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Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's second-quarter 2024 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)
女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第二季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。我叫喬希 (Josh),今天我將擔任您的接線生。(操作員指示)
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.
現在我想將電話轉給主持人、投資者關係副總裁托德恩斯特先生。恩斯特先生,請繼續。
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. And welcome to Northrop Grumman's second-quarter 2024 conference call.
謝謝,喬希,大家早安。歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第二季電話會議。
Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2024 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.
在我們開始之前,今天電話會議上討論的問題,包括 2024 年及以後的指導和展望,反映了公司根據本次電話會議上可用的信息做出的判斷。它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性陳述。
Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.
前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性可能會導致公司實際業績產生重大差異。
Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. And also, we will refer to a presentation that is posted on our Investor Relations website.
今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 結果相協調的非 GAAP 財務指標。此外,我們也會參考投資者關係網站上發布的一份簡報。
On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?
今天參加電話會議的有我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Kathy Warden 和我們的財務長 Dave Keffer。現在,我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As you saw from this morning's earnings release, we delivered excellent operating results again this quarter, building on our momentum from the first quarter.
謝謝,托德。大家早安。感謝您加入我們。正如您從今天早上的收益報告中看到的,我們在本季度再次取得了出色的經營業績,延續了第一季的良好勢頭。
Our company's ability to respond to U.S. and international customer requirements with a wide range of advanced capabilities continues to drive strong growth, with sales up 7% in the quarter and 8% year to date. And our team's solid program performance, along with cost management discipline, led to operating income growth of 13% in the second quarter.
我們公司憑藉廣泛的先進能力來滿足美國和國際客戶的需求,並持續推動強勁成長,本季銷售額成長 7%,年初至今成長 8%。我們團隊的穩健專案表現以及成本管理紀律使得第二季的營業收入成長了 13%。
The combined strength of our top and bottom-line operating results was the primary driver of our 19% EPS growth. And in addition, we delivered robust free cash flow, which is up over $500 million compared to the first half of last year. Based on these strong first half results and confidence in our team's ability to deliver on continued robust demand in the second half, we are increasing our 2024 revenue and EPS guidance.
我們的頂線和底線營運表現的強勁成長是我們每股收益成長 19% 的主要驅動力。此外,我們還實現了強勁的自由現金流,與去年上半年相比成長了 5 億多美元。基於上半年強勁的業績以及對我們團隊滿足下半年持續強勁需求的能力的信心,我們提高了 2024 年的營收和每股盈餘預期。
The breadth and depth of our portfolio is an important differentiator, particularly when coupled with the effectiveness of our strategy in aligning our resources to anticipate and deliver on our customers' needs. Given this, I'm going to take the next couple of minutes to provide important context on our portfolio.
我們產品組合的廣度和深度是我們的重要差異化因素,尤其是當我們的策略能夠有效地協調資源以預測和滿足客戶需求時。有鑑於此,我將花幾分鐘時間來提供有關我們投資組合的重要背景資訊。
When you step back and look at the key components of our business, you'll see that 85% of our sales come from a diverse collection of technology-advanced capabilities, such as electronics, communications, crewed and uncrewed aircraft, space payloads, advanced weapons, command and control systems, and other product areas which are critical to global security.
當您回顧並審視我們業務的關鍵組成部分時,您會發現 85% 的銷售額來自各種技術先進的能力,例如電子、通訊、載人和無人飛機、太空有效載荷、先進武器、指揮和控制系統以及其他對全球安全至關重要的產品領域。
The capabilities we provide, often as a supplier, are in the nation's most advanced space, air, land, sea, and undersea platforms. In the last several years, we've been selected through dozens of competitions to develop and build differentiating technologies that will provide an advantage to the U.S. and our allies through the 2030s.
我們通常作為供應商提供國家最先進的太空、空中、陸地、海上和海底平台的能力。在過去的幾年裡,我們透過數十場競賽脫穎而出,開發和打造差異化技術,為美國及其盟友在21世紀30年代帶來優勢。
The remaining 15% of our sales is comprised of two prime programs in support of the nation's strategic deterrent -- of course, that's Sentinel and B-21 -- with each generating a high single-digit percentage of our revenue today, and we expect that balance to continue for several years. With the recent realignment of our SDS division to our Defense Systems sector, we have four strong and differentiated Segments that are more equal in size, with each having multiple avenues for profitable growth.
我們剩餘的 15% 銷售額來自兩個支持國家戰略威懾的主要項目——當然,那就是 Sentinel 和 B-21——每個項目目前都為我們的收入帶來了較高的個位數百分比,我們預計這種平衡將持續數年。隨著我們最近將 SDS 部門重新調整到國防系統部門,我們擁有四個強大且差異化的部門,這些部門的規模更加均衡,每個部門都有多種獲利成長途徑。
Our business is well aligned with the U.S. National Defense strategy. And as I've outlined, in recent years, we've won significant roles on long-term programs that address the threat environment of today and are expected to do so for the next several decades. In addition, we continue to expand our exportable product offerings, and we are developing our international partner and supplier base to position us for the growing international markets.
我們的業務與美國國防戰略高度一致。正如我所概述的,近年來,我們在應對當今威脅環境的長期項目中贏得了重要角色,預計在未來幾十年內仍將如此。此外,我們繼續擴大可出口的產品供應,並正在發展我們的國際合作夥伴和供應商基礎,以適應不斷增長的國際市場。
We have also invested to increase our capacity to deliver the quantities of rocket motors, armaments, and air and missile defense capabilities needed by the U.S. and our allies to defend freedom and deter aggression around the globe. Examples of this growth include the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, or GMLRS, where our year-to-date revenue has grown by nearly 60%.
我們還進行了投資,以提高我們運送美國及其盟友所需的火箭發動機、武器以及防空和飛彈防禦能力,以保衛全球自由並遏制侵略的能力。這種成長的例子包括導引多管火箭發射系統(GMLRS),我們今年迄今的營收已成長了近 60%。
Additionally, we were awarded over $500 million in contracts for ammunition that we will begin delivering in the third quarter. And we see additional demand for international ammunition opportunities in the coming quarters.
此外,我們還獲得了價值超過 5 億美元的彈藥合同,並將於第三季開始交付。我們認為未來幾季國際彈藥需求將會增加。
Overall, the key takeaway is that the breadth of our portfolio, our alignment to the key priorities for the U.S. and our allies, and our role on each leg of the U.S. Strategic Triad provides us visibility into avenues for our business to grow even if U.S. budget growth slows. And as we've discussed frequently, over the last two years, we're not just focused on top line growth. We're taking deliberate actions to enhance profitability through digital enablement, productivity, supplier management, and cost efficiency.
總體而言,關鍵在於,我們投資組合的廣度、我們與美國及其盟友關鍵優先事項的一致性以及我們在美國戰略三角中的作用,使我們即使在美國預算增長放緩的情況下也能看到業務增長的途徑。正如我們經常討論的那樣,在過去兩年裡,我們不僅僅關注營收成長。我們正在採取深思熟慮的行動,透過數位化支援、生產力、供應商管理和成本效率來提高獲利能力。
As we look at the remainder of this year and next, we expect solid growth across the portfolio to continue, particularly in areas such as weapon systems, advanced electronics, and aeronautics. International sales are also progressing from our pipeline to our backlog and are expected to contribute to increased sales and profitability.
展望今年剩餘時間和明年,我們預計整個投資組合將繼續保持穩健成長,特別是在武器系統、先進電子產品和航空等領域。國際銷售也正在從我們的管道轉向積壓訂單,預計將有助於提高銷售額和獲利能力。
Our outlook is supported by the national security spending environment. In the U.S., the fiscal year 2025 Defense Budget is moving through the appropriations process with recent markups by Congress. We were pleased to see the Senate Armed Services Committee increase the FY25 top line by $25 billion, and we're encouraged by continued support for investment in Defense.
我們的前景受到國家安全支出環境的支持。在美國,2025財政年度國防預算正在進入撥款程序,國會最近對其進行了調整。我們很高興看到參議院軍事委員會將 2025 財年的收入上限提高了 250 億美元,我們對國防投資的持續支持感到鼓舞。
Northrop Grumman's programs broadly, and particularly the B-21, Sentinel and Columbia, which provide the basis for the U.S. Strategic Deterrent, continue to receive strong support, bolstering our view that we're well-positioned in this budget environment. Given the importance of the Triad to the Nation's Deterrence, I'll provide an update on two legs of the Triad for which Northrop Grumman is the prime industry partner to the Department of Defense.
諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的各項計劃,特別是為美國戰略威懾奠定基礎的 B-21、哨兵和哥倫比亞計劃,繼續獲得強有力的支持,這增強了我們認為我們在這種預算環境中處於有利地位的觀點。鑑於三位一體對於國家威懾的重要性,我將提供有關三位一體的兩個方面的最新情況,諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司是國防部的主要行業合作夥伴。
So starting with Sentinel. Earlier this month, the DoD submitted to Congress certification of the Sentinel program as part of the Nunn-McCurdy process. This certification validates the need for the land-based leg of the Triad and continued confidence in the Sentinel weapon system for the critical role it plays in safeguarding global security.
