雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Raytheon Technologies Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Latif, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. On the call today are Greg Hayes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Jennifer Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. This call is being carried live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from Raytheon Technologies' website at www.rtx.com.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到雷神科技 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。我的名字是拉蒂夫，今天我將擔任您的接線員。提醒一下，正在錄製本次會議以供重播。今天的電話會議是董事長兼首席執行官 Greg Hayes；尼爾·米切爾，首席財務官；和投資者關係副總裁詹妮弗·里德（Jennifer Reed）。該電話正在互聯網上進行直播，並且可以從 Raytheon Technologies 的網站 www.rtx.com 下載演示文稿。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net nonrecurring and/or significant items often referred to by management as other significant items. The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Raytheon Technologies' SEC filings, including its forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions) With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Hayes.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括收購會計調整以及管理層經常將其稱為其他重要項目的淨非經常性和/或重要項目。該公司還提醒聽眾，本次電話會議中提供的收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。 Raytheon Technologies 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括其 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的結果大不相同的重要因素的詳細信息。 （操作員說明）這樣，我將把電話轉給海斯先生。

Thank you, Latif, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone had a chance to see our press release this morning. From that press release, I think one of the key takeaways is we had a really strong quarter for commercial aerospace, and we continue to see very strong demand for our products and services, as evidenced by our defense book-to-bill in the quarter of 1.35, an incredible number.

謝謝你，Latif，大家早上好。我希望每個人都有機會在今天早上看到我們的新聞稿。從那次新聞稿中，我認為一個關鍵的收穫是，我們在商業航空領域的季度表現非常強勁，而且我們繼續看到對我們的產品和服務的強勁需求，這一點從我們本季度的國防帳單到帳單就可以看出1.35，一個不可思議的數字。

We delivered these results in the midst of, I would say, a challenging period across our industry and most of industrial America. Inflation, supply chain and labor availability continue to be near-term constraints. We're working these things relentlessly by leveraging our scale and our portfolio to combat all of these different pressures.

我想說，我們在整個行業和美國大部分工業領域都處於充滿挑戰的時期，因此我們取得了這些成果。通貨膨脹、供應鍊和勞動力供應仍然是近期的製約因素。通過利用我們的規模和我們的產品組合來應對所有這些不同的壓力，我們正在不懈地做這些事情。

Before we get into the results, let me just spend a few minutes on the macro environment. On the defense side, the evolving threat environment, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, continues to drive global defense budgets higher. Most of our NATO allies have reaffirmed their commitment to spending at least 2% of GDP on national defense with many countries announcing even higher spending targets over the last several months.

在我們進入結果之前，讓我花幾分鐘時間了解一下宏觀環境。在國防方面，不斷變化的威脅環境，包括烏克蘭持續不斷的衝突，繼續推動全球國防預算增加。我們的大多數北約盟國都重申了將至少佔 GDP 的 2% 用於國防的承諾，許多國家在過去幾個月宣布了更高的支出目標。

For example, Poland has requested accelerated delivery of Patriot missile systems batteries, and both Germany and Finland have selected the F-35. As you know, the Department of Defense released its fiscal year '23 budget request earlier this year with modernization spending growing over 4%,and with modernization accounts, specifically RDT&E, expected to grow by nearly 10%.

例如，波蘭要求加快交付愛國者導彈系統電池，德國和芬蘭都選擇了 F-35。如您所知，國防部今年早些時候發布了其 23 財年預算請求，現代化支出增長超過 4%，而現代化賬戶，特別是 RDT&E，預計將增長近 10%。

We're also encouraged by the mark-ups that we've seen in Congress. The House Armed Services Committee has proposed a $37 billion increase to the administration's request. That's a 9% increase over fiscal '22, excluding the supplementals. On the Senate side, the Senate Armed Services Committee went even higher proposing a $45 billion mark, resulting in a DoD budget increase of 10% over fiscal '22, bringing the fiscal year '23 budget to over $815 billion. It's a lot different than what we expected 2 years ago.

我們在國會看到的加價也讓我們感到鼓舞。眾議院軍事委員會已根據政府的要求提議增加 370 億美元。這比 22 財年增加了 9%，不包括補充。在參議院方面，參議院軍事委員會提出了更高的建議，提出 450 億美元大關，導致國防部預算比 22 財年增加 10%，使 23 財年預算超過 8150 億美元。這與我們兩年前的預期有很大不同。

We're encouraged by the support of our programs with the authorizing committees recommending significant increases in spend over the President's budget request, including increases for Stingers, Javelins Next Generation Jammers, Tomahawk cruise missiles, just to name a few. And as I've said, our key programs in technologies and space, cyber, missiles, missile defense and non-kinetic effects are also well aligned with the U.S. and our allies defense priorities.

我們對我們的計劃的支持感到鼓舞，授權委員會建議在總統的預算要求基礎上大幅增加支出，包括增加 Stingers、Javelins Next Generation Jammers、Tomahawk 巡航導彈等等。正如我所說，我們在技術和空間、網絡、導彈、導彈防禦和非動能效應方面的關鍵計劃也與美國和我們盟國的防禦優先事項保持一致。

We ended the quarter with a defense backlog of $65 billion. That's up about $2 billion since the beginning of the year, and we expect it to grow even further in the remainder of the year. In the second quarter, we also saw a number of significant awards, including $4 billion to deliver F135 engines for lots 15 and 16, which will power all variants of the F-35 fighter. The total contract value opportunity is about $8 billion for F135 engines across lots 15 through 17. In addition, we received a $408 million contract for sustainment of the F-35 fleet -- F135 fleet rather.

我們在本季度末的國防積壓為 650 億美元。自今年年初以來，這一數字增加了約 20 億美元，我們預計它在今年剩餘時間內將進一步增長。在第二季度，我們還看到了一些重要的獎項，包括 40 億美元用於為第 15 和 16 批提供 F135 發動機，這將為 F-35 戰鬥機的所有變體提供動力。第 15 至 17 批的 F135 發動機的總合同價值機會約為 80 億美元。此外，我們收到了一份價值 4.08 億美元的 F-35 機隊——更確切地說是 F135 機隊的維持合同。

The F135 engine continues to be the most advanced and, I would say, the safest fighter engine ever produced and possesses unrivaled operational capability and mission effectiveness. As the global threats evolve, the F-135 could be upgraded to increase its thrust, range and power thermal management to support the needs of the war fighter well into the next decade.

F135 發動機仍然是最先進的，我會說，是有史以來最安全的戰鬥機發動機，並擁有無與倫比的作戰能力和任務效率。隨著全球威脅的演變，F-135 可以升級以增加其推力、航程和功率熱管理，以支持未來十年內作戰人員的需求。

We also received a $648 million award to deliver SM-3 missiles to the Missile Defense Agency, a $662 million awarded R&D to replenish 1,300 Stinger missiles as well as awards to replenish Javelin missiles. RIS also had a $1.2 billion bookings of classified programs.

我們還獲得了 6.48 億美元的獎勵，用於嚮導彈防禦局提供 SM-3 導彈，獲得 6.62 億美元的獎勵用於補充 1,300 枚毒刺導彈的研發以及補充標槍導彈的獎勵。 RIS 還預訂了 12 億美元的機密節目。

During the quarter, RMD was also down selected by the MDA to continue developing a first-of-its-kind counter hypersonic missile, the Glide Phase Interceptor. In a few weeks -- just a few weeks ago, RMD along with our industry partner, Northrop Grumman, successfully completed the second flight test of the scramjet-powered Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept, or HAWC for DARPA and the U.S. Air Force. The flight test applied the data and lessons learned from the first flight test last September to demonstrate how rapidly we've matured affordable scramjet technology.

在本季度，RMD 還被 MDA 選中繼續開發首個反高超音速導彈——滑翔相攔截器。幾週後——就在幾週前，RMD 與我們的行業合作夥伴諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司成功完成了 DARPA 和美國空軍的超燃沖壓發動機動力高超音速吸氣武器概念或 HAWC 的第二次飛行測試。飛行測試應用了去年 9 月首次飛行測試的數據和經驗教訓，以證明我們已經以多快的速度成熟了負擔得起的超燃沖壓發動機技術。

At the same time, commercial air traffic demand continues to gain momentum with a strong start to the summer travel season. Globally, Q2 revenue passenger miles reached nearly 70% of the pre-pandemic levels. In the U.S., travelers through TSA checkpoints were up 30% year-over-year in the second quarter or nearly 90% of 2019 levels. And with travel restrictions easing around the world, we expect growing demand for international travel in the second half of the year with international revenue passenger miles growing from over 60% of 2019 levels at the end of Q2 to about 75% to 80% of 2019 levels by the end of the year.

與此同時，隨著夏季旅遊旺季的強勁開局，商業航空交通需求繼續增長。在全球範圍內，第二季度的收入乘客里程達到了大流行前水平的近 70%。在美國，通過 TSA 檢查站的旅客在第二季度同比增長 30%，或接近 2019 年水平的 90%。隨著全球旅行限制的放鬆，我們預計下半年國際旅行的需求將不斷增長，國際收入旅客里程將從第二季度末的 2019 年的 60% 以上增長到 2019 年的 75% 至 80%到年底的水平。

That being said, we all know that global supply chain isn't where it needs to be, and we're aggressively managing these issues every day. Microelectronics, rocket motors, structural castings, all continue to pace manufacturing lines. Today, we have people embedded about 330 of our suppliers to help improve performance. And we're also qualifying second, in some cases, third sources for critical parts as necessary.

話雖如此，我們都知道全球供應鏈不是它需要的地方，我們每天都在積極管理這些問題。微電子、火箭發動機、結構鑄件，都在繼續加快生產線的步伐。今天，我們已經聘請了大約 330 家供應商來幫助提高績效。而且，在某些情況下，我們也有資格獲得關鍵部件的第二個來源，在某些情況下，第三個來源是必要的。

Inflation also continues to be at elevated levels, no surprise there. However, on the commercial side, we have long-term agreements in place that cover about 80% of our spend and cover multiple years which provides an inflation buffer at least in the near term. On the defense side, we can price inflation into annual production contracts and flow through our rate structure. Additionally, we're driving further automation, standardization and process improvement projects throughout the company to mitigate inflation headwinds.

