諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司 2024 年第四季度電話會議討論了技術問題,提供了 2025 年的前瞻性陳述,並強調了該年度強勁的財務業績。該公司計劃專注於技術差異化、國際成長和效率提升。他們報告稱,關鍵領域的積壓訂單、銷售成長和利潤率擴大均創下了紀錄。
諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司對未來的成長機會持樂觀態度,包括防空和飛彈防禦、太空計劃和國際銷售。該公司已做好長期成功的準備,並將繼續致力於為國家安全提供尖端技術。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's fourth quarter 2024 conference call.
女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第四季電話會議。
Today's call is being recorded.
今天的通話正在錄音。
My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today.
我叫喬許 (Josh),今天我將擔任您的接線生。
(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations.
(操作員指示)現在,我想將電話轉給主持人、投資者關係副總裁托德·恩斯特先生。
Mr. Ernst, please proceed.
恩斯特先生,請繼續。
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's fourth quarter 2024 conference call.
謝謝,喬希,大家早安,歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第四季電話會議。
Before we start, due to technical issues with our provider, we have provided new dial-in information for the analysts, so please use that to dial into the call.
在我們開始之前,由於我們的提供者出現技術問題,我們為分析師提供了新的撥入訊息,因此請使用該資訊撥入電話。
Moving on, matters discussed today on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2025 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call.
接下來,今天電話會議上討論的問題,包括 2025 年及以後的指導和展望,反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用的信息做出的判斷。
They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws.
它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港規定構成前瞻性陳述。
Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings.
前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。
These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.
這些風險和不確定性可能會導致公司實際業績產生重大差異。
Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.
今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 結果相協調的非 GAAP 財務指標。
In addition, we will refer to a presentation that is posted to our Investor Relations website.
此外,我們還將參考發佈到我們的投資者關係網站上的一份簡報。
On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Ken Crews, our CFO.
今天參加電話會議的有我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Kathy Warden;以及我們的財務長 Ken Crews。
At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy.
現在,我想將電話轉給凱西。
Kathy?
凱西?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝,托德,大家早安。
Thank you for joining us.
感謝您加入我們。
At Northrop Grumman, we remain steadfast in our mission to innovate and deliver cutting-edge technologies that enhance national security for the U.S. and our allies.
在諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司,我們堅定不移地履行我們的使命,即創新並提供尖端技術,以增強美國及其盟友的國家安全。
We are harnessing our investments to manufacture, at scale, the integrated hardware and software solutions that give our customers an advantage.
我們正在利用我們的投資大規模生產整合的硬體和軟體解決方案,為我們的客戶帶來優勢。
Our strategy, which is based on technology differentiation, has resulted in another year of strong financial performance.
我們的策略基於技術差異化,使我們在新的一年中取得了強勁的財務表現。
We set a new record backlog, including significant new competitive wins and follow-on awards.
我們創造了新的紀錄,包括重要的新競爭勝利和後續獎項。
We ended the year with a backlog of approximately $91.5 billion and a book-to-bill ratio at 1.23x, providing a solid foundation for future growth.
截至今年年底,我們的積壓訂單量約為 915 億美元,訂單出貨比為 1.23 倍,為未來成長奠定了堅實的基礎。
This was driven in part by a new competitive win on the TACAMO program and an award for the second LRIP lot on B-21 in the fourth quarter.
這在一定程度上得益於 TACAMO 專案在競爭中取得的新勝利以及第四季度獲得 B-21 第二個 LRIP 批次的獎勵。
Over the past three years, our book-to-bill is 1.15x, reflecting strong ongoing demand for our capabilities across U.S. and international markets.
在過去三年中,我們的訂單出貨比為 1.15 倍,反映出美國和國際市場對我們的能力持續強勁的需求。
In the fourth quarter, we also booked $900 million for the next iteration of Poland's IBCS system, bringing our international book-to-bill ratio for the year to 1.4x.
第四季度,我們還為波蘭 IBCS 系統的下一代產品預訂了 9 億美元,使我們全年的國際訂單出貨比達到 1.4 倍。
Given this strong demand, we now expect our international business to accelerate and grow faster than U.S. sales in 2025.
鑑於這種強勁的需求,我們預計到 2025 年我們的國際業務將加速發展,成長速度將超過美國銷售。
Our proven ability to grow backlog and deliver key capabilities to our customers has led to another year of strong top-line growth, with 2024 sales up more than 4%, building on the momentum over the last five years, where our top line has grown by 30% organically.
我們已證明有能力增加積壓訂單並向客戶提供關鍵功能,這使我們又一年實現了強勁的營收成長,2024 年銷售額增長超過 4%,並延續了過去五年的勢頭,我們的營收有機增長了 30%。
Meanwhile, our focus on performance and driving efficiencies in our business is leading to margin expansion, with segment operating margin dollars growing faster than sales.
同時,我們注重業績表現和業務效率的提高,進而帶來利潤率的擴大,分部營業利潤率的成長速度快於銷售額的成長速度。
And our free cash flow performance for the year was outstanding, increasing 25% year over year to over $2.6 billion at the high end of our guidance range.
我們今年的自由現金流表現非常出色,年增 25%,達到 26 億美元以上,處於我們預期範圍的高點。
As we look forward, our guidance reflects our expectation for continued solid organic growth of 3% to 4%, further segment margin expansion, and double-digit free cash flow growth again in 2025.
展望未來,我們的預期反映了我們對 2025 年繼續實現 3% 至 4% 的穩健有機增長、分部利潤率進一步擴大以及自由現金流再次實現兩位數增長的預期。
This guidance is consistent with the outlook we provided you in October.
指引與我們十月向您提供的展望一致。
At Northrop Grumman, our portfolio is well-positioned to provide critical deterrence capabilities and differentiating technology that address peer threats and achieve the shared goals of equipping the world's greatest military, reaching new frontiers in space, and improving the ways industry and government do business.
在諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司,我們的產品組合能夠提供關鍵的威懾能力和差異化技術,以應對同行的威脅,並實現裝備世界上最強大的軍隊、探索太空新領域以及改善工業和政府開展業務的方式的共同目標。
We look forward to partnering with the Trump administration to accomplish these objectives.
我們期待與川普政府合作以實現這些目標。
We expect Congress to complete FY25 appropriations this spring, which is assumed in our guidance.
我們預計國會將在今年春季完成 FY25 撥款,這是我們的指導假設。
As discussions continue regarding the U.S. defense budget and potential additional investments, we continue to see strong bipartisan support for national security.
隨著有關美國國防預算和潛在額外投資的討論不斷進行,我們繼續看到兩黨對國家安全的大力支持。
And global defense budgets are growing as our allies seek to counter aggression from increasingly sophisticated threats.
隨著我們的盟友尋求對抗日益複雜的威脅,全球國防預算也不斷增加。
This is driving an increase in demand, particularly in areas such as crewed and uncrewed aircraft, advanced weapons and missile defense.
這推動了需求的成長,特別是在載人和無人飛機、先進武器和飛彈防禦等領域。
These dynamics give us confidence in our strong international growth outlook.
這些動態使我們對強勁的國際成長前景充滿信心。
At our core, we are a technology company, and we are well-positioned on programs that are essential to the U.S. and our alliesâ national security.
從本質上講,我們是一家科技公司,並且在對美國及其盟友的國家安全至關重要的項目上佔據有利地位。
More than just an integrator, we possess technology depth throughout Northrop Grumman, not only in what we produce, but in how we produce it.
我們不僅僅是一個整合商,我們在整個諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司都擁有深厚的技術底蘊,不僅在我們生產的產品上,而且在我們生產的方式上。
This combination allows us to compete and win on priority programs and support our customers' goal of peace through strength.
這種結合使得我們能夠在優先項目上競爭並獲勝,並支持我們的客戶實現以實力實現和平的目標。
One example is our government-trusted design and development of specialized microelectronics for the Department of Defense through our accredited foundries.
其中一個例子就是我們透過經認可的代工廠為國防部進行政府委託的專用微電子設計和開發。
In our Microelectronics Center, we build on our path to innovate for the future and continually disrupt our own technology to bring unmatched capabilities to the U.S. military.
在我們的微電子中心,我們在未來創新的道路上不斷突破我們自己的技術,為美國軍方帶來無與倫比的能力。
Our terahertz microchip - which operates at 1 trillion cycles per second - is the fastest in the world, according to the Guinness World Record.
根據金氏世界紀錄,我們的太赫茲微晶片運行速度為每秒 1 兆次,是世界上最快的。
This type of innovation is realized through material science, new hardware design and manufacturing techniques, and advanced software development.
這種創新是透過材料科學、新硬體設計和製造技術以及先進的軟體開發實現的。
All capabilities that we have built and refined over time and possess at scale, so we can deliver for our customers' most challenging missions.
我們隨著時間的推移建立、完善並大規模擁有所有能力,因此我們可以完成客戶最具挑戰性的任務。
As a result of having this capability, our microelectronics business grew over 20% in 2024.
由於擁有這種能力,我們的微電子業務在 2024 年成長了 20% 以上。
And equally important, it creates competitive advantages for Northrop Grumman by providing mission-critical technologies that flow upwards through our value chain, are married with missionized software and then are designed into product areas, such as sensors, communications, processing, and security solutions.
