諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼 2024 年第一季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。我叫喬什，今天我將成為您的接線生。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

現在我想將電話轉給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Todd Ernst 先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. We'll refer to a presentation that is posted on our IR website this morning. Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2024 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

謝謝喬什，大家早上好，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第一季電話會議。我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們的 IR 網站上的簡報。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議討論的事項，包括 2024 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可獲得的信息做出的判斷。它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. And on the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司實際業績出現重大差異。今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益發布中的 GAAP 業績一致的非 GAAP 財務指標。今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁凱西沃登 (Kathy Warden)；以及我們的財務長戴夫凱弗 (Dave Keffer)。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

這時，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone. It's so good to have you joining us today. So earlier this morning, we released our first quarter results. And as you can see, we are off to a strong start to the year with broad-based growth across our portfolio. The team's relentless execution of our strategy, which includes technology leadership aligned to our customers' priorities and a laser focus on performance has positioned us for continued success. Growing global demand for our capabilities led to an exceptional 9% year-over-year increase in Q1 sales, driven by growth in all 4 of our sectors.

謝謝你，托德。大家，早安。很高興您今天加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了第一季業績。正如您所看到的，我們的投資組合實現了廣泛的成長，今年開局良好。團隊堅持不懈地執行我們的策略，其中包括與客戶優先事項保持一致的技術領先地位以及對性能的高度關注，這使我們能夠持續取得成功。全球對我們能力的需求不斷增長，在我們所有 4 個行業成長的推動下，第一季銷售額年增 9%。

The productivity and cost efficiency measures we've been implementing are gaining traction, and our program performance in the quarter was strong, resulting in segment operating margin dollars increasing by 10%. Operating profit expansion, along with the lower share count helped to drive 15% EPS growth. Overall, our first quarter performance was in line with or better than our expectations, and we are reaffirming our 2024 company level guidance. Global demand for our products continues to be robust, fueled by rising defense budgets and our market position. We're pleased that an agreement was reached on the U.S. fiscal year 2024 defense budget, which includes support for our key programs and represents a 6% growth in investment accounts over 2023.

我們一直在實施的生產力和成本效率措施正在獲得關注，並且我們本季的計劃績效強勁，導致部門營運利潤率增加了 10%。營業利潤擴張以及股份數量減少有助於推動每股收益成長 15%。整體而言，我們第一季的業績符合或優於我們的預期，我們重申 2024 年公司層級的指導。在不斷增長的國防預算和我們的市場地位的推動下，全球對我們產品的需求持續強勁。我們很高興就美國 2024 財年國防預算達成協議，其中包括對我們關鍵項目的支持，並且投資帳戶比 2023 年增長 6%。

In March, the administration released the 2025 defense budget and Future Years Defense Program or FYDP. And these also were consistent with our expectations. We continue to see robust support for our program portfolio in areas that include nuclear modernization, microelectronics, advanced weapons in space. Together, the appropriations in FYDP give us confidence in our longer-term outlook even if we experience a somewhat slower top line growth environment for the U.S. defense budget in the short term.

3 月，政府發布了 2025 年國防預算和未來幾年國防計畫（FYDP）。而這些也都符合我們的預期。我們繼續看到我們的項目組合在核子現代化、微電子、先進太空武器等領域得到了強有力的支持。總之，FYDP 的撥款讓我們對長期前景充滿信心，即使我們在短期內經歷了美國國防預算收入成長放緩的環境。

As we look beyond the domestic market, we continue to see numerous new international opportunities as well. These span a wide range of capabilities across our portfolio, and they provide an additional avenue for sustainable and profitable growth. In the first quarter, Poland signed a letter of acceptance with the U.S. government for an additional implementation of our IBCS product line, known as [Narav]. This represents the short-range air and missile defense portion of Poland's missile defense architecture, and it will augment the medium-range portion, which is currently being deployed. In addition to Poland, we see an IBCS pipeline now of approximately $10 billion from numerous countries who are considering this joint battle management system.

當我們放眼國內市場之外時，我們也繼續看到許多新的國際機會。這些涵蓋了我們產品組合中的廣泛功能，並為永續和獲利成長提供了額外的途徑。第一季度，波蘭與美國政府簽署了一份接受書，同意進一步實施我們的 IBCS 產品線，即 [Narav]。這代表了波蘭飛彈防禦體系結構的短程防空和飛彈防禦部分，並將增強目前正在部署的中程部分。除了波蘭之外，我們還看到許多國家正在考慮建立一個價值約 100 億美元的 IBCS 管道，這些國家正在考慮建立這種聯合作戰管理系統。

Another important suite of international opportunities for Northrop Grumman is sensor modernization of fourth-generation aircraft. This includes our IVEWS electronic warfare offering, which leverages the U.S. program of record. IVEWS has been down selected by 2 international partners, and we are in discussions with 7 other countries. Overall, IVEWS has the potential to be a new multibillion-dollar product line for us. We're also well positioned to address emerging international opportunities for autonomous systems.

諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的另一項重要國際機會是第四代飛機的傳感器現代化。這包括我們的 IVEWS 電子戰產品，它利用了美國的記錄計劃。 IVEWS已被2個國際合作夥伴選中，我們正在與其他7個國家進行討論。總體而言，IVEWS 有潛力成為我們價值數十億美元的新產品線。我們也能夠很好地應對自主系統的新興國際機會。

The first of 4 Triton aircraft is expected to be delivered to Australia later this year. In addition, NATO is actively looking to expand its maritime surveillance capabilities, enabling a higher degree of interoperability amongst allied nations. We believe our Triton program is well suited to meet these requirements, providing an opportunity for up to 5 aircraft. And we see additional Triton opportunities emerging elsewhere in Europe.

4 架 Triton 飛機中的第一架預計將於今年稍後交付澳洲。此外，北約正在積極尋求擴大其海上監視能力，以實現盟國之間更高程度的互通性。我們相信我們的 Triton 計劃非常適合滿足這些要求，為最多 5 架飛機提供了機會。我們也看到歐洲其他地方出現了更多 Triton 機會。

There also continues to be an uptrend in U.S. and allied partner demand for missile products and ammunition. This includes several significant ammunition opportunities for allies that in aggregate have the potential to support further growth in our Defense Systems portfolio at solid margins. And this week, the U.S. Congress has supplemental funding bill, which includes munitions procurement and missile product capacity expansion.

美國及其盟國對飛彈產品和彈藥的需求也持續呈上升趨勢。這包括為盟友提供幾個重要的彈藥機會，這些機會總體上有潛力以可觀的利潤支持我們的國防系統產品組合的進一步增長。而本週，美國國會又提出了補充資金法案，其中包括軍需品採購和飛彈產品產能擴張等內容。

As we shared in our prior calls, to meet growing demand across our weapon systems business, we have been investing in our largest solid rocket motor production facility over the past 5 years, and we have now tripled our production capacity for tactical SRMs. Technology leadership is an important part of our business strategy. And we've been investing to maintain our lead in microelectronics for defense applications. To further this objective, we recently established the Northrop Grumman Microelectronics Center, which brings together our microelectronic capability from across the company into one organization. It will be led by our Mission Systems business, where over 80% of their revenue is enabled by our innovation and investments in microelectronics.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中所分享的那樣，為了滿足我們武器系統業務不斷增長的需求，我們在過去5 年裡一直在投資建設我們最大的固體火箭發動機生產設施，現在我們的戰術SRM 生產能力已增加了兩倍。技術領先是我們業務策略的重要組成部分。我們一直在投資以保持我們在國防應用微電子領域的領先地位。為了進一步實現這一目標，我們最近建立了諾斯羅普·格魯曼微電子中心，該中心將整個公司的微電子能力整合到一個組織中。它將由我們的任務系統業務部門領導，該部門超過 80% 的收入來自我們在微電子領域的創新和投資。

Today, our U.S. microelectronics facilities produce over 1 million microchips a year with tailored design, fabrication and advanced packaging needed to support the most advanced defense systems and sensors. We also work with leading-edge technology developers in the commercial space, like NVIDIA to incorporate their technology into our national security solutions. In addition to advancement in capability, we are expanding our capacity in this important technology area.

如今，我們的美國微電子工廠每年生產超過 100 萬個微晶片，採用客製化設計、製造和先進封裝來支援最先進的防禦系統和感測器。我們也與 NVIDIA 等商業領域的領先技術開發商合作，將他們的技術納入我們的國家安全解決方案中。除了能力的進步之外，我們還在這重要技術領域中擴大我們的能力。

In the quarter, we held a groundbreaking ceremony for our new advanced electronics facility in Waynesboro, Virginia. With this $200 million investment, we are increasing our ability to manufacture and test advanced electronics and mission solutions. As I mentioned earlier, we are laser-focused on performance and driving cost efficiencies in our business. This includes deploying systems and tools that help enable increased productivity across our business.