通貨膨脹也繼續處於高位，這並不奇怪。然而，在商業方面，我們簽訂了涵蓋約 80% 支出並涵蓋多年的長期協議，這至少在短期內提供了通脹緩衝。在國防方面，我們可以將通貨膨脹計入年度生產合同並通過我們的費率結構流動。此外，我們正在整個公司推動進一步的自動化、標準化和流程改進項目，以減輕通脹逆風。

And lastly, and perhaps just most importantly, the availability of skilled labor is a real challenge across multiple industries right now. And we're seeing it both at our suppliers and within our own shops. It takes time to hire and train new employees. It doesn't just happen overnight, especially in certain areas such as much of our classified work.

最後，也許也是最重要的一點，熟練勞動力的可用性是目前跨多個行業的真正挑戰。我們在我們的供應商和我們自己的商店都看到了它。僱用和培訓新員工需要時間。它不會在一夜之間發生，尤其是在某些領域，例如我們的許多機密工作。

Despite these near-term challenges, what differentiates us is our balanced A&D portfolio and our world-class technologies that gives us the ability to deliver on our commitments. Okay. We'll just take a quick look at Q2. And I'm on Slide 2, for those of you following along. We delivered another solid quarter with sales growing 4% organically. Adjusted EPS was a little bit ahead of our expectations at $1.16, and that's up 13% versus the prior year, and free cash flow was essentially in line with our expectations. Growth in the quarter was led by strong commercial aftermarket sales that were up over 26% from the prior year. This strength was partially offset by continued supply chain and labor constraints that principally impacted the defense businesses as well as some delays in expected contract awards. Notwithstanding these challenges, we continue to see full year sales in the range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. And adjusted EPS, we continue to see that in the $4.60 to $4.80 range. However, there are some changes within the segments as strength in the commercial aero will help to offset impacts in our defense businesses that Neil and Jennifer will discuss in just a little bit later in the call.

儘管存在這些近期挑戰，但我們的不同之處在於我們平衡的 A&D 產品組合和世界一流的技術，這使我們有能力兌現我們的承諾。好的。我們將快速瀏覽第二季度。我在幻燈片 2 上，為那些跟隨的人。我們又實現了一個穩健的季度，銷售額有機增長了 4%。調整後每股收益為 1.16 美元，略高於我們的預期，較上年增長 13%，自由現金流基本符合我們的預期。本季度的增長得益於強勁的商業售後市場銷售，比上年增長了 26% 以上。這一優勢被主要影響國防業務的持續供應鍊和勞動力限制以及預期合同授予的一些延遲部分抵消。儘管存在這些挑戰，我們仍然看到全年銷售額在 677.5 億美元至 687.5 億美元之間。調整後的每股收益，我們繼續看到在 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元的範圍內。然而，由於商業航空的實力將有助於抵消對我們國防業務的影響，尼爾和詹妮弗將在稍後的電話會議中討論這一點，因此這些細分市場發生了一些變化。

As far as our cash flow outlook, we continue to expect about $6 billion of free cash flow for the year. That's, of course, assuming that the R&D tax legislation is repealed. Finally, we repurchased over $1 billion of RTX shares in the quarter, putting us at about $1.8 billion year-to-date, and we remain on track to repurchase at least $2.5 billion for the year. Through the end of the second quarter, we've already returned nearly $11 billion of capital to shareowners since the merger in April of 2020, and we're more than halfway to our commitment to return at least $20 billion in the first 4 years following the merger.

就我們的現金流展望而言，我們繼續預計今年的自由現金流約為 60 億美元。當然，這是假設研發稅法已被廢除。最後，我們在本季度回購了超過 10 億美元的 RTX 股票，使我們今年迄今的價格約為 18 億美元，我們仍有望在今年回購至少 25 億美元。自 2020 年 4 月合併以來，截至第二季度末，我們已經向股東返還了近 110 億美元的資本，並且我們承諾在之後的前 4 年至少返還 200 億美元的承諾已完成一半以上合併。

With that, let me turn it over to Neil, and I'll be back at the end for a wrap-up and Q&A. Neil?

有了這個，讓我把它交給尼爾，我會在最後回來進行總結和問答。尼爾？

Thank you, Greg. Before I talk about the full year, let's look at the second quarter results on Slide 3. As Greg noted, sales of $16.3 billion, grew 4% on an organic basis versus the prior year. Our performance in the quarter was driven by the continued recovery of air travel due to the pent-up demand that was partially offset by continued supply chain constraints that, as Greg said, principally impacted our defense businesses. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.16 was up 13% year-over-year and was ahead of our expectations primarily driven by strength in commercial aftermarket at Collins and Pratt and some favorable corporate items, including lower tax expense, which more than offset the impact of lower defense volume and productivity.

謝謝你，格雷格。在我談論全年之前，讓我們看一下幻燈片 3 上的第二季度業績。正如 Greg 所說，銷售額為 163 億美元，與去年相比有機增長了 4%。我們在本季度的表現是由航空旅行的持續復甦推動的，原因是被壓抑的需求被持續的供應鏈限制所部分抵消，正如格雷格所說，主要影響了我們的國防業務。調整後每股收益為 1.16 美元，同比增長 13%，超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於柯林斯和普拉特商業售後市場的實力以及一些有利的企業項目，包括較低的稅收費用，這足以抵消降低防禦量和生產力。

On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.88 per share and included $0.28 of acquisition accounting adjustments and net significant and/or nonrecurring items. And finally, free cash flow of $807 million was generally in line with our expectations for the quarter.

根據公認會計原則，持續經營的每股收益為每股 0.88 美元，其中包括 0.28 美元的收購會計調整和淨重大和/或非經常性項目。最後，8.07 億美元的自由現金流總體上符合我們對本季度的預期。

So let me give you some perspective on how we're thinking about the environment as we look ahead to the second half of the year. Let's turn to Slide 4. I'll start with some positives. The recovery in commercial air traffic remains as strong -- very strong as airlines entered the summer travel season with leisure travel bookings well above 2019 levels and the active fleet is at its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic. And as you saw, our commercial aftermarket sales continue to grow generally in line with our expectations for the quarter.

因此，讓我給您一些關於我們在展望下半年時如何考慮環境的看法。讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。我將從一些積極的方面開始。商業航空交通的複蘇依然強勁——隨著航空公司進入夏季旅遊旺季，其休閒旅行預訂量遠高於 2019 年的水平，並且活躍的機隊處於大流行開始以來的最高水平，因此復蘇非常強勁。正如您所看到的，我們的商業售後市場銷售總體上繼續增長，符合我們對本季度的預期。

Geographically, U.S. domestic demand has remained strong, while China domestic travel has lagged our expectations so far this year. That said, domestic air traffic in China began to rebound as lockdowns ease throughout the second quarter.

從地域上看，美國國內需求依然強勁，而中國國內旅遊今年迄今落後於我們的預期。儘管如此，隨著整個第二季度的封鎖放鬆，中國的國內航空運輸量開始反彈。

On the international front, short-haul international travel or intra-region travel has been quite strong, fueled by a stronger-than-expected European recovery so far this year. And long-haul international travel or trans-regional travel has shown slow but steady sequential growth. And while this is encouraging, we need to see this segment of the market accelerate in the second half of the year.

在國際方面，受今年迄今為止歐洲復甦強於預期的推動，短途國際旅行或區域內旅行相當強勁。長途國際旅行或跨地區旅行呈現緩慢但穩定的環比增長。雖然這令人鼓舞，但我們需要看到這部分市場在下半年加速發展。

On the defense side, as Greg mentioned, we are optimistic about the fiscal '23 budget request and our continued alignment with the priorities of the United States and our allies. And on the cost reduction front, we remain laser-focused on driving operational excellence and our structural cost reduction projects to deliver further margin expansion. In the second quarter, we achieved about $80 million of incremental cost synergies, keeping us on track to achieve $335 million this year and well on our way to $1.5 billion of total gross cost synergies since the merger.

正如格雷格所提到的，在國防方面，我們對 23 財年的預算要求以及我們繼續與美國和我們盟國的優先事項保持一致感到樂觀。在降低成本方面，我們仍然專注於推動卓越運營和我們的結構性成本降低項目，以進一步擴大利潤率。在第二季度，我們實現了約 8000 萬美元的增量成本協同效應，使我們今年有望實現 3.35 億美元，並且自合併以來總成本協同效應有望達到 15 億美元。

At the same time, we continue to monitor the broader geopolitical landscape as well as the U.S. and global tax environment.

與此同時，我們繼續關注更廣泛的地緣政治格局以及美國和全球稅收環境。

And finally, on the challenges side, we continue to see global supply chain and inflationary pressure as well as labor availability constraints. During the second quarter, we saw a slower-than-expected recovery in material receipts and the resulting impacts to our shop productivity along with increasing inflationary pressures in labor, freight and other indirect cost areas. And while we remain focused on aggressive mitigation actions, we don't expect these pressures to ease until next year.

最後，在挑戰方面，我們繼續看到全球供應鍊和通脹壓力以及勞動力供應限制。在第二季度，我們看到材料收入的複蘇慢於預期，由此對我們的車間生產力產生了影響，同時勞動力、貨運和其他間接成本領域的通脹壓力也在增加。雖然我們仍然專注於積極的緩解行動，但我們預計這些壓力要到明年才會緩解。

So moving on to our outlook on Slide 5. We continue to expect our full year sales to be in the range of $67.75 billion to $68.75 billion. However, due to continued supply chain and labor constraints, we now expect lower sales and operating profit at both RIS and RMD for the full year. Those sales impacts are expected to be largely offset by the stronger commercial aerospace recovery we're seeing at Collins and Pratt.

因此，繼續我們對幻燈片 5 的展望。我們繼續預計我們的全年銷售額將在 677.5 億美元至 687.5 億美元之間。然而，由於持續的供應鍊和勞動力限制，我們現在預計 RIS 和 RMD 全年的銷售額和營業利潤都會下降。預計這些銷售影響將在很大程度上被我們在柯林斯和普拉特看到的更強勁的商業航空航天復蘇所抵消。

From an earnings perspective, we're holding our adjusted EPS range of $4.60 to $4.80 per share but expect to be more towards the midpoint of the range as we don't expect some of the headwinds to fully recover in the year. I should also point out that we continue to work mitigations to offset the impact of ceasing business activities with Russia and minimizing any impact to our customers. I'll provide more color on the moving pieces between the businesses in a moment.

