雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加雷神科技公司 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。

My name is Ashley, and I will be your operator for today.

我叫阿什利，今天我將擔任您的接線生。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Kelsey DeBriyn 女士。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加雷神科技公司 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。

With me on the call today are Greg Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer; Toby O'Brien, our Chief Financial Officer; and Neil Mitchill, Corporate Vice President, Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Greg Hayes；托比‧奧布萊恩，我們的財務長；尼爾·米切爾（Neil Mitchill），公司副總裁，負責財務規劃和分析以及投資者關係。

This call is being carried live on the Internet.

這次通話正在網路上直播。

And there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies website at www.rtx.com.

可從 Raytheon Technologies 網站 www.rtx.com 下載簡報。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring costs and other significant items of a nonrecurring and/or nonoperational nature, often referred to by management as other significant items.

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括重組成本和其他非經常性和/或非經營性的重大項目，通常被管理層稱為其他重要項目。

Before we get started, just a few comments on the structure of the business and our leadership team.

在我們開始之前，先對業務結構和我們的領導團隊進行一些評論。

Concurrent with the merger, we realigned the segments to create 4 industry-leading businesses: Raytheon Intelligence & Space, led by Roy Azevedo, is a combination of the legacy Raytheon Intelligence, Information and Services and Space and Airborne Systems segments.

在合併的同時，我們對各個部門進行了重新調整，創建了4 個行業領先的業務部門：由羅伊·阿澤維多(Roy Azevedo) 領導的雷神情報與航太部門(Raytheon Intelligence & Space) 是傳統雷神情報部門、資訊與服務部門、空間與機載系統部門的組合。

The second, Raytheon Missiles & Defense, led by Wes Kremer, is the combination of the legacy Raytheon Missile Systems and Integrated Defense Systems.

第二個是由韋斯·克雷默領導的雷神飛彈與防禦公司，是傳統雷神飛彈系統和綜合防禦系統的結合體。

Third is our Collins Aerospace business, which is now led by Steve Timm.

第三是我們的柯林斯航空航天業務，目前由史蒂夫·蒂姆領導。

And finally, Pratt & Whitney, which is led by Chris Calio.

最後是克里斯·卡里奧 (Chris Calio) 領導的普惠公司 (Pratt & Whitney)。

When we speak to Raytheon Technologies' overall results for the first quarter, we will be referring to United Technologies stand-alone, including Carrier and Otis, while speaking to Raytheon Company's company level results separately.

當我們談論雷神技術公司第一季的整體業績時，我們將指的是聯合技術公司的獨立業績，包括開利和奧的斯，而單獨談論雷神公司的公司層面業績。

At the legacy Raytheon Company business unit level, we will be speaking to each segment on a pro forma basis as the go-forward Raytheon Technologies businesses.

在傳統的雷神公司業務部門層面，我們將在預計的基礎上將每個部門作為未來的雷神技術業務進行討論。

The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述均面臨風險和不確定性。

RTC's SEC filings, including its 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

RTC 向 SEC 提交的文件（包括 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K）提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

With that, I will turn the call over to Greg.

這樣，我會將電話轉給格雷格。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Kelsey, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，凱爾西，大家早安。

So just a few things going on, and I recognize this is -- it's a little bit confusing.

發生了一些事情，我承認這有點令人困惑。

But before we get started, let me just -- one logistical item to cover here.

但在我們開始之前，讓我先介紹一個後勤專案。

So everybody knows we completed the spins of Carrier and Otis on the 3rd of April, concurrent with the merger with Raytheon, which created Raytheon Technologies.

所以大家都知道，我們在 4 月 3 日完成了 Carrier 和 Otis 的分拆，同時與 Raytheon 合併，創建了 Raytheon Technologies。

But since the transaction occurred right after the close of the first quarter, the Carrier and Otis results are, of course, included in our numbers for Q1.

但由於交易發生在第一季結束後，開利和奧的斯的業績當然包含在我們第一季的數據中。

However, we're not going to discuss that today because they're going to be holding their own earnings calls later today, and then again, tomorrow morning for Carrier.

然而，我們今天不打算討論這個問題，因為他們將在今天晚些時候舉行自己的財報電話會議，然後在明天早上再次舉行開利的財報電話會議。

So our commentary today is going to only cover the New Raytheon Technologies which, of course, is simply a focused A&D company.

因此，我們今天的評論將只涉及新雷神技術公司，當然，它只是一家專注於航空航天和國防的公司。

So with that, if you turn to Slide 2 in the webcast.

因此，如果您轉到網路廣播中的幻燈片 2。

Let me just begin my remarks by talking about the COVID-19 pandemic and what we're doing to fight or help in the war on the pandemic.

首先，我要談談 COVID-19 大流行以及我們正在採取哪些措施來對抗或幫助對抗這場流行病。

First, let me just thank our team, and particularly those of the production lines who are supporting our customers worldwide.

首先，我要感謝我們的團隊，特別是那些為我們全球客戶提供支援的生產線團隊。

I also hope that you and your families are safe.

我也希望您和您的家人安全。

To put this in perspective, we have about 195,000 employees at Raytheon Technologies.

從長遠來看，雷神技術公司擁有約 195,000 名員工。

Roughly 95,000 of those folks are working from home today.

如今，其中約有 95,000 人在家工作。

And the other 100,000 are coming to either the office or to the factories to support our customers.

另外 10 萬人將來到辦公室或工廠為我們的客戶提供支援。

And again, I think our -- just to keep in mind, our top priority is to ensure the health, welfare and safety of all of our employees.

我再次強調，請記住，我們的首要任務是確保所有員工的健康、福利和安全。

And so we're focused on making sure we do everything we can and to implement best practices.

因此，我們專注於確保盡我們所能並實施最佳實踐。

We're of course, deep-cleaning our facilities daily between shifts.

當然，我們每天在輪班之間都會對我們的設施進行深度清潔。

We're temperature-scanning our employees upon entry.

我們在員工進入時對員工進行體溫掃描。

We're rotating shifts for social distancing and providing appropriate personal protective equipment for employees that can't work from home.

我們正在輪班以保持社交距離，並為無法在家工作的員工提供適當的個人防護裝備。

Preliminary cost of that was going to be about $0.08 to $0.10 for the year.

今年的初步成本約為 0.08 至 0.10 美元。

Most of those costs will be incurred throughout the rest of the year.

其中大部分費用將在今年剩餘時間內產生。

It's a necessary expense, however, to ensure the safety of our folks.

然而，為了確保我們人民的安全，這是必要的開支。

Maintaining business continuity is also essential in order to support our commercial and defense customers during this time as we always do.

為了在這段時間內一如既往地支持我們的商業和國防客戶，保持業務連續性也至關重要。

We'll continue to serve our customers with mission-critical products and services in the U.S. and internationally, and importantly, help them rebound when this is over.

我們將繼續為美國和國際上的客戶提供關鍵任務產品和服務，更重要的是，幫助他們在疫情結束後恢復活力。

To support the frontline workers, we have donated nearly 1.5 million pieces of PPE to health care professionals and the first-responders globally.

為了支持第一線工作人員，我們已向全球醫療保健專業人員和急救人員捐贈了近 150 萬件個人防護裝備。

We're also using our 3D-printing capabilities to manufacture 20,000 face shields per month.

我們還利用 3D 列印能力每月製造 20,000 個面罩。

And we're working with suppliers to provide parts to support production of ventilators.

我們正在與供應商合作，提供零件以支援呼吸器的生產。

In fact, our business in the U.K. and our business in Canada have actually come up with designs of ventilators, and we're working with local governments to begin manufacturing.

事實上，我們在英國的業務和在加拿大的業務實際上已經提出了呼吸機的設計，我們正在與地方政府合作開始製造。

Supply chain stability, of course, is also top of mind.

當然，供應鏈的穩定性也是首要考慮的因素。

We've engaged with thousands of our small business suppliers to support them, including disseminating relevant COVID-19 information and working with them to enhance and make processes more efficient.

我們已與數千家小型企業供應商合作，為他們提供支持，包括傳播相關的 COVID-19 訊息並與他們合作，以增強流程並提高流程效率。

In terms of the impact on the business, the pandemic has led to unprecedented economic uncertainty and, of course, a huge slowdown in commercial aerospace.

就對業務的影響而言，疫情導致了前所未有的經濟不確定性，當然也導致了商業航空航太業的大幅放緩。

While both stand-alone UTC and Raytheon began the year with a strong start, it's clear the rest of the year is going to be under significant pressure as a result of the pandemic.

雖然獨立的 UTC 和雷神公司今年開局強勁，但很明顯，今年剩餘時間將因疫情而面臨巨大壓力。

Notwithstanding those challenges, however, we expect the rest of the year, Raytheon Technologies continues to be well positioned to deliver value over the long term.

然而，儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們預計今年剩餘時間，雷神科技公司將繼續處於有利地位，能夠長期創造價值。

At the same time, we're going to take immediate and necessary actions to reduce costs and to ensure we maintain a position of financial strength and market leadership so that we can emerge from this crisis stronger.

同時，我們將立即採取必要的行動來降低成本，並確保我們保持財務實力和市場領導地位，以便我們能夠在這場危機中變得更加強大。

To that end, we're taking about $2 billion of cost reduction actions and about $4 billion of cash conservation actions on the commercial aerospace side.

為此，我們在商業航空航太方面採取了約 20 億美元的成本削減行動和約 40 億美元的現金節約行動。

And we'll discuss this in further detail in the next few slides.

我們將在接下來的幾張投影片中進一步詳細討論這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Turning to Slide 3. I want to underline why this merger is even more important given the environment we face.

轉向投影片 3。我想強調為什麼考慮到我們面臨的環境，這次合併更加重要。

As the world's most advanced A&D systems provider, our portfolio is balanced and diversified against commercial aerospace and defense as well as across geographies.

作為世界上最先進的 A&D 系統供應商，我們的產品組合在商業航空航天和國防以及跨地區方面保持平衡和多元化。

This enables us to be resilient across business and economic cycles, evidenced by strong Q1 defense bookings and a record defense backlog of over $70 billion at a time when commercial aerospace is facing severe headwinds.

這使我們能夠在商業和經濟週期中保持彈性，第一季強勁的國防預訂和在商業航空航太面臨嚴重阻力之際創紀錄的超過 700 億美元的國防積壓就證明了這一點。

Interestingly, Raytheon had a great first quarter book-to-bill of 1.44 and came into the merger with $50 billion of backlog.

有趣的是，雷神公司第一季的訂單出貨比高達 1.44，並在合併時帶著 500 億美元的積壓訂單。

The legacy UTC aero business has had about $20 billion of defense backlog.

傳統的 UTC 航空業務有約 200 億美元的國防積壓訂單。

So stronger together, clearly.

顯然，在一起更強大。

Our key defense franchises are also well funded.

