諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Northrop Grumman's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2023 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2023 年第四季和年底的電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。我叫喬什，今天我將成為您的接線生。 （接線員指示）我現在想將電話轉給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Todd Ernst 先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. This morning, we'll refer to our presentation that's posted on our IR website. Before we get started, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2024 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

謝謝，喬許。早安，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2023 年第四季電話會議。今天早上，我們將參考發佈在 IR 網站上的簡報。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議討論的事項，包括 2024 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可獲得的信息做出的判斷。它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. And on the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司實際業績出現重大差異。今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益發布中的 GAAP 業績一致的非 GAAP 財務指標。今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁凱西沃登 (Kathy Warden)；以及我們的財務長戴夫凱弗 (Dave Keffer)。這時，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before discussing our 2023 results, I wanted to take a moment to thank our team for their hard work and dedication to our important mission. Our talented workforce, which is now over 100,000 strong continues to deliver some of the most advanced technologies in the world. These capabilities are used by our customers every day to defend freedom and deter aggression around the globe.

謝謝，托德。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。在討論我們 2023 年的業績之前，我想花點時間感謝我們的團隊為我們的重要使命所做的辛勤工作和奉獻。我們目前擁有超過 10 萬名才華橫溢的員工隊伍，繼續提供世界上一些最先進的技術。我們的客戶每天都在使用這些功能來捍衛全球自由並阻止侵略。

The geopolitical landscape has grown even more complex, driving continued increases in global security spending. Our strategy has positioned us well to compete and win in this growing market, which has translated into accelerating top line growth through Northrop Grumman.

地緣政治格局變得更加複雜，推動全球安全支出持續增加。我們的策略使我們能夠在這個不斷增長的市場中競爭並獲勝，這已轉化為諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司收入的加速成長。

Revenue increased by over 7% in 2023, ending the year, more than $1 billion above the midpoint of our original 2023 guidance. In addition, our book-to-bill for the year was 1.14x. That's in line with our exceptional 4-year average. As a result of this award strength, we achieved a new record backlog, which now exceeds $84 billion, and that provides a healthy foundation for our continued growth. The underlying performance of our company is strong. We generated free cash flow at the high end of our guidance range, and we comfortably exceeded our sales and EPS guidance range absent the B-21 charge.

截至 2023 年，營收成長了 7% 以上，比我們最初的 2023 年指引中位數高出 10 億美元以上。此外，我們今年的訂單出貨比為 1.14 倍。這與我們卓越的 4 年平均值一致。由於這項獎項的優勢，我們的積壓訂單創下了新紀錄，目前已超過 840 億美元，這為我們的持續成長奠定了良好的基礎。我們公司的基本業績強勁。我們產生的自由現金流處於指導範圍的高端，在不計入 B-21 費用的情況下，我們輕鬆超出了銷售額和 EPS 指導範圍。

While we're disappointed that our assessment of conditions for the low rate initial production portion of the B-21 program necessitated this charge in the quarter, we are confident in our ability to deliver on the company's forward outlook, which remains unchanged. We're also proud of the performance of the B-21 team which continues to execute an unparalleled aircraft development program.

雖然我們對 B-21 專案低速初始生產部分的條件評估需要在本季度支付這筆費用感到失望，但我們對實現公司未來前景的能力充滿信心，該前景保持不變。我們也為 B-21 團隊的表現感到自豪，該團隊繼續執行無與倫比的飛機開發計劃。

As we look forward, we will continue to execute our business strategy, which at its core, is based on technology differentiation, a laser focus on performance and value delivery for our customers and shareholders. To support this strategy, we are prioritizing investment in our capacity and capabilities. In 2023, we invested over $2.9 billion in R&D and CapEx, up 7.5% of sales, to continue driving innovation and capacity to support our customer mission success.

展望未來，我們將繼續執行我們的業務策略，其核心是技術差異化，高度專注於為客戶和股東提供績效和價值。為了支持這項策略，我們優先考慮對我們的產能和能力進行投資。 2023 年，我們在研發和資本支出方面投資超過 29 億美元，佔銷售額的 7.5%，以繼續推動創新和能力建設，支持我們的客戶使命成功。

We also delivered over $2.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing a return of approximately 125% of our 2023 free cash flow.

我們也透過股利和股票回購向股東交付了超過 26 億美元，相當於我們 2023 年自由現金流的約 125% 的回報。

So now I'll highlight a few examples of progress we've made across the portfolio that further bolster my confidence in our future. Shortly after the close of the fourth quarter, we announced our GEM 63XL solid rocket booster helped to successfully power ULA's Vulcan launch vehicle on its first mission. Future Vulcan missions will utilize additional GEM 63XLs in support of Amazon Kuiper and other ULA customers providing a significant growth opportunity for our propulsion business. And this is an important milestone because it supports our investment to significantly ramp production capacity of GEM 63s in the coming years.

因此，現在我將重點介紹我們在整個產品組合中取得的一些進展的例子，這些進展進一步增強了我對未來的信心。第四季結束後不久，我們宣布我們的 GEM 63XL 固體火箭助推器幫助成功為 ULA 的 Vulcan 運載火箭的首次任務提供動力。未來的 Vulcan 任務將利用額外的 GEM 63XL 來支援 Amazon Kuiper 和其他 ULA 客戶，為我們的推進業務提供重大成長機會。這是一個重要的里程碑，因為它支持我們在未來幾年大幅提高 GEM 63 產能的投資。

Global demand for our weapon systems increased in 2023, and we expect this trend to continue. In this market, we're both a supplier and a prime. We're a supplier of propulsion systems, warheads, fuses and cannons across a highly diversified customer base and a prime contractor for predominantly air-to-ground missiles including AARGM-ER and Stand In Attack Weapon. Weapon Systems currently represents approximately 7% of total revenue and based on the demand we're seeing, we expect this business to grow faster than the company average for the foreseeable future with a significant portion of this expansion coming from international customers.

2023 年，全球對我們武器系統的需求增加，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。在這個市場上，我們既是供應商，也是主要供應商。我們是推進系統、彈頭、引信和大砲的供應商，客戶群高度多元化，也是主要空對地飛彈（包括 AARGM-ER 和備用攻擊武器）的主承包商。武器系統目前約佔總收入的 7%，根據我們所看到的需求，我們預計在可預見的未來該業務的增長速度將快於公司平均水平，其中很大一部分擴張來自國際客戶。

In our Mission Systems business, demand remains exceptionally strong with a 2023 book-to-bill above 1.2x, the highest of all of our segments. As we've seen in recent years, the restricted portfolio of Mission Systems is a meaningful driver of growth. As our customers pursue solutions that enable them to operate inside the decision loop of potential adversaries who are also advancing their computing capabilities. We are helping our customers stay ahead by developing advanced microelectronics, sensors, processors and secure communications. Our product lines are enabling faster cycles of modernization, positioning our customers with decision advantage in this rapidly advancing technology environment.

在我們的任務系統業務中，需求仍然異常強勁，2023 年的訂單出貨比將超過 1.2 倍，是我們所有細分市場中最高的。正如我們近年來所看到的，任務系統的有限產品組合是一個有意義的成長動力。我們的客戶尋求的解決方案使他們能夠在潛在對手的決策環內運作，而這些對手也在提高他們的運算能力。我們透過開發先進的微電子、感測器、處理器和安全通訊來幫助客戶保持領先地位。我們的產品線正在實現更快的現代化週期，使我們的客戶在這個快速發展的技術環境中具有決策優勢。

And we continue to make significant progress on the EMD phase of Sentinel, which is the next-generation land-based leg of the strategic Triad. We are achieving milestones to mature the design and reduce risk, including key test activities such as the successful static fire test of the Sentinel Stage 2 solid rocket motor for the missile earlier this month. Last week, the Air Force submitted to Congress a new set of cost estimates for the program, which triggered a Nunn-McCurdy breach. This in turn, launches a review of the program by the Department of Defense, which we expect to be ongoing for the next several months.

我們繼續在 Sentinel 的 EMD 階段取得重大進展，這是戰略三位一體的下一代陸基分支。我們正在實現設計成熟和降低風險的里程碑，包括關鍵測試活動，例如本月早些時候成功進行了導彈前哨二級固體火箭發動機的靜態點火測試。上週，空軍向國會提交了該計劃的一套新的成本估算，引發了納恩-麥科迪協議的違約。這反過來又啟動了國防部對該計劃的審查，我們預計該審查將在未來幾個月內持續進行。

It's important to note that the cost growth is primarily driven by estimates for the command and launch facility build-out, which is part of the military construction and procurement phases of the program. We and our industry team are continuing to perform on the EMD phase in close partnership with the U.S. Air Force. And we'll work with the government to explore opportunities to reduce cost on the program with a focus on the late 2020s and beyond when the program is expected to move into the procurement phase. And in the fourth quarter, the B-21 entered its flight test phase. This is a major milestone for the program and achieving it within the baseline schedule is a credit to the Northrop Grumman team and our close partnership with the U.S. Air Force over the past several years.

值得注意的是，成本增長主要是由指揮和發射設施擴建的估計所推動的，這是該計劃軍事建設和採購階段的一部分。我們和我們的產業團隊將繼續與美國空軍密切合作，在 EMD 階段開展工作。我們將與政府合作，探索降低該計劃成本的機會，重點是 2020 年代末及以後，預計該計劃將進入採購階段。而在第四季度，B-21進入了試飛階段。這是該計劃的一個重要里程碑，在基準時間表內實現這一目標是諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊以及我們過去幾年與美國空軍密切合作的功勞。

Following this milestone, we were awarded the first LRIP lot in the fourth quarter, and production is now underway. Let me take a few moments to provide a little more detail on the B-21 charge. The possibility of which we started talking with you about at this time last year. As you know, like all of industry, we and our suppliers have experienced cost pressure from recent global macroeconomic conditions, which are significantly different from the assumptions the team made when bidding meets five production lots in 2015.

