諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's second-quarter 2024 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第二季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。我叫喬什，今天我將成為您的接線生。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

現在我想將電話轉給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Todd Ernst 先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. And welcome to Northrop Grumman's second-quarter 2024 conference call.

謝謝，喬什，大家早安。歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第二季電話會議。

Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2024 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議討論的事項，包括 2024 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可獲得的信息做出的判斷。它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性聲明。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司實際業績出現重大差異。

Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. And also, we will refer to a presentation that is posted on our Investor Relations website.

今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益發布中的 GAAP 業績一致的非 GAAP 財務指標。此外，我們還將參考發佈在我們投資者關係網站上的簡報。

On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁凱西沃登 (Kathy Warden)；以及我們的財務長戴夫凱弗 (Dave Keffer)。這時，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As you saw from this morning's earnings release, we delivered excellent operating results again this quarter, building on momentum from the first quarter.

謝謝，托德。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。正如您從今天早上的財報中看到的那樣，我們在第一季的勢頭基礎上，本季度再次取得了出色的經營業績。

Our company's ability to respond to US and international customer requirements with a wide range of advanced capabilities continues to drive strong growth, with sales up 7% in the quarter and 8% year to date. And our team's solid program performance, along with cost management discipline, led to operating income growth of 13% in the second quarter.

我們公司憑藉廣泛的先進功能滿足美國和國際客戶需求的能力持續推動強勁成長，本季銷售額成長 7%，年初至今成長 8%。我們團隊穩健的計畫績效以及成本管理紀律使得第二季營業收入成長了 13%。

The combined strength of our top and bottom-line operating results was the primary driver of our 19% EPS growth. And in addition, we delivered robust free cash flow, which is up over $500 million compared to the first half of last year. Based on these strong first half results and confidence in our team's ability to deliver on continued robust demand in the second half, we are increasing our 2024 revenue and EPS guidance.

我們的頂線和底線經營業績的綜合實力是我們 EPS 成長 19% 的主要推動力。此外，我們還提供了強勁的自由現金流，與去年上半年相比增加了 5 億多美元。基於上半年的強勁業績以及對我們團隊在下半年滿足持續強勁需求的能力的信心，我們正在提高 2024 年收入和每股盈餘指引。

The breadth and depth of our portfolio is an important differentiator, particularly when coupled with the effectiveness of our strategy in aligning our resources to anticipate and deliver on our customers' needs. Given this, I'm going to take the next couple of minutes to provide important context on our portfolio.

我們產品組合的廣度和深度是一個重要的差異化因素，特別是當我們的策略有效地調整我們的資源以預測和滿足客戶的需求時。有鑑於此，我將在接下來的幾分鐘內提供有關我們投資組合的重要背景資訊。

When you step back and look at the key components of our business, you'll see that 85% of our sales come from a diverse collection of technology-advanced capabilities, such as electronic communications, crewed and uncrewed aircraft, space payloads, advanced weapons, command and control systems, and other product areas which are critical to global security.

當您退一步看看我們業務的關鍵組成部分時，您會發現我們 85% 的銷售額來自各種先進技術能力，例如電子通訊、載人和無人駕駛飛機、太空有效載荷、先進武器、指揮和控制系統以及對全球安全至關重要的其他產品領域。

The capabilities we provide, often as a supplier, are in the nation's most advanced space, air, land, sea, and undersea platforms. In the last several years, we've been selected through dozens of competition to develop and build differentiating technologies that will provide an advantage to the US and our allies through the 2030s.

我們通常作為供應商提供的能力是在國家最先進的太空、空中、陸地、海上和海底平台中提供的。在過去幾年中，我們透過數十次競賽被選中開發和建構差異化技術，這些技術將在 2030 年代為美國及其盟友提供優勢。

The remaining 15% of our sales is comprised of two prime programs in support of the nation's strategic deterrent -- of course, that's Sentinel and B-21 -- with each generating a high single-digit percentage of our revenue today. And we expect that balance to continue for several years. With the recent realignment of our SCS division to our defense systems sector, we have four strong and differentiated segments that are more equal in size, with each having multiple avenues for profitable growth.

我們其餘15% 的銷售額由兩個主要項目組成，以支持國家戰略威懾——當然，那就是「哨兵」和B-21——每個項目都在我們今天的收入中產生了很高的個位數百分比。我們預計這種平衡將持續數年。隨著我們的 SCS 部門最近與國防系統部門的重組，我們擁有了四個強大且差異化的部門，這些部門的規模更加平等，每個部門都有多種獲利成長途徑。

Our business is well aligned with the US National Defense strategy. And as I've outlined, in recent years, we've won significant roles on long-term programs that address the threat environment of today and are expected to do so for the next several decades. In addition, we continue to expand exportable product offerings, and we are developing our international partner and supplier base to position us for the growing international markets.

我們的業務與美國國防戰略非常契合。正如我所概述的，近年來，我們在應對當今威脅環境的長期計劃中贏得了重要角色，預計在未來幾十年內也將如此。此外，我們繼續擴大可出口的產品供應，並正在發展我們的國際合作夥伴和供應商基礎，以使我們能夠適應不斷增長的國際市場。

We have also invested to increase our capacity to deliver the quantities of rocket motors, armaments, and air and missile defense capabilities needed by the US and our allies to defend freedom and deter aggression around the globe. Examples of this growth include the guided multiple launch rocket system, or GMLRS, where our year-to-date revenue has grown by nearly 60%.

我們還進行了投資，以提高我們提供美國及其盟國捍衛自由和阻止全球侵略所需的火箭發動機、武器以及空中和飛彈防禦能力的能力。這種成長的例子包括導引多發射火箭系統 (GMLRS)，我們今年迄今的營收成長了近 60%。

Additionally, we were awarded over $500 million in contract for ammunition that we will begin delivering in the third quarter. And we see additional demand for international ammunition opportunities in the coming quarters.

此外，我們還獲得了價值超過 5 億美元的彈藥合同，我們將於第三季開始交付。我們看到未來幾季對國際彈藥機會的額外需求。

Overall, the key takeaway is that the breadth of our portfolio, our alignment to the key priorities for the US and our allies, and our role on each leg of the US strategic triad provides us visibility into avenues for our business to grow even if US budget growth slows. And as we've discussed frequently, over the last two years, we're not just focused on top line growth; we're taking deliberate actions to enhance profitability through digital enablement, productivity, supplier management, and cost efficiency.

總體而言，關鍵的一點是，我們投資組合的廣度、我們與美國及其盟友的關鍵優先事項的一致性，以及我們在美國戰略三位一體各方面的作用，使我們能夠了解我們業務增長的途徑，即使美國預算成長放緩。正如我們經常討論的那樣，在過去的兩年裡，我們不僅關注營收成長，還關注營收成長。我們正在採取深思熟慮的行動，透過數位化支援、生產力、供應商管理和成本效率來提高獲利能力。

As we look at the remainder of this year and next, we expect solid growth across the portfolio to continue, particularly in areas such as weapon systems, advanced electronics, and aeronautics. International sales are also progressing from our pipeline to our backlog and are expected to contribute to increased sales and profitability.

展望今年剩餘時間和明年，我們預計整個投資組合將繼續穩健成長，特別是在武器系統、先進電子和航空等領域。國際銷售也從我們的待售訂單進度到我們的積壓訂單，預計將有助於增加銷售和獲利能力。

Our outlook is supported by the national security spending environment. In the US, the fiscal year 2025 defense budget is moving through the appropriations process with recent markups by Congress. We were pleased to see the Senate Arm Services Committee increased the FY25 top line by [$25 billion], and we're encouraged by continued support for investment in defense.

我們的前景得到了國家安全支出環境的支持。在美國，2025 財政年度國防預算正通過國會最近加價的撥款程序。我們很高興看到參議院軍事委員會將 2025 財年的收入增加了 [250 億美元]，我們對國防投資的持續支持感到鼓舞。

Northrop Grumman's programs, broadly, and particularly the B-21 Sentinel in Colombia, which provide the basis for the US strategic deterrent, continue to receive strong support, bolstering our view that we're well positioned in this such an environment. Given the importance of the triad to the nation's deterrence, I'll provide an update on two legs of the triad for which Northrop Grumman is the prime industry partner to the Department of Defense.

諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的計劃，特別是哥倫比亞的B-21 哨兵計劃，為美國的戰略威懾力量提供了基礎，繼續獲得強有力的支持，增強了我們的觀點，即我們在這種環境中處於有利地位。鑑於三合會對於國家威懾的重要性，我將提供諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司作為國防部主要工業合作夥伴的三合會兩條腿的最新情況。

So starting with Sentinel. Earlier this month, the DoD submitted to Congress certification of the Sentinel program as part of the Nunn-McCurdy process. This certification validates the need for the land-based leg of the triad and continued confidence in the Sentinel weapon system for the critical role it plays in safeguarding global security.

