諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Northrop Grumman's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。歡迎來到諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2022 年第三季度電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。我的名字是米歇爾，今天我將成為您的接線員。 （操作員說明）

I would like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Treasurer and Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

我想將電話轉給您的主持人 Todd Ernst 先生，他是財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third quarter 2022 conference call. We'll refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted on our IR web page this morning.

謝謝，米歇爾。大家早上好，歡迎來到諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2022 年第三季度電話會議。我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們的 IR 網頁上的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。

Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2022 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，今天電話會議中討論的事項，包括 2022 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用信息的判斷。根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款，它們構成前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，這在今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中都有說明。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際業績出現重大差異。

Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.

今天的電話會議將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與我們在收益發布中的 GAAP 結果一致。

On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO.

今天的電話會議是我們的主席、首席執行官兼總裁 Kathy Warden；和我們的首席財務官 Dave Keffer。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us.

謝謝，托德。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。

The Northrop Grumman team delivered another quarter of solid performance. Our top line returned to growth with continued strong execution. Demand for our products remained robust with a book-to-bill ratio of near 1, including a number of key awards in our restricted and Missile Defense portfolios. And we remain on track to deliver strong results for the year, with growth expected to accelerate as we look toward next year.

諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的團隊又取得了四分之一的穩健表現。我們的收入隨著持續強勁的執行而恢復增長。對我們產品的需求保持強勁，訂單出貨比接近 1，包括我們受限和導彈防禦產品組合中的一些關鍵獎項。我們仍有望在今年取得強勁的業績，隨著我們展望明年，增長預計將加速。

Taking a step back for a moment from the quarter, I'd like to start with an update on the global security environment. Earlier this month, the Biden administration released its full version of the National Security Strategy, which is used as a guide for policy and budget decisions.

從本季度退後一步，我想從全球安全環境的更新開始。本月早些時候，拜登政府發布了完整版的《國家安全戰略》，用作政策和預算決策的指南。

The strategy spotlights the dynamic and challenging threat landscape around the world, and stresses the importance of working with allies, maintaining a strong industrial base and continuing to invest in advanced technology. It also reinforces the triad as a top priority.

該戰略突出了全球動態和具有挑戰性的威脅形勢，並強調了與盟友合作、保持強大的工業基礎和繼續投資先進技術的重要性。它還強化了三合會作為重中之重。

So it's clear that Northrop Grumman's portfolio continues to be extremely well aligned with the requirements outlined in the National Security Strategy. This is reflected in the administration's fiscal year 2023 budget request, which showed alignment with these priorities and strong support for many of our key programs.

因此很明顯，諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的投資組合繼續非常符合國家安全戰略中概述的要求。這反映在政府的 2023 財年預算申請中，該申請表明與這些優先事項保持一致，並大力支持我們的許多關鍵計劃。

Throughout this summer, congressional committees marked up the administration's defense budget request, generally increasing the proposed level of funding with the intent of strengthening the country's defense posture and addressing the impacts of inflation.

整個夏天，國會委員會都標記了政府的國防預算要求，普遍增加了擬議的資金水平，目的是加強國家的國防態勢並應對通貨膨脹的影響。

Based on these additions, we believe that the ultimate fiscal year '23 base defense budget will be higher than the President's budget request. And as you know, we started off this fiscal year in another continuing resolution, which currently extends to mid-December, and this is factored into our guidance. We are confident in our program funding positions and hopeful that the annual budget will be passed by year-end.

基於這些新增內容，我們認為 23 財年的最終國防預算將高於總統的預算要求。如您所知，我們在本財年開始時提出了另一個持續的決議，目前延長至 12 月中旬，這已納入我們的指導。我們對我們的項目資金狀況充滿信心，並希望年度預算能夠在年底前通過。

Meanwhile, global commitments to invest in Defense and National Security capability continue. In Europe, we've seen increased demand for our Integrated Air and Missile Defense solutions and precision weapons and advanced ammunition.

與此同時，全球對投資國防和國家安全能力的承諾仍在繼續。在歐洲，我們看到對我們的綜合防空和導彈防禦解決方案以及精密武器和先進彈藥的需求增加。

In the Asia Pacific region, we've seen similar interest in Air and Missile Defense as well as Maritime ISR, Advanced Radar and other Mission Systems. All this points to a strong demand environment for Northrop Grumman. And we're doing our part by investing in solutions and capacity to address many of our customers' most pressing needs.

在亞太地區，我們已經看到對防空和導彈防禦以及海上 ISR、先進雷達和其他任務系統的類似興趣。所有這些都表明諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的需求環境強勁。我們正在通過投資解決方案和能力來滿足我們許多客戶最緊迫的需求，從而儘自己的一份力量。

This year, we expect to invest over $2.5 billion in CapEx and research and development. And as a result, we're winning new business and bolstering our backlog for long-term growth. Our backlog has increased year-to-date in each of our 4 segments and is up nearly 5% overall.

今年，我們預計將在資本支出和研發方面投資超過 25 億美元。因此，我們正在贏得新業務並支持我們的長期增長積壓。年初至今，我們 4 個細分市場的積壓訂單均有所增加，總體增長近 5%。

Given this, we now expect that our full year 2022 book-to-bill ratio will be over 1, a significant improvement from where we started the year. This increase is attributed not only to the robust defense budget environment, but also a strong competitive win rate.

鑑於此，我們現在預計 2022 年全年的訂單出貨比將超過 1，與年初相比有顯著改善。這一增長不僅歸功於穩健的國防預算環境，還歸功於強大的競爭勝率。

That said, we recognize that our industry and many others are experiencing macroeconomic volatility that we haven't seen in decades. Inflation remains at 40-year high, lead times have been extended in certain areas of our supply chain, and the labor market shows signs of easing, but it remains tight for critical skills. Our team is tackling these challenges, keeping a focus on our people and performance and driving efficiencies across the business.

也就是說，我們認識到我們的行業和許多其他行業正在經歷幾十年來從未見過的宏觀經濟波動。通貨膨脹率仍處於 40 年高位，供應鏈某些領域的交貨時間已延長，勞動力市場顯示出緩和跡象，但關鍵技能仍然緊張。我們的團隊正在應對這些挑戰，專注於我們的員工和績效，並提高整個業務的效率。

In the labor market, we've driven improvements in hiring and retention over the past several months, which Dave will describe in more detail. This was instrumental in our return to growth in the third quarter. And it's worth noting that this favorable trend has continued into the fourth quarter as well. This supports our full year 2022 guidance and our outlook for accelerated sales in 2023.

在勞動力市場，我們在過去幾個月中推動了招聘和保留方面的改進，Dave 將對此進行更詳細的描述。這有助於我們在第三季度恢復增長。值得注意的是，這種有利趨勢也一直持續到第四季度。這支持了我們對 2022 年全年的指導以及我們對 2023 年加速銷售的展望。

In the supply chain, we continue to experience disruptions in delayed deliveries in certain areas of our business, which we have -- that has been a headwind to growth. It's a risk that we're closely monitoring, and we're working with our suppliers to mitigate. But we do anticipate that supply chain challenges will continue in 2023, and this is now reflected into our 2023 outlook.

在供應鏈中，我們在某些業務領域繼續遇到延遲交付的中斷，我們已經遇到了這種情況——這一直是增長的逆風。這是我們正在密切監控的風險，我們正在與供應商合作以減輕風險。但我們確實預計供應鏈挑戰將在 2023 年繼續存在，這現在反映在我們的 2023 年展望中。

Elevated inflation levels in both labor and supply chain has persisted more than expected as we came into this year. To address this, we are implementing operational efficiencies and working with many of our customers on program funding and other contract actions to support the health of the defense industrial base. We believe this balanced approach is the best solution to allow continued investment in the capabilities to support our customers' mission.

進入今年以來，勞動力和供應鏈中的通脹水平一直高於預期。為了解決這個問題，我們正在提高運營效率，並與我們的許多客戶就項目資金和其他合同行動進行合作，以支持國防工業基地的健康。我們相信這種平衡的方法是允許持續投資於支持客戶使命的能力的最佳解決方案。

With that said, we see these as temporal challenges and remain committed to driving our segment margin rates higher over time.

話雖如此，我們將這些視為暫時的挑戰，並繼續致力於推動我們的細分市場利潤率隨著時間的推移而更高。

Turning now to the execution of our long-term strategy. One of the key elements of our strategy is a relentless focus on performance. That's why I was particularly pleased to receive the 2022 Deming Cup for operational excellence on behalf of Northrop Grumman earlier this week.

現在轉向執行我們的長期戰略。我們戰略的關鍵要素之一是對績效的不懈關注。這就是為什麼我在本週早些時候代表諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司因卓越運營而獲得 2022 年戴明杯特別高興的原因。

The award recognizes our achievements and leadership in creating a culture of operational excellence and continuous improvement across the company. Our customers recognize this commitment and have entrusted us to deliver some of the most technologically advanced next-generation systems and solutions.

該獎項旨在表彰我們在創建卓越運營和持續改進文化方面的成就和領導力。我們的客戶認識到這一承諾，並委託我們提供一些技術最先進的下一代系統和解決方案。

The B-21 Raider is 1 such example, and we're excited to unveil the aircraft to the public on December 2. The B-21s outstanding performance can be directly tied to our company's investment in digital tools and facilities, and the incredible U.S. Air Force and Northrop Grumman team, who are developing this sixth-generation platform.

B-21 Raider 就是這樣的一個例子，我們很高興在 12 月 2 日向公眾展示這款飛機。B-21 的出色表現可以直接與我們公司對數字工具和設施的投資以及令人難以置信的美國空軍和諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊，他們正在開發這個第六代平台。

The program continues to progress through testing in preparation for first flight in 2023. Last month, we announced a data sharing agreement on B-21, enhancing data access and collaboration across the program, including the launch of a shared environment for the B-21 digital twin. This data sharing agreement enhances our partnership with the Air Force and further demonstrates our digital maturity on the program.

