恩智浦 (NXPI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. This is Jeff Palmer from NXP. Thank you, and welcome to the NXP Semiconductors third-quarter earnings call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website. Today's call will include forward-looking statements that invoke risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

大家好。我是恩智浦的傑夫·帕爾默。謝謝，歡迎參加恩智浦半導體第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是恩智浦總裁兼執行長 Kurt Sievers。和我們的財務長比爾貝茨 (Bill Betz)。今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將可在我們的公司網站上重播。今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致恩智浦的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.

這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於有關宏觀經濟對我們經營所在的特定終端市場的影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2024 年第四季度財務業績的預期的聲明。沒有義務公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述。有關前瞻性陳述的完整揭露，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

Additionally, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third-quarter 2024 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

此外，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標主要由管理階層認為與恩智浦的基本核心營運績效不直接相關的離散事件所驅動。根據G 條例，恩智浦在2024 年第三季財報新聞稿中提供了非GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP 指標的調節表，該新聞稿將透過8-K 表格提交給SEC，並可在恩智浦網站上取得在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我想把電話轉給庫爾特。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call this morning. Beginning with quarter three, NXP delivered quarterly revenue of $3.25 billion, in line with our overall guidance of down 5% year-on-year and up 4% sequentially. While we experienced some strength against our expectations in the communication infrastructure, mobile and automotive end markets. We were confronted with increasing macro-related weakness in the industrial and IoT market.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。我們感謝您今天早上加入我們的電話會議。從第三季開始，恩智浦季度營收為 32.5 億美元，符合我們年減 5%、季增 4% 的整體指引。雖然我們在通訊基礎設施、行動和汽車終端市場上經歷了一些超出我們預期的優勢。我們面臨著工業和物聯網市場與宏觀相關的日益疲軟的問題。

At the total company level, sequential growth was led by China. Non-GAAP operating margin in quarter three was 35.5%, 50 basis points above the year-ago period and 40 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Year-on-year operating profit performance was due to a combination of lower revenue and gross profit, partially offset by favorable operating expenses.

在整個公司層面，環比成長由中國引領。第三季的非 GAAP 營業利益率為 35.5%，比去年同期高 50 個基點，比我們指引的中點高出 40 個基點。營業利潤同比表現歸因於收入和毛利的下降，但部分被有利的營業費用所抵消。

Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets. In automotive, revenue was $1.83 billion, down 3% versus the year-ago period, and in line with our guidance range. The inventory digestion at our main Tier 1 customers continues to occur with further pressure coming from slowing European and North American car OEM and demand. At the same time, we experienced healthy growth in the China and Asia-Pacific automotive end markets.

現在讓我談談我們重點終端市場的具體趨勢。汽車領域的收入為 18.3 億美元，比去年同期下降 3%，符合我們的指導範圍。我們的主要一級客戶的庫存消化仍在繼續，歐洲和北美汽車原始設備製造商和需求放緩帶來了進一步的壓力。同時，我們在中國和亞太汽車終端市場實現了健康成長。

Turning to Industrial and IoT, revenue was $563 million, down 7% versus the year-ago period and below our guidance range. During the quarter, we experienced weaker-than-expected trends globally. In mobile, revenue was $407 million, up 8% versus the year-ago period and at the high end of our guidance range in what is normally a seasonally strong period.

工業和物聯網方面，營收為 5.63 億美元，比去年同期下降 7%，低於我們的指導範圍。本季度，我們的全球趨勢弱於預期。在行動領域，營收為 4.07 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%，在通常季節性強勁的時期處於我們指導範圍的高端。

In Communication Infrastructure and Other, revenue was $451 million, down 19% year-on-year and above the high end of our guidance as several RFID programs ramped stronger than originally anticipated. From a channel perspective, distribution inventory was 1.9 months, up from the 1.7 months in quarter two, following our attempts to stage dedicated mass market product in the channel. While at the same time, sell-through to distribution service customers in the European and American markets was somewhat slower.

在通訊基礎設施及其他領域，收入為 4.51 億美元，年減 19%，高於我們指導的上限，因為幾個 RFID 項目的成長超出了最初的預期。從通路角度來看，在我們嘗試在通路中推出專門的大眾市場產品後，分銷庫存為 1.9 個月，高於第二季的 1.7 個月。同時，歐美市場的分銷服務客戶的銷售速度則放緩。

Now let me turn to our expectations for quarter four 2024. We are guiding quarter four revenue to $3.1 billion, down about 9% versus the fourth quarter of 2023 and down about 5% sequentially. Relative to our earlier expectations, we are taking a more conservative stance for quarter four.

現在讓我談談我們對 2024 年第四季的預期。相對於我們先前的預期，我們對第四季採取更保守的立場。

Hence, we will also aim to hold channel inventory approximately flat sequentially at 1.9 months or about 8 weeks. This is because we began to see increasing weakness in the industrial and IoT market already during quarter three, as well as an unexpected contraction in manufacturing PMI below 50% across all regions except China.

因此，我們也將目標是將通路庫存保持在 1.9 個月或約 8 週的環比持平狀態。這是因為我們在第三季就開始看到工業和物聯網市場日益疲軟，以及中國以外的所有地區製造業 PMI 意外收縮至 50% 以下。

Furthermore, we find ourselves exposed to a broad slowdown of European and North American automotive OEM outlooks for 2024, only partially compensated by the aforementioned strength in China automotive. This leads to more stringent inventory reductions at our Tier 1 customers below the natural end demand. So at the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business during quarter four.

此外，我們發現歐洲和北美汽車原始設備製造商 2024 年前景普遍放緩，但上述中國汽車市場的強勁勢頭僅部分彌補了這一影響。這導致我們的一級客戶的庫存減少得更加嚴格，低於自然最終需求。因此，在中期，我們預計第四季度我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。

Automotive is anticipated to be down in the high single-digit percent range versus quarter three -- excuse me, versus quarter four '23 and down in the mid-single-digit percent range versus quarter three '24. Industrial and IoT is expected to be down by 20% versus quarter four '23 and down in the mid-single-digit percent range sequentially.

預計汽車產業與第三季相比將出現高個位數百分比下降——對不起，與23 年第四季相比，汽車產業預計將出現高個位數百分比下降，與24 年第三季相比，汽車產業預計將在中個位數百分比範圍內下降。工業和物聯網預計將比 2023 年第四季下降 20%，並連續下降在中個位數百分比範圍內。

Mobile is expected to be down in the low single-digit percent range, both versus quarter four '23 and sequentially. Finally, communication infrastructure and other is expected to be down in the mid-single-digit percent range, both versus quarter four '23 and sequentially.

與 2023 年第四季及上一季相比，行動業務預計將下降在個位數百分比範圍內。最後，與 2023 年第四季及上一季相比，通訊基礎設施和其他基礎設施預計將下降中個位數百分比。

In summary, our guidance for the fourth quarter reflects broader macro weakness in Europe and North America, only partially compensated by strength in China. The cyclical rebound, which we had anticipated for the second half of '24 has not materialized.

總而言之，我們對第四季度的指導反映了歐洲和北美更廣泛的宏觀疲軟，僅部分被中國的強勁所彌補。我們預計 24 年下半年的周期性反彈並未實現。

The soft and uncertain demand environment appears to be causing the Tier 1 customers to take a very cautious stance on their inventory positions. These trends are consistent with the multiple profit warnings issued by major Western automotive OEMs as well as the contracting global manufacturing PMI trends, which are weighing on demands in the Industrial and IoT market.

疲軟且不確定的需求環境似乎導致一級客戶對其庫存狀況採取非常謹慎的立場。這些趨勢與西方主要汽車原始設備製造商發布的多次利潤預警以及全球製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）的收縮趨勢一致，這些都對工業和物聯網市場的需求造成壓力。

The net impact to NXP are lower-than-expected order trends from our direct customers and distribution partners. Notwithstanding this more challenging short-term demand environment, we are very confident we have deployed a long-term winning strategy focusing our investments to succeed in the fastest-growing secular end markets of automotive and industrial IoT.

對恩智浦的淨影響是我們的直接客戶和分銷合作夥伴的訂單趨勢低於預期。儘管短期需求環境更具挑戰性，但我們非常有信心已經部署了長期制勝策略，並專注於投資以在成長最快的汽車和工業物聯網長期終端市場中取得成功。

In the short term, we will maniacally focus on managing what is in our control while making the right decisions for the long-term health of the business. This will enable NXP to drive resilient profitability and earnings even in an uncertain demand environment.

短期內，我們將瘋狂地專注於管理我們控制範圍內的事情，同時為業務的長期健康做出正確的決策。這將使恩智浦即使在不確定的需求環境下也能提高獲利能力和收益。

And now I would like to pass the call to Bill for a review of our financial performance. Bill?

現在我想將電話轉達給比爾，要求他審查我們的財務表現。帳單？

Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q3 and provided our revenue outlook for Q4, I will move to the financial highlights. Overall, our Q3 financial performance was good. Revenue was in line. Non-GAAP gross margin was near the low end of our guidance, more than offset by favorable operating expenses resulting in better operating profit.

謝謝庫爾特，今天電話會議的大家早安。由於庫爾特已經介紹了第三季收入的驅動因素並提供了我們第四季度的收入前景，我將轉向財務亮點。整體而言，我們第三季的財務表現良好。收入符合預期。非公認會計原則毛利率接近我們指導的低端，但被有利的營運費用所抵消，從而帶來了更好的營運利潤。

Turning to Q3 specifics. Total revenue was $3.25 billion, down 5% year-on-year. We generated $1.89 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 58.2%, down 30 basis points year-on-year and 30 basis points below the midpoint of our guidance range due to product mix.