因此從 Sentinel 開始。本月早些時候,作為 Nunn-McCurdy 程序的一部分,國防部向國會提交了 Sentinel 計劃的認證。此次認證證明了三位一體陸基部分的必要性,並表明人們對哨兵武器系統在維護全球安全方面發揮的關鍵作用充滿信心。
DoD and the Air Force are working to restructure the program to reflect the latest cost and schedule estimates. The majority of the cost growth is expected to occur in the production phase of the program, which is beyond the current EMD phase and outside of the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP.
國防部和空軍正在努力重組該計劃,以反映最新的成本和進度估算。預計成本成長的大部分將發生在該計劃的生產階段,該階段超出了當前的 EMD 階段,並且超出了未來國防計劃(FYDP)。
We continue to execute on our existing EMD contract, which includes the design, development, and testing of the full system. We are partnered with the Air Force on completing the design of all aspects of the system and have many of the system's components already in development and test, including all three stages of the missile, command and launch subsystems for launch activation, security and systems monitoring, as well as transportation and support equipment.
我們繼續執行現有的 EMD 合同,其中包括整個系統的設計、開發和測試。我們與空軍合作完成了系統各方面的設計,並且系統的許多組件已投入開發和測試,包括導彈的所有三個階段、用於發射激活、安全和系統監控的指揮和發射子系統,以及運輸和支援設備。
The progress we've made on the program is significant, and we remain committed to partnering with the U.S. Air Force to identify ways to reduce the costs associated with fielding this system.
我們在該專案上取得的進展是顯著的,我們仍然致力於與美國空軍合作,尋找降低部署該系統相關成本的方法。
So turning to the air leg of the triad. The B-21 is progressing well through the testing program and, as you know, has entered low rate initial production. The team continues to perform exceptionally well, and we remain within our schedule and cost estimates.
因此轉向三合會的空中腿。B-21 的測試計劃進展順利,如您所知,已進入低速率初始生產階段。團隊繼續表現出色,我們仍保持在計劃和成本預算之內。
As we recently shared, B-21 test pilots report that the aircraft is flying like the simulator, which is another indication that our digital environment has effectively predicted the performance of the aircraft, thus reducing new discovery and risk. For these reasons and more, we continue to believe in the significant value this program will create for customers and shareholders over time.
正如我們最近分享的那樣,B-21 試飛員報告說,飛機的飛行就像模擬器一樣,這再次表明我們的數位環境有效地預測了飛機的性能,從而減少了新的發現和風險。基於這些原因以及其他原因,我們仍然相信該計劃將隨著時間的推移為客戶和股東創造巨大的價值。
It's important to note that while the B-21 program is very important, it contributes less than 10% of our total sales. And we expect that to remain the case through the decade. Assuming stable economic conditions and continued strong performance by our team, we also expect program margin dollars to grow annually from here as we complete the EMD program and first five lots of production, move into advanced production awards on the more profitable lot 6 and beyond, and add modernization and sustainment revenue to the program.
值得注意的是,雖然 B-21 計畫非常重要,但它對我們總銷售額的貢獻不到 10%。我們預計這種情況在未來十年內仍將持續下去。假設經濟狀況穩定且我們的團隊繼續表現強勁,我們也預計隨著我們完成 EMD 計劃和前五個批次的生產,進入利潤更高的第 6 個批次及以後的高級生產獎項,並為該計劃增加現代化和維持收入,計劃利潤金額將從現在開始逐年增長。
As you can see, our portfolio includes a compelling mix of technology-driven capabilities and franchise programs that are well aligned to the evolving needs of all of our customers. As a result, we've grown our organic revenue at greater than 5% compound annual growth over the past five years, including 5% growth projected in our increased 2024 guidance.
如您所見,我們的產品組合包括引人注目的技術驅動能力和特許經營計劃,可以很好地滿足所有客戶不斷變化的需求。因此,過去五年來,我們的有機收入以超過 5% 的複合年增長率增長,其中我們上調的 2024 年指引中預計的增長率為 5%。
We also continue to rapidly expand our cash flows, including generating over $1 billion of free cash in the second quarter. Based on the strength of our portfolio, backlog, and performance trends, we are reiterating our long-term cash flow outlook, which assumes a greater than 15% compound annual growth rate through 2026.
我們也持續快速擴大現金流,包括第二季產生超過 10 億美元的自由現金。根據我們的投資組合實力、積壓訂單和業績趨勢,我們重申我們的長期現金流前景,假設到 2026 年複合年增長率超過 15%。
To support growth in our business, we're maintaining our investments and capabilities across the company. We continue to target $1.8 billion in capital expenditures this year, which is around 4.5% of revenue and well above the industry average.
為了支持業務成長,我們在整個公司範圍內保持投資和能力。我們今年的資本支出目標仍為 18 億美元,約佔營收的 4.5%,遠高於產業平均。
Including R&D, we're investing approximately $3 billion in our portfolio. At the same time, we're efficiently returning capital to shareholders, including $2.3 billion in the first half of the year. In May, we increased the dividend by 10%. This is our 21st consecutive annual increase as we continue to focus on delivering competitive sustainable dividend growth.
包括研發在內,我們在投資組合中投資了約 30 億美元。同時,我們正有效率地向股東返還資本,其中上半年已返還 23 億美元。五月份,我們將股息提高了10%。這是我們連續第 21 年實現成長,我們將繼續致力於實現具有競爭力的可持續股息成長。
Before I turn the call over to Dave to provide more details on our financial performance and outlook, I'd like to thank our team for another great quarter as we continue to execute on our long-term strategy. We have an outstanding portfolio, a high-performing team, and a bright outlook for the future.
在我將電話轉給戴夫以提供有關我們的財務業績和前景的更多細節之前,我想感謝我們的團隊在我們繼續執行長期戰略的同時又度過了一個出色的季度。我們擁有出色的產品組合、高效的團隊和光明的未來前景。
So with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Dave.
因此,我將把電話轉給戴夫。
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Before covering our Q2 results and outlook, I'd like to take a moment and provide some context around our financials, given the recent segment realignment.
謝謝,凱西,大家早安。在介紹我們的第二季業績和展望之前,考慮到最近的部門調整,我想花點時間介紹我們的財務狀況。
As Kathy noted, the Strategic Deterrent Systems division, which includes Sentinel and other related programs, moved from our Space Systems segment to our Defense Systems segment effective July 1st. Second quarter results have been reported in the prior organizational structure, given the effective date of the realignment, but we've provided a table in the earnings release and earnings slides that recasts sales and margin for current and historical periods under the new organizational structure.
正如凱西所指出的,戰略威懾系統部門(包括哨兵系統和其他相關項目)從 7 月 1 日起從我們的太空系統部門轉移到我們的國防系統部門。鑑於調整的生效日期,第二季的業績是在先前的組織結構中報告的,但我們在收益報告和收益幻燈片中提供了一個表格,重新計算了新組織結構下當前和歷史時期的銷售額和利潤率。
Moving forward, we will report third quarter results and beyond under the new structure. And our updated financial guidance is also under the new structure. So with that, let's get into our second-quarter results.
展望未來,我們將在新的架構下報告第三季及以後的業績。我們更新的財務指導也採用了新的架構。那麼,讓我們來看看第二季的業績。
Starting with demand, Q2 net awards totaled over $15 billion, generating a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 times and increasing our backlog to over $83 billion. As a result of our strong year-to-date performance, we now expect a full-year book-to-bill ratio of more than 1 times sales.
從需求開始,第二季淨獎勵總額超過 150 億美元,訂單出貨比達到 1.5 倍,使我們的積壓訂單增加到 830 多億美元。由於我們今年迄今的強勁表現,我們預計全年訂單出貨比將超過銷售額的 1 倍。
Turning to our top-line results on slide 4 in our earnings deck, second-quarter sales were $10.2 billion, an increase of 7% compared to the same period in 2023. All four segments generated year-over-year growth again in Q2. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect a gradual ramp in our quarterly sales profile, with Q3 sales projected to be roughly in line with Q2.
讓我們來看看收益報告中第 4 張投影片上的頂線業績,第二季的銷售額為 102 億美元,與 2023 年同期相比成長了 7%。所有四個部門在第二季度再次實現同比增長。展望下半年,我們預期季度銷售狀況將逐步上升,預計第三季銷售額將與第二季大致持平。
Aeronautics second-quarter sales increased by 14% with similar drivers to Q1. Higher volume on B-21, F-35, and Triton again led the way. At DS, sales grew by 7%, primarily due to higher volume on certain military ammunition programs and higher volume from the timing of materials on GMLRS.
航空業第二季銷售額成長 14%,成長動力與第一季相似。B-21、F-35 和 Triton 的銷量再次領先。在 DS,銷售額增長了 7%,主要由於某些軍用彈藥項目的銷量增加以及 GMLRS 材料時序銷量增加。
Mission Systems sales increased by 5%, with continued strong growth on advanced microelectronics programs, our marine systems portfolio, and SEWIP. And at Space, sales were up by 2%, driven by growth on the SDA Transport Layer programs and GEM-63 solid rocket motors, partially offset by lower sales in the restricted space portfolio.
任務系統銷售額成長了 5%,先進微電子專案、我們的海洋系統產品組合和 SEWIP 繼續保持強勁成長。在太空領域,銷售額增長了 2%,這得益於 SDA 運輸層計劃和 GEM-63 固體火箭發動機的增長,但受限空間產品組合的銷售額下降部分抵消了這一增長。
Bottom-line results were also very strong, with segment operating income up 5% year-over-year and total operating income up 13%. These results reflect another solid quarter of overall program performance as well as lower corporate unallocated expense.
