented about 2 points of headwind in the quarter.

該季度的銷售額也受到 Warfighter FOCUS 計畫預期下降的影響，該計畫代表該季度約 2 個百分點的阻力。

Reported operating profit in the quarter was $355 million, down $70 million year-over-year on a pro forma basis, primarily due to an unfavorable EAC adjustment of approximately $90 million on a domestic-classified fixed price development program.

本季報告的營運利潤為 3.55 億美元，預計將年減 7,000 萬美元，主要是由於國內分類固定價格開發計劃的 EAC 調整約為 9,000 萬美元。

Keep in mind, the percentage of completion reset at the merger date continues to impact the compares for both sales and operating profit at the legacy Raytheon businesses.

請記住，合併日重置的完成百分比繼續影響雷神公司傳統業務的銷售和營業利潤的比較。

RIS had bookings in the quarter of $3.9 billion, resulting in a backlog of $18.7 billion at year-end.

RIS 本季的訂單量為 39 億美元，導致年底積壓金額為 187 億美元。

Significant bookings included approximately $950 million on classified programs and approximately $235 million for the production of Silent Knight radar systems and spares for the U.S. Special Operations Command.

大額訂單包括約 9.5 億美元用於機密項目，以及約 2.35 億美元用於為美國特種作戰司令部生產「沉默騎士」雷達系統和備件。

Full year book-to-bill on a pro forma basis was 1.07.

預計全年訂單出貨比為 1.07。

Turning now to Slide 8. RMD adjusted sales were $4.4 billion, up about 2% versus prior year on a pro forma basis, but below our expectations, principally due to delays in the timing of awards which are now also expected in 2021.

現在轉向幻燈片 8。RMD 調整後銷售額為 44 億美元，按預計計算比上年增長約 2%，但低於我們的預期，主要是由於現在預計也將在 2021 年頒獎的時間推遲。

Additionally, RMD's reported sales and operating profit were adversely impacted by an adjustment related to direct commercial sales contracts for munitions with a Middle East customer, which are subject to regulatory approval.

此外，RMD 報告的銷售額和營業利潤受到與中東客戶的軍火直接商業銷售合約相關的調整的不利影響，該合約需經監管部門批准。

Furthermore, RMD's reported operating profit included an unfavorable impact of approximately $516 million related to these contracts for an impairment of certain inventory and associated supplier-related obligations.

此外，RMD 報告的營業利潤包括與這些合約相關的約 5.16 億美元的不利影響，即某些庫存和相關供應商相關義務的減損。

Adjusted operating profit, which excludes these contract impacts, was $586 million.

排除這些合約影響後，調整後營業利潤為 5.86 億美元。

And again, as I mentioned earlier, both sales and operating profit in the quarter included the continued impact of the EAC reset as a result of the merger.

正如我之前提到的，本季的銷售額和營業利潤都包括了合併導致的 EAC 重置的持續影響。

RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $3.2 billion, resulting in a year-end backlog of nearly $30 billion.

RMD 本季的預訂量約為 32 億美元，導致年底積壓近 300 億美元。

Significant bookings in the quarter included approximately $355 million for a classified program and several other notable awards over $200 million each.

本季的重大預訂包括約 3.55 億美元的分類節目和其他幾個各超過 2 億美元的著名獎項。

Full year book-to-bill on a pro forma basis was 1.06.

預計全年訂單出貨比為 1.06。

And now, I'll turn it back to Toby to provide some more color on the rest of the year.

現在，我將把它轉回給托比，為今年剩下的時間提供更多的色彩。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

I'm now on Slide 9. Let me give you some perspective on how we see the current environment as we look ahead at 2021.

我現在正在看幻燈片 9。讓我為我們在展望 2021 年時如何看待當前環境提供一些看法。

As you know, we performed exceptionally well on our cost reduction and cash conservation actions in 2020.

如您所知，2020 年我們在降低成本和節約現金方面表現非常出色。

And as I've previously discussed, we'll see some continued benefit from these actions, along with the incremental headcount actions at Collins, which will be partially offset by headwinds from the reinstatement of merit increases and reduced furloughs.

正如我之前所討論的，我們將看到這些行動以及柯林斯的員工人數增加行動帶來的一些持續好處，這將被恢復績效增加和減少休假帶來的不利因素部分抵消。

So on a net year-over-year basis, we expect this to be a $300 million benefit in 2021.

因此，以同比淨收益計算，我們預計 2021 年將帶來 3 億美元的收益。

On the merger and acquisition synergy front, we expect to deliver an incremental $610 million of gross RTX synergies and $85 million of incremental Collins synergies this year.

在併購綜效方面，我們預計今年將帶來 6.1 億美元的 RTX 綜效增量和 8,500 萬美元的柯林斯綜效增量。

And our liquidity position remains very strong.

我們的流動性狀況仍然非常強勁。

We ended 2020 with about $9 billion of cash on the balance sheet that has been further bolstered by the sale of our Forcepoint business that closed earlier this month.

2020 年底，我們的資產負債表上有約 90 億美元的現金，本月稍早出售的 Forcepoint 業務進一步增強了這個現金水準。

Moving now to the macro factors.

現在轉向宏觀因素。

While we in the industry will have a tough compare in the first quarter, the availability of multiple vaccines is encouraging.

雖然我們這個行業在第一季將面臨艱難的比較，但多種疫苗的供應令人鼓舞。

We expect the pace of the commercial aero recovery will depend upon the speed and breadth of vaccination rollouts across the world.

我們預期商業航空復甦的速度將取決於全球疫苗接種的速度和廣度。

As a result, we expect sequential RPM growth to accelerate as we progress through the year.

因此，我們預計隨著今年的進展，每千次展示收入的環比成長將會加速。

Consistent with recent travel trends, we expect narrow-body and regional traffic to rebound before widebody, particularly due to the continued international border restrictions.

與最近的旅行趨勢一致，我們預計窄體客機和區域客流量將先於寬體客機反彈，特別是由於持續的國際邊境限制。

For the third consecutive quarter, we saw continued improvements in utilization across the GTF-powered A320neo fleets, as well as solid utilization of the A220 platform and the fleets powered by Pratt's V2500 engines.

連續第三個季度，我們看到由 GTF 驅動的 A320neo 機隊的利用率持續提高，以及 A220 平台和由普拉特 V2500 發動機驅動的機隊的穩定利用率。

Looking longer term, we continue to expect that it will take until at least 2023 for commercial traffic to return to 2019 levels.

從長遠來看，我們仍然預期商業流量至少要到 2023 年才能恢復到 2019 年的水準。

We continue to expect defense program growth to remain robust, both domestically and internationally.

我們繼續預期國內和國際國防項目的成長將保持強勁。

We remain confident in our ability to grow those businesses even in a flat budgetary environment due to our strength with international customers, our innovative technologies and our positions in high-growth areas.

由於我們在國際客戶方面的實力、我們的創新技術以及我們在高成長領域的地位，即使在預算不變的環境下，我們仍然對發展這些業務的能力充滿信心。

With that backdrop, let me tell you how we see the year ahead.

在此背景下，讓我告訴您我們如何看待未來的一年。

Moving to Slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

At an RTX level, we expect full year 2021 sales to be between $63.4 billion and $65.4 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $3.40 to $3.70.

在 RTX 水準上，我們預計 2021 年全年銷售額將在 634 億美元至 654 億美元之間，調整後每股收益為 3.40 美元至 3.70 美元。

And as Greg said, we expect free cash flow of approximately $4.5 billion.

正如格雷格所說，我們預計自由現金流約為 45 億美元。

Keep in mind with the Forcepoint sale that closed earlier this month, we have divested 4 businesses in the last year, which combined create about $1 billion of sales headwind year-over-year.