從收益的角度來看，我們將調整後的每股收益範圍保持在每股 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元，但預計會更接近該範圍的中點，因為我們預計一些不利因素不會在今年完全恢復。我還應該指出，我們將繼續採取緩解措施，以抵消停止與俄羅斯的業務活動的影響，並將對我們客戶的任何影響降至最低。稍後我會為企業之間的移動部分提供更多顏色。

And on the cash front, we continue to expect free cash flow of about $6 billion for the year. It's important to mention that our cash flow outlook continues to assume that the legislation requiring R&D capitalization for tax purposes is deferred beyond 2022, which, as I've said before, the free cash flow impact of this legislation is approximately $2 billion for the year. If the legislation isn't deferred by September 15, we will have to make an incremental cash tax payment of about $1.5 billion here in the third quarter. However, this payment is a timing issue only as we will receive a refund in 2023 for the overpayment if the legislation is ultimately deferred by year-end as we continue to expect.

在現金方面，我們繼續預計今年的自由現金流約為 60 億美元。值得一提的是，我們的現金流展望繼續假設要求將研發資本化用於稅收目的的立法推遲到 2022 年之後，正如我之前所說，該立法對當年的自由現金流影響約為 20 億美元.如果立法沒有在 9 月 15 日之前推遲，我們將不得不在第三季度增加約 15 億美元的現金稅。但是，這筆付款只是時間問題，因為如果立法最終如我們繼續預期的那樣推遲到年底，我們將在 2023 年收到多付的退款。

So with that, let's move to Slide 6 for some color on the segment outlooks. At Collins, we continue to expect full year sales to be up low double digits versus prior year, where we now see a little stronger commercial aftermarket recovery that's partially offset by supply chain-induced pressures on military sales. As a result of better sales mix and spending containment measures, we are increasing Collins adjusted operating profit from up $650 million to $800 million to a new range of up $700 million to $825 million versus last year.

因此，讓我們轉到幻燈片 6，了解細分市場前景的一些顏色。在柯林斯，我們繼續預計全年銷售額將比去年低兩位數，我們現在看到商業售後市場復甦略有增強，這部分被供應鏈引起的軍售壓力所抵消。由於更好的銷售組合和支出控制措施，我們將柯林斯調整後的營業利潤從去年的 6.5 億美元增加到 8 億美元，提高到 7 億美元到 8.25 億美元的新範圍。

Turning to Pratt & Whitney. We're increasing Pratt & Whitney sales range from up high single to low double digits to a new range of up low teens versus prior year, and that's driven by stronger commercial aftermarket and better commercial OE mix.

轉向普惠。與去年相比，我們正在將普惠的銷售範圍從高個位數到低兩位數增加到新的低位青少年範圍，這是由更強大的商業售後市場和更好的商業 OE 組合推動的。

With respect to operating profit at Pratt, we're increasing Pratt's adjusted operating profit from a range of up $500 million to $600 million to a new range of up $550 million to $650 million versus last year.

關於 Pratt 的營業利潤，我們將 Pratt 的調整後營業利潤從去年的 5 億美元至 6 億美元提高到 5.5 億美元至 6.5 億美元的新範圍。

Turning to RIS. Due to the pressures we've discussed along with delays in awards, we're reducing RIS' reported sales outlook from down slightly to a new range of down mid-single digit to down low-single digit versus prior year. And organically, we're reducing RIS' outlook from up low single digit and now see RIS' organic sales roughly flat versus prior year. And as a result of lower sales outlook and the impact of unfavorable development program adjustments, we're reducing RIS' full year adjusted operating profit from the prior range of flat to up $50 million to a new range of down $50 million to flat versus prior year.

轉向RIS。由於我們已經討論過的壓力以及獎勵的延遲，我們將 RIS 報告的銷售前景從小幅下調至與去年相比下降中個位數到下個位數的新範圍。有機地，我們將 RIS 的前景從低個位數下調，現在看到 RIS 的有機銷售額與去年基本持平。由於較低的銷售前景和不利的發展計劃調整的影響，我們將 RIS 的全年調整後營業利潤從之前的持平至上 5000 萬美元的範圍降低到與之前相比下降 5000 萬美元至持平的新範圍年。

And finally, at RMD, also due to ongoing material availability delays and the associated productivity impact, along with the anticipated cost reduction, we are reducing RMD's full year sales outlook from the prior range of up low to mid-single digit to a new outlook of up slightly versus prior year. And as a result, we are reducing RMD's adjusted operating profit from a prior range of up $150 million to $200 million and now expect RMD's operating profit to be in the range of down $50 million to flat versus prior year.

最後，在 RMD，同樣由於持續的材料供應延遲和相關的生產力影響，以及預期的成本降低，我們正在將 RMD 的全年銷售前景從之前的低到中個位數範圍降低到新的前景與上年相比略有上升。因此，我們將 RMD 的調整後營業利潤從之前的 1.5 億美元減少到 2 億美元，現在預計 RMD 的營業利潤將在 5000 萬美元的範圍內與去年持平。

And we also expect some improvement in some corporate spending and a lower full year tax rate. We've included and updated outlook for some of those below-the-line items in the webcast appendix. So with that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to take you through the second quarter segment results.

我們還預計一些企業支出會有所改善，全年稅率會降低。我們在網絡廣播附錄中包含並更新了一些線下項目的展望。因此，讓我把它交給詹妮弗，帶你了解第二季度的業績。

Thanks, Neil. Starting with Collins Aerospace on Slide 7. Sales were $5 billion in the quarter, up 10% on an adjusted basis and up 11% on an organic basis, driven primarily by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace end markets. By channel, commercial aftermarket sales were up 25% driven by a 33% increase in parts and repair, a 20% increase in provisioning and an 8% increase in modification and upgrades. Sequentially, commercial aftermarket sales were up 3%. Commercial OE sales were up 14% versus prior year with strength in narrowbody offsetting expected headwinds from lower 787 deliveries.

謝謝，尼爾。從幻燈片 7 上的柯林斯航空航天公司開始。本季度銷售額為 50 億美元，調整後增長 10%，有機增長 11%，主要受商業航空終端市場持續復甦的推動。按渠道劃分，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 25%，這得益於零部件和維修增長 33%、供應增長 20% 以及改裝和升級增長 8%。隨後，商業售後市場銷售額增長了 3%。商業 OE 銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 14%，窄體機的實力抵消了 787 交付量下降帶來的預期阻力。

Military sales were down 6% driven primarily by lower material receipts on military programs and expected declines in F-35 volume. Adjusted operating profit of $617 million, was up $99 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket more than offset higher SG&A expense, the absence of favorable contract settlements and lower military sales volume.

軍用銷售額下降 6%，主要是由於軍事項目的材料收入減少以及 F-35 數量的預期下降。調整後的營業利潤為 6.17 億美元，比上年增加 9900 萬美元。較高的商業售後市場的直接通過抵消了較高的 SG&A 費用、缺乏有利的合同結算和較低的軍售量。

Looking ahead, as Neil discussed, we continue to see Collins' full year sales up low double digits, and we now see adjusted operating profit up $700 million to $825 million versus last year.

展望未來，正如尼爾所討論的那樣，我們繼續看到柯林斯的全年銷售額保持兩位數的低位，我們現在看到調整後的營業利潤與去年相比增長 7 億美元至 8.25 億美元。

Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on Slide 8. Sales of $5 billion were up 16% on an adjusted basis and up 17% on an organic basis with sales growing across all segments. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 26% in the quarter with growth in both legacy large commercial engine and Pratt Canada shop visits. Commercial OE sales were up 22% driven by higher GTF deliveries and favorable mix within Pratt's large commercial engine business.

在幻燈片 8 上轉向普惠。50 億美元的銷售額在調整後增長了 16%，在有機基礎上增長了 17%，所有細分市場的銷售額都在增長。本季度商業售後市場銷售額增長 26%，傳統大型商業引擎和 Pratt Canada 商店訪問量均有所增長。商用 OE 銷售額增長 22%，這是由於 GTF 交付量增加以及 Pratt 大型商用發動機業務的有利組合。

In the military business, sales were up 5% driven primarily by the timing of F135 production contract award in Q2, and higher F135 aftermarket volume. Adjusted operating profit of $303 million was up $207 million from the prior year. Drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket, favorable commercial OE mix along with higher military volume were partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D. Looking ahead, we now expect Pratt sales to be up low teens and for adjusted operating profit to be up $550 million to $650 million versus 2021.

在軍用業務中，銷售額增長 5%，主要受第二季度 F135 生產合同授予的時機以及 F135 售後市場銷量增加的推動。調整後的營業利潤為 3.03 億美元，比上年增加 2.07 億美元。更高的商業售後市場、有利的商業 OE 組合以及更高的軍用銷量部分被更高的 SG&A 和研發所抵消。展望未來，我們現在預計普拉特的銷售額將增長到十幾歲，調整後的營業利潤與 2021 年相比將增加 5.5 億美元至 6.5 億美元。

Turning now to Slide 9. RIS sales of $3.6 billion were down 6% versus prior year on an adjusted basis, primarily driven by the divestiture of the Global Training and Services business. Sales were down 1% versus prior year on an organic basis due to lower expected sales in Command, Control and Communications as well as lower sales within Sensing and Effects that were partially offset by higher sales in classified cyber programs within Cyber Training and Services. The quarter was also impacted by the delay of certain contract awards.

現在轉到幻燈片 9。RIS 銷售額為 36 億美元，經調整後比上年下降 6%，主要是由於剝離了全球培訓和服務業務。由於指揮、控制和通信領域的預期銷售額下降以及傳感和效果領域的銷售額下降，部分銷售額被網絡培訓和服務中機密網絡項目的銷售額增加所抵消，因此銷售額與去年相比有機下降了 1%。本季度還受到某些合同授予延遲的影響。

Adjusted operating profit in the quarter of $315 million was down $100 million versus prior year, primarily driven by lower net program efficiencies, including unfavorable development program adjustments, the impact of the divestiture and the absence of a land sale in the prior year.

本季度調整後的營業利潤為 3.15 億美元，較上年減少 1 億美元，主要是由於淨項目效率降低，包括不利的開發項目調整、資產剝離的影響以及上一年沒有土地出售。

RIS had $3 billion of bookings in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 and a backlog of $16 billion. It's worth noting that we continue to expect RIS' full year book-to-bill to be greater than 1.

RIS 在本季度的預訂量為 30 億美元，導致訂單出貨量為 0.92，積壓為 160 億美元。值得注意的是，我們繼續預計 RIS 的全年訂單出貨比將大於 1。

Turning to RIS' full year outlook. As Neil discussed, we now expect RIS sales to be down mid-single digits to down low single digits on a reported basis versus prior year and to be about flat on an organic basis. And we expect RIS' adjusted operating profit to be down $50 million to flat versus prior year.

