諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2022 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Norma, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to your host today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Treasurer and Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 Northrop Grumman 的 2022 年第四季度和年終電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。我叫諾瑪，今天我將是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）。現在，我想將會議轉交給今天的主持人，財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Todd Ernst 先生。恩斯特先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Norma. Good morning, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. We refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted on our IR web page this morning. Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlook for 2023 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

謝謝，諾瑪。早上好，歡迎來到 Northrop Grumman 的 2022 年第四季度電話會議。我們參考了今天早上發佈在我們 IR 網頁上的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。在我們開始之前，今天電話會議上討論的事項，包括 2023 年及以後的指導和展望，反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用信息做出的判斷。根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款，它們構成前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些。這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際結果存在重大差異。

Today's call includes non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. On today's call are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

今天的電話會議包括非 GAAP 財務措施，這些措施與我們在收益發布中的 GAAP 結果相一致。我們的主席、首席執行官兼總裁 Kathy Warden 出席了今天的電話會議；和我們的首席財務官 Dave Keffer。在這個時候，我想把電話轉給凱西。凱西？

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The Northrop Grumman team delivered another year of strong performance in 2022, positioning our company for the coming year and beyond. A growing global demand environment and the team's success in capitalizing on competitive opportunities drove exceptional bookings.

謝謝，托德。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司團隊在 2022 年再次取得強勁業績，為來年及以後的公司定位。不斷增長的全球需求環境和團隊在利用競爭機會方面的成功推動了出色的預訂。

Top line growth accelerated throughout the year, driven in part by improving labor trends. I'll note that we set our sales and EPS guidance ranges at the beginning of 2022, and even in a dynamic macro environment, we navigated the challenges to deliver at or above the high end of those ranges, and then importantly, to deliver capability for our customers.

全年收入增長加速，部分原因是勞動力趨勢改善。我會注意到，我們在 2022 年初設定了我們的銷售和 EPS 指導範圍，即使在動態的宏觀環境中，我們也應對挑戰以達到或超過這些範圍的高端，然後重要的是，提供能力為我們的客戶。

This performance highlights our solid operating execution, our ability to win new business and the alignment of Northrop Grumman's portfolio to our customers' priorities. We enter 2023 with a backlog of more than 2x our annual sales. This strong backlog, along with increasing demand and rising global defense budget supports our expectations for continued growth.

這一業績凸顯了我們穩健的運營執行力、我們贏得新業務的能力以及諾斯羅普格魯曼公司的產品組合與客戶優先事項的一致性。進入 2023 年，我們的積壓訂單是年銷售額的 2 倍多。這種大量積壓，加上不斷增長的需求和不斷增加的全球國防預算，支持了我們對持續增長的預期。

Given this and supported by robust headcount growth, we have increased our 2023 sales guidance range from our October outlook. We are projecting solid segment margin performance that takes into consideration inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, consistent with the expectations we outlined on the October call. And we expect a greater than 20% compound annual growth in our multiyear cash flow outlook that supports continued investments in the business and significant returns of capital to shareholders.

鑑於此並在強勁的員工人數增長的支持下，我們將 2023 年的銷售指導範圍從 10 月份的展望中上調了。考慮到通脹壓力和供應鏈中斷，我們預測部門利潤率表現穩健，與我們在 10 月份的電話會議上概述的預期一致。我們預計多年現金流前景的複合年增長率將超過 20%，這將支持對業務的持續投資，並為股東帶來可觀的資本回報。

Before providing more details on our outlook, I'm going to highlight a few notable achievements from the previous year that underscore the tenets of our long-term strategy and illustrate our positioning for the future. In 2022, the James Webb Space Telescope proved its status as the world's most powerful space telescope and an engineering marvel. It achieved full operational status, shared first images in July and continues to discover and inspire with its incredible insights into distinct galaxies. This project is just one example of the technology innovation and leadership our team brings to our customers. And it has provided an excellent platform for attracting talent to our industry and our company.

在提供有關我們前景的更多細節之前，我將重點介紹去年取得的一些顯著成就，這些成就強調了我們長期戰略的宗旨，並說明了我們對未來的定位。 2022 年，詹姆斯韋伯太空望遠鏡證明了其作為世界上最強大的太空望遠鏡和工程奇蹟的地位。它達到了全面運行狀態，在 7 月分享了第一張圖像，並繼續以其對不同星系的令人難以置信的洞察力來發現和激發靈感。該項目只是我們團隊為客戶帶來的技術創新和領導力的一個例子。它為我們的行業和公司吸引人才提供了一個極好的平台。

In 2022, we continued to win new competitive awards across the company, achieving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.07. Two notable new awards are the space development agencies tracking and transport layers. As our customers look to expand their resilient national security space capabilities, these programs leverage our advanced space solutions for low earth orbit and showcase our ability to compete and win programs across a range of missions. We also completed over 40 successful launch and space missions in the year, exemplifying our end-to-end capabilities in the space market and our ability to perform at scale.

2022年，我們繼續在全公司贏得新的競爭獎項，訂單出貨比達到1.07。兩個值得注意的新獎項是空間開發機構跟踪和傳輸層。隨著我們的客戶希望擴大其有彈性的國家安全空間能力，這些項目利用我們先進的近地軌道空間解決方案，展示我們在一系列任務中競爭和贏得項目的能力。我們還在這一年中成功完成了 40 多次發射和太空任務，證明了我們在太空市場的端到端能力和大規模執行的能力。

Further, our solid rocket boosters helped propel NASA's base launch system as part of the Artemis 1 mission with the largest human-rated solid rocket boosters ever built. We also received a $2 billion award for GEM 63 solid rocket boosters in support of Amazon's Project Kuiper. Together, SLS and Kuiper validate the robust investments that we've made in solid rocket motor capabilities.

此外，我們的固體火箭助推器幫助推動了 NASA 的基地發射系統，作為 Artemis 1 任務的一部分，它擁有有史以來最大的載人級固體火箭助推器。我們還獲得了 20 億美元的 GEM 63 固體火箭助推器獎勵，用於支持亞馬遜的柯伊伯項目。 SLS 和 Kuiper 一起驗證了我們在固體火箭發動機能力方面所做的穩健投資。

We also delivered advanced architectures that integrate sensors to provide unprecedented situational awareness for our customers. One example is our IBCS solution. After successful testing in the fourth quarter, IBCS is poised to transition from LRIP to full-rate production in 2023. IBCS integrate systems that weren't designed to work together, creating a seamless air and missile defense network and allowing customers to better utilize their defense assets. This capability is needed more than ever to address advanced threats and it's one where we've seen a significant increase in interest across our global customer base with 10 additional countries expressing interest in obtaining this system.

我們還提供了集成傳感器的高級架構，為我們的客戶提供前所未有的態勢感知。一個例子是我們的 IBCS 解決方案。在第四季度成功測試後，IBCS 準備在 2023 年從 LRIP 過渡到全速生產。IBCS 集成了無法協同工作的系統，創建了一個無縫的防空和導彈防禦網絡，並允許客戶更好地利用他們的國防資產。比以往任何時候都更需要這種能力來應對高級威脅，我們已經看到全球客戶群對這一能力的興趣顯著增加，另外 10 個國家/地區表示有興趣獲得該系統。

We continue to keep our focus on innovating and leveraging our strong position in advanced technology. This includes the development of a new radar for the F-35. This radar is capable of defeating current and projected adversarial air and surface threats and is compatible with variants of the F-35 aircraft. And we capped off a strong year with the historic unveiling of the B-21 Raider. The B-21 is a multifunctional platform with unmatched range, stealth and survivability, and it will be the backbone of future U.S. air power for decades to come.

我們繼續專注於創新和利用我們在先進技術方面的強大地位。這包括為 F-35 開發新型雷達。該雷達能夠擊敗當前和預計的敵對空中和地面威脅，並與 F-35 飛機的變體兼容。我們以 B-21 Raider 的歷史性揭幕結束了強勁的一年。 B-21 是一個多功能平台，具有無與倫比的射程、隱身性和生存能力，它將成為美國未來幾十年空中力量的支柱。

We continue to perform well on the program and remain on track for first flight later this year. As the program transitions into low rate initial production, we are working to address macroeconomic conditions, especially related to inflation and their impact on material, suppliers and labor. Importantly, I want to highlight that our B-21 unit cost projections remain below the government's independent cost estimates. The program has strong support from the U.S. Air Force, Congress and our suppliers.

我們繼續在該計劃中表現出色，並有望在今年晚些時候進行首飛。隨著該計劃過渡到低速初始生產，我們正在努力解決宏觀經濟狀況，尤其是與通貨膨脹及其對材料、供應商和勞動力的影響有關的問題。重要的是，我想強調的是，我們對 B-21 的單位成本預測仍低於政府的獨立成本估算。該計劃得到了美國空軍、國會和我們供應商的大力支持。

And in the words of Secretary Austin from last month's rollout, "This aircraft is proof of the department's commitment to building advanced capabilities that will fortify America's ability to deter aggression today, and in the future." Our 2022 achievements underscore the breadth of our portfolio across a wide range of domains and technologies and the strong performance of the entire Northrop Grumman team.

