諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's first quarter 2025 conference call. This call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加諾斯羅普格魯曼公司 2025 年第一季電話會議。此通話正在錄音。我叫喬希 (Josh)，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

現在我想將電話轉給主持人、投資者關係副總裁托德恩斯特先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. Before we start today, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2025 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

謝謝，喬希，大家早安。在我們今天開始之前，今天電話會議上討論的問題，包括 2025 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用的信息做出的判斷。它們根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款構成前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中指出的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性可能會導致公司實際業績產生重大差異。

Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. In addition, we'll refer to a presentation that is posted to our Investor Relations website.

今天的電話會議將包括與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 結果相協調的非 GAAP 財務指標。此外，我們將參考發佈到我們的投資者關係網站上的一份簡報。

On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO, and President; and Ken Crews, our CFO.

今天參加電話會議的有我們的主席、執行長兼總裁 Kathy Warden；以及我們的財務長 Ken Crews。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

現在，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our first quarter earnings conference call. A lot has happened since our last call in January, so we're looking forward to providing you an update on the quarter and our expectations for the year.

謝謝，托德。大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。自從我們一月份上次電話會議以來發生了很多事情，因此我們期待向您提供本季度的最新情況以及我們對今年的期望。

We are operating in a rapidly evolving world, and we are managing through a dynamic U.S. defense budget environment, with the first of its kind, full-year continuing resolution. Within this environment, we continue to see strong demand signals from our global customers, resulting in another record backlog in the first quarter of $92.8 billion, and that's inclusive of strong international bookings. As we indicated in mid-February, we've experienced delays in certain awards, which resulted in a slower sales ramp in the first quarter than we previously anticipated. We expect this to improve throughout the year.

我們正處於一個快速發展變化的世界，我們正在管理一個動態的美國國防預算環境，並首次實施全年持續決議。在這種環境下，我們繼續看到來自全球客戶的強勁需求訊號，導致第一季積壓訂單再次創下 928 億美元的新高，其中包括強勁的國際預訂量。正如我們在二月中旬指出的那樣，我們在某些​​獎項上遇到了延遲，這導致第一季的銷售成長速度低於我們先前預期。我們預計這一情況將在全年得到改善。

Margin rates, setting aside the B-21 adjustment, were in line with expectations. We have updated our 2025 financial guidance, and we are re-affirming our outlook for sales and free cash flow. With a growing backlog and progress on award timing, we have confidence in achieving our outlook and remain focused on delivering transformative capabilities for our customers.

除去 B-21 調整，保證金率符合預期。我們更新了 2025 年財務指引，並重申了對銷售和自由現金流的展望。隨著積壓訂單的增加和授予時間的進展，我們有信心實現我們的願景，並繼續專注於為我們的客戶提供變革能力。

I'd like to take a minute to discuss the B-21 profit adjustment made in the quarter. As you saw in the earnings release, we recognized an additional $477 million pre-tax loss. This is largely relating to higher manufacturing costs, primarily resulting from a process change we made to enable a higher production rate, as well as increases in the projected material costs, some of which are related to macroeconomic impacts on material prices. While I'm disappointed with this financial impact, we continue to make solid progress on the program, demonstrating performance objectives through tests, and we are progressing through the first two lots of production.

我想花點時間討論本季所做的 B-21 利潤調整。正如您在收益報告中看到的，我們確認了額外的 4.77 億美元稅前損失。這主要與製造成本上升有關，主要是因為我們為了提高生產率而進行的製程改變，以及預計材料成本的增加，其中一些與宏觀經濟對材料價格的影響有關。雖然我對這種財務影響感到失望，但我們繼續在該計劃上取得穩步進展，透過測試展示了性能目標，並且我們正在完成前兩批生產。

With significant learning behind us, we are ready to deliver the Air Force, this highly capable strategic deterrent. During the quarter, we continued to make significant progress on other key programs as well. On Sentinel, the U.S. Air Force and Northrop Grumman completed a successful static fire test of the Stage-One solid rocket motor for the missile in March. This critical milestone for the weapon system further validates the motors design and paves the way for the production and deployment of a safe, secure, and reliable strategic deterrent.

憑藉豐富的經驗，我們已準備好向空軍提供這強大的戰略威懾力量。本季度，我們在其他關鍵項目上也持續取得重大進展。在哨兵飛彈上，美國空軍和諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司於三月成功完成了該飛彈第一級固體火箭發動機的靜態點火測試。該武器系統的關鍵里程碑進一步驗證了引擎的設計，並為生產和部署安全、可靠、有保障的戰略威懾力量鋪平了道路。

We are also continuing to work with the customer to identify cost and schedule efficiencies, as they evaluate requirements to balance capability, affordability, and schedule for the program.

我們也將繼續與客戶合作，確定成本和進度效率，因為他們評估平衡能力、可負擔性和規劃進度的要求。

In January, the U.S. Army awarded us a nearly $500 million contract for IBCS. Under this award, Northrop Grumman will expand software development and include additional AI and model-based systems engineering capabilities to allow more rapid integration for the Army and our international partners. Earlier this month, we announced the opening of a state-of-the-art production and integration facility in Alabama to support accelerated modernization plans for air and missile defense systems, including IBCS.

今年一月，美國陸軍授予我們一份價值近 5 億美元的 IBCS 合約。根據該合同，諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司將擴大軟體開發，並增加額外的人工智慧和基於模型的系統工程能力，以便陸軍和我們的國際合作夥伴更快地實現整合。本月初，我們宣佈在阿拉巴馬州開設一個最先進的生產和整合設施，以支持包括 IBCS 在內的防空和飛彈防禦系統的加速現代化計劃。

With this investment, it doubles the size of the previous facility footprint, leverages Northrop Grumman’s digital ecosystem, and gives us the ability to scale production and field new capabilities at speed. Also, we received nearly $300 million in awards in the first quarter from the U.S. Navy to produce two additional Triton aircraft and associated support services.

透過這項投資，我們的設施佔地面積將擴大一倍，充分利用諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的數位生態系統，使我們能夠快速擴大生產規模並部署新功能。此外，第一季我們還獲得了美國海軍近 3 億美元的獎勵，用於生產另外兩架 Triton 飛機並提供相關支援服務。

We are also making good progress on delivering Tritons to Australia. The first of four was delivered last year, and the second and third aircraft have completed testing with the U.S. Navy prior to delivery to the Royal Australian Air Force this year.

我們在向澳洲交付 Triton 方面也取得了良好進展。首架飛機於去年交付，第二架和第三架飛機已在美國海軍完成測試，並將於今年交付給澳洲皇家空軍。

Triton is playing a critical role, surveilling high-priority areas of interest in multiple regions. And it was just announced last week that Triton will soon be deployed from southern Japan to commence surveillance and information gathering operations.

Triton 發揮關鍵作用，監視多個地區的高優先關注區域。上週剛宣布，Triton 很快就會從日本南部部署，開始進行監視和資訊收集行動。

I'd like to take the next few minutes to provide our view of the market outlook, for both the industry in general and Northrop Grumman more specifically. For our industry, demand ultimately stems from the global threat environment.

我想利用接下來的幾分鐘來闡述我們對市場前景的看法，包括整個產業以及諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的市場前景。對我們的產業來說，需求最終源自於全球威脅環境。

Over the past decade, this environment has grown increasingly complex, with the re-emergence of peer adversaries, making the pace of innovation and production crucial for deterrence. As a result, our global customers are increasing their investments in national security.

在過去十年中，隨著同等對手的再次出現，這種環境變得越來越複雜，創新和生產的步伐對於威懾至關重要。因此，我們的全球客戶正在增加對國家安全的投資。

In the U.S., we continue to see signs that defense spending will increase, driven by a few ongoing developments. The first is finalization of a continuing resolution for the 2025 defense budget. This CR comes with several provisions that set it apart from previous ones.

在美國，我們繼續看到國防開支將會增加的跡象，這得益於一些正在發生的事態發展。首先是最終確定2025年國防預算的持續決議。此次 CR 包含多項與以往 CR 不同的規定。

The most notable of which are increase in the top-line over FY24 and increased flexibility with spending accounts. Meanwhile, there is a potential for additional funding through the reconciliation process, which could add up to $150 billion to the defense budget to be allocated over multiple years.

其中最值得注意的是 24 財年營業額的成長以及支出帳戶彈性的提高。同時，透過和解進程有可能獲得額外資金，這可能會使國防預算在多年內增加 1,500 億美元。

Both the House and the Senate have passed initial legislation that lays the groundwork for this additional funding. We believe much of this will be used to support investments to maintain our nation's edge against evolving global threats.

