恩智浦 (NXPI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

恩智浦半導體第一季營收優於預期,較去年同期下降9%。他們對第二季的業績給出了預期,預計收入為 29 億美元。該公司宣布以 3.07 億美元收購 Kinara,執行長將於 2025 年底退休。

儘管市場狀況不確定,恩智浦仍專注於管理獲利能力和成長。他們討論了收購、關稅、中國策略以及潛在的供應鏈中斷。發言人對該公司的成長潛力表示樂觀,並計劃在 2030 年實現每股收益翻一番。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NXP first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加恩智浦 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,投資者關係高級副總裁傑夫·帕爾默 (Jeff Palmer)。請繼續。

  • Jeff Palmer - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Jeff Palmer - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Tanya. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP Semiconductor's first-quarter earnings call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

    謝謝你,Tanya。大家早安。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是恩智浦總裁兼執行長 Kurt Sievers;以及我們的財務長 Bill Betz。今天的電話會議已被錄音,可從我們的公司網站重播。

  • Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products, and our expectations for the financial results for the second quarter of 2025.

    今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述,其中涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致恩智浦的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於有關宏觀經濟對我們經營的特定終端市場的影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2025 年第二季度財務業績的預期的陳述。

  • NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.

    NXP 不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整揭露,請參閱我們的新聞稿。

  • Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our first-quarter 2025 earnings press release which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section.

    此外,我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標主要由管理階層認為與 NXP 核心營運績效無直接關係的離散事件所驅動。根據 G 條例,恩智浦已在 2025 年第一季收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表,該新聞稿將以 8-K 表格形式提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC),並可在恩智浦網站的「投資者關係」部分查閱。

  • Now, I'd like to pass the call to Kurt.

    現在,我想把電話轉給庫爾特。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. I will review our quarter-one performance and then discuss our guidance for quarter two.

    謝謝你,傑夫,大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我將回顧我們第一季的表現,然後討論我們對第二季的指導。

  • Beginning with quarter one, our revenue was $10 million better than the midpoint of our guidance. The revenue trends in the mobile and communication infrastructure markets were slightly above expectations, while performance in the automotive and industrial and IoT markets were slightly below our expectations. Taken together, NXP delivered Q1 revenue of $2.84 billion, a decrease of 9% year on year.

    從第一季開始,我們的營收就比預期中位數高出 1,000 萬美元。行動和通訊基礎設施市場的收入趨勢略高於預期,而汽車和工業及物聯網市場的表現略低於我們的預期。綜合來看,恩智浦第一季營收為28.4億美元,年減9%。

  • Non-GAAP operating margin in quarter one was 31.9%, 260 basis points below the year-ago period and about 40 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Year-on-year performance was a result of the lower revenue related gross profit fall-through, partially offset by lower operating expenses.

    第一季非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 31.9%,比去年同期低 260 個基點,比我們預期的中點高出約 40 個基點。年比業績表現不佳是由於收入減少導致毛利下降,但部分被營運費用的降低所抵消。

  • From a channel perspective, distribution inventory was in line with our guidance at nine weeks, below our long-term target of 11 weeks. From a direct sales perspective, we continue to support Western Tier 1 auto customers with their ongoing digesting of on-hand inventory against the backdrop of a cloudy automotive demand environment.

    從通路角度來看,分銷庫存符合我們的預期,為 9 週,低於我們的長期目標 11 週。從直銷角度來看,在汽車需求環境不景氣的背景下,我們持續支持西方一級汽車客戶消化現有庫存。

  • Now let me turn to our expectations for the second quarter. We are operating in a very uncertain environment influenced by tariffs with volatile direct and indirect effects.

    現在讓我來談談我們對第二季的預期。我們在一個非常不確定的環境中運營,受到關稅的影響,其直接和間接影響不穩定。

  • As of today, the direct impact of the current tariffs is immaterial to our financials. However, the indirect impact of current tariffs related to future demand and supply chain remains unknown. As of now, we are not seeing any abnormal customer order pull-ins or pushouts, which could be associated with the tariffs.

    截至今天,當前關稅的直接影響對我們的財務狀況並不重要。然而,當前關稅對未來需求和供應鏈的間接影響仍不得而知。截至目前,我們尚未發現任何可能與關稅有關的異常客戶訂單拉入或推出情況。

  • And other than the potential indirect impacts of tariffs, we are seeing some positive trends. These trends include improving distribution customer backlog levels as well as stabilized order signals from our direct customers.

    除了關稅的潛在間接影響外,我們還看到一些正面的趨勢。這些趨勢包括改善分銷客戶積壓水準以及穩定來自直接客戶的訂單訊號。

  • Additionally, we are experiencing an increase in short-cycle orders as well as some spot product shortages leading to customer escalations. Taken together, these trends have historically been indicative of the early innings of improving cycle dynamics. Therefore, our guidance reflects these improving cycle trends and the immaterial direct tariff impact, but we have not incorporated any judgment of indirect impact from tariffs.

    此外,我們的短週期訂單增加,部分現貨產品短缺,導致客戶升級。綜合起來,這些趨勢在歷史上都預示著週期動態改善的早期階段。因此,我們的指導反映了這些改善的周期趨勢和非實質的直接關稅影響,但我們沒有納入對關稅間接影響的任何判斷。

  • Given the uncertain macro environment, we are only providing guidance for the second quarter. We are guiding Q2 revenue to $2.9 billion, down 7% versus the second quarter of 2024 and up 2% sequentially. At the midpoint, we expect the following trends in our business during quarter two.

    鑑於宏觀環境的不確定性,我們僅提供第二季的指導。我們預計第二季營收為 29 億美元,較 2024 年第二季下降 7%,季增 2%。從中期來看,我們預期第二季的業務將呈現以下趨勢。

  • Automotive is expected to be flat versus quarter two 2024 and up in the low single-digit percent range versus quarter one '25. Industrial and IoT is expected to be down in the mid-teens percent range year on year and up in the mid-single-digit percent range versus quarter one 2025.

    預計汽車銷售額將與 2024 年第二季持平,與 2025 年第一季相比將出現低個位數百分比的成長。預計工業和物聯網的年增長率將達到百分之十幾左右,而到 2025 年第一季度,工業和物聯網的年增長率將達到百分之十幾左右。

  • Mobile is expected to be down in the mid-single-digit percent range on both a year on year and a sequential basis. And finally, communication infrastructure and other is expected to be down in the high 20% range versus quarter two '24, flat was quarter one '25.

    預計行動業務的年比和季減幅度都將在個位數中段百分比範圍內。最後,預計通訊基礎設施和其他業務將比 2024 年第二季下降 20% 左右,與 2025 年第一季持平。

  • Our outlook assumes that we will continue to under ship end demand in automotive, we expect channel inventory to be flattish at nine weeks against our long-term target of 11 weeks. Before turning to your questions, I would like to review a strategic acquisition which we announced in the first quarter.

    我們的展望假設我們將繼續低於汽車終端出貨需求,我們預計通路庫存將在 9 週內持平,而我們的長期目標是 11 週。在回答您的問題之前,我想回顧一下我們在第一季宣布的一項策略收購。

  • On February 10, we announced the intention to acquire Kinara for $307 million, an industry leader in high-performance, energy-efficient, and programmable neural processors. This acquisition provides a scalable platform for AI-powered X-ray systems combining NXP's broad portfolio processing, connectivity, security, and advanced analog solutions with Kinara's AI NPU hardware and software.

    2 月 10 日,我們宣布有意以 3.07 億美元收購 Kinara,後者是高效能、節能和可程式神經處理器領域的產業領導者。此次收購為人工智慧 X 光系統提供了一個可擴展的平台,將恩智浦廣泛的處理、連接、安全性和先進的模擬解決方案與 Kinara 的人工智慧 NPU 硬體和軟體相結合。

  • We believe there is an inflection point in the industrial and IoT markets, which is creating demand for intelligent edge AI compute solutions. Customers need high performance, secure low-power processing, which takes place locally at the edge. This eliminates the requirement to connect to the cloud for the execution of AI models in order to meet the critical latency, security, and real-time edge requirements.

    我們相信工業和物聯網市場正在出現一個轉折點,這正在創造對智慧邊緣人工智慧運算解決方案的需求。客戶需要高效能、安全的低功耗處理,這些處理在邊緣本地進行。這消除了為了滿足關鍵延遲、安全性和即時邊緣要求而執行 AI 模型時需要連接到雲端的要求。

  • Kinara already has meaningful customer engagements within the factory automation, building and energy management, healthcare, and smart home end markets. We expect the regulatory approval should be complete by the end of second quarter.

    Kinara 已在工廠自動化、樓宇和能源管理、醫療保健和智慧家庭終端市場與客戶建立了有意義的合作關係。我們預計監管部門的批准將在第二季末完成。

  • The transaction will not have a material impact on the financial model shared at our Investor Day in November. We expect Kinara to be accretive to our current financial model by 2028, and it will accelerate our overall position in the industrial and IoT markets.