請記住，隨著本月稍早完成的 Forcepoint 出售，我們在去年剝離了 4 項業務，這些業務合計創造了約 10 億美元的同比銷售額逆風。

I should point out that our ranges for 2021 are a bit wider than we would typically provide driven entirely by the macro factors impacting our commercial aero businesses.

我應該指出，我們 2021 年的範圍比我們通常提供的範圍要寬一些，完全是由影響我們商業航空業務的宏觀因素驅動的。

With our ranges, we are attempting to capture the potential variability we may encounter, given the current environment and the speed of the vaccine rollout, revenue passenger miles and the behaviors of our customers.

考慮到當前的環境和疫苗推出的速度、收入乘客里程和客戶的行為，透過我們的範圍，我們試圖捕捉我們可能遇到的潛在變化。

As the year progresses and as we have more clarity, we would expect to narrow our outlook ranges.

隨著時間的推移以及我們的情況更加明朗，我們預計會縮小我們的展望範圍。

As I mentioned, the first quarter will be a tough compare as the effects of the pandemic did not materialize until Q2.

正如我所提到的，第一季將是一個艱難的比較，因為大流行的影響直到第二季才顯現出來。

Therefore, in the first quarter, we expect to see declines in our commercial businesses, similar to what we saw in the second half of 2020.

因此，我們預計第一季商業業務將下滑，與 2020 年下半年的情況類似。

With that context, we have bifurcated our outlook between what we are expecting in Q1 versus the Q2 to Q4 periods.

在這種背景下，我們對第一季和第二季至第四季的預期進行了劃分。

So for Q1, we see sales in the range of $14.8 billion to $15.4 billion, EPS in the range of $0.70 to $0.75 per share, and we expect to see a cash outflow due to seasonal factors and timing of collections.

因此，對於第一季度，我們預計銷售額將在148 億美元至154 億美元之間，每股收益在0.70 美元至0.75 美元之間，由於季節性因素和收款時間，我們預計將出現現金流出。

We expect the vaccine rollout, easing of international travel restrictions and increasing RPMs will enable sales growth to accelerate from Q2 onward, with total company sales growing between 5% and 8% on an adjusted basis and between 7% and 10% organically on a year-over-year basis for the Q2 to Q4 period.

我們預計，疫苗的推出、國際旅行限制的放寬以及轉速的提高將使銷售增長從第二季度開始加速，公司總銷售額經調整後增長在5% 至8% 之間，年度有機增長在7%至10% 之間-第二季至第四季的年比基礎。

As a result, we see EPS growing approximately $1.10 year-over-year at the midpoint of our outlook range in the Q2 to Q4 period.

因此，我們預計第二季至第四季的每股盈餘將年增約 1.10 美元，處於我們展望範圍的中點。

Because of the unique environment we're facing, let me take you through some of the key assumptions in our outlook.

由於我們面臨的獨特環境，讓我向您介紹我們展望中的一些關鍵假設。

At a macro level, our assumptions for Collins and Pratt are based on vaccines being widely available in the U.S. by midyear, that there isn't another wave of the pandemic and that RPMs improve meaningfully during the year.

在宏觀層面上，我們對柯林斯和普拉特的假設是基於到年中疫苗將在美國廣泛使用，不會再出現另一波大流行，並且今年的 RPM 會顯著改善。

For example, in order for us to see the high end of our commercial aero ranges, we need to see sequential RPM improvement throughout the peak summer travel season of 20% to 30% each quarter, leading to a 40% to 50% year-over-year improvement.

例如，為了讓我們看到商用航空系列的高端產品，我們需要看到整個夏季旅行旺季的每季轉速連續提高 20% 至 30%，從而導致全年轉速提高 40% 至 50%。較上年改善。

We are also assuming that load factors improve along with RPMs and corresponding growth in available seat miles, which fuels our aftermarket.

我們還假設負載率隨著轉速和可用座位里程的相應增長而提高，這將為我們的售後市場提供動力。

For RMD and RIS, we also expect volume to increase sequentially as we execute on our strong backlog and that the DoD budget is implemented without delays.

對於 RMD 和 RIS，我們還預計，隨著我們執行大量積壓訂單以及國防部預算的立即實施，數量將連續增加。

We also expect sequential margin improvement as our programs percent complete increase and approach a more normalized premerger level as we exit 2021.

我們還預計，隨著我們的計劃完成百分比增加，並在 2021 年退出時接近更正常化的合併前水平，利潤率將連續改善。

With that, let's move to Slide 11 for the segment outlooks.

接下來，讓我們轉到投影片 11，了解細分市場的前景。

You'll notice that we've included our sales and operating profit expectations for the year.

您會注意到，我們已經包含了今年的銷售額和營業利潤預期。

Given the tough compare in Q1, we've also included our Q2 to Q4 outlook here as well.

鑑於第一季的艱難比較，我們也在此納入了第二季至第四季的展望。

I should note that the major variable for Collins and Pratt is the trajectory and mix of the aftermarket recovery, as you'd expect.

我應該指出，正如您所期望的那樣，柯林斯和普拉特的主要變數是售後市場復甦的軌跡和組合。

I'll start with Collins, where we see sales for the year down high to low single digits on an adjusted basis, and down mid-single to down slightly on an organic basis.

我將從柯林斯開始，我們看到該公司今年的銷售額在調整後從高個位數下降到低個位數，在有機基礎上從中個位數下降到小幅下降。

We expect full year operating profit to be in the range of down $275 million to up $25 million versus last year.

我們預計全年營業利潤將比去年減少 2.75 億美元至增加 2,500 萬美元。

I should note that military sales at Collins are expected to be up low to mid-single digits organically for the year.

我應該指出，柯林斯今年的軍售預計將有機成長到中個位數。

As we think about Q2 to Q4, we are assuming that we see a 20% to 30% year-over-year recovery in parts and repair sales, and a 15% to 25% recovery of mods and upgrades and provisioning sales that drive total sales growth over the Q2 to Q4 period of mid-single to low double digits.

當我們考慮第二季到第四季時，我們假設零件和維修銷售將年比恢復 20% 至 30%，改裝、升級和配置銷售將恢復 15% 至 25%，從而推動總銷售額的成長。第第二季至第四季的銷售額成長為中個位數至低兩位數。

Turning now to Pratt & Whitney.

現在轉向普惠公司。

We expect sales to be flat to up mid-single digits for the year, and operating profit to be in the range of down $125 million to up $25 million.

我們預計今年銷售額將持平或上升中個位數，營業利潤將在下降 1.25 億美元至成長 2,500 萬美元之間。

Military sales at Pratt are expected to be down slightly to roughly in line with last year after growing 14% in 2020.

普拉特的軍品銷售在 2020 年成長 14% 後，預計將略有下降，與去年大致持平。

As we think about Q2 to Q4, we expect legacy large commercial engine shop visits to be up 25% to 30% year-over-year, which drive sales growth over the Q2 to Q4 period of low double digits to mid-teens.

考慮到第二季至第四季度，我們預計傳統大型商用引擎商店的訪問量將年增25% 至30%，這將推動第二季至第四季的銷售成長從低兩位數到中雙位數。

Turning to the defense businesses.

轉向國防業務。

Let me first mention that we'll talk about these segments on a pro forma basis.

首先我要提到的是，我們將在形式上討論這些部分。

First, this means we'll talk about both segments as though they were part of RTX for all of 2020.

首先，這意味著我們將討論這兩個部分，就好像它們是 2020 年 RTX 的一部分一樣。

Second, we have aligned our reconnaissance and targeting systems and electro-optical innovations product lines from RMD segment to RIS to better align the businesses, which we've also recast.