該計劃通過測試繼續取得進展，為 2023 年的首飛做準備。上個月，我們宣布了一項關於 B-21 的數據共享協議，加強了整個計劃的數據訪問和協作，包括為 B-21 啟動共享環境數字孿生。該數據共享協議加強了我們與空軍的合作夥伴關係，並進一步展示了我們在該項目上的數字成熟度。

Our Mission Systems solutions are another area of our portfolio where innovation is critical to success, where the fast pace of threats and new technologies is driving the need for platforms and sensors to be able to connect with one another, share data and be part of a broader family of systems. In this growing market, we're building on our strong position in sensors, secure communications and networking to compete for and win new opportunities.

我們的任務系統解決方案是我們產品組合的另一個領域，其中創新對成功至關重要，威脅和新技術的快速發展推動了平台和傳感器能夠相互連接、共享數據並成為更廣泛的系統家族。在這個不斷增長的市場中，我們正在建立我們在傳感器、安全通信和網絡方面的強大地位，以競爭並贏得新機遇。

For example, last month, we were selected to be a member of the Air Force's ABMS Digital Infrastructure Consortium. And we're also seeing interest from global customers including the Australian Defense Force where we recently demonstrated a product solution with robust C2 functionality to link sensors and effectors across domains.

例如，上個月，我們被選為空軍 ABMS 數字基礎設施聯盟的成員。我們還看到了包括澳大利亞國防軍在內的全球客戶的興趣，我們最近展示了一種產品解決方案，該解決方案具有強大的 C2 功能，可以跨域連接傳感器和效應器。

Another significant area of focus for the U.S. and our allies is the modernization of Missile Defense solutions to address current and future missile threats. We continue to strengthen our position in this area with a $1.3 billion Ground-based Midcourse Defense Weapon System award in the third quarter. This award builds on our Missile Defense portfolio and helps our customers defend against intermediate and intercontinental missile attacks.

美國和我們的盟友關注的另一個重要領域是導彈防禦解決方案的現代化，以應對當前和未來的導彈威脅。我們在第三季度授予 13 億美元的陸基中段防禦武器系統獎，繼續鞏固我們在這一領域的地位。該獎項以我們的導彈防禦產品組合為基礎，幫助我們的客戶抵禦中程和洲際導彈攻擊。

And turning to our weapons business. I'm pleased to share that we've now delivered more than 100,000 Precision Guidance Kits to the U.S. Army. These projectiles provide enhanced precision to artillery units and come embedded with built-in safety features. We've exceeded requirements on both accuracy and reliability with these upgrades.

並轉向我們的武器業務。我很高興地告訴大家，我們現在已經向美國陸軍交付了超過 100,000 個精確制導套件。這些射彈為火砲部隊提供了更高的精度，並嵌入了內置的安全功能。通過這些升級，我們已經超出了對準確性和可靠性的要求。

And one last area that I'll highlight is hypersonics, where we continue to win new competitive business. Last month, the Air Force selected our Raytheon and Northrop Grumman team to develop the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile also known as HACM. HACM builds on our scramjet propulsion technology and ushers in a new era of faster, more survivable weapons.

我要強調的最後一個領域是高超音速，我們將繼續贏得新的競爭業務。上個月，空軍選擇了我們的雷神公司和諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的團隊來開發高超音速攻擊巡航導彈，也稱為 HACM。 HACM 以我們的超燃沖壓發動機推進技術為基礎，開創了速度更快、生存能力更強的武器的新時代。

This program is one of several hypersonic opportunities within our portfolio. We're approaching this market as both a prime and a sub, bringing our expertise in high-speed propulsion, survival navigation and targeting capabilities, and systems integration to multiple solutions.

該計劃是我們產品組合中的幾個高超音速機會之一。我們正以主要和次要市場的身份進入這個市場，將我們在高速推進、生存導航和目標定位能力以及系統集成方面的專業知識帶入多種解決方案。

These are just a few examples of markets where we continue to grow our business by delivering the products and solutions that our customers want and need, while also building long-term value for our shareholders.

這些只是我們通過提供客戶想要和需要的產品和解決方案，同時為我們的股東創造長期價值來繼續發展業務的幾個市場示例。

So now, I'll turn it over to Dave, who will provide more color on our Q3 results and touch on our expectations for 2023. Dave?

所以現在，我將把它交給戴夫，他將為我們的第三季度業績提供更多色彩，並觸及我們對 2023 年的預期。戴夫？

Okay. Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone.

好的。謝謝，凱西，大家早上好。

As you heard from Kathy, we delivered solid results across all key metrics in Q3. We're reaching an inflection point in our sales growth, driven by the strength in the demand environment, our new business performance and our success in hiring and retaining employees. We had another strong quarter for bookings with roughly $8.7 billion in awards. This contributed to a year-to-date book-to-bill ratio of 1.14 and an increase in our full year book-to-bill expectations.

正如您從 Kathy 那裡聽到的那樣，我們在第三季度的所有關鍵指標上都取得了可靠的結果。在需求環境的強勁、我們的新業務表現以及我們在招聘和留住員工方面的成功推動下，我們的銷售增長正達到一個拐點。我們的預訂又一個強勁的季度獲得了大約 87 億美元的獎勵。這導致年初至今的訂單出貨比為 1.14，並提高了我們全年的訂單出貨預期。

Our Q3 top line results of roughly $9 billion, were up sequentially from Q2, and up about 3% compared with the third quarter of 2021. This acceleration has been driven by our positive hiring trends. We added nearly 1,000 net new employees in Q2, and we added an additional 2,700-plus people in Q3. With continued positive hiring and retention results, we've improved our labor-driven sales visibility, so the supply base is now the key to achieving our full year sales outlook.

我們第三季度的收入約為 90 億美元，比第二季度環比增長，與 2021 年第三季度相比增長約 3%。這種加速是由我們積極的招聘趨勢推動的。我們在第二季度增加了近 1,000 名淨新員工，並在第三季度增加了 2,700 多人。隨著持續積極的招聘和保留結果，我們提高了以勞動力為導向的銷售可見度，因此供應基礎現在是實現我們全年銷售前景的關鍵。

We're seeing temporal challenges in the supply chain, as are most others, including longer lead times and higher costs in some areas. Our suppliers are a critical element of the Defense Industrial Base and we're closely monitoring small businesses, who are the most vulnerable to the challenges of this macroeconomic environment, particularly inflation. We're encouraged by recent comments from Congress on this topic, and we're actively working with our customers to help mitigate inflationary effects on our contracts, including those being felt by our suppliers.

與大多數其他人一樣，我們看到供應鏈中存在暫時性挑戰，包括更長的交貨時間和某些領域的更高成本。我們的供應商是國防工業基地的重要組成部分，我們正在密切關注小企業，這些企業最容易受到這種宏觀經濟環境的挑戰，尤其是通貨膨脹的影響。國會最近就該主題發表的評論令我們感到鼓舞，我們正在積極與客戶合作，以幫助減輕通貨膨脹對我們合同的影響，包括我們的供應商所感受到的影響。

Our program execution remained solid in the quarter, with segment margins of 11.2%, reflecting lower net EAC adjustments due in part to the inflationary pressures that we've noted. As costs have remained elevated, we've captured our latest estimates of inflation and opportunities to mitigate it in our EACs. This had a downward effect on our margins in Q3. But year-to-date, our segment margins are 11.7%, and we continue to expect the full year rate to be in the range of 11.7% to 11.9%.

我們的計劃執行在本季度保持穩健，部門利潤率為 11.2%，部分原因是我們注意到的通脹壓力導致 EAC 淨調整較低。由於成本一直居高不下，我們在 EAC 中捕捉到了對通脹的最新估計以及緩解通脹的機會。這對我們第三季度的利潤率產生了下行影響。但年初至今，我們的細分市場利潤率為 11.7%，我們繼續預計全年利潤率將在 11.7% 至 11.9% 之間。

Turning to earnings per share. Our diluted EPS in the quarter were $5.89. The year-over-year earnings decline was driven by nonoperational factors, including lower net pension income, unfavorable returns on our marketable securities, and an insurance settlement for $60 million that was recognized in the third quarter of 2021. Together, these items represented roughly $0.85 of year-over-year EPS headwinds, but as I pointed out, our businesses continue to execute very well in a complex environment.

轉向每股收益。我們本季度的攤薄後每股收益為 5.89 美元。收入同比下降是由非運營因素推動的，包括較低的養老金淨收入、我們有價證券的不利回報以及 2021 年第三季度確認的 6000 萬美元的保險結算。這些項目加起來大致代表每股收益同比下降 0.85 美元，但正如我所指出的，我們的業務在復雜的環境中繼續表現良好。

In terms of cash, we generated outstanding operational cash flows in the third quarter of over $1.3 billion, and we expect Q4 to be even better. This is consistent with our historical pattern of collections and disbursements. In the quarter, we made our third cash tax payment associated -- aided with the R&D amortization law of approximately $220 million, and we continue to expect roughly $1 billion in cash tax payments related to R&D for the full year.

在現金方面，我們在第三季度產生了超過 13 億美元的優秀運營現金流，我們預計第四季度會更好。這與我們歷史上的收支模式是一致的。在本季度，我們根據研發攤銷法支付了大約 2.2 億美元的第三次現金稅，我們繼續預計全年與研發相關的現金稅約為 10 億美元。

Through the end of Q3, we completed over $1 billion in share repurchases, and we're on track for an additional $500 million in the fourth quarter.