同樣重要的是,它透過提供關鍵任務技術為諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司創造了競爭優勢,這些技術在我們的價值鏈中向上流動,與任務軟體相結合,然後被設計到產品領域,例如感測器、通訊、處理和安全解決方案。
We deliver these game-changing capabilities as a prime contractor on platforms we build and also offer them as a trusted supplier to other platform manufacturers.
我們作為我們所建造的平台的總承包商提供這些改變遊戲規則的功能,並且作為其他平台製造商的可信賴供應商將它們提供給其他平台製造商。
As technological change accelerates, it becomes more important that we continue to deliver technology discriminators, whether thatâs tying together capabilities for family-of-system solutions or developing additional use cases for our missionized AI that enhance our solutions or accelerate decision-making.
隨著技術變革的加速,我們繼續提供技術鑑別器變得更加重要,無論是將一系列系統解決方案的功能結合在一起,還是為我們的任務型人工智慧開發額外的用例,以增強我們的解決方案或加速決策。
We are leveraging our own hardware and software and also partnering with leading companies in areas such as AI to ensure our customers have the most advanced equipment in the world.
我們利用自己的硬體和軟體,並與人工智慧等領域的領先公司合作,以確保我們的客戶擁有世界上最先進的設備。
Innovation and having the capabilities to meet our customer needs are important, but the ability to scale production and field new systems at speed are core to ultimate mission success.
創新和滿足客戶需求的能力很重要,但擴大生產規模和快速部署新系統的能力才是最終任務成功的核心。
As we've grown our capacity, we've also been implementing advanced manufacturing techniques, automation, and digital factories across our company.
隨著產能的不斷增長,我們也在整個公司範圍內實施先進的製造技術、自動化和數位化工廠。
We are designing, manufacturing, and sustaining our next-generation systems with digital ecosystems that are improving our agility and efficiency and therefore, lowering our costs and time to field.
我們正在設計、製造和維護我們的下一代系統,並透過數位生態系統來提高我們的敏捷性和效率,從而降低我們的成本和投入時間。
These new manufacturing technologies, along with the capacity investments we've made, enable us to rapidly ramp production.
這些新的製造技術以及我們所進行的產能投資使我們能夠快速提高產量。
We've done this in areas like solid rocket motors, advanced weapons, and satellite manufacturing.
我們在固體火箭發動機、先進武器和衛星製造等領域都做到了這一點。
And these investments also allow us to more seamlessly transition major programs from design to production, like we've done with the B-21, all of which have been and will continue to be important drivers of growth for our company.
這些投資也使我們能夠更無縫地將主要項目從設計過渡到生產,就像我們對 B-21 所做的那樣,所有這些項目都已經並將繼續成為我們公司成長的重要驅動力。
Next, I'd like to update you on the plans we've previously shared to drive margin expansion.
接下來,我想向大家介紹我們之前分享過的推動利潤擴大的計畫。
We continue to expect favorable mix to be a driver as we ramp on production programs and grow our international sales over the next several years.
我們繼續期待,隨著我們在未來幾年加大生產計劃並增加國際銷售額,有利的產品組合將成為推動力。
Beyond this, we are taking proactive actions to drive efficiencies across the company.
除此之外,我們也採取積極行動,提高整個公司的效率。
These actions include implementation of digital toolsets that reduce process time, automate tasks, and maximize output for our technical team.
這些行動包括實施數位工具集,以減少處理時間、自動執行任務並最大限度地提高我們的技術團隊的產出。
We're streamlining our organizational structure, optimizing our supply chain spend, and reducing costs through improved utilization of our resources and facilities.
我們正在精簡組織結構,優化供應鏈支出,並透過提高資源和設施的利用率來降低成本。
We removed over $200 million of cost in the enterprise in 2024 alone.
光是 2024 年,我們就為企業節省了超過 2 億美元的成本。
We have a laser focus on performance excellence, driven by delivering first-time quality and robust risk management processes.
我們高度重視卓越績效,並透過提供首次品質和強大的風險管理流程來推動。
Altogether, these cost efficiency initiatives, mix shifts, and focus on performance, give us confidence we can reduce cost to the taxpayer, while also enhancing segment margins as we progress through this decade.
總而言之,這些成本效益措施、組合轉變以及對績效的關注使我們有信心降低納稅人的成本,同時隨著本世紀的進步提高部門利潤率。
This margin expansion, coupled with continued growth in our business and reduced capital investment are the drivers of our multi-year free cash flow growth outlook.
利潤率的擴大,加上業務的持續成長和資本投資的減少,共同推動了我們多年自由現金流的成長前景。
We continue to pursue a balanced capital deployment strategy that supports our customers' requirements and returns cash to shareholders.
我們持續推行平衡的資本配置策略,以滿足客戶的需求並向股東返還現金。
Over the past two years, we've invested over $3.5 billion in CapEx to expand our capacity and implement the advanced manufacturing lines across our company.
在過去的兩年裡,我們投資了超過 35 億美元的資本支出來擴大我們的產能並在公司範圍內實施先進的生產線。
And we are planning to invest another $1.5 billion in 2025.
我們計劃在 2025 年再投資 15 億美元。
We've also delivered over 100% of free cash flow to shareholders last year.
去年我們也為股東帶來了超過 100% 的自由現金流。
We continue to believe we have the best portfolio that is aligned to our customers' highest priority missions.
我們始終相信,我們擁有最符合客戶最高優先任務的最佳產品組合。
However, as we always do, we continuously evaluate the portfolio to ensure that we are investing in the businesses that are core to achieving our strategic vision.
然而,與往常一樣,我們會不斷評估投資組合,以確保我們投資的業務是實現我們策略願景的核心。
This includes assessing any gaps that may emerge over time or businesses that may make sense to exit.
這包括評估隨著時間的推移可能出現的任何差距或可能需要退出的業務。
With this in mind, we've decided to exit our Training Services business that is part of the Defense Systems segment.
考慮到這一點,我們決定退出國防系統部門下的訓練服務業務。
Today, we announced that we have signed an agreement to sell the business to Serco Inc. for $327 million, and we forecast this transaction to close towards the middle of the year.
今天,我們宣布已簽署協議,以 3.27 億美元的價格將該業務出售給 Serco Inc.,我們預計該交易將於今年年中完成。
This is an important capability for our customers, and we expect the team to continue to deliver world-class training services under new leadership, allowing us to focus on our core business.
這對我們的客戶來說是一項重要的能力,我們期望團隊在新的領導下繼續提供世界一流的培訓服務,使我們能夠專注於我們的核心業務。
2024 was marked by strong program execution, compelling financial performance, implementation of operational improvements, and impactful strategic initiatives that have positioned us for long-term success.
2024 年的顯著特點是強大的計劃執行力、令人矚目的財務業績、營運改善的實施以及富有影響力的策略舉措,這些為我們取得長期成功奠定了基礎。
Our ability to capitalize on opportunities and deliver exceptional results is a direct testament to the hard work and dedication of every member of our company.
我們抓住機會、取得卓越成果的能力直接證明了公司每位成員的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。
Our strategic priorities remain focused on fostering innovation, enhancing operational excellence, and expanding our impact for our customers.
我們的策略重點仍然是促進創新、提高卓越營運和擴大我們對客戶的影響力。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Ken to discuss our fourth quarter and full-year financial results as well as our 2025 guidance.
因此,我將把電話轉給肯,討論我們的第四季和全年財務業績以及 2025 年指引。
Ken?
肯?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,凱西,大家早安。
As Kathy outlined, we delivered another strong year of financial performance in 2024, delivering on or exceeding the financial commitments that we communicated a year ago.
正如凱西所概述的,我們在 2024 年又取得了強勁的財務業績,兌現或超越了我們一年前傳達的財務承諾。
This sustained performance is a reflection of our strategic positioning, continued focus on operational excellence, and disciplined approach to financial management.
這項持續的業績體現了我們的策略定位、對卓越營運的持續關注、以及嚴謹的財務管理方法。
We continue to see robust and enduring demand for our capabilities in both domestic and international markets.
我們繼續看到國內和國際市場對我們能力的強勁而持久的需求。
Reflecting this demand, we booked $17.3 billion in new awards in the fourth quarter and approximately $51 billion for the full year.
為了滿足這一需求,我們在第四季度獲得了 173 億美元的新合同,全年獲得了約 510 億美元的新合約。
This led to a record backlog of over $91 billion, an increase of 9% compared to last year, positioning the company for continued growth.
這導致積壓訂單達到創紀錄的超過 910 億美元,比去年增長 9%,為公司持續成長奠定了基礎。
Moving to top line, we generated sales of $10.7 billion in quarter four and $41 billion for the year. 2024 sales increased by 4.4%, with growth across three of our four businesses.
談到營收,我們第四季的銷售額為 107 億美元,全年銷售額為 410 億美元。 2024 年銷售額成長 4.4%,我們的四大業務中有三項均成長。
Transitioning to segment performance, NGAS grew to $12 billion in 2024, an increase of 12% compared to the prior year.
從細分市場表現來看,NGAS 到 2024 年將成長至 120 億美元,較前一年成長 12%。
Sales volume increased throughout the portfolio and was driven by the production ramp on B-21 and from higher activity on the F-35 program.
整個產品組合的銷售量都有所增加,這得益於 B-21 產量的提升以及 F-35 專案活動的增加。
Sales were also higher on autonomous programs such as Triton and Global Hawk.