其次，我們調整了從 RMD 部門到 RIS 的偵察和瞄準系統以及電光創新產品線，以更好地調整業務，我們也重新調整了業務。

A summary of pro forma 2020 results, inclusive of these impacts can be found in the webcast appendix.

網路廣播附錄中包含了 2020 年預計結果摘要（包括這些影響）。

So at Raytheon Intelligence & Space, we expect full year sales to grow low to mid-single digits, with strength coming from classified programs in ISR and space.

因此，在雷神情報與航太公司，我們預計全年銷售額將實現低至中個位數的成長，其中動力來自情監偵和太空領域的機密項目。

And we see operating profit growing $125 million to $175 million.

我們預計營業利潤將成長 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元。

I should note here that as we look at Q2 to Q4, operating profit is expected to be up $175 million to $200 million.

我應該在這裡指出，當我們觀察第二季到第四季時，營業利潤預計將增加 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元。

And at Raytheon Missiles & Defense, we expect sales to grow low to mid-single digits, driven by volume growth across multiple programs.

在雷神飛彈與國防公司，我們預計在多個專案銷售成長的推動下，銷售額將低至中個位數成長。

We see operating profit up $25 million to $75 million.

我們預計營業利潤將增加 2,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元。

It's also worth noting that as we look at Q2 to Q4, RMD's operating profit is expected to be up $150 million to $175 million.

另外值得注意的是，從第二季到第四季來看，RMD 的營業利潤預計將成長 1.5 億美元至 1.75 億美元。

Moving to Slide 12.

轉到投影片 12。

We have provided an outlook for some below-the-line items.

我們提供了一些線下專案的前景。

I'll also mention that we've included a multiyear pension outlook in the webcast appendix.

我還要提到，我們在網路廣播附錄中包含了多年退休金展望。

Now turning to Slide 13 for our 2021 EPS walk, starting with the segments.

現在轉向投影片 13，了解我們的 2021 年 EPS 行走，從各個部分開始。

While they're expected to be relatively flat for the year, as you can see, that's driven by the tough compare in Q1.

正如您所看到的，儘管今年預計它們將相對持平，但這是由第一季的艱難比較所推動的。

We expect the segments to generate a little over $0.90 of EPS growth at the midpoint of the outlook range in the last 9 months of the year.

我們預計，在今年最後 9 個月的展望範圍中點，這些細分市場的每股盈餘成長將略高於 0.90 美元。

Pension will be a significant tailwind, primarily driven by adjustments to legacy plans, favorable interest rate movements and favorable asset performance.

退休金將成為一個重要的推動因素，主要受到遺留計劃調整、有利的利率變動和良好的資產表現的推動。

Our adjusted effective tax rate in 2021 is expected to be about 19% versus 17.5% in 2020, resulting from higher projections of U.S. income as well as some favorable tax results in 2020 related to prior years, which aren't expected to repeat.

我們預計2021 年調整後的有效稅率約為19%，而2020 年為17.5%，這是由於對美國收入的預測較高，以及2020 年與前幾年相關的一些有利的稅收結果，預計不會重複。

This will result in a $0.09 headwind.

這將導致 0.09 美元的逆風。

And corporate expenses, interest and all other will be an $0.18 headwind at the midpoint of the range, primarily driven by a step-up for LTAMDS as the program continues to achieve its development milestones in 2021 as well as costs achieve synergies and some higher interest expense.

企業費用、利息和所有其他費用將在該範圍的中點出現0.18 美元的逆風，這主要是由於LTAMDS 的升級推動的，因為該計劃將在2021 年繼續實現其發展里程碑，並且成本實現協同效應和一些更高的利息費用。

All of this brings us to our outlook range of $3.40 to $3.70.

所有這些使我們的展望範圍為 3.40 美元至 3.70 美元。

Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 14, just a few comments here before I turn it back over to Greg.

現在轉向幻燈片 14 上的自由現金流，在我將其轉回給 Greg 之前，這裡僅做一些評論。

As you know, we had $2.3 billion of full year pro forma free cash flow in 2020.

如您所知，2020 年全年預計自由現金流為 23 億美元。

When you take into account the 2021 timers that we've discussed, the extraordinary strength of RMD's international collections and the discretionary pension contributions we made, we saw a normalized operational free cash flow of about $3.5 billion in 2020.

當你考慮到我們討論過的2021 年計時器、RMD 國際集合的非凡實力以及我們所做的可自由支配的養老金繳款時，我們看到2020 年正常化的運營自由現金流約為35 億美元。

From there, as I've discussed previously, we expect about $500 million in 2021 cost to achieve RTX synergies and restructuring and to invest about $600 million in capital to implement structural cost-reduction actions that we've announced.

正如我之前所討論的，我們預計 2021 年將花費約 5 億美元的成本來實現 RTX 協同效應和重組，並投資約 6 億美元的資本來實施我們已宣布的結構性成本削減行動。

Finally, we expect about $2.1 billion of operational growth, driven by improvements in working capital and operating profit to bring us to our outlook of about $4.5 billion of free cash flow for the full year.

最後，我們預計，在營運資本和營業利潤改善的推動下，營運成長將達到約 21 億美元，這將使我們對全年自由現金流的預期達到約 45 億美元。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Greg to wrap things up.

有了這個，我會把它交還給格雷格來結束事情。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Toby.

謝謝，托比。

So I know there's a lot of data that we just went through as it relates to the 2021 outlook.

所以我知道我們剛剛查看了很多與 2021 年展望相關的數據。

It's important that you understand kind of the baseline of what we're thinking as we provide the guidance for '21.

重要的是，您要了解我們在為 21 世紀提供指導時所思考的基線。

Obviously, first quarter is going to be a very tough compare because of the record Q1 we had in 2020.

顯然，由於 2020 年第一季創紀錄，第一季將是一個非常艱難的比較。

But we do remain confident in the full year outlook as well as the recovery in the back half of the year.

但我們對全年前景以及下半年的復甦仍然充滿信心。

Before I go on to the final slide here, so #15 for those of you following along.

在我繼續看最後一張投影片之前，請先關注#15。

But before I go into our priorities, let me just take a minute to thank every member of the Raytheon Technologies team for their efforts in navigating a year of unprecedented challenges, and particularly those on the production line and those in the SCIFs that came to work every single day during the pandemic to make sure we could meet our customer commitments.

但在討論我們的優先事項之前，請允許我花一分鐘時間感謝雷神技術團隊的每一位成員，特別是那些在生產線上和SCIF 工作的人員，他們在應對這一前所未有的挑戰中所做的努力大流行期間的每一天，以確保我們能夠履行對客戶的承諾。

Really, an incredible effort and that we thank you all.

真的，這是令人難以置信的努力，我們感謝你們所有人。

Okay.

好的。

Let me close on an overview of our priorities.

最後讓我概述一下我們的優先事項。

First, obviously, we're going to continue to support our employees, our customers and our suppliers, as we always do.

首先，顯然，我們將一如既往地繼續支持我們的員工、客戶和供應商。

We do see brighter days ahead with the rollout of the vaccine, but we'll continue to remain vigilant about the health and safety of our employees.

隨著疫苗的推出，我們確實看到了光明的日子，但我們將繼續對員工的健康和安全保持警惕。

One of the priorities in supporting our employees, of course, is to promote a more diverse and inclusive workforce.

當然，支持員工的首要任務之一是促進員工隊伍更加多元化和包容性。

DE&I remains high on our agenda, and it's an imperative for how we do business.

DE&I 仍然是我們議程中的重要議題，它對於我們經營業務的方式至關重要。

This will make us a better company, a better employer and a better member of our community.