所以從哨兵開始。本月早些時候，國防部向國會提交了哨兵計畫的認證，作為納恩-麥科迪進程的一部分。該認證證實了對三位一體陸基部分的需求，以及對「哨兵」武器系統在維護全球安全中發揮的關鍵作用的持續信心。

DoD and the Air Force are working to restructure the program to reflect the latest cost and schedule estimates. The majority of the cost growth is expected to occur in the production phase of the program, which is beyond the current EMD phase and outside of the Future Years Defense Program or FYDP.

國防部和空軍正在努力重組該計劃，以反映最新的成本和進度估計。預計大部分成本成長將發生在該計劃的生產階段，該階段超出了當前的 EMD 階段，並且不屬於未來幾年國防計劃（FYDP）。

We continue to execute on our existing EMD contract, which includes the design, development, and testing of the full system. We are partnered with the Air Force on completing the design of all aspects of the system and have many of the systems' components already in development and tests, including all three stages of the missile, command and launch subsystems for launch activation, security and systems monitoring, as well as transportation and support equipment.

我們繼續執行現有的 EMD 合同，其中包括整個系統的設計、開發和測試。我們與空軍合作完成了系統各個方面的設計，並且許多系統組件已經處於開發和測試階段，包括導彈的所有三個階段、用於發射激活、安全和系統的​​命令和發射子系統監控以及運輸和支持裝置.

The progress we've made on the program is significant, and we remain committed to partnering with the US Air Force to identify ways to reduce the costs associated with fielding this system.

我們在該計劃上取得的進展是巨大的，我們仍然致力於與美國空軍合作，尋找降低部署該系統相關成本的方法。

So turning to the air leg of the triad. The B-21 is progressing well through the testing program and, as you know, has entered [low rate] initial production. The team continues to perform exceptionally well, and we remain within our schedule and cost estimates.

所以轉向三合會的空中腿。 B-21 的測試計劃進展順利，如您所知，已進入[低速]初始生產階段。團隊繼續表現出色，我們保持在計劃和成本估算範圍內。

As we recently shared, B-21 test pilots report that the aircraft is flying like the simulator, which is another indication that our digital environment has effectively predicted the performance of the aircraft, thus reducing new discovery and risk. For these reasons and more, we continue to believe in the significant value this program will create for customers and shareholders over time.

正如我們最近分享的，B-21 試飛員報告說飛機像模擬器一樣飛行，這再次表明我們的數位環境已經有效預測了飛機的性能，從而減少了新的發現和風險。基於這些原因以及其他原因，我們仍然相信該計劃隨著時間的推移將為客戶和股東創造巨大的價值。

It's important to note that while the B-21 program is very important, it contributes less than 10% of our total sales. And we expect that to remain the case through the decade. Assuming stable economic conditions and continued strong performance by our team, we also expect program margin dollars to grow annually from here as we complete the EMD program and, for five lots of production, move into advanced production awards on the more profitable lot six and beyond and add modernization and sustainment revenue to the program.

需要注意的是，雖然 B-21 計畫非常重要，但它貢獻的銷售額還不到我們總銷售額的 10%。我們預計這十年都會如此。假設經濟狀況穩定且我們團隊的業績持續強勁，我們還預計，隨著我們完成EMD 項目，項目利潤率將逐年增長，並且對於五個批次的生產，將在利潤更高的第六批次及之後進入高級生產獎並為該計劃增加現代化和維持收入。

As you can see, our portfolio includes a compelling mix of technology-driven capabilities and franchise programs that are well aligned to the evolving needs of all of our customers. As a result, we've grown our organic revenue at greater than 5% compound annual growth over the past five years, including 5% growth projected in our increased 2024 guidance.

正如您所看到的，我們的產品組合包括引人注目的技術驅動能力和特許經營計劃的組合，這些組合非常適合我們所有客戶不斷變化的需求。因此，過去五年我們的有機收入複合年增長率超過 5%，其中包括我們上調的 2024 年指導中預計的 5% 增長。

We also continue to rapidly expand our cash flows, including generating over $1 billion of free cash in the second quarter. Based on the strength of our portfolio, backlog, and performance trends, we are reiterating our long-term cash flow outlook, which assumes a greater than 15% compound annual growth rate through 2026.

我們也持續快速擴大現金流，包括在第二季產生超過 10 億美元的自由現金。根據我們的投資組合、積壓訂單和業績趨勢的實力，我們重申我們的長期現金流前景，假設到 2026 年複合年增長率超過 15%。

To support growth in our business, we're maintaining our investments and capabilities across the company. We continue to target $1.8 billion in capital expenditures this year, which is around 4.5% of revenue and well above the industry average.

為了支持我們的業務成長，我們正在維持整個公司的投資和能力。我們今年的資本支出目標持續為 18 億美元，約為營收的 4.5%，遠高於產業平均。

Including R&D, we're investing approximately $3 billion in our portfolio. At the same time, we're efficiently returning capital to shareholders, including $2.3 billion in the first half of the year. In May, we increased the dividend by 10%. This is our 21st consecutive annual increase as we continue to focus on delivering competitive sustainable dividend growth.

包括研發在內，我們在投資組合中投資了約 30 億美元。同時，我們正有效率地向股東返還資本，其中包括今年上半年的 23 億美元。 5月份，我們將股息增加了10%。這是我們連續 21 次年度成長，因為我們繼續專注於提供有競爭力的可持續股息成長。

Before I turn the call over to Dave to provide more details on our financial performance and outlook, I'd like to thank our team for another great quarter as we continue to execute on our long-term strategy. We have an outstanding portfolio, a high-performing team, and a bright outlook for the future.

在我將電話轉給戴夫以提供有關我們財務業績和前景的更多詳細信息之前，我要感謝我們的團隊在我們繼續執行長期戰略的過程中又創造了一個出色的季度。我們擁有出色的產品組合、高績效的團隊和光明的未來前景。

So with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Dave.

因此，我將把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Before covering our Q2 results and outlook, I'd like to take a moment and provide some context around our financials, given the recent segment realignment.

謝謝，凱西，大家早安。在介紹我們第二季的業績和前景之前，考慮到最近的部門調整，我想花點時間提供一些有關我們財務狀況的背景資訊。

As Kathy noted, the strategic deterrent systems division, which includes Sentinel and other related programs, moved from our space systems segment to our defense systems segment effective July 1. Second-quarter results have been reported in the prior organizational structure given the effective date of the realignment, but we've provided a table in the earnings release and earnings slides that recast sales and margin for current and historical periods under the new organizational structure.

正如凱西指出的那樣，戰略威懾系統部門（包括“哨兵”和其他相關計劃）已從我們的空間系統部門轉移到我們的防禦系統部門，自 7 月 1 日起生效。發布和收益幻燈片中提供了一個表格，在新的組織結構下重新調整了當前和歷史時期的銷售額和利潤率。

Moving forward, we will report third quarter results and beyond under the new structure. And our updated financial guidance is also under the new structure. So with that, let's get into our second-quarter results.

展望未來，我們將在新結構下報告第三季及以後的業績。我們更新的財務指引也是在新的架構下進行的。那麼，讓我們來看看第二季的業績。

Starting with demand. Q2 net awards totaled over $15 billion, generating a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 times and increasing our backlog to over $83 billion. As a result of our strong year-to-date performance, we now expect a full-year book-to-bill ratio of more than 1 times sales.

從需求開始。第二季淨獎勵總額超過 150 億美元，訂單出貨比達到 1.5 倍，並將我們的積壓訂單增加到超過 830 億美元。由於我們年初至今的強勁表現，我們現在預計全年的訂單出貨比將超過銷售額的 1 倍。

Turning to our top-line results on slide 4 in our earnings deck. Second-quarter sales were $10.2 billion, an increase of 7% compared to the same period in 2023. All four segments generated year-over-year growth again in Q2. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect a gradual ramp in our quarterly sales profile, with Q3 sales projected to be roughly in line with Q2.

轉向我們收益表中投影片 4 上的頂線業績。第二季銷售額為 102 億美元，較 2023 年同期成長 7%。展望今年下半年，我們預期季度銷售額將逐步上升，第三季銷售額預計將與第二季大致持平。

Aeronautics' second-quarter sales increased by 14% with similar drivers to Q1. Higher volume on B-21, F-35, and Triton again led the way. At DS sales grew by 7%, primarily due to higher volume on certain military ammunition programs and higher volume from the timing of materials on GMLRS.

航空業第二季銷售額成長 14%，推動因素與第一季類似。 B-21、F-35 和 Triton 的銷量再次領先。 DS 的銷售額成長了 7%，主要是由於某些軍用彈藥項目的銷量增加以及 GMLRS 材料的時間安排導致銷量增加。

Mission systems sales increased by 5%, with continued strong growth on advanced microelectronics programs, our marine systems portfolio, and SEWIP. And at space, sales were up by 2%, driven by growth on the SDA transport layer programs and GEM 63 solid rocket motors, partially offset by lower sales in the restricted space portfolio.