眾議院和參議院都通過了初步立法，為這筆額外資金奠定了基礎。我們相信，其中大部分資金將用於支持投資，以保持我國在應對不斷演變的全球威脅方面的優勢。

Lastly, the administration continues to prepare their fiscal year 2026 budget request, and we are encouraged by recent commentary that suggests a continued strong commitment to national security funding at levels higher than prior projections. The administration has highlighted key priority areas such as the Triad, missile defense, and weapons systems, all of which are aligned to core capabilities of Northrop Grumman.

最後，政府繼續準備其 2026 財年的預算請求，最近的評論讓我們感到鼓舞，這些評論表明政府將繼續大力投入高於先前預測的國家安全資金。政府強調了三位一體、飛彈防禦和武器系統等關鍵優先領域，所有這些都與諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司的核心能力一致。

Additionally, the significant increase in defense investment outside the U.S. is leading to a growing pipeline of requests for our products across Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East, as countries seek to protect their sovereign territories and deter aggression.

此外，隨著各國尋求保護其主權領土和遏制侵略，美國以外國防投資的大幅增加導致歐洲、亞太地區和中東地區對我們產品的需求不斷增加。

In Q1, our international sales represented approximately 14% of total sales. We have broadened our customer base, increased the number of products that we can sell internationally, and established new partnerships globally to enhance our addressable market. As a result, we continue to see opportunities to increase our international sales over the coming years. And we are making steady progress in this area, with a first quarter international book-to-bill of 1.45 times and international sales up 11% in the quarter.

第一季度，我們的國際銷售額約佔總銷售額的 14%。我們擴大了客戶群，增加了可以在國際上銷售的產品數量，並在全球範圍內建立了新的合作夥伴關係，以擴大我們的潛在市場。因此，我們將繼續看到未來幾年增加國際銷售額的機會。我們在這一領域正在穩步前進，第一季國際訂單出貨比為 1.45 倍，國際銷售額在本季度增長了 11%。

International bookings were driven in part by over $1 billion in international awards at Mission Systems. Also in the quarter, Poland signed a $745 million letter of acceptance for 200 AARGM-ER missiles, adding to the growth potential for our Defense Systems business.

國際預訂量的成長部分得益於 Mission Systems 獲得的超過 10 億美元的國際獎項。此外，在本季度，波蘭簽署了一份價值 7.45 億美元的採購 200 枚 AARGM-ER 飛彈的中標書，這增加了我們國防系統業務的成長潛力。

We continue to see a broad pipeline of opportunities in the areas of air and missile defense, airborne ISR and C2 systems, and ammunition across multiple markets, including newly emerging opportunities in the Middle East.

我們繼續看到防空和飛彈防禦、機載 ISR 和 C2 系統以及彈藥等領域在多個市場中存在著廣泛的機會，包括中東地區新興的機會。

Our strategy is to compete and win in global markets through technology differentiation, bringing innovation and capability beyond what commercial alternatives can provide. To further our ability to innovate and deliver, we invested $13.5 billion in R&D and infrastructure over the last five years. As a result, we now have the ability to scale, design, and produce while fielding new capabilities at speed.

我們的策略是透過技術差異化在全球市場上競爭並獲勝，帶來超越商業替代品所能提供的創新和能力。為了進一步提高我們的創新和交付能力，我們在過去五年中在研發和基礎設施方面投資了 135 億美元。因此，我們現在有能力擴展、設計和生產，同時快速部署新功能。

We also have a track record of delivering defense technology that stays ahead of the pacing threats. For example, our technology is inside 90% of U.S. national security space satellites. We’re a leader in low observable technology, having produced the first stealth bomber, the B-2, and now its successor, the B-21. We've delivered more than 1.3 million solid rocket motors, and we are a leader in mission systems, where we produce over 1 million secure microchips per year, some of which are 1,000 times faster than microchips in your smartphone. So as we look to the future, we are leveraging our own hardware and software capabilities to develop the next generation of systems, and we're also partnering with leading companies in areas such as AI to ensure our customers have the most advanced capabilities in the world.

我們在提供領先於不斷威脅的國防技術方面也有著良好的記錄。例如，90% 的美國國家安全太空衛星都採用了我們的技術。我們是低可觀測技術領域的領導者，生產了第一架隱形轟炸機 B-2，現在又生產了它的繼任者 B-21。我們已經交付了超過 130 萬台固體火箭發動機，並且是任務系統領域的領導者，每年生產超過 100 萬個安全微晶片，其中一些比智慧型手機中的微晶片快 1,000 倍。因此，展望未來，我們正在利用自己的硬體和軟體能力來開發下一代系統，並且我們還與人工智慧等領域的領先公司合作，以確保我們的客戶擁有世界上最先進的能力。

In conclusion, given our key franchise program, record backlog, strong competitive position, and global market dynamics, we continue to project significant potential ahead. Our focus remains on our strategy of driving innovation, expanding our market presence, and optimizing performance to deliver profitable, sustainable growth. We are committed to our long-term vision of creating value for our shareholders, meeting our customer needs, and staying ahead in an ever-evolving global market landscape.

總而言之，鑑於我們的關鍵特許經營計劃、創紀錄的積壓訂單、強大的競爭地位和全球市場動態，我們繼續預測未來的巨大潛力。我們的重點仍然是推動創新、擴大市場佔有率和優化績效以實現獲利和永續成長的策略。我們致力於實現我們的長期願景：為股東創造價值、滿足客戶需求並在不斷變化的全球市場格局中保持領先地位。

So with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Ken to discuss our first-quarter results and our updated guidance. Ken?

因此，我將把電話轉給肯，討論我們的第一季業績和最新指引。肯？

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by covering our top-line results on slide 4 in our earnings deck.

謝謝你，凱西，大家早安。我將首先介紹我們收益簡報第 4 張投影片上的頂線業績。

First quarter sales were $9.5 billion, down 7% compared to the prior year, and included two less working days compared to Q1 2024. Sales in the quarter were also impacted by multiple contracting delays and timing of material receipts. This sales profile was contemplated in our expectations that we shared in February.

第一季的銷售額為 95 億美元，比上年下降 7%，與 2024 年第一季相比減少了兩個工作天。本季的銷售也受到多次合約延遲和材料收貨時間的影響。我們在二月分享的預期中已經考慮到了這項銷售狀況。

However, as Kathy outlined, we updated our estimates to complete the LRIP phase of the B-21 program late in the quarter, which lowered sales by nearly $100 million. As a result, Q1 sales were slightly below our expectations. However, we are still on the path to achieve our full-year sales guidance.

然而，正如凱西所概述的，我們更新了估計值，以便在本季末完成 B-21 計畫的 LRIP 階段，這使得銷售額降低了近 1 億美元。因此，第一季的銷售額略低於我們的預期。然而，我們仍在實現全年銷售目標的道路上。

In total, Aeronautic sales were down 8% year-over-year due to lower B-21 sales and timing of production and material on mature programs, including F-35. DS first quarter sales increased by $68 million, or 4%, primarily due to the continued ramp on the Sentinel program and higher volume on certain military ammunition programs.

總體而言，由於 B-21 銷量下降以及 F-35 等成熟項目的生產和材料時間安排，航空銷售額較去年同期下降 8%。DS 第一季銷售額成長 6,800 萬美元，即 4%，主要由於 Sentinel 計畫的持續成長以及某些軍用彈藥計畫產量的增加。

Mission Systems sales continued to expand, up $148 million, driven by numerous programs throughout their portfolio. Higher sales on SABR, EW, international ground-based radar, and marine programs all contributed to the 6% growth. And Space sales were lower primarily due to the previously communicated wind down of work on two programs, which totaled approximately $230 million of year-over-year headwinds, as well as from lower volume on CRS and SDA satellite programs.

任務系統的銷售額繼續擴大，成長了 1.48 億美元，這得益於其產品組合中的眾多項目的推動。SABR、EW、國際地基雷達和海洋計畫的銷售額增加都促成了6%的成長。太空銷售額下降主要是由於先前宣布的兩個項目的工作結束，總計約 2.3 億美元的同比不利因素，以及 CRS 和 SDA 衛星項目數量的下降。

Moving to the bottom line, our first quarter segment operating income results are shown on slide 5. As previously discussed, AS adjusted their estimate to complete the LRIP phase of the B-21 program. The total loss provision was $477 million across the five LRIP lots, which had the effect of lowering our company Q1 segment operating margin rate to 6%. At DS, first quarter 2025 segment operating income grew by 15% and their margin rate improved to 9.9%. This improvement was driven by higher volume, improved performance, and an increase in net favorable EACs.