這將使我們成為更好的公司、更好的雇主和更好的社區成員。

To that end, I'm pleased to announce the appointment of a Chief Diversity Officer, Marie Sylla-Dixon, who joined RTX at the beginning of January.

為此，我很高興地宣布任命 Marie Sylla-Dixon 為首席多元化官，她於 1 月初加入 RTX。

She's going to accelerate our ongoing initiatives.

她將加速我們正在進行的計劃。

She's a member of my executive leadership team and she's wasted no time in getting to work.

她是我的執行領導團隊的成員，她不浪費時間就開始工作。

Marie is responsible for leading our diversity, equity and inclusion strategy and implementing the major initiatives of the 4 pillars of that strategy, that is talent management, community engagement, public policy, and supplier diversity.

瑪麗負責領導我們的多元化、公平和包容性策略，並實施該策略四大支柱的主要舉措，即人才管理、社區參與、公共政策和供應商多元化。

Next priority is continuing to invest and develop leading-edge technology and innovation.

下一個優先事項是繼續投資和開發領先的技術和創新。

A key tenet of the merger was identifying ways to leverage our R&D capabilities and innovative technologies across both the commercial aerospace and defense markets, and bringing them together to create advanced products and solutions to meet our customers' complex and emerging needs.

合併的一個關鍵宗旨是確定如何利用我們在商業航空航太和國防市場的研發能力和創新技術，並將它們結合在一起創造先進的產品和解決方案，以滿足客戶複雜和新興的需求。

These technologies have the potential to generate billions of dollars in revenue synergies over their lifetime and are key enablers to capturing the full value of the Raytheon Technologies mergers.

這些技術有可能在其生命週期內產生數十億美元的收入協同效應，並且是實現雷神科技公司合併的全部價值的關鍵推動因素。

Executing on the integration also remains a key priority.

執行整合仍然是關鍵優先事項。

We remain on track to deliver over $1 billion in gross cost synergies from the Raytheon merger as well as $600 million in synergies from the Rockwell Collins acquisition.

我們仍有望透過雷神公司的合併帶來超過 10 億美元的總成本協同效應，並透過收購羅克韋爾柯林斯公司帶來 6 億美元的協同效應。

We're, of course, also continuing to be laser-focused on driving structural cost reduction.

當然，我們也將繼續專注於推動結構性成本降低。

We've already executed on some significant actions, and the team is working on a pipeline of additional opportunities.

我們已經執行了一些重大行動，團隊正在開發一系列其他機會。

And of course, we're going to remain disciplined with our capital allocation, balanced between investments in the business and returning cash to shareowners.

當然，我們將繼續嚴格控制資本配置，在業務投資和向股東返還現金之間保持平衡。

Looking ahead, I remain excited about the future of the business as we approach the 1-year anniversary of the merger closing.

展望未來，隨著合併完成一周年的臨近，我對業務的未來仍然感到興奮。

Our balanced and diversified portfolio of industry-leading commercial aerospace and defense businesses are resilient across business and economic cycles.

我們業界領先的商業航空航太和國防業務均衡且多元化的投資組合在整個商業和經濟週期中都具有彈性。

And I'm extremely confident that commercial aerospace will recover.

我對商業航空航太將會復甦非常有信心。

It's not a question of if, it's simply a question of when.

這不是是否的問題，而只是何時的問題。

And when it does recover, our focus on cost, productivity investments and technology will position us to deliver higher margins, strong cash flow and significant value to our shareowners and our customers.

當經濟復甦時，我們對成本、生產力投資和技術的關注將使我們能夠為我們的股東和客戶提供更高的利潤、強勁的現金流和巨大的價值。

So with that, I know a lot of data -- a lot of ground we covered but let me open it up for questions.

因此，我知道了很多數據——我們涵蓋了很多基礎知識，但讓我來提出問題。

Norma?

諾瑪？

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自大衛·史特勞斯與巴克萊銀行的關係。

Wanted to circle back on Collins and Pratt and, I guess, the Q2 through Q4 guidance.

我想回顧一下柯林斯和普拉特，我想還有第二季到第四季的指導。

Could you give us any help in how we should think about kind of the exit margin rate at the end of 2021?

您能給我們一些幫助，幫助我們了解 2021 年底的退出保證金率嗎？

Is Collins close to -- back close to double digits?

柯林斯是否已經接近兩位數了？

And is Pratt kind of in the mid-single-digit range?

普拉特是在中等個位數範圍內嗎？

Just trying to think about where we exit the year.

只是想想我們今年會在哪裡結束。

Yes.

是的。

David, this is Toby, let me start and then if Greg wants to add, he can jump in.

大衛，這是托比，讓我開始，然後如果格雷格想補充，他可以加入。

I think the best way to think about it is to talk about and do a little contrast and compare around decremental and incremental margins.

我認為思考這個問題的最好方法是討論並做一些對比，並圍繞遞減和增量利潤進行比較。

In the case of Collins -- and I'll kind of walk through the full year to give you the complete picture.

就柯林斯而言，我將回顧一整年的情況，以便為您提供完整的情況。

In the case of Collins, we're going to see Q1 to be similar to what we saw in the back half of the year.

就柯林斯而言，我們將看到第一季的情況與下半年類似。

Think of decrementals around 50%, again, given the tough compare and the lower volume.

考慮到艱難的比較和較低的交易量，再次考慮 50% 左右的減量。

That said, as we progress through the last 9 months of the year, including into the back half of the year, we're looking at average 80% incremental margins as the aftermarket recovers and in combination with the effects of the cost-reduction actions that we've taken.

也就是說，隨著今年最後 9 個月（包括今年下半年）的進展，隨著售後市場的復甦以及成本削減行動的影響，我們預計利潤率將平均增加 80%我們已經採取了。

So really good performance there based upon the assumptions that we talked about for the recovery.

基於我們討論的復甦假設，那裡的表現非常好。

In the case of Pratt, a little bit different.

普拉特的情況有點不同。

Decrementals in the first quarter similar to Q2 and 3 of last year, around 40%.

第一季的下降與去年第二季和第三季相似，約為 40%。

And then incremental margins in the Q2 to Q4 time frame, on average, about 30%.

然後，第二季到第四季的平均利潤率增量約為 30%。

And what you got to remember, you have the knock-on effect of the higher OE deliveries on the GTF and the negative engine margin that has some impact there.

您必須記住，原廠交付量增加對 GTF 會產生連鎖反應，而負的引擎利潤也會產生一定影響。

So of course, as we said, we qualified and gave you our assumptions on what it takes to get this type of improvement, but we feel confident in the ranges we provided and the ability of the businesses to hit these targets.

當然，正如我們所說，我們對實現此類改進所需的條件進行了限定，並向您提供了我們的假設，但我們對我們提供的範圍以及企業實現這些目標的能力充滿信心。

Great.

偉大的。

That's all very helpful.

這一切都非常有幫助。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

I was hoping you could touch a little bit on Slide 13 versus 14 and the walk from '20 to '21.

我希望你能稍微了解一下投影片 13 與 14 以及從 20 到 21 的過程。

It looks like from the operational level, there's not much of a help in the EPS walk.

從操作層面看，EPS行走並沒有太大幫助。

But there's this big operational growth bucket that drives you from $2.3 billion to $4.5 billion on the cash flow side.

但巨大的營運成長推動現金流從 23 億美元增至 45 億美元。

So maybe you could just unpack that operational growth bucket and why it doesn't show up in the earnings?

那麼，也許您可以簡單地分析營運成長桶，以及為什麼它沒有出現在收益中？

Yes.