Triton 和 Global Hawk 等自動駕駛項目的銷售額也有所成長。
And we saw higher volume on E-2 sustainment and modernization work.
我們看到 E-2 維持和現代化工作量增加。
DS posted sales growth of 3%, driven by higher sales on Sentinel, advanced weapons and ammunition programs, partially offset by lower volume due to the completion of an international training program.
DS 的銷售額增長了 3%,這得益於 Sentinel、先進武器和彈藥項目的銷售額增長,但由於完成國際培訓項目導致的銷售下降,部分抵消了這一增長。
Mission Systems sales increased by 5%, led by higher volume on advanced and microelectronics and technology programs.
任務系統銷售額成長了 5%,這主要得益於先進和微電子及技術專案數量的增加。
And in the Space segment, 2024 sales were down modestly, as expected compared to the prior year due to the wind down of a restricted program and NGI.
在太空領域,由於限制計劃和 NGI 的結束,2024 年的銷售額與前一年相比略有下降,這與預期一致。
As we previously stated, the remaining Space portfolio grew at mid-single digits in 2024, driven by higher sales on Space Development Agency satellite programs and numerous other programs.
正如我們之前所說,由於太空發展局衛星計畫和眾多其他項目的銷售額增加,剩餘的太空投資組合在 2024 年將以中等個位數成長。
Turning to the bottom line, 2024 segment operating income was over $4.5 billion, and our segment operating margin rate expanded to 11.1%.
談到底線,2024 年分部營業收入超過 45 億美元,我們的分部營業利益率擴大至 11.1%。
Margins improved due to the proactive steps we've taken to further enhance performance and drive efficiencies across our business, as Kathy described earlier in the call.
正如凱西在電話會議中早些時候所描述的,利潤率的提高是由於我們採取了積極措施進一步提高業績並提高整個業務的效率。
This performance led to an increase in net favorable earnings adjustments totaling $350 million for the year.
這一業績導致全年淨利潤調整總額增加 3.5 億美元。
Strong segment performance was the driver for higher year-over-year earnings per share, as shown on slide 6 in our earnings deck. 2024 mark-to-market adjusted EPS was $26.08 and exceeded the high end of our guidance range provided in October.
正如我們的收益報告中第 6 張投影片所示,強勁的分部表現是每股盈餘較去年同期上漲的推動力。 2024 年以市價調整後的每股收益為 26.08 美元,超過了我們 10 月提供的指導範圍的高端。
Higher net pension income and a lower share count also provided an uplift.
更高的淨退休金收入和更低的股票數量也帶來了提振。
Moving to cash.
轉向現金。
We had an excellent quarter of cash generation in Q4, as is our historical pattern.
正如我們的歷史模式一樣,我們在第四季的現金創造能力非常出色。
Our full year operating cash flow was $4.4 billion, and we invested roughly $1.8 billion in capital expenditures.
我們全年的營運現金流為 44 億美元,資本支出約 18 億美元。
This resulted in over $2.6 billion in 2024 free cash flow, near the high end of our guidance range, and up a notable 25% compared to 2023.
這導致 2024 年的自由現金流超過 26 億美元,接近我們指導範圍的高端,與 2023 年相比顯著增長了 25%。
Next, I would like to provide an update on our pension results and multi-year estimates.
接下來,我想提供有關我們的退休金結果和多年估計的最新資訊。
Asset returns in 2024 were 4.7%, below our long-term expected rate of return of 7.5%.
2024 年資產報酬率為 4.7%,低於我們長期預期的 7.5% 的報酬率。
Meanwhile, the FAS discount rate increased by roughly 60 basis points to 5.73%, more than offsetting the impact from lower asset returns.
同時,FAS折現率上升了約60個基點,至5.73%,足以抵銷資產報酬率下降帶來的影響。
The net result, along with updated census data, is a 2024 mark-to-market after-tax benefit of $332 million or $2.26 a share.
淨結果加上最新的人口普查數據表明,2024 年按市價計算的稅後收益為 3.32 億美元,即每股 2.26 美元。
Looking forward, these results translate to slightly higher expected CAS recoveries and a reduced FAS pension benefit, lowering overall net pension income compared to the prior outlook.
展望未來,這些結果意味著預期 CAS 回收率將略有上升,而 FAS 退休金福利將有所減少,從而與先前的展望相比,整體退休金淨收入將有所下降。
Importantly, our pension plans remain fully funded, and we continue to project minimal cash pension contributions over the next several years.
重要的是,我們的退休金計劃仍然資金充足,而且我們預計未來幾年我們的現金退休金繳款將保持在最低水準。
Before covering our 2025 guidance, I'll highlight recent changes to our portfolio.
在介紹我們的 2025 年指引之前,我將重點放在我們投資組合的最新變化。
In addition to the upcoming divestiture of the Training Services business, which has an annual run rate of $300 million in sales, the Strike and Surveillance Aircraft Services business unit has been realigned from Defense Systems to Aeronautic Systems, effective January 1st of this year.
除了即將剝離年銷售額達 3 億美元的訓練服務業務外,攻擊和監視飛機服務業務部門還從國防系統部門調整為航空系統部門,該調整將於今年 1 月 1 日起生效。
This business provides a variety of support and sustainment activities, primarily on aircraft programs in our AS portfolio.
該業務提供各種支援和維護活動,主要針對我們 AS 產品組合中的飛機項目。
This now aligns the full product life cycles of Northrop Grumman aircraft, allowing for more seamless development and sustainment of next-generation aircraft.
這使得諾斯羅普·格魯曼飛機的整個產品生命週期保持一致,從而可以更無縫地開發和維持下一代飛機。
These actions, coupled with the completion of an international training program, create a portfolio at DS that is now centered around strategic deterrence, advanced weapons, and missile defense.
這些行動,加上國際培訓計劃的完成,使得 DS 的業務範圍目前以戰略威懾、先進武器和飛彈防禦為中心。
Fourth quarter and 2024 results have been reported in the prior organization structure, and we've provided a few tables in our earnings release and slide deck that recast sales and margins for current and historical periods.
第四季和 2024 年的業績已在先前的組織結構中報告,我們在收益報告和幻燈片中提供了一些表格,重新表述了當前和歷史時期的銷售額和利潤率。
Moving forward, we'll report first quarter 2025 results and beyond in the new structure.
展望未來,我們將按照新的結構報告 2025 年第一季及以後的業績。
And our 2025 segment guidance also reflects the new structure inclusive of the divestiture.
我們的 2025 年分部指引也反映了包括資產剝離在內的新結構。
Turning to 2025, our segment guidance is included on slide 8 in our earnings deck.
展望 2025 年,我們的分部指引包含在我們的收益簡報的第 8 張投影片中。
Aeronautic sales are expected to be in the low $13 billions, representing mid-single-digit growth.
航空銷售額預計將達到 130 億美元左右,呈現中等個位數成長。
This includes nearly $400 million of sales from the realignment previously mentioned.
這其中包括先前提到的重組帶來的近4億美元的銷售額。
Aeronautics margins are expected in the mid to high 9% range and reflect higher sales on the LRIP phase of B-21.
航空利潤率預計在 9% 左右,反映了 B-21 LRIP 階段的更高銷售額。
2025 DS sales are projected in the low $8 billions.
預計 2025 年 DS 銷售額將達到 80 億美元左右。
We expect DS to be our fastest-growing business in 2025 with double-digit organic sales growth, driven by higher sales on Sentinel, IBCS, and our diverse weapons portfolio.
我們預計,在 Sentinel、IBCS 和多樣化武器產品組合銷售額成長的推動下,DS 將成為我們 2025 年成長最快的業務,實現兩位數的有機銷售額成長。
Segment operating margin at DS is expected to grow faster than sales with an OM rate of mid to high 9%.
DS 的分部營業利潤率預計將比銷售額成長更快,OM 率為 9% 左右。
Sales at Mission Systems are projected to grow mid-single digits again in 2025, with sales reaching approximately $12 billion.
預計 2025 年 Mission Systems 的銷售額將再次實現中等個位數成長,達到約 120 億美元。
And operating margins are expected to expand approximately 50 basis points to mid-14%, as productivity initiatives continue to drive improved performance.
由於生產力措施持續推動業績改善,預計營業利潤率將擴大約 50 個基點,達到 14% 左右。
We expect sales in the Space Segment of roughly $11 billion, reflecting a year-over-year headwind of $900 million from the wind down of our work on the restricted space and NGI programs.
我們預計太空部門的銷售額約為 110 億美元,這反映了由於我們在受限空間和 NGI 項目上的工作逐漸減少而導致的 9 億美元同比逆風。
And we expect an OM rate of high 10% at Space, ahead of where we ended 2024.
我們預計太空領域的 OM 率將達到 10% 以上,比 2024 年底的水平還要高。
At the company level, our 2025 guidance is consistent with the outlook we provided on our Q3 call.
在公司層面,我們的 2025 年指引與我們在第三季電話會議上提供的展望一致。
Full-year sales are expected to grow 3% to 4% on an organic basis with first quarter sales and margins comparable to Q1 of last year.
預計全年銷售額將有機成長 3% 至 4%,第一季的銷售額和利潤率與去年第一季相當。
Keep in mind, the first quarter year-over-year company sales growth will be flat due to the program wind-downs in Space, with the majority of the year-over-year growth occurring in the second half of the year.