本季度，我們在維吉尼亞州韋恩斯伯勒舉行了新的先進電子工廠奠基儀式。透過這筆 2 億美元的投資，我們正在提高製造和測試先進電子設備和任務解決方案的能力。正如我之前提到的，我們非常注重業務績效並提高成本效率。這包括部署有助於提高整個企業生產力的系統和工具。

In the first quarter, we completed the implementation of a significant financial ERP upgrade, which consolidated multiple versions of our prior system, and it will significantly improve the efficiency of our operations. This new system provides a foundation that supports many of the other digital transformation initiatives. And it plays an integral role in our longer-term margin expansion strategy. The upgrade, as you would understand, was a massive undertaking that was achieved with minimal disruption to our business. It's really a credit to the entire team who worked tirelessly to achieve this outcome.

一季度，我們完成了財務ERP重大升級的實施，整合了原有系統的多個版本，將顯著提高我們的營運效率。這個新系統為支持許多其他數位轉型措施奠定了基礎。它在我們的長期利潤擴張策略中發揮著不可或缺的作用。正如您所理解的，這次升級是一項艱鉅的任務，但對我們業務的影響最小。這確實是整個團隊的功勞，他們為實現這項成果而不懈努力。

We also continue to proactively address our overhead costs and indirect rates to drive affordability for our customers. We saw benefits of this in the first quarter, particularly in production programs at both AS and DS. Efficiency in both direct and indirect cost management continues to be a priority across the company.

我們也持續積極解決間接費用和間接費率問題，以提高客戶的負擔能力。我們在第一季看到了這一點的好處，特別是在 AS 和 DS 的生產計劃中。直接和間接成本管理的效率仍然是整個公司的首要任務。

Program execution is another area of particular emphasis in 2024. In our space sector, after rapid growth over the last several years, we are keenly focused on delivering key capabilities for our customers, executing our extensive backlog and generating strong returns in the process. This includes the progress we're making on the Sentinel program. We're continuing to execute the EMD phase of the program, and we've made solid progress on design and development activities for the facilities and support equipment as well as the missile itself.

專案執行是2024 年另一個特別強調的領域。回報。這包括我們在 Sentinel 計劃上取得的進展。我們正在繼續執行該計劃的 EMD 階段，並且我們在設施和支援設備以及導彈本身的設計和開發活動方面取得了紮實的進展。

The Nunn-McCurdy review is continuing, and we are providing support to the Department of Defense in that process as well. It's a complex undertaking to modernize the U.S. strategic deterrent, which requires delivering the most advanced capabilities in the world to form the basis of that deterrent. We're honored to be part of this vital mission, so we're partnering with our customers in bringing the focus, resources and talent needed to deliver on those commitments.

納恩-麥科迪審查仍在繼續，我們也在這過程中向國防部提供支持。實現美國戰略威懾現代化是一項複雜的任務，需要提供世界上最先進的能力來構成這種威懾的基礎。我們很榮幸能夠成為這項重要使命的一部分，因此我們正在與客戶合作，提供實現這些承諾所需的重點、資源和人才。

Finally, I'd like to provide an update on our capital deployment strategy. First and foremost, we are investing in capabilities that meet our customers' needs to address rapidly evolving threats. This year, we continue to expect that we'll invest roughly $1.8 billion in capital expenditures bringing our total investment to nearly $8 billion since the beginning of 2020. These investments have contributed to our strong growth performance and outlook. At the same time, we are efficiently returning capital to shareholders, including nearly $1.5 billion in the first quarter.

最後，我想介紹一下我們的資本部署策略的最新情況。首先也是最重要的是，我們正在投資滿足客戶需求的能力，以應對快速變化的威脅。今年，我們繼續預計將投資約 18 億美元的資本支出，使我們自 2020 年初以來的總投資達到近 80 億美元。同時，我們正在有效率地向股東返還資本，其中第一季資本返還近 15 億美元。

So in summary, with a broad portfolio of well-supported programs continued new domestic and international opportunities, a relentless focus on performance and a capital deployment strategy designed to create value for customers and shareholders alike. Northrop Grumman is well positioned for the future.

總而言之，憑藉廣泛的、得到良好支持的計劃組合，不斷有新的國內和國際機會、對業績的不懈關注以及旨在為客戶和股東創造價值的資本部署策略。諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司為未來做好了充分準備。

So with that, I'd like to hand the call over to Dave, and he's going to cover some of the details of our financial performance and outlook before we take your questions. Dave?

因此，我想將電話轉交給戴夫，在我們回答您的問題之前，他將介紹我們財務表現和前景的一些細節。戴夫？

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. As Kathy highlighted, we're off to a strong start to the year. Sales, operating income and EPS all increased meaningfully from the first quarter of 2023 as we execute on our backlog and drive efficiencies in our business.

謝謝，大家早安。正如凱西所強調的，我們今年有一個好的開始。隨著我們執行積壓訂單並提高業務效率，自 2023 年第一季以來，銷售額、營業收入和每股盈餘均大幅成長。

Starting with our top line results on Slide 4 in our earnings deck. First quarter sales increased 9% to $10.1 billion. We were pleased to deliver higher Q1 sales at all 4 of our segments. These results were ahead of our initial projections for the first quarter, due in part to the timing of material volume on certain programs. With that in mind, we expect a more gradual ramp in our quarterly sales profile than in the past few years. I'll address the factors contributing to this as I walk through updates to our segment guidance.

從我們收益表中投影片 4 上的頂線結果開始。第一季銷售額成長 9%，達到 101 億美元。我們很高興在所有 4 個細分市場中實現了更高的第一季銷售額。這些結果超出了我們對第一季的初步預測，部分原因是某些計劃的材料量時間安排。考慮到這一點，我們預計季度銷售狀況將比過去幾年更緩慢地成長。當我逐步更新我們的細分指南時，我將討論導致此問題的因素。

As AS sales were particularly strong, up 18%, driven by higher volume on the B-21 program as well as on mature production programs like F-35. Defense Systems sales increased 3%, primarily due to growth on multiple programs in our weapons business, and as expected, were partially offset by lower volume on an international training program.

由於 B-21 項目以及 F-35 等成熟生產項目的銷售增加，AS 銷售尤其強勁，成長了 18%。國防系統銷售額成長了 3%，主要是由於我們武器業務的多個專案的成長，正如預期的那樣，部分被國際培訓專案銷售的下降所抵消。

Mission Systems sales grew by 4%, led by rapid growth on advanced microelectronics programs in our restricted portfolio, partially offset by lower volume on SABR. And sales at space increased by 9% with broad-based growth throughout the portfolio, including on the SDA transport layer programs as they continue to ramp.

任務系統銷售額成長了 4%，這主要得益於我們受限產品組合中先進微電子專案的快速成長，但部分被 SABR 銷售下降所抵消。隨著整個產品組合的廣泛成長，太空銷售額成長了 9%，其中包括 SDA 傳輸層專案的持續成長。

Turning to the bottom line. We remain laser-focused on performance. In Q1, we generated segment operating income of $1.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10%. Margin rate was also solid at 10.9%. As we've outlined on previous earnings calls, we expect to increase our margin rate over time as mix shifts favorably, macro conditions improve and productivity measures continue to bear fruit. Aeronautics operating income increased 25% for an operating margin rate of 10%. Efficient indirect rate performance, driven by productivity initiatives and careful cost management helped to generate a healthy volume of favorable net EAC adjustments. These adjustments were recognized across the AS portfolio but primarily benefited mature production programs.

轉向底線。我們仍然高度關注性能。第一季度，我們實現分部營業收入 11 億美元，年增 10%。保證金率也穩定在 10.9%。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上所概述的那樣，隨著時間的推移，隨著組合的有利變化、宏觀條件的改善以及生產力措施的持續取得成果，我們預計將提高我們的利潤率。航空業務營業收入成長 25%，營業利益率為 10%。在生產力計劃和謹慎的成本管理的推動下，高效的間接利率績效有助於產生大量有利的淨 EAC 調整。這些調整在整個 AS 產品組合中得到了認可，但主要受益於成熟的生產計劃。

On B-21, there were no significant changes to our EACs, and we continue to make good progress in the test phase of the EMD program and on the build of the LRIP production units in flow. We have finalized negotiations with additional suppliers on the LRIP phase of the program and are in the late stages of negotiations with the remaining.