最終業績也非常強勁,分部營業收入較去年同期成長 5%,總營業收入成長 13%。這些結果反映了整體專案表現又一個穩健的季度以及企業未分配費用的降低。
AS operating income grew by 6%, generating an operating margin rate of 10% for the second straight quarter. These results have provided an example of how strong program performance, focused productivity initiatives, and indirect cost efficiencies can generate margin rates at these levels even as we ramp on B-21.
AS 營業收入成長 6%,連續第二季達到 10% 的營業利益率。這些結果提供了一個例子,說明即使在我們加大 B-21 投入的同時,強大的專案績效、有針對性的生產力計劃和間接成本效率也能產生這些水準的利潤率。
Speaking of B-21, there were no significant changes to our LRIP EAC again this quarter. There are currently 21 aircraft in baseline for the first five LRIP lots and another 19 production aircraft subsequent to these for which we have "not to exceed", or NTE, pricing.
說到 B-21,本季我們的 LRIP EAC 沒有重大變化。目前,前五個 LRIP 批次的基準飛機有 21 架,隨後還有 19 架生產型飛機,我們對其實施「不超過」或 NTE 定價。
These prices were set in 2018, and given that the production for those lots was well into the future, the average unit NTE price was set above the average LRIP price. The NTE lots include an economic price adjustment clause to protect against certain inflationary pressures.
這些價格是在 2018 年制定的,考慮到這些批次的生產將持續到未來很長一段時間,因此平均單位 NTE 價格設定在平均 LRIP 價格之上。NTE 地塊包含一項經濟價格調整條款,以防止某些通膨壓力。
Pricing, final quantities, and terms and conditions have yet to be fully negotiated for these additional aircraft. Based on our current projections, we expect to be able to execute the NTE lots profitably.
這些新增飛機的定價、最終數量以及條款和條件尚未完全協商。根據我們目前的預測,我們預計能夠獲利地執行 NTE 批次。
As you think about the trajectory of the overall program, we expect to begin work on long-lead items related to the NTE lots in 2026. Overall production will continue to ramp through the second half of the decade. And we expect that production sales will become larger than EMD beginning in 2026.
當您考慮整個計劃的發展軌跡時,我們預計將於 2026 年開始研究與 NTE 批次相關的長週期項目。未來五年,整體產量將持續成長。我們預計從 2026 年開始生產銷售量將超過 EMD。
Other B-21 efforts for modernization and sustainment will also begin to grow over the next couple of years and are expected to generate profit rates that are accretive to the overall program. Taking all these factors together, we currently project that margin dollars for the overall program will gradually expand going forward, as Kathy outlined.
未來幾年,B-21 的其他現代化和維護工作也將開始成長,預計將產生對整個專案有利的利潤率。綜合考慮所有這些因素,我們目前預計,正如凱西所概述的那樣,整個計劃的保證金金額將在未來逐步增加。
Defense Systems had a particularly strong quarter, with operating income up 23% and a margin rate of 13.5%. Higher net EAC adjustments and favorable changes in contract mix contributed to their significant year-over-year improvement.
國防系統本季表現尤為強勁,營業收入成長 23%,利潤率達 13.5%。更高的淨 EAC 調整和合約組合的有利變化促成了其同比顯著改善。
At Mission Systems, operating margin rate was 13%, which was lower than Q2 of last year. Similar to Q1, this was a result of lower net EAC adjustments and changes in contract mix towards more cost-type contracts.
任務系統部門的營業利潤率為 13%,低於去年第二季。與第一季類似,這是由於淨 EAC 調整降低以及合約組合向更多成本型合約轉變所致。
While margin rates at current levels remain very competitive, they are below MS's historical performance, and we continue to see opportunities to improve margins in the second half of the year. These improvements will be driven by continued investments we're making in our factories to improve performance and increase production volumes as well as from the business mix shifting to more fixed price work.
儘管目前水準的利潤率仍然非常具有競爭力,但仍低於微軟的歷史業績,我們繼續看到下半年提高利潤率的機會。這些改進將透過我們對工廠的持續投資來推動,以提高性能和增加產量,並透過業務組合轉向更多固定價格工作。
Space had another solid quarter of operating performance, with operating income increasing 14% from the prior year, generating a margin rate of 9.1%. We've seen improvements in Space program performance for multiple quarters now as a result of deliberate actions we've taken in the business.
Space 本季的營運表現再次表現穩健,營運收入較上年同期成長 14%,利潤率為 9.1%。由於我們在業務中採取了深思熟慮的行動,我們已經看到太空計劃績效連續多個季度有所改善。
Moving to earnings per share on slide 6, Q2 diluted EPS was $6.36. This represents an increase of 19% from the prior year, driven by continued strong growth in segment performance as well as from higher net pension income and lower corporate unallocated expense.
轉到投影片6上的每股收益,第二季稀釋每股收益為6.36美元。這比去年同期成長了19%,這得益於各部門業績的持續強勁成長,以及淨退休金收入的增加和公司未分配費用的減少。
Rounding out our Q2 results is cash flow. We had an excellent quarter of cash generation with Q2 free cash flow of $1.1 billion, up 80% compared to our results from Q2 of last year, and on track with our expectations for the full year. We returned approximately $900 million to investors in Q2 via dividends and share repurchases, while also continuing to make strategic investments in our business.
現金流是我們第二季業績的補充。我們本季的現金創造能力非常出色,第二季的自由現金流為 11 億美元,與去年第二季的業績相比成長了 80%,並且符合我們對全年的預期。我們在第二季透過股利和股票回購向投資者返還了約 9 億美元,同時也持續對我們的業務進行策略性投資。
Slide 7 includes our latest segment guidance based on our new organizational structure. We are increasing our sales guidance at both AS and MS, neither of which were affected by the sector realignment. AS is now projected in the high $11 billions, and MS is projected in the mid-$11 billions.
投影片 7 包含我們基於新組織架構的最新細分指導。我們正在提高 AS 和 MS 的銷售預期,這兩家公司均未受到行業調整的影響。目前預計 AS 的規模將達到 110 億美元以上,而 MS 的規模預計在 110 億美元左右。
The increases are driven by the strength of their year-to-date results and expectations for the rest of the year. As we indicated on our Q1 call, Aeronautics sales are expected to flatten out in the second half of the year based on timing of materials and production schedules.
此次漲價是由於今年迄今的強勁業績以及對今年剩餘時間的預期。正如我們在第一季電話會議上所指出的,根據材料和生產計劃的時間安排,預計航空銷售額將在下半年趨於穩定。
We've also updated our margin expectations for AS and MS. We now expect a margin rate at Aeronautics of mid to high 9%, reflecting their ability to generate strong margins across their mix of mature production programs and early-stage development programs. The increase at AS offsets the decrease in margin rate at MS, which is now projected at low to mid 14%.
我們也更新了 AS 和 MS 的利潤預期。我們現在預計航空航太業的利潤率將達到 9% 左右,這反映了他們透過成熟生產項目和早期開發項目組合創造強勁利潤的能力。AS 的成長抵消了 MS 利潤率的下降,目前預計 MS 利潤率在 14% 左右。
At DS, we've increased our sales guidance this year to roughly $9 billion. This reflects the realignment of the SDS division to DS, which is expected to generate sales this year of roughly $2.7 billion. The increase also reflects our expectations for higher sales volume associated with ammunition and weapons replenishment.
在 DS,我們已將今年的銷售預期提高至約 90 億美元。這反映了 SDS 部門向 DS 的重新調整,預計今年的銷售額將達到約 27 億美元。這一增長也反映了我們對彈藥和武器補給相關銷售量增加的預期。
We expect Space sales to be relatively flat this year, projected in the mid- to high $11 billion range, and to be down somewhat in 2025. This profile is driven by the removal of NGI and a restricted program during 2024, which collectively had a run rate of about $1.5 billion in annualized sales. Those headwinds affect both this year and next, of which the larger impact will be experienced in 2025.
我們預計今年太空銷售額將相對持平,預計在 110 億美元中高水平,而 2025 年將有所下降。這一情況是由於 2024 年取消了 NGI 和限制計劃,這兩個計劃的年銷售額總計約為 15 億美元。這些不利因素將影響今年和明年,其中 2025 年的影響將更大。
We expect the rest of the Space portfolio to continue to grow. Overall, we expect a relatively stable level of margin dollars in Space in 2025 as the margin rate grows and offsets pressure from lower volume.
我們預計太空投資組合的其餘部分將繼續成長。總體而言,隨著利潤率的成長和交易量下降帶來的壓力的抵消,我們預計 2025 年太空領域的利潤水準將相對穩定。
Space's guidance also reflects higher intercompany sales primarily associated with propulsion activities in support of the Sentinel program. This also has the effect of increasing company-level eliminations to roughly $2.7 billion.
太空公司的指導也反映了公司內部銷售額的增加,這主要與支持哨兵計畫的推進活動有關。這也導致公司層級的消除額增加至約 27 億美元。
We expect a margin rate at DS of approximately 10% this year and a low 10% rate at Space given the shifts in the portfolio. In total, we now expect company-level sales of $41 billion to $41.4 billion, representing 5% growth at the midpoint. We continue to expect segment OM dollars to grow at roughly the same rate as sales.