    該交易不會對我們 11 月投資者日分享的財務模型產生重大影響。我們預計到 2028 年 Kinara 將對我們目前的財務模式產生增值作用,並加速我們在工業和物聯網市場中的整體地位。

  • In summary, NXP's first-quarter results and guidance for the second quarter underpin a cautious optimism that NXP continues to effectively navigate through a challenging set of market conditions. We are operating in a very uncertain environment influenced by tariffs with volatile direct and indirect effects. Considering these external factors, we are redoubling our efforts to manage what is in our direct control, enabling NXP to drive solid profitability and earnings.

    總而言之,恩智浦第一季的業績和第二季的指引鞏固了人們謹慎樂觀的態度,即恩智浦將繼續有效地應對一系列充滿挑戰的市場環境。我們在一個非常不確定的環境中運營,受到關稅的影響,其直接和間接影響不穩定。考慮到這些外部因素,我們正在加倍努力管理我們直接控制的因素,使恩智浦能夠實現穩健的盈利能力和收益。

  • Now finally, on a more personal note, after deep reflection, I have decided to retire from NXP at the end of 2025. My past 30 proud years with NXP, including seven years as President and five years as CEO, has been hugely fulfilling. I am incredibly thankful for the invaluable privilege to work with so many amazing people and having the opportunity to co-create NXP's future and drive technological leadership for a better world.

    現在,最後,從個人角度來說,經過深思熟慮後,我決定在 2025 年底從恩智浦退休。過去 30 年我在恩智浦工作,其中 7 年擔任總裁,5 年擔任首席執行官,這段經歷讓我感到非常滿足。我非常感謝能有如此寶貴的特權與如此多的優秀人才共事,並有機會共同創造恩智浦的未來,推動技術領導地位,創造更美好的世界。

  • For three decades, I definitely prioritized and dedicated my energy to NXP and all of our stakeholders. Now the time has come to start planning for a shift and focus on my personal journey. I am looking forward to entering the next chapter of my life in good health, taking more time for family, friends, and personal passions.

    三十年來,我始終將我的精力放在恩智浦和我們所有的利害關係人身上。現在是時候開始計劃轉變並專注於我的個人旅程了。我期待著健康地開啟人生的新篇章,花更多的時間陪伴家人、朋友和追求個人嗜好。

  • And I would like to congratulate Rafael on his promotion to President of NXP. I look much forward to the next six months of transition period before Rafael assumes the Chief Executive Officer role for NXP in October (technical difficulty) worked very closely together with all of you in the upcoming periods. Building on more than 10 years of experience in NXP, Rafael will be an excellent leader to execute on NXP's strategy to bring intelligent systems to the action in the automotive and industrial and IoT end markets.

    我還要祝賀拉斐爾晉升為恩智浦總裁。我非常期待接下來六個月的過渡期,之後 Rafael 將於 10 月擔任 NXP 執行長(技術難度),並在接下來的時期與大家密切合作。憑藉在恩智浦超過 10 年的經驗,Rafael 將成為一名出色的領導者,執行恩智浦的策略,將智慧系統應用於汽車、工業和物聯網終端市場。

  • And with that, I would like to pass the call over to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance.

    說完這些,我想把電話交給你,比爾,來檢視一下我們的財務表現。

  • William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q1 and provided our revenue outlook for Q2, I will move to the financial highlights. Overall, our Q1 financial performance was good. Revenue was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range, while gross profit was in line and operating expenses were below the midpoint of our guidance.

    謝謝你,庫爾特,今天電話會議中的各位早安。由於 Kurt 已經介紹了第一季的收入驅動因素並提供了第二季度的收入展望,因此我將轉到財務亮點。總體而言,我們的第一季財務業績良好。收入略高於我們指引範圍的中點,毛利符合預期,而營運費用低於我們指引範圍的中點。

  • Taken together, we delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.64 or $0.05 better than the midpoint (technical difficulty) We continue to manage sales into the distribution channel, consistent with our guidance of nine weeks.

    總體而言,我們實現的非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.64 美元,比中間值高出 0.05 美元(技術難度)我們繼續管理分銷管道的銷售,與我們九週的指導一致。

  • Now moving to the details of Q1. Total revenue was $2.84 billion, down 9% year on year, slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range. We generated $1.59 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 56.1%, down 210 basis points year on year and 20 basis points below the midpoint of our guidance range due to product and channel mix.

    現在轉到 Q1 的細節。總收入為 28.4 億美元,年減 9%,略高於我們預期範圍的中點。我們實現了 15.9 億美元的非公認會計準則毛利潤,報告的非公認會計準則毛利率為 56.1%,同比下降 210 個基點,由於產品和渠道組合,比我們的指導範圍中點低 20 個基點。

  • Total non-GAAP operating expenses, $686 million or 24.2% of revenue, down $50 million year on year and $14 million below the midpoint of our guidance range. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $904 million, and non-GAAP operating margin was 31.9%, down 260 basis points year on year and 40 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance range.

    非公認會計準則總營運費用為 6.86 億美元,佔營收的 24.2%,年減 5,000 萬美元,比我們的指導範圍中點低 1,400 萬美元。從總營業利潤來看,非公認會計準則營業利潤為 9.04 億美元,非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 31.9%,年減 260 個基點,高於我們指導範圍的中點 40 個基點。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense was $80 million, while taxes for ongoing operations were $143 million or a 17.4% non-GAAP effective tax rate. Non-controlling interest was $7 million, and results from equity account investees associated with our joint venture manufacturing partnerships was $1 million.

    非公認會計準則利息支出為 8,000 萬美元,而持續營業稅為 1.43 億美元,即非公認會計準則有效稅率為 17.4%。非控制權益為 700 萬美元,與我們的合資製造夥伴關係相關的股權帳戶投資收益為 100 萬美元。

  • Taken together, the below the line items were $3 million unfavorable to our guidance. Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings was $127 million.

    綜合起來,以下項目對我們的指導不利,金額達 300 萬美元。股票薪酬未計入我們的非公認會計準則收益,為 1.27 億美元。

  • Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q1 was $11.73 billion, up $871 million sequentially due to a combination of a second tranche of the European investment bank holding and the initial results of our new commercial paper program.

    現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。我們第一季末的總債務為 117.3 億美元,比上一季增加 8.71 億美元,這得益於歐洲投資銀行控股的第二部分以及我們新的商業票據計劃的初步結果。

  • Our ending cash balance was $3.99 billion, up $696 million sequentially due to the cumulative effect of additional liquidity, capital returns, CapEx investments, and cash generation during the quarter. The resulting net debt was $7.74 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $4.89 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q1 was 1.6 times, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 19.2 times.

    我們的期末現金餘額為 39.9 億美元,比上一季增加 6.96 億美元,這得益於本季額外流動性、資本回報、資本支出投資和現金產生的累積效應。由此產生的淨債務為 77.4 億美元,本季末我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 48.9 億美元。我們第一季末的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.6 倍,而我們 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 19.2 倍。

  • During Q1, we repurchased $303 million of our shares and paid $258 million in cash dividends. After the end of the quarter and through April '25, we bought an additional $90 million of our shares under an established 10b5-1 program.

    第一季度,我們回購了價值 3.03 億美元的股票,並支付了 2.58 億美元的現金股利。本季結束後至 2025 年 4 月,我們根據既定的 10b5-1 計畫額外購買了價值 9,000 萬美元的股票。

  • Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 169 days, an increase of 18 days sequentially and flattish on a dollar basis. Days receivable were 34 days, up 4 days sequentially; and days payable were 62 days, down 3 days sequentially. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 141 days.

    轉向營運資本指標。庫存天數為 169 天,比上一季增加 18 天,以美元計算持平。應收帳款天數為34天,較上一季增加4天;應付帳款天數為62天,較上一季減少3天。總的來說,我們的現金轉換週期為 141 天。

  • Cash flow from operations was $565 million, and net CapEx was $138 million or 5% of revenue, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $427 million or 15% of revenue. During Q1, we paid a $125 million capacity access fee related to BSMC which is included in our cash flow from operations.

    營運現金流為 5.65 億美元,淨資本支出為 1.38 億美元,佔收入的 5%,導致非 GAAP 自由現金流為 4.27 億美元,佔收入的 15%。在第一季度,我們支付了與 BSMC 相關的 1.25 億美元容量使用費,該費用包含在我們的營運現金流中。

  • Additionally, we paid $16 million in the ESMC, our equity foundry joint venture under construction in Germany, and a $20 million into VSMC our equity accounted foundry joint venture under construction in Singapore, both of which are included in our cash flow from investing.

    此外,我們也向在德國正在建造的股權代工合資企業 ESMC 投資了 1,600 萬美元,並向在新加坡正在建造的股權代工合資企業 VSMC 投資了 2,000 萬美元,這兩項投資都計入了我們的投資現金流。

  • Now turning to our expectations for the second quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q2 revenue to be $2.9 billion plus or minus about $100 million. At the midpoint, this is down about 7% year on year and up about 2% sequentially.

    現在來談談我們對第二季的預期。正如庫爾特所提到的,我們預計第二季的營收為 29 億美元,上下浮動約 1 億美元。中間值年減約 7%,季增約 2%。

  • We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be 56.3% plus or minus 50 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be about $710 million, plus or minus about $10 million. The sequential increase is driven by the normal annual merit increases and the previously disclosed annual license payment, modestly offset by our ongoing restructuring to make room for the three pending acquisitions.