轉向第三季的具體情況。總收入為32.5億美元，較去年同期下降5%。我們的非 GAAP 毛利為 18.9 億美元，非 GAAP 毛利率為 58.2%，比去年同期下降 30 個基點，由於產品組合的原因，比我們指導範圍的中點低 30 個基點。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $738 million or 22.7% of revenue, down $65 million year-on-year, although this was $22 million below the midpoint of our guidance due to lower variable compensation, project spend and payroll. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.15 billion; and non-GAAP operating margin was 35.5%, up 50 basis points year-on-year and 40 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance.

非 GAAP 營運支出總額為 7.38 億美元，佔收入的 22.7%，年減 6,500 萬美元，儘管由於可變薪酬、項目支出和工資下降，這一數字比我們指導的中點低 2,200 萬美元。從總營業利潤來看，非 GAAP 營業利潤為 11.5 億美元；非 GAAP 營運利潤率為 35.5%，年成長 50 個基點，比我們指引的中點高出 40 個基點。

Non-GAAP interest expenses was $70 million, with taxes for ongoing operations of $182 million or a 16.8% non-GAAP effective tax rate. Noncontrolling interest was $11 million and stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $115 million.

非 GAAP 利息支出為 7,000 萬美元，持續營業稅費為 1.82 億美元，即非 GAAP 有效稅率為 16.8%。非控制權益為 1,100 萬美元，基於股票的薪酬（不包括在我們的非 GAAP 收益中）為 1.15 億美元。

Taken together, we delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.45, slightly ahead of our midpoint guidance of $3.42. Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q3 was $10.18 billion with our cash balance of $3.15 billion, down $111 million sequentially and due to the cumulative effect of capital returns, internal CapEx, investments in previously announced equity accounted foundry joint ventures and cash generation during the quarter.

總而言之，我們實現的非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.45 美元，略高於我們 3.42 美元的中點指引。現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。 Our total debt at the end of Q3 was $10.18 billion with our cash balance of $3.15 billion, down $111 million sequentially and due to the cumulative effect of capital returns, internal CapEx, investments in previously announced equity accounted foundry joint ventures and cash generation during the四分之一.

The resulting net debt was $7.03 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $5.24 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was at 1.3 times and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 22.9 times.

由此產生的淨債務為 70.3 億美元，本季結束時，過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 52.4 億美元。第三季末，我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.3 倍，12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息保障倍數為 22.9 倍。

During Q3, we paid $259 million in cash dividends and repurchased $305 million of our shares. Taken together, we returned $564 million to our shareholders, representing 95% of non-GAAP free cash flow. In addition, on August 29, the NXP Board of Directors authorized an increase of our existing capacity to purchase an additional $2 billion of buybacks with a total balance of $2.64 billion at the end of Q3.

第三季度，我們支付了 2.59 億美元的現金股息，並回購了 3.05 億美元的股票。總的來說，我們向股東返還了 5.64 億美元，佔非 GAAP 自由現金流的 95%。此外，8 月 29 日，恩智浦董事會授權增加我們現有的能力，額外購買 20 億美元的股票，截至第三季末總餘額為 26.4 億美元。

Furthermore, since the end of Q3 and through Friday, November 1, we repurchased an additional $117 million of our shares under an established 10b5-1 program. Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 149 days, an increase of 1 day sequentially, while distribution channel inventory was 1.9 months or approximately 8 weeks.

此外，自第三季末到 11 月 1 日星期五，我們根據既定的 10b5-1 計劃額外回購了 1.17 億美元的股票。轉向營運資本指標。庫存天數為 149 天，比上一季增加 1 天，而分銷通路庫存為 1.9 個月或約 8 週。

Days receivable were 30 days, up 3 days sequentially; and days payable were 60 days, a decrease of 4 days versus the prior quarter. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 119 days, an increase of 8 days versus the prior quarter. Cash flow from operations was $779 million and net CapEx was $186 million or 6% of revenue, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $593 million or 18% of revenue.

應收帳款天數為30天，月增3天；應付帳款天數為60天，較上季減少4天。總的來說，我們的現金週轉週期為 119 天，比上一季增加了 8 天。營運現金流為 7.79 億美元，淨資本支出為 1.86 億美元，佔收入的 6%，因此非 GAAP 自由現金流為 5.93 億美元，佔收入的 18%。

Turning to our expectations for the fourth quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q4 revenue to be $3.1 billion plus or minus about $100 million. At the midpoint, this is down 9% year-on-year and down 5% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 57.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points.

轉向我們對第四季的預期。正如 Kurt 所提到的，我們預計第四季營收為 31 億美元將上下約 1 億美元。中間值年減 9%，季減 5%。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 57.5%，上下浮動 50 個基點。

Furthermore, our guidance assumes flat channel inventory at about 8 weeks exiting Q4. This reflects our continued discipline of proactively managing our distribution channel, especially during uncertain demand environments. Operating expenses are expected to be $725 million, plus or minus $10 million. Taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be 34.1% at the midpoint.

此外，我們的指導假設通路庫存在第四季度結束後大約 8 週持平。這反映了我們積極管理通路的持續紀律，特別是在需求不確定的環境下。營運費用預計為 7.25 億美元，上下浮動 1,000 萬美元。綜合來看，我們預期非 GAAP 營業利益率為 34.1% 的中位數。

We estimate non-GAAP financial expenses to be $77 million with the non-GAAP tax rate to be 16.8% of profit before tax at the midpoint. Noncontrolling interest and other will be $9 million. Our guidance assumes a $2 million loss from our equity accounted boundary joint ventures.

我們預計非 GAAP 財務費用為 7,700 萬美元，非 GAAP 稅率為稅前利潤中點的 16.8%。非控制權益及其他權益將為 900 萬美元。我們的指導假設我們的權益核算邊界合資企業損失 200 萬美元。

We suggest for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 257 million shares. Taken together at the midpoint, this implies a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.13. We expect stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP guidance to be $118 million.

出於建模目的，我們建議您使用 2.57 億股的平均股數。按中點計算，這意味著非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.13 美元。我們預計以股票為基礎的薪酬（未包含在我們的非公認會計準則指引中）為 1.18 億美元。

Turning to uses of cash. We expect capital expenditures to be around 5% of revenue. We also will make a $400 million capacity access fee and a $120 million equity investment into BSMC as well as a $52 million equity investment into ESMC, which are our two-equity accounted foundry joint ventures, which are under construction.

轉向現金的使用。我們預計資本支出將佔收入的 5% 左右。我們還將向 BSMC 支付 4 億美元的產能使用費和 1.2 億美元的股權投資，並對 ESMC 進行 5,200 萬美元的股權投資，這是我們正在建設中的兩股代工合資企業。

In closing, I would like to highlight three items. First, we will continue to return all excess cash to our owners through buybacks and dividends. We expect our Q4 capital returns to be above $700 million; second, despite the macro headwinds, NXP will continue to navigate and operate within its long-term financial model; and lastly, we look forward to you joining our 2024 Investor Day on Thursday, November 7 at 8:30 AM, where we will provide an update to our long-term strategic plan and financial model.

最後，我想強調三點。首先，我們將繼續透過回購和股利將所有多餘現金回饋給我們的所有者。我們預計第四季資本回報率將超過 7 億美元；其次，儘管面臨宏觀阻力，恩智浦將繼續在其長期財務模式內導航和營運；最後，我們期待您參加 11 月 7 日星期四上午 8:30 舉行的 2024 年投資者日活動，屆時我們將更新我們的長期策略計劃和財務模型。

I'd like to now turn it back to the operator for your questions.

我現在想將其轉回接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Thanks for letting me ask the question. Kurt, it seems like a lot of things changed during the course of the quarter. You're not alone in highlighting weakness, and I don't think it's NXP specific. But can you just talk a little bit about the specific customer behavior changes you saw because up until now, you seem to have set things up pretty conservatively throughout the year. So the guide down seems to be a little more of a surprise for you guys than the peers just given the setup appeared to be a little more favorable heading into the quarter and guide.

謝謝你讓我問這個問題。庫爾特，本季似乎發生了很多事情。您並不是唯一一個強調弱點的人，而且我認為這不是恩智浦特有的。但您能否簡單談談您看到的具體客戶行為變化，因為到目前為止，您全年的設定似乎相當保守。因此，對於你們來說，下降的指南似乎比剛剛的同行更令人驚訝，因為設置似乎對進入季度和指南更有利。

Yeah. Thanks, and good morning, Ross. Indeed, we were taken by some surprise, I would say, in the -- say, in the August time frame during quarter three by a broadening weakness in the industrial and IoT market pretty much across the board, which led to a much more cautious stance on their side, Ross, relative to also their inventory positions.

是的。謝謝，早安，羅斯。事實上，我想說的是，在第三季的 8 月份時間範圍內，工業和物聯網市場幾乎全面疲軟，這讓我們感到有些驚訝，這導致我們更加謹慎羅斯，相對於他們的庫存頭寸，他們的立場也是如此。

And the same is now broadening when you ask for the guidance for Q4, it's clearly broadening into the automotive segment. There I would exclude China from these discussions. I think you've heard similar from our peers. China actually appears to be quite strong. Our growth was led by China in quarter three and the sequential growth.