考慮到投資組合的變化,我們預計今年 DS 的利潤率約為 10%,而 Space 的利潤率將低於 10%。整體而言,我們現在預計公司層級的銷售額將達到 410 億美元至 414 億美元,中間值成長率為 5%。我們繼續預期 OM 部分的營收將以與銷售額大致相同的速度成長。
We've lowered our expectations for corporate unallocated expense to $150 million based on year-to-date trends. We continue to expect corporate unallocated expense to be weighted toward the second half of the year, consistent with prior years.
根據年初至今的趨勢,我們已將企業未分配支出預期下調至 1.5 億美元。我們繼續預期企業未分配費用將集中在下半年,與往年一致。
We've increased our expectation for the federal tax rate to the mid-17% and slightly lowered our expectation for interest expense to roughly $650 million. As we've noted in prior quarters, we're monitoring for any favorable or unfavorable updates in tax legislation, audits, and appeals processes that, by their nature, are not factored into our guidance.
我們已將聯邦稅率預期提高至 17% 左右,並將利息支出預期略微下調至約 6.5 億美元。正如我們在前幾個季度所指出的,我們正在監控稅收立法、審計和上訴程序中的任何有利或不利的更新,這些更新本質上並未計入我們的指導中。
And based on the latest plans for a higher volume of share repurchases, we've lowered our estimate for weighted average shares outstanding to the mid 147 millions. Altogether, our strong performance and outlook results in an increase of $0.45 to our diluted EPS range. We had a strong first half of the year, and we're looking forward to continuing to create value in the second half and beyond.
根據最新的增加股票回購量的計劃,我們將加權平均流通股數預估下調至 1.47 億股左右。總而言之,我們強勁的業績和前景將使我們的稀釋每股收益增加 0.45 美元。我們上半年表現強勁,並期待在下半年及以後繼續創造價值。
So with that, let's open up the call for questions.
那麼,就讓我們開始提問吧。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.
謝謝。(操作員指示)克里斯汀·利瓦格(Kristine Liwag),摩根士丹利。
Kristine Liwag - Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Analyst
Hey. Good morning, Kathy and Dave.
嘿。早上好,凱西和戴夫。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Good morning.
早安.
Kristine Liwag - Analyst
Kristine Liwag - Analyst
I want to understand a little better the 19 B-21s under a not to exceed pricing agreement. I mean, I understand that the ceiling for the average unit price is higher than the first 21 aircraft. But how do we get comfortable that these next 19 aircraft are indeed profitable as final pricing is yet to be determined?
我想更了解不超過定價協議下的 19 架 B-21。我的意思是,我理解平均單價的上限高於前 21 架飛機。但是,由於最終定價尚未確定,我們如何確信接下來的 19 架飛機確實能夠獲利呢?
And then also as a follow-up, I think you both mentioned that lot 6 is more profitable. I just want to clarify, does this mean absolute positive margin on the program? And -- or is that a relative comment to the previous lots? I just want to understand the dynamics a little bit better on the B-21. Thank you.
然後作為後續問題,我想你們都提到第 6 批的利潤更高。我只是想澄清一下,這是否意味著該計劃的絕對正利潤?並且——或者這是對先前批次的相對評論?我只是想更了解 B-21 的動態。謝謝。
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
Sure, Kristine, happy to clarify a few of those points. As you've noted, the NTE lots that follow the first five LRIP lots are currently projected to be more profitable than the LRIP lots. And to clarify that further, we are projecting a positive profit rate in lot 6 based on our current projections.
當然,克里斯汀,很高興澄清其中的幾點。正如您所注意到的,目前預計前五個 LRIP 地塊之後的 NTE 地塊的利潤將比 LRIP 地塊更高。為了進一步澄清這一點,根據我們目前的預測,我們預計第 6 批的利潤率將為正值。
So to your point, those NTE prices are set higher than the prices that are expected for the first five lots. And with cost efficiencies that we're working hard to drive and program performance and productivity efforts very much in progress, our current projections indicate positive profitability for those lots.
所以正如您所說,這些 NTE 價格高於前五批的預期價格。我們正在努力提高成本效率,並正在大力提高績效和生產力,我們目前的預測表明這些地塊將實現正盈利。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.
謝謝。史考特‧德施勒,德意志銀行。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.
嘿,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Morning, Scott.
早安,史考特。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Dave, just to follow-up on Kristine's question. Is the difference on B-21 units 22 to 40 that they have both a higher average base price and the EPA cost protection, or do units 1 to 22 also have that EPA protection?
戴夫,只是想跟進克里斯汀的問題。B-21 機組 22 至 40 之間的差異在於它們既有更高的平均基本價格,又有 EPA 成本保護,還是機組 1 至 22 也具有 EPA 保護?
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
The -- I think you're right, those are both important points about the NTE lots, that they are set higher. They also do include an EPA clause. That is one we're monitoring carefully. So both are important to keep in mind as eventual pricing and terms and quantities are finalized for those portions of the program.
我認為你是對的,這些都是關於 NTE 地段的重要觀點,它們的設置較高。它們也確實包括了 EPA 條款。我們正在密切關注此事。因此,在最終確定該計劃各部分的定價、條款和數量時,牢記這兩點都很重要。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then, Kathy, there was a news article a while back about the issue the industry faces in sourcing ammonium percolate for making solid rocket motors. Is that something you guys have made some good headway on? And based on your comment on GMLRS output being up 60%, it sounds like the answer is yes, but just curious for your perspective. Thanks.
好的。偉大的。然後,凱西,不久前有一篇新聞文章談到了該行業在採購用於製造固體火箭發動機的滲透銨時面臨的問題。你們在這方面取得了一些進展嗎?根據您對 GMLRS 產量增加 60% 的評論,答案似乎是肯定的,但我只是好奇您的觀點。謝謝。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yes, Scott. Thank you for the question. We did recognize this as a constraining factor in our supply chain for solid rocket motors four or five years ago. And the team brought forward a business case, which we funded to create an alternate supply. And we have done so, which gives us more confidence in our ability to manage that supply.
是的,斯科特。謝謝你的提問。四、五年前,我們確實認識到這是我們固體火箭發動機供應鏈的一個限制因素。該團隊提出了一個商業案例,我們為其提供資金以創造替代供應。我們已經這樣做了,這使我們對管理供應的能力更有信心。
We also, of course, are buying AP from other sources as well. We are not the single supplier of our own AP, but we did add to the overall production capacity, which has improved our ability for predictability on SRMs, solid rocket motors.
當然,我們也從其他來源購買 AP。我們並不是自己 AP 的唯一供應商,但我們確實增加了整體生產能力,從而提高了我們對 SRM(固體火箭發動機)的可預測能力。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Rob Stallard, Vertical Research.
謝謝。Rob Stallard,Vertical Research。
Rob Stallard - Analyst
Rob Stallard - Analyst
Thanks so much. Good morning.
非常感謝。早安.
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Good morning.
早安.
Rob Stallard - Analyst
Rob Stallard - Analyst
Kathy, on Sentinel, there's been some reports that the customer is not happy with the way this program has been progressing so far. And I was wondering, first of all, what sort of risk is there that Northrop could be on the hook for additional charges on this program? And then secondly, what you're trying to do practically to improve the cost profile on Sentinel? Thank you.
凱西,在 Sentinel 上,有報告指出客戶對該計劃目前的進展並不滿意。首先,我想知道,諾斯羅普公司在這個專案上承擔額外費用的風險有多大?其次,您實際上想做什麼來改善 Sentinel 的成本狀況?謝謝。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah. Well, thank you. The DoD did a thorough review of the program as part of the Nunn-McCurdy process, and they were very transparent about the results of that review. For those of you who haven't seen it, they did a press release, they conducted media interviews about 1.5 weeks ago to share those results, and they met with many members of Congress.
是的。好的,謝謝你。作為 Nunn-McCurdy 流程的一部分,國防部對該計劃進行了徹底審查,並且對審查結果非常透明。對於那些還沒有看到的人,他們發布了一份新聞稿,大約一周半前接受了媒體採訪來分享這些結果,並且會見了許多國會議員。
And in that process, they have not pointed to industry performance as the cause of cost growth. The things that they have pointed to include inflation, obviously, particularly as we look at deployment cost -- there's a big construction component of this job -- and also the assumptions that were made many years ago that underestimated the complexity of the program. Those were the two primary costs growth drivers that were identified.
在此過程中,他們並沒有將產業表現視為成本成長的原因。他們指出的問題顯然包括通貨膨脹,特別是當我們考慮部署成本時——這項工作的建設部分很大——以及多年前做出的低估了該計劃複雜性的假設。這是已確定的兩個主要成本成長驅動因素。
We are working with the Air Force to identify ways to perform better than those cost growth estimates, and we will continue to do that. We are looking at everything from design alternatives that they have referenced in the restructure of the program to ensuring we have the right team in place to execute on every part of the program in that deployment and production phase.
我們正在與空軍合作,尋找超越成本成長預期的方法,我們將繼續這樣做。我們正在研究一切,從他們在重組計劃中引用的設計方案,到確保我們擁有合適的團隊來執行部署和生產階段的計劃的每個部分。
And of course, we are continuing to bolster our own staff and systems engineering on the program. But the reality is that most aspects of the program are progressing very well, and the Air Force has publicly made those comments. We are very focused on the ground infrastructure, which is the piece of the program that is driving the vast majority of the cost growth, and that's what our focus will continue to be through the restructure.