繼這一里程碑之後，我們在第四季度獲得了第一批 LRIP 批次，目前正在進行生產。讓我花點時間提供有關 B-21 攻擊的更多細節。去年這個時候我們就開始與您討論這個可能性。如您所知，與整個行業一樣，我們和我們的供應商經歷了近期全球宏觀經濟狀況帶來的成本壓力，這與團隊在2015 年投標滿足五個生產批次時所做的假設有很大不同。

During the fourth quarter of 2023, we again reviewed our estimated profitability on the LRIP phase of the program. And we now believe it is probable, each of the first 5 LRIP lots will be performed at a loss. The charge is largely driven by a change in our assumptions regarding funding to mitigate the impact of macroeconomic disruptions on the LRIP phase of the program and higher projected manufacturing costs that reflect recent supplier negotiations and our experience in completing the first aircraft. The after-tax cash impact related to these updates will be spread over a number of years. Importantly, we have absorbed this effect, and we have not changed our outlook for free cash flow growth over the next several years.

2023 年第四季度，我們再次審查了該計劃 LRIP 階段的預計獲利能力。我們現在認為，前 5 批 LRIP 批次很可能都會虧損。該費用主要是由於我們對資金的假設發生了變化，以減輕宏觀經濟幹擾對該計劃的LRIP 階段的影響，以及預計製造成本的增加，這反映了最近的供應商談判以及我們在完成第一架飛機方面的經驗。與這些更新相關的稅後現金影響將持續數年。重要的是，我們已經吸收了這種影響，我們沒有改變對未來幾年自由現金流成長的展望。

This is a game-changing capability that will be of great value to our nation, and we are focused on executing the program in a way that also delivers value to our shareholders over the coming decades. Turning now to the budget environment. Global national security spending is increasing as the U.S. and allies invest in capabilities to deter and defend against aggression. Demand for our capabilities remain strong, due to our differentiated portfolio and alignment to customer priorities, including the Triad, space and weapons.

這是一種改變遊戲規則的能力，將對我們的國家產生巨大的價值，我們致力於以一種在未來幾十年為我們的股東帶來價值的方式執行該計劃。現在轉向預算環境。隨著美國及其盟國投資於威懾和防禦侵略的能力，全球國家安全支出正在增加。由於我們的差異化產品組合以及與客戶優先事項（包括三位一體、太空和武器）的一致性，對我們能力的需求仍然強勁。

In the U.S., our franchise programs remain well supported by Congress and the Department of Defense. And this gives us confidence in our outlook even in a constrained U.S. budget environment. We are pleased to have an NDAA in place that provides continued support for defense spending, and we're hopeful that Congress will enact appropriation soon. Our guidance assumes we will not have a shutdown or a full year CR, and we're encouraged by the progress we've seen so far towards tapping appropriations in the March time frame.

在美國，我們的特許經營計畫仍然得到國會和國防部的大力支持。即使在美國預算緊張的環境下，這也讓我們對前景充滿信心。我們很高興有一項國防授權法案能夠為國防開支提供持續的支持，我們希望國會能夠盡快頒布撥款。我們的指導假設我們不會關閉或全年 CR，並且我們對迄今為止在 3 月份時間範圍內利用撥款方面所取得的進展感到鼓舞。

Additionally, we are monitoring progress on supplemental funding, and we see opportunities in expanding the industrial base and increasing munitions production in this pending request. Our allies are also increasing their defense spending, and we expect our alignment with their needs for aircraft, weapon systems and mission systems to be an additional source of growth. So as we look to the future, we have the right portfolio and team to deliver on our long-term outlook.

此外，我們正在監測補充資金的進展，並在這項待決請求中看到了擴大工業基礎和增加彈藥生產的機會。我們的盟友也在增加國防開支，我們預計我們與他們對飛機、武器系統和任務系統的需求的配合將成為額外的成長來源。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們擁有合適的投資組合和團隊來實現我們的長期前景。

Our organic sales have grown at a greater than 5% annual rate since 2019 and our guidance calls for continued growth of 4% to 5% in 2024. Segment operating margin dollars are expected to grow at roughly the same rate as sales in 2024. And our 2024 EPS guidance range of $24.45 to $24.85 at the midpoint represents roughly 6% growth, excluding the B-21 charge and 11% growth compared to our initial EPS estimates, which we provided in 2023.

自2019 年以來，我們的有機銷售額年增長率超過5%，我們的指導要求在2024 年繼續增長4% 至5%。預計該部門營業利潤率的增長率將與2024 年銷售額的增長率大致相同。我們的2024 年每股收益指引範圍中點為24.45 美元至24.85 美元，不包括B-21 費用，增長約6%，與我們在2023 年提供的最初每股收益估計相比，增長11 %。

In addition, the structural building blocks to expand our margin that we outlined in last year's 2Q earnings call, including dissipating macroeconomic headwinds, implementation of productivity and cost savings initiatives, and future favorable mix shifts remain in place. We are laser-focused on performance and bid discipline to drive margin expansion. And importantly, we continue to expect our free cash flow to grow at a double-digit rate over the coming years.

此外，我們在去年第二季財報電話會議中概述的擴大利潤率的結構性要素，包括消除宏觀經濟逆風、實施生產力和成本節約舉措以及未來有利的組合轉變仍然存在。我們高度關注績效和投標紀律，以推動利潤率擴張。重要的是，我們繼續預計未來幾年我們的自由現金流將以兩位數的速度成長。

We are reaffirming our 2024 and 2025 free cash flow outlook and we've also introduced a 2026 outlook of $3.3 billion at the midpoint. With the businesses generating significant cash flow, we have considerable flexibility in deploying capital to generate value for customers and shareholders. Our top priority remains investing to support our business strategy and we expect to invest over 7% of sales again in 2024 in capital expenditures and R&D.

我們重申 2024 年和 2025 年自由現金流前景，並提出 2026 年中位數 33 億美元的前景。由於業務產生大量現金流，我們在部署資本為客戶和股東創造價值方面具有相當大的靈活性。我們的首要任務仍然是投資以支持我們的業務策略，我們預計到 2024 年將再次將銷售額的 7% 以上投資於資本支出和研發。

At the same time, we'll continue to provide strong capital returns to our shareholders. Last month, our Board of Directors increased our share repurchase authorization by an additional $2.5 billion, and we ended the year with a remaining authorization of $3.6 billion. For 2024, we expect to increase our share repurchases to at least $2 billion. This includes a $1 billion ASR that we plan to initiate in the coming days based on the strong liquidity position with which we entered this year. So when we take these factors, sustainable top line growth with expanding margins, and couple those with declining capital intensity and lower projected cash taxes, you get a recipe for robust cash flow growth for years to come.

同時，我們將繼續為股東提供豐厚的資本回報。上個月，我們的董事會將股票回購授權額外增加了 25 億美元，年底時我們的剩餘授權為 36 億美元。到 2024 年，我們預計將股票回購額增加到至少 20 億美元。這包括我們計劃在未來幾天啟動的 10 億美元 ASR，這是基於我們今年進入的強勁流動性狀況。因此，當我們考慮這些因素，即可持續的營收成長和不斷擴大的利潤率，再加上資本密集度下降和預計現金稅降低的因素，你就會得到未來幾年現金流強勁增長的秘訣。

So now I'll turn it over to Dave to provide you more details on the segment results, 2024 guidance and the forward outlook. Dave?

因此，現在我將把它交給戴夫，為您提供有關部門業績、2024 年指導和前瞻性展望的更多詳細資訊。戴夫？

Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. We finished the year with strong momentum, enabling us to reaffirm and build upon our favorable forward outlook. I'll start by elaborating on our 2023 results and then provide additional details on our guidance. On the demand side, we ended 2023 with over $84 billion in backlog, a new record for our company. All four of our segments generated a full year book-to-bill ratio over onetime sales.

謝謝，凱西，大家早安。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，使我們能夠重申並鞏固我們良好的未來前景。我將首先詳細闡述 2023 年的結果，然後提供有關我們的指導的更多詳細資訊。在需求方面，截至 2023 年，我們的積壓訂單超過 840 億美元，這是我們公司的新紀錄。我們所有四個部門的全年訂單出貨比都超過了一次性銷售。

We also continued to deliver strong top line results with Q4 sales of $10.6 billion, up 6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Full year sales were even stronger, up over 7% at $39.3 billion or roughly $300 million higher than our latest guidance. These top line results were enabled not only by the strong demand environment we're seeing among our customers, but also by our ability to ramp on new programs, expand our workforce and convert our backlog into sales.

我們也持續實現強勁的營收業績，第四季銷售額為106 億美元，比2022 年第四季成長6%。全年銷售額甚至更強勁，成長超過7%，達到393 億美元，比我們的最新指引高出約3 億美元。這些營收成果不僅得益於我們客戶的強勁需求環境，還得益於我們推出新項目、擴大員工隊伍並將積壓訂單轉化為銷售的能力。

Moving to segment results. We generated sales growth in each of our businesses in 2023. Aeronautics sales were up 2% for the year, returning to growth earlier than previously expected. As growth was driven by higher volume on restricted programs that more than offset declines on mature production programs. DS posted sales growth of 5%, led by higher volume in the weapons and missile defense portfolio. Mission Systems sales were also up 5%, driven by higher restricted sales on advanced microelectronics programs and higher volume on marine systems programs. And our Space business posted another quarter of double-digit top line growth, with sales up approximately 14% for the year. Nearly 40% of the growth came from Sentinel and NGI with the rest coming from our broad space portfolio.