當您詢問第四季度的指導時，這種情況現在正在擴大，它顯然正在擴大到汽車領域。我會將中國排除在這些討論之外。我想你也從我們的同行那裡聽過類似的話。中國實際上看起來相當強大。我們的成長在第三季和環比成長中由中國引領。

And also in quarter four, China actually will grow from a sequential perspective over quarter three across automotive and Industrial and Iot. But that weakness and that customer behavior you were asking for is really specifically strong now in the fourth quarter in the Western Automotive and Industrial segments. Their customers, and you saw all the profit warnings from the car OEMs, for example, where now the Tier 1s are aiming to further reduce their inventory.

同樣在第四季度，中國的汽車、工業和物聯網領域實際上將比第三季度連續成長。但這種弱點和您所要求的客戶行為在第四季度在西方汽車和工業領域確實特別強烈。他們的客戶，例如，您看到了汽車原始設備製造商的所有利潤警告，現在一級供應商的目標是進一步減少庫存。

So our trends to undership against natural and demand is becoming even tougher, Ross. That's how I would characterize the customer behavior. It almost felt like everybody from them kept up their forecast. And then suddenly, August, September, they started to drop. And that is now rippling through to the Tier 1s, which are becoming even more cautious on what they want to hold from NXP in terms of inventory. You know that we have talked about this extended inventory digestion before, but that has now extended because of the end market weakness.

因此，羅斯，我們對抗大自然和需求的趨勢變得更加嚴峻。這就是我描述客戶行為的方式。幾乎感覺他們每個人都遵守了他們的預測。然後突然間，八月、九月，它們開始下降。現在，這種情況正在波及一級供應商，他們對從恩智浦獲得的庫存變得更加謹慎。您知道，我們之前曾討論過這種延長庫存消化的情況，但由於終端市場疲軟，這種情況現在已經延長。

Thanks for that color. And I guess, looking forward, Bill, switching to the gross margin side. I know that you talked about for the quarter. So just -- can you talk a little bit about utilization that's leading to the roughly 0.5 point to 1 point decline in gross margin? And how do we think about the levers for gross margin going forward at the risk of kind of front running, what you're going to talk about on Thursday, what are the plus and minuses to that in a weaker environment where inventory seems to be a little bit more persistently elevated?

謝謝那個顏色。我想，展望未來，比爾將轉向毛利率方面。我知道您談到了本季的情況。那麼，您能談談導致毛利率下降約 0.5 個百分點到 1 個百分點的利用率嗎？我們如何看待冒著搶先交易風險的毛利率槓桿，您週四將討論什麼，在庫存似乎疲軟的環境下，毛利率的優點和缺點是什麼？

Yeah. Thank you, Ross. And quickly on our Q3, our gross margin was missed, and you can probably see that very clearly through our segment reporting, where industrial IoT revenues where 80% of that is serviced through the distribution and carry accretive margins for us. And we also had a bit stronger mobile revenues, which are slightly dilutive to corporate margin to the -- and so that's why we missed 30 basis points in Q3. We obviously see that trend.

是的。謝謝你，羅斯。在第三季度，我們的毛利率很快就被錯過了，您可能可以透過我們的分部報告清楚地看到這一點，其中工業物聯網收入的80% 透過分銷提供，並為我們帶來了增值利潤。我們的行動收入也稍強一些，這稍微稀釋了企業利潤——這就是我們在第三季錯過 30 個基點的原因。我們顯然看到了這種趨勢。

Curt talked about the segments where clearly, industrial IoT will be stepping down again. So that becomes a mix headwind going into Q4. In addition, obviously, declining by $150 million we do also we had some fall through over our fixed costs. Related to inventory, you saw from a days perspective, we're kind of holding ourselves. But clearly, when you see our Q report, you're going to see increased finished goods.

Curt 談到了工業物聯網顯然將再次退出的領域。因此，這成為進入第四季的混合逆風。此外，顯然，我們確實減少了 1.5 億美元，但我們的固定成本也有所下降。與庫存相關，從一天的角度來看，我們有點堅持己見。但顯然，當您看到我們的 Q 報告時，您會看到成品增加。

And basically, those finished goods, we were going to put in the channel, but the sell-through wasn't there, so we held them on our balance sheet. And so it will probably take us a quarter to get back to where we want to be from an inventory perspective.

基本上，這些成品，我們打算放入通路，但銷售不存在，所以我們將它們保留在我們的資產負債表上。因此，從庫存角度來看，我們可能需要四分之一的時間才能回到我們想要的水平。

Now more longer term on the gross margins, again, clearly, we're running our utilization in the low 70s. We expect to continue around them in the low 70s, probably at least for the first half of 2025. So that will flip and become a tailwind when we decide and see sequential improvements in our revenue sometime in 2025. related to it. Clearly, we have mix that's a tailwind that will come in our way into the future as we continue to ramp our new products.

現在，從更長期的毛利率來看，很明顯，我們的利用率在 70 左右。我們預計將繼續在70 左右左右，可能至少在2025 年上半年如此。 。顯然，隨著我們繼續推出新產品，我們的產品組合將成為我們未來的順風車。

More importantly, we're going to talk about during Analyst Day, our real strategic structural changes that we plan to make more longer term, which obviously I said many times, that 58% is not our final destination. And please hold tight for a couple more days, and I'm going to walk you through that gross margin journey over the next three years and plus some as well related to it. But we feel pretty good.

更重要的是，我們將在分析師日期間討論我們計劃進行更長期的真正戰略結構性變革，顯然我多次說過，58% 不是我們的最終目標。請再堅持幾天，我將帶您了解未來三年的毛利率之旅以及與之相關的一些內容。但我們感覺還不錯。

Obviously, we have to make sure we burn off some finished goods here and going into Q4 and Q1 and rebalance the inventory a bit. But remember, we're holding about three weeks on to our balance sheet, which is margin accretive when we do ship it into the channel. We're holding that quite tightly at about eight weeks. We believe eight weeks is probably one of the lowest compared to all our peers. And once the environment normalizes, we will bring that back up to 11 weeks. It's just a matter of when that will be when the macro improves.

顯然，我們必須確保在第四季和第一季銷毀一些成品，並稍微重新平衡庫存。但請記住，我們的資產負債表保留了大約三週，當我們將其運送到管道時，這會增加利潤。我們將這個時間嚴格控制在八週左右。我們認為，與所有同行相比，八週可能是最短的。一旦環境恢復正常，我們會將其恢復至 11 週。這只是宏觀經濟何時會改善的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. I guess the first question is with regard to the channel inventory. And I know that you wanted to increase that somewhat. I guess it is right to interpret that the increase in channel inventory was just a function of the end markets being larger than you thought. And I guess, in the context of your customers taking the inventory down so low, how does that affect your view of where you want your own inventory to be as you go into next year on both a channel basis on an internal basis?

是的。謝謝。早安.我想第一個問題是關於渠道庫存的。我知道你想稍微增加一點。我想這樣解釋是正確的：渠道庫存的增加只是終端市場比你想像的更大的結果。我想，在您的客戶將庫存降得如此之低的情況下，這會如何影響您對進入明年時在渠道基礎上和內部基礎上希望自己的庫存水平的看法？

So hi, Chris. Let me take the channel question and the internal inventory question will be answered by Bill in a minute. So on the channel, yeah, I think you got it exactly right. We wanted to increase by a digit from 1.7 to 1.8, which we did. And by the way, let me remind you why we want to do this. We want to be sure that critical product for competitiveness in the channel is probably staged on the shelves.

嗨，克里斯。讓我來回答通路問題，內部庫存問題將由比爾立即回答。所以在頻道上，是的，我認為你說得完全正確。我們希望從 1.7 增加到 1.8，我們做到了。順便說一句，讓我提醒您為什麼我們要這樣做。我們希望確保通路競爭力的關鍵產品可能上架。

Since most of our competitors have higher positions there, we want to be sure we don't fall behind in terms of competitiveness. And yes, we inched another digit higher, which was then a function of the late weakness in the quarter, which I just talked about, which reduced the sell-through more than we had anticipated. That's why we indeed inched a little bit higher than we had anticipated in the plan. And Bill, maybe you'll speak about the internal inventory targets.

由於我們的大多數競爭對手都在那裡擁有較高的地位，因此我們希望確保我們在競爭力方面不會落後。是的，我們又小幅上漲了一個數字，這是我剛才談到的本季後期疲軟的結果，這導致銷量下降的幅度超出了我們的預期。這就是為什麼我們確實比計劃中的預期略高了一點。比爾，也許你會談論內部庫存目標。

Absolutely. Clearly, the macro environment is weaker now than 90 days ago, as Kurt explained, so I expect our inventory levels internally to remain elevated for the next couple of quarters until we obviously grow revenues again from a sequential standpoint. But again, at the same time, we are proactively reducing our foundry purchases which are more variable in nature for us. And this will probably have an impact in the first quarter of 2025.

絕對地。顯然，正如庫爾特所解釋的那樣，現在的宏觀環境比90 天前要弱，因此我預計我們的內部庫存水平在接下來的幾個季度將保持在較高水平，直到我們從連續的角度來看收入明顯再次成長。但同時，我們又在積極減少代工廠的採購，這對我們來說性質上更具變化性。這可能會在 2025 年第一季產生影響。

Q4 obviously is limited because we placed these orders already. And again, as I talk to Ross, we're holding about 3 weeks of finished goods of inventory on our balance sheet. So we'll proactively manage that. And then as we replenish the channel, we will get that benefit relief with inventory coming down internally. Again, we think it's important to hold it very tightly and low at 8 weeks.