當然,我們將繼續加強我們自己的員工和系統工程。但實際情況是,該計劃的大多數方面都進展順利,空軍也已公開發表了這些評論。我們非常關注地面基礎設施,這是該計劃中推動成本成長絕大部分的部分,這也是我們在重組過程中將繼續關注的重點。
Rob Stallard - Analyst
Rob Stallard - Analyst
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Jason Gursky, Citi.
謝謝。花旗銀行的傑森古爾斯基。
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Yeah, Kathy, just a quick follow-up to that last commentary. There was an article yesterday with some comments from somebody up on the Hill, a senator, I think, that did mention Northrop. So I'm just kind of curious if we can get some context about your recent visit? It sounds like you made up to the Hill -- and why you'd have somebody in Congress making some comments that are a little bit contrary to what you just mentioned.
是的,凱西,我只是對最後一條評論做一個快速的跟進。昨天有一篇文章,其中有一些來自國會山莊某人的評論,我想是一位參議員,其中確實提到了諾斯羅普。所以我只是有點好奇我們是否可以了解一下您最近的訪問的背景?這聽起來像是你在向國會做的那樣——為什麼國會中有人會發表與你剛才提到的一些相反的言論。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Well, I'm not going to comment on any individual meeting that I had. But I have had a number of meetings with members of Congress on both sides of the aisle, and they have generally been very supportive of the need for the program and our team's role in that program.
好吧,我不會對我參加過的任何個人會議發表評論。但我與國會兩黨議員舉行了多次會晤,他們普遍非常支持該計劃的必要性以及我們團隊在該計劃中的作用。
And I will also just note that the Department of Defense did speak for the program and their findings on the Nunn-McCurdy, and have spoken very clearly about that. The final thing I'll suggest is that while not everyone is a supporter of the land-based leg of the triad, you can look at the vote and the appropriations, which have fully funded the program; and it's more reflective of the landscape I painted, which is broad-based Congressional support for the program and our role in it.
我還要指出的是,國防部確實為該計劃及其對納恩-麥柯迪調查結果發表了講話,並且對此發表了非常明確的說明。我最後要建議的是,雖然不是每個人都支持三合會中陸基部分,但你可以看看投票和撥款,它們已經為該計劃提供了全額資金;這更能反映我所描繪的前景,即國會廣泛支持該計劃以及我們在其中所扮演的角色。
Jason Gursky - Analyst
Jason Gursky - Analyst
That's helpful. Thank you.
這很有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.
謝謝。傑富瑞的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst
Good morning, Kathy and Dave. Thank you -- and Todd. Maybe if we could just talk about your Mission Systems business. It's been a solid double-digit business, and you stepped down this quarter. How do we think about that mix impact, lower EACs?
早上好,凱西和戴夫。謝謝你——還有托德。也許我們可以談談您的任務系統業務。這是一項穩健的兩位數業務,而您在本季度辭職了。我們如何看待混合影響、降低 EAC?
And there's 100 basis points of ramp in the second half versus H1. How does that evolve? And how do we think about that longer term?
與上半年相比,下半年將上升 100 個基點。這是如何演變的?那我們要如何看待這一長期問題呢?
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
The way I would characterize that is -- I think, first of all, you've touched on a key point, that the mix in MS has shifted over the last few years to be more heavily cost-type in nature. We think that mix will shift back in the direction of more fixed price work over the next several years.
我對此的描述是——我認為,首先,你已經觸及了一個關鍵點,即微軟的資產組合在過去幾年中已經發生了變化,本質上更加註重成本類型。我們認為,未來幾年,這種組合將轉向更多固定價格工作的方向。
A lot of the growth in MS in recent years has been large, cost-type development programs, leading technology efforts across its multiple mission areas. And as a result, its cost-type mix has gone from the mid-30s% back in 2021 to the mid-40s% this year.
近年來,微軟的成長很大程度上來自於大型的成本型開發項目,引領其多個任務領域的技術發展。因此,其成本類型組合從 2021 年的 35% 左右上升到了今年的 45% 左右。
Gradually, that will shift downward over time to include the second half of this year when, consistent with last year, some of our greater sales volume in the second half in MS will be driven by programs that are more predominantly fixed price in nature. And that will blend the mix upward even as soon as the second half of this year.
隨著時間的推移,這一趨勢將逐漸下降,包括今年下半年,與去年一樣,下半年我們在 MS 的部分更大銷售量將受到本質上更固定價格的計劃的推動。到今年下半年,這項組合將進一步融合。
But I think another important point is the set of deliberate actions we're taking to improve productivity and performance and cost efficiency in our Mission Systems business as we're scaling to meet increased demand in our factories. And improvements there are being felt already in the business and are another driver of our confidence in second half margins for MS being higher than those we've delivered in the first half.
但我認為另一個重要點是,我們正在採取一系列深思熟慮的行動,以提高任務系統業務的生產力、性能和成本效率,因為我們正在擴大規模以滿足工廠日益增長的需求。業務方面已經感受到了改善,這也是我們對微軟下半年利潤率將高於上半年的信心的另一個驅動因素。
We're working closely with our suppliers and our production teams in MS to continue to deliver on those efforts and expect progress in the second half and beyond.
我們正在與 MS 的供應商和生產團隊密切合作,繼續履行這些努力,並期待在下半年及以後取得進展。
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst
Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.
謝謝。摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Thanks very much and good morning. I wanted to dig in a little bit on the Space decline you talked about for next year. It looks like off of the revised numbers, maybe it's a modest decline this year.
非常感謝,早安。我想深入探討您談到的明年太空衰退的問題。從修訂後的數字來看,今年的下降幅度可能較小。
When we think about what's coming next year and the ability to grow in -- I think you talked earlier, Kathy, about growing again in 2025, the ability to grow in 2025 relative to the 5% growth rate that you're expecting for this year. Is it possible to make any comments about that at this point?
當我們思考明年會發生什麼以及成長能力時——凱西,我想你之前談到了 2025 年的再次成長,即 2025 年的成長能力相對於你預計今年 5% 的成長率。現在您可以對此發表任何評論嗎?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Sure. With the increase in our guidance this quarter, we expect 5% growth again this year following a period, as I said, of about 5% compound annual growth for the last five years. So, looking forward, we'd expect solid growth across three of our four segments with the strong demand that I talked about earlier in the call, balanced across the portfolio.
當然。隨著本季我們預期的成長,我們預計今年的成長率將再次達到 5%,正如我所說,過去五年的複合年增長率約為 5%。因此,展望未來,我們預計四個部門中的三個部門將實現穩健成長,正如我在電話會議中早些時候提到的那樣,需求強勁,整個投資組合將保持平衡。
Space is likely to be the exception to that next year. We are guiding around flat this year and down modestly next. And that's due largely to the impact of NGI and the restricted program that we talked about earlier this year being canceled. And then we do expect Space to return to growth in 2026.
明年,太空可能會成為例外。我們預計今年將持平,明年將小幅下降。這主要是由於 NGI 的影響以及我們今年早些時候談到的限制計劃被取消。我們確實預計太空將在 2026 年恢復成長。
So it's too soon to provide a detailed guide for 2025 at a company level, but that gives you a sense of the dynamics that we're expecting in the various segments. And with the broad-based portfolio that we have, the slight decline that we expect in sales in Space next year do not change our outlook for the company as a whole.
因此,現在從公司層級提供 2025 年的詳細指南還為時過早,但這可以讓您了解我們對各個細分市場的預期動態。由於我們擁有廣泛的產品組合,我們預計明年 Space 銷售額將略有下降,但這不會改變我們對整個公司的展望。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Okay. Okay. Thanks. And then maybe as a quick follow-up. In Aeronautics, we've seen some fairly strong margin performance early this year and led to the guidance increase. I guess, are there specific things to point to for the second half that will pull that down below 10%?
好的。好的。謝謝。然後也許可以進行快速跟進。在航空領域,我們在今年年初看到了相當強勁的利潤率表現,並因此提高了指引。我想,下半年是否存在一些具體因素會導致該數字降至 10% 以下?
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
Sure, Seth, happy to comment on that further. To your point, it was a really solid first half of the year and a solid second quarter for the AS business. Both top and bottom-line performance were strong.
當然,塞思,很高興對此進一步評論。正如您所說,今年上半年 AS 業務表現非常穩健,第二季也表現穩健。營收及淨利表現均十分強勁。
And really, since the beginning of the year, we've been projecting and noting that the sales growth rate would moderate a bit in the second half of the year because of the timing of top line-items in Aeronautics, supplier deliveries and such, both on B-21 and on programs like F-35 that were going to lead to higher volume in the first half of the year than we saw a year ago. So that's where we've seen the really strong year-over-year growth rates in the first half.
實際上,自今年年初以來,我們一直在預測並注意到,由於航空領域主要項目的時機、供應商交付等,下半年的銷售成長率將略有放緩,無論是 B-21 還是 F-35 等項目,都將導致上半年的銷售量高於去年同期。因此,我們看到上半年的年成長率確實非常強勁。
We've been able to increase our guide for both sales and margin rate for the year. But to your point, it will involve slightly slower growth and slightly lower margin rates in the second half.
我們已經能夠提高今年的銷售額和利潤率指導值。但正如您所說,下半年的成長速度會略有放緩,利潤率也會略有下降。
We have initially guided 9.5% for the year and have now increased that rate because of the first two quarters at 10%. So, we're continuing to project a really strong rate for the year. And I think that's evidence of the fact that we have a diversified mix of programs in AS. And programs like our support for F-35 as well as Triton, E-2D, and others are in healthy production levels where we're doing a great job for our customers and delivering strong results for investors.