最後，我們的第一季分部營業收入結果顯示在投影片 5 上。如前所述，AS 調整了他們的估計以完成 B-21 計劃的 LRIP 階段。五個 LRIP 地塊的總損失準備金為 4.77 億美元，導致我們公司第一季分部的營業利潤率降至 6%。在 DS，2025 年第一季分部營業收入成長了 15%，利潤率提高至 9.9%。這項改善是由更高的銷售量、更好的性能以及淨有利 EAC 的增加所推動的。

At Mission Systems, quarter one operating margin decreased 4% due to lower volume on certain fixed price restricted production programs and investments made in connection with restricted business opportunities. These reductions were partially offset by higher net EAC adjustments.

在任務系統方面，第一季的營業利潤率下降了 4%，原因是某些固定價格限制生產計劃的數量減少以及與限制性商業機會相關的投資。這些減少被更高的淨 EAC 調整部分抵消。

And at Space, first quarter segment operating income was driven by lower sales volume, partially offset by improved program performance. Notably, Space's net favorable EACs improved to $29 million in Q1, leading to an 11% operating margin rate.

在 Space 部門，第一季的部門營業收入受到銷售量下降的影響，但專案績效的提高部分抵消了這一影響。值得注意的是，Space 的淨有利 EAC 在第一季提高至 2,900 萬美元，從而實現 11% 的營業利潤率。

Outside of the B-21 adjustment, segment operating income was consistent with the first quarter of 2024, and net favorable EACs were higher by over 30% year-over-year. This performance is driven by disciplined program execution and our focus on driving cost efficiencies in our business.

除 B-21 調整外，分部營業收入與 2024 年第一季一致，淨有利 EAC 年增 30% 以上。這項業績是由嚴謹的計畫執行和我們對提高業務成本效率的關注所推動的。

Moving to the year-over-year EPS compare on slide 6. Earnings per share were lower primarily due to the adjustment on B-21, which totaled $2.74 per share on an after-tax basis. Lower sales volume and, as expected, higher corporate unallocated expense also contributed to the combined 25 cents of year-over-year headwind.

前往投影片 6 上的同比 EPS 比較。每股盈餘較低主要是因為 B-21 的調整，稅後總計每股 2.74 美元。銷售量下降以及如預期的那樣企業未分配費用增加也導致年比虧損 25 美分。

Before covering our updated guidance for 2025, I want to take a moment to talk about Q1 cash flow. Consistent with our seasonal pattern and expectations, first quarter results reflected a usage of cash. Operating cash outflow of $1.5 billion reflected an increase in vendor payments, as well as lower billings and collections compared to our prior year.

在介紹我們 2025 年的最新指導之前，我想花點時間談談第一季的現金流。與我們的季節性模式和預期一致，第一季的業績反映了現金的使用情況。15 億美元的經營現金流出反映了供應商付款的增加，以及與前一年相比的帳單和收款減少。

We also invested nearly $300 million in capital expenditures during the period. We continue to expect cash flow to gradually ramp throughout the year, with the largest quarter of cash generation in Q4 consistent with our historical performance. And from a capital deployment perspective, we repaid $1.5 billion of notes that matured in January, as we indicated on our Q4 earnings call.

在此期間，我們還投資了近 3 億美元的資本支出。我們持續預期全年現金流將逐步增加，第四季的現金產生量最大，與我們的歷史表現一致。從資本配置的角度來看，正如我們在第四季財報電話會議上所指出的，我們償還了 1 月到期的 15 億美元票據。

We also returned nearly $800 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

我們也以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了近8億美元。

Turning to company guidance on slide 7, we continue to expect $42 billion to $42.5 billion in 2025 sales, representing 3% to 4% organic growth. Looking forward, we expect mid-single-digit sequential growth in Q2, followed by a sales ramp in the second half of the year, driven by awards booked in Q4 2024, the timing of subcontractor deliveries and material receipts, as well as from new program awards.

談到第 7 張投影片上的公司指引，我們繼續預期 2025 年的銷售額將達到 420 億美元至 425 億美元，相當於 3% 至 4% 的有機成長。展望未來，我們預計第二季將實現中等個位數的環比成長，隨後下半年銷售額將出現成長，這得益於 2024 年第四季獲得的合約、分包商交付和材料收貨的時間以及新專案合約的推動。

With respect to evolving trade policy, the vast majority of our supply chain is sourced from domestic suppliers. After a thorough review of our supply chain, we have a good understanding of the risk areas and are taking mitigation actions where possible to address them.

就不斷變化的貿易政策而言，我們的供應鏈絕大多數來自國內供應商。在對我們的供應鏈進行徹底審查後，我們對風險領域有了充分的了解，並盡可能採取緩解措施來解決這些風險。

Full year segment operating income and EPS guidance have been updated to reflect the B-21 adjustment, which also had the effect of lowering our estimated tax rate for the year to high 16%. And we are reaffirming our 2025 free cash flow guidance range of $2.85 billion to $3.25 billion.

全年分部營業收入和每股盈餘指引已更新，以反映 B-21 調整，這也導致我們今年的預估稅率降低至 16% 的高點。我們重申 2025 年自由現金流指引範圍為 28.5 億美元至 32.5 億美元。

At the segment level, we are reaffirming our sales expectation at each of our segments. We continue to expect mid-single-digit growth at AS and MS driven by continued ramp on B-21, TACAMO, and multiple programs across our diverse MS portfolio. We expect DS will achieve double-digit organic sales growth this year, driven by IBCS backlog, Sentinel, and higher volume in our weapons business.

在細分市場層面，我們正在重申我們對每個細分市場的銷售預期。我們繼續預計 AS 和 MS 將實現中等個位數成長，這得益於 B-21、TACAMO 以及我們多樣化 MS 產品組合中的多個專案的持續成長。我們預計，受 IBCS 積壓訂單、Sentinel 和武器業務銷售增加的推動，DS 今年將實現兩位數的有機銷售成長。

The divestiture of the Training Service Business is on track to close midyear, assume early Q3 for your modeling purposes and we continue to project Space sales of roughly $11 billion, enabled by continued production on existing programs and new competitive wins in the restricted domain.

培訓服務業務的剝離預計在年中完成，假設在第三季初進行建模，我們繼續預測太空銷售額約為 110 億美元，這得益於現有項目的持續生產和在限制領域的新競爭勝利。

We have updated our OM rate expectations at AS and now expect an OM rate of low to mid 6%. We are reaffirming our margin rate expectations for the other segments, with each projected to increase from 2024 actual results.

我們已更新 AS 的 OM 利率預期，目前預計 OM 利率為 6% 左右。我們重申對其他部門的利潤率預期，預計各部門的利潤率將從 2024 年的實際業績中上升。

We expect a gradual ramp in overall segment margin rates over the coming quarters driven by MS. This profile is enabled by continued strong program performance, execution of cost-saving initiatives, and seasonal volume shifts to higher-margin production programs later in the year.

我們預計，在 MS 的推動下，未來幾季整體分部利潤率將逐步上升。這一業績得益於持續強勁的專案表現、成本節約計劃的實施以及今年稍後季節性產量向利潤率更高的生產計劃的轉移。

To conclude, our portfolio is well aligned to customer priorities, and we will continue to drive efficiencies, manage risk, and elevate performance to deliver profitable growth over the long term. This will enable us to execute our capital deployment strategy, which prioritizes investing in innovation and capacity to meet our customer needs while returning cash to shareholders.

總而言之，我們的產品組合與客戶的優先事項完全一致，我們將持續提高效率、管理風險並提升績效，以實現長期獲利成長。這將使我們能夠執行我們的資本配置策略，該策略優先投資於創新和能力以滿足客戶需求，同時向股東返還現金。

With that, we are ready to begin Q&A.

好了，我們準備開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions) Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）克里斯汀·利瓦格（Kristine Liwag），摩根士丹利。

So Kathy, maybe on the B-21, what milestones should we watch for to track the risk retirement of the program? And regarding the macroenvironment that you've put in for the charges, how should we think about this regarding tariffs? Could there be a risk that you could see further charges on the program?

那麼凱西，也許在 B-21 上，我們應該關注哪些里程碑來追蹤該計劃的風險退休？至於您為收費設定的宏觀環境，我們該如何看待關稅問題？該計劃是否有進一步收費的風險？

Thanks, Kristine. So let me start by talking about the phases of the program and where we are in performance. We are completing the EMD phase of the program and are in the stages of tests that prove out the objectives of the aircraft being met through those performance test milestones, and the government has released information as we progress through the test program to help provide some transparency that the aircraft is performing in line with the modeled performance and the test objectives.