我們的主要國防專營權也資金充足。

Most importantly, we're well aligned with the National Defense Strategy, which is expected to shape future DoD budgets.

最重要的是，我們與國防戰略保持一致，預計該戰略將影響未來的國防部預算。

And when the aviation market and passenger traffic rebound, and they will, we will be even better positioned to deliver solid growth.

當航空市場和客運量反彈時，我們將更有能力穩健成長。

Additionally, the scale and complementary nature of our combined businesses allows us to continue to invest for breakthrough technologies for our customers as well as identify opportunities for technology revenue synergies.

此外，合併後業務的規模和互補性使我們能夠繼續為客戶投資突破性技術，並尋找技術收入協同效應的機會。

With that, just a few highlights from our 4 industry-leading segments.

以上就是我們 4 個產業領先細分市場的一些亮點。

Let me start with Collins Aerospace.

讓我從柯林斯航空航天公司開始。

So Collins saw a continued capture of synergies in the first quarter with nearly $60 million, and that's on top of the $300 million we realized last year.

因此，柯林斯在第一季持續獲得了近 6,000 萬美元的協同效應，這是在我們去年實現的 3 億美元的基礎上實現的。

Collins remains on track to achieve about $600 million of cost synergies.

Collins 仍有望實現約 6 億美元的成本綜效。

That's from the UTC's acquisition of Rockwell Collins in late 2018.

這是 UTC 在 2018 年底收購羅克韋爾柯林斯的成果。

Collins is particularly well suited with its air management interiors business to also provide solutions to the airline industry to further enhance passenger health and safety.

柯林斯特別適合其空氣管理內部業務，還可以為航空業提供解決方案，以進一步提高乘客的健康和安全。

At Pratt, the GTF engine program achieved 2 significant milestones as the first in-service GTF engine exceeded 10,000 service hours.

在普拉特，GTF 引擎計畫實現了 2 個重要里程碑，第一台在役 GTF 引擎的使用壽命超過 10,000 小時。

And more importantly, the program reached 5 million revenue flight hours across the combined GTF-powered fleet.

更重要的是，該計劃在由 GTF 驅動的聯合機隊中實現了 500 萬小時的收入飛行。

Importantly also at Pratt, the Joint Strike Fighter program delivered the 500th production aircraft.

同樣重要的是，普拉特聯合攻擊戰鬥機計畫交付了第 500 架生產型飛機。

We're just getting started with both of these programs.

我們剛開始使用這兩個程式。

Great future.

美好的未來。

At Raytheon Intelligence & Space, during the quarter, the U.S. Air Force awarded RIS the Force Element Terminal Development program.

在雷神情報與航太公司，美國空軍在本季向 RIS 授予了原力元件終端開發計畫。

That's expanding our Family of Advanced Beyond Line of Sight Terminal, our FAB-T franchise, to modernize and secure communication terminals on both the B-52 and the RC-135 aircraft.

這正在擴展我們的先進超視距終端系列（我們的 FAB-T 特許經營權），以實現 B-52 和 RC-135 飛機上通訊終端的現代化和安全性。

Finally, our Missiles & Defense business booked over $2 billion on the Standard Missile-3 IB multiyear during the quarter.

最後，我們的飛彈與國防業務在本季在標準飛彈 3 IB 多年期專案上預訂了超過 20 億美元。

Shortly after the quarter closed, RMD was also selected by the U.S. Air Force to develop the long-range standoff weapon, a strategic weapon that will replace the service's legacy air-launched cruise missile.

該季度結束後不久，美國空軍還選擇 RMD 來開發遠程防區外武器，這是一種戰略武器，將取代該部隊傳統的空射巡航飛彈。

That's a great, great achievement for the company.

這對公司來說是一項偉大的成就。

This franchise will be worth approximately $10 billion over its lifetime.

該特許經營權在其生命週期內價值約為 100 億美元。

I think the most important takeaway, though, is each of these businesses is a leader in their respective markets and are all well positioned to generate significant value over the long term by combining technologies to generate revenue synergies across all of our businesses.

不過，我認為最重要的一點是，這些業務中的每一項都是各自市場的領導者，並且都處於有利地位，可以透過結合技術在我們所有業務中產生收入協同效應，從而在長期內創造巨大價值。

Okay.

好的。

Slide 4. Fundamental to our success is the strength of our financial profile.

投影片 4. 我們成功的基礎是我們的財務實力。

And let me be clear, the balance sheet is strong and our liquidity position is solid.

讓我明確一點，資產負債表強勁，我們的流動性狀況穩固。

Following the merger, we had about $8.5 billion of cash, net debt of about $25 billion and a solid investment-grade credit rating.

合併後，我們擁有約 85 億美元的現金、約 250 億美元的淨債務和可靠的投資等級信用評級。

Combine these with the $5 billion revolver and a new $2 billion revolving credit facility, and we have plenty of financial flexibility.

將這些與 50 億美元的循環貸款和新的 20 億美元的循環信貸融通相結合，我們擁有充足的財務靈活性。

And that's before an additional $2 billion or so of proceeds from the previously announced divestitures, the majority of which are anticipated in the second half of the year.

這還不包括先前宣布的資產剝離所帶來的約 20 億美元的額外收益，其中大部分預計將在今年下半年進行。

And as I mentioned earlier, we're taking immediate actions to reduce costs by $2 billion and preserve liquidity with $4 billion cash actions.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在立即採取行動，降低 20 億美元的成本，並透過 40 億美元的現金行動保持流動性。

We're reducing capital expenditures in the investments, we've deferred merit increases across the commercial businesses and we're cutting discretionary spending, just to name a few.

我們正在減少投資中的資本支出，我們推遲了商業業務的績效成長，我們正在削減可自由支配的支出，僅舉幾例。

While many of these measures have been difficult, it is the right thing to do for the business.

儘管其中許多措施很困難，但對企業來說這是正確的事情。

We're also on track to deliver the $1 billion in gross cost synergies that we committed to when we announced the merger last June.

我們也有望實現去年 6 月宣布合併時所承諾的 10 億美元總成本綜效。

We've got a strong execution track record and an excellent playbook from Rockwell Collins and Goodrich acquisitions.

我們擁有強大的執行記錄以及羅克韋爾柯林斯和古德里奇收購的出色策略。

And after months of integration planning, our teams are working seamlessly as one company.

經過幾個月的整合規劃，我們的團隊作為一家公司無縫協作。

And we're already executing on a detailed work plan to drive our synergy commitments.

我們已經在執行詳細的工作計劃，以推動我們的協同承諾。

Regarding shareowner returns.

關於股東回報。

As you might expect, we will not be repurchasing shares this year given the current environment.

正如您所預料的那樣，鑑於當前的環境，我們今年不會回購股票。

However, we do remain committed to return significant capital to shareowners.

然而，我們仍然致力於向股東返還大量資本。

As a result, the return of the $18 billion to $20 billion that we outlined last June will more likely take place over a 4-year versus a 3-year time frame.

因此，我們去年 6 月概述的 180 億至 200 億美元的回報更有可能在 4 年而不是 3 年的時間內實現。

We also remain committed to the dividend which our Board approved last week.

我們也繼續致力於董事會上週批准的股息。

And we have sufficient cash and liquidity to maintain a competitive dividend even in this very difficult environment.

即使在這種非常困難的環境下，我們也有足夠的現金和流動性來維持有競爭力的股利。

Finally, before I turn it over to Toby to take you through the results, let me make a comment on how we're thinking about our outlook.

最後，在我將其交給托比帶您了解結果之前，讓我對我們如何看待我們的前景發表評論。

Given all the uncertainty in our commercial aero business, we're not going to provide a Raytheon Technologies outlook at this time for 2020.

鑑於我們的商業航空業務存在所有不確定性，我們目前不打算提供雷神技術公司 2020 年的展望。

Toby will give you some important information on how we're thinking about the business.

托比將為您提供一些有關我們如何看待業務的重要資訊。

And we'll be back later in the year to provide more color as the situation continues to evolve.

隨著情況的不斷發展，我們將在今年晚些時候回來提供更多的資訊。

With that, let me turn it over to Toby to take you through the first quarter results.

接下來，讓我將其交給托比，帶您了解第一季的業績。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Moving to Slide 5. As Greg said, in spite of the developing COVID-19 pandemic, Q1 was a good start to the year for Raytheon Technologies.

轉到幻燈片 5。正如 Greg 所說，儘管 COVID-19 大流行不斷發展，但第一季對 Raytheon Technologies 來說是今年的良好開端。

Since the spins and merger occurred on April 3, our reported Q1 results for Raytheon Technologies reflect the legacy United Technologies' stand-alone results, which include Carrier and Otis.

自 4 月 3 日進行分拆和合併以來，我們報告的雷神技術公司第一季業績反映了傳統聯合技術公司的獨立業績，其中包括開利和奧的斯。

Going forward, Carrier and Otis will be reflected as discontinued operations, and Raytheon's legacy business will be included from April 3 onward.

展望未來，開利和奧的斯將被反映為已終止業務，而雷神公司的遺留業務將從4月3日起納入其中。

Reported sales were $18.2 billion, down 1% versus prior year, including flat organic sales and 1 point of FX headwind.

報告銷售額為 182 億美元，比上年下降 1%，其中有機銷售額持平，且受到 1 個百分點的外匯逆風影響。

Adjusted EPS was $1.78, down 7% versus the prior year, which you'll recall is above our expectations for the quarter.

調整後每股收益為 1.78 美元，比上年下降 7%，您可能還記得，這高於我們對本季的預期。

Within the quarter, segment profit growth was more than offset by approximately $0.10 of COVID-19-related charges, the majority of which was noncash within Pratt & Whitney and Collins.

本季內，部門利潤成長被約 0.10 美元的 COVID-19 相關費用所抵消，其中大部分是普惠公司和柯林斯公司的非現金費用。

Except for interest, below-the-line items were higher versus prior year as expected.

除利息外，線下項目如預期高於上年度。

On a GAAP basis, EPS was a loss per share of $0.10, down year-over-year and included $1.88 of net nonrecurring charges and other significant items, of which $1.66 related to the portfolio separation charges.

以 GAAP 計算，每股收益為 0.10 美元虧損，年減，其中包括 1.88 美元的非經常性淨費用和其他重要項目，其中 1.66 美元與投資組合分離費用相關。

$0.18 from noncash impairments, primarily related to Carrier and Otis and $0.02 of restructuring.

0.18 美元來自非現金減值，主要與開利和奧的斯有關，0.02 美元來自重組。

Just a quick comment on our tax rate in the quarter.

只是對我們本季的稅率進行快速評論。

You note the reported effective tax rate for the first quarter was 98.5%, which was a result of tax separation expenses.

您注意到第一季報告的有效稅率為 98.5%，這是稅收分離費用的結果。

On an adjusted basis, the effective tax rate was 22.4%, which is closer to the effective tax rate that we expect for RTX going forward in 2020.