第四季顯然是有限的，因為我們已經下了這些訂單。再次，當我與羅斯交談時，我們的資產負債表上持有大約三週的成品庫存。因此，我們將積極主動地進行管理。然後，當我們補充管道時，我們將透過內部庫存下降而獲得利益緩解。再次強調，我們認為在 8 週時將其保持在非常低的水平非常重要。

And sometime in 2025, we'll bring this back to the 11 weeks when the macro improves. And again, I have to say our majority of our inventory is long-lived supporting our auto industrial markets and had very, very low obsolescence.

到 2025 年的某個時候，當宏觀經濟有所改善時，我們會將其恢復到 11 週。再說一遍，我必須說，我們的大部分庫存都是長期支持我們的汽車工業市場的，而且報廢率非常非常低。

Thank you. I guess as a follow-up, I'll ask a question, which I know is very difficult to answer, but you're going to get it. So I'll be the one to ask it, which is -- do you think that we're pretty close to the bottom now and recognize how difficult that it is given the moving targets and such. But as an example, sort of normal seasonality is down to the first quarter.

謝謝。我想作為後續行動，我會問一個問題，我知道這個問題很難回答，但你會明白的。所以我會問這個問題，那就是——你是否認為我們現在已經非常接近谷底，並認識到考慮到移動目標等情況是多麼困難。但舉個例子，正常的季節性是在第一季。

I don't know if we should think about that differently given what's happened in the second half of this year. And I guess, with what your customers are planning to do with inventory, does that get -- and bring it so low, does that give you some confidence that we're kind of approaching revenue bottom levels here?

我不知道考慮到今年下半年發生的事情，我們是否應該以不同的方式思考這個問題。我想，根據您的客戶計劃如何處理庫存，這是否會導致庫存下降如此之低，這是否會讓您相信我們正在接近收入底部水平？

Yeah. Let me try and go at this. This is a number of complex questions. So first of all, clearly, the forward looking, there is a lot of uncertainty around this. I mean, with all the unexpected downticks from a macro perspective in automotive and industrial, which we've seen over the past say, 10 weeks, I want to be really careful in making strong statements for the longer future into next year.

是的。讓我嘗試一下。這是一連串複雜的問題。首先，顯然，從前瞻性角度來看，這方面存在著許多不確定性。我的意思是，從汽車和工業的宏觀角度來看，我們在過去的 10 週內看到了所有意想不到的下滑，我想在對明年的更長期未來做出強有力的聲明時要非常小心。

However, what we can offer is we do believe that probably quarter one will follow a pretty normal seasonal pattern. For NXP, which is a high single-digit sequential down from quarter four into quarter one. We see no reason why we should be different to normal seasonality here into quarter one.

然而，我們可以提供的是，我們確實相信第一季可能會遵循相當正常的季節性模式。對於恩智浦來說，這是一個較高的個位數環比下降，從第四季到第一季。我們認為第一季沒有理由與正常季節性有所不同。

I don't want to go that far, Chris, to call the trough because I just don't know what the macro is going to do with all the uncertainty around us. I don't think we can do this yet. I do agree with you that with our strong discipline on the channel inventory, and I had it in my prepared remarks, we keep it now flat again into quarter four. So where we start to stage a bit into the third quarter, we hold here.

克里斯，我不想走那麼遠，稱其為低谷，因為我只是不知道宏觀經濟將如何應對我們周圍的所有不確定性。我認為我們還不能做到這一點。我確實同意您的觀點，憑藉我們對通路庫存的嚴格紀律，我在準備好的演講中也提到了這一點，我們現在將其保持在第四季度的持平狀態。因此，我們在第三季開始階段的時候，我們就在這裡舉行。

So we keep it flat into the fourth quarter, which keeps us at a very low level of 8 weeks only. And also, indeed, with the direct customers at some point, inventory is just burned. So yes, at some point, of course, that sets us up for a good growth. I just cannot call and don't want to call when that moment is. But I would say NXP from an inventory in the customer space perspective is actually pretty well positioned.

因此，我們將其保持在第四季度持平，這使我們保持在僅 8 週的非常低的水平。而且，事實上，在某些時候，對於直接客戶來說，庫存就會被燒毀。所以，是的，當然，在某些時候，這將為我們的良好成長奠定基礎。我只是不能打電話，也不想在那一刻打電話。但我想說，從客戶空間的庫存角度來看，恩智浦實際上處於非常有利的位置。

Got it. Totally fair. Thank you.

知道了。完全公平。謝謝。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券公司。

Thanks for taking my questions. Kurt, what's NXP's relative exposure in the China-based car versus a European premium cars? So if, let's say, your China customers continue to take share, how does that content play out for NXP? And then this China trend, yes, you have mentioned it the peers have mentioned it. How much of that is kind of prebuying before the elections? And does that kind of keep the industry exposed to in-sourcing risks on a longer-term basis?

感謝您回答我的問題。 Kurt，與歐洲高級汽車相比，恩智浦在中國汽車領域的相對曝光度如何？那麼，假設您的中國客戶繼續佔據份額，那麼該內容對恩智浦來說將如何發揮作用？然後這個中國趨勢，是的，你有提到過，同行也提到過。其中有多少是選舉前的預購？這是否會使該產業長期面臨內包風險？

Yeah. So hi, Vivek. First on our exposure to content per vehicle in China versus premium Western. There are then high-end cars in the meantime in China, which have a similar set of features. So I would probably say that on the higher end cars in China, we have a very similar exposure from a content per vehicle perspective as we have in the Western world.

是的。嗨，維韋克。首先是我們對中國每輛車內容的了解與西方優質內容的比較。同時，中國也出現了具有類似功能的高端汽車。所以我可能會說，在中國的高階車上，從每輛車的內容角度來看，我們的曝光度與西方世界非常相似。

And as we have discussed a couple of times before, since they are spinning new platforms faster, I dare to say that probably the growth of that content exposure is growing faster than in the rest of the world because they they just get faster to the next innovation steps. They develop a new platform in two to three years, which gives us the opportunity to tap faster into a higher content opportunity.

正如我們之前討論過幾次的那樣，由於他們正在更快地推出新平台，我敢說，內容曝光的增長可能比世界其他地區更快，因為他們只是更快地進入下一個平台創新步驟。他們在兩到三年內開發了一個新平台，這使我們有機會更快地利用更高的內容機會。

So over time, that is actually strengthening. Now from anything we can see, I don't think -- and that's the second half of your question, I don't think that they are staging inventory or something because of election or other external events. It is actually the success of the Chinese industry. I mean, if you look at the at the global SAAR. In the meantime, for the world, it has tipped down to a forecast of minus 2% this year. So global SAAR is going to decline by 2% this year.

所以隨著時間的推移，這實際上正在加強。現在，從我們所看到的一切來看，我不認為——這是你問題的後半部分，我不認為他們因為選舉或其他外部事件而進行庫存或其他事情。這實際上是中國工業的成功。我的意思是，如果你看看全球的 SAAR。同時，對於全球來說，今年的預測已下調至-2%。因此，今年全球 SAAR 將下降 2%。

At the same time, China is going to grow by 2%. So you see the differential that China is actually doing better, which puts it at least to our estimate in a fair light relative to how our revenue develops better in China than in the other regions. The same holds true for this whole discussion about EV, so electric vehicle penetration. In China, it keeps going strong. We just got the other week that data point that in per September this year, 46% that was the penetration of EVs in China.

同時，中國經濟將成長2%。因此，您可以看到中國實際上做得更好的差異，這至少使我們的估計能夠公平地考慮到我們在中國的收入比其他地區發展得更好。對於整個關於電動車以及電動車普及率的討論也是如此。在中國，它持續強勁。前一周我們剛得到的數據顯示，今年 9 月份，中國電動車的滲透率達到 46%。

So almost 50% of the vehicles in China was then already electric. So the SAAR overall does well in China and the EV penetration is doing better than in the rest of the world. And that's for me, a fair reason why I do believe that the China growth, which we are experiencing is sustainable. It's really their competitiveness locally and globally against the Western players. It's almost like what is lost in the west is won in China.

因此，當時中國近 50% 的車輛已經是電動的。因此，SAAR 在中國整體表現良好，電動車普及率也比世界其他地區好。對我來說，這就是我相信我們正在經歷的中國成長是可持續的一個合理理由。這實際上是他們在本地和全球範圍內與西方企業競爭的競爭力。這幾乎就像在西方失去的東西在中國得到了一樣。

And for my follow-up, I think you mentioned that Q1, you expect to be seasonal, if I heard correctly, which is down high single digits. But if I were to just take the average of just your automotive business over the last seven years, including the COVID, that is more down like 1%, 2% or so on an average.

對於我的後續行動，我認為您提到了第一季度，如果我沒聽錯的話，您預計將是季節性的，這是下降的高個位數。但如果我只取過去七年汽車業務的平均值（包括新冠疫情），那麼平均下降了 1%、2% 左右。

I understand seasonality could mean different things at different times. But what explains this large difference between what we have seen with NXP over the last six or seven years in Q1, especially in your automotive business versus what I think you are kind of alluding to for Q1 '25.

我知道季節性在不同時間可能意味著不同的事情。但是，如何解釋我們在過去六七年的第一季中看到的恩智浦業務（尤其是在您的汽車業務方面）與我認為您提到的25 年第一季的業務之間存在的巨大差異。

Hey, Vivek, I'll take that. It's Jeff here. I don't think we're going to provide a guidance by segment into Q1. As Kurt said on a previous question, we do expect total company to be seasonally down into Q1. And I think that's probably about as far ahead of our SKUs as we're going to get today.