轉向 RIS 的全年展望。正如尼爾所討論的那樣，我們現在預計 RIS 銷售額在報告的基礎上與去年相比將下降中個位數至低個位數，並且在有機基礎上基本持平。我們預計 RIS 調整後的營業利潤將與去年同期相比下降 5000 萬美元，與去年持平。

Turning now to Slide 10. RMD sales were $3.6 billion, down 11% on an adjusted basis and down 10% on an organic basis, primarily driven by continuing delays in material availability and expected declines in certain Land Warfare and Air Defense programs that were partially offset by higher volume on SPY-6 production and NextGeneration Interceptor development. Adjusted operating profit of $348 million was $184 million lower than prior year driven primarily by lower net program efficiencies resulting from continued supply chain constraints and unfavorable program mix and lower volume primarily in Land Warfare and Air Defense programs.

現在轉到幻燈片 10。RMD 銷售額為 36 億美元，調整後下降 11%，有機下降 10%，主要是由於材料供應持續延遲以及某些陸戰和防空計劃的預期下降，部分原因是被 SPY-6 生產和下一代攔截器開發量的增加所抵消。調整後的營業利潤為 3.48 億美元，比上年減少 1.84 億美元，這主要是由於持續的供應鏈限制和不利的計劃組合以及主要是陸戰和防空計劃的數量減少導致淨計劃效率降低。

RMD's bookings in the quarter were approximately $4.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.3 and a backlog of $30 billion. In addition to the awards that Greg discussed, RMD also booked $423 million on the SPY-6 Hardware Production and Sustainment program and $217 million for Tomahawk production for the U.S. Navy. For the full year, we now expect RMD's full year book-to-bill to be closer to 1.2. And looking ahead, we now expect RMD sales to be up slightly versus prior year and for adjusted operating profit to be down $50 million to flat versus prior year. With that, I'll turn it back to Greg to wrap things up.

RMD 在本季度的預訂量約為 45 億美元，導致訂單出貨量為 1.3，積壓為 300 億美元。除了 Greg 討論的獎項外，RMD 還為 SPY-6 硬件生產和維持計劃預訂了 4.23 億美元，為美國海軍的戰斧生產預訂了 2.17 億美元。對於全年，我們現在預計 RMD 的全年訂單出貨比將接近 1.2。展望未來，我們現在預計 RMD 銷售額將與去年相比略有上升，調整後的營業利潤將與去年相比下降 5000 萬美元至持平。有了這個，我會把它交給格雷格來結束。

Okay. Thank you, Jennifer. I'm on Slide 11 now. We'll be just a second for Q&A. So despite some of the macro uncertainties for the remainder of the year, we're well equipped to mitigate the challenges that we talked about: supply chain, inflation and labor availability. We're going to do that through our focus on cost reduction, operational excellence, all in order to meet the commitments that we set out to investors earlier this year.

好的。謝謝你，詹妮弗。我現在在幻燈片 11 上。我們將稍等片刻進行問答。因此，儘管今年剩餘時間存在一些宏觀不確定性，但我們有能力緩解我們談到的挑戰：供應鏈、通貨膨脹和勞動力供應。我們將通過專注於降低成本、卓越運營來實現這一目標，所有這些都是為了履行我們今年早些時候對投資者做出的承諾。

And while we continue to make progress, let me just say that we're certainly not satisfied with the performance in our defense businesses this quarter. There is much to do. Bookings were outstanding; execution, not so much. At the same time, we continue to invest in technology and innovation for our customers as well as execute on our capital allocation strategy to drive significant long-term growth and shareowner value well into the future.

雖然我們繼續取得進展，但我只想說，我們對本季度國防業務的表現當然不滿意。有很多事情要做。預訂未完成；執行，沒有那麼多。與此同時，我們繼續為客戶投資於技術和創新，並執行我們的資本配置戰略，以推動未來顯著的長期增長和股東價值。

With our industry-leading franchises across A&D, we're prepared to capitalize on the commercial aerospace recovery and growing defense budgets. Balance continues to work. And I think most importantly, we remain confident in our ability to hit the 2025 targets that we set in May of last year at our investor meeting.

憑藉我們在 A&D 領域領先的特許經營權，我們已準備好利用商業航空航天復蘇和不斷增長的國防預算。平衡繼續起作用。我認為最重要的是，我們對實現去年 5 月在投資者會議上設定的 2025 年目標的能力仍然充滿信心。

There's a lot to do. There's always more to do. With that, let's open up the call for questions. Latif?

有很多事情要做。總是有更多的事情要做。有了這個，讓我們打開問題的電話。拉提夫？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Ron Epstein of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

So maybe if we can peel back the onion more on what's going on in the supply chain and defense. And for RMD, right, you were down 7% in the first quarter, 11% this quarter. You say you're going to be up during the year, which means you're going to have a pretty good inflection. How is that going to happen? It's almost a little hard to believe.

因此，也許我們可以在供應鍊和國防方面更多地剝離洋蔥。對於 RMD，對，第一季度下降了 7%，本季度下降了 11%。你說你會在這一年裡起床，這意味著你會有一個很好的轉折點。這將如何發生？這幾乎有點難以置信。

And then I guess, another way to ask this, it seems like your commercial businesses right now are run better than your defense businesses, but there are any lessons that the defense businesses can learn from the commercial business? Because it's really surprising. I mean you guys are a DX-designated company. So you should have full-on ahead of the line right in terms of supply chain. So what's really going on there? Because it's surprising that it's hitting you guys so hard.

然後我想，換一種方式問這個問題，看起來你們現在的商業業務比你們的國防業務運行得更好，但是國防企業可以從商業業務中學到什麼教訓嗎？因為真的很意外。我的意思是你們是DX指定的公司。因此，就供應鏈而言，您應該全力以赴。那麼那裡到底發生了什麼？因為令人驚訝的是它對你們的打擊如此之大。

Ron, that is the question of the day, I would tell you. First of all, just to be clear, most of our programs are not DX-rated. In fact, there are very few where we have DPAS ratings that give us priority in the supply chain. Again, those are very, very few. But I'll tell you, there's a couple of significant differences between our commercial businesses and the defense side.

羅恩，這是今天的問題，我會告訴你。首先，要明確一點，我們的大多數程序都不是 DX 級的。事實上，我們很少有 DPAS 評級在供應鏈中給予我們優先權。同樣，這些非常非常少。但我會告訴你，我們的商業業務和國防方之間存在一些顯著差異。

On the commercial side, you would say this for about 80% of our supplies -- suppliers are on long-term agreements, right? That long-term agreement allows us the ability to give forecast demand, but it also gives us a priority. And our suppliers as part of those LTAs are required to keep buffer stock in place. Now all that gives us certainty of cost and certainty of delivery.

在商業方面，您會說我們大約 80% 的供應是這樣的——供應商簽訂了長期協議，對嗎？該長期協議使我們能夠提供預測需求，但它也賦予了我們優先權。作為這些長期協議的一部分，我們的供應商必須保持緩衝庫存到位。現在，這一切都讓我們確定了成本和交付的確定性。

Now it doesn't always work. We talked about structural castings at Pratt & Whitney back in Q1. That continues to be a challenge. But for the most part, the commercial businesses have done a better job, I would say, because of the way we structure those long-term agreements. If you look at the defense side of the business, only about 10% of those businesses of RMD and RIS' suppliers are on long-term agreements. And that's not surprising because of government contracting rules.

現在它並不總是有效。我們在第一季度談到了普惠的結構鑄件。這仍然是一個挑戰。但在大多數情況下，商業企業做得更好，我想說，因為我們構建這些長期協議的方式。如果您查看業務的防禦方面，RMD 和 RIS 供應商的這些業務中只有大約 10% 簽訂了長期協議。由於政府的合同規定，這並不奇怪。

The problem that we've had is as we've received all these new awards, we've been going out -- and once the award is set, once the contract is signed, we're going out and we're putting -- suppliers on contract, and we're seeing lead times double and sometimes triple. And we have been, I would say, caught off guard a little bit by how much pressure there is in the supply chain. And I would tell you, it all goes back to labor availability.

我們遇到的問題是，當我們獲得所有這些新獎項時，我們一直在走出去——一旦確定了獎項，一旦簽訂了合同，我們就會走出去，我們正在投入—— - 合同供應商，我們看到交貨時間翻了一番，有時是三倍。我想說的是，我們對供應鏈中存在的巨大壓力有點措手不及。我會告訴你，這一切都可以追溯到勞動力可用性。

Typically, during these -- the downturn that we saw in A&D 2 years ago, there was a lot of layoffs. There's a lot of people that were let go. Typically, we get about 75% to 80% of those folks come back off of layoff. In this case, what we're seeing in our supply chain is only about 25% of the people are coming back. They have found other jobs, similar jobs. Again, because the labor market is so tight in this country, we just don't have a large pool of resources.

通常情況下，在兩年前我們在 A&D 看到的低迷時期，有很多裁員。有很多人被放過。通常情況下，我們大約有 75% 到 80% 的人從裁員中回來。在這種情況下，我們在供應鏈中看到的只是大約 25% 的人回來了。他們找到了其他工作，類似的工作。同樣，由於這個國家的勞動力市場如此緊張，我們只是沒有大量的資源。

The other problem I would tell you again, it's not just material, it's also labor availability. I'm thinking about our RIS business, which has over 5,000 programs that we're executing on, right? That requires engineers and engineers with clearances. If you look at the unemployment rate for engineering talent in the U.S., it's less than 2%. We started the year with a goal of hiring about 2,000 engineers net of attrition, which means we have to hire probably more than 5,000, and we are struggling in that regard as well. And again, you don't think about it, but engineers working on programs generate revenue.

我要再次告訴你的另一個問題，不僅僅是材料，還有勞動力的可用性。我正在考慮我們的 RIS 業務，我們正在執行超過 5,000 個程序，對嗎？這需要有權限的工程師和工程師。如果你看一下美國工程人才的失業率，它不到 2%。今年年初，我們的目標是招聘約 2,000 名工程師（扣除減員），這意味著我們可能必須僱傭超過 5,000 名工程師，我們也在這方面苦苦掙扎。再說一次，您不會考慮它，但是從事程序工作的工程師會產生收入。

And so as we think about the issues in Q2 and really the first half of the year, we have seen the supply chain but also a labor availability impact our defense businesses. As you talk about the back half of the year, you're absolutely right, there is a lot of work to do. Right now, just to give you a couple of statistics, in the second quarter, in our factories, we typically look to provide kits to the shop floor to assemble, and we target somewhere between 90% and 95% kit availability. In other words, all the parts are there, 90% to 95% of the time.

