諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's second quarter conference call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions).

美好的一天，女士們先生們，歡迎參加諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司第二季度電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。我叫喬什，今天我將成為您的接線員。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

現在我想將電話轉給東道主投資者關係副總裁托德·恩斯特 (Todd Ernst) 先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. We will refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted to the IR website on the call this morning.

謝謝喬希，早上好，歡迎參加諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2023 年第二季度電話會議。我們將在今天早上的電話會議上參考發佈在 IR 網站上的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。

Before we get started, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2023 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議討論的事項，包括 2023 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可獲得的信息做出的判斷。它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司實際業績出現重大差異。

Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.

今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益發布中的 GAAP 業績相一致的非 GAAP 財務指標。

And on today's call are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO.

出席今天電話會議的有我們的董事長、首席執行官兼總裁凱西·沃登 (Kathy Warden)；以及我們的首席財務官戴夫·凱弗 (Dave Keffer)。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

這時，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. As you saw from this morning's earnings release, global demand for Northrop Grumman Solutions is driving exceptional growth. In the second quarter, our sales were up 9% with solid contributions from each of our 4 business segments. Our ability to hire and retain talent and improving supplier deliveries are strengthening our top line. Given our year-to-date sales increase of 7% and an improved outlook, we're increasing our full year sales guidance range by $400 million. In addition, award volume in the quarter was robust, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.14. As a result, we're increasing our full year book-to-bill projection to approximately 1.0.

謝謝，托德。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。正如您從今天早上的財報中看到的那樣，全球對諾斯羅普·格魯曼解決方案的需求正在推動非凡的增長。第二季度，我們的銷售額增長了 9%，這得益於我們 4 個業務部門的強勁貢獻。我們僱用和留住人才以及改善供應商交付的能力正在增強我們的營收。鑑於我們今年迄今的銷售額增長了 7% 且前景有所改善，我們將全年銷售指導範圍提高了 4 億美元。此外，本季度的獎勵量強勁，訂單出貨比為 1.14。因此，我們將全年訂單出貨比預測提高至 1.0 左右。

Our $79 billion backlog continues to be more than 2x our expected 2023 sales supporting our long-term growth outlook. We delivered solid second quarter earnings per share of $5.34, and we're increasing the lower end of our full year guidance range by $0.20. And free cash flow was healthy in the quarter, more than $1 billion higher than Q2 of last year, positioning us well for our full year target.

我們 790 億美元的積壓訂單仍然是 2023 年預期銷售額的兩倍以上，支持了我們的長期增長前景。第二季度我們實現了穩定的每股收益 5.34 美元，並將全年指導範圍的下限上調了 0.20 美元。本季度自由現金流狀況良好，比去年第二季度高出 10 億美元以上，這使我們能夠很好地實現全年目標。

Turning to the budget environment and starting with the U.S. We're encouraged by the continued bipartisan support for national security funding to implement the administration's National Defense strategy. The FY '24 budget and recent congressional committee bills prioritize modernization, including areas of strength in our portfolio such as the Triad, the Space domain, information superiority and advanced weapons. We also anticipate continued support for Ukraine and related emergency spending, which would represent even further increased demand.

轉向預算環境，從美國開始。兩黨持續支持國家安全資金以實施政府的國防戰略，這讓我們感到鼓舞。 24 財年預算和最近的國會委員會法案優先考慮現代化，包括我們投資組合中的優勢領域，如三位一體、太空領域、信息優勢和先進武器。我們還預計將繼續為烏克蘭和相關緊急支出提供支持，這將意味著需求進一步增加。

Global demand for our products also continues to grow as our allies increased defense spending to address evolving threats. We are well positioned in multiple markets to meet this demand with programs such as AARGM, IBCS and E-2D as well as munitions. With a robust backlog and continued growth outlook, I'd like to now spend a few minutes outlining our path to margin expansion, which is a key element of our earnings and cash flow growth plans.

隨著我們的盟友增加國防開支以應對不斷變化的威脅，全球對我們產品的需求也在持續增長。我們在多個市場中處於有利地位，可以通過 AARGM、IBCS 和 E-2D 以及彈藥等項目來滿足這一需求。憑藉強勁的積壓和持續的增長前景，我現在想花幾分鐘概述一下我們的利潤擴張之路，這是我們盈利和現金流增長計劃的關鍵要素。

Our 2023 operating margin dollar guidance is in the range we've previously provided. This guidance implies a segment margin rate in the mid-11% range in the second half of 2023, having delivered a rate of 10.9% in the first half. We also see an opportunity to increase our year-over-year margin rate in 2024 and get to a 12% target in the longer term. Achieving this margin improvement is built on 3 key drivers: First is the stabilization of temporal macroeconomic factors that have driven higher cost and impacted our supply chain and labor efficiency. Second is the ongoing implementation of cost management programs across the company that help drive affordability, competitiveness and performance. And third is our business mix, which we see shifting to more international and production contracts as international demand grows and many of our current development programs mature over the next several years.

我們的 2023 年營業利潤率指引處於我們之前提供的範圍內。該指引意味著 2023 年下半年的分部利潤率將在 11% 左右，而上半年的利潤率為 10.9%。我們還看到了在 2024 年提高同比利潤率的機會，並在長期內實現 12% 的目標。實現利潤率的提高基於三個關鍵驅動因素：首先是暫時宏觀經濟因素的穩定，這些因素導致了成本上升並影響了我們的供應鍊和勞動力效率。其次是在整個公司範圍內持續實施成本管理計劃，以幫助提高可承受性、競爭力和績效。第三是我們的業務組合，隨著國際需求的增長以及我們當前的許多開發計劃在未來幾年的成熟，我們看到業務組合將轉向更多的國際和生產合同。

With regard to the macroeconomic factors, supply chain disruptions rooted in the pandemic and the subsequent labor market tightness have created program delays and cost growth. To reduce this disruption, we're buying ahead of schedule, pursuing second sources where it makes sense and placing more of our people as suppliers to facilitate timely material deliveries. We see signs of progress across our supply chain from these actions, and we are seeing fewer new issues emerge.

就宏觀經濟因素而言，疫情造成的供應鏈中斷以及隨之而來的勞動力市場緊張造成了計劃延遲和成本增長。為了減少這種干擾，我們提前採購，在有意義的情況下尋找第二來源，並安排更多的員工作為供應商，以促進及時的材料交付。我們從這些行動中看到了整個供應鏈取得進展的跡象，而且新問題的出現​​也越來越少。

We've had exceptional performance in growing our head count since the second half of 2022 and attrition rates are down to pre-pandemic levels. Our focus now is on optimizing labor efficiency, which is an important driver of profitability. To accelerate the learning curve for our employees, we're leaning forward with innovative training programs and standardizing work instructions.

自 2022 年下半年以來，我們在員工人數增長方面表現出色，員工流失率已降至大流行前的水平。我們現在的重點是優化勞動力效率，這是盈利能力的重要驅動力。為了加快員工的學習曲線，我們正在推進創新培訓計劃和標準化工作指導。

Inflation has been a challenge for our industry as well as others.

通貨膨脹對我們的行業以及其他行業來說都是一個挑戰。

Cost growth has now begun to moderate, but the last 18 months of inflation continued to have a higher base effect on our costs, especially in labor. If you look at our year-end 2021 fixed-price backlog, it was largely priced before we began to experience elevated levels of inflation. However, of that backlog, approximately 70% will have been converted into sales by the end of this year. And for new bids, we are factoring higher inflation expectations into our contracts. We're also working to drive additional discipline in our bid approaches, particularly on fixed price contracts to help protect against these types of dynamics in the future.

成本增長現已開始放緩，但過去 18 個月的通脹繼續對我們的成本產生較高的基數影響，尤其是勞動力成本。如果你看看我們 2021 年年底的固定價格積壓訂單，就會發現它基本上是在我們開始經歷通脹水平升高之前定價的。然而，到今年年底，積壓訂單中大約 70% 將轉化為銷售額。對於新的投標，我們將更高的通脹預期納入我們的合同中。我們還致力於在投標方法中推行更多紀律，特別是在固定價格合同方面，以幫助防止未來出現此類動態。

Overall, we anticipate that these macroeconomic impacts have stabilized and now have largely been incorporated into our margins or risk factors.