用奧斯汀國務卿在上個月首次亮相時的話來說，“這架飛機證明了國防部致力於建設先進能力的承諾，這些能力將加強美國今天和未來阻止侵略的能力。”我們在 2022 年取得的成就凸顯了我們在廣泛領域和技術中的產品組合的廣度，以及整個 Northrop Grumman 團隊的強勁表現。

As we look forward, defense budgets are on the rise, and we see our global customers continuing to seek proven solutions to address rapidly evolving and increasingly sophisticated threats. We are meeting their urgent needs in areas such as air and missile defense solutions, medium and large caliber ammunitions and armaments, advanced radar capabilities and global surveillance to name just a few. And we are partnering to expand our opportunity set and positioning our international business for future growth. We clearly saw increased demand in 2022, and we continue to expect to grow our international business over the next several years.

展望未來，國防預算正在增加，我們看到我們的全球客戶繼續尋求經過驗證的解決方案來應對快速發展和日益複雜的威脅。我們正在滿足他們在防空和導彈防禦解決方案、大中口徑彈藥和武器、先進雷達能力和全球監視等領域的迫切需求，僅舉幾例。我們正在合作擴大我們的機會集，並為我們的國際業務定位以實現未來增長。我們清楚地看到 2022 年的需求增加，我們繼續期望在未來幾年內發展我們的國際業務。

In the U.S., we are encouraged by the continued strong support for National Security, including overwhelming bipartisan support for a 10% spending increase in the fiscal year 2023 defense budget that was passed in December. Our portfolio and the capabilities we offer are well supported by the administration and Congress. Growing security challenges will test our resolve in ways not seen for a generation, and we are confident this administration and the new Congress will find ways to work together to meet them.

在美國，我們對國家安全的持續大力支持感到鼓舞，包括兩黨壓倒性地支持在 12 月通過的 2023 財年國防預算中增加 10% 的支出。我們的產品組合和我們提供的能力得到了政府和國會的大力支持。越來越多的安全挑戰將以一代人未曾見過的方式考驗我們的決心，我們相信本屆政府和新一屆國會將找到共同努力應對這些挑戰的方法。

We expect the President's fiscal year 2024 budget request to support robust funding for the highest priority capabilities outlined in the National Defense Strategy.

我們預計總統的 2024 財年預算請求將為國防戰略中概述的最高優先級能力提供強有力的資金支持。

And our strategy has positioned us well. We're clearly maintaining our technology leadership and growing our portfolio of offerings, which is aligned to customer priorities. Another key element of our long-term strategy is keeping a laser focus on performance and driving cost efficiencies throughout the business. The current macroeconomic environment reinforces the importance of doing so.

我們的戰略使我們處於有利地位。我們顯然正在保持我們的技術領先地位並擴大我們的產品組合，這與客戶的優先事項保持一致。我們長期戰略的另一個關鍵要素是高度關注績效並推動整個企業的成本效率。當前的宏觀經濟環境強化了這樣做的重要性。

An example of our effort is the implementation of digital solutions across the company. Beyond the benefit of transforming how we design, test and manufacture the next generation of systems, our digital initiatives are streamlining business functions and increasing productivity. We are also optimizing our facilities and consolidating our real estate footprint. Every day, we seek new and innovative ways to drive performance and increased efficiency while remaining agile and meeting our customers' expectations.

我們努力的一個例子是在整個公司實施數字解決方案。除了改變我們設計、測試和製造下一代系統的方式的好處之外，我們的數字計劃正在簡化業務功能並提高生產力。我們還在優化我們的設施並鞏固我們的房地產足跡。每一天，我們都在尋求新的創新方法來推動性能和提高效率，同時保持敏捷並滿足客戶的期望。

Our capital deployment strategy supports our business strategy. We are investing to not only drive efficiencies but also to allow our customers to stay ahead of the threat environment. In 2022, we invested over 7% of revenue in R&D and capital expenditures to provide the capability and capacity needed to address the threats of today and tomorrow. We also continue to return cash to shareholders.

我們的資本部署戰略支持我們的業務戰略。我們的投資不僅是為了提高效率，也是為了讓我們的客戶能夠領先於威脅環境。 2022 年，我們將超過 7% 的收入用於研發和資本支出，以提供應對當今和未來威脅所需的能力。我們還繼續向股東返還現金。

Last year, we increased our dividend by 10%, which was the 19th consecutive increase. And during the year, we delivered over $1 billion to shareholders through the dividend and returned another $1.5 billion through share repurchases. So looking forward to 2023, we are well positioned for continued growth, and our revenue outlook has improved from the high $37 billion range we shared in October.

去年，我們將股息提高了 10%，這是連續第 19 次提高股息。在這一年裡，我們通過股息向股東支付了超過 10 億美元，並通過股票回購另外返還了 15 億美元。因此，展望 2023 年，我們已做好持續增長的準備，我們的收入前景已從 10 月份分享的 370 億美元的高位有所改善。

We now expect sales to be in the range of $38 billion to $38.4 billion, representing about 4.5% growth at the midpoint. Margins are expected to remain solid in the 11.3% to 11.5% range. We are projecting strong free cash flow growth that supports our capital deployment strategy. And we expect to return more than 100% of free cash flow to shareholders again in 2023.

我們現在預計銷售額將在 380 億美元至 384 億美元之間，中點增長率約為 4.5%。利潤率預計將保持在 11.3% 至 11.5% 的穩定範圍內。我們預計強勁的自由現金流增長將支持我們的資本部署戰略。我們預計在 2023 年再次向股東返還超過 100% 的自由現金流。

Our backlog, strong recent global demand growth and our ability to deliver products that address an increasingly complex security environment give us confidence in our outlook. So with that, I'll hand it over to Dave to cover the details of our financial results and more on guidance.

我們的積壓訂單、近期強勁的全球需求增長以及我們提供產品以應對日益複雜的安全環境的能力使我們對我們的前景充滿信心。因此，我將把它交給戴夫來介紹我們財務業績的細節以及更多關於指導的信息。

Okay. Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. I also want to thank our team for another year of strong performance in 2022. We won several new franchise programs, delivered industry-leading top line growth and bolstered our talented workforce, with the addition of over 6,000 net employees during the year. I'll spend a few minutes on our fourth quarter and 2022 results and then discuss our future expectations in more detail, including our long-term cash flow projections.

好的。謝謝，凱西，大家早上好。我還要感謝我們的團隊在 2022 年又取得了強勁的表現。我們贏得了幾個新的特許經營計劃，實現了行業領先的收入增長，並加強了我們才華橫溢的員工隊伍，這一年淨增加了 6,000 多名員工。我將花幾分鐘介紹我們第四季度和 2022 年的業績，然後更詳細地討論我們的未來預期，包括我們的長期現金流預測。

We ended the year with nearly $79 billion in backlog, reflecting strong demand for our products and capabilities. We continue to convert our backlog into revenue at an accelerating rate with fourth quarter sales growth of 16%. This was enabled by our ability to continue strong hiring in Q4 as well as a higher volume of material receipts based on the timing of program demand. The team did an outstanding job of working with our supply chain to secure program material. And for the full year, our sales grew to $36.6 billion, representing organic growth of 3% and exceeding our prior expectations. Our operating performance and margins remained solid despite the continued pressures of the macroeconomic environment.

年底，我們積壓了近 790 億美元，反映出對我們的產品和能力的強勁需求。我們繼續以更快的速度將積壓訂單轉化為收入，第四季度銷售額增長 16%。這是因為我們有能力在第四季度繼續強勁招聘，以及根據計劃需求的時間安排接收更多的材料。該團隊在與我們的供應鏈合作以確保計劃材料安全方面做得非常出色。全年，我們的銷售額增長到 366 億美元，有機增長 3%，超出了我們之前的預期。儘管宏觀經濟環境持續面臨壓力，但我們的經營業績和利潤率依然穩健。

Our segment operating margin rate was slightly below our expectations at 11.3% in Q4 and 11.6% for the full year due in part to the impacts of inflation, which resulted in a lower level of net earnings adjustments. But margin dollar volume was very strong given the top line outperformance. A positive EAC adjustment in the quarter was on B-21, where we recognized a $66 million pickup on the EMD phase of the program, reflecting our latest assumptions regarding future incentives in that phase.

我們的部門營業利潤率略低於我們的預期，第四季度為 11.3%，全年為 11.6%，部分原因是通貨膨脹的影響，導致淨收益調整水平較低。但鑑於頂線表現出色，保證金美元交易量非常強勁。本季度對 B-21 進行了積極的 EAC 調整，我們確認該計劃的 EMD 階段增加了 6600 萬美元，反映了我們對該階段未來激勵措施的最新假設。

Continuing with our Q4 results. Our transaction adjusted earnings per share were $7.50, a 25% increase over the same period in 2021. Higher EPS were driven by robust growth in our segment top and bottom lines as well as a lower effective tax rate. The lower Q4 tax rate was driven by the recognition of an $86 million benefit from the resolution of a legacy Orbital ATK tax return, which we previewed in our guidance last quarter. And corporate unallocated costs were also below our expectations due to lower state taxes as a result of the R&D tax amortization law not being deferred.