轉向細分結果。 2023 年，我們各項業務的銷售額均實現成長。航空銷售額全年成長 2%，恢復成長的時間早於先前的預期。由於成長是由受限項目的產量增加所推動的，這足以抵消成熟生產項目的下降。 DS 的銷售額成長了 5%，主要得益於武器和飛彈防禦產品組合銷售的增加。由於先進微電子專案的限制性銷售增加以及海洋系統專案的銷售增加，任務系統的銷售額也增加了 5%。我們的太空業務又一個季度實現兩位數的營收成長，全年銷售額成長約 14%。近 40% 的成長來自 Sentinel 和 NGI，其餘則來自我們廣泛的航太產品組合。

As Kathy described, our segment margins included a charge for the B-21 program. The charge was primarily driven by the confluence of lower assumptions around macroeconomic disruption funding and higher production cost projections. While the full pretax charge had the effect of lowering our segment margins, only $143 million has been recorded as an EAC adjustment, including a $43 million reduction to Q4 sales. The remaining was booked as a contingent liability because the majority of the lots have yet to be awarded.

正如 Kathy 所描述的，我們的分部利潤包括 B-21 計劃的費用。這筆費用主要是由於宏觀經濟擾亂資金假設較低和生產成本預測較高的共同推動。雖然全額稅前費用降低了我們的部門利潤率，但 EAC 調整僅記錄了 1.43 億美元，其中包括第四季度銷售額減少的 4,300 萬美元。剩餘的部分被記為或有負債，因為大部分地塊尚未授予。

The charge also led to an $82 million benefit in corporate unallocated expense stemming from a reduction in deferred state taxes. Continuing with our results, Slide 5 shows the comparison of our 2023 earnings per share to the guidance we provided in October. Diluted EPS includes a $2.08 unfavorable mark-to-market adjustment from our pension plans and a $7.68 per share impact from the B-21 charge. Absent these items, we would have exceeded the high end of our prior EPS guidance range by over $0.40.

由於遞延州稅的減少，這項費用也為企業未分配費用帶來了 8,200 萬美元的收益。繼續我們的結果，幻燈片 5 顯示了我們 2023 年每股收益與我們 10 月提供的指導的比較。稀釋每股收益包括我們的退休金計劃按市值計價的 2.08 美元不利調整以及 B-21 費用帶來的每股 7.68 美元的影響。如果沒有這些項目，我們的每股盈餘指導範圍的上限將超出 0.40 美元以上。

Our 2023 mark-to-market adjusted EPS also included significantly less pension income compared to 2022. In total, net pension costs generated a $4.07 per share headwind in 2023.

與 2022 年相比，我們 2023 年按市值調整後的每股收益還包括顯著減少的退休金收入。總的來說，淨退休金成本在 2023 年產生了每股 4.07 美元的阻力。

Next, I'll take a few moments to discuss our cash flows. As is our historical pattern, we had an outstanding quarter of cash performance in Q4, generating $1.6 billion in free cash flow. For the full year, our operating cash flow was $3.9 billion, and our free cash flow was $2.1 billion. This result was near the high end of our guidance range and represented free cash flow growth of 30% compared to 2022. Turning to pension results, we generated strong asset returns of roughly 11% in 2023, ahead of our long-term assumptions. The FAS discount rate declined by roughly 40 basis points to 5.15%.

接下來，我將花一些時間討論我們的現金流。正如我們的歷史模式一樣，我們在第四季度的現金表現非常出色，產生了 16 億美元的自由現金流。全年，我們的營運現金流為 39 億美元，自由現金流為 21 億美元。這一結果接近我們指導範圍的高端，與2022 年相比，自由現金流增長了30%。談到退休金結果，我們在2023 年實現了約11% 的強勁資產回報，超出了我們的長期假設。 FAS 折現率下降約 40 個基點至 5.15%。

Netted together, along with updated Census data, this generated a mark-to-market pension expense of $422 million in our GAAP results. Slide 7 in our earnings deck summarizes our pension estimates for the next 3 years. We continue to expect CAS recoveries to increase from current levels, providing a benefit to our cash flows, but slightly less than prior projections and we expect a higher level of nonoperating FAS pension income in the coming years driven by our strong asset returns in 2023.

加上最新的人口普查數據，這在我們的 GAAP 結果中產生了 4.22 億美元的按市值計價的退休金支出。我們損益表中的投影片 7 總結了我們對未來 3 年退休金的估計。我們繼續預期CAS 回收率將從目前水準增加，從而為我們的現金流帶來好處，但略低於先前的預測，並且我們預計在2023 年強勁資產回報的推動下，未來幾年非經營性FAS退休金收入將達到更高水準。

In total, our funded status remains superb at nearly 100%. And we continue to project minimal cash pension contributions over the next several years. Turning to 2024. Slide 9 in our earnings deck includes our segment level guidance. Building off the strong top line results in Q4, we now expect Aeronautics sales in the low $11 billion, driven by growth on B-21 and on other programs such as F-35 and E-2D. This is higher than our prior sales estimates for AS, which reflected a flat 2023 and modest growth in 2024.

總的來說，我們的資助狀況仍然非常好，接近 100%。我們繼續預計未來幾年的現金退休金繳款最低限度。展望 2024 年。我們損益表中的幻燈片 9 包括我們的細分市場指引。基於第四季度強勁的營收業績，我們現在預計，在 B-21 以及 F-35 和 E-2D 等其他專案成長的推動下，航空銷售額將達到 110 億美元。這高於我們先前對 AS 的銷售預測，反映 2023 年持平，2024 年略有成長。

Higher B-21 sales also result in a slightly lower margin rate expectation for AS which we now project in the mid-9% netting out to a similar volume of margin dollars compared to prior estimates. DS sales are expected to be roughly $6 billion, up low single digits from 2023. And as we mentioned on the Q3 call, DS has really turned the corner on growth through strong demand for weapons and missile defense capabilities. We are optimistic in our ability to convert these opportunities into sustained growth in this business over time, which we expect to be partially offset by modest declines in the sustainment and training portions of the business.

B-21 銷量的增加也導致 AS 的利潤率預期略低，我們現在預計，與先前的估計相比，淨額將達到 9% 的中間水平，從而獲得類似的利潤率。 DS 銷售額預計約為60 億美元，比2023 年低個位數成長。正如我們在第三季電話會議中提到的，DS 透過對武器和飛彈防禦能力的強勁需求，確實扭轉了成長的局面。隨著時間的推移，我們對將這些機會轉化為該業務持續成長的能力感到樂觀，我們預計這種成長將被該業務的維持和培訓部分的小幅下降所部分抵消。

Margins are projected to remain strong at DS in the low 12% range. Mission Systems sales are expected in the low to mid-$11 billion range for another year of mid-single-digit growth with margins of roughly 15%. In that space, after expanding sales at a greater than 17% CAGR since 2019, growth is expected to moderate in 2024 with higher segment margins. Space sales are now expected in the mid- to high $14 billion range with margins of approximately 9%. The mid-single-digit growth rate in space reflects declines in a restricted program due to shifts in government priority, which are more than offset by growth in other parts of the space portfolio.

DS 的利潤率預計將保持在 12% 左右的強勁水平。任務系統銷售額預計將在 110 億美元中低端，今年將實現中個位數成長，利潤率約為 15%。在該領域，自 2019 年以來銷售額複合年增長率超過 17% 後，預計 2024 年成長將放緩，細分市場利潤率將更高。目前，空間銷售額預計在 140 億美元的中高端範圍內，利潤率約為 9%。航太領域中個位數的成長率反映出由於政府優先事項的轉變而導致限制性計畫的下降，而航太投資組合其他部分的成長足以抵消這一影響。

Having built a tremendous backlog in recent years, Space now has an opportunity to deliver strong ROI through more measured growth along with margin expansion and cash generation. At the company level, our guidance reflects growth in sales and segment margin between 4% and 5%, absent the B-21 charge consistent with the outlook we provided on our October call, even after delivering top line upside in Q4. We expect another solid year of bookings with a book-to-bill around 1x. And similar to our cadence over the last few years, we expect sales to ramp throughout the year with first quarter sales a little less than 24% of our full year estimate.

近年來，Space 積壓了大量訂單，現在有機會透過更穩健的成長以及利潤擴張和現金產生來實現強勁的投資回報率。在公司層面，我們的指導反映了銷售額和部門利潤率的成長，在4% 到5% 之間，不考慮B-21 費用，這與我們在10 月電話會議上提供的前景一致，即使在第四季度實現了營收成長之後也是如此。我們預計今年的預訂量將持續強勁，預訂出貨比將成長約 1 倍。與我們過去幾年的節奏類似，我們預計全年銷售額將持續成長，第一季銷售額略低於我們全年預期的 24%。

We plan to be in the market soon for new debt issuance to take advantage of the favorable rate environment. The proceeds from the debt issuance will also be used in part to support refinancings of $1.5 billion of notes that are coming due in January of 2025 as well as for general corporate purposes and share repurchases, including the $1 billion ASR we intend to initiate in the coming days. We've reflected this debt issuance in our interest expense guidance, and we'd also expect interest income to contribute to the EPS line as it did in 2023.