    我們預期非 GAAP 毛利率為 56.3%(上下浮動 50 個基點)。預計營運費用約 7.1 億美元,上下浮動約 1,000 萬美元。環比成長是由正常的年度績效加薪和先前披露的年度許可費推動的,但我們正在進行的重組為三項待完成的收購騰出空間,這在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。

  • Taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be 31.8% at the midpoint. Please note our second-quarter guidance does not incorporate the three pending acquisitions. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $88 million. We expect the non-GAAP tax rate to be 17.4% of profit before tax.

    綜合來看,我們認為非 GAAP 營業利潤率中間值為 31.8%。請注意,我們的第二季指引並未包含三項待定收購。我們估計非公認會計準則財務支出約為 8,800 萬美元。我們預期非公認會計準則稅率為稅前利潤的17.4%。

  • Non-internal interest will be about $9 million, and results from equity account invest fees about $2 million. For Q2, we suggest for modelling purposes you use an average share count of 255 million shares.

    非內部利息約 900 萬美元,股權帳戶投資費用約 200 萬美元。對於第二季度,我們建議您出於建模目的使用 2.55 億股的平均股數。

  • We expect stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP guidance, to be $115 million, taken together, at the midpoint, this implies a non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.66. Furthermore, we continue to operate our internal fabs in the low 70% range, and we expect our days of inventory to be flattish into Q2.

    我們預期股票薪酬(未包含在非公認會計準則指引中)為 1.15 億美元,以中間值計算,這意味著非公認會計準則每股收益為 2.66 美元。此外,我們繼續以 70% 的低位運行我們的內部晶圓廠,我們預計我們的庫存天數在第二季將保持穩定。

  • Turning to uses of cash. We expect capital expenditures to be around 4% (technical difficulty) we will pay a $35 million capacity access fee to VSMC. Additionally, we will make a $16 million equity investment into ESMC and a $50 million equity investment into VSMC, our two equity-accounted foundry joint ventures under construction.

    談談現金的用途。我們預計資本支出約為 4%(技術難度),我們將向 VSMC 支付 3,500 萬美元的產能使用費。此外,我們將向正在建造的兩家權益法核算的代工合資企業 ESMC 進行 1,600 萬美元的股權投資,向 VSMC 進行 5,000 萬美元的股權投資。

  • Pending the regulatory approval of the three acquisitions, it will result in a cash payment of $1.1 billion, and we will redeem the $500 million tranche of debt due in May from our current cash balance of $4 billion. After closing these acquisitions, our ongoing restructuring actions are intended to enable NXP to get into its stated long-term operating expense model of 23% in the second half of 2025.

    等待監管部門批准這三項收購後,我們將支付 11 億美元現金,並且我們將從目前的 40 億美元現金餘額中贖回 5 月到期的 5 億美元債務。完成這些收購後,我們正在進行的重組行動旨在使恩智浦在 2025 年下半年進入其所述的 23% 的長期營運費用模型。

  • In closing, I would like to highlight a few focus areas for NXP. First, as Kurt mentioned in his prepared remarks our outlook does not consider unknown indirect end market demand impacts because of global tariffs, while the direct impact of the current tariffs are immaterial to our financial guidance.

    最後,我想強調恩智浦的幾個重點領域。首先,正如庫爾特在其準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們的展望並未考慮由於全球關稅而導致的未知的間接終端市場需求影響,而當前關稅的直接影響對我們的財務指導無關緊要。

  • Second, with the upcoming CEO transition, there is no change to our long-term financial model and capital allocation strategy. And lastly, we are operating in a very uncertain environment influenced by global tariffs Considering these external factors on the end markets we operate, we are redoubling our efforts to manage what is in our direct control, enabling NXP to drive solid profitability and earnings while executing our growth strategy.

    其次,隨著執行長即將過渡,我們的長期財務模式和資本配置策略不會改變。最後,我們的營運環境非常不確定,受到全球關稅的影響。考慮到我們營運的終端市場中的這些外部因素,我們正在加倍努力管理我們直接控制的領域,使恩智浦能夠在執行成長策略的同時實現穩健的獲利能力和收益。

  • With that, I would like to now turn it back to the operator for your questions.

    說完這些,我現在想把問題交還給接線員來回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Christopher Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    (操作員指示)克里斯多福·繆斯、領唱菲茨傑拉德。

  • Christopher Muse - Analyst

    Christopher Muse - Analyst

  • And Kurt, you will clearly be very missed. Thank you for everything that you've done over the last five years and obviously, before that as President. I guess maybe first question, you highlighted in your prepared remarks the Kinara acquisition. But you've also made acquisitions with Aviva and TTTech. And I guess my question is this.

    庫爾特,我們肯定會非常想念你的。感謝您在過去五年以及之前擔任總統期間所做的一切。我想也許第一個問題是,您在準備好的發言中強調了 Kinara 收購案。但您也對 Aviva 和 TTTech 進行了收購。我想我的問題是這樣的。

  • As you think about competition from China in the MCU world, how much of these acquisitions are defensive in terms of a world where MCU discrete purchases probably decrease and focus on software is more important or conversely more offensive in terms of true differentiation, both in the auto and in the industrial side, this where you look to really separate yourselves?

    當您考慮來自中國在 MCU 領域的競爭時,這些收購有多少是出於防禦目的(因為 MCU 離散購買量可能會減少,而軟體更為重要),還是相反,出於真正的差異化(無論是在汽車領域還是在工業領域),出於進攻目的(這是您真正希望脫穎而出的地方)?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Many thanks, and good morning C.J. Yes, indeed, we have had three acquisitions now, Kinara, Aviva and TTTech Auto. Kinara is the AI edge compute, which I just discussed briefly on the call. Aviva is about Asengrowth connectivity in the car between displays and cameras and for very high data rates in one direction versus not in the other. So clearly beating what Ethernet can do.

    非常感謝,早安,C.J。是的,確實,我們現在已經收購了三家公司,分別是 Kinara、Aviva 和 TTTech Auto。Kinara 是 AI 邊緣運算,我剛才在電話會議上簡要討論過它。Aviva 致力於實現汽車顯示器和攝影機之間的 Asengrowth 連接,實現一個方向的極高資料速率,而另一個方向則不然。顯然超越了乙太網路的功能。

  • And TTTech Auto is indeed a very strong software complement to our CoreRide platform. And to answer your question in brief, this is clearly an offensive addition complements to our product strategy as we have it today to make us more differentiated with our compute portfolio.

    TTTech Auto 確實是我們 CoreRide 平台非常強大的軟體補充。簡單回答你的問題,這顯然是對我們今天產品策略的有力補充,使我們的計算產品組合更具差異化。

  • It's -- I was a little bit hesitating, C.J., because it's not just the compute portfolio because especially the Aviva and TTTech Auto is the whole offering with our CoreRide platform for the software defined region.

    是的——我有點猶豫,C.J.,因為這不僅僅是計算產品組合,尤其是 Aviva 和 TTTech Auto,這是我們為軟體定義區域提供的 CoreRide 平台的整體產品。

  • Clearly, this will come to good play in China. But I have to emphasize CJ not only in China. I mean, this is a global offering, but it will certainly also further help our China-for-China strategy.

    顯然,這將在中國發揮良好作用。但我必須強調CJ不只在中國。我的意思是,這是一項全球性服務,但它肯定也會進一步幫助我們的「中國為中國」戰略。

  • Christopher Muse - Analyst

    Christopher Muse - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, could you give us a level set where we are in the auto correction. You talked about under shipping end demand. I guess, when do you now expect excess inventory to be digested? And how are you thinking from a geographic perspective.

    非常有幫助。然後,作為快速的跟進,您能否給我們一個在自動校正中設定的等級。您談到了航運端需求。我猜,您現在預計什麼時候可以消化過剩庫存?從地理角度來看您是怎麼想的?

  • I think three months ago, you talked about China strong. Americas slowly recovering in Europe weak. Is that consistent with where we are again today.

    我想三個月前您就談到中國的強大。美洲緩慢復甦,歐洲疲軟。這與我們今天的處境一致嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. Actually, quarter two guidance is a bit of a turning point above and beyond the comments I made in my prepared remarks about better backlog with distribution customers about stabilization of the order patterns from direct customers, some early innings of escalations because of supply shortages with very short-term orders.

    是的。實際上,第二季度的指引是一個轉折點,超出了我在準備好的評論中所提到的與分銷客戶更好的積壓訂單、直接客戶的訂單模式的穩定,以及由於供應短缺和短期訂單導致的一些早期升級。

  • But the turning point of order in the second quarter is actually, in my view, that second quarter, we are flat year on year. And that's the first time after five quarters. So we look now back to five quarters of year on year declines in automotive.

    但我認為,第二季的轉捩點實際上是與去年同期持平。這是五個季度以來的第一次。現在我們回顧一下汽車產業五個季度的同比下滑情況。

  • And the second quarter of calendar 2025 is the first time that we are flat. It is indeed CJ a combination of stabilizing order pattern from the direct customers with somewhat slower digestion of above inventory in the Western Tier 1s. I'd say somewhat slower because some of them are done, and we still have a few left which are still absorbing over inventory.