到第三季度末，我們完成了超過 10 億美元的股票回購，我們有望在第四季度再獲得 5 億美元。

Now moving to 2022 guidance. We have not changed our sales, earnings or cash outlooks. The foundation for our strong financial performance starts with the continued demand we're seeing for our products. We're increasing our expectation for book-to-bill again this quarter to greater than 1x, which is a significant improvement from our original expectation. Our team has done an outstanding job of serving as a trusted partner to our customers in winning new business.

現在轉向 2022 年指導。我們沒有改變我們的銷售、收益或現金前景。我們強勁的財務業績的基礎始於我們看到的對我們產品的持續需求。我們再次將本季度的賬面出貨率預期提高到 1 倍以上，這與我們最初的預期相比有了顯著改善。作為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴，我們的團隊在贏得新業務方面做得非常出色。

We're maintaining our original guidance for the top line. And based on year-to-date results, we continue to expect our full year sales to be around the low end of the range, consistent with the trends we described last quarter. Our full year outlook implies Q4 sales of roughly $9.6 billion, which represents excellent sequential and year-over-year growth. As we've noted throughout the year, we anticipate that Q4 will include a strong volume of material receipts across each of our 4 segments.

我們將維持我們對收入的原始指導。根據年初至今的結果，我們繼續預計我們的全年銷售額將在該範圍的低端附近，與我們上個季度描述的趨勢一致。我們的全年展望意味著第四季度銷售額約為 96 億美元，這代表了出色的環比和同比增長。正如我們全年所指出的那樣，我們預計第四季度將在我們的 4 個細分市場中包含大量的材料收據。

We're also maintaining our guidance for the bottom line, including segment OM rate and earnings per share. Given that 2022 sales volume will be around the low end of the range, we expect EPS to be near the low end of its range also.

我們還維持我們對底線的指導，包括細分市場的 OM 率和每股收益。鑑於 2022 年的銷量將在該區間的低端附近，我們預計每股收益也將接近其區間的低端。

Within our earnings outlook, we're accounting for continued year-to-date pressure on our marketable securities portfolio, offset by an anticipated federal tax rate benefit in Q4. Our marketable securities are down nearly $100 million in 2022, which represents about $0.50 of earnings per share pressure.

在我們的盈利前景中，我們正在考慮我們的有價證券投資組合今年迄今的持續壓力，這被第四季度預期的聯邦稅率收益所抵消。我們的有價證券在 2022 年下跌了近 1 億美元，這意味著每股收益壓力約為 0.50 美元。

But on the income tax line, we've lowered our effective rate expectation from 17% to 15.5%, reflecting progress in resolving matters related to historical filings in 1 of our businesses.

但在所得稅方面，我們已將有效稅率預期從 17% 下調至 15.5%，這反映了我們在解決與我們的一項業務中的歷史申報相關問題方面取得的進展。

We currently expect those matters to be concluded in Q4, resulting in about $0.50 of EPS benefit that offsets the marketable securities pressure. It's also possible that the tax item could be resolved in Q1, which would shift the benefit from 2022 into 2023.

我們目前預計這些事項將在第四季度結束，從而產生約 0.50 美元的每股收益收益，以抵消有價證券的壓力。稅收項目也有可能在第一季度得到解決，這將使福利從 2022 年轉移到 2023 年。

Moving to cash flows. While we remain optimistic that Congress will repeal or defer the R&D amortization law, we have focused our free cash flow guidance this year on the current tax laws scenario, which is unchanged from last quarter. If the law is deferred or repealed in Q4, we would expect a onetime spike in state taxes recognized in corporate unallocated expense, as well as a cash refund in 2023. Operationally, we're very pleased with the progress we made in cash flows in Q3, bolstering our confidence in the full year outlook.

轉向現金流。雖然我們仍然樂觀地認為國會將廢除或推遲研發攤銷法，但我們今年將自由現金流指導重點放在當前的稅法情景上，與上一季度相比沒有變化。如果該法律在第四季度被推遲或廢除，我們預計公司未分配費用中確認的州稅將一次性飆升，並在 2023 年獲得現金退款。在運營上，我們對我們在現金流方面取得的進展感到非常滿意第三季度，增強了我們對全年前景的信心。

Next, I'd like to take a few moments to describe the outlook for our pension plans. Most importantly, our current funded status remains strong and roughly unchanged year-to-date, and the cash flow implications of CAS changes over the next several years provide a modest benefit. The GAAP income statement effects I'll describe today are noncash in nature.

接下來，我想花點時間描述一下我們養老金計劃的前景。最重要的是，我們目前的資金狀況保持強勁，今年迄今大致未變，未來幾年 CAS 變化對現金流的影響提供了適度的收益。我今天要描述的 GAAP 損益表影響本質上是非現金的。

Year-to-date, our plans have experienced double-digit negative returns and discount rates have risen nearly 250 basis points. This combination of results will affect our GAAP earnings in future years. So I'd like to take a moment to discuss what our 2023 net pension income would look like under various scenarios.

年初至今，我們的計劃經歷了兩位數的負回報，貼現率上升了近 250 個基點。這種結果組合將影響我們未來幾年的 GAAP 收益。因此，我想花點時間討論一下我們 2023 年的養老金淨收入在各種情況下會是什麼樣子。

In January, we provided a sensitivity table in our earnings call deck related to changes in discount rates and asset returns on our nonservice FAS pension income. Based on the high level of volatility, the pension funds have experienced so far this year, I wanted to provide a grid of potential outcomes that also incorporates FAS service expense and CAS costs, which can be found on Slide 9 of our presentation today.

1 月份，我們在收益電話會議中提供了一張與非服務 FAS 養老金收入的貼現率和資產回報率變化相關的敏感性表。基於今年迄今為止養老基金經歷的高度波動，我想提供一個潛在結果網格，其中還包含 FAS 服務費用和 CAS 成本，可以在我們今天演示的幻燈片 9 中找到。

To help calibrate you to this slide, we've highlighted the 2023 pension estimates provided in January, which were based on expected 2022 asset returns of 7.5%, and a year-end discount rate of roughly 3%.

為了幫助您校準這張幻燈片，我們重點介紹了 1 月份提供的 2023 年養老金估算，該估算基於 7.5% 的預期 2022 年資產回報率和大約 3% 的年終折現率。

Given the year-to-date asset returns and discount rates at the end of Q3, we would expect significantly lower net FAS pension income in 2023, currently in the range of over $900 million less than our previous projection. As I've described, this lower net FAS pension income is noncash in nature. Over time, higher CAS recoveries would lead to modestly higher cash flow related to our pension.

鑑於第三季度末年初至今的資產回報率和貼現率，我們預計 2023 年 FAS 養老金淨收入將顯著降低，目前比我們之前的預測低 9 億多美元。正如我所描述的，這種較低的 FAS 養老金淨收入本質上是非現金的。隨著時間的推移，更高的 CAS 回收率將導致與我們的養老金相關的現金流適度增加。

I also wanted to provide additional insights on a high-level financial outlook for 2023. Note that this is predicated on our current expectations regarding the macro environment. As Kathy said, we expect strong demand to continue into 2023. In terms of hiring and retention trends, as I've now shared a few times, we've seen improvements since the beginning of 2022, and we anticipate that this will remain consistent next year.

我還想就 2023 年的高級財務前景提供更多見解。請注意，這是基於我們目前對宏觀環境的預期。正如凱西所說，我們預計強勁的需求將持續到 2023 年。就招聘和保留趨勢而言，正如我現在已經分享過幾次的那樣，自 2022 年初以來我們已經看到了改善，我們預計這將保持一致明年。

In the supply chain, where the environment has remained challenging with various delays and disruptions, we project that those challenges will continue throughout 2023. And with regard to inflation, which has been more persistent in '22 than originally expected, our projections incorporate gradual easing based on the latest industry labor and material indices.

在供應鏈中，由於各種延誤和中斷，環境仍然充滿挑戰，我們預計這些挑戰將持續到 2023 年。對於 22 年比最初預期更加持久的通貨膨脹，我們的預測包括逐步放鬆基於最新的行業勞動力和材料指數。

As Kathy described, we continue to expect our sales growth to accelerate next year, building on the momentum we've driven in 2022. In total, we expect sales growth in the 4% to 5% range. Based on our low $36 billion expectation for 2022, that would put us in a high $37 billion range for 2023.

正如凱西所描述的那樣，我們繼續預計明年我們的銷售增長將在我們在 2022 年推動的勢頭的基礎上加速。總體而言，我們預計銷售增長在 4% 至 5% 的範圍內。根據我們對 2022 年 360 億美元的低預期，這將使我們在 2023 年處於 370 億美元的高位。

Within our segments, we continue to expect Space to remain our fastest-growing business, with sales growing by another $1 billion over 2022. We expect strong sales growth in MS in the mid-single-digit range. And we anticipate sales at AS and DS to be flattish compared with their latest 2022 levels.

在我們的細分市場中，我們繼續預計 Space 仍將是我們增長最快的業務，銷售額將比 2022 年再增長 10 億美元。我們預計 MS 的銷售額將在中個位數範圍內實現強勁增長。我們預計 AS 和 DS 的銷售額將與 2022 年的最新水平相比持平。

We also expect to generate solid segment margin rates. As I've described, net EAC improvements are likely to be lighter than usual until inflation begins to normalize. So we'd expect our segment OM rate, which would otherwise have been projected in the high 11% range next year, to be between the mid-11% and the high 11%.

我們還預計將產生穩定的分部利潤率。正如我所描述的，在通貨膨脹開始正常化之前，淨 EAC 的改善可能比平時要輕。因此，我們預計我們的細分市場 OM 率（否則明年將在 11% 的高位範圍內）介於 11% 和 11% 的高位之間。

With regard to earnings, pension income will be a noncash headwind as quantified on Slide 9. But excluding pension, we expect our earnings per share to grow faster than sales in 2023, driven by continued strong execution and a lower share count.