調整後的有效稅率為22.4%，更接近我們預期RTX在2020年的有效稅率。

Free cash flow was better than expected at approximately $250 million and included about $700 million of onetime cash separation payments.

自由現金流好於預期，約 2.5 億美元，其中包括約 7 億美元的一次性現金離職付款。

Total cash separation payments in the quarter were approximately $1.5 billion, of which approximately $700 million was reflected as financing outflow principally associated with make-whole payments in connection with the early retirement of debt.

本季現金離職付款總額約為 15 億美元，其中約 7 億美元反映為融資流出，主要與提前償還債務相關的全額付款相關。

Turning to Slide 6. Raytheon Company, while not included in Raytheon Technologies' first quarter results, had a strong first quarter with bookings of $10.3 billion and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.44, leading to a record backlog of $51.3 billion.

轉向幻燈片6。雷神公司雖然沒有包含在雷神技術公司第一季業績中，但第一季表現強勁，預訂量為103 億美元，預訂出貨比為1.44，導致積壓訂單達到創紀錄的513 億美元。

Net sales were better than expected at $7.2 billion, up 6.5% year-over-year.

淨銷售額優於預期，為 72 億美元，年增 6.5%。

Not on the page, but cash flow from operations was also better than expected at an outflow of $98 million in the first quarter or a $313 million improvement versus the prior year, a solid start to 2020.

雖然頁面上沒有顯示，但營運現金流也好於預期，第一季流出 9,800 萬美元，比前一年增加 3.13 億美元，為 2020 年開了個好頭。

With that, I'll hand it over to Neil to talk through the segment results.

接下來，我將把它交給尼爾來討論分段結果。

And then I'll come back and share a bit about how we see the current environment.

然後我會回來分享一些我們如何看待當前環境的資訊。

Thank you, Toby.

謝謝你，托比。

So starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 7. Sales were $6.4 billion in the quarter, down 1% on an organic basis.

首先是幻燈片 7 上的柯林斯航空航太公司。該季度銷售額為 64 億美元，有機下降 1%。

Commercial OEM sales were down 12%, driven by the 737 MAX grounding and anticipated declines in legacy programs partially offset by new program growth driven by the A320neo, 787 and A220.

由於 737 MAX 停飛以及傳統項目的預期下降，商業 OEM 銷售額下降了 12%，而 A320neo、787 和 A220 推動的新項目成長部分抵消了這一下降。

Commercial aftermarket sales grew 3% driven by provisioning, which was up mid-teens, and parts and repair, which was up mid-single digit, partially offset by high single-digit declines in modifications and upgrades driven by anticipated lower ADS-B mandate volume.

商業售後市場銷售額增長了3%，這主要得益於供應（增幅為10% 左右）以及零件和維修（增幅為中個位數），但部分被預期ADS-B 授權降低導致的改裝和升級大幅個位數下降所抵消體積。

Military sales were up 10%, led by higher F-35 volume.

在 F-35 銷量增加的帶動下，軍品銷量增加了 10%。

And we also saw continued solid performance in our mission systems, communications, navigation and guidance solutions and ISR businesses.

我們還看到我們的任務系統、通訊、導航和導引解決方案以及 ISR 業務持續保持穩健的表現。

Operating profit of $1.1 billion was up 3% from prior year with 80 basis points of margin expansion, drop-through on higher military and commercial aftermarket sales and continued synergy capture of an incremental $60 million as well as favorable FX and contract settlements in the quarter partially offset by headwind from lower commercial OEM sales and approximately $40 million in COVID-related charges.

營業利潤為 11 億美元，比上年增長 3%，利潤率擴大了 80 個基點，軍事和商業售後市場銷售額增加，協同效應持續增加 6,000 萬美元，以及本季度有利的外匯和合約結算商業OEM銷售額下降以及約4000 萬美元的新冠肺炎相關費用部分抵消了這一影響。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 8. Sales of $5.4 billion were up 12% on an organic basis.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的普惠公司。銷售額 54 億美元，有機成長 12%。

Commercial OEM sales were up 25%, driven by GTF and PW800 deliveries, which were partially offset by anticipated declines in V2500 production and lower deliveries of other PWC engines in March driven by COVID-19 impacts.

在 GTF 和 PW800 交付量的推動下，商業 OEM 銷售額增長了 25%，但由於 COVID-19 影響，V2500 產量預期下降以及 3 月份其他 PWC 發動機交付量下降，部分抵消了這一增長。

Commercial aftermarket was up 4% in the quarter.

本季商業售後市場成長 4%。

Growth in the GTF aftermarket was offset by a reduction in legacy shop visit inductions.

GTF 售後市場的成長被傳統商店參觀量的減少所抵消。

Pratt & Whitney Canada aftermarket saw growth from higher shop visit content and a customer contract closeout partially offset by lower shop visits.

普拉特惠特尼加拿大售後市場的成長源於較高的商店訪問量和客戶合約結束，但部分被較低的商店訪問量所抵消。

Ramping JSF production continues to drive growth at Pratt's military business.

JSF 產量的增加繼續推動普拉特軍事業務的成長。

Military sales were up 16% on higher aftermarket sales across key platforms and increased F135 production volume.

由於主要平台售後市場銷量的增加以及 F135 產量的增加，軍品銷量成長了 16%。

Adjusted operating profit of $439 million was down 2%.

調整後營業利潤為 4.39 億美元，下降 2%。

Operating profit benefited from drop-through on higher military sales, continued GTF cost reduction, lower E&D and a customer settlement.

營業利潤受益於軍事銷售的增加、GTF 成本的持續降低、E&D 的減少以及客戶結算。

These benefits were more than offset by higher G&A, which was primarily driven by COVID-related reserves of approximately $60 million; FX headwind; and the absence of the Q1 2019 divestiture and licensing agreement for approximately $30 million.

這些收益被較高的一般管理費用所抵消，這主要是由約 6000 萬美元的新冠病毒相關準備金推動的；外匯逆風；且沒有 2019 年第一季約 3000 萬美元的剝離和許可協議。

Commercial aftermarket operating profit was flat, driven by a customer contract that was offset by GTF and legacy sales mix.

商業售後市場營業利潤持平，這是由客戶合約推動的，但被 GTF 和傳統銷售組合所抵消。

Turning now to Slide 9. I'll talk through the legacy Raytheon businesses Q1 results.

現在轉向投影片 9。我將討論雷神公司傳統業務第一季的業績。

As Toby mentioned, while these results are not included in Raytheon Technologies' first quarter reported results, we thought it would be helpful to share how these businesses performed.

正如托比所提到的，雖然這些結果沒有包含在雷神科技公司第一季報告的結果中，但我們認為分享這些業務的表現會有所幫助。

You will find a reconciliation from the former legacy Raytheon segments to our pro forma new segments in the appendix.

您將在附錄中找到從以前的雷神公司部分到我們預計的新部分的調節表。

So with that said, starting with RIS.

話雖如此，從 RIS 開始。

For Q1, RIS sales were $3.6 billion, operating profit was $379 million and ROS was 10.6%.

第一季度，RIS 銷售額為 36 億美元，營業利潤為 3.79 億美元，ROS 為 10.6%。

Of note, RIS also booked approximately $350 million on the GPS next-generation operational control system or GPS OCX program.

值得注意的是，RIS 也為 GPS 新一代操作控制系統或 GPS OCX 專案預訂了約 3.5 億美元。

And it's worth mentioning the former Raytheon SAS business grew sales 15% driven by higher volume across numerous programs.

值得一提的是，由於眾多項目的銷量增加，前 Raytheon SAS 業務的銷售額增長了 15%。

Additionally, the former Raytheon IIS business saw operating profit declined $45 million, primarily due to $34 million of gains from the first quarter of 2019 that did not repeat.

此外，前雷神公司 IIS 業務的營業利潤下降了 4,500 萬美元，主要是由於 2019 年第一季的 3,400 萬美元收益沒有重複。

Moving to RMD.

轉向 RMD。

Q1 sales were $3.9 billion, operating profit was $573 million, and ROS was 14.9%.

第一季銷售額為 39 億美元，營業利潤為 5.73 億美元，ROS 為 14.9%。

At legacy missiles, operating profit was up $49 million or 26% driven by higher net program efficiencies.

在傳統飛彈領域，由於專案淨效率提高，營業利潤成長了 4,900 萬美元，即 26%。

At legacy IDS, operating profit was up $79 million or 31% driven by higher net program efficiencies, including $35 million from a contract settlement.

在傳統 IDS，由於淨計劃效率提高，營業利潤增長了 7,900 萬美元，即 31%，其中包括來自合約結算的 3,500 萬美元。

In addition to what Greg mentioned, booking highlights in the segment during the quarter also included approximately $500 million to provide advanced Patriot air and missile defense capability for the Kingdom of Bahrain.

除了格雷格提到的之外，本季該領域的預訂亮點還包括約 5 億美元，用於為巴林王國提供先進的愛國者防空和飛彈防禦能力。

With that, I'll hand it back to Toby to provide an update on the current environment.

這樣，我會將其交還給 Toby，以提供當前環境的更新資訊。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

I'm on Slide 10 now.

我現在在幻燈片 10 上。

As Greg mentioned, we are clearly in uncertain times particularly for our industry.

正如格雷格所提到的，我們顯然正處於不確定的時期，尤其是對於我們的行業而言。

That said, not everything about our future is unknown.

也就是說，我們的未來並非一切都是未知的。

There are several factors we know or are getting comfortable with right now.

我們現在知道或正在適應幾個因素。

And there are certainly a number of elements that we're monitoring closely.

當然，我們正在密切監控許多因素。

Let me take you through how we see it today.

讓我帶您了解我們今天的看法。

First, for some knowns that should serve as tailwinds.

首先，對於一些已知的東西來說，這應該成為順風車。

We see our defense businesses on solid ground.

我們看到我們的國防業務有著堅實的基礎。

We have record backlog and visibility to grow our defense businesses over the next few years.

我們擁有創紀錄的積壓訂單和可見度，可以在未來幾年發展我們的國防業務。

Our franchises are well aligned with the National Defense Strategy, which should shape future budgets.

我們的特許經營權與國防戰略非常一致，這應該會影響未來的預算。

And we see demand for our advanced solutions internationally.

我們看到國際上對我們先進解決方案的需求。

We have a robust synergy playbook that will utilize to create additional lift from Rockwell Collins acquisition synergies as well as generating the Raytheon Technologies synergies.

我們擁有強大的協同效應手冊，將利用羅克韋爾柯林斯收購協同效應創造額外的提升，並產生雷神技術公司的協同效應。

And as you heard from Greg, we are taking aggressive cost reduction and cash conservation actions in response to the current environment.

正如您從格雷格那裡聽到的，我們正在採取積極的成本削減和現金節約行動來應對當前的環境。

Now as I mentioned, we are optimistic about our defense business growth, and our expectations are largely consistent with when we began the year.