總體而言，我們預計這些宏觀經濟影響已經穩定，並且現在已很大程度上納入我們的利潤或風險因素中。

The second key driver of margin opportunity is cost management, which benefits both affordability and competitiveness. We are laser focused on overhead cost reduction. A foundational element of these reductions is our implementation of digital solutions across our business, which will help to drive performance and productivity. For example, we've built a digital ecosystem that focuses on program execution, bringing together employees, customers and partners into an integrated environment so they can seamlessly work together. This accelerates design, integration, testing and deployment across programs, helping us to deliver with quality, speed and efficiency. We're increasing the number of programs that are operating in this ecosystem. And today, we have over 100 active programs that are doing so.

利潤機會的第二個關鍵驅動因素是成本管理，這有利於承受能力和競爭力。我們專注於降低管理成本。這些減少的一個基本要素是我們在整個業務中實施數字解決方案，這將有助於提高績效和生產力。例如，我們建立了一個專注於項目執行的數字生態系統，將員工、客戶和合作夥伴聚集到一個集成環境中，以便他們能夠無縫地協同工作。這加快了跨項目的設計、集成、測試和部署，幫助我們高質量、快速、高效地交付。我們正在增加在這個生態系統中運行的程序的數量。如今，我們有超過 100 個活躍的項目正在這樣做。

We're also investing in and advancing the technologies and digital systems in our factories. We're scaling this across the enterprise to drive efficiencies that should benefit all of our stakeholders. For example, on the B-21, we've successfully demonstrated the use of this digital thread tied to advanced manufacturing technologies to realize over 15% labor efficiencies in 1 area of the build. And in June, we launched the expansion of this approach across the whole build process. We're extending this digital thread into our business operations to deliver further benefits across the company. This includes how we're managing our supply chain, where we've broadly centralized procurement and we're working to leverage our purchasing power to reduce costs.

我們還投資並推進工廠的技術和數字系統。我們正在整個企業範圍內擴展這一點，以提高效率，讓所有利益相關者受益。例如，在 B-21 上，我們成功演示瞭如何使用這種與先進製造技術相結合的數字主線，在建造的 1 個區域實現超過 15% 的勞動效率。六月，我們在整個構建過程中擴展了這種方法。我們正在將這一數字主線擴展到我們的業務運營中，以便為整個公司帶來更多利益。這包括我們如何管理供應鏈，我們廣泛集中採購，並努力利用我們的購買力來降低成本。

We have over 20,000 suppliers, and we've begun securely connecting them into our digital ecosystem. Over the next several years, we expect to have the majority of our supply base fully integrated. This is expected to lower supplier costs and significantly improve productivity.

我們擁有超過 20,000 家供應商，並且我們已經開始將它們安全地連接到我們的數字生態系統中。在接下來的幾年裡，我們預計我們的大部分供應基地將完全整合。預計這將降低供應商成本並顯著提高生產率。

The third key area of margin opportunity is our business mix. For several years, we've had one of the highest cost plus development contract mixes in the industry, reflecting our significant early-stage position on key franchise programs, which will transition to production throughout this decade. This cost plus mix has been increasing, with our first half revenue at 55% cost plus, up from about 50-50 last year. Looking forward, we see this shifting towards more fixed price revenue, rising to approximately 60% of sales by 2027 as a number of large programs in all 4 of our sectors transition to production.

利潤機會的第三個關鍵領域是我們的業務組合。多年來，我們一直擁有業內成本加成最高的開發合同組合之一，這反映了我們在關鍵特許經營項目上的重要早期地位，這些項目將在這十年內過渡到生產。這種成本加成組合一直在增加，我們上半年的收入為成本加成 55%，高於去年的約 50-50%。展望未來，隨著我們所有 4 個行業的許多大型項目過渡到生產，我們預計這種收入將轉向更加固定價格的收入，到 2027 年將增至銷售額的約 60%。

Production program margins are typically a few points higher than development margins. So mix shift can contribute meaningfully to our segment operating margin rate. And we are making good progress on moving programs through development and into production. For example, AARGM-ER completed its fifth consecutive test flight in the second quarter. This program is nearing completion of its development phase and is on track to ramp production volumes next year. And on B-21, we successfully powered on the first flight test aircraft in the quarter, another important milestone in our campaign to achieve first flight and transition to production.

生產計劃利潤通常比開發利潤高幾個百分點。因此，混合轉變可以對我們部門的運營利潤率做出有意義的貢獻。我們在將項目從開發轉向生產方面取得了良好進展。例如，AARGM-ER在第二季度完成了連續第五次試飛。該項目的開發階段已接近完成，並有望在明年提高產量。在 B-21 上，我們成功啟動了本季度首架試飛飛機，這是我們實現首飛和過渡到生產的活動中的另一個重要里程碑。

We also expect our international business to grow at a double-digit rate over the next few years. Improving margin opportunity as global sales become a larger percentage of our mix. In the second quarter, we demonstrated our IBCS solution for 8 potential international customers, reflecting growing demand for this advanced air and missile defense capability. We also signed a memorandum of agreement with Rheinmetall to expand capacity for F-35 center fuselage production in Europe. We expect these 3 drivers to result in improved affordability, even better performance and higher margins. When combined with the strength of our backlog and increasing global demand, these operating margin improvements should provide the foundation for strong future free cash flow growth.

我們還預計未來幾年我們的國際業務將以兩位數的速度增長。隨著全球銷售在我們產品組合中所佔的比例越來越大，利潤機會也隨之增加。第二季度，我們向 8 個潛在國際客戶展示了我們的 IBCS 解決方案，反映出對這種先進防空和導彈防禦能力不斷增長的需求。我們還與萊茵金屬簽署了一份協議備忘錄，以擴大歐洲 F-35 中心機身的生產能力。我們預計這三個驅動因素將提高可承受性、更好的性能和更高的利潤。結合我們的積壓實力和不斷增長的全球需求，這些營業利潤率的改善將為未來強勁的自由現金流增長奠定基礎。

Now with respect to capital deployment, we're executing a strategy that prioritizes investments to support our business plans and return cash to shareholders. In May, we increased our dividend for the 20th consecutive year by 8%. Year-to-date, we have returned $1.5 billion to shareholders and are on track to meet our goal of returning more than 100% of free cash flow this year. Overall, the global defense budget outlook and our alignment with customer priorities give us confidence in our growth trajectory. We are focused on margin expansion opportunities and converting this to free cash flow growth to deliver value both for our customers and our shareholders.

現在，在資本部署方面，我們正在執行一項戰略，優先考慮投資以支持我們的業務計劃並向股東返還現金。 5月份，我們連續20年將股息提高了8%。今年迄今為止，我們已向股東返還 15 億美元，並有望實現今年返還 100% 以上自由現金流的目標。總體而言，全球國防預算前景以及我們與客戶優先事項的一致性使我們對我們的增長軌跡充滿信心。我們專注於利潤擴張機會，並將其轉化為自由現金流增長，為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

So with that, I'll hand it over to Dave, and he'll cover details of the second quarter financial results and updates to our full year outlook.

因此，我將把它交給戴夫，他將介紹第二季度財務業績的詳細信息以及我們全年展望的更新。

Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report another solid quarter. We remain focused on executing our strategy and believe we're well positioned to grow our top line, earnings and cash flows for years to come. The demand environment continues to be robust, supported by the alignment of our portfolio with our customers' highest priority missions. And as Kathy described, we see a path to expand margins in the second half of this year and beyond as macro pressures ease and we drive efficiencies into our business as it grows and experiences mixed tailwinds.

謝謝，凱西，大家早上好。我們很高興地報告又一個穩健的季度。我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略，並相信我們有能力在未來幾年增加我們的營收、盈利和現金流。在我們的產品組合與客戶最優先任務保持一致的支持下，需求環境持續強勁。正如凱西所描述的，隨著宏觀壓力的緩解，我們看到了今年下半年及以後擴大利潤率的道路，隨著業務的增長和經歷混合的順風車，我們提高了業務效率。

Now turning to Q2 results. we generated $10.9 billion of new awards, a higher total than we previously expected. Our book-to-bill was 1.14 and was driven by restricted awards of $5.4 billion. This brings our year-to-date total to $8.6 billion in restricted bookings. Looking forward, we expect a number of production awards in the second half of the year, including the first lot of B-21 LRIP.