我們計劃盡快進入市場發行新債，以利用有利的利率環境。債券發行所得款項也將部分用於支持2025 年1 月到期的15 億美元票據的再融資，以及一般公司用途和股票回購，包括我們打算在2025 年1 月啟動的10 億美元ASR 。未來幾天。我們已在利息支出指引中反映了此次債務發行，我們也預計利息收入將像 2023 年一樣對每股收益做出貢獻。

We project an effective tax rate of approximately 17% in 2024, consistent with the range we've experienced over the last few years, excluding the mark-to-market adjustment and other unique items. We're coming closer to conclusions on a number of open audit and appeals processes with the IRS, which could have positive or negative effects on book and cash taxes as they're resolved over the next couple of years and our forward guidance does not include any such adjustments. Similarly, we have not factored any potential changes to R&D tax legislation into our outlook. And as a reminder, our interpretation of current tax law results in a projected 5-year impact from R&D amortization of approximately $2 billion.

我們預計 2024 年的有效稅率約為 17%，與過去幾年我們經歷的範圍一致，不包括按市值調整和其他獨特項目。我們正在接近與美國國稅局進行的一些公開審計和上訴程序的結論，這可能會對帳面稅和現金稅產生積極或消極的影響，因為它們將在未來幾年得到解決，而且我們的前瞻性指引不包括任何此類調整。同樣，我們沒有將研發稅收立法的任何潛在變化納入我們的展望中。提醒一下，我們對現行稅法的解釋導致研發攤銷預計 5 年影響約 20 億美元。

We will continue to track these matters carefully and provide updates as they progress. In total, we expect our 2024 earnings per share to be between $24.45 and $24.85 with approximately 148.5 million weighted shares outstanding.

我們將繼續仔細追蹤這些問題，並在進展過程中提供最新資訊。總的來說，我們預計 2024 年每股盈餘將在 24.45 美元至 24.85 美元之間，流通加權股約為 1.485 億股。

Moving to cash, we expect 2024 free cash flow between $2.25 billion and $2.65 billion consistent with our prior outlook. And as we've said before, capital expenditures are expected to remain elevated in 2024 before moderating in 2025 and beyond. Slide 11 in our earnings deck provides an update to our long-term free cash flow outlook to include 2026. We continue to expect our free cash flow to grow at a double-digit rate for several more years with additional growth in the second half of the decade.

轉向現金方面，我們預計 2024 年自由現金流在 22.5 億美元至 26.5 億美元之間，與我們先前的預期一致。正如我們之前所說，資本支出預計將在 2024 年保持在較高水平，然後在 2025 年及以後放緩。我們收益表中的幻燈片 11 更新了我們的長期自由現金流前景，其中包括 2026 年。我們繼續預計我們的自由現金流將在未來幾年以兩位數的速度增長，下半年將進一步增長。十年。

This expansion will be driven by sustained growth in our business, generating strong operating margin volume and converting those profits into cash. Meanwhile, lower cash taxes, higher CAS recoveries and lower levels of capital spending in the coming years provide additional structural levers to expand our cash flows at a rapid rate. Importantly, these ranges also include the latest estimated cash impacts associated with the B-21 charge. We expect roughly 60% of the charge to affect cash flows through 2026 with the remainder in the following years.

這種擴張將由我們業務的持續成長所推動，產生強勁的營業利潤率並將這些利潤轉化為現金。同時，未來幾年較低的現金稅、較高的CAS回收率和較低的資本支出水準為快速擴大我們的現金流量提供了額外的結構性槓桿。重要的是，這些範圍還包括與 B-21 費用相關的最新估計現金影響。我們預計約 60% 的費用將影響 2026 年的現金流，其餘費用將在接下來的幾年內影響。

Longer term, we are confident we'll be able to continue to absorb the cash headwinds from B-21 while delivering excellent free cash flows in 2027 and beyond.

從長遠來看，我們有信心能夠繼續吸收 B-21 帶來的現金阻力，同時在 2027 年及以後提供出色的自由現金流。

In closing, I want to thank the entire Northrop Grumman team for their contributions to another great year. The strength of our portfolio and visibility of franchise programs provides us the opportunity to deliver and deploy robust cash flows as we execute on our strategy. And with that, let's open up the call to Q&A.

最後，我要感謝諾斯羅普格魯曼公司的整個團隊為另一個偉大的一年所做的貢獻。我們的投資組合實力和特許經營計劃的知名度為我們提供了在執行策略時提供和部署強勁現金流的機會。接下來，讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Kathy, on the B-21, you've been very clear about the pressures on this program. Ultimately, how much relief did the customer extend to you to offset macro pressures and LRIP portion. And is there still a possibility of future relief?

凱西，在 B-21 上，您非常清楚該計劃面臨的壓力。最終，客戶為您提供了多少救濟來抵消宏觀壓力和 LRIP 部分。未來還有緩解的可能嗎？

So Kristine, we've been working with the customer. And as we noted, those conversations continue. And last year, in 2023, we and the Air Force disclosed that about $60 million of $1.5 billion that Congress appropriated for inflation was allocated to the advanced procurement for Lot 1 on this program. But we have yet to work through what that relief may be in future lots. We have, of course, as we said, updated our assumptions and through conversation and the tight budget environment, we've actually lowered the expectations for inflation relief. And so at this point, our focus is on executing this program and finding opportunities in the performance on the program while we continue to work with the government to see if there is any inflation relief opportunity.

克里斯汀，我們一直在與客戶合作。正如我們所指出的，這些對話仍在繼續。去年，即 2023 年，我們和空軍披露，國會為通貨膨脹撥款的 15 億美元中約有 6000 萬美元分配給了該計劃第 1 批的提前採購。但我們還沒有解決未來可能出現的問題。當然，正如我們所說，我們更新了我們的假設，透過對話和緊張的預算環境，我們實際上降低了通膨緩解的預期。因此，目前我們的重點是執行該計劃並在該計劃的執行中尋找機會，同時我們繼續與政府合作，看看是否有任何緩解通膨的機會。

Our next question comes from Richard Safran with Seaport Global, you may proceed.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Richard Safran，您可以繼續。

So I know you're going to get a lot of questions on the B-21, but I thought I'd ask you about -- just to expand on your opening remarks about Sentinel. I thought you might talk a bit more about the actions you're taking at the program back on track. How are you seeing risk on the program right now? And I guess, importantly, what you think the government's level of support for the program is given all the headlines and what we've been seeing?

所以我知道你會收到很多關於 B-21 的問題，但我想我應該問你一些關於「哨兵」的開場白。我想你可以多談談你在專案重回正軌時所採取的行動。您現在如何看待該計劃的風險？我想，重要的是，您認為在所有頭條新聞和我們所看到的情況下，政府對該計劃的支持程度如何？

Yes. Thanks, Rich. So as the land-based leg of the nuclear triad, Sentinel is a top priority for the Department of Defense. The requirement for the program has been validated numerous times by multiple administrations, and we expect that to be the outcome of this latest review. .

是的。謝謝，里奇。因此，作為三位一體核武力量的陸基部分，「哨兵」是國防部的首要任務。該計劃的要求已被多個主管部門多次驗證，我們預計這將是最新審查的結果。 。

As the Air Force is reported, the Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breach on the program is largely due to cost growth in the military construction and procurement segments of the program, and we and the industry team are currently executing on the cost plus EMD phase of the program. That's important because our design work in this phase is helping the Air Force to better estimate the costs of those later phases and due to a number of factors of learning their cost estimates for these later phases have increased, and that's what's driving the Nunn-McCurdy Breach as the Air Force has said, growth on the EMD would not have triggered the breach.

As the Air Force is reported, the Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breach on the program is largely due to cost growth in the military construction and procurement segments of the program, and we and the industry team are currently executing on the cost plus EMD phase of the程式.這很重要，因為我們在這一階段的設計工作正在幫助空軍更好地估計這些後續階段的成本，並且由於了解了許多因素，他們對這些後續階段的成本估算有所增加，這就是推動納恩-麥科迪計畫的原因正如空軍所說，EMD 的成長不會引發違規。

I'll also note that their update captures the inflation since 2020, the last time they did a cost estimate. And we all know that there's been significantly higher inflation than what was assumed at that time. So some of that is what you're also seeing reflected in these latest cost estimates. I mean with that said, though, you asked about our performance on the program, and I'm really pleased to report on the progress that our team has made over the last 3 years while we've been executing on the EMD phase. We've onboarded thousands of engineers. We've matured the system design. We've produced and tested critical hardware in the missile system, as I've outlined earlier on the call.

我還要指出的是，他們的更新反映了自 2020 年以來的通貨膨脹情況，這是他們上次進行成本估算時的情況。我們都知道，通貨膨脹率明顯高於當時的假設。因此，您在這些最新的成本估算中也看到了其中的一些內容。我的意思是，儘管如此，您詢問了我們在該計劃上的表現，我真的很高興報告我們的團隊在過去 3 年中在執行 EMD 階段時所取得的進展。我們已經招募了數千名工程師。我們已經成熟的系統設計。正如我之前在電話會議中概述的那樣，我們已經生產並測試了飛彈系統中的關鍵硬體。

We've also engaged in risk reduction, which is helping to inform the Air Force launch facility modernization and we've done all this while also doing detailed planning for the future phase of the program. I, myself, have visited the missile fields actually, I was at one last Friday, which is part of why I've got this cold, I brought back. And I met with the airmen, who have committed themselves to this important mission. So we're all in. We know how important this is, our team is partnering closely with the Air Force, and we're going to help them to deliver this essential capability for our nation.