嘿，維韋克，我會接受的。傑夫在這裡。我認為我們不會在第一季提供按細分市場的指導。正如庫爾特在上一個問題中所說，我們確實預計整個公司的業績將季節性下降到第一季。我認為這可能遠遠領先於我們今天的 SKU。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Christopher Muse, Cantor.

克里斯多福·繆斯，康托爾。

Yeah. Good morning, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could give a little more color on the industrial slowdown that you're seeing. You talked about China strong, and I'm assuming that's a little more. So would love to hear kind of what -- whether North America, Europe, kind of any changes in terms of geo and where you're seeing weakness, whether it's broad isolated to safe factory automation, I would love to hear your thoughts.

是的。早安，下午好。感謝您提出我的問題。我希望你能對你所看到的工業放緩給出更多的描述。你談到了中國的強大，我認為這有點多了。因此，我很想聽聽 - 無論是北美、歐洲，在地理方面有任何變化嗎？

Yeah. Hi, CJ. Indeed, let me reconfirm the weakness in Q3, but also now specifically going to Q4 is predominantly across the board from Europe and the US in industrial and IoT, so across also most subsegments. But mind you that we are not that big in Europe and the US in industrial and IoT. So we are actually a relatively small player there. I -- if you want to get a little bit of color, I would say, especially factory automation appears to be particularly weak there in the West, in Europe and the US.

是的。嗨，CJ。事實上，讓我再次確認第三季的弱點，但現在具體來說第四季主要是歐洲和美國工業和物聯網領域的弱點，因此也遍及大多數細分市場。但請注意，歐洲和美國在工業和物聯網方面的規模並不大。所以我們實際上是一個相對較小的參與者。我——如果你想了解一點，我會說，特別是在西方、歐洲和美國，工廠自動化似乎特別薄弱。

The strength in China is more in the consumer IoT part, that 40% portion of our industrial IoT segment than in the core industrial. It's not that core industrial is particularly weak in China, but if you want to have color between the two in Q4 in China, then the stronger one is the consumer IoT, which I guess is also a bit of a seasonal strength into the fourth quarter.

中國的優勢更集中在消費性物聯網部分，即佔工業物聯網領域 40% 的部分，而不是核心工業。並不是說核心工業在中國特別弱，但如果你想在中國第四季在兩者之間有色彩，那麼更強的是消費物聯網，我想這也是進入第四季的季節性強勢。

Thank you so much. I guess as my follow-up, given kind of how you will manage the cycle to date, there's a perception that you're gearing into the next up cycle, maybe less than peers. So I was hoping you could speak to kind of where you think you are overall in terms of your sell-in versus sell-through and demand? And if there's any kind of color around end markets to kind of give confidence that when things do recover, that you do have that gearing cyclically?

太感謝了。我想作為我的後續行動，鑑於您將如何管理迄今為止的周期，人們認為您正在準備進入下一個上升週期，可能比同行要少。所以我希望你能談談你認為你的整體銷售與銷售和需求方面的情況？如果終端市場有任何顏色可以讓人相信，當情況確實復甦時，你確實有週期性的槓桿作用？

Yeah, I'm happy you're asking because I fail to understand the logic why we would come back less strong than others because we have fared somewhat better so far. And I fail to understand that because the only one reason why we are declining less this year, for example, with our guidance, you will see that NXP is like 5% down this year versus most of our direct peers more double-digit down. The reason for that is that we hit the brakes earlier. It's not that we took anything away from the future.

是的，我很高興你問這個問題，因為我不明白為什麼我們會比其他人更弱，因為到目前為止我們表現得更好。我無法理解這一點，因為我們今年跌幅較小的唯一原因是，例如，在我們的指導下，你會看到恩智浦今年的跌幅約為5%，而我們大多數直接同行的跌幅則更多兩位數。原因是我們踩剎車較早。這並不是說我們從未來奪走了任何東西。

The only thing is we didn't do it in the first place. So we did a little less and a little softer in '22 and '23, which helped us to not have to hit the brakes so hard in '24. But that puts us at the same starting point into any recovery. So that is our firm position here. And I think it all comes back down to what we discussed a little earlier in this call. which is the actual inventory position, which we have in the channel.

唯一的事情是我們一開始就沒有這麼做。因此，我們在 22 年和 23 年做得更少、更柔和，這幫助我們在 24 年不必那麼急煞車。但這使我們在任何復甦中都處於同一起點。這就是我們的堅定立場。我認為這一切都可以歸結為我們之前在這次電話會議中討論的內容。這是我們在通路中擁有的實際庫存位置。

And Bill said it, 1.9 months or about 8 weeks currently, which is still quite a bit away from the longer-term target of 11 weeks or 2.5 months, so that we still have like, I think, $300 million or so under the belt to be shipped in, which we don't do in the current environment. Again, we stay cautious. We could do, but we don't do it because we want to do it when it makes sense when the recovery happens.

比爾說，目前需要 1.9 個月或大約 8 週，距離 11 週或 2.5 個月的長期目標還有相當大的距離，因此我認為我們仍然有 3 億美元左右的資金發貨，但我們在當前環境下不這樣做。再次，我們保持謹慎。我們可以這樣做，但我們不這樣做是因為我們希望在復甦發生時有意義的時候這樣做。

And on the direct customer inventory, I can, of course, only assume, CJ, but I don't see a reason why we would be any worse or any better than typical peers. I mean that's the treatment you get from the customers. we can control that, but I don't think we should be any different to our peers. So therefore, no, I don't think there is a reason to believe we have less of a recovery ahead of us. We actually feel good about the soft-landing strategy, which includes only brought us down by 5% this year, thanks to cautious behavior the year before.

在直接客戶庫存方面，我當然只能假設，CJ，但我看不出我們會比典型同行更差或更好的原因。我的意思是，這就是你從顧客那裡得到的待遇。我們可以控制這一點，但我認為我們不應該與同行有任何不同。因此，不，我認為沒有理由相信我們的復甦前景會更黯淡。事實上，我們對軟著陸策略感覺良好，由於前一年的謹慎行為，軟著陸策略今年僅讓我們下跌了 5%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

史黛西‧拉斯貢，伯恩斯坦研究中心。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one just around the auto, like 90 days ago, you were sort of suggesting to us that auto would be stronger into the end of the year because of company-specific wins in radar and other things that were going to be ramping.

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一篇關於汽車的文章，就像 90 天前一樣，您向我們暗示，由於公司在雷達和其他方面取得的特定勝利，汽車到今年年底將會更加強勁。

So part of the incremental was I'm a little confusing, does that stuff does not ramp? Or did it ramp less than you thought? Or is it ramping later than you thought? Or what is it? Because it certainly doesn't seem to be enough to offset the other of the broader weakness that we're seeing? Like what's going on with that?

所以增量的一部分是我有點困惑，那些東西不會增加嗎？還是它的增幅比你想像的還要小？還是它的成長比你想像的還要晚？或者它是什麼？因為它似乎不足以抵消我們所看到的另一個更廣泛的弱點？好像是怎麼回事？

Yeah. Stacy, absolutely. I can confirm we did say that half two would grow over half one, driven by two factors. One was the anticipated recovery, and the other one was company-specific growth. We went very deeply into this and tried to find what happened and what didn't happen. The company-specific growth Stacy, it is happening. I mean it's a little softer because if they build a little less cars, then of course, you ramp also a little bit less.

是的。史黛西，絕對是。我可以確認，我們確實說過，二分之一將超過一分之一，這是由兩個因素驅動的。一是預期的復甦，二是公司特定的成長。我們對此進行了深入研究，試圖找出發生了什麼和沒有發生什麼。公司特有的成長史黛西，它正在發生。我的意思是它有點軟，因為如果他們生產的汽車少一點，那麼當然，你的坡道也會少一點。

But the fundamental mechanisms of RADAR and S32 rents are happening. We are actually growing quite nicely in the second half over the first half. But it is wiped away by the recovery not happening. And on the contrary, of macro weakness, which is actually superseding all of that. So underneath the company-specific drivers are intact. We will show a bit more detail on Thursday in our Investor Day in Boston. But it's not strong enough to overcome the macro weakness, Stacy.

但 RADAR 和 S32 租金的基本機制正在發生。事實上，與上半年相比，我們下半年的成長相當好。但它因沒有發生復甦而被抹去。相反，宏觀疲軟實際上正在取代所有這些。所以下面公司特定的驅動程式是完整的。我們將在周四的波士頓投資者日上展示更多細節。但它還不足以克服宏觀疲軟，史黛西。

Got it. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about gross margin. So I understand why they're coming down in Q4, I think. Now in Q1, you just suggested that revenues are probably down high-single digits sequentially. It doesn't sound to me like mix is any better. Is it -- should I be thinking that the 57.5% just given those dynamics in the near term is likely not the trough? Like how should we be thinking about gross margins into Q1 just giving the further revenue shortfall that we're seeing and any other drivers that are leading in the beginning of the year.

知道了。這很有幫助。對於我的後續行動，我想問毛利率。所以我想我理解為什麼他們在第四季會下降。現在在第一季度，您剛剛表示收入可能會連續下降高個位數。在我看來，混合並沒有更好。我是否應該認為，考慮到近期的動態，57.5% 可能不是低谷？就像我們應該如何考慮第一季的毛利率一樣，只是考慮到我們看到的進一步的收入短缺以及年初領先的任何其他驅動因素。

Yeah. Stacy, this is Bill. First, we're not going to guide you on -- but for modeling purposes, I would suggest when incorporating what Kurt said about the seasonal adjustments to revenues, probably best to use a gross margin similar to those revenue levels at the past in the absence of the guide. Again, we just don't know it's not fully ordered booked yet. So mix will play a role, of course, but I'm just not that smart enough. But for modeling, I would just use something along those lines during the last three years of those revenues.

