諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third quarter 2024 conference call.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第三季電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today.

我叫喬什，今天我將成為您的接線生。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我想將電話轉給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Todd Ernst 先生。

Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third quarter 2024 conference call.

謝謝喬什，大家早上好，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2024 年第三季電話會議。

Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2024 and beyond reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call.

在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議討論的事項，包括 2024 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可獲得的信息做出的判斷。

They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性聲明。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。

These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司實際業績出現重大差異。

Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release.

今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益發布中的 GAAP 業績一致的非 GAAP 財務指標。

Third-quarter results reflect the realignment of the SDS division from Space Systems to Defense Systems.

第三季業績反映了 SDS 部門從太空系統到國防系統的重組。

In addition, we will refer to a presentation that is posted on our Investor Relations website.

此外，我們將參考發佈在我們投資者關係網站上的簡報。

On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; Dave Keffer, our CFO, through September 30th; and Ken Crews, our CFO as of the 1st of this month.

今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁凱西沃登 (Kathy Warden)； Dave Keffer，我們的財務官，任期至 9 月 30 日；以及本月 1 日起擔任我們財務長的 Ken Crews。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy.

這時，我想把電話轉給凱西。

Kathy?

凱西？

Thanks, Todd.

謝謝，托德。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。

We delivered strong operating performance again in the third quarter, building on the momentum we achieved through the first half of the year.

在上半年取得的勢頭的基礎上，我們在第三季度再次實現了強勁的經營業績。

Global events continue to highlight the need for advanced capabilities to defend and deter against increasingly complex threats.

全球事件持續凸顯需要先進的能力來防禦和威懾日益複雜的威脅。

This is driving the demand for our differentiated portfolio and is evident in our results.

這推動了對我們差異化產品組合的需求，並在我們的業績中得到了體現。

In the third quarter, our book-to-bill was once again very strong, which drove backlog to a new record level.

第三季度，我們的訂單出貨量再次非常強勁，這將積壓訂單推向了新的紀錄水平。

Our backlog is now $85 billion, which is more than two times our annual revenue, supporting our confidence in the future growth of this business.

目前，我們的積壓訂單已達 850 億美元，是我們年收入的兩倍多，這支撐了我們對該業務未來成長的信心。

Revenue has increased 6% year-to-date, and we are on track to achieve our full-year guidance of 5% growth.

今年迄今為止，收入成長了 6%，我們有望實現 5% 的全年成長目標。

The Northrop Grumman team continues to deliver critical capabilities for our customers, remain disciplined in new business pursuits, and drive cost efficiencies in our operations resulting in this strong performance.

諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊繼續為我們的客戶提供關鍵能力，在新業務追求中保持紀律，並提高我們營運的成本效率，從而實現強勁的業績。

Segment operating margins significantly increased both sequentially and year-over-year to 11.5% this quarter, our highest margin rate in over two years.

本季度，該部門的營業利潤率環比和同比均大幅增長，達到 11.5%，這是我們兩年多來的最高利潤率。

Solid sales volume and strong operating performance drove earnings per share of $7.00 in the quarter, an increase of 13% from last year's Q3 results.

穩健的銷售和強勁的營運業績推動本季每股收益達到 7.00 美元，比去年第三季業績成長 13%。

Free cash flow of $730 million was in line with our expectations and continues to provide us the considerable flexibility to deploy capital in support of both growing our business and our shareholder return strategy.

7.3 億美元的自由現金流符合我們的預期，並繼續為我們提供相當大的靈活性來部署資本，以支持我們的業務成長和股東回報策略。

Based on our solid year-to-date results and full-year outlook, we are increasing our EPS guidance range by $0.75. We are pleased with this performance because it's a direct result of the intentional steps we've been taking to realize continued growth and enhanced profitability.

根據我們今年迄今的穩健業績和全年展望，我們將 EPS 指導範圍上調了 0.75 美元。我們對此業績感到滿意，因為這是我們為實現持續成長和提高獲利能力而採取的有意措施的直接結果。

We continue to implement productivity and efficiency initiatives including advanced production capabilities, digital engineering tools and increased automation.

我們持續實施生產力和效率舉措，包括先進的生產能力、數位工程工具和提高自動化程度。

We are streamlining processes, reducing rework, and improving our learning curves as we add scale, resulting in improved program and operating performance.

隨著規模的擴大，我們正在簡化流程、減少返工並改善我們的學習曲線，從而提高計劃和營運績效。

The impact of these initiatives was again evident this quarter at AS, where execution was outstanding.

這些措施的影響在本季在 AS 再次顯現出來，執行力非常出色。

The mature production portion of AS’ portfolio comprises more than half of its overall revenue, and it continues to perform very well.

AS 產品組合的成熟生產部分佔其總收入的一半以上，並且繼續表現出色。

The B-21 program has also made solid progress in achieving ground and flight testing milestones on the development contract and is continuing to execute the aircraft production contract in line with our estimates.

B-21專案在實現開發合約的地面和飛行測試里程碑方面也取得了紮實的進展，並將繼續按照我們的預期執行飛機生產合約。

This is our third quarter in a row of 10% or better margins at AS, due largely to our focus on total cost management and productivity.

這是 AS 利潤率連續第三個季度達到 10% 或更高，這主要歸功於我們對總成本管理和生產力的關注。

Space's performance was also excellent in the quarter.

Space本季的表現也非常出色。

As we expected, revenue was down modestly year-over-year based on the wind down of NGI and a restricted program, but earnings were up substantially.

正如我們預期的那樣，由於 NGI 的逐步結束和限制性計劃，收入同比小幅下降，但收益卻大幅增長。

Strong program performance was the key driver as the team executed well, mitigating risks, and realizing opportunities leading to improved EAC trends in recent quarters.

強勁的計劃績效是關鍵驅動力，因為團隊執行良好，降低了風險，並抓住了導致近幾個季度 EAC 趨勢改善的機會。

Our Defense Systems business continues to see broad-based demand with a book-to-bill of 1.6 times in the quarter, building the foundation for future growth.

我們的國防系統業務繼續滿足廣泛的需求，本季訂單出貨比達到 1.6 倍，為未來成長奠定了基礎。

Margin performance year-to-date is solid and consistent with our full-year outlook.

年初至今的利潤率表現穩健，與我們的全年前景一致。

While the timing of some of our shorter cycle programs affected sales this quarter, looking forward, DS is expected to be one of our fastest-growing segments, with margin expansion opportunities as we realize increased international sales.

雖然我們一些較短週期計劃的時間表影響了本季度的銷售額，但展望未來，DS 預計將成為我們成長最快的細分市場之一，隨著我們實現國際銷售額的增加，我們將有機會擴大利潤率。

Like at DS, we also see continued strong demand at Mission Systems.

與 DS 一樣，我們也看到 Mission Systems 的需求持續強勁。

This segment also had a book-to-bill of 1.6 times in the quarter and robust 7% revenue growth.

該部門本季的訂單出貨比也達到了 1.6 倍，營收強勁成長了 7%。

Mission Systems is a leader in technology that's in high demand from our customers, as reflected in their top-line results.

Mission Systems 是科技領域的領導者，我們的客戶對其需求量很大，這也反映在他們的營收成果中。

And as we've seen this business grow, we've seen mix and productivity pressures, including in supply chain deliveries.

隨著我們看到這項業務的成長，我們也看到了混合和生產力壓力，包括供應鏈交付方面的壓力。

The team is making good progress with the deliberate actions they've been taking to improve program performance and drive cost efficiencies.

該團隊為提高專案績效和提高成本效率而採取的深思熟慮的行動正在取得良好進展。

And I have confidence that we are on track to achieve higher MS margins in 2025.

我相信我們預計在 2025 年實現更高的 MS 利潤率。

As we look forward, we see multiple trends across our portfolio that are supportive of continued margin expansion, including improving macroeconomic conditions, stabilizing supply chains, enhanced workforce productivity, and gradual shifts in our contract mix, as a number of our largest programs transition to production, and we build our international portfolio.

展望未來，我們看到我們的投資組合存在多種趨勢，這些趨勢支持利潤率的持續擴張，包括宏觀經濟狀況的改善、供應鏈的穩定性、勞動力生產力的提高以及我們的合約組合的逐步轉變，因為我們的一些最大的項目過渡到生產，我們建立我們的國際產品組合。

We also expect to see continued strong demand for the platform sensors and systems we provide that allow our customers to deter adversaries and operate in the most demanding threat environment.

我們還期望看到對我們提供的平台感測器和系統的持續強勁需求，這些平台感測器和系統使我們的客戶能夠威懾對手並在最苛刻的威脅環境中運行。

This demand is reflected in U.S. budgets where there's strong bipartisan support for national security priorities.

這種需求反映在美國預算中，兩黨對國家安全優先事項給予了強而有力的支持。

And as a result, we are seeing upward pressure on Defense budgets.