請記住,由於太空計劃的逐步結束,第一季公司銷售額同比增長將持平,大部分同比增長將發生在下半年。
Full-year segment margins are projected to expand roughly 10 basis points with margins also ramping throughout the year.
預計全年分部利潤率將擴大約 10 個基點,全年利潤率也將持續上升。
This year-over-year expansion is driven by the continuation of our efficiency and productivity initiatives as well as international growth.
這一同比增長得益於我們持續的效率和生產力舉措以及國際增長。
Our guidance for mark-to-market adjusted EPS is $28.05 at the midpoint, up more than 7% year over year.
我們對以市價調整後的每股盈餘的預期中間值為 28.05 美元,年成長超過 7%。
Next, I want to take a moment to highlight several contributing factors to this outlook.
接下來,我想花點時間強調形成這種觀點的幾個因素。
First, the total FAS/CAS pension adjustment is projected at $800 million, down $60 million compared to our prior outlook in Q3.
首先,FAS/CAS 退休金調整總額預計為 8 億美元,比我們先前對第三季的預測下降 6,000 萬美元。
Second, we are projecting corporate unallocated expenses of $280 million this year, up compared to our 2024 results and reflective of a normalized level of recurring expenses.
其次,我們預期今年企業未分配支出為 2.8 億美元,與 2024 年的業績相比有所上升,反映了經常性支出的正常化程度。
The primary drivers of the reduced 2024 expense were state tax and environmental-related benefits that are not expected to recur in 2025.
2024 年支出減少的主要驅動因素是州稅和環境相關福利,預計這些福利在 2025 年不會再次出現。
Third, we expect a pre-tax gain from the Training Service divestiture of $205 million, which will also flow through corporate unallocated.
第三,我們預期培訓服務業務剝離將帶來 2.05 億美元的稅前收益,這筆收益也將流入企業未分配部分。
Our 2025 estimated tax rate is projected at low to mid-17%.
我們預計 2025 年的稅率為 17% 左右。
And we are reaffirming our 2025 free cash flow guidance range of greater than 15% growth at the midpoint.
我們重申 2025 年自由現金流指引範圍,中點成長率將超過 15%。
Speaking of cash, due to our strong performance in 2024, we ended the year with a cash balance of nearly $4.4 billion.
說到現金,由於我們在 2024 年的強勁表現,我們到年底的現金餘額接近 44 億美元。
In early January, we repaid $1.5 billion of notes that matured.
1月初,我們償還了到期的15億美元票據。
This year, our investments in R&D and CapEx are projected at over $2.5 billion, and we expect to return 100% of our free cash flow to investors.
今年,我們在研發和資本支出方面的投資預計將超過 25 億美元,我們預計將 100% 的自由現金流返還給投資者。
As we look ahead, there are many opportunities in front of us.
放眼未來,我們面前充滿著無限機會。
The foundation we have built sets the stage for continued growth and value creation.
我們所建立的基礎為持續成長和創造價值奠定了基礎。
Our investments in advanced technologies, forward-thinking strategies, and disciplined financial management, ensure we are well prepared to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
我們對先進技術、前瞻性策略和嚴格的財務管理的投資確保我們做好充分準備來利用新興機會。
I'm confident that together, we will continue to deliver outstanding results for all of our stakeholders.
我相信,透過共同努力,我們將繼續為所有利害關係人帶來卓越的成果。
With that, let's open the call to questions.
現在,我們開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.
(操作員指示)美國銀行羅納德·愛潑斯坦 (Ronald Epstein)。
Ronald Epstein - Analyst
Ronald Epstein - Analyst
Good morning.
早安.
So, there's been a lot of talk lately about an Iron Dome.
最近有很多關於鐵穹防禦系統的討論。
Given the kind of work that you guys do both in space and missile protection and so on and so forth, missile defense, can you give us any thoughts on how you're thinking about Iron Dome?
鑑於你們在太空和飛彈防護等領域所做的工作,飛彈防禦,你能否談談對鐵穹防禦系統的看法?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah.
是的。
Thanks, Ron.
謝謝,羅恩。
So, we welcome the urgency that the Trump administration is placing on protecting the homeland from escalating global missile threats.
因此,我們歡迎川普政府緊急採取措施保護國土免受不斷升級的全球飛彈威脅。
We think it is very timely.
我們認為這是非常及時的。
And as you've noted, we do offer end-to-end integrated air and missile defense capabilities.
正如您所說,我們確實提供端到端的一體化防空和飛彈防禦能力。
Just a few examples that might be relevant to a U.S. Iron Dome include capabilities that can disrupt missile launch.
與美國鐵穹防禦系統相關的幾個例子包括能夠擾亂飛彈發射的能力。
So, this is a capability left of launch.
因此,這是發射後剩下的一項能力。
We also have satellite-based missile detection and tracking and we have interceptors for hypersonic weapons under development.
我們還擁有基於衛星的飛彈偵測和追蹤技術,並且正在研發高超音速武器攔截器。
And this, of course, is all in addition to the air and missile defense command and control systems that we build.
當然,這一切都是除了我們建造的防空和飛彈防禦指揮和控制系統之外的。
So when you think about an architecture to defend the U.S., particularly with the range that these missiles will need and the advanced threats that are emerging with hypersonic weapons, we think we're very well-positioned to support that architecture.
因此,當你考慮一個保衛美國的架構時,特別是考慮到這些飛彈所需的射程以及高超音速武器帶來的先進威脅,我們認為我們完全有能力支持這種架構。
Ronald Epstein - Analyst
Ronald Epstein - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And then maybe just one quick follow-on.
然後可能只需要快速跟進一次。
When we think about growth in 2025, how much of a contributor is B-21 and GBSD?
當我們考慮 2025 年的成長時,B-21 和 GBSD 的貢獻有多大?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Both will contribute to growth in 2025.
兩者都將促進 2025 年的成長。
Both are more modest than the growth rates that they've experienced in the past just because of the place that they are in their life cycle.
由於它們所處的生命週期階段,兩者的成長率都比過去所經歷的成長率要溫和。
And so we do continue to expect those to be less than 10% of sales in the company, but continuing to gradually increase from '24 into '25.
因此,我們確實繼續預計這些銷售額將占公司銷售額的 10% 以下,但從 24 年到 25 年將繼續逐步增加。
Operator
Operator
Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Kathy, if the Air Force were to elect to accelerate production on B-21, would the incremental units that get accelerated have similar unit pricing as the existing aircraft in those Lots?
凱西,如果空軍選擇加速 B-21 的生產,那麼加速生產的增量單位的單位價格是否會與該批次中的現有飛機相似?
Or would that be more of an open negotiation for any accelerated units?
或者對於任何加速單位來說這是否更像是一場公開的談判?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
We would work with the Air Force to look at when those units would come into the contract.
我們將與空軍合作,研究這些部隊何時簽訂合約。
And obviously, we are accumulating more and more actual performance to help inform discussions with them about the right pricing.
顯然,我們正在累積越來越多的實際業績,以幫助他們討論正確的定價。
So it would be premature for me to comment on where we expect that to land, but it would be a discussion.
因此,我現在就評論我們預計的結果還為時過早,但這值得討論。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then, Ken, the guide implies some pretty solid margin expansion at Mission Systems.
然後,肯,該指南暗示任務系統的利潤率將大幅擴張。
Maybe you could talk a little bit through the specific drivers that are supporting that margin expansion?
或許您可以稍微談談支持利潤率擴大的具體驅動因素?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thanks for the question, Scott.
謝謝你的提問,斯科特。
And as you mentioned, when we looked into 2025, the expansion of margins at Mission Systems is about 50 basis points.
正如您所說,展望 2025 年,任務系統的利潤率將擴大約 50 個基點。
Really proud of the Mission Systems team, particularly if you look at 2024, we had some as we scaled the business, initial headwinds in Q2 and if you look at their performance since Q2 it's grown and done -- they have done exceptionally well, ending the year with a 14.9% booking rate in quarter four.
真的為任務系統團隊感到驕傲,特別是如果你看看 2024 年,我們在擴大業務規模時遇到了一些困難,在第二季度遇到了最初的阻力,如果你看看他們自第二季度以來的表現,它已經增長並且完成了——他們做得非常好,年底第四季度的預訂率為 14.9%。
As we look forward, we're continuing to see the performance improvements driven by multiple factors.
展望未來,我們將繼續看到由多種因素推動的效能改進。
It's continuing to drive cost out of the business, leveraging the improvements that we made in our factories.
它透過利用我們在工廠中取得的改進來持續降低業務成本。
As we progress and the business has scaled, we have made sure that we've developed our team in terms of being able to operate in a more effective and efficient manner as we produce those products.
隨著我們的進步和業務規模的擴大,我們確保我們的團隊能夠以更有效、更有效率的方式運作,同時生產這些產品。
And then obviously, the various digital technologies and the focus on cost reductions.
顯然,各種數位技術都注重降低成本。
And if you look at Mission Systems, they have focused on reduced costs.
如果你看一下任務系統,你會發現他們專注於降低成本。
And even as a percentage of G&A, we're seeing it continuously reduced.
即使作為 G&A 的百分比,我們也看到它正在持續減少。
And so those are some of the primary drivers that give us confidence in terms of their ability to expand margins in '25.
這些是讓我們對其在25年擴大利潤率的能力充滿信心的一些主要驅動因素。
Operator
Operator
Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.
傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst
Kathy, I think you called out in your script, $900 million of headwind from NGI and classified when it comes to Space.