繼續我們的第四季度結果。我們的交易調整後每股收益為 7.50 美元，比 2021 年同期增長 25%。更高的每股收益是由我們部門收入和利潤的強勁增長以及較低的有效稅率推動的。較低的第四季度稅率是由於我們在上個季度的指導中預覽了遺留 Orbital ATK 納稅申報表的解決方案所帶來的 8600 萬美元收益。公司未分配成本也低於我們的預期，原因是研發稅攤銷法未延期導致州稅減少。

For the full year, our transaction-adjusted earnings per share were $25.54, well ahead of our guidance range. Now turning to cash. We had an extremely strong fourth quarter, consistent with our historical pattern. For the year, we generated $2.9 billion of operating cash flow and $1.6 billion of transaction-adjusted free cash flow, in line with our expectations. This was inclusive of a full year of cash taxes associated with the R&D tax amortization law as well as our final payment of deferred payroll taxes from the Cares Act legislation.

全年，我們經交易調整後的每股收益為 25.54 美元，遠高於我們的指導範圍。現在轉向現金。我們有一個非常強勁的第四季度，與我們的歷史模式一致。這一年，我們產生了 29 億美元的運營現金流和 16 億美元的交易調整後自由現金流，符合我們的預期。這包括與研發稅攤銷法相關的全年現金稅，以及我們根據《關懷法案》立法最終支付的遞延工資稅。

Moving to our pension plans. Slide 7 in our earnings deck includes our latest assumptions. After 3 consecutive years of double-digit asset returns, our plans declined by roughly 15% in 2022, in line with market trends. Our FAS discount rate increased roughly 250 basis points to 5.54%, which was the driver of the mark-to-market pension benefit of $1.2 billion reflected in our GAAP results. These factors are also reflected in our latest pension estimates for 2023 to 2025.

轉向我們的養老金計劃。我們收益平台中的幻燈片 7 包括我們的最新假設。在連續 3 年實現兩位數的資產回報後，我們的計劃在 2022 年下降了約 15%，符合市場趨勢。我們的 FAS 貼現率增加了大約 250 個基點，達到 5.54%，這是我們 GAAP 結果中反映的按市值計算的 12 億美元養老金福利的驅動因素。這些因素也反映在我們對 2023 年至 2025 年的最新養老金估計中。

As we previewed last quarter and updated in our slides today, we're projecting a decline in our noncash net FAS pension income and an increase in our estimated CAS recoveries. In total, our pension plans remain strong. As a result of the higher discount rate, our funded status has improved to nearly 100%, and we continue to project minimal cash pension contributions over the next several years.

正如我們上個季度的預覽和今天更新的幻燈片一樣，我們預計我們的非現金淨 FAS 養老金收入將下降，而我們估計的 CAS 回收率將增加。總的來說，我們的養老金計劃依然強勁。由於更高的貼現率，我們的資金狀況已改善至近 100%，我們將繼續計劃在未來幾年內提供最低限度的現金養老金繳款。

Now turning to 2023 guidance. Our revenue expectations have increased from our prior estimates, with the midpoint representing nearly 4.5% growth on top of the strong level in 2022. We expect Space Systems to remain our fastest-growing business. Sales are projected in the mid-$13 billion range, up over $1 billion from 2022 levels, with GBSD and NGI contributing nearly half of the growth and the rest coming from our broad space portfolio. Mission Systems sales are expected in the high $10 billion range, up mid-single digits, driven by restricted programs in our Networked Information Solutions business. And we continue to expect flattish sales at both Aeronautics and Defense Systems. While programs like B-21 and IBCS continue to grow, headwinds remain on legacy platforms as systems are retired. We expect Aeronautics and Defense Systems to return to growth in 2024.

現在轉向 2023 年指導。我們的收入預期比之前的估計有所提高，中點代表在 2022 年的強勁水平之上增長近 4.5%。我們預計太空系統仍將是我們增長最快的業務。銷售額預計在 130 億美元左右，比 2022 年的水平高出 10 億美元以上，其中 GBSD 和 NGI 貢獻了近一半的增長，其餘來自我們廣泛的空間產品組合。在我們的網絡信息解決方案業務的受限計劃的推動下，任務系統銷售額預計將達到 100 億美元，增長中等個位數。我們繼續預計航空和國防系統的銷售額將持平。儘管 B-21 和 IBCS 等項目繼續增長，但隨著系統退役，遺留平台仍面臨阻力。我們預計航空和國防系統將在 2024 年恢復增長。

And similar to our cadence in 2022, we expect first quarter sales of approximately 24% of our full year estimate, with sales ramping again throughout the year. With respect to margins, we expect our 2023 segment operating margin rate to be down roughly 20 basis points from 2022 levels. Challenging macroeconomic conditions, including extended lead times in the supply chain and high levels of inflation continue to put temporal pressure on margins. And while higher CAS recoveries provide a modest benefit to our cash flow in the coming years that create pressure in our overhead rates and EACs.

與我們 2022 年的節奏類似，我們預計第一季度銷售額約為全年預期的 24%，全年銷售額將再次攀升。關於利潤率，我們預計我們 2023 年的部門營業利潤率將比 2022 年水平下降約 20 個基點。具有挑戰性的宏觀經濟條件，包括供應鏈交貨時間延長和高通脹，繼續對利潤率造成暫時性壓力。雖然更高的 CAS 回收率在未來幾年為我們的現金流提供了適度的好處，但對我們的間接費用率和 EAC 造成了壓力。

Similar in nature to what we experienced in the first quarter of 2021 when we recognized a favorable impact from lower projected CAS costs, this could lead to an unfavorable margin impact when we update our rates this quarter. We notionally expect this to have a 10 to 20 basis point impact on the full year.

本質上與我們在 2021 年第一季度經歷的情況類似，當時我們認識到較低的預計 CAS 成本會帶來有利影響，這可能會在我們本季度更新利率時對利潤率產生不利影響。我們理論上預計這將對全年產生 10 到 20 個基點的影響。

In regard to the B-21 program, we expect the 2023 contract award for the first of 5 LRIP lots with the LRIP phase scheduled to run through approximately the end of the decade. We're continuing to work with our customer to address macroeconomic risks and enhance efficiencies in the program. As we've described in our 10-K, we do not believe that a loss on the LRIP phase is probable and therefore, no such loss is reflected in our results or guidance.

關於 B-21 計劃，我們預計將在 2023 年授予 5 個 LRIP 批次中的第一個，LRIP 階段計劃大約在本世紀末結束。我們將繼續與我們的客戶合作，以應對宏觀經濟風險並提高該計劃的效率。正如我們在 10-K 中所描述的，我們認為 LRIP 階段的損失是不可能的，因此，我們的結果或指導中沒有反映此類損失。

Now turning to our future outlook. We expect our 2023 earnings per share to range between $21.85 and $22.45 based on approximately 153 million weighted shares outstanding. This includes $450 million of net pension income, which represents a $4.30 per share headwind compared to 2022. Partially offsetting this nonoperational headwind is strong growth in segment performance and the lower share count, which adds roughly $0.90 of additional earnings per share and lower purchase intangible amortization largely offsets the higher tax rate.

現在轉向我們的未來展望。基於約 1.53 億股已發行加權股票，我們預計 2023 年每股收益將在 21.85 美元至 22.45 美元之間。這包括 4.5 億美元的養老金淨收入，與 2022 年相比，每股收益為 4.30 美元。部分抵消了這一非運營性逆風的是部門業績的強勁增長和較低的股份數量，這增加了大約 0.90 美元的額外每股收益和較低的無形資產購買攤銷在很大程度上抵消了較高的稅率。

Moving to cash. We expect 2023 adjusted free cash flow between $1.85 billion and $2.15 billion, consistent with our prior outlook as adjusted for current R&D tax law. Although we expect discussions to continue on Capitol Hill, our guidance and multiyear outlook are now based on current tax law for all years and do not include any refunds for R&D taxes paid in 2022. Capital expenditures are expected to remain elevated at $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion in 2023 and a similar level in 2024 before moderating in 2025 and beyond. This is driven by investments to support several large new business wins from 2022.

轉向現金。我們預計 2023 年調整後的自由現金流在 18.5 億美元至 21.5 億美元之間，與我們之前根據當前研發稅法調整後的預期一致。儘管我們預計國會山將繼續討論，但我們的指導意見和多年展望現在基於所有年份的現行稅法，不包括 2022 年支付的研發稅的任何退款。資本支出預計將保持在 16.5 億美元至 1.7 美元的高位2023 年達到 10 億，2024 年達到類似水平，然後在 2025 年及以後放緩。這是由支持從 2022 年開始贏得幾項大型新業務的投資推動的。

Our guidance assumes we will not have an extended CR, a breach of the debt ceiling or a prolonged government shutdown as this is our current expectation.

我們的指引假設我們不會有延長的 CR、違反債務上限或長期政府關閉，因為這是我們目前的預期。

Slide 12 in our earnings deck provides our long-term cash outlook, which is predicated on continued top line growth in our business generating strong and gradually expanding operating margins and converting those margins into cash. R&D-related cash tax payments should decline by about 20% per year. As I described, CapEx is expected to remain near 4.5% of sales in 2023 and 2024 before starting to decline in 2025.

我們收益面板中的幻燈片 12 提供了我們的長期現金前景，這是基於我們業務的持續收入增長產生強勁且逐漸擴大的營業利潤率並將這些利潤率轉化為現金。與研發相關的現金稅款每年應下降約 20%。正如我所描述的，資本支出預計將在 2023 年和 2024 年保持在銷售額的 4.5% 左右，然後在 2025 年開始下降。

After investing in our business, we continue to expect to return more than 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders in 2023 in the form of dividends and share repurchases. And we plan to be in the market for new debt issuance soon to support our capital deployment plans including the refinancing of near-term maturities. In summary, 2022 was another successful year for Northrop Grumman, and we continue to deliver value for our customers, employees and shareholders.