因此，我們看到國防預算面臨上行壓力。

Over the past several months, the Senate Defense Authorization and Appropriations legislation proposed additional funding above the administration's fiscal year 2025 defense budget request.

過去幾個月，參議院國防授權和撥款立法提議在政府 2025 財政年度國防預算請求之上提供額外資金。

And while the legislative process is still playing out, it is encouraging to see strong support for both the budget and our programs.

雖然立法進程仍在進行中，但令人鼓舞的是，預算和我們的計劃都獲得了強有力的支持。

As we look at markets outside the U.S., we continue to expect our international sales to grow faster than the rest of our business over the next several years.

當我們著眼於美國以外的市場時，我們仍然預計未來幾年我們的國際銷售額成長速度將快於我們的其他業務。

There is robust international demand for defense capabilities, particularly in Europe, where most NATO members are increasing defense spending from 2022 levels.

國際上對國防能力的需求強勁，尤其是在歐洲，大多數北約成員國都在 2022 年的基礎上增加國防開支。

This demand is reflected in our international book-to-bill, which was almost two times in the third quarter.

這種需求反映在我們的國際訂單出貨量上，第三季幾乎是兩倍。

While executing on our current programs is an important driver of our profitable growth outlook, we also remain focused on winning new development programs.

雖然執行當前專案是我們獲利成長前景的重要驅動力，但我們仍然專注於贏得新的開發專案。

Our strategy is based on continuing to deliver technical innovations to create competitive advantage for our customers.

我們的策略基於持續提供技術創新，為客戶創造競爭優勢。

A great example of this is our selection by the Missile Defense Agency to develop the Glide Phase Interceptor, or GPI.

一個很好的例子是導彈防禦局選擇我們開發滑翔階段攔截器（GPI）。

This technology will address increasingly sophisticated hypersonic missile threats.

這項技術將應對日益複雜的高超音速飛彈威脅。

In addition, this program is a collaboration between the U.S. and Japan and will further strengthen the alliance with Japan and further NG's partnership with Japanese industry.

此外，該計劃是美國和日本之間的合作，將進一步加強與日本的聯盟，並進一步加強 NG 與日本工業界的夥伴關係。

Putting all of this together, as we look forward to 2025, we expect solid growth and strong performance to continue, based on our record backlog and continued focus on program execution.

綜上所述，展望 2025 年，基於我們創紀錄的積壓訂單和對專案執行的持續關注，我們預計穩健的成長和強勁的業績將繼續下去。

At a company level, we project sales growth between 3% and 4%.

在公司層面，我們預期銷售額將成長在 3% 至 4% 之間。

This includes strong growth in three of our four segments.

這包括我們四個細分市場中的三個的強勁成長。

For Space, we expect a mid-single digit decline due to the wind-down on programs I referred to earlier.

對於太空領域，由於我之前提到的項目逐漸結束，我們預計會出現中個位數的下降。

We continue to expect the company's segment operating margin to improve in 2025 driven by favorable macro trends, program performance, and cost discipline.

我們繼續預計，在有利的宏觀趨勢、專案績效和成本控制的推動下，該公司的部門營業利潤率將在 2025 年有所改善。

Our free cash flow outlook is consistent with our prior long-term forecast, with 2025 increasing greater than 20% year-over-year.

我們的自由現金流前景與我們先前的長期預測一致，2025 年年增超過 20%。

Investing in our growing business remains a priority.

投資我們不斷成長的業務仍然是首要任務。

We are coming through a period of peak CapEx and anticipate a reduced spending level in 2025, but still at a level above historical norms.

我們正在經歷資本支出高峰期，預計 2025 年支出水準會有所下降，但仍高於歷史正常水準。

And given our company's strong free cash flow outlook, we plan to continue our shareholder-friendly capital deployment strategy, returning approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders next year.

鑑於我們公司強勁的自由現金流前景，我們計劃繼續實施有利於股東的資本部署策略，明年將約 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

The dynamic global environment calls for our industry to offer our customers the technology innovations they need to compete.

動態的全球環境要求我們的產業為客戶提供競爭所需的技術創新。

Northrop Grumman continues to invest in the capabilities and capacity needed to deliver that competitive edge for them.

諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司繼續投資於為他們提供競爭優勢所需的能力和能力。

We are also intensely focused on the talent and digital infrastructure that enables our performance and competitive differentiation.

我們也高度關注人才和數位基礎設施，以實現我們的績效和競爭優勢。

Our team is delivering today while also building for our future.

我們的團隊在交付今天的同時也在為我們的未來而建立。

Financially, this is translating into solid results now, a plan to rapidly expand cash flows over the next several years, and a business that is well positioned for profitable growth for the foreseeable future.

在財務上，這正在轉化為堅實的業績，一項在未來幾年內迅速擴大現金流的計劃，以及一項在可預見的未來為實現盈利增長做好準備的業務。

Before turning things over, I'd like to welcome Ken Crews, who became our CFO on October 1st.

在扭轉局面之前，我想先對 Ken Crews 表示歡迎，他於 10 月 1 日就任我們的財務長。

Ken will talk through our forward outlook in just a moment.

肯稍後將介紹我們的未來展望。

But first, I'll turn the call over to Dave for a discussion of our Q3 results.

但首先，我會將電話轉給戴夫，討論我們第三季的業績。

And as I do so, recognizing this will be his last call, I'd like to thank Dave for his leadership and outstanding service to our company.

當我這樣做時，我意識到這將是他的最後一次通話，我要感謝戴夫對我們公司的領導和出色的服務。

Dave, over to you.

戴夫，交給你了。

Thanks, Kathy.

謝謝，凱西。

It's been an incredibly rewarding five years in this role, and I've enjoyed the opportunity to work with you, Ken and the whole Northrop Grumman team.

擔任這個職位的五年是非常有意義的，我很高興有機會與您、肯以及整個諾斯羅普·格魯曼團隊合作。

I'm confident you'll continue to do great things going forward.

我相信您今後將繼續做出偉大的事情。

Now looking at the Q3 results, we continued to experience enduring demand for our capabilities in support of our U.S. and international customers.

現在看看第三季的業績，我們繼續感受到對我們支持美國和國際客戶的能力的持久需求。

As Kathy mentioned, backlog hit a new record of $85 billion, driven by another quarter of strong bookings.

正如 Kathy 所提到的，在又一個季度強勁預訂的推動下，積壓訂單創下了 850 億美元的新紀錄。

Our international awards were particularly strong in Q3 at $2.7 billion, increasing our international backlog to almost $8 billion, the highest level in several years.

我們的國際獎項在第三季尤其強勁，達到 27 億美元，使我們的國際積壓訂單增加到近 80 億美元，這是幾年來的最高水準。

Key awards included additional E-2D aircraft for Japan, ammunition and urgent need capabilities at DS, and radar programs at MS.

主要合約包括為日本提供額外的 E-2D 飛機、DS 的彈藥和緊急需求能力以及 MS 的雷達項目。

We continue to have a wide range of opportunities in our global pipeline that we're optimistic we can convert into bookings and revenue over the coming years.

我們在全球通路中繼續擁有廣泛的機會，我們樂觀地認為，我們可以在未來幾年將這些機會轉化為預訂量和收入。

Turning to sales on slide 4 in our earnings deck, strong momentum from the first half of the year continued in Q3 throughout most of our portfolio.

轉向我們收益表中幻燈片 4 中的銷售情況，我們的大部分投資組合在第三季度繼續保持上半年的強勁勢頭。

Sales increased by 2% in the quarter and are up 6% year-to-date.

本季銷售額成長 2%，年初至今成長 6%。

Q3 sales were slightly below our expectations due to a few delivery timing shifts to Q4, primarily in DS, but those do not impact the full-year outlook.

由於交付時間有一些調整（主要是 DS），第三季的銷售額略低於我們的預期，但這不會影響全年前景。

Starting with Aeronautics, Q3 sales were $2.9 billion, up by 4% compared to the prior year.

從航空業開始，第三季銷售額為 29 億美元，比上年成長 4%。

The increase was driven by higher volume on F-35, E-2, and Triton, partially offset by slightly lower sales on restricted programs.

這一增長是由 F-35、E-2 和 Triton 銷量增加所推動的，但部分被受限項目銷售略有下降所抵消。

At Defense Systems, third quarter sales increased by 2%.

國防系統公司第三季銷售額成長了 2%。

Higher sales on Sentinel and from our weapons portfolio drove the increase.

Sentinel 和我們武器產品組合的銷售增加推動了這一成長。

As I noted, sales would have been even stronger, if not for a shift into Q4 of roughly $150 million of international ammunition sales that are in our backlog.

正如我所指出的，如果沒有進入第四季度，我們積壓的國際彈藥銷售額約為 1.5 億美元，銷售額將會更加強勁。

And on Sentinel, we continue to partner with the Air Force on the restructure of the program, which resulted in adjustments to the timing of certain activities as we refine the latest program schedule.