正如我所提到的，我們對國防業務的成長持樂觀態度，我們的預期與年初基本一致。

We are monitoring our defense supply chain and any potential disruptions that can occur.

我們正在監控我們的國防供應鏈以及可能發生的任何潛在中斷。

However, we have good visibility into the demand side of our defense business and as a result, have provided a detailed outlook for our RIS and RMD segments in the appendix.

然而，我們對國防業務的需求方面有很好的了解，因此，我們在附錄中提供了 RIS 和 RMD 部門的詳細前景。

At a high level, for RIS and RMD, we have guided to 6% to 8% sales growth versus 2019 and discussed the ability to improve operating income.

在較高層面上，我們預期 RIS 和 RMD 的銷售額將較 2019 年成長 6% 至 8%，並討論了提高營業收入的能力。

As a result of the COVID-19 impacts, we are lowering RIS and RMD sales by $200 million or a little less than 1%.

由於 COVID-19 的影響，我們將 RIS 和 RMD 銷售額減少 2 億美元，即略低於 1%。

Operationally and on a full year 2020 basis and for the remaining period of Q2 to Q4 2020, we see no changes to the previous defense outlook provided for legacy Raytheon businesses other than the COVID-19 impacts.

從營運情況來看，2020 年全年以及 2020 年第二季至第四季的剩餘時間內，除了 COVID-19 的影響外，我們認為先前為雷神公司傳統業務提供的國防前景沒有任何變化。

Note, there are a few changes to the way we will report our numbers for RIS and RMD driven entirely by the merger and related accounting, including the stub period, EAC resets and purchase accounting impacts.

請注意，我們報告 RIS 和 RMD 數據的方式發生了一些變化，這完全是由合併和相關會計驅動的，包括存根期、EAC 重置和購買會計影響。

You'll note that the appendix slide highlights the expected effects these items will have on these segments.

您會注意到，附錄投影片突顯了這些項目對這些細分市場的預期影響。

It is important to note, the EAC reset is merely a matter of timing and not a permanent loss of profit as the profit improvements will now be recognized over the remaining life of each program.

值得注意的是，EAC 重置只是一個時間問題，而不是永久性的利潤損失，因為利潤的改善現在將在每個計劃的剩餘生命週期中得到認可。

We are confident in our defense growth in the future.

我們對未來的國防發展充滿信心。

And although we are not providing an outlook for 2021, what I can say is that we are in a strong position to continue to grow these businesses and will not see the merger-related impacts on the accounting beyond next year.

儘管我們沒有提供 2021 年的展望，但我可以說的是，我們處於繼續發展這些業務的有利地位，並且明年以後不會看到與合併相關的會計影響。

And finally, as you know, defense made up a little less than 30% of sales within Collins and Pratt in 2019.

最後，如您所知，2019 年柯林斯和普拉特的國防業務佔銷售額的比例略低於 30%。

We continue to expect Collins and Pratt's defense sales to grow mid-single-digit organically in 2020 as we discussed at the beginning of the year.

正如我們在年初討論的那樣，我們繼續預計柯林斯和普拉特的國防銷售將在 2020 年實現中個位數有機成長。

Now for what we're monitoring.

現在我們正在監視什麼。

As we've discussed, the COVID-19 pandemic clearly has and will continue to impact our business in the aerospace sector as a whole.

正如我們所討論的，COVID-19 大流行顯然已經並將繼續影響我們整個航空航太領域的業務。

The year can unfold in multiple ways but will certainly result in significant headwinds for our commercial aerospace segments.

這一年可能會以多種方式展開，但肯定會為我們的商業航空航太領域帶來重大阻力。

We are monitoring several factors that will have a direct impact on the commercial aerospace market, including OEM production levels, airline financial condition, fleet groundings, revenue passenger miles and aftermarket data.

我們正在監控對商業航空航太市場產生直接影響的幾個因素，包括原始設備製造商生產水準、航空公司財務狀況、機隊停飛、收入乘客里程和售後數據。

A few comments on these factors.

對這些因素的一些評論。

We know that OEM production rates have been significantly reduced.

我們知道 OEM 生產率已顯著降低。

Aircraft fleets around the globe are parked, and IATA's latest forecast estimates 2020 RPMs will be down 48% year-over-year, all of which will have a significant impact on the commercial market in our segments and the commercial aerospace industry as a whole, including our commercial supply chain.

全球機隊停飛，IATA最新預測預計2020年RPM將年減48%，所有這些都將對我們細分市場的商業市場以及整個商業航空航太業產生重大影響，包括我們的商業供應鏈。

While we have and will continue to see disruptions in the supply chain, we are working very closely with our suppliers to ensure they remain financially stable and are able to meet our production requirements.

雖然我們已經並將繼續看到供應鏈中斷，但我們正在與供應商密切合作，以確保他們保持財務穩定並能夠滿足我們的生產要求。

So let's discuss Collins.

那我們來討論一下柯林斯。

While I can't provide an overall view on commercial OE or aftermarket sales and operating profit at this time due to the evolving market conditions, here's what I can tell you.

雖然由於不斷變化的市場狀況，我目前無法提供有關商業原配設備或售後市場銷售和營業利潤的總體看法，但我可以告訴您以下內容。

We would expect a sharp deceleration in both OE and aftermarket.

我們預計原廠設備和售後市場都會急劇減速。

On the sales side, we expect OE sales to decline in line with OEM production and airline delivery schedules.

在銷售方面，我們預計原廠備件銷售將隨著原始設備製造商生產和航空公司交付時間表的下降而下降。

Aftermarket is equally as difficult to quantify, but we generally expect sales declines to be in line with RPM declines with a prolonged rebound that does not recover to 2019 levels within 2020.

售後市場同樣難以量化，但我們普遍預期銷售下降將與轉速下降一致，並出現長期反彈，但不會在 2020 年恢復到 2019 年的水平。

We also continue to expect a point of headwind from lower ADS-B sales.

我們也繼續預期 ADS-B 銷售下降將帶來阻力。

Moving on to Pratt.

繼續前往普拉特。

As with Collins, we expect a sharp deceleration in both OE and aftermarket.

與柯林斯一樣，我們預計原廠設備和售後市場都會急劇減速。

For Pratt OE, we expect our sales to decline in line with our main OEM customers, which is primarily Airbus for our large commercial engines.

對於普拉特原始設備製造商，我們預計我們的銷售額將隨著我們的主要 OEM 客戶（主要是為我們的大型商用引擎提供服務的空中巴士）而下降。

On the aftermarket side, GTF overhaul activity will continue as we upgrade engines to the latest configuration.

在售後市場方面，隨著我們將引擎升級到最新配置，GTF 檢修活動將繼續進行。

However, legacy shop visits are now likely to be down 50% or more over the prior year.

然而，傳統商店的訪問量現在可能比前一年減少 50% 或更多。

As you're aware, Pratt & Whitney Canada was approximately 25% of Pratt's total sales in 2019.

如您所知，普惠加拿大公司 2019 年銷售額約佔普惠總銷售額的 25%。

Pratt Canada will see a significant sales impact albeit not as large as the expected decline in the large commercial engine business.

普拉特加拿大公司的銷售將受到重大影響，儘管沒有大型商用引擎業務預期的下降那麼大。

With respect to free cash flow, we expect to generate positive free cash flow for the year, which will be driven by our defense businesses.

就自由現金流而言，我們預計今年將產生正的自由現金流，這將由我們的國防業務推動。

Given the range of outcomes that could materialize within our commercial aero businesses, we would expect these businesses to be about breakeven for the year.

考慮到我們的商業航空業務可能實現的一系列成果，我們預計這些業務今年將實現盈虧平衡。

And that's despite taking $4 billion of cash actions this year as we see headwinds at the commercial aero businesses largely due to working capital impacts as we work to ensure the health of our supply base and address under absorption.

儘管今年我們採取了 40 億美元的現金行動，但我們看到商業航空業務面臨的阻力主要是由於營運資金的影響，因為我們努力確保我們的供應基地的健康並解決吸收問題。

The strong operating results in Q1 highlights the performance capability of Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace and is indicative of the potential and growth the segments will see again as we rebound from the temporary market impacts resulting from COVID-19.

第一季強勁的經營業績凸顯了普惠公司和柯林斯航空航太公司的業績能力，並表明隨著我們從 COVID-19 造成的暫時市場影響中反彈，這些部門將再次看到潛力和成長。

But for now, there are clearly a number of moving pieces with more unknowns than knowns.

但就目前而言，顯然有許多未知因素比已知因素更多。

We will continue to provide updates as the situation develops and we have a clear understanding of the pandemic's effect on our operations.

隨著情況的發展，我們將繼續提供最新信息，我們清楚地了解了這場流行病對我們營運的影響。

As for some Q2 color, as we have already said, we expect sales to be down significantly at Pratt and Collins.

至於第二季的某些顏色，正如我們已經說過的，我們預計普拉特和柯林斯的銷售將大幅下降。

We see Q2 operating profit at Pratt to be a loss and operating profit at Collins to be approximately breakeven.

我們認為普拉特第二季度的營業利潤將出現虧損，柯林斯的營業利潤將接近損益兩平。

And for RIS and RMD operationally, it's business as usual but for the previously mentioned EAC reset and stub period that will impact the results.

對於 RIS 和 RMD 的操作來說，一切照舊，但前面提到的 EAC 重置和存根週期將影響結果。

Finally, we expect adjusted EPS in Q2 to be positive.

最後，我們預期第二季調整後每股盈餘將為正值。

As it relates to the full year outlook, we will reevaluate our ability to provide our traditional sales, EPS and cash outlook after Q2.

由於它與全年展望相關，我們將重新評估我們在第二季後提供傳統銷售額、每股盈餘和現金前景的能力。

Turning to Slide 11.

轉到投影片 11。

We have provided you with some information to help with your modeling.

我們為您提供了一些資訊來幫助您進行建模。

You will see our current thoughts on Q2 through Q4 ranges for these line items.

您將看到我們目前對這些訂單項目的第二季到第四季度範圍的想法。

Of note, CapEx for Collins and Pratt will now be over $800 million lower than we expected at the start of the year to help mitigate COVID-19 pressures.

值得注意的是，柯林斯和普拉特的資本支出現在將比我們年初的預期低 8 億美元以上，以幫助緩解 COVID-19 壓力。

Additionally, as far as corporate expenses for Q2 to Q4, approximately $400 million will be allocated to Pratt and Collins, leaving about $250 million to $300 million of residual corporate costs, which primarily relate to LTAMDS, a corporate project for the company.

此外，就第二季至第四季的企業支出而言，約4 億美元將分配給Pratt 和Collins，留下約2.5 億至3 億美元的剩餘企業成本，這些成本主要與該公司的企業項目LTAMDS 有關。

Lastly, we are making a few changes to the way we measure our results and therefore speak to them externally.