在收益方面，養老金收入將是幻燈片 9 中量化的非現金逆風。但不包括養老金，我們預計在持續強勁的執行力和較低的股票數量的推動下，我們的每股收益在 2023 年的增長速度將快於銷售額。

We expect our tax rate to return to its more normal level of around 17% next year. And we continue to generate excellent cash flows with our prior 3-year cash outlook intact and another year of free cash flow growth expected in 2025.

我們預計明年我們的稅率將恢復到 17% 左右的更正常水平。我們繼續產生出色的現金流，我們之前的 3 年現金前景完好無損，預計 2025 年將再有一年的自由現金流增長。

We anticipate modest increases to our prior CapEx projections based on the strength of this year's new business wins and backlog growth, offset by corresponding improvements in operating cash flows.

我們預計，基於今年新業務勝利和積壓增長的實力，我們之前的資本支出預測將適度增加，但被運營現金流的相應改善所抵消。

We're very proud of the performance we've delivered this year in a continued challenging environment, and we're pleased with our projected growth acceleration in the second half of 2022 and in 2023. With our multiyear cash flow outlook intact, we're looking forward to continuing to create value for our customers and shareholders.

我們對今年在持續充滿挑戰的環境中取得的業績感到非常自豪，我們對 2022 年下半年和 2023 年預計的增長加速感到滿意。我們的多年現金流前景完好無損，我們期待繼續為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

And with that, we're ready for your questions.

有了這個，我們已經準備好回答你的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein 的台詞。

You talked about supply chain here, and that's obviously an issue across the board. Is it possible to look at the constraints you had from the supply chain and give us a sense of what the quarter and the year might have looked like had you not had those constraints? We're just trying to figure out, what sort of normal would be and how much is being held back?

你在這裡談到了供應鏈，這顯然是一個全面的問題。是否有可能查看您在供應鏈中遇到的限制，讓我們了解如果您沒有這些限制，季度和年度可能會是什麼樣子？我們只是想弄清楚，什麼樣的正常會是正常的，有多少會被阻止？

Doug, thanks for the question. Supply chain certainly is central to not only the remainder of this year, but next. So let me try to characterize, not particularly in numerical terms, but in more -- less quantitative terms, what we have been seeing.

道格，謝謝你的提問。供應鏈當然不僅是今年剩餘時間的核心，而且是明年的核心。所以讓我試著描述一下我們所看到的，不是特別用數字，而是用更多 - 更少數量的術語來描述。

It is in particular areas of the supply chain. So it is not widespread, but it's in areas that are important -- is component to our development programs, in particular, where we have seen delays that then result in impacts to those development efforts. And so it's the timing of sales not necessarily a deferment of sales, if you will.

尤其是供應鏈的特定領域。所以它並不普遍，但它在重要的領域 - 是我們發展計劃的組成部分，特別是我們已經看到延誤，然後導致對這些發展努力的影響。因此，如果您願意的話，銷售時機不一定是延遲銷售。

And this year, I would point to our 2022 original guidance, which was our expectations with either minimal or no supply chain disruption, because when we put that plan together late last year, we were not anticipating the level of supply chain disruption nor the duration of supply chain disruption that we've experienced.

今年，我將指出我們 2022 年的原始指導，這是我們對供應鏈中斷最小或沒有中斷的預期，因為當我們在去年年底制定該計劃時，我們沒有預料到供應鏈中斷的程度和持續時間我們經歷過的供應鏈中斷。

So throughout the year, we've pointed you now to the low end of our sales guidance. And I would say the best way to think quantitatively about the impact is, we would have expected to be on the high end of that guidance had we not experienced the supply chain disruption.

因此，在這一年中，我們現在向您指出了我們銷售指導的低端。我想說，從數量上考慮影響的最佳方式是，如果我們沒有經歷供應鏈中斷，我們會期望處於該指導的高端。

Now I do want to point out, and we've said it in the call that we expect these challenges to persist into 2023. So when I talk about timing, we do not expect all of what we experienced in 2022 to recover by the end of 2023. We expect these issues to be a bit sticky for the next year. We do expect them to resolve in the 18- to 24-month time frame.

現在我確實想指出，我們在電話會議中已經說過，我們預計這些挑戰將持續到 2023 年。因此，當我談到時機時，我們並不期望我們在 2022 年經歷的所有事情最終都會恢復2023 年。我們預計這些問題在明年會有點棘手。我們確實希望他們能夠在 18 到 24 個月的時間範圍內解決問題。

And as you go into 2023, you said in the outlook that Space is expected to be up by about $1 billion, but flat at Aeronautics. So can you help us understand what the drivers are in those 2 units that lead to somewhat different results? Obviously, you have huge backlog in Space. But just trying to understand those 2 trajectories?

當您進入 2023 年時，您在展望中說，太空預計將增加約 10 億美元，但與航空業持平。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解這兩個單元中導致結果有所不同的驅動因素是什麼？顯然，你在太空中有大量的積壓。但只是想了解這兩條軌跡？

Sure. Doug, I'm happy to shed some light on that. In both cases, those trends are consistent with what we've communicated previously, and the drivers are therefore consistent as well.

當然。道格，我很高興能對此有所了解。在這兩種情況下，這些趨勢與我們之前傳達的一致，因此驅動因素也是一致的。

Starting in AS, we project a stable 2023 given that there is anticipated growth in programs, including B-21, but then offset by modest declines in programs like the legacy programs in the HALE portfolio, Joint STARS, et cetera, modest decline in F-18 likely over the next couple of years. So again, continuation of trends we've been talking about for a while, and we continue to anticipate a growth recovery in 2024 for that business.

從 AS 開始，我們預計 2023 年將保持穩定，因為包括 B-21 在內的項目預計會增長，但隨後被 HALE 投資組合中的遺留項目、Joint STARS 等項目的適度下降所抵消，F 的適度下降-18 可能在未來幾年內。再說一次，我們一直在談論的趨勢的延續，我們繼續預計該業務將在 2024 年恢復增長。

In Space, the expansion and the growth opportunity is broad-based across multiple orbits, across multiple mission areas from missile tracking to ISR, growth in our supportive launch capabilities. It's really an outstanding segment of performance for us recently on the growth side. You see a growing market, but growth also in our market share.

在太空，擴展和增長機會是廣泛的，跨越多個軌道，跨越從導彈跟踪到 ISR 的多個任務領域，以及我們支持性發射能力的增長。對於我們最近在增長方面的表現來說，這確實是一個出色的部分。你會看到一個不斷增長的市場，但我們的市場份額也在增長。

Of course, GBSD is a contributor to that growth, but by no means the only one. Each of our divisions in that business is growing at a nice clip. So we're really pleased to be able to continue that outlook in '23.

當然，GBSD 是這種增長的一個貢獻者，但絕不是唯一的一個。我們在該業務中的每個部門都在以不錯的速度增長。所以我們真的很高興能夠在 23 年繼續保持這種前景。

And our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ronald Epstein。

Maybe just a question on capital deployment. You're going to be generating a lot of cash as you pointed that out. What's your plans to do with that into next year? Is there -- is it just share buybacks? Or is there some selected M&A? Or how are you thinking about that?

也許只是一個關於資本部署的問題。正如您指出的那樣，您將產生大量現金。到明年你有什麼計劃？有沒有——只是股票回購嗎？還是有一些選定的併購？或者你是怎麼想的？

So our -- plans for capital deployment are still aligned with what we've been saying all year, a balanced approach to capital deployment, still investing in supporting the growth of the business that we've experienced, which as we said, has been even more robust we anticipated coming into this year, not just because demand is higher, but we have been quite successful in competitive wins. So we'll continue to invest to be able to deliver that business successfully and generate the resulting earnings and cash flows from it.

因此，我們的資本部署計劃仍然與我們全年所說的保持一致，一種平衡的資本部署方法，仍然投資於支持我們所經歷的業務增長，正如我們所說，一直我們預計今年會更加強勁，不僅僅是因為需求更高，而且我們在競爭中取得了相當大的成功。因此，我們將繼續投資，以成功交付該業務並從中產生收益和現金流。

We also look at our dividend as a significant part of our capital deployment strategy. We have been consistently raising the dividend, this year another 10% increase. And so we will think favorably into next year about the dividend as a mechanism for returning capital to shareholders.

我們還將股息視為我們資本部署戰略的重要組成部分。我們一直在不斷提高股息，今年又增加了 10%。因此，我們將在明年積極考慮將股息作為向股東返還資本的機制。

The remaining piece is share repurchase, which I know was the core part of your question, and this year, we are on track for $1.5 billion of share repurchase. We plan to complete that. We do expect that to be slightly higher next year. As we look at our plans for capital deployment, we will share those with you in more specificity and what our guidance is for share count in January.

剩下的部分是股票回購，我知道這是你問題的核心部分，今年，我們有望進行 15 億美元的股票回購。我們計劃完成那個。我們確實預計明年會略高。當我們審視我們的資本部署計劃時，我們將更具體地與您分享這些計劃，以及我們對 1 月份股票數量的指導。

But safe to say, we are still on the mindset of returning 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders. And those 3 elements are the major ways in which we'll do that in 2023.

但可以肯定地說，我們仍然抱著將 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東的心態。這三個要素是我們在 2023 年實現這一目標的主要方式。

Got it. And then one follow-on, if I can. On the supply chain stuff that's been impacting the whole industry. Are you seeing DoD doing anything to help resolve it? Because some of the issues, it seems like you're running into it, everybody's running into it. Is DoD doing anything to help the industry?