我們也致力於降低風險，這有助於為空軍發射設施現代化提供信息，我們在完成所有這些工作的同時，也為該計劃的未來階段進行了詳細規劃。我自己實際上參觀過導彈發射場，上週五我就參觀過，這就是我帶回來的感冒的部分原因。我會見了致力於這項重要使命的飛行員。所以我們全力以赴。我們知道這有多重要，我們的團隊正在與空軍密切合作，我們將幫助他們為我們的國家提供這項基本能力。

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

So maybe just jumping back to B-21. Charges like there's some programs have a tendency to accumulate over time. They don't tend to go the other way. How should we think about it as we go forward? I mean, this is what for the first 5 LRIPs, how many LRIPs could there be? And how do we think about the bounds on this? And then maybe one last thing. Is the program NPV positive and if it is, when does it actually become NPV positive, cash flow positive, so on and so forth. If you could just peel back the onion on the program.

所以也許只是跳回 B-21。有些程序的費用會隨著時間的推移而累積。他們不傾向於走另一條路。我們在前進的過程中該如何思考？我的意思是，這就是前 5 個 LRIP，那麼可能有多少個 LRIP？我們如何看待這個界線？也許還有最後一件事。該計劃的 NPV 是否為正？如果是，它何時真正變為正 NPV、現金流量為正，等等。如果你能把程式上的洋蔥剝掉就好了。

Sure. I can go ahead and get started with that. And see if we can address a number of questions you raised. First of all, in terms of the future, we'll continue to update our projections every quarter as we do with all of our large programs. But it's important to note, we have a lot more information today than we did at this time last year, having completed the production in the ground test phase of the first aircraft.

當然。我可以繼續並開始這樣做。看看我們是否可以解決您提出的一些問題。首先，就未來而言，我們將繼續每季更新我們的預測，就像我們對所有大型專案所做的那樣。但值得注意的是，我們今天掌握的資訊比去年這個時候多得多，第一架飛機已經完成了地面測試階段的生產。

We also have the majority of the suppliers now under contract with the remaining in advanced stages of negotiations. We have our latest estimates for productivity and reasonable learning curves that we believe are appropriate based on our historical experience. Of course, we now have one lot under contract, and we'll finalize quantities of the next 4 lots over time as well. And the economy and inflationary factors have stabilized a bit over the past year, and we'll continue to track those, of course, over time as well. But perhaps most importantly, we're still performing well on this program, which is continuing to provide a critical capability for our customers.

我們也與大多數供應商簽訂了合同，其餘供應商正處於談判後期階段。我們對生產力和合理的學習曲線進行了最新的估計，我們認為這些曲線是基於我們的歷史經驗而合適的。當然，我們現在已經簽訂了一批合同，隨著時間的推移，我們也將最終確定接下來 4 批的數量。經濟和通膨因素在過去一年中已經有所穩定，當然，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續追蹤這些情況。但也許最重要的是，我們在該計劃上仍然表現良好，該計劃繼續為我們的客戶提供關鍵功能。

In terms of the long-term NPV, we think that's the most important thing is that our customers will get great value from the aircraft. We'll deliver them over time, and that should, over time, also lead to value for the company and our shareholders.

就長期淨現值而言，我們認為最重要的是我們的客戶將從飛機中獲得巨大的價值。我們將隨著時間的推移交付它們，隨著時間的推移，這也應該為公司和我們的股東帶來價值。

Our next question comes from Douglas Harned with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自道格拉斯·哈尼德和伯恩斯坦。

I wanted to go back to the Sentinel program. And when -- what you've described is that I think because that EMD is going well. But when you look at where this is headed and what came out with the Air Force commentary on the Nunn-McCurdy Breach. A couple of things that I wanted to understand better. They're talking about potentially a 2-year delay in IOC, they're also -- also you talked about it a little bit, but to understand how much of this breach is due to potential changes in requirements and things that are, in a sense, under your purview versus those that may be under others, including the government customer?

我想回到哨兵計劃。我認為，您所描述的情況是因為 EMD 進展順利。但當你看看事情的發展方向以及空軍對納恩-麥科迪違規事件的評論時就會發現。我想更好地理解一些事情。他們正在談論 IOC 可能延遲 2 年，你也談到了一點，但要了解這種違規行為有多少是由於需求和事物的潛在變化造成的，從某種意義上說，在你的職權範圍內與可能在其他人（包括政府客戶）職權範圍內的人比較？

Yes. So as you note, there is a delay to IOC, the reason though for the Nunn McCurdy Breach is the cost growth. So oftentimes scheduled delays add costs to the program, that is not the primary contributor. It is, as you noted, design decisions, particularly related to the command and launch requirements that the Air Force has and that affects the deployment in the launch facilities in each of the missile silos. And so that is what we are working to inform the Air Force decision process on alternatives and ways to reduce those costs and procurement and yet those are Air Force cost estimates, and they include a significant amount of scope that is outside of the industry team's execution. But nonetheless, we will help to inform those discussions if they're ongoing during this review process.

是的。正如您所指出的，IOC 有所延遲，但納恩·麥柯迪違規事件的原因是成本增長。因此，預定的延誤常常會增加專案的成本，但這並不是主要因素。正如您所指出的，這是設計決策，特別是與空軍的指揮和發射要求相關的設計決策，並且影響每個飛彈發射井的發射設施的部署。這就是我們正在努力向空軍決策過程提供有關替代方案以及降低這些成本和採購的方法的信息，但這些都是空軍成本估算，其中包括工業團隊執行之外的大量範圍。但儘管如此，如果這些討論在此審查過程中正在進行，我們將幫助告知這些討論。

And does the delay in the timing, does this have much effect right now on your outlook for the overall profitability of the program.

時間上的延遲是否會對您對該計劃的整體盈利能力的前景產生很大影響？

It does not, Doug, our near-term assumptions on both the ramp of the program relative to sales as well as the profitability of the program are not materially impacted.

道格，事實並非如此，我們對該計劃相對於銷售額的增長以及該計劃的盈利能力的近期假設並未受到重大影響。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Kathy or Dave, maybe if you could just talk about the free cash flow guidance that you're sticking with the 15% CAGR. Just the drivers in terms of top line working capital, Section 174, and the impact of B-21, Dave, I think you said 60% of that or $600 million is through '26. Is that right? And do we think about Sentinel as a positive cash contributor?

凱西或戴夫，也許你們能談談你們堅持 15% 複合年增長率的自由現金流指引。就頂線營運資金、第 174 條以及 B-21 的影響而言，戴夫，我想你說過其中 60% 或 6 億美元是透過 26 年實現的。是對的嗎？我們是否認為 Sentinel 是積極的現金貢獻者？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Sheila. I'm happy to dig into that. The strength of the free cash flow outlook we really think of as one of the highlights of our report today. And so happy to dig into that in more detail. And I think you heard correctly that 60% of the charge is associated with the period through 2026 from a cash flow perspective. I think importantly, the strength of the broad base of other programs across the business is serving to offset those pressures. And that's what we're seeing in our ability to maintain and build confidence in our multiyear outlook including adding a strong 2026 year to that outlook that continues the double-digit growth trajectory that we expect for the next several years.

當然。謝謝你的提問，希拉。我很高興深入研究這一點。我們確實認為自由現金流前景的強勁是我們今天報告的亮點之一。很高興能更詳細地研究這一點。我認為您沒聽錯，從現金流角度來看，60% 的費用與 2026 年之前的期間相關。我認為重要的是，整個企業其他計劃的廣泛基礎的力量正在抵消這些壓力。這就是我們所看到的，我們有能力維持和建立對多年前景的信心，包括在 2026 年的前景中添加強勁的前景，從而繼續我們預計未來幾年的兩位數增長軌跡。

We had a great finish to 2023 for free cash flow, really strong working capital performance, and that is enabling us to build confidence in our ability to continue to perform at similar levels going forward. As a company, we've put a lot of focus on working capital efficiency, on capital efficiency, on driving cash returns on recent investments and that is clearly showing up in the results and the performance of all of our sectors. We're proud of their performance on cash in Q4 and in the outlooks for '24 and beyond. And the net effect of all of these factors is that unchanged free cash flow outlook for '24 and '25, along with a strong '26.

到 2023 年，我們的自由現金流和營運資本表現都非常出色，這使我們對未來繼續保持類似水準的績效能力充滿信心。作為一家公司，我們非常關注營運資本效率、資本效率以及推動近期投資的現金回報，這清楚地體現在我們所有部門的業績和績效中。我們對他們第四季的現金表現以及 24 年及以後的前景感到自豪。所有這些因素的淨影響是，'24 和 '25 的自由現金流前景保持不變，以及強勁的 '26。

I'd highlight in terms of what drives that going forward? What's the underlying force as you point out. Certainly, the operations of the business growth in the top line is, first and foremost, with an opportunity for growth at the margin rate line as well that leads to really strong margin dollar volume, which will convert into cash through the strong working capital performance that we expect to continue which is essentially a stable assumption in our outlook. We're not looking for significant additional efficiencies given just how strong we were at the end of 2023.

我想強調一下是什麼推動了這個進程？正如您所指出的，潛在的力量是什麼？當然，營業收入成長的營運首先是保證金率線的成長機會，這會帶來真正強勁的保證金金額，這將透過強勁的營運資本表現轉化為現金我們預計這種情況會繼續下去，這本質上是我們前景中的一個穩定假設。鑑於我們在 2023 年底的實力，我們並不尋求顯著的額外效率。

And then as we noted earlier, there are other structural factors that should help as well with CAS pension reimbursement growing slightly over the next few years and cash tax is projected to decline over that same period. So essentially, all of those factors will lead to strong -- strong free cash flow growth outlook for the next several years and beyond.