因此，當我們考慮第二季度和上半年的問題時，我們已經看到供應鏈以及勞動力可用性影響了我們的國防業務。當你談到下半年時，你是絕對正確的，還有很多工作要做。現在，為了給您提供一些統計數據，在第二季度，在我們的工廠中，我們通常希望向車間提供套件進行組裝，我們的目標是套件可用性在 90% 到 95% 之間。換句話說，所有部件都在那裡，90% 到 95% 的時間。

In the second quarter, because of all of these supply chain constraints, we saw kit fill rates around 50% -- 50%. So you can imagine the amount of rework, the lost productivity in our shops as we are starting things that are not complete. Going back, doing rework, all of that is what's causing some of these headaches on the defense side. Now as we look at the back half of the year, we've had some very deep dive reviews with Chris Calio and Neil Mitchill with the guys going out and making sure that we have line of sight to the supplier recovery plans. And we expect kit fill rates, for instance, to go from roughly 50% to about 80% by the end of the year. That's a big get, but we absolutely have to do that. And again, we are deploying resources.

在第二季度，由於所有這些供應鏈限制，我們看到套件填充率約為 50% - 50%。因此，您可以想像返工的數量，以及當我們開始做不完整的事情時我們車間的生產力損失。回去，做返工，所有這些都是在防守端引起一些頭痛的原因。現在，當我們回顧今年下半年時，我們與 Chris Calio 和 Neil Mitchill 進行了一些非常深入的審查，這些人出去並確保我們對供應商恢復計劃有清晰的認識。例如，我們預計套件填充率將在今年年底從大約 50% 上升到大約 80%。這是一個很大的收穫，但我們絕對必須這樣做。再次，我們正在部署資源。

As I said in our comments, we've got about [330] suppliers where we have people today working through all this. It is pick-and-shovel work, and it's also about trying to make sure they've got the right labor -- trained labor to get all this done. So it is a hill to climb in the back half of the year, and it is a challenge that we're going to have to take out in order to -- first of all, to meet our customer demands or our customer needs. I mean this is really about making sure we can deliver to our customers on time. And right now, we're suffering. I don't know, Neil, anything you want to add to that?

正如我在評論中所說，我們有大約 [330] 家供應商，我們今天有人員在其中解決所有這些問題。這是挑剔的工作，也是為了確保他們有合適的勞動力——訓練有素的勞動力來完成所有這些工作。因此，這是今年下半年要攀登的一座小山，這是我們必須克服的挑戰，以便首先滿足我們的客戶需求或我們的客戶需求。我的意思是，這實際上是為了確保我們能夠按時交付給客戶。而現在，我們正在受苦。我不知道，尼爾，你想補充什麼嗎？

Maybe I'll just put a little color around the kind of hill that we're looking at for the second half. At RMD, one of the big challenges is the material receipts. We talked in the first quarter about sort of COVID-induced labor issues in the supply chain. We expected that to get better in the second quarter, and it did not. And in fact, it got a little bit worse.

也許我會在下半場我們正在尋找的那種山丘周圍塗上一點顏色。在 RMD，最大的挑戰之一是材料收據。我們在第一季度談到了供應鏈中由 COVID 引起的勞工問題。我們預計第二季度情況會好轉，但事實並非如此。事實上，情況變得更糟了。

When I look at the second half of the year, RMD in particular, needs to see about a 25% volume step-up in dollars in the second half versus the first half. Obviously, our new outlook for RMD reflects that. And at RIS, material is also an important part of their products, and it's about a 15% step-up in the second half. So those are the metrics that we're monitoring on a daily and weekly basis.

當我回顧下半年時，尤其是 RMD，下半年的美元交易量需要比上半年增長 25% 左右。顯然，我們對 RMD 的新展望反映了這一點。而在RIS，材料也是他們產品的重要組成部分，下半年大約有15%的提升。所以這些是我們每天和每週監控的指標。

As it relates to their performance, the only other thing, Greg, I would add is productivity. So one of the big reasons, I'd say about half of the drop in the margin at RMD in the second quarter was related to lost productivity, the absence of productivity. And our profit outlook for the remainder of the year for RMD reflects us not catching up on that productivity given the kit fill rate issues that you talked about.

由於它與他們的表現有關，格雷格，我要補充的唯一另一件事是生產力。因此，我想說第二季度 RMD 利潤率下降的主要原因之一是與生產力損失有關，即缺乏生產力。鑑於您談到的套件填充率問題，我們對 RMD 今年剩餘時間的利潤前景反映了我們沒有趕上這種生產力。

If I can. I mean, going from 50% to 80%, is that even a realistic goal? I mean given -- I mean most of the points that you brought up about hiring people that fast turnaround stuff, right? I mean that's -- it's not something that's going to change on the dime. If you're...

如果我能。我的意思是，從 50% 到 80%，這甚至是一個現實的目標嗎？我的意思是給定的——我的意思是你提出的關於僱傭那些快速周轉的人的大部分觀點，對吧？我的意思是——它不會馬上改變。如果你是...

Let's be clear, Ron, this does not get solved this year. I think, again, getting to a kit fill rate of 80% is interesting. But literally, we need to be at 95% to be running at I would say, a normal pace. It is a lot of work. We've done a lot of, I would say, deep dive reviews on supply chain, going through supplier by supplier. That's why we've got people out at all of these different suppliers, making sure they're meeting their commitments. I think the only thing that's going to solve labor availability, I hate to say this, is a slowdown in the economy because right now, there just simply aren't enough people in the workforce for all of our suppliers.

讓我們明確一點，羅恩，這個問題今年沒有得到解決。我再次認為，達到 80% 的套件填充率很有趣。但從字面上看，我們需要達到 95% 才能以我想說的正常速度跑步。這是很多工作。我想說，我們已經對供應鏈進行了很多深入的審查，逐個供應商進行審查。這就是為什麼我們在所有這些不同的供應商處安排人員，確保他們履行承諾。我認為唯一能解決勞動力供應問題的事情，我不想這麼說，是經濟放緩，因為現在，我們所有的供應商都沒有足夠的勞動力。

And look, we pay a very, very competitive wage at RTX. But as you go down into the second, third and fourth tier of the supply chain, they are struggling to attract workers. But again, we've got people out there. I would tell you, as we've done these reviews, we have a path to get there. It is not an easy path. It is going to be a challenge throughout the year. And we'll see how we do -- we're tracking material receipts day by day, and it's a big hill.

看，我們在 RTX 支付的工資非常非常有競爭力。但當你進入供應鏈的第二、第三和第四層時，他們正在努力吸引工人。但同樣，我們有人在那裡。我會告訴你，因為我們已經完成了這些評論，我們有一條通往那裡的道路。這不是一條容易的路。這將是一整年的挑戰。我們會看看我們是怎麼做的——我們每天都在跟踪材料收據，這是一座大山。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Robert Stallard。

Greg, maybe to follow up on Ron's point there on supply chain and labor and the impact of inflation. What do you see as the -- your ability to pass this on you? Is there a cap to how much you can pass this up the chain? Or it's going to be different in aerospace versus defense? But is there a point where you have to start biting more of the bullet of these cost increases?

Greg，也許會跟進 Ron 關於供應鍊和勞動力以及通貨膨脹影響的觀點。你認為你有能力將它傳遞給你嗎？您可以將其傳遞到鏈條上是否有上限？或者它在航空航天和國防方面會有所不同？但是，是否有一點你必須開始更多地忍受這些成本增加的子彈？

As we look at it this year, we've got about $200 million of additional inflation headwind that we didn't anticipate when we started the year. So that $200 million, we've had to go out. We've done a number of initiatives looking to ways within the supply chain to eliminate that headwind. And so far, we've done a pretty good job of that. Keep in mind, that's on top of about $300 million of headwind from the Russia exit that we had earlier in the year. So I would tell you, the team has done a good job in managing cost and finding ways to overcome some of the headwinds that we've seen.

就今年而言，我們有大約 2 億美元的額外通脹逆風，這是我們在年初時沒有預料到的。所以這2億美元，我們不得不出去。我們已經採取了許多舉措來尋找供應鏈中消除這種不利因素的方法。到目前為止，我們在這方面做得很好。請記住，這是我們在今年早些時候從俄羅斯出口中遇到的約 3 億美元的逆風。所以我會告訴你，團隊在管理成本和尋找克服我們所看到的一些不利因素方面做得很好。

On the commercial side, again, the LTA coverage at 80% really provides you a lot of coverage with inflation. Now there's dead bands in there and excess inflation above some levels. Usually 6% or 7%, gets shared with the supplier. But for the most part, we've been able to manage through that.

在商業方面，80% 的 LTA 覆蓋率確實為您提供了大量的通貨膨脹覆蓋率。現在那裡存在死區，並且通貨膨脹率高於某些水平。通常 6% 或 7% 與供應商共享。但在大多數情況下，我們已經能夠做到這一點。

On the defense side, what we've seen -- again, we've seen labor inflation clearly. We've been able to put most of that, though, into our overhead rates, and that gets recovered in the normal contracting process. We've also seen, again, just inflation in the supply chain. But again, most -- well, I would say, at least 30% of the work that we have is cost type at RMD. And so you're able to pass that along.

在國防方面，我們所看到的——再一次，我們清楚地看到了勞動力通脹。不過，我們已經能夠將大部分費用計入我們的間接費用率，並且可以在正常的合同流程中恢復。我們也再次看到了供應鏈中的通貨膨脹。但同樣，大多數——嗯，我想說，我們所擁有的工作中至少有 30% 是 RMD 的成本類型。所以你可以把它傳遞下去。

And right now, again, I think one of the reasons we continue to push this on the RMD side is to make sure that we can overcome the inflationary impacts that we're seeing in the supply chain there. So I think, again, we need to learn the lessons of how we manage this from the commercial side. And going to more LTAs, I think, is absolutely essential if we're going to be able to have some kind of consistency in terms of supply chain going forward.