是的。

So I think, Myles, it's Toby, the -- on Page 13, when you look at the first element of that walk, the segments, it's essentially flat.

所以我認為，邁爾斯，是托比，第 13 頁上的，當你看那次行走的第一個元素，即片段時，它基本上是平坦的。

Almost $1 to the negative, right, because of Q1 and the tough compare.

由於第一季和艱難的比較，負數幾乎為 1 美元，對吧。

And as we said, about the same, just $0.90 at the midpoint of improvement in the second half.

正如我們所說，大致相同，下半年改善的中點僅為 0.90 美元。

So really, what you're seeing on the EPS is the effects of Q1.

實際上，您在每股收益上看到的是第一季的影響。

If you go to 14, so let me try to give you a little color on the $2.1 billion on the operational growth, right?

如果您選擇 14，那麼讓我嘗試為您介紹 21 億美元的營運成長，對吧？

Really think of it in 3 buckets: a couple $300 million related to higher operating income, another roughly $300 million related to favorable pension performance on our assets, right?

實際上可以將其分為三個部分：其中 3 億美元與更高的營業收入相關，另外約 3 億美元與我們資產的良好退休金表現相關，對吧？

So over and above the prepayment that we did, another $300 million there.

因此，除了我們預付款之外，我們還額外支付了 3 億美元。

And that leaves you with about $1.5 billion.

這樣你就剩下了大約 15 億美元。

And that's really all operational working capital related, primarily at the aero businesses at Pratt and Collins.

這實際上與營運營運資本相關，主要是普拉特和柯林斯的航空業務。

And I'll give you that and to kind of break that down further into 2 pieces.

我會給你這個，並將其進一步分成兩部分。

If you look at our pro forma financial statements, on the face of it, it would show that in 2020, we consumed -- or working capital was about a $300 million headwind overall.

如果你看一下我們的備考財務報表，從表面上看，你會發現 2020 年我們消耗的——或者說營運資金總體上大約是 3 億美元的逆風。

And then on the slide, you can see we bust out the $800 million of RMD favorability on the collection.

然後在幻燈片上，您可以看到我們為該系列帶來了 8 億美元的 RMD 好感度。

So if you normalize for that, it's more like $1.1 billion.

因此，如果將其標準化，則約為 11 億美元。

And if you were to just hold that constant, have no erosion, you're going to have $1 billion, $1.1 billion benefit in 2021.

如果你保持這個不變，不受到侵蝕，那麼到 2021 年你將獲得 10 億美元、11 億美元的收益。

And then on top of that, we've targeted another, call it, $400 million to $500 million of working capital, inventory type of improvement that make up the balance of that.

除此之外，我們還瞄準了另一個目標，即 4 億至 5 億美元的營運資金，庫存類型的改進，以構成其餘額。

So we're very pleased with how Pratt and Collins, as we mentioned especially Collins in our opening comments, worked the inventory equation, the working capital in 2021.

因此，我們對普拉特和柯林斯（正如我們在開場評論中特別提到的柯林斯）如何計算庫存方程式（即 2021 年的營運資金）感到非常滿意。

Really good results in the second half of the year, and we expect to see continued improvement to drive our cash flow in 2021 as well.

下半年的業績確實不錯，我們預計 2021 年的現金流也會持續改善。

Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究的羅伯特·斯塔拉德。

This one is for Greg or maybe for Toby.

這是給格雷格的，也可能是給托比的。

If everything goes to plan in 2021, you're actually going to be adding to the $9 billion of liquidity by the look of it.

如果 2021 年一切按計劃進行，那麼從表面上看，實際上將增加 90 億美元的流動性。

As we look into next year or the year beyond, what do you think is a more realistic level of liquidity to have on the balance sheet moving forward?

當我們展望明年或以後的一年時，您認為未來資產負債表上更現實的流動性水準是多少？

Let me start and then Toby will correct me.

讓我開始，然後托比會糾正我。

As you think about it, I think we mentioned this in the early comments, we got about $3 billion of excess cash on the balance sheet today because of the divestitures.

正如你所想，我想我們在早期的評論中提到了這一點，由於資產剝離，我們今天的資產負債表上有大約 30 億美元的多餘現金。

And so as you think about 2021, we'll generate, say, roughly $4.5 billion, $3 billion of that goes to pay the dividend.

因此，當你想到 2021 年時，我們將產生約 45 億美元，其中 30 億美元用於支付股息。

And so that is the first priority for free cash flow.

因此，這是自由現金流的首要任務。

And we'll use another $1.5 billion for share buyback, and maybe that will be a little bit more than that, we'll see.

我們將另外使用 15 億美元用於股票回購，也許會比這個多一點，我們拭目以待。

But I think we don't think we need $9 billion on the balance sheet.

但我認為我們認為資產負債表上不需要 90 億美元。

There's plenty of liquidity.

流動性充足。

We've got lines of credit out there.

我們有信貸額度。

I would expect you'd see that $9 billion probably more in the $6 billion range, long term, which gives us flexibility, whether it's for some bolt-on M&A or for some additional share buyback.

我預計您會看到，從長遠來看，在60 億美元範圍內，可能會多出90 億美元，這為我們提供了靈活性，無論是用於一些補充性併購還是一些額外的股票回購。

And again, I think what's important is we're going to return the $18 billion to $20 billion that we had committed to.

再說一次，我認為重要的是我們將返還我們承諾的 180 億至 200 億美元。

But we want to grow the dividend as earnings continue to improve, and we want to be opportunistic.

但我們希望隨著獲利的持續改善而增加股息，並且我們希望抓住機會。

If we continue to see the share price kind of languishing in the 60s, we're going to be aggressive on share buyback.

如果我們繼續看到股價在 60 年代低迷，我們將積極進行股票回購。

And again, we've got the capability to do that.

再說一次，我們有能力做到這一點。

We've got a very strong balance sheet.

我們擁有非常強勁的資產負債表。

And we paid down $1 billion of debt in November.

我們在 11 月還清了 10 億美元的債務。

We've got another, I think, $0.5 billion this year to pay down.

我認為今年我們還有 5 億美元需要償還。

But the debt markets are still open and debt is cheap.

但債務市場仍開放，債務價格低廉。

So we're going to keep our options open.

所以我們將保持我們的選擇餘地。

No big M&A.

沒有大的併購。

But obviously, share buyback will be the first -- or the second priority after the dividend.

但顯然，股票回購將是第一要務，或者說是繼股息之後的第二要務。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I wanted to ask about defense.

我想問一下防守方面的問題。

Just given the EAC adjustments that we should be factoring in maybe for '21, why aren't margins really expanding there and not really big incremental profit growth?

考慮到我們可能應該在 21 年考慮 EAC 的調整，為什麼那裡的利潤率沒有真正擴大，利潤增量也沒有真正大幅成長？

Maybe, Toby, if you could touch upon that.

也許吧，托比，如果你能談談這一點的話。

Yes.

是的。

So I'll hit on both businesses separately.

因此，我將分別討論這兩項業務。

In both cases, we do expect to see some sequential improvement.

在這兩種情況下，我們確實希望看到一些連續的改進。

In the case of RIS, there still is a little bit of a drag, even though it lessens quarter-by-quarter because of the EAC reset.

就 RIS 而言，儘管由於 EAC 重置而逐季度減少，但仍存在一點阻力。

I think in the comments we had -- in the opening comments, we talked about by the time we're exiting next -- this year, not next year, exiting 2021, we'd expect the EAC reset to be a nonfactor, not talking about it anymore.

我認為，在我們的評論中——在開場評論中，我們討論了明年退出的時間——今年，而不是明年，2021 年退出，我們預計 EAC 重置將是一個無關緊要的因素，而不是不再談論它了。

So you still see a little bit of that impacting RIS.