    2025 年第二季是我們首次出現持平的情況。這確實是 CJ 直接客戶的穩定訂單模式與西方一線城市上述庫存消化速度較慢的結合。我想說速度會慢一些,因為有些已經完成了,我們還有一些剩餘的庫存仍在吸收中。

  • So this is still under shipping to their end demand. At the same time, we see a pretty nice pickup in order pace especially from Asia for the second quarter, automotive and Asia here is a combination of China and Japan.

    因此這仍然在運送到他們的最終需求。同時,我們看到訂單速度明顯回升,尤其是第二季來自亞洲的訂單,汽車業和亞洲(包括中國和日本)的訂單。

  • Admittedly, that also has seasonal components. China automotive is always seasonally weak in Q1 and then picks up the pace in Q2, and that's exactly what we see. And in Japan, there is another element which makes Q2 always stronger than Q1, which has to do with the price adjustment.

    不可否認,這也有季節性因素。中國汽車市場在第一季總是處於季節性疲軟狀態,而在第二季則回升,這正是我們所看到的。而在日本,還有一個因素使得第二季度總是強於第一季度,這個因素和價格調整有關。

  • I talked about global pricing in the last earnings call, and I hope I made a clear comment that most of the Western customers we settle pricing for the full year by January 1, or Japan, that is by April 1. And natural customer behavior is that they hesitate to buy before they have the new prices.

    我在上次財報電話會議上談到了全球定價問題,我希望我已經明確表示,我們會在 1 月 1 日之前為大多數西方客戶確定全年定價,或者在 4 月 1 日之前為日本客戶確定全年定價。而自然的顧客行為是,在得知新價格之前,他們會猶豫是否要購買。

  • So Japan was waiting, and that's why we see now an uptick in Japan into the second quarter. Since it will be one of the next questions for sure, I say it upfront. With having all the price negotiations with the large customers now settled for the year, I can reconfirm and with confidence what I said last earnings which is we will have for this year a low single-digit price erosion for the whole company for the year.

    所以日本一直在等待,這就是為什麼我們現在看到日本第二季經濟出現回升。因為這肯定會是下一個問題之一,所以我提前說出來。由於今年與大客戶的所有價格談判均已塵埃落定,我可以再次確認並充滿信心地重申我上次盈利時所說的內容,即今年整個公司的價格下降幅度將保持在個位數以下。

  • So no change to what we said last year. It's just that now the confidence is fully in place since we also closed and operate and execute on Japan.

    因此我們去年所說的沒有改變。只是現在我們已經完全有信心了,因為我們也在日本關閉、運作和執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

  • Ross Seymore - Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Analyst

  • A couple of questions and first want to echo what CJ said. Thank you so much for all your help over the years, and congrats and best of luck in retirement. So I guess my first question is, I know you talked about the direct and indirect, not really having an impact on the tariff front.

    我有幾個問題,首先想重複 CJ 所說的話。非常感謝您多年來的幫助,並祝賀您退休後一切順利。所以我想我的第一個問題是,我知道您談到了直接和間接的影響,這對關稅方面並沒有真正的影響。

  • But can you just talk a little bit about how NXP is viewed by the customers and by the various governments. I know where you're technically headquartered, but -- are you a US company to China? Are your US China for China play? Or does the US consider you a European company? Just trying to talk through the manufacturing footprint you have and the flexibility that might provide.

    但您能否稍微談談客戶和各國政府如何看待恩智浦半導體?我知道你們的總部在哪裡,但是──你們是一家在中國的美國公司嗎?你的美國中國政策是針對中國的嗎?還是美國認為你們是歐洲公司?只是想談談你們的製造足跡以及可能提供的靈活性。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Ross, and good morning. Let me first reiterate indeed what I said about direct and indirect impact. The direct impact of the current tariffs we consider immaterial to our financial guidance. So there is a tiny little bit, but it is immaterial, therefore, consider zero.

    是的。謝謝,羅斯,早安。首先,讓我重申我所說的直接和間接影響。我們認為當前關稅的直接影響對我們的財務指導並不重要。因此,雖然有一點點,但這並不重要,因此,考慮為零。

  • What I did say about the indirect impact is that it is completely confusing because things are changing by the day. I think today is another reiteration planned or the 25% auto. So that keeps changing, and we don't see a consistent pattern.

    我確實說過間接影響是完全令人困惑的,因為事情每天都在變化。我認為今天是另一次重申計劃或 25% 自動。所以情況一直在變化,我們沒有看到一致的模式。

  • But I would also clearly say we have been very busy talking to all of our customers across the world asking them what they plan to do, what they have possibly done and there is neither pull in or push out effects at this point in time. And we also don't -- we didn't really foresee anything for the second quarter from an indirect perspective.

    但我還要明確地說,我們一直在忙於與世界各地的所有客戶交談,詢問他們計劃做什麼、可能做了什麼,目前還沒有出現拉進或推出效應。而且我們也沒有——從間接角度來看,我們實際上沒有預見到第二季的任何事情。

  • So that's why the comment in my prepared remarks. The second part of your question is indeed yielding something we essentially see as an opportunity. Especially in China, as we are seeing and of course, we position ourselves that way as a European company.

    這就是我在準備好的發言中所做的評論。你的問題的第二部分確實產生了一些我們基本上視為機會的東西。尤其是在中國,正如我們所看到的,當然,我們將自己定位為歐洲公司。

  • Very clearly as a European company with a lot of our manufacturing operations, given our hybrid manufacturing strategy outside of the US. So that makes us I'd say, a pretty much appreciated partner for the industry and our customers in China.

    很明顯,作為一家擁有大量製造業務的歐洲公司,我們在美國以外實施了混合製造策略。因此,我想說,我們已經成為中國業界和客戶非常讚賞的合作夥伴。

  • Now tariffs have been exempted and coming and going over the last couple of weeks. But clearly, we've seen an opportunity with our China for China strategy from these tariffs. Because our manufacturing structure in our hybrid manufacturing network, which I think I've discussed over the past couple of quarters already, which is very much emphasizing and strongly building a local manufacturing network is a positive in this.

    現在,關稅已被免除,並且在過去幾週內不斷取消。但顯然,我們從這些關稅中看到了我們的「中國對華」策略的機會。因為我們的混合製造網路中的製造結構,我認為我已經在過去幾個季度討論過這個問題,它非常強調並大力建立本地製造網絡,這在其中是積極的。

  • So it's not just how we are seeing, Ross, but it's also actually such that I think more than a third of our China for China business today is already protected in truck. So we already have made our progress in leveraging this advantage.

    因此,羅斯,這不僅僅是我們看到的情況,而且事實上我認為,今天我們在中國的業務中,超過三分之一已經受到卡車的保護。因此,我們在利用這一優勢方面已經取得了進展。

  • Now you also asked, are we seen in the US? Well, in the US, we are seen as a US company, which we start complying with anything that has been asked from us. But I think that the part which gives us potentially at that we try to leverage is that the Chinese are seeing us as European. And we have already spent, I'd say, two years of changing our supply network to be the better partner on the China-for-China manufacturing perspective.

    現在你還問,我們在美國被看見了嗎?嗯,在美國,我們被視為一家美國公司,我們會遵守任何要求我們做的事情。但我認為,我們試圖利用的一個潛力是,中國人把我們視為歐洲人。我想說,我們已經花了兩年的時間來改變我們的供應網絡,以便成為中國製造業更好的合作夥伴。

  • Ross Seymore - Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Analyst

  • I guess for my follow-up, I just want to put it over to the industrial side of things. You gave a lot of color about the order patterns, et cetera, in automotive channel versus direct, et cetera.

    我想,對於我的後續行動,我只是想把它放到事物的工業面。您對汽車通路與直銷等方面的訂單模式等進行了詳細的說明。

  • We heard from other companies that they're seeing some of the green shoots and I know those are dangerous word these days, but nonetheless, in the industrial business. I just wondered what you're seeing on that side of things, both direct or geographically and then, of course, the channel.

    我們從其他公司聽說,他們看到了一些復甦的跡象,我知道這些詞在當今是一個危險的詞,但無論如何,在工業領域。我只是想知道你對事物的這一方面有什麼看法,無論是直接的還是地理上的,當然還有管道。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. As a precursor to this, I'm a little bit humble when it comes to looking at NXP as a bellwether for the industrial sector. I mean, we are comparably small. So I'm a little bit careful in taking my commentary now as a strong direction for the whole industry. What we are seeing is that actually in Q1 from a performance perspective to actual performance, but also for the guidance of the second quarter, which is up mid-single digit.

    是的。作為此事的先驅,當我將恩智浦視為工業領域的領頭羊時,我感到有些謙虛。我的意思是,我們相對較小。因此,我現在對我的評論持謹慎態度,認為它是整個行業的一個強有力的方向。我們看到的是,實際上從第一季的業績角度來看,實際業績以及第二季的預期都實現了中等個位數的成長。

  • It is more or less by the consumer IoT part than the core industrial part. The ratio is still about the same as we discussed earlier, Ross, which is that 60-40 between core industrial and consumer IoT. But directionally, both in Q1, but also now into Q2, it is the consumer IoT part, which is strong on a relative basis.