在「哨兵」計畫上，我們繼續與空軍合作重組該計劃，這導致我們在完善最新計劃時間表時調整了某些活動的時間表。

Mission Systems sales were particularly strong in Q3, up 7% compared to the prior year.

任務系統銷售在第三季尤其強勁，與去年同期相比成長了 7%。

MS saw an increase in sales throughout much of its portfolio, led by higher volume on microelectronics and advanced technology programs.

在微電子和先進技術專案銷售增加的帶動下，微軟大部分產品組合的銷售額均出現成長。

And Space sales were lower by 3%, consistent with our expectations due to a headwind of $224 million in the period, from the wind down of our work on the restricted space and NGI programs.

空間銷售額下降了 3%，與我們的預期一致，因為我們在有限空間和 NGI 專案上的工作結束，導致這段期間出現了 2.24 億美元的逆風。

The remaining Space portfolio grew at mid-single digits, driven by higher sales on SDA satellite programs and other restricted work.

受 SDA 衛星計畫和其他限制性工作銷售額增加的推動，剩餘的太空產品組合以中個位數成長。

Moving to the bottom line, Q3 segment operating income expanded to 11.5%.

轉向淨利潤，第三季部門營業收入擴大至 11.5%。

This performance was enabled by our continued focus on cost efficiencies, risk retirements, and outstanding program performance.

這一業績得益於我們持續關注成本效率、風險消除和出色的計劃績效。

AS operating income grew by 5%, generating an excellent operating margin rate of 10.4% in Q3.

AS 營業收入成長 5%，第三季營業利益率達 10.4%，表現優異。

DS generated solid performance in the period with operating income modestly lower than the prior period.

DS 在此期間取得了穩健的業績，營業收入略低於上一時期。

Its Q3 operating margin rate included fewer net EAC adjustments and a change in contract mix.

第三季的營業利潤率包括較少的淨 EAC 調整和合約組合的變化。

Mission Systems operating income increased 1%, and its margin rate improved from the first half of the year to 13.8%.

Mission Systems營業收入成長1%，利潤率較上半年提升至13.8%。

And Space delivered a great quarter with operating income up 14% and an OM rate of 12%.

Space 季度業績表現出色，營業收入成長 14%，OM 率為 12%。

We continue to see improvements in Space's program performance based on deliberate actions we've taken, and this was reflected in the level of net favorable earnings adjustments in the period.

基於我們採取的深思熟慮的行動，我們繼續看到 Space 的計劃績效有所改善，這反映在該期間的淨有利收益調整水平上。

Turning to slide 6, earnings per share in Q3 increased by 13%, driven by the solid segment performance I described as well as from higher net pension income.

轉向投影片 6，在我所描述的穩健的部門業績以及更高的淨退休金收入的推動下，第三季每股收益成長了 13%。

A lower federal tax rate and strong performance in our marketable securities portfolio also provided an uplift.

較低的聯邦稅率和我們有價證券投資組合的強勁表現也帶來了提振。

Our Q3 tax rate benefited from a net reduction in certain reserves in the period.

我們第三季的稅率受益於該期間某些準備金的淨減少。

Keep in mind, for EPS comparison purposes, that in the third quarter of last year, we recognized a gain of $0.44 per share associated with the sale of a minority investment.

請記住，出於每股收益比較的目的，去年第三季度，我們確認與出售少數股權投資相關的每股收益為 0.44 美元。

Lastly, I'll take a moment to discuss our cash performance.

最後，我將花點時間討論我們的現金表現。

Third quarter free cash flow was $730 million, in line with our expectations.

第三季自由現金流為 7.3 億美元，符合我們的預期。

Year-to-date, we remain ahead of our free cash flow position compared to this time last year, and we expect a strong quarter of cash generation in Q4, consistent with our historical pattern.

今年迄今為止，與去年同期相比，我們的自由現金流狀況仍然領先，我們預計第四季度的現金流將強勁，這與我們的歷史模式一致。

And with that, I'll hand it off to you, Ken.

這樣，我就把它交給你了，肯。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。

I'll spend a few moments on the forward outlook, beginning with our latest segment guidance on slide 7 in our earnings deck.

我將花一些時間來闡述前瞻性展望，首先是我們收益報告中投影片 7 上的最新分部指引。

Aeronautics continues to perform at a high level, and as a result, we are increasing both its margin and sales rate guidance.

航空業繼續保持高水準表現，因此，我們正在提高其利潤率和銷售率指導。

We now expect sales of roughly $12 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 11%.

我們目前預計銷售額約 120 億美元，年增 11%。

With another quarter of strong operating performance, we are increasing its operating margin rate guidance to approximately 10%.

隨著又一個季度的強勁營運業績，我們將其營運利潤率指引提高至 10% 左右。

This increase reflects our confidence in this business to generate healthy margins even as B-21 scales.

這一成長反映了我們對這項業務即使在 B-21 規模擴大的情況下也能產生健康利潤的信心。

At DS, we are modestly lowering our sales guidance to the high $8 billion range, reflecting a mid-single digit year-over-year growth rate.

在 DS，我們將銷售指導小幅下調至 80 億美元的高位，反映出中個位數的年成長率。

This update reflects our latest expectations for lower Sentinel volume this year, driven by timing connected with the program's restructure, and we are increasing our margin rate guidance at Space to the mid-to-high 10% range, while updating our expectations for margin rate at MS to high 13%.

此次更新反映了我們對今年Sentinel 交易量下降的最新預期，這是由於與該計劃重組相關的時間安排所致，我們正在將Space 的保證金率指引提高至10% 的中高範圍，同時更新我們對保證金率的預期MS 高達 13%。

Moving to company level guidance, we are reaffirming our full year sales guidance.

轉向公司層面的指導，我們重申全年銷售指導。

At the midpoint of the range, this represents a sequential increase in sales to roughly $10.9 billion in quarter four, similar to the ramp we experienced during the fourth quarter of 2023.

在該範圍的中點，這代表第四季銷售額連續成長至約 109 億美元，類似於我們在 2023 年第四季所經歷的成長。

Fourth quarter sales will be driven by higher volume on the LRIP phase of B-21, international ammo deliveries at DS, and multiple production programs at MS.

第四季的銷售將由 B-21 LRIP 階段的銷售增加、DS 的國際彈藥交付以及 MS 的多個生產項目推動。

Based on our successful execution of cost savings initiatives and our strong program performance, we are increasing the lower end of our segment operating income range.

基於我們成功執行成本節約計畫和強勁的計畫績效，我們正在提高部門營業收入範圍的下限。

Q4 margins at MS and DS are expected to improve sequentially due to production mix and deliveries, while AS and Space margins are expected to be lower sequentially due to mix and lower expected net earnings adjustments.

由於生產組合和交付，MS 和 DS 第四季度的利潤率預計將連續改善，而 AS 和 Space 的利潤率預計將因產品組合和較低的預期淨利潤調整而連續下降。

Altogether, our latest guidance continues to reflect a full-year segment OM rate of 11% at the midpoint.

總而言之，我們的最新指引繼續反映出全年細分市場 OM 率為 11% 的中點。

We are reaffirming our guidance range for free cash flow that projects greater than 15% growth at the midpoint.

我們重申自由現金流的指導範圍，預計中點成長率將超過 15%。

We remain confident in our ability to generate strong and predictable cash flows.

我們對產生強勁且可預測現金流的能力仍然充滿信心。

Year-to-date, we've returned $3 billion of cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, and we continue to expect $2.5 billion in repurchases for the full year.

年初至今，我們已透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 30 億美元現金，預計全年回購金額將達到 25 億美元。

Lastly, we are again increasing our earnings per share expectations, now to a range of $25.65 to $26.05, up by $0.75. This updated range reflects our confidence in continued strong segment performance, lower corporate unallocated costs, lower interest expense and a more favorable tax rate.

最後，我們再次上調每股收益預期，目前至 25.65 美元至 26.05 美元之間，上調 0.75 美元。這項更新的範圍反映了我們對持續強勁的細分市場業績、較低的企業未分配成本、較低的利息支出和更優惠的稅率的信心。

Next, I wanted to take a moment to talk about pension income.

接下來我想花點時間談談退休金收入。

Our pension plans remain in great shape with a funded status over 100% and minimal cash contributions projected over the next several years.

我們的退休金計畫仍保持良好狀態，資金到位率超過 100%，預計未來幾年的現金繳款額將降至最低。

Our funded status drives affordability for our customers and helps support strong capital returns to our shareholders.

我們的資金狀況提高了客戶的負擔能力，並有助於為股東提供豐厚的資本回報。

As we've done the last few years, we provided a net pension income sensitivity table for the upcoming year in our earnings deck.

正如我們過去幾年所做的那樣，我們在損益表中提供了來年的淨退休金收入敏感度表。

Through September 30th, asset returns have been in the low 7% range and discount rates were down modestly.