在 B-21 上，我們的 EAC 沒有發生重大變化，我們在 EMD 計劃的測試階段和 LRIP 生產單元的建設方面繼續取得良好進展。我們已經與其他供應商就該計劃的 LRIP 階段完成了談判，並且與其餘供應商的談判已進入後期階段。

Defense Systems operating income grew 11%. They also benefited from favorable mix and indirect rate performance, driving their OM rate to 12.5%. At Mission Systems, segment operating income increased 5% and margin rate increased 20 basis points to 14.2%. MS' OM rate benefited from favorable mix on higher-margin advanced microelectronics programs, partially offset by lower net favorable EAC adjustments. We see opportunities to further improve performance at MS, driven by operational efficiencies and investments we've made in our factories. Lastly, space operating income increased 6% and its margin rate was a solid 9.1%.

國防系統公司營業收入成長 11%。他們也受益於有利的組合和間接利率表現，將 OM 利率推至 12.5%。 Mission Systems 部門的營業收入成長了 5%，利潤率成長了 20 個基點，達到 14.2%。 MS 的 OM 率受益於利潤率較高的先進微電子項目的有利組合，部分被較低的淨有利 EAC 調整所抵消。在營運效率和我們對工廠的投資的推動下，我們看到了進一步提高 MS 績效的機會。最後，航太營運收入成長了 6%，利潤率為 9.1%。

Moving to earnings per share on Slide 6. Diluted EPS were $6.32 in Q1, an increase of 15% from the prior year. The increase was driven by our strong growth in segment performance as well as from higher net pension income and a lower share count.

轉到幻燈片 6 上的每股收益。這一增長是由於我們部門業績的強勁增長以及更高的淨養老金收入和更少的股票數量所推動的。

Turning to cash flow. We're pleased with our cash performance. particularly in light of our ERP conversion that went live in the first quarter. This was a significant undertaking that will help to drive additional efficiencies in our business over time.

轉向現金流。我們對我們的現金表現感到滿意。特別是考慮到我們第一季上線的 ERP 轉換。這是一項重大任務，隨著時間的推移，將有助於提高我們業務的效率。

Q1 free cash flow was an outflow of approximately $1 billion, and we expect a strong quarter of cash generation in Q2. This profile is consistent with our seasonal pattern of generating the majority of our free cash flow in the second half of the year.

第一季自由現金流流出約 10 億美元，我們預期第二季現金產生將強勁。這一情況與我們下半年產生大部分自由現金流的季節性模式一致。

Moving to guidance. We are reaffirming our 2024 company level guidance and have a few updates at the segment level. We continue to project a book-to-bill ratio close to 1x for the year. Note, we expect a higher ratio at AS, DS and MS and a lower ratio at space, given all the backlog growth that has generated in recent years and flattening U.S. space budgets. At the company level, we expect our second quarter sales and segment margin volume to be roughly in line with the strong Q1 results with modest expansion in the second half. We expect the quarterly profile to vary at the segment level, so I'll take a moment to provide some additional color.

轉向指導。我們重申 2024 年公司層面的指導，並在細分市場層面進行了一些更新。我們繼續預計今年的訂單出貨將比接近 1 倍。請注意，考慮到近年來積壓訂單的增長以及美國太空預算的趨平，我們預計 AS、DS 和 MS 的比率會較高，而太空的比率會較低。在公司層面，我們預計第二季的銷售額和部門利潤率將與第一季的強勁業績大致一致，下半年將適度擴張。我們預計季度概況會在細分市場層面有所不同，因此我將花點時間提供一些額外的資訊。

First, DS and MS sales and margin dollars are expected to ramp throughout the year, generally consistent with prior year patterns. Restricted programs in MS continue to expand, and the DS Weapons business has significant demand that Kathy described, which should lead to further second half growth.

首先，DS 和 MS 的銷售額和利潤率預計全年都會增加，與去年的模式基本一致。 MS 中的受限項目繼續擴大，而 DS 武器業務有著凱西所描述的巨大需求，這應該會導致下半年的進一步成長。

Our margin rate guidance was adjusted slightly higher at DS and slightly lower at MS, reflecting our Q1 performance and latest expectations for the remainder of the year. At aeronautics, we are increasing our sales guidance to the mid-$11 billion to reflect our strong Q1 results and our latest projections for B-21 sales timing. But the quarterly sales profile is projected to be different this year than it was in 2023. The timing of materials volume, primarily on F-35 and B-21, drove additional Q1 sales. So we'd expect a flatter profile through the remaining quarters. As our full year guidance indicates, AS margin rates are expected to be lower in subsequent quarters based on business mix and the strength of Q1 EAC adjustments. For the full year, we continue to expect margins in the mid-9% range.

我們對 DS 的保證金率指導值進行了小幅調整，對 MS 的保證金率指導值進行了小幅調整，這反映了我們第一季的業績以及對今年剩餘時間的最新預期。在航空領域，我們將銷售指引提高至 110 億美元左右，以反映我們強勁的第一季業績以及對 B-21 銷售時間的最新預測。但預計今年的季度銷售情況將與 2023 年有所不同。因此，我們預計剩餘季度的業績將趨於平穩。正如我們的全年指引所示，根據業務組合和第一季 EAC 調整的力度，預計後續季度的 AS 保證金率將較低。我們預計全年利潤率將繼續保持在 9% 左右。

And at Space, we're lowering our sales guidance to the low to mid $14 billion, which roughly reflects 3% annual growth. Sales volume is now expected to trend lower over the remaining quarters of 2024, reflecting the NGI decision and the contract termination and restricted space that we noted last quarter. This is expected to be partially offset by continued growth in Sentinel and the SDA portfolio. Below the segment line, we are reaffirming our company-level guidance reflecting the strength of our broad portfolio. We continue to expect corporate unallocated costs to be weighted toward the second half of the year, consistent with prior years.

在 Space，我們將銷售指引下調至 140 億美元中低端，這大致反映了 3% 的年增長率。目前預計 2024 年剩餘季度的銷售將呈下降趨勢，這反映了 NGI 的決定以及我們上季度注意到的合約終止和空間限制。 Sentinel 和 SDA 投資組合的持續成長預計將部分抵消這一影響。在分部線下方，我們重申了公司層面的指導，反映了我們廣泛投資組合的實力。我們繼續預期企業未分配成本將在今年下半年加權，與往年一致。

Interest expense will also be higher in future quarters due to the additional debt issuance in Q1, and we continue to project an effective tax rate around 17%. As we've noted before, we're monitoring any changes in tax legislation and any updates in our tax appeals processes, that by their nature, are not factored into our guidance.

由於第一季額外發行債務，未來幾季的利息支出也將更高，我們繼續預期有效稅率在 17% 左右。正如我們之前指出的，我們正在監控稅務立法的任何變化以及稅務上訴流程的任何更新，但就其性質而言，這些變化並未納入我們的指導中。

And as a reminder, we completed a $2.5 billion debt offering at attractive rates shortly after the filing of our 10-K. The proceeds will be used in part to retire $1.5 billion of notes that are maturing in January 2025, as well as for general corporate purposes, including share repurchases. We initiated a $1 billion accelerated share repurchase in Q1, which is now nearly complete. In total, including our open market purchases, our Q1 repurchases were $1.2 billion. For the full year, we have increased our expectations for share repurchases to greater than $2 billion.

提醒一下，我們在提交 10-K 申請後不久就以有吸引力的利率完成了 25 億美元的債務發行。所得款項將部分用於償還 2025 年 1 月到期的 15 億美元票據，以及用於一般公司用途，包括股票回購。我們在第一季發起了 10 億美元的加速股票回購，目前已接近完成。包括我們的公開市場購買在內，我們第一季的回購總額為 12 億美元。我們將全年股票回購預期提高至 20 億美元以上。

We also remain committed to providing a strong and growing dividend. Our capital deployment plans are enabled by our ability to generate strong and predictable cash flows in our diverse and durable portfolio. We continue to project industry-leading investments in our business to support our customers while returning excess cash to shareholders. We're confident that this business strategy will create value for all our stakeholders.

我們也持續致力於提供強勁且不斷成長的股息。我們的資本部署計畫得益於我們在多元化和持久的投資組合中產生強勁且可預測的現金流的能力。我們繼續對我們的業務進行行業領先的投資，以支持我們的客戶，同時向股東返還多餘的現金。我們相信，這項業務策略將為所有利害關係人創造價值。

In summary, we're off to a great start to the year, and we remain upbeat about our long-term outlook.

總而言之，我們今年開了個好頭，我們對長期前景仍然樂觀。

And with that, let's open the call for questions.

接下來，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

Kathy, if you could speak to just maybe a little more detail in that $95 billion supplemental, what potentially is in there for Northrop given everything you guys have been doing in those related businesses.