現在轉向第二季度的結果。我們獲得了 109 億美元的新獎項，總額高於我們之前的預期。我們的訂單出貨率為 1.14，是由 54 億美元的限制性獎勵推動的。這使得我們今年迄今為止的限制預訂總額達到 86 億美元。展望未來，我們預計下半年將獲得多項生產獎項，其中包括第一批 B-21 LRIP。

Moving to sales on Slide 4 in our earnings deck. We delivered strong top line growth of 9% in the second quarter, building on the momentum from Q1, as a result of our success in bringing on new employees, incremental improvements in the supply chain and continued backlog strength, our sales are growing at a higher rate, and we've increased our full year guidance. With respect to segment results, all 4 of our businesses grew in the second quarter. Space continues to lead the way with their second consecutive quarter of 17% sales growth as GBSD, NGI and restricted space programs continue to ramp. And Defense Systems sales increased 10% on the strength of their armaments and missile defense franchises. Mission Systems growth of 5% was driven by restricted programs in the Network Information Solutions business, and Aeronautics Systems returned to growth as higher volume on restricted programs outpaced the headwinds on legacy programs as we've anticipated.

轉到我們收益表中幻燈片 4 上的銷售情況。在第一季度的勢頭基礎上，我們在第二季度實現了 9% 的強勁營收增長，由於我們成功引進了新員工、供應鏈的逐步改進以及持續的積壓實力，我們的銷售額正以更高的利率，並且我們提高了全年指導。就分部業績而言，我們的四項業務在第二季度均實現增長。隨著 GBSD、NGI 和受限空間項目的持續增長，空間領域繼續領先，連續第二個季度銷售額增長 17%。憑藉其軍備和導彈防禦專營權，國防系統公司的銷售額增長了 10%。任務系統 5% 的增長是由網絡信息解決方案業務中的限制性項目推動的，而航空系統公司則恢復了增長，因為限制性項目的數量增加超過了傳統項目的阻力，正如我們所預期的那樣。

Turning to Slide 5. Segment margins in the second quarter were 11%. Keep in mind that Q2 of last year included over $70 million or 80 basis points of benefit from a land sale and a contract related legal matter. Most importantly, margin dollars improved incrementally from Q1, largely meeting our expectations. Program performance remains strong across the portfolio, as the team does a good job in navigating the lingering disruption from the pandemic and macroeconomic factors we've been discussing. One area of pressure we experienced in the quarter was a $36 million unfavorable adjustment on NASA's Habitation and Logistics Outpost program, or HALO, in our Space Systems sector.

轉向幻燈片 5。第二季度的部門利潤率為 11%。請記住，去年第二季度包括來自土地出售和合同相關法律事務的超過 7000 萬美元或 80 個基點的收益。最重要的是，利潤率較第一季度逐步改善，基本符合我們的預期。整個投資組合的計劃表現仍然強勁，因為該團隊在應對我們一直在討論的大流行和宏觀經濟因素造成的揮之不去的干擾方面做得很好。我們在本季度經歷的一個壓力領域是對 NASA 空間系統部門的居住和後勤前哨計劃 (HALO) 進行了 3600 萬美元的不利調整。

Moving to earnings per share on Slide 6. Diluted EPS in the second quarter were $5.34. This included lower net pension income of roughly $1 per share, partially offset by more favorable returns on marketable securities than in the same period last year.

轉到幻燈片 6 上的每股收益。第二季度的稀釋每股收益為 5.34 美元。其中包括每股約 1 美元的較低淨養老金收入，部分被有價證券比去年同期更有利的回報所抵消。

Slide 7 highlights the nonoperational pension headwinds we experienced in Q2. On a year-over-year basis, 2023 pension income will be lower for all periods when compared to 2022, but these headwinds are expected to dissipate as we look to 2024. With respect to cash, we generated strong free cash flow in the second quarter of over $600 million, a significant increase compared to the same period last year, in which we had an outflow of $460 million. This improvement was driven by increased billings and timing of collections across the company. We paid roughly $360 million of cash taxes associated with Section 174, and we continue to expect a full year impact of a little over $700 million.

幻燈片 7 強調了我們在第二季度經歷的非經營性養老金不利因素。與去年同期相比，2023 年所有時期的養老金收入都將低於 2022 年，但隨著我們展望 2024 年，這些不利因素預計將消失。就現金而言，我們在第二季度產生了強勁的自由現金流本季度資金流出超過 6 億美元，與去年同期相比大幅增加，去年同期流出 4.6 億美元。這一改進是由整個公司的賬單和收款時間的增加推動的。我們支付了與第 174 條相關的大約 3.6 億美元現金稅，我們仍然預計全年影響將略高於 7 億美元。

Moving to 2023 guidance. I'll start with a few updates to our sector estimates, which you can see on Slide 8. Our Space business continues to deliver outstanding sales growth and bookings, demonstrating the strength of its diverse portfolio of capabilities. As a result, we're increasing sales guidance for Space to the high $13 billion range. Remember, as recently as 2019, this business was generating revenue in the mid-$7 billion range. So our guidance this year reflects a fantastic 4-year CAGR of roughly 17%. At Defense Systems, based on the strength of their year-to-date results, we're increasing our full year expectations for this business to the mid- to high $5 billion range. This represents growth in the low single-digit range. There are no changes to our revenue expectations at AS or MS. With respect to margin rates, we're maintaining our expectations for AS, DS and MS, and we're projecting a lower operating margin rate at Space to reflect the rapid increase in new program wins and their first half results.

轉向 2023 年指導。我將首先對我們的行業預測進行一些更新，您可以在幻燈片 8 中看到這些更新。我們的太空業務繼續實現出色的銷售增長和預訂量，展示了其多元化能力組合的實力。因此，我們將 Space 的銷售指導提高至 130 億美元的高位。請記住，就在 2019 年，該業務的收入在 70 億美元左右。因此，我們今年的指導反映了大約 17% 的驚人的 4 年復合年增長率。在國防系統公司，根據其今年迄今的強勁業績，我們將該業務的全年預期提高至 50 億美元的中高端範圍。這代表著低個位數的增長。我們對 AS 或 MS 的收入預期沒有變化。就利潤率而言，我們維持對 AS、DS 和 MS 的預期，並且我們預計 Space 的運營利潤率較低，以反映新項目獲勝及其上半年業績的快速增長。

At the company level, this translates to an increase to our sales guidance of $400 million and a growth rate between 5% and 6% for the full year. We're maintaining our expectations for segment operating income dollars. We expect a slightly higher full year tax rate of 17%, and we've reduced our projection for shares outstanding to the mid 152 million to reflect our latest share repurchase expectations. Our EPS outlook continues to assume Q3 closure of the sale of the minority investment for which we increased our full year EPS guidance by $0.40 last quarter. This quarter, we're increasing the lower end of our guidance range by $0.20.

在公司層面，這意味著我們的銷售指導增加了 4 億美元，全年增長率在 5% 到 6% 之間。我們維持對分部營業收入的預期。我們預計全年稅率將略高至 17%，並且我們已將流通股預測下調至 1.52 億股，以反映我們最新的股票回購預期。我們的每股收益展望繼續假設第三季度少數股權投資的出售結束，為此我們上季度將全年每股收益指導上調了 0.40 美元。本季度，我們將指導範圍的下限提高了 0.20 美元。

We remain on track with our full year outlook for cash and continue to expect to grow our free cash flow to about $3 billion by 2025. This represents a greater than 20% CAGR, driven by the growth of our business and structural tailwinds from cash taxes, lower CapEx and higher CAS recoveries. And over the next 5 years, we see an opportunity to approximately double our current level of free cash flow.

我們仍然對全年現金前景保持樂觀，並繼續預計到 2025 年我們的自由現金流將增至約 30 億美元。在我們業務增長和現金稅結構性推動因素的推動下，複合年增長率將超過 20% 、較低的資本支出和較高的 CAS 回收率。在接下來的五年裡，我們看到了將目前的自由現金流水平大約增加一倍的機會。

Lastly, we continue to execute our balanced capital deployment plan. This includes investments of over $2.8 billion in R&D and CapEx this year and returning excess capital to shareholders via our quarterly dividend and share repurchase plans. For the year, we continue to expect to return over 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders, including roughly $1.5 billion in share repurchases. We also plan to retire $1 billion of notes that mature in August, and we don't have any additional bond maturities until 2025. Overall, the Northrop Grumman team delivered a strong first half of the year. Our business strategy is working, and we're continuing to drive additional growth in sales, earnings and cash. With growing global demand for our portfolio of solutions and solid program performance, we're building long-term value for all our stakeholders.

