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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to NXP Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn your conference over to Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。現在我謹將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁傑夫‧帕爾默先生。請繼續。
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP Semiconductors earnings call today. With me on the call today is Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded will be available for replay from our corporate website. The call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the first quarter of 2026. NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure of forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.
謝謝你,米歇爾,大家早安。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體今日的財報電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有恩智浦半導體總裁兼執行長拉斐爾·索托馬約爾,以及我們的財務長比爾·貝茨。今天的電話會議將會被錄音,錄音內容可在公司網站上回放。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,其中涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致恩智浦的表現與管理階層目前的預期有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於:有關宏觀經濟對我們經營的特定終端市場的影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2026 年第一季財務業績的預期。NXP不承擔公開修訂或更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。有關前瞻性聲明的完整揭露,請參閱我們的新聞稿。
Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations to the non-GAAP f inancial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and our fourth quarter 2025 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K and available from NXP's website in the Investor Relations section. Now I'd like to pass the call to Rafael.
此外,我們也會提及一些非GAAP財務指標,這些指標主要由管理階層認為與NXP基本核心經營績效沒有直接關係的個別事件所驅動。根據 G 條例,NXP 已提供非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調節表,以及我們 2025 年第四季度收益新聞稿,該新聞稿將以 8-K 表格的形式提交給美國證券交易委員會,並可在 NXP 網站的投資者關係部分獲取。現在我想把電話轉給拉斐爾。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning. We appreciate you joining our call today. Our overall performance during the fourth quarter was solid, with all end markets performing either in line or better than expected. All regions were up on a year-on-year basis.
謝謝你,傑夫,早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。第四季整體業績穩健,所有終端市場均達到或超過預期。所有地區都實現了同比增長。
Turning to the specifics. NXP delivered fourth quarter revenue of $3.34 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year and up 5% sequentially. This was $35 million better than the midpoint of our guidance. Non-GAAP operating margin in the fourth quarter was about 35%, 40 basis points above the same period a year ago, and in line with the midpoint of our guidance. Taken together, we drove non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.35, $0.07 better than guidance.
接下來談談具體細節。恩智浦半導體第四季營收達33.4億美元,年增7%,季增5%。這比我們先前預期的中位數高出3500萬美元。第四季非GAAP營業利潤率約35%,比去年同期高出40個基點,與我們預期的中點一致。綜合來看,我們實現了非GAAP每股收益3.35美元,比預期高出0.07美元。
Distribution inventory will stay weak, consistent with our guidance. We remain disciplined on channel health, prioritizing sell-through of high-demand products rather than broad-based restocking. Now I would like to reflect on our performance in 2025. The year was a tale of two halves, with the first half of the year, exhibiting weaker demand trends, while in the second half of the year, demand began to accelerate in support of our long-term revenue growth model.
分銷庫存將保持疲軟,與我們的預期一致。我們始終堅持通路健康管理原則,優先考慮高需求產品的銷售,而不是大規模補貨。現在我想展望一下我們2025年的表現。今年可謂冰火兩重天,上半年需求疲軟,下半年需求開始加速成長,支撐了我們的長期營收成長模式。
Looking at the specifics. Automotive revenue was $7.1 billion, flat year-on-year due to slower inventory digestion at direct customers in the first half of 2025. With the inventory digestion behind us, the second half performance aligns with our group, our 8% to 12% long-term growth outlook, reflecting the underlying strength of our auto portfolio.
仔細分析細節。2025 年上半年,由於直接客戶庫存消化速度放緩,汽車業務收入為 71 億美元,與去年同期持平。隨著庫存消化工作的完成,下半年的業績與我們集團 8% 至 12% 的長期成長預期相符,反映了我們汽車業務組合的強勁實力。
A few examples which underpin our optimism includes our efforts in software-defined vehicles,where we have been -- where we have seen strong global adoption of NXP products. This includes design win rates for our S32 and family of five-nanometer vehicle compute processors, the newly introduced S32K family of 60-nanometer [Sono] processors and continued adoption of automotive Ethernet products. These efforts are now material and global in nature with most auto OEMs undertaking SDV platform initiatives.
我們樂觀態度的幾個佐證包括我們在軟體定義汽車領域的努力,我們已經看到 NXP 產品在全球範圍內得到了廣泛應用。這包括我們 S32 系列 5 奈米車載運算處理器的設計得標率、新推出的 S32K 系列 60 奈米 [Sono] 處理器以及汽車乙太網路產品的持續普及。這些努力現在具有實質和全球意義,大多數汽車OEM廠商都在推行SDV平台計畫。
Additionally, the early conversations with customers from the recently acquired technologies from TTTech Auto and Aviva Links are accelerating interest in NXP's SDV portfolio. The potential revenue contribution from these engagements should materialize beyond 2027. This multiyear SDV platforms deepen customer commitment and support mix improvement over time. Turning to the industrial and IoT end market.
此外,與近期從 TTTech Auto 和 Aviva Links 收購的技術的客戶進行的早期對話,正在加速人們對 NXP 的 SDV 產品組合的興趣。這些合作項目帶來的潛在收入貢獻應該會在 2027 年以後才能實現。這種多年期的SDV平台能夠加深客戶承諾,並隨著時間的推移改善產品組合。轉向工業和物聯網終端市場。
Revenue was $2.3 billion, flat year-on year. The second half growth was materially above our 8% to 12% long-term growth outlook across both core industrial and consumer and IoT. Supporting our ambition to lead in intelligent systems at the edge, we continue to see strong customer engagements in the emerging market for physical AI.
營收為23億美元,與前一年持平。下半年成長幅度遠超過我們先前預測的 8% 至 12% 的長期成長預期,無論是在核心工業領域、消費領域或物聯網領域。為了支持我們在邊緣智慧系統領域保持領先地位的雄心,我們不斷看到客戶在新興的實體人工智慧市場中積極參與。
By combining the industry leading i.MX family of industrial application processors with the recently acquired Kinara MPU, we can deliver complete and scalable AI platforms that accelerate deployment at the edge. A few examples of applications include medical imaging systems, camera-based workplace safety system in the industrial market, logistic automation systems and robotics.
透過將業界領先的 i.MX 系列工業應用處理器與最近收購的 Kinara MPU 相結合,我們可以提供完整且可擴展的 AI 平台,從而加速邊緣部署。應用實例包括醫療影像系統、工業市場中基於攝影機的工作場所安全系統、物流自動化系統和機器人技術。
Customer interest has been exceptionally strong, and these engagements reinforce our vision of physical AI and the power of the NXP platform. These opportunities expand our addressable market, support sustainable growth and validate the unique competitive nature of our complete system portfolio. Looking at our mobile business, revenue in 2025 was solid at $1.6 billion, up 6% year-on-year. We saw stronger demand and content gains in the premium mobile market.
客戶的興趣異常濃厚,這些互動也強化了我們對實體人工智慧的願景以及恩智浦平台的強大功能。這些機會擴大了我們的目標市場,支持了永續成長,並驗證了我們完整系統組合的獨特競爭力。從我們的行動業務來看,2025 年的營收穩健,達到 16 億美元,年增 6%。我們看到高端行動市場的需求更加強勁,內容也更加豐富。
Overall, NXP remains a specialty supplier in the mobile market with a unique and defensible franchise centered on secure mobile transactions.
總體而言,恩智浦半導體仍然是行動市場的專業供應商,擁有以安全行動交易為核心的獨特且具競爭力的特許經營權。
Finally, the revenue in the communications infrastructure market was $1.3 billion, down 24% year-on-year. As we have said in the past, we anticipate flat growth over the longer term as the digital networking and RF Power business decelerate, which will be offset by growth in our secure card business, which includes our UCODE RFID tagging solutions.
最後,通訊基礎設施市場的收入為 13 億美元,年減 24%。正如我們過去所說,由於數位網路和射頻功率業務成長放緩,我們預計長期成長將趨於平穩,但安全卡業務(包括我們的 UCODE RFID 標籤解決方案)的成長將抵消這一影響。
Now I will turn to our expectations for the first quarter. Our forecast for the first quarter is better than we anticipated 90 days ago. We expect all regions and all end markets to be up year-on year. We're guiding first quarter revenue to $3.15 billion, up 11% versus the year ago period and seasonally down 6% sequentially.
現在我將談談我們對第一季的預期。我們對第一季的預測比90天前的預期好。我們預計所有地區和所有終端市場都將實現同比增長。我們預計第一季營收為 31.5 億美元,比去年同期成長 11%,季減 6%(受季節性因素影響)。
Compared to 90 days ago, the improvements reflect steady inventory normalization in auto Tier 1s, broadening order strength across both core industrial and consumer and IoT and program ramps in the premium mobile market consistent with seasonal patterns. Our guide does not assume broad-based restocking. At the midpoint, we expect the following trends in our business during Q1.
與 90 天前相比,這些改善反映了汽車一級供應商庫存的穩定正常化,核心工業、消費和物聯網領域的訂單實力擴大,以及高端移動市場的項目規模擴大,這些都與季節性模式相符。我們的指南並未假設大規模補給。預計第一季中期,我們的業務將呈現以下趨勢。
Automotive is expected to be up in the mid-single-digit versus Q1 2025 and down in the mid-single-digit percent range versus Q4 2025. I would like to highlight that our first quarter revenue guidance only includes about $25 million or one-month of revenue contribution from the MEMS sensor business. Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the low 20% range year-on-year and down in the mid-single-digit range versus Q4 2025. Mobile is expected to be up in the mid-teen percent range year-on-year and down in the 20% range on a sequential basis.