現在，再次，我認為我們繼續在 RMD 方面推動這一點的原因之一是確保我們能夠克服我們在供應鏈中看到的通貨膨脹影響。所以我認為，我們需要再次從商業方面吸取教訓。我認為，如果我們能夠在未來的供應鏈方面保持某種一致性，那麼進行更多的長期協議是絕對必要的。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Greg, could you maybe touch on the recovery on the GTF side of things? I think you had missed 70 in Q1. You were saying you were to about 180 -- up around [180] deliveries for the full year. Can you just talk about where you are there? And then also talk on the Pratt Canada side. I saw deliveries were down in the quarter. I think you had highlighted previously that titanium was a pretty big issue on the Pratt Canada side.

格雷格，你能談談 GTF 方面的複蘇嗎？我認為您在第一季度錯過了 70 次。您是說您的交付量約為 180 - 全年交付量約為 [180]。你能談談你在哪裡嗎？然後也談談普拉特加拿大方面。我看到本季度的交付量有所下降。我想你之前已經強調過鈦在 Pratt Canada 方面是一個相當大的問題。

Yes. Thanks, David. Let me -- just on the Pratt -- on the GTF side. I would tell you, right now, we continue to deliver GTFs behind schedule. And we will not catch up, as I think I said back in February, until the end of the year. And this is -- again, goes back to a single issue around structural castings. We're not holding up the line at Airbus. That's the good news with the 1100s. We're not holding up the line on the 1500s either on the C Series or I guess, the A220.

是的。謝謝，大衛。讓我——就在普拉特——在 GTF 方面。我會告訴你，現在，我們繼續落後於計劃交付 GTF。正如我在二月份所說的那樣，我們不會趕上，直到今年年底。這又回到了一個關於結構鑄件的問題。我們不會阻止空中客車公司的生產線。這是 1100 的好消息。我們不會在 C 系列或我猜的 A220 上阻止 1500 的生產線。

So we're managing this with the customers. We're managing this with the supply chain. And we really expect -- again, you're going to see a big step-up in the back half of the year on GTF deliveries. As you think about, you know, Pratt had a great first half. Second half, again, even with the recovery in commercial aftermarket, it's going to be tough because you got a lot more negative engine margin in the back half of the year. So again, that all goes into the calculus of the full year guidance.

所以我們正在與客戶一起管理這個問題。我們正在通過供應鏈進行管理。我們真的期待——再一次，你會在今年下半年看到 GTF 交付量的大幅增長。正如你所想，你知道，普拉特上半場表現出色。同樣，下半年，即使商業售後市場復甦，這也將是艱難的，因為您在下半年獲得了更多的負引擎利潤率。再說一次，這一切都進入了全年指導的演算。

But I would tell you right now, there is no other surprises on GTF beyond those structural castings. And there's always little things, David, but nothing huge. On the Pratt Canada side, you're exactly right on titanium. And again, this is primarily around the sanctions and our inability to continue to buy nor our desire to buy anything from Russia. So we have been working to identify second sources, qualify them. I will tell you we will impact production lines at a number of our customers. I'm sure you're going to hear that from them as well on the bizjet side. We're just not going to be able to make all the deliveries.

但我現在要告訴你，除了那些結構鑄件之外，GTF 沒有其他驚喜。總是有小事，大衛，但沒有什麼大不了的。在 Pratt Canada 方面，您在鈦上是完全正確的。再說一次，這主要是圍繞製裁和我們無法繼續購買或我們希望從俄羅斯購買任何東西。因此，我們一直在努力確定第二個來源，對它們進行鑑定。我會告訴你，我們將影響我們許多客戶的生產線。我敢肯定，在 bizjet 方面，您也會從他們那裡聽到這一點。我們只是無法完成所有的交付。

Now we're not talking about dozens and dozens of aircraft, but you're talking 5 to 10 airplanes at these customers that are going to be without engines because we don't have the titanium forgings that we had expected to get this year. So again, this will recover sometime in the middle of next year, but there's still a lot of work to do to get these suppliers requalified. And I think every single person in commercial aerospace is facing the same problems with Russian titanium. The fact is it wasn't a huge piece of the supply chain, but it was 20% plus of global titanium, and we're all going after those same resources.

現在我們不是在談論幾十架飛機，而是在這些客戶那裡談論 5 到 10 架沒有發動機的飛機，因為我們沒有預期今年會得到的鈦鍛件。再說一遍，這將在明年年中的某個時候恢復，但要讓這些供應商重新獲得資格，還有很多工作要做。而且我認為商業航空領域的每個人都面臨著與俄羅斯鈦相同的問題。事實是它不是供應鏈的重要組成部分，但它佔全球鈦的 20% 以上，我們都在追求同樣的資源。

Interestingly, we were in Farnborough last week. I had a good conversation with a number of our suppliers on this. People are stepping up. People understand this is a long-term business, and I think the suppliers of titanium see this as a big opportunity to take share. So we'll work through it, but it's not going to be without a little bit of pain to our customers.

有趣的是，我們上週在範堡羅。在這方面，我與我們的一些供應商進行了很好的交談。人們正在加緊努力。人們明白這是一項長期業務，我認為鈦的供應商認為這是一個分一杯羹的大好機會。所以我們會努力解決它，但這不會給我們的客戶帶來一點痛苦。

Greg, how far along are you in reallocating these titanium supply contracts? .

格雷格，你在重新分配這些鈦供應合同方面走了多遠？ .

Well, we're probably -- in terms of identifying the sources and the contracts, I would say, we're almost complete. The issue simply is getting the parts qualified. You've got to go through a first article. You got to go through the metallurgical analysis. You got to make sure that the composition of material is exactly the same as what it was prior. And then you got to get the parts certified. So that's the part that takes time. It's not actually identifying the suppliers. We've done that. We've got everything lined up.

好吧，我們可能 - 在確定來源和合同方面，我想說，我們幾乎完成了。問題只是讓零件合格。你必須通過第一篇文章。你必須通過冶金分析。你必須確保材料的成分與之前的完全一樣。然後你必須獲得零件認證。所以這是需要時間的部分。它實際上並沒有識別供應商。我們已經做到了。我們已經把所有東西都排好了。

The same thing on heat exchangers. Recall, we made a number of different commercial heat exchangers in -- at our joint venture Nauka in Moscow. All that work was discontinued on the 27th of February, and we are still working through the requalification of heat exchangers. And that's 787s, that's 777s, that's Embraer 170. There's a number of issues that are now -- we've got coverage for titanium for most of those or for heat exchangers through the end of the year, and we're working through the requal there. But we're not done yet. There's a lot of work to do.

熱交換器也是如此。回想一下，我們在莫斯科的合資企業 Nauka 製造了許多不同的商用熱交換器。所有這些工作於 2 月 27 日停止，我們仍在對熱交換器進行重新認證。那是 787s，那是 777s，那是 Embraer 170。現在有很多問題——我們已經為大多數這些產品或熱交換器提供了鈦的覆蓋範圍，直到今年年底，我們正在努力解決在那里平等。但我們還沒有完成。有很多工作要做。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Obviously, what's happening with supply chain, labor inflation is -- it's unprecedented and hard to manage and hard to forecast. But I'm confused by the pace of deterioration or the narrow window in which the defense forecast have changed because unprecedented and hard to manage and hard to forecast. But I'm confused by the pace of deterioration or the narrow window in which the defense forecast have changed because the variances -- the negative variances are pretty large.

顯然，供應鍊和勞動力通脹正在發生的事情——這是前所未有的、難以管理和難以預測的。但我對惡化的速度或國防預測發生變化的狹窄窗口感到困惑，因為史無前例、難以管理和難以預測。但是我對惡化的速度或防守預測發生變化的狹窄窗口感到困惑，因為差異 - 負差異非常大。

And if I go back to just the first quarter call in April, you're talking about supply chain, labor inflation repeatedly, the whole world was. And so you were giving guidance just 3 months ago and a month into the quarter. And so have supply chain, labor, inflation deteriorated that much in just 2 to 3 months' time? Or is it that it's just that difficult to forecast? And if it's the latter, if I go back to this discussion of the second half inflection, it's still really hard to stare at this RMD guidance and see how you can have that much of an acceleration. Maybe you could spend some time on the specific programs that drive that to get us more comfortable.

如果我回到 4 月份的第一季度電話會議，你會反復談論供應鏈、勞動力通脹，整個世界都是如此。所以你在 3 個月前和本季度一個月前給出了指導。那麼供應鏈、勞動力、通貨膨脹在短短 2 到 3 個月的時間裡惡化了這麼多嗎？還是它就這麼難以預測？如果是後者，如果我回到關於下半年拐點的討論，仍然很難盯著這個 RMD 指導，看看你如何能有這麼大的加速。也許你可以花一些時間在特定的程序上，讓我們更舒服。

Yes. Noah, that is a great point. I would tell you, when we exited the first quarter, and we knew that we had seen supply chain challenges, specifically at RMD, and the thought was, and which turned out to be, of course, incorrect, was that most of the supply chain challenges were related to Omicron, and that's why we had problems in December or in January, but we really expect it as COVID receded into the background that we would see a quick recovery in the supply chain. And in fact, that was wrong.

是的。諾亞，這是一個很好的觀點。我會告訴你，當我們退出第一季度時，我們知道我們已經看到了供應鏈挑戰，特別是在 RMD，我們的想法是，而且結果證明是，當然，不正確的是，大部分供應鏈挑戰與 Omicron 相關，這就是為什麼我們在 12 月或 1 月遇到問題的原因，但我們真的希望隨著 COVID 退到背景中，我們會看到供應鏈快速恢復。事實上，這是錯誤的。

The labor challenges that we continue to see have not abated. And again, I think that is the challenge, and that's the reason we continue to struggle in supply chain. Inflation is a challenge, but we can measure it, we can work to overcome it. Not having enough people in the supply chain, that has proven to be much more difficult. And so again, we have gone through this, I would tell you, program by program, line item by line item in terms of what's in our MRP schedule. And there are some go-gets out there. But we have commitments from suppliers to hit these numbers. And I think that's the -- that is the challenge is making sure that our suppliers continue to deliver on the recovery plans that they have laid out for us. I don't know, Neil, anything you want to...

我們繼續看到的勞工挑戰並沒有減弱。再說一次，我認為這是挑戰，這就是我們繼續在供應鏈中掙扎的原因。通貨膨脹是一個挑戰，但我們可以衡量它，我們可以努力克服它。在供應鏈中沒有足夠的人，這已被證明要困難得多。再說一次，我們已經經歷了這個，我會告訴你，一個項目一個項目，一個項目一個項目，就我們 MRP 計劃中的內容而言。並且有一些去那裡。但我們有供應商承諾達到這些數字。我認為這就是挑戰——確保我們的供應商繼續履行他們為我們制定的恢復計劃。我不知道，尼爾，你想要什麼...