最後，我們正在對衡量結果的方式做出一些改變，從而與外部進行交流。

We will continue to discuss our sales and earnings on an adjusted basis, consistent with UTC's legacy approach of excluding significant and nonrecurring items with a few changes.

我們將繼續在調整後的基礎上討論我們的銷售額和收益，這與 UTC 排除重大和非經常性項目並進行一些更改的傳統方法一致。

Given the considerable acquisition and merger activity, we will be reporting our segment profit, adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS, excluding the noncash net expense associated with amortization, PP&E step-up and parity adjustments.

鑑於大量的收購和合併活動，我們將報告我們的部門利潤、調整後收益和調整後每股收益，不包括與攤銷、財產、設備和設備費用增加和平價調整相關的非現金淨費用。

We believe this will provide investors with a better understanding of our results in relation to cash performance.

我們相信這將使投資者更了解我們與現金表現相關的業績。

With respect to our segment operating profit, we will now be allocating the majority of corporate costs to our segments.

就我們的部門營業利潤而言，我們現在將大部分公司成本分配給我們的部門。

And finally, we'll reflect the FAS/CAS pension adjustment at RIS and RMD restructuring below segment operating profit in our statement of operations.

最後，我們將在我們的營運報表中將 RIS 和 RMD 重組的 FAS/CAS 退休金調整反映在部門營運利潤下方。

Okay.

好的。

With that, I'll hand it back over to Greg.

這樣，我會把它還給格雷格。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Toby.

謝謝，托比。

I know that's a lot to digest, a lot going on.

我知道有很多事情需要消化，還有很多事情要做。

Let me just maybe summarize it in my own way.

讓我以我自己的方式總結一下。

I think everybody needs to step back and take a deep breath.

我認為每個人都需要退後一步，深呼吸。

I know a lot of change, a lot of uncertainty.

我知道有很多變化，很多不確定性。

At the end of the day, the reason Raytheon and UTC came together were 3 simple reasons: It was technology, it was talent and it was balance.

歸根結底，雷神公司和 UTC 走到一起的原因有 3 個簡單的原因：技術、人才和平衡。

The technology is self-evident.

這項技術是不言而喻的。

And I would tell you the talent is also self-evident in the fact that we've got great leaders in our business from Wes to Roy to Steve to Chris.

我想告訴你，人才也是不言而喻的，因為我們的業務擁有從韋斯到羅伊到史蒂夫到克里斯的偉大領導者。

Experienced leaders who know how to work in this challenging environment.

經驗豐富的領導者知道如何在這個充滿挑戰的環境中工作。

We'll do the right thing, as we always would.

我們會一如既往地做正確的事。

We've also got a great corporate staff.

我們也擁有優秀的企業員工。

About half of it from Raytheon, half of it from legacy UTC.

大約一半來自雷神公司，一半來自傳統的 UTC。

And again, we've lived through these crises before.

再說一遍，我們以前經歷過這些危機。

And we will support the businesses and some of the very difficult things that they're going to have to do.

我們將支持企業以及他們必須做的一些非常困難的事情。

But at the end of the day, we'll get through this as we always have.

但最終，我們會像往常一樣渡過難關。

As we think about the remainder of 2020, our priorities are pretty clear.

當我們思考 2020 年剩餘時間時，我們的優先事項非常明確。

First of all, it's supporting our employees, keeping them healthy and safe, supporting our customers and importantly, our suppliers, also delivering technology and product innovation for our customers.

首先，它支持我們的員工，確保他們的健康和安全，支持我們的客戶，重要的是我們的供應商，也為我們的客戶提供技術和產品創新。

And we've got a lot of work to do on executing on the merger integration and delivering synergies, but we know how to do this.

我們在執行合併整合和發揮協同效應方面還有很多工作要做，但我們知道如何做到這一點。

Throughout our history, we've weathered a lot of challenges.

縱觀我們的歷史，我們經歷了許多挑戰。

And we'll weather this one and come out stronger on the other side.

我們會度過這一難關，並在另一邊表現得更堅強。

I remain excited about the future of our company.

我對我們公司的未來仍然感到興奮。

And I'm confident that the teams we have in place will drive sustainable long-term value creation that will benefit customers, employees, shareowners and our communities.

我相信，我們現有的團隊將推動可持續的長期價值創造，使客戶、員工、股東和我們的社區受益。

With that, Ashley, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

就這樣，阿什利，讓我們繼續提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from the line of Ron Epstein.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Ron Epstein 的線路。

Thanks for the complete call and all the info.

感謝您的完整通話和所有資訊。

Just maybe starting off with defense because I'm certain you're just going to get bombarded with commercial questions.

也許只是從防禦開始，因為我確信你會受到商業問題的轟炸。

When you think about international defense markets, in particular Saudi and what's going on with oil prices, and how important Saudi is to the legacy defense businesses at Raytheon, how should we think about that?

當您考慮國際國防市場，特別是沙烏地阿拉伯以及石油價格的變化，以及沙烏地阿拉伯對雷神公司傳統國防業務的重要性時，我們應該如何思考？

And is there any risk to those contracts?

這些合約有風險嗎？

And is there any risk to the Middle East, particularly Saudi business?

中東，特別是沙烏地阿拉伯的業務是否有風險？

Ron, look, there's always uncertainty.

榮恩，聽著，總是存在著不確定性。

When oil is $20 or $30 a barrel, obviously, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is challenged, as are most of the Middle East customers during this time.

當石油價格為每桶 20 或 30 美元時，沙烏地阿拉伯王國顯然會面臨挑戰，這段時間的大多數中東客戶也面臨挑戰。

At the same time, I don't think peace is breaking out anytime soon in the Middle East.

同時，我認為中東不會很快出現和平。

And providing a solid defense posture to our customers over there remains a priority both for the U.S. government as well as for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and all of our other customers over there.

為我們在那裡的客戶提供堅實的防禦態勢仍然是美國政府、沙烏地阿拉伯王國以及我們在那裡的所有其他客戶的首要任務。

So look, I'm -- so it's about 30% of legacy Raytheon business was international and I think it is not all Middle East.

所以，雷神公司大約 30% 的傳統業務是國際業務，我認為這並非全是中東業務。

It's obviously a big piece in the U.K. we support, we've got the Patriot system in Poland.

這顯然是我們支持的英國的一個重要組成部分，我們在波蘭擁有愛國者係統。

We've got big operations in Australia.

我們在澳洲有大型業務。

It's not just a Middle Eastern business.

這不僅僅是中東企業。

It's an important element of it, but it's not the whole thing.

這是其中一個重要的因素，但並不是全部。

So, so far, we have continued to see good cash come in from the Middle Eastern customers during the first quarter, surprisingly even with oil out there.

因此，到目前為止，我們在第一季繼續看到來自中東客戶的大量現金，令人驚訝的是，即使那裡有石油。

They need the equipment, they want the equipment and we need to help them defend themselves.

他們需要設備，他們想要設備，我們需要幫助他們保護自己。

Toby, anything you want to add?

托比，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think the only thing I'd add, Ron, is we're looking at a big award here in Q2 -- late Q2, maybe early Q3.

羅恩，我想我唯一要補充的是，我們在第二季將獲得一個大獎項——第二季末，也許第三季初。

The production for the TPY-2 system for KSA, right, that's on track and it falls in line with what Greg said.

KSA 的 TPY-2 系統的生產，對吧，正在按計劃進行，這與格雷格所說的相符。

The threat environment hasn't changed.

威脅環境沒有改變。

The need for our equipment is still there.

對我們設備的需求仍然存在。

And then if you remember back, it was -- I'm going to be off 3, 4 years ago, right, when oil was down and same logical type of questions, and we came out of that strong with no implications.

然後，如果你還記得的話，那就是——我將在三、四年前離開，對吧，當時石油價格下跌，出現了同樣邏輯類型的問題，我們走出了困境，沒有任何影響。

And that's how we see this playing out as well.

我們也是這樣看待這種情況的。

Your next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu.

您的下一個問題來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Greg, you're right.

格雷格，你是對的。

That's a lot to digest.

有很多東西需要消化。

I realize you weren't guiding, but you gave us a few pieces to pull together.

我知道你沒有提供指導，但你給了我們一些可以整合的東西。

So I think you said UTX aero free cash flow was breakeven.

所以我想你說 UTX 航空自由現金流是損益兩平的。

And if we assume Raytheon free cash flow is $3.5 billion as a baseline because that's what it was last year and UTX generates free cash flow of about $1 billion stand-alone, does that provide a framework for about $4.5 billion combined as the bottoming of free cash flow in 2020?

如果我們假設雷神公司的自由現金流為35 億美元作為基準，因為這是去年的情況，而UTX 單獨產生的自由現金流約為10 億美元，那麼這是否為作為自由現金流底部的約45 億美元的總和提供了一個框架？2020 年現金流？

Or are there other items like tax pension and working capital to think about?

或者還有其他項目需要考慮，例如稅收退休金和營運資金？

Yes.

是的。

Sheila, I think that's probably a little aggressive from the different modeling and the scenarios that we're coming up with here right now.

希拉，我認為從我們現在提出的不同模型和場景來看，這可能有點激進。

I think what you got to take into account is with these type of volume drops that we're seeing and how they're hitting us all at once, there are significant absorption impacts that we're dealing with and trying to, at least, start to mitigate with the cost and cash actions that Greg mentioned in his opening comments.

我認為你必須考慮的是我們所看到的這些類型的交易量下降以及它們如何同時打擊我們所有人，我們正在處理並試圖至少，有顯著的吸收影響，開始透過格雷格在開場白中提到的成本和現金行動來緩解。

And the drop-through margin on this type of volume loss, especially when you look at the entire mix of the business between heavy aftermarket at Pratt, about 50% of their business, about 35% at Collins is aftermarket.

這種銷售損失帶來的利潤率下降，尤其是當你看看普拉特的大型售後市場之間的整個業務組合時，他們大約 50% 的業務，柯林斯大約 35% 是售後市場。

When you piece that all together, including the other parts, we're talking about north of 50% type of drop-through.

當你將所有這些（包括其他部分）拼湊在一起時，我們討論的是 50% 以上的直通型。

Combined with managing inventory levels with suppliers, right, and ensuring the health of the supply chain, working with customer request on extended terms, we see a little bit more headwind than I think you're thinking there.

與管理供應商的庫存水準結合，確保供應鏈的健康，長期滿足客戶的要求，我們看到的阻力比我想像的要多一些。

Yes.

是的。

Sheila, I think the thing to keep in mind is really working capital.

希拉，我認為要記住的實際上是營運資金。

We've got a lot of inventory.

我們有大量庫存。

Typically, as you know, on the commercial aero side, lead times are somewhere between 12 and 18 months.

如您所知，通常情況下，在商業航空方面，交貨時間在 12 到 18 個月之間。

So even as Boeing and Airbus reduced production schedules, we were not going to be able to take out all of the working capital associated with that.