預計汽車產業將比 2025 年第一季成長 5% 左右,比 2025 年第四季下降 5% 左右。我想強調的是,我們第一季的收入預期僅包括 MEMS 感測器業務約 2,500 萬美元或一個月的收入貢獻。預計工業和物聯網的年增長率將達到 20% 左右,但與 2025 年第四季相比,將下降個位數百分比。預計行動業務年增將達到 15% 左右,環比下降將達到 20% 左右。
And finally, Communication Infrastructure and Other is expected to be up in the mid-teen percent range versus Q1 2025 and up 10% versus Q4 2025. In summary, our first quarter outlook reflects early validation of the company-specific growth drivers we've been investing in, and we expect these trends to continue throughout 2026. We believe the NXP-specific secular drivers for our business are now outweighing the broader industry cyclical headwinds, which we have experienced over the last few years.
最後,通訊基礎設施及其他預計將比 2025 年第一季成長 15% 左右,比 2025 年第四季成長 10%。總而言之,我們第一季的展望反映了我們一直在投資的公司特定成長驅動因素的初步驗證,我們預計這些趨勢將在 2026 年繼續下去。我們相信,NXP 特有的長期發展動力現在已經超過了過去幾年我們所經歷的更廣泛的產業週期性不利因素。
Overall, we expect product mix and disciplined cost execution to continue to support our gross and operating margin framework. We're focused on disciplined investment and portfolio enhancements to drive profitable growth, while maintaining control over the factors we can influence.
總體而言,我們預計產品組合和嚴格的成本控制將繼續支撐我們的毛利率和營業利潤率框架。我們專注於穩健的投資和投資組合優化,以推動獲利成長,同時保持對我們能夠影響的因素的控制。
Our capital allocation framework is unchanged; invest for growth, pursue targeted M&A to strengthen the portfolio and return excess cash through dividends and buybacks within our long-term model. And now I would like to pass the call to Bill for a review of our financial performance.
我們的資本配置架構保持不變;投資以實現成長,進行有針對性的併購以加強投資組合,並在我們的長期模式下透過股利和股票回購返還多餘的現金。現在我想把電話交給比爾,讓他來回顧我們的財務表現。
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Rafael, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Rafael has already covered the drivers of the revenue, I will move to the financial highlights. Overall, our results reflect the strength of our strategic priorities in our end markets, our disciplined investment in manufacturing and product leadership and our consistent commitment to generating long-term shareholder value.
謝謝你,拉斐爾,也祝今天參加電話會議的各位早安。由於 Rafael 已經介紹了收入的驅動因素,我將轉向財務亮點。整體而言,我們的業績反映了我們在終端市場策略重點的優勢、我們在製造和產品領先地位方面的嚴謹投資,以及我們為創造長期股東價值而做出的持續承諾。
Q4 was solid with strong execution and results above the midpoint of guidance. Revenue, gross profit and operating profit were all back into our long-term financial model. We delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.35 or $0.07 better than the midpoint of guidance. Non-GAAP gross profit was $1.91 billion with a 57.4% non-GAAP gross margin, a slight miss versus guidance, driven by stronger-than-expected mobile revenue.
第四季業績穩健,執行力強,結果高於預期中位數。收入、毛利和營業利潤都重新納入了我們的長期財務模型。我們實現了非GAAP每股收益3.35美元,比預期中位數高出0.07美元。非GAAP毛利為19.1億美元,非GAAP毛利率為57.4%,略低於預期,主要得益於行動業務收入強於預期。
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $756 million or 22.7% of revenue. The primary increase sequentially is driven by our two new acquisitions, where we continue to make space for our strategic investments, offset by restructuring actions. Non-GAAP operating profit was $1.15 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 34.6%, up 80 basis points sequentially.
非GAAP營運費用為7.56億美元,佔營收的22.7%。環比成長的主要驅動力是我們兩項新的收購,我們繼續為策略投資騰出空間,但部分成長被重組措施所抵消。非GAAP營業利潤為11.5億美元,非GAAP營業利益率為34.6%,較上季成長80個基點。
Below the line, non-GAAP interest expense was $99 million, and taxes were $190 million. Noncontrolling interest was a $13 million expense and results from equity-accounted investees was a $1 million loss. Taken together, the below-the-line items were $4 million better than our guidance. While stock-based compensation, which is not in our non-GAAP earnings, was $100 million, $18 million lower than guidance, driven by the retirement of several executives.
其中,非GAAP利息支出為9,900萬美元,稅金為1.9億美元。少數股東權益支出 1,300 萬美元,權益法核算的投資公司虧損 100 萬美元。綜合來看,線下項目比我們預期高出 400 萬美元。雖然股票選擇權補償金(不計入我們的非GAAP收益)為1億美元,比預期低1800萬美元,這是由於幾位高階主管退休所致。
Turning to changes in cash, debt and capital returns. Our balance sheet remains strong, giving us the flexibility to invest in our strategic priorities and hybrid manufacturing plans. We ended Q4 with a $12.2 billion in total debt and $3.3 billion in cash, reflecting uses of cash for capital returns, acquisitions, joint venture investments and CapEx, offset by cash generation during the quarter.
接下來分析現金、債務和資本回報的變化。我們的資產負債表依然穩健,使我們能夠靈活地投資於我們的策略重點和混合製造計劃。在第四季末,我們的總債務為 122 億美元,現金為 33 億美元,這反映了現金用於資本回報、收購、合資投資和資本支出,但被本季產生的現金所抵銷。
Net debt was $8.96 billion, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.9 times, with adjusted EBITDA interest coverage ratio of 14.7 times. In Q4, we returned $338 million through buybacks and $254 million in dividends.
淨負債為 89.6 億美元,淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.9 倍,調整後 EBITDA 利息保障倍數為 14.7 倍。第四季度,我們透過股票回購返還了 3.38 億美元,並透過分紅返還了 2.54 億美元。
Over the last 10 years, we have returned over $23 billion to our shareholders or 95% of free cash flow and reduced our diluted share count by 27%. After Q4, we repurchased another $36 million under our 10b5-1 program. And on January 5, we redeemed the $500 million March 2026 notes with our cash on hand. Now turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 154 days, which included seven days of prebuild.
過去 10 年,我們已向股東返還超過 230 億美元,相當於自由現金流的 95%,並將稀釋後的股份數量減少了 27%。第四季結束後,我們根據 10b5-1 計畫回購了 3,600 萬美元。1 月 5 日,我們用手頭現金贖回了 5 億美元 2026 年 3 月到期的債券。現在來看營運資本指標。庫存週轉天數為 154 天,其中包括 7 天的預建期。
Receivables were 29 days; payables were 60 days. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 123 days. As revenue growth accelerates, we expect working capital efficiency, particularly days of inventory, including prebuilds to meaningfully improve throughout the year.
應收帳款週轉天數為 29 天;應付帳款週轉天數為 60 天。綜合來看,我們的現金週轉週期為 123 天。隨著營收成長加速,我們預期營運資本效率,特別是庫存週轉天數(包括預建庫存),將在全年顯著改善。
From a cash usage perspective, we continue to advance our long-term manufacturing strategy, including contributions to both VSMC and ESMC. This will lead to a long-term supply resiliency and strong gross margin expansion. Cash f low from operations was $891 million and net CapEx was $98 million, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $793 million or 24% of revenue. We invested $195 million in long-term capacity access fees, made a $282 million equity payment to VSMC and a $44 million equity payment to ESMC.
從現金使用角度來看,我們將繼續推進我們的長期製造策略,包括向VSMC和ESMC注資。這將帶來長期的供應韌性和強勁的毛利率成長。經營活動產生的現金流為 8.91 億美元,淨資本支出為 9,800 萬美元,由此產生的非 GAAP 自由現金流為 7.93 億美元,佔收入的 24%。我們投資了 1.95 億美元用於長期容量接取費,向 VSMC 支付了 2.82 億美元的股權,向 ESMC 支付了 4,400 萬美元的股權。
Taken together, we are about 50% through the investment cycle for both VSMC and ESMC, having invested about $1.7 billion of the $3.4 billion planned investments. We expect the majority of remaining investments will occur in 2026. Now turning to our expectations for Q1. We expect revenue of $3.15 billion, plus or minus $100 million, up 11% year-on-year and down 6% sequentially, which is better than our view 90 days ago.
總的來說,VSMC 和 ESMC 的投資週期已完成約 50%,在計畫投資 34 億美元中已投資約 17 億美元。我們預計剩餘的大部分投資將在 2026 年進行。現在來談談我們對第一季的預期。我們預計營收為 31.5 億美元,上下浮動 1 億美元,年增 11%,環比下降 6%,比我們 90 天前的預期要好。
We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 57%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be $765 million, plus or minus $10 million, reflecting normal seasonal increases at the start of the year. We are committed to our long-term operating expense model of 23% of revenue, though there are seasonal variations with the first half of the year normally higher than the second half, resulting in non-GAAP operating margin of 32.7% at the midpoint.
我們預期非GAAP毛利率為57%,上下浮動50個基點。預計營運費用為 7.65 億美元,上下浮動 1000 萬美元,反映了年初正常的季節性成長。我們致力於維持長期營運費用佔收入 23% 的模式,儘管季節性波動,上半年通常高於下半年,導致非 GAAP 營運利潤率中點為 32.7%。
Below the line, we expect non-GAAP financial expense to be about $92 million and our non-GAAP tax rate to be 18%. Noncontrolling interest expense will be $11 million with our joint venture start-up losses of about $3 million. Stock-based compensation should be about $108 million, which is not included in our non GAAP guidance. This implies Q1 non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.97 at the midpoint.