所以你還是會看到一些對 RIS 的影響。

You see the same for RMD.

RMD 也是如此。

The other thing that RMD has -- so they're growing.

RMD 擁有的另一件事是——他們正在成長。

Their revenue growth is really driven by the -- not the acceleration, but the ramp-up on the multiyear awards, the SM-3, SM-6 multiyear awards.

他們的收入成長實際上是由多年獎（SM-3、SM-6 多年獎）的成長所推動的，而不是加速。

And there's a little bit of a mix issue.

還有一點混合問題。

Some of their mature international production programs are, as expected, winding down.

正如預期的那樣，他們的一些成熟的國際生產計劃正在逐步結束。

So while they're seeing some improvement, it is a little bit muted because of those 2 factors.

因此，雖然他們看到了一些改進，但由於這兩個因素，效果有點減弱。

But longer term, we'd expect both of those businesses, exiting '21 into '22 knowing what we know today, to be able to continue to improve the margins going forward as well.

但從長遠來看，我們預計這兩家公司在從 21 世紀退出進入 22 世紀後，了解我們今天所知的情況，也能夠繼續提高未來的利潤率。

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

When you think about all the cost actions you've taken and the realignment and all that, how much of that do you see as permanent?

當您考慮您已採取的所有成本行動以及重新調整等等時，您認為其中有多少是永久性的？

And how much of that's going to come back when volume comes back?

當成交量恢復時，其中有多少會恢復？

And then along the same lines, how do you know you haven't cut too deep, right, when you think about the engineering force that you got rid of and so on and so forth.

然後沿著同樣的思路，當你考慮你擺脫的工程力量等等時，你怎麼知道你沒有切得太深，對吧。

I mean how do you know you didn't kind of cut into the bone?

我的意思是你怎麼知道你沒有切到骨頭？

Well, look, I think we were aggressive in 2020 in terms of taking cost out.

好吧，我認為 2020 年我們在削減成本方面非常積極。

I think Toby took you through the numbers.

我想托比帶你了解了這些數字。

We'll have about 20,000, 21,000 positions will have come out of the organization on the commercial side of the business over the last 9 months between contractors and full-time employees.

在過去的 9 個月裡，我們將在商業方面產生約 20,000 個、21,000 個職位，包括承包商和全職員工。

And clearly, on the production side, we'll see some folks added back as volume comes back.

顯然，在生產方面，隨著產量的恢復，我們會看到一些人回來。

I think what -- if you would talk to Steve Timm at Collins and Chris Calio at Pratt, what they'll tell you, though, is what they don't want to do is bring back all of the indirects.

我認為，如果你與柯林斯的史蒂夫·蒂姆和普拉特的克里斯·卡里奧交談，他們會告訴你，他們不想做的就是恢復所有的間接。

And as Toby was alluding to, we'll see very strong incremental margins on the upside.

正如托比所提到的，我們將看到非常強勁的利潤增量。

We did cut R&D.

我們確實削減了研發。

And again, I think that was all appropriate.

再說一次，我認為這都是適當的。

We've pushed out some programs.

我們已經推出了一些計劃。

But that R&D, some of that will come back, but I don't think that we have stopped investing in anything that's key to the long term.

但是研發，其中一些將會回來，但我不認為我們已經停止對任何對長期至關重要的事情進行投資。

And if you think about -- even as we go into 2021, we're going to invest $5 billion, $2.5 billion of CapEx and another $2.5 billion of company-funded engineering.

如果你想一想，即使進入 2021 年，我們也將投資 50 億美元，其中 25 億美元的資本支出以及另外 25 億美元的公司資助工程。

So we're going to continue to invest where we need to, and we're going to continue to have a very lean cost structure really to support this business going forward.

因此，我們將繼續在需要的地方進行投資，並且我們將繼續擁有非常精簡的成本結構，真正支持這項業務的未來發展。

And again, what we want to do is drive margins higher, right?

再說一遍，我們想要做的是提高利潤率，對吧？

We still remain committed to the Collins margins up near 20% as the recovery comes through; as well as Pratt, kind of the mid-teens margin.

隨著經濟復甦，我們仍致力於將柯林斯利潤率提高近 20%；還有普拉特（Pratt），大約在十幾歲左右。

And to do that, you're going to have to be focused on costs.

為此，您必須關注成本。

So we cut deep.

所以我們深入。

We cut where we had to.

我們削減了必須削減的地方。

But I don't think we have sacrificed the future in any way.

但我不認為我們以任何方式犧牲了未來。

No.

不。

And I think, Ron, the only thing I'd add, spot on with what Greg said.

我想，羅恩，我唯一要補充的是，與格雷格所說的話相符。

Even on the headcount reductions on the direct side, as we continue to advance our focus on automation and digital and how we operate the business, we're obviously going to look to, as Greg alluded to, right, drive the margins and therefore not necessarily just automatically bring the direct part of the workforce back.

即使在直接裁員方面，隨著我們繼續推進對自動化和數位化以及我們的業務運營方式的關注，我們顯然會尋求，正如格雷格所暗示的那樣，提高利潤率，因此不會必然會自動將直接勞動力部分帶回來。

And we certainly are going to look to not have any of the indirect come back.

我們當然會避免任何間接的影響。

And remember, there was about $1 billion worth of labor savings as a result of that.

請記住，此舉節省了價值約 10 億美元的勞動力。

And maybe half and half direct and indirect.

也許直接和間接各佔一半。

And also all, if not most, all of that indirect won't come back.

而且所有（如果不是大多數）所有的間接影響都不會回來。

And some portion of the direct will, but I don't think it all will.

還有一部分是直接意願，但我不認為全部都會。

Our next question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Carter Copeland。

Greg or Toby, I wonder if you could give us a little bit more color on this RMD DCS contract and just sort of what happened there in terms of regulatory approval.

Greg 或 Toby，我想知道您能否為我們提供有關 RMD DCS 合約的更多信息，以及在監管批准方面發生的情況。

Is this a contract you were working on expecting approval?

這是您正在處理並等待批准的合約嗎？

Or a contract with a customer that got truncated because of something?

或與客戶簽訂的合約因某些原因而被終止？

Just help us understand the -- what went on there.

只是幫助我們了解那裡發生了什麼。

And is there any risk of similar sort of contracts happening again in the future?

未來是否有再次發生類似合約的風險？

Yes.

是的。

So this is a legacy contract that we had for a customer in the Middle East.

這是我們為中東客戶簽訂的遺留合約。

And obviously, we can't talk about the customer.

顯然，我們不能談論客戶。

If you go back and look at the 10-K, you can probably figure out what specifically this is.

如果你回頭看看 10-K，你可能就能弄清楚這具體是什麼。

But we had taken this contract.

但我們已經接受了這份合約。

It was a direct foreign sale, and we had assumed that we were going to get a license to provide these offensive weapon systems to our customer.

這是一次直接的對外銷售，我們假設我們將獲得向客戶提供這些進攻性武器系統的許可證。

With the change in administration, it becomes less likely that we're going to be able to get a license for this.

隨著政府的更迭，我們獲得此許可的可能性變得越來越小。

And so we appropriately decided that we could no longer support the booking of that contract.

因此，我們適當地決定不再支持該合約的預訂。

It's not to say it won't ever happen, but we took, I think, a conservative view to say, given the new administration, it's unlikely we're going to get a license for these offensive weapon systems for this Middle Eastern customer.

這並不是說它永遠不會發生，但我認為，我們持保守觀點說，考慮到新政府，我們不太可能為這個中東客戶獲得這些進攻武器系統的許可。

Again, it's really the only one we have out there.