最後，我們繼續執行平衡的資本部署計劃。這包括今年超過 28 億美元的研發和資本支出投資，以及通過我們的季度股息和股票回購計劃將多餘資本返還給股東。今年，我們繼續預計將超過 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東，其中包括約 15 億美元的股票回購。我們還計劃註銷 8 月份到期的 10 億美元票據，並且在 2025 年之前我們沒有任何額外的債券到期。總體而言，諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊在今年上半年表現強勁。我們的業務戰略正在發揮作用，我們將繼續推動銷售額、收入和現金的進一步增長。隨著全球對我們的解決方案組合和可靠的項目績效的需求不斷增長，我們正在為所有利益相關者創造長期價值。

And with that, let's open up the call for questions.

接下來，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自Vertical Research 的Robert Stallard。

A couple of questions from me. First of all, Kathy, thanks for your commentary on the margin expectations for the next few years. But I was wondering, as you talk about this, what are you expecting on the B-21 LRIP? Is that still anticipated to be around a sort of breakeven margin in your expectation? And then secondly, does the end of the F-18 have an impact on this?

我有幾個問題。首先，凱西，感謝您對未來幾年利潤率預期的評論。但我想知道，當你談論這個問題時，你對 B-21 LRIP 有什麼期望？您的預期是否仍會達到盈虧平衡點？其次，F-18的退役對此有影響嗎？

Rob, thanks for the question. So as we look at the profile going forward for B-21, as we've noted before, we are not planning to have margin from the LRIP contracts. So when I talk about our margin projections going forward, it anticipates that. I will remind you, we still have the risk factor associated with B-21 as we look at inflationary impacts. In the quarter, we did receive notification that the DoD has allocated $60 million for B-21 LRIP procurement due to inflationary impacts and we expect that to be awarded later this year. But keep in mind, this only applies to the one fiscal year it's associated with, FY '23, and we continue to work closely with the government on an effort to address the impacts of macroeconomic disruption.

羅布，謝謝你的提問。因此，正如我們之前指出的，當我們審視 B-21 的未來概況時，我們不打算從 LRIP 合同中獲得保證金。因此，當我談論我們未來的利潤預測時，它就預料到了這一點。我要提醒您的是，在考慮通脹影響時，我們仍然存在與 B-21 相關的風險因素。在本季度，我們確實收到通知，由於通貨膨脹的影響，國防部已撥款 6000 萬美元用於 B-21 LRIP 採購，我們預計這筆資金將在今年晚些時候發放。但請記住，這僅適用於與之相關的一個財政年度，即 23 財年，我們將繼續與政府密切合作，努力解決宏觀經濟混亂的影響。

With regard to your question about F-18, yes, our projections also incorporate the line down of the F-18 production line. We've been anticipating that. It is built into our plans as we think about our production profile over time. That mix is being driven not just with Aerospace programs like B-21 transitioning into production and F-35 continuing to grow. It is built on our entire portfolio, all 4 of our segments will see program shifting from development to production in that time frame and that mix shifting.

關於你關於F-18的問題，是的，我們的預測還包括F-18生產線的下線。我們一直在期待這一點。當我們隨著時間的推移考慮我們的生產概況時，它就被納入我們的計劃中。推動這種混合的不僅僅是 B-21 等航空航天項目的生產和 F-35 的持續增長。它建立在我們整個產品組合的基礎上，我們的所有 4 個部門都將在該時間範圍內看到項目從開發到生產的轉變以及組合的轉變。

Okay. Then just a quick follow-up on the HALO program. Could you clarify if this is a fixed price development program or if it has a different contractual structure?

好的。然後是 HALO 計劃的快速跟進。您能否澄清這是一個固定價格開發計劃還是具有不同的合同結構？

It is a fixed price program. We had worked with the government in a cost-plus structure through the preliminary design review. So we had a more mature design before transitioning into a fixed-price contract structure. And as I noted in my comments, we are being even more disciplined moving forward in ensuring that we work with the government to have the appropriate use of fixed-price contracts. We think that is best applied for commercial items or production programs with stable requirements and mature design, as it's turning out on the HALO program. The requirements are not as stable as we or the government anticipated, and we're working with them to address that change management as we go forward.

這是一個固定價格計劃。我們通過初步設計審查，以成本加成的結構與政府合作。因此，在轉變為固定價格合同結構之前，我們有一個更成熟的設計。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，我們正在更加自律地前進，以確保我們與政府合作，適當使用固定價格合同。我們認為這最適用於具有穩定需求和成熟設計的商業項目或生產項目，正如它在 HALO 項目中所體現的那樣。這些要求並不像我們或政府預期的那麼穩定，我們正在與他們合作，在我們前進的過程中解決變革管理問題。

Our next question comes from Richard Safran with Seaport Global Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Partners 的 Richard Safran。

So you've been a bit reluctant to talk about this so far, but I thought I'd see if you'd comment on the NGAD sixth generation fighter program since the Air Force just recently announced the competition. What I'd like to know is if you're thinking about bidding this as a prime. And I'd also like to know if you could -- if this program is considered part of your growth strategy. So any color you could provide there would be helpful.

所以到目前為止你有點不願意談論這個，但我想看看你是否會對 NGAD 第六代戰鬥機計劃發表評論，因為空軍最近剛剛宣布了競爭。我想知道的是，您是否正在考慮將其作為主要競標。我還想知道您是否可以——該計劃是否被視為您的增長戰略的一部分。因此，您可以提供的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Thanks, Rich. Yes, before the government officially announced the program and their intend to issue the RFP, we had been quiet, but we have notified the U.S. Air Force that we're not planning to respond to the NGAD RFP as a prime. We are responding to other bidders request for proposal as a supplier. That's particularly in our Mission Systems portfolio. And as I noted in my remarks, we are remaining disciplined in assessing the right programs to pursue, and that's one where we feel we're well positioned with a mature offering. And where the business deal reflects an appropriate balance of risk and reward for both the customer and the industrial base. So the [novice] decision on this program doesn't impact our path to sales and earnings growth at NGIS. We have a strong backlog in that sector, and we have other opportunities in military aircraft that we are pursuing.

謝謝，里奇。是的，在政府正式宣布該計劃並打算發布 RFP 之前，我們一直保持沉默，但我們已通知美國空軍，我們不打算以主要方式回應 NGAD RFP。我們正在以供應商的身份回應其他投標人的建議書請求。這尤其是在我們的任務系統產品組合中。正如我在發言中指出的那樣，我們在評估要實施的正確計劃方面仍然保持紀律，我們認為我們在成熟的產品方面處於有利地位。商業交易反映了客戶和工業基礎的風險和回報的適當平衡。因此，關於該計劃的[新手]決定不會影響我們 NGIS 的銷售和收入增長之路。我們在該領域有大量積壓訂單，並且我們在軍用飛機方面還有其他機會。

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的羅恩·愛潑斯坦。

I guess I have to dig down a little bit further on that. Would that no bid also cross over to F/A-XX, or do you -- is that a related program or a different program? How should we think about that? Or is that when -- you'd want to be a supplier on as well?

我想我必須進一步深入研究這一點。沒有出價也會交叉到 F/A-XX 嗎？或者，這是一個相關的計劃還是一個不同的計劃？我們應該如何思考這個問題？或者您也想成為供應商嗎？

Well, I'll just say that when I noted, we have other opportunities we are pursuing. I won't disclose at this point exactly what those are. So a little more information comes out on other programs but you could assume that if we feel we're well positioned and the government is appropriately balancing risk and reward, as I said, that would be a program we would pursue.

好吧，我只想說，當我注意到時，我們還有其他我們正在追求的機會。目前我不會透露具體內容。因此，關於其他計劃的更多信息出現了，但你可以假設，如果我們認為我們處於有利地位，並且政府正在適當地平衡風險和回報，正如我所說，這將是我們將追求的計劃。

Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格。

Maybe following back up on those 2 questions. I mean, not bidding as a prime at NGAD. Kathy, is this part of your strategy in terms of containing margin growth in the next few years? Because when you look at historically, you guys had walked away from T7. You'd walk away from the tanker and avoided the winner's curse. Is that how to think about the strategy for this program? Or are there other factors in play that we should consider?