在財務報表下方,我們預期非GAAP財務費用約為9,200萬美元,非GAAP稅率為18%。非控制權益支出將為 1,100 萬美元,加上合資企業啟動虧損約 300 萬美元,總計將產生 1,100 萬美元的支出。股票選擇權補償金約為 1.08 億美元,這並未計入我們的非 GAAP 指引值中。這意味著第一季非GAAP每股收益中位數為2.97美元。
Turning to the uses of cash in Q1. We expect capital expenditures to be approximately 3% of revenue, our capacity access fee payment of $190 million and an equity investment into VSMC of $210 million. Before turning to your questions, I have a few housekeeping items to highlight.
接下來我們來看看第一季現金的用途。我們預計資本支出將佔營收的約 3%,容量接取費支付額為 1.9 億美元,對 VSMC 的股權投資為 2.1 億美元。在回答你們的問題之前,我先強調幾項注意事項。
After thoughtful consideration, we have decided that our RF Power business no longer aligns with our long-term strategic direction. Consequently, we will stop new product development and have taken an approximately $90 million restructuring charge, which is reflected in our fourth quarter GAAP results. We will direct our focus -- we will redirect and focus our R&D resources to accelerate and enhance our strategic priorities towards software-defined vehicles and physical AI.
經過深思熟慮,我們決定射頻功率業務不再符合我們的長期策略方向。因此,我們將停止新產品開發,並提列約 9,000 萬美元的重組費用,這反映在我們第四季的 GAAP 業績中。我們將調整研發重點,集中研發資源,加速推進並加強我們在軟體定義汽車和實體人工智慧領域的策略重點。
Yesterday, after the market closed, STMicroelectronics announced the closure of NXP's MEMS sensor business acquisition. This is a positive transaction for both parties. NXP received $900 million in gross proceeds with another $50 million to be received upon completion of certain closing conditions. We will recognize a onetime gain of approximately $630 million from the sale of the business, which is reflected in our first quarter's GAAP guidance.
昨天收盤後,義法半導體宣布完成對恩智浦半導體MEMS感測器業務的收購。這對雙方來說都是一筆有利的交易。NXP 已收到 9 億美元的總收益,另有 5,000 萬美元將在滿足某些交割條件後收到。我們將確認出售該業務帶來的約 6.3 億美元的一次性收益,這已反映在我們第一季的 GAAP 指引中。
Next, we have made the decision to shift our geographic revenue reporting to headquarter-based region as opposed to a shift to basis. We believe reporting headquarter based region better reflects how we manage the business internally and where customer engagements and design win awards occur. The 2025 change can be found in the posted IR presentation.
接下來,我們決定將地理收入報告方式改為以總部所在地為基準的區域,而不是以基數為基準。我們認為,以總部所在地為報告區域能更能反映我們內部的業務管理方式,以及客戶互動和設計獲獎的發生地。2025 年的變化可以在已發布的投資者關係簡報中找到。
And finally, based on the positive trends, including current order rates and business signals we track, we are confident NXP will operate within its long-term financial model for the full year of 2026.
最後,根據我們追蹤的當前訂單率和業務訊號等正面趨勢,我們有信心恩智浦將在 2026 年全年按照其長期財務模式運作。
In closing, we are well positioned to benefit from the powerful secular trends in our four focused end markets. We are confident about the strategic priorities and investments we are making across our entire portfolio and manufacturing footprint. With a strong balance sheet and a disciplined capital return philosophy, we are exceptionally well positioned to drive long-term value for our shareholders.
總而言之,我們已做好充分準備,將從我們重點關注的四個終端市場的強勁長期趨勢中獲益。我們對公司在整個產品組合和生產佈局中採取的策略重點和投資充滿信心。憑藉著穩健的資產負債表和嚴謹的資本回報概念,我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢,能夠為股東創造長期價值。
Now I would like to turn it back to the operator for your questions.
現在我想把麥克風交還給接線員,回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Tom O'Malley, Barclays.
湯姆·奧馬利,巴克萊銀行。
Thomas O'Malley - Analyst
Thomas O'Malley - Analyst
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the channel restock. So it looks like you guys went from nine to 10 weeks. In your guidance, you're saying no additional restock kind of baked in. Could you talk about where you are with the channel today? What you saw in the last quarter? And is it the decision to just not go to 11 weeks overall? Or is it just we're going to wait a little bit until we take it to the 11 weeks that we talked about previously? Thank you.
各位好,感謝你們回答我的問題。我想詢問一下頻道補貨的情況。看來你們的療程從九週延長到了十週。你的指引中似乎暗示不會再進行額外的補貨。能談談目前頻道的發展狀況嗎?上個季度你看到了什麼?難道就是決定不進行為期 11 週的試驗嗎?還是我們只是要再等一段時間,直到達到我們之前討論過的 11 週?謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Tom. Let me take that one. This is Rafael. Clearly, I mean, I would say that our channel strategy has shifted from what before we consider tight control to ensure that we stage the right product, the right product to satisfy demand. We are moving to our long-term target of 11 weeks. And the reason we're doing that is because it is a reflection of an improving demand environment for us. We finished Q4 with about 10 weeks. We will move into our long-term plan and long-term target of 11 weeks into 2026. And that's how we are going to manage our business in a steady state.
謝謝你,湯姆。讓我來做吧。這是拉斐爾。顯然,我的意思是,我們的通路策略已經從以前嚴格控制以確保推出合適的產品來滿足需求的方式發生了轉變。我們正朝著11週的長期目標邁進。我們這樣做的原因是,這反映了我們市場需求環境的改善。第四季結束還有大約 10 週。我們將進入長期計劃,並在 2026 年 11 週內實現長期目標。這就是我們維持業務穩定發展的方式。
Thomas O'Malley - Analyst
Thomas O'Malley - Analyst
Got you. And then as a follow-up, just on the comms business. So you're deciding to move away from RF, but you had already kind of moved away from digital networking. You're guiding that business up 10%. Could you maybe walk through the moving pieces? Obviously, with digital networking coming down, you needed to see some really -- some strength from maybe the SIS business. Just walk through what's contributing to that Q1 strength. Thank you.
抓到你了。然後,作為後續,就通訊業務而言。所以你們決定放棄射頻技術,但你們其實已經逐漸放棄了數位網路技術。你引導該業務成長了 10%。能否詳細介紹一下各個環節?顯然,隨著數位網路的衰落,我們需要看到一些真正的東西——一些來自SIS業務的強勁表現。簡單分析一下是什麼因素促成了第一季的強勁表現。謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes, indeed, we did guide C&I about 10% sequentially in Q1. And if you remember, C&I includes three distinct businesses, secure cards, digital networks and RF Power. And they -- all of these three businesses can move differently quarter-to-quarter. And C&I, I think, right now is benefiting from the fact that, one, there is normalization in the digital networking business. but there's growth coming from the secure card, and that strength really will benefit C&I throughout 2026.
是的,我們確實預計第一季 C&I 將環比成長約 10%。如果你還記得的話,C&I 包括三個不同的業務部門:安全卡、數位網路和射頻功率。而且,這三家企業每季的發展都可能不同。我認為,目前工商業領域正受益於兩方面因素:一是數位網路業務的正常化;二是安全卡帶來的成長,而這種成長動能將在2026年之前持續惠及工商業領域。
Thomas O'Malley - Analyst
Thomas O'Malley - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Matthew Prisco, Cantor.
馬修·普里斯科,領唱。
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. I guess starting with the cyclical side, can you maybe offer some more color on customer ordering trends over the past few months? And maybe what type of linearity you saw through the quarter and into 1Q?
各位好,感謝你們回答問題。我想先從週期性方面說起,您能否詳細介紹一下過去幾個月的客戶訂購趨勢?那麼,您在本季以及第一季觀察到的線性趨勢是什麼?
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Matt, are you asking about the kind of the trends that we track internally? Is that what you're asking? We couldn't quite hear your question. We apologize.
馬特,你是問我們內部追蹤的那類趨勢嗎?你問的是這個嗎?我們沒聽清楚您的問題。我們深表歉意。
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Yes, that's exactly it. The trends that you track internally when you look at just customer ordering trends over those past few months and then linearity through the quarter and into 1Q?
沒錯,就是這樣。當您查看過去幾個月的客戶訂單趨勢,以及該趨勢在整個季度和第一季的線性變化時,您在內部追蹤的趨勢是什麼?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. Linearity, we don't disclose, but I think Bill will take the -- some of the other metrics we track.
是的。線性度方面,我們不予公開,但我認為比爾會接受——我們追蹤的其他一些指標。
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. No, no. Obviously, over the quarter and the last 90 days ago, all our internal signals that we talked about in the past have improved. So think about our backlog, our distribution backlog, our customer escalations have increased. The short-term orders continue to increase as well, and we try to service as much as possible related to that. So across the board, we haven't seen anything like this in quite a while. And so we feel very confident about being in our long-term business model for 2026.