正如我們之前指出的，還有其他結構性因素也應該有助於 CAS 退休金報銷在未來幾年略有增長，而現金稅預計在同一時期下降。因此，從本質上講，所有這些因素都將帶來未來幾年及以後強勁的自由現金流成長前景。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess a 2-part question about B-21. First was the $143 million EAC in the quarter, is that the extent of the entire anticipated loss on lot 1 and I guess, how do we think about the progression of losses on the various lots? And then second, the fact that this charge includes lots that will be in budgets in 2026 and 2027 and not come under contract for a while and not be worked on for a while. I guess how would you assess the opportunity to maybe ultimately do a little bit better than anticipated here.

我猜想關於 B-21 的問題分為兩部分。首先是本季 1.43 億美元的 EAC，這是第 1 批的全部預期損失的程度，我想，我們如何考慮各個批次的損失進展？其次，這筆費用包括將在 2026 年和 2027 年預算中、暫時未簽訂合約且暫時未進行施工的地塊。我想你會如何評估最終可能比預期做得更好一點的機會。

Sure. I can start on that, Seth. I think you've read properly into the $143 million EAC adjustment with Lot 1 having been awarded and the others not yet awarded, that one does take the form of an EAC adjustment. So that $143 million is the lot 1 amount we are currently projecting. And the future progression while we can't get into much detail because that would involve a lot sizes and quantities and other classified details. Clearly, the implication is that there's modest growth from lot 1 to future lots on average.

當然。我可以開始了，賽斯。我認為您已經正確了解 1.43 億美元的 EAC 調整，其中第 1 批已經授予，其他尚未授予，其中一個確實採取了 EAC 調整的形式。因此，1.43 億美元是我們目前預計的第一批金額。未來的進展雖然我們無法透露太多細節，因為這將涉及大量尺寸和數量以及其他機密細節。顯然，這意味著從第 1 批到未來批次的平均成長率略有成長。

Over time, I think you're thinking of this the right way that our current projections would indicate an average of a couple of hundred million dollars a year of after-tax impact on our -- on the cash line from B-21, and that's, as I referred to a few minutes ago, the headwind we've been able to mitigate through strength in the rest of the business. In terms of your point about opportunity to outperform that over the long term. Clearly, it is a core focus of our team to continue to drive efficiencies in the learning curves, successful outcomes of our negotiations with suppliers. We continue to engage and partner with our customer to understand macroeconomic impacts on the program and address opportunities for funding of relief, as Kathy mentioned earlier.

隨著時間的推移，我認為你會以正確的方式思考這個問題，我們目前的預測將表明，B-21 的現金額度每年平均會產生幾億美元的稅後影響，以及正如我幾分鐘前提到的，我們已經能夠透過其他業務的實力來緩解逆風。就您關於長期超越的機會的觀點而言。顯然，我們團隊的核心關注點是繼續提高學習曲線的效率以及與供應商談判的成功結果。正如凱西之前提到的，我們將繼續與客戶合作，了解宏觀經濟對該計畫的影響，並尋找救濟資金的機會。

And so we'll continue to address all of those opportunities. This is something we'll update you in the rest of the Street on over time.

因此，我們將繼續抓住所有這些機會。隨著時間的推移，我們將在華爾街的其他地方向您通報這一最新情況。

Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 TD Cowen。

So anyway, so you had the loss on the B-21 kind of it didn't look like a loss couple of quarters ago. You've had your second loss on HALO. This is clearly proving to be an environment where on fixed price contract, there is more risk. Have you changed your strategy regarding how you bid and specifically with reference to Tranche 2 of the tracking satellites because you were on Tranche 1 and you were not on Tranche 2. So have you changed your strategy in terms of how you're bidding? And are there any contracts that you bid before changing your strategy that would still have risk that we're not aware of today?

所以無論如何，B-21 的損失看起來不像幾個季度前的損失。你已經在光環上第二次失利了。這顯然證明了在固定價格合約上存在更多風險的環境。您是否改變了關於出價方式的策略，特別是參考追蹤衛星的第 2 部分，因為您在第 1 部分，而不是第 2 部分。那麼，您是否在出價方式方面改變了策略？您在改變策略之前投標的合約是否仍然存在我們今天沒有意識到的風險？

Very insightful question as always, Cai. So when you look back to 2015, when we did B-21, we certainly have changed our view on bidding of contracts where did not have a mature design. It's a point of bid and yet we committed to fixed price options into the future. And we have, to my knowledge, not done that again. And we have passed on some high-profile programs as a result of the risk balance that the customer put forward in the RFP not meeting our standards.

蔡，一如既往地提出了非常有見地的問題。所以當你回顧2015年，當我們做B-21時，我們肯定改變了對沒有成熟設計的合約招標的看法。這是一個出價點，但我們承諾未來採用固定價格選擇。據我所知，我們沒有再這樣做過。由於客戶在 RFP 中提出的風險平衡不符合我們的標準，我們已經放棄了一些備受矚目的計劃。

We have programs like HALO, which we have certainly learned some additional lessons and are applying those as we move forward. And you note on some very recent bids, we have taken a different approach in looking it firm fixed price, where we've either declined a bit if the customer chose to go fixed price or we've offered a price in the case of SDA Tranche 2 that we thought was fair and reasonable and the customer decided not to further negotiate with us. These are things that are going to happen and we're going to remain disciplined. We have plenty of opportunity in this company to grow. We have a strong pipeline of opportunities we're pursuing. And a strong pipeline of opportunities that we believe have the right risk/reward balance with industry.

我們有像 HALO 這樣的項目，我們當然學到了一些額外的經驗教訓，並在前進過程中應用這些經驗教訓。您注意到，在最近的一些出價中，我們採取了不同的方法來確定固定價格，如果客戶選擇固定價格，我們會稍微拒絕，或者我們會在 SDA 的情況下提供價格第二期我們認為公平合理，客戶決定不再與我們進一步協商。這些事情將會發生，我們將保持紀律。我們在這家公司有很多成長的機會。我們擁有大量正在尋求的機會。我們相信，我們相信與行業具有正確的風險/回報平衡的強大機會管道。

Our next question comes from Gavin Parsons with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯。

Maybe just following on Ron's question. Does the B-21 charge contemplate current conditions as they are? Does it have some consideration for future uncertainty in macro or supply chain?

也許只是跟著羅恩的問題。 B-21 的衝鋒是否考慮了目前的情況？是否對未來宏觀或供應鏈的不確定性有所考慮？

With all of our EACs, B-21 included, we do our best based on what we know today to project conditions out into the future. Now with that said, that's difficult to do a longer term that period of performance is. So in this case, we're looking out over greater than 5 years. So as we get into those out years, that's a bit more speculative, but we do incorporate our expectations for changes in everything from material, labor pricing to productivity and learning.

對於我們所有的 EAC（包括 B-21），我們會根據目前所知盡最大努力預測未來的情況。話雖如此，要實現長期的績效是很困難的。因此，在這種情況下，我們將展望 5 年以上的情況。因此，當我們進入這些年時，這有點更具推測性，但我們確實結合了我們對從材料、勞動力定價到生產力和學習等各方面變化的期望。

Okay. Understood. And Dave, you mentioned the IRS appeal process. Any way to put a range around the possible cash impact on that?

好的。明白了。戴夫，你提到了國稅局的上訴程序。有什麼辦法可以確定可能的現金影響範圍嗎？

No, I'd refer you to our tax disclosures for more than enough detail on all of those fronts. It's tough to put a range around those things. We're looking forward to getting through processes, as you know, from those disclosures, we have a lot of open years that have yet to be resolved and looking forward to working with the IRS to come to reasonable resolutions there, and we'll update you on any book or tax differences from current reserves as we get there.

不，我建議您參閱我們的稅務揭露，以獲取有關所有這些方面的足夠詳細資訊。很難為這些事情設定一個範圍。如您所知，我們期待透過這些揭露的流程，我們還有很多尚未解決的開放年度，並期待與國稅局合作，達成合理的解決方案，我們將當我們到達那裡時，向您通報當前儲備金的任何帳面或稅收差異。

Our next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Dave, can you give us a sense for the proportion of supplier costs across the 5 LRIP lots that have now been fixed versus what's still open to negotiation?

Dave，您能否讓我們了解目前已確定的 5 個 LRIP 批次的供應商成本與仍需談判的成本所佔的比例？

Sure. As we noted a few moments ago, we're now at a majority of the supplier costs that have been fully negotiated across the LRIP phase. And we're in various stages of negotiation with suppliers for the remainder. So that's one area where we have learned more and progressed in our process compared to where we were a year ago or even a quarter ago.

當然。正如我們剛才指出的，我們現在的大部分供應商成本已在 LRIP 階段進行了充分協商。我們正處於與供應商就剩餘部分進行談判的各個階段。因此，與一年前甚至一個季度前相比，我們在這一領域學到了更多知識，並取得了更多進展。

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up, where does the commercial inventory come from in the Space business? And is that EBIT headwind mostly gone now? Or is there any more of that left to come in '24?