凱西，如果您能在 950 億美元的補充文件中更詳細地談談，考慮到您在這些相關業務中所做的一切，諾斯羅普公司可能會獲得什麼。

Yes. Well, as I noted, we are pleased that the supplemental did pass this week. And as we are looking through it. There are a number of areas that align to our program portfolio. Some where we are prime in weapons programs, others where we are a supplier of solid rocket motors. And then there is a line for additional capacity expansion. I talked about the capacity expansion that we have done for solid rocket motors in our largest production facility that over the last several years has enabled us to triple capacity, there is additional funding that would take that capacity even higher and reflects what's needed to support those programs that are funded in the supplemental.

是的。嗯，正如我所指出的，我們很高興補充草案本週獲得通過。當我們正在研究它時。有許多領域與我們的專案組合相符。在某些國家，我們是武器計畫的主導者，在其他國家，我們是固體火箭發動機的供應商。然後還有一條用於額外擴容的生產線。我談到了我們在最大的生產設施中對固體火箭發動機進行的產能擴張，在過去的幾年裡，我們的產能擴大了兩倍，還有額外的資金將使該產能更高，並反映了支持這些產能所需的資金補充計畫中所資助的項目。

So we are bullish on the opportunity to fulfill that demand through both the investments we've made and the additional capacity that we can lay in over these coming months and years.

因此，我們看好透過我們所做的投資以及我們在未來幾個月和幾年內可以投入的額外產能來滿足這一需求的機會。

And maybe just a quick follow-on, if I may. With the push out to F/A-XX, I mean how does that have -- like what strategic impact does that have on the Aeronautics business?

如果可以的話，也許只是一個快速的後續行動。隨著 F/A-XX 的推出，我的意思是這對航空業務有何策略影響？

There are a number of opportunities in aeronautics that we are pursuing that being one of them. It doesn't really have an impact on our near-term outlook for that business. As we shared today, we're raising the sales guidance for that business this year, and that's really on the strength of the current portfolio and the growth that we continue to see there, but we will continue to pursue additive opportunities that maybe program being one of them.

我們正在尋求航空領域的許多機會，這就是其中之一。它並沒有真正影響我們對該業務的近期前景。正如我們今天分享的，我們今年將提高該業務的銷售指導，這實際上取決於當前投資組合的實力以及我們繼續看到的增長，但我們將繼續尋求額外的機會，這些機會可能是其中之一。

Our next question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

You talked a little bit about outlook for book-to-bill this year and backlog was down in each segment in Q1. I understand some of the space issues. But on AS, DS and MS, if you're looking at a book-to-bill of above 1 for the year, can you talk about where that's likely to come from? What will drive those business units since that the backlog was down in Q1?

您談到了今年訂單到帳單的前景，第一季每個細分市場的積壓訂單都有所下降。我了解一些空間問題。但在 AS、DS 和 MS 上，如果您看到當年的訂單出貨比高於 1，您能談談這可能來自哪裡嗎？自第一季積壓訂單減少以來，什麼將推動這些業務部門的發展？

Yes. Doug, as we've talked about before, awards can be very lumpy, and so we tend to look at our book-to-bill over a longer stretch of time. And our last 2 years have been well over 1, so we expected this first quarter to be lighter and we had signaled that. As we look at the full year, we still believe that we'll be near 1. And it's largely going to be driven by our shorter-cycle businesses, so think Commission Systems and Defense Systems and space will clearly be the lowest as we digest the NGI loss and, of course, the cancellation that we had in the first quarter. But I'll remind you, our space business has nearly doubled over the last 4 years, and the book-to-bill there has been incredibly strong. So they're still carrying a large backlog of business that supports the growth rates that we're projecting for them.

是的。道格，正如我們之前談到的，獎項可能非常不穩定，因此我們傾向於在更長的時間內審視我們的書籍到帳單。我們過去的兩年已經遠遠超過 1，所以我們預計第一季會比較輕鬆，並且我們已經發出了信號。當我們展望全年時，我們仍然相信我們將接近 1。的損失，當然還有第一季的取消。但我要提醒您的是，我們的太空業務在過去 4 年裡幾乎翻了一番，而且訂單出貨量也非常強勁。因此，他們仍然有大量積壓的業務，支持我們為他們預測的成長率。

Well, and then just on space, you mentioned the importance of Sentinel and you've talked over the last quarter about some of the Nunn-McCurdy breach and those issues. But when you look at the Air Force moving the IOC schedule back by 2 years, how does that affect your growth path on Sentinel?

好吧，然後就空間而言，您提到了 Sentinel 的重要性，並且您在上個季度談到了一些 Nunn-McCurdy 漏洞和這些問題。但是，當您看到空軍將 IOC 時間表推遲了 2 年時，這對您在 Sentinel 上的發展道路有何影響？

We had talked about Sentinel growth coming flattening out for a few years and then returning to growth as we moved into the production phase later in the decade that still holds true. That timing has, of course, moved as the program schedule is moving, but the profile still is quite similar to what we have been discussing. And it was so far out in the future, it really wasn't in any of the projections that we had in '24 or even '25. It was well beyond that. Still a healthy ramp is expected for that program, and we are laser-focused on delivering and meeting the schedule commitments that we are working towards with the Air Force.

我們曾討論過 Sentinel 的成長將在幾年內趨於平緩，然後隨著我們在十年後進入生產階段而恢復成長，這仍然適用。當然，隨著節目時間表的變化，時間也發生了變化，但概況仍然與我們一直在討論的非常相似。而且它是遙遠的未來，它確實不在我們 24 年甚至 25 年的任何預測中。遠遠超出了這個範圍。該計劃仍有望實現健康成長，我們將專注於交付和履行我們與空軍共同努力的時間表承諾。

Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格。

The Air Force lowered its near-term requested funding levels for B-21 in the fiscal year '25 budget proposal. And they talked about lower negotiated prices on low rate production. How does this change alter the economics of the program and risks of incremental charges?

空軍在 25 財年預算提案中降低了 B-21 的近期資金需求水準。他們也談到了低產量下的較低談判價格。這項變更如何改變該計劃的經濟性和增量收費的風險？

It doesn't change the economics of the program. What happened is the budget was set based on the independent cost estimates. And as we move towards the contract phase where LRIP was exercised the first option, the government is now reconciling to our contract value. There was no change in price schedule quantities. It's just a reflection of them moving off of an independent cost estimate and moving to our contract value, which, of course, was lower than their independent cost estimates.

它不會改變該計劃的經濟性。實際情況是預算是根據獨立的成本估算制定的。當我們進入合約階段時，LRIP 是第一個選擇權，政府現在正在與我們的合約價值進行協調。價格表數量沒有變動。這只是他們從獨立成本估算轉向我們的合約價值的反映，當然，我們的合約價值低於他們的獨立成本估算。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Kathy, I wanted to ask about DS. Maybe can you talk about the puts and takes there just given supply chain as well as services and incremental opportunities such as IBCS and Missile Systems. How do you think about the trajectory just given some of the positive movements we've seen in missiles, initial defense and obviously, supplementals and the driver of potential margin improvement there?

凱西，我想問一下 DS 的事。也許您可以談談給定供應鏈以及服務和增量機會（例如 IBCS 和飛彈系統）的看跌選擇權和拿貨。考慮到我們在導彈、初始防禦以及顯然的補充和潛在利潤改善的驅動因素方面看到的一些積極變化，您如何看待這一軌跡？

Yes. So our Defense Systems portfolio has been undergoing a transformation over the past several years. As you know, we divested the services business, and we still have a sustainment and modernization business. That business has been flattish. And this year, we talked about a headwind in that business to growth associated with an international training program. You see that weighing a bit on first quarter growth in DS being 3%. Over time, we expect that growth rate to reflect the other 2 portions of the business more and more as that mix shifts toward weapons and our battle management portfolio. That's where IBCS sits.

是的。因此，我們的防禦系統產品組合在過去幾年中一直在經歷轉型。如您所知，我們剝離了服務業務，但我們仍然擁有維持和現代化業務。那項業務一直表現平平。今年，我們討論了該業務與國際培訓計劃相關的成長阻力。您會發現，這對 DS 第一季 3% 的成長產生了一定影響。隨著時間的推移，我們預計隨著業務組合轉向武器和戰鬥管理產品組合，成長率將越來越多地反映業務的其他兩個部分。這就是 IBCS 的所在地。

I spoke on today's call about some of those opportunities, both domestically and internationally in the weapons and the IBCS portfolios. And so we expect those to contribute to growth, and they are also higher margin than our sustainment business. So as that mix shifts, so will margins improve.