任務系統銷售額成長了 5%，先進微電子專案、我們的海洋系統產品組合和 SEWIP 持續強勁成長。在太空領域，受 SDA 傳輸層項目和 GEM 63 固體火箭發動機增長的推動，銷售額增長了 2%，但部分被受限太空產品組合銷售額下降所抵消。

Bottom-line results were also very strong, with segment operating income up 5% year over year and total operating income up 13%. These results reflect another solid quarter of overall program performance as well as lower corporate unallocated expense.

淨利潤也非常強勁，分部營業收入較去年同期成長 5%，總營業收入成長 13%。這些結果反映了整體計劃績效又一個強勁的季度以及較低的公司未分配費用。

AS operating income grew by 6%, generating an operating margin rate of 10% for the second straight quarter. These results have provided an example of how strong program performance, focused productivity initiatives, and indirect cost efficiencies can generate margin rates at these levels even as we ramp on B-21.

AS 營業收入成長 6%，營業利益率連續第二季達到 10%。這些結果提供了一個例子，說明即使我們在 B-21 上加大力度，強大的計劃績效、集中的生產力計劃和間接成本效率也可以在這些水平上產生利潤率。

Speaking of B-21, there were no significant changes to our LRIP EAC again this quarter. There are currently 21 aircraft in baseline for the first five LRIP lots and another 19 production aircraft subsequent to these for which we have not to exceed, or NTE, pricing.

說到 B-21，本季我們的 LRIP EAC 再次沒有重大變化。目前，前 5 批 LRIP 批次中有 21 架飛機處於基準狀態，隨後還有 19 架生產飛機，我們不得超出定價或 NTE 定價。

These prices were set in 2018. And given that the production for those lots was well into the future, the average unit NTE price was set above the average LRIP price. The NTE lots include an economic price adjustment clause to protect against certain inflationary pressures.

這些價格是在 2018 年設定的。 NTE 批次包含經濟價格調整條款，以防範某些通膨壓力。

Pricing, final quantities, and terms and conditions have yet to be fully negotiated for these additional aircraft. Based on our current projections, we expect to be able to execute the NTE lots profitably.

這些額外飛機的定價、最終數量以及條款和條件尚未充分協商。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計執行 NTE 批次能夠獲利。

As you think about the trajectory of the overall program, we expect to begin work on long-lead items related to the NTE lots in 2026. Overall production will continue to ramp through the second half of the decade. And we expect that production sales will become larger than EMD beginning in 2026.

當您考慮整個計劃的軌跡時，我們預計將在 2026 年開始與 NTE 批次相關的長週期專案的工作。我們預計從 2026 年開始，產量銷售將超過 EMD。

Other B-21 efforts for modernization and sustainment will also begin to grow over the next couple of years and are expected to generate profit rates that are accretive to the overall program. Taking all these factors together, we currently project that margin dollars for the overall program will gradually expand going forward, as Kathy outlined.

B-21 的其他現代化和維護工作也將在未來幾年開始成長，預計將產生有利於整個專案的利潤率。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們目前預計整個計劃的保證金將在未來逐漸擴大，正如凱西所概述的那樣。

Defense systems had a particularly strong quarter, with operating income up 23% and a margin rate of 13.5%. Higher net EAC adjustments and favorable changes in contract mix contributed to their significant year-over-year improvement.

國防系統季度表現尤其強勁，營業收入成長 23%，利潤率為 13.5%。較高的淨 EAC 調整和合約組合的有利變化促成了其同比顯著改善。

At mission systems, operating margin rate was 13%, which was lower than Q2 of last year. Similar to Q1, this was a result of lower net EAC adjustments and changes in contract mix towards more cost-type contracts.

任務系統的營業利益率為13%，低於去年第二季。與第一季類似，這是由於淨 EAC 調整較低以及合約組合向更多成本型合約變化的結果。

While margin rates at current levels remain very competitive, they are below MS's historical performance, and we continue to see opportunities to improve margins in the second half of the year. These improvements will be driven by continued investments we're making in our factories to improve performance and increase production volumes as well as from the business mix shifting to more fixed price work.

雖然目前水準的利潤率仍然非常有競爭力，但低於微軟的歷史業績，我們繼續看到下半年提高利潤率的機會。這些改進將由我們對工廠的持續投資來推動，以提高性能和增加產量，以及業務組合轉向更固定價格的工作。

Space had another solid quarter of operating performance, with operating income increasing 14% from the prior year, generating a margin rate of 9.1%. We've seen improvements in space program performance for multiple quarters now as a result of deliberate actions we've taken in the business.

Space 另一個季度的營運業績表現強勁，營運收入較上年增長 14%，利潤率為 9.1%。由於我們在業務中採取了深思熟慮的行動，我們已經看到太空計劃績效已經連續多個季度有所改善。

Moving to earnings per share on slide 6. Q2 diluted EPS was $6.36. This represents an increase of 19% from the prior year, driven by continued strong growth in segment performance as well as from higher net pension income and lower corporate unallocated expense.

轉到幻燈片 6 上的每股收益。這比上一年增長了 19%，這得益於分部業績持續強勁增長以及養老金淨收入增加和企業未分配費用減少的推動。

Rounding out our Q2 results is cash flow. We had an excellent quarter of cash generation with Q2 free cash flow of $1.1 billion, up 80% compared to our results from Q2 of last year and on track with our expectations for the full year. We returned approximately $900 million to investors in Q2 via dividends and share repurchases, while also continuing to make strategic investments in our business.

我們第二季業績的最後一項是現金流。我們的季度現金流表現出色，第二季自由現金流為 11 億美元，比去年第二季的業績成長 80%，符合我們對全年的預期。第二季度，我們透過股利和股票回購向投資者返還約 9 億美元，同時繼續對我們的業務進行策略性投資。

Slide 7 includes our latest segment guidance based on our new organizational structure. We are increasing our sales guidance at both AS and MS, neither of which were affected by the sector realignment. AS is now projected in the high $11 billion, and MS is projected in the mid-$11 billion.

投影片 7 包括我們基於新組織架構的最新細分指南。我們正在提高 AS 和 MS 的銷售指導，這兩個部門都沒有受到行業調整的影響。 AS 目前預計為 110 億美元，MS 預計為 110 億美元。

The increases are driven by the strength of their year-to-date results and expectations for the rest of the year. As we indicated on our Q1 call, aeronautics sales are expected to flatten out in the second half of the year based on timing of materials and production schedules.

這些成長是由今年迄今的強勁業績和對今年剩餘時間的預期所推動的。正如我們在第一季電話會議中指出的那樣，根據材料和生產計劃的時間安排，航空銷售預計將在今年下半年趨於平穩。

We've also updated our margin expectations for AS and MS. We now expect a margin rate at aeronautics of mid to high 9%, reflecting their ability to generate strong margins across their mix of mature production programs and early-stage development programs. The increase at AS offsets the decrease in margin rate at MS, which is now projected at low to mid 14%.

我們也更新了 AS 和 MS 的利潤預期。我們現在預計航空業的利潤率將達到 9% 的中高水平，這反映出他們透過成熟生產計劃和早期開發計劃的組合產生強勁利潤的能力。 AS 的成長抵消了 MS 保證金率的下降，目前預計保證金率為 14% 中低。

At DS, we've increased our sales guidance this year to roughly $9 billion. This reflects the realignment of the SDS division to DS, which is expected to generate sales this year of roughly $2.7 billion. The increase also reflects our expectations for higher sales volume associated with ammunition and weapons replenishment.

在 DS，我們將今年的銷售指引提高到約 90 億美元。這反映了 SDS 部門與 DS 的重組，預計今年的銷售額將達到約 27 億美元。這一增長也反映了我們對彈藥和武器補給相關銷售增加的預期。

We expect space sales to be relatively flat this year, projected in the mid- to high $11 billion range, and to be down somewhat in 2025. This profile is driven by the removal of NGI and the restricted program during 2024, which collectively had a run rate of about $1.5 billion in annualized sales. Those headwinds affect both this year and next, of which the larger impact will be experienced in 2025.

我們預計今年的空間銷售將相對平穩，預計在 110 億美元的中高端範圍內，並在 2025 年有所下降。化銷售額約15 億美元。這些不利因素會影響今年和明年，其中更大的影響將在 2025 年受到影響。

We expect the rest of the space portfolio to continue to grow. Overall, we expect a relatively stable level of margin dollars in space in 2025 as the margin rate grows and offsets pressure from lower volume.

我們預計其餘的太空投資組合將持續成長。總體而言，隨著保證金率的增長並抵消交易量下降的壓力，我們預計 2025 年保證金水準將保持相對穩定。

Space's guidance also reflects higher intercompany sales primarily associated with propulsion activities in support of the Sentinel program. This also has the effect of increasing company-level eliminations to roughly $2.7 billion.

Space 的指引也反映出公司間銷售額的增加，主要與支持哨兵計畫的推進活動相關。這也導致公司層級的消減額增加至約 27 億美元。

We expect a margin rate at DS of approximately 10% this year and a low 10% rate at space given the shifts in the portfolio. In total, we now expect company-level sales of $41 billion to $41.4 billion, representing 5% growth at the midpoint. We continue to expect segment OM dollars to grow at roughly the same rate as sales.