在投資我們的業務後，我們繼續期望在 2023 年以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還超過 100% 的自由現金流。我們計劃很快進入新債發行市場，以支持我們的資本配置計劃，包括近期到期再融資。總而言之，2022 年對諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司來說又是成功的一年，我們將繼續為我們的客戶、員工和股東創造價值。

And with that, we're ready to take your questions.

這樣，我們就可以回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Kristine Liwag 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Kathy, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that the B-21 cost estimated is below the government estimates. But as Dave mentioned, there are macro and inflation cost pressures. I mean this comment really stood out to me since in the past decade, we've seen many large defense development programs exceed costs and not just by a smidge but meaningfully. Can you provide more color on what the Northrop team is doing to manage this risk and how we should think about the LRIPs through the end of the decade? And what are puts and takes in terms of potential risk?

凱西，你在準備好的發言中提到 B-21 的估算成本低於政府估算。但正如戴夫所提到的，存在宏觀和通脹成本壓力。我的意思是這個評論對我來說真的很突出，因為在過去的十年裡，我們已經看到許多大型國防發展計劃超出了成本，而且不僅僅是一點點，而是有意義的。您能否提供更多有關諾斯羅普團隊為管理這一風險所做的工作以及我們應該如何考慮到本十年末的 LRIP 的更多信息？就潛在風險而言，什麼是賣出和賣出？

Yes. So as we noted, we are performing exceptionally well on the B-21 program, and we have continued government support for the quantities of at least 100 that are represented in the program of record. But given that this contract was initially awarded in 2015, the recent and really unprecedented macroeconomic impact of inflation, labor, supply chain disruption has affected the cost estimate to perform on the LRIP phase of the program.

是的。因此，正如我們指出的那樣，我們在 B-21 計劃中表現非常出色，並且我們繼續為記錄在案的至少 100 架飛機提供政府支持。但鑑於這份合同最初是在 2015 年授予的，最近真正前所未有的通貨膨脹、勞動力、供應鏈中斷對宏觀經濟的影響已經影響了在該項目的 LRIP 階段執行的成本估算。

And importantly, we noted our projected cost per unit are still below the government cost estimates upon which the funding profile is based. And that's important because it supports the overall buy plan of the U.S. government. And just to, as a reminder on timing, the government hasn't yet exercised any of the LRIP options. So like we do on any price options, we continue to look at what the future may hold and reflect that in our estimates that complete, but those are indeed estimates of cost and future performance.

重要的是，我們注意到我們預計的每單位成本仍低於資金狀況所依據的政府成本估算。這很重要，因為它支持美國政府的整體購買計劃。順便提醒一下，政府尚未行使任何 LRIP 選項。因此，就像我們對任何價格選擇所做的那樣，我們繼續研究未來可能會發生什麼，並在我們完成的估計中反映出來，但這些確實是對成本和未來績效的估計。

So while -- as we note in the K , we don't currently consider a loss on LRIP to be probable, if it were ultimately to occur, it would spread over all 5 lots of the program. And particularly, that's important related to any cash flow impact. So as we look at 2023, we do not see that as material in our cash flow outlook. And even as we put together our 3-year cash flow outlook, we wouldn't see that as being material. So hopefully, that gives you a sense of what is contributing to B-21 cost estimates.

因此，雖然 - 正如我們在 K 中指出的那樣，我們目前不認為 LRIP 的損失是可能的，但如果它最終發生，它將分佈在該計劃的所有 5 個批次中。特別是，這對任何現金流影響都很重要。因此，當我們展望 2023 年時，我們認為這在我們的現金流前景中並不重要。即使我們將 3 年現金流量展望放在一起，我們也不認為這是重要的。希望這能讓您了解影響 B-21 成本估算的因素。

Inflation clearly is the primary driver there. as we think about what's changed recently in our estimates, and we are working to mitigate those impacts, as you say, and we have some time as we move forward and get into production to continue to do that.

通貨膨脹顯然是那裡的主要驅動力。當我們考慮我們的估計最近發生了什麼變化時，正如您所說，我們正在努力減輕這些影響，並且在我們向前邁進並投入生產的過程中，我們有一些時間繼續這樣做。

Our next question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅納德愛潑斯坦。

Maybe my first question is on space. The performance there is better than I think anybody was anticipating. What's underlying that? And how should we think about that going forward maybe even beyond 2023?

也許我的第一個問題是關於太空的。那裡的表現比我認為任何人預期的都要好。這是什麼原因？我們應該如何考慮未來可能甚至超過 2023 年？

Yes, Ron, you are stating it accurately the performance there has been better even than we expected, and it's largely driven by more success in competitive wins than we had anticipated. Generally in all of our business, we project a certain amount of success, particularly in competitive environment. And here, we've just done better than we anticipated. And so that's driven sales upside and the very strong book-to-bill that we've had in that business where their backlog now is more than 3x sales and supports our projections for long-term, steady and durable growth.

是的，羅恩，你說得很準確，那裡的表現甚至比我們預期的還要好，這在很大程度上是由比我們預期的更多的競爭勝利所推動的。一般來說，在我們所有的業務中，我們都會取得一定程度的成功，尤其是在競爭激烈的環境中。在這裡，我們做得比我們預期的要好。因此，這推動了銷售額的增長以及我們在該業務中擁有的非常強勁的訂單出貨比，他們現在積壓的訂單是銷售額的 3 倍以上，並支持我們對長期、穩定和持久增長的預測。

And then you mentioned in your -- just as a follow-on in your prepared remarks that your growth has been supported by your ability to hire folks. How has that been -- I know, I mean, it's kind of across the entire industry and your supply chains, getting labor has been difficult, particularly skilled labor that's kind of up to spec. How have you guys been able to do that? And what's underlying that?

然後你在你準備好的評論中提到——就像你的後續評論一樣，你的成長得到了你僱用人員的支持。這是怎麼回事——我知道，我的意思是，在整個行業和你的供應鏈中，很難找到勞動力，尤其是符合規格的熟練勞動力。你們是怎麼做到的？那是什麼？

It has been a key driver to generating 16% sales growth in the fourth quarter, in particular. We noted in the third quarter of last year that we were starting to see labor trends change in a favorable way. Our hiring had improved. Our retention had dramatically improved, and we saw that trend continue in the fourth quarter.

特別是第四季度，它一直是實現 16% 銷售額增長的關鍵驅動力。我們在去年第三季度注意到，我們開始看到勞動力趨勢以有利的方式發生變化。我們的招聘有所改善。我們的留存率有了顯著提高，而且我們看到這種趨勢在第四季度仍在繼續。

I think a few things contribute. We hire technology skills that are very akin to what the technology sector employees, and we've certainly seen softness in that sector that has led to a significant increase in applications to Northrop Grumman. But I'd also like to think it's to do to the reputation of our company as being a technology innovator and the successes that we were able to showcase last year like James Webb and the unveiling of B-21 really spiked interest in applications to -- for employment at our company. And so those 2 things in combination are certainly working in our favor in a differentiated way.

我認為有幾件事有所貢獻。我們僱用的技術技能與技術部門的員工非常相似，我們當然看到該部門的疲軟導致諾斯羅普格魯曼公司的申請顯著增加。但我也想認為這對我們公司作為技術創新者的聲譽以及我們去年能夠展示的成功如 James Webb 和 B-21 的揭幕確實激起了人們對應用程序的興趣 - - 在我們公司工作。因此，這兩件事的結合肯定以差異化的方式對我們有利。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Just a follow up on an earlier comment. In the past, I think you've talked about 12% margins in 2024 and the 2023 guide is 11.5% or so. As you think about sort of inflationary pressures, what are you watching? And you mentioned some of the B-21 items as an example. So what sort of offsets that to get to that 50 basis points of expansion?

只是對先前評論的跟進。過去，我認為你談到了 2024 年 12% 的利潤率，而 2023 年的指南是 11.5% 左右。當您考慮某種通貨膨脹壓力時，您在看什麼？你提到了一些 B-21 項目作為例子。那麼什麼樣的抵消才能達到 50 個基點的擴張呢？

As we've noted, we had talked about 12% being the fundamental margin rate that we believe this business, this portfolio can perform at, and we would be working our way back to that as particularly mix becomes less of a headwind in the middle of the decade. We still see that. But we are having these temporal pressures related to inflation that are flowing through all of our programs, B-21 most notable because of its scale and that we did it very long ago.

正如我們所指出的，我們曾談到 12% 是我們認為該業務、該投資組合可以執行的基本利潤率，我們將努力回到這一點，因為特別是組合在中間變得不那麼不利了十年的。我們仍然看到這一點。但我們正面臨著與通貨膨脹相關的暫時壓力，這些壓力正在貫穿我們所有的項目，B-21 最為引人注目是因為它的規模，而且我們很久以前就做過了。

As we think about how we are offsetting those costs, we talked about some of those ways today. We are working to digitally enable our business, which reduces program costs directly and improve profitability. But we also are applying that to our back office to streamline business processes and reduce costs that flow into our overheads also making our rates more competitive.