    它或多或少是由消費者物聯網部分而不是核心工業部分構成的。這個比例仍然和我們之前討論的差不多,羅斯,即核心工業和消費者物聯網之間的比例為 60-40。但從方向來看,無論是在第一季度,還是現在進入第二季度,消費者物聯網部分都相對強勁。

  • However, I do believe, Ross, that also has to do with company-specific design wins. We just have a number of really strong design wins and again, they are specifically in China, which are now playing out nicely in the first half of this year. So I don't know we can take this as a proxy for the industry. It's probably pretty specific to NXP.

    然而,羅斯,我確實相信,這也與公司特定設計的勝利有關。我們剛剛贏得了一些非常強大的設計勝利,而且這些勝利都在中國,在今年上半年取得了良好的效果。所以我不知道我們是否可以將此作為該行業的代表。這可能與 NXP 有關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯‧卡索(Chris Caso),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • I wonder if you could expand a little bit on some of the comments you made on your China-for-China strategy. And I guess how far that progresses -- and I guess, ultimately, within China, how much of your China revenue do you expect to be able to supply domestically and under which time?

    我想知道您是否可以稍微詳細闡述您對「中國對中國」策略的一些評論。我想,這一進程會如何發展?我想,最終,在中國,您預計有多少中國收入能夠供應國內市場,以及供應期限是多久?

  • And then maybe you could speak a little bit to the US, obviously, because that's something we're awaiting the regulations and how much of the US you'd be able to satisfy from a US fab?

    然後也許您可以談談美國的情況,顯然,因為這是我們正在等待的法規,以及您能從美國晶圓廠滿足多少美國的需求?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. So first of all, the China-for-China strategy has two legs. One is the manufacturing lag, which I will expand on in a second. The other one, I think, structurally or strategically even more important is the road mapping and product generation dedicated for Chinese customers with a consideration of them and lead customers. Given that they are really setting the pace now in the automotive and industrial sector when it comes to innovation.

    是的。首先,「中國對華戰略」有兩個支柱。一是製造滯後,我稍後會詳細說明。另一個我認為從結構或策略上來說更為重要的是,為中國客戶制定路線圖和產品生成方案,並考慮到中國客戶和主要客戶。鑑於他們在創新方面確實在汽車和工業領域處於領先地位。

  • And I might have talked last call about the fact that I even changed the management team of NXP to the extent that I have a legal now directly reporting to me, who runs the China business to make sure we have full visibility on the higher level in the company.

    我在上次電話會議上可能已經談到,我甚至改變了恩智浦的管理團隊,現在有一名法務人員直接向我匯報,負責中國區的業務,以確保我們在公司高層擁有充分的透明度。

  • All the specific product needs. So the product road mapping is a very important strategic element. Now back to your question on the manufacturing side. We have currently about -- by the way, everything I say now is wafer manufacturing.

    所有特定的產品需求。因此產品路線圖是一個非常重要的策略要素。現在回到您關於製造方面的問題。我們目前有——順便說一下,我現在說的一切都是晶圓製造。

  • There is different considerations when you think about back-end test and assembly versus front end wafer manufacturing. I speak now about wafer manufacturing, where we have about 30% capability at the moment to supply not only capabilities.

    當您考慮後端測試和組裝與前端晶圓製造時,需要考慮不同的因素。我現在談論的是晶圓製造,目前我們擁有約 30% 的產能,不僅僅提供產能。

  • It's actually what we do to supply for our China for China business. So from the revenues, which we currently ship China for China, 30% are actually sourced in China. And of course, we work hard to expand this.

    這實際上就是我們為中國市場提供產品的業務。因此,從我們目前向中國出口的收入來看,30%實際上來自中國。當然,我們會努力擴大這個範圍。

  • Now don't assume that the rest is in the US. You know that we have we have 60% of our overall vehicles coming from foundries, which are typically not in the US. So we have a much higher number which is non-US sourced, which is then from Europe and other places in Asia, serving China. So it's a much higher number than the 30%, which is already in China.

    現在不要假設其餘部分都在美國。您知道,我們 60% 的車輛都來自鑄造廠,而這些鑄造廠通常不在美國。因此,我們的非美國來源產品數量要多得多,這些產品來自歐洲和亞洲其他地方,為中國提供服務。所以這個數字比中國現有的 30% 高很多。

  • But again, we want to work this as high as possible as soon as possible to have maximum independence here relative to possible tariffs to that end. I wouldn't actually say Chris, the tariffs, of course, are now adding uncertainty and complexity, but the China for China strategy, which I can speak about here is not counting we now suddenly did because of the tariffs.

    但同樣,我們希望盡快完成這項工作,以便在可能的關稅方面擁有最大的獨立性。我實際上不會說克里斯,當然,關稅現在增加了不確定性和複雜性,但我可以在這裡談論的中國對華戰略並沒有考慮到我們現在因為關稅而突然採取的措施。

  • We had that actually in place for probably more than two years, given the revenue opportunity, which we see for our core markets automotive and industrial in China, where we just see that the industry in China is leading the pack now from a global perspective, which is why we've been leaning into this already for a long time.

    考慮到我們在中國汽車和工業領域的核心市場的收入機會,我們實際上已經實施了這一戰略兩年多了,從全球角度來看,中國的汽車和工業領域目前處於領先地位,這也是我們長期以來一直傾向於這一戰略的原因。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • As a follow-up, a question for Bill. And I think you made a comment that you would get to your 30 -- I'm sorry, your 23% expense as a percentage of revenue target in the second half of the year after accounting for the acquisitions. Could you go into a little more detail on that? And what assumptions you're making to get to those numbers?

    作為後續問題,我向比爾提一個問題。我認為您曾說過,在計入收購之後,您將在今年下半年實現 30% 的支出佔收入百分比的目標——對不起,是 23% 的支出佔收入百分比的目標。您能否更詳細地介紹一下這一點?您根據什麼假設得出這些數字?

  • William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, sure. So on operating expenses, right, we're not guiding in the second half. You could see in Q1, we were favorable against our guidance. So that means we're ahead of the plan of the restructuring activities. And we're going to continue that into Q2 and Q3 because it's time-phased.

    是的,當然。因此,對於營運費用,我們沒有對下半年做出預測。您可以看到,在第一季度,我們的業績超出了我們的預期。這意味著我們領先於重組活動計劃。我們將在第二季和第三季繼續這一進程,因為它是分階段的。

  • Think about at the end of June 30, we will have probably 1,250 extra employees joining us for a full quarter effect starting in Q3 and Q4. And you're right in my prepared remarks. Basically, what we're doing is continue making space for those acquisitions so that we can absorb and hit our model at 23%.

    想想看,截至 6 月 30 日,我們可能會有 1,250 名額外員工加入我們,從第三季和第四季開始產生整個季度的影響。您在我準備好的發言中說得非常正確。基本上,我們正​​在做的是繼續為這些收購騰出空間,以便我們能夠吸收並達到 23% 的模型。

  • Obviously, we're not guiding in the second half, but we have scenarios on what revenue we think we want to go do and different levers to go pull against that. But we feel pretty confident and land sometime in 2020 -- the second half of 2025 at the model.

    顯然,我們不會為下半年做出預測,但我們對想要實現的收入目標以及實現這一目標的不同槓桿都有自己的想像。但我們非常有信心,預計在 2020 年的某個時候實現這一目標——按照模型,也就是 2025 年下半年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Francois Bouvignies, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的 Francois Bouvignies。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • And again, Kurt, thank you very much for your help. And you will be missed as the CEO leaving, but well deserved, have to say as well. The two questions I had is on -- firstly, on -- you said the cut that you don't see much pull in so far and not much impact there in terms of order behavior. Obviously, you managed very well during COVID the inventories in the channel.

    再次感謝庫爾特的幫助。作為即將離任的首席執行官,我們會想念您的,但不得不說,這也是您應得的。我有兩個問題:首先,您說到目前為止您沒有看到太大的拉動,而且在訂單行為方面也沒有太大的影響。顯然,在 COVID 期間,你們很好地管理了通路中的庫存。

  • So my question is, if you were seeing some pull-in at some point, would you allow your customers to increase their inventories? Or would you control it the way you did during COVID. I mean how do you want to play this dynamic here given, I mean, your customers, maybe they would like to increase the buffer and inventory may be above some level that you used to -- you would like to see?

    所以我的問題是,如果您在某個時候看到一些拉動,您會允許您的客戶增加庫存嗎?或者你會像在 COVID 期間那樣控制它。我的意思是,考慮到您的客戶,您可能希望增加緩衝,並且庫存可能高於您以前的某個水平 - 您希望看到的?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, and Francois by the way, I'm still long for full half year. So this is not a good slide for -- on the pull-ins. So yes, I, first of all, reconfirmed through Q1 and through quarter-to-date we have not seen Poland. So I say that very explicitly, we checked it very carefully, customer by customer because we wanted to be sure that this is clean of that.

    是的。謝謝,順便說一下,弗朗索瓦,我還盼望整整半年。因此,這對拉入來說不是一個好的幻燈片。是的,首先,我再次確認,透過第一季以及本季迄今為止我們還沒有看到波蘭的情況。所以我非常明確地說,我們非常仔細地檢查了每一個客戶,因為我們想確保沒有那個。

  • If it was to happen, I think the underlying policy for spare continues to be -- we don't want this. We don't like that. Now there could be specific reasons in specific cases with specific customers where they can explain us why it makes sense and we might want to do it.