鑑於投資組合的變化，我們預計今年 DS 的保證金率約為 10%，而 space 的保證金率則較低，為 10%。總的來說，我們現在預計公司層級的銷售額為 410 億美元至 414 億美元，中間值成長 5%。我們繼續預期該部門的 OM 美元將以與銷售額大致相同的速度成長。

We've lowered our expectations for corporate unallocated expense to $150 million based on year-to-date trends. We continue to expect corporate unallocated expense to be weighted toward the second half of the year, consistent with prior years.

根據今年迄今的趨勢，我們將企業未分配支出的預期降低至 1.5 億美元。我們繼續預期企業未分配費用將在今年下半年加權，與往年一致。

We've increased our expectation for the federal tax rate to the mid-17% and slightly lowered our expectation for interest expense to roughly $650 million. As we've noted in prior quarters, we're monitoring for any favorable or unfavorable updates in tax legislation, audits, and appeals processes that, by their nature, are not factored into our guidance.

我們將聯邦稅率預期上調至 17% 左右，並將利息支出預期小幅下調至約 6.5 億美元。正如我們在前幾個季度所指出的，我們正在監控稅務立法、審計和上訴流程中任何有利或不利的更新，這些更新就其性質而言，並未納入我們的指導中。

And based on the latest plans for a higher volume of share repurchases, we've lowered our estimate for weighted average shares outstanding to the mid $147 million. Altogether, our strong performance and outlook results in an increase of $0.45 to our diluted EPS range. We had a strong first half of the year, and we're looking forward to continuing to create value in the second half and beyond.

根據最新的增加股票回購規模的計劃，我們將加權平均已發行股票的預期下調至 1.47 億美元中間。總而言之，我們強勁的業績和前景導致稀釋後每股收益範圍增加 0.45 美元。我們上半年表現強勁，我們期待在下半年及以後繼續創造價值。

So with that, let's open up the call for questions.

那麼，就讓我們開始提問吧。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

謝謝。 （操作員指示）Kristine Liwag，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning, Kathy and Dave.

嘿。早上好，凱西和戴夫。

Good morning.

早安.

I want to understand a little better the 19 B-21s under a not-to-exceed pricing agreement. I mean, I understand that the ceiling for the average unit price is higher than the first 21 aircrafts. But how do we get comfortable that these next 19 aircrafts are indeed profitable as final pricing is yet to be determined?

我想更了解 19 架 B-21 在不超過定價協議下的情況。我的意思是，據我了解，平均單價的上限比前21架飛機高。但由於最終定價尚未確定，我們如何確信接下來的 19 架飛機確實能夠獲利呢？

And then also as a follow-up, I think you both mentioned that lot six is more profitable. I just want to clarify, does this mean absolute positive margin on the program? And -- or is that a relative comment to the previous lots? I just want to understand the dynamics a little bit better on the B-21. Thank you.

然後，作為後續行動，我想你們都提到了第六批更有利可圖。我只是想澄清一下，這是否意味著該計劃的絕對正利潤？或者說這是對之前拍品的相對評論？我只是想更了解 B-21 的動態。謝謝。

Sure, Kristine, happy to clarify a few of those points. As you've noted, the NTE lots that follow the first five LRIP lots are currently projected to be more profitable than the LRIP lots. And to clarify that further, we are projecting a positive profit rate in lot six based on our current projections.

當然，克里斯汀很樂意澄清其中的一些觀點。正如您所指出的，前五個 LRIP 批次之後的 NTE 批次目前預計比 LRIP 批次利潤更高。為了進一步澄清這一點，我們根據目前的預測預計第六批的利潤率為正。

So to your point, those NTE prices are set higher than the prices that are expected for the first five lots. And with cost efficiencies that we're working hard to drive and program performance and productivity efforts very much in progress, our current projections indicate positive profitability for those lots.

因此，就您而言，這些 NTE 價格設定得高於前 5 批地塊的預期價格。由於我們正在努力提高成本效率，並且計劃性能和生產力工作正在取得很大進展，我們目前的預測表明這些批次的盈利能力良好。

Thank you. Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

嗨，早安。感謝您提出問題。

Morning, Scott.

早安，史考特。

Dave, just to follow-up on Kristine's question. Is the difference on B-21 units 22 to 40 that they have both a higher average base price and the EPA cost protection or that units 1 to 22 also have that EPA protection?

戴夫，我想跟進克里斯汀的問題。 B-21 22 至 40 號機組的差異在於它們具有更高的平均基本價格和 EPA 成本保護，還是 1 至 22 號機組也具有 EPA 保護？

The -- I think you're right, those are both important points about the NTE lots, that they are set higher. They also do include an EPA clause. That is one we're monitoring carefully. So both are important to keep in mind as eventual pricing and terms and quantities are finalized for those portions of the program.

我認為你是對的，這些都是關於 NTE 地段的重要點，它們被設置得更高。它們還包含 EPA 條款。這是我們正在仔細監控的一個。因此，隨著計劃的這些部分的最終定價、條款和數量最終確定，這兩點都很重要。

Okay. Great. And then, Kathy, there was a news article a while back about the issue the industry faces and sourcing ammonium percolate for making solid rocket motors. Is that something you guys have made some good headway on? And based on your comment on GMLRS output being up 60%, it sounds like the answer is yes, but just curious for your perspective. Thanks.

好的。偉大的。然後，凱西，不久前有一篇新聞文章介紹了該行業面臨的問題以及採購滲濾銨用於製造固體火箭發動機的問題。你們在這方面取得了一些進展嗎？根據您對 GMLRS 輸出增加 60% 的評論，聽起來答案是肯定的，但只是對您的觀點感到好奇。謝謝。

Yes, Scott. Thank you for the question. We did recognize this as a constraining factor in our supply chain for solid rocket motors four or five years ago. And the team brought forward a business case, which we funded to create an alternate supply. And we have done so, which gives us more confidence in our ability to manage that supply.

是的，斯科特。感謝你的提問。四、五年前，我們確實認識到這是我們固體火箭發動機供應鏈的一個限制因素。該團隊提出了一個商業案例，我們資助該案例創建替代供應。我們已經這樣做了，這讓我們對自己管理供應的能力更有信心。

We also, of course, are buying AP from other sources as well. We are not the single supplier of our own AP, but we did add to the overall production capacity, which has improved our ability for predictability on SRM, solid rocket motors.

當然，我們也從其他來源購買 AP。我們不是我們自己的 AP 的唯一供應商，但我們確實增加了整體產能，這提高了我們對 SRM、固體火箭發動機的預測能力。

Thank you. Rob Stallard, Vertical Research.

謝謝。羅布·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Thanks so much. Good morning.

非常感謝。早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Kathy, on Sentinel, there's been some reports that the customer is not happy with the way this program has been progressing so far. And I was wondering, first of all, what risk is there that Northrop could be on the hook for additional charges on this program? And then secondly, what you're trying to do practically to improve the cost profile on Sentinel? Thank you.

Kathy，在 Sentinel 上，有一些報告指出客戶對該計劃迄今為止的進展方式不滿意。我想知道，首先，諾斯羅普可能會因該計劃而承擔額外費用，有什麼風險？其次，您實際上正在嘗試做什麼來改善 Sentinel 的成本狀況？謝謝。

Yeah. Well, thank you. The DoD did a thorough review of the program as part of the Nunn-McCurdy process, and they were very transparent about the results of that review. For those of you who haven't seen it, they did a press release, they conducted media interviews about 1.5 weeks ago to share those results, and they met with many members of Congress.

是的。嗯，謝謝。作為納恩-麥科迪進程的一部分，國防部對該計劃進行了徹底的審查，並且他們對該審查的結果非常透明。對於那些還沒有看到的人，他們發布了一份新聞稿，他們在大約 1.5 週前進行了媒體採訪來分享這些結果，他們會見了許多國會議員。

And in that process, they have not pointed to industry performance as the cause of cost growth. The things that they have pointed to include inflation, obviously, particularly as we look at the deployment cost -- there's a big construction component of this job -- and also the assumptions that were made many years ago that underestimated the complexity of the program. Those were the two primary costs growth drivers that were identified.

在此過程中，他們並沒有將產業表現視為成本成長的原因。他們指出的事情顯然包括通貨膨脹，特別是當我們考慮部署成本時——這項工作有很大的建設部分——以及多年前所做的低估了該計劃複雜性的假設。這是已確定的兩個主要成本成長驅動因素。

We are working with the Air Force to identify ways to perform better than those cost estimates, and we will continue to do that. We are looking at everything from design alternatives that they have referenced in the restructure of the program to ensuring we have the right team in place to execute on every part of the program in that deployment and production phase.