凱西,我想你在劇本中提到過,NGI 將面臨 9 億美元的逆風,而當涉及太空時,這些逆風是機密。
Implies the rest of the business is growing 2%.
意味著其餘業務成長2%。
How are you thinking about just growth from LEO, GEO, NASA programs?
您如何看待 LEO、GEO 和 NASA 計畫的成長?
And how -- as a follow-up to that, when does the segment return to margin expansion or growth?
那麼,作為後續問題,該部門何時恢復利潤率擴大或成長?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
So in terms of margin expansion, I'll take your second question first with Space is, as you've seen, year-over-year significant improvements when we think about earnings adjustments from what we saw in 2023 to 2024, and that's focused on the performance elements and then driving efficiencies and reduced costs.
因此,就利潤率擴大而言,我首先回答您的第二個問題,正如您所看到的,當我們考慮 2023 年至 2024 年的盈利調整時,空間同比有顯著改善,並且重點關注績效要素,然後提高效率並降低成本。
And we continue to expect that focus and improvements from those efficiency initiatives.
我們將繼續期待這些效率措施能夠受到重視並帶來改善。
And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, is, we do expect Space to continue to expand margins and deliver in 2025 above what they delivered in 2024 at the high 10% range.
正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們確實預計 Space 將繼續擴大利潤率,並在 2025 年實現高於 2024 年 10% 的成長率。
And in terms of what's driving Space overall growth, is, we do have -- I just want to clarify, the $1.5 billion of 2025 sales.
就推動太空整體成長的因素而言,我們確實有——我只想澄清一下,2025 年的銷售額為 15 億美元。
That became a headwind with about $600 million in '24 with $900 million in '25.
這成為了阻力,1924 年損失約 6 億美元,1925 年損失 9 億美元。
That $900 million is primarily focused on the first half of the year, and we expect Space to contribute to growth, or return to growth, towards the end of 2025 and then continue that expansion into 2026.
這 9 億美元主要集中在上半年,我們預計 Space 將在 2025 年底促進成長或恢復成長,然後在 2026 年繼續擴張。
The primary drivers of driving the growth overall is strategic comms, restricted space, the continued expansion of propulsion systems is what's driving that growth.
推動整體成長的主要動力是策略溝通、受限空間、推進系統的持續擴張等。
Operator
Operator
Douglas Harned, Bernstein.
道格拉斯‧哈內德 (Douglas Harned)、伯恩斯坦 (Bernstein)。
Douglas Harned - Analyst
Douglas Harned - Analyst
On Defense Systems, you've made a number of changes there.
在國防系統方面,你們做出了許多改變。
Kathy, could you describe what the what we should think of as Defense Systems. sort of the theme there?
凱西,你能描述一下我們該如何看待防禦系統嗎?那裡有什麼主題嗎?
In other words, it's much different than it was just a year ago.
換句話說,它與一年前相比已經有很大不同。
What are you trying to do with that segment?
您想用這個片段做什麼?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah.
是的。
So we have transitioned that segment over the course of the last year with the divestiture of Training Services and the movement of the Sustainment portfolio into our AS business.
因此,我們在過去一年中對該部門進行了轉型,剝離了培訓服務,並將維護產品組合轉移到我們的 AS 業務。
The Defense Systems now is largely a strategic missiles, tactical weapons and command and control business.
目前國防系統主要包括戰略飛彈、戰術武器和指揮與控制業務。
And so that aligns their customer focus, more simply.
這樣就可以更簡單地統一他們的客戶關注點。
It also creates synergy across those three businesses, as you would expect.
正如您所期望的,它還會在這三項業務之間產生協同效應。
It's the life cycle of missile defense if you will.
如果你願意的話,這就是飛彈防禦的生命週期。
And so we're excited about that.
因此我們對此感到興奮。
But I also will say this synergy with AS to receive that Sustainment business, which is largely work on either existing or soon to be fielded AS systems, allows us to complete that life cycle within the AS business, looking at Sustained systems and what's required to modernize them.
但我還要說,與 AS 的這種協同作用可以獲得維持業務,該業務主要針對現有或即將部署的 AS 系統,這使我們能夠在 AS 業務中完成該生命週期,同時研究維持系統及其現代化所需的條件。
So we think this is beneficial to both segments in terms of the movements that we've made.
因此,我們認為,就我們所採取的措施而言,這對兩個部門都有好處。
Douglas Harned - Analyst
Douglas Harned - Analyst
And then related to that, the rocket motors has been a big issue kind of industry-wide.
與此相關,火箭發動機一直是整個產業的一個大問題。
Clearly, you have your own capability there.
顯然,你有自己的能力。
How do you see the rocket motor portion of that business, both in terms of if there's any bottleneck or any constraints for what you're trying to do, but also externally the ability to grow sales there?
您如何看待火箭發動機業務的一部分?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
So our solid rocket motor business, sitting inside of Defense Systems, is mostly focused on tactical weapons, and we have been growing that capacity and continue to execute funding to add to the capacity in the late '26 time frame.
因此,我們的固體火箭發動機業務(位於國防系統內部)主要集中在戰術武器上,我們一直在擴大這一產能,並將繼續執行資金以在 26 年後期增加產能。
We believe that the demand will be there to consume all of that capacity and probably continue to require more over time, but we are taking this in incremental steps to make sure that we don't get out ahead of capacity.
我們相信,需求將會消耗所有的產能,隨著時間的推移,可能還會需要更多的產能,但我們正在逐步採取這項措施,以確保不會超出產能範圍。
And it's a whole variety of systems that we're supporting.
我們支持的是各種各樣的系統。
It's often talked about as driven by stockpile replenishment of weapons that are being expended in regional conflicts, but it's also supporting new weapons that will be fielded to go into production in the later part of this decade.
人們經常說,這是為了補充在地區衝突中消耗的武器庫存,但它也是為了支持將在本世紀後期投入生產的新武器。
And so that business is very diverse in terms of its pipeline and channels to market.
因此,從通路和市場通路來看,該業務非常多樣化。
Operator
Operator
Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Kathy, in this administration and also some of the folks around it have been pretty vocal about looking to - I'm sure you've gotten questions over the years about defense start-ups and commercial technology.
凱西,本屆政府以及周圍的一些人一直直言不諱地呼籲——我相信多年來你一定收到過有關國防初創企業和商業技術的問題。
It seems like there is an effort in this administration to kind of accelerate both tapping into commercial technology and tapping into the capital that's in the commercial world.
本屆政府似乎正在努力加速利用商業技術和商業資本。
I guess how does that make you think about anything related to the portfolio and what should be in it, what shouldn't be in it, where the focus should be, Northrop's own capital deployment, and any of those kind of big picture issues?
我想這會讓您如何思考與投資組合相關的任何事情以及其中應該包含什麼,不應該包含什麼,重點應該放在哪裡,諾斯羅普自己的資本配置,以及任何此類大局問題?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah.
是的。
Look, first of all, we embrace new entrants into the space.
首先,我們歡迎新進入者進入該領域。
We often, and in this case, are teaming with companies that bring new ideas or new technology.
在這種情況下,我們經常與帶來新想法或新技術的公司合作。
It does not cause me to question our strategy on technology differentiation, but it certainly does sharpen our focus on where we should invest relative to the competitive landscape.
這不會讓我質疑我們的技術差異化策略,但確實會讓我們更加關注相對於競爭格局我們應該在何處進行投資。
And as I think about how this might evolve over time, the defense landscape is continuing to grow both domestically and internationally.
當我思考這種情況會隨著時間的推移如何演變時,國防格局在國內和國際上都在持續發展。
We are advancing into new technology areas, and I think there's room for all of us to work together to provide the U.S. and our allies what they need.
我們正在向新的技術領域邁進,我認為我們所有人都有空間共同努力,為美國及其盟友提供他們所需的東西。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
And then just as a follow-up, you talked about international growing faster this year.
然後作為後續問題,您談到今年國際成長更快。
And given the mix with Space that's that makes a lot of sense.
考慮到與空間的混合,這非常有意義。
When we look at it further, I guess, international had been running about $5 billion of sales.
如果我們進一步觀察,我估計國際銷售額已經達到約 50 億美元。
When you think longer term, is there either a dollar number or a percentage that you think about like later on in the decade?
當您考慮更長遠的未來時,您是否會想到一個美元數字或百分比,例如十年後?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah.
是的。
Well, this year, we're expecting growth to accelerate, as I said, and we expect double-digit growth this year.
嗯,正如我所說,我們預計今年成長將加速,我們預計今年將實現兩位數的成長。
And we see a path for that continuing for multiple years.
我們看到這種情況將持續多年。
Based on the backlog we've built, I noted that we had a 1.4x book-to-bill in international in 2024, and we have a strong pipeline emerging across a wide variety of products, IBCS, E-2D, Triton, just to name a few.
根據我們已經建立的積壓訂單,我注意到我們在 2024 年的國際訂單出貨比將達到 1.4 倍,並且我們在各種產品方面都有強大的產品線,包括 IBCS、E-2D、Triton,僅舉幾例。
And so as those mature in the pipeline, turn into awards and backlog, we could see the path to continue to grow international above U.S. sales growth rates.