再說一遍，這確實是我們唯一的一個。

And again, this is an offensive weapons system.

再說一次，這是一個進攻性武器系統。

If you think about Patriot and some of the other defensive systems we have, no issues with getting licenses.

如果您考慮愛國者和我們擁有的其他一些防禦系統，那麼獲得許可證就沒有問題。

But offensive weapons a little bit more difficult.

但進攻武器有點困難。

And so as we go forward, what we're going to do is we'll work with the DoD.

因此，當我們前進時，我們要做的就是與國防部合作。

We'll try and do these through FMS as opposed through direct foreign sales to make sure we've got alignment with DoD and the administration before we book any of these.

我們將嘗試透過 FMS 來完成這些任務，而不是透過直接對外銷售來完成這些任務，以確保在預訂這些任務之前我們已經與國防部和政府保持一致。

But this is really kind of a -- it was a big contract, but it's a one-off and there's really not much else out there like this.

但這確實是一份大合同，但它是一次性的，而且確實沒有太多像這樣的合約。

The only thing I would add, Carter, to what Greg commented on.

卡特，我唯一要補充的是格雷格的評論。

We had, had a track record where we were successful on other similar contracts in the past in obtaining all the approvals.

我們過去有過在其他類似合約上成功獲得所有批准的記錄。

Even in this one here, what really flipped us to the fact of it not being probable was, as Greg said, the change in the administration.

即使在這裡，真正讓我們意識到這不可能的事實是，正如格雷格所說，政府的更迭。

It was notified under the prior administration, just a little bit late in the game to get to the process.

它是在前政府的領導下得到通知的，只是在這個過程中有點晚了。

So our judgment changed and now we don't believe it's probable.

所以我們的判斷發生了變化，現在我們認為不太可能。

And as Greg said, we did the proper accounting based upon that change in view.

正如格雷格所說，我們根據觀點的變化進行了適當的核算。

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Does it signal any change of sorts in your growth expectations in that part of the world?

這是否表明您對該地區的成長預期有任何變化？

No, no, no.

不不不。

Look, peace is not going to break out in the Middle East anytime soon.

看，中東不會很快實現和平。

So I think it remains an area where we'll continue to see solid growth.

因此，我認為這仍然是一個我們將繼續看到穩健成長的領域。

But again, it's just the nature of this weapon system is such that it's more difficult to sell it on a direct basis versus an FMS basis.

但同樣，這種武器系統的性質決定了直接銷售比 FMS 銷售更困難。

And this particular product, right, the offense ammunition, the dependency in our revenue profile had been declining year-over-year.

這個特殊的產品，對吧，進攻彈藥，對我們收入狀況的依賴一直在逐年下降。

The volume on this peaked maybe 3, 4, 5 years ago.

這方面的數量可能在三、四、五年前達到頂峰。

I may be off by a year or 2, but it's certainly not material going forward and we didn't have a material expectation on it contributing to the results going forward.

我可能會落後一兩年，但這對未來來說肯定不重要，而且我們並沒有對它對未來結果的貢獻抱持實質的期望。

Our next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克。

Just going back to the effort to piece together the Collins and Pratt segment guidance.

回到拼湊柯林斯和普拉特細分指導的努力。

I guess to get into both the full year and then also the 2Q to 4Q Collins revenue guidance, it's just -- it's not a lot of growth in the back half despite the very easy compares and the potential for air travel to be recovering.

我想無論是全年還是第二季度到第四季度柯林斯的收入指引，儘管很容易進行比較並且航空旅行有復甦的潛力，但下半年的增長並不是很多。

It basically looks like that low $4 billion quarterly run rate that you stepped down to, you would just kind of stay at through the entire year.

基本上看起來就像你降低到 40 億美元的季度運行率，你會在整個一年中保持這一水平。

And so have you just made very conservative aftermarket assumptions given that has the most -- kind of the widest range of possible outcomes in the near term?

那麼，考慮到短期內可能出現的結果範圍最廣，您是否剛剛做出了非常保守的售後市場假設？

And then with the Collins margin on that, an 80% incremental is a big number.

考慮到柯林斯利潤率，80% 的增量是一個很大的數字。

I guess how do you get that with that limited volume recovery?

我想你是如何透過有限的恢復量來實現這一點的呢？

And therefore, is it safe to keep that next year with a better volume recovery before then settling into something more normal after that?

因此，明年以更好的銷售恢復來保持這一水平，然後再進入更正常的狀態是否安全？

So Noah, let me try and start in on that.

諾亞，讓我試著開始吧。

I think what you have to think about in terms of the Collins and Pratt story is, on the OE side, the OEM side, you are not going to see much growth in the back half of the year, right?

我認為你必須根據柯林斯和普拉特的故事來考慮的是，在 OE 方面、OEM 方面，你不會在今年下半年看到太多成長，對吧？

That really is -- in fact, we're actually going to see on the Collins side probably a drop in OE because of the 787 going from 12 to 5 aircraft.

事實上，我們實際上會看到柯林斯方面的 OE 可能會下降，因為 787 飛機數量從 12 架減少到 5 架。

Even with 737 coming online, we've already delivered about 1/3 of the inventory for the full year production at Boeing.

即使 737 投入使用，我們也已經交付了波音全年生產庫存的約 1/3。

So we're just not going to see a big step-up in the OE.

所以我們不會看到操作環境有很大的提升。

So think about that as flat.

所以把它想像成平坦的。

On the -- and the same holds true at Pratt, right?

在普拉特也是如此，對吧？

We expect roughly flat production for A320s during the course of the year.

我們預計今年 A320 的產量大致持平。

Now there may be some upside if they go to -- from 40 to 47, but we'll see.

現在，如果他們從 40 升至 47，可能會有一些上行空間，但我們拭目以待。

There's a lot of white tail sitting out there right now.

現在那裡有很多白尾巴。

So we're prepared to support it if it does.

因此，如果確實如此，我們準備好支持它。

But frankly, we think we may be conservative.

但坦白說，我們認為我們可能比較保守。

Keep in mind that doesn't help margins, that actually hurts margin if OE goes up.

請記住，這對利潤率沒有幫助，如果 OE 上升，實際上會損害利潤率。

What's important to keep in mind, though, is the aftermarket.

不過，要記住的重要一點是售後市場。

And I think we have been optimistic in terms of the Collins aftermarket.

我認為我們對柯林斯售後市場持樂觀態度。

But after a tough first quarter, we expect sequentially 10% growth each quarter in the Collins aftermarket from Q2 to Q3 to Q4.

但在經歷了艱難的第一季之後，我們預計柯林斯售後市場從第二季到第三季再到第四季每季都會連續成長 10%。

And margins, obviously, will get sequentially better because, obviously, the aftermarket growth is much better margin than the OE side.

顯然，利潤率將持續提高，因為售後市場的成長顯然比原廠的利潤率好得多。

At the same time, provisioning, which is a big piece of the aftermarket at Collins, is probably not going to grow much because, again, that's all tied to OE delivery.

同時，供應是柯林斯售後市場的重要組成部分，可能不會成長太多，因為這又與原廠交付緊密相關。

So again, I think we've got a pretty decent recovery path on aftermarket.

再說一遍，我認為我們在售後市場上有一條相當不錯的復甦之路。

Could it be better?

還能更好嗎？

Perhaps.

也許。

But keep in mind, we're sitting here at the end of January.

但請記住，我們在一月底坐在這裡。

Q2 has got to grow 10% and then Q3.

第二季必須成長 10%，然後是第三季。

That means air traffic has got to start picking up soon.

這意味著空中交通必須很快開始回升。

And RPM has got to continue to grow throughout the course of the year.