    如果這種情況真的發生了,我認為備用的基本政策仍然是——我們不想要這種情況。我們不喜歡那樣。現在,特定客戶的特定情況下可能會有特定的原因,他們可以向我們解釋為什麼這樣做是有意義的,我們可能想要這樣做。

  • But I would say, especially on the distribution side, which is more than 50% of NXP I think I said in my prepared remarks, we want to stay flat to the nine weeks inventory into the second quarter, where, again, we wouldn't want to allow it.

    但我想說,特別是在分銷方面,佔恩智浦半導體 50% 以上的份額,我想我在準備好的發言中說過,我們希望在第二季度保持九週庫存持平,但我們不想允許這種情況發生。

  • And I also said, and I don't know CJ or Ross asked earlier, we are still busy with some Tier 1 automotive customers to digest inventory. And for that same reason, we don't have a hell lot of appetite to consider plans I'd say with possible exceptions always in the range of the moment, we don't want that. We would not want to support.

    而且我還說了,我不知道 CJ 或 Ross 之前問過,我們仍在忙著與一些一級車客戶消化庫存。出於同樣的原因,我們不太願意考慮計劃,我想說,除了可能出現的例外情況外,我們並不想要那樣。我們不想支持。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • Maybe my follow-up would be for Bill on the gross margin side. I mean your inventory days are relatively high when you look at the history, you said you think it will be flat and then when I look at the gross margin, you are around 56 -- low 56 in H1.

    也許我會跟進比爾關於毛利率方面的問題。我的意思是,從歷史記錄來看,您的庫存天數相對較高,您說您認為它會持平,然後當我查看毛利率時,您的毛利率在 56 左右 - H1 為 56 以下。

  • I look at the consensus, it has more than 57% gross margin in the second half of the year. So how should we think about the gross margin here? Because it seems tricky to get a big improvement of gross margin with inventories having to come down on your balance sheet, maybe not in Q2, but in Q3, Q4.

    我看了一下共識,下半年的毛利率超過57%。那我們該如何看待這裡的毛利率呢?因為在資產負債表上庫存下降的情況下,要大幅提高毛利率似乎很困難,也許不是在第二季度,而是在第三、第四季。

  • So can you help us or reassure us on the gross margin side trajectory in the second half of the year? Can it go up despite inventories coming down on your balance sheet? And maybe you can remind us the mix effect?

    那麼您能否幫助我們或向我們保證下半年的毛利率走勢?儘管資產負債表上的庫存下降,但它還能上升嗎?也許您可以提醒我們混合效果?

  • William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure, absolutely. Very fair question. So let me just repeat. In Q1, we had a slight mix driven by our product and channel mix and if we hold everything equally and going into Q2, we're just saying, okay, right now, our order book is pretty full. We actually see the mix and it says similar mix as Q1 and we're getting the fall-through on the higher revenues over fixed costs, and that's why we guided the $56.3 million.

    當然,絕對是如此。非常公平的問題。讓我再重複一次。在第一季度,我們的產品和管道組合略有變化,如果我們將所有東西都保持相同,進入第二季度,我們只能說,好吧,現在,我們的訂單已經很滿了。我們實際上看到了這種組合,它與第一季的組合類似,而且我們得到了固定成本高於收入的結果,這就是我們指導 5,630 萬美元的原因。

  • Now without providing guidance for the second half of 2025. The best way to think about our gross margin is a function of revenue levels before any of our company-specific drivers to influence it.

    目前尚未提供 2025 年下半年的指導。考慮我們的毛利率的最佳方式是將其作為收入水準的函數,然後再考慮公司特定的驅動因素對其產生的影響。

  • So for example, at a $13 billion revenue annual number left, we will feel very confident at 58% plus or minus $12 billion 57%, $11 billion 56% and again, that's at plus or minus 50 basis points. And we demonstrate those levels in the past. Now from an upside perspective, we obviously had these additional levers to drive gross margin much higher.

    舉例來說,如果剩餘的年收入為 130 億美元,那麼我們會非常有信心達到 58%;如果為 120 億美元,則為 57%;如果為 110 億美元,則為 56%;同樣,這也就是正負 50 個基點。我們過去就已展現出這些水準。現在從好的角度來看,我們顯然有這些額外的槓桿來大幅提高毛利率。

  • And they include increasing our internal utilization again that 70% and it's staying at 70% because of our inventory, as you said, is at higher. The consolidation of our 200-meter factories, we will be talking more about that in the second half. We're increasing our industrial and IoT go-to-market through our channel.

    其中包括再次提高我們的內部利用率,從 70% 提高到 70%,並且由於我們的庫存較高(正如您所說),因此保持在 70% 左右。我們將在下半年更多地討論我們 200 公尺工廠的整合。我們正在透過我們的管道增加工業和物聯網的市場佔有率。

  • So we want to focus on addressing that max market. We also have -- and by the way, our company-specific accelerate growth drivers are tracking to our growth plans versus Investor Day.

    因此,我們希望集中精力解決這個最大市場。順便說一句,我們公司特定的加速成長動力正在追蹤我們的成長計畫與投資者日。

  • I know we're only one quarter in, but everything is good there. We have the normal operational efficiency of our projects to offset just the annual pricing low single digit that we occur. So those two offset each other. And a bit longer term, which we've shared all of last year, we will leverage our DSMC 300-millimeter joint venture with Vanguard, which is tracking slightly ahead of schedule. So we feel pretty good about that.

    我知道我們只進行了四分之一,但一切都很好。我們的專案營運效率正常,足以抵銷每年發生的個位數低定價。所以這兩者是互相抵消的。從更長遠的角度來看,正如我們去年全年所分享的那樣,我們將利用與 Vanguard 建立的 DSMC 300 毫米合資企業,該合資企業的進度略微提前了一點。所以我們對此感覺很好。

  • So overall, stepping back with the revenue numbers I just gave you, we feel very confident to deliver our long-term gross margin range of 57% to 63%. It really is where revenue comes from is the influence at starting point, and then you have these levers on inventory again.

    因此,總體而言,回顧我剛才提供的收入數字,我們非常有信心實現 57% 至 63% 的長期毛利率範圍。收入的真正來源是起點的影響,然後你再次利用這些庫存槓桿。

  • On inventory, again, you're right, 169 days is probably the upper bounds might like it for sure, related to it. You have to think -- we manage Q4 going into Q1, we had to manage the asset dollars because it was the variable orders with our suppliers, and we kept utilizations internally.

    關於庫存,您再說一次是對的,169 天可能是上限,肯定會喜歡它,與它有關。你必須想想——我們管理進入第一季的第四季度,我們必須管理資產美元,因為這是我們與供應商的可變訂單,我們在內部保持利用率。

  • So going into Q2 and also Q3, again, $169 million because we have a backlog that we see actually is okay so far for Q3 and so we have to make sure we take that into account to make sure we build the proper product.

    因此,進入第二季度和第三季度,我們再次看到 1.69 億美元的積壓訂單,我們認為到目前為止第三季度的積壓訂單實際上還可以,因此我們必須確保考慮到這一點,以確保我們生產出合適的產品。

  • So -- but as you all know, the uncertainty around the macro effects related to global tariffs, and more importantly, the number of potential disruptions from a supply chain perspective that could occur and we start to read about.

    所以——但正如大家所知,全球關稅相關的宏觀影響存在不確定性,更重要的是,從供應鏈角度來看,可能發生的潛在中斷數量也很多,我們開始閱讀。

  • We believe holding a bit more inventory is important from the lessons learned from the past. But again, I agree with you, the $169 million in the upper balance, and we're going to probably adjust this once we learn a little bit more about second half and confidence of second half revenue.

    我們認為,從過去的教訓來看,持有更多的庫存是很重要的。但是,我再次同意你的觀點,上限餘額為 1.69 億美元,一旦我們對下半年的情況和對下半年收入的信心有了更多了解,我們可能會調整這個數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

    拉斯貢(Stacy Rasgon),伯恩斯坦研究公司。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • Bill, first, a question for you. So I know you said you weren't guiding the second half. That being said, the OpEx targets, I mean, you're running $710 million a quarter in OpEx, 23% of that would be like $3.1 billion at some point in the second half. You got close to $50 million a quarter in OpEx coming in Q3.

    比爾,首先,我想問你一個問題。所以我知道你說過你沒有指導下半場。話雖如此,但營運支出目標,我的意思是,你每季的營運支出為 7.1 億美元,其中的 23% 在下半年某個時候將達到 31 億美元。第三季的營運支出接近 5,000 萬美元。

  • So I mean, $750 million a quarter would be like $3.3 billion at some point in the second half. I mean are these the kinds of revenue targets into the second half that you have in mind when you give those OpEx targets? Like how do we think about that in the context of everything else.

    所以我的意思是,每季 7.5 億美元相當於下半年某個時候的 33 億美元。我的意思是,當您制定這些營運支出目標時,您是否考慮過下半年的收入目標?例如我們如何在其他一切事物的背景下思考這個問題。

  • William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Betz - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, let me remind you about the Q2 OpEx number. There is a onetime payment from a reoccurring license that occurs each year. That's about $16 million to one of our peers, and I've had that in my prepared remarks. I also mentioned that we continue to restructure the company to make space for these new acquisitions, which I have not disclosed the size from an operating expense standpoint. Related to it.