因此,隨著這些產品在通路中逐漸成熟,獲得獎項並成為積壓訂單,我們可以看到國際銷售成長率繼續高於美國銷售成長率的道路。
Operator
Operator
Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的馬特‧艾克斯 (Matt Akers)。
Matt Akers - Analyst
Matt Akers - Analyst
I wanted to ask about Sentinel and just if you've heard anything new around the program review there.
我想問一下有關 Sentinel 的情況,以及您是否聽過有關該專案評審的任何新消息。
And as you think of kind of the long-term outlook, is there â would you say there's risk to the downside there â if that program sort of gets shifted out?
當您考慮長期前景時,如果該計劃被取消,您是否認為有下行風險?
Or is there risk to the upside if it sort of doesnât?
或者如果沒有的話,是否有上行風險?
Or do you think it's sort of well-calibrated?
還是您認為它已經經過精心校準了?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Well, let me directly answer your question first, and then I'll provide a little more context.
好吧,讓我先直接回答你的問題,然後再提供更多背景資訊。
We think that it's well calibrated in the outlook that we have provided.
我們認為,它與我們提供的觀點一致。
You'll recall last year, we made some adjustments in both awards and booking rates that indicated our best estimates of the profile of how that program will be executed, even through the restructure, and that indeed is still what we believe today.
您會記得,去年我們對獎勵和預訂率都做了一些調整,這些調整表明了我們對該計劃如何執行的最佳估計,即使透過重組也是如此,而這實際上仍然是我們今天所相信的。
We are working with the government on the restructure, but in the meantime, we are performing and meeting important milestones on the EMD contract.
我們正在與政府合作進行重組,但與此同時,我們正在履行並實現 EMD 合約的重要里程碑。
The government has said that they project the restructure to take 18 to 24 months, so we are still very much in that window.
政府表示,他們預計重組將耗時 18 至 24 個月,因此我們仍處於這個時間段內。
And we are -- even though they have paused work on some small infrastructure efforts in the command and launch segment, that is reflected in what we have shared with you.
儘管他們已經暫停了指揮和發射部分的一些小型基礎設施工作,但這反映在我們與你們分享的內容中。
We currently expect our 2025 Sentinel revenue to be in the mid-single-digit percentage of total revenue, as I said, and continuing to grow from '24 into 2025.
正如我所說,我們目前預計 2025 年 Sentinel 的收入將佔總收入的中等個位數百分比,並且將從 24 年持續成長到 2025 年。
Matt Akers - Analyst
Matt Akers - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
Okay.
好的。
And then I guess the free cash flow outlook on slide 11.
然後我猜第 11 張投影片上的是自由現金流前景。
Just if I look at the years, I mean '25 much bigger step-up than '26, '27, I know the pension starts to be kind of less of a tailwind after this year.
如果我看一下這些年,我的意思是 25 年的成長比 26 年、27 年大得多,我知道今年之後退休金的順風開始減弱了。
But just curious if there are any other kind of moving pieces that kind of the growth slows down after '25?
但我只是好奇,是否存在任何其他類型的變動因素,導致 25 年後的成長放緩?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
So what you're seeing in 2025 is a few things.
所以你在 2025 年會看到一些事情。
It's the continuing management and robust management of our balance sheet and the working capital as well as the profitable growth of the business and converting those margins to cash quickly.
這是對我們的資產負債表和營運資本的持續管理和穩健管理,以及業務的盈利性增長以及將這些利潤迅速轉換為現金。
To your point, we also see tailwinds near-term from CAS, but also our more normalized level of investments and capital expenditures.
正如您所說,我們也看到了 CAS 近期的順風,而且我們的投資和資本支出水準也更加正常化。
And then when you move past 2025 into '26 and beyond, we have -- it's really driven by the overall growth of the business and continuing to manage our working capital, which I consider best-in-class.
然後,當你超越 2025 年進入 2026 年及以後時,我們 - 這實際上是由業務的整體增長和繼續管理我們的營運資本所推動的,我認為這是同類最佳的。
We're in the low-single-digits when you think about adjusted working capital as a percentage of sales.
如果將調整後營運資本佔銷售額的百分比考慮在內,則處於低個位數。
And so it's really making sure that we continue to stay diligent managing the balance sheet and then as we grow the business, converting those margins to cash quickly, which is why it more normalizes with the overall growth rate of the business.
因此,這實際上確保我們繼續保持勤勉的管理資產負債表,然後隨著業務的成長,將這些利潤迅速轉換為現金,這就是為什麼它與業務的整體成長率更加正常化的原因。
Operator
Operator
Gavin Parsons, UBS.
瑞銀的加文·帕森斯(Gavin Parsons)。
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Aeronautics margin pressure, not too much year-over-year in 2025, given the B-21 ramp.
考慮到 B-21 的成長,2025 年航空利潤率壓力比去年同期不會太大。
I mean is there any change in the dilution consideration there?
我的意思是那裡的稀釋對價有什麼變化嗎?
Or is that just kind of being offset by better performance in the core Aeronautics segment?
或者這只是被核心航空領域的較佳表現所抵銷?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
So you've highlighted in 2024, extremely proud of the team and what they've been able to accomplish even as B-21 has continued to ramp, driving efficiencies and implementing performance improvement initiatives across the portfolio.
因此,您在 2024 年強調,對團隊以及他們所取得的成就感到非常自豪,即使 B-21 繼續加速發展、提高效率並在整個投資組合中實施績效改進計劃。
And we've been able to maintain earlier in the quarter -- early first three quarters double-digit returns, with quarter four slightly diluted just based on timings of mix.
並且我們能夠在本季度初(前三個季度初)維持兩位數的回報,而第四季度的回報僅根據組合時間略有稀釋。
As we look to 2025 is, you hit it, is we're continuing to expand on B-21.
展望 2025 年,我們將繼續擴大 B-21。
But the team has opportunities given those efficiencies to continue to drive performance improvements and allow us to maintain that mid to high-9% level of returns.
但鑑於這些效率,團隊有機會繼續推動績效改進,並讓我們維持約 9% 的中高水準回報。
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Great.
偉大的。
How big is the microelectronics business?
微電子業務規模有多大?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
The Microelectronics Center is a business that feeds the rest of the portfolio, as I discussed.
正如我所討論的,微電子中心是為其餘投資組合提供支援的業務。
So, it contains our foundries and our work in developing chips.
因此,它包含我們的代工廠和我們開發晶片的工作。
So, we actually sell most of that embedded in systems in other parts of our company or sell them directly to external entities.
因此,我們實際上將大部分嵌入系統的產品賣給了公司的其他部門或直接賣給了外部實體。
So the vast majority shows up in revenue in our segments.
因此,絕大部分都反映在我們各部門的收入上。
And it's largely our Space business and our Mission Systems business where that revenue resides.
我們的收入主要來自太空業務和任務系統業務。
It's a significant portion of both of those businesses that have value creation starting in the Microelectronics Center.
這是這兩項業務中很重要的一部分,它們的價值創造都始於微電子中心。
Operator
Operator
Peter Arment, Baird.
彼得·阿門特,貝爾德。
Peter Arment - Analyst
Peter Arment - Analyst
Kathy, Northrop won a really nice contract in December, $3.5 billion for, I think, the follow-on for the E-6 Mercury program.
凱西,諾斯羅普公司 12 月贏得了一項非常好的合同,價值 35 億美元,我認為,這是 E-6 水星計劃的後續項目。
Can you talk a little bit about that win?
你能稍微談談那場勝利嗎?
I know there also were some headlines around protests.
我知道也有一些關於抗議活動的頭條新聞。
Can you confirm whether that â did you get protested or not?
你能確認一下你是否受到抗議嗎?
And just how do we think about the contribution of revenues going forward?
那我們該如何看待未來的收入貢獻呢?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah.
是的。
We call it the TACAMO program, but it's the E-130J, and it will provide nuclear command and control for the U.S. Department of Defense.
我們稱之為 TACAMO 計劃,但它是 E-130J,它將為美國國防部提供核子指揮和控制。
It is contracted through the Navy, it was a $3.5 billion award.
該合約是透過海軍簽訂的,價值 35 億美元。
We have passed the protest period, and we are looking forward â we have started, and we are looking forward to delivering that capability.
我們已經度過了抗議期,我們期待著——我們已經開始,我們期待提供這種能力。
It basically has three major components to it.
它基本上有三個主要組成部分。
In the EMD phase of the contract, we have three systems that we will develop and build the demonstrator units, then we'll have three additional on option for test units and then an LRIP option award of six production aircraft.
在合約的 EMD 階段,我們將開發和建造三個系統作為演示單元,然後我們將有三個額外的測試單元選項,然後是六架生產型飛機的 LRIP 選項獎勵。
And so thatâs what is in the scope of the efforts.
這就是我們所努力的範圍。
We expect about $350 million in revenues this first year and then growing from there.
我們預計第一年的收入約為 3.5 億美元,隨後將繼續成長。
Peter Arment - Analyst
Peter Arment - Analyst
Appreciate that.
非常感謝。
And just as a follow-up.
僅作為後續行動。
There's been a lot of kind of discussions and back and forth of whether NGAD and CCA and what -- how that's going to be reshaped and how is Northrop thinking about the opportunity for either NGAD or CCA?
關於 NGAD 和 CCA 以及將如何重塑以及諾斯羅普如何看待 NGAD 或 CCA 的機會,已經進行過很多討論和反覆。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Well, we're certainly watching that space.
嗯,我們當然在關注那個領域。
And as we have described before, we believe we are well positioned to offer sixth-generation aircraft based on our successful B-21 performance and experience to date.