也許可以跟進這兩個問題。我的意思是，不作為 NGAD 的主要競標者。凱西，這是您未來幾年控制利潤增長戰略的一部分嗎？因為當你回顧歷史時，你們已經離開了T7。你會離開油輪並避免勝利者的詛咒。這是如何考慮這個計劃的策略的？或者還有其他我們應該考慮的因素嗎？

Well, Kristine, certainly, your words not mine, but we do feel that discipline has served us well in the past in selecting how much risk to take and what to pursue. And we've learned lessons from some of our own experience as well. So we are applying those as we think about what to bid and what not to bid going forward. And that is critical to us expanding our margins back to what investors expect of this company. And it's the 3 factors I mentioned, but bid discipline and ensuring we have the right combination of risk and reward is important. And it's not just important for us to be able to meet our commitments to investors. But for the entire industrial base to remain healthy so that we can have industrial base that investors want to invest in.

好吧，克里斯汀，當然，你的話不是我的話，但我們確實認為，過去在選擇要承擔多少風險和追求什麼方面，紀律對我們很有幫助。我們也從自己的一些經驗中吸取了教訓。因此，我們在考慮未來要投標什麼和不投標什麼時會應用這些內容。這對於我們將利潤率擴大到投資者對該公司的期望至關重要。這是我提到的三個因素，但投標紀律和確保我們擁有正確的風險和回報組合很重要。對我們來說，重要的不僅僅是能夠履行對投資者的承諾。但整個工業基礎保持健康，才能有投資者願意投資的工業基礎。

Our next question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

On the margin question, when we look at history, generally, inflation, it doesn't affect defense companies that much. And we've obviously seen a very difficult 2 years where it rose and you've talked about this rose very quickly and you've had to absorb costs and fixed price contracts. When you look forward, you talked about being able to run out some of the contracts that were priced before we had that higher inflation level. But when you look at repricing contracts that go into next tranches, new work, do you expect that you're going to be able to get back to be able to price off a base cost level that can allow you to have the same kind of performance we saw in the sense in the pre-COVID era?

關於利潤率問題，當我們回顧歷史時，一般來說，通貨膨脹對國防公司的影響並不大。顯然，我們已經看到了非常困難的兩年，它的上漲，你已經談到了這種上漲非常快，你必須吸收成本和固定價格合同。當你展望未來時，你談到能夠用完在通脹水平較高之前定價的一些合同。但是，當您考慮進入下一部分、新工作的重新定價合同時，您是否期望能夠重新定價基本成本水平，從而使您能夠擁有相同的成本水平？我們在新冠疫情之前的時代所看到的表現是什麼？

Yes, Doug, we do expect that to be the case. The government will look at the actuals that we have experienced and the inflationary pressures are absolutely showing up, not only in labor but materials, which then provide us the basis to work with the government and negotiate off of those higher costs in the future contract.

是的，道格，我們確實希望情況如此。政府將關注我們所經歷的實際情況，通貨膨脹壓力絕對會顯現出來，不僅在勞動力方面，而且在材料方面，這為我們與政府合作並在未來合同中談判消除這些較高成本提供了基礎。

And then clearly -- and it sounds like you're looking at this. So over the next 12 months or so, you should see this shift. But clearly, it also requires more money in the budget. We saw a lot of money coming in, in the '23 budget from the Senate last year, but you're expecting then the budget to also be able to cover these higher costs?

然後很明顯——聽起來你正在看這個。因此，在接下來的 12 個月左右的時間裡，您應該會看到這種轉變。但顯然，這也需要更多的預算資金。去年參議院的 23 年預算中我們看到了大量資金流入，但您是否期望預算也能夠覆蓋這些更高的成本？

I expect that the budget will need to incorporate these higher costs to the extent that inflation exceeds the growth of the overall budget, there could, of course, be supplementals, or priorities will be made in terms of what the government will buy. And we're already seeing this where the government is having to reduce quantities on programs from their anticipated levels to address the higher cost coming in based on inflation, and we expect that to continue for the foreseeable future as these contracts come up for renewal.

我預計，如果通貨膨脹超過總體預算的增長，預算將需要納入這些較高的成本，當然，可能會有補充，或者將根據政府購買的內容確定優先順序。我們已經看到，政府不得不從預期水平減少項目數量，以解決通貨膨脹帶來的更高成本問題，並且我們預計，隨著這些合同的續簽，這種情況在可預見的未來將持續下去。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I want to ask about Space specifically, please. Your revised guidance takes into account $1.6 billion of sales growth in 2023. Can you maybe bucket this growth for us? Where is it coming from? How much of it is GBSD? And how do we think about the margin implications of this growth given the quarter?

我想具體詢問有關太空的問題。您修訂後的指導考慮了 2023 年 16 億美元的銷售增長。您能否為我們考慮這一增長？它從哪裡來？ GBSD 佔多少？我們如何看待本季度這種增長對利潤率的影響？

So a good bit of the growth has been and continues this year to come from 2 programs, GBSD and NGI. We have talked about that being approximately half of the growth. And the other half coming from a broad set of programs, but most notably, our national security portfolio, which is about 80% of our overall revenue in the Space business. And the margin profile is similar across those businesses, with early phase development being lower margin as we shift into production like we talked about earlier on the call, will present the opportunity for space margins to continue to expand.

因此，今年的增長很大一部分來自 GBSD 和 NGI 這兩個項目。我們已經討論過這大約佔增長的一半。另一半來自一系列廣泛的項目，但最值得注意的是我們的國家安全產品組合，約占我們太空業務總收入的 80%。這些業務的利潤率情況相似，隨著我們進入生產階段，早期開發的利潤率較低，就像我們之前在電話會議上談到的那樣，這將為空間利潤率繼續擴大提供機會。

But we're really pleased with the 9% that we're seeing there. Obviously, we're going to work to get that closer to 10% through the work that we're doing, both on performance and in the longer term, as mix just seen and have the potential to go even higher. But when you look at 9% for a business that has absorbed that type of growth and been able to continue to manage through the disruption of the macroeconomic environment, we feel like we're in a good place.

但我們對所看到的 9% 感到非常滿意。顯然，我們將通過我們正在做的工作，努力讓這一數字接近 10%，無論是在性能方面還是從長遠來看，正如剛剛看到的那樣，並且有可能進一步提高。但當你看到一家已經吸收了這種增長並能夠繼續應對宏觀經濟環境破壞的企業的 9% 時，我們感覺我們處於一個很好的位置。

Our next question comes from Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的馬特·埃克斯。

I wanted to ask about Sentinel. I think there was a GAO report during the quarter that talked about maybe some scheduled risk on that program. I think it's cost-plus anyway, but just your thoughts on how that program is going, if there is maybe any risk to you guys on that.

我想問一下哨兵。我認為本季度美國政府問責局 (GAO) 的一份報告談到了該計劃可能存在的一些預定風險。我認為無論如何，這都是成本加成，但只是您對該計劃進展情況的想法，如果你們對此可能有任何風險。

Yes. Thanks for the question. So this is in regards to Sentinel or GBSD, as many of you know it. And there was a GAO report that focus schedule pressure. We've been talking about that and the U.S. Air Force has as well as we have seen disruption in supply that has flow through to schedule pressure on the program. We're in the process of working with the Air Force on looking to optimize the schedule to see what we can pull left, what obviously is shifting right, and how we can maintain the initial operating capability, which is the primary focus of the government so that we can replace those missiles in the silos as anticipated later in the decade.

是的。謝謝你的提問。正如你們很多人所知，這是關於 Sentinel 或 GBSD 的。美國政府問責局 (GAO) 的一份報告重點關注了進度壓力。我們一直在談論這個問題，美國空軍以及我們都看到了供應中斷，這給該計劃帶來了進度壓力。我們正在與空軍合作，尋求優化時間表，看看什麼可以向左拉，什麼可以明顯右移，以及如何保持初始作戰能力，這是政府的首要關注點這樣我們就可以按照本十年晚些時候的預期更換發射井中的那些導彈。

Okay. And then if I could follow up, I guess, maybe on working capital, Dave, I don't know if you could just comment on your thoughts on how that progresses in the second half?

好的。然後，如果我可以跟進，我想，也許是關於營運資金，戴夫，我不知道你是否可以評論一下你對下半年進展情況的看法？

Sure. Thanks, Matt. We continue to feel really good about our working capital status as efficient, I think, as any across the industry, and particularly strong in the second quarter. We mentioned $1 billion of improvement year-over-year in free cash flow that was bolstered by the strength of our invoicing and collection efforts during the quarter, which puts us in good stead as we think about where we stand year-to-date compared to a year ago. We continue to expect typical seasonal pattern with the strongest free cash flow and therefore, working capital efficiency in the fourth quarter of the year. But overall, I feel good about our working capital efforts.