是的。不,不。顯然,在過去一個季度和過去的 90 天裡,我們之前討論過的所有內部指標都得到了改善。所以想想我們的積壓訂單、我們的配送積壓訂單、我們的客戶投訴升級情況,這些都增加了。短期訂單也持續增加,我們會盡力滿足所有相關需求。總的來說,我們已經很久沒有看到這樣的情況了。因此,我們對2026年的長期商業模式充滿信心。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
And maybe I'll just add one thing, Bill. If you kind of step back, Matt, look at kind of the trends in the second half of '25, they truly started to accelerate, and we're close to our growth rates that we presented at our Analyst Day. We believe that will continue as we progress through '26. So we're feeling pretty optimistic that we are off the trough of the business. Did you have a follow up?
或許我還要補充一點,比爾。馬特,如果你退後一步,看看 2025 年下半年的發展趨勢,它們確實開始加速,我們已經接近了我們在分析師日上提出的成長率。我們相信,隨著2026年的推進,這種情況將會持續下去。所以我們相當樂觀地認為,我們已經走出了業務低谷。您有後續跟進嗎?
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Yes, please. I guess on the auto side, I would love if you can offer some detail on the demand dynamics within your core auto business versus your accelerated growth drivers. And have you seen any impact to date from component price increases potentially pressuring unit demand there? Thanks.
好的,謝謝。我想就汽車業務方面而言,如果您能詳細介紹一下您核心汽車業務的需求動態以及加速成長驅動因素,那就太好了。到目前為止,您是否看到零件價格上漲可能對單位需求造成任何壓力?謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. So we -- I think there are a few questions there on auto. If you look at what happened -- if you look at auto and the reason why we remain quite optimistic in auto in Q4, our business returned to growth year-on-year. And the guide that we provided continues year-on-year, the Q1 guide gives you growth as well year-on-year. And so -- and what we see is our thesis remains unchanged with respect to content gain. You asked me about pricing. Second question was on pricing. VPAs for the most part are done, right, with -- in the pricing that is already reflected in our Q1 guide. And we are modeling low single-digit price declines, and that's what we see not only in auto but across the business.
是的。所以——我認為關於汽車方面還有一些問題。如果你看看發生了什麼事——如果你看看汽車產業,以及我們對第四季汽車產業保持樂觀的原因,那就是我們的業務恢復了同比成長。我們提供的指南逐年更新,第一季指南也顯示同比增長。因此──我們看到,關於內容增益的論點仍然沒有改變。你問我價格方面的問題。第二個問題是關於定價的。VPA 大部分已經完成,對吧? ——這已經反映在我們第一季的定價指南中了。我們預測價格將出現個位數百分比的下降,這種情況不僅出現在汽車產業,也出現在整個產業。
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Matthew Prisco - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.
羅斯·西摩,德意志銀行。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Hi guys, thanks for asking a question. Just sticking on the auto side of things, it's been pretty much flat for a couple of two, three years in a row. And I know there's been a bunch of puts and takes on inventory and demand, et cetera. But I really wanted to dive into what you've seen over that period of time in your accelerated growth drivers. Is anything changing your thesis there? Are you more optimistic, less optimistic? Any sort of clarifications there, especially as we move forward, hopefully, the headwinds are done. And so I just want to judge the growth rate from those drivers going forward. Thank you.
大家好,感謝你們提問。單就汽車業而言,已經連續兩三年基本上保持平穩了。我知道庫存和需求等方面已經發生了很多波動。但我真的很想深入了解一下,在這段時間裡,您在加速成長的驅動因素方面看到了什麼。有什麼因素會改變你的論點嗎?你比較樂觀還是不太樂觀?任何需要澄清的地方,尤其是在我們向前邁進的過程中,希望所有的阻力都已經過去。因此,我只想根據這些驅動因素來判斷未來的成長率。謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. Thanks, Ross. So I think what I said on the prepared remarks, right, auto and our business in general in 2025 was a story of two halves in the first half was all about inventory digestion, and it really mask the true dynamics of our business. For the full year, the auto accelerated drivers were slightly below model. Remember, model, we said that we were going to grow 8% to 12%, but they were still growing in a year where auto was flat. And they were about 10%, and it was all led by our SDV efforts, our radar and our productivity.
是的。謝謝你,羅斯。所以我覺得我在準備好的演講稿中說的是,對吧,2025 年汽車行業和我們整體的業務發展將分為兩個階段,前半部分完全是關於庫存消化,這實際上掩蓋了我們業務的真實動態。全年來看,自動加速駕駛者的表現略低於模型。記住,模型,我們說過我們會成長 8% 到 12%,但即使在汽車產業持平的一年裡,他們仍然實現了成長。約佔 10%,這完全得益於我們的 SDV 工作、我們的雷達和我們的生產力。
What you see right now in auto is that auto is shifting, our auto exposure is shifting to more and more structural and less cyclical. And it's driven by tying our road map towards secular trends and really transforming the architectures of auto. So we feel quite optimistic. We -- the answer to the question on the core drivers, the whole story, the thesis is completely intact, and we feel stronger than ever that our road map is really addressing the needs of the market.
你現在看到的汽車產業正在轉變,我們對汽車產業的投資正越來越多地轉向結構性因素,而週期性因素則越來越少。而推動這目標的動力,就是將我們的發展路線圖與長期趨勢結合,真正改變汽車的架構。所以我們感到相當樂觀。我們——關於核心驅動因素的問題的答案,整個故事,論點完全完整,我們比以往任何時候都更加確信,我們的路線圖真正滿足了市場的需求。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Great, thanks for that. And I guess you had the MEMS divestiture and now the exit of the RF side of things. Can you aggregate how much of a headwind those exits are going to be for this year? And I obviously know where the RF sits, but is the MEMS headwind in the auto side? Just want to kind of make sure to level set on that.
太好了,謝謝。我想你們已經剝離了 MEMS 業務,現在又退出了射頻業務。你能總結一下這些退出今年會造成多大的不利影響嗎?我當然知道射頻技術處於什麼位置,但是MEMS技術在汽車領域是否處於劣勢?我只是想確認一下這一點。
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. The way to think about -- this is Bill, Ross. The way to think about the sensor's divestment, it runs around $300 million per year. And Rafael shared, we recognized $25 million in the first quarter. And I think you guys can do the math of the impact that has from a year-over-year compare in our auto end market. Related to the RF business, the RF business is probably going to track similar to what DN did. If you recall, our digital networking business when we walked away from it, I don't know, 8 years ago, it lives quite long.
當然。思考的方式——這是比爾,羅斯。從這個角度來看,感測器剝離的成本約為每年 3 億美元。拉斐爾表示,我們在第一季確認了 2,500 萬美元的收入。我認為你們可以計算出,這對我們汽車終端市場同比變化的影響有多大。就射頻業務而言,其發展軌跡可能與DN類似。如果你還記得的話,我們放棄的數位網路業務,大概是8年前吧,它存活的時間相當長。
And so what we're actually doing is stop investing next-generation products. So that will probably stay with us for at least the next two years is what we're projecting at the current rate. And I think, Jeff, if we had to break out 2025 as a percentage of comms infra pieces, I don't have that at my fingertips, so we can't really share that, but maybe you can share how the three businesses fared in 2025 to get the size of it.
所以,我們其實是在停止對下一代產品的投資。所以以目前的速度,我們預計這種情況至少會持續兩年。傑夫,我想,如果我們要把 2025 年通訊基礎設施的佔比細分出來,我手頭沒有相關數據,所以我們無法分享,但也許你可以分享一下這三家企業在 2025 年的經營狀況,以便了解其規模。
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Sure. Well, so the secure cards business was just over 50% and both the digital network and RF Power businesses were each about 25%.
當然。安全卡業務佔比略高於 50%,數位網路和射頻功率業務各佔比約為 25%。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thanks, Ross.
謝謝你,羅斯。
Operator
Operator
Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.
喬摩爾,摩根士丹利。
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Great. Thank you. Great. In the auto business, there's been a number of sort of the supply disruptions. We had Nexperia a few months ago causing issues. DDR4 now is causing some shortages. Is that impacting you guys in any way? Are you seeing either weaker demand because they're bottlenecked by those things? Or is there any desire for Tier 1s to start building inventory to react to any of those things?
偉大的。謝謝。偉大的。汽車產業出現了一些供應鏈中斷的情況。幾個月前我們用過Nexperia的服務,當時出了問題。DDR4記憶體目前出現了一些短缺。這是否對你們有任何影響?您是否發現這些因素會導致供應瓶頸,造成需求疲軟?或者說,一級供應商是否有意願開始建立庫存以應對上述任何情況?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. I'm going to take that, Joe. So the Nexperia is not a conversation. It's not been a nonissue for NXP. The discussions on memory, there's always -- the chatter on memory is not just in auto, it's across our end markets. We have not seen memory impact the orders of our customers. But clearly, it's a conversation that our customers discuss with us as an area of concern for the second half of the year, but nothing has been reflected in orders.
是的。我接受這個提議,喬。所以Nexperia項目不值得討論。對恩智浦半導體來說,這並非無關緊要的問題。關於記憶體的討論一直不斷——關於記憶體的討論不僅限於汽車產業,而是遍及我們的所有終端市場。我們尚未發現記憶體使用情況對客戶訂單產生影響。但顯然,這是我們的客戶在下半年關注的一個領域,他們與我們討論了這個問題,但訂單中卻沒有任何跡象表明存在這個問題。
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Great, thank you for that. And then in your auto business, any difference by region? I guess there's been some concern about China demand. Just anything you're seeing regionally in your auto business.