當我們考慮如何抵消這些成本時，我們今天討論了其中的一些方法。我們正在努力以數字方式支持我們的業務，這將直接降低項目成本並提高盈利能力。但我們也將其應用於我們的後台辦公室，以簡化業務流程並降低流入我們管理費用的成本，同時使我們的費率更具競爭力。

And reducing the impact of cost growth. So those things that -- real estate has been key. You saw today, we talked about a few things that we did in the real estate area already in 2022, but we have many more of those lined up as ways to continue to offset any cost growth that we see and drive towards those higher margins.

並減少成本增長的影響。所以那些東西 - 房地產一直是關鍵。你今天看到了，我們談到了我們在 2022 年已經在房地產領域所做的一些事情，但我們還有更多這些事情被列為繼續抵消我們看到的任何成本增長並推動更高利潤率的方法。

Our next question comes from Richard Safran with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Richard Safran。

Kathy, Dave, Todd, I think we probably all agree the stock right now seems to reflect the idea that defense is going to be a bill payer as we move to a period of deficit reduction. And I realize this question puts you a little bit on the spot forecasting government spending. But I wanted to know if you'd expand on your optimistic opening remarks. Talk about your macro outlook relative to what seems to be being priced into your stock? And if you think modernization might be sacrificed as part of the budget negotiations?

凱西、戴夫、托德，我想我們可能都同意，現在的股票似乎反映了這樣一種觀點，即隨著我們進入赤字削減期，國防將成為賬單支付方。我意識到這個問題會讓你在預測政府支出時有點當場。但我想知道你是否願意擴展你樂觀的開場白。談談你的宏觀前景與你股票中似乎定價的因素有關？如果您認為現代化可能會作為預算談判的一部分而被犧牲？

Yes. So we look at the stock price over a longer time horizon than weeks, and we've consistently outperformed the industry on a relative TSR basis over the long term. But as you indicate, -- we've seen some pullback in the last several weeks across the sector and even more so with Northrop Grumman. I am a little surprised at the level of relative pullback we've seen given our strong continued results, our growth outlook and the relative portfolio positioning that we have in the U.S. and internationally.

是的。因此，我們在比數週更長的時間範圍內觀察股價，並且從長期來看，我們在相對 TSR 的基礎上一直跑贏行業。但正如你所指出的，——我們在過去幾週看到整個行業出現了一些回調，諾斯羅普格魯曼公司更是如此。鑑於我們持續強勁的業績、我們的增長前景以及我們在美國和國際上的相對投資組合定位，我對我們所看到的相對回調水平感到有些驚訝。

And to answer the second part of your question directly, I do not see the U.S. or our allies pulling back on funding their national defense strategy that is well aligned with the Northrop Grumman portfolio. So I'd sum it up by saying, with a strong backlog, growing global demand for our products, differentiated technology and the ability to attract and retain top talent, we're really well positioned to continue executing on the strategy that we have that is expected to deliver differentiated growth and a potential to generate greater than 20% free cash flow growth for at least the next several years, and we believe beyond.

直接回答你問題的第二部分，我不認為美國或我們的盟友會減少資助他們與諾斯羅普格魯曼公司產品組合非常一致的國防戰略。因此，我想總結一下，由於大量積壓、全球對我們產品的需求不斷增長、差異化技術以及吸引和留住頂尖人才的能力，我們確實有能力繼續執行我們的戰略預計至少在未來幾年內將實現差異化增長，並有可能產生超過 20% 的自由現金流增長，而且我們相信更遠。

So I think investors are going to like that. And we've been in periods like this before following sequestration, where there was noise in the system related to the government's commitment to national security.

所以我認為投資者會喜歡這樣。在封存之前，我們一直處於這樣的時期，系統中存在與政府對國家安全的承諾有關的噪音。

But following that, it was one of the best periods of relative TSR growth at our company, and really, our industry has produced in a while. So I see this as a temporal speed bump in our past and yet our strategy remains strong to deliver value.

但在那之後，這是我們公司 TSR 相對增長最好的時期之一，實際上，我們的行業已經有一段時間了。所以我認為這是我們過去的一個暫時的減速帶，但我們的戰略仍然很強大，可以創造價值。

Just as a quick follow-up on inflation. The comments on the B-21 that you've been making, is there a general trend here is when your contracts you're signing right now with the government, are they generally accounting for inflationary effects or are you not finding that?

就像通貨膨脹的快速跟進一樣。你一直在對 B-21 發表評論，這裡是否存在一個普遍趨勢，即當你現在與政府簽訂合同時，它們通常是否考慮了通貨膨脹效應，或者你沒有發現這一點？

So our customers are engaging in conversations with industry to understand to motivate our investment in future capability and capacity, that is what they really want. And I think many of them now understand that shifting too much risk to industry doesn't support that investment, nor does it deliver the capability they need in a timely fashion. So with that, I expect we're going to see less the price development going forward. And they are specifically to inflation, the industry broadly is pushing back on accepting long-term fixed price contracts right now. And they're asking for reopeners for inflation. We expect that to continue. And as our suppliers ask us for that, we, of course, are passing that on to the government. And really, that's just common sense. So I believe it will become the norm.

因此，我們的客戶正在與行業進行對話，以了解激勵我們對未來能力和產能的投資，這才是他們真正想要的。而且我認為他們中的許多人現在都明白，將過多的風險轉移到行業並不能支持這種投資，也不能及時提供他們所需的能力。因此，我希望我們看到未來的價格發展會減少。他們特別針對通貨膨脹，整個行業現在普遍反對接受長期固定價格合同。他們要求重新開放以應對通貨膨脹。我們希望這種情況繼續下去。當我們的供應商要求我們這樣做時，我們當然會將其轉交給政府。真的，這只是常識。所以我相信這會成為常態。

Our next question comes from Douglas Harned with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Douglas Harned 和 Bernstein。

Last year, you had a decline in Aeronautics that we understood pretty well because you've got quite a few legacy programs that were ramping down, like JSTARS Global Hawk. When you look at this year, with your fairly flat guidance for Aeronautics, how do you look at the pluses and minuses when we look at B-21 growth but you still got some legacy programs that are declining. How do you see those offsetting each other?

去年，我們非常了解航空學的下滑，因為有很多遺留項目正在逐漸減少，比如 JSTARS 全球鷹。當你看今年時，你對航空業的指導相當平坦，當我們看 B-21 的增長時你如何看待利弊，但你仍然有一些正在下降的遺留項目。你如何看待那些相互抵消的？

So Doug, this year is really a continuation of those same trends flowing through the top line. The programs that have been declining. We've seen the majority of those declines, but they do still flow into the '23, '22 compare. So it is things like Joint STARS and Global Hawk. F-35 being a big revenue contributor in AS is relatively flat. So that ties directly into the narrative about their revenues being flat. And then B-21 is an increase, but it's not a significant increase yet because we're just moving from EMD into LRIP and these 2 combined are not a significant increase in the program as of yet.

所以道格，今年真的是那些同樣的趨勢在頂線的延續。一直在下降的程序。我們已經看到了其中的大部分下降，但它們仍然流入了 23 年和 22 年的比較。所以它是聯合星和全球鷹之類的東西。 F-35 作為 AS 的主要收入貢獻者，收入相對持平。因此，這與他們收入持平的說法直接相關。然後 B-21 增加了，但還不是顯著增加，因為我們只是從 EMD 轉向 LRIP，而這兩個組合目前還沒有顯著增加。

Well, and then on a slightly different topic. When you look at rocket motors, and this is an important area for you. And I'm trying to picture what the growth trajectory looks like. And also just in a sense of your market share, you've got 1 competitor that is a mature player. There are new entrants coming into the space. How do you see the long-term evolution of your market share and how you're positioned in that area?

好吧，然後是一個稍微不同的話題。當您查看火箭發動機時，這對您來說是一個重要領域。我正在嘗試描繪增長軌蹟的樣子。而且就您的市場份額而言，您有一個成熟的競爭對手。有新進入者進入該領域。您如何看待市場份額的長期演變以及您在該領域的定位？

So we stay focused on investing in the future capability needed and more so lately in the capacity needed. And in many ways, the reason we are being asked take on more share of the market is because we've been investing in this business and are able to take on that additional business because we have outfitted our manufacturing facilities to support the growth. As with the government is asking, we have been responsive. And so as a result, we are winning more business in that area. But we expect to be able to compete even as other new entrants come into the space because we do have a long heritage of expertise that contributes to our solid rocket motor business.

因此，我們繼續專注於投資於未來所需的能力，最近更多地投資於所需的能力。在很多方面，我們被要求承擔更多市場份額的原因是因為我們一直在投資這項業務，並且能夠承擔額外的業務，因為我們已經配備了製造設施來支持增長。正如政府要求的那樣，我們一直在回應。因此，我們在該領域贏得了更多業務。但我們希望能夠與其他新進入者進入太空競爭，因為我們確實擁有悠久的專業知識傳統，有助於我們的固體火箭發動機業務。

And that's for all size, as I talked today and highlighted some of the larger solid rocket boosters that we build in support of SLS and GEM 63 for Kuiper. But that's true in businesses like (inaudible) , where we are taking on more of the needed capacity because we've been investing in our manufacturing capacity there as well.