知道了。如果可以的話，還有一個後續。關於影響整個行業的供應鏈問題。您是否看到國防部正在做任何事情來幫助解決它？因為有些問題，你好像遇到了，每個人都遇到了。國防部是否正在做任何事情來幫助這個行業？

Yes, they are. And I applaud the work that DoD is doing. I think they and we would agree that we need to continue to do more, particularly for medium and small businesses, who find themselves lower in the supply chain and even in circumstances where primes may have a cost-plus contract. They often have fixed prices that we need to adjust.

對，他們是。我對國防部所做的工作表示讚賞。我認為他們和我們會同意我們需要繼續做更多的事情，特別是對於中小型企業，他們發現自己在供應鏈中處於較低位置，甚至在 Prime 可能有成本加成合同的情況下。他們通常有我們需要調整的固定價格。

And so the government working with the prime to address that impact on small businesses, I outlined in my comments earlier on this call, is going to be important for the health of the Defense Industrial Base.

因此，我在本次電話會議早些時候的評論中概述了政府與總理合作解決對小企業的影響，這將對國防工業基地的健康發展很重要。

And we, as an industry, are doing our part. Certainly looking at those investments and managing some of our cash into the supply chain in ways that we have not historically done for the benefit of keeping those businesses healthy. And we've been doing that now for the last several years, really since the pandemic began, and I expect we will continue to do that.

作為一個行業，我們正在儘自己的一份力量。當然，為了保持這些業務的健康，我們以前所未有的方式審視這些投資並管理我們在供應鏈中的一些現金。過去幾年我們一直在這樣做，實際上是自大流行開始以來，我希望我們將繼續這樣做。

There are impacts, though, to large business as well. And so we are all in this together, as you point out, and we have work ahead of us. I am encouraged by Congress' comments that they expect that the '23 budget will start to address some of these challenges. And I'm hopeful that as the administration puts their 2024 budget together, they will continue on the path to identifying funding that would allow us to keep the Defense Industrial Base healthy.

不過，對大型企業也有影響。因此，正如您所指出的，我們都在一起，我們還有工作要做。我對國會的評論感到鼓舞，他們希望 '23 預算將開始解決其中一些挑戰。我希望隨著政府將 2024 年的預算放在一起，他們將繼續尋找資金，使我們能夠保持國防工業基地的健康。

And our next question is going to come from the line of Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Dave or Kathy, I'm not sure which. The fourth quarter recovery, I think you pointed out was going to come from receipt or timing of material receipts. I'm just curious, does that put you more at risk from supplier performance than your own internal performance, as you go into the fourth quarter? Is that the way to think about it?

戴夫或凱西，我不確定是哪個。第四季度的複蘇，我認為你指出將來自材料收據的收據或時間。我只是好奇，當您進入第四季度時，這是否會使您面臨供應商績效的風險比您自己的內部績效風險更大？是這樣想的嗎？

Myles, it's Dave. I'm happy to address that one. I think the way we look at it is, the really strong head count growth that we've had over the last quarter, in particular, but the last 6 months broadly, adding approximately 4% to our overall employee count or over 3,500 employees really shores up the labor visibility for labor-driven sales for 2022 and sets us off on a good track for '23.

邁爾斯，是戴夫。我很高興解決這個問題。我認為我們看待它的方式是，我們在上個季度的員工人數增長非常強勁，特別是在過去的 6 個月內，我們的員工總數增加了大約 4%，或者說真的超過了 3,500 名員工提高了 2022 年勞動力驅動型銷售的勞動力知名度，並使我們在 23 年走上良好的軌道。

And to your point, that means the supply base and its performance are key to the fourth quarter. With that said, we've had a year now of these more challenged supply chain conditions to become accustomed to where there are constraints and where there are not. And I give a lot of credit to our supply chain folks and our program teams, who are managing and mitigating those challenges every day. We think we've got that captured in our outlook for Q4.

就您而言，這意味著供應基礎及其表現是第四季度的關鍵。話雖如此，我們已經有一年的時間來應對這些更具挑戰性的供應鏈條件，以適應有限制和沒有限制的地方。我非常感謝我們的供應鏈人員和我們的項目團隊，他們每天都在管理和緩解這些挑戰。我們認為我們已經在第四季度的展望中抓住了這一點。

The pressures to date have pushed us towards the low end of the sales range for the full year, and we think that's appropriate caution as a result of the supply chain conditions, but feel that we've bounded it well in that range as we think about Q4 and the full year now.

迄今為止的壓力已將我們推向全年銷售範圍的低端，由於供應鏈狀況，我們認為這是適當的謹慎，但我們認為我們已將其很好地限制在該範圍內關於第四季度和現在的全年。

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up. Within Space, the negative EACs there. Is it -- is there any program-driven drivers to those negative EACs? Or is it purely cost and inflation dropping through across the portfolio?

好的。也許只是後續行動。在 Space 內，有負 EAC。是不是 - 這些負面 EAC 是否有任何程序驅動的驅動程序？還是純粹的成本和通貨膨脹在整個投資組合中下降？

There was not any 1 single program EAC that drove a material change this quarter in the Space business or any other across our portfolio. I think you're right to point to the broader market conditions. Costs are escalating at a level not expected a year or 2 ago. We're mitigating that very well across our business. But in fact, our latest expectations are factored into the EACs on our programs, and that did have a dampening effect, particularly in Space's margins in Q3.

沒有任何一個單一的 EAC 計劃在本季度推動太空業務或我們投資組合中的任何其他業務發生重大變化。我認為您指出更廣泛的市場狀況是正確的。成本正以一年或兩年前未預料到的水平上升。我們在整個業務中都很好地緩解了這一問題。但事實上，我們最新的預期已被納入我們項目的 EAC 中，這確實產生了抑製作用，尤其是在 Space 在第三季度的利潤率方面。

And our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

One of your peers has recently announced significant new share repurchase authorizations using debt. Considering the multiyear visibility in the cash flow, the strength in the balance sheet and the upward pressure on defense budgets, would you consider levering up an increased buyback similar to what the company did a decade ago?

您的一位同行最近宣布了重要的使用債務回購新股的授權。考慮到現金流的多年可見性、資產負債表的強勁以及國防預算的上行壓力，您是否會考慮像公司十年前那樣利用增加的回購？

Well, Kristine, I wouldn't rule it out as we sit here today, but I'm also not announcing any plans. We currently are executing our strategy, which is, as I said a few minutes ago, for a balanced capital deployment strategy, and we think that is the right thing for our company.

好吧，克里斯汀，今天我們坐在這裡，我不會排除它，但我也沒有宣布任何計劃。我們目前正在執行我們的戰略，正如我幾分鐘前所說，平衡資本部署戰略，我們認為這對我們公司來說是正確的。

Our foundation and fundamentals are incredibly strong. With the growth in our backlog, the ability to grow the business top line, we want to ensure that we're investing appropriately in that. It's the best thing for our shareholders in the long-term, we believe, as well as our customers who need this capability and capacity that we're delivering. So that remains our top priority.

我們的基礎和基本面非常強大。隨著我們積壓的增長，業務收入增長的能力，我們希望確保我們在這方面進行適當的投資。我們相信，從長遠來看，這對我們的股東以及需要我們提供的這種能力和能力的客戶來說都是最好的。所以這仍然是我們的首要任務。

And we, as I have said, are committed to return 100% of our free cash flow this year and that to our shareholders, and we'll do that in the balance of dividends and share repurchase. But as you know, we have used ASRs in the past, and we have looked at share repurchase, and we'll continue to do that on a regular basis and keep you apprised of any change in our plan.

正如我所說，我們承諾今年將 100% 的自由現金流返還給我們的股東，我們將在股息和股票回購的平衡中做到這一點。但如您所知，我們過去曾使用過 ASR，我們已經研究過股票回購，我們將繼續定期這樣做，並讓您了解我們計劃的任何變化。

And if I could do a follow-up. You mentioned that you expect supply chain issues to persist into 2023. Can you provide more color on what's embedded in your 2023 revenue outlook of 4% to 5%? Where are the risks and opportunities to that?

如果我能做一個跟進。您提到您預計供應鏈問題將持續到 2023 年。您能否就 2023 年 4% 至 5% 的收入前景提供更多信息？這樣做的風險和機會在哪裡？

So in the -- earlier in the call, we outlined 3 major elements that we are monitoring closely. The first is our own labor. And we have talked about that throughout this year as being a bit of a headwind for us in the first half of the year. We were not adding headcount and retaining headcount at the level we needed to fuel our growth. And that started to turn the corner in the summer. And you've seen in the third quarter, really robust results in net headcount growth, as Dave outlined, with nearly 3,000 adds.

因此，在電話會議的早些時候，我們概述了我們正在密切監控的 3 個主要元素。首先是我們自己的勞動。今年上半年，我們一直在談論這對我們來說有點逆風。我們沒有在推動增長所需的水平上增加和保留員工人數。這在夏天開始出現轉機。正如戴夫所概述的那樣，您在第三季度看到的淨員工人數增長非常強勁，增加了近 3,000 人。

We are this environment that we're experiencing currently, not necessarily nearly 3,000 adds in a quarter, but this hiring and retention environment is what persisted into 2023. There could be some opportunity there. As you all know certain firms are reducing their headcount or at least their hiring. So ER, as I noted, seen that in certain areas, the labor market is starting to soften. But we aren't counting on that being a significant tailwind to us next year. We're looking at it continuing about like we see it today.

我們是目前正在經歷的這種環境，不一定在一個季度增加近 3,000 人，但這種招聘和保留環境一直持續到 2023 年。那裡可能會有一些機會。眾所周知，某些公司正在裁員或至少裁員。因此，正如我所指出的，ER 看到在某些領域，勞動力市場開始走軟。但我們並不指望明年這對我們來說是一個重要的順風。我們正在看它繼續像我們今天看到的那樣。

In supply chain, as we noted, we do expect the disruption that we now see in the supply chain to have lingering effects into 2023. And we've done our best to capture those in what we've now reflected as our updated guidance. But if they were to get worse, we certainly would have some downside risk. I don't expect them to get significantly better. So unlike labor, I would say that one is more of a risk.