    好吧,讓我提醒您第二季的營運支出數字。每年都會產生一次性的重複許可證付款。對於我們的一位同行來說,這大約是 1600 萬美元,我在準備好的演講稿中已經提到了這一點。我還提到,我們將繼續重組公司,為這些新收購騰出空間,從營運費用的角度來看,我還沒有透露收購的規模。與此有關。

  • So we feel pretty confident under the different types of revenue scenarios that we can model because we have other levers to make sure -- and remember, what I said and what our whole message is we are redoubling our efforts on the areas that we can control.

    因此,我們對可以模擬的不同類型的收入情景感到非常有信心,因為我們有其他槓桿來確保——記住,我所說的話以及我們的整個信息是,我們正在加倍努力,在我們可以控制的領域。

  • And as you know, Stacy, the two things that we like to control is our spend because that we can do as well as, to some extent, the inventory time based on what we're building and not building and taking in place in bets with those orders with the unknown macro environment. Hopefully, that helps provide additional context.

    如你所知,史黛西,我們喜歡控制的兩件事是我們的支出,因為在某種程度上,我們可以做得和庫存時間一樣好,這取決於我們正在建造的和沒有建造的,並在未知的宏觀環境下對這些訂單進行押注。希望這有助於提供更多背景資訊。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • Got it. That is helpful. And I guess for my follow-up, I guess I'm going to try it. So I know, again, you said you didn't want to give color on the back up. But I mean any just even soft commentary on how you guys are seeing Q3 right now?

    知道了。這很有幫助。我想,為了後續行動,我會試試看。所以我再次知道,你說過你不想在背面添加顏色。但我的意思是,對於你們現在如何看待第三季度,有什麼哪怕是溫和的評論嗎?

  • Like I mean, what's typical seasonality in Q3? Is there any reason to expect you could be above or below that typical season now? I'm just -- I'm sympathetic to the idea that nobody knows what the hell is going on at all right now. But any color you can give us at all even a little bit further out would be helpful if you're so inclined.

    我的意思是,第三季的典型季節性是什麼?有什麼理由可以預期你現在的表現會高於或低於典型的賽季嗎?我只是——我很同情這個想法,沒有人知道現在到底發生了什麼事。但如果您願意的話,您可以提供任何顏色,即使是稍微遠一點的顏色,都會很有幫助。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. Steve, this is Kurt. Look, last year, we did this, and you know that we were wrong. We call the cycle, which didn't happen. And one of the learnings from that was that we would not want to repeat this.

    是的。史蒂夫,這是庫爾特。你看,去年我們這樣做了,你知道我們錯了。我們稱之為循環,但這並沒有發生。從中我們得到的教訓之一就是我們不想再重複這樣的事情。

  • Now this year, the situation is even more complex because as I said in my prepared remarks, on the one hand, we do see now what has been always good early innings of the cycle recovery. I mean that's very positive on what we see there.

    今年的情況更加複雜,因為正如我在準備好的發言中所說,一方面,我們現在確實看到了周期復甦的良好初期階段。我的意思是,我們看到的情況非常積極。

  • At the same time, we have this pretty material uncertainty of the indirect impact from the third, which we just cannot figure out what they would possibly mean for the second half. Therefore, we wanted to draw a clear line not even for a software for the second half. We just can't. It would be really irresponsible to do it. So we stick to quarter two.

    同時,我們對第三季的間接影響存在相當大的不確定性,我們無法弄清楚這對下半年可能意味著什麼。因此,我們想為下半場的軟體劃出一條明確的界線。我們就是不能。這樣做實在是不負責任的。所以我們堅持第二季。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • I mean, how do you even tell the difference between like a cycle recovery or green shoots and pull forwards and short-term orders and things like that way. Wouldn't they look the same?

    我的意思是,你怎麼能區分週期復甦、復甦萌芽、向前推進和短期訂單等?它們看起來不一樣嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • We can't really see that because as I gave you again a couple of elements, one of them was that the backlog of our distribution and customers, which we see by product is starting to grow after a long, long period of absolutely no growth or even decline. And that is different customers, new customers, new products, that is totally different to a pull-in, absolutely no pull-in.

    我們實際上看不到這一點,因為正如我再次提到的幾個因素,其中之一就是我們的分銷和客戶的積壓,我們從產品中看到,在經歷了很長一段時間的完全沒有增長甚至下降之後,開始增長。這就是不同的客戶、新客戶、新產品,與吸引完全不同,絕對不是吸引。

  • I also talked about a nicely stabilized order carbon from our direct customers, which has been in decline for a long, long, long period and has now stabilized across the board. Which is not a pull-in because it's far to even to be a pull in.

    我還談到了我們直接客戶的碳訂單的穩定情況,這一情況已經持續下降了很長一段時間,現在已經全面穩定下來。這不是一個吸引人的地方,因為它甚至不夠吸引人。

  • So we think we can clearly differentiate between those because, as I said earlier to, I think Francois, we want to avoid to entertain pull-ins and increase inventories again. So Stacy, that's for us a pretty focal point.

    因此,我們認為我們可以清楚地區分這些,因為正如我之前所說的那樣,我認為弗朗索瓦,我們希望避免再次拉動並增加庫存。所以,史黛西,這對我們來說是一個非常關注的焦點。

  • So therefore, no, let's stick to the second quarter and see how that all this plays out with the uncertainty which is provided to us from the therapy landscape to our customers. Stacy, what we do is we speak to our customers, and that's where that uncertainty comes from.

    因此,不,讓我們堅持到第二季度,看看這一切如何與治療領域為我們的客戶提供的不確定性一起發揮作用。史黛西,我們的工作就是與客戶交談,而不確定性正是由此產生的。

  • I mean, it's not us inventing it but we have no better source than speaking to our customers big and small across the different segments, and they have no idea what the second half should look like. So how should we make it up?

    我的意思是,這不是我們發明的,但我們沒有比與不同領域的大小客戶交談更好的資源,他們不知道下半場應該是什麼樣子。那我們該如何彌補呢?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

    Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back to the green shoots that were discussed because when I look at your Q1 results, auto and industrial sales, industrial IoT sales are actually modestly below expectations. I think the upside came from mobile and the comm segment.

    我只是想回到討論過的綠芽,因為當我查看您的第一季業績時,汽車和工業銷售額、工業物聯網銷售額實際上略低於預期。我認為優勢來自於行動和通訊領域。

  • And Q2, you're largely guiding to seasonal trends. So if there are green shoots, is it fair to say they have not yet shown up in this first half and they could show up in the second half? I'm just trying to get a sense for where are these green showing up, if any?

    而第二季度,您主要引導的是季節性趨勢。那麼,如果出現了復甦的跡象,是否可以說,它們在上半年尚未出現,但可能會在下半年出現?我只是想知道這些綠色出現在哪裡(如果有的話)?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • You don't know what we thought it was earlier because you practice already in Q1 to a soft guide for Q2, where, I don't know, I think I said it's maybe flat or very, very slightly up. No.

    您不知道我們之前是怎麼想的,因為您已經在 Q1 中練習過 Q2 的軟指導,我不知道,我想我說過它可能是持平的,或者非常非常輕微的上升。不。

  • The -- but I think there was something very relevant in your question, which is in Q1, indeed, auto and industrial and IoT were a touch light against guidance, while the other two segments were a touch richer. That has a reason. And it is actually Japan and China.

    但我認為你的問題中有一個非常相關的內容,那就是在第一季度,汽車、工業和物聯網確實與預期相差甚遠,而其他兩個領域的表現則更加出色。這是有原因的。實際上是日本和中國。

  • So it is the seasonal weakness of China automotive, which was a little bit stronger than what we had anticipated. Again, we know that, that was to happen. So we -- it was forecasted, but not to the full extent it came. And in Japan, I think I've talked about this earlier. It is the price change, which is leading customers to finally, remind you that for several years, we have either increased prices or kept them flat.

    因此,這是中國汽車市場的季節性疲軟,比我們預期的要強一些。再說一次,我們知道,那將會發生。所以我們 — — 它被預測到了,但並沒有完全實現。在日本,我想我之前已經談論過這個問題。正是價格的變化,最終導致客戶提醒您,幾年來,我們要么提高了價格,要么保持價格穩定。

  • Now it was the first time that we offered a low single-digit price decline for customers also in Japan. So they were eagerly waiting and held actually back to purchase until they could enjoy the quarter two prices. So it's a bit of a -- it's specific.

    這是我們首次為日本客戶提供個位數的小幅價格下降。因此,他們熱切地等待,實際上一直等到可以享受第二季度的價格才購買。所以它有點——它很具體。

  • And for quarter two, we see things coming up -- what you don't see Vivek is, of course, what underneath is still at work from an inventory digestion perspective with the Tier 1 automotive customers, which is forging some of the nice uptake, which we are seeing. But again, you didn't call me -- you didn't hear me calling the cycle it.