是的。史黛西，這是比爾。首先，我們不會指導您 - 但出於建模目的，我建議在納入庫爾特所說的有關收入季節性調整的內容時，可能最好使用與過去的收入水平類似的毛利率沒有導遊。再說一次，我們只是不知道它還沒有完全預訂。所以混合當然會發揮作用，但我只是不夠聰明。但對於建模，我只會使用這些收入的最後三年類似的東西。

So where was that? I'd open up my model. Like where were gross margins last time revenues were?

那那是哪裡呢？我會打開我的模型。例如上次收入的毛利率是多少？

So you can probably find me on our website.

所以你也許可以在我們的網站上找到我。

I'll dig it up myself. But thank you, guys.

我自己來挖吧但謝謝你們，夥計們。

Francois Bouvignies, UBS.

弗朗索瓦·布維尼，瑞銀集團。

Thank you very much. My first question was on the pricing as we are at the end of the year where we understand you have some negotiation, especially for your auto customers. And from what you understand, of course, given the challenging environment, the pricing is -- it's like an intense conversation, I should say, from many peers that talked about this.

非常感謝。我的第一個問題是關於定價，因為我們已經到了年底，我們知道你們有一些談判，特別是對你們的汽車客戶。當然，根據你的理解，考慮到充滿挑戰的環境，定價是——我應該說，這就像來自許多談論這個問題的同行的激烈對話。

So I was wondering for NXP, how should we think about the pricing strategy, how you think the pricing is going to play out, given this pressure maybe more than usual, especially into next year, that would be very helpful. And I have a follow up after if that's okay.

所以我想知道恩智浦，我們應該如何考慮定價策略，你認為定價將如何發揮作用，考慮到這種壓力可能比平時更大，尤其是明年，這將非常有幫助。如果可以的話我會跟進。

Yeah. Thanks, Francois, absolutely. Let me confirm indeed two data points here. The one is, and we talked about this through this year, we can now say with a lot of confidence that for this year, pricing will have been neutral. So we will end the year with a flat pricing over the previous calendar year 2023. And from anything we can see today relative to next year's pricing across the entire company, so that's all the segments, all the channels together. It will probably be a low single-digit ASP erosion, which is very typical, I would say, and that's also what we have anticipated.

是的。非常感謝，弗朗索瓦。讓我在這裡確認兩個數據點。問題是，我們今年一直在討論這個問題，現在我們可以充滿信心地說，今年的定價將是中性的。因此，我們將以與上一日曆年2023 年持平的定價結束這一年。通路的總和。平均售價可能會下降個位數，這是非常典型的情況，我想說，這也是我們所預期的。

So after this whole swing after COVID and the supply crisis where prices were up, they went into flat this year. And we assume that for next year, but also the years after, it is reasonable to assume we are back to a low single-digit ASP erosion annually, which is very much in line, by the way, with what we have experienced in the years before the supply crisis and before COVID.

因此，在經歷了新冠疫情和供應危機導致價格上漲之後，今年價格持平。我們假設明年以及之後的幾年，我們可以合理地假設我們每年都會回到低個位數的平均售價侵蝕，順便說一句，這與我們在過去幾年所經歷的情況非常一致。前和新冠疫情爆發前幾年。

And I know you hear different data points from different people, Francois, but remind you that we have a pretty differentiated portfolio. So a lot of our product is very far away from a catalog or commodity products, which gives us also in a period like now a relatively strong standing when it comes to pricing.

我知道你從不同的人那裡聽到了不同的數據點，弗朗索瓦，但提醒你，我們有一個非常差異化的投資組合。因此，我們的許多產品與目錄或商品產品相距甚遠，這也使我們在像現在這樣的時期在定價方面擁有相對較強的地位。

That's very clear. Thank you, Kurt. And maybe a follow-up. It's a bit kind of a medium term, but still it impacts the short term given these challenges on the cycle, you have this China uncertainty with local players probably going after pricing. Even if you have a sticky and strong differentiation, as you described, Kurt, it's fair to assume maybe that the pricing environment and the oversupply that will take a bit longer to feel how NXP tends to play in that role?

這非常清楚。謝謝你，庫爾特。也許還有後續行動。這有點中期，但考慮到週期中的這些挑戰，它仍然會影響短期，中國存在不確定性，當地企業可能會追求定價。即使你有一個黏性和強大的差異化，正如你所描述的，庫爾特，可以公平地假設，也許定價環境和供過於求需要更長的時間才能感受到恩智浦在這個角色中的作用？

I mean, the trade-off between market share and gross margin, for example, would you consider like to exit some product as soon as you see something that doesn't play your way or cost saving program as well, given the very long down cycle? Is it something that you consider as well potentially just strategy?

我的意思是，市場佔有率和毛利率之間的權衡，例如，一旦你看到某些產品不符合你的方式，你是否會考慮退出某些產品，或者考慮到長期的下降，也考慮成本節約計劃循環？您認為這也可能只是戰略嗎？

Francois, absolutely. I mean, one side of this equation you all will learn more on Thursday this week when we will provide the new financial model with our new gross margin forecast, which obviously is a function or a consequence of that. But let me give you some color on the pricing. So we will not try and bid on price, Francois. Generally, I would say, the way how Bill and I and the management team, how we are running the company is if we have to compete on price only, then we are in the wrong product category.

弗朗索瓦，絕對的。我的意思是，這個等式的一方面，你們所有人都會在本週四了解更多，屆時我們將提供新的財務模型和新的毛利率預測，這顯然是其函數或結果。但讓我給你一些關於定價的資訊。所以我們不會嘗試競價，弗朗索瓦。一般來說，我會說，比爾和我以及管理團隊的方式，我們經營公司的方式是，如果我們只需要在價格上競爭，那麼我們就處於錯誤的產品類別中。

So there is always a gray zone in between. Of course, we have to stay -- try and stay competitive. But if it really comes to a point that the only way, the only leverage we have to win would be price, then we would eventually exit that. And you have examples. I mean we did this with powertrain microcontrollers in automotive, for example. There are over a number of years after we have acquired Freescale, we have actually exited some of these subsegments and they have been heavily picked up by some of our peers.

所以兩者之間總是存在著一個灰色地帶。當然，我們必須留下來——努力保持競爭力。但如果真的到了這樣一個地步：我們獲勝的唯一途徑、唯一槓桿就是價格，那麼我們最終會退出。你有例子。我的意思是，例如，我們透過汽車動力總成微控制器來做到這一點。在我們收購飛思卡爾之後的許多年裡，我們實際上已經退出了其中一些細分市場，並且它們已被我們的一些同行大力收購。

So yes, we are doing that or the banking cup business years ago. There was a similar thing where in the end, we don't try to compete on price. Now there is, of course, more to it, Francois because it is also our cost competitiveness. We work maniacally on bringing our own cost down. And the more recent moves with the BSMC joint venture, for example, in Singapore, and a few other moves we have are actually helping us to come at the same time to a competitive cost base.

所以，是的，我們幾年前就在做銀行杯業務。也有類似的事情，最終我們不會嘗試在價格上競爭。當然，弗朗索瓦，現在還有更多，因為這也是我們的成本競爭力。我們瘋狂地致力於降低自己的成本。最近與 BSMC 合資企業（例如在新加坡）的舉措以及我們採取的其他一些舉措實際上正在幫助我們同時建立具有競爭力的成本基礎。

So I mean, price is also a function of the cost which we can achieve. And also there, we work very hard. But still, ultimately, no, we are not the company which would sacrifice gross margin for short-term market share. That's not the philosophy how we run the company.

所以我的意思是，價格也是我們可以實現的成本的函數。在那裡，我們工作非常努力。但歸根究底，我們不是那種為了短期市佔率而犧牲毛利率的公司。這不是我們經營公司的理念。

Thanks for that color. Thank you, Kurt.

謝謝那個顏色。謝謝你，庫爾特。

Josh Buchalter, TD Cowen.

喬許·布查爾特，TD·考恩。

Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. I'm sorry for harping on gross margin, but it's the one that box the most last night and this morning. I guess if we zoom out, I mean, your gross margins have been remarkably stable for like 10, 11 quarters and now are starting to see some leverage with revenue.

嘿，夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。我很抱歉喋喋不休地談論毛利率，但這是昨晚和今天早上最糟糕的毛利率。我想如果我們縮小範圍，我的意思是，你們的毛利率在大約 10、11 個季度中一直非常穩定，現在開始看到一些與收入的槓桿作用。

Like can you, I guess, maybe walk through why now? And it sounds like it's all maybe fixed cost coverage and utilization rates, and there's nothing going on with pricing, but the mix by end market isn't really changing anything within mix of products that we should be aware of? Or any other factors beyond, again, fixed cost coverage and purchase agreements that are really driving the sequential decline in gross margins in both the fourth quarter and I guess, what you're implying for the March quarter, which is another leg down? Thank you.