正如我們之前所描述的,我們相信,憑藉我們迄今為止成功的 B-21 性能和經驗,我們有能力提供第六代飛機。
We are not laying any of that into our forecast at this moment given the uncertainty of timing.
由於時間的不確定性,我們目前還不會將任何這些因素納入我們的預測中。
Particularly the Air Force program, we're not a prime, but we are a contributor to the program through Mission Systems.
特別是空軍計劃,我們不是主要參與者,但我們透過任務系統為該計劃做出貢獻。
For the Navy program, we are looking to see how that program advances through the year and would be excited to be selected if indeed that were to happen.
對於海軍計劃,我們期待看到該計劃在今年的進展情況,如果確實發生這種情況,我們將很高興被選中。
Operator
Operator
Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.
Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。
Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst
Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst
Kathy, could we just go back to international?
凱西,我們可以回到國際嗎?
You talked about the opportunities there and talked about the growth, how that will trend through the remainder of the decade.
您談到了那裡的機遇,談到了成長,以及未來十年的趨勢如何。
We obviously have the broad majority of NATO countries reinvesting in their own defense industrial bases.
顯然,絕大多數北約國家都在對自己的國防工業基礎進行再投資。
Is there a scenario where they start to procure more domestically, maybe for newer programs?
是否存在這樣的情況:他們開始在國內採購更多武器,也許用於較新的項目?
And I mean are you thinking about your international growth coming from existing legacy programs?
我的意思是,您是否考慮過您的國際成長將源自於現有的遺留項目?
Or is there more room for partnering as the NATO countries dial up their spending?
或者說,隨著北約國家加大支出,是否還有更多的合作空間?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Right now, we believe that there is still a strong demand for U.S. products by the NATO countries, particularly to be able to field capability quickly, while the defense industrial base in Europe is reconstituting some of their capabilities.
目前,我們認為北約國家對美國產品仍然有強勁的需求,特別是為了能夠快速部署能力,而歐洲國防工業基地正在重建其部分能力。
And so we are looking at our pipeline, mostly inclusive of U.S. programs of record, where there is an application for those systems with NATO countries I described earlier, IBCS, E-2, and Triton, all of which fall in that category where they are now mature production programs and our NATO allies can receive them fairly quickly and get the benefit of those capabilities.
因此,我們正在審視我們的管道,其中大部分包括美國的在冊項目,其中包括我之前描述的向北約國家提出的那些系統,IBCS、E-2 和 Triton,它們都屬於這一類,現在都是成熟的生產項目,我們的北約盟友可以相當快地接收它們,並從這些能力中受益。
Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst
Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
And then just on -- you mentioned the new industry entrants.
然後剛才您提到了新的行業進入者。
What about -- how are you viewing DOGE?
那麼—您如何看待 DOGE?
And I know it's evolving seemingly on a regular basis here and there's a lot of different tweets.
我知道它似乎定期在這裡發展,並且有很多不同的推文。
But even if we think about contracting changes, moving away from cost plus, are you seeing that risk or opportunities there?
但即使我們考慮簽約發生變化,不再採用成本加成方式,您是否看到了其中的風險或機會?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Net-net, I see more opportunity working with DOGE.
總體而言,我看到了與 DOGE 合作的更多機會。
I believe we all see that there is room for cost efficiency in the way that we work together between industry and government.
我相信我們都看到了工業界和政府之間合作方式具有成本效益的空間。
We embrace the opportunity to share some of our observations and ideas and are starting to do that.
我們抓住機會分享我們的一些觀察和想法,並且已經開始這樣做了。
Operator
Operator
Richard Safran, Seaport Research Partners.
理查德·薩夫蘭(Richard Safran),海港研究夥伴。
Richard Safran - Analyst
Richard Safran - Analyst
So I'd like to ask you to expand a little bit more about your talk about bookings.
因此我想請您進一步詳細談談有關預訂的問題。
You mentioned some of this in international.
您在國際上提到了其中的一些。
More generally, could you discuss the 2025 major opportunities that you're looking at that we should be watching.
更普遍地說,您能否討論一下您所看到的、我們應該關注的 2025 年重大機會。
And more importantly, more specifically, your expectations for full-year bookings, if you think book-to-bill is going to remain above 1x despite a growing top line.
更重要的是,更具體地說,如果您認為儘管營收不斷增長,但訂單出貨比仍將保持在 1 倍以上,那麼您對全年訂單的預期是什麼?
I mean you did report some pretty strong book-to-bill numbers.
我的意思是你確實報告了一些非常強勁的訂單出貨比數字。
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
So, for the second part of the question first, when we think about 2025 book-to-bill, we see it more around the 1x sales, particularly in fact of the strong history of bookings, and some of those being multi-year, so we'll work against that backlog, but we'll also build it back up and be roughly around 1x sales.
因此,首先對於問題的第二部分,當我們考慮 2025 年的訂單出貨比時,我們會看到它更多地圍繞 1 倍銷售額,特別是事實上強勁的預訂歷史,其中一些是多年的,所以我們會針對該積壓進行努力,但我們也會將其重新建立並大致達到 1 倍銷售額左右。
When we think about growth opportunities and award opportunities moving forward, we have opportunities, particularly in Space around restricted activities.
當我們考慮未來的成長機會和獎勵機會時,我們有機會,特別是在受限活動周圍的空間。
We have it on the strategic comms side.
我們在戰略通訊方面擁有它。
We have continued growth as we -- and awards relative to B-21 as we think about advanced procurements and continuing production activities.
當我們考慮先進採購和持續生產活動時,我們繼續成長——並獲得與 B-21 相關的獎項。
And then on Mission Systems, it -- it's a whole host of awards across ground-based sensors and airborne-based sensors when you think about airborne radars, EW systems, as well as communication systems.
然後是任務系統,當你想到機載雷達、電子戰系統以及通訊系統時,它會涉及地面感測器和機載感測器的一系列獎項。
And then DS is, we just recently received IBCS.
然後 DS 是我們最近剛收到 IBCS。
We see IBCS continuing to grow in 2025 as well as numerous awards, particularly around weapon systems and ammunition.
我們預計 IBCS 將在 2025 年繼續成長並獲得許多獎項,特別是在武器系統和彈藥方面。
When we look at that, we're building the backlog.
當我們看到這一點時,我們正在建立積壓工作。
It continues to build.
它還在繼續建造。
We've seen about 15% growth year over year on the weapon system side.
我們看到武器系統方面的年成長率約為15%。
And so those awards continue to roll in as well.
因此這些獎項也不斷湧現。
Operator
Operator
Jason Gursky, Citi.
花旗銀行的傑森‧古爾斯基 (Jason Gursky)。
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Kathy, you spent quite a bit of time upfront talking about the strategy of the company.
Kathy,你前面花了不少時間談論公司的策略。
I was wondering if you could just maybe comment on your top two or three priorities for the year and how you see yourself spending your time and prioritizing the thing -- the implementation of that strategy and what you're going to be really focused on this year?
我想知道您是否可以評論一下您今年的兩三個首要任務,以及您如何安排時間和優先順序——該策略的實施以及您今年真正要關注的是什麼?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Thanks, Jason.
謝謝,傑森。
My priority is very much aligned with what I outlined.
我的優先事項與我所概述的內容非常一致。
I believe the administrationâs priorities are, the first, equipping our military to be the best fighting forces in the world means advancing technologies and our strategy to provide technology differentiation, not just for the benefit of our shareholders in our company being able to grow, but for our customers to be able to fulfill their mission is our top priority.
我認為政府的首要任務是,首先,把我們的軍隊裝備成世界上最好的戰鬥力量意味著要推進技術,而我們提供技術差異化的策略,不僅是為了讓我們公司股東能夠成長,而且為了讓我們的客戶能夠完成他們的使命,這是我們的首要任務。
We also are very focused on efficiency within the company, much like the administration is, and we see this as an opportunity to work together and to get more efficient It's step function improvement in how we are able to execute work so that we can deliver for the war fighter in a more cost-effective and timely way.
我們也非常注重公司內部的效率,就像管理階層一樣,我們將此視為一個共同努力、提高效率的機會。
And then, of course, within the company, deploying our resources to the areas that make the most impact, both for our shareholders and our customers, and we've been very focused on doing that and making smart strategic choices for capital deployment.
然後,當然,在公司內部,我們將資源部署到對股東和客戶影響最大的領域,我們一直非常專注於這樣做,並在資本部署方面做出明智的策略選擇。
So those are the three areas that I'm focused on and will continue to be.
所以這些就是我目前關注並且將持續關注的三個領域。
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Right.
正確的。
Okay.
好的。
Sounds great.
聽起來不錯。
And then just following up maybe on Seth's question about the ecosystem.
然後也許只是跟進塞斯關於生態系統的問題。
And I think you gave some comments on your perspective on the evolving ecosystem.
我認為您對不斷發展的生態系統的看法已經發表了一些評論。
I'm just kind of curious to what you're hearing from the customer and what you're seeing them say and do as it relates to maybe enabling some of these VC-backed defense tech companies, bringing new technologies?
我只是有點好奇,您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼,您看到他們說了什麼、做了什麼,這些與可能為一些風險投資支持的國防科技公司提供新技術有關?
Are we likely to see maybe -- I don't want to say a lowering of standards, but maybe going back to lowest cost technically acceptable kinds of constructs?