好的。偉大的。接下來，太空業務的商業庫存來自哪裡？息稅前利潤的逆風現在基本上已經消失了嗎？或者 24 年還會有更多這樣的事情發生嗎？

Sure. Thanks for the question. We had offsetting effects in 2024 and 2023, rather, including Q4 in the commercial elements of the Space business. As you know, those are much smaller than and kind of tangential to the core national security space business that we have. In the case of those commercial inventory write-downs, those were related to newer investments in product lines to address burgeoning market opportunity in both the government and commercial elements of the Space market. We did see some modest write-downs in various quarters in '23 associated with those. Those are the types of things you occasionally go through as you make such new investments.

當然。謝謝你的提問。我們在 2024 年和 2023 年產生了抵銷效應，更確切地說，包括太空業務商業元素中的第四季。如您所知，這些業務比我們擁有的核心國家安全太空業務小得多，而且有點不切實際。就這些商業庫存減記而言，這些減記與產品線的更新投資有關，以應對太空市場的政府和商業元素中新興的市場機會。我們確實在 23 年的各個季度看到了與這些相關的一些適度的減記。這些是您在進行此類新投資時偶爾會經歷的事情。

So again, not core to the current or future growth story of the space business.

再說一遍，這不是航太業務當前或未來成長故事的核心。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯·赫伯特。

Maybe, Kathy, at a high level, I wanted to follow up on your comments earlier regarding sort of the key margin drivers you outlined last year. Specifically more on the cost and productivity efforts and maybe on the mix side, are you seeing incrementally more opportunity now as we think about '24? And how should we think about sort of the absolute opportunity on those now into this year versus perhaps how much more of a benefit we see in '25 and beyond.

凱西，也許我想在較高層面上跟進您早些時候對您去年概述的關鍵利潤驅動因素的評論。特別是在成本和生產力方面，也許在混合方面，當我們考慮「24」時，您現在是否看到了越來越多的機會？我們應該如何考慮今年的絕對機會與我們在 25 年及以後看到的更多好處。

Thanks, Ken. We laid out 3 drivers, the first of which being stabilization in macroeconomics, and we are certainly seeing that in '24, which is why we see our margin rates this year in line with last with some opportunity for improvement as we go throughout the year. We layer on top of that cost and productivity actions that we are taking in the company, and that will provide some tailwinds in '24 growing tailwinds into '25. And the mix shift really is a bit of a longer-term proposition for us. We've talked about that being a shift from cost type to fixed price, where we expect 2023 was really our high watermark for cost type, but a very gradual shift in that mix to fixed price with more of it coming in the latter half of this decade.

謝謝，肯。我們列出了3 個驅動因素，其中第一個是宏觀經濟的穩定，我們肯定會在24 年看到這一點，這就是為什麼我們認為今年的保證金率與去年一致，並且全年都有一些改進的機會。我們在公司採取的成本和生產力行動的基礎上進行了分層，這將在 24 年到 25 年間提供一些推動力。對我們來說，混合轉變確實是一個更長期的提議。我們已經討論過從成本類型到固定價格的轉變，我們預計2023 年確實是我們成本類型的高水位線，但這種組合向固定價格的轉變是非常漸進的，更多的轉變將在2023 年下半年發生。這十年。

And then international mix is the other where we don't expect significant international growth in 2024, but we do expect that to step up based on our pipeline and particularly the strong weapons demand outside the U.S. in 2025. That gives you a sense of what will be a tailwind to margin rate win.

國際組合是另一個方面，我們預計2024 年不會出現顯著的國際成長，但我們確實預計，根據我們的管道，特別是2025 年美國以外的強勁武器需求，國際成長將會加快。這讓您了解什麼將成為保證金率獲勝的有利因素。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

I was wondering, Dave, or Kathy, you previously talked about a $4 billion free cash flow target in 2028, effectively doubling what you've done in '23. I just want to make sure that's still on the table, despite the charge absorption in that period of time? And then maybe, Kathy, on the margin expansion specific to Aerospace, is that still a 10% margin business? Or do we have to glide slope down a little bit further into '25, '26.

我想知道，戴夫或凱西，你們之前談到了 2028 年 40 億美元的自由現金流目標，實際上是你們在 23 年所做的事情的兩倍。我只是想確保儘管在那段時間吸收了電荷，但它仍然在桌面上？凱西，關於航空航天特定的利潤率擴張，這仍然是 10% 利潤率的業務嗎？或者我們是否必須進一步下滑到'25、'26。

Thanks for the question, Myles. Let me kick off with the 2023 free cash flow number. I appreciate the question on that because I think that too is core to the outlook going forward. Yes, we are reaffirming that $4 billion target for 2028. And essentially doubling the level that we were projecting at the midpoint of our 2023 guidance, which was $2 billion. Of course, we exceeded that by $100 million in our final result for 2023. The drivers of that growth are much of what we've talked about already. Certainly, growth in the top line. As Kathy just noted, some of the drivers of margin rate expansion opportunity which leads to margin dollars having an opportunity to exceed the growth rate of our top line through 2028.

謝謝你的提問，邁爾斯。讓我從 2023 年自由現金流數字開始。我很欣賞這個問題，因為我認為這也是未來前景的核心。是的，我們重申 2028 年 40 億美元的目標。基本上是我們在 2023 年指導中位數（20 億美元）預測水準的兩倍。當然，我們 2023 年的最終結果超出了這一數字 1 億美元。這種成長的驅動因素在很大程度上是我們已經討論過的。當然，收入的成長。正如 Kathy 剛剛指出的那樣，保證金率擴張機會的一些驅動因素導致保證金美元有機會在 2028 年之前超過我們的營收成長率。

And importantly, CapEx will moderate during that same period. So we've noted that '23 and '24 of these peak years of capital intensity that continues to be our outlook with declines in '25 and beyond. And then pension and tax will serve as tailwinds during that same period. So that leads you to the $4 billion number. And I think if you look at the '24 and '25 numbers we've reiterated for our free cash outlook today and add in that '26 range, you'll get to that same glide slope that would push you upward toward the $4 billion number by 2028. So those are the building blocks and the way we plan to get there.

重要的是，同期資本支出將會放緩。因此，我們注意到，「23 和 24 年資本密集度達到頂峰的年份」仍然是我們的預期，而「25 年及以後」將出現下降。然後退休金和稅收將在同一時期起到推動作用。這樣就得出了 40 億美元的數字。我認為，如果你看看我們今天重申的自由現金前景的“24”和“25”數字，並添加“26”範圍，你將達到相同的下滑趨勢，這將推動你向上邁向 40 億美元到2028 年，這些就是我們計劃實現這一目標的基石和方法。

And Myles, on AS margins, what we're seeing, as Dave noted earlier is that with the B-21 growth being a bit stronger than we had anticipated, AS is stepping up on top line. It is putting some pressure on margin rate, but margin dollars are exactly where we had anticipated they would be coming into 2024, and our guide therefore, remained consistent for AS on a dollar basis, even though we now are looking at more of a mid-9s rate projection.

邁爾斯，關於 AS 的利潤率，正如 Dave 之前指出的那樣，我們看到的是，隨著 B-21 的成長比我們預期的要強一些，AS 的收入正在上升。這給保證金率帶來了一些壓力，但保證金美元正是我們預期的 2024 年的水平，因此，我們的指南對 AS 以美元為基礎保持一致，儘管我們現在更多的是考慮中等水平-9s 速率預測。

As you go out over time, it's less dependent on what happens with absorbing that lower rate on B-21 and more what happens in terms of other new programs coming into the AS portfolio and the rate at which we will book those programs. So we'll provide you more insight into that over the coming year as we look towards 2025 and beyond.

隨著時間的推移，它不再依賴吸收 B-21 的較低利率所發生的情況，而更依賴進入 AS 投資組合的其他新項目以及我們預訂這些項目的利率。因此，當我們展望 2025 年及以後時，我們將在來年為您提供更多關於這一點的見解。

Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Kathy, a few minutes ago, you alluded to international and I wanted to bring up IBCS because it's had some strong demand signals from international customers and thought maybe you could dig into that program a little bit, give us a sense of how large it is in revenue or how -- in '23 or '24? And how big it might be, let's say, 5 years from now?

凱西，幾分鐘前，您提到了國際，我想提出 IBCS，因為它收到了來自國際客戶的強烈需求信號，並認為也許您可以深入研究該計劃，讓我們了解它有多大收入或如何- 23年或24 年？比如說，5年後它可能有多大？

It certainly is an area of strength in our portfolio. We've seen strong performance by the team on the U.S. Army program and also as we are deploying in Poland, and we see follow-on opportunities in Poland as a result. We've also, as I've spoken about throughout the course of 2023, added a number of additional countries who have expressed interest in the program to the pipeline, and that's what would drive the growth that we anticipate in the 2025 time frame.

這無疑是我們產品組合中的一個優勢領域。我們看到該團隊在美國陸軍計劃以及我們在波蘭的部署中表現出色，因此我們在波蘭看到了後續機會。正如我在 2023 年期間談到的那樣，我們還增加了一些對該計劃表示興趣的其他國家，這將推動我們預計在 2025 年時間範圍內的增長。

As you noted, I mentioned international demand. Part of that is weapons, part of that is the IBCS portfolio. And then, of course, we have some aircraft and mission system strength in the pipeline for international in 2025 as well. The program itself is growing at a fairly rapid rate, but off of a relatively small, it's about $400 million of annual sales. And so we expect that to grow, of course, but not a major contributor, is the enterprise line for growth.