我們正在與空軍合作，尋找比這些成本估算更好的方法，我們將繼續這樣做。我們正在考慮一切，從他們在專案重組中引用的設計替代方案，到確保我們有合適的團隊在部署和生產階段執行專案的每個部分。

And of course, we are continuing to bolster our own staff and systems engineering on the program. But the reality is that most aspects of the program are progressing very well, and the Air Force has publicly made those comments. We are very focused on the ground infrastructure, which is the piece of the program that is driving the vast majority of the cost growth; and that's what our focus will continue to be through the restructure.

當然，我們正在繼續加強我們自己的員工和系統工程的專案。但現實情況是，該計劃的大部分方面都進展順利，空軍也公開發表了這些評論。我們非常關注地面基礎設施，這是該計劃中推動絕大多數成本成長的部分；這就是我們在重組過程中將繼續關注的重點。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. Jason Gursky, Citi.

謝謝。賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Yeah, Kathy, just a quick follow-up to that last commentary. There was an article yesterday with some comments from somebody up on the hill, a senator, I think, that did mention Northrop. So I'm just curious if we can some context about your recent visit -- it sounds like you made up to the hill -- and why you'd have somebody in Congress making some comments that are a little bit contrary to what you just mentioned.

是的，凱西，只是對最後一條評論的快速跟進。昨天有一篇文章，其中有來自山上某個人的一些評論，我想是一位參議員，其中確實提到了諾斯羅普。所以我很好奇我們能否了解一下您最近訪問的背景——聽起來您正在胡編亂造——以及為什麼國會中有人會發表一些與您剛才的內容有點相反的評論提及。

Well, I'm not going to comment on any individual meetings that I had. But I have had a number of meetings with members of Congress on both sides of the aisle, and they have generally been very supportive of the need for the program and our team's role in that program.

好吧，我不會對我舉行的任何單獨會議發表評論。但我與國會兩黨議員進行了多次會面，他們普遍非常支持該計劃的必要性以及我們團隊在該計劃中的作用。

And I will also just note that the Department of Defense speak for the program and their findings on the Nunn-McCurdy, and have spoken very clearly about that. The final thing I'll suggest is that while not everyone is a supporter of the land-based leg of the triad, you can look at the vote and the appropriations, which have fully funded the program; and it's more reflective of the landscape I painted, which is broad-based congressional support for the program and our role in it.

我還要指出的是，國防部代表該計劃及其對納恩-麥科迪號的調查結果發表了講話，並且已經對此進行了非常明確的闡述。我要建議的最後一件事是，雖然不是每個人都是三合會的陸基部分的支持者，但你可以看看投票和撥款，它們已經為該計劃提供了全額資金；它更能反映我所描繪的景觀，即國會對該計劃的廣泛支持以及我們在其中的作用。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

謝謝。希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Good morning, Kathy and Dave. Thank you -- and Todd. Maybe if we could just talk about your mission systems business. It's been a solid double-digit business, and you stepped down this quarter. How do we think about that mix impact, lower EACs?

早上好，凱西和戴夫。謝謝你——還有托德。也許我們可以談談您的任務系統業務。這是一項穩定的兩位數業務，而您本季辭職了。我們如何看待混合影響、較低的 EAC？

And there's 100 basis points of ramp in the second half versus H1. How did that evolve? And how do we think about that longer term?

與上半年相比，下半年有 100 個基點的成長。這是如何演變的？我們如何看待這個長期目標？

The way I would characterize that is -- I think, first of all, you've touched on a key point, that the mix in MS has shifted over the last few years to be more heavily cost type in nature. We think that mix will shift back in the direction of more fixed price work over the next several years.

我對此的描述方式是——我認為，首先，您已經觸及了一個關鍵點，即過去幾年中 MS 的組合已經轉變為本質上更昂貴的類型。我們認為，未來幾年這種組合將轉向更固定價格的方向。

A lot of the growth in MS in recent years has been large, cost-type development programs, leading technology efforts across its multiple mission areas. And as a result, its cost-type mix has gone from the mid-30% back in 2021 to the mid-40% this year.

近年來，MS 的許多成長都是大型的、成本型的開發項目，在其多個任務領域中引領技術努力。因此，其成本類型組合從 2021 年的 30% 左右上升到今年的 40% 左右。

Gradually, that will shift downward over time to include the second half of this year when, consistent with last year, some of our greater sales volume in the second half in MS will be driven by programs that are more predominantly fixed price in nature. And that will blend the mix upward even as soon as the second half of this year.

隨著時間的推移，這種情況將逐漸向下轉變，包括今年下半年，與去年一致，下半年我們在 MS 領域的部分較大銷量將由本質上更主要是固定價格的計劃推動。最快到今年下半年，這種混合就會向上混合。

But I think another important point is the set of deliberate actions we're taking to improve productivity and performance and cost efficiency in our mission systems business as we're scaling to meet increased demand in our factories. And improvements there are being felt already in the business and are another driver of our confidence in second half margins for MS being higher than those we've delivered in this half.

但我認為另一個重要的一點是，我們正在採取一系列深思熟慮的行動，以提高我們的任務系統業務的生產力、性能和成本效率，因為我們正在擴大規模以滿足工廠不斷增長的需求。業務中已經感受到了改善，這是我們對 MS 下半年利潤率高於上半年的信心的另一個推動因素。

We're working closely with our suppliers and our production teams in MS to continue to deliver on those efforts and expect progress in the second half and beyond.

我們正在與 MS 的供應商和生產團隊密切合作，繼續實現這些努力，並期望在下半年及以後取得進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

謝謝。賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Thanks very much and good morning. I wanted to dig in a little bit on the space decline you talked about for next year. It looks like off of the revised numbers, maybe it's a modest decline this year.

非常感謝，早安。我想深入探討您提到的明年的空間下降問題。看起來與修訂後的數字不同，今年可能略有下降。

When we think about what's coming next year and the ability to grow in -- I think you talked earlier, Kathy, about growing again in 2025, the ability to grow in 2025 relative to the 5% growth rate that you're expecting for this year. Is it possible to make any comments about that at this point?

當我們思考明年會發生什麼以及增長的能力時，凱西，我想你之前談到了 2025 年的再次增長，相對於你預期的 5% 的增長率，2025 年的增長能力年。目前是否可以對此發表評論？

Sure. With the increase in our guidance this quarter, we expect 5% growth again this year following a period, as I said, of about 5% compound annual growth for the last five years. So looking forward, we'd expect solid growth across three of our four segments with the strong demand that I talked about earlier in the call, balanced across the portfolio.

當然。隨著本季指引的提高，我們預計今年將再次實現 5% 的成長，正如我所說，過去五年複合年增長率約為 5%。因此，展望未來，我們預計四個細分市場中的三個細分市場將實現穩健成長，伴隨著我在電話會議早些時候談到的強勁需求，以及整個投資組合的平衡。

Space is likely to be the exception to that next year. We are guiding around flat this year and down modestly next. And that's due largely to the impact of [NCI] and the restricted program that we talked about earlier this year being canceled. And then we do expect space to return to growth in 2026.

明年太空可能是個例外。我們今年的指導價基本上持平，明年則小幅下調。這主要是由於 [NCI] 的影響以及我們今年早些時候討論的限制計劃被取消。我們確實預計空間將在 2026 年恢復成長。

So it's too soon to provide a detailed guide for 2025 at a company level, but that gives you a sense of the dynamics that we're expecting in the various segments. And with the broad-based portfolio that we have, the slight decline that we expect in sales in space next year do not change our outlook for the company as a whole.

因此，現在在公司層級提供 2025 年的詳細指南還為時過早，但這可以讓您了解我們對各個細分市場的預期動態。憑藉我們擁有的廣泛投資組合，我們預計明年太空銷售額的小幅下降不會改變我們對整個公司的前景。

Okay. Okay. Thanks. And then maybe as a quick follow-up. In aeronautics, we've seen some fairly strong margin performance early this year and led to the guidance increase. I guess, are there specific things to point to for the second half that will pull that down below 10%?

好的。好的。謝謝。然後也許作為快速跟進。在航空領域，我們在今年年初看到了一些相當強勁的利潤率表現，並導致了指引的增加。我想，下半年有什麼具體的事情可以將這個數字拉低到 10% 以下嗎？

Sure, Seth, happy to comment on that further. To your point, it was a really solid first half of the year and a solid second quarter for the AS business. So top and bottom-line performance were strong.

當然，賽斯，很高興對此進行進一步評論。就您而言，對於 AS 業務來說，上半年和第二季確實表現強勁。因此，營收和利潤表現都很強勁。

And really, since the beginning of the year, we've been projecting and noting that the sales growth rate would moderate a bit in the second half of the year because of the timing of top line-items in aeronautics, supplier deliveries and such, both on B-21 and on programs like F-35 that were going to lead to higher volume in the first half of the year than we saw a year ago. So that's where we've seen the really strong year-over-year growth rates in the first half.

實際上，自今年年初以來，我們一直在預測並注意到，由於航空、供應商交付等頂級項目的時間安排，下半年的銷售成長率將略有放緩， B-21 和F-35 等項目都將導致今年上半年的銷售量比一年前更高。這就是我們在上半年看到的非常強勁的年成長率。

We've been able to increase our guide for both sales and margin rate for the year. But to your point, it will involve slightly slower growth and slightly lower margin rates in the second half.