正如我們所指出的，在供應鏈中，我們確實預計我們現在在供應鏈中看到的中斷影響將持續到 2023 年。我們已經盡最大努力在我們現在反映的更新指南中捕捉到這些影響。但如果情況變得更糟，我們肯定會有一些下行風險。我不指望他們會變得更好。因此，與勞動力不同，我會說一個風險更大。

And then in the third area of inflation, we are tying to the indices as we look forward. We certainly have now captured the inflationary pressures that some of what we indicated was the downside on segment operating margin rates that we saw in the third quarter of this year. And your guess is as good as mine as to, when this inflation really start to modulate. So we're using the indices as our best way to get our arms around that. I don't see that as a big opportunity or risk. I think that one we probably have hedged pretty well, but we're monitoring it, as I said.

然後在通脹的第三個領域，我們在展望未來時與指數掛鉤。我們現在當然已經捕捉到通脹壓力，我們指出的一些因素是我們在今年第三季度看到的部門營業利潤率下降。當這種通貨膨脹真正開始調節時，你的猜測和我的猜測一樣好。因此，我們使用索引作為最好的方法來解決這個問題。我不認為這是一個巨大的機會或風險。我認為我們可能已經很好地對沖了這一點，但正如我所說，我們正在對其進行監控。

So that was a lot of context. But I think it's important because we did put a 2023 outlook in front of you, even at this early stage, which we often do, but I will say this is a more volatile time than we often experience going into the following year.

所以這是很多背景。但我認為這很重要，因為我們確實將 2023 年的前景擺在你面前，即使是在我們經常這樣做的早期階段，但我會說這是一個比我們進入下一年經常經歷的更不穩定的時期。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Stallard with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Rob Stallard。

Dave, I'm going to start with you. On the 2023 margin guidance, are you expecting any major changes in the segments versus where they're likely to end up at the end of this year?

戴夫，我要從你開始。在 2023 年的利潤率指導中，您是否預計這些細分市場會發生重大變化，而不是它們可能在今年年底結束？

Thanks for the question, Rob. We do not anticipate meaningful movements in the segments as we look at '23. Let's talk in aggregate first, and then I'll give you some color on the segments.

謝謝你的問題，羅布。當我們查看 '23 時，我們預計這些細分市場不會出現有意義的變動。我們先綜合來說一下，然後我給你一些段上的顏色。

As you'll recall, our segment OM rate was in the 12% range in the first half of this year. We talked on the call today about the fact that, that will fluctuate a bit from quarter-to-quarter. We worked through some of -- temporal challenges that we and most other industries face these days around inflation and supply chain and such, and noted some of that in the Q3 result.

您會記得，我們的細分市場 OM 率在今年上半年處於 12% 的範圍內。我們今天在電話會議上談到了這樣一個事實，即每個季度都會有一些波動。我們解決了我們和大多數其他行業這些天在通貨膨脹和供應鍊等方面面臨的一些暫時性挑戰，並在第三季度的結果中註意到了其中的一些。

Year-to-date, we're in that guidance range we've provided for the full year. As we talk about next year, we noted mid- to high 11% or our current expectation. Think of that as in the range of 20 basis points lower next year than we're seeing this year. And at a business level, what I'd highlight is in a few of the areas where we had unique upside in the first half of the year, that's where we would expect that to normalize and create some of the lower margin profile next year.

年初至今，我們處於全年提供的指導範圍內。當我們談到明年時，我們注意到 11% 的中高水平或我們目前的預期。可以把它想像成明年比我們今年看到的低 20 個基點。在業務層面，我要強調的是在今年上半年我們有獨特優勢的幾個領域，這就是我們預計明年將正常化並創造一些較低利潤率的領域。

I'd note, AS had a land sale in the second quarter. So you can think of that as 20, 30 basis points of margin rate pressure on a year-over-year comp basis. In Space, we think the volume of new development work they've continued to add and the pressure that's put on their margin this year is again a good reflector of what you'd be likely to see next year in Space. Mission Systems and Defense continues to perform well on the margin rate side, and we don't anticipate meaningful movement there. MS did have some strong upside in the first half. So we'll look to see what they can continue to deliver in '23.

我注意到，AS 在第二季度進行了土地出售。因此，您可以將其視為 20 到 30 個基點的保證金率壓力（同比）。在太空中，我們認為他們繼續增加的新開發工作量以及今年對其利潤施加的壓力再次很好地反映了您明年在太空中可能會看到的情況。 Mission Systems and Defense 在利潤率方面繼續表現良好，我們預計不會有有意義的變動。 MS在上半年確實有一些強勁的上漲空間。因此，我們將看看他們可以在 23 年繼續提供什麼。

Again, no meaningful movements across the board. I'd just adjust for some of those comparability items in '23 to get a segment level view.

同樣，沒有任何有意義的動作。我只是針對 23 年的一些可比性項目進行調整，以獲得細分級別的視圖。

That's great. Very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up for Kathy on the B-21. We're looking forward to the rollout in December. But I was wondering, how the numbers on the program are progressing. Practically, you're making good progress. But given it's a fixed price program with inflation, how are the margins on this program going?

那太棒了。非常有幫助。然後只是對凱西在 B-21 上的快速跟進。我們期待在 12 月推出。但我想知道，程序上的數字是如何進展的。實際上，你正在取得良好的進展。但鑑於這是一個有通貨膨脹的固定價格計劃，該計劃的利潤如何？

Yes, Rob, thanks for the question. We are also very excited about the rollout on December 2, but we are keeping our focus on the performance of the program. So while it's important for us to celebrate milestones as they come. It's also long-term program, as you suggest. And so we are working that program as we are all to each quarter reflect what we know about the current environment and our projections going forward.

是的，Rob，謝謝你的提問。我們也對 12 月 2 日的推出感到非常興奮，但我們仍將重點放在該計劃的表現上。因此，雖然重要的是我們要慶祝里程碑的到來。正如您所建議的，這也是長期計劃。因此，我們正在開展該計劃，因為我們每個季度都反映了我們對當前環境的了解以及我們對未來的預測。

And as we outlined earlier this year, we spent a good bit of time actually talking through the B-21 and how we were keeping our assumptions updated. That continues to hold true. And so there's nothing to report to you in any material change on our outlook for the profitability on that program.

正如我們今年早些時候概述的那樣，我們花了很多時間實際討論 B-21 以及我們如何保持我們的假設更新。這仍然適用。因此，我們對該計劃的盈利前景的任何重大變化都無需向您報告。

Our next question comes from the line Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

You talked about flattish Defense sales next year. Can you give us some of the puts and takes in the business with supply chain? Does that continue to linger, and what's going on in the services side? And maybe incremental opportunities with programs, such as IBCS and missiles, and how you do think about Europe playing into that as well?

你談到了明年國防銷售持平。你能給我們一些供應鏈業務的投入和投入嗎？這種情況會繼續存在嗎？服務方面發生了什麼？也許還有更多的項目機會，比如 IBCS 和導彈，你如何看待歐洲也參與其中？

Thanks, Sheila. Certainly, the disruption that we're talking about does hit short-cycle businesses a little more than long cycle. And so there is a bit of that in Defense, but really, it's more about the portfolio shift that we are making. One is the growth that we're seeing in munitions and particularly that demand, which we expect to grow even more with the conflict in Ukraine. But we also see IBCS as a centerpiece of that growth, both domestically and internationally.

謝謝，希拉。當然，我們正在談論的中斷確實對短週期業務的影響比對長周期的影響更大。所以國防領域也有一些這樣的東西，但實際上，更多的是關於我們正在做出的投資組合轉變。一是我們在彈藥方面看到的增長，特別是這種需求，我們預計隨著烏克蘭的衝突，這種需求會進一步增長。但我們也將 IBCS 視為國內和國際增長的核心。

I noted in my comments that we have gotten significantly more increased interest in demand coming out of Europe on IBCS over the last several months. So those are growth drivers. But those are offset by retirements of legacy platforms that we sustain out of the Defense Systems sector. And we've been talking about those as headwinds to AS for a while. But as those programs are retired, those platforms sustainment impacts are being felt in DS. So that would be programs like Joint STARS and Global Hawk.

我在評論中指出，在過去幾個月中，我們對來自歐洲的 IBCS 需求的興趣顯著增加。所以這些都是增長的驅動力。但這些都被我們在國防系統領域維持的遺留平台的退役所抵消。一段時間以來，我們一直在談論這些作為 AS 的逆風。但隨著這些程序的退役，DS 中感受到了這些平台的持續影響。因此，這將是像 Joint STARS 和 Global Hawk 這樣的項目。

And our next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

Dave, in terms of your margin guidance next year, how much lower are you expecting EACs to be? Because this year, they're running so far like $150 million lower than last year, and yet you're getting help in AS, but the margin looks like it's going to turn out to be similar to where it was last year.

戴夫，就您明年的利潤率指導而言，您預計 EAC 會低多少？因為今年，他們的運營成本比去年低了 1.5 億美元，但你在 AS 中得到了幫助，但利潤率看起來會與去年相似。

Sure. George, as you know, we don't have a specific dollar for dollar expectation of net EACs on any one program or in fact, in aggregate, going into a typical year. What we do get a sense for is kind of trends in aggregate volume.