謝謝，克里斯汀。那麼，首先讓我來談談該計劃的各個階段以及我們的執行情況。我們正在完成該計劃的 EMD 階段，並且正處於測試階段，透過這些性能測試里程碑來證明飛機的目標已經實現，並且政府在我們進行測試計劃的過程中發布了信息，以幫助提供一定的透明度，表明飛機的性能符合模擬性能和測試目標。

We also have started low-rate initial production. And as we've talked about, we are working through the first two lots of production in LRIP, and we have even started long lead up through lot four. So we've built a good bit of experience now in building the aircraft. And as we have progressed through the build process, we made the determination, working with the Air Force to reduce risk as we scale to the program of record, which will happen at the end of LRIP, and even to position us now to ramp above the program of record.

我們也已經開始了低速率的初始生產。正如我們所討論的，我們正在進行 LRIP 的前兩批生產，甚至已經開始了第四批生產的準備工作。因此，我們在製造飛機方面已經累積了豐富的經驗。隨著建造過程的推進，我們做出了決定，與空軍合作，在擴大記錄計劃規模時降低風險，這將在 LRIP 結束時發生，甚至讓我們現在可以超越記錄計劃。

And those manufacturing changes and associated costs that we talked about being reflected this quarter are a result of that learning in the process of scaling. But it's good to have that learning now understood and behind us before we ramp further through LRIP and then eventually into full-rate production.

我們在本季談到的那些製造變化和相關成本是擴展過程中學習的結果。但在我們進一步推進 LRIP 並最終實現全速率生產之前，最好現在已經理解並掌握了這些知識。

We also have the sustainment and modernization still ahead on the program. We've talked in previous calls about having started some work on modernization, and we are building out the capability to train and sustain on the aircraft as well. So those will gradually phase in over these next several years. And there isn't change based on what we're reporting this quarter in that profile for the program.

我們還需要對該計劃進行維護和現代化改造。我們在先前的電話會議中談到已經開始了一些現代化工作，我們也在建造飛機的訓練和維持能力。因此這些將在未來幾年內逐步實施。根據我們本季報告的該計劃概況，沒有任何變化。

Great. Thank you, Kathy. And maybe I could follow-up on AI. You mentioned earlier that you're seeing opportunities there. Can you provide more color on where you see Northrop Grumman's strategic strengths are in AI versus commercial players or new disruptive players? How much of a game changer are your capabilities in this?

偉大的。謝謝你，凱西。也許我可以跟進人工智慧。您之前提到您在那裡看到了機會。您能否詳細說明一下，相對於商業參與者或新的顛覆性參與者，您認為諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司在人工智慧領域的策略優勢在哪裡？你在這方面的能力能有多大程度改變遊戲規則？

Yes. So we have been investing in artificial intelligence as it’s known today, but for decades, we've been incorporating the concept of distilling large amounts of information through automation into actionable software that helps enable a user to do everything from flying an aircraft with our autonomous aircraft, to distilling large amounts of information for targeting, to helping to assimilate situational awareness and make decisions on how to pair sensors and shooters like with the IBCS program, which I mentioned in my prepared remarks.

是的。因此，我們一直在投資如今眾所周知的人工智慧，但幾十年來，我們一直將透過自動化提煉大量資訊的概念融入可操作的軟體中，幫助用戶完成所有事情，從使用我們的自主飛機駕駛飛機，到提煉大量資訊進行瞄準，再到幫助吸收態勢感知並決定如何將感測器和射擊器配對，就像我在準備好的發言程序中提到的 IBCS 程式一樣。

All of these applications of artificial intelligence help us to make our sensors, our software, more valuable for the user and to do more in short periods of time to prepare that information for the user to act more quickly. And so that is a mission expertise that we possess, and the building of that software and integration of artificial intelligence techniques is something that our team understands how to do.

所有這些人工智慧的應用都幫助我們使我們的感測器、軟體對用戶更有價值，並在短時間內做更多的事情來為用戶準備好訊息，以便他們更快地採取行動。這就是我們所擁有的任務專業知識，我們的團隊了解如何建立該軟體並整合人工智慧技術。

But as that technology matures, we absolutely can partner with other companies who are investing, usually for commercial applications, and bring their platforms in to facilitate our software development. And that's largely what we're doing in the partnerships that we have with companies like NVIDIA.

但隨著技術的成熟，我們絕對可以與其他投資公司（通常用於商業應用）合作，並引入他們的平台來促進我們的軟體開發。這基本上就是我們與 NVIDIA 等公司合作所做的事情。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯托拉德（Robert Stallard），垂直研究。

Kathy, in your prepared remarks, you noted that it's a pretty unstable situation with your U.S. customer at the moment, but you gave us the expectation that you hope things, or expect things, to improve from here. But some of the commentary from the Pentagon suggests that there's going to be significant headcounts, and there's obviously still the potential risk of the DOGE. So what gives you the confidence that this situation, this process problem is going to improve from here?

凱西，在您準備好的發言中，您指出目前您與美國客戶的情況相當不穩定，但您讓我們期望，您希望或期望事情會從現在開始改善。但五角大廈的一些評論表明，將會有大量人員流失，而且顯然 DOGE 仍有潛在風險。那麼，是什麼讓您有信心這種情況、這個過程問題將會得到改善呢？

Well, thanks, Rob. There definitely is uncertainty in the environment, and it's in multiple forms. The one that I referred to in my prepared remarks was delays in getting new awards and those decisions being made. What I would say is we are starting to see those award decisions move forward, and that was the reason for my comments that— we expect that to improve here in the second quarter and throughout the year.

好吧，謝謝，羅布。環境中肯定存在不確定性，而且它有多種形式。我在準備好的演講中提到的問題是獲得新獎項和做出這些決定的延遲。我想說的是，我們開始看到這些獎項的評選工作正在取得進展，這就是我發表評論的原因——我們預計第二季乃至全年情況都會有所改善。

We are not seeing direct impact from the government's reduction of personnel in our ability to still deliver on programs and get through the milestones that we have on program. We are watching that. Certainly, we want to make sure that the government oversight is sufficient and there, but I also believe there is room for efficiencies. And we expect that, in some ways, the government will be able to continue their work even as they experience less personnel.

我們沒有看到政府裁員對我們繼續執行計劃和實現計劃里程碑的能力產生直接影響。我們正在關注此事。當然，我們希望確保政府的監督充分且到位，但我還認為還有提高效率的空間。我們預計，即使政府人員減少，在某種程度上政府仍能繼續工作。

And finally, I would just say that we are looking toward the budget to provide clarity on the administration's priorities. But what we are hearing is that there is strong alignment to the areas of capability that Northrop provides, and we also are expecting the increases in top-line that I talked about in my prepared remarks. So we'll be watching all of that closely as it unfolds over the coming months.

最後，我只想說，我們期待預算能明確政府的優先事項。但我們聽到的是，諾斯羅普提供的能力領域之間存在著高度的一致性，我們也期待著我在準備好的發言中談到的收入成長。因此，我們將在未來幾個月密切關注事態發展。

Okay, thanks, Kathy. Just a quick one for Ken. On the B-21 EAC adjustment, what is the anticipated cash impact from this? Is it basically the same number, but spread over time?

好的，謝謝，凱西。對 Ken 來說這只是一個簡短的回答。關於 B-21 EAC 調整，預計會產生什麼現金影響？它基本上是相同的數字，但隨時間而分佈嗎？

So the right way to think about the cash impact due to the incremental charge is no material impact to 2025. Of the incremental charge, it will be spread primarily through '26, '27, and '28.

因此，正確看待增量費用對現金的影響的方式是，對 2025 年沒有實質影響。增量費用將主要分攤至 26、27 和 28 年。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

If we can dig a little deeper on B-21, if we peel back the onion, what changed from a quarter ago to now to make you feel like you had to do this now? And I guess that gets at how confident can we be that this is it, right? I mean, I think we've all watched the industry for a while, and it seems like these charges tend to have a tail, and that's the big fear. Are we going to get one of these every year? I mean, how should we think about it and be confident that this is it?

如果我們能夠對 B-21 進行更深入的研究，如果我們剝開洋蔥，那麼從第一季前到現在，發生了什麼變化，讓您覺得現在必須這樣做？我想，這關係到我們對此有多大的信心，對吧？我的意思是，我想我們都已經關注這個行業一段時間了，而且似乎這些指控都有背後的原因，這就是最大的擔憂。我們每年都會得到其中一個嗎？我的意思是，我們應該如何思考這個問題並確信這就是它？

The drivers of the charge were related to a process change, and that process change supports the accelerated production rates that I referenced. And so in that way, it's a very defined change, and we now understand and have the learning from making that change, and that's not something we will need to do again. This positions us to ramp to the quantities needed in full-rate production.