截至 9 月 30 日，資產回報率一直處於 7% 的低水平，貼現率小幅下降。

So as we sit here today, there is no change to our 2025 net pension income expectations that we shared in January.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們 1 月分享的 2025 年退休金淨收入預期沒有變化。

As we look forward to 2025, we remain confident in our business strategy.

展望2025年，我們對我們的業務策略仍然充滿信心。

As Kathy outlined, and as shown on slide 10, we expect another year of solid growth, continued margin expansion and a lower level of capital expenditures.

正如 Kathy 概述和幻燈片 10 所示，我們預計又一年將實現穩健成長、持續利潤率擴張和較低水準的資本支出。

This combination, along with lower R&D cash taxes and higher CAS recoveries, produces a recipe to rapidly grow our cash flows.

這種結合，加上較低的研發現金稅和較高的 CAS 回收率，為我們的現金流量快速成長創造了條件。

At the midpoint, we expect free cash flow growth of over 20% next year.

我們預計明年自由現金流成長將超過 20%。

And with our capital deployment strategy of investing in our business for profitable growth and returning cash to shareholders, free cash flow per share is growing even faster.

透過我們投資業務以實現獲利成長並向股東返還現金的資本部署策略，每股自由現金流成長得更快。

Also, our 2025 outlook assumes that macro conditions will remain stable and the continuing resolution will have a similar duration to those of recent years.

此外，我們的 2025 年展望假設宏觀條件將保持穩定，持續解決方案的持續時間將與近年來相似。

In closing, I believe our strategy will continue to create value for our customers and shareholders, and I'm confident about the opportunities we have ahead.

最後，我相信我們的策略將繼續為我們的客戶和股東創造價值，並且我對我們未來的機會充滿信心。

I look forward to engaging further with the investment community over the coming quarters.

我期待在未來幾季與投資界進一步接觸。

I also wanted to take a moment to thank Dave for his leadership and contributions to our company and for support during this transition.

我也想花點時間感謝 Dave 的領導和對我們公司的貢獻以及在此過渡期間的支持。

With that, let's open the call for your questions.

接下來，讓我們開始詢問您的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）Robert Stallard，垂直研究。

Best of luck, Dave, with your next ventures.

祝你好運，戴夫，你的下一次冒險。

A couple of contract or program questions for you, Kathy.

凱西，有幾個合約或計劃問題要問你。

First of all, on Sentinel, it looks like the timetable here is moving around a bit, but I was wondering if there was any financial or practical implications as a result of this schedule change?

首先，在 Sentinel 上，這裡的時間表似乎有所變動，但我想知道此時間表變更是否會產生任何財務或實際影響？

And then secondly, on the program you won in the quarter, GPI, I was wondering -- I mean, it might be classified, I was wondering if you could give us a bit more detail of the contract structure for this program and how the revenues are likely to progress from here?

其次，關於您在本季度贏得的項目，GPI，我想知道 - 我的意思是，它可能會被分類，我想知道您是否能為我們提供有關該項目的合同結構的更多詳細信息以及如何收入可能會從這裡開始成長嗎？

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

Let me start with Sentinel.

讓我從哨兵開始。

As we noted in the call, both this quarter and last, we had incorporated into our outlook for the program the changes that will result from the Nunn-McCurdy review and the restructure process that the Air Force is going through.

正如我們在本季度和上一季的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們已將該計劃的前景納入了納恩-麥科迪審查和空軍正在經歷的重組過程所帶來的變化。

That restructure process has started.

重組過程已經開始。

It has not concluded.

事情還沒結束。

We expect it to continue well into next year.

我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。

And yet we have looked at what we believe is most likely to happen, as we do on any of our programs and incorporated that into our estimates.

然而，正如我們對任何計劃所做的那樣，我們已經研究了我們認為最有可能發生的情況，並將其納入我們的估計中。

And so that is the smoothing of sales that you heard us talk about in this call resulted from our view of what the ramp will look like as we move into 2025.

因此，這就是您在本次電話會議中聽到我們談論的銷售平穩化的結果，這是我們對進入 2025 年增長情況的看法的結果。

And we do still expect the program to grow year-over-year from '24 into '25, just as it did '24 over '23.

我們仍然預計該計劃從 24 年到 25 年將逐年增長，就像 24 年到 23 年一樣。

So a similar profile, just moved out a bit over a longer period of time.

因此，類似的個人資料只是在較長一段時間內移出了一點。

On GPI, there, we're very pleased to be supporting the Missile Defense Agency in this area to build an interceptor that will defeat hypersonic missile threats.

在 GPI 上，我們非常高興能夠支援該領域的飛彈防禦局建造攔截器，以擊敗高超音速飛彈威脅。

And you know this is a very important area for national security to be able to defend against these threats as they evolve.

你知道，對於國家安全來說，這是一個非常重要的領域，能夠抵禦這些不斷演變的威脅。

We are starting with a piece of work that will continue what we had been doing around risk reduction and design and move to a more mature design in this next phase, getting us eventually to a preliminary design review.

我們正在開始一項工作，該工作將繼續我們圍繞降低風險和設計所做的工作，並在下一階段轉向更成熟的設計，最終使我們進行初步設計審查。

And then after that, we will move to the next phase of the program.

之後，我們將進入該計劃的下一階段。

So it is an incremental funding approach, but this down-select was important because it signifies that Missile Defense Agency likes our design and wants to continue in the development process with us.

因此，這是一種增量資助方法，但這種向下選擇很重要，因為它表明導彈防禦局喜歡我們的設計，並希望與我們一起繼續開發過程。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

羅納德·愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Kathy, broadly, given the demand you're seeing across the businesses and the growth that you're going to have, what are you seeing in the supply chain?

凱西，總的來說，考慮到您在各個業務中看到的需求以及您將要實現的成長，您在供應鏈中看到了什麼？

Are there tight points right now?

現在有緊要的地方嗎？

Are there places that you're worried about?

有你擔心的地方嗎？

We’ve heard broadly from companies across the sector that there are still supply chain issues.

我們從整個行業的公司廣泛了解到，供應鏈問題仍然存在。

How are you managing it?

你是如何管理的？

And what areas are you worried about and working on?

您擔心並致力於哪些領域？

Yes, Ron, we still see supply chain challenges mostly with capacity and productivity.

是的，羅恩，我們仍然看到供應鏈面臨的挑戰主要來自產能和生產力。

And let me unpack that a bit.

讓我稍微解開一下。

They aren't concentrated in any one area of the business.

他們並不集中於業務的任何一個領域。

They're broad-based and they tend now to be more supplier dependent.

它們基礎廣泛，現在往往更加依賴供應商。

And so we are working with individual suppliers to help them address their particular challenges.

因此，我們正在與各個供應商合作，幫助他們應對特定的挑戰。

It spans from microelectronics to our solid rocket motor business supply chain as they try to ramp to the increased capacity that we are all asking of them.

它涵蓋從微電子到我們的固體火箭發動機業務供應鏈，因為他們試圖提高我們都要求他們增加的產能。

It includes even some of our space and aerostructure partners in Space and AS, respectively.

其中甚至包括我們分別在太空和航空領域的一些航太和航空結構合作夥伴。

And so each of our teams across the segments have their top list of suppliers that they're working with.

因此，我們各個細分市場的每個團隊都有他們正在合作的頂級供應商名單。

We do extensive monitoring of our supply chain so that we can hopefully see these issues coming.

我們對我們的供應鏈進行廣泛的監控，以便我們能夠看到這些問題的出現​​。

And then as soon as we do, engage with the supplier to provide support.

然後，我們一旦這樣做，就會與供應商聯繫以提供支援。

I don't expect that we will see all of these issues mitigated this year.

我預計今年所有這些問題都不會得到緩解。

It's improving, and in many places stabilizing, but we are carrying risk and certainly some plans into 2025 to continue to monitor and work with our suppliers.

它正在改善，並且在許多地方趨於穩定，但我們正在承擔風險，當然還有一些計劃到 2025 年繼續監控並與我們的供應商合作。

Does it make sense to vertically integrate anywhere just in the supply chain so you can control some of it?

在供應鏈中的任何地方進行垂直整合以便您可以控制其中的一部分是否有意義？

We have not generally taken a strategy of vertically integrating unless we feel that there is no path forward to support the supplier in remaining viable.

除非我們認為沒有辦法支持供應商維持生存，否則我們通常不會採取垂直整合的策略。

We obviously, from time to time, move away from a supplier that is not performing to another supplier, but we first try to remediate and where we have very few, or even some places sole source suppliers, our first instinct is not to enforce that.

顯然，我們不時會從表現不佳的供應商轉向另一家供應商，但我們首先嘗試進行補救，如果我們的供應商很少，甚至在某些地方是唯一的供應商，我們的第一反應不是強制執行。

It is to support them.

這是為了支持他們。

But there are times when ultimately we do find ourselves needing to bring capability in-house to ensure we perform on behalf of our customer commitment.