因此，即使波音和空中巴士減少了生產計劃，我們也無法拿出與之相關的所有營運資金。

We've also assumed, I would tell you, some slower payments from some of our customers, which will put pressure on cash.

我想告訴你，我們也假設一些客戶的付款速度較慢，這將對現金造成壓力。

So with all that, I think your $4.5 billion is optimistic, I would say.

綜上所述，我認為 45 億美元是樂觀的。

It'll be a decent year.

這將會是美好的一年。

We'll be able to fund the dividend, but I wouldn't get too much above that.

我們將能夠為股息提供資金，但我不會得到比這更多的錢。

Your next question comes from Carter Copeland.

你的下一個問題來自卡特·科普蘭。

Greg, I wondered if you could just kind of give us a little bit more specificity and help map to the $2 billion in cost out.

Greg，我想知道您能否給我們更多具體信息，並幫助我們確定 20 億美元的成本支出。

From what we've heard from a lot of other folks, it seems like your production plan now is probably 30%, 40% down on OE, 50%, 60% down on aftermarket.

從我們從許多其他人那裡聽到的情況來看，你們現在的生產計劃可能是原廠生產計劃減少了 30%、40%，售後市場減少了 50%、60%。

Military is still holding in.

軍方仍在堅守。

Volumes that are down, I don't know, call it, 40% on the year or something like that.

我不知道，成交量下降了，可以稱之為年內下降 40% 之類的。

Is that about how you're thinking about production?

這就是你對製作的看法嗎？

And how do you think about the cost structure and how that $2 billion maps to that in terms of what's a run rate saving versus a onetime or somewhat temporary cost out?

您如何看待成本結構，以及這 20 億美元如何與運行率節省與一次性或暫時的成本支出相對應？

Any color there would be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, carter.

是的，卡特。

So look, there's obviously, as you said, a lot of moving pieces here.

所以看，正如你所說，這裡顯然有很多移動的部分。

I would think about it more broadly like this.

我會像這樣更廣泛地思考它。

Think about commercial OE, probably down about 50% for the rest of the year.

想想商業原配設備，今年剩餘時間可能會下降 50% 左右。

That's in line with the 48% reduction in traffic that IATA forecasts.

這與 IATA 預測的交通量減少 48% 一致。

Now it will vary by platform, as you look at 737 versus A320.

現在，它會因平台而異，就像 737 與 A320 一樣。

So we're trying to match OEM production with what the customers, Boeing and Airbus and Bombardier and others, are telling us today.

因此，我們正在努力將 OEM 生產與波音、空中巴士、龐巴迪等客戶今天告訴我們的資訊相匹配。

But roughly speaking, you can think about OE down about 50% for the rest of the year and aftermarket down probably in that same range.

但粗略地說，您可以認為今年剩餘時間原廠設備下降了約 50%，售後市場也可能在同一範圍內下降。

So those are our big numbers.

這些都是我們的大數字。

Now what are we going to do about it?

現在我們該怎麼辦呢？

So Chris and Steve on the commercial side have identified a number of actions.

因此，商業方面的克里斯和史蒂夫已經確定了一些行動。

The biggest, of course, is probably a reduction in E&D, about $450 million.

當然，最大的可能是 E&D 的減少，約 4.5 億美元。

Now it seems like a lot of money.

現在看來是很多錢了。

We spend about $2.5 billion a year on the commercial aero side on E&D, so it's roughly a 20% reduction in E&D.

我們每年在商用航空方面的 E&D 支出約為 25 億美元，因此 E&D 大約減少了 20%。

About $300 million of that is going to come out of Pratt.

其中約 3 億美元將來自普拉特。

About $150 million of that comes out of Collins.

其中約 1.5 億美元來自柯林斯。

So just to give you an idea.

所以只是給你一個想法。

Of course, also, we have stopped hiring.

當然，我們也停止了招募。

We've put a hiring freeze in place.

我們已經凍結了招募。

We've deferred merits.

我們已經延後了功績。

We're furloughing folks, both at the corporate office and across the commercial businesses.

我們正在讓公司辦公室和商業企業的員工休假。

Also, we've furloughed people in the factories.

此外，我們也讓工廠裡的員工暫時休假。

And I expect there will be further reductions as we sort through all of these volumes.

我預計，當我們對所有這些卷進行分類時，將會進一步減少。

The key is we don't want to cut the talent so deep that when the recovery happens, we don't have the right people.

關鍵是我們不想削減人才太深，以至於當經濟復甦時，我們就沒有合適的人了。

So we're trying to be judicious.

所以我們努力保持明智。

We're trying to keep as many jobs as we can.

我們正在努力保住盡可能多的工作。

And to that end, the legacy Raytheon businesses have 2,000 openings today for folks, and we are actively working to try and take engineering talent and other talent that we've got in the legacy UTX business and move those folks over to programs on the Raytheon side.

為此，雷神公司的傳統業務今天為員工提供了2,000 個職位空缺，我們正在積極努力，嘗試吸收我們在傳統UTX 業務中擁有的工程人才和其他人才，並將這些人員轉移到雷神公司的專案中。邊。

So there's a lot of pain to come yet, a lot of very tough decisions ahead of us in terms of production volumes.

因此，未來還有很多痛苦，我們在產量方面需要做出很多非常艱難的決定。

But just generally speaking, think about 50 and 50, and you're going to be in the ballpark.

但一般來說，想想 50 和 50，你就差不多了。

Your next question comes from Robert Stallard.

你的下一個問題來自羅伯特·斯塔拉德。

A quick question on the Boeing 737 MAX.

關於波音 737 MAX 的一個簡單問題。

Are you guys actually shipping any product at the moment?

你們現在真的在運送任何產品嗎？

And as you look forward from here, are you aligning your cost base and capacity in line with what Boeing is saying about production rates heading back over 30 next year?

當您展望未來時，您是否正在調整您的成本基礎和產能，以符合波音公司所說的明年生產力回落 30 多的說法？

So we continue to support Boeing in the return to service for the 737 MAX.

因此，我們將繼續支援波音 737 MAX 恢復服務。

The folks out in Cedar Rapids have been doing software turns and continuing to work with Boeing to make sure that we've got a certification standard that FAA will approve here.

錫達拉皮茲的人們一直在進行軟體改造，並繼續與波音公司合作，以確保我們擁有美國聯邦航空局將在這裡批准的認證標準。

Right now, I don't believe we're shipping anything today to Boeing.

現在，我不相信我們今天會向波音運送任何東西。

We are aligning with their plans to ramp up production later this year and into next year.

我們正在與他們的計劃保持一致，在今年晚些時候和明年提高產量。

Again, the lead time on that, roughly 12 to 18 months.

同樣，交貨時間約為 12 至 18 個月。

So we've been on pause here for a couple of months of -- while Boeing has paused production.

因此，我們已經暫停了幾個月——而波音公司也暫停了生產。

We'll ramp up as they ramp back up.

當他們恢復時，我們也會增加。

I think they've probably got plenty of inventory today that they're going to need to work through.

我認為他們今天可能有大量的庫存需要處理。

So we're trying to match our ERP demand with what Boeing is out there forecasting.

因此，我們正在努力將我們的 ERP 需求與波音公司的預測相匹配。

But right now, we're -- I think we're pretty well in lockstep across all the platforms, whether it's 787 or 737s.

但現在，我認為我們在所有平台上都步調一致，無論是 787 還是 737。

Your next question comes from Myles Walton.

你的下一個問題來自邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

Greg, I guess timing is everything.

格雷格，我想時機就是一切。

I definitely got -- first, a clarification and a question.

我確實得到了——首先，一個澄清和一個問題。

So Toby, the clarification.

托比，澄清一下。

On reported margins of the Raytheon businesses as they relate to EAC, I think you said something to the effect of -- the effect would be gone after '21.

關於與 EAC 相關的雷神公司業務的報告利潤率，我認為您說了一些大意的話——這種影響將在 21 年後消失。

So just can you elaborate on what that -- we should think about as the margins looking from '21, I guess, into '22 on the accounting side?

那麼，您能否詳細說明一下，我們應該考慮從 21 年到 22 年會計的利潤率？

And then the real question, maybe for Greg, is on Pratt.

也許對格雷格來說，真正的問題是普拉特。

In the aftermarket, you could have whole types of fleets retired, accelerated over the next year or so.

在售後市場，您可以讓整個類型的車隊退役，並在未來一年左右加速退役。

How much of Pratt's aftermarket is not V2500 at this point?

目前普拉特的售後市場有多少不是V2500？

So let me -- I'll hit the first one, Myles, on the EACs.

那麼，讓我——邁爾斯，我將在 EAC 上擊中第一個。

The EAC reset to 0% complete.

EAC 重置為完成 0%。

That's not purchase accounting, but it's really reflective of the acquisition accounting around the merger and the go forward, right?

這不是收購會計，但它確實反映了圍繞合併和前進的收購會計，對吧？

So effectively, the merger reflects the to-go part of the programs that Raytheon has.

此次合併有效地反映了雷神公司現有計劃的待完成部分。

We still expect, just to be very clear, the same types of productivity that historically, on an annualized basis, have been close to 200 basis points, 180, 200 basis points of margin.

需要明確的是，我們仍然預計，歷史上以年化計算的同類生產力將接近 200 個基點，利潤率將達到 180、200 個基點。

They're just going to be spread out over the next, call it, 18 to 24 months, given that everything is reset to 0% complete.

鑑於一切都已重置為 0% 完成度，它們將在接下來的 18 到 24 個月內展開。

Post '21, we'd expect margins more in line with what the historical Raytheon business has been delivering, with the same focus on working to improve those and to grow the segment margin contribution from RIS and RMD.

21 年後，我們預期利潤率將與雷神公司歷史業務的表現更加一致，同時專注於改善這些利潤並增加 RIS 和 RMD 的細分市場利潤率貢獻。

So let me try and address the question on Pratt, and again, I'll give you some broad outline.

因此，讓我嘗試解決有關普拉特的問題，並再次向您提供一些大致的概述。

If you think about it, there's really 4 engine families that contribute to the aftermarket.

如果你仔細想想，實際上有 4 個引擎系列為售後市場做出了貢獻。

The JT8D for the old MD-80s and such, which Delta is retiring, don't really have a significant impact at all anymore.

達美航空即將退役的舊 MD-80 等機型的 JT8D 根本不再產生重大影響。

That's all gone years ago.

幾年前這一切都已經過去了。

The biggest obviously is the V2500, as you know, and there's about 7,000 engines that we've sold.

如您所知，最大的顯然是 V2500，我們已售出約 7,000 台引擎。

About 6,000 of those are still in active service.

其中約 6,000 人仍在現役。

You, of course, got the GTF, which isn't really contributing much in terms of aftermarket today in terms of profit.

當然，您擁有 GTF，但就利潤而言，它對當今售後市場的貢獻並不大。

There's sales associated with it.