收費的驅動因素與流程變化有關，而流程變化支持了我提到的加速生產力。因此，從這個意義上講，這是一個非常明確的改變，現在我們了解這種改變，並從中吸取了教訓，我們不需要再做這樣的事情了。這使我們能夠達到全速生產所需的數量。

And even as I noted, we can ramp beyond the quantities in the program of record, which is something that we and the government decided was important for the optionality to support the scenarios that they have been looking at to increase the current build rate.

正如我所指出的，我們可以超出計劃中記錄的數量，這是我們和政府認為很重要的一點，因為它具有選擇性，可以支持他們一直在考慮的提高當前建設率的方案。

The second part of the charge that I mentioned is related to the quantity of general procurement materials, as well as the price. And there, we had underestimated the amount of consumption of those materials, as well as the price increase that we are seeing.

我提到的第二部分費用是跟一般採購物料的數量有關，還有價格。我們低估了這些材料的消耗量以及我們所看到的價格上漲。

And so in many ways, this is a reflection of the macroeconomic environment, coupled with the learning that comes through building the aircraft, now having multiple under our belt. And the adjustment this quarter has the benefit now of having those first two lots progressing through production. So we don't expect these learnings to repeat themselves.

因此，從許多方面來說，這反映了宏觀經濟環境，再加上我們在建造飛機過程中獲得的經驗，現在我們已經擁有了多架飛機的經驗。本季的調整有利於前兩批產品順利投入生產。所以我們不希望這些經驗教訓再次發生。

But of course, we've been transparent that there remain both risks and opportunities on the program as we complete the first five LRIP. Most of the change that we have experienced and that have resulted in, now the close to $2 billion of charges, on the program are due to inflationary factors.

但當然，我們已經明確表示，在完成前五個 LRIP 時，該計劃仍然存在風險和機會。我們所經歷的大部分變化以及導致該計劃目前收費近 20 億美元的變化都是由於通貨膨脹因素造成的。

And so we have done our best to execute well on what we can control and at the same time, reflect those macroeconomic risks in our EAC. So we have updated those, but we will continue to monitor and mitigate those inflationary pressures as we experience them.

因此，我們盡最大努力做好我們能夠控制的事情，同時在我們的 EAC 中反映這些宏觀經濟風險。因此，我們已經更新了這些內容，但我們將繼續監測並緩解我們所經歷的通膨壓力。

Got it. Got it. And then maybe as a follow-up on Sentinel, it's another program that's kind of made some headlines. How confident should we feel about the profitability on that, given the potential changes to that program?

知道了。知道了。然後也許作為 Sentinel 的後續，這是另一個成為頭條新聞的項目。考慮到該計劃的潛在變化，我們對其盈利能力有多大信心？

On Sentinel, we continue to progress well through the development phase of the program. And we, as I said, have progressed in design maturation and even testing of the missile. And so we continue to grow in confidence in the design of the system that we are building. We are partnering with the DoD and the Air Force to restructure the program. And as part of that restructuring, we are working with the Air Force on options to reduce the overall cost and schedule on the program and have identified opportunities to them to do so.

在 Sentinel 計畫的開發階段，我們持續取得良好進展。正如我所說，我們在導彈設計成熟度甚至測試方面都取得了進展。因此，我們對正在建構的系統的設計越來越有信心。我們正在與國防部和空軍合作重組該計劃。作為重組的一部分，我們正在與空軍合作，尋找降低專案整體成本和縮短進度的方案，並已為他們找到了這樣做的機會。

What we look at in that restructuring is to ensure that the changes in requirements are adequately reflected in the design, and ultimately in the contract, and we'll be working to do that with the government. And I would just remind you that Sentinel is a cost-plus program, and we have not yet estimated the cost associated with LRIP from a contractual standpoint.

我們在重組中考慮的是確保需求的變化充分反映在設計中，並最終反映在合約中，我們將與政府合作做到這一點。我只是想提醒你，Sentinel 是一個成本加成計劃，我們還沒有從合約的角度估算與 LRIP 相關的成本。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Good morning, Kathy and Ken and Todd, maybe just a broader question, again, starting out with tariffs because it's been a hot topic this morning. How do we think about the tariff impact on the overall Northrop portfolio? And just international relationships, how that changes your potential opportunity set under the current administration?

早安，凱西、肯和陶德，也許這只是一個更廣泛的問題，再次從關稅開始，因為這是今天早上的熱門話題。我們如何看待關稅對諾斯羅普整體投資組合的影響？那麼，就國際關係而言，這如何改變您在現任政府領導下的潛在機會？

So Sheila, let me start with what we believe to be the impact of tariffs on our portfolio. We do directly source a small part of our supply chain, about 5% of our total spend, so less than $1 billion annually, and it's from countries outside of the US, primarily in Europe.

那麼，希拉，讓我先談談我們認為關稅對我們投資組合的影響。我們確實直接採購了我們供應鏈中的一小部分，約占我們總支出的 5%，因此每年不到 10 億美元，而且來自美國以外的國家，主要是歐洲。

When we look at the second and third tiers of our supply chain, we have purchasing agreements in place with the vast majority of those that extend over a long period of time. And we have done an assessment and believe that most of the costs that we might incur, due to trade policy, are incorporated and covered under our contracts with the U.S. government.

當我們檢視供應鏈的第二層和第三層時，我們會發現我們與絕大多數企業都簽訂了長期採購協議。我們已經進行了評估，認為我們因貿易政策而可能產生的大部分成本都已納入我們與美國政府簽訂的合約中並得到涵蓋。

So we do not see, at this point in time, a significant risk to our company, related to the trade policies as we understand them today. We're going to continue to monitor that closely. And we're already taking actions to account for and mitigate the risks that we do see, particularly in availability of certain components that we need for delivering on our program.

因此，就我們目前所理解的貿易政策而言，我們目前並不認為會為我們公司帶來重大風險。我們將繼續密切關注此事。我們已經採取行動來應對和減輕我們所看到的風險，特別是在我們實施計劃所需的某些組件的可用性方面。

Great. And maybe if I could ask one specific question on MS margins, just at 12.9% in the quarter. They lagged the midpoint of your guidance of mid-14s. How do we think about the drivers of that? You mentioned investments and mix of microelectronics. So how do we think about the improvement in MS profitability?

偉大的。也許我可以問一個關於微軟利潤率的具體問題，本季的利潤率僅為 12.9%。他們落後於你指導的 14 秒中段。我們如何看待這現象的驅動因素？您提到了微電子的投資和組合。那我們如何看待微軟獲利能力的提升呢？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Sheila. So as we mentioned in my prepared remarks, we made an investment that would generate significant value over the long-term while repaying the initial investment cost, plus our required rate of return. That was known. So we knew of that when we put our guidance forward at the mid-14% range.

當然。謝謝你的提問，希拉。因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們進行了一項投資，該投資將在長期內產生巨大的價值，同時償還初始投資成本以及我們所需的回報率。這是眾所周知的。因此，當我們提出 14% 中間範圍的指導時，我們就知道了這一點。

So as we think forward with Mission Systems, what is driving the margin profile in the future is the ramp, particularly on their mature accretive margin programs throughout the year, as well as Mission Systems is making significant progress on efficiencies in the business.

因此，當我們展望任務系統時，未來推動利潤率上升的是其全年成熟的增值利潤計劃，而且任務系統在業務效率方面也取得了重大進展。

And so as we harvest those efficiencies, it will impact our rates, which then flow through to the programs driving that improved margin profile in the second half of the year.

因此，當我們獲得這些效率時，它將影響我們的利率，然後這些利率將流向推動下半年利潤率改善的計劃。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning. Ken, are you reiterating the previous free cash flow targets for 2026, 2027, and 2028?

嘿，早安。肯，您是否重申了先前 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年的自由現金流目標？

Yes. So let me touch on that – we are, at this moment, holding the guidance ranges that we've provided over the multi-year guidance ranges for cash flow. And we are absolutely focused on performance and rationalizing investments to execute within those ranges, Scott.

是的。所以讓我來談談這一點——目前，我們維持著我們在多年現金流指導範圍內提供的指導範圍。我們絕對專注於績效和合理化投資以在這些範圍內執行，斯科特。

Okay. And 2028 is still good for the $4 billion? Or --?

好的。那麼 2028 年對這 40 億美元來說還算合適嗎？或者--？

Yes. At this point, we're holding all guidance.

是的。目前，我們持有所有指導。

Okay. And then just on this, for 2026 and 2027, would it be reasonable to think that you're biased toward the lower end of the prior range, given these extra B-21 costs or are there mitigating offsets that we should be mindful of?