但有時我們最終確實發現自己需要引入內部能力，以確保我們履行對客戶的承諾。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Maybe if we could talk about the multiyear growth cadence, just looking at the backlog pretty solid and a competitor talked about supply chain and potentially being able to execute to close the gaps.

也許我們可以談論多年的成長節奏，只要看看積壓的訂單相當穩定，而競爭對手則談論供應鏈以及可能能夠執行以縮小差距。

Assuming the headwinds in Space go away and just thinking about flagship programs, what type of growth should we be thinking about and targeting for Northrop over the multiyear time horizon?

假設太空領域的逆風消失，只考慮旗艦項目，那麼我們應該在多年的時間範圍內考慮和瞄準諾斯羅普的哪種類型的增長？

Well, we've been growing at 5% compound annual growth since 2019.

自 2019 年以來，我們的複合年增長率一直在 5%。

And each year, we come into the year with some opportunities and risks that we work to mitigate, and I'm very proud of the team for having been able to keep and maintain that very solid growth rate for the last five years.

每年，我們都會面臨一些我們努力減輕的機會和風險，我為團隊在過去五年中保持非常穩健的成長率感到非常自豪。

As we look forward, we've guided at 3% to 4%, as you know, and that too has both risks and opportunities.

展望未來，如您所知，我們的指導值為 3% 到 4%，這也既有風險也有機會。

We think it's a very balanced approach.

我們認為這是一種非常平衡的方法。

If we were to see some of these supply chain challenges ease, we could see upward pressure on that growth rate.

如果我們看到其中一些供應鏈挑戰得到緩解，我們可能會看到成長率面臨上行壓力。

If we are competitively successful on opportunities in our pipeline, we could see upward pressure on that growth rate.

如果我們在管道中的機會上取得競爭成功，我們可能會看到成長率的上行壓力。

And if we are able to continue to capture international business at the rate we did in the second -- in the third quarter at two times our sales, that certainly will provide some upward pressure on that growth rate.

如果我們能夠繼續以第二季和第三季銷售額兩倍的速度獲得國際業務，這肯定會給成長率帶來一些上行壓力。

So we are working hard to materialize those opportunities.

因此，我們正在努力實現這些機會。

There are clearly risks as well.

顯然也存在風險。

Really, the downside is the flip side of each of those things that I just outlined.

確實，缺點是我剛才概述的每一件事的反面。

But we believe that 3% to 4% next year is a realistic starting point as we enter the year with what we know today.

但我們相信明年 3% 到 4% 是一個現實的起點，因為我們以今天所知的情況進入了這一年。

We don't guide beyond that, as you know.

如您所知，我們不會提供超出此範圍的指導。

But I have said that I believe this business can continue to grow in that mid-single digit range.

但我說過，我相信這項業務可以繼續在中個位數範圍內成長。

And so that is the plan that we've laid out for ourselves.

這就是我們為自己所訂的計劃。

And based on what we see today, we think that's achievable.

根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們認為這是可以實現的。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Welcome Ken.

歡迎肯。

Kathy, I wanted to see if you could just broadly touch on B-21 and the progress there relative to the charge that you've taken, kind of where you are in signing up additional LRIP lots, pricing on those, where you are with kind of locking in your suppliers.

凱西，我想了解一下您是否可以大致談談 B-21 以及相對於您所收取費用的進展情況，您在簽署額外 LRIP 批次方面的情況，這些批次的定價，您在哪裡有點鎖定你的供應商。

Yeah, just kind of wherever you want to take it in terms of an update on B-21 and then margin progression at AS.

是的，無論你想把它帶到什麼地方，例如 B-21 的更新，然後是 AS 的利潤進展。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So let me start with B-21 and then I will tie it to the broader AS margin picture because that's important in that while B-21 is a key program in our company, it is not the majority of AS sales and so the rest of the picture is important in drawing out the view on margin performance for the business, which, as I said, was just outstanding again this quarter.

因此，讓我從B-21 開始，然後我將其與更廣泛的AS 利潤圖聯繫起來，因為這很重要，因為雖然B-21 是我們公司的關鍵項目，但它並不是AS 銷售的大部分，因此其餘部分這張圖片對於描繪該業務的利潤率表現非常重要，正如我所說，該業務本季度再次表現出色。

With B-21, we are on track for meeting the milestones associated with an award of LRIP 2.

憑藉 B-21，我們有望實現與授予 LRIP 2 相關的里程碑。

And so, we are expecting that to happen in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計這將在第四季度發生。

We have talked to you about LRIP being awarded approximately annually.

我們已經與您討論過 LRIP 大約每年頒發一次。

And so this is the time of year where that happens, and we expect to get that on contract.

因此，每年的這個時候都會發生這種情況，我們希望在合約中得到這種情況。

We have no change to pricing.

我們的定價沒有改變。

As you know, those were priced.

如您所知，這些都是定價的。

And we have no change to our estimate at complete based on our third quarter review.

根據第三季的審查，我們對完成的估計沒有變化。

So we are continuing to perform, as I said a few moments ago, in alignment with the plan that we have laid out for the B-21.

因此，正如我剛才所說，我們將繼續按照我們為 B-21 制定的計劃執行任務。

I'm very proud of that team.

我為這個團隊感到非常自豪。

It's quite a remarkable accomplishment what they are doing, both on development and production.

無論是在開發還是生產方面，他們所做的都是一項相當了不起的成就。

As we look at the broader AS, through activities they've taken to manage costs and drive productivity, some really innovative work they're doing in workforce training to get new employees onto the factory floor, more productive on day one and down the learning curve quicker.

當我們審視更廣泛的AS 時，透過他們為管理成本和提高生產力而採取的活動，他們在勞動力培訓方面所做的一些真正創新的工作，旨在讓新員工進入工廠車間，在第一天和學習過程中提高工作效率曲線更快。

We have been able to really improve our performance on the more mature production programs as well, which has provided even further lift to AS and contributed to the very strong margin rates that we are seeing on that mature production portfolio.

我們也能夠真正提高更成熟的生產計劃的績效，這為 AS 提供了進一步的提升，並為我們在成熟的生產組合中看到的非常強勁的利潤率做出了貢獻。

We had talked a year ago about that being the vision, and I'm pleased to say that the team has executed it very well.

一年前我們就討論過這個願景，我很高興地說團隊已經很好地執行了它。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Question, Kathy, just a quick one for you on the trends going on there in Europe and the pipeline and the bookings that you've been seeing there given the demand.

問一個問題，凱西，請快速向您介紹歐洲的趨勢以及考慮到需求，您在那裡看到的管道和預訂情況。

I'm just curious the contract types that you'll be operating with there, generally speaking, FMS versus direct commercial?

我只是好奇你們將在那裡運營的合約類型，一般來說，FMS 與直接商業？

And kind of what does that portend for margins across the businesses going forward as that mix shifts maybe a little bit more to some international work?

隨著這種組合可能更多地轉向一些國際工作，這對未來各業務的利潤率有何預示？

It's a combination of contract types that we see across our international sales portfolio for our ammunition and weapons products.

這是我們在彈藥和武器產品的國際銷售組合中看到的合約類型的組合。

We typically see those as direct commercial sales.

我們通常將其視為直接商業銷售。

And for our more complex weapon systems, anything that would entail integration, for instance, IBCS, Triton, we would see those as FMS sales.

對於我們更複雜的武器系統，任何需要整合的東西，例如 IBCS、Triton，我們都將其視為 FMS 銷售。

In both cases, we tend to see those as accretive to overall both segment and company margin rate.

在這兩種情況下，我們傾向於認為這些都會增加整個部門和公司的利潤率。

As a result of us being further down the learning curve when we price those because we're building off of mature product lines.

由於我們是在成熟的產品線基礎上建立的，因此在定價時我們的學習曲線進一步下降。

And so, we expect that trend to continue as we look at the pipeline into next year because some of the weapon system sales are larger.

因此，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去，因為我們看到明年的管道，因為一些武器系統的銷售量更大。

We do see that as a bigger contributor to the growth.

我們確實認為這是對成長的更大貢獻。

But DCS is also an important part of the international pipeline, and we see both growing into next year.

但 DCS 也是國際管道的重要組成部分，我們預計兩者都會在明年成長。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a quick follow-up, just sticking with contract types domestically, are you seeing any interesting comments or observations that you can make about the current contracting environment in the -- any shifts in DoD strategy on how they're going to ask you all to get yourselves on contract going forward?

然後快速跟進，僅堅持國內合約類型，您是否看到任何有趣的評論或觀察，您可以對當前的合約環境做出任何有趣的評論或觀察——國防部戰略關於他們將如何詢問的任何變化你們都想繼續簽約嗎？

I haven't seen any significant shift but more dialogue for sure, in terms of what contract type is appropriate for the work that is being conducted.

我沒有看到任何重大轉變，但肯定會就哪種合約類型適合正在進行的工作進行更多對話。

And as a result, we have seen on particular opportunities, a shift from one type to another based on industry engagement.