當然。謝謝，馬特。我認為我們的營運資金狀況與整個行業一樣高效，並且在第二季度尤其強勁，我們仍然對此感到非常滿意。我們提到，自由現金流同比改善了 10 億美元，這得益於本季度我們的發票和收款工作的力度，這使我們在考慮今年迄今為止的情況時處於有利地位。到一年前。我們繼續預計今年第四季度將出現典型的季節性模式，自由現金流最強，因此營運資本效率也最高。但總的來說，我對我們的營運資金努力感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Kathy, thanks for your comments on the mix and kind of the longer-term outlook on where that transitions from cost-plus to kind of fixed price mix for the company. Is 2023 kind of the peak year? Or is it more like next year for cost-plus? And then just, Dave, related to kind of just your comments on working capital, how do we think about the working capital profile kind of over that similar period? Is that like -- does that become a headwind? Or is it an opportunity for you?

凱西，感謝您對公司從成本加成過渡到固定價格組合的組合和長期前景的評論。 2023 年是高峰年嗎？或者成本加成更像是明年？然後，戴夫，關於您對營運資本的評論，我們如何看待相似時期的營運資本狀況？這會成為逆風嗎？或者這對你來說是一個機會嗎？

Thank you, Peter. I'll start with your mix question. Yes, this is the year to think of as the high watermark for cost-type work given where we are in the development cycle, particularly on many of our largest programs. We mentioned we've been in the 55% of sales range in terms of the cost plus mix in the first half of the year. We expect that to ease slightly in the second half. But it's really over the next 4, 5 years, we'll see that shift back to the other side of 50-50 and toward that 60-40 fixed price mix that we described in our prepared remarks. So that is a meaningful opportunity for us in terms of margin expansion as we help deliver those capabilities to our customers in the production phases of the programs.

謝謝你，彼得。我將從你的混合問題開始。是的，考慮到我們所處的開發週期，尤其是我們許多最大的項目，今年應該被視為成本型工作的高水位線。我們提到，就今年上半年的成本加成而言，我們已經處於銷售額的 55% 範圍內。我們預計下半年情況會略有緩解。但實際上，在接下來的 4、5 年裡，我們將看到這種轉變回到 50-50 的另一邊，並轉向我們在準備好的評論中描述的 60-40 固定價格組合。因此，就利潤擴張而言，這對我們來說是一個有意義的機會，因為我們幫助在項目的生產階段向客戶提供這些功能。

Working capital longer term, as I mentioned, we're really pleased with our working capital efficiency when we think about where we finished 2022, where we project 2023 finishing as well. And so we don't think of working capital as a source of a lot of upside opportunity for additional efficiency over the next 5 years, nor do we think of it as an area of expected headwind. I think it will be more neutral than that.

長期營運資金，正如我提到的，當我們考慮 2022 年的目標以及預計 2023 年的目標時，我們對我們的營運資本效率感到非常滿意。因此，我們不認為營運資本是未來五年提高效率的大量上行機會的來源，也不認為它是一個預期的逆風領域。我認為它會比這更加中立。

So when you think about what will drive that opportunity to double our current run rate of free cash flow over the next 5 years, think of it in terms of growth in the sales volume of the business, the margin rate opportunity we've been talking about and the conversion of those margin dollars to cash flow, that's certainly the #1 effort and the #1 driver. But then coincident with that, you'll see a decline in demand for capital expenditures. We're at peak levels in '23 and '24 around capital intensity. That will ease toward more historical levels over the next 5 years. You'll see some increase in CAS funding over the next couple of years in our -- in the projections we've outlined over the last few quarters. And then cash taxes will decline based on current tax law, particularly related to the amortization requirements for R&D.

因此，當您考慮什麼會推動該機會在未來 5 年內使我們目前的自由現金流運行率翻倍時，請從業務銷量的增長、我們一直在談論的利潤率機會的角度來考慮。以及將這些保證金美元轉換為現金流，這無疑是第一大努力和第一大驅動力。但與此同時，您會看到資本支出需求下降。我們在 23 年和 24 年的資本密集度達到了峰值。未來五年，這一數字將趨向歷史水平。在我們過去幾個季度概述的預測中，您會看到未來幾年 CAS 資金有所增加。然後，根據現行稅法，特別是與研發攤銷要求相關的現金稅將會下降。

Our next question comes from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治·夏皮羅。

On the options for the B-21, I mean you still got the same commentary in the Q. I think you've been expecting the first option to get called in the third quarter. Is that the time yet that we'd expect to see some real update on what the losses might be? And if -- would you sit there and just provide a number for that one option and then subsequently wait till other options are exercised? Or what's your thinking as to how you will handle that?

關於 B-21 的選項，我的意思是您在 Q 中仍然得到了相同的評論。我認為您一直期待第一個選項在第三季度被調用。現在是我們期望看到有關損失可能情況的真實更新的時候了嗎？如果——你會坐在那裡，只提供一個選項的號碼，然後等到其他選項被行使嗎？或者你對如何處理這個問題有什麼想法？

George, it's Dave. So as we talked about on the call, the first flight test aircraft successfully powered on in Q2. We remain on track for first flight this year. Again, that timing continues to depend on events and data, of course, over time. And we anticipate that, that first LRIP contract will be awarded following first flight. We will continue to evaluate the performance and the outlook for B-21 LRIP as well as the EMD portion of the program on a quarterly basis and provide updates as we have them. Of course, those will be formed by continued progress in driving efficiencies on the program as well as our understanding of that first LRIP contract lot and beyond. So we'll take all of that into account each quarter as we update our thinking.

喬治，這是戴夫。正如我們在電話中談到的，第一架試飛飛機在第二季度成功開機。我們仍有望實現今年的首次飛行。當然，隨著時間的推移，這個時間仍然取決於事件和數據。我們預計，第一份 LRIP 合同將在首次飛行後授予。我們將繼續每季度評估 B-21 LRIP 以及該計劃的 EMD 部分的績效和前景，並提供最新信息。當然，這些將通過提高該計劃效率的持續進展以及我們對第一個 LRIP 合同批次及其他項目的了解而形成。因此，我們每個季度都會在更新想法時考慮所有這些因素。

We can take that one follow-up. If you don't mind.

我們可以採取後續行動。如果你不介意的話。

(inaudible). So about half what you experienced in the first half, can you provide reasons for that slowing?

（聽不清）。那麼，您在上半年經歷的經歷大約有一半，您能提供放緩的原因嗎？

Sure. A few things I'd point out there. Obviously, the growth rate for the year for Space is increased with its guidance update to the low double digits now, and we're really pleased with that. The first half of the year has been closer to that 17% range. Some of what you see there is just a matter of the year-over-year compares where the first 2 quarters of the year were a bit lighter compares than Q4 in particular.

當然。我想指出一些事情。顯然，隨著其指引更新至低兩位數，太空今年的增長率有所提高，我們對此感到非常滿意。今年上半年已經接近 17% 的範圍。您看到的一些情況只是同比問題，特別是今年前兩個季度的情況比第四季度要輕一些。

And that's frankly the case across the business. We had a tremendous Q4 for sales volume in 2022. So we anticipate that the tough compare will lead to a lighter year-over-year growth rate in the second half of the year across all 4 of our segments as we get to Q4. But overall, the sequential growth is what we'll continue to look for from Space and other sectors. When you look across the company, you've got about 51% of our sales guidance in the second half, 49% in the first half. So you see the demonstration of continued sequential growth and the year-over-year growth rates are more of a matter of those compares.

坦率地說，整個企業的情況都是如此。 2022 年第四季度的銷量非常強勁。因此，我們預計，到第四季度時，艱難的比較將導致下半年我們所有 4 個細分市場的同比增長率放緩。但總體而言，我們將繼續從太空和其他領域尋求連續增長。當你縱觀整個公司時，你會發現下半年銷售指導的比例約為 51%，上半年為 49%。因此，您會看到持續連續增長的表現，而同比增長率更多地是這些比較的問題。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wanted to ask first about Space. And it seems like -- definitely appreciate the detailed commentary on the overall margin outlook. It seems like Space has been the business where a lot of that margin pressure has been felt most, not just maybe from foreseeable things like mix, but from surprises that have caused the company to guide down the margin there. What is about the portfolio in Space that's driving that now? And how do you assess the risk from here? Is Space still the sector where there's maybe the most margin risk due to continued work on fixed-price development programs like HALO and maybe exposure to the SDA tranches, which I think are also kind of fixed price development work. How do you see that now?