我在今天的電話會議上談到了國內和國際武器和 IBCS 產品組合中的一些機會。因此，我們預期這些業務將為成長做出貢獻，而且它們的利潤率也高於我們的維持業務。因此，隨著這種組合的變化，利潤率也會提高。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Kathy, I wanted to ask on autonomous aircraft and the CCA program, we saw last night the news about Anduril selection along with General Atomics. And I was wondering if you can -- with that news, maybe update us on Northrop's strategy to capture a new work in the autonomous space.

凱西，我想問一下有關自主飛機和 CCA 計劃的問題，我們昨晚看到了有關 Anduril 和通用原子公司選擇的新聞。我想知道你是否可以透過這個消息向我們介紹諾斯羅普在自主空間中捕捉新作品的策略的最新情況。

Yes. So we're obviously disappointed to learn that we weren't selected on this phase of the CCA program. The -- as Air Force has described this acquisition strategy as a continuous competition and they're already outlining future phases. So we'll see what that presents in terms of future entry point. We also see the other services in the U.S., and I talked about international partners as well, continuing to look to add to their autonomous vehicle fleet. And so we are pursuing those opportunities.

是的。因此，當我們得知我們沒有被選入這一階段的 CCA 計劃時，我們顯然感到很失望。空軍將這種採購策略描述為一場持續的競爭，並且他們已經概述了未來的階段。因此，我們將看看未來的切入點會帶來什麼。我們還看到了美國的其他服務，我也談到了國際合作夥伴，他們繼續尋求增加他們的自動駕駛車隊。因此，我們正在尋求這些機會。

We haven't learned anything at this point that fundamentally changes our strategy in autonomy, but we'll monitor how the CCA program progresses and will incorporate any learnings that we have into those future opportunities. And for us, you didn't ask, but this phase of the program was relatively small. We didn't have it assumed in our plan. So there's no impact to the guidance that we shared this morning for the AS sector.

目前我們還沒有學到任何從根本上改變我們自主策略的東西，但我們將監控 CCA 計劃的進展，並將我們所學到的任何知識融入未來的機會中。而對我們來說，你沒有問，但是這個階段的計畫相對較小。我們的計劃中沒有假設這一點。因此，我們今天早上分享的 AS 行業指引沒有受到影響。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then maybe a follow-up on it. When you think about where you want to be focused in autonomy. I guess the legacy of the company is more on the exquisite side, and there will probably be some demand for that, but also demand for quantity and -- which requires affordability. Do you plan to pursue opportunities in both of those submarkets or really focus more on that kind of legacy exquisite piece of the market?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後也許會有後續行動。當你思考你想在自主方面集中精力。我想公司的遺產更多的是精緻的一面，可能會有一些需求，但也有對數量的需求——這需要負擔能力。您是否打算在這兩個子市場中尋求機會，還是真正更專注於那種傳統精緻的市場？

We are obviously working toward affordability in our product line, so we do not want to be viewed as only offering exquisite and expensive technology. So we've been working to drive down the cost of our offerings, and I think we had quite a compelling offering on CCA and can compete in that marketplace. We are really positioned to provide the best solutions that our customer needs against a high-end threat, however, we are not looking to compete in a more commoditized part of the market that's very low cost and not survivable systems. That's just not our business model, and we know that. So we'll remain disciplined in where we invest in the pieces of the market that we pursue, but we think that what we provide is still highly relevant.

顯然，我們正在努力提高產品線的可負擔性，因此我們不希望被視為只提供精緻且昂貴的技術。因此，我們一直在努力降低產品成本，我認為我們在 CCA 上提供了相當引人注目的產品，並且可以在該市場上競爭。我們確實有能力提供客戶應對高端威脅所需的最佳解決方案，但是，我們並不打算在成本非常低且無法生存的系統的更加商品化的市場部分進行競爭。這不是我們的商業模式，我們知道這一點。因此，我們將在投資我們所追求的市場領域時保持嚴格，但我們認為我們提供的產品仍然具有高度相關性。

Our next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

Kathy, I wanted to ask about MS margins. A couple of years ago, we were running in the 15 level, they stepped down a little bit last year. You took down a margin guide there. Can you just kind of talk about what's driving the lower margins? Is it just solely mix that's driving the lower margin in that MS?

凱西，我想問 MS 利潤率。幾年前，我們在15級，去年他們退了一點。你在那裡記下了保證金指南。能談談是什麼導致了利潤率下降嗎？是否只是混合因素導致該款 MS 的利潤率較低？

It's a bit of mix as we've been talking about. They have a higher cost plus mix now than they have historically, and we expect that to shift over time, but they are still at a high watermark. And there also is a productivity element to the story. We've talked about supply chain disruption as we have ramped and we are also increasing the scale of that business. You see a mid-single-digit level growth in Mission Systems. But with price coming down on microelectronics, it's actually a much higher volume ramp than is reflected in the total sales growth of the business.

正如我們一直在談論的那樣，它有點混合。它們現在的成本加成比歷史上更高，我們預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改變，但它們仍然處於高水位線。這個故事也涉及生產力因素。我們已經討論了隨著我們的擴張而導致的供應鏈中斷，我們也在擴大該業務的規模。您會看到任務系統出現中等個位數的成長。但隨著微電子產品價格的下降，銷售成長實際上比業務總銷售成長所反映的要高得多。

So as we have climbed that ramp, productivity has taken a bit of a dip. But as we said, we're focused on getting back to our prior performance levels at now this higher volume level, and we see that as something this team is very capable of doing. And that's why you see a margin profile that always is start a little slower and ramp through the year for MS, but you'll see it again reflected this year based on those productivity improvements that we expect to achieve throughout the year.

因此，當我們爬上坡道時，生產力下降。但正如我們所說，我們的重點是在現在更高的產量水平上恢復到先前的性能水平，我們認為這個團隊非常有能力做到這一點。這就是為什麼您會看到微軟的利潤率在開始時總是稍慢一些，然後在全年中逐漸增加，但今年您會看到它再次反映在我們預計全年實現的生產力改進的基礎上。

Okay. Got it. And then similar question over on the Space side. So you took down the top line there, I assume that was partially NGI. The slower growth, should we see that potentially reflect itself in a little bit better margin profile? I know you got the margin guidance unchanged at 9, but I guess the NGI loss and just a little bit slower growth, could that actually help the -- help enhance the margin side of things.

好的。知道了。然後在太空方面也有類似的問題。所以你把上面那行去掉了，我猜那部分是 NGI 的。我們是否應該看到成長放緩可能反映在更好的利潤狀況中？我知道你的利潤指引保持在 9 不變，但我猜 NGI 損失和成長速度稍微慢一點，這實際上可以幫助——幫助提高利潤率。

Yes. As we look at the slower growth, it is largely development programs that are dilutive to the both space margin rate and the company margin rate. So as -- that part of the business is no longer as significant. You will see that be both margin and cash tailwinds because there was also CapEx investments planned that we will not extend in those programs now either.

是的。當我們看到成長放緩時，主要是開發計劃稀釋了空間利潤率和公司利潤率。因此，這部分業務不再那麼重要了。您會看到這既是利潤率又是現金利好，因為也規劃了資本支出投資，但我們現在也不會在這些計畫中擴展。

Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 TD Cowen。

Good performance, Kathy. So following up on Dave's focus on space, I think I've got 2 questions. First, the restricted program that was canceled, is there any chance that we heard a rumor it might have been related to a supplier issue. Is there any chance that, that function or that program might reappear again in the future?

表現不錯，凱西。因此，根據戴夫對太空的關注，我想我有兩個問題。首先，被取消的限制計劃，我們是否有可能聽到傳言，它可能與供應商問題有關。該功能或該程式將來是否有可能再次出現？

And secondly, the SDA business, you basically decided not to bid 1 contract. Is that as a group, are those profitable contracts? Because every time I look, there's another new small supplier coming in and they're all fixed price contract.

其次，SDA業務，你基本上決定不投標1份合約。作為一個團體，那些合約是有利可圖的嗎？因為每次我看的時候，都會有另一個新的小供應商進來，而且他們都是固定價格合約。

So let me start with your first question on the restricted program. There's very little I can say, given the nature of that program, except to say that the Air Force canceled that program largely due to budgetary concerns and prioritization, but the requirement likely does still exist. And so we will see how that plays out over time. I also -- as we look at the broader space portfolio, we'll answer your SDA question more generally. We see a whole variety of opportunities that we can pursue, so we're simply selective on which ones we're best positioned to win, where we think that we can competitively.