Yes, 2 points because there's been a compounding impact that we've seen in the second quarter and expect to persist. And one is with the slowdown of receipts of material, we got a different mix of output during the quarter, more development program focused, and our lower margin production contracts were the ones that received the materials. So getting back to that fill rate conversation, you had the stuff that was coming in not being on the more profitable programs.

是的，2 分，因為我們在第二季度已經看到了複合影響，並且預計會持續存在。一個是材料接收放緩，我們在本季度獲得了不同的產出組合，更多的開發計劃集中，我們的低利潤生產合同是接收材料的合同。所以回到填充率對話，你有一些東西沒有出現在更有利可圖的計劃中。

The second piece of that, the knockdown effect of that is the absence of labor productivity in the shops. And so with the fill rates being down in that 50% range, we just did not get the benefit of rolling through labor efficiencies, which is the primary driver of the EAC benefits we typically see in a quarter and RMD has seen. Now in the second half, we expect some, not all of that, to recover.

第二部分，它的擊倒效應是商店缺乏勞動生產率。因此，隨著填充率下降到 50% 的範圍內，我們只是沒有從勞動力效率的滾動中受益，這是我們通常在一個季度看到的 EAC 收益的主要驅動力，而 RMD 已經看到了。現在在下半年，我們預計會恢復一些，而不是全部。

And so it is a tough hill in the second half. I think we've got the right resources, engage with suppliers and within the business and on the shop floors. But we are looking at this every day, and we do need to see a market improvement in productivity in the shops to drive that P&L benefit in the second half of the year.

所以下半場是一座艱難的山坡。我認為我們擁有合適的資源，與供應商、企業內部和車間接觸。但我們每天都在關注這一點，我們確實需要看到商店生產力的市場提高，以推動下半年的損益收益。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Okay. I could I guess that was me. When we think about the U.S. airlines, just pushing gears a little bit, they're finally seeing pricing tailwinds and capacity constraints. So can you talk a little bit about your aftermarket business? Are you seeing different actions from the airlines? How is pricing trending relative to history? And then can you maybe remind us of your aftermarket guidance expectations for the year with long-haul international expectations for the second half?

好的。我猜那是我。當我們想到美國航空公司時，只是稍微推動一下，他們終於看到了定價順風和運力限制。那麼您能談談您的售後市場業務嗎？您是否看到航空公司採取了不同的行動？相對於歷史的定價趨勢如何？然後您能否提醒我們您對今年的售後市場指導預期以及對下半年的長期國際預期？

Sure. Let me start with some of the outlook pieces here. First, at Collins, we now expect aftermarket to be up between 20% and 25% year-over-year. So we're at the halfway mark of the year. I think it's important. I've been talking a lot about the uncertainty around the recovery, and we're pleased to see that improving, obviously, and holding. I think Greg will probably want to add a couple of comments here as well.

當然。讓我從這裡的一些展望文章開始。首先，在柯林斯，我們現在預計售後市場將同比增長 20% 至 25%。所以我們在今年的一半。我認為這很重要。我一直在談論圍繞復甦的不確定性，我們很高興看到這種情況明顯改善並保持不變。我認為 Greg 可能也想在這裡添加一些評論。

But clearly, the demand for air travel is very strong. We're seeing some encouragement in terms of the widebody routes opening up as well and expect that to continue in the second half. And on the Pratt side, we now see the aftermarket up year-over-year 25%. So really good performance there. Our customers are giving us good line of sight to shop visit inductions. We're a little over 40% towards our plan for the year in terms of V2500 shop visits. There's still some work to be done in the back half of the year. As you know, China was closed down for the better part of the second quarter, and that is a piece of the back half growth. But we feel pretty confident. We've got a good dialogue with our customers, good line of sight to the third quarter in particular, and I expect that to continue in the fourth quarter.

但顯然，航空旅行的需求非常強勁。我們在寬體航線開放方面也看到了一些鼓舞，預計下半年這種情況會繼續下去。在普拉特方面，我們現在看到售後市場同比增長 25%。所以那裡的表現真的很好。我們的客戶為我們提供了良好的視線以進行商店參觀誘導。就 V2500 商店訪問而言，我們今年的計劃略高於 40%。下半年還有一些工作要做。如您所知，中國在第二季度的大部分時間都處於關閉狀態，這是後半段增長的一部分。但我們感到非常有信心。我們與客戶進行了良好的對話，尤其是對第三季度的良好視線，我預計這種情況將在第四季度繼續。

Yes, Sheila, all I would say is that it's an interesting time for the commercial aerospace business. Demand is -- unprecedented is the wrong word. I would say the trajectory of the recovery certainly, I think, caught people by surprise in terms of the desire to travel again. And you can tell every time you go to an airport today the long lines that we have.

是的，希拉，我只想說，對於商業航空業來說，這是一個有趣的時期。需求是——史無前例是錯誤的詞。我會說，復甦的軌跡肯定讓人們對再次旅行的願望感到驚訝。今天，您每次去機場時都可以說出我們排長隊的情況。

And the problem, of course, is it's not just pilot shortages, but it's baggage handlers, it's TSA agents, it's everybody that supports commercial airlines. They're struggling with the same labor availability that we talked about in the supply chain. So the recovery is very strong. Pricing, as you know, for the airlines is very strong. Fuel prices, Jet A has doubled in price in the last year. but it's come off of its highs a couple of months ago. So I think, again, the airlines financially are doing very well. And the biggest concern they have is aircraft availability. And so we're going to see very strong inductions into the shop. We've seen very strong orders in our aftermarket and getting a little bit stronger than we had anticipated going into the second quarter.

當然，問題不僅在於飛行員短缺，還在於行李搬運工、TSA 代理人，以及支持商業航空公司的所有人。他們正在與我們在供應鏈中談到的相同勞動力可用性作鬥爭。所以復蘇非常強勁。如您所知，航空公司的定價非常強勁。燃油價格，Jet A 的價格在去年翻了一番。但它已經從幾個月前的高點回落。所以我再次認為，航空公司的財務狀況非常好。他們最大的擔憂是飛機的可用性。因此，我們將看到對商店的強烈感應。我們在售後市場看到了非常強勁的訂單，並且比我們在第二季度的預期要強一些。

And we don't think there's anything that changes that trajectory in the back half of the year. Absent a huge resurgence in COVID, I think again, people want to travel. China will reopen at some point, which we have seen a quick snapback in demand as soon as China reopens. So I think it's all pointing in a positive direction on commercial aero for the back half of the year and into 2023. So I think, again, we're well along the recovery path and no change in trajectory.

而且我們認為在今年下半年沒有任何事情可以改變這一軌跡。我再次認為，在 COVID 沒有大規模復甦的情況下，人們想要旅行。中國將在某個時候重新開放，一旦中國重新開放，我們已經看到需求迅速回升。所以我認為這一切都指向今年下半年和 2023 年商業航空的積極方向。所以我認為，我們再次沿著復甦的道路前進，軌跡沒有改變。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Greg, if I could just come back to kind of the differences between commercial aerospace or your aerospace business, how well it's performing but dealing with a lot of the same probably supply chain that overlaps with defense. Maybe if you just call out maybe some of the differences? Because I think a lot of it is struggling on the defense side, it really seems very complex and trying to get back to kind of the trajectory versus where your commercial aerospace business is. Probably dealing with a lot of the same challenges, but at the same time is performing really well. I mean, maybe just call out a couple of differences, that would be helpful.

格雷格，如果我能回到商業航空航天或您的航空航天業務之間的差異，它的表現如何，但處理許多可能與國防重疊的相同供應鏈。也許如果你只是說出一些不同之處？因為我認為其中很多都在國防方面苦苦掙扎，它看起來真的很複雜，並試圖回到與你的商業航空業務所在的軌道相比。可能要處理很多相同的挑戰，但同時表現得非常好。我的意思是，也許只是指出一些差異，這會有所幫助。

Yes. Look, one of the -- one of the benefits on the commercial side is we're not handicapped with government contracting regulations. And to that end, the MMS, material management system, which dictates how much inventory we can drive in, how soon we can place things on order, really constrains our ability to be flexible on the defense side.

是的。看，商業方面的好處之一是我們不受政府合同規定的限制。為此，MMS，材料管理系統，它決定了我們可以驅動多少庫存，我們可以多快下訂單，這確實限制了我們在防守端的靈活性。

I would tell you the reason that we have been able to be successful on the commercial side is we've driven a lot of inventory in. You look at the inventory. It's up about $1 billion since the beginning of the year. It's up about $400 million in the second quarter, primarily on the commercial side to meet the higher demand. So we have been driving material in faster. We're not constrained on the commercial side by the MMS system. And I think, again, that is a lesson learned for us.

我會告訴你我們能夠在商業方面取得成功的原因是我們已經推動了大量的庫存。你看看庫存。自今年年初以來，它增加了約 10 億美元。第二季度增加了約 4 億美元，主要是在商業方面，以滿足更高的需求。所以我們一直在更快地推動材料。我們在商業方面不受 MMS 系統的限制。我再次認為，這對我們來說是一個教訓。

And what we told the team in defense is bring it in. We don't have to build it. We had to bring in more inventory sooner rather than within normal lead times, that's okay. So we're going to go out and be a little more aggressive with inventory. We're not talking billions of dollars, but the fact is we need to drive inventory in faster and give some surety of supply or surety of demand rather to our supply chain, such as they continue to drive material in.

我們在防守端告訴球隊的是把它帶進來。我們不必建造它。我們必須盡快引入更多庫存，而不是在正常的交貨時間內，這沒關係。因此，我們將走出去，對庫存採取更積極的態度。我們不是在談論數十億美元，但事實是我們需要更快地推動庫存，並為我們的供應鏈提供一定的供應保證或需求保證，例如他們繼續推動材料進入。

And look, some of the suppliers we know are not going to get better this year. Rocket motors, we've talked about that continually for over a year. We know that's a recovery that stretches probably into 2024. But that's only a piece of the problem. I mean, it's again trying to make sure we've got the right chips and microelectronics and really hand-to-mouth there. But again, we have the tools. And again, the folks here at the corporate office and supply chain are off working with the folks on the defense side to help overcome some of these challenges, but it's not easy.