有與之相關的銷售。

And then, of course, you've got the legacy Pratt 2000, which is on the 757, and you've got the legacy PW4000, which powered some of the first 777s, some A330s, et cetera.

當然，還有 757 上搭載的舊版 Pratt 2000，以及為部分首批 777、部分 A330 等提供動力的舊版 PW4000。

The V accounts for about 50% of the aftermarket today.

目前，V 型汽車約佔售後市場的 50%。

The 2000, 4000 roughly, together, was about 1,000 aircraft out there.

2000 架、4000 架加起來大約有 1000 架飛機。

You're talking maybe 20% or so of the aftermarket for Pratt.

你說的是普拉特售後市場的 20% 左右。

So some of that will go away, some of it naturally.

所以有些會消失，有些會自然消失。

I think as we think about it, those things have been on the decline for the last 10 years.

我認為，正如我們所思考的那樣，這些事情在過去十年中一直在下降。

They will continue to decline.

他們將繼續下降。

We'll see what comes back into service.

我們將看看什麼會重新投入使用。

With fuel prices as low as they are, the need for new aircraft is probably somewhat lessened, and people will probably fly some of the older, less efficient aircraft for a few more years to save on the capital of buying new airplanes, which as -- you'll probably see these things come back into service, although not in the numbers that we saw.

由於燃油價格如此之低，對新飛機的需求可能會有所減少，人們可能會再駕駛一些舊的、效率較低的飛機幾年，以節省購買新飛機的資金，因為 - - 你可能會看到這些東西重新投入使用，儘管數量不是我們看到的。

So that's all contemplated in this reduction that we've been talking about for the aftermarket at Pratt.

因此，這就是我們一直在談論普拉特售後市場的減少的全部內容。

Our next question comes from David Strauss.

我們的下一個問題來自大衛·施特勞斯。

Wanted to ask about what you saw out of the aftermarket in April, maybe splitting it out between Collins and Pratt.

想問您四月在售後市場看到了什麼，也許將其分配給柯林斯和普拉特。

And then Greg, can you comment on the -- what all this does, the lower production rates on E320, what that does to the GTF's loss profile balancing?

然後，Greg，您能否評論一下——這一切會產生什麼影響，E320 的生產率較低，這對 GTF 的損失曲線平衡有何影響？

You'll be delivering fewer engines, but you'll also, I assume, be coming down the learning curve more slowly.

您將交付更少的引擎，但我認為您的學習曲線也會更慢。

So on the GTF, obviously, as everybody knows, we lose money every time we ship an engine.

因此，顯然，眾所周知，在 GTF 上，我們每次運送引擎都會賠錢。

And so there's actually good news from the lower production on the GTF.

因此，GTF 產量下降其實是個好消息。

That is offset somewhat by the lack of absorption.

這在一定程度上被缺乏吸收所抵消。

So all of the negative engine margin that we would typically see is not all going to flow to the bottom line.

因此，我們通常看到的所有負發動機利潤並不都會流入利潤。

You've got lack of absorption.

你的吸收能力不夠。

And importantly, you're coming down the learning curve.

重要的是，你正在走下學習曲線。

You're taking 5% to 10% of the cost out every year.

您每年要節省 5% 到 10% 的成本。

That's going to be slower as volumes go down.

隨著交易量下降，速度會變慢。

You don't have the leverage in the supply chain.

你在供應鏈中沒有影響力。

So overall, you're probably going to get about $100 million of pickup as a result of the lower volumes on GTF.

因此，總體而言，由於 GTF 銷量較低，您可能會獲得約 1 億美元的皮卡收入。

But I think that's a -- it's a relatively modest number because of the absorption impact.

但我認為，由於吸收影響，這是一個相對適中的數字。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

What was the first part of the question?

問題的第一部分是什麼？

Aftermarket in April.

4月份售後。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Aftermarket -- let me just give you 2 data points that I think are indicative of where the aftermarket is going.

售後市場－讓我給你們兩個我認為可以顯示售後市場走向的數據點。

So Pratt typically gets about 1,000 engine inductions a year for the V2500.

因此，Pratt 通常每年為 V2500 進行約 1,000 次引擎感應。

And most of those inductions were right about online.

大多數的歸納都是在網路上進行的。

We were seeing roughly 80 or so a month, January, February, even into March.

我們每個月看到大約 80 個左右，從 1 月、2 月到 3 月。

April, not so good.

四月，不太好。

There was about 20 -- call it, 25 or so engines inducted into the overhaul shop.

大約有 20 台（可以說是 25 台左右）發動機被送入檢修車間。

And so we'll see that revenue impact here in the second quarter because typically, as we repair these engines, they consume spare parts.

因此，我們將在第二季度看到收入的影響，因為通常，當我們修理這些引擎時，它們會消耗備用零件。

We recognize the revenue.

我們確認收入。

That's going to be the -- probably the biggest place where you'll see the impact.

這將是——可能是你能看到影響最大的地方。

On the Collins side, again, a similar number.

在柯林斯方面，同樣有類似的數字。

If you think about repair input, that is the things that come back to our shop around the world.

如果你考慮維修投入，那就是回到我們世界各地商店的東西。

We've got a lot of shops.

我們有很多商店。

Repair input for the month of April is down about 55%.

4月維修投入下降約55%。

Again, this -- we think this is probably as bad as it gets, but it's happened very, very quickly.

再說一次，我們認為這可能是最糟糕的情況，但它發生得非常非常快。

And so hopefully, we'll see a slower recovery.

因此，希望我們能看到較慢的復甦。

I think the best thing -- and you track the flights every day.

我認為最好的事情是——你每天都會追蹤航班。

I get your little note there.

我在那裡收到你的小紙條。

that's appreciated.

非常感謝。

But the China business actually is coming back, slowly, but it is coming back.

但中國業務實際上正在復甦，雖然緩慢，但正在復甦。

Passengers are coming back and flying in China again.

旅客又開始飛回中國。

And I suspect 2 months down the road, we'll see a slight recovery start.

我懷疑兩個月後，我們會看到輕微的復甦開始。

Maybe it's 3 months or 4 months.

也許是3個月或4個月。

But there is some light at the end of this.

但最終還是有一些曙光。

It's just going to take a little while, but we certainly have already seen the impact in April of the airline slowdown.

這只是需要一段時間，但我們肯定已經看到了 4 月份航空公司放緩的影響。

Your next question comes from Peter Arment.

您的下一個問題來自彼得·阿門特。

Greg, maybe just to ask the question on the V2500 in a different way.

Greg，也許只是想以不同的方式問有關 V2500 的問題。

That 6,000 engines that you have out there, what's -- do you have like an average age?

那裡有 6,000 台發動機，你們的發動機壽命是否達到平均水平？

Are we talking that this is still in the...

我們是說這仍然在...

About 11 years.

大約11年。

Low-teens?

低十幾歲？

11 years.

11 年。

So you still have a long...

那你還有很長的...

Yes.

是的。

So think about it.

所以想一想。

About half of the Vs that are out there have not had its first major overhaul, and the other half have only had once.

大約一半的 V 沒有進行過第一次大修，另一半則只進行過一次。

So if you think about it -- and you know the life cycle of these engines.

所以如果你想想，你就會知道這些引擎的生命週期。

You go through 2, sometimes 3 major overhauls.

您會經歷 2 次、有時 3 次大修。

So we're still in the third inning, I would say, of the life of the V2500 in terms of the aftermarket.

因此，我想說，就售後市場而言，我們仍處於 V2500 生命週期的第三局。

Your next question comes from Seth Seifman.

您的下一個問題來自塞思·塞夫曼。

So I was curious.

所以我很好奇。

I saw in the notes that there was kind of a small intangible impairment at Collins Aerospace.

我在筆記中看到柯林斯航空航天公司存在一些小的無形損失。

I mean how do you think about the risk of further impairments there?

我的意思是，您如何看待那裡進一步受損的風險？

And what are the pieces of the Collins business that you see as most at risk here?

您認為柯林斯業務中哪些部分面臨的風險最大？

How much of the aftermarket is discretionary?

售後市場有多少是可自由支配的？

How do you see things playing out at the Vs business?

您如何看待 Vs 業務的發展？

And are these the places where you see the greatest risk of kind of a more permanent kind of reduction?

您是否認為這些地方出現更持久的減排風險最大？

Well, as you can expect, Seth, we took a hard look at all of the intangible assets as we were closing out first quarter.

好吧，正如你所料，塞斯，我們在第一季結束時仔細審視了所有無形資產。

And we obviously ran a bunch of different sensitivities analysis against these.

顯然，我們針對這些進行了一系列不同的敏感度分析。

There was a small impairment.

有一個小的損傷。

I think it was $40 million at Collins related to some small businesses that they had that were part of the original acquisition of Rockwell Collins.

我認為柯林斯公司的 4000 萬美元與他們擁有的一些小型企業有關，這些企業是最初收購羅克韋爾柯林斯公司的一部分。

But we have looked at all of the other intangibles.

但我們已經研究了所有其他無形資產。

Even with a worst-case scenario on aftermarket for the next 2 years, we did not see any potential for impairment.

即使未來兩年售後市場出現最壞的情況，我們也沒有看到任何潛在的減損。

There was plenty of runway there, additional cash flows, again, assuming a 2- or even a 3-year kind of recovery here.

假設這裡有兩年甚至三年的復甦，那裡有足夠的跑道，額外的現金流。

So I'm not expecting big impairments here.

所以我預計這裡不會出現很大的損害。

Now again, as the world changes, we evaluate this thing every single quarter, but we did a pretty good scrub.

現在，隨著世界的變化，我們每季都會評估這件事，但我們做了相當好的清理工作。

And I guess, Neil, I'd ask you...

我想，尼爾，我會問你......

Yes.

是的。

I would just add to that.

我想補充一點。

I mean when you think about the Rockwell Collins acquisition, which didn't happen that long ago, those were the assets that were marked to fair value most recently.

我的意思是，當你想到不久前發生的羅克韋爾柯林斯收購時，這些資產是最近被標記為公允價值的。

And so they're the ones that are most susceptible.

所以他們是最容易受到影響的人。

But all of this is noncash.

但所有這些都不是現金。

And so we will go through a process.

所以我們會經歷一個過程。

We'll continue to monitor the near term, midterm, long term and update that accordingly.

我們將繼續監控近期、中期、長期並相應更新。

But I agree with everything that you just said there, Greg.

但我同意你剛才所說的一切，格雷格。

Your next question comes from Noah Poponak.

您的下一個問題來自諾亞·波波納克。

Toby, since you sort of spoke to a kind of floor in the 2020 free cash, and I know a lot of your investors are focused on the 2021 target that had been provided, and maybe there's less, sort of abnormal, below-the-segment working capital type of disruption, I wanted to see if I could get you to kind of speak to that.