太好了,謝謝你。那麼,在你們的汽車業務中,不同地區之間是否存在差異?我猜想大家對中國的需求有些擔憂。就是你在汽車產業中遇到的任何區域性問題。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
No. We don't see anything particular to comment on. I think the auto business, we believe it is going to be within model for 2026 for us. It's strong that the accelerated growth drivers are executing. So we expect our thesis to continue towards 2026.
不。我們覺得沒有什麼特別值得評論的。我認為汽車業務,我們相信它將符合我們2026年的發展模式。加速成長的驅動因素正在有效發揮作用,這一點非常顯著。因此,我們預計我們的論點將持續到 2026 年。
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.
Joshua Buchalter,TD Cowen。
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
Hey guys, thank you for taking my question. I apologize for a bit of a nitpicky semantic one, but it's one I've gotten a couple of times. So in your prepared remarks, you said for 2026, you expect to operate within your target model this year. I think you're -- given the -- where we ended 2025 to hit your 6% to 10% long-term CAGR, '26 and 2027 would have to be higher than that. Are you guys suggesting like this year is within the 6% to 10%? Or are you saying that you should track towards the 6% to 10% over a three-year period in '26 and '27?
各位好,感謝你們回答我的問題。我為這種吹毛求疵的語意錯誤道歉,但我已經遇到過好幾次這種情況了。所以,您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到,對於 2026 年,您預計今年將按照您設定的目標模式運作。我認為,鑑於我們 2025 年底的業績,要達到 6% 至 10% 的長期複合年增長率,2026 年和 2027 年的成長率必須高於這個數字。你們的意思是說今年的成長率在 6% 到 10% 之間嗎?或者您的意思是,您應該在 2026 年和 2027 年的三年內,朝著 6% 到 10% 的目標邁進?
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think, Josh, what we're saying is the long-term model is intact. I think it not to be a nit piggyback that I think you know how to do math, and you can probably do the chains all on that. But we feel very strongly that after the inventory digestion in the first half of '25, things are starting to reaccelerate. So we'll leave it there. Did you have a follow-up?
我認為,喬希,我們想表達的是,長期模式仍然完好無損。我覺得這不算吹毛求疵,但我認為你懂數學,而且你大概能用這些知識把鍊式反應都解決掉。但我們強烈認為,在 2025 年上半年庫存消化後,情況正在重新加速。我們就先說到這裡吧。您有後續跟進嗎?
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Yes. Can you maybe provide some more puts and takes on gross margin for the first quarter, in particular, how are you thinking about utilization rates as we sort of enter a better cyclical period? I know there were some die bank builds that boosted utilization rates at the end of the year. Are those done? How should we think about utilization rates from here?
是的。您能否就第一季的毛利率再做一些預測,特別是,隨著我們進入一個相對改善的周期期,您如何看待產能利用率?我知道年底有一些晶片庫建設提高了晶片利用率。這些都做完了嗎?接下來我們該如何看待利用率?
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, let me take that one. So I would say gross margins are performing to our expectations into Q1. And this is primarily driven by our annual low single-digit price concessions that Rafael shared, and that is offset only partially from our normal operational efficiencies that we regained back throughout the year. And again, I think for modeling purposes, the best way to think about our gross margins, use that rule of thumb I've provided in the past for every $1 billion of revenue.
好的,那我來做吧。所以我認為第一季的毛利率符合我們的預期。這主要是由於拉斐爾與我們分享了每年較低的個位數價格讓步,而這只能部分抵消我們全年恢復的正常營運效率。再次強調,我認為為了建模的目的,考慮毛利率的最佳方法是使用我過去提供的經驗法則,即每 10 億美元的收入。
We're entitled approximately 100 basis point expansion gain to our gross margin on a full year basis. And of course, that's the plus or minus normal mix changes that we share on a quarterly basis. Now as shared in the past, we will continue to work on mixing up our portfolio through our new product introductions. Also, we're focused on our go-to-market for that long tail, which tends to be a richer mix.
以全年計算,我們的毛利率將獲得約 100 個基點的成長。當然,這指的是我們按季度公佈的正常成分變動(正負值)。正如之前所說,我們將繼續透過推出新產品來豐富我們的產品組合。此外,我們也專注於開拓長尾市場,因為長尾市場的產品組合往往更豐富。
We also have the ability to improve our internal front-end utilizations. The front end utilizations in Q4 were in the high 70s. And in Q1, they will remain in the high 70s. Obviously, if we get any inflationary costs that we can't offset internally, we will protect our gross margins and pass those on to our customers. And as you know, we always do the normal blocking and tackling on improving our yields and test time reductions.
我們還有能力提高內部前端利用率。第四季前端利用率在70%以上。第一季度,這一數字將維持在70%以上。顯然,如果我們遇到任何無法在內部抵消的通貨膨脹成本,我們將保護我們的毛利率,並將這些成本轉嫁給我們的客戶。如您所知,我們一直在努力提高產量和縮短測試時間。
Now longer term, we're quite excited on our hybrid manufacturing strategy, especially when VSMC is fully loaded in 2028, it is on track. And beyond, we expect our gross margins to be lifted by another 200 basis points at the company level. So I would say, in general, we are very committed to improving our gross margins over the long term. Related to inventory question, again, our prebuilds were $7 million to think -- seven days, sorry, at the end of the 2025.
從長遠來看,我們對混合製造策略感到非常興奮,特別是當VSMC在2028年全面投產時,一切都在按計畫進行。此外,我們預計公司層級的毛利率將再提高 200 個基點。因此,總的來說,我們致力於長期提高毛利率。關於庫存問題,再次說明,我們的預建項目價值 700 萬美元,預計在 2025 年底完成——抱歉,是七天。
As you all know, our consolidation efforts in our manufacturing footprint are underway. I would expect the prebuild by the end of 2026 be about 15 to 20 days related to that. But including those prebuilds, we also expect to take our net inventory days down throughout the year as we continue to focus on what's in our control and do the right thing operationally to give you some more color on where we plan to take internal inventory.
如大家所知,我們正在進行生產佈局的整合工作。我預計到 2026 年底,預建置工作大約需要 15 到 20 天。但包括這些預建項目在內,我們也預計全年淨庫存週轉天數會減少,因為我們將繼續專注於我們可控的因素,並在營運方面做正確的事情,以便讓您更清楚地了解我們計劃如何進行內部庫存管理。
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
I appreciate all the detail there, Bill. Thank you.
比爾,我非常欣賞你提供的所有細節。謝謝。
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thanks for taking my, question. On the Industrial and IoT segment, Rafael, I was hoping you could help segment how much of that is industrial, how much of that is IoT? And off of easier compares, the growth rate is very high at the start of the year. But should we expect that this segment will also be in model for 2026? Just how are you looking at the potential growth scenarios for industrial and IoT this year?
謝謝你回答我的問題。Rafael,關於工業和物聯網領域,我希望你能幫我細分其中有多少是工業領域,有多少是物聯網領域?如果以更容易比較的數據為基準,年初的成長率非常高。但我們是否可以預期這一部分也會出現在 2026 年的車款中?您如何看待今年工業和物聯網的潛在成長前景?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. Thank you, Vivek. So yes, very strong growth that we're seeing right now in industrial, right? And the growth, you saw the industrial begin recovering in Q3 and continue into Q4. I think Q4 was 20% year-on-year growth. The growth is fairly broad-based, and there's not a single segment that is driving the growth. Just to give you an answer on the question specific, we have about 60% of our business there is core industrial, 40% is in the consumer side.
是的。謝謝你,維韋克。是的,我們目前在工業領域看到了非常強勁的成長,對吧?成長方面,工業從第三季開始復甦,並持續到第四季。我認為第四季度同比增長了20%。這種成長基礎相當廣泛,並沒有哪個單一領域在推動成長。針對您提出的具體問題,我們大約 60% 的業務是核心工業領域,40% 是消費領域。
But the growth is broad-based. But we saw -- I mean, I would give you -- we have some notable traction on a few sockets in health care and smart glasses. We've seen strength in factory automation and energy storage. And so very, very strong design wins with very differentiated products that we have in industrial and IoT. And that strength, of course, in 2025 continues in 2026. I mean you see the Q1 guide was also growing year-on-year 20%. And we feel very good about 2026 for industrial and IoT.
但這種增長是廣泛的。但我們看到——我的意思是,我承認——我們在醫療保健和智慧眼鏡的一些領域取得了一些顯著進展。我們看到了工廠自動化和儲能領域的優勢。因此,憑藉我們在工業和物聯網領域擁有的差異化產品,強大的設計實力才能贏得市場。當然,這種強勁勢頭在2025年延續到了2026年。我的意思是,你看,第一季的業績指引也比去年同期成長了 20%。我們對2026年工業和物聯網的發展前景非常樂觀。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Got it. And for my follow-up, I would be remiss not to ask the seasonality question as we look at Q2 and Q3. And I ask that just because of all the kind of the exits and things that you're considering this year. So based on historical patterns and normalizing for all your business divestitures, what would you consider normal seasonal trends in Q2, Q3? And are there any other things this year that we should take into account as we model your quarterly cadence this year? Thank you.
知道了。最後,在展望第二季和第三季時,我不得不提出季節性問題。我這麼問是因為今年你們正在考慮各種各樣的退出方式和事情。因此,根據歷史模式並對所有業務剝離進行標準化處理後,您認為第二季和第三季的正常季節性趨勢是什麼?今年在製定貴公司今年的季度節奏模型時,還有其他需要考慮的因素嗎?謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vivek, we're not going to give you guidance beyond Q1. But one of the things that you should take away, things have gotten better since 90 days ago. And Bill referred to the order patterns that we have, visibility into Q1 improved as well. We have the conversations with our customers that we're having. It gives us optimism for the second half of the year.