我們是否有可能看到——我不想說降低標準,但也許會回到成本最低的技術上可接受的構造?
And what are you seeing them say and do as it relates to trying to enable some of these companies?
在試圖幫助這些公司時,您看到他們說了什麼、做了什麼?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
I still very much see a broad set of acquisition strategies being utilized across the Department of Defense that are matching what the government needs.
我仍然看到國防部正在採用一系列廣泛的收購策略來滿足政府的需求。
Sometimes that is very capable systems that are developmental and innovative by nature.
有時,這是本質上具有發展性和創新性的非常強大的系統。
In other cases, it relies on technology that is lower cost, more commoditized.
在其他情況下,它依賴成本更低、更商品化的技術。
And that has been, and I believe, will continue to be the case.
我相信,這種情況一直存在,並且將繼續存在。
And the Department is implementing strategies that allow them to embrace both, as they should.
而該部門正在實施一些策略,讓他們能夠同時兼顧兩者,這也是他們應該做的。
But the reality is we cannot equip the best fighting force in the world with technology that isn't leading the way, rather than leveraging what is commercially available.
但現實情況是,我們無法用非領先的技術來裝備世界上最優秀的戰鬥力量,而只能利用現有的商業技術。
Operator
Operator
Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.
羅伯特‧斯托拉德 (Robert Stallard),垂直研究。
Robert Stallard - Analyst
Robert Stallard - Analyst
Kathy, just to start off.
凱西,首先我要說一下。
On capital deployment, with a perhaps more relaxed regulatory environment moving forward, does that open the aperture for you with regards to potentially to do more acquisitions?
在資本配置方面,隨著未來監管環境可能更加寬鬆,這是否為您進行更多收購開啟了機會?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
I think it's a little early to say what the regulatory environment will look like, particularly in the area of national security.
我認為現在談論監管環境還為時過早,特別是在國家安全領域。
Certainly, there have been concerns voiced about over-consolidation.
當然,有人對過度整合表示擔憂。
We have new entrants coming into the space.
我們有新進入者進入該領域。
And so the market is opening up some.
因此市場正在逐漸開放。
But I think that, that still will be a consideration as much for the Department of Defense as for the Department of Justice.
但我認為,國防部和司法部仍需同樣考慮這一點。
But with that said, we have been able to manage our portfolio well over these last several years, the acquisition of Orbital ATK, of course, was a terrific add to the company.
但話雖如此,我們在過去幾年裡已經能夠很好地管理我們的投資組合,而收購 Orbital ATK 當然對公司來說是一個極大的鼓舞。
We've done some recent divestitures, and we'll continue to be active in portfolio management in any regulatory environment where we see opportunities to create value for shareholders.
我們最近進行了一些資產剝離,並且我們會在任何監管環境中繼續積極地進行投資組合管理,只要我們發現有機會為股東創造價值。
Robert Stallard - Analyst
Robert Stallard - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then just a quick follow-up for Ken.
然後我們簡單跟進一下 Ken 的情況。
On the Lot 2 LRIP of B-21, were there any accounting or cash flow impacts from that milestone?
對於 B-21 第 2 批 LRIP 項目,該里程碑是否對會計或現金流量產生影響?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
No, we were awarded B-21 in Q4.
不,我們在第四季度獲得了 B-21。
And as we go through our normal detailed program reviews and EAC reviews, no changes there.
當我們進行正常的詳細項目審查和 EAC 審查時,沒有發現任何變化。
And in terms of cash flow, again, we took the charge in 2023.
就現金流而言,我們再次在 2023 年承擔了責任。
Those cash flows and the associated impacts occur over a long duration when you think about the LRIP lots and all of that is accounted for in the guidance that we provide.
當您考慮 LRIP 地段時,這些現金流量及其相關影響會持續很長一段時間,而所有這些都已在我們提供的指導中考慮到。
Operator
Operator
Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.
高塔姆·卡納(Gautam Khanna),TD Cowen。
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Wanted to follow-up on the Mission Systems margin expansion in 2025.
希望跟進 2025 年任務系統利潤率的擴大。
Curious how much mix is a driver of it, mix of cost plus moving to fixed price, does that percentage change materially in 2025 versus '24?
好奇有多少混合是它的驅動因素,成本混合加上轉向固定價格,這個百分比在 2025 年與 24 年相比會發生重大變化嗎?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
So, when we think about Mission Systems '24 to '25, not a significant portion of it is driven by mix.
因此,當我們考慮 24 年至 25 年的任務系統時,我們發現其中很大一部分並不是由混合驅動的。
It's really driven by the performance and the implementation of the efficiencies.
這實際上是由性能和效率的實施所驅動的。
And then as we've scaled the business and as I talked about earlier, the learning and the development that has occurred, that is the driver.
然後,隨著我們業務規模的擴大,正如我之前提到的,我們所獲得的學習和發展就是驅動力。
We do see Mission Systems in terms of mix shifting more towards FFP over the planning period, talk about the next five years, but a gradual shift in the interim.
我們確實看到,在規劃期內,任務系統在組合方面將更多地轉向FFP,談論的是未來五年,但在此期間將逐步轉變。
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Got you.
明白了。
And then just a quick follow-up.
然後只是快速的跟進。
If in fact, there is kind of an end of the Ukraine-Russia hostilities, what impact, if any, would be felt at Northrop and over what time frame?
如果烏克蘭和俄羅斯的敵對狀態確實結束,諾斯羅普會感受到什麼影響(如果有的話),以及會在多大的時間範圍內感受到?
I assume at Defense Systems, but -- just what do you think of that?
我認為是在國防系統,但是—您對此有什麼看法?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah.
是的。
So, our revenue from tactical weapons and the kinds of systems that we would see being directly expended in Ukraine is less than 1% of revenue, just to give you a broad-based context.
因此,我們從戰術武器和直接在烏克蘭使用的系統類型的收入中得到的收益不到總收入的 1%,這只是給你一個廣泛的背景。
And we do believe that there will be a multi-year replenishing of stockpiles associated with those that have been depleted.
我們確實相信,已經耗盡的庫存將需要多年的補充。
So we don't see an immediate ramification.
因此我們看不到立即的後果。
Operator
Operator
Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.
邁爾斯·沃爾頓,沃爾夫研究公司。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Ken, I think when you listed the opportunity set for '25, I don't think I heard F/A-XX, I'm just curious, Kathy or Ken, how are you feeling about the timing and potential for Northrop to be a participant?
肯,我想當你列出 25 年的機會時,我不認為我聽過 F/A-XX,我只是好奇,凱西或肯,你對諾斯羅普成為參與者的時機和潛力有何看法?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yes, Myles.
是的,邁爾斯。
So, when I mentioned the Navy's next-generation fighter, we do believe that the Navy is progressing through source selection, as they had indicated, and they have also shared that we are one of the companies in the source selection.
因此,當我提到海軍的下一代戰鬥機時,我們確實相信海軍正在透過來源選擇取得進展,正如他們所指出的那樣,他們也表示我們是來源選擇中的公司之一。
So we will continue to watch how that unfolds over the course of this year and keep you updated.
因此,我們將繼續關註今年事態的發展,並向您通報最新進展。
There's not much more I can say about it given the restricted nature of the procurement.
鑑於採購的限制性質,我無法再多說。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Okay.
好的。
And then maybe, Ken, on the free cash flow side, thanks for updating for 2027.
然後也許,肯,在自由現金流方面,感謝您對 2027 年的更新。
There has been a $4 billion target for 2028.
2028 年的目標為 40 億美元。
Does the trajectory still align with that $4 billion 2028 target in the future?
未來的軌跡是否仍與 2028 年 40 億美元的目標一致?
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ken Crews - Corporate Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
When we look out in the future and projected cash flows, we are on track to achieving the $4 billion in 2028, so no change there.
當我們展望未來並預測現金流時,我們預計在 2028 年實現 40 億美元的目標,因此沒有變化。
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Hey, Josh, we're going to leave it there.
嘿,喬希,我們就把它留在那裡。
I'll turn it over to Kathy for closing remarks.
我將把發言權交給凱西 (Kathy),請她作最後發言。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks, Todd.
謝謝,托德。
So I want to close by acknowledging the just extraordinary accomplishments of our team in 2024, and I'm particularly grateful for the commitment of our team members in the LA area.
最後,我要對我們團隊在 2024 年取得的非凡成就表示感謝,我特別感謝洛杉磯地區團隊成員的承諾。
I think many of you know, we have over 13,000 employees in that area who are dealing with the wildfire devastation in their local community, and we are so appreciative that they continue to come to work every day and support our mission.
我想很多人都知道,我們在該地區有超過 13,000 名員工,他們正在應對當地社區的山火災害,我們非常感謝他們每天繼續來上班並支持我們的使命。
Our company's innovation, people, investments, and commitment, they sit at the core of this nation's ability to maintain peace through strength.
我們公司的創新、人才、投資和承諾是我們國家以實力維護和平的核心。
And so we remain focused on helping our customers succeed in their most challenging missions.
因此,我們始終專注於幫助我們的客戶成功完成最具挑戰性的任務。
And we're really excited about the year ahead.
我們對未來的一年充滿期待。
So, thank you for joining today's call.
感謝您參加今天的電話會議。
We look forward to talking with you again soon.
我們期待很快再次與您交談。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you for your participation.
感謝您的參與。