讓我從你關於限制計劃的第一個問題開始。考慮到該計劃的性質，我無話可說，只能說空軍取消了該計劃，主要是由於預算問題和優先順序，但這項要求可能仍然存在。因此，我們將看看隨著時間的推移，情況會如何發展。我還——當我們著眼於更廣泛的空間投資組合時，我們將更普遍地回答您的 SDA 問題。我們看到了我們可以追求的各種各樣的機會，所以我們只是選擇我們最有能力贏得的機會，我們認為我們可以競爭的機會。

And with SDA, we've been quite successful and those programs are profitable. But that's because we're remaining disciplined in choosing where we can best compete and win with a reasonable fee and the probability of success.

透過 SDA，我們取得了相當成功，而且這些項目是有利可圖的。但這是因為我們在選擇能夠最好地競爭並以合理的費用和成功機率獲勝的地方時仍然保持紀律。

But you did know bid that one program. As we move forward, is the pricing here getting a little bit more competitive as more people join the party?

但您確實知道競標該項目。隨著我們的前進，隨著越來越多的人加入，這裡的定價是否會變得更有競爭力？

The way I think about bid strategies is if there is an area where you have a differentiated value, then you are going to be able to price accordingly. If you don't, you won't. And so we don't bid when we don't feel like we have a differentiated value that's going to be successful with the price we need to bid to both win and execute. It's really a decision we make on every capture. It's fundamental to the way we both commit and execute as well as deliver the returns that we expect. So no change there and no difference in the states than it is in other parts of our portfolio.

我對出價策略的看法是，如果某個領域具有差異化價值，那麼您將能夠進行相應的定價。如果你不這樣做，你就不會。因此，當我們覺得自己沒有差異化的價值，無法以我們需要競標的價格來贏得勝利和執行時，我們就不會競標。這實際上是我們在每次拍攝時做出的決定。這是我們承諾和執行以及交付我們期望的回報的方式的基礎。因此，與我們投資組合的其他部分相比，各州沒有變化，也沒有差異。

Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究的羅伯特·斯塔拉德。

Kathy, I just wanted to follow up on your comments at the start of the call where you talked about the FY '25 request and DoD spending leveling off. I was wondering who you think could be the bill payers in that budget scenario or whether there's any vulnerability in the Northrop Grumman portfolio?

凱西，我只是想跟進您在電話會議開始時的評論，您談到了 25 財年的請求和國防部支出趨於平穩。我想知道您認為誰可能是該預算情境中的帳單支付者，或者諾斯羅普格魯曼公司的投資組合是否存在任何漏洞？

We looked at the FY '25 president's budget is very much in line with our expectations. So no surprises and no concerns about our portfolio. Obviously, we talked about two things where budget was a factor in DA choosing to down select early on NGI was largely due to budgetary constraints. And then, of course, the restricted space program that we mentioned, but those we have now digested and, of course, reflected not only in our outlook, but my comments about the FY '25 budget. .

我們查看了 25 財年總統的預算，非常符合我們的預期。因此，我們的投資組合並不令人意外，也不用擔心。顯然，我們討論了兩件事，其中預算是 DA 選擇儘早放棄 NGI 的一個因素，這很大程度上是由於預算限制。當然，還有我們提到的受限空間計劃，但我們現在已經消化了這些計劃，當然，這些計劃不僅反映在我們的展望中，還反映在我對 25 財年預算的評論中。 。

So nothing else that we see in there that is concerning. And as I noted, '24 ended up being a strong year for the investment accounts with 6% growth over '23. And we also have the supplemental on top of that. So it's early in looking at '25 and where the budget environment will actually end up in the U.S. But I also just keep pointing back to international demand, that's the strongest that I've seen in a long time. And so we look at global demand, not just the U.S. marketplace.

所以我們在那裡沒有看到任何其他令人擔憂的事情。正如我所指出的，24 年最終成為投資帳戶強勁的一年，比 23 年增長了 6%。除此之外我們還有補充。因此，現在考慮 25 年美國的預算環境實際上最終會如何，還為時過早。因此，我們著眼於全球需求，而不僅僅是美國市場。

Which is -- I've got a quick follow-on on that actually because you did mention exports as well. And I was wondering if you could give us an update on what sort of scale as a percentage of revenues, exports are at the moment and what that could grow to in the future.

實際上，我對此有一個快速的跟進，因為您也提到了出口。我想知道您能否向我們介紹目前出口規模佔收入的比例以及未來可能成長到什麼程度的最新情況。

They're about 14% right now. And while we don't see that moving significantly in the near term because there's opportunities I noted in the pipeline do take a while to prosecute and turn into sales. We do expect that, that will be a faster segment of growth than our domestic business over the next several years, just the richness of the pipeline.

他們現在大約是14%。雖然我們認為短期內不會出現重大變化，因為我注意到管道中存在機會，但確實需要一段時間才能起訴並轉化為銷售。我們確實預計，在未來幾年裡，這將是比我們國內業務成長更快的部分，只是管道的豐富性。

Our next question comes from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Kathy, can you talk about Northrop's roll in the shipbuilding supply chain, which I guess is the marine unit in MS. Just because the Navy has talked about some of the supply chain challenges in shipbuilding. Maybe you could just kind of swage any concerns maybe in terms of how that unit is performing and the growth outlook there? And just kind of how you guys are managing that unit to just so we have a good feel that smoke doesn't turn into fire kind of scenarios?

凱西，你能談談諾斯羅普在造船供應鏈中的作用嗎，我猜是 MS 的海事部門。只是因為海軍談到了造船業的一些供應鏈挑戰。也許您可以就該部門的表現和成長前景提出任何擔憂？你們如何管理該單位，以便我們有良好的感覺，煙霧不會變成火災之類的場景？

Absolutely. It's a critically important part of our portfolio. We're very focused on delivering for our customers in that portfolio. And there have been challenges that we own. We've been working on a development program for nearly 10 years. It's going to deliver an amazing step function improvement in propulsion for the Columbia class submarines. And we are near delivering those first care of turbine generators. And that's what the Secretary of the Navy was referring to in his testimony on the Hill.

絕對地。這是我們產品組合中極為重要的一環。我們非常專注於為客戶提供該產品組合。我們也面臨挑戰。我們已經致力於一項開發計劃近十年了。它將為哥倫比亞級潛艇的推進力帶來驚人的階躍功能改進。我們即將交付第一批渦輪發電機。這就是海軍部長在國會作證時所指的內容。

We are working to address supply chain challenges, as you have heard across the entire shipbuilding enterprise, our experience is very consistent with that. These programs are long cycle. And so we only go through these development efforts once over a multi-decade period and there's learning that happens. But in this case, I think we are largely through that learning and on a path for delivery, and we're optimistic of the future ahead in being able to deliver this capability.

我們正在努力解決供應鏈挑戰，正如您在整個造船企業中所聽到的那樣，我們的經驗與此非常一致。這些計劃週期長。因此，我們在數十年的時間裡只進行一次這些開發工作，並且不斷學習。但在這種情況下，我認為我們基本上已經通過學習並走上了交付之路，並且我們對能夠交付這種功能的未來持樂觀態度。

From a financial perspective that you asked about, this is relatively small, so not something that you should think of as having a material financial impact, but that doesn't mean we don't take it very seriously.

從您所詢問的財務角度來看，這相對較小，因此您不應該認為會產生重大財務影響，但這並不意味著我們不會非常認真地對待它。

Our next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Dave, just to clarify, what's the message on space growth beyond this year? Does it reaccelerate off this 4% or so this year?

戴夫，我想澄清一下，今年以後的太空成長有什麼訊息？今年是否會再次加速 4% 左右？

Yes, I appreciate the question. As you know, we'll provide more specific guidance for all of our businesses and at the enterprise level later this year and provide some indications on the October call as is our traditional approach. I think the broader themes that we've talked about in space today are important. We've touched on the restricted program cancellation in the NGI down select news. But broadly speaking, the doubling of that business's backlog over the last 5 years, the 17% CAGR in sales over that business in the last 4 years, both position us really well for continued success in that business.

是的，我很欣賞這個問題。如您所知，我們將在今年稍後為所有業務和企業級別提供更具體的指導，並按照我們的傳統方法在 10 月的電話會議上提供一些指示。我認為我們今天在太空中討論的更廣泛的主題很重要。我們已經在 NGI Down Select 新聞中談到了限制性節目取消的問題。但從廣義上講，過去5 年該業務的積壓訂單翻了一番，過去4 年該業務的銷售額複合年增長率為17%，這都為我們在該業務中持續取得成功奠定了良好的基礎。

And there is margin rate and margin dollar expansion opportunity on top of that. So we'll provide more specifics as we go about the combination of headwinds from the items we mentioned and tailwinds from the continued growth on other programs. So more specific later in the year, but we continue to be confident in the long-term outlook of the Space business.