維韋克,我們不會給你第一季之後的指導。但你應該記住的一點是,情況比90天前有所改善。比爾也提到了我們掌握的訂單模式,對第一季的可見度也有所提升。我們正在與客戶進行這樣的對話。這讓我們對下半年充滿信心。
So we like the momentum. We like the strength that we closed in 2025. I mean Q4, the growth was broad-based. And we like that momentum we enter 2026 because that momentum is also carrying also broad-based. And so -- and the way you should think about it, both in auto and industrial, the strength is increasingly structural rather than purely cyclical. And we feel good about the trajectory we're carrying here towards the second half of the year.
我們喜歡這種發展勢頭。我們對2025年結束時的強勁勢頭感到滿意。我的意思是,第四季成長是全面性的。我們喜歡進入 2026 年的這種勢頭,因為這種勢頭也具有廣泛的影響力。因此——你應該這樣想,無論是在汽車產業還是工業領域,這種優勢越來越體現為結構性優勢,而不是純粹的週期性優勢。我們對今年下半年的發展軌跡感到滿意。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.
喬·夸特羅奇,富國銀行。
Joseph Quatrochi - Analyst
Joseph Quatrochi - Analyst
Yes, thanks for taking the question. Yes. You talked about the acquisitions accelerating interest in your software-defined vehicle portfolio. Wondering if you could just kind of expand upon that or just what are the particulars that the customers are excited about?
是的,謝謝你回答這個問題。是的。您曾提到,這些收購加速了人們對您軟體定義汽車產品組合的興趣。不知道您能否再詳細說說,或具體說說顧客們對哪些方面感到興奮?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. So the three acquisitions there, [Luc], that we discussed. On the auto side, TTTech Auto has been really an injection of horsepower to accelerate our software-defined vehicle story. One of the deliverables that we have that are very important for us and for some of our customers is the deliverable of software-defined architecture will be delivering a system around Sonos towards the end of the year.
是的。所以,[Luc],我們討論過的這三項收購。在汽車領域,TTTech Auto 確實為我們加速軟體定義汽車的發展注入了強勁動力。我們交付成果中非常重要的一項,對我們以及我們的一些客戶而言,就是軟體定義架構的交付成果,我們將在年底前交付一個圍繞 Sonos 的系統。
And so TTTech Auto and the injection of the TTTech Auto is really accelerate our path into delivering a Sono architecture and Sonos systems by the end of the year. They also come in with a middleware and now we're a different middleware called MotionWise. And that engagement right now is on. We're taking -- I think the interest of our customers is quite high now that they move into SDVs.
因此,TTTech Auto 及其註入確實加快了我們實現 Sono 架構和 Sonos 系統的目標,目標是在年底前交付。他們還引入了一個中間件,而我們現在使用的是另一個名為 MotionWise 的中間件。目前,這項合作正在進行中。我認為,隨著客戶轉向 SDV,他們對 SDV 的興趣非常高。
On the industrial and IoT, in my prepared remarks, we talked about the interest level that our customers are now showing for physical AI and the capabilities that we have in our NXP platform. And I just want to double down on that. The interest in the combination of the Kinara MPU and the i.MX family of products that we have is really, really strong.
關於工業和物聯網,我在事先準備好的演講中談到了我們的客戶目前對實體人工智慧所表現出的興趣,以及我們在 NXP 平台上所擁有的能力。我只想加倍強調這一點。市場對 Kinara MPU 和我們擁有的 i.MX 系列產品的組合表現出了非常濃厚的興趣。
And the level of the conversations right now that we're having with our customers has changed significantly. The traction that we get has changed significantly. So we're excited right now in that engagement. And I think that it's going to result in strong design wins in 2026.
目前我們與客戶的對話層次發生了顯著變化。我們獲得的關注度已經發生了顯著變化。所以我們現在對這次合作感到非常興奮。我認為這將在 2026 年帶來強勁的設計獲獎。
Joseph Quatrochi - Analyst
Joseph Quatrochi - Analyst
Thanks for that. And then as a follow-up, on the automotive side, is there any color you can share just geographically on the demand you're seeing in the fourth quarter and then kind of what's embedded in 1Q?
謝謝。那麼,接下來我想問的是,在汽車行業方面,您能否根據地理情況,分享一下您在第四季度看到的需求情況,以及第一季蘊含的需求情況?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. On the auto side, I mean -- so I think this is an important question to just to give you a perspective. And let's look at the data closely in auto, right? The inventory correction, what we said is largely behind us. Q4, we returned year-on-year growth. Q4 auto finished within 1% of its prior peak in 2023. And we're guiding automotive to grow in Q1 year-over-year. And our guide in Q1 only includes one-month of the sensor business.
是的。就汽車方面而言,我的意思是——所以我認為這是一個重要的問題,只是想給你一個視角。讓我們仔細看看汽車產業的數據,對吧?我們之前說過,庫存調整已經基本結束了。第四季度,我們恢復了年成長。第四季汽車銷量與 2023 年的先前高峰僅相差 1%。我們預計汽車產業在第一季將實現同比成長。而我們第一季的指南僅包含一個月的感測器業務。
So the sequential decline, I think it would have been very close to normal seasonality. So regionally, not a whole lot of differences. Usually, in Q1, you have a normal seasonality because of -- because now the weight that China has in the market. But fundamentally, our thesis hasn't changed, right? The shift to SDVs, advanced ADAS, these are multiyear platform transitions, and they're going to drive constant growth. And this is what we, at NXP, are very strong portfolio.
所以,我認為這種連續下降的趨勢應該非常接近正常的季節性波動。所以從地域上看,差別並不大。通常情況下,第一季會有正常的季節性波動,因為——因為現在中國在市場上的影響力很大。但從根本上講,我們的論點並沒有改變,對吧?向 SDV、高級 ADAS 的轉變,這些都是需要多年時間才能完成的平台轉型,它們將推動持續成長。而這正是恩智浦擁有的非常強大的產品組合。
Joseph Quatrochi - Analyst
Joseph Quatrochi - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.
克里斯‧卡索,沃爾夫研究公司。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Yes, thank you. Good morning. If I could follow-up on auto again and specifically the areas of accelerated growth drivers. What you said last year is that those accelerated growth drivers were a bit below plan. And it sounds like the message is that is now likely to improve as you go into this year. What's the reason for that? What was the reason you believe it was below plan last year? And I guess the question is because going forward, it doesn't sound like you're assuming that SAAR improves. So what's driving the change that get those accelerated growth drivers back on track?
是的,謝謝。早安.如果我能再次跟進汽車產業,特別是加速成長的驅動因素領域,那就太好了。你去年說過,那些加速成長的驅動因素略低於預期。聽起來,這似乎意味著這種情況在今年會有所改善。原因是什麼?你認為去年業績低於預期目標的原因是什麼?我想這個問題的原因是,從長遠來看,你似乎不認為 SAAR 會改善。那麼,是什麼因素推動了這種變革,使這些加速成長的驅動因素重回正軌呢?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
So 2025, Chris, I mean, you remember, first half of the year was a tough year with a lot of inventory digestion. That period put a pause in some of the accelerated growth drivers because, for instance, some of the business-like radar got caught up into inventory digestion. Electrification got caught up into inventory digestion. It slowed down the ramp of new models that basically address some of the slow -- slightly less growth, I would say, in the SDV piece.
所以,克里斯,2025 年,我的意思是,你還記得,上半年是艱難的一年,需要消化大量的庫存。那段時間,一些加速成長的驅動因素停滯了,例如,一些商業化的雷達被庫存消化所吸引。電氣化過程被捲入了庫存消化過程。它減緩了新車型的推出速度,而這些新車型基本上是為了解決 SDV 文章中提到的增長緩慢(或者說增長略微放緩)的問題。
But we saw that second half accelerate. Once the inventory digestion, all the -- our thesis became true, right? The accelerated growth drivers started to grow. By the way, the accelerated growth drivers still grew in 2025. It just didn't grow at target because of the challenges that we have in the first half of the year. And now that thesis continues in 2026. We see our accelerated growth drivers now being within model and/or even better. And so we see that traction being in 2026 taking hold.
但我們看到下半場節奏加快了。一旦庫存消化完畢,所有的一切——我們的論點就都成立了,對吧?加速成長的驅動因素開始成長。順便一提,到 2025 年,加速成長的驅動因素仍保持成長。由於上半年面臨的挑戰,公司業績未能達到預期成長目標。而這論點在2026年仍然適用。我們看到,我們加速成長的驅動因素現在符合模型要求,甚至更好。因此,我們看到這種趨勢將在 2026 年得到鞏固。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Thank you. As a follow-up, if I could follow-up on operating margin expectations. And what you said for the year, returning to the long-term model, I assume that involves operating margins as well. I guess you've given some indication with regard to gross margins, but what does that mean for OpEx and operating leverage as you go forward through the year?
謝謝。作為後續問題,能否請您進一步說明營業利潤率預期?至於您提到的今年的長期模型,我假設其中也包括營業利潤率。我想你已經對毛利率給了一些指示,但隨著年數的增加,這對營運支出和經營槓桿意味著什麼?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes, sure. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks related to OpEx, typically, as expense as a percentage of revenue for the first half are typically higher than the second half, driven by our seasonal revenue profile. The timing effect of our US benefits at the start of the new year. That's why you see our guide up in Q1. Q2, I remind you; we have our Q2 annual merits and promotions. And then we also have, at the moment, that onetime IP license impact in Q2 that we previously shared that occurs every year.