我們最初預計今年的成長率為 9.5%,由於前兩個季度的成長速度為 10%,因此我們已將該成長率上調至 10%。因此,我們繼續預測今年的成長率將非常強勁。我認為這證明了我們在 AS 中擁有多樣化的項目組合。我們對 F-35、Triton、E-2D 等項目的支援目前處於健康的生產水平,我們為客戶提供了出色的服務,並為投資者帶來了豐厚的回報。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Gavin Parsons, UBS.
謝謝。瑞銀的加文·帕森斯。
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Thanks. Morning.
謝謝。早晨。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Good morning.
早安.
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
I appreciate all the detail on B-21. That's really helpful, especially in terms of EBIT dollars growth. When do you foresee the peak margin rate headwind occurring from that program?
我感謝有關 B-21 的所有細節。這確實很有幫助,特別是在息稅前利潤成長方面。您預計該計劃何時會出現高峰保證金率逆風?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
So Gavin, what we have shared today suggests that our modeling of the program would see increased dollar growth from here on earnings, and modest sales growth. So you can anticipate, even though we didn't specifically outline it, that we are at the trough of margin rate performance on the program in our current modeling.
所以加文,我們今天分享的內容表明,從現在起,該計劃的模型將會看到收益的美元增長和適度的銷售額增長。因此,儘管我們沒有具體概述,但您可以預見,在當前的模型中,我們正處於該計劃的保證金率表現的低谷。
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Gavin Parsons - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. And then I guess on the expectation for equitable adjustments on lot 6 or beyond, I think there was some expectation that there might be one on the first five LRIPs. Is it more contractual now on the forward expectation?
知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。然後我猜對於第 6 批或以後的公平調整的期望,我認為有人期望前五個 LRIP 可能會有一個。現在對未來預期的契約性是否更強?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
So the difference with the NTE pricing is that the pricing itself has an economic price adjustment clause in it for the EPA contracts, which, of course, we have not negotiated or definitized. The LRIP did not have an EPA clause. So any inflation relief that we get on those contracts is additive to the terms.
因此,與 NTE 定價的區別在於,定價本身包含針對 EPA 合約的經濟價格調整條款,當然,我們尚未對此進行談判或確定。LRIP 沒有 EPA 條款。因此,我們在這些合約中獲得的任何通貨膨脹減免都是條款的附加。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Cai von Rumohr, TD Cowen.
謝謝。Cai von Rumohr,TD Cowen。
Cai von Rumohr - Analyst
Cai von Rumohr - Analyst
Thanks so much. So help me understand on B-21. I mean you took close to a $1.6 billion charge over five lots. That's roughly $300 million a lot. So I assume that's moving from about zero last year up to $300 million, negative. How do you get enough profit to offset that? Or when you talk about profit dollars improving, are you talking from an accrued basis where you've taken the charge already?
非常感謝。請幫我了解 B-21。我的意思是,你們在五塊地上收取了近 16 億美元的費用。這大約是 3 億美元。因此我估計這個數字將從去年的零上升到負 3 億美元。如何獲得足夠的利潤來抵銷這一點?或者當您談到利潤增加時,您是在談論已經收取費用的應計基礎嗎?
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
Right. Cai, it's the latter. We took that charge last year. So we're talking about the anticipated results from the program going forward.
正確的。蔡,是後者。我們去年承擔了這項任務。所以我們正在討論該計劃未來的預期結果。
Cai von Rumohr - Analyst
Cai von Rumohr - Analyst
Got it. Thank you very much. And then secondly, they're talking about restructuring the Sentinel program. Is that likely to be, in your opinion, Kathy, an opportunity or a risk for Northrop Grumman?
知道了。非常感謝。其次,他們正在討論重組 Sentinel 計劃。凱西,您認為這對諾斯羅普格魯曼公司來說是機會還是風險?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
At this point, Cai, what I would say is that the cost growth that is being talked about and which drove the Nunn-McCurdy is mostly outside of the EMD phase of the program, which, of course, is what we are on contract for and, therefore, what our financial projections reflect. And we do reflect the modest cost growth that we're expecting in the EMD contract in our financials, so you see that reflected in the Q2 booking rate.
蔡,現在我想說的是,人們所談論的成本增長以及推動 Nunn-McCurdy 的成本增長主要超出了該計劃的 EMD 階段,當然,這是我們簽訂合約所針對的階段,因此,我們的財務預測也反映了這一階段。我們的財務狀況確實反映了我們預期的 EMD 合約中的適度成本增長,因此您會看到這反映在第二季的預訂率中。
And I would say we've taken a cautious approach on our booking rate at this point as we normally do at the beginning of a program. And as we perform and achieve more percentage -- performance milestones over the course of the program, we would expect that booking rate to improve.
我想說的是,我們現在對預訂率採取了謹慎的態度,就像我們通常在專案開始時所做的那樣。隨著我們在整個專案過程中表現更好、實現更多的百分比——績效里程碑,我們預計預訂率將會提高。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Doug Harned, Bernstein.
謝謝。道格·哈內德,伯恩斯坦。
Doug Harned - Analyst
Doug Harned - Analyst
Good morning. Thank you. Kathy, when you talked -- you had a really big quarter this year for bookings after -- last quarter was pretty soft. And you're looking at being above 1.0 for the year. How should we think about the outlook this year in terms of bookings?
早安.謝謝。凱西,正如您所說——今年一個季度的預訂量非常大——而上個季度的預訂量卻相當疲軟。預計今年該數字將超過 1.0。我們該如何看待今年的預訂前景?
And I'd say in two dimensions. One is growth, U.S. versus international. And then second, which segments are we looking at where you expect to see that over the -- see some good growth over the next two quarters?
我想說的是二維的。一是成長,即美國的成長與國際的成長。其次,我們正在關注哪些細分市場,您預計這些細分市場在未來兩季會出現良好的成長?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yes. So as Dave said, we are now expecting book-to-bill in the year over 1 after a very strong second quarter. We do see lumpiness in awards, as we've talked about before but consistently have been performing on an annual basis with book-to-bill over 1.
是的。正如戴夫所說,在第二季度表現非常強勁之後,我們預計今年的訂單出貨比將超過一年。正如我們之前談到的,我們確實看到了獎項的波動,但每年的訂單出貨比一直保持在 1 以上。
And this year, it is again expected to be reflecting our mix of domestic versus international sales. Because awards are going to be strong in both categories, with international bookings being stronger this year than they have been in the past and domestic bookings remaining strong.
今年,預計它將再次反映我們的國內和國際銷售組合。因為兩個類別的獎項都將表現強勁,今年的國際預訂量比以往都要強勁,國內預訂量也依然強勁。
In terms of the segments that are going to drive that, we've seen it shift more to our shorter-cycle businesses. So the strong bookings are more concentrated now in our new Defense Systems and in Mission Systems than they are in AS and Space.
就推動這一趨勢的細分市場而言,我們已經看到它更多地轉向我們的短週期業務。因此,目前強勁的訂單更集中在我們的新防禦系統和任務系統上,而不是 AS 和太空系統。
But of course, I'll point that in both those segments, we've had strong -- they've been the key driver of strong bookings in the past. And so they still have a really solid backlog.
但當然,我要指出的是,在這兩個領域,我們都表現強勁——它們是過去強勁預訂的關鍵驅動力。因此他們仍然有大量積壓訂單。
Doug Harned - Analyst
Doug Harned - Analyst
Yeah. I guess part of what I was getting at is if you're looking at -- we're looking at still unfortunately fairly flat budgets in the US, but a lot of growth outside. Should we expect to see over the next couple of years any kind of a shift in mix with a higher percentage of international sales?
是的。我想我要表達的意思之一是,如果你看一下——不幸的是,我們看到美國的預算仍然相當平穩,但其他地區的預算卻有很大的增長。我們是否應該期待在未來幾年內看到產品組合發生某種轉變,國際銷售額比例會更高?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
I would say we are seeing more international sales, and we are expecting our international sales to grow at a faster rate than our domestic. But also, when you look at bookings and the strength of our alignment with the National Defense Strategy and the prioritization, particularly of the Triad, and the growth that we expect on all three of those programs as they move through development and into production, we do believe that they will be well supported in the budget.
我想說的是,我們看到了更多的國際銷售,我們預計我們的國際銷售成長速度將比國內銷售成長速度更快。但是,當你看到預訂量以及我們與國防戰略的一致性和優先順序(特別是三位一體)時,以及我們對這三個項目在開發和投入生產過程中的增長預期時,我們確實相信它們將在預算中得到很好的支持。
And we'll see them take more share of the budget overall. Even though each one of them is well below 1% of the overall DoD budget, they are well prioritized within the spending profile.
我們將看到他們佔據整體預算的更多份額。儘管每項支出都遠低於國防部總預算的 1%,但在支出概況中,它們都具有優先地位。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.
謝謝。邁爾斯·沃爾頓,沃爾夫研究公司。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Just had a quick follow-up question for you, Kathy. In your remarks earlier in the prepared remarks, you talked about high single-digit percentage of revenue on the Sentinel and B-21 and staying consistent with that over the next several years. And I guess I was expecting that the B-21 would trip into double digits within that time period, understanding that Sentinel might have a smoother or slower growth rate. Is that correct or incorrect in this assessment?