因此，我們在特定的機會中看到了基於行業參與度從一種類型轉向另一種類型的轉變。

So I think that's healthy.

所以我認為這是健康的。

It's helping the government to really understand what motivates industry and what's necessary in terms of the business conditions for us to be able to invest in the way that supports the government’s ability to get products in a timely fashion.

它幫助政府真正了解產業的動力以及商業條件的必要條件，以便我們能夠以支持政府及時獲得產品的方式進行投資。

Because at the end of the day, cost is one element, but schedule is another, and we want to make sure that we can deliver not only what, but when, and at the price that is agreed to.

因為歸根結底，成本是一個因素，但時間表是另一個因素，我們希望確保我們不僅能夠交付什麼，而且能夠交付時間和價格。

So getting the contract type right is an important ingredient to make that all work.

因此，正確選擇合約類型是使這一切順利進行的重要因素。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Ken, was the F-35 program a driver of positive EACs at Aeronautics again this quarter?

Ken，F-35 計畫是否在本季再次推動航空部門實現積極的 EAC？

And then would there be additional opportunity to expand margins on center fuselage over the coming years as you move to newer lots that have some better pricing on them?

那麼，當您轉向定價更優惠的新地段時，未來幾年是否還有機會擴大中機身的利潤？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks for the question, Scott.

謝謝你的提問，斯科特。

We're absolutely pleased with AS' performance in the quarter and what drove the overall positive in terms of net earnings adjustments.

我們對 AS 本季的業績以及推動淨利調整整體正面的因素感到非常滿意。

It really was a portfolio approach.

這確實是一種投資組合方法。

And so it wasn't one program alone.

所以這並不是一個單獨的項目。

It was mature production programs from across that portfolio, and we expect that to be the case, and it's really showing the benefits of the deliberate actions that we're taking to drive costs out of the business, to create efficiencies and it's paying off.

這是整個產品組合中成熟的生產計劃，我們預計情況會如此，它確實顯示了我們為降低業務成本、創造效率而採取的深思熟慮的行動所帶來的好處，並且它正在得到回報。

As we look forward, our team is focused on leveraging the investments we made in our factories to drive efficiencies.

展望未來，我們的團隊將專注於利用我們對工廠的投資來提高效率。

And so I do anticipate opportunities across our mature production programs moving forward, leading to improved booking rates.

因此，我確實預計我們成熟的製作計劃將有機會向前發展，從而提高預訂率。

However, knowing in 2025, we do have a mix shift, particularly related to the growth on the restricted programs, which will put pressure relative to the overall booking rates you saw in AS this year.

然而，據了解，到 2025 年，我們確實會發生混合變化，特別是與受限項目的成長相關，這會對您今年在 AS 看到的整體預訂率造成壓力。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Ken, maybe just what segments do you view as having the greatest opportunity to expand margins next year?

然後，肯，您認為明年哪些細分市場最有機會擴大利潤？

And then maybe you could walk through some of the drivers there that would underpin that?

然後也許您可以介紹一下支持這一點的一些驅動因素？

Sure, so when we think about next year is we see opportunities to expand margin across three of the four segments per my previous comments on AS.

當然，所以當我們考慮明年時，根據我之前對 AS 的評論，我們看到了擴大四個細分市場中三個細分市場利潤率的機會。

I would say, given the comments that Kathy made before, the mix of international, the focus on weapon systems, I believe DS has -- is one of the major drivers of that margin expansion.

我想說，考慮到凱西之前發表的評論，我相信 DS 的國際組合和對武器系統的關注是利潤擴大的主要驅動力之一。

Also, too, is with MS, it's important to realize that MS creates an immense amount of value for our company and our shareholders.

此外，對於 MS 來說，重要的是要認識到 MS 為我們的公司和股東創造了巨大的價值。

They're booking close to 14%.

他們的預訂率接近 14%。

We've seen some headwinds that as we've communicated are temporal in nature.

我們已經看到了一些不利因素，正如我們所傳達的那樣，這些不利因素本質上是暫時的。

And so as we move forward, do expect MS to continue to see accretive margins.

因此，隨著我們向前邁進，微軟的利潤率將持續成長。

And then long term, as we shift back more towards FFP that margin expansion will continue to get back to the historical norms that we've seen.

從長遠來看，隨著我們更多地轉向FFP，利潤率擴張將繼續回到我們所看到的歷史正常水平。

And then in Space, I think this quarter is an absolute great reflection of Space and the activities that they are taking to focus on performance, drive efficiencies into the business.

然後在 Space 方面，我認為這個季度絕對很好地反映了 Space 以及他們為專注於績效、提高業務效率而採取的活動。

And so we see opportunities there to expand margins as well.

因此，我們也看到了擴大利潤的機會。

So it's going to be a portfolio approach across those three segments and DS should be the primary driver.

因此，這將是跨越這三個細分市場的組合方法，而 DS 應該是主要驅動力。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·考恩。

Yes.

是的。

Congrats, Dave and Ken.

恭喜戴夫和肯恩。

I'm curious on two things.

我對兩件事很好奇。

One, just big picture, we got an election coming up.

第一，從大局來看，我們即將舉行選舉。

Do you see any dramatic differences between either candidate or administration on your programs and defense broadly?

您是否認為候選人或政府在您的計劃和國防方面有顯著差異？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個後續行動。

Thanks, Gautam, and welcome.

謝謝，高塔姆，歡迎。

I do not see a significant difference.

我沒有看到顯著差異。

What we have seen over time is that the defense budget more reflects the threat environment than any particular administration change.

隨著時間的推移，我們看到的是，國防預算比任何特定的政府變化更能反映威脅環境。

And so we fully expect that again this time.

因此，我們完全期待這次的再次發生。

The National Defense Strategy has remained consistent over the past several years and the last couple of administrations.

國防戰略在過去幾年和過去幾屆政府中保持一致。

And we believe that's because it is responsive to the emerging threats around the globe and focused on both deterring and defending.

我們認為這是因為它對全球新出現的威脅做出了反應，並專注於威懾和防禦。

And in that regard, it's well aligned to the program portfolio that Northrop Grumman has with a significant portion of our work supporting the U.S. in both build and modernization of the Nuclear Triad, but also a portfolio that very much supports the U.S. and our allies in being able to defend in conflict when called upon.

在這方面，它與諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的項目組合非常一致，我們的工作很大一部分是支持美國核三位一體的建設和現代化，而且也是一個非常支持美國和我們的盟友的項目組合。

So we expect those to continue to be the driving features of a National Defense Strategy, and therefore, what the budgets will support and reflect.

因此，我們預計這些將繼續成為國防戰略的驅動特徵，因此也是預算將支持和反映的內容。

And just a quick follow-up on Space beyond 2025.

這只是 2025 年以後太空的快速跟進。

I mean what do you think kind of the longer-term trajectory of that revenue will be?

我的意思是，您認為該收入的長期軌跡會是什麼樣子？

What we've said about Space beyond 2025 is that we do expect it to return to growth.

關於 2025 年後的太空業，我們所說的是我們確實預期它會恢復成長。

And we also have said that it's growing mid-single digits without the headwinds of the two programs that are winding down.

我們也說過，在沒有面臨兩個即將結束的計畫的不利因素的情況下，它的成長幅度為中個位數。

So it gives you a good sense of what we think that run rate might look like coming out of 2025.

因此，它可以讓您很好地了解我們認為 2025 年運行率可能會是什麼樣子。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Kathy, I wanted to follow up on the Space question because it's been complicated with the movement of Sentinel and NGI and the classified program.

凱西，我想跟進太空問題，因為哨兵和 NGI 的運動以及機密程序使這個問題變得複雜。

When you look forward from here, I guess, first of all, is it possible to compare apples-to-apples on what's changed in the Space backlog over the past year, if we take out those other programs?

當你從這裡展望時，我想，首先，如果我們去掉那些其他項目，是否可以對過去一年太空積壓的變化進行同類比較？

And then can you highlight kind of what some of the more important programs -- or program areas will be in getting the growth rate you're talking about?

然後您能否強調一些更重要的計劃或計劃領域將有助於實現您所說的成長率？

Sure.

當然。

When you look at the move of the SDS portfolio from Space to Defense, it is largely the Sentinel program.

當你看到 SDS 產品組合從太空轉向國防時，你會發現它主要是哨兵計畫。

And so the backlog shift that we made there gives you a sense of what that profile is for Sentinel.

因此，我們在那裡所做的積壓工作轉移讓您了解了 Sentinel 的概況。

And you also can take a look at what's remaining and see that there is a very healthy sized backlog to support the Space business.

您也可以查看剩餘的內容，發現有大量的積壓訂單可以支援太空業務。

And while it's made up of a number of programs, many of which are restricted, it is broad-based in its nature.

雖然它由許多計劃組成，其中許多計劃受到限制，但它本質上具有廣泛的基礎。

It is supporting ground, satellite builds, it is supporting intelligence missions as well as the Department of Defense and a significant portion of it is NASA and related civilian missions.