這適用於所有規模，正如我今天所說，並強調了我們為支持 SLS 和 Kuiper 的 GEM 63 而建造的一些更大的固體火箭助推器。但這在像（聽不清）這樣的企業中是正確的，我們正在承擔更多所需的產能，因為我們也一直在投資我們在那裡的製造能力。

And our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the profitability in the space business. The margin guidance came down there, margin rate guidance came down there a couple of times during the year. And it's kind of perceived to be kind of a 10% business, I think, is what we've talked about in the past and looking to a second year in the mid-9s here in 2023. So what's changed there over the past year?

我想知道你是否可以談談太空業務的盈利能力。保證金指導在那裡下降，保證金率指導在這一年裡下降了幾次。我認為，它被認為是一種 10% 的業務，這是我們過去討論過的，並期待在 2023 年中期的第二年。那麼過去一年那裡發生了什麼變化？

Seth, it's Dave. So I think you pointed out accurately that we're now projecting a margin rate for space in the mid-10s going forward. There were a lot of puts and takes in that margin rate upward and downward throughout 2022. Obviously, it's a rapidly evolving business, a tremendous amount of backlog growth and new program activity added into that portfolio over the last couple of years. So we're really pleased with the volume we're adding both at the top line and the bottom line in that process. Obviously, a lot of new cost type work being added to that portfolio and that mix growing, but also work that will evolve toward fixed price over the next couple of years and some new fixed price programs in that mix as well.

賽斯，是戴夫。所以我認為你準確地指出，我們現在預計未來 10 年代中期的空間保證金率。在整個 2022 年，該保證金率有很多上下波動。顯然，這是一項快速發展的業務，在過去幾年中，該投資組合中增加了大量積壓增長和新計劃活動。因此，我們對該過程中在頂線和底線添加的數量感到非常滿意。顯然，許多新的成本類型的工作被添加到該投資組合中並且混合增長，但在未來幾年內也會向固定價格發展的工作以及該組合中的一些新的固定價格計劃。

So in aggregate, we think the mid-9s is the right way to look at 2023. In the coming years, we do see the opportunity for margin rate expansion. But I think the most important takeaway for the space business is that the volume of top and bottom line growth that we've been delivering over the last couple of years and now are projecting over the next few is really adding a lot of value there.

因此，總的來說，我們認為 9 年代中期是看待 2023 年的正確方式。在未來幾年，我們確實看到了擴大利潤率的機會。但我認為太空業務最重要的收穫是，我們在過去幾年中實現的收入和利潤增長量以及現在預測的未來幾年確實會增加很多價值。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up, Dave. So the working capital performance was quite good in '22. I think the way that measuring here. Working capital actually came down a bit despite the growth and despite the tough operating environment, only 6% of sales, which is below some of your peers. What's the opportunity from here? Or is there kind of a normalization at some point where actually for a growing business, the normal level of working capital is higher?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後作為後續行動，戴夫。因此，22 年的營運資金表現相當不錯。我認為這裡測量的方式。儘管增長和經營環境艱難，但營運資金實際上有所下降，僅佔銷售額的 6%，低於一些同行。從這裡有什麼機會？或者在某個時候是否存在某種正常化，實際上對於成長中的企業來說，營運資金的正常水平更高？

So let's talk about that for a few minutes. There is not a substantial change in working capital projected in the 3-year free cash flow guide that we gave today. There is more capital intensity in 2023 and 2024 that we've signaled throughout this year, given just how much more new business we were awarded this year and the additional capital investments that we need to make to support capacity and capability there.

因此，讓我們花幾分鐘時間討論一下。我們今天提供的 3 年自由現金流量指南中預計的營運資金沒有重大變化。考慮到我們今年獲得了更多的新業務以及我們需要進行額外的資本投資以支持那裡的能力和能力，我們今年全年都發出了 2023 年和 2024 年資本密集度更高的信號。

We've talked about things like the Amazon Kuiper Award and and other areas of the business that Kathy just noted, we're making investments upfront for these long-term franchise programs. So that is a headwind to free cash flow. But we're pleased to be able to offset that and deliver free cash flow guidance for '23 that's in line with our prior expectations. That's supported by the growth of the business, both top and bottom line. The R&D tax numbers will come down steadily over the next 5 years. And then gradually, over the next several years, we'll see improvements in the CAS pension cost reimbursement based on current projections.

我們已經討論過亞馬遜柯伊伯獎和凱西剛才提到的其他業務領域，我們正在為這些長期特許經營計劃進行前期投資。所以這是自由現金流的逆風。但我們很高興能夠抵消這一點，並為 23 年提供符合我們先前預期的自由現金流指導。這得到了業務增長的支持，包括頂線和底線。研發稅收數字將在未來 5 年內穩步下降。然後，在接下來的幾年裡，我們將逐漸看到基於當前預測的 CAS 養老金成本報銷有所改善。

So not much change in working capital, but there are some other moving pieces in the mix. I think importantly, when we look at the underlying fundamentals of growth and margin rate, as we talked about in our scripted remarks, we do anticipate growth through this 3-year outlook that we've provided at the top line, and we are modeling small but gradual improvement in the margin rate as well. So that's a healthy underlying condition for free cash flow.

因此，營運資金變化不大，但組合中還有其他一些變動因素。我認為重要的是，當我們審視增長和利潤率的基本面時，正如我們在腳本中所說的那樣，我們確實通過我們在頂線提供的 3 年展望來預測增長，並且我們正在建模保證金率也有小幅但逐漸改善。因此，這是自由現金流的健康基礎條件。

And while we're at it, as we think about this outlook for free cash flow, the foundation is set for strong free cash flow beyond this 3-year period. The second half of this decade will have more programs moving to production, fewer of these upfront investments required to do so. The foundation we've laid over the last several years of capital investment is going to pay off in the second half of this decade on many of those programs. And so that's a healthy environment for continued growth in free cash flow as well as the continuation of the R&D tax amortization rolling off as a headwind.

當我們在考慮自由現金流的前景時，我們已經為這 3 年之後的強勁自由現金流奠定了基礎。本十年的下半年，將有更多的項目投入生產，而這樣做所需的前期投資將會減少。我們在過去幾年的資本投資中打下的基礎將在本十年的下半年為其中許多項目帶來回報。因此，這是一個健康的環境，有利於自由現金流的持續增長，也有利於研發稅收攤銷的持續下滑。

So when you look at the second half of the decade, I think your expectation should be more of the same strong growth in free cash flow that we've been talking about in the first half.

因此，當你回顧這十年的下半年時，我認為你的期望應該更多地是我們在上半年談論的自由現金流的強勁增長。

And our next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

I did have a couple of follow-ups on the B-21, if that's okay. And Dave, I think you alluded that the first LRIP contracts to be awarded in '23. I'm just curious, is that sort of the triggering event or whether or not you'd know you're in the loss or not at that point? And then Kathy, I know you said the 10-K disclosure is over the 5 LRIP lots. But I'm just curious, is it tougher at the front end of those lot profiles? Is it more promises at the back end that you'd have time to fight off inflation? Anything on those 2 fronts?

如果可以的話，我確實對 B-21 進行了幾次跟進。戴夫，我想你提到了 23 年授予的第一份 LRIP 合同。我只是好奇，是不是那種觸發事件，或者你是否知道你在那個時候處於虧損狀態？然後 Kathy，我知道你說過 10-K 披露是在 5 個 LRIP 批次上。但我很好奇，這些批次配置文件的前端是否更難？是不是在後端承諾你有時間對抗通貨膨脹？這兩個方面有什麼嗎？

Sure. I'll start on your first of those questions. The award of that first lot of LRIP will be a noteworthy event but not a triggering event of any kind from an accounting perspective. We will update our projections quarterly as we have been. We'll continue to do so.

當然。我將從你的第一個問題開始。第一批 LRIP 的授予將是一個值得注意的事件，但從會計角度來看不是任何類型的觸發事件。我們將一如既往地每季度更新一次預測。我們將繼續這樣做。

And so at this time, we don't believe that a loss is probable and therefore, we have not booked one. We do believe that a loss is possible, which is why we're including it in our remarks and our 10-K disclosures. It's something we will continue to work over time. Obviously, this is going to continue for a number of years. As Kathy has talked about, we'll continue to do everything we can to mitigate inflationary pressures and work with our customers and our suppliers in the process. Kathy, anything you'd like to add?

所以在這個時候，我們認為損失的可能性不大，因此我們沒有預訂。我們確實相信損失是可能的，這就是我們將其包含在我們的評論和 10-K 披露中的原因。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續努力。顯然，這種情況將持續數年。正如凱西所說，我們將繼續竭盡所能減輕通脹壓力，並在此過程中與我們的客戶和供應商合作。凱西，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure. So in answer to your second question, we do expect to have a better sense as the year progresses, and we'll update disclosures as we do. And as we look at the profile, there's nothing really notable. To your point, we have more time to work cost efficiencies in the later lots. But of course, we made some more aggressive assumptions about learning curves and the like as we would on any production program. So really nothing notable in the profile and how you might think about any potential loss in spread.

當然。因此，在回答您的第二個問題時，我們確實希望隨著時間的推移會有更好的感覺，並且我們會像往常一樣更新披露信息。當我們查看配置文件時，沒有什麼真正值得注意的。就您的觀點而言，我們有更多時間在後期批次中提高成本效率。但當然，我們對學習曲線等做出了一些更積極的假設，就像我們對任何生產程序所做的那樣。所以在配置文件中真的沒有什麼值得注意的，你可能會如何看待任何潛在的傳播損失。

Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Robert Stallard。

Dave, I've got a couple of cash flow questions for you. First of all, on basically cash taxes with the R&D tax legislation impact. What sort of tailwind are you expecting from this -- from 2023 and onwards? And then secondly, what are your assumptions for equipment sales in that cash flow guidance for 2023 or for the whole period?