我們已經能夠提高今年的銷售額和利潤率指南。但就您而言，下半年的成長將略有放緩，利潤率將略有下降。

We have initially guided 9.5% for the year and have now increased that rate because of the first two quarters at 10%. So we're continuing to project a really strong rate for the year. And I think that's evidence of the fact that we have a diversified mix of programs in AS. And programs like our support for F-35 as well as Triton E-2D and others are in healthy production levels where we're doing a great job for our customers and delivering strong results for investors.

我們最初預計今年的成長率為 9.5%，現在由於前兩個季度的成長率為 10%，所以提高了這一比率。因此，我們將繼續預計今年的利率將非常強勁。我認為這證明了我們在 AS 領域擁有多元化的專案組合。我們對 F-35 以及 Triton E-2D 和其他專案的支援都處於健康的生產水平，我們正在為客戶做出色的工作，並為投資者帶來強勁的成果。

Thank you. Gavin Parsons, UBS.

謝謝。加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Morning.

謝謝。早晨。

Good morning.

早安.

I appreciate all the detail on B-21. That's really helpful, especially in terms of EBIT dollars growth. When do you foresee the peak margin rate headwind occurring from that program?

我很欣賞 B-21 的所有細節。這確實很有幫助，特別是在息稅前利潤成長方面。您預計該計劃何時會出現高峰保證金率逆風？

So Gavin, what we have shared today suggests our modeling of the program would see increased dollar growth from here and on earnings and modest sales growth. So you can anticipate, even though we didn't specifically outline it, that we are at the trough of margin rate performance on the program in our current modeling.

因此，加文，我們今天分享的內容表明，我們對該計劃的模型將看到美元的增長從這裡開始，並基於收入和適度的銷售增長。因此，即使我們沒有具體概述，您也可以預見到，在我們目前的模型中，我們正處於該計劃的保證金率表現的低谷。

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. And then I guess on the expectation for equitable adjustment on lot six or beyond, I think there was some expectation that there might be one on the first five LRIPs. Is it more contractual now on the forward expectation?

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。然後我猜想，關於對第六批或更多批次的公平調整的預期，我認為有人預期前五個 LRIP 可能會有一個。現在的遠期預期是否更具契約性？

So the difference with the NTE pricing is that the pricing itself has an economic price adjustment clause in it for the EPA contracts, which, of course, we have not negotiated or definitized. The LRIP did not have an EPA clause. So any inflation relief that we get on those contracts is additive to the term.

因此，與 NTE 定價的區別在於，定價本身包含針對 EPA 合約的經濟價格調整條款，當然，我們還沒有談判或確定這一條款。 LRIP 沒有 EPA 條款。因此，我們在這些合約中獲得的任何通膨緩解都是對該期限的附加。

Thank you. Cai von Rumohr, TD Cowen.

謝謝。蔡·馮·魯莫爾，TD·考恩。

Thanks so much. So help me understand on B-21. I mean you took close to $1.6 billion charge over five lots. That's roughly $300 million a lot. So I assume that's moving from about zero last year up to $300 million, negative. How do you get enough profit to offset that? Or when you talk about profit dollars improving, are you talking from an accrued basis where you've taken the charge already?

非常感謝。所以請幫我了解 B-21。我的意思是，您在五個批次中收取了近 16 億美元的費用。這大約是 3 億美元。所以我認為這個數字會從去年的大約零上升到 3 億美元，也就是負值。你如何獲得足夠的利潤來抵銷這一點？或者，當您談論利潤改善時，您是從已經收取費用的應計基礎上談論的嗎？

Right. Cai, it's the latter. We took that charge last year. So we're talking about the anticipated results from the program going forward.

正確的。蔡，是後者。去年我們承擔了這項責任。因此，我們正在討論該計劃未來的預期結果。

Got it. Thank you very much. And then secondly, they're talking about restructuring the Sentinel program. Is that likely to be, in your opinion, Kathy, an opportunity or a risk for Northrop Grumman?

知道了。非常感謝。其次，他們正在討論重組哨兵計畫。凱西，您認為這對諾斯羅普格魯曼公司來說是機會還是風險？

At this point, Cai, what I would say is that the cost growth that is being talked about and which drove the Nunn-McCurdy is mostly outside of the EMD phase of the program, which, of course, is what we are on contract for and, therefore, what our financial projections reflect. And we do reflect the modest cost growth that we're expecting in the EMD contract in our financials, so you see that reflected in the Q2 booking rate.

在這一點上，Cai，我要說的是，正在討論的、推動 Nunn-McCurdy 的成本增長大部分不在該項目的 EMD 階段，當然，這正是我們簽訂的合同因此，我們的財務預測反映了什麼。我們確實在財務數據中反映了 EMD 合約中預期的適度成本增長，因此您可以在第二季的預訂率中看到這一點。

And I would say we've taken a cautious approach on our booking rate at this point as we normally do at the beginning of the program. And as we perform and achieve more percentage -- performance milestones over the course of the program, we would expect that booking rate to improve.

我想說的是，我們目前對預訂率採取了謹慎的態度，就像我們在計劃開始時通常所做的那樣。隨著我們在計劃過程中執行並實現更多百分比的績效里程碑，我們預計預訂率將會提高。

Thank you. Doug Harned, Bernstein.

謝謝。道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning. Thank you. Kathy, when you talked -- you had a really big quarter this year for bookings after -- last quarter was pretty soft. And you're looking at being above 1.0 for the year. How should we think about the outlook this year in terms of bookings?

早安.謝謝。凱西，當你談到時，今年的預訂量非常大，上個季度相當疲軟。您預計今年的得分將高於 1.0。我們該如何看待今年的預訂前景？

And I'd say in two dimensions. One is growth, US versus international. And then second, which segments are we looking at where you expect to see that over the -- see some good growth over the next two quarters?

我想說的是二維的。一是成長，美國與國際的成長。其次，我們正在關注哪些細分市場，您預計在未來兩個季度會看到一些良好的成長？

Yes. So as Dave said, we are now expecting book-to-bill in the year over 1 after a very strong second quarter. We do see lumpiness in awards, as we've talked about before. But it consistently has been performing on an annual basis with book-to-bill over 1.

是的。正如戴夫所說，在經歷了非常強勁的第二季度之後，我們現在預計今年的訂單出貨量將超過 1 年。正如我們之前討論過的，我們確實看到了獎項的不穩定。但它的年度表現始終保持在 1 以上。

And this year, it is again expected to be reflecting our mix of domestic versus international sales. Because awards are going to be strong in both categories, with international bookings being stronger this year than they have been in the past and domestic bookings remaining strong.

今年，預計將再次反映我們的國內銷售與國際銷售的組合。因為這兩個類別的獎項都將很強勁，今年的國際預訂量將比過去強勁，而國內預訂量也將保持強勁。

In terms of the segments that are going to drive that, we've seen it shift more to our shorter-cycle businesses. So the strong bookings are more concentrated now in our new defense systems and in mission systems than they are in AS and space.

就將推動這一趨勢的細分市場而言，我們已經看到它更多地轉向我們的週期較短的業務。因此，現在的大量預訂更集中在我們的新防禦系統和任務系統中，而不是AS和太空中。

But of course, I'll point that in both those segments, we've had strong -- they've been the key driver of strong bookings in the past. And so they still have a really solid backlog.

但當然，我要指出的是，在這兩個細分市場中，我們都表現強勁——它們是過去預訂量強勁的關鍵驅動力。所以他們仍然有大量的積壓訂單。

Yeah. I guess part of what I was getting at is if you're looking at -- we're looking at still unfortunately fairly flat budgets in the US, but a lot of growth outside. Should we expect to see over the next couple of years any kind of a shift in mix with a higher percentage of international sales?

是的。我想我想表達的部分內容是，如果你看到的是——不幸的是，我們看到美國的預算仍然相當持平，但國外卻有很大的增長。我們是否應該期望在未來幾年看到國際銷售比例更高的組合變化？

I would say we are seeing more international sales, and we are expecting our international sales to grow at a faster rate than our domestic. But also, when you look at bookings and the strength of our alignment with the National Defense Strategy and the prioritization, particularly of the triad, and the growth that we expect on all three of the programs as they move through development and into production, we do believe that they will be well supported in the budget.

我想說的是，我們看到了更多的國際銷售，我們預計我們的國際銷售將以比國內銷售更快的速度成長。而且，當您查看預訂量以及我們與國防戰略和優先順序（特別是三位一體）的一致性的強度，以及我們預期所有三個項目在開發和投入生產過程中的增長時，我們相信他們會在預算中得到很好的支持。

And we'll see them take more share of the budget overall. Even though each one of them is well below 1% of the overall DoD budget, they are well prioritized within the spending profile.