它支援地面、衛星建設，支援情報任務以及國防部，其中很大一部分是美國太空總署和相關的民用任務。

And so, what we can say is the backlog is well-diversified.

因此，我們可以說積壓的訂單是多元化的。

It is large, and it is in many cases, early-stage programs that still have a lot of runway in front of them in terms of either future awards or production volume associated with development programs.

它規模很大，而且在許多情況下都是早期項目，無論是在未來的獎項還是與開發項目相關的產量方面，它們面前仍然有很多跑道。

And then just if I can, one follow-up on Defense Systems.

如果可以的話，然後是關於防禦系統的後續行動。

Can you give a picture at all of what your expectation is for the percentage you'll get from international over the next couple of years since it is clearly expanding?

您能否描述一下您對未來幾年從國際業務中獲得的百分比的期望，因為它正在明顯擴大？

Doug, I'd prefer to wait until we guide in 2025 because it is rapidly expanding.

Doug，我寧願等到 2025 年我們提供指導，因為它正在迅速擴張。

And as you know, at this time of year, we're still in our process of laying out the details associated with our long-range plan.

如您所知，每年的這個時候，我們仍在製定與我們的長期計劃相關的細節。

And I know you're not just asking for what does that look like in a one-year blip in 2025, but what does that trajectory look like over time.

我知道您不僅想知道 2025 年的一年時間會是什麼樣子，還想知道隨著時間的推移，這條軌跡會是什麼樣子。

And I'll be able to give some more color on that in the January call and would be happy to do so since it is an important part of our growth strategy, not just in Defense Systems, but we believe it's material to the company overall.

我將能夠在1 月的電話會議中對此進行更多闡述，並且很樂意這樣做，因為這是我們成長策略的重要組成部分，不僅是在國防系統領域，而且我們相信這對整個公司都很重要。

And two other segments, both Aeronautics and Mission Systems have significant international growth opportunities as well.

另外兩個領域，航空和任務系統也有重要的國際成長機會。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

肯‧赫伯特，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Kathy, I wanted to ask you a question about autonomy.

凱西，我想問你一個關於自治的問題。

You've got a number of legacy programs here.

這裡有許多遺留程序。

As we go to AUSA and look across the industry, funding for autonomy and related technologies just seems to be incredibly strong.

當我們前往澳洲美國並縱觀整個產業時，對自主性和相關技術的資助似乎非常強勁。

How would you characterize your portfolio in autonomy today?

您如何評價您今天的自主投資組合？

Where are you investing?

你在哪裡投資？

And maybe what do you see as a couple of the big opportunities for you over the next few years?

也許您認為未來幾年對您來說有哪些重大機會？

Yes.

是的。

We certainly have been a leader in autonomy and continue to be and across multiple domains and weapon systems types.

我們無疑一直是自主領域的領導者，並將繼續在多個領域和武器系統類型中保持領先地位。

So when you think about our history, it's largely been associated with aircraft, and we clearly are a leader there in truly autonomous, not remotely piloted, but truly autonomous vehicles, having several in operations today and continue to invest in that area for the future of uncrewed aircraft.

因此，當你思考我們的歷史時，它很大程度上與飛機有關，我們顯然是真正自主（不是遙控駕駛）而是真正自主車輛的領導者，今天有幾輛正在運營，並將在未來繼續在該領域進行投資無人駕駛飛機。

When you think about satellites, the command and control of a satellite, it is an ultimate autonomous vehicle.

當你想到衛星、衛星的指揮和控制時，它就是一種終極的自動駕駛汽車。

And more and more, the opportunity set in Space is around maneuverability and command and control.

太空中的機會越來越多地圍繞著機動性和指揮與控制。

So we're investing there.

所以我們在那裡投資。

And then finally, when you think about weapon systems, they are less expensive, uncrewed vehicles in many cases, and that's not just in the weapon itself, but as we think about the role that they play in defense.

最後，當你想到武器系統時，在許多情況下它們都是更便宜的無人駕駛車輛，這不僅體現在武器本身，而且當我們考慮它們在防禦中發揮的作用時。

So we are investing in autonomy company-wide and really drawing threads across those investments and not thinking so much about the platform but the technology itself, which in this case is more in the software and integration.

因此，我們正在全公司範圍內投資自主權，並真正在這些投資之間劃清界限，而不是過多考慮平台，而是技術本身，在這種情況下更多的是軟體和整合。

And one of the differentiations of our company is that we are not just hardware, we're software and integration, and we've demonstrated that through a number of leading-edge programs that allow us to get the benefit of both worlds coming together at scale and in operation.

我們公司的與眾不同之處之一是，我們不僅僅是硬件，我們還是軟體和集成，我們已經通過許多領先的計劃證明了這一點，這些計劃使我們能夠從兩個世界的融合中獲益。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And as the software continues to be a driver here, do you think there's risk that on the customer side, sort of adaption or risk appetite could potentially hold back some of the opportunities here?

由於軟體仍然是這裡的驅動力，您認為在客戶方面是否存在風險，某種適應或風險偏好可能會阻礙這裡的一些機會？

Or how do you think the customer is able to keep up with what you're able to do on the technology side?

或者您認為客戶如何跟上您在技術方面的能力？

I think there's an appetite for the capability that is strong.

我認為人們對這種能力的需求很強烈。

Getting through a certification program, particularly when you think about airworthiness with an autonomous vehicle is not easy.

通過認證計劃並不容易，尤其是當您考慮自動駕駛汽車的適航性時。

And we've done it, not many companies have, and we have, but it is a rigorous process for good reason.

我們已經做到了，雖然沒有多少公司做到了，但我們做到了，但這是一個嚴格的過程，有充分的理由。

And it is one that should remain rigorous, and that's really where you need to be assured that your software is sufficiently protected and tested to be able to operate under conditions where you may have denied communications and jamming and other impacts to what would be rudimentary ways of supporting autonomy or remote piloting.

這是一個應該保持嚴格的要求，這確實是您需要確保您的軟體得到充分保護和測試的地方，以便能夠在您可能拒絕通信、幹擾和其他對基本方式的影響的條件下運行支援自主或遠程駕駛。

So I'm going into a little bit of detail to just share, it is not an easy task.

所以我要分享一些細節，這不是一件容易的事。

So the demand certainly is there.

所以需求肯定是存在的。

The ability to respond to that demand, I think, will be the pacing item for some companies.

我認為，響應這種需求的能力將成為一些公司的重點項目。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Dave, it sounds like 2024 free cash flow is going to be comfortably at the high end of the range based on your comments.

戴夫，根據您的評論，聽起來 2024 年自由現金流將輕鬆處於該範圍的高端。

Is that right?

是這樣嗎？

And then maybe Ken, on the 2025 outlook for free cash flow, the guidance or the increase is about $600 million.

然後肯，關於 2025 年自由現金流的展望，指導或增加約為 6 億美元。

That looks like it's just covered with pension, CapEx and taxes.

看起來它只是由退休金、資本支出和稅收覆蓋。

So is there working capital or maybe burn off of B-21 that's offsetting earnings?

那麼，是否有營運資金或 B-21 的消耗可以抵銷收益？

I'll be happy to start, Myles, on 2024, and then hand it to Ken for a discussion of periods beyond.

邁爾斯，我很樂意從 2024 年開始，然後將其交給肯，以討論以後的時期。

We didn't mean to indicate a direction toward either end of the free cash flow range for this year.

我們並不是想要指出今年自由現金流範圍兩端的方向。

As we noted, we've had a strong third quarter and year-to-date performance for free cash flow.

正如我們所指出的，我們的第三季和年初至今的自由現金流表現強勁。

I think if you look at prior year trends, you'd see a similar trend line through prior years of the quarterly progression such that Q4 is expected this year, as it has been in the past, to be a strong free cash flow quarter.

我認為，如果您查看去年的趨勢，您會看到前幾年季度進展的類似趨勢線，因此預計今年第四季度將像過去一樣成為強勁的自由現金流季度。

But we're not meaning to indicate a direction toward either end of the free cash flow range.

但我們並不是想要指出自由現金流範圍兩端的方向。

We're pleased to continue to maintain that really strong range that reflects a strong growth year over year in 2024.

我們很高興繼續保持這一強勁的區間，這反映出 2024 年同比的強勁增長。

So Ken, over to you for any follow-up discussion on '25.

那麼 Ken，請您來進行關於 '25 的後續討論。

Sure, so from a working capital perspective, as we've communicated in the past, we expect that to be relatively flat.

當然，從營運資金的角度來看，正如我們過去所傳達的那樣，我們預計這一數字將相對持平。

You'll see it at elevated levels right now, and that's just timing as we get through quarter four with the sales profile, it will level to our historical norms.

現在您會看到它處於較高的水平，而這正是我們在第四季度的銷售概況中看到的時機，它將達到我們的歷史標準。

We expect that in 2025, and when we think about what is driving the cash flow expansion in 2025, I would put it in two primary drivers.