托比，既然你談到了 2020 年自由現金的下限，我知道你的許多投資者都關注已經提供的 2021 年目標，也許有更少的、有點不正常的、低於-部分營運資金類型的中斷，我想看看是否可以讓您談談這一點。

And I had -- outside of a bottoms-up model, I had kind of top-down just crudely been thinking, in the slides, when you -- from the deal, you had the 3 plus 3 from each business.

我——在自下而上的模型之外，我有一種自上而下的粗略思考，在幻燈片中，當你——從交易中，你從每項業務中獲得了3 加3 的收益。

Pro forma 6 goes to 8. So if I just cut the UTC 3.5, I take out 1.5.

備考 6 變成 8。因此，如果我只削減 UTC 3.5，我就會去掉 1.5。

Or if I look at the S-4 on a levered basis, it was kind of a 4 and 4 split to get to that 8, not quite.

或者，如果我在槓桿基礎上看待 S-4，則需要將 4 和 4 分開才能達到 8，但不完全是這樣。

But -- so if I just took that 4 and cut it in half, I lose 2. So if I just took 1.5 to 2 out of the 8, can I think of 6 to 6.5 as the free cash kind of floor in 2021?

但是，如果我只拿4 塊，然後將其減半，我就會損失2 塊。所以，如果我只拿8 塊中的1.5 到2 塊，我是否可以將6 到6.5 塊視為2021 年的自由現金下限？

Or would you still have some of these working capital disruptions or something else?

或者您還會遇到一些營運資金中斷或其他問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I understand the question, Noah, right.

所以我理解這個問題，諾亞，對吧。

Obviously, we haven't guided to 2020.

顯然，我們還沒有指導2020年。

So we need to figure that out first.

所以我們需要先弄清楚這一點。

Stating the obvious, the 2021 numbers you're referring to, right, certainly didn't consider there would be this type of environment because of the pandemic.

說穿了，你說的2021年的數字，對吧，一定沒有考慮到因為疫情會出現這樣的環境。

And I think the 2 things -- 2 or 3 things to help you a little bit, right?

我認為有兩件事──兩三件事可以幫助你一點，對嗎？

Obviously, we expect defense to continue strong, right?

顯然，我們預計防守會繼續強勁，對吧？

So that should be a tailwind for us going into next year.

因此，這應該是我們明年的順風車。

The variable on the commercial aero side and any of the math that you're referring to is really the shape of the recovery and what type of trajectory we come out of 2020 at Collins and Pratt going into '21.

商業航空方面的變數以及您所指的任何數學實際上是復甦的形狀以及柯林斯和普拉特在 2020 年進入 21 年後的軌跡類型。

And too early to tell at this point, but as you mentioned, some of the figures, right, both businesses have a strong history of delivering strong cash flow.

現在判斷還為時過早，但正如您所提到的，一些數字，對，兩家公司都有提供強勁現金流的悠久歷史。

Just go back to 2019 results and you'll see it there.

只要回到 2019 年的結果，你就會看到它。

So we'll get back there at some point, right?

所以我們會在某個時候回到那裡，對吧？

We're going to -- we're not seeing any change to the underlying fundamentals of the Pratt or the Collins business as evidenced by even the Q1 results.

我們將會－我們不會看到普拉特或柯林斯業務的基本面發生任何變化，甚至第一季的業績也證明了這一點。

It's just too early to speculate more on 2021.

現在對 2021 年進行更多推測還為時過早。

Your next question comes from Robert Spingarn.

您的下一個問題來自羅伯特·斯賓加恩。

Greg, I wanted to follow on the commercial aero questions asked so far because it seems like you see aftermarket leading the recovery over OE.

格雷格，我想跟進到目前為止提出的商業航空問題，因為您似乎看到售後市場領先於原廠的復甦。

And I want to ask you, first, if I'm interpreting that correctly.

首先我想問你我的解釋是否正確。

And second, how you differentiate the recoveries in your commercial aero market versus commercial OE businesses in terms of time line and then how that translates to Collins' and Pratt's recoveries.

其次，如何在時間軸上區分商業航空市場與商業原始設備業務的復甦，以及如何將其轉化為柯林斯和普拉特的復甦。

Well, I guess the way I would think about it is as long as the airlines continue to fly, you're going to see aftermarket demand.

好吧，我想我的想法是，只要航空公司繼續飛行，你就會看到售後市場的需求。

And I think, again, as I mentioned earlier, with fuel prices where they are, we would expect to see aftermarket demand pick up a little bit more quickly than OE demand just because today, you've got 55% of the world fleet parked.

我再次認為，正如我之前提到的，在燃油價格不變的情況下，我們預計售後市場需求的回升速度將比原廠需求增長得快一些，因為今天，全球 55% 的船隊都停泊著。

The good news is if you think about it, really about 40% of that is COVID-related.

好消息是，仔細想想，其中大約 40% 確實與新冠病毒有關。

Back in January, before all this started, you had roughly 15% of the 30,000 fleet parked.

早在一月份，在這一切開始之前，30,000 輛車隊中大約有 15% 處於停車狀態。

So that means that 40% parked is a result of COVID.

這意味著 40% 的停車是由於新冠疫情造成的。

Those planes will come back into service slowly.

這些飛機將慢慢恢復服務。

And I think what you're going to see is those planes will come back before you see a lot of new OEM demand come back.

我認為你將會看到的是，在大量新的 OEM 需求回升之前，這些飛機將會回來。

And so that's why we're thinking you're probably going to see a much -- not much.

這就是為什麼我們認為你可能會看到很多——但不多。

You will see a quicker return on the aftermarket than you will on the OE side over the next couple of years.

在接下來的幾年裡，您將看到售後市場的回報比原廠設備更快。

As you know, I mean it's tough right now for both Boeing and Airbus to place planes because of the financing constraints that some of their customers are under.

如你所知，我的意思是，由於一些客戶面臨融資限制，波音和空中巴士目前都很難放置飛機。

Obviously, we'll work with Boeing and Airbus on that.

顯然，我們將與波音和空中巴士在這方面合作。

But I really think it's that parked fleet returning to service first before you see a lot of new aircraft out there.

但我真的認為，在你看到大量新飛機之前，停放的機隊首先恢復服務。

Ashley, we have time for one more question, please.

阿什利，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Your last question comes from Cai von Rumohr.

你的最後一個問題來自蔡馮魯莫爾。

So if you look at 2009, the aftermarket for the industry was down in low- to mid-teens, essentially about a 6% to 7% or less traffic decline.

因此，如果你看看 2009 年，你會發現該行業的售後市場下降幅度在 15% 到 15% 之間，基本上流量下降了 6% 到 7% 或更少。

If you expect traffic to be down 50%, why won't the aftermarket be down more?

如果您預期流量會下降 50%，為什麼售後市場不會下降更多？

Because this time, we also have ADS-B going against us, we have airlines talking of more retirements, and we have a much weaker OE backdrop and therefore, less provisioning.

因為這一次，ADS-B 也對我們不利，航空公司正在談論更多的退役，而我們的 OE 背景要弱得多，因此供應量也更少。

So why isn't the aftermarket, if you're down 50% in traffic, going to be down 70%?

那麼，如果流量下降了 50%，為什麼售後市場不會下降 70%呢？

Well, look, I think how much it's actually going to be down is the question of the day.

好吧，我認為今天的問題是它實際上會下降多少。

I would tell you, the ADS-B mandate, that was over at the end of December.

我想告訴你，ADS-B 任務已於 12 月底結束。

So we actually already factored ADS-B into our forward-looking guidance for aftermarket.

因此，我們實際上已經將 ADS-B 納入了我們的售後市場前瞻性指導中。

So I would tell you that's really outside of the 50% drop that we're talking about for an aftermarket.

所以我想告訴你，這確實超出了我們談論的售後市場 50% 的下降範圍。

It really just depends.

這真的取決於。

If you look and take a snapshot of where we are today, obviously, aftermarket is going to be down a lot more in April and May than the 50%.

如果你看看我們今天的情況，顯然，4 月和 5 月售後市場的跌幅將比 50% 的跌幅要大得多。

So we are expecting a gradual recovery through the course of the year.

因此，我們預計今年將逐步復甦。

And keep in mind, many of these -- many of the aftermarket contracts that we have on the Pratt side are hours-based.

請記住，我們在普拉特方面簽訂的許多售後合約都是按時間計算的。

So even if planes aren't flying full, if they're flying, they're generating revenue, they're generating aftermarket.

因此，即使飛機沒有滿員飛行，只要它們在飛行，它們就會產生收入，它們就會產生售後市場。

So that will help here as well to offset.

所以這也將有助於抵消。

So I think about 70% probably of the Pratt fleet today is powered by the hour.

因此，我認為如今普拉特車隊中大約 70% 的動力是按小時計算的。

And I think if you look at where China is today, they started this kind of slow recovery back up to about 40% over time, up from 20%.

我認為，如果你看看中國今天的情況，你會發現他們開始了這種緩慢的復甦，隨著時間的推移，從 20% 回升至 40% 左右。

We expect to see kind of that same gradual recovery during the course of the year.

我們預計今年會看到同樣的逐步復甦。

I'll tell you, we aren't going to know what the aftermarket looks like until we probably get to December 31.

我告訴你，我們可能要等到 12 月 31 日才能知道售後市場的情況。

We'll continue to give you guys an update as we speak, looking at this really month by month to see what the recovery profile looks like.

我們將繼續為大家提供最新消息，逐月查看恢復情況。

It's not a sharp V. It is more like a U-shape.

它不是一個尖銳的V形。它更像是一個U形。

And I still -- I think it's going to be a full 2 years before we see a recovery close to what we saw in terms of 2019 levels of aftermarket.

我仍然認為，我們需要整整兩年的時間才能看到售後市場恢復到接近 2019 年水準的水準。

And that could be -- it could well be 3 years.

這可能是——很可能是三年。

At the end of the day, we'll survive this.

到最後，我們都會撐過去的。

We'll get through it, but it's going to be painful because, as you know, that is a relatively high-margin business, which affords us the opportunity to make these big investments in engines and other technologies across the portfolio.

我們會度過難關，但這將是痛苦的，因為正如你所知，這是一項利潤率相對較高的業務，這使我們有機會在整個產品組合中對引擎和其他技術進行大量投資。

I will now hand the call back to Greg Hayes for closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉回給格雷格·海耶斯（Greg Hayes），讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Ashley, and thank you, everyone, for listening in.

謝謝阿什利，也謝謝大家的聆聽。

I recognize a lot of data here, a lot of change going on.

我認識到這裡有很多數據，很多變化正在發生。

Neil, Kelsey and team will be around today to answer your questions.

Neil、Kelsey 和團隊今天將在現場回答您的問題。

Thank you all for listening, and I would just ask everybody to be healthy and safe.

感謝大家的聆聽，我只希望每個人都健康、安全。

Take care.

小心。

That concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。