當然可以。正如我在關於營運支出的準備發言中提到的那樣,通常情況下,由於我們的季節性收入狀況,上半年的支出佔收入的百分比通常高於下半年。新年伊始,我們美國福利的發放時間會產生影響。這就是為什麼您會在第一季看到我們的指南。Q2,我提醒各位;我們有第二季的年度績效考核和晉升。此外,目前我們還有先前提到的每年都會發生的、在第二季發生的一次性智慧財產權授權影響。
So we're typically out of model in the first half, but then we expect to get below that 23% model in the second half, leading to a full year of about 23% or below. Obviously, we'll always have leverage on the SG&A side of the house, but the investments that are required for SDVs and physical AI and where we want to take the company, we want to keep that at that 16% level, I would say, to make sure that we can capture that growth, that long-term growth that we're after. So for your modeling purposes, I gave you the gross margin. We gave you the revenue. Here's the OpEx I think you can get to the answer.
因此,我們通常在上半年無法達到模型預測值,但我們預計下半年將低於 23% 的模型預測值,從而導致全年成長率在 23% 左右或更低。顯然,我們在銷售、一般及行政費用方面始終擁有議價能力,但對於 SDV 和實體人工智慧所需的投資,以及我們希望公司發展的方向,我們希望將其保持在 16% 的水平,以確保我們能夠實現我們所追求的長期成長。所以為了方便你建模,我把毛利率給了你。我們已經把收入給你了。我認為以下營運成本資訊可以幫助您找到答案。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Thank you. That's all.
謝謝。就這樣。
Operator
Operator
Gary Mobley, Loop Capital.
Gary Mobley,Loop Capital。
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. I know I'm going to make Jeff cringe here, but I did want to ask a follow-up question with respect to your statement on long-term operating model. You laid out in November 2024 that long-term operating model, the base of which you were guiding from is 2024, obviously.
各位好,感謝你們回答我的問題。我知道我這麼說會讓傑夫感到尷尬,但我確實想就你關於長期營運模式的聲明問一個後續問題。您在 2024 年 11 月制定了長期營運模式,顯然,您指導該模式的基準是 2024 年。
And so that would indicate $15.8 billion of revenue in fiscal year '27 based on that 6% to 10% revenue growth rate minus the sale of the MEMS sensor business and whatever other adjustments since then. So for the fiscal year '26 commentary about being on target, is that with respect to 6% to 10% growth or that 2027 destination for revenue?
因此,根據 6% 至 10% 的收入成長率,減去 MEMS 感測器業務的出售以及此後的任何其他調整,2027 財年的收入將達到 158 億美元。那麼,關於 2026 財年達到目標的評論,是指 6% 到 10% 的成長,還是指 2027 年的營收目標?
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
It's a model as we've laid out at the Analyst Day. I think, Gary, we both agree with you on the endpoint where we want to get to. We both know what we have to do to get there. We're going to leave it to you and the analyst community to figure out how that march is. But we feel very good that after coming out of the first half of '25 inventory digestion, we can accelerate through the next two years. I think that's the best we can do.
這是我們曾在分析師日中闡述的模型。加里,我想我們都同意你對我們想要達到的最終目標的看法。我們都知道要達到目標需要做什麼。我們將把如何看待這個趨勢留給你們和分析師群體去思考。但我們感覺非常好,在度過了 2025 年上半年的庫存消化期後,我們可以在接下來的兩年加速發展。我認為這是我們能做到的最好結果了。
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Gary Mobley - Analyst
I appreciate what you gave there, Jeff. As my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the impact on the expense side from the sale of the MEMS sensor business. We know the revenue impact of $300 million, but what's the impact to gross margin and OpEx?
傑夫,我很感激你所做的一切。作為後續問題,我想詢問出售 MEMS 感測器業務對支出方面的影響。我們知道 3 億美元的收入影響,但對毛利率和營運支出有何影響?
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. This is Bill. I mean to think about with the sale was about 100 people. On gross margin, as we said, I think, or shared in the past, it was below our corporate margins. So I mean, not much, maybe 10 basis points, 20 basis points improvement related to that one can model. But it's -- those are the colors I can give you on it.
是的。這是比爾。我的意思是,想想看,那次銷售大概有100人參加。就毛利率而言,正如我們之前所說,或者說,我認為,或者說,正如我們過去所分享的那樣,它低於我們公司的毛利率。所以我的意思是,改進幅度不大,可能只有 10 個基點,20 個基點,可以用建模來解釋。但是——我只能告訴你這些顏色。
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
And remember, Gary, that we did go through some corporate restructuring along with this to make room for the new headcount from Aviva Links, TTTech and Kinara. So I'd still like to say we made room for the additional headcount.
加里,別忘了,我們當時也進行了一些公司重組,以便為來自 Aviva Links、TTTech 和 Kinara 的新員工騰出空間。所以我仍然想說,我們為增加的人員數量騰出了空間。
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. And also remind you that the other reason for divesting this business is we did see headwinds as we know, the current acquirer, the buyer actually manufactures the front end. And so we saw this as a great opportunity to prevent headwinds to our gross margin in the future as well.
是的。另外也要提醒大家,剝離這項業務的另一個原因是,我們確實看到了一些不利因素,因為我們知道,目前的收購方,也就是買方,實際上是前端產品的製造商。因此,我們認為這是一個絕佳的機會,可以防止未來毛利率受到不利影響。
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Gary Mobley - Analyst
Appreciate it guys. Thank you.
謝謝各位。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.
吉姆‧施耐德,高盛集團。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Relative to everything you said about this year's cadence and being within model and obviously, kind of the inventory situation out there, is there any reason to believe that if you exclude the divestitures that automotive and industrial IoT would not be operating sort of at the upper end of your long-term target model for the year?
早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。考慮到您之前提到的今年的節奏、符合模型以及當前的庫存情況,如果排除資產剝離,是否有任何理由相信汽車和工業物聯網業務的運營不會達到您今年長期目標模型的上限?
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jim, it's Jeff again. We're not going to guide 2026. Let me be very clear about that. We've given you guys as much as we're willing to do, but we're not guiding for '26.
吉姆,我是傑夫。我們不會預測2026年的情況。讓我把話說清楚。我們已經盡我們所能為你們做了,但我們不會為 2026 年提供指導。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe just on the capital allocation side of things at this point. I mean you've made a decent amount of investments in the fab relationships, et cetera. I mean, do you think that you're going to get into a place where you could, or you see your way clear to sort of increasing the buyback component of that at some point this year?
好的。很公平。然後,或許目前只需要關註一下資本配置方面的問題。我的意思是,你已經在人際關係等方面投入了相當多的資源。我的意思是,你認為你能否達到可以提高股票回購比例的程度,或者說,你是否看到了在今年某個時候提高股票回購比例的希望?
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I mean our capital allocation policy strategy has not changed one bit. We are very comfortable buying back the stock as long as we're below our net leverage ratio of 2 times. And I think in Q4, we were at 1.9 times. So there's lots of opportunity with our investments in the long-term of the business, along with buybacks. And I hope into the future, as we expand, we also increase our dividend as the company performs better. So again, we are doing multiple things. We're very flexible, and we've demonstrated that, and we're committed to returning 100% of our excess free cash flow back to our owners.
是的。我的意思是,我們的資本配置政策策略絲毫沒有改變。只要我們的淨槓桿率低於 2 倍,我們就很樂意回購股票。我認為在第四季度,我們的倍數是 1.9 倍。因此,從長遠來看,我們的投資以及股票回購為企業帶來了許多機會。我希望未來隨著公司規模的擴大,隨著公司績效的改善,我們也能提高股利。所以,我們同時在做多件事。我們非常靈活,這一點我們已經證明了,我們承諾將100%的剩餘自由現金流返還給所有者。
Operator
Operator
Tore Svanberg, Stifel.
Tore Svanberg,Stifel。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
Yes, thank you. Rafael, could you talk a little bit more about changing the way you report on geography, what some of the main reasons are behind that? I mean, I assume it's because things are changing so much as far as where your customers are taking design wins. But yes, if you could elaborate on that, that would be really great.
是的,謝謝。拉斐爾,你能否再詳細談談你改變地理報道方式的原因,以及背後的主要原因?我的意思是,我猜是因為客戶對設計作品的喜好發生了很大的變化。不過,如果您能詳細說明一下,那就太好了。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. Let me start with that one. The question of why do it now, this new way of reporting really reflects how we manage the company internally, how we direct our resources, how we direct our sales organization. I mean, think about the way we report today, a major handset maker will receive products in Asia, in the US.
是的。我就先從這個問題開始吧。為什麼現在要這樣做?這種新的報告方式實際上反映了我們公司的內部管理方式、資源調配方式以及銷售組織的管理方式。我的意思是,想想我們今天的報道方式,一家大型手機製造商將在亞洲和美國收到產品。
But in reality, most of the decisions are being in one place and will be here in the US. And so -- and that gives you an example there that kind of gives you the ability to really think about how we internally were organizing our sales force, and our marketing is to go after design wins and address customers. So this is how we manage internally, and I think it's better to reflect our business that way.