我們預計到 2025 年，當我們思考推動 2025 年現金流擴張的因素時，我會將其歸類為兩個主要驅動因素。

The first is operating performance, so as we expand margins, and we convert those margins to cash.

首先是經營業績，因此當我們擴大利潤時，我們會將這些利潤轉換為現金。

The other major driver is the reductions in investment from our historical peaks.

另一個主要驅動因素是投資較歷史高峰減少。

There are some minor benefits regarding R&D cash taxes as well as CAS pension recoveries, but it's really going to be driven by operations and investment levels.

研發現金稅和 CAS 退休金回收有一些小的好處，但它實際上是由營運和投資水準所驅動的。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Congratulations to Dave and Ken.

祝賀戴夫和肯恩。

Kathy, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about within Defense Systems and the missiles and munitions, we saw some investments, some additional investment in solid rocket motors.

凱西，我想知道你是否可以談談國防系統以及導彈和彈藥方面的情況，我們看到了一些投資，一些對固體火箭發動機的額外投資。

And I think there's a sense that there's a lot of capacity coming into the solid rocket motor area.

我認為固體火箭發動機領域有很大的產能。

We saw kind of a surge in demand for missiles and munitions, but kind of how enduring is the demand level there?

我們看到對飛彈和彈藥的需求激增，但需求水準有多持久？

And so, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about how you see that given the investments that you're making?

因此，我想知道您是否可以談談考慮到您正在進行的投資您對此有何看法？

Yeah, we do see that not only the U.S., but multiple allies are likely to need to re-stockpile munitions they have donated to Ukraine.

是的，我們確實看到，不僅美國，多個盟國都可能需要重新儲存他們捐贈給烏克蘭的彈藥。

And as a result, we believe that this higher demand signal is enduring for multiple years.

因此，我們相信這種更高的需求訊號將持續多年。

We have invested to laying capacity, as you know, and increased capacity, more than doubled at this point, in moving toward a tripling of capacity with some U.S. government-supported funding.

如您所知，我們已經投資於鋪設產能，並增加了產能，目前已增加了一倍以上，在美國政府支持的一些資金的支持下，產能將增加兩倍。

And as we do that, we are working through our supply chain to ensure it's not just our capacity, but it's theirs as well to support the entire build process.

當我們這樣做時，我們正在透過我們的供應鏈來確保這不僅是我們的能力，而且是他們的能力來支援整個建造過程。

As others are coming into the marketplace, I think there will come a time when we need to look at how much capacity is enough.

隨著其他人進入市場，我認為總有一天我們需要考慮多少容量才足夠。

We are certainly not at that place in our company at this point in time, the investments that we are making, we are committed to making, and we believe there will be plenty of demand for that capacity.

目前我們公司當然還沒有達到那個位置，我們正在進行的投資，我們致力於進行的投資，我們相信對這種能力會有大量的需求。

But we'll continue to monitor it as we do any area where we're facilitizing to ensure that we don't get out ahead of the demand signal.

但我們將繼續對其進行監控，就像我們在推動的任何領域一樣，以確保我們不會在需求訊號出現之前退出。

Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.

馬特·埃克斯，富國銀行。

Can you talk about kind of CapEx trends longer term?

能談談長期資本支出趨勢嗎？

I think, Kathy, you kind of mentioned in the opening remarks, ‘25 lower but still sort of elevated versus historical levels.

我想，Kathy，您在開場白中提到了 25 %，但與歷史水平相比仍然較高。

Is there room for that sort of move down either in absolute terms further out or as a percentage of sales and sort of what's driving that investment right now?

是否有進一步下降的空間，無論是絕對值還是銷售額的百分比以及目前推動投資的因素？

Yeah, I'll take that.

是的，我會接受的。

We certainly want to ensure we're able to continue to invest in our growing business as well as return cash to shareholders.

我們當然希望確保我們能夠繼續投資於不斷成長的業務並向股東返還現金。

And it is true for the last several years, we have been investing more heavily in the business because the opportunities were there, and these were good opportunities that would create long-term profitable growth for the company.

確實，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在增加對業務的投資，因為機會就在那裡，而這些都是很好的機會，可以為公司創造長期的獲利成長。

As we look over the horizon, we still see opportunities to grow the business, but not as capital intensive as what we have experienced.

展望未來，我們仍然看到業務成長的機會，但不像我們所經歷的那樣資本密集。

And many of the growth opportunities that we have ahead of us this decade, we have now invested in to support the program and its move to production.

我們現在已經投資了這十年來面臨的許多成長機會，以支持該計劃及其投入生產。

So we naturally are seeing less pressure for CapEx in the out years of our plan.

因此，在我們計劃的最後幾年裡，我們自然會看到資本支出的壓力較小。

And we are going to be responsive to that by lowering our CapEx expenditure.

我們將透過降低資本支出來應對這個問題。

I believe it will still be at a historical norm level, not below that, but just not as elevated as it has been in the past several years.

我相信它仍將處於歷史正常水平，不會低於該水平，但不會像過去幾年那樣高。

And we've been specific about what that looks like in 2025.

我們已經明確了 2025 年的情況。

We've also said that it will come down further in 2026, but we haven't put more numbers to it beyond 2025.

我們也說過，2026 年這一數字將進一步下降，但我們沒有提供 2025 年後的更多數字。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

斯科特·米庫斯，Melius 研究公司。

Morning.

早晨。

Kathy, I wanted to ask, the Air Force seems very pleased with Northrop's execution on B-21.

凱西，我想問一下，空軍似乎對諾斯羅普在 B-21 上的處決感到非常滿意。

The program of record calls for 100 production units, but the Air Force has publicly stated that its desired inventory is for 150 B-21s.

該計劃要求生產 100 架，但空軍已公開表示其所需庫存為 150 架 B-21。

With the Air Force reevaluating at least the manned part of NGAD, could that free up future funding for the Air Force to get to that desired B-21 inventory of 150 units?

隨著空軍至少重新評估 NGAD 的載人部分，這是否可以為空軍釋放未來的資金，以達到所需的 150 架 B-21 庫存？

Well, Scott, I think that's exactly what the Air Force is looking at.

嗯，史考特，我認為這正是空軍正在考慮的問題。

They are undertaking a force structure design review, and the Secretary has been open about looking at the various options they have for increasing their force size and has talked specifically about NGAD, and we know that B-21 is in the mix as well.

他們正在進行部隊結構設計審查，國防部長一直開放地考慮他們增加部隊規模的各種選擇，並特別談到了 NGAD，我們知道 B-21 也在其中。

It would be premature for me to suggest where that force structure review will end up.

我現在就提出部隊結構審查的最終結果還為時過早。

But I do think in the coming months, we may get a better indication from the Air Force as to how they're thinking about B-21 quantities in the long run.

但我確實認為，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們可能會從空軍那裡得到更好的指示，以了解他們如何考慮 B-21 的長期數量。

In the short run, we remain very focused on delivering them optionality.

從短期來看，我們仍然非常注重為他們提供選擇性。

The performance that we are delivering gives them a capability that is in production now that is well below the cost target for the platform.

我們提供的性能為他們提供了目前正在生產的功能，該功能遠低於平台的成本目標。

And we believe that, that's the role of industry to give the government options as they think about their force structure.

我們相信，工業界的作用就是在政府考慮其力量結構時為他們提供選擇。

I’ll stick with one.

我會堅持使用一個。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Well, let me close by thanking the Northrop Grumman team for another outstanding quarter.

好吧，最後讓我感謝諾斯羅普格魯曼公司團隊又一個出色的季度表現。

They are executing our strategy.

他們正在執行我們的戰略。

And importantly, that means that they're providing the capabilities our customers need in this incredibly dynamic environment that they face.

重要的是，這意味著他們正在為客戶提供在他們面臨的這個令人難以置信的動態環境中所需的功能。

I also just want to take a moment to thank Cai von Rumohr and George Shapiro, neither of whom are on the call today.

我還想花點時間感謝蔡馮魯莫爾和喬治夏皮羅，他們今天都沒有參加電話會議。

But I think you all know they’re retiring after respectively, 55 and 43 years of covering this industry, which is just amazing.

但我想你們都知道，他們在分別報道這個行業 55 和 43 年後即將退休，這真是太神奇了。

And we've truly enjoyed working with them both and we’ll miss their expertise and commitment to this industry.

我們非常享受與他們的合作，我們會懷念他們的專業知識和對這個行業的承諾。

So in addition, I do want to congratulate Dave on his retirement, not quite 55 years in the industry, but the five years with our company have been truly outstanding and wish you all the best in your retirement.

此外，我確實想祝賀 Dave 退休，雖然他在這個行業工作的時間還不到 55 年，但在我們公司工作的五年確實非常出色，並祝您退休後一切順利。

So thanks to all of you for joining our call.

感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。

We look forward to talking to you again in January, if not before.

我們期待在一月份（如果不是更早的話）再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。