當然。喬治，如您所知，我們對任何一個項目的淨 EAC 沒有具體的美元預期，或者事實上，總體而言，進入一個典型的年份。我們確實感覺到的是總量的趨勢。

And in 2021, for example, we had a unique trend associated with the benefit in our rates from the pension benefit. In 2022, we've had a couple of upside items, as you mentioned, in AS. But broadly speaking, the pressures that we've noted from the macro environment this year.

例如，在 2021 年，我們有一個獨特的趨勢，與我們的養老金福利費率相關。正如您所提到的，在 2022 年，我們在 AS 中有幾個上漲項目。但從廣義上講，我們從今年的宏觀環境中註意到了壓力。

And what I'd characterize '23 as is more of a continuation of some of those macro pressures, as Kathy outlined nicely earlier in the supply chain and the inflationary environment. And so we'd anticipate what I'd characterize as a continuation of the lower net EAC trend in '23 based on what we know today. But I wouldn't put too fine of a point on the dollar amount today. We'll give you more insights on that as we get into the January guidance call.

正如凱西早些時候在供應鍊和通脹環境中很好地概述的那樣，我將 23 年描述為更多宏觀壓力的延續。因此，根據我們今天所知道的情況，我們預計 23 年淨 EAC 較低趨勢的延續。但我不會對今天的美元金額過於重視。當我們進入 1 月份的指導電話會議時，我們將為您提供更多的見解。

Yes, I'm just looking at the fact that this year's segment margin is likely to be similar to last year's and yet EACs are running already $150 million below where they were last year. So maybe they'll be down $200 million for the year. And so you got to have a pretty sizable, maybe a bigger drop next year. I mean, otherwise, why wouldn't the margin be similar to the high 11% like you're seeing this year?

是的，我只是看到今年的細分市場利潤率可能與去年相似，但 EAC 的運營成本已經比去年低 1.5 億美元。因此，他們今年可能會減少 2 億美元。所以你必須有一個相當大的下降，明年可能會有更大的下降。我的意思是，否則，為什麼利潤率不會像你今年看到的那樣高 11%？

That high 11% margin rate is predicated on a certain volume of both program performance and net EAC benefits. We're projecting a wider range currently in the mid-11s to the high 11s, because it's tough to project, as Kathy noted earlier, with too much specificity given the macro environment we're in today.

11% 的高利潤率取決於一定數量的計劃績效和 EAC 淨收益。我們正在預測目前在 11 年代中期到 11 年代高位的更廣泛範圍，因為正如凱西之前指出的那樣，鑑於我們今天所處的宏觀環境，過於具體化很難預測。

Our program performance continues to be exceptional. But we think today, the appropriate outlook is about 20 basis points lower margin rate next year with continuation of -- kind of the second half trends we're seeing this year in net EACs. I think that's about as specific as we can be at this point in the process, George.

我們的計劃表現仍然非常出色。但我們今天認為，適當的前景是明年的保證金率降低約 20 個基點，並延續我們今年在淨 EAC 中看到的下半年趨勢。喬治，我認為這是我們在這個過程中所能做到的最具體的。

Okay. And then one quick one. How much contribution will GBSD, and NGI beat to the $1 billion growth that you're talking about in the Space in '23?

好的。然後一個快速的。 GBSD 和 NGI 對 23 年你所說的 10 億美元的增長貢獻有多大？

We project GBSD to be a little less than half of that growth. NGI will also be a contributor, but then there are a number of other programs. The wins we've talked about this year at Space Development Agency, continued growth in the GEM63 portfolio with the Amazon Kuiper expansion there. There are a number of drivers of growth across our Space portfolio, both national security, civilian and otherwise.

我們預計 GBSD 將略低於該增長的一半。 NGI 也將成為貢獻者，但還有許多其他程序。我們今年在 Space Development Agency 談到的勝利，GEM63 產品組合的持續增長以及 Amazon Kuiper 的擴張。我們的太空產品組合有許多增長動力，包括國家安全、民用和其他方面。

And our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Kathy and Dave, I know you are just in the early stages of 2023, so sorry to bring up 2024, but you guys have talked about cash flow target for that year and also segment margin, I think, in the 12% range. Are you still on target for reaching those goals?

凱西和戴夫，我知道你們正處於 2023 年的早期階段，很抱歉提到 2024 年，但你們已經談到了那一年的現金流目標以及細分利潤率，我認為，在 12% 的範圍內。你還在為實現這些目標而努力嗎？

Sure. I can touch on that. As we noted today, we've continued to reaffirm our multiyear cash flow outlook. For '23, that's intact, for '24 as well. And as we noted on the call today, we expect another growth year in 2025. We'll be more specific in quantifying that on our January call when we'll do our typical update of the multiyear quantified free cash flow outlook.

當然。我可以談到這一點。正如我們今天所指出的，我們繼續重申我們的多年現金流展望。對於'23，這是完整的，對於'24也是如此。正如我們在今天的電話會議上指出的那樣，我們預計 2025 年將是另一個增長年。我們將在 1 月份的電話會議上更具體地量化這一點，屆時我們將對多年量化自由現金流前景進行典型更新。

And so continued strength in the expected returns from the business. We'll update the specific numbers there based on Section 174 legislation status in January. On the margin rate side, as we noted, we were operating at that 12% level in the first half of this year. Businesses continued to execute well and mitigate broader macroeconomic challenges.

因此，業務的預期回報持續強勁。我們將在 1 月份根據第 174 條的立法狀態更新那裡的具體數字。正如我們所指出的，在保證金率方面，我們在今年上半年以 12% 的水平運營。企業繼續表現良好並緩解更廣泛的宏觀經濟挑戰。

We're anticipating about that 20 basis points of decline based on what we currently see in 2023. We do anticipate longer-term recovery. It's tough at this stage of the game to project whether that recovery back to the high 11s and the 12% level occurs as soon as 2024 or whether it's subsequent to that, a lot of that will depend on the pace of recovering these macroeconomic factors.

根據我們目前在 2023 年看到的情況，我們預計將下降 20 個基點。我們確實預計長期復蘇。在遊戲的這個階段，很難預測到 2024 年或之後會恢復到 11 年代的高位和 12% 的水平，這在很大程度上取決於這些宏觀經濟因素的恢復速度。

But again, critically, the sales growth expansion we see next year, the acceleration of the 4% to 5% range, multiyear free cash flow guidance remaining intact, I think, is indicative of the kind of economic value we're delivering even in this environment.

但同樣重要的是，我們明年看到的銷售增長擴張、4% 至 5% 範圍的加速、多年自由現金流指導保持不變，我認為，這表明我們即使在這種環境。

Great. And just as a quick follow-up, with the supply chain challenges lingering into 2023 and probably lessening through the year, should we expect a similar distribution of sales throughout the year in '23 that we've seen in '22 in terms of the percentage per quarter?

偉大的。作為快速跟進，隨著供應鏈挑戰持續到 2023 年並且可能在全年減少，我們是否應該期望 23 年全年的銷售額分佈與我們在 22 年看到的類似每季度百分比？

It's premature for me to give you a percentage by quarter at this stage. We're doing our best to give you our latest insights into the full year outlook. Some of that quarterly profile ends up being determined by the timing of material receipts on large programs and across the business space. So give us a few more months to give you a quarterly profile. We'll certainly do so. We'll give you more insights on that in January as we typically do.

在這個階段，我現在按季度給你一個百分比還為時過早。我們正在盡最大努力為您提供有關全年展望的最新見解。其中一些季度概況最終取決於大型項目和整個業務領域的材料接收時間。所以再給我們幾個月的時間給你一個季度的簡介。我們一定會這樣做的。像往常一樣，我們將在一月份為您提供更多有關這方面的見解。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ken Herbert。

Kathy, relative to -- or Dave, relative to the initial expectations in the year, you've seen stronger bookings that you've called out as we've gone through the year. And I'm just wondering, if you can parse that out a little bit. I know you called out share gains, but how much of that has been share gains versus maybe an acceleration or timing around contracts? And how much should we sort of read through or think about maybe an expanded opportunity set for you heading into '23 based on some of the stronger bookings this year?

凱西，相對於 - 或戴夫，相對於今年的最初預期，你已經看到在我們度過這一年的過程中，你已經提出了更強勁的預訂。我只是想知道，如果你能稍微分析一下。我知道你提到了股票收益，但其中有多少是股票收益與合同的加速或時間安排相比？基於今年一些更強勁的預訂，我們應該閱讀或考慮多少可能為您進入 23 年的擴展機會？

Thanks for the question. When we look at the portfolio, it has been broad-based in terms of the improvement that we've seen in our expectations for book-to-bill. All 4 segments now projecting over 1. And it has been most pronounced in Space, where we've called out some specific opportunities that were competitive. So to your point, taking share that we were able to secure that we may not have anticipated winning as many of those as we started the year as we ultimately have.

謝謝你的問題。當我們查看投資組合時，就我們對賬面到賬單的預期所看到的改進而言，它具有廣泛的基礎。現在所有 4 個細分市場都超過 1。它在太空中最為明顯，我們在太空中提出了一些具有競爭力的特定機會。因此，就您而言，分享我們能夠確保我們可能沒有預料到會贏得像我們最終獲得的那樣多的勝利。

We feel that we are in a good position with backlog in each of the businesses going into 2023, supporting the accelerated growth that we've laid out in our outlook for next year. We don't expect that our book-to-bill next year will be as robust as it was this year, because we do have quite a bit of backlog that we will be carrying into the year, and the opportunities that is not as strong in 2023, but we do see then that picking up again in '24 and '25.

我們認為，進入 2023 年的每項業務的積壓工作都處於有利地位，支持我們在明年展望中提出的加速增長。我們預計明年的訂單出貨量不會像今年一樣強勁，因為我們確實有相當多的積壓訂單將持續到今年，而且機會並不那麼強大在 2023 年，但我們確實看到在 24 和 25 年再次回升。

So I would tell you, we tend not to look at awards on a single year basis and calculate book-to-bill only on a single year. We look at it on a running basis, and our system is strong, as an aggregate over the last 3 years, we expect that to continue well into the future.