除此之外，還有保證金率和保證金美元擴張的機會。因此，當我們討論我們提到的項目的不利因素和其他計劃持續增長的有利因素的組合時，我們將提供更多細節。今年稍後會更具體，但我們仍然對太空業務的長期前景充滿信心。

Okay. Great. And then, Kathy, you flagged opportunities for increased demand for ammunition from U.S. allies, so I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about maybe the specific ammunition products that allies you're looking to purchase from Northrop? And in which regions you're seeing that demand percolate? So I understand that there's at least one specific European supplier of ammunition that generates something like 25% operating margins off that revenue. So just curious to understand what that opportunity could mean for Northrop.

好的。偉大的。然後，凱西，您提到了美國盟友對彈藥需求增加的機會，所以我想知道您是否可以多談談您希望從諾斯羅普購買的盟友的具體彈藥產品？您在哪些地區看到了這種需求？據我所知，至少有一個特定的歐洲彈藥供應商可以從該收入中獲得 25% 左右的營業利潤。所以只是想了解這個機會對諾斯羅普意味著什麼。

Yes, of course. So as we look at our weapons portfolio today, it's about 6% to 7% of revenue. It's growing double digit, and we expect that to continue. A good part of that growth will be supported both by the supplemental that I spoke about in my opening comments in response to Ron's question, but also the European demand has strengthened. So we have a number of opportunities, countries across Europe looking to do the exact same thing the U.S. is doing in replenishing stockpiles for munitions.

是的當然。因此，當我們今天審視我們的武器組合時，它大約佔收入的 6% 到 7%。它正在以兩位數的速度增長，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。這種成長的很大一部分將得到我在回答羅恩問題的開場評論中提到的補充的支持，而且歐洲的需求也有所加強。因此，我們有很多機會，歐洲各國都希望做與美國完全相同的事情來補充彈藥庫存。

And those are basic and nonstandard ammo contracts that we have. Our business grew nicely last year. We expect that to continue this year. And we also have programs like AARGM, where there's international demand, that's a longer-term proposition as we look to provide those products to our European allies, particularly as they feel the F-35. So a wide ranging set from ammunition all the way up to tactical missiles. And then, of course, our solid rocket motor facility expansion supports many of our peer programs like GMLRS, PAC-3, looking to be a second source to support and fix all of those opportunities are in the mix for us.

這些是我們擁有的基本和非標準彈藥合約。去年我們的業務發展得很好。我們預計今年這種情況將持續下去。我們還有 AARGM 等項目，這些項目有國際需求，這是一個長期主張，因為我們希望向我們的歐洲盟友提供這些產品，特別是當他們感受到 F-35 時。從彈藥到戰術飛彈，範圍廣泛。當然，我們的固體火箭發動機設施擴建支持我們的許多同行項目，如 GMLRS、PAC-3，希望成為支持和修復所有這些機會的第二個來源。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

Kathy, you provided a ton of international color both in your opening remarks and also a follow-up to Rob's question. But when I look at the sales disclosures, it's been pretty locked in at $5 billion for 5 years of absolute dollar revenue. So is there a color you can give us on the backlog that shows that this international opportunity is at least working its way into backlog, if not sales in the coming year?

凱西，您在開場白和對羅布問題的後續回答中都提供了大量的國際色彩。但當我查看銷售揭露時，我發現 5 年的絕對美元收入幾乎鎖定在 50 億美元。那麼，您是否可以為我們提供積壓訂單的顏色，以表明這一國際機會至少正在進入積壓訂單（如果不是來年的銷售）？

Yes. So in terms of backlog, what you would look to see as we signed the IBCS deals that I mentioned with additional countries as we sign the contracts for Triton that I highlighted in the call today. The IVEWS that are in the early stages, the 2 countries progressing toward awards. These are all awards that would be in new franchises that we have not had in the past. While we continue to see just the standard growth in areas like F-35 international and the Triton portfolio with the Australians that are already underway or E-2D franchise with France and Japan. So those are still in the backlog and then you'd add to that, the opportunities that I highlighted this morning that are new franchises for us.

是的。因此，就積壓而言，當我們簽署我在今天的電話會議中強調的 Triton 合約時提到的與其他國家簽署的 IBCS 協議時，您會看到什麼。 IVEWS 正處於早期階段，這兩個國家正在向獎項邁進。這些都是我們過去沒有獲得的新特許經營獎項。雖然我們繼續看到 F-35 國際和澳洲人已經在進行的 Triton 產品組合或法國和日本的 E-2D 特許經營權等領域的標準增長。因此，這些仍處於積壓工作中，然後您可以添加我今天早上強調的對我們來說是新特許經營權的機會。

Okay. So the percent of the backlog that's international has been expanding though, I think, is what you're saying?

好的。所以我認為，國際積壓的百分比一直在擴大，這就是你所說的嗎？

It has, although really what we see now is a whole set of opportunities for product lines that were not in our backlog over the last 5 years. So that's the difference. Our portfolio has largely been high-end capabilities that aren't exportable. And as you look at how the portfolio has evolved over time, these new franchises that I spoke about today or franchises like Triton now getting permissibility for exports to more countries is really opening up a whole new set of opportunities for our company.

儘管我們現在看到的實際上是產品線的一整套機會，但過去 5 年我們的積壓工作中沒有這些機會。這就是差別。我們的產品組合主要是不可出口的高端功能。當你看看產品組合如何隨著時間的推移而演變時，我今天談到的這些新特許經營權或像Triton 這樣的特許經營權現在獲得了向更多國家出口的許可，這確實為我們公司開啟了一系列全新的機會。

Our next question comes from Gavin Parsons with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯。

Kathy, you mentioned you've finalized negotiations with additional suppliers on the B-21. Were those all in line with your expectations? Can you share what percentage of suppliers are now locked in? And then when you expect that to be fully finalized?

凱西，您提到您已經完成了與其他供應商就 B-21 進行的談判。這些都符合你的預期嗎？您能否透露目前鎖定的供應商比例是多少？然後你預計什麼時候能完全敲定？

So they were largely in line with our expectations, which is reflected in the fact that we had no EAC change in the quarter. We are far along in negotiations with all of our suppliers, and we expect to be closing on those shortly that we're making sure that we have the best scale possible and that we work those negotiations diligently. So I've not set a time barrier to the team more so an outcome, I've set of objectives for them, and they're doing quite well against those expectations. And our suppliers are obviously key to us. We want to make sure that they are able to support the investment in this program that's necessary. And so we're taking their interest in line as well.

因此，它們在很大程度上符合我們的預期，這反映在我們本季沒有 EAC 變化這一事實上。我們與所有供應商的談判進展順利，我們預計很快就會完成這些談判，以確保我們擁有盡可能最大的規模，並努力進行這些談判。因此，我沒有為團隊設定時間障礙，而是為他們設定結果，我為他們設定了目標，並且他們在這些期望方面做得很好。我們的供應商顯然對我們至關重要。我們希望確保他們能夠支持對該計劃的必要投資。所以我們也關注他們的興趣。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then, Dave, maybe just on Aeronautics margin, I think you mentioned the strength in 1Q will be a little lighter through the rest of the year. But was 1Q as expected? Was that in guide? Or did you perform better than you thought you would in the first quarter?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，戴夫，也許只是在航空利潤方面，我想你提到第一季的實力在今年剩餘時間裡會稍弱一些。但第一季是否符合預期呢？指南裡有嗎？還是你第一季的表現比你想像的還要好？

The first quarter was particularly strong. As we mentioned, we had anticipated an opportunity for productivity gains and indirect rate-driven enhancement to the margin as well this year that was baked into our guidance. And the timing was such that a lot of that came in, in the first quarter, which is why we've noted that we expect the margin rate to be slightly lower in subsequent quarters than it was right out of the gate set at 10%. And so while there's no single onetime item in the first quarter, it was a particularly strong start and a great way to kick off the year for AS.

第一季的表現尤其強勁。正如我們所提到的，我們預計今年也會有提高生產力和間接提高利潤率的機會，這已納入我們的指導。時機是這樣的，其中許多是在第一季出現的，這就是為什麼我們注意到我們預計隨後幾季的保證金率將略低於剛開始設定的 10% 。因此，雖然第一季沒有單一的一次性項目，但這是一個特別強勁的開局，也是 AS 開啟新一年的好方法。

Our next question comes from Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的馬特·埃克斯。

I wanted to ask on Sentinel. You mentioned you're supporting the Nunn-McCurdy review. Just curious what you think the outcomes of that could be? And if there's any risk to that program or do you think that's not the case just given sort of how critical it is.