戴夫，我有幾個現金流問題要問你。首先，基本上是現金稅與研發稅立法的影響。從 2023 年及以後，您期望從中獲得什麼樣的順風？其次，您在 2023 年或整個期間的現金流指導中對設備銷售的假設是什麼？

Sure. Thanks for those questions. The answers are pretty straightforward. As we noted, the impact on our cash taxes in 2022 from the R&D tax legislation was just under $1 billion. We would anticipate that being about 20% less per year, just under $200 million or so on average less per year. And so that is the magnitude of the annual tailwind that we'd anticipate for the next 5 years or so. Overall, cash taxes, excluding the impact of that R&D tax amortization will increase slightly over the coming years, but that's factored into our multiyear outlook.

當然。謝謝你的問題。答案很簡單。正如我們所指出的，研發稅立法對我們 2022 年現金稅的影響略低於 10 億美元。我們預計每年減少約 20%，平均每年減少不到 2 億美元左右。這就是我們預計未來 5 年左右年度順風的規模。總體而言，現金稅（不包括研發稅攤銷的影響）將在未來幾年略有增加，但這已納入我們的多年展望。

And as for equipment sales, I appreciate the question there. We received the final payment associated with the equipment sale that we booked a couple of years ago in 2022. And so we don't anticipate we're having our multiyear cash flow outlook, any continued recoveries from equipment sales.

至於設備銷售，我很欣賞那裡的問題。我們收到了幾年前在 2022 年預訂的與設備銷售相關的最終付款。因此，我們預計我們不會有多年的現金流前景，也不會從設備銷售中持續復甦。

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 與 Cowen 的對話。

This is actually Jack on for Cai today. Just a quick question back to kind of the Section 174, Dave, I know in the past, I'm not sure if you quantified that if you could actually provide that dollar figure if you could. I know it steps down 20% each year. But looking back at your guide from last year at this time for '24, it looks like a larger delta than an implied $700 million headwind. So just to confirm, is that incremental CapEx going higher? Or if you could just provide some color there, that would be helpful.

這實際上是Jack on for Cai 今天。只是一個關於第 174 節的快速問題，戴夫，我過去知道，我不確定你是否量化了你是否真的可以提供那個美元數字。我知道它每年下降 20%。但是回顧你去年這個時候的 24 年指南，它看起來比隱含的 7 億美元逆風更大的三角洲。所以只是為了確認，增量資本支出是否會更高？或者，如果您可以在那裡提供一些顏色，那將會很有幫助。

Sure. I appreciate those questions. I think you have to the air math about right on 174. It was just under $1 billion in 2022, and it will decline by just under $200 million a year on average going forward. In terms of that 2024 guide, you're right that our CapEx expectations increased a bit given the volume of new business that we won this year that we'll be investing in going forward. No other material changes to 2024. We do anticipate growth as we've seen in '24 and then a real ramp in '25 as CapEx begins to decline, and you have the tailwinds as well in '25 and beyond from R&D tax, CAS pension recoveries and the underlying growth in margins in the business.

當然。我很欣賞這些問題。我認為您必須對 174 進行正確的空中數學運算。到 2022 年，它略低於 10 億美元，並且未來平均每年將下降近 2 億美元。就 2024 年指南而言，您是對的，鑑於我們今年贏得的新業務量我們將投資於未來，我們的資本支出預期有所增加。到 2024 年沒有其他重大變化。我們確實預計會像我們在 24 年看到的那樣增長，然後隨著資本支出開始下降而在 25 年出現真正的增長，並且在 25 年及以後的研發稅，CAS 也有順風養老金回收和業務利潤率的潛在增長。

Our next question comes from Peter Arment with RW Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 RW Baird。

Kathy, within Aeronautics, the service mix continues to be a bigger part of the story. I guess it's now about 22%. If you finish 22 and look, that's up from the mid-teens the last few years. Obviously, there's some puts and takes on why that is. But just wondering if this trend is going to continue and how you think about the impact on margins?

凱西，在航空業，服務組合仍然是故事的重要組成部分。我猜現在大約是 22%。如果你完成 22 名，然後看，這比過去幾年的 15 歲左右有所上升。顯然，有一些觀點可以解釋為什麼會這樣。但只是想知道這種趨勢是否會持續下去以及您如何看待對利潤率的影響？

Yes. So we do expect the trend to continue in terms of -- as assets get into service, we continue to support. But we also have assets like Global Hawk that are coming down. So I don't see a material change in that mix as we look forward, Peter.

是的。因此，我們確實希望這種趨勢會繼續下去——隨著資產投入使用，我們將繼續提供支持。但我們也有像全球鷹這樣的資產正在下降。因此，彼得，在我們期待的時候，我認為這種組合不會發生重大變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Ken Herbert。

Kathy, in your opening comments, I think you maybe called out international opportunities, perhaps a little bit more than I can remember from recent quarters. Can you help frame maybe how much of an uptick in international opportunities could be reflected or international sales could be reflected in the '23 guide, if that was all a part of any of the upward revision -- and then as you think about beyond '23, how meaningful is international in terms of an uptick for you? I know historically, obviously, it hasn't been as meaningful as part of the mix of some of your peers, but maybe you can comment on that expanding opportunity set?

凱西，在你的開場白中，我想你可能提到了國際機會，可能比我最近幾個季度記得的要多一些。你能否幫助確定國際機會的增加有多少可以反映在'23 指南中，如果這都是任何向上修訂的一部分 - 然後當你考慮超越' 23、國際化對你來說有多大意義？從歷史上看，很明顯，它並沒有像你的一些同行那樣有意義，但也許你可以評論一下這個不斷擴大的機會集？

Yes. Thank you. So in the fourth quarter, we did see some meaningful uptick in Defense Systems, and you can see that reflected in our results, both from the areas that I outlined in this call related to ammunitions and armaments but also increased interest in IBCS, and we have the current Poland work continuing to ramp but the 10 additional countries that I've noticed that have expressed interest. So as we think about the near-term drivers, it's the things that we already have in production. But as we think about the longer-term drivers is areas like IBCS future sales.

是的。謝謝你。因此，在第四季度，我們確實看到防禦系統出現了一些有意義的增長，你可以看到這反映在我們的結果中，既來自我在本次電話會議中概述的與彈藥和軍備相關的領域，也來自對 IBCS 的興趣增加，我們目前波蘭的工作繼續推進，但我注意到另外 10 個國家表示有興趣。因此，當我們考慮近期驅動因素時，這是我們已經投入生產的東西。但我們認為長期驅動因素是 IBCS 未來銷售等領域。

And we are seeing that interest increase across the business, but most notably in '23, I think you will see that reflected as upside opportunity in defense. As we look at the enterprise over the next several years, we do expect our international growth rate to be double-digit, low teens compared to a U.S. growth rate that more in the norm of our mid-single digits. So as we think about international, we do expect it to grow as a percent of our portfolio in the next several years. And that's all based on international demand growing as a result of increased spending confirmations made by our allied partners.

我們看到整個企業的興趣都在增加，但最明顯的是在 23 年，我認為你會看到這反映在國防領域的上行機會。當我們審視未來幾年的企業時，我們確實預計我們的國際增長率將達到兩位數，與美國增長率相比，我們的國際增長率更接近我們的中等個位數。因此，當我們考慮國際業務時，我們確實希望它在未來幾年內占我們投資組合的百分比會增長。而這一切都是基於我們的盟友確認的支出增加導致國際需求增長。

Our question comes from Scott Deuschle with Credit Suisse.

我們的問題來自瑞士信貸的 Scott Deuschle。

Kathy, if I go back to 2018 when the group sold off quite a bit, Northrop got pretty active on buying back stock. And I think you even launched an ASR, if I recall correctly. So I'd be curious if that would still be your playbook this year if the valuation continues to come down? And whether you might lean on the balance sheet to do so just given the track record of having run a valuation-sensitive buyback program?

凱西，如果我回到 2018 年，當時該集團大量拋售，諾斯羅普在回購股票方面非常積極。如果我沒記錯的話，我想你甚至發起了一個 ASR。所以我很好奇，如果估值繼續下降，這是否仍然是你今年的劇本？鑑於運行對估值敏感的回購計劃的記錄，您是否可以依靠資產負債表來這樣做？

Yes. Well, as you note, we have used ASRs as the tool in the past. And as we indicated in the call today, we do plan to put more than 100% of our free cash flow back into the deployment to shareholders. The fact that our valuation is down, really, we don't try to time the market per se. But we do think about that as we are kind of weighing our options for capital deployment this year, and we do have the flexibility to increase share repurchase from our original plan. So that is something we're actively contemplating.

是的。好吧，正如您所注意到的，我們過去曾使用 ASR 作為工具。正如我們在今天的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們確實計劃將超過 100% 的自由現金流重新投入到對股東的部署中。事實上，我們的估值確實下降了，我們並沒有試圖對市場本身進行計時。但我們確實考慮到了這一點，因為我們正在權衡今年的資本配置選擇，而且我們確實可以靈活地從最初的計劃中增加股票回購。所以這是我們正在積極考慮的事情。

Our next question comes from George Shapiro with Shapiro.