看，我們知道的一些供應商今年不會變得更好。火箭發動機，我們已經討論了一年多。我們知道，這種複蘇可能會持續到 2024 年。但這只是問題的一部分。我的意思是，它再次試圖確保我們擁有正確的芯片和微電子產品，並且在那裡真正做到手到嘴。但同樣，我們有工具。再說一次，公司辦公室和供應鏈的人們正在與國防方面的人們一起工作，以幫助克服其中的一些挑戰，但這並不容易。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn of Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Greg, I wanted to go back to the discussion on inflation and labor constraints and ask what the longer-term opportunity is to apply automation across the 4 businesses to mitigate these issues. Does this require brand-new programs or brand-new facilities to implement? And more specifically with Asheville. If it seems that that's going to be a tough labor situation, it's an inherently labor-intensive business casting, and you don't really have an available labor pool there that's trained in casting. So how do you staff that plant specifically? Or will it be more automated?

格雷格，我想回到關於通貨膨脹和勞動力限制的討論，並詢問在 4 家企業中應用自動化來緩解這些問題的長期機會是什麼。這是否需要全新的計劃或全新的設施來實施？更具體地說，與阿什維爾有關。如果看起來這將是一個艱難的勞動力情況，那是一個固有的勞動密集型業務鑄造，你真的沒有一個可用的勞動力庫，在那裡接受過鑄造培訓。那麼，您如何專門為該工廠配備人員？還是會更加自動化？

Well, look, it's -- I would tell you, factory automation is something that we have been doing for a number of years. I think about the IBR facility we have at Pratt Canada that went online more than 5 years ago, completely lights out manufacturing. So we have been making investments, I'll call it, an industry 4.0 across all of our factories. We've got the new project down in Dallas, the new factory, automated factory that's going in down there. You've got Asheville.

好吧，看，這是 - 我會告訴你，工廠自動化是我們多年來一直在做的事情。我想起我們在 Pratt Canada 擁有的 IBR 設施，它在 5 年前上線，完全關閉了製造業。所以我們一直在進行投資，我稱之為工業 4.0，覆蓋我們所有的工廠。我們在達拉斯建立了新項目，新工廠，自動化工廠正在那裡進行。你有阿什維爾。

And Asheville, while it is a large facility, the actual number of employees is only I think about 800 that we're going to be hiring, and we have been actively hiring them today to train them for the opening, which has happened sometime I think at the end of next year. So look, it will be a challenge.

還有阿什維爾，雖然它是一個大型設施，但我認為我們將要招聘的實際員工人數只有 800 人左右，而且我們今天一直在積極招聘他們，為開業培訓他們，這發生在我的某個時候想明年年底。所以看，這將是一個挑戰。

But I would tell you, again, if you work at Pratt & Whitney, work at Collins or anywhere we across the RTX portfolio, we pay very good wages. But labor cost is a very -- direct labor cost is a very small piece of our cost of sales. The bigger challenge I would tell you is on the engineering front. And again, that's -- it's just trying to find enough qualified engineers with clearances to drive the revenue growth that we have been expecting on all of these programs that we've signed up for.

但我要再次告訴你，如果你在 Pratt & Whitney、Collins 或我們整個 RTX 投資組合的任何地方工作，我們會支付非常高的工資。但是人工成本是非常直接的人工成本，在我們的銷售成本中只佔很小的一部分。我要告訴你的更大的挑戰是在工程方面。再說一遍，這只是試圖找到足夠多的合格工程師並獲得許可，以推動我們對我們已簽署的所有這些計劃的預期收入增長。

So inflation is a problem, but we can deal with the inflation. The fact, labor shortages, we can deal with it within our own 4 walls because we've got really good pay, really good competitive benefits. People come to Raytheon because of our mission. And I think that's a differentiator that we have in the marketplace. And the hope, of course, is as we see the economy slow down here in the coming months and perhaps year, that we'll have the opportunity to continue to drive more folks into both the shop floor as well as into our offices on these programs.

所以通貨膨脹是一個問題，但我們可以應對通貨膨脹。事實上，勞動力短缺，我們可以在我們自己的 4 道牆內解決它，因為我們有非常好的薪酬，非常好的競爭優勢。人們來到雷神公司是因為我們的使命。我認為這是我們在市場上的差異化因素。當然，我們希望在未來幾個月甚至一年內看到這裡的經濟放緩，我們將有機會繼續將更多的人帶入車間以及我們在這些地方的辦公室程式。

As far as automation, we're going to continue to drive automation. It's what we do to drive cost reduction, that we're encouraging suppliers to do the same thing. But it's all contemplated, I think, in the kind of $2.5 billion a year that we spend on CapEx, which is not an insignificant amount.

就自動化而言，我們將繼續推動自動化。這是我們為降低成本所做的事情，我們鼓勵供應商做同樣的事情。但我認為，這一切都在我們每年在資本支出上花費的 25 億美元中，這不是一個微不足道的數額。

Greg, just one more thing on Asheville. You mentioned structural castings earlier. We know that it's been a long pole in the tent here. If I remember correctly, Asheville is supposed to be for airfoils, but might you do structural -- large structures there just to address this single supplier problem.

格雷格，阿什維爾還有一件事。您之前提到了結構鑄件。我們知道這裡的帳篷裡有一根長桿。如果我沒記錯的話，阿什維爾應該是用於機翼的，但是您是否可以在那裡進行結構性的大型結構，以解決這個單一供應商的問題。

Yes. Look, we'll take airfoils first. And I think, again, whether we decide later on to go up the supply chain there, that's a decision in another relatively large investment. The fact is structural castings require huge capital and I'd tell you a workforce that is highly skilled. We're going to start with airfoils. It will take us several years to get up to full run rate production there, and then we'll see where we go from there. But really no plans to go beyond structural -- I'm sorry, to go beyond the airfoils at this point.

是的。看，我們將首先採取翼型。而且我再次認為，我們是否決定稍後在供應鏈上升級，這是另一項相對較大投資的決定。事實上，結構鑄件需要巨額資金，我會告訴你一支技術精湛的勞動力。我們將從翼型開始。我們需要幾年的時間才能在那里達到全速生產，然後我們會看看我們從那裡去哪裡。但實際上沒有超越結構的計劃——對不起，在這一點上超越翼型。

Our final question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Yes. Thanks for all the color on the defense situation. Maybe just a quick final question that's a little more thematic. Greg, how do you think about the role of the company in China over time and the pace at which maybe the U.S. and China are decoupling on aerospace? We see the 737 MAX because it seems to be stuck in some political limbo right now in China, Collins as a supplier on the C919. How fast do you see these 2 kinds of aviation worlds is splitting up? Or is that not the right way to think about it? How do you think about that these days?

是的。感謝所有關於防守情況的顏色。也許只是一個更主題的快速最後一個問題。 Greg，您如何看待公司在中國的長期作用以及美國和中國在航空航天領域脫鉤的速度？我們看到 737 MAX 是因為它目前在中國似乎陷入了某種政治困境，柯林斯作為 C919 的供應商。你認為這兩種航空世界分裂的速度有多快？或者這不是正確的思考方式？這些天你怎麼看？

So look, China remains an incredibly large market for commercial aerospace, is an incredibly important market for commercial aerospace growth over the coming decades. Obviously, the Chinese have a desire to have indigenous aircraft. That's the C919, maybe the C929 at some point. But the fact is, we think we're going to have -- we will continue to work with our partners there. We'll continue to utilize supply chain out of China that we have thousands and thousands of parts that come out of China for our commercial aerospace, specifically at Collins but also some for Pratt Canada and some for Pratt & Whitney.

所以看，中國仍然是一個非常大的商業航空市場，是未來幾十年商業航空發展的一個非常重要的市場。顯然，中國人渴望擁有國產飛機。那是C919，也許是C929。但事實是，我們認為我們將擁有 - 我們將繼續與我們的合作夥伴合作。我們將繼續利用中國以外的供應鏈，我們有成千上萬的零件來自中國，用於我們的商業航空航天，特別是在柯林斯，還有一些用於 Pratt Canada，一些用於 Pratt & Whitney。

So look, we're going to continue to work with the Chinese. At the same time, I think we understand the geopolitical realities, and we're also making sure that we have assured supply chain. So we're looking to make sure we have second sources outside of China in the case that the geopolitical tensions rise to the point where we're not able to access that supply chain there. That's a process that's been ongoing for well over 1.5 years and will continue for the next couple of years. Again, thousands of part numbers to do that.

所以看，我們將繼續與中國人合作。同時，我認為我們了解地緣政治現實，我們也在確保我們有保證的供應鏈。因此，我們正在尋求確保我們在中國以外有第二個來源，以防地緣政治緊張局勢升級到我們無法進入那裡的供應鏈的地步。這一過程已經持續了 1.5 年多，並將在接下來的幾年中持續下去。同樣，成千上萬的零件號可以做到這一點。

But again, we don't see a decoupling of China from the world the way we've seen a decoupling of Russia from the world after the invasion of Ukraine. Again, it's -- the economy of Russia, relatively small, China is second largest economy in the world. The decoupling between China and the U.S., I think, is impractical and almost impossible to imagine the consequences on the U.S. consumer, the U.S. economy, if we really try to decouple.

但同樣，我們沒有看到中國與世界脫鉤，就像我們看到俄羅斯在入侵烏克蘭後與世界脫鉤一樣。再說一遍，俄羅斯的經濟規模相對較小，中國是世界第二大經濟體。我認為，中美脫鉤是不切實際的，如果我們真的試圖脫鉤，對美國消費者和美國經濟的影響幾乎是不可想像的。

So again, the hope here is we find a path forward where we can work together at the same time understanding that we have competing interests. But at the same time, we are retaining a very large presence in China for the commercial aerospace, obviously, not on the defense side. But we understand what we need to do to protect our customers long term.

再說一次，這裡的希望是我們找到一條前進的道路，我們可以在合作的同時了解我們有相互競爭的利益。但與此同時，我們在中國為商業航空航天保留了非常大的存在，顯然，不是在國防方面。但我們了解我們需要做些什麼來長期保護我們的客戶。

Okay. So Latif, thank you very much. Appreciate everybody listening in today. Jennifer and team, of course, will be available all day to take your calls and questions, and look forward to seeing you guys sometime early in the fall.

好的。所以拉蒂夫，非常感謝你。感謝今天收聽的每一個人。當然，詹妮弗和他的團隊將全天接聽您的電話和問題，並期待在秋季初的某個時候見到你們。

This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。