我想先問一下關於太空的問題。看起來——絕對欣賞對整體利潤前景的詳細評論。太空行業似乎是最能感受到利潤壓力的行業，不僅僅是來自混合等可預見的因素，還來自導致該公司降低利潤率的意外事件。目前推動這一趨勢的太空產品組合是什麼？您如何評估這裡的風險？由於固定價格開發項目（如 HALO）的持續開展以及可能接觸到 SDA 部分（我認為這也是一種固定價格開發工作），太空行業是否仍然是利潤率風險最大的行業？你現在怎麼看？

So overall, the Space business is performing very well. We certainly have pockets in certain programs that we are focused on continuing to improve the discipline around how we're managing those efforts along with the customer. And so I don't see Space as materially different than any other segment of our business in terms of risk profile aside from mix. Certainly, there is more risk in development programs, and that's why we generally have lower margin rates coming out of development. But as Space has transitioned programs to later-stage development and production, their performance is as solid as the rest of the business, and we expect that to continue.

總的來說，太空業務表現非常好。當然，我們在某些​​項目中確實有一些優勢，我們專注於繼續改進我們與客戶一起管理這些工作的紀律。因此，除了組合之外，就風險狀況而言，我認為太空業務與我們業務的任何其他部門沒有重大不同。當然，開發項目的風險更大，這就是為什麼我們的開發利潤率通常較低。但隨著 Space 已將項目過渡到後期開發和生產，他們的業績與其他業務一樣穩定，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

Great. And maybe just as a quick follow-up in a perhaps futile attempt to bring out a little bit more information about the NGAD strategy. I believe the collaborative combat aircraft portion of NGAD is a separate solicitation. Are you planning to pursue that?

偉大的。也許只是作為一個快速的後續行動，試圖提供更多有關 NGAD 戰略的信息，但這種嘗試可能是徒勞的。我認為 NGAD 的協同作戰飛機部分是一項單獨的招標。你打算追求那個嗎？

It is a separate solicitation, and we're looking at it closely.

這是一項單獨的招標，我們正在密切關注。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

Kathy, you mentioned margin expansion in '24, but obviously, the margins for '23 in the guidance has actually come down. So I'm just wondering -- could you put a quantum to the margin expansion you're looking for in '24? Is it to just get back to where prior '23 was? And then maybe for Dave, just a clarification. The 10-Q mentioned a $100 million gain in the third quarter. That isn't in your guidance. I wouldn't imagine just yet. Is that correct?

凱西，您提到了 24 年的利潤率擴張，但顯然，指南中 23 年的利潤率實際上已經下降。所以我只是想知道——你能在 24 年實現你所期望的利潤擴張嗎？是為了回到23年前的狀態嗎？然後也許對戴夫來說，只是一個澄清。 10-Q 報告提到第三季度收益為 1 億美元。這不在你的指導範圍內。我現在還不敢想像。那是對的嗎？

So I'll start and then turn it to Dave. As I think about margin profile, we do expect the second half of this year to be stronger than the first half. And based on our guide, you could expect us to see that progress that we have largely from macroeconomic disruption dissipating through the year to continue into 2024. The mix shift that I spoke of is more gradual. I talked about that shift towards 60% fixed price in 2027. So you could think of that as a progression through 2024 to those later years. And so we're not going to guide today around 2024, we'll provide just some more specific as the year progresses and certainly at the beginning of the year, next year, but you could think of it as a steady progression of improvement, not a dramatic change from where we've been performing this year.

所以我會開始然後把它交給戴夫。當我考慮利潤狀況時，我們確實預計今年下半年將強於上半年。根據我們的指南，您可以預期，我們所取得的進展主要來自宏觀經濟混亂，這一進展將持續到 2024 年。我所說的混合轉變更加漸進。我談到了 2027 年向 60% 固定價格的轉變。因此，您可以將其視為從 2024 年到後來幾年的進展。因此，我們今天不會在 2024 年左右提供指導，隨著時間的推移，我們只會提供一些更具體的信息，當然也會在年初、明年，但你可以將其視為穩步改進的過程，與我們今年的表現相比，這並不是一個巨大的變化。

And I could touch on the $100 million gain you referenced, that's just an approximation, of course, until that closes. We do expect that sale of an international minority investment to close in Q3. And that's the item for which we had increased our guidance range by $0.40 last quarter. So that is incorporated into our guidance net -- we see that in that $0.40 range of benefit to the company. So we're pleased to have that approaching and look forward to the cash inflow from it as well.

我可以談談您提到的 1 億美元收益，當然，這只是一個近似值，直到結束為止。我們預計國際少數股權投資的出售將在第三季度完成。這就是我們上季度將指導範圍提高了 0.40 美元的項目。因此，這已納入我們的指導網絡中——我們認為這會給公司帶來 0.40 美元的收益。因此，我們很高興看到這種情況的臨近，並期待由此帶來的現金流入。

Our next question comes from David Strauss from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

Kathy, so your -- the growth rate accelerated a little bit faster in '23 than you had initially anticipated. As we think about '24 with AS returning to growth, and I assume Space growth slowing a little bit. Would you expect top line growth in a similar range? Or is it possible that we could still see an acceleration next year overall for the company as a whole?

凱西，所以你的——23 年的增長率比你最初預期的要快一些。當我們考慮 24 年 AS 恢復增長時，我認為太空增長會稍微放緩。您預計營收會出現類似範圍的增長嗎？或者說明年我們是否仍能看到整個公司整體加速增長？

Right. So we're really pleased with the progress that we've seen this year, our sales guidance increase in the Space and DS, and our other 2 sectors continuing to see progression toward their growth objectives as well. As we think about this year, a good portion of that growth is the strong backlog that we've developed and continued win of competitive bids.

正確的。因此，我們對今年所取得的進展感到非常滿意，我們在 Space 和 DS 方面的銷售指導有所提高，而我們的其他兩個部門也繼續朝著其增長目標邁進。正如我們今年所思考的那樣，這種增長的很大一部分是我們開發的大量積壓訂單以及持續贏得競爭性投標。

Part of it, too, though, is what we've been talking about with the phenomenon of having supplier deliveries delayed last year and starting to come in this year, having ramped our headcount significantly in the latter part of last year and early part of this year that's contributing to growth rate. Those elements you wouldn't think of as it continued. It was a bit of a bow wave that we've now seen come into this year. But the growth based on backlog performance and new wins, we do expect to continue into next year and expect to see another year of healthy growth in 2024.

不過，其中一部分也是我們一直在談論的現象，即去年下半年和今年初大幅增加了我們的員工人數，去年供應商交貨延遲，今年又開始交貨。今年這對增長率做出了貢獻。那些你在繼續時不會想到的元素。我們今年看到的有點像弓波。但基於積壓業績和新訂單的增長，我們預計將持續到明年，並預計在 2024 年再次實現健康增長。

And the other point I'd add is, to your point, David, around the segment level view, we do expect the growth to be more balanced going forward with opportunities for growth in each of the 4 sectors as we demonstrated in this period in Q2. You see the growth in our Defense Systems business having recovered really nicely over the last couple of quarters. There are continued opportunities really across all 4 of the segments to drive growth.

我要補充的另一點是，大衛，就您的觀點而言，圍繞細分市場的觀點，我們確實預計未來的增長將更加平衡，四個行業中每個行業都有增長機會，正如我們在這一時期所展示的那樣Q2。您會看到我們的國防系統業務的增長在過去幾個季度中恢復得非常好。所有四個細分市場都存在持續的機會來推動增長。

Great. Quick follow-up. On the F-18, how big is that still for you today? And when would you expect that to completely run off?

偉大的。快速跟進。對於 F-18，今天對您來說還有多大？您預計什麼時候會完全消失？

Sure. Consistent with the commentary from our prime on the program, we do anticipate that production will wind down over the next couple of years. And for us, that's 1% or less of sales and, therefore, not too dramatically impactful to the overall company top line. It's incorporated into our thinking about opportunities for growth in sales at AS over the next couple of years as are the other moving pieces we've talked about throughout the call today.