但實際上,大部分決定都將在一個地方做出,那就是美國。所以——這給你提供了一個例子,讓你能夠真正思考我們在內部是如何組織銷售團隊的,以及我們的行銷是如何爭取設計訂單並滿足客戶需求的。這就是我們內部的管理方式,我認為這樣更能反映我們的業務。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
Yes, that's very helpful. And as a follow-up for you, Bill. Bill, I think you mentioned you'll get to your $3.4 billion capacity expansion investment in 2026. Just curious between VSMC and ESMC, what's the split going to be when the year is complete?
是的,這很有幫助。比爾,我還有一個後續問題。比爾,我想你曾提過你將在 2026 年實現 34 億美元的產能擴張投資。我很好奇VSMC和ESMC到年底會如何劃分?
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I would say majority of the investments, VSMC is ahead of schedule, just purely timing, right? I think it's expected to start ramping in '27 and then be in full load in 2028. And so majority of our investments will be out in 2026. Now maybe a little bit into Q1 2027. I don't know. We'll see on the timing of that on the equity side, but I think majority will be out in '26. ESMC, since that ramp occurs later, think about some payments going out this year, but then there's still a string of payments that go out from '27 to '29, which is much smaller in the aggregate. But majority of most of the payments, hopefully, we will be done at the end of 2026.
是的。我認為大部分投資,VSMC 都提前完成了計劃,純粹是時機把握得好,對吧?我認為預計從 2027 年開始逐步提高產能,然後在 2028 年全面投產。因此,我們的大部分投資將在 2026 年退出。現在可能要到 2027 年第一季才能實現。我不知道。至於股權方面的具體時間安排,我們拭目以待,但我認為大部分股權將在 2026 年被剝離。ESMC,由於該增長勢頭出現得較晚,請考慮今年會支付一些款項,但從 2027 年到 2029 年還有一系列款項會支付,但總體而言要少得多。但大部分款項預計在 2026 年底前付清。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
Very helpful. Thank you.
很有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.
Vijay Rakesh,瑞穗銀行。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Rafael, Bill, just a quick question on the auto side. Just wondering, as you look at the software defined vehicles, and you mentioned a structural pick up there in autos. How are you looking at that Auto segment revenue growth versus LVP? Like should it grow like high single digit above LVP? Or how should we look at it?
拉斐爾,比爾,關於汽車方面,我有個小問題。我只是好奇,您在研究軟體定義車輛時,提到了汽車產業的結構性成長。您如何看待汽車業務板塊的收入成長與LVP(豪華轎車和豪華轎車)之間的關係?它應該像LVP高個位數那樣成長嗎?或者我們應該如何看待這個問題?
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Yes. Vijay, it's Jeff. I think for next year, the way our algorithm works is we assumed over a multiyear period that SAAR would grow in the low single digits. The long-term math for auto was 9% to 12% -- 8% to 12%, excuse me. And so if you were to say flattish SAAR, you can kind of back that out of that total rate and take you down. But we still see content per vehicle as the real accelerator of automotive growth.
是的。維傑,我是傑夫。我認為,就明年而言,我們的演算法運作方式是假設在多年期間,SAAR 將以較低的個位數成長。汽車產業的長期數學模型是 9% 到 12%——抱歉,應該是 8% 到 12%。因此,如果你說 SAAR 比較平穩,你可以從總成長率中減去它,從而降低成長率。但我們仍然認為每輛車的配置才是汽車產業成長的真正加速器。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it. And then --
知道了。進而--
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Vijay, and just -- maybe just kind of give you the one piece that we have. We use S&P as our kind of viable for SAAR. And they're looking at '26 at just a little almost 93 million, 92.6 million cars in '26, which is kind of flattish year-on-year from '25. But when you kind of peel that back, we still see good acceleration of EVs and good market share gains of the Chinese OEMs. So you kind of use that with the CPV content.
Vijay,或許就把我們僅有的那件東西給你吧。我們以標普500指數作為SAAR(季節性調整後年化)的可行指標。他們預計 2026 年的汽車銷量將略低於 9,300 萬輛,2026 年為 9,260 萬輛,與 2025 年相比基本持平。但當我們深入分析後,仍然可以看到電動車的良好成長勢頭以及中國汽車製造商市場份額的良好提升。所以你可以把它和 CPV 內容結合起來使用。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it. And then as you look at 2025, I think you guys mentioned orders were $7 billion, $7.1 billion-ish. And I think you put out a long-term, I think, 2027, $9.5 billion. I know there's been a lot of puts and takes with acquisitions and divestitures. But just wondering, how you are looking at that $9.5 billion by '27 number for autos?
知道了。然後展望 2025 年,我想你們提到過訂單額約為 70 億美元或 71 億美元。我認為你們制定了一個長期計劃,我認為,到 2027 年,目標金額為 95 億美元。我知道在收購和剝離方面發生了很多買賣。不過我很好奇,您如何看待2027年汽車產業95億美元的數字?
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
The only change -- yes. The only change that we would make to the model is in '24, to keep -- to be honest, you probably have to back out the $300 million in sale of sensors off that baseline in '24 and then apply the 8% to 12% growth rate off of that.
唯一的改變——是的。我們唯一要對模型做的改動是在 2024 年,為了保持——說實話,你可能得從 2024 年的基準線中減去 3 億美元的傳感器銷售額,然後在此基礎上應用 8% 到 12% 的增長率。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it, thank you.
明白了,謝謝。
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Palmer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Jack.
謝謝你,傑克。
Operator
Operator
William Stein, Truist Securities.
威廉·斯坦,Truist Securities。
William Stein - Analyst
William Stein - Analyst
Great, thanks for taking my questions. First, I'd like to ask another one on automotive. A couple of other suppliers have discussed this EV incentive expiry in China as damaging their Q1 outlook somewhat. And I wonder if you're seeing that dynamic as well, and that's -- and your guidance is certainly net of any of those effects. But can you discuss whether that's influencing your outlook either in Q1 or for the rest of the year? And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.
太好了,謝謝你回答我的問題。首先,我想問一個關於汽車方面的問題。其他幾家供應商也討論了中國電動車補貼到期對他們第一季業績預期造成一定影響的問題。我想知道你是否也注意到了這種動態,而且——你的指導意見肯定不受這些影響。但您能否談談這是否會影響您對第一季或今年剩餘時間的展望?然後我還有一個後續問題。謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
No. We don't see -- we don't have the same perspective. As a matter of fact, one of the changes, well, that we see in China, a couple of changes. You mentioned incentives, which tells the incentive towards more of the high end of the vehicles. The other change that China has made is that they increased certain regulations to improve the quality and resilience of the vehicles.
不。我們看不到──我們沒有相同的視角。事實上,我們在中國看到的一些變化,或者說幾處變化。你提到了激勵措施,這表明激勵措施旨在鼓勵消費者購買更高端的車輛。中國做出的另一項改變是加強了某些法規,以提高車輛的品質和耐用性。
And I think both attempts is to reduce the evolution in the market. I think we see both of those initiatives to be good for us. The resilient or quality requirements they're putting in place right now, I think it's really going to be a tailwind for us and design wins for 2026. So we see some of the changes actually good for us for NXP and our auto business.
我認為這兩種嘗試都是為了減緩市場的發展。我認為這兩項舉措對我們都有好處。我認為,他們目前正在實施的彈性或品質要求,真的會成為我們的順風,並幫助我們在 2026 年贏得設計專案。所以我們看到,其中一些變化實際上對恩智浦和我們的汽車業務是有利的。
William Stein - Analyst
William Stein - Analyst
Great, thank you. And as a follow-up, there's a rapid growth area in semis, we all know, not just endpoint physical AI, but data center AI. And I think historically, you haven't talked about any exposure there, but my best guess is that you have something in that market. Can you discuss any ongoing development or any exposure to that market? Thank you.
太好了,謝謝。此外,我們都知道,半導體領域是一個快速成長的領域,不僅是終端物理人工智慧,還有資料中心人工智慧。而且我認為,從歷史來看,你從未談到在該領域的任何投資,但我最好的猜測是,你在該市場擁有一些資產。您能否談談目前在該市場的任何發展或相關業務?謝謝。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. Well. So today, our data center revenue sits within the Industrial segment. And our exposure is indeed, you mentioned through processors to support the data center infrastructure. I think there will be things like power supplies, NIC cars, cooling systems. But we also have our high-performance products there for control functions and things that they need probably security like PQC. We don't break this revenue out separately, but it is growing nicely, and it will contribute to industrial momentum in 2026.
是的。出色地。所以目前,我們的資料中心收入屬於工業領域。正如您所提到的,我們確實透過處理器來支援資料中心基礎設施。我認為會有電源、網路卡、冷卻系統之類的東西。但我們也有高性能產品用於控制功能以及他們可能需要的安全功能,例如 PQC。我們沒有單獨列出這部分收入,但它的成長勢頭良好,並將為 2026 年的工業發展勢頭做出貢獻。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Rafael for closing remarks.
謝謝。現在我想把電話交還給拉斐爾,請他作總結發言。
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Rafael Sotomayor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and your thoughtful questions. This quarter reaffirms the continuity of our strategy and the durability of our model, focused on profitable growth, disciplined execution and predictable returns. With clear visibility into our company-specific growth drivers, we're confident in our ability to compound value through 2026 and beyond. Thank you.
感謝各位今天蒞臨本節目,也感謝大家提出的寶貴問題。本季再次印證了我們策略的延續性和模式的持久性,即專注於獲利成長、嚴謹執行和可預測回報。我們對公司特有的成長驅動因素有了清晰的了解,因此我們有信心在 2026 年及以後持續創造價值。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接了。