我們將看到他們在總體預算中佔據更多份額。儘管每一項都遠低於國防部總體預算的 1%，但它們在支出情況中都得到了優先考慮。

Thank you. Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

謝謝。邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning. Just had a quick follow-up question for you, Kathy. In your remarks earlier in the prepared remarks, you talked about high single-digit percentage of revenue on the Sentinel and B-21 and staying consistent with that over the next several years. And I guess I was expecting that the B-21 would trip into double digits within that time period, understanding that Sentinel might have a smoother or slower growth rate. Is that correct or incorrect in this assessment?

謝謝。早安.凱西，我想問你一個快速的後續問題。在您之前準備好的演講中，您談到了 Sentinel 和 B-21 的高個位數收入百分比，並在未來幾年保持這一水平。我想我預計 B-21 會在這段時間內達到兩位數，因為我知道 Sentinel 的成長率可能會更平穩或更慢。這個評估是正確的還是錯誤的？

No. And it's why we included it to clarify that even though you see budget profile from the department that show growth, that includes things that aren't on our contract as the government needs to staff up to be able to test, to be able to support, to be able to build a sustainment to organization, to house the aircraft as we deliver them. So there are a lot of things in that budget beyond our contract value.

不。交付飛機時提供支援、建立組織保障、安置飛機。所以預算中有很多東西超出了我們的合約價值。

And with the dynamics that I described, with EMD moving toward completion over these next handful of years and meeting IOC on the program, with the production meeting its quantity level and then starting to flatten off, and with modernization and sustainment coming online, that whole mix keeps us generally in that high single-digit range, especially as the rest of the portfolio grows as well.

根據我所描述的動態，隨著 EMD 在接下來的幾年內逐步完成並與 IOC 就該計劃進行會面，隨著生產達到其數量水平，然後開始趨於平緩，隨著現代化和維護的上線，整個組合使我們整體保持在較高的個位數範圍內，特別是在投資組合的其他部分也在成長的情況下。

Okay. Very good. And then the space booking -- excuse me, space performance in the quarter, it sounded from your tone that it had improved. Are we now back to positive EACs or are we just less negative EACs that we're seeing?

好的。非常好。然後是空間預訂——對不起，本季的空間表現，從你的語氣來看，它有所改善。我們現在是回到正的 EAC 還是只是我們所看到的負 EAC 有所減少？

I can take that one. The EACs for Q2 for space were less negative than the last couple of quarters. Clear improvement there. In performance in the business, still a few small negative items.

我可以接受那個。第二季太空產業的 EAC 負值比過去幾季小。那裡有明顯的改善。在業務表現方面，仍存在一些小的負面項目。

But clearly, as you saw from the year-over-year booking -- or margin rate improvement and the overall margin rate that we're now expecting for the full year in space, there's been demonstrable progress there really related to the actions we've been taking for the last year to improve program performance, deliver cost efficiencies, deliver affordability for customers as we do it. So certainly a good news part of the story there.

但顯然，正如您從同比預訂中看到的那樣，或者說利潤率改善以及我們現在預計的全年太空總體利潤率，我們已經取得了明顯的進展，這確實與我們的行動有關。在努力提升專案績效、提高成本效率、為客戶提供負擔能力。所以這無疑是個好消息。

Thank you. Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.

謝謝。馬特·埃克斯，富國銀行。

Yeah. Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. Can you comment on the Navy new fire, the FXX, just what you're hearing on timing there and if you're still planning to bid on that program?

是的。嗨，早安。謝謝你的提問。您能否對海軍的新火 FXX 發表評論，您所聽到的時間安排以及您是否仍計劃競標該項目？

Yes. We have not received any updates that would suggest the Navy is changing their approach. They are in competition now for selection to occur next year. And in terms of our overall collection of opportunities, we continue to believe that the Department of Defense will move forward with sixth generation platforms.

是的。我們還沒有收到任何表明海軍正在改變其方法的最新消息。他們現在正在競爭明年的選拔。就我們整體收集的機會而言，我們仍然相信國防部將推進第六代平台。

The timing is a bit influx on many of them as they sort out budget priorities. But we are confident that we're well positioned when and if they do move forward.

他們中的許多人在整理預算優先事項時，時機都有點湧入。但我們相信，當他們確實向前邁進時，我們就處於有利位置。

Great. Thanks. And if I could do a follow-up. I guess Spirit AeroSystems is a supplier on B-21. Any thoughts around the acquisition there with Boeing and if there's a chance you would bring that work kind of in house?

偉大的。謝謝。如果我可以跟進的話。我猜 Spirit AeroSystems 是 B-21 的供應商。關於與波音公司的收購有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. I'm not going to comment on specific discussions that we've been having with Spirit. But generally, we acknowledge that they are a key supplier. And we have agreements in place with them that we would any owner of the company to adhere to as we move forward.

是的。我不會評論我們與 Spirit 進行的具體討論。但總的來說，我們承認他們是主要供應商。我們與他們簽訂了協議，我們希望公司的任何所有者在我們前進的過程中遵守這些協議。

Thank you. Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

謝謝。 Pete Skibitski，Alembic Global。

Yeah. Good morning, guys. Kathy, I think it was on the last call, you talked about an increasing amount of Triton export opportunities. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of timing for when those might get signed off on and maybe sized, some of the opportunities?

是的。早上好傢伙。凱西，我想在最後一次通話中，您談到了 Triton 出口機會的增加。我想知道您是否能給我們一些時間安排，讓我們了解這些機會的簽署時間和規模？

Yeah. So we are excited that both NATO and Norway have expressed interest in Triton, and we are hopeful that announcements will be coming shortly on both. And as we look to build Triton for the US and Australia, this simply adds to the production line outlook for Triton through the decade.

是的。因此，我們很高興北約和挪威都表達了對海衛一的興趣，我們希望很快就會發布有關這兩個消息的公告。當我們希望為美國和澳洲建造 Triton 時，這只會增加 Triton 十年來的生產線前景。

And so we had envisioned this day coming, where more countries would get the opportunity to see Triton, once it was fielded, has a tremendous ability to surveil large areas of ocean. You can think of the relevance to that in the Pacific, which is what was attractive to Australia and the US Navy. But of course, in the Arctic, this is an area of great importance as well, which is driving to NATO and the Norwegian interest.

因此，我們預見到這一天的到來，更多的國家將有機會看到 Triton 一旦部署，就擁有監視大片海洋的巨大能力。你可以想想與太平洋地區的相關性，這對澳洲和美國海軍有吸引力。當然，在北極，這也是一個非常重要的地區，這引起了北約和挪威的興趣。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you. Robert Spingarn, Melius Research.

謝謝。羅伯特‧斯賓加恩 (Robert Spingarn)，Melius 研究中心。

It's Scott Mikus on for Rob Spingarn. Kathy, I wanted to ask about the Sentinel program. It had an 81% increase in cost, but the DoD's Cape office said that their confidence interval on that estimate was only about 50%. So if the estimates end up being higher or lower, can you talk about opportunities where you think you can lower the cost of the program?

斯科特·米庫斯 (Scott Mikus) 替補羅布·斯賓加恩 (Rob Spingarn)。凱西，我想問哨兵計畫。它的成本增加了 81%，但國防部開普敦辦事處表示，他們對該估計的置信區間僅為 50% 左右。因此，如果估算最終更高或更低，您能否談談您認為可以降低該計劃成本的機會？

And then as a follow-up, although nuclear modernization is a high priority, budgets aren't unlimited. So how concerned are you that cost growth in Sentinel could result in it being truncated or potentially B-21 end up being a bill payer with the Air Force's budget?

作為後續行動，儘管核子現代化是重中之重，但預算並不是無限的。那麼，您是否擔心「哨兵」的成本增長可能會導致其被削減，或者 B-21 最終可能成為空軍預算的帳單支付者？

Yeah. A couple of things to frame for you in answering those questions. The first is a reminder that the cost growth that is projected is indeed that, a projection over a very long period of time. It covers not just the work that we're doing right now to design, develop, and test, which will largely be through the remainder of this decade.

是的。在回答這些問題時需要考慮一些事情。首先是提醒人們，預期的成本成長確實是一個很長一段時間的預測。它不僅涵蓋我們現在正在做的設計、開發和測試工作，這些工作將在本十年的剩餘時間內完成。

The majority of those cost growth projections come for the fielding, building out the missile silos for the system, 450 of them. And that doesn't happen really until the next decade. So that's why there's so much uncertainty. It's like any of us sitting here and trying to project what costs might look like 10 to 15 years from now, and that's what's baked into those estimates.

這些成本增長預測大部分來自部署，為系統建造 450 個飛彈發射井。而這要到下一個十年才會真正發生。這就是為什麼存在如此多的不確定性。這就像我們任何人坐在這裡，試圖預測 10 到 15 年後的成本可能會是什麼樣子，而這就是這些估算中包含的內容。

The second part of your question is around the 80% growth. Being so much of that is well into the future, there are still decisions that the Air Force can make today that can drive solutions that reduce that cost projection. And that is what they're doing in the restructuring, looking at those options. And we are partnering with them to do that. And we are committed help them do that.