所以我要告訴你，我們傾向於不以一年為基礎查看獎項，而只計算一年的賬面比。我們在運行的基礎上查看它，我們的系統很強大，作為過去 3 年的總體，我們預計這種情況將持續到未來。

That's helpful. And as you think about the strength -- the comment you just made on strength in the '24, would that be more on the Space side within Space or maybe more on the Launch and Missile side, or any color on that would be helpful?

這很有幫助。當你想到力量——你剛剛在 24 年對力量發表的評論時，這會更多地出現在 Space 中的 Space 方面，還是更多地出現在 Launch 和 Missile 方面，或者任何顏色都會有幫助？

For Space, we've seen broad-based opportunities across both Launch and Missiles as well as our Space segment, and we expect that to continue, there are multiple programs that will be selected for next phase and be awarded in that time frame in both elements of our Space business.

對於太空，我們已經在發射和導彈以及我們的太空部門看到了廣泛的機會，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去，將有多個項目將被選入下一階段，並在該時間範圍內授予兩個項目我們太空業務的要素。

And our next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Scott Deuschle。

Anything you can say about the equipment sales that impacted Q3 free cash flow? Is that similar in nature to the large equipment sales that AS booked a while back?

關於影響第三季度自由現金流的設備銷售，您有什麼想說的嗎？這與 AS 不久前預訂的大型設備銷售性質相似嗎？

It is actually cash flow associated with that equipment sale booked a while back. So it is the timing of payments driving a particular cash receipt this quarter, but it is fully associated with the equipment sale you noted from the past.

它實際上是與不久前預訂的設備銷售相關的現金流量。因此，這是推動本季度特定現金收入的付款時間，但它與您過去注意到的設備銷售完全相關。

Okay. Got it. And then, Kathy, just on NGI. Is it reasonable to think that you might be able to offer some cost savings to your customer there, if there's product commonality between the Interceptor and then the GBSD booster? And would you potentially design for commonality there in order to drive that cost benefit to the customer?

好的。知道了。然後，凱西，就在 NGI 上。如果 Interceptor 和 GBSD 助推器之間存在產品通用性，那麼認為您可以為那裡的客戶節省一些成本是否合理？您是否會為那裡的通用性進行設計，以便為客戶帶來成本效益？

Well, it's an excellent question. And because we're in an active competition, I won't speak too much about our approach. But what I would say is that we constantly look for ways to deliver more value to the customer based on a broad set of capabilities, both in the case of Interceptors as well as our Missile Defense portfolio, which I've noted, has been growing, and we expect it to continue to grow.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題。而且因為我們處於激烈的競爭中，所以我不會過多地談論我們的方法。但我想說的是，我們一直在尋找基於廣泛功能為客戶提供更多價值的方法，無論是在攔截器的情況下，還是我們的導彈防禦產品組合，我已經註意到，一直在增長，我們預計它會繼續增長。

Taking a full mission understanding of the threat environment as it evolves and bringing it back into our product development strategy is key across the entire portfolio, but NGI will also benefit from that level of expertise that we have with the threat, the solution elements and submission.

在威脅環境的演變過程中全面了解威脅環境並將其重新納入我們的產品開發戰略是整個產品組合的關鍵，但 NGI 也將受益於我們在威脅、解決方案元素和提交方面所擁有的專業水平.

And our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Kathy, F-35 cuts across a number of your businesses. I think you've talked about it being 10% of sales in total. Can you give us an idea of what you've got baked in for F-35 in total in 2023 from a -- I assume, it's declining a bit with DAS rolling off and so on? But can you give us an idea of what's baked in for F-35 in '23? And whether as you look beyond '23, F-35 stabilizes or maybe even begins to grow again?

凱西，F-35 涉及您的許多業務。我想你已經說過它佔總銷售額的 10%。您能否告訴我們您在 2023 年為 F-35 總共投入了什麼——我認為，隨著 DAS 的下降等等，它正在下降一點？但是你能告訴我們 23 年 F-35 的特點嗎？ 23 年以後，F-35 是否會穩定下來，甚至可能再次開始增長？

Well, David, actually, when we look across the entirety of the company, F-35 is pretty flat going into 2023. So we have a lot of moving parts, as you indicated. In Aerospace, we have volume that is fairly consistent in our case. Because remember, we build a couple of years, about 18 months ahead of Lockheed Martin. And so we are maxing out at our limitations of capacity for building center fuselages. And so that project flattish into 2023, as Dave noted earlier.

好吧，大衛，實際上，當我們縱觀整個公司時，F-35 進入 2023 年的情況相當平淡。所以正如你所指出的，我們有很多活動部件。在航空航天領域，我們的數量相當一致。因為請記住，我們建造了幾年，比洛克希德馬丁公司提前了大約 18 個月。因此，我們正在最大限度地利用我們建造中心機身的能力限制。正如戴夫之前指出的那樣，該項目在 2023 年將持平。

But in our Mission Systems side of the business, while we have DAS, which is being replaced with new product insertion. We're also working on new products insertion in the other elements of the portfolio. So we have some development work going on in Block 4 that continues to grow and production there, too, is fairly stable as we look out over this time period and sustainment is growing.

但在我們的任務系統業務方面，我們有 DAS，它正在被新產品插入所取代。我們還致力於在產品組合的其他元素中插入新產品。因此，我們在 Block 4 中進行了一些開發工作，這些工作繼續增長，那裡的生產也相當穩定，因為我們在這段時間內觀察到，維護也在增長。

So when you take all of those elements across the entirety of our portfolio, F-35 is pretty flat going into 2023, and we expect to be relatively flat going into 2024, maybe a little bit of upside to that.

因此，當您將所有這些元素納入我們整個產品組合時，F-35 到 2023 年將相當平穩，我們預計到 2024 年將相對平穩，可能會有一點上行空間。

All right. Perfect. That's very helpful. And then on the -- back on the margin guide for next year. Would you characterize the drop, I guess, before I think we were all thinking kind of flattish next year and then maybe improving a bit in '24. Would you characterize the lower guide, is that more mix related? Maybe your lower margin programs are accelerating faster than you had expected? Or is this inflation related or some combination of both?

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。然後 - 回到明年的保證金指南。我想，在我認為我們明年都在考慮有點平淡，然後可能會在 24 年有所改善之前，你會描述下降的特徵嗎？您是否會描述較低的指南，這與混合更多相關嗎？也許您的低利潤計劃的加速速度比您預期的要快？或者這種通貨膨脹與通貨膨脹有關還是兩者兼而有之？

I would say, it's a combination of all of those factors, but leaning more towards the macro factors. This is a unique environment that we're all operating in these days, and we're eyes wide open to the continuation of a lot of those pressures in 2023. And that's why we think it's not a huge impact, but call it, 20 basis points compared to the high levels we've been operating at in 2022.

我想說，這是所有這些因素的結合，但更傾向於宏觀因素。這是我們現在都在運作的獨特環境，我們對 2023 年持續存在的許多這些壓力睜大眼睛。這就是為什麼我們認為這不是一個巨大的影響，但稱之為 20與我們在 2022 年的高水平相比。

I think importantly, as you get down to the earnings per share line, excluding the noncash pension element of it, we anticipate EPS growth faster than even the 4% to 5% accelerated sales growth. So we're managing through these times, I think, particularly well when you think about the pace of EPS acceleration as well.

我認為重要的是，當你深入到每股收益線時，不包括其中的非現金養老金元素，我們預計每股收益的增長速度甚至超過 4% 到 5% 的加速銷售增長。因此，我認為，當您考慮 EPS 加速的步伐時，我們正在管理這些時期。

All right. We're going to have to leave it there. I will give one more.

好的。我們將不得不把它留在那裡。我再給一個。

All right. We'll leave it there. I'll turn it over to Kathy for closing remarks.

好的。我們會把它留在那裡。我會把它交給 Kathy 做閉幕詞。

Thanks, Todd. Look, before concluding today's call, I'd just like to take a moment to thank our entire team for another strong quarter in what we have appropriately characterized this challenging macroeconomic time. So business fundamentals for Northrop Grumman remain incredibly strong, and that's due to the work of this entire team.

謝謝，托德。看，在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想花一點時間感謝我們的整個團隊在我們恰當地描述了這個充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟時期的另一個強勁季度。因此，諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的業務基礎仍然非常強勁，這要歸功於整個團隊的工作。

But I want to especially think 1 of our team members, Mary Petryszyn, who will be retiring from Northrop Grumman in January. She has provided 10 years of outstanding service to our company, most recently as the Defense Systems front, and we wish her the very best.

但我想特別想一想我們的團隊成員之一，Mary Petryszyn，她將於 1 月份從諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司退休。她為我們公司提供了 10 年的出色服務，最近一次是擔任國防系統前線，我們祝愿她一切順利。

On October 17, I'm sure you all noted that Roshan Roeder became our new President of Defense Systems. She is an experienced executive in our company. I'm very confident in her ability to take the business to the next level, and I look forward to introducing her to many of you.

10 月 17 日，我相信大家都注意到 Roshan Roeder 成為了我們的新任國防系統總裁。她是我們公司一位經驗豐富的高管。我對她將業務提升到新水平的能力非常有信心，我期待著將她介紹給你們中的許多人。

So thank you for joining our call today. I expect to see many of you in the coming months. But for those, I don't see, let me wish you a healthy and happy holiday season, and we look forward to talking to you in January.

因此，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我希望在接下來的幾個月裡見到你們中的許多人。但對於那些，我不明白，讓我祝你假期健康快樂，我們期待在一月份與你交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. Have a great day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天。