我們的下一個問題來自 George Shapiro with Shapiro。

Dave, I had one for you. In the operating income discussion in space, you had a big gain, $45 million charge. And you said it was all -- the $96 million gain only partially offset the lower EACs. When I look at the K for the year, you had minus $38 million in space versus $134 million last year. So if you kind of just discuss what happened in the quarter and just why such a significant change year-over-year?

戴夫，我有一個給你。在太空營業收入討論中，您獲得了 4500 萬美元的巨大收益。你說這就是全部 - 9600 萬美元的收益僅部分抵消了較低的 EAC。當我查看今年的 K 時，你的空間價值為負 3800 萬美元，而去年為 1.34 億美元。因此，如果您只是討論本季度發生的事情以及為什麼同比發生如此重大的變化？

Sure. Well, that's a great question, George. Clearly, that's an indication of the broader macroeconomic conditions that we in our industry, and frankly, most other industries we're facing in 2022, and in our business, it impacted the level of net EAC adjustments in really each of our sectors in different ways. And you see it acutely there in space, as you mentioned. A number of those EAC adjustments were in the fourth quarter. And that kind of -- the net of all those puts and takes to include the inventory adjustment on a new commercial product line that you mentioned was another downside in Q4. Those were roughly offset by the upside from the land exchange transaction in space. So a number of puts and takes, but when you net it all out, not much overall impact on the space margin rate in Q4 or for the year.

當然。嗯，這是一個很好的問題，喬治。顯然，這表明我們行業以及我們在 2022 年面臨的大多數其他行業以及我們的業務中更廣泛的宏觀經濟狀況，它實際上影響了我們不同行業中每個行業的淨 EAC 調整水平方法。正如你提到的，你在太空中敏銳地看到它。其中一些 EAC 調整是在第四季度進行的。那種 - 所有這些投入和投入的淨額包括你提到的新商業產品線的庫存調整是第四季度的另一個不利因素。這些被太空土地交換交易的好處大致抵消了。所以有一些投入和投入，但是當你把它全部扣除時，對第四季度或全年的空間保證金率的總體影響不大。

We're forecasting a rate just above that level that we operated at in '22 as we now look at '23. And as I noted earlier, something in the mid-9s is our kind of going forward expectation for '23 margin rate in space.

我們預測的利率將略高於我們在 22 年的水平，因為我們現在看 23 年。正如我之前指出的那樣，9 年代中期的一些事情是我們對 23 空間保證金率的未來預期。

But Dave, it's still unusual to see negative EACs for the year. So I was just wondering, are there any specifics that you could point to maybe was for the year or just for this quarter?

但是戴夫，今年出現負 EAC 仍然很不尋常。所以我只是想知道，您是否可以指出可能是今年或本季度的具體細節？

No single item was a driver of that of much more significance than any other. I think that alone, George, is an indication of the fact that this was more in line with broader macroeconomic pressures as opposed to any performance issue or contract issue in any particular program. This was broader and more widespread, but not significant on any one program in and of itself. And again, I think really just indicative here of the environment we were operating in, in a business with a lot of programs, a lot of new growth in recent years to be excited about.

沒有任何一個項目比其他任何項目都更重要。喬治，我認為僅此一項就表明，這更符合更廣泛的宏觀經濟壓力，而不是任何特定計劃中的任何績效問題或合同問題。這更廣泛、更普遍，但對任何一個項目本身都沒有意義。再說一次，我認為這真的只是表明我們所處的環境，在一個有很多項目的企業中，近年來有很多新的增長令人興奮。

Okay. And then just one general one for you, Kathy. I mean, with the better sales growth you're guiding to in '23, a result of the budget or new awards won or both? And then also, with 16% sales growth in Q4 and outlay is likely to grow 7% or 8% in '23 based on the budget investment authority of 15. Why does the growth rate slow that much in '23? I mean why wouldn't it be higher than what you're suggesting?

好的。然後只有一個一般的給你，凱西。我的意思是，隨著您在 23 年實現更好的銷售增長，是預算的結果還是贏得的新獎項或兩者兼而有之？然後，根據 15 年的預算投資授權，第四季度的銷售額增長 16%，23 年的支出可能增長 7% 或 8%。為什麼 23 年的增長率放緩那麼多？我的意思是為什麼它不會高於你的建議？

Yes. So as we noted throughout 2022, if we could break loose supplier deliveries and continue to improve labor trends, we could deliver accelerated growth. And fourth quarter exemplified a path to doing just that. As we come into 2023 with that momentum, the same holds, we are confident enough in our sales expectations as we sit here today to raise them above what we had said in October, largely because we are seeing those improvements in labor in particular.

是的。因此，正如我們在整個 2022 年所指出的那樣，如果我們能夠打破鬆散的供應商交付並繼續改善勞動力趨勢，我們就可以實現加速增長。第四季度舉例說明了做到這一點的途徑。當我們以這種勢頭進入 2023 年時，同樣如此，我們對我們今天坐在這裡的銷售預期有足夠的信心，可以將其提高到我們 10 月份所說的水平之上，這主要是因為我們特別看到了勞動力方面的改善。

And if those trends continue, we would have opportunity to even further accelerate growth in 2024. The budget does not play into this. We had assumed strong budget growth. It, of course, came to fruition in the '23 budget, and we continue to believe the '24 President's budget will also show growth.

如果這些趨勢繼續下去，我們將有機會在 2024 年進一步加速增長。預算不會影響這一點。我們假設預算增長強勁。當然，它在 23 年的預算中取得了成果，我們仍然相信 24 年總統的預算也將顯示增長。

Norma, we have time for one more question.

諾瑪，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Strauss 與 Barclays 的對話。

Great. A lot of discussion on B-21 and EMD and LRIP. Just -- how should we think about what happens to AS margins over the next couple of years as I assume EMD flans out or starts to come down where you've been taking positive adjustments and LRIP ramps up from here?

偉大的。關於 B-21、EMD 和 LRIP 的大量討論。只是 - 我們應該如何考慮未來幾年 AS 利潤率會發生什麼情況，因為我假設 EMD 會出現或開始下降，而你一直在進行積極調整，而 LRIP 從這裡開始上升？

David, I'll start on that one. Our margin rate was particularly high in AS in 2022. That was driven in part by the strong performance on those EMD profit pickups associated with anticipated incentives on that part of the program. We projected a 10% or so level for AS margins in '23 and expect that, that's a reasonable kind of planning assumption at this point for '23. And as we look forward beyond that, a lot of the factors that are working into the '23 estimate would be those that we'd expect to continue beyond '23. So of course, we'll update you over time.

大衛，我將從那個開始。 2022 年，我們在 AS 的保證金率特別高。這在一定程度上是由於與該部分計劃的預期激勵措施相關的 EMD 利潤回升的強勁表現。我們預計 23 年的 AS 利潤率水平為 10% 左右，並預計這是 23 年此時的一種合理規劃假設。當我們展望未來時，許多正在影響 23 年估計的因素將是我們預計將在 23 年之後繼續存在的因素。所以當然，我們會隨著時間的推移更新你。

You mentioned B-21 EMD program will -- a portion of the contract will continue for a number of years on LRIP. We haven't baked any margin or cash in that part of the program into our multiyear outlook or our '23 guide. So we think that 10% level is the right way to think about kind of the underlying margin rate in AS in the near term.

你提到 B-21 EMD 計劃將——部分合同將在 LRIP 上持續多年。我們沒有將計劃的那一部分的任何保證金或現金納入我們的多年展望或我們的 '23 指南。因此，我們認為 10% 的水平是考慮 AS 近期內潛在保證金率類型的正確方法。

Okay. And Kathy, maybe your thoughts on what bookings could look like this year, what you're anticipating for the book to bill this year?

好的。凱西，也許你對今年的預訂情況有什麼看法，你對這本書今年的收費有何期待？

Yes, David. So we had projected book-to-bill to be light in 2022, and it turned out to be 1.07. We are projecting it to be light again in 2023. I've noted before, we look at this over a multiyear period. We've been running at 1.2 for the last 4 years aggregated across those 4 years. So we still expect to be well over 1 when we think about a 5-year aggregated book-to-bill, but we do expect 2023 to be less than 1.

是的，大衛。因此，我們預計 2022 年的訂單出貨比會很低，結果是 1.07。我們預計它會在 2023 年再次變亮。我之前已經註意到，我們會在多年的時間裡對此進行研究。在過去 4 年中，我們一直以 1.2 的速度運行，這 4 年的總和。因此，當我們考慮 5 年的總訂單出貨比時，我們仍然預計會遠遠超過 1，但我們確實預計 2023 年會低於 1。

All right. Great. Thanks. Kathy, over to you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。凱西，交給你了。

So look, 2022 was another year of outstanding performance by the Northrop Grumman team, and I want to thank them. As we reflected on our call today, we're even more encouraged with the opportunities for continued growth and value creation for our company in 2023 and beyond. So hopefully, that conveyed to you. Thanks again for joining our call today.

所以看，2022 年又是諾斯羅普格魯曼團隊表現出色的一年，我要感謝他們。當我們回顧今天的電話會議時，我們對公司在 2023 年及以後持續增長和創造價值的機會感到更加鼓舞。所以希望，這傳達給了你。再次感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人，祝你有美好的一天。