你問題的第二部分是關於 80% 的成長。由於其中大部分都是未來的事情，空軍今天仍然可以做出一些決定，這些決定可以推動降低成本預測的解決方案。這就是他們在重組中所做的事情，研究這些選擇。我們正在與他們合作來做到這一點。我們致力於幫助他們做到這一點。

And of course, on many of Northrop Grumman's program, we are performing well below the government's independent cost estimates, which is what these are. These are not industry's estimates. These are the government cost estimates. And this is not growth on the current contract; this is projections of future growth.

當然，在諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的許多專案中，我們的表現遠低於政府的獨立成本估算，而這正是政府的獨立成本估算。這些不是業界的估計。這些都是政府的成本估算。這並不是當前合約的成長；而是成長。這是對未來成長的預測。

So with all of that in mind, there is time here to work through a number of factors to determine what the actual cost growth would be and how that gets incorporated into future year defense programs. But it is not expected to have a significant impact in the next five years, and the Air Force has made that clear.

因此，考慮到所有這些，現在有時間研究許多因素，以確定實際成本增長是多少，以及如何將其納入未來一年的國防計劃。但預計它不會在未來五年內產生重大影響，空軍已經明確表示了這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Of course.

當然。

Thank you. Peter Arment, Baird.

謝謝。彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Kathy and Dave.

是的，謝謝。早上好，凱西和戴夫。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for all the incremental details on B-21.Super helpful. Just Dave, quickly on working capital, just dynamics going forward here and then how we're thinking about that as it rolls into '25 just given all the growth that you guys are enjoying. Thanks.

感謝您提供有關 B-21 的所有增量詳細資訊。戴夫，請快速談一下營運資金，以及這裡未來的動態，然後考慮到你們所享受的所有增長，我們在進入 25 年時如何考慮這一點。謝謝。

Sure. Clearly, a really strong Q2 for free cash flow performance, working capital very much an integral part of that. I think it's a good opportunity to take a step back then and look at the rest of this year and beyond and what's factored into our multi-year outlook and our guidance for this year.

當然。顯然，第二季的自由現金流表現非常強勁，營運資本是其中不可或缺的一部分。我認為這是一個很好的機會，讓我們回顧一下今年剩餘時間及以後的情況，以及我們的多年展望和今年的指導因素。

And for working capital, the answer is essentially that our expectations are pretty flat; that we're already performing at a very high level, very strong level, for working capital; and that we're not anticipating additional efficiencies, nor are we anticipating erosion to those levels.

對於營運資本來說，答案本質上是我們的預期相當平淡；我們的營運資金已經處於非常高水準、非常強的水準；我們預期效率不會提高，也不預期效率會下降到這些水準。

So when we talk about a 15%-plus free cash flow CAGR from 2023 to 2026, that is not driven by further working capital efficiencies. It's driven by the expansion of operating profits as we continue to grow the top line and we deliver on margin expansion opportunities.

因此，當我們談論 2023 年至 2026 年自由現金流複合年增長率超過 15% 時，這並不是由進一步的營運資本效率所推動的。這是由營業利潤擴張所推動的，因為我們不斷增加收入並提供利潤擴張機會。

CapEx is at peak levels this year as it was last. That will decline going forward, both in real dollars and clearly as a percentage of sales toward our longer-term target in the 3% range. And then we should see modestly stronger CAS pension recoveries as we showed in our latest projections earlier this year based on the actuarial environment today.

今年的資本支出與去年一樣處於最高水準。未來這一數字將會下降，無論是以實際美元計算，還是佔銷售額的百分比，以實現我們 3% 範圍內的長期目標。然後，我們應該會看到 CAS 退休金復甦略有加強，正如我們在今年早些時候根據今天的精算環境做出的最新預測中所顯示的那樣。

And then the Section 174 impact on cash taxes will continue to decline each year. So that combination of factors is what leads to the 15%-plus free cash flow growth in our outlook. And working capital is essentially a flat element of that outlook.

然後，第 174 條對現金稅的影響將逐年持續下降。因此，這些因素的結合導致我們的自由現金流成長超過 15%。營運資本本質上是該前景的一個扁平要素。

Appreciate the detail. Thanks.

欣賞細節。謝謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Josh, we have time for one more question.

喬希，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Thank you. David Strauss, Barclays.

謝謝。大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks. Appreciate squeezing me in. And I appreciate all the additional color on B-21, very helpful. Kathy, can you -- you've talked about the company eventually getting back to this 12% margin range. Today, you're at 11%. You talked about B-21 today not really being much of a headwind as we think about margins going forward. Can you talk about that progression back to 12%, how you see that playing out over the next couple of years?

謝謝。感謝你把我擠進去。凱西，你能——你談到公司最終會回到 12% 的利潤範圍。今天，您的比例為 11%。你今天談到 B-21 在我們考慮未來利潤時並不是真正的逆風。您能談談回到 12% 的進展嗎？

Sure. So we've talked about several factors. The first is getting the macroeconomic headwinds behind us related to inflation, flowing through our contracts the disruption and challenges that we've had with supply chain deliveries. And those are largely getting behind us, although we do still have some contracts where that is flowing through and we're seeing those impacts, as we talked about in mission systems today.

當然。我們討論了幾個因素。首先是擺脫與通貨膨脹相關的宏觀經濟逆風，透過我們的合約傳遞我們在供應鏈交付方面遇到的干擾和挑戰。這些在很大程度上已經被我們拋在了身後，儘管我們仍然有一些合約正在流通，並且我們正在看到這些影響，正如我們今天在任務系統中談到的那樣。

But as those headwinds dissipate, then it really is about the strength of the portfolio shining through in the operating results. And you're starting to see that take hold.

但隨著這些不利因素消散，投資組合的實力就真正體現在經營績效上。你開始看到這種情況正在發生。

What I would say is that from a cost efficiency standpoint, the team is making sure that the business is sized appropriately and everything from human capital to facilities to our infrastructure. We also are investing in digital enablement, as you know, which is a tailwind to program performance, as we've demonstrated on B-21 with our ability to adhere to modeling that predicts future performance and then hit that performance in the product. That is derisking our programs and driving improved margin opportunity.

我想說的是，從成本效率的角度來看，團隊正在確保業務規模適當，以及從人力資本到設施再到我們的基礎設施的一切。如您所知，我們還投資於數位化支持，這是程式性能的推動力，正如我們在B-21 上所展示的那樣，我們有能力堅持預測未來性能的建模，然後在產品中達到該性能。這降低了我們計劃的風險，並推動了利潤率改善的機會。

And then some more structural items like the mix shift that we spoke about on the call, our cost (inaudible) business, which we've had a heavy concentration up here in these last few years, including programs like Sentinel with lower booking rates, which will, over time, move towards fixed price and more profitable programs. And then, of course, international, which is a portfolio tailwind, as more of our business comes from international forces.

然後是一些更多的結構性項目，例如我們在電話中談到的混合轉變，我們的成本（聽不清）業務，過去幾年我們在這裡重點關注，包括預訂率較低的 Sentinel 等項目，隨著時間的推移，這將轉向固定價格和更有利可圖的計劃。當然，還有國際化，這是投資組合的順風車，因為我們的業務更多來自國際力量。

So it's that full combination of paths that we are working. We're showing progress on each as we move forward, and it bolsters our confidence that we can drive this business to another 100 basis points of margin performance over the decade.

所以我們正在努力將這些路徑完全結合。隨著我們的前進，我們在每一項上都取得了進展，這增強了我們的信心，我們可以在十年內推動這項業務的利潤率再提高 100 個基點。

Thanks. As we sit here today, would you expect margins to tick up next year off of the 11% level?

謝謝。當我們今天坐在這裡時，您是否預計明年的利潤率會比 11% 的水平上升？

I would.

我會。

Thanks. Appreciate it.

謝謝。欣賞它。

Thank you. All right. So with that, I'd like to conclude by once again thanking our team for a fantastic quarter. And in particular, I want to recognize Mark Taylor, who is retiring from our company tomorrow after a distinguished Northrop Grumman career and over a decade on our executive leadership team.

謝謝。好的。因此，最後我想再次感謝我們的團隊度過了一個精彩的季度。我特別要感謝馬克·泰勒(Mark Taylor)，他在諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司(Northrop Grumman) 有著傑出的職業生涯，並在我們的執行領導團隊工作了十多年，他將於明天從我們公司退休。

And also, I want to note that in the coming months, Dave, Todd, and I look forward to introducing Ken Cruse, who is here with us in the room, to our investor community as our incoming CFO effective October 1. So in the meantime, we look forward to talking with you in October and seeing you over the course of the summer. And thanks again for joining our call today.

另外，我想指出的是，在接下來的幾個月裡，戴夫、托德和我期待向我們的投資者群體介紹肯·克魯斯（Ken Cruse），他是我們即將上任的首席財務官，將於10 月1 日生效。再次感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。