正如你所指出的，我提到了國際需求。其中一部分是武器，一部分是 IBCS 產品組合。當然，我們也準備在 2025 年為國際航班提供一些飛機和任務系統實力。該計劃本身正在以相當快的速度增長，但規模相對較小，年銷售額約為 4 億美元。因此，我們預期企業的成長當然會成長，但不是主要貢獻者。

Our next question comes from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治‧夏皮羅。

Kathy, I wanted to ask on the charge for the B-21, what caused it to be bigger than the 0 to $1.2 billion range that you've kind of been reiterating since last year? And then just specifically, maybe the margin that you had said would be around 10% is now maybe 9.5%. I know you alluded to a few minutes ago, the B21 was growing faster. But it's got to grow a lot faster to drop the margin by 50 basis points. So I was just wondering if you could explore that a little bit more.

凱西，我想問 B-21 的費用，是什麼導致它的價格超出了您去年以來一直在重申的 0 到 12 億美元的範圍？然後具體來說，也許您所說的 10% 左右的利潤現在可能是 9.5%。我知道您幾分鐘前提到過，B21 的成長速度更快。但它必須成長得更快才能使利潤率下降 50 個基點。所以我只是想知道你是否可以進一步探索一下。

Let me start with the first part of your question and Dave will cover the second. As we noted, we identified this risk last year, and we, throughout the year, revisited it on a quarterly basis. There were two primary changes in the fourth quarter that both led us to deem it a probable loss as well as impacted the value of that loss.

讓我從你問題的第一部分開始，戴夫將討論第二部分。正如我們所指出的，我們去年就發現了這一風險，並且全年每季都會重新審視這一風險。第四季有兩個主要變化，這兩個變化都導致我們認為可能出現虧損，並影響了該虧損的價值。

First, we significantly reduced our projections for funding related to macroeconomic impacts, as we've talked about a couple of times already. Although we continue to partner with the government to address these impacts. We believe it's prudent in light of the current budget status to reduce those assumptions. And so we did that.

首先，我們大幅降低了與宏觀經濟影響相關的資金預測，正如我們已經討論過幾次的那樣。儘管我們繼續與政府合作來解決這些影響。我們認為，鑑於當前的預算狀況，減少這些假設是明智的。所以我們就這麼做了。

The second is we've experienced growth in our cost projection, both in the internal production costs as we've continued to build aircraft as Dave talked about through our negotiations with suppliers. We have learned and built that learning into the forward-looking estimates that we now have in the EAC, so those were the factors. As we've talked about, we did a very detailed look at this EAC in the fourth quarter and had matured and had actual data to reflect on that we did not have at an earlier point.

第二個是我們的成本預測有所增長，包括內部生產成本，因為我們繼續製造飛機，正如戴夫在與供應商的談判中所談到的。我們已經學習並將這種學習融入我們現在在東非共同體中的前瞻性估計中，所以這些就是因素。正如我們所討論的，我們在第四季度對該 EAC 進行了非常詳細的研究，並且已經成熟並擁有實際數據來反映我們之前沒有的數據。

Let me follow up on the second part of your question because I do think it's an important nuance. The AS business was operating in the mid-10 billions in scale over the past year, it exceeded our original expectations in sales in 2023 and now is projected to exceed them even more significantly compared to where they were a year ago in 2024. We were talking about a flat '23 and very modest growth in '24 based off of that mid-10slevel. And now we're all the way up into the low 11s. And so that low 11s at a mid-9% margin rate is the same as the mid- to high 10s at a slightly higher margin rate.

讓我跟進你問題的第二部分，因為我確實認為這是一個重要的細微差別。 AS業務在過去的一年中營運規模在100億左右，超出了我們最初對2023年銷售額的預期，現在預計2024年將比一年前更加顯著地超出。談論的是基於10 年代中期水平的23 年持平和24 年的非常溫和的成長。現在我們已經一路上升到低11了。因此，保證金率中等為 9% 的低 11 美元與保證金率稍高的中高 10 美元相同。

We're really focused on driving the dollar volume of operating margin in our Aeronautics business and across our business, it's that return on invested capital, the growth in margin dollars and in free cash flow that results from it, that is really our core focus.

我們真正專注於提高航空業務和整個業務的營業利潤率，投資資本回報率、利潤率成長以及由此產生的自由現金流，才是我們的核心關注點。

Josh, we have time for one more question.

喬希，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question comes from Jason Gursky with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Dave, just a clarification question for you to start. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that there were some shifting priorities from the government and the Space business that was leading to a deceleration in growth. I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color on what those shifting priorities might be? And then Kathy, I just wanted you to provide, you may be a bit of an open-ended question to kind of wrap all this together here. Just broadly talk about all the risks and opportunities that you see in front of you on the execution side of things.

戴夫，我想先向您提出一個澄清問題。您在準備好的發言中提到，政府和航太企業的優先事項發生了一些變化，導致成長減速。我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於這些變化的優先事項可能是什麼的資訊？然後凱西，我只是想讓你提供，你可能是一個開放式問題，可以將所有這些都概括在這裡。只需廣泛談論您在執行方面看到的所有風險和機會。

You've obviously got record backlog here and we know about the B-21 risk. But I'm wondering if you could just maybe highlight and wrap this all together, do we have a balanced risk and opportunities portfolio here, we a little bit more overweight risk than we are opportunity? And maybe just kind of dive into a little bit of the details of what you're seeing and maybe what you're all doing to address those issues.

顯然，你們這裡的積壓量創歷史新高，而且我們知道 B-21 的風險。但我想知道你是否可以強調並概括這一切，我們這裡是否有一個平衡的風險和機會投資組合，我們的風險比機會更重一些？也許只是深入了解您所看到的內容的一些細節，以及您正在採取的措施來解決這些問題。

Sure. Great questions, Jason. Let me go ahead and start with your original question on the National Security Space portfolio. As we mentioned, our guidance captures growth and declines in various programs across all of our portfolios, very much including Space. In the case of Space, as we've noted, there are some shifts in budget priorities. A lot of our customers are having to address budget prioritization, particularly as it relates to 2025 and beyond.

當然。很好的問題，傑森。讓我繼續從你最初關於國家安全太空投資組合的問題開始。正如我們所提到的，我們的指導反映了我們所有投資組合中各種項目的成長和下降，其中非常包括太空項目。就太空而言，正如我們所指出的，預算優先事項發生了一些變化。我們的許多客戶都必須解決預算優先順序問題，特別是與 2025 年及以後相關的預算優先順序。

With that said, in this particular case, given that it's in the restricted domain, there's not much more we can say about the mission or the program or anything like that. What's important there is that our space sector, and therefore, company guidance accounts for our latest understanding of all the programs in that portfolio and the likely path forward for them. And I think when you look at the space guidance, you see a lot of value creation as they continue to grow the top line. And in this case, now grow margin rates alongside that with lower capital intensity starting in '25, in particular, you see a lot of improvement in returns on invested capital in the space business, given how much growth they've built in their foundation over the last few years. Kathy?

話雖如此，在這種特殊情況下，鑑於它處於受限制的領域，我們無法對任務或計劃或類似的事情說太多。重要的是，我們的航太部門以及公司的指導說明了我們對該投資組合中所有項目的最新理解以及它們可能的前進道路。我認為，當你查看空間指南時，你會看到隨著收入的不斷增長，他們創造了很多價值。在這種情況下，現在利潤率隨著從25 年開始較低的資本密集度而提高，特別是考慮到他們在基礎上建立的增長量，你會看到太空業務的投資資本回報率有了很大的提高在過去幾年間。凱西？

And Jason, I really appreciate the question. I wish I had another hour to discuss it with you, but being respectful of everybody's time, let me just simply say that I see our portfolio and the set of opportunities and risks we have as balanced and consistent with what I have seen in recent years since I stepped into this role. We have a team who has stepped up and provided top line growth, which I believe is industry leading at about 5% on a compound annual basis through each of the last 4 years. We're projecting that again this year. We see the opportunity space is rich, both domestically and internationally. And to the risks that we have in executing this portfolio, while the pandemic certainly made that more challenging for the last couple of years. We're turning the corner.

傑森，我真的很感激這個問題。我希望再有一個小時的時間與您討論這個問題，但為了尊重每個人的時間，我只是簡單地說，我認為我們的投資組合以及我們擁有的一系列機會和風險與我近年來所看到的情況是平衡且一致的自從我踏入這個角色。我們擁有一支不斷進步並提供營收成長的團隊，我相信過去 4 年每年的複合年增長率約為 5%，處於行業領先地位。我們今年再次預測這一點。我們看到國內和國際上的機會空間都很豐富。以及我們在執行該投資組合時面臨的風險，而大流行無疑使過去幾年更具挑戰性。我們正在轉彎。

Our overall program performance has not been stronger since I've been at the company, and that's 15 years and going. So I really feel good about how this team is positioned. We now have fully disclosed and taken into the P&L, the B-21 risk, which we've been talking about and feel confident that we can now go execute this program. And I am proud of what the team collectively has accomplished across 2023 and look forward to the outlook we have in place for 2024.

自從我加入公司以來，我們的整體計劃績效從未如此強勁，而且已經過去 15 年了。所以我對這支球隊的定位真的感覺很好。我們現在已經完全披露並考慮了損益表、B-21 風險，我們一直在談論這個風險，並且我們有信心現在可以執行該計劃。我對團隊在 2023 年共同取得的成就感到自豪，並期待我們 2024 年的前景。

So with that, I just want to again thank my colleagues at Northrop Grumman for their dedication, both to our country and our company. I also want to thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with you on our next earnings call in April. So Josh, that concludes the call. Thank you.

因此，我想再次感謝諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的同事對我們國家和公司的奉獻。我還要感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在四月的下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。喬許，電話會議到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。