我想你現在能解釋為什麼嗎？聽起來這可能都是固定的成本覆蓋率和利用率，而且定價沒有任何變化，但終端市場的組合併沒有真正改變我們應該意識到的產品組合中的任何內容？或者除了固定成本覆蓋和採購協議之外的任何其他因素，這些因素確實推動了第四季度毛利率的連續下降，我想，您對三月份季度的暗示是什麼，這是另一條下降之路？謝謝。

Sure. Hey, Josh. Yeah, I mean it's really just a function of the revenue levels over a fixed cost structure. Obviously, mix plays a role played a role in Q3 a bit and playing another role of some sort of it along with the lower revenues. And really, the step down going into Q1, it will be the total revenue level, to be honest with you.

當然。嘿，喬許。是的，我的意思是，這實際上只是收入水準與固定成本結構的函數。顯然，混合在第三季度發揮了一定的作用，並且隨著收入的下降而發揮了某種作用。事實上，老實說，進入第一季度，下降的將是總收入水準。

There's not really anything else fundamentally different. It's just that, okay, now you have to rebalance the inventory a bit. And so maybe you don't build as much goods and you have to adjust foundry and so forth. So I know I will walk the team through the gross margin journey this upcoming Thursday.

沒有其他本質上的不同。只是，好吧，現在你必須重新平衡庫存。因此，也許你沒有製造那麼多的商品，你必須調整鑄造廠等等。所以我知道我將在下週四帶領團隊完成毛利率之旅。

And again, I would say we've been quite resilient here compared to many of our peers because of that fluctuation of the revenues clearly have an impact to the gross margins and how they service their customers or stage inventory. So we feel pretty good of where we are.

再說一次，我想說，與許多同行相比，我們在這方面表現得相當有彈性，因為收入的波動顯然會影響毛利率以及他們服務客戶或階段庫存的方式。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。

And again, it will be mostly a function of revenue over the near term. And then once we see the macro improve, we are very excited about some of the levers that Kurt just talked about more longer terms to actually bring the gross margin above our high end of our current model today.

同樣，這將主要取決於短期內的收入。然後，一旦我們看到宏觀經濟改善，我們對庫爾特剛才談到的更長期的一些槓桿感到非常興奮，這些槓桿實際上可以使毛利率高於我們當前模型的高端。

Got it. Thank you. I appreciate the color there. For a follow-up, Kurt, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, there's a lot of volatility and changes going on at OEMs, in particular in the West. I was wondering if you can maybe speak to your confidence and ignoring the inventory changes, have there been changes in the assumptions on content at those customers?

知道了。謝謝。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。庫爾特，我想您在準備好的發言中提到，原始設備製造商正在發生許多波動和變化，特別是在西方。我想知道您是否可以說出您的信心並忽略庫存變化，這些客戶對內容的假設是否發生了變化？

And in particular, I think the 5-nanometer 32 MPE was supposed to ramp in sort of the 2026-timeframe. Is that still on progress? And I guess, how are you seeing engagements for your content on the software-defined vehicle side? Thank you.

特別是，我認為 5 奈米 32 MPE 應該會在 2026 年的時間範圍內成長。這還在進展嗎？我想，您如何看待您的內容在軟體定義車輛方面的參與度？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Josh. No change. We are actually very confident here and my leader for the auto business, Jens will speak in much greater detail on the day, about the traction of the STV. But you will also see in the numbers that our STV S32 growth accelerated segment has outperformed our targets in spite of all the turmoil over the past three years. So we will show the numbers on Thursday.

是的。謝謝，喬許。沒有變化。事實上，我們對此非常有信心，我的汽車業務領導者 Jens 將在當天更詳細地談論 STV 的吸引力。但您也會從數字中看到，儘管過去三年出現了許多動盪，但我們的 STV S32 成長加速細分市場的表現仍超出了我們的目標。所以我們將在周四公佈這些數字。

So that has great traction today. And we anticipate we'll continue to have great traction, and that absolutely, of course, includes the S32, which is the 5-nanometer behavior computer and a lot of other products. What does happen, however, is we do see a continuous non-competitiveness of the Western OEMs versus Chinese OEMs.

所以這在今天具有很大的吸引力。我們預計我們將繼續擁有巨大的吸引力，當然，這絕對包括 S32，它是 5 奈米行為計算機和許多其他產品。然而，我們確實看到西方原始設備製造商相對於中國原始設備製造商持續缺乏競爭力。

So I dare to say that from anything we can judge here, the pendulum swings more in favor of the Chinese car companies. That doesn't mean that the content per vehicle in Europe or the US comes down but maybe the number of cars that they are building is coming down.

所以我敢說，從我們在這裡可以判斷的任何方面來看，鐘擺更有利於中國汽車公司。這並不意味著歐洲或美國每輛車的含量下降，但也許他們正在製造的汽車數量正在下降。

So that's not a content question. It's more a unit production question, which is going probably in favor of China, which means next to our efforts to win with STV concepts across the board. We want to particularly be sure that we keep winning also in China because that is where probably the bigger opportunity is going forward.

所以這不是一個內容問題。這更多的是一個單位生產問題，這可能對中國有利，這意味著我們將努力透過 STV 概念全面獲勝。我們特別希望確保我們在中國也能繼續獲勝，因為那裡可能有更大的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you so much for taking the question. I have two quick ones on automotive. Just wanted to clarify, Kurt, the incremental weakness you're seeing in auto, is that at this point, purely due to weakening end demand? Or are your Tier 1s bringing down their inventory levels as we speak as well. I think last quarter, you gave a range of something like 2 to 12 weeks in terms of how they're managing their inventory. Have you seen any changes to how they think about optimal inventory levels?

你好。早安.非常感謝您提出這個問題。我有兩篇關於汽車的快速文章。庫爾特，我只是想澄清一下，您在汽車領域看到的逐漸疲軟，是否純粹是由於最終需求疲軟？或者正如我們所說，您的一級供應商是否正在降低庫存水準？我認為上個季度，您就他們如何管理庫存給出了 2 到 12 週的時間範圍。您是否發現他們對最佳庫存水準的看法發生了任何變化？

It is unfortunately indeed both, Toshiya. So they bring down the expected unit numbers, which they will produce. And I said earlier that the SAAR for this year is now at minus 2%. In Europe, by the way, at minus 5% year-over-year. But because of that, the 2 to 12 weeks, Toshiya also become a lower number. That's the whole issue. So with the OEMs telling the Tier 1s that they need less parts, they forecast also a lower inventory target. So we get a double whammy.

不幸的是，確實兩者兼而有之，Toshiya。因此，他們降低了生產的預期單位數量。我之前說過，今年的季節性調整率現在是-2%。順便說一句，在歐洲，比去年同期下降了-5%。但也因為如此，在2到12週的時間裡，Toshiya也變得更低了。這就是整個問題。因此，隨著原始設備製造商告訴一級供應商他們需要更少的零件，他們預計庫存目標也會降低。所以我們受到了雙重打擊。

We suffered directly from the lower production numbers but we also suffer from the overlaid lower inventory in absolute dollar terms, which is a function of that. So I would say the 2 to 12 weeks still stands but against the lower revenue number. And that's why -- and there is also an emotional element like towards year-end when they have a poor outlook. They, of course, have no interest whatsoever to end the year on the two high inventory. So they rather go lower than higher.

我們直接受到產量下降的影響，但我們也受到以絕對美元計算的庫存下降的影響，這是一個函數。所以我想說 2 到 12 週仍然有效，但收入數字較低。這就是原因——還有一種情緒因素，例如年底時他們的前景不佳。當然，他們沒有任何興趣在年底保持兩個高庫存。所以他們寧願走低也不願走高。

So yes, it is both. The one is overlaid the other, which, of course, on the other side of all of this is the starting point for a better recovery. But again, I don't want to go to the point when that recovery is. But in the end, it means once it grows, it grows even stronger. That's what we have the last three cycles out of that same situation.

所以是的，兩者都是。一個是另一個疊加的，當然，這一切的另一面是更好恢復的起點。但同樣，我不想達到復甦的地步。但歸根結底，這意味著一旦成長，就會變得更強大。這就是我們在過去三個週期中擺脫同樣情況的情況。

Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Thank you. And then as my follow-up, you've seen a mix shift in favor of hybrids at the expense of maybe not at the expense of EVs, but EV adoption has kind of stalled over the past several quarters. I think the industry consensus view is that over the long run, EVs do grow pretty materially.

是的。這很有意義。謝謝。然後，作為我的後續行動，您已經看到了有利於混合動力汽車的混合轉變，但可能不以電動車為代價，但電動車的採用在過去幾個季度中有點停滯。我認為產業的共識是，從長遠來看，電動車確實會大幅成長。

But as you talk to your partners and customers into 25 and maybe early part of '26, do you have a view on how hybrids perform or EVs perform relative to one another? And more importantly, what are the implications from a content perspective for you guys at NXP? Thank you.

但是，當您在 25 年甚至 26 年初與合作夥伴和客戶交談時，您對混合動力車或電動車的相對錶現有何看法？更重要的是，從內容的角度來看，這對恩智浦的你們有什麼影響？謝謝。

Yeah. So we don't have that much of a differential between hybrids and EVs because, as you know, we don't have power discretes, which are much more sensitive to the difference between hybrids and fully our main thrust in the electrification space is the battery management systems and they don't differ that much from a dollar content perspective between the two.

是的。因此，我們在混合動力車和電動車之間沒有太大的差異，因為如您所知，我們沒有功率分立裝置，它對混合動力車之間的差異更加敏感，而且我們在電氣化領域的主要推動力是電池管理系統，從美元含量的角度來看，兩者之間沒有太大差異。

So therefore, we don't have a sharp eye on the specific mix change between hybrid and full EV. At the same time, I just want to slightly maybe adjust what you said, the overall XEV, it has slowed absolutely, but it is still going to be a 14% growth this year. So in units, XEVs worldwide this year, will grow by 14% over the year before, while the total SAAR is declining by 2%.