    對於第二季度,我們看到了一些事情正在發生 - 當然,Vivek 你沒有看到的是從庫存消化的角度來看一級汽車客戶的底層工作仍在進行中,這正在形成一些我們看到的良好的吸收。但再說一次,你沒有叫我——你沒有聽到我把這個循環稱為它。

  • I said we see now trends which are or have been in the past, and I would say also now indicative of early innings of cycle recovery. but it's certainly not at the stage that we would say with belts and builds, everything is jumping up. That alone would not be given simply given the uncertainty which our customers face from Paris.

    我說我們現在看到的趨勢是過去曾經有過的,而且我想說現在也預示著週期復甦的早期階段。但它肯定還沒有達到我們所說的腰帶和身材都快速發展的階段。僅僅考慮到我們的客戶在巴黎面臨的不確定性,這一點是無法實現的。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Got it. And for my follow-up, the last, I think, forecast that we saw from IHS or S&P was for light vehicle production to be down, I think, low single digit.

    知道了。就我的後續情況而言,我認為,我們從 IHS 或標準普爾看到的最新預測是輕型汽車產量將下降,我認為是低個位數。

  • So let's assume that, that is the case, right, including all the effects of tariffs and whatnot. So if that is the industry backdrop, what does that tell us about what NXP's automotive business could do this year given all your company-specific growth drivers?

    所以讓我們假設情況確實如此,對吧,包括關稅等所有影響。那麼,如果這是行業背景,那麼考慮到所有公司特定的成長動力,這能告訴我們恩智浦的汽車業務今年將如何表現?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Well, let me confirm betas indeed, S&P just published their latest forecast for the year, which says the SAAR is going to be down by almost 2% this year. which compares to a flat line last quarter. So it has degraded, which maybe or maybe not as a consequence of the tariff fees. It could be. But the matter of the fact is, indeed, it is now a 2% decline in the forecast versus the flat line before.

    好吧,讓我確實確認貝塔係數,標準普爾剛剛發布了今年的最新預測,預測稱 SAAR 今年將下降近 2%。與上一季持平相比。所以它已經下降了,這可能是也可能不是關稅的結果。有可能。但事實是,與之前的持平相比,現在的預測確實下降了 2%。

  • As we said earlier, we are most guiding the year, and we're also not guiding the year for automotive, Vivek. However, the much bigger role continues to play the content increases.

    正如我們之前所說,我們主要對今年的情況進行指導,但對汽車行業的情況我們也沒有進行指導,Vivek。然而,隨著內容的增加,更大的作用仍在繼續發揮。

  • All of the growth drivers, which we have laid out at the last Investor Day in November, think about STDs, think about radar, think about electrification are likely at work. So we are on track on those. And I think it is those content increases, which should continue to make us very optimistic about automotive not as much the SAR.

    我們在 11 月的上一次投資者日上列出的所有成長動力,例如 STD、雷達、電氣化,都可能發揮作用。所以我們在這方面進展順利。我認為這些內容的增加應該會讓我們繼續對汽車產業非常樂觀,而不是對 SAR 如此。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • So does that -- they can offset the SAAR decline? Or are we willing to say that.

    那麼,它們能抵消 SAAR 的下降嗎?或者我們願意這麼說。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Vivek, I'll take that. I really think we're going to hold off giving any real color on where the second half could be revenue is. And you also have to remember, our revenue does not synchronize the global production quarter for quarter.

    維韋克,我接受。我確實認為我們將不會對下半年的收入狀況給予任何真實的暗示。而且您還必須記住,我們的收入與全球產量並不同步。

  • There's always a six-month or so lag between when we recognize revenue and when a car comes out of the factory, somewhere in the world has counted and so. So we really do want to respectfully non-addressed revenue targets or potentials in the second half. Tony, this would probably be our last analyst question, if you would.

    從我們確認收入到汽車出廠之間總會有六個月左右的滯後,世界上的某個地方已經進行了統計。因此,我們確實希望在下半年實現未解決的收入目標或潛力。東尼,如果可以的話,這可能是我們最後一個分析師問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Lipacis, Evercore ISI.

    馬克·利帕西斯(Mark Lipacis),Evercore ISI。

  • Mark Lipacis - Analyst

    Mark Lipacis - Analyst

  • And Kurt, congrats on your retirement. I really appreciate all your insights and help over the years and wish you luck. The question, Kurt, for you.

    庫爾特,恭喜你退休。我非常感謝您多年來的所有見解和幫助,並祝您好運。庫爾特,這個問題問你。

  • Every two to three years, there's like a new theory on inventory stocking that gets proposed before COVID, it was just in time and then -- then during COVID became just in case, announced just in time. And I think our own checks are consistent with your own that some of the Tier 1s are well below normal for their inventory stocking on semis at least.

    每隔兩到三年,就會出現一種關於庫存的新理論,這種理論是在新冠疫情之前提出的,是為了及時發布,然後在新冠疫情期間則是為了以防萬一,是為了及時發布。我認為我們自己的檢查結果與你們的一致,即至少一些一級供應商的半拖車庫存遠低於正常水平。

  • And my question is about like what would you expect on a restocking cycle? Are you of the view that that something has foundationally changed like you and your semiconductor peers, keep inventories well above normal and your lead times lower than where they had been historically.

    我的問題是,您對補貨週期有何期望?您是否認為某些事情已經從根本上發生了變化,例如您和您的半導體同行將庫存保持在遠高於正常水平,並且交貨時間低於歷史水平。

  • And then downstream, your supply chain feels comfortable with the idea of just keeping things very low, and then you don't really benefit from a restocking cycle? Or are you of the view that really nothing has changed and this is all driven by lead times -- well lead time stretch everybody is just going to restock again.

    那麼在下游,您的供應鏈對於將庫存保持在非常低的水平感到滿意,那麼您實際上並沒有從補貨週期中受益嗎?或者您認為實際上什麼都沒有改變,這都是由交貨時間決定的——交貨時間延長,每個人都會再次補貨。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • I fear, Mark, I have a bit of a frustrating answer. It's more the latter than the first. I'd say more than because there are multiple exceptions to this. I don't think that semiconductor companies in general will hold more inventory because it would be just a wrong inventory. That always creates a mix issue.

    馬克,我擔心我的答案會讓人有點沮喪。後者比前者更為明顯。我會說更多,因為對此有多種例外。我認為半導體公司一般不會持有更多庫存,因為那隻是錯誤的庫存。這總是會產生混合問題。

  • Both has got better in several cases is the communication and the alignment between customers and us on understanding the future on understanding where it could be bottlenecks. And of course, given the whole geopolitic turmoil, there is also a more sophisticated diversified supply chain in place now across the world, which eventually has going forward.

    在許多情況下,我們和客戶之間的溝通和協調都有所改善,對未來有了更好的了解,並對可能的瓶頸有了更好的理解。當然,考慮到整個地緣政治動盪,全球現在也建立了更複雜的多樣化供應鏈,最終將向前發展。

  • But fundamentally, I fear as an industry in total, intellectually, we've all learned a lot practically not much of that is actually happening as we speak. The working capital pressure across the supply chain is just too high to allow that to happen. With that, I guess, Jeff, that was the last question..

    但從根本上來說,我擔心作為一個行業,從智力上來說,我們都學到了很多東西,但實際上並沒有真正發生。整個供應鏈的營運資金壓力太高,無法達成這個目標。我想,傑夫,這是最後一個問題了。

  • Let me go to make just a couple of closing comments. We have now a very interesting crosshair situation between what I would call a significant macro uncertainty offered by the private tariffs.

    請允許我最後做幾點評論。我們現在面臨著一個非常有趣的十字準線局面,我稱之為私人關稅帶來的重大宏觀不確定性。

  • With the current tariffs, more the indirect impact of them rather than the direct, which is immaterial for us. standing against the clear early innings of the cycle recovery. Mind you that, for example, automotive terms were flat year on year already now in the second quarter.

    就目前的關稅而言,其間接影響大於直接影響,這對我們來說並不重要。與週期復甦的明顯早期階段背道而馳。請注意,例如,第二季度汽車價格已與去年同期持平。

  • So those two are competing orders, which are not easy to forecast into the rest of the year. With that, we continue to, I hope, show pretty strong resilience through the truck cycle. And at the same time, offer excellent exposure to the second growth drivers, especially in the automotive and industrial sectors.

    因此,這兩個訂單是競爭訂單,今年剩餘時間內的訂單狀況不容易預測。我希望,透過這種方式,我們能夠在卡車週期中繼續展現出相當強勁的韌性。同時,也為第二成長動力,特別是汽車和工業領域,提供了極佳的機會。

  • So we -- when we zoom out from this, we see us nicely on track to doubling our EPS by 2030 plus as we had laid out in our Investor Day last year in November. Of course, a lot of turmoil short term but seeing the cycle coming back now, of course, also shadow but an uncertainty in the macro from tariffs, but fundamentally seeing the cycle coming back, we consider as a pretty nice positive.

    因此,當我們從這個角度看時,我們可以看到我們預計在 2030 年前實現每股收益翻一番,正如我們在去年 11 月的投資者日上所規劃的那樣。當然,短期內會出現很多動盪,但現在看到週期回歸,當然,也有陰影,但宏觀上關稅存在不確定性,但從根本上看到週期回歸,我們認為是一個非常好的積極因素。

  • Thanks for your attention today and see you soon. Thank you

    感謝您今天的關注,我們很快就會再見。謝謝

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接。