RPM 必須在這一年中繼續成長。

And so Noah, to Greg's point, you're going to have that compounding effect of that sequential quarter-over-quarter growth.

因此，諾亞，按照格雷格的觀點，你將獲得環比連續成長的複合效應。

And you will see in this range here, when you unpack it down just to the aftermarket, as Greg said, you will see, especially as we get towards the end of the year, the growth in the aftermarket in both of those businesses, high teens, 25%, 30%, right?

正如格雷格所說，在這個範圍內，當您將其分解到售後市場時，您會看到，特別是當我們接近年底時，這兩個業務的售後市場的增長都很高青少年，25% 、30%，對嗎？

So there is some substantial growth expected from aftermarket, and it is the one variable here that we are really trying to assess when we provided the level -- the ranges that we did for the year.

因此，售後市場預計會出現一些實質成長，這是我們在提供這一水準時真正試圖評估的變數——我們今年所做的範圍。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, if I have OE flat and then the defense piece still growing and then aftermarket growing 10%, it's just spinning out higher numbers, but...

我的意思是，如果我的 OE 持平，然後防禦部分仍在增長，然後售後市場增長 10%，它只會產生更高的數字，但...

I mean -- yes.

我的意思是——是的。

Remember, Pratt, though, defense is flattish, right?

不過，記住，普拉特，防守很平淡，對吧？

We had a real strong growth this past year, 14%.

去年我們實現了 14% 的強勁成長。

So defense at Pratt, at least, is going to be more on the flat side.

因此，至少普拉特的防守將更加平坦。

It could even be down a tad.

甚至可能會下降一點。

Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格。

As air traffic recovers, how quickly should we expect commercial aerospace aftermarket to come back?

隨著空中交通的恢復，我們應該預期商業航空航太售後市場多快恢復？

Is it a concurrent recovery?

是並發恢復嗎？

Or do you expect to see a delay?

或者您預計會出現延遲嗎？

And I guess to put it another way, to what degree would these cash conservation actions from airlines affect the pace of that growth?

我想換句話說，航空公司的這些現金節約行動會在多大程度上影響成長速度？

So I think what we have seen historically is a lag between when we see RPM start to pick up versus when we see aftermarket start to pick up.

因此，我認為我們從歷史上看到的是，轉速開始回升與售後市場開始回升之間存在著滯後。

Now we know that the airlines have done a lot in terms of cash conservation in 2020.

現在我們知道，2020年航空公司在節省現金方面做了很多工作。

They have deferred a lot of maintenance.

他們推遲了很多維護工作。

They have diminished their inventory.

他們減少了庫存。

So we're actually expecting to see a quicker rebound this time in the aftermarket than what we have seen historically because of the very, very deep cuts that the airlines have made in their stock of inventory.

因此，我們實際上預計這次售後市場的反彈將比歷史上更快，因為航空公司已經大幅削減了庫存。

So it won't be a 6-month delay, but it may be a few -- maybe a quarter off.

因此，這不會是 6 個月的延遲，但可能會更少——也許是四分之一的延遲。

But again, we're already starting to see inputs pick up a little bit as air traffic has started to come back.

但同樣，隨著空中交通開始恢復，我們已經開始看到輸入有所回升。

And again, it's simply a matter of time and we've got 10% growth, as I said, in Q2, Q3, Q4.

再說一遍，這只是時間問題，正如我所說，我們在第二季、第三季、第四季實現了 10% 的成長。

That assumes we're going to see RPM growth in that same range.

假設我們將看到轉速在同一範圍內成長。

Yes.

是的。

And you're getting it right, Kristine, notwithstanding what Greg said about where there have been things that have been deferred that may create a demand a little bit earlier.

克里斯汀，你說得對，儘管格雷格說過有些事情被推遲，可能會提前一點創造需求。

Typically, you'd see the RPMs increase, drive load factors up, that in turn drive available seat miles up.

通常，您會看到轉速增加，負載係數上升，進而推動可用座位里程增加。

And there is a lag there, because it's really those ASMs in a normal environment that are going to drive the aftermarket for us.

那裡存在滯後，因為實際上是正常環境中的那些 ASM 將為我們推動售後市場。

And that's where historically, and as we've referenced before, that we have seen a potential lag of 6 months, plus or minus.

從歷史上看，正如我們之前提到的，我們已經看到了潛在的 6 個月（上下）的滯後。

One difference here, as Greg said, we've got some pent-up demand, I guess, is the way to think of it, that is a little bit of a mitigator towards that as we move through the year.

正如格雷格所說，這裡的一個區別是，我們有一些被壓抑的需求，我想，是思考它的方式，這在我們度過這一年的過程中起到了一點緩解作用。

Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Greg, regarding the free cash flow outlook, the $4.5 billion.

Greg，關於自由現金流前景，45 億美元。

When we think about just the onetime structural CapEx investment outside of that, you'd be probably over or near 100% conversion as you kind of approach the 1 year kind of mark on this merger.

當我們考慮除此之外的一次性結構性資本支出投資時，當您接近本次合併的 1 年標記時，您可能會超過或接近 100% 的轉換。

How are you thinking about your ability to kind of sustain that kind of 100% free cash flow conversion when we think about the longer term?

當我們考慮更長期的情況時，您如何看待您維持這種 100% 自由現金流轉換的能力？

Yes.

是的。

Peter, I think as we've targeted and we did prior to the merger, we still think we can be generating $8 billion to $9 billion of free cash flow as the market recovers.

彼得，我認為正如我們在合併之前設定的目標和所做的那樣，我們仍然認為隨著市場復甦，我們可以產生 80 億至 90 億美元的自由現金流。

And I think these cash conservation actions that we've taken, some of them -- some of this is structural cost reduction, all of that is going to help free cash flow over the long term.

我認為我們採取的這些現金節約行動，其中一些是結構性成本削減，所有這些都將有助於長期的自由現金流。

So I don't think -- think about that $4.5 billion normalized, if you take out the investments, north of $5 billion, that's going to continue to grow over the next several years back to that $8 billion to $9 billion that we had forecast.

所以我不認為 - 想想正常化的 45 億美元，如果你去掉 50 億美元以上的投資，在未來幾年裡，這將繼續增長到我們預測的 80 億至 90 億美元。

So there's no impediments, in my mind, to hitting 100% free cash flow and net income.

因此，在我看來，實現 100% 自由現金流和淨利潤沒有任何障礙。

We don't have to make bigger investments in CapEx.

我們不必在資本支出上進行更大的投資。

I'd tell you, the one challenge as we look at cash flow in the out-years, of course, is the R&D amortization, the change in the tax law, which will force us to capitalize R&D and then amortize it over 5 years, but we'll see what happens with corporate taxes.

我想告訴你，當我們考慮未來幾年的現金流時，一個挑戰當然是研發攤銷，即稅法的變化，這將迫使我們將研發資本化，然後在 5 年內攤銷，但我們會看看公司稅會發生什麼事。

That's a 2022, '23 issue, not a '21 issue.

那是 2022 年、23 年的問題，而不是 21 年的問題。

And this concludes our Q&A portion.

我們的問答部分到此結束。

I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Hayes for any further remarks.

我想將電話轉回海耶斯先生以徵求進一步意見。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Norma, and thank you, everyone, for listening in.

謝謝諾瑪，也謝謝大家的聆聽。

And as always, Neil and the whole IR team is available to answer your questions.

像往常一樣，Neil 和整個 IR 團隊隨時可以回答您的問題。

I want to thank you all for listening in.

我要感謝大家的收聽。

Everybody stay healthy and be well.

每個人都保持健康並身體健康。

Take care.

小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Everyone, have a wonderful day.

祝大家有美好的一天。