當然。與我們對該計劃的評論一致，我們確實預計生產將在未來幾年內逐漸減少。對於我們來說，這僅佔銷售額的 1% 或更少，因此對公司整體營收的影響不會太大。它已融入我們對未來幾年 AS 銷售增長機會的思考中，就像我們今天在電話會議中討論的其他令人感動的事情一樣。

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Jason Gursky。

My audio has been a little choppy this morning, so I apologize if you've already commented on this. But the comments you made early in your prepared remarks, Kathy, about the backlog that you had at the end of '21 and where you are going to sit as you exit this year with having delivered about 70% of that backlog. I'm just kind of curious, the remaining 30% is still in front of you. What -- how big is the B-21 program in the remainder of that 30% that you've got still deliver on?

今天早上我的音頻有點斷斷續續，所以如果您已經對此發表評論，我深表歉意。但是，凱西，您在準備好的發言中早些時候就您在 21 年底所積壓的問題發表了評論，以及今年您交付了大約 70% 的積壓工作後，您將坐在哪裡。我只是有點好奇，剩下的30%還在你面前。剩下的 30% 的 B-21 項目有多大？

So the remainder of backlog on B-21 is relatively small because what's in backlog is the EMD program completion. Production has yet to be awarded. So there's a lot we've been talking about. We expect to get the first lot of production on contract later this year. But of course, it is priced. And so that is the contractual commitment, but we have not yet been awarded it, so it's not showing up in backlog.

因此，B-21 的剩餘積壓相對較少，因為積壓的是 EMD 計劃的完成。生產尚未授予。所以我們一直在談論很多事情。我們預計今年晚些時候將獲得第一批合同生產。但當然，它是有價格的。這就是合同承諾，但我們還沒有獲得它，所以它沒有出現在積壓訂單中。

Programs that are a significant amount of that backlog are programs like Sentinel, a sizable program that was awarded in 2020 or 2021, and is going to carry forward for several more years as part of that EMD program in backlog. And there are several others, but none that rise to that level. But I will remind you the Sentinel program is a cost-plus program.

在積壓中佔很大一部分的計劃是像 Sentinel 這樣的計劃，這是一個在 2020 年或 2021 年授予的規模相當大的計劃，並將作為積壓中的 EMD 計劃的一部分繼續進行幾年。還有其他幾個，但沒有一個達到這個水平。但我要提醒您的是，Sentinel 計劃是一個成本加成計劃。

Right. And to that point, among the fixed price programs where we talked about the 70% of that 2021 backlog having been transitioned into sales by the end of this year. There are no huge individual drivers of the remaining 30%, if you will, and that will gradually translate into sales over the next few years. So a gradual wind down of the remaining 30% based on the metrics we described earlier.

正確的。到目前為止，在固定價格計劃中，我們談到 2021 年積壓訂​​單的 70% 已在今年年底轉化為銷售。如果你願意的話，剩下的 30% 並沒有巨大的個人驅動因素，這將在未來幾年內逐漸轉化為銷售額。因此，根據我們之前描述的指標，逐漸減少剩餘的 30%。

Okay. Right. And then -- I'm sorry to beat a dead horse here on the Space margins. But I did find your comment, Kathy, interesting about the potential for the business to operate above 10%. I think you said you want to drive it to 10%, but there would be opportunities for it potentially to go above that metric at some point in the future.

好的。正確的。然後——我很抱歉在太空邊緣擊敗了一個死馬。但凱西，我確實發現您對公司運營超過 10% 的潛力的評論很有趣。我想你說過你想把它提高到 10%，但在未來的某個時候它有可能超過這個指標。

I'm just kind of curious as to whether that is a comment for the broad portfolio of your space programs? Because when I historically think of spacecraft and space-based assets, I tend to think of lower margin rates for that kind of work historically because it's been a lot of cost-plus kind of work. So I'm wondering if this is a comment about the broad portfolio and would include assets that are going to be operating up in Space. And is that comment -- if that is true, is it because you've got more fixed price work going on there than has historically been the case.

我只是有點好奇這是否是對你們廣泛的太空計劃組合的評論？因為當我歷史上考慮航天器和天基資產時，我傾向於認為歷史上此類工作的利潤率較低，因為這是大量成本加成的工作。所以我想知道這是否是對廣泛投資組合的評論，是否包括將在太空中運營的資產。如果這是真的，是不是因為那裡正在進行比歷史上更多的固定價格工作？

Yes. So as you think about the transition that the Space market has gone to where we had few large and exquisite assets. Those were largely developed under cost-plus and then transition to production, but in low quantity. Now we're seeing much less dollars go into development and then a transition into production of higher quantity. So that mix will be different in terms of development versus production in the market as a whole.

是的。因此，當你想到太空市場已經發生的轉變時，我們幾乎沒有大型而精緻的資產。這些產品主要是在成本加成下開發的，然後過渡到生產，但數量很少。現在，我們看到用於開發的資金大大減少，然後轉向更高數量的生產。因此，這種組合在整個市場的開發與生產方面會有所不同。

In addition, when you think about our portfolio and what's in our Space segment, it includes things like solid rocket motors, particularly large solid rocket motors. It includes programs like Sentinel that will transition into production, and programs like Kuiper that we've talked about. So as those transitions happen again specifically now to our portfolio, not just the market in general for Space, we see mix shifts that will be tailwinds to margin over time.

此外，當您考慮我們的產品組合以及太空領域的產品時，它包括固體火箭發動機，特別是大型固體火箭發動機等。它包括像 Sentinel 這樣將過渡到生產的程序，以及像我們已經討論過的 Kuiper 這樣的程序。因此，隨著這些轉變再次發生在我們的投資組合上，而不僅僅是整個太空市場，我們看到隨著時間的推移，組合的轉變將成為利潤率的順風車。

And Josh, we have time for one more question.

喬什，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And our last question comes from Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

Kathy, just sticking with that a little bit and tying this to the prime versus merchant supplier discussion we had in the beginning on Aeronautics. When you think about the shift, at least in satellites from GEOs to MEOs and LEOs in these highly proliferated constellations. And the significance of SDA in that part of the market and their desire for fixed price contracts. Is it better, at least in that kind of work to be on the supplier side at some point, would you consider that?

凱西，只是堅持一點，並將其與我們一開始在航空領域進行的主要供應商與商業供應商的討論聯繫起來。當你想到這種轉變時，至少在這些高度擴散的星座中，衛星從 GEO 到 MEO 和 LEO 是這樣的。以及 SDA 在該部分市場中的重要性以及他們對固定價格合同的渴望。至少在這種工作中，在某些時候成為供應商一方是否更好，您會考慮嗎？

We consider it with each opportunity, just as I discussed in our thought process around military aircraft. We don't have a blanket. We will do this, and we won't do not. We think about each opportunity in terms of its risk profile. The maturity of our designs and offerings at the time that we're being asked to bid also weighs heavily into our thinking about that decision. And so in the case of the Space Development Agency, we are executing on several programs for them today and performing quite well. .

正如我在圍繞軍用飛機的思考過程中所討論的那樣，我們抓住每一個機會都會考慮這一點。我們沒有毯子。我們會這樣做，也不會不這樣做。我們根據風險狀況來考慮每個機會。當我們被要求投標時，我們的設計和產品的成熟度也極大地影響了我們對這一決定的思考。因此，就太空發展局而言，我們今天正在為他們執行多個項目，並且表現相當不錯。 。

So we have chosen wisely and been disciplined in how we have taken on that work, and we'll continue to do that. The beauty of our portfolio, as we've talked about before, is we can choose to prime. But if we don't see the right mix of risk reward, we can also choose to be a supplier and still bring the capability forward that the government needs and expects from us.

因此，我們在如何開展這項工作方面做出了明智的選擇並遵守了紀律，我們將繼續這樣做。正如我們之前談到的，我們投資組合的美妙之處在於我們可以選擇啟動。但如果我們沒有看到正確的風險回報組合，我們也可以選擇成為供應商，並仍然提供政府需要和期望我們提供的能力。

Great. Well, I think that's about all we have time for. So thank you to each of you for joining our call today. I also again want to extend my appreciation to the Northrop Grumman team for their continued strong performance and contributions to global security. I hope that all of you enjoy the remainder of your summer, and I look forward to seeing you throughout the summer and talking to you again in October. Take care.

偉大的。嗯，我想我們的時間就這麼多了。感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我還要再次向諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊表示感謝，感謝他們持續的出色表現和對全球安全的貢獻。我希望你們所有人都享受剩下的夏天，我期待著整個夏天見到您並在十月再次與您交談。小心。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。