好的。然後就這一點而言，對於 2026 年和 2027 年，考慮到這些額外的 B-21 成本，您是否有理由認為您偏向於之前範圍的低端，或者是否存在我們應該注意的緩解抵消措施？

The majority of the impact is '26, '27, and '28, but I want to highlight the fact that we, are over those periods, right, when we put the ranges together, we account for various risks and opportunities, and we are all working and executing to mitigate risk, maximize opportunities to be within those ranges.

大部分影響是在 26、27 和 28 年，但我想強調的是，我們正處於這些時期，當我們把這些範圍放在一起時，我們會考慮各種風險和機遇，我們都在努力和執行以減輕風險，最大限度地利用機會以保持在這些範圍內。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。

I'm not sure how specific it's possible to get on B-21, but if we think about the -- quantifying the portion of the charge related to the process charge versus the portion related to higher cost. And also, would the process charge have been made if there was not an intention to create some optionality about moving to a higher production rate?

我不確定 B-21 的具體細節能有多具體，但如果我們考慮一下——量化與工藝費用相關的費用部分與與更高成本相關的費用部分。此外，如果沒有打算為提高生產力創造一些可選性，還會收取工藝費嗎？

So Seth, I can't quantify because of the classification of the program what relates exactly to the process change versus the procurement material, but the first is larger than the second, which is why from the disclosure, we talk about them in that order.

因此，塞思，由於程序的分類，我無法量化與流程變更和採購材料究竟相關的內容，但前者大於後者，這就是為什麼從披露中我們按順序討論它們。

And in response to your question of whether we would have made that process change, if not for the need to reduce risk as we scale to the program of record, and then ultimately to position us to grow beyond the program of record, we would not have made those changes at this time, if not for those considerations.

關於您提出的問題，如果不是因為在擴大記錄計劃規模時需要降低風險，並最終讓我們能夠超越記錄計劃，我們是否會做出這一流程改變，如果不是出於這些考慮，我們現在就不會做出這些改變。

But we are glad that we have made them because that learning only would have compounded if we would have waited later in the program and had a higher production volume. We also believe that providing this optionality to the government now, as they are looking at force structure, was an important enabler to their derisking of options beyond the program of record. So I don't at all regret that we did this and that we did it now, and it is a good thing for the program overall to have this learning behind us.

但我們很高興我們做到了，因為如果我們在計劃後期等待並且有更高的產量，這種學習只會更加豐富。我們也認為，當政府審視部隊結構時，為其提供這種選擇權，是降低現有計畫之外的選擇風險的重要推動因素。所以我一點也不後悔我們做過這件事，也不後悔我們現在這麼做，對於整個計畫來說，獲得這樣的教訓是件好事。

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Just -- I hate to do it -- but to stay on B-21. Kathy, was the process change at the request of the customer or working with them to ramp faster and ultimately to deliver above the current stated volume? And then just on the consumption of material, was that -- I think you called out that you had more consumption material. Was that more just kind of thinking about scrap and waste in the process?

只是 — — 我不想這麼做 — — 但還是繼續留在 B-21。凱西，這個流程的改變是應客戶的要求而進行的，還是與他們合作以加快生產速度並最終實現超出目前規定產量的交付？然後僅就材料的消耗而言，我想您說過您有更多的消耗材料。這是否只是對過程中廢料和浪費的一種思考？

Yes. So we did make the decision jointly with the Air Force to make the process changes. And as I said, it really was to reduce risk, as we scale to the program of record, and to provide for options beyond the program of record. The Air Force is continuing to evaluate those options, and we'll look for more information as the budget request is finalized.

是的。因此，我們確實與空軍共同做出了改變流程的決定。正如我所說的，這確實是為了降低風險，因為我們會擴大記錄計劃，並提供超出記錄計劃的選項。空軍正在繼續評估這些選擇，我們將在預算請求最終確定後尋找更多資訊。

In part of your question, you also are asking about whether we saw some of the material cost increases as the result of scrap and rework. To some degree, it's really about the consumption of the material necessary in the build process, but some of that absolutely is the amount of scrap and waste that we have in the process and the estimates that we made on that early in the program versus the actual performance.

在您的問題中，您還詢問我們是否看到由於廢品和返工而導致的材料成本增加。在某種程度上，這實際上與建造過程中所需材料的消耗有關，但其中一部分絕對是我們在建造過程中產生的廢料和浪費的數量，以及我們在項目早期對此做出的估計與實際性能的對比。

Got it. Helpful. And just if I may, I think previously, you called out maybe $200 million in supply costs that have been removed. I mean, how are you thinking about that number, maybe with the evolution of tariffs and potentially tighter access to materials. Does that $200 million in costs continue to stay out of the system you think?

知道了。很有幫助。如果可以的話，我想您之前提到可能已經取消了 2 億美元的供應成本。我的意思是，您是如何看待這個數字的，也許是由於關稅的變化以及材料獲取可能變得更加嚴格。您認為這 2 億美元的成本是否會繼續留在系統之外？

So we've talked about $200 million enterprise-wide of cost efficiencies, and we do see a path to keep that cost out of the system and continue to build on it. We are driving cost out, not just through supplier engagement in constructing more efficient supplier utilization and pricing, but also through things like facility optimization, the implementation of our digital ecosystem, which is driving rework out of our system. And so those things are the bigger driver of that $200 million cost efficiency, but certainly supplier efficiency is part of it, and we don't expect that to be impacted by tariffs.

因此，我們討論了整個企業 2 億美元的成本效率，並且我們確實找到了一種將這筆成本排除在系統之外並繼續在此基礎上發展的途徑。我們正在降低成本，不僅透過供應商參與建立更有效率的供應商利用率和定價，而且還透過設施優化、實施數位生態系統等方式來消除系統中的返工。因此，這些因素是實現 2 億美元成本效率的更大驅動力，但供應商效率肯定是其中的一部分，我們預計這不會受到關稅的影響。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

On the B-21, if we look beyond the five initial LRIPs here, I guess, first, the changes that you're talking about and the costs that are coming through, should we expect any impact in the next 19 airplanes, which you've talked about before?

關於 B-21，如果我們看一下這裡的五個初始 LRIP，我想，首先，您所談論的變化和即將產生的成本，我們是否應該預期會對您之前談到的接下來的 19 架飛機產生任何影響？

And then also, as you think about larger program of record. I mean, the Air Force has talked about 100 airplanes, but if I think back, I can't remember in the last 30 years that we saw a major aircraft procurement program actually end up increasing beyond the initial program of record. So is there somewhere we would see that? Have there been announcements? Or should we expect something in the budget?

然後，當您考慮更大的記錄程序時。我的意思是，空軍已經談論過 100 架飛機，但如果我回想起來，我不記得在過去 30 年裡我們看到過一個主要的飛機採購計劃最終實際上超過了最初記錄的計劃。那我們可以在什麼地方看到它呢？有公告了嗎？或者我們應該在預算中期待一些東西嗎？

Yes, Doug. So let me answer the first part of your question first about the NTE unit. So bottom line upfront, we continue to expect the NTE aircraft to be profitable. The loss largely relates to those higher manufacturing costs that I talked about from the process change we made and that near-term disruption in the associated costs will not extend into the NTE units. And we actually expect these changes will positively impact our ability to deliver the NTE units profitably.

是的，道格。因此，讓我先回答您關於 NTE 單元的問題的第一部分。因此，從根本上來說，我們仍然預計 NTE 飛機將實現盈利。損失主要與我談到的因流程改變而導致的製造成本上升有關，而且相關成本的短期中斷不會延伸到 NTE 部門。我們實際上預計這些變化將對我們盈利地交付 NTE 單位的能力產生積極影響。

The increases in projected cost and quantity of general procurement materials could negatively affect profitability of the units. So when you think of the NTE aircraft overall, we do still expect those to be profitable.

一般採購材料預計成本和數量的增加可能會對單位的獲利能力產生負面影響。因此，當您考慮 NTE 飛機整體時，我們仍然預計它們能夠盈利。

With regard to the Air Force messaging around increasing the quantity of B-21, and potentially the rate at which they are being built, that has been spoken about in Congressional testimony, particularly from the users of B-21, think the combatant command that is looking toward what they would like to have for completing their mission, and there have been discussions about raising the quantity. And so that is the source that you can look to, in open source, to reflect that increased demand signal that we've been talking about.