因此，我們並沒有密切關注混合動力和純電動車之間的特定混合變化。同時，我只是想稍微調整一下你所說的，整體XEV，它已經絕對放緩，但今年仍然會成長14%。因此，今年全球 XEV 的銷量將比前一年增長 14%，而 SAAR 總量將下降 2%。

So I mean, that is still a very, very strong growth and it will be 37% of the total vehicle production this year. So 37% of all vehicles produced on the planet this year are actually XEVs. So it is moderated from a pace perspective relative to what it was forecasted to be but it is still growing very sharply, and that continues to help us.

所以我的意思是，這仍然是一個非常非常強勁的成長，將佔今年汽車總產量的 37%。因此，今年全球生產的所有車輛中有 37% 實際上是 XEV。因此，從速度的角度來看，相對於預測而言，它是溫和的，但它仍然在急劇增長，這繼續對我們有幫助。

And yes, the other half of your question, yes, we do continue that over the longer term, we do continue to believe it will grow. We think something like a 75% global XEV penetration by 2030. That's kind of the data point which we have ahead of us.

是的，你問題的另一半，是的，從長遠來看，我們確實繼續相信它會成長。我們認為，到 2030 年，全球 XEV 普及率將達到 75%。

Appreciate that. Thank you.

很欣賞這一點。謝謝。

William Stein, Truist Securities.

威廉·斯坦，Truist 證券公司。

Great. I'm just going to ask one, if I can. The weaker-than-expected results in industrial and IoT and yet the strength in China, I'm a little bit confused because I always recall this segment to be very China and very China distribution focused. So maybe you can correct my understanding. Is it -- am I correct, but what's outside of China is very, very weak? Or is my recollection of the mix of this in terms of geo and channel maybe stale? Thank you.

偉大的。我只是想問一個人，如果可以的話。工業和物聯網的業績弱於預期，但中國的實力很強，我有點困惑，因為我總是記得這個細分市場非常中國和中國分銷。所以也許你可以糾正我的理解。我對嗎，中國以外的地區非常非常弱？或者我對地理和頻道混合的記憶可能已經過時了？謝謝。

It has a majority in China. That is very true. So you don't miscall it. The US and Europe is very weak. And what we did say is that about 80% of the whole industrial IoT business is going through the distribution channel. So maybe you mix this with the China exposure. Not all of that 80% is in China, but 80% of the total segment is going through the channel.

它在中國佔多數。這是非常正確的。所以你別叫錯了。美國和歐洲非常弱。我們確實說過，整個工業物聯網業務的大約 80% 是透過分銷管道進行的。所以也許你可以將其與中國的風險混合起來。並非所有 80% 都在中國，但整個細分市場的 80% 是透過通路進行的。

And since we keep up our channel discipline and don't overship there, we basically are really fully exposed to the end demand because we are down to our 8 weeks, and we keep it flat there. So therefore, the strength in China cannot overcompensate the weakness in Europe and the US. Yet China as a whole, as I said before, will grow into Q4 in both the industrial and the auto segment. But the rest is just falling so much that it can hold up.

由於我們保持通路紀律，不過度運輸，我們基本上完全暴露於最終需求，因為我們的期限已縮短至 8 週，並且我們保持不變。因此，中國的強勢並不能過度彌補歐洲和美國的弱勢。然而，正如我之前所說，中國作為一個整體，工業和汽車領域都將進入第四季。但其餘的只是跌幅如此之大，以至於可以支撐下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Marvin, we'll take one last question here today, please.

馬文，今天請我們回答最後一個問題。

Chris Danely, Citi.

克里斯丹利，花旗銀行。

Hey, gang. Thanks for squeezing me in. So just two quick ones. So guys, can you just give us a sense of how much of your auto business is China. And then I'm sure you were at the Paris Auto Show as well. It seemed like there were dozens of China sort of EV companies and start-ups. If China gains a bunch of share in the EV market, what's the impact to NXP? Is it good? Is it bad? Is it indifferent? How would that be?

嘿，幫派。謝謝你讓我插話。夥計們，你們能告訴我們你們的汽車業務有多少是來自中國的嗎？我確信您也參加了巴黎車展。中國似乎有數十家電動車公司和新創公司。如果中國在電動車市場獲得大量份額，會對恩智浦產生什麼影響？好不好？是不是很糟糕？是冷漠嗎？那會怎麼樣呢？

So Chris, we don't break down the geo by segment. But since auto is like 56% or 58% of NXP. And we -- and you find in the Q, the total breakdown by geo of NXP, where China is between 35% and I think now even 37% with the strength in China. I mean, just assume that auto is probably not that far from the corporate average. And that means, indeed, Chris, yes, with China getting stronger, and I can only echo what you say there is a whole entry later and great lineup of EVs coming out of China, which, at some point, will find their way worldwide.

克里斯，我們不會按地區細分。但由於汽車產業約佔 NXP 的 56% 或 58%。我們——你可以在 Q 中找到恩智浦按地區劃分的總體細分，其中中國佔 35%，我認為現在甚至可以占到 37%，因為中國的實力很強。我的意思是，假設汽車產業可能與企業平均值相差不遠。這確實意味著，克里斯，是的，隨著中國變得越來越強大，我只能回應你所說的，稍後會有一個完整的條目，並且來自中國的電動車陣容強大，在某些時候，這些電動車將在全球找到自己的道路。

That is to the extent we can see it today, a good thing for NXP because they are faster, they get faster innovation out, which means our later -- our newer products are coming into production much quicker than with Western OEMs. And if we keep up the pace, and we put everything in motion to do that, this continues to be a positive for NXP.

就我們今天所看到的而言，這對恩智浦來說是一件好事，因為它們速度更快，創新速度更快，這意味著我們後來的新產品比西方原始設備製造商的生產速度還要快得多。如果我們跟上步伐，並全力以赴做到這一點，這對恩智浦來說仍然是積極的。

Great. Thanks, Kurt. I got to figure out a way to get that into my note on Enchilada -- Chinese Enchilada [EV] And then just real quick, a follow-up for Bill. So Bill, your inventory days are basically in the $145 million to $150 million range for this year. Longer term, what's the goal there? Are we going to keep it at $150 million while this weakness passes? And then where are we looking at like longer term there?

偉大的。謝謝，庫爾特。我必須找到一種方法將其納入我的關於玉米捲餅的筆記中——中國玉米捲餅 [EV] 然後很快，比爾的後續行動。 Bill，今年您的庫存天數基本上在 1.45 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間。從長遠來看，目標是什麼？當這種疲軟狀態過去時，我們是否會將其保持在 1.5 億美元？那麼長遠來看，我們在哪裡著眼呢？

Yeah, sure. Over the next couple of quarters, I think we'll be at this level until we decide to replenish the channel. And so that's about 3 weeks' worth. So that would naturally come down and pull down our internal inventory when we decide to go replenish more longer term, we will be updating this on Thursday on what we think is the required inventory target to service our customer needs.

是的，當然。在接下來的幾個季度中，我認為我們將處於這個水平，直到我們決定補充管道。這大約是 3 週的時間。因此，當我們決定長期補充更多庫存時，這自然會下降並減少我們的內部庫存，我們將在周四更新我們認為滿足客戶需求所需的庫存目標。

So please be patient with me and wait two more days and you'll get the whole complete model of everything of both the P&L and our working capital and CapEx and so forth. So just please be patient with me there.

因此，請對我耐心等待，再等兩天，您將獲得損益表、營運資金和資本支出等所有內容的完整模型。所以請耐心等待我。

Will do. Thanks, guys.

會做。謝謝，夥計們。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Kurt Sievers, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想請總裁兼執行長 Kurt Sievers 致閉幕詞。

Yeah. Thanks, operator. Yeah, we had to report today that we were taken by some surprise in the third quarter of an enhanced weakness in the automotive and industrial and US and European markets, which is totally beyond our control.

是的。謝謝，接線生。是的，我們今天不得不報告，第三季汽車和工業以及美國和歐洲市場的疲軟加劇令我們感到驚訝，這完全超出了我們的控制範圍。

So what we do, we clearly maniacally try to control and will control what is in our powers. And I hope the guide and the early signs which we show for next year, give you a feel for that. That does not take away anything from staying course on our soft lending strategy which should set us up very well for the recovery whenever it happens. We are not in a position to make a judgment on that. But when it happens, we should be set up very well with the low inventory in the channel and the low inventory at our direct customers.

所以我們所做的，顯然是瘋狂地試圖控制並且將會控制我們所能控制的事情。我希望我們明年展示的指南和早期跡象能讓您感受到這一點。這並不會影響我們堅持軟貸款策略，無論何時復甦，這都應該為我們做好準備。我們無法對此做出判斷。但當這種情況發生時，我們應該做好準備，應對通路中的低庫存和直接客戶的低庫存。

Now at the same time, I hope to see many of you in our Investor and Analyst Day this week, first day in Boston where we will speak about our long-term strategy and give you the long-awaited update on our long-term financial model. Can't wait to see you all. Thank you very much for your attention this morning. Thank you.

同時，我希望在本週的投資者和分析師日上見到你們中的許多人，這是在波士頓的第一天，我們將在會議上談論我們的長期策略，並向你們提供期待已久的關於我們長期財務的最新資訊。迫不及待想見到大家。非常感謝您今天早上的關注。謝謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。