我想問哨兵。您提到您支持納恩-麥科迪審查。只是好奇你認為這樣做的結果會是什麼？如果該計劃存在任何風險，或者您認為情況並非如此，只是考慮到它的重要性。

Well, there has been strong bipartisan support for the program. We expect that will continue. It, of course, is the nation's policy as reviewed in the nuclear posture review to have 3 legs of strategic deterrence. So we do expect that the program will be recertified, but the government needs to take the process seriously. It's a good process. And they're working through the phases of that recertification now. And as I said, we're providing support to them and stay committed and very focused on delivering the program in the meantime, not getting distracted by the activity associated with the Nunn-McCurdy but supporting it fully.

嗯，該計劃得到了兩黨的大力支持。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。當然，核態勢評估中所檢視的國家政策是擁有戰略威懾的三條腿。因此，我們確實預計該計劃將得到重新認證，但政府需要認真對待這一過程。這是一個很好的過程。他們現在正在經歷重新認證的各個階段。正如我所說，我們正在向他們提供支持，並保持承諾，同時非常專注於實施該計劃，不會因與納恩-麥科迪相關的活動而分心，而是全力支持。

Yes. Got it. And I guess one for Dave. Just thoughts on where EACs at the company level kind of go from here, you're still running quite a bit below where you were a couple of years ago, it sounds like AS had some good EACs, but just thoughts on the progress from here.

是的。知道了。我猜戴夫也有一個。只是想想公司層面的 EAC 從這裡開始會走向何方，你的運作情況仍然比幾年前低很多，聽起來 AS 有一些很好的 EAC，但只是想一下這裡的進展。

Sure. I agree with your characterization that there was good progress in the first quarter. And you'll see that further detailed in our 10-Q disclosures as well. We had been running substantially above the levels of 2022 and 2023 in prior years before the macroeconomic disruptions. And so over time, we anticipate that we will normalize to levels more like our history and we saw progress towards that in the first quarter, as you mentioned, particularly in AS.

當然。我同意你的描述，即第一季取得了良好進展。您還將在我們的 10-Q 披露中看到更多詳細資訊。在宏觀經濟受到干擾之前，我們的運作水準一直遠高於前幾年 2022 年和 2023 年的水準。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們將恢復到更像歷史水平的正常水平，正如您所提到的，我們在第一季看到了進展，特別是在 AS 領域。

But really across the business, you're seeing the results of our heavy focus on program performance and cost efficiency. It's 1 of the 3 drivers that we anticipate for margin expansion, along with business mix enhancement, and the gradual decline of macroeconomic pressures. And so across those 3 dimensions, we see an opportunity to continue to see margins normalize over the next several years, and Q1 was a good example of what you can anticipate there.

但實際上，在整個企業中，您會看到我們高度關注計劃績效和成本效率的結果。這是我們預期利潤率擴張的三大驅動因素之一，此外還有業務組合的增強以及宏觀經濟壓力的逐漸下降。因此，在這三個維度上，我們看到了未來幾年利潤率繼續正常化的機會，第一季就是一個很好的例子，說明了您可以預期的情況。

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Kathy, I was wondering if I could ask you to dive a little deep on the space business in 2 areas, maybe starting with sensors and payloads. And talk a little bit about the pipeline of business opportunity that you have there, where you're seeing the most interest kind of -- like type of sensor, letter optical communications, SAAR, RF, that kind of thing. Just talk a little bit about the general kind of ecosystem and what's going on in the sensors and payload business that you've got there and what you're kind of excited about today?

凱西，我想知道是否可以請您深入了解兩個領域的太空業務，也許從感測器和有效載荷開始。並談談您在那裡擁有的商業機會管道，您在其中看到最感興趣的類型，例如感測器類型、字母光通訊、SAAR、RF 等。請簡單談談生態系統的一般類型以及您所擁有的感測器和有效負載業務中正在發生的事情以及您今天對什麼感到興奮？

So we are seeing interest in modernizing really the entire architecture and space. And I've been talking about this for a while, so whether it's intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, communications, missile warning and tracking, the entire space architecture is being upgraded, both in terms of advancing the capability of those sensors and payloads but also the coverage with the broadening of the space architecture. And so we're involved selectively in all of those areas. As you know, we play a key role in ISR communications, and very informed of both missile tracking and missile warning.

因此，我們看到了對整個建築和空間進行現代化改造的興趣。我已經談論這個問題有一段時間了，所以無論是情報監視偵察、通信、導彈預警和跟踪，整個太空架構都在升級，無論是在提高這些感測器和有效載荷的能力方面，還是在覆蓋範圍方面隨著空間架構的拓寬。因此，我們有選擇地參與所有這些領域。如您所知，我們在情監偵通訊中發揮關鍵作用，並且非常了解飛彈追蹤和飛彈預警。

So really, we feel we have a very broad portfolio that stretches across those areas we don't focus in on one over the other, and we see them all equally attractive. And really, in many ways, that modernization is well underway and is what has contributed to the strong growth of our backlog and space over the last few years.

因此，實際上，我們認為我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，涵蓋了我們不關注的領域，我們認為它們都同樣有吸引力。事實上，從許多方面來看，現代化正在順利進行，這也是過去幾年我們積壓訂單和空間強勁成長的原因。

Okay. And maybe a similar kind of discussion on the ground systems side of things and whether that's all the sensor and payloads that we're launching up in the space are driving the ground system business, just kind of what the competitive environment looks like for you there?

好的。也許在地面系統方面也有類似的討論，以及我們在太空中發射的所有感測器和有效載荷是否正在推動地面系統業務，這就是您那裡的競爭環境。

Yes. They are, and we do participate in the ground segment. I'd say our strength is more in the sensors and payloads but we look at a full integrated solution and often are asked by the government to support them on the ground systems development that go with the satellites that we're fielding. And so we see that as a marketplace where we absolutely can compete. We just choose to be a bit more selective there, again, back to where we're more differentiated.

是的。他們是，我們也確實參與了地面部分。我想說，我們的優勢更多在於感測器和有效載荷，但我們著眼於完整的整合解決方案，並且政府經常要求他們支援我們正在部署的衛星的地面系統開發。因此，我們認為這是一個我們絕對可以競爭的市場。我們只是選擇在那裡更有選擇性，再次回到我們更具差異化的地方。

Josh, have time for one more question.

喬希，還有時間再問一個問題嗎？

And our last question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Nice results. Kathy, can you maybe just talk a little bit about what you expect on your CapEx kind of profile. When we think about last year, you had a big step up and things are staying elevated here, but you also have just tremendous demand signals, both domestically and internationally. Just how you're thinking about how CapEx should trend? Have you made enough of the investment. It sounds like you have on the solid rocket side and microelectronics, but just thinking about more broadly?

不錯的結果。凱西，您能否簡單談談您對資本支出類型概況的期望。當我們回想去年時，你已經取得了很大的進步，而且這裡的情況仍然很高，但你也有巨大的需求訊號，無論是國內還是國際。您如何看待資本支出的趨勢？你的投資夠了嗎？聽起來你在固體火箭方面和微電子方面有研究，但只是考慮更廣泛的方面？

Yes. Some part of why we highlighted today some of those investments that we're making that will support growth over the long term is to reflect the statements that we've made that we do see this year being the peak 4% of revenue CapEx expenditures and then starting to see those come down gradually more towards a normalized level in our company, still see those as a robust growth environment. And so there will be investments that we're making. We're committed to do that. But we do not see the same demand for those investments over the next several years that we've seen over the last several.

是的。我們今天強調我們正在進行的一些投資將支持長期成長，部分原因是為了反映我們所做的聲明，即我們確實認為今年的收入資本支出將達到 4% 的峰值，然後開始看到這些逐漸下降到我們公司的正常水平，但仍將其視為強勁的成長環境。因此，我們將會進行投資。我們致力於做到這一點。但我們認為未來幾年對這些投資的需求不會像過去幾年那樣。

Good well, thank you all for joining us on the call today. We -- as you see, we're off to a strong start to the year, and we will carry that momentum into the following quarters as our team focuses relentlessly on delivering that technology advantage for our customers and value to our shareholders. So thanks again for joining us. I look forward to speaking with you on our next call in July.

好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。正如您所看到的，我們今年有了一個強勁的開局，我們將在接下來的幾個季度繼續保持這種勢頭，因為我們的團隊將不懈地致力於為我們的客戶提供技術優勢並為我們的股東提供價值。再次感謝您加入我們。我期待在七月的下一次電話會議上與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。