關於空軍關於增加 B-21 數量以及可能加快其建造速度的消息，國會證詞中已經提到了這一點，特別是 B-21 的用戶認為，作戰司令部正在考慮他們希望擁有什麼來完成他們的任務，並且已經討論了增加數量的問題。因此，這就是您可以在開源中找到的來源，以反映我們一直在談論的增加的需求訊號。

And then just as a follow-on, switching over to Defense Systems. You've talked about IBCS and the $10 billion potential international demand. Can you talk about how that's proceeding and how you see that now? When we should see that impact? It seems quite substantial and positive.

然後作為後續，切換到防禦系統。您談到了 IBCS 和 100 億美元的潛在國際需求。您能談談事情進展如何以及您現在如何看待這件事嗎？我們什麼時候能看到這種影響？這看起來相當實質和積極。

Yes. IBCS is being fielded for the U.S. Army, including expansion of mission to include the defense of Guam. We also have Poland, as you know, that is expanding their use of IBCS. We first started with their mid-range air defense, and now we're moving to their near-range air defense.

是的。IBCS 正在為美國陸軍部署，其任務範圍擴大到保衛關島。如您所知，波蘭也在擴大 IBCS 的使用。我們首先從他們的中程防空開始，現在我們正在轉向他們的近程防空。

And we've talked before about a dozen countries who have expressed interest in procuring IBCS that are in various stages of maturity in the pipeline, but we are seeing great interest there. And we continue to add additional countries that are looking to IBCS as the baseline for their architecture.

我們之前曾談過，有十幾個國家表示有興趣採購處於不同成熟階段的 IBCS，但我們看到他們對此表現出極大的興趣。我們將繼續增加將 IBCS 視為其架構基線的其他國家。

We also, as we have responded to Golden Dome’s request for information, incorporated the capability of IBCS because its ability to integrate sensors and shooters is absolutely at the core of part of the underlayer for missile defense for the homeland in the U.S. as well.

正如我們回應金頂飛彈防禦局的資訊請求一樣，我們也納入了 IBCS 的能力，因為它整合感測器和射手的能力絕對是美國本土飛彈防禦底層的核心部分。

Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的馬特‧艾克斯 (Matt Akers)。

Kathy, you had mentioned at a conference in the quarter that there had been some instances of contracts that maybe have taken a little bit longer to get signed during the quarter. Can you give us kind of a quick update on that—Is that something you’re still seeing or has that dynamic improved a little bit?

凱西，您在本季的一次會議上提到，有些合約在本季可能需要更長的時間才能簽署。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下這方面的最新進展？您是否仍然看到這種情況，或者這種動態是否有所改善？

We have not seen those contracts get awarded yet. We are seeing them progress, through the process of being reviewed, and we hope ultimately decided and communicated. So we are holding to the expectation that we will see some of those awards start to happen this quarter and certainly in the second half of the year.

我們尚未看到這些合約被授予。我們看到他們在審查過程中取得了進展，我們希望最終能夠做出決定並進行溝通。因此，我們期望本季度，尤其是下半年，一些獎項能夠開始頒發。

Yeah. Got it. And I guess any color you can add on what those contracts are, specifically, is that focused on one area of your business? Or I guess, is there anything else you can get to?

是的。知道了。我想您可以補充這些合約的具體內容，具體來說，它們是否集中在您業務的某個領域？或者我猜，你還能得到其他什麼嗎？

There are actually examples in all four segments of our business. A large aircraft program in our Aeronautics business, multiple Space awards in restricted, particularly communications. We have in Mission Systems some restricted opportunities that we are anticipating will get awarded over the summer now. And in Defense, it's largely munitions, where we have a munitions contract we expected award in the quarter and now are expecting to happen in the second or third quarter.

實際上，我們業務的所有四個部分都有例子。我們的航空業務中有一個大型飛機項目，在限制領域，特別是通訊領域獲得了多個太空獎項。我們在任務系統中有一些受限制的機會，我們預計這些機會將在夏季獲得授予。在國防領域，主要是軍火，我們有一個軍火合同，預計在本季度授予，現在預計將在第二季或第三季授予。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Maybe for Ken, I'm not sure. In January, I knew you were looking for flat year-on-year sales growth in the quarter and then in February, you updated that, and then you came in below it. And I hear you on the EAC for the B-21, and you sort of alluded to some slowing progress in getting orders under contract, but it doesn't sound like those quarters are under contract yet, and you're looking for another decline year-on-year in the second quarter. So I guess what gives the confidence for that mid-teens acceleration you need in the second half of the year if the bookings aren't in your hand and you've kind of seen what you've seen in the first quarter?

謝謝。也許對肯來說是這樣，但我不確定。一月份，我知道您期望本季銷售額同比增長持平，但二月份您更新了這一預期，結果卻低於預期。我聽說您談到了 B-21 的 EAC，您暗示合同訂單的進展有些放緩，但聽起來這些季度還沒有簽訂合同，而且您預計第二季度的同比訂單將再次下降。所以我想，如果訂單還沒有到手，而且你已經看到了第一季的情況，那麼是什麼讓你對下半年所需的十幾歲的加速增長有信心呢？

Yeah. And so -- thank you for the question. I'll put it into three buckets in terms of what's driving the ramp in terms of the second half of the year. The first one is the large awards we received at the end of 2024 and those fall in the lines of TACAMO and IBCS, as well as international activities early around ground-based radars. Again, I'll reemphasize that's in our backlog.

是的。所以——謝謝你的提問。我將根據下半年推動經濟成長的因素分為三類。第一個是我們在 2024 年底獲得的巨額獎項，這些獎項屬於 TACAMO 和 IBCS 領域，以及早期圍繞地面雷達的國際活動。再次強調，這是我們的積壓工作。

And so just from a natural timing progression, when you think about ramp-up and timing of materials, that will happen in the second half of the year.

因此，從自然的時間進程來看，當您考慮材料的增加和時間安排時，這將在下半年發生。

And then when we think about the natural, as part of our original assumptions, in terms of just our current backlog growing, we have planned ramps across restricted airborne sensors. We have planned ramps in terms of just timing on Sentinel. Our weapon systems across multiple activities, like AARGM and Stand-in Attack Weapon, as well as timing on Strike, and that's just a few examples. And again, that sales growth is driven by backlog.

然後，當我們考慮自然因素時，作為我們最初假設的一部分，就我們目前的積壓工作不斷增長而言，我們已經計劃在限制機載感測器上建造坡道。我們已經針對 Sentinel 的時間表制定了計劃。我們的武器系統適用於多種活動，例如 AARGM 和替身攻擊武器，以及定時打擊，這只是幾個例子。再次強調，銷售成長是由積壓訂單推動的。

And the other piece would be, which is primarily Space-- is new competitive awards, and –we do believe we're well positioned for those, and we do expect to hear about those in the second quarter, and then that's what drives the remaining piece of the growth profile.

另一部分主要是太空——新的競爭獎項，我們確實相信我們已經為這些獎項做好了準備，我們確實希望在第二季度聽到有關這些獎項的消息，然後這將推動剩餘部分的成長。

So it wasn't anything in the quarter that was turned off, there was no stop works or customer decision points that were turned off, It was simply a timing of receipt of contracts?

所以這不是本季發生的任何事，沒有停止工作或關閉客戶決策點，這只是收到合約的時間問題？

Yes, it's just timing and then around the confidence piece is, when we think about it from a working capital and our inventory, once those gets awarded, we are able to reduce that working capital. So it's associated sales real time, which also gives us confidence in our profile.

是的，這只是時機問題，然後圍繞著信心部分，當我們從營運資金和庫存的角度考慮時，一旦獲得獎勵，我們就可以減少營運資金。因此它與即時銷售相關，這也讓我們對我們的形象充滿信心。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ken Herbert。

Hey, Kathy, you called out I think, 14% of sales internationally in the first quarter. With all the strong bookings, –are you -- how should we think about now maybe any upward momentum on international, either as a mix in '25 or just absolute growth off those sales this year?

嘿，凱西，我認為你說的第一季國際銷售額佔 14%。鑑於如此強勁的預訂量，我們現在應該如何看待國際市場的任何上升勢頭，是作為 2025 年的混合增長，還是僅僅是今年銷售額的絕對增長？

We are starting to see a significant pipeline of demand translate into firm international bookings. I did talk about our international sales being up 11% in the quarter, perhaps even more interesting for the long term is that our book-to-bill in 2024 was 1.4 times and it was 1.45 times in the first quarter.