謝謝。早安.凱西,我只是想問你一個簡短的後續問題。在您之前的準備好的發言中,您談到了 Sentinel 和 B-21 的收入將達到較高的個位數百分比,並將在未來幾年內保持這一水平。我想我預計 B-21 在那段時間內會達到兩位數,因為 Sentinel 的成長率可能會更平穩或更慢。這個評估正確還是不正確?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
No. And it's why we included it to clarify that even though you see budget profile from the Department that shows growth, that includes things that aren't on our contract as the government needs to staff up to be able to test, to be able to support, to be able to build a sustainment organization, to house the aircraft as we deliver them. So there are a lot of things in that budget beyond our contract value.
不。這就是我們將其納入的原因,以澄清即使您看到部門的預算概況顯示增長,但其中包括不在我們合約中的內容,因為政府需要配備人員才能進行測試,才能提供支持,才能建立維持組織,才能在我們交付飛機時安置飛機。因此,預算中有很多內容超出了我們的合約價值。
And with the dynamics that I described, with EMD moving toward completion over these next handful of years and meeting IOC on the program, with the production meeting its quantity level and then starting to flatten off, and with modernization and sustainment coming online, that whole mix keeps us generally in that high single-digit range, especially as the rest of the portfolio grows as well.
按照我所描述的動態,隨著 EMD 在未來幾年內逐步完成並達到該計劃的 IOC,隨著生產達到其數量水平然後開始趨於平穩,隨著現代化和維持能力的上線,整個組合將使我們的增長率保持在較高的個位數範圍內,尤其是在其他投資組合也在增長的情況下。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Okay. Very good. And then the Space booking -- excuse me, Space performance in the quarter, it sounded from your tone that it had improved. Are we now back to positive EACs or are we just less negative EACs that we're seeing?
好的。非常好。然後是太空預訂——對不起,本季的太空表現,從您的語氣來看,它有所改善。我們現在是否又回到了正面的 EAC 狀態,還是我們所看到的負面 EAC 狀態有所減少?
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
I can take that one. The EACs for Q2 for Space were less negative than the last couple of quarters. Clear improvement there in performance in the business. Still a few small negative items.
我可以拿那個。與前幾季相比,第二季太空領域的 EAC 表現較差。業務表現明顯改善。仍有一些小的負面事項。
But clearly, as you saw from the year-over-year booking -- or margin rate improvement and the overall margin rate that we're now expecting for the full year in Space, there's been demonstrable progress there really related to the actions we've been taking for the last year to improve program performance, deliver cost efficiencies, deliver affordability for customers as we do it. So certainly a good news part of the story there.
但顯然,正如您從同比預訂量或利潤率改善以及我們現在預計的全年太空業務整體利潤率中看到的那樣,我們已經取得了明顯的進展,這與我們去年為提高項目績效、提高成本效率和為客戶提供可負擔性而採取的行動確實有關。所以這無疑是個好消息。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.
謝謝。富國銀行的馬特‧艾克斯 (Matt Akers)。
Matt Akers - Analyst
Matt Akers - Analyst
Yeah. Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. Can you comment on the Navy new fighter, the F/A-XX, just what you're hearing on timing there and if you're still planning to bid on that program?
是的。嘿,早安。謝謝你的提問。您能否評論一下海軍的新型戰鬥機 F/A-XX?您聽到的有關時間安排的消息是什麼?您是否仍計劃競標該項目?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yes. We have not received any updates that would suggest the Navy is changing their approach. They are in competition now for selection to occur next year. And in terms of our overall collection of opportunities, we continue to believe that the Department of Defense will move forward with sixth generation platforms.
是的。我們尚未收到任何表明海軍正在改變其做法的最新消息。他們目前正在競爭明年的選拔。就我們整體的機會而言,我們仍然相信國防部將推進第六代平台的發展。
The timing is a bit in flux on many of them as they sort out budget priorities. But we are confident that we're well-positioned when and if they do move forward.
當他們確定預算優先事項時,許多計劃的時間表都有些不確定。但我們相信,如果他們真的採取行動,我們將處於有利地位。
Matt Akers - Analyst
Matt Akers - Analyst
Great. Thanks. And if I could do a follow-up. I guess Spirit AeroSystems is a supplier on B-21. Any thoughts around the acquisition there with Boeing and if there's a chance you would bring that work kind of in-house?
偉大的。謝謝。我是否可以進行後續跟進。我猜 Spirit AeroSystems 是 B-21 的供應商。您對與波音公司的收購有何想法?是否有機會將這項工作帶入公司內部?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah. I'm not going to comment on specific discussions that we've been having with Spirit. But generally, we acknowledge that they are a key supplier. And we have agreements in place with them that we would expect any owner of the company to adhere to as we move forward.
是的。我不會對我們與 Spirit 進行的具體討論發表評論。但總的來說,我們承認他們是關鍵供應商。我們與他們達成了協議,我們希望公司的任何所有者都能在我們前進的過程中遵守這些協議。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.
謝謝。Pete Skibitski,Alembic Global。
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Yeah. Good morning, guys. Kathy, I think it was on the last call, you talked about an increasing amount of Triton export opportunities. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of timing for when those might get signed off on and maybe sized, some of the opportunities?
是的。大家早安。凱西,我想是在上次通話中,你談到了越來越多的 Triton 出口機會。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們這些計劃何時可能獲得批准以及可能確定哪些機會的規模?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah. So, we are excited that both NATO and Norway have expressed interest in Triton, and we are hopeful that announcements will be coming shortly on both. And as we look to build Triton for the US and Australia, this simply adds to the production line outlook for Triton through the decade.
是的。因此,我們很高興北約和挪威都對 Triton 表示了興趣,我們希望雙方都能很快發佈公告。由於我們希望為美國和澳洲生產 Triton,這無疑為 Triton 未來十年的生產線前景增添了亮點。
And so we had envisioned this day coming, where more countries would get the opportunity to see Triton, once it was fielded, has a tremendous ability to surveil large areas of ocean. You can think of the relevance to that in the Pacific, which is what was attractive to Australia and the U.S. Navy. But of course, in the Arctic, this is an area of great importance as well, which is driving the NATO and the Norwegian interest.
因此,我們預見了這一天的到來,一旦 Triton 投入使用,更多的國家將有機會看到它,它擁有監視大片海洋的強大能力。你可以想想這與太平洋地區的相關性,這正是吸引澳洲和美國海軍的地方。當然,北極也是一個非常重要的地區,它推動北約和挪威的興趣。
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Scott Mikus, Melius Research.
謝謝。米庫斯(Scott Mikus),Melius Research。
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Scott Mikus - Analyst
It's Scott Mikus on for Rob Spingarn. Kathy, I wanted to ask about the Sentinel program. It had an 81% increase in cost, but the DoD's CAPE office said that their confidence interval on that estimate was only about 50%. So, if the estimates end up being higher or lower, can you talk about opportunities where you think you can lower the cost of the program?
斯科特·米庫斯 (Scott Mikus) 代替羅布·斯賓加恩 (Rob Spingarn)。凱西,我想問一下有關哨兵計劃的問題。其成本增加了 81%,但國防部 CAPE 辦公室表示,他們對該估計的置信區間僅為 50% 左右。那麼,如果最終估算結果更高或更低,您能否談談您認為可以降低該計劃成本的機會?
And then as a follow-up, although nuclear modernization is a high priority, budgets aren't unlimited. So how concerned are you that cost growth in Sentinel could result in it being truncated or potentially B-21 end up being a bill payer with the Air Force's budget?
接下來,儘管核子現代化是重中之重,但預算並不是無限的。那麼,您是否擔心「哨兵」計畫成本的成長會導致其預算縮減,或者 B-21 最終會成為空軍預算的負擔者?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Yeah. A couple of things to frame for you in answering those questions. The first is a reminder that the cost growth that is projected is indeed that, a projection over a very long period of time. It covers not just the work that we're doing right now to design, develop, and test, which will largely be through the remainder of this decade.
是的。在回答這些問題時,需要為您概括幾點。首先需要提醒的是,預期的成本成長確實是一個很長時期內的預測。它不僅涵蓋了我們現在正在進行的設計、開發和測試工作,這些工作將主要持續到本世紀剩餘的時間。
The majority of those cost growth projections come for the fielding, building out the missile silos for the system, 450 of them. And that doesn't happen really until the next decade. So that's why there's so much uncertainty. It's like any of us sitting here and trying to project what costs might look like 10 to 15 years from now, and that's what's baked into those estimates.
預計成本成長的大部分來自於部署和建造該系統的飛彈發射井,共 450 個。而這其實要到下一個十年才會發生。這就是為什麼存在這麼多不確定性。這就像我們任何人坐在這裡試圖預測 10 到 15 年後的成本會是什麼樣子,而這就是那些估算中所包含的內容。
The second part of your question is around the 80% growth. Since so much of that is well into the future, there are still decisions that the Air Force can make today that can drive solutions that reduce that cost projection. And that is what they're doing in the restructuring, looking at those options. And we are partnering with them to do that. And we are committed to help them do that.