我們開始看到大量需求轉化為穩定的國際預訂量。我確實談到了我們本季的國際銷售額成長了 11%，從長遠來看，更有趣的是，我們 2024 年的訂單出貨比為 1.4 倍，而第一季為 1.45 倍。

So we see it coming across a number of areas. We've talked already about IBCS in a dozen-or-so countries that are expressing interest. We didn't talk as much, but certainly significant interest in AARGM, and Stand-in Attack Weapon. Both AARGM and AARGM-Extended Range have been approved for export to a large number of countries, and we are in various processes of getting those awards on contract. I mentioned one in my prepared remarks. And then we also are continuing to see growth on aircraft platforms like E-2D and Triton. So it's broad-based in terms of where that international business is coming from. And yes, we see a significant portion of it in our Defense Systems business. They have had double-digit growth in international. And with the pipeline that we have in their portfolio, in particular, we expect that to continue.

我們看到它出現在許多領域。我們已經與十幾個表示有興趣的國家討論了 IBCS。我們並沒有談論太多，但對 AARGM 和替身攻擊武器確實很感興趣。AARGM 和 AARGM-Extended Range 都已獲准出口到許多國家，我們正在透過各種方式獲得這些合約。我在準備好的發言中提到過一個。我們也看到 E-2D 和 Triton 等飛機平台繼續成長。因此，從國際業務的來源來看，其基礎是廣泛的。是的，我們在國防系統業務中看到了很大一部分。他們在國際上實現了兩位數的成長。特別是考慮到我們在其投資組合中擁有的管道，我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

Thank you. Have your assumptions at all changed on F-35 international sales this year, or into 2026, as a result of any of the more recent commentary on that program?

謝謝。由於最近對該計劃的評論，您對今年或 2026 年 F-35 國際銷售的假設是否有所改變？

Our expectations have not changed. The communications that we have had with the prime are to continue producing at our max rate, which is 156 aircraft. That's what we're on contract to do, and so that's what we continue to do. And so we don't anticipate any change.

我們的期望沒有改變。我們與主要負責人的溝通是繼續以最大速率生產，即 156 架飛機。這就是我們合約中要做的事情，所以我們會繼續這樣做。因此我們預計不會有任何變化。

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的大衛‧施特勞斯。

Kathy, one follow-up on B-21, and then one follow-up to that. On B-21, this process change that you've put in place to allow for accelerated production or higher quantities, whatever it may be, isn't this something the Air Force should pay for? And will they ultimately pay for it, it's just they can't pay for it, given the contract structure that you're working under? That's my first one. And then second one, if you could, NGAD, F-47, could you talk about what role, if any, you have on the Boeing aircraft? Thanks.

凱西，關於 B-21 有一個後續問題，然後是該問題的後續問題。對於 B-21，你們為加速生產或提高產量而實施的這項流程改變，無論是什麼，難道不是空軍應該支付的費用嗎？他們最終會支付這筆費用嗎？考慮到你們所簽訂的合約結構，他們根本無力支付？這是我的第一個。然後第二個問題，如果可以的話，NGAD、F-47，您能談談您在波音飛機上扮演什麼角色嗎？謝謝。

Sure. So look, we made the decision jointly with the Air Force to make the change. And we believe in the long run, it's not only in the best interest of national security and providing the Department of Defense the options that they need to have a force structure that meets their expanding requirements, but also for the profitability of the program over the long haul.

當然。所以，我們與空軍共同做出了這個改變的決定。我們相信，從長遠來看，這不僅符合國家安全的最佳利益，並為國防部提供所需的選擇，使其擁有滿足不斷增長的需求的部隊結構，而且也有利於該項目的長期盈利。

And that's the decision framework that we operate within, is to think about what is needed by the nation and our shareholders. Not just each quarter, but over the long duration that this program will be adding value.

這就是我們運作的決策框架，即考慮國家和股東需要什麼。不僅每個季度，而且在很長一段時間內，該計劃都會增加價值。

In regard to our role on NGAD, given the classification of the program, we can't disclose any information specific to the program. But you know that we are a merchant supplier of mission systems. And we remain fully committed to supplying those advanced capabilities for government customers and primes. And that our sensors are easily scaled and reconfigurable for a wide application across the variety of platforms and domains and I'll simply leave it at that.

關於我們在 NGAD 中的角色，鑑於該計劃的分類，我們不能透露任何有關該計劃的具體資訊。但您知道我們是任務系統的商業供應商。我們將繼續全力致力於為政府客戶和主要客戶提供這些先進的功能。我們的感測器可以輕鬆擴展和重新配置，以廣泛應用於各種平台和領域，我就不多說了。

Okay. And any update on timing on F/A-XX?

好的。F/A-XX 的時間有任何更新嗎？

We -- I do not have an update to provide you. The Navy remains committed to the program and we do expect to hear something soon.

我們—我沒有最新消息可以提供給您。海軍仍然致力於該計劃，我們期待很快聽到消息。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

米庫斯（Scott Mikus），Melius Research。

Kathy, quick question. Defense Systems, it looks like there was an explosion at a plant in Utah that produces solid rocket motors. So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about, that in terms of the outlook at DS. Is there any potential impact to Stand-in Attack Weapon or AARGM-ER?

凱西，快速提問。防禦系統公司表示，猶他州一家生產固體火箭引擎的工廠似乎發生了爆炸。所以我只是想知道您如何看待 DS 的前景。這對替代攻擊武器或 AARGM-ER 有潛在影響嗎？

Yes. Thank you for the question. It is actually part of our Space business. This is where we build the larger solid rocket motors, not the tactical ones that go into missiles. And so it was in Promontory, Utah.

是的。謝謝你的提問。它實際上是我們太空業務的一部分。我們在這裡製造更大的固體火箭發動機，而不是導彈中的戰術火箭發動機。猶他州普羅蒙特里的情況就是這樣。

And it was a building where we produce an ingredient to our solid rocket motor propellant, but we have other sources of supply outside of Northrop Grumman that we'll be able to provide us that ingredient. So we do not expect any impact to any of our programs.

這是我們生產固體火箭發動機推進劑原料的廠房，但除了諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司以外，我們還有其他供應來源，能夠為我們提供該原料。因此我們預計我們的任何項目都不會受到任何影響。

We've specifically been asked about Sentinel because Promontory is a production site for those solid rocket motors, and there is not expected to be any impact to Sentinel or any other program. And again, it would be in our Space business, not Defense Systems, so there's absolutely no correlation to programs like AARGM, AARGM-ER or Stand-in Attack Weapon.

我們特別被問到 Sentinel 的問題，因為 Promontory 是這些固體火箭引擎的生產基地，預計不會對 Sentinel 或任何其他項目產生任何影響。再說一次，它屬於我們的太空業務，而不是防禦系統，因此與 AARGM、AARGM-ER 或替身攻擊武器等項目絕對沒有任何關聯。

Okay. Very helpful. Second question, DoD has highlighted a lot of need for investment in space. So is there a possibility of the classified space program that was canceled to end up being restarted under this new administration?

好的。非常有幫助。第二個問題，國防部強調了對太空領域投資的大量需求。那麼，被取消的機密太空計畫有可能在新政府上台後重新啟動嗎？

You know, certainly, the requirements are what drive the need for development and fielding of capabilities. And so to the extent that the requirement has not gone away, we do believe that programs could be re-evaluated and started under this administration to meet those requirements. Our current year expectations don't reflect that, but certainly we continue to provide information to the government to help them understand their options space for meeting those requirements.

你知道，當然，需求是推動能力開發和部署需求的動力。因此，只要該要求尚未取消，我們確實相信，本屆政府可以重新評估並啟動相關項目，以滿足這些要求。我們今年的預期並沒有反映出這一點，但我們肯定會繼續向政府提供信息，幫助他們了解滿足這些要求的選擇空間。

We're going to have to leave it there.

我們得把它留在那裡。

Great. Well, let me wrap up by thanking you for your participation in today's call. As you sensed, we are optimistic about the continued strong demand for our products, the growing global defense budgets that we see, and the solid execution of our team across the majority of the business. And while we are disappointed with the B-21 adjustment this quarter, the underlying business fundamentals in our company are strong, and we continue to de-risk the B-21 program through the investments that we're making.

偉大的。好吧，最後我要感謝您參加今天的電話會議。正如您所感覺到的，我們對我們產品的持續強勁需求、我們看到的不斷增長的全球國防預算以及我們團隊在大部分業務中的穩健執行感到樂觀。雖然我們對本季的 B-21 調整感到失望，但我們公司的基本業務基礎強勁，我們將繼續透過正在進行的投資來降低 B-21 計畫的風險。

So for the remainder of the year, we're going to continue to focus on adding to our backlog, improving profitability in our business segments, and generating the cash that fuels our deployment plan. We look forward to giving you another update in the second quarter and want to thank you again for joining today's call.

因此，在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將繼續專注於增加積壓訂單，提高業務部門的獲利能力，並產生支持我們部署計畫的現金。我們期待在第二季度為您提供另一份更新信息，並再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。