你問題的第二部分是關於80%的成長。由於其中許多內容都還在未來,因此空軍今天仍然可以做出一些決定,以推動降低成本預測的解決方案。這就是他們在重組中所做的事情,研究這些選擇。我們正在與他們合作來實現這一目標。我們致力於幫助他們做到這一點。
And of course, on many of Northrop Grumman's program, we are performing well below the government's independent cost estimates, which is what these are. These are not industry estimates. These are the government's cost estimates. And this is not growth on the current contract; this is projections of future growth.
當然,在諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的許多專案中,我們的表現遠低於政府的獨立成本估算。這些不是行業估計。這些都是政府的成本估算。這不是當前合約的成長;這是對未來成長的預測。
So with all of that in mind, there is time here to work through a number of factors to determine what the actual cost growth would be and how that gets incorporated into Future Year Defense Programs. But it is not expected to have a significant impact in the next five years, and the Air Force has made that clear.
因此,考慮到所有這些,我們需要花時間研究一系列因素,以確定實際成本增長是多少,以及如何將其納入未來年度國防計劃。但預計未來五年內不會產生重大影響,空軍已經明確表示了這一點。
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Of course.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Peter Arment, Baird.
謝謝。彼得·阿門特,貝爾德。
Peter Arment - Analyst
Peter Arment - Analyst
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Kathy and Dave.
是的,謝謝。早上好,凱西和戴夫。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Good morning.
早安.
Operator
Operator
Thanks for all the incremental details on B-21. Super helpful. Just Dave, quickly on working capital, just dynamics going forward here and then how we're thinking about that as it rolls into '25 just given all the growth that you guys are enjoying. Thanks.
感謝您提供有關 B-21 的所有詳細資訊。超有幫助。戴夫,請簡單談談營運資金,未來的動態,以及考慮到你們所享受的所有成長,我們如何看待 25 年的情況。謝謝。
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
Sure. Clearly, a really strong Q2 for free cash flow performance, working capital very much an integral part of that. I think it's a good opportunity to take a step back then and look at the rest of this year and beyond and what's factored into our multi-year outlook and our guidance for this year.
當然。顯然,第二季自由現金流表現非常強勁,營運資本是其中不可或缺的一部分。我認為這是一個很好的機會,讓我們回顧一下今年剩餘時間及以後的情況,看看哪些因素會影響我們的多年展望和今年的指導。
And for working capital, the answer is essentially that our expectations are pretty flat; that we're already performing at a very high level, very strong level, for working capital; and that we're not anticipating additional efficiencies, nor are we anticipating erosion to those levels.
對於營運資本,答案基本上是我們的預期相當平穩;對於營運資本,我們的表現已經處於非常高的水平,非常強勁的水平;我們預計不會再提高效率,也不會預期效率會下降。
So when we talk about a 15%-plus free cash flow CAGR from 2023 to 2026, that is not driven by further working capital efficiencies. It's driven by the expansion of operating profits as we continue to grow the top line and we deliver on margin expansion opportunities.
因此,當我們談論 2023 年至 2026 年 15% 以上的自由現金流複合年增長率時,這並不是由進一步的營運資本效率所推動的。這是由營業利潤的擴大所推動的,因為我們繼續增加營業收入並實現利潤率擴大的機會。
CapEx is at peak levels this year as it was last. That will decline going forward, both in real dollars and clearly as a percentage of sales toward our longer-term target in the 3% range. And then we should see modestly stronger CAS pension recoveries as we showed in our latest projections earlier this year based on the actuarial environment today.
今年的資本支出與去年一樣處於高峰。未來這一數字將會下降,無論是實際美元金額還是銷售額的百分比,都明顯朝著我們 3% 左右的長期目標邁進。然後,我們應該會看到 CAS 退休金復甦略有增強,正如我們在今年早些時候根據當今精算環境做出的最新預測中所顯示的那樣。
And then the Section 174 impact on cash taxes will continue to decline each year. So that combination of factors is what leads to the 15%-plus free cash flow growth in our outlook. And working capital is essentially a flat element of that outlook.
第 174 條對現金稅的影響將逐年持續下降。因此,我們認為這些因素的結合將導致自由現金流增加 15% 以上。而營運資本本質上是這前景的一個平穩因素。
Peter Arment - Analyst
Peter Arment - Analyst
Appreciate the detail. Thanks.
欣賞細節。謝謝。
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
David Keffer - CFO, Corporate VP
You bet.
當然。
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Todd Ernst - VP of Investor Relations
Josh, we have time for one more question.
喬希,我們還有時間再問一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. David Strauss, Barclays.
謝謝。巴克萊銀行的大衛‧施特勞斯。
David Strauss - Analyst
David Strauss - Analyst
Thanks. Appreciate you squeezing me in. And I appreciate all the additional color on B-21, very helpful. Kathy, can you -- you've talked about the company eventually getting back to this 12% margin range. Today, you're at 11%. You talked about B-21 today not really being much of a headwind as we think about margins going forward. Can you talk about that progression back to 12%, how you see that playing out over the next couple of years?
謝謝。感謝您邀請我加入。我很欣賞 B-21 上的所有附加顏色,非常有幫助。凱西,您能否——您談到公司最終會回到 12% 的利潤率範圍。今天,您已達到 11%。您今天談到,當我們考慮未來的利潤率時,B-21 實際上並不會帶來太大的阻力。您能否談談這一增長回升至 12% 的情況以及您認為未來幾年將如何發展?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Sure. So we've talked about several factors. The first is getting the macroeconomic headwinds behind us related to inflation flowing through our contracts the disruption and challenges that we've had with supply chain deliveries. And those are largely getting behind us, although we do still have some contracts where that is flowing through and we're seeing those impacts, as we talked about in Mission Systems today.
當然。我們討論了幾個因素。首先是克服與通貨膨脹相關的宏觀經濟逆風,這些逆風會影響我們的合約以及我們在供應鏈交付過程中遇到的中斷和挑戰。這些基本上都已經過去了,儘管我們仍然有一些合約在進行,而且我們也看到了這些影響,正如我們今天在任務系統中討論的那樣。
But as those headwinds dissipate, then it really is about the strength of the portfolio shining through in the operating results. And you're starting to see that take hold.
但隨著這些不利因素的消散,投資組合的實力將在經營績效中得到充分體現。你開始看到它開始發揮作用。
What I would say is that from a cost efficiency standpoint, the team is making sure that the business is sized appropriately in everything from human capital to facilities to our infrastructure. We also are investing in digital enablement, as you know, which is a tailwind to program performance, as we've demonstrated on B-21 with our ability to adhere to modeling that predicts future performance and then hit that performance in the product. That is derisking our programs and driving improved margin opportunity.
我想說的是,從成本效率的角度來看,團隊正在確保業務在從人力資本到設施到基礎設施等各個方面都規模適當。如您所知,我們還在投資數位化支持,這對專案績效來說是一個順風,正如我們在 B-21 上所展示的那樣,我們有能力堅持預測未來績效的建模,然後在產品中達到該績效。這降低了我們專案的風險並帶來了提高利潤的機會。
And then some more structural items like the mix shift that we spoke about on the call, our cost plus business, which we've had a heavy concentration of here in these last few years, including programs like Sentinel with lower booking rates, which will, over time, move towards fixed price and more profitable programs. And then, of course, international, which is a portfolio tailwind, as more of our business comes from international forces.
然後是一些更具結構性的項目,例如我們在電話中談到的組合轉變,我們的成本加成業務,過去幾年我們在這方面投入了大量精力,包括像 Sentinel 這樣預訂率較低的項目,隨著時間的推移,這些項目將轉向固定價格和更有利可圖的項目。當然,國際業務也是投資組合的順風,因為我們更多的業務來自國際力量。
So it's that full combination of paths that we are working. We're showing progress on each as we move forward, and it bolsters our confidence that we can drive this business to another 100 basis points of margin performance over the decade.
所以,我們正在努力實現多種路徑的完整組合。我們在前進的過程中在每個方面都取得了進展,這增強了我們的信心,我們可以在未來十年內推動這項業務的利潤率再提高 100 個基點。
David Strauss - Analyst
David Strauss - Analyst
Thanks. As we sit here today, would you expect margins to tick up next year off of the 11% level?
謝謝。今天我們坐在這裡,您是否預計明年利潤率將從 11% 的水平上升?
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
I would.
我會的。
David Strauss - Analyst
David Strauss - Analyst
Thanks. Appreciate it.
謝謝。非常感謝。
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Kathy J. Warden - Chair, CEO & President
Thank you. All right. So with that, I'd like to conclude by once again thanking our team for a fantastic quarter. And in particular, I want to recognize Mark Caylor, who is retiring from our company tomorrow after a distinguished Northrop Grumman career and over a decade on our executive leadership team.
謝謝。好的。最後,我想再次感謝我們的團隊取得如此出色的季度成績。我特別要感謝馬克凱勒 (Mark Caylor),他在諾斯羅普格魯曼公司有著傑出的職業生涯,並在我們的執行領導團隊中任職十多年,他將於明天從我們公司退休。
And also, I want to note that in the coming months, Dave, Todd, and I look forward to introducing Ken Crews, who is here with us in the room, to our investor community as our incoming CFO effective October 1. So in the meantime, we look forward to talking with you in October and seeing you over the course of the summer. And thanks again for joining our call today.
此外,我想指出的是,在接下來的幾個月裡,戴夫、托德和我期待向我們的投資者社區介紹今天在座的肯·克魯斯,他將從 10 月 1 日起擔任我們的新任財務長。因此,與此同時,我們期待在十月與您交談,